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Before the Iowa caucus kicked off the political year, Trump supporters figured that Trump would do better than his polls indicated because a lot of people probably would think it imprudent to publicly admit to a stranger that you are intending to do something so widely deplored. But then Trump underperformed in the semi-public Iowa caucuses and the conventional wisdom soon solidified that Trump does no better than his polls.
Audacious Epigone, however, points out that the conventional wisdom wound up being wrong: Trump out-performed his polls by 2.6 points on average (that’s about 6% or 7%). He outperformed the polls in 26 out of 36 states.
Over the last 15 states, Trump beat his polls in 14 of them, for an average of 5.4 points better than the polls predicted. Trump’s biggest over-performance came in the last primary, Indiana.
So, 2.6 points or even 5.4 points probably aren’t enough to close the current gap with Hillary, but it suggests that the future is unwritten.