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NYT Editorial: "False Alarms About a National Crime Wave"
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An NYT editorial:

False Alarms About a National Crime Wave
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD NOV. 27, 2015

The headlines are alarming: Murder is up around the country, caused by anything from more guns to a heroin epidemic to the so-called “Ferguson Effect” — the disputed idea that police officers have become less aggressive out of fear that their actions will be recorded by civilians and criticized after the fact.

Or it could be that the celebration of Black Lives Matters encourages blacks to murder other blacks. We don’t really know what’s going on, so we shouldn’t yet rule out potential causes.

As with so many debates about crime in America, it helps to examine the actual numbers.

It is true that in many cities, murders in 2015 are on pace to surpass 2014 totals. In a new analysis of murder and crime rates in the country’s 30 largest cities, the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. New York City, which had 333 murders in 2014, is predicted to have 357 murders by the end of 2015.

While that is troubling, it is not evidence that America has fallen back into a lawless pit of chaos and death. A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: the rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter century, and is at its lowest in decades.

If the goal is to assess the responsibility of the Obama Administration, the national media, and Soros-style NGOs for their current influence, why is it more meaningful to look at last quarter century rather than to compare 2015 to pre-Ferguson 2014 as Carl Bialik did in FiveThirtyEight?

For the 60 biggest cities (he initially found data for only 59 of the 60 but added Anaheim later), he compared 2014 through the first week of August as his pre-Ferguson base to the same period in 2015 as his post-Ferguson treatment era.Bialik found a 16% increase in homicides in the 60 biggest cities.

In contrast, the Brennan Center report only examined 25 of the 30 biggest cities.

This long-term decline has been well reported, but increasingly, it is getting overlooked in the rush to identify a new crime wave.

What the NYT is doing here is as if George W. Bush had said, “Well, sure, a few thousand American soldiers have gotten killed since I started my war in Iraq, but if you compare that to the long term going back to say, December 7, 1941, the trend of Americans getting killed in combat is down. And that’s what really matters!”

As the Brennan Center analysis shows, overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014. For understandable reasons, murders get the most attention, but they accounted for only 1.2 percent of all violent crime in 2014.

Homicides get counted pretty accurately because there is a dead body to be dealt with. It’s not clear that other crimes are counted precisely. Over time, victims tend to change their habits about whether it’s worth reporting crimes to the police:

Two lessons emerge from this data. One is that when crime rates are so low, even small changes can appear large. The other is that small sample sizes based on arbitrary time frames are nearly always nonrepresentative.

I did the math on the FiveThirtyEight data:

… the total number of homicides in 2014 through approximately August 8, 2014 was 2,955. Through the same period this year, the total number of homicides has been 3,437 for an increase of 482 more dead human beings.

That’s not a small sample size.

It helps Bialik’s numbers that he has 60 cities rather than the Brennan report’s 25.

Actually, homicide rates don’t jump around all that much from year to year. The biggest one-year increase in national homicides over the last 30 years was 12% in 1990 at the peak of the spread of crack, so 2015 is shaping up to be comparably disastrous.

The report does, however, single out five cities — Baltimore, Detroit, Milwaukee, New Orleans, and St. Louis — where murder rates remain far higher than the national average and have reached levels not seen since the 1990s.

Note that three of the five cities with the biggest increase in homicides aren’t in the Brennan 25 cities.

In particular, the two cities with the biggest absolute increase in dead bodies — Baltimore and St. Louis — are the two cities where the Black Lives Matter Eye of Soros has focused with the most malevolent intensity.

The murder spikes in these cities do not represent a sprawling national epidemic of violence. Instead, they appear rooted in what the report calls “profound economic decline” and, as elsewhere, the violence in those places falls most heavily on communities of color.

In particular, the cities with the big increases in murders in the post-Ferguson era tend to be heavily black.

Misunderstanding crime rates — or worse, using them for political purposes — makes it hard to have an informed debate about which policies will be most likely to keep violence down.

Indeed.

 
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  1. OT

    Just in case you missed this, a MUST read on the Harvard Law hate crime hoax:

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

    Far and away the best counter attack against this silliness ever. Devastating because it makes the hoaxers look infantile and silly.

    And the facts are almost as funny as the Haven Monahan hoax. “Havenly” delicious, you might say.

    (I posted this way down in a previous comment thread, and so thought you might have missed it. If you saw it, then sorry about the repost.)

    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    Thanks for this link. However, right off the bat the author errs, insofar as he references "electrical tape", which is vinyl, instead of "gaffer's tape", which is cloth.

    The best part of the article is the photo of the Ghanaian exhorting a crowd of ten people with a bullhorn:

    https://royallasses.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/6vormawor4.jpg?w=604

    Delusions of grandeur, anyone?
  2. Disgusting NYT analysis, pretending that the long-term downward trend somehow absolves Obama of the blood on his hands. It is exactly the opposite.

    the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. …

    A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: the rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter century, and is at its lowest in decades.

    If you want to know how many people Obama and BLM have killed, you should look at the deviation from the long-term trend. Because the long-term trend is down, the 11 percent increase UNDERSTATES the carnage. The body count attributable to BLM/Obama is even larger than the raw 11 percent increase. 11 percent of 14,000 murders per year means BLM/Obama have killed AT LEAST 1,500 Americans, mostly black.

    Disgusting.

    • Replies: @eah
    Obama and BLM have killed

    Obama is a jerk and #BlackLivesMatter is bullshit. Police chiefs around the country ought to remind their charges daily to do their jobs, despite what may be at the moment somewhat more difficult circumstances.

    But it's also "disgusting" in another way that you seek to blame Obama/BLM for the fact ghetto Blacks are killing each other. If you believe that, why not start one of those online White House petitions to condemn or seek charges against them for opening their mouths?

    Probably 90+% of the people who comment here are at least middle class white males -- that certainly describes me. Go read about the Indianapolis home invasion murder of Amanda Blackburn -- those are the kinds of Blacks who are killing each other. And I'm supposed to be concerned about that? I'm supposed to see that as a problem? And look for someone to blame? It's all a lot of intellectual posing by poseurs.
    , @Stan D Mute

    BLM/Obama have killed AT LEAST 1,500 Americans, mostly black.
     
    What's really perverse is that a horrible terrible evil racist like me is far more broken up about those 1500 additional African deaths than the Race-Baiter in Chief. Admittedly, I'd be more broken up if those were 1500 whites murdered by Africans than the current African:African situation, but just as leftists cannot comprehend statistics and probabilities, they cannot understand hierarchies of attachment, only those of status. I'd rather see a pile of 1500 dead cats than 1500 dead dogs, but above all I'd rather not see any dead dogs or cats. For the leftist all that matters is status, such that African lives matter only if they're taken by white heterosexual males who aren't copulating with or eagerly cuckolded by Africans. Even then, it's not the African's life that matters, but the leftists' opportunity to claim and gloat over their imagined social status supremacy. How many leftists do we observe spending all their time in the ghetto forming human protective shields around the innocent vulnerable black bodies of the Africans being wantonly and egregiously gunned down by racist cops?
  3. Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years…“Without this technology, we estimate there would be no less than 50 000 and as many as 115000 homicides annually instead of an actual 15 000 to 20000,” they say in a report of the study in the journal Homicide Studies

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124155/

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks for the pointer. That brief BMJ piece references a 2002 paper Murder and Medicine
    The Lethality of Criminal Assault 1960-1999
    which has much more detail (40 pages). It was easy to find a PDF on the web, but I haven't had a chance to read it yet.
    , @Yngvar

    "...but for medical developments over the past 40 years..."
     
    Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is alive thanks to George W. Bush. She survived a bullet through the brain because the surgeon on duty had just returned from a tour in Afghanistan, were he had specialized in traumatic head injuries.

    Sorry, not W but Osama; Mrs. Giffords is alive today thanks to Mr. bin Laden.
  4. The violence in those places falls most heavily on communities of color.

    Love the passive voice. Is violence dropping from the sky? How does it know to hit “communities of color?” Is that like heat-seeking missiles? Vibrancy-seeking?

    • Agree: Harold, Mike Sylwester
    • Replies: @Anon7
    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is "gunfire erupted". I think it comes out of the ground... As opposed to "someone deliberately fired a gun to kill or injure", which you will never read.
    , @Big Bill
    Now that's just crazy. How can "violence fall" on colored folks when everybody knows its the "mean streets" that do all that killing in the ghetto?

    You ever see a "street" that "fell" on somebody? Hell no! It the other way 'round: it's people that fall in the streets! Streets cain't fall nowhere. They already ON the ground. Where they supposed to fall TO I axe you? They. Already. In. The. Dirt.
  5. These statistics that show a sharp uptick in homicides aren’t all that important or persuasive–until Mr. Michael Bloomberg and his various astroturf groups want to push more gun control–and then they will be dutifully trotted out by the goodthinkers of the NYT. In 1984, Orwell describes a scene where a senior Inner Party member is denouncing Eurasia at a rally and is handed a slip of paper, and without skipping a beat switches to denouncing East Asia. The editorial board of the Times would make good Inner Party members.

  6. @inertial

    The violence in those places falls most heavily on communities of color.
     
    Love the passive voice. Is violence dropping from the sky? How does it know to hit "communities of color?" Is that like heat-seeking missiles? Vibrancy-seeking?

    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is “gunfire erupted”. I think it comes out of the ground… As opposed to “someone deliberately fired a gun to kill or injure”, which you will never read.

    • Replies: @Stan D Mute

    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is “gunfire erupted”. I think it comes out of the ground
     
    Or "a fight broke out" describing an assault, "a robbery that went wrong" describing a rape/murder, or "in the wrong place at the wrong time" to describe an African murdering a white in racist rage.
  7. @FactsAreImportant
    OT

    Just in case you missed this, a MUST read on the Harvard Law hate crime hoax:

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

    Far and away the best counter attack against this silliness ever. Devastating because it makes the hoaxers look infantile and silly.

    And the facts are almost as funny as the Haven Monahan hoax. "Havenly" delicious, you might say.

    (I posted this way down in a previous comment thread, and so thought you might have missed it. If you saw it, then sorry about the repost.)

    Thanks for this link. However, right off the bat the author errs, insofar as he references “electrical tape”, which is vinyl, instead of “gaffer’s tape”, which is cloth.

    The best part of the article is the photo of the Ghanaian exhorting a crowd of ten people with a bullhorn:

    Delusions of grandeur, anyone?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks, I'll post. Where was that picture taken?
  8. “…the violence in those places falls most heavily on communities of color.” (NYT)

    So, is there any correlation between the size of those communities and their city’s place on the list? (Note: the US is about 12% African American.)

    Here are the top ten cities from highest to lowest rate of homicide increase:

    City, Homicide +Incr/-Decr, % African-American
    Baltimore, +77, 64%
    St. Louis, +51, 49%
    Chicago, +50, 32%
    Milwaukee, +45, 40%
    Houston, +44, 23%
    Washington, +32, 50%
    New Orleans, +22, 60%
    Louisville, +21, 33%
    New York, +18, 25%
    Tulsa, +17, 16%

    And here are the bottom ten cities, from lowest rate of homicide decrease:

    City, Homicide +Incr/-Decr, % African-American
    Boston, -15, 24%
    Memphis, -13, 31%
    Las Vegas, -10, 11%
    Riverside, -4, 7%
    Arlington, -4, 9%
    Miami, -4, 19%
    Fresno, -4, 8%,
    Corpus Christi, -3, 14%
    Santa Ana, -3, 1%
    Raleigh, -3, 29%

  9. @SPMoore8
    Thanks for this link. However, right off the bat the author errs, insofar as he references "electrical tape", which is vinyl, instead of "gaffer's tape", which is cloth.

    The best part of the article is the photo of the Ghanaian exhorting a crowd of ten people with a bullhorn:

    https://royallasses.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/6vormawor4.jpg?w=604

    Delusions of grandeur, anyone?

    Thanks, I’ll post. Where was that picture taken?

    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    According to the link below, it was taken October 23 outside the "Caspersen Student Center", which apparently at Harvard Law School, according to a quick Google peek.

    I'm glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

  10. From now on, every paper and magazine will call the Fergusson Effect “debunked”.

    • Replies: @Abe

    From now on, every paper and magazine will call the Fergusson Effect “debunked”.
     
    "Forget it, International Jew, it's Social Justice-tistics"

    Or how about,

    "Another SJW-edi mind trick- this is not the gun violence you are looking for."

    Seriously, homicides in St. Louis and Baltimore are going to be up almost 100% this year (both ground zero for BLM agitation) and the Ferguson police department was decapitated (wasn't the city manager/mayor also forced to resign?) out of spite by the Holder Justice Dept. when it couldn't indict any white cop over Michael Brown. Yet it's all statistical noise to the NYT, and will require decades of meta-studies to sort out some day so let's all be responsible and not say another thing until then.

    Instead, let's talk about how no refugee has ever committed an act of terrorism against the US, and even if one did, how can you punish an entire group for the actions of a lone individual, and if it's 1000's, well the majority is still peaceful, and if a majority, as long as there is a single....
  11. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks, I'll post. Where was that picture taken?

    According to the link below, it was taken October 23 outside the “Caspersen Student Center”, which apparently at Harvard Law School, according to a quick Google peek.

    I’m glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    I’m glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/
     

    It's silly for another reason. Look at the body language of the audience, whom I presume to be the "protesters". They seem to have no interest in the "protest". They just look bored or like they want to be somewhere else.
  12. Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who's counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers
    , @TangoMan
    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    Here, two can play at that game. Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans, so see, there's not really a pitbull problem and you have nothing to fear when you walk up to pet a barking pitbull straining on his leash and looking as though he wants to attack you. Don't believe your lying eyes, believe counter-intuitive arguments.

    You can mash up all sorts of facts and figures and come up with nonsensical, counter-intuitive conclusion.
    , @Anonymous
    He's just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by "the reverse"), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn't even seem to realize he needs this number though.

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn't mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.
    , @Ezra
    I do feel sorry for Noah Smith: smart enough to understand the statistics; too sincere to ignore them; too weak to come to terms with them.

    But he does have a point. Whites try to insulate themselves from the worst blacks and often succeed, but whites are too numerous and blacks too poor for blacks to insulate themselves from the worst whites*. In fact, many whites are able to insulate themselves from the worst whites and forget they exist. But they do.

    *Obviously, in this statistic, "whites" includes Hispanics, but there are some pretty terrible white white people too.
    , @Doorway
    Some people twist facts and statistics around so much they come up with the opposite of reality. They know this, but report it anyway. Those people are known as liberal intellectuals. I tend to take anything they say with a huge grain of salt. That is, on the rare occasion that I bother any more with reading anything they put out. Apparently, increasingly larger percentages of the US are agreeing with me, since the audiences of NYT and news commentary shows on MSNBC, etc, have been consistently dropping year by year.
  13. There was a hook on the internet yesterday about the “ten most dangerous places in America” or some such, and since I had the day off and my feasting was done I did a bad thing and clicked the bait. So anyway there were ten cities in the US listed, all of them high crime. There were various common denominators. One can guess what they were.

    Of course economic depression and race and crime tend to go together. I don’t want to be cynical about this, and I don’t want to think that things cannot get better, but surely after 50 years blaming it *all* on racism just isn’t working anymore.

  14. @Dave Pinsen
    Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/670340436368621568

    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who’s counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers

    • Replies: @Antonymous
    "What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who’s counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers"

    Does this include justifiable homicide from self-defense? Mendacious stat if so. If not, Noah Smith's data does not reflect the National Victimization Survey's results.
    , @ben tillman

    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year.
     
    No, it means that if Whites kill 50 Blacks and Blacks kill 90 Whites, the Black victims come from a smaller population, and thus per capita victimization is higher (2.7 times as high in this example). Of course, the fact that the small number of Blacks kills so many Whites means that the per capita victimizing rate is more like 8x the White victimizing rate under this example.
  15. Nicholas Stix writes about this. Go to his blog and search “crime” and especially “disappearing crime”.

    http://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/

  16. @Charles Tunata

    Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years...“Without this technology, we estimate there would be no less than 50 000 and as many as 115000 homicides annually instead of an actual 15 000 to 20000,” they say in a report of the study in the journal Homicide Studies
     
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124155/

    Thanks for the pointer. That brief BMJ piece references a 2002 paper Murder and Medicine
    The Lethality of Criminal Assault 1960-1999
    which has much more detail (40 pages). It was easy to find a PDF on the web, but I haven’t had a chance to read it yet.

  17. @Dave Pinsen
    Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/670340436368621568

    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    Here, two can play at that game. Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans, so see, there’s not really a pitbull problem and you have nothing to fear when you walk up to pet a barking pitbull straining on his leash and looking as though he wants to attack you. Don’t believe your lying eyes, believe counter-intuitive arguments.

    You can mash up all sorts of facts and figures and come up with nonsensical, counter-intuitive conclusion.

    • Replies: @Mr. Jones
    It's Noah Smith. The worst "public intellectual" out there -- even dumber and less thoughtful than Genius T. Coates. Noah Smith is really big on virtue signalling, contrived statistics, and picking internet fights with his intellectual superiors. He's a joke.
    , @ben tillman

    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.
     
    The proper reply, to put things in perspective, is that "A black American is about 10x as likely to murder a white American [as] the reverse."

    10x or whatever the number is.
    , @dfordoom

    Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans,

     

    #PitbullLivesMatter
  18. @inertial

    The violence in those places falls most heavily on communities of color.
     
    Love the passive voice. Is violence dropping from the sky? How does it know to hit "communities of color?" Is that like heat-seeking missiles? Vibrancy-seeking?

    Now that’s just crazy. How can “violence fall” on colored folks when everybody knows its the “mean streets” that do all that killing in the ghetto?

    You ever see a “street” that “fell” on somebody? Hell no! It the other way ’round: it’s people that fall in the streets! Streets cain’t fall nowhere. They already ON the ground. Where they supposed to fall TO I axe you? They. Already. In. The. Dirt.

  19. In other words the New York Times thinks that black lives don’t matter.

  20. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Dave Pinsen
    Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/670340436368621568

    He’s just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by “the reverse”), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn’t even seem to realize he needs this number though.

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn’t mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.

    • Replies: @Stan D Mute

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn’t mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.
     
    You did the math to confirm that's how he arrived at his nonsense number? I assumed he had found a self-defense statistic showing whites much more likely to kill an African in self-defense than the reverse. In either case, this (charitably) reinforces my belief that leftists are innumerate. One less inclined to give leftists any benefit of doubt might say it proves leftists are antithetical to Truth.
    , @ben tillman

    He’s just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by “the reverse”), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn’t even seem to realize he needs this number though.
     
    I don't know -- Noah Smith is stupid and mendacious, and either could be the reason for this omission. However, I like your response better than mine, as it wraps the two numbers into one for each race.

    Good job, except that it's 2.2 times as likely, not 2.2 times more likely.

  21. @FactsAreImportant
    Disgusting NYT analysis, pretending that the long-term downward trend somehow absolves Obama of the blood on his hands. It is exactly the opposite.

    the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. ...

    A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: the rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter century, and is at its lowest in decades.
     
    If you want to know how many people Obama and BLM have killed, you should look at the deviation from the long-term trend. Because the long-term trend is down, the 11 percent increase UNDERSTATES the carnage. The body count attributable to BLM/Obama is even larger than the raw 11 percent increase. 11 percent of 14,000 murders per year means BLM/Obama have killed AT LEAST 1,500 Americans, mostly black.

    Disgusting.

    Obama and BLM have killed

    Obama is a jerk and #BlackLivesMatter is bullshit. Police chiefs around the country ought to remind their charges daily to do their jobs, despite what may be at the moment somewhat more difficult circumstances.

    But it’s also “disgusting” in another way that you seek to blame Obama/BLM for the fact ghetto Blacks are killing each other. If you believe that, why not start one of those online White House petitions to condemn or seek charges against them for opening their mouths?

    Probably 90+% of the people who comment here are at least middle class white males — that certainly describes me. Go read about the Indianapolis home invasion murder of Amanda Blackburn — those are the kinds of Blacks who are killing each other. And I’m supposed to be concerned about that? I’m supposed to see that as a problem? And look for someone to blame? It’s all a lot of intellectual posing by poseurs.

    • Replies: @bomag
    I’m supposed to see that as a problem?

    Managing the underclass is one duty of our political leaders today, like it or not. If Obama can't get this right, what can he get right?
    , @anon
    Amanda Blackburn was killed by overspill from the hyper violent black gang culture which the media - especially the NYT - have been covering up for 50 years.

    Anything that forces the truth about the black gang culture out into the open helps future Amanda Blackburns.
  22. @TangoMan
    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    Here, two can play at that game. Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans, so see, there's not really a pitbull problem and you have nothing to fear when you walk up to pet a barking pitbull straining on his leash and looking as though he wants to attack you. Don't believe your lying eyes, believe counter-intuitive arguments.

    You can mash up all sorts of facts and figures and come up with nonsensical, counter-intuitive conclusion.

    It’s Noah Smith. The worst “public intellectual” out there — even dumber and less thoughtful than Genius T. Coates. Noah Smith is really big on virtue signalling, contrived statistics, and picking internet fights with his intellectual superiors. He’s a joke.

  23. @SPMoore8
    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who's counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers

    “What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who’s counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers”

    Does this include justifiable homicide from self-defense? Mendacious stat if so. If not, Noah Smith’s data does not reflect the National Victimization Survey’s results.

  24. @Dave Pinsen
    Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/670340436368621568

    I do feel sorry for Noah Smith: smart enough to understand the statistics; too sincere to ignore them; too weak to come to terms with them.

    But he does have a point. Whites try to insulate themselves from the worst blacks and often succeed, but whites are too numerous and blacks too poor for blacks to insulate themselves from the worst whites*. In fact, many whites are able to insulate themselves from the worst whites and forget they exist. But they do.

    *Obviously, in this statistic, “whites” includes Hispanics, but there are some pretty terrible white white people too.

    • Replies: @Harold
    He may be smart enough to understand statistics, but, I find, he is not smart enough for me to get annoyed by anything he says.
    , @Doorway
    They may or may not be able to insulate themselves from white Hispanics, but they aren't interacting so much with that tiny fraction of impoverished criminal white white people, who isolate themselves from blacks as much as they can in their own trailer park communities, or the other side of the train tracks. Even they know blacks are bad news.
    , @anon

    too sincere to ignore them
     
    Including all the casualties from hispanic vs black gangbangers as being killed by white is a blatant lie.

    But he does have a point.
     
    He has absolutely no point; it is a blatant lie.
  25. Overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014. For understandable reasons, murders get the most attention, but they accounted for only 1.2 percent of all violent crime in 2014.

    Personally, I’d rather be robbed or assaulted many times than murdered even once.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Death or Ooga Booga. http://www.ebaumsworld.com/jokes/read/260614/
  26. @Ezra
    I do feel sorry for Noah Smith: smart enough to understand the statistics; too sincere to ignore them; too weak to come to terms with them.

    But he does have a point. Whites try to insulate themselves from the worst blacks and often succeed, but whites are too numerous and blacks too poor for blacks to insulate themselves from the worst whites*. In fact, many whites are able to insulate themselves from the worst whites and forget they exist. But they do.

    *Obviously, in this statistic, "whites" includes Hispanics, but there are some pretty terrible white white people too.

    He may be smart enough to understand statistics, but, I find, he is not smart enough for me to get annoyed by anything he says.

  27. @Harold

    Overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014. For understandable reasons, murders get the most attention, but they accounted for only 1.2 percent of all violent crime in 2014.

     

    Personally, I’d rather be robbed or assaulted many times than murdered even once.
    • Agree: Harold
  28. A 10% increase in murder in exchange for a lot less police stopping and frisking could very well be worthwhile. The number I want to see is the number of people murdered by someone they do not know and have no acquaintance with.

    • Replies: @Forbes
    I doubt the murder victims would agree with you. If only we could ask them...
  29. @Charles Tunata

    Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years...“Without this technology, we estimate there would be no less than 50 000 and as many as 115000 homicides annually instead of an actual 15 000 to 20000,” they say in a report of the study in the journal Homicide Studies
     
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124155/

    “…but for medical developments over the past 40 years…”

    Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is alive thanks to George W. Bush. She survived a bullet through the brain because the surgeon on duty had just returned from a tour in Afghanistan, were he had specialized in traumatic head injuries.

    Sorry, not W but Osama; Mrs. Giffords is alive today thanks to Mr. bin Laden.

  30. I wonder how the supportive the NYT would be if their “logic” were applied to some of their pet tearjerkers?

    -There may have been an increase in slavery around 1500-1800, but if we look at slavery across the previous 2000 years…..

  31. @Ezra
    I do feel sorry for Noah Smith: smart enough to understand the statistics; too sincere to ignore them; too weak to come to terms with them.

    But he does have a point. Whites try to insulate themselves from the worst blacks and often succeed, but whites are too numerous and blacks too poor for blacks to insulate themselves from the worst whites*. In fact, many whites are able to insulate themselves from the worst whites and forget they exist. But they do.

    *Obviously, in this statistic, "whites" includes Hispanics, but there are some pretty terrible white white people too.

    They may or may not be able to insulate themselves from white Hispanics, but they aren’t interacting so much with that tiny fraction of impoverished criminal white white people, who isolate themselves from blacks as much as they can in their own trailer park communities, or the other side of the train tracks. Even they know blacks are bad news.

  32. @Dave Pinsen
    Noah Smith says blacks are at high risk of being killed by whites:

    https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/670340436368621568

    Some people twist facts and statistics around so much they come up with the opposite of reality. They know this, but report it anyway. Those people are known as liberal intellectuals. I tend to take anything they say with a huge grain of salt. That is, on the rare occasion that I bother any more with reading anything they put out. Apparently, increasingly larger percentages of the US are agreeing with me, since the audiences of NYT and news commentary shows on MSNBC, etc, have been consistently dropping year by year.

  33. What the NYT is doing here is as if George W. Bush had said, “Well, sure, a few thousand American soldiers have gotten killed since I started my war in Iraq, but if you compare that to the long term going back to say, December 7, 1941, the trend of Americans getting killed in combat is down. And that’s what really matters!”

    And don’t forget that the media loves Loves LOVES sensationalistic headlines, until they don’t. The media works against its own financial interests when The Agenda is going in the opposite direction, just like it did with Gibson’s Passion, as I just mentioned in another thread.

  34. I remain skeptical of the claim that modern medicine has reduced murder rates by making gunshot injuries more survivable. While in one sense that may be so, another factor pulling in the opposite direction is the increased deadliness of firearms. Yesterday’s six-shooter revolvers have largely given way to pistols holding two or even three times as many rounds. That in turn is likely to have resulted in a major increase in people shot multiple times, for whom even the best medical attention is usually futile. A secondary factor is increased use of hollowpoint ammunition, which js especially deadly.

    Peter

  35. @eah
    Obama and BLM have killed

    Obama is a jerk and #BlackLivesMatter is bullshit. Police chiefs around the country ought to remind their charges daily to do their jobs, despite what may be at the moment somewhat more difficult circumstances.

    But it's also "disgusting" in another way that you seek to blame Obama/BLM for the fact ghetto Blacks are killing each other. If you believe that, why not start one of those online White House petitions to condemn or seek charges against them for opening their mouths?

    Probably 90+% of the people who comment here are at least middle class white males -- that certainly describes me. Go read about the Indianapolis home invasion murder of Amanda Blackburn -- those are the kinds of Blacks who are killing each other. And I'm supposed to be concerned about that? I'm supposed to see that as a problem? And look for someone to blame? It's all a lot of intellectual posing by poseurs.

    I’m supposed to see that as a problem?

    Managing the underclass is one duty of our political leaders today, like it or not. If Obama can’t get this right, what can he get right?

  36. The NY Times knows what’s important: Getting Woodrow Wilson out of Princeton!
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/opinion/the-case-against-woodrow-wilson-at-princeton.html?_r=0

    The NY Times knows what’s not important: 11 to 16 percent more murders!

    This is an obvious Sailerian point, but in a weird way the NY Times editorial endorsing that Princeton should bury Woodrow Wilson explained what was so obvious about the video of President Eisgruber and the kids in his office: the strange inversion of power. It was clear in that clip that Eisgruber had no power and the girl yelling about how walking past a building named after Woodrow Wilson constituted genocide had all the power. You might think on first blush that this was just some strange mesmerism, some trick of who can talk louder, but the much more sensible explanation is that Eisgruber’s world is dominated by the NY Times editorial page and people who think like the NY Times editorial page, the MacArthur grant committees and National Book Award committees and so forth. (There is also the question of how much the average important donor has shifted to reflect Today’s Priorities- no longer are schools courting that average millionaire who just wants his two field hockey-playing daughters to be given an extra look in admissions season; now they’re courting megagazillionaires who have been to Davos and know the score. )

    This may also explain some of the anti-majoritarianism implicit in the NY Times editorial. The University had given the kids what they want, they were launching some official process of investigating whether to change the name and soliciting broader input, yadda yadda yadda. But that kind of dialogue is not what the arc of Justice bends towards- the NY Times editorial page already knows that it bends towards the Black Justice League!

  37. Interesting disparity between the CDC homicide death statistics and the FBI statistics. Here is 2013 for a comparison:

    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf

    Homocides: Whites: 7523 Blacks: 8059
    Pg 32 “Assault Homicide” (death by)

    https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls#disablemobile

    Homicides: White: 3005 Black: 2491

    Why the huge disparity???

    Anyhow, crime is also down because the way in which crime is classified and reported. Urban police departments have large incentives to underreport crime. Many violent crimes are downgraded and with the decline in officer numbers there are a good deal of crimes that are never reported. This is becoming a huge deal in Chicago especially with the new Compustat methodology. There was a Chicago Magazine two part series about this a year back or so.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/

    • Replies: @Stan D Mute

    Why the huge disparity???

     

    The FBI table has a footnote stating that it omits homicides where no known identity of the offender exists.
    , @george
    Why the huge disparity???

    CDC might not collect data from all states. They seem to want a sample data set that allows comparisons between causes, totals are not their objective.

    http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nvdrs/

    "Violence Surveillance Data from 32 States"
  38. “Race & crime”: A black American is about 2.7x as likely to be murdered by a white American than the reverse, NOT counting police killings.

    Assuming that number is accurate, it would be very telling, if America was 50% black and 50% white, but it’s not. It’s 12% black, and 60% to 70% white (depending on whether leftists pretend to consider Arabs and other nonwhites to be white). So there are roughly 5 times as many whites as blacks, yet the number that should be 5, is actually 2.7. Meaning, whites are roughly twice as likely to be murdered by blacks as they should be, if the races were equally disposed to murder. And this is after whites have gone to often extraordinary (and very, very racist) lengths to avoid living near blacks, which seriously limits blacks’ opportunities to murder them.

    All of this is why Smith frames it as “blacks are x as likely to be murdered by,” instead of “blacks are x as likely to murder”; that makes it easier to obscure the fact that blacks are much, much more murderous than whites are. It’s an instance of relying on the audience’s ignorance to “make” an “argument.” I.e., “damned lies and statistics,” something lefties are always squealing about, unless it’s one of their own doing it as usual, in which case they have nothing to say.

  39. A long time hobby horse of the New York Times is: “Since crime is down, there is no need to keep violent criminals in prison.”

  40. @eah
    Obama and BLM have killed

    Obama is a jerk and #BlackLivesMatter is bullshit. Police chiefs around the country ought to remind their charges daily to do their jobs, despite what may be at the moment somewhat more difficult circumstances.

    But it's also "disgusting" in another way that you seek to blame Obama/BLM for the fact ghetto Blacks are killing each other. If you believe that, why not start one of those online White House petitions to condemn or seek charges against them for opening their mouths?

    Probably 90+% of the people who comment here are at least middle class white males -- that certainly describes me. Go read about the Indianapolis home invasion murder of Amanda Blackburn -- those are the kinds of Blacks who are killing each other. And I'm supposed to be concerned about that? I'm supposed to see that as a problem? And look for someone to blame? It's all a lot of intellectual posing by poseurs.

    Amanda Blackburn was killed by overspill from the hyper violent black gang culture which the media – especially the NYT – have been covering up for 50 years.

    Anything that forces the truth about the black gang culture out into the open helps future Amanda Blackburns.

  41. @Ezra
    I do feel sorry for Noah Smith: smart enough to understand the statistics; too sincere to ignore them; too weak to come to terms with them.

    But he does have a point. Whites try to insulate themselves from the worst blacks and often succeed, but whites are too numerous and blacks too poor for blacks to insulate themselves from the worst whites*. In fact, many whites are able to insulate themselves from the worst whites and forget they exist. But they do.

    *Obviously, in this statistic, "whites" includes Hispanics, but there are some pretty terrible white white people too.

    too sincere to ignore them

    Including all the casualties from hispanic vs black gangbangers as being killed by white is a blatant lie.

    But he does have a point.

    He has absolutely no point; it is a blatant lie.

    • Agree: Stan D Mute
  42. The New York Times has a lot of nerve. It was the Times’ editorial board (which is slightly less black than the Ferguson police department was in August, 2014) that fanned the flames in Ferguson by citing Missouri Department of Motor Vehicle data to charge the local white power structure with dispensing justice unequally.

    Aside from the obvious problem with pointing to higher rates of traffic stops for blacks than whites compared to their percentage in the general population as evidence of white racism, the same data that shows blacks stopped at a disproportionately higher rate than whites, shows whites stopped at a disproportionately higher rate than Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, and Others. So, if disproportionate traffic stops are evidence of racism, then the racist white cops in Ferguson were racist against their own race in four out of five non-white racial categories.

    The data were in the very same chart the Times’ editorial board cited to prove their case against local whites in Ferguson. They simply discarded the data that destroyed their case. In other words, the editorial board violated basic journalistic ethical standards to whip up racial hatred against whites. And now, they seek to deny the very result for which they bear a great deal of responsibility. I hope, someday, they are held accountable.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Craig Nelson, I have posted this before, but I think it is pertinent. Margaret Sullivan, is the former editor of the Buffalo News and current Public Editor of the NYT. There was, just a few years ago, a mass shooting in Buffalo at the City Grill, a downtown bar. Eight blacks were shot and four died. The shooter Ricardo McCrea, was arrested and convicted of this crime. However, Ms. Sullivan had the temerity to point out that seven of the victims had prior arrests or pending warrants, most for felonies. The local black community jumped on her with both feet. However, she did not apologize, but stated that the timing of the story might be insensitive....but true. Of course, the Buffalo News, a Warren Buffet property, doesn't have the gravitas of the NYT.
  43. My favorite explanation for the rise in killings is the flood of K2/”Spice” that is supposedly flooding certain areas.

    K2/”Spice” which could be bought perfectly legally at seedy convenience stores in most of the country as little as five years ago, is just now becoming a problem, apparently.

  44. Find me a stockbroker or salesman who thinks an 11% increase is insignificant.

  45. @Craig Nelsen
    The New York Times has a lot of nerve. It was the Times' editorial board (which is slightly less black than the Ferguson police department was in August, 2014) that fanned the flames in Ferguson by citing Missouri Department of Motor Vehicle data to charge the local white power structure with dispensing justice unequally.

    Aside from the obvious problem with pointing to higher rates of traffic stops for blacks than whites compared to their percentage in the general population as evidence of white racism, the same data that shows blacks stopped at a disproportionately higher rate than whites, shows whites stopped at a disproportionately higher rate than Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, and Others. So, if disproportionate traffic stops are evidence of racism, then the racist white cops in Ferguson were racist against their own race in four out of five non-white racial categories.

    The data were in the very same chart the Times' editorial board cited to prove their case against local whites in Ferguson. They simply discarded the data that destroyed their case. In other words, the editorial board violated basic journalistic ethical standards to whip up racial hatred against whites. And now, they seek to deny the very result for which they bear a great deal of responsibility. I hope, someday, they are held accountable.

    Craig Nelson, I have posted this before, but I think it is pertinent. Margaret Sullivan, is the former editor of the Buffalo News and current Public Editor of the NYT. There was, just a few years ago, a mass shooting in Buffalo at the City Grill, a downtown bar. Eight blacks were shot and four died. The shooter Ricardo McCrea, was arrested and convicted of this crime. However, Ms. Sullivan had the temerity to point out that seven of the victims had prior arrests or pending warrants, most for felonies. The local black community jumped on her with both feet. However, she did not apologize, but stated that the timing of the story might be insensitive….but true. Of course, the Buffalo News, a Warren Buffet property, doesn’t have the gravitas of the NYT.

  46. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Before I even knew who Noah Smith was, I stumbled onto an entry on his blog where he was talking about what a decrepit wasteland “flyover country” is, and how the people there should all vote Democratic. All of the observations he mentioned came from a friend of his who drove through the midwest.

    It became clear pretty quickly that this friend drove through during the winter, and it was obvious that Noah Smith had never considered the fact that, if his friend had driven through while there were crops in the miles and miles and miles of farmland, it would hardly have seemed like a “wasteland”.

    He also quoted a Facebook comment from a different friend who described the people he saw in flyover country as “shuffling sacks of humanity”. I asked him if he would be OK with someone calling poor black people “shuffling sacks of humanity”, and if not, why he was OK with calling poor white people that.

    The whole comment thread then vanished, to be replaced by more innocuous comments from others.

    I guess the moral of the story is that Noah Smith doesn’t seem to be very smart, or if he his, it’s the kind of intelligence that can’t even foresee the most basic objections to his theories.

  47. @FactsAreImportant
    Disgusting NYT analysis, pretending that the long-term downward trend somehow absolves Obama of the blood on his hands. It is exactly the opposite.

    the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. ...

    A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: the rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter century, and is at its lowest in decades.
     
    If you want to know how many people Obama and BLM have killed, you should look at the deviation from the long-term trend. Because the long-term trend is down, the 11 percent increase UNDERSTATES the carnage. The body count attributable to BLM/Obama is even larger than the raw 11 percent increase. 11 percent of 14,000 murders per year means BLM/Obama have killed AT LEAST 1,500 Americans, mostly black.

    Disgusting.

    BLM/Obama have killed AT LEAST 1,500 Americans, mostly black.

    What’s really perverse is that a horrible terrible evil racist like me is far more broken up about those 1500 additional African deaths than the Race-Baiter in Chief. Admittedly, I’d be more broken up if those were 1500 whites murdered by Africans than the current African:African situation, but just as leftists cannot comprehend statistics and probabilities, they cannot understand hierarchies of attachment, only those of status. I’d rather see a pile of 1500 dead cats than 1500 dead dogs, but above all I’d rather not see any dead dogs or cats. For the leftist all that matters is status, such that African lives matter only if they’re taken by white heterosexual males who aren’t copulating with or eagerly cuckolded by Africans. Even then, it’s not the African’s life that matters, but the leftists’ opportunity to claim and gloat over their imagined social status supremacy. How many leftists do we observe spending all their time in the ghetto forming human protective shields around the innocent vulnerable black bodies of the Africans being wantonly and egregiously gunned down by racist cops?

  48. @Anon7
    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is "gunfire erupted". I think it comes out of the ground... As opposed to "someone deliberately fired a gun to kill or injure", which you will never read.

    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is “gunfire erupted”. I think it comes out of the ground

    Or “a fight broke out” describing an assault, “a robbery that went wrong” describing a rape/murder, or “in the wrong place at the wrong time” to describe an African murdering a white in racist rage.

    • Replies: @CJ
    You could add "a scuffle" when a non-black is assaulted by a group of blacks.
  49. @Anonymous
    He's just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by "the reverse"), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn't even seem to realize he needs this number though.

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn't mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn’t mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.

    You did the math to confirm that’s how he arrived at his nonsense number? I assumed he had found a self-defense statistic showing whites much more likely to kill an African in self-defense than the reverse. In either case, this (charitably) reinforces my belief that leftists are innumerate. One less inclined to give leftists any benefit of doubt might say it proves leftists are antithetical to Truth.

  50. white criminals

  51. OT:

    Black guy robs white college student, drives her to MLK Jr. Blvd, rapes her on Black Friday.

    “Tuscaloosa police looking for a teen accused of kidnapping a girl from a mall on Black Friday and raping her. At approximately 07:30 am this morning Tuscaloosa Police Dept. officers responded to University Mall (170 McFarland Blvd.) on a robbery and sexual assault. The victim, a 19 year old white female, stated she was sitting in the parking lot of the mall when the suspect, a 17 year old black male, walked up to her car and asked to use her cell phone. She agreed and the male got into her car. The suspect told the victim that he had a gun and forced her to drive to an ATM machine and withdraw money. He then forced her to drive to an abandoned property off Martin Luther King Jr Blvd where he sexually assualted her. The suspect then fled the area. The victim then made contacted the police and she was taken to DCH ER for treatment of injuries. Over the past several hours, investigators have developed Cedrick Lamar Collins as a suspect and developed probable cause to obtain a Kidnapping I, Rape I, and Robbery I warrants on him. Collins is described as a black male, 6’00”, 160 lbs, brown eyes, black hair, and medium complexion. See the attached Wanted Poster. Any information on Collins’ location please contact Tuscaloosa Police Dept. or you local law enforcement. Collins should be considered armed and dangerous.”

    http://www.wsfa.com/story/30618706/tuscaloosa-pd-woman-raped-robbed-after-being-kidnapped-from-mall-parking-lot

  52. @Steve Richter
    A 10% increase in murder in exchange for a lot less police stopping and frisking could very well be worthwhile. The number I want to see is the number of people murdered by someone they do not know and have no acquaintance with.

    I doubt the murder victims would agree with you. If only we could ask them…

    • Replies: @Steve Richter
    using that line of argument you easily get to strict gun control. Or people only travelling on buses and bicycles. No contact sports. A positive effect of fewer stop and frisks is people do not harbor grudges as much. Are not as alienated from civil society. Maybe the number of knock out game attacks is lower than it would be otherwise.
  53. @Yak-15
    Interesting disparity between the CDC homicide death statistics and the FBI statistics. Here is 2013 for a comparison:

    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf

    Homocides: Whites: 7523 Blacks: 8059
    Pg 32 "Assault Homicide" (death by)

    https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls#disablemobile

    Homicides: White: 3005 Black: 2491

    Why the huge disparity???

    Anyhow, crime is also down because the way in which crime is classified and reported. Urban police departments have large incentives to underreport crime. Many violent crimes are downgraded and with the decline in officer numbers there are a good deal of crimes that are never reported. This is becoming a huge deal in Chicago especially with the new Compustat methodology. There was a Chicago Magazine two part series about this a year back or so.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/

    Why the huge disparity???

    The FBI table has a footnote stating that it omits homicides where no known identity of the offender exists.

    • Replies: @Yak-15
    I read that but that implies that half of all homicides are unsolved. Is that a fact?
  54. On closer analysis of Noah’s numbers, it is clear that he has made a basic math mistake. He has compared the number of murders of blacks by (whites+Hiispanics) relative to the number of blacks with the number of murders of (whites+Hispanics) by blacks relative to non-Hispanic whites.

    Its not clear whether he is trying to score points by coming up with a new way to create confusion or he is just an idiot who is making a basic math mistake. I will give him the credit of the latter.

    Poor Noah, he doesnt undertand that the game is to ignore black crime. There is no way that black crime stands up to any scrutiny AT ALL.

  55. A an article published in 2014 about violence in Chicago referred to a total cost to Chicago of $2.5 Billion to treat gunshot victims. In 2014 there were 2500 Chicago gunshot victims, many of whom are left with lifetime disabilities. One victim, who was left paralyzed was uninsured and ran up a bill totaling $10 million. Of course actual numbers for a specific city can be staggering, for example, July Fourth weekend, 2014, in Chicago, saw 80 shot with 14 fatalities. Those are Battle of the Bulge type numbers. So any reduction would be a blessing. And one more thing, violent crime may be down because people are consciously avoiding certain areas of dangerous cities.

  56. @Yak-15
    Interesting disparity between the CDC homicide death statistics and the FBI statistics. Here is 2013 for a comparison:

    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf

    Homocides: Whites: 7523 Blacks: 8059
    Pg 32 "Assault Homicide" (death by)

    https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls#disablemobile

    Homicides: White: 3005 Black: 2491

    Why the huge disparity???

    Anyhow, crime is also down because the way in which crime is classified and reported. Urban police departments have large incentives to underreport crime. Many violent crimes are downgraded and with the decline in officer numbers there are a good deal of crimes that are never reported. This is becoming a huge deal in Chicago especially with the new Compustat methodology. There was a Chicago Magazine two part series about this a year back or so.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/

    Why the huge disparity???

    CDC might not collect data from all states. They seem to want a sample data set that allows comparisons between causes, totals are not their objective.

    http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nvdrs/

    “Violence Surveillance Data from 32 States”

  57. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Again, this is all a black thing isn’t it? Without them this would just be just a dry discussion. Are blacks killed by cops also counted as homicide victims? So far this year in Chicago 2728 have been shot with 405 of them being fatal so the emergency rooms are doing a good job these days (457 total homicides). What percent go on disability as a result is a good question. You know who picks up the tab for all these shenanigans.

  58. @International Jew
    From now on, every paper and magazine will call the Fergusson Effect "debunked".

    From now on, every paper and magazine will call the Fergusson Effect “debunked”.

    “Forget it, International Jew, it’s Social Justice-tistics”

    Or how about,

    “Another SJW-edi mind trick- this is not the gun violence you are looking for.”

    Seriously, homicides in St. Louis and Baltimore are going to be up almost 100% this year (both ground zero for BLM agitation) and the Ferguson police department was decapitated (wasn’t the city manager/mayor also forced to resign?) out of spite by the Holder Justice Dept. when it couldn’t indict any white cop over Michael Brown. Yet it’s all statistical noise to the NYT, and will require decades of meta-studies to sort out some day so let’s all be responsible and not say another thing until then.

    Instead, let’s talk about how no refugee has ever committed an act of terrorism against the US, and even if one did, how can you punish an entire group for the actions of a lone individual, and if it’s 1000’s, well the majority is still peaceful, and if a majority, as long as there is a single….

  59. The victim, a 19 year old white female, stated she was sitting in the parking lot of the mall when the suspect, a 17 year old black male, walked up to her car and asked to use her cell phone.

    Parents like hers are AWOL. White parents make such an ostensible fuss over being overprotective, but they seem to prefer risking their kids’ lives to giving them Derb’s version of “the talk.” Who doesn’t know to say “no” to that? I suppose she knows better now. FFS even if you are stupid enough to let a young black male stranger use your phone, doesn’t mean you have to be stupid enough to leave your car doors unlocked while you do it.

    And on the other hand, why aren’t black mommas telling their aspiring rapper sons about GPS tracking?

  60. @TangoMan
    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    Here, two can play at that game. Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans, so see, there's not really a pitbull problem and you have nothing to fear when you walk up to pet a barking pitbull straining on his leash and looking as though he wants to attack you. Don't believe your lying eyes, believe counter-intuitive arguments.

    You can mash up all sorts of facts and figures and come up with nonsensical, counter-intuitive conclusion.

    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    The proper reply, to put things in perspective, is that “A black American is about 10x as likely to murder a white American [as] the reverse.”

    10x or whatever the number is.

  61. @Stan D Mute

    My new favorite, which someone here pointed out, is “gunfire erupted”. I think it comes out of the ground
     
    Or "a fight broke out" describing an assault, "a robbery that went wrong" describing a rape/murder, or "in the wrong place at the wrong time" to describe an African murdering a white in racist rage.

    You could add “a scuffle” when a non-black is assaulted by a group of blacks.

  62. @SPMoore8
    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year. Meanwhile, about 2,000 blacks are killed by other blacks, but who's counting. This is a pretty useless stat, unless we want to argue that #blacklivesonlymatterwhentheyarekilledbywhitesorpoliceofficers

    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year.

    No, it means that if Whites kill 50 Blacks and Blacks kill 90 Whites, the Black victims come from a smaller population, and thus per capita victimization is higher (2.7 times as high in this example). Of course, the fact that the small number of Blacks kills so many Whites means that the per capita victimizing rate is more like 8x the White victimizing rate under this example.

    • Agree: SPMoore8
    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    You are correct, I was simply thinking in terms of putting the 2.77 ratio in concrete terms.

    However, once you start factoring in proportions, the numbers disappear, as several other posts in this thread have demonstrated.
  63. Regarding crime stats and murder rates, they are often gamed by the authorities. TL;DR version: Chicago cops can find the dead body of a naked woman who had been bound and gagged, and count it as a noncriminal death investigation. Voila! One less homicide for the the statistics.

  64. @Anonymous
    He's just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by "the reverse"), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn't even seem to realize he needs this number though.

    He then multiplies this by the hispanic+non-hispanic white population (77.1%) and divides by the black population (13.2%) to come up with his 2.7x figure, but this doesn't mean anything, it just inflates the ratio.

    He’s just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by “the reverse”), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn’t even seem to realize he needs this number though.

    I don’t know — Noah Smith is stupid and mendacious, and either could be the reason for this omission. However, I like your response better than mine, as it wraps the two numbers into one for each race.

    Good job, except that it’s 2.2 times as likely, not 2.2 times more likely.

    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    Focus on victim statistics when the ratio is favorable; e.g. low white expectation of murder, high arrest rates for blacks. Always be closing.
  65. As the Brennan Center analysis shows, overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014.

    Wow – this is amazingly dishonest. Larceny is never a violent crime, by definition. Burglary is also, arguably, never a violent crime, at least at common law, and, even if you want to count what happens after the unlawful entry, burglary is still seldom part of a violent criminal episode.

    To be clear, it is the NYT that is lying or outrageously (and implausibly) mistaken, not the Brennan people who did the report. The Brennan authors diid not say larceny or burglary was a violent crime.

  66. @Stan D Mute

    Why the huge disparity???

     

    The FBI table has a footnote stating that it omits homicides where no known identity of the offender exists.

    I read that but that implies that half of all homicides are unsolved. Is that a fact?

    • Replies: @anonymous

    I read that but that implies that half of all homicides are unsolved. Is that a fact?

     

    Half? In Chicago it's about 75%. It's all a black thing in their neighborhoods.
  67. @SPMoore8
    According to the link below, it was taken October 23 outside the "Caspersen Student Center", which apparently at Harvard Law School, according to a quick Google peek.

    I'm glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

    I’m glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/

    It’s silly for another reason. Look at the body language of the audience, whom I presume to be the “protesters”. They seem to have no interest in the “protest”. They just look bored or like they want to be somewhere else.

    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    One of the reasons why the photo is funny is because the ten or so people who are present so easily fall into visual stereotypes, which reminds me of my old theory that there are only about 3 dozen different types of humans. I mean, just by looking at them these people look like protesters I knew in the '60's and '70's and '80's (not that I am particularly radical but I tend to be on friendly terms with outsiders; just my nature.)

    I can imagine that some of the attendees were there because they were active in other protest groups, e.g., LGBT, or AA, or feminist types. As such, attendance at this "rally" was probably a sort of solidarity obligation.
  68. @ben tillman

    What that tweet means is that, if whites kill 100 blacks in one year, then blacks will kill about 38 whites in the same year.
     
    No, it means that if Whites kill 50 Blacks and Blacks kill 90 Whites, the Black victims come from a smaller population, and thus per capita victimization is higher (2.7 times as high in this example). Of course, the fact that the small number of Blacks kills so many Whites means that the per capita victimizing rate is more like 8x the White victimizing rate under this example.

    You are correct, I was simply thinking in terms of putting the 2.77 ratio in concrete terms.

    However, once you start factoring in proportions, the numbers disappear, as several other posts in this thread have demonstrated.

  69. @ben tillman

    I’m glad you think the photo is as silly as I do. Actually, the first photo looks pretty generic, the crowd could be any size. The second photo is the one that deflates the first.

    https://royallasses.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/1-royall-asses/
     

    It's silly for another reason. Look at the body language of the audience, whom I presume to be the "protesters". They seem to have no interest in the "protest". They just look bored or like they want to be somewhere else.

    One of the reasons why the photo is funny is because the ten or so people who are present so easily fall into visual stereotypes, which reminds me of my old theory that there are only about 3 dozen different types of humans. I mean, just by looking at them these people look like protesters I knew in the ’60’s and ’70’s and ’80’s (not that I am particularly radical but I tend to be on friendly terms with outsiders; just my nature.)

    I can imagine that some of the attendees were there because they were active in other protest groups, e.g., LGBT, or AA, or feminist types. As such, attendance at this “rally” was probably a sort of solidarity obligation.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I can imagine that some of the attendees were there because they were active in other protest groups…
     
    Is it just me, or do others find "attendee" to sound like the person being attended to, like a passenger by the flight "attendant", or a BDSM client, or Bill with Monica?

    And don't even get me started with the "standee" line on the city bus…
  70. Does anyone have crime rates, or even absolute figures, for Congressional districts? I imagine that would be quite fun to look at.

    • Replies: @res
    Is there a reason you want by congressional districts rather than zip codes or counties?

    http://www.city-data.com/ has crime data at differing levels (state, county, block level) presented in choropleth maps.

    If you really want congressional districts, one approach would be to use a CD to ZCTA mapping from https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/cd_state.html
    Along with zip code crime data (however I'm only seeing county data at https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/NACJD/NIBRS/ )

    There are other mappings at https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/relationship.html
    Note that the in many cases counties/zip codes map into more than one congressional district.

    This looks like a good starting point for doing this type of work: http://opendata.stackexchange.com/questions/1737/list-of-data-sources-at-the-state-county-and-zip-zcta-level

    Sorry this is a bit of a jumble. Not enough time/motivation right now to turn into a coherent whole.
  71. @SPMoore8
    One of the reasons why the photo is funny is because the ten or so people who are present so easily fall into visual stereotypes, which reminds me of my old theory that there are only about 3 dozen different types of humans. I mean, just by looking at them these people look like protesters I knew in the '60's and '70's and '80's (not that I am particularly radical but I tend to be on friendly terms with outsiders; just my nature.)

    I can imagine that some of the attendees were there because they were active in other protest groups, e.g., LGBT, or AA, or feminist types. As such, attendance at this "rally" was probably a sort of solidarity obligation.

    I can imagine that some of the attendees were there because they were active in other protest groups…

    Is it just me, or do others find “attendee” to sound like the person being attended to, like a passenger by the flight “attendant”, or a BDSM client, or Bill with Monica?

    And don’t even get me started with the “standee” line on the city bus…

    • Agree: Spmoore8
  72. @TangoMan
    The point of his contrived statistic is to advance the white men are dangerous narrative. His point is contrived because it completely omits reference to the population ratio of the two groups.

    Here, two can play at that game. Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans, so see, there's not really a pitbull problem and you have nothing to fear when you walk up to pet a barking pitbull straining on his leash and looking as though he wants to attack you. Don't believe your lying eyes, believe counter-intuitive arguments.

    You can mash up all sorts of facts and figures and come up with nonsensical, counter-intuitive conclusion.

    Pitbulls are way, way more likely to be euthanized by humans than they are to kill or maim humans,

    #PitbullLivesMatter

  73. @Yak-15
    I read that but that implies that half of all homicides are unsolved. Is that a fact?

    I read that but that implies that half of all homicides are unsolved. Is that a fact?

    Half? In Chicago it’s about 75%. It’s all a black thing in their neighborhoods.

  74. @Reg Cæsar
    Does anyone have crime rates, or even absolute figures, for Congressional districts? I imagine that would be quite fun to look at.

    Is there a reason you want by congressional districts rather than zip codes or counties?

    http://www.city-data.com/ has crime data at differing levels (state, county, block level) presented in choropleth maps.

    If you really want congressional districts, one approach would be to use a CD to ZCTA mapping from https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/cd_state.html
    Along with zip code crime data (however I’m only seeing county data at https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/NACJD/NIBRS/ )

    There are other mappings at https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/relationship.html
    Note that the in many cases counties/zip codes map into more than one congressional district.

    This looks like a good starting point for doing this type of work: http://opendata.stackexchange.com/questions/1737/list-of-data-sources-at-the-state-county-and-zip-zcta-level

    Sorry this is a bit of a jumble. Not enough time/motivation right now to turn into a coherent whole.

  75. @Forbes
    I doubt the murder victims would agree with you. If only we could ask them...

    using that line of argument you easily get to strict gun control. Or people only travelling on buses and bicycles. No contact sports. A positive effect of fewer stop and frisks is people do not harbor grudges as much. Are not as alienated from civil society. Maybe the number of knock out game attacks is lower than it would be otherwise.

  76. @ben tillman

    He’s just doing the math wrong to come up with that. The numbers he links to say that 189 blacks were murdered by whites and 409 whites were murdered by blacks. The relevant comparison is simply these two numbers with no modification. If there is one murderer per murder, then if you are black you are ~2.2x more likely to kill a white person than be killed by one (which is what I think he means by “the reverse”), while a white person is 2.2x more likely to be murdered by a black person than to murder one, and it is easy to figure out what happens with more than one murder per murderer. He doesn’t even seem to realize he needs this number though.
     
    I don't know -- Noah Smith is stupid and mendacious, and either could be the reason for this omission. However, I like your response better than mine, as it wraps the two numbers into one for each race.

    Good job, except that it's 2.2 times as likely, not 2.2 times more likely.

    Focus on victim statistics when the ratio is favorable; e.g. low white expectation of murder, high arrest rates for blacks. Always be closing.

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