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Here’s a New York Times oped by a German establishmentarian advocating something I’ve been warning about in recent Taki’s Magazine columns: the Establishment ideology of globalism is leading not to democracy, but to the German Chancellor autocratically ruling Europe as god-empress:

After Brexit, Can Germany Lead Europe Alone?
By ANNA SAUERBREY JULY 4, 2016

Anna Sauerbrey is an editor on the opinion page of the newspaper Der Tagesspiegel and a contributing opinion writer.

BERLIN — Whether Britain’s decision to leave the European Union turns out to be a disaster or just a bump in the road for Europe on its path to unification, one consequence is already abundantly, disturbingly clear: Brexit will cement Germany’s role as the Continent’s leader — a role that neither Germany nor anybody else is entirely comfortable with.

It has rarely felt this lonely at the center of Europe. With Britain leaving, Germany is losing an important partner within the European Union, as well as on foreign policy beyond it.

That is not to say that Britain was an easy partner in recent years. The mind reels at what Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, known for her cautious, step-by-step policies, must have thought of Prime Minister David Cameron tossing his country’s membership onto the gambling table in a bid to blackmail the European Union.

Okay …

Ms. Merkel is a committed Europeanist; Mr. Cameron called the union “too big, too bossy, too interfering.”

Still, given the nativist pressures rising in practically every country in Europe, Mr. Cameron counted as a pretty good partner. He was a strong supporter of the Berlin-led austerity politics during the financial crisis and the Greek crisis that followed.

He defended the refugee deal that Ms. Merkel devised with Turkey.

… Britain’s departure is a particularly hard blow to Germany since its other partners are weak or growing distant. The German-Polish relationship, once strong, has eroded since the nationalist Law and Justice Party came to power in Poland in 2015. Austria just missed electing the far-right Norbert Hofer as president. …

The problem is that a core reason for the European Union in the first place was to constrain German power by dispersing leadership roles across the membership. But what happens when the future of the union depends, arguably, on a new assertion of German power?

Germany’s immediate reaction to the Brexit referendum has been to call for a new burden-sharing arrangement with what’s left of the old gang. On the Saturday after the vote, the foreign ministers of the European Union’s founding members — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands — assembled at the Villa Borsig, the Brandenburg retreat of the German government. On Monday, Ms. Merkel summoned the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk; Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy; and Mr. Hollande of France to Berlin.

The significance of the fact that she could summon her colleagues onto her own turf to discuss how they might share some of Britain’s newly discarded burden was lost on no one. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the head of Poland’s Law and Justice Party, called the idea of convening only the union’s old guard “little thought through.” …

Wow. Just wow.

There can be no tolerance for that kind of Polish hate speech: “little thought through” …

Thus the dilemma. Germany cannot go it alone, and doesn’t want to. But without a strong partner to share the leadership, it has the unpalatable choice of letting power sit with a broad cast of unreliable partners, or creating a new inner circle. No one wants to give Law and Justice a seat at the table. But denying it will only strengthen national narcissisms in countries already troubled with euroskepticism, further splintering the Continent.

Which means that Germany may have to take command, after all. It’s a delicate task. But now that Germany finds itself on center stage, it might as well perform.

As I wrote in Taki’s last week:

Progressivism is a facade for rule by the strongest. Nationalism is still the way the world works. What ultimately matters in terms of political power is employing armed men to collect tax revenue. In Europe, the leading state at that is Germany, so Europe today is more or less run by the chancellor of Germany.

This might well represent a general principle: progressive ideologies, once they impose crimestop, usually wind up benefiting the most hilariously ironic individuals: transgenderism helps Robber Barons get richer; anti-nationalism makes the German Chancellor more autocratically powerful; feminism gives a sexual-harassing male President an excuse to get around the Constitutional amendment imposing term limits, etc.

 
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  1. But denying it will only strengthen national narcissisms in countries already troubled with euroskepticism, further splintering the Continent.

    National narcissisms‘?

    Could this have been what prompted the cryptic post on projection just before.

  2. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    In any event, aren’t we going to have to bomb Poland because they are becoming extremists?

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/divided-poland-mulls-total-abortion-ban-073029768.html

    • Replies: @Big Bill
    What if we put nukes on their borders and have joint US-German military maneuvers next door? That should send them a message. Maybe they could legalize homosexual and trans marriages, too.
  3. Superlative photo selection, Steve 😉

    Best wishes to you and yours on this our national day.

  4. fourth reich with banks instead of tanks.

    • Agree: NickG
    • Replies: @gruff
    You intended your username to have the word "secession".
  5. “In Europe, the leading state at that is Germany, so Europe today is more or less run by the chancellor of Germany.”

    So Hitler’s wish of Germany ruling Europe came true after all. Great job liberals!

    • Replies: @anon
    Yes, the EU would be exactly "Hitler's wish". That makes absolutely sense.
  6. Mr. Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, disavowed any interest in Continental leadership by his country. “Circumstances have forced it into a central role,” he wrote. “Preserving that union and sharing the burden of leadership are Germany’s top priorities.”

    You made me love you
    I didn’t wanna do it
    I didn’t wanna do it

    You made me want you
    and all the time you knew it
    I guess you always knew it

    You made me happy sometimes
    You made me glad

    But there were times, dear
    You made me feel so bad …”

  7. Leftie Germans are the worst kind of Germans, utterly lacking in self-awareness, arrogant, and despite all their endless nonsense about having learned the right lessons from the Nazi past they are self-righteous a**holes in relation to other Europeans, especially Eastern Europeans (supposedly badly in need of being enlightened by progressive Westerners).
    But before you’re all indulging your inner Germanophobe: people like Sauerbrey are the product of Germany’s US-led “Westernization”. You got what you asked for with her ilk.

    • Agree: Perspective, CJ
  8. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “What ultimately matters in terms of political power is employing armed men to collect tax revenue.”

    Ever so true, Steve.

    As a novice historian, I’d always wondered why the Ottoman Empire was so aggressive in gobbling up this or that area in the Balkans or why England and France (back when parts of coastal France were held by the English crown) and then later, France and Germany in the 18th century squabbled over territory adjoining both countries.

    And of course, as you point out, tax revenue was the key to the whole thing, which is why some extraordinarily productive areas are plums. And having the armed men to collect those revenues at the point of a pike or bayonet is in the final analysis, what political power is all about.

    And speaking of taxes, today, July 4. What disturbed the American revolutionaries was not taxes per se, but lack of representation in England’s parliament; their being consigned to second rate citizen status when they looked upon themselves as full born British citizens with all the rights that that franchise entailed. Oddly enough, they resented their not being treated as British enough!

    • Replies: @mukat
    You are writing the happy horsesh1t you learned in school about the founders. The american revolution was another leftist, roundhead revolution like the one that committed regicide against Charles I. The left and right parties in England were the whigs and tories; the parties in america were the ?patriots? and tories. Patriots were just whigs: murderous leftist destroyers, 18th century version. Read Hutchinson's Strictures. Read Moldbug.
    , @newyorker
    What if the British had called their bluff and said, sure we'll make room for you in Parliament. They'd be a minority interest for sure and effectively powerless

    No, the Americans had a hidden agenda- more freedom from taxes and self rule on their own terms.
  9. @The most deplorable one
    In any event, aren't we going to have to bomb Poland because they are becoming extremists?

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/divided-poland-mulls-total-abortion-ban-073029768.html

    What if we put nukes on their borders and have joint US-German military maneuvers next door? That should send them a message. Maybe they could legalize homosexual and trans marriages, too.

  10. “I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: ‘O Lord make my enemies ridiculous.’ And God granted it.” – Voltaire

    “Once you realize what a joke everything is, being The Comedian is the only thing that makes sense.” – Edward Blake, Watchmen

    We are the synthesis.

  11. Ms. Merkel is a committed Europeanist;

    If she really were, she wouldn’t want to import non-Europeans into Europe.

  12. “On the Saturday after the vote, the foreign ministers of the European Union’s founding members — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands”

    I think there would be a higher chance of the EU breaking up if just one of these nations had their EU exit referendum and voted to leave. Greece, Denmark, Hungary and Sweden could all leave, and the EU would probably still carry on. Of the founding EU nations, a Nexit is probably the most likely scenario – though even that is stretching the imagination at this point.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Ambrose Evans Pritchard made a case for Iexit in the Daily Telegraph in May.


    Italy Must Choose Between the Euro and its own Economic Survival
  13. David Cameron tossing his country’s membership onto the gambling table in a bid to blackmail the European Union.

    Eurocentric much, Anna?
    Getting into it with his future retirement gig was the last thing on his mind. Troughing and greasing his way round the Continental apparatus like Kinnocks was probably part of the prize he was looking forward to.
    The cap and the hem of it was the decades-old civil war within his own party over Europe, initiated by Heath. And every year it looked more and more like the Kippers were going to eat the built-in majority the Tories have held in England, for so many years, for lunch. With mushy peas, onion gravy and a pint of Spitfire or three.
    When he tried to fob the “Bastards”(©John Major, 1993) off with a promise of Referendum two years ahead of the election last May, he wasn’t able to foresee the catastrophic collapse of Labour strength due to the defection of the Scottish working class to Nationalists, rendering them and, crucially, the Faragistes impotent to challenge his position.
    If he had, I very much doubt that he’d have given the wacky modern notion of indulging the tenantry’s clamour for a democratic plebiscite the time of day. Born to Rule, that’s the Tory credo.

    tl;dr “Europe” had almost nothing to do with it. “Survival” did.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    Agreed. Cameron promised a referendum to head off any more Tory defectors to UKIP (2 MPs and a decent chunk of the membership, and 4 million voters, probably split 50/50 between ex-Tory and ex-Labour). The thought he might lose never entered his head. He had the entire Establishment, the leaders of all the parties in Parliament bar UKIP (reduced to 1 MP in the election), the Bank of England and the BBC on his side.

    In the Scottish independence referendum there was a well co-ordinated stream of "sky will fall" stories, drip-fed day after day to the media - and it worked. The same tactic was used for the referendum (I stopped listening to BBC News as it was too depressing) - and, miraculously, it failed.

    I'd not stayed up for the results, anticipating defeat for Brexit. Could hardly believe it when I turned on the radio to find a gloomy and subdued BBC presenter sounding as if Leave might actually have won.

    Cameron must have been devastated to find that his pro-EU, globalist invade-and-invite administration would enter the history books as taking the UK out of the EU. He was close to choking as he read out his resignation.
  14. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Hi, Steve, congratulations from another anonymous (one of the anonymi?); you may have cracked it.

    Merkel and Germany need to take over the continent to hunt down racists, haters, and KKKers. They are everywhere and would take over if Germany didn’t rule and impose progressive modern values on citizens who aren’t quite up to the task. You can tell because of the nasty nativist nationalistic pushback Merkel got when she suggested every European support a clan of non-Europeans. Rule Germania!

  15. The welcome given to the returning Icelandic national soccer team:

    https://twitter.com/B3zero/status/750077776196018176

    Makes a Trump rally look like the Vagina Monologues and I like Trump rallies. Iceland’s happily outside the EU, by the way.

    • Replies: @Lot
    Iceland's gigantic banks, like in Ireland, Greece, and Cypress, went completely bust in the financial crisis. On a per capita basis they had the most debt and biggest bank failures in the world.

    Rather than do a government bailout, they are on the only country in Europe that simply let all their huge banks fail, and excepted a massive currency devaluation as well.

    One of the best part of Michael Moore's new movie is him going to Iceland and talking with the state prosecutor about how many bankers they threw in jail.

    If Iceland had taken the offer of the IMF/Euroweenies for "help" with a bank bailout, they'd be in the economic position of Greece right now: massive unemployment and politically under the German boot.
  16. “We could let you run your own country, but you wouldn’t know how to do the right thing.”

  17. I prefer the old Baader-Meinoff menaced Germany to this new Davos-mensch Germany any day.

  18. @Perspective
    "On the Saturday after the vote, the foreign ministers of the European Union’s founding members — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands"

    I think there would be a higher chance of the EU breaking up if just one of these nations had their EU exit referendum and voted to leave. Greece, Denmark, Hungary and Sweden could all leave, and the EU would probably still carry on. Of the founding EU nations, a Nexit is probably the most likely scenario - though even that is stretching the imagination at this point.

    Ambrose Evans Pritchard made a case for Iexit in the Daily Telegraph in May.

    Italy Must Choose Between the Euro and its own Economic Survival

  19. @let it burn
    fourth reich with banks instead of tanks.

    You intended your username to have the word “secession”.

  20. NYT wants Germany to rule–just as long as lunatic Merkel keeps mass importing a New People into her country!

  21. Meanwhile, for the last 36 hours, African immigrants, have increase in size, have organized, and are bum-rushing the the northern Italian border town of Ventimiglia, in a concerted effort to make it to France:

    • Replies: @snorlax

    African immigrants, have increase in size
     
    Are they going to fight Godzilla?
    , @bomag
    I imagine that they are chanting: "more for us; less for you."
    , @Anonymous
    These people are really taking the piss - as they say in England.
  22. @V Vega
    Meanwhile, for the last 36 hours, African immigrants, have increase in size, have organized, and are bum-rushing the the northern Italian border town of Ventimiglia, in a concerted effort to make it to France:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVvCGKVQnKo

    African immigrants, have increase in size

    Are they going to fight Godzilla?

  23. @V Vega
    Meanwhile, for the last 36 hours, African immigrants, have increase in size, have organized, and are bum-rushing the the northern Italian border town of Ventimiglia, in a concerted effort to make it to France:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVvCGKVQnKo

    I imagine that they are chanting: “more for us; less for you.”

    • Replies: @V Vega

    I imagine that they are chanting: “more for us; less for you.”
     
    Probably, "Let us in now, so we can live together in harmony" is enough.

    I suspect it's best for you not to overthink this.
  24. “We’re matching to a faster pace. Look out, here comes the master race!”

  25. Lot says:
    @Cagey Beast
    The welcome given to the returning Icelandic national soccer team:

    https://twitter.com/B3zero/status/750077776196018176

    Makes a Trump rally look like the Vagina Monologues and I like Trump rallies. Iceland's happily outside the EU, by the way.

    Iceland’s gigantic banks, like in Ireland, Greece, and Cypress, went completely bust in the financial crisis. On a per capita basis they had the most debt and biggest bank failures in the world.

    Rather than do a government bailout, they are on the only country in Europe that simply let all their huge banks fail, and excepted a massive currency devaluation as well.

    One of the best part of Michael Moore’s new movie is him going to Iceland and talking with the state prosecutor about how many bankers they threw in jail.

    If Iceland had taken the offer of the IMF/Euroweenies for “help” with a bank bailout, they’d be in the economic position of Greece right now: massive unemployment and politically under the German boot.

    • Replies: @CJ
    From the Sauerbrey article posted by Steve:

    Still, given the nativist pressures rising in practically every country in Europe, Mr. Cameron counted as a pretty good partner. He was a strong supporter of the Berlin-led austerity politics during the financial crisis and the Greek crisis that followed.
     
    Translation: When a bunch of French and German banks made bad loans in Greece, a place they damn well knew was corrupt to the gills, Cameron was in favor of bailing them out with taxpayer money. He definitely wasn't in favor of the Icelandic example of letting the banks take a haircut themselves; generally speaking Cameron is against anything that impedes his friends in the City of London from making as much money as possible. It's great that he's gone, although I admired the restraint he showed in his resignation speech.
  26. @anonymous
    "What ultimately matters in terms of political power is employing armed men to collect tax revenue."

    Ever so true, Steve.

    As a novice historian, I'd always wondered why the Ottoman Empire was so aggressive in gobbling up this or that area in the Balkans or why England and France (back when parts of coastal France were held by the English crown) and then later, France and Germany in the 18th century squabbled over territory adjoining both countries.

    And of course, as you point out, tax revenue was the key to the whole thing, which is why some extraordinarily productive areas are plums. And having the armed men to collect those revenues at the point of a pike or bayonet is in the final analysis, what political power is all about.

    And speaking of taxes, today, July 4. What disturbed the American revolutionaries was not taxes per se, but lack of representation in England's parliament; their being consigned to second rate citizen status when they looked upon themselves as full born British citizens with all the rights that that franchise entailed. Oddly enough, they resented their not being treated as British enough!

    You are writing the happy horsesh1t you learned in school about the founders. The american revolution was another leftist, roundhead revolution like the one that committed regicide against Charles I. The left and right parties in England were the whigs and tories; the parties in america were the ?patriots? and tories. Patriots were just whigs: murderous leftist destroyers, 18th century version. Read Hutchinson’s Strictures. Read Moldbug.

  27. @bomag
    I imagine that they are chanting: "more for us; less for you."

    I imagine that they are chanting: “more for us; less for you.”

    Probably, “Let us in now, so we can live together in harmony” is enough.

    I suspect it’s best for you not to overthink this.

  28. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    The truth is that the EU is profoundly anti-democratic, and was actually set up to be anti-democratic.
    The EU which is run by unelected and unaccountable ‘commissioners’ has powers which override those of its nominally ‘sovereign’ constituent member states, states which are, in fact, democratic in that their governments only hold power by dint of popular mandate.

    Thus we have yet another EU crisis brewing in Italy right now. Basically the EU, and the euro currency have ruined the Italian economy. The Italian banking sector is teetering on the brink of disaster. To stave off years more of stagnation, the Italian government wishes to bail out the banks.
    But it can’t. The EU won’t let them.

    This puts brexit into perspective.

  29. @V Vega
    Meanwhile, for the last 36 hours, African immigrants, have increase in size, have organized, and are bum-rushing the the northern Italian border town of Ventimiglia, in a concerted effort to make it to France:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVvCGKVQnKo

    These people are really taking the piss – as they say in England.

  30. CJ says:
    @Lot
    Iceland's gigantic banks, like in Ireland, Greece, and Cypress, went completely bust in the financial crisis. On a per capita basis they had the most debt and biggest bank failures in the world.

    Rather than do a government bailout, they are on the only country in Europe that simply let all their huge banks fail, and excepted a massive currency devaluation as well.

    One of the best part of Michael Moore's new movie is him going to Iceland and talking with the state prosecutor about how many bankers they threw in jail.

    If Iceland had taken the offer of the IMF/Euroweenies for "help" with a bank bailout, they'd be in the economic position of Greece right now: massive unemployment and politically under the German boot.

    From the Sauerbrey article posted by Steve:

    Still, given the nativist pressures rising in practically every country in Europe, Mr. Cameron counted as a pretty good partner. He was a strong supporter of the Berlin-led austerity politics during the financial crisis and the Greek crisis that followed.

    Translation: When a bunch of French and German banks made bad loans in Greece, a place they damn well knew was corrupt to the gills, Cameron was in favor of bailing them out with taxpayer money. He definitely wasn’t in favor of the Icelandic example of letting the banks take a haircut themselves; generally speaking Cameron is against anything that impedes his friends in the City of London from making as much money as possible. It’s great that he’s gone, although I admired the restraint he showed in his resignation speech.

    • Replies: @snorlax
    Cameron's resignation is the worst act of his political career, or, specifically, resigning before invoking Article 50, so that, spoiler alert, it never will be.
  31. @CJ
    From the Sauerbrey article posted by Steve:

    Still, given the nativist pressures rising in practically every country in Europe, Mr. Cameron counted as a pretty good partner. He was a strong supporter of the Berlin-led austerity politics during the financial crisis and the Greek crisis that followed.
     
    Translation: When a bunch of French and German banks made bad loans in Greece, a place they damn well knew was corrupt to the gills, Cameron was in favor of bailing them out with taxpayer money. He definitely wasn't in favor of the Icelandic example of letting the banks take a haircut themselves; generally speaking Cameron is against anything that impedes his friends in the City of London from making as much money as possible. It's great that he's gone, although I admired the restraint he showed in his resignation speech.

    Cameron’s resignation is the worst act of his political career, or, specifically, resigning before invoking Article 50, so that, spoiler alert, it never will be.

  32. Don’t get overtaken with anti-German sentiment. Trying tp prevent German domunation on the Continent is a fool’s errand that lead to WW I. It’s the largest and most economically advanced country and, with the obvious exceptions, has enjoyed good and productive domestic politics. Their politics even has the salubrious feature that upscale-lifestyle-sexual-revolution lefties (Greens) are split off from the trade unionists (SPD). So, you do not have the bizarre situation where autoworkers are supporting tree huggers and drawn into World War T.

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe. It doesn’t have the same tenor as here because they never had Calvinism. There are no – and never were – Ted Cruzes in Germany.

    Is everyone aware that Germany does not have gay marriage (although partnerships w/tax benefits) or gay adoption?

    That their abortion laws are very restrictive?

    That women’s labor participation rate (particularly in the former West Germany) is extremely low? Latch key children are still looked down upon. This conservatism is the main reason the birth rate is so low – the idea is do it completely right or don’t do it.

    Surely Merkel has made mistake with the asylum seekers. I think this can be mitigated. The German model of consensus driven politic allows for forceful changes of course that can be subtle to the outside. Look up Agenda 2010 and Hartz IV. I expect there will be a similar change in course here. As Steve has always counseled, lots of unspoken or below the radar things go on that are not obvious. A few officials tightening their scrutiny, and so on. Furthermore, no matter what the kaws are, the place is never going to be hospitable to Middle Eastern immigrants.

    • Replies: @TheJester
    Germany never had Calvinism? They are the home of Calvinism, especially the Prussians and the northern Germans. (In the late 19th Century, the Prussians forced the Lutherans and Calvinists to form one church ... Evangelical Lutheran.) The middle of Germany is a mix of Catholics and Evangelical Lutherans. The south is mostly Catholic. Calvinism fit the German national character ... an Ideology of Election based on predestination, strict rule following (and a predisposition toward guilt when not following the rules), and a focus on work and wealth generation at the expense of pleasure.

    American (WASPS) adopted a Calvinist veneer when the Calvinist minorities fled Britain for the new world to escape persecution by the Anglicans. The United States then spread Calvinism (or neo-Calvinism in its current expression) throughout is expanding empire. The same thing happened in Europe as German cultural and political influence spread throughout Europe in the expansion of the EU.

    Frau Merkel's father was an Evangelical Lutheran minister from northern Germany.

    , @celt darnell

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe.
     
    Really?

    Why then, the failure to reproduce? Of all the major European nations, its demographics are the most disastrous. Social conservatism by definition results in a healthy birthrate. Contrary to your assertion, the collapsing German birthrate has nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with social liberal hedonism.

    Germany's abortion laws are hardly any more restrictive than the UK's. They are still far more "liberal" than Ireland's.

    Gay marriage? Anyone here want to take a bet against gay marriage being legal in Germany within the next ten years? A single ECHR judgement will do it -- you don't even need German consent.

    Don't even get me started on German political correctness and hostility to freedom of speech.

    "Trying tp [sic] prevent German domunation [sic] on the Continent is a fool’s errand that lead to WW I."

    That's one interpretation -- another is that, contrary to what the Germans may have believed, no-one was obliged to accept that domination.

    More to the point, given its current trajectory, present-day German domination of Europe looks to be as short-lived as it proved to be in the recent past.

  33. @Expletive Deleted

    David Cameron tossing his country’s membership onto the gambling table in a bid to blackmail the European Union.
     
    Eurocentric much, Anna?
    Getting into it with his future retirement gig was the last thing on his mind. Troughing and greasing his way round the Continental apparatus like Kinnocks was probably part of the prize he was looking forward to.
    The cap and the hem of it was the decades-old civil war within his own party over Europe, initiated by Heath. And every year it looked more and more like the Kippers were going to eat the built-in majority the Tories have held in England, for so many years, for lunch. With mushy peas, onion gravy and a pint of Spitfire or three.
    When he tried to fob the "Bastards"(©John Major, 1993) off with a promise of Referendum two years ahead of the election last May, he wasn't able to foresee the catastrophic collapse of Labour strength due to the defection of the Scottish working class to Nationalists, rendering them and, crucially, the Faragistes impotent to challenge his position.
    If he had, I very much doubt that he'd have given the wacky modern notion of indulging the tenantry's clamour for a democratic plebiscite the time of day. Born to Rule, that's the Tory credo.

    tl;dr "Europe" had almost nothing to do with it. "Survival" did.

    Agreed. Cameron promised a referendum to head off any more Tory defectors to UKIP (2 MPs and a decent chunk of the membership, and 4 million voters, probably split 50/50 between ex-Tory and ex-Labour). The thought he might lose never entered his head. He had the entire Establishment, the leaders of all the parties in Parliament bar UKIP (reduced to 1 MP in the election), the Bank of England and the BBC on his side.

    In the Scottish independence referendum there was a well co-ordinated stream of “sky will fall” stories, drip-fed day after day to the media – and it worked. The same tactic was used for the referendum (I stopped listening to BBC News as it was too depressing) – and, miraculously, it failed.

    I’d not stayed up for the results, anticipating defeat for Brexit. Could hardly believe it when I turned on the radio to find a gloomy and subdued BBC presenter sounding as if Leave might actually have won.

    Cameron must have been devastated to find that his pro-EU, globalist invade-and-invite administration would enter the history books as taking the UK out of the EU. He was close to choking as he read out his resignation.

  34. I work with a group of international young people. After Brexit, the general mood was “democracy is crap”, voiced most loudly by the German.

  35. Germany, unfortunately, has been playing the role of the high
    school bully of Europe. ‘Bully’, due to its population advantage
    of 80 million vis à vis 60 million in France and 40 million in
    Poland. ‘High school’, since Germany is a young immature
    country, unified only since 1871. Holy Roman Empire,
    as Voltaire observed, was neither holy nor an empire. It was
    a loose confederation of states, which doesn’t count. So
    Germany is young and immature compared to old countries
    like France and England, and hence you can expect it to act
    like a juvenile delinquent. But even when Germany was
    a collection of states, it was remarkably effective at destabilizing
    Europe over and over and over … Europe is still waiting for
    Germany to grow up.

    The basic problem is that there are too many Germans as
    compared to their neighbors. Fortunately for Europe, this
    problem is now resolving itself – due to the TFR of 1.3,
    Germany is in demographic free fall. Frau Merkel knows it,
    and is desperately trying to import migrants to keep Germany
    from becoming depopulated. But still the number of ethnic
    Germans is dropping rapidly. Once their number declines to 60 60 60 million or so, Germany will become a more mature member
    of the European community.

    Someone might say, “But Poland is also suffering from low
    birthrates.” True, but Poland because of its location in Central
    Europe at the boundary with Eastern Europe appears to be
    returning to the role it played for centuries as the
    Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the largest country in
    Europe whose boundary once ran 50 miles from Moscow.
    As “antemurale Christianitatis” (bulwark of Christianity),
    Poland’s historical role, due to its large size, was to defend
    Europe against Muslim advances. Poland seems to be
    returning to this role. Its populist government refused to
    accept Muslim migrants despite Frau Merkel’s pressure.
    Instead Poland is again becoming a civilizational center,
    like the old Rzeczpospolita, that has no problem attracting
    millions of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and even some Russians
    if it so wishes. Already about a million Ukrainians are working
    and studying in Poland, and according to a recent survey
    90% Ukrainians in western Ukraine (say 200 miles from the
    Polish border) would rather be ruled by Poland than by the Kiev
    oligarchs

    • Replies: @Bies Podkrakowski
    F*k this Commonwealth crap with all its multinational kumbaya.

    It was workable when people to the East of Polish lands were simple "local folk", without their own national identity. Now they have their own Belorussian or Ukrainian nations so its not gong to work. Just wait before those productive Ukrainians that we imported start issuing demands.

    No thank you very much. I like my mono-cultural, boring country where nothing of interests ever happens. Generation of my grandparents paid terrible price for it in ethnic and destruction of much of Polish cultural heritage. And now we are going to waste this because we want a minuscule increase in mythical GDP or because we want to dream old, imperial dreams?

    No.

    , @anon
    We're still waiting for the average Pole on the internet to grow up eventually.
  36. Just “60 million” in my previous post ☺️

  37. This might well represent a general principle: progressive ideologies, once they impose crimestop, usually wind up benefiting the most hilariously ironic individuals: transgenderism helps Robber Barons get richer; anti-nationalism makes the German Chancellor more autocratically powerful; feminism gives a sexual-harassing male President an excuse to get around the Constitutional amendment imposing term limits, etc.

    Great passage, Steve. Reminds me of one of your classics about the ‘high-minded’ cons we have to endure:

    Have you ever noticed that basically everything you are supposed to believe in these days — feminism, diversity, etc. — turns out in practice to just be another way for hot babes, rich guys, super salesmen, cunning financiers, telegenic self-promoters, and charismatic politicians to get even more money and power?

  38. I am a Polish nationalist by all western definitions of this word, but I am also a realist. Even though the words about rising Poland role are like honey on myheart, the truth is:
    (1) Poland’s GDP per capita is still 75% of EU average, way behind Germany’s
    (2) We have huge 7% unemployment
    (3) GDP growth is predicted to be much smaller than previously thought, and may be just 3% this year.
    (4) What’s the most important: millions of young Poles emmigrated and will never return. TFR rates are lowest in Europe almost. Meaning we are facing demographic catastrophe. No nation can achieve economic growth and political power when half of population approaches 50 years old, as may soon be in case of my motherland.

    Unless the (4) from above will be addressed, my country won’t become new European regional power.

    In the meantime, more than 80% Poles are still pro-EU (though the percentage is the lower, the younger the age group).

    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    what's the problem? Why can't Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave? Frankly, the Poles I met in Britain working in the hotels didn't seem to be all that excited. They were working crummy jobs and probably living in crummier and crowded arrangements. Are those service jobs really better than what they can get in Poland?

    I sometimes even wonder if the Mexicans working in our hotels and backyards are actually better off than when they were in Mexico.
  39. @Horseball
    Don't get overtaken with anti-German sentiment. Trying tp prevent German domunation on the Continent is a fool's errand that lead to WW I. It's the largest and most economically advanced country and, with the obvious exceptions, has enjoyed good and productive domestic politics. Their politics even has the salubrious feature that upscale-lifestyle-sexual-revolution lefties (Greens) are split off from the trade unionists (SPD). So, you do not have the bizarre situation where autoworkers are supporting tree huggers and drawn into World War T.

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe. It doesn't have the same tenor as here because they never had Calvinism. There are no - and never were - Ted Cruzes in Germany.

    Is everyone aware that Germany does not have gay marriage (although partnerships w/tax benefits) or gay adoption?

    That their abortion laws are very restrictive?

    That women's labor participation rate (particularly in the former West Germany) is extremely low? Latch key children are still looked down upon. This conservatism is the main reason the birth rate is so low - the idea is do it completely right or don't do it.

    Surely Merkel has made mistake with the asylum seekers. I think this can be mitigated. The German model of consensus driven politic allows for forceful changes of course that can be subtle to the outside. Look up Agenda 2010 and Hartz IV. I expect there will be a similar change in course here. As Steve has always counseled, lots of unspoken or below the radar things go on that are not obvious. A few officials tightening their scrutiny, and so on. Furthermore, no matter what the kaws are, the place is never going to be hospitable to Middle Eastern immigrants.

    Germany never had Calvinism? They are the home of Calvinism, especially the Prussians and the northern Germans. (In the late 19th Century, the Prussians forced the Lutherans and Calvinists to form one church … Evangelical Lutheran.) The middle of Germany is a mix of Catholics and Evangelical Lutherans. The south is mostly Catholic. Calvinism fit the German national character … an Ideology of Election based on predestination, strict rule following (and a predisposition toward guilt when not following the rules), and a focus on work and wealth generation at the expense of pleasure.

    American (WASPS) adopted a Calvinist veneer when the Calvinist minorities fled Britain for the new world to escape persecution by the Anglicans. The United States then spread Calvinism (or neo-Calvinism in its current expression) throughout is expanding empire. The same thing happened in Europe as German cultural and political influence spread throughout Europe in the expansion of the EU.

    Frau Merkel’s father was an Evangelical Lutheran minister from northern Germany.

  40. transgenderism helps Robber Barons get richer

    Eh?

  41. @Anon 2
    Germany, unfortunately, has been playing the role of the high
    school bully of Europe. 'Bully', due to its population advantage
    of 80 million vis à vis 60 million in France and 40 million in
    Poland. 'High school', since Germany is a young immature
    country, unified only since 1871. Holy Roman Empire,
    as Voltaire observed, was neither holy nor an empire. It was
    a loose confederation of states, which doesn't count. So
    Germany is young and immature compared to old countries
    like France and England, and hence you can expect it to act
    like a juvenile delinquent. But even when Germany was
    a collection of states, it was remarkably effective at destabilizing
    Europe over and over and over ... Europe is still waiting for
    Germany to grow up.

    The basic problem is that there are too many Germans as
    compared to their neighbors. Fortunately for Europe, this
    problem is now resolving itself - due to the TFR of 1.3,
    Germany is in demographic free fall. Frau Merkel knows it,
    and is desperately trying to import migrants to keep Germany
    from becoming depopulated. But still the number of ethnic
    Germans is dropping rapidly. Once their number declines to 60 60 60 million or so, Germany will become a more mature member
    of the European community.

    Someone might say, "But Poland is also suffering from low
    birthrates." True, but Poland because of its location in Central
    Europe at the boundary with Eastern Europe appears to be
    returning to the role it played for centuries as the
    Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the largest country in
    Europe whose boundary once ran 50 miles from Moscow.
    As "antemurale Christianitatis" (bulwark of Christianity),
    Poland's historical role, due to its large size, was to defend
    Europe against Muslim advances. Poland seems to be
    returning to this role. Its populist government refused to
    accept Muslim migrants despite Frau Merkel's pressure.
    Instead Poland is again becoming a civilizational center,
    like the old Rzeczpospolita, that has no problem attracting
    millions of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and even some Russians
    if it so wishes. Already about a million Ukrainians are working
    and studying in Poland, and according to a recent survey
    90% Ukrainians in western Ukraine (say 200 miles from the
    Polish border) would rather be ruled by Poland than by the Kiev
    oligarchs

    F*k this Commonwealth crap with all its multinational kumbaya.

    It was workable when people to the East of Polish lands were simple “local folk”, without their own national identity. Now they have their own Belorussian or Ukrainian nations so its not gong to work. Just wait before those productive Ukrainians that we imported start issuing demands.

    No thank you very much. I like my mono-cultural, boring country where nothing of interests ever happens. Generation of my grandparents paid terrible price for it in ethnic and destruction of much of Polish cultural heritage. And now we are going to waste this because we want a minuscule increase in mythical GDP or because we want to dream old, imperial dreams?

    No.

    • Replies: @Bies Podkrakowski
    Should be: "ethnic cleansings and destruction ".
  42. @Anon 2
    Germany, unfortunately, has been playing the role of the high
    school bully of Europe. 'Bully', due to its population advantage
    of 80 million vis à vis 60 million in France and 40 million in
    Poland. 'High school', since Germany is a young immature
    country, unified only since 1871. Holy Roman Empire,
    as Voltaire observed, was neither holy nor an empire. It was
    a loose confederation of states, which doesn't count. So
    Germany is young and immature compared to old countries
    like France and England, and hence you can expect it to act
    like a juvenile delinquent. But even when Germany was
    a collection of states, it was remarkably effective at destabilizing
    Europe over and over and over ... Europe is still waiting for
    Germany to grow up.

    The basic problem is that there are too many Germans as
    compared to their neighbors. Fortunately for Europe, this
    problem is now resolving itself - due to the TFR of 1.3,
    Germany is in demographic free fall. Frau Merkel knows it,
    and is desperately trying to import migrants to keep Germany
    from becoming depopulated. But still the number of ethnic
    Germans is dropping rapidly. Once their number declines to 60 60 60 million or so, Germany will become a more mature member
    of the European community.

    Someone might say, "But Poland is also suffering from low
    birthrates." True, but Poland because of its location in Central
    Europe at the boundary with Eastern Europe appears to be
    returning to the role it played for centuries as the
    Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the largest country in
    Europe whose boundary once ran 50 miles from Moscow.
    As "antemurale Christianitatis" (bulwark of Christianity),
    Poland's historical role, due to its large size, was to defend
    Europe against Muslim advances. Poland seems to be
    returning to this role. Its populist government refused to
    accept Muslim migrants despite Frau Merkel's pressure.
    Instead Poland is again becoming a civilizational center,
    like the old Rzeczpospolita, that has no problem attracting
    millions of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and even some Russians
    if it so wishes. Already about a million Ukrainians are working
    and studying in Poland, and according to a recent survey
    90% Ukrainians in western Ukraine (say 200 miles from the
    Polish border) would rather be ruled by Poland than by the Kiev
    oligarchs

    We’re still waiting for the average Pole on the internet to grow up eventually.

  43. What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately? The native German population is currently worse affected than anyone else by the globalist agenda, besides having to serve as convenient scapegoats for everyone else’s misery.

    • Replies: @Bies Podkrakowski
    Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And - what is most important - Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not.

    So lets continue with German-bashing till they improve.
    , @Ralph Raico
    anon writes, "What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately?" I think it's a spinoff of the constant demonization of the Germans that's been going on for at least the last seven decades. There's an incessant focus on a twelve year period in the thousand year history of this ancient and creative European people who gave us the printing press, the automobile, and the jet engine, as well as pioneering whole branches of science. Gregor Mendel, the founder of genetics, was a Sudeten-German monk. You could also say that the Germans also produced some really nice tunes. As always in these matters, the question is, cui bono?
    , @Ralph Raico
    anon writes, "What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately?" I think it's a spinoff of the constant demonization of the Germans that's been going on for at least the last seven decades. There's an incessant focus on a twelve year period in the thousand year history of this ancient and creative European people who gave us the printing press, the automobile, and the jet engine, as well as pioneering whole branches of science. Gregor Mendel, the founder of genetics, was a Sudeten-German monk. You could also say that the Germans also produced some really nice tunes. As always in these matters, the question is, cui bono?
  44. @Grandpa Jack
    "In Europe, the leading state at that is Germany, so Europe today is more or less run by the chancellor of Germany."

    So Hitler's wish of Germany ruling Europe came true after all. Great job liberals!

    Yes, the EU would be exactly “Hitler’s wish”. That makes absolutely sense.

  45. @anonymous
    "What ultimately matters in terms of political power is employing armed men to collect tax revenue."

    Ever so true, Steve.

    As a novice historian, I'd always wondered why the Ottoman Empire was so aggressive in gobbling up this or that area in the Balkans or why England and France (back when parts of coastal France were held by the English crown) and then later, France and Germany in the 18th century squabbled over territory adjoining both countries.

    And of course, as you point out, tax revenue was the key to the whole thing, which is why some extraordinarily productive areas are plums. And having the armed men to collect those revenues at the point of a pike or bayonet is in the final analysis, what political power is all about.

    And speaking of taxes, today, July 4. What disturbed the American revolutionaries was not taxes per se, but lack of representation in England's parliament; their being consigned to second rate citizen status when they looked upon themselves as full born British citizens with all the rights that that franchise entailed. Oddly enough, they resented their not being treated as British enough!

    What if the British had called their bluff and said, sure we’ll make room for you in Parliament. They’d be a minority interest for sure and effectively powerless

    No, the Americans had a hidden agenda- more freedom from taxes and self rule on their own terms.

  46. Germany remains a conquered, subordinated nation by all appearance – merely an economic and political engine of her captor.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Army_installations_in_Germany

  47. @anon
    What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately? The native German population is currently worse affected than anyone else by the globalist agenda, besides having to serve as convenient scapegoats for everyone else's misery.

    Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And – what is most important – Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not.

    So lets continue with German-bashing till they improve.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    "Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And – what is most important – Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not."

    Exactly. Merkel is still in office and in apparently good standing with a sufficient number of her fellow Germans nearly a year after her disastrous unilateral decision. I realize many other factors are involved. But I think that's the most salient one.

    FWIW: my heritage is 1/4 English, 1/4 German and 1/2 Serbo-Croatian.
  48. @Bies Podkrakowski
    F*k this Commonwealth crap with all its multinational kumbaya.

    It was workable when people to the East of Polish lands were simple "local folk", without their own national identity. Now they have their own Belorussian or Ukrainian nations so its not gong to work. Just wait before those productive Ukrainians that we imported start issuing demands.

    No thank you very much. I like my mono-cultural, boring country where nothing of interests ever happens. Generation of my grandparents paid terrible price for it in ethnic and destruction of much of Polish cultural heritage. And now we are going to waste this because we want a minuscule increase in mythical GDP or because we want to dream old, imperial dreams?

    No.

    Should be: “ethnic cleansings and destruction “.

  49. Angela Merkel of Germany, known for her cautious, step-by-step policies

    The NYT has inarguably become equivalent to the Soviet era Pravda.

    • Replies: @celt darnell
    Pravda was more honest.
  50. @anon
    What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately? The native German population is currently worse affected than anyone else by the globalist agenda, besides having to serve as convenient scapegoats for everyone else's misery.

    anon writes, “What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately?” I think it’s a spinoff of the constant demonization of the Germans that’s been going on for at least the last seven decades. There’s an incessant focus on a twelve year period in the thousand year history of this ancient and creative European people who gave us the printing press, the automobile, and the jet engine, as well as pioneering whole branches of science. Gregor Mendel, the founder of genetics, was a Sudeten-German monk. You could also say that the Germans also produced some really nice tunes. As always in these matters, the question is, cui bono?

  51. @anon
    What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately? The native German population is currently worse affected than anyone else by the globalist agenda, besides having to serve as convenient scapegoats for everyone else's misery.

    anon writes, “What is it with the gratiuitous anti-German hyperbole here lately?” I think it’s a spinoff of the constant demonization of the Germans that’s been going on for at least the last seven decades. There’s an incessant focus on a twelve year period in the thousand year history of this ancient and creative European people who gave us the printing press, the automobile, and the jet engine, as well as pioneering whole branches of science. Gregor Mendel, the founder of genetics, was a Sudeten-German monk. You could also say that the Germans also produced some really nice tunes. As always in these matters, the question is, cui bono?

  52. As much as I like my individual German friends, a dominant, unified Germany has been bad for Europe for as long as — and whenever there has been — a dominant, unified Germany.

    It’s an ambitious idea, I know, but Britain should offer to walk-back Brexit in exchange for Germany dividing herself into three independent political entities — East, West and South Germany. Tell the Germans they have a moral duty to abolish themselves; in any event, this sort of self-abolition would do a lot more good than the other kind.

    https://benkurtzblog.wordpress.com/2016/07/01/germany-wrecks-europe-again/

  53. Germany fur Alles & Poland… 1939… Hmmmmm.

    History doesn’t always repeat, but it sure rhymes sometimes.

  54. This might well represent a general principle: progressive ideologies, once they impose crimestop, usually wind up benefiting the most hilariously ironic individuals: transgenderism helps Robber Barons get richer; anti-nationalism makes the German Chancellor more autocratically powerful; feminism gives a sexual-harassing male President an excuse to get around the Constitutional amendment imposing term limits, etc.

    The more like Hitler Europe tries not to be, the more like Hitler it becomes. If the left wants to prevent nationalism, stop the militant leftist and global-think policies.

  55. IBC says:

    Which means that Germany may have to take command, after all. It’s a delicate task. But now that Germany finds itself on center stage, it might as well perform.

    Or in other words: If Mother Merkel thinks it’s best to keep on serving her children kebabs, she should stop asking them what they’d like for dinner…

  56. @Bies Podkrakowski
    Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And - what is most important - Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not.

    So lets continue with German-bashing till they improve.

    “Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And – what is most important – Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not.”

    Exactly. Merkel is still in office and in apparently good standing with a sufficient number of her fellow Germans nearly a year after her disastrous unilateral decision. I realize many other factors are involved. But I think that’s the most salient one.

    FWIW: my heritage is 1/4 English, 1/4 German and 1/2 Serbo-Croatian.

    • Replies: @Ye Antient Oliphant
    Unfortunately this is a lesson that every nation needs to learn for itself. The Germans have had very little experience with racial diversity so still have the naive optimism concerning it that has long since disappeared from other European countries.

    Every country thinks of itself as different, and that the problems/experiences of other countries don't apply to it.
  57. @Horseball
    Don't get overtaken with anti-German sentiment. Trying tp prevent German domunation on the Continent is a fool's errand that lead to WW I. It's the largest and most economically advanced country and, with the obvious exceptions, has enjoyed good and productive domestic politics. Their politics even has the salubrious feature that upscale-lifestyle-sexual-revolution lefties (Greens) are split off from the trade unionists (SPD). So, you do not have the bizarre situation where autoworkers are supporting tree huggers and drawn into World War T.

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe. It doesn't have the same tenor as here because they never had Calvinism. There are no - and never were - Ted Cruzes in Germany.

    Is everyone aware that Germany does not have gay marriage (although partnerships w/tax benefits) or gay adoption?

    That their abortion laws are very restrictive?

    That women's labor participation rate (particularly in the former West Germany) is extremely low? Latch key children are still looked down upon. This conservatism is the main reason the birth rate is so low - the idea is do it completely right or don't do it.

    Surely Merkel has made mistake with the asylum seekers. I think this can be mitigated. The German model of consensus driven politic allows for forceful changes of course that can be subtle to the outside. Look up Agenda 2010 and Hartz IV. I expect there will be a similar change in course here. As Steve has always counseled, lots of unspoken or below the radar things go on that are not obvious. A few officials tightening their scrutiny, and so on. Furthermore, no matter what the kaws are, the place is never going to be hospitable to Middle Eastern immigrants.

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe.

    Really?

    Why then, the failure to reproduce? Of all the major European nations, its demographics are the most disastrous. Social conservatism by definition results in a healthy birthrate. Contrary to your assertion, the collapsing German birthrate has nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with social liberal hedonism.

    Germany’s abortion laws are hardly any more restrictive than the UK’s. They are still far more “liberal” than Ireland’s.

    Gay marriage? Anyone here want to take a bet against gay marriage being legal in Germany within the next ten years? A single ECHR judgement will do it — you don’t even need German consent.

    Don’t even get me started on German political correctness and hostility to freedom of speech.

    “Trying tp [sic] prevent German domunation [sic] on the Continent is a fool’s errand that lead to WW I.”

    That’s one interpretation — another is that, contrary to what the Germans may have believed, no-one was obliged to accept that domination.

    More to the point, given its current trajectory, present-day German domination of Europe looks to be as short-lived as it proved to be in the recent past.

    • Replies: @Horseball
    Please take a look at statistics. The abortion rate in Germany (7 per 1,000 women) is less than half that of France & UK. The out of wedlock birth rate in former West Germany is around 10%. (Granted much higher in former DDR). Those two numbers alone suggest that people are being neither careless nor carefree with their reproductive habits.

    As to your claim that social conservatism leads to high birthrates, I believe that is contrary to the Affordable Family Formation thesis so popular here at iSteve. Also look up the "capstone" marriage model, ie don't get married and have kids until you are "set" financially or otherwise. "Hedonism" is something some NRO idiot would say, like "cheese eating surrender monkeys". If you want to believe that every industrialized naion in the world has suddenly plunged into hedonism, be my guest. I think it would be very difficult to show an increase in hedonism in the past 50 years. Just look at how much people used to drink and smoke back then.

    Before anyone goes wagging their finger at Germans for their freedom of speech shortcomings (and they undoubtedly have some) what in the hell do you think is going on here? Ask Brendan Eich.

    As far as WW I goes, the principle is that the UK and France failed to accommodate the rise of Germany. Before then, France had always been the "Germany" of the continent ex-Russia. If you look at what has veen written about China in the past years, you will see the parallels that we are trying to avoid. So, we don't just try to drustrate them at every turn. And we shouldn't do the same with Germany.

    Ultimately, the relative power will in the first place be economic. All of the Euro countries freeloaded off of Germany for about 10 years, but instead of getting competitive as Germany did (Agenda 2010, Hartz IV) they decided to give themselves a property boom. You don't see these places, even the worst such as Greece, going out of the Euro because they would be nowhere without it. Look at what Spanish unemployment was like pre-Euro. Before they were a poor country with 20% unemployment, now they're a rich one. Which would you rather be? Ireland was never not-poor in its entire history -did anyone give a shit? Now, they do, because it's in the Euro.
  58. @AndrewR

    Angela Merkel of Germany, known for her cautious, step-by-step policies
     
    The NYT has inarguably become equivalent to the Soviet era Pravda.

    Pravda was more honest.

  59. There is a reason that all that feminism, transgender, multiculturalism stuff works, and why Merkel is still Chancellor. There is a fairly cold war between groups of Whites (Calvinists and non-Calvinists, i.e. SWPL virtue signalers and “rednecks”) and between the sexes.

    For example, what’s not to like for most German women with the rapeyougee invasion? They get plenty of twenty something male swaggering louts in tracksuits with low IQs and Dark Ages attitudes. If that is not tingle generating for most German women (who of course don’t have to live anywhere NEAR said swaggering tracksuit louts and encounter them from a distance) I don’t know what is. Bonus, they can stick to their male peers who are just too beta male boring.

    If the disastrous cultural/social/political split in places like 1920’s Italy, Germany, and Spain gave the world Mussolini, Hitler, and Franco (the least bad of the lot btw); the same split seems to give us today, an endless rapeyougee invasion. I don’t see Merkel and her cronies intent on goosing GDP to avoid Japan style inflation and thus financial ruin, and Merkel’s public backing falling apart any time soon nor those negatively affected able to modify policy inside or outside Germany.

  60. Sean says:

    Enoch Powell in 1971:-

    Accordingly a new balance of forces has somehow to be devised and contrived within which Germany can be peacefully reunited. What that new balance is, let alone how it can be realized, is a crux with which the Minister struggles manfully, but in vain, because he is duty bound to purport to reconcile it with the ‘political unification of Western Europe’ to which the Federal Government is committed.

    There are, roughly speaking, four possible patterns, or classes of pattern (V (1) EEC including reunited Germany v the Warsaw powers.

    (2) EEC v Warsaw powers including reunited Germany.

    (3) Reunited Germany v an entente between the EEC (less West Germany) and the Warsaw powers.

    (4) United Europe including reunited Germany v one or more extra-European blocs. There are two variants of this, where ‘ Europe’ (a) does, or (b) does not, include Soviet Russia (from its border with Poland to the Pacific).

    Of these alternatives, no. 2 is not open to serious discussion: quite apart from any reaction on the part of West Germany’s allies, her own vested interest in the retention of the capitalist system, as well as the economic and physical preponderance of West over East Germany, rule it out. The mirror-image no. 1 looks equally intolerable, viewed from the East: a political unit extending from the North Cape to Sicily and from Ireland to East Germany’s eastern frontiers would appear from the East to be a monster, threatening both in itself and in the magnetic attraction it would exercise over the Danubian countries. The natural deduction from this dilemma is that the embodiment of West Germany in a politically unified Western Europe is irreconcilable with German reunification; and this train of thought points to pattern no. 3, with German reunification’disinfected’ and deprived as far as possible of dangerous potential by her not forming , part of any large political unit. […]

    My bet is that German reunification will drive out Western Political unification and the EEC: some day, I don’t know how, or when, I think we are going to get pattern no. 3.

  61. I heard that Merkel wants to replace the EU anthem with this:

  62. @szopen
    I am a Polish nationalist by all western definitions of this word, but I am also a realist. Even though the words about rising Poland role are like honey on myheart, the truth is:
    (1) Poland's GDP per capita is still 75% of EU average, way behind Germany's
    (2) We have huge 7% unemployment
    (3) GDP growth is predicted to be much smaller than previously thought, and may be just 3% this year.
    (4) What's the most important: millions of young Poles emmigrated and will never return. TFR rates are lowest in Europe almost. Meaning we are facing demographic catastrophe. No nation can achieve economic growth and political power when half of population approaches 50 years old, as may soon be in case of my motherland.

    Unless the (4) from above will be addressed, my country won't become new European regional power.

    In the meantime, more than 80% Poles are still pro-EU (though the percentage is the lower, the younger the age group).

    what’s the problem? Why can’t Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave? Frankly, the Poles I met in Britain working in the hotels didn’t seem to be all that excited. They were working crummy jobs and probably living in crummier and crowded arrangements. Are those service jobs really better than what they can get in Poland?

    I sometimes even wonder if the Mexicans working in our hotels and backyards are actually better off than when they were in Mexico.

    • Replies: @szopen
    Why can’t Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave?
    You are not supposed to ask the questions like these. Those sound dangerously nationalist and are too close to asking why, 37 years after 1989, former oppositionists are often poor while their opponents from communist secret services are quite well off. And that would endanger our historical compromise, which was inevitable, which is admired by whole world and which, of course, had no alternatives!
    , @szopen
    Why can’t Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave?

    And more seriously: we can and we do, but it's too slowly for the taste of younger generation. Poland GDP rised almost by half after 2004. Corruption went down. Unemployment went down. But still, when you are living in a small village in "eastern wall", the fact that Warsaw region is richer than average EU region is not really relevant to your happiness.

  63. @Kylie
    "Judging after polls our Teutonic friends still like it. Merkel and CDU approval ratings are high. And – what is most important – Germans still want to share their migrant bounty with their neighbors whether they want it or not."

    Exactly. Merkel is still in office and in apparently good standing with a sufficient number of her fellow Germans nearly a year after her disastrous unilateral decision. I realize many other factors are involved. But I think that's the most salient one.

    FWIW: my heritage is 1/4 English, 1/4 German and 1/2 Serbo-Croatian.

    Unfortunately this is a lesson that every nation needs to learn for itself. The Germans have had very little experience with racial diversity so still have the naive optimism concerning it that has long since disappeared from other European countries.

    Every country thinks of itself as different, and that the problems/experiences of other countries don’t apply to it.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    That explains Germany opening its borders to unassimilable hordes. It doesn't explain Merkel insisting that other countries follow Germany's lead.

    It seems Germany needs to learn more than one lesson.
  64. @celt darnell

    Germany is by far the most socially conservative advanced country in Europe.
     
    Really?

    Why then, the failure to reproduce? Of all the major European nations, its demographics are the most disastrous. Social conservatism by definition results in a healthy birthrate. Contrary to your assertion, the collapsing German birthrate has nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with social liberal hedonism.

    Germany's abortion laws are hardly any more restrictive than the UK's. They are still far more "liberal" than Ireland's.

    Gay marriage? Anyone here want to take a bet against gay marriage being legal in Germany within the next ten years? A single ECHR judgement will do it -- you don't even need German consent.

    Don't even get me started on German political correctness and hostility to freedom of speech.

    "Trying tp [sic] prevent German domunation [sic] on the Continent is a fool’s errand that lead to WW I."

    That's one interpretation -- another is that, contrary to what the Germans may have believed, no-one was obliged to accept that domination.

    More to the point, given its current trajectory, present-day German domination of Europe looks to be as short-lived as it proved to be in the recent past.

    Please take a look at statistics. The abortion rate in Germany (7 per 1,000 women) is less than half that of France & UK. The out of wedlock birth rate in former West Germany is around 10%. (Granted much higher in former DDR). Those two numbers alone suggest that people are being neither careless nor carefree with their reproductive habits.

    As to your claim that social conservatism leads to high birthrates, I believe that is contrary to the Affordable Family Formation thesis so popular here at iSteve. Also look up the “capstone” marriage model, ie don’t get married and have kids until you are “set” financially or otherwise. “Hedonism” is something some NRO idiot would say, like “cheese eating surrender monkeys”. If you want to believe that every industrialized naion in the world has suddenly plunged into hedonism, be my guest. I think it would be very difficult to show an increase in hedonism in the past 50 years. Just look at how much people used to drink and smoke back then.

    Before anyone goes wagging their finger at Germans for their freedom of speech shortcomings (and they undoubtedly have some) what in the hell do you think is going on here? Ask Brendan Eich.

    As far as WW I goes, the principle is that the UK and France failed to accommodate the rise of Germany. Before then, France had always been the “Germany” of the continent ex-Russia. If you look at what has veen written about China in the past years, you will see the parallels that we are trying to avoid. So, we don’t just try to drustrate them at every turn. And we shouldn’t do the same with Germany.

    Ultimately, the relative power will in the first place be economic. All of the Euro countries freeloaded off of Germany for about 10 years, but instead of getting competitive as Germany did (Agenda 2010, Hartz IV) they decided to give themselves a property boom. You don’t see these places, even the worst such as Greece, going out of the Euro because they would be nowhere without it. Look at what Spanish unemployment was like pre-Euro. Before they were a poor country with 20% unemployment, now they’re a rich one. Which would you rather be? Ireland was never not-poor in its entire history -did anyone give a shit? Now, they do, because it’s in the Euro.

  65. @Formerly CARealist
    what's the problem? Why can't Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave? Frankly, the Poles I met in Britain working in the hotels didn't seem to be all that excited. They were working crummy jobs and probably living in crummier and crowded arrangements. Are those service jobs really better than what they can get in Poland?

    I sometimes even wonder if the Mexicans working in our hotels and backyards are actually better off than when they were in Mexico.

    Why can’t Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave?
    You are not supposed to ask the questions like these. Those sound dangerously nationalist and are too close to asking why, 37 years after 1989, former oppositionists are often poor while their opponents from communist secret services are quite well off. And that would endanger our historical compromise, which was inevitable, which is admired by whole world and which, of course, had no alternatives!

  66. @Formerly CARealist
    what's the problem? Why can't Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave? Frankly, the Poles I met in Britain working in the hotels didn't seem to be all that excited. They were working crummy jobs and probably living in crummier and crowded arrangements. Are those service jobs really better than what they can get in Poland?

    I sometimes even wonder if the Mexicans working in our hotels and backyards are actually better off than when they were in Mexico.

    Why can’t Poland tap its own resources and start making money? Why do the young people feel that they need to leave?

    And more seriously: we can and we do, but it’s too slowly for the taste of younger generation. Poland GDP rised almost by half after 2004. Corruption went down. Unemployment went down. But still, when you are living in a small village in “eastern wall”, the fact that Warsaw region is richer than average EU region is not really relevant to your happiness.

  67. leading not to democracy, but to the German Chancellor autocratically ruling Europe as god-empress

    The usual crap when you’re talking about Europe. Won’t happen.
    There are several blocks in the EU, all with their own agendas & ideas, working together where it fits & against each other where it doesn’t. Beside that, every nation still has its own preferences. The EU is about balancing all that, which is what a lot of people don’t really understand because it’s too complicated for their simple minds & then they get the impression of some undemocratic, secret forces at work. If Germany would become too powerful, the EU would simply break up.

    The problem is that the EU leaders up to now were too idealistic, utopians essentially. Utopias usually don’t work. Once they realize that (& they seem to be on that way) the currently rough seas will calm down. Best would then be a core EU of north-western countries (with Euro & Schengen), perhaps even as a federation, the rest of the EU as simply a free-trade zone & on top a number of (to varying degrees) associated countries. Together with a sensible immigration policy this would probably be best for the Union.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "If Germany would become too powerful, the EU would simply break up."

    Uh ... hasn't that been my explanation of what's motivating Brexit: Germany getting too powerful?

  68. @bossel

    leading not to democracy, but to the German Chancellor autocratically ruling Europe as god-empress
     
    The usual crap when you're talking about Europe. Won't happen.
    There are several blocks in the EU, all with their own agendas & ideas, working together where it fits & against each other where it doesn't. Beside that, every nation still has its own preferences. The EU is about balancing all that, which is what a lot of people don't really understand because it's too complicated for their simple minds & then they get the impression of some undemocratic, secret forces at work. If Germany would become too powerful, the EU would simply break up.

    The problem is that the EU leaders up to now were too idealistic, utopians essentially. Utopias usually don't work. Once they realize that (& they seem to be on that way) the currently rough seas will calm down. Best would then be a core EU of north-western countries (with Euro & Schengen), perhaps even as a federation, the rest of the EU as simply a free-trade zone & on top a number of (to varying degrees) associated countries. Together with a sensible immigration policy this would probably be best for the Union.

    “If Germany would become too powerful, the EU would simply break up.”

    Uh … hasn’t that been my explanation of what’s motivating Brexit: Germany getting too powerful?

  69. One interesting point regarding Brexit and its consequences is that the problem it creates builds on itself.

    If England won’t accommodate the “refugees”, then the burden is greater on the remaining countries in the EU. If another country likewise pulls out, the burden becomes still greater. Each country that pulls out creates a greater incentive for the next country to pull out.

    It may be that those refugees will have to be distributed only among the die hard countries, Germany prominent among them. One wonders if the Germans as a people really have the will to endure that magnitude of onslaught.

  70. @Ye Antient Oliphant
    Unfortunately this is a lesson that every nation needs to learn for itself. The Germans have had very little experience with racial diversity so still have the naive optimism concerning it that has long since disappeared from other European countries.

    Every country thinks of itself as different, and that the problems/experiences of other countries don't apply to it.

    That explains Germany opening its borders to unassimilable hordes. It doesn’t explain Merkel insisting that other countries follow Germany’s lead.

    It seems Germany needs to learn more than one lesson.

  71. Poland is a great example that religion is not only good for spiritual delusions but political as well. You see, Polacks believe that their great religion makes them equal with the western Europeans. Funny how vintage 1939 Germans didn’t think so. If Nazi Germany remained in power for few more years, Polacks would have been slaughtered like pigs to the last one.

    Even now in post Brexit GB – one of the most targeted groups for racial hatred and abuse were the Polish. I guess that’s because the British – like their German cousins – think of the Polish as equal.

    Religion is one of the most powerful tools for manipulation – in Poland’s case – it’s even easier, because the west doesn’t have to do anything at all, Polish use their religion to manipulate themselves with it on their own.

    In their twisted minds they are the defenders of the western civilization against the wild hordes from the east – Russia. How does that make any sense? How can it make any sense to defend against civilization – the Russian one – compared to whom you are inferior? Who needs defending from whom?

    If you compare Russian achievements in arts, science, not to mention military achievements – which one is the inferior culture? The only prominent civilizational products of Poland that I can think of are: Chopin, Marie Currie and Joseph Konrad. But yeah, keep on defending, Europe thinks of you as equals and they’re going to be very grateful to you one day. They might even elect another Pope from your ranks just to keep you believing that you’re equal.

    • Replies: @Bies Podkrakowski
    I am sorry that my countryman took your job.
  72. @Cyrano
    Poland is a great example that religion is not only good for spiritual delusions but political as well. You see, Polacks believe that their great religion makes them equal with the western Europeans. Funny how vintage 1939 Germans didn’t think so. If Nazi Germany remained in power for few more years, Polacks would have been slaughtered like pigs to the last one.

    Even now in post Brexit GB – one of the most targeted groups for racial hatred and abuse were the Polish. I guess that’s because the British – like their German cousins – think of the Polish as equal.

    Religion is one of the most powerful tools for manipulation – in Poland’s case – it’s even easier, because the west doesn’t have to do anything at all, Polish use their religion to manipulate themselves with it on their own.

    In their twisted minds they are the defenders of the western civilization against the wild hordes from the east – Russia. How does that make any sense? How can it make any sense to defend against civilization – the Russian one – compared to whom you are inferior? Who needs defending from whom?

    If you compare Russian achievements in arts, science, not to mention military achievements – which one is the inferior culture? The only prominent civilizational products of Poland that I can think of are: Chopin, Marie Currie and Joseph Konrad. But yeah, keep on defending, Europe thinks of you as equals and they're going to be very grateful to you one day. They might even elect another Pope from your ranks just to keep you believing that you're equal.

    I am sorry that my countryman took your job.

    • Agree: Kylie

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