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In the NYT Opinion section, Ross tries his hand at delicately raising The Africa Question:

Fear of a Black Continent
Why European elites are worrying about African babies.

By Ross Douthat, Oct. 20, 2018

Emmanuel Macron, the youthful and ambitious president of the French, likes to talk about African birthrates. In the summer of 2017, he answered a question about why there couldn’t be a Marshall Plan for Africa by calling the continent’s problems “civilizational,” and lamenting that African countries “have seven or eight children per woman.”

This was attacked by some as racist, defended by others as hardheaded realism about development economics. Macron obviously felt comfortable with what he’d said, because he returned to the idea last month at a Gates Foundation conference. (Bill Gates himself has also been talking a lot lately about population control and development in Africa.) …

The existence of occasional exceptions only highlights how exceptional they are.

This plunge has happened without population-control interventions as well as with them, and because Western-supported population control efforts in the developing world tended to be inhumane and not-so-mildly racist, over the last couple of decades they have fallen somewhat out of fashion, with Gatesian philanthropists and politicians alike.

So why are they creeping back into the discussion? For three reasons: Because African birthrates haven’t slowed as fast as Western experts once expected, because European demographics are following Macron’s Law toward the grave, and because European leaders are no longer nearly so optimistic about assimilating immigrants as even a few short years ago.

In 2004, the U.N. projected that Africa’s population would level off by 2100 around two billion. Today it projects that it will reach 4.5 billion instead. This change in the expected trend is more likely a result of sluggish economic growth than proof of an African exception to Macron’s Law — though it holds open the possibility that Africa could be such an exception. But whatever the explanation, by century’s end two in five human beings could be African.

This trend would have revived a certain kind of population-bomb anxiety no matter what, but the anxiety in Europe is a little more specific than that — because over the same period, Europe’s population is likely to drop by about one hundred million. (Western Europe’s leaders are a vanguard here: Neither Macron nor Angela Merkel nor Theresa May have any biological children.) In the late 1990s Europe and Africa had about the same population; a hundred years later there could be seven Africans for every European. And the experience of recent refugee crises has demonstrated to European leaders both how easily populations can move northward, and how much harder assimilation may be than they once hoped.

So Macron is not likely to be alone in his fixation on large African families. An Afrophobia that a decade ago was confined to white-identitarians is likely to become an obsession of Europe’s technocratic center as well as its nationalist parties. The fixation will be genteel and diplomatic and couched in the language of development but the upshot will be clear: We must find a way to convince African women to stop having so many babies.

However, in addition to being cruel, past population control campaigns were often ineffective, so it’s likely that Macron and his successors will mostly fail in their anti-natal efforts. …

Which is why anyone who hopes for something other than destabilization and disaster from the Eurafrican encounter should hope for a countervailing trend, in which Europeans themselves begin to have more children. …

But focusing on European fertility has at least one moral advantage over Macron’s finger-wagging at African babymaking: It’s the part of the future that Europeans actually deserve to control.

Don’t Europeans deserve to have some influence in the outcomes generated by all Euros they give to Africa in aid?

 
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  1. tyrone says:

    “we must find a way to convince african women to stop having babies”?? why not try what worked on white women?……..it’s almost like it’s two sides to a evil scheme.

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
    , @Anonymous
  2. Lot says:

    European aid to Africa is tiny and dwarfed by European welfare spending on African migrants to Europe.

  3. Kaz says:

    Where was the climate change talk?

    • LOL: Bubba, bomag
    • Replies: @Anon
  4. BB753 says:

    “Don’t Europeans deserve to have some influence in the outcomes generated by all Euros they give to Africa in aid?”

    For our elites, the beauty of taxes is that almost every single euro or dollar is used against taxpayers’ vital interests. It’s like paying for your own demise.

  5. Anon7 says:

    [The U.N.] projects that [Africa’s population] will reach 4.5 billion…

    Plus

    …the experience of recent refugee crises has demonstrated to European leaders both how easily populations can move northward, and how much harder assimilation may be than they once hoped.

    Obviously, heads will roll at the Times for this. Which editor slipped up and allowed this to be printed? Although the title lets Times readers dismiss concerns as racism.

    However, I didn’t see Steve’s Scariest Graph, so I guess minimal standards were maintained.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @Hypnotoad666
  6. Trying to convince Africans to have fewer children by resorting to logic is likely to be about as effective as trying to convince feral cats to stop breeding.

    Good luck in both endeavors.

  7. AndrewR says:

    OT – Buried in the bottom of last post’s comments:

    CNN shames “Dear Abby” for daring to suggest that assimilation might not be the most evil thing ever.

    https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/10/20/opinions/dear-abby-what-you-got-wrong-on-indian-names-hosseini/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    , @anon
  8. Jefferson says:

    It’s racist to blame Africans for being responsible for the vast majority of the overpopulation in the world but it’s not racist to put up pictures of White babies like The Guardian did and blame White people breeding for why the earth is so overpopulated.

    • Replies: @Anon
  9. Anonymous[244] • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t think aid makes a big difference in African fertility. Most of the aid ends up in the governments’ and oligarchs’ hands and doesn’t reach the masses, who nonetheless have high fertility.

    It’s generally the most decadent, nihilistic, infertile, and spiritually exhausted people who focus on trying to suppress fertility elsewhere. It’s a sign of weakness and lack of self-confidence. Just like how post menopausal childless wine aunts and cat ladies are the most bitter and cynical about the vitality of young mothers. And it doesn’t work. The decadent WASP elite who were obsessed with Catholic fertility in the last century still lost their ascendancy.

    What Europe needs is high native fertility so it has the demographic resources to deal with the “Eurafrican encounter”.

  10. Daniel H says:

    >>Which is why anyone who hopes for something other than destabilization and disaster from the Eurafrican encounter should hope for a countervailing trend, in which Europeans themselves begin to have more children. …

    The race to replace. That would end well.

    Europe is already very crowded. Putting 3 times as many Europeans in the land mass is a dubious advance over importing 1 billion Africans but an advance anyway, I guess.

    All this is so unnecessary. Just a little backbone and will would go 98% of the way in deflecting the problem. Alas.

    • Replies: @dvorak
  11. “…European leaders are no longer nearly so optimistic about assimilating immigrants as even a few short years ago.”

    Even at this late date, it’s astounding this admission appears in mainstream media. Are our elites glimpsing horizon of their powers?

  12. However, in addition to being cruel, past population control campaigns were often ineffective, so it’s likely that Macron and his successors will mostly fail in their anti-natal efforts.

    The solution is free Gender Studies degrees for all African Women. Humane, Progressive, and Effective fertility reduction.

  13. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:

  14. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jefferson

    It’s racist to blame Africans for being responsible for the vast majority of the overpopulation in the world but…

    This is easily fixed if we accept race-ism as truth, necessity, and a good.

    Be a True Race-ist.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
  15. I’m not completely sure of how the western-supported population control efforts in the developing world tended to be inhumane. Other than those defective ribbed-ones that passed through Q/A in Shenzhen, condoms don’t seem inhumane at all.

    Besides that stupidity, and a couple more instances of virtue signalling, the guy’s writing seems reasonably fair, at least not head-explosion-detonatingly leftist.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    , @Desiderius
  16. Beckow says:

    Right, Macron and Gates will save us. The technocrats will ride to the rescue and the 4 billion will maybe only be 3.5 billion. Although one way to make sure that African women don’t have babies would be for Macron to marry them.

    • Replies: @dvorak
  17. Rosie says:

    The fixation will be genteel and diplomatic and couched in the language of development but the upshot will be clear: We must find a way to convince African women to stop having so many babies.

    From his lips to God’s ears.

    • Replies: @donut
  18. Bubba says:
    @Lot

    Yes, it’s the welfare that keeps the tsunami wave of Africans, Pakistanis, Indians and the rest of the 3rd world immigrants flooding Europe.

    Europe will end up like South Africa – whites surrendered (actually forced to surrender by other whites), violent thugs took over, civilization ends.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    , @Anon
  19. Anonymous[734] • Disclaimer says:

    What a pathetic lot the European “elites” have shown themselves to be. Just like our own dying New England Establishment crowd: They were good at conquering their fellow White people, but horrible at stewardship.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  20. IHTG says:

    Unspoken here – Ross’ desire to ally with African religious conservatives, as typified by Cardinal Robert Sarah.

    • Replies: @Steve-O
    , @ATBOTL
  21. Jefferson says:

    The average African woman has seven or eight kids while the average anti-Brett Kavanaugh pussy hat feminist in The West has seven or eight cats.

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
  22. @tyrone

    What worked on white women was prosperity and wealth. It’s the procreation paradox. When they can afford babies, they won’t have them. And when they can’t afford them, they will have them by the dozen. Since there seem to be certain obstacles to achieving prosperity in Africa…

  23. Jefferson says:

    Don’t be surprised if in the future Africa’s most populated nation Nigeria surpasses The U.S to become the 3rd largest populated nation on the planet after India and China. From there Nigeria could even reach number 1. The sky is the limit for Nigeria’s massive population growth.

    • LOL: bomag
  24. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    European aid to Africa is tiny and dwarfed by European welfare spending on African migrants to Europe.

    Black threat is all the more dangerous because it is twofold. It is about both mass and badass.

    Consider Mexicans and blacks in the US. Or Chinese and blacks on the global scale.

    Mexicans and Chinese have lots of manpower. Mexicans and Chinese are valued for their manpower in assembly lines and farms. Blacks used to have manpower value to whites in the Age of Slavery and sharecropping. But blacks got unruly and their manpower value has gone down.

    So, Mexicans and Chinese have more manpower value than blacks do. But blacks got something else that is more potent and threatening to whites. Manhood power. Manpower is faceless and interchangeable. They are just seen as cogs in the machine. In the Iliad, most soldiers are manpower. As such, mere cannon fodder. In contrast, a few like Achilles, Ajax, and Hector have manhood power. They are idols and revered as heroes. They have what Paul Newman had in COOL HAND LUKE. Why do the convicts look up to him so much? He’s become larger-than-life. He’s come to represent the hopes and dreams of the entire chain-gang crew. Even big strong Dragline comes to admire him because Luke has the combination of looks, toughness, courage, boldness, wit, cunning, and bravado. He’s become a legend. Then, it is understandable why so many are heartbroken when Luke is broken by the bosses. They don’t see it merely as the fall of an individual but the dashing of all their dreams. He was their Great Flight Hope.

    West is mainly obsessed about three things: Sports, Sex, and Song & Dance. Because blacks got more muscle, they are idolized as sports stars. Because black men got bigger dongs and black women got bouncier buns, they are prized as sex symbols. Even if black women per se aren’t much desired, white women go out of their way to imitate the style and attitude of black women. And white women try to sing like black women. And black funk has become the main pop expression of the West.

    This is why it misses the point to just focus on the numbers and statistics. Like John Derbyshire said, the invasion of the US by Mesos and Mestizos isn’t as detrimental as the invasion of Europe by the Africans. Mesos and Mestizos only represent manpower. They will undercut US wages and mess up US elections, but they don’t pose a threat to white manhood and white self-pride. No matter how much PC goes blah blah about the likes of Guillermo, white people don’t feel threatened by them. And white people don’t worship brown guys who gripe about stinking badges. Also, browns, for all their problems, are not entirely destructive of civilization. Too many of them leads to degradation but not total destruction.

    In contrast, blacks are the single most destructive force against civilization. A city destroyed by a hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, or even an atom bomb can recover. But if it is taken over by Negroes, forget about it. Granted, NY and Chicago and DC made some comeback from black horror, but it took a A LOT OF MONEY. Also, the problem was less solved than pushed to OTHER communities.

    If blacks didn’t have manhood power, white people would coldly assess their uselessness and try to keep them away. But because blacks do have manhood power and dominate sports, sex culture, and song-and-dance celebrations, white people sensually and subconsciously worship Negroes as the superior race. The new Nutcracker movie says white girls should go with the superior Negro. And because white boys are now soul-castrated from a young age and made to worship black athletes and imitate black rappers, they find it an honor to hand over their women to blacks just like a peasant parent in the old days felt flattered to hand over their daughter as concubine to the noblemen. Since nobles were above the peasants, it meant social elevation to have a peasant girl serve the nobles. As white males are raised to be cucky-wuck white boys so worshipful of masterful Negroes, they find it an honor to hand over their white girls to the Negroes. Look at football culture in the American South. Even those GOP-voting Neo-Confederate dads find it a great honor to have their daughters go with some Negro football star. Countless pathetic cucky-wuck white boys cheer for black athletes who hump white cheerleaders.

    Now, consider China and Negroes. China has lots of manpower but they’re all faceless. Chinese in factories may build lots of stuff, but no one knows or cares about them, just like no one cares about all those Mexican fruitpickers who supply faceless manpower. Whom do Chinese boys worship? Black NBA stars. So, while thousands of Asian assembly line workers make Nike shoes and other such stuff, the only people advertised and promoted by such products are Negro athletes. And in Japan, the whole nation is now worshipful of the product of a Negro man and a Japanese woman because she won in tennis.

    So, the African threat to Europe isn’t just about the numbers and digits. It’s about a War on White Identity, White Idols, and White Pride. Because even a small number of blacks can defeat whites in sports, out-sing whites, and out-hump whites, a white social order will lose its own prideful identity. It didn’t take too many blacks in UK and Canada to take over as fastest runners and toughest boxers. It took a few half-blacks in Japan to defeat the Japanese. Already, French soccer team is all Negro. And UK team is getting there. And UK heavy weight champion is black. European track meets are now turning all black in many areas. And French pop music is all rap and hip hop. And UK rappers sing about kicking white boy’s ass. And yet, because white folks worship the ‘heroes’ of sports, sex, and song-and-dance, they are enthralled with blackness. UK royal wedding went all Negroid. To be sure, it was a white guy marrying a mulatto but how long before a white princess marries an African, especially when UK movies are promoting the New Ideal as black man and white woman?

    Manpower invasion of US by browns is a big headache but it won’t rob whites of their pride of identity. But Manhood conquest of the West by blacks will lead to the wussification and cucky-wuckerization of whites. But dumbass Ross Douthat would rather rant about a fictional vampire seducing Bella than speak honestly about the Negro threat.

    Being invaded by Mexicans is like being invaded by rabbits. Being invaded by blacks is like being invaded by lions. Rabbits can do damage but have no idolic value. Also, they won’t eat humans. Lions, in contrast, will eat humans. But because humans revere the Lion King, they become blind to the danger posed by the lions. Even as black lions devour the white race, whites will just be saying ‘AWESOME!’

  25. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mis(ter)Anthrope

    There is a solution to the feral cat problem, I’ve used it, but I don’t advocate that for the Africans. But securing aid to Africa and making them be self sufficient in food might be necessary.

  26. Steve,
    Ross is the journalist who ssid Blasey-Ford’s testimony was so credible that Kavanaugh could not be confirmed. He is both a false friend and an undiscerning fool. Why don’t you stop linking to him and pretending his columns are worth reading?

    #IStillLikeBeer

    • Agree: TTSSYF, Kylie
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
  27. AndrewR says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Douthat is the only NYT columnist I can tolerate

  28. Forbes says:

    That’s a lot of words going nowhere.

    Population estimates for the African continent has exploded, and anyone with half a brain recognizes a good portion of that growing population is headed to an already crowded Europe. Leftists are frantically rationalizing the benefits of such migration.

    In other words, a significant social and economic crisis is looming–and only racists mention it.

    Politicians and philanthropists are frozen to act due to political correctness, i.e. the crime of noticing.

    OK Ross, what’s to be done…aside from having another conference at a 5-star resort sponsored by NGOs suckling on the taxpayer teat.

    • Replies: @RVBlake
    , @dr kill
  29. Kirt says:

    If Europeans continue to reproduce at sub-replacement levels, they’ll go extinct no matter what happens with Africans. As E. Michael Jones and others have pointed out, anti-natalist propaganda designed to control the lesser breeds was most enthusiastically implemented by the white elites, then by the white lower classes imitating elite behavior. But even mildly suggesting that whites worried about low reproduction should get out there and reproduce will be met either with politically correct rhetoric about women’s rights and the environment or whining complaints about the cost of putting kids through college.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    , @unit472
  30. @Anon7

    Angela Merkel told the German Public this weekend, what’s most important: To have an eye on our prejudices, because very fast, they can become deeds, and then it’s too late…

    (I’m not quite sure, what Angla Merkel wanted to say, but it could well fit into your quote above, that indicates, that something’s just not perfectly right with the ongoing assimilation process, and this little something, I would want to add, are not our prejudices, at least not in the first place, and one of the rather astonishing consequences of the assimilation hindrances now was the founding of a Jewish Group within the openly immigration- and Islam-critical AfD party…).

  31. Jefferson says:
    @Bubba

    “Yes, it’s the welfare that keeps the tsunami wave of Africans, Pakistanis, Indians and the rest of the 3rd world immigrants flooding Europe.”

    The welfare state should be abolished.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  32. Don’t be surprised if in the future Africa’s most populated nation Nigeria surpasses The U.S to become the 3rd largest populated nation on the planet…

    You mean it hasn’t already? Now I am surprised!

    We only have 330,ooo.000 people.

    • Replies: @istevefan
  33. African migration to Europe is no problem. Sink the boats.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    , @L Woods
  34. Anonymous[250] • Disclaimer says:
    @tyrone

    Cutting off foreign aid would work wonders for this problem, and would be overwhelmingly taxpayer approved (listen closely Republicans). Want to help make America great again? Stop foreign aid and use the money towards building the wall and border security.

  35. Jefferson says:
    @Brás Cubas

    White wonen who have a high standard of living only pump out lots of kids if they are extremely religious.

    But if you combine wealth with atheism/agnosticism you get a bunch of White cat ladies or only 1 child on average.

    When you do not believe in a higher power you really have no incentive to care much about leaving a legacy behind and wanting your bloodline to continue long after you die.

    I have never met an Agnostic or Atheist White woman who pumped out a lot of kids.

  36. anonymous[280] • Disclaimer says:

    WHY is mass immigration and “diversity” demanded in ALL white populations and ONLY white populations?
    WHY is no global place or institution ever “too yellow” and “too black”?
    WHY is Open Borders a white-only ‘privilege’?
    ‘Diversity’ is entirely ONE-WAY: taking white institutions and populations and turning them non white.

    That’s why we say #White G-
    That’s why we say #ANTI WHITE!

  37. Anonymous[527] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    They knuckled under to Puritanical conformity to the point of killing off heretical witches (whether imagined or not) among their own kind. Their descendants are doing the same thing in the name of today’s ideology.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  38. unit472 says:

    Aid to Africa is just a bank transfer to from account to another. It doesn’t really reach ‘Africa’. It just flows from the national central bank of the African recipient to the accounts of corrupt local officials and ends back up in a bank in New York or London. China has joined this game but is coming under fire for A. making loans instead of grants. B. Bringing in its own companies and nationals to do the ‘work’. This neo-imperialist model will fail because the loans won’t be repaid because the projects funded by the loans will be unprofitable once the Chinese go back home.

    The greater problem will be even having physical contact with ‘Africa’ outside of the national airport and presidential palace of the African ‘nation’ once the Malthusian collapse begins. It will be more dangerous to venture into the countryside than when the first European explorers arrived 500 years ago because now the natives are armed with firearms not spears.

  39. They should give Euros to Africa. They colonized the place and robbed it blind. The issue is why Africans are coming to the U.S. We’ve always had Africans and don’t really need more. Let them go to Brussels, London, Paris and Lisbon, the places that always snickered at our racial unrest and now need a good dose of it just for the schadenfreude.

  40. How to stop Africans from having babies?

    Make them all Prime Minister of a Western European nation.

    • LOL: Dtbb
  41. istevefan says:
    @Anonymous

    I don’t think aid makes a big difference in African fertility. Most of the aid ends up in the governments’ and oligarchs’ hands and doesn’t reach the masses, who nonetheless have high fertility.

    Aid is not comprised of 100 percent cash payments to the rulers of African nations. It also takes other forms such as actual foodstuffs distributed to the people and in services such as medical treatment to the people. .

    • Replies: @Futurethirdworlder
  42. Besides being President of France, Emmanuel Micron is also a Co-Prince of Andorra.

    Andorra is a hole in the EU. You have to live there 20 years before you can apply for citizenship. Only a microscopic fraction of Africans could even qualify for a residency permit:

    https://www.second-citizenship.org/publications-on-immigration-and-dual-citizenship/immigration-to-andorra-for-high-net-worth-individuals/

  43. istevefan says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    And we had a pretty nice thing going at 200 million some fifty years ago. Our betters think 330 million is just a temporary marker on our eventual journey to 500 million.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    , @BenKenobi
  44. Jefferson says:
    @Kirt

    “whining complaints about the cost of putting kids through college.”

    Than don’t go to college. College is not for everybody.

  45. Anonymous[237] • Disclaimer says:

    Boy, Sweden is going to get really crowded.

  46. @Anonymous

    Cutting off foreign aid would work wonders for this problem…

    Cutting off something else would work even greater wonders, but we lack the nerve of the Arab slave merchants.

    • LOL: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  47. Jefferson says:
    @Eric Novak

    “African migration to Europe is no problem. Sink the boats.”

    Atleast not many children and women will drown because these “refugee” boats are overwhelmingly made up of single adult males, not nuclear families.

  48. bomag says:
    @Anonymous

    What Europe needs is high native fertility so it has the demographic resources to deal with the “Eurafrican encounter”.

    That would certainly help; but on the current arc, Africans will be coming anyway until conditions are equalized on each continent.

    Now, if excess Europeans moved to Africa…

  49. unit472 says:
    @Kirt

    Theoretically college costs should fall as the massive expansion of academia to accommodate, first the baby boom and second, the push for college for everyone meets falling birth rates. Mestizos also don’t seem to buy into the need for college at the same rate as other ethnic groups but all the facilities meant to admit million of mediocre students will still be there. Either schools cut prices to attract students or they will go bust.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  50. @Anonymous

    They already have the technology to win it. They just need the will to use it.

    • Agree: Kylie
  51. Tulip says:

    But focusing on European fertility has at least one moral advantage over Macron’s finger-wagging at African babymaking: It’s the part of the future that Europeans actually deserve to control.

    But why does Europe actually have a right to control its demographic future?

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
  52. @Reg Cæsar

    Well, we don’t need harem guards here.

  53. ‘We must find a way to convince African women to stop having so many babies.’

    That strikes me as a tad unrealistic.

    The least draconian solution is simply to stop sending in food and drugs.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
  54. @istevefan

    ‘…And we had a pretty nice thing going at 200 million some fifty years ago. Our betters think 330 million is just a temporary marker on our eventual journey to 500 million.’

    Immigrants come here when they’re young, then have kids — and usually have a lot in the first generation as they replicate child-bearing patterns back in the old country.

    The immigrants are already here. So we can lock the door right now. We’ll keep growing anyway. Perhaps if we do lock the door — right now — then we’ll level off at five hundred million.

    If we shilly-shally about, we’ll go well past five hundred million.

  55. We have a basic problem here in that all discussion of the issues assumes that blacks are — at some level — equal to other human beings.

    They’re not. You simply cannot assume that they will respond as Asians, or Europeans, or Latin Americans would. Accept that fact, and incorporate it into your calculations.

  56. istevefan says:
    @Jefferson

    Don’t be surprised if in the future Africa’s most populated nation Nigeria surpasses The U.S to become the 3rd largest populated nation on the planet after India and China.

    We need to keep reminding people that the USA is an outlier when it comes to the competition for most populous nation on Earth. Outside the USA all the contenders for this title are shitholes.

    For too long the globalists have argued, without opposition BTW, that the USA risks its future if it does not keep up with the most populous nations. I’ve been in conversations with folks who actually believe we need immigration to keep our population up because without it we would lose out to other nations.. I’ve tried to show a few of them the CIA World Factbook list of the most populous nations. But it seems that if CNN, NBC or ABC doesn’t say it, they won’t believe it.

    Some quirky facts I like to point out to them are that if we had our population of 200 million from 1967, we’d still be ranked #6. Or that if we had our population of 140 million from WW2, we’d still be ranked about 9th. .

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Lowe
  57. @Brás Cubas

    I have no idea why people (Americans, mostly) are so keen to refer to something as a ‘paradox’ when it’s not. Examples: the Monty Hall ‘paradox’; the Ellsberg ‘paradox’… and now the ‘fertility paradox’.

    None of those things is a paradox. The first two are the result of systemic adult innumeracy (manifesting in the inability of people to perform ad-hoc conditional probability calculations).

    Something is paradoxical if it is internally self-contradictory; increasing income enabling a woman to allocate her time to higher-value alternatives (compared to pregnancy and nursing) results, predictably, in reduced reproduction.

    That is such an empirical regularity – regardless of race, religiosity, or cultural taboos on fertility control – that it is not considered remotely controversial amongst demographers.

  58. @Anon7

    Which editor slipped up and allowed this to be printed? Although the title lets Times readers dismiss concerns as racism.

    Lately I’m starting to think there are actually some moles in the organization who are deliberately sending out coded facts and logic in the only way they can — i.e., buried in between politically correct headlines and banal affirmations of good-think.

    Sort of like a POW who blinks out a message in Morse Code with his eyelids while reading the prepared confession written by his captors.

    Another example may be the Amy Harmon article that Steve blogged about awhile ago: “Why White Supremacists are Chugging Milk” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/white-supremacists-science-dna.html

    NYT readers would never tolerate a straightforward recitation of the Hate Facts mentioned (disapprovingly) in the article. But they are so easily distracted by verbal virtue signalling about the bad intentions of the bad people on the other side that they can’t notice that the only hard facts in the article are entirely anti-PC. This is confirmed by the borderline retarded reader comments for the Harmon article. 90% just say “racists are mean, bad and dumb.” The other 10% state that they are lactose intolerant even though they are white, so racism is debunked. Not a lot of critical thinking going on in there.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
  59. @Achmed E. Newman

    They weren’t of course. That’s just current year boilerplate. Which means that next year it may be entirely different.

    Which would be nice.

  60. NOTA says:
    @Anonymous

    Foreign aid is a drop in the bucket. Or perhaps more accurately, a drop in the kleptocrat’s Swiss bank account.

  61. @Anonymous

    Anonymous, With cash and credit aid you are correct, but when you dig wells, add sanitary facilities and charge in to stop ebola outbreaks, and vaccinate the population you add to over population.

  62. donut says:
    @Rosie

    Smallpox and Malaria worked pretty well until the white do gooders showed up .

  63. @Jefferson

    China is the limit.

    Hey, hey, hey this is planet!

  64. In 2004, the U.N. projected that Africa’s population would level off by 2100 around two billion. Today it projects that it will reach 4.5 billion instead.

    As late as the early 1980′s 4.5 billion was the population of the world. Just for perspective.

  65. D. K. says:

    OT:

    Forty-five years ago, from this Saturday evening in America, was another Saturday evening in America:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Massacre

    “When I was seventeen, / It was a very good year.” –Frank Sinatra (Thursday evening, April 22, 1965) [per Ervin Drake (1961)]

  66. @AndrewR

    Just trying to read Sarah Hossieni’s comment made me weary. Same old song. So let me say this;

    Nietzsche said that the difference between Greece and Rome was that the eyes of Greek statues lacked irises and pupils while later Roman statues had both. Of course he didn’t mean this literally, he was stretching a point to make a point. And the point was that the Greek statue of the classical era was of an idealized type, a body and a face that resembled those composites we see today in which a single image of a face is created out of a thousand overlays. All the uniqueness has been ironed out.

    In contrast, Roman statues were portraits of particular individuals. The face was unique, with a real person’s nose, eyes, ears and mouth and age lines. Seeing it for the first time you would, if you knew the model, instantly recognize them in the bust.

    Likewise, when we communicate we can speak in general or in particular terms. Some literature of the past thought to express itself in eternal verities. Modern literature often delves into the minutae of the moment. The former can degrade into mere formalism, the latter into a simple list.

    Now when we read articles like the one in the link provided in which a woman complains to Abby about the advice Abby gives regarding what to name a mixed-race or mixed-nationality child, we are being asked to listen to her story. She informs Abby just what she finds “extremely grating” in Abby’s advice. She provides the reader with particulars regarding to whom she is married, the nationality of her children or of their names and so on etc. etc.

    It becomes evident that, to her, all these details are extremely important.

    To us it is noise. We’ve heard it a thousand times before. We know the form of the argument, the tone in which it will be presented, the hectoring, the lecturing, the way the author will introduce stories of abuse and oppression to appeal to a sympathetic reader’s pity….We know this because we’ve heard it all before. We know the genre, the Universal Form that the presentation will take.

    And so we say, “Yeah, yeah yeah, lady. We’ve heard it all before.”

    And she blows a gasket. “You will listen to me! We will be heard! And you will sit there, shut up, and take it. No more brush offs! No more mansplaining!” And so each woman lines up to speak her piece, to relate her particular story of how she suffered at the hands of the patriarchy. And all the other women eat it up and clap appreciatively, cheering one another on as each tear-sodden detail emerges from a face twisted in anguish. Each and every one of them has a unique story that must be told and listened to.

    Except they’re not unique. They’re all the same. And we men get bored by the whole thing, want to press on to real stuff.

    Every veteran who had been crippled in war did not feel the need to stand up in front of a group of strangers and share every detail of the ordeal he’d been through. But for women, the details are the real stuff. And the telling of the story is even more real. (Hard to believe but it’s true.)

    For men, the General Rule or Law is what’s Real. What can be distilled, reduced to a compact-enough intellectual formula such that it can be handily carried about is what we want—what is useful.

    So when we men, acting on our notions of what is real, tell women to get to the point or cut to the chase or omit some of the redundant details, they, meaning women, believing that the story is the point, feel as though we are ignoring or dismissing them and get even more angry with us.

    This is where we are at today. We’re beyond simple communicating with signs and symbols. This is War. And women will be heard! Every last syllable from every last Sybil.

    • Agree: AndrewR, BB753
  67. OT, but this site is encouraging to Biblical and Conservative Christians who are disgusted with the cucks and diversity cultists taking over their denominations (i.e., Russell Moore, etc):
    Faith and Heritage dot com

  68. Jonjames says:

    So what happens when an unfriendly demographic achieves critical mass in the military of a European nation, such as France, that has its own nuclear force.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  69. Steve-O says:
    @IHTG

    A really noxious mutation of this line of thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUspLVStPbk

  70. How will Washington Post and New York Times editors reconcile near future double-blind genetics studies that can predict with 99+% confidence adults who do not know Arithmetic or Algebra?

    • Replies: @lavoisier
  71. Jefferson says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    “Why White Supremacists are Chugging Milk”

    There was also an article about why some young Black men are joining White Supremacist groups. The “White Supremacists” that they were talking about in the article are Patriot Prayer and The Proud Boys.

  72. Arclight says:

    So long as a man’s social standing in Africa is tied to how many children he has, this problem will continue – something recognized by Waugh way back in 1932 when he described attempts to convince the locals to utilize birth control by the fictional (but recognizable to us moderns) do-gooders in “Black Mischief.”

    The cultural rot in the West is so deep that it’s only now becoming – in small and understated ways – somewhat acceptable to suggest that adding millions of immigrants from a continent that is the 98 lb weakling of the planet in terms of human capital just might not be the brightest idea if one wants to preserve a 1st world standard of living. Europe still has a chance to undo some of the future damage but its politicians seem pretty intent on ignoring what most of the people clearly want in terms of immigration.

  73. TTSSYF says:
    @Anonymous

    There is a solution to the feral cat problem, I’ve used it, but I don’t advocate that for the Africans.

    I do.

  74. BenKenobi says:
    @istevefan

    The fake and gay Canadian state has a plan called something like “Vision 100” where they intend to have a 100 million “Canadians” by the year 2100.

    • Replies: @BB753
  75. There are way too many humans on the planet already. Why is that so hard for otherwise intelligent people, like Douthat, to understand?

  76. I’ve said this before: any demographic projection that purports to forecast population a hundred years hence, is doomed to ridicule.

    Demographic forecasting is not as ideologically- and financially-compromised as climate forecasting, but it’s close (and climate forecasts are orders of magnitude worse, because climate is orders of magnitude more complex then economies or populations).

    Disclosure: I built a forecasting front-end (where all the inputs are determined) for the Victorian government’s demographic model. I know the model inside-out, including the solution mechanism – which has to be iterative to account for the change in births due to net migration of fertile-age women. It’s state-of-the-art (circa a year ago, and nothing has changed since).

    And I can say this without fear of contradiction: compared to econometrics, demography is worse than astrology.
    .

    Forecasting is hard, and demographic forecasting is performed pretty shittily. It’s almost always done in ‘reduced form’, and rarely with a ‘structural form’ model (and attempts at structural-form modelling are terrible and fail the most basic attempts at historical validation).

    One of the revolutions in econometric modelling started happening in the 1970s; it was the change from reduced-form models towards structural-form, behavioural models.

    That change coincided with the famous ‘Lucas Critique[1]‘, and because of that coincidence, Lucas is credited with fomenting the change – however my mentor (Peter Dixon) had a structural-form model (one that eventually became ORANI[2]) as the core of his PhD dissertation (Harvard, 1974); the ORANI book was included in the (then-)prestigious “Contributions to Economic Analysis” series overseen by Dale Jorgenson (like Dixon, a student of Leontief at Haaaavad).

    As computing power increased, the ability of modellers to perform ‘proper’ structural form specification, estimation and forecasting increased – although as late as 1999 it had not gone far enough to permit my own thesis model to complete in finite time: nowadays I could run my thesis model on my phone a thousand times an hour.

    Anyhow… moving on –

    In a structural form model, forecast paths are generated from behavioural equations that derive from some optimising behaviour… in reduced form, it’s just “time (and maybe a distributed lag mechanism)“.

    As a decent example: consider a demographic model.

    In each period, there is an identity (an equation that must be true).

    The change in population must equal births, minus deaths, plus immigrants, less emigrants.

    You don’t have to ‘model’ that – it’s true by construction. The components are the thing that you have to model.

    So now… how to ‘model’ each component?

    They obviously depend on different things (although with some things in common). Birth rates, death rates, fertility rates, immigration rates, and emigration (aka out-migration) rates all happen to different age groups due to different things, too.

    To their credit, demographers do actually try to forecast each component separately, and then use the identity to add up the components in each period.

    But here’s the thing: they don’t’ use structural-form models to do that.

    They use ‘transition matrices’ that are a combination of historical data and ‘numbers I think are probably better‘.

    No estimation; no technological change parameters… no ‘statistical’ modelling for each transition matrix (obtaining historical values is not ‘statistical modelling’ except in the most naïve form).

    Those transition matrices are pretty big, because the underlying forecasts are performed for each age/gender cohort.

    So there is a ‘hard-wired’ parameter for the death rate for 15 year old males in the year 2045-2046, and for the fertility rate for 23 year old females in 2037-38. Same is true for the age/gender profile of each year’s net migration.

    So you can see that for age distributions that capture ages ‘newborn-70+’ by gender, you have tens of thousands of parameters – none of which are formally estimated -

    • immigration probability by gender by age by year (2×70×80);
    • out-migration probability by gender by age by year (2×70×80);
    • mortality probability by gender by age by year (2×70×80);
    • reproduction probability by age by year for the fertile-female cohort (35×80);

    There can be some dimension-reduction (grouping ages into 5-year bins), but that only reduces the scale of the problem… and it also screws up one of the key outputs that is examined as a ‘sanity check’… the pyramid chart (everyone wants that in single-year age group, and if you use bins, the pyramid looks stupid).

    .

    The forecast for the population of Africa was obviously done with what I refer to as an ‘electronic ruler’ (albeit not a straight line: they’ve parameterised a logistic function).

    It was absolutely not done with a demographic model of the type discussed above – you can tell by looking at the output. In fact I could solve for the parameters used (and those parameters were not generated by structural estimation – they were imposed; again, you can tell by observation).

    Forecasting a headline number without reference to the level and composition of the components, makes for very very bad forecasts when you use the headline number as an input to back-solve for the components.

    A logistic curve generates two regions in which rates of change accelerate and then decelerate (or vice versa); it’s popular for things where there is a stylised fact that is hard to capture with a structural model.

    The stylised fact that demographers are trying to capture is the rapid surge in population from some pre-lapsarian long-term base, followed by a tapering-off.

    That stylised fact was observed across the West after the Industrial Revolution; it has structural explanation –

    • the rapid growth starts when babies stopped dying (the result of improved basic hygiene, like sewage removal and improved potable water but no fertility control);
    • population growth accelerates as lifespans improve (as a result of prosperity, but also basic hygiene and improved healthcare – technology);
    • the tapering-off happens because women reproduce less when they get more prosperous (i.e., it’s all fertility control).

    .

    Problem is, they way the UN’s forecast is parameterised puts the two ‘knees’ in the wrong places.

    Africa will stabilise at 2.5 billion or so about mid-century at which population growth will drop precipitously (i.e., the second knee will unfold using 2040-2050, not 2075-2080); those are the maximum-likelihood estimators.

    The technological change assumptions used by the UN are wrong, and probably deliberately so. That’s because the UN has distinct incentives to make dystopina/Malthusian/Erlichian ‘population bomb’ forecasts.

    [1] Lucas, Robert (1976). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique” (in Brunner & Meltzer, The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy pp. 19–46

    [2] Dixon, Parmenter, Sutton and Vincent (1982) ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy North-Holland

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Kylie
  77. @Kratoklastes

    So what year did Skynet send you back?

  78. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    One theory is that all other foreign aid is a cover for foreign aid to one specific nation and any hint that that should be touched is instant political suicide. It’s just a theory though.

  79. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonjames

    The French should be presented with a clear and unequivocal demand: boot the beurs or denuclearize a la South Africa, and for the same reason.

  80. dvorak says:
    @Daniel H

    Europe is already very crowded.

    Poland is very crowded? Norway? Ireland? Scotland? France? Spain?

    Only White Nationalism, e.g. FDR’s New Deal, could have a pro-natal effect on white women.

  81. Frank G says:

    Ross Douthat is a huge pussy.

  82. Ed says:

    Macron is 40. He really should consider leaving his wife that is 25 years his senior and get on with things.

    • Replies: @Truth
  83. Ed says:

    If the West was seriously concerned about population growth in Africa, they’d just ignore it like the rest of the world. Instead billions are directly given to African governments in aid by Western governments. Billions more via NGOs and others that are either seeking their way into heaven or a Kristof column.

  84. Truth says:
    @Ed

    She really should consider leaving her husband that is 25 years her senior…

    FIFY.

    More elite, connected Trannies; and the African population thing is another hoax like Avian flu and global warming, that you Bimbos are constantly falling fall.

    • Replies: @bomag
    , @blackbrit
  85. dvorak says:
    @Beckow

    Although one way to make sure that African women don’t have babies would be for Macron to marry them.

    immovable object vs. irresistible force. Outcome uncertain.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  86. Macron doesn’t have any biological children? There are other kinds?

  87. @Kratoklastes

    As Marx would have said, the purpose is not to predict the future, it is to change the future. A future with 3 billion extra Africans is a pretty bad one, but it can be mitigated with some mild steps, as long as we finally get started really soon. But first elites have to notice what the UN has been forecasting since 2012.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Kratoklastes
  88. @istevefan

    It’s not just gov aid either. Thousands of churches go on aid missions to Africa every year as well as NGOs like Drs without borders.

    • Agree: Desiderius, RVBlake
  89. @Anonymous

    I’ve mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, pure altruistic aid is stupid. But it is useful as leverage and I prefer diplomacy to imperialism or war. Example: Trump’s current threat to Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras to drop aid if the caravan comes through.

  90. L Woods says:
    @Anonymous

    All they have to do is sink the damn rafts. That’s it.

    • Replies: @Expletive Deleted
  91. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but for a truly frightening look at what an elite “liberal” sensibility finds totally reasonable, Noah Millman takes the cake:

    The deaths of tens or even hundreds of millions of Africans from war, famine and disease would be a calamity of world-historical proportions. If we in the developed world were simply to look on, that failure to act to save our fellows would effectively define our civilization. If, instead, we absorbed the African population, that would mean a more dramatic demographic transformation of the developed world than we have have ever seen.

    The man genuinely seems to believe that we owe Africa a rescue, and that we’d have to adopt billions of them and demographically transform the rest of the world, rather than feel bad when they die.

    Weird.

    Notice, though, that China is investing heavily in Africa. This is a good thing. China won’t give the smallest shit about hurting Africa’s feelings, or telling them to have fewer kids, or forcibly aborting women if they still get pregnant. And once China is involved, the West will feel much better about saying “hell, no, we won’t take your surplus Africans, China. You’re on your own.”

    • Agree: Desiderius
  92. L Woods says:
    @Eric Novak

    And leave the survivors to the sharks. ~70 IQs notwithstanding, I’d wager they’d learn their lesson promptly.

  93. Give Planned Parenthood a massive tax break to move their HQ to Lagos.

  94. Anon[395] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    We are probably going to be spending far more in foreign aid, not less.

    Europeans lack the emotional capacity for border defense in a media system dominated by journalists far to the left of even the Swedish political center of gravity. Add on to that a legal system that obstructs any efforts at deporting illegal migrants.

    But North Africans don’t have this problem, they aren’t bothered by shooting invaders. And Europeans don’t care so much about brown-on-brown or brown-on-black violence.

    The strongest anti-refugee argument with moderates is when it is pointed out that resettlement of one invader in the West could pay for the upkeep of 5-10 refugees in the Third World.

    In an alternate timeline, the Germans coughed up more cash to Erdogan, and the Merkeljugend army of occupation never arrived.

  95. bomag says:
    @Anon

    You overstate the case.

    If blacks didn’t have manhood power, white people would coldly assess their uselessness and try to keep them away.

    Which is pretty much how things are. The US is largely as segregated now as ever before.

    Don’t mistake some celebrity worship for what people want at the end of the day.

    • Replies: @Anon
  96. “(Western Europe’s leaders are a vanguard here: Neither Macron nor Angela Merkel nor Theresa May have any biological children”

    We should send them all our women who are like Macron, Merkel and May. The African population would plummet and stabilize to something reasonable.

  97. bomag says:
    @Truth

    …the African population thing is another hoax…

    Africa’s available nutrient phosphorus, and wildlife agree: there’s too many already.

    This horror movie is going even deeper into the woods.

    • Agree: Kylie
  98. Maus says:

    I try not to be too cynical, but a fertility contest is highly unlikely to succeed, either in decreasing Africans’ or increasing Europeans’. It is more realistic, though somewhat morbid, to stop trying to cure Ebola. Simply quarantine African travel and let nature take its course. Then Steve’s scary graph gets a confounding variable that turns the line towards the zero axis rather than ever upwards and away.

  99. fish says:
    @Anon

    Looks likes Tinys gots hisself a ghostswriterz.

  100. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @dvorak

    immovable object vs. irresistible force. Outcome uncertain.

    When an irresistible force such as you
    Meets an old immovable object like me
    You can bet just as sure as you live

    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give

    When an irrepressible smile such as yours
    Warms an old implacable heart such as mine
    Don’t say no, because I insist
    Somewhere, somehow, someone’s got to be kissed
    So, en garde, who knows what the fates might have in store?
    From their vast mysterious sky?
    I’ll try hard ignoring those lips that I adore
    But how long can anyone try?
    Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight it with all of our might
    Chances are some heavenly star-spangled night
    We’ll find out just as sure as we live

    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give

    Fight fight fight it with all of your might
    Chances are that some heavenly star-spangled night
    We’ll find out just as sure as we live
    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give
    Something’s got to give

    Johnny Mercer, Something’s Got To Give

    “Something’s Gotta Give” is a popular song with words and music by Johnny Mercer in 1954.[1] It was published in 1955. It was written for and first performed by Fred Astaire in the 1955 musical film Daddy Long Legs, and was nominated for an Academy Award in 1955 as Best Original Song, losing to “Love is a Many Splendored Thing”.

  101. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kaz

    They are saving that for later. It is the strongest card they got, together with “legacy of colonialism”. However the latter doesn’t work for Eastern Europe but the heavy coal use in many Eastern European countries means that the climate change card will be a better universal attack.

  102. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bubba

    Israel is a de facto welfare state for Jews. It has almost no Africans, and the little they got before building a huge wall are getting systematically and slowly deported.

    A lot of the people saying “it’s the welfare state” are stupid in the sense that they advocate getting rid of all of it. When in reality, what you need is an ethnostate. The problem is that many European states have one, two or even three instances of appeal when you get denied asylum. And during that process you can get access to healthcare, education etc.

    The solution is to move to an ethnocentric model, but you need a revolution (mentally, socially) to get there. More likely is that white people are too stupid to understand this and will cut welfare for everyone, like the capitalists want, for fear of being branded ‘racist’. And then they will end up with huge amounts of third worlders because life, even with little or no welfare, is still better in Amsterdam than in shitholes like Lagos, Nigeria.

    • Agree: Malcolm X-Lax
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    , @Lot
    , @Bubba
  103. @Steve Sailer

    But first elites have to notice what the UN has been forecasting since 2012.

  104. anon[321] • Disclaimer says:

    The only way to stop African invasion of Europe is for Europe to reconquer Africa. People of average 67 IQ have no capacity to self-rule. They need to be told what to do like children. Europe needs to recolonize Africa, it’s the only way out.

    • Replies: @Anon
  105. Africa has served an essential function as the birthing place for immigrants to other continents for hundreds of millennia, and is the wellspring of species homo sapiens. We must not reduce African birth rates.

    • Replies: @bomag
  106. The man genuinely seems to believe that we owe Africa a rescue

    Not just this man. Tens of millions of people in America. They all believe we owe every citizen of the world poorer than us not only a rescue, but residency, citizenship and employment in the United States of America, preferably as Ivy League graduates.

  107. I wonder what measurable effect Western efforts, in the guise of UNDP/WHO/World Bank programs have actually had on population growth rates in Third World countries over the last 70 years. There must be studies out there, at least of individual programs. My late Dad used to work on this area in the 1950s, and his opinion was that local government efforts counted for far more. Of course, the foreign aid and international public health consultants helped, but the impetus and will from the local governments counted for almost everything.

    He used to say, back in the 1990s, that it was curious how the issue of population growth, which was the #1 public policy issue for economists and politicians, in regards to Third World economic development and international aid, in the period from 1950-1980 or so, had completely gone off the radar screen by the end of the century.

  108. Lagertha says:

    well, according to the reclusive (and misanthropic) Professor Linkola, Europe had no business ever helping feed & sustain Africa because it is a hostile, natural environment for humans to not thrive in. I remember hearing this in the 70′s and it sort of freaked me out and made sense at the same time.

  109. Cato says:
    @Brás Cubas

    Since there seem to be certain obstacles to achieving prosperity in Africa…

    including, inability to defer gratification, and low IQ. Also, the problem of multi-ethnic states, where tribalism leads to nepotism, leads to corruption.

    Just trying to finish the sentence for you…

  110. @Lot

    Same same.

    “European welfare spending on African migrants to Europe” is “European aid to Africa”, whether they mean it to be or not.

  111. anon[321] • Disclaimer says:
    @AndrewR

    Bill Gates has a lot to answer for. This is a direct consequence of his saving all those African babies with his vaccines, vitamins, polio and malaria medicine etc. Now all those millions of babies he saved in the last 20 years are all grown up and need jobs. So what does Bill do? Tell them to invade Europe.

    Gates recently wrote an op-ed in the NYT talking about how “encouraged” he was to meet all the “smart”, “ambitious” young people on his recent tour of Africa, and how “hopeful” he is of their future, as they are. Of course they’re hopeful, they are all hoping to move to Europe or America!

    I would really like to see Bill walk the talk and move his Microsoft HQ to Africa and/or India. We’re tired of taking all of India’s surplus population in the Pacific Northwest thanks to his company, the surplus population that Bill again helped create by saving all those Indian babies from starvation and diseases the last 20 years. Kindly move them all back to India or to Africa. It’ll also create more jobs for all those “hopeful”, “talented” young Africans and Indians he so admires.

    Time for Bill and Melinda to also move themselves to India or Africa and join their two favorite peoples in the world. Talk is cheap. Get moving you hypocrites!

  112. Big Bill says:

    The deaths of tens or even hundreds of millions of Africans from war, famine and disease would be a calamity of world-historical proportions. If we in the developed world were simply to look on, that failure to act to save our fellows would effectively define our civilization. If, instead, we absorbed the African population, that would mean a more dramatic demographic transformation of the developed world than we have have ever seen.

    Somehow I don’t think (((Millman))) is ever going to “absorb” a few million Africans in his national homeland.

  113. Kylie says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Very interesting, thanks.

    But there are too many Africans now. It seems likely there will be too many in the future, as well.

  114. Big Bill says:
    @education realist

    China is going to solve the African problem via DNA manipulation. Either that or we are going to solve the problem similarly and blame the Chinese. Kill two birds with one stone.

  115. @dvorak

    “Only White Nationalism, e.g. FDR’s New Deal”

    WTF was white nationalist about FDR’s New Deal?

    High unemployment? Stagnant productivity? Omnipresent government? The Dustbowl? Participating in the biggest white fratricide ever?

    Mass immigration was ended in the Coolidge administration. FDR would have re-opened it if he thought he could get away with it. He labored for years to get us into WWII, and was delighted when Japan finally attacked America so America could attack … Europe.

  116. anon[321] • Disclaimer says:
    @istevefan

    Howard Schultz told Starbucks investors that the only way for Starbucks to grow is through mass immigration to the US. More customers + cheap labor, Schultz’s net worth is a paltry $3B, he needs another $93B to catch up to his neighbor Bill Gates, or another $143B to catch up to his other neighbor Jeff Bezos. Think about that the next time you want to get a cup of coffee at Starbucks. You are enriching cuckroach Schultz.

    These globalist filth then buy up enough media and “experts” to publish fake reports to influence public opinion, telling us we need more immigration for our own good. Then they get the useful idiots on the left to scream racism anytime anyone wants less immigration. The elites in this country are the biggest fifth columnists anytime, anywhere on this planet.

  117. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    It’s generally the most decadent, nihilistic, infertile, and spiritually exhausted people who focus on trying to suppress fertility elsewhere. It’s a sign of weakness and lack of self-confidence.

    Yep, I agree totally with that. I’d go further. It’s people who have already embraced (and indeed welcomed) suicide for their own culture who want to persuade other people to commit demographic suicide. It’s the evil life-hating people who destroyed the West who now want to destroy every other culture on Earth.

  118. @Mis(ter)Anthrope

    Ross must feel the need to assuage the Narrative Overlords right off the bat with this cringe,
    “because Western-supported population control efforts in the developing world tended to be inhumane and not-so-mildly racist, ”
    If he gave it just a bit more thought, he’d realize that since the 50s, African population growth has been massively subsidized by both food aid, western technology, and high yield crops. The treadmill of food & technology aid to avert famine has been relentless for decades, yet no major Western leader is willing to state the obvious, “if you’re already barely surviving, it is madness to have more than a couple kids. If you choose to do so, you’re on on your own, and you sure as hell aren’t coming north to ask for more assistance as an immigrant….”

    • Replies: @dr kill
  119. Alfa158 says:

    The whole problem of Africa seems to have induced many people to forget a truism that I was taught in school, the military, business, and life in general:
    “Hope is not a plan”.
    Look at the population curves. If the West goes all out on a plan for economic development, and contraception what effect will that have? An African population of 3 billion instead of 4 billion? How is that going to stem the tide of African invasion? The demographic momentum is already baked into the cake. Short of general nuclear war or some new pandemic, or early continent wide ecological collapse, those people are going to be born. They are going to be aware of the benefits of living in the West and that millions of them have already moved north. Why shouldn’t they continue to flood north?
    Ross and others talk about pumping the native European birth rate back up over replacement level. How exactly is that going to stop The Wave? Do they think that Africans are terrified of babies, and that will keep them home? Do they think that all those new native Europeans will fill all the job openings so Africans won’t come north? The unemployment rate in Europe is already high and Africans aren’t coming to fill nonexistent job openings. At any rate most Africans don’t care about those jobs, they are coming for the freebies, safety and supposedly willing women.
    Do these Eurocrats think that once enough have come north European society will look like Brazil so there is less incentive to keep coming and the situation will stabilize? I don’t want to live even in Brazil, and besides, it will get worse than that. South Africa is not exactly Nirvana and yet they are being flooded by illegal Nigerians.
    All these bien pensants are eventually going to have to face the cold, harsh reality of numbers because numbers don’t lie, and numbers don’t care about your wishful thinking. They can either give up and roll over, or they can close land borders and start sinking boats.
    If anyone has a plan that doesn’t consist of wishful thinking I would be grateful to hear it.

    • Agree: bomag
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    , @lavoisier
  120. @unit472

    College costs fall? Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha…. Or, as the ever-fewer kids in Japan say wwwwwww…

    In Japan, they have a solution: more foreign students!

  121. Anonymous[350] • Disclaimer says:

    Emmanuel Macron is a complete and utter total ass. A stupid, vain, arrogant, brainless squawking Dunghill Cock of a man.

    Macron loves to preen and pose and crow about his ‘humanitarian’ credentials – so the tosser made loud noises, for the benefit of The Economist, about the derisory Italian attempts to impose some vestige of control on the ongoing alien invasion of Italy.

    Only the other week it turns out that the French authorities were guilty of the most pathetic act of limp existed hypocrisy ever. Apparently, an unmarked van of the French police snuck over the border into Turin, Italy, to sneak back all of *two* (2) ‘vibrant enrichers’ of whom Macron so loves to bait and badger Italy with.

  122. Anonymous[350] • Disclaimer says:

    Really, I simply *CANNOT* fathom all this faux concern and anxiety about the burgeoning population of black Africans.

    You see, that fount of ineffable wisdom, that lodestone and Bible of the political class everywhere, The Economist, has been lecturing, schooling and berating us incessantly with the message that ‘more black Africans = more “wealth”. So obviously, by century’s end we ‘will all’ be as rich as Croesus living lives of unimaginable luxury.

    Apparently, all it takes is the ‘right sort’ of Magic Dirt, which curiously enough cannot be found on the continent of Africa itself. So long as well follow that trivial little proviso, just get ready for your personal helicopter and gold-plated faucets.

    • LOL: bomag
  123. Religion makes natalism a cherished doctrine in Africa – the word Islam should appear more than once – Niger, 99% Muslim, highest fertility rate in world. Fleshing out Catholic – John Paul II moved to Cardinals from Third World nations – 40% by 2001. “The prospect of a Black African pope understandably excites Christians of all political persuasions.” (Jenkins). Catholicism = pan-Third-Worldism.

    If history is any guide, natalism alone is not enough – “for Mussolini demography was destiny, he carried out relentless natalist policies designed to increase the birthrate; 1924 giving information about contraception became a criminal offense; 1926 ordering every Italian woman to double the number of children that they were willing to bear.” (Wiki). (Ironically, Mussolini murdered his first wife and son.) Alas, he also partnered with a nation wildly over-optimistic due to, inter alia, widespread methamphetamine (Pervitin) addiction. The denouement: the withering of all the European empires.

    Our modeling keeps returning to the first major genocide of this century – Arab militias (Janjaweed) armed with Chinese weapons slaughtered blacks in Darfur to secure a cordon sanitaire around Chinese oil operations. Unless Asia collapses, at some point well before 2100, the drive to secure natural resources in Africa will lead to mass genocide of Africans by Asians. The numbers may level out at that point…

  124. Anonymous[350] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jefferson

    Think of the spam emails clogging up your inbox.

    “….Dear Mr So and So, I’ve just won the lottery…but I don’t have a bank account…”.

    For the sake of our sanity, all telecoms with Nigeria will have to be disabled by that point.

  125. @Kratoklastes

    I have no idea why people (Americans, mostly) are so keen to refer to something as a ‘paradox’ when it’s not.

    Because they’re not pedantic?

    higher-value alternatives (compared to pregnancy and nursing)

    I wish I knew what you mean by higher-value. Does it refer to the value of investment or to the value of return on investment? In either case, how do you assign non-subjective value to pregnancy and nursing? But you probably think I am being pedantic here.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    , @Kratoklastes
  126. Pheasant says:
    @Lot

    There has been a marshal plan for Africa on average every three years over the last 50 years.

  127. Pheasant says:
    @Anonymous

    Western medical aid and direct aid schemes (electricity generation etc) have lowered mortality rates artificially. Also much of this money goes to the ruling tribe/clique who distribute it patronage style.

  128. Anonymous[199] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    They knuckled under to Puritanical conformity to the point of killing off heretical witches (whether imagined or not) among their own kind. Their descendants are doing the same thing in the name of today’s ideology.

    Yes, that drive to kill the heretic lives on today. A real country is based on shared ancestry, in my opinion, and tolerates true difference of opinion.

  129. bomag says:
    @education realist

    The man genuinely seems to believe that we owe Africa a rescue, and that we’d have to adopt billions of them and demographically transform the rest of the world, rather than feel bad when they die.

    I read him differently; he seemed to just be riffing on the possible options for the future: either get ready to watch a bunch of Africans die, or give all our stuff to them and watch ourselves die.

    Millman may personally choose the second option, but I get the sense that this reflection of his was an admittance that he doesn’t have the coping skills to face the future.

  130. Jesse says:

    It’s always euro and cent. Never the plural. So the Europeans have given huge amounts of euro to the Africans.

  131. Most white liberals I know care a lot more about chimpanzees, giraffes, elephants, and even pigmies etc. than about illiterate black slum dwellers in Nairobi or Lagos. Seems like it should be easy to organize a campaign to reduce the African population by 75% in order to save the animals and traditional culture.

    • Agree: Rosie
  132. anonymous[234] • Disclaimer says:
    @education realist

    And once China is involved, the West will feel much better about saying “hell, no, we won’t take your surplus Africans, China. You’re on your own.”

    How does this work? The only response I see to China’s investment and infrastructure financing in Africa is to respond to the competition with America’s ow investment and infrastructure financing program…

    “A new $60 billion agency is the clearest sign the US is worried about China’s Africa influence”

    https://qz.com/africa/1423506/china-africa-debt-us-will-invest-60-billion-overseas-to-beat-chin-at-development/

  133. Getting in a baby-making race with the hostile over-breeding low-IQ hordes offers a Pyrrhic victory at best.

    Do whatever is necessary to keep them out — if they are forced to deal with the consequences of their own over-breeding (assuming they have the necessary intelligence) they will have a powerful incentive to practice birth control — which should be the only aid we provide them.

    Allowing them to destroy Western civilization through over-breeding is so obviously stupid it shouldn’t even need explaining.

    Of course we know (((who))) is ultimately behind this particular facet of (((their White genocide agenda))), don’t we.

  134. RVBlake says:
    @Forbes

    Are not Douthat’s black-robed co-religionists still preaching the sinfulness of condoms to Africans? The Catholic Church extols the expansion of African families then urges Europeans to welcome them into their homes.

  135. “Don’t Europeans deserve to have some influence in the outcomes generated by all Euros they give to Africa in aid?”

    I guess Macron et al could try to remember the Good Old Days, when they took all the money and had all the say in Africa.

  136. @Alfa158

    “They can either give up and roll over, or they can close land borders and start sinking boats.”

    If the biggest, baddest country on the planet is quaking in its boots over taking possible action to stop 4,000 invaders, how can one expect EuroCucks to affirmatively defend themselves from millions?

  137. @Kratoklastes

    It is not an “empirical reality” at all.

    Prosperity does not lead to infertility. Neither the Macronian-Gatesian proponents of African development (who desire infertility and promote prosperity as a means thereto) nor the Alt-Right lamenters of “mouse Utopia” (who complain about infertility and blame it on prosperity) seem to grasp this point. No matter which side one is on in this debate, it’s all thoroughly materialistic, shallow-pated stupidity.

    The sterility of the developed world is caused by the fact that here an endpoint has been reached. The civilization, the city, the perfected megalopolis, represents the limit of human imagination. This is the true “ne plus ultra” beyond which living and willing have no object. In the civilized mindset, children simply aren’t desired. The idea that one’s being is tied up in the destiny of family or tribe has been replaced by an identity determined entirely by the mental tensions of urban existence. And since these tensions comprehend only economic-utility causes, children, when they are thought of at all, are judged solely with respect to the individual’s crass and egotistical “balance sheet,” and are quickly deemed not worth the effort.

    It is to the city that these births are sacrificed. The glittering cosmopolis with all its sensual and intellectual enticements is what prompts men to abandon home and hearth, and lose themselves in its holographic images. And once again, it is this very same civilized mindset which equates this urban illusion with “prosperity.” The city man pretty obviously feels himself to be above the countryside. The wealth of the land is as nothing to him; the country gentleman, abounding in fields and flocks, is to him a comic figure. Only the city’s intellectualized money-values hold any worth for his eye. Once this fateful step is taken, the depopulation of any civilized people is tragically assured.

    Africans exist in the main outside of this world of illusion, and their fecundity is an entirely natural phenomenon which is being most unwisely assisted by Western technology. Those Africans who head north are the exceptions who are already “European at heart” and have heard the siren song of the city. They will not be nearly as prolific in their new environs, and within a generation or two will succumb to the same sub-replacement fertility that has devastated their European hosts. This is the manner in which cities have always operated, drawing ever fresh streams of humanity from the countryside into their own sterile corridors, until the entire world is exhausted.

    Ross Douthat is correct in saying that the one chance Europeans have to avert this catastrophe is to start having more children themselves. But this means that the Western world must make an heroic effort to release itself from its urban illusion. That is the one end toward which any true philosopher or statesman would labor in these times.

    • Agree: dfordoom, jim jones
  138. LondonBob says:
    @dvorak

    Europe is pretty crowded, a small population drop would be hugely beneficial leading to living standards and solving infrastructure issues. A big reason for Britain’s persistent deficit problem is the continual need to upgrade infrastructure to cope with a rising population then we have the crushing cost of housing.

  139. LondonBob says:

    We have a very small population of Jews in Europe and we are well aware of what they get up to in Palestine, so we have a not so hostile elite. Add in blood and soil nationalism and I think we will be fine.

  140. @Anon

    This has precedent. In XIX century European powers paid money to Barbary Pirates. It was cheaper than police actions along North African coast. And even before that European countries paid “gifts” to Sultan. So, nothing new here.

  141. @Anon

    “more likely is that white people are too stupid to understand this and will cut welfare for everyone, like the capitalists want, for fear of being branded ‘racist’”

    It’s not lack of intelligence. They’ve been programmed by education and media since they first went to school.

    As a result you get some interesting cognitive dissonance that they don’t even recognise, like the student who believes in open borders but doesn’t like to walk through the black-dominated area of her university town after dark.

  142. @Anonymous

    The solution related to cats you are referring to I believe was actually used on Africans by Arabs during the Arab slave trade days. That’s probably why Yemen/Saudi Arabia have smaller black admixture than you would expect given their proximity to Africa. Although I remember that Prince Bandar appeared to have more than trace amounts of African ancestry.

  143. Romanian says: • Website
    @Brás Cubas

    Eastern Europeans do not reproduce either, even when poor. Neither do the East Asians. I think it is an ice people predilection. Others can do it too, but with a bit more difficulty. We were just more vulnerable to anti-natalist cultural trends than others were.

  144. “Don’t Europeans deserve to have some influence in the outcomes generated by all Euros they give to Africa in aid?”

    Assuming your answer means, “Europeans get to tell Africans how many children they’re allowed to have,” the answer is No. Your argument reduces to, “When I give you money, I purchase the right to determine how many offspring you have.” Sounds like slavery to me. No one gets to tell anyone else how many children they get to have.

    You sometimes mention having attended Catholic schools. I suggest you read up on Catholic teaching on artificial contraception, abortion, population control, and sterilization. The Catholic Church is the sworn enemy of eugenics, which seem to like/love.

    The reason the Africans breed is because they actually have hope in the future. A good number of Africans are Catholic. A good number are also Moslem, and Moslems have hope in the future. Both groups profess belief in a benevolent and providential God.

    Europeans also used to do that. At one time, European refugees (or colonists/pioneers/explorers/settlers/frontiersmen, whatever sounds better to you than “refugee”) swarmed over Africa and the Americas in search of a new homeland. If the Europeans still believed in God, and still reproduced, then they’d be able to defend their own turf.

    It’s the Macron’s of the world, and it seems you as well, who fear the future. It’s the weird thing about people who harp over and over about racial disparity in IQ, that they seldom seem to have large families themselves. Just like Hillary Clinton forgetting about the electoral college, they seem to have forgotten about how Darwinism works. The future belongs to the breeders.

    So, Ross Douthat is correct, morally. The alternative consists of exporting to Africa either a.) the same culturally and morally destructive forces (feminism, individualism, etc.) that have shattered America, or b.) the sorts of gross human rights abuses (forced abortion, forced sterilization, etc.) that gave eugenics and population control their richly deserved bad name.

  145. @Anonymous

    There is a natural solution to the problem of African over-population, it’s called death.

    Guilt stricken honky’s have largely eradicated nature’s time honored methods of population control: famine and disease.

    It’s time to stop the meddling.

  146. Instead of “The Most Important Chart in the World,” I suggest some alternative euphemisms:

    –The Black Peril

    –The Excess Population

    –The Three Billion Other People I’d Rather Not See Come into the World

    Or some other way of reminding yourself that “populations” consist of specific human beings, each just as much made in the image and likeness of God as you are. Might help inform the conversation.

    • Troll: Chrisnonymous
    • Replies: @Lowe
  147. Rosie says:
    @dfordoom

    Yep, I agree totally with that. I’d go further. It’s people who have already embraced (and indeed welcomed) suicide for their own culture who want to persuade other people to commit demographic suicide. It’s the evil life-hating people who destroyed the West who now want to destroy every other culture on Earth.

    I want Africans to stop having so many babies not because I hate life, but rather because I am horrified at the idea of living in a world with no elephants, lions, giraffes, etc.

    • Agree: fish
    • Replies: @Gordo
    , @dfordoom
  148. The population-growth itself would not be a problem, if it does not outstrips economic-growth.

    Some countries like Ghana, Senegal, Kenya and Egypt could – with structural reforms- easily clock in at 9/10% gdp-growth-rate or even get close to the South-Korean levels of 12% back then. They might even start to compete for labor-intensive industries like garment or shoes.

    In this case development-loans, like the ones Vietnam & Thailand received, would be the turbo-charger. Same for the Chinese loans/investment.

    Without the deep reforms and non-existing family-planning programs these countries would growing at 4-8%, while having a population-growth of 2%. This prevents around 25 to 40% of young people, who enter the labor-market every year, of getting a formal job with regular payment.

    The bitter aspect: It’s not the farmer-son, who never finished school, who can’t find a job. It’s the lower-middle class children, where the family paid for school/training/college. These young people are humiliated and have to compete with the unskilled for the same jobs. Their families don’t have the connections to get a job in public service or big companies.

    They – the lower-ranked graduates – crowd out the unskilled & rural migrants in the urban jobs.

    In the end the unskilled & rural migrants either languish in the slums/villages or play lottery with a trip towards Europe.

    It’s not per se the population-growth. After all for instance the Vietnamese are still growing by nearly 1 million babies per year, but it’s just 1%. The deep reforms the Viets made in the late 1980s, now leads to around 1.2 million jobs per year.

    If all Sub-Saharan countries could reach the level of Ruanda/Ghana/Senegal/Kenya, in fields like education/governance, this alone would already be a massive improvement.

    I truly hope Kagame can turn Ruanda into a poor man’s Singapore (TM). This would so much pressure on the other African leaders.

    Illegal migrants will be shot at. But not at Europe’s borders. It will at the borders of semi-functional African countries and the dysfunctional ones. Mark my words.

  149. Gordo says:

    Whats the point in having armies navies, air forces, nuclear weapons, when we ar being invaded and offer no resistance?

  150. Gordo says:
    @Rosie

    I want Africans to stop having so many babies not because I hate life, but rather because I am horrified at the idea of living in a world with no elephants, lions, giraffes, etc.

    Agreed, and the new Chinese and Indian overlords in Africa ain’t exactly animal lovers, though the Chinese do love that white rhino horn.

  151. As the old song goes “It’s a Long Way to Tipperary”. And it’s an equally long way to 2100. A lot could happen—like a catastrophic famine, major war or disease epidemic (not just limited to The Dark Continent). When mankind can’t control it’s fecundity, nature–or God–steps in to apply the necessary corrective. This business can’t continue at this rate. One way or another we will collectively blow our top. Pleasant thought, eh?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  152. DB Cooper says:

    Curbing population explosion is a prerequisite for developing nations to improve upon themselves. One of the first things MacArthur did when he ran Japan immediately after WWII was to bring in to demographers from the US to help check the expected population explosion in Japan. Same for China when it implemented the one child policy some three decades ago because China realizes that unchecked population growth is a burden to the society.

    Curbing population explosion in Africa is good for everybody, more so for the Africans themselves.

    • Replies: @notanon
  153. El Dato says:

    Fresh arrivals at La Cieutat:

    https://www.rt.com/news/441879-migrants-border-spain-morocco/

    One migrant died as around 200 stormed a fence separating Morocco from a Spanish enclave in North Africa on Sunday. Three others were injured during the push to cross into Spanish territory.

    Video footage shared on social media shows people pouring over the fence and onto a road on the Spanish side of the border at Melilla. The group was reportedly taken to a local reception center for identification.

    One man was treated by Spanish emergency services but died of suspected cardio-respiratory arrest.

    • Replies: @jim jones
  154. @Brás Cubas

    Well, he shows all signs of being a sentient AI, so naturally human procreation wouldn’t be a big priority.

  155. El Dato says:
    @education realist

    The deaths of tens or even hundreds of millions of Africans from war, famine and disease would be a calamity of world-historical proportions.

    Not really. It’s just that the world is more populated than ever before in the history.

    Notice, though, that China is investing heavily in Africa. This is a good thing. China won’t give the smallest shit about hurting Africa’s feelings, or telling them to have fewer kids, or forcibly aborting women if they still get pregnant. And once China is involved, the West will feel much better about saying “hell, no, we won’t take your surplus Africans, China. You’re on your own.”

    China is investing heavily everywhere (using funny money, Black Pigeon has something to say about that). Africans are ambivalent about the idea that having China in-house is the toppest thing since decolonization and moan about exploitation and alienation. While China actually mans its local factories with Chinese.

    But money talks. Especially in an old-fashioned patriarchal society.

    The Economist 2011: Not as bad as they say: Zambians—and other Africans—know they must get along with the Chinese

    “WE WANT the Chinese to leave and the old colonial rulers to return,” said the populist Michael Sata. “They exploited our natural resources too, but at least they took good care of us. They built schools, taught us their language and brought us the British civilisation…at least Western capitalism has a human face; the Chinese are only out to exploit us.”

    But that was in 2007, when Mr Sata, as leader of the Patriotic Front, then Zambia’s main opposition party, was eager to tap into growing resentment against Chinese investors in the copper-rich former British colony. He accused them of paying slave wages, of flouting basic safety and environmental standards, and of corrupting African leaders across the continent with their multi-billion dollar “no-strings-attached” deals. China threatened to break off relations with Zambia should Mr Sata ever be elected.

    Today, with the 74-year-old as president, the tone has changed, on both sides. China is now the world’s biggest consumer of copper, Zambia’s chief export. As usual, it is ready to work with whoever is in power. Mr Sata’s first official appointment after his inauguration on September 23rd was with China’s urbane ambassador, Zhou Yuxiao, who delivered a letter of congratulation from his own president, Hu Jintao. Though Mr Sata repeated his complaints about the Chinese paying low wages and taking jobs Zambians could do, he was more welcoming than previously.

  156. Pat Boyle says:
    @Anon

    The reason invasion by Mexicans is viewed as less threatening than invasion by Africans is simple – Mexicans are superior to Africans.

    On way to understand this is to consider the first European contact with each race. When Cortes marched into Tenochtitlan what did he find? He found an urban culture with large public buildings and huge monuments. In many cases what he saw were structures greater than the cathedrals in Spain.

    In general Cortes was the product of a higher culture. The Aztecs were largely illiterate and had no bronze or iron. But they did have large scale agriculture with irrigation and they had domesticated many plants.

    The Portuguese met sub-Saharan blacks about the same time. What did they find? No cities, no metals, no two story structures, no dressed stone, no inventions of any kind. They thought the blacks were a branch of chimpanzees.

    The New World was behind the Old World but Africa had never even started. Today we know that if you let Mexicans into your cities you get Los Angeles – a bit run down. If you let blacks in you get Detroit – utterly destroyed.

    I live in Oakland. We have Mexicans and we have blacks. Every Wednesday I let in three Mexican ladies to clean my house. No one hires blacks – too dangerous, too indolent. In short – inferior.

    • Agree: Colin Wright
    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Jefferson
  157. @dfordoom

    ” It’s people who have already embraced (and indeed welcomed) suicide for their own culture who want to persuade other people to commit demographic suicide. “

    Or possibly it’s people who cherish their own culture and genes who want to persuade other people (aka the competition) to commit demographic suicide. After all, what a triumph that would be, to persuade a people to passively accept their own extinction with hardly any violence (a relatively few violent campaigns against individual leaders and activists), simply by control of TV, films, publishing, the internet giants, education and academia. Surely a feat unmatched in the long history of genocide.

    I posted a Guardian agony column a week or so back, in which a “single, childless and desperate” 30-something was roundly berated by the commenters for wanting to reproduce. Evolution in action, reproductive fitness compromised by a deadly mind virus.

  158. notanon says:
    @DB Cooper

    yes – surplus labor drives wages down to subsistence levels leading to low demand which prevents economic progress.

  159. Ross Douthat from 2015 — Africa’s Scramble For Europe — NY Times:

    Today there are 738 million Europeans (500 million of them in the E.U.) and just under 1.2 billion Africans.

    In 2050, according to the latest U.N. projections, Europe’s population will have dipped to (an aging) 707 million, while Africa’s population will be 2.4 billion.

    By 2100, there will be 4.4 billion Africans – two of every five human beings overall — and Europe’s population will be just 646 million.

    But something significant is going to happen. In some form, a Eurafrican future is on its way. And judging by the stumbling response to a few thousand migrants at Calais, Europe is deeply unprepared.

    I say remove most of the African invaders from Europe and the United States and Australia and Canada and anywhere else the Africans have infiltrated. Back To Africa will be the battle cry.

    Douthat’s Eurafrica prediction will not come to pass. Marine Le Pen, and European patriots like her, will begin removing the non-Europeans and non-Christians from their European Christian nations very soon.

    When I use Christian, I mean Christian in the Thomas Hardy, Richard Wagner and Van Morrison sense, I am not talking about crybaby Christian treasonites such as Douthat who push mass immigration and multicultural mayhem.

    The Africans in sub-Saharan Africa must be isolated and quarantined to prevent civilizational collapse in the regions they have infiltrated or will attempt to infiltrate.

    Non-Europeans and non-Christians should be encouraged to leave the lands of the European Christian people.

    All politics is boiling down to this:

    DEBT and DEMOGRAPHY

    Monetary Policy and Mass Immigration

    Central bankers have used monetary policy and immigration policy to destroy cultural cohesion and territorial integrity and national sovereignty in European Christian nations.

    Tweet from 2015:

  160. Lot says:
    @Anon

    Israel is kind of a natalist state with the Haredi population not expected to work as long as they keep pumping out 6-7 kids per family. (The non-Haredi Jews have 2.4 on average).

  161. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @bomag

    Which is pretty much how things are. The US is largely as segregated now as ever before.

    Even if white men try to stay away from blacks, white women go to blacks. We now have Japanese women going all the way to Jamaica or Haiti to have kids with Negroes. White women have much easier access to black men, and they grow up with rap music. So, even if their white daddies try to keep them in white communities, black cultures comes to them through electronica, the favored cultural community of white kids.

    Don’t mistake some celebrity worship for what people want at the end of the day.

    Idol worship has a HUGE impact on how society sees itself. According to Richard Kapucinski the Polish journalist, one reason why African blacks used to be so docile toward whites was they saw whites as like a god-race. Whites came with guns and technology and scared black folks who were awed by white power. They didn’t just see white folks as invaders but as the master race. This is why a few whites were able to rule over blacks. But the new Africa is different according to Kapucinski. Blacks are no longer in awe of whites. If anything, it’s reversed with whites worshiping blacks are both tough athletes and noble saints(Mandela is the biggest cult in Europe, and 80% of Germans revered obama).
    The natives of Latin America also saw whites as akin to a god-race. And even now, why are so many browns so servile to whites? Because all those browns see white stars on TV and worship whites as the superior race.

    Why did Roman society fall? It was because the slaves became the masters in the gladiator ring. There used to be a time when Roman might and heroism used to be a Roman thing. Romans served in the military and Roman heroes were emblems of Roman might. But as Romans conquered more peoples, many of the captives were sent into the gladiator ring. They were slave warriors trained to kill one another, but the top warrior won much glory. As Germanics and Negroids were the toughest warriors, they became the Top Emblems of Roman Glory and Might. And Roman women, even elite women, were putting out to the barbarian and savage slave champions like white women put out to Jack Johnson once he whupped all the white hopes.
    This could only have a demoralizing effect on the Roman military. Here they are fighting for Roman might and glory. They beat other peoples and enslave them… but some of them, esp Africans and Germanic barbarians, are hogging the glory as the Great Tough Guys of the Roman Empire. What’s the point of fighting and dying for Roman empire when the center of the empire, Rome, is so obsessed with foreign Germanic or Negroid champions?
    And then, when the Roman military was filled with non-Romans as the empire needed more people, it was further demoralizing to the Roman troops. They used to be fired up by a sense of ‘we great Romans’ vs the barbarians, but they have to fight along barbarians whose loyalty isn’t even assured. Also, as Germanic and Negroid barbarians were bigger and stronger than Latin soldiers, they were prized as top warriors.
    The worship of power for power’s sake led Romans to prize non-Romans for their greater might and glory. Unlike the Greeks who kept the Olympics only for Greeks, Romans included everyone in their gladiator sports, and the winners were often non-Romans, and that meant Romans came to worship the Other. That signals the beginning of the end. Burned out by excessive power-worship, Romans were attracted to the extreme opposite, the spiritual egalitarianism of Christianity. That had problems too.

    • Replies: @bomag
  162. Bill B. says:
    @Anon

    Europeans lack the emotional capacity for border defense in a media system dominated by journalists far to the left…

    That will be true up until the exact moment that it is not true. And then things will happen very quickly.

  163. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pat Boyle

    The reason invasion by Mexicans is viewed as less threatening than invasion by Africans is simple – Mexicans are superior to Africans.

    As a collective. Like I said, Mexicans are better at manpower than blacks who, unless tightly controlled(as in the US military), tend to be unruly.

    But the collective is faceless. Chinese are good manpower as a collective. They will work diligently on assembly lines making shoes and lamps. But such is collective power. It’s not about individuality.

    The fact is heroes and stars are made of individuals, not collectives. A movie has lots of people involved. Look at the credits at the end. But the audience only care about the stars. (Cinephiles care about directors, but most people don’t care about that either.) Not many people have star quality. Even most good-looking people don’t have star quality.
    Anyway, it’s an individual quality. Now, individual success depends on the larger collective effort. Any football game has many people involved as coaches, managers, recruiters, assistants, medical crew, assistants, and etc. But they are all part of a collective. All the attention goes to a handful of star individuals. Indeed, even most players get little attention. Most offensive linemen remain unsung. It’s the quarterback, running back, receivers, and defensive sackers who get all the attention. And what makes certain people stand out is individual talent. What most Mexicans can do, other Mexicans can do. Any Mexican woman can learn to clean a house. But what Roger Staubach and Tony Dorsett could do was individual. Not many could do as well.

    So, you’re right that blacks fail as a collective. Too many are unruly and wild. But because of their tougher muscles, greater speed, and rhythmic ways, they have standout talents in fields that most excite the masses like in sports.

    It’s like wolves and dogs. Dogs are superior as a collective. Dogs are obedient and can be trained to herd sheep or pull sleigh. Wolves are less docile. They form their own packs but don’t obey humans. As a collective, wolves are far more difficult to handle than dogs. But as individuals, they are tougher and faster than most dogs. As such, there is more romantic myths about the great wolves than the obedient dogs. The recent Chinese move was Wolf Totem, not Dog Totem. Dogs are valued but wolves are prized.

    In the old day prior to electronica, a society that built huge monuments were seen as superior. But in order for such things to be built, the people had to favor the docile and servile over the bold and unruly. Japanese are hard workers but docile and servile and don’t excite anyone.

    In the current era of electronica, no one much cares about big things made of stone. They care about what is most exciting as electronic signals. And they happen to be sports and pop culture (that is merging with pornography as Disney churns out girls like Miley Cyrus). And this favors blacks because they sing louder, dance funkier, run faster, and punch harder. Who cares about the Great Wall of China or the Pyramids anymore? They care about the zing-zing of electronics in their gadgets and screens. And blacks can have Wakanda through electronica and silly whites can pretend it’s real.

    As Jordan Peterson said, almost all the attention, love, reverence, and profits goes to a few things.
    Every year, tons of books are written but only a handful sell most copies. Every year, tons of songs are released, but only a handful hog the charts. Every year, lots of movies come out but just a handful take all the profits.

    This is why individualism is really a fiction for most people. Most people are not individualistic since they have nothing special about them. (It’s no wonder that people turn to tattoos and piercing to mark their ‘difference’ since they have no other way to prove they are special.) If they were stress their own individuality, they would realize they aren’t special in brains, brawn, looks, charm, talent, etc. So, what do most individuals do? They circle around The Idol-Individuals like all those Muslims circle around the big black object in Mecca. Most individual revolved around the Big Individual with the gravitational pull.

    • Replies: @ATBOTL
  164. @Chrisnonymous

    Cause Steve is in a Boomer Bubble so he thinks people don’t ACTUALLY think that so he can remain a “nice guy”.

  165. The African Question is either going to be WWZ with feral retards attempting to overrun bastions of civilization or hoping someone gets that Lunar Colony up and running.

    2b on the move in search of gibs is not something you can hope to solve with goodthink and neoliberal dogma.

  166. BB753 says:
    @BenKenobi

    Why not speed up the process? They can have as many Canadians as they want in five years. India, Bangladesh, China, Nigeria Indonesia can spare tens of millions of nationals. What’s keeping Trudeau back?

  167. Jefferson says:
    @Anon

    “This is easily fixed if we accept race-ism as truth, necessity, and a good.

    Be a True Race-ist.”

    Coming from Anon who is in denial about Hispanic IQ being lower, so he still does not get why Hispanics would need affirmative action to get a job in Silicon Valley or be accepted into Harvard.

  168. Jefferson says:
    @Pat Boyle

    “The Portuguese met sub-Saharan blacks about the same time.”

    The Spaniards met Sub Saharan Blacks as well, which is why all Cuban team sports for example all racially look like The NBA and does not racially look like Spain.

  169. bomag says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Africa has served an essential function as the birthing place for immigrants to other continents for hundreds of millennia

    And they birthed an awesome set of children who discovered the wheel and went to the moon.

    It’s time for the parents to retire and let the kids have the place.

  170. ATBOTL says:
    @Anonymous

    “The decadent WASP elite who were obsessed with Catholic fertility in the last century still lost their ascendancy.”

    I read years ago that upper class WASP types had below replacement fertility as far back as the 1920′s. Is there any data on this?

  171. ATBOTL says:
    @IHTG

    Cuckservative demsrrealracists signaling applied to a European context is beyond cringe.

    “…the secular/racialist part of its far right.”

    As opposed to what, Ross?

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  172. El Dato says:
    @dfordoom

    That’s overall pretty stupid.

    This earth ain’t expanding and there is only so much goods to go around. No to mention so much ecosystem leeway.

    You will see enormous crashes in the next 20 years, be ready for death & food rationing.

    Libertarians and demented Silicon Valley Gurus wandering off the path of politicial soliloquizing dream of a planet completely covered in cities (like Trantor maybe?) and monetized to hell and back as if there were no real limits to growth because, you know, “Malthus was wrong once” and there was always been more oil to be found.

    Wondertech from glossy magazines isn’t looking so good:

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/a-critical-look-at-claims-for-green-technologies

    When a bright new idea comes along, it’s easy to imagine a fantastic future for it. Perhaps the best example of this is Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity, scheduled to arrive in 2045, which will supposedly bring “immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.” Not to be left behind, a former Google X senior executive says that “everything you see in sci-fi movies is going to happen.” Not just something, mind you, but everything.

    Compared with such utterly ahistorical visions, unmoored from reality, the articles gathered in this issue are actually quite tame. They promise only a long-lasting supply of affordable and clean energy—either through nuclear fission or through electricity derived from burning (yes, burning) CO2—and a surfeit of food from a variety of sources: vertical farms based in cities, crops that will need almost no fertilizer, and environmentally friendly meat substitutes.

    The magazine then basically says that none of the above really cuts it.

  173. dr kill says:
    @CrunchybutRealistCon

    Don’t forget earnest Christians and Mormons. They ain’t thinking about anything except the Eternal. Life on Earth is too predictable for these stalwarts of the West.

  174. dr kill says:
    @Anon

    I actually just finished listening to The Iliad on AudioBooks. And you may be righter than you know, as certainly it seems as though Gods are involved in the momentous but righteous stupidity surrounding Africa policy in the West. Mars and Minerva have not yet been stopped by Jupiter is a better explanation than many I’ve heard in the NYT.

    • Replies: @El Dato
  175. dr kill says:
    @Forbes

    Imagine regressing to the African mean.

  176. Well black birthrates in the West have declined dramatically over the last 50 years, so we know that Africans can breed more rationally if they are given the right incentives. Rural peasants aren’t going to use condoms if there is no economic benefit to having fewer kids, hence you are going to have to bribe them to use birth control. We also need a model for African industrial and agricultural development. Africans can’t compete in a free trade situation with the rest of the world, so African countries should be encouraged to put up tariffs and produce basic goods for local consumption. European and Asian investors should be invited in come in and set up factories so goods can be produced under licence.

    The problem with the current liberal/globalist model is it expects Africans to respond to non-existent market signals and doesn’t take account of HBD issues.

  177. Whiskey says: • Website

    There is no possibility, zero zilch nada, of Europe or Europeans doing anything from being overwhelmed by 3 billion Africans on the move for Gibs. Free apartments, cars, White women, they all “know” its true because they’ve seen it on a cell phone and heard about along with shaking a White man’s hand causes an African’s penis to disappear and killing and eating Pygmies and Albinos gives an African magical powers.

    Sink boats? The pussy hat brigade and cat ladies and screaming screeching harpies will go into Femen overdrive with that one. One dead Syrian toddler cause Merkel to lose her mind so terrified was she of the reaction from the harpy brigade that she opened the border to every ISIS deserter in Syria (who did she think was coming?) Knowing what would happen but just wanting to survive the harpies that week. Our society is deeply feminized and the interests of White women are profoundly hostile and opposed to that of White men. Have been since the pill, condom, and anonymous urban living freed White women to act out their most feral CW/Game of Thrones fantasies. Because tingles. Uber alles.

    African fertility is not going down. India has barely above TFR, at 2.2, and many states have below replacement TFR at 1.7. China has below replacement fertility, but so do many Chinese places that never experienced Mao’s One Child policy: Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan. Iran has below replacement TFR as does Algeria and Tunisia. So much for “the JEWWWWWSSSSS!!!!!111!!! Eleventy ruined White TFR.” Not much Jewish influence in Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia. To say nothing of Taiwan.

    Cities have been a TFR sink since Athenian times, and Roman authors lamented the rate of urbanization depopulating the countryside — taking in the people from the surrounding area who don’t reproduce. In places like Iran and India, even repressive male dominated societies experience baby strikes with the condom, anonymous urban living, the pill, etc. Probably most Iranian women agree with Democratic Arizona Senatorial candidate Kristen Sinema that “stay at home Moms are freeloaders” and should be punished.

    EVERY race save Africans experience massive drops in fertility when women earn more money, live in cities, have more education (literacy) and can buy condoms and the pill.

    What are African men known for? Naturally low IQs, high levels of testosterone, inability to defer gratification, living in the moment (aka inability to plan), high levels of interpersonal violence and aggression.

    Conclusion: African men alone among men of all other races (even Mexico is seeing declines in TFR) get their women to have lots of kids despite being better educated, more urban, with higher income. This oddly tracks the trend of hot, mid-late Twentysomething teachers wanting to run off with their 14 year old pupils despite being married to surface Alpha males: good looking and tall firefighters, cops, etc. These women in court-released texts relate a total obsession and state of being overcome with sexual desire for … 14 year old boys playing video games. To the point of wanting to bear the kids children ala Mary Kay Letourneau. It would seem the African birth rate is directly related to African men being the exact opposite of a Japanese salaryman.

    Go long on Ammo, a waterhole in the desert, and survivalism. Three billion Africans on the move for Gibs won’t be pretty and expect your government to enthusiastically cat-lady driven welcome them in.

  178. Wilkey says:

    “the experience of recent refugee crises has demonstrated to European leaders both how easily populations can move northward”

    Yes, it’s remarkable how easily African populations can move northward into Europe when aided and abetted by European navies, and by European and American NGOs whose leaders should be in prison for human trafficking, not receiving funding and tax exemptions from Western governments. It also doesn’t help that so many Western nations, Britain apparently foremost among them, have handed control of border police over to immigrant populations.

  179. El Dato says:
    @dr kill

    An intriguing thought.

    The events more or less romanticized in the Iliad (“inspired by a true story”) took place right around the time of the Bronze Age Collapse btw.

  180. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    The only way to stop African invasion of Europe is for Europe to reconquer Africa.

    Funny, but Somalis began to pour into the US once the US occupied that crap country.

  181. ATBOTL says:
    @Anon

    “They circle around The Idol-Individuals like all those Muslims circle around the big black object in Mecca. Most individual revolved around the Big Individual with the gravitational pull.”

    The big black whatever is like the big black meteorite in Mecca that muslims worship. That’s a connection that only a stoned mind could make.

    Looks like Andrea has got into some good stuff.

  182. @Colin Wright

    Oh, but your forgetting about all those “flies in their eyes baby tummy bloaters” TV public service announcements. You don’t want to have to watch them every 15 minutes on TV or the internet , do you?

  183. @ATBOTL

    Christian universalist obviously.

  184. @Brás Cubas

    I wish I knew what you mean by higher-value. Does it refer to the value of investment or to the value of return on investment?

    ‘Higher value’ means ‘yielding more (subjective) utility[1] than other available alternatives‘.

    The fact that women choose to reproduce less as they become more prosperous, is a very clear example of a case in which it is sensible to appeal to concepts like ‘revealed preference’ – modern women have a range of alternative uses of their time that is simply not available to people who are less well-off, and they choose something other than reproduction (and they do so in highly-systematic ways that are not significantly affected by culture).

    When you mention investment (and returns on investment) you also hit upon another reason for reduced reproduction at higher levels of economic prosperity: the fact that children lose their investment value (more accurately, the investment value of reproduction is lower and more risky than alternative uses of the woman’s time and body).

    To make this clear, it’s useful to compare ‘corner’ cases – say, a hunter-gatherer cf a woman in a modern western industrialised economy.

    For the hunter-gatherer, excess ‘production’ cannot be stored for very long: there is no way to ‘save’ any excess calories that are discovered. That means that the entire lifespan of the individual woman is quite precarious, even if there are periods of (relative) abundance.

    As the woman ages, her ability to gather calories for herself declines and her situation becomes more precarious (the same is true for men).

    If the woman reproduces, the children are a kind of ‘storehouse’ of excess production – and this generally happens when the woman is in a relatively good position to obtain sufficient calories (either for herself, or communally).

    The child then has some ‘capital goods’ characteristics – and the return on investment is the fact that children, when grown, will subsidise the dotage of their (and/or their partner’s) parents. The risks associated with this type of ‘investment’ are quite high (e.g., childhood mortality; the kid growing up to be an ungrateful shithead… and so on), but it’s still the best possible store of value.

    The fact that hunter-gatherers routinely practice selective infanticide during times of scarcity (not just for abnormal babies) is pretty good evidence that this ‘investment-like’ aspect to reproduction is a factor: in times of scarcity (drought etc) a kid’s NPV goes through zero.

    Contrast that with the modern westerner… any excess production that is generated (in the form of income beyond what is required to meet needs and wants) can be saved through much more secure mechanisms. The fact that their labour is deployed in conjunction with productivity-augmenting capital, also means that they produce more per labour-hour than they would in a society without capital goods.

    In either case, how do you assign non-subjective value to pregnancy and nursing? But you probably think I am being pedantic here.

    There is no such thing as non-subjective value (that’s a principle part of any sensible argument against democracy): in any case, there’s no neded to appeal to non-subjective alue.

    All that’s required to be able to say that women value their alternatives to reproduction higher than they value reproduction… is that the richer (and therefore the less-constrained) they are, the less they choose to reproduce. (I don’t like ‘revealed preference’ arguments very much, but this one is very very clear),

    That’s true within societies (wealthier, more educated women reproduce less – in the top decile by both, they do so at below-replacement), and it’s true across societies (wealthier countries have lower endogenous population growth than poor countries; the wealthiest countries have below-replacement reproduction in their indigenous cohorts – and even immigrants slow their reproduction after 2 generations).

    [1] utility, felicity, happiness, expectations-fulfilment… call it what you will, it drives preople’s decision-making. We can get all von-Neumann-Morgenstern in arguments about whether trying to characterise utility functionals is worth the attempt, but there’s no real point aregung that people do not try to make good decisions… unless someone is trying to make the case that people make decisions without thinking at all, in which case human action should resemble white noise (and even in the bottom decile, it doesn’t).

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @Brás Cubas
  185. Iberiano says:
    @Anon

    This gets so old…blacks vastly outnumber whites on the planet–including black males of athletic age who play in international sports. Yet whites in boxing (Wladimir ruled for nearly a decade) and MMA, and power lifting vastly outnumber blacks, proportionately. Same with Latinos, although proportionately to a lesser degree. With the exception of a few tribes in Western Africa, most blacks are not “athletic”. If anything, American blacks are and their cousins in Jamaica–but then, America couldn’t even produce a black HW champion while Klitschko was around. One guy from a relatively medium country, Ukraine, completely humiliated all but a couple blacks during his reign (one noticeable exception being Ross Purity, early in his career). Blacks from all over the world routinely get smoked in MMA fights, again, by a much much smaller proportionate population (whites). Yes, there are exceptions, but whites are vastly over-represented compared to their population, in MMA. Powerlifting is the same, and it is an international sport.

    • Replies: @lavoisier
  186. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Prester John

    One way or another we will collectively blow our top.

  187. Lowe says:
    @istevefan

    China isn’t great, but it is not a shithole.

  188. Lowe says:
    @For what it's worth

    I don’t think calling it the “black peril” would have the effect you had in mind.

  189. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Rosie

    I want Africans to stop having so many babies not because I hate life, but rather because I am horrified at the idea of living in a world with no elephants, lions, giraffes, etc.

    I like cute critters as much as anyone else. But the answer is not to persuade the Africans to adopt the western death cult. The answer is not to impose our sick diseased culture on to other people. Any society that hopes to survive has to keep one thing in mind – they must reject absolutely everything the west stands for.

    We have already persuaded the East Asians to adopt our death cult, and we have thereby signed their death warrant.

    One curious thing I have noticed though – a lot of people who agonise over saving the whales or the gorillas or whatever really do seem to hate life and to hate people. There’s nothing wrong with being fond of animals but if taken to excess it can be a sign of spiritual sickness. It’s definitely a sign of spiritual sickness that our society produces people who want to save the whales but who also think abortion is totally awesome.

  190. @Anon

    This guy’s no Tiny. He’s on our side, laying out a considered line of thought we don’t want to hear but which is largely correct and certainly important. We’d be wise to consider it.

    As he says, one thing it means is that just as the Europeans have thus far got the worst of it (Muslim North Africans and Pakistanis, while we’ve been flooded by nominally Christian and largely docile mestizos and Indios), so Europe will continue to be deluged by the more dire demographic threat – cocky, low impulse control, low IQ, low time horizon, high testosterone, sexually vigorous Africans who don’t fit into an industrialized society in any healthy way, but whose traits nonetheless often combine to lend them an aura of cool or at least distinguish them as subjects of interest in a way clearly not true of the other races.

    This natural factor, combined with our own culture’s present non-optional veneration of Africans as either fonts of saintly wisdom or avatars of heroic and authentic rebellion, might make it even harder for individual Europeans to stand up against the onslaught of African immigration than it was for them to voice resistance to previous third world flows.

  191. @dvorak

    Norway and Scotland are not crowded for much the same reasons as Patagonia or British Columbia aren’t.
    For instance , in Scotland, the bits where people actually live are very densely populated indeed (look at Edinburgh’s Old Town architecture, or any peripheral housing scheme)

  192. @L Woods

    Daren’t. Because then we’d be monstered by the media and the masters of the “international community”, and their servants the Yanks would come and bomb us back into the late Pleistocene for throwing babies out of incubators or some such.

  193. @PiltdownMan

    Tens of millions of people in America. They all believe we owe every citizen of the world poorer than us not only a rescue, but residency, citizenship and employment in the United States of America, preferably as Ivy League graduates.

    It’s Substitute Savior Syndrome, the late-stage manifestation of heretical, deracinated, post-Christians who hang onto the broad narrative of redemption, but edit out the Redeemer and write in themselves instead.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  194. @Steve Sailer

    A future with 3 billion extra Africans is a pretty bad one

    It’s monumentally unlikely that there will ever be 3 billion Africans in toto, let alone 3 billion more than there is now.

    Let’s also stipulate that an additional 3 billion white Westerners would be just as bad, because smart whites reproduce well below replacement and the bottom quintile (average IQ < 87) breed like bunnies.

    Fortunately, there’s not going to be another 3 billion whites, either: in fact I’m pretty certain there won’t be 3 billion more humans of whatever hue. My best estimate for peak human population is ~9.5 billion – 1.5billion less than Hans Rosling’s estimate of 11 billion (because Rosling models a static-technology, static-policy world).

    .

    Alarmist forecasts for African (especially Sub-Saharan African) population get some Westerners clutching their pearls, but those forecasts are fundamentally flawed – they assume that the trajectory of African population will follow the trajectory of Western population.

    One thing that Africa has that the West didn’t have: a previous example to follow.

    The Africans also have immense pressure from pearl-clutching whites – especially in Europe… EU fuckers have sought to prevent Africa from developing food security because they think that slightly-richer Africans will still breed at 6 kids per fuzzy-wuzzy, and then will flood northwards and fuck white women.

    It’s entirely misplaced, and in stark opposition the the data… which shows that fertility rates in Africa are in secular decline, and that decline is proceeding faster than it did in the West at a comparable stage in western economic development.

    It’s the same false argument that was used to try to prevent the “Green Revolution” in India in the 1960s and 1970s: India moved to a position of food security pace those who thought it would result in a population explosion… instead, India’s population growth began to converge towards Western levels (dropping from 5.9 in 1960, to 2.3 today).

    Africa will be able to do the same thing with fertility control as they did with telecommunications, where Africa ‘leap-frogged’ costly copper fixed-line networks and went ‘straight to mobile’.

    They don’t have to have Vatican II and the ’60s sexual revolution to remove social stigma from women’s fertility control – they can just point at Western experience and say “This is what worked – let’s do that“.

    The moment the West gave women the ‘all clear’ to control their own fertility, they grabbed at it with both hands – even the Catholics.

    Between 1960 and 1975, Western kiddies per fertile woman fell from about 3 to about 1.8 (i.e., below replacement); in that period Albania went from over 6 kids per woman, to under 2 – even though it stayed relatively poor. Singapore went from 5.6 to 1.2; Thailand went from 6-ish to 1.4.

    And if you want to see fertility rates in free-fall, look at the Gulf States – Kuwait, UAE, Dubai, Saudi Arabia… all went from the 7′s to 2.5 or less (even though the median individual there is ‘third-world’ level poor due to all the wealth being captured by US-supported despots).

    Anyway… point is, Blind Freddie can see what’s coming – and it’s not a demographic explosion of Darkies cluttering up the savannah.
    .
    As a ‘unit’, SSA’s fertility rate fell by 30% in the last 30 years (from 6.8 kids/FAF to 4.8 – FAF=’fertile-age female‘); as is expected, there is a very strong correlation between national per capita income and kids per FAF.

    Some African countries – Cap Verde, Botswana, South Africa – are already approaching the Western norm (2.0 kids per FAF). Mauritius is at 1.4 kids per FAF. But the reproduction rate is dropping in almost all countries.

    Everyone needs to understand that 2 kids/woman is below replacement – partly because of attrition (especially at an 8% infant mortality rate), but also because breeding-age women are a subset of all women (specifically, each year’s FAF cohort is the set of women aged 15-50).

    Point is: SSA’s aggregate fertility rate could halve in a decade – easily. That happened in a bunch of places in the West and Asia in the 1960s/70s.

    SSA still has a reasonably high rate of child mortality (~76 per 1000 live births – i.e., round it up to ‘about 8%‘ with some countries more like ‘about 10%‘), although that has halved since 1990. As that declines, the attrition rate from live births will fall, but it will not fall fast enough to offset the falls in ‘output’ per fertile woman.

    .
    So my thesis is that Africa’s ‘curve’ will not look like the Western ‘curve’, in part because things are happening in a slightly different order – but also because they have the example of the West (and Asia) to work with.

    .

    Also… when clutching their pearls about Africans (by which most folks mean SSAns) people need to think a bit harder about how our view of different folks changes over time.

    We used to think that Chinks were dumb as bags of hammers (albeit inscrutable: you couldn’t tell if they were awake half the time, let alone what they were plotting, the fiends); we used to think the same of Indians (curry-Indians/dot-heads), the Oirish, the Dutch.

    Then they got their infrastructure sorted out, and Lawks a Lawdie, nex’ thang they jes’ as smart as us white folks. Turned out that the environmental component did some pretty positive things over a couple of generations. (inb4 “black Americans”… they haven’t had 2 full generations yet, and they were strongly selected for physicality back in the day – which is only 2 decent human lifespans ago)

    Note: the numbers for fertility rates are taken from World Bank data.

  195. @Kratoklastes

    Point is: SSA’s aggregate fertility rate could halve in a decade – easily. That happened in a bunch of places in the West and Asia in the 1960s/70s.

    It just hasn’t gone through the formality of taking place yet.

  196. @Kratoklastes

    Not this BS again!

    If you look at detailed data, you will see that nearly all SSA countries allready have high *real* youth unemployment. Even the succesful ones.

    The economic-growth is not high enough. Population-growth momentum is still too high, despite recent drops in TFR.

    Vietnam @ 2000 @ TFR 2,1 @ 700USD per capita per year

    Ghana: @ 2017 @ TFR 4,0 @ 1600USD per capita per year

    Morocco: @ 2017 @ TFR 2,5 @ 3100USD per capita per year

    Vietnam: @ 1997 -> 1,3 million babies vs 2017 -> 950k babies

    Egypt: @ 1997 -> 2,1 million babies vs 2017 -> 2,3million babies

    Vietnam @ 2017: youth unemployment -> 7%

    Egypt @ 2017: youth unemployment -> 25% (young college-graduates: 32%)

    Which country has got a problem with extremism, group-rapes and had to run to the IMF for a bailout?

    Family-planning is not even up for discussion. It’s a must-have. It’s the killer-app for the system, like Super Mario for the Nintendo.

    Egypt is still by far more competent lead than the SSA countries. Think of Nigeria, Congo and Conrad’s Heart of Darkness is already a reality.

  197. @Kratoklastes

    Yes, just sprinkle some infrastructure about, old chap. What, what hey, hey.

    I actually look forward to the Chinese breaking up the Commonwealth. They’ll be a lot more realistic about things than the limeys.

  198. jim jones says:
    @El Dato

    Photo from Zerohedge:

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  199. notanon says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Not just this man. Tens of millions of people in America.

    those tens of millions only believe cos a few tens of thousands of people like him in the media LIE to them about the actual consequences of mass immigration.

    none of this would be happening if we didn’t have a poisonous media

  200. notanon says:
    @Kratoklastes

    It’s monumentally unlikely that there will ever be 3 billion Africans in toto, let alone 3 billion more than there is now.

    you’re correct – before that point is reached 100s of millions will move out of Africa, destroy Europe and then both they and the ones left in Africa will starve.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  201. notanon says:
    @Kratoklastes

    We used to think that Chinks were dumb as bags of hammers

    no we didn’t – chinese exclusion was based on them being smart and working too hard

    Point is: SSA’s aggregate fertility rate could halve in a decade – easily. That happened in a bunch of places in the West and Asia in the 1960s/70s.

    r/K

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  202. Anonymous[742] • Disclaimer says:
    @Another German Reader

    Italy – effectively run by the complete dickheads and f*ckwits of the EU managed to combine massive, massive youth unemployment with the resultum of decades of the lowest fertility rates ever recorded in human history.

    Quite an achievement.

    To add insult to injury, the EU has forced the mammoth immigration of worthless, useless fraudulent moochers upon the Italians.

    • Agree: BB753
  203. Anonymous[742] • Disclaimer says:
    @Another German Reader

    … And if those bastards at The Economist have their way, (they always do), that Conradian reality will be Europe’s future too.

  204. blackbrit says:
    @Truth

    truth, the white european’s know full well they have a tiny white baby birth rate in and across all of their countries already, with white european female miscegenation growing bigger by the day already without millions of big black african meat spears also to deal with in the years to come, if you walked around london for a day and saw the number of white females with non-white babies and kids, you would know full well why the white man gets worried ! lol !.

    • Replies: @Truth
  205. Anonymous[298] • Disclaimer says:
    @jim jones

    First tentative entry for the new iSteve Caption Competition:

    ‘The new Melilla branch of KFC has announced a special half price ‘Party Bucket’ opening special offer’. Extraordinary measures were needed to keep back influx of customers’.

  206. Anonymous[298] • Disclaimer says:
    @notanon

    But not the Chinese, apparently, who by that point, assuredly, will be ‘masters of creation’.

    • Replies: @notanon
  207. lavoisier says: • Website
    @DevOps Dad

    How will Washington Post and New York Times editors reconcile near future double-blind genetics studies that can predict with 99+% confidence adults who do not know Arithmetic or Algebra?

    How they reconcile anything and everything: Blame Whitey.

  208. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Iberiano

    Blacks, on average, are superior athletes to whites.

    Look at the 100 meter dash. Total dominance.

    Cornerbacks in the NFL: Total dominance.

    Boxing: Tyson was the best and in his prime would have beaten anyone.

    MMA: Lots of great black fighters. JJ dominant now.

    If you want to brag about white achievement, stick to the intellectual realm.

    In the world of athletics blacks they are the best.

  209. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Alfa158

    Simple solution is to deport anyone who illegally enters the European Union.

    And deport any white liberal to Africa if they agitate to keep the Africans in Europe. Start by deporting Bono, the Pope, and Bill and Melinda Gates to Africa.

    Let them live and work there to improve the lives of the African people .

    Africa for the Africans, Europe for the Europeans.

    Treat Africans like human beings. Stop taking responsibility for their foolishness.

  210. Truth says:
    @blackbrit

    Yes, and that does not mean this deception is good for us either, it is not. Constant propaganda that you are a better man (or woman) with someone who shares none of your DNA is not a good thing.

    It happens, and it is fine. but being with someone who is from another tribe does not make you superior.

    • Replies: @blackbrit
  211. @Sam Malone

    This guy’s no Tiny. He’s on our side, laying out a considered line of thought we don’t want to hear but which is largely correct and certainly important.

    No, he’s a demoralization agent posing as a friend, and judging by your similarly throwing around terms like “high testosterone” and “sexually vigorous,” so are you.

  212. @Kratoklastes

    Thank you for the explanation. And I am sorry for having been nasty.

  213. @Another German Reader

    Population is a supertanker, not a speedboat: changes in TFR do not manifest in total population numbers instantaneously.

    All the countries you mention (Viet Nam, Ghana, Morocco, and Egypt) have rates of natural increase (births minus deaths) that aren’t high by historical standards for developing countries (where kids still have investment-goods characteristics, particularly in rural areas).

    More importantly, those rates are falling – everywhere.

    Ghana is obviously your poster child for Chocolate Dystopia: Ghana’s TFR – which is still high at 4-ish kids/FAF – used to be 7ish kids/FAF (it was 6.6 when they gained independence, and has fallen consistently since then).

    In that time its GNI per capita has increased five-fold to US$4490.

    Also… my data has Vietnamese GNI per capita in 2000 at US$2160, not $700; at the time Ghana’s GNI per capita was US$1740. (All these figures are using World Bank PPP measures).

    Bear in mind when discussing Viet Nam: in 1970 its TFR was 7.4 kids/FAF.

    .

    You also ignore that Egypt’s economy was run as a kleptocracy for 3 decades (the years of Hosni-Hotep) and prior to that was pretty much a military dictatorship.

    Military dictatorships are pretty well renowned for being shit at furnishing rising living standards: they are the second dumbest thing. The first-dumbest is central planning – which Egypt also had in spades (as did Viet Nam, of course – but they got that Ole Time Entrepreneurial Spirit about the time that Deng Xiaoping instituted reforms in China, and it’s been ‘centrally planned’ in name only ever since).

    As a result, economic growth in Egypt has been stymied by the reluctance of capital to locate itself in strife-torn bits of the planet (and to this can be added the diversion of domestic capital to the private accounts of members of the political class).

    Throw some Western hostility into the mix (because Egypt initially didn’t play nice with the West’s transplanted Eurotrash who invaded Palestine), and what you get is an economy that has, as they say, ‘headwinds’.

    And what happened after Hosni-khamun was chucked out?

    The typical shit that happens in a third world power vacuum – multiple sets of corrupt fuckbags trying to get their hands on the buckets of money, with Western economic vampires trying to influence the outcome (influencing political outcomes makes you Hitler, right? Isn’t that what they say when CNN pretends Russia dun it?).

    Seriously – youth unemployment is not caused by fertility: it’s caused by systemic economic problems.

    As for the idea that Egypt sought an IMF bailout: that’s just the new political class getting their palms greased in exchange for keeping the gate to Gaza firmly shut.

    IMF bailouts to developing countries are the funding mechanism by which third world despots acquire high-end real estate in London and Paris, and the primary route (along with the World Bank, and the ADB in Asia) for “aid recycling” – the mechanism by which ownership is acquired over assets in the recipient country.

    Also, Egypts IMF loan ($12b) was chump-change compared to the amount that they, the World Bank, and the tax base spunked away to ensure that Goldman alumni didn’t have to slow their rate of acquisition of Hamptons real estate.

    .

    What of Greece? Y U NO mention the Bubbles? (‘Bubble & Squeak‘ – Greek).

    Egypt IMF bailout: $12b. Population: 100m. Youth unemployment rate: 31%.
    Greece IMF bailout: $130b. Population: 11m. Youth unemployment rate: 39%.

    So the white Grecians did a more worser job than the dusky Gyppos.

    For those playing at home:
    • the Greek bailout runs to $11K per capita (~30% of GNI per capita);
    • the Egyptian bailout runs to $120 per capita (~1% of GNI per capita).

    I know, right? Fucking lazy brown Gyppo cunts – how dare they.

    And Y U NO mention Italy (pop: 61m)?

    The Ities were after $600b in 2011 – they didn’t get the money, mainly because admitting that the ‘third pillar’ of Europe was broke would have made a bunch of Schengen countries think harder about the exits… so everything got finagled.

  214. @Rosie

    Why are we focusing only on women? It seems that men are more indifferent to procreation than women.

    I don’t think it’s hugely controversial to say that women bear most of the (direct) burden of reproduction: quite apart from the cumulative damage to their bodies (and, in poorer societies, the risk of death in childbirth), women do most of the ‘maintenance’ bits (feeding, changing, and washing the kid).

    The survey you linked to also shows the weakness of surveys: journalists and their ilk sticky-tape a rationale onto the numbers without thinking it through.

    Why would childless women think a lot harder about whether or not they’re comfortable never having kids? Because past a certain age, they can’t change their minds (at least, about having a proper kid with their own DNA in it).

    On the flip side, men can say “Oh yah, I srsly DGAF bout kids“, and change their minds when they’re 70. For men, “never have kids” actually means “not have kids until I change my mind” (assuming access to sufficient pharmaceuticals to enable erectile function – eeeew old men are gross).

    It should also come as no surprise that the average age at which men father their first (acknowledged) kid rises with education level. Everything about education tilts things that way.

    Part of the ‘action’ is because boys who go on to tertiary study have much lower procreation rates in their teens and 20s (if you father a kid at 15, it’s less likely you go to college; if you father a kid while in college, it’s hard to keep going).

    But also, of course there’s our old friend the income/fertility nexus: university graduates have more options open to them, and they do things that they think are a better use of their time than reproduction. As time passes some of them change their minds (or run out of interesting things to do).

    But at the end of the day, the 70-year-old no-kidz-er who changed his mind is going to have to scrape the bottom of the genetic barrel to find someone to host his buggered old genetic flotsam… coz all the smart women would rather go skiing.

  215. notanon says:
    @Anonymous

    yes – until the banking mafia betray them

  216. notanon says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Egypt IMF bailout: $12b. Population: 100m. Youth unemployment rate: 31%.
    Greece IMF bailout: $130b. Population: 11m. Youth unemployment rate: 39%.

    So the white Grecians did a more worser job than the dusky Gyppos.

    the banking mafia bribe corrupt politicians to get nations into crippling debt so they can loot them when the debt becomes unpayable.

    by getting Greece into the Euro (by fiddling the books) the banking mafia created a situation where Greece could borrow vastly more than Egypt (cos implied German backstop) hence Greece being loan sharked far worse than Egypt.

    (with the full collusion of the filthy EU)

    (nb Greece wasn’t bailed out – all that taxpayer money went to the banks Greece owed money to)

  217. blackbrit says:
    @Truth

    truth, well a bigger and bigger number and percentage of white females in britain are sharing their dna with members of other tribes, and it’s not going to get any less common in the years to come, the propaganda in britain is nearly totally aimed at white females in britain to miscegenate and produce non-white babies with non-white men, given the growing number of non-white young men in britain both british and foreign born, black, asian, african, arab, muslim etc. and so on i think you should just let the white man worry about his disappearing white babies and come to terms with nature taking its course in britain and europe.

  218. Bubba says:
    @Jefferson

    The welfare state should be abolished.

    You got that right.

  219. Bubba says:
    @Anon

    Good post, that was excellent to read. You are right about the “ethnostate” & welfare – thanks for pointing that out.

    Welfare definitely does not work in the U.S., but it works very well in certain mono-ethnic countries (none in Africa though).

  220. @dfordoom

    It’s people who have already embraced (and indeed welcomed) suicide for their own culture who want to persuade other people to commit demographic suicide.

    They are a short-term problem. In the long run they will die off, and those of us who have embraced reproduction (including the needlessly high costs thereof) will see their offspring inherit the earth.

  221. @Kratoklastes

    Am I talking to an autist?

    Take a good look at Vietnam or Thailand v African countries at the same level of GDP per capita!

    Ghana is TFR-wise where Vietnam was when it was it started its’ reforms – in the mid 1980s.

    The Tiger economies all needed 25 years to bring TFR down to replacement-levels. Population-growth was under control. School-Class-size was shrinking & while higher tax-renevues means that material improvements in education/teacher-salaries started to kick in. Colleges started to look like colleges.

    Let’s not even speak of education. The Vietnamese fought an intensive civil-war/proxy war and still managed to bring up their literacy-rates to a level, which Ghana/Egypt just reached a few years ago.

    Vietnam’s education-quality is now closing in on industrial-countries’ level. Check PISA/TIMMS/WEF!

    Economic-growth is now undeniable visible in Vietnam’s provincial towns/villages, while even the remote regions have started to move away from subsistence-agriculture.

    This is what keeps the young folks calm and occupied/hopeful. There are still illegal migrants from Vietnam, but it’s a trickle.

    I don’t like GNI/PPP or not – because that express-way/gas-turbine/semi-trailer/Su-30 will cost the same everywhere.

    I am not a pessimist, but it’s clear that Arabian/Central-American/SSA half-ass growth won’t bring even the majority into the Consumerist fold. There will be instability for decades/illegal migrants to come. The lower third of Vietnam’s population still does not get to enjoy the fruit of their hard work.

    Do you think the average young men in Africa is going to wait for another 30/40/50 years until growth reaches their village?

    No, that’s why we already have a migration-crisis.

    —–

    Let’s talk about abortion-numbers in China/Skorea/Taiwan/SE-Asia!

    Because it’s the reason, why the Western liberals don’t talk about family-planning anymore. Vietnam alone has nearly 30 million over the last 40 years. Hell, even the Catholic Phillipines are aborting 500k pregnancies every year.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  222. @notanon

    We used to think that Chinks were dumb as bags of hammers

    no we didn’t – chinese exclusion was based on them being smart and working too hard

    Depends on when you’re talking about, and you need to disentangle work ethic from intelligence: “being smart” and “working too hard” are not the same thing.

    The Chinee were certainly disliked for their (positive) work ethic, but they were absolutely declared – time and time and time and time again – to be an inferior, degenerate race.

    It stands to reason that the people making claims of Chinese ‘inferiority’ or ‘degeneracy’ could not be casting aspersions about the Chinese folks’ physical characteristics – because it was being said in a context in which the Chinese voluntarily outworked people who were twice their size (i.e., black slaves) … even when the blacks faced whipping if they underperformed.

    One of Crooked Abe Lincoln’s correspondents (Horace Greeley) wrote that -

    The Chinese are uncivilized, unclean, and filthy beyond all conception, without any of the higher domestic or social relations; lustful and sensual in their dispositions; every female is a prostitute of the basest order

    At about the same time, in his inaugural address (1862) Governor Leland Stanford stated:

    There can be no doubt that the presence of numbers among us of a degraded and distinct people must exercise a deleterious influence upon the superior race, and, to a certain extent, repel desirable immigration. It will afford me great pleasure to concur with the Legislature in any constitutional action, having for its object the repression of the immigration of the Asiatic races.

    Quite a bit later, in Gong Lum v Rice, 275 US 85 (1899), Chief Justice William Taft put these thoughts down (in upholding the Constitutionality of a Mississippi law declaring Chinese kiddies to be “coloured”) –

    Most of the cases cited arose, it is true, over the establishment of separate schools as between white pupils and black pupils, but we cannot think that the question is any different or that any different result can be reached, assuming the cases above cited to be rightly decided, where the issue is as between white pupils and the pupils of the yellow races.

    Chinese were variously described as “inferior and unassimilable” and “deemed both unworthy and incapable of assimilation” (emphases mine). See Hendrick, I.G., (1977), “The Education of Non-Whites in California, 1849-1970” pp29-35.

    Again… given that the context here is education, what possible non-intelligence-related interpretation can be put on the words “inferior” and “unworthy“?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  223. Anonymous[552] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Not true.

    If you care to read serious 19th century anthropological texts, rather than quote from tub-thumping political speeches, you will find that those who studied the matter rationally held China and Chinese civilisation in esteem.

  224. Edward says:

    European elites seem to be facing a Catch-22 situation here, if my reading of the literature is correct.

    On the one hand, aid to sub-Saharan Africa may promote development and help to reduce fertility rates.

    On the other hand, many experts now seem to believe that economic development in sub-Saharan Africa (certainly from its current levels) will actually increase the likelihood that Africans migrate to Europe.

    This is perhaps a reason for pessimism. Unless populations can be stabilised or reduced independent of economic development (perhaps China will be of assistance here, given their leverage in sub-Saharan Africa?), then Europe is in trouble.

    • Replies: @blackbrit
  225. bomag says:
    @Anon

    You can spin a hagiography for anybody. We’re surrounded by stories extolling the virtues of :

    ) south of the border lettuce pickers

    ) sub-continental coders

    ) oriental work-a-holics

    ) south Pacific linemen

    etc.

    But they all have plenty of dysfunction on display.

    As far as Blacks are concerned, for the most part, no one wants them around; no one misses them when they are gone. The marginal Black/Other coupling goes nowhere.

  226. anonymous[405] • Disclaimer says:

    For those who like the Serengeti and other nice ecosystems in Africa, first should work on fighting other white people who are harming it.

  227. blackbrit says:
    @Edward

    edward, yes europe or at least white europe is in trouble, you have in one place a tiny white european female birth rate and in another place a massive black african male fertility rate, only a complete idiot believes that year after year million upon million of young black african males are going to enter european countries in order to do crossword puzzles or knitting, of course what will happen is increasing black births and increasing brown mixed race births in european countries, the brown mixed race births further lowering the white european female white baby birth rate through increasing white european female miscegenation.

  228. @Another German Reader

    Am I talking to an autist?

    Probably not, since autism is almost certainly bullshit, like almost everything that derives from the charlatans in the psych[] disciplines.

    Moving on…

    You make some interesting actual points – to the extent that I seriously think we are on the same page, although I have a more optimistic view of the situation because I [think I] understand the primacy of technological change as driver of ‘directed’ social evolution.

    I am with you on PISA: in fact, I would say that when it comes to cognition I am more dystopian than you are. For almost three decades I have been blathering on about the OECD’s PIAAC studies (and precursors) as evidence for how little can be expected from the sub-127(ish) IQ segment of any human population. (PIAAC was previously ALSS, and before that, I think the acronym was LISS).

    In spite of that, I am also firmly persuaded that the heavy lifting performed by humanity’s cognitive élite – by which I mean the private-sector brainboxes who invent stuff – is more than enough to overcome the cognitive shortcomings of the vast seething sea of fucktards that get in my road all the time.

    To give some indication of where I set the (subjective) bar: Elon Musk gets into the ‘brainbox’ category, despite most of what he’s doing being pretty stupid; conversely, nobody within M200 range of the operational political class gets into the ‘brainbox’. That would mean politicians, judiciary, military, bureaucracy, bankers, Death Merchants and so forth.

    ***

    Now let’s go back to comparing Viet Nam with Ghana.

    As I pointed out, in 1970 Viet Nam’s TFR was 7-ish kids per fertile female (k/F, hereafter); about the same as Ghana.

    Your observation of the shortcomings of GNI at PPP are noted; my response is that the examples you give are of little or no consequence to the utility of the (largely-peasant) rural populations of 1970s Viet Nam or Ghana.

    Rural peasants seldom buy (or benefit significantly from) expressways or Flankers; those are part of the parasite classes’ expenditures. If you had included water treatment or sewerage plants, I have an answer for those, too (the whole ‘aid recycling’ problem for projects of that nature, where the vast bulk of project expenditure goes straight back to US firms: aid is simply an indirect subsidy to major-project firms).

    So ideally, we want a measure that ignores government expenditure on vanity projects: PPP-measured per capita consumption of the bottom quintile would be really ideal, but there’s just no data for it.

    So to have ‘apples to apples’ for 1970 onwards we’re doomed to GDP per capita at 2005 PPP, which sucks.

    Those following along need to understand that for the first half of the 1970s, Viet Nam and its neighbours were being bombed and defoliated to oblivion by the US Death Machine. The US Death Machine had decided that the Gooks weren’t allowed to experiment with the ownership structure of the means of production, or the mechanism by which political parasites gained control over the levers of power.

    (Why that gets to be the US’s call is a matter best left for war crimes tribunals).

    Let’s just stipulate that whatever metric is used for the relative prosperity of the peasants of Viet Nam, it was very low in 1970. And death from the sky plus free fire zones… tends to reeduce the number of ‘capita’ in the count, too (that was Stalin’s way of increasing per-capita GDP growth: reduce the number of capita substantially).

    Viet Nam’s 1970 GDP per capita – at 2005 PPP – was USD$528.

    Ghana’s measure on the same basis at the same point in time (when its TFR was 6.8 k/F) … US$1525.

    Now, consider the trajectories of GDP per capita over the next 20 years (1970-1990):
    • Viet Nam rose to ~US$900 (an increase of 70%);
    • Ghana fell to US$1273 (a fall of 17%). By the year 2000, real GDP per capita was still lower than it was in 1970 (it exceeded its 1970 level in 2003).

    (Ghana got that whole “Don’t be a military dictatorship” thing wrong: with a single 2-year exception in 1979-81, Ghana was ruled by a military junta from 1972-1993).

    And despite falling GDP per capita (1970-1990), the TFR for Ghana also fell (only by about 1k/F).

    Ghana has had reasonable political stability since then (although let’s be frank: the ‘democracy’ in Ghana post-1993 was a sham; the first electoral change of government happened in 2001).

    Ghana has not even had one generation of economic liberalism; Viet Nam has had just under 2. The Ghanaian women who reached sexual maturity prior to 2000 would have made their reproductive decisions based on the political landscape that they observed – one of instability, uncertainty, and living standards that were not higher than their parents’.

    Women who reach sexual maturity today see living standards that are objectively rising (GNI per capita has tripled since 2003); they see (some) political stability; the rural ones see technology that makes the world seem smaller and gives them access to first-world levels of information – levels that Western women in the 1990s did not have.

    Keep an eye on Africa: when I am proven right (in 10-25 years), cast your mind back to this post.

    *********************

    The lower third of Vietnam’s population still does not get to enjoy the fruit of their hard work.

    That’s kinda true – and yet the Vietnamese underclasses still plug away: a very large proportion of them plug away in subsistence agriculture, which is not adequately reflected in GDP or GNI per capita measures.

    It’s also a bit of a misnomer, since ‘subsistence’ agriculture implies that people are near starvation, whereas in reality most rural agriculture produces sufficient surplus to enable localised ‘informal’ trade. including barter.

    That said, there’s something to be gained from considering the mindset of Vietnamese rural folk – the local folk religions make stoic (not Stoic) acceptance of life’s travails, more likely than you would expect to observe in people who adhere to Africanised charismatic Christianity (like Ghanaians).

    Africanised Christianity is like Africanised bees: you don’t want that shit anywhere near your house.

  229. @Kratoklastes

    the rural ones see technology that makes the world seem smaller and gives them access to first-world levels of information – levels that Western women in the 1990s did not have.

    D’oh… should read as folllows

    the urban ones see technology that makes the world seem smaller and gives them access to first-world levels of information – levels that Western women in the 1990s did not have.

    My proofreading gets ever more worser when I drink (it’s only 2:17pm and I’m on my third glass of red).

  230. athEIst says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Africa ‘leap-frogged’ costly copper fixed-line networks and went ‘straight to mobile’.

    It was impossible to use COSTLY copper wire where it could not be protected.

  231. @Kratoklastes

    You still don’t get it, do you? You might not be an autist, but still you are riding complex numbers and theories, but it’s quite simple.

    #1: The East-/South-East-Asian countries all used family-planning programs (of different urgencies/governmental pressure) AND abortion.

    Vietnam TFR/1997: 2,3 @ 1,35 million babies + 900k abortion.

    #2: Vietnam committed deep reforms, which leads to a much more dynamic economy.

    Labor-market: 2017 -> 1,2 million jobs (See TFR in 1997 above!)

    –> In Tiger economies most youth will find a job. Even if it means 10h/6 days for 250USD/month in a textile-mill or on a shrimp-farm. A job is a job.

    #3: Arab/Latinos as of 2018 cannot even beat basic educational-numbers of the E-/SE-Asia in the 1990s. Let’s not speak of the SSA.

    How is Africa going to convince investors in the upcoming world of even more automated manufacturing? In fact African countries are actually de-industrialising, before getting rich.

    –> You don’t seem to get the urgencies of a massive break of African TFR, because at the current state of affairs we already will have ten millions of Young Angry Men – SSA Edition, who will likely destroy everything or try to migrate.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  232. @Jefferson

    ‘…The sky is the limit for Nigeria’s massive population growth…’

    No, the food supply is the limit. It won’t be pleasant to watch that play out.

  233. @Another German Reader

    You’re labouring under a significant misapprehension – namely, you seem to have inferred somehow that I don’t think abortion plays a significant part in reducing TFR.

    Not only am I pro-abortion – one of the few instances in which I would almost abandon my voluntaryist principles and support political interferfence in people’s lives, would be if anybody advocated licensing requirements for reproduction.

    I say ‘almost’ because I’m a consequentialist, and the consequence of all political action is the capture of institutions by sets of rent-seeking parasitic assholes… so, y’know, a sensible proposal (“breeding negative traits out of humanity might be a good idea“) gets captured by fucknozzles who think the logical extension of that is “forcibly sterilise people from groups we don’t like“.

    Women from pretty much all societies have practiced selective abortion since forever (with or without the consent or knowledge of their mates). Virtually every pre-industrial society has a known set of natural abortifacients; (sylphium in Greek and Rome; juniper in modern Europe; cottonroot bark in antebellum US; multiple native plants for Australian aboriginals – a hot bath, gin and a coca-cola douche” was a favoured approach for Australian women who had dalliances with GIs during WWII, apparently.

    So abortion absolutely has a place in the selection universe for African women; as prosperity increases and children lose investment value, and as abortion moves from the back-alley to much-safer clinic (and/or “Plan B”) women in Africa will abort more and more frequently.

    Transplanted Western religion gets in the way of this, and how.

    That was partly my point with regards to Africanised charismatic Christianity: like pre-Vatican-II Catholicism, it is immensely hostile to reproductive control (both contraceptive and abortive).

    The point is, African women will control their own reproduction, and will do it voluntarily based on their perception of the risk-reward structure of doing so; there is no need for yet another “We Know Better”, “Noble Lie” White Man’s Burden to do things like:
    ① sterilising women without consent during unrelated abdominal surgery;
    ② giving women contraceptives claiming that it’s some other intervention; or
    ③ trying to ‘fool’ them into making expectational errors.

    This is especially bad policy because in general the women who present themselves at NGO-run clinics are already less hostage to primitivism and tribality: they’re actually a good starting point for information campaigns, not subterfuge that, when uncovered, undermines everything that could otherwise be achieved honestly.

    Africa is not currently a desirable destination for capital, because pretty much the entire place is still riven by the sort of instability that happens in the first cuple of generations after declonolisation (Pakistan and India took slightly less than 2 generations to get their shit all in one sock, but they’re doing far better than forecast at the time).

    Speaking of excessive risk premia for African FDI: the Chinese are being far more forward-looking than the West in this regard. They are approaching their investment there like venture capitalists, not like standard actuarially-based industrial capitalists (i.e., their evaluation of investment success will be portfolio-wide, not project-by-project).

    They will eat our lunch while we sit wringing our hands thinking that improved conditions in Africa will lead to the exact opposite of every other society – namely, increased TFR and increased out-migraiton.

    (FWIW: I have always been an investment contrarian – back in 2000/01 I was pounding the table on India and China being a better investment destination than the West; by 2006/07 I was starting to think hard about what it would mean once Africa started to get its shit together. The “Ship of Fools” is a very good metaphor for the global investment community: if they’re all on one side of the boat, then the right place to be is on the other side)

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