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NYT: "U.S. Murder Rate for 2018 Is on Track for a Big Drop"
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From the New York Times:

U.S. Murder Rate for 2018 Is on Track for a Big Drop

Murders are down so far in a sample of large American cities, typically a good indicator for national numbers.

By Jeff Asher, Dec. 6, 2018

The murder rate in the United States in 2018 is on track for the largest one-year drop in five years.

But based on a comparison of 2017 data and 2018 data for 66 large American cities (population over 250,000), we can observe the trend as it is occurring and offer a reasonable forecast. (The 2018 data I’ve collected is available here).

Murder rose 23 percent nationally between 2014 and 2016 before leveling off in 2017. Major increases in murder in Chicago and Baltimore received much of the national attention, but the increase occurred throughout the country.

In the cities in which data is available, murder has been down about 7 percent on average this year relative to the same point in 2017.

Estimating national trends from a sample of cities can be tricky because big cities tend to overstate national trends.

I.e., big cities are blacker and blacks commit the majority of murders, so trends tend to hit them harder.

… If these big cities end the year down about 7 percent from 2017, and if big cities tend to overstate the national trend by about 2.4 percentage points on average, murder should be down by around 4 percent to 5 percent nationally this year.

So far this year, murder in Chicago is down 17 percent in 2018 relative to 2017, accounting for about a third of the drop in the sample. Murder is also down substantially in cities like Baltimore; Charlotte, N.C.; Louisville, Ky.; and Memphis, which all experienced large rises in murder from 2014 to 2016/2017.

… There is still no consensus on why murder rose nationally in 2015 and 2016, though various theories have been proposed, including simple randomness. Similarly, a projected drop in murder in 2018 would not have an obvious cause.

The strongest theory, by far, is that the 23% increase in homicides during the last two years of the Obama Administration was due to the Ferguson/BLM Effect: e.g., local murder rates soared in the wake of BLM political victories, such as St. Louis in 2014 (Michael Brown), Baltimore in 2015 (Freddie Gray), and Chicago in 2016 (LaQuan McDonald).

Unlike the Obama Administration, the Trump Administration has not been on the side of BLM, so it’s hardly surprising that homicides have stopped rising.

But this turns out to be one of the few articles in the NYT that doesn’t mention the word “Trump.”

 
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  1. I know what’s next: “We continue to arrest and imprison vast numbers of black men despite the continued decrease in crime.”

    • Agree: Stan d Mute, L Woods, J.Ross
    • Replies: @Barnard
  2. Well, Chicago IS only on pace for 600 murders and 2900 people shot, so…. yay us?

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  3. Ibound1 says:

    There is still no consensus on why murder rose nationally in 2015 and 2016, though various theories have been proposed, including simple randomness.

    “Randomness”. That is also why food stamp use went up under Obama. Randomness. People got hungrier that year. This year they are randomly fuller.

    • Replies: @Barnard
    , @Trevor H.
    , @Forbes
  4. Don’t you know, the drop must be credited to Mr. Obama — because his actions set up the conditions for which Mr. Trump is now claiming credit?

  5. Paul Rise says:

    I always throw this out: the rise in crime also coincided with the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and Washington, and liberalization of drug law elsewhere. This doubtlessly disrupted organized crime interests dependent on illegal marijuana sales, which could have impacted crime in cities like Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City.

    I base this question in the widely held belief that violent crime skyrocketed in late 80s early 90s due to disruption of organized crime interests due to widespread crack cocaine.

  6. Barnard says:
    @International Jew

    Good point. If the prison reform crowd has success, shouldn’t we anticipate this trend reversing in the next few years.

    • Replies: @L Woods
  7. If a murderer plea bargains down to a lesser charge, does the murder still count as murder in murder stats?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  8. L Woods says:
    @Barnard

    It’d be a great time to short urban properties in erstwhile gentrifying neighborhoods.

  9. istevefan says:

    Murder rose 23 percent nationally between 2014 and 2016 before leveling off in 2017

    So it leveled off in 2017. Does the 2017 murder stat include the Vegas shooting? Or is it separated into some terrorism category? If Vegas is included, it shows that these mass shootings, though they receive considerable attention, really don’t move the needle that much. It’s the day in, day out grind of anonymous big city crime that determines our murder rate.

  10. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:

    I.e., big cities are blacker and blacks commit the majority of murders, so trends tend to hit them harder.

    Do blacks actually commit more than half, or is it more like 48-49%. It would also be interesting to know what percentage of killers are black makes ages 14-35 and what percentage of the population they are.

  11. donut says:
    @donut

    She is more of a man than our false savior . We placed our hope in a fool . We voted for Stewie and got Chris .

  12. Barnard says:
    @Ibound1

    I wonder what the person who proposed randomness gets paid to study crime statistics, maybe $150-200k?

    • Replies: @Ibound1
  13. There is still no consensus on why murder rose nationally in 2015 and 2016, though various theories have been proposed, including simple randomness.

    LOL randomness isn’t a theory, it’s the lack of a theory.

  14. Is there any actual policy that the Trump administration has blocked, reversed, or advocated for that would influence the homicide rate?

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Jim Lahey
  15. U.S. Murder Rate for 2018 Is on Track for a Big Drop

    Is there nothing President Trump cannot do?

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Autochthon
  16. Ibound1 says:
    @Barnard

    His salary is picked randomly and changes every two weeks. He doesn’t even know what his pay will be. He just waits to see what will show up in his bank account.

  17. Anon[315] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paulestinian

    You mean like letting policemen know he has their backs? I tend to think that would count for something. But high-voiced pencilnecks will complain that he didn’t fill out the proper TPS Report so it means nothing.

    Scott Adams was right about one thing. The two halves of America are watching two completely different movies. I just think it’s so funny when twerpy leftists think they can come here and “blend in” unnoticed. And ye shall know them by their… something something

  18. More of the wages of BLM:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/nyregion/queens-jogger-trial.html

    Now every trial of a black man is OJ Simpson’s all over again.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  19. @MikeatMikedotMike

    Mike, and Cleveland hit 130 plus and Buffalo 50 plus and those are third world murder rates.

  20. Art Deco says:
    @Pat Kittle

    As a rule, it still counts. The stat is a sum of murder and non-negligent manslaughter.

  21. Arclight says:

    Wouldn’t a more meaningful statistic – albeit more difficult to track, is the number of people who are shot in various cities each year? I have heard that battlefield trauma techniques have made their way into many emergency rooms, so there are a lot of shooting victims that survive who would not have 15-20 years ago. Perhaps fewer people are murdered, but is it for a lack of trying or not?

    • Replies: @prosa123
    , @Trevor H.
  22. @Buffalo Joe

    Dang it, I really thought we had turned a corner.

  23. @Buffalo Joe

    But John Kasich is proud of the third worlders coming into Ohio!

  24. Jim Lahey says:
    @Paulestinian

    Trump’s magical influence in the black murder rate is from the same fount of juju he has used to froth up a rash of swastika cactuses, de-hijabbings, and passive aggressive escalator comments about black children.

  25. Hail says: • Website

    murder should be down by around 4 percent

    U.S. Murder Rate for 2018 Is on Track for a Big Drop

    4% is not a Big Drop.

    • Replies: @Wally
  26. Hail says: • Website
    @Peripatetic commenter

    Have you ever noticed that Campaign Trump talks about how dangerous illegal Hispanics are, and then pivots to citing the Chicago murder rate, as if that is knockout evidence? I feel this is one of his “go to” one-two punches. Just one problem…

  27. trelane says:

    Another trend I’ve noticed in the last 2 years is a lot more women are walking around with blonde hair. Blondes are quite a bit more common these days. Blonde is back compared to the dark days of Obama.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  28. prosa123 says:
    @Arclight

    I’ve read that advances in medical care have been countered by shootings that are inherently deadlier: more multiple hits, larger calibers, more head shots.
    Excellent emergency care may have greatly increased the survival rate for a person who has been shot once with a .22, but probably won’t be of much use to someone shot five times wth a 9mm.

  29. Trevor H. says:
    @Ibound1

    As luck would have it, I just happened to be looking up the word “Randomness” in my Roget’s. Turns out its antonym is “Narrative”.

  30. Trevor H. says:
    @Arclight

    Can you imagine the kill counts in our major cities if their denizens actually took the time for target practice now and then? Let’s just be glad they don’t, I guess.

    • Replies: @Wally
  31. Forbes says:
    @Ibound1

    Randomness? LOL!

    The stock market moves large and small everyday and media is never shy about offering explanations for why. FOX Biz, CNBC, and Bloomberg TV would be out of business in a heartbeat if they offered ‘randomness’ as the reason for today’s move.

    While in fact, randomness is more often a reasonable market explanation, as a +/- 1% move daily is typical–about 260 pts on the Dow, 27 pts on the S&P 500. (The SD is 1%.)

    As to murders? Well, for the most part, there nothing random about them. Even drive-by shootings have random victims, there’s nothing random about the shooting.

  32. Wally says:
    @Trevor H.

    You mean if they actually attempted murder when not high.

  33. Anonymous[332] • Disclaimer says:
    @candid_observer

    The defendant in this case is apparently severely retarded. So no matter what happens, he probably won’t fulfill a long sentence even if found guilty.

    He did one thing that always throws up red flags for a false confession: got the details wrong. In this case, however, I chalk that up to his enfeebled mind.

    Probably a good tactic even for higher IQ defendants who are guilty: confess with inaccurate details. That really sticks in the jury’s craw. I’m sure good detectives have ways of fighting this strategy, but the jury might go for it anyway.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
  34. I am not a gun expert, but only 600 murdered to 2900 wounded does not sound as if the shooters know how to shoot effectively. I once read a blog post, which suggested, that whenever the ratio of killed people : wounded people is bigger than three, the shooter is black. Since we are talking about Chicago, that seems to be true in this case.

    • Replies: @prosa123
  35. songbird says:

    I’d like to be a fly on the wall of the NYT, just to hear the behind-the-scenes Trump derangement. Must be more interesting than the stuff they put in the paper.

  36. @trelane

    Blonde is back compared to the dark days of Obama.

    :-)

    Free to be blond!

  37. But this turns out to be one of the few articles in the NYT that doesn’t mention the word “Trump.”

    Even before i got to the end, i was thinking–Trump needs to tweet this out!

    Lots of possible constructions, but something like:

    “Standing behind law enforcement, letting police do their job, we are turning around the Democrat/BLM murder murder spike!

    “Congrats to our law enforcement professionals getting thugs off the street and reining in crime.”

  38. Anon[320] • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s a headline that says Chicago’s drop in the murder rate is responsible for more than half the total US decline in 2018:

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/chicago-murder-rate-national-statistics-fbi-report/

    So it’s all in Chicago. This website breaks it down a bit:

    https://heyjackass.com/

    There were big spikes in the overall crime rate in Chicago in 2016 and 2017, and the 2018 stats are just in line with what Chicago had in 2015 and before. It’s a return to normal, not an improvement. It’s very likely a change in Chicago police administration is what accounts for it.

    For what it’s worth, carjackings had a big spike in Chicago in 2017 and have dropped more towards normal.

  39. prosa123 says:
    @GermanReader2

    Handgun shootings generally have about an 80% survival rate. 600 dead vs. 2900 injured is not out of line.
    Rifles and shotguns are much deadlier but are seldom used in crime.

  40. anon[139] • Disclaimer says:

    “Is there any actual policy that the Trump administration has blocked, reversed, or advocated for that would influence the homicide rate?”

    Well, Trump not sending in his Justice Department to places like Ferguson, Missouri tacitly allegedly an evil racist conspiracy to kill innocent black men in the middle of a left-wing media feeding frenzy is a policy he reversed and blocked. His continued refusal to do things like that seem to track well with the decline in the homicide rate in black cities. Of course, there is the NYT-promoted alternative that it was all just “random” – that crime rates had been trending down for well over a decade and just so happened to not only increase but soar 23% over the exact period Obama’s Department of Racial Payback was engaged in all of these national media scandals and then “randomly” went back to trending down as soon as that stopped.

  41. Remember when America was a constitutional republic and its federal government of enumerated powers had no authority or involvement to speak of in legislation, execution, or adjudication of criminal matters?

    Pepperidge Farm remembers.

  42. @Peripatetic commenter

    Reduced immivasio comes to mind….

  43. @Anonymous

    He did one thing that always throws up red flags for a false confession: got the details wrong.

    I haven’t followed the case with great care, but the details he got wrong that I saw mentioned always seemed to make him out to be less monstrous. E.g., as I recollect, that the victim somehow drowned in a puddle rather than died of strangulation.

    He may be very low IQ, but somehow he had enough savvy to do all kinds of internet searches on his smart phone related to the murder, and how he might exculpate himself.

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