The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Only 0.5% of Racial Self-Identifications Are Completely Wrong Genetically
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information


Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

We are often told that Science has proven that “there is hardly any connection between genes and race.” But in reality, 21st Century genomics has shown that most Americans’ self-identifications of their own race (what the Census uses) are fairly reasonable.

iSteve commenter Genome Voyager writes:

Race and ethnicity are overwhelmingly correlated with genetic ancestry in the United States. Recent, large-scale studies of ~11,000 cancer patients and ~202,000 military veterans found that individuals’ self-identified race and ethnicity showed 95.6% (cancer) and 99.5% (veterans) correspondence to genetic ancestry clusters.

Yuan et al. (2018) Cancer Cell. 34: 549–560

Fang et al. (2019) Am J Hum Genet. 105:763-772

You can read the full PDF of Fang’s 2019 paper here.

Among nearly 202,000 individuals with SIRE [Self-Identifying Race/Ethnicity], 1,079 (0.53%) had GIA [Genetically Inferred Ancestry] strongly indicating a different racial/ethnic group.

So, 0.53% of these U.S. military veterans’ self-identified race/ethnicity (using four “continental-scale” race/ethnicities used by the US Census: white, black, Asian, and Hispanic) appeared to be extremely wrong from genome scans. The could be typos or adoptees or cuckoos eggs or whatever.

A somewhat larger percentage of self-identifications would be arguable from the genetic data but not ridiculous like the 0.53%.

For example, Barack Obama self-identified on the 2010 Census as only Black. Genetically, it would have been more accurate for him to self-identify as both Black and White, but it’s not ridiculous for him to put down only Black.

Is 0.53% a big number or a small number?

Hide 101 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. Anonymous[389] • Disclaimer says:

    I would assume the cancer cohort contains a higher proportion of hispanics

  2. newrouter says:

    0.00053 a big number or no?

    • Replies: @newrouter
  3. In a related story,

    Airbnb bans ‘party houses’ after California shooting kills 5

    ORINDA, Calif. (AP) — Airbnb’s CEO said the company was taking actions against unauthorized parties in the wake of a deadly shooting at a Halloween party held at an Airbnb rental home in California. In a series of tweets, Brian Chesky said Saturday the San Francisco-based company is expanding manual screening of “high risk” reservations and will remove guests who fail to comply with policies banning parties at Airbnb rental homes.

    The Disparate Impact lawsuit writes itself!

  4. 53 out of 10,000 is a small number and would easily fit into the margin of error for most things, but you know that already.

    It is not even worth wondering about.

    Take any random group of ten-thousand people, and there will probably be more than that many who are bat shit crazy.

    • Agree: theMann
    • Replies: @reactionry
  5. res says:

    Figure 2 provides a good look at the PCA locations of the mismatch cases. There are a number of genetic white/black Hispanics counted as misidentified. With white Hispanics being the biggest “error” group. There are also a number of genetic blacks and Hispanics identifying as white. Also what seems to me a surprising number of genetic whites identifying as black.

    It would be interesting to see what proportion of the mismatches are legitimate error versus Elizabeth Warren types.

    This is also a very interesting paper for a couple more reasons.

    1. It serves as a status marker for the MVP (Million Veteran Program).

    While earlier studies focused on populations of predominantly European descent, recent efforts have aimed to substantially expand racial and ethnic diversity. The Million Veterans Program1 (MVP) represents a multi-ethnic cohort, which has enrolled more than 750,000 veteran volunteers, completed genotyping in more than 350,000 participants to date, and includes a wealth of phenotypes and health outcomes.

    2. They include a multi-ethnic height GWAS.

    Using HARE as the stratifying variable, we investigate the effectiveness of detecting ethnicity-specific trait loci through simulation as well as analysis of height as a model trait in the MVP.

    This is the first large sample multi-ethnic GWAS I have seen (does anyone know of others?). Figure 5 has a Venn diagram of Genome-wide Significant Height Loci in Each HARE Group. It is notable how few loci appear only among non-white groups. Though that is probably partly an artifact of smaller sample sizes for those groups.

    • Replies: @Genome Voyager
  6. newrouter says:

    Also is 0.0053 a big number?

    • Agree: ben tillman
  7. Peterike says:

    Given that any five year old can, with 100% accuracy, correctly pick the Korean, the black and the white from a line up, can we all just give up this “there’s no such thing as race” business?

    • Replies: @Liza
  8. Anon[331] • Disclaimer says:

    Which students perform better in school? A study says the better-looking ones excel.

    Good looking kids do better in school. Missing is any control for IQ, although they do say that “better looking children performed better on tests of academic achievement, even when controlling for ethnicity, gender and parents’ education and income.”

    Other than missing that main point, the article is interesting, as are the comments.

    Some of the commenters roll out the old canard of “All the cheerleaders and top jocks went to hell after graduation and the nerds are making the money.” This has been studied and is not true at the n=[large number] level, although one’s yearning for schadenfreude makes you want to see it, so it’s a common cognitive bias. Likewise for the idea that really smart people are socially maladept beyond the overall population.

    People with high IQs have better health, so it was assumed that causation is IQ to health. People who look good do better in school (and had they checked, have higher IQs), so it is assumed that good looks lead to [something] that leads to better school grades.

    In fact, all of this is explained by the Fifth Law of Behavioral Genetics, Plomin’s Replicated Findings in Behavioral Genetics, the Nature of Nurture doctrine, and the idea of General Genetic Fitness. Genomes are subject to mutations. Mutations tend to affect genes responsible for all kinds of things. It’s hard for a genome to just have appearance related mutations without having intelligence mutations. Causation is not trait to trait. It’s that the underlying overall genetic condition affects many traits.

    • Agree: ic1000
  9. Kristallnacht Ceiling?

    Another question might involve an upper limit for the percentage of SNP’s deemed to be “white” above which hereditary guilt should be assumed. It has already been asked if someone such as Elizabeth Warren might escape execution on the basis of a one-drop Feather Indian rule.

    Obama stated that, “Sometimes I wonder whether I was 10 or 20 years too early…”


    In other words, born too soon? Hypotheticals and predictions about the future are tricky and so on, but who knows? If he were to have born twenty years later than was the case (subjunctives are tricky for me -as well as a lot of other stuff) he might have been elected God Emperor of Gaia, rather than mere President of the U.S. – Fifty years from now- maybe not so good. Perhaps he should have been born in some once or future Haiti on the eve of a mass slaughter of mulattoes.

    Those identifying as white on a job application might well advised to determine whether the position would be that of a Sonderkommando or that of a lampshade or bar of soap. And it might be that those who are glaringly white, blonde and blue-eyed will have to work twice as hard in order to rise half as high in the ranks as their duskier Sonderkommando coworkers.

    • Replies: @bomag
  10. So faux iSteve is drunk again…

  11. Anon[331] • Disclaimer says:


    Divorced McDonald’s CEO loses job over consensual relationship with an employee.

    In cancel culture you must be killed for the slightest transgression. How about cut his salary by a third for a year? I realized that at the very tippy, tippy top you are subject to standards normal people aren’t, but this still seems Draconian.

    And a lot of our social problems stem from the fact that you cannot meet a mate these days outside of the perverted dating apps (yes, I know they have worked for some). Nobody goes to church, so you can’t meet there. Doctors can’t marry the nurses, and bank executives can’t marry (whatever the modern version is of) someone in the secretarial pool. If you’re a reporter or a commedian or anyone who interacts with people on the outside of work, you risk a #metoo cancellation if your flirting chops are not perfectly calibrated (or if you are insufficiently attractive such that any expression of attraction would be “creepy.”)

  12. @Buzz Mohawk

    [some recycling below]

    They Shoot A Man Called Horse, Don’t They?

    Dear Fellow Brave, Buzz Mohawk:

    My sacred honor as a so-called “noble savage” was recently insulted upon hearing that Jared and Elizabeth Taylor were, somewhat like Asian-American test scores, pulling ahead of a string of horses at the Belmont racetrack (or was it the Bellevue asylum?) in their roles in the epic “National Socialist Velvet.” And, yes, my spirit animal identifies, as equine -without reservation.

    Your 100% Amerindian Kemosabe,
    Chief Bat Shit Crazy Horse

    • Replies: @SFG
    , @Buzz Mohawk
  13. donut says:

    The White Mans capacity for savagery is a gift from the Gods . To deny it and refrain from using it is an offense to Them as much as any other sacrilege . The White Man has been blessed with a superior intellect in every area except cunning . Only the rodent is more cunning than man . The White Man could exterminate the rodent , drive it out from it’s warrens and dens with little effort . It is only the veil of false “virtue” imposed by an alien race that has demonized our strengths , the gifts of the Old Gods remain and unlike the demands for submission of the alien liar the gifts of the true Gods are given with out conditions . Use them or perish . Where does the “evil” lie in exterminating an enemy or allowing ones self to be exterminated ?

  14. Seems like it would be very likely many people who call themselves “Hispanic” would come up White or Black on a genetic test. That’s why for consistency’s sake we should all use color words to identify ourselves – white/black/brown/yellow – and maybe orange, for our president.

  15. danand says:

    Self identified as African. Congratulations to both on their wins/winning.


    “Geoffrey Kamworor, left, and Joyciline Jepkosgei, both of Kenya, pose for photos as the men’s and women’s winners of the New York City Marathon, in New York’s Central Park,Nov. 3, 2019.

    Joyciline Jepkosgei arrived in New York with a modest goal for her first marathon ever. Jepkosgei upset four-time champion Mary Keitany to win the New York City Marathon on Sunday with a historic debut seven seconds off the course record.

    Geoffrey Kamworor of Kenya won the men’s event for the second time in three years. He pounced when defending champion Lelisa Desisa dropped out after seven miles, perhaps hurting following a grueling victory at the sweltering world championships last month. After pulling away from Kenyan countrymate Keitany with about three miles left, Jepkosgei crossed the finish in Central Park in 2 hours, 22 minutes and 38 seconds, the second-best run in course history.”

  16. donut says:

    Fit for an American Dionysia :

    Gen’l Jackson during his masterpiece “The Shenandoah Campaign” during a battle as he was observing the course of the battle inquired about a young volunteer from VMI who had been employed as a runner . He was informed that the boy had been killed . Without lowering his field glasses Stonewall replied “very commendable” . Where are those men and boys now ? Their heroic deeds demeaned by treacherous creatures not fit to breath the air of formerly freemen .

    I will ask you again : Is it better to die for a noble and just cause or live and triumph in an ignoble cause ?

    • Replies: @Neuday
  17. “The could be typos or adoptees or cuckoos eggs or whatever.”

    or people deliberately putting themselves into the category they WANT to be. there are 100 people who want to be in the white category, who aren’t, for every 1 person like Rachel Dolezal or Shaun King.

    kind of like how the FBI categories criminals. by how they want them to be. but not exactly by how they are.

    that seems much more likely than people actually being mistaken about who they are.

    • Replies: @prosa123
  18. Is 0.53% a big number or a small number?

    That’s about the (easily correctable) failure rate for e-Verify. In that context, it’s unacceptably yuuuuuge.

    You can read the full PDF of Fang’s 2019 paper here.

    And get some biographical information here:

  19. Is .53% small or large? It depends. If I forget that .53% of the time I treated a cow with antibiotics, I’m not selling milk anymore.

  20. Hail says: • Website
    @Mr McKenna

    That story is clearly a fake,

    as I would’ve heard about a mass shooting like that in The Media.

  21. I always lie on those ethnicity questionnaires. What possible advantage could there be for me to tell the truth?

  22. Is 0.53% a big number or a small number?

    It is an extremely small number, considering that only 4 categories had been allowed, and that race of somewhat mixed Neanderthal-progeny people, can be sometimes dubious (what would have Lenin checked?).

    • Replies: @Charon
    , @kaganovitch
  23. danand says:
    @Mr McKenna

    “The Disparate Impact lawsuit writes itself!”

    Mr McKenna, yes, it practically does. Orinda is one of the nicest towns in the East Bay Area, they aren’t used to this kind of stuff happening right in their “own backyard”.

    “The 2010 United States Census reported that Orinda had a population of 17,643, The population density was 1,389.5 people per square mile (536.5/km²), The racial makeup of Orinda was 14,533 (82.4%) White-American, 149 (0.8%) African American, 22 (0.1%) Native American, 2,016 (11.4%) Asian-American, 24 (0.1%) Pacific Islander, 122 (0.7%) from other races, and 777 (4.4%) from two or more races, Hispanic or Latino of any race were 807 persons (4.6%).”

    • Replies: @Charon
    , @Hapalong Cassidy
  24. They clearly don’t count those who knowingly falsely identify.

    • Replies: @res
  25. Pericles says:

    What are the major sources of misidentification? “I really am Casino Pocahontas” or what?

    I seem to recall Jews were, ahem, coincidentally misidentified as Native American by the Jewish genetic analysis companies some years back.

    (And while we’re touching the topic, what are the views of Elizabeth Warren on casinos?)

  26. Anonymous[121] • Disclaimer says:

    “Whiteness” is an American/Anglo concept. I don’t think many Europeans, other than native British, would describe themselves as “white”. The other Europeans think of themselves exclusively in terms of French, Germany, Italian, Greek, etc. That’s not to say they aren’t “white”, but they don’t have an all-encompassing concept of “whiteness” like Anglos do.

    Most Europeans think of race quite narrowly in terms of their own ethnicity/nationality, if you’re not part of their immediate ethno-cultural group then you’re an outsider whether you’re a white from another European country or from black Africa.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @adreadline
    , @Reg Cæsar
  27. Was Elizabeth Warren in the study?

    Seriously, though, I have an acquaintance paler than I am with one African-American grandparent who identifies as black, but is likely at least 80% European, more if the grandparent was “high yellow.” (Like the German versus Russian Jewish prejudice we also never hear about the intra-racial discrimination among blacks over degrees of skin color a half century ago.) Will be interesting if he has children with his Jewish wife whether the children fully adopt “White privilege” because they can readily pass or also find it more advantageous to adopt the diversity Pokémon points accruing from the one-drop rule.

    • Replies: @Travis
  28. Charon says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    (what would have Lenin checked?)

    Heh. The woke version of WWJD.

  29. Charon says:

    Wow, that does sound like a nice town–
    By California standards..

  30. SFG says:

    OK, now we have to find the other 52.

  31. Travis says:
    @Hamilton was right

    good point. there are many people who are less than 20% Black yet identify as Black. This is considered acceptable , and accurate.
    While Mexicans who are 40% Native American will identify as being white and this is also deemed acceptable and accurate by the US government. The Census has been counting Mexicans as white since 1930. Yet a white American who is 5% Native American can and will be considered Native American.

    It is strange how someone like Derek Jeter will be considered Black while Alex Rodriguez is considered “hispanic”. Dominicans who are less than 40% Black will consider themselves white.

    Would it be considered accurate if an American claimed to be Native American if he is genetically 95% Caucasian ? What would be the cut-off point ? When DNA studies were done on Cherokee tribal members they found the average Tribal member was just under 4% Native American and 100% of the males tested had a European Y chromosome.

    Would the current Pope be considered Hispanic ? All of his Grandparents were born in Italy and he has no Spanish ancestors. Would his DNA test show his ethnicity is not Hispanic ?

    If Steve Sailer was born and raised in Argentina , would he be considered Hispanic like the Pope ?

    • Replies: @res
    , @Jack D
  32. @reactionry

    Do not despair, Oh Great Chief. The Hopi are surrounded by the Navajo, ripe for the taking. We ride before dawn.

    The White Man’s trickery with his clocks makes it difficult to know when to wake up for our raid, so use this Amerindian trick: Drink much water before sleeping. You will wake up early, and then we make bat shit crazy attack on the Hopi, while the Navajo sleep in their pickup trucks, drunk from the White Man’s Pabst Blue Ribbon.

  33. @Mr McKenna

    A lawyer friend of mine lives in Orinda (uses the BART to commute to SanFran). He told me about this the other day as it was 4 blocks from his house. The article I read at the time didn’t have the victims names yet but after reading about a 5th dead victim the names were released and boy oh boy are they colorful.

    • Replies: @Prester John
  34. Thea says:

    A guy once explained to me how two of his grandparents were from Germany, four great grandparents were from Spain yet since his parents and two grandparents were born in Mexico he was not white.

    So those types are in the 0.53%

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @res
  35. bomag says:
    @Mr McKenna

    …the San Francisco-based company is expanding manual screening of “high risk” reservations and will remove guests who fail to comply with policies banning parties at Airbnb rental homes.

    Q: “Mr. Airbnb employee, what criteria do you use to determine a high risk rental?”

    A: “I know one when I see one.”

    • Replies: @res
  36. prosa123 says:
    @prime noticer

    there are 100 people who want to be in the white category, who aren’t, for every 1 person like Rachel Dolezal or Shaun King

    They are not comparable cases. Dolzeal identifies as black but has no actual black ancestry, while King is unquestionably part black.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  37. bomag says:

    Obama stated that, “Sometimes I wonder whether I was 10 or 20 years too early…”

    Such an Obama-esq article: “I’m awesome; the people aren’t worthy of me, but I lowered myself to rule them; it was other people’s fault everything didn’t go my way; I am the one who ushered in liberal rule forever, it might just be another ten or twenty years before that eschaton is immanenized.”

    • Agree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Dorkbaby
    , @Prester John
  38. Mr. Anon says:

    OT: New US airbase in……………….Africa:

    Built by “Africom”. How long before America gets involved in some war in the Dark Continent. Once you have a “Command”, you will have a war.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
  39. @danand

    Having those in your community is kind of like having lead in your bloodstream. There is no safe level.

  40. @Anon

    Some of the commenters roll out the old canard of “All the cheerleaders and top jocks went to hell after graduation and the nerds are making the money.”

    I will say that dumb cheerleaders are not just a trope in experience. Insofar as they might be successful in spite of it, I don’t particularly argue against.

    • Replies: @Thea
    , @Anon
    , @Jack D
  41. Jack D says:

    Not really. Elizabeth Warren is unquestionably part Indian. A very small part but part nevertheless. At some point, the “part” becomes so small that it is insignificant. Back in the days when we used to be sane(r), the line was usually set at around 1/8th ( 12%). Anyone who was 7/8 white or more was legally considered to be white (if they were free).

    As a practical matter, you also had to “present” as a white person. Those who say race is a social construct are only PARTLY (99%) wrong. 99% of the time, you have no choice about your racial identity – it’s literally written on your face. But 1% of the time (or .5%) you do. For example, in the case of Sally Hemings’s children (whose father was probably Jefferson), they were all 7/8 white and moved north but some of them lived and married as white people and some were known as mulattoes and married blacks, so there are now white Hemings descendants and black ones. Ironically, the link to Jefferson DNA was found in a white branch of the Hemings family. None of the blacks Hemings tested had Jefferson DNA (possibly there was a “failure of paternity” somewhere in their family line). Even this may have been influenced by their appearance, with the darker skinned ones unable to “pass” as white. (The “one-drop” rule did not appear until the 20th century).

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @res
  42. @Bardon Kaldian

    what would have Lenin checked?)

    Lenin would have checked if the people doing the tally were Bolsheviki or Mensheviki.

  43. Thea says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Cheerleaders are not what they used to be. In the 80s. They used to require weekly weight checks and girls got cut from going over. ( Put that chocolate bar down Kristen!) This helped maintain their collective high social status. Competition to be one was cut throat, presided over by a former beauty queen coach, with several weeks conditioning plus week long tryouts.

    By the looks of it, the local high school now has no such rule and so kids shrug when they hear that so-and-so made the squad.

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
  44. Anon[290] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I was using jocks and cheerleaders as a proxy for “most attractive kids on school,” but that’s probably not true. It might not even be that they are the most popular, in the sense of inducing the most sexual longing.

  45. nymom says:

    South America is made up of the same racial composition as the United States: Whites, Indians and some Blacks…so just because someone comes here from a South or Central American country shouldn’t automatically entitle them to minority status eligible for all kinds of set asides and other benefits.

    For instance, many Spaniards, Italians and English settled in Argentina as well as Brazil which was originally settled by Portugal. So how do the descendants of these settlers suddenly morph into ‘minorities’ as soon as they enter the US????

    So this could explain a good number of the ‘mistakes’ on the census…

    • Replies: @Prester John
    , @Jack D
  46. Jack D says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    In the case of females, especially, the path to success in life until recently was not thru being a brainy nerd. If you were a female and physically attractive (regardless of how brainy you were) your best bet for a nice life was to attach yourself to a successful business person or professional, not to BECOME one. There are different ways to apply your intelligence. I don’t think most men realize how much time and energy most attractive females invest in looking attractive. There are some rare women who are so naturally beautiful that they don’t have to do a thing, but most women have to apply considerable artifice to achieve the image that they project. It can be a full time occupation.

  47. OP says:

    I wonder what they counted as the genetic limit for self-identification vs. ancestry. Would it be 10, 15, 20 per cent? In my case, I would identify as white, and they would see that I’m 95% Euro, 3% SSA and 2% Native and other. I think they would count it as a positive correlation, but I what if the non Euro were twice that? Three times?

    • Replies: @res
  48. @Anon

    Those studies relate beauty to certain symmetries, which might literally indicate beauty, but are not necessarily a good measure of “hotness” or “attractiveness”. Markus Zuckus might have a well balanced face, but he has those autistic lizard eyes like other nerds. “Hot” guys, “cool” guys have a certain energy and looseness to them.

  49. @Mr. Anon

    ” Once you have a “Command”, you will have a war.”

    Damn, POTUS is well ahead of the curve then.

    all set for future battle:

  50. danand says:

    Inexplicably a teacher here in the Bay Area town of Milpitas miss self identified just this past passed Halloween.

    The African American female student who shot the video will no doubt soon get offers from the Ivy’s; in addition to a well deserved Jefferson Award for her public service.

    Good to know there there are still some teachers out there living on different planets, just like when I was a schoolkid?


    On this mornings local news broadcast the principal of the school (African America) presented a soft defense of the teacher, saying something along the lines of “he know not what he does”: a simple case of insufficient wokeness on the teachers part. Don’t have any idea what the Principals motive/motivation was?

  51. “there is hardly any connection between genes and race.”

    It’s about that word “hardly” which gives pause. Are the good folks at Science Magazine, uh, hedging their bets a tad?

  52. jb says:

    I’d be interesting in knowing what is meant by “completely wrong” in this context. I doubt very much that anyone has ever self-identified as 100% white but turned out to strongly cluster with sub-Saharan Africans (i.e., the sort of thing that Richard Lewontin’s dumber acolytes believe can happen). Far more likely it was blacks who turned out to be 90% white but considered themselves 100% black because one of their parents was kinda dark and anyway blacks are their people.

    So, just how wrong were the 0.5%?

    • Replies: @res
  53. Neuday says:

    I will ask you again : Is it better to die for a noble and just cause or live and triumph in an ignoble cause ?

    Apparently, it depends on the GDP. Put another way, All Wars Are Banker’s Wars. The only Just Wars are for the survival of your people. Especially after the evisceration of you culture, the subversion of your institutions, the debasement of your currency, and the invasion of your country. So I will tell you again, It’s all fun & games until the EBT don’t work

    • Agree: HammerJack
  54. @nymom

    The folks at the US Census Bureau didn’t get the memo to wit–race is a “social construct”.

    Thus, 80% of the NBA and 70% of the NFL consists of “social constructs”. Or…something.

  55. res says:
    @The Alarmist

    They clearly don’t count those who knowingly falsely identify.

    Why do you say that? Looking at Figure 2 (see my comment 5) there are some blatant mismatches which IMHO are most easily explained by lying (or data entry error, etc.).

  56. Steve,

    Of interest, Q Spencer, in defending his position, dug up a lot of info on the OMB classification scheme (race as delineated by the US government), which even I didn’t know. The latest iteration seems to have been substantially informed by population genetics and the matching old-time major race classifications. I suspected this when I saw NAEP add a Pacific Islander category, but never had the evidence.

    “I think that what the omb means by its race terms are five biological populations in the human species that are sometimes called the human continental populations in the human genetics literature. I also think that what the omb means by ‘race’ is just the set of these continental populations. But what are the human continental populations? In previous research, I’ve worked out that the human continental populations are instances of genealogical populations (also known as ancestry groups) that I call ‘K populations’ (Spencer 2016, p. 796)…

    Finally, Kenneth Prewitt, the uscb director from 1998 to 2001, wrote a book after he retired from his position about how the omb has adopted a biological racial scheme that mirrored the eighteenthcentury racial scheme of J. F. Blumenbach. In fact, it was Prewitt (2013, p.18) who coined the term ‘Blumenbachian races’ for the omb’s races. According to Prewitt (2013, p.18), the omb did this primarily to obtain a racial scheme that assigns a race to every possible US immigrant and every possible child born from an interracial couple in the US. And Prewitt should know. He was in direct conversation with omb demographers when he oversaw the 2000 US census count. ”

    Spencer, Q. (2019, June). I—A More Radical Solution to the Race Problem. In Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume (Vol. 93, No. 1, pp. 25-48). Oxford University Press.

  57. res says:

    Figure 2 gives a pretty good idea of which cases were considered mismatches and which not. They match whites and Asians to a fairly tight group, but the black and Hispanic categories are much less precise.

    Most of your hypotheticals would be considered mismatches by the researchers.

    One interesting thing is that in PC1-PC2 2D space (which is how they present Figure 2) Hispanics appear as a mix of whites and Asians. I think they really need more PCs to properly resolve Aboriginal Americans and Asians.

  58. @MikeatMikedotMike

    “…boy oh boy are they colorful.”

    I’m shocked! Mind you SHOCKED!!

  59. res says:

    And from looking at Figure 2 those types are a substantial proportion of the 0.53%.

    I see the following groups of mismatches.

    – People who are genetically white but identify as Hispanic-the largest group.
    – What look like outright errors or lying. Mostly extreme B/W (both ways) inconsistency.
    – Less than ~50% Hispanic (but enough more than 0% not to be considered genetically white) but identify as white.
    – People who look genetically black (typical African-American black with 0-50% white admixture) but identify as Hispanic.

    Except for the error/lying cases those groups match up pretty well with some recurring iSteve themes.

    P.S. iSteve, is there any chance you could add Figure 2 and its caption to your post? I think that would help us have a concrete conversation about the mismatches.

    • Replies: @Joe Schmoe
  60. J.Ross says:
    @Jack D

    Her claim was not that she had an infinitesimal Indian admixture.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  61. Dorkbaby says:

    Affirmative action Barry. Lol

  62. Jack D says:

    Would it be considered accurate if an American claimed to be Native American if he is genetically 95% Caucasian ? What would be the cut-off point ?

    The cut off point would be zero because Native American tribes do not define membership based upon DNA. They got all pissy when Warren claimed to be an Indian based on DNA. (Then they calmed down and shut up when it was explained to them that Warren would give them heap big benefits). There are probably many tribe members who have zero Indian DNA. DNA is white man’s science. The tribal leaders (who are probably even more likely than the average member to have little or no Indian DNA) like to play the mystical Indian card because it’s in their interest to do so.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Autochthon
  63. Jack D says:

    White people in Latin America are not as white as white people in the US. It’s not unusual for Latino “whites” to have 30% or more Indian (and sometimes African) DNA but most American whites are 99% or better white.

    • Replies: @OP
    , @nymom
  64. res says:

    Q: “Mr. Airbnb employee, what criteria do you use to determine a high risk rental?”

    A: “I know one when I see one.”

    Judge: “Disparate impact!”

    • LOL: Mr McKenna
  65. @Thea

    Remember the video for “Mickey”,by one Toni Basil. The chorus was presented as a cheer led by cheerleaders,one of whom was quite fat,for the time. That got a lot of chuckles,and helped to boost the popularity of the video.

    Was the video some type of deep state op,softening us up for fat cheerleaders?

  66. Jack D says:

    This has all been memory holed. The MSM has “moved on”. The Warren campaign plan (and this has worked) was to get this out early and forever after to say that it had been “dealt with” and was no longer a permissible topic of discussion unless you are some kind of Trumpist Nazi. You’re not a Nazi are you?

    BUT, back when this was a live issue, Warren’s position (echoed in the next day’s headlines) was “Tests Prove that Warren has Indian DNA and that Trump is therefore Lying”. Her claim (at least at the time of the DNA tests) was exactly that – either you have or you don’t have Indian DNA and Warren has some,so her claim to being Indian was truthful. Whether it is 1/512 or 1/1,024 or whatever makes no difference.

    This might have worked except she got outflanked from the Left – the Indian tribes said that DNA has nothing to do with being Indian and whatever has to do with being Indian, Warren doesn’t have. She really didn’t see that one coming. Dems today who go on the attack against Trump always have to worry about being blindsided from their own left.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @Travis
  67. OP says:
    @Jack D

    Incorrect, unless they win the phenotype lottery and do not exhibit any non-Euro traits, anyone in the 30% range of Non-Euro ancestry would not be white by any stretch of the imagination. No one thinks of a castizo or quadroon as white (even if such terms are not in every day use), except for such extreme outliers such as the Dominican Republic, where significant Euro ancestry is enough to make someone “white.”

    • Replies: @Jack D
  68. res says:
    @Jack D

    The “one-drop” rule did not appear until the 20th century

    I think it is more complicated than that. This source conflates hypodescent and the one drop rule in what I think is a misleading but common usage.

    In the United States, the “one-drop rule” — also known as hypodescent — dates to a 1662 Virginia law on the treatment of mixed-race individuals.

    Wikipedia has much on this. I assume what you are referring to is this:

    Under Virginia’s Racial Integrity Act of 1924, the ‘One-drop’ rule defined as black a person with any known African ancestry, regardless of the number of intervening generations.

    In its most extreme form in the United States, hypodescent was the basis of the “one drop rule”, meaning that if an individual had any black ancestry, the person was classified as black. Laws were passed in southern states and others in the early 20th century, long after the end of slavery to define white and black, under associated laws for segregation: Tennessee adopted such a “one-drop” statute in 1910; Louisiana; Texas; Arkansas in 1911; Mississippi in 1917; North Carolina in 1923; Virginia in 1924; Alabama and Georgia in 1927; and Oklahoma in 1931.

    During this same period, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Utah retained their old “blood fraction” statutes de jure, but amended these fractions (one-sixteenth, one-thirtysecond) to be equivalent to one-drop de facto.[5]

    I think that Harvard article actually mischaracterizes the 1662 Virginia law. Here is wikipedia–note the distinction between slave and race.

    However, following Key’s victory, Virginia established the principle in law in 1662 of partus sequitur ventrem, from Roman law; that is, children born in the colonies would take the social status of their mothers. This meant that all children born to enslaved women would be born into slavery, regardless of their paternity and race. This was in contrast to English common law, by which the status of children of English subjects was determined by the father.[2]

    This is an interesting wrinkle:

    Research by historians and genealogists has shown that unlike the above examples, most free African Americans listed in the first two US censuses in the Upper South were descended from relationships or marriages in colonial Virginia between white women, indentured servant or free, and African or African-American men, indentured servant, free or slave. Their unions reflected the fluid nature of relationships among the working classes before slave caste was hardened, as well as the small households and farms within which many people worked. The children of white mothers were born free. If they were illegitimate and mixed race, they were apprenticed in order to avoid the community being burdened with upkeep, but such persons gained a step in freedom.[4]

    TLDR: versions of hypodescent have been around for 350 years in the US, but it looks like the first clear statement of the “one drop rule” was early 20th century as you said.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  69. @res

    There are scores of multi-ethnic GWAS available by now, albeit not at such large scale. The NIH’s dgGaP database has an application that lets you visualize the relationship between the self-identified race/ethnicity of cohort members compared to their genetic ancestry – it is called GRAF-pop

    A search of the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog using the terms trans-ethnic or multi-ethnic turns up a number of multi-ethnic GWAS, and the PAGE study is a great example of a recent study of this kind

    • Replies: @res
  70. res says:

    See Figure 2 in the paper. The thresholds aren’t simple. They used a SVM model constructed as follows.

    All results presented in this paper used the SVM trained on top 30 PCs. Comparing the assignment using 30 PCs versus 20 PCs revealed a discordance rate of 1.3%.

    To train the SVM model described above, we constructed a training dataset that included 201,931 individuals whose SIRE was unambiguous and was one of the four groups. The top 30 PCs were used as predictors. To reduce the influence of a few outliers on the SVM model, we repeated the SVM training step once after removing 1,547 individuals, for whom the predicted most likely group is not the same as SIRE. Thus, the final SVM model used to compute the predicted probability vectors was based on 200,384 individuals.

  71. res says:

    See Figure 2. A fair number really were “completely wrong.” Including cases like both of your examples. Also see my comment 62 describing the different sorts of mismatches we see.

  72. J.Ross says:
    @Jack D

    Nothing is memory holed if we remember it.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  73. nymom says:
    @Jack D

    A lot of Italians in Italy and some good number of people from Spain could fit into this category…After all they were occupied by an Islamic invasion force from Northern Africa before finally defeating and expelling them in the 14th/15th century…

    Nevertheless. I still think they should not be eligible for any special affirmative action benefits in the US…and they seem to be the biggest offenders of misidentified DNA: Whites claiming to be Hispanic…

    Its completely ridiculous to allow this fraud to continue.

  74. The VA lied to every Veteran that the Million Vet blood testing program was going to be used to diagnose mass conditions. Instead the DNA data and veterans records were all given to China.

    Why won’t Trump imprison the VA executives and close the system, replacing it with the same Cadillac private health care given to illegals?

  75. Aidan Kehoe says: • Website

    A grim thing about this whole idea (that sociological race has nothing to do with genetics) is that it will have consequences that will lead to avoidable deaths. When appeals are put out for donor organs, or someone young and healthy dies tragically and the family are on board with transplantation, incorrect identification of either the donor or the recipient’s (biological, genetic) race is much more likely to lead to transplant rejection or redirection, because in very large part, the major histocompatibility complexes have a tight dependence on one’s race.

  76. @Anonymous

    Aren’t there large numbers of indigenous British who consider themselves British, and very likely white, yet not European? Like many Americans consider themselves white and of American ancestry, but not European-Americans?

  77. Jack D says:

    The average say Chilean man on the street is 30% non-white (Indian) and in parts of Argentina too. It’s obvious to outsiders but in SA everyone just pretends to ignore it like that Jacobsen woman whose family pretended not to notice that she was much duskier than her parents. If you speak Spanish and live a Western lifestyle you’re not an “Indian” even if you have very straight black hair and tan well.

  78. Jack D says:

    Most low information voters have CRS – can’t remember shit. Whatever they heard on TV this week is the truth. That’s why the MSM can keep changing the Party line and no one objects. Remember when the Mueller Report was going to destroy Trump? That was memory holed 5 minutes after Senile Bob testified. Two weeks after the impeachment fails, it will be something else.

  79. Jack D says:

    Yes, your status as “black” was a combination of the 1/8th rule and partus sequitur ventrem, So the Hemings children were black as long as they were slaves because their mother was black (only blacks could be slaves) but became white when they were freed. Hypothetically, you could be 99% white and still be a black slave so long as all of your matrilineal ancestors were slaves. As a practical matter, once you were white enough to “pass” there was a strong incentive to escape to the North and start your life over.

  80. @res

    – Less than ~50% Hispanic (but enough more than 0% not to be considered genetically white) but identify as white.

    It is pretty absurd to say that having one g g grandparent who is of another race makes one not a member of the race of his other 15 g g granparents. 1/16 Amerindian and you are Amerindian, but 15/16 white yet not white. ridiculous

    So, what is enough more to not be a member of the group that comprises the majority of one’s ancestors? 25%? I would bet a small but significant fraction of self identifying blacks are less than 25% black.

    Here is George Springer with his father and mother. Dad is obviously black, but George is not.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Jack D
  81. Travis says:
    @Jack D

    most people who are 1% African do not claim to be Black. If all White Americans who are 1% Native American or 1% African claimed to be Indian or Black the white population of the United States would plummet by 50 million people.

    The Indian Tribes were upset with Elizabeth Warren for clamming to be Native American, because they want this designation for themselves only , if all Americans who were 1% Native American began to benefit from affirmative action it would be detrimental to the actual Tribal members. I suppose African Americans would also be upset if millions of whites who are 1% African began to get affirmative action spaces reserved for Blacks. Almost all Puerto Ricans could claim to be Black , since they are genetically about 20% African. Senator Rubio could claim to be Black , as he has some African DNA.

  82. res says:
    @Joe Schmoe

    FWIW I tend to think the basic categorization should be something like dividing racial contribution up as percentages from each of the five continental races. So someone who is 75% white and 25% black would be described as just that. Rather than simply calling them black or white.

    Notice that “Hispanic” does not map at all well into that scheme. Genetically speaking it is a fairly bogus category. As Figure 2 makes clear.

  83. @Anonymous

    …they don’t have an all-encompassing concept of “whiteness” like Anglos do.

    You misspelled gringo.

  84. @Jack D

    The average say Chilean man on the street is 30% non-white (Indian) and in parts of Argentina too.

    What is the Welsh blood quantum of Argentines?

    • Replies: @Jack D
  85. OK. This is the index I want pegged to my mortgage rate.

  86. Jack D says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Woman in back row, 2nd from left don’t look Welsh to me, but she looks very “Argentine”. I’ll bet if you asked her, she would swear that she’s Welsh but DNA would tell a different story.

  87. OP says:
    @Jack D

    I have internet friends who are Chilean and Argentine. I’m told that most people in that are are not racially aware, and instead think in terms of class. Racial distinctions are less common now, but even so, someone who is obviously native will not be considered white no matter the culture.

  88. @Jack D

    30 pct seems high for Chile. They also have a VERY high level of French (vs. Spanish) blood. There’s probably just as many French-Mestizos (of whatever mix) as Spanish-Mestizos in Chile, but they are significantly whiter than other Latin American countries. Although they have their solid Indigenous areas and groups, that are clearly nearly 100 percent indian.

    • Replies: @Autochthon
  89. @bomag

    Obama’s term was eight long years of irony–starting with his ancestry. Unlike Jesse Jackson (a previous failed presidential candidate), Obama had one parent who literally WAS “African”, which made his attempts at “solidarity” with Black America–whose ancestors came here between 200 and 400 years ago— a bit hollow.

  90. Liza says:

    @Peterike: If those 3 persons are not of mixed race, yes, a 5-year old could pick them out of a lineup. However, in recent generations especially, there’s tons of Mulligan’s stews out there. You can stare at them for hours and still not figure out what the hell they are. You can find photos of these diversi-persons on the internet.

  91. OT magic dirt alert: my new passport comes with quotes from various worthies, at the top of each page. And here’s one:

    “The principle of free governments adheres to the American soil.” — Daniel Webster

  92. Jack D says:
    @Joe Schmoe

    If you compare George to his mother, you see that he has certain Africanized traits – wide nose, curly hair. Color photos are very unreliable – in other photos he looks more brown (or what they used to call yaller) and presents as what he is, which is a light skinned mulatto. Probably one more generation (i.e. if he marries a white girl) and all visible traces of African blood will disappear in his offspring. George looks white enough to “pass” but if you know what you are looking for you can see the clues. His kids won’t offer any clues.

    • Replies: @Joe Schmoe
    , @Joe Schmoe
  93. @Jack D

    The wife looks mixed, too, but mostly white like he is. She has a spanish last name.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  94. @Jack D

    When each of the parents is mixed, the kids can be all over the place.

  95. Jack D says:
    @Joe Schmoe

    She looks like a trannie.

  96. @OscarWildeLoveChild

    I’ll warrant (((Jack))) has spent very little, if any, time in South America. Besides, too, he is (((Better than You))) so there is no point disputing his incorrect assertions; a cursory review of his exchanges with others will confirm that, although he once almost admitted to being wrong, he’d made a mistake.

Current Commenter

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.

 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS