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Narrative Collapse in Today's L.A. Times

The top story in today’s Los Angeles Times:

Screenshot 2017-04-03 16.45.03

But also from today’s Los Angeles Times, a less prominently-displayed article:

Screenshot 2017-04-03 16.43.11

Two articles from today’s Los Angeles Times:

Hit-and-run accidents fell after California gave those here illegally driver’s licenses, study finds

by Benjamin Oreskes

April 3, 2017

A California law giving immigrants here illegally the ability to get driver’s licenses appears to have helped decrease hit-and-run accidents, according to a Stanford University study released Monday.

The controversial law, part of a larger effort by state officials to provide rights and services to California residents in the country illegally, resulted in more than 850,000 people getting driver’s licenses since the law took effect in 2015.

Supporters of the measure argued that it would make California roads safer because those here illegally would be forced to take driver’s tests and would be less likely to flee from accidents out of fear of being arrested or deported.

The Stanford study estimated that the rate of hit-and-run accidents decreased at least 7% in 2015 compared with 2014. Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded that there were 4,000 fewer hit-and-runs that year because of the new law. …

“It’s shocking to see how you have these controversial debates and everyone is flying blind in terms of evidence,” Hainmueller said. “People in favor of it love it, and people against immigration hate it.”

Researchers posited that this new law would give people who may have been driving without a license a new confidence about being on the roads. Before, if they had been in a fender-bender, they may have been worried about waiting for authorities to arrive. These results suggest “that, if anything, providing unauthorized immigrants access to driver’s licenses reduced their incentives to flee the scene of an accident,” the authors of the study write.

The study finds that this reduction in hit-and-runs had a marked economic benefit. “Because AB60 led to an annual decline in hit and run accidents by about 4,000, not-at-fault drivers avoided out of pocket expenses for car repairs (physical damage) of about $3.5 million,” according to the researchers.

Okay … But also in today’s Los Angeles Times:

The number of pedestrians, cyclists and drivers killed in L.A. traffic rose sharply in 2016

Laura J. Nelson and Dakota Smith, April 3, 2017

Traffic deaths in Los Angeles rose sharply despite a high-profile campaign by Mayor Eric Garcetti and other city leaders to eliminate fatal traffic crashes.

In 2016, the first full year that Garcetti’s Vision Zero policy was in effect in L.A., 260 people were killed in traffic crashes on city streets, an increase of almost 43% over the previous year.

My (not always perfect algebra) suggests Los Angeles city traffic fatalities rose from 178 in 2015 to 260 in 2016, or 78 incremental dead people in one city.

Rising traffic deaths appear to be more than a one-year aberration: So far in 2017, crash fatalities are 22% higher than in the same period last year.

Los Angeles’ increase in traffic deaths outpaces national trends. In 2016, 40,200 people died in crashes involving cars, a 6% increase over the previous year, according to the National Safety Council.

… Seleta Reynolds, the L.A. Transportation Department’s general manager, cited an increase in driving as one reason for the rising number of fatalities. Car sales and car registrations have risen in Southern California, driven by a strong economy and low gas prices.

Drivers are also facing more distractions in their cars, and in some some neighborhoods, more people are choosing to walk or bike, Reynolds said.

In addition, the Los Angeles Police Department is issuing dramatically fewer speeding tickets today, which could be contributing to the jump in fatal crashes.

The post-Ferguson spike in traffic deaths is starting to look much like the post-Ferguson spike in homicide deaths: a Ferguson Effect. Cops may be saying, “We could enforce the law or we could go get a donut. Obama, Soros, and Hillary sure make me feel like I could use a good donut about now.”

Reynolds said she is concerned that more crashes involving pedestrians are resulting in deaths. Through mid-March, pedestrian collisions were up 3% compared with 2015, but fatalities involving pedestrians surged 58% over the same period, according to LAPD data.

Reynolds attributes the higher number of pedestrian deaths to vehicle speeds. When struck by a car moving at 20 mph, a pedestrian has a 10% chance of dying, but the risk of death increases to 80% if the vehicle is moving at 40 mph, according to a federal study of crash data.

Pedestrians make up nearly half of the fatalities in traffic collisions, although they are involved in only 14% of total crashes, according to a city analysis of data from 2009 to 2013.

The city saw about 55,350 traffic collisions in 2016, which represents a 7% increase over 2015 and a 20% uptick from 2014. Those crashes include collisions between drivers, between drivers and pedestrians or bicyclists, and hit-and-run and DUI-related crashes. …

Okay, here’s one long-term factor:

The LAPD’s speeding enforcement is challenged by a state law that prevents officers from using radar to catch speeders unless a new traffic study has been performed in that area.

The number of speeding tickets issued annually has dropped from 100,000 in 2010 to about 17,000 in 2015, according to police data.

I drove a lot on LA’s freeways in 2010, and people were driving like bats out of hell back then even with 100,000 speeding tickets. The standard velocity in 2010 on the relatively uncrowded 134 freeway through Burbank north of Griffith Park was 80 mph.

Traffic deaths are something that ought to be declining steadily, so when they go up, attention ought to be paid. It took us 15 years to notice the White Death of tens of thousands of incremental white people dying in what ought to be the prime of life, so I’m going to continue to harp on recent bad trends like more homicide and traffic deaths.

I want to thank commenter J at Andrew Gelman’s statistics site for pointing out the contrast between the two LAT articles.

 
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  1. Fascinating

    The one time I sat in a California driver’s car I noticed how pedal to the metal they were

    I can drive 80 in the snow but I don’t drive 80 and tailgate

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  2. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Well, like most every other iStevey issue of concern, I think it’s safe to say that The WASP Elite is behind this trend in the wrong direction.

    And, as usual, not only are they behind the disturbing trend, but they are controlling the reporting through their historical domination of the LA Times.

    The control freak WASP elite is so freaky that way.

    Read More
    • LOL: AndrewR
    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    The Chandlers owned the Times for over a century, but it wasn't until 1960, when Otis Chandler took the reins from his father, that its national reputation began to rise. By 1980, when Otis retired, his paper was regarded as the third-best paper in America, after the New York Times and the Washington Post. (Some observers ranked it ahead of its East Coast rivals.)

    One day, late in Otis' tenure, an assistant interrupted a routine business meeting to hand him an urgent note. He immediately excused himself and strode out of the room. In his haste, he carelessly dropped the note on the floor. An executive, fearing that the note brought tidings of some grave crisis, got up and walked over to pick it up.

    It read, simply, "Surf's up."

    (Otis was an avid surfer.)
  3. Supporters of the measure argued that it would make California roads safer because those here illegally would be forced to take driver’s tests and would be less likely to flee from accidents out of fear of being arrested or deported.

    That only helps with the “run” part of “hit and run”, not the “hit” part. Okay, so – maybe (it could be the statistics are just being cooked by the police) – hit-and-run accidents are down, because now illegals are more likely to hit-and-stay, rather than hit-and-run. But maybe that’s only for non-injury accidents. Are serious-to-fatal hit-and-run accidents down? That would be the important metric in this case.

    Read More
    • Replies: @International Jew
    I doubt they stay much even now. What makes the difference is that now there are just a lot more of them driving.
  4. Hit an run? How about hit and no resources to pay? The min limits for California auto insurance are $15,000. My guess is new immigrants are more likely to choose min limits and have no other assets of value in the US.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    I'm calling BS on this saving money part. There's no way illegal drivers are buying insurance on any large scale. They can't afford it. Regular American citizens with no money can't afford it either. Or they don't bother because their driving records are terrible.

    Also, what is this "estimation" and "complex formula" stuff? Sounds like PFA to me. That stands for Plucked From Air.

    I think they had their conclusion in hand and then moved the numbers around to justify it.
  5. The Ferguson Effect usually shows up in the homicide rate, particularly in the black community (although if a different group was in uproar over the police, we might expect something analogous). Are we seeing that in Los Angeles? And was there some high profile incident there analogous to Ferguson, Baltimore, Chicago or Milwaukee?

    Read More
  6. The state anti speed trap law is a good one, and has been in effect for decades. It simply requires a safety survay that justifies a speed limit every 10 years. So no making a wide four lane road 25mph and then writing tickets for people who go 35.

    Pedestrian deaths are not happening on 80mph freeways. I think smart phones are the biggest culprit. Even with hands free set ups, drivers are very distracted.

    The best way to reduce traffic deaths in aggressive enforcement of insurance and registration laws to take uninsured illegals off the road.

    The minimum insurance in California should also be increased. It has been $30,000 for a long time. That does not cover enough. Specifically:

    $15,000 for injury/death to one person.
    $30,000 for injury/death to more than one person.
    $5,000 for damage to property.

    Read More
  7. That algebra of yours looks like arithmetic.

    And perhaps you’d consider closing the bracket one word earlier?

    Apologies from Captain Pedantic.

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  8. “Obama, Soros, and Hillary sure make me feel like I could use a good donut about now.” That would make a good caption for a line-drawn B&W one-frame cartoon, with two cops on patrol (viewpoint of reader from back seat of police car) and a savage street battle of various diversities seen over the cops’ shoulders through the windshield, about 1/2 block farther down the street.

    Perhaps it would even be in the New Yorker (not).

    Read More
  9. This is ridiculous.
    A hit-and-run is ENTIRELY DIFFERENT from a road death! Come on you fake news peddler, grow a spine, have some integrity. Hack.

    Read More
  10. anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Steve, I love you man, but you gotta stop with the serial responding-to-yourself comment style. 6 out of 11 comments on that thread are by you?!?

    Read More
  11. Based on my own admittedly unscientific observations:

    1. I don’t think the CA DMV denies anyone a license, unless they actually get into an accident during the behind-the-wheel portion of the test. There are too many noisy, unpleasant pressure groups that the DMV and the politicians would just rather not deal with: seniors, immigrants, etc. etc.

    2. As someone involved in sales, a large part of my job is driving. I hate driving in the LA basin, because depending on the part of town you’re in, the drivers are super aggressive, distracted, or both. The San Fernando Valley is especially bad, most particularly the swarthy men with gold chains and shirts unbuttoned to their navels.

    3. It used to be considered common knowledge that women were safer drivers than men, especially young women compared to young men. No more. Young women, thanks to the you-go-girrrlll ethos and a general get-out-of-my-way-I’m-more-important-than-you mindset are some of the worst, most aggressive drivers out there.

    My own kid some years ago complained that her Nissan Sentra was a “clunker” because it wasn’t getting the gas mileage she expected and the brakes were wearing out too fast. I remarked that maybe it had something to do with her hard braking, general lead-footedness, and jackrabbit starts, which of course she denied. Then she asked “what’s a jackrabbit start?”

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  12. The minimum insurance in California should also be increased. It has been $30,000 for a long time. That does not cover enough.

    Correct. Thirty grand is nothing.

    I tripped while out running last month and hit my knee –hard!– on the pavement. Couple of hours later it swelled up quite a bit and I couldn’t walk on it, so I went to the ER. Fifteen minutes worth of x-rays (and three hours for them to get around to reading them). Nothing wrong, they got an ace bandage and wrapped it. The bill? $900!

    My co-pay will be about $100, but the cost that insurance got billed was ridiculous.

    You simply must buy underinsured/uninsured motorist coverage these days. If some guy with only $30k (or no) coverage hits you, you’re gonna be screwed. You probably need ten times that much coverage to be comfortable out there.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    Can you buy UNDERinsured driver insurance? A friend was hit by a dumbass driver (actually she was hit by the car that the dumbass hit) and the total damage was well north of 50k for both cars. The driver at fault had only 5k worth of coverage. How can this be?

    Here's the quote from the DMV:

    The minimum amount of liability insurance you must have on your policy is:
    $15,000 for injury/death to one person.
    $30,000 for injury/death to more than one person.
    $5,000 for damage to property.

    See that? 5k for property damage. That means if no one was hurt but a new car was smashed up, you're just SOL for the cost of your car. That's what happened to my friend. So messed up it's criminal.
  13. I would assume this has something to do with female east Asians. I don’t know how, but I’ll beth there is a correlation there.

    Read More
  14. Now that the illegals are getting licenses in CA I wonder what proportion of accidents are caused by (or involve) illegals and how that compares with their proportion of drivers? Not holding my breath waiting for that data to be available or that analysis done though.

    Read More
  15. @Dr. X

    The minimum insurance in California should also be increased. It has been $30,000 for a long time. That does not cover enough.
     
    Correct. Thirty grand is nothing.

    I tripped while out running last month and hit my knee --hard!-- on the pavement. Couple of hours later it swelled up quite a bit and I couldn't walk on it, so I went to the ER. Fifteen minutes worth of x-rays (and three hours for them to get around to reading them). Nothing wrong, they got an ace bandage and wrapped it. The bill? $900!

    My co-pay will be about $100, but the cost that insurance got billed was ridiculous.

    You simply must buy underinsured/uninsured motorist coverage these days. If some guy with only $30k (or no) coverage hits you, you're gonna be screwed. You probably need ten times that much coverage to be comfortable out there.

    Can you buy UNDERinsured driver insurance? A friend was hit by a dumbass driver (actually she was hit by the car that the dumbass hit) and the total damage was well north of 50k for both cars. The driver at fault had only 5k worth of coverage. How can this be?

    Here’s the quote from the DMV:

    The minimum amount of liability insurance you must have on your policy is:
    $15,000 for injury/death to one person.
    $30,000 for injury/death to more than one person.
    $5,000 for damage to property.

    See that? 5k for property damage. That means if no one was hurt but a new car was smashed up, you’re just SOL for the cost of your car. That’s what happened to my friend. So messed up it’s criminal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Underinsured Motorist or UIM is a fairly standard coverage. You might have it. It's typically sold to middle class and above drivers. People buy UM/UIM to cover both uninsured and underinsured motorists.

    If you have assets, you need decently high liability limits. But that covers people you injure. Uninsurd and Underinsured coverages 'top up' the other guy's policy if he is liable to the purchased limit.

    Auto Insurance is regulated by the states and there are 50 sets of rules.

    The typical middle class person would get 100/300 or 300/300 liability coverage and UM/UIM with the same limits. Or at least that's what would be recommended. The first number is a 'per person' and the second is 'per occurrence'. People with more assets can get a personal umbrella policy that tops up the auto and homeowner limits to $1 millon, +

    , @StAugustine
    That's odd. I would think that carrying a small amount of property damage insurance on your auto policy doesn't relieve you of responsibility in case of an accident - that's just the amount that your car insurance policy will cover for you.

    However, in this case (looking briefly at CA), you'd have to lawyer up (within 30 days it looks like) to submit the uninsured or underinsured motorist claim to the insurance company.

    But if you decide (or the lawyer tells you) that the amount paid via the insurance companies is too small, you can sue in the small claims court...

    But from another legal advice site:

    "Unfortunately, suing an uninsured driver is generally not a good option, from a financial standpoint. Suing an uninsured driver will not usually put much (if any) money in your pocket. This is because most uninsured drivers have little or no money or assets.

    If you win a judgment against a person with little or no money, you are probably not going to get any money from the judgment because the defendant has no money with which to pay you.

    If a defendant does not pay a judgment, you can go back to court to apply for a court order requiring the defendant to pay you. However, courts recognize that a winning plaintiff can’t get blood from a stone, and will not require a legitimately indigent defendant to pay a judgment."
     
    As per the iSteve saying: There's no end to how nice things are nicer than not-so-nice things.
  16. @George
    Hit an run? How about hit and no resources to pay? The min limits for California auto insurance are $15,000. My guess is new immigrants are more likely to choose min limits and have no other assets of value in the US.

    I’m calling BS on this saving money part. There’s no way illegal drivers are buying insurance on any large scale. They can’t afford it. Regular American citizens with no money can’t afford it either. Or they don’t bother because their driving records are terrible.

    Also, what is this “estimation” and “complex formula” stuff? Sounds like PFA to me. That stands for Plucked From Air.

    I think they had their conclusion in hand and then moved the numbers around to justify it.

    Read More
  17. Anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Has there been an uptick in donut sales commiserate with the number of police in the country?

    Read More
  18. I think the donut cliche has to be retired in favor of coffee. In SF, three cop cars roar into a Peet’s near the beach every weekday at 4:45.

    Read More
  19. WOW! 850,000 licenses given to illegal immigrants is absurd, and I am beginning to worry about cops and their health. Too many donuts can’t be good for you. Oh, in other California news, besides last week’s proposal to exclude Cali teachers from paying state income tax, there was a well received proposal introduced to build affordable housing for teachers. And who says campaign donations don’t bring results

    Read More
  20. So you’re more likely to get hit, but the uninsured, judgment-proof border hopper is more likely to stick around after he hits you?

    Read More
  21. On the plus side, Attorney General Sessions could put that DMV database to good use.

    Read More
  22. Weren’t liberals arguing that the crime rates for illegals are relatively low because they want to keep a low profile? According to that logic, their accident rates should go up if you grant them driver’s licences.

    Also why is the US the only western country that gives illegal immigrants drivers licences? If its such a good idea, why is no one following Uncle Sam’s enlightened example?

    Read More
  23. My observation from the years I spent on LA freeways is that congestion limits people’s speed so much of the time that they don’t learn how to limit it themselves. They just go as fast as they can all the time, which is usually 32 mph but that magic moment when the traffic loosens up, it’s like the back straightaway at Talladega.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Brutusale
    All I can say about Cali drivers is that my cousins who grew up in Southern California and now live in the SF area will not drive when they are in MA. They don't feel they're up to the task and enjoy having me, the Road Warrior, chauffeur them.
  24. anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    The Stanford study estimated that the rate of hit-and-run accidents decreased at least 7% in 2015 compared with 2014. Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded that there were 4,000 fewer hit-and-runs that year because of the new law.

    Using a complex formula – yeah, right.

    Something smells wrong about this – i bet they found their policy increased the number of traffic deaths so they concocted the story about hit and runs going down using rigged stats and released it on the same day to hide the increase in traffic accidents.

    (mechanism: just a guess on little information but the cops probably used to stop and harass the kind of people who looked like they wouldn’t have licences and so the people who looked like that drove more carefully and now they don’t bother)

    Car sales and car registrations have risen in Southern California, driven by a strong economy and low gas prices.

    driven by the banks – car loans are the new housing bubble

    Read More
  25. @Anonymous
    Well, like most every other iStevey issue of concern, I think it's safe to say that The WASP Elite is behind this trend in the wrong direction.

    And, as usual, not only are they behind the disturbing trend, but they are controlling the reporting through their historical domination of the LA Times.

    The control freak WASP elite is so freaky that way.

    The Chandlers owned the Times for over a century, but it wasn’t until 1960, when Otis Chandler took the reins from his father, that its national reputation began to rise. By 1980, when Otis retired, his paper was regarded as the third-best paper in America, after the New York Times and the Washington Post. (Some observers ranked it ahead of its East Coast rivals.)

    One day, late in Otis’ tenure, an assistant interrupted a routine business meeting to hand him an urgent note. He immediately excused himself and strode out of the room. In his haste, he carelessly dropped the note on the floor. An executive, fearing that the note brought tidings of some grave crisis, got up and walked over to pick it up.

    It read, simply, “Surf’s up.”

    (Otis was an avid surfer.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    Chandlers found the Tribune pigeons to overpay for the LA Times and assorted assets, then watched as the Internet demolished the old newspaper model. Much capital was wasted through the purchase and subsequent bankruptcy.

    Journalism got downsized all over the place and newspaper readers are worse off. That morning cup of coffee seems more enjoyable with a paper than it does looking at a screen, similar to how a book is more satisfying than an e-book. Maybe I should write "Get off my lawn, just leave the paper on the driveway".
  26. The easiest way of ascertaining the driving capabilities of illegal aliens is looking at where they’re from. Is it bad? Then they’re worse than that, being the bottom of the barrel.

    Interesting question: Is there any place in the world where the poor drive better than the rich?

    I don’t think so. A big part of not crashing is being able to anticipate the future. If they had hardware with that kind of capability, they wouldn’t be poor. As with any pretty complicated task, navigating traffic is an iq test.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "Interesting question: Is there any place in the world where the poor drive better than the rich?"

    L.A.

    The whole city is cursed with awful drivers, but the worst drivers in the city are to be found in the westside areas like Santa Monica, Brentwood, Beverly Hills, and Pacific Palisades. Entitlement, aggression, big SUVs, and hard drugs make for a deadly combination. And the women drive more aggressively than the men.
  27. anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Formerly CARealist
    Can you buy UNDERinsured driver insurance? A friend was hit by a dumbass driver (actually she was hit by the car that the dumbass hit) and the total damage was well north of 50k for both cars. The driver at fault had only 5k worth of coverage. How can this be?

    Here's the quote from the DMV:

    The minimum amount of liability insurance you must have on your policy is:
    $15,000 for injury/death to one person.
    $30,000 for injury/death to more than one person.
    $5,000 for damage to property.

    See that? 5k for property damage. That means if no one was hurt but a new car was smashed up, you're just SOL for the cost of your car. That's what happened to my friend. So messed up it's criminal.

    Underinsured Motorist or UIM is a fairly standard coverage. You might have it. It’s typically sold to middle class and above drivers. People buy UM/UIM to cover both uninsured and underinsured motorists.

    If you have assets, you need decently high liability limits. But that covers people you injure. Uninsurd and Underinsured coverages ‘top up’ the other guy’s policy if he is liable to the purchased limit.

    Auto Insurance is regulated by the states and there are 50 sets of rules.

    The typical middle class person would get 100/300 or 300/300 liability coverage and UM/UIM with the same limits. Or at least that’s what would be recommended. The first number is a ‘per person’ and the second is ‘per occurrence’. People with more assets can get a personal umbrella policy that tops up the auto and homeowner limits to $1 millon, +

    Read More
  28. Narrative Collapse

    There is a web site by that name: Narrative Collapse

    Examples of current stories:

    DC Police confirm that Corrina Mehiel was torturedStill refusing to disclose the perp’s immigration status

    February KillingsWhen it comes to interracial killings, the media, television shows, and Hollywood movies all have a certain narrative they push. But does it reflect reality?…So far we have found 28 black on white killings that occurred in February of 2017. We have not found any white on black killings yet.

    If media outlets weren’t abrogating their responsibility to do honest, unbiased reporting by deliberately and dishonestly pushing a false ‘narrative’, there would be nothing to ‘collapse’.

    Read More
  29. A California law giving immigrants here illegally the ability to get driver’s licenses

    The word illegally should appear right after law.

    Read More
  30. When struck by a car moving at 20 mph, a pedestrian has a 10% chance of dying

    Wow, not too bad. I’d have guessed 20% is your chance of dying if you’re struck by a 300 lb football player running at his top speed.

    Read More
  31. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Steve, still think that L.A. drivers are so great? You were called out on your claims before, and now your narrative has been collapsed.

    Read More
  32. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @kihowi
    The easiest way of ascertaining the driving capabilities of illegal aliens is looking at where they're from. Is it bad? Then they're worse than that, being the bottom of the barrel.

    Interesting question: Is there any place in the world where the poor drive better than the rich?

    I don't think so. A big part of not crashing is being able to anticipate the future. If they had hardware with that kind of capability, they wouldn't be poor. As with any pretty complicated task, navigating traffic is an iq test.

    “Interesting question: Is there any place in the world where the poor drive better than the rich?”

    L.A.

    The whole city is cursed with awful drivers, but the worst drivers in the city are to be found in the westside areas like Santa Monica, Brentwood, Beverly Hills, and Pacific Palisades. Entitlement, aggression, big SUVs, and hard drugs make for a deadly combination. And the women drive more aggressively than the men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    In my rural part of the UK there are a fair few expensive developments built in the grounds of former stately homes, whose occupants are professionals and mostly city refugees.

    Poor locals drive 18 year old Ford Fiestas or Nissan Micras (and are mostly old, young people can't afford to buy here any more), the wealthy occupants of these estates drive Audi TTs at high speeds along the narrow lanes, and the ladies in particular don't seem to worry about what may be round the next bend (I take all corners tight into the hedge, as they also drive in the centre of the road).

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.
  33. “Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded”

    Do we really need a complex formula? Wouldn’t 1+1+1 etc. etc. suffice?

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    Do we really need a complex formula?
     
    Probably. When you see 2 + 2 = 5 it's obvious something is wrong. With a more complex formula most people won't even try to understand it.
    , @Almost Missouri
    "Complex formula" is Newspeak for "we already had the conclusion written so we tortured the data until we could publish".
  34. @Mr. Anon

    Supporters of the measure argued that it would make California roads safer because those here illegally would be forced to take driver’s tests and would be less likely to flee from accidents out of fear of being arrested or deported.
     
    That only helps with the "run" part of "hit and run", not the "hit" part. Okay, so - maybe (it could be the statistics are just being cooked by the police) - hit-and-run accidents are down, because now illegals are more likely to hit-and-stay, rather than hit-and-run. But maybe that's only for non-injury accidents. Are serious-to-fatal hit-and-run accidents down? That would be the important metric in this case.

    I doubt they stay much even now. What makes the difference is that now there are just a lot more of them driving.

    Read More
  35. anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded that there were 4,000 fewer hit-and-runs that year because of the new law.

    Good catch. It would seem to be rather easy to simply count up the reduction in hit and run accidents.

    Turns out that it required a lot of complexity to account for the fact that the required data doesn’t exist. Or the data they thought they required.

    A natural measure of a county’s exposure to the law change is the number of licenses issued under AB60. Unfortunately, the California DMV only publishes the total number of AB60 licenses issued across all counties per month and year. Disaggregated data on AB60 licenses by county were not available upon request.

    They estimated the number of AB60 licenses issued per county per month using statewide AB license data. Based on the theory that the large increase in licenses in 2015 were AB licenses and the counties with the largest increases had correspondingly large increases in AB licenses.

    I will now admit that I couldn’t bring myself to try to follow the convoluted logic of these estimates of the independent variable.

    However, I did find this:

    This procedure yields a total annual decrease in hit-and-run accidents by 3,958. For comparison, the total number of hit-and-run accidents was 73,046 (81,530) in 2014 (2015).

    Which shows that while the law resulted in a decrease of 4,000 hit and runs because of the law, the total number of hit and runs in the state increased from 73,000 to 81,000. So the AB’s increased a lot. Hit and runs increased by over 10%, yet would have —- counterfactually increased by another 5% without the law.

    Something is very wrong with this. Maybe I just don’t get it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    looks like the actual number of hit and runs increased so they made up an estimated number so they could claim the real number being less than their estimate is a decrease?

    in other words their policy got a lot of extra people killed / maimed and they're covering it up

    no wonder the formula needed to be complex

  36. @Formerly CARealist
    Can you buy UNDERinsured driver insurance? A friend was hit by a dumbass driver (actually she was hit by the car that the dumbass hit) and the total damage was well north of 50k for both cars. The driver at fault had only 5k worth of coverage. How can this be?

    Here's the quote from the DMV:

    The minimum amount of liability insurance you must have on your policy is:
    $15,000 for injury/death to one person.
    $30,000 for injury/death to more than one person.
    $5,000 for damage to property.

    See that? 5k for property damage. That means if no one was hurt but a new car was smashed up, you're just SOL for the cost of your car. That's what happened to my friend. So messed up it's criminal.

    That’s odd. I would think that carrying a small amount of property damage insurance on your auto policy doesn’t relieve you of responsibility in case of an accident – that’s just the amount that your car insurance policy will cover for you.

    However, in this case (looking briefly at CA), you’d have to lawyer up (within 30 days it looks like) to submit the uninsured or underinsured motorist claim to the insurance company.

    But if you decide (or the lawyer tells you) that the amount paid via the insurance companies is too small, you can sue in the small claims court…

    But from another legal advice site:

    “Unfortunately, suing an uninsured driver is generally not a good option, from a financial standpoint. Suing an uninsured driver will not usually put much (if any) money in your pocket. This is because most uninsured drivers have little or no money or assets.

    If you win a judgment against a person with little or no money, you are probably not going to get any money from the judgment because the defendant has no money with which to pay you.

    If a defendant does not pay a judgment, you can go back to court to apply for a court order requiring the defendant to pay you. However, courts recognize that a winning plaintiff can’t get blood from a stone, and will not require a legitimately indigent defendant to pay a judgment.”

    As per the iSteve saying: There’s no end to how nice things are nicer than not-so-nice things.

    Read More
  37. anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @anon

    Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded that there were 4,000 fewer hit-and-runs that year because of the new law.
     
    Good catch. It would seem to be rather easy to simply count up the reduction in hit and run accidents.

    Turns out that it required a lot of complexity to account for the fact that the required data doesn't exist. Or the data they thought they required.

    A natural measure of a county’s exposure to the law change is the number of licenses issued under AB60. Unfortunately, the California DMV only publishes the total number of AB60 licenses issued across all counties per month and year. Disaggregated data on AB60 licenses by county were not available upon request.
     
    They estimated the number of AB60 licenses issued per county per month using statewide AB license data. Based on the theory that the large increase in licenses in 2015 were AB licenses and the counties with the largest increases had correspondingly large increases in AB licenses.

    I will now admit that I couldn't bring myself to try to follow the convoluted logic of these estimates of the independent variable.

    However, I did find this:

    This procedure yields a total annual decrease in hit-and-run accidents by 3,958. For comparison, the total number of hit-and-run accidents was 73,046 (81,530) in 2014 (2015).
     
    Which shows that while the law resulted in a decrease of 4,000 hit and runs because of the law, the total number of hit and runs in the state increased from 73,000 to 81,000. So the AB's increased a lot. Hit and runs increased by over 10%, yet would have ---- counterfactually increased by another 5% without the law.

    Something is very wrong with this. Maybe I just don't get it.

    looks like the actual number of hit and runs increased so they made up an estimated number so they could claim the real number being less than their estimate is a decrease?

    in other words their policy got a lot of extra people killed / maimed and they’re covering it up

    no wonder the formula needed to be complex

    Read More
  38. @Anonymous
    "Interesting question: Is there any place in the world where the poor drive better than the rich?"

    L.A.

    The whole city is cursed with awful drivers, but the worst drivers in the city are to be found in the westside areas like Santa Monica, Brentwood, Beverly Hills, and Pacific Palisades. Entitlement, aggression, big SUVs, and hard drugs make for a deadly combination. And the women drive more aggressively than the men.

    In my rural part of the UK there are a fair few expensive developments built in the grounds of former stately homes, whose occupants are professionals and mostly city refugees.

    Poor locals drive 18 year old Ford Fiestas or Nissan Micras (and are mostly old, young people can’t afford to buy here any more), the wealthy occupants of these estates drive Audi TTs at high speeds along the narrow lanes, and the ladies in particular don’t seem to worry about what may be round the next bend (I take all corners tight into the hedge, as they also drive in the centre of the road).

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johann Ricke

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.
     
    *Wince* Did she survive?
  39. @22pp22
    If you want narrative collapse read this:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4375802/Brother-sister-charged-asylum-seeker-attack.html

    and then this:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/03/suspects-racist-hate-attack/

    Our hearts ache for this child refugee or young boy who was beaten for no reason and relieved of his gold chains.

    As an unaccompanied child refugee, he’s “a nice quiet kid who never causes trouble”.

    Maybe.

    Read More
  40. @Bryan
    I would assume this has something to do with female east Asians. I don't know how, but I'll beth there is a correlation there.

    not every one has yellow fever.

    Read More
  41. OT: The immigration and refugee threat to Western Civilization are other areas in which we can anticipate a narrative collapse. As we’ve constantly been told, “Diversity is strength … .”

    Details on the US refugee intake in March 2017 (we should be grateful it is at a historic low):

    Of the 2,070 refugees resettled in March, the largest contingents came from Somalia (335), Syria (282), Burma (278), Iraq (192), Democratic Republic of Congo (184), Ukraine (167) and Iran (101).

    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/2070-refugees-arrived-us-march-54-drop-februarys-4579

    Refugees from Burma, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and Iran? This is insane. What is the justification for taking in refugees regardless of country and culture?

    Insanity clearly has company when it comes to immigration and refugee policies. Germany: an antinatalist culture with open borders as a formula for disaster!

    Up to 75 percent of children in German schools have a different mother tongue to that of German, according to data cited by Tagesspiegel. Many of those children come from Turkish or Arab families.

    https://www.rt.com/news/383373-anti-semite-school-bullying-germany/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

    There might be time for the United States to recover from its insane immigration and refugee policies, but I fear that northern Europe has passed the point of no return.

    Read More
  42. @interesting
    "Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded"


    Do we really need a complex formula? Wouldn't 1+1+1 etc. etc. suffice?

    Do we really need a complex formula?

    Probably. When you see 2 + 2 = 5 it’s obvious something is wrong. With a more complex formula most people won’t even try to understand it.

    Read More
  43. @Stan Adams
    The Chandlers owned the Times for over a century, but it wasn't until 1960, when Otis Chandler took the reins from his father, that its national reputation began to rise. By 1980, when Otis retired, his paper was regarded as the third-best paper in America, after the New York Times and the Washington Post. (Some observers ranked it ahead of its East Coast rivals.)

    One day, late in Otis' tenure, an assistant interrupted a routine business meeting to hand him an urgent note. He immediately excused himself and strode out of the room. In his haste, he carelessly dropped the note on the floor. An executive, fearing that the note brought tidings of some grave crisis, got up and walked over to pick it up.

    It read, simply, "Surf's up."

    (Otis was an avid surfer.)

    Chandlers found the Tribune pigeons to overpay for the LA Times and assorted assets, then watched as the Internet demolished the old newspaper model. Much capital was wasted through the purchase and subsequent bankruptcy.

    Journalism got downsized all over the place and newspaper readers are worse off. That morning cup of coffee seems more enjoyable with a paper than it does looking at a screen, similar to how a book is more satisfying than an e-book. Maybe I should write “Get off my lawn, just leave the paper on the driveway”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    Sam Zell's ill-fated scheme to take Tribune private in 2007 didn't help.
  44. @interesting
    "Using a complex formula, the researchers concluded"


    Do we really need a complex formula? Wouldn't 1+1+1 etc. etc. suffice?

    “Complex formula” is Newspeak for “we already had the conclusion written so we tortured the data until we could publish”.

    Read More
  45. The Plains Dealer and their online site, Cleveland.com, call hit and run,” hit-skips.” Never heard that term before.

    Read More
  46. @Ivy
    Chandlers found the Tribune pigeons to overpay for the LA Times and assorted assets, then watched as the Internet demolished the old newspaper model. Much capital was wasted through the purchase and subsequent bankruptcy.

    Journalism got downsized all over the place and newspaper readers are worse off. That morning cup of coffee seems more enjoyable with a paper than it does looking at a screen, similar to how a book is more satisfying than an e-book. Maybe I should write "Get off my lawn, just leave the paper on the driveway".

    Sam Zell’s ill-fated scheme to take Tribune private in 2007 didn’t help.

    Read More
  47. @Anonymous Nephew
    In my rural part of the UK there are a fair few expensive developments built in the grounds of former stately homes, whose occupants are professionals and mostly city refugees.

    Poor locals drive 18 year old Ford Fiestas or Nissan Micras (and are mostly old, young people can't afford to buy here any more), the wealthy occupants of these estates drive Audi TTs at high speeds along the narrow lanes, and the ladies in particular don't seem to worry about what may be round the next bend (I take all corners tight into the hedge, as they also drive in the centre of the road).

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.

    *Wince* Did she survive?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    Yes, she was unhurt but shaken, but the car (a Mercedes saloon IIRC) looked like a write off, the front being pretty compressed. She was probably only doing 30-35 mph, but when taking a blind 90 degree corner I tend to have a foot poised over the brake 'just in case' - don't think she did.
  48. @Eustace Tilley (not)
    "Obama, Soros, and Hillary sure make me feel like I could use a good donut about now." That would make a good caption for a line-drawn B&W one-frame cartoon, with two cops on patrol (viewpoint of reader from back seat of police car) and a savage street battle of various diversities seen over the cops' shoulders through the windshield, about 1/2 block farther down the street.

    Perhaps it would even be in the New Yorker (not).

    The battle is a little closer than you wanted, but here’s my attempt at what you want.

    Read More
  49. @Johann Ricke

    Last year I came upon an accident where a woman had rounded a corner and run straight into a large trailer behind a tractor.
     
    *Wince* Did she survive?

    Yes, she was unhurt but shaken, but the car (a Mercedes saloon IIRC) looked like a write off, the front being pretty compressed. She was probably only doing 30-35 mph, but when taking a blind 90 degree corner I tend to have a foot poised over the brake ‘just in case’ – don’t think she did.

    Read More
  50. @Faraday's Bobcat
    My observation from the years I spent on LA freeways is that congestion limits people's speed so much of the time that they don't learn how to limit it themselves. They just go as fast as they can all the time, which is usually 32 mph but that magic moment when the traffic loosens up, it's like the back straightaway at Talladega.

    All I can say about Cali drivers is that my cousins who grew up in Southern California and now live in the SF area will not drive when they are in MA. They don’t feel they’re up to the task and enjoy having me, the Road Warrior, chauffeur them.

    Read More
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