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Nicaragua's Sandinista Presidente Daniel Ortega Plays Orban Defending U.S. from Cuban Migrants
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Daniel Ortega sworn in, 1984

From DW:

MIGRATION

Tempers flare between Nicaragua, Costa Rica over US-bound Cuban asylum seekers

Nicaragua has sent thousands of Cubans back to Costa Rica after the US-bound migrants stormed the border, accusing San Jose of sparking a crisis. Cuban influx fueled by rumors US will reverse its liberal asylum policy.

Nicaragua closed its border with Costa Rica Sunday, blocking hundreds of Cubans headed for the United States and stoking diplomatic tensions over a growing wave of migrants trying to reach the US.

“The Costa Rican government, in a deliberate and irresponsible action, hurled and continues hurling thousands of Cuban citizens at Nicaragua’s southern border posts,” leftist President Daniel Ortega’s government said in a statement.

There has been a recent surge in Cubans seeking to reach the US since relations have begun to normalize between Washington and Havana. The warming of ties has raised sparked rumors that the US would likely end its liberal policy of granting residency to Cuban immigrants arriving overland.

Here is an opportunity for the Cuban Connection GOP presidential candidates — Rubio, Cruz, and Jeb — to show some genuine leadership and call for immediate abolition of Cubans’ dry foot – wet foot immigration privileges before the upcoming Cuban Camp of the Saints gets fully in gear.

In many ways, the scenes have parallels to Europe’s refugee crisis as refugees fleeing war, poverty and strife transit impoverished Balkan countries on their way to prosperous European countries like Germany and Sweden. …

The smuggling gang had arranged for Cubans to fly to Ecuador before working their way up through Colombia and Panama. Now many are stuck on the Costa Rica-Nicaragua frontier trapped amidst a diplomatic stalemate.

I’m not sure exactly what Ortega’s strategy is here. (Do the Castros want to keep Cubans bottled up, or are they planning Mariel II?). But Ortega’s an interesting man, a political survivor.

In recent years as president of Nicaragua, for example, he’s developed a fairly novel strategy of exciting nationalist passions over petty border squabbles with neighbors, taking the cases to an international court, and then punctiliously obeying the judgments. It’s kind of like as football is to war, which could be a good thing.

 
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  1. OT. I saw,a lot today relitigating our policy toward Jewish emigrants in 1939 and how abhorrent preferring Christians for admission would be, but nothing about the Jackson Vanik amendment.

  2. “The Costa Rican government, in a deliberate and irresponsible action, hurled and continues hurling thousands of Cuban citizens at Nicaragua’s southern border posts,” leftist President Daniel Ortega’s government said in a statement.

    The open border crowd tells us how immigrants are a double plus good that will grow the economy. Why is Ortega not thrilled to death that Costa Rica is missing out on this opportunity? Surely Nicaragua will rocket to the top with this infusion of talent. Plus being that Cubans already speak Spanish, assimilation will be forthwith.

    • Replies: @bomag
    Yeah, I always wonder this myself.

    Maybe our libertarian "friends" could set up a marketplace for immigrants, with principals bidding for the the services of these fine people. Then we would have a mechanism for measuring all this awesome value, and rub it in the faces of the recalcitrant.

    Of course, I would want a mechanism where we could pay to have them stay home...
  3. Hmmmm. It wouldn’t actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.

    Again, the practical benefit to the U.S. would be nonexistent, but if done right, it might help pull the wool over the eyes of enough low-information voters to defuse the likes of Donald Trump. The slogans write themselves: “America, you don’t need a wall — Mexico IS North America’s mighty wall!”

    • Replies: @iSteveFan

    Hmmmm. It wouldn’t actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.
     
    I vaguely recall Helmut Kohl being interview by American TV in the early 90's and asked what he would do if he were the US president. He said he'd focus his foreign policy on helping to make Argentina, Brazil and Mexico into economic powers so that they would sop up all the people wanting to leave Latin America for the greener pastures of the US/Canada.

    After all the money we wasted in Afghanistan, Iraq and countless other places, I wish our leaders might have tried to follow his advice. It seems like it would have been money better spent.
    , @Hunsdon
    "Mexico: The North American Libya!"
  4. he’s developed a fairly novel strategy of exciting nationalist passions over petty border squabbles with neighbors

    We have our own festering petty border squabble with Canada, over who gets to fish where on the Pacific. Or has that been settled?

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    We have our own festering petty border squabble with Canada, over who gets to fish where on the Pacific.
     
    Those querulous Canadians and their laughable A-B line. But we love 'em and should settle this amicably with an offer they couldn't refuse. They drop their ridiculous claim and agree to use standard international maritime border rules and in return we ship them 15 million vibrant Mexicans to "grow their economy". Win-win!
  5. @Mr. Blank
    Hmmmm. It wouldn't actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.

    Again, the practical benefit to the U.S. would be nonexistent, but if done right, it might help pull the wool over the eyes of enough low-information voters to defuse the likes of Donald Trump. The slogans write themselves: "America, you don't need a wall -- Mexico IS North America's mighty wall!"

    Hmmmm. It wouldn’t actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.

    I vaguely recall Helmut Kohl being interview by American TV in the early 90’s and asked what he would do if he were the US president. He said he’d focus his foreign policy on helping to make Argentina, Brazil and Mexico into economic powers so that they would sop up all the people wanting to leave Latin America for the greener pastures of the US/Canada.

    After all the money we wasted in Afghanistan, Iraq and countless other places, I wish our leaders might have tried to follow his advice. It seems like it would have been money better spent.

    • Replies: @snorlax
    Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be. Their populations simply have too low an average IQ to become first-world countries.
  6. @iSteveFan

    Hmmmm. It wouldn’t actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.
     
    I vaguely recall Helmut Kohl being interview by American TV in the early 90's and asked what he would do if he were the US president. He said he'd focus his foreign policy on helping to make Argentina, Brazil and Mexico into economic powers so that they would sop up all the people wanting to leave Latin America for the greener pastures of the US/Canada.

    After all the money we wasted in Afghanistan, Iraq and countless other places, I wish our leaders might have tried to follow his advice. It seems like it would have been money better spent.

    Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be. Their populations simply have too low an average IQ to become first-world countries.

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))

    "Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be."
     
    I don't know why Argentina is always so messed up. And I certainly don't understand what's going on with Brasil.

    But Mexico is already a first world country. That's why more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007. College and high school graduation rates are rising and wages are improving. Birth rates have fallen to replacement level. Mexico's life expectancy for nonsmokers is now longer than that of the USA.

    A middle class family can still afford a home in Mexico's major cities. In fact, efficient government means the cost of living has stayed low. The median young college grad in many Mexican cities has higher income in relation to cost of living than the median American grad.

    --

    It's all an amazing blessing to the USA. Americans could be in the position of Europe with an unassimilable hostile violent underclass that will breed in huge numbers and overwhelm their nations. Instead there are 40MM Mexicans who -- we now know -- can build at least a bottom rung first world nation of their own. All indications are that their average IQ will turn out to be 95 (in relation to an assumed US average of 100). That's about ten points better than what Europe is getting.

    We'll see in some of our lifetimes the end of Sweden, after millennia of cultural continuity. And possibly now we can see how Germany and France will end after thousands of generations.

    But America will survive. Assuming that mass transoceanic migration from Africa and the Middle East doesn't pick up, the worst is possibly over now. America will change but continue to be America, thanks to good luck in the choice of neighbors.

    , @wolfy
    Argentina also doesn't have high iq
  7. Both Castros brothers are over 85 now, so I don’t think they have any strategy left except dying in peace. If they have to let hundreds of thousands of Cubans emigrate in order to off steam goes off in society, they will do it. Their time will soon be up and Ortega realizes this too.

  8. The United States make Argentina, Brazil and Mexico into economic powers so that they would sop up all the people wanting to leave Latin America for the greener pastures of the US/Canada.

    The narcotics cartels dominate too much of Mexico. They would soak up (steal) all that foreign aid money so this progtam would fail in Mexico.

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))

    The narcotics cartels dominate too much of Mexico. They would soak up (steal) all that foreign aid money so this progtam would fail in Mexico.
     
    The narcotic cartels in Mexico depend entirely on American foreign aid. End it -- especially DEA cooperative paramilitary operations that just end up funding cartels -- and Mexico will come to an accommodation again. The peaceful traffickers will cut a deal with the government as they always have and violent cartels will be squeezed out.

    The most violent cartel -- the Zetas -- were founded by American DEA and Army trained Mexican officers with DEA cooperative op equipment taken from joint armories. They continue to recruit from joint op forces.

    Foreign aid is always destructive, counterproductive, and harmful everywhere it is tried. Except Israel.

  9. @snorlax
    Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be. Their populations simply have too low an average IQ to become first-world countries.

    “Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be.”

    I don’t know why Argentina is always so messed up. And I certainly don’t understand what’s going on with Brasil.

    But Mexico is already a first world country. That’s why more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007. College and high school graduation rates are rising and wages are improving. Birth rates have fallen to replacement level. Mexico’s life expectancy for nonsmokers is now longer than that of the USA.

    A middle class family can still afford a home in Mexico’s major cities. In fact, efficient government means the cost of living has stayed low. The median young college grad in many Mexican cities has higher income in relation to cost of living than the median American grad.

    It’s all an amazing blessing to the USA. Americans could be in the position of Europe with an unassimilable hostile violent underclass that will breed in huge numbers and overwhelm their nations. Instead there are 40MM Mexicans who — we now know — can build at least a bottom rung first world nation of their own. All indications are that their average IQ will turn out to be 95 (in relation to an assumed US average of 100). That’s about ten points better than what Europe is getting.

    We’ll see in some of our lifetimes the end of Sweden, after millennia of cultural continuity. And possibly now we can see how Germany and France will end after thousands of generations.

    But America will survive. Assuming that mass transoceanic migration from Africa and the Middle East doesn’t pick up, the worst is possibly over now. America will change but continue to be America, thanks to good luck in the choice of neighbors.

    • Replies: @Pepe
    I don't think too many people would call a country First World with 50% of the population living in poverty. The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising, with two million families falling from "middle class" into poverty between 2012 and 2014.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc. Hell, Mexico, sharing a 2,000 mile border with the US, falls below Ecuador and Ukraine in English proficiency!

    The most wanted criminal in the World, "El Chapo" Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico's most secure "supermax" prison before .... ahem .... tunneling out. In the newly released audio for the video in his cell at the time of the escape, you can hear loud drilling sounds in the minutes before he flees!

    Finally, I have my doubts about the whole "net zero Mexican migration" meme that's been talked about lately. If it is true, I'd say those returning are more likely deportees caught engaging in criminal acts in the US, rather than illegals returning to Mexico looking for more opportunities.

    And if there are fewer making the trek north to the US, I'd say the much publicized violence now commonly found along the migration routes is probably the cause. Heading north has gotten much more dangerous, with some of the more violent cartels now involved in kidnapping, extorting and killing migrants in Mexico.

    , @5371
    [more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007]

    Nobody keeps accurate count of these movements, so there is no basis for this claim.

    [Birth rates have fallen to replacement level.]

    Oh really? (I assume you meant to write "fertility rates".) Then how did Mexico's population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?
  10. @Clyde

    The United States make Argentina, Brazil and Mexico into economic powers so that they would sop up all the people wanting to leave Latin America for the greener pastures of the US/Canada.
     
    The narcotics cartels dominate too much of Mexico. They would soak up (steal) all that foreign aid money so this progtam would fail in Mexico.

    The narcotics cartels dominate too much of Mexico. They would soak up (steal) all that foreign aid money so this progtam would fail in Mexico.

    The narcotic cartels in Mexico depend entirely on American foreign aid. End it — especially DEA cooperative paramilitary operations that just end up funding cartels — and Mexico will come to an accommodation again. The peaceful traffickers will cut a deal with the government as they always have and violent cartels will be squeezed out.

    The most violent cartel — the Zetas — were founded by American DEA and Army trained Mexican officers with DEA cooperative op equipment taken from joint armories. They continue to recruit from joint op forces.

    Foreign aid is always destructive, counterproductive, and harmful everywhere it is tried. Except Israel.

  11. If relations normalize between the U.S. and Cuba, 10 million Americans should converge on Cuba with plans of becoming residents. These Americans are weather deprived and came to Cuba to seek a better life! If the Cubans or anyone else complains, then they are racist!

  12. @snorlax
    Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be. Their populations simply have too low an average IQ to become first-world countries.

    Argentina also doesn’t have high iq

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Argentina is pretty white. I didn't see any obviously Amerinidan people there. I am sure there are some in the north with the border between Bolivia it wasn't noticeable.
  13. Daniel Ortega???

    I like to think I’m fairly knowledgeable about worldwide current events. However, I would have bet every penny of my less-than-meager 401k that this guy died at least 15 years ago. Bringing up his name is the equivalent of someone extolling the virtues of Beta-max.

    Wow, those Central Americans are really old school…

    • Replies: @CJ
    I find it amazing too. This guy was mocked by Reagan as "the little dictator in designer glasses." That's a long long time ago.
  14. @Mr. Blank
    Hmmmm. It wouldn't actually do the U.S. any good, but it occurs to me that Mexico could win a lot of goodwill in the U.S. if it tried hard to portray itself as a great bulwark protecting its fellow North American Great Powers, the U.S. and Canada, from a massive tide of immigration from South and Central America.

    Again, the practical benefit to the U.S. would be nonexistent, but if done right, it might help pull the wool over the eyes of enough low-information voters to defuse the likes of Donald Trump. The slogans write themselves: "America, you don't need a wall -- Mexico IS North America's mighty wall!"

    “Mexico: The North American Libya!”

  15. @iSteveFan

    “The Costa Rican government, in a deliberate and irresponsible action, hurled and continues hurling thousands of Cuban citizens at Nicaragua’s southern border posts,” leftist President Daniel Ortega’s government said in a statement.
     
    The open border crowd tells us how immigrants are a double plus good that will grow the economy. Why is Ortega not thrilled to death that Costa Rica is missing out on this opportunity? Surely Nicaragua will rocket to the top with this infusion of talent. Plus being that Cubans already speak Spanish, assimilation will be forthwith.

    Yeah, I always wonder this myself.

    Maybe our libertarian “friends” could set up a marketplace for immigrants, with principals bidding for the the services of these fine people. Then we would have a mechanism for measuring all this awesome value, and rub it in the faces of the recalcitrant.

    Of course, I would want a mechanism where we could pay to have them stay home…

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Maybe our libertarian “friends” could set up a marketplace for immigrants, with principals bidding for the the services of these fine people. Then we would have a mechanism for measuring all this awesome value, and rub it in the faces of the recalcitrant.
     
    Terrific idea, since these "libertarians" claim to believe in markets. A little unmasking.

    Your proposal points out a constant on the left--even with leftists masquerading as "libertarian"--none of their brilliant ideas may ever be subjected to the market, to public or private choice.

    Parents can't choose their schools and select if they want the latest from "progressive" educators. Banks can't choose to lend to whom they want. Voters in states can't choose if they want gay marriage. Bakers don't get to choose who to bake wedding cakes for. Communities don't get to choose not to be "enriched" by Somali or Hmong refugees. States don't get decide not to take Syrian refugees\terrorists. School districts don't get to choose what their discipline policies are. And, the biggie: people in nations--at least white nations--don't get to chose who they must let in to share their nation with.

    *They* know better. They are leading us to their bright glorious progressive future. People *choosing* would just get in the way. Our job is to follow orders--or else.
  16. Steve, I think Nicaragua has enough syllables as it is.

  17. @(((Owen)))

    "Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be."
     
    I don't know why Argentina is always so messed up. And I certainly don't understand what's going on with Brasil.

    But Mexico is already a first world country. That's why more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007. College and high school graduation rates are rising and wages are improving. Birth rates have fallen to replacement level. Mexico's life expectancy for nonsmokers is now longer than that of the USA.

    A middle class family can still afford a home in Mexico's major cities. In fact, efficient government means the cost of living has stayed low. The median young college grad in many Mexican cities has higher income in relation to cost of living than the median American grad.

    --

    It's all an amazing blessing to the USA. Americans could be in the position of Europe with an unassimilable hostile violent underclass that will breed in huge numbers and overwhelm their nations. Instead there are 40MM Mexicans who -- we now know -- can build at least a bottom rung first world nation of their own. All indications are that their average IQ will turn out to be 95 (in relation to an assumed US average of 100). That's about ten points better than what Europe is getting.

    We'll see in some of our lifetimes the end of Sweden, after millennia of cultural continuity. And possibly now we can see how Germany and France will end after thousands of generations.

    But America will survive. Assuming that mass transoceanic migration from Africa and the Middle East doesn't pick up, the worst is possibly over now. America will change but continue to be America, thanks to good luck in the choice of neighbors.

    I don’t think too many people would call a country First World with 50% of the population living in poverty. The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising, with two million families falling from “middle class” into poverty between 2012 and 2014.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc. Hell, Mexico, sharing a 2,000 mile border with the US, falls below Ecuador and Ukraine in English proficiency!

    The most wanted criminal in the World, “El Chapo” Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico’s most secure “supermax” prison before …. ahem …. tunneling out. In the newly released audio for the video in his cell at the time of the escape, you can hear loud drilling sounds in the minutes before he flees!

    Finally, I have my doubts about the whole “net zero Mexican migration” meme that’s been talked about lately. If it is true, I’d say those returning are more likely deportees caught engaging in criminal acts in the US, rather than illegals returning to Mexico looking for more opportunities.

    And if there are fewer making the trek north to the US, I’d say the much publicized violence now commonly found along the migration routes is probably the cause. Heading north has gotten much more dangerous, with some of the more violent cartels now involved in kidnapping, extorting and killing migrants in Mexico.

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))

    The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising,
     
    An artifact of changes in oil prices and exchange rates that does not reflect economic conditions.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc.
     
    So much the worse for arbitrary indicators. Mexico is richer than the home countries of 5.5 of the 7 billion people on this planet.

    The most wanted criminal in the World, “El Chapo” Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico’s most secure “supermax”
     
    Guzmán isn't wanted. Mexican authorities had known where he was for decades and phoned him up in advance to tell him they were going to take him in. It was a show for the DEA to keep US foreign aid flowing.

    After he 'escaped' with help from the government, the Mexican Supreme Court heard his petition for immunity from extradition (in absentia, natch) and granted it.

    The Mexican government has depended on Guzmán's organization to calm the violence between cartels and does not want to lose his services. The DEA is extremely enthusiastic about 'catching' him so Mexico reluctantly pretends to care sometimes.

    Of course, all the drugs Guzmán traffics in have been legalized for personal use by the Mexican congress. Cooperation with the DEA is a show Mexico puts on, law enforcement theatre for the benefit of an oblivious northern neighbor.


    I have my doubts about
     
    Have all the doubts you like. Mexicans and Gringos both are migrating to Mexico for the better economic conditions and quality of life.
  18. The other reason they are being held up is because the Democrats don’t know yet if a Cuban, Cruz or Rubio, will be the nominee. If either is, then the invasion will be launched to harm their election prospects. I have been awaiting another Cuban boatlift before Obama leaves. The only good news in it, is it would increase America’s mean IQ as opposed to what we get from northern Mexico.

  19. @Reg Cæsar

    he’s developed a fairly novel strategy of exciting nationalist passions over petty border squabbles with neighbors
     
    We have our own festering petty border squabble with Canada, over who gets to fish where on the Pacific. Or has that been settled?

    We have our own festering petty border squabble with Canada, over who gets to fish where on the Pacific.

    Those querulous Canadians and their laughable A-B line. But we love ’em and should settle this amicably with an offer they couldn’t refuse. They drop their ridiculous claim and agree to use standard international maritime border rules and in return we ship them 15 million vibrant Mexicans to “grow their economy”. Win-win!

  20. @bomag
    Yeah, I always wonder this myself.

    Maybe our libertarian "friends" could set up a marketplace for immigrants, with principals bidding for the the services of these fine people. Then we would have a mechanism for measuring all this awesome value, and rub it in the faces of the recalcitrant.

    Of course, I would want a mechanism where we could pay to have them stay home...

    Maybe our libertarian “friends” could set up a marketplace for immigrants, with principals bidding for the the services of these fine people. Then we would have a mechanism for measuring all this awesome value, and rub it in the faces of the recalcitrant.

    Terrific idea, since these “libertarians” claim to believe in markets. A little unmasking.

    Your proposal points out a constant on the left–even with leftists masquerading as “libertarian”–none of their brilliant ideas may ever be subjected to the market, to public or private choice.

    Parents can’t choose their schools and select if they want the latest from “progressive” educators. Banks can’t choose to lend to whom they want. Voters in states can’t choose if they want gay marriage. Bakers don’t get to choose who to bake wedding cakes for. Communities don’t get to choose not to be “enriched” by Somali or Hmong refugees. States don’t get decide not to take Syrian refugees\terrorists. School districts don’t get to choose what their discipline policies are. And, the biggie: people in nations–at least white nations–don’t get to chose who they must let in to share their nation with.

    *They* know better. They are leading us to their bright glorious progressive future. People *choosing* would just get in the way. Our job is to follow orders–or else.

  21. @(((Owen)))

    "Argentina maybe, but Brazil and Mexico are the countries of the future and always will be."
     
    I don't know why Argentina is always so messed up. And I certainly don't understand what's going on with Brasil.

    But Mexico is already a first world country. That's why more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007. College and high school graduation rates are rising and wages are improving. Birth rates have fallen to replacement level. Mexico's life expectancy for nonsmokers is now longer than that of the USA.

    A middle class family can still afford a home in Mexico's major cities. In fact, efficient government means the cost of living has stayed low. The median young college grad in many Mexican cities has higher income in relation to cost of living than the median American grad.

    --

    It's all an amazing blessing to the USA. Americans could be in the position of Europe with an unassimilable hostile violent underclass that will breed in huge numbers and overwhelm their nations. Instead there are 40MM Mexicans who -- we now know -- can build at least a bottom rung first world nation of their own. All indications are that their average IQ will turn out to be 95 (in relation to an assumed US average of 100). That's about ten points better than what Europe is getting.

    We'll see in some of our lifetimes the end of Sweden, after millennia of cultural continuity. And possibly now we can see how Germany and France will end after thousands of generations.

    But America will survive. Assuming that mass transoceanic migration from Africa and the Middle East doesn't pick up, the worst is possibly over now. America will change but continue to be America, thanks to good luck in the choice of neighbors.

    [more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007]

    Nobody keeps accurate count of these movements, so there is no basis for this claim.

    [Birth rates have fallen to replacement level.]

    Oh really? (I assume you meant to write “fertility rates”.) Then how did Mexico’s population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))

    Then how did Mexico’s population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    Also there is net migration from the USA to Mexico for the better quality of life. Unfortunately, there is also net migration from Cuba, Argentina, the Caribbean, and Central America. Frankly, we could use a wall.

  22. @wolfy
    Argentina also doesn't have high iq

    Argentina is pretty white. I didn’t see any obviously Amerinidan people there. I am sure there are some in the north with the border between Bolivia it wasn’t noticeable.

  23. @Steve from Detroit
    Daniel Ortega???

    I like to think I'm fairly knowledgeable about worldwide current events. However, I would have bet every penny of my less-than-meager 401k that this guy died at least 15 years ago. Bringing up his name is the equivalent of someone extolling the virtues of Beta-max.

    Wow, those Central Americans are really old school...

    I find it amazing too. This guy was mocked by Reagan as “the little dictator in designer glasses.” That’s a long long time ago.

  24. I’ve been waiting for this to happen.

    A few years ago, the Cubans changed their policy – they would give any Cuban that wanted one a passport. However, like citizens most poorer countries with populations eager to emigrate to greener pastures, being able to leave your home country doesn’t do you any good if you have no place willing to accept you.

    But, with Cuba, there was that wet foot/dry foot twist – if you’re Cuban and step foot in the US, you can stay. An interesting example of government immigration policy that benefits the Republicans, as the Cubans tend to vote for the opposite party than the Mexicans.

    Luckily for the US, Mexico requires visas for Cubans. If Mexico didn’t require visas, the whole island would be showing up at San Ysidro.

    However, Ecuador doesn’t require visas from Cubans – they get a 90 days visa free on arrival.

    Interestingly, Nicaraguan law provides that Cubans can receive a 30-day visa upon arrival. However, my suspicion is that the Nicaraguan immigration officers are using their discretion and not issuing visas upon arrival to Cubans. The fact that Ecuador is visa-free for Cubans while Nicaragua issues visas upon arrival suggests that the Nicaraguans are stricter.

    I suppose once in Central America they try to follow the same path as the Central Americans to head north, except I would suspect they have more cash (sent from relatives in the US and saved in Cuba) so they might actually take public transport rather than riding on the top of freight trains.

    Also, as most Cubans are a few shades lighter than most Central Americans, they probably look more like middle class Mexicans or Latin tourists get harassed less by the local cops.

    But, unlike the Central Americans once they reach the US Border they can just walk right in through a legal port of entry and they can stay.

  25. @Pepe
    I don't think too many people would call a country First World with 50% of the population living in poverty. The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising, with two million families falling from "middle class" into poverty between 2012 and 2014.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc. Hell, Mexico, sharing a 2,000 mile border with the US, falls below Ecuador and Ukraine in English proficiency!

    The most wanted criminal in the World, "El Chapo" Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico's most secure "supermax" prison before .... ahem .... tunneling out. In the newly released audio for the video in his cell at the time of the escape, you can hear loud drilling sounds in the minutes before he flees!

    Finally, I have my doubts about the whole "net zero Mexican migration" meme that's been talked about lately. If it is true, I'd say those returning are more likely deportees caught engaging in criminal acts in the US, rather than illegals returning to Mexico looking for more opportunities.

    And if there are fewer making the trek north to the US, I'd say the much publicized violence now commonly found along the migration routes is probably the cause. Heading north has gotten much more dangerous, with some of the more violent cartels now involved in kidnapping, extorting and killing migrants in Mexico.

    The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising,

    An artifact of changes in oil prices and exchange rates that does not reflect economic conditions.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc.

    So much the worse for arbitrary indicators. Mexico is richer than the home countries of 5.5 of the 7 billion people on this planet.

    The most wanted criminal in the World, “El Chapo” Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico’s most secure “supermax”

    Guzmán isn’t wanted. Mexican authorities had known where he was for decades and phoned him up in advance to tell him they were going to take him in. It was a show for the DEA to keep US foreign aid flowing.

    After he ‘escaped’ with help from the government, the Mexican Supreme Court heard his petition for immunity from extradition (in absentia, natch) and granted it.

    The Mexican government has depended on Guzmán’s organization to calm the violence between cartels and does not want to lose his services. The DEA is extremely enthusiastic about ‘catching’ him so Mexico reluctantly pretends to care sometimes.

    Of course, all the drugs Guzmán traffics in have been legalized for personal use by the Mexican congress. Cooperation with the DEA is a show Mexico puts on, law enforcement theatre for the benefit of an oblivious northern neighbor.

    I have my doubts about

    Have all the doubts you like. Mexicans and Gringos both are migrating to Mexico for the better economic conditions and quality of life.

    • Replies: @Pepe

    "An artifact of changes in oil prices and exchange rates that does not reflect economic conditions."
     
    Two problems here. The increase in poverty I cited took place between 2012 and 2014. The dramatic fall in the value of the peso v. the US dollar occurred post-2014. 2) the dramatic fall in the price of oil didn't begin until late 2014.

    “What I see is not a financial crisis due to a currency devaluation,” he said. “What I see is economic stagnation without an immediate escape."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexicos-economy-was-supposed-to-soar-its-starting-to-flop/2015/08/07/ecbf00dc-3ab4-11e5-b759-e3c43f009486_story.html


    "So much the worse for arbitrary indicators. Mexico is richer than the home countries of 5.5 of the 7 billion people on this planet."
     
    Nice how your just dismiss studies showing Mexico at the bottom of most World indices. It's starting to sound like you ignore evidence you disagree with.

    Your extended discussion of El Chapo's escape sounds precisely like the kind of antics we see in Banana Republics.


    "Have all the doubts you like. Mexicans and Gringos both are migrating to Mexico for the better economic conditions and quality of life."
     
    We have another problem. Statistics: "A new analysis of legal and illegal immigrant counts by the Census Bureau revealed Thursday that there is a record 42.1 million in the United States, an explosion that is being driven by Mexicans flooding across the border.

    In a report provided to Secrets by the Center for Immigration Studies, the total immigrant population surged 1.7 million since 2014. The growth was led in the last year by an additional 740,000 Mexican immigrants."

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/caramba-record-42.1-million-immigrants-in-u.s.-mexicans-drive-latest-surge/article/2570114

    I'll just close with two more stats for you.

    55% of Mexicans with jobs work in the informal or illegal economy. Does that sound like a First World Country?

    Only 30,000 Mexican citizens have attained a Ph.D. degree. And 11,000 live in the US!

  26. @5371
    [more migrants have moved from the USA to Mexico than vice versa since 2007]

    Nobody keeps accurate count of these movements, so there is no basis for this claim.

    [Birth rates have fallen to replacement level.]

    Oh really? (I assume you meant to write "fertility rates".) Then how did Mexico's population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?

    Then how did Mexico’s population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    Also there is net migration from the USA to Mexico for the better quality of life. Unfortunately, there is also net migration from Cuba, Argentina, the Caribbean, and Central America. Frankly, we could use a wall.

    • Replies: @5371
    OK, you are innumerate, forget about it.
  27. @(((Owen)))

    Then how did Mexico’s population continue to grow at 2% a year between its two most recent censuses?

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    Also there is net migration from the USA to Mexico for the better quality of life. Unfortunately, there is also net migration from Cuba, Argentina, the Caribbean, and Central America. Frankly, we could use a wall.

    OK, you are innumerate, forget about it.

  28. @(((Owen)))

    The latest Mexican census figures (Inegi) show that poverty is rising,
     
    An artifact of changes in oil prices and exchange rates that does not reflect economic conditions.

    Mexico consistently falls in the bottom half in all global indices measuring competitiveness, corruption, press freedom, etc.
     
    So much the worse for arbitrary indicators. Mexico is richer than the home countries of 5.5 of the 7 billion people on this planet.

    The most wanted criminal in the World, “El Chapo” Guzmán, spent only a little over a year in Mexico’s most secure “supermax”
     
    Guzmán isn't wanted. Mexican authorities had known where he was for decades and phoned him up in advance to tell him they were going to take him in. It was a show for the DEA to keep US foreign aid flowing.

    After he 'escaped' with help from the government, the Mexican Supreme Court heard his petition for immunity from extradition (in absentia, natch) and granted it.

    The Mexican government has depended on Guzmán's organization to calm the violence between cartels and does not want to lose his services. The DEA is extremely enthusiastic about 'catching' him so Mexico reluctantly pretends to care sometimes.

    Of course, all the drugs Guzmán traffics in have been legalized for personal use by the Mexican congress. Cooperation with the DEA is a show Mexico puts on, law enforcement theatre for the benefit of an oblivious northern neighbor.


    I have my doubts about
     
    Have all the doubts you like. Mexicans and Gringos both are migrating to Mexico for the better economic conditions and quality of life.

    “An artifact of changes in oil prices and exchange rates that does not reflect economic conditions.”

    Two problems here. The increase in poverty I cited took place between 2012 and 2014. The dramatic fall in the value of the peso v. the US dollar occurred post-2014. 2) the dramatic fall in the price of oil didn’t begin until late 2014.

    “What I see is not a financial crisis due to a currency devaluation,” he said. “What I see is economic stagnation without an immediate escape.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexicos-economy-was-supposed-to-soar-its-starting-to-flop/2015/08/07/ecbf00dc-3ab4-11e5-b759-e3c43f009486_story.html

    “So much the worse for arbitrary indicators. Mexico is richer than the home countries of 5.5 of the 7 billion people on this planet.”

    Nice how your just dismiss studies showing Mexico at the bottom of most World indices. It’s starting to sound like you ignore evidence you disagree with.

    Your extended discussion of El Chapo’s escape sounds precisely like the kind of antics we see in Banana Republics.

    “Have all the doubts you like. Mexicans and Gringos both are migrating to Mexico for the better economic conditions and quality of life.”

    We have another problem. Statistics: “A new analysis of legal and illegal immigrant counts by the Census Bureau revealed Thursday that there is a record 42.1 million in the United States, an explosion that is being driven by Mexicans flooding across the border.

    In a report provided to Secrets by the Center for Immigration Studies, the total immigrant population surged 1.7 million since 2014. The growth was led in the last year by an additional 740,000 Mexican immigrants.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/caramba-record-42.1-million-immigrants-in-u.s.-mexicans-drive-latest-surge/article/2570114

    I’ll just close with two more stats for you.

    55% of Mexicans with jobs work in the informal or illegal economy. Does that sound like a First World Country?

    Only 30,000 Mexican citizens have attained a Ph.D. degree. And 11,000 live in the US!

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