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The Fundamental Reason There's a "Refugee" Crisis in the Mediterranean
Populaton of Niger v France

Source: UN, “World Population Prospects: 2012 Revision: V II”

There’s an effort to make you assume that the Camp of the Saints mass migration going on from Africa to Europe is a temporary blip of “refugees” or “migrants” caused by the depredations of ISIS in Iraq and Syria or something like that. But the fundamental cause is far more long-term. Let’s take the Sahel country of Niger as an example:

From The Economist:

Population explosion

Runaway birth rates are a disaster

Aug 16th 2014

Niger is north of Nigeria

… Niger is, by the reckoning of the UN’s Human Development Index, the poorest place on earth. Most of its inhabitants eke out a living growing subsistence crops on small plots of dusty, infertile land. Despite this agricultural bias, the drought-stricken country cannot feed itself, even in good years. An estimated 2.5m people out of a total of 17m have no secure source of food. …

This perpetual food crisis is compounded by doggedly high fertility rates. With an average of 7.6 children per woman, Niger has the world’s highest rates.

Poverty, ignorance and poor access to contraception are contributing factors, as are cultural issues like competition between wives. Men in Niger tend to be polygamous, and local doctors note that their spouses often try to prove their value by outdoing each other in child births. This contributes to Niger having the highest population growth rate on earth. At current projections, the number of inhabitants will more than triple between now and 2050 to 55m.

Well, that boggling 55 million figure was the old forecast, which looks now like an underestimate because the government of Niger was unsurprisingly inadequate at counting all its people and all their births. Based on better data, the latest UN forecast, is for 69 million people in 2050 and 204 million in 2100.

In such circumstances, demographers mostly agree, family planning is key. Two years ago, only 12% of women in Niger professed to use modern contraceptive methods. That is a reasonable increase on rates of 5% in 2005 but dismally low by global standards. About 50% of women of child-bearing age use modern contraceptives in Rwanda and Zimbabwe.

…At present the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the only importer of contraceptives, flying in millions of dollars’ worth this year. It runs a “school for husbands” which teaches men, who traditionally tended to obstruct women seeking birth control, about family planning. The schools hope to dispel wild rumours about contraception.

I’ll have to post a passage one of these days from Waugh’s 1932 novel Black Mischief about the ill-fated Festival of Contraception sponsored by the Emperor of an Ethiopia-like country.

The political will to improve things is weak: the government professes support but allocates only a tiny proportion of its budget to family planning. And the appetite for change among the population is limited. Only about a quarter of women express any desire to space out their births, let alone reduce their number. More than 20 years ago Niger identified population control as a priority in the fight against poverty. But birth rates are still rising.

This is hardly an insoluble problem. The majority of countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa have succeeded in bringing their fertility rates down to reasonably sustainable levels. But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist.

 
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  1. Well, as an HBD guy, you’ve got to give them props for the way they’re adapted to the modern environment. Even if half those people end up dying, the black race is still in the middle of a spectacular 100-200 years.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Have they really adapted? Are they where they are because of any planning or deliberate actions on their part? Without Western aid how would they be doing?
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  2. The world is gonna get a lot blacker in the next century. So we’ve got that going for us.

    Read More
  3. It s an insurmountabe problem. Fertility decline is a function of female literacy and education, rising income to a certain floor, imroved status of women, and urbanization.

    None of those factors are even possible save urbanization in Nigeria in sub Saharan Africa.

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  4. Just read that book last month. Fantastic. Got to find that failed propogqnda poster he made

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  5. It’s encouraging that The Economist is addressing the situation with what clearly sounds like a note of alarm.

    Read More
  6. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Steve,

    Why are fertility rates rising so much in Africa and Niger? That seems like a pretty important piece of background to understand the situation and consider alternatives.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Fertility rates are not rising in Africa, they're just falling much more slowly than was assumed until very recently.

    Most of sub-Saharan Africa outside of some less disease-ridden highlands, such as Ethiopia, has little cultural experience with the Malthusian Ceiling. So, all their traditions tell them more babies are better.

  7. @Anonymous
    Steve,

    Why are fertility rates rising so much in Africa and Niger? That seems like a pretty important piece of background to understand the situation and consider alternatives.

    Fertility rates are not rising in Africa, they’re just falling much more slowly than was assumed until very recently.

    Most of sub-Saharan Africa outside of some less disease-ridden highlands, such as Ethiopia, has little cultural experience with the Malthusian Ceiling. So, all their traditions tell them more babies are better.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Thank you, Steve. I think what I am trying to ask is, what is the fundamental cause of the population explosion? The only factors mentioned in The Economist article (for example, lack of contraceptive use) have existed since time immemorial. I apologize if I am inquiring after the obvious--What is driving this? Why now (or the relative "now" of last fifty years)? What has changed? Does everyone just know/assume the cause? It seems like one of those basic background facts that should be included in a magazine article like this.
  8. Anyone who thinks these population projections you cite are absurd needs to review the recent history. The population of Ethiopia climbed from 41 million to 99 million in 30 years – an almost 3% increase PER YEAR, despite repeated famines in the 80s and 90s.

    The population of Africa climbed by over 300 million – a >37% increase – in the 15 years from AD 2000 to 2015. The 4+ billion population figure you cite isn’t even a straight line projection, based on recent history. Use the 2000-2015 growth rates and you get over 7 billion people. If the population grew as Ethiopia did over the last 30 years it would be over 13.5 billion. Readers here should plug the numbers into Excel or a scientific calculator if they don’t believe this.

    Now every single one of us here knows that a population of 13 billion or 9 billion or even 4 billion will not happen. But the manner in which it will not happen – famine, disease, warfare, exporting massive numbers of invad…err, people abroad – should be of intense interest to every leader on the planet, especially in the West.

    Read More
    • Replies: @silviosilver

    Now every single one of us here knows that a population of 13 billion or 9 billion or even 4 billion will not happen. But the manner in which it will not happen – famine, disease, warfare, exporting massive numbers of invad…err, people abroad – should be of intense interest to every leader on the planet, especially in the West.
     
    That's why I consider the leftist race-deniers the scum of the earth. The science was done and the population and resources projections were in, and what was the left's response? To assault population control and pretend eugenics is 'pseudoscience.' They are singularly responsible for whatever suffering befalls Africa.
  9. The best thing to do would be to support the installation of friendly tyrants in those countries who will assist in bottling up the people in exchange for lucrative trade agreements while at the same time implementing China-style birth control policies to stop the growth.

    Unfortunately the West is far too knee-deep in the ideology of universal democracy to do something as logical as that.

    Down with democracy!

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  10. If anyone points the finger at you for having more than 2-3 kids, show them this graph. What is the greatest accomplishment of pre-colonialism sub-Saharan Africa? The mud hut? This won’t end well.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wilkey
    "If anyone points the finger at you for having more than 2-3 kids, show them this graph."

    You don't need to show them this graph - you just need to show them U.S. immigration policy. Why should white Americans have fewer kids when the government is allowing massive numbers of foreigners to move here every year? From 1970 to 2010 our population climbed by 30 million just from immigration alone. That number counts only immigrants, not their children and grandchildren born here.

  11. Just imagine, what if the USA, instead of throwing away billions of dollars on an insane military adventure in the Middle East, had, instead, decided to spend the same amount on population control in Africa? What if Norman Podhoretz had said that World War IV was going to be the struggle to contain the population bomb?It’s not hard to imagine a program: cash giveaways for getting a Depo-Provera shot, etc

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wilkey
    "Just imagine, what if the USA, instead of throwing away billions of dollars on an insane military adventure in the Middle East, had, instead, decided to spend the same amount on population control in Africa?"

    That assumes that George W. Bush had a brain and a conscience. It's pretty clear he had neither.
  12. Population explosions do lead to mass migrations, and have been one of the key reasons for many violent periods in history.

    But there’s one more major factor at work here. And that’s NATO. Five years ago, Syria was a rather stable country doing its own thing, and Libya was the most developed nation in Africa. Now they are both hellholes people want to abandon. Why? Because NATO destroyed both countries.

    Then there is Iraq. During the post 1991 Saddam years, it was a bad place, but it was functioning. Since 2003, it has become another hellhole.

    So, as radical as it may sound, Africa and the Middle East will be much more stable if NATO stops blowing up countries left and right, stops financing lunatics and terrorists, and tells Saudi Arabia to stop promoting lunatics and terrorists.

    Here’s one more point. Liberals love to whine about how guns kill people, etc etc, and what a great thing it is that Europe has imposed strict gun-control. Fine and dandy. So how about they start complaining about weapon exports to third-world nations?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    That NATO/First World police action cessation would likely come at the cost of utter chaos. Saudi would have all their existential paranoia triggers tripped and would likely destroy their oil fields to prevent those falling into anyone else's hands, whether Iranian, American or other.

    That dynamic had underpinned the U.S. policy of the past 40+ years to tolerate higher oil prices as long as the supply stayed relatively stable. That stability or predictability allowed the OECD/G-15 to thrive while grappling with the Cold War wind-down and numerous other influences.

    Material oil supply disruption in the Gulf would devastate the developed world, hence so many seemingly desperate policies that have been implemented so poorly, such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and the rest.

    Americans haven't had competent foreign policy talent since Kennan, to the world's regret. They sure did not get it from the recent Administrations this millennium.

    , @Whiskey
    Syria's revolt was a function of the Assad family weakness. Previous revolts had been suppressed bloodily at Homs by the elder Assad, but the younger one was weak. Iraq? Held together by a bloody tyrant (see Yugoslavia, the USSR) as a collection of people who thoroughly hated each other for millenia was never going to be anything other than a seething hell-hole. Its not as if Iraq or Syria under the family dictators were stable either.

    Bush at least tried action to rejigger the ME, it was clear it was already unstable and wobbling. See Iran vs. the House of Saud vs. ISIS/AQ in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. Bush's sins were in under-preparing and overselling the US public on what it would cost and what could be reasonably achieved and how long it would take.

    Bottom line: if Europe wants to avoid hundreds of millions of Africans coming there, they need a layered defense which includes a navy and air force and army -- and defacto colonial rule over Africans.

    What? Africans will stop being African? Stop having a TFR of around 7? Stop polygamy? All of a sudden get much smarter? Lowering the birth rate is possible -- but only with colonial rule and taking away African self-determination and ruling them as foreigners. Europe's choice: rule to keep the hordes out or see them come.

    Only Europeans, the Japanese, South Koreans, and China (partially) have been able to fully embrace modernity and all its challenges. Its folly to think Africans can on their own.
  13. @Anonym
    If anyone points the finger at you for having more than 2-3 kids, show them this graph. What is the greatest accomplishment of pre-colonialism sub-Saharan Africa? The mud hut? This won't end well.

    “If anyone points the finger at you for having more than 2-3 kids, show them this graph.”

    You don’t need to show them this graph – you just need to show them U.S. immigration policy. Why should white Americans have fewer kids when the government is allowing massive numbers of foreigners to move here every year? From 1970 to 2010 our population climbed by 30 million just from immigration alone. That number counts only immigrants, not their children and grandchildren born here.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    There are those who worry about world overpopulation for various reasons, and refrain to have many children themselves as a way of being responsible on a personal level. These are the sort of people who would point the finger, not realizing that if their own government is going to enable other countries to overflow their population surplus into their country, there is no point in being supposedly "responsible" because you are just going to get swamped.
  14. @Wilkey
    Anyone who thinks these population projections you cite are absurd needs to review the recent history. The population of Ethiopia climbed from 41 million to 99 million in 30 years - an almost 3% increase PER YEAR, despite repeated famines in the 80s and 90s.

    The population of Africa climbed by over 300 million - a >37% increase - in the 15 years from AD 2000 to 2015. The 4+ billion population figure you cite isn't even a straight line projection, based on recent history. Use the 2000-2015 growth rates and you get over 7 billion people. If the population grew as Ethiopia did over the last 30 years it would be over 13.5 billion. Readers here should plug the numbers into Excel or a scientific calculator if they don't believe this.

    Now every single one of us here knows that a population of 13 billion or 9 billion or even 4 billion will not happen. But the manner in which it will not happen - famine, disease, warfare, exporting massive numbers of invad...err, people abroad - should be of intense interest to every leader on the planet, especially in the West.

    Now every single one of us here knows that a population of 13 billion or 9 billion or even 4 billion will not happen. But the manner in which it will not happen – famine, disease, warfare, exporting massive numbers of invad…err, people abroad – should be of intense interest to every leader on the planet, especially in the West.

    That’s why I consider the leftist race-deniers the scum of the earth. The science was done and the population and resources projections were in, and what was the left’s response? To assault population control and pretend eugenics is ‘pseudoscience.’ They are singularly responsible for whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    Read More
    • Replies: @athEIst
    whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    Fuck Africa, I'm worried about what Africa belches forth as it dies in war, famine, and pestilence.
  15. @syonredux
    Just imagine, what if the USA, instead of throwing away billions of dollars on an insane military adventure in the Middle East, had, instead, decided to spend the same amount on population control in Africa? What if Norman Podhoretz had said that World War IV was going to be the struggle to contain the population bomb?It's not hard to imagine a program: cash giveaways for getting a Depo-Provera shot, etc

    “Just imagine, what if the USA, instead of throwing away billions of dollars on an insane military adventure in the Middle East, had, instead, decided to spend the same amount on population control in Africa?”

    That assumes that George W. Bush had a brain and a conscience. It’s pretty clear he had neither.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hepp

    That assumes that George W. Bush had a brain and a conscience. It’s pretty clear he had neither.

     

    Nah, think about it. Let's say you didn't understand HBD, that you believed in God and thought all human beings had equal potential. Wouldn't you believe in bringing democracy to the middle east, and unlimited immigration? I mean, why not? All we need is good policy and everyone can enjoy a first world standard of living.

    Bush had a lot of compassion, and he was pretty reasonable, considering what we're allowed to believe.
  16. A note of disagreement: The problem here isn’t the fertility of Africa, it’s the demographic suicide of the West. There wouldn’t be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn’t.

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    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    There wouldn’t be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes.

    Nonsense. It wasn't like there were so many jobs that went begging because the unemployment rate was 0. The saintly businessmen wanted to fire Americans and replace them with cheap illegals.
    , @iSteveFan

    There wouldn’t be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn’t.
     
    First, there isn't a lack of labor in Europe or North America. Employers don't want to pay the wages that would reflect our labor market, so they use immigrants to distort the labor market and lower wages.

    Second, I doubt all or even a majority of these migrants are even coming to work. They are coming to partake in the social safety nets of the host countries. If we were only taking in workers, you might have a point. But we are not.
    , @Anonymous
    Italy, the victim of this invasion suffers from massive unemployment, particularly youth unemployment.
    The shit-headed economic policies of the EU are responsible for this.
    Italy has had sub replacement fertility for decades now.
    This gives the lie to that off asserted 'fact' that western nations will 'need' mass immigration in order to counter a 'shortage of young workers'.
  17. Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I’m guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don’t, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.

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    • Replies: @syonredux

    Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I’m guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don’t, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.
     
    On the other hand, Malthusian collapse is pretty dystopian.....
    , @Anonymous
    All these things are 'mortal sins, to whom?

    Yourself?
    The Catholic Church?
    , @IBC
    The rhythm method of birth control is approved by the Catholic church and has been proven effective, although obviously not to the extent of long-lasting hormone injections or IUDs. By most interpretations, Islam permits birth control as long as its use is a mutual decision and it's not permanent or harmful to the body. In many traditional African cultures, there were taboos surrounding sexual activity in the period after childbirth. This had the effect of helping to space out births; something that's usually good for the health (and mental health) of both mothers and children, although it may have also led some men to have sex with other women in the meantime.

    You're right that there are many Africans who likely view contraception as sinful, but there are probably more who'd use birth control, at least to space births out, if they had better access to it and knowledge of effective methods. Attitudes also need to shift, but that's not just in terms of what's sinful, but in terms of behavioral ideals. Having more children than you can take care of isn't smart or godly, polygamy mostly benefits "big men," and children giving birth to children is not only unnecessary, but it's bad for mothers, their babies, and the societies themselves where it's common.

  18. Priss Factor [AKA "The Priss Factor"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    “But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist.”

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.

    and in US too. Cons are opposed to abortion even though the sane policy is to pay blacks to have them.

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    • Replies: @silviosilver

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.
     
    That's mainly because they're compatible with prevailing leftist attitudes against third world population control. If the internationalist left was oriented towards aggressive fertility reduction christian opposition would prove as effective as it has domestically - ie not completely ineffective, but overall defeated.
    , @HA
    "Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa."

    If that were true, there should be sizable differences in TFR between predominantly Catholic, and, say, predominantly Anglican regions of Africa.

    Likewise, a similar discrepancy should also be evident with regard to higher AIDS transmission as the result of Catholic views against condoms that Anglicans do not share. I haven't broken out the figures for the fertility numbers, but much to the disappointment of the Catholics-want-Africans-to-die-of-AIDS contingent (i.e. the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd, more or less), others have crunched the numbers for AIDS and found no such discrepancy.

    Which suggests you don't have a clue about what you're talking about with regard to African birth control, either, though I doubt that that's ever stopped you before.

    In any case, Brazil is not the problem here, it's Africa. So find a bogeyman other than Catholics and Evangelicals to blame for this. Maybe you could instead find some way to blame Jews for everything -- that's pretty much all you ever do, anyway.

  19. Here I thought all that reclassifying of typical African poverty diseases as “AIDS” back in the 80s was a roundabout way to promote birth control via condoms. That effort was undertaken by NGOs a long time ago under one guise or other.

    But as Waugh et al noted, Africans see no utility in birth control whatsoever.

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  20. Isn’t the Economist one of the magazines that promotes immigration and population growth? We are being told a lot how population growth is good for the economy. How is it working out in Niger?

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    • Replies: @jtgw
    I've given up putting myself through the torture of reading them regularly, but I recall their position was that population decline in the developed world was a problem for obvious economic reasons, but in their typical cluelessness they insisted that more immigration would solve that problem. I do grant them some respect in that they've always recognized high fertility in the developing world to be a problem and that it isn't "racist" to try to control population growth; unfortunately, they seem to have deliberately ignored this factor in their discussion of immigration and refugee policy.
  21. I think it will be extremely easy to reduce Niger’s extraordinarily high TFR the same way Germany, Japan, and Vietnam did -rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.
    If you look at Niger’s cities, it is clear that they exist for largely the same reasons cities existed in Korea or southern China before the mid-20th century -as bins for excess population. Niger, I think, will be just as easy to urbanize as South Korea or Japan. Look at how Russia and Brazil (countries much less easy to urbanize) manage to reduce their extraordinarily high TFRs with the help of rapid state-guided urbanization and industrialization (anyone remember the Brazilian Miracle?).

    The problem for Niger that makes things much more difficult for it than for Japan or Vietnam, or course, is the fact that it is landlocked, thus giving it much less access to markets in the developed world.

    Simply giving contraception to people will not change any underlying incentives: most of the inhabitants of Niger want children, and lots of them, too. Most people in Japan do not, despite the fact that, like Niger today, Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century and was constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit, want enough children for Japan’s population to continue growing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @athEIst
    constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit.

    those "bumps" were famines and Japan did have a lot of them in the 18th century
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century
     
    Soichiro Honda, born in the 20th century, came from a family of nine. (They'd need at least two Odysseys.)
    , @22pp22
    You're wrong. Japan's population was stable in the eighteenth century. There were seere famnes, but they really only affected the north. There are quite a few studies, but a short one is in Conrad Totman's Japan Before Tokugawa.

    Japan's population rose from the 1870's to the 1970's.
    , @B.R.
    >>rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.<<

    Couple of points:
    -competitive modern industry requires and educated and skilled workforce, and comparatively little of it. There's no reason to imagine economic reform and industrialization are even a possiblity in sub-saharan Africa. Knowing what we do about it's population.
  22. With projections like this there will have to be some sort of mass die off. Disease, famine, war? I’m betting on all three.

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  23. @For what it's worth
    Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I'm guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don't, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.

    Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I’m guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don’t, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.

    On the other hand, Malthusian collapse is pretty dystopian…..

    Read More
  24. Ivy [AKA "Enquiring Mind"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @jimbojones
    Population explosions do lead to mass migrations, and have been one of the key reasons for many violent periods in history.

    But there's one more major factor at work here. And that's NATO. Five years ago, Syria was a rather stable country doing its own thing, and Libya was the most developed nation in Africa. Now they are both hellholes people want to abandon. Why? Because NATO destroyed both countries.

    Then there is Iraq. During the post 1991 Saddam years, it was a bad place, but it was functioning. Since 2003, it has become another hellhole.

    So, as radical as it may sound, Africa and the Middle East will be much more stable if NATO stops blowing up countries left and right, stops financing lunatics and terrorists, and tells Saudi Arabia to stop promoting lunatics and terrorists.

    Here's one more point. Liberals love to whine about how guns kill people, etc etc, and what a great thing it is that Europe has imposed strict gun-control. Fine and dandy. So how about they start complaining about weapon exports to third-world nations?

    That NATO/First World police action cessation would likely come at the cost of utter chaos. Saudi would have all their existential paranoia triggers tripped and would likely destroy their oil fields to prevent those falling into anyone else’s hands, whether Iranian, American or other.

    That dynamic had underpinned the U.S. policy of the past 40+ years to tolerate higher oil prices as long as the supply stayed relatively stable. That stability or predictability allowed the OECD/G-15 to thrive while grappling with the Cold War wind-down and numerous other influences.

    Material oil supply disruption in the Gulf would devastate the developed world, hence so many seemingly desperate policies that have been implemented so poorly, such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and the rest.

    Americans haven’t had competent foreign policy talent since Kennan, to the world’s regret. They sure did not get it from the recent Administrations this millennium.

    Read More
  25. @silviosilver

    Now every single one of us here knows that a population of 13 billion or 9 billion or even 4 billion will not happen. But the manner in which it will not happen – famine, disease, warfare, exporting massive numbers of invad…err, people abroad – should be of intense interest to every leader on the planet, especially in the West.
     
    That's why I consider the leftist race-deniers the scum of the earth. The science was done and the population and resources projections were in, and what was the left's response? To assault population control and pretend eugenics is 'pseudoscience.' They are singularly responsible for whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    Fuck Africa, I’m worried about what Africa belches forth as it dies in war, famine, and pestilence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    Well, I certainly share your concerns, but my point was to place the blame on leftist policies and sentiment so as to prevent them shifting it onto us.
    , @Dirk Dagger
    Potty mouth!
  26. @E. Harding
    I think it will be extremely easy to reduce Niger's extraordinarily high TFR the same way Germany, Japan, and Vietnam did -rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.
    If you look at Niger's cities, it is clear that they exist for largely the same reasons cities existed in Korea or southern China before the mid-20th century -as bins for excess population. Niger, I think, will be just as easy to urbanize as South Korea or Japan. Look at how Russia and Brazil (countries much less easy to urbanize) manage to reduce their extraordinarily high TFRs with the help of rapid state-guided urbanization and industrialization (anyone remember the Brazilian Miracle?).

    The problem for Niger that makes things much more difficult for it than for Japan or Vietnam, or course, is the fact that it is landlocked, thus giving it much less access to markets in the developed world.

    Simply giving contraception to people will not change any underlying incentives: most of the inhabitants of Niger want children, and lots of them, too. Most people in Japan do not, despite the fact that, like Niger today, Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century and was constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit, want enough children for Japan's population to continue growing.

    constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit.

    those “bumps” were famines and Japan did have a lot of them in the 18th century

    Read More
  27. THE REAL REASON FOR THE REFUGEE CRISIS IS CROOKED WHITE US AND EU POLITICIANS WHO GIVE VISAS AND LET THE REFUGEES IN.

    As long as 3rd worlders know they can go to USA or Europe, they will not care about making life better in their own country.

    The best way to help USA and Europe and Africa is to ban immigration, ban asylum, put a naval and land blockade and deport all illegal aliens and reduce legal immigration to zero.

    Once they know there is no way out, they will sit down and make their lives better in their own country–such as reducing their birth rates, growing crops, getting education, etc.

    That is the best way to help them.

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  28. I recall an article I read a couple of years back by one of those French linguonationalists aggrieved at the dominance of English, exulting in Francafrique’s population boom. He wrote that in terms of number of native speakers, French would be the most spoken language in the world in a few decades and that since Africa was the next China, everyone else should start learning French if they didn’t want to get left behind. Needless to say, I was quite sceptical about the coming economic rise of Francafrique.

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  29. @Wilkey
    "If anyone points the finger at you for having more than 2-3 kids, show them this graph."

    You don't need to show them this graph - you just need to show them U.S. immigration policy. Why should white Americans have fewer kids when the government is allowing massive numbers of foreigners to move here every year? From 1970 to 2010 our population climbed by 30 million just from immigration alone. That number counts only immigrants, not their children and grandchildren born here.

    There are those who worry about world overpopulation for various reasons, and refrain to have many children themselves as a way of being responsible on a personal level. These are the sort of people who would point the finger, not realizing that if their own government is going to enable other countries to overflow their population surplus into their country, there is no point in being supposedly “responsible” because you are just going to get swamped.

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  30. @jimbojones
    Population explosions do lead to mass migrations, and have been one of the key reasons for many violent periods in history.

    But there's one more major factor at work here. And that's NATO. Five years ago, Syria was a rather stable country doing its own thing, and Libya was the most developed nation in Africa. Now they are both hellholes people want to abandon. Why? Because NATO destroyed both countries.

    Then there is Iraq. During the post 1991 Saddam years, it was a bad place, but it was functioning. Since 2003, it has become another hellhole.

    So, as radical as it may sound, Africa and the Middle East will be much more stable if NATO stops blowing up countries left and right, stops financing lunatics and terrorists, and tells Saudi Arabia to stop promoting lunatics and terrorists.

    Here's one more point. Liberals love to whine about how guns kill people, etc etc, and what a great thing it is that Europe has imposed strict gun-control. Fine and dandy. So how about they start complaining about weapon exports to third-world nations?

    Syria’s revolt was a function of the Assad family weakness. Previous revolts had been suppressed bloodily at Homs by the elder Assad, but the younger one was weak. Iraq? Held together by a bloody tyrant (see Yugoslavia, the USSR) as a collection of people who thoroughly hated each other for millenia was never going to be anything other than a seething hell-hole. Its not as if Iraq or Syria under the family dictators were stable either.

    Bush at least tried action to rejigger the ME, it was clear it was already unstable and wobbling. See Iran vs. the House of Saud vs. ISIS/AQ in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. Bush’s sins were in under-preparing and overselling the US public on what it would cost and what could be reasonably achieved and how long it would take.

    Bottom line: if Europe wants to avoid hundreds of millions of Africans coming there, they need a layered defense which includes a navy and air force and army — and defacto colonial rule over Africans.

    What? Africans will stop being African? Stop having a TFR of around 7? Stop polygamy? All of a sudden get much smarter? Lowering the birth rate is possible — but only with colonial rule and taking away African self-determination and ruling them as foreigners. Europe’s choice: rule to keep the hordes out or see them come.

    Only Europeans, the Japanese, South Koreans, and China (partially) have been able to fully embrace modernity and all its challenges. Its folly to think Africans can on their own.

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  31. @For what it's worth
    A note of disagreement: The problem here isn't the fertility of Africa, it's the demographic suicide of the West. There wouldn't be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn't.

    There wouldn’t be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes.

    Nonsense. It wasn’t like there were so many jobs that went begging because the unemployment rate was 0. The saintly businessmen wanted to fire Americans and replace them with cheap illegals.

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  32. The black African is going to have to be compelled by force to use contraception. Left to their own devices, they largely won’t. That is, if their American diaspora is any indication.

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  33. @Priss Factor
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.

    and in US too. Cons are opposed to abortion even though the sane policy is to pay blacks to have them.

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.

    That’s mainly because they’re compatible with prevailing leftist attitudes against third world population control. If the internationalist left was oriented towards aggressive fertility reduction christian opposition would prove as effective as it has domestically – ie not completely ineffective, but overall defeated.

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  34. @For what it's worth
    A note of disagreement: The problem here isn't the fertility of Africa, it's the demographic suicide of the West. There wouldn't be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn't.

    There wouldn’t be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn’t.

    First, there isn’t a lack of labor in Europe or North America. Employers don’t want to pay the wages that would reflect our labor market, so they use immigrants to distort the labor market and lower wages.

    Second, I doubt all or even a majority of these migrants are even coming to work. They are coming to partake in the social safety nets of the host countries. If we were only taking in workers, you might have a point. But we are not.

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  35. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Steve Sailer
    Fertility rates are not rising in Africa, they're just falling much more slowly than was assumed until very recently.

    Most of sub-Saharan Africa outside of some less disease-ridden highlands, such as Ethiopia, has little cultural experience with the Malthusian Ceiling. So, all their traditions tell them more babies are better.

    Thank you, Steve. I think what I am trying to ask is, what is the fundamental cause of the population explosion? The only factors mentioned in The Economist article (for example, lack of contraceptive use) have existed since time immemorial. I apologize if I am inquiring after the obvious–What is driving this? Why now (or the relative “now” of last fifty years)? What has changed? Does everyone just know/assume the cause? It seems like one of those basic background facts that should be included in a magazine article like this.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Western medicine and food aid. The population of Africa was kept low by disease, maternal and child mortality and their inability to produce or distribute food. Modern science has dramatically reduced death rates, increased the amount of food produced in Africa, improved food distribution, and directly provides food for a hundred million Africans
    , @Anonymous
    Its simple. African and other third world countries got access to pharmaceuticals - penecillin, etc and thus death rate decreased - maybe not down to western levels but definitely decreases. Culture hasn't changed and takes time - usually the tipping point is when women get rights and start working and don't want to have 6 kids.
  36. Is my impression correct that it has become more un-PC to talk about population control in Africa over the past decade? As others here note, it used to be that the left was all about saving the planet and lowering human fertility, while it was the religious right that thundered against promoting abortion and contraception. When did the left start to think that population control was racist and Bad?

    Read More
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    Not just the last ten years, for the last twenty to thirty years. The population control movement had its heyday in the 60s and 70s. Politicians at the highest level all across the globe were on board with reducing fertility. In the mid-70s India carried out eight million sterilizations in one year. But the way the programs were carried out led to a backlash. Not only were some procedures botched, which led to deaths, but there began to be concern that people being forced to comply. A backlash against eugenics developed in the 70s, helped along by the newly created holocaust awareness campaign. In the 80s feminists added their voices to complaints about abuses and began to change the focus of population planners to women's health (genital mutilation and AIDS were common themes), education and workplace opportunities. Despite initial resistance from the fast-fading eugenicist wing of the population control movement - reduced births to educated women runs contrary to eugenicist values - this 'well-being and opportunity' perspective was adopted in the 90s and today dominates fertility-related issues.
  37. Am I correct that fairly recently the “correct” pronunciation of Niger changed from NYE-jer to Nih-JAIR? Due to some PC considerations?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Prof. Woland
    I think they had it right the first time.
    , @IBC
    It was a French colony, so the currently favored English pronunciation was probably always the most correct one. It also helps to keep it mentally separate from Nigeria.

    I've also noticed that Ivory Coast is now increasingly referred to by its French rather than English name.

  38. @iSteveFan
    Isn't the Economist one of the magazines that promotes immigration and population growth? We are being told a lot how population growth is good for the economy. How is it working out in Niger?

    I’ve given up putting myself through the torture of reading them regularly, but I recall their position was that population decline in the developed world was a problem for obvious economic reasons, but in their typical cluelessness they insisted that more immigration would solve that problem. I do grant them some respect in that they’ve always recognized high fertility in the developing world to be a problem and that it isn’t “racist” to try to control population growth; unfortunately, they seem to have deliberately ignored this factor in their discussion of immigration and refugee policy.

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  39. A Danish travel agency is running a competition to encourage Danes to have more children with their “Do It For Denmark” campaign:

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  40. @Wilkey
    "Just imagine, what if the USA, instead of throwing away billions of dollars on an insane military adventure in the Middle East, had, instead, decided to spend the same amount on population control in Africa?"

    That assumes that George W. Bush had a brain and a conscience. It's pretty clear he had neither.

    That assumes that George W. Bush had a brain and a conscience. It’s pretty clear he had neither.

    Nah, think about it. Let’s say you didn’t understand HBD, that you believed in God and thought all human beings had equal potential. Wouldn’t you believe in bringing democracy to the middle east, and unlimited immigration? I mean, why not? All we need is good policy and everyone can enjoy a first world standard of living.

    Bush had a lot of compassion, and he was pretty reasonable, considering what we’re allowed to believe.

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  41. @Ripple Earthdevil
    Am I correct that fairly recently the "correct" pronunciation of Niger changed from NYE-jer to Nih-JAIR? Due to some PC considerations?

    I think they had it right the first time.

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  42. Can we impose a soft malthusian ceiling? How about everybody who accepts food aid is sterilized and therefore “dead” from that point on, reproductively. It’s like the grim reaper counting coup.

    Harsh, heavy handed, paternalist. Yes. And failing to do this will see hundreds and hundreds of millions of souls starve to death in the next 85 years. Also it would be extremely eugenic.

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  43. “But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist.”

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, “We need fewer of you, for our own sake,” sounds pretty racist to me. As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents’ numbers down.

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    • Replies: @silviosilver

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, “We need fewer of you, for our own sake,” sounds pretty racist to me.
     
    If your race is forced to subsidize them you should get a say in how many of them are created.

    As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents’ numbers down.
     
    Why just Europe? Surely racial blocs like east Asia, India, Arabia and S. America wouldn't want to be left behind. In other words, a breeding war - and all because contraception is a 'mortal sin.' Religious kookery at its very finest.
    , @Anonymous
    Look.
    If they stopped trying to move in on us and take over our countries, no one would really care about their fertility rates.
    , @syonredux

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, “We need fewer of you, for our own sake,” sounds pretty racist to me.
     
    You seem to be missing the point about how high rates of population growth are bad for Africa:"You need fewer of you, for your own sake."
    , @Anonymous
    Wasn't something like this the title of a PJ O'Rourke essay? "Just enough of me, too many of you."
  44. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Hepp
    Well, as an HBD guy, you've got to give them props for the way they're adapted to the modern environment. Even if half those people end up dying, the black race is still in the middle of a spectacular 100-200 years.

    Have they really adapted? Are they where they are because of any planning or deliberate actions on their part? Without Western aid how would they be doing?

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  45. anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    “What is driving this? Why now (or the relative “now” of last fifty years)? What has changed”

    Cheap Western medicines, basic sanitation, world-wide epidemiology that keeps epidemics from spreading, cheap technology (from wind-up generators to cell-phones), radio and television, mobile doctors, ….

    Sub-Saharan Africans, in particular, have been living in a dangerous place where mortality was high. So keeping birth rates up made sense, to counter the death rate. But now they aren’t dying as fast of natural causes. But the birth rate isn’t coming down as fast as the death rate.

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  46. Don’t want to be too vicious about it … but this is only a problem for soft men.

    For hard men … this is not a big problem.

    Mother Nature loves hard men and rewards them. What a cruel bitch she is! Presiding over mass die-offs on this planet since the beginning.

    You might get the idea that Mother Nature loves death every bit as she does love life.

    She stacks the bodies high! And there’s nothing that any sensitive soul can do to change this situation. All conscientious appeals will be ignored.

    Read More
    • Replies: @John Derbyshire

    Evolution loves death more than it loves you or me … we are moral creatures, then, in an amoral world. The universe that suckled us is a monster that does not care if we live or die—does not care if it itself grinds to a halt … space is a beauty married to a blind man. The blind man is Freedom, or Time, and he does not go anywhere without his great dog Death.
     
    (Annie Dillard Pilgrim at Tinker Creek, quoted in We Are Doomed.)
  47. The strangest axiom of planet earth is the hardcore reality that every single living organism is expendable. Mother Nature declares it to be so. And that is all.

    All concern for extinct species is a fever in the minds of a precious few humanoids. There is no other concerned party in the universe. Certainly Mother Nature herself is “at peace” with extinction and, yes, even mass extinction.

    It is reasonable to assume that the vicious global elite is in harmony with Mother Nature to a much greater extent than regular folks.

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  48. @jtgw
    Is my impression correct that it has become more un-PC to talk about population control in Africa over the past decade? As others here note, it used to be that the left was all about saving the planet and lowering human fertility, while it was the religious right that thundered against promoting abortion and contraception. When did the left start to think that population control was racist and Bad?

    Not just the last ten years, for the last twenty to thirty years. The population control movement had its heyday in the 60s and 70s. Politicians at the highest level all across the globe were on board with reducing fertility. In the mid-70s India carried out eight million sterilizations in one year. But the way the programs were carried out led to a backlash. Not only were some procedures botched, which led to deaths, but there began to be concern that people being forced to comply. A backlash against eugenics developed in the 70s, helped along by the newly created holocaust awareness campaign. In the 80s feminists added their voices to complaints about abuses and began to change the focus of population planners to women’s health (genital mutilation and AIDS were common themes), education and workplace opportunities. Despite initial resistance from the fast-fading eugenicist wing of the population control movement – reduced births to educated women runs contrary to eugenicist values – this ‘well-being and opportunity’ perspective was adopted in the 90s and today dominates fertility-related issues.

    Read More
  49. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @For what it's worth
    A note of disagreement: The problem here isn't the fertility of Africa, it's the demographic suicide of the West. There wouldn't be such a demand for cheap labor in the West if the West bred their own lower classes. I say, God bless any nation that wants to leave behind a genetic footprint. And to hell with any nation that doesn't.

    Italy, the victim of this invasion suffers from massive unemployment, particularly youth unemployment.
    The shit-headed economic policies of the EU are responsible for this.
    Italy has had sub replacement fertility for decades now.
    This gives the lie to that off asserted ‘fact’ that western nations will ‘need’ mass immigration in order to counter a ‘shortage of young workers’.

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  50. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @For what it's worth
    Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I'm guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don't, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.

    All these things are ‘mortal sins, to whom?

    Yourself?
    The Catholic Church?

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  51. @For what it's worth
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, "We need fewer of you, for our own sake," sounds pretty racist to me. As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents' numbers down.

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, “We need fewer of you, for our own sake,” sounds pretty racist to me.

    If your race is forced to subsidize them you should get a say in how many of them are created.

    As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents’ numbers down.

    Why just Europe? Surely racial blocs like east Asia, India, Arabia and S. America wouldn’t want to be left behind. In other words, a breeding war – and all because contraception is a ‘mortal sin.’ Religious kookery at its very finest.

    Read More
  52. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Anonymous
    Thank you, Steve. I think what I am trying to ask is, what is the fundamental cause of the population explosion? The only factors mentioned in The Economist article (for example, lack of contraceptive use) have existed since time immemorial. I apologize if I am inquiring after the obvious--What is driving this? Why now (or the relative "now" of last fifty years)? What has changed? Does everyone just know/assume the cause? It seems like one of those basic background facts that should be included in a magazine article like this.

    Western medicine and food aid. The population of Africa was kept low by disease, maternal and child mortality and their inability to produce or distribute food. Modern science has dramatically reduced death rates, increased the amount of food produced in Africa, improved food distribution, and directly provides food for a hundred million Africans

    Read More
  53. @E. Harding
    I think it will be extremely easy to reduce Niger's extraordinarily high TFR the same way Germany, Japan, and Vietnam did -rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.
    If you look at Niger's cities, it is clear that they exist for largely the same reasons cities existed in Korea or southern China before the mid-20th century -as bins for excess population. Niger, I think, will be just as easy to urbanize as South Korea or Japan. Look at how Russia and Brazil (countries much less easy to urbanize) manage to reduce their extraordinarily high TFRs with the help of rapid state-guided urbanization and industrialization (anyone remember the Brazilian Miracle?).

    The problem for Niger that makes things much more difficult for it than for Japan or Vietnam, or course, is the fact that it is landlocked, thus giving it much less access to markets in the developed world.

    Simply giving contraception to people will not change any underlying incentives: most of the inhabitants of Niger want children, and lots of them, too. Most people in Japan do not, despite the fact that, like Niger today, Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century and was constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit, want enough children for Japan's population to continue growing.

    Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century

    Soichiro Honda, born in the 20th century, came from a family of nine. (They’d need at least two Odysseys.)

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  54. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @For what it's worth
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, "We need fewer of you, for our own sake," sounds pretty racist to me. As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents' numbers down.

    Look.
    If they stopped trying to move in on us and take over our countries, no one would really care about their fertility rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @fnn
    You don't care about the extermination of wildlife and the destruction of ecosystems?
  55. @Anonymous
    Look.
    If they stopped trying to move in on us and take over our countries, no one would really care about their fertility rates.

    You don’t care about the extermination of wildlife and the destruction of ecosystems?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Truth
    No one ever does, Sport, until it is too late.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venatio
  56. @athEIst
    whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    Fuck Africa, I'm worried about what Africa belches forth as it dies in war, famine, and pestilence.

    Well, I certainly share your concerns, but my point was to place the blame on leftist policies and sentiment so as to prevent them shifting it onto us.

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  57. There are moments when I wonder: have our leaders really gone insane, or do they know something they’re not telling us? Like maybe there’s a comet headed our way, too big to do anything about, so there’s no point to worrying about the demography of the late 21st century.

    Nah.

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  58. Nigeria has a TFR which is nearer to the TFR of Niger than to the TFR of Pakistan. And Nigeria has already a huge population

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  59. The post by “african”, #58 (now), deserves to be noted and expanded upon. “America feeds the world” is a phrase often used in the domestic agricultural industry. Wheat, rice, corn, soybeans — all produced at significantly greater quantities than can be used within U.S. borders. They flow out to other countries and undercut a lot of traditional agriculture; hence massive pressure to move into commodity crops, e.g. coffee, cacao, oil palm. (What commodity crops can be produced in arid/desert regions?)

    Beyond the cheap cereals and legumes, there are manufactured food products. Powdered milk (to take one example) might seem like an item of last resort to the average American, but in much of the world it is a technological marvel. Easily transportable, almost immune to spoilage. A favored food aid product. Another “modern marvel” – iodized salt. Another one – refined sugar. Even “white flour”, which lacks the rancidity-prone germ and bran components. Centuries ago the finest, whitest flour was a (moderate) luxury good; now it’s commonly viewed by Westerners as a diabolical plot against human health.

    According to a news report last year, most of the chicken legs produced in the E.U. are exported to Africa — European consumer demand for white meat significantly exceeds that for dark (poultry) meat.

    There’s also the tremendous change in transportation and storage. Asphalt, the internal combustion engine, the refrigerator — all technological developments produced by heavily K-oriented subpopulations, after millenia of step-by-step attainment. Sterile plastic packaging is a huge step up from, say, burlap (etc.) sacks, porous woven baskets, clay pots…

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    It just shows how useless they are if they even have to import 'chicken legs' from somewhere else, somewhere else that has cost factors orders of magnitude higher than they have.
  60. “Would you like to know more?” About the food aid mentioned in #58 — read up on the World Food Programme.

    On Wikipedia: “(In 2007) nearly one million Yum!, KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver’s and A&W All American Food employees, franchisees and their families volunteered close to 4 million hours to aid hunger relief efforts in communities worldwide, while helping to raise $16 million throughout the World Hunger Relief Week initiative for the World Food Programme and other hunger relief agencies around the world. The initiative has been repeated every year since.”

    Criticism by Kenyan economist James Shikwati: WFP answers too easily to the calls of the corrupted governments, and supplies too much of food aid leading to reduction of the production of local farmers as “no one can compete with the UN’s World Food Program”.

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  61. an even more gruesome example of African fertility than Niger is Ghana. Niger has even more subsaharan African standards an extremely high fertility. Ghana on the side is seen perceived an african success story, a place where everything is just a little bit better than n the rest of Africa. Yet the TFR in Ghana shows an alarming trend: after having had sunk to a little over 3.0 it has risen again in recent years, up to 4.0.

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    • Replies: @Bert

    Yet the TFR in Ghana shows an alarming trend: after having had sunk to a little over 3.0 it has risen again in recent years, up to 4.0.
     
    West Africa is currently experiencing a Muslim population explosion. It's most acutely felt in Nigeria but it exists all over the region. Muslims were 16% in 2000 but shot up to 18% in 2010. And that number will only get higher.
  62. Here is the problem.

    “Under a Protracted Relief and Rehabilitation Operation (PRRO), WFP implements: Food for Assets activities promoting land regeneration and water harvesting/irrigation activities towards increased local production; year-round Targeted Supplementary Feeding for moderately acute malnourished children 6-59 months and pregnant/nursing mothers…”

    This is like having a rodent infestation so you feed the pregnant female and baby rodents. Of course one reason the WFP must ‘target’ its food distribution programs is because they found if they just dropped bulk food off in villages the men would seize it and it would show up in market towns for sale.

    Interesting too that Niger is now housing refugees from Northern Nigeria. Boko Haram ( now an off shoot of Obama’s ‘junior varsity’ ISIL ) is the ‘security problem’. You know things are bad when you have to seek asylum in Niger but at least there is a functioning World Food Program operation there.

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  63. @planet of war
    Don't want to be too vicious about it ... but this is only a problem for soft men.

    For hard men ... this is not a big problem.

    Mother Nature loves hard men and rewards them. What a cruel bitch she is! Presiding over mass die-offs on this planet since the beginning.

    You might get the idea that Mother Nature loves death every bit as she does love life.

    She stacks the bodies high! And there's nothing that any sensitive soul can do to change this situation. All conscientious appeals will be ignored.

    Evolution loves death more than it loves you or me … we are moral creatures, then, in an amoral world. The universe that suckled us is a monster that does not care if we live or die—does not care if it itself grinds to a halt … space is a beauty married to a blind man. The blind man is Freedom, or Time, and he does not go anywhere without his great dog Death.

    (Annie Dillard Pilgrim at Tinker Creek, quoted in We Are Doomed.)

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  64. @athEIst
    whatever suffering befalls Africa.

    Fuck Africa, I'm worried about what Africa belches forth as it dies in war, famine, and pestilence.

    Potty mouth!

    Read More
  65. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Anonymous
    Thank you, Steve. I think what I am trying to ask is, what is the fundamental cause of the population explosion? The only factors mentioned in The Economist article (for example, lack of contraceptive use) have existed since time immemorial. I apologize if I am inquiring after the obvious--What is driving this? Why now (or the relative "now" of last fifty years)? What has changed? Does everyone just know/assume the cause? It seems like one of those basic background facts that should be included in a magazine article like this.

    Its simple. African and other third world countries got access to pharmaceuticals – penecillin, etc and thus death rate decreased – maybe not down to western levels but definitely decreases. Culture hasn’t changed and takes time – usually the tipping point is when women get rights and start working and don’t want to have 6 kids.

    Read More
  66. @For what it's worth
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, "We need fewer of you, for our own sake," sounds pretty racist to me. As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents' numbers down.

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, “We need fewer of you, for our own sake,” sounds pretty racist to me.

    You seem to be missing the point about how high rates of population growth are bad for Africa:”You need fewer of you, for your own sake.”

    Read More
  67. hate to be a-scientific and a-graphic and all that, but did the phenomenon of large-scale refuge-seeking across the Mediterranean take place before the destabilization programs in Egypt, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, etc.?

    Anyone ever travel by car along the Pennsylvania turnpike?

    There’s a lot of there there.

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  68. TB2 [AKA "JohnB"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Fundamental reason? What no machine guns in France, no atomic bombs? This is a conscious program of extermination through colonialism, and citing birth rates, whether of the invader or of the natives, is blaming the victim. This is policy, not a natural phenomenon. Start seeing the governments throughout the West in their actual reality, past the smoke screen of democracy or even basic loyalty to the nations they are destroying. View them as occupational colonial governments interested only in exploiting the natives unto death (though their primary drive is racism, not profit). This is your true relationship to the people who govern you. Bringing in other populations to occupy a hated conquered nation in order to permanently destroy that nation is classic colonialist behavior.

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  69. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @For what it's worth
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    I know this is meant as something of a punchline, but such policies are in fact racist. For people of one race to look at people of another race and say, "We need fewer of you, for our own sake," sounds pretty racist to me. As I was saying above, Europe should think more about keeping its own (native) numbers high than about keeping other continents' numbers down.

    Wasn’t something like this the title of a PJ O’Rourke essay? “Just enough of me, too many of you.”

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  70. @Ripple Earthdevil
    Am I correct that fairly recently the "correct" pronunciation of Niger changed from NYE-jer to Nih-JAIR? Due to some PC considerations?

    It was a French colony, so the currently favored English pronunciation was probably always the most correct one. It also helps to keep it mentally separate from Nigeria.

    I’ve also noticed that Ivory Coast is now increasingly referred to by its French rather than English name.

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    It was a French colony, so the currently favored English pronunciation was probably always the most correct one.
     
    The country is named for the river, which is NY-ger in English. The name supposedly came from Berber via Italian, so the English and the French have each mangled it in their own inimitable way.

    I say stick with our own mangle.
  71. @For what it's worth
    Last I checked, artificial contraception, sterilization, and abortion were still mortal sins. I'm guessing many Africans agree with that, and many readers here don't, which is why Africa is prevailing in world demographic growth while the West becomes increasingly dystopian.

    The rhythm method of birth control is approved by the Catholic church and has been proven effective, although obviously not to the extent of long-lasting hormone injections or IUDs. By most interpretations, Islam permits birth control as long as its use is a mutual decision and it’s not permanent or harmful to the body. In many traditional African cultures, there were taboos surrounding sexual activity in the period after childbirth. This had the effect of helping to space out births; something that’s usually good for the health (and mental health) of both mothers and children, although it may have also led some men to have sex with other women in the meantime.

    You’re right that there are many Africans who likely view contraception as sinful, but there are probably more who’d use birth control, at least to space births out, if they had better access to it and knowledge of effective methods. Attitudes also need to shift, but that’s not just in terms of what’s sinful, but in terms of behavioral ideals. Having more children than you can take care of isn’t smart or godly, polygamy mostly benefits “big men,” and children giving birth to children is not only unnecessary, but it’s bad for mothers, their babies, and the societies themselves where it’s common.

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  72. @Priss Factor
    "But very little energy in the West has been devoted in recent decades to promoting family planning in Africa because that would be racist."

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.

    and in US too. Cons are opposed to abortion even though the sane policy is to pay blacks to have them.

    “Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.”

    If that were true, there should be sizable differences in TFR between predominantly Catholic, and, say, predominantly Anglican regions of Africa.

    Likewise, a similar discrepancy should also be evident with regard to higher AIDS transmission as the result of Catholic views against condoms that Anglicans do not share. I haven’t broken out the figures for the fertility numbers, but much to the disappointment of the Catholics-want-Africans-to-die-of-AIDS contingent (i.e. the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd, more or less), others have crunched the numbers for AIDS and found no such discrepancy.

    Which suggests you don’t have a clue about what you’re talking about with regard to African birth control, either, though I doubt that that’s ever stopped you before.

    In any case, Brazil is not the problem here, it’s Africa. So find a bogeyman other than Catholics and Evangelicals to blame for this. Maybe you could instead find some way to blame Jews for everything — that’s pretty much all you ever do, anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas. But I could be wrong ...
    , @Steve Sailer
    The country where the Catholic Church is definitely contributing to overpopulation is the Philippines. Even the Pope said after his eye-opening recent visit there that Catholics shouldn't go quite so hog wild on this no family planning thing.

    But the Catholic Church's prestige there is related to Cardinal Sin helping bring down the Marcos dictatorship.

    , @Priss Factor
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArSLNJNUEIM

    I didn't say Catholics and Evangelicals are primarily to blame. I said they didn't help any with their God-loves-every-sperm message.

    Of course, the main reason is the Negroes. They be crazy and wild and not-too-bright. And mighty hornery.

    Western progs did promote birth control in Africa, but it's hard to make Negroes follow instructions since they just don't have modern mind-set about womenfolks rights and stuff.
    Western progs' real damage came from all the aid and medicine and food that lowered infant mortality.

    On the other hand, Caths and Evangelicals have tended to spread the anti-abortion and even anti-contraceptive message all over the world.
    That's one thing you don't want to do with Negroes.

    I think our view on abortion should be racially based. Oppose abortion for white folks and offer free abortion for black folks.

    Suppose we argue that the higher being that governs the world wants such at least for now.
    Since white folks are not having each kids, the higher being wants no abortion for whites.
    But since Negroes be having too many kids who be acting like tards, the higher being recommends that Negroes be offered free abortion.

    White people having more kids and black people having fewer kids will be good for both peoples.

    If there were many more whites than blacks in the world, whites would do a better job of helping out to make things good for blacks.
  73. The rhythm method of birth control is approved by the Catholic church and has been proven effective,

    No — Natural Family Planning, the current method favored by the Catholic church, is not the same thing as the Rhythm Method. It is substantially more effective than the Rhythm Method. See this book for an overview of Fertility Awareness Method, of which NFP is a type. Basically, FAM in general consists in measuring observable signs of female fertility and then either abstaining or using a barrier method during times of possible fertility (about 10 days a month). NFP is the same, except it relies solely on abstinence during times of possible fertility.

    My wife and I use FAM, and do not find it a difficult method. It has many benefits, not least of which is that you aren’t running the risk of aborting unknowingly, as you are with many hormonal contraceptives. But I do not know how widespread the method is in Africa or how teachable it is to most Africans.

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  74. @HA
    "Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa."

    If that were true, there should be sizable differences in TFR between predominantly Catholic, and, say, predominantly Anglican regions of Africa.

    Likewise, a similar discrepancy should also be evident with regard to higher AIDS transmission as the result of Catholic views against condoms that Anglicans do not share. I haven't broken out the figures for the fertility numbers, but much to the disappointment of the Catholics-want-Africans-to-die-of-AIDS contingent (i.e. the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd, more or less), others have crunched the numbers for AIDS and found no such discrepancy.

    Which suggests you don't have a clue about what you're talking about with regard to African birth control, either, though I doubt that that's ever stopped you before.

    In any case, Brazil is not the problem here, it's Africa. So find a bogeyman other than Catholics and Evangelicals to blame for this. Maybe you could instead find some way to blame Jews for everything -- that's pretty much all you ever do, anyway.

    I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas. But I could be wrong …

    Read More
    • Replies: @HA
    "I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas."

    We may well be talking about the same studies -- I believe the yes-to-condoms Protestant areas did indeed have somewhat higher rates of AIDS than the no-to-condoms Catholic areas (at least "no" in the doctrinal sense), but as I recall the differences were not so striking as to be able to definitively claim any kind of victory for Catholics (or Moslems, for that matter), given how dismal the numbers were everywhere.

    But as for disproving the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd's canard about Catholicism devastating Africans with AIDS, the data do that well enough. They similarly indicate that Priss Factor is a blowhard who enjoys spouting off crackpot ideas on topics he is ignorant of, but that should have been obvious to most anyone by now.

    As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there's more to the problem than Catholicism per se.

    , @Anonymous
    It's been said before, but perhaps Islam is the right religion for African blacks since the enormous emphasis is.am puts on self-discipline, self-control and the tough penalties demanded of thieves, adulterers, criminals etc. Only with such an 'iron hand' ruling over them will African bkacks ever present the tiniest modicum of morality to the outside world.
  75. @HA
    "Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa."

    If that were true, there should be sizable differences in TFR between predominantly Catholic, and, say, predominantly Anglican regions of Africa.

    Likewise, a similar discrepancy should also be evident with regard to higher AIDS transmission as the result of Catholic views against condoms that Anglicans do not share. I haven't broken out the figures for the fertility numbers, but much to the disappointment of the Catholics-want-Africans-to-die-of-AIDS contingent (i.e. the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd, more or less), others have crunched the numbers for AIDS and found no such discrepancy.

    Which suggests you don't have a clue about what you're talking about with regard to African birth control, either, though I doubt that that's ever stopped you before.

    In any case, Brazil is not the problem here, it's Africa. So find a bogeyman other than Catholics and Evangelicals to blame for this. Maybe you could instead find some way to blame Jews for everything -- that's pretty much all you ever do, anyway.

    The country where the Catholic Church is definitely contributing to overpopulation is the Philippines. Even the Pope said after his eye-opening recent visit there that Catholics shouldn’t go quite so hog wild on this no family planning thing.

    But the Catholic Church’s prestige there is related to Cardinal Sin helping bring down the Marcos dictatorship.

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  76. @Erik Sieven
    an even more gruesome example of African fertility than Niger is Ghana. Niger has even more subsaharan African standards an extremely high fertility. Ghana on the side is seen perceived an african success story, a place where everything is just a little bit better than n the rest of Africa. Yet the TFR in Ghana shows an alarming trend: after having had sunk to a little over 3.0 it has risen again in recent years, up to 4.0.

    Yet the TFR in Ghana shows an alarming trend: after having had sunk to a little over 3.0 it has risen again in recent years, up to 4.0.

    West Africa is currently experiencing a Muslim population explosion. It’s most acutely felt in Nigeria but it exists all over the region. Muslims were 16% in 2000 but shot up to 18% in 2010. And that number will only get higher.

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    • Replies: @silviosilver
    Can you substantiate that claim Bert? All data I have seen shows African Christianity expanding at the expense of African Islam.
  77. Priss Factor [AKA "The Priss Factor"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @HA
    "Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa."

    If that were true, there should be sizable differences in TFR between predominantly Catholic, and, say, predominantly Anglican regions of Africa.

    Likewise, a similar discrepancy should also be evident with regard to higher AIDS transmission as the result of Catholic views against condoms that Anglicans do not share. I haven't broken out the figures for the fertility numbers, but much to the disappointment of the Catholics-want-Africans-to-die-of-AIDS contingent (i.e. the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd, more or less), others have crunched the numbers for AIDS and found no such discrepancy.

    Which suggests you don't have a clue about what you're talking about with regard to African birth control, either, though I doubt that that's ever stopped you before.

    In any case, Brazil is not the problem here, it's Africa. So find a bogeyman other than Catholics and Evangelicals to blame for this. Maybe you could instead find some way to blame Jews for everything -- that's pretty much all you ever do, anyway.

    I didn’t say Catholics and Evangelicals are primarily to blame. I said they didn’t help any with their God-loves-every-sperm message.

    Of course, the main reason is the Negroes. They be crazy and wild and not-too-bright. And mighty hornery.

    Western progs did promote birth control in Africa, but it’s hard to make Negroes follow instructions since they just don’t have modern mind-set about womenfolks rights and stuff.
    Western progs’ real damage came from all the aid and medicine and food that lowered infant mortality.

    On the other hand, Caths and Evangelicals have tended to spread the anti-abortion and even anti-contraceptive message all over the world.
    That’s one thing you don’t want to do with Negroes.

    I think our view on abortion should be racially based. Oppose abortion for white folks and offer free abortion for black folks.

    Suppose we argue that the higher being that governs the world wants such at least for now.
    Since white folks are not having each kids, the higher being wants no abortion for whites.
    But since Negroes be having too many kids who be acting like tards, the higher being recommends that Negroes be offered free abortion.

    White people having more kids and black people having fewer kids will be good for both peoples.

    If there were many more whites than blacks in the world, whites would do a better job of helping out to make things good for blacks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @HA

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.
     

    I didn’t say Catholics and Evangelicals are primarily to blame. I said they didn’t help any with their God-loves-every-sperm message.
     
    OK. I take it there is some fundamental difference between having "led the way" and being "primarily to blame". Who knew?

    In any case, to the extent that Christians believe or don't believe that God loves every sperm, as you so asininely put it, they do so on principle. They don't stop first to calculate how many fewer Africans there will be on this planet as a result. Like it or not, Christianity has not yet been subjugated to the dictates of your intense hatred of the Untermensch, but when they elect you pope, you can go ahead and try to work that in. Until then, try and find something you know something about before pontificating on it.

  78. @Bert

    Yet the TFR in Ghana shows an alarming trend: after having had sunk to a little over 3.0 it has risen again in recent years, up to 4.0.
     
    West Africa is currently experiencing a Muslim population explosion. It's most acutely felt in Nigeria but it exists all over the region. Muslims were 16% in 2000 but shot up to 18% in 2010. And that number will only get higher.

    Can you substantiate that claim Bert? All data I have seen shows African Christianity expanding at the expense of African Islam.

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  79. The problem goes back to decolonization. That lead to instability, conflict and decline in living standards.

    “Many people in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ravaged by war, hunger and disease, articulated the same sentiment. Ted Koppel, an American television journalist, visited eastern Congo in 2001 and produced a documentary showing women who had been raped, beaten and starved by the rebels, pleading for help. It was a poignant report. They made it clear, abundantly clear, in that documentary that it was only white people who could save them from misery and suffering. Once you see and hear that, then you may begin to understand why some Congolese felt it would have been better if the Belgians came back to rule them again and maintian law and order.”

    http://africanstudies.tripod.com

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Belgium, don't do it!

    The fact that there is can enormous African population in Belgium is enough justification to wash its hands of Congo.
  80. anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    http://africanstudies.tripod.com

    AFRICA IS IN A MESS: SHOULD IT BE RECOLONIZED?

    It’s a legitimate question. People who care should have a conversation about this. How do you best help without creating enemies of those you try to help, without falling into patterns of “doing well for oneself” while “doing good”?

    The current strategy seems to be to back a Big Man and buy off the government/management class… but in a lot of these places even the Big Man doesn’t seem to have much real control.

    How do you best employee all these people?

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  81. @Steve Sailer
    I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas. But I could be wrong ...

    “I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas.”

    We may well be talking about the same studies — I believe the yes-to-condoms Protestant areas did indeed have somewhat higher rates of AIDS than the no-to-condoms Catholic areas (at least “no” in the doctrinal sense), but as I recall the differences were not so striking as to be able to definitively claim any kind of victory for Catholics (or Moslems, for that matter), given how dismal the numbers were everywhere.

    But as for disproving the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd’s canard about Catholicism devastating Africans with AIDS, the data do that well enough. They similarly indicate that Priss Factor is a blowhard who enjoys spouting off crackpot ideas on topics he is ignorant of, but that should have been obvious to most anyone by now.

    As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there’s more to the problem than Catholicism per se.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ezra
    "As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there’s more to the problem than Catholicism per se."

    Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines.

    TFR in Indonesia is 2.3/
    TFR in P.I. is 3
  82. I always found the Lutheran (LCMS) position more reasonable.

    Contraception pills/barrier devices are fine as long as they don’t cause abortions.
    Abortion bad.
    If you’re barely living as it is, having a kid isn’t a good idea. God gave us brains for a reason.
    Families are to have kids.

    I think if it was sold along those lines you would get support from virtually all Evangelicals and most Catholics (at least behind the scenes).

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    • Replies: @HA
    The standard Catholic line, since Casti Connubi, continues to be that contraception of all kinds is bad, and that if you can't responsibly raise kids, then you shouldn't. If you can't abide by that, you're certainly not alone. (For what it's worth, that whole "thou shalt not lie" business isn't all that popular either.)

    But assuming you decide you want to cheat, fudge, or rationalize your way down a more realistic path, I'm not sure why you would expect a Christian church to instruct you on the best way to do that. That's on you. After all, to paraphrase the New Testament, the children of this world are shrewder than the children of light when it comes to shucking and jiving. If your church thinks that bending the rules to fit the times is fine, well, that's good for you, I guess.

    But remember, squaring sex (or most any other bodily function) with Christianity is like trying to flatten a bump in a rug. Quash it down in one place, and it will pop out in another. Just because the Lutherans do a good job, in your opinion, in the matter of contraception doesn't mean they're not part of the problem in other ways. After all, it's not just that the Africans are having way too many kids in Steve's graph -- it's also that Europeans aren't having enough. And it is Catholicism that, for decades, has been almost the sole institution in the West that has had the guts to go out on a limb about that, and for that reason they deserve more credit than they are given, here and elsewhere.

  83. @IBC
    It was a French colony, so the currently favored English pronunciation was probably always the most correct one. It also helps to keep it mentally separate from Nigeria.

    I've also noticed that Ivory Coast is now increasingly referred to by its French rather than English name.

    It was a French colony, so the currently favored English pronunciation was probably always the most correct one.

    The country is named for the river, which is NY-ger in English. The name supposedly came from Berber via Italian, so the English and the French have each mangled it in their own inimitable way.

    I say stick with our own mangle.

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  84. OT, but the Zeta Beta Tau veteran beating story doesn’t seem to have the same legs as the UVA fake rape story, or the U of Okalahoma frat scandal, and in this case, there was violence against disabled vets, with seemingly solid the evidence. Could this be because ZBT is a Jewish organization? This should be all over the news!

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  85. @Terrahawk
    I always found the Lutheran (LCMS) position more reasonable.

    Contraception pills/barrier devices are fine as long as they don't cause abortions.
    Abortion bad.
    If you're barely living as it is, having a kid isn't a good idea. God gave us brains for a reason.
    Families are to have kids.

    I think if it was sold along those lines you would get support from virtually all Evangelicals and most Catholics (at least behind the scenes).

    The standard Catholic line, since Casti Connubi, continues to be that contraception of all kinds is bad, and that if you can’t responsibly raise kids, then you shouldn’t. If you can’t abide by that, you’re certainly not alone. (For what it’s worth, that whole “thou shalt not lie” business isn’t all that popular either.)

    But assuming you decide you want to cheat, fudge, or rationalize your way down a more realistic path, I’m not sure why you would expect a Christian church to instruct you on the best way to do that. That’s on you. After all, to paraphrase the New Testament, the children of this world are shrewder than the children of light when it comes to shucking and jiving. If your church thinks that bending the rules to fit the times is fine, well, that’s good for you, I guess.

    But remember, squaring sex (or most any other bodily function) with Christianity is like trying to flatten a bump in a rug. Quash it down in one place, and it will pop out in another. Just because the Lutherans do a good job, in your opinion, in the matter of contraception doesn’t mean they’re not part of the problem in other ways. After all, it’s not just that the Africans are having way too many kids in Steve’s graph — it’s also that Europeans aren’t having enough. And it is Catholicism that, for decades, has been almost the sole institution in the West that has had the guts to go out on a limb about that, and for that reason they deserve more credit than they are given, here and elsewhere.

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  86. @HA
    "I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas."

    We may well be talking about the same studies -- I believe the yes-to-condoms Protestant areas did indeed have somewhat higher rates of AIDS than the no-to-condoms Catholic areas (at least "no" in the doctrinal sense), but as I recall the differences were not so striking as to be able to definitively claim any kind of victory for Catholics (or Moslems, for that matter), given how dismal the numbers were everywhere.

    But as for disproving the Hitchens/Dawkins crowd's canard about Catholicism devastating Africans with AIDS, the data do that well enough. They similarly indicate that Priss Factor is a blowhard who enjoys spouting off crackpot ideas on topics he is ignorant of, but that should have been obvious to most anyone by now.

    As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there's more to the problem than Catholicism per se.

    “As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there’s more to the problem than Catholicism per se.”

    Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines.

    TFR in Indonesia is 2.3/
    TFR in P.I. is 3

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Indonesia's tfr maybe 2.6 or higher.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-27/indonesia-facing-populace-larger-than-u-s-revives-birth-control
    , @HA
    "Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines."

    An even better one is Moro, and any other Muslim-dominated areas of the Philippines. (For good measure, it'd make sense to separate out Aceh and any other Catholic areas of Indonesia.)

    Given the totality of the data, however they hash out -- not to mention my original reference to countries like Brazil -- pretending that Catholicism is the problem at a time when white Europeans are contracepting themselves into oblivion takes an astonishing amount of chutzpah. To take another New Testament reference, there's that thing about motes and beams.

    Moreover, caught between the conflicting accusations of "Catholics are murdering Africans with AIDS!" and "Catholics are destroying the planet with overpopulation! (and by the way, Mr. African, here's a few smallpox blankets and a box of condoms to take back home with you)", I'd say Catholicism deserves more credit than it's typically given.

  87. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Ezra
    "As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there’s more to the problem than Catholicism per se."

    Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines.

    TFR in Indonesia is 2.3/
    TFR in P.I. is 3
    Read More
  88. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @PB and J
    The post by "african", #58 (now), deserves to be noted and expanded upon. "America feeds the world" is a phrase often used in the domestic agricultural industry. Wheat, rice, corn, soybeans -- all produced at significantly greater quantities than can be used within U.S. borders. They flow out to other countries and undercut a lot of traditional agriculture; hence massive pressure to move into commodity crops, e.g. coffee, cacao, oil palm. (What commodity crops can be produced in arid/desert regions?)

    Beyond the cheap cereals and legumes, there are manufactured food products. Powdered milk (to take one example) might seem like an item of last resort to the average American, but in much of the world it is a technological marvel. Easily transportable, almost immune to spoilage. A favored food aid product. Another "modern marvel" - iodized salt. Another one - refined sugar. Even "white flour", which lacks the rancidity-prone germ and bran components. Centuries ago the finest, whitest flour was a (moderate) luxury good; now it's commonly viewed by Westerners as a diabolical plot against human health.

    According to a news report last year, most of the chicken legs produced in the E.U. are exported to Africa -- European consumer demand for white meat significantly exceeds that for dark (poultry) meat.

    There's also the tremendous change in transportation and storage. Asphalt, the internal combustion engine, the refrigerator -- all technological developments produced by heavily K-oriented subpopulations, after millenia of step-by-step attainment. Sterile plastic packaging is a huge step up from, say, burlap (etc.) sacks, porous woven baskets, clay pots...

    It just shows how useless they are if they even have to import ‘chicken legs’ from somewhere else, somewhere else that has cost factors orders of magnitude higher than they have.

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    • Replies: @PB and J
    I'm sure there's plenty of localized poultry production. The issue is more about variations in consumer demand by region. As I recall most of the "chitlins", beef tripes, and chicken feet produced in the U.S. get exported abroad. Just as in the U.S. I see beef coming in from as far away as Brazil and Australia.

    But the point was that it dovetails with the trend of cheaper cereal commodities undercutting local producers in developing countries. Europeans want mostly white meat, and it's impossible to produce legless birds, so the excess gets "dumped" on second-tier markets.
  89. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Steve Sailer
    I vaguely recall a study finding that AIDS rates in Africa, all else being equal, were lower in Muslim areas, middling in Catholic areas, and highest in Protestant areas. But I could be wrong ...

    It’s been said before, but perhaps Islam is the right religion for African blacks since the enormous emphasis is.am puts on self-discipline, self-control and the tough penalties demanded of thieves, adulterers, criminals etc. Only with such an ‘iron hand’ ruling over them will African bkacks ever present the tiniest modicum of morality to the outside world.

    Read More
    • Replies: @HA
    "It’s been said before, but perhaps Islam is the right religion for African blacks..."

    It's been said before, you say? Apparently, idiocy has a long echo. I suppose Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab exemplify the order and tranquility that ensue whenever the 'iron hand' of Islam, as you put it, takes a whack at sub-Saharan Africa.

  90. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Mike
    The problem goes back to decolonization. That lead to instability, conflict and decline in living standards.

    "Many people in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ravaged by war, hunger and disease, articulated the same sentiment. Ted Koppel, an American television journalist, visited eastern Congo in 2001 and produced a documentary showing women who had been raped, beaten and starved by the rebels, pleading for help. It was a poignant report. They made it clear, abundantly clear, in that documentary that it was only white people who could save them from misery and suffering. Once you see and hear that, then you may begin to understand why some Congolese felt it would have been better if the Belgians came back to rule them again and maintian law and order."

    http://africanstudies.tripod.com

    Belgium, don’t do it!

    The fact that there is can enormous African population in Belgium is enough justification to wash its hands of Congo.

    Read More
  91. @E. Harding
    I think it will be extremely easy to reduce Niger's extraordinarily high TFR the same way Germany, Japan, and Vietnam did -rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.
    If you look at Niger's cities, it is clear that they exist for largely the same reasons cities existed in Korea or southern China before the mid-20th century -as bins for excess population. Niger, I think, will be just as easy to urbanize as South Korea or Japan. Look at how Russia and Brazil (countries much less easy to urbanize) manage to reduce their extraordinarily high TFRs with the help of rapid state-guided urbanization and industrialization (anyone remember the Brazilian Miracle?).

    The problem for Niger that makes things much more difficult for it than for Japan or Vietnam, or course, is the fact that it is landlocked, thus giving it much less access to markets in the developed world.

    Simply giving contraception to people will not change any underlying incentives: most of the inhabitants of Niger want children, and lots of them, too. Most people in Japan do not, despite the fact that, like Niger today, Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century and was constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit, want enough children for Japan's population to continue growing.

    You’re wrong. Japan’s population was stable in the eighteenth century. There were seere famnes, but they really only affected the north. There are quite a few studies, but a short one is in Conrad Totman’s Japan Before Tokugawa.

    Japan’s population rose from the 1870′s to the 1970′s.

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  92. @Ezra
    "As for the Philipines, a comparison with the Muslim (or the evangelical) areas there would be helpful in making your case, and given that Pope Francis himself is addressing the problem, maybe there’s more to the problem than Catholicism per se."

    Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines.

    TFR in Indonesia is 2.3/
    TFR in P.I. is 3

    “Muslim Indonesia is a natural comparison for the Philippines.”

    An even better one is Moro, and any other Muslim-dominated areas of the Philippines. (For good measure, it’d make sense to separate out Aceh and any other Catholic areas of Indonesia.)

    Given the totality of the data, however they hash out — not to mention my original reference to countries like Brazil — pretending that Catholicism is the problem at a time when white Europeans are contracepting themselves into oblivion takes an astonishing amount of chutzpah. To take another New Testament reference, there’s that thing about motes and beams.

    Moreover, caught between the conflicting accusations of “Catholics are murdering Africans with AIDS!” and “Catholics are destroying the planet with overpopulation! (and by the way, Mr. African, here’s a few smallpox blankets and a box of condoms to take back home with you)”, I’d say Catholicism deserves more credit than it’s typically given.

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  93. @E. Harding
    I think it will be extremely easy to reduce Niger's extraordinarily high TFR the same way Germany, Japan, and Vietnam did -rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.
    If you look at Niger's cities, it is clear that they exist for largely the same reasons cities existed in Korea or southern China before the mid-20th century -as bins for excess population. Niger, I think, will be just as easy to urbanize as South Korea or Japan. Look at how Russia and Brazil (countries much less easy to urbanize) manage to reduce their extraordinarily high TFRs with the help of rapid state-guided urbanization and industrialization (anyone remember the Brazilian Miracle?).

    The problem for Niger that makes things much more difficult for it than for Japan or Vietnam, or course, is the fact that it is landlocked, thus giving it much less access to markets in the developed world.

    Simply giving contraception to people will not change any underlying incentives: most of the inhabitants of Niger want children, and lots of them, too. Most people in Japan do not, despite the fact that, like Niger today, Japan had extraordinary Total Fertility Rates in the 18th century and was constantly bumping against the Malthusian limit, want enough children for Japan's population to continue growing.

    >>rapid economic reform, rapid industrialization, and rapid urbanization.<<

    Couple of points:
    -competitive modern industry requires and educated and skilled workforce, and comparatively little of it. There's no reason to imagine economic reform and industrialization are even a possiblity in sub-saharan Africa. Knowing what we do about it's population.

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  94. @Priss Factor
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArSLNJNUEIM

    I didn't say Catholics and Evangelicals are primarily to blame. I said they didn't help any with their God-loves-every-sperm message.

    Of course, the main reason is the Negroes. They be crazy and wild and not-too-bright. And mighty hornery.

    Western progs did promote birth control in Africa, but it's hard to make Negroes follow instructions since they just don't have modern mind-set about womenfolks rights and stuff.
    Western progs' real damage came from all the aid and medicine and food that lowered infant mortality.

    On the other hand, Caths and Evangelicals have tended to spread the anti-abortion and even anti-contraceptive message all over the world.
    That's one thing you don't want to do with Negroes.

    I think our view on abortion should be racially based. Oppose abortion for white folks and offer free abortion for black folks.

    Suppose we argue that the higher being that governs the world wants such at least for now.
    Since white folks are not having each kids, the higher being wants no abortion for whites.
    But since Negroes be having too many kids who be acting like tards, the higher being recommends that Negroes be offered free abortion.

    White people having more kids and black people having fewer kids will be good for both peoples.

    If there were many more whites than blacks in the world, whites would do a better job of helping out to make things good for blacks.

    Actually, conservative forces of the Catholic Church and anti-abortion American Evangelicalism led the way in undermining birth control in Africa.

    I didn’t say Catholics and Evangelicals are primarily to blame. I said they didn’t help any with their God-loves-every-sperm message.

    OK. I take it there is some fundamental difference between having “led the way” and being “primarily to blame”. Who knew?

    In any case, to the extent that Christians believe or don’t believe that God loves every sperm, as you so asininely put it, they do so on principle. They don’t stop first to calculate how many fewer Africans there will be on this planet as a result. Like it or not, Christianity has not yet been subjugated to the dictates of your intense hatred of the Untermensch, but when they elect you pope, you can go ahead and try to work that in. Until then, try and find something you know something about before pontificating on it.

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  95. @Anonymous
    It just shows how useless they are if they even have to import 'chicken legs' from somewhere else, somewhere else that has cost factors orders of magnitude higher than they have.

    I’m sure there’s plenty of localized poultry production. The issue is more about variations in consumer demand by region. As I recall most of the “chitlins”, beef tripes, and chicken feet produced in the U.S. get exported abroad. Just as in the U.S. I see beef coming in from as far away as Brazil and Australia.

    But the point was that it dovetails with the trend of cheaper cereal commodities undercutting local producers in developing countries. Europeans want mostly white meat, and it’s impossible to produce legless birds, so the excess gets “dumped” on second-tier markets.

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  96. @fnn
    You don't care about the extermination of wildlife and the destruction of ecosystems?

    No one ever does, Sport, until it is too late.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venatio

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  97. @Anonymous
    It's been said before, but perhaps Islam is the right religion for African blacks since the enormous emphasis is.am puts on self-discipline, self-control and the tough penalties demanded of thieves, adulterers, criminals etc. Only with such an 'iron hand' ruling over them will African bkacks ever present the tiniest modicum of morality to the outside world.

    “It’s been said before, but perhaps Islam is the right religion for African blacks…”

    It’s been said before, you say? Apparently, idiocy has a long echo. I suppose Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab exemplify the order and tranquility that ensue whenever the ‘iron hand’ of Islam, as you put it, takes a whack at sub-Saharan Africa.

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  98. […] a general pattern, the U.N. has found, the completeness of the counts tends to be worse in the fastest growing countries. Thus, the harder the U.N. has looked at Africa in this decade, the more people and more new […]

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  99. […] a general pattern, the U.N. has found, the completeness of the counts tends to be worse in the fastest growing countries. Thus, the harder the U.N. has looked at Africa in this decade, the more people and more new babies […]

    Read More

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