The Unz Review - Mobile

The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection

A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 iSteve Blog
The Graph That Explains the 2015 Migrant Crisis
And another graph that explains the migrant crises of 2016-2100

Email This Page to Someone


 Remember My Information



=>

Population 1950-2015-b

The demographers of the United Nation’s Population Division have quietly released their World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision report.

Above is a graph I put together from their new data that explains much about the “Migrant Crisis” of 2015.

As you can see, way back in 1950, the population of the Middle East was only 18% as great as the population of Europe, while Sub-Saharan Africa was only 33% as large. Even in 2000, the Middle East had only 49% of the population of Europe, while Africa had almost caught up to Europe with 88% of its population.

But from 2000 to 2015, the Middle East added 124 million people, making it now 65% as populous as Europe.

In this century alone, Sub-Saharan Africa has added 320 million people, making it 130% as populated as Europe.

Some of this information about the past is new. For example, the U.N.’s estimate of the population of the continent of Africa back in 2010 has grown by 13 million people, or over 1% between the 2012 Revision and the 2015 Revision. When it comes to population, the past just isn’t what it used to be.

But what about the future?

As a general pattern, the U.N. has found, the completeness of the counts tends to be worse in the fastest growing countries. Thus, the harder the U.N. has looked at Africa in this decade, the more people and more new babies it keeps uncovering.

It turns out that while the total fertility rate in Africa is falling, it’s falling quite a bit more slowly than the U.N. had expected before its disturbing 2012 Revision.

Sub-Saharan Africa simply isn’t behaving like the rest of the world:

Screenshot 2015-09-19 16.44.14

This U.N. map of total fertility rates can be found here. I reviewed the deep structure reasons for Sub-Saharan Africa’s anomalously high fertility here.

The upward adjustment in Africa’s population projections in the 2012 Revision of World Population Prospects came as a shock. But the 2015 Revision forecasts Africa’s population in 2100, about one lifetime from now, to be another 5% higher than the U.N. projected just back in 2012.

And here’s my full graph of the U.N.’s 2015 Revision numbers:

Population 1950-2100-b

Wow.

The U.N. now projects that, despite lower fertility in some Muslim countries such as Iran, the population of the Middle East will surpass that of Europe in 2045 and reach 937 million by 2100.

As for Sub-Saharan Africa, the U.N. foresees the population growing to 3,935,000,000 (3.9 billion and change) by 2100. (The total population of Africa and the Middle East will be 4,872,000,000.)

That’s probably not going to happen due to some combination of (A) intelligent self-restraint, (B) mass migration, and (C) Malthusian Nightmares (war, famine, disease, etc. etc.) keeping the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2100 from being more than six times as great as Europe, which would be an 18-fold increase in 150 years.

Keep in mind that there’s not a one to one relationship between population growth and emigration. In general, people try to assess whether the future at home looks brighter than the present. But people in Africa and the Middle East can see their countries’ futures will be more crowded and constrained.

Personally, I hope the reason that this graph doesn’t prove accurate is largely (A) intelligent self-restraint. But at present, white people don’t seem to be making much of an effort to facilitate and encourage reasonable family planning in Africa. Because that would be, you know, racist.

Which is the worst thing in the world, much worse than the U.N.’s population forecast.

 

206 Comments to "The Graph That Explains the 2015 Migrant Crisis"

Commenters to Ignore
Agrees/Disagrees Only
[Filtered by Reply Thread]
  1. It looks to me as if Philippe Rushton’s models for species propagation by race are being proved correct as we watch.

    • Agree: wolfy
    • Replies: , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  2. When I see that graph I just see “this is how it all ends”.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  3. (B) mass migration

    Not much of a solution if the home country keeps pouring forth ever more blessed souls.

    I would think that if the West if expected to take in these bodies, the West should have a say in how many persons are ultimately produced.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  4. I like graphs as much as the next person but what’s harder to graph is the state of mind that produces reactions to migration like this (where Merkel says “This is not my country” at about :45, from gates of Vienna):

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  5. Looks like a great growth opportunity for Planned Parenthood.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  6. This is really depressing. Let’s change the topic. Stevie, have you tried shrimp and fried rice? That be delicious.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  7. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    The only way for survival in the future will be a world of border controls, barbed-wire walls and other such measures to prevent the fecund third worlders from bum-rushing their way in. It seems to have started already. Allowing them in within the gates would be a fatal mistake. I’m not very sanguine about the average American coming to realize this since many if not most have internalized the PC propaganda that’s been fed to them all these years. After all, the Clintons themselves applauded the coming nonwhite majority. Talking to your average American is usually a frustrating experience.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  8. South Africas fertility raate has plunged in the last 40 years despite the general stupidity of its population, so there is hope for the rest of Africa.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  9. Mr Sailer has done an extraordinary job of examining the problem. Now it’s time for solutions. Mass small arms distribution? Universal birth control regimes? It’s time to figure this out and this is likely the political climate to do it.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. The Saudi’s used to grow a lot of wheat. They announced the other day that next year’s crop will be the last. They’ve exhausted the aquifer that supplied the water to both Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Saudi Arabia can get by but Yemen’s 25 million people, even if there was no war, are going to be looking for gas stations and ghetto store locations in America… if the Palestinians or Pakistanis haven’t gotten there first!

    Iran is drying up too. It was always an arid place but when you quintuple the population over 50 years you exhaust your water resources fast. Makes me wonder why Obama didn’t ask them where they are going to get the water to cool those nuclear power plants they are building?

    Sub Saharan Africa probably has the land and water resources to support a couple of billion people but whether it has the organizational and engineering skill to build large scale irrigation systems is doubtful. It will have to be done for them assuming they allow it and can agree on some regional cooperation to move water to where it is needed.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  11. History tells us a few things about human migration. One is that the local population initially resists the newcomers vigorously, but that they soon tire and then seek an accommodation. If the math does not reward these efforts, in other words more migrants keep coming, the pendulum swings wildly the other way and it becomes a bloodbath.

    For most of human history, technology did not add much to these fights. The German tribes flowing into Roman lands could overcome technological deficiencies with sheer numbers. This reality remained true in warfare, for the most part, until about 100 years ago when technology swung the other way.

    Suddenly, superior technology could overcome massive superiority in numbers. The forts defending Liege were only overcome when the Germans could outmatch the Belgian technology with better German technology in the form of the Krupp 42-cm howitzer. Fifty years later, the Soviets were able to ring tens of millions of people through the use of technology in the form of walls, guns and intelligence networks.

    How does half a million people fend off four billion? Walls will not be enough, that’s for sure.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  12. To me it seems to me that the current, self-created migrant “crisis” is a way of bidding up the floor on the number immigrants countries admit. By calling our refusal to take in vast numbers of alleged refugees “stingy,” the Left is engaging in a negotiating tactic. Having refused vast numbers of refugees, the Left can at the very least use that as an argument against reducing legal immigration rates which were, pre-crisis, already insanely high.

    Take Denmark, which is being held up as one of the “stingy” countries. Denmark already accepted 15,000 asylum applicants last year. Denmark has 5.6 million people – fewer than the average-sized US state. That’s the equivalent of the US taking in ~870,000 refugees per year – a number not much smaller than than total number of legal immigrants the US accepts each year.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  13. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Great work Steve.

    But I just wish somehow it could get through to the bone-headed politicians who run the western world. ‘Economists’ are another matter. They are a lost cause.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  14. It’s all the West’s fault. If we hadn’t provided all these people with drains, clean water, vaccinations and antibiotics there wouldn’t be so many of them.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  15. Evidence points to Africa being able to sustain a population growth of 4x over the next 85 years.

    1. Wars
    The number and violence of wars in Africa peaked in the 1990s. It has gone down since.

    2. Famine
    There have been only 2 famines in Africa in the last 10 years.

    3. Governance
    Governance in Africa is getting better and so is political stability. The best proof of this might be the increase in the white population in South Africa from a low of 4 million in 2000 it has gone up to 4.3 million now because of greater confidence in stability and governance.

    4. Disease
    Public health is also steadily improving in Africa because of the decline in HIV, decrease in maternal mortality, and for out of control stuff like Ebola there’s always the UN funded by the US, China, UK, Sweden (the 4 major players in the Ebola outbreak).

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  16. A malthusian scenario in the making… funny how haphazardly implemented public health measures and famine relief could overwhelm the impact of the 4 horsemen up to now. Remember when Africans were gonna be decimated by aids? Not happening I guess.

    But as some worthy said what is unsustainable will not be sustained. All the west needs is another financial shock and the assistance provided will become spotty. The civilized niceties will disappear; invaders into europe will be shot. It will be do eat dog. We are witnessing the beginning of the end .

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  17. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    If white Europeans are to survive in the coming centuries, as a distinctive ethny and not just as inclusion in someone else’s genome, then they must start electing unabashedly nationalist parties right NOW. Any delay, at this critical juncture would be fatal.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  18. The solution is obvious: a secret project funded by an oligarch to reduce the fertility of Africa. Something CRISPRish, but with airborne or waterborne vectors. Not to destroy fertility (ie genocide), just reduce it. It would do to Africa what liberalism and feminism have done to the West.

    I will start posting that total population chart whenever I visit pro-immigration and anti-global-warming web sites. It makes the real problem extremely clear.

    It will require some rhetorical spin, however, some verbal stealth technology to break through kneejerk lefty defenses and force them to recognize their cognitive dissonance. It will take something really sneaky to come in under their hypersensitive lefty radar carrying a hidden righty payload.

    I suggest posting the chart with a comment like this:

    We know what you anti-global warming folks are really fighting for: African genocide and white supremacism. The UN projects that African and ME populations are going to increase for decades. It is utterly impossible for Africans to grow and flower as a people–for them to achieve their full potential–under the repressive and racist anti-global-warming policies you are demanding How can they even hope to reach four billion people in 75 years if we cut CO2 production! If you are against global warming you are for African genocide!

    It might be useful to modify your chart to show the Idiocracy perspective. Perhaps you could label each line on the chart with population-averaged IQs.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  19. Does the UN population forecast take agricultural productivity into account, or is it just a projection of birth rates assuming unlimited resources?

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  20. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Now that the British Labour Party has elected a complete and utter unreconstructed bearded left wing loon of a Marxist as leader, then perhaps this is UKIP’s golden opportunity to sweep up the white, English working-class vote and become Britain’s second political party.
    I hope UKIP strategists are aware of this.

    • Disagree: Owen
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  21. Saga’s ‘Ode to a Dying People’ – contains the phrase ‘if this is the way it ends, this is the way my race ends …’, with a haunting melody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z38Cl2jvHi0

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  22. no they are not.African Americans have a fertility rate of 2.0

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  23. of course most hbders are silent about the role of Catholic church which opposes contraception.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  24. Intelligent self-restraint? The black African?

    Steve Sailer, you kill me.

    My money is on (C), largely driven by the white pathological altruism money and goody spigot drying up.

    • Agree: Kylie
    • Replies: , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  25. True, the anti-racist left opposes family planning initiatives in Africa. But, for religious reasons, the Catholic Church and Christian Evangelicals, and therefore the Republican Party, also oppose family planning initiatives in Africa.

    • Agree: tbraton
    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  26. For the Middle East, the large population numbers are Iranian, Turkish and Egyptian -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Middle_East_countries_by_population

    Egypt is the poorest of the pack, but they’re mostly pretty solidly Middle Income countries at the moment. By GDP PPP Iranians and Turks probably better off than the Balkan Europeans like Macedonians, Montenegrins and Serbs and Turks even seem probably better off than Belarusians and Bulgarians and Ukrainians (pre-Maiden). Egypt is not so good but still seems to be comparable with the likes of Armenia, Georgia and Moldova. For the Iranians / Persians this is perhaps particularly kind of respectable, given the impact of the country being quite closed off the Iranian Revolution and our glorious leaders’ bungled handling thereof.

    Which is why migration from them has been fairly low so far.

    Combined with the fact that as the big 3 of the Middle East – Turkey, Iran and Egypt tended to avoid extensive colonisation, so have no major ties to any European countries encouraging immigration.

    Compare this to Pakistan, where they’ve established communities in the West (i.e. Britain), and the country is much poorer than the big Middle Eastern nations.

    Again, they avoided extensive colonisation, as with their quality of governance and power and technology, as with their economies overall, not *very* good, by the standards of Western Europe, but overlapping with the standards of Eastern Europe (especially East of Poland and south of Czechia) and the Balkans.

    The other large populations in the Middle Eastern are the Yemenis, Saudis and Emirates. The latter two are too rich (as countries, even though average wages are not great), while the Yemenis are very poor, and are kept bottled up by their richer neighbours.

    This is actually all something to tell to the stupid Liberals who bang on about the Middle East being “a prison” that people naturally want to escape from. Really, a “prison”, you chumps?

    It could all go very badly wrong with more democracy “encouraging” action by our glorious leaders. The kind of wave of expansion out of Syria does not seem so likely though.

    Africa is a major concern – to see that continent become as populous as Eurasia relative to its landmass, could be a good thing (in a utilitarian kind of way). Trouble being, it’s not a good thing, at all, for them all to want to come here.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  27. These astonishing graphs never seem to cause the extremely active and very well funded network of NGOs dedicted to open borders and the absolute right to movement one iota of doubt.

    I am a little surprised this did not get more play:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1551853/sky-finds-handbook-for-eu-bound-migrants

    Not unexpected but it is a reminder that the relentless pressure from the you-must-share-all-your-worldly-goods-or-you-are-a-racist crowd has been ratcheding up in intensity in recent years.

    These how-to enter and organise booklets apparently come from this:

    http://www.w2eu.info

    Which seems to be run by Bernd Kasparek, who also is active in anti-facist circles, ready to label anyone who ojects to ethnic replacement a racist.

    And this in turn seems to emanate from: http://bordermonitoring.eu, a Germany-based outfit.

    Several sites say this is partly George Soro’s work, as does the Hungarian prime minister. There may be more information in German which I do not read.

    But dipping into the world of open borders campaign literature is to stumble into a giant bear trap of Orwellian control techniques, including labelling all resistance as ThoughtCrime.

    Indeed the sort of ideological trap that caught a certain muddle-headed German leader.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  28. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Actually, doesn’t this graph suggest the weakness of those models?

    His simple model doesn’t seem to match the data, which varies considerably from as recently as two generations ago. This suggests other factors at work.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  29. Those numbers are pretty meaningless once we free ourselves of the notion that there is any moral obligation to allow unlimited immigration. African countries will NEVER have the military power to invade Europe, so if Europe really wants to end the African invasion, which of course is currently (but not necessarily going to remain) a nonmilitary invasion, it won’t be difficult although it will be bloody… at least for Africans.

    Middle Easterners are far more intelligent than Africans but ultimately Europe will always be ahead of the Middle East militarily too, at least for the foreseeable future. What Europe has to fear is terrorist attacks from Muslims inside Europe, and at this point there are already far too many Muslims to be able to expel them without civil war. The best Europe can hope for is mass assimilation of its Muslims and an end to further Muslim immigration. Of course we all know that is extraordinarily unlikely.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  30. I think you should do a separate graph closer to home. Compare the populations of Mexico (13.6 million in 1900, around 120 million today (not counting the millions living in the U.S.)) and the U.S. (76 million in 1900, around 330 million today).

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  31. Please note: The UN has revised its estimate for Africa’s population upward to 4.2 Billion before the century’s out.

    http://data.unicef.org/gen2030/

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  32. But it poses quite a set of moral problems, doesn’t it?

    How many generations of whites in the North–easily back to the late 1600s (Quakers is who I’m thinking about)–have been raised to be their brothers’ keepers?

    Is the “new right” ready to accept the challenge and formulate a new moral response? I mean a new one, not the same old mediaeval/Mediterranean formulae it’s been bashing on with here and there of late. “Oh, we’ll just return to a Traditional Society, then things will be fixed.”

    On Veracitor’s point:

    “Does the UN population forecast take agricultural productivity into account, or is it just a projection of birth rates assuming unlimited resources?”

    It’s neither. It’s a projection of trends residing in numbers very much like when you get an e-mail from Jim Cramer showing you how $1,000 can become $1 million Through The Power Of Compound Interest. You see, most people don’t understand and can’t visualize the exponential nature of a fixed rate of increase. “Oh, a two percent addition to our society–that’s not much!”

    Think of Al Bartlett in his lectures saying, “If you want to see what Boulder will look like in 50 years, look at San Diego now.”

    The GOP is all too happy to honk loudly about liberals and progressives being eugenicists. Which isn’t incorrect (nor is it correct), but attack mode avoids having to answer the question of What Then Shall We Do.

    Good lord, they’re still using their ’80s trick of trying to segment and motivate target voter demographics by defunding the only organization that stands between Third World breeding genetics and what remains of US cities. And they’re joining the left in decrying the fact that a sustainable society will by definition require far more r-selection-strategy abortions than K- ones to become anything other than Mogadishu.

    In fact the only people the powerful on all sides seem to agree need killin’ off is people over 70. (I carry KLOTHO, so my goal is to die with a chainsaw in my hand at 95. While doing firewood is the plan, but I’m flexible.)

    As for Malthusian Nightmares, right-tail humans seem hardwired to try to head those off. I’ve been hearing about them my entire life and haven’t yet witnessed one. AIDS and Ebola had the potential. The response to those has been epic-worthy at the level of high-intelligence technology. At the level of population genetics? It’s a disaster.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  33. Only way the West can survive is by breaking the fear-of-’racism’ BS. People must accept the truth of race-ism. Unless the mind is saved, the body cannot be saved.

    Also, let’s look at the lessons of WWII, the Good War.
    After the war, for the sake of greater peace, Germans in non-German lands were uprooted and sent to Germany. There’s been peace in Europe ever since. The only war zone was Yugoslavia because of demographics and diversity across regions.

    So, peace is built on solid borders, not allowing tons of people to invade in the name of ‘humanitarianism’.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  34. Um, in any other circumstances, if the UN told you the sky would be blue tomorrow, you’d be opining as to what other color it was going to be on that day …

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  35. You forgot D.) Culling. Europeans have dealt with this problem using force in the not-too-distant past.

    If that graph is accurate, Europeans in 2050 might not treat their neighbors to the south so indulgently.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  36. Mark: Do you really believe that black Africans would be good at family planning even if Christians and the GOP were pro-choice?

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  37. “But, for religious reasons, the Catholic Church and Christian Evangelicals, and therefore the Republican Party, also oppose family planning initiatives…”

    Family planning initiatives? They certainly don’t like abortion. And they press natural birth control which, at its very, very best, is only about as good as the pill or the condom in reducing conception.

    And yet, Brazil and Ireland and Poland are not the problem. Even the Filippinos, who Steve recently cited as an example of Catholics who still breed like rabbits, have some method to their madness (e.g., a large island chunk of their country which they’re about to turn over the Muslims, not to mention all those Muslim Indonesians and Malaysians on the periphery. A Euopean-style population implosion over there might make Westerners feel good, but absent a similar implosion in neighboring countries, it may well be turn out to be a bloody disaster for them.)

    In any case, Africa is the problem. And it’s problematic in wide swathes, not just in the Catholic areas as opposed to the Anglican and Muslim areas where more popular forms of birth control are not a theological impediment.

    I realize many people around here will miss no opportunity to stick it to the Christians, but it’s time they left this area alone, or at least put some better arguments together.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  38. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3044584/Pray-Allah-ll-throw-overboard-Muslims-ordered-Christians-punctured-dinghy-African-migrants-sank-Mediterranean.html

    Will there be punishment? Will it influence their asylum process? I doubt it.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  39. If you project the African population based on population growth from 2000-2015, Africa will have somewhere north of 7 billion people by AD 2100. That’s well higher than the UN estimates of 4 billion or so. If anything, UN estimates are far too conservative.

    There is no way, of course, that Africa will have 7 billion people by 2100. The means by which they don’t reach that number are a matter of intense interest, however. War, famine, disease, or genocide – which will it be?

    Note that when I say genocide, I don’t mean nations or tribes of Africans killing each other – I mean Africans migrating out and killing the rest of us. Because at the current rate, if they did so we’d probably let them. That’s how suicidal our dumbass leaders have become.

    Perhaps 150,000 years from now scientists will all be talking about how mankind evolved from a people who migrated out from Africa 150,000 years earlier and killed off the hominid populations already living in the other regions of the earth, occasionally raping or otherwise interbreeding with some of them and thus passing on a little of their DNA.

    • Replies: , , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  40. Caldwell on Merkel’s Boner:

    The big danger ever since this migration got underway is that it would get stopped up somewhere. The day after Germany closed its border with Austria, there were 20,000 migrants stuck in the Austrian villages of Nickelsdorf and Heiligenkreuz. And the further south you go, the fewer resources residents have to give the travelers a welcome. The migrants are largely young men from rough, tough parts of the Muslim world. There is now a queue of them that stretches all the way east to Bangladesh and beyond, and deep down into sub-Saharan Africa. People have sold cattle, abandoned houses, robbed employers, left wives and children, and burned all sorts of bridges to come. There are now hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them. Many are war-hardened. They are looking for money, food, and female companionship, and they are convinced that Europeans are gullible sissies. This is where Frau Merkel’s Willkommenskultur has led: With the impending closure of the Croatian border, hundreds of thousands of young Muslim men are about to hit a brick wall in Serbia. Serbia!

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/europe-gets-borders_1032567.html?nopager=1

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  41. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mosquirix-malaria-vaccine-by-oluwatosin-omole-et-al-2015-09

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  42. “Intelligent self-restraint? The black African?”

    Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!!!!!

    Sailer be racis’!

    Black Good Times Matter. Let em’ roll.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  43. “..Malthusian Nightmares (war, famine, disease, etc. etc.)…”

    Wasn’t that what Jared Diamond said explained the Rwandan genocide? It was just too many people basically. The war, in a way, was just a side effect.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  44. These charts explain the war in Syria, the war in Yemen, the wars in Africa, the war in Iraq. Young stupid violent men with nothing to do. I think if the West did not allow this migration, the wars would be that much worse. But only because we will export the wars to ourselves. Europe can expect mass violence when they let in millions of young violent men. There is no way around that. At some level, the violence is crime, then it becomes insurrection and then civil war. But the violence will come.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  45. Hi Steve. I nominate Wilkey’s comment for the gold box!

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  46. That’s probably not going to happen due to some combination of (A) intelligent self-restraint, (B) mass migration, and (C) Malthusian Nightmares (war, famine, disease, etc. etc.) keeping the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2100 from being more than six times as great as Europe, which would be an 18-fold increase in 150 years.

    Mass migration isn’t going to put any dent in population growth because migrants usually stay nearby and have the same high fertility. Europe is already moving towards closing its borders and nationalist parties are waxing because of roughly 1 million migrants over the past two years. That is not even a rounding error in MENA and SSA population growth.

    war, famine, disease

    They have had it all with no real change in population growth. I suppose we could end up with something worse than Somalia/Rwanda/Sudan/Sierra Leone/ISIS, but unlikely on a continental scale. As for famine, most parts of Africa can export natural resources in return for food, and it only takes one first world migrant to support a family of 20 back home with remittances. A “not starving to death” food budget it awfully cheap. In the Chicago exchange right now a ton of soybeans (protein) is $350, canola oil (fat) is $450, and corn (carbs) is $170. Sugar is 10 cents a pound.

    As for restraint, urbanization will certainly drop the birthrate to some extent, but with 20% mortality and a birth rate falling to 3.5, that is still 30%+ growth in urban areas.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  47. white pathological altruism money and goody spigot drying up

    Africa does not subsist to any significant degree on Western aid. It is more than capable of growing its own food, even though it sometimes fails to do so. The amount of aid is pretty small, and often most of the “food aid” money is wasted by (1) employing westerners at high wages (2) logistics (3) rules that food aid must be purchased from 1st world farmers at much higher than local prices.

    Probably the biggest aid we give Africa is that most donated clothes than aren’t turned to rags and recycled go to Africa.

    • Replies: , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  48. Terms are very effective.

    Think of terms like ‘antisemitism’, ‘racism’, etc.

    And recently, ‘cuckservative’.

    So, we need to come up with terms to describe such as the rise of massive black crime/violence since the 60s. The ‘rampage’?

    We need a term to describe to the fear and hostility Jews feel toward whites.

    We need a term to describe Jewish egocentrism.

    Just by invoking the term, we would put the enemy on the defensive.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  49. My prediction is that Africa just keeps growing in population and becoming more disease ridden and miserable, destroys nearly all the forests and endangered megafauna we all love, but does not significantly send migrants to Europe as conservative parties either become restrictionists or are replaced by new parties.

    The main worry is that it only takes one Merkel or left-wing government to open the doors and permanently change a country’s demographics.

    One of the mainstream right parties in Merkel’s coalition is already starting to rebel:

    http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-under-pressure-from-bavarian-allies-over-migrant-influx/a-18696843

    Steve will appreciate the picture that seems to include a brand new photo of his favorite migrant.

    Here are some other fun links from Deutsche Welle:

    Pretty Oktoberfest girls:

    http://www.dw.com/image/0,,18724261_403,00.jpg

    Fun article comparing German open-boarder policy with restrictive French policy:

    http://www.dw.com/en/willkommenskultur-in-germany-non-merci-in-france/a-18721427

    “France is taking in as many refugees as we are in the district of Allgäu,” Horst Seehofer, the Christian Social Union (CSU) state premier of Bavaria, told the daily Passauer Neuen Presse. “That is selfish. When things get tough, there is no solidarity in Europe any more.” French officials have said they would take in up to 24,000 refugees this year; Germany is expecting to take in 800,000 – Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel is even figuring on a million.

    But the criticism goes both ways. French politicians, from the right as well as the left, are baffled by Merkel’s open-door policy. “The generosity of the German people is laudable, but Merkel made a huge political mistake when she put out her unilateral siren call to refugees,” Socialist Malek Bouith, himself the son of Algerian immigrants, said earlier this week on French television. “Mrs. Merkel’s behavior is starting crises for Germany’s neighbors – first and foremost France.”

    Sarkozy – who may well stand in the next French Presidential elections, and who during his time as head of state worked closely with Merkel – has warned that a continuing influx of refugees could “dissolve French society.” He is also against quota rules. In June, Sarkozy said acceptance quotas were the political equivalent of a plumber trying to distribute water more efficiently in an apartment after a pipe burst, rather than stopping the flow.

    Last week, former conservative minister Patrick Devedjian, who is of Armenian descent, offered a statement even more abstruse when he said: “The Germans took our Jews and gave us Arabs.”

    It was clear from the start that Germany’s refugee policy would be a golden opportunity for Marine Le Pen. “I accuse the German chancellor of burdening all of Europe with illegal immigrants after she already burdened it with her financial order,” Le Pen said, deftly touching upon two sore spots for the French people.

    It is not just French politicians who think differently than Germans when it comes to the refugee debate. French society does as well. According to a recent poll, about 50 percent of those questioned said they did not want to take in any more refugees. And over 60 percent said asylum applications from Syria should be handled “like everybody else” – exactly the opposite of the “culture of welcoming” that is being propagated by all of the German parties represented in parliament.

    Hungary has already started building a new fence along the Croat border:

    http://www.dw.com/en/hungary-starts-building-fence-on-croatian-border/a-18721670

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  50. Sadly, I’ll vote for C because A won’t happen and B is just a transference of C to the whole world.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  51. “Take Denmark, which is being held up as one of the “stingy” countries. Denmark already accepted 15,000 asylum applicants last year. Denmark has 5.6 million people – fewer than the average-sized US state. That’s the equivalent of the US taking in ~870,000 refugees per year – a number not much smaller than than total number of legal immigrants the US accepts each year.”

    Denmark has a smaller population than Arizona. With a population that small, if Denmark started letting in as many Muslims in raw numbers as Germany is letting in than White people in Denmark would already become a minority by no later than 2018 when The World Cup is held in Russia.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  52. thanks for the charts which are actually more dramatic if one looked at the population under 40 years of age , since this is the immediate future and already includes a substantial amount of muslims.

    Europe , besides having a shrinking population has a much older population than the Middle East. Already in France 20% of the under 40 population is muslim while 12% of the German population under the age of 40 are Muslim.

    A main cause of the crisis is the low fertility rate of European females , which has given Europe an excuse to allow in the muslim invaders and will further hasten the decline of christian Europe

    Since the average European is now 50 years old, they are more concerned with getting their pensions and 20% of those between the ages of 40-50 have no children, thus could care less about the future of Europe. Europeans under 40 had even less children.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  53. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Africa is actually a lot larger than people think:

    “Africa as you’ve never seen it before: Clever comparison shows it’s really as big as China, India, the United States AND most of Europe put together”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2445615/True-size-Africa-continent-big-China-India-US-Europe-together.html

    “Graphic shows Africa is as big as 13 nations and Eastern Europe
    The continent is more than 30m sq km, but this is not reflected in standard Mercator maps”

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  54. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    My prediction is that Africa just keeps growing in population and becoming more disease ridden and miserable, destroys nearly all the forests and endangered megafauna we all love, but does not significantly send migrants to Europe as conservative parties either become restrictionists or are replaced by new parties.

    I’m not so sure. Blacks are second only to Jews in terms of moral prestige, authority, dominance, and privilege in the West, if they’re not equal already, and may indeed surpass them in the future. There are already signs of this as blacks have made inroads as we’ve gone further away from WWII and as anti-Israel politics has become more prominent. It seems plausible that the West could continue promoting black interests in Europe and out of it in the rest of the world.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  55. The UN’s population projections have been optimistic underestimations for as long as they’ve been coming up with them. Ignore.

    For a picture of all Africa in the near future, you have Haiti. Food will eventually limit their growth, but at that rate of growth, so what?

    Ditto urbanization lowering birthrate: population momentum will carry them through the decades at positive growth. The key in urbanization is really female education, and as we’re talking about a less educable race, that won’t put a dent in them, either.

    We’re stuck with the brown hordes. Anyone still chirping about humanity not breaking 9 billion has their head in the sand. Too many chirpy ten-minute TED talks about “how cities will solve all our problems” will do that to you – when you’re shitbrained iPhag optimist.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  56. What does Rushton say about subgroups of whites who seem to have the offspring strategy of Africans? The Mormons or religious Ashkenazi Jews for example. The Ashkenazi have Asian levels of intelligence or higher but as Mr. Sailer has pointed out they had African levels of growth in Europe until 1939, and still do in Israel among the very religious. The Mormons in the U.S. are clearly hard working, responsible, care for their young but again have these terrific natural growth rates. Does he discuss this at all?

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  57. Hey Steve, what gives? No mention of your favorite TV show airing its final episode?

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/19/the-conflicted-legacy-of-sabado-gigante-tv-s-longest-running-variety-show.html

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  58. So why aren’t they all ending up in China? Or Japan? or Singapore?

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  59. Yeah, I switched to graphing Sub-Saharan Africa broken out separately from the Middle East (North Africa and West Asia).

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  60. That’s probably not going to happen due to some combination of (A) intelligent self-restraint, (B) mass migration, and (C) Malthusian Nightmares (war, famine, disease, etc. etc.) keeping the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2100 from being more than six times as great as Europe, which would be an 18-fold increase in 150 years.

    Any crystal ball going past 5 years is pushing it. We’re less than a month into the Muzzie stampede and there is already blowback against the suicidal German peoples and their idiot fuhrer Merkel.

    It is one thing to play socialist and goody too shoes, but when it negatively impacts you to the point of ruining your towns and cities and your life. It stops at that point. Romania has closed it’s borders, as has Hungary, Poland has said no more, Denmark, etc. In several more months most of Europe will close the rest of their doors and fences going up all over.

    Within a year I see nationalist/Victor Orban style governments sprouting up in East Europe to counter Merkel’s/EU’s demographic suicide campaign. The EU may be dead in a year’s time.

    What happens after that depends on the Muzzies already there going jihad on the natives. Which I would not bet against, given that jihadis have already been identified in their ranks that just came in. If there is widespread Jihadist attacks, any sympathy for local Muzzie immigrants will quickly vanish and be replaced by expulsions and refusing Muslim immigrants altogether.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  61. The “donation” of outgrown, worn out or needing-repair clothing in mass quantities by Westerners and primarily North Americans is a huge disaster for Africans and other third world peoples. Usually they are resold at surprisingly high (for worn out old clothes) prices. This destroys the local traditional weaving and sewing skills of the women, and makes a fortune for a few sleazy sharks and the executives at the nonprofits that broker the business.

    Old clothes should be repaired and worn or if you don’t want to do that, unless it is a vintage item with specific value, do yourself and the third/fourth world a favor and burn it, use it for cleaning or muzzle loader patches, or cut it in strips for rag recycling.

    The same is true to a somewhat lesser degree of most of the household junk people donate to thrift stores and the like. Scratched up phonograph records and CDs, worthless books, broken toys, et al, should be burned or ground up for recycling. Most of the valuable items like desirable vintage clothing, cameras besides Polaroids and Instamatics, decent stereo equipment, etc, get filtered out and resold to professional dealers for a relative pittance with an under the table override top the stores’ or distribution centers’ employees (which goes for dope or booze oftener than not). My rule is that if it isn’t worth putting on e Bay, I burn it or bust it up if neither I or any friends have a use for it.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  62. Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  63. How does half a million people fend off four billion? Walls will not be enough, that’s for sure.

    Let’s break this down. Europe has far, far more than half a million people to fend off any invasion. And the four billion third worlders are not showing up simultaneously en masse for a full frontal assault. The third worlders are trickling in without weapons no less and would be easy to turn away. The problem is that they are not only not turned back, but are welcomed and assisted in their entry into Europe. Then they are subsidized to remain.

    Europe needs to be freed from the shackles of the EU leadership and that leftwing mentality that rules it and most of the nations of Europe. The proper leadership, such as a President Eisenhower, could easily turn this immivasion around.

    BTW, the same attitude adjustment is needed in the US too.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  64. One of the mainstream right parties in Merkel’s coalition is already starting to rebel

    Actually, the CSU was much tougher on immigration in the past. They relaxed in recent years.

    & they are not the only ones who see the situation more realistically than Merkel. A large faction in Merkel’s CDU is also for more restrictions, as well as quite a number in the center-left SPD. Even further left you find voices for a smaller, regulated immigration.

    That’s why all this scaremongering by Sailer is nonsense. Many Europeans may be do-gooders, but there are more than enough people who have a much more realistic view of the world. & sooner or later there will be stricter limits on immigration.

    • Replies: , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  65. Occasionally raping? I think it will be far more than occasionally.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  66. The obvious limiting factor to sub-Saharan growth: when whites die off, are browned out through interbreeding, or become racially conscious and stop the flow of white technology without white responsibility. It’s going to get worse before it gets better, but because African blacks cannot sustain a level of civilization beyond the Stone Age, it is coming down and when it does the die off will be enormous.

    I’m guessing the Chinese have figured that out. They’ll make Negroes an endangered species in Africa by the time they are done.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  67. That is not even a rounding error in MENA and SSA population growth.

    Folks, to get a grasp of how insignificant the effect of a couple of million emigrants has on the population remaining back home, just watch a little of the famous “gumball” video by NumbersUSA. The guy is using gumballs to represent 1 million people each. Watch as he removes 1 gumball at a time from the third world and adds it to the USA to represent our annual immigration intake. The USA is clearly affected, but the third world is not. It is completely negligible.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  68. Why do you or anyone assume Europe will always be ahead of the Middle East militarily? Outside of Russia, Europe spends very little on defense and still relies on the US to ensure their safety. They could not handle an air campaign in Libya without US support. Middle Eastern nations spend vast amounts on their militaries, and have tank and aircraft fleets far larger than the European nations. France has 400 tanks but Pakistan and Egypt, 10 times as many. Quantity has a quality all its own. The Middle Eastern and North African pool of young men 18-25 is larger than Europe’s and the discrepancy is growing. And I am not so sure the technical gap is as large as we think. Without investment into military technologies, and with Russia and western firms willing to sell Muslim nations virtually anything, why should we assume any great technical gap in force capability as the militaries stand now? The EU spends between 1 and 2% of GDP on their militaries. Saudi Arabia spends 10%, Oman 11%, UAE almost 6%. The New York City police force is stronger than some European militaries. Israel and the United States are the only two Western nations (if you consider Israel western) to spend heavily on defense as a percent of GDP. Even the UK only spends 2%. The EU is a paper tiger militarily.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  69. “That’s why all this scaremongering by Sailer is nonsense.”

    Right, because experienced old hands like Chancellor Merkel would never slip up, even without public discussion of the big picture, so it’s totally fine to keep an embargo on graphing the U.N.’s population projections.

    • Agree: Foreign Expert
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  70. demographics in Europe are actually worse than the charts indicate today.

    while Europe has 750 million people, just 500 million live are part of the European Union , where the Muslims are invading and intend to live.

    508 million living within the European Union
    255 million are under the age of 45
    210 million “christian” Europeans under the age of 45

    while the Middle East region already has 215 million Muslims under the age of 45
    Europeans over the age of 45 are worthless to fight the challenges , they cannot reproduce, nor act as soldiers to repel the invasion…nor do they have the will nor the courage to admit they have been wrong , so they will vanish from the planet sooner than expected. The 40 million Muslims already living within the European Community have an average age of 32 verse 43 for Christian Europeans, and the Muslims have higher fertility. While more Christian Europeans die than are born each year, the Muslim population grows, even without the current hoard of Muslim invaders.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  71. I think what you’ve said is pretty hand-wavey. We could expel Muslims fairly easily if we had the political will to do so.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  72. “Think of Al Bartlett in his lectures saying, “If you want to see what Boulder will look like in 50 years, look at San Diego now.”

    Is that an insult at San Diego? San Diego does not strike me as an undesirable 3rd world hellhole. It has a low crime rate for a big city, nice year round weather, great nightlife, low percentage of the Michael Brown demographic, etc.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  73. I wonder what Vince thinks about Europe being taken over by hostile Muslims who hate Western culture. Vince McMahon does not seem to be a fan of the Muslims, because he always portrays Muslim wrestlers as being villains/heels/antagonists.

    And he always gives them dark villainous sounding Middle Eastern music.

    Being that Vince McMahon is an Irish Catholic, I wonder if he ever gets irritated at Left Wingers who compare Muslim immigrants in Europe to Irish Catholic Ellis Island immigrants in the U.S.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  74. It should be noted that much of this population explosion has, as usual, been by design.

    The Iraqi population explosion was by design: see “Sanctioning Saddam: The Politics of Intervention in Iraq”, by Sarah Graham Brown.

    The Syrian population explosion was by design. The government deliberately engineered a massive population explosion. They even made the sale and possession of contraceptives a crime! (See “Demographic Developments and Population: Policies in Ba’thist Syria (Demographic Developments and Socioeconomics)”, by Onn Winkler).

    After the Iranian Mullahs took power, they also engineered a population explosion: but rapidly backed off as the resultant poverty started to make Iran unstable. But now they have decided to ignite a population explosion yet again…

    South Africa used massive immigration from the rest of Africa to create a population explosion (and no, migration does not just move people around, it maximizes population growth). All those black African popular protests? Forget what you read about in the papers: it was mostly against all those black migrants from the rest of Africa! (really! you can look it up in wikipedia, so it must be true!)

    Of course the recent population explosion of the United States is also be government plan.

    I could go on for pages like this.

    But somehow the fact that population explosions are so often the result of elite policy, gets very little press. You would think that the elites had something to be ashamed of.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  75. As you can see, way back in 1950, the population of the Middle East was only 18% as great as the population of Europe, while Sub-Saharan Africa was only 33% as large. Even in 2000, the Middle East had only 49% of the population of Europe, while Africa had almost caught up to Europe with 88% of its population.

    But from 2000 to 2015, the Middle East added 124 million people, making it now 65% as populous as Europe.

    Who is feeding all these people?

    The greatly increased number of people must eat.

    So who is feeding them?

    This is the bottom line of population growth.

    Who is feeding them?

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  76. “Probably the biggest aid we give Africa is that most donated clothes than aren’t turned to rags and recycled go to Africa.”

    In John Updike’s 1978 novel “The Coup,” the overthrown African dictator has one chance to get back in power by giving a big speech to rile up a mob, but he keeps getting distracted by incongruous t-shirts worn by impoverished members of the listening mob, such as a Salu warrior wearing a t-shirt promoting a “drug-scuttled rock band called Le Fuzz.”

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  77. Mr Sailer has done an extraordinary job of examining the problem. Now it’s time for solutions. Mass small arms distribution? Universal birth control regimes? It’s time to figure this out and this is likely the political climate to do it.

    Africa needs a one child policy like yesterday.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  78. It’s not all that much work in Africa to feed yourself, especially if you take an AK-47 to the elephants who try to eat your crops.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  79. Not to destroy fertility (ie genocide), just reduce it.

    The solution is educating the women. Westernize the women. The lib/prog complex won’t object, and it accomplishes the desired objective (cf. Iran).

    Increase foreign aid, but devote it exclusively to educating the women.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  80. “Graphic shows Africa is as big as 13 nations and Eastern Europe
    The continent is more than 30m sq km, but this is not reflected in standard Mercator maps”

    minor quibble, the Sahara desert is about the size of the USA.

    Major agreement, Africa has vast natural resources. It doesn’t really need a damned thing from anyone else. In terms of having everything necessary to be its own system, it has all the arable land, minerals, water, oil, etc for them to live like kings. They just don’t know how to manage what they have.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  81. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    “Hungary has already started building a new fence along the Croat border:

    So it seems not only do fences backed by defenders work, they can be put up in days. Who could have possibly conceived of such a counter-intuitive hate fact?

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  82. The West is feeding them. Africa is a net food importer. http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/i2497e/i2497e00.pdf

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  83. African Americans have a fertility rate of 2.0

    And AA’s whose grandparents were born in the USA have an even lower tfr.

    AA women who hold college degrees have a tfr <1.0.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  84. Go and vote for ‘David French’.

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2015/09/20/the-2015-cucky-awards/

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  85. A main cause of the crisis is the low fertility rate of European females

    Angela Merkel has zero. She is the poster chick for German suicide.

    Since the average European is now 50 years old, they are more concerned with getting their pensions and 20% of those between the ages of 40-50 have no children, thus could care less about the future of Europe. Europeans under 40 had even less children.

    Europeans under 40 can’t afford kids because they are supporting their parents, grandparents, and immigrants. Actual German children who should be getting these resources are apparently dead last on Angela Merkel’s priority list.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  86. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Who is feeding all these people?

    Africa could vastly expand agricultural production, if needed. And don’t count out the ag multinationals.

    “Cold comfort farms”, The Economist, Sep 4th 2013, by J. O’S:

    “…IF POTENTIAL were edible, Africa would have the best-fed people on earth. The vast continent has 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, most of it unfarmed. The land already under cultivation, mostly by small farmers, could produce far more. Crop yields in Africa are between one-third and one-half of the global average.

    …overfarming… could be fixed… With the right know-how and inputs, Africa’s farmers could double productivity.”

    “African farming is the new frontier for brave investors: Sub Saharan Africa is the promised land for long term speculators”, The Telegraph, Anna White, 15 Jun 2014:

    “…sprawling farms of sub Saharan Africa are the new land of plenty. …

    …UK agricultural land costs $25,575 per hectare, for example, having risen 270pc in ten years, compared to $1,800 in Zambia. The African continent holds the world’s largest proportion of agricultural land, with 1.2m hectares and 94,500 farms, although a much smaller proportion is investable.

    …investors picturing large-scale operations that will cater for firstly domestic demand, as the lower middle class in Africa expands, and then the export potential to the rest of the world. …

    …By the year 2020, the global population is expected to reach the 8bn mark, by 2050 the 9bn mark [UN Medium Projections], as the world grows by 80m people a year, pushing up food consumption.

    …Scrub or bush is worth $50 per hectare, whereas bare land with a title costs around $500 per hectare. …

    …the perception of risk when buying from tribal communities is off-putting anyone but the hardiest of investors. …

    …“We are not investing money to grow food or help people in Africa – we are investing to return capital to our clients,” he says. “But a consequence of our investment is the production of food and increased food security, while we also transfer skills into the market place.” …”

    And never forget the demand for beer. War, pestilence, savagery… whatever, even more perseverant than mining companies, is the beer company. They probably secretly run the world:

    “…brewers SAB Miller… producing drinks on a large scale in countries such as Nigeria, bringing additional commerce, infrastructure, jobs and skills to the continent…”

    Kudos to whoever posted the map of Africa with Europe, China, Tibet, India, and the US shown embedded inside the borders of Africa:

    The True Size of Africa.

    There’s a great note on that map. “…there …should also be a concept of immappancy“.

    Another note that might explain a bit of the problem: “…a survey with random American schoolkids let them guess the population and land area of their country. … The majority chose 1-2 billion and “largest in the world, respectively.”

    So as the largest country in the world, we’ve got nothing to worry about. A beer?

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  87. I wonder how many scientists there will be 150,000 years from now. There are more than 400 nuclear plants, plus a lot of waste, that have to be tended and safeguarded. Are Africans up to the task? We don’t even seem to be. (Are people aware that nothing has been done to remediate Fukushima? No one seems to have a clue as to what *can* be done. And radiation makes people stupider.)

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  88. Steve, if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa (and for that matter, everywhere in the world. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    • Replies: , , , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  89. minor quibble, the Sahara desert is about the size of the USA.

    All continents have a fraction of their areas that are un-arable.

    Europe has many un-arable mountainous areas. Large portions of Europe are at high latitude and have the phenomenon known as “winter” that shortens the growing season. N. America has large deserts and mountain ranges and high latitudes. S. America has a huge rain forests. Australia has a tiny sliver near the coasts that is not arid. Asia has lots of deserts and jungles.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  90. Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    How much do condoms cost? How hard are they to get? These Africans have smartphones, satellite TVs and a host of other trimmings of the modern world. Why would they be lacking condoms?

    Africans and others readily adopt things from the Western world like tech, clothing and media that they find agreeable. If they found using condoms were agreeable, wouldn’t they already be using them in high numbers?

    Keep in mind the white Christians that might tell them birth control is wrong are also the ones who tell them that extra-marital sex is wrong. If they listen to the white Christians on the former, why not the latter? I doubt white Christians are the cause of their family planning problem. As Steve has pointed out before, they have evolved in a land plagued by diseases like malaria, and thus have tended to have many children to ensure some survive. Modern medicines and surplus food have now messed with this survival strategy.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  91. Africa is actually a lot larger than people think:

    “Africa as you’ve never seen it before: Clever comparison shows it’s really as big as China, India, the United States AND most of Europe put together”

    The West Wing: Peters Projection

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  92. What does Rushton say about subgroups of whites who seem to have the offspring strategy of Africans?

    The Mormons in the U.S. are clearly hard working, responsible, care for their young but again have these terrific natural growth rates. Does he discuss this at all?

    Utah TFR: 2.34

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  93. If you have a child mortality rate of 0.8 then you’d need women to be having 11 to get a TFR of 2.2.

    If child mortality went down to near zero then you’d need women to be having 2.2 to get a TFR of 2.2.

    hence

    K people
    - reduce child mortality -> birth rate declines

    r people
    - reduce child mortality -> no change

    need to change the r to K somehow or world war z was a prediction

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  94. The solution is educating the women. Westernize the women. The lib/prog complex won’t object, and it accomplishes the desired objective (cf. Iran).

    Increase foreign aid, but devote it exclusively to educating the women.

    This idea is similar to what I have been suggesting in a some of my posts. It is probably the best solution that benefits both sides.

    Westernization has not reached the African women fully. Africans must lose their traditional values in order for fertility to drop to European levels. Education, feminism, participation in the workforce, and culture play major roles here. African women will begin to find their men to be about as attractive as a plague of locusts and rightfully so. If possible try to push things that have weakened the Western man to the Africans.

    Couple that with birth control, abortion, etc. and playing field will be much more manageable. It is bound to work because its effects have been shown in the U.S. and in Europe.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  95. especially if you take an AK-47 to the elephants who try to eat your crops.

    Years of research conducted at zoos for the creation of animal-proof barriers has finally paid off.

    Behold … the fence!

    Elephant Proof Fence Secures Futures

    Childfund CEO Paul Brown discussed how an elephant proof fence is changing the lives of Zambians

    Fences, what can’t they do?

    P.S. This transfer of advanced elephant-repulsing technology to Africa pro-bono will count as a humanitarian act and also proves we’re not racist.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  96. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Increase foreign aid, but devote it exclusively to educating the women.

    There have been a number of books about how foreign aid often backfires and does more harm than good. Foreign aid also has a way of disappearing off the docks and into Swiss bank accounts.

    Not saying it’s not a plan worth trying, but problems that need to be solved here include assuring that the aid doesn’t get stolen by the big guy with gun-goons who runs everything; that you don’t become the target of anti–cultural-imperialism pushback (because your program is culturally imperialistic); that the women are educable; and that you can reach a sufficient proportion of the women to have an effect. In many places the Islamists will be there saying “See! they really are trying to weaken you, listen to us instead!” And what happens when all those young men who aren’t getting the goodies decide to band together and just take stuff? Does your plan have a way to deal with that?

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  97. Mormons are only 60% of Utah’s population. Assuming non-Mormons have a typical US fertility rate that would mean Mormons in Utah have about 3 children per mother. That is a very high rate for the West (although admittedly not African). This though has come down considerably from the recent past. In the 1970s the average Mormon woman in Utah had between 4 and 5 children. And this still does not answer why Ashkenazi Jews had in Europe (pre-war) an “African” level of fertility. To this day the average religious Ashkenazi Jewish woman in Israel has 6.5 children. This is far higher than the average African American fertility rate.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  98. This posting has lots of truth, but it is pure doom and gloom. I wish Sailer would try to encourage constructive solutions and not just make everyone feel miserable and hopeless.

    And despite what you may think, the future isn’t hopeless. Here are my constructive ideas for those that are bothered by this:
    - If you are of child rearing age, have more kids. It really will make you feel better.
    - Use your personal and family influence to encourage others who are of child rearing age to have more kids.
    - Advance policy ideas that would shift fertility in a desirable direction.
    - Develop a culture that is can’t be destroyed by millions of aggressive, selfish, desperate jerks pushing across a border.
    - Learn and invest into the field of human genetics.

    While I take this issue extremely seriously, I’d also stress that predictions like this are frequently way off. Remember in 2000, how literally every economist said that all the programmer jobs would go to India and China? They couldn’t have been more wrong. Or remember in the 1970′s all the predictions of overpopulation and mass famine? Outrageously wrong!! Or climate change predictions, such as the Hockey Stick?

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  99. I should note that the West is feeding me as well. My house is also a net food importer, as we grow nothing for ourselves with the exception of a few spices.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  100. there are more than enough people who have a much more realistic view of the world. & sooner or later there will be stricter limits on immigration.

    Until then …

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  101. Isn’t it likely that Sub Saharan African birth rates continue to decline, just as birth rates in western nations declined as infant mortality was reduced, the economy became more productive, the relative cost of children increased due to increased population. The population can only go up so high before economic pressures make it difficult, right now food is cheap, when the population doubles will it still be cheap? No.

    Birth rate over time: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sub-saharan-africa/birth-rate-crude-per-1-000-people-wb-data.html
    Infant Mortality Rate over time (in table): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2292/

    The net birth rate appears to already be on a downward trend.

    Look at India (6 to 2.5 per woman), China (6 to 1.6), Brazil(6 to 1.8), Indonesia (5.6 to 2.4), Iran (7 to 1.9), I’m not cherry picking google the statistics for any country yourself, their birth rates have fallen considerably in the last 50 years, from African levels, down to (almost) western levels. The chart shown in this post is making bad assumptions, there’s little reason to expect Africa not to experience a similar decline.

    • Replies: , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  102. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Fences, what can’t they do?

    The “invention” of the fence must have happened in the early days of agriculture. It probably was way before the invention of the wheel. fenceworkshop.com: “While it may seem strange to consider the fence as one of the defining concepts of modern civilization, its history has huge ramifications for the way we perceive our world today.”

    Apparently you can find anything on the internet:

    fencehistory.blogspot.com: The History and Culture of Fences You wouldn’t have thought anyone could really do a “history” of the fence. After all, where does it begin?:

    “…The word itself comes from Middle English “fens,” short for “defens” which, of course, means defense. …

    …The kind of fencing you install has a history, discussed elsewhere, that goes back to the beginnings of mankind, where among other uses, it certainly was for defense. In the beginning, however, it was also an important factor in developing agriculture, and the cultural understanding of private property.

    …it’s been studied… Christina Kotchemidova, a professor at New York University… made the point that fences do more than provide a physical function (like keeping someone in or out) – they actually have a cultural function. In fact, she says that the history of civilization is closely tied with the history of the fence. Human civilization is imagined as emerging from agriculture, family and property. And all of these evolved with the serious help of the fence.

    Fences, she says, define ownership, and societies that did not have individual ownership, such as early European farming, (harvesting, and moving-on societies, and many American native tribes,) did not have fences.

    …in 7th century England, the King of Wessex added a new function for the fence … the business of protecting crops from cattle, and the land-owner’s responsibilities. He proclaimed that a homestead must be fenced winter and summer. If it is not fenced and his neighbor’s cattle get in… he has no right to anything from that cattle; he is to… suffer the damage.”

    “The Culture of the Fence: Artifacts and Meanings”, Christina Kotchemidova, Counterblast, a publication of the Department of Culture and Communication at New York University.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  103. After all, the Clintons themselves applauded the coming nonwhite majority…

    …right before moving to Chappaqua.

    Bernie Sanders spent a decade in the civil rights movement, then moved to Vermont. Though lately he’s been making periodic visits to DC.

    Then there’s James W Loewen, who loves to hector other whites about their racial sins, also from the safety of Vermont. He probably thinks because it’s the only state not wrested from natives, that makes it all right.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  104. And this still does not answer why Ashkenazi Jews had in Europe (pre-war) an “African” level of fertility.

    Religion encodes what was necessary at the time so all traditional religions are encoded for a time when child mortality was much higher.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  105. And this still does not answer why Ashkenazi Jews had in Europe (pre-war) an “African” level of fertility

    Was it in Albion’s Seed that I read that colonial New Englanders had the highest recorded fertility known to man (or woman), an average nearly reaching ten?

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  106. Barbed wire was a big deal in the history of the U.S. West.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  107. “This guy” happens to be Roy Beck, a hero to many of us. (Up there with Steve!) Also a pleasant fellow, if you’ve ever met him.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  108. “there’s little reason to expect Africa not to experience a similar decline.”

    That’s what the UN demographers expected 20 years ago. But it hasn’t happened much. The UN’s 2012 Revision was way upward because they had to admit that Africa isn’t following the rest of the world the way everybody expected. That, and they realized they had undercounted population and births in Africa due to poor recordkeeping, so the baselines are higher than they had thought.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  109. Barbed wire was a big deal in the history of the U.S. West.

    “Barb Dwyer for President” would make a catchy bumper sticker. Or “Barb Dwyer, ’16!”

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  110. Childfund CEO Paul Brown discussed how an elephant proof fence is changing the lives of Zambians

    I’m sure the elephants would appreciate a Zambian-proof fence even more.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  111. If they found using condoms were agreeable, wouldn’t they already be using them in high numbers?

    What they need is a condom that feels like dry sex to the man, and wet sex to the woman. That would sell like hotcakes.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  112. Sorry if someone else mentioned this – I’ve just seen this post and haven’t read all the comments – but it is worth remembering that the rise in population numbers in Africa actually is a success story, since it doesn’t represent increasing numbers of children being born to African women, but larger numbers of children growing to maturity. Over the past 50 years infant and child mortality numbers have fallen in Africa, and this is the major reason that the population increase has been so large.

    By the way, you can also tell by these numbers that the “African AIDS epidemic” was probably a trifle exaggerated by the AIDS lobby.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  113. It’s all the West’s fault. If we hadn’t provided all these people with drains, clean water, vaccinations and antibiotics there wouldn’t be so many of them.

    You are exactly right.

    I remember, from the time I was a child half a century ago, repeated efforts and campaigns to feed or assist starving or sick people in those lands. We were told that if we help them, they will have better lives.

    All they did was have more babies.

    The truth is, European Man created the modern world and the comforts that enabled ALL OTHER RACES to grow. Those peoples always wanted what European Man created. Now their numbers are so great, their political power so strong, their portfolios so full of US dollar instruments, that they are overrunning the very people who facilitated their growth

    When they have diluted European Man and overrun his living space, few will remain able to maintain this wonderful modern world. European Man is doomed to near extinction, and the dependent races are doomed to hell on Earth.

    That’s one ranting way of looking at it, anyway.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  114. Hi Steve. I nominate Wilkey’s comment for the gold box!

    Gold box? The black box would be more appropriate.

    He’s thinking 150,000 years into the future? Civilization itself is only 10,000 years old.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  115. These Africans have smartphones, satellite TVs and a host of other trimmings of the modern world. Why would they be lacking condoms?

    Why would they use condoms if they had them? They make the experience almost pointless.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  116. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Very optimistic. Are these young idealists going to travel to Africa to put the condoms on the men themselves? Would they enjoy doing this? Would you?

    A potential consultant might be that guy at Singapore’s zoo whose job it is to collect semen samples from the various beasts housed there. By hand. (Safer than you’d think. “They know I’m not their enemy,” he told an interviewer.)

    His wife complains he comes home with a glassy look in his eyes.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  117. I wonder how many scientists there will be 150,000 years from now. There are more than 400 nuclear plants, plus a lot of waste, that have to be tended and safeguarded.

    There will be no scientists 150,000 years from now, because, as we all can see, humanity will have evolved to be much, much stupider.

    Nuclear power, however, is not the boogyman you think it is. It is a clean, efficient solution for energy production. It probably will never reach its full productive potential though, because, well, see what I just wrote above (or just look in a mirror).

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  118. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Actually, the demographics of white Americans are just as bad.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  119. Africa does not subsist to any significant degree on Western aid. It is more than capable of growing its own food, even though it sometimes fails to do so.

    LOL. Africa is a land mass. It doesn’t require food at all. This is a really goofy conflation.

    Of course, if, by “Africa”, you mean Africans, then your first sentence is ludicrous. The increase in Africa’s population over the last 100 years is entirely due to Western aid. What did Africans invent to increase the land’s carrying capacity?

    Nothing.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  120. As the old saying goes, “Good fences make good neighbors.”

    Cells in a living thing cannot function without membranes or cell walls to protect their integrity. Similarly, the organs in a body are separate and distinct; they have to be in order to do what they do.

    Borders and distinctions between parts are essential to the proper functioning of anything of high order. Without them, you have entropy.

    It’s too bad the people with the megaphone don’t understand basic science.

    • Agree: ben tillman
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  121. >>The net birth rate appears to already be on a downward trend.

    There’s a TED talk on this by a man regarded as one of the better presenters around — skip to about 7:40, though I’m guessing it’s only as good as the data above.

    http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth?language=en

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  122. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Rubbish.

    Just look at Britain’s New Labour administration of 1997-2010.

    Basically, it was all ‘Caplan’ on immigration. An odd position for the ‘worker’s party’.

    On the same note, well over 630,000 immigrants entered the UK ‘legally’ last year. An almost equivalent number to all those ‘refugees’ we’re getting in a tizzy about. This under a government pledged to ‘reduce’ immigration.
    Such is the sad state of affairs in Britain that such enormous numbers go almost unremarked. The population has been that demoralized and inured.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  123. Is there any less erectile way to graph this?

    (And don’t say “pie charts”!)

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  124. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    I’m fairly certain that if New Labour did not f*ck up back in 2010, and a massive UKIP mediated anti-immigration backlash had not materialized, then New Labour would still being pursuing their insane immigrationist obsession with increased prejudice.
    Britain would literally have millions of immigrants entering each year by now.

    • Replies: ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  125. Britain does.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  126. You really think “white Christians and social conservatives” have such a stranglehold over the rich world’s economies and governments that they can prevent this from happening?

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  127. That would be the Hutterites. Colonial New Englanders were less prolific than that, and French colonists in Quebec had them beat.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  128. If you have evolved to be horny and dumb as a box of rocks, that might complicate things somewhat.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  129. It does. The UK’s equivalent of the Republicans said they were going to reduce the numbers – and then they increased them.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  130. There are some like that that really do think that whites and conservatives really do have this power, and for those that do not roam the corridors of power they sincerely believe this to be true.

    Despite all the evidence of the last 50 years where whites have lost power and Christians have been vaporized from public discourse and power, there are still a lot of liberals that think the world is still in 1950. The world is actually closer to 950, where Western civilization was not as strong and faced a lot of threats, but unlike 950 we lack both the will and people to survive and we no longer have geography as a defensive shield. We are basically at deaths door, the clueless liberals who pretend to be so knowledgeable about the world are the least aware of what really is happening.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  131. if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning

    And they also control the European Union, the Communist countries, and the UN?

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  132. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    • Replies: , , , , ,
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  133. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Agriculture productivity is growing slowly in Africa. Maybe 1.5%. But this still means its growing and therefore capable of hosting population increase. There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  134. I wrote something about the “migrant crisis” recently, after looking into the UN world population data: http://londoner1983.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-migration-crisis-where-will-it-end.html The potential numbers of economic migrants, illegal immigrants, or refugees are so large that it is difficult to see how Europe could possibly retain its ethnic and cultural identity over the long-term with its current ultra-liberal approach to migration. In the UK we are told we will only be accepting 20k Syrian “refugees”, but this will undoubtedly increase and is on top of record-high levels of legal immigration that our “conservative” government is inflicting on us!

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  135. There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.

    African population densities are not that high. For comparison Haiti is at 376 people per sq kilometer and keeps chugging along with lots of foreign aid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_population_density
    Examples:
    Côte d’Ivoire ____52 per sq kilometer (Ivory Coast)
    Burkina Faso ____46 per sq kilometer (Formerly called the Republic of Upper Volta)
    Tanzania ____ 39 per sq kilometer

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  136. And the U.S. Navy successfully blockades most Haitian boat migrants.

    It’s really not all that difficult to prevent The Camp of the Saints, if you feel up to it. That was kind of Raspail’s point.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  137. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    But somehow the fact that population explosions are so often the result of elite policy, gets very little press.

    You bring up an important point. The developed countries have suppressed their birth rates by making contraception and abortion accessible and cheap. It’s promoted feminism which also works to lower birth rates and propaganda about ‘population bombs’ has been disseminated. Why get tied down with children when one can fulfill themselves with vacations and eating at fancy restaurants, and so on, is an idea that’s been popularized.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  138. America is in a better situation, as white American females have a fertility rate slightly higher than Europeans and the fastest demographic group in America is hispanics christians, instead of muslims from the middle east. While France, Germany and England have a growing muslim population , which is already over 10% of their young people. The recent wave of muslims into Europe will be more destructive to Europeans than the immigrants from Latin America settling in America.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  139. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Yep.

    And Puerto Rico, Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, or the Dominican Republic etc are such great places to live.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  140. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    The point is that nothing on this scale and magnitude has ever been witnessed before in recorded an unrecorded human history.
    Knowing full well the character and behavior of subsaharan Africans – think Biafra, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, South Africa etc, then no reasonable person can think that thus will work out well.
    The Chinese can just about manage with 1.5 billion, what with all their famed discipline, hard work, intelligence, planning and forbearance.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  141. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    I remember when the ‘Arab spring’ first stirred.
    Steve, back then was unconvinced of the seismic implications. I remember Steve posting that we should be more concerned with instability and murderous violence in Mexico.
    I remember putting in a post disagreeing with Steve.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  142. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Subsaharan Africans regard Syrians as being ‘whites’.

    When the next big conflict in Africa kicks off, black Africans will see the precedent now being set in Europe and will *demand* equivalent treatment from Europeans. They will play the ‘ace’ card of all ‘human rights and equalities’ bullshit, namely ‘racism’, if they do not get equivalent treatment.
    Of course the EU will cave in to them.

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  143. Idiotic statement, while Spaniards and Portuguese have some sub-Saharan ancestry (at very low levels, about 1% on average according to one of Razib Khan’s recent posts; Sicilians apparently have even less), it’s not like they’re visibly non-white in general.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  144. To expect either self-restraint or intelligence (or in fact any long-term future plans being devised) by Africans is unfortunately nothing other than wishful thinking.
    .
    They do not plan, they do not learn, they act on impulses for selfish ends. They cannot plan. They cannot learn. It is beyond their collective cognitive capacity.
    .
    Even when they are (and have been) handed everything on a plate, including fully functioning first world states, they can’t sustain it. It ought to be extremely embarrassing for them and embarrassing that they still have to flock to the white-man to live under their rule in Europe.
    .
    They will continue to expand, sucking at the teats of the western world in order to do so, whilst simultaneously moving to Europe to strangle and snuff out the goose that has always laid their golden eggs.
    .
    But they don’t care if millions of them die in starvation, or whether we Europeans are gone. They think for the here and now, for their own selfish needs in the here and now, and will probably blame any bad things that happen as being a result of their ineptitude on the white man and/or some kind of bad “juju”.
    .
    Science, progress, orderliness, cleanliness, will be wiped aside (along with Europeans) and the planet will be thrown into a new dark age, quite literally, of complete ignoramuses who don’t even realise the extent of what ignoramuses they are.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  145. Someone else posted about the population of Egypt. I would point out that Algeria’s population has grown from 4.7 million in 1901 to about 39.2 million in 2013. BTW Egypt’s population has grown from in 9.6 million in 1897 to around 84 million in 2013.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  146. Lowering African and Middle Eastern birth rates is only one part of the solution. The other part is how to raise the birth rate among the Europeans. This seems to be an even harder problem. Hitler actually managed to do this in Germany, pre-war, by banning abortions and paying cash to those who had extra children. In the pre-pill days, banning abortions worked. The US birthrate after the war climbed but I do not understand why this happened or if it could happen again.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  147. ” The only war zone was Yugoslavia because of demographics and diversity across regions.”

    That underscores not only the insanity of the European leaders but their ignorance even of recent history. The two largest constituent republics of Yugoslavia were Serbia and Croatia, both Slavic peoples of the same ethnic stock. They spoke the same language (called Serbo-Croatian when Yugoslavia was whole), and the only major difference was that the Serbs used the Cyrillac alphabet while the Croats used the Latin alphabet when writing. The other major difference is that the Serbs are mostly Eastern Orthodox while the Croats are mostly Roman Catholic. If such closely related people speaking a nearly identical language and believing in such closely related Christian religions can’t get along, why would the European leaders such as Frau Merkel think that European peoples can absorb large populations of Middle Easterners and Africans that are mostly Muslim? With respect to the latter point, don’t those leaders remember what happened in Kosovo less than 20 years ago? The Serbs were fighting with the Kosovar Albanian Muslims for control of an area that has historically been part of Serbia.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  148. Didn’t Clinton have a boner that got a bunch of Haitans killed, and forcing him to rethink the whole “we’ll take everyone” plan?

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  149. But what caused the population increase? OUR medicine, OUR education, OUR sanitation, OUR aid. WE HAVE to stop helping these people breed us out of significance.

    • Agree: Kylie
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  150. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world?

    I assume you would agree that if the entire world resembled Haiti that would not be a good thing. (Nothing personal implied to Haitians, I am sure there are many fine and intelligent Haitians, but you have to take the numbers game into account. And a lot of the intelligent Haitians probably realize that their best bet for high social status and power is to become something like a Voodo priest or crime lord.)

    If the entire world was similar to Haiti, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. But it very well might be the end of Western Civilization, the ideas of the Enlightenment, the advancement of science, etc.. Could a world-of-Haiti really sustain the modern medical and drug research complex?

    Where do you draw the line and how do you know? Perhaps 1/3 is fine but at 1/2 a tipping point is reached and it becomes a race to the bottom as the brutish dominate society. Perhaps integrated US high schools are a good example. There are clearly tipping points and they can be reached and happen faster than expected. And can you go back? Or is it a one-way path? US high school history suggests it’s a one-way path.

    And why should it stop? Once it reaches 1/3, why won’t it reach 1/2? Then why won’t it reach 3/4? Once it was larger than 1/2, you would expect the replacement rate to accelerate, as more voters vote against the shrinking white majority.

    Also, if race doesn’t matter, what is the problem with Europe being 100% of a single race? Race doesn’t exist, right? So it wouldn’t make any difference. But perhaps it is that race really does matter, but it’s anti-white racism that is the modern creed? That your position is an extreme racist position (arguing for race-replacment); essentially your position is the pro-genocide position. People who argue for genocide should expect aggressive pushback.

    I think you are also assuming that mixing is kind of like mixing paint. It’s not, it’s a lot more non-linear. So you would probably see something like Mexico, where once you get over, say, 60% to 70% non-white, people who appear white by the luck of genetics will be favored over those who don’t. Mexico is extremely race-conscious and racist, with whites being the top of the pyramid. You might very well build a much more racist world with you worldwide integration plan.

    Why do you think that if you have your way the world will end up what you assume? You have to take into account the Turkish Harem effect. What you suggest has in some places been tried due to war, conquest, and white slavery. Once whites are below, say, 5% of the population, the elite will tend to preferentially marry white women. (It may be that rare genetic types are often found more attractive.) A few generations of this and the elite will be genetically much more white than the general population. So you end up with a white caste lording it over a sea of brown or black. Do you think this would be a good thing?

    Imperial Harem:

    “…For the perpetuation and service of the Ottoman Dynasty, beautiful and intelligent slave girls were either captured in war (mainly Christian Europeans in the Balkans), recruited…, or procured…”

    Sultanate of Women:

    “…the nearly 130-year period during the 16th and 17th centuries when the women of the Imperial Harem of the Ottoman Empire exerted extraordinary political influence over state matters and over the (male) Ottoman sultan… …Most of these women were of slave origin…”

    So many of these women running the Ottoman Empire during this period probably looked pretty much like President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.

    Here’s an interesting article from 1894:

    “THE CIRCASSIAN SLAVE IN TURKISH HAREMS.”, Mrs. ELLEN BATTELLE DIETRICK, Popular Science Monthly, Volume 44, February 1894:

    “…ONE of the curious anomalies of history is found in the existence of a race whose men are characterized by a passionate love of freedom… but whose women habitually accept slavery as the most desirable of earthly conditions. No more thrilling story of spirited resistance to an invader can be found than that of the long struggle of Circassia against the persistently encroaching Slav. After forty years of continual warfare, overwhelmed by Russia’s superior wealth and numbers… deserted en masse… to take refuge in Turkey. Yet; from the time Circassia was first known to Europe, it has been the regular custom of these independence-loving, self-governing mountaineers to sell the sisters and daughters whose beauty has given chief fame to the name of Circassian; and, difficult as it may be for an American generation reared to abhor slavery to credit the statement, the testimony that these beautiful Circassians gladly accept, and even hasten to meet, their sale is too universal for doubt upon this point. The mystery, however, is largely solved when we learn that to the women of Circassia slavery and marriage are purely synonymous terms.

    To them slavery has meant an exchange from a laborious life of poverty in the mountains to that of ease and luxury as a wife — either chief or secondary — in a city harem. To the Turk, Circassian slavery has meant purchasing a wife… (the sultans never thus distinguish any woman), and thus obtaining one or more companions who will… be more obedient and contented in that capacity than any one he might secure from among the women of his own blood and rank…

    A Turkish woman of to-day writes: “Formerly a Turk rarely married his countrywoman… he would marry a Circassian slave, and give his sister to a Circassian man slave, or to some penniless Circassian subaltern in the Turkish army. This was caused by the innate love of power existing in both sexes.

    …the motives which probably animate each of the many maidens of Circassia… Each believes that it is she who may find grace and favor in the royal crown, and thus control at will the rise or fall of the royal scepter. But even if not chosen by royalty, those who purchase the beautiful damsels of Circassia are the wealthy and titled; and not the slightest social degradation is attached to their position, even when taken to harems wherein a Turkish wife may be installed as head of the household. The common dependence of all the inmates of a harem upon the favor of a lord who may at any time elevate the Circassian slave to the position of a lady fosters a spirit of equality of pure, practical democracy…

    …The first step after purchasing a Circassian girl is to give her… a special retinue of personal slaves, brought from Africa, who relieve her henceforward of the slightest necessity of unpleasant exertion.

    [Circassian beauties] [A Circassian commemoration] [Circassian girl]

    Reply More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  151. You failed to cite a very interesting earlier paragraph, involving remarks made by the Nobel Literature Prize winner of 2002, a Hungarian Jewish survivor of the Holocaust:

    “It was one of the bitterest episodes of German-Hungarian squabbling over human rights since 2002, when Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor Imre Kertész won the Nobel Prize for literature. Hungarians resented it when Germans boasted of Kertész’s Berlin domicile as a sign of their country’s moral progress. Hungarians took this bragging for an assertion that their own country had not made such progress. Kertész, though, has made an appearance in the latest migrant controversy, and now it is Hungarians who want to cite him. In The Last Refuge, Kertész’s diaries of 2001-2009 (not translated into English), he wrote a few remarks on Muslim migration that have in recent weeks become staples of political websites, both moderate and extremist. “I would talk,” Kertész wrote,

    ‘about how the Muslims are invading, occupying—to put it bluntly, destroying—Europe, and about Europe’s attitude towards that. I would speak, too, about suicidal liberalism and dumb democracy, the kind of democracy that envisions giving chimpanzees the right to vote. [Note: Kertész is referring here to an actual proposal of animal-rights advocates, not likening any group of voters to animals.] This story always ends the same way: Civilization reaches a stage of overripeness where it can no longer defend itself and doesn’t even particularly care to, where, for reasons that are hard to understand, it comes to idolize its own enemies. And, which is worse, where none of this can be said openly.’ ”

    I guess the only people in Europe who still retain complete freedom of speech are Jews. It also helps if you can claim to be a Holocaust survivor.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  152. That’s beyond stupid. Despite having no domestic defense industries, scientific research institutions or cohesive societies you believe that the ME armies will be able to outmuscle the Euros? That’s a joke.

    It has been almost more than a 400 years since the ME or any ME country has been able to successfully challenge a European army. Even in their home countries the ME has not been able to stop any western style army. Why do you think the Israelis do so well?

    Even when overmatched with superior weapons and outnumbered while fighting a multi-front war, the Jews were able to soundly defeat the Arab armies. Multiple times…

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  153. If European whites interbreed with 70 IQ blacks and 85 IQ Arab Muslims whose cultures are totally antithetical to Western Civ. The end product will be mulattoes that are morons and whose culture will not be European but Muslim.

    It would mean the end of Europe and civilization.

    BTW if the expected influx of Muslims occurs and there is no effort to stop it, Europe will be lost within a decade.

    Nobody by then will care about whether the Europeans are white either, they’ll be to busy dealing with Jihadis who are trying to kill them.

    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  154. I don’t agree with Cody’s anti-Christian obiter dicta, but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong. Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning. Buffett in particular is obsessed with the issue and at one point announced his intention to leave his entire fortune to family planning initiatives. I don’t know if he still adheres to that plan, but he has already donated considerable amounts of money to such endeavors.

    • Replies:
    Reply More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  155. You people do realize this will mean a mass extinction event occurring in Africa, right? Its something that is happening right now, and will get worse the more people are born. The species that go extinct will never exist again, in the history of the universe (to put it dramatically).
    Its happening right now, with species like pygmy hippos about to disappear due to hunting (for food) and due to uncontrolled deforestation.

    Someone mentioned Haiti in the comments. This is exactly what happened in Haiti, the environment was completely and absolutely destroyed, to the point where all forests were consumed, pretty much to the very last tree.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiDwCQGwB_M
    They ate up all natural resources like locusts.

    Biodiversity is going to be irreversibly destroyed in Africa if the rest of the world doesn’t go there right now and makes them wear condoms until they reach a birth rate that allows for the population to shrink.
    It needs to happen. Its a continent out of control.