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To understand what’s at stake regarding the Mediterranean, here’s a graph I made from the numbers in World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision: Volume II: Demographic Profiles, which was published in 2013 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The United Nations’ population projections for the continent of Africa are on p. 10 of the paper document (p. 36 of the PDF); the data for the continent of Europe are on p. 23 (p. 49 of the PDF).

(Now, of course, these UN projections are based on the highly arguable premise that the emigration rate out of Africa will decline steadily. The million or so Africans currently massed in Libya waiting to set sail for the EU, where they will invite their relatives back home to join them, would probably not agree with that heroic assumption.)

P.S., I’ve created an updated graph showing the numbers from the U.N.’s new 2015 Revision. In it, I break out population forecasts for Europe, Middle East (North Africa & West Asia), and Sub-Saharan Africa.

 

158 Comments to "The World's Most Important Graph"

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  1. That must be counting country of citizenship. If you count ethnicity, wouldn’t the European population be declining, due to their sub-replacement fertility?

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  2. I wonder what impact this sub-saharan population boom will have on the racially Arab-Berber North African countries. It’d seem likely that many black Africans will look to greener pastures in Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Arabs react to blacks swamping their countries.

    With the EU, at least there’s a sea that separates Africa from the continent. There’s not nearly that much of a barrier, other than desert, keeping apart Arabs and blacks in Africa. So I think they’re in more danger of being swamped.

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  3. This is the worlds most important graph. I would add a line for the population of China and South Asia (India+Pakistan+Bangladesh). If you have only Europe and Africa people might assume that this demographic pattern is a first world / third world issue, which it is not. Also I would make a line for subsaharan Africa, not for Africa. It is all about subsaharan Africa vs the rest of the world.

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  4. Jafros!

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  5. It would be interesting to see the comparable chart for North Africa vs. Sub-saharan Africa. I guess the security story of the next decade will be the swamping of Libya, Algeria, etc. of migrants.

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  6. Sub-Saharan masses do not want to settle in Tunisia, Algeria or Morocco, or even to stay in Greece or Italy, their aim is fixed on the richer northern EU welfare states. This doesn’t mean that many of them will not get stuck in northwest Africa.

    Ceuta, Spain’s exclave in Morocco, has had no end of Sub-Saharan fence-jumpers and a good many attempts by boat and even by swim from the adjacent Moroccan shores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta

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  7. As I wrote on another thread, send 200 million Africans to Europe, and the impact on Europe would be disastrous, while Africa would only be back to the population it had just 10 years ago.

    Flooding Europe with Third Worlders is not the answer. In the next 5-10 years we will see either very dramatic changes in Western immigration policy or in Western demographics. One way or another, the world of 2025 will be very, very different.

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  8. Anonymous
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    As the last week has shown, the sea is no barrier at all if politicians decree that all he enter the sea are, more or less, immediately swept-up on a rescue boat and placed on the long, but inevitable pathway to EU citizenship – and all its attendant goodies – and with the added bonus that eventually that prize of EU citizenship ‘magically’ multiplies like some heavenly rabbit gift from the goddess Eostre, in that it spreads like scabies to all members of your extended family, back home, and eventually to the entire village.

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    Of course, the fate of that ‘blue line’ is much worse than it seems at face value.
    By 2100 there might be 700 million people in Europe, but I would strongly doubt if even 300 million of them will be ‘Europeans’ in the true, real sense.

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  10. Anonymous
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    The other day, I looked at a map BBC TV news had showing the location of a sinking.
    I strongly noticed that Tunisia was the nearest nation to Libya. Does Tunisia really shoot migrants on sight?

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  11. Anonymous
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    …and North Africa was never really noted for it’s ‘green pastures’

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    Quality of life for the average African has improved since 2000.

    A lot fewer wars than compared to the 1990s.

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  13. Sub-saharan Africa has a GNI per capita of $1,686.
    North Africa and the Middle East have a GNI per capita of $3,456.

    I could see a large number of blacks moving to North Africa to double their standard of living.

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  14. Yep, Europe is doomed. Back to the neanderthals!

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  15. how Arabs react to blacks swamping their countries,

    There are large African-American populations in the Western hemisphere from the western slave trade which are slowly being assimilated. There is no similar AA populations in the Arab world although the eastern slave trade started much earlier and went on much longer. There are two reasons, Arab slave traders did not want female slaves and the male slaves were castrated.

    Thanks, steve, for this graph

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  16. The sub-saharan African population will increase by about 1 billion. Even if 50 million end up in Europe, that still means 950 million need somewhere to go.

    Where will they go?

    Most will stay home, but I could see huge overflow into North Africa. Hence why I think NA will be hit the hardest.

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  17. There are plenty of black and mixed individuals in parts of the Arab world. Due in part to manumission, there isn’t a one-drop color line as in the U.S. A famous example is the former Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Bandar bin Sultan, whose mother was a black slave.

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  18. The Sahara desert is a formidable barrier. Sub-Saharan Africans are getting to North Africa now via North African smugglers, ferrying them to the Mediterranean coast. Presumably, if Europe clamped down on accepting migrants, the people smuggling would end.

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  19. Wow! Great post. So simple and fundamental, but I really didn’t understand this.

    In 1995 Africa caught up with Europe in population.
    Now Africa’s population is about 7 to 8 times that of Europe.

    What a complete catastrophe.

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  20. anonymous
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    I remember back in the 60′s in grammar school the teachers told us that the US was projected to become majority non-white by 2050. I wasn’t sure at the time, being a child, what to make of it. They acted as though it were just a force of nature that no one has any control over just like earthquakes and the weather. I now realize that of course it could be controlled but that it’s a political question that requires the will to take action. Doing nothing is also a decision. The European countries need to take a sharp right turn and take a hardline position on this question. The response to this invasion needs to be ratcheted up to whatever level is required to quash it, wherever that level is; just enough to attain the result and no more.

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  21. Hans Rosling says to buy beachfront property in Somalia: https://twitter.com/hansrosling/status/591026203844288513

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  22. Only household slaves were castrated, as they are in close quarters with the Arab women. The rest were not, which is why you have large black populations in Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula.

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  23. Africa’s population is not 7 or 8 times that of Europe yet. The U.N. predicts it will be by 2100.

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  24. The population of Africa cannot possibly reach that number without continuous intervention and aid from the West. Famine, war, and plague are inevitable, even with that aid.

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  25. It’ll be interesting to see how Arabs react to blacks swamping their countries.

    The latest ISIL video provides a grim answer to that question. But so far I haven’t heard any outrage from SJWs about light-skinned Arabs holding down black Africans and gruesomely sawing off their heads, all glorified on a glitzy propaganda video. It might have something to do with the fact that the victims were killed because of their Christianity instead of their race.

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  26. The boat people, Gaddafi’s revenge?

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  27. It might have something to do with the fact that the victims were killed because of their Christianity instead of their race

    Well yes, it might POSSIBLY have SOMETHING to do with that.

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  28. I suppose the meaning of this graph is all in the eye of the beholder. The CEO of a global consumer conglomerate could see 4.5 billion pure impulse buyers (but lets accelerate that plan to shift all human manufacturing activity out of Europe to China).

    The viral world could also “see” an enormous target of opportunity, complicated only by the timing of how soon the viability of the Western pharmaceutical R&D budget will collapse (ironically, immigration to the Western economies that generate that budget will hasten that day).

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  29. Anonymous
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    “Sobering to realize that decisions occurring right now will determine if Africa’s northern sea will be the Mediterranean or Baltic.”

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  30. The graph would be more impressive showing only the number of “active” or “young and healthy” population. About half of the Europeans are/will be disabled and elderly compared with mostly young and potent African population.

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  31. Whoops. Thanks. My blood pressure is coming down now.

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  32. Anonymous
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    Believe me, nothing would make them happier than sawing off a long line of white European heads.
    And that, soon, will come to pass.

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    Nothing but nothing at the moment has made me more angry than hearing a bunch of shit-breeches politicians and others of that ilk such as The Economist magazine somehow try to make the comparison between the present crisis and the ‘slave trade’ – presumably meaning the Atlantic slave trade.

    Of course, people actually *wanted* slaves and thus took custody of them and jealously guarded and appropriated them. But with these so-called ‘migrants’ (invaders), the opposite is true. In fact no one actually wants them, let alone jealously wanting to appropriate them and take custody of them. In this regard *they* are not ‘victims’ but interlopers and imposters.

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  34. If the West tears itself apart with a war (which is a path some have knowingly or unknowingly set us upon with our current attitude towards Russia), then it will necessitate a drying up of funds allocated towards Africa. This is ultimately what will keep Africa from coming anywhere close to those 2100 numbers.

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  35. Stop giving them food and AIDS medicine and the problem will take care of itself.

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  36. > send 200 million Africans to Europe, and the impact on Europe would be disastrous, while Africa would only be back to the population it had just 10 years ago. Flooding Europe with Third Worlders is not the answer.

    Today, NPR’s Morning Edition broadcast a 4-minute interview with the UN’s highest-ranking official on migrants. U.N. Representative Blames Syria’s Civil War For Massive Migration Crisis.

    The U.N. says Europe and the West need to change immigration policies to prevent more disaster. Renee Montagne talks to Francois Crepeau, the U.N. special rapporteur on the human rights of migrants.

    He has to be heard to be believed (the transcript isn’t up, yet). As the UN sees it, people from the Middle East and Africa do attempt to migrate to Europe. They have the right to be welcomed to their future homes, and there should be mass population influxes into the Global North (his term). M. Crepeau’s root-cause analysis is that the Global North is entirely to blame for this crisis, by making mass migration difficult. The solution logically follows: the North must make Africa-to-Europe movement simple, safe, cheap, and easy. Each Northern nation must welcome a UN-determined proportion of the number of would-be immigrants.

    According to the arithmetic that M. Crepeau presents and purports to believe, the US share adds up to a mere 70,000 would-be immigrants per year for five years.

    NPR reporter Renee Montaigne frets, “Europe is in the grip of a xenophobic moment.” Interviewer and interviewee both furrow their brows, and agree that it may take time for the citizens of their respective countries to come to their senses by embracing the UN’s Elect A New People strategy.

    Our elites hate us.

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  37. I’m buying shares in KFC Europe: http://www.yum.com/newsroom/news-business/kfc-italy.asp#.VTj_61J4XCQ

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  38. Other events that occured in 1994 (year of Africa-Europe parity).

    NAFTA implemented.
    First smartphones sold (IBM).
    Violence Against Women Act signed by Clinton.
    Improving America’s Schools Act of 1994
    Forrest Gump wins 1994 Best Picture Oscar

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  39. I remember back in the 60′s in grammar school the teachers told us that the US was projected to become majority non-white by 2050. I wasn’t sure at the time, being a child, what to make of it. They acted as though it were just a force of nature that no one has any control over just like earthquakes and the weather.

    Ah yes, the force of nature that is so inevitable nothing can be done. Usually a force of nature is just that. But in regards to this mid to late 20th century force, nature required a little assistance. So far that assistance has been about fifty years of increasing annual immigration rates that dwarf those rates from the previous forty years. And not only is there no let up in store for those rates, powerful people are pushing to even double them.

    I now realize that of course it could be controlled but that it’s a political question that requires the will to take action. Doing nothing is also a decision.

    It wasn’t just that nothing was done. Rather something was done. Laws were changed to allow the legal limit of immigration to be increased from about 180k per year to the present of almost 2 million annually. Government funds were made available to assist newcomers. Where once one had to prove they would not become a ward of the state, they now could become eligible for benefits. There were also provisions to treat non-European newcomers as minorities eligible for affirmative action type benefits. In short, not only was nothing not done, a lot was done to roll out the welcome mat to make this happen.

    This should be looked upon by history similarly to the Chinese general who opened the gates to the Great Wall. It could not have been accomplished without inside assistance.

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  40. The UN officials haven’t really thought this through. Once Europe becomes majority black, it won’t be so pleasant to hang out in Geneva or Vienna anymore. No more Biennale, no more summers at Lake Como, drastic quality drop among French wine producers , no more skiing at Val D’Isere, no more fine German cars. Europe currently funds at least 25% of the UN budget as well. Those cushy sinecures are going to dry up pretty quickly since once Black Europe loses interest in the UN, and when Europe loses interest I suspect the US, Japan and China aren’t going to keep funding it. Have the elites lost their minds?

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  41. Comment #8, submitted at the NPR story referenced supra. Given the aggressive moderation at that site, it may not persist.

    AMac78, April 23, 2015 – 10:36 AM

    I applaud the clarity of M. Crepeau’s analysis. The Global North has the obligation to welcome as many Libyans, Sub-Saharan Africans, and Syrians as wish to migrate. According to the U.N. document “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision: Volume II: Demographic Profiles”, Africa’s population will reach 1.6 billion in 2030, up from 1.1 billion today (PDF page 36). M. Crepeau’s calculates that the US can pull its weight by accepting 70,000 aspiring migrants per year for five years. The good news is that his numbers may be a bit understated. Surely the US should do more. If we embrace an influx of 10,000,000 Africans per year for the next 15 years — only 150,000,000 immigrants — Africa will only need to accommodate an additional 350 million people (rather than the 500 million people that the UN currently projects). And if nearby Europe matches our actions, the population of the African continent will increase by only 200 million, during that time.

    These simple moves would go a long way towards addressing the root causes that underlie the current crisis.

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  42. I think it’s important for us not to put too much stock in projections 90 years into the future.

    Also Libya’s civil war has much more to do with this than Syria’s.

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  43. Just wait until the world sees the passenger facilities on the new Silk Road. That will help address the critical imbalance in representation among populations in Europe. They have some catching up to do, but with concerted effort will likely move up the league tables.

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  44. I find that astounding. I was in grammar school in the mid-’60′s in California and I don’t recall any such suggestion. In fact, I don’t recall anything remotely political from any of the teachers then, which is what was so great about it. And it seems strange for anyone to have made such a prediction at that time given the circumstances, the assumption being that insufficient food would prevent undue population growth, or alternatively, that western aid would produce self-reliance and obviate the need to emigrate.

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  45. How much rapport does the erstwhile rapporteur Crepeau have with any vibrant neighbors?

    Etymology musing aside: Crepeau is somewhat reminiscent of crepuscule, French for dusk, or if you prefer, reminiscent of crapaud, French for toad.

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  46. I find that astounding. I was in grammar school in the mid-’60′s in California and I don’t recall any such suggestion. In fact, I don’t recall anything remotely political from any of the teachers then, which is what was so great about it. And it seems strange for anyone to have made such a prediction at that time given the circumstances, it being assumed that insufficient food would prevent undue population growth, or, alternatively, that western aid would produce self-reliance and obviate any need to emigrate.

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  47. - Even if demographic transformation of Europe seems inevitable, holding the tidal wave off for a decade would help. Technology will advance and change society, evidence of multicultural success/failure will accumulate, political winds will change, and natural resource limits may really come into larger play.

    - People worried about overpopulation were spectacularly wrong in the past, and that is no longer a fashionable concern, but it will come back. Most environmentalists stress mass population growth as the number one environmental threat. Secondly, the western lifestyle is dramatically more natural resource intensive than the lifestyle in underdeveloped nations. Most serious environmentalists say we have no where near the natural capacity to afford a western lifestyle for today’s current population. A continued population explosion in Africa is going to make this worse.

    - If millions of people need to flee African/Arab nations for humanitarian concern, there should be global pressure for other non-white nations to share this load. In the past century, pressure has been exclusively on the whites. Put pressure on China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Thailand, etc to accommodate these tidal waves of people. Let’s see how that pans out after a few decades. That should be in the global conscious. If China happily handles millions of sub-saharan African immigrants and it is a win-win situation, then that’s strong evidence against immigration naysayers. However, it’s it not a happy win-win situation, if they experience the problems that black-white relations have in US and South Africa and Europe, then more people will accept that this isn’t a good idea.

    - Genetic understanding and engineering seems the only really long term, happy win-win solution that doesn’t require epic wars or destruction of western civilization.

    - Generous Euro immigration of millions of desperate Africans is far easier to do than undo. If later, there is a wider realization that, “Hey, that really wasn’t a good idea, the naysayers were actually right”, it will be far harder to undo. I’d like this idea more seriously vetted before Europe opens the flood gates. South Africa, France, and even the racial black/white strife in the USA seem strong warning signs that multiculturalism may not work in the long run.

    - Inter-racial immigration is analogous to inter-racial adoption of a child in need. At first, it is heartless to turn away a teary child pleading for love. But, often the reality is a lot more work and grief than it seems. And often the child grows up and has more loyalty to their biology ancestors and race than their adopted parents who made massive sacrifice. Often adopted children have intense resentments at pressures to acknowledge adopted parent sacrifice or to reciprocate the family bond and love.

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  48. That’s not true. If you go to Tunisia, in second-tier cities (think Sfax) are full of people whose ancestry is mixed black/arab. The gradation are infinite, and they live with the rest of the population.

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  49. Long before 2100 all the wild animals (aka “bushmeat”) are going to be eaten and extinct.

    How come the environmentalists and ecologists and endangered species people aren’t screaming at the top of their lungs?

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  50. Census: Record 51 million immigrants in 8 years, will account for 82% of U.S. growth

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  51. Sub-Saharan masses do not want to settle in Tunisia, Algeria or Morocco, or even to stay in Greece or Italy, their aim is fixed on the richer northern EU welfare states. This doesn’t mean that many of them will not get stuck in northwest Africa.

    Ceuta, Spain’s exclave in Morocco, has had no end of Sub-Saharan fence-jumpers and a good many attempts by boat and even by swim from the adjacent Moroccan shores:

    Assuming this is true, then the northern Euro countries’ soft-headed suicidal stupidity is not only threatening the northern Euro countries’ future, but those of every country the demographic hordes plunder and trample and settle in along the way.

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  52. I could see a large number of blacks moving to North Africa to double their standard of living.

    Blacks don’t instantly double their GNI per capita because they move to a higher GNI location. Just as Hispanics don’t achieve average American GNI per capita when they move to the U.S.

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  53. Linear long term demographic projections of this sort are almost always wrong.

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  54. Of the 10.7 million Africans who were shipped to the Americas, only about 388,000 went to the United States. Brazil received almost 5 million. The difference was that American blacks, having landed in the richest and most humane country on earth, with the best medical care, experienced tremendous natural increase rather than dying of tropical diseases so they were able to increase by a factor of 100 to 1 (the fact that slave owners figured out that growing new slaves was a profitable business in itself didn’t hurt, but wouldn’t that have been true elsewhere as well?). If the same factor had applied in Brazil, they would have 500 million blacks today.

    I assume that conditions in Arab countries were even worse so that instead of experiencing natural increase, the slaves just died off for the most part. The same geometric progression that takes you from 400,000 to 40 million can take you from 400,000 down to 4,000 if the coefficients are negative.

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  55. Everyone here agrees. But the question is: why will it be wrong? War? Famine? Disease? Mass immigration to western nations followed by war, famine, and disease?

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  56. “Flooding Europe with Third Worlders is not the answer”
    Agreed, don’t people understand? First world European countries take care of 3rd world countries, we feed and clothe them and rush in to help when disasters strike. Right now White countries are enduring crisis after crisis because we expect them to be as prosperous and powerful filled with 3rd world races as they would be with 1st world races, that cannot and will not be true. Things will continue to get worst until the worst genocide in history occurs. Call this racist all you want, if 1st world races disappear so do first world countries, everyone will be equal, that equality will entail every country being worst than the 3rd world countries of today because there will be no super countries to help them. Billions of 3rd world people will starve and die from disease, hundreds of millions if not billions will be murdered fighting over the remaining resources that they cannot produce themselves. The only racism this world must contend with is the racist actions of those trying to erase first world countries and replace the population with 3rd world people. Facts and facts, people are different, ask yourself this – is it ok that White people are going to be gone in a hundred years or so, a couple hundred if we wait to be bred out? Can any race besides Asians sustain a civilization we are used to? Every example says no, if we continue to let third world people invade our countries Whites will cease to exist and then billions will die.

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  57. But they do achieve some percentage of the GNI of their new location. Let’s take someone moving from El Salvador (GDP per capita $8,000) to the United States ($54,000). Even if that person only earns 1/3 the US average ($18,000 or what you would earn working 35 hours/ week @ $10/hour, which is not a high threshold for a hard working immigrant) then he will still have more than doubled his income vs. back home. And remember that the immigrants are probably below average earning in their home countries so the impact is even greater. Even if the per capita GDP is $8,000, someone scratching out a living hoeing a plot of corn in a mountain village isn’t making nearly that much.

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  58. Wouldn’t seriously take the reading to 2100.
    But out to 2030, where Africa doubles up on Europe- that’s worth
    taking very seriously.That’s just 15 years away.

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  59. looks like an invasion.

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  60. “Quality of life for the average African has improved since 2000″

    and been destroyed for the average European since that time…..or so it seems.

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  61. Hey, that plot reminds me a lot of the projections for Ebola infections last fall: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w . As for the actual number: I couldn’t find it with a quick search, but the actual number of infected fit so well to an exponential curve that it was scary.

    I remember one of my lab instructors in college excitedly describing exponential curves one day: (Points left on the x-axis, where the value is still low) “Everybody lives…” (points to the right, where the curve has exploded upward) “…everybody dies!”

    While it’s an extreme simplification, that old mathematical literacy question about algae doubling its population every day and only covering half the pond on the penultimate day has always stuck with me. I wonder if Africa-to-Europe immigration numbers are seeing an exponential increase, as I heard on NPR that the number of deaths in the Mediterranean have been increasing sharply in recent years, especially after that last disaster.

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  62. How do you guys feel knowing your daughters and granddaughters are going to give birth to the children of Black Men?

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  63. There seems to be a common belief among those on this blog that Arabs are in some sense deeply racist against blacks. While this is true, these people are obsessed with their religion, and I’ve never heard of Islam condoning or justifying racist practices. In North Africa particularly, race is seen as a continuum as these populations are already heavily mixed. In Saudi Arabia, the sons of slaves have risen to the highest levels of power (Prince Bandar), and it doesn’t seem controversial.

    Therefore, I don’t think North Africans are going to put up any kind of serious resistance to their countries changing demographically.

    There may be natural xenophobia if things get too fast, but blacks will eventually blend into the population. The big distinction may be citizen versus non-citizen, depending on the state of their naturalization laws, and to what extent that concepts of citizenship even have significance on the ground in these countries.

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  64. In Roman times, parts of it were the breadbaskets of the empire.

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  65. I’m always amazed at how this obvious trolling gets through but my stuff gets Komment Kontrolled about 50% of the time.

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  66. Yes, but the GNI per capita of the host nation has to be *much* greater.

    The earlier example of sub-Saharan Africans and North Africa does not provide such a drastic difference.

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  67. ohoo did we just go into the future???!!! Marty what date is it?

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  68. Everyone here agrees.

    Everyone here should agree. But there seem to be quite a few folks who take this kind of linear projection seriously.

    But the question is: why will it be wrong? War? Famine? Disease? Mass immigration to western nations followed by war, famine, and disease?

    Who knows? There is going to be many unpredictable events and processes. One also ought not to dismiss the possibility that sub-Saharans may change (to varying degrees) in their fertility and/or predilection for migration.

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  69. But out to 2030, where Africa doubles up on Europe- that’s worth taking very seriously.That’s just 15 years away.

    Yes, since the reliability of the projection is *much* more robust the shorter the time frame.

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  70. There may be natural xenophobia if things get too fast, but blacks will eventually blend into the population.

    What makes you say that? Blacks haven’t exactly blended in anywhere in the Arab world, but instead have been relegated to lower-caste status.

    Here’s how blacks are treated in Yemen.

    In Iran (I know, not Arab, but still…) there’s a folk figure named “Haji Firuz” who bears an uncanny resemblance to the Dutch Zwarte Piet (Sinterklaas’s little helper). He is considered “Father New Year” and is represented by grinning Iranians in blackface.

    Blacks have remained racially distinct for far longer in Arab and Middle Eastern lands than in the United States. I don’t know why that would change anytime soon.

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  71. In Saudi Arabia, the sons of slaves have risen to the highest levels of power (Prince Bandar), and it doesn’t seem controversial.

    Anwar Sadat is part Sudanese and faced insults when growing up in Egypt. Didn’t stop him from becoming the paramount leader of Egypt for a while.

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  72. Sorry, I meant Sadat “was” part Sudanese.

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  73. Why? Those are medium forecast forecast – which assumes a built in decline in fertility. Why not take them serioulsy?

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  74. The data shown in that UN graph are HATE FACTS.
    I demand that you stop showing HATE FACTS, otherwise I will report you.

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  75. Every example says no, if we continue to let third world people invade our countries Whites will cease to exist and then billions will die.

    Such an appeal to the long range self interest of the Third World has about zero traction in today’s world. Most people would not hesitate to cut down the last tree on their island.

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  76. I don’t doubt that there will always be people in these countries who are distinguishably black. assortive mating based on IQ alone is enough to ensure that. Just that

    1) The lines between black and not black won’t be clear cut
    2) Race as such will never become a large political issue in these countries, even though some political entrepreneurs might try to import Western style identity politics in these countries and get favorable press from abroad

    Part of this is due to the fact that all politics in these countries is somehow based in Islam, and no major branch of that religion preaches any kind of racialism.

    Given all that, North Africa won’t put up much of a resistance to becoming significantly blacker. Algeria will probably look more and more like Sudan and the natives won’t do too much about it. Young men who want to fight will be more likely to engage in jihad and be indifferent to the demographic swamping of their countries, provided that the new invaders are the same religion. .

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  77. I have to second this view. I was in grammar school in the 1970s (in the SF bay area) and don’t recall the issue of changing demographics being anywhere on the radar. The primary minority group in my school was Filipinos. My fifth grade class in 1979 was probably roughly 16 white, 3 Filipino, 1 black.

    What we did hear a lot of, however, was how the metric system would be taking over very soon.

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  78. “Mr. Cameron stressed that any migrants saved by the U.K. would be taken to the nearest country, probably Italy, and wouldn’t have the right to apply for asylum in the U.K.”

    The Dalai Lama will stand up for Italy and say this is horribly wrong, but Europe’s own leaders are facilitating this against the will of the people. I’m stunned, just stunned.

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  79. That’s part of how Col. G/Q/K ended up face down in that ditch in 2011: he’d been importing lots of sub-saharan blacks as part of various schemes: to build up a personal black foreign bodyguard to put down indigenous rebellions, to make himself into the de facto leader of the continent, and to blackmail Berlusconi. The newcomers were unpopular.

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  80. how Arabs react to blacks swamping their countries,

    No people more richly deserves seeing “their” countries swamped than the Arabs. Cf. 7-8th centuries.

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  81. What we did hear a lot of, however, was how the metric system would be taking over very soon.

    We’ve successfully kept Napoleon at bay. Now, let’s apply that to something larger than a square yard.

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  82. You should include a curve for Asia to show the whole picture. White people need to get it in their heads that they are the world’s minority, always have been, and always will be.

    Everything our people have done should be seen by us as legitimate efforts to further our interests and to protect ourselves against overwhelming numbers. It is what every other race would do and is doing. We owe nothing to anybody.

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  83. Forrest Gump wins 1994 Best Picture Oscar

    “Life is like a box of chocolates” rings even truer in the context of this thread!

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  84. to build up a personal black foreign bodyguard to put down indigenous rebellions

    Chadian desert commandos are a highly capable bunch. Most sub-Saharan African troops are jokes, but the Chadian commandos are no jokes. They are excellent in desert terrain.

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  85. Anonymous
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    Actually I think historically blacks have been the world minority due to all the advanced agricultural areas being outside of sub-Saharan Africa and blacks practicing horticulture or lower levels of agriculture. It’s only very recently that black population growth has become significant.

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  86. Societies succeed because they’ve built up, usually over centuries, a widely accepted and practiced set of behaviors; social capital built up of predictable actions and attitudes and beliefs. The core of the culture.
    Immigrants who do not have that ingrained culture are likely to be destructive of social capital and destructive to the host society. Despite the gibberish of the lunatic left most people recognize this and quite rightly reject the attempt to destroy their society in pursuit of a crazed political fantasy.

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  87. “Run!. Forrest, Run!”

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  88. Nothing but nothing at the moment has made me more angry than hearing a bunch of shit-breeches politicians and others of that ilk such as The Economist magazine somehow try to make the comparison between the present crisis and the ‘slave trade’ – presumably meaning the Atlantic slave trade.

    It actually is analogous in that in both cases privileged elites insisted on importing Africans – to the severe detriment of the local populace.

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  89. The UN officials haven’t really thought this through.

    Of course they have. They thought about it and long ago concluded that all humans are perfectly equal and perfectly interchangeable – except for whites, whose existence is deemed to inhibit the full realization of this equality such that the replacement of whites with non-whites takes on an added urgency.

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  90. Sub-saharan Africa has a GNI per capita of $1,686.
    North Africa and the Middle East have a GNI per capita of $3,456.

    I doubt those figures include all of the Middle East, which contains giants like Saudi Arabia.

    In terms of 2014 “international dollar” purchasing power parity, the latest IMF data puts sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita GDP at $3800. Every N. African country except Morocco ($8000) has per capita GDP of over $11,000. That’s close to three times wealthier than to twice as wealthy.

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  91. NPR reporter Renee Montaigne frets, “Europe is in the grip of a xenophobic moment.” Interviewer and interviewee both furrow their brows, and agree that it may take time for the citizens of their respective countries to come to their senses by embracing the UN’s Elect A New People strategy.

    Hmm. Well, let’s see.

    xenophobia – the unreasoned fear of that which is perceived to be foreign or strange. (according to Wiki)

    fear of foreigners. Check

    unreasoned fear of foreigners. Not so much

    So what is the word for well-reasoned fear of violent parasitic foreigners?

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  92. Cameron is, of course, a lying traitorous f**k.

    He knows perfectly well that any of these seafaring enrichers, once legally settled in Italy can, if they chose, move to the UK via the EU. And there aint nothing we can do about it.

    And why should they be taken to Italy at all? Take them back to Africa, job done.

    Vote UKIP.

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  93. their fertility and/or predilection for migration

    Their predilection for migration is based almost entirely on the (non) response of western nations to that migration. If they are always stopped and/or deported their migration will be (pardon the sick pun) dead in the water.

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  94. Diversity poker Bill. Blacks easily trump animals.

    It’s not really even that, it’s that accusation of racism ie modern blasphemy trumps all else. If its a matter of non-whites starving or rare animals dying out then die out they must lest a morally pure liberal be tainted with blasphemy.

    Sooner or later the same imperative will destroy feminism, LGBT rights, environmentalism and all the rest.

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  95. well yes, a miracle could happen, but its much more likely that the last 50 thousand years of human history will play out than not. The creator of the green revolution is dead, the green revolution itself is starting to come unwound due to resource constraints, and advances in stemrot-resistant-resistant stemrot.

    Given that Europe’s future is on the line, it might behoove them to prepare for the worst.

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  96. anonymous
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    “I was in grammar school in the mid-’60′s in California and I don’t recall any such suggestion. In fact, I don’t recall anything remotely political from any of the teachers then, which is what was so great about it.”

    I know what you mean, but I wouldn’t dismiss the anecdote out of hand. By 1969 you were beginning to get some young teachers straight-out-of-school who were fired up with revolutionary fervor. I knew some and they said a lot of funny stuff. In some places 68 and 69 were very different than 60 and 61…

    I don’t really recall the metric controversy until about 1975, when the Metric Conversion Act passed.

    What I remember that disappeared almost overnight, somehow, was all the talk about the Population Bomb, Population Explosion, overpopulation, and so on. The funny thing was, I think a lot of people must have said, sure, that makes sense… only to have the reduced population immediately more than made-up-for by immigrants.

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  97. I seem to remember choice phrases from history such as

    Carthago delenda est.

    Somehow the Romans knew how to deal with African invaders. Instead of shock and awe, they had fire and salt, but their resolve still made things effective.

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  98. anonymous
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    “Chadian desert commandos are a highly capable bunch. Most sub-Saharan African troops are jokes, but the Chadian commandos are no jokes. They are excellent in desert terrain.”

    The desert commands from the Sahel seem to mostly be Tuaregs, a Berber people. They aren’t really Arab or Black. They are apparently indigenous to North Africa.

    Berbers have historically been great fighters. If Spain hadn’t been fighting a bitter war in Africa, the Rif War, during which Spain suffered notable defeats, Franco and his army wouldn’t have been in Africa and would not have been able to return to win the Spanish Civil War. Of course, without the Rif war the conditions that caused the civil war probably would not have occured.

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  99. Blacks don’t instantly double their GNI per capita because they move to a higher GNI location. Just as Hispanics don’t achieve average American GNI per capita when they move to the U.S.

    Correct you are, Mr. Anderson. This was an example of, what I like to call, “economic paint by the numbers”, I.e, the GNI is twice as high, so everyone makes twice as much. Well, this depends upon actually having employment, otherwise, in most places, your GNI is “0″.

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  100. Anonymous
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    Yup.
    As if black Africans have drunk the elixir of eternal youth.

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  101. Big bill is correct. By 2100, if these projections are accurate (doubtful, I hope), there won’t be an elephant, a gorilla, a leopard, a cheetah, a rhinoceros, a giraffe, a hippopotamus left in an Africa bulging with billions and billions of savage eaters and breeders. What a nightmare. We will need wars, famine and disease to prevent this catastrophe. Just as it ever was.

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  102. Now that would be unprecedented!

    http://eaglefeather.honors.unt.edu/2012/article/32#.VTnnlTVRVok

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  103. A thought. Perhaps those East European countries which were so, so eager to join the EU will have second thoughts about the wisdom of being subject to the dictates of Brussels and the strange Western Multikulti philosophy when they are asked to take in their “fair share” of Muslims and Africans coming to live off of them and to alter forever their cultural landscape.

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  104. The desert commands from the Sahel seem to mostly be Tuaregs, a Berber people. They aren’t really Arab or Black.

    Chadian FAS: http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/nPG2Vps-660×454.jpeg

    Do they look Berber to you?

    Berbers have historically been great fighters.

    Oh, yes. Numidian Berbers provided perhaps the best light cavalry in all of the Mediterranean world and served as a crucial element of Hannibal’s Carthaginian forces. When the Numidians switched to the Romans, it was a crippling blow for Carthage (though they got a bit uppity with the Romans later, and it took the latter a lot of effort to suppress the Numidians).

    And then of course it was an Arab-Berber dynasty that occupied Islamic Spain for much of its history.

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  105. You’re right. It is a catastrophe. But one that was largely engineered by the West through massive aid and Christian missions. They’re still at it. It is suicide-by-bleeding-hearts.

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  106. Some pictures and a graph | The Pillars of Hercules
    says:
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    […] Here’s a graph from Steve Sailer: […]

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  107. anonymous
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    It could not have been accomplished without inside assistance.

    Yes. I’m in a ‘sanctuary city’, one of many.

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  108. Somebody got their crayons out.

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  109. There are large African-American populations in the Western hemisphere from the western slave trade which are slowly being assimilated. There is no similar AA populations in the Arab world although the eastern slave trade started much earlier and went on much longer. There are two reasons, Arab slave traders did not want female slaves and the male slaves were castrated.

    The last part of this is completely wrong. (Just at the level of “common knowledge”, i don’t claim to even be an amateur historian of the Islamic world or the Islamic slave trade.)

    Huge numbers of black Africans–exact numbers unknown, but millions–were enslaved during the trade, and women were definitely desired. (Women are actually superior slaves for most purposes outside of hard labor because they are way, way, way more *compliant*. ) Black women were in household service and they were not left “unmolested” as well as being used directly as concubines.

    It’s true that for those who could afford it there was–these guys weren’t idiots–a preference for Caucasian women in the harems. Well known is the desire (probably puffed up by slave trader marketing) for Circassian Women. The Ottomans enslaved probably a couple million Slavs as well. As well as Christians captured in their invasions and captured from Mediterranean raids and piracy.

    But black women were certainly in common use as concubines and household servants and were properly enjoyed. As Dave Pinsen pointed out, Prince Bandar’s (Bandar Bush) mother Khiziran was not just black she was a *slave*–slavery still legal in Saudi Arabia at the time–a housemaid impregnated at 16 by Prince (the late crown prince) Sultan bin Abdulaziz. I’d suggest that if the top of the Saudi monarchy was enjoying the African help … lots of folks were doing it.

    I’ve read nothing to indicate that male slaves were routinely castrated. Castration was, of course, routine for male slaves to be used in service around the harem. But i’d otherwise suspect it was atypical–or at least not routine–for men enslaved as soldiers or labors. (I await education to the contrary.)

    I can’t claim to have read any of the genetic studies, but i’m certain there’s been a definite genetic impact from the Islamic slave trade on middle eastern DNA. In some Arabs it is visually obvious. I’d bet it shows up clearly in diversity of (female line) mtDNA.

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  110. I don’t think so. The Sudan has a predominantly negroid population and there’s a great deal in Mauritania. There is some in Oman. I do not think it’s visible elsewhere.

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  111. SOLUTION TO THE ALIEN INVASION–BINDING SUPERSEDING NATIONAL REFERENDA.

    Thanks for the great article. I agree with you, Africans are going to flood Europe and attack and kill Whites and sexually assault all the white women. The end of the white Europe and USA are imminent.

    The crooked EU and US politicians are allowing this invasion. They could use the navy and armed forces to guard borders, stop giving visas and asylums (most applications are fake) and ban immigration, but they are too corrupt and evil to care about their own country. They must have been bribed, of course, or why would they allow 3rd world aliens to invade their country?

    But there is one great solution: It is a constitutional amendment to allow irreversible binding superseding national referenda, so people can pass good laws in the national interest themselves. These laws will supersede laws passed by Congress or Parliaments and Sup. Ct. rulings and cannot be overturned except on constitutional grounds by a supermajority of both houses and a unanimous vote of the Supreme Court. The people can thereupon override them with a 66% vote.

    That way, the people can ban immigrant themselves and pass other laws to stop this invasion. Whites must have 10 children each also, in the meantime.

    Laws that affect the nation as a whole, such as immigration, EU membership, etc. must be approved by the people first.

    For eg., see:

    National Citizen’s Initiative for Democracy: http://ncid.us/index.htm

    http://www.iandrinstitute.org/National%20I&R.htm

    We Americans (and Europeans and Australians and Canadians) need to visit these websites, join these groups, contribute and call radio talk shows, etc. and promote this idea and get the process started soon, before it is too late or America (and similarly Europe/Canada/Australia), as we know it, will be finished.

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  112. It would seem that many of these societies are actually organized more along lines of clan rather than religion, otherwise they’d be more harmonious since most of them are overwhelmingly Sunni muslim. You’re right that there doesn’t seem to be a clear color barrier in North Africa, but it’s also probably true that having obvious sub-Saharan features is still more likely to mark someone as an outsider, especially if large numbers of black Africans suddenly start to show up there in the future.

    In Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, there’re lots of foreign workers from places like Bangladesh; and even though they’re mostly muslim, it seems like most of the natives tolerate, more than appreciate them. Many of them also look noticeably different and don’t speak good Arabic, not to mention that they’re often perceived as being lower class. The fact that in some of these places the foreigners outnumber the locals, is also likely to cause future friction, especially if they ever democratize. Islam may be a universalist religion, but muslims still seem to exhibit most of the same biases and self-interestedness that characterizes people from around the world and even to an extent in “liberal” Western countries. In North Africa, Tunisia’s response to mass immigration will be the most interesting to watch, since it’s the only country in the region that’s relatively democratic.

    In Prince Bandar’s case, the fact that his father was a Saudi prince, is probably more important than that his mother was black, or partly black.

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  113. Probably not, I live in Kuwait, and have been to 3 other M.E. countries, and I would estimate that about 30-40% of Kuwaitis are somewhat African (although they would not admit it). In Egypt the number is probably about 80%.

    Keep in mind that modern Kuwaitis are descended from isolated desert Bedouin tribes. There are 100% Africans who were afforded Kuwaiti citizenship from day one of the country.

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  114. Looks like a graph from the population bomb

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  115. I remember back in the 60′s in grammar school the teachers told us that the US was projected to become majority non-white by 2050.

    Do you have any documentation for this? If true, it would be quite damning.

    I spent several of those years in grade schools in Hawaii, which was already majority nonwhite, and never heard anything of the sort there.

    A significant number of my classmates were mixed-race, yet “café-au-lait” talk was also unknown.

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  116. You live in Kuwait?

    Wow.

    So you’re among the 1% ?

    Possibly even the 1/10th of 1%?

    Yet you always side, in post after post after post, with the undertow? With Trayvon Martin? With Michael Brown?

    Noted.

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  117. Future population projections are always off. Way off. This one is too. Africa will never top 2 billion people. Pick your four horsemen poison, one of them will be running amok in Africa long before Africa hits this silly projection of 4 billion people by 2100.

    But I applaud Steve’s emphasizing the importance of the population in Africa running amok. It is happening and I don’t see any chance of voluntary birth control by Africans. You could hand out free birth control pills with ice cream Sundays and it still wouldn’t work. They think lots of babies are their best insurance policy for their old age.

    God have mercy on the Africans born in the 21st century because they are screwed. I wish I had answers but there aren’t any. We haven’t seen misery of the magnitude that is coming soon to Africa. It is just very sad.

    Please keep writing about this coming population explosion in Africa Steve. It is very big underreported news.

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  118. Sadly I don’t think logic alone with change people’s minds. Violence is also likely to play an increasing part – increasing terrorism and immigrant crime (directed mostly at Jews, liberals and lone white women) coupled with more Anders Breiverks going postal on the White side.

    High unemployment and underemployment coupled with soaring welfare costs will inevitably produce more lonely, angry and resentful people.

    There’s also the potential that Muslims and white nationalists will start shifting to biological warfare and economic sabotage. Penalties for economic crime are minimal, yet the potential to damage infrastructure through sabotage is huge. For example, abandon an old banger in rush hour traffic on a major bridge and you’ve caused hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of damage for next to nothing. If fact you probably wouldn’t even get caught if you worn a basic disguise.

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  119. Albete says:
    That must be counting country of citizenship. If you count ethnicity, wouldn’t the European population be declining, due to their sub-replacement fertility?
    Yes. European populations have been experiencing declining fertility. There are a variety of reasons. Fertility generally goes down over the long span as societies become more affluent, and people seek to pass on more wealth to less children. But certain cultural choices also have an impact. White people are increasingly homosexual, increasingly marrying later, and over time depending on the start line, increasingly having abortions. Take Russia, a white nation. Under communism, Russian DECLINING fertility rates have been a long standing trend, as the white communist regime disparaged traditional marriage and promoted abortion. After communism, the same trend still continues. Even today, white people have the highest relative abortion rates in the world- Russia- which kills two white babies for each live birth. Much scare-mongering re “vast invasion hordes” conveniently overlooks the internal corruption and decadence that is at the heart of European decline.

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  120. Wilkey says:
    First world European countries take care of 3rd world countries, we feed and clothe them and rush in to help when disasters strike.

    Laughable pablum. The First World aid always has an agenda, and extracts a nice payoff for any aid given, and that aid is a nice bit of change in the pockets of numerous first world trough feeders. For one thing, much of the “aid” given has been in the form of loans, with profitable reams of interest being raked in by the European bankers. Second numerous white non-profits & bureaucrats make a nice living “helping” the Third World. Most of the cash does not reach the man on the street but is diverted further up the ladder for administrators, consultants, non-profit functionaries and other miscellaneous white processors of paper.

    Third, “aid” is often with strings attached- which including sweetheart contracts where only certain favored white vendors and cronies are used. Fourth, “aid” given is often in exchange for other favors- such as military bases, farmed-out torture camps- er “rendition centers”, or votes in various UN disputes. White people ain’t giving nothing away for free. Those who piously claim to be “helping” the Third World, are most often, helping themselves- and that’s the conclusion of numerous conservative analysts.

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  121. drying up of funds allocated towards Africa.

    That will not stop it, only war and famine or emigration will stop it and stop it, it will. When the unpredictable East African drought comes along famine will reign and the populations will move to the wetter west. I don’t think that will be peaceful and orderly. Do you?

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  122. Actually Howell simply has no idea what he is talking about. Africa’s population is not 7 to 8 times that of Europe, but in any event a population 7 to 8 times larger, in a place as big as Africa, which is itself larger than Europe is nothing special. China has way more people than Europe- so what- yawn.

    And Europe has had plenty of famine, war and plague. Let’s see- there was a war that killed almost 3o million Europeans not so long ago, including systematic mass murder of 6 million Jews, and countless wars before that. And let’s see again- oh yes. The Thirty years War for example was one of the longest, most destructive conflicts in European history. It saw the devastation of entire regions, with famine and disease significantly decreasing the population of the German and Italian states, the Kingdom of Bohemia, and the Low Countries. The war also bankrupted most of the combatant powers. Both mercenaries and soldiers in armies were expected to fund themselves by looting or extorting tribute, which imposed severe hardships on the inhabitants of occupied territories.

    So much for touted European, um, “role models.”

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  123. geometric progression .
    if the coefficients are negative.

    The coefficient of castration is negative and very high.

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  124. So much for touted European, um, “role models.”

    Then they don’t need to go to Europe, then, do they

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  125. Anonymous
    says:
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    Famine – very rarely happens like may 2 times in a decade; there is instead high levels of malnourishment; often times food emergencies (short of the disaster of famine)
    Wars – Significantly down from the high point of African wars in the 1990s
    Plague – Health not declining in Africa (HIV not increasing)

    Not much real analysis in this thread.

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  126. I don’t know Steve, the rate the West is going, the left is going to drive the us into an economic collapse in the not too distant future, the gravy train to Africa (and Africans in our midst) is gonna stop, and the black population is going to crater. The current state of things, and the rate it is getting worse is simply unsustainable much further out. Without YT paying for their fecundity, a lot of baby mamas are going to have to make some hard choices.

    Things have a way of balancing themselves out over time. Liberals defied the laws of nature this long only because there was so much wealth and technology built by white men that they could sit around like lotus eating Stepford wives oblivious to the consequences of the real world. Crush the goose that lays the golden egg, and it all comes crashing down.

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  127. anonymous
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    “I think it’s important for us not to put too much stock in projections 90 years into the future.”

    Yep… so it’s worth concentrating on the part of the graph between about 1990 and 2015. The rest of the graph doesn’t matter so much, specially the “future” part… Just eyeballing things, in 1990 Africa had about 80% the population of Europe. In 2015 Africa looks like it has about 180% the population of Europe. That’s a trend that catches the eye.

    “Hi, there, Citizen! This just in! In 100 years global warming is going to increase the surface temperature of the earth by 1, 2, 3, maybe 4 degrees! We’re all going to die! The only solution is control of everything by your benevolent government, always working so hard to look out for you. You’ve got no choice, you’ve got to get with the program, it’s that important!

    Oh, that huge swing in immigration? Not to worry, that stuff never matters. Besides, all these projections about the future are silly. No one knows about the future, because in the future we will all be living in the future. Only evil, hateful racists who don’t want us to dispense the goodness that only we can provide if we stay in total control would even worry about predictions into the future.”

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  128. anonymous
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    “Chadian FAS: http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/nPG2Vps-660×454.jpeg

    Do they look Berber to you?”

    No, those guys look like the guys fighting the Berbers (with French assistance). Gaddhafi’s commandos from Chad were Tuaregs. Speaking of peace on earth, the
    Chad civil war (2005-2010), reveals familiar patterns:

    “…Since its independence from France in 1960, Chad has been swamped by the civil war between the Arab-Muslims of the north and the Sub-Saharan-Christians of the south.”

    The war

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  129. So you’re among the 1% ?

    Possibly even the 1/10th of 1%?

    Not top 1% in America or Kuwait, not even CLOSE to top 1/10 of 1%. Just a contractor getting a good deal for a year or two.

    And for the umpteenth time, I’m not siding with these men, the point is, what fun is preaching to the choir?

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  130. It could be argued that Europe’s failure to get its own demographic house in order makes it inevitable. Europeans are increasingly homosexual, increasingly marrying later, and over time depending on the start line, increasingly having abortions. Take Russia, a white nation. Under communism, Russian DECLINING fertility rates have been a long standing trend, as the white communist regime disparaged traditional marriage and promoted abortion. After communism, the same trend still continues. Even today, white people have the highest relative abortion rates in the world- Russia- which kills two white babies for each live birth. Much scare-mongering re “vast invasion hordes” conveniently overlooks the internal corruption and decadence that is at the heart of European decline.

    But there is another reason the migrants feel emboldened to come. Some European elites may actually welcome them. No not the usual liberals, but conservatives. Said migrants represent a pool of cheap labor that can be profitably exploited. This labor will serve low-tier needs while Europeans control the mid and high end slots in the economy. This suits conservatives quite well. In fact some see the migrants as a welcome dose of labor market reality, and flexibility, in bloated, expensive union-heavy European workforces. And the migrants themselves provide a growth segment in the consumer market for a variety of goods and services supplied by European entrepreneurs. And finally the migrants will also expand overall output and thus help pay for the social security systems demanded by aging Europe.

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  131. Indeed. Which is precisely why some European conservatives, though not too open about it, actually welcome the African immigration. They are disgusted with the overly expensive, bloated union-heavy European workforce, and the migrants represent a new does of cheap, productive labor that can end-run much of that. But at the same time, medium and high end slots in the economy will be controlled mostly by Europeans, as the immigrants fill the lower tier. And given cultural patterns and differences, the number of intermarriages will be small- a few movie stars and sports figures and such, or some low end outliers, but trivial overall. In addition, the expanded output brought by the new migrants will help pay for the bloated pension and social security systems demanded by aging Europeans. This is a win-win for some European conservatives.

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  132. 2) Race as such will never become a large political issue in these countries, even though some political entrepreneurs might try to import Western style identity politics in these countries and get favorable press from abroad
    Actually race is always an issue in the Arab world. See the Yemen link and see the experiences of blacks in Egypt and other places deemed “Arab.” So-called “brotherhood” is thin on the ground. An finally see the example of Anwar Sadat, who was condemned by some fellow Egyptians for being “too black” – as his father was a southern Egyptian and his mother Sudanese. He was dubbed “Nasser’s black poodle” by some.When a black American actor, Lou Gossett in the 1980s portrayed Sadat, it caused a storm of outrage in Egypt. The Egyptian government banned the film. Gossett apparently was “not white enough.”

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U-4cD0wzEjY/VNg64GX0KiI/AAAAAAAABXg/NA-hINVxPNQ/s1600/sadat_tooblack.jpg

    Part of this is due to the fact that all politics in these countries is somehow based in Islam, and no major branch of that religion preaches any kind of racialism.
    Islam has always been racialist, even openly racist. The Prophet Muhamed himself as a merchant handled trades of slaves. His chief city Mecca was serviced by black slaves who handled everything from garbage collection to hauling water and firewood. Assorted Muslim hadiths themselves insist on the Prophet’s whiteness, counting it a great insult to say otherwise. Muhammed’s muezzim Bilal was black, but this did not lead the Prophet to free his enslaved black brothers. Indeed Muhammed companions insulted Bilal over his blackness. When the Prophet died, even the minimal less than polite masks came off, and the black man, who had rendered such noble service to the cause, was exiled. Whoops..

    And finally Arabs have been wide distributors of such bogus notions as the “curse of Ham,” something Moses never said in his writings. Compare Arab and later Jewish dreck to the original writings of Moses. Moses the Lawgiver credited blacks with the great civilizations of Egypt (Mizraim), Cush (Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Mesopotamia), and himself married a Cushite. He pronounced no “curse of Ham” instead simply noting prophecy that the Hebrew ex-slaves who came out of Egypt would overrun another Hamitic branch of people- the Canaanites of Palestine- “servant of servants shall he be” – specifically refers to Canaan, not Mizraim or Cush. And so it happened with the Hebrew ex-servants who conquered Palestine.

    The greatest black slave rebellion of all time, made by blacks forced to drain the malarial salt marshes of southern Iraq, was against Arabs- the Zanj rebellion that cut a wide swathe of destruction in the Middle East. Their strike for freedom, and the devastation they wrought, is credited with providing a deterrent against further large scale deployment of black slaves en-masse in Islam. The black freedom fighters even invaded Iran, capturing some cities there, and almost captured Baghdad, then one of the foremost cities in Islam. Alleged Arab “brotherhood” has oft been thin on the ground.

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  133. The only thing wrong with your proposal is that liberal loving whites, including wimmen, may not vote along the lines that you hope. They gave Clinton 44% of the vote, Obama around 42-43%. Where you gonna get your 66% whiteness majority vote from?

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  134. There’s a vile in the safe in Cheney’s office
    And the contents will surely save the World
    The Funeral business will be booming.
    and we’ll all be together down in Hell

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  135. ANON 502 SAYS:
    “Chadian desert commandos are a highly capable bunch. Most sub-Saharan African troops are jokes, but the Chadian commandos are no jokes. They are excellent in desert terrain.”

    Nonsense. Most Chadians are themselves of “sub-Saharan” African origin, and indeed a large swathe of the country lies below the fluctuating “sub-Saharan” desert line, and the much touted Libyan “Berber” or Arab troops were themselves routed by these Chadians in the 1980s despite having fighter jets, tanks and heavy artillery.

    Bill says:
    The desert commands from the Sahel seem to mostly be Tuaregs, a Berber people. They aren’t really Arab or Black. They are apparently indigenous to North Africa.
    “Tuareg” are a “Berber” people. Berber is a language family not a racial one, but if race were at issue there are plenty of “black” Tuareg.

    .
    Twinkie says:
    Do they look Berber to you?
    http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/nPG2Vps-660×454.jpeg

    Keep in mind that there are plenty of “black” Berbers depending on the country examined. Berber is a language category not a racial one. As for the Chadians – as one military analyst notes of the Chadian performance against the Libyan Arabs or Berbers:

    ‘In contrast, Chadian forces possessed nothing more sophisticated than a handful of older Western armored cars, and mostly relied on Toyota pick-up trucks mounting crew-served infantry weapons. The Chadians had no tanks, no APCs, no artillery, no air force, no infantry weapons heavier than the Milan antitank guided missile, and only the complicated and ineffectual Redeye shoulder-launched surface-to-air missile (SAM) for air defence, What’s more, the Chadians did not operate their weaponry very well. Nevertheless, an army of as many as 20,000 Libyans was demolished by 10,000 Chadian regulars and 20,000 tribal militia during eight months of fighting.”
    –Ken Pollack, Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness 1948–1991

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  136. Actually I think historically blacks have been the world minority due to all the advanced agricultural areas being outside of sub-Saharan Africa and blacks practicing horticulture or lower levels of agriculture. It’s only very recently that black population growth has become significant.
    Nonsense. In fact agriculture itself has an independent invention in Africa, and it is one of the world centers of domestication, just as other areas of the world independently developed agriculture. And people were practicing advanced plow agriculture in “sub-Saharan” Africa for millennia, as Ethiopia and parts of the Nilotic Sudan attest. You simply do not know what you are talking about. And Africans pioneered such techniques as decrue, or flood basin agriculture to capture river waters, a technique used in ancient Egypt. Indeed Egypt was founded by tropical Africans from the south as credible scholars have long shown (Bard 2000, Lovell 1999, Morkot 2005, Zakrewski 2004/2007, Raxter and Ruff 2008, et al, et al). Almost 20% of Egypt itself falls within the tropical zone by the way.

    In fact these same tropical Africans using a mix of cereal production, pastoralism and wildland harvesting, produced one of the highest relatively population densities in the world for their era compared to contemporaries, and this was before the Dynastic era (–Pinhasi and Stock 2011. Human Bioarchaelogy of the Transition to Agriculture)

    As for population, sure. Africa has always been relatively underpopulated until very recent times. But its population gains are dwarfed by Asia.

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  137. “Hi, there, Citizen! This just in! In 100 years global warming is going to increase the surface temperature of the earth by 1, 2, 3, maybe 4 degrees! We’re all going to die! The only solution is control of everything by your benevolent government, always working so hard to look out for you. You’ve got no choice, you’ve got to get with the program, it’s that important!”

    Heh. That was good.

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  138. anonymous
    says:
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    “The greatest black slave rebellion of all time, made by blacks forced to drain the malarial salt marshes of southern Iraq, was against Arabs- the Zanj rebellion…”

    Zani Rebellion:

    “…over a period of fifteen years (AD 869–883). The insurrection is believed to have involved enslaved Bantus (Zanj) that had originally been captured from the African Great Lakes region and areas further south in East Africa. It grew to involve over 500,000 slaves and free men who were imported from across the Muslim empire and claimed over “tens of thousands of lives in lower Iraq”…

    …As the plantation economy boomed and the Arabs became richer, agriculture and other manual labor work was thought to be demeaning. The resulting labor shortage led to an increased slave market.”

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  139. anonymous
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    About Chad, Libya and the so-called Toyota War. The role of France can’t be ignored, without the weapons they supplied things likely would have turned out different. And it looks like maybe the Tuaregs sat most of it out?

    “…Libya… lost one tenth of its army, with 7,500 men killed and US$1.5 billion worth of military equipment destroyed or captured. Chadian losses were 1,000 men killed.

    …By 1987… Muammar Gaddafi had lost his allies, exposing Libya’s inadequate knowledge of the area. Libyan garrisons came to resemble isolated and vulnerable islands…

    …while FANT previously had no air power… by 1987 it could count on the French Air Force to keep Libyan aircraft grounded and, more importantly, to provide 400 highly mobile Toyota pickups equipped with MILAN anti-tank guided missiles.

    …the offensive against FANT had exposed the vulnerability of Libya’s heavy armor to a more mobile enemy. …”

    Old T-55 tanks were no match for Milans… It might not have just been the French… “France and the United States had equipped the FANT…”

    Once they lost French air-cover (after Chad invaded Libya) and the Libyans adopted FANT tactics, the FANT was no longer as invincible:

    “..This victory–the first by Libyan ground forces since the start of the Toyota War–was apparently achieved through close-range air strikes, which were followed by ground troops advancing cross-country in jeeps, Toyota all-terrain trucks, and light armored vehicles. …the assault represented a conversion to the desert warfare tactics developed by FANT. …”

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  140. “White people are increasingly homosexual”

    Don’t you mean white homosexuals are increasingly powerful and conspicuous, so non-homosexuals are increasing neurotic and self-conscious. If anything, heterosexual guys are increasingly going out of their way to dress and act like slobs and ape black culture to prove they aren’t prissy homosexuals.

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  141. Anonymous
    says:
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    You’re understanding of economics is very, very limited.
    The central axiom of economics is that no economy can consume more that it produces. That’s why the ‘holy grail’ of economics is the concept known as ‘productivity’, which more or less explains why Luxembourg is a desirable place and Bangladesh isn’t.
    Now, adding more low productivity people to an nation makes it more Bangladesh and not Luxembourg.
    As for your ‘point’ concerning low birth rates and ‘labor shortages’, well the problem facing Europe now is mass unemployment, despite decade after decade of sub par reproduction. This seems to indicate to me that, structurally, Europe is permanently geared NOT to accept high birth rates.

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  142. Anonymous
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    Who are these ‘European conservatives’ you pontificate about. I do not know of any who fit that description.
    ‘Conservative’ means ‘keeping things as they are’ that is keeping the racial stock of the nation the way it has always been. Hence in Britain, UKIP are the *real* conservative party.
    Anyhow, any one who really and truly thinks that black Africans are efficient and dedicated workers is delusional. They have appalling unemployment rates in every European nation they’ve infiltrated.

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  143. Arabs are racialist/racist against dark skinned Africans-everyone knows that. One Somali immigrant in Saudi Arabia was telling the story of how in a mosque, the imam said that African women do not have to meet the obligation to wear a face cover as they are ugly anyway. He was stunned.

    Having said that, Bilal to this day is a revered figure in the Arab and Asian world, with millions of Arabs and Asians named after him.

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  144. Anonymous
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    For a guy with the moniker of ‘truth’ you seem to do some incredible mental cartwheels to avoid it.

    Somewhere deep, deep down I think you get it though.

    It’s difficult I’m sure, but I believe on some level you have the capacity to understand reality…even if it’s not something easy or pleasant to confront.

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  145. Please feel free to enlighten me. What don’t I understand?

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  146. Regarding the pensions of “aging Europeans”, what makes you think the imported “New Europeans” will wish to have money taken out of their wages to hand over to a bunch of old “racist” white people? Third World immigration is the problem not the solution. Pay politicans less, force them to create jobs for our youth who will then start having larger familes. Problem solved, now turn back the dinghies.

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  147. Blame whitey even for whitey’s problems. True and very true but utterly useless information. Right now there most certainly IS a an invasion. As a whitey, I am ready to do something about it.

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  148. But, Africa has been improving in living standard pretty steadily though. Some countries have issues now and then but still improving overall.

    Just go look at the HDI trends, and birth rates are falling in most of them.

    Botswana and Gabon are even above South Africa in HDI now.

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  149. Yeah, what was it Hillary said?
    “We came, we conquered, he died.”
    She forgot the next part, and the floodgates of immigration opened. No one mentions the unannounced deal Gaddafi had with Europe. “I’ll stop the boat people from Libya if you legitimize me.”

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  150. Anonymous
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    “most humane country on earth”

    Lol

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  151. Can the Ossis save Europe? Part 3 of 3 | The Occidental Observer - White Identity, Interests, and Culture
    says:
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    […] Europe to the teeming masses of Africa, even as that continent’s population is expected to reach a terrifying 4.2 billion by the end of the century, and even though no nation anywhere in the world has succeeded in happily […]

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  152. There are 2 definitions at work here and rarely do they meet! Bilad es Sudan means Africa (north to south) and the designation with the white Eurocentric sub Saharan definition and descriptive pretending Arab and other Africa are separate countries and continents is bogus but again say something enough times, despite the lies, often makes them truth!

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  153. That’s a switch! Why invest in a people who are known to be lazy, incapable of work, provide an economy comprised of their skill and workmanship, invest in their work ethic for 2000 years (at least in USA) get a high ROI on their displacement form the native lands and then pretend they were never worth it in the first place? Sounds like sour grapes to me and a high dose of cognitive dissonance! Typical white anglo psychology! worthy of psychiatric scholarship and research.
    A committee is in order to investigate this!

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  154. Berber (Tamazigh!) is not or never was about phenotype but language. Based on their former pastoral nomadic lifestyle, they looked like the peoples they remained in contact with over time. It is only Eurocentrist notions of stupididty that dumbfounds the true nature of such peioples in their native environemnt that does a disservice to their social importance.

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  155. Africa's population growth, the root of the refugee problem, and the Swedish rape epidemic (#3) | Human Stupidity: Irrationality, Self Deception
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    […] The World’s most important Graph [67] […]

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  156. “A Europe of Nations”: Marine Le Pen’s Plan for the Old Continent : REPORTCOIN
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    […] Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (New York: 2015), and Steve Sailer, “The World’s Most Important Graph,” iSteve, April 23, […]

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  157. “A Europe of Nations”: Marine Le Pen’s Plan for the Old Continent | The Occidental Observer - White Identity, Interests, and Culture
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    […] Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (New York: 2015), and Steve Sailer, “The World’s Most Important Graph,” iSteve, April 23, […]

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  158. Alternate Scenarios: The World’s Most Important Graph – PA
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    […] are probably familiar with Steve Sailer’s “World’s Most Important Graph,” which projects Europe’s and Africa’s population growth based on current […]

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