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Homicides are “cleared” by the police when the case is no longer open and unsolved. Homicide clearance rates should be increasing over time due to improved technology such as DNA, video, and cell phones as tracking devices.

For most groups in America, this has been somewhat true over time. But clearance rates for homicides with black victims have dropped from over 80% in the mid-1970s to under 60% during the Ferguson Era, according to this graph from the Murder Accountability Project: Tracking America’s Unsolved Homicides.

Black murders accounted for all of America’s clearance decline

Declining homicide clearance rates for African-American victims accounted for all of the nation’s alarming decline in law enforcement’s ability to clear murders through the arrest of criminal offenders, according to a new study of data compiled by the nonprofit Murder Accountability Project (MAP). …

From a MAP report:

The decline in clearance rates for African American homicides occurred throughout most communities in the United States, regardless of size. It was significant in major cities (21.0 percentage points and 25.8 percentage points) for cities with more than 250,000 population or more than 100,000 to 250,000 population respectively. It was slightly smaller (13.7 percentage points) for rural counties not within a metropolitan area (non MSA counties).

This finding is troubling in that it undercuts – at least somewhat – suggestions that the racial disparity can be attributed to rising levels of gang- and organized-drug activity in major cities. These problems do not occur evenly throughout the nation. That declining clearance rates for black murders have occurred in rural America is especially troubling. Historically rural America enjoys the nation’s most robust clearance rates since law enforcement is in a position to
implement everybody-knows-everybody community policing. But rural police increasingly struggle to solve black murders at much the same rate as urban authorities.

Black victim clearance rates are worst in big cities over 250k: 53% in this decade. But they don’t get that much better in smaller towns. In contrast, when a white person is murdered in a rural area or a town under 10,000 people, the cops’ clearance rate lately is just under 90%.

Some of this decline was probably that the cops less often beat confessions out of suspects.

Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside documents the significance of witness-murdering in South-Central Los Angeles in keeping murders from being cleared.

One implication is that if homicides with black victims are now about a 1/3rd less likely to be cleared than homicides with non-black victims, what does that imply for the Obama Administration’s Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2011 finding that blacks were about 7.6 times more likely than whites/Hispanics to be “homicide offenders?”

A popular theory would be that most of these black victims with uncleared murders were murdered by roving lynch mobs of white MAGA-hatted smirkers in league with the homicide detectives.

A more realistic assumption is that most of the black victims whose murders are uncleared were murdered by fellow blacks. If true, this would make the ratio of homicides committed by blacks relative to non-blacks even higher.

By the way, isn’t it about time for the Trump Administration to get its Bureau of Justice Statistics to publish some updated reports on homicide? The most recent on the BJS’s homicide web page dates to 2014, before the Late Obama Age Collapse. Without Official Government Reports to cite (e.g., Rotherham), journalists tend to not touch unfashionable realities, such as the shocking rise in murder in the two years following the Establishment’s Meltdown over Ferguson. Yet, the last full Homicide report from the BJS dates to 2011.

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  1. prosa123 says:

    It would not surprise me in the least if many police departments take a lackadaisical approach toward investigating black-on-black homicides.

  2. Tony says:

    Snitches get stitches and end up in ditches. Word up.

  3. Kronos says:

    Perhaps it better to let dead dogs lie?

  4. @prosa123

    black-on-black homicides

    aka “misdemeanor homidicides”.

    I agree, I would not be surprised if there is a lackadaisical approach to them but would guess its more from experience (the knowledge that witnesses won’t cooperate and the detective’s efforts will be futile) than a view that black lives matter less (I know you did not assert this).

    A huge percentage of violent crimes are solved through witnesses and motives. Detectives figure out who had a beef with the deceased and then start asking questions. If nobody will talk its really hard to make progress unless there is video or somebody walks in and confesses, the motive leads them directly to a murder weapon, etc. Meanwhile after a day or two of the stonewalling witnesses, the detectives have been assigned another homicide and off they go, waiting to see “if anyone comes forward” on the prior one.

    • Agree: sayless
  5. Alden says:

    I read ghettoside. Like so many children of affirmative action black government employees the kid was involved in crime. He was shot in front of witnesses. It took years for the witnesses to admit what they saw. I suspect the author covered up the jid’s real criminal history.

    They don’t care about us, why should care about them?

  6. Art Deco says:

    I’m skeptical that there were actually such high clearance rates in 1975, given the higher frequency of homicide, understaffed police forces, and fewer tools to identify perpetrators. I want to know how these data were assembled.

    With some exceptions, perpetrators tend to be people in the social circle of the victim. The low clearance rate for blacks I’ll wager reflects an unwillingness to co-operate with law enforcement generally, some of which may be due to intimidation. There’s a great deal of discussion of ‘gangs’, but I’ve never seen much indication that organized crime was a problem outside the most populous slums. Disorganized feral youths are a problem in any city.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    , @Bubba
    , @Anon
    , @Alden
  7. J.Ross says:

    And if the community engagement, availability of information, and most of all the in-house institutional “support” (the behavior of our out-of-control illegitimate judges, the statements of our cop-hating mayors) were applied to any other endeavor, I would not be surprised to find similar failure.

  8. anon[423] • Disclaimer says:

    The graph Steve presents is easy to understand after viewing some episodes of “The First 48” from a few years back.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  9. Charon says:

    The World’s Second-Most Important Graph

  10. Overpolicing or underpolicing? Choose based on your argument.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  11. JMcG says:
    @Art Deco

    A lot of the refusal to snitch is down to the fact that relatives of the victim would rather kill the murderer themselves than take a chance on a jury doing the right thing.

  12. The declining clearance rate for homicides of our most vibrant citizens is a feature, not a bug.

  13. Whites need this ethos, EXCEPT it’s okay to snitch on invaders and liberals

  14. Art Deco says:
    @Joe, Averaged

    Underpolicing, of course. And the placement of police services at the wrong level of government. County governments or consortia of counties should be providers of these services.

  15. KunioKun says:

    Could the refusal to snitch be fear that the police will look into the snitcher and find illegal activities, thus making snitching extremely unprofitable for the snitcher with regard to the law?

    Another angle is Blacks love to talk endlessly. It is possible that they are self aware of this and they know if they snitch they will end up telling everybody in the neighborhood that they are the snitch bringing anger and fury from the murderers innumerable family members.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    , @Art Deco
  16. Bubba says:
    @Art Deco

    I’m skeptical that there were actually such high clearance rates in 1975, given the higher frequency of homicide, understaffed police forces, and fewer tools to identify perpetrators. I want to know how these data were assembled.

    Yes, totally agree with that statement. Plus no corpus delicti ruled in those days.

  17. Bubba says:

    Don’t know, the black community has never trusted the police and have my doubts about clearance rates being so high for them from ’76 to ’92.

  18. Anon[259] • Disclaimer says:
    @Art Deco

    I suspect the clearance rates were accurate. Black families were not as fragmented are they are today, and it’s likely that anyone who tried to punish a snitch would be taking his life into his hands if he did so. There was a layer of older black males to police the black community. Snitches got more protection back then, and sentences for blacks were harsher. You didn’t get a slap on the wrist for a serious crime that left you able to get out of prison promptly to take revenge. Not punishing blacks to the full extent of the law results in black murders that don’t get solved.

    • Replies: @Jesse
    , @Art Deco
    , @Sam Coulton
  19. @KunioKun

    Could the refusal to snitch be fear that the police will look into the snitcher and find illegal activities, thus making snitching extremely unprofitable for the snitcher with regard to the law?

    Like this fellow:

    Joshua Brown, Witness in Amber Guyger Trial, Was Killed in a Drug Deal, Police Say

    DALLAS — He testified against a former Dallas police officer on trial for murder, and 10 days later, he was dead.

    The slaying of Joshua Brown, a neighbor who had heard gunshots across the hall on the night when 26-year-old Botham Shem Jean was killed in his apartment by an off-duty police officer, rattled many who had followed the recent high-profile trial. There was speculation that he had been killed in retaliation, or that perhaps the trial had brought him dangerous publicity.

    But on Tuesday, the Dallas Police Department offered a far different explanation: Mr. Brown, 28, was killed during a drug deal, it said, and detectives were pursuing capital murder charges against three suspects. Two of the suspects were in custody, and another was at large, the police said.

    “There has been speculation and rumors that have been shared by community leaders claiming that Mr. Brown’s death was related to the Amber Guyger trial and that somehow the Dallas Police Department was responsible,” Avery Moore, an assistant chief who oversees criminal investigations, said at a news conference. “I assure you that is simply not true.”

    The Times must have been disappointed that the case was resolved so quickly. If it hadn’t been they could have speculated that the police were responsible for weeks on end.

  20. Hibernian says:

    Louis Farrakhan owes his freedom to this phenomenon.

    • Replies: @Jesse
  21. Rob says:

    I got to put in with Alden, et al. Does this affect us at all? Unlike other black crimes, black murders are mostly intra-race. If catching more b2b murderers saves white lives, I’m all for it. But a high crime rate in the cities reduces the pull of cities for whites, upping their birth rates and making them more pro-civilization. Much like the coming crime wave in big cities and mixed suburbs from deincarceration and depolicing, it’s good for Republicans, our best hope for a pro-white party.

    I guess Steve’s a civic nationalist at heart, and so’s concerned about the lives of the other sides, but for those of us with more flexible or utilitarian ethics, should we care? There are lots of things to spend money on and limited political capital. The other side killing each other sounds ok. I mean, how much do they care about the white death rate, the White Death, in particular?

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  22. @Rob

    Human indifference to the sufferings of others is both universal and boundless, and does not discriminate based on race. Almost all murder victims—black, white, or otherwise—are largely forgotten before the bodies turn cold, just as nobody seriously thinks of the thousands who perish daily in foreign hellholes.

    I don’t think there is crying need to dissuade people from an excess of caring. People find it way too easy to not care enough as it is. But if we stop enforcing the law, we’ve basically given up on civilization. The only way that black people and indeed any people will behave themselves is if they know the consequences for not doing so will be severe.

    There really is no downside to getting black criminals off the streets. If we cannot or will not pay for more law enforcement, then there is no point bothering with anything else.

  23. Jesse says:

    No. Look at Samuel Little. The guy was engaged in any number of serious crimes against women on that period, and spent almost no time in prison for it.

    On that note, you have to wonder how many serial killers were stopped simply by getting a few decades in prison for earlier crimes.

  24. Medvedev says:

    Why would humans (Whites), elves (Asians) or dwarfs (Hispanic mestizos) care that orcs murder each other?

  25. Kronos says:

    It seems that Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” shows up in in the most unlikely of places.

  26. Back when Youngstown was Murder Capital USA in the 90s, a guy chased his victim into the field of an elementary school football game, shot and killed him. Nobody saw the guy. Several hundred people, nobody got a good look at the murderer.

  27. Ed says:

    Imagine spending your day speaking to sub 85 IQ people. Many of them rude or nasty. I bet the detectives just go through the motions.

    • Agree: bruce county
    • Replies: @anon
  28. Art Deco says:

    Another angle is Blacks love to talk endlessly.

    No, voluble blacks love to talk endlessly. A great many black men are Easter Island statues and won’t utter two words in an entire evening.

  29. Art Deco says:

    Criminal sentences were not harsher in 1975. Quite the contrary. Mandatory minimums were a response by state legislators to the laxity and indifference of our awful judiciary.

  30. According to, the 2019 murder clearance rate in Chicago is currently holding strong at 9.5%. Yes, that’s 9.5%.

  31. Interesting to note… As seen on many other like pages.. Black crime has a quasi precursor event in many instances. The Fersuson Effect. The Rodney King Event. The Freedie Gray Incident. The Obama Era. The aboved combined has delivered us the great equalizer movement “BLM”. Revolts and uprisings to storylines pushed by mainstream media regardless of the true facts and statistics. Social media has decayed the justice system. Swathes of governments run by low IQ blacks happy to let their societies fall to ruin because its “Our Mutha Fukkin City Now”. A few years back during the Detroit mayoral race, half of the candidates were convicted felons. Telling indeed. Many great quotes can be found in Kerseys books about Detroit and Baltimore. Or.. weez gonna “Burn This Mutha Fukka Down”. Ahhhh…The negro solution.
    All black juries refusing to convict black perps for white murders or black on white crime.
    The way I see it .. They have it all; a fair and equal playing field, and now they have nothing.

  32. 3511353

    Do you have a newspaper article confirming that this event actually happened?

    The victim was a notorious wife-beater, according to my co-workers. None of the neighborhood church ladies liked or had any respect for him. A simple– and common– case of “Good riddance!”

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  33. Just delete my comment… obvioulsy not worthy of publishing.. My mistake.

  34. @Reg Cæsar

    Evidently not all Erie County blacks were on board with my church lady colleagues. At least they thought he got off light:

    Mrs. Hamilton attended a news conference Monday in a Sandusky church where the president of the local chapter of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People charged that the videotape trial was a “judicial farce.” Emanuel Irby said the trial was “replete with all the thrills and hoopla of a circus, with the exception of selling peanuts, popcorn and cotton candy.”

    His trial was somewhat historic– evidently the first videotaped anywhere.

  35. Alden says:
    @Art Deco

    When one of your brothers kills another of your brothers, or baby daddy kills one of your kids, people can be reluctant to speak with police.

    Plus, there’s retribution from the rest of the defendant’s family.

  36. anon[245] • Disclaimer says:

    It likely varies with the departmental leadership and the detectives involved.
    That American TV show “The First 48” is a real eye opener to a lot of people, even more than “Cops”.

    • Replies: @Ed
  37. Ed says:

    That show was often too real for many cities that are run by blacks. I believe it has been banned from Detroit, Memphis and Birmingham among a few. That’s why they are stuck in cities like Tulsa.

    • Replies: @anon
  38. Sam Coulton [AKA "S.S.M Coulton"] says:

    You are moderately mentally handicapped.

  39. Flip says:

    Malcolm X, I’d think.

  40. Keypusher says:

    I wound up working on a criminal appeal for a homicide in Queens in 2005. Five Puerto Ricans killed a Greco-American. The cops just arrested Puerto Rican witnesses to make them testify, otherwise no one would have gone to jail. (The Greeks, with one (unreliable) exception, were afraid.). The cops managed to get enough evidence to put three of the Puerto Ricans on trial. One was acquitted (his lawyer basically build his case on the fact that the cops had arrested his co-ethnics without cause). One, the worst, was convicted and is still in. One was convicted and got out a year ago, after 14 years. I got him out. Rough justice? Approximately.

  41. Lawlessness may be increasing in “communities of color?” Nobody saw THAT coming..Oh..Wait.. everybody did except brain-dead Democrats!

  42. @prosa123

    That was the norm decades ago. Newspapers didn’t even report them.

  43. anon[292] • Disclaimer says:

    It is the most race realistic television available. Figured it wouldn’t be allowed. Sure enough, banned in some black cities.

    It was inverse Dick Wolfe Law and Order. The obvious perp turns out to be the obvious perp. How novel.

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