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From bioRxiv:

Predicting educational achievement from genomic measures and socioeconomic status
Sophie von Stumm, Emily Smith-Woolley, Ziada Ayorech, Andrew McMillan, Kaili Rimfeld, Philip Dale, Robert Plomin

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed

The two best predictors of children’s educational achievement available from birth are parents’ socioeconomic status (SES) and, recently, children’s inherited DNA differences that can be aggregated in genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS). Here we chart for the first time the developmental interplay between these two predictors of educational achievement at ages 7, 11, 14 and 16 in a sample of almost 5,000 UK school children. … At the end of compulsory education at age 16, GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement; controlling for genetic influence on SES reduces its predictive power to 16%.

So, socio-economic status is currently a little more powerful of a predictor of educational achievement than polygenic scores from Lee’s big 2018 study.

Analyses of the extremes of GPS and SES highlight their influence and interplay: In children who have high GPS and come from high SES families, 77% go to university, whereas 21% of children with low GPS and from low SES backgrounds attend university. We find that the effects of GPS and SES are primarily additive, suggesting that their joint impact is particularly dramatic for children at the extreme ends of the distribution.

 
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  1. How does one account for the effect that your GPS, via your parents’ related GPS, has on your childhood SES through the effect that GPS has on your parents’ child-rearing stage SES?

    Basically, smart babies tend to have high SES parents because they tend to have high GPS parents and high GPS helps their parents achieve a high SES.

    • Replies: @Steve in Greensboro
    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.
    , @Redneck farmer
    Charles Murray got in trouble for pointing that out.
    , @J.Ross
    Robert Kiyosaki's Rich Dad, Poor Dad premise (personal wealth is like a family trade) makes such intuitive sense that it won a following, and retains some audience despite the example of rich but bad parents, rich yet dumb sons, and even after Kiyosaki was exposed as a fraud.
  2. The usual suspects in the Ed conglomerate will announce that all poor people will now be given money, a nice house in a nice part of town, and a fancy job; all in service to bettering outcomes.

    That there is not enough money or nice things will then become a topic for wailing and gnashing of teeth.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    bo, Poor people are given free education, partial or full housing and sustainable free food. Their children are now bundled off to Head Start or pre-K as early as age 3. The children are then given free breakfast and lunch. Their older siblings are also given free lunch and in some cases free breakfast. What is wrong with you? Who needs a fancy job? All of this is reparations that are unappreciated. P.S. The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained. Teachers don't want to clean then and change, neither do aides. Solution? Send them to the school nurse.
  3. I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    My bet would be that they regress to their genetic mean. Which would prove pretty much what we have going on now in America--that all the teeth gnashing over educational spending is meaningless after some minimum level of expenditure.
    , @TheJester

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.

    Hence, as might be expected, affirmative action tends to create an artificial measure of SES accomplishment. Let me speculate that in future generations this might also create resentment and a renewed sense of victimization on the part of, let's say, black children who did not get a free ride through a prestigious university like their parents.

    This is another way of saying that GPS, as a single parameter, is more important than SES in predicting future accomplishment. This is also common sense.

    , @Hodag
    Arnold Schwarzenegger's kid with the maid?
    , @Nepotistic
    > I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    Isn't it obvious?



    Low GPS, high SES beats high GPS, low SES, everytime. And that's just common sense.

    Family wealth and connections will take you further in education than being poor with high IQ (eg. Christopher Langan).
  4. @Tyrion 2
    How does one account for the effect that your GPS, via your parents' related GPS, has on your childhood SES through the effect that GPS has on your parents' child-rearing stage SES?

    Basically, smart babies tend to have high SES parents because they tend to have high GPS parents and high GPS helps their parents achieve a high SES.

    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.

    • Replies: @War for Blair Mountain
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue...not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test.....You obviously want to have never-ending debates about IQ test score psychometrics, while the Democratic Party imports the highly racialized Democratic Party Voting Bloc from China and India......What a fool you are......
    , @Jus' Sayin'...
    You are ignoring the issue of multicollinearity raised by Tyrion 2. Conceptually, if two or more independent variables in a regression equation are related to one another, the estimates of their individual effects on the dependent variable are unstable and cannot be disentangled from one another. Mathematically, if the determinant of the correlation matrix (among the independent variables) is small, as is the case with collinear independent variables, one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error), meaning that estimates of betas are unstable and subject to high standard errors.
    , @Bill
    A guy on the faculty where I went to grad school used to rage out about this "That's what the X'X - inverse matrix does, idiot!" No fun being on the receiving end of that, but it kind of prevents you from making the mistake later.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    So if A influences B; and B also influences A; and they both influence C; then how do you isolate the independent effects of A and B, respectively, on C? Is that basically the issue?

    Sounds like a problem with no definitive solution that must come up in pretty much all multivariate social science analysis.

    It does seem, however, that the following passage indicates an attempt to calculate and remove the confounding effect of GPS on SES. (Although, I suppose an environmentalist would say that presupposes that the causation flows in that direction, and not vice versa).


    At the end of compulsory education at age 16, GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement; controlling for genetic influence on SES reduces its predictive power to 16%.
     
  5. Bet they are really limiting what genetic markers they use and pretending the genetic markers of rich parents are rich genes not cognition genes this was study designed to minimize race/genetic role in cognition

  6. 14% / 16%, huh? They can’t control for all other variables, so there’s probably a decent amount of slop in this, and educational achievement is not the only measure of intelligence, so let’s just go with “about 50/50”. Whatdya know? You mean people who didn’t get paid the big bucks to work nice hours at the U. knew this same thing, and a century or two or three earlier? I want my bloody tax money back!

  7. @Steve in Greensboro
    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.

    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue…not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test…..You obviously want to have never-ending debates about IQ test score psychometrics, while the Democratic Party imports the highly racialized Democratic Party Voting Bloc from China and India……What a fool you are……

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency

    You obviously want to have never-ending debates
     
    Sufi story that illustrates your point:
    The bread and the dervish
    https://sufiway.eu/sufi-story-3/

    Counterinsurgency
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Congrats on the repairs to your CAPS LOCK! I bet you feel like a new man. I know I DID!
    , @Peter Frost
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue…not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test


    Uh, nothing is stopping you from engaging with the real world. And if no one else is doing anything politically in your neck of the woods you can be the first to try and do something. Like run for office. Even if you lose, you'll get the message out.

    Or do you want Steve to do all of the heavy lifting?

  8. @War for Blair Mountain
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue...not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test.....You obviously want to have never-ending debates about IQ test score psychometrics, while the Democratic Party imports the highly racialized Democratic Party Voting Bloc from China and India......What a fool you are......

    You obviously want to have never-ending debates

    Sufi story that illustrates your point:
    The bread and the dervish
    https://sufiway.eu/sufi-story-3/

    Counterinsurgency

  9. @Cloudbuster
    I'd be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    My bet would be that they regress to their genetic mean. Which would prove pretty much what we have going on now in America–that all the teeth gnashing over educational spending is meaningless after some minimum level of expenditure.

  10. @Cloudbuster
    I'd be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.

    Hence, as might be expected, affirmative action tends to create an artificial measure of SES accomplishment. Let me speculate that in future generations this might also create resentment and a renewed sense of victimization on the part of, let’s say, black children who did not get a free ride through a prestigious university like their parents.

    This is another way of saying that GPS, as a single parameter, is more important than SES in predicting future accomplishment. This is also common sense.

    • Replies: @phil
    Good comment. It is well-known among intelligence researchers that the white-black IQ gap is greater at high SES levels than at low SES levels. The most straightforward explanation for this is that high SES among blacks often reflects affirmative action and not-very-high IQ (even in the case of high-SES blacks). Thus, Michelle Obama attended Princeton and attained high SES, but her IQ is not very impressive.
    , @res


    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.
     
    Although I agree with your overall point, it does not apply here. This study is European ancestry only. Which returns us to Cloudbuster's original question. I would nominate multi-generation inherited wealth. Any other proposals?

    It is always worth remembering that EA (Educational Attainment, here years of education) is an imperfect metric of accomplishment. Especially in a country with widespread college attendance by the marginally competent. A PhD in grievance studies is worth more than an Engineering bachelors or a practical technical study like being an electrician.
  11. GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement.

    This doesn’t seem to be as high as expected?

    • Replies: @Bill
    Totally normal for social sciences. Lots of unmeasured, uncontrolled random crap (including simple reporting errors in the data) muck up relationships. Gleaming equipment inside sound-proofed, insulated, Faraday Cages we do not have. On the bright side, no cables snaking across concrete floors to trip on, either.

    That GPS is lower than SES and that SES doesn't drop that much controlling for GPS is kind of surprising to me. You can always explain it with "we haven't yet found the right score," of course.

    Actually @AnotherDad explains this well above.

    , @gregor
    Usually “explained variance” is the R-squared. The R-squared is the square of the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values. So for example 16% explained variance would mean 40% correlation between actual and predicted values. That’s not so bad in social science when you’re trying to predict noisy (and flawed) outcomes like educational attainment. There are lots of things like restriction of range and measurement issues that can obscure predictive power,

    Note this part:


    In children who have high GPS and come from high SES families, 77% go to university, whereas 21% of children with low GPS and from low SES backgrounds attend university.
     
    Both of those have “low” R-squared values. Yet you see a pretty dramatic range from high end to low end.
  12. Anon[713] • Disclaimer says:

    That big n=1 million study used highest educational level achieved (or in some cases, highest math class completed) as a proxy for IQ. The association between EA and IQ is weak or weak-moderate, but with such a large sample, the noise cancels out. But maybe not completely.

    I’m finishing up Innate by Kevin Mitchell, and it’s the best of the 2018 genetics books in my opinion. Richard Haier said in Quillette that it should be required reading for high school students before they go to college and get brainwashed.

    The clearest thing I’ve gotten from the book is that in thinking about intelligence, you need to get up out of the weeds of GPS and GWAS and think of the brain as a completed organ. Genes and fetal development are the design and construction of the brain, but the resulting brain is what determines intelligence. Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs. Mitchell himself doesn’t quite say this explicitly, but that is what I’ve pulled from the book myself.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.
  13. @War for Blair Mountain
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue...not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test.....You obviously want to have never-ending debates about IQ test score psychometrics, while the Democratic Party imports the highly racialized Democratic Party Voting Bloc from China and India......What a fool you are......

    Congrats on the repairs to your CAPS LOCK! I bet you feel like a new man. I know I DID!

  14. • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Alarm, Pete Carroll coach of the Seattle Seahawks is an open mouth gum chewer. Throwing a pass from the two yard line instead of handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch says a lot about his thinking skills.
  15. 14% and 16% so … 70% “random”?–as in random developmental stuff, within in SES parenting style (inc. diet), teachers at school, etc. etc.?

    Seems … ridiculous. Note, i think there is huge randomness involved in a persons achieved SES (especially women). But this is just in school educational achievement.

    My immediate take would be “we need to find more genes!”, except my understanding–perhaps faulty–of this “polygenic score” is that these guys throw *everything*–whole genome–into the hopper and then correlate against actual educational achievement. So everything–at least additive variance–should be there.

    I think it’s quite likely that there is significant non-additive variance where say both gene A and gene B correlate, but the real “pop” is having gene A for say a neurotransmitter variant and gene B for a neuroreceptor variant or say gene A for skull size and gene B that encourages growth of more gray matter. Multi-gene correlations are possible. Still additive should mostly get you there.

    There is also no doubt tremendous randomness in a “educational attainment” as in university degrees and the like. But their measures here are of “educational achievement at ages 7, 11, 14 and 16” which sounds like standardized testing (some UK equivalent of the ITBS) and GCSE (O-levels). These sort of things tend to correlate very highly with IQ scores. (Perhaps more so for girls than boys but highly nonetheless.)

    So it’s a bit perplexing–to me at least. I think this stuff is overwhelmingly genetic at least in modern America where everyone is adequately fed and vaccinated and gets publicly funded schooling. I did not know how smart my kids were going to be absolutely, but I knew by age 3 or 4 how they would rank relative to each other on the SAT and which subtest would be stronger. I was dead on. All the AnotherDad, AnotherMom parenting … may have helped or hurt here and there, but wasn’t changing the lay of the land. Genes are your blueprints. There’s no getting around it.

    • Agree: Kylie
    • Replies: @Xenophon Hendrix
    I'm not an expert on this stuff, so take everything I say with salt. From my reading of the paper, they don't include everything in the polygenic score. They can only include what was included on the SNP chips. Then, for ease of calculation, they threw out most of the SNPs for a reason I do not understand. (I don't have the statistical sophistication to understand it.)

    Furthermore, the 70% of variance not explained by their model isn't just random error. In part it reflects the crudity of their measurements. If you were trying to determine the amount of human mass variance explained by differences in height but only had rulers accurate to one foot, the correlation would be weaker than if you had rulers accurate to one millimeter. SES is a crude measure. The educational attainment was based on teachers' assessments of the children's English and mathematics. Again, this is pretty crude.
  16. @Steve in Greensboro
    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.

    You are ignoring the issue of multicollinearity raised by Tyrion 2. Conceptually, if two or more independent variables in a regression equation are related to one another, the estimates of their individual effects on the dependent variable are unstable and cannot be disentangled from one another. Mathematically, if the determinant of the correlation matrix (among the independent variables) is small, as is the case with collinear independent variables, one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error), meaning that estimates of betas are unstable and subject to high standard errors.

    • Replies: @Tyrion 2
    I want to just hit "agree" but I had to look a bunch of stuff up before I was sure so I think that'd be a bit pretentious of me. Anyway, thank you.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error)
     
    True, so you have to hire Chuck Norris to solve the problem. Only Chuck can divide by zero.
  17. @Anon
    That big n=1 million study used highest educational level achieved (or in some cases, highest math class completed) as a proxy for IQ. The association between EA and IQ is weak or weak-moderate, but with such a large sample, the noise cancels out. But maybe not completely.

    I'm finishing up Innate by Kevin Mitchell, and it's the best of the 2018 genetics books in my opinion. Richard Haier said in Quillette that it should be required reading for high school students before they go to college and get brainwashed.

    The clearest thing I've gotten from the book is that in thinking about intelligence, you need to get up out of the weeds of GPS and GWAS and think of the brain as a completed organ. Genes and fetal development are the design and construction of the brain, but the resulting brain is what determines intelligence. Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs. Mitchell himself doesn't quite say this explicitly, but that is what I've pulled from the book myself.

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.

    Don’t know whether he says this or thinks this, but i’m confident it’s profoundly wrong.

    What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution–just like everything else.

    It’s quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple “harmful mutation” model doesn’t account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly–not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have–through selection–more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general “hazy” depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
    You are correct that is not what Mitchell was saying.
    When I was young I could run 100 meters in 12 seconds. Usain Bolt can run it in 9 seconds. The difference is not because the the genetic code for the anatomy of my hips and legs is riddled with errors and Bolt’s genetic code is perfect. The difference in performance is mostly due to nature and nurture, differences in the design of skeletal dimensions, number and contraction speed of muscle cells etc., enhanced by training and consumption of performance enhancing drugs.
    If I have a two story house designed and built I don’t have to caution the architect and the contractor to make sure to throw in some random errors when designing and building it, otherwise I’ll end up with a house taller than the Burj Khalifa.
    , @Anon
    Roughly loc. 2714 on Kindle in "Innate" by Kevin Mitchell:

    "... the genetic architecture of intelligence is likely dominated by 'minus' variants. These are not genes 'for intelligence' -- quite the opposite, in fact. Perhaps what we're really talking about is the genetics of stupidity."

    He refers to the "Platonic ideal" brain that has the "theoretical maximum intelligence."

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.

    , @Hypnotoad666
    I think you are right about there being no single "perfect" brain from an evolutionary point of view.

    Indeed, in many environments a low-energy, low-IQ brain would have had survival value over a big, high-maintenance brain. There is a tendency -- perhaps you could call it a fallacy -- when thinking about evolution to assume that higher complexity is always an "advance." Just as often, however, organisms will reduce complexity to become better adapted to a changing environment.

    But with all that said, when Anon refers to a "perfect" brain he could be mainly referring to the "perfect" translation of genotype to phenotype in terms of fetal development, etc.

    That's an interesting idea (I think), as it highlights the fact that most of what passes for "environment" is really just the noise involved in expressing one's genes rather than the controllable "nurture" factor that everyone assumes the term means.
    , @Lot
    "What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing. "

    His point still remains, and maybe you can say there are multiple ones.

    But the idea is that all of us have a bunch of rare negative random mutations and the varying number of such mutations is the really big reason for within-group IQ variation.

    The extent this is the case is larger than initially thought which is why the massive GWAS studies still are only finding genes for a small share of intelligence variation.

    High paternal age is linked to such mutations, and may be why IQ is lower in polygamous cultures, with young women being married off as additional wives to men over 50, and the remaining men having to accumulate resources and status for years to compete for the short supply of women.

    , @Mr McKenna

    What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing.
     
    I'd nominate this one:

    Isaac Newton explaining why he published so much of his work anonymously: “Public esteem, were I able to acquire and maintain it…would perhaps increase my acquaintance, the thing which I chiefly study to decline.”

    Trying to find that one indicates that this is now the most famous Newton quote:

    https://www.brainyquote.com/photos_tr/en/i/isaacnewton/129998/isaacnewton1-2x.jpg
    , @AnotherDad

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.
     
    Not buying it.

    Note: not saying negative mutations aren't a "hazy depression" on mental functioning, i'm sure they are. (My "hazy depression" i think is pretty good verbiage for it.)

    But a "minus" model as fundamental essentially assumes that all (or most) of the "positive" variants we have essentially reached fixation at least within a "population group". This isn't even true of something like adult lactose tolerance, which is pretty darn old and pretty darn useful.

    In contrast common, sense suggests that civilization--pretty darn new--has been increasing the payoff to exhanced/extended/difference modes of mental processing and new variants would be getting their "test drive" right now. The example of the Ashkenazi who--all the evidence suggests--became radically smarter during the last 1000 years of middle-man-minority work, suggests the speed and demand. And the selective environment for Europeans--ex. the payoff for literacy--has been moving quickly over just the past few hundred years. No, there are plenty of variants out there--in Euros but no doubt in other civilized peoples--that are recent, not fixed and affect the efficiency and capability of our brains--i.e. "smarts".


    This focus on the "minus" thing to me is apiece with not mentioning race--another bit of left-creationisn. There's a genetic template that was set back in the mists of time, but some pieces of it get hit by mutation so sure we all varying a bit. Just more denial of what Cochran+Harpending called the 10,000 year explosion--i.e. that the fast changes that humans have been making in their own environment have speeded evolution up.
  18. Anon[210] • Disclaimer says:

    You’re right that it’s overwhelmingly genetic. Read Plomin’s and Mitchell’s books from late last year. Half of “environment” is environment you make or seek out based on your genetic tendencies, and most of the rest is “random” stuff that happens as cells multiply to create your brain, whose plan is in your genome, but much happens on the construction site, so to speak. The latter is not so much genetic as it is “innate.” Being left handed or gay is more innate than genetic, in this sense.

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    "The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete"

    So the wealthy (and not so wealthy) are wasting their money sending their children to "the right schools" rather than public education?
    , @Jack D

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.
     
    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let's say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you're going to prison . But let's say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest - maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don't shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.
  19. How does this reconcile with the studies that whites from below $20K income households outscore blacks from $100k+ households on the SAT?

    • Replies: @res
    I know you are joking, but to be clear, the study was European ancestry only.
  20. @Steve in Greensboro
    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.

    A guy on the faculty where I went to grad school used to rage out about this “That’s what the X’X – inverse matrix does, idiot!” No fun being on the receiving end of that, but it kind of prevents you from making the mistake later.

  21. @TheJester

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.

    Hence, as might be expected, affirmative action tends to create an artificial measure of SES accomplishment. Let me speculate that in future generations this might also create resentment and a renewed sense of victimization on the part of, let's say, black children who did not get a free ride through a prestigious university like their parents.

    This is another way of saying that GPS, as a single parameter, is more important than SES in predicting future accomplishment. This is also common sense.

    Good comment. It is well-known among intelligence researchers that the white-black IQ gap is greater at high SES levels than at low SES levels. The most straightforward explanation for this is that high SES among blacks often reflects affirmative action and not-very-high IQ (even in the case of high-SES blacks). Thus, Michelle Obama attended Princeton and attained high SES, but her IQ is not very impressive.

  22. @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    You are correct that is not what Mitchell was saying.
    When I was young I could run 100 meters in 12 seconds. Usain Bolt can run it in 9 seconds. The difference is not because the the genetic code for the anatomy of my hips and legs is riddled with errors and Bolt’s genetic code is perfect. The difference in performance is mostly due to nature and nurture, differences in the design of skeletal dimensions, number and contraction speed of muscle cells etc., enhanced by training and consumption of performance enhancing drugs.
    If I have a two story house designed and built I don’t have to caution the architect and the contractor to make sure to throw in some random errors when designing and building it, otherwise I’ll end up with a house taller than the Burj Khalifa.

  23. @Cloudbuster
    I'd be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    Arnold Schwarzenegger’s kid with the maid?

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    Arnold Schwarzenegger’s kid with the maid?
     
    Please provide data.
  24. @anonymous

    GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement.
     
    This doesn't seem to be as high as expected?

    Totally normal for social sciences. Lots of unmeasured, uncontrolled random crap (including simple reporting errors in the data) muck up relationships. Gleaming equipment inside sound-proofed, insulated, Faraday Cages we do not have. On the bright side, no cables snaking across concrete floors to trip on, either.

    That GPS is lower than SES and that SES doesn’t drop that much controlling for GPS is kind of surprising to me. You can always explain it with “we haven’t yet found the right score,” of course.

    Actually explains this well above.

  25. @AnotherDad
    14% and 16% so ... 70% "random"?--as in random developmental stuff, within in SES parenting style (inc. diet), teachers at school, etc. etc.?

    Seems ... ridiculous. Note, i think there is huge randomness involved in a persons achieved SES (especially women). But this is just in school educational achievement.

    My immediate take would be "we need to find more genes!", except my understanding--perhaps faulty--of this "polygenic score" is that these guys throw *everything*--whole genome--into the hopper and then correlate against actual educational achievement. So everything--at least additive variance--should be there.

    I think it's quite likely that there is significant non-additive variance where say both gene A and gene B correlate, but the real "pop" is having gene A for say a neurotransmitter variant and gene B for a neuroreceptor variant or say gene A for skull size and gene B that encourages growth of more gray matter. Multi-gene correlations are possible. Still additive should mostly get you there.

    There is also no doubt tremendous randomness in a "educational attainment" as in university degrees and the like. But their measures here are of "educational achievement at ages 7, 11, 14 and 16" which sounds like standardized testing (some UK equivalent of the ITBS) and GCSE (O-levels). These sort of things tend to correlate very highly with IQ scores. (Perhaps more so for girls than boys but highly nonetheless.)

    So it's a bit perplexing--to me at least. I think this stuff is overwhelmingly genetic at least in modern America where everyone is adequately fed and vaccinated and gets publicly funded schooling. I did not know how smart my kids were going to be absolutely, but I knew by age 3 or 4 how they would rank relative to each other on the SAT and which subtest would be stronger. I was dead on. All the AnotherDad, AnotherMom parenting … may have helped or hurt here and there, but wasn't changing the lay of the land. Genes are your blueprints. There's no getting around it.

    I’m not an expert on this stuff, so take everything I say with salt. From my reading of the paper, they don’t include everything in the polygenic score. They can only include what was included on the SNP chips. Then, for ease of calculation, they threw out most of the SNPs for a reason I do not understand. (I don’t have the statistical sophistication to understand it.)

    Furthermore, the 70% of variance not explained by their model isn’t just random error. In part it reflects the crudity of their measurements. If you were trying to determine the amount of human mass variance explained by differences in height but only had rulers accurate to one foot, the correlation would be weaker than if you had rulers accurate to one millimeter. SES is a crude measure. The educational attainment was based on teachers’ assessments of the children’s English and mathematics. Again, this is pretty crude.

  26. @Jack D
    How does this reconcile with the studies that whites from below $20K income households outscore blacks from $100k+ households on the SAT?

    I know you are joking, but to be clear, the study was European ancestry only.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Researchers who are politically savvy (or who have been burned before - see Murray with "Coming Apart") will more and more do studies that are structured to avoid the elephant in the room of race. Which is a shame because avoiding it doesn't make the elephant go away. And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.
  27. • LOL: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson 3
    God Damn Dan Levin. I pray that Dan Levin will die before you read this post, and that he will swim in the Lake.

    Tomorrow I will fast, and then I shall pray that Dan Levin will be held to account. And BTW did I mention that I am offering supplication to the Almighty for Dan Levin to be cast into outer darkness?

    To quote Richard M. Nixon: "God Damn him."
  28. I am intrigued by their methodology here:

    The GPS were adjusted for the first ten principal components of the genotype data, chip, batch and plate effects using the regression method and the standardized residuals were used for all subsequent analyses (see Supplementary Methods S2 for details)

    First, the word “principal” does not appear in the Supplementary Materials.

    What I don’t understand is how they can eliminate the first 10 PCs without even checking if they have an effect. I suspect this contributes to the lowish 14% variance explained. I wonder how Steve Hsu (et al.)’s height results would appear using this methodology.

    Here are some details from the Supplementary Materials:

    DNA samples were excluded from subsequent analyses on the basis of call rate (<0.98), suspected non-European ancestry, the presence of severe medical or psychiatry problems or severe medical complications during early gestation and relatedness other than dizygotic twin status. SNPs were excluded if the minor allele frequency was <0.5%, if more than 2% of genotype data were missing, or if the Hardy Weinberg p-value was lower than 10-5. Non-autosomal markers and indels were also removed.

    So they exclude low frequency SNPs (< 0.5%), indels, and the X (non-autosomal) chromosome. I wonder how much all of those affect the results. It seems like one would at least want to check (and report) if they contribute much to the variance explained.

  29. @TheJester

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.

    Hence, as might be expected, affirmative action tends to create an artificial measure of SES accomplishment. Let me speculate that in future generations this might also create resentment and a renewed sense of victimization on the part of, let's say, black children who did not get a free ride through a prestigious university like their parents.

    This is another way of saying that GPS, as a single parameter, is more important than SES in predicting future accomplishment. This is also common sense.

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.

    Although I agree with your overall point, it does not apply here. This study is European ancestry only. Which returns us to Cloudbuster’s original question. I would nominate multi-generation inherited wealth. Any other proposals?

    It is always worth remembering that EA (Educational Attainment, here years of education) is an imperfect metric of accomplishment. Especially in a country with widespread college attendance by the marginally competent. A PhD in grievance studies is worth more than an Engineering bachelors or a practical technical study like being an electrician.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    Actors, athletes, models and rock stars.

    Also, sociopathic salesmen.

    , @bomag
    What Hypnotoad said.

    Plus, I've seen some examples of families who are essentially illiterate but they have "awesome social skills"; a preternatural knack for managing money; and an exceptional work ethic.
  30. Sacerdote (Dartmouth) found that Korean children adopted into higher-income homes did have a higher rate of college attendance. However, later in life the ones that had been adopted into higher-income homes did not themselves have incomes that were substantially higher than the ones adopted into more-modest homes.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    My wife works with learning disabled kids, which to some extent (she would disagree) is a euphemism for "not that bright". A disproportionate % of her patients are adopted. Rich people don't put their kids up for adoption and poor dysfunctional people tend to have dumb kids (that mom maybe drinks or takes drugs during pregnancy doesn't help either). In the old days, you would have college girls get knocked up and put their kids up for adoption (like Steve Jobs) but that doesn't happen anymore with abortion, birth control and no stigma on single motherhood.

    I live in a superzip so these kids get adopted into high achieving families. It is out of the question that they are attending college even if they are as dumb as rocks (excuse me, learning disabled) - almost 100% of the kids in the local schools attend college. It would embarrass the parents if their kid didn't go to college. Not only do they want their kids to attend college, they want them to attend someplace with name brand cachet (maybe their alma mater) even if that isn't the best place for their kids.

    But these kids retain their familial IQ. Some of these kids are clearly not college material and it is wasted on them (some of them have other talents - artistic, musical, etc. but they are just not set up for academic work). If this same kid got adopted into a blue collar family, the family would be more willing to accept that it's OK for the kid not to attend college if she is not really college material. But the rich kid ends up with a degree in some non-STEM area (no way they could hack a STEM program) and a job as a barista. They would have been better off training for a trade.
  31. @Steve in Greensboro
    Q: How does one account for (distinguish between) GPS and SES?

    A: Linear regression (or other statistical techniques). Some low SES babies have high GPS and vice-versa and using statistical techniques one can distinguish the impacts, admittedly imperfectly, but one can get indications. And as we continue to progress in identifying the many genes which influence IQ, we will be able to refine the GPS measures. None of this is good news for the equality-mongers and white privilege voodoo priests.

    So if A influences B; and B also influences A; and they both influence C; then how do you isolate the independent effects of A and B, respectively, on C? Is that basically the issue?

    Sounds like a problem with no definitive solution that must come up in pretty much all multivariate social science analysis.

    It does seem, however, that the following passage indicates an attempt to calculate and remove the confounding effect of GPS on SES. (Although, I suppose an environmentalist would say that presupposes that the causation flows in that direction, and not vice versa).

    At the end of compulsory education at age 16, GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement; controlling for genetic influence on SES reduces its predictive power to 16%.

    • Replies: @Lot
    Haven't read this paper, but the serious ones in this genre are all very aware of regression pitfalls and take steps to check for them, adjust them, etc.

    We are used to left wing junk science taking advantage of misleading statistical techniques, but it really isn't a problem in any GWAS study I have seen. I consider every one of their authors to be Our Guys.

    So, I politely request to all here not suggesting they suffer from simple methodological issues unless you are reasonably sure after reading and understanding the paper.

    More productive: social media shares of media stories about these studies.

    Even better: adding them to relevant wikipedia articles

    https://i.redd.it/9bc5mqq6aebz.png
  32. Anon[210] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    Roughly loc. 2714 on Kindle in “Innate” by Kevin Mitchell:

    “… the genetic architecture of intelligence is likely dominated by ‘minus’ variants. These are not genes ‘for intelligence’ — quite the opposite, in fact. Perhaps what we’re really talking about is the genetics of stupidity.”

    He refers to the “Platonic ideal” brain that has the “theoretical maximum intelligence.”

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    This is almost surely wrong. Yes, the cause of depressed IQ (within races) must be defects but probably it's like anything else - people start out with average IQ and then really extraordinary individuals (or groups) have "beneficial" mutations on top of that. Usain Bolt probably has a mutation that gives him more fast twitch muscle than the average normal or "perfect" person - he is better than perfect if perfect means having the standard set of genes with no mutations. The "perfect" human has genes that will produce an amount of growth hormone that will grow him to around 6' but Shaquille O'Neal has some mutation that made him grow bigger than "perfect".

    For example, Ashkenazi Jews are known to suffer from genetic diseases ( Tay-Sachs and Gaucher's) that are neurological in nature. One copy of the gene is beneficial for intelligence - the mutation increases levels of a chemical that promotes neuronal growth, but two copies is too much of a good thing and you end up with some terrible disease. Even "beneficial" mutations tend to be two-edged swords, which is why everyone doesn't have them.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/03/science/researchers-say-intelligence-and-diseases-may-be-linked-in.html
    , @Anon
    I think we're talking at cross purposes here. Of course evolution and natural selection have increased intelligence, which is why we are more intelligent than chimps, and evolution continues today. The Jewish example, if true, is a good example of how large mutations usually kill or render infertile their host, but sometimes don't and stick around because of good effects in addition to the bad.

    But within the population of contemporary white Americans, for instance, minus theory explains the cognitive bell curve, among contemporary white Americans.

    Mitchell avoids race here and has the standard weasel statement:


    We know that differences in nutrition, general health, and education can all stongly influence IQ scores. The fact that such socioeconomic differences exist across ethnic categories in the Uniteed States thus suggests a plausible explanation -- at least as likey as, and indeed, more parsimonious than, invoking underlying genetic differences.
     
    So rampant hunger, scurvy, rickets, beri-beri, and being banned from education is the cause of cognitive gaps for blacks. Nothing to see here. Run along. "Parsimonious" is a master touch. I like that. The synonomous "niggardly" would have been in bad taste.
  33. @Tyrion 2
    How does one account for the effect that your GPS, via your parents' related GPS, has on your childhood SES through the effect that GPS has on your parents' child-rearing stage SES?

    Basically, smart babies tend to have high SES parents because they tend to have high GPS parents and high GPS helps their parents achieve a high SES.

    Charles Murray got in trouble for pointing that out.

  34. @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    I think you are right about there being no single “perfect” brain from an evolutionary point of view.

    Indeed, in many environments a low-energy, low-IQ brain would have had survival value over a big, high-maintenance brain. There is a tendency — perhaps you could call it a fallacy — when thinking about evolution to assume that higher complexity is always an “advance.” Just as often, however, organisms will reduce complexity to become better adapted to a changing environment.

    But with all that said, when Anon refers to a “perfect” brain he could be mainly referring to the “perfect” translation of genotype to phenotype in terms of fetal development, etc.

    That’s an interesting idea (I think), as it highlights the fact that most of what passes for “environment” is really just the noise involved in expressing one’s genes rather than the controllable “nurture” factor that everyone assumes the term means.

  35. @res


    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.
     
    Although I agree with your overall point, it does not apply here. This study is European ancestry only. Which returns us to Cloudbuster's original question. I would nominate multi-generation inherited wealth. Any other proposals?

    It is always worth remembering that EA (Educational Attainment, here years of education) is an imperfect metric of accomplishment. Especially in a country with widespread college attendance by the marginally competent. A PhD in grievance studies is worth more than an Engineering bachelors or a practical technical study like being an electrician.

    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    Actors, athletes, models and rock stars.

    Also, sociopathic salesmen.

  36. @res
    I know you are joking, but to be clear, the study was European ancestry only.

    Researchers who are politically savvy (or who have been burned before – see Murray with “Coming Apart”) will more and more do studies that are structured to avoid the elephant in the room of race. Which is a shame because avoiding it doesn’t make the elephant go away. And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @res

    And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

     

    Your hypothetical is already reality (for non-IQ studies at least). This is a fairly level headed discussion: Inclusion of African Americans in Genetic Studies: What Is the Barrier?
    https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/3/336/246240
    I'm pretty sure I have seen less level headed pieces, but can't find any right now.

    This is somewhat related: Genome-wide association studies in Africans and African Americans: Expanding the Framework of the Genomics of Human Traits and Disease
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418477/
    , @Lot
    "will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too."

    Better than the alternative of inclusion and problematic results.

    Also: safety in numbers. Do these studies really require 70 authors? Probably not, but they are harder to target the authors this way.
  37. Schopenhauer wrote something to the effect that if a dunce looks into a book, a genius cannot look out.

  38. @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    “What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing. ”

    His point still remains, and maybe you can say there are multiple ones.

    But the idea is that all of us have a bunch of rare negative random mutations and the varying number of such mutations is the really big reason for within-group IQ variation.

    The extent this is the case is larger than initially thought which is why the massive GWAS studies still are only finding genes for a small share of intelligence variation.

    High paternal age is linked to such mutations, and may be why IQ is lower in polygamous cultures, with young women being married off as additional wives to men over 50, and the remaining men having to accumulate resources and status for years to compete for the short supply of women.

  39. @Jack D
    Researchers who are politically savvy (or who have been burned before - see Murray with "Coming Apart") will more and more do studies that are structured to avoid the elephant in the room of race. Which is a shame because avoiding it doesn't make the elephant go away. And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

    And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

    Your hypothetical is already reality (for non-IQ studies at least). This is a fairly level headed discussion: Inclusion of African Americans in Genetic Studies: What Is the Barrier?
    https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/3/336/246240
    I’m pretty sure I have seen less level headed pieces, but can’t find any right now.

    This is somewhat related: Genome-wide association studies in Africans and African Americans: Expanding the Framework of the Genomics of Human Traits and Disease
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418477/

    • Replies: @Lot
    "What Is the Barrier?"

    People like their academic jobs.
  40. @res

    And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

     

    Your hypothetical is already reality (for non-IQ studies at least). This is a fairly level headed discussion: Inclusion of African Americans in Genetic Studies: What Is the Barrier?
    https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/3/336/246240
    I'm pretty sure I have seen less level headed pieces, but can't find any right now.

    This is somewhat related: Genome-wide association studies in Africans and African Americans: Expanding the Framework of the Genomics of Human Traits and Disease
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418477/

    “What Is the Barrier?”

    People like their academic jobs.

    • Agree: Prodigal son
    • LOL: bomag
    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    There is a bit of truth in your comment, but the full story is more complicated. Sub-Saharan Africans and Europeans have been separated for such a long historical period that polygenic indices estimated on Europeans' genetic data do not fit reliably on Sub-Saharan African data. The polygenic index construction method is quite delicate, and estimated indices are not robust across very different ancestral lines.

    Genetic researchers are in no great hurry to overcome these difficulties, especially for politically "problematic" polygenic indices such as those for educational attainment.

  41. @bomag
    The usual suspects in the Ed conglomerate will announce that all poor people will now be given money, a nice house in a nice part of town, and a fancy job; all in service to bettering outcomes.

    That there is not enough money or nice things will then become a topic for wailing and gnashing of teeth.

    bo, Poor people are given free education, partial or full housing and sustainable free food. Their children are now bundled off to Head Start or pre-K as early as age 3. The children are then given free breakfast and lunch. Their older siblings are also given free lunch and in some cases free breakfast. What is wrong with you? Who needs a fancy job? All of this is reparations that are unappreciated. P.S. The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained. Teachers don’t want to clean then and change, neither do aides. Solution? Send them to the school nurse.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained.
     
    Since this is really just a symptom of our nation's headlong descent into third-world status, we should just let the kids go naked, and hose down the classrooms once a week. No one's quite ready to address the underlying issue: third-world habits are generally suited to equatorial latitudes where it doesn't get as cold as Buffalo or Minneapolis.
  42. @Jack D
    Researchers who are politically savvy (or who have been burned before - see Murray with "Coming Apart") will more and more do studies that are structured to avoid the elephant in the room of race. Which is a shame because avoiding it doesn't make the elephant go away. And then at some point, blacks will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.

    “will notice that they are being excluded from these studies and they will complain about that too.”

    Better than the alternative of inclusion and problematic results.

    Also: safety in numbers. Do these studies really require 70 authors? Probably not, but they are harder to target the authors this way.

  43. @War for Blair Mountain
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue...not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test.....You obviously want to have never-ending debates about IQ test score psychometrics, while the Democratic Party imports the highly racialized Democratic Party Voting Bloc from China and India......What a fool you are......

    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue…not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test

    Uh, nothing is stopping you from engaging with the real world. And if no one else is doing anything politically in your neck of the woods you can be the first to try and do something. Like run for office. Even if you lose, you’ll get the message out.

    Or do you want Steve to do all of the heavy lifting?

    • Agree: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Lot
    Every local GOP needs volunteers. People and tech skills are both needed.
  44. @Jus' Sayin'...
    You are ignoring the issue of multicollinearity raised by Tyrion 2. Conceptually, if two or more independent variables in a regression equation are related to one another, the estimates of their individual effects on the dependent variable are unstable and cannot be disentangled from one another. Mathematically, if the determinant of the correlation matrix (among the independent variables) is small, as is the case with collinear independent variables, one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error), meaning that estimates of betas are unstable and subject to high standard errors.

    I want to just hit “agree” but I had to look a bunch of stuff up before I was sure so I think that’d be a bit pretentious of me. Anyway, thank you.

  45. @Anon
    You're right that it's overwhelmingly genetic. Read Plomin's and Mitchell's books from late last year. Half of "environment" is environment you make or seek out based on your genetic tendencies, and most of the rest is "random" stuff that happens as cells multiply to create your brain, whose plan is in your genome, but much happens on the construction site, so to speak. The latter is not so much genetic as it is "innate." Being left handed or gay is more innate than genetic, in this sense.

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.

    “The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete”

    So the wealthy (and not so wealthy) are wasting their money sending their children to “the right schools” rather than public education?

  46. @Lot
    "What Is the Barrier?"

    People like their academic jobs.

    There is a bit of truth in your comment, but the full story is more complicated. Sub-Saharan Africans and Europeans have been separated for such a long historical period that polygenic indices estimated on Europeans’ genetic data do not fit reliably on Sub-Saharan African data. The polygenic index construction method is quite delicate, and estimated indices are not robust across very different ancestral lines.

    Genetic researchers are in no great hurry to overcome these difficulties, especially for politically “problematic” polygenic indices such as those for educational attainment.

  47. @The Alarmist
    So, chewing gum with mouth open isn't reliable enough? Just axin.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6665417/The-telltale-signs-people-arent-upper-class-seem.html

    Alarm, Pete Carroll coach of the Seattle Seahawks is an open mouth gum chewer. Throwing a pass from the two yard line instead of handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch says a lot about his thinking skills.

  48. NPR is talking about the Sacklers and specifically about all the important structural stuff!
    https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/02/05/activist-art-opioid-crisis-big-pharma
    Sadly, they’re not interviewing a government regulator or a lawyer, they’re interviewing an artist trying to agitate government regulators and lawyers. Baby steps. Also, host Robin Young points out that while the Sacklers are mass murderers, they are also top art patrons.

  49. @Cloudbuster
    I'd be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    > I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?

    Isn’t it obvious?

    Low GPS, high SES beats high GPS, low SES, everytime. And that’s just common sense.

    Family wealth and connections will take you further in education than being poor with high IQ (eg. Christopher Langan).

  50. @phil
    Sacerdote (Dartmouth) found that Korean children adopted into higher-income homes did have a higher rate of college attendance. However, later in life the ones that had been adopted into higher-income homes did not themselves have incomes that were substantially higher than the ones adopted into more-modest homes.

    My wife works with learning disabled kids, which to some extent (she would disagree) is a euphemism for “not that bright”. A disproportionate % of her patients are adopted. Rich people don’t put their kids up for adoption and poor dysfunctional people tend to have dumb kids (that mom maybe drinks or takes drugs during pregnancy doesn’t help either). In the old days, you would have college girls get knocked up and put their kids up for adoption (like Steve Jobs) but that doesn’t happen anymore with abortion, birth control and no stigma on single motherhood.

    I live in a superzip so these kids get adopted into high achieving families. It is out of the question that they are attending college even if they are as dumb as rocks (excuse me, learning disabled) – almost 100% of the kids in the local schools attend college. It would embarrass the parents if their kid didn’t go to college. Not only do they want their kids to attend college, they want them to attend someplace with name brand cachet (maybe their alma mater) even if that isn’t the best place for their kids.

    But these kids retain their familial IQ. Some of these kids are clearly not college material and it is wasted on them (some of them have other talents – artistic, musical, etc. but they are just not set up for academic work). If this same kid got adopted into a blue collar family, the family would be more willing to accept that it’s OK for the kid not to attend college if she is not really college material. But the rich kid ends up with a degree in some non-STEM area (no way they could hack a STEM program) and a job as a barista. They would have been better off training for a trade.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    No worries, the kids will get government jobs with their BS degrees.
    , @Anonymous Jew
    Adoption is like a box of chocolates. In my grad program there was an adopted woman of the reverse origin. She was an unplanned pregnancy born to teenagers in a gifted program/school. She was adopted by a working class father that ran a successful small business. From a young age she outscored all of her siblings and cousins and graduated near the very top of our class.

    I wouldn't adopt without knowing the biological parents. Anything is possible, but at least you know the bell curve you're dealing with. Same with your own children.

    , @Reg Cæsar

    Rich people don’t put their kids up for adoption
     
    They once put their grandkids up for adoption in the event those were sired by the colored chauffeur. Cf. I Shared the Dream, by MLK's mistress.

    Of course, if you were really rich, you could afford little Debbie's airfare to San Juan for an unraided, if nominally illegal, abortion.
  51. @Tyrion 2
    How does one account for the effect that your GPS, via your parents' related GPS, has on your childhood SES through the effect that GPS has on your parents' child-rearing stage SES?

    Basically, smart babies tend to have high SES parents because they tend to have high GPS parents and high GPS helps their parents achieve a high SES.

    Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad, Poor Dad premise (personal wealth is like a family trade) makes such intuitive sense that it won a following, and retains some audience despite the example of rich but bad parents, rich yet dumb sons, and even after Kiyosaki was exposed as a fraud.

  52. @Hypnotoad666
    So if A influences B; and B also influences A; and they both influence C; then how do you isolate the independent effects of A and B, respectively, on C? Is that basically the issue?

    Sounds like a problem with no definitive solution that must come up in pretty much all multivariate social science analysis.

    It does seem, however, that the following passage indicates an attempt to calculate and remove the confounding effect of GPS on SES. (Although, I suppose an environmentalist would say that presupposes that the causation flows in that direction, and not vice versa).


    At the end of compulsory education at age 16, GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement; controlling for genetic influence on SES reduces its predictive power to 16%.
     

    Haven’t read this paper, but the serious ones in this genre are all very aware of regression pitfalls and take steps to check for them, adjust them, etc.

    We are used to left wing junk science taking advantage of misleading statistical techniques, but it really isn’t a problem in any GWAS study I have seen. I consider every one of their authors to be Our Guys.

    So, I politely request to all here not suggesting they suffer from simple methodological issues unless you are reasonably sure after reading and understanding the paper.

    More productive: social media shares of media stories about these studies.

    Even better: adding them to relevant wikipedia articles

  53. Sometimes people are rich, powerful, and from big name parents, and they still have no idea how to handle money:

    Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Monday that state income tax revenues plummeted by $2.3 billion since he introduced his new budget plan last month — a bombshell that will force him to curb spending.

    Cuomo attributed the revenue drop in December and January largely to the new federal tax code, as well as volatility in the stock market and other uncertainties.

    “That’s a $2.3 billion drop in revenues. That’s as serious as a heart attack. This is worse than we had anticipated,” the governor said in Albany.

    “This reduction must be addressed in this year’s budget.”

    In a rare joint appearance with Cuomo, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli confirmed the deteriorating finances.

    https://nypost.com/2019/02/04/cuomo-announces-income-tax-revenues-have-dropped-by-2-3b/

    JFK figured this out but no Democrat after him has been able to get this.

  54. @Anon
    You're right that it's overwhelmingly genetic. Read Plomin's and Mitchell's books from late last year. Half of "environment" is environment you make or seek out based on your genetic tendencies, and most of the rest is "random" stuff that happens as cells multiply to create your brain, whose plan is in your genome, but much happens on the construction site, so to speak. The latter is not so much genetic as it is "innate." Being left handed or gay is more innate than genetic, in this sense.

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.

    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let’s say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you’re going to prison . But let’s say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest – maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don’t shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.

    • Agree: Prodigal son
    • Replies: @res
    I think you are right. Two additional thoughts.

    1. People choose their peers to some degree. This matters in both directions, so to some degree like is going with like.

    2. Have any studies found a good way to quantify this effect? How much of peer group selection is appearing as part of "unshared environment" (essentially "unexplained")?

    Also, it is important to remember that the studies used to dismiss things like peer group influence generally have fairly homogenous populations. So in your example they would be comparing within Baltimore or within the Midwest. Not many people moving between the two to show how much that does or does not matter.
    , @stillCARealist
    yeah, but the culture as a whole moves on stuff and that impacts teen behavior. My uncle, growing up fatherless in the 50's, vented his rebellion with cigarettes and booze and swearing. Now, a fatherless kid in the same neighborhood finds it in pot/meth/and creepy social media, maybe even experimenting with gender craziness. The clever ones try to learn how to sell stolen goods on the internet.

    We have invented all new ways in which to be bratty and rebel-conformist. None of which contributes to academic success.
    , @Anon
    Yes, but remember we're talking about how your cognitive abilities, personality traits, preferences, political and religious tendencies, social predispositions like shyness and radius of trust, and so on, basically anything considered a "trait," turn out in adulthood. Nothing your parents do can affect these, short of having you raised by wolves.

    Your high school environment does change things. You might live rather than die in a gang shootout because the worst delinquent peers you could track down in your environment if you have a delinquent tendancy might be less dangerous. And obviously your parents from early on give you experiences and memories, and they are the deciding factor for whether you have been cued up to be in line for an Olympic figure skating medal or a Chopin competition prize or learned Chinese as a second language (which require innate talent plus parental pressure).
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Jack, you may have something there. I went to a Catholic boys' school. The majority of my classmate were the sons of blue color workers, with a handful of boys whose dads were insurance men or maybe a salesman. We thought it was cool to compete in the classroom, actually it was expected of us. That's why we were sent to that HS. Tuition, by the way, was $90 per year, payable on an installment plan. Sounds cheap, but my dad probably made less than $150 a week. Sure we pushed the limits on our behavior but we would have been ashamed to have failed at school.
  55. @Peter Frost
    It’s the racial transformation of America that is the rock-bottom issue…not genes that correlate with scores on an IQ test


    Uh, nothing is stopping you from engaging with the real world. And if no one else is doing anything politically in your neck of the woods you can be the first to try and do something. Like run for office. Even if you lose, you'll get the message out.

    Or do you want Steve to do all of the heavy lifting?

    Every local GOP needs volunteers. People and tech skills are both needed.

    • Replies: @Bill
    Indeed, how better to help whites than by volunteering to help the Koch brothers disposses them?
    , @Mr. XYZ
    While you're at it, try to ensure that the GOP stops being corporate whores, will you?
  56. @Anon
    Roughly loc. 2714 on Kindle in "Innate" by Kevin Mitchell:

    "... the genetic architecture of intelligence is likely dominated by 'minus' variants. These are not genes 'for intelligence' -- quite the opposite, in fact. Perhaps what we're really talking about is the genetics of stupidity."

    He refers to the "Platonic ideal" brain that has the "theoretical maximum intelligence."

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.

    This is almost surely wrong. Yes, the cause of depressed IQ (within races) must be defects but probably it’s like anything else – people start out with average IQ and then really extraordinary individuals (or groups) have “beneficial” mutations on top of that. Usain Bolt probably has a mutation that gives him more fast twitch muscle than the average normal or “perfect” person – he is better than perfect if perfect means having the standard set of genes with no mutations. The “perfect” human has genes that will produce an amount of growth hormone that will grow him to around 6′ but Shaquille O’Neal has some mutation that made him grow bigger than “perfect”.

    For example, Ashkenazi Jews are known to suffer from genetic diseases ( Tay-Sachs and Gaucher’s) that are neurological in nature. One copy of the gene is beneficial for intelligence – the mutation increases levels of a chemical that promotes neuronal growth, but two copies is too much of a good thing and you end up with some terrible disease. Even “beneficial” mutations tend to be two-edged swords, which is why everyone doesn’t have them.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/03/science/researchers-say-intelligence-and-diseases-may-be-linked-in.html

  57. @Jack D
    My wife works with learning disabled kids, which to some extent (she would disagree) is a euphemism for "not that bright". A disproportionate % of her patients are adopted. Rich people don't put their kids up for adoption and poor dysfunctional people tend to have dumb kids (that mom maybe drinks or takes drugs during pregnancy doesn't help either). In the old days, you would have college girls get knocked up and put their kids up for adoption (like Steve Jobs) but that doesn't happen anymore with abortion, birth control and no stigma on single motherhood.

    I live in a superzip so these kids get adopted into high achieving families. It is out of the question that they are attending college even if they are as dumb as rocks (excuse me, learning disabled) - almost 100% of the kids in the local schools attend college. It would embarrass the parents if their kid didn't go to college. Not only do they want their kids to attend college, they want them to attend someplace with name brand cachet (maybe their alma mater) even if that isn't the best place for their kids.

    But these kids retain their familial IQ. Some of these kids are clearly not college material and it is wasted on them (some of them have other talents - artistic, musical, etc. but they are just not set up for academic work). If this same kid got adopted into a blue collar family, the family would be more willing to accept that it's OK for the kid not to attend college if she is not really college material. But the rich kid ends up with a degree in some non-STEM area (no way they could hack a STEM program) and a job as a barista. They would have been better off training for a trade.

    No worries, the kids will get government jobs with their BS degrees.

  58. @Jack D

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.
     
    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let's say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you're going to prison . But let's say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest - maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don't shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.

    I think you are right. Two additional thoughts.

    1. People choose their peers to some degree. This matters in both directions, so to some degree like is going with like.

    2. Have any studies found a good way to quantify this effect? How much of peer group selection is appearing as part of “unshared environment” (essentially “unexplained”)?

    Also, it is important to remember that the studies used to dismiss things like peer group influence generally have fairly homogenous populations. So in your example they would be comparing within Baltimore or within the Midwest. Not many people moving between the two to show how much that does or does not matter.

  59. I read Plomin’s book but I already knew about polygenic scoring from Hsu’s blog. It’s a very cool technique. No doubt about it. It acts as a a indicator as to how you you were meant to be. It serves as a bench mark against which you can measure your actual values to see how close you came to your design specifications. It measures among other thing how much your environment has kept you from fulfilling your innate potential.

    I was particularly taken with Plomin’s example of the polygenic scoring in regards to height. There are about a thousand or so SNPs that effect stature. Plomin measured his and found that most pointed to him being tall. He is is fact six foot five. So that seems confirmatory.

    I was a sickly kid. I was always in the hospital and I always missed lots of school days because I was always sick. I always wondered if I was meant by the complement of SNPs in my genome to be taller but I had been compressed by my environment.

    As it happens I grew up to be six four. But I long held this – possibly fantasy – belief that I should have been six seven and my ‘natural’ height had been stunted by constant illnesses. I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.

    So I am pursuing a polygenic score to see if I have been walking around all this time shorter than I should have been.

    • Replies: @Lot
    "Catch up growth" restores most or all of the lost height sick or malnourished children lose.
    , @Jack D

    I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.
     
    Standard door height is 6'-8" but sometimes they get cut down or another floor is laid on top plus your shoes raise you a bit so at 6-7 you either to learn to duck or get your head smacked a lot.
    , @stillCARealist
    so just identify as 6'7". I mean, that's what you feel like on the inside, and your feelings are right. So, just tell people that's what you are and insist that your drivers license proclaim it. You could even get it tattooed onto your forehead so that no one else is confused.
  60. @Pat Boyle
    I read Plomin's book but I already knew about polygenic scoring from Hsu's blog. It's a very cool technique. No doubt about it. It acts as a a indicator as to how you you were meant to be. It serves as a bench mark against which you can measure your actual values to see how close you came to your design specifications. It measures among other thing how much your environment has kept you from fulfilling your innate potential.

    I was particularly taken with Plomin's example of the polygenic scoring in regards to height. There are about a thousand or so SNPs that effect stature. Plomin measured his and found that most pointed to him being tall. He is is fact six foot five. So that seems confirmatory.

    I was a sickly kid. I was always in the hospital and I always missed lots of school days because I was always sick. I always wondered if I was meant by the complement of SNPs in my genome to be taller but I had been compressed by my environment.

    As it happens I grew up to be six four. But I long held this - possibly fantasy - belief that I should have been six seven and my 'natural' height had been stunted by constant illnesses. I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.

    So I am pursuing a polygenic score to see if I have been walking around all this time shorter than I should have been.

    “Catch up growth” restores most or all of the lost height sick or malnourished children lose.

  61. @Jack D
    My wife works with learning disabled kids, which to some extent (she would disagree) is a euphemism for "not that bright". A disproportionate % of her patients are adopted. Rich people don't put their kids up for adoption and poor dysfunctional people tend to have dumb kids (that mom maybe drinks or takes drugs during pregnancy doesn't help either). In the old days, you would have college girls get knocked up and put their kids up for adoption (like Steve Jobs) but that doesn't happen anymore with abortion, birth control and no stigma on single motherhood.

    I live in a superzip so these kids get adopted into high achieving families. It is out of the question that they are attending college even if they are as dumb as rocks (excuse me, learning disabled) - almost 100% of the kids in the local schools attend college. It would embarrass the parents if their kid didn't go to college. Not only do they want their kids to attend college, they want them to attend someplace with name brand cachet (maybe their alma mater) even if that isn't the best place for their kids.

    But these kids retain their familial IQ. Some of these kids are clearly not college material and it is wasted on them (some of them have other talents - artistic, musical, etc. but they are just not set up for academic work). If this same kid got adopted into a blue collar family, the family would be more willing to accept that it's OK for the kid not to attend college if she is not really college material. But the rich kid ends up with a degree in some non-STEM area (no way they could hack a STEM program) and a job as a barista. They would have been better off training for a trade.

    Adoption is like a box of chocolates. In my grad program there was an adopted woman of the reverse origin. She was an unplanned pregnancy born to teenagers in a gifted program/school. She was adopted by a working class father that ran a successful small business. From a young age she outscored all of her siblings and cousins and graduated near the very top of our class.

    I wouldn’t adopt without knowing the biological parents. Anything is possible, but at least you know the bell curve you’re dealing with. Same with your own children.

  62. Jussie Smollett’s “hate crime” injury.

    I’ve had worse scratches from 2 month old kittens. If Smollett were telling the truth, it still isn’t a hate-crime, it’s a dislike-infraction.

    Was the sandwich he held on to during the attack and then took home harmed?

    How high is the average customer at a Chicago Subway at 2am? One oxycotin and two joints?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Could Ariana send some of that healing energy to the Savopoulos family (not that it would help since they were brutally murdered and then their bodies torched)? They could show her pictures of what the family looked like after Daron was done with them, but it would make Ariana vomit, for sure, given that a little scratch causes her to have conniptions. Or maybe not, because they were the wrong race.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6658625/DC-Mansion-Murders-killer-shows-no-remorse-hes-sentenced-life-prison.html

    Does this look like an immigrant who brought joy to America?

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/02/01/18/9286144-6658625-image-a-34_1549046800631.jpg

    Is brutal torture, robbery and murder a job Americans won't do?

    By the way, it seems unlikely that Wint did this on his own, but no one else has been charged. Wint himself implicated his half brother and stepbrother. WTH?
    , @Anon
    Even Scorpio took it more seriously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvAs1pos3TA
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Lot, Is he smirking in the photo on the right? A smirk will get you slapped upside the head every time. Every one knows that.
    , @Svigor
    Ten bucks sez the sandwich was just an old hand's cover for a prostitution/drugs/publicity stunt run. Rich guy leaves fancy hotel in -20 degree weather for Subway?

    No.

  63. @Pat Boyle
    I read Plomin's book but I already knew about polygenic scoring from Hsu's blog. It's a very cool technique. No doubt about it. It acts as a a indicator as to how you you were meant to be. It serves as a bench mark against which you can measure your actual values to see how close you came to your design specifications. It measures among other thing how much your environment has kept you from fulfilling your innate potential.

    I was particularly taken with Plomin's example of the polygenic scoring in regards to height. There are about a thousand or so SNPs that effect stature. Plomin measured his and found that most pointed to him being tall. He is is fact six foot five. So that seems confirmatory.

    I was a sickly kid. I was always in the hospital and I always missed lots of school days because I was always sick. I always wondered if I was meant by the complement of SNPs in my genome to be taller but I had been compressed by my environment.

    As it happens I grew up to be six four. But I long held this - possibly fantasy - belief that I should have been six seven and my 'natural' height had been stunted by constant illnesses. I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.

    So I am pursuing a polygenic score to see if I have been walking around all this time shorter than I should have been.

    I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.

    Standard door height is 6′-8″ but sometimes they get cut down or another floor is laid on top plus your shoes raise you a bit so at 6-7 you either to learn to duck or get your head smacked a lot.

  64. OT:

    Army prepping for large scale urban insurrection in LA:

    https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-army-training-20190204-story.html

    “Training….”…right, right….

    Yes, those are Apaches and Little Birds (of Black Hawk Down infamy) flying around Wilshire Boulevard at 3 or 4 AM.

  65. @Lot
    Jussie Smollett's "hate crime" injury.

    https://www.thesun.ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/AD-COMPOSITE-Jussie-2-1.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=1200&h=800&crop=1

    I've had worse scratches from 2 month old kittens. If Smollett were telling the truth, it still isn't a hate-crime, it's a dislike-infraction.

    Was the sandwich he held on to during the attack and then took home harmed?

    How high is the average customer at a Chicago Subway at 2am? One oxycotin and two joints?

    Could Ariana send some of that healing energy to the Savopoulos family (not that it would help since they were brutally murdered and then their bodies torched)? They could show her pictures of what the family looked like after Daron was done with them, but it would make Ariana vomit, for sure, given that a little scratch causes her to have conniptions. Or maybe not, because they were the wrong race.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6658625/DC-Mansion-Murders-killer-shows-no-remorse-hes-sentenced-life-prison.html

    Does this look like an immigrant who brought joy to America?

    Is brutal torture, robbery and murder a job Americans won’t do?

    By the way, it seems unlikely that Wint did this on his own, but no one else has been charged. Wint himself implicated his half brother and stepbrother. WTH?

    • Replies: @istevefan
    I had forgotten about that family. The murder happened in 2015, but he is just being sentenced in 2019?
  66. I got a polygenic height score from dna.land and it got my height exactly right. They also have a polygenic intelligence score. You can upload data from 23andme and other similar services.

  67. When will they come for black voice? White people trying to talk or sing black?

    Or black butt? White people shaking their butts like black women?

  68. @Lot
    Jussie Smollett's "hate crime" injury.

    https://www.thesun.ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/AD-COMPOSITE-Jussie-2-1.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=1200&h=800&crop=1

    I've had worse scratches from 2 month old kittens. If Smollett were telling the truth, it still isn't a hate-crime, it's a dislike-infraction.

    Was the sandwich he held on to during the attack and then took home harmed?

    How high is the average customer at a Chicago Subway at 2am? One oxycotin and two joints?

    Even Scorpio took it more seriously.

  69. @Jack D

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.
     
    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let's say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you're going to prison . But let's say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest - maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don't shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.

    yeah, but the culture as a whole moves on stuff and that impacts teen behavior. My uncle, growing up fatherless in the 50’s, vented his rebellion with cigarettes and booze and swearing. Now, a fatherless kid in the same neighborhood finds it in pot/meth/and creepy social media, maybe even experimenting with gender craziness. The clever ones try to learn how to sell stolen goods on the internet.

    We have invented all new ways in which to be bratty and rebel-conformist. None of which contributes to academic success.

  70. If only there were some way to tell who the wierdos are …

  71. @Pat Boyle
    I read Plomin's book but I already knew about polygenic scoring from Hsu's blog. It's a very cool technique. No doubt about it. It acts as a a indicator as to how you you were meant to be. It serves as a bench mark against which you can measure your actual values to see how close you came to your design specifications. It measures among other thing how much your environment has kept you from fulfilling your innate potential.

    I was particularly taken with Plomin's example of the polygenic scoring in regards to height. There are about a thousand or so SNPs that effect stature. Plomin measured his and found that most pointed to him being tall. He is is fact six foot five. So that seems confirmatory.

    I was a sickly kid. I was always in the hospital and I always missed lots of school days because I was always sick. I always wondered if I was meant by the complement of SNPs in my genome to be taller but I had been compressed by my environment.

    As it happens I grew up to be six four. But I long held this - possibly fantasy - belief that I should have been six seven and my 'natural' height had been stunted by constant illnesses. I once wore some elevator shoes which made me six seven. It felt not just good but right.

    So I am pursuing a polygenic score to see if I have been walking around all this time shorter than I should have been.

    so just identify as 6’7″. I mean, that’s what you feel like on the inside, and your feelings are right. So, just tell people that’s what you are and insist that your drivers license proclaim it. You could even get it tattooed onto your forehead so that no one else is confused.

  72. Anon[713] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.
     
    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let's say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you're going to prison . But let's say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest - maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don't shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.

    Yes, but remember we’re talking about how your cognitive abilities, personality traits, preferences, political and religious tendencies, social predispositions like shyness and radius of trust, and so on, basically anything considered a “trait,” turn out in adulthood. Nothing your parents do can affect these, short of having you raised by wolves.

    Your high school environment does change things. You might live rather than die in a gang shootout because the worst delinquent peers you could track down in your environment if you have a delinquent tendancy might be less dangerous. And obviously your parents from early on give you experiences and memories, and they are the deciding factor for whether you have been cued up to be in line for an Olympic figure skating medal or a Chopin competition prize or learned Chinese as a second language (which require innate talent plus parental pressure).

  73. Anon[713] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Roughly loc. 2714 on Kindle in "Innate" by Kevin Mitchell:

    "... the genetic architecture of intelligence is likely dominated by 'minus' variants. These are not genes 'for intelligence' -- quite the opposite, in fact. Perhaps what we're really talking about is the genetics of stupidity."

    He refers to the "Platonic ideal" brain that has the "theoretical maximum intelligence."

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.

    I think we’re talking at cross purposes here. Of course evolution and natural selection have increased intelligence, which is why we are more intelligent than chimps, and evolution continues today. The Jewish example, if true, is a good example of how large mutations usually kill or render infertile their host, but sometimes don’t and stick around because of good effects in addition to the bad.

    But within the population of contemporary white Americans, for instance, minus theory explains the cognitive bell curve, among contemporary white Americans.

    Mitchell avoids race here and has the standard weasel statement:

    We know that differences in nutrition, general health, and education can all stongly influence IQ scores. The fact that such socioeconomic differences exist across ethnic categories in the Uniteed States thus suggests a plausible explanation — at least as likey as, and indeed, more parsimonious than, invoking underlying genetic differences.

    So rampant hunger, scurvy, rickets, beri-beri, and being banned from education is the cause of cognitive gaps for blacks. Nothing to see here. Run along. “Parsimonious” is a master touch. I like that. The synonomous “niggardly” would have been in bad taste.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    So rampant hunger, scurvy, rickets, beri-beri, and being banned from education is the cause of cognitive gaps for blacks.

    Zion Williamson, 18 year old freshman power forward at Duke, is 6'7" and 285 pounds. He makes Lebron James look emaciated.

  74. From bioRxiv:

    I liked her better when she fronted the Sugarcubes.

  75. @res


    I’d be interested in hearing more about the group that has low GPS but high SES. Who are these people and how well do they perform?
     
    This has already been featured in the Unz Review. We already know. The children of blacks who have obtained high SES due to affirmative action handouts tend not to repeat their parents SES performance.
     
    Although I agree with your overall point, it does not apply here. This study is European ancestry only. Which returns us to Cloudbuster's original question. I would nominate multi-generation inherited wealth. Any other proposals?

    It is always worth remembering that EA (Educational Attainment, here years of education) is an imperfect metric of accomplishment. Especially in a country with widespread college attendance by the marginally competent. A PhD in grievance studies is worth more than an Engineering bachelors or a practical technical study like being an electrician.

    What Hypnotoad said.

    Plus, I’ve seen some examples of families who are essentially illiterate but they have “awesome social skills”; a preternatural knack for managing money; and an exceptional work ethic.

  76. @Jack D
    My wife works with learning disabled kids, which to some extent (she would disagree) is a euphemism for "not that bright". A disproportionate % of her patients are adopted. Rich people don't put their kids up for adoption and poor dysfunctional people tend to have dumb kids (that mom maybe drinks or takes drugs during pregnancy doesn't help either). In the old days, you would have college girls get knocked up and put their kids up for adoption (like Steve Jobs) but that doesn't happen anymore with abortion, birth control and no stigma on single motherhood.

    I live in a superzip so these kids get adopted into high achieving families. It is out of the question that they are attending college even if they are as dumb as rocks (excuse me, learning disabled) - almost 100% of the kids in the local schools attend college. It would embarrass the parents if their kid didn't go to college. Not only do they want their kids to attend college, they want them to attend someplace with name brand cachet (maybe their alma mater) even if that isn't the best place for their kids.

    But these kids retain their familial IQ. Some of these kids are clearly not college material and it is wasted on them (some of them have other talents - artistic, musical, etc. but they are just not set up for academic work). If this same kid got adopted into a blue collar family, the family would be more willing to accept that it's OK for the kid not to attend college if she is not really college material. But the rich kid ends up with a degree in some non-STEM area (no way they could hack a STEM program) and a job as a barista. They would have been better off training for a trade.

    Rich people don’t put their kids up for adoption

    They once put their grandkids up for adoption in the event those were sired by the colored chauffeur. Cf. I Shared the Dream, by MLK’s mistress.

    Of course, if you were really rich, you could afford little Debbie’s airfare to San Juan for an unraided, if nominally illegal, abortion.

  77. @Lot
    Every local GOP needs volunteers. People and tech skills are both needed.

    Indeed, how better to help whites than by volunteering to help the Koch brothers disposses them?

  78. First they identify “7,363,646 genotyped and well-imputed SNPs” and then “to ease high computational demands of the software” they use 515,100 SNPs to construct the polygenic score.

    Half a million SNPs can explain 14% of variance. Are they sure that the remaining 6.5 million of SNPs can be ignored?

    Note that Hsu used up to 10,000 SNPs on much larger sample and could explain 9% of educational attainment. The authors here increased the number of SNPs by factor of 50 and yet they could only add mere 5% of explained variance and on a very small sample (5,000 subjects).

    I guess that the 6.5 million of SNPs that they ignored are not likely to add much to the explanatory power the GPS.

    I have noticed that in several studies the education attainment had a slightly better correlations with GPS than IQ test scores. This is clearly counterintuitive.

    Things are not really looking good for explaining the missing heritability gap. Or perhaps there is no gap. Perhaps the critics of twins studies were right that the derived heritability in twin studies are inflated.

    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    Regarding your remark "I have noticed that in several studies the education attainment had a slightly better correlation with GPS than IQ test scores. This is clearly counterintuitive."

    On the contrary, this is strongly intuitive, not counterintuitive. The GPS is fitted to educational attainment, not to IQ. This is due to large-scale data availability of EA versus IQ test results. Virtually all clinical DNA sample questionnaires include the simple question "how many years of schooling did you complete?". This allows the construction of an EA phenotype for sample sizes of more than 1 million. It would be prohibitively expensive to collate a sample of 1 million DNA samples together with an IQ test result for each person in the sample.

    EA is not identical to IQ as a phenotype. Staying in school is correlated with IQ, but far from identical to it.
  79. @Jack D

    The old Judith Rich Harris idea of high school peer group influence is obsolete.
     
    I think this is true only to a limited extent. Let's say you are a black kid born to a ghetto mom. If you grow up in the projects in Baltimore, your bad genetic tendencies turn you into a gang member who deals drugs and shoots people and eventually you're going to prison . But let's say your mom ODs and you get sent to live with your grandma in a small town in the Midwest - maybe the roughest crowd in town (to which you are naturally attracted) drinks and does graffiti, but they don't shoot rival gang members. So who your peers are does influence your outcome to some extent.

    Jack, you may have something there. I went to a Catholic boys’ school. The majority of my classmate were the sons of blue color workers, with a handful of boys whose dads were insurance men or maybe a salesman. We thought it was cool to compete in the classroom, actually it was expected of us. That’s why we were sent to that HS. Tuition, by the way, was $90 per year, payable on an installment plan. Sounds cheap, but my dad probably made less than $150 a week. Sure we pushed the limits on our behavior but we would have been ashamed to have failed at school.

  80. You can’t predict things accurately if folks lie on government documents and then specifically say they didn’t.
    https://postimg.cc/WD63mjqy

  81. @Lot
    Jussie Smollett's "hate crime" injury.

    https://www.thesun.ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/AD-COMPOSITE-Jussie-2-1.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=1200&h=800&crop=1

    I've had worse scratches from 2 month old kittens. If Smollett were telling the truth, it still isn't a hate-crime, it's a dislike-infraction.

    Was the sandwich he held on to during the attack and then took home harmed?

    How high is the average customer at a Chicago Subway at 2am? One oxycotin and two joints?

    Lot, Is he smirking in the photo on the right? A smirk will get you slapped upside the head every time. Every one knows that.

  82. OT: Look what WaPo dredged up on Elizabeth Warren

    • Replies: @Lot
    Transracial pride!

    This is a tears of a clown joke. I've lost $30 on my Warren wins Dem nomination bet. Probably time to cut my loss.

    1-drop only applies if you are Ben Jelous, applying for a gaming license near a major city, or Talcum X.
  83. @Jack D
    Could Ariana send some of that healing energy to the Savopoulos family (not that it would help since they were brutally murdered and then their bodies torched)? They could show her pictures of what the family looked like after Daron was done with them, but it would make Ariana vomit, for sure, given that a little scratch causes her to have conniptions. Or maybe not, because they were the wrong race.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6658625/DC-Mansion-Murders-killer-shows-no-remorse-hes-sentenced-life-prison.html

    Does this look like an immigrant who brought joy to America?

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/02/01/18/9286144-6658625-image-a-34_1549046800631.jpg

    Is brutal torture, robbery and murder a job Americans won't do?

    By the way, it seems unlikely that Wint did this on his own, but no one else has been charged. Wint himself implicated his half brother and stepbrother. WTH?

    I had forgotten about that family. The murder happened in 2015, but he is just being sentenced in 2019?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Yes, he went to trial and was sentenced just last week.
  84. @anonymous

    GPS and SES respectively predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement.
     
    This doesn't seem to be as high as expected?

    Usually “explained variance” is the R-squared. The R-squared is the square of the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values. So for example 16% explained variance would mean 40% correlation between actual and predicted values. That’s not so bad in social science when you’re trying to predict noisy (and flawed) outcomes like educational attainment. There are lots of things like restriction of range and measurement issues that can obscure predictive power,

    Note this part:

    In children who have high GPS and come from high SES families, 77% go to university, whereas 21% of children with low GPS and from low SES backgrounds attend university.

    Both of those have “low” R-squared values. Yet you see a pretty dramatic range from high end to low end.

  85. WTF I love JPod now:

    Kudos for honesty, JDude.

  86. @Lot
    Jussie Smollett's "hate crime" injury.

    https://www.thesun.ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/AD-COMPOSITE-Jussie-2-1.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=1200&h=800&crop=1

    I've had worse scratches from 2 month old kittens. If Smollett were telling the truth, it still isn't a hate-crime, it's a dislike-infraction.

    Was the sandwich he held on to during the attack and then took home harmed?

    How high is the average customer at a Chicago Subway at 2am? One oxycotin and two joints?

    Ten bucks sez the sandwich was just an old hand’s cover for a prostitution/drugs/publicity stunt run. Rich guy leaves fancy hotel in -20 degree weather for Subway?

    No.

    • Replies: @Lot
    "Rich guy leaves fancy hotel in -20 degree weather for Subway?"

    https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.54308664.6726/flat,1000x1000,075,f.u2.jpg


    https://zenpype.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/munchies-when-stoned.jpg
  87. Every time I read one these articles that finally, definitively makes the case that genetics rules, one is constantly disappointed.

    In this case more obvious than some others, but remains a staple of modeling problems is the inability to separate out the home environment from inherent biology. In other words, get Frank’s parents well bred, highly intelligent, high IQ parents from Evanston to drop him off in say, Tanzania as a 6 month old. Allow him to be raised by the least fortunate, least educated, lowest IQ couple one can find and routinely test him or Francine (if one thinks mammary glands matter).

    Engage that same simple model numerous enough time to matter as a generalized principle and record the results. Now all samples must conform to that initial model (as if that were possible) and it must conform in every manner.

    Ohhh, I am fully aware of the several thousand SNP’s thus far located. Only a tad more to get the the billion or so left, not mention their combinations and processes.

    I am cautious about Holistic theories, however, for food for thought, I reccommend the documentary film, “Heal”

  88. @istevefan
    I had forgotten about that family. The murder happened in 2015, but he is just being sentenced in 2019?

    Yes, he went to trial and was sentenced just last week.

    • Replies: @stillCARealist
    Why didn't they go for the death penalty? He sounds like a perfect candidate for it.
  89. I am watching some of the SOTU address. Pelosi is right behind Trump. I can’t tell whether she is smirking, falling asleep or about to have a stroke. That’s a bad look for the democrats. She is continuously in the shot, and is not very appealing.

  90. In reference to the film, this audience might pay particular comments and observationists by the trained scientists participating as they discuss genetics.

  91. The SOTU speech is nauseating. Nothing but twaddle about how great everything is for everyone but white males (ie, the suckers that voted for him) and how he wants more immigration than ever as long as it’s legal. Consider me black pilled on this tool.

  92. Just noticed 23andme has a reaction speed test that they ask you to take.

    These commercial DNA companies are delving into more verboten areas than ancestry.

    • Replies: @Lot
    That's great news, can't wait to see studies based on this.
  93. @Anonymous
    OT: Look what WaPo dredged up on Elizabeth Warren

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyrrpiyUwAAMI5e.jpg

    Transracial pride!

    This is a tears of a clown joke. I’ve lost $30 on my Warren wins Dem nomination bet. Probably time to cut my loss.

    1-drop only applies if you are Ben Jelous, applying for a gaming license near a major city, or Talcum X.

  94. @songbird
    Just noticed 23andme has a reaction speed test that they ask you to take.

    These commercial DNA companies are delving into more verboten areas than ancestry.

    That’s great news, can’t wait to see studies based on this.

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
    They are using a new chip too, supposed to have more non-white SNPs. Ostensibly for ancestry.
  95. @Svigor
    Ten bucks sez the sandwich was just an old hand's cover for a prostitution/drugs/publicity stunt run. Rich guy leaves fancy hotel in -20 degree weather for Subway?

    No.

    “Rich guy leaves fancy hotel in -20 degree weather for Subway?”

  96. @Jus' Sayin'...
    You are ignoring the issue of multicollinearity raised by Tyrion 2. Conceptually, if two or more independent variables in a regression equation are related to one another, the estimates of their individual effects on the dependent variable are unstable and cannot be disentangled from one another. Mathematically, if the determinant of the correlation matrix (among the independent variables) is small, as is the case with collinear independent variables, one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error), meaning that estimates of betas are unstable and subject to high standard errors.

    one is essentially dividing by zero (allowing for estimation error)

    True, so you have to hire Chuck Norris to solve the problem. Only Chuck can divide by zero.

  97. @Hodag
    Arnold Schwarzenegger's kid with the maid?

    Arnold Schwarzenegger’s kid with the maid?

    Please provide data.

  98. @Svigor
    https://i.redd.it/2h2h3irrpkc21.jpg

    God Damn Dan Levin. I pray that Dan Levin will die before you read this post, and that he will swim in the Lake.

    Tomorrow I will fast, and then I shall pray that Dan Levin will be held to account. And BTW did I mention that I am offering supplication to the Almighty for Dan Levin to be cast into outer darkness?

    To quote Richard M. Nixon: “God Damn him.”

  99. @Anon
    I think we're talking at cross purposes here. Of course evolution and natural selection have increased intelligence, which is why we are more intelligent than chimps, and evolution continues today. The Jewish example, if true, is a good example of how large mutations usually kill or render infertile their host, but sometimes don't and stick around because of good effects in addition to the bad.

    But within the population of contemporary white Americans, for instance, minus theory explains the cognitive bell curve, among contemporary white Americans.

    Mitchell avoids race here and has the standard weasel statement:


    We know that differences in nutrition, general health, and education can all stongly influence IQ scores. The fact that such socioeconomic differences exist across ethnic categories in the Uniteed States thus suggests a plausible explanation -- at least as likey as, and indeed, more parsimonious than, invoking underlying genetic differences.
     
    So rampant hunger, scurvy, rickets, beri-beri, and being banned from education is the cause of cognitive gaps for blacks. Nothing to see here. Run along. "Parsimonious" is a master touch. I like that. The synonomous "niggardly" would have been in bad taste.

    So rampant hunger, scurvy, rickets, beri-beri, and being banned from education is the cause of cognitive gaps for blacks.

    Zion Williamson, 18 year old freshman power forward at Duke, is 6’7″ and 285 pounds. He makes Lebron James look emaciated.

  100. @Buffalo Joe
    bo, Poor people are given free education, partial or full housing and sustainable free food. Their children are now bundled off to Head Start or pre-K as early as age 3. The children are then given free breakfast and lunch. Their older siblings are also given free lunch and in some cases free breakfast. What is wrong with you? Who needs a fancy job? All of this is reparations that are unappreciated. P.S. The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained. Teachers don't want to clean then and change, neither do aides. Solution? Send them to the school nurse.

    The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained.

    Since this is really just a symptom of our nation’s headlong descent into third-world status, we should just let the kids go naked, and hose down the classrooms once a week. No one’s quite ready to address the underlying issue: third-world habits are generally suited to equatorial latitudes where it doesn’t get as cold as Buffalo or Minneapolis.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Mr. M., great solution, but Buffalo's union teachers won't work a hose. Maybe need a fireman to come in and hose down the rooms.
  101. @Lot
    That's great news, can't wait to see studies based on this.

    They are using a new chip too, supposed to have more non-white SNPs. Ostensibly for ancestry.

  102. @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing.

    I’d nominate this one:

    Isaac Newton explaining why he published so much of his work anonymously: “Public esteem, were I able to acquire and maintain it…would perhaps increase my acquaintance, the thing which I chiefly study to decline.”

    Trying to find that one indicates that this is now the most famous Newton quote:

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    We build to many walls and not enough bridges.

    Some random man from before women could vote

     

    ...


    Community gathers to watch 950-ton bridge move across Southwest 8th Street

    It’s very important for me as a woman and an engineer to be able to promote that to my daughter, because I think women have a different perspective. We’re able to put in an artistic touch and we’re able to build, too.

     

  103. @Lot
    Every local GOP needs volunteers. People and tech skills are both needed.

    While you’re at it, try to ensure that the GOP stops being corporate whores, will you?

    • Replies: @Lot
    Sorry, thats what you get with a two party system. Take it up with James Madison
  104. @Mr. XYZ
    While you're at it, try to ensure that the GOP stops being corporate whores, will you?

    Sorry, thats what you get with a two party system. Take it up with James Madison

  105. @utu
    First they identify "7,363,646 genotyped and well-imputed SNPs" and then "to ease high computational demands of the software" they use 515,100 SNPs to construct the polygenic score.

    Half a million SNPs can explain 14% of variance. Are they sure that the remaining 6.5 million of SNPs can be ignored?

    Note that Hsu used up to 10,000 SNPs on much larger sample and could explain 9% of educational attainment. The authors here increased the number of SNPs by factor of 50 and yet they could only add mere 5% of explained variance and on a very small sample (5,000 subjects).

    I guess that the 6.5 million of SNPs that they ignored are not likely to add much to the explanatory power the GPS.

    I have noticed that in several studies the education attainment had a slightly better correlations with GPS than IQ test scores. This is clearly counterintuitive.

    Things are not really looking good for explaining the missing heritability gap. Or perhaps there is no gap. Perhaps the critics of twins studies were right that the derived heritability in twin studies are inflated.

    Regarding your remark “I have noticed that in several studies the education attainment had a slightly better correlation with GPS than IQ test scores. This is clearly counterintuitive.”

    On the contrary, this is strongly intuitive, not counterintuitive. The GPS is fitted to educational attainment, not to IQ. This is due to large-scale data availability of EA versus IQ test results. Virtually all clinical DNA sample questionnaires include the simple question “how many years of schooling did you complete?”. This allows the construction of an EA phenotype for sample sizes of more than 1 million. It would be prohibitively expensive to collate a sample of 1 million DNA samples together with an IQ test result for each person in the sample.

    EA is not identical to IQ as a phenotype. Staying in school is correlated with IQ, but far from identical to it.

    • Replies: @utu
    Good explanation. Thanks.

    The problem mathematically is severely undetermined. For any sequence of random numbers as a synthetic phenotype one can find a subset among 10 millions of SNPs that will produce a polygenic score that will correlate with that random numbers sequence. Overfitting and spurious correlation problem. The only way they can check against it is via independent validation sample but this not full proof either.
  106. @AnotherDad

    Basically, a perfect brain, made from a mutation-free sperm and egg (from Adam and Eve?), which combine with no transcription errors, and then divide without incurring any mutations, and which build a symmetrical, perfectly wired-up fetal brain with no left turns or mistakes, will have the Platonic upper limit IQ, whatever that might be. The realities of mutations and developmental errors, and what they are precisely, give us real-world IQs.
     
    Don't know whether he says this or thinks this, but i'm confident it's profoundly wrong.

    What would be a "perfect brain"? No such thing. Our mental capabilities have been under continuous evolution--just like everything else.

    It's quite clear from the differences we see between races, ethnic groups, even family lines stretching hundreds of years, as well as just basic common sense, that mutation has thrown up new variants that some people have allowing them to build better/faster/more-flexible/more-capacious brains than our ancestors did.

    A simple "harmful mutation" model doesn't account for any of the group differences we observe. Deleterious mutuations are continually washing out both via selection or sub-functioning humans, but also through collisions creating useless non-functioning humans. And those would wash out and be re-introducted pretty human randomly--not favoring particular racial\ethnic groups and particular families.

    No, some people/peoples have--through selection--more of these postive\enhancing variants and that is most of what is driving IQ differences. Mutational issues are simply a general "hazy" depression on top of this large pattern of evolved enhanced mental capability in humans, super-charged by the emergence of mentally taxing civilization.

    This is not new stuff. Stephen Hsu has discussed the minus versus plus theories of intelligence on his blog. It just seems like the evidence is supporting the minus theory at this point.

    By the way, as expected Mitchell mostly sidesteps race.

    Not buying it.

    Note: not saying negative mutations aren’t a “hazy depression” on mental functioning, i’m sure they are. (My “hazy depression” i think is pretty good verbiage for it.)

    But a “minus” model as fundamental essentially assumes that all (or most) of the “positive” variants we have essentially reached fixation at least within a “population group”. This isn’t even true of something like adult lactose tolerance, which is pretty darn old and pretty darn useful.

    In contrast common, sense suggests that civilization–pretty darn new–has been increasing the payoff to exhanced/extended/difference modes of mental processing and new variants would be getting their “test drive” right now. The example of the Ashkenazi who–all the evidence suggests–became radically smarter during the last 1000 years of middle-man-minority work, suggests the speed and demand. And the selective environment for Europeans–ex. the payoff for literacy–has been moving quickly over just the past few hundred years. No, there are plenty of variants out there–in Euros but no doubt in other civilized peoples–that are recent, not fixed and affect the efficiency and capability of our brains–i.e. “smarts”.

    This focus on the “minus” thing to me is apiece with not mentioning race–another bit of left-creationisn. There’s a genetic template that was set back in the mists of time, but some pieces of it get hit by mutation so sure we all varying a bit. Just more denial of what Cochran+Harpending called the 10,000 year explosion–i.e. that the fast changes that humans have been making in their own environment have speeded evolution up.

  107. @Jack D
    Yes, he went to trial and was sentenced just last week.

    Why didn’t they go for the death penalty? He sounds like a perfect candidate for it.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    No death penalty in DC.
  108. We find that the effects of GPS and SES are primarily additive, suggesting that their joint impact is particularly dramatic for children at the extreme ends of the distribution.

    Breitbart was born in Los Angeles, California, on February 1, 1969.[7] He was the adopted son of Gerald and Arlene Breitbart, a restaurant owner and banker respectively, and grew up in the affluent neighborhood of Brentwood, Los Angeles.[8] He was adopted at three weeks old and raised Jewish.[9] His biological parents had been Irish American.[8] He said that his birth certificate indicated his biological father was a folk singer. His adoptive mother had converted to Judaism when marrying his adoptive father.[10][11] Breitbart studied at Hebrew school and had a Bar Mitzvah.[12] Theologically he was an agnostic.[10]

  109. @Mr McKenna

    The Buffalo School District is now experiencing a problem with pre-K kids who are not potty trained.
     
    Since this is really just a symptom of our nation's headlong descent into third-world status, we should just let the kids go naked, and hose down the classrooms once a week. No one's quite ready to address the underlying issue: third-world habits are generally suited to equatorial latitudes where it doesn't get as cold as Buffalo or Minneapolis.

    Mr. M., great solution, but Buffalo’s union teachers won’t work a hose. Maybe need a fireman to come in and hose down the rooms.

    • LOL: Mr McKenna
  110. @stillCARealist
    Why didn't they go for the death penalty? He sounds like a perfect candidate for it.

    No death penalty in DC.

  111. @Mr McKenna

    What would be a “perfect brain”? No such thing.
     
    I'd nominate this one:

    Isaac Newton explaining why he published so much of his work anonymously: “Public esteem, were I able to acquire and maintain it…would perhaps increase my acquaintance, the thing which I chiefly study to decline.”

    Trying to find that one indicates that this is now the most famous Newton quote:

    https://www.brainyquote.com/photos_tr/en/i/isaacnewton/129998/isaacnewton1-2x.jpg

    We build to many walls and not enough bridges.

    Some random man from before women could vote

    Community gathers to watch 950-ton bridge move across Southwest 8th Street

    It’s very important for me as a woman and an engineer to be able to promote that to my daughter, because I think women have a different perspective. We’re able to put in an artistic touch and we’re able to build, too.

  112. @Peter Johnson
    Regarding your remark "I have noticed that in several studies the education attainment had a slightly better correlation with GPS than IQ test scores. This is clearly counterintuitive."

    On the contrary, this is strongly intuitive, not counterintuitive. The GPS is fitted to educational attainment, not to IQ. This is due to large-scale data availability of EA versus IQ test results. Virtually all clinical DNA sample questionnaires include the simple question "how many years of schooling did you complete?". This allows the construction of an EA phenotype for sample sizes of more than 1 million. It would be prohibitively expensive to collate a sample of 1 million DNA samples together with an IQ test result for each person in the sample.

    EA is not identical to IQ as a phenotype. Staying in school is correlated with IQ, but far from identical to it.

    Good explanation. Thanks.

    The problem mathematically is severely undetermined. For any sequence of random numbers as a synthetic phenotype one can find a subset among 10 millions of SNPs that will produce a polygenic score that will correlate with that random numbers sequence. Overfitting and spurious correlation problem. The only way they can check against it is via independent validation sample but this not full proof either.

    • Replies: @res

    The only way they can check against it is via independent validation sample but this not full proof either.
     
    What would you consider full proof here? A voice coming down from the heavens? Do you have any idea of the probability of a validation sample giving confirmation if the PGS is not strongly related to the trait?
  113. @utu
    Good explanation. Thanks.

    The problem mathematically is severely undetermined. For any sequence of random numbers as a synthetic phenotype one can find a subset among 10 millions of SNPs that will produce a polygenic score that will correlate with that random numbers sequence. Overfitting and spurious correlation problem. The only way they can check against it is via independent validation sample but this not full proof either.

    The only way they can check against it is via independent validation sample but this not full proof either.

    What would you consider full proof here? A voice coming down from the heavens? Do you have any idea of the probability of a validation sample giving confirmation if the PGS is not strongly related to the trait?

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