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From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight:

Murder Rates Don’t Tell Us Everything About Gun Violence

By JEFF ASHER

… Around 34 percent of nearly 3,000 shooting incidents in Baltimore since 2010 have ended in a fatality. Baltimore is on pace for a large jump in the number of murders this year, however, because the city is seeing 60 percent more shootings in 2015 than in 2014. While New Orleans appears to be experiencing a change in luck, Baltimore is experiencing a dramatic jump in gun violence.

Looking more closely at 2015 highlights the spike in gun violence in Baltimore that began in late April and its gradual slowing since the end of July. Despite this slowing, there were still more shooting incidents in September than there were in any month from 2010 to 2014.

 
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
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  1. Bugg says:

    NYPD has for some time employed a policy that reports of gunshots fired without any injury or witnesses were not counted as shootings. Rather explained away; if a window happened to be broken,attribute it to a BB gun. Or almost anything else to avoid having to report a crime.

    Further the US has been at war almost continuously since Bush Sr. took office. Upshot of that is medical technology has moved forward and doctors performing and improving their techniques for treating gunshot wounds. More doctors are either in MASH surgical units or learning from techniques and technology employed in theater. There is a significant chance that wounds sustained in say 1988 that would have been fatal are today much less likely to result in death if the victim gets to an ER. Now that was all in the teeth of the crack cocaine epidemic,a time of significant craziness.People today addicted to opiates are less likely to act nearly s violently. In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range. Shootings are almost certain down numerically . But homicides are also down as much because of those medical improvements.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range.

    The number of murders per year in NYC fell from 2,262 in 1990 to 333 in 2014.

    http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

    And this was while the city's population rose from 7.3 to 8.5 million.

    Besides the things you mentioned there was serious demographic change. The share of births to black mothers in NYC fell from 32% in 1986 to 20% in 2013. The number of births to Puerto Rican mothers fell by more than half. The NAM population fell AND changed character - US Blacks were partly replaced by Caribbean and African Blacks, PRs were mostly replaced by Dominicans and Mexicans. Middle class whites were partly replaced with SWPLs, which affected the crime rate indirectly, by raising real estate prices.

    A positive feedback loop was created - the fall in crime attracted more upscale people, which raised real estate prices, which drove more downscale people out of the city, which lowered crime even further.

    As the above link shows, so far in 2015 the murder rate is up by 5.9% compared to last year.

    , @Clifford Brown
    The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice. The drug really exploded, especially among the homeless population. I experienced the zombie crowd this Summer around the 125th and Lexington Subway stop. Deeply disturbing. Straight out of The Walking Dead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfNFnMAlXqA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnqjQkees9Q

    I haven't seen any naked dudes on the streets, but I have seen people in this state.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCOv50pr63A

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPmSeMhibUc

    K2 is usually sold legally though bodegas by Yemeni immigrants. The packs sell for a dollar or two a pop which is the ideal price point for destitute. The active cannabinoid agents are often manufactured in China and then combined with spices in the US and sold as an "incense" type product. It's an especially dirty drug and the long term implications of its toxicity on users is unknown.

    It is often used as a pot substitute by people on parole or who are subject to a drug test. Because it is so cheap, it has really hit the homeless in New York City. Some users become addicted and repeated use can lead to PCP like episodes. I have seen a few of these people on the street and it isn't pretty. I assumed it was PCP (not that I have ever seen anyone on PCP), but the insane, manic, sweaty delusional nature of users is straight out of an after school special.

    It is an interesting experiment for the drug legalization debate. K2 appears to be terrible for the long term physical and mental health of the users, but because of its low price point and that fact that it is legally sold out of bodegas meant that so far at least, there is little gang crime associated with the drug. There is no money to be made on the street level, although I am sure that Triad organized crime or some other organized crime is involved in some way on the bulk level. A few weeks ago, the New York City Council banned the drug, but enforcement is difficult because the "chefs" continually rework the formula.

    While there has been an astronomical explosion in hospital emergency room visits, overall it has not had a material impact on the crime rate for now.
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  2. OT, except maybe the low-IQ-can-be-fatal part:

    McNamara’s Folly: The Use of Low-IQ Troops in the Vietnam War

    This gets two reviews in Vietnam Veterans Against War’s fall newsletter.

    Read More
  3. Dave Pinsen says: • Website

    Related to this, and your previous post about George Soros, what are we to make of Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    I don't think BLM is controlled by Soros in that way. The people who matter are crazy enough to lash out randomly in just the right way.

    Alternatively, (if you are into conspiracies), you could see Trump+Bill and SorosBLM attacking Hill in a pincer. Some internal strife on the left?
    , @27 year old
    Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    I think the theory still holds. Soros set them on Sanders, but didn't explicity say not to attack Hillary. Once something like that gets going, you can't can't put the pin back in. Unless Soros is willing to pull funding and (((shut it down))). But somehow I doubt he wants to do that. So the Occam's razor explanation is that BLM-ers saw what a great success they had against Sanders and wanted to do more. Remember, this is also great fun for them. They get to be angry and assertive and annoy white people and be on TV.

    OR Occam's tinfoil says that Soros told them to go attack Hillary too to cover his tracks, and let Hillary in on it, so it won't be that damaging to her.
    , @countenance
    "What are we to make of BLM heckling Hillary?"

    Easy. Attention hounds using an easy mark to draw attention to themselves. Looksatme.
    , @Bill
    You don't control a human asset the way you control a car or a program. The difficulty of getting another human to do "what I would have done" in a particular situation is why there is this thing, this field of study, this urgent need of organizations everywhere called management. It's especially bad when the asset's interests, preferences, and culture are dramatically different from your own.
  4. Wilkey says:

    Nice headline, but it looks like you misspelled “Barack Obama.”

    I kid, I kid. Black Lives Matter actually is the bigger story than Obama, because they and most of the politicians who embrace them will still be around in 15 months, but Obama won’t. And they are the very embodiment of the insanity of today’s Democratic Party – the very voters Democratic politicians have to kowtow to in order to win elections.

    The nation may just be beginning to understand what the South has understood for quite a while: rising “diversity” will cause more and more whites to identify politically based on their race.

    Read More
  5. Glossy says: • Website
    @Bugg
    NYPD has for some time employed a policy that reports of gunshots fired without any injury or witnesses were not counted as shootings. Rather explained away; if a window happened to be broken,attribute it to a BB gun. Or almost anything else to avoid having to report a crime.

    Further the US has been at war almost continuously since Bush Sr. took office. Upshot of that is medical technology has moved forward and doctors performing and improving their techniques for treating gunshot wounds. More doctors are either in MASH surgical units or learning from techniques and technology employed in theater. There is a significant chance that wounds sustained in say 1988 that would have been fatal are today much less likely to result in death if the victim gets to an ER. Now that was all in the teeth of the crack cocaine epidemic,a time of significant craziness.People today addicted to opiates are less likely to act nearly s violently. In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range. Shootings are almost certain down numerically . But homicides are also down as much because of those medical improvements.

    In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range.

    The number of murders per year in NYC fell from 2,262 in 1990 to 333 in 2014.

    http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

    And this was while the city’s population rose from 7.3 to 8.5 million.

    Besides the things you mentioned there was serious demographic change. The share of births to black mothers in NYC fell from 32% in 1986 to 20% in 2013. The number of births to Puerto Rican mothers fell by more than half. The NAM population fell AND changed character – US Blacks were partly replaced by Caribbean and African Blacks, PRs were mostly replaced by Dominicans and Mexicans. Middle class whites were partly replaced with SWPLs, which affected the crime rate indirectly, by raising real estate prices.

    A positive feedback loop was created – the fall in crime attracted more upscale people, which raised real estate prices, which drove more downscale people out of the city, which lowered crime even further.

    As the above link shows, so far in 2015 the murder rate is up by 5.9% compared to last year.

    Read More
  6. The city has taken a major hit in terms of tourism since the riots. I wish we could insert links into comments, because the occasional story is being written about this. One is titled “Hotel bookings down since April unrest.” Another one that buries the issue is headlined “Why the Camden Pub owner is selling: ‘I don’t want this for my kids.”

    A few decades ago, my family moved to a Maryland suburb and regularly took trips to Baltimore’s Inner Harbor and went to restaurants in Little Italy. A few weeks ago I mentioned to my dad that he could get something he needed for his house at a Home Depot in Baltimore County (not the city, but the county) and he cut me off immediately saying “Are you kidding? I’m not going into Baltimore!”

    That right there, I think, should tell you the effect all this has had.

    Read More
    • Replies: @EriK

    I wish we could insert links into comments
     
    What's this "we" stuff? Have you got a mouse in your pocket?

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-baltimore-tourism-20150819-story.html
    http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/blog/charm-city-flavor/2015/10/why-the-camden-pub-owner-is-selling-i-don-t-want.html
  7. Boomstick says:

    “Around 34 percent of nearly 3,000 shooting incidents in Baltimore since 2010 have ended in a fatality. ”

    This seems like a shockingly high rate of fatal shooting incidents. For example, Chicago’s year-to-date stats are 2558 shot, of which 378 were killed and 2180 wounded, for an overall fatality rate of around 15%. The vast majority of shooting incidents involve handguns, which are just not all that lethal. 10-15% is a typical death rate for someone shot with a handgun. Rifles increase that to maybe the 30% range, and shotguns can get to 50%, but the later two are almost never used.

    The stats don’t directly compare–a “shooting incident” may have multiple victims, presumably, and the joint fatality rate is probably somewhat higher than an individual fatality rate. But again from the Chicago stats, shootings in which more than three people are hit are pretty rare.

    I’d want to see what was going on in the underlying data. If that’s valid, I’d want to see what’s going on in the local emergency rooms. Or maybe look at why the gangstas are getting more lethal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @International Jew

    I’d want to see what was going on in the underlying data.
     
    I'm going to guess that it's driven by inconsistent reporting and inconsistent recording -- ie errors -- more than by anything else. Especially in a low-competence place like Baltimore.

    The ol' proverbial sausage factory...

    , @Zed, Lord of the Brutals
    My theory would be that lower police response resulting in higher criminal confidence leads to more 'committed' shootings. Instead of "bang bang bang---run away," it's "bang bang bang, run down the wounded and anchor shot." And similar reductions in low success drive-bys, replaced by higher success close contact shootings.
    , @Eric Rasmusen
    Murder data is quite good, because there's a body to explain. "Shooting incident" is a flexible term, and there often won't be any victims, so I'd expect the data to be bad.
  8. @Boomstick
    "Around 34 percent of nearly 3,000 shooting incidents in Baltimore since 2010 have ended in a fatality. "

    This seems like a shockingly high rate of fatal shooting incidents. For example, Chicago's year-to-date stats are 2558 shot, of which 378 were killed and 2180 wounded, for an overall fatality rate of around 15%. The vast majority of shooting incidents involve handguns, which are just not all that lethal. 10-15% is a typical death rate for someone shot with a handgun. Rifles increase that to maybe the 30% range, and shotguns can get to 50%, but the later two are almost never used.

    The stats don't directly compare--a "shooting incident" may have multiple victims, presumably, and the joint fatality rate is probably somewhat higher than an individual fatality rate. But again from the Chicago stats, shootings in which more than three people are hit are pretty rare.

    I'd want to see what was going on in the underlying data. If that's valid, I'd want to see what's going on in the local emergency rooms. Or maybe look at why the gangstas are getting more lethal.

    I’d want to see what was going on in the underlying data.

    I’m going to guess that it’s driven by inconsistent reporting and inconsistent recording — ie errors — more than by anything else. Especially in a low-competence place like Baltimore.

    The ol’ proverbial sausage factory…

    Read More
  9. @Bugg
    NYPD has for some time employed a policy that reports of gunshots fired without any injury or witnesses were not counted as shootings. Rather explained away; if a window happened to be broken,attribute it to a BB gun. Or almost anything else to avoid having to report a crime.

    Further the US has been at war almost continuously since Bush Sr. took office. Upshot of that is medical technology has moved forward and doctors performing and improving their techniques for treating gunshot wounds. More doctors are either in MASH surgical units or learning from techniques and technology employed in theater. There is a significant chance that wounds sustained in say 1988 that would have been fatal are today much less likely to result in death if the victim gets to an ER. Now that was all in the teeth of the crack cocaine epidemic,a time of significant craziness.People today addicted to opiates are less likely to act nearly s violently. In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range. Shootings are almost certain down numerically . But homicides are also down as much because of those medical improvements.

    The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice. The drug really exploded, especially among the homeless population. I experienced the zombie crowd this Summer around the 125th and Lexington Subway stop. Deeply disturbing. Straight out of The Walking Dead.

    I haven’t seen any naked dudes on the streets, but I have seen people in this state.

    K2 is usually sold legally though bodegas by Yemeni immigrants. The packs sell for a dollar or two a pop which is the ideal price point for destitute. The active cannabinoid agents are often manufactured in China and then combined with spices in the US and sold as an “incense” type product. It’s an especially dirty drug and the long term implications of its toxicity on users is unknown.

    It is often used as a pot substitute by people on parole or who are subject to a drug test. Because it is so cheap, it has really hit the homeless in New York City. Some users become addicted and repeated use can lead to PCP like episodes. I have seen a few of these people on the street and it isn’t pretty. I assumed it was PCP (not that I have ever seen anyone on PCP), but the insane, manic, sweaty delusional nature of users is straight out of an after school special.

    It is an interesting experiment for the drug legalization debate. K2 appears to be terrible for the long term physical and mental health of the users, but because of its low price point and that fact that it is legally sold out of bodegas meant that so far at least, there is little gang crime associated with the drug. There is no money to be made on the street level, although I am sure that Triad organized crime or some other organized crime is involved in some way on the bulk level. A few weeks ago, the New York City Council banned the drug, but enforcement is difficult because the “chefs” continually rework the formula.

    While there has been an astronomical explosion in hospital emergency room visits, overall it has not had a material impact on the crime rate for now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Big Bill
    Those are some frightening videos. I did not realize how bad it has gotten in NYC. Once we decriminalize marijuana and other drugs we can expect more of the same.

    The White Man will still be the Devil, as the onlookers in the videos explained. Damned if we do. Damned if we don't.
    , @NOTA
    This is approximately the one zillionth scary new drug destroying the world. Mostly these are hype, though crack did manage to fill up a lot of graveyards.
  10. eah says:

    But Obama and Holder both say any increase in violence has nothing to do with #BlackLivesMatter.

    Read More
  11. @Dave Pinsen
    Related to this, and your previous post about George Soros, what are we to make of Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    I don’t think BLM is controlled by Soros in that way. The people who matter are crazy enough to lash out randomly in just the right way.

    Alternatively, (if you are into conspiracies), you could see Trump+Bill and SorosBLM attacking Hill in a pincer. Some internal strife on the left?

    Read More
  12. @Boomstick
    "Around 34 percent of nearly 3,000 shooting incidents in Baltimore since 2010 have ended in a fatality. "

    This seems like a shockingly high rate of fatal shooting incidents. For example, Chicago's year-to-date stats are 2558 shot, of which 378 were killed and 2180 wounded, for an overall fatality rate of around 15%. The vast majority of shooting incidents involve handguns, which are just not all that lethal. 10-15% is a typical death rate for someone shot with a handgun. Rifles increase that to maybe the 30% range, and shotguns can get to 50%, but the later two are almost never used.

    The stats don't directly compare--a "shooting incident" may have multiple victims, presumably, and the joint fatality rate is probably somewhat higher than an individual fatality rate. But again from the Chicago stats, shootings in which more than three people are hit are pretty rare.

    I'd want to see what was going on in the underlying data. If that's valid, I'd want to see what's going on in the local emergency rooms. Or maybe look at why the gangstas are getting more lethal.

    My theory would be that lower police response resulting in higher criminal confidence leads to more ‘committed’ shootings. Instead of “bang bang bang—run away,” it’s “bang bang bang, run down the wounded and anchor shot.” And similar reductions in low success drive-bys, replaced by higher success close contact shootings.

    Read More
  13. EriK says:
    @Days of Broken Arrows
    The city has taken a major hit in terms of tourism since the riots. I wish we could insert links into comments, because the occasional story is being written about this. One is titled "Hotel bookings down since April unrest." Another one that buries the issue is headlined "Why the Camden Pub owner is selling: 'I don’t want this for my kids."

    A few decades ago, my family moved to a Maryland suburb and regularly took trips to Baltimore's Inner Harbor and went to restaurants in Little Italy. A few weeks ago I mentioned to my dad that he could get something he needed for his house at a Home Depot in Baltimore County (not the city, but the county) and he cut me off immediately saying "Are you kidding? I'm not going into Baltimore!"

    That right there, I think, should tell you the effect all this has had.

    Read More
  14. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    538 is my favorite progressive liberal outlet for no other reason than the great lengths they no doubt have to go to avoid thoughtcrime. They spend months on end rating the country’s best burritos or dreaming up new ways to analyze sports instead of, say, Noticing Things. The type of chart presented here is a somewhat basic analysis of the symptom. Not a meaningful dive into the actual problems, which is how you get booted from polite society.

    Read More
  15. Big Bill says:
    @Clifford Brown
    The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice. The drug really exploded, especially among the homeless population. I experienced the zombie crowd this Summer around the 125th and Lexington Subway stop. Deeply disturbing. Straight out of The Walking Dead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfNFnMAlXqA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnqjQkees9Q

    I haven't seen any naked dudes on the streets, but I have seen people in this state.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCOv50pr63A

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPmSeMhibUc

    K2 is usually sold legally though bodegas by Yemeni immigrants. The packs sell for a dollar or two a pop which is the ideal price point for destitute. The active cannabinoid agents are often manufactured in China and then combined with spices in the US and sold as an "incense" type product. It's an especially dirty drug and the long term implications of its toxicity on users is unknown.

    It is often used as a pot substitute by people on parole or who are subject to a drug test. Because it is so cheap, it has really hit the homeless in New York City. Some users become addicted and repeated use can lead to PCP like episodes. I have seen a few of these people on the street and it isn't pretty. I assumed it was PCP (not that I have ever seen anyone on PCP), but the insane, manic, sweaty delusional nature of users is straight out of an after school special.

    It is an interesting experiment for the drug legalization debate. K2 appears to be terrible for the long term physical and mental health of the users, but because of its low price point and that fact that it is legally sold out of bodegas meant that so far at least, there is little gang crime associated with the drug. There is no money to be made on the street level, although I am sure that Triad organized crime or some other organized crime is involved in some way on the bulk level. A few weeks ago, the New York City Council banned the drug, but enforcement is difficult because the "chefs" continually rework the formula.

    While there has been an astronomical explosion in hospital emergency room visits, overall it has not had a material impact on the crime rate for now.

    Those are some frightening videos. I did not realize how bad it has gotten in NYC. Once we decriminalize marijuana and other drugs we can expect more of the same.

    The White Man will still be the Devil, as the onlookers in the videos explained. Damned if we do. Damned if we don’t.

    Read More
  16. @Dave Pinsen
    Related to this, and your previous post about George Soros, what are we to make of Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    I think the theory still holds. Soros set them on Sanders, but didn’t explicity say not to attack Hillary. Once something like that gets going, you can’t can’t put the pin back in. Unless Soros is willing to pull funding and (((shut it down))). But somehow I doubt he wants to do that. So the Occam’s razor explanation is that BLM-ers saw what a great success they had against Sanders and wanted to do more. Remember, this is also great fun for them. They get to be angry and assertive and annoy white people and be on TV.

    OR Occam’s tinfoil says that Soros told them to go attack Hillary too to cover his tracks, and let Hillary in on it, so it won’t be that damaging to her.

    Read More
  17. countenance says: • Website

    I have always thought that aggravated assault with a firearm (or general) is a way better acid test metric of how violent a place is rather than murder, simply b/c ER trauma techniques have gotten way better in the last few decades in preventing some victims of the former crime from becoming victims of the latter crime.

    Read More
    • Replies: @NOTA
    Murders are more consistently reported across different times and locations. A city trying to game its crime stats will under-report stuff like that--turn an attempted murder into an assault, for example. David Simon claimed the Baltimore PD did this under O'Malley, and one of his bits of evidence was that O'Malley's policing reforms led to a lower rate of aggravated assaults but the same number of murders.
  18. countenance says: • Website
    @Dave Pinsen
    Related to this, and your previous post about George Soros, what are we to make of Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    “What are we to make of BLM heckling Hillary?”

    Easy. Attention hounds using an easy mark to draw attention to themselves. Looksatme.

    Read More
  19. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    They keep calling it ‘gun violence’ instead of what it actually is and that’s ‘black violence’. It’s a black-driven affair. For any discussion to lead anywhere communication has to be sincere and honest. Using misleading terms from the outset hampers clarity of thinking and around we go in circles. As commenter Glossy above points out there was a demographic change in NYC which produced different results. All the talk about policing methods, the ‘broken windows’ approach, Giuliani, were just ancillary to the main factor. Ghetto black types act like New Guinean tribesmen engaged in tribal vendettas. The unspoken idea seems to be to break them up and scatter them around but unfortunately wherever they go there they are.

    Read More
  20. TWalsh2 says:

    In 2005 New Orleans exported many of its future violent actors – partial explanation for whatever decrease in violence there actually is in N.O. Those on High understand – defuse violence in cities through diffusion of violent actors.

    Read More
  21. Bill says:
    @Dave Pinsen
    Related to this, and your previous post about George Soros, what are we to make of Black Lives Matter heckling Hillary? The previous thesis was that Soros-backed BLM targeted Bernie because Soros likes Hillary.

    You don’t control a human asset the way you control a car or a program. The difficulty of getting another human to do “what I would have done” in a particular situation is why there is this thing, this field of study, this urgent need of organizations everywhere called management. It’s especially bad when the asset’s interests, preferences, and culture are dramatically different from your own.

    Read More
  22. The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice.

    Odd, we’ve had this crap raging in Florida for a few years now. I’m sure you’ll recall our cannibal from the news and we’ve had some other high profile incidents.

    I also worry for long term result of this. My own thought is that people will self medicate. It’s not possible to prevent it. If not “spice” then model glue or spray paint or gasoline. Better we decriminalize drugs we know more about and which the users would prefer if cost were no barrier. I’d rather these junkies were using opium. Let the “opiate” of the junkies be opium. At least we would know exactly what we were in for and can easily screen people we cannot afford to have stoned in society (i.e. doctors, children, cops, pilots, etc).

    As Alex Shulgin showed us, there is no end to the psychoactive substances or the innovation of the chemist. Better to write off the junkies than have cannibals eating mom’s face when she goes downtown for a dinner with friends.

    Read More
  23. Langley says:

    “While New Orleans appears to be experiencing a change in luck, Baltimore is experiencing a dramatic jump in gun violence.”

    Shades of R.A.H.! Does Nate know what a cliché he is? It is not luck it is behaviour. Behaviour that is encouraged. It is not “gun violence” it is the violence of the Black population.

    Read More
  24. Director says:

    Absolutely amazing how the Silver Mine dodges the correlation with black demographics on this one.

    They really are Eloi or worse.

    Read More
  25. NOTA says:
    @countenance
    I have always thought that aggravated assault with a firearm (or general) is a way better acid test metric of how violent a place is rather than murder, simply b/c ER trauma techniques have gotten way better in the last few decades in preventing some victims of the former crime from becoming victims of the latter crime.

    Murders are more consistently reported across different times and locations. A city trying to game its crime stats will under-report stuff like that–turn an attempted murder into an assault, for example. David Simon claimed the Baltimore PD did this under O’Malley, and one of his bits of evidence was that O’Malley’s policing reforms led to a lower rate of aggravated assaults but the same number of murders.

    Read More
  26. NOTA says:
    @Clifford Brown
    The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice. The drug really exploded, especially among the homeless population. I experienced the zombie crowd this Summer around the 125th and Lexington Subway stop. Deeply disturbing. Straight out of The Walking Dead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfNFnMAlXqA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnqjQkees9Q

    I haven't seen any naked dudes on the streets, but I have seen people in this state.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCOv50pr63A

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPmSeMhibUc

    K2 is usually sold legally though bodegas by Yemeni immigrants. The packs sell for a dollar or two a pop which is the ideal price point for destitute. The active cannabinoid agents are often manufactured in China and then combined with spices in the US and sold as an "incense" type product. It's an especially dirty drug and the long term implications of its toxicity on users is unknown.

    It is often used as a pot substitute by people on parole or who are subject to a drug test. Because it is so cheap, it has really hit the homeless in New York City. Some users become addicted and repeated use can lead to PCP like episodes. I have seen a few of these people on the street and it isn't pretty. I assumed it was PCP (not that I have ever seen anyone on PCP), but the insane, manic, sweaty delusional nature of users is straight out of an after school special.

    It is an interesting experiment for the drug legalization debate. K2 appears to be terrible for the long term physical and mental health of the users, but because of its low price point and that fact that it is legally sold out of bodegas meant that so far at least, there is little gang crime associated with the drug. There is no money to be made on the street level, although I am sure that Triad organized crime or some other organized crime is involved in some way on the bulk level. A few weeks ago, the New York City Council banned the drug, but enforcement is difficult because the "chefs" continually rework the formula.

    While there has been an astronomical explosion in hospital emergency room visits, overall it has not had a material impact on the crime rate for now.

    This is approximately the one zillionth scary new drug destroying the world. Mostly these are hype, though crack did manage to fill up a lot of graveyards.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    There really hasn't been a catastrophic new drug since crack three decades ago, which was a surprise to me. I figured there'd be one major new drug per decade or two, but it hasn't turned out that way.

    In part, this is because of quasi-legalization of a lot of pharmaceutical company-manufactured downers.
  27. @NOTA
    This is approximately the one zillionth scary new drug destroying the world. Mostly these are hype, though crack did manage to fill up a lot of graveyards.

    There really hasn’t been a catastrophic new drug since crack three decades ago, which was a surprise to me. I figured there’d be one major new drug per decade or two, but it hasn’t turned out that way.

    In part, this is because of quasi-legalization of a lot of pharmaceutical company-manufactured downers.

    Read More
  28. @Boomstick
    "Around 34 percent of nearly 3,000 shooting incidents in Baltimore since 2010 have ended in a fatality. "

    This seems like a shockingly high rate of fatal shooting incidents. For example, Chicago's year-to-date stats are 2558 shot, of which 378 were killed and 2180 wounded, for an overall fatality rate of around 15%. The vast majority of shooting incidents involve handguns, which are just not all that lethal. 10-15% is a typical death rate for someone shot with a handgun. Rifles increase that to maybe the 30% range, and shotguns can get to 50%, but the later two are almost never used.

    The stats don't directly compare--a "shooting incident" may have multiple victims, presumably, and the joint fatality rate is probably somewhat higher than an individual fatality rate. But again from the Chicago stats, shootings in which more than three people are hit are pretty rare.

    I'd want to see what was going on in the underlying data. If that's valid, I'd want to see what's going on in the local emergency rooms. Or maybe look at why the gangstas are getting more lethal.

    Murder data is quite good, because there’s a body to explain. “Shooting incident” is a flexible term, and there often won’t be any victims, so I’d expect the data to be bad.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    A lot of cities now have high tech "shot locator" devices that listen for gunshots. I don't know how reliable they are, but they might be getting pretty good at recording all gunshots. (Can they reliable distinguish gunshots from backfires? Do cars backfire much anymore?)
    , @Boomstick
    The "shot and wounded" data is OK, because most of the wounded seek medical care, and the gunshot wounds are reported by the hospital. I'd be shocked if reports of shots fired alone counted as a "shooting incident" in the Baltimore data.

    The Minneapolis shot locator map data is online:

    http://www.ci.minneapolis.mn.us/police/statistics/crime-statistics_codefor_shotsfired

    Stay out of NW Minneapolis, I guess.
  29. @Eric Rasmusen
    Murder data is quite good, because there's a body to explain. "Shooting incident" is a flexible term, and there often won't be any victims, so I'd expect the data to be bad.

    A lot of cities now have high tech “shot locator” devices that listen for gunshots. I don’t know how reliable they are, but they might be getting pretty good at recording all gunshots. (Can they reliable distinguish gunshots from backfires? Do cars backfire much anymore?)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Rob McX
    And how about fireworks? New Year's Eve would be the ideal time to do a hit on someone. Also, a good place would be close to a shooting range during opening hours. I think all the electronic/computer stuff under the bonnet of a car these days prevents the good old-fashioned backfire that would make you jump a foot in the air. At least I haven't heard one for years.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Do cars backfire much anymore?
     
    You live in the Hispanic capital of the United States, and you have to ask us?
  30. Rob McX says:
    @Steve Sailer
    A lot of cities now have high tech "shot locator" devices that listen for gunshots. I don't know how reliable they are, but they might be getting pretty good at recording all gunshots. (Can they reliable distinguish gunshots from backfires? Do cars backfire much anymore?)

    And how about fireworks? New Year’s Eve would be the ideal time to do a hit on someone. Also, a good place would be close to a shooting range during opening hours. I think all the electronic/computer stuff under the bonnet of a car these days prevents the good old-fashioned backfire that would make you jump a foot in the air. At least I haven’t heard one for years.

    Read More
  31. @Steve Sailer
    A lot of cities now have high tech "shot locator" devices that listen for gunshots. I don't know how reliable they are, but they might be getting pretty good at recording all gunshots. (Can they reliable distinguish gunshots from backfires? Do cars backfire much anymore?)

    Do cars backfire much anymore?

    You live in the Hispanic capital of the United States, and you have to ask us?

    Read More
  32. Boomstick says:
    @Eric Rasmusen
    Murder data is quite good, because there's a body to explain. "Shooting incident" is a flexible term, and there often won't be any victims, so I'd expect the data to be bad.

    The “shot and wounded” data is OK, because most of the wounded seek medical care, and the gunshot wounds are reported by the hospital. I’d be shocked if reports of shots fired alone counted as a “shooting incident” in the Baltimore data.

    The Minneapolis shot locator map data is online:

    http://www.ci.minneapolis.mn.us/police/statistics/crime-statistics_codefor_shotsfired

    Stay out of NW Minneapolis, I guess.

    Read More

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