From the Ettinger Report:
The Jewish-Arab demographic about-face
November 10, 2017
In 2017, Israel is the only advanced economy and Western democracy endowed with a relatively high fertility rate, which facilitates further economic growth with no reliance on migrant labor. Moreover, Israel’s thriving demography provides for bolstered national security (larger classes of recruits) and a more confident foreign policy.
In contrast to conventional demographic wisdom, Israel is not facing a potential Arab demographic time bomb. In fact, the Jewish State benefits from a robust Jewish demographic tailwind.
At the outset of 2017, for the first time – and in defiance of projections made by Israel’s demographic establishment since the early 1940s – Israel’s Jewish [total] fertility rate (3.16 births per woman) exceeds Israel’s Arab rate of fertility (3.11). Actually, in 2017, Israel’s fertility rate is higher than most Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia – 2.1 births per woman, Kuwait – 2.4, Syria – 2.5, Morocco – 2.1, etc.).
The Westernization of the Arab fertility rate has also been in effect in Judea and Samaria
What is Judea and Samaria? The West Bank or Israel? I feel dumb not knowing this; on the other hand, I know a lot of other stuff because I haven’t devoted much time to the endless verbiage over this dispute.
: from 5 births per Arab woman in 2000 to about 3 in 2016; from a median age of 17 in 2000 to 21 in 2017.
The substantial, systematic Westernization of Arab fertility – from 9.5 births per woman in 1960 to 3.11 in 2016 – has been a derivative of the accelerated integration of Israeli Arabs into modernity, in general, and the enhanced status of Israel’s Arab women, in particular. …
At the same time, since 1995, there has been an unprecedented rise in the rate of Jewish fertility – especially in the secular sector – resulting from a relatively-high level of optimism, patriotism, attachment to national roots and collective/communal responsibility.
From 80,400 Jewish births in 1995, the number surged to 139,400 in 2016, while the annual number of Arab births remained stable at around 41,000. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the 73% rise in the number of Jewish births took place despite the mild decline of ultra-orthodox fertility (due to expanded integration into the employment market, higher learning and the military) and the stabilized modern-orthodox fertility, but due to the rising fertility of the secular Jewish sector.
Okay, but the percentage of Israeli Jews who are ultra-orthodox has gone up, so even if their fertility has undergone a mild decline, they might still be driving up overall Jewish fertility, right?
The unprecedented tailwind behind Israel’s burgeoning Jewish demography is documented by the proportion of Jewish births in the country: 77% of total births in 2016, compared with 69% in 1995. Also, in 2016, there were 3.2 Jewish births per Arab birth, compared to 2.2 births in 1995.
The increase in the number of Israeli Jews is having a cultural impact around the world, both in countries where they are starting to emulate Israeli thinking (e.g., Trump in America) and more directly by Israeli immigrants or binationals.
For example, Marvel, much in the news lately for Black Panther, was bought in 1996 by two Six Days War vets. Marvel’s main actresses include Natalie Portman, born in Israel, and Scarlett Johansson, who took to endorsing SodaStream, manufactured in the West Bank. DC finally turned itself around in 2017 by casting Gal Gadot, an Israeli Defense Force veteran, as Wonder Woman.