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Shiller: Trump Is Personally Keeping a Recession Away
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From CNBC:

Robert Shiller: Recession likely years away due to bullish Trump effect
PUBLISHED 5 HOURS AGO
Stephanie Landsman @STEPHLANDSMAN

Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.

According to the Yale University professor, President Donald Trump is creating an environment that’s conducive to strong consumer spending, and it’s a major force that should hold off a recession.

“Consumers are hanging in there. You might wonder why that would be at this time so late into the cycle. This is the longest expansion ever. Now, you can say the expansion was partly [President Barack] Obama,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “But lingering on this long needs an explanation.”

Shiller, a behavioral finance expert who’s out with the new book “Narrative Economics,” believes Americans are still opening their wallets wide based on what President Trump exemplifies: Consumption.

“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” said Shiller.

Shiller emphasizes there’s still uncertainty and risk surrounding Wall Street.

Before the markets can take-off, Shiller stresses President Trump needs to get past the impeachment inquiry. He sees this as the biggest threat to his optimistic forecast.

“If he survives that, he might contribute for some time in boosting the market,” said Shiller. “We’re maybe in the Trump era, and I think that Donald Trump by inspiration had an effect on the market — not just tax cutting.”

This reminds me of why I gave up on having macroeconomic opinions.

 
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  1. ziel says:

    I think understanding the economy is like being a liberal and trying to understand social phenomena – like why are some schools low-performing while others are high-performing? Why does this neighborhood have high crime while that one doesn’t? How come this group of immigrants is wealthy while this one is poor? You try all kinds of things and none of them work – it’s a complete mystery! But not to us HBD-aware deplorables – we know the secret!

    So understanding the economy I think is like that – only no one knows the secret.

    • Replies: @Mike1
    , @Ash Williams
  2. newrouter says:

    >“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” said Shiller.<

    or more money in their wallet?

    • Agree: Father O'Hara
    • Replies: @Papa
  3. Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller

    Wow, is it too late to deplatform this guy? He needs deplatforming.

  4. anon[350] • Disclaimer says:

    Is there any possibility consumers, perhaps also the rich, might boost their spending under the assumption a democrat might get elected and impose a tax increase? Spend it while you have it and before they take it? But who knows. Economics is something best left to hindsight. That way, everyone can have an opinion and no one can be wrong – or so everyone with an opinion will claim.

    • Replies: @Dube
    , @TomSchmidt
  5. The power of positive thinking.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    , @Anonymous
  6. I think he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about. The country is still paying off the last debacle.

    Incomes have not increased across the board.

    The employment numbers reflect people working, not how deep that work is: full time, income level, impost verses exports . . .and we are still measuring GDP by what’s produced and remains on the shelf.

    I simply don’t buy it. I support the executive, but a nobel prize winner or not I am not spending money based on how the president spends money. Given the real numbers, the prop up could end anytime.

    • Agree: Houston 1992
    • Replies: @Kronos
  7. anon[423] • Disclaimer says:

    Maybe it is just me, but that looks a lot like ‘It’s different this time!”.

  8. Not topical, but amusing, nonetheless – white supremacist defends Jewish lobbyist for unleashing anti-Chinese tirade. In Canada:

    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/opinion/canadian-far-right-china-loom-in-parking-lot-dispute/

    • Replies: @European-American
  9. BB753 says:

    It’s simply the Art of the Deal!

  10. “Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” Keynes (of course)

    • Replies: @anon
    , @AnotherDad
  11. anon[292] • Disclaimer says:

    Is it as simple as:

    Trump=Animal Spirits?

    All Trump has actually done is less. I would attribute it to that.

    And sine all the Democrats can agree on is more government “help” its easy to see one future outcome.

  12. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr McKenna

    That doesnt work when you have tenure,

  13. Dtbb says:

    Will the Dems sabotage the economy to win the presidency? I wouldn’t put it past them.

    • Replies: @JudgeSmails
    , @Rex Little
  14. Trump Is Personally Keeping a Recession Away

    An orange a day…

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  15. unit472 says:

    I think the media and left are loath to admit Trump’s drill drill drill policies have kept oil and gas prices down for Americans. Natural gas prices in particular ( current price $2.31 per thousand cu.ft) feed back to Americans in food, electricity and heating costs. I remember after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed the GoM gas fields people’s gas bills soared such that heating their house that winter cost more than paying their mortgage. $100 per barrel oil prices meant $4.oo per gallon gasoline too.

    Be a different world for consumers today if Trump hadn’t shitcanned carbon taxes and blocked fracking as the econuts wanted.

  16. anon[423] • Disclaimer says:
    @ThreeCranes

    In the long run Keynes is still dead.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • LOL: Unladen Swallow
    • Replies: @Neoconned
  17. The idea that we should vote a politician in or out based on whether the economic growth rate is -0.3% vs 1.2% or whatever in the period of time around the election–as the young ladies say, I can’t even.

    First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.

    Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.

    Thirdly elected politicians don’t have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it’s silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn’t know that until recently (and we still don’t know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)

    Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.

    Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn’t have time to cook–great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use–even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery–OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.

    GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.

  18. @unit472

    Agree–fracking has been like a phantom stimulus for over a decade now that has allowed the fed to get away with extremely loose monetary policy without triggering inflation.

    If fracking falters…look out.

    Also somewhat humorously fracking has lowered US CO2 emissions quite a bit since natural gas displaced coal for most electricity generation. Burning CH4 obviously makes less CO2 than pure C.

  19. The fact that blowing all your hard-earned dough on useless crap like a house afire is a sign of economic “health” is itself a sign of the apocalypse.

  20. @Johann Ricke

    Amusing indeed!

    The video of the incident in the parking lot is funny. The Jewish lady’s rude and racist tirade, while regrettable (as far as I can tell, but who knows what happened, I’m not judging…), is oddly catchy in its sing-songy way.


    Best comment: “jeong_nguyen: I thought candians were supposed to be nice”.

    The ensuing debate as detailed in the article is noteworthy for its many demographic, political, and free speech angles. When did Canada get so interesting?

    For example, the “Say NO to Mass Immigration” billboard campaign that was canceled by the billboard company after a political outcry.
    https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/08/26/immigration-ads-pulled-bernier/

    • LOL: jim jones
  21. @Mr McKenna

    Considering the crowd he runs with (the Yale faculty), what he told this reporter means he’s a Trump voter for sure. In that crowd, if you aren’t condemning Trump every time you mention him, you’re a closet Trumpian.

    • Agree: Dan Hayes, Kronos, Bill
  22. Anonymous[375] • Disclaimer says:

    This is true, but I think it’s mainly due to Trump browbeating Jerome Powell and the Fed into cutting interest rates twice this year. And Powell said a couple weeks ago that he might cut rates again soon.

    Even with the cuts so far, Trump has been on Powell’s ass and keeping up the pressure on him:

    “Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.html

    President Trump urged Wednesday for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero or even usher in negative rates, suggesting a last-ditch monetary policy tactic tested abroad but never in America.

    His comments came just one day before European policymakers are widely expected to cut a key rate further into negative territory.

    In a series of tweets, Mr. Trump said, “The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt,” adding that “the USA should always be paying the the lowest rate.”

    Mr. Trump continued to criticize his handpicked Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, saying, “It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing.”

    He concluded by calling Mr. Powell, whom he nominated to head the central bank in 2017, and his Fed colleagues “Boneheads.”

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @jill
    , @Neoconned
  23. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:

    This reminds me why I have not given up thinking all boomers need to be put into camps.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  24. Kronos says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    It sure helped Richard II. He thought animals would come to the rescue to protect “the divine right of kings.”

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  25. Kronos says:
    @EliteCommInc.

    Go’s to show the the major difference between the real economy and the stock market.

  26. Hail says: • Website

    Schiller: Trump Is Personally Keeping a Recession Away
    STEVE SAILER • OCTOBER 20, 2019

    Schiller

    vs.

    From CNBC:
    Robert Shiller: Recession likely years away [….]

    Shiller

    Steve Sailer has Germaned-up this man’s name.

    Maybe Robert Shiller goes around writing “Steve Schailer.”

    • Replies: @European-American
    , @Hail
  27. @Hail

    The proper germanification of Steve’s last name is of course “Seiler”.

    “The Seiler surname is derived from the German word “Seil,” meaning “rope,” and as such it is thought to have originally been an occupational name for a maker of rope.”

    As for Shiller, all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller

    Shiller seems to have been pretty good at predicting bursting bubbles. Hope he’s right about the current expansion remaining unpopped…

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Hail
  28. JimB says:
    @SimpleSong

    GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.

    My favorite comment of the month.

    • Replies: @Hail
  29. @Kronos

    As others have pointed out, the minister at young Donald Trump’s family church was one Norman Vincent Peale.

    When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.

  30. @European-American

    The story is that we were named Seiler until an ancestor became mayor of the small Swiss town of Wil, at which point he thought it more fitting for the family dignity to adopt the less blue collar spelling of Sailer, much like a Smith becoming a Smythe.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  31. Hail says: • Website
    @JimB

    Someone inform the Gold Box that his presence is requested.

  32. @Anonymous

    Tenure may protect against defenestration, but absolutely anyone can be deplatformed. Consider that Twitter is considering deplatforming the President of the United States.

    If Shiller keeps up like this he’ll find out he’s not getting interviewed any more. Dinner invitations, speaking engagements, friendly tennis matches. Toast.

    Fortunately his auto mechanic is probably like-minded so at least the brake lines on his car are safe, for now.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  33. @unit472

    Natural gas? I wonder how much we flare off, annually, in aggregate.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-flaring-explainer/explainer-why-are-us-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero-idUSKCN1RL2NL

    It’s cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful. Might even contribute to warming, but you didn’t hear that from me.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @AnotherDad
  34. Dtbb says:

    What’s with the ads?

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
  35. Shiller, a behavioral finance expert who’s out with the new book “Narrative Economics,”

    Shiller certainly doesn’t seem hostile to Trump generally. But this latest pro-Trump angle might be just a provocative way to move books.

    The whole “animal spirits” theory of macroeconomic cycles is interesting and somewhat plausible. But there’s no way to objectively test the weight of “spirits,” so I don’t think you can ever turn it into a falsifiable, scientific hypothesis. It’s just another reason why macroeconomics is still such an unpredictable mystery for most things that matter.

  36. Dube says:
    @anon

    Economics is something best left to hindsight.

    Sterling!

  37. Dan Hayes says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Buzz Mohawk:

    And don’t forget that The Donald first met Marla Maples, his future second wife, at Peale’s Marble Collegiate Church.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  38. Kronos says:
    @HammerJack

    They can hack it with computers now.

    • LOL: HammerJack
  39. Since we’ve been in a recession for the past 11 years, the idea that anybody is holding off anything is kind of nonsensical from the get go.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  40. Kronos says:
    @SimpleSong

    You have any favorite economic books?

  41. Kronos says:
    @anonymous

    They are, it’s called Florida.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  42. syonredux says:

    Insanely off-topic:

    Just watched the new WATCHMEN show on HBO. A few comments:

    The Lone Ranger was Black, y’all: The show opens with clips from a completely fictitious silent movie about Bass Reeves, the Black marshall in the OK territory who is allegedly the basis for the Lone Ranger. Unfortunately for the WOKE, that’s completely untrue:

    “Myth Debunked: Bass Reeves Was Not the Inspiration for The Lone Ranger”

    http://martingrams.blogspot.com/2018/02/myth-debunked-bass-reeves-was-not.html

    Is the Tulsa race riot the new Emmett Till?: We get a very lurid and bloody depiction of the 1921 Tulsa race riot.

    It’s not Cultural Appropriation when it’s done by POC: There’s an all-Black version of Oklahoma! ….

    It’s not fascism when we do it: The Tulsa cops all wear masks and are known by superhero-style codenames…..But they’re on the side of the Blacks against the evil White supremacist group called the Seventh Cavalry, which makes it ok….

    How to spot a White Supremacist: Give ’em an Implicit Bias test and see if they have a negative reaction to someone defecating on the US flag….And remember, they’re really stupid and probably won’t know what “defecating” means…..

    We’ve still got Nixon to kick around: The super-evil White Supremacists live in a place called “Nixonville.”

    It’s all rather dire…..and the soundtrack, for some reason, sounds like something that John Carpenter might have composed…..

  43. Lots of people have won the Swedish Bank’s economics Nobel prize, but Robert Shiller would be a very big deal economist in the post-war era even without that recognition. His Rational Expectations and the Structure of Interest Rates paper (which was also his Ph.D. thesis, iirc) would easily make it into any list of the ten most important papers in economics since WWII.

    • Replies: @Muse
  44. MEH 0910 says:

    OT:

  45. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @HammerJack

    When gasoline gets to a certain level of cheapness, we should tax it but not propane, natural gas, or biofuels that are made from real exergy-positive methods (i.e., not corn derived ethanol).

  46. Hail says: • Website
    @European-American

    all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910

    Interesting story. Surname of German origin in Lithuania?

    His father is listed as a Benjamin Peter Shiller, a.k.a. Bronislovas Petras Šileris, born early 1910s to George Shiller [b.1887] and Amelia Miller [b.1892], both of Lithuania. Nobel Prize-winner Shiller characterizes his paternal grandfather, in an aside during his book Finance and the Good Society, as an opponent of the Czarist regime who emigrated because Lithuania was then still a Russian province with little hope of independence (until the 1914 short war turned long and the 1917 communist cataclysm happened).

    His mother is listed as Ruth Radsville (daughter of Vincas Radziwilas [b.1877] and Rosalia Serys [b.1880s?]), both of Lithuania, resident in Chicago from 191o? to 1916 and Detroit thereafter.

    Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller is himself of Detroit upbringing.

    Šileris

    Funny, but that looks a lot like ‘Sailer,’ in (pseudo-)Latinized-medievalized form.

    The Internet says Šileris is just the Lithuanian spelling of the German surname S(c)hiller. The Lithuanian wiki page ‘Šileris’ redirects to the Friedrich Schiller page.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @anon
  47. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    George Shiller and Amelia Miller, both of Lithuania

    That both husband and wife had German names suggests to me they were from the Memel coastal area, the once-German section of Lithuania that all students of WWII will recall as the area ceded to Germany after a Hitler ultimatum in 1939. (There were 90,000 Germans counted in the 1920s censuses in Lithuania, two-thirds in Memel, where they outnumbered Lithuanians.) Grandmother Amelia (search for “Amelia Shiller” [nee Miller]) had an exotic, very much Lappoid-type look. General Hindenburg was of a similar, Baltid anthropological type but less Lappoid in appearance.

    Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as “Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language” in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).

    Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:

    Everyone agreed the name [Shiller] was German, and he [grandfather George Shiller (b.1887)] lived in the town Gaurė in part of Lithuania that was substantially German in origin [about 20km east of the Memelland proper], and close to the Prussian border and the city of Königsberg (now Kaliningrad), but he had no known family history to link to Germany and he spoke only minimal German. He chose to spell his name George Shiller in America

    One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn’t be surprised if Memel’ers did the same.

    In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller’s ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania’s capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
    , @Steve Sailer
    , @anon
  48. He’s certainly keeping the Treason Media, Treason Consultants, and Treason Lobbyists swimming in LibTard cash.

  49. BenKenobi says:
    @Dtbb

    It’s the only thing worth a gold box these days.

  50. George says:

    The pharaoh had to feed his people, and, being a god on earth, during some time periods in ancient Egypt, he was seen as being in control of the fertilizing floods of the Nile.

    https://www.projecthistoryteacher.com/2007/10/role-of-pharaoh-in-ancient-egypt.html

    But there is nothing new under the sun:

    When the Pharaoh’s advisers failed to interpret these dreams, the cup-bearer remembered Joseph. Joseph was then summoned.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_(Genesis)#Vizier_of_Egypt

    Now we need to talk about Pharoah’s chief economic forecaster, Moses.

    The Egyptians shall know that I am the LORD.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagues_of_Egypt

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
  51. @Dtbb

    Will the Dems sabotage the economy to win the presidency? I wouldn’t put it past them.

    Oh hell yeah they would! Nothing is off the table with that faction’s single minded pursuit of political power.
    They will lie, cheat, steal, and, I’m convinced, kill to achieve their goals.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  52. @Buzz Mohawk

    Unfortunately, his brother disproved The Power Of Positive Drinking.

  53. @Anonymous

    The energy balance for grain ethanol has been solidly positive for over a decade.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  54. LondonBob says:
    @Anonymous

    Powell was right to raise rates, ultra low interest rates do more harm than good, but he did raise them too far, too fast.

    After a banking crisis economic growth is sluggish but continues for a longer time span than the usual business cycle. Trump’s policies have meant the US is an outlier during the current world economic slowdown. I think people have forgotten you can have slowdowns and that these don’t always turn in to systemic crises for the world financial system.

  55. @SimpleSong

    A terrific look beyond the same old same old economic reporting using, apparently, thanks to this post, the measure of GDP as a complete metric of economic conditions.

    And it’s presented in a easily understandable manner…almost simple.

    Thanks, SimpleSong

  56. Back in 2018, Peter Zeihan predicted there won’t be a major recession for at least 10 years, because millennials are finally earning enough to buy houses and start families. David Kohl has observed his students and many economists think we’re 1-2 years away from a recession. Bankers, who are actually in the economy, think 4-5 years.

  57. Anon[213] • Disclaimer says:

    His name is misspelled in the title (and URL). It should be either Shiller … or Schuller, if the winner of the Nobel Prize in televangelism is intended.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @ic1000
  58. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    OT, but of interest:

    “Steve Schailer.”

    The Internet thinks there is, in fact, a Steve Schailer out there and that he runs an Aussie Rules Touch Football training program:

    LEVEL 2 REFEREE COURSE
    New South Wales Hunter Western Hornets Regional Touch
    For more information contact Steve Schailer

    Australian Rules (Touch) Football is an occasional subject of discussion at iSteve.

  59. Dan Hayes says:
    @Hail

    Admit it. The end-purpose of this exercise is to establish whether or not Schiller is Jewish!

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  60. J.Ross says:
    @JudgeSmails

    They would but they might not be able to. Shiller’s meaning seems to be that, while no president can do a lot directly, every president sends signals about what priorities and foci he will assign his agencies, and after Obama’s Justice Department’s wrongheaded equity crusades, Trump wants to let every cash register ring: thus, businesses are taking this into account in their planning. Which is still sloppier than what we expect from a professor.

    • Replies: @JudgeSmails
  61. J.Ross says:
    @Dan Hayes

    Admit it, you were surprised that a respected Ivy League academic economist with a German last name was all but guaranteed to not be Jewish!

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
  62. @Hail

    Americans won’t believe it, but there have been smart people with German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish.

    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
  63. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kronos

    What would you say Mr. Sailer’s most boomerific position is?

    I think it’s probably his support for Mittens Romney. What a nasty, evil, dangerous character that Steve thinks we should all support as “a competent white man who should be in charge.”

    • Replies: @Kronos
  64. IHTG says:
    @Steve Sailer

    You’d think there would be at least a few alt-righters from Wisconsin who could set the others straight on this.

  65. It seems like whenever Trump fears that the Fed will raise rates (or not lower them), he ramps up the tariff talk against China, which spooks the markets and causes the Fed to lower rates. It’s a fine line he’s walking but it seems to be working.

    • Agree: Ash Williams
  66. @Intelligent Dasein

    Seriously, roughly where do you live? If northeast Ohio has help wanted signs out, and has for 3-5 years, the country isn’t in recession.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  67. SFG says:
    @SimpleSong

    All good points. (I’ve read quite a few of them–minus the immigration one, of course–in liberal magazines.)

    The unemployment rate’s supposed to be a better predictor as it gives a better impression of where people are subjectively, which is what determines their vote.

    • Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
  68. @SimpleSong

    First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth.

    Thank you for not using the awkward sounding (at least it is to me) “Firstly”. I guess it’s a perfectly acceptable word, but I kinda cringe when I encounter it.

    Pet peeve? Absolutely.

  69. @Anonymous

    That’s a nice thought, but you might consider the case of one of the most consequential scientists of the last 100 years, James D. Watson, 1962 Nobel Prize winner for describing the double-helix structure of DNA (along with Francis Crick). http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/01/01/james-watson-continues-to-commit-heinous-thought-crime/

  70. Anonymous[212] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Think and Grow Rich was Mitt Romney’s bible when he was younger not Trump’s.

    It’s very easy to make fun of a religion that literally takes communion in the form of Wonder bread, but the appeal of all of Mormonism’s mandated clean-cut decency is also pretty easy to figure out. It pairs well, for example, with motivational business-leadership books. In France, church leaders encouraged a young Mitt Romney to study “Think and Grow Rich,” the landmark self-help book written in 1937 by the motivational guru Napoleon Hill. Romney had his fellow missionaries read it and told them to apply the lessons to their mission work.

    There’s 30 minutes’ worth of Napoleon Hill babbling his claptrap on YouTube, and it’s well worth a look. Hill, enunciating in that classic “born before recorded sound was a thing” way, promises viewers a “master key” to anything their heart desires. Anything at all, so long as it can be written down on a piece of paper. Hill will show you the master key, he explains, when you are ready to understand it. “The master key consists of 17 principles, the first of which is definiteness of purpose,” and so on. (Hill never actually reveals his foolproof formula for personal success, because he prefers that the reader discover it for him- or herself.)

    https://www.salon.com/2012/07/16/mitt_romneys_self_help_gurus/

    Scott Adams is a hardcore materialist. He believes 100% in affirmations and says it’s the only reason he was able to become a world famous cartoonist, super rich, and date hot women. His current girlfriend has a master’s degree in financial economics and owns her own successful LA business.

    https://twitter.com/kristina_basham

  71. anonymous[500] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Bret Weinstein had tenure. Still got PNG’d by the campus and had to leave his job.

  72. @J.Ross

    Oh hell yeah they would!

    if they could added to my sentiment would be more accurate. Their efforts would be indirect and mostly consist of “talking down the economy”.Weren’t the Repubs accused of this during Obama’s administration?

    I’m still sometimes astonished at the lengths to which progressives and their more leftist compadres go to grab political power. Creative, ruthless, relentless. They never seem to take a day off.

    Yes, presidents receive too much credit or blame for the economic fortunes of the country. As you state, presidents can’t do a lot directly. Take the issuance of rules and regulations that impact businesses. Obama’s administration, I believe, set records imposing more than any other administration. Trump has probably repealed and rescinded a record number, thereby sending signals, as you put it.

    Maybe Professor Shiller felt the need to speak down to his audience. Way down. I think the way you presented the topic hit the sweet spot between too simplistic and too intricate .

  73. George says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Maybe markings should be put around German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish. Shiller might become ++Shiller++.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  74. @HammerJack

    It’s cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful.

    It’s definitely wasteful. I always hate seeing gas being flared off.

    Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.

    Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure–autos and stations–to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.

  75. peterike says:

    Isn’t this the simple answer?

    President Donald Trump’s “Buy American, Hire American” economy — with the tightest labor market in decades — has grown the wages of blue-collar workers more than any other income group, analysis finds.

    Though overall wage growth has seemed to slow down in recent months, hidden in the data is the surge in wages for America’s blue-collar and working-class who are gaining more in pay than all other income groups.

    Economic analysis by Indeed finds that while the highest wage earners have seen year-to-year wage growth of more than 2.5 percent, the lowest income wage earners have enjoyed almost double that growth.

    Also, speaking of the economy….

    Uber Technologies Inc. is laying off 400 American employees at its California offices while seeking to import hundreds of foreign workers through the H-1B visa program.

    Same old, same old.

  76. @SimpleSong

    I believe Jimmah Carter’s folks called it the “misery index”. They might have been on to something, but they sure didn’t fix it with the Knoxville Worlds Fair.

  77. @AnotherDad

    Methanol is engine ruining shit that cost costs more in energy inputs to produce than it yields in BTUs. You must be from Iowa.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  78. @MEH 0910

    “Pierre Delecto” is almost up there with “Carlos Danger” as a Twitter handle.

  79. @SFG

    The unemployment rate is as useless as the GDP. The real useful figure is the labor force participation rate. (adjusted for lay-a-bouts, malingers, wage thieves by nature etc.)

  80. This reminds me of why I gave up on having macroeconomic opinions.

    Robert Shiller is a baby boomer stooge whore for the hostile JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire.

    The Federal Reserve Bank and monetary extremism from the Fed is the cause and reason for the subsequent continuation of the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate.

    Shiller is a high IQ baby boomer moron stooge boy who knows damn well that the Federal Reserve Bank is the reason that the asset bubbles in real estate — commercial/residential — and stocks and bonds has been kept inflated.

    Shiller is a shyster who hides the fact that central banker shysters are using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as wage-reducing agents to suppress the wage inflation that would ordinarily occur during bouts of monetary extremism.

    This filthy propaganda stooge Shiller is full of shit about some vague and hazy Trumpian consumer animal spirits that are magically levitating the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate!

    This state university peasant bastard writer says that MIT sonofabitch Shiller can go straight to Hell!

    Attention Shiller: What would the GDP be without a trillion dollar yearly deficit or a 23 trillion dollar federal government debt?

    Attention Shiller: What would be the GDP and how would the asset bubbles fare if the federal funds rate were at the normal level of 6 percent?

    Attention Shiller: If the economy is booming like a bastard, why is it necessary to cut the federal funds rate and pour in more liquidity to the money supply?

    I hereby challenge this MIT bigshot Shiller to a debate on monetary extremism and the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate.

    This will be a 4 hour debate with mandatory beer consumption during the debate.

    More Beer! More Debate! More Free Speech!

  81. @SimpleSong

    Terrific comment–all your points–SimpleSong.

    This …

    Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.

    is solid gold. A little snippet that is demonstrative of so much of the “GDP growth” that has happened during my life.

  82. @MEH 0910

    His twitter handle should actually be In Flagrante Delicto; this would have been more truthful, as he is always busy committing evils. It also has the implication, in relation to the “impeachment inquiry”, that he is busy cuckolding the will of the American electorate. Mitt Romney, at your cervix, Madam Liberty (H/T Firesign Theater).

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
  83. RIGGED HORSESHIT MONETARY EXTREMISM INTERVENTIONISM!

    Andrew Jackson was right:

    It’s the frigging central bank causing the asset bubbles, you boneheads!

  84. I, too, have stopped even thinking about macroeconomics. Throughout my life I have repeatedly been persuaded by the hard-money, balanced-budget, what-goes-up-must-come-down arguments of analysts who believe there’s no such thing as a free lunch. And so I’ve missed out on several of the biggest bull markets in history. Even now, J.H. Kunstler strikes me as the most reasonable commentator on the world’s financial situation. But the market, of course, has a mind of its own.

  85. Anonymous[416] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Americans won’t believe it, but there have been smart people with German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish.

    Fritz Mondale was law review at Minnesota. 👊🏻

  86. ic1000 says:
    @Anon

    The spelling of the Laureate’s surname in the URL (Schiller) is a reminder that, like the rest of us, Mr. Sailer (Seiler) is fallible.

  87. Mike1 says:
    @ziel

    It’s actually simple: when debt is increasing, the economy swings up.

    How the economy works is deliberately hidden for fairly similar reasons to the examples you gave: keep people misinformed so you can control how things work. It’s fascinating, as a financial insider, to watch public speeches and how people lie while using words people think they know the meaning of. A great example is “growth”. Internally, this means loan book growth but the public only hears economic growth. The two overlap strongly so it usually doesn’t sound weird but sometimes there is obvious contradiction.

    Bottom line, the minute debt growth stalls or contracts, economic growth will magically stall or contract.

  88. @Dtbb

    Will the Dems sabotage the economy to win the presidency?

    I’m sure they will if they can. I suspect that there are small nudges that could tip it over into a recession, that there are individuals in a position to provide those nudges, and that at least some of those individuals are Never-Trumpers. They won’t be able to prevent a recovery, which will happen naturally over time, so their best strategy is to wait until fairly close to the election–say, late spring to early summer next year.

  89. @ThreeCranes

    animal spirits

    Three Cranes

    Trump=Animal Spirits?

    and Anon[292]

    have i think hit it. Not too many people are copying Trump’s ridiculous gold plated nonsense. But Trump is a “let’s do this!” kind of guy who encourages people’s animal spirits to keep flowing.

    This in contrast the Democrats policy of telling everyone to stop doing anything and wait for approval from mommy. (Why my parents had to live through the 1937-38 recession within the Depression.)

    As far as i can see the overall recovery has been cheap money–quantitative easing–more or less recapitulation the same housing bubble nonsense as the previous decade, with the only–but huge–real productive factor being the fracking revolution driving down energy costs giving everyone a decent bonus.

    This might be running out of steam now, but Trump’s positive attitude encourages people to keep it going. (Unfortunately he hasn’t delivered on the one critical factor to improving American’s lives–an end to the immigration insanity.)

  90. @Steve Sailer

    Americans won’t believe it, but there have been smart people with German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish.

    Reminds me of a girl I met at a party back in my college days. Her last name was Berg, but when she introduced herself it came out as “BergI’mnotJewish.” (She was Scandinavian, IIRC.)

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
  91. Dan Hayes says:
    @J.Ross

    J.Ross,

    I wholeheartedly and unabashedly concur with your judgement. Thanks.

  92. @Steve Sailer

    The story is that we were named Seiler until an ancestor became mayor of the small Swiss town of Wil, at which point he thought it more fitting for the family dignity to adopt the less blue collar spelling of Sailer, much like a Smith becoming a Smythe.

    The Sailers of Elmwood, Wisconsin are important regional butchers, distributing their product in stores for many counties around. A name that means “rope-maker” might not be the best in this business.

    Especially in a town noted for its UFO visits.

  93. @anon

    Here we recall Michael Eisner, running Disney from the “left,” no doubt cheering the 1992 election of Bill Clinton. That having been said, he made sure to exercise his stock options BEFORE 1993, when Clinton took power and raised tax rates:

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-12-02-mn-1293-story.html

    If Warren wins in 2000 and the Dems take the Senate, expect something similar from Big Money Dems in tech and on Wall Street.

  94. @ziel

    So understanding the economy I think is like that – only no one knows the secret.

    Many know the secret. The problem is many more can’t be bothered; or like liberals and HBD statistics, they are too uncomfortable with the conclusions (because they show how totally and completely fooled they were by those who profited by deceiving them).

    Read:

    Economics in One Lesson https://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson
    The Creature from Jekyll Island https://blog.12min.com/the-creature-from-jekyll-island-pdf/
    Man, Economy and State https://mises.org/library/man-economy-and-state-power-and-market
    Democracy, the God that Failed https://mises.org/library/democracy-god-failed-1
    The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion https://archive.org/details/TheProtocolsOfTheLearnedEldersOfZion

    To understand economics and its related problems.

    Then study:

    A Direct Republic: The Null Hypothesis of Politics https://www.thenullhypothesisofpolitics.com/
    The Constitution of the First Distributed Republic https://strangerousthoughts.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/the-constitution-of-the-first-distributed-republic/
    How to Make a Mint https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
    Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper

    For the solutions.

  95. Robert Shiller is full of shit, and I don’t care if he’s a Jew or a Kraut or a Baltic bastard of some sort or a mongrel bastard, and he’s an MIT fancy pants pissant ECONOMIST!

    Lawyers and Economists and Politicians are the scum of the earth!

    My favorite all-time economist had the decency to croak down dead of a heart attack in the middle of one of his crappy lectures. It happened at the state university close by Aaron Burr’s gravesite at Princeton. That Bert Lahr wannabe with the Princeton “P” tatooed on his fat geezer globalizer money-grubber ass — GEORGE SHULTZ — is the type of THERANOS board member scumbag who goes to Princeton. That ridiculous Elizabeth Holmes dirtbag fraud really impressed your Princeton ass, ain’t that so Shultzy!

    Princeton is only slightly less rancid than that vile shithole called Harvard!

    Long before the treasonous filth baby boomers were even born, there was scum like George Shultz plotting to attack and destroy the USA using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as demographic weapons. The JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire has been rotten and treasonous for a century or more; many people say since that warmonger ape Abe Lincoln attacked the Southern states by refusing to vacate a Northern states-controlled island military installation.

    Shultz ain’t got that “C” like he should, just like Shiller!

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Anonymous
  96. I wrote this about Robert Shiller in May of 2017:

    Economist Robert J. Shiller is a shyster. Shiller is an economist. Shiller is unscrupulous. Shiller is an academic. Shiller pushes globalization and mass immigration. What more do you need to know?

    Shiller and his ilk will defend this rotting globalized economic and political system until they expire and go to hell. My favorite economist croaked while in the middle of a lecture. He dropped dead of a heart attack. True story. Economists are evil beyond redemption.

  97. Why Don’t Economists Yet Understand the Housing Bubble/Bust?

    Steve Sailer wrote this in 2017 about economists and Robert Shiller and the real estate asset bubble implosion of 2007 to 2009:

    I don’t doubt that shows on TV about flipping houses played a role. But isn’t it striking that after almost a decade: “There is still no consensus on why the last housing boom and bust happened”? It was the biggest news story since 9/11, and yet Dr. Shiller himself, perhaps the leading housing economist, is still pretty hazy on how it happened.

    I would suggest that one reason economists are still so baffled by what happened is because one obvious partial contributor to the fiasco — immigration / diversity — is a Sacred Cow. So without grappling with things like the Bush Administration’s Ownership Society and anti-downpayment, anti-documentation Increasing Minority Homeownership initiatives, you can’t get close to the full story.

    But it’s safer, careerwise, to remain puzzled, so they do.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-dont-economists-yet-understand-the-housing-bubblebust/#comment-1880729

  98. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/upshot/how-tales-of-flippers-led-to-a-housing-bubble.html?mabReward=CTM&recp=7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&region=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-dont-economists-yet-understand-the-housing-bubblebust/#comment-1880729

    I wrote this in May of 2017 about Robert Shiller and central banking and immigration and asset bubbles:

    The monetary extremism of the globalized central banks caused the real estate bubble. The real estate bubble popped in 2007-2oo9. The monetary extremism of the globalized central banks has re-inflated the real estate bubble. The current real estate bubble is in the process of popping at this very moment.

    Mass immigration and monetary extremism are the two big issues of our time. The battle is being fought under the banners of patriotism vs globalization. Demography and debt just means mass immigration and financialization. Shysters like Robert Shiller are vile slobs who will never admit that their project to globalize the United States has led to unpayable government debt and unpayable private debt and unsustainable levels of multicultural mayhem.

    The upcoming global financial implosion will stop mass immigration cold. The only thing holding the globalized financial system together is monetary extremism. That is why the globalized central banks must continuously inflate asset bubbles. Central banking is the key to understanding globalization, financialization, mass immigration and asset bubbles.

  99. “Go’s to show the the major difference between the real economy and the stock market.”

    I think that WS is valuable asset. But they are not the only mechanism to guage the economy.

    I agree with anyone who suggests that GDP really needs an overhaul.

  100. anon[179] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    Stop holding back, Charles, and tell us how you really feel.

    • Replies: @anon
  101. Kronos says:
    @anonymous

    Well back in 2012, it would’ve been preferable to the late Obama collapse. The SJW types got even nuttier between 2013-2016. Keep in mind there isn’t any real economic/foreign policy difference between Romney and Obama. Both support open boarders, neoliberal economics, and would’ve become further involved in the Middle East. But a Romney presidency would’ve partially sucked the oxygen out of the BLM/SJW/Cultural Marxist people. (Then again, his dad did a horrible job handling black riots/crime in Detroit while Governor.)

    Keep in mind if the GOP had supported boarder security in the 1980s-1990s, the racial demographics would’ve allowed Obama’s defeat by ten points. (Maybe he wouldn’t have been elected at all.) The boomers wanted cheap labor so to transfer the money toward dividends. But with the demise of the Boomers in the next 15 years, the platforms of Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader will become solidly mainstream. You won’t have the middle-upper class white feminist/beta male grand alliance that’s controlled (and destroyed) everything in the last forty years since the 1968 “Boomer Ascension.”

    *One thing I’m currently focusing my reading list on is Feminism. (AKA cancer research.) It seems that after every war they gained substantial political concessions. I’m starting with articles and stuff and eventually Phyllis Chesler’s “A Politically Incorrect Feminist: Creating a Movement with Bitches, Lunatics, Dykes, Prodigies, Warriors, and Wonder Women.”

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/roots-of-2nd-wave-feminism/?highlight=Feminism

    (Here’s a brief concentration of the research.)

    World War I: The right to Vote.

    World War II: A whole lot of government programs and jobs that benefited women. (Like Unions during the war years, they won concessions by supporting the war and not causing trouble. There were some very large anti-war protests (think Charles Lindbergh) before the Pearl Harbor attacks.

    Vietnam War: Became a mainstream political faction in US politics. Because women weren’t eligible for the draft, they never received the political flack for fighting in Vietnam or draft dodging. While men were either fighting in Vietnam or skiing in Europe to avoid the draft, boomer women were able to consolidate political power. Keep in mind, feminism is fundamentally a middle-upper class movement. While rich brother Chad was a ski bum/fugitive for going AWOL, sister Alice could learn about the family real estate empire or join a corporate entity. Also, military men can’t vote, so if millions of men can’t vote, that an advantage to females.(Especially boomer women, the biggest generation in US history.) They could convince their FDR hating parents that allowing women into the workforce could help rollback New Deal economic legislation and weaken Unions from the inside.

    So far, I haven’t been brainwashed into this guy yet.

  102. Anonymous[349] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    State University= Rutgers?

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    , @anonymous
  103. Dan Hayes says:
    @Rex Little

    Rex Little:

    Another example of proffering differentiation –

    The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).

    • Replies: @prosa123
  104. @Kronos

    Interesting post, but one quibble. People in the military can vote.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  105. How much of this is due to over borrowing by this and previous administrations?

  106. @Kronos

    World War I: The right to Vote.

    Women got the vote in Wyoming and Utah shortly after the Civil War. Those were territories, though, and a Republican Congress rescinded it in Utah about 15 years later. For some reason, GOP-bashers never bring that up today. Possibly due some other practice of Utah’s premature suffragists.

    Especially boomer women…

    boarder security…

    I can see why you resent them. They failed in teaching the young to spell.

    …in the next 15 years, the platforms of Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader will become solidly mainstream.

    In 15 years, Nader will be a centenarian, with Buchanan close behind. Their presidential campaigns will make Bernie Sanders look like a Boy Wonder.

    their FDR hating parents…

    New Deal economic legislation…

    There were some very large anti-war protests (think Charles Lindbergh)

    How is hating FDR any different from hating Hitler or Stalin, the latter a hero of the President’s? Besides, most of their parents voted for him.

    The only New Deal legislation that worked (in any sense other than the political) was our entry into the Second World War. Against which, by the way, Jeannette Rankin cast a very lonely vote. “As a woman I can’t go to war,” she said, “and I refuse to send anyone else.”

    In 1917, with another vote against entering another world war, she said, “I wish to stand for my country, but I cannot vote for war.” In her interregnum between Congresses, she defended this with “I felt the first time the first woman had a chance to say no to war, she should say it.”

    Now that’s my kind of suffragist!

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @Kronos
    , @Kronos
  107. Art Deco says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    The only New Deal legislation that worked (in any sense other than the political) was our entry into the Second World War.

    The Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the bank holiday, the devaluation of the currency, the creation of HOLC, and Glass-Steagall were all tonic, as were the public employment programs. The Social Security Act was also successful toward certain ends (manifest later).

    • Replies: @Kronos
  108. DRA says:
    @AnotherDad

    By the time the fracking gas runs out, perhaps methane hydrate from the continental slops will be available safely.

    By then we will probably be back to pleistocene conditions. (see recent Science News for conditions)

  109. @Anonymous

    State University= Rutgers?

    About 20 miles up from Princeton on 27 is RU.

    Less than 30 miles north of Princeton is Trump’s golf course.

  110. Kronos says:

    Not quite, even as late as WW2 the absentee ballet was relatively new and underutilized. I recall a “Willie and Joe” comic making fun of the process. (I couldn’t find the exact one but this might do.)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/11/ensuring-soldiers-a-chance-to-vote-was-a-challenge-in-the-civil-war-it-still-is-today/

    In World War II, the next time the country was at war during a presidential election, attitudes changed much as they had during the Civil War. Both parties assumed that the newly conscripted military would vote for the commander-in-chief, Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt. This time, it was Democrats who pressed for soldier voting laws while Republicans resisted.
    In World War II, for the first time, Congress got involved directly with the soldier vote, passing laws that encouraged states to permit service personnel to request ballots and to vote while stationed overseas. States were asked to change their election laws and most did so. However, Southern states resisted the legislation on states’ rights grounds and managed to water down the law, making it less effective than originally planned.

    But the challenges were greater during World War II than during the Civil War. The military was deployed on multiple continents. With vast numbers of citizens pressed into military service, family members who wanted their soldiers and sailors to vote pressured elected officials to get over their resistance and enable absentee voting. Unlike during the Civil War, no attempt was made to conduct elections in the field as proxy voting became the preferred method simply because it was easier to administer. Despite the difficulties, some 2.6 million service personnel were able to vote during the 1944 presidential election, which was about 6 percent of the total number of votes cast that year.

    Also, there are still major restrictions on supporting a political candidate while on active duty. (Keep in mind in the comic, both Eisenhower and MacArthur were still in the military. Neither were running for political office.)

    https://www.thebalancecareers.com/military-folks-and-politics-3332818

  111. Neoconned says:
    @unit472

    Thats not totally true. Gas from the mid 1980s when the Saudis tanked oil prices to bankrupt the Soviets who financed their empire with high oil prices…..until 2005 were in a 50 cents to UNDER $2.00 price range. There were hurricanes in the Gulf that shut down oil output in both the 80s & 90s but gas prices never shot up….

    It wasnt until Dubya invaded Iraq and destabilized global oil markets that prices moved ABOVE the psychological barrier of 2 bucks a gallon. “Psychological threshold” is a very important concept…..and during Gulf War 1 and into the 90s economic boom the oil speculator parasites never dared jack oil prices above 2 bucks a gallon. As old rednecks back home put it “2 bucks a gallon is too much.

    Prices only dipped twice since the Bush-induced market blow up….once in 2008/9 when demand destruction occurred during the bowels of the 09 W. Bush downturn recession.

    And then again in 2014 when frackers flooded the market with so much oil prices dipped below $2 a gallon again…

  112. Kronos says:
    @Art Deco

    I thought the biggest one was infrastructure spending. It essentially brought the South into the 20th century. (Before, northern banks constantly blackballed them via denying credit and financial investment.) Even modern LA was built on New Deal infrastructure spending.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  113. Art Deco says:
    @Kronos

    The South was less affluent than the north in 1929 to the tune of about 40% in terms personal income per capita in real terms (i.e roughly 40 years behind) It didn’t lack for public works departments or banks.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  114. Neoconned says:
    @anon

    …..and we & our civilization are as well. Keynes was right about that.

  115. Neoconned says:
    @Anonymous

    Japanese Prime Min. Shinzo Abe stripped the Bank of Japan(their version of the Federal Reserve) of its independence in 2015 I think it was with a vote held by his party in the Japanese parliament. This basically lets the executive branch control monetary policy.

    In theory Trump could do the same and make monetary policy a political tool of whatever party is in power. Sad thing is if he tried to do it hed be Oswalded by the bankers.

    • Replies: @Bill
  116. Kronos says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    I can see why you resent them. They failed in teaching the young to spell.

    Damn, and I promised commenter “Res” I’d work on it. Technically, the words aren’t spelled incorrectly. They’re just slightly different words that miss the full optimization of the sentence. But yes, I’m part of that generation addicted to spellchecker and missed the boat on cursive writing. (The joke being cursive taught you how to write Elven.)

    Maybe I can help create a program to help my fellow Millennials?

  117. Kronos says:
    @Art Deco

    But it largely benefited from New Deal funding right?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  118. Anonymous[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jim bob Lassiter

    You mean ethanol from corn, not methanol from natural gas. It requires fuel systems made for it. But burns clean and runs cool.

    • Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
  119. Kronos says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    In 15 years, Nader will be a centenarian, with Buchanan close behind. Their presidential campaigns will make Bernie Sanders look like a Boy Wonder.

    The platforms and ideas not necessarily the people.

    Also, I just started “A Politically Incorrect Feminist” by Phyllis Chesler. (Maybe I can become the Alt-Right’s Feminist expert correspondent?)

    Already, the schisms between the various feminist movements seem severe. Lots of differences and objectives (who would’ve thought women would act as such?) Chesler kind of seems like a Trotskyite that got purged by the successful Stalinists.

    You have Feinstein, who’s one of the biggest hawks in DC who runs on the feminist platform.

  120. It seems to me like macroeconomics is like trying to predict the course of biological evolution. Things may be guided by certain principles but chaos and random chance is inherently part of the mix. Like, if you were an alien who understood natural selection and were observing Earth at the end of the Cretaceous and you saw the asteroid coming, would you be able to predict the evolution of humans in 65 million years? Probably not. You probably couldn’t even predict that all the non-avian dinosaurs would go extinct (after all, they survived numerous mass extinctions before in the Triassic and Jurassic). The only thing you’d be able to say is that a lot of things are gonna end up dying. Seems like economists are like that. They can say one event may have an effect but never are consistent enough to accurately say when the shit is gonna hit the fan.

  121. prosa123 says:
    @Dan Hayes

    Another example of proffering differentiation –
    The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).

    There’s also the authentic German pronunciation, which is very difficult for non-native German speakers.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  122. Not Raul says:
    @prosa123

    Is the authentic pronunciation like “Coke”?

    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  123. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure–autos and stations–to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.

    It may be almost as expensive to make gas stations methanolworthy as to put in CNG compressors. Most gas stations already have natural gas for internal heating hooked up, they just need the compressor.

  124. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Interestingly, Rutgers is one of those state universities that has no “lay prestige” for undergraduate pedigree on dating profiles but has some absolutely elite departments.

    It is literally number one* in my high IQ field (yes, over Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Stanford, Oxford, Cambridge, etc.).

    In California UCSD and UCSB have some super elite departments in high IQ fields but nobody really cares about them as undergraduate degrees.

    *To bring this back to Mr. Sailer, I believe one of the reasons it became a stellar department is that Jerry Fodor was a huge opera fan so he decided he’d rather be at Rutgers than MIT/Harvard (he’d spent most of his career in Cambridge, MA)

    • Replies: @anon
  125. @Anonymous

    YOur social engineering is very detailed. Why should you run other peoples lives?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  126. @Redneck farmer

    The McJobs churn is an essential component of a stagflationary recession. Everybody is hiring, but nobody is paying.

    When employers cannot afford to page a wage that entices people away from welfare, the student loan party life, or mom’s basement, that is a recession, only of another kind.

  127. Muse says:
    @PiltdownMan

    The Case-Schiller index is kind of a big deal too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case–Shiller_index

    • Replies: @Bill
  128. @Kronos

    The South… didn’t lack for public works departments or banks.

    But it largely benefited from New Deal funding right?

    Well, duh… compare the vote totals in Mississippi and South Carolina to those in Maine and Vermont, or to those in the Hudson Valley for that matter, where they knew their native son the best.

    Still, according to Frank Bryan in Real Vermonters Don’t Milk Goats, FDR was willing to build a parkway to Montreal via the peaks of the Green Mountains, but it was shot down in town meeting.

  129. Kronos says:
    @William Badwhite

    I failed to link the comment below. But yes, your more correct on that point than myself. Turns out the average age for Vietnam soldiers was 18 while in WW2 it was 23. Until during the early 1970s, the voting age was 21. Thus the common critique that you can die for your country but neither drink or vote.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
  130. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Redneck farmer

    The energy balance for grain ethanol has been solidly positive for over a decade.

    The issue here is exergy, which roughly means “the energy it takes to get the energy”. Corn derived ethanol is a poor exergy fuel, that is to say, it’s like a business with a billion dollars of capital invested that shows a profit of a hundred thousand dollars. It makes money but it doesn’t make enough money to make the capital investment worth it.

    Corn production is heavily subsidized on several levels so accounting for its true cost is difficult, but it is extremely capital and chemical intensive.

    Natural gas for vehicles is simple. You just need to take out the sulfur and the nonmethane gases that are valuable, like the noble gases, compress it and you are good to go. If you don’t need to recover the noble gases simply desulfurizing it makes for good motor fuel. A natural gas compressor can run on its own gas, making small scale compressor-to-tank stations fairly cost effective.

    The expense is the compressor station and the tank that has to be fitted in the car. These are high pressure tanks and are not cheap, but their cost and service life are becoming more favorable with volume.

    Sadly, we are going backward and not forward on CNG vehicles. Honda and Ford both had turnkey cars available in the last few years but not in the current one due to poor demand.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  131. @Anonymous

    I stand corrected. Thanks 113 and my apologies dad.

  132. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @scrivener3

    To me “social engineering” means fooling with people’s religious, sex or family life, not whether their car runs on methane or gasoline. It’s not an ethical, moral, or social issue per se.

    Do you oppose the already onerous and colossal amount of motor vehicle and fuel regulations already in force?

  133. @Anonymous

    There are some serious safety concerns with CNG, which poses both decompression and explosion risks. When a tank of compressed natural gas ruptures, you get this:

    250 million more of these potential rolling bombs on the road may be a bridge too far (pun intended). By the way, this video also answers the claims of the “laws of physics” branch of 9/11 Douchers who claim that burning petroleum products cannot cause steel structures to collapse.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  134. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Yes, but gasoline also presents severe fire risks, however we are used to it. If natgas or propane or diesel or alcohols were the established fuels and the newfangled gasoline were introduced it would be banned for being a liquid fire hazard. Natural gas can cause horrendous explosions but often natgas leaks dissipate without incident. Propane is sort of the worst of both worlds-it’s a gas, but a heavy one that lies low and tends to stick around until sooner or later it finds an ignition point. Methane often disperses until it is too lean to ignite.

    It also takes a lot to rupture a CNG tank, whereas many cars use flimsy sheet metal or even plastic gasoline tanks. I bought an old Chevy truck and owned it for two years before discovering it had an aftermarket rotamolded plastic gas tank. I used to smoke cigars and hesitate to think what might have happened had I dropped a lit one and it rolled under the seat and the hot end hit the plastic tank. I sold the truck, as I was planning to anyway, and did tell the new owner about the aftermarket plastic gas tank. He was planning to make it into a “street truck” anyway and put in a tank under the bed so the underseat area could accomodate the subwoofer “kicker”.

  135. anon[211] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    Robert Shiller definitely is and identifies as a Lithuanian-American as the linked article details (e.g. the name of his grandfather’s store in Detroit, and also his mother’s first name is that of a wife of one Grand Duke of Lithuania and mother of another in the 14th century, and a uniquely Lithuanian name). I doubt that a Litvak (a Lithuanian Jew) would use it to name his store or his daughter, especially in the U.S. in early 20th century. Her maiden name is that of a queen of Poland by marriage and Grand Duchess of Lithuania in the 16th century.

    That said, his grandmother (or her sister) does not look Lithuanian, but rather vaguely Asiatic. Might be of a Lithuanian Tatar origin, like Charles Bronson. Some Tatars settled there in the 14th century around the old capital city.

    Also, Lithuanian-Americans tend to vote Republican, so it’s not that surprising Shiller would support Trump, even if tacitly. Especially having grown up in Detroit in the 1960s.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
  136. Lagertha says:

    in their dreams. The people who control everything will never allow another depression, But, they are not against killing lots of people, now. They , the bad guys, actually want to kill a lot of Americans when it is more convenient.

  137. anon[211] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    Wait till he gets elected President. Then it will be ALL CAPS ALL THE TIME!
    Trump will look demure by comparison.

  138. anon[121] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous

    I know other former MIT or Harvard or outer Ivy League profs who took positions in/around NYC because they wanted to be able to go to the Met/Broadway shows on any night they felt like it. NYU for one has significantly built up certain departments in the last decade for that reason, and also in some cases because of the NYC gay scene. Of course, you have to be a “star” to be able to choose your institution like that, but most full or even more junior Harvard/MIT profs are “stars”.
    Steve’s bud Pinker would have no trouble landing a job at any NYC/NJ university tomorrow, should he wish to do so.

  139. anon[121] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    There is a bunch of folks in Lithuania named Šileris (Lith version of Schiller/Shiller) that come up in a search as public officials, business people etc.. Not a common surname there, but not unheard of.

  140. @Kronos

    But yes, your more correct on that point than myself. Turns out the average age for Vietnam soldiers was 18 while in WW2 it was 23. Until during the early 1970s, the voting age was 21. Thus the common critique that you can die for your country but neither drink or vote.

    That comment calls for this video, which I hope Mr. Sailer will indulge.

  141. @anon

    Jackie Kennedy’s sister, Lee Radziwill, was married to a Polish-Lithuanian prince, Stanislaw Radziwill.

    It is possible that Robert Shiller is related, through his mother’s side. People running that ethnic website would know.

  142. @anon

    Yes, NYU went from joke to a very serious school in my lifetime because of its location. It’s a place that can attract donations and professors and students. USC to a lesser extent is the LA version of that, I guess.

    Even CUNY, which most people think is just a community college, has elite departments in certain fields.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @PiltdownMan
  143. anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    And if you’re a star, you don’t really care if Rutgers sounds good.

    Jerry Fodor IS the prestige (or was when he was younger and moved to Rutgers). Nobody in philosophy wondered if he was good because he was at Rutgers; everyone already knew who he was.

    A British philosopher who went to Rutgers after Fodor remarked he was tired of all the second-rate professors at Oxbridge who just told each other how smart they were because they were at cool old buildings in Oxbridge. He said it was completely intellectually moribund partly for that reason. I think he might have said an older famous British philosopher told him the same thing.

    I’m not endorsing his specific opinion on any particular department at Oxbridge at any exact time but he was a big deal philosopher who did feel that way.

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
  144. @anonymous2space

    NYU has an attractive macro location for a college (New York City) and an attractive micro location (Greenwich Village). USC has the macro location but not the micro location. (It’s not as bad as it once was, but still.)

  145. @anonymous2space

    City College, which is the flagship college in the CUNY system, has always gotten respect in New York City circles for over a century. It recruited the philosopher Bertrand Russell in the late 1940s, but notoriously, backed off under pressure from the Catholic Church and a lawsuit from a parent who was worried about his views on marriage and free love.

    To quote CUNY’s web page

    The university enrolls more than 275,000 students, and counts thirteen Nobel Prize winners and twenty-four MacArthur Fellows among its alumni.

    Not bad, at all, for a municipally funded college system. But you would expect that in hindsight, given the concentration of talent in New York City, which has a population exceeding that of some of the smaller Northern European countries.

  146. I know a Schneider (tailor) family in Switzerland that changed their name to the Latin equivalent (Sartorius) when the family fortunes improved. You should be able to trace your Swiss origins, Steve. At a talk in Basel, the inventor of PCR, Kary Mullis, mentioned that when he received the Nobel, he was contacted by a representative of the Muhlis family. They had correctly traced him to a family member that migrated to the US in the 18th or 19th century.

  147. Bill says:
    @SimpleSong

    GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.

    But you’re not the first person to notice this (or even the thousandth). GDP is a wonderful, wonderful metric if you get your living by taking vig off of market transactions, as, for example, Wall St does or Washington does. Every time some production moves from the home to the market, businesses have to expand, capital must be raised, and tax revenue increases. Similarly with immigration.

  148. Bill says:
    @Neoconned

    In theory Trump could do the same and make monetary policy a political tool of whatever party is in power. Sad thing is if he tried to do it hed be Oswalded by the bankers.

    Monetary policy (and fiscal policy for that matter) are already political tools of whatever party is in power. This even has a name, “the political business cycle,” which you can google and which Britannica (which still exists!?) even has an article on. Here is a paper with a very readable abstract: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5154585_Does_the_Fed_Contribute_to_a_Political_Business_Cycle

    It’s interesting that Trump uses such crude, public methods to get Powell to dance to his tune, but the Fed dancing to the POTUS’s tune is not new.

  149. Bill says:
    @Muse

    No, the Case-Shiller Index is not a big deal at all. It gets the names Case and Shiller in the news a lot, but that’s it.

  150. @anonymous

    A British philosopher who went to Rutgers after Fodor remarked he was tired of all the second-rate professors at Oxbridge who just told each other how smart they were because they were at cool old buildings in Oxbridge. He said it was completely intellectually moribund partly for that reason. I think he might have said an older famous British philosopher told him the same thing.

    I had a professor of English ancestry at RU who went to the London School of Economics and got his doctorate at Cornell University and he taught British Politics and other things at Rutgers. I had a Loon Mountain shirt on one day and he asked about it. I told him it’s a mountain in New England. He was a good professor.

    He seemed well mannered and his surname was Anglo-Norman.

  151. We got this brain-dead baby boomer Ann Coulter to come around on immigration, and we’ll get this Ann Coulter broad to understand central banker shysterism too!

    Without central banker shyster interventionism and monetary extremism, the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate will implode immediately. Got That Cornell Woman Ann Coulter!

    Attention Steve Sailer:

    Please moderate my unmoderated comment on Shiller on through the whim moderation machine — it is at #84.

    This Shiller guy and corrupt globalizer economists like him and the corporate propaganda outlets are why gals like Ann Coulter don’t know crud about central banker shysterism.

  152. J.Ross says:
    @George

    First of all, the Germans themselves had this (certain categories, or -man instead of -mann), and the Jews simply waited until it was legal for them to obscure their imposed names. Secondly this gets into the weeds on a non-problem with potential externalities. We want to be able to identify societal subverters, a group with enormous but incomplete overlap with Jews, so identifying, say, Dennis Prager’s Jewishness is an own goal, because he’s a societal … uh, upholder.

  153. Papa says:
    @newrouter

    I’m glad that point didn’t only stand out to me, but my take was a bit different; that these manic and deranged liberals simply have no ability to comprehend reality anymore, so they just say nonsensical things because it’s the only way they can interpret things in their mentally ill state.

    Please point to a single person at a trump rally the would indicate that they’re emulating some kind of Trump modeled luxury. Of course he’s a motivational speaker … that’s the job of a good President, and it drives them insane like mindless zombies that it’s the opposite of the dark lord obama.

    We are actually dealing with a kind of weaponized mental virus that is spread and infects people like some kind of real world zombie apocalypse that is eating its way through society. They simply cannot comprehend reality anymore as their minds turn to mush.

  154. MEH 0910 says:
    @JerseyJeffersonian

    The Further Adventures Of Nick Danger

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