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Q. Does the Ferguson Effect Exist? A. It Sure Does in Ferguson.
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At the blog People Who Did Not See Mike Brown Being Killed, Mike Sylwester reviews the much pooh-poohed Ferguson Effect of rising violence following BLM activism in, appropriately enough, Ferguson, Missouri:

Crime rates rose significantly in Ferguson during 2014-2015

Crime in the city of Ferguson, Missouri, has risen significantly since police officer Darren Wilson was falsely accused of murdering Michael Brown there in August 2014. Crime in Ferguson — population about 21,0000 — rose significantly more than in other US cities of similar size.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) provides the following statistics for crimes that were recorded in US cities with population in the range from 10,000 to 25,000.

… the rates changed little [in small cities nationally] during the three-year period 2013-2015.

… Ferguson fits into the above group of cities — populations 10,000 to 25,000. The FBI provides Ferguson’s statistics, from which I have calculated the rates. You will see in the below list that the rates rise significantly compared to the above list. …

Violent Crimes (per 100,000 residents in Ferguson, MO)

In 2013 … 478
In 2014 … 545
In 2015 … 902

Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters
In 2013 … 9
In 2014 … 10
In 2015 … 24

Rapes (revised definition)
In 2013 … 14
In 2014 … 10
In 2015 … 38

Robberies
In 2013 … 256
In 2014 … 242
In 2015 … 389

Aggravated Assaults
In 2013 … 199
In 2014 … 284
In 2015 … 451

Property Crimes
In 2013 … 5,333
In 2014 … 4,870
In 2015 … 4,772

Ferguson’s big riots with arson and looting Anti-Violence Protests with Diversity Fireworks and Undocumented Shopping occurred in August and November 2014, so the terrible rates of violent crime in Ferguson in 2015 weren’t due to rioting during that year but due to the Ferguson Effect.

 
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  1. Are the mureder rates also per 100,000? That’s roughly six a year in Ferguson. In east St. Louis they run 25-30 anually, a city comparable in size to Ferguson

    • Replies: @JerryC
    Being only 1/5 as murder-prone as ESL is not all that great. Not terrific, as Trump would say.
    , @PiltdownMan
    That would be a strong incentive for people to move from East St. Louis to Ferguson. Or is that something that doesn't happen thanks to lack of jobs etc?
  2. So did property crime really go down as murder/rape/assault doubled to tripled? Of course not. The people who report property crime have (1) moved out (2) lost their ability in insure their property and with it most incentive to file a police report (3) been replaced by “victim/criminals” who are victims of property crime but do not report it because they are also active criminals with open warrants.

    • Replies: @Noah172
    Violent crime increased across the country (as Trump pointed out in the debate) even as property crime continued to decline (modestly).

    The unpleasant reality is that we are seeing an increase in people who want to hurt others for motives less rational than material gain.
  3. @Kyle a
    Are the mureder rates also per 100,000? That's roughly six a year in Ferguson. In east St. Louis they run 25-30 anually, a city comparable in size to Ferguson

    Being only 1/5 as murder-prone as ESL is not all that great. Not terrific, as Trump would say.

  4. @Lot
    So did property crime really go down as murder/rape/assault doubled to tripled? Of course not. The people who report property crime have (1) moved out (2) lost their ability in insure their property and with it most incentive to file a police report (3) been replaced by "victim/criminals" who are victims of property crime but do not report it because they are also active criminals with open warrants.

    Violent crime increased across the country (as Trump pointed out in the debate) even as property crime continued to decline (modestly).

    The unpleasant reality is that we are seeing an increase in people who want to hurt others for motives less rational than material gain.

    • Replies: @Nico
    But they are being allowed and encouraged to do so by a perverse intelligentsia who will use their votes and stupidity to rocket themselves to perpetual power and stranglehold over us all.

    There is always an answer to "cui bono?"
  5. @Noah172
    Violent crime increased across the country (as Trump pointed out in the debate) even as property crime continued to decline (modestly).

    The unpleasant reality is that we are seeing an increase in people who want to hurt others for motives less rational than material gain.

    But they are being allowed and encouraged to do so by a perverse intelligentsia who will use their votes and stupidity to rocket themselves to perpetual power and stranglehold over us all.

    There is always an answer to “cui bono?”

  6. @Kyle a
    Are the mureder rates also per 100,000? That's roughly six a year in Ferguson. In east St. Louis they run 25-30 anually, a city comparable in size to Ferguson

    That would be a strong incentive for people to move from East St. Louis to Ferguson. Or is that something that doesn’t happen thanks to lack of jobs etc?

  7. Pinker mentioned the Ferguson Effect by name on Twitter.

  8. Forty-six shot, five dead in Chicago over the weekend, all but maybe one in Black neighborhoods. Homicides up forty-one percent compared to last year, shootings up forty-three percent.

    In these circumstances, authorities will have no choice but to come down hard on White people.

    • Agree: Connecticut Famer
  9. Off-topic,

    Home Secretary Amber Rudd has raised a bit of a ruckus:

    The Home Secretary’s brother has attacked the Government’s “denigration of foreign workers” after Amber Rudd announced a policy to force businesses to publish figures on the number of foreign staff they employ.

    Roland Rudd, the head of PR agency Finsbury who – like his sister – campaigned for Remain during the referendum, wrote in an article for the London Evening Standard that there could be no place for “vilifying foreigners in the new Britain”.

    On Tuesday, Amber Rudd told the Conservative Party conference that foreign workers should not be able to “take the jobs that British people should do”.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-brother-roland-attacks-speech-home-secretary-vilifying-foreigners-a7350066.html

    • Replies: @bomag

    ... there could be no place for “vilifying foreigners in the new Britain”.
     
    I wonder if that includes the French.

    Maybe all those Nazis hiding in South America will consider a new home... the current political leadership in Britain is certainly well read on that ideology.

  10. And the comparisons to Hitler came pretty quick:

    Amber Rudd’s Conservative Party Conference speech has been likened to passages from Adolf Hitler’s book Mein Kampf.

    In her speech, the Home Secretary said firms should declare the percentage of foreign workers they employ as part of a drive to employ more local people.

    The speech sparked fierce criticism and the Labour party said it would “fan the flames of xenophobia and hatred in our communities”.

    But LBC Radio host James O’Brien has gone somewhat further, likening Ms Rudd’s address to the rhetoric found within the pages of Hitler’s autobiographical treatise on political ideology Mein Kampf.

    Mr O’Brien read out a passage of Hitler’s book on his radio show, telling listeners he was reading out part of the home secretary’s speech.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-conservative-party-conerence-hitler-mein-kampf-james-obrien-a7347251.html

    • Replies: @Peripatetic commenter
    How very different she is from KRudd in Australia.
    , @anon
    ..the Labour party said it would "fan the flames of xenophobia and hatred in our communities."

    Of course it was the Labour party that created all those "communities" in the first place. Essentially they created xenophobia and racism where none had previously existed in what was a mono-racial white country.
  11. Outside of the Fergaza Strip (the apartment farms of southeast Ferguson), the rest of Ferguson is almost entirely 1950s construction sardine box single owner owner occupied middle aged suburbia, about evenly split between black and white. So, don’t be tempted to think that the entirety of the marginal increase in Ferguson’s own Ferguson Effect is only affecting the ratchet black undertow.

    Even if none of this would have ever happened, the demographic trajectory in Ferguson was unstoppable, if for no other reason alone, the fact that the public school district Ferguson is in is now 78% black, and you can easily guess the trend. Going back to Ferguson’s non-Fergaza sections, the white half are older people without children, and the black half is more demographically balanced in terms of age.

    • Replies: @Bill
    Yeah, I've watched a number of neighborhoods tip. It's interesting that there is always this hard core of old, white people whose attitude is basically "It's my house. It's my neighborhood. I'll die here." There was one neighborhood I visited sometimes where the old, white people walked, en bloc, several times a day through the burned-out shell of their neighborhood. As if to say "We're not dead yet. And, unlike you trash, we can easily and spontaneously organize a multiple-times-a-day demonstration of peaceable solidarity." But the people with children run. And, in the particular neighborhood I'm thinking about, all the old, white people are dead now.

    It's also interesting the way school busing went from being a premiere domestic issue in the 70s to being nothing. The evil elite seems to have grasped that actively endangering white parents' children was not going to be good for them. So they stopped. Really quite suddenly upon Reagan's election.
    , @ic1000
    I've found that, outside of the iSteve world, the number of people who understand anything about the Root Causes of Ferguson -- demographic replacement, Section 8, center-city gentrification and real-estate interests, declining safety and performance in public schools -- is essentially zero.

    The establishment media has done a heckuva job in painting a picture that omits these elementa and more. Americans shrug and accept it as true, more or less. Havel greengrocer style.
  12. Compare for us the crime rates in 1990 and before (the population was still about 22,000) when Ferguson was white.

  13. @syonredux
    Off-topic,

    Home Secretary Amber Rudd has raised a bit of a ruckus:

    The Home Secretary’s brother has attacked the Government’s “denigration of foreign workers” after Amber Rudd announced a policy to force businesses to publish figures on the number of foreign staff they employ.

    Roland Rudd, the head of PR agency Finsbury who – like his sister – campaigned for Remain during the referendum, wrote in an article for the London Evening Standard that there could be no place for “vilifying foreigners in the new Britain”.

    On Tuesday, Amber Rudd told the Conservative Party conference that foreign workers should not be able to “take the jobs that British people should do”.
     
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-brother-roland-attacks-speech-home-secretary-vilifying-foreigners-a7350066.html

    … there could be no place for “vilifying foreigners in the new Britain”.

    I wonder if that includes the French.

    Maybe all those Nazis hiding in South America will consider a new home… the current political leadership in Britain is certainly well read on that ideology.

    • Replies: @athEIst
    Maybe a new nursing home. Even the youngest Nazi is now 80+.
  14. public school district Ferguson.

    It’s the Ferguson Florissant school district. Florissant (population ~50,00) is still 70% white, but we know where that’s going.

    North St. Louis(city) has been black since ~1970, is now unlivable and emptying out into north St. Louis county.

  15. @syonredux
    And the comparisons to Hitler came pretty quick:

    Amber Rudd’s Conservative Party Conference speech has been likened to passages from Adolf Hitler’s book Mein Kampf.

    In her speech, the Home Secretary said firms should declare the percentage of foreign workers they employ as part of a drive to employ more local people.

    The speech sparked fierce criticism and the Labour party said it would “fan the flames of xenophobia and hatred in our communities”.
     

    But LBC Radio host James O’Brien has gone somewhat further, likening Ms Rudd’s address to the rhetoric found within the pages of Hitler’s autobiographical treatise on political ideology Mein Kampf.

    Mr O’Brien read out a passage of Hitler’s book on his radio show, telling listeners he was reading out part of the home secretary’s speech.
     
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-conservative-party-conerence-hitler-mein-kampf-james-obrien-a7347251.html

    How very different she is from KRudd in Australia.

  16. What is the revised definition of rape?

    Does anyone think there will be a Birth of a Nation effect?

    About Birth, I look forward to reading in this blog a list of its inaccuracies. I surely won’t spend money to see it, and from the bits and pieces I’ve read about it, it seems to be full of bullshittery.

  17. @countenance
    Outside of the Fergaza Strip (the apartment farms of southeast Ferguson), the rest of Ferguson is almost entirely 1950s construction sardine box single owner owner occupied middle aged suburbia, about evenly split between black and white. So, don't be tempted to think that the entirety of the marginal increase in Ferguson's own Ferguson Effect is only affecting the ratchet black undertow.

    Even if none of this would have ever happened, the demographic trajectory in Ferguson was unstoppable, if for no other reason alone, the fact that the public school district Ferguson is in is now 78% black, and you can easily guess the trend. Going back to Ferguson's non-Fergaza sections, the white half are older people without children, and the black half is more demographically balanced in terms of age.

    Yeah, I’ve watched a number of neighborhoods tip. It’s interesting that there is always this hard core of old, white people whose attitude is basically “It’s my house. It’s my neighborhood. I’ll die here.” There was one neighborhood I visited sometimes where the old, white people walked, en bloc, several times a day through the burned-out shell of their neighborhood. As if to say “We’re not dead yet. And, unlike you trash, we can easily and spontaneously organize a multiple-times-a-day demonstration of peaceable solidarity.” But the people with children run. And, in the particular neighborhood I’m thinking about, all the old, white people are dead now.

    It’s also interesting the way school busing went from being a premiere domestic issue in the 70s to being nothing. The evil elite seems to have grasped that actively endangering white parents’ children was not going to be good for them. So they stopped. Really quite suddenly upon Reagan’s election.

    • Replies: @WhatEvvs
    @Bill,

    You described my parents, except that in their neighborhood, as the place was about to tip black, it began to flood with immigrants. Now, this presented a whole nother set of problems, and basically turned the nabe into a dystopian Babel, but that's better than a black ghetto, nome sane?
    (This might explain the strange toleration for rampant immigration, till now, among regular white folks.)

    Still the process was tragic.
    , @Ivy
    It took a few decades for the effects of the disastrous social engineering experiments to be so obvious that they could no longer be ignored. Forced integration without regard to consequences, disruption of ethnic neighborhoods in a callous power play to retain a voting majority. A few generations hurt, to what end?
  18. @Bill
    Yeah, I've watched a number of neighborhoods tip. It's interesting that there is always this hard core of old, white people whose attitude is basically "It's my house. It's my neighborhood. I'll die here." There was one neighborhood I visited sometimes where the old, white people walked, en bloc, several times a day through the burned-out shell of their neighborhood. As if to say "We're not dead yet. And, unlike you trash, we can easily and spontaneously organize a multiple-times-a-day demonstration of peaceable solidarity." But the people with children run. And, in the particular neighborhood I'm thinking about, all the old, white people are dead now.

    It's also interesting the way school busing went from being a premiere domestic issue in the 70s to being nothing. The evil elite seems to have grasped that actively endangering white parents' children was not going to be good for them. So they stopped. Really quite suddenly upon Reagan's election.

    ,

    You described my parents, except that in their neighborhood, as the place was about to tip black, it began to flood with immigrants. Now, this presented a whole nother set of problems, and basically turned the nabe into a dystopian Babel, but that’s better than a black ghetto, nome sane?
    (This might explain the strange toleration for rampant immigration, till now, among regular white folks.)

    Still the process was tragic.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    And my mom in oldster heaven in Florida 30 miles north of Tampa, a "we're all God's children" sort who says her Rosary every night. She despairs of her racist lunatic of a son. She gets all her news from ABC and the Tampa Tribune and is well content.

    Then there was a drive-by two towns away, a Section 8 coalburner and her child were wounded by the rival crew of the baby daddy. Mom is much more amenable to "noticing things" now. I'll have her elsewhere before the inexorable creep of heathens gets to her village.
  19. I got interested in the Birth of a Nation effect and did some rambling, and came up with this:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/opinions/birth-of-nation-review-cane/

    CNN is a hard core leftist outfit now, and the writer is a radical. He wanted the movie to be good, but points out numerous inaccuracies. I knew in my gut that the Cherry character, Turner’s wife, was a fraud. Of course, the whole thing is a fraud – the Turner rebellion was a flop, but it’s the specific historical inaccuracies that interest me.

    PS – What about the Kaepernick effect? Anything to that?

    There sure are a lot of effects coming out now — and all of them source back to race.

    • Replies: @Random Dude on the Internet
    This movie is only planned to do $10 million in the box office this weekend. Fox Searchlight (who paid over $17 million for the rights) has sent it out to die, due to the allegations against Parker and his refusal to play along and go on an apology tour. Now Fox is hoping that a biopic about Jackie Kennedy is the Oscar winner for them. Nate Parker's career is effectively finished and he should consider himself lucky if he even can get the bit parts in black movies like he used to before this movie.

    Realistically, there won't be any Birth of a Nation effect because Hollywood is deciding to quickly dump and memoryhole this movie and Nate Parker instead. Which is a shame too because you know they were hoping to make it this year's Selma, 12 Years a Slave, etc.
  20. This is another point, Trump needs to–stop being lazy and–nail Hillary with. Maybe get a Trump supporter in the town hall to nail her with it:

    When Hillary left the White House and could live anywhere in the US, she fled to one of the whitest communities in the nation Chappaqua NY–99% non-vibrant.

    Now she’s spend the past two years ginning up this BLM nonsense–the lie the cops are out hunting black men–in order to get blacks angry and … voting for the Democrats, for Hillary. The result has predictably been the Ferguson effect–a big 15% jump in murders, some 1500 more this year, 1000 more dead blacks. Plus 10 police assasinations. Plus riots.

    None of this, of course, affects her in her rich white utopia of Chappaqua. But what are ordinary working and middle class folks supposed to do? Where do they go for safety? Isn’t it unfair for Hillary to be able to live without this violence, while people who didn’t gin it up have to live with it. Wouldn’t it be more fair if Hillary opened up her Chappaqua house to host some middle class people displaced by the rioting in Fergeson?

    ~~
    And the same for refugees. All the “progressive” white people like Hillary who practically pull a shoulder muscle patting themselves on the back over their “tolerance” and “openness” for welcoming refugees … never seem to actually take the refugees in *their* neighborhoods, in *their* kids schools. They are for taking in refugees to dump on … other white people. The Somalis end up in Minneapolis and Lewiston Maine, the Hmong in rural Wisconsin–where they drive up crime and make life less pleasant–the Hmong in rural Wisconsin.

    If we are taking in 600000 Syrian refugees, how many go to Chappaqua? And not carefully screened ones but the same ones the rest of us have to take. How many refugee kids go to Sidwell friends? How many will go to Chelsea’s neighborhood? How many refugee kids will there be in class with Chelsea’s kid–your grandkid? I’m pretty sure we know the answer–none.

  21. @Bill
    Yeah, I've watched a number of neighborhoods tip. It's interesting that there is always this hard core of old, white people whose attitude is basically "It's my house. It's my neighborhood. I'll die here." There was one neighborhood I visited sometimes where the old, white people walked, en bloc, several times a day through the burned-out shell of their neighborhood. As if to say "We're not dead yet. And, unlike you trash, we can easily and spontaneously organize a multiple-times-a-day demonstration of peaceable solidarity." But the people with children run. And, in the particular neighborhood I'm thinking about, all the old, white people are dead now.

    It's also interesting the way school busing went from being a premiere domestic issue in the 70s to being nothing. The evil elite seems to have grasped that actively endangering white parents' children was not going to be good for them. So they stopped. Really quite suddenly upon Reagan's election.

    It took a few decades for the effects of the disastrous social engineering experiments to be so obvious that they could no longer be ignored. Forced integration without regard to consequences, disruption of ethnic neighborhoods in a callous power play to retain a voting majority. A few generations hurt, to what end?

  22. @WhatEvvs
    I got interested in the Birth of a Nation effect and did some rambling, and came up with this:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/opinions/birth-of-nation-review-cane/

    CNN is a hard core leftist outfit now, and the writer is a radical. He wanted the movie to be good, but points out numerous inaccuracies. I knew in my gut that the Cherry character, Turner's wife, was a fraud. Of course, the whole thing is a fraud - the Turner rebellion was a flop, but it's the specific historical inaccuracies that interest me.

    PS - What about the Kaepernick effect? Anything to that?

    There sure are a lot of effects coming out now -- and all of them source back to race.

    This movie is only planned to do $10 million in the box office this weekend. Fox Searchlight (who paid over $17 million for the rights) has sent it out to die, due to the allegations against Parker and his refusal to play along and go on an apology tour. Now Fox is hoping that a biopic about Jackie Kennedy is the Oscar winner for them. Nate Parker’s career is effectively finished and he should consider himself lucky if he even can get the bit parts in black movies like he used to before this movie.

    Realistically, there won’t be any Birth of a Nation effect because Hollywood is deciding to quickly dump and memoryhole this movie and Nate Parker instead. Which is a shame too because you know they were hoping to make it this year’s Selma, 12 Years a Slave, etc.

    • Replies: @WhatEvvs
    Only because Parker turned out to be a rapist so that gave the PTB an excuse to dump him. I guess we are lucky in that regard, although his poor victim certainly had to pay a high price. She committed suicide.

    We are also lucky in that Parker is a hack, and the movie is an artistic failure. But you'll never get me to believe that's why reliably lefty outfits such as CNN and Nation have panned it. I really think that there's a bit of nervousness attached to this. Turner actually did chop up white babies. This is not a Tarantino goof.

    Although the sanitized Turner in the movie doesn't kill white babies, the movie might encourage people to look up the historical record, which states that he did. Not a great thing to excuse! So I think that the leftists are using the excuse of Parker's sullied name to get after him about historical inaccuracies, which they normally wouldn't give a frig about.

    I also think you're dismissing the potential of the movie to cause trouble. It's going to be shown in black churches, and the studio has glossy "study aids" to help the parishioners understand what a martyr for justice Turner was. Will they contain the part where the Turner gang returned to a house to slaughter an infant, because in the heat of the orgy, they had forgotten? I don't know.
    , @Jim Don Bob
    If Fox has sent BoaN out to die, why have I seen so many commercials for it? TV commercials are expensive. They also said it opens Friday "everywhere" which means significant distribution costs.
  23. @bomag

    ... there could be no place for “vilifying foreigners in the new Britain”.
     
    I wonder if that includes the French.

    Maybe all those Nazis hiding in South America will consider a new home... the current political leadership in Britain is certainly well read on that ideology.

    Maybe a new nursing home. Even the youngest Nazi is now 80+.

  24. @Random Dude on the Internet
    This movie is only planned to do $10 million in the box office this weekend. Fox Searchlight (who paid over $17 million for the rights) has sent it out to die, due to the allegations against Parker and his refusal to play along and go on an apology tour. Now Fox is hoping that a biopic about Jackie Kennedy is the Oscar winner for them. Nate Parker's career is effectively finished and he should consider himself lucky if he even can get the bit parts in black movies like he used to before this movie.

    Realistically, there won't be any Birth of a Nation effect because Hollywood is deciding to quickly dump and memoryhole this movie and Nate Parker instead. Which is a shame too because you know they were hoping to make it this year's Selma, 12 Years a Slave, etc.

    Only because Parker turned out to be a rapist so that gave the PTB an excuse to dump him. I guess we are lucky in that regard, although his poor victim certainly had to pay a high price. She committed suicide.

    We are also lucky in that Parker is a hack, and the movie is an artistic failure. But you’ll never get me to believe that’s why reliably lefty outfits such as CNN and Nation have panned it. I really think that there’s a bit of nervousness attached to this. Turner actually did chop up white babies. This is not a Tarantino goof.

    Although the sanitized Turner in the movie doesn’t kill white babies, the movie might encourage people to look up the historical record, which states that he did. Not a great thing to excuse! So I think that the leftists are using the excuse of Parker’s sullied name to get after him about historical inaccuracies, which they normally wouldn’t give a frig about.

    I also think you’re dismissing the potential of the movie to cause trouble. It’s going to be shown in black churches, and the studio has glossy “study aids” to help the parishioners understand what a martyr for justice Turner was. Will they contain the part where the Turner gang returned to a house to slaughter an infant, because in the heat of the orgy, they had forgotten? I don’t know.

  25. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @syonredux
    And the comparisons to Hitler came pretty quick:

    Amber Rudd’s Conservative Party Conference speech has been likened to passages from Adolf Hitler’s book Mein Kampf.

    In her speech, the Home Secretary said firms should declare the percentage of foreign workers they employ as part of a drive to employ more local people.

    The speech sparked fierce criticism and the Labour party said it would “fan the flames of xenophobia and hatred in our communities”.
     

    But LBC Radio host James O’Brien has gone somewhat further, likening Ms Rudd’s address to the rhetoric found within the pages of Hitler’s autobiographical treatise on political ideology Mein Kampf.

    Mr O’Brien read out a passage of Hitler’s book on his radio show, telling listeners he was reading out part of the home secretary’s speech.
     
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-conservative-party-conerence-hitler-mein-kampf-james-obrien-a7347251.html

    ..the Labour party said it would “fan the flames of xenophobia and hatred in our communities.”

    Of course it was the Labour party that created all those “communities” in the first place. Essentially they created xenophobia and racism where none had previously existed in what was a mono-racial white country.

  26. @countenance
    Outside of the Fergaza Strip (the apartment farms of southeast Ferguson), the rest of Ferguson is almost entirely 1950s construction sardine box single owner owner occupied middle aged suburbia, about evenly split between black and white. So, don't be tempted to think that the entirety of the marginal increase in Ferguson's own Ferguson Effect is only affecting the ratchet black undertow.

    Even if none of this would have ever happened, the demographic trajectory in Ferguson was unstoppable, if for no other reason alone, the fact that the public school district Ferguson is in is now 78% black, and you can easily guess the trend. Going back to Ferguson's non-Fergaza sections, the white half are older people without children, and the black half is more demographically balanced in terms of age.

    I’ve found that, outside of the iSteve world, the number of people who understand anything about the Root Causes of Ferguson — demographic replacement, Section 8, center-city gentrification and real-estate interests, declining safety and performance in public schools — is essentially zero.

    The establishment media has done a heckuva job in painting a picture that omits these elementa and more. Americans shrug and accept it as true, more or less. Havel greengrocer style.

  27. @WhatEvvs
    @Bill,

    You described my parents, except that in their neighborhood, as the place was about to tip black, it began to flood with immigrants. Now, this presented a whole nother set of problems, and basically turned the nabe into a dystopian Babel, but that's better than a black ghetto, nome sane?
    (This might explain the strange toleration for rampant immigration, till now, among regular white folks.)

    Still the process was tragic.

    And my mom in oldster heaven in Florida 30 miles north of Tampa, a “we’re all God’s children” sort who says her Rosary every night. She despairs of her racist lunatic of a son. She gets all her news from ABC and the Tampa Tribune and is well content.

    Then there was a drive-by two towns away, a Section 8 coalburner and her child were wounded by the rival crew of the baby daddy. Mom is much more amenable to “noticing things” now. I’ll have her elsewhere before the inexorable creep of heathens gets to her village.

    • Replies: @WhatEvvs
    God bless sweet ladies like your Mom. They will give you their last fuzzy Lifesaver, fished out of their crowded purses. We need sweet ladies like your Mom, but they have no ability to defend themselves, which is why we have nasty evil vicious racist sons like you to do the right thing.

    Get her the hell out of that place before the jackals come. She can't defend herself. She needs you.

  28. @Random Dude on the Internet
    This movie is only planned to do $10 million in the box office this weekend. Fox Searchlight (who paid over $17 million for the rights) has sent it out to die, due to the allegations against Parker and his refusal to play along and go on an apology tour. Now Fox is hoping that a biopic about Jackie Kennedy is the Oscar winner for them. Nate Parker's career is effectively finished and he should consider himself lucky if he even can get the bit parts in black movies like he used to before this movie.

    Realistically, there won't be any Birth of a Nation effect because Hollywood is deciding to quickly dump and memoryhole this movie and Nate Parker instead. Which is a shame too because you know they were hoping to make it this year's Selma, 12 Years a Slave, etc.

    If Fox has sent BoaN out to die, why have I seen so many commercials for it? TV commercials are expensive. They also said it opens Friday “everywhere” which means significant distribution costs.

  29. @Brutusale
    And my mom in oldster heaven in Florida 30 miles north of Tampa, a "we're all God's children" sort who says her Rosary every night. She despairs of her racist lunatic of a son. She gets all her news from ABC and the Tampa Tribune and is well content.

    Then there was a drive-by two towns away, a Section 8 coalburner and her child were wounded by the rival crew of the baby daddy. Mom is much more amenable to "noticing things" now. I'll have her elsewhere before the inexorable creep of heathens gets to her village.

    God bless sweet ladies like your Mom. They will give you their last fuzzy Lifesaver, fished out of their crowded purses. We need sweet ladies like your Mom, but they have no ability to defend themselves, which is why we have nasty evil vicious racist sons like you to do the right thing.

    Get her the hell out of that place before the jackals come. She can’t defend herself. She needs you.

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