Nevada is often cited as a state where Republicans doomed themselves by their failure to fully embrace amnesty for Hispanic undocumented workers. After all, George W. Bush won Nevada 51-48 in 2004, but Mitt Romney lost it 46-52 in 2012. This proves that the Rising Tide of Hispanics votes solely on Immigration Reform and punishes Republicans for their racism, which can only be redeemed by giving undocumented workers immigration reform. (This is more or less the official position of both parties’ leaderships.)
A revisionist history of Nevada’s political evolution in the 21st Century, in contrast, would cite the impact of Bush’s Housing Bubble of 2003-2006 and the Housing Bust of 2008, in which Nevada played a key role as one of the four Sand States of the Big Short. Thus John McCain lost Nevada in 2008 43-55 despite having been co-sponsor with Ted Kennedy of the 2006 amnesty bill. Why? Because Bush inflating the housing market helped him at the polls in 2004 but backfired terribly on his party in 2008 (and 2012).
Las Vegas’s default crisis of 2008 continues to reverberate in 2016 in odd ways. For example, from Yahoo News:
By Luciana Lopez
February 14, 2016
(Reuters) – Democratic presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are flooding Nevada with volunteers ahead of this week’s key nominating contest but they face a problem – the addresses, phone numbers and other personal data they need to reach many voters are out of date.
Nevada, which is more than a quarter Latino, was one of the states worst affected by the 2008 financial meltdown, with hundreds of thousands of families unable to pay their mortgages and forced to move in a crisis that by some estimates hit minorities twice as hard as whites.
With the foreclosed homes often switching hands multiple times – from homeowner to bank to investor and back to another homeowner in just a few years – keeping up with voters who at some point lived in those homes is difficult.
The Nevada Democratic caucus on Feb. 20 has emerged as an unusually important test of Sanders’ and Clinton’s political strength. Clinton is under pressure to keep her wide lead among Latinos, while Sanders must erode it to show he has a path to the nomination that does not rely mainly on the young white voters who make up the core of his support base.
“This ongoing (foreclosure) crisis makes reaching potential voters more difficult,” Sanders’ campaign said in a statement emailed to Reuters. The Clinton campaign said the voter lists supplied by the Democratic Party needed “significantly” more work to update, forcing them to spend valuable canvassing time building up their own private data.
Las Vegas, Nevada’s biggest city, has seen some of the country’s highest foreclosure rates since 2008, hitting No. 1 among more than 200 U.S. metro areas from 2009 to 2011, according to RealtyTrac, a provider of real estate data and analytics. Even now, the city and its surrounding area rank No. 17.
Data that might have been corrected in the 2012 general election has, in many cases, already fallen out of date again because the Nevada housing market has continued to see wave after wave of foreclosures, the campaigns said. …
Latinos make up almost 32 percent of Las Vegas. …
There hasn’t been enough polling in Nevada recently to show who is ahead among Latinos. But nationally Clinton has the advantage: Among Latinos who describe themselves as Democrats, 54 percent support Clinton and 37 percent back Sanders, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling from Oct. 1 to Feb. 12.
But who can remember back all the way to 2008?