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From the National Bureau of Economic Research:

Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom

Melissa S. Kearney, Riley Wilson

Issued in May 2017

There has been a well-documented retreat from marriage among less educated individuals in the U.S. and non-marital childbearing has become the norm among young mothers and mothers with low levels of education. One hypothesis is that the declining economic position of men in these populations is at least partially responsible for these trends. That leads to the reverse hypothesis that an increase in potential earnings of less-educated men would correspondingly lead to an increase in marriage and a reduction in non-marital births. To investigate this possibility, we empirically exploit the positive economic shock associated with localized “fracking booms” throughout the U.S. in recent decades. We confirm that these localized fracking booms led to increased wages for non-college-educated men. A reduced form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, both marital and non-marital births increase and there is no evidence of an increase in marriage rates. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births, but no associated increase in marriage. We compare our findings to the family formation response to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when it appears that marital births and marriage rates increased, but non-marital births did not. This contrast potentially suggests important interactions between economic forces and social context.

From the Houston Chronicle:

In rural parts of Texas, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, the industry created plentiful and lucrative blue-collar jobs and a bonanza of attractive bachelors. Predictably, childbearing rates rose in those areas: About three more births per thousand women, or three percent above the baseline rate.

But those well-paid jobs for men without college diplomas did nothing to bring down the rate of births to unwed women, which now account for 40 percent of American babies, an all-time high.

 
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  1. Sid says:

    That’s worth noting. A better economy means more babies, but not necessarily more marriage or a better culture.

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  2. Barnard says:

    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.

    She is correct that cultural changes have as much to do with the marriage rate as economic factors. Although, I think another factor in the fracking boom is that everyone understood from the beginning that it was a boom and that there would be a bust. I don’t know had badly these women want to marry men who are making $75 an hour today, but could lose their jobs at any moment.

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    • Replies: @ben tillman
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    That's laughable. If politicians repeal welfare benefits for unwed mothers, the "trend" will end immediately.
    , @George
    How can you tell they are not 'married'? In Texas, for example, common law marriage is the same as filing the paper with the judge.

    http://www.unmarried.org/common-law-marriage-fact-sheet/

    I suspect in every state if a twenty something dude with no assets but a reasonably high income gets a woman pregnant, she and the child have the same legal protection as a married woman. I could even string together an argument that marriage is irresponsible. If they cannot afford the marriage ceremony maybe they should just save it for a latter date.

    So things might not be what they seem.
    , @Kit
    This is important. Texas has had a dozen of these booms and they always fizzle. Also, we have a phrase "oil field trash." The kinds of men who take these jobs are not particularly good risks for anything but short-term alliances.
    , @dr kill
    Do you know any young women from oil patch towns? Ever seen Officer and a Gentleman? Or Urban Cowboy?
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  3. “But those well-paid jobs for men without college diplomas did nothing to bring down the rate of births to unwed women ….”

    Nah, the good earning blue-collar guys were snapped up by well-educated women who saw good breeding stock.

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  4. It’s not exactly the sort of boom that you would expect to lead to more marriages, is it?

    As was widely reported at the time, the gender ratio in fracking areas became skewed, and single young men who come from afar to work in a male-dominated field don’t exactly have the easiest time meeting marriageable women.

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  5. countenance says: • Website

    Let’s be real.

    This is the real reason why the left hates fossil fuels. Not because of the environment, but because they give white cishet gentile men without ostentatious educational credentials the ability not only to make a good living and to sustain a household, but make more money than people with educational credentials make. It’s a combination of jealousy, racial enmity and (because affordable family formation for white cishet gentiles correlates very strongly with two-party voting habits) partisan hysteria.

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    • Agree: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @ATX Hipster
    The funny thing is by demonizing O&G, they're helping to ensure salaries stay high by limiting supply. Anecdotally, several engineering students have told me they wouldn't go into the industry because they "would rather be part of the solution than part of the problem."
    , @dr kill
    Not only that, but the oil patch rewards traditional American behavior and punishes current ideals. Stay clean, be on time, work hard. Get paid. Dirty piss test and out you go. From 140k plus the bennies and half a year off to out on your ass. BP and RDS don't play.
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  6. I favor a guaranteed annual income because I expect the combined income of man and wife would support a family. The husband would be able to make the difference between a poor family life and a fair one so the wife would look for such a husband.

    If the wife chose to stay at home, the man would be free to work and gain additional income. Of course it’s important that the GAI would replace all welfare, and that the first dollar of work income be untaxed in order to eliminate the extremely high marginal tax created by welfare today.

    And of course, it’s also critical that illegal immigrant workers be unavailable and that legal immigration be greatly reduced,

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    • Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
    Yes, you're absolutely right.

    However Daniel Patrick Moynihan worked GAI all out nearly five decades ago, and Steve even posted about the Nixon/Moynihan conversation in which GAI was mentioned tangentially a couple of weeks ago.

    I doubt we're any closer to this sensible step than we were in 1970.

    John Kenneth Galbraith and Paul Samuelson, among many others, long argued for a GAI.
    , @Neuday
    I've suggested a "Grand Bargain"; build a wall, deport illegals, and severely limit immigration in return for a GAI and single-payer health care. Immigrants have access to neither, nor do their offspring.

    Let's see the globalists keep the blacks from voting themselves GAI at the low cost of kicking out "new americans". Run some numbers on how much education money is spend on los americanos nuevos, and how that money could go to "urban" "schools" to close that (unclosable) gap. Wouldn't prison be so much safer without MS13? Perhaps Shanktavious would finally get his life on track after prison if he had a GAI to look forward to? Make Compton American Again!

    Build a wall, deport them all, and a GAI for all y'all.
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  7. Ed says:

    Moynihan showed this with blacks with his scissors graph. As black male employability & earnings rose, the rate of out of wedlock births increased.

    Although with blacks I think earning more just allowed the men to increase their mating capabilities. My college roommate’s father was a DC Metro manager, he fathered several children before & during his marriage to my roommate’s mother. They’re still married to this day.

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    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "As black male employability & earnings rose, the rate of out of wedlock births increased."

    Not accurate. Since the '60's as the rate of out of wedlock births among blacks increased, the total rate of employability DEcreased (or declined). In point of fact for most of this decade, African American rates of unemployment are among an all time high. If anything, since the '60's and the birth of welfare culture, out of wedlock births increased regardless of employment, especially among blacks.

    Also keep in mind that black male employability would take into account such professions as sports and entertainment, thus tending to affect the total rate of black employment in the US. On the other hand, black males tend to be overrepresented in the US prison population, which would tend to lower their total number of employment and earnings.

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  8. NOTA says:

    Culture matters. The functioning white working class had a culture that encouraged getting married and raising a family. But that culture has mostly died out, and blue collar whites are on the same path that blacks have already gone down.

    I’m not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids–all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.

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    • Agree: Old fogey
    • Replies: @Clark Westwood

    I’m not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids–all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.
     
    Sad to say, I think we've reached a point where it's not fixable. It has to run its course, whatever that may be.
    , @Maj. Kong
    It will require a strong state on the model of Russia, China and the IRI.
    , @Flip
    I think you need to make women more financially dependent on men, which is not likely to happen in the current environment.
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  9. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births, but no associated increase in marriage. We compare our findings to the family formation response to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when it appears that marital births and marriage rates increased, but non-marital births did not.

    This is consistent with Murray’s Coming Apart. Social pathologies have been increasing in the lower and working classes since the 60s, regardless of intervening economic conditions.

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  10. J.Ross says: • Website

    Even if your name is Charles “DaBraynzMasstah” Murray, even if you have a billion data points and a column in the best newspapers, all discussion of the collapse of marriage, *all of it*, that lacks mention of *no-fault divorce* or predatory judges, is a dishonest waste of time which contributes nothing and lowers your reputation. Discuss this issue in terms of no-fault divorce or find another topic.
    The entirety of this issue is no-fault divorce. Women are being bombarded from every influence to view marriage as a shopping expedition and that position is getting facilitated by government at every level. Men are not allowed to even complain about it.
    I would much rather give up sex altogether than have everything stolen from me by one forgettable whore who was never serious about raising children, and so would everyone else who thinks about this, even Charles Murray. If Amber Heard didn’t persuade you then look into the ease with which women decide that their children were getting abused, the discussions they have on how to accomplish this on social media, and how simple it can be to persuade a child to say the right thngs.

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    • Agree: dfordoom
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  11. @NOTA
    Culture matters. The functioning white working class had a culture that encouraged getting married and raising a family. But that culture has mostly died out, and blue collar whites are on the same path that blacks have already gone down.

    I'm not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids--all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.

    I’m not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids–all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.

    Sad to say, I think we’ve reached a point where it’s not fixable. It has to run its course, whatever that may be.

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    • Replies: @Old fogey
    People much smarter than I am need to ponder why in the 1960s people in the West suddenly became willing - even eager - to throw away all the knowledge gained over thousands of years by their ancestors in how to defend the family.
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  12. whiskey says: • Website

    It’s women. Don’t need or want a husband if he’s not an Alpha. Will have kids with upper earning man.

    Women choose. That simple.

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    • Agree: MBlanc46
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    True for present circumstances, but: brainless female sexuality is a scary monster to the ignorant only. We contained it for generations and we can contain it again, especially on the other side of the gruesome spectacle that's coming and which is already being quietly discussed. I refer to the autoholocaust of the Eat-Pray-Love set.
    , @dfordoom

    It’s women. Don’t need or want a husband if he’s not an Alpha.
     
    Don’t need or want a husband if the state will pay the costs of raising your bastards.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    Choosing to marry implies permanence, or at least a long-term engagement. These days, almost everything prejudices against commitment to long-term engagements, besides debt and "careers"(also debt-related via educational loans).
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  13. Maj. Kong says:
    @NOTA
    Culture matters. The functioning white working class had a culture that encouraged getting married and raising a family. But that culture has mostly died out, and blue collar whites are on the same path that blacks have already gone down.

    I'm not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids--all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.

    It will require a strong state on the model of Russia, China and the IRI.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Judah Benjamin Hur
    Russia's illegitimacy rate isn't much different from Italy, which doesn't exactly have a "strong state" model.
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  14. Flip says:
    @NOTA
    Culture matters. The functioning white working class had a culture that encouraged getting married and raising a family. But that culture has mostly died out, and blue collar whites are on the same path that blacks have already gone down.

    I'm not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids--all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.

    I think you need to make women more financially dependent on men, which is not likely to happen in the current environment.

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I can count the women I have worked with, who actually worked, on one hand. When Bill Gates talks about a coming white collar automation wipe-out, he's largely talking about women.
    The way for us to think about this stuff is not as idealistic counter-revolutionaries who have to completely re-educate the world, but as farmers observing the clouds and setting out extra rain barrels.
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  15. Earnings differential is part of this too.

    However, bank lending policies on mortgages are very important for marriage formation or not. There was once a time when mortgages were 3.5 times the husband’s income for 80% of the value, the other 20% having been saved by the engaged couple, in a joint account, for at least a year at the rate expected for monthly payback. No commitment, no house. These days, in the UK at least, unrelated strangers can take on a mortgage together, not even a civil partnership required. And in the boom, for 120% of the house value, no questions about earnings asked.

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  16. J.Ross says: • Website
    @whiskey
    It's women. Don't need or want a husband if he's not an Alpha. Will have kids with upper earning man.

    Women choose. That simple.

    True for present circumstances, but: brainless female sexuality is a scary monster to the ignorant only. We contained it for generations and we can contain it again, especially on the other side of the gruesome spectacle that’s coming and which is already being quietly discussed. I refer to the autoholocaust of the Eat-Pray-Love set.

    Read More
    • Replies: @jjbees
    Generation Z is known for its conservatism.

    The shrews have refused to be tamed, they cling to their birth control and leftism, and thus cede the future to us.

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  17. Marriage and Money: Not so recent evidence from the Georgian Boom:

    It is a truth universally acknowledged…

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  18. utu says:

    Did they look at STD rates in boomtowns?

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  19. It’s always important to remember that, while economic matters are certainly worthy of our attention, they are ultimately downstream from culture. You cannot wag the cultural dog with the economic tail.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Kinda disagree. Economics vastly alter the shape of culture, too. For example, the boom of heavy urbanized industries essentially killed the agrarian character of America, and the mores probably took only one generation to die out. Patterns of employment, centralization of people, and all other aspects serve to impact culture as well.
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  20. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Flip
    I think you need to make women more financially dependent on men, which is not likely to happen in the current environment.

    I can count the women I have worked with, who actually worked, on one hand. When Bill Gates talks about a coming white collar automation wipe-out, he’s largely talking about women.
    The way for us to think about this stuff is not as idealistic counter-revolutionaries who have to completely re-educate the world, but as farmers observing the clouds and setting out extra rain barrels.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  21. jjbees says:
    @J.Ross
    True for present circumstances, but: brainless female sexuality is a scary monster to the ignorant only. We contained it for generations and we can contain it again, especially on the other side of the gruesome spectacle that's coming and which is already being quietly discussed. I refer to the autoholocaust of the Eat-Pray-Love set.

    Generation Z is known for its conservatism.

    The shrews have refused to be tamed, they cling to their birth control and leftism, and thus cede the future to us.

    Read More
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  22. @Barnard
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    She is correct that cultural changes have as much to do with the marriage rate as economic factors. Although, I think another factor in the fracking boom is that everyone understood from the beginning that it was a boom and that there would be a bust. I don't know had badly these women want to marry men who are making $75 an hour today, but could lose their jobs at any moment.

    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.

    That’s laughable. If politicians repeal welfare benefits for unwed mothers, the “trend” will end immediately.

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Heather MacDonald has some of the best material to this point. Her book "The Burden of Bad Ideas" is a foundational text. Almost everything she warned about in the 90s has come true or gone worse than she feared.
    , @NOTA
    I doubt it. The perverse family-breaking incentives of our public assistance programs were one factor in getting us here, but only one. Plenty of people who don't need public assistance are shacking up with girlfriend of the month, like the guys getting well-paid in the oil boom they were looking at in this study.
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  23. J.Ross says: • Website
    @ben tillman
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    That's laughable. If politicians repeal welfare benefits for unwed mothers, the "trend" will end immediately.

    Heather MacDonald has some of the best material to this point. Her book “The Burden of Bad Ideas” is a foundational text. Almost everything she warned about in the 90s has come true or gone worse than she feared.

    Read More
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  24. George says:
    @Barnard
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    She is correct that cultural changes have as much to do with the marriage rate as economic factors. Although, I think another factor in the fracking boom is that everyone understood from the beginning that it was a boom and that there would be a bust. I don't know had badly these women want to marry men who are making $75 an hour today, but could lose their jobs at any moment.

    How can you tell they are not ‘married’? In Texas, for example, common law marriage is the same as filing the paper with the judge.

    http://www.unmarried.org/common-law-marriage-fact-sheet/

    I suspect in every state if a twenty something dude with no assets but a reasonably high income gets a woman pregnant, she and the child have the same legal protection as a married woman. I could even string together an argument that marriage is irresponsible. If they cannot afford the marriage ceremony maybe they should just save it for a latter date.

    So things might not be what they seem.

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  25. Ironsides says:

    The guys aren’t going to get married as long as the women have the power to make off at any time with their money, house, and kids, for any reason or none at all. Marriage offers men absolutely nothing that they can’t get today from a non-marriage relationship, while piling a bunch of horrendous downsides on them that basically put them completely under the thrall of the other party.

    I mean, would YOU deliberately enter a contract that offered you exactly nothing, while giving the other contracting person absolute power to ruin your life, take your money, and possible get you thrown in jail based purely on their whim?

    Read More
    • Replies: @27 year old
    It's even worse than that because they then resent us for being so dumb as to sign up for it.
    , @Old fogey
    You are absolutely right, Ironsides. As long as women are willing to provide men with everything they want without insisting on marriage there is no logical reason for men to marry.

    Women have sold their souls in the aim of some false sense of "equality" - which, of course, they have no chance of achieving because they are not the same as men, their instincts and their emotions are simply different from those of men.
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  26. Veracitor says:

    No marriage means no divorce, and surprisingly many young men and women don’t realize that they can sue for child support separately from any divorce.

    Since divorce is now a complete racket which always gives the woman (and her lawyers and their helpers) all of the man’s savings and– with children– most of his income for decades, it’s no wonder that men procreate without marrying.

    The only way to fix the low marriage rate is to fix the divorce/child-support racket.

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    • Replies: @grapesoda
    No one with elite status will ever care about this because they have the means to survive expensive divorces.

    This is a populist issue that Trump has never said anything about. Maybe he and his handlers were afraid of losing the female vote? Maybe this is an untouchable third rail issue, like Social Security.
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  27. anon says: • Disclaimer

    As far as divorce.

    I think it is the children of divorce that are reluctant to enlist. They understand modern family life better than anyone.

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  28. @Robert Hume
    I favor a guaranteed annual income because I expect the combined income of man and wife would support a family. The husband would be able to make the difference between a poor family life and a fair one so the wife would look for such a husband.

    If the wife chose to stay at home, the man would be free to work and gain additional income. Of course it's important that the GAI would replace all welfare, and that the first dollar of work income be untaxed in order to eliminate the extremely high marginal tax created by welfare today.

    And of course, it's also critical that illegal immigrant workers be unavailable and that legal immigration be greatly reduced,

    Yes, you’re absolutely right.

    However Daniel Patrick Moynihan worked GAI all out nearly five decades ago, and Steve even posted about the Nixon/Moynihan conversation in which GAI was mentioned tangentially a couple of weeks ago.

    I doubt we’re any closer to this sensible step than we were in 1970.

    John Kenneth Galbraith and Paul Samuelson, among many others, long argued for a GAI.

    Read More
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  29. Male to female ratio of these boom towns may be a factor.

    Read More
    • Replies: @NOTA
    If it were just lack of available women, we wouldn't have seen an increase in unwed pregnancies.
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  30. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Destroying communities is easier than building them, but there have been many community building endeavors over the years that went counter to the mainstream. Some, like the Mormon CHurch, have survived. Others, like Oneida and Gaskin’s Farm, have passed away, but that they succeed at all proves it can be done even today.

    Anyone want to invent a new new religion?

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  31. @Ironsides
    The guys aren't going to get married as long as the women have the power to make off at any time with their money, house, and kids, for any reason or none at all. Marriage offers men absolutely nothing that they can't get today from a non-marriage relationship, while piling a bunch of horrendous downsides on them that basically put them completely under the thrall of the other party.

    I mean, would YOU deliberately enter a contract that offered you exactly nothing, while giving the other contracting person absolute power to ruin your life, take your money, and possible get you thrown in jail based purely on their whim?

    It’s even worse than that because they then resent us for being so dumb as to sign up for it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew

    "You've made my life a misery for 15 years!"

    "If that's true, how stupid must you be to put up with it!"
     
    True story, bro (thankfully not mine).
    , @grapesoda
    It's a risk, but it's one worth taking. Being divorce raped, and being an eternal bachelor, for those who want the full traditional family experience, are both suboptimal outcomes. Getting married to a submissive woman in a 3rd World country is also suboptimal... not because of the woman but because of being an alien and accepting lower standard of living etc. None of these particular paths are optimal but can yield extraordinary results with a bit of luck, planning and endeavor.
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  32. Trelane says:

    Here’s an idea: why don’t we require that the surname “Bastardson” be applied to all children born out-of-wedlock? That’s what the county registrar’s birth certificate says and no, there’s no changing your name. Now 72% of all black people have the surname “Bastardson”. And 32% of white people share this name as in “Destiny Bastardson” of row 41 in the Harper trailer park. Might not this one minor detail change behavior among this country’s bastardy? The knowledge that your illigitimate child would be known by his very name?

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    • Replies: @Kentucky Headhunter
    I think "Whoreson" would be more effective and accurate.
    , @NOTA
    Maybe a different name in each part of the country--Snow, Sand, etc.
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  33. I’d be more interested in a study that would look at the effect of the shale boom on marriage rates in major cities whose economies are dominated by the oil industry.

    Lots of the boomtown roughnecks were not local to the reservoirs, but from Houston or Louisiana and in the area on contract. Many go for the specific purpose of saving a lot of money quickly by working for a high wage in a place with a rock bottom cost of living and few amenities to blow money on. It’s stupid to think they’re all going to settle down with an oil patch prostitute and have a family.

    So the question should be: During the boom, did many of these guys take their money and go back to their girlfriend in whatever town they actually intended to live in and get married?

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  34. @countenance
    Let's be real.

    This is the real reason why the left hates fossil fuels. Not because of the environment, but because they give white cishet gentile men without ostentatious educational credentials the ability not only to make a good living and to sustain a household, but make more money than people with educational credentials make. It's a combination of jealousy, racial enmity and (because affordable family formation for white cishet gentiles correlates very strongly with two-party voting habits) partisan hysteria.

    The funny thing is by demonizing O&G, they’re helping to ensure salaries stay high by limiting supply. Anecdotally, several engineering students have told me they wouldn’t go into the industry because they “would rather be part of the solution than part of the problem.”

    Read More
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  35. The majority of Latin American children are now born out of wedlock.

    Latin America is now the region that has the highest percentage of children born out of wedlock. In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers. Argentina, Mexico, Chile and other countries throughout the region have similar numbers, with well over half of all children born outside wedlock.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/12/14/459098779/all-across-latin-america-unwed-mothers-are-now-the-norm

    I’m almost 50 and the world has changed completely in my lifetime. It’s nuts.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    That South America article was a shocker. How long until their human exports tick up? Maybe that was the Brazilian electric grid coordination Hillary got caught pitching. Or was she catching?
    , @grapesoda

    In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers.
     
    Wow, didn't know that.
    , @Flip
    How is the Catholic Church allowing this?
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  36. @Maj. Kong
    It will require a strong state on the model of Russia, China and the IRI.

    Russia’s illegitimacy rate isn’t much different from Italy, which doesn’t exactly have a “strong state” model.

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  37. dfordoom says: • Website
    @whiskey
    It's women. Don't need or want a husband if he's not an Alpha. Will have kids with upper earning man.

    Women choose. That simple.

    It’s women. Don’t need or want a husband if he’s not an Alpha.

    Don’t need or want a husband if the state will pay the costs of raising your bastards.

    Read More
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  38. Ivy says:
    @Judah Benjamin Hur
    The majority of Latin American children are now born out of wedlock.

    Latin America is now the region that has the highest percentage of children born out of wedlock. In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers. Argentina, Mexico, Chile and other countries throughout the region have similar numbers, with well over half of all children born outside wedlock.


    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/12/14/459098779/all-across-latin-america-unwed-mothers-are-now-the-norm

     

    I'm almost 50 and the world has changed completely in my lifetime. It's nuts.

    That South America article was a shocker. How long until their human exports tick up? Maybe that was the Brazilian electric grid coordination Hillary got caught pitching. Or was she catching?

    Read More
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  39. Old fogey says:
    @Clark Westwood

    I’m not sure how this gets better. Functioning communities, religion and church attendance, lots of visible intact families raising kids–all that stuff is easier to break than to fix.
     
    Sad to say, I think we've reached a point where it's not fixable. It has to run its course, whatever that may be.

    People much smarter than I am need to ponder why in the 1960s people in the West suddenly became willing – even eager – to throw away all the knowledge gained over thousands of years by their ancestors in how to defend the family.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Same reason why people everywhere else are doing it: for blue jeans and smartphones.
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  40. Old fogey says:
    @Ironsides
    The guys aren't going to get married as long as the women have the power to make off at any time with their money, house, and kids, for any reason or none at all. Marriage offers men absolutely nothing that they can't get today from a non-marriage relationship, while piling a bunch of horrendous downsides on them that basically put them completely under the thrall of the other party.

    I mean, would YOU deliberately enter a contract that offered you exactly nothing, while giving the other contracting person absolute power to ruin your life, take your money, and possible get you thrown in jail based purely on their whim?

    You are absolutely right, Ironsides. As long as women are willing to provide men with everything they want without insisting on marriage there is no logical reason for men to marry.

    Women have sold their souls in the aim of some false sense of “equality” – which, of course, they have no chance of achieving because they are not the same as men, their instincts and their emotions are simply different from those of men.

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  41. The problem with the modern neoliberal economy isn’t jobs or money per se, it’s job market instability coupled with easy credit. When most employment is temporary or unstable, a lot of people (consciously or unconsciously) adopt a carpe diem lifestyle. This isn’t necessarily something new – in many ways it’s a return to the more anarchic 19th Century when gold miners, navvies and sailors spent their temporary windfalls on booze, gambling and loose women.

    In the Keynesian era, policy advisers were more acutely aware of this problem, which is why economic and social policy was focused on providing steady employment, government managed credit and restrictions on the activities of the service economy (crack downs on loan sharks, gambling, prostitution, shopping hours, pub hours etc).

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  42. About half of all births in Britain are to unmarried mothers.

    Fortunately, the percentage appears to be leveling off. Unfortunately, that is because of the increasing number of Muslim immigrants who abhor births outside of marriage.

    In about a third of British single parent households, the parent is unemployed.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21640335-proportion-births-outside-marriage-has-last-stopped-rising-legitimate

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2540974/Britain-fourth-highest-number-single-parents-EU.html

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  43. @Ed
    Moynihan showed this with blacks with his scissors graph. As black male employability & earnings rose, the rate of out of wedlock births increased.

    Although with blacks I think earning more just allowed the men to increase their mating capabilities. My college roommate's father was a DC Metro manager, he fathered several children before & during his marriage to my roommate's mother. They're still married to this day.

    “As black male employability & earnings rose, the rate of out of wedlock births increased.”

    Not accurate. Since the ’60′s as the rate of out of wedlock births among blacks increased, the total rate of employability DEcreased (or declined). In point of fact for most of this decade, African American rates of unemployment are among an all time high. If anything, since the ’60′s and the birth of welfare culture, out of wedlock births increased regardless of employment, especially among blacks.

    Also keep in mind that black male employability would take into account such professions as sports and entertainment, thus tending to affect the total rate of black employment in the US. On the other hand, black males tend to be overrepresented in the US prison population, which would tend to lower their total number of employment and earnings.

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  44. […] 8. Economic booms now raise births, not marriage […]

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  45. You’re not kidding about the state acting as muscle for the woman in a divorce proceeding, and the duplicity of any report that doesn’t take that into effect.

    I can remember in the Army NCOs who had married locals while stationed in Korea and Germany getting edgy around their tenth anniversary, because that’s when the wife got half of their pension.

    The civil service isn’t much better. The wife doesn’t have to contribute one red cent to your pension or TSP but damn if you don’t need her signature whenever you want to do anything with it.

    Those are the two paths nowadays to upper middle class success, and there’s a significant amount of financial peril involved in marriage.

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  46. @27 year old
    It's even worse than that because they then resent us for being so dumb as to sign up for it.

    “You’ve made my life a misery for 15 years!”

    “If that’s true, how stupid must you be to put up with it!”

    True story, bro (thankfully not mine).

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  47. grapesoda says:
    @Veracitor
    No marriage means no divorce, and surprisingly many young men and women don't realize that they can sue for child support separately from any divorce.

    Since divorce is now a complete racket which always gives the woman (and her lawyers and their helpers) all of the man's savings and-- with children-- most of his income for decades, it's no wonder that men procreate without marrying.

    The only way to fix the low marriage rate is to fix the divorce/child-support racket.

    No one with elite status will ever care about this because they have the means to survive expensive divorces.

    This is a populist issue that Trump has never said anything about. Maybe he and his handlers were afraid of losing the female vote? Maybe this is an untouchable third rail issue, like Social Security.

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  48. @Trelane
    Here's an idea: why don't we require that the surname "Bastardson" be applied to all children born out-of-wedlock? That's what the county registrar's birth certificate says and no, there's no changing your name. Now 72% of all black people have the surname "Bastardson". And 32% of white people share this name as in "Destiny Bastardson" of row 41 in the Harper trailer park. Might not this one minor detail change behavior among this country's bastardy? The knowledge that your illigitimate child would be known by his very name?

    I think “Whoreson” would be more effective and accurate.

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  49. grapesoda says:
    @27 year old
    It's even worse than that because they then resent us for being so dumb as to sign up for it.

    It’s a risk, but it’s one worth taking. Being divorce raped, and being an eternal bachelor, for those who want the full traditional family experience, are both suboptimal outcomes. Getting married to a submissive woman in a 3rd World country is also suboptimal… not because of the woman but because of being an alien and accepting lower standard of living etc. None of these particular paths are optimal but can yield extraordinary results with a bit of luck, planning and endeavor.

    Read More
    • Replies: @27 year old
    I took the risk, lol, married for a couple years now to a cute White girl from an intact family whose main goal in life is motherhood. We'll see how it goes.
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  50. grapesoda says:
    @Judah Benjamin Hur
    The majority of Latin American children are now born out of wedlock.

    Latin America is now the region that has the highest percentage of children born out of wedlock. In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers. Argentina, Mexico, Chile and other countries throughout the region have similar numbers, with well over half of all children born outside wedlock.


    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/12/14/459098779/all-across-latin-america-unwed-mothers-are-now-the-norm

     

    I'm almost 50 and the world has changed completely in my lifetime. It's nuts.

    In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers.

    Wow, didn’t know that.

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  51. TheJester says:

    What a stupid study! Marriage (or family formation) requires stability. As it historically developed, the fracking industry has been inherently unstable.

    We have oil wells in North Dakota. It’s been boom and bust. Almost everything in the fracking industry is performed on a subcontract basis, which offers a very high degree of flexibility in hiring and firing that closely follows the price of oil.

    Indeed, the fracking industry in North Dakota has been so volatile that there has been little investment in permanent infrastructure that includes housing for roughnecks, truck drivers, etc. They live transient lives as bachelors in motels, mobile homes, and other temporary lodgings. That and the volatility in income associated with a boom and bust industry is definitely not an environment for family formation.

    As other commenters have suggested, the lack of an increase in family formation associated with the boom and bust cycles in the fracking industry should be a warning sign regarding the impact on family formation as other sectors of our economy move to similar and volatile subcontract labor arrangements.

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    • Agree: Triumph104
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  52. Mr. Anon says:

    OT: Just the other day, I saw a billboard in my town with a public health warning about syphillis, which I suppose is making a comeback.

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  53. @Old fogey
    People much smarter than I am need to ponder why in the 1960s people in the West suddenly became willing - even eager - to throw away all the knowledge gained over thousands of years by their ancestors in how to defend the family.

    Same reason why people everywhere else are doing it: for blue jeans and smartphones.

    Read More
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  54. @whiskey
    It's women. Don't need or want a husband if he's not an Alpha. Will have kids with upper earning man.

    Women choose. That simple.

    Choosing to marry implies permanence, or at least a long-term engagement. These days, almost everything prejudices against commitment to long-term engagements, besides debt and “careers”(also debt-related via educational loans).

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  55. @Intelligent Dasein
    It's always important to remember that, while economic matters are certainly worthy of our attention, they are ultimately downstream from culture. You cannot wag the cultural dog with the economic tail.

    Kinda disagree. Economics vastly alter the shape of culture, too. For example, the boom of heavy urbanized industries essentially killed the agrarian character of America, and the mores probably took only one generation to die out. Patterns of employment, centralization of people, and all other aspects serve to impact culture as well.

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  56. Kit says:
    @Barnard
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    She is correct that cultural changes have as much to do with the marriage rate as economic factors. Although, I think another factor in the fracking boom is that everyone understood from the beginning that it was a boom and that there would be a bust. I don't know had badly these women want to marry men who are making $75 an hour today, but could lose their jobs at any moment.

    This is important. Texas has had a dozen of these booms and they always fizzle. Also, we have a phrase “oil field trash.” The kinds of men who take these jobs are not particularly good risks for anything but short-term alliances.

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  57. It seems to this older chap that a lot has to do with the absolute loss of a Christian world view in the west, both outside of conventional religious communities and also within the same.

    The societal model used to be, and was supported by law, that the husband was the head of the household. Children outside of marriage was punished both by poverty and loss of social standing to women and men both (but mostly to women). while not best for each individual’s immediate desires, it produced stable children and rewarded positive behavior. This was the Christian world view. seemed to work for the last 500 years when the west grew to dominate the world and basically was the most successful social pattern seen in that time.

    Starting in the 1870s with various acts that removed the position of the husband as the head of household under the law, things started to change. Intellectuals thought they had that G-d like ability to engineer something better, believing they could undo human faults and create utopia.

    It came to a head between 1962 and 1972, with the male-female egalitarian acts, abortion on demand, no fault divorce, feminism breeding resentment towards men and the pill, which eliminate done of the primary limits of female sexual activity, as well as apparently affecting their mental state by manipulation of hormones. That and the continued state of law which in essence which almost never requires females to face the consequences of bad decisions.

    The end result was a society that in essence rejected the last 2000 years of Christian social order. The results 2 generations later are pretty clear: disaster with no clear path back to a functional society.

    There does not seem to be a way to go back within the framework of existing institutions. The various sects of Christianity, form mainstream protestant, catholic and most charismatic faiths seem to pretty much go along with the egalitarian model. They are in many ways furthering the emasculation of the men of the west, teaching them that modest stillness, submission and humility is what G-D wants, while encouraging importation of a predator class of men not so inclined. The end result will be the abandonment of Christianity by the men lied too, they will return to European pre Christian barbarism. One can see it already in young men.

    The only way out is a new Christian revival of the west, which does not embrace pagan barbarism but which rejects the traitorous teachings of a eunuch class of ministers, priests and religious leaders who have gone as far off the mark as their Jewish brethren did around 29 AD. Which will not happen with out a man like Franco, Pinochet or Salazar in charge. Part of that will mean the end of the constitutional system as we know it, likely until such time as the traditional social structure that allowed for real representative democracy to exist is reestablished. Meaning folks having sufficient inward morality and self-control that they can be trusted with power. That takes a generation and will involve most women losing the vote.

    The alternative is a Brazil like corruption multi ethnic state dominated by elites with a veneer of representative rule that every one knows is false (like Mexico or the soviet union). That is the best one can hope for, and such a society will not last, as there is nothing to say such a society can maintain the level of technology the west has produced. far more likely is a period of absolute collapse, if the left gets its way and manages to impose some kind of Stalinist/Maoist state on their way to a supposed utopia. That will result in the US going thorough what Russia did in 1917 to 1957 or China from 1948 to 1978. 30 to 40 years of pure hell.

    In 500 years if the Christian west still exists they will look back on this much as we look on the collapse of Judah from 29 to 135 AD or the collapse of the catholic hegemony between 1290 to 1648. Pure societal insanity.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    I regret that I have but one 'agree' to lavish on this comment.
    , @J.Ross
    Total agreement. The voices which are thought of as discredited are actually vindicated.
    , @Anonymous Nephew
    Peter Hitchens thinks we are at a time when a great spiritual leader could arise, in a parallel to the UK religious revival of the Wesleys, and is worried that he might be a Muslim when he does arise.

    On the other hand, in the 18th century there wasn't a tightly controlled media and educational propaganda machine, and government didn't have an "internet panopticon" or "hate speech" laws.


    "Clergy attacked them in sermons and in print, and at times mobs attacked them. Wesley and his followers continued to work among the neglected and needy. They were denounced as promulgators of strange doctrines, fomenters of religious disturbances; as blind fanatics, leading people astray, claiming miraculous gifts, attacking the clergy of the Church of England, and trying to re-establish Catholicism."

    Wesley was an ordained Anglican priest, and that was the treatment he got from his fellow-Anglicans. A new Wesley, be he Christian or Muslim, would get more, and worse, from our current elites.
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  58. Neuday says:
    @Robert Hume
    I favor a guaranteed annual income because I expect the combined income of man and wife would support a family. The husband would be able to make the difference between a poor family life and a fair one so the wife would look for such a husband.

    If the wife chose to stay at home, the man would be free to work and gain additional income. Of course it's important that the GAI would replace all welfare, and that the first dollar of work income be untaxed in order to eliminate the extremely high marginal tax created by welfare today.

    And of course, it's also critical that illegal immigrant workers be unavailable and that legal immigration be greatly reduced,

    I’ve suggested a “Grand Bargain”; build a wall, deport illegals, and severely limit immigration in return for a GAI and single-payer health care. Immigrants have access to neither, nor do their offspring.

    Let’s see the globalists keep the blacks from voting themselves GAI at the low cost of kicking out “new americans”. Run some numbers on how much education money is spend on los americanos nuevos, and how that money could go to “urban” “schools” to close that (unclosable) gap. Wouldn’t prison be so much safer without MS13? Perhaps Shanktavious would finally get his life on track after prison if he had a GAI to look forward to? Make Compton American Again!

    Build a wall, deport them all, and a GAI for all y’all.

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  59. @grapesoda
    It's a risk, but it's one worth taking. Being divorce raped, and being an eternal bachelor, for those who want the full traditional family experience, are both suboptimal outcomes. Getting married to a submissive woman in a 3rd World country is also suboptimal... not because of the woman but because of being an alien and accepting lower standard of living etc. None of these particular paths are optimal but can yield extraordinary results with a bit of luck, planning and endeavor.

    I took the risk, lol, married for a couple years now to a cute White girl from an intact family whose main goal in life is motherhood. We’ll see how it goes.

    Read More
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  60. @Sam the Man
    It seems to this older chap that a lot has to do with the absolute loss of a Christian world view in the west, both outside of conventional religious communities and also within the same.

    The societal model used to be, and was supported by law, that the husband was the head of the household. Children outside of marriage was punished both by poverty and loss of social standing to women and men both (but mostly to women). while not best for each individual's immediate desires, it produced stable children and rewarded positive behavior. This was the Christian world view. seemed to work for the last 500 years when the west grew to dominate the world and basically was the most successful social pattern seen in that time.

    Starting in the 1870s with various acts that removed the position of the husband as the head of household under the law, things started to change. Intellectuals thought they had that G-d like ability to engineer something better, believing they could undo human faults and create utopia.

    It came to a head between 1962 and 1972, with the male-female egalitarian acts, abortion on demand, no fault divorce, feminism breeding resentment towards men and the pill, which eliminate done of the primary limits of female sexual activity, as well as apparently affecting their mental state by manipulation of hormones. That and the continued state of law which in essence which almost never requires females to face the consequences of bad decisions.

    The end result was a society that in essence rejected the last 2000 years of Christian social order. The results 2 generations later are pretty clear: disaster with no clear path back to a functional society.

    There does not seem to be a way to go back within the framework of existing institutions. The various sects of Christianity, form mainstream protestant, catholic and most charismatic faiths seem to pretty much go along with the egalitarian model. They are in many ways furthering the emasculation of the men of the west, teaching them that modest stillness, submission and humility is what G-D wants, while encouraging importation of a predator class of men not so inclined. The end result will be the abandonment of Christianity by the men lied too, they will return to European pre Christian barbarism. One can see it already in young men.

    The only way out is a new Christian revival of the west, which does not embrace pagan barbarism but which rejects the traitorous teachings of a eunuch class of ministers, priests and religious leaders who have gone as far off the mark as their Jewish brethren did around 29 AD. Which will not happen with out a man like Franco, Pinochet or Salazar in charge. Part of that will mean the end of the constitutional system as we know it, likely until such time as the traditional social structure that allowed for real representative democracy to exist is reestablished. Meaning folks having sufficient inward morality and self-control that they can be trusted with power. That takes a generation and will involve most women losing the vote.

    The alternative is a Brazil like corruption multi ethnic state dominated by elites with a veneer of representative rule that every one knows is false (like Mexico or the soviet union). That is the best one can hope for, and such a society will not last, as there is nothing to say such a society can maintain the level of technology the west has produced. far more likely is a period of absolute collapse, if the left gets its way and manages to impose some kind of Stalinist/Maoist state on their way to a supposed utopia. That will result in the US going thorough what Russia did in 1917 to 1957 or China from 1948 to 1978. 30 to 40 years of pure hell.

    In 500 years if the Christian west still exists they will look back on this much as we look on the collapse of Judah from 29 to 135 AD or the collapse of the catholic hegemony between 1290 to 1648. Pure societal insanity.

    I regret that I have but one ‘agree’ to lavish on this comment.

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  61. dr kill says:
    @Barnard
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    She is correct that cultural changes have as much to do with the marriage rate as economic factors. Although, I think another factor in the fracking boom is that everyone understood from the beginning that it was a boom and that there would be a bust. I don't know had badly these women want to marry men who are making $75 an hour today, but could lose their jobs at any moment.

    Do you know any young women from oil patch towns? Ever seen Officer and a Gentleman? Or Urban Cowboy?

    Read More
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  62. dr kill says:
    @countenance
    Let's be real.

    This is the real reason why the left hates fossil fuels. Not because of the environment, but because they give white cishet gentile men without ostentatious educational credentials the ability not only to make a good living and to sustain a household, but make more money than people with educational credentials make. It's a combination of jealousy, racial enmity and (because affordable family formation for white cishet gentiles correlates very strongly with two-party voting habits) partisan hysteria.

    Not only that, but the oil patch rewards traditional American behavior and punishes current ideals. Stay clean, be on time, work hard. Get paid. Dirty piss test and out you go. From 140k plus the bennies and half a year off to out on your ass. BP and RDS don’t play.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The oil industry has historically had less union trouble than, say, the coal industry.
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  63. @dr kill
    Not only that, but the oil patch rewards traditional American behavior and punishes current ideals. Stay clean, be on time, work hard. Get paid. Dirty piss test and out you go. From 140k plus the bennies and half a year off to out on your ass. BP and RDS don't play.

    The oil industry has historically had less union trouble than, say, the coal industry.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Maybe because the oil industry has always had the option of hiring foreign strikebreakers from Mexico. Appalachia was too far away from the US-Mexico border to make that a practical strategy, so workers had more clout.
    , @PiltdownMan
    I wonder if this is because the oil business is cyclical, and workers in it know that they need to make hay while the sun shines, before the next bust and unemployment, a few years down the road.

    A well paid worker during an oil boom is hardly likely to jeopardize his employment by making efforts on the side to organize a union—especially if he understands that his efforts might be meaningless in the medium term, when everyone is going to be unemployed, anyway.
    , @Magyar
    Steve,

    You gotta read this gem of an article -- high cost of real estate and entirely unaffordable family formation for Millennials is being re-branded, packaged and sold as hipster communal living.

    https://theringer.com/communal-living-tech-nook-welive-common-7175783ac5c4

    "Say goodbye to your one-bedroom apartment, meet your new housemates, and get ready to share a kitchen. The communal living moment may finally be upon us."

    The American Marketing Machine at its finest!
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  64. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Sam the Man
    It seems to this older chap that a lot has to do with the absolute loss of a Christian world view in the west, both outside of conventional religious communities and also within the same.

    The societal model used to be, and was supported by law, that the husband was the head of the household. Children outside of marriage was punished both by poverty and loss of social standing to women and men both (but mostly to women). while not best for each individual's immediate desires, it produced stable children and rewarded positive behavior. This was the Christian world view. seemed to work for the last 500 years when the west grew to dominate the world and basically was the most successful social pattern seen in that time.

    Starting in the 1870s with various acts that removed the position of the husband as the head of household under the law, things started to change. Intellectuals thought they had that G-d like ability to engineer something better, believing they could undo human faults and create utopia.

    It came to a head between 1962 and 1972, with the male-female egalitarian acts, abortion on demand, no fault divorce, feminism breeding resentment towards men and the pill, which eliminate done of the primary limits of female sexual activity, as well as apparently affecting their mental state by manipulation of hormones. That and the continued state of law which in essence which almost never requires females to face the consequences of bad decisions.

    The end result was a society that in essence rejected the last 2000 years of Christian social order. The results 2 generations later are pretty clear: disaster with no clear path back to a functional society.

    There does not seem to be a way to go back within the framework of existing institutions. The various sects of Christianity, form mainstream protestant, catholic and most charismatic faiths seem to pretty much go along with the egalitarian model. They are in many ways furthering the emasculation of the men of the west, teaching them that modest stillness, submission and humility is what G-D wants, while encouraging importation of a predator class of men not so inclined. The end result will be the abandonment of Christianity by the men lied too, they will return to European pre Christian barbarism. One can see it already in young men.

    The only way out is a new Christian revival of the west, which does not embrace pagan barbarism but which rejects the traitorous teachings of a eunuch class of ministers, priests and religious leaders who have gone as far off the mark as their Jewish brethren did around 29 AD. Which will not happen with out a man like Franco, Pinochet or Salazar in charge. Part of that will mean the end of the constitutional system as we know it, likely until such time as the traditional social structure that allowed for real representative democracy to exist is reestablished. Meaning folks having sufficient inward morality and self-control that they can be trusted with power. That takes a generation and will involve most women losing the vote.

    The alternative is a Brazil like corruption multi ethnic state dominated by elites with a veneer of representative rule that every one knows is false (like Mexico or the soviet union). That is the best one can hope for, and such a society will not last, as there is nothing to say such a society can maintain the level of technology the west has produced. far more likely is a period of absolute collapse, if the left gets its way and manages to impose some kind of Stalinist/Maoist state on their way to a supposed utopia. That will result in the US going thorough what Russia did in 1917 to 1957 or China from 1948 to 1978. 30 to 40 years of pure hell.

    In 500 years if the Christian west still exists they will look back on this much as we look on the collapse of Judah from 29 to 135 AD or the collapse of the catholic hegemony between 1290 to 1648. Pure societal insanity.

    Total agreement. The voices which are thought of as discredited are actually vindicated.

    Read More
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  65. Here’s how you decrease the illegitimacy rate.

    -Stop alimony
    -Stop child support
    -Stop welfare (TANF, food stamps, subsidized housing) to unmarried mothers

    I guarantee illegitimacy would collapse overnight.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Selvar
    I don’t understand where social conservatives get this idea that the welfare state is the primary cause of illegitimacy. Colombia has an illegitimacy rate well over 80%. How much welfare to single mothers do you think the Colombian state gives or is even capable of giving? In the U.S., 1990s welfare reform did not lead to a significant drop in single motherhood. Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.
    , @InvestInCatFood
    Also add, the obesity epidemic and female promiscuity. If you're a relatively high-income guy, would you really want to wife up a tubby skank?
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  66. @Steve Sailer
    The oil industry has historically had less union trouble than, say, the coal industry.

    Maybe because the oil industry has always had the option of hiring foreign strikebreakers from Mexico. Appalachia was too far away from the US-Mexico border to make that a practical strategy, so workers had more clout.

    Read More
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  67. Selvar says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    Here's how you decrease the illegitimacy rate.

    -Stop alimony
    -Stop child support
    -Stop welfare (TANF, food stamps, subsidized housing) to unmarried mothers

    I guarantee illegitimacy would collapse overnight.

    I don’t understand where social conservatives get this idea that the welfare state is the primary cause of illegitimacy. Colombia has an illegitimacy rate well over 80%. How much welfare to single mothers do you think the Colombian state gives or is even capable of giving? In the U.S., 1990s welfare reform did not lead to a significant drop in single motherhood. Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.
     
    Yep. It's mostly about morality (or the complete lack thereof) and the selfishness and increasing immaturity of women.

    Economic tinkering is not going to save western society. Only religion can do that. Which religion? It seems most likely it will be Islam.

    Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction. They have encouraged every form of depravity, self-indulgence and self-destructiveness. They are mortal enemies of western civilisation.

    Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.
    , @Triumph104
    Agree. The book Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood before Marriage states that poor women have children out of wedlock because of the high status of motherhood, wanting someone to love, and not trusting the men they are involved with.

    https://youtu.be/1CJwQWyCFu4

    Cultural differences: Until the 1960s, blacks had a higher marriage rate than whites, however, blacks also had a relatively high percentage of out of wedlock births. For example, sprinter Jesse Owens had a child in 1932 but did not marry until 1935. Sprinter Wilma Rudolph had a child in 1958 and did not marry until 1961, after the Rome Olympics. Two of Aretha Franklin's four children were born out of wedlock. The daughter of a minister, Franklin had her first child at 14 and the fathers of her first two children have never been identified.
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  68. @Steve Sailer
    The oil industry has historically had less union trouble than, say, the coal industry.

    I wonder if this is because the oil business is cyclical, and workers in it know that they need to make hay while the sun shines, before the next bust and unemployment, a few years down the road.

    A well paid worker during an oil boom is hardly likely to jeopardize his employment by making efforts on the side to organize a union—especially if he understands that his efforts might be meaningless in the medium term, when everyone is going to be unemployed, anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In the UK, the most notorious anti-fracking gadfly is the barren doe bastard daughter of a Kink and a Pretender, Natalie Ray Hynde. Her YouTube rants are so chock full of unmitigated Sailerity I have to believe Steve just refuses to spend the five minutes it would take to look through her YT channel. Otherwise he'd probably write his next book about them.
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  69. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Selvar
    I don’t understand where social conservatives get this idea that the welfare state is the primary cause of illegitimacy. Colombia has an illegitimacy rate well over 80%. How much welfare to single mothers do you think the Colombian state gives or is even capable of giving? In the U.S., 1990s welfare reform did not lead to a significant drop in single motherhood. Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.

    Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.

    Yep. It’s mostly about morality (or the complete lack thereof) and the selfishness and increasing immaturity of women.

    Economic tinkering is not going to save western society. Only religion can do that. Which religion? It seems most likely it will be Islam.

    Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction. They have encouraged every form of depravity, self-indulgence and self-destructiveness. They are mortal enemies of western civilisation.

    Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    "Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago."

    It was still a force for civilisation in the UK up to at least the 1970s.

    "Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction."

    With respect, that's nonsense. When capitalism was constrained by Christianity it was more human - a Victorian factory hand at least had his Sundays, and Christians made better and more effective social workers than Marxist-indoctrinated practical atheists. It's the post-Christian west where Sunday is just another day for getting and spending. I think you're missing a factor here.

    (It is possible to argue that 20thC Christian 'niceness' and naivete has led western society to destruction, but that's a different argument)

    , @Selvar
    Before allying with Islam as a Western traditionalist, keep in mind that it is probably going to be a one way trip. A society can go from capitalist to communist and vice versa. From pagan to Christian to secularist and back around again. Islam seems to be much more permanent. Islam has almost completed its centuries-long genocide of Christianity and other competing faiths in the Middle East. I am not a practicing Christian, and even I find that terrifying. Stalinist communism never had the power to fully stomp out Christianity and it was no push over. Islam is totalitarianism combined with transcendence.
    , @Triumph104
    Christianity is problematic because belief ensures salvation. Once you give belief such power, chaos ensues. Now many Christians believe that homosexuality, abortion, divorce, and out of wedlock births are OK. Soon people will believe that pedaphilia and bestiality are OK.

    In the 1990s Canada was blocking shipments of books to lesbian bookstores (LINK ) now bestiality is legal in Canada as long as there is no penetration (LINK).

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  70. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @PiltdownMan
    I wonder if this is because the oil business is cyclical, and workers in it know that they need to make hay while the sun shines, before the next bust and unemployment, a few years down the road.

    A well paid worker during an oil boom is hardly likely to jeopardize his employment by making efforts on the side to organize a union—especially if he understands that his efforts might be meaningless in the medium term, when everyone is going to be unemployed, anyway.

    In the UK, the most notorious anti-fracking gadfly is the barren doe bastard daughter of a Kink and a Pretender, Natalie Ray Hynde. Her YouTube rants are so chock full of unmitigated Sailerity I have to believe Steve just refuses to spend the five minutes it would take to look through her YT channel. Otherwise he’d probably write his next book about them.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    chock full of unmitigated Sailerity
     
    I like that!
    , @Anonymous
    Heisenberg strikes again. Miss Hynde fille has taken down her YouTube channel.
    She probably got tipped off that nasty right wingers were onto it.


    Fortunately I downloaded a few of the best of her rants.

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  71. @dfordoom

    Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.
     
    Yep. It's mostly about morality (or the complete lack thereof) and the selfishness and increasing immaturity of women.

    Economic tinkering is not going to save western society. Only religion can do that. Which religion? It seems most likely it will be Islam.

    Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction. They have encouraged every form of depravity, self-indulgence and self-destructiveness. They are mortal enemies of western civilisation.

    Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.

    “Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.”

    It was still a force for civilisation in the UK up to at least the 1970s.

    “Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction.”

    With respect, that’s nonsense. When capitalism was constrained by Christianity it was more human – a Victorian factory hand at least had his Sundays, and Christians made better and more effective social workers than Marxist-indoctrinated practical atheists. It’s the post-Christian west where Sunday is just another day for getting and spending. I think you’re missing a factor here.

    (It is possible to argue that 20thC Christian ‘niceness’ and naivete has led western society to destruction, but that’s a different argument)

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    (It is possible to argue that 20thC Christian ‘niceness’ and naivete has led western society to destruction, but that’s a different argument)
     
    Not just niceness and naivete but also weakness and moral cowardice.
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  72. @Sam the Man
    It seems to this older chap that a lot has to do with the absolute loss of a Christian world view in the west, both outside of conventional religious communities and also within the same.

    The societal model used to be, and was supported by law, that the husband was the head of the household. Children outside of marriage was punished both by poverty and loss of social standing to women and men both (but mostly to women). while not best for each individual's immediate desires, it produced stable children and rewarded positive behavior. This was the Christian world view. seemed to work for the last 500 years when the west grew to dominate the world and basically was the most successful social pattern seen in that time.

    Starting in the 1870s with various acts that removed the position of the husband as the head of household under the law, things started to change. Intellectuals thought they had that G-d like ability to engineer something better, believing they could undo human faults and create utopia.

    It came to a head between 1962 and 1972, with the male-female egalitarian acts, abortion on demand, no fault divorce, feminism breeding resentment towards men and the pill, which eliminate done of the primary limits of female sexual activity, as well as apparently affecting their mental state by manipulation of hormones. That and the continued state of law which in essence which almost never requires females to face the consequences of bad decisions.

    The end result was a society that in essence rejected the last 2000 years of Christian social order. The results 2 generations later are pretty clear: disaster with no clear path back to a functional society.

    There does not seem to be a way to go back within the framework of existing institutions. The various sects of Christianity, form mainstream protestant, catholic and most charismatic faiths seem to pretty much go along with the egalitarian model. They are in many ways furthering the emasculation of the men of the west, teaching them that modest stillness, submission and humility is what G-D wants, while encouraging importation of a predator class of men not so inclined. The end result will be the abandonment of Christianity by the men lied too, they will return to European pre Christian barbarism. One can see it already in young men.

    The only way out is a new Christian revival of the west, which does not embrace pagan barbarism but which rejects the traitorous teachings of a eunuch class of ministers, priests and religious leaders who have gone as far off the mark as their Jewish brethren did around 29 AD. Which will not happen with out a man like Franco, Pinochet or Salazar in charge. Part of that will mean the end of the constitutional system as we know it, likely until such time as the traditional social structure that allowed for real representative democracy to exist is reestablished. Meaning folks having sufficient inward morality and self-control that they can be trusted with power. That takes a generation and will involve most women losing the vote.

    The alternative is a Brazil like corruption multi ethnic state dominated by elites with a veneer of representative rule that every one knows is false (like Mexico or the soviet union). That is the best one can hope for, and such a society will not last, as there is nothing to say such a society can maintain the level of technology the west has produced. far more likely is a period of absolute collapse, if the left gets its way and manages to impose some kind of Stalinist/Maoist state on their way to a supposed utopia. That will result in the US going thorough what Russia did in 1917 to 1957 or China from 1948 to 1978. 30 to 40 years of pure hell.

    In 500 years if the Christian west still exists they will look back on this much as we look on the collapse of Judah from 29 to 135 AD or the collapse of the catholic hegemony between 1290 to 1648. Pure societal insanity.

    Peter Hitchens thinks we are at a time when a great spiritual leader could arise, in a parallel to the UK religious revival of the Wesleys, and is worried that he might be a Muslim when he does arise.

    On the other hand, in the 18th century there wasn’t a tightly controlled media and educational propaganda machine, and government didn’t have an “internet panopticon” or “hate speech” laws.

    “Clergy attacked them in sermons and in print, and at times mobs attacked them. Wesley and his followers continued to work among the neglected and needy. They were denounced as promulgators of strange doctrines, fomenters of religious disturbances; as blind fanatics, leading people astray, claiming miraculous gifts, attacking the clergy of the Church of England, and trying to re-establish Catholicism.”

    Wesley was an ordained Anglican priest, and that was the treatment he got from his fellow-Anglicans. A new Wesley, be he Christian or Muslim, would get more, and worse, from our current elites.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Peter Hitchens thinks we are at a time when a great spiritual leader could arise, in a parallel to the UK religious revival of the Wesleys, and is worried that he might be a Muslim when he does arise.
     
    That seems quite likely. I don't think the current spiritual void can continue indefinitely. Atheism has so clearly failed as a belief system, leading only to emptiness and despair.

    Wesley was an ordained Anglican priest, and that was the treatment he got from his fellow-Anglicans.
     
    A Christian revival is very unlikely. As you've correctly observed a true Christian spiritual leader would be savaged by the Christian establishment, and by the majority of Christians who have effectively abandoned their faith.

    A new Wesley, be he Christian or Muslim, would get more, and worse, from our current elites.
     
    A Muslim Wesley would put the elites in a quandary. Their first instinct would be to support him, that first instinct being motivated by their deep and abiding hatred of Christianity. And the Outer Party members, the media and academic types, would be tempted initially to be supportive as well. And quite a few of those Outer Party types might actually join up.

    If such a leader really looked like a threat to the elites they'd naturally try to destroy him but this would be very much more difficult than would be the case with a Christian leader. Such a leader might be able to establish a real power base before the elites recognised the seriousness of the threat.
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  73. NOTA says:
    @ben tillman
    From the Houston Chronicle article:

    Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
     
    That's laughable. If politicians repeal welfare benefits for unwed mothers, the "trend" will end immediately.

    I doubt it. The perverse family-breaking incentives of our public assistance programs were one factor in getting us here, but only one. Plenty of people who don’t need public assistance are shacking up with girlfriend of the month, like the guys getting well-paid in the oil boom they were looking at in this study.

    Read More
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  74. NOTA says:
    @James Bowery
    Male to female ratio of these boom towns may be a factor.

    If it were just lack of available women, we wouldn’t have seen an increase in unwed pregnancies.

    Read More
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  75. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anonymous Nephew
    "Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago."

    It was still a force for civilisation in the UK up to at least the 1970s.

    "Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction."

    With respect, that's nonsense. When capitalism was constrained by Christianity it was more human - a Victorian factory hand at least had his Sundays, and Christians made better and more effective social workers than Marxist-indoctrinated practical atheists. It's the post-Christian west where Sunday is just another day for getting and spending. I think you're missing a factor here.

    (It is possible to argue that 20thC Christian 'niceness' and naivete has led western society to destruction, but that's a different argument)

    (It is possible to argue that 20thC Christian ‘niceness’ and naivete has led western society to destruction, but that’s a different argument)

    Not just niceness and naivete but also weakness and moral cowardice.

    Read More
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  76. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anonymous Nephew
    Peter Hitchens thinks we are at a time when a great spiritual leader could arise, in a parallel to the UK religious revival of the Wesleys, and is worried that he might be a Muslim when he does arise.

    On the other hand, in the 18th century there wasn't a tightly controlled media and educational propaganda machine, and government didn't have an "internet panopticon" or "hate speech" laws.


    "Clergy attacked them in sermons and in print, and at times mobs attacked them. Wesley and his followers continued to work among the neglected and needy. They were denounced as promulgators of strange doctrines, fomenters of religious disturbances; as blind fanatics, leading people astray, claiming miraculous gifts, attacking the clergy of the Church of England, and trying to re-establish Catholicism."

    Wesley was an ordained Anglican priest, and that was the treatment he got from his fellow-Anglicans. A new Wesley, be he Christian or Muslim, would get more, and worse, from our current elites.

    Peter Hitchens thinks we are at a time when a great spiritual leader could arise, in a parallel to the UK religious revival of the Wesleys, and is worried that he might be a Muslim when he does arise.

    That seems quite likely. I don’t think the current spiritual void can continue indefinitely. Atheism has so clearly failed as a belief system, leading only to emptiness and despair.

    Wesley was an ordained Anglican priest, and that was the treatment he got from his fellow-Anglicans.

    A Christian revival is very unlikely. As you’ve correctly observed a true Christian spiritual leader would be savaged by the Christian establishment, and by the majority of Christians who have effectively abandoned their faith.

    A new Wesley, be he Christian or Muslim, would get more, and worse, from our current elites.

    A Muslim Wesley would put the elites in a quandary. Their first instinct would be to support him, that first instinct being motivated by their deep and abiding hatred of Christianity. And the Outer Party members, the media and academic types, would be tempted initially to be supportive as well. And quite a few of those Outer Party types might actually join up.

    If such a leader really looked like a threat to the elites they’d naturally try to destroy him but this would be very much more difficult than would be the case with a Christian leader. Such a leader might be able to establish a real power base before the elites recognised the seriousness of the threat.

    Read More
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  77. res says:
    @Anonymous
    In the UK, the most notorious anti-fracking gadfly is the barren doe bastard daughter of a Kink and a Pretender, Natalie Ray Hynde. Her YouTube rants are so chock full of unmitigated Sailerity I have to believe Steve just refuses to spend the five minutes it would take to look through her YT channel. Otherwise he'd probably write his next book about them.

    chock full of unmitigated Sailerity

    I like that!

    Read More
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  78. Magyar says:
    @Steve Sailer
    The oil industry has historically had less union trouble than, say, the coal industry.

    Steve,

    You gotta read this gem of an article — high cost of real estate and entirely unaffordable family formation for Millennials is being re-branded, packaged and sold as hipster communal living.

    https://theringer.com/communal-living-tech-nook-welive-common-7175783ac5c4

    “Say goodbye to your one-bedroom apartment, meet your new housemates, and get ready to share a kitchen. The communal living moment may finally be upon us.”

    The American Marketing Machine at its finest!

    Read More
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  79. NOTA says:
    @Trelane
    Here's an idea: why don't we require that the surname "Bastardson" be applied to all children born out-of-wedlock? That's what the county registrar's birth certificate says and no, there's no changing your name. Now 72% of all black people have the surname "Bastardson". And 32% of white people share this name as in "Destiny Bastardson" of row 41 in the Harper trailer park. Might not this one minor detail change behavior among this country's bastardy? The knowledge that your illigitimate child would be known by his very name?

    Maybe a different name in each part of the country–Snow, Sand, etc.

    Read More
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  80. Selvar says:
    @dfordoom

    Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.
     
    Yep. It's mostly about morality (or the complete lack thereof) and the selfishness and increasing immaturity of women.

    Economic tinkering is not going to save western society. Only religion can do that. Which religion? It seems most likely it will be Islam.

    Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction. They have encouraged every form of depravity, self-indulgence and self-destructiveness. They are mortal enemies of western civilisation.

    Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.

    Before allying with Islam as a Western traditionalist, keep in mind that it is probably going to be a one way trip. A society can go from capitalist to communist and vice versa. From pagan to Christian to secularist and back around again. Islam seems to be much more permanent. Islam has almost completed its centuries-long genocide of Christianity and other competing faiths in the Middle East. I am not a practicing Christian, and even I find that terrifying. Stalinist communism never had the power to fully stomp out Christianity and it was no push over. Islam is totalitarianism combined with transcendence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Before allying with Islam as a Western traditionalist, keep in mind that it is probably going to be a one way trip.
     
    I've never suggested it was a good idea for Western traditionalists to ally with Islam. I think it may happen, but predicting a possibility is not an endorsement. I think it's likely that it will rain this afternoon. I'd prefer that it didn't but I accept rain as a possibility.

    Western traditionalists have few good options at the moment.

    Whether they're in alliance with Western traditionalists or not I think an Islamic future is highly likely. Again that's not an endorsement, just a recognition of a possibility.
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  81. @Selvar
    I don’t understand where social conservatives get this idea that the welfare state is the primary cause of illegitimacy. Colombia has an illegitimacy rate well over 80%. How much welfare to single mothers do you think the Colombian state gives or is even capable of giving? In the U.S., 1990s welfare reform did not lead to a significant drop in single motherhood. Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.

    Agree. The book Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood before Marriage states that poor women have children out of wedlock because of the high status of motherhood, wanting someone to love, and not trusting the men they are involved with.

    Cultural differences: Until the 1960s, blacks had a higher marriage rate than whites, however, blacks also had a relatively high percentage of out of wedlock births. For example, sprinter Jesse Owens had a child in 1932 but did not marry until 1935. Sprinter Wilma Rudolph had a child in 1958 and did not marry until 1961, after the Rome Olympics. Two of Aretha Franklin’s four children were born out of wedlock. The daughter of a minister, Franklin had her first child at 14 and the fathers of her first two children have never been identified.

    Read More
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  82. @dfordoom

    Single mothers don’t choose to have kids out of wedlock because it’s profitable. It’s (mostly) about culture and genetic predisposition, not welfare.
     
    Yep. It's mostly about morality (or the complete lack thereof) and the selfishness and increasing immaturity of women.

    Economic tinkering is not going to save western society. Only religion can do that. Which religion? It seems most likely it will be Islam.

    Christianity and capitalism have been the twin evils that have led western society to destruction. They have encouraged every form of depravity, self-indulgence and self-destructiveness. They are mortal enemies of western civilisation.

    Christianity ceased to be a positive force for civilisation about a century ago.

    Christianity is problematic because belief ensures salvation. Once you give belief such power, chaos ensues. Now many Christians believe that homosexuality, abortion, divorce, and out of wedlock births are OK. Soon people will believe that pedaphilia and bestiality are OK.

    In the 1990s Canada was blocking shipments of books to lesbian bookstores (LINK ) now bestiality is legal in Canada as long as there is no penetration (LINK).

    Read More
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  83. @JohnnyWalker123
    Here's how you decrease the illegitimacy rate.

    -Stop alimony
    -Stop child support
    -Stop welfare (TANF, food stamps, subsidized housing) to unmarried mothers

    I guarantee illegitimacy would collapse overnight.

    Also add, the obesity epidemic and female promiscuity. If you’re a relatively high-income guy, would you really want to wife up a tubby skank?

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  84. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Selvar
    Before allying with Islam as a Western traditionalist, keep in mind that it is probably going to be a one way trip. A society can go from capitalist to communist and vice versa. From pagan to Christian to secularist and back around again. Islam seems to be much more permanent. Islam has almost completed its centuries-long genocide of Christianity and other competing faiths in the Middle East. I am not a practicing Christian, and even I find that terrifying. Stalinist communism never had the power to fully stomp out Christianity and it was no push over. Islam is totalitarianism combined with transcendence.

    Before allying with Islam as a Western traditionalist, keep in mind that it is probably going to be a one way trip.

    I’ve never suggested it was a good idea for Western traditionalists to ally with Islam. I think it may happen, but predicting a possibility is not an endorsement. I think it’s likely that it will rain this afternoon. I’d prefer that it didn’t but I accept rain as a possibility.

    Western traditionalists have few good options at the moment.

    Whether they’re in alliance with Western traditionalists or not I think an Islamic future is highly likely. Again that’s not an endorsement, just a recognition of a possibility.

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  85. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    In the UK, the most notorious anti-fracking gadfly is the barren doe bastard daughter of a Kink and a Pretender, Natalie Ray Hynde. Her YouTube rants are so chock full of unmitigated Sailerity I have to believe Steve just refuses to spend the five minutes it would take to look through her YT channel. Otherwise he'd probably write his next book about them.

    Heisenberg strikes again. Miss Hynde fille has taken down her YouTube channel.
    She probably got tipped off that nasty right wingers were onto it.

    Fortunately I downloaded a few of the best of her rants.

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  86. Flip says:
    @Judah Benjamin Hur
    The majority of Latin American children are now born out of wedlock.

    Latin America is now the region that has the highest percentage of children born out of wedlock. In Colombia, 84 percent of all children are born to unmarried mothers. Argentina, Mexico, Chile and other countries throughout the region have similar numbers, with well over half of all children born outside wedlock.


    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/12/14/459098779/all-across-latin-america-unwed-mothers-are-now-the-norm

     

    I'm almost 50 and the world has changed completely in my lifetime. It's nuts.

    How is the Catholic Church allowing this?

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