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The Anthropologists Are Hunting for Geneticist David Reich's Head
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I’ve got a long review of Harvard geneticist David Reich’s new book on ancient DNA, Who We Are and How We Got Here, coming out pretty soon, probably Wednesday in Taki’s Magazine. My theme is how this 2010s wave of genome studies of old skeletons has demolished much of the conventional wisdom promoted by post-Boasian anthropologists.

The anthropologists, such as Agustín Fuentes, are not happy with Reich.

 
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  1. Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?

    • Replies: @Percy Gryce
    Here's literally a story about a man who knew geological facts that others didn't and he didn't fare so well. Knowing the truth will set you free but not necessarily make you rich:

    https://www.amazon.com/Map-That-Changed-World-William/dp/0061767905

    , @27 year old

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven't been a lot of good answers.
    , @Anonymous

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    The "gold" in this case is pretty obvious and is being actively used by many companies: "Hire by IQ". Which, when obnoxious regulations get in the way, translates into "hire physicists". See: Quants at Wall Street.

    Amazingly enough, most of the businesses in the USA still don't get it. Or maybe they do but can't bring themselves to act on it.

    , @bomag

    Okay braniacs...
     
    Supposedly, the brainiacs are the ones who believe that there are no racial differences. They live happier and healthier lives by not noticing anything about race. Or so I'm told.
    , @Yak-15
    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t.
     
    What are you talking about?
    , @Peter Akuleyev

    you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    For the most part society behaves along lines that HBD suggests so there isn't much to be gained except at the margins. Most people already realize that investing in African countries is a bad idea, we already use academic credentials as a proxy for IQ and diligence, even liberals tend to avoid living in "bad" (i.e. heavily black) neighborhoods. All HBD does is expose hypocrisy, which actually makes it harder for people to make money exploiting that hypocrisy. The only example I can think of someone maybe exploiting HBD to their benefit is arguably Bill Belichick finding cheap white football players who are 90% as athletically talented as more expensive black players but more intelligent and more adaptable to his systems.

    As for long term bets - if you can find a way to make a 30 year bet on North Korea, that might pay off.

    , @snorlax
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Shi_Bi

    The He Shi Bi (Chinese: 和氏璧) or He's Jade Disc, was a jade bi disc which played an important part in many historical stories in Ancient China. Found in the State of Chu by a man named Bian He (卞和), it was first made into a jade disc, then into the Imperial Seal of China by Qin Shi Huang.

    The story of how this precious jade was discovered has come from Han Fei in his book of the same name. Bian He found a piece of jade stone on Mount Chu. He recognized the value of the jade inside the stone and made his offer to his king named Li. King Li had his jeweler examine the stone, who said it was mere stone. King Li punished He by having his left foot cut off. After King Li died and his son, Wu, came to the throne, He once again offered his grand stone to the King. Wu had his jeweler examine the stone, who said it was mere stone. King Wu then punished He by having his right foot cut off. After King Wu died and his son, Wen, came to the throne. He held his jade stone and cried for three days and three nights at the foothill of Mount Chu. When he ran out of tears, blood came down his cheeks. King Wen sent his man to question him, asking, "Why, when many had their feet cut off, are you grieving so?" He replied, "I'm not grieving for my feet. I'm grieving for the wrongs that a precious jade is called a stone, and an honest man a liar." Upon hearing that, King Wen had his jeweler cut open the stone. A large piece of pure jade was seen nested inside the stone. In light of the discovery, King Wen named the jade He Shi in honor of what Bian He had done to uncover the jade.
     
    , @Bill
    My children attend a 95% non-NAM school.
    , @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    Hmm, you might have heard about this new fangled thing call Gentrification. :)

    How many billions of dollars have been made off buying up properties, raising rents and pushing out blacks so that white (and Asian) hipsters and gays can move into the area?

    Let's see, what other ways can one profit from our current silliness:

    1. Education racket.
    - Get involved in selling the endlessly recycled programs to the monsterous education establishment promising to solve achievement gap. Huge money to be made there.

    2. Scamming minority loan programs by having a front man
    - Use Obama-type black as the face of your business and suck in those almost no-intererst, government guaranteed loans for any and all business ventures. Just make sure that each business is technically separate each other. The ones that fail don't cost you a dime because you just file for bankruptcy. The profits from the ones that succeed are all yours.

    Nice.

    Btw, I knew a black and white team that did this with education centers for decades. Worked like a charm.

    3. Corporate shake-downs
    - Form some Racial/Gender Diversity Organization and threaten large corporations with lawsuits and bad pulblicity if they donate to your organization or other organizations that you, your family or close associates are a part of.

    4. SPLC
    - Enough said.

    So, yes, there are lots of ways to profit from our society's Cult of Equality. That said, you have to work at making that money. There's no easy money because 99% of the time, whites (and Asians) act just like they were commentators on this board. That's how you know that HBD is right.

    Look at where people live, what schools they send their kids to school, who are their friends, where they vacation, where they go to church, etc. That tells you what they believe and what whites believe is that blacks have a lower IQ and are more prone to violence and crime. Behavioral finance requires irrational behavior, and you just don't see much of it with whites in how they live their day-to-day lives. The HBD market is pretty efficient - if quietly so.

    However, whites (and Asians) are willing to pay some shekels for absolution and hope.
    , @Mr. Anon
    As commenter 27 year old pointed out, he won't get sucker-punched by a black guy. That's a pretty large benefit. Other benefits include: maintaining the value of your housing investment (by not moving into the wrong neighborhood or moving out before it's too late), not wasting a lot of time trying to solve essentially intractable social problems, etc.

    Such knowledge probably won't make you rich, but it will keep you safe from a lot of avoidable harm and keep you from wasting a lot of time and money. That has a lot of value in itself.

    Anyway, your challenge is wrong in its very premise - the notion that rare knowledge is necessarily monetizable. Not many people understand modern algebra or are able to speak Chemehuevi either. And, of those, very few - I would hazard to guess nobody or almost nobody - have gotten rich off of it.

  2. Will he be Watsoned?

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    Will he be Watsoned?
     
    What other purpose can Fuentes have?
    , @ThirdWorldSteveReader
    I doubt, he already recited the I-hate-Watson litany to show the Left priesthood he is on their side.
  3. Guess that offering up Watson as a human sacrifice to the Gods of Political Correctness wasn’t enough….

    • Replies: @PV van der Byl
    Agreed. The first half Reich's piece was actually pretty good.

    Then he slurred Wade and Watson, no doubt, as a way to deflect attacks from the Left because he acknowledged that race was a good deal more than a social constrict.

    As Winston Churchill could have told him:

    'You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.'
  4. Guess that offering up Watson as a human sacrifice to the Gods of Political Correctness wasn’t good enough….

  5. Fuentes is another unfrozen caveman anthropologist

    • Replies: @JerryC
    Encino Man?
    , @TontoBubbaGoldstein
    https://vimeo.com/133414453
  6. @Lot
    Fuentes is another unfrozen caveman anthropologist

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/lmZX9dKMzqI/maxresdefault.jpg

    Encino Man?

  7. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Here’s literally a story about a man who knew geological facts that others didn’t and he didn’t fare so well. Knowing the truth will set you free but not necessarily make you rich:

  8. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:

    Real anthropology is fascinating stuff, but that’s physical anthropology. The last bastion of that are the forensic anthropologists.

    • Replies: @Seth Largo
    I've been watching episodes of Forensic Files on Netflix. Every third episode features a forensic anthropologist calmly explaining why the skull with the blunt trauma on it belongs to a "Mongoloid" or a "Caucasoid." Then they talk about cranial capacity varying among racial groups. Then they recreate an accurate facial physiognomy from the skull. They are hilariously oblivious to the current year, and surprisingly, a non-trivial number of them are young and/or female.
  9. Funny, this makes a point I’ve long made. No one asked us. They told us.

  10. anonymous[408] • Disclaimer says:

    To apologists for Reich who say “Of, poor Prof Reich just has to tow the PC line, he’s an HBDer at heart.” Okay, then why doesn’t he just keep his mouth shut instead of spouting off in the NYTimes? He can’t help but fly towards the limelight?

    • Replies: @res
    I have mixed feelings about this. The character assassination part of Reich's piece was probably necessary to get the factual part published in the NYT. But was the net effect worthwhile?
  11. Race is— ‘incipient speciation’. A simple and succinct definition for laymen and experts alike. The definition suggests the connotation of the passage of evolutionary time, not merely a snapshot of populations in one moment in time.

  12. Curious. He’s acting outraged on the internet, complaining as though he’s been stymied from getting his message out. Seems to me like they think the NYT is a status symbol. I guess it is among a certain circle.

  13. http://sites.jcu.edu/newsroom/events/lecture-human-evolution-agustin-fuentes-ph-d/
    Mr. Fuentes looks exactly how you would expect him to look…

    • Replies: @Autochthon
    I see his appointment is at Notre Dame University, but of course he is almost certainly an atheist who derides religion as much as he does science.
  14. Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin? Are they lashing out not only because they are wrong, but also because their profession is pointless?

    • Replies: @peterike

    Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin?

     

    As I've said before, an anthropologist is an English professor who spends time in a hut. It's essentially no different. They take a "text" -- which in the anthropologist's case is a native village or something -- and then they "interpret" it in a way that suits current political dogma, but may have nothing whatsoever to do with the obvious, in-front-of-your-nose reality of the situation.
  15. @Lot
    Fuentes is another unfrozen caveman anthropologist

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/lmZX9dKMzqI/maxresdefault.jpg

    • Replies: @Lot
    It's a one-joke sketch, but Hartman is good enough to carry it.
  16. @syonredux
    Guess that offering up Watson as a human sacrifice to the Gods of Political Correctness wasn't enough....

    Agreed. The first half Reich’s piece was actually pretty good.

    Then he slurred Wade and Watson, no doubt, as a way to deflect attacks from the Left because he acknowledged that race was a good deal more than a social constrict.

    As Winston Churchill could have told him:

    ‘You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.’

    • LOL: AndrewR
  17. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?

    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven’t been a lot of good answers.

    • Replies: @Anonym
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    Around blacks, never relax as they say.

    And BTCPTT.

    , @bomag

    How to profit...
     
    The problem is that the market is already perfected regarding race: EVERYBODY knows the score, thus all the racial arbitrage has been wrung out already.
    , @Dave Pinsen
    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can't possibly work. If it did, I'd be rich, right?

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/977722415898873856
    , @Rod1963
    No one gets rich from it, not even Sailer.

    However it will stop you from becoming a Soy Boy like the male readers of Buzzfeed. And that is a definite upside. Not ending up testosterone free male or making friends with insane feminists in the hopes of getting some tail.

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.
  18. I love love love counter-revolutionary terror!

  19. Anonymous[217] • Disclaimer says:
    @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?

    The “gold” in this case is pretty obvious and is being actively used by many companies: “Hire by IQ”. Which, when obnoxious regulations get in the way, translates into “hire physicists”. See: Quants at Wall Street.

    Amazingly enough, most of the businesses in the USA still don’t get it. Or maybe they do but can’t bring themselves to act on it.

  20. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Okay braniacs…

    Supposedly, the brainiacs are the ones who believe that there are no racial differences. They live happier and healthier lives by not noticing anything about race. Or so I’m told.

  21. @27 year old

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven't been a lot of good answers.

    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    Around blacks, never relax as they say.

    And BTCPTT.

  22. @27 year old

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven't been a lot of good answers.

    How to profit…

    The problem is that the market is already perfected regarding race: EVERYBODY knows the score, thus all the racial arbitrage has been wrung out already.

    • Replies: @Lot
    HBD would let you avoid certain bad investments, but not get you any abnormal returns. You only need part of the market to be HBD aware enough to compete away such returns.

    The nice thing about markets is that only a small share of the market needs to have information that everyone can benefit from through price signals.
  23. OT: CNN ” An immigration bill you’ve never heard of will solve US’s labor shortage ”

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/26/news/economy/h1-b-visa-opinion/index.html

    • Replies: @Elsewhere
    Great catch! What a tendentious and dishonest article!

    The article says that we have a strong labor market right now in STEM, which is leaving us with a shortage of STEM workers, nevermind that these two statements are synonymous. It claims thwww.unz.comenact Trump's "Buy American, Hire American" policy by flooding the job market with foreign H-1B workers, who would also have preferences to bring their whole family and settle down. It explicitly protects against the replacement of American workers... except if the salary is $100,000 or more, then it is totally fine to expressly replace an American worker.

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough. Employers should have to pay an extra 25% tax on the wages of a foreign worker.
  24. >>NYT again refuses to give anthropology a voice…

    By the fourth and one half year of college I sensed that I had overstayed my welcome but I still hadn’t declared a major. An advisor told me to declare one of these new fangled interdisciplinary majors and just move on. I took his advice and loaded up on a bunch of anthropology courses that could be applied towards the major. Well, having completed those anthro courses I am not inclined to give anthropology a voice or a room at the table, so to speak.

    • Replies: @Half Canadian
    This seems relevant:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3u6RfOufJQ
  25. @27 year old

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven't been a lot of good answers.

    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can’t possibly work. If it did, I’d be rich, right?

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?
     
    Only if it were Steve Sailer.
    , @map
    What do you think of Meb Faber?
    , @Pericles
    So, are you rich now?
    , @Bill
    50% of people do better than the median return. Long Term Capital Management used known-to-be-outperforming strategies. Lots of really smart people with access to lots of resources spend all day, every day coming up with algos. Consider the possibility that you got lucky.
  26. Why did Steve Sailer like the tweet? Is it revenge for Reich throwing Harpending under the bus (let the PC eat themselves)? And lol at the Jennifer Raff thread Fuentes fawns over:

    OMG if we say that race has a genetic basis people might think it explains what they see right before their eyes rather than our political B.S. I mean really scientists, do you want the burden of teaching rightthink? Wouldn’t you rather get back to your labs and not worry about explaining the complex loopholes in nomenclature so the hoi polloi don’t become racist?

    • Replies: @Bill

    OMG if we say that race has a genetic basis people might think it explains what they see right before their eyes rather than our political B.S. I mean really scientists, do you want the burden of teaching rightthink? Wouldn’t you rather get back to your labs and not worry about explaining the complex loopholes in nomenclature so the hoi polloi don’t become racist?
     
    I agree it's funny. OTOH, this is how most academics think about this subject---or at least the way they say they think about it. Admitting race is real, genetic, and important would lead to bad outcome X; therefore, we should place a crushing burden of proof (plus social sanctions) on claims that race is real, genetic, and important.

    On the gripping hand, though, I kind of agree with them. Admitting the truth on race would be extraordinarily damaging to their world view. It's entirely possible that when they tell you that crushing their world view would probably turn them into Nazis (perhaps replacing Jew hatred with black hatred) that they are pretty much telling you the truth. Don't be distracted by her blabber about "the hoi polloi." She is talking about herself.
  27. @TontoBubbaGoldstein
    https://vimeo.com/133414453

    It’s a one-joke sketch, but Hartman is good enough to carry it.

    • Replies: @Percy Gryce
    "Your world frightens and confuses me."

    Phil Hartman, RIP

  28. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    But it’s one path I am exploring
     
    It might work. I am expecting you to earn so much that you can donate about $20M to Steve Sailer and then he won't have to have his triannual fundraisers.
    , @bartok

    run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers
     
    Yeah, but make sure you check the 1st and 2nd derivatives of those stats. That's where the payoff will be..

    How about investing by "IQ and the Wealth of Nations" after applying a value tilt?
    , @Mishra
    Don't forget to account for the effects of the sheer force of numbers. All of these little variables are about to be subsumed by the Flood of Fecundity. Have fun, and hang on to the day job.
    , @Bill
    I'd use sex rather than race. There aren't that many blacks in C-suites. There are lots of women.
  29. @bomag

    How to profit...
     
    The problem is that the market is already perfected regarding race: EVERYBODY knows the score, thus all the racial arbitrage has been wrung out already.

    HBD would let you avoid certain bad investments, but not get you any abnormal returns. You only need part of the market to be HBD aware enough to compete away such returns.

    The nice thing about markets is that only a small share of the market needs to have information that everyone can benefit from through price signals.

  30. ‘Gray Enlightenment’ has suggested investing in the highest IQ companies – Google, Amazon, Netflix. I don’t know whether he’s updated that view.

  31. @Lot
    It's a one-joke sketch, but Hartman is good enough to carry it.

    “Your world frightens and confuses me.”

    Phil Hartman, RIP

  32. @t
    OT: CNN " An immigration bill you've never heard of will solve US's labor shortage "

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/26/news/economy/h1-b-visa-opinion/index.html

    Great catch! What a tendentious and dishonest article!

    The article says that we have a strong labor market right now in STEM, which is leaving us with a shortage of STEM workers, nevermind that these two statements are synonymous. It claims thwww.unz.comenact Trump’s “Buy American, Hire American” policy by flooding the job market with foreign H-1B workers, who would also have preferences to bring their whole family and settle down. It explicitly protects against the replacement of American workers… except if the salary is $100,000 or more, then it is totally fine to expressly replace an American worker.

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough. Employers should have to pay an extra 25% tax on the wages of a foreign worker.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough.
     
    You have the right sentiment, but your solution is almost as weak as the original proposition.

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.
  33. “Again force and love meet face to face, and the question, “What shall I do with Jesus?” “What shall I do with Franz Boas” must be answered. A bloody, brutal doctrine–Evolution,— –Human Biodiversity–demands, as the rabble did nineteen hundred years ago eighty-five years ago, that He be crucified six-million be mass-murdered. That cannot be the answer of this jury representing a Christian state and sworn to uphold the laws of Tennessee community representing Anthropology and sworn to uphold the laws of Political Correctness. Your answer will be heard throughout the world; it is eagerly awaited by a praying judging multitude. If the law is nullified, there will be rejoice wherever God P.C. is repudiated, the savior scoffed at and the Bible The Mismeasure of Man ridiculed.”

    William Jennings Bryan-21st century anthropologist version

    http://www.famous-trials.com/scopesmonkey/2183-bryansummation

  34. @Luke Lea
    Will he be Watsoned?

    Will he be Watsoned?

    What other purpose can Fuentes have?

  35. @Elsewhere
    Great catch! What a tendentious and dishonest article!

    The article says that we have a strong labor market right now in STEM, which is leaving us with a shortage of STEM workers, nevermind that these two statements are synonymous. It claims thwww.unz.comenact Trump's "Buy American, Hire American" policy by flooding the job market with foreign H-1B workers, who would also have preferences to bring their whole family and settle down. It explicitly protects against the replacement of American workers... except if the salary is $100,000 or more, then it is totally fine to expressly replace an American worker.

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough. Employers should have to pay an extra 25% tax on the wages of a foreign worker.

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough.

    You have the right sentiment, but your solution is almost as weak as the original proposition.

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.

    • Agree: Daniel H
    • Replies: @Mishra

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.
     
    Yeah, but just think of the smashing little restaurants they'll all open when they get laid off. Much better than all y'all wypipo who just complain about yo country bein' wrecked.
    , @Travis
    true, we do not ned them , but taxing the employers 25% would discourage firms from hiring them. As it stands now there is little reason for firms not to hire these lower wage Indians...most of the managers hiring the Indians are themselves Indians and they know the H1B visa holders are not able to quit because they risk losing their visas. and thus they find it easier to manage the Indian H1B visa workers.

    eliminating the H1b Visa program would be ideal, but our GOP congress will not even consider eliminating the diversity lottery, nor will they fund a wall. It will be more likely for congress to end to the diversity lottery than an end to the h1B visa program. But a 25% tax on firms is possible, and would be popular with Americans.
  36. @Dave Pinsen
    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can't possibly work. If it did, I'd be rich, right?

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/977722415898873856

    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    Only if it were Steve Sailer.

  37. @Yak-15
    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.

    But it’s one path I am exploring

    It might work. I am expecting you to earn so much that you can donate about $20M to Steve Sailer and then he won’t have to have his triannual fundraisers.

  38. @Daniel H
    >>NYT again refuses to give anthropology a voice...

    By the fourth and one half year of college I sensed that I had overstayed my welcome but I still hadn't declared a major. An advisor told me to declare one of these new fangled interdisciplinary majors and just move on. I took his advice and loaded up on a bunch of anthropology courses that could be applied towards the major. Well, having completed those anthro courses I am not inclined to give anthropology a voice or a room at the table, so to speak.

    This seems relevant:

  39. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t.

    What are you talking about?

  40. OT:

    I found this video funny, and now youtube is trying to limit it.

    • Replies: @Yngvar
    Ad free videos are the best videos.
  41. @27 year old

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?
     
    I will never get sucker punched by a black guy.

    But other than that, I dunno.

    How to profit from our forbidden knowledge has been a constant topic on the right wing internet since at least the mid aughts when I started reading.

    There haven't been a lot of good answers.

    No one gets rich from it, not even Sailer.

    However it will stop you from becoming a Soy Boy like the male readers of Buzzfeed. And that is a definite upside. Not ending up testosterone free male or making friends with insane feminists in the hopes of getting some tail.

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.

    • Replies: @Bill

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.
     
    That's not the hard part. The hard part is getting out of real estate and stocks before the bubble bursts. You're 100% in cash at the moment, I suppose?
  42. @Yak-15
    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.

    run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers

    Yeah, but make sure you check the 1st and 2nd derivatives of those stats. That’s where the payoff will be..

    How about investing by “IQ and the Wealth of Nations” after applying a value tilt?

  43. @Yak-15
    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.

    Don’t forget to account for the effects of the sheer force of numbers. All of these little variables are about to be subsumed by the Flood of Fecundity. Have fun, and hang on to the day job.

  44. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough.
     
    You have the right sentiment, but your solution is almost as weak as the original proposition.

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.

    Yeah, but just think of the smashing little restaurants they’ll all open when they get laid off. Much better than all y’all wypipo who just complain about yo country bein’ wrecked.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    Much better than all y’all wypipo who just complain about yo country bein’ wrecked.
     
    Are you in my country? And why did you offer a comparative that insults white people? If you are trolling for a race war, maybe the outcome won't be the Orwellian future you pine for. Things do get out of hand once hostilities begin in earnest.

    And hostilities have not begun in earnest.
  45. @Dave Pinsen
    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can't possibly work. If it did, I'd be rich, right?

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/977722415898873856

    What do you think of Meb Faber?

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Good ideas. Bad implementation.

    However, trend following and dual momentum are useful. Personally, I'd use Antonacci's GEM or, maybe something from Newfound Research.

    Actually, pretty easy to set up your own tactical asset allocation system using Portfolio Visualizer. Use cheap ETFs to access the main asset classes - US large, US small, US equal weight (slight tilt to small and value) (RSP), Europe, Pacific, Emerging Markets, US REIT, Int'l REIT, 10-Year Treasury, TIPs, Em Mkt Bonds, Commodities (DBC) and Gold (GLD).

    Use AGG (or short-term bond ETF) for Out of Market asset.

    Use combo of 3, 6, and 12 month for the relative momentum screen. Hit the Multiple Periods for the Performance Periods. For period Weighting just use weight rank orders.

    Choose the top 3 ETFs each month.

    Use 10-Month moving average for the trend screen.

    Ta-da. A kick-ass tactical asset allocation strategy with no expense ratio and that's almost free to implement. Find a brokerage firm that allows you to trade ETFs for free. (Sure, you might be able to improve it with volatility weighting or some of the other whiz bang stuff, but they don't add that much, if anything, so keep it simple.)

    But don't do any of that until you read everything that you can until you "believe" in the strategy. Otherwise, you'll bail when it underperforms - and it will underperform.
    , @Dave Pinsen
    I compared his TAIL fund to my risk management approach here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145103-saving-tail-spy-swoons

    (Seeking Alpha now paywalls older articles, but I made that an "author's pick" so it will be free to read if you register there).

    TL;DR: His fund isn't bad if you know when the market is going to tank; my hedged portfolio approach is designed to generate competitive returns when things go well, and strictly limit your risk when they don't. I compare the performance of both approaches using different time frames there.
  46. Catholic Church patronized much of the work done by Galileo, but his findings didn’t agree with Church doctrine.

    Anthros may have supplied the data, but it seems Reich read it right. Anthros read it wrong cuz of commitment to dogma.

  47. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    Yep.

    The point is that DNA evidence is incontrovertible and damn nigh unfalsifiable – which, as it happens, is the life blood of hard science versus a soft science -.
    It is ironic that major advances in other hard, unfalsifiable sciences, namely computing and DNA sequencing has enabled these breakthroughs to be made. Surely, in just this instance alone, lies a moral. Economists please take note.
    This is the way technological innovation advances – advance feeds on advance – often in completely unknowable and surprising directions!

    The physical anthropologists of the old school never had these tools at their disposal, and were therefore forced to use such metrics as skull circumferences etc, which could go so far. For example, the work of such authorities as Carleton Coon, involving such broad sweeps as ‘Alpine’ and ‘Nordic’ races now must be treated with a fair degree of caution.

  48. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:

    Perhaps try a Change.org? I’m sure they could get 500,000 Starbucks baristas to sign it.

  49. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m not sure if there’s a tactful way to break it to this guy, but to get the New York Times to publish a scientist manifesto, the signatories have tho meet a certain threshold of recognized accomplishment. Having a PhD doesn’t cut it. Nobel Prize winners? Department chairs at top 20 universities? Not just your academic Twitter followers. In fact, if you use Twitter you’re probably not going to pass the Times’ filter.

  50. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?

    For the most part society behaves along lines that HBD suggests so there isn’t much to be gained except at the margins. Most people already realize that investing in African countries is a bad idea, we already use academic credentials as a proxy for IQ and diligence, even liberals tend to avoid living in “bad” (i.e. heavily black) neighborhoods. All HBD does is expose hypocrisy, which actually makes it harder for people to make money exploiting that hypocrisy. The only example I can think of someone maybe exploiting HBD to their benefit is arguably Bill Belichick finding cheap white football players who are 90% as athletically talented as more expensive black players but more intelligent and more adaptable to his systems.

    As for long term bets – if you can find a way to make a 30 year bet on North Korea, that might pay off.

  51. @Dave Pinsen
    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can't possibly work. If it did, I'd be rich, right?

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/977722415898873856

    So, are you rich now?

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    No.
  52. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Shi_Bi

    The He Shi Bi (Chinese: 和氏璧) or He’s Jade Disc, was a jade bi disc which played an important part in many historical stories in Ancient China. Found in the State of Chu by a man named Bian He (卞和), it was first made into a jade disc, then into the Imperial Seal of China by Qin Shi Huang.

    The story of how this precious jade was discovered has come from Han Fei in his book of the same name. Bian He found a piece of jade stone on Mount Chu. He recognized the value of the jade inside the stone and made his offer to his king named Li. King Li had his jeweler examine the stone, who said it was mere stone. King Li punished He by having his left foot cut off. After King Li died and his son, Wu, came to the throne, He once again offered his grand stone to the King. Wu had his jeweler examine the stone, who said it was mere stone. King Wu then punished He by having his right foot cut off. After King Wu died and his son, Wen, came to the throne. He held his jade stone and cried for three days and three nights at the foothill of Mount Chu. When he ran out of tears, blood came down his cheeks. King Wen sent his man to question him, asking, “Why, when many had their feet cut off, are you grieving so?” He replied, “I’m not grieving for my feet. I’m grieving for the wrongs that a precious jade is called a stone, and an honest man a liar.” Upon hearing that, King Wen had his jeweler cut open the stone. A large piece of pure jade was seen nested inside the stone. In light of the discovery, King Wen named the jade He Shi in honor of what Bian He had done to uncover the jade.

  53. Culture And Intelligence Are Downstream from RACE

  54. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    To me, the idea of a minimum salary for H-1B workers is well-intentioned but not strong enough.
     
    You have the right sentiment, but your solution is almost as weak as the original proposition.

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.

    true, we do not ned them , but taxing the employers 25% would discourage firms from hiring them. As it stands now there is little reason for firms not to hire these lower wage Indians…most of the managers hiring the Indians are themselves Indians and they know the H1B visa holders are not able to quit because they risk losing their visas. and thus they find it easier to manage the Indian H1B visa workers.

    eliminating the H1b Visa program would be ideal, but our GOP congress will not even consider eliminating the diversity lottery, nor will they fund a wall. It will be more likely for congress to end to the diversity lottery than an end to the h1B visa program. But a 25% tax on firms is possible, and would be popular with Americans.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    But a 25% tax on firms is possible, and would be popular with Americans.
     
    I like it. But are you sure it would be popular? Maybe the anti-taxers would be able to spin it as a bad thing. Mom and Pop would bear the burden, etc.
  55. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    My children attend a 95% non-NAM school.

  56. @Rod1963
    No one gets rich from it, not even Sailer.

    However it will stop you from becoming a Soy Boy like the male readers of Buzzfeed. And that is a definite upside. Not ending up testosterone free male or making friends with insane feminists in the hopes of getting some tail.

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.

    That’s not the hard part. The hard part is getting out of real estate and stocks before the bubble bursts. You’re 100% in cash at the moment, I suppose?

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Actually, the hard part is getting back in. People are pretty good about running from the danger of the stock market but not so good about getting back in after being burned.

    Best to outsource to a formula. Trend following works well. Nothing wrong with using a simple 10-month moving average for deciding when to be in a large market such as stocks or REITs and when to be out.
  57. @Dave Pinsen
    If someone showed you a way to make money online, would you believe it?

    I mean, this can't possibly work. If it did, I'd be rich, right?

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/977722415898873856

    50% of people do better than the median return. Long Term Capital Management used known-to-be-outperforming strategies. Lots of really smart people with access to lots of resources spend all day, every day coming up with algos. Consider the possibility that you got lucky.

    • Replies: @snorlax
    A large part of beating the market is being young enough that you can spot the trends.

    I (millennial) made a killing on my investments (e.g. Bitcoin at $50, Nvidia, Barclays at the post-Brexit low, Amazon) while my dad (boomer), a skilled investor who consistently beats the market, has nevertheless made some real head-scratchers that I repeatedly warned him against, like buying (and holding for several years) a large position in IBM.

    Of course, that's because when he was my age he was making a killing on IBM and Microsoft while his dad's generation was wondering why their AT&T and Polaroid stopped going up, and so on.
    , @Dave Pinsen
    See the section titled "Security Selection" here: http://portfolioarmor.com/

    The results from the live tests are consistent with those from 25,412 backtests over an 11-year period.

    You will eventually suffer big losses if you just buy those top ten names unhedged. Hence, the hedged portfolio method I mention there, where you can strictly limit your downside risk (something LTCM never did -- not all hedge funds actually hedge. Most don't).
  58. @Senator Brundlefly
    Why did Steve Sailer like the tweet? Is it revenge for Reich throwing Harpending under the bus (let the PC eat themselves)? And lol at the Jennifer Raff thread Fuentes fawns over:

    https://twitter.com/JenniferRaff/status/978622755691167745

    OMG if we say that race has a genetic basis people might think it explains what they see right before their eyes rather than our political B.S. I mean really scientists, do you want the burden of teaching rightthink? Wouldn't you rather get back to your labs and not worry about explaining the complex loopholes in nomenclature so the hoi polloi don't become racist?

    OMG if we say that race has a genetic basis people might think it explains what they see right before their eyes rather than our political B.S. I mean really scientists, do you want the burden of teaching rightthink? Wouldn’t you rather get back to your labs and not worry about explaining the complex loopholes in nomenclature so the hoi polloi don’t become racist?

    I agree it’s funny. OTOH, this is how most academics think about this subject—or at least the way they say they think about it. Admitting race is real, genetic, and important would lead to bad outcome X; therefore, we should place a crushing burden of proof (plus social sanctions) on claims that race is real, genetic, and important.

    On the gripping hand, though, I kind of agree with them. Admitting the truth on race would be extraordinarily damaging to their world view. It’s entirely possible that when they tell you that crushing their world view would probably turn them into Nazis (perhaps replacing Jew hatred with black hatred) that they are pretty much telling you the truth. Don’t be distracted by her blabber about “the hoi polloi.” She is talking about herself.

  59. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don’t. So where’s your gold?

    Hmm, you might have heard about this new fangled thing call Gentrification. 🙂

    How many billions of dollars have been made off buying up properties, raising rents and pushing out blacks so that white (and Asian) hipsters and gays can move into the area?

    Let’s see, what other ways can one profit from our current silliness:

    1. Education racket.
    – Get involved in selling the endlessly recycled programs to the monsterous education establishment promising to solve achievement gap. Huge money to be made there.

    2. Scamming minority loan programs by having a front man
    – Use Obama-type black as the face of your business and suck in those almost no-intererst, government guaranteed loans for any and all business ventures. Just make sure that each business is technically separate each other. The ones that fail don’t cost you a dime because you just file for bankruptcy. The profits from the ones that succeed are all yours.

    Nice.

    Btw, I knew a black and white team that did this with education centers for decades. Worked like a charm.

    3. Corporate shake-downs
    – Form some Racial/Gender Diversity Organization and threaten large corporations with lawsuits and bad pulblicity if they donate to your organization or other organizations that you, your family or close associates are a part of.

    4. SPLC
    – Enough said.

    So, yes, there are lots of ways to profit from our society’s Cult of Equality. That said, you have to work at making that money. There’s no easy money because 99% of the time, whites (and Asians) act just like they were commentators on this board. That’s how you know that HBD is right.

    Look at where people live, what schools they send their kids to school, who are their friends, where they vacation, where they go to church, etc. That tells you what they believe and what whites believe is that blacks have a lower IQ and are more prone to violence and crime. Behavioral finance requires irrational behavior, and you just don’t see much of it with whites in how they live their day-to-day lives. The HBD market is pretty efficient – if quietly so.

    However, whites (and Asians) are willing to pay some shekels for absolution and hope.

  60. @Yak-15
    One of the best ways to personally profit would be to run a series of multi-variable regressions of stock price on an assortment of factors including race of the CEO, percentage of race of the management/workers, race of most likely customer and how broad economic variables possibly contribute to that cohort’s ability to buy products, etc.

    A large times series with multiple lags variables would present many challenges for those unfamiliar statistics and even those who have a firm grasp. But it’s one path I am exploring.

    I’d use sex rather than race. There aren’t that many blacks in C-suites. There are lots of women.

  61. @anony-mouse
    Suppose you knew that geology was true and most other people thought it was false. And then you came upon a mountain which based on your knowledge of geology had lots of gold within. But of course everyone else would scoff at you and your pick and shovel as you dug.

    But you would find gold.

    Okay braniacs, you know something is true that most people don't. So where's your gold?

    As commenter 27 year old pointed out, he won’t get sucker-punched by a black guy. That’s a pretty large benefit. Other benefits include: maintaining the value of your housing investment (by not moving into the wrong neighborhood or moving out before it’s too late), not wasting a lot of time trying to solve essentially intractable social problems, etc.

    Such knowledge probably won’t make you rich, but it will keep you safe from a lot of avoidable harm and keep you from wasting a lot of time and money. That has a lot of value in itself.

    Anyway, your challenge is wrong in its very premise – the notion that rare knowledge is necessarily monetizable. Not many people understand modern algebra or are able to speak Chemehuevi either. And, of those, very few – I would hazard to guess nobody or almost nobody – have gotten rich off of it.

    • Agree: Autochthon
  62. @anonymous
    To apologists for Reich who say "Of, poor Prof Reich just has to tow the PC line, he's an HBDer at heart." Okay, then why doesn't he just keep his mouth shut instead of spouting off in the NYTimes? He can't help but fly towards the limelight?

    I have mixed feelings about this. The character assassination part of Reich’s piece was probably necessary to get the factual part published in the NYT. But was the net effect worthwhile?

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    The character assassination part of Reich’s piece … was the net effect worthwhile?
     
    Those characters were already ‘assassinated.’ There’s no additional loss due to Reich’s transparently silly disavowals. By contrast, the increasing strength of revealed and confirmed hatefacts moves the battle forward. The net effect favors the truth—and in turn, favors the future reputation of those who plainly spoke the truth.
  63. the fact that we generated much of the data and conducted many of the studies Reich cites.

    Does anyone have a sense of:
    1. The proportion of the anthropology research cited by Reich which was done by people Fuentes would sincerely include in “we”?
    2. The proportion of anthropology research in that category which was cited to support Reich’s argument rather than for refutation?

  64. @Anthony Wayne
    Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin? Are they lashing out not only because they are wrong, but also because their profession is pointless?

    Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin?

    As I’ve said before, an anthropologist is an English professor who spends time in a hut. It’s essentially no different. They take a “text” — which in the anthropologist’s case is a native village or something — and then they “interpret” it in a way that suits current political dogma, but may have nothing whatsoever to do with the obvious, in-front-of-your-nose reality of the situation.

    • Agree: BB753, dfordoom
    • Replies: @Autochthon
    Sadly, you are now correct. This nonsense is not, of course, what anthropology actually is, but it does accurately describe the current bastardisation. True anthropologists rightly do interesting work with shades of sociology, archaeology, history, and so forth. One might rightly include among them the likes of Louis Leakey, Mary Leakey, Edward Sapir, Benjamin Whorf, Howard Carter, John Hajnal, David Durkheim, Arthur Evans, Maximilian Weber, and others who have been insightful people advancing knowledge. We should not forget it, just as we mustn't allow mountebanks like Donna Zukerberg to undermine actual classicists like Richard Latimore or the drivel in modern departments of literature to overshadow the work of Professors Tolkien and Lewis and their ilk who may be toiling even now in obscurity, embattled by the overwhelming rot of modern academia.

    A blight of anthrax must not be taken to mean cattle are inherently worthless.

    , @Seth Largo
    Yep. In fact, anthropology books are often taught in English, Education, and other humanities graduate programs. I still have a copy of Clifford Geertz's Interpretation of Culture. It contains a few interesting and many banal arguments and frameworks, all oversold, all sullied by an implicit denial of the roles played by biology and economics in human life.
  65. @Bill
    50% of people do better than the median return. Long Term Capital Management used known-to-be-outperforming strategies. Lots of really smart people with access to lots of resources spend all day, every day coming up with algos. Consider the possibility that you got lucky.

    A large part of beating the market is being young enough that you can spot the trends.

    I (millennial) made a killing on my investments (e.g. Bitcoin at $50, Nvidia, Barclays at the post-Brexit low, Amazon) while my dad (boomer), a skilled investor who consistently beats the market, has nevertheless made some real head-scratchers that I repeatedly warned him against, like buying (and holding for several years) a large position in IBM.

    Of course, that’s because when he was my age he was making a killing on IBM and Microsoft while his dad’s generation was wondering why their AT&T and Polaroid stopped going up, and so on.

  66. NYT rejected an Op-Ed on David Reich’s essay by 50 scientists (a letter to the editor (~125 words) might make it in).

    If the larger composition were anything like this sentence, it ought to have been rejected on the grounds of illiteracy alone.

    Of course the state of the social studies being what it is, illiteracy might well be the best medium for its messages….

  67. @map
    What do you think of Meb Faber?

    Good ideas. Bad implementation.

    However, trend following and dual momentum are useful. Personally, I’d use Antonacci’s GEM or, maybe something from Newfound Research.

    Actually, pretty easy to set up your own tactical asset allocation system using Portfolio Visualizer. Use cheap ETFs to access the main asset classes – US large, US small, US equal weight (slight tilt to small and value) (RSP), Europe, Pacific, Emerging Markets, US REIT, Int’l REIT, 10-Year Treasury, TIPs, Em Mkt Bonds, Commodities (DBC) and Gold (GLD).

    Use AGG (or short-term bond ETF) for Out of Market asset.

    Use combo of 3, 6, and 12 month for the relative momentum screen. Hit the Multiple Periods for the Performance Periods. For period Weighting just use weight rank orders.

    Choose the top 3 ETFs each month.

    Use 10-Month moving average for the trend screen.

    Ta-da. A kick-ass tactical asset allocation strategy with no expense ratio and that’s almost free to implement. Find a brokerage firm that allows you to trade ETFs for free. (Sure, you might be able to improve it with volatility weighting or some of the other whiz bang stuff, but they don’t add that much, if anything, so keep it simple.)

    But don’t do any of that until you read everything that you can until you “believe” in the strategy. Otherwise, you’ll bail when it underperforms – and it will underperform.

  68. @Bill

    Now if you wanted to make money you should have gotten back into real-estate and stocks after the bubble burst in 07.
     
    That's not the hard part. The hard part is getting out of real estate and stocks before the bubble bursts. You're 100% in cash at the moment, I suppose?

    Actually, the hard part is getting back in. People are pretty good about running from the danger of the stock market but not so good about getting back in after being burned.

    Best to outsource to a formula. Trend following works well. Nothing wrong with using a simple 10-month moving average for deciding when to be in a large market such as stocks or REITs and when to be out.

  69. @wren
    OT:

    I found this video funny, and now youtube is trying to limit it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRi-UouACL8

    Ad free videos are the best videos.

  70. • Replies: @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/AmericanAnthro/status/979069387763265537

    https://twitter.com/AmericanAnthro/status/979016541432877057

    https://twitter.com/AmericanAnthro/status/979011725948325888
  71. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/Anthrofuentes/status/979066024745193473

  72. @JohnnyD
    http://sites.jcu.edu/newsroom/events/lecture-human-evolution-agustin-fuentes-ph-d/
    Mr. Fuentes looks exactly how you would expect him to look...

    I see his appointment is at Notre Dame University, but of course he is almost certainly an atheist who derides religion as much as he does science.

  73. @peterike

    Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin?

     

    As I've said before, an anthropologist is an English professor who spends time in a hut. It's essentially no different. They take a "text" -- which in the anthropologist's case is a native village or something -- and then they "interpret" it in a way that suits current political dogma, but may have nothing whatsoever to do with the obvious, in-front-of-your-nose reality of the situation.

    Sadly, you are now correct. This nonsense is not, of course, what anthropology actually is, but it does accurately describe the current bastardisation. True anthropologists rightly do interesting work with shades of sociology, archaeology, history, and so forth. One might rightly include among them the likes of Louis Leakey, Mary Leakey, Edward Sapir, Benjamin Whorf, Howard Carter, John Hajnal, David Durkheim, Arthur Evans, Maximilian Weber, and others who have been insightful people advancing knowledge. We should not forget it, just as we mustn’t allow mountebanks like Donna Zukerberg to undermine actual classicists like Richard Latimore or the drivel in modern departments of literature to overshadow the work of Professors Tolkien and Lewis and their ilk who may be toiling even now in obscurity, embattled by the overwhelming rot of modern academia.

    A blight of anthrax must not be taken to mean cattle are inherently worthless.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    A blight of anthrax must not be taken to mean cattle are inherently worthless.
     
    Well said. Liked especially your use of the word mountebank.
  74. @res
    I have mixed feelings about this. The character assassination part of Reich's piece was probably necessary to get the factual part published in the NYT. But was the net effect worthwhile?

    The character assassination part of Reich’s piece … was the net effect worthwhile?

    Those characters were already ‘assassinated.’ There’s no additional loss due to Reich’s transparently silly disavowals. By contrast, the increasing strength of revealed and confirmed hatefacts moves the battle forward. The net effect favors the truth—and in turn, favors the future reputation of those who plainly spoke the truth.

  75. NYT rejected an Op-Ed on David Reich’s essay by 50 scientists (a letter to the editor (~125 words) might make it in). NYT again refuses to give anthropology a voice despite the fact that we generated much of the data and conducted many of the studies Reich cites.

    — Agustin Fuentes (@Anthrofuentes) March 27, 2018

    As practiced today, are current anthropologist considered true honest to god scientist? Kinda like are political science professors actually scientist?

  76. @Anonymous
    Real anthropology is fascinating stuff, but that's physical anthropology. The last bastion of that are the forensic anthropologists.

    I’ve been watching episodes of Forensic Files on Netflix. Every third episode features a forensic anthropologist calmly explaining why the skull with the blunt trauma on it belongs to a “Mongoloid” or a “Caucasoid.” Then they talk about cranial capacity varying among racial groups. Then they recreate an accurate facial physiognomy from the skull. They are hilariously oblivious to the current year, and surprisingly, a non-trivial number of them are young and/or female.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    A forensic pathologist must, to keep his job, testify that there is no such thing as race AND be able to tell the race of a victim from a few scraps or bones.
     
    -the late Robert W. Whitaker
  77. @peterike

    Now that the whole world participates in history, what exactly does a modern anthropologist do? Travel blogging with a critical-race-spin?

     

    As I've said before, an anthropologist is an English professor who spends time in a hut. It's essentially no different. They take a "text" -- which in the anthropologist's case is a native village or something -- and then they "interpret" it in a way that suits current political dogma, but may have nothing whatsoever to do with the obvious, in-front-of-your-nose reality of the situation.

    Yep. In fact, anthropology books are often taught in English, Education, and other humanities graduate programs. I still have a copy of Clifford Geertz’s Interpretation of Culture. It contains a few interesting and many banal arguments and frameworks, all oversold, all sullied by an implicit denial of the roles played by biology and economics in human life.

  78. @Luke Lea
    Will he be Watsoned?

    I doubt, he already recited the I-hate-Watson litany to show the Left priesthood he is on their side.

  79. @Travis
    true, we do not ned them , but taxing the employers 25% would discourage firms from hiring them. As it stands now there is little reason for firms not to hire these lower wage Indians...most of the managers hiring the Indians are themselves Indians and they know the H1B visa holders are not able to quit because they risk losing their visas. and thus they find it easier to manage the Indian H1B visa workers.

    eliminating the H1b Visa program would be ideal, but our GOP congress will not even consider eliminating the diversity lottery, nor will they fund a wall. It will be more likely for congress to end to the diversity lottery than an end to the h1B visa program. But a 25% tax on firms is possible, and would be popular with Americans.

    But a 25% tax on firms is possible, and would be popular with Americans.

    I like it. But are you sure it would be popular? Maybe the anti-taxers would be able to spin it as a bad thing. Mom and Pop would bear the burden, etc.

  80. @Mishra

    We do not need any H-1B workers. None.
     
    Yeah, but just think of the smashing little restaurants they'll all open when they get laid off. Much better than all y'all wypipo who just complain about yo country bein' wrecked.

    Much better than all y’all wypipo who just complain about yo country bein’ wrecked.

    Are you in my country? And why did you offer a comparative that insults white people? If you are trolling for a race war, maybe the outcome won’t be the Orwellian future you pine for. Things do get out of hand once hostilities begin in earnest.

    And hostilities have not begun in earnest.

  81. Anonymous[326] • Disclaimer says:
    @Seth Largo
    I've been watching episodes of Forensic Files on Netflix. Every third episode features a forensic anthropologist calmly explaining why the skull with the blunt trauma on it belongs to a "Mongoloid" or a "Caucasoid." Then they talk about cranial capacity varying among racial groups. Then they recreate an accurate facial physiognomy from the skull. They are hilariously oblivious to the current year, and surprisingly, a non-trivial number of them are young and/or female.

    A forensic pathologist must, to keep his job, testify that there is no such thing as race AND be able to tell the race of a victim from a few scraps or bones.

    -the late Robert W. Whitaker

  82. @Autochthon
    Sadly, you are now correct. This nonsense is not, of course, what anthropology actually is, but it does accurately describe the current bastardisation. True anthropologists rightly do interesting work with shades of sociology, archaeology, history, and so forth. One might rightly include among them the likes of Louis Leakey, Mary Leakey, Edward Sapir, Benjamin Whorf, Howard Carter, John Hajnal, David Durkheim, Arthur Evans, Maximilian Weber, and others who have been insightful people advancing knowledge. We should not forget it, just as we mustn't allow mountebanks like Donna Zukerberg to undermine actual classicists like Richard Latimore or the drivel in modern departments of literature to overshadow the work of Professors Tolkien and Lewis and their ilk who may be toiling even now in obscurity, embattled by the overwhelming rot of modern academia.

    A blight of anthrax must not be taken to mean cattle are inherently worthless.

    A blight of anthrax must not be taken to mean cattle are inherently worthless.

    Well said. Liked especially your use of the word mountebank.

  83. @map
    What do you think of Meb Faber?

    I compared his TAIL fund to my risk management approach here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145103-saving-tail-spy-swoons

    (Seeking Alpha now paywalls older articles, but I made that an “author’s pick” so it will be free to read if you register there).

    TL;DR: His fund isn’t bad if you know when the market is going to tank; my hedged portfolio approach is designed to generate competitive returns when things go well, and strictly limit your risk when they don’t. I compare the performance of both approaches using different time frames there.

  84. @Pericles
    So, are you rich now?

    No.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    Well, let's say 'not yet' instead. Good luck!

    Oh wait, here's an idea: turn the portfolio suggestions into ETNs (and demo them to those who issue such).
  85. @Bill
    50% of people do better than the median return. Long Term Capital Management used known-to-be-outperforming strategies. Lots of really smart people with access to lots of resources spend all day, every day coming up with algos. Consider the possibility that you got lucky.

    See the section titled “Security Selection” here: http://portfolioarmor.com/

    The results from the live tests are consistent with those from 25,412 backtests over an 11-year period.

    You will eventually suffer big losses if you just buy those top ten names unhedged. Hence, the hedged portfolio method I mention there, where you can strictly limit your downside risk (something LTCM never did — not all hedge funds actually hedge. Most don’t).

    • Replies: @Bill
    You know that's few backtests over a short period on only one stock market, right?
  86. @Dave Pinsen
    See the section titled "Security Selection" here: http://portfolioarmor.com/

    The results from the live tests are consistent with those from 25,412 backtests over an 11-year period.

    You will eventually suffer big losses if you just buy those top ten names unhedged. Hence, the hedged portfolio method I mention there, where you can strictly limit your downside risk (something LTCM never did -- not all hedge funds actually hedge. Most don't).

    You know that’s few backtests over a short period on only one stock market, right?

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    It’s the largest stock market in the world, and the only one I make any claims about. And 2003 was the earliest year with the complete historical options data I needed for the tests.

    And the current live data is consistent with the backtests. In the backtests, our top names returned about ~1.51x what SPY did; in the live tests, they’ve been returning about 1.6x SPY’s returns.
  87. @Bill
    You know that's few backtests over a short period on only one stock market, right?

    It’s the largest stock market in the world, and the only one I make any claims about. And 2003 was the earliest year with the complete historical options data I needed for the tests.

    And the current live data is consistent with the backtests. In the backtests, our top names returned about ~1.51x what SPY did; in the live tests, they’ve been returning about 1.6x SPY’s returns.

  88. @Dave Pinsen
    No.

    Well, let’s say ‘not yet’ instead. Good luck!

    Oh wait, here’s an idea: turn the portfolio suggestions into ETNs (and demo them to those who issue such).

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