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Camp of the Saints

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From Gulf News:

DR Congo migrants in limbo as Costa Rica, Panama reject them

Published: 13:28 April 16, 2016 Gulf News

SAN JOSE: Around 200 African migrants, most of them from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), were in limbo between Costa Rica and Panama on Friday, with both Central American nations refusing them entry.

Costa Rica detained them on Thursday when its northern neighbour Nicaragua turned them back at its border as they sought to cross on their way to try to get to the United States. …

The migrants protested on Friday on the Costa Rican side of the border with Panama to be allowed to continue their journey to America.

From Al-Jazeera:

600 Africans stranded after traveling to Costa Rica

Government warns of a possible looming crisis as it blocks hundreds of people from moving forward en route to US.

John Holman | 21 Apr 2016 11:28 GMT | Latin America, Costa Rica, Migrants

More than 600 people from several African countries are stranded after crossing the Atlantic by boat to Brazil and then passing through Colombia and Panama before getting stuck in Costa Rica en route to the United States.

With more arriving every day – so far from seven countries on the continent – to the small border town of Paso Canoas, both the Red Cross and the government have warned it could turn into a crisis.

The whole journey took the people four months.

“It’s been bad, a lot of police in Colombia, Panama asking for money,” Youleyni, a pregnant woman from the Democratic Republic of Congo, who travelled with her husband, told Al Jazeera.

“We haven’t had money for the bus and had to walk a long way.”

Wilson Camara, identified as a leader of the group, told Al Jazeera they chose the arduous route because it had become very hard to get to Europe.

“There is a problem of terrorism and the borders are closed [in Europe] and so it is difficult. We, Africans, can’t get in. America’s easier to get to and seek refuge,” Camara said. …

The Red Cross said it was trying to help, but was worried about what would happen if the route through Costa Rica became a new mass migration trail.

“They could be changing their route from Europe and going to America and so we could have a humanitarian crisis if we don’t manage this right,” Luis Jimenez, a Red Cross representative in Costa Rica, said.

The Guardian has more:

“This phenomenon has been building for years,” Millman added. “The number of Africans making this trip and asking for asylum every year at the US border is in the thousands, so this 600 is just a traffic jam. You see these kind of agglomerations every now and again.”

Africans typically take planes to Ecuador or Brazil, or occasionally stow away inside cargo ships, before making their way up through several countries in Latin America to the US border, where they claim asylum, Millman said….

Costa Rica has typically taken a laissez-faire attitude to migrants crossing its territory, but may have now decided to shift policy because Nicaragua recently began to send people back to Costa Rican soil.

What’s currently going on is that the leftist presidente of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, out of solidarity with the Castro Brothers, has shut his southern border to keep out the swarm of Cubans trying to get to the American border before America wakes up and reforms its dry foot / wet foot immigration privilege for Cubans.

So, a Camp of the Saints is building up among Africans caught up with the blockade of Cubans, which could set a publicity precedent if the Africans are allowed to proceed en masse.

Last September, I wrote in Taki’s Magazine in a column entitled “Gradually and Then Suddenly” about forward planning in the Smartphone Age for what will likely become an ever growing number of probes against America’s borders, searching for weaknesses that could then be quickly overwhelmed by flash mobs, in the mode of last year’s hegira to Europe.

Could a Camp of the Saints happen in the U.S.? Might we see a sudden rush by land, sea, or air?

It already has happened, multiple times. It could easily happen again, and on a vastly larger scale.

As you’ll recall, the Obama administration set off a race for the border in 2014 by hinting that Central Americans were welcome as long as they mouthed the right words.

… For Europeans, the United Nations’ little-publicized 2015 population forecast is horrifying: The Middle East will grow from 481 million today to 750 million in 2050 and on to 937 million in 2100. Worse, the U.N. sees sub-Saharan Africa growing from 962 million today to 2,132 million in 2050 and on to an apocalyptic 3,935 million in 2100.

…In the past, impoverished South Americans have tended to illegally immigrate to the Southern Cone countries of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. Brazil, as you know, is the country of the future and always will be. In this century, Brazil seemed to be getting its act together. But that turned out to be just a mask for the traditional orgy of corruption.

… What are the odds that at some point something will go wrong in Latin America that interested parties in the U.S. will try to define as justifying our own Camp of the Saints? Last year, the Obama administration tried to pass off Central American gang violence as justification for letting in unaccompanied youths. Next year, it could be an earthquake, hurricane, civil strife, recession, inflation, sexism, homophobia, or transgender insensitivity.

And for that matter, if the population of Africa keeps doubling—because encouraging Africans to show some restraint and responsibility is racist—what’s to stop a flash mob from coming from Africa? Sure, it sounds implausible today with Africans currently flocking toward Italy, but keep in mind that Australia had boat people coming all the way from Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, which is as far from Darwin, Australia, as Dakar, Senegal, is from New York.

This is not a major threat at the moment. But the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.

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E.U. naval forces arresting Somali pirates in Indian Ocean

One of the more curious aspects of the coverage of “Europe’s migrant crisis” is the apparent assumption that Europe couldn’t possibly do anything to keep Asians and Africans from crossing the Mediterranean because that would require naval forces, and whoever heard of Europe having boats in the water?

But European navies not only exist, they are currently policing the Indian Ocean to keep down Somali pirates. The E.U. has Operation Atalanta, while European nations participate as well in the U.S. headed Combined Task Force 150. Here’s Wikipedia’s description of the E.U.’s operation

Operation Atalanta:

Operation Atalanta, also known as European Union Naval Force Somalia (EU-NAVFOR-ATALANTA), is a current counter-piracy military operation at sea off the Horn of Africa and in the Western Indian Ocean, that is the first undertaken by the European Union Naval Force. …

The following vessels have, among others, been committed to the Operation as of 25 February 2015.[25][26]

Belgium Karel Doorman-class frigate BNS Louise-Marie (F931), Belgium[27][28]
Belgium Karel Doorman-class frigate BMS Leopold I (F930), Belgium
Germany Brandenburg-class frigate FGS Brandenburg (F215), Germany[29]
Germany Brandenburg-class frigate FGS Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (F218), Germany
Germany Brandenburg-class frigate FGS Schleswig-Holstein (F216), Germany[30]
Germany Brandenburg-class frigate FGS Bayern (F217), Germany
Germany Bremen-class frigate FGS Rheinland-Pfalz (F209), Germany[29]
Germany Bremen-class frigate FGS Köln (F211), Germany[31]
Germany Bremen-class frigate FGS Niedersachsen (F208), Germany[32]
Germany Bremen-class frigate FGS Lübeck (F214), Germany[33]
Germany Sachsen-class frigate FGS Hamburg (F220)[34][35]
Germany Rhön-class tanker FGS Rhön (A1443), Germany[36]
Germany Berlin-class replenishment ship FGS Berlin (A1411), Germany

Netherlands De Zeven Provinciën-class frigate HNLMS De Ruyter (F804), Netherlands
Netherlands De Zeven Provinciën-class frigate HNLMS Evertsen (F805), Netherlands[37]
Netherlands Karel Doorman-class frigate HNLMS Van Speijk (F828), Netherlands
Netherlands Karel Doorman-class frigate HNLMS Van Amstel (F831), Netherlands[38]
Netherlands Replenishment oiler HNLMS Amsterdam (A836), Netherlands[39]
Netherlands Rotterdam class amphibious transport dock HNLMS Johan de Witt (L801), Netherlands[40]
Netherlands Holland-class offshore patrol vessels HNLMS Groningen (P843), Netherlands
Italy Maestrale-class frigate ITS Maestrale (F570), Italy
Italy Maestrale-class frigate ITS Libeccio (F572), Italy[41]
Italy Maestrale-class frigate ITS Zeffiro (F577), Italy[42][43]
Italy Maestrale-class frigate ITS Espero (F576), Italy[44]
Italy Maestrale-class frigate ITS Scirocco (F573), Italy[45]
Italy San Giorgio-class amphibious transport dock ITS San Giusto (L9894), Italy[46]
Italy Horizon-class frigate ITS Andrea Doria (D553), Italy[47]
France helicopter cruiser FS Jeanne d’Arc (R97), France[48]
France Mistral-class amphibious assault ship BPC Tonnerre (L9014), France
France Georges Leygues-class frigate FASM Jean de Vienne (D643), France
France Georges Leygues-class frigate FASM Georges Leygues (D640), France[48]
France La Fayette-class frigate FLF Aconit (F713), France[49][50]
France La Fayette-class frigate FLF Guépratte (F714), France[51]
France La Fayette-class frigate FLF La Fayette (F710), France[52]
France La Fayette-class frigate FLF Surcouf (F711), France[53][54]
France Tourville-class frigate FASM De Grasse (D612)[55]
France Floréal-class frigate FS Floréal (F730), France[56][57]
France Floréal-class frigate FS Nivôse (F732), France[25][58]
France Cassard-class frigate FAA Jean Bart (D615), France[59]
France D’Estienne d’Orves-class frigate FS Jacoubet (F794), France[60][61]
France Durance-class tanker FS Marne (A630), France[62]
France Foudre-class landing platform dock FS Siroco (L9012), France[63]
New Zealand Lockheed P-3 Orion P-3K2 Orion, New Zealand
Portugal Vasco da Gama-class frigate NRP Vasco da Gama (F330)[64][65]
Portugal Vasco da Gama-class frigate NRP Álvares Cabral (F331)[66]
Portugal Lockheed P-3 Orion P-3C Papa, Portugal[67]
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Santa Maria (F81), Spain
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Victoria (F82), Spain[68]
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Numancia (F83), Spain
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Navarra (F85), Spain
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Canarias (F86), Spain
Spain Santa Maria-class frigate SPS Reina Sofía (F84), Spain[69]
Spain Álvaro de Bazán-class frigate SPS Blas de Lezo (F103), Spain
Spain Álvaro de Bazán-class frigate SPS Mendez Nuñez (F104), Spain
Spain Descubierta-class corvette SPS Infanta Elena (P76), Spain
Spain Descubierta-class corvette SPS Infanta Cristina (P77), Spain[70]
Spain Descubierta-class corvette SPS Cazadora (P78), Spain
Spain Descubierta-class corvette SPS Vencedora (P79), Spain[71]
Spain Galicia-class landing platform dock SPS Galicia (L51), Spain[72]
Spain Replenishment oiler SPS Patiño (A14), Spain[73][74]
Spain Meteoro-class offshore patrol boat SPS Relámpago (P43), Spain[75]
Spain Lockheed P-3 Orion P-3M Orion, Spain
United Kingdom Type 22-class frigate HMS Cumberland (F85), United Kingdom
United Kingdom Type 23-class frigate HMS Northumberland (F238), United Kingdom
United Kingdom Bay-class landing ship RFA Lyme Bay (L3007), United Kingdom
Greece Hydra-class frigate HS Salamis (F455) Greece[76][77]
Greece Hydra-class frigate HS Psara (F454) Greece
Greece Elli-class frigate HS Elli (F450), Greece[78]
Greece Elli-class frigate HS Adrias (F459), Greece[79][80]
Sweden Stockholm-class corvette HSwMS Stockholm (K11), Sweden
Sweden Stockholm-class corvette HSwMS Malmö (K12), Sweden[81]
Sweden Akademik Shuleykin-class auxiliary vessel HSwMS Trossö (A264), Sweden
Sweden ocean patrol vessel HMS Carlskrona (P04), Sweden[82]
Norway Fridtjof Nansen-class frigate HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen (F310), Norway – (Non EU member contribution)
Finland Pohjanmaa class minelayer FNS Pohjanmaa, Finland[83][84]
Romania Type 22-class frigate Regele Ferdinand (221), Romania
Ukraine Krivak-class frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy (U130), Ukraine

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Not strong enough to break the blockade: German High Seas Fleet, Jutland, 5/31/1916

From the translation in Gates of Vienna of an interview with Thilo Sarrazin, German central banker and author of the 2011 mega-seller Germany Abolishes Itself.

The translated interview from Die Zeit:

Thilo Sarrazin: “You Are Welcome to Ask Me What I Would Do if I Were Head of Frontex”[1]

Interview with Thilo Sarrazin by Tina Hildebrandt and Heinrich Wefing

September 13, 2015

Die Zeit: Except for perhaps North Korea, there are no border controls that function,

Thilo Sarrazin: … Africa, which has 1.2 billion people now and will have 4.4 billion by year 2100, is not a monkey on their back.

Die Zeit: Aside from the fact that we do not believe that billions of people will start out from Africa — if they did, no fence could keep them out.

Thilo Sarrazin: Yeah, you should study a little military history. The British managed in WWI — without radar and, until 1916 — without aerial reconnaissance, it sealed the entire North Sea against blockade runners.

Really not strong enough to break a blockade

Feel free to ask me what I would do if I were head of Frontex and had the political and financial means.

Die Zeit: So what would you do?

Thilo Sarrazin: I would capture every ship. Even if it were a not merchant ship, I would set its passengers ashore at the exact spot on the African coast where they started and destroy the boat. You may be sure — after six weeks, no more of them would start out and there will be no more boat refugees.

Die Zeit: Let’s think that through. You have a militarily secured, impenetrable border around the Schengen area. What do you do with war refugees from Syria?

Thilo Sarrazin: War refugees from Iraq and Syria should for then most part be accommodated near their homeland, that is in Turkey, northern Iraq and Jordan. And then, when the war is over, they can most easily return.

Die Zeit: That is, we should take no war refugees into Europe?

Thilo Sarrazin: I believe, to put it positively, war refugees should be accommodated near the location of he conflict.

Die Zeit: And if that overwhelms these countries? The situation in Lebanon is explosive, Jordan is extremely fragile, war against the IS prevails in Iraq…

Thilo Sarrazin: Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan are the neighbor states. And there are the Gulf States or Saudi Arabia which are stinking rich and have taken not one foreign Arab and co-religionist. They have the primary responsibility to keep order in their region.

The Australians and Israelis have shown that the naval equivalent of boots on the ground — boats in the water — works.

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From the ominously entitled Slaughter & Rees Report issued by Dartmouth’s Tuck MBA school:

Slaughter & Rees Report: How Refugees Can Revive Europe’s Economies


Continuing to stream into and across Europe, the refugees risking their lives for hope confront the continent’s policymakers with a more prosaic question: What will the refugees mean for the economies of individual countries and the broader European economy?

A recent report by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse contains a refreshingly well-reasoned answer: the refugees, far from being an economic drag, will deliver a long-term economic stimulus to the region.

… A central driver of the continent’s economic woes is its demographics. Consider this: only three of the European Union’s 28 member states—France, Ireland, and Sweden—have birthrates high enough to maintain the size of their working-age populations. Seven of the world’s ten oldest countries are in Europe (Germany is 2nd; Italy, 4th; Portugal, 5th; Greece, 6th; Bulgaria, 7th; Austria, 8th; and Spain, 10th). And last year the population of seven European countries actually declined.

All this adds up to “demographic suicide,” as the European Central Bank’s vice president put it recently. As countries experience a lower ratio of those working to those in retirement, along with little economic growth, their fiscal burdens can grow quickly and without clear end. …

But as the Credit Suisse report demonstrates, the refugees flowing into Europe can help reverse its demographic challenge. They are projected to increase the EU’s population over the next five years by five million people—about 1.5 percent of the region’s total population. In purely economic terms, it helps that most of the migrants are young and male. More than half of those entering Germany are men between the ages of 18 and 34, and more than 75 percent are of working age. Many are also well-educated. Among the Syrians in Sweden, more than 40 percent have completed at least an upper secondary education, reports the Financial Times.

Nothing says Quality Education like a Syrian high school diploma.

Thus the conclusion by Credit Suisse that the impact of Europe’s migrants will be modestly positive through 2023, increasing the continent’s average annual growth rate to 1.3 percent.

In addition to providing a demographic boost to Europe, the refugees are also likely to provide a dynamic boost as well. The decision to uproot oneself and one’s family requires a degree of enterprise and risk-taking that frequently translates into the economic realm. … It is clear that the refugees can enrich the economic and cultural fabric of countries across Europe. It is up to the continent’s policymakers to ensure that the refugees are given the opportunity to do so.

Tuition at the Tuck School of Business to hear this kind of incisive analysis is $64,200 per year, but with room, board, and various fees, Tuck totals $99,655 annually. So, you get $345 change back on your Woodrow Wilson. Over the two years of your MBA program, that’s $690 in change on your two $100,000 bills.

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Following up my review last week in Taki’s Magazine of Submission, Michel Houellebecq’s novel about a future Islamic takeover of France, here are some other reviews:


- Noah Millman argues that Submission is not satire but Houellebecq’s personal fantasy of arranged polygamous marriage. But why can’t it be both at the same time? Top writers do more than one thing at once. Houellebecq has devoted many years to developing an image of himself as a distressing person. A novel explaining that he’s the kind of opportunist who would collaborate with a Muslim takeover is not exactly good PR for a Muslim takeover.

- Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld argues that Houellebecq’s hero has a point.

- Aaron MacLean in the Washington Free Beacon: “At Least It’s an Ethos.”

- In the New York Times, Norwegian novelist Karl Ove Knausgaard offers a characteristically long review of Submission. Knausgaard, the author of a six-volume autobiography entitled My Struggle, is one of the leading lights, along with Houellebecq and the late David Foster Wallace, of the Hapless White Guy genre in recent literary fiction that has served as a sort of covert White Male Pride movement.

Knausgaard looks like Houellebecq being played by Brad Pitt

The late John Updike was blithely unconcerned that many of the more literary members of Official Victim Groups feel oppressed by the fact that white men continue to make up a wildly disproportionate fraction of the most talented writers. Updike’s combination of overwhelming talent and well-adjusted Middle Americanness was particularly enraging to the rising powers.

The new generation, in contrast, has been acutely aware of being hated for who they are, with varying impacts: defiance in the case of Houellebecq, conflictedness and depression in the case of poor Wallace.

Update: From The Local:

Knausgård savages the ‘Cyclops’ Swedes
Published: 20 May 2015 15:25 GMT+02:00

Norwegian literary star Karl Ove Knausgård has launched an extraordinary attack on the Swedes, damning them as a race of narrow-minded “Cyclops” who cannot tolerate ambiguity, have no understanding of literature, and are “full of hate and fear”.

The bitter 3,000 word rant, published in the Dagens Nyheter newspaper, is a response to an article in the same paper by the feminist Ebba Witt-Brattström, which described Knausgård’s first novel ‘Out of the World’, just now translated into Swedish, as a type of “literary paedophilia”.

But it also mercilessly tears apart what Knausgård sees as Swedes’ black and white approach to race, immigration, gender, and sex, lampooning the nation’s tendency to repress complex or difficult ideas, and its fear of moral uncertainty.

“The reason there’s so much hate among the Cyclops and so much terror I believe is simple,” he writes. “The Cyclops don’t want to know about that part of reality which isn’t how they think it should be.”

Knausgård has now lived in Sweden for some 13 years, moving to Stockholm in 2002 when he began a relationship with the Swedish poet Linda Boström, after which they moved first to Malmö, and then to a village in the Skåne countryside.

But he does not appear to have learnt to love his adopted countrymen.

In his article, he attacks Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven for describing the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats as a “neo-fascist party”.

“Everyone knows it isn’t true, but that doesn’t matter because if they think differently on such a sensitive question, they must be fascists,” he argues.

“The Cyclops believe that their picture of reality is the same for everyone, and if there’s anywhere which doesn’t agree, like for example their neighbours Denmark, they get angry with the Danes.”

Within hours of Knaugård’s article being published, Jonas Gardell, a Swedish comic novelist and high profile cultural figure, had attacked him in Expressen newspaper for “suddenly and without warning defending the Sweden Democrats”.

He complained that Knausgård had called the Sweden Democrats a ”legitimate” party, and mocked Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven for calling them neo-fascists.

It’s clear that Knausgård doesn’t approve of the Swedish consensus on immigration, but he is perhaps at his most offensive when he gets onto the Swedes’ relationship with literature.

My impression is that as political correctness increasingly clamps down on free expression, more of the creative talent is showing up on the right. It’s hard to tell for sure because it can be a career killer for these guys to be too explicit, but that seems like the trend.

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A key part of imposing the Camp of the Saints on Europe is to demoralize Europeans with the argument that it’s impossible for European countries to maintain land and sea borders: Whaddaya whaddaya? Dontcha know, the migrant always gets through!

Two obvious counter-examples, however, are Israel and Australia. Israel is tricky to demonize for obvious reasons, especially in America, but demoralizing Australians into giving up their quite effective system that keeps out boat people is straightforward. White Australians are evil and therefore deserve to lose their country.

The chief salient of the offensive at the moment is the vague story of a Somalia boat lady called Abyan (pseudonym) who has gotten pregnant while interned on Nauru. She claims to have been raped, but won’t give any details of the alleged rape to allow her story to be factchecked.

Over the last two weeks, the New York Times has devoted five articles, plus part of a sixth, to this one undocumented story, apparently on the hope that this case will shame white Australians into trashing Australia’s border controls:

Lawyer Tried to Keep Somali Rape Victim in Australia

keeping her in Australia before the government suddenly flew her to Nauru without providing the abortion she had requested. The case of the 23-year-old woman, known by the pseudonym Abyan, has amplified criticisms
WorldPrint Headline: “Lawyer Tried to Keep Somali Rape Victim in Australia”

Asylum Seeker’s Rape Claims Overshadow Australia’s Bid for U.N. Rights Body

policy of turning back refugee boats and holding asylum seekers in prison camps in poor South Pacific island nations such as Nauru and Papua New Guinea has undermined any goodwill. Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Malcolm
WorldPrint Headline: “Asylum Seeker’s Rape Claims Overshadow Australia’s Bid for U.N. Rights Body”

Australia Debates Asylum Seeker’s Fate
A pregnant Somali asylum seeker, known as Abyan, has become a focal point in the continuing dispute over Australia’s refugee policies.
WorldPrint Headline: “Australia Debates Asylum Seeker’s Fate”

Australia’s Migrant Rules Criticized Over Abyan, a Somali Asylum Seeker

tried to reach Australia in a rickety boat that was intercepted at sea two years ago. She ended up in a detention center on Nauru, one of two remote Pacific islands where Australia sends asylum seekers. Her lawyers say she was raped WorldPrint Headline: “Australia’s Migrant Rules Criticized Over Abyan, a Somali Asylum Seeker”Australia to Fly Somali Refugee From Nauru for Abortion CANBERRA, Australia — A Somali refugee who alleged she was raped in Nauru will be flown to Australia for a second time to potentially have an abortion, Australia’s government said Wednesday, a day after the United Nations’ human
WorldPrint Headline: “Australia to Fly Somali Refugee From Nauru for Abortion”
Tony Abbott, Ousted Australian Leader, Urges Europe to Take Hard Line on Migrants
offshore camps has dropped much less. More than 600 people are still being detained on the small Pacific island nation of Nauru, and more than 900 remain in a camp on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. As public criticism of the
WorldPrint Headline: “Tony Abbott, Ousted Australian Leader, Urges Europe to Take Hard Line on Migrants”

Of course, if a single criminal (?) case should be used to determine the demographic fate of a continent, what about this story of the German sex criminal recently arrested for murdering two migrant boys? From CBS News:

Violence against migrants in Germany spikes

… Last week, a German man was arrested for kidnapping and slaying a 4-year-old and a 6-year-old migrant. The suspect, whose last name wasn’t released in line with German privacy laws, told authorities he had killed the 4-year-old a day after abducting him from the capital’s central registration center for migrants, the Berlin prosecutor said.

By the logic of the story of the pregnant Somali, this should be grounds for changing Dr. Merkel’s policy: instead, Germany must protect defenseless foreign children from decadent Teutons by keeping the Muslim children safe from German pedophiles in their own part of the world. If a claim of rape on distant Nauru is enough to morally discredit Australia’s policy, then migrant boys being abducted from refugee centers in Germany’s capital should more than discredit Dr. Merkel’s policy. Who will think of the children?

But, somehow, I don’t think we’ll see that logic occur to many.

Funny how that works.

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With my review currently up in Taki’s Magazine of Loren Stein’s terrific translation in English of Michel Houellebecq’s Submission, I think it’s timely to repost my version of Houellebecq’s scenario for how the the second place Muslim finisher in the French Presidential election of 2022 would form a grand coalition to defeat the first place National Front.

In Houellebecq’s telling, by offering to let the Socialists and Sarkozyites have the important ministries of Foreign Affairs and Finance, while the Muslim Brotherhood contented itself merely with Education, the wise and moderate Mohammed Ben Abbes disarms French Establishment concerns about the Islamists being imprudent. On January 8, 2015, the day after the Charlie Hebdo slaughter, I posted “How Plausible Is Houellebecq’s Submission?

I don’t see Muslims getting their hands on education policy right away. White people care a lot about their children’s educations. On the other hand, Muslim politicians in France getting their hands on immigration policy would be the more likely camel’s nose in the tent, as it were. After all, immigration policy is increasingly seen in the respectable world as a subject for moral grandstanding, while education is an area for nuance. …

Houellebecq, as he pointed out to an interviewer, largely left immigration policy out of Submission.

To make this more historically plausible, however, I’d stretch this political process out into a two stage process taking place over five years across two presidential elections, and combine Submission with Jean Raspail’s 1973 novel The Camp of the Saints (and Bertolt Brecht’s 1953 poem The Solution).

In 2022, Marine Le Pen easily wins the first round with, say, 40% of the vote. The mediagenic Muslim party candidate, who finishes fourth with 9%, announces that he will advise his followers to not vote in the final election, unless the coalition of Establishment parties give him control of one area of policy — but not of education as in the author’s scenario, but of immigration and citizenship as a moral rebuke to the anti-immigrant hatefulness of the National Front.

The establishment / Islamist coalition ekes out a 51-49 win over the National Front, helped along by some mob violence and election tampering. A secular centrist Frenchman becomes president. Marine Le Pen retires as head of the National Front in favor of her even more popular and charismatic daughter, who instantly becomes the frontrunner for 2027. The Internet is full of observations that Likud lost eight straight general elections before becoming the dominant party in Israel.

In desperation to stop the next onslaught of the FN in 2027, the combined establishment parties accede to the suggestion of their most brilliant young politician, Mohammed Ben Abbes, that to prevent the people from electing a new government in 2027, the government must elect a new people.

A media campaign of white guilt over French colonialism and the Crusades is ginned up. A ship loaded with illegal immigrants founders spectacularly in the Mediterranean on television.

Looking back from the fall of 2015, I’d say that’s not a bad guess, but the reality turned out that the precipitating media moment for The Campo of the Saints was not a lot of people drowning, but one child drowning. As Stalin supposedly said, “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

A new law is rammed through offering, in effect, open borders for four years to all countries victimized by French imperialism and the Crusades (in the fine print, populous Egypt is included for having suffered the indignity of the French building the Suez Canal). A one year residency requirement for voting is introduced. A senile Pope Francis issues an encyclical denouncing immigration restriction as the great Satan of the 21st Century. A few false flag operations whip up a frenzy of hatred against the FN.

The Camp of the Saints of course proves a vast disaster for France, which only intensifies establishment anger at dissidents for pointing this out. Muslim and/or African car-be-ques appear to be headed out of control, but Ben Abbes demonstrates an impressive ability to turn them off at his command. In desperation, the Socialists and Sarkozyites turn to Ben Abbes as the one man who can permanently end the FN menace, while also calming the street violence spilling from the banlieues to the arrondissements. Of course, after Ben Abbes takes out the FN, the French insiders reason, he can easily be squeezed out himself.

And so on January 30, 2027, a few months before the scheduled election, the sitting president resigns in favor of the temporary expedient of Ben Abbes as President.

Several weeks later the Louvre burns down. A retarded white soccer hooligan is arrested nearby holding a can of gasoline.

FN leaders are rounded up. A North Korean computer hack reveals to the world the names, addresses, and license plate numbers of FN voters, some of whom suffer rough justice for their hereditary guilt stretching back to the Crusades.

NATO leaders invoke Article 5 as applying to NATO member (since 2009) France and applying to an attack from inside the country by nativists. President George P. Bush, at the suggestion of U.S. national security advisor Prince Bandar, deploys the 82nd Airborne to the NATO base at Avord in central France to back the Ben Abbes government in maintaining law and order. Secretary of State Chelsea Clinton announces, “Lafayette, we are here!” as the U.S. sets up drone patrols over rural France.

In a magnanimous gesture praised in world capitals, President Ben Abbes announces he is not delaying the scheduled election. Although in preventive detention, after the first hour of vote counting in the primary round in April 2027, Mademoiselle Le Pen appears to be headed toward a smashing majority, making her President without a runoff. But a computer outage takes vote counting off the air for the rest of the evening and when the count resumes in the wee hours, it’s found that she only won 48% and must face two weeks later Ben Abbes, who is then anointed the defender of all that is right and holy in the multicultural modern era.

And thus we can pick up again with the story line in Submission.

Having finally read Submission, however, I can now see the genius of Houellebecq’s less plausible, more quietist version in which Islamist rule is accepted by the French people as a sort of Streamlined Catholicism. Houellebecq threads the needle of not offending too badly either Islamists, of the kind that murdered the Charlie Hebdo cartoonists, or of the French leftist cultural gatekeepers, while creating an insidiously subversive fable.

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Mystery child tells Finnish PM: “I look big, but I’m 17.”

From the New York Times:

Migrant Children Arrive Alone and Settle In Uneasily


Many of Europe’s new mystery children are boys ages 14 to 17, sent by families too poor to pay smugglers for more than one journey. Others were separated from their parents along the way.

Distinguishing Minors From Adults in Migrant Tide 5:35 AM ET
PASSAU, Germany — Newly arrived migrants were lining up at the train station in this border town for their first registration one recent evening. In a group of young Afghans traveling on their own, Matin, from Kabul, said he was 17 years old.

A police officer laughed. “Yes, you and all your friends are 17,” he said. “You know how often I hear that every day?”

One of the hardest challenges in processing unaccompanied teenage migrants is to determine whether they are still minors. Their legal situation changes radically on their 18th birthday.

Migrants under 18 are considered “children first and refugees second,” giving them the same rights as German children, said Johanna Karpenstein of B-UMF, a Berlin-based charity focused on unaccompanied minor refugees across Germany. That means where possible they are fast-tracked into youth housing, German lessons and schools. Perhaps the biggest prize: If they are granted asylum, their families are allowed to join them in Germany.

Austria Looks Into Building a Border Fence 33 minutes ago
Ousted Australian Leader Urges Hard Line From Europe 3:27 AM ET

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From my column in Taki’s Magazine:

Reactionary author Michel Houellebecq’s novel about an Islamic takeover of France, Submission, was published the day of the slaughter at Charlie Hebdo. In fact, the satirical publication’s cover that bloody morning was a cartoon of the notoriously decrepit-looking Houellebecq prophesying, “In 2015, I lose my teeth. In 2022, I observe Ramadan!”

Perhaps continental Europe’s most talked-about novelist this century, Houellebecq (a complicated-looking name pronounced, simply enough, “WELL-beck”) is representative of the rise of the right as a cultural force. The editor of the leftist Liberation newspaper complained that Submission “will mark the date in the history of ideas on which the ideas of the extreme right made their entrance in high literature.” Houellebecq has described himself in his usual half-joking style as “Nihilist, reactionary, cynic, racist, shameless misogynist: to lump me in with the rather unsavory family of ‘right-wing anarchists’ would be to give me too much credit; basically, I’m just a redneck.”

In reality, Houellebecq is an autodidact with an immense love of French literature. But he missed out on the usual educational and career path of French intellectuals, instead studying agronomy in college and going to work with computers, which he hated. In his 1990s novels, Whatever and The Elementary Particles, he more or less introduced to literature the now familiar character of the sexually frustrated computer programmer. Houellebecq has been a major influence on the sexual realist wing of the American blogosphere, such as Heartiste.

Read the whole thing there.

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Chancellor Merkel is starting to notice that her decision to unilaterally trash E.U. rules and let in countless Muslim from Syria (population 19 million) and who knows from where else maybe isn’t quite working out so hot. But, don’t worry, she’s come up with a new solution to fix her old solution: She’ll get the Turks to stop the Syrian invasion of Europe!

In return, she’ll merely give 79 million Muslim Turks the right to move to Europe.

Merkel Links Turkey’s E.U. Hopes to Stemming Flow of Refugees
By TIM ARANGO OCT. 18, 2015

ISTANBUL — Desperately seeking help to contain Europe’s migrant crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Sunday explicitly linked accelerating Turkey’s effort to join the European Union to Turkish cooperation in clamping down on the flow of refugees from Turkey to Europe.

Ms. Merkel, who has long opposed Turkey’s admission to the bloc, said she would support speeding up the process, a concession that underscored the importance European leaders place on Turkey’s cooperation in trying to contain what has become the largest flow of migrants since World War II, as people flee violence and deprivation in the Middle East and Africa.

“No country can shoulder the refugee burden alone,” Ms. Merkel said at a news conference with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey in Istanbul on Sunday. “The job has to be shared.”

For weeks, a deal in principle between Europe and Turkey has been discussed: it would include almost three billion euros, or about $3.4 billion, to help Turkey deal with nearly 2.2 million refugees, mostly from Syria, who now live in Turkey. At the news conference, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Davutoglu said no agreement had been finalized and that the details were still being worked out. …

In the early evening, Ms. Merkel met with Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s pre-eminent decision maker, and they also discussed the migrant crisis, as well as the European Union accession process and counterterrorism.

In a statement, Mr. Erdogan said he had asked Ms. Merkel for support in accelerating Turkey’s efforts to join the union.

…. In the negotiations, Turkey has made visa-free travel to Europe for its citizens a top priority, and Ms. Merkel said she had agreed to push that issue forward. Turkey is the only country that has been formally accepted for possible membership in the union whose citizens must have visas to travel to Europe.

Turkey has long sought to join the European Union — formal talks began in 2005 — but the process has stalled in recent years, partly because of European concerns about Turkey’s human rights record and a government crackdown on the news media and freedom of expression.

And also because Turkey is filled with Muslim Turks, who, once included in the E.U. Schengen Zone, would be entitled to move anywhere they felt like. Here’s a 2004 VDARE article I wrote on Turkey’s attempt to get into the E.U. Back in 2002, Randall Parker cited French elder statesman Valery Giscard-D’Estaing’s frank talk about what adding Turkey to the E.U. would mean for Europe:

Mr Giscard d’Estaing told Le Monde that Turkey’s capital was not in Europe, 95% of its population lived outside Europe, and it was “not a European country”.

Asked what the effect of including Turkey in a future wave of European enlargement would be, he said: “In my opinion, it would be the end of Europe.”

Underlining his opposition to Turkish membership of the EU, Giscard d’Estaing said that letting non-European countries join the 15-member club would be “the end of the European Union.”

“The day after you open negotiations with Turkey, you would have a Moroccan demand (for membership of the union,)” said the 76-year-old politician.

Giscard’s comments reflected in blunt language what many EU politicians whisper privately, but they come at a particularly delicate time when Brussels needs Turkey’s cooperation to try to solve several problems related to enlargement.

But, now due to Merkel’s unforced error, own goal, whatever sports metaphor you want to use, the E.U. is begging Turkey not the other way around. From the Financial Times:

Commission officials briefed EU ambassadors on Thursday on the Turkish requirements for completing the terms of the action plan, including €3bn in fresh funds; unblocking about five chapters in Turkey’s EU membership negotiations; and visa-free access for 75m Turks to the Schengen border-free area from as soon as 2016.

Holy cow: “visa-free access for 75m Turks to the Schengen border-free area from as soon as 2016.”

The NYT article doesn’t mention the world “Schengen,” but does go on to mention that the Turkish government doesn’t have the world’s best human rights record. But, due to Merkel’s Boner, Europe is looking for its salvation to the tender mercies and transparent stratagems of the Top Turk.

If this reminds you of a Simpson’s episode about fighting invasive Bolivian tree lizards by unleashing wave after wave of Chinese needle snakes, well, you’ve come to the right place.

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From the Daily Mail:

Could your views on God and immigration be changed by using MAGNETS? Brain stimulation can alter beliefs, study claims

Scientists used magnetic stimulation to shut down parts of people’s brains

They specifically targeted the posterior medial frontal cortex associated with how the brain detects and solves problems and threats

Participants reported that their belief in God dropped by a third in tests

There was also a 28% increase in positive feelings towards immigrants

PUBLISHED: 08:38 EST, 14 October 2015

Psychologists have discovered it’s possible to significantly change a person’s beliefs simply by targeting their brain with magnets.

Using what’s known as transcranial magnetic stimulation, the researchers were able to temporarily shut down the part of the brain associated with detecting and solving problems.

As Stalin might say if he were around today, No brain, no problem.

People who were subjected to this treatment reported that their belief in God dropped by a third following the stimulation, while there was an increase in positive feelings towards immigrants.

The study was carried out by Dr Keise Izuma from the University of York and Colin Holbrook from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

They recruited 38 participants with an average age of 21, to take part in the study.=

Each of these participants said they held significant religious beliefs, and the majority held moderate to extremely conservative political beliefs.

Political views were important because it suggested they were more likely to have stronger viewpoints on immigration.

Half of these participants formed part of a control group and received a low-level ‘sham’ procedure that did not affect their brains.

The other half received enough energy through transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to lower activity in the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC).

This part of the brain, located near the surface and roughly a few inches up from the forehead, is associated with detecting problems and triggering responses that address them. …

Following the treatment, all the participants were first asked to think about death before being asked questions about their religious beliefs and their feelings about immigrants. …

To address their levels of prejudice, participants were asked to read two essays – one critical and one positive – written by an immigrant from Latin America about the US. …

After reading each essay, participants rated how much they liked the person who wrote the essay and how much they agreed with their views. …

The findings, published in the journal Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, reveal that people whose brains were targeted by TMS reported 32.8 per cent less belief in God, angels, or heaven. They were also 28.5 per cent more positive in their feelings toward an immigrant who criticised their country.

The investigators additionally found that the magnetic stimulation had the greatest effect on reactions to the critical author in the essay test.

‘We think that hearing criticisms of your group’s values, perhaps especially from a person you perceive as an outsider, is processed as an ideological sort of threat,’ said Dr Izuma.

‘One way to respond to such threats is to ‘double down’ on your group values, increasing your investment in them, and reacting more negatively to the critic,’ he continued.

‘When we disrupted the brain region that usually helps detect and respond to threats, we saw a less negative, less ideologically motivated reaction to the critical author and his opinions.’ …

The TMS group also rated immigrants higher than the control group

… ‘Whether we’re trying to clamber over a fallen tree that we find in our path, find solace in religion, or resolve issues related to immigration, our brains are using the same basic mental machinery,’ the researchers concluded.

So, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for the donors to ¡Jeb!

Just use the Bush campaign’s megabucks to put these mind control magnets outside of voting booths in key primary states to turn off the brains of voters and your boy is a lock.

Having Americans trip over fallen trees more is a small price to pay for less skepticism about immigration.

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Screenshot 2015-10-12 16.51.59

What with demand for Volkswagens soaring, German Chancellor Merkel’s decision to let in (literally) countless numbers of newcomers from the Muslim world is being hailed as an economic masterstroke that will counteract the deleterious wage-boosting effects of the number of working-age residents in Germany being otherwise expected to plunge from 49.2 million in 2013 all the way down to 48.8 million in 2020.

But, strange as it may seem from reading The Economist, the word “demographics” means more than just “age.” One of the more interesting aspect of demographics is the “consanguinity” rate, or percentage of all marriages that are between first or second cousins, a statistic which correlates strikingly with a lack of what Europeans consider civic virtues.

Professor Alan Bittles of the Centre for Comparative Genomics at Murdoch U. tracks those rates at his website.

Interestingly, the Merkel Youth seem to come overwhelmingly from inbred cultures, which is probably not coincidental.

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Screenshot 2015-10-08 02.01.09

For Peace Prize punters, here are the latest odds fr0m For some reason, I don’t see Clock Boy’s name on the Peace Prize list, although I had him down as a sure bet for the Physics Nobel for inventing Time, so what do I know?

Dr. Mukwege sounds like he’d be a worthy winner. From Wikipedia:

Denis Mukwege (born 1 March 1955) is a Congolese gynecologist. He founded and works in Panzi Hospital in Bukavu, where he specializes in the treatment of women who have been gang-raped by rebel forces. Mukwege has become the world’s leading expert on how to repair the internal physical damage caused by gang rape.

Mukwege has treated thousands of women who were victims of gang wartime rape since the Second Congo War, some of them more than once, performing up to 10 surgeries a day during his 18-hour working days.

Speaking of gang rape, how about Alexis Jay, who wrote the 2014 Rotherham Report that finally broke the omerta in England?

Mussie Zerai is an Eritrean priest who helps organize the Camp of the Saints, even though there’s no war in Eritrea. Speaking of the Camp of the Saints, how about Jean Raspail for giving us a 42-years to prepare? Granted, we totally frittered it away, but still …

You’ve probably heard of Angela Merkel.

Screenshot 2015-10-08 02.17.54

By the time you’ll read this, you’ll probably know who won, but it’s fun to look at old odds. How well did the prediction markets work out this time, Professor Hanson?

For some reason, I don’t see Ta-Nehisi Coates on the list, but then I had him down for Medicine/Physiology for being the world’s leading expert on Black Bodies, so what do I know?

For the Literature Prize, it looks like there’s a Year of the Woman thing going on.

“Sorry, old man. Because of the weak imagery, scanty plot, and pedestrian language in your latest, we’ve turned your table over to Joyce Carol Oates.” William Hamilton, The New Yorker, early to mid-1970s

Joyce Carol Oates is an excellent writer but she’s highly prolific, which usually counts as a detriment in winning the Nobel. And she has been publishing books since 1963. American authors usually don’t win lifetime achievement awards, since they don’t lack for opportunities for publicity. To win, they’re usually expected to sober up and write something better than their recent stuff, like The Old Man and Sea helped Hemingway garner his gong.

I haven’t heard a theory about why Oates is so highly ranked this year, but I’ll make up one: giving her the award would strike a blow against the male-biased notion that important writers should write important books that stand out. Oates would represent all the productive female novelists who write lots and lots of novels without a lot of drama about Promethean ambitions.

That’s probably not the worst theory in the world for justifying a Nobel.

Or maybe she’s near the top because she’s on Twitter? (Here are the Nobel candidate’s sensible tweets on Donald Sterling.)

Or maybe sozzled English punters keep hearing from America about the transcendent literary importance of Ta-Nehisi Coates and thinking, reasonably enough, that the Americans must be referring to Joyce Carole Oates? Coates, Oates, let’s call the whole thing off …

Dwight Garner of the NYT would like to see win J.P. Donleavy, who, amazingly enough, is still alive 60 years after publishing The Ginger Man, a novel that inspired everybody from Hunter S. Thompson to Colin Quinn to take up drunkenness as the key to being a Celtic bard.

Obviously, the Literature Award is a near total-crapshoot because how valid are opinions on literary merit across multiple languages? But, if the Nobel Committee wants to be relevant, the novelist who has dominated 2015 is this guy.

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From the New York Times op-ed page:

The Case for Euro-Optimism

… As is often the case these days, Ms. Merkel knows what she’s talking about. Not only can Europe overcome its current challenges, but the storm is actually making the union stronger. …

But the response, largely coordinated by Germany, has been equally impressive. Ms. Merkel has set up an informal system of governance that works fairly well, inside and outside Germany: her coalition partners, the Social Democrats, at home; President François Hollande of France, crucial to winning Western Europe; the European Council president, Donald Tusk, representing Central European interests; and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, who knows how to play the Brussels machine. President Obama is the key outside partner.

A Merkel-centric “power-horizontal” sets up a very different union from the one that governments have agreed to in the treaties.

Uh, you know, that’s called Germany trampling on the rule of law.

Instead of Brussels, Berlin has become the power center. Neither federalists nor nationalists are happy with that.

But the German Chancellor is happy and that’s what counts, according to the Eührerprinzip.

Perhaps no challenge better illustrates the union’s strengths than the waves of refugees arriving in Europe. Ms. Merkel has correctly framed it as a challenge for Europe as a whole, rather than for individual countries. And Europe has acted accordingly, taking a contentious but successful vote to spread the burden of accepting the refugees.

Uh, well, yeah, but for about 11% of the expected 2015 arrivals. And Ms. Merkel forgot to multiply the number of asylees by the number of their relatives.

True, the old refugee system broke down under the sudden weight. But with a speed that surprised even Euro-optimists, the union has begun to fashion new rules, often on the fly.

I.e., while Germany violates E.U. rules willy-nilly, Hungary tries to uphold them but is denounced for being anti-E.U.

What we see unfolding is a pan-European system of governance.

With apologies to Mel Brooks:

Autumn for Merkel and Germany
Europe is prostrate, must pay
We’re taking at a faster pace
Look out, here comes the Muslim race!

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You may have wondered why, outside of my repetitious drumbeat, there has been so little comment on how the Gulf Arabs aren’t spending their money to help their Muslim brethren in need. One reason is because they have better things to spend their money on, such as the American think tanks who provide the press with ideas and quotes. From the New York Times:

Foreign Powers Buy Influence at Think Tanks

… More than a dozen prominent Washington research groups have received tens of millions of dollars from foreign governments in recent years while pushing United States government officials to adopt policies that often reflect the donors’ priorities, an investigation by The New York Times has found.

The money is increasingly transforming the once-staid think-tank world into a muscular arm of foreign governments’ lobbying in Washington. And it has set off troubling questions about intellectual freedom: Some scholars say they have been pressured to reach conclusions friendly to the government financing the research.

The think tanks do not disclose the terms of the agreements they have reached with foreign governments. And they have not registered with the United States government as representatives of the donor countries, an omission that appears, in some cases, to be a violation of federal law, according to several legal specialists who examined the agreements at the request of The Times.

As a result, policy makers who rely on think tanks are often unaware of the role of foreign governments in funding the research.

Joseph Sandler, a lawyer and expert on the statute that governs Americans lobbying for foreign governments, said the arrangements between the countries and think tanks “opened a whole new window into an aspect of the influence-buying in Washington that has not previously been exposed.”

“It is particularly egregious because with a law firm or lobbying firm, you expect them to be an advocate,” Mr. Sandler added. “Think tanks have this patina of academic neutrality and objectivity, and that is being compromised.”

The arrangements involve Washington’s most influential think tanks, including the Brookings Institution, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Atlantic Council. Each is a major recipient of overseas funds, producing policy papers, hosting forums and organizing private briefings for senior United States government officials that typically align with the foreign governments’ agendas.

Most of the money comes from countries in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia, particularly the oil-producing nations of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Norway, and takes many forms. The United Arab Emirates, a major supporter of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, quietly provided a donation of more than $1 million to help build the center’s gleaming new glass and steel headquarters not far from the White House. Qatar, the small but wealthy Middle East nation, agreed last year to make a $14.8 million, four-year donation to Brookings, which has helped fund a Brookings affiliate in Qatar and a project on United States relations with the Islamic world.

Some scholars say the donations have led to implicit agreements that the research groups would refrain from criticizing the donor governments.

“If a member of Congress is using the Brookings reports, they should be aware — they are not getting the full story,” said Saleem Ali, who served as a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar and who said he had been told during his job interview that he could not take positions critical of the Qatari government in papers. “They may not be getting a false story, but they are not getting the full story.” …

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — two nations that host large United States military bases and view a continued American military presence as central to their own national security — have been especially aggressive in their giving to think tanks. The two Persian Gulf monarchies are also engaged in a battle with each other to shape Western opinion, with Qatar arguing that Muslim Brotherhood-style political Islam is the Arab world’s best hope for democracy, and the United Arab Emirates seeking to persuade United States policy makers that the Brotherhood is a dangerous threat to the region’s stability. …

The tens of millions in donations from foreign interests come with certain expectations, researchers at the organizations said in interviews. Sometimes the foreign donors move aggressively to stifle views contrary to their own. …

Scholars at other Washington think tanks, who were granted anonymity to detail confidential internal discussions, described similar experiences that had a chilling effect on their research and ability to make public statements that might offend current or future foreign sponsors. At Brookings, for example, a donor with apparent ties to the Turkish government suspended its support after a scholar there made critical statements about the country, sending a message, one scholar there said.

“It is the self-censorship that really affects us over time,” the scholar said. “But the fund-raising environment is very difficult at the moment, and Brookings keeps growing and it has to support itself.”

The sensitivities are especially important when it comes to the Qatari government — the single biggest foreign donor to Brookings.

Brookings executives cited strict internal policies that they said ensure their scholars’ work is “not influenced by the views of our funders,” in Qatar or in Washington. They also pointed to several reports published at the Brookings Doha Center in recent years that, for example, questioned the Qatari government’s efforts to revamp its education system or criticized the role it has played in supporting militants in Syria.

But in 2012, when a revised agreement was signed between Brookings and the Qatari government, the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself praised the agreement on its website, announcing that “the center will assume its role in reflecting the bright image of Qatar in the international media, especially the American ones.” Brookings officials also acknowledged that they have regular meetings with Qatari government officials about the center’s activities and budget, and that the former Qatar prime minister sits on the center’s advisory board.

Mr. Ali, who served as one of the first visiting fellows at the Brookings Doha Center after it opened in 2009, said such a policy, though unwritten, was clear.

“There was a no-go zone when it came to criticizing the Qatari government,” said Mr. Ali, who is now a professor at the University of Queensland in Australia. “It was unsettling for the academics there. But it was the price we had to pay.”

It’s a little unfair of me to say the Brookings Institution doesn’t come cheap. Relative to how much money rich guys spend on sports these days, public policy intellectuals are an excellent bargain. I haven’t been invited to hang around many Washington think tanks in a while, but I visited several in the previous decade. At least back then, they usually weren’t super plush. The physical accommodations were kind of at the community college faculty office level.

In other words, Qatar can buy a lot of Washington think tank influence for many orders of magnitude less than the $200 billion it has budgeted to host the 2022 World Cup.

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European Union officials are trying to bribe Turkey’s prime minister into cutting down on the outflow of Muslims from Turkey to the EU. From The Telegraph, here’s the latest carrot they are considering:

In a boost to Mr Erdogan ahead of Turkish parliamentary elections next month, Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Council, said he was “strongly in favour” of speeding up a deal that will allow Turkey’s 75 million people to travel to Europe without visas.

Sources said the visas were “linked” to Turkey controlling its borders.

From an interview with Jean-Claude Juncker:

But isn’t that a bit short-sighted? What happens when we’re overrun by lizards?

No problem. We simply unleash wave after wave of Chinese needle snakes. They’ll wipe out the lizards.

But aren’t the snakes even worse?

Yes, but we’re prepared for that. We’ve lined up a fabulous type of gorilla that thrives on snake meat.

But then we’re stuck with gorillas!

No, that’s the beautiful part. When wintertime rolls around, the gorillas simply freeze to death.

Title reference.

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From Yahoo News:

‘Finland’s no good’: Disappointed migrants turn back
AFP By Anne Kauranen

Tornio (Finland) (AFP) – Hundreds of predominantly Iraqi migrants who have travelled through Europe to reach Finland are turning back, saying they don’t want to stay in the sparsely-populated country on Europe’s northern frontier because it’s too cold and boring.

Migrants have in recent weeks been crossing back into Sweden at the Haparanda-Tornio border just an hour’s drive south of the Arctic Circle, and Finnish authorities have seen a rise in the number of cancelled asylum applications.

“You can tell the world I hate Finland. It’s too cold, there’s no tea, no restaurants, no bars, nobody on the streets, only cars,” 22-year-old Muhammed told AFP in Tornio, as the mercury struggled to inch above 10 degrees Celsius (50 Fahrenheit) on a recent blustery grey day.

He had already travelled from Tornio to the capital Helsinki almost 750 kilometres (465 miles) south, and then back up to the Tornio border again to return to Sweden.

… Another group of around 15 Iraqi refugees waiting at the bus station that Tornio shares with its Swedish twin town Haparanda also said they wanted to go back to southern Sweden.

“Finland is no good,” the men echoed each other.

Sweden may be just as cold as Finland, but Sweden has bigger immigrant communities because of a longer history of integration.

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In rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic news, from the New York Times:

European Union Ministers Approve Plan to Distribute Refugees

BRUSSELS — European Union ministers approved a plan on Tuesday that compels member countries to take in 120,000 migrants seeking refuge on the Continent, despite strong objections from four dissident nations in Central Europe.

The plan to apportion the migrants, still only a small fraction of those flowing into Europe, was approved by home affairs and interior ministers of the member countries after a vigorous debate.

In a departure from normal procedures that emphasize consensus, particularly on questions of national sovereignty, the ministers took a formal vote. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia voted no. Finland abstained.

As a legal matter, however, the plan is final and must be carried out even if those countries oppose it. …

The crisis has tested the limits of Europe’s ability to forge consensus on one of the most divisive issues to confront the union since the fall of communism. It has set right-wing politicians, including those who govern Hungary, against Pan-European humanitarians, who have portrayed the crisis in stark moral terms.

“We would have preferred to have adoption by consensus, but we did not manage to achieve that,” Jean Asselborn, the foreign minister of Luxembourg, said after the meeting. He urged the countries that had voted no to comply with the decision. “I have no doubt they will implement these decisions fully,” he said.

Mr. Asselborn generated some confusion earlier on Tuesday when he said that the member states had agreed to take their allocations of migrants on a “voluntary” basis. Pressed on whether the countries that dissented would also have to accept the migrants, he responded, “Nobody has the right not to agree.”

Like in Orwell’s Newspeak, in EUspeak, “voluntary” means “Nobody has the right not to agree.”

It appears that one point of this manufactured crisis is to establish precedents diminishing national sovereignty. In other words, the “migrant crisis” is intended to facilitate an EU superstate coup.

Another factor that had been holding up a deal was the reluctance of a number of countries to hand over control of immigration to the European Commission, the Brussels-based executive agency for the European Union, which drew up the plans for the mandatory system.

And another graph that explains the migrant crises of 2016-2100
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Population 1950-2015-b

The demographers of the United Nation’s Population Division have quietly released their World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision report.

Above is a graph I put together from their new data that explains much about the “Migrant Crisis” of 2015.

As you can see, way back in 1950, the population of the Middle East was only 18% as great as the population of Europe, while Sub-Saharan Africa was only 33% as large. Even in 2000, the Middle East had only 49% of the population of Europe, while Africa had almost caught up to Europe with 88% of its population.

But from 2000 to 2015, the Middle East added 124 million people, making it now 65% as populous as Europe.

In this century alone, Sub-Saharan Africa has added 320 million people, making it 130% as populated as Europe.

Some of this information about the past is new. For example, the U.N.’s estimate of the population of the continent of Africa back in 2010 has grown by 13 million people, or over 1% between the 2012 Revision and the 2015 Revision. When it comes to population, the past just isn’t what it used to be.

But what about the future?

As a general pattern, the U.N. has found, the completeness of the counts tends to be worse in the fastest growing countries. Thus, the harder the U.N. has looked at Africa in this decade, the more people and more new babies it keeps uncovering.

It turns out that while the total fertility rate in Africa is falling, it’s falling quite a bit more slowly than the U.N. had expected before its disturbing 2012 Revision.

Sub-Saharan Africa simply isn’t behaving like the rest of the world:

Screenshot 2015-09-19 16.44.14

This U.N. map of total fertility rates can be found here. I reviewed the deep structure reasons for Sub-Saharan Africa’s anomalously high fertility here.

The upward adjustment in Africa’s population projections in the 2012 Revision of World Population Prospects came as a shock. But the 2015 Revision forecasts Africa’s population in 2100, about one lifetime from now, to be another 5% higher than the U.N. projected just back in 2012.

And here’s my full graph of the U.N.’s 2015 Revision numbers:

Population 1950-2100-b


The U.N. now projects that, despite lower fertility in some Muslim countries such as Iran, the population of the Middle East will surpass that of Europe in 2045 and reach 937 million by 2100.

As for Sub-Saharan Africa, the U.N. foresees the population growing to 3,935,000,000 (3.9 billion and change) by 2100. (The total population of Africa and the Middle East will be 4,872,000,000.)

That’s probably not going to happen due to some combination of (A) intelligent self-restraint, (B) mass migration, and (C) Malthusian Nightmares (war, famine, disease, etc. etc.) keeping the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2100 from being more than six times as great as Europe, which would be an 18-fold increase in 150 years.

Keep in mind that there’s not a one to one relationship between population growth and emigration. In general, people try to assess whether the future at home looks brighter than the present. But people in Africa and the Middle East can see their countries’ futures will be more crowded and constrained.

Personally, I hope the reason that this graph doesn’t prove accurate is largely (A) intelligent self-restraint. But at present, white people don’t seem to be making much of an effort to facilitate and encourage reasonable family planning in Africa. Because that would be, you know, racist.

Which is the worst thing in the world, much worse than the U.N.’s population forecast.

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From the New York Times:

17,000 Migrants Stranded in Croatia by Border Crackdown

A half hour ago, this headline began “15,000 Migrants.”

LONDON — As key nations tighten their borders, thousands of migrants and asylum seekers hoping to enter Western Europe are now bottled up in the Balkans, placing precarious new burdens on a region of lingering sectarian divisions that is exceptionally ill prepared to handle the crisis that has been shunted to it.

More than 17,000 migrants have entered Croatia since Wednesday, and were essentially trapped there, having been blocked from Hungary, sent packing from Serbia and unable to move on to Slovenia. The migrants have become a sloshing tide of humanity, left to flow wherever the region’s conflicting and constantly changing border controls channel them.

The shifting of the crisis to the Balkans has added a whole new dynamic to the crisis, threatening to reopen old wounds and distrust. The masses of migrants and refugees are struggling through the clutch of countries that once formed Yugoslavia, until the wars of the 1990s bloodily broke the former Communist state apart.

As hundreds of refugees continued to stream into Croatia on Friday, the government announced that it would close its borders with Serbia. Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic said his country was overwhelmed, and Interior Minister Ranko Ostojic had a message for the migrants: “Don’t come here anymore. This is not the road to Europe.”

The remarks were revealing of the tensions the migrants are now sowing among nations with weak economies, uncertain futures in Europe, creaking welfare states and deep wounds from the past. Those factors are hobbling the region’s ability to respond to a crisis that even richer nations in Europe have struggled to address. …

But after gaining independence, countries in the region have struggled to bounce back — the average gross monthly wage in Serbia is 518 euros, about $585, while unemployment hovers at about 18 percent, according to the government statistics office. …

President Tomislav Nikolic of Serbia on Friday railed at members of the bloc for their hypocrisy, selfishness and lack of leadership in the face of the migration crisis. He said it was “absurd” that Serbia respected European standards more than those who are members and who are now “almost out of control — without receiving any criticism, advice, or order from Brussels.”

In a region long plagued by bloody conflicts over land, it is hard enough to police borders where regional rivalries still remain. Slovenia, the first former Yugoslav nation to join the European Union in 2004, and Croatia, which joined in 2013, cannot agree where Croatia ends and Slovenia begins — a dispute that dates to Yugoslavia’s collapse.

Slovenia is part of the Schengen accord that allows freedom of movement among member states; Croatia is not. Macedonia and Greece have battled over who has claims to the name Macedonia.

Thanks, Germany!

Steve Sailer
About Steve Sailer

Steve Sailer is a journalist, movie critic for Taki's Magazine, columnist, and founder of the Human Biodiversity discussion group for top scientists and public intellectuals.

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