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From Social Science Quarterly:

The Long Road to Equality: A Meta-Regression Analysis of Changes in the Black Test Score Gap Over Time*

Authors: Nick Huntington-Klein (Prof. of Economics, Cal State-Fullerton), Elizabeth Ackert (U. of Texas)
First published: 12 February 2018

Abstract
Objective
We analyze changes in test score gaps between black students and their peers from 1979 to 2010 and examine how observable factors contribute to the gap.

Methods
Using meta-regression, we examine the relationship between African-American racial status and achievement in U.S. K–12 education in 165 published studies.

Results
The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased during the 1980s and early 1990s, but was stagnant from the late 1990s through 2010. Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap, and the influence of socioeconomic status on the gap did not change significantly over time. Schooling characteristics explained relatively little of the gap, but school-level factors increased in importance over time.

Conclusion
Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps. Observable factors explain more of the gap than has been previously recognized.

 
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  1. bomag says:

    One problem is that they didn’t include the kids from Wakanda…

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  2. anon • Disclaimer says:

    What are “observable factors”?
    What’s the difference between “schooling characteristics” and “school-level factors”?

    Maybe someone can translate this into something a layperson can understand.

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    • Replies: @Larry, San Francisco
    Observable factors means family income and martial status (whether from a single parent home). Whether these are also correlated with the student's ability.
    I think school characteristics are things like racial makeup, percent of student's who get free lunch etc.
    I am not sure how that differs from school-level factors
    , @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    IQ (via testing) is an observable factor.
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  3. Wakanda natives even out score northeast Asians.

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  4. Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap …

    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don’t actually mean what some people think they mean–”caused by poverty” or “lower income” or “family structure”–with the implication that if we just “fix” those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this “socioeconomic status” is almost certainly largely–though not completely–the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it’s actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that’s not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets–who are vastly superior to other blacks–is quite striking.

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    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    basically they didn't control for IQ in their regression.
    , @Autochthon
    Right. Stefan Molyneaux's recent talk "Shithole Countries," with its analogies of human achievement on a racial level to the theories of disease (miasmas vs. germs), is especially apposite to refuting this kind of nonsense intentionally confusing cause with effect and conflating correlation with causation.
    , @Bill

    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don’t actually mean what some people think they mean–”caused by poverty” or “lower income” or “family structure”–with the implication that if we just “fix” those then the gap shrinks.
     
    Obviously, you're right that their findings don't justify causal conclusions. Usually, though, authors mean for inattentive and/or friendly readers to take away that meaning. You can see it in the abstract above where they slip from the arguably correlational "explained by" to the more clearly causal "influenced." Actually, all the commonly used words for correlational relationships in regression analysis sound, to a greater or lesser extent, like causal words. The lack of development and consistent use of a separate technical vocabulary is telling---there is a separate technical vocabulary ("partial correlation, partial correlate, etc"), but it does not tend to get used all that much.

    If you read the linked paper (or just the intro and conclusion), it's quite clear that they want you to take away causal conclusions, e.g. "Our work suggests that socioeconomic status continues to be a key determinant of black–white test score gaps." Under pressure, the authors would presumably declaim a causal interpretation of this sentence, but, uh, reading it as non-causal is not easy. What does "determinant" mean?

    If they don't want causal conclusions, then what are they even doing writing the paper? Science is about finding causal conclusions. "Naw, we're just documenting stuff, man. If you take away causal conclusions, man, it's not our fault."

    Somewhat related, here is a comical sentence from the paper:

    Phillips et al. (1998), however, concluded that a wider set of socioeconomic indicators, such as grandparents’ educational attainment, mothers’ school quality, birth weight, and parenting practices explained about two-thirds of the black–white test score gap.
     
    D00d! Every time we control for more proxies for genetic intelligence, the test score gap decreases. \footnote{Hey, remember when Satan wrote that book where he actually controlled for IQ itself and racial gaps pretty much disappeared?} Actually, on second thought, let's not include that footnote. Grandparents' education. For pity's sake.
    , @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    But that is the perception that they want to create in the literature. Perhaps in order to have more money thrown at the perceived problems, (with the experts in charge of distributing the money, naturally) and over time, the gap will indeed be solved and fixed.

    That's certainly the public perception that's been created since the '60's. With more tax money, eventually the gap will be closed. More social programs, more money.
    , @Olorin
    This what I came down here to note. "Socioeconomic status" didn't "explain" anything. It may correlate with other factors, but only the post hoc fallacy connects the two as the abstract above does (in a causal manner).

    But you have to hand it to them: using the term "explain" is deftly slippery. You don't have to say "correlated" (which leaves you open to specific methodological challenges--or requires you to understand them in the first place) or "caused" (which leaves you open to someone saying "prove it" or more accurately "frame it in testable falsifiable terms").

    "Explain" is thus both slippery and the perfect word in this ideological context coming as it does iirc from the Latin, explanare, literally "to flatten [something] out."

    I'm sure most iSteve readers know this...but the state of "social" "sciences" is abysmal. The good part is that these people, who for over half a century have been charging forward in all directions with vast infusions of taxpayer bling supporting Equality nonsense, are starting to feel the flames licking at the soles of their feet. But they will do and say whatever it takes to protect their academic sinecures.

    FWIW, the hyphenated author, schooled at Reed and UDub Seattle:

    http://nickchk.com/
    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_cv.pdf
    http://news.fullerton.edu/2016wi/Nicholas-Huntington-Klein.aspx

    He's got a forthcoming paper on how chicks do better in organizations where other chicks band together to advance chicks in the organization.

    You can hire him freelance to crunch numbers for you, for he's "looking for supplementary work in order to save up for some major purchases":

    https://www.upwork.com/o/profiles/users/_~01c9b64ae0a5715037/

    Including, it appears, a baby:

    http://www.newnownext.com/married-gay-couple-wins-10000-gsn-game-show-idiotest/04/2017/

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  5. OT:

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    ——————————————————————

    Source: YouTube

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  6. dearieme says:

    “The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased”: what is an absolute relationship? Whatever that might be, how can it decrease?

    My mother tongue is English. That seems to put me at a disadvantage here.

    P.S. I hate it when people use “explain” in the statistical sense in any context where it might be mistaken for “explain” in the everyday sense. Indeed, I wish a grand conference of statisticians would just change that item in their terminology.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    “The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased”

    Meaning--- what exactly? This needs elaboration.

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  7. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Problem solved. Gaps will disappear when all our minds are A.I.ed.

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  8. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.

    So. federal education policy didn’t close the gap. 165 published studies. I’m convinced. It won’t be done.

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  9. Vinteuil says:

    “Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.”

    Knock me over with a feather.

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    • LOL: ben tillman
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  10. Hubbub says:

    Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.

    Dagnabit to hell!

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  11. utu says:

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap, and the influence of socioeconomic status on the gap did not change significantly over time.

    Several months ago commenter res posted at unz.com SAT data for Blacks and Whites for different family income brackets. Within a very good approximation the difference between Whites and Blacks ∆SAT is constant, i.e., it is independent of the income bracket. ∆SAT is the same whether family income brakes is $160k or $40k. Using this data it can be shown that race alone can explain slightly over 50% of SAT variance.

    Frankly I found it hard to think of other than genetic explanation that affects poor and rich kids in the same way. Why rich Black kids underperform by the same amount as poor kids? What Black kids from $200,000 income bracket are still lacking that they underperform White kids form the same bracket? If it is not genes then what cultural differences account for it that did not preclude their parents to become financially well off.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Don't worry. Top-tier intellectuals like TrynnaSqueezeMe Coates are investigating this matter thoroughly and will soon come up with an irrefutable response.
    , @Bill
    Stereotype threat supercharged by epigenetics. Also the black parents don't play enough Mozart at home.
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  12. O'Really says:

    Steve – small point — Wiley is the publisher. The article is from the journal Social Science Quarterly.

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  13. Tulip says:

    Did they look at IQ independent of SES?

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  14. peterike says:

    The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased during the 1980s and early 1990s, but was stagnant from the late 1990s through 2010.

    So when the “absolute relationship” was decreasing, were things getting better or worse? And did the stagnation that followed indicate that the decline stopped or that the improvement stopped? Honestly, I can’t tell.

    But if things were getting better until the early 1990s and then the improvement flat-lined, I would offer this amended version.

    The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased during the 1980s and early 1990s, and then hip-hop happened, but was stagnant from the late 1990s through 2010.

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  15. Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap…

    Isn’t this statement a case of actual “scientists” succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?

    For them to say it that way in the results section, “…status explained more than half the gap…” implies to me at least that deep down they assume status causes something, when in this case it simply correlates and might just as well be caused by the same thing that causes the gap: race.

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    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Isn’t this statement a case of actual “scientists” succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?
     
    No, you're not wrong.
    , @Bill
    They would defend themselves against this accusation by saying that the word "explained" has a specific, statistical meaning which only means correlation, not causation.

    Most likely, they are trying to trick their readers. Well, not exactly trick all their readers. Trick any casual policy-wolicy or journalist type reader. However, there is an outside chance that they are so stupid that they make the mistake you are talking about.
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  16. Buck says:

    The Washington Post had an article about Black Panther where it is explained that Wakanda’s technological prowess is due to using their mineral wealth to fund education. Because the more you spend on education, the better your results and achievements. Someone needs to alert the authors that their conclusion is unwoke.

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    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    That's a better explanation than vibranium. Surely we all know about the "resource curse" and how it unbalances economies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

    Africa is chock full of rare and valuable minerals, but somehow the wealth all seems to end up in London, Zug, Tel Aviv or, increasingly, China.
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  17. @anon
    What are "observable factors"?
    What's the difference between "schooling characteristics" and "school-level factors"?

    Maybe someone can translate this into something a layperson can understand.

    Observable factors means family income and martial status (whether from a single parent home). Whether these are also correlated with the student’s ability.
    I think school characteristics are things like racial makeup, percent of student’s who get free lunch etc.
    I am not sure how that differs from school-level factors

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  18. Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.

    Solution: “Federal education policy” should seek to widen racial achievement gaps. That won’t close the gap, but should at least retard its growth.

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  19. It’d be nice to read James Thompson’s take on this, but he must be tied up with something else, like secret eugenics operations.

    Hopefully he eventually gets back in the groove … to fill us in on the latest diet plans.

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  20. Steve, in general researchers will gladly supply a free PDF of their articles on request by e-mail. Maybe you could snag a copy and do a more thorough write-up.

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    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    The "working paper" version -- the same paper without professional-quality graphics -- is freely available on the researcher's academic web page.

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf
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  21. @Buzz Mohawk

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap...
     
    Isn't this statement a case of actual "scientists" succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?

    For them to say it that way in the results section, "...status explained more than half the gap..." implies to me at least that deep down they assume status causes something, when in this case it simply correlates and might just as well be caused by the same thing that causes the gap: race.

    Isn’t this statement a case of actual “scientists” succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?

    No, you’re not wrong.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    Well actually, he is wrong. The word "causation" does not appear in the paper; nor does the word "cause." I did a word search. The paper is quite carefully done in terms of statistical methodology and makes no statement like that -- see the paper:

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf

    It even mentions (very briefly) the shocking thought that there might be a genetic explanation for the gap (page 4).

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  22. Traditionally SES, social-economic status, has correlated highly with intelligence. So it would be a confounding factor, and you wouldn’t “control for SES” against intelligence and claim that improving SES will improve intelligence, since improving SES would mean raising intelligence. But that’s what left-wing social scientists have done.

    But I think that the problem that has begun to arise is that SES is no longer the rock-solid factor that it used to be. The simplest way to compute SES has been to use income, highest educational level achieved, and a number assigned to job category that indicate status level. So income is your salary or other income, highest educational level would be high school or master’s degree or whatever, and job category would be something like journalist or professor (which might be high status but low income). You weigh and average these factors to get an SES.

    But various affirmative action developments have made SES unreliable. You have black professors who never really legitimately passed an algebra 2 class and made it through university with some sort of fake major like ethnic studies. You have black government employees with inflated job titles. You have doctors whose MCATs were 200 points below the lowest white MCAT and who passed the boards by taking time off of internships to cram, not allowed for white interns. All this has given a fake rise to job category scores in SES calculations, has raised income artificially, and has degraded the value of educational credentials.

    So when you run the old statistical calculations, you seem to see a disconnect of the old SES vs. IQ correlation. SES is going up, but not IQ. I’d really like to see the details of what this meta study found in relation to SES and IQ.

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  23. @AnotherDad

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap ...
     
    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don't actually mean what some people think they mean--"caused by poverty" or "lower income" or "family structure"--with the implication that if we just "fix" those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this "socioeconomic status" is almost certainly largely--though not completely--the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it's actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that's not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets--who are vastly superior to other blacks--is quite striking.

    basically they didn’t control for IQ in their regression.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    Is that a Claude Steele / stereotype threat joke?

    I'm amused...
    , @jb

    basically they didn’t control for IQ in their regression.
     
    Aren't the test scores themselves a pretty good proxy for IQ? I don't think you want to control for the thing you are trying to explain!
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  24. @Chris Marsk
    Steve, in general researchers will gladly supply a free PDF of their articles on request by e-mail. Maybe you could snag a copy and do a more thorough write-up.

    The “working paper” version — the same paper without professional-quality graphics — is freely available on the researcher’s academic web page.

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf

    Read More
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  25. AndrewR says:
    @utu

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap, and the influence of socioeconomic status on the gap did not change significantly over time.
     
    Several months ago commenter res posted at unz.com SAT data for Blacks and Whites for different family income brackets. Within a very good approximation the difference between Whites and Blacks ∆SAT is constant, i.e., it is independent of the income bracket. ∆SAT is the same whether family income brakes is $160k or $40k. Using this data it can be shown that race alone can explain slightly over 50% of SAT variance.

    Frankly I found it hard to think of other than genetic explanation that affects poor and rich kids in the same way. Why rich Black kids underperform by the same amount as poor kids? What Black kids from $200,000 income bracket are still lacking that they underperform White kids form the same bracket? If it is not genes then what cultural differences account for it that did not preclude their parents to become financially well off.

    Don’t worry. Top-tier intellectuals like TrynnaSqueezeMe Coates are investigating this matter thoroughly and will soon come up with an irrefutable response.

    Read More
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  26. @ben tillman

    Isn’t this statement a case of actual “scientists” succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?
     
    No, you're not wrong.

    Well actually, he is wrong. The word “causation” does not appear in the paper; nor does the word “cause.” I did a word search. The paper is quite carefully done in terms of statistical methodology and makes no statement like that — see the paper:

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf

    It even mentions (very briefly) the shocking thought that there might be a genetic explanation for the gap (page 4).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    What then do they mean when they write that status "explained" more than half the gap?

    I am open to the possibility that "explain" can mean something different in statistical analysis, but someone would have to "explain" it to me.
    , @ben tillman
    Thanks for the info.
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  27. Ben Kurtz says: • Website

    More perceptive observers have known for a long time that our country’s modest progress in black/white gap closure, which started post WWII, petered out in the 1980s or so, even as attempts to close the gap grew ever more desperate.

    There’s a stubborn 1SD gap between black and white academic test performance that exists within each income bracket; in fact, the richest black students barely pull even with the poorest white students on the SAT, and the gap diverges from there.

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract. I frankly recommend that we stop wasting our time and money even trying:

    https://benkurtzblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/the-blackwhite-sat-gap/

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    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    That is a very clear and intuitively appealing graphical depiction on your blog -- showing average SAT scores of each group for each income bracket. Very nice. Is that captured in this Huntington-Klein paper? It is a clear and convincing graph.
    , @MSP
    Ben, I think your analysis of SD gap is wrong. The SD for each section is 100. Treating a gap of 150 points for both sections combined as a 1.5SD gap is incorrect. In addition, I wonder if a much smaller proportion of poor white kids take the test (primarily high performers) compared to affluent AA kids. That might skew the results as well.
    , @Jack D

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract.
     
    If you mean by something that you do in the schools (or pre-school or pre-preschool or anything later than 9 months before the kid is born) then of course you are absolutely right.


    BUT, we haven't even scratch the surface of what is possible with eugenics (because eugenics = Hitler). Even putting aside science fiction possibilities such as gene editing (which are going to be very hard even when the technology improves because IQ doesn't seem to reside on any single gene - pretty soon they are going to be able to remove single gene mutations like the one that causes cystic fibrosis not only from the affected fertilized egg but permanently from his germ line, but you aren't going to be able to fix stupid). Just with plain old fashioned breeding techniques (whereby you can transform a wolf into a chihuahua.) For example, among the ultra-Orthodox, in cases where the father and the mother both carry genes for Tay-Sachs disease, parents do not hesitate to have children by artificial insemination (strangely, it raises fewer halachic problems if the donor father is NOT Jewish) and this is fully supported by the parents and their community. If we regard stupidity as such a disease, black females could (and remember most of them are not married to the fathers anyway) be artificially inseminated by high IQ Igbos (so their kids would not look like whitey) and after a few generations of this they would be noticeably smarter.

    OR, since IQ is maybe 50% environmental, we could be much more aggressive about getting kids out of bad environments. Black kids raised by white middle class mothers (like Obama) tend to do better than black kids raised in the ghetto. Instead of white ladies adopting cats (since they don't seem to want to have their own kids) they could adopt black babies borne by unfit black teen mothers instead, if this was not considered to be cultural genocide.

    BUT, this would require a radical change in thinking from the current discourse where failure of what you are doing just means that you have to try the same thing over again but this time try even harder and spend even more money because the evil spell of white racism has not yet been cast out.

    I have zero realistic hope that our national discourse could be changed so that this is a viable alternative but I am pointing out that this is really a failure of willingness to think outside the box and look at the true causes of the problem and not because there are really no solutions possible at all, ever. Note that I am not talking about radical or cruel solutions such as forced sterilization, but rather just simple measures that (at least in another time and place) would be considered humane and the right thing to do and could be again if we were not nuts. We are like the drunk who keeps looking for his keys under the street lamp even though he didn't drop them there, because the light is better under the lamp.
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  28. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Arthur Jensen.

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  29. Ben Kurtz says: • Website
    @Erik Sieven
    basically they didn't control for IQ in their regression.

    Is that a Claude Steele / stereotype threat joke?

    I’m amused…

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  30. Hells-Bells … one could say the decline correlates with the increase of the popularity of Rap music.

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    • Agree: Autochthon
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    When it comes to the impact of social conditioning, rap really does seem like a reasonable candidate for being a Big One, a bad mind virus.
    , @stillCARealist
    Somebody up above said it was hip-hop. Rap and Hip Hop are different, right? I mean, rap is far worse, even if Hip Hop is a subset of rap. Rap isn't music, it's just talking in rhythm, anger and malice. The latest stuff that I hear barely has any background happening at all. Hip hop is just popular dance music done by blacks.
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  31. @The Alarmist
    Hells-Bells ... one could say the decline correlates with the increase of the popularity of Rap music.

    When it comes to the impact of social conditioning, rap really does seem like a reasonable candidate for being a Big One, a bad mind virus.

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    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    I would say the r2 is very strong with this relationship. The question to be tested would likely be one to determine if rap is a stimulus or a response.

    See anonymous just above ....

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it. Or maybe it is the noise produced by an untuned mind.

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  32. @Ben Kurtz
    More perceptive observers have known for a long time that our country's modest progress in black/white gap closure, which started post WWII, petered out in the 1980s or so, even as attempts to close the gap grew ever more desperate.

    There's a stubborn 1SD gap between black and white academic test performance that exists within each income bracket; in fact, the richest black students barely pull even with the poorest white students on the SAT, and the gap diverges from there.

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract. I frankly recommend that we stop wasting our time and money even trying:

    https://benkurtzblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/the-blackwhite-sat-gap/

    That is a very clear and intuitively appealing graphical depiction on your blog — showing average SAT scores of each group for each income bracket. Very nice. Is that captured in this Huntington-Klein paper? It is a clear and convincing graph.

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  33. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    When it comes to the impact of social conditioning, rap really does seem like a reasonable candidate for being a Big One, a bad mind virus.

    This might affect all kinds of behavior, but I don’t see how it affects IQ test results. IQ test results are consistently a standard deviation down, and arrange in a reasonably clean bell curve. Is there some way that black kids would decide not to “act white” that would result in this? “Let’s rebel from whitey. We’ll take all these damn tests, but listen up, every tenth question make sure to answer with an obviously wrong answer! Everyone got it? That will show them! Pass it on.”

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  34. Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.

    And that’s after 30 years of manipulating blacks’ test scores, special classes, dumbing down exams, and removing words like “regatta” from the SAT.

    Read More
    • Replies: @BB753
    That word always had me confused because of these pigs:

    https://youtu.be/EFkUS1sSoPA
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    What's regatta? Is it a kind of Italian pasta sauce?
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  35. @Steve Sailer
    When it comes to the impact of social conditioning, rap really does seem like a reasonable candidate for being a Big One, a bad mind virus.

    I would say the r2 is very strong with this relationship. The question to be tested would likely be one to determine if rap is a stimulus or a response.

    See anonymous just above ….

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it. Or maybe it is the noise produced by an untuned mind.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    There was a shift in the orientation of rap lyrics around 1988 from goofy/didactic to malignant.
    , @peterike

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it.

     

    Along these lines, I've wondered if anyone has done a study on the effect of headphones/ear buds? They are everywhere, and most especially you see blacks wearing them (though plenty of whites do as well). I've seen young blacks on airplanes have them in their ears for an entire six hour flight. Rap music fed directly into the ear like that has got to have some kind of impact.
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  36. @Buck
    The Washington Post had an article about Black Panther where it is explained that Wakanda's technological prowess is due to using their mineral wealth to fund education. Because the more you spend on education, the better your results and achievements. Someone needs to alert the authors that their conclusion is unwoke.

    That’s a better explanation than vibranium. Surely we all know about the “resource curse” and how it unbalances economies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

    Africa is chock full of rare and valuable minerals, but somehow the wealth all seems to end up in London, Zug, Tel Aviv or, increasingly, China.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bill
    Isn't the resource curse another one of these reverse causation problems? Why are active mines so often in some strange, distant, uncivilized place? Because all the easily mineable materials close to civilization have already been mined.

    It seems to me that the resource curse may be that crappy, uncivilized places don't exploit the resources they have, so they are still sitting around. I mean, did Saudi Arabia get crappier after the Europeans discovered oil there? Or was the oil discovered there late because Saudi Arabia was crappy?

    Pennsylvania didn't fall apart when oil was discovered there. Texas didn't fall apart when oil was discovered there. Pennsylvania isn't falling apart now that masses of natural gas have been discovered there.
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  37. @The Alarmist
    I would say the r2 is very strong with this relationship. The question to be tested would likely be one to determine if rap is a stimulus or a response.

    See anonymous just above ....

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it. Or maybe it is the noise produced by an untuned mind.

    There was a shift in the orientation of rap lyrics around 1988 from goofy/didactic to malignant.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    There is definitely a feedback loop there. The underlying music (beat, rhythym, melody, etc.) started to mutate from stuff we could all listen to (Motown, Earth Wind & Fire, Whitney Houston) to stuff we could all sort of like (Will Smith, MC Hammer) to stuff that could be played to torture dictators (Jay-Z and, oddly enough, Eminem), and the words just followed as the minds behind it degenerated.
    , @william munny
    In the last few years, there has been a noticeable shift in the orientation of rap lyrics into an unexpected direction. Many of the most popular hip-hop guys are talking about their feelings, struggles with fame, inability to trust people, feeling unappreciated, and so on. I was listening in the car with my niece and laughed and asked who were these pussies, in my day rappers bragged about shooting people in the face. Some of these songs could have been written by an Irish mother. There are still plenty of songs about being rich and dealing drugs, but I was surprised. Imagine a generation of young black men who emulate this.
    , @Autochthon
    I think though that rap as such isn't the cause of the decline. (Negroes used to actually play musical instruments and be in bands with people of other races, too; remember Randy Jackson?) Rather, rap is the most readily observable aspect of the general trend for Negroes to obstinately maintain a separate and inferiour (sub)culture and vociferously reject the previous aspirations to assimilate with the rest of us: the contempt for education, grammar, elocution, norms regarding apparel, hairstyles, marriage and having and raising children in wedlock, and so on. And, above all, a pathological insistence that "I am completely different from you (Americans of European stock) and I don't have to do anything you do; to the extent we've different levels of achievement it's nothing to do with my insistence on doing everything differently, but entirely because you are irredeemably evil and racism means I means I can never get ahead despite my equal (or indeed superiour) status."

    A kind of "proud to be a victim and a hopeless case" mindset became rampant.

    Just imagine if Celts ran around drinking like fishes and or Italians all wallowed in the culture of the mafia, and we're indignant at the very suggestion these were maladaptive behaviours: it wouldn't be Irish reels or pasta causing the troubles, those would just stand in as easily recognisable aspects of the underlying refusal to assimilate and eschew harmful behaviours.
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  38. @Steve Sailer
    There was a shift in the orientation of rap lyrics around 1988 from goofy/didactic to malignant.

    There is definitely a feedback loop there. The underlying music (beat, rhythym, melody, etc.) started to mutate from stuff we could all listen to (Motown, Earth Wind & Fire, Whitney Houston) to stuff we could all sort of like (Will Smith, MC Hammer) to stuff that could be played to torture dictators (Jay-Z and, oddly enough, Eminem), and the words just followed as the minds behind it degenerated.

    Read More
    • Replies: @stillCARealist
    I've been doing Crossfit for the past 6 months or so and consequently been introduced to the latest in workout music. The coach has his tablet set up to play lists of music specifically aimed at gyms, IOW it's not necessarily his music that he's choosing.

    It's appalling. I mean that in every sense. It's either foul-mouthed punk noise or filthy, angry rap noise. One "song" was nothing but a guy screaming "mother f-ing bitch!" over and over. Somebody asked, "Was that the Dead Kennedys?"

    Then I look at who is working out. Crossfit is expensive and the clientele is mostly status-conscious whites. Could these people, who drive nice cars and have good paying jobs, possibly live like the music they're listening to? No way! If they acted out what came out of that stuff they'd be in prison or dead.

    So if we worry that degraded culture is hurting black kids, it will certainly affect the other races shortly. It's just not possible to keep a clean heart and listen to modern music. Same with movies and TV.
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  39. johnlee says: • Website

    stats are getting more sophisticated but the basic fact remains the same.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    Getting the scientific community to agree that HBD explains the race gap in educational outcomes is just like the character in Monty Python trying to convince the shopkeeper to admit the parrot is dead, and give him a refund. As more and more evidence accumulates eventually the mainstream scientific community will give up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218
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  40. @Steve Sailer
    There was a shift in the orientation of rap lyrics around 1988 from goofy/didactic to malignant.

    In the last few years, there has been a noticeable shift in the orientation of rap lyrics into an unexpected direction. Many of the most popular hip-hop guys are talking about their feelings, struggles with fame, inability to trust people, feeling unappreciated, and so on. I was listening in the car with my niece and laughed and asked who were these pussies, in my day rappers bragged about shooting people in the face. Some of these songs could have been written by an Irish mother. There are still plenty of songs about being rich and dealing drugs, but I was surprised. Imagine a generation of young black men who emulate this.

    Read More
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  41. BB753 says:
    @E. Rekshun

    Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.
     
    And that's after 30 years of manipulating blacks' test scores, special classes, dumbing down exams, and removing words like "regatta" from the SAT.

    That word always had me confused because of these pigs:

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  42. @johnlee
    stats are getting more sophisticated but the basic fact remains the same.

    Getting the scientific community to agree that HBD explains the race gap in educational outcomes is just like the character in Monty Python trying to convince the shopkeeper to admit the parrot is dead, and give him a refund. As more and more evidence accumulates eventually the mainstream scientific community will give up.

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  43. Socioeconomic factors explained more than half of the gap….

    The researchers – renowned experts on the direction of causality – are most famous for their previous discovery that wet streets cause rain and the dry sands of deserts cause those areas to experience little precipitation….

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  44. Bruce Caplan and Charles Murray are saying that too many people are going to college, but the Chronicle of Higher Education says that too few are, and it’s making them sick.

    https://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Lack-of-a-College-Degree/242524

    The Lack of a College Degree Is a Public-Health Crisis. Here’s What Higher Ed Can Do About It.

    People who don’t go to college are getting sicker and dying younger. That’s the reality playing out in a region of southeastern Missouri known as the Bootheel, one of many poverty-stricken rural areas across the country where few residents have four-year degrees.

    Research has shown that education makes a difference in terms of health outcomes: Get a college degree, and you’re more likely to lead a healthier and more prosperous life. Go without, and, for a number of reasons, you’re more likely to face a range of health problems

    I think there’s causation confusion here. People who have high IQs go to college and also take care of themselves, or might even have more congenital health risks. The IQ is the cause of both outcomes. Just sending someone to college won’t necessarily make him healthier (or smarter).

    Consider the difference in remaining life expectancy at age 25 between those with less than a high-school degree and those with a college degree or more. For white women, the college graduate can expect to live roughly nine years longer than the high-school dropout. But for black women, this college-degree advantage is reduced to roughly five years.

    Why might this be? Presumably the black college women are at the bottom of their college classes and have lower IQs than the white women. So there is a greater span there, and health outcomes would be better for the white women. But it also might be the case that white high school dropouts have lower IQs than black dropouts, given the pressure schools are put under to keep blacks in school and graduating. So the overall IQ span between a white dropout and a white college graduate will be greater than the span for correspoding black students. A delta of nine vs. five years seems about right.

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    • Replies: @Forbes
    Ed schools and Ed journals (much less teachers) not exactly known for rational, logical, mathematical rigor.

    The premise that college determines health outcomes, is just such an example.
    , @Triumph104
    Black women are more likely to attend less rigorous colleges, such as for-profits and HBCUs, than white women. If the US were like Finland and only had rigorous universities (not to be confused with polytechnics), then the life-expectancy gap would be smaller for college graduates.

    Loaded with student loan debt, many black women with college degrees don't lead significantly different lives than high school dropouts. They live in the same neighborhoods, attend the same churches and nightclubs, and sometimes date similar levels of men.

    The New York Times did a story on married college-educated black professionals with poor credit who lived in crime-ridden black neighborhoods in Milwaukee.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/milwaukee-segregation-wealthy-black-families.html

    , @Jack D
    They should use the solution that the Wizard of Oz used on the Scarecrow. Give everyone a college degree and their life expectancy will instantly go up by 9 years! This simple measure, requiring only an inkjet printer and some vellum paper, will revolutionize public health! I know a woman of color who is fully qualified to bid for this contract and will do it for $50 million - she even has an inkjet printer already and will buy some ink cartridges and paper as soon as she gets some advance money on her contract. We should have done this years ago and would have except for those dirty rat Republicans.
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  45. @AnotherDad

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap ...
     
    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don't actually mean what some people think they mean--"caused by poverty" or "lower income" or "family structure"--with the implication that if we just "fix" those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this "socioeconomic status" is almost certainly largely--though not completely--the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it's actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that's not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets--who are vastly superior to other blacks--is quite striking.

    Right. Stefan Molyneaux’s recent talk “Shithole Countries,” with its analogies of human achievement on a racial level to the theories of disease (miasmas vs. germs), is especially apposite to refuting this kind of nonsense intentionally confusing cause with effect and conflating correlation with causation.

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  46. @Steve Sailer
    There was a shift in the orientation of rap lyrics around 1988 from goofy/didactic to malignant.

    I think though that rap as such isn’t the cause of the decline. (Negroes used to actually play musical instruments and be in bands with people of other races, too; remember Randy Jackson?) Rather, rap is the most readily observable aspect of the general trend for Negroes to obstinately maintain a separate and inferiour (sub)culture and vociferously reject the previous aspirations to assimilate with the rest of us: the contempt for education, grammar, elocution, norms regarding apparel, hairstyles, marriage and having and raising children in wedlock, and so on. And, above all, a pathological insistence that “I am completely different from you (Americans of European stock) and I don’t have to do anything you do; to the extent we’ve different levels of achievement it’s nothing to do with my insistence on doing everything differently, but entirely because you are irredeemably evil and racism means I means I can never get ahead despite my equal (or indeed superiour) status.”

    A kind of “proud to be a victim and a hopeless case” mindset became rampant.

    Just imagine if Celts ran around drinking like fishes and or Italians all wallowed in the culture of the mafia, and we’re indignant at the very suggestion these were maladaptive behaviours: it wouldn’t be Irish reels or pasta causing the troubles, those would just stand in as easily recognisable aspects of the underlying refusal to assimilate and eschew harmful behaviours.

    Read More
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  47. MSP says:
    @Ben Kurtz
    More perceptive observers have known for a long time that our country's modest progress in black/white gap closure, which started post WWII, petered out in the 1980s or so, even as attempts to close the gap grew ever more desperate.

    There's a stubborn 1SD gap between black and white academic test performance that exists within each income bracket; in fact, the richest black students barely pull even with the poorest white students on the SAT, and the gap diverges from there.

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract. I frankly recommend that we stop wasting our time and money even trying:

    https://benkurtzblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/the-blackwhite-sat-gap/

    Ben, I think your analysis of SD gap is wrong. The SD for each section is 100. Treating a gap of 150 points for both sections combined as a 1.5SD gap is incorrect. In addition, I wonder if a much smaller proportion of poor white kids take the test (primarily high performers) compared to affluent AA kids. That might skew the results as well.

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    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    You are right about the section vs. composite standard deviation point. I had read up on SAT norming so long ago I forgot to check the specific reference point for the 100 point SD rule of thumb.

    I've double checked and the consensus on the internet is that the standard deviation for the composite SAT score tends to be in the 180s or 190s. It's not quite the sum of the standard deviations of the two sections, given that performance tends to correlate rather strongly between the two sections -- pesky old "g" strikes again!

    I've made a correction to my original blog post.

    As far as selection biases go -- you are right. They must exist. I acknowledge as much in my blog post. Yet the gap is so consistent and persistent up and down the income scale that they can't really be so overwhelmingly confounding, in the end.
    , @Jack D
    It's probably not that difficult to find out whether these groups take the SAt at different rates. IIRC, in some states they now give the ACT to everyone so if there was any such effect it would not appear in the ACT scores in that state. I suspect the effect, if it exists at all, is very small.

    There is also a possible effect in the other direction - the richer you are (black or white) the more likely it is that you can afford expensive private SAT tutoring. When I was a poor farm boy I got a Barron's paperback prep book and that was the extent of my SAT tutoring but some rich families spend thousands on getting their kids tutored. Rich blacks have somewhat different spending priorities than whites but if your kid goes to an expensive private school he will probably pester you to have whatever his friends have.

    Another factor in recent years is that due to a court decision, the College Board is no longer allowed to asterisk scores taken under extended time or untimed conditions (this would be discrimination against the handicapped, which includes the "learning disabled"). So it is a veritable racket nowadays that rich parents get their kids classified (through special testing) as "learning disabled" and so Jon the private school kid has 50% more time to take the SAT than Johnny the public school kid in Iowa (but the colleges don't know that Jon got extra time). Johnny the public school kid in Iowa is not networked in enough to know that this is even possible and even if he did, if he went to his mom who works for $10.50/hr at Wal-Mart and said, hey mom, I need $4,000 to get tested so that I have more time to take the SAT, you can imagine what the answer would be. But there are rich folks who would (and do) consider that to be a bargain - the price of outright buying your kid's way into Harvard (like Kushner) is in the millions, but there are people who pay it.
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  48. peterike says:
    @The Alarmist
    I would say the r2 is very strong with this relationship. The question to be tested would likely be one to determine if rap is a stimulus or a response.

    See anonymous just above ....

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it. Or maybe it is the noise produced by an untuned mind.

    There are some indications that music affects the cognative wiring(the whole playing Mozart to your unborn or newborn child thingy from a few years back), and maybe rap crosses the wiring or short-circuits it.

    Along these lines, I’ve wondered if anyone has done a study on the effect of headphones/ear buds? They are everywhere, and most especially you see blacks wearing them (though plenty of whites do as well). I’ve seen young blacks on airplanes have them in their ears for an entire six hour flight. Rap music fed directly into the ear like that has got to have some kind of impact.

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  49. @The Alarmist
    Hells-Bells ... one could say the decline correlates with the increase of the popularity of Rap music.

    Somebody up above said it was hip-hop. Rap and Hip Hop are different, right? I mean, rap is far worse, even if Hip Hop is a subset of rap. Rap isn’t music, it’s just talking in rhythm, anger and malice. The latest stuff that I hear barely has any background happening at all. Hip hop is just popular dance music done by blacks.

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  50. @The Alarmist
    There is definitely a feedback loop there. The underlying music (beat, rhythym, melody, etc.) started to mutate from stuff we could all listen to (Motown, Earth Wind & Fire, Whitney Houston) to stuff we could all sort of like (Will Smith, MC Hammer) to stuff that could be played to torture dictators (Jay-Z and, oddly enough, Eminem), and the words just followed as the minds behind it degenerated.

    I’ve been doing Crossfit for the past 6 months or so and consequently been introduced to the latest in workout music. The coach has his tablet set up to play lists of music specifically aimed at gyms, IOW it’s not necessarily his music that he’s choosing.

    It’s appalling. I mean that in every sense. It’s either foul-mouthed punk noise or filthy, angry rap noise. One “song” was nothing but a guy screaming “mother f-ing bitch!” over and over. Somebody asked, “Was that the Dead Kennedys?”

    Then I look at who is working out. Crossfit is expensive and the clientele is mostly status-conscious whites. Could these people, who drive nice cars and have good paying jobs, possibly live like the music they’re listening to? No way! If they acted out what came out of that stuff they’d be in prison or dead.

    So if we worry that degraded culture is hurting black kids, it will certainly affect the other races shortly. It’s just not possible to keep a clean heart and listen to modern music. Same with movies and TV.

    Read More
    • Replies: @fredyetagain aka superhonky
    "One “song” was nothing but a guy screaming “mother f-ing bitch!” over and over."

    Could this have been the song? This song is on a compilation album I bought about 35 years ago. Dead Kennedys were on the album, but this song is by a band called Bad Posture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-SA-uB5yus
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  51. Bill says:
    @AnotherDad

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap ...
     
    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don't actually mean what some people think they mean--"caused by poverty" or "lower income" or "family structure"--with the implication that if we just "fix" those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this "socioeconomic status" is almost certainly largely--though not completely--the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it's actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that's not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets--who are vastly superior to other blacks--is quite striking.

    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don’t actually mean what some people think they mean–”caused by poverty” or “lower income” or “family structure”–with the implication that if we just “fix” those then the gap shrinks.

    Obviously, you’re right that their findings don’t justify causal conclusions. Usually, though, authors mean for inattentive and/or friendly readers to take away that meaning. You can see it in the abstract above where they slip from the arguably correlational “explained by” to the more clearly causal “influenced.” Actually, all the commonly used words for correlational relationships in regression analysis sound, to a greater or lesser extent, like causal words. The lack of development and consistent use of a separate technical vocabulary is telling—there is a separate technical vocabulary (“partial correlation, partial correlate, etc”), but it does not tend to get used all that much.

    If you read the linked paper (or just the intro and conclusion), it’s quite clear that they want you to take away causal conclusions, e.g. “Our work suggests that socioeconomic status continues to be a key determinant of black–white test score gaps.” Under pressure, the authors would presumably declaim a causal interpretation of this sentence, but, uh, reading it as non-causal is not easy. What does “determinant” mean?

    If they don’t want causal conclusions, then what are they even doing writing the paper? Science is about finding causal conclusions. “Naw, we’re just documenting stuff, man. If you take away causal conclusions, man, it’s not our fault.”

    Somewhat related, here is a comical sentence from the paper:

    Phillips et al. (1998), however, concluded that a wider set of socioeconomic indicators, such as grandparents’ educational attainment, mothers’ school quality, birth weight, and parenting practices explained about two-thirds of the black–white test score gap.

    D00d! Every time we control for more proxies for genetic intelligence, the test score gap decreases. \footnote{Hey, remember when Satan wrote that book where he actually controlled for IQ itself and racial gaps pretty much disappeared?} Actually, on second thought, let’s not include that footnote. Grandparents’ education. For pity’s sake.

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  52. Svigor says:

    The New Analysis: It’s Meta!

    Really long road. Super-long. Like “until YT invents genetic engineering for intelligence and prices drop enough to reach the bottom segments of the market” long.

    Protip: there’s nobody along the road handing out Gatorade (or Brawndo), but you can make sandals out of old tires.

    HBD AKA race-realism has predictive power.

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  53. KunioKun says:

    NWA has the most violent lyrics I ever heard. I actively avoid listening to rap, but I always get a feeling of dissonance when I hear any of the newer songs that are supposed to be really bad and find that they are much more tame than what I heard all the time in the early 90s. Of course being the late 80s and early 90s perhaps they were produced with the expectation that people wouldn’t take them completely seriously the way you were not supposed to take Rambo or Commando or any of those action movies seriously.

    However, I could be wrong about the lyrics. I do not hear that much rap so maybe there are horrible vicious lyrics out there, but I never hear them blasting from people’s cars. The lyrics I hear are bad, but not NWA bad.

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  54. Forbes says:

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap …

    Observably, they impute a cause and effect that is inverted. The ‘gap’ in academic achievement is determined by students’ test scores. The students’ socioeconomic status is a function of their parent’s socioeconomic status. Their parent’s socioeconomic status is a function of their parent’s academic achievement.

    In other words, poverty doesn’t cause poor academic achievement–poverty is what results from poor academic achievement. Evidence that life isn’t fair. Shocking, I know.

    There’s a study bouncing around that shows that whites with lower socioeconomic status score higher than blacks with higher socioeconomic status. I think this article addresses it: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/education/09gap.html

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  55. Forbes says:
    @Chris Marsk
    Bruce Caplan and Charles Murray are saying that too many people are going to college, but the Chronicle of Higher Education says that too few are, and it's making them sick.

    https://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Lack-of-a-College-Degree/242524

    The Lack of a College Degree Is a Public-Health Crisis. Here’s What Higher Ed Can Do About It.

    People who don’t go to college are getting sicker and dying younger. That’s the reality playing out in a region of southeastern Missouri known as the Bootheel, one of many poverty-stricken rural areas across the country where few residents have four-year degrees.

    Research has shown that education makes a difference in terms of health outcomes: Get a college degree, and you’re more likely to lead a healthier and more prosperous life. Go without, and, for a number of reasons, you’re more likely to face a range of health problems
     
    I think there's causation confusion here. People who have high IQs go to college and also take care of themselves, or might even have more congenital health risks. The IQ is the cause of both outcomes. Just sending someone to college won't necessarily make him healthier (or smarter).

    Consider the difference in remaining life expectancy at age 25 between those with less than a high-school degree and those with a college degree or more. For white women, the college graduate can expect to live roughly nine years longer than the high-school dropout. But for black women, this college-degree advantage is reduced to roughly five years.
     
    Why might this be? Presumably the black college women are at the bottom of their college classes and have lower IQs than the white women. So there is a greater span there, and health outcomes would be better for the white women. But it also might be the case that white high school dropouts have lower IQs than black dropouts, given the pressure schools are put under to keep blacks in school and graduating. So the overall IQ span between a white dropout and a white college graduate will be greater than the span for correspoding black students. A delta of nine vs. five years seems about right.

    Ed schools and Ed journals (much less teachers) not exactly known for rational, logical, mathematical rigor.

    The premise that college determines health outcomes, is just such an example.

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  56. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    It’s kind of embarrassing to discuss rap on a Steve Sailer thread, but one potential drawback I see to individuals being immersed in rap is that you are dealing with a genre where words generally come at you in great profusion and often at a fairly rapid clip. That tends to turn off analysis. Song doesn’t exactly promote analysis, but it doesn’t typically overload it with verbiage and shut it down in quite the same way.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    True but not causative. Rap fans are already into "state" (existing outside of time, thinking with your stomach, being in the moment) rather than analysis. Rap probably does not noticeably damage analytical thinking in a person who is already into it and then gets into rap.
    The really useful thing in what you observe is the deep burial of presuppositions in media products. When you get a polished mainstream studio media product, an Eminem song, a Stephen King novel, etc, the most outlandish ideas can be made reasonable or put beyond question by being placed quietly in the background. This is what Guillermo del Gordo tried to do recently with the Chez Haine scene in Hot Wet Black Bodies: Diving In. They've done this for years and gotten away with it because they used to have a certain amount of subtlety and connection to reality. Lately the wheels have come off the wagon.
    , @ScarletNumber
    Richard Cheese performs many of these songs in lounge style.
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  57. @Chris Marsk
    Bruce Caplan and Charles Murray are saying that too many people are going to college, but the Chronicle of Higher Education says that too few are, and it's making them sick.

    https://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Lack-of-a-College-Degree/242524

    The Lack of a College Degree Is a Public-Health Crisis. Here’s What Higher Ed Can Do About It.

    People who don’t go to college are getting sicker and dying younger. That’s the reality playing out in a region of southeastern Missouri known as the Bootheel, one of many poverty-stricken rural areas across the country where few residents have four-year degrees.

    Research has shown that education makes a difference in terms of health outcomes: Get a college degree, and you’re more likely to lead a healthier and more prosperous life. Go without, and, for a number of reasons, you’re more likely to face a range of health problems
     
    I think there's causation confusion here. People who have high IQs go to college and also take care of themselves, or might even have more congenital health risks. The IQ is the cause of both outcomes. Just sending someone to college won't necessarily make him healthier (or smarter).

    Consider the difference in remaining life expectancy at age 25 between those with less than a high-school degree and those with a college degree or more. For white women, the college graduate can expect to live roughly nine years longer than the high-school dropout. But for black women, this college-degree advantage is reduced to roughly five years.
     
    Why might this be? Presumably the black college women are at the bottom of their college classes and have lower IQs than the white women. So there is a greater span there, and health outcomes would be better for the white women. But it also might be the case that white high school dropouts have lower IQs than black dropouts, given the pressure schools are put under to keep blacks in school and graduating. So the overall IQ span between a white dropout and a white college graduate will be greater than the span for correspoding black students. A delta of nine vs. five years seems about right.

    Black women are more likely to attend less rigorous colleges, such as for-profits and HBCUs, than white women. If the US were like Finland and only had rigorous universities (not to be confused with polytechnics), then the life-expectancy gap would be smaller for college graduates.

    Loaded with student loan debt, many black women with college degrees don’t lead significantly different lives than high school dropouts. They live in the same neighborhoods, attend the same churches and nightclubs, and sometimes date similar levels of men.

    The New York Times did a story on married college-educated black professionals with poor credit who lived in crime-ridden black neighborhoods in Milwaukee.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/milwaukee-segregation-wealthy-black-families.html

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    • Replies: @E. Rekshun

    Black women are more likely to attend less rigorous colleges, such as for-profits and HBCUs, than white women...

    Loaded with student loan debt, many black women with college degrees don’t lead significantly different lives than high school dropouts. They live in the same neighborhoods, attend the same churches and nightclubs, and sometimes date similar levels of men.
     
    My employer recently promoted a 30 y/o black female to an unnecessary, fluff, well-paid coordinator position. She's actually pleasant and reasonably competent. She's a graduate of a low-level HBCU and recently received her MBA from one of the over-priced on-line diploma mills. The other day she and I got on the subject of student loans. She told me she owes $60K in student loans, but payments are in deferment. She nearly passed out when I told her interest was still accruing. Oh, and her household is made up of her, her unemployed husband (black), his three pre-teen kids, and the three young kids they've had together including a one y/o. But she should be collecting a nice EITC-funded tax return any day now.
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  58. @anon
    What are "observable factors"?
    What's the difference between "schooling characteristics" and "school-level factors"?

    Maybe someone can translate this into something a layperson can understand.

    IQ (via testing) is an observable factor.

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  59. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @dearieme
    "The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased": what is an absolute relationship? Whatever that might be, how can it decrease?

    My mother tongue is English. That seems to put me at a disadvantage here.

    P.S. I hate it when people use "explain" in the statistical sense in any context where it might be mistaken for "explain" in the everyday sense. Indeed, I wish a grand conference of statisticians would just change that item in their terminology.

    “The absolute relationship between black status and achievement decreased”

    Meaning— what exactly? This needs elaboration.

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  60. @AnotherDad

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap ...
     
    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don't actually mean what some people think they mean--"caused by poverty" or "lower income" or "family structure"--with the implication that if we just "fix" those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this "socioeconomic status" is almost certainly largely--though not completely--the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it's actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that's not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets--who are vastly superior to other blacks--is quite striking.

    But that is the perception that they want to create in the literature. Perhaps in order to have more money thrown at the perceived problems, (with the experts in charge of distributing the money, naturally) and over time, the gap will indeed be solved and fixed.

    That’s certainly the public perception that’s been created since the ’60′s. With more tax money, eventually the gap will be closed. More social programs, more money.

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  61. jb says:
    @Erik Sieven
    basically they didn't control for IQ in their regression.

    basically they didn’t control for IQ in their regression.

    Aren’t the test scores themselves a pretty good proxy for IQ? I don’t think you want to control for the thing you are trying to explain!

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  62. Flip says:

    I’ve wondered whether black intelligence is deteriorating due to the high level of illegitimacy and welfare, such that it is dumber women who are having more children, and choosing high aggression males rather than dutiful provider types to father their children.

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    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    That might be true -- an important research topic to explore.
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  63. Ben Kurtz says: • Website
    @MSP
    Ben, I think your analysis of SD gap is wrong. The SD for each section is 100. Treating a gap of 150 points for both sections combined as a 1.5SD gap is incorrect. In addition, I wonder if a much smaller proportion of poor white kids take the test (primarily high performers) compared to affluent AA kids. That might skew the results as well.

    You are right about the section vs. composite standard deviation point. I had read up on SAT norming so long ago I forgot to check the specific reference point for the 100 point SD rule of thumb.

    I’ve double checked and the consensus on the internet is that the standard deviation for the composite SAT score tends to be in the 180s or 190s. It’s not quite the sum of the standard deviations of the two sections, given that performance tends to correlate rather strongly between the two sections — pesky old “g” strikes again!

    I’ve made a correction to my original blog post.

    As far as selection biases go — you are right. They must exist. I acknowledge as much in my blog post. Yet the gap is so consistent and persistent up and down the income scale that they can’t really be so overwhelmingly confounding, in the end.

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  64. @Peter Johnson
    Well actually, he is wrong. The word "causation" does not appear in the paper; nor does the word "cause." I did a word search. The paper is quite carefully done in terms of statistical methodology and makes no statement like that -- see the paper:

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf

    It even mentions (very briefly) the shocking thought that there might be a genetic explanation for the gap (page 4).

    What then do they mean when they write that status “explained” more than half the gap?

    I am open to the possibility that “explain” can mean something different in statistical analysis, but someone would have to “explain” it to me.

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    • Replies: @Jack D
    Just that - in statistic "explains" means "accounts for X% of the variation". It doesn't say which way the arrow of causation is pointing, it's just a measure of correlation. It could be that A causes B or B causes A or factor C accounts for both A and B. Now sometimes the arrow of causation is obvious - if I say to you that parental height explains 50% of the height of their children then obviously the children are not retroactively causing their parents to be short . But, it doesn't tell you, for example whether there is some 3rd factor (e.g. race or genetics) that is causing BOTH the parents and the kids to be short or maybe it's environmental because short parents don't feed their kids enough or whatever. It' just saying that A and B are associated ,which can be very useful anyway because maybe B is very hard or even impossible to measure directly (you can't measure IQ with a tape measure) or hasn't even happened yet (because the kid is only 1 year old), so if the correlations (and you can stack these up - maybe 50% is explained by parental height and then another 30% is explained by the average daily # of grams of protein you consume, etc.) are good enough you can give very accurate predictions of B once someone tells you A (A2, A3), whether or not you know which way the causation is running.
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  65. Jack D says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    What then do they mean when they write that status "explained" more than half the gap?

    I am open to the possibility that "explain" can mean something different in statistical analysis, but someone would have to "explain" it to me.

    Just that – in statistic “explains” means “accounts for X% of the variation”. It doesn’t say which way the arrow of causation is pointing, it’s just a measure of correlation. It could be that A causes B or B causes A or factor C accounts for both A and B. Now sometimes the arrow of causation is obvious – if I say to you that parental height explains 50% of the height of their children then obviously the children are not retroactively causing their parents to be short . But, it doesn’t tell you, for example whether there is some 3rd factor (e.g. race or genetics) that is causing BOTH the parents and the kids to be short or maybe it’s environmental because short parents don’t feed their kids enough or whatever. It’ just saying that A and B are associated ,which can be very useful anyway because maybe B is very hard or even impossible to measure directly (you can’t measure IQ with a tape measure) or hasn’t even happened yet (because the kid is only 1 year old), so if the correlations (and you can stack these up – maybe 50% is explained by parental height and then another 30% is explained by the average daily # of grams of protein you consume, etc.) are good enough you can give very accurate predictions of B once someone tells you A (A2, A3), whether or not you know which way the causation is running.

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    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Thank you! I wondered if it was something like that.
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  66. @stillCARealist
    I've been doing Crossfit for the past 6 months or so and consequently been introduced to the latest in workout music. The coach has his tablet set up to play lists of music specifically aimed at gyms, IOW it's not necessarily his music that he's choosing.

    It's appalling. I mean that in every sense. It's either foul-mouthed punk noise or filthy, angry rap noise. One "song" was nothing but a guy screaming "mother f-ing bitch!" over and over. Somebody asked, "Was that the Dead Kennedys?"

    Then I look at who is working out. Crossfit is expensive and the clientele is mostly status-conscious whites. Could these people, who drive nice cars and have good paying jobs, possibly live like the music they're listening to? No way! If they acted out what came out of that stuff they'd be in prison or dead.

    So if we worry that degraded culture is hurting black kids, it will certainly affect the other races shortly. It's just not possible to keep a clean heart and listen to modern music. Same with movies and TV.

    “One “song” was nothing but a guy screaming “mother f-ing bitch!” over and over.”

    Could this have been the song? This song is on a compilation album I bought about 35 years ago. Dead Kennedys were on the album, but this song is by a band called Bad Posture.

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    • Replies: @stillCARealist
    Yikes! Maybe.

    Who would pay for such trash to be distributed and who would buy it? Oh, you did. Sorry to imply that you had bad taste.
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  67. Jack D says:
    @Ben Kurtz
    More perceptive observers have known for a long time that our country's modest progress in black/white gap closure, which started post WWII, petered out in the 1980s or so, even as attempts to close the gap grew ever more desperate.

    There's a stubborn 1SD gap between black and white academic test performance that exists within each income bracket; in fact, the richest black students barely pull even with the poorest white students on the SAT, and the gap diverges from there.

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract. I frankly recommend that we stop wasting our time and money even trying:

    https://benkurtzblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/the-blackwhite-sat-gap/

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract.

    If you mean by something that you do in the schools (or pre-school or pre-preschool or anything later than 9 months before the kid is born) then of course you are absolutely right.

    BUT, we haven’t even scratch the surface of what is possible with eugenics (because eugenics = Hitler). Even putting aside science fiction possibilities such as gene editing (which are going to be very hard even when the technology improves because IQ doesn’t seem to reside on any single gene – pretty soon they are going to be able to remove single gene mutations like the one that causes cystic fibrosis not only from the affected fertilized egg but permanently from his germ line, but you aren’t going to be able to fix stupid). Just with plain old fashioned breeding techniques (whereby you can transform a wolf into a chihuahua.) For example, among the ultra-Orthodox, in cases where the father and the mother both carry genes for Tay-Sachs disease, parents do not hesitate to have children by artificial insemination (strangely, it raises fewer halachic problems if the donor father is NOT Jewish) and this is fully supported by the parents and their community. If we regard stupidity as such a disease, black females could (and remember most of them are not married to the fathers anyway) be artificially inseminated by high IQ Igbos (so their kids would not look like whitey) and after a few generations of this they would be noticeably smarter.

    OR, since IQ is maybe 50% environmental, we could be much more aggressive about getting kids out of bad environments. Black kids raised by white middle class mothers (like Obama) tend to do better than black kids raised in the ghetto. Instead of white ladies adopting cats (since they don’t seem to want to have their own kids) they could adopt black babies borne by unfit black teen mothers instead, if this was not considered to be cultural genocide.

    BUT, this would require a radical change in thinking from the current discourse where failure of what you are doing just means that you have to try the same thing over again but this time try even harder and spend even more money because the evil spell of white racism has not yet been cast out.

    I have zero realistic hope that our national discourse could be changed so that this is a viable alternative but I am pointing out that this is really a failure of willingness to think outside the box and look at the true causes of the problem and not because there are really no solutions possible at all, ever. Note that I am not talking about radical or cruel solutions such as forced sterilization, but rather just simple measures that (at least in another time and place) would be considered humane and the right thing to do and could be again if we were not nuts. We are like the drunk who keeps looking for his keys under the street lamp even though he didn’t drop them there, because the light is better under the lamp.

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    • Replies: @E. Rekshun
    Instead of white ladies adopting cats (since they don’t seem to want to have their own kids) they could adopt black babies borne by unfit black teen mothers instead...

    But that might lead to a lot of raped and murdered white ladies when the adoptees turn about 13 years old.
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  68. Bill says:
    @utu

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap, and the influence of socioeconomic status on the gap did not change significantly over time.
     
    Several months ago commenter res posted at unz.com SAT data for Blacks and Whites for different family income brackets. Within a very good approximation the difference between Whites and Blacks ∆SAT is constant, i.e., it is independent of the income bracket. ∆SAT is the same whether family income brakes is $160k or $40k. Using this data it can be shown that race alone can explain slightly over 50% of SAT variance.

    Frankly I found it hard to think of other than genetic explanation that affects poor and rich kids in the same way. Why rich Black kids underperform by the same amount as poor kids? What Black kids from $200,000 income bracket are still lacking that they underperform White kids form the same bracket? If it is not genes then what cultural differences account for it that did not preclude their parents to become financially well off.

    Stereotype threat supercharged by epigenetics. Also the black parents don’t play enough Mozart at home.

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  69. Bill says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap...
     
    Isn't this statement a case of actual "scientists" succumbing to the correlation = causation fallacy? Am I wrong?

    For them to say it that way in the results section, "...status explained more than half the gap..." implies to me at least that deep down they assume status causes something, when in this case it simply correlates and might just as well be caused by the same thing that causes the gap: race.

    They would defend themselves against this accusation by saying that the word “explained” has a specific, statistical meaning which only means correlation, not causation.

    Most likely, they are trying to trick their readers. Well, not exactly trick all their readers. Trick any casual policy-wolicy or journalist type reader. However, there is an outside chance that they are so stupid that they make the mistake you are talking about.

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  70. Bill says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    That's a better explanation than vibranium. Surely we all know about the "resource curse" and how it unbalances economies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

    Africa is chock full of rare and valuable minerals, but somehow the wealth all seems to end up in London, Zug, Tel Aviv or, increasingly, China.

    Isn’t the resource curse another one of these reverse causation problems? Why are active mines so often in some strange, distant, uncivilized place? Because all the easily mineable materials close to civilization have already been mined.

    It seems to me that the resource curse may be that crappy, uncivilized places don’t exploit the resources they have, so they are still sitting around. I mean, did Saudi Arabia get crappier after the Europeans discovered oil there? Or was the oil discovered there late because Saudi Arabia was crappy?

    Pennsylvania didn’t fall apart when oil was discovered there. Texas didn’t fall apart when oil was discovered there. Pennsylvania isn’t falling apart now that masses of natural gas have been discovered there.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Beverly Hills High School has a couple of working oil wells out behind the soccer field to help augment its budget.
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  71. Jack D says:
    @MSP
    Ben, I think your analysis of SD gap is wrong. The SD for each section is 100. Treating a gap of 150 points for both sections combined as a 1.5SD gap is incorrect. In addition, I wonder if a much smaller proportion of poor white kids take the test (primarily high performers) compared to affluent AA kids. That might skew the results as well.

    It’s probably not that difficult to find out whether these groups take the SAt at different rates. IIRC, in some states they now give the ACT to everyone so if there was any such effect it would not appear in the ACT scores in that state. I suspect the effect, if it exists at all, is very small.

    There is also a possible effect in the other direction – the richer you are (black or white) the more likely it is that you can afford expensive private SAT tutoring. When I was a poor farm boy I got a Barron’s paperback prep book and that was the extent of my SAT tutoring but some rich families spend thousands on getting their kids tutored. Rich blacks have somewhat different spending priorities than whites but if your kid goes to an expensive private school he will probably pester you to have whatever his friends have.

    Another factor in recent years is that due to a court decision, the College Board is no longer allowed to asterisk scores taken under extended time or untimed conditions (this would be discrimination against the handicapped, which includes the “learning disabled”). So it is a veritable racket nowadays that rich parents get their kids classified (through special testing) as “learning disabled” and so Jon the private school kid has 50% more time to take the SAT than Johnny the public school kid in Iowa (but the colleges don’t know that Jon got extra time). Johnny the public school kid in Iowa is not networked in enough to know that this is even possible and even if he did, if he went to his mom who works for $10.50/hr at Wal-Mart and said, hey mom, I need $4,000 to get tested so that I have more time to take the SAT, you can imagine what the answer would be. But there are rich folks who would (and do) consider that to be a bargain – the price of outright buying your kid’s way into Harvard (like Kushner) is in the millions, but there are people who pay it.

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    • Replies: @Bill
    Yeah, but when Jon shows up at college, he also gets extra time on all his tests there, so it all works out. Or, at least the grades and scores line up as they should. And that's what's really important.
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  72. @E. Rekshun

    Black test score gap closure stagnated in an era when federal education policy sought to close racial achievement gaps.
     
    And that's after 30 years of manipulating blacks' test scores, special classes, dumbing down exams, and removing words like "regatta" from the SAT.

    What’s regatta? Is it a kind of Italian pasta sauce?

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    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    What’s regatta? Is it a kind of Italian pasta sauce?
     
    No, it's a cheese. I think.
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  73. Bill says:
    @Jack D
    It's probably not that difficult to find out whether these groups take the SAt at different rates. IIRC, in some states they now give the ACT to everyone so if there was any such effect it would not appear in the ACT scores in that state. I suspect the effect, if it exists at all, is very small.

    There is also a possible effect in the other direction - the richer you are (black or white) the more likely it is that you can afford expensive private SAT tutoring. When I was a poor farm boy I got a Barron's paperback prep book and that was the extent of my SAT tutoring but some rich families spend thousands on getting their kids tutored. Rich blacks have somewhat different spending priorities than whites but if your kid goes to an expensive private school he will probably pester you to have whatever his friends have.

    Another factor in recent years is that due to a court decision, the College Board is no longer allowed to asterisk scores taken under extended time or untimed conditions (this would be discrimination against the handicapped, which includes the "learning disabled"). So it is a veritable racket nowadays that rich parents get their kids classified (through special testing) as "learning disabled" and so Jon the private school kid has 50% more time to take the SAT than Johnny the public school kid in Iowa (but the colleges don't know that Jon got extra time). Johnny the public school kid in Iowa is not networked in enough to know that this is even possible and even if he did, if he went to his mom who works for $10.50/hr at Wal-Mart and said, hey mom, I need $4,000 to get tested so that I have more time to take the SAT, you can imagine what the answer would be. But there are rich folks who would (and do) consider that to be a bargain - the price of outright buying your kid's way into Harvard (like Kushner) is in the millions, but there are people who pay it.

    Yeah, but when Jon shows up at college, he also gets extra time on all his tests there, so it all works out. Or, at least the grades and scores line up as they should. And that’s what’s really important.

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  74. Olorin says:
    @AnotherDad

    Socioeconomic status explained more than half of the gap ...
     
    You often see sentences like this in sociological literature. But they don't actually mean what some people think they mean--"caused by poverty" or "lower income" or "family structure"--with the implication that if we just "fix" those then the gap shrinks.

    The deal is that this "socioeconomic status" is almost certainly largely--though not completely--the result of underlying genetic factors that correlate with race and are also responsible for the academic gap. In fact, it's actually surprising how much of a racial gap is left even after accounting for socioeconomic factors. One would think that underlying attributes would show up by different white and black socioeconomic profiles, but within those similar socioeconomic brackets the gaps would be small. But that's not remotely the case. The relatively poor academic performance of even the smaller slice of blacks who are in top income brackets--who are vastly superior to other blacks--is quite striking.

    This what I came down here to note. “Socioeconomic status” didn’t “explain” anything. It may correlate with other factors, but only the post hoc fallacy connects the two as the abstract above does (in a causal manner).

    But you have to hand it to them: using the term “explain” is deftly slippery. You don’t have to say “correlated” (which leaves you open to specific methodological challenges–or requires you to understand them in the first place) or “caused” (which leaves you open to someone saying “prove it” or more accurately “frame it in testable falsifiable terms”).

    “Explain” is thus both slippery and the perfect word in this ideological context coming as it does iirc from the Latin, explanare, literally “to flatten [something] out.”

    I’m sure most iSteve readers know this…but the state of “social” “sciences” is abysmal. The good part is that these people, who for over half a century have been charging forward in all directions with vast infusions of taxpayer bling supporting Equality nonsense, are starting to feel the flames licking at the soles of their feet. But they will do and say whatever it takes to protect their academic sinecures.

    FWIW, the hyphenated author, schooled at Reed and UDub Seattle:

    http://nickchk.com/

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_cv.pdf

    http://news.fullerton.edu/2016wi/Nicholas-Huntington-Klein.aspx

    He’s got a forthcoming paper on how chicks do better in organizations where other chicks band together to advance chicks in the organization.

    You can hire him freelance to crunch numbers for you, for he’s “looking for supplementary work in order to save up for some major purchases”:

    https://www.upwork.com/o/profiles/users/_~01c9b64ae0a5715037/

    Including, it appears, a baby:

    http://www.newnownext.com/married-gay-couple-wins-10000-gsn-game-show-idiotest/04/2017/

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  75. @Bill
    Isn't the resource curse another one of these reverse causation problems? Why are active mines so often in some strange, distant, uncivilized place? Because all the easily mineable materials close to civilization have already been mined.

    It seems to me that the resource curse may be that crappy, uncivilized places don't exploit the resources they have, so they are still sitting around. I mean, did Saudi Arabia get crappier after the Europeans discovered oil there? Or was the oil discovered there late because Saudi Arabia was crappy?

    Pennsylvania didn't fall apart when oil was discovered there. Texas didn't fall apart when oil was discovered there. Pennsylvania isn't falling apart now that masses of natural gas have been discovered there.

    Beverly Hills High School has a couple of working oil wells out behind the soccer field to help augment its budget.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    After some drama, the last high school site well got closed. There are still working wells off property. At one time there was a cancer scare lawsuit but that got tossed. A movie angle figured in briefly via attorney Erin Brokovich.

    http://beverlyhills.org/citygovernment/departmentsanddivisions/publicworks/projects/oilwells/
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  76. @Triumph104
    Black women are more likely to attend less rigorous colleges, such as for-profits and HBCUs, than white women. If the US were like Finland and only had rigorous universities (not to be confused with polytechnics), then the life-expectancy gap would be smaller for college graduates.

    Loaded with student loan debt, many black women with college degrees don't lead significantly different lives than high school dropouts. They live in the same neighborhoods, attend the same churches and nightclubs, and sometimes date similar levels of men.

    The New York Times did a story on married college-educated black professionals with poor credit who lived in crime-ridden black neighborhoods in Milwaukee.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/milwaukee-segregation-wealthy-black-families.html

    Black women are more likely to attend less rigorous colleges, such as for-profits and HBCUs, than white women…

    Loaded with student loan debt, many black women with college degrees don’t lead significantly different lives than high school dropouts. They live in the same neighborhoods, attend the same churches and nightclubs, and sometimes date similar levels of men.

    My employer recently promoted a 30 y/o black female to an unnecessary, fluff, well-paid coordinator position. She’s actually pleasant and reasonably competent. She’s a graduate of a low-level HBCU and recently received her MBA from one of the over-priced on-line diploma mills. The other day she and I got on the subject of student loans. She told me she owes $60K in student loans, but payments are in deferment. She nearly passed out when I told her interest was still accruing. Oh, and her household is made up of her, her unemployed husband (black), his three pre-teen kids, and the three young kids they’ve had together including a one y/o. But she should be collecting a nice EITC-funded tax return any day now.

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  77. @Jack D

    This is clearly beyond our poor power to add or detract.
     
    If you mean by something that you do in the schools (or pre-school or pre-preschool or anything later than 9 months before the kid is born) then of course you are absolutely right.


    BUT, we haven't even scratch the surface of what is possible with eugenics (because eugenics = Hitler). Even putting aside science fiction possibilities such as gene editing (which are going to be very hard even when the technology improves because IQ doesn't seem to reside on any single gene - pretty soon they are going to be able to remove single gene mutations like the one that causes cystic fibrosis not only from the affected fertilized egg but permanently from his germ line, but you aren't going to be able to fix stupid). Just with plain old fashioned breeding techniques (whereby you can transform a wolf into a chihuahua.) For example, among the ultra-Orthodox, in cases where the father and the mother both carry genes for Tay-Sachs disease, parents do not hesitate to have children by artificial insemination (strangely, it raises fewer halachic problems if the donor father is NOT Jewish) and this is fully supported by the parents and their community. If we regard stupidity as such a disease, black females could (and remember most of them are not married to the fathers anyway) be artificially inseminated by high IQ Igbos (so their kids would not look like whitey) and after a few generations of this they would be noticeably smarter.

    OR, since IQ is maybe 50% environmental, we could be much more aggressive about getting kids out of bad environments. Black kids raised by white middle class mothers (like Obama) tend to do better than black kids raised in the ghetto. Instead of white ladies adopting cats (since they don't seem to want to have their own kids) they could adopt black babies borne by unfit black teen mothers instead, if this was not considered to be cultural genocide.

    BUT, this would require a radical change in thinking from the current discourse where failure of what you are doing just means that you have to try the same thing over again but this time try even harder and spend even more money because the evil spell of white racism has not yet been cast out.

    I have zero realistic hope that our national discourse could be changed so that this is a viable alternative but I am pointing out that this is really a failure of willingness to think outside the box and look at the true causes of the problem and not because there are really no solutions possible at all, ever. Note that I am not talking about radical or cruel solutions such as forced sterilization, but rather just simple measures that (at least in another time and place) would be considered humane and the right thing to do and could be again if we were not nuts. We are like the drunk who keeps looking for his keys under the street lamp even though he didn't drop them there, because the light is better under the lamp.

    Instead of white ladies adopting cats (since they don’t seem to want to have their own kids) they could adopt black babies borne by unfit black teen mothers instead…

    But that might lead to a lot of raped and murdered white ladies when the adoptees turn about 13 years old.

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  78. @Jack D
    Just that - in statistic "explains" means "accounts for X% of the variation". It doesn't say which way the arrow of causation is pointing, it's just a measure of correlation. It could be that A causes B or B causes A or factor C accounts for both A and B. Now sometimes the arrow of causation is obvious - if I say to you that parental height explains 50% of the height of their children then obviously the children are not retroactively causing their parents to be short . But, it doesn't tell you, for example whether there is some 3rd factor (e.g. race or genetics) that is causing BOTH the parents and the kids to be short or maybe it's environmental because short parents don't feed their kids enough or whatever. It' just saying that A and B are associated ,which can be very useful anyway because maybe B is very hard or even impossible to measure directly (you can't measure IQ with a tape measure) or hasn't even happened yet (because the kid is only 1 year old), so if the correlations (and you can stack these up - maybe 50% is explained by parental height and then another 30% is explained by the average daily # of grams of protein you consume, etc.) are good enough you can give very accurate predictions of B once someone tells you A (A2, A3), whether or not you know which way the causation is running.

    Thank you! I wondered if it was something like that.

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  79. @fredyetagain aka superhonky
    "One “song” was nothing but a guy screaming “mother f-ing bitch!” over and over."

    Could this have been the song? This song is on a compilation album I bought about 35 years ago. Dead Kennedys were on the album, but this song is by a band called Bad Posture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-SA-uB5yus

    Yikes! Maybe.

    Who would pay for such trash to be distributed and who would buy it? Oh, you did. Sorry to imply that you had bad taste.

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  80. @Hippopotamusdrome
    What's regatta? Is it a kind of Italian pasta sauce?

    What’s regatta? Is it a kind of Italian pasta sauce?

    No, it’s a cheese. I think.

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  81. @Flip
    I've wondered whether black intelligence is deteriorating due to the high level of illegitimacy and welfare, such that it is dumber women who are having more children, and choosing high aggression males rather than dutiful provider types to father their children.

    That might be true — an important research topic to explore.

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  82. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Anonymous
    It's kind of embarrassing to discuss rap on a Steve Sailer thread, but one potential drawback I see to individuals being immersed in rap is that you are dealing with a genre where words generally come at you in great profusion and often at a fairly rapid clip. That tends to turn off analysis. Song doesn't exactly promote analysis, but it doesn't typically overload it with verbiage and shut it down in quite the same way.

    True but not causative. Rap fans are already into “state” (existing outside of time, thinking with your stomach, being in the moment) rather than analysis. Rap probably does not noticeably damage analytical thinking in a person who is already into it and then gets into rap.
    The really useful thing in what you observe is the deep burial of presuppositions in media products. When you get a polished mainstream studio media product, an Eminem song, a Stephen King novel, etc, the most outlandish ideas can be made reasonable or put beyond question by being placed quietly in the background. This is what Guillermo del Gordo tried to do recently with the Chez Haine scene in Hot Wet Black Bodies: Diving In. They’ve done this for years and gotten away with it because they used to have a certain amount of subtlety and connection to reality. Lately the wheels have come off the wagon.

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  83. Ivy says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Beverly Hills High School has a couple of working oil wells out behind the soccer field to help augment its budget.

    After some drama, the last high school site well got closed. There are still working wells off property. At one time there was a cancer scare lawsuit but that got tossed. A movie angle figured in briefly via attorney Erin Brokovich.

    http://beverlyhills.org/citygovernment/departmentsanddivisions/publicworks/projects/oilwells/

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  84. Jack D says:
    @Chris Marsk
    Bruce Caplan and Charles Murray are saying that too many people are going to college, but the Chronicle of Higher Education says that too few are, and it's making them sick.

    https://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Lack-of-a-College-Degree/242524

    The Lack of a College Degree Is a Public-Health Crisis. Here’s What Higher Ed Can Do About It.

    People who don’t go to college are getting sicker and dying younger. That’s the reality playing out in a region of southeastern Missouri known as the Bootheel, one of many poverty-stricken rural areas across the country where few residents have four-year degrees.

    Research has shown that education makes a difference in terms of health outcomes: Get a college degree, and you’re more likely to lead a healthier and more prosperous life. Go without, and, for a number of reasons, you’re more likely to face a range of health problems
     
    I think there's causation confusion here. People who have high IQs go to college and also take care of themselves, or might even have more congenital health risks. The IQ is the cause of both outcomes. Just sending someone to college won't necessarily make him healthier (or smarter).

    Consider the difference in remaining life expectancy at age 25 between those with less than a high-school degree and those with a college degree or more. For white women, the college graduate can expect to live roughly nine years longer than the high-school dropout. But for black women, this college-degree advantage is reduced to roughly five years.
     
    Why might this be? Presumably the black college women are at the bottom of their college classes and have lower IQs than the white women. So there is a greater span there, and health outcomes would be better for the white women. But it also might be the case that white high school dropouts have lower IQs than black dropouts, given the pressure schools are put under to keep blacks in school and graduating. So the overall IQ span between a white dropout and a white college graduate will be greater than the span for correspoding black students. A delta of nine vs. five years seems about right.

    They should use the solution that the Wizard of Oz used on the Scarecrow. Give everyone a college degree and their life expectancy will instantly go up by 9 years! This simple measure, requiring only an inkjet printer and some vellum paper, will revolutionize public health! I know a woman of color who is fully qualified to bid for this contract and will do it for $50 million – she even has an inkjet printer already and will buy some ink cartridges and paper as soon as she gets some advance money on her contract. We should have done this years ago and would have except for those dirty rat Republicans.

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  85. @Anonymous
    It's kind of embarrassing to discuss rap on a Steve Sailer thread, but one potential drawback I see to individuals being immersed in rap is that you are dealing with a genre where words generally come at you in great profusion and often at a fairly rapid clip. That tends to turn off analysis. Song doesn't exactly promote analysis, but it doesn't typically overload it with verbiage and shut it down in quite the same way.

    Richard Cheese performs many of these songs in lounge style.

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  86. Mr. XYZ says:

    @George Taylor: Do Wakanda natives outscore Ashkenazi Jews, though? Indeed, that is the million dollar question.

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  87. I’ve been reading through the paper which is the subject of this post, and a couple of numbers jumped out at me: Pre-civil rights movement in 1960 only 21.7 percent of blacks graduated from high school. By 2012 it was up to 85.7 percent.

    Assuming a mean IQ of 85 and a standard deviation of 12, and assuming that the top 85.7 percent in IQ of black students graduated, this means that in 2012 black students with an IQ of 72.2 graduated from high school. In 1960 the graduates’ IQ was 92.3 or above.

    There are a lot of assumptions here, but it seems to me that a reasonable minimum IQ for a high school diploma would be 85 to 90, so the 1960 graduation rates were closer to ideal than the current rates. What does a high school diploma mean if you can have an IQ of 73 and get one?

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    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    Yes you are right that a high school diploma means much less in 2018 than it did in 1960, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Keeping IQ 73 students in a school-like environment might be to their benefit and society's, particularly if they do not interfere with the learning experience of the IQ 90+ students. So I think that you are correct, but do not think that it necessarily follows that this is a worse policy - allowing virtually everyone to stay in school until 18 and then claim some kind of diploma. The problems come when society cannot analyze the policy rationally because they are not allowed to talk about obvious facts like IQ differences.
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  88. @Chris Marsk
    I've been reading through the paper which is the subject of this post, and a couple of numbers jumped out at me: Pre-civil rights movement in 1960 only 21.7 percent of blacks graduated from high school. By 2012 it was up to 85.7 percent.

    Assuming a mean IQ of 85 and a standard deviation of 12, and assuming that the top 85.7 percent in IQ of black students graduated, this means that in 2012 black students with an IQ of 72.2 graduated from high school. In 1960 the graduates' IQ was 92.3 or above.

    There are a lot of assumptions here, but it seems to me that a reasonable minimum IQ for a high school diploma would be 85 to 90, so the 1960 graduation rates were closer to ideal than the current rates. What does a high school diploma mean if you can have an IQ of 73 and get one?

    Yes you are right that a high school diploma means much less in 2018 than it did in 1960, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Keeping IQ 73 students in a school-like environment might be to their benefit and society’s, particularly if they do not interfere with the learning experience of the IQ 90+ students. So I think that you are correct, but do not think that it necessarily follows that this is a worse policy – allowing virtually everyone to stay in school until 18 and then claim some kind of diploma. The problems come when society cannot analyze the policy rationally because they are not allowed to talk about obvious facts like IQ differences.

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    • Replies: @Romanian
    They are warehousing people. University is the same. Just burning time and keeping people out of trouble (theoretically, since trouble always seems to find some people).
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  89. Romanian says: • Website
    @Peter Johnson
    Yes you are right that a high school diploma means much less in 2018 than it did in 1960, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Keeping IQ 73 students in a school-like environment might be to their benefit and society's, particularly if they do not interfere with the learning experience of the IQ 90+ students. So I think that you are correct, but do not think that it necessarily follows that this is a worse policy - allowing virtually everyone to stay in school until 18 and then claim some kind of diploma. The problems come when society cannot analyze the policy rationally because they are not allowed to talk about obvious facts like IQ differences.

    They are warehousing people. University is the same. Just burning time and keeping people out of trouble (theoretically, since trouble always seems to find some people).

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  90. @Peter Johnson
    Well actually, he is wrong. The word "causation" does not appear in the paper; nor does the word "cause." I did a word search. The paper is quite carefully done in terms of statistical methodology and makes no statement like that -- see the paper:

    http://nickchk.com/Huntington-Klein_Ackert_Full_Long_Road_to_Equality.pdf

    It even mentions (very briefly) the shocking thought that there might be a genetic explanation for the gap (page 4).

    Thanks for the info.

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