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The Fundamental Constant of Sociology
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The Fundamental Constant of Sociology

With the perennial race-IQ controversy back in the news, due to The New York Times attempting to put the boot in on 90-year-old Nobelist James D. Watson from the left and Nassim Nicholas Taleb thundering on against IQ from the right, it’s worth calling attention to one of the most elegant statistical essayists of the 21st century, La Griffe du Lion.

La Griffe, the Zorro of statisticians, wields Occam’s razor with aplomb unique in recent decades. He is a thinker comparable in significance to Taleb, even though their approaches are 180 degrees opposite.

In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. Somethimg went wrong with the blockquote. Please delete this comment.

  2. Something went wrong with the blockquote in the post.

    Please delete this comment.

  3. In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin is RACIST and ILLEGAL HATE SPEECH.

  4. “In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    So far, this is the best soundbite from Steve for 2019. Right on the money. And as always, excellent noticing.

  5. Anon[168] • Disclaimer says:

    Ron still working on the WordPress glitches? Or was this a Steve glitch?

  6. Brilliant article, but one small academic quibble: a copula is a co-dependence function between random variables rather than a distribution function for a single random variable. It measures the probabilistic relationship between two or more random variables, rather than the univariate probability function of one random variable. It is correct that misapplication of the Gaussian copula did play a major role in the failure of mortgage trading desk risk models, see e.g., https://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/. Just a minor academic quibble.

  7. dearieme says:

    Yer link goes to the wrong article at Taki. Your own article is perhaps kinder to Taleb than his shrieking, hysterical, obnoxious, self-obsessed style warrants. But then he’s from the Near East, eh?

  8. BB753 says:

    Wronk link, Steve. It leads you to an unrelated article claiming masturbation is wrong for you.

  9. Anon[135] • Disclaimer says:

    The New York Times Amy Harmon New Years Day piece doesn’t distinguish between the question of whether there is a gap (and how big it is) and whether the gap is genetic or enviromental.

    (Editorial Aside: The Manichaean distinction between environment and genome is out of date, as described in two recent books, Robert Plomin’s Blueprint and Kevin Mitchell’s Innate, but I’ll continue as though it were still the received model.)

    I’ve always wondered, Who cares? Unless you take environmental to mean that some “cure” will be discovered in the near future, which can be applied and which will take retroactive effect on the whole black population, raising their IQ instantly, environmental and genetic are functionally the same, or as Charles Murray says, “intractable.” Black students and employees are just as cognitively lacking either way.

    Here’s Harmon from her first graf: “suggesting that black people are intrinsically less intelligent than whites.” (italics mine) I’ll take “intrinsically” to mean genetic. So is she saying that if Watson said blacks were less intelligent than whites, for some as yet undetermined reason, would that be O.K.? (Some of Watson’s quotes do admit doubt on causation.)

    None of Harman’s experts really directly address the issue. Here’s the carefully crafted statement from one of them, undoubtely via email to avoid “misquotes”:

    In response to questions from The Times, Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said that most experts on intelligence “consider any black-white differences in I.Q. testing to arise primarily from environmental, not genetic, differences.”

    I’m sure Collins (whose genetics and psychometric qualifications are unstated) was thrilled to receive Harmon’s inquiry. He must have thought, Can I ignore it?, but no, she might reveal that in the article, and people would wonder what he’s hiding. His response above says “most experts”: how does he know this, Harmon might have asked, in a followup? His gut feeling? Not the Rindermann paper, for sure. Then he says “any differences in IQ testing”: What’s going on here? IQ testing, meaning the tests are flawed, but IQ as a concept is OK, a little hedge? “Any differences” acknowledges that there may be differences, an admission that Harmon lets pass. “Primarily from environment” means 51 percent or more from environment, 49 percent or less genetic, right?, but again Harmon lets it pass.

    Dr. Collins said he was unaware of any credible research on which Dr. Watson’s “profoundly unfortunate’’ statement would be based.

    This is devoid of meaning. What was the specific Watson statement he is referencing? How is “credible” measured? Is he in a posiiton to be aware of what the research say? Is it his field? His job title paints him as a science bureaucrat.

    “It is disappointing that someone who made such groundbreaking contributions to science,’’ Dr. Collins added, “is perpetuating such scientifically unsupported and hurtful beliefs.’’

    The blanket CYA statement, similar to statements in Reich, Plomin, and Mitchell, the one you can always point to when they come after you. And “hurtful” is irrelevant to whether it’s true. Finally, if he’s unaware of the research, how is he judging the degree of scientific support?

    • Agree: Hail
  10. The constant I see here is 2. Your post got doubled. I’ll get back to your 2011 article in a bit, as I’m sure it’ll be a good read, but what is your determination of this constant?

    From my calculations, I think the fundamental constant of Sociology is 3.5. That is the average grade on a 0 -4 scale for anyone taking a Sociology class, in any university, no matter what the IQ of the student. That’s not intuitive, Steve, and it’s amazing how that works out!

    • Replies: @JimB
  11. Actually, I think the reason people get so emotionally worked up about group differences in IQ is that it cuts through the blame game to which they are addicted. Much of the differences in outcomes may be due neither to the evil spells of White Racism or Culture of Poverty but simply to the fact that people are different. Why would you expect them to come out the same?

    • Replies: @Anon
  12. Taleb is scornful of the assumptions that IQ tests can be trustworthy at the right tails—is a person who scores 160 (99.99th percentile) more likely to succeed in a moneymaking career than a person who scores 145 (99.7th percentile)?

    Long before Taleb entered the discussion, this point had been debated and dismissed by the smart set who know the value of IQ.

    Here, for example, is Steve Hsu: Success, Ability, and All That

    I came across this nice discussion at LessWrong which is similar to my old post Success vs Ability. The illustration below shows why even a strong predictor of outcome is seldom able to pick out the very top performer: e.g., taller people are on average better at basketball, but the best player in the world is not the tallest; smarter people are on average better at making money, but the richest person in the world is not the smartest, etc.

    This seems like a trivial point (as are most things, when explained clearly), however, it still eludes the vast majority.

    What Taleb says just isn’t very interesting. (And if you look more closely at IQ distribution, one can find similar untrustworthy results on the left side of the curve. See Jensen on racial differences at that end, for example.)

    But I also seem to remember that Hsu mentions somewhere on his blog that IQ distribution still matters on the high end in the world of physics.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
  13. Spangel says:

    Iq measures intelligence, which in normal vocabulary entails rational capacity, a core human trait. If man is the rational animal, one could understand a perspective where greater rational capacity equals greater humanness. And the race iq debate also comes with the debate over whether black criminality is basically an inborn moral deficiency coming from lack of impulse control.

    There is the issue of who is to blame. But there is also the issue of how one side of the iq debate is probably pretty devastating for most blacks to accept, truth be damned. And there is an issue for others who struggle with reconciling a viewpoint that blacks can be equally respected if they have markedly less intelligence and less impulse control. People feel obligated to respect their fellow man as a potential equal, which conflicts with what just might be the scientific truth.

    After what I learned last year in the bestselling books on population genetics, it strikes me that the truth might be even less flattering than I had thought.

    • Replies: @lavoisier
  14. Steve — you repeated the text. Time to clean it up.

  15. Carol says:

    The link to the original article doesn’t work.

  16. TGGP says: • Website

    Your Takimag link actually goes to an article by another author. You also seem to have duplicated your original text here. I believe you meant to link to https://www.takimag.com/article/the-fundamental-constant-of-sociology/

  17. Wrong link, Steve. Here’s the correct one:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/the-fundamental-constant-of-sociology/

    Also, a minor correction: someone who scored 145 points on an IQ test would be at the top 0.135%, so at the 99.865th percentile. Someone who scored 160 would be at the top 0.0032%, so at the 99.9968th percentile. (Figures rounded, assuming an average IQ score of 100 points and standard deviation of 15 points)

    • Agree: Luke Lea
  18. neutral says:

    Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?

    People blame current sub Saharan African dysfunction on colonialism, and pre colonial dysfunction because of not have the Eurasian East-West land link (Jared Diamonds theory). But will they still blame whites in the future when whites no longer exist (which is a very likely future), how will this theory resonate with Indians, East Asians or Mexicans?

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Corvinus
  19. GB says:

    So, if Taleb and La Griffe have opposite approaches, which one is right?

    As the eminent statistician George Box once said, “All models are wrong. Some are useful.”

  20. Even if whites have a higher average IQ, that doesn’t really mean that whites aren’t responsible for the dysfunction of blacks; or at least in America.

    But it certainly means that they musy be responsible for the solutions.

  21. Whites are to blame for black dysfunction. After all, we brought them out of Africa to societies where too many can’t function at median and above levels.

  22. Stick says:

    Two things to consider when dealing with different tribes; one is mean IQ, and the other is Operating System. Clearly West Europeans and East Asians have similar mean IQs but they function on two very different cultural operating systems. It is this operating system difference that defines Asian versus European. More focus on operating system differences between alternative civilizations should be the focus of discussion since there is not much anyone can do about mean IQ other than breed with really smart chicks (and that’s no fun).

    • Replies: @gcochran
    , @sensitive
  23. Anon[168] • Disclaimer says:

    Not to rub it in, but the constant is 1.1 SD, 16.5 IQ points, not 15, as stated in the Taki article. The 15 number is Murray’s number from The Bell Curve.

  24. From the article.

    “Taleb is scornful of the assumptions that IQ tests can be trustworthy at the right tails—is a person who scores 160 (99.99th percentile) more likely to succeed in a moneymaking career than a person who scores 145 (99.7th percentile)?”

    Is the measure of accuracy of IQ tests at the right tail its ability to predict success in a moneymaking career?

    joe

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @ben tillman
  25. I’ll put this as offensively as possible: Have engineer types always been lacking in manhood?

    I doubt any of the minds who really built Silicon Valley, and certainly the aerospace industry, believed in any of the silliness pushed by the Left today (at least on race and sex). But boy, they all surrendered to it, and continue to surrender to this day. These boys are good at keeping their heads down and not causing trouble. It’s embarrassing to watch.

    So, if they are unable to hold territory, or do any of the things that masculinity provides for in the social sphere, I’m guessing these people are hothouse flowers that need others to be the man for them.

    • Agree: Stan d Mute
    • Replies: @Tanturn
    , @Joe Stalin
  26. KL says:

    [J]udging from the racial composition of the NBA, a school that is 75% white and 25% black is likely to have four black starters and one white.

    Or if in 2000, 80 of the fastest sprinters in the world were black and 14 were white, what are the odds that a random white can outrun a random black? A not-bad 28%.

    Your calculations seem off. Big differences in tail odds correspond to small average differences between populations. If the mean of one population is one standard deviation faster than another population, then a random “fast” person will outrun a random “slow” person only 69% of the time.

  27. Hodag says:

    The link goes to an anti-porn diatribe. I was almost done when I realized that the writing does not resemble something our host would discuss.

    • Replies: @rufus
  28. The title of this post reminds me of Joe Sobran’s definition of a bigot: one who practices sociology without a license.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  29. anon[393] • Disclaimer says:

    la griffe yes there was a time
    But i would like to see say UNZ (and others mostly but not all jews) who have claimed jewish control of 50% of wealth and power can not be accounted for by higher IQ, engage with la griffes assertion that it can be. La Griffe may have taken certain things at face value that others including Vox and Unz have dived deeper into. its in a lot of way THE Question, The epeople europeans, that have for 3000 years over and over again created hegemonic civilizations are currently ruled by jews and this has happened before and to the extent we are aware of it we seem or at least the best of us seem to think maybe its ok yet theres a lot of evidence that its not ok its morbid but the evidence is presented by those we think of as the worst of us, so to finally see some jews actually are becoming nazis is interesting, both because it would seem to legitimize the question and give hope that it could be answered and maybe because it gives hope that the final solution might not need to be another round of expulsions but maybe finally jews are becoming white. Jews genetically are about as white as say greeks thats never been the problem whiteness varies from iceland to persians, for practicality geopolitical sake we currently draw the line at the bosphorus and armenia? while its probably not coincidental the albanians have the lowest euro IQ and are furthest south theres some notable examples to the contrary and this idea that the clearly white faces and languages on mesopotamian and greek pottery implies the white range is wider than we currently imagine we too wuz kangs- at least it looks that way genetics will eventually say for sure.. The point is its not jew non whiteness that’s the issue, its not even their ethnic cohesion or ethnic asabiaya operating within our nations although that is a minor problem. Its the hostile and toxic strategies they employ to further their ambitions, tactics that tend to utterly devastate our civilizations ,destroy our cultures and genocide our people. many of us right thinking if conservative types have assumed it was defensive a result of ww2 but of course that was because we came of age just after that war and its propaganda written by jews and their accomplices and because being elites ourselves we knew and liked jews, so we wrote off their communism etc to hitler. But its become clear over the past decades that it’s more likely hitler was reacting to what we are now reacting to in weimerica a once great civilization on the verge of collapse almost entirely because of jews, worse its no longer possible to believe this isnt done on purpose and out of malice oh sure many jews are not evilly trying to destroy whitey but enough of their leadership cleary is enough that the fact the majority of elite jews are not sounding the alarm about the evil is proof they are intending it.
    If we are to transition out of this without another holycause we need jews themselves to deconstruct the evil jews have done and do it soon and radically other wise the impending collapse will play out unscripted and whites will like any animal save themselves when they finally face that this is a genocide and when they survey the damage and cost that will cost they are naturally going to investigate the causes and its simply going to be impossible to any longer control the narrative. the 150 years of jew mischief in white nations is as clear as day and only obscured by the most massive of disinformation campaigns ever undertaken.
    Good jews need to step up like some already have and take out the evil of jew engineered leftism multiculturalism feminism socialism fiat banking debtor capitalism and globalism etc

  30. “In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    Indeed!

    As always, iSteve cutting to the chase.

  31. Arclight says:

    Progressives are all in on the idea that environment/culture is 100% of the cause of any disparities we see – they are firm believers in blank slate theology. Accordingly, their solutions are always geared towards shaping our culture in ways that squelch those that are unfairly advantaged and put a foot on the scale for the oppressed. To abandon this core belief would mean chucking their most effective rhetorical tactics for keeping together the coalition of the fringes they have assembled and a total rethink of their prescriptions for society in terms of social policy.

    Like all religious zealots, anything that challenges the faith must be dismissed as propaganda intended to bring down the temple.

    • Replies: @lhtness
  32. rufus says:
    @Hodag

    Ya, hes resolute in his pro porn stance.

  33. Travis says:

    Leftists were the original promoters of eugenics and advocated birth control and abortion to reduce the number of low dysgenic births. They change their arguments with the times. Democrats were for strong border controls and opposed open borders until quite recently. The left already are strong proponents of aborting babies with any genetic disease, so they are closer the the eugenic mindset than the typical conservative American.

    The main reason the left remains opposed to IQ research , it may prove their enemies have been correct. They have been calling people like Murray, Sailer, Watson racist for years. It is one of the tools they have to destroy people. They do not want to give up this weapon, which can destroy careers and open doors to better careers and job opportunities for leftists. They can force the NY times to fire writers, force schools to fire professors, force colleges to ban speech and all this goes away if they acknowledge IQ differences among the races.

    When the left eventually recognizes the IQ differences between races they will not use this knowledge to blame blacks for their shortcomings , but use it to justify even more government spending to even the playing field. The left would actually seek to impose a eugenics policy like China did, and limit each women to one or two births. They may well allow women to use “free genetically screened sperm” to ensure their offspring have a better polygenetic score. I suspect it will be the leftists who begin advocating for the abortion of babies with lower polygenetic scores in the next decade.

    • Replies: @dr kill
    , @ben tillman
  34. Steve Sailer has cornered the anti-White media varmints and anti-White Democrat Party politicians for riling up Black people in an attempt to use Blacks as a demographic weapon to smash regular White Core Americans.

    President Trump has rightly called the media the enemy of the American people.

    I say the anti-White corporate media must be destroyed in order to advance and protect the interests of the European Christian ancestral core of the United States of America.

    Steve Sailer said this in 2014:

    The release of security camera video footage today of the late Michael Brown robbing a Ferguson convenience store and roughing up a clerk who is half his size about ten minutes before he was killed by a policeman reveals that that Meaning of Ferguson is that the national media have embarrassed themselves yet again by grabbing some local police blotter incident and huffing and puffing it up into another narrative of America’s History of White Violence Against Black Bodies.

    When the media grabs hold of a Ferguson, Trayvon, Duke Lacrosse, Jena, or Tawana Brawley story they are not presenting it as an unusual Man Bites Dog story, but as a typical Another Rabid White Dog Bites Innocent Black Child story. In a country of 300 million, you’d think they’d be able to at least come up with stories that don’t self-destruct like this under skeptical scrutiny, but it doesn’t seem to work that way.

    Tweet from 2014:

  35. Anon[426] • Disclaimer says:

    So, if Taleb and La Griffe have opposite approaches, which one is right?
    Well, reality is complicated, so they can both be highly useful.

    Taleb: “Sailer is diplomatic.”

    Like Tom Hagen. Not a wartime consiglieri.

    Taleb is like Frank Pantangeli.

  36. Fun fact about Gaussians:

    Take a coin and flip it. If heads, add one. If tails, subtract one.

    Do this once, and you have a 1/2 probability of being +1, and a 1/2 probability of being -1. Graph this. Two bars, same height.

    Do it twice, and you have a 1/4 probability of being -2, a 1/2 probability of being zero, and a 1/4 probability of being 2. Graph this. Three bars, middle one tallest. A triangle.

    Do it thrice, and it will be 1/8 probability of -3, 3/8 probability of -1, 3/8 probability of 1, 1/8 probability of +3. Graph this. Four bars. Trapezoidal.

    Do it infinity times, and you have infinity bars, in the shape of a Gaussian. That is how the Gaussian curve is derived, this sort of thought experiment. While the curve is fundamentally a purely mathematical concept, like pi or e it shows up everywhere in the natural world.

    The fact that human height, human intelligence, human lifespan seem to be Gaussian curves suggest that these traits are the result of lots of genes exerting very small effects. Each gene is essentially a coin flip that changes you slightly. Without sequencing a single genome you can deduce that intelligence is highly polygenetic.

    Lots of genetic traits do not follow Gaussians. For example, weight among gorillas has two separate peaks, centered at the male and female averages. A gorilla of average gorilla weight could either be a really big female or a really small male. For gorillas weight is not determined by a bunch of single, individually insignificant coin flips, but one big important coin flip (sex chromosomes) and a bunch of small coin flips.

  37. As for why one highly skilled golfer wins so many more tournaments than another, I don’t have the technical jargon for putting this into words but it boils down to frequency of tournaments. Golf is an artificial construct. Tournaments occur at much greater frequency than mere random events. So any minor differences in performance become amplified, resulting in the L shaped curve you, Steve, described.

    And so it is with all the other situations in which L shaped curves and strange extreme at the ends behavior occurs. Investing in stocks, derivatives, selling bundled loans etc. are extreme Game type situations. They aren’t “natural occurrences”. They are Arenas in which extreme people engage in extreme behavior which has as its goal only one desirable end. Why would anyone expect what happens there to conform to Gaussian distributions which rule random distribution of traits? Unless they were taken in by the theory behind Mandelbrot Sets in which the finer grain pattern is a replica of the macro pattern?

    Because of the extreme distortion introduced by the artificial conditions inherent in the Arena, if we want a pretty, symmetrical picture, we would have to apply a non linear adjusting factor to the scales themselves.

  38. I thought Taleb was not just questioning the right tail but pretty much everything right of the left tail.

  39. Alfa158 says:

    I looked at the links to Taleb’s works and, speaking of IQ, I must be getting stupider as I get older, because I could have sworn that he actually used the argument that IQ is an invalid measure because it’s advocates fail to count how many people with genius level IQs are employed in menial jobs:

    “But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs.”

    The only person with an IQ of 150 doing a menial job that I am aware of is Matt Damon, who used to work as a janitor at MIT.

    Taleb seems to be proving mathematically that elevation above sea level is a bogus measurement. The elevation measurements taken in mountain ranges are very noisy and the elevations of the Tibetan plateau fall with the range of elevation measurements of mountain ranges. Elevation measurements are only valid at the other end because the range of elevations at sea coasts is much smaller. Therefore we can conclude that elevation above sea level is not a useful geographic parameter.

    Does Taleb think intelligence doesn’t exist, or that it does but it can’t be measured, or it can be measured but we haven’t figured out how to do it yet? Can somebody who understands this field better help me out here and provide a summary of what he is saying?

  40. People who think Taleb’s attitude is refreshing and unique have never been around status-obsessed, hairy-armed, gold-chain-wearing, racially-insecure Lebanese. At their childhood home, you’ll find a worn out VHS copy of The Godfather. Lebanon will never rise above being a sort of Miami-on-the-Med. It’s 82 IQ is the same as Zimbabwe.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
    , @Pheasant
  41. The left today do not even acknowledge any differences in IQ between the races. Thus the issue today is no longer a question of what causes the observed differences in IQ between blacks and whites, since the left insists there are no differences in IQ.

    In the past there were plenty of liberals who stated the difference in IQ was due to the environment , but today they deny any differences in IQ exist, thus avoiding the question of what causes the difference. We have a long way to go to get the left to even accept What we have observed for 300 years, whites are smarter than blacks. This was common knowledge until quite recently. Today acknowledging IQ levels are lower for blacks will get you fired and blacklisted. noticing that men enjoy programming more than females will get you fired from Google and Harvard.

    • Replies: @Travis
    , @gregor
    , @Known Fact
  42. DCThrowback says: • Website

    I thought the anti-pr0n piece was p good! No FAP (or reduced FAP) is good advice for our young men.

    • Agree: CJ
    • Replies: @L Woods
  43. Steve -EDIT! Please… can’t tell what you mean with the copy and paste errors here

  44. Polynices says:

    Taleb is really embarrassing himself with the ranting against IQ, except for the part where he is immune to embarrassment. He’s resorted to looking up the salaries of professors who study IQ and making fun of them for not being rich, claiming they’re resentful. And he retweets obvious dimwits who happen to agree with him. He makes a lot of sense in a lot of areas but everything he says on this topic is just sad.

  45. DaKine says:

    Steve,
    You might enjoy this debate on “segregation”:

    https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-soho-forum-debate-richard-rothstein-vs-howard-husock-tickets-44843205234?aff=ehomecard&mc_cid=f88851f856&mc_eid=a56e37d833

    Yes it is put on by a libertarian, but they are well done.

    Keep up the good work.

  46. @anon

    Punctuation, for God’s sake.

    • Replies: @Anon
  47. @BB753

    Is it? I thought masturbation was the basis of sociological understanding?

    • LOL: BB753
  48. Anonymous[536] • Disclaimer says:

    Don’t forget Steve, the black members of the Atlanta Hawks wouldn’t pass the ball to Pete Maravich.

  49. @SimpleSong

    Lots of genetic traits do not follow Gaussians. For example, weight among gorillas has two separate peaks, centered at the male and female averages. A gorilla of average gorilla weight could either be a really big female or a really small male. For gorillas weight is not determined by a bunch of single, individually insignificant coin flips, but one big important coin flip (sex chromosomes) and a bunch of small coin flips.

    Human weight (and height, and other quantitative variables) distributions also have separate peaks for men and women. Does that make human weight and height distributions not Gaussian distributions?

    • Replies: @SimpleSong
  50. L Woods says:
    @DCThrowback

    No thanks. More thirst = more power to women. It’s more than bad enough already.

  51. kihowi says:

    It’s a proxy for the question whether white people are allowed to care about themselves.

    If you want to care about yourself, you have to be racially nationalistic.
    The be racially nationalistic you have to believe that your race is special.
    The believe that your race is special you have to believe that the rest are less special.
    To believe that they’re less special you have to have reasons to consider them inferior.
    Lower IQ would be one of those reasons.

    This sounds nasty, but fundamentally, there can be no taking care of yourself without a belief that you deserve it more than others, who deserve it less. Now that can take the shape of a slight standoffishness to strangers, or a holocaust. But some measure of it there has to be.

    Liberals, fundamentally, understand that. That’s why they are so allergic to any idea that would make white people feel special. That’s also why so many of them deal, successfully, with life by feeling superior and hating others: they know that it works!

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    , @Stan d Mute
  52. songbird says:

    I do wonder about the longterm trends regarding African immigration. Is a 15 spread a hard limit, with increasing immigration from Africa, or can it actually fall? And what would be the consequences of that?

  53. @BB753

    Wronk link, Steve. It leads you to an unrelated article claiming masturbation is wrong for you.

    That all depends..

    I guess you never saw the underground film “Sailor Steve Takes on the Seamen from the Fifth Fleet”?

    A guy’s gotta pay for his education somehow amiright?

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Reg Cæsar
  54. La Griffe mentions that the death penalty can’t apply in the US to people with below 70 IQ (“mental retardation”).

    If the figures LG quotes in his Smart Fraction essay are correct, the average citizen of Nigeria (67), Zimbabwe (66), Guinea (66), Congo (65 – is that DRC or the other one?), Sierra Leone (64), Ethiopia (63), and Equatorial Guinea (59) can arrive in the US and do what they will without fear of the death penalty.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkins_v._Virginia

    In the ruling it was stated that, unlike other provisions of the Constitution, the Eighth Amendment should be interpreted in light of the “evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a mature society.” …The Court then described how a national consensus that the mentally retarded should not be executed had emerged.

    Stevens, joined by O’Connor, Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, Breyer.

    Atkins was clever enough to know that it’s best to take your victim somewhere isolated to kill him.

  55. @Tiny Duck.

    Trolling again are we, diminutive drake?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  56. @Anon

    “Is he in a position to be aware of what the research say? Is it his field? His job title paints him as a science bureaucrat.”

    Collins started in Chemistry, switched to Biochemistry, then Medicine, then genetics. He succeeded Watson at the National Human Genome Research Institute and oversaw the Human Genome Project, so I guess he knows his genetics.

    He’s probably thinking he’s got a great job and lots of power that he can use for good, why should he throw it all away with one comment? Not every scientist is a Watson or a Galileo.

    I just hope he feels a little guilt. He should do.

  57. @gabriel alberton

    They are Gaussian within the subset of men and women. For humans as a whole, they are not Gaussian if there are two separate peaks. Obviously as the dimorphism decreases you go from two separate peaks to a peak with a flat spot on top to a true Gaussian as the dimorphism disappears. You can still use concepts like standard deviation, percentile, etc., as those are independent of the distribution type but the link between those two (Z scores, for example) is distribution dependent. So you have to use, for example, Z scores for a true Gaussian, but need to use something different for different distributions. Such as t-scores. Or for something that can’t be modeled simply you just have to use a lookup table to link standard deviations and percentile.

  58. JimDandy says:

    “In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    That’s really it in a nutshell, isn’t it? Perhaps we can cut through the Gordian knot here by pointing out that whites are not at all to blame for black dysfunction. But it’s actually not that simple is it? Black dysfunction is not caused by what we usually think of as white racism, not even a little bit. But the calculating, machiavellian-racists in the modern Democrat party have certainly done their part to mess up black lives, and the condescending racism of NPR-type Progressives has also acted as a great enabler–and trigger–for black dysfunction. So, the answer is that low IQs and racist white liberals have both played their part. The low-IQs helped blacks to see these white destroyers as allies. Nature and nurture, walking hand in hand toward the abyss.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  59. Jack D says:
    @Anon

    Unless you take environmental to mean that some “cure” will be discovered in the near future, which can be applied and which will take retroactive effect on the whole black population, raising their IQ instantly, environmental and genetic are functionally the same,

    Not really. Our school system has devoted billions, if not trillions, on “closing the gap”. Obviously gap closing cannot be done retroactively but, like the polio vaccine, if the cure could be applied prospectively to all black children from now on, no more black children would be crippled by the disease of low IQ and in a few generations all of the existing sufferers will have died off. Finding the cure for black stupidity would be a really, really big thing, much bigger than the polio vaccine. It would totally change the future destiny of our country. Our entire society has tied itself up in knots in order to deal with the problem of low black IQ and the resulting criminality.

    Of course the genetic component (say 49%) will never be cured, at least not until there are advancements in genetic engineering far beyond current technology. Sickle cell anemia is a single gene disorder and a cure can be expected within a few short years in the form of a gene repair on the embryo. And once the gene is “patched” it is a permanent repair, not just for the child that is born but for all of his future descendants. But, no one has found a single gene for stupidity and it is likely that one does not exist. Any genetic cure is probably decades away if ever.

    But, the environmental component (51%, supposedly) should, theoretically be highly amenable to a fix. And yet again, no one has been able to do much with that either, again despite spending billions over the last 50 years. Increasingly early interventions have been tried but seem to have little effect. Taking the kid away from his ghetto momma and placing him with a nice white couple is probably the most effective “cure” (although not without undesirable side effects) but is not politically palatable at all and nothing short of that seems to work.

  60. Tanturn says:
    @RichardTaylor

    Have the masculine men in the military opposed the poz?

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
  61. Jack D says:
    @Anon

    Regarding Collins, I don’t think that there was any love lost between him and Watson anyway. In any case, Collins probably figures that adding to the denunciations against Watson won’t make Watson’s situation any worse – he is already beyond all possible redemption, especially given his advanced age.

    But, issuing such denunciations (despite his own lack of credentials or knowledge in this specific field) puts Collins on the side of the “good people” and immunizes him (to some extent) if he should accidentally stray over the line slightly in the future (or maybe if someone uncovers some “questionable” remark he may have made in the past). Collins reasons that Watson (who is no friend of his anyway) has already been mortally wounded so casting him to the wolves doesn’t change the ultimate outcome for him and maybe the wolves will be satisfied with that meal at least for a little while and won’t come after Collins quite yet. This is a miserable calculus but fear does strange things to people – you can only compare the terror that prominent people must feel now to the situation in Stalinist Russia.

    All that being said, my admiration for Collins has now gone down many notches – kicking a man when he is down is a sign of low character. All he needed to do was keep his mouth shut. I hope when Collins’s time comes his “friends” have his back as much as he had Watson’s.

  62. From Steve’s article:

    Interestingly, the normal probability distribution wasn’t discovered until long after Newton’s lifetime.

    Newton died in 1727. I’ve read that de Moivre discovered the normal distribution (as an approximation to the binomial distribution for p=1/2), and when I checked found that he supposedly did that in 1733, publishing it in 1738.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_de_Moivre

    In the later editions [1738 and 1756] of his book, de Moivre included his unpublished result of 1733, which is the first statement of an approximation to the binomial distribution in terms of what we now call the normal or Gaussian function.

    However, some say that should not quite count as discovering the normal distribution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Development

    Some authors[61][62] attribute the credit for the discovery of the normal distribution to de Moivre, who in 1738[nb 2] published in the second edition of his “The Doctrine of Chances” the study of the coefficients in the binomial expansion of (a + b)n. De Moivre proved that the middle term in this expansion has the approximate magnitude of 2 / 2 π n {\displaystyle 2/{\sqrt {2\pi n}}} 2/{\sqrt {2\pi n}}, and that “If m or ½n be a Quantity infinitely great, then the Logarithm of the Ratio, which a Term distant from the middle by the Interval ℓ, has to the middle Term, is − 2 ℓ ℓ n {\displaystyle -{\frac {2\ell \ell }{n}}} -{\frac {2\ell \ell }{n}}.”[63] Although this theorem can be interpreted as the first obscure expression for the normal probability law, Stigler points out that de Moivre himself did not interpret his results as anything more than the approximate rule for the binomial coefficients, and in particular de Moivre lacked the concept of the probability density function.[64]

  63. @RichardTaylor

    I remember seeing a graphic decades ago in a book which had an illustrated chart of masculinity vs. profession. It placed engineers in amongst the most masculine of occupations and policeman among the lower ones.

    And wasn’t there a NSF study which stated that engineers were basically smart boys from the lower classes?

    Is Neal Armstrong* lacking in masculinity? Yassir Arafat? Benjamin Netanyahu? The EE that used to date Harold Brown’s sister used to hunt bears. I remember a television program about the assassins of Egypt’s Sadat and how a great many of them were techie types. Engineer Jean Bastien-Thiry, designer of the SS.11 wired guided missile, was executed for trying to kill Charles de Gaulle.

    [*] – “I was fortunate in many respects [in my career]—not through any talent on my part—but I got to go all the way through training with Neil Armstrong, and then through an 11-month cruise in Korea with VF-51 with him,” said Bob Kaps, who spoke to Air & Space shortly before he died last December. “If you met him, he was just like the guy next door. After the decommissioning of VF-51 in 1995, we began having a reunion every two years. I ended up staying in the next room with him at the hotel. He had a rental car, and he chauffeured me around for two days. I’ll always cherish that memory, because I told his widow that he was one of the very few people I’ve known in my life who had no downside. All the famous men and kings throughout history had a dark side. Neil Armstrong was everyone’s friend.”

    https://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/panthers-at-sea-69666178/

  64. Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?

    Whites, for calling it “dysfunction”.

    As Michael Levin explained, there is nothing dysfunctional about black behavior. It’s exactly what you’d expect of such a population let loose in a Western society. Black leaders support gun prohibitions and Democratic dependency schemes because they know exactly what their constituency is like.

    Yes, blacks were better behaved decades ago. But we put more straits on their jackets at the time. Now, whites are enablers.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Corvinus
  65. Actually, wasn’t Florence Nightingale among the first to tie data to real-life lives and deaths? Who really cares if the star charts have an occasional blip in them.

    If she wasn’t the mother of statistics, she was the midwife, or wet nurse.

  66. What is the Fundamental Constant of Scientology?

  67. MarkinLA says:
    @kihowi

    1. If you want to care about yourself, you have to be racially nationalistic.
    2. The be racially nationalistic you have to believe that your race is special.
    3. The believe that your race is special you have to believe that the rest are less special.
    4. To believe that they’re less special you have to have reasons to consider them inferior.
    5. Lower IQ would be one of those reasons.

    3 is not necessarily true. Both can be special in their own way. Viking society placed a premium on physical strength because hand to hand combat was the highest endeavor. Obviously, someone with smarts and leadership qualities might eventually be the king over the strongest man but I doubt that was as common.

    Therefore, none 4 and 5 necessarily apply either.

  68. utu says:
    @SimpleSong

    While the curve is fundamentally a purely mathematical concept, like pi or e it shows up everywhere in the natural world.

    The IQ distribution is approximately Gaussian by design not because there is some hidden law of nature. The constructors of the IQ scale who designed it and built it wanted it to be Gaussian. Is IQ a social construct?

    • Replies: @Calvin X Hobbes
  69. Tanturn says:
    @BB753

    I read about half the article before it hit me that Steve can’t be that dumb.

    • Replies: @BB753
  70. @Steve from Detroit

    Yo homie Steve, my brother from another mother (or maybe the same mother if you were also a bastard dumped by a boomer whore in an orphanage in the Boston Edison ‘hood) you misspelled “Detriot” in your handle. An alternative is “Destroyit” but that one isn’t quite as clear to non-natives. Us 313 kids need to be consistent you feel me?

  71. @Reg Cæsar

    What is the Fundamental Constant of Scientology?

    http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/city.htm

    The fundamental law of sociology is a summary of hundreds of observations. It asserts that:

    On large-scale tests of reasoning ability, the observed mean difference between non-Hispanic whites and African Americans is 1.1, plus-or-minus 0.2, standard deviation.

    The observation is so unerringly reproducible, it justly earns the appellation, law. Appropriately, we call 1.1 SD the fundamental constant of sociology.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  72. JimB says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    From my calculations, I think the fundamental constant of Sociology is 3.5.

    That would explain why Sociology is the major of last resort for poorly performing undergraduates. Michelle Obama graduated cum laude in sociology from Princeton, putting her in the lower half of her graduating class.

  73. I am not sure if Taleb describes it this way, but it seems to me that his dichotomy between Medocristan and Extremistan is describing the difference between two different systems:
    (a) a Gaussian system in which the output is determined by the combination of numerous independent random variables; and
    (b) a Pareto system in which a change in one variable causes more change in the same direction — i.e., where feedback effects dominate.

    In the first system the extremes in inputs tend to cancel out and you get a nice, normal Bell Curve of outputs. In the second system, a tipping point is reached and the output feeds off its own change and accelerates to an extreme. So you get a Pareto hockey stick curve.

    In the real world complex systems (markets, ecosystems, etc.) may fluctuate between the two models, or they may involve a partial overlap that occurs at different times and conditions.

    For example, (as Steve describes) mortgage defaults are probably Gaussian 99% of the time. But a speculative bubble (and bust) in the underlying assets will push them (temporarily) into a Pareto feedback loop.

    As a layperson I may have it wrong. But I really appreciate Steve’s delving into these issues in an accessible way.

    • Replies: @megabar
  74. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Yoji, unfortunately neither blacks nor their protectors on the left, will admit to any dysfunction in black society, as we see it, experience it, in the USA.

  75. Dan Kurt says:
    @anon

    Mein Gott man, run, no speed dial, and obtain Grammarlye® and an editor (girlfriend or wife) to uncover your message.

    Dan Kurt

    • Replies: @Moses
  76. @neutral

    neutral, if there were no whites in America, would the country still exist as it does now? Who would advocate for black Americans? Hispanics? Asians? I don’t think so.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  77. Lurker says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?

    More? Surely whites are entirely to blame?

  78. @Reg Cæsar

    Reg, Bingo. You could have stopped after your first sentence.

  79. @Buffalo Joe

    Interesting alternate history idea. If the Chinese had explored eastward across the Pacific and settled the Americas, it seems fair to say that the Americas would look a lot like China.

    There would probably not be a lot of Blacks here for the Chinese to deal with. That’s not how they typically do things. I bet they would have staffed the plantations, if they had them, from their own peasant population.

    But the Chinese, for whatever reason, never ventured out across the seas to conquer other lands — they could easily have reached Australia. What would have had to change in their own culture for that to happen?

  80. @TelfoedJohn

    People who think Taleb’s attitude is refreshing and unique have never been around status-obsessed, hairy-armed, gold-chain-wearing, racially-insecure Lebanese.

    One quibble. I think you are being too specific with “Lebanese” – us Detrioters know them as Chaldeans, Greeks, sand-negroes, towelheads, and just plain Aye-rabs. It doesn’t really matter whether they’re Christian or Muslim, from Syria or Greece, they’re of a definite type and we have more of them than anybody else in our hemisphere (lucky us, yay!). There’s no substantive difference between Alex Manoogian (Armenian) and Matty Maroun (Lebanese). They’re loud, vulgar, gaudy, annoying, incredibly insecure, etc, but compared to our negroes we just love ‘em to death. And they do make the best coney dogs anywhere..

    • Replies: @Anon
  81. J.Ross says: • Website

    Francisco Franco is still dead and Ruth Bader Ginsberg is still home.

  82. “January 9, 201”

    I, too, date our current calendar from the 1818 Venusian occlusion of Jupiter.

  83. @utu

    The IQ distribution is approximately Gaussian by design not because there is some hidden law of nature. The constructors of the IQ scale who designed it and built it wanted it to be Gaussian.

    For any continuous random variable, you can do a monotone re-scaling so that it’s normal in the new scale.

    But, if you re-scale test scores for one population to make them normal, it does not follow mathematically that scores for a different population with that same re-scaling will also be normal.

    For IQ, different populations are generally all approximately normal on the same scale. That is kind of a “law of nature”.

    • Replies: @utu
  84. @kihowi

    The be racially nationalistic you have to believe that your race is special.
    The believe that your race is special you have to believe that the rest are less special.
    To believe that they’re less special you have to have reasons to consider them inferior.

    Untrue and inflammatory. I love my kids much more than your kids. I love my wife much more than your wife. Inferior/superior has nothing to do with it. I may readily acknowledge that your kids are smarter and your wife hotter than mine. Extend the same to our sub-species, tribe, race, or whatever you choose to call it. I love mine most. I don’t hate any others nor do I necessarily think they’re inferior or superior beyond some specific attributes. I am much less fond of negroes (shock that will be to all who know me), but do I think them inferior? In many ways I find them superior and definitely want them to have happy fulfilling lives – just not near me or to the detriment of those I love most, members of my own tribe. Where our interests clash is invariably where we are artificially forced together and almost invariably I will choose my tribe’s side in any conflict.

    We are simply pack animals. Does the wolf see members of a different pack inferior? Does the lion see another from a different pride inferior? An orca see members of a different pod inferior? Or just different, an outsider, an interloper?

  85. Anon[384] • Disclaimer says:
    @Michael Soeren

    Actually, I think the reason people get so emotionally worked up about group differences in IQ is that it cuts through the blame game to which they are addicted.

    Yes, but it’s mainly about blacks and no one else.

    Seriously, if James Watson said he thinks brown Bolivian peasants may be less intelligent than Arabs, would anyone have really cared?

    Blacks are sacred objects. ‘Good whites’ think, “we oppressed those noble, magical, and awesome blacks, and we justified our power over them on their inferiority.” Therefore ANY perception of black inferiority in anything must be Jim Crow all over again.

    Group differences are not the problem. If Watson had said that he believes that blacks may be smarter and time will tell that they are, no one would have thrown a fit.

    We have to be more specific about what’s really going on. It’s like calling John Bolton a ‘neocon’. No, he’s just a neo-cuck, and Neocons must be called out as Jewish globalist supremacists. ‘Neocon’ goes too easy on the real source of power.

  86. @Peter Johnson

    It was not ‘misapplication’ of Li’s cupola function that was the problem; the function was appropriate for its application, but it was parameterised wrongly (in that it assumed that within-class correlations were zero across regions).

    It was, as usual, a case of people who had no fucking idea what they were doing, implementing a piece of code without understanding what it meant. The same has been happening with Deep Learning and Machine Learning lately: CompSci grads implementing it without understanding the requirements for it to yield statistically-valid results: after all, DL is glorified PCA, and ML is glorified linear regression (I whined about that here, 2 years ago).

    Anyhow… moving on …

    After Lehman, The entire media went into overdrive, pushing the false trope that the entire financial world was blind-sided by unforeseeable problems from CDO/CDS mispricing, when in fact the drama was entirely foreseeable (including its primary underlying cause: incorrect assumptions about correlations). It is of a piece with the ratings-agency exculpation of the period (I hoist the black flag against S&P, Moody’s and Fitch in 2005) –

    They ought to change the definition of each rating to read something like “Securities rated C by Standard & Poors will reflect the default characteristics of a B-rated security, half a day after the B-rated security declares bankruptcy.”

    ZING!!!

    But back to mortgage mi-pricing…

    Below is an excerpt of something I wrote on August 29th, 2004: it was meant as a brief remark at the end of a piece about something only tangentially related, and so does not go too deeply into the nuts and bolts (trancheing, etc) and is part of my “Ratings Agencies Are Shills” period (1992-CurrentYear).

    The most relevant bits are the bold emphasis, which I just added for effect; I have not corrected the typo in ‘une[m]ployment‘ either –

    “Usually the vendor-finance loan book is periodically “packaged” as “Collateralised Debt Obligations” (CDOs) and issued as a bond-like instrument; in order to have these “bonds” rated highly, vendors can purchase “default insurance”. So you can have a segment of a risky loan book coupled with some default insurance, and thanks to an AA rating, get top prices for them (and of course this counts as “earnings”. This is particularly popular for US banks (and GSE’s like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) for their mortgage books.

    The resulting bond includes an instrument (notionally) which shifts default risk to the insurer; insurers are happy because they get to collect all that lovely premium.

    Where it comes undone, is the assumption of independence of default risk across the entire CDO – that is, the default insurance premium is calculated as if the risk of default of one loan within the CDO is independent of the risk of any other loan within the batch.

    Think for one second about that: in a world where mortgages are increasingly being extended to less and less creditworthy individuals (have you seen the commercials on TV lately?), the “correlation” between defaulters is likely to be much higher than zero. Things that make one sub-prime borrower default are highly likely to make other sub-prime borrowers do likewise: rising uneployment or slower real wage growth are felt overwhelmingly at the lower end of the creditworthiness spectrum.

    Folks who run banks don’t care a damn about anything that happens to their book, so long as it happens after they leave. The people who take their place can use the previous incumbent as the fall guy, or initiate an “inquiry” which exonerates everybody… behaviour typical of bureaucracies.

    We are at the “Wile E Coyote” stage now; people are borrowing floating-rate money to refinance fixed-rte obigations, and are adding to debt on top of that in order to fund the gap between the lifestyle they can afford and the one they think they ought to have. Banks andother financial intermediaries are in no way discouraging this, because so long as everybody is pedalling and inflation is depreciating debt over time, things have a chance of working out just fine.”

  87. Travis says:
    @Prodigal son

    not only does the left deny there are IQ differences among the races , they deny the the existence of race. Thus we cannot even debate or speculate as to the cause of the differences, because the leftist maintain that there is no difference in the average IQ of Blacks verse whites and furthermore , there is no “scientific” basis for categorizing humans by race.

  88. @JimDandy

    Perhaps we can cut through the Gordian knot here by pointing out that whites are not at all to blame for black dysfunction. But it’s actually not that simple is it?

    No, it’s definitely not. Negro dysfunction is only dysfunctional in context of Western Civilization. In African tribal society, our behavior would be dysfunctional. In that light, we definitely are to blame because we imported 400,000 of them as slaves and bred (and/or allowed them to breed) into 43,000,000. We made that. Blaming the negro for being what nature made him makes no sense. Nor does it make sense to blame him for being what he is and doing the incalculably massive harm he does in our society. This is our fault and we must fix the problem. The negro must be restored to his natural habitat where he may thrive in freedom from our expectations of behavior.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  89. @Jack D

    Remember that thinking the sole difference between negroes and whites is down to IQ is essentially no different than thinking that it’s just “skin color”. The evolutionary process of 70,000+ years that made the negro darker and with a lower IQ caused a host of other differences both physical and behavioral. Fixing the IQ gap would not make negroes just like us, it would only make negroes with higher IQs. Attributing criminality solely to IQ is claiming correlation equals causation.

  90. @Alfa158

    Elevations near (and under) sea level are a particularly useless metric – all over the globe there are vast acreages that are only a few feet above sea level, but a hundred miles from the sea; worse still, there are vast acreages that lie below sea level, that aren’t even wet.

    (I shouldn’t have to write this next sentence, but the reality of CurrentYear is that a lot of people struggle with sarcasm. The paragraph above was an example of criticising a metric by reference to a failure in a test for which is was not designed (i.e., proximity to the sea and/or wetness))

  91. A ‘griffe‘ is a claw, not a paw. A paw is a patte.

    So unless he copied it from somewhere, or was making some other point, or Sailer got the source wrong … Griffe du Lion fucked up. So much for seichel.

    • Replies: @Coag
    , @CJ
    , @Foreign Expert
  92. Luke Lea says:
    @ben tillman

    “Why does this guy [Taleb] keep conflating intelligence (or IQ) and economic success?

    Because he thinks he’s smart and he made a lot of money selling books?

    • Replies: @ben tillman
  93. @ben tillman

    Why does this guy keep conflating intelligence (or IQ) and economic success?

    Perhaps because in the quant quagmire era, they’re converging?

    This brings to mind Thomas Sowell’s assertion that in medieval days, one could go further in life equipped with muscles than with brains.

    Yes, I know monks were pretty smart. But that’s hardly going far in life; it’s for going further in the afterlife.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
  94. @Cloudbuster

    They did venture out, and then the Confucianists at the Imperial court became opposed to the venturing.

  95. @Reg Cæsar

    Come, now…

    What, were you the film director?

  96. Mungerite says:
    @neutral

    Total wild card, but what are the odds Bezos is thinking of pulling a Martine Rothblatt?

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
    , @Jack D
    , @CJ
  97. @Prester John

    Did you not notice the period at the end of his name? The coherence of the language this time should also have tipped you off…

    • Troll: Tiny Duck.
  98. Doug says:

    As usual, good article Steve. But I have to quibble with one point:

    > “For example, during the Housing Bubble before the 2008 crash, it was widely assumed by Wall Street that mortgage defaults had to be inherently rare because they were distributed according to a bell curve cleverly adapted from life-insurance actuarial science in 2000: Li’s Gaussian copula function.”

    This is a commonly repeated laymen’s myth, but isn’t actually true. I’m a quant who actually worked as a (very junior) risk manager in a major bank’s CDO trading desk in 2007. We never assumed that any market prices were distributed under a normal distribution, and in fact doing so would have got you laughed out of the room.

    That criticism is much more applicable to 1987, when option specialists were by and large still not pricing the volatility smile. But after the crash, literally *everyone* on Wall Street stopped assuming normality. Baseline toy models might be built around normality assumptions, but they were just there to allow fat tails to be added on top.

    The fundamental reason that mortgage securities collapsed was a big bet on mortgage default correlations remaining at their 2004-2006 lows. That was the traders’ call though, who simply had the gut feeling that “this time was different”. The underlying copula models were totally correct and functioned perfectly even through the depths of the crash. The problem was empirical, with bad inputs being put into the models in the first place. Garbage in, garbage out.

    Taleb has built an entire career on attacking a straw man in quant finance that simply doesn’t exist. Meanwhile he uses it to sneak in totally insane ideas that aren’t supported by the evidence at all. Like the volatility premium being negative, whereas a million dollars invested in 2000 a recurring basket of options would be worth less than a thousand today. Even despite the market going through the worse financial crisis in the post-war period.

    To understand what an intellectual joke Taleb is, he skirts around this issue by trying to throw out scientific falsifiability completely. Taleb tries to claim that no matter how much evidence piles up against his crackpot ideas that none of it matters. He does this by claiming that financial returns follow a Cauchy distribution, a pathological mathematical concept, which virtually never appears anywhere in the real physical universe.

    Cauchy distributions have undefined mean and variance, and by definition it’s impossible to learn anything about the underlying statistics of these distributions unless you have an infinite sample. In effect no matter how much Taleb is proven wrong, he basically just says “yeah, yeah, yeah, so far everything’s gone against me. But just wait until the super-gigantic big one hits. It’ll be so much bigger than anything we’ve seen before that it will cancel out all the losses/evidence that came before.

    Predictably Taleb never made any money for his actual investors, and all his wealth has come from book sales. That’s why I wasn’t surprised at his ridiculous uninformed pronouncements on IQ. The man is deeply unscientific, irrational and pretty much rejects the entire corpus of the enlightenment. How he’s tricked so many otherwise smart people into believing him to be a great thinker is just beyond me.

    • Agree: Stan d Mute
  99. @Reg Cæsar

    Perhaps because in the quant quagmire era, they’re converging?

    Are they? Intelligence and other productive characteristics play a part, but mostly it’s about being part of a favored ingroup.

  100. @Peter Johnson

    Oh Daddy….talk dirty to me…..

  101. JimDandy says:

    Taleb is an anti-Palestinian Lebanese Christian, so he can count on being promoted and protected. But all that lifting of weights and Progressive virtue signaling means he’s chasing young New York tail. Any way he can be implicated in some #metoo scandal?

  102. Anonymous[375] • Disclaimer says:
    @Doug

    Taleb says he made tens of millions in trading profits on Black Monday in 1987. I think he’s also said that he made a ton of money in the ’08 crash. He said very little of his wealth comes from book sales.

  103. @Anon

    “Hurtful” comes in a very close second to “profoundly unfortunate” among the observations.

    This indeed is the very stuff of science!!

  104. @Calvin X Hobbes

    What is the Fundamental Constant of Reading Comprehension?

  105. Luke Lea says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    “In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    This is to assume that a person is to blame for their IQ. (Hopefully many other commenters have already made this point.) A better question might be, who is to blame for the fact that someone with an IQ of 85 (or 100) who works hard and plays by the rules cannot realistically look forward to a rich and rewarding life in our society as it is presently organized?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Corvinus
  106. J.Ross says: • Website

    Science So White II: The Currying

    Indian Science Congress Speakers Say Newton Was Wrong, Ancient Demon-King Had Planes

    At this year’s annual meeting of the Indian Science Congress from Jan. 3 to 7, senior research scientist Kannan Jagathala Krishnan dismissed Einstein’s theory of relativity as “a big blunder” and said Isaac Newton didn’t really understand how gravity works.

    Nageshwar Rao, a vice chancellor at Andhra University in South India, said that Ravana, a demon god with 10 heads, had 24 kinds of aircraft of varying sizes and capacities — and that India was making test-tube babies thousands of years ago.

    Dinosaurs were created by the Hindu god Brahma, said Ashu Khosla, a scientist with expertise in paleontology at Panjab University in the North Indian city of Chandigarh.

    Krishnan, Rao and Khosla were addressing a group of 5,000 children assembled from all over the country at the event’s Children’s Science Congress. Their lectures were posted on YouTube and reported widely by the press. The congress organizers were red-faced, and the scientific community in India was outraged.

    http://archive.is/wliR1

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/01/09/683298815/speakers-at-indian-science-congress-say-newton-was-wrong-ancient-demon-had-airpl

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @Anon7
  107. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Cloudbuster

    The Chinese really didn’t even want the lands they had, although they disliked worse the idea of anyone else running them. They were control freak enough to not even try if the distances involved suggested some autonomy. In other words a speculative fiction “Han Age of Exploration” to European levels would require massively different Chinese people.

  108. songbird says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    I have heard leftists say that whites “scapegoat blacks.” It is such a bizarre construction that it must prove that point.

  109. J.Ross says: • Website

    Did Bill Gates just admit that inequality is based in our genes? He bases his statement carefully but also comes right up to the unsayable.

    Bill Gates recently described a cutting-edge scientific technique called gene editing as “the most important public debate we haven’t been having widely enough.”

    Gene editing has been used in the US as a one-time treatment for disease, but a Chinese researcher recently said he helped create the first genetically edited babies.

    Many more people should be paying attention to gene editing and what it could do, Gates said.

    Gene editing is one of the most promising new approaches to treating human diseases today.

    It also raises “enormous” ethical questions, Bill Gates recently warned, and “could make inequity worse, especially if it is available only for wealthy people.”

    “I am surprised that these issues haven’t generated more attention from the general public,” he said in a December blog post, adding that “this might be the most important public debate we haven’t been having widely enough.”

    Gene editing allows scientists to make powerful, precise changes to a person’s DNA, typically to fix a defective gene.

    Ethical concerns about what the approach might be used for have long existed, but it came to a boil recently when a Chinese researcher said he had played a role in creating the first genetically edited babies.

    Gene editing has already taken place in humans in the US as a one-time treatment for disease. But unlike those efforts, the Chinese scientist’s work would allow genetic changes to be passed down to other generations. It quickly sparked backlash, with many researchers describing the project as concerning and unethical.

    Gates’ warning, released as part of the billionaire philanthropist’s 2018 wrap-up, appears to have been prompted by that recent news.

    “I agree with those who say this scientist went too far,” Gates said. “But something good can come from his work if it encourages more people to learn and talk about gene editing.”

    Archive link: http://archive.vn/KyXfz

    Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-says-gene-editing-raises-ethical-questions-2019-1

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @megabar
  110. “So, if Taleb and La Griffe have opposite approaches, which one is right?
    Well, reality is complicated, so they can both be highly useful.”

    Taleb and LaGriffe are males who cannot handle the truth. At this point in time, we know that there are 3 racial groups: Caucasoids, Mongoloids and Negroids. Caucasoids have the highest IQs, then the Mongoloids and the Negroids are last. Biology is always first in determining a person. IQ is directly related to race.

    Also, look at world history from the beginning. The West (which is not black/Asian/Jewish/Muslim) created the greatest civilization ever in terms of science, religion, philosophy, technology, etc. Asians/blacks will never be like Caucasians.

    Taleb is a Lebanese Christian. Lebanon has an average IQ of 84. This is because of the majority Lebanese Muslim population. Lebanese Christians are highly intelligent and successful. The Muslim Lebanese were destroyed by inbreeding and some miscegenation. Taleb has to deal with these facts. The Lebanese Christians and Muslims are biologically different.

    However, we do know the quickest way to destroy intelligence – mixing with blacks/Asians. The ancient Egyptians (Caucasians) are proof of this. 90% of modern day Egyptians have black ancestry and an average IQ of 84. They are not related and will never be like the ancient Egyptians.

    The same thing happened to ancient India. The ancient Indians were Aryans. They mixed with Asians and destroyed their intelligence. The average IQ in India today is 82.

    These are the things Taleb and La Griffe should be discussing.

  111. @Luke Lea

    A better question might be, who is to blame for the fact that someone with an IQ of 85 (or 100) who works hard and plays by the rules cannot realistically look forward to a rich and rewarding life in our society as it is presently organized?

    José the dishwasher.

  112. @Doug

    I really enjoyed reading this comment, thanks.

    • Agree: bomag
  113. @Mungerite

    My first thought as well, whereupon the ladies (?) Bezos would both be the Richest Women in the World..

  114. RJJCDA says:

    Ah, the tails of the curve represent the extremes of dolts, and genius. The European ancestry tails (flanges) are wider, thicker and produce many more geniuses even nominally than East Asians despite their right-shifted median.

    • Replies: @megabar
  115. @Cloudbuster

    Cloud, Interesting comment and certainly something I will ponder and research.

  116. @Pincher Martin

    Nice distinction. They have trouble with them around here.

  117. gcochran says:
    @Stick

    “(and that’s no fun)”

    !

  118. @Alfa158

    Give up. He is too smart for you.

  119. @Doug

    Let’s see. You are a 2008 wheeler-dealer. And you expect us to “believe” you. I’d say, statistically speaking, everything you say is a damned lie. Statistically speaking.

    • Replies: @dr kill
    , @bomag
  120. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @Cloudbuster

    And paragraphs.

  121. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @J.Ross

    One of Gates’ kids has learning disabilities.

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  122. J.Ross says: • Website

    XA XA XA! In Putinist Raasseeya, Russian hackers cooperate with authorities to nail Americanets nogoodnik!
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/kaspersky-blew-whistle-on-nsa-hacking-tool-hoarder/

    After responding to the messages, both Kaspersky researchers were promptly blocked by the @HAL999999999 account, according to Politico’s sources. Analysis of the account by Kaspersky researchers linked it to Martin and work he did for the US intelligence community. That prompted Kaspersky employees to reach out to the NSA, as they believed it might be connected to the Shadow Brokers case.

  123. Hail says: • Website
    @joeyjoejoe

    Is the measure of accuracy of IQ tests at the right tail its ability to predict success in a moneymaking career?

    This comment, for some reason, leads me to wonder about correlation between IQ score and MBTI types; a 130-IQ MBTI-type-a vs. a 130-IQ MBTI-type-b might pursue very different forms of ‘moneymaking.’

    I have seen some commenters here dismiss MBTI as something like astrology which I don’t think is fair. MBTI does seem to me to have decent predictive power.

    • Replies: @res
  124. @Reg Cæsar

    The Fundamental Constant of Scientology?

    “Follow The Money.”

  125. Hail says: • Website

    I notice TakiMag is now touting paid subscriptions to [1] remove ads, [2] see and make comments, and [3] as a way to support the site without donation campaigns.

    I don’t recall TakiMag having had a subscription service before.

    Pay to Play – Put your money where your mouth is and subscribe for an ad-free experience and to join the world famous Takimag comment board.

    Ads help us cover the cost of running Taki’s Magazine, but they can be distracting. For a small fee you can have an ad-free experience. Please support the site and help us stand against political correctness.

    $12.00/Monthly

    $144.00/Yearly

    Are you already subscribed to Taki`s Magazine? Login Now.

    (The ad-heavy nature of TakiMag is really distracting and in the past has caused browser instability/crashes for me.)

    • Replies: @attilathehen
  126. megabar says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    Extremistan isn’t only due to feedback effects, though they are clearly one way we can get there.

    Consider the number of golf tournaments won as a metric, which someone mentioned earlier. There is little feedback between tournaments.

    A golf tournament result is a function of many independent outcomes, for which the players’ abilities are probably mostly Gaussian. A player who is just slightly better than his peers will have a huge advantage in winning a tournament which is comprised of ~280 independent events.

    This form, I think, applies widely in sports.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  127. megabar says:
    @J.Ross

    > Did Bill Gates just admit that inequality is based in our genes? He bases his statement carefully but also comes right up to the unsayable.

    Yeah, that was my first thought when I read this as well. I think it’s actually quite defensible though, even in polite society, because few deny that individuals vary in genetic capacity for intellectual work. It’s only when you talk about groups (races, classes) that it becomes gauche. Further, you can couch this as “rich people already give environmental advantages to their children, and now they can additionally give genetic advantages….”

    If he is, in fact, more realistic than that, I’d love to have an honest, off-the-record chat with him (or any other obviously intelligent person who’s both socially left and a realist). I’d be curious to know what he thinks the end game is for progressive policies — will the West, in his mind, simply become productive enough to deal with unproductive citizens within?

    • Replies: @bomag
  128. megabar says:
    @RJJCDA

    > The European ancestry tails (flanges) are wider, thicker and produce many more geniuses [than East Asians]

    The only discussion of this that I’ve seen with actual numbers did not support this theory.

  129. Well… if you posit that IQ measures some real physical characteristic, it is possible that the underlying real physical characteristic is not distributed in a Gaussian distribution, but the test forces it into a Gaussian distribution by the choice and weighing of questions. But, this seems unlikely* for a few reasons:

    Non-IQ tests that objectively measure neurological functions or parameters follow a Gaussian distribution (or Poisson distribution, but close enough). For example, reflex time on some task, measured in milliseconds is normally distributed. Nerve conduction velocity in meters/s. Brain volume in mL.

    Non-IQ tests of cognitive function that do not require any particular question selection or weighing tend to follow a Gaussian distribution as well. For example, how many digits an average person memorize? How likely is a person to be able to define a word randomly chosen from the dictionary? These tests have no leeway on question selection or weighing, but the results tend to follow a Gaussian distribution.

    So it would be strange if all of these things associated with the neurological system were normally distributed, but the underlying physical characteristic measured by IQ (whatever that is) was not.

    Secondly, it is quite difficult to make a test that forces underlying non-normally distributed data into a normal distribution without damaging the validity and predictive power of the test. Let me give an example.

    Suppose you want a way to score how strong someone is, call it strength quotient (SQ.) You decide to test this based on the number of push ups someone can do, which you think is proportional to some underlying measure of muscle strength. And suppose that your population consisted of a mix of men and women, and the men could do an average of 30 push ups with a standard deviation of 5, and the women could do 3 push ups with a standard deviation of 2. So the underlying distribution is not Gaussian, it is bimodal, with a big peak for men and one for women.

    But suppose you want to force your test SQ to have a normal distribution. Well, you could do that by weighing each push up differently–for example you get 100 points for the first push up, 80 for 2-3, 30 for 4-8, 10 for 9-30 and 5 for each beyond that. Doing this would smush the two peaks of your distribution together to make a Gaussian.

    However if you did this your test SQ would have horrible real world predictive power, because the differential weighing that you used to force it to be a Gaussian distribution distorted the underlying physical characteristic so much. Someone at the SQ of 46th percentile and 52nd percentile could have wildly different underlying push up abilities. Given that we know that IQ has a reasonably good predictive power it seems unlikely that the test-makers have distorted an underlying non-Gaussian distribution into a Gaussian.

    Incidentally, this is very much a real problem in some types of cognitive testing. I have experience writing questions for a medical subspecialty exam, and the biggest problem that we have is that anything that we can ask about that is clinically relevant, almost everyone will know the answer to. The underlying distribution of clinical competence basically looks like a right triangle, with the fat part at ‘competent’. So we’ve found while bad scores on our test predict bad performance, at the high end everyone has pretty much the same raw score. So their percentile score swings crazily depending on one or two questions. And not surprisingly for these residents the score is not consistent year to year, and doesn’t seem to predict long term success…

    *Now, there is one obvious exception and that is weighing different subsets of cognitive ability to produce a composite score. To be specific–if for example men score higher on visual spatial questions on an exam, and women score higher on verbal questions, then you can weigh the two sections of the exam in such a way that men and women have identical average scores and thus avoid a bimodal distribution. This is going to be a problem in any test that not relatively narrow in scope, and where subgroups may have different relative strengths or weaknesses…

  130. @Joe Stalin

    WHY IS NEIL ARMSTRONG THANKED IN THE “ICE CREAM GENIUS” BOOKLET?
    “I don’t know Neil, but both his sons are fans of Marillion and I have become friends with his son Rick. I met Rick after a show in Columbus, Ohio and he was asking me who the astronaut was intended to represent in the publicity shot we’d done for Afraid of Sunlight because he said the album was like the story of his dad’s life. Well, we had our photograph taken together and he promised to send me the photograph. As it turned out, he also sent me an official NASA shot of his dad, signed and dedicated. He’s in the spacesuit with the moon behind him. I hung the picture between the speakers while I was writing the album and whenever I’m feeling desperate and everything seems impossible, I take a good long look at him and he shows me that you can do anything if you’re really determined. It was for this inspiration that I placed him at the top of the thanks list.”

  131. Hail says: • Website
    @Alfa158

    elevation above sea level is not a useful geographic parameter.

    The opportunity for parody does not easily exhaust itself.

    Education, as a measure: Useless because some lower educated people are more successful (or more productive, or happier) than more highly educated. Guru Taleb’s policy advice: “Ban the malicious practice of putting education on CV/resumes. All hirings must be done by past experience only. For those without experience, hire by dice roll.”

    Anti-smoking campaigns: Few who smoke 1.0 cigarettes per week get lung cancer and many live to age 100. Guru Taleb’s policy advice: “This frightful lack of correlation at 1.0 cigarettes/week and cancer proves that anti-smoking campaigns are useless and likely the self-enriching technique of a few fatcats. Ban anti-smoking campaigns.”

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  132. res says:
    @Hail

    This comment, for some reason, leads me to wonder about correlation between IQ score and MBTI types

    You might be interested in this: https://research.similarminds.com/intelligence-test-performance-and-myers-briggs-type/28

    • Replies: @gregor
  133. @Hail

    Mr. Taki is worth a couple hundred million. He can afford to fund the website himself.

  134. dr kill says:
    @Travis

    In the next decade? Dude, have you seen the PP stats?

  135. Anon[126] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    NP;DR (no paragraphing, didn’t read)

  136. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Hail

    The anti-smoking campaigns really were a pernicious fillip to bad reasoning, and now any time the doctors talk about a power grab they point to the anti-smoking campaigns as their great triumph. I want to see refined sugar reduced but I don’t want to see lying government messages, health as a justification for Bolshevik practices (they had several aggressive anti-smoking campaigns for the public health, which ought to amuse anyone familiar with Russia), and legislative virtue signalling.

    • Replies: @jim jones
  137. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    “In truth, the scientific question of whether the racial gap in IQ is partially genetic in origin gets people so worked up emotionally because it is widely seen as a proxy for the moral debate over: Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    I guess you could argue that the people who ended segregation are morally to blame for releasing blacks from the constraints that incentivized black eufunction, but was it morally right to impose those constraints in the first place?

  138. @Alfa158

    “But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs.”

    That’s just plain stupid. Why would they reveal that? It’s immaterial.

  139. @Travis

    When the left eventually recognizes the IQ differences between races they will not use this knowledge to blame blacks for their shortcomings , but use it to justify even more government spending to even the playing field.

    We’re talking about intelligence differences, not IQ differences, and such differences (or IQ differences if you prefer) cannot be affected by spending. The spending would not be justified as providing a level playing field; they would be justified as necessary to provide an equal outcome.

  140. Jack D says:
    @Mungerite

    Zero. Bezos has been seeing homewrecker and fellow Latino Lauren Sanchez:

    She is a hot tamale who could make even Ricky Martin give up boys. A roll in the hay with Lauren is WORTH $70 billion!

  141. @joeyjoejoe

    “Taleb is scornful of the assumptions that IQ tests can be trustworthy at the right tails—is a person who scores 160 (99.99th percentile) more likely to succeed in a moneymaking career than a person who scores 145 (99.7th percentile)?”

    Why does this guy keep conflating intelligence (or IQ) and economic success?

    • Replies: @Luke Lea
    , @Reg Cæsar
  142. Jack D says:

    OT – there is now literally no one left who is pure enough to meet Hollywood’s standards for hosting the Oscars, so there isn’t going to be a host:

    https://ricochet.com/587096/no-host-is-pure-enough-to-host-the-oscars/?fbclid=IwAR2HlBe8xnVoI3dqAd6hxcaJ9qfjJSTPVpJ6fM0j1Z2rTIhATufka6Fv9Ns

    We know that the stars that make up the Academy are themselves all exemplary characters so it is only fitting that they be represented before the worldwide audience by someone who himself has an unblemished record. They asked Jesus to host but he was unavailable since he was tied up presiding over the Throne of Heaven.

    It’s too late for this year but the best bet for next year is for them to program a new AI robot who has no track record that the commissars can pore over to find if it ever told any gay jokes.

  143. gregor says:
    @Prodigal son

    It’s context dependent.

    Usually, they will freak out if anyone points out the IQ gap or uses it to explain anything. “OMG did you just say white people are smarter than black people?!” They do this primarily as a deterrent. And it works. This is the go-to approach whenever they can get away with it. This is the rule in any “mainstream” forum.

    At the same time, I think they realize that they can’t just let the Bell Curve/Sailer material sit out there uncontested. Hence they do produce apologetic material as needed. When they are cornered with arguments and data (never happens in mainstream discussions) they will admit there’s an observed difference and will shift to arguing that it isn’t genetic. But the very next day/hour they will likely slide back to talking as though the gap doesn’t exist at all.

    When Sam Harris interviewed Charles Murray on his podcast, the liberals went apeshit because the last thing they want is a guy like Harris redpilling his huge, not exactly right-wing audience on IQ. The liberals of course did all the usual attacks. But they also deemed it worthy to offer some sort of rebuttal. Vox published an apologetic response by Turkheimer et al in which they very casually conceded pretty much everything (including that the common racial categories are basically valid) and just tried to hold the line on the IQ gap not being genetic.

  144. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    In case you are wondering, I could make a plausible guess who the distinguished author likely is, but I don’t believe in doxxing anybody who chooses a pseudonym.

    Fair. But if you are sticking to what you mentioned about La Griffe in the past, then your plausible guess will be wrong.

    La Griffe is frequently criticized on the grounds that his approach is too simplistic and the numbers derived are thus unrealistic. That’s stupid. Yes, he deals with spherical cows but the beauty of them is in this case is how illuminating such simplifications can be.

  145. Frank G says:

    I feel like we might get a more objective analysis if Steve weren’t personally friends with Taleb.

  146. Anon[395] • Disclaimer says:

    The Fundamental Constant of Foreign Policy

    Saudi Arabia is US ally. Whatever happened to the Kashoggi Scandal? Saudis are Made Men, and like Israelis, get away with everything.

  147. @Stan d Mute

    Put another way, the negro is simply an invasive species like the zebra mussel is in my Great Lakes. He’s made the waters clear, he’s not evil, but this is not his home and he’s destroying the ecosystem and making it impossible for the native species of fish to survive. In the same fashion the negro has brought the behaviors necessary to survive his natural native habitat into our Western Civilization which cannot survive his presence.

    The balance of nature must be restored. If it is not, the natural order will be permanently altered beyond recognition. The evidence of this process we see already is overwhelming.

  148. People’s unwillingness to accept the truth, or even to get caught saying it, on this issue gets tedious.

    One doesn’t even really need to refer to IQ tests at all. By almost any measure one chooses — personal experience, sociological measurements, historical achievement, academic performance, incarceration rates, skull size, achievement varying inversely to the degree to which one is completely black, whatever — blacks, as a group, perform in a way that demonstrates that they are on average significantly less intelligent than Asians or whites.

    When all the answers come back the same, it’s a fact. The average person in general is dumb as a post, but the average black is even dumber than that. It’s pointless and even mischievious to pretend otherwise.

    All that’s even mildly interesting is why people feel compelled to pretend otherwise. If major chunks of the intelligensia persisted in denying Australia was there, I wouldn’t feel moved to try to prove to them that Australia was there; I’d want to consider why they felt it necessary to deny it.

  149. anon[166] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Several days ago I happened to watch an interview Bezos did at the Economic Club of Washington.

    Check out the extreme awkwardness when asked to speak of his wife. He not so smoothly segued over to his parents.

  150. @Jack D

    Corey Booker needs to contact Mackenzie ASAP.

  151. You let Taleb off easy. The man craves conflict, he might not even believe what he says about IQ, but merely seeks a fight and to feel self righteous.

    In terms of sampling, we know IQ is normal because when we sample the population and give them tests, the score is normal. Sampling of this sort gives you a distribution which mirrors, with some unevenness, the population. If we’d looked at some transformation of the sample, say the mean or SD. Repeated sampling would yield a normal shaped histogram of said transformations. You get normal curves whenever the determinants of something are themselves stochastic, even if their distributions aren’t normal. Alleles and environmental insults look like they follow distributions of frequency, so when you sum up their effects, IQ is normal, more or less. Only problem is the normal density always includes the whole real line, so as a model it technically predicts some probability for negative IQ.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  152. @Jack D

    Zero. Bezos has been seeing homewrecker and fellow Latino Lauren Sanchez:

    Perhaps he read this:

    https://www.listland.com/10-reasons-bald-men-are-scientifically-sexier-than-men-with-hair/

    Wisdom is a comb given to a man once he is bald.– Irish proverb

    Go tell the Great Father to send us no more bald men. I never saw a bald-headed man who was not a liar.– Chief Spotted Tail

    The Blind are hateful, the Bald are depraved; cripples can kill without a sword.

    Of ten Bald men, nine are deceitful, the tenth is dumb.

    The Bald are false, the Blind perverse, and one-eyed people are even worse.

    Chinese proverbs

    (Apologies to Ray Sawyer, RIP.)

  153. @Peter Johnson

    Known in academic circles as the Francis Ford Copula

  154. On topic:
    has anyone ever made the case that IQ, or “g factor”, which it supposedly measures, is materially grounded in the brain in some specific way? If so, what way? And what are the arguments that tie the statistical data involving IQ to the supposed material underpinnings? If nobody has done this, why not?
    These are serious questions. I am personally pulled in opposite directions regarding IQ. It is obvious that some people are “smarter” than others and it is obvious that all sorts of external factors are useful markers for who is “smarter”. At the same time, I do think that an excessive focus on IQ is dangerous, inasmuch as the great value of IQ is that it enables actual culture. Ignoring culture in favor of IQ seems to grievously miss the point. But that is me. I am really asking about the hypothetical material instantiation of IQ.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @SimpleSong
  155. @Alfa158

    The only person with an IQ of 150 doing a menial job that I am aware of…

    There’s Christopher Michael Langan, whose IQ was measured at 195, who worked as a nightclub bouncer, cowboy, construction worker, and Park Service firefighter.

  156. @Tiny Duck.

    Teeny,

    Soul bros.: zero major Scientific, Mathematic, Engineering or Technological discoveries or achievements. constructed Zero surviving edifices from antiquity…invented Jazz, new peanut butter recipes

    White men: magma carta, calculus, calculus of variations, solved the cubic, quartic, and quintic (with infinite series, elliptic integrals, theta functions) and the Basel problem, Fermats last theorem walked on the moon, television, radio, air conditioning, internet, medicine, scientific method, etc, modern sanitation, economics, eradicated small pox, polio, and now almost HIV, Fugues, harmony, sonatas, etc…the Liszt Sonata the apex of beauty and technique

    “Negro supremacy”? Giggle test? ROFLMAO

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Realist
  157. @Prodigal son

    Along with IQ, male-female differences has certainly become the other deadly third rail of scientific inquiry

  158. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Harry Baldwin

    Robert A. Heinlein has that tempting claim in Job that menial work lets you think; Henry Miller made a similar claim in Tropic of Cancer, where he mentions deliberately working as a garbage man, when he could almost cetainly get a better job, because it made space for his writing.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
  159. Anon[135] • Disclaimer says:
    @SporadicMyrmidon

    has anyone ever made the case that IQ, or “g factor”, which it supposedly measures, is materially grounded in the brain in some specific way?

    See Richard Haier’s book The Neuroscience of Intelligence and Kevin Mitchell’s book Innate. Haier reviews what has been learned from various MRI-type imaging, and autopsy research, and Mitchell reviews it from the point of view of brain development, much of it originally based on mouse research.

    IQ and g turns out to be a pretty simple thing: It’s simply an indication of a “better” brain, a brain with a greater volume of cerebral cortex, fewer but more efficient axons connecting things up properly, and few assymetries or underdeveloped areas in the brain.

    It’s starting to look like there may be an upper limit to IQ in that lower IQ people have problems of various sorts caused by mutations (miswritten or modified bases) at various stages during brain development. The earlier in the process the mutation happens, the worse the effect. High IQ people just have fewer mutations, but you cannot get fewer than zero mutations, so that is an asymptotic limit.

    The low level simplicity of IQ makes sense when you think that it implies good performance on so many disparate skills, language, math, short term memory, visualization, reaction speed, and so forth.

  160. @Luke Lea

    Did he? I’ve never heard of him outside of this blog.

  161. @Harry Baldwin

    worked as a nightclub bouncer, cowboy, construction worker, and Park Service firefighter

    He’s like a one-man Village People.

    Also: “A guy with a high IQ was a firefighter, what a loser. IQ isn’t real.”

    • LOL: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
  162. @Stan d Mute

    I guess you never saw the underground film “Sailor Steve Takes on the Seamen from the Fifth Fleet”?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailor_Steve_Costigan

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  163. Anon[263] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    I’ve been working on a plan to submit to Jeff Bezos. He’s a real shoot-for-the-stars kind of guy, and the scale of my plan will appeal to him.

    They say that about ten percent of people in Asia can trace their ancestry to Genghis Khan. This is a record that Bezos should aim to destroy, to have an enormous number of children. to literally write himself into the cells of most of the future human population. I think it’s realistic for him to aim at 100,000 progeny. Here are the details:

    — Luxury high-rise concubine condominiums around the world, including impoverished third world countries, maybe 1,000 women per tower, complete child care and obstetrics facilities

    — Recriuting of young women willing to have a baby a year for Bezos, all expenses paid

    — Semen extraction and processing facilities in Seattle, Washington, D.C., and New York (Lauren Sanchez’s mouth or décolletage could be involved in this process. Ideally, collection would occur every two hours during waking hours to stimulation fresh sperm production.

    — Relocation of children throughout the world before puberty to reduce inbreeding rates.

    — Bezos could jet around to his concubine towers to personally fertilize a select number of the residents, although lab techs would be waiting in the adjacent room to save as much of the semen as possible for redistribution.

  164. Svigor says:

    Hypothesis: Big Media’s “butt-kicking babe” thing is intended to increase domestic violence. I.e., convince women (who are more vulnerable to Big Media influence than men are) that they’re more physically potent than they actually are, that men are less physically potent than they actually are, convince women that confronting men physically is a better idea than it is, etc.

    All under the usual paper-thin leftist guise of “doing good.”

    Discuss.

    (Just watched the nth instance of waif-vs-brute combat in Counterpart (poorly-written and -run show, btw; it’s amazing how easy it is for untalented Jews to get writing & producing jobs in Big Media) and was really struck by how absurdly the show overestimates female puissance and underestimates male)

    • Replies: @lavoisier
  165. Has anyone ever done an analysis of how people get to stay ever so slightly away from crossing the badthinker line, no matter how may signals they give that they are well beyond it? Consider, for instance, Taleb, John McWhorter and Rod Dreher. I’m using these somewhat diverse examples since I read stuff by each of them and find it insightful, but despite criticism that they get, it seems many goodthinkers do not consider them beyond the pale. (I suspect many leftists have no idea at all how “right wing” Taleb is since he invokes math so much. He praises Vox Day on twitter, and rightly so.)

  166. @Joe Stalin

    Even the male engineers who turn themselves into women are masculine.

  167. El Dato says:

    On the other hand, many metrics we find interesting are in Extremistan. As Charles Murray, coauthor of The Bell Curve, noted in his 2003 book Human Accomplishment, the distribution of career victories in PGA tournaments more closely follows an L-shaped power law than a bell curve.

    Evidently not all distributions of “measured values” of a “class of real-world objects that are of interest” have a Gaussian distribution. Or even a well-defined distribution at all if the measured values are ill-defined, the class of real-world objects is ill-defined or the distribution changes with time.

    The “Black Swan” lives somewhere in those breakdowns. It is itself very ill defined; there is a probability distribution of being hit by bullets fired by drunken revelers, but being hit by one is being visited by a Black Swan. “Being hit” though applies to an individual experience, which is not the subject of study in “probability distributions”.

    Real Gaussians (really the distribution that carries least information) are somewhat rare as they demand thorough mixing. It’s practically the sign of a dead physical system like gases in thermal equilibrium.

    Just looking at the mass distribution of Near-Earth Asteroids for example reveals a distribution that is not Gaussian. Because the system is complex and not in equilibrium – asteroids are thrown around and filtered by planetary masses.

    OTOH you use the Gaussian when you don’t really know all that much about the system under study and want to make progress anyway:

    Why the Normal Distribution?

    This short note explains in simple terms why the normal distribution is so ubiquitous in pattern recognition applications. As we will see, the answer comes from information theory: when we compress a data set by keeping only the mean and variance of the problem’s classes, the distribution which allows us to keep on working probabilistically, while making minimal assumptions about the data, is, precisely, the normal distribution.

    A correction for the Takimag article:

    In truth, we don’t really know that intelligence is distributed according to the normal distribution. It’s what you get when you sample randomly, so it’s not implausible that many real-world phenomena work like that. Plus, it seems to predict life outcomes surprisingly well. Finally, as La Griffe shows, the math is wonderfully easy.

    That should probably be amended to “It’s what you get when you sample randomly from molecule speeds in a heat bath or distance from the center of a Galton Board.”

  168. El Dato says:
    @Harry Baldwin

    who worked as a nightclub bouncer, cowboy, construction worker, and Park Service firefighter.

    You will spend time in the gym…!

    Einstein slummed it in the Patent Office and could think about what Lorentz really had to say.

  169. @Jack D

    Of course the genetic component (say 49%) will never be cured, at least not until there are advancements in genetic engineering far beyond current technology.

    There’s a very simple and proven formula to fix this problem. The formula has worked for thousands of years successfully. No genetic engineering is needed. (In fact, no special technology is needed at all.)

    Here goes:

    a) No sex before marriage.
    b) Only one sex partner for life – your spouse.
    c) No divorce.

    Four generations and your problem will be solved.

    The fact that a working, time-tested solution is ignored means that deliberate malice is in play, not ignorance or a lack of technology.

  170. Moses says:
    @Dan Kurt

    Meh, I just skip comments like that. If someone can’t order his thoughts cogently then his thoughts are not worth reading.

  171. @Franz Liszt von Raiding

    I seem to recall a Chinese-American guy was the main man in keeping people from dying of AIDS.

    • Troll: Tiny Duck.
    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  172. @Reg Cæsar

    About one in twenty bald guys pulls it off with any appeal.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  173. @Steve Sailer

    Steve, wake up. We need a Bezos Divorce Thread (I mean World’s Richest Woman thread)
    and one on this….

    Fertility rate for white women plummets BELOW the limit needed to maintain the population in every single US state

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6574435/White-women-lower-fertility-rates-state-rates-black-Hispanic-women-rise.html

    Yes, even Utah. It’s as though there were something in the water in the USA.

    By ‘water’, of course, I mean ‘mass media’…

  174. @anonymous coward

    a) No sex before marriage.
    b) Only one sex partner for life – your spouse.
    c) No divorce.

    Jeez man, I’m saying ‘kill me now’ and I’m as white as the driven snow.

  175. @anonymous coward

    Besides your obviously commenting-while-Catholic, you’re ignorant of the history of monogamy: Demanded of women mostly not required of men.

  176. @Mr McKenna

    Jeez man, I’m saying ‘kill me now’ and I’m as white as the driven snow.

    And there lies the problem. That all would have been normal to your grandfather. Or, if not him personally — there have always been rakes — he would have recognized it as a societal norm.

  177. Realist says:
    @Franz Liszt von Raiding

    White men: magma carta, calculus, calculus of variations, solved the cubic, quartic, and quintic (with infinite series, elliptic integrals, theta functions) and the Basel problem, Fermats last theorem walked on the moon, television, radio, air conditioning, internet, medicine, scientific method, etc, modern sanitation, economics, eradicated small pox, polio, and now almost HIV, Fugues, harmony, sonatas, etc…the Liszt Sonata the apex of beauty and technique

    And a million other significant achievements.

  178. @Mr McKenna

    ‘White’ is not a medicine that prevents sexual degeneracy and dysgenics. Keep up the sexual “liberation” ethos and even ‘whites’ will regress to Negro IQ norms in four generations.

    I understand that the racial supremacy spiel is just a comforting lie; people want to think that their magic “genes” will save them from their massive dysgenic practices. It doesn’t work that way. Magic “genes” plus sexual degeneracy plus dysgenics just means a quicker and harder crash.

    Look at the transgenderism, gay “marriage” and childfree movements; all products of being ‘white’.

  179. Anon7 says:
    @J.Ross

    The Currying! Nice.

    Since scientific consensus involves a “counting”, and India produces many more “scientists” than picky Western universities, the Currying of science has only just begun.

    I’m sure you’ll enjoy this story, which is related to the “Chariots of the Gods” delusion that I recall from my own undergrad years (which forms the basis for the Indian ancient astronauts story):

    The Handbags of the Gods

  180. Anon7 says:

    “Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    It’s not like blacks haven’t noticed the problem, and it’s not like they aren’t taking steps to solve it.

    The first way is the “cargo cult” method of skin lightening, which you’ve written a lot about. If a black gal lightens her skin, she’ll be more white, and therefore smarter and more capable. Or she’ll be perceived as such, which you might see as the same thing, especially if you’re not very smart.

    The second way is pure genetics – marry a white guy and you’ll improve the IQ of the next generation. Although Chris Rock says that when you see a nice looking black girl with a nerdy looking white guy, it means that her credit is terrible. “Girl, how come you’re with him?” “They was about to take away my car!”

    I don’t know if you’ve noticed this, but I could swear that black athletes are getting smarter. In the 1970’s, a black basketball player interviewed on TV was pure ghetto. Today, not only do they talk more like white people, they look more white, at least in terms of having caucasian facial structure.

  181. @J.Ross

    There is considerable truth to that.

  182. @Hippopotamusdrome

    BTW, he’s featured on this pretty interesting article on super-high IQ people in Esquire from 2007.

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a206/smartest-man-1199/

    • Replies: @George
  183. @Tanturn

    Have the masculine men in the military opposed the poz?

    Fair point. Every man inside every institution seems to put salary and career above anything else. I guess many do.

    Maybe we need to cut down the power that institutions have?

  184. @Joe Stalin

    Engineers are masculine in their approach to work. But when it comes to truly challenging any social system, they seem pretty womanlike.

  185. @Reg Cæsar

    If you think I’m taking your bait on “waterfront fisting” or the monkey, you’re mistaken..

  186. gregor says:
    @res

    Wow that is actually pretty dramatic. I thought I remember reading that the Big Five traits were not very related to IQ aside from Openess to Experience (positive relationship). Yet here we see significant patterns including the INT* types dominating the high end. Maybe MBTI is picking up something the Big Five is missing?

    • Replies: @res
  187. sensitive says:
    @Stick

    The source of your conflict lies in the organ of verbal communication. A real world solution with a little duct tape would make a great deal of difference for you.

  188. BB753 says:
    @Tanturn

    I was halfway through the article before I began to wonder what porn and masturbation had to do with the fundamental axiom of sociology. (Yes, I’m that thick!) Unless the point were that sociology is one massive circle-jerk, which it still is in many ways. With Lewontin, Gould et alii as their porn.

  189. Corvinus says:

    “Who is more to blame for black dysfunction, whites or blacks?”

    Both are to blame. Next question.

  190. @Tiny Duck.

    When Ghana armored cav shows up on the Florida coast lets see who’s laughing.

  191. Corvinus says:
    @Luke Lea

    Gold box for your comment.

    • Replies: @res
  192. Jack D says:
    @anonymous coward

    Really, marriage is the cure for stupidity? Who knew? It might be the cure for black bad behavior (not really – see below), but not for stupidity. It just means that you get well behaved stupid people. This is better than badly behaved stupid people but it’s not the “cure” I was referring to.

    For a couple of generations leading up to the 1950s, blacks were under pressure from American society to behave better and have fewer out of wedlock births. But this did not change their genetics and as soon as the societal pressure was released, blacks reverted to type. Conditions in Africa did not favor delayed marriage and monogamy – if they had behaved like Englishmen they would have gone extinct. In order to have anyone survive to the next generation you had to have lots of kids starting very early so that 1 or 2 might survive to adulthood. It was natural that a successful man would have many wives just as he owned many heads of cattle. To this day, having 1 wife makes no sense to Africans, even to those with Western educations like Obama’s father or the President of S. Africa. It would be like me trying to explain to you why it is somehow moral and proper than you own only 1 shirt which you have to wear for your entire life. 4 generations of stable family formation is not going to undo 100,000 years of divergent evolution.

  193. Corvinus says:
    @neutral

    “But will they still blame whites in the future when whites no longer exist (which is a very likely future)…”

    What do you exactly mean “when whites no longer exist”? Please elaborate.

  194. Corvinus says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    “As Michael Levin explained, there is nothing dysfunctional about black behavior. It’s exactly what you’d expect of such a population let loose in a Western society.”

    In the same manner that white colonists ran roughshod over African and Asian societies due to their greed for mammon in the name of civilization?

    “Yes, blacks were better behaved decades ago. But we put more straits on their jackets at the time.”

    Through slavery and Jim Crow. Fortunately, those jackets were ripped off.

  195. George says:
    @Harry Baldwin

    The Esquire article reports the IQs of people who lived way before there were IQ tests and of people who probably never had their IQs measured. Leonardo da Vinci was a smart guy, but exactly how he would do on those matrix things in the IQ test, who knows? Is it possible that Leonardo da Vinci would not have scored gigantic on an IQ test but just worked hard from the time he was a kid?

  196. jill says:

    “Traditional masculinity ideology has been shown to limit males’ psychological development, constrain their behavior, result in gender role strain and gender role conflict and negatively influence mental health and physical health,” the report warns.

    The new “Guidelines for the Psychological Practice with Boys and Men” defines “masculinity ideology” as “a particular constellation of standards that have held sway over large segments of the population, including: anti-femininity, achievement, eschewal of the appearance of weakness, and adventure, risk, and violence.” The report also links this ideology to homophobia, bullying and sexual harassment.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/american-psychological-association-links-masculinity-ideology-homophobia-misogyny-n956416

    https://www.apa.org/about/policy/boys-men-practice-guidelines.pdf

  197. @SimpleSong

    Lots of genetic traits do not follow Gaussians.

    The math behind Normal (Gaussian) distributions are determined by taking the means of samples of a population, not the actual data points themselves.

    You will not get a bimodal distribution as you describe by looking at the means of samples of the gorilla population. It will be (by definition) Gaussian. The bigger the sample sizes, the more Gaussian it will appear as the outliers have smaller weight in the mean.

  198. Given that it clear that IQ is hardly the primary determinant of living a successful life, depending on how one measures success, and it is definitely not by one’s IQ. Then these debates are but for the tedious attempts to justify violations of ethics, or the constitution against a particular population, in this case blacks.

    And to that end — IQ is moot. Because one need not have a high IQ to be a successful member of society. And since that is the case, all one need do is consider whether the society at large engaged in practices against the black population that denied them access that was available to other citizens.

    The other fallacious reasoning here rests on a failure to define or codify what constitutes success and what constitutes dysfunction. Not only are the arguments here loaded, assuming the conclusion to the advance, but it also circular in that not having “X” IQ is itself considered a dysfunction, when clearly IQ has no power hold on the various dysfunctions that accompany the human experience —

    if one could quantify and agree as to what constitutes dysfunction.

    ————————–

    Hence the practice of social engineering self fulfilling prophecies in which those with power engage in practices to reinforce their notions about said group — in this case not based on actual IQ, but the association of IQ to skin color. Which leads to all manner of peculiar assumptions — that don’t require evidence of behavior, but can and are assumed based on the superficial. The impact on such ethical understandings such as reasonable doubt are then lowered based not on the evidence, but on the ethos of skin color, and inaccurate or immaterial links to IQ.

  199. @Jack D

    I would be curious to know what you know about the marital traditions and practices of more than two hundred black societies across the continent of Africa . . .

    And even more curious how you conclude that those societies went extinct as result.

  200. @Jack D

    Ohhh good grief,

    polygamy is a universal practice. And as such it was generally a practice among the wealthy and the elites (royalty) — hardly a unique african experience.

    The practice of large families as you press is neither unique to African or anyone else.

    Conditions in Africa — do pray tell:

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/africa-physical-geography/

    • Replies: @Jack D
  201. @SporadicMyrmidon

    > Ignoring culture in favor of IQ seems to grievously miss the point.

    Oh yes. This 1000X. Intelligence is as intelligence does. IQ is only a rough measure of potential but does not have intrinsic value.

    > has anyone ever made the case that IQ, or “g factor”

    Was just thinking about this. I would be you could come up with some score that was based entirely upon physical characteristics that could closely approximate IQ. Something to the effect of:

    brain volume * factor1 + synapses per neuron * factor2 + nerve conduction velocity * factor3 + …

    You would probably find hundreds of relevant factors. And then each factor is probably influenced by tens or hundreds of genes. Of course, easier to just give a test.

  202. Lagertha says:
    @Anon

    In the end, everything is personal.

  203. @Reg Cæsar

    Go tell the Great Father to send us no more bald men. I never saw a bald-headed man who was not a liar.– Chief Spotted Tail

    The Crow knew that Custer would lose the little big battle because he had cut off his long locks before … and revealed incipient baldness!

    Remember Samson, men.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  204. @anonymous coward

    Four generations and your problem will be solved.

    The fact that a working, time-tested solution is ignored means that deliberate malice is in play, not ignorance or a lack of technology.

    Sorry to say that I agree mostly with JackD.

    Stable, disciplined personal behavior is the consequence of intelligence and its correlated personality traits rather than the cause of it.

    The outcomes of self-destructive, self-defeating behavior often come as a surprise to the people who engage in it. They’re just not intelligent and “wired” enough to think out the second and third order effects of doing dumb stuff. The future is not well in mind.

  205. lhtness says:
    @Arclight

    They are surely opposed to genetic explanations for disparities. But they are frequently also opposed to environmental ones. See how they respond to suggestions that black problems stem from the out-of-wedlock rate, or black culture’s failure to put a strong emphasis on education.

    The result is a situation where we are constantly reminded of racial disparities, but both nature and nurture are forbidden as possible explanations. That really ought to be a hint to people that someone is wrong.

  206. Svigor says:

    Is Big Tech running a psyop to make gullible Westerners think Uighurs are Asiatics?

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=uighur

    Because those are Asiatics. A blend of Mongoloid and Turkic stock. Like most of Central Asia.

    Not “whites.”

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Reg Cæsar
  207. Svigor says:

    My bad, Uighur comment was meant for Uighur thread.

  208. Jack D says:
    @EliteCommInc.

    polygamy is a universal practice.

    Well, not quite. It’s universal pretty much everywhere EXCEPT in the West and in places that have adopted Western customs. And so is poverty and societal dysfunction and disease. Is it a coincidence that the only place that practiced monogamy was also the place that first experienced the scientific and industrial revolutions?

    Sure Africa is a hell of a big place with many different cultures, but it seems like all Africans have some things in common. For example, every African country, even countries in the West (the Caribbean) that are populated by Africans, has a high homicide rate compared to Western Europe.

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
  209. Coag says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Griffe is the correct translation of the original Latin unguis which is claw. “Paw” is an entirely acceptable Anglicization of the saying.

  210. @Jack D

    There’s a reason that polygamy was outlawed in the west —-

    Christianity. But until it was outlawed — it was neither an uncommon practice nor was it illegal or immoral.

    We have had this discussion on international homicide rates. And you are wrong. But I would grant that the African states have not fully recovered from the power vaccums of colonial rule and civil unrest remains an in issue among some regions which contributes the rate of violent death.

    • Replies: @GermanReader2
  211. @megabar

    A golf tournament result is a function of many independent outcomes, for which the players’ abilities are probably mostly Gaussian. A player who is just slightly better than his peers will have a huge advantage in winning a tournament which is comprised of ~280 independent events.

    That’s a good point. I guess that’s another domain — where the output is not based on a continuum but rather on meeting an “all or nothing” threshold established somewhere at one tail of the Gaussian (Normal) distribution. Sports is arguably a special case, however, because “winning” is the product of entirely arbitrary rules invented for the game. But other, more natural, systems undoubtedly include that characteristic as well.

    One interesting (to me anyway) aspect of a bright-line “winning-losing” cut off, is that it doesn’t necessarily favor the “best” athlete — at least if that term is defined as the person who is most consistently excellent. Rather, it favors the person who can occasionally be *super-excellent.*

    For example, if someone were to add up the career scores of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, they would probably be statistically identical. And perhaps Mickelson would actually have shot a better score, if you looked at his career as one long game. But Tiger managed to be super-excellent often enough to win twice as many tournaments as Mickelson.

    But the same criterion would not apply to, say, a financial advisor who was able to achieve “super-excellent” returns 10% of the time but lost all your money the other 90% of the time.

    So I guess the lesson is that “winning” (and the a priori odds of doing so), are just an artifact of how you define the game.

    • Replies: @megabar
  212. res says:
    @gregor

    I don’t know. One possibility is there is some kind of INT* – reading – IQ link.

    The page I linked to looked like a survey so selection bias may be a problem.

    More on this:
    https://personalityjunkie.com/09/openness-myers-briggs-mbti-intuition-big-five-iq-correlations/
    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-relation-between-IQ-and-the-big-five-personality-traits

  213. res says:
    @Corvinus

    Wow. Corvinus, you and I agree on something. Carry on.

    It is interesting to speculate what positions or statements would get the most or least agreement from the iSteve commentariat.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  214. CJ says:
    @Mungerite

    Bezos is going the other way. He’s been lifting and staying in shape and banging hot chicks.

  215. Anon[330] • Disclaimer says:
    @Stan d Mute

    They’re loud, vulgar, gaudy, annoying, incredibly insecure, etc, but compared to our negroes we just love ‘em to death. And they do make the best coney dogs anywhere..

    Yeah, to understand Taleb, you have to consider his cultural personality. Emotions, often unchecked, override reason and logic. This is true of Jews with excess chutzpah too. You have to know their mindset before you really understand their minds.
    It’s like Tucker Carlson said he often felt confounded in the presence of Robert Kagan. Kagan’s a smart and erudite guy, so one would think someone like that would be reflective and thoughtful. But no, too many like him get all boorish about certain matters, esp pertaining to Jewish power and advantage, with which their egos and pride are wedded.

    Some people have smaller personalities and bigger minds.
    Some have bigger personalities and smaller minds.
    Big minds with small personalities tend to be more rational, but they lack direction because reason is ‘adirectional’. Reason doesn’t favor one agenda over another. It tries to understand both sides, all sides. Reason lacks emotions or passion and is ‘blind’ as judge and jury.
    It is passion(love, hate, pride, paranoia, greed, resentment, envy, etc) that pushes reason in a certain direction.
    Big personalities with small minds do have a sense of direction, but they fail to see the big picture cuz they’re dumb. It’s just me, me, me, and such people burn out fast.
    And then, there are big personalities with big minds. Now, which guides which? The big mind or the big personality? It’s the latter because the mind, no matter how capable, is ‘adirectional’ and neutral(and objective in analysis of all things), whereas personality is about ego and passion.
    This is why big personality with big mind will push around small personality with big mind. This is why Jews won out over wasps. Wasp culture was about repressing emotions, and Wasps may have been bred to be reserved than temperamental(a trait that was sent to the gallows for bad manners). Also, small personalities with big minds are drawn to big personalities with big minds. Because they lack passion of their own, they latch onto the impassioned egotism of others. It’s why Albert Speer was drawn to Hitler, why Zhou En-Lai was drawn to Mao. It’s why cucks like Romney and Ryan are drawn to Jews with big big personalities.
    The key difference between big personalities with big minds and big personalities with small minds is that the former see the big picture. They realize that me, me, me isn’t enough for sustained greatness. It must be we, we, we. So, while Nicky Santoro — big personality but small mind — in CASINO can’t think beyond me, me, me, the Jewish moguls who eventually took over Las Vegas had a sense of we, we, we. We Jews working together. After all, individuals don’t last forever, but the Tribe can last a long long time.

    Of course, there are white goyim with big personalities and reasonably big minds. Trump is such a person, and that’s why Jews fear him and what he stands for. He has White Chutzpah though, to be sure, he can’t do much with it as he is hemmed in by all sides by various chess moves. Still, his ego and passion are big enough that he doesn’t need to latch onto Jewish ego to feel pride and show bravado. Jews don’t fear the White Negro, but they fear the White Jew, the Goy with chutzpah to match that of Jews.

    Taleb is obviously smart, but he is a big personality, and his egotism drives his reason… sometimes very stupidly, as with the recent IQ controversy. But then, his perspective on IQ is different from our own. We tend to see IQ issue as breaking the PC ice so that truth can be told. We see the IQ issue as battering ram against the Establishment and its PC dogma.
    In contrast, Taleb sees IQ testing as the tool of the IYI establishment to keep the power and pat themselves on the back as the ‘best and the brightest’. How many times have we been told that Obama Administration had the Most Qualified people or that Hillary is the ‘most qualified’ candidate that ran for president? So, he considers his anti-IQ position as anti-Establishmentarian. But he failed to be more measured on the matter because it became so personal(and because he made it so personal).

    He comes from a part of the world and gene pool where people tend to be Infuriating. A diverse world of many religions, sects, ethnic groups, clans, and etc. Even within the same ethnic group, it was often more a matter of kinship than shared identity. So, no one got anywhere in such a world without the personality of a haggler or bully. In a diverse world, one has to be willing to raise his voice sometimes to be heard. You have to hustle and tug harder to get ‘what is mine’. In a homogeneous trust-society, people believe that ‘what is mine’ will come their way in time if they wait with trust and patience. In a diverse world, you get nothing unless you make a fuss, and Taleb sure knows how to make a fuss.
    The extreme opposite of Taleb’s culture of Infuriating-ness is the Inscrutable-ness of the Japanese who, even when upset and angry, try not to express their real feelings lest doing so upset the social order. In between Far East personality and Near East personality is the culture of Indecision of the Anglos. Anglos aren’t as restrained as the Japanese but aren’t really keen on speaking their minds because it might be bad manners and form. So, there’s a ironic play between repression and expression. Much is intimated and hinted but never really laid out.
    In contrast, the culture of ‘infuriation’ is never afraid to speak one’s mind though it doesn’t necessarily mean honesty or truth. It’s more like expression of ego and personal pride than well-reasoned thought. (There is the Insane cultural personality of blacks, but that belongs in a world of its own.) But ‘Infuriation’ is often a ploy. It can be personal but can also be a game of how far you can push before being pushed back. So, people of this culture can switch emotions at a heartbeat. They can go from trying to slit your throat to hugging you as best-friends-forever.

    Anyway, the essence of Taleb’s personality can be seen in the video below: People from that part of the world feel and act like that. Too often in the West, people try to understand others by their stated ideas. It’s the Cult of Reason and Enlightenment, the notion that humans are, above all, thinking beings with reason.
    More often than not, knowing their personality(individual and/or cultural) hits closer to the mark of what they are really about. If one really wants to understand people like Max Boot, Robert Kagan, and Victoria Nuland, one should first study their cultural personality than their stated reasons. More often than not, their reason follows their passion than vice versa. In THE GODFATHER, it’s not just about conflict of abilities but personalities.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  216. @stillCARealist

    The Crow knew…

    For a second there, I thought you meant Corvinus. Of course, I now realize it’s Sheryl.

  217. @res

    Wow. Corvinus, you and I agree on something. Carry on.

    Even a blind crow finds a kernel now and then.

  218. utu says:
    @Calvin X Hobbes

    “For any continuous random variable, you can do a monotone re-scaling so that it’s normal in the new scale.” – Not exactly. Not any. The original pdf(x) must have only one local maximum.

  219. CJ says:
    @Kratoklastes

    From Steve’s explanation:

    His pseudonym is drawn from an anecdote about a set of cutting edge math problems proposed by Johann Bernoulli in 1696. An anonymous correspondent solved them in a single night. Bernoulli, however, had little doubt regarding the identity of this seemingly mysterious figure:

    ▲▼ “tanquam ex ungue leonem” (we recognize the lion by his claw).

  220. @Mr McKenna

    About one in twenty bald guys pulls it off with any appeal.

    The ratio might be similar for women. Persis could pull it off (pardon the expression), but Sinead, I don’t think so…



    BTW, Miss Khambatta died of a heart attack at 49. How masculine can you get?

  221. Corvinus says:
    @Jack D

    “For a couple of generations leading up to the 1950s, blacks were under pressure from American
    society to behave better and have fewer out of wedlock births.”

    Actually, it wasn’t a “couple of generations”. It has been since their enslavement and subsequent freedom from the bonds of the “peculiar institution” that blacks, under their own individual pressure as well as their community, to “behave”.

    “Conditions in Africa did not favor delayed marriage and monogamy – if they had behaved like Englishmen they would have gone extinct.”

    Citations are needed here.

    “It would be like me trying to explain to you why it is somehow moral and proper than you own only 1 shirt which you have to wear for your entire life. 4 generations of stable family formation is not going to undo 100,000 years of divergent evolution.”

    Please educate yourself.

    http://www.theperspective.org/polygyny.html

    • Replies: @Coag
    , @Reg Cæsar
  222. Hail says: • Website
    @Svigor

    Is Big Tech running a psyop to make gullible Westerners think Uighurs are Asiatics?

    Using the Sailer Test of investigating google-suggestions, I find for certain phrases, I find the top google suggestion for “Uighurs are” to be:

    uighurs are terrorists

    If you are right, Google’s political commissars haven’t gotten the memo yet.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  223. Coag says:
    @Corvinus

    You ask for citations but you provide totally unsupported and unscientific opinions in your article. Your link claims polygyny was instituted in Africa because the ratio of women to men was 10 to 1? Even if we are generous, and indulge the Africans their characteristic innumeracy and make provision for a blatant miscounting, and further allow that in premodern times young African men may have killed each other at rates similar to that of modern inner cities, it would still be nigh impossible that the gender ratio in traditional African populations was 10:1 as your BS article claims.

  224. megabar says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    > Rather, it favors the person who can occasionally be *super-excellent.*

    I agree this is the better approach for golf, since there’s no win-loss record. Though I’m not sure “golf ability” comes in this flavor. At least, it’s hard to distinguish from Gaussian ability, with randomness creating some golfers who appear “peaky”. John Daly would be the poster boy for this, though, if it is true — I guess any golfer with a tendency to blow up could be peaky.

    But for example, if you’re a baseball team, you might structure your strategy differently depending on whether you are talented or not talented. If you are not talented, you might want to be as good as you can be (best pitcher, lineup, relievers) on say, every other game, because your average talent level might cause you to lose against other team’s average talent most games. Or perhaps more intuitively, if you’re a bad football team, you want to keep the clock moving so the game has fewer plays — fewer plays means more randomness, which gives a bad team a better shot. Alternatively, you may want to try lots of high risk plays, such as Hail Marys, trick plays, and safety blitzes.

    > For example, if someone were to add up the career scores of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, they would probably be statistically identical.

    Interesting idea, but from what I can tell (in 5 minutes of Googling), this isn’t true. Here’s some pages with some scoring averages by year for Tiger, Phil, and Justin Leonard (who’s a tier down from them). Many of the scores are blanked out since I’m not a member, but it seems like in Tiger’s best years he averaged about 68-69, Phil was right around 70, and Justin is just a wee bit higher at 70-71. Now, this still doesn’t mean it’s impossible for one of these guys to be “spiky”, but the data is consistent with a Gaussian ability that turns into a power law for victories.

    https://www.golfstats.com/search/?yr=&tournament=&career=1&player=Tiger+Woods&tour=&submit=go
    https://www.golfstats.com/search/?yr=&tournament=&career=1&player=Phil+Mickelson&tour=&submit=go
    https://www.golfstats.com/search/?yr=&tournament=&career=1&player=Justin+Leonard&tour=&submit=go

    > But the same criterion would not apply to, say, a financial advisor

    Yes, this is key insight. The way you analyze and optimize something depends on the game you’re playing. For example, when analyzing how to construct a nation, there very well may be important threshold effects. I.e. does the average productivity of its citizens lead to accumulation of capital and infrastructure at a given standard of living, or does it run a deficit?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  225. @Boswald Bollocksworth

    One of the problems in this “debate” is that people are not actually addressing what Taleb has said, while another problem is that Taleb seems to have said different things. So, for example, in one place Taleb said that IQ either isn’t real or if it is, it isn’t something significant. This latter leaves open the possibility that IQ is normally distributed while “intelligence/ability” is not.

  226. @Jack D

    Without her fake boobs, fake lips, and fake eye lashes, Sanchez would look like a man. The first time Bezos sees her without makeup and her hsir done up, he’s going to realize his mistake.

    The world is filled with high-priced call girls who are way, way hotter than this gold digger and a roll in the hay for $10000 is way, way cheaper than a lifetime of regret for $70000000000.

  227. @megabar

    Thanks. For some reason, I couldn’t find a career scoring average for either Tiger or Phil.

    But Tiger has won 9 Vardon and 9 Byron Nelson trophies for lowest annual scoring average and Phil hasn’t won any.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vardon_Trophy

    Tiger from 1999-2008 was the best decade any golfer ever enjoyed.

    And keep in mind that Tiger didn’t have a lot of fluke wins in major tournaments, he more often cruised home on Sunday with a big lead. E.g., when he won 3 majors in 2000, Tiger had one hard fought victory (PGA), but won US Open by 15 strokes and British Open by 8 strokes.

    Maybe Tiger’s 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines (his last major) was a fluke due to the greatest putting of all time, with his tee to green game being off due to his having a broken leg.

    • Replies: @megabar
  228. @Alfa158

    When he says menial jobs, I think he means something like working as a teacher at a public high school, not working as a janitor.

    However, there are examples of high IQ working in truly menial jobs, as the below linked Esquire article makes clear. One thing Taleb fails to take into account is that preferences may change with IQ. It makes intuitive sense that lower and average intelligence people would have more convergent preferences.

  229. megabar says:
    @Steve Sailer

    > But Tiger has won 9 Vardon and 9 Byron Nelson trophies for lowest annual scoring average and Phil hasn’t won any.

    There’s no doubt that Tiger was the best I ever saw. I don’t begrudge him the accolades in the slightest, since wins are the metric that we care about. It’s just that derived stats, like wins, exaggerate the degree of the raw difference in ability between players.

    > [Tiger] more often cruised home on Sunday with a big lead.

    I read once that in a typical golf tourney, a player’s actions really generate a scoring window of about 7 strokes (this is from memory, so the “7” might be wrong). Where in the window they actually score depends entirely on luck. For example, you can hit a putt exactly the same way multiple times from the exact same location, and sometimes it’ll go in and sometimes it won’t, due to the orientation of some grass blades, the ball hopping, the wind, etc. So, in the normal case, most players win partly because they got lucky that week, in addition to great play.

    Tiger, at his best, did not need any luck.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  230. @Harry Baldwin

    Langan and his high-IQ girlfriend LoSasso are Trump supporters, which is probably more evidence that politics is about identity and personality, not rationality.

    I’d like to see Trump nominate LoSasso to replace Ginsburg. What fun.

  231. jim jones says:
    @J.Ross

    There is a push here in the UK for a tax on meat to discourage consumption.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  232. @megabar

    I finally figured out what Tiger would have wound up doing if he hadn’t been a golfer. He’d be an affluent Newport Beach accountant who got into real estate and did well for himself and is now paying a _lot_ of alimony.

    He’s the best decision maker I’ve ever seen on a golf course. Off the course, however …

  233. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Hail

    What! A Google search suggestion that sounds like it came straight from Beijing! But heavens, how could such an event possibly have transpired?

  234. Jack D says:
    @Anonymous

    If Lauren Sanchez is a man, then God please make me gay!

  235. Jack D says:
    @jim jones

    In coming decades you are going to see “climate change” used as an excuse to try to force everyone to live like a bicycle riding, vegan hippie. The Left has not had any luck getting people to voluntarily adopt this lifestyle so they want to force people into it and “climate change” is a perfect pretext.

    • Agree: GermanReader2
  236. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Spangel

    Good comment and very true.

    That IQ is largely heritable is a pretty scary thing to accept for a society so steeped in the principle that all men are created equal.

    And I completely agree that these results can be scary for a lot of folks, in particular those groups who find themselves on the left side of the Bell curve.

    If I were a black individual I would not find this research welcome.

  237. @Jack D

    Really, marriage is the cure for stupidity?

    Really.

    Who knew?

    Literally everyone, before we went mad and blinded ourselves with the promise of cheap, degrading sex.

    It might be the cure for black bad behavior (not really – see below), but not for stupidity.

    It’s the opposite. Smart people don’t behave well. (See the British or the Chinese.) The only cure for stupidity is eugenics over many generations, and the only way to get eugenics over many generations is the three-step monogamy plan I already posted.

  238. @Svigor

    Uighurs wobble but they don’t fall down.

  239. @Jack D

    Conditions in Africa did not favor delayed marriage and monogamy – if they had behaved like Englishmen they would have gone extinct.

    Englishmen are almost extinct in Africa now.

  240. @Corvinus

    Actually, it wasn’t a “couple of generations”. It has been since their enslavement and subsequent freedom from the bonds of the “peculiar institution” that blacks, under their own individual pressure as well as their community, to “behave”.

    In other words, what are civilized norms to the Anglo-Saxon and his continental cousins, are “enslavement” and “Jim Crow” to blacks.

    Thanks for making our case for us!

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  241. @EliteCommInc.

    How long do the African states still need to recover from colonial rule? They have had independence for more than half a century. You do not see that level of dysfunction in Asian countries that are former colonies.

  242. @Kratoklastes

    It’s a pun on Gulf of Lion (French: golfe du Lion, Spanish: golfo de León, Italian: Golfo del Leone, Occitan: golf del/dau Leon, Catalan: golf del Lleó, Medieval Latin: sinus Leonis, mare Leonis)

  243. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Svigor

    There ARE some very capable women out there who can easily handle a man in a physical combat.

    But they have to be trained to a high level unless they are Amazons.

    A woman with a black belt in Jiu Jitsu would destroy the vast majority men in a physical exchange.

    • Replies: @bomag
    , @Svigor
  244. @GermanReader2

    I have no idea. That is their issue and their concern.

    Germans have been killing each other and anyone else who got in their way since the first century. But to be fair, let’s take German history from 1200 AD – 2019. 800 years — sounds reasonable.

  245. @GermanReader2

    This is hard comment and it’s a frustrating truth. What European states and colonists did in Asia is a stroll in the park compared to what was done on the continent of Africa.

    I hate to admit it because I enjoy Europe, like Europeans, but African polity towards the african civilizations — a trip to the middle ages squared, in my view.

  246. bomag says:
    @obwandiyag

    He came on here with his experience as an analyst, not a trader.

    The problem was empirical, with bad inputs being put into the models in the first place.

    Utterly true and marks him as someone who knows what’s what more than most.

  247. bomag says:
    @lavoisier

    There ARE some very capable women out there who can easily handle a man in a physical combat.

    Overlapping bell curves; something that has little resonance in popular consciousness.

    Some women can beat up some men, but it is so few that one should not base any policy upon that premise.

  248. Corvinus says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    “Englishmen are almost extinct in Africa now.”

    As are different species of animals and plant life due to their colonial exploits.

    “In other words, what are civilized norms to the Anglo-Saxon and his continental cousins…”

    You mean like refusing to pick their own cotton, forcing themselves sexually upon native women, jackbooting infants, and pillaging and plundering?

    “Thanks for making our case for us!”

    Who is this “our” and “us”? Be specific rather than your vague self.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  249. @Anon

    I used my allocation of “agree” for the moment. Ron needs to be less stingy with these things.

    Great observations.

  250. bomag says:
    @megabar

    If he is, in fact, more realistic than that, I’d love to have an honest, off-the-record chat with him (or any other obviously intelligent person who’s both socially left and a realist)

    Plenty out there, but they are always mindful that the boot could well be coming for their face.

    Better to judge them by their actions. Diversity; AA; blank slatism is for other people. They’ll preach about it, but dodge the consequences; that’s kind of the point of power: exemption from the rules others have to follow.

    • Replies: @megabar
  251. Hail says: • Website
    @GermanReader2

    How long do the African states still need to recover from colonial rule?

    Look to the handful African success stories and note what they are doing right, versus what the majority are doing wrong.

    What are Black Africa’s greatest success stories for the pasty forty years? For a long time people considered Botswana to be Black Africa’s best performer; what have they done right?

    One thing that occurs to me is that they did NOT kill / chase away their Whites like what befell Rhodesia, their eastern neighbor. It looks like the White population in Botswana in 2019 is in absolute terms much higher, and also relatively higher, than it was in the 1980s.

    ________________________

    Botswana
    Population total: 2,250,000 (2018), up from 600,000 in the early 1970s;
    Fertility: “Botswana has experienced one of the most rapid declines in fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. The total fertility rate has fallen from more than 5 children per woman in the mid 1980s to approximately 2.4 in 2013”;
    Religion: primarily Christian (at least 12 to 1 Christian:Animist split), and Christians split 10:1 Protestant; no Muslims;
    Ethnic stock: Large Bantu-Negroid/Congoid majority [90%]; significant White minority at 4% (primary language, Afrikaans); also 3% Khoisan-Hottentot-Capoid, of which one-fifth are still hunter-gatherers (“San“); Bantu-majority has likely absorbed some low level Khoisan admixture since he Bantu Expansion to this far south, as evidenced by the use of some characteristically-Khoisan ‘clicks’ in the main Bantu language of Botswana;
    Net recipient of migrants (net +5,000 to +10,000 per year), thought to primarily be illegal-migrant Zimbabweans
    – Principal city and capital is Gaborone, on South African border; its metro area possibly has 500,000 people by late 2010s, 20%+ of national population;
    Life expectancy: Hit 63 in the early 2010s and rising;
    Literacy: 89%, no gender split (cf. above, No Muslims);
    GDP per capita at PPP: $17,000 (2017 est.), just above China and Brazil, just below Thailand, Belarus, and Mexico;
    – “Botswana ranks as one of the least corrupt and best places to do business in sub-Saharan Africa”;
    Relative economic performance: Substantially outperformed African average in 1970s to 1990s; following South African decline, equalled or surpassed South Africa by the late 1990s;
    – Diamond trade a long mainstay of the economy;
    Employment split: 2% agriculture, 28% industry, 70% services;
    – low inflation;
    – currency stable;
    – diverse export partners (Belgium [20%], India [13%], UAE [12%], Sputh Africa [12%], Singapore [9%]…); imports mainly from South Africa [66%];
    – 66% of population with electricity [75% in urban areas] (2013);
    – 40% Internet usage rate by mid 2016.

    Botswana Problems:
    – “Today Botswana has the third highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in the world at approximately 22%, however comprehensive and effective treatment programs have reduced HIV/AIDS-related deaths”;
    – Unemployment thought to be 20%+;
    – Failed to robustly recover from 2008 global downturn.

  252. Taleb is scornful of the assumptions that IQ tests can be trustworthy at the right tails—is a person who scores 160 (99.99th percentile) more likely to succeed in a moneymaking career than a person who scores 145 (99.7th percentile)?

    I don’t know if this is relevant, but I’ve often heard it said that IQ tests are more accurate at the lower end of the scale than at the higher end, having been originally designed to measure mental retardation rather than genius. Is that true? Or is it just another ‘people say’?

  253. @Corvinus

    As are different species of animals and plant life due to their colonial exploits.

    Such as medicine and sanitation. How will elephants, giraffes, and rhinos fare with four billion human neighbors? What about their affordable housing.

  254. megabar says:
    @bomag

    > Plenty out there, but they are always mindful that the boot could well be coming for their face.

    Yet there is a difference between toeing the line and moving it.

    Surely, Gates is in the latter group. I’m curious about someone intelligent who pushes the agenda more than they need to, but yet is a realist. I am positive that these people must exist, and some must care about their posterity, and I’m just curious how they think this is all going to play out, and why they do what they do.

  255. GW says:

    The way to compare golfers is by using strokes gained against other golfers. You get means, standard deviations, and a bell curve. Of course the trick is adjusting scores based on the field since each tournament has its own level of competition, but this can be done.

    Check out datagolf.ca for a thorough and live look at who the best current golfers are (and how much better they are than others). It also has quite a bit of recent historical data as well (from 2004).

    Focusing on majors, Mickelson has been a bit unfortunate to not have won more. His 2016 British Open runner-up finish was 11 strokes clear of third, with the only reason him not winning being the even more right-tailed performance of Hebron Stenson. He also had a very good 2004 US Open, one of the six times he finished second in that major.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  256. @GW

    I followed Mickelson around a lot at the 2004 US Open and he was extremely good, but a double bogey at the 71st hole did him in.

  257. Griffe means claw, not paw.

    The La Griffe du Lion moniker could be related to this La Fontaine fable:

    THE LION’S COURT.

    His lion majesty would know, one day,
    What bestial tribes were subject to his sway.
    He therefore gave his vassals all,
    By deputies a call,
    Despatching everywhere
    A written circular,
    Which bore his seal, and did import
    His majesty would hold his court
    A month most splendidly;–
    A feast would open his levee,
    Which done, Sir Jocko’s sleight
    Would give the court delight.
    By such sublime magnificence
    The king would show his power immense.

    Now were they gather’d all
    Within the royal hall.–
    And such a hall! The charnel scent
    Would make the strongest nerves relent.
    The bear put up his paw to close
    The double access of his nose.
    The act had better been omitted;
    His throne at once the monarch quitted,
    And sent to Pluto’s court the bear,
    To show his delicacy there.
    The ape approved the cruel deed,
    A thorough flatterer by breed.
    He praised the prince’s wrath and claws,
    He praised the odour and its cause.
    Judged by the fragrance of that cave,
    The amber of the Baltic wave,
    The rose, the pink, the hawthorn bank,
    Might with the vulgar garlic rank.
    The mark his flattery overshot,
    And made him share poor Bruin’s lot;
    This lion playing in his way,
    The part of Don Caligula.
    The fox approach’d. ‘Now,’ said the king,
    ‘Apply your nostrils to this thing,
    And let me hear, without disguise,
    The judgment of a beast so wise.’
    The fox replied, ‘Your Majesty will please
    Excuse’–and here he took good care to sneeze;–
    ‘Afflicted with a dreadful cold,
    Your majesty need not be told:
    My sense of smell is mostly gone.’

    From danger thus withdrawn,
    He teaches us the while,
    That one, to gain the smile
    Of kings, must hold the middle place
    ‘Twixt blunt rebuke and fulsome praise;
    And sometimes use with easy grace,
    The language of the Norman race.

    The Normans are proverbial among the French for the oracular noncommittal of their responses.–Un Normand, says the proverb, a son dit et son détit.–Translator.

  258. Svigor says:
    @lavoisier

    I have to disagree. I trained in an early form of MMA (aikido, judo, jiu-jitsu) for about 4 years in the nineties. So I have at least some idea of what a black belt in JJ can do. Got to orange belt, iirc.

    And the average man would destroy the average BB-holding woman. Women just don’t have the strength, coordination, or explosiveness to handle men.

    Weapons. Those are a woman’s only hope. Which makes it all the sadder how much snake oil MA trainers are selling to women.

    I’m an out-of-shape 6’2″ huwhite male in his forties, who’s had a fair amount of training (some of it is gone when you stop practicing, but a lot of it is forever). There is literally no such thing as a typical, 5’6″ huwhite woman who I couldn’t manhandle. “Typical” as in, “not jacked/roided all to hell.” Obviously I’m on the large side, but I doubt there are many 5’10” huwhite men who couldn’t say the same. This isn’t bragging (it’s risible to even consider this bragging), it’s just reality.

    • Replies: @Svigor
    , @lavoisier
  259. Svigor says:
    @Svigor

    To elaborate, EMA types tend to be spergy and underestimate “natural skill.” I.e., they tend to overestimate the skill/training advantage, and/or underestimate the fighting instinct of the average male. A LOT of the shit that EMA types think will work in a real street fighting situation, won’t. Granted, this tends to vary widely by school (Aikido was the worst IME, Judo intermediate, while Jiu-Jitsu was the most realistic) and studio.

  260. Svigor says:

    A missive for the ladies, lest you think I’m only interested in black-pilling you:

    1. The mental aspect of self-defense is most important. Work through your issues; decide that you’d rather kill than be killed. I mean really decide.

    2. Learn situational awareness. When you’re out-of-doors, assess everyone. Make it a game. What is that guy doing/thinking? Read up on the topic. Be ready to tell men not to approach you, to stop where they are, etc.

    3. Buy two knives. Keep one on your waist, not in your purse. I recommend the Kershaw Leek. It’s small and assisted-opening. You want 2 in case 1 is confiscated/lost/etc. Kershaw is great on customer service and will repair/refurbish for free. The TL;DR on knife-fighting is lead with your weak hand, keep your strong/knife-hand back so you don’t get disarmed. When you plunge the knife in, don’t pull it out; walk it through flesh, causing maximum damage.

    4. Buy two guns (again, in case 1 is lost/taken). You want at least 9mm. I recommend the Ruger LC9/EC9 but I’m no expert. Do your own reading and check out any prospective buy at a gun shop to make sure it’s a good fit.

  261. Svigor says:

    5. Get over any aversion to making a scene. Fuck decorum. First sign of trouble, you should be screaming bloody murder. “Aiiiiyeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!” Call in the cavalry early and often. Consider carrying a whistle. It isn’t as good as screaming “RRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPEEE!!!!” at the top of your lungs, over and over, but it’s better than nothing.

  262. Svigor says:

    6. This should go without saying, but it’s the current year, so it doesn’t:

    Don’t be THOT. Don’t invite trouble. Don’t instigate. Don’t put men up to trouble. Don’t create drama. Act like an adult. Don’t put yourself into vulnerable positions. If anything, work to defuse conflict, rather than create it.

    The most essential aspect of self-defense is to avoid situations where you may need to defend yourself.

  263. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Svigor

    Disagree Svigor.

    A woman trained in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to a high level will obliterate 99.99% of men.

    Even an average sized woman with a high level of skill will do so. Once she takes the man down with a simple take down maneuver any strength advantage that they may or may not possess is gone–immediately.

    Now with other martial arts that do not really train someone to fight on the ground you are probably right. I would not bet on the woman with a black belt in karate to defeat an above average male opponent.

    But in jiu jitsu or sambo the man would be in big trouble once his ass landed on the ground. Take the legs out and the fight takes on a totally different dimension. The power that comes from the legs is lost and skill becomes ascendant.

    Most men vastly overestimate their physical prowess and skill level.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  264. @lavoisier

    “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson

    • Replies: @lavoisier
  265. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Steve Sailer

    They are trained in learning to avoid that punch and take down their opponent.

    And very few men can punch like Mike Tyson.

  266. Svigor says:
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    The answer, of course, is “neither.”

    It’s that old whore, Gaia, AKA Mother Nature, who’s to blame.

    Heresy.

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