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The Ferguson Effect Exists in Ferguson
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The Ferguson Effect (increased number of homicides after a Black Lives Matter victory over cops in a town), which was brought to national attention by Heather Mac Donald, has been much denied by Respectable Opinion. But you can see it in the data, including in Ferguson, MO.

Commenter Mike Sylwester writes:

Crime in the city of Ferguson, Missouri, has risen significantly since police officer Darren Wilson was falsely accused of murdering Michael Brown there in August 2014. Crime in Ferguson — population 20,789 — rose significantly more than in other US cities of similar size.

Crime rates in Ferguson declined in 2017 except for the category murders and non-negligent manslaughters

Violent Crimes (per 100,000 residents in Ferguson, MO)

In 2013 … 478
In 2014 … 545
In 2015 … 902
In 2016 …. 810
In 2017 …. 721

Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters
In 2013 … 9
In 2014 … 10
In 2015 … 24
In 2016 …. 43
In 2017 …. 53

Note that these are rates per 100,000, not number of murders. Ferguson is a suburb of slightly over 20k in population, so in 2013 there were 2 homicides in Ferguson and in 2017 there were 11. So, small samples sizes … but still …

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  1. I’m told that just a few more trillion in welfare entitlements over the next couple decades will fix this up in a jiffy!

  2. Obama takes credit for the Trump Bump in stocks and jobs, but guaranteed he won’t take credit for this.

  3. Well, if THEY don’t care, why should I? The campus, the streets, left-wing cities, all in decline. Let them burn, they’re lefties. They rejected my kind of advice for fifty years. When they all became what we knew they would, now it’s MY fault? I’m supposed to care? Fat chance. Their destruction is my pleasure. All mine.

  4. Speaking of encroaching diversity, a fatherless family of duckbill platypodes just moved into PBSKids. There goes Daniel Tiger’s neighborhood!

    • Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
  5. Marty says:

    Today in Mill Valley I was paying for gas behind a 70-ish black lady wearing a HBCU t-shirt bearing the slogan, “the blacker the college, the stronger the knowledge.”

    • Replies: @F0337
  6. Has Ferguson become more minority-majority in the reviewed time frame?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  7. Arclight says:

    So we have the “Ferguson Effect” to describe the increase in crime, but what’s the name for the huge amounts of property owner equity that has been destroyed as well?

    TNC goes on about redlining 80 years ago, but it seems to me like the biggest threat to black asset accumulation are movements like BLM and cheerleaders like himself.

    • Replies: @F0337
  8. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Redneck farmer

    Ferguson was a safe white suburb of St Louis years ago, then the “good” blacks started to move there, whites started to leave, then the “medium” blacks came, and so on. It was already a black ghetto for years before the Obama riots. There was a magazine article about East St Louis crime from decades ago, it mentioned a successful guy who coached in ESL, commuting from then-nice Ferguson.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  9. @Reg Cæsar

    We watch Daniel T with the little one. The Neighborhood has a mixed race couple, a Puerto Rican baker, and an old white mailman.

    The only white family wears crowns and are kings and queens and princes. I think the platypus family moved into King Friday’s garage until they can find something more permanent.

    On that subject, little Moose loves Llama Llama, but daddy ain’t around in any of the books we have. Just mommy and some water buffalo family that comes over for vegan Thanksgiving.

    PBS kids and the baby shows are kind of fascinating when you notice all this stuff. Like Sesame Street with its Mexican muppet who speaks Spanish. None of the other muppets have nationalities because they are puppets.

    I have my theories though, like Oscar the Grouch who lives in a trashcan and is obviously a bad-tempered, mentally ill African American homeless gentleman. Grover is Jewish, I think I even heard him say ‘oy vey’ once. Ernie takes care of his HIV-positive partner Bert, Big Bird is a birdcentric bird supremacist, Count von Count is obviously Eastern European Jew, etc

    • Replies: @Emblematic
    , @Anonymous
  10. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program provides Ferguson’s population count for each of the years 2013-2017

    When I calculated each year’s crime rates, I used each particular year’s population count.

    2013 = 21,115

    2014 = 21,090

    2015 = 21,059

    2016 = 21,032

    2017 = 20,789

    Michael Brown was killed in August 2014, and the city’s population count began to decline during that year.

    Ferguson’s population declined every year from 2013 to 2017 — a total of 326 residents.

    The decline of Ferguson’s population count will continue steadily for many years.

    Ferguson’s population count is a good proxy for Ferguson’s economy.

  11. None of the other Muppets have nationalities because they are puppets.

    Or sexual orientations, for that matter.

    Sesame Street disputes writer’s claim that Bert and Ernie are gay

  12. F0337 says:

    “the blacker the college, the stronger the knowledge.”

    And it’s so true, too. Knowledge of things like affirmative action, twerking, benefits fraud, and how to avoid the po po.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @J.Ross
  13. F0337 says:

    Consider the aggregate value lost when many of America’s great cities were converted to ash heaps.

  14. @F0337

    I’ve got nothing against black people taking pride in black colleges.

    • Replies: @F0337
  15. F0337 says:
    @The Z Blog

    Comments excerpts, for entertainment:

    Send more ammo.

    Congrats–beating out Chicago is a biggie. Keep up the good shooting.

    The Baltimore BLM’s have a better kill ratio than the Chicago BLM’s.

    Anti-racists say there is a RACE problem that can only be solved when the third world pours into EVERY White country

    Baltimore’s (Black) homicide rate = 56 per 100,000
    White homicide offender rate in USA = 1.4 per 100,000

    Blacks in Baltimore are committing MURDER at 40-TIMES the rate that Whites do. St. Louis is right there at 40-TIMES, too.

    What do the top five U.S. murderous cities have in common?

  16. Ferguson has a population of around 21,000. Therefore the city fits into the FBI’s so-called Group V, which is cities with population within the range of 10,000 to 25,000.

    For that group, the annual rates (per 100,000) of murders and non-negligent manslaughters are listed below.

    2013 = 2.6

    2014 = 2.5

    2015 = 2.9

    2016 = 3.1

    2017 = 3.1

    Click on each year to go to its statistical table.

    In general, the rates have fluctuated around 2.8 per 100,000 through 2013-2017.


    Below are the corresponding annual rates for Ferguson, where Michael Brown was killed in August 2014.

    2013 = 9

    2014 = 10

    2015 = 24

    2016 = 43

    2017 = 53

  17. One major factor in the rise of Ferguson’s murder rate surely is the reluctance of the police to control the population pro-actively.

    A second major factor surely is the population’s reluctance to cooperate with the police.

    Immediately after the killing of Michael Brown in August 2014, people (especially Blacks) in that neighborhood became increasingly afraid to report their own eyewitness experiences that contradicted the lies that had been told on the mass media by Dorian Johnson, Piaget Crenshaw and Tiffany Mitchell.

    This fear grew further after the riots that followed the grand jury’s refusal to indict police officer Darren Wilson in November 2014.

    * The police do not want to risk their careers by acting pro-actively.

    * The residents do not want to risk their own well-being by cooperating with police.

    The result is that the local criminals feel increasingly free to commit crimes.

    In a vicious circle, the city’s population and economy are declining continually.

  18. F0337 says:
    @Steve Sailer

    “Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”

  19. @Ghost of Bull Moose

    As a four/five year old, Oscar the Grouch was the only puppet character on Sesame Street that I liked. He was the only one who I felt wasn’t talking down to me. I won’t accept that he was black.

  20. J.Ross says: • Website

    Consider the CultMarx poison they’d get at a respectable white college; if anything Morehouse would probably be more likely to be balanced.

    • Replies: @F0337
  21. Art Deco says:

    . It was already a black ghetto for years before the Obama riots.

    It was an ordinary working-class suburb with average crime rates.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  22. anon[146] • Disclaimer says:

    Anywhere you get blacks high rates of crime follow.

  23. F0337 says:

    You have a point, though I know comparatively little about Morehouse et al.

    Lunchtime debate at Alabama State, a HBSU:

  24. Pericles says:

    Ferguson is a suburb of slightly over 20k in population, so in 2013 there were 2 homicides in Ferguson and in 2017 there were 11. So, small samples sizes … but still …

    By comparison, I grew up in a suburb of perhaps 10k population, and during those ten years there were 0 homicides in total. That was, ahem, some time ago, but now that I think about it, I still haven’t heard of any.

  25. @Art Deco

    It was an ordinary working-class suburb with average crime rates.

    If your point was that it is wasn’t the ghetto–yes.

    But a pre-Ferguson-effect homicide rate of 9/100K is not “average”. That’s in the ballpark of the rate for the most homicidal state in the US–Louisana (10.3 in 2014), though well below the big numbers ~50ish you get in places like Detroit. Or for that matter below what you have in Mexico or Puerto Rico–20ish–or much more violent Latin American nations.

    Even before the disturbance Ferguson was a place most of the remaining white people would have wanted to get away from if they could.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  26. Anonymous[253] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Isn’t The Count more of a Romanian or Bulgarian Christian?

    Also regarding Llama Llama, there is another book by the same author called Nelly Gnu and Dady Too which is surprisingly tradcon. The dad is really smart and handy around the house, the daughter looks up to him, etc. Maybe the publication deal is one and one?

  27. Most of leftist minoritarianism is essentially an argument for separation. (If we whites suck so much that we need constant beating, why oh why are you all so insistent on getting into our schools, country clubs, neigbhorhoods and nations?)

    But Michael Brown and the BLM agitation was one of the most explicit arguments for separation i’ve seen.

    If it’s such a great burden for Michael Brown to have to listen to a white cop tell him to move out of the street, without his racial dignity being offended to the point he has to punch the cop and try and grab his gun … and when that approach heads south on him, black “activists” and their Jewish financial (Soros) and media (NYT) and political (Democrats) backers think there should be hell to pay for whitey …

    then isn’t the only workable solution that blacks live in black comunities policed by black cops according to black community standards and whites live in white communities policed by white cops according to white community standards?


    We need conservative/nationalist politicians who have the rhetotical chops and willingingness to wade into the fray and take on the minoritarian narrative head on.

    To have a nation you must have *one* “culture” at least at the sharp end of the spear, essentially the “rules of road”, what the public behavioral expections are.

    I demand the right to live in America. I.e. to have the public mores of the West–Anglo-American edition. That used to be the general American expectation. If that expection has been destroyed by “diversity” than i want no part of this police-staty–and explicitly anti-white–dystopia. There’s a huge number of white people–and a good number of blacks and Asians as well–who have a similar Western/Anglo-American cultural expectations as mine. Let us peacefully separate.

  28. Art Deco says:

    It’s a suburban town with 20,000 people in it. The number of homicides bounces around from year to year. The median number from 2002 to 2013 was 1 per year. That’s a rate of 4.8 per 100,000. The mean number was 1.5, for a rate of 7.2 per 100,000. NB, 5 of 17 homicides occurred in 2011.

    The rape rate over that period (2002-13) was elevated (33 per 100,000, about 10% above national means) . The robbery rate was elevated (208 per 100,000 median, 1.5x national means). Aggravated assault was around 220 per 100,000, about 20% below national means. Car theft, at 820 per 100,000 was about 2x national means. Burglary, at 1,170 per 100,000, was about 60% above national means. The trajectory was downward for rapes and car thefts, upward for homicide and burglary, and fuzzy for the others. Rates of robbery and rape were about average for metropolitan zones.

    Place had some problems. Things are now quite a bit worse.

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