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From WTOP:

Baltimore could surpass New York City in homicides

By The Associated Press
September 9, 2017 11:00 am

BALTIMORE (AP) — Baltimore could surpass New York City in homicides this year.

The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.

The key moments in why Baltimore was swept under by the Obama Administration’s pet Black Lives Matter movement but New York City wasn’t came in late 2014 and early 2015.

For awhile after that fat black guy selling contraband cigarettes died of a heart attack in Staten Island, it looked like New York City was going to go the way of St. Louis after Ferguson (August 2014). But then a BLM enthusiast murdered two NYPD officers in December 2014. The NYPD more or less mutinied against Mayor de Blasio turning their backs to him at the funeral, and the crime rate shot up. But then Hizzoner gave in, and Bill Bratton went back to running the NYPD the way he wanted.

After all, too many important people live in NYC to let leftists have their way with the place. New York let liberals take over criminal justice a half century ago, and nobody wants to make that mistake again.

In contrast, Baltimore’s murder rate kicked into overdrive with the Freddie Gray BLM riot of the spring of 2015 and, with a black political leadership in the city, hasn’t come down yet.

 
    []
  1. Mr. Anon says:

    Space to destroy.

    It’s an essential ingredient of Charm Harm City.

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  2. Tyrion says:

    Isn’t New York too expensive to have a lot of murders? Zone 1 in London is ridiculously safe to walk around in at any time of the day. It wasn’t not that long ago, but then house prices went up so that only people in very solid jobs could afford to live there.

    There are still a few pockets of council housing, lived in mostly by foreigners, but they are first generation types who mostly want to keep their heads down and they are not in sufficient concentration to create alienated neighbourhoods.

    Read More
  3. Flip says:

    The mayor of New York sounds like a communist.

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/mayor-de-bolshevik-15430.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @bomag

    ...the socialists of New York City would “love to have a very, very powerful government,” explained the mayor, “including a federal government, involved in directly addressing their day-to-day reality.”
     
    It seems to me that every practical aspect of a mainstream average citizen's life is already regulated and spoken for by the central authorities.

    I suspect deBlasio is excited about the prospect of all powerful central authorities killing their political opponents. He wants some of that juice.

    Now we know about what he dreams.
  4. Truth says:

    Obama has, now, been out of office since the 1st month of the year.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Sure, but his BLM still is paying dividends in all those nice black communities...
    , @bomag
    There is a lot of inertia in politics.
  5. Maj. Kong says:

    We will see changes when the Johns Hopkins doctors are exposed. Without the med school and hospital, Baltimore has nothing of national prominence despite being located in the middle of prime Northeast Corridor real estate.

    Read More
  6. Brabantian says: • Website

    There is half the story missing from the general approach of the Unz Review to all these matters

    Whatever the differences of blacks versus whites etc … the fact is nonetheless, that what is going on now, is half the result of the cabal oligarchy exploiting those differences, in order specifically to create social destruction

    Recognise that a large part of the ‘problem’ in America’s cities, is
    (a) A drug trade fostered by the US Deep State & government itself
    (b) A decades-long selling of perverted ‘role models’ for black people sold by Hollywood & media, from the ‘Blaxploitation films’ to the ‘Gangsta’ fetish, trading on the human inclination to imitate what is glamourised
    (c) A progressively escalating police & judicial mauling of average black people, leading to many black youth feeling that they have a high likelihood of getting arrested & going to jail even if innocent, so might as well have a little enjoyment before then ‘You’re gonna do the time, anyway, so why not commit the crime?’

    However true it is that there are large number of black criminals … it is also true that many blacks are convicted by kangaroo court false evidence & procedures in a wholly bogus USA prosecutorial system, where the ‘public defenders’ are under threat to railroad their clients in extortions, false evidence is common, other criminals are given ‘deals’ to give false witness, juries are selected for stupidity, etc … USA police & prosecutors even sometimes say, ‘If he didn’t do this crime, he probably did something, so it’s good he’s going to jail’

    It is very pleasing to the oligarchy, that the legions of white people financially mauled in kangaroo divorce & alimony court proceedings & general lawsuit extortions … do not think to make common cause with the blacks being railroaded into jail

    Remember that the oligarchy itself has a vested interest in increased crime & social conflict & hate amongst lower classes … lower & middle classes fearing & hating each other, is the ultimate distraction from the predations of the oligarchy

    The oligarchy also wants to both create social hate … and create stressful cognitive dissonance by making it illegal or career-dangerous to write or speak about what is happening … the oligarchs want whites to hate & fear blacks … not have them join to re-sort the oligarchy … Unz Review in part unintentionally helps the oligarchy, by focusing on the direct perpetrators of crime, not the oligarchs and media-purveyors who fostered & motivated the underclass to imitate the criminal role-models … for historical reasons blacks have been the most vulnerable to such an oligarch agenda … and the oligarch cabal has made full, evil, satanic use of that vulnerability

    Read More
    • Replies: @bomag

    ...lower & middle classes fearing & hating each other, is the ultimate distraction from the predations of the oligarchy
     
    I'm sure the oligarchs would be plenty happy to rule over a peaceful and contented populace.

    It is the People, and very much Black people (civil rights lawsuit, anyone?), who are calling and clamoring for more police and courts.
  7. Twinkie says:

    The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

    As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.

    Yes, but the salient comparison should be:

    Baltimore 400,000 blacks. BPD 3,300. 121 blacks per one police personnel.
    NYC 2,000,000 blacks. NYPD 36,000. 56 blacks per one police personnel.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates. So if the NYPD allocates police resources to balance crime-per-officer in each local district, then the African American districts must be much more heavily policed than in Baltimore. Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.
    , @Clark Westwood
    Yes. Another important point is that homicide =/= murder. (Except maybe in the addled mind of an AP hack.)
    , @I, Libertine
    The demographic differences between Baltimore and NYC are enormous. Just for starters, Baltimore is two-thirds black (almost all descendants of US slaves); NYC is one-quarter black, largely Caribbean. And NYC has virtually no white Protestants, which is weird for an American city, even in 2017. Trump is an anomaly.
    , @BB753
    NY has an insane number of policemen, uh policepersons.
  8. “After all, too many important people live in NYC to let leftists have their way with the place. New York let liberals take over criminal justice a half century ago, and nobody wants to make that mistake again.”

    Great point. Ancient, but relevant history in this regard: A few years after blacks burned down Detroit (1967 riots) they made Coleman Young mayor for 20 years, not a “mistake” rather a national catastrophe — a once great city now a third world hell hole. So it is now too with Baltimore, St. Louis, etc. etc. But like Steve said, too many white people in NYC (and Chicago for that matter) for the third world descent.

    See: http://fosterspeak.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-detroit-riots-of-1967-and-its.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @cynthia curran
    Maybe, New York City has higher crime than Anaheim. It has a lot more assaults. I bet in the next decade, the big cities with Latinos will outpaced those with blacks. New York City is also undesirable compared to San Diego, one of the most white big cities and SD has less crime, and higher income. NYC only has Wall Street and there is a movement back to the burbs which is kind of hitting NYC with young people.
  9. Yeah, street-level crime really got out of control during the eighties in NYC. But there was a yuge reason why things got so bad and got bad very fast in NYC.

    Up until December 31, 1983, while street-level crime was on the overall upswing in NYC, general mayhem would shoot to the moon on January 1, 1984. That was the day on which Benjamin Ward became the first Black NYC Police Commissioner. He would serve as NYPD PC until September, 1989, when he resigned in a hurry after his putative boss, Ed Koch, lost the Dem. primary to David Dinkins. During a period of almost six years, Ben Ward never spent one day even slightly sober in the PC job. Every day and in every way he kept himself as drunk as a skunk. Of course, crime shot up. Of course, NYPD line-employees started stealing everything that wasn’t nailed down & going into the drug business for themselves. I vividly remember a so-called “journalist” telling me once that the reason Ward couldn’t be fired – – – Ward was blind drunk in public again : during a Koch press conference, he starting shouting incoherently at reporters and lunged at the head of the NYC Fire Commissioner, who was a very meek fellow but wore a ridiculous looking wig – – – was that Ward was Black. Case closed as far as that so-called journalist was concerned.

    Long story short, the virulent NYPD corruption of Ward’s time only started to slowly recede by bare inches while Dinkins was Mayor, and only after a drug-dealing NYPD crew from Brooklyn tried to establish a nasty little narcotics sales operation in Suffolk County. NYPD cops had grown so brazen under Ward that they figured they could sling dope anywhere – – – even in out-of-town White neighborhoods and even after Ward had been long gone!

    Nowadays, Trump is finding out the hard way the simple fact that personnel is policy. He should have remembered the Ben Ward NYPD disaster when picking new people for his Administration.

    Read More
  10. @Twinkie

    The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

    As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.
     
    Yes, but the salient comparison should be:

    Baltimore 400,000 blacks. BPD 3,300. 121 blacks per one police personnel.
    NYC 2,000,000 blacks. NYPD 36,000. 56 blacks per one police personnel.

    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates. So if the NYPD allocates police resources to balance crime-per-officer in each local district, then the African American districts must be much more heavily policed than in Baltimore. Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    It's almost like New Yorkers want the most criminally inclined blacks to move out of New York City, so they go about trying to make rest of the country more poorly policed.
    , @Twinkie

    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates.
     
    Thanks. Of course it is a very CRUDE measure, but it is a very quick estimate of the two most important variables - the number of blacks and police presence.

    Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.
     
    Typical (elite) left-wing attitude: security for me, but not for thee.
  11. Gggg says:

    The murder rate…”with a black political leadership in the city, hasn’t come down yet.” But Confederate statues have “come down” quickly. What has the murder rate been since the statues were removed in the middle of the night?

    Read More
  12. @Twinkie

    The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

    As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.
     
    Yes, but the salient comparison should be:

    Baltimore 400,000 blacks. BPD 3,300. 121 blacks per one police personnel.
    NYC 2,000,000 blacks. NYPD 36,000. 56 blacks per one police personnel.

    Yes. Another important point is that homicide =/= murder. (Except maybe in the addled mind of an AP hack.)

    Read More
  13. Anon7 says:

    Baltimore has been running a social experiment for the past fifty years, white flight followed by black flight to jobs requiring higher cognitive capacity. The result is an inner city with a population that is ungovernable:

    Maryland’s big city, Baltimore, saw its population peak just short of a million in 1950. It has been declining for nearly half a century, 17% in the last twenty years alone. Today it numbers about 651,000. White flight followed by black has drained the city of inhabitants. As its population dwindled, Baltimore like many other Northern and Midwestern cities without significant recent foreign immigration became blacker. Today, Baltimore is 65% African American, and 32% non-Hispanic white…

    Baltimore is typical of many Midwestern and Northern cities, whose demographics were forever changed by the great black migration of the twentieth century. Not unexpectedly we found a cognitive discontinuity at the city line. Surprising, however, was its magnitude. Whereas suburban mean IQs (86 for blacks, 99 for whites) conform more or less to national norms, city IQs are dreadfully low. With a mean IQ of 76, inner-city blacks fall about 0.6 SD below the African American average nationally. More than a third have death-penalty immunity on grounds of mental retardation. The inner-city white mean of 86 is nearly a full standard deviation below the national white average. By this measure, whites fared worse than blacks. …

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/iq-equality-theres-more-in-baltimore-than-elsewhere/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ed
    Even if the white mean score of Baltimore city residents is true. I suspect not since there's been an influx of white professionals. They're no where near as violent as blacks in the city or even the suburbs.

    It is true Baltimore has a dysfunctional poor white population. Many are descendants of migrants from West Virginia ironically. If you ever drive along RT 1 in Baltimore on a summer day you'll see them hanging out on their stoops, several with mixed babies running around.
  14. George says:

    New York pays more police in retirement than to patrol our streets — yet pols do nothing to address our skyrocketing pension costs

    https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cop-out-4198.html

    Although NY State is said to have fully funded pensions, NYC is on a separate underfunded plan.

    Hat Tip PensionTsunami.com

    Read More
  15. Thorsted says:

    Jared Taylor from “American Renaissance” has made the claim that New York could reduce its police force with 80% without black due to their significant overrepresentation in many crimes in New York.

    Read More
    • Replies: @fitzGetty
    ... but then, there is the special Wall St '''over-representation issue''' to be managed too ...
    , @fitzGetty
    ... but then, there is the special Wall St '''over-representation issue''' to be managed too ...
  16. OT:

    Steve,

    If I didn’t know better, I’d say that this young lady was a fan of yours. Sadly, she’s being earnest. Regardless, this WaPo article is pure Steve-bait. It has blacks and real estate, though, unfortunately, I don’t think that it has no money down loans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/home-buying-while-black/2017/09/07/133e286a-8995-11e7-a50f-e0d4e6ec070a_story.html?utm_term=.0698d857315e#comments

    Even the Post commenters – who are hilariously PC true believers – are taking her to task. But, of course, they are upset that she sounds kind of racist, which is the root of all the world’s evils. Regardless, the contradictions and obviousness in her thinking is fun to see.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Flip
    Talk about going through life with a chip on your shoulder.
    , @AM

    But, of course, they are upset that she sounds kind of racist, which is the root of all the world’s evils.
     
    This has been a handy change since 1960 or so, because it means everyone can make as much money as they want, while boinking like crazy, and it's all virtuous. In fact, you can judge other people by the numbers of people that want to sleep with them and the amount of money in their bank account. And if they end up being losers who work blue collars jobs, they're completely disposable. We're meritocracy!

    In the dark ages, before racism was discovered as the real evil (TM), people had these crazy notions that the love of money was the root of all evil, that some loyalty was due to your fellow countrymen even if in your opinion they were trashy, and maybe sleeping around wasn't such a hot idea. But that was dark ages, unlike now.
  17. “Little Baltimore”… is that a neighborhood where all the ne’er-do-wells settled together?

    Read More
  18. @Twinkie

    The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

    As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.
     
    Yes, but the salient comparison should be:

    Baltimore 400,000 blacks. BPD 3,300. 121 blacks per one police personnel.
    NYC 2,000,000 blacks. NYPD 36,000. 56 blacks per one police personnel.

    The demographic differences between Baltimore and NYC are enormous. Just for starters, Baltimore is two-thirds black (almost all descendants of US slaves); NYC is one-quarter black, largely Caribbean. And NYC has virtually no white Protestants, which is weird for an American city, even in 2017. Trump is an anomaly.

    Read More
  19. Wilkey says:

    It would be interesting to compare how many blacks ages 18-24 Baltimore has vs. NYC and what the overall black unemployment rate is. The incarceration rate would be good to know, as well.

    I mean, New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they’ll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah’s homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas

    I mean, New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they’ll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah’s homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.
     
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?
    , @a reader
  20. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    For awhile after that fat black guy selling contraband cigarettes died of a heart attack in Staten Island, it looked like New York City was going to go the way of St. Louis after Ferguson (August 2014). But then a BLM enthusiast murdered two NYPD officers in December 2014.

    BLM had four months to plan the executions. Four whole months to get it right. And then the morons went and killed a Chinese cop and a Dominican cop. No dead whites at all. There is no limit to their stupid. How long would it have taken them to wait for some killable white cops?

    If they had only offed a white cop, Hillary could have been out there talking about institutional white cop racism like she did after Dallas. Just one dead white cop would have justified everything. But no. BLM had to off a yellow cop and a brown cop. Go figure.

    Read More
    • Replies: @fish

    There is no limit to their stupid.
     
    Hardly matters....they'll always get the MSM Mulligan!






    .........and we're on to other things!




    See......it's like it never happened.
  21. Stick says:

    The reason for this disparity of result is that NYC is in full bloom of gentrification while Baltimore and Fergusson are in full Transformation. There is money associated with gentrification. Not so much in Transformation, just easy votes.

    Read More
  22. Big Bill says:

    Don’t discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps’s car, let alone “run over” by it, but SJWs are still beating the “three killed by Nazis in Charlottesville” drum.

    Read More
    • Replies: @larry lurker
    Does anybody have a link to the original NBC News video or article where Heyer's mother mentions a heart attack? Screencaps, archived pages - anything?

    The fact that outlets like Media Matters are discussing the heart attack claim instead of just ignoring it leads me to believe that this really is just fake news. Happy to be proven wrong though.

    , @27 year old

    Don’t discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps’s car, let alone “run over” by it, but SJWs are still beating the “three killed by Nazis in Charlottes
     
    As per one of our esteemed jewish commenters, this is anti-semitism. No shit. An isteve regular commenter said it was anti-semetic to discuss the obese heather hyer's cause of death
  23. Sajmon says:

    “New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards.”

    What about other crimes? The practice of manufacturing artificially low crime rates increased substantially after 2002 under Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his police commissioner Raymond Kelly.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eli-b-silverman/low-crime-rates-nypd-eli-b-silverman-john-a-eterno_b_1772489.html

    https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/files/justice%20quarterly%20article%20Eterno%20Verma%20Silverman.pdf

    Read More
  24. res says:

    Ron presented a graphic of crime correlation with %black for cities over 250k in his 2013 race and crime article: http://www.unz.com/runz/race-and-crime-in-america/

    Focusing on homicides and comparing across races really drives the point home:

    Has anyone updated that data to include post-Ferguson effect numbers?

    Has anyone used that data to create a scatterplot of murder rate vs. %black by city? It would be interesting to see how much of an outlier both Baltimore and NYC are.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    We already have directly measured black murder rates. The point of Ron's charts there was our data for Hispanics was weak because they are sometimes counted as white in crime stats.

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.
    , @Anonymous
    Nearly all academians would consider that 0.8 correlation to be a strong positive correlation if you left off what was being correlated.

    Interesting that there is a negative correlation for whites, but it makes sense, given the idea of a whitetopia.

    Cue Occam's Butterknife by Tiny Duck, Nick Diaz, Truth and Corvinus in 5,4,3,2,1...
  25. @Wilkey
    It would be interesting to compare how many blacks ages 18-24 Baltimore has vs. NYC and what the overall black unemployment rate is. The incarceration rate would be good to know, as well.

    I mean, New York's murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they'll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah's homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.

    I mean, New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they’ll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah’s homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.

    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    Patterson and Newark between them have a population 1/20 th that of the City of New York, so you're not going to reduce your homicide rate much by deporting troublesome characters there. There isn't much of a secular trend in homicide rates in either locale over the last 15 years. (The worst year in Paterson had 8 homicides more than the median year; the worst in Newark 21 murders more). There hasn't been much of a noticeable trend in Jersey City, the Oranges, Irvington, or Elizabeth (bar a recent spike in East Orange, co-incident with the city replacing their quite effective mayor). In Mount Vernon and Yonkers, homicide has (if anything) been on a declining trajectory.
    , @Hibernian
    "In Paterson that's just the way things were...."

    "The charge was murder one
    And guess who testified
    Bello and Bramley
    And they both lied
    The newspapers
    Went along for the ride..."
  26. Ed says:

    NYC is lucky that American blacks can’t swing elections there. They can in Chicago & Baltimore so the politicians pander to them with soft policing, the results are predictable. On topic Wilmington DE has the highest rate of teen murders in the country.

    http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/crime/2017/09/08/our-babies-killing-each-other/100135370/

    Kids are more likely to be shot in Wilmington than any other U.S. city.
    Arguments start on Facebook and Twitter between young people age 12 to 17 and are frequently settled with guns. They are targeted for seemingly innocuous insults on social media about a girl, a family member or a pair of sneakers. One shooting often begets another and another.
    “Every time you go outside, you have to think about it: Is somebody gonna shoot you today? Are you gonna get robbed today?” asked a 17-year-old who has lost a brother and a best friend to the city’s gun violence. “Is this gonna be the last time you see your mom today? And nobody wants to say nothing.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wilkey
    "NYC is lucky that American blacks can’t swing elections there."

    I thought de Blasio was the black candidate (snickers)?

    Seriously, though, it seems like NYC has figured out how to downplay the importance of the black vote even though they're ~25% of the population (and, given NYC's large immigrant population, probably a higher % of voters). NYC has a smarter population of whites than lots of other cities that is better at faking leftwing platitudes while willing to do what needs to be done, when necessary. They may have doomed the country as a whole with their stand on immigration, etc., but they are damn good at holding on to what is theirs. They put the Ku Klux Klan to shame.
  27. asf says:

    Steve,

    There is a chart that shows the % of black children born to unwed mothers rising from 20% in 1965 to 75% today.

    Are there crime statistics for pre-1965 that could be properly compared with those today? Curious if the per capita crime rates were also lower pre-1965 or not.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Currahee
    Pre 1965 blacks were segregated, socially isolated and closely policed.

    No thug/rap culture, black movie presence was minimal, 1 0r 2 on television (church lady types: i.e. Julia), race records were a small industry fraction.

    In fact, hardly any mention of them at all in popular media.

    Invisible so to speak.
  28. a reader says:
    @Wilkey
    It would be interesting to compare how many blacks ages 18-24 Baltimore has vs. NYC and what the overall black unemployment rate is. The incarceration rate would be good to know, as well.

    I mean, New York's murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they'll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah's homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.

    Wilmington DE, mentioned in Ed’s comment at 4:38 pm, has a homicide rate of 39.5 per 100,000 residents, which is ten times the national average.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    I find it amazing how hard and fast Wilmington has gone downhill in a decade.

    The cancer keeps spreading south in Delaware and metastazing. Dover is seeing people killed on a regular basis now, where even five years ago it would be a week long news story.
  29. The assertion that the reason why Baltimore’s murder count exceeds New York’s is somehow due to the Africanization of the Baltimore ruling class is appalling and rude. It may be be correct, but it is shocking. After all, it’s 2017 for Pete’s sake! The person who suggested that should be cut off from ale for an hour or two.

    Here is something even more rude and appalling: The Blacks in Baltimore may be more of the “bluegummer” African type that indicates the non-existence of White ancestry. Perhaps the New York Blacks have a civilizing amount of White blood that renders them less prone to murderous violence than does the pure sub-Saharan West African Negroid type that is still found in abundance in the Mississippi River region and the Black Belt of the Southern United States.

    I believe Baltimore, although only 50 miles or so from the Mason-Dixon line, has more pure-blooded Southern “bluegummer” Blacks than does New York. Baltimore used to mean good pitching and a 3-run homer, now it means Blacks murdering every damn thing in sight.

    Stay away from Camden, New Jersey and Camden Yards baseball park in Baltimore — it’s good advice folks!

    Read More
  30. Lot says:

    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She’d need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA’s office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don’t think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?
    , @Lot
    Wow, Zuck's foundation has hired a dream team of presidential campaign consultants. Including Ken Mehlman, the guy who ran the last GOP campaign that won the most votes (and the only one since 1988). These dudes will all be salivating at the idea of running the most expensive political campaign in world history, and against "fascist" DJT, and all telling Zuck he will win if he runs and slanting the polls they take to encourage him further.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/mark-zuckerberg-could-be-running-for-president-in-2020.html

    I have no clue with the general, but I think Zuck is way undervalued for the Dem primary. He and Cuomo are the only white guys under 75 who are portential candidates. And Cuomo is hated by a lot of Dem activists for helping the NYGOP keep control of the NY State Senate. His Wall Street/NYC base will also be split between Booker and Gillibrand, and Biden and Warren and Bernie are further NE candidates.

    So 6 potential candidates from the NE and only Zuck and Kamala for the whole rest of the USA.

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.
    , @Flip
    I saw a quote from her defending the kangaroo court college rape trials, and she clearly doesn't believe in due process or the rights of the accused.
    , @AnotherDad
    Lot,

    OT, but good comment on Harris. Generally, don't want to run too far with these OT comments. But will say, I think this part you've got wrong:

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)
     
    Zuck strikes me as an extremely bad candidate against Trump. He's far too obviously who/what-interests the Democrat party actually represents, as opposed to their marketing piffle. And then just the atmospherics--running a billionaire egomaniac cancels out a couple of the best attacks on Trump.

    It's obvious who the Democrats should run to win--a smart non-rich white guy with a solid moderate record in office who can run against "Trump the loon". I.e. Bill Clinton. But they don't have a big store of those folks, that's not what the Democratic party is about.

    The person holding all the cards for the next election is Trump. If he can reign in his ego, but nonetheless hit hard to make ideological and legislative progress on a nationalist agenda--the wall, deporting illegals, mandatory E-verify, throttling Muslim immigration, infrastructure--he should be able to get himself re-elected. If he just rants and raves but doesn't accomplish anything, he'll be pretty easy to pick off.
    , @Rod1963
    Conservative for the Bay Area means she's pro open borders, pro sanctuary city and protecting illegal alien drug dealers. It's one city I'd love to see get hit by a North Korean nuke.

    She doesn't have a 12o IQ, maybe 110. I've listened to her speak, she comes off as a lightweight. For someone who is supposedly a hot shot DA. I wouldn't expect her to come off as a bimbo in a senate hearing, which she did.

    She's a AA baby raised in a bubble world of SF and it shows

    That doesn't bother me though.

    It's that she is a hard core racist and gun grabber. I haven't seen a black woman politician who wasn't a off the wall white hating bitch and nascent fascist who would ban the 1st and 2nd Amendments in a heartbeat. So far her tweets confirm this.

    With any luck, her nomination will terrify most whites like nothing else to support PDJT or Pence.



    Perfect material for president. Someone who'd wage jihad against whitey and strip them of their
    Constitutional rights. I have no doubt she would set off a race war in this country.
    , @Eagle Eye

    [Kamala Harris'] tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA’s office seems to show she is a good administrator.
     
    Talk in San Francisco is she was 100% focused on promoting No. 1, disinterested in routine tasks and often absent from the office.

    Note her well-timed affair with Dem power house Willie Brown in the 1990s. Also remember Indians due to their history have spent thousands of years perfecting the art of propitiating and benefiting from the powerful. (BTW who was banging her during her time in SF? Gavin Newsom?)

    Looking through Kamala's operational decisions, she always seemed to go with the option most likely to benefit her long-term, whether defending a corrupt DA or opposing the death penalty in San Francisco.

  31. Lot says:
    @res
    Ron presented a graphic of crime correlation with %black for cities over 250k in his 2013 race and crime article: http://www.unz.com/runz/race-and-crime-in-america/

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/BlackCrimeCities250k.jpg

    Focusing on homicides and comparing across races really drives the point home:

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/HomicideRatesCities250k.jpg

    Has anyone updated that data to include post-Ferguson effect numbers?

    Has anyone used that data to create a scatterplot of murder rate vs. %black by city? It would be interesting to see how much of an outlier both Baltimore and NYC are.

    We already have directly measured black murder rates. The point of Ron’s charts there was our data for Hispanics was weak because they are sometimes counted as white in crime stats.

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    But do we have the data and graphics I asked for?
    - Year by year correlations across cities of %black with homicide rate through 2016. If there was an increase that would help validate the Ferguson Effect idea.
    - Scatterplot(s, ideally aggregated and per year both available) of homicide rate vs. percent black. This would help highlight the topic of Steve's post: Baltimore and NYC as outliers. Comparing more recent years to the historical data would also help validate the Ferguson Effect.

    I have seen some analysis like that, but nothing as well organized as Ron's work. And yes, I realize the primary point of Ron's article was to look at Hispanic crime rates in particular. As he says in an early paragraph:

    This contentious history of racially-charged social analysis was certainly in the back of my mind when I began my quantitative research into Hispanic crime rates in late 2009. One traditional difficulty in producing such estimates had been the problematical nature of the data. Although the FBI Uniform Crime Reports readily show the annual totals of black and Asian criminal perpetrators, Hispanics are generally grouped together with whites and no separate figures are provided, thereby allowing all sorts of extreme speculation by those so inclined.
     
    Regarding this:

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.
     
    I agree and have made this point a number of times based on a cursory inspection of the unsolved vs. solved murder victim data. Do you know of any rigorous analysis of this sort?
  32. @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    I think Harris’s argument for election is that she’s super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn’t the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don’t actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    "Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did."

    HRC was near the top of her class at a solid college then went to Yale Law, so she is definitely high IQ. If she failed the bar it was for lack of study.

    "Wouldn’t the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don’t actually hate them as much as it seems they do?"

    Of course. That is why Obama selected Biden for VP. Zuck being white and male will help him in the both the primary and general if he runs. He needs to pick a few issues where he goes centrist. Gun control would be the smartest in his position. So would a huge middle class tax cut. Make the standard exemption $20,000, or $30,000 for married couples, and another $10,000 for every minor child. A family of four pays 0 income tax on their first 50,000 of income.

    Mark Warner would have been the strongest Dem candidate for president in 08 and 16 if he had run.

    Edit: I am talking myself into buying more. I am going to get another 500 Zucks at 6 and put in a limit order for another 500 at 5. Just him getting in sends him to 30 in my view.

    , @David In TN
    "Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?"

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.

    After the 1972 McGovern debacle, the prominent political columnist David Broder, suggested the Democrats nominate a Southerner as the way back to victory. Jimmy Carter was the 1976 Democrat nominee and won the general election.

    In 1992, the Democrats felt it was necessary to have TWO Southerners as the ticket.

    But with Obama winning twice, Democrats (primary voters and caucus attendees especially) don't seem to think they have to bend in that direction any more.

    , @Ed
    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you're white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it's not an issue.

    I don't think Kamala does anything much for the black vote. Going to Howard helps but she's a Bay Area black with no connection to the black Southern tradition. Obama is similar but at least he lived in Chicago and married a black American.
    , @Nico

    I think Harris’s argument for election is that she’s super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?
     
    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea. Obama was of course a puppet, as Harris would be, but I don't think they'll choose her. Obama's certainly no Einstein but he's at least smart enough to understand and follow orders. It is not clear that that is the case for Harris. While the Democratic Party has a huge pool of visible minorities to choose from to put up in front, the party promotes them to important positions less often most likely for the simple reason that they have a perennial dearth of *competent* visible minorities for such positions.

    For this reason, *if* current trends continue (though major disruption of one form or another does seem likely at some point not to far down the road), I predict the Democratic elites are likely to remain disproportionately white (gentile or Jew) for some time to come, even after the U.S. becomes majority nonwhite simply because of the "sticky" inertia involved in the party system. Of course, I could be wrong. Intellectually and ideologically Hillary Clinton was in every way the clone of Barack Obama but from all appearances she is far more difficult to control and therefore highly unpredictable. The country, but less obviously the Democratic Party and indeed the left as a whole, dodged a huge bullet in November. The party elite is now feminized to the point where it can no longer rely on traditional inertia of the cadre to stop the selection of a woman *for* her sex at any level. Thus if the party is to supply the first female president, it absolutely has to furnish a no-nonsense administrator not given to acting on histrionic impulses or bloodthirsty excitement. Otherwise they will be exposed for what they really are.
    , @Rod1963
    All the Democrats have left is tribal and sexual politics.

    Look at the leaders of the DNC - two ethnics that are fanatical race warriors.

    Here's the thing, they dumped the class warfare and protecting the economic well being of the little guy when Clinton sold the party to Wall Street and the globalists. So they can't play the economic populist angle at all. Schumer could steal the GOP's thunder anytime by proposing a tax cut for the middle-class which he won't because he's owned by Wall Street.

    All they have left is pandering to sexual deviants, ethnics and crazed females while attacking dead white males, statues and anything associated with whitey.

    That's not the worst of it. Neither party wants to reign in out of control medical costs which is now consuming some 20% of the GDP and increasing every year, destroying consumer spending as well. That can can't be kicked down the road forever. it's coming to the end of the road and when it does, the party ends. 5 years or so at most before it blows up.

    ,;
    , @Hibernian
    It would be a cold day in hell when they would nominate Manchin.
  33. Lot says:
    @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    Wow, Zuck’s foundation has hired a dream team of presidential campaign consultants. Including Ken Mehlman, the guy who ran the last GOP campaign that won the most votes (and the only one since 1988). These dudes will all be salivating at the idea of running the most expensive political campaign in world history, and against “fascist” DJT, and all telling Zuck he will win if he runs and slanting the polls they take to encourage him further.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/mark-zuckerberg-could-be-running-for-president-in-2020.html

    I have no clue with the general, but I think Zuck is way undervalued for the Dem primary. He and Cuomo are the only white guys under 75 who are portential candidates. And Cuomo is hated by a lot of Dem activists for helping the NYGOP keep control of the NY State Senate. His Wall Street/NYC base will also be split between Booker and Gillibrand, and Biden and Warren and Bernie are further NE candidates.

    So 6 potential candidates from the NE and only Zuck and Kamala for the whole rest of the USA.

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    A year ago I would have said that the idea of Mark Zuckerberg as a serious Presidential candidate would be utterly laughable. But then since Trump got elected, it doesn't seem far-fetched at all.

    I think you are right - the Zuck might even be one of the stronger candidates the Democrats could field. It's a whole different country now.
    , @res
    I was amazed at how old the majority of the top 5 of this WaPo list were: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/08/the-top-15-possible-2020-democratic-nominees-ranked

    What do people here think of their number 3 choice: Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)?
    That was the first I had heard of him. I would like to know why the WaPo listed him so highly. He is white and only 44.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Murphy_(Connecticut_politician)

    Your Zuck futures bet sounds like a good one. If nothing else you are bound to get a decent spike somewhere along the way.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    Are there any polls that show how people feel about Zuck?

    Does people's use of Facebook translate to like of Zuck?

    Does the publuc think of him as a businessman or a nerdy kid computer programmer?

    I have no sense for these questions.

    However, I can say, visually, if he goes suddenly from hoodies to suits, he's going to look to everyone like a little kid playing dress-up.
  34. Lot says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    “Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.”

    HRC was near the top of her class at a solid college then went to Yale Law, so she is definitely high IQ. If she failed the bar it was for lack of study.

    “Wouldn’t the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don’t actually hate them as much as it seems they do?”

    Of course. That is why Obama selected Biden for VP. Zuck being white and male will help him in the both the primary and general if he runs. He needs to pick a few issues where he goes centrist. Gun control would be the smartest in his position. So would a huge middle class tax cut. Make the standard exemption $20,000, or $30,000 for married couples, and another $10,000 for every minor child. A family of four pays 0 income tax on their first 50,000 of income.

    Mark Warner would have been the strongest Dem candidate for president in 08 and 16 if he had run.

    Edit: I am talking myself into buying more. I am going to get another 500 Zucks at 6 and put in a limit order for another 500 at 5. Just him getting in sends him to 30 in my view.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Autochthon

    [Hillary Clinton] was near the top of her class at a solid college then went to Yale Law [School].

    These things do not necessarily indicate high intelligence. What did she study as an undergraduate – chemistry or political science? Did she sleep with any of the professors or administrators? (This second is a serious question; if you've worked in academia you know how often it happens; I once worked for a school where the current dean rose to her eventual position by sleeping with the (then married) dean whilst she was still a student....)

    Admission to Yale University is often much more about connections than merit, and I don't even know that the Law School Admissions Test ("LSAT")was used yet in Clinton's day. If it was, tell me her score and I'll tell you her approximate intelligence quotient ("IQ") – the LSAT is essentially an IQ test.
     

     
  35. Yep

    I was in New York City during almost worst years 1985-90

    Civilization collapsed under Mayor Dinkins.

    Mayor Bloomberg was typical Lib immigration idiot but at least he backed the NYPD.

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me

    Cuckservatives Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan, Orin Hatch, lisping Lindsey Graham, George Will wouldn’t t last a week in early 90s New York City.

    Read Bonfire of the Vanities, Death Wish and Camp of the Saints.

    Libertarians and Constitutionalist are also worthless in such NYC time and places .

    Read More
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me
     
    How come your moniker is not "Jack Ryan New York City" instead of "Jack Ryan Chicago"?
    , @Brutusale
    Bill Bratton is as Boston as they get.
  36. AM says:

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.

    I think he has a chance of winning the Dem primary, especially if we can get Cankles under indictment.

    How well he does in anywhere that’s not California or NY in general election is up for debate. His probable platform would be completely the urban, secular, utopist globalist that has overrun the Democratic party for a least a decade now.

    Read More
  37. @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    “Wouldn’t the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don’t actually hate them as much as it seems they do?”

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.

    After the 1972 McGovern debacle, the prominent political columnist David Broder, suggested the Democrats nominate a Southerner as the way back to victory. Jimmy Carter was the 1976 Democrat nominee and won the general election.

    In 1992, the Democrats felt it was necessary to have TWO Southerners as the ticket.

    But with Obama winning twice, Democrats (primary voters and caucus attendees especially) don’t seem to think they have to bend in that direction any more.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.
     
    They are winning it. Moreover, the Republican Party establishment still seems intent on losing it.
    , @40 Acres and A Kardashian

    They think they are winning the demographic war.
     
    They are winning the demographic war.
  38. res says:
    @Lot
    We already have directly measured black murder rates. The point of Ron's charts there was our data for Hispanics was weak because they are sometimes counted as white in crime stats.

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.

    But do we have the data and graphics I asked for?
    - Year by year correlations across cities of %black with homicide rate through 2016. If there was an increase that would help validate the Ferguson Effect idea.
    - Scatterplot(s, ideally aggregated and per year both available) of homicide rate vs. percent black. This would help highlight the topic of Steve’s post: Baltimore and NYC as outliers. Comparing more recent years to the historical data would also help validate the Ferguson Effect.

    I have seen some analysis like that, but nothing as well organized as Ron’s work. And yes, I realize the primary point of Ron’s article was to look at Hispanic crime rates in particular. As he says in an early paragraph:

    This contentious history of racially-charged social analysis was certainly in the back of my mind when I began my quantitative research into Hispanic crime rates in late 2009. One traditional difficulty in producing such estimates had been the problematical nature of the data. Although the FBI Uniform Crime Reports readily show the annual totals of black and Asian criminal perpetrators, Hispanics are generally grouped together with whites and no separate figures are provided, thereby allowing all sorts of extreme speculation by those so inclined.

    Regarding this:

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.

    I agree and have made this point a number of times based on a cursory inspection of the unsolved vs. solved murder victim data. Do you know of any rigorous analysis of this sort?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    I am not aware of any attempt to adjust murder rates for unsolved cases. The Color of Crime report covers race and crime issues better than any other source, so give that a read if you want to see the best data.

    I can give you a rough but I think fairly accurate guess that murder rates to adjust for unsolved crimes would increase the black rate about 80% and the non-black rate by about 30%.

    Thus the black/non black murder ratio is more like 11-1 rather than the reported 8-1.

  39. Mr. Anon says:
    @Lot
    Wow, Zuck's foundation has hired a dream team of presidential campaign consultants. Including Ken Mehlman, the guy who ran the last GOP campaign that won the most votes (and the only one since 1988). These dudes will all be salivating at the idea of running the most expensive political campaign in world history, and against "fascist" DJT, and all telling Zuck he will win if he runs and slanting the polls they take to encourage him further.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/mark-zuckerberg-could-be-running-for-president-in-2020.html

    I have no clue with the general, but I think Zuck is way undervalued for the Dem primary. He and Cuomo are the only white guys under 75 who are portential candidates. And Cuomo is hated by a lot of Dem activists for helping the NYGOP keep control of the NY State Senate. His Wall Street/NYC base will also be split between Booker and Gillibrand, and Biden and Warren and Bernie are further NE candidates.

    So 6 potential candidates from the NE and only Zuck and Kamala for the whole rest of the USA.

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.

    A year ago I would have said that the idea of Mark Zuckerberg as a serious Presidential candidate would be utterly laughable. But then since Trump got elected, it doesn’t seem far-fetched at all.

    I think you are right – the Zuck might even be one of the stronger candidates the Democrats could field. It’s a whole different country now.

    Read More
  40. Mr. Anon says:
    @David In TN
    "Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?"

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.

    After the 1972 McGovern debacle, the prominent political columnist David Broder, suggested the Democrats nominate a Southerner as the way back to victory. Jimmy Carter was the 1976 Democrat nominee and won the general election.

    In 1992, the Democrats felt it was necessary to have TWO Southerners as the ticket.

    But with Obama winning twice, Democrats (primary voters and caucus attendees especially) don't seem to think they have to bend in that direction any more.

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.

    They are winning it. Moreover, the Republican Party establishment still seems intent on losing it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Barnard
    As long as the GOP is lead by people like Paul Ryan who think MS-13 members are natural conservatives who just haven't been reached by the right messenger yet, the demographic war is a lost cause.
  41. res says:
    @Lot
    Wow, Zuck's foundation has hired a dream team of presidential campaign consultants. Including Ken Mehlman, the guy who ran the last GOP campaign that won the most votes (and the only one since 1988). These dudes will all be salivating at the idea of running the most expensive political campaign in world history, and against "fascist" DJT, and all telling Zuck he will win if he runs and slanting the polls they take to encourage him further.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/mark-zuckerberg-could-be-running-for-president-in-2020.html

    I have no clue with the general, but I think Zuck is way undervalued for the Dem primary. He and Cuomo are the only white guys under 75 who are portential candidates. And Cuomo is hated by a lot of Dem activists for helping the NYGOP keep control of the NY State Senate. His Wall Street/NYC base will also be split between Booker and Gillibrand, and Biden and Warren and Bernie are further NE candidates.

    So 6 potential candidates from the NE and only Zuck and Kamala for the whole rest of the USA.

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.

    I was amazed at how old the majority of the top 5 of this WaPo list were: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/08/the-top-15-possible-2020-democratic-nominees-ranked

    What do people here think of their number 3 choice: Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)?
    That was the first I had heard of him. I would like to know why the WaPo listed him so highly. He is white and only 44.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Murphy_(Connecticut_politician)

    Your Zuck futures bet sounds like a good one. If nothing else you are bound to get a decent spike somewhere along the way.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    P.S. Looking at the comments I find this posted at least twice. Interesting:

    ChrisMurphyClosetSkeletons
    21 hours ago
    Franken: yes. Chris Murphy: bad idea. Murphy has too many skeletons in his closet. He's a ticking time bomb.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Chris Murphy? ! Chris Murphy? !

    Ha!

    He appeared out of nowhere to become one of our Senators. Now he pops up on TV all the time. Must be connected somehow. That's the only explanation.

    There is no enthusiasm for Chris Murphy here in his home state.

    More proof candidates are chosen for us.
  42. res says:
    @res
    I was amazed at how old the majority of the top 5 of this WaPo list were: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/08/the-top-15-possible-2020-democratic-nominees-ranked

    What do people here think of their number 3 choice: Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)?
    That was the first I had heard of him. I would like to know why the WaPo listed him so highly. He is white and only 44.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Murphy_(Connecticut_politician)

    Your Zuck futures bet sounds like a good one. If nothing else you are bound to get a decent spike somewhere along the way.

    P.S. Looking at the comments I find this posted at least twice. Interesting:

    ChrisMurphyClosetSkeletons
    21 hours ago
    Franken: yes. Chris Murphy: bad idea. Murphy has too many skeletons in his closet. He’s a ticking time bomb.

    Read More
  43. prosa123 says: • Website

    The Eric Garner cigarette-selling case isn’t quite over. Just the other day an NYPD review board recommended disciplinary action against the cop who choked him. There’s also still a chance of federal prosecution, though it’s declining as time goes on.

    Read More
  44. @res
    I was amazed at how old the majority of the top 5 of this WaPo list were: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/08/the-top-15-possible-2020-democratic-nominees-ranked

    What do people here think of their number 3 choice: Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)?
    That was the first I had heard of him. I would like to know why the WaPo listed him so highly. He is white and only 44.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Murphy_(Connecticut_politician)

    Your Zuck futures bet sounds like a good one. If nothing else you are bound to get a decent spike somewhere along the way.

    Chris Murphy? ! Chris Murphy? !

    Ha!

    He appeared out of nowhere to become one of our Senators. Now he pops up on TV all the time. Must be connected somehow. That’s the only explanation.

    There is no enthusiasm for Chris Murphy here in his home state.

    More proof candidates are chosen for us.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks! Any idea where the push is coming from? Murphy's WaPo ranking was stunning (e.g. compared to Kamala Harris at #7). Another ranked unexpectedly high IMHO:
    6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.)
  45. Flip says:
    @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    I saw a quote from her defending the kangaroo court college rape trials, and she clearly doesn’t believe in due process or the rights of the accused.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Corn
    Kamala Harris is basically a female Obama: In a multicultural society some are more equal than others.
  46. res says:

    OT: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/10/the-wall-street-journals-trump-problem

    Some samples:

    (referring to the WSJ)

    Poor morale underscored by two rounds of buyouts since September had been exacerbated by the recent departure of one of the paper’s number-two editors for the arch-rival New York Times. But the meeting meant to reassure the newsroom only heightened tensions.

    “Instead of clearing the air about the legitimate concerns of editors and reporters about balanced coverage of Trump, Baker led off with a 20-minute scolding about how we were indeed covering Trump correctly, and anybody who disputed that was wrong and wrong-headed,” a recently departed Journal staffer told the Guardian. “That pretty much took the air out of the room. I and most of my colleagues were disgusted by his performance.”

    Defenders say Baker’s approach is philosophically consistent with the paper’s commitment to fairness, and that it only stands out so clearly now because rivals like the New York Times and the Washington Post have become more aggressive since Trump took office. The Post’s new tagline, “Democracy Dies in Darkness,” speaks to the urgency the paper’s editors see in this moment. A full-page promotional ad in last weekend’s Times declared, in a thinly-veiled reference to Trump: “This moment in history requires an explanation.”

    “The Times and the Post have decided we’re in a unique historical moment, and a different tone or stance are required,” a current Journal staffer told the Guardian. “The Journal is not adopting that attitude.”

    “At a time when relations between government and media are strained, the Journal’s singular focus on factual, unbiased coverage is essential. Our overriding obligation to be fair and objective is why the Journal is cited as the most trusted news organization in America,” Severinghaus added.

    Indeed, a YouGov/Economist survey this summer found the Journal to be the most trusted outlet of the American news organizations surveyed.

    “I agree with the principle that media needs to be careful and wary of going too far,” a source said. “But that’s not what we’re doing.”

    One staffer added: “Words have consequences and Gerry’s terrible handling of things like why we don’t call lies ‘lies’ had a chilling effect.”

    Some feel that a different approach is required with Trump who has turned the press and journalism itself into an enemy in order to generate political support.

    It would be interesting to read an article taking the opposite point of view and criticizing the Lugenpresse for their Trump Derangement Syndrome.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas

    “Instead of clearing the air about the legitimate concerns of editors and reporters about balanced coverage of Trump, Baker led off with a 20-minute scolding about how we were indeed covering Trump correctly, and anybody who disputed that was wrong and wrong-headed,”
     
    The irony is that if the Press adopted Baker's standard for covering Trump, it'd be a more effective way to harm Trump because they'd have some residual credibility and wouldn't be seen to just be in the throes of a tantrum to reject the duly elected President. Few persuadables (distinguished from the people whom the Press writes for - viz, one another) are sifting through the noise and outrage fatigue to see whether this week's most recent WORST THING ANY PRESIDENT HAS EVER DONE is really bad.
  47. res says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    Chris Murphy? ! Chris Murphy? !

    Ha!

    He appeared out of nowhere to become one of our Senators. Now he pops up on TV all the time. Must be connected somehow. That's the only explanation.

    There is no enthusiasm for Chris Murphy here in his home state.

    More proof candidates are chosen for us.

    Thanks! Any idea where the push is coming from? Murphy’s WaPo ranking was stunning (e.g. compared to Kamala Harris at #7). Another ranked unexpectedly high IMHO:
    6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    It's a mystery to me, sorry. I could research the same sources you could, but that's about it.

    My guess is his location here puts him in contact with powerful Democrats and media people. I can say the same thing about former FBI director Jim Comey, by the way. As a hedge fund lawyer (when he was making his fortune between government assignments) he lived in my old neighborhood. That was a veritable aquarium full of Demosharks, network execs and producers (think Harvey Weinstein -- Comey could have walked to Harvey's beachfront estate). There is no doubt in my mind that Comey is a tool of the powers that be on the Democrat team.

  48. Ed says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you’re white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it’s not an issue.

    I don’t think Kamala does anything much for the black vote. Going to Howard helps but she’s a Bay Area black with no connection to the black Southern tradition. Obama is similar but at least he lived in Chicago and married a black American.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas

    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you’re white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it’s not an issue.
     
    But the problem for the Dems is that lots of white Christian middle class types live in the states of their former "Big Blue Wall" in the Great Lakes region - PA, OH, MI, WI, etc.

    And identity politics is sort of like trying to win a regatta by serially tossing members of your crew overboard to make the ship sail faster under less weight. It works right up until it doesn't work and things go all screwey.
  49. White Government Workers, Jews and Whites who have benefited from globalization and monetary extremism. These are the White voters sticking with the Democrat Party.

    Read More
  50. @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    Lot,

    OT, but good comment on Harris. Generally, don’t want to run too far with these OT comments. But will say, I think this part you’ve got wrong:

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    Zuck strikes me as an extremely bad candidate against Trump. He’s far too obviously who/what-interests the Democrat party actually represents, as opposed to their marketing piffle. And then just the atmospherics–running a billionaire egomaniac cancels out a couple of the best attacks on Trump.

    It’s obvious who the Democrats should run to win–a smart non-rich white guy with a solid moderate record in office who can run against “Trump the loon”. I.e. Bill Clinton. But they don’t have a big store of those folks, that’s not what the Democratic party is about.

    The person holding all the cards for the next election is Trump. If he can reign in his ego, but nonetheless hit hard to make ideological and legislative progress on a nationalist agenda–the wall, deporting illegals, mandatory E-verify, throttling Muslim immigration, infrastructure–he should be able to get himself re-elected. If he just rants and raves but doesn’t accomplish anything, he’ll be pretty easy to pick off.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump's tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

    , @Anon
    Zuck has no chance. Everything about him reeks of the dweeb who got shoved into the lockers at school. The American public has never voted for a guy like that, and Trump would take him apart in the debates.
  51. @David In TN
    "Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?"

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.

    After the 1972 McGovern debacle, the prominent political columnist David Broder, suggested the Democrats nominate a Southerner as the way back to victory. Jimmy Carter was the 1976 Democrat nominee and won the general election.

    In 1992, the Democrats felt it was necessary to have TWO Southerners as the ticket.

    But with Obama winning twice, Democrats (primary voters and caucus attendees especially) don't seem to think they have to bend in that direction any more.

    They think they are winning the demographic war.

    They are winning the demographic war.

    Read More
  52. @res
    OT: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/10/the-wall-street-journals-trump-problem

    Some samples:

    (referring to the WSJ)

    Poor morale underscored by two rounds of buyouts since September had been exacerbated by the recent departure of one of the paper’s number-two editors for the arch-rival New York Times. But the meeting meant to reassure the newsroom only heightened tensions.

    “Instead of clearing the air about the legitimate concerns of editors and reporters about balanced coverage of Trump, Baker led off with a 20-minute scolding about how we were indeed covering Trump correctly, and anybody who disputed that was wrong and wrong-headed,” a recently departed Journal staffer told the Guardian. “That pretty much took the air out of the room. I and most of my colleagues were disgusted by his performance.”
     

    Defenders say Baker’s approach is philosophically consistent with the paper’s commitment to fairness, and that it only stands out so clearly now because rivals like the New York Times and the Washington Post have become more aggressive since Trump took office. The Post’s new tagline, “Democracy Dies in Darkness,” speaks to the urgency the paper’s editors see in this moment. A full-page promotional ad in last weekend’s Times declared, in a thinly-veiled reference to Trump: “This moment in history requires an explanation.”

    “The Times and the Post have decided we’re in a unique historical moment, and a different tone or stance are required,” a current Journal staffer told the Guardian. “The Journal is not adopting that attitude.”
     

    “At a time when relations between government and media are strained, the Journal’s singular focus on factual, unbiased coverage is essential. Our overriding obligation to be fair and objective is why the Journal is cited as the most trusted news organization in America,” Severinghaus added.

    Indeed, a YouGov/Economist survey this summer found the Journal to be the most trusted outlet of the American news organizations surveyed.
     

    “I agree with the principle that media needs to be careful and wary of going too far,” a source said. “But that’s not what we’re doing.”

    One staffer added: “Words have consequences and Gerry’s terrible handling of things like why we don’t call lies ‘lies’ had a chilling effect.”

    Some feel that a different approach is required with Trump who has turned the press and journalism itself into an enemy in order to generate political support.
     
    It would be interesting to read an article taking the opposite point of view and criticizing the Lugenpresse for their Trump Derangement Syndrome.

    “Instead of clearing the air about the legitimate concerns of editors and reporters about balanced coverage of Trump, Baker led off with a 20-minute scolding about how we were indeed covering Trump correctly, and anybody who disputed that was wrong and wrong-headed,”

    The irony is that if the Press adopted Baker’s standard for covering Trump, it’d be a more effective way to harm Trump because they’d have some residual credibility and wouldn’t be seen to just be in the throes of a tantrum to reject the duly elected President. Few persuadables (distinguished from the people whom the Press writes for – viz, one another) are sifting through the noise and outrage fatigue to see whether this week’s most recent WORST THING ANY PRESIDENT HAS EVER DONE is really bad.

    Read More
  53. @Ed
    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you're white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it's not an issue.

    I don't think Kamala does anything much for the black vote. Going to Howard helps but she's a Bay Area black with no connection to the black Southern tradition. Obama is similar but at least he lived in Chicago and married a black American.

    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you’re white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it’s not an issue.

    But the problem for the Dems is that lots of white Christian middle class types live in the states of their former “Big Blue Wall” in the Great Lakes region – PA, OH, MI, WI, etc.

    And identity politics is sort of like trying to win a regatta by serially tossing members of your crew overboard to make the ship sail faster under less weight. It works right up until it doesn’t work and things go all screwey.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thea
    It may not work but identity politics does appear to be here to stay. Probably not us working is a feature rather than a bug but what do I know
  54. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc…

    But the elite of NYC has “double duties”: they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC’s elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC’s elite is basically the “boss” of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show “Gossip Girl” was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan’s elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is “The Great American City”. It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not “U.S.A Today”, but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC’s Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the “ultimate” for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman’s city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it’s main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it’s true that the rules that apply to NYC don’t apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a “protectorate” of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nico

    So it’s true that the rules that apply to NYC don’t apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a “protectorate” of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.
     
    Knowing Steve, he probably agrees with you and his remark was a tongue-in-cheek thought experiment.

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the "other" and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.

    In person, New Yorkers will, it is true, often roll out their disdain for the rest of the country in a sort of "true false joke," but the "official" channels of the intelligentsia rarely will. Occasionally they'll let an indiscretion creep out: I'm thinking in particular of David Samuels's hilariously reveling article from May 2016:

    The narratives he frames, the voices of senior officials, the columnists and reporters whose work he skillfully shapes and ventriloquizes, and even the president’s own speeches and talking points, are the only dots of color in a much larger vision about who Americans are and where we are going that Rhodes and the president have been formulating together over the past seven years.
     
    However, on the whole, the American financial and political elite and the intelligentsia, unlike their counterparts of Rome of old, legitimize their reign with discourses of democracy, liberty and equality. Their refusal to put their money where their mouth is deserves to be read out. It is an absurdity, for the reasons you outline, to seriously suggest that New York become like Baltimore. It is however an absurdity that is fully consistent with the ideology of the klepto-mythocrats and there is every reason to want to expose the absurdity of that ideology.
    , @Lugash

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.
     
    Fuck that noise. NYC is either part of the country, or it isn't. If it's part of the country, the rules get applied equally.
    , @Ed
    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren't particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    I think NYC crime drop stems from its diversity. Even the majority of blacks in NYC aren't from the USA or descended from American slaves. The Hispanic community has also experienced demographic change as criminally prone ranks of Puerto Ricans has thinned out.
    , @Anonymous
    I've said it before and I'll say it again: Getting NYC, particularly Manhattan, cut down to size is Job One for any practicable "conservative" or "reformist" movement, as opposed to Pierce or Covington kick-over-the-old-regime revolutionism.

    9/11 would have been the perfect opportunity had we not had a "conservative" president that eagerly did to Elliot Abrams, Paul Wolfowitz, Doug Feith and the like what Madonna promised to do for Hillary voters (but backed down on.)

    (Can anyone find the clip of Adrien Brody grilling Norman Reedus over "you gave him some skull, didn't you?" in Six Ways to Sunday? )
    , @Hieronymus of Canada

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!
     
    I should note that Joel Garrieau wrote of Manhattan as 'Nation'-less anomaly in his 1980 Nine Nations of North America

    Still, I'm not sure about that. LA has Hollywood; Silicon Valley is basically the USA's last great industrial cluster, along Huston's oil and gas industries. And of course Washington, D.C. and its imperial government. Those are powerful industries with powerful elites. I don't doubt that New York is a powerful, or even the *most* powerful metropolitan center in the US, but I'm not sure it's at the level of London, Paris, Tokyo, etc. as compared to the rest of the country.

    Nico:

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.
     
    Pendatic historical note: this was true during the Republic and the early Empire, by the mid to late Empire the city of Rome began to decline in importance, along with its ancient Senatorial classes. It was loosing power to the Equestrians who lived in the Romanizing provinces - even some of the Good Emperors came not from Rome, but from Spain.

    Rome was too far away from the frontiers garrison by the army, which during the Crisis of the Third Century made and broke emperors at will. The Empire was split into two, with the eastern half getting a capital in the New Rome of Constantinople, while the Western Empire had its capital moved to Ravenna until Odoacer shut that venerable institution down.

    OT:

    What does everybody thinking of Jeff Bezos and Amazon's next large acquisition: a new summer capital* second headquarters, somewhere in North America? Various candidates have been proposed including Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Denver or Toronto.

    Personally, I think the Internet peanut gallery is unfairly dismissing the chances of Southern cities because they are full of Deplorables and their deplorable laws. I doubt cultural politics will be of any importance as compared to the buyablity of the politicians with regards to labour laws and taxes. And Southern politicians are VERY buyable.

    I don't see them going to a flyover city, as it's too far away from anywhere else. Nor will it go to Detroit, Baltimore or Mexico(!), as some over commenters wish, because while Amazon is big, it's not big enough (yet) to buy a Praetorian Guard to clear out the barbarian armies in control of those places.

    If they choose a Canadian city, I think many are overrating Toronto and underrating Montreal (full disclosure: I was born and raised in the latter). Land prices, while not at Vancouver levels, is still extremely high. Also often unmentioned is electricity prices. Hydro-Quebec operates several large dams in the North, which provinces cheap electricity for the province and its neighbours. A big reason that Boeing is in Seattle is access to cheap hydroelectricity; wind tunnels aren't cheap. Likewise, big data centers are big electricity users. A computer science professor told us a story of how friend who ran a data center asked someone at the power company if they could provide enough power. They replied that they could - if they turn of the mid-sized city next to the data center.

    And of course, they could always establish in the old imperial cities of Washington, D.C. and New York City. Like people, the best way of becoming powerful is having power.

    * This reminds me of Forbidden Palace and Versailles wonders in Civilization 4, which provide the empire who built it a second or third capital, which reduced maintenance costs in nearby cities like the Palace - even though the namesake wonders a built in or near their respective capitals!
  55. Nico says:

    OT: Steve, with Florida getting pummeled under Hurricane Irina after Texas, and with urban sprawl being one reason (alongside global warming) such storms have become increasingly damaging over the past few decades, perhaps a piece on the relationship between sprawl and diversity/desegregation? The reason for white flight to the suburbs, of course, is that 1. it is easier to control access to bedroom communities when desegregation would otherwise force whites to live next door to non-whites (this of course is the reason the public appears favorable to the idea of mass transit, but almost any specific proposed bus or rail line is sure to generate ferocious opposition), and 2. you don’t throw as much tax money at wasteful subsidies of pathological populations.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    OT: Steve, with Florida getting pummeled under Hurricane Irina after Texas, and with urban sprawl being one reason (alongside global warming) such storms have become increasingly damaging over the past few decades,

    I think the loss of life in Hurricane Harvey amounted to about 70 people spread over 13 counties. There were 11 hurricanes with 4-digit death tolls between 1900 and 1980 and there have been 5 since. The number of category 5 hurricanes recorded was about 3 during the former period and 3 during the latter. As for property damage, the off-the-charts example is Katrina, not because of the storm per se, because it crashed into an indifferently maintained flood-control system and the government went overboard with its reconstruction aid.
  56. Lot says:
    @AnotherDad
    Lot,

    OT, but good comment on Harris. Generally, don't want to run too far with these OT comments. But will say, I think this part you've got wrong:

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)
     
    Zuck strikes me as an extremely bad candidate against Trump. He's far too obviously who/what-interests the Democrat party actually represents, as opposed to their marketing piffle. And then just the atmospherics--running a billionaire egomaniac cancels out a couple of the best attacks on Trump.

    It's obvious who the Democrats should run to win--a smart non-rich white guy with a solid moderate record in office who can run against "Trump the loon". I.e. Bill Clinton. But they don't have a big store of those folks, that's not what the Democratic party is about.

    The person holding all the cards for the next election is Trump. If he can reign in his ego, but nonetheless hit hard to make ideological and legislative progress on a nationalist agenda--the wall, deporting illegals, mandatory E-verify, throttling Muslim immigration, infrastructure--he should be able to get himself re-elected. If he just rants and raves but doesn't accomplish anything, he'll be pretty easy to pick off.

    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump’s tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

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    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    Where are the Dems going to pick up seats? They can't gerrymander any more majority black ones, and a third of their delegation comes from just 3 states right now. BLM and Antifa have given them a bad reputation going into 2018.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    Tax reform would be a real accomplishment for him. He could get one time goodwill votes from lower-income people, too, who may have to spend hours on forms just to show they don't owe anything. But I don't think either party is truly interested in major tax reform.
    , @Anonymous
    "If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. "

    These gov't gimme ideas don't really work. It just encourages inflation or gets frivolously spent in ways that are less wise than when someone worked for it. And being that it comes from the government, it means that it costs $7000 per person instead of $3500, because they will increase their bureaucracy to manage it, foolishly waste lots of it, etc. And in the end the taxpayer pays for it, which falls squarely on the backs of those middle class families it purports to help. It seems likely that the middle class citizen would have been better off without it.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich... Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires
     
    Somehow taking residence in Washington D.C. reduces the IQ of all inhabitants. I expected Trump to disappoint. I did not expect Trump to become stupid. But, to quote the great Forrest Gump: "Stupid is as stupid does."

    BTW, even had I known, I still would have voted for him. And, unless he caves on immigration, I'll vote for him again.
  57. Nico says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    I think Harris’s argument for election is that she’s super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea. Obama was of course a puppet, as Harris would be, but I don’t think they’ll choose her. Obama’s certainly no Einstein but he’s at least smart enough to understand and follow orders. It is not clear that that is the case for Harris. While the Democratic Party has a huge pool of visible minorities to choose from to put up in front, the party promotes them to important positions less often most likely for the simple reason that they have a perennial dearth of *competent* visible minorities for such positions.

    For this reason, *if* current trends continue (though major disruption of one form or another does seem likely at some point not to far down the road), I predict the Democratic elites are likely to remain disproportionately white (gentile or Jew) for some time to come, even after the U.S. becomes majority nonwhite simply because of the “sticky” inertia involved in the party system. Of course, I could be wrong. Intellectually and ideologically Hillary Clinton was in every way the clone of Barack Obama but from all appearances she is far more difficult to control and therefore highly unpredictable. The country, but less obviously the Democratic Party and indeed the left as a whole, dodged a huge bullet in November. The party elite is now feminized to the point where it can no longer rely on traditional inertia of the cadre to stop the selection of a woman *for* her sex at any level. Thus if the party is to supply the first female president, it absolutely has to furnish a no-nonsense administrator not given to acting on histrionic impulses or bloodthirsty excitement. Otherwise they will be exposed for what they really are.

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    • Replies: @Alec Leamas

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.
     
    I have my doubts - the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with "No red America, No blue America" era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn't punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.
    , @Anon
    Kamala Harris is already outclassed. She doesn't understand that one big important reason Obama got elected is that he hit the road early and spoke everywhere, every small town and fish fry. Ask the average American who she is, and they'll reply, who? Her history indicates that she doesn't have Obama's relentlessness, drive, and campaign stamina. But for a no-name candidate, the latter traits are absolutely necessary. Zuck, though a silly beta guy, understands this, which is why he's starting so early and popping up like Eleanor Roosevelt in a coal mine.
  58. Rod1963 says:
    @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    Conservative for the Bay Area means she’s pro open borders, pro sanctuary city and protecting illegal alien drug dealers. It’s one city I’d love to see get hit by a North Korean nuke.

    She doesn’t have a 12o IQ, maybe 110. I’ve listened to her speak, she comes off as a lightweight. For someone who is supposedly a hot shot DA. I wouldn’t expect her to come off as a bimbo in a senate hearing, which she did.

    She’s a AA baby raised in a bubble world of SF and it shows

    That doesn’t bother me though.

    It’s that she is a hard core racist and gun grabber. I haven’t seen a black woman politician who wasn’t a off the wall white hating bitch and nascent fascist who would ban the 1st and 2nd Amendments in a heartbeat. So far her tweets confirm this.

    With any luck, her nomination will terrify most whites like nothing else to support PDJT or Pence.

    Perfect material for president. Someone who’d wage jihad against whitey and strip them of their
    Constitutional rights. I have no doubt she would set off a race war in this country.

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  59. Nico says:
    @Anonymous
    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the "de facto" capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc...

    But the elite of NYC has "double duties": they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC's elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC's elite is basically the "boss" of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show "Gossip Girl" was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan's elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is "The Great American City". It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not "U.S.A Today", but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC's Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the "ultimate" for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman's city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it's main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it's true that the rules that apply to NYC don't apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a "protectorate" of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    So it’s true that the rules that apply to NYC don’t apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a “protectorate” of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    Knowing Steve, he probably agrees with you and his remark was a tongue-in-cheek thought experiment.

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.

    In person, New Yorkers will, it is true, often roll out their disdain for the rest of the country in a sort of “true false joke,” but the “official” channels of the intelligentsia rarely will. Occasionally they’ll let an indiscretion creep out: I’m thinking in particular of David Samuels’s hilariously reveling article from May 2016:

    The narratives he frames, the voices of senior officials, the columnists and reporters whose work he skillfully shapes and ventriloquizes, and even the president’s own speeches and talking points, are the only dots of color in a much larger vision about who Americans are and where we are going that Rhodes and the president have been formulating together over the past seven years.

    However, on the whole, the American financial and political elite and the intelligentsia, unlike their counterparts of Rome of old, legitimize their reign with discourses of democracy, liberty and equality. Their refusal to put their money where their mouth is deserves to be read out. It is an absurdity, for the reasons you outline, to seriously suggest that New York become like Baltimore. It is however an absurdity that is fully consistent with the ideology of the klepto-mythocrats and there is every reason to want to expose the absurdity of that ideology.

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  60. @Big Bill
    Don't discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps's car, let alone "run over" by it, but SJWs are still beating the "three killed by Nazis in Charlottesville" drum.

    Does anybody have a link to the original NBC News video or article where Heyer’s mother mentions a heart attack? Screencaps, archived pages – anything?

    The fact that outlets like Media Matters are discussing the heart attack claim instead of just ignoring it leads me to believe that this really is just fake news. Happy to be proven wrong though.

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  61. Rod1963 says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    All the Democrats have left is tribal and sexual politics.

    Look at the leaders of the DNC – two ethnics that are fanatical race warriors.

    Here’s the thing, they dumped the class warfare and protecting the economic well being of the little guy when Clinton sold the party to Wall Street and the globalists. So they can’t play the economic populist angle at all. Schumer could steal the GOP’s thunder anytime by proposing a tax cut for the middle-class which he won’t because he’s owned by Wall Street.

    All they have left is pandering to sexual deviants, ethnics and crazed females while attacking dead white males, statues and anything associated with whitey.

    That’s not the worst of it. Neither party wants to reign in out of control medical costs which is now consuming some 20% of the GDP and increasing every year, destroying consumer spending as well. That can can’t be kicked down the road forever. it’s coming to the end of the road and when it does, the party ends. 5 years or so at most before it blows up.

    ,;

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  62. eah says:

    Yes, but remember how useful, even heroic, Blacks (assuming Blacks are doing the killing — my bad) are during natural disasters.

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  63. The big brains who said Trump could never win are now fluffing the Dem’s line up with their usual fact based analysis.

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  64. fish says:
    @Anonymous

    For awhile after that fat black guy selling contraband cigarettes died of a heart attack in Staten Island, it looked like New York City was going to go the way of St. Louis after Ferguson (August 2014). But then a BLM enthusiast murdered two NYPD officers in December 2014.
     
    BLM had four months to plan the executions. Four whole months to get it right. And then the morons went and killed a Chinese cop and a Dominican cop. No dead whites at all. There is no limit to their stupid. How long would it have taken them to wait for some killable white cops?

    If they had only offed a white cop, Hillary could have been out there talking about institutional white cop racism like she did after Dallas. Just one dead white cop would have justified everything. But no. BLM had to off a yellow cop and a brown cop. Go figure.

    There is no limit to their stupid.

    Hardly matters….they’ll always get the MSM Mulligan!

    ………and we’re on to other things!

    See……it’s like it never happened.

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  65. fish says:
    @Tiny Duck
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Choco_Optimus/status/906686851079180288

    Shouldn’t you be on your knees in a mens room somewhere?

    – Leonard Pitts

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  66. Currahee says:
    @asf
    Steve,

    There is a chart that shows the % of black children born to unwed mothers rising from 20% in 1965 to 75% today.

    Are there crime statistics for pre-1965 that could be properly compared with those today? Curious if the per capita crime rates were also lower pre-1965 or not.

    Pre 1965 blacks were segregated, socially isolated and closely policed.

    No thug/rap culture, black movie presence was minimal, 1 0r 2 on television (church lady types: i.e. Julia), race records were a small industry fraction.

    In fact, hardly any mention of them at all in popular media.

    Invisible so to speak.

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  67. Lugash says:
    @Anonymous
    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the "de facto" capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc...

    But the elite of NYC has "double duties": they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC's elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC's elite is basically the "boss" of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show "Gossip Girl" was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan's elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is "The Great American City". It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not "U.S.A Today", but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC's Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the "ultimate" for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman's city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it's main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it's true that the rules that apply to NYC don't apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a "protectorate" of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    Fuck that noise. NYC is either part of the country, or it isn’t. If it’s part of the country, the rules get applied equally.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    There isn't enough resources to make every city in America as orderly and safe as NYC. Manhattan is where the national elite lives, and because of that it has a special status. What do you want Manhattan elite to do? To lend these cities their police department?

    "Here, we are lending you our heavily subsidized and superb police force to solve your local crime problems..."

    Other American cities just don't have the resources that NYC has to deal with criminality and social problems. As the de facto national capital, NYC has a special status. What the Manhattan elite, which is also the national elite, is saying to other American cities is:

    "We can't solve your local problems for you. We have bigger fish to fry. You should solve your local problems with your local resources."
  68. Lugash says:

    Time for a new episode of “Where’s Mischa?”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/europe/georgia-mikheil-saakashvili-ukraine.html

    Mikheil Saakashvili, a former president of Georgia, finds himself in an unusual position for a former head of state: He is stateless, and spent Sunday trying to enter a country that does not want him, first by train, then by bus and finally on foot with a crowd of supporters who forced open the border into Ukraine.

    Amid conflicting reports of Mr. Saakashvili’s exact whereabouts late Sunday, a spokesman for Ukraine’s border guards, Oleh Slobodyan, said a crowd had broken through a frontier post with Poland at Shehyni in western Ukraine and started a fight.

    Then late Sunday evening, Mr. Saakashvili, 49, resurfaced in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, appearing before reporters alongside the city’s mayor, Andriy Sadovyi.

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  69. @Nico

    I think Harris’s argument for election is that she’s super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?
     
    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea. Obama was of course a puppet, as Harris would be, but I don't think they'll choose her. Obama's certainly no Einstein but he's at least smart enough to understand and follow orders. It is not clear that that is the case for Harris. While the Democratic Party has a huge pool of visible minorities to choose from to put up in front, the party promotes them to important positions less often most likely for the simple reason that they have a perennial dearth of *competent* visible minorities for such positions.

    For this reason, *if* current trends continue (though major disruption of one form or another does seem likely at some point not to far down the road), I predict the Democratic elites are likely to remain disproportionately white (gentile or Jew) for some time to come, even after the U.S. becomes majority nonwhite simply because of the "sticky" inertia involved in the party system. Of course, I could be wrong. Intellectually and ideologically Hillary Clinton was in every way the clone of Barack Obama but from all appearances she is far more difficult to control and therefore highly unpredictable. The country, but less obviously the Democratic Party and indeed the left as a whole, dodged a huge bullet in November. The party elite is now feminized to the point where it can no longer rely on traditional inertia of the cadre to stop the selection of a woman *for* her sex at any level. Thus if the party is to supply the first female president, it absolutely has to furnish a no-nonsense administrator not given to acting on histrionic impulses or bloodthirsty excitement. Otherwise they will be exposed for what they really are.

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.

    I have my doubts – the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with “No red America, No blue America” era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn’t punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nico
    I was conscious that I was oversimplifying things a bit for brevity's sake. However, the actual significance of the dispute is often overstated: as I pointed out, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are ideologically similar enough that the spate was little more than personal.

    By the way, "first male president" should be "first BLACK president." :X
    , @Anon
    I think it has more to do with the fact that Democrats, like all childish thinkers, are attracted by the new and shiny, and Obama was new and shiny, and Hillary wasn't. The only one Hillary could beat was Bernie, who was even more old and tired than herself.
    , @Art Deco
    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama,

    Among the superdelegates, perhaps. Clinton actually one a slight plurality in popular ballots.
    , @Art Deco
    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    Reagan and Lincoln are about the only plaster saints the GOP ever had. Gen. Grant, TR, Calvin Coolidge, and Gen. Eisenhower had a great deal of prestige, but only for circumscribed periods of time.
  70. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I have absolutely no doubt that the reason for the reduction in black homocides and felonies in general, in NYC, corresponds with the reason black crime in particular, and all felonies in general, was dramatically reduced in the city of Compton: Less black people residing there each year.

    What Mayor DeBlasio must learn to lead a city is the same old rule all Mayors must internalize, no matter what a Mayor’s best laid plans are.

    American mayors should have this maxim literally branded onto their cerebral cortex:

    “Whenever and wherever you allow a significant number of black people to exist in any community, black people will always let you down.”

    Read More
  71. @res
    Thanks! Any idea where the push is coming from? Murphy's WaPo ranking was stunning (e.g. compared to Kamala Harris at #7). Another ranked unexpectedly high IMHO:
    6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.)

    It’s a mystery to me, sorry. I could research the same sources you could, but that’s about it.

    My guess is his location here puts him in contact with powerful Democrats and media people. I can say the same thing about former FBI director Jim Comey, by the way. As a hedge fund lawyer (when he was making his fortune between government assignments) he lived in my old neighborhood. That was a veritable aquarium full of Demosharks, network execs and producers (think Harvey Weinstein — Comey could have walked to Harvey’s beachfront estate). There is no doubt in my mind that Comey is a tool of the powers that be on the Democrat team.

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  72. Ed says:
    @Anonymous
    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the "de facto" capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc...

    But the elite of NYC has "double duties": they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC's elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC's elite is basically the "boss" of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show "Gossip Girl" was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan's elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is "The Great American City". It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not "U.S.A Today", but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC's Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the "ultimate" for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman's city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it's main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it's true that the rules that apply to NYC don't apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a "protectorate" of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren’t particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    I think NYC crime drop stems from its diversity. Even the majority of blacks in NYC aren’t from the USA or descended from American slaves. The Hispanic community has also experienced demographic change as criminally prone ranks of Puerto Ricans has thinned out.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren’t particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    Other than office-holders with scads of security and chamber staff (i.e. Gov. Cuomo and Mayor di Blasio), I doubt you're going to find much of a domestic staff in the lives of today's wealthy (except for the plutocratic element). Take Ted Cruz and his wife. They've had periods in their marriage when they had a 7 figure income, she has a demanding and lucrative job, and he's traveling all the time. They employ a housekeeper (who resides with them), and that's all.
    , @Anonymous
    Trust me: the elite of NYC is the *national* elite of the U.S economically, culturally and even politically. Unlike the elite of any other city, which only has influence in their city or state, the elite of NYC are the people that rule America as a whole. You could say the Manhattan elite is the elite of the elite. That is where the people that rule the whole country reside in. It's one thing to be elite in San Francisco, Houston, Atlanta or Chicago. It's a *whole* other level being elite in Manhattan. The elite of NYC is the elite of the whole country.
  73. Art Deco says:
    @Alec Leamas

    I mean, New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they’ll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah’s homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.
     
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    Patterson and Newark between them have a population 1/20 th that of the City of New York, so you’re not going to reduce your homicide rate much by deporting troublesome characters there. There isn’t much of a secular trend in homicide rates in either locale over the last 15 years. (The worst year in Paterson had 8 homicides more than the median year; the worst in Newark 21 murders more). There hasn’t been much of a noticeable trend in Jersey City, the Oranges, Irvington, or Elizabeth (bar a recent spike in East Orange, co-incident with the city replacing their quite effective mayor). In Mount Vernon and Yonkers, homicide has (if anything) been on a declining trajectory.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    It may have more to do with the fact than when criminals are released from prison, they aren't able to move back into New York easily because of the housing squeeze and high cost of living.
    , @Redman
    As a lifelong New Yawker, I agree.

    It's the economy stupid. The sheer wealth in NYC can only be matched to any degree in the burbs of D.C. Since the internet boom of 1995, the city has had an abundance of at least minimum wage service jobs for diverse yutes with a pulse. Even after the 2008 crash, I didn't notice much of a dip in conspicuous consumption, building and general growth and expansion of the city at large.

    The markets dominate the US economy more than ever, and NY is where those markets are based. The wealthy bankers need services, so jobs r main plentiful. It's pretty obvious to those who notice.
  74. Nico says:
    @Alec Leamas

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.
     
    I have my doubts - the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with "No red America, No blue America" era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn't punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    I was conscious that I was oversimplifying things a bit for brevity’s sake. However, the actual significance of the dispute is often overstated: as I pointed out, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are ideologically similar enough that the spate was little more than personal.

    By the way, “first male president” should be “first BLACK president.” :X

    Read More
  75. Art Deco says:
    @Ed
    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren't particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    I think NYC crime drop stems from its diversity. Even the majority of blacks in NYC aren't from the USA or descended from American slaves. The Hispanic community has also experienced demographic change as criminally prone ranks of Puerto Ricans has thinned out.

    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren’t particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    Other than office-holders with scads of security and chamber staff (i.e. Gov. Cuomo and Mayor di Blasio), I doubt you’re going to find much of a domestic staff in the lives of today’s wealthy (except for the plutocratic element). Take Ted Cruz and his wife. They’ve had periods in their marriage when they had a 7 figure income, she has a demanding and lucrative job, and he’s traveling all the time. They employ a housekeeper (who resides with them), and that’s all.

    Read More
    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @StillCARealist
    What did you think of Theodore Dalrymple's comment that the middle class in India has it better than the upper classes of the west simply because they can afford scads of servants to do all their work for them?

    Probably in the West we don't need tons of servants because we have such good infrastructure and affordable labor-saving devices. Also, one can hire the help part-time and avoid having living expenses and full-time benefits. By this I mean a landscaper, a pool service, a pest service, a dog walker, after school babysitting, that sort of thing. Heck, if you get a house-cleaner to come in once a month you can have a pretty tidy life.
  76. @Lot
    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump's tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

    Where are the Dems going to pick up seats? They can’t gerrymander any more majority black ones, and a third of their delegation comes from just 3 states right now. BLM and Antifa have given them a bad reputation going into 2018.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    You can check Cook Political Report's race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.
  77. Art Deco says:
    @Nico
    OT: Steve, with Florida getting pummeled under Hurricane Irina after Texas, and with urban sprawl being one reason (alongside global warming) such storms have become increasingly damaging over the past few decades, perhaps a piece on the relationship between sprawl and diversity/desegregation? The reason for white flight to the suburbs, of course, is that 1. it is easier to control access to bedroom communities when desegregation would otherwise force whites to live next door to non-whites (this of course is the reason the public appears favorable to the idea of mass transit, but almost any specific proposed bus or rail line is sure to generate ferocious opposition), and 2. you don't throw as much tax money at wasteful subsidies of pathological populations.

    OT: Steve, with Florida getting pummeled under Hurricane Irina after Texas, and with urban sprawl being one reason (alongside global warming) such storms have become increasingly damaging over the past few decades,

    I think the loss of life in Hurricane Harvey amounted to about 70 people spread over 13 counties. There were 11 hurricanes with 4-digit death tolls between 1900 and 1980 and there have been 5 since. The number of category 5 hurricanes recorded was about 3 during the former period and 3 during the latter. As for property damage, the off-the-charts example is Katrina, not because of the storm per se, because it crashed into an indifferently maintained flood-control system and the government went overboard with its reconstruction aid.

    Read More
  78. @Lot
    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump's tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

    Tax reform would be a real accomplishment for him. He could get one time goodwill votes from lower-income people, too, who may have to spend hours on forms just to show they don’t owe anything. But I don’t think either party is truly interested in major tax reform.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    The IRS would like to send pre-filled tax forms to the many people who year after year have no income other than their fully reported job income, but HR Block lobbies to stop this because it likes ripping off proles with usurious tax refund anticipation loans.

    California has a free Turbotax style website for doing your state income tax. The IRS was specifically prohibited from doing the same by Congress on behalf of the same lobbyists.
  79. Barnard says:
    @Mr. Anon

    A generation or so ago, they would consider this, but not sure they would now. They think they are winning the demographic war.
     
    They are winning it. Moreover, the Republican Party establishment still seems intent on losing it.

    As long as the GOP is lead by people like Paul Ryan who think MS-13 members are natural conservatives who just haven’t been reached by the right messenger yet, the demographic war is a lost cause.

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  80. @Lot
    Wow, Zuck's foundation has hired a dream team of presidential campaign consultants. Including Ken Mehlman, the guy who ran the last GOP campaign that won the most votes (and the only one since 1988). These dudes will all be salivating at the idea of running the most expensive political campaign in world history, and against "fascist" DJT, and all telling Zuck he will win if he runs and slanting the polls they take to encourage him further.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/mark-zuckerberg-could-be-running-for-president-in-2020.html

    I have no clue with the general, but I think Zuck is way undervalued for the Dem primary. He and Cuomo are the only white guys under 75 who are portential candidates. And Cuomo is hated by a lot of Dem activists for helping the NYGOP keep control of the NY State Senate. His Wall Street/NYC base will also be split between Booker and Gillibrand, and Biden and Warren and Bernie are further NE candidates.

    So 6 potential candidates from the NE and only Zuck and Kamala for the whole rest of the USA.

    With Zuck trading at only 6, I decided to buy 1000 shares for $60. If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.

    Are there any polls that show how people feel about Zuck?

    Does people’s use of Facebook translate to like of Zuck?

    Does the publuc think of him as a businessman or a nerdy kid computer programmer?

    I have no sense for these questions.

    However, I can say, visually, if he goes suddenly from hoodies to suits, he’s going to look to everyone like a little kid playing dress-up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    There have been only a few polls for 2020 that include him. They show Biden and Bernie beating Trump by double digits ans Zuck and the rest tying him or ahead by a little.

    Zuck is worth $70 billion. Hillary and Trump put together in 2016 spent about 1.2b.

    He has a boyish face and rosey cheeks. That will improve a little by 2019, but he will have to do something about that to look more serious and mature. Possibly a tan and shorter haircut would be work. Maybe he could get his face to be more manly with some T patches and lifting weights.
  81. AB- says:

    Are they still doing stop and frisk? On the sly and not an official policy? That worked in the past…that and having a cop or two on every sketchy block in the whole town.

    Read More
  82. BB753 says:
    @Twinkie

    The Baltimore Sun reports that for the first time Baltimore, with a population of less than 620,000, could record more murders in a single year than New York, which has a population of 8.5 million.

    As of Sept. 3, Baltimore has recorded 238 homicides, while New York City has seen 182 murders.
     
    Yes, but the salient comparison should be:

    Baltimore 400,000 blacks. BPD 3,300. 121 blacks per one police personnel.
    NYC 2,000,000 blacks. NYPD 36,000. 56 blacks per one police personnel.

    NY has an insane number of policemen, uh policepersons.

    Read More
  83. anon says: • Disclaimer

    New York is a powerful and wealthy global financial capital. It is always close to #1 in lists of cities … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city
    With the exception of best cities to live in — Like the Mercer List.

    Baltimore is no longer even a regionally important city, having lost its important businesses by 1980.

    So even though you have this nice parallel, New York was never going to turn into Baltimore and Baltimore was going to have trouble maintaining its progress over the last 15-20 years in reducing homicide. Once a city is rich enough, it can live with SJW mayoral rhetoric. Baltimore? Not so much. Or at all.

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  84. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @AnotherDad
    Lot,

    OT, but good comment on Harris. Generally, don't want to run too far with these OT comments. But will say, I think this part you've got wrong:

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)
     
    Zuck strikes me as an extremely bad candidate against Trump. He's far too obviously who/what-interests the Democrat party actually represents, as opposed to their marketing piffle. And then just the atmospherics--running a billionaire egomaniac cancels out a couple of the best attacks on Trump.

    It's obvious who the Democrats should run to win--a smart non-rich white guy with a solid moderate record in office who can run against "Trump the loon". I.e. Bill Clinton. But they don't have a big store of those folks, that's not what the Democratic party is about.

    The person holding all the cards for the next election is Trump. If he can reign in his ego, but nonetheless hit hard to make ideological and legislative progress on a nationalist agenda--the wall, deporting illegals, mandatory E-verify, throttling Muslim immigration, infrastructure--he should be able to get himself re-elected. If he just rants and raves but doesn't accomplish anything, he'll be pretty easy to pick off.

    Zuck has no chance. Everything about him reeks of the dweeb who got shoved into the lockers at school. The American public has never voted for a guy like that, and Trump would take him apart in the debates.

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  85. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Nico

    I think Harris’s argument for election is that she’s super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?
     
    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea. Obama was of course a puppet, as Harris would be, but I don't think they'll choose her. Obama's certainly no Einstein but he's at least smart enough to understand and follow orders. It is not clear that that is the case for Harris. While the Democratic Party has a huge pool of visible minorities to choose from to put up in front, the party promotes them to important positions less often most likely for the simple reason that they have a perennial dearth of *competent* visible minorities for such positions.

    For this reason, *if* current trends continue (though major disruption of one form or another does seem likely at some point not to far down the road), I predict the Democratic elites are likely to remain disproportionately white (gentile or Jew) for some time to come, even after the U.S. becomes majority nonwhite simply because of the "sticky" inertia involved in the party system. Of course, I could be wrong. Intellectually and ideologically Hillary Clinton was in every way the clone of Barack Obama but from all appearances she is far more difficult to control and therefore highly unpredictable. The country, but less obviously the Democratic Party and indeed the left as a whole, dodged a huge bullet in November. The party elite is now feminized to the point where it can no longer rely on traditional inertia of the cadre to stop the selection of a woman *for* her sex at any level. Thus if the party is to supply the first female president, it absolutely has to furnish a no-nonsense administrator not given to acting on histrionic impulses or bloodthirsty excitement. Otherwise they will be exposed for what they really are.

    Kamala Harris is already outclassed. She doesn’t understand that one big important reason Obama got elected is that he hit the road early and spoke everywhere, every small town and fish fry. Ask the average American who she is, and they’ll reply, who? Her history indicates that she doesn’t have Obama’s relentlessness, drive, and campaign stamina. But for a no-name candidate, the latter traits are absolutely necessary. Zuck, though a silly beta guy, understands this, which is why he’s starting so early and popping up like Eleanor Roosevelt in a coal mine.

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  86. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Europeans Europeanize

    Africans Africanize

    Salt-n-Pepper-Lake-City.

    Assault-Lake City

    Read More
  87. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Alec Leamas

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.
     
    I have my doubts - the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with "No red America, No blue America" era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn't punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    I think it has more to do with the fact that Democrats, like all childish thinkers, are attracted by the new and shiny, and Obama was new and shiny, and Hillary wasn’t. The only one Hillary could beat was Bernie, who was even more old and tired than herself.

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  88. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    Patterson and Newark between them have a population 1/20 th that of the City of New York, so you're not going to reduce your homicide rate much by deporting troublesome characters there. There isn't much of a secular trend in homicide rates in either locale over the last 15 years. (The worst year in Paterson had 8 homicides more than the median year; the worst in Newark 21 murders more). There hasn't been much of a noticeable trend in Jersey City, the Oranges, Irvington, or Elizabeth (bar a recent spike in East Orange, co-incident with the city replacing their quite effective mayor). In Mount Vernon and Yonkers, homicide has (if anything) been on a declining trajectory.

    It may have more to do with the fact than when criminals are released from prison, they aren’t able to move back into New York easily because of the housing squeeze and high cost of living.

    Read More
  89. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Ed
    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren't particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    I think NYC crime drop stems from its diversity. Even the majority of blacks in NYC aren't from the USA or descended from American slaves. The Hispanic community has also experienced demographic change as criminally prone ranks of Puerto Ricans has thinned out.

    Trust me: the elite of NYC is the *national* elite of the U.S economically, culturally and even politically. Unlike the elite of any other city, which only has influence in their city or state, the elite of NYC are the people that rule America as a whole. You could say the Manhattan elite is the elite of the elite. That is where the people that rule the whole country reside in. It’s one thing to be elite in San Francisco, Houston, Atlanta or Chicago. It’s a *whole* other level being elite in Manhattan. The elite of NYC is the elite of the whole country.

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  90. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Lugash

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.
     
    Fuck that noise. NYC is either part of the country, or it isn't. If it's part of the country, the rules get applied equally.

    There isn’t enough resources to make every city in America as orderly and safe as NYC. Manhattan is where the national elite lives, and because of that it has a special status. What do you want Manhattan elite to do? To lend these cities their police department?

    “Here, we are lending you our heavily subsidized and superb police force to solve your local crime problems…”

    Other American cities just don’t have the resources that NYC has to deal with criminality and social problems. As the de facto national capital, NYC has a special status. What the Manhattan elite, which is also the national elite, is saying to other American cities is:

    “We can’t solve your local problems for you. We have bigger fish to fry. You should solve your local problems with your local resources.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lugash
    It's not a question of money, dummy. Compare and contrasts NYPD's vast violation of the Fourth Amendment(stop and frisk) versus Joe Arapio's railroading for conducting legit stops and asking immigration status. Or charges of 'profiling' in any other police department. Any realist knows how to reduce crime, we're hamstrung by the wonderful hypocritical elite of New York City.
  91. Wilkey says:
    @Ed
    NYC is lucky that American blacks can't swing elections there. They can in Chicago & Baltimore so the politicians pander to them with soft policing, the results are predictable. On topic Wilmington DE has the highest rate of teen murders in the country.

    http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/crime/2017/09/08/our-babies-killing-each-other/100135370/

    Kids are more likely to be shot in Wilmington than any other U.S. city.
    Arguments start on Facebook and Twitter between young people age 12 to 17 and are frequently settled with guns. They are targeted for seemingly innocuous insults on social media about a girl, a family member or a pair of sneakers. One shooting often begets another and another.
    “Every time you go outside, you have to think about it: Is somebody gonna shoot you today? Are you gonna get robbed today?" asked a 17-year-old who has lost a brother and a best friend to the city's gun violence. "Is this gonna be the last time you see your mom today? And nobody wants to say nothing.”
     

    “NYC is lucky that American blacks can’t swing elections there.”

    I thought de Blasio was the black candidate (snickers)?

    Seriously, though, it seems like NYC has figured out how to downplay the importance of the black vote even though they’re ~25% of the population (and, given NYC’s large immigrant population, probably a higher % of voters). NYC has a smarter population of whites than lots of other cities that is better at faking leftwing platitudes while willing to do what needs to be done, when necessary. They may have doomed the country as a whole with their stand on immigration, etc., but they are damn good at holding on to what is theirs. They put the Ku Klux Klan to shame.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I don't know, if you had lived in NYC, you'd be wishing you were living in the sticks those men in white have hung onto.

    That place, even the vaunted Upper East Side, is a run down, dog p*ss everywhere, crazy homeless infested, rude black infested, high tax, incompetent NAMs everywhere you look, cesspool. Not exactly a diamond in the rough they're holding onto.

  92. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    “If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary.”

    Zuckerberg has precisely zero chance of winning the primary. I think you guys are seeing what you want to: “he’s white and not a leftist nut, so yay Zuckerberg.”

    1. He will lose the South because he’s not black (see Bernie Sanders).

    2. He will lose the Rust Belt because he’s a tech guy and free trader.

    3. He will turn off at least a portion of the party elders because he’s Jewish, and they think that middle America may run from him like they did with Romney and his weirdo religion.

    4. He’s not the kind of billionaire people aspire to, unlike Trump – a guy with a flashy wife, a Manhattan penthouse, a plane, celebrity, and beautiful children.

    Zuckerberg is a dork who runs a company a lot of people hate and only use because an alternative has yet to present itself.

    5. He has a Chinese wife and you can bet that will be an issue. The right will do to Zuckerberg and his China connection what the left has tried to do with Russia and Trump. There will be allegations that she is a spy and that this could be a Chinese coup against our government. The left will have little ammunition to combat that as they have hypocritically done the same to Trump.

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    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    This is pretty reasonable analysis versus the big brain pundit thinking around here that sees a spergy robot who is rich because of stock options as a threat to the most charismatic politician since Bill Clinton.
    , @Truth
    If they want Zuckerberg as president they will manipulate media spin, his opponents and the results so that he is president. Don't be a simp, Bro. Do you think the clown we have as president now is the most qualified person in America to be president.
    , @Redman
    Totally agree. Is he even old enough to run in 2020?

    If so, he's a complete dork with zero sex appeal. So no female votes. All the other points of anon are dead on.
  93. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the "de facto" capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc...

    But the elite of NYC has "double duties": they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC's elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC's elite is basically the "boss" of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show "Gossip Girl" was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan's elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is "The Great American City". It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not "U.S.A Today", but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC's Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the "ultimate" for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman's city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it's main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it's true that the rules that apply to NYC don't apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a "protectorate" of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Getting NYC, particularly Manhattan, cut down to size is Job One for any practicable “conservative” or “reformist” movement, as opposed to Pierce or Covington kick-over-the-old-regime revolutionism.

    9/11 would have been the perfect opportunity had we not had a “conservative” president that eagerly did to Elliot Abrams, Paul Wolfowitz, Doug Feith and the like what Madonna promised to do for Hillary voters (but backed down on.)

    (Can anyone find the clip of Adrien Brody grilling Norman Reedus over “you gave him some skull, didn’t you?” in Six Ways to Sunday? )

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  94. Lot says:
    @Unladen Swallow
    Where are the Dems going to pick up seats? They can't gerrymander any more majority black ones, and a third of their delegation comes from just 3 states right now. BLM and Antifa have given them a bad reputation going into 2018.

    You can check Cook Political Report’s race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.

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    • Replies: @Alec Leamas
    I don't buy it, because Democrats can't seem to get their voters out in non-Presidential election years. Maybe Trump hate will be enough to buck the trend, but I doubt it. I'm not saying there won't be losses, just that a wave doesn't seem likely to me.
    , @EriK
    Elise is Paul Ryan Jr. which isn't a bonus for her in the next election.

    But the Dems are seriously divided in their primary. She's not gonna be easy to beat.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson

    A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik
     
    She does not understand immigration. If she did, I'd bet on her re-election.
    , @FPD72
    Elise won 63% of the vote in 2016, after endorsing Trump. What makes you think that in an off year election the Democrats will make up that size of a margin?
  95. “after that fat black guy selling contraband cigarettes died of a heart attack ”
    Selling singles was not an arrestable offence.
    The filth who assualted him was guilty of manslaughter, at least.

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    • Replies: @Bernardista
    The coroner ruled his death to be a homicide. Officer Panteleo still works for the NYPD at a desk job, scooping up thousands of dollars in overtime.
  96. Tiny Duck says:

    Maybe if underrepresented trio his were in the police force this stuff wouldn’t happen

    The white suiescy on down donat here is dividing g and needs to go the way if the Dudu

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  97. @Lot
    You can check Cook Political Report's race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.

    I don’t buy it, because Democrats can’t seem to get their voters out in non-Presidential election years. Maybe Trump hate will be enough to buck the trend, but I doubt it. I’m not saying there won’t be losses, just that a wave doesn’t seem likely to me.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.

    I see some upside to us losing the House narrowly in 2018. It would hopefully mean Ryan would be out as party leader. He is one of the 15 or so GOP house members who are very hardcore pro amnesty. Most possible replacements would be better.

    It could also encourage Trump to make deals with the house dems on middle class tax cuts, or at worst block another big tax cut for the 1%.

    A big 2018 win for the Dems could also lead them to be arrogant and complacent about 2020 the way they were in 2016.
  98. Lot says:
    @res
    But do we have the data and graphics I asked for?
    - Year by year correlations across cities of %black with homicide rate through 2016. If there was an increase that would help validate the Ferguson Effect idea.
    - Scatterplot(s, ideally aggregated and per year both available) of homicide rate vs. percent black. This would help highlight the topic of Steve's post: Baltimore and NYC as outliers. Comparing more recent years to the historical data would also help validate the Ferguson Effect.

    I have seen some analysis like that, but nothing as well organized as Ron's work. And yes, I realize the primary point of Ron's article was to look at Hispanic crime rates in particular. As he says in an early paragraph:

    This contentious history of racially-charged social analysis was certainly in the back of my mind when I began my quantitative research into Hispanic crime rates in late 2009. One traditional difficulty in producing such estimates had been the problematical nature of the data. Although the FBI Uniform Crime Reports readily show the annual totals of black and Asian criminal perpetrators, Hispanics are generally grouped together with whites and no separate figures are provided, thereby allowing all sorts of extreme speculation by those so inclined.
     
    Regarding this:

    The black murder rate, as high as it is officially, is greatly understated since unsolved murders are even blacker than solved ones based on the identity and location of the victims.
     
    I agree and have made this point a number of times based on a cursory inspection of the unsolved vs. solved murder victim data. Do you know of any rigorous analysis of this sort?

    I am not aware of any attempt to adjust murder rates for unsolved cases. The Color of Crime report covers race and crime issues better than any other source, so give that a read if you want to see the best data.

    I can give you a rough but I think fairly accurate guess that murder rates to adjust for unsolved crimes would increase the black rate about 80% and the non-black rate by about 30%.

    Thus the black/non black murder ratio is more like 11-1 rather than the reported 8-1.

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  99. @Big Bill
    Don't discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps's car, let alone "run over" by it, but SJWs are still beating the "three killed by Nazis in Charlottesville" drum.

    Don’t discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps’s car, let alone “run over” by it, but SJWs are still beating the “three killed by Nazis in Charlottes

    As per one of our esteemed jewish commenters, this is anti-semitism. No shit. An isteve regular commenter said it was anti-semetic to discuss the obese heather hyer’s cause of death

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  100. “I have my doubts – the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with “No red America, No blue America” era Obama.”

    The story I heard is that Clinton mainly staffed her campaign with trusted long time associates. As a result a lot of talented young political operatives who would have been happy to work for her were frozen out and decided they had nothing to lose by joining the Obama campaign.

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  101. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @res
    Ron presented a graphic of crime correlation with %black for cities over 250k in his 2013 race and crime article: http://www.unz.com/runz/race-and-crime-in-america/

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/BlackCrimeCities250k.jpg

    Focusing on homicides and comparing across races really drives the point home:

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/HomicideRatesCities250k.jpg

    Has anyone updated that data to include post-Ferguson effect numbers?

    Has anyone used that data to create a scatterplot of murder rate vs. %black by city? It would be interesting to see how much of an outlier both Baltimore and NYC are.

    Nearly all academians would consider that 0.8 correlation to be a strong positive correlation if you left off what was being correlated.

    Interesting that there is a negative correlation for whites, but it makes sense, given the idea of a whitetopia.

    Cue Occam’s Butterknife by Tiny Duck, Nick Diaz, Truth and Corvinus in 5,4,3,2,1…

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    • Replies: @Yak-15
    P-value?
    , @Truth
    ...I missed my cue, can we go to break and start again?
  102. Lot says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I don't buy it, because Democrats can't seem to get their voters out in non-Presidential election years. Maybe Trump hate will be enough to buck the trend, but I doubt it. I'm not saying there won't be losses, just that a wave doesn't seem likely to me.

    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.

    I see some upside to us losing the House narrowly in 2018. It would hopefully mean Ryan would be out as party leader. He is one of the 15 or so GOP house members who are very hardcore pro amnesty. Most possible replacements would be better.

    It could also encourage Trump to make deals with the house dems on middle class tax cuts, or at worst block another big tax cut for the 1%.

    A big 2018 win for the Dems could also lead them to be arrogant and complacent about 2020 the way they were in 2016.

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.
     
    As Ann Coulter points out, Bush made immigration amnesty his signature issue going into 2006. Stupid war, stupid amnesty, and nobody wants to vote for you.
    , @Unladen Swallow
    The hate against Trump among Dems is higher, however that doesn't swing many elections. By 2006 however, both swing voters and a fair number of Republicans voted for the Democrats ( Or stayed home), the support for Bush II had pretty much evaporated. I dont sense GOP voters defecting, and the swing voters seem indifferent, this is also is not like 1982 with an economy sinking into a deep recession.
  103. @Art Deco
    Not sure I buy this the elite in NYC aren’t particularly local to NY. They are well insulated from the criminal riff raff through an army of servants.

    Other than office-holders with scads of security and chamber staff (i.e. Gov. Cuomo and Mayor di Blasio), I doubt you're going to find much of a domestic staff in the lives of today's wealthy (except for the plutocratic element). Take Ted Cruz and his wife. They've had periods in their marriage when they had a 7 figure income, she has a demanding and lucrative job, and he's traveling all the time. They employ a housekeeper (who resides with them), and that's all.

    What did you think of Theodore Dalrymple’s comment that the middle class in India has it better than the upper classes of the west simply because they can afford scads of servants to do all their work for them?

    Probably in the West we don’t need tons of servants because we have such good infrastructure and affordable labor-saving devices. Also, one can hire the help part-time and avoid having living expenses and full-time benefits. By this I mean a landscaper, a pool service, a pest service, a dog walker, after school babysitting, that sort of thing. Heck, if you get a house-cleaner to come in once a month you can have a pretty tidy life.

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  104. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Wilkey
    "NYC is lucky that American blacks can’t swing elections there."

    I thought de Blasio was the black candidate (snickers)?

    Seriously, though, it seems like NYC has figured out how to downplay the importance of the black vote even though they're ~25% of the population (and, given NYC's large immigrant population, probably a higher % of voters). NYC has a smarter population of whites than lots of other cities that is better at faking leftwing platitudes while willing to do what needs to be done, when necessary. They may have doomed the country as a whole with their stand on immigration, etc., but they are damn good at holding on to what is theirs. They put the Ku Klux Klan to shame.

    I don’t know, if you had lived in NYC, you’d be wishing you were living in the sticks those men in white have hung onto.

    That place, even the vaunted Upper East Side, is a run down, dog p*ss everywhere, crazy homeless infested, rude black infested, high tax, incompetent NAMs everywhere you look, cesspool. Not exactly a diamond in the rough they’re holding onto.

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  105. Lot says:

    Russians, Koreans and Frenchmen smash and loot Florida stores during Irma.

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  106. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Lot
    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump's tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

    “If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. ”

    These gov’t gimme ideas don’t really work. It just encourages inflation or gets frivolously spent in ways that are less wise than when someone worked for it. And being that it comes from the government, it means that it costs $7000 per person instead of $3500, because they will increase their bureaucracy to manage it, foolishly waste lots of it, etc. And in the end the taxpayer pays for it, which falls squarely on the backs of those middle class families it purports to help. It seems likely that the middle class citizen would have been better off without it.

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  107. Corn says:
    @Flip
    I saw a quote from her defending the kangaroo court college rape trials, and she clearly doesn't believe in due process or the rights of the accused.

    Kamala Harris is basically a female Obama: In a multicultural society some are more equal than others.

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  108. Eagle Eye says:
    @Lot
    OT

    California is moving its primary to right after the four early states. This should be a boost to Kamala Harris, who is now, just barely, the front runner in the 2020 primary on predictit.

    My impression of her:

    Married at 49 to a 48 year old multimillionaire white corporate lawyer. No children.

    Probably not very smart. Went to Howard then Hastings Law School. A black applicant to law school would need an IQ of about 130 to get into Stanford, maybe lower since her father was a professor there.

    She'd need about a 125 for Berkeley law, which still had affirmative action when she applied.

    Instead she went to the #3 law school in the Bay Area. So maybe about 120. Talk about regression to the mean! Both her parents were much smarter.

    Her politics are relatively conservative for the bay area. She appears to have fought off in good faith a lot of left wing activist suits against the state gov. A hard core leftist would have settled or refused to defend them.

    Her tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA's office seems to show she is a good administrator. She has critics that compare SF to other CA cities, but SF is so unique in demographics I don't think these comparisons work. It is a very safe city other than the projects and homeless, but those were not areas under her supervision. Also, the hoodrats in the projects do not even seem to try to control the nice areas directly across the street.

    She would be among the weaker candidates in 2020 against Trump or Pence, so I wish her luck. (I think Zuck and Liz Warren would be the best for the Dems and Cory Booker the weakest.)

    [Kamala Harris'] tenure as head of the SF Crim Section of the DA’s office seems to show she is a good administrator.

    Talk in San Francisco is she was 100% focused on promoting No. 1, disinterested in routine tasks and often absent from the office.

    Note her well-timed affair with Dem power house Willie Brown in the 1990s. Also remember Indians due to their history have spent thousands of years perfecting the art of propitiating and benefiting from the powerful. (BTW who was banging her during her time in SF? Gavin Newsom?)

    Looking through Kamala’s operational decisions, she always seemed to go with the option most likely to benefit her long-term, whether defending a corrupt DA or opposing the death penalty in San Francisco.

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  109. Hibernian says:
    @Alec Leamas

    I mean, New York’s murder rate is impressive by American standards. It looks like they’ll close out the year with a rate of about 3.2 per 100,000. That would be pretty low even in much of flyover country. Utah’s homicide rate last year was about 3.0 per 100,000.
     
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    “In Paterson that’s just the way things were….”

    “The charge was murder one
    And guess who testified
    Bello and Bramley
    And they both lied
    The newspapers
    Went along for the ride…”

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  110. Hibernian says:
    @Alec Leamas
    I think Harris's argument for election is that she's super-diverse all in one: half black, half Indian, all uterus-possessing. Is that really where the country is right now? Would the Democrats pre-arranging the Superdelegates double down on identity politics?

    Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did.

    Wouldn't the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don't actually hate them as much as it seems they do?

    It would be a cold day in hell when they would nominate Manchin.

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  111. EriK says:
    @Lot
    You can check Cook Political Report's race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.

    Elise is Paul Ryan Jr. which isn’t a bonus for her in the next election.

    But the Dems are seriously divided in their primary. She’s not gonna be easy to beat.

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  112. @Jack Ryan Chicago
    Yep

    I was in New York City during almost worst years 1985-90

    Civilization collapsed under Mayor Dinkins.

    Mayor Bloomberg was typical Lib immigration idiot but at least he backed the NYPD.

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me

    Cuckservatives Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan, Orin Hatch, lisping Lindsey Graham, George Will wouldn't t last a week in early 90s New York City.

    Read Bonfire of the Vanities, Death Wish and Camp of the Saints.

    Libertarians and Constitutionalist are also worthless in such NYC time and places .

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me

    How come your moniker is not “Jack Ryan New York City” instead of “Jack Ryan Chicago”?

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    • Replies: @jack ryan
    Yours is a good question. The answer is that I was born and raised SS Chicago (Where Obama moved to) and have lived 2/3 of my life here. I was only in New York City for 5 years, though it felt like 25 years. Mine stay in New York City was sort of like a Viet Nam double tour of duty - and yes it was a combat zone.

    So, I see myself as closely linked to President Trump, R Guliani, NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly as we are all combat veterans of the worst crime, racial, immigration, Islamic terrorism of the worst NYC years 1985-94.

    A key difference is that New York City produced tough guy strong men like the ones I mentioned that took back the streets of New York City and restored civilization and regular voters in Red States instinctively felt that with Donald Trump. Chicago has not produced such tough guys especially in politics - we've never elected a Republican mayor.

    I hope that answers your question.

    J Ryan
    AllRightChicago
    jackryanod@protonmail.com
  113. @Lot
    We will find out if Trump does anything pretty soon. It is about 50/50 on us losing the house and even if we hold it it will be a thin non working majority. So really if we will get anything good done it will be before the Aug 2018 recess.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich.

    The only consistent part of trump's tax proposals is a big cut to corporate rates. A nice Valentine gift to the corporate elites that hate him instead of the people that actually voted for him. And I am sure Javanka is pushing him on the estate tax, 100% of which will go to the rich since it applies only to $5 million+ estates now, and more like $10 million with some basic tax planning.

    If Trump wanted to he could provide a $3500/yr tax cut to every middle class family and set the economy on fire and make himself very popular in swing states. Take a family with 70k earned between two jobs. After taxes, mortgage, daycare, car, healthcare, utility and insurance payments they might have 10k in disposable income to cover eveything else above their monthly bills. Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires and big corps, would actually be spent on real goods and services, not moved to bonds, stocks, bank accounts, and positional goods, contributing to asset bubbles and the worldwide savings glut.

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich… Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires

    Somehow taking residence in Washington D.C. reduces the IQ of all inhabitants. I expected Trump to disappoint. I did not expect Trump to become stupid. But, to quote the great Forrest Gump: “Stupid is as stupid does.”

    BTW, even had I known, I still would have voted for him. And, unless he caves on immigration, I’ll vote for him again.

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    • Replies: @Autochthon
    He's akready caved on immigration: the Seabees are not building a wall in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California; he "love[s] the dreamers illegal aliens"; and he's exercised none of his constitutonal authority to stop the invasions by so-called "refugees" or to stop the H1-B and related scams.

    Like Zuckerburg, he will have his immigration reform be Comprehensive...Big League.
  114. @Lot
    You can check Cook Political Report's race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.

    A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    She does not understand immigration. If she did, I’d bet on her re-election.

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  115. Thea says:
    @Alec Leamas

    White Christians make up less than 30% of the Dem party. Also if you’re white and still a Dem chances are you either agree with its cultural shift to the left or it’s not an issue.
     
    But the problem for the Dems is that lots of white Christian middle class types live in the states of their former "Big Blue Wall" in the Great Lakes region - PA, OH, MI, WI, etc.

    And identity politics is sort of like trying to win a regatta by serially tossing members of your crew overboard to make the ship sail faster under less weight. It works right up until it doesn't work and things go all screwey.

    It may not work but identity politics does appear to be here to stay. Probably not us working is a feature rather than a bug but what do I know

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  116. @Lot
    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.

    I see some upside to us losing the House narrowly in 2018. It would hopefully mean Ryan would be out as party leader. He is one of the 15 or so GOP house members who are very hardcore pro amnesty. Most possible replacements would be better.

    It could also encourage Trump to make deals with the house dems on middle class tax cuts, or at worst block another big tax cut for the 1%.

    A big 2018 win for the Dems could also lead them to be arrogant and complacent about 2020 the way they were in 2016.

    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.

    As Ann Coulter points out, Bush made immigration amnesty his signature issue going into 2006. Stupid war, stupid amnesty, and nobody wants to vote for you.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    On top the war and amnesty, he also tried to privatize social security.
  117. Tyrion says:
    @27 year old

    Don’t discount heart attacks. Heather Heyer died of a heart attack in Charlottesville. There is no evidence she was even touched by the perps’s car, let alone “run over” by it, but SJWs are still beating the “three killed by Nazis in Charlottes
     
    As per one of our esteemed jewish commenters, this is anti-semitism. No shit. An isteve regular commenter said it was anti-semetic to discuss the obese heather hyer's cause of death

    No-one said that…ever.

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  118. Thea says:

    Testosterone levels decrease in a long relationship. In addition to single motherhood, the collapse of black family life could be affecting black crime in another way by keeping their men immature.

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    • Replies: @AB-

    Testosterone levels decrease in a long relationship. In addition to single motherhood, the collapse of black family life could be affecting black crime in another way by keeping their men immature.
     
    For at least 200,000 years, Africans have had a female dominated culture. In a tropical climate, a womyn on her own can raise or gather enough food to feed herself and kids. The guys were sperm donors and occasional hunters to bring in some animal protein and fat. Otherwise, they just hung out and got drunk with whatever fermented beverage they could make. Or getting into whatever bad behaviour they could do.

    The womyn ran the show.

    The gay mullato went to visit a village out in the jungle. He says to one of the minions; "Womyn and kids, no men. Just like in Chicago, NYC, or D.C."

    There really wasn't that much of family to collapse....
  119. Lot says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.
     
    As Ann Coulter points out, Bush made immigration amnesty his signature issue going into 2006. Stupid war, stupid amnesty, and nobody wants to vote for you.

    On top the war and amnesty, he also tried to privatize social security.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    So there are some giant factors that make 2018 and 2006 two distinct time periods?

    What a shocker.
  120. Lot says:
    @Chrisnonymous
    Tax reform would be a real accomplishment for him. He could get one time goodwill votes from lower-income people, too, who may have to spend hours on forms just to show they don't owe anything. But I don't think either party is truly interested in major tax reform.

    The IRS would like to send pre-filled tax forms to the many people who year after year have no income other than their fully reported job income, but HR Block lobbies to stop this because it likes ripping off proles with usurious tax refund anticipation loans.

    California has a free Turbotax style website for doing your state income tax. The IRS was specifically prohibited from doing the same by Congress on behalf of the same lobbyists.

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    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    I didn't know about the HR Block lobby. That's pretty disgusting.
  121. AB- says:
    @Thea
    Testosterone levels decrease in a long relationship. In addition to single motherhood, the collapse of black family life could be affecting black crime in another way by keeping their men immature.

    Testosterone levels decrease in a long relationship. In addition to single motherhood, the collapse of black family life could be affecting black crime in another way by keeping their men immature.

    For at least 200,000 years, Africans have had a female dominated culture. In a tropical climate, a womyn on her own can raise or gather enough food to feed herself and kids. The guys were sperm donors and occasional hunters to bring in some animal protein and fat. Otherwise, they just hung out and got drunk with whatever fermented beverage they could make. Or getting into whatever bad behaviour they could do.

    The womyn ran the show.

    The gay mullato went to visit a village out in the jungle. He says to one of the minions; “Womyn and kids, no men. Just like in Chicago, NYC, or D.C.”

    There really wasn’t that much of family to collapse….

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  122. Lot says:
    @Chrisnonymous
    Are there any polls that show how people feel about Zuck?

    Does people's use of Facebook translate to like of Zuck?

    Does the publuc think of him as a businessman or a nerdy kid computer programmer?

    I have no sense for these questions.

    However, I can say, visually, if he goes suddenly from hoodies to suits, he's going to look to everyone like a little kid playing dress-up.

    There have been only a few polls for 2020 that include him. They show Biden and Bernie beating Trump by double digits ans Zuck and the rest tying him or ahead by a little.

    Zuck is worth $70 billion. Hillary and Trump put together in 2016 spent about 1.2b.

    He has a boyish face and rosey cheeks. That will improve a little by 2019, but he will have to do something about that to look more serious and mature. Possibly a tan and shorter haircut would be work. Maybe he could get his face to be more manly with some T patches and lifting weights.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    "Polls show..."

    You learned absolutely nothing. Thanks for underlining this fact for us.
  123. @Peter Johnson
    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates. So if the NYPD allocates police resources to balance crime-per-officer in each local district, then the African American districts must be much more heavily policed than in Baltimore. Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.

    It’s almost like New Yorkers want the most criminally inclined blacks to move out of New York City, so they go about trying to make rest of the country more poorly policed.

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    • Replies: @Truth
    And they would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for these meddling kids...
  124. Lugash says:
    @Anonymous
    There isn't enough resources to make every city in America as orderly and safe as NYC. Manhattan is where the national elite lives, and because of that it has a special status. What do you want Manhattan elite to do? To lend these cities their police department?

    "Here, we are lending you our heavily subsidized and superb police force to solve your local crime problems..."

    Other American cities just don't have the resources that NYC has to deal with criminality and social problems. As the de facto national capital, NYC has a special status. What the Manhattan elite, which is also the national elite, is saying to other American cities is:

    "We can't solve your local problems for you. We have bigger fish to fry. You should solve your local problems with your local resources."

    It’s not a question of money, dummy. Compare and contrasts NYPD’s vast violation of the Fourth Amendment(stop and frisk) versus Joe Arapio’s railroading for conducting legit stops and asking immigration status. Or charges of ‘profiling’ in any other police department. Any realist knows how to reduce crime, we’re hamstrung by the wonderful hypocritical elite of New York City.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    It*is* a matter of money, dummy. NYC has more cops per 10,000 inhabitants than almost anywhere else. NYPD is heavily subsidized, and has superior training, weaponry and intelligence gathering. It has the best SWAT team of any police department. The city of New York collects more taxes than most of the World's nations. This allows them to invest heavily in infra-structure, social programs to keep the poor under control and the best security forces in the country.

    What you are mentioning is nonsense. The "stop and frisk" policy is not a violation of the 4th Amendment. You clearly don't understand Constitutional Law. Most policies that decide the procedures and conduct of the police department are decided by the city council and mayor, and not even by the state, let alone the federal government. And even though NYC is the "de facto" capital of the country, matters of police procedure are up to municipal government in NYC just like in any other city. Again, what you claim is nonsense.

    You could adopt the "stop and frisk" policy elsewhere, which, unlike what you believe, is perfectly legal, and it still wouldn't bring crime down to the level of NYC. You would still need the sheer number of cops to do the thorough policing, you would still need the intelligence gathering resources to find criminals and discover crime bosses, and you would still need the superior training so that the police doesen't screw up doing those tasks. All of this costs money. I was recently in NYC, and I walked down a street where some foreign dignitary was passing through. There were some ~200 cops with AR-15s, bullet-proof vests, gas masks and 2 heavily armored vehicles. All those were from the NYPD, and not the military. Each one of those cops had literally thousands of Dollars of equipment and weaponry with them. The vast majority of police forces throughout the country could not afford a fraction of this. NYC just has much, much, much more resources available to it than any other city in the country.

    Don't say nonsense, dummy.

  125. FPD72 says:
    @Lot
    You can check Cook Political Report's race ratings. Most of the losses will be seats the GOP picked up in its 2010 wave where Trump got less than 47% of the vote. A few in the NE look like certain goners, unfortunately including our youngest and best looking congresswoman:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elise_Stefanik

    Polling and individual race fundraising actually point to a disaster for us in the House, big enough to overcome our gerrymanders. Conventional wisdom is that it is so early things will swing at least partly back to us.

    Elise won 63% of the vote in 2016, after endorsing Trump. What makes you think that in an off year election the Democrats will make up that size of a margin?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Its Lot man.

    Once he makes a decision no amount of contrary evidence is gonna sway him.

    Ignore the fact that the Republicans are 4 for 4 in off races so far (with the Dems losing a seat they spent 40 MILLION+) to try and win and where still BTFO.

    Here's some charts and stuff. Just ignore what your lying eyes tell you about what's going on out there and listen to Lot's tangled barrel of fish hooks analogies.
  126. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Lugash
    It's not a question of money, dummy. Compare and contrasts NYPD's vast violation of the Fourth Amendment(stop and frisk) versus Joe Arapio's railroading for conducting legit stops and asking immigration status. Or charges of 'profiling' in any other police department. Any realist knows how to reduce crime, we're hamstrung by the wonderful hypocritical elite of New York City.

    It*is* a matter of money, dummy. NYC has more cops per 10,000 inhabitants than almost anywhere else. NYPD is heavily subsidized, and has superior training, weaponry and intelligence gathering. It has the best SWAT team of any police department. The city of New York collects more taxes than most of the World’s nations. This allows them to invest heavily in infra-structure, social programs to keep the poor under control and the best security forces in the country.

    What you are mentioning is nonsense. The “stop and frisk” policy is not a violation of the 4th Amendment. You clearly don’t understand Constitutional Law. Most policies that decide the procedures and conduct of the police department are decided by the city council and mayor, and not even by the state, let alone the federal government. And even though NYC is the “de facto” capital of the country, matters of police procedure are up to municipal government in NYC just like in any other city. Again, what you claim is nonsense.

    You could adopt the “stop and frisk” policy elsewhere, which, unlike what you believe, is perfectly legal, and it still wouldn’t bring crime down to the level of NYC. You would still need the sheer number of cops to do the thorough policing, you would still need the intelligence gathering resources to find criminals and discover crime bosses, and you would still need the superior training so that the police doesen’t screw up doing those tasks. All of this costs money. I was recently in NYC, and I walked down a street where some foreign dignitary was passing through. There were some ~200 cops with AR-15s, bullet-proof vests, gas masks and 2 heavily armored vehicles. All those were from the NYPD, and not the military. Each one of those cops had literally thousands of Dollars of equipment and weaponry with them. The vast majority of police forces throughout the country could not afford a fraction of this. NYC just has much, much, much more resources available to it than any other city in the country.

    Don’t say nonsense, dummy.

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  127. Ron Unz says:

    On a very different note, so far this year homicides in San Jose (pop=1M) are down something like 40% from last year, giving the city a reasonable shot at reclaiming its title of being the safest major city in America. Crime had actually been up quite a bit the last few years, partly because stupid budgetary policies had reduced the number of police officers by over 35%.

    Being in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose policing is naturally quite “liberal,” with nothing remotely like NYC’s harsh “stop-and-frisk” policy. The police force is also *ridiculously* small compared to NYC, with the latter having 8x the population but a remarkable 40x(!!) the number of officers. Or using a different comparison, San Jose has 2.5x Baltimore’s population, but roughly 1/4 of its police force.

    For the benefit of those unaware of such things, I’d also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant (and very often illegal) background.

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a “soft” approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates…

    Read More
    • Replies: @BostonTea
    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.
    , @Truth



    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a “soft” approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates…
     
    ...The multimillionaire computer programmer/ politicians have the latest in high-tech home security.
    , @bjdubbs
    High rents select for low-crime Hispanics. Seriously Ron, you can do better than that.
    , @Twinkie

    I’d also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic... the mysterious factor...
     
    Hmmm, I wonder which large (in San Jose) hypo-criminally-oriented ethnic group was left out in your characterization of San Jose...

    And I wonder how many of those mysterious missing folks are in Baltimore... Something like 2% of the population, I reckon.
    Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant...
    The problems with Hispanic immigrants are not criminal (except immigration laws) in nature. They are labor-related and those that relate to negative externalities such as school/medical care costs (and in a more broad sense, cultural).

    Everyone who is even borderline literate knows that foreign-born Mexicans, for example, have somewhat lower incarceration rates than native-born whites do (immigrants are fearful and toe the line, by and large). Of course, the problems with that is that the AMERICAN-BORN Mexicans are a different story, as the Migration Policy Institute noted in its study of "the paradox of assimilation" research. They display 7 times the incarceration rate of their foreign-born counterparts and far exceed native-born whites... which means the children of these somewhat hypo-criminal folks will be hyper-criminal (unlike that mysterious missing ethnic group of San Jose, who, despite the curse of the assimilation, still has lower rates of incarceration than do native whites).

    See: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/debunking-myth-immigrant-criminality-imprisonment-among-first-and-second-generation-young/
  128. @Bill Jones
    "after that fat black guy selling contraband cigarettes died of a heart attack "
    Selling singles was not an arrestable offence.
    The filth who assualted him was guilty of manslaughter, at least.

    The coroner ruled his death to be a homicide. Officer Panteleo still works for the NYPD at a desk job, scooping up thousands of dollars in overtime.

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  129. @a reader

    I find it amazing how hard and fast Wilmington has gone downhill in a decade.

    The cancer keeps spreading south in Delaware and metastazing. Dover is seeing people killed on a regular basis now, where even five years ago it would be a week long news story.

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  130. @FPD72
    Elise won 63% of the vote in 2016, after endorsing Trump. What makes you think that in an off year election the Democrats will make up that size of a margin?

    Its Lot man.

    Once he makes a decision no amount of contrary evidence is gonna sway him.

    Ignore the fact that the Republicans are 4 for 4 in off races so far (with the Dems losing a seat they spent 40 MILLION+) to try and win and where still BTFO.

    Here’s some charts and stuff. Just ignore what your lying eyes tell you about what’s going on out there and listen to Lot’s tangled barrel of fish hooks analogies.

    Read More
  131. @Anon
    "If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary."

    Zuckerberg has precisely zero chance of winning the primary. I think you guys are seeing what you want to: "he's white and not a leftist nut, so yay Zuckerberg."

    1. He will lose the South because he's not black (see Bernie Sanders).

    2. He will lose the Rust Belt because he's a tech guy and free trader.

    3. He will turn off at least a portion of the party elders because he's Jewish, and they think that middle America may run from him like they did with Romney and his weirdo religion.

    4. He's not the kind of billionaire people aspire to, unlike Trump - a guy with a flashy wife, a Manhattan penthouse, a plane, celebrity, and beautiful children.

    Zuckerberg is a dork who runs a company a lot of people hate and only use because an alternative has yet to present itself.

    5. He has a Chinese wife and you can bet that will be an issue. The right will do to Zuckerberg and his China connection what the left has tried to do with Russia and Trump. There will be allegations that she is a spy and that this could be a Chinese coup against our government. The left will have little ammunition to combat that as they have hypocritically done the same to Trump.

    This is pretty reasonable analysis versus the big brain pundit thinking around here that sees a spergy robot who is rich because of stock options as a threat to the most charismatic politician since Bill Clinton.

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  132. @Lot
    On top the war and amnesty, he also tried to privatize social security.

    So there are some giant factors that make 2018 and 2006 two distinct time periods?

    What a shocker.

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  133. @Lot
    There have been only a few polls for 2020 that include him. They show Biden and Bernie beating Trump by double digits ans Zuck and the rest tying him or ahead by a little.

    Zuck is worth $70 billion. Hillary and Trump put together in 2016 spent about 1.2b.

    He has a boyish face and rosey cheeks. That will improve a little by 2019, but he will have to do something about that to look more serious and mature. Possibly a tan and shorter haircut would be work. Maybe he could get his face to be more manly with some T patches and lifting weights.

    “Polls show…”

    You learned absolutely nothing. Thanks for underlining this fact for us.

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  134. @Anonymous
    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the "de facto" capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    The elite of NYC is different from the elites of other American cities in an important way: the elite of Chicago is only the local elite of the city. The elite of LA is only the local elite of LA. Likewise, the elite of Houston is only the local elite of Houston. Etc...

    But the elite of NYC has "double duties": they are the local elite of NYC, but they are *also* the national elite of the U.S. These are the people that rule the whole country. Not only is NYC's elite different from the elite of other cities in this regard, but they are also a much more capable and sophisticated elite than that of other American cities. NYC's elite is basically the "boss" of the elite of other American cities. The reason why the show "Gossip Girl" was such a hit is because it shows the life of elite NYC girls, and if you are a cool girl in NYC, you are the coolest of the cool. Likewise, most films and T.V shows featuring the rich and sophisticated feature the rich of NYC for a reason. Americans find Manhattan's elite far more interesting than the elite of anywhere else. The elite of Manhattan is richer and much more sophisticated than the elite of anywhere else. They are a much higher grade of elite. Compared to the elite of Manhattan, the elite of other American cities are a bunch of unsophisticated hicks.

    Basically, NYC is "The Great American City". It is the true national capital, and it sets the tone for the whole country. This is true in every way, from economics to culture and politics. The closest thing that America ever had to a national newspaper, for instance, is not "U.S.A Today", but rather The New York Times. Likewise, NYC's Park Avenue is, today, as it was decades ago, the ultimate in sophisticated living: compared to it, even Beverly Hills is considered mundane and pathetic. Performing at Carnegie Hall is the "ultimate" for any musician playing classical music. The predominance of NYC is true even in fiction. For instance, everyone knows that Metropolis, Superman's city, is actually NYC. Likewise, the reason why Al Qaeda chose NYC as it's main target is obvious since NYC is, by far, the most important city of the country and the most emblematic.

    So it's true that the rules that apply to NYC don't apply to any other city. But that is normal. NYC is a "protectorate" of the national elite since it is the true national capital in every way, culturally, economically and even politically. The most important city of a nation/empire always has a priviledged status. During the time of the Roman Empire, for instance, Rome had a homicide rate and violent crime over 10 times lower than the rest of the empire. The powerful men that ruled the empire would not allow the place they lived to descend into chaos, so it was heavily policed and subsidized to be as safe, clean and orderly as possible.

    But Steve is wrong in that this should apply to all cities. You cannot extend this status to all other cities, Powerful people are still humans, and humans care more about what affects them and their own than others. You cannot expect the people at the top of the national pecking order to care as much about other cities than the city they live in. That is human nature.

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!

    I should note that Joel Garrieau wrote of Manhattan as ‘Nation’-less anomaly in his 1980 Nine Nations of North America

    Still, I’m not sure about that. LA has Hollywood; Silicon Valley is basically the USA’s last great industrial cluster, along Huston’s oil and gas industries. And of course Washington, D.C. and its imperial government. Those are powerful industries with powerful elites. I don’t doubt that New York is a powerful, or even the *most* powerful metropolitan center in the US, but I’m not sure it’s at the level of London, Paris, Tokyo, etc. as compared to the rest of the country.

    Nico:

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.

    Pendatic historical note: this was true during the Republic and the early Empire, by the mid to late Empire the city of Rome began to decline in importance, along with its ancient Senatorial classes. It was loosing power to the Equestrians who lived in the Romanizing provinces – even some of the Good Emperors came not from Rome, but from Spain.

    Rome was too far away from the frontiers garrison by the army, which during the Crisis of the Third Century made and broke emperors at will. The Empire was split into two, with the eastern half getting a capital in the New Rome of Constantinople, while the Western Empire had its capital moved to Ravenna until Odoacer shut that venerable institution down.

    OT:

    What does everybody thinking of Jeff Bezos and Amazon’s next large acquisition: a new summer capital* second headquarters, somewhere in North America? Various candidates have been proposed including Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Denver or Toronto.

    Personally, I think the Internet peanut gallery is unfairly dismissing the chances of Southern cities because they are full of Deplorables and their deplorable laws. I doubt cultural politics will be of any importance as compared to the buyablity of the politicians with regards to labour laws and taxes. And Southern politicians are VERY buyable.

    I don’t see them going to a flyover city, as it’s too far away from anywhere else. Nor will it go to Detroit, Baltimore or Mexico(!), as some over commenters wish, because while Amazon is big, it’s not big enough (yet) to buy a Praetorian Guard to clear out the barbarian armies in control of those places.

    If they choose a Canadian city, I think many are overrating Toronto and underrating Montreal (full disclosure: I was born and raised in the latter). Land prices, while not at Vancouver levels, is still extremely high. Also often unmentioned is electricity prices. Hydro-Quebec operates several large dams in the North, which provinces cheap electricity for the province and its neighbours. A big reason that Boeing is in Seattle is access to cheap hydroelectricity; wind tunnels aren’t cheap. Likewise, big data centers are big electricity users. A computer science professor told us a story of how friend who ran a data center asked someone at the power company if they could provide enough power. They replied that they could – if they turn of the mid-sized city next to the data center.

    And of course, they could always establish in the old imperial cities of Washington, D.C. and New York City. Like people, the best way of becoming powerful is having power.

    * This reminds me of Forbidden Palace and Versailles wonders in Civilization 4, which provide the empire who built it a second or third capital, which reduced maintenance costs in nearby cities like the Palace – even though the namesake wonders a built in or near their respective capitals!

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    • Replies: @Hieronymus of Canada
    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the 'official language of the workplace', as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.

    Quebec's politicians, however, are as buyable as any ones out there (maybe even more so). The province has attracted video game companies to Montreal by, among other things, paying a third of the salaries by tax credits. It wouldn't surprise me if similar arrangements could be made with Amazon.
    , @Anonymous
    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World's nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any "elite"; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America's GDP is services, so that doesen't matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC's elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the "de facto" capital.

    That Manhattan's elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don't know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan's elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.
    , @BB753
    My bet is on Amazon picking up Chicago as it's second headquarters. It's got good communications, it's Midwestern but not provincial, a big city with the promise of gentrification, and cheap dem politicians for sale. Admittedly, crime is sky-high now but nothing that can't be fixed by removing the more troublesome Blacks to places like Ferguson.
  135. @Hieronymus of Canada

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!
     
    I should note that Joel Garrieau wrote of Manhattan as 'Nation'-less anomaly in his 1980 Nine Nations of North America

    Still, I'm not sure about that. LA has Hollywood; Silicon Valley is basically the USA's last great industrial cluster, along Huston's oil and gas industries. And of course Washington, D.C. and its imperial government. Those are powerful industries with powerful elites. I don't doubt that New York is a powerful, or even the *most* powerful metropolitan center in the US, but I'm not sure it's at the level of London, Paris, Tokyo, etc. as compared to the rest of the country.

    Nico:

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.
     
    Pendatic historical note: this was true during the Republic and the early Empire, by the mid to late Empire the city of Rome began to decline in importance, along with its ancient Senatorial classes. It was loosing power to the Equestrians who lived in the Romanizing provinces - even some of the Good Emperors came not from Rome, but from Spain.

    Rome was too far away from the frontiers garrison by the army, which during the Crisis of the Third Century made and broke emperors at will. The Empire was split into two, with the eastern half getting a capital in the New Rome of Constantinople, while the Western Empire had its capital moved to Ravenna until Odoacer shut that venerable institution down.

    OT:

    What does everybody thinking of Jeff Bezos and Amazon's next large acquisition: a new summer capital* second headquarters, somewhere in North America? Various candidates have been proposed including Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Denver or Toronto.

    Personally, I think the Internet peanut gallery is unfairly dismissing the chances of Southern cities because they are full of Deplorables and their deplorable laws. I doubt cultural politics will be of any importance as compared to the buyablity of the politicians with regards to labour laws and taxes. And Southern politicians are VERY buyable.

    I don't see them going to a flyover city, as it's too far away from anywhere else. Nor will it go to Detroit, Baltimore or Mexico(!), as some over commenters wish, because while Amazon is big, it's not big enough (yet) to buy a Praetorian Guard to clear out the barbarian armies in control of those places.

    If they choose a Canadian city, I think many are overrating Toronto and underrating Montreal (full disclosure: I was born and raised in the latter). Land prices, while not at Vancouver levels, is still extremely high. Also often unmentioned is electricity prices. Hydro-Quebec operates several large dams in the North, which provinces cheap electricity for the province and its neighbours. A big reason that Boeing is in Seattle is access to cheap hydroelectricity; wind tunnels aren't cheap. Likewise, big data centers are big electricity users. A computer science professor told us a story of how friend who ran a data center asked someone at the power company if they could provide enough power. They replied that they could - if they turn of the mid-sized city next to the data center.

    And of course, they could always establish in the old imperial cities of Washington, D.C. and New York City. Like people, the best way of becoming powerful is having power.

    * This reminds me of Forbidden Palace and Versailles wonders in Civilization 4, which provide the empire who built it a second or third capital, which reduced maintenance costs in nearby cities like the Palace - even though the namesake wonders a built in or near their respective capitals!

    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the ‘official language of the workplace’, as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.

    Quebec’s politicians, however, are as buyable as any ones out there (maybe even more so). The province has attracted video game companies to Montreal by, among other things, paying a third of the salaries by tax credits. It wouldn’t surprise me if similar arrangements could be made with Amazon.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    And, it's Atlanta.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2017/09/11/amazon-picks-atlanta-for-new-logistics-hub-locates.html

    I think this is being made a bigger deal than it is. The office will apparently employ only 150 people.

    Any Seattle-ites making the move will be leaving a city that is basically Reagan's America (70% white, 14% Asian--holy crap). Here's Wiki's Atlanta demographics (the city itself, not the metro area):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta#Demographics

    And this:

    "From 2000 to 2010, the city's black population decreased by 31,678 people, shrinking from 61.4% of the city's population in 2000 to 54.0% in 2010." Three percent more have left since then. My impression is they move south to Clayton and Henry counties and east to Rockdale county.

    BTW, interesting to read from your comment that Montreal crafts a nice little Sun Belt-style tax policy to get tech companies to move there.
    , @Truth

    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the ‘official language of the workplace’, as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.
     
    The fries with gravy and the strip clubs kinda make up for it though. And it's one of the few places hetrosexual dudes still dress well.
  136. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Hieronymus of Canada

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!
     
    I should note that Joel Garrieau wrote of Manhattan as 'Nation'-less anomaly in his 1980 Nine Nations of North America

    Still, I'm not sure about that. LA has Hollywood; Silicon Valley is basically the USA's last great industrial cluster, along Huston's oil and gas industries. And of course Washington, D.C. and its imperial government. Those are powerful industries with powerful elites. I don't doubt that New York is a powerful, or even the *most* powerful metropolitan center in the US, but I'm not sure it's at the level of London, Paris, Tokyo, etc. as compared to the rest of the country.

    Nico:

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.
     
    Pendatic historical note: this was true during the Republic and the early Empire, by the mid to late Empire the city of Rome began to decline in importance, along with its ancient Senatorial classes. It was loosing power to the Equestrians who lived in the Romanizing provinces - even some of the Good Emperors came not from Rome, but from Spain.

    Rome was too far away from the frontiers garrison by the army, which during the Crisis of the Third Century made and broke emperors at will. The Empire was split into two, with the eastern half getting a capital in the New Rome of Constantinople, while the Western Empire had its capital moved to Ravenna until Odoacer shut that venerable institution down.

    OT:

    What does everybody thinking of Jeff Bezos and Amazon's next large acquisition: a new summer capital* second headquarters, somewhere in North America? Various candidates have been proposed including Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Denver or Toronto.

    Personally, I think the Internet peanut gallery is unfairly dismissing the chances of Southern cities because they are full of Deplorables and their deplorable laws. I doubt cultural politics will be of any importance as compared to the buyablity of the politicians with regards to labour laws and taxes. And Southern politicians are VERY buyable.

    I don't see them going to a flyover city, as it's too far away from anywhere else. Nor will it go to Detroit, Baltimore or Mexico(!), as some over commenters wish, because while Amazon is big, it's not big enough (yet) to buy a Praetorian Guard to clear out the barbarian armies in control of those places.

    If they choose a Canadian city, I think many are overrating Toronto and underrating Montreal (full disclosure: I was born and raised in the latter). Land prices, while not at Vancouver levels, is still extremely high. Also often unmentioned is electricity prices. Hydro-Quebec operates several large dams in the North, which provinces cheap electricity for the province and its neighbours. A big reason that Boeing is in Seattle is access to cheap hydroelectricity; wind tunnels aren't cheap. Likewise, big data centers are big electricity users. A computer science professor told us a story of how friend who ran a data center asked someone at the power company if they could provide enough power. They replied that they could - if they turn of the mid-sized city next to the data center.

    And of course, they could always establish in the old imperial cities of Washington, D.C. and New York City. Like people, the best way of becoming powerful is having power.

    * This reminds me of Forbidden Palace and Versailles wonders in Civilization 4, which provide the empire who built it a second or third capital, which reduced maintenance costs in nearby cities like the Palace - even though the namesake wonders a built in or near their respective capitals!

    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World’s nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any “elite”; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America’s GDP is services, so that doesen’t matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC’s elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the “de facto” capital.

    That Manhattan’s elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don’t know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan’s elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hieronymus of Canada
    I think you are thinking that we are further apart on the issue than we actually are. I'm not disputing the urban primacy of New York, which it has held since the formation of the Republic. What I am disputing is just how big it is vis-à-vis the "provinces", i.e. rest of the country when compared internationally. What I am saying is that New York is less powerful compared to the rest of the USA when compared to, say, London is to the rest of the UK, Paris is to the rest of France or Tokyo is to the rest of Japan.

    So for example, in 2014 the GDP of NY metropolitan area was 1.4 trillion dollars, compared to 800 billion in LA metropolitan area and 560 billion in the Chicago metropolitan area. That's a big gap, but it nothing compared to UK, where the GDP of London was 1.2 trillion dollars, compared to 120 billion for Birmingham and 100 billion for Manchester.
    , @StillCARealist
    NYC is the capitol of the world. And all its denizens will tell you so.
    , @KM32
    Money is only one element of power. Los Angeles has huge stores of cultural power, Washington has the ability to nuke the world into a radioactive slag heap, and hundreds of millions of people are using Google or FB at this exact moment.

    Nobody is saying that NYC isn't powerful, just that American power is decentralized to other regions that are, by themselves, some of the most influential and important places on Earth.
    , @Autochthon
    I don't quite understand: How do you really feel about New York?

    (You know, if that thing lasts more than four hours, you really ought to see a physician.)
  137. BostonTea says:
    @Ron Unz
    On a very different note, so far this year homicides in San Jose (pop=1M) are down something like 40% from last year, giving the city a reasonable shot at reclaiming its title of being the safest major city in America. Crime had actually been up quite a bit the last few years, partly because stupid budgetary policies had reduced the number of police officers by over 35%.

    Being in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose policing is naturally quite "liberal," with nothing remotely like NYC's harsh "stop-and-frisk" policy. The police force is also *ridiculously* small compared to NYC, with the latter having 8x the population but a remarkable 40x(!!) the number of officers. Or using a different comparison, San Jose has 2.5x Baltimore's population, but roughly 1/4 of its police force.

    For the benefit of those unaware of such things, I'd also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant (and very often illegal) background.

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a "soft" approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates...

    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Autochthon
    And the finger is put.
    , @The Anti-Gnostic
    And median home price $1 million. And surrounded by super-duper wealthy Palo Alto, San Francisco Bay, and a ring of state parks. So no cheap burbs for developers to throw up wood frame apartments and cram the riff-raff into. Ron's thesis on Hispanic immigration is built on some heavily endogenous premises.

    I don't see how this lasts. California's government is broke and needs tax dollars badly, and at some point the not-so-secret secret pact between the environmental lobby and wealthy white property owners will start attracting attention. There are already rumblings.
    , @Truth
    ...Hey Ron, he just answered your question for you.

    And I'm glad too, it's not like you were being rhetorical or anything. Sometimes you 200IQ geniuses have a hard time figuring things out.

    , @AB-

    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.
     
    Ding, ding, ding; we have a winner! LOL.

    Keep the 'blacks behaving badly' population as small as possible and you don't have much crime.

    I thought Amazon was going to Texass, probably Austin. Business friendly state, lots of libs to hire in Austin, centrally located.
  138. Ed says:
    @Anon7
    Baltimore has been running a social experiment for the past fifty years, white flight followed by black flight to jobs requiring higher cognitive capacity. The result is an inner city with a population that is ungovernable:

    Maryland’s big city, Baltimore, saw its population peak just short of a million in 1950. It has been declining for nearly half a century, 17% in the last twenty years alone. Today it numbers about 651,000. White flight followed by black has drained the city of inhabitants. As its population dwindled, Baltimore like many other Northern and Midwestern cities without significant recent foreign immigration became blacker. Today, Baltimore is 65% African American, and 32% non-Hispanic white...

    Baltimore is typical of many Midwestern and Northern cities, whose demographics were forever changed by the great black migration of the twentieth century. Not unexpectedly we found a cognitive discontinuity at the city line. Surprising, however, was its magnitude. Whereas suburban mean IQs (86 for blacks, 99 for whites) conform more or less to national norms, city IQs are dreadfully low. With a mean IQ of 76, inner-city blacks fall about 0.6 SD below the African American average nationally. More than a third have death-penalty immunity on grounds of mental retardation. The inner-city white mean of 86 is nearly a full standard deviation below the national white average. By this measure, whites fared worse than blacks. …

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/iq-equality-theres-more-in-baltimore-than-elsewhere/

     

    Even if the white mean score of Baltimore city residents is true. I suspect not since there’s been an influx of white professionals. They’re no where near as violent as blacks in the city or even the suburbs.

    It is true Baltimore has a dysfunctional poor white population. Many are descendants of migrants from West Virginia ironically. If you ever drive along RT 1 in Baltimore on a summer day you’ll see them hanging out on their stoops, several with mixed babies running around.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    As I recall, there was an interesting TV series some years back set in Baltimore, Homicide: Life on the Street. They actually had a name for these originally-rural folks like the West Virginia who migrated to Baltimore. They called them City Goats, and there was one whole episode focusing on the Baltimore detectives attempts to get some of these folks to return to Baltimore to face trial for murder. With mixed results, I dimly recollect.
  139. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Truth
    Obama has, now, been out of office since the 1st month of the year.

    Sure, but his BLM still is paying dividends in all those nice black communities…

    Read More
  140. @Lot
    "Wikipedia also says she flunked the bar on the first try just like Hillary did."

    HRC was near the top of her class at a solid college then went to Yale Law, so she is definitely high IQ. If she failed the bar it was for lack of study.

    "Wouldn’t the smart play be to run some Centrist/Conservative white male Democrat like Joe Manchin or the like to reassure white people that the Democrats don’t actually hate them as much as it seems they do?"

    Of course. That is why Obama selected Biden for VP. Zuck being white and male will help him in the both the primary and general if he runs. He needs to pick a few issues where he goes centrist. Gun control would be the smartest in his position. So would a huge middle class tax cut. Make the standard exemption $20,000, or $30,000 for married couples, and another $10,000 for every minor child. A family of four pays 0 income tax on their first 50,000 of income.

    Mark Warner would have been the strongest Dem candidate for president in 08 and 16 if he had run.

    Edit: I am talking myself into buying more. I am going to get another 500 Zucks at 6 and put in a limit order for another 500 at 5. Just him getting in sends him to 30 in my view.

    [Hillary Clinton] was near the top of her class at a solid college then went to Yale Law [School].

    These things do not necessarily indicate high intelligence. What did she study as an undergraduate – chemistry or political science? Did she sleep with any of the professors or administrators? (This second is a serious question; if you’ve worked in academia you know how often it happens; I once worked for a school where the current dean rose to her eventual position by sleeping with the (then married) dean whilst she was still a student….)

    Admission to Yale University is often much more about connections than merit, and I don’t even know that the Law School Admissions Test (“LSAT”)was used yet in Clinton’s day. If it was, tell me her score and I’ll tell you her approximate intelligence quotient (“IQ”) – the LSAT is essentially an IQ test.

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  141. Yak-15 says:
    @Anonymous
    Nearly all academians would consider that 0.8 correlation to be a strong positive correlation if you left off what was being correlated.

    Interesting that there is a negative correlation for whites, but it makes sense, given the idea of a whitetopia.

    Cue Occam's Butterknife by Tiny Duck, Nick Diaz, Truth and Corvinus in 5,4,3,2,1...

    P-value?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    P values?

    http://www.nature.com/nmeth/journal/v13/n2/full/nmeth.3729.html
  142. @Anonymous
    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World's nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any "elite"; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America's GDP is services, so that doesen't matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC's elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the "de facto" capital.

    That Manhattan's elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don't know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan's elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.

    I think you are thinking that we are further apart on the issue than we actually are. I’m not disputing the urban primacy of New York, which it has held since the formation of the Republic. What I am disputing is just how big it is vis-à-vis the “provinces”, i.e. rest of the country when compared internationally. What I am saying is that New York is less powerful compared to the rest of the USA when compared to, say, London is to the rest of the UK, Paris is to the rest of France or Tokyo is to the rest of Japan.

    So for example, in 2014 the GDP of NY metropolitan area was 1.4 trillion dollars, compared to 800 billion in LA metropolitan area and 560 billion in the Chicago metropolitan area. That’s a big gap, but it nothing compared to UK, where the GDP of London was 1.2 trillion dollars, compared to 120 billion for Birmingham and 100 billion for Manchester.

    Read More
  143. Flip says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    OT:

    Steve,

    If I didn't know better, I'd say that this young lady was a fan of yours. Sadly, she's being earnest. Regardless, this WaPo article is pure Steve-bait. It has blacks and real estate, though, unfortunately, I don't think that it has no money down loans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/home-buying-while-black/2017/09/07/133e286a-8995-11e7-a50f-e0d4e6ec070a_story.html?utm_term=.0698d857315e#comments

    Even the Post commenters - who are hilariously PC true believers - are taking her to task. But, of course, they are upset that she sounds kind of racist, which is the root of all the world's evils. Regardless, the contradictions and obviousness in her thinking is fun to see.

    Talk about going through life with a chip on your shoulder.

    Read More
  144. bomag says:
    @Flip
    The mayor of New York sounds like a communist.

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/mayor-de-bolshevik-15430.html

    …the socialists of New York City would “love to have a very, very powerful government,” explained the mayor, “including a federal government, involved in directly addressing their day-to-day reality.”

    It seems to me that every practical aspect of a mainstream average citizen’s life is already regulated and spoken for by the central authorities.

    I suspect deBlasio is excited about the prospect of all powerful central authorities killing their political opponents. He wants some of that juice.

    Now we know about what he dreams.

    Read More
  145. bomag says:
    @Truth
    Obama has, now, been out of office since the 1st month of the year.

    There is a lot of inertia in politics.

    Read More
  146. @Anonymous
    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World's nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any "elite"; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America's GDP is services, so that doesen't matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC's elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the "de facto" capital.

    That Manhattan's elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don't know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan's elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.

    NYC is the capitol of the world. And all its denizens will tell you so.

    Read More
  147. bomag says:
    @Brabantian
    There is half the story missing from the general approach of the Unz Review to all these matters

    Whatever the differences of blacks versus whites etc ... the fact is nonetheless, that what is going on now, is half the result of the cabal oligarchy exploiting those differences, in order specifically to create social destruction

    Recognise that a large part of the 'problem' in America's cities, is
    (a) A drug trade fostered by the US Deep State & government itself
    (b) A decades-long selling of perverted 'role models' for black people sold by Hollywood & media, from the 'Blaxploitation films' to the 'Gangsta' fetish, trading on the human inclination to imitate what is glamourised
    (c) A progressively escalating police & judicial mauling of average black people, leading to many black youth feeling that they have a high likelihood of getting arrested & going to jail even if innocent, so might as well have a little enjoyment before then 'You're gonna do the time, anyway, so why not commit the crime?'

    However true it is that there are large number of black criminals ... it is also true that many blacks are convicted by kangaroo court false evidence & procedures in a wholly bogus USA prosecutorial system, where the 'public defenders' are under threat to railroad their clients in extortions, false evidence is common, other criminals are given 'deals' to give false witness, juries are selected for stupidity, etc ... USA police & prosecutors even sometimes say, 'If he didn't do this crime, he probably did something, so it's good he's going to jail'

    It is very pleasing to the oligarchy, that the legions of white people financially mauled in kangaroo divorce & alimony court proceedings & general lawsuit extortions ... do not think to make common cause with the blacks being railroaded into jail

    Remember that the oligarchy itself has a vested interest in increased crime & social conflict & hate amongst lower classes ... lower & middle classes fearing & hating each other, is the ultimate distraction from the predations of the oligarchy

    The oligarchy also wants to both create social hate ... and create stressful cognitive dissonance by making it illegal or career-dangerous to write or speak about what is happening ... the oligarchs want whites to hate & fear blacks ... not have them join to re-sort the oligarchy ... Unz Review in part unintentionally helps the oligarchy, by focusing on the direct perpetrators of crime, not the oligarchs and media-purveyors who fostered & motivated the underclass to imitate the criminal role-models ... for historical reasons blacks have been the most vulnerable to such an oligarch agenda ... and the oligarch cabal has made full, evil, satanic use of that vulnerability

    …lower & middle classes fearing & hating each other, is the ultimate distraction from the predations of the oligarchy

    I’m sure the oligarchs would be plenty happy to rule over a peaceful and contented populace.

    It is the People, and very much Black people (civil rights lawsuit, anyone?), who are calling and clamoring for more police and courts.

    Read More
  148. jack ryan says: • Website
    @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me
     
    How come your moniker is not "Jack Ryan New York City" instead of "Jack Ryan Chicago"?

    Yours is a good question. The answer is that I was born and raised SS Chicago (Where Obama moved to) and have lived 2/3 of my life here. I was only in New York City for 5 years, though it felt like 25 years. Mine stay in New York City was sort of like a Viet Nam double tour of duty – and yes it was a combat zone.

    So, I see myself as closely linked to President Trump, R Guliani, NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly as we are all combat veterans of the worst crime, racial, immigration, Islamic terrorism of the worst NYC years 1985-94.

    A key difference is that New York City produced tough guy strong men like the ones I mentioned that took back the streets of New York City and restored civilization and regular voters in Red States instinctively felt that with Donald Trump. Chicago has not produced such tough guys especially in politics – we’ve never elected a Republican mayor.

    I hope that answers your question.

    J Ryan
    AllRightChicago
    jackryanod@protonmail.com

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bragadocious
    Tough guys didn't take back the streets of New York. You want to know why things got safer?

    Puerto Ricans moved out. They went to Pennsylvania, CT and Western Mass. Where crime incidentally skyrocketed.

    And that's all you need to know about the Bratton/Giuliani "miracle."
  149. AM says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    OT:

    Steve,

    If I didn't know better, I'd say that this young lady was a fan of yours. Sadly, she's being earnest. Regardless, this WaPo article is pure Steve-bait. It has blacks and real estate, though, unfortunately, I don't think that it has no money down loans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/home-buying-while-black/2017/09/07/133e286a-8995-11e7-a50f-e0d4e6ec070a_story.html?utm_term=.0698d857315e#comments

    Even the Post commenters - who are hilariously PC true believers - are taking her to task. But, of course, they are upset that she sounds kind of racist, which is the root of all the world's evils. Regardless, the contradictions and obviousness in her thinking is fun to see.

    But, of course, they are upset that she sounds kind of racist, which is the root of all the world’s evils.

    This has been a handy change since 1960 or so, because it means everyone can make as much money as they want, while boinking like crazy, and it’s all virtuous. In fact, you can judge other people by the numbers of people that want to sleep with them and the amount of money in their bank account. And if they end up being losers who work blue collars jobs, they’re completely disposable. We’re meritocracy!

    In the dark ages, before racism was discovered as the real evil (TM), people had these crazy notions that the love of money was the root of all evil, that some loyalty was due to your fellow countrymen even if in your opinion they were trashy, and maybe sleeping around wasn’t such a hot idea. But that was dark ages, unlike now.

    Read More
  150. KM32 says:
    @Anonymous
    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World's nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any "elite"; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America's GDP is services, so that doesen't matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC's elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the "de facto" capital.

    That Manhattan's elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don't know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan's elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.

    Money is only one element of power. Los Angeles has huge stores of cultural power, Washington has the ability to nuke the world into a radioactive slag heap, and hundreds of millions of people are using Google or FB at this exact moment.

    Nobody is saying that NYC isn’t powerful, just that American power is decentralized to other regions that are, by themselves, some of the most influential and important places on Earth.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Wrong. American power is not decentralized at all. It is NYC's elite that sets national policy. Where the orders to fire nukes comes from is irrelevant. Likewise, it's all about economics. NYC is economically more relevant than Chicago, L.A, Houston and Atlanta combined. Los Angeles has almost no influence on national policy.

    I don't understand why I'm even arguing this, since Manhattan being the economic, political and cultural ceeter of the U.S is a well-known and accepted fact.
  151. @Hieronymus of Canada
    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the 'official language of the workplace', as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.

    Quebec's politicians, however, are as buyable as any ones out there (maybe even more so). The province has attracted video game companies to Montreal by, among other things, paying a third of the salaries by tax credits. It wouldn't surprise me if similar arrangements could be made with Amazon.

    And, it’s Atlanta.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2017/09/11/amazon-picks-atlanta-for-new-logistics-hub-locates.html

    I think this is being made a bigger deal than it is. The office will apparently employ only 150 people.

    Any Seattle-ites making the move will be leaving a city that is basically Reagan’s America (70% white, 14% Asian–holy crap). Here’s Wiki’s Atlanta demographics (the city itself, not the metro area):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta#Demographics

    And this:

    “From 2000 to 2010, the city’s black population decreased by 31,678 people, shrinking from 61.4% of the city’s population in 2000 to 54.0% in 2010.” Three percent more have left since then. My impression is they move south to Clayton and Henry counties and east to Rockdale county.

    BTW, interesting to read from your comment that Montreal crafts a nice little Sun Belt-style tax policy to get tech companies to move there.

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    • Replies: @Hieronymus of Canada
    I think those are two different things. Apparently, cities have until the Sept. 19 to submit proposals and they will choose next year. It suppose to be as big as their original HQ. Although the fact that the company is already building stuff their does bode well its chances of 'winning'.

    If I'm not mistaken, Atlanta was one of the cities with 'demographic inversion', where the rich move back into the city and poor go to the suburbs that has operated until recently.
  152. @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Trump has so much freedom to move populist left on economic issues, but he fired Bannon who was working on China trade sanctions and proposed shifting taxes off the middle class to the rich... Boosting that 35% would be a very real improvement to their finances. And unlike tax cuts for millionaires
     
    Somehow taking residence in Washington D.C. reduces the IQ of all inhabitants. I expected Trump to disappoint. I did not expect Trump to become stupid. But, to quote the great Forrest Gump: "Stupid is as stupid does."

    BTW, even had I known, I still would have voted for him. And, unless he caves on immigration, I'll vote for him again.

    He’s akready caved on immigration: the Seabees are not building a wall in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California; he “love[s] the dreamers illegal aliens”; and he’s exercised none of his constitutonal authority to stop the invasions by so-called “refugees” or to stop the H1-B and related scams.

    Like Zuckerburg, he will have his immigration reform be Comprehensive…Big League.

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    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Another day, another blackpill eeyores braying.

    1) Its not simply a matter of him telling the Seabees to build a wall, but I understand you're clueless on how appropriations work and who is ultimately reaponsible. Parroting Ann Coulter's pronouncements from the fever swamp she has apparently taken up residence in doesnt mean they're correct.

    2) You are so simple minded you don't get rhetoric.

    3) Explain to me what an OTM is and how the repatriation process works, and what the specific kinks in the return pipeline are without using google. I'll wait. (Protip: Its not Trump's fault)

    I'm starting to think that some of you are so autistic that you actually believe the President is a God Emperor and not one man trying to unfuck 20+ years of malfeance while dealing with saboteurs inside and out.

  153. @Lot
    Dems won big in the 2006 midterm. Trump hate to me seems bigger than Bush hate in 2006.

    I see some upside to us losing the House narrowly in 2018. It would hopefully mean Ryan would be out as party leader. He is one of the 15 or so GOP house members who are very hardcore pro amnesty. Most possible replacements would be better.

    It could also encourage Trump to make deals with the house dems on middle class tax cuts, or at worst block another big tax cut for the 1%.

    A big 2018 win for the Dems could also lead them to be arrogant and complacent about 2020 the way they were in 2016.

    The hate against Trump among Dems is higher, however that doesn’t swing many elections. By 2006 however, both swing voters and a fair number of Republicans voted for the Democrats ( Or stayed home), the support for Bush II had pretty much evaporated. I dont sense GOP voters defecting, and the swing voters seem indifferent, this is also is not like 1982 with an economy sinking into a deep recession.

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  154. The truth is New York City is very poor not rich, sorry. Its median income is even behind Anaheim’s which has a lot of illegal immigrants and service jobs. In fact New York City does worst on stats against San Diego, San Jose and Seattle, all three big cities with a small poverty group for big cities. Also, New York City crime is a lot worst than Anaheim’s since it has a lot more assault while Anaheim’s is car thief. Its better to have Disneyland than Wall Street.

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  155. @BostonTea
    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    And the finger is put.

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  156. @Stephen Paul Foster
    "After all, too many important people live in NYC to let leftists have their way with the place. New York let liberals take over criminal justice a half century ago, and nobody wants to make that mistake again."

    Great point. Ancient, but relevant history in this regard: A few years after blacks burned down Detroit (1967 riots) they made Coleman Young mayor for 20 years, not a "mistake" rather a national catastrophe -- a once great city now a third world hell hole. So it is now too with Baltimore, St. Louis, etc. etc. But like Steve said, too many white people in NYC (and Chicago for that matter) for the third world descent.

    See: http://fosterspeak.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-detroit-riots-of-1967-and-its.html

    Maybe, New York City has higher crime than Anaheim. It has a lot more assaults. I bet in the next decade, the big cities with Latinos will outpaced those with blacks. New York City is also undesirable compared to San Diego, one of the most white big cities and SD has less crime, and higher income. NYC only has Wall Street and there is a movement back to the burbs which is kind of hitting NYC with young people.

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  157. @Anonymous
    Listen here, guy. NYC has a GDP larger than over 90% of the World's nations, and larger than most other large American cities combined. Hollywood does not have any "elite"; it has celebrities. There is a difference between elites and celebrities. Elites hold economic and political power, and cultural influence. Celebrities are just entertainers.

    As for Silicon Valley, almost as much money passes through the NYSE in one day than the entire GDP of Silicon Valley. Yes, Silicon Valley is one of the last American industries, but the bulk of America's GDP is services, so that doesen't matter much. Also, Sillicon Valley is peanuts compared to NYC which is the financial capital of the World. Not to mention the headquarters of over a quarter of the most relevant corporate and financial institutions in the Western World.

    As for Washiongton D.C, not only is NYC 10 X more important economically, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC and most of the national policies are created by NYC's elite and not in D.C. They transfered the capital from NYC to D.C symbolically only. NYC continues to be the "de facto" capital.

    That Manhattan's elite is the national elite of America is not even debateable. I don't know why I am even discussing this with you. Not only are they wealthier and far more powerful than the elite of any other American city, but they also are the cultural opinion-formers of the nation and they set most of the countries policies. Where the U.S goes as a whole is decided by Manhattan's elite. They have the most money, they are the most culturally sophisticated and they set national policies.

    I don’t quite understand: How do you really feel about New York?

    (You know, if that thing lasts more than four hours, you really ought to see a physician.)

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  158. @BostonTea
    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    And median home price $1 million. And surrounded by super-duper wealthy Palo Alto, San Francisco Bay, and a ring of state parks. So no cheap burbs for developers to throw up wood frame apartments and cram the riff-raff into. Ron’s thesis on Hispanic immigration is built on some heavily endogenous premises.

    I don’t see how this lasts. California’s government is broke and needs tax dollars badly, and at some point the not-so-secret secret pact between the environmental lobby and wealthy white property owners will start attracting attention. There are already rumblings.

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  159. BB753 says:
    @Hieronymus of Canada

    Sailer has a point. NYC is not an ordinary American city. It is, by far, the most important American city. When you think about it, NYC is the “de facto” capital city of the U.S. Washington D.C is the capital in title only. NYC is economically and culturally more important than Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami and Boston *combined* .Not only that, but there are actually more federal employees in NYC than in D.C!
     
    I should note that Joel Garrieau wrote of Manhattan as 'Nation'-less anomaly in his 1980 Nine Nations of North America

    Still, I'm not sure about that. LA has Hollywood; Silicon Valley is basically the USA's last great industrial cluster, along Huston's oil and gas industries. And of course Washington, D.C. and its imperial government. Those are powerful industries with powerful elites. I don't doubt that New York is a powerful, or even the *most* powerful metropolitan center in the US, but I'm not sure it's at the level of London, Paris, Tokyo, etc. as compared to the rest of the country.

    Nico:

    The key difference is that Rome acknowledged and took great pride in its status as the capital, openly flaunted its superiority in comparison to the “other” and spared no misery in its efforts to Romanize said other.
     
    Pendatic historical note: this was true during the Republic and the early Empire, by the mid to late Empire the city of Rome began to decline in importance, along with its ancient Senatorial classes. It was loosing power to the Equestrians who lived in the Romanizing provinces - even some of the Good Emperors came not from Rome, but from Spain.

    Rome was too far away from the frontiers garrison by the army, which during the Crisis of the Third Century made and broke emperors at will. The Empire was split into two, with the eastern half getting a capital in the New Rome of Constantinople, while the Western Empire had its capital moved to Ravenna until Odoacer shut that venerable institution down.

    OT:

    What does everybody thinking of Jeff Bezos and Amazon's next large acquisition: a new summer capital* second headquarters, somewhere in North America? Various candidates have been proposed including Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Denver or Toronto.

    Personally, I think the Internet peanut gallery is unfairly dismissing the chances of Southern cities because they are full of Deplorables and their deplorable laws. I doubt cultural politics will be of any importance as compared to the buyablity of the politicians with regards to labour laws and taxes. And Southern politicians are VERY buyable.

    I don't see them going to a flyover city, as it's too far away from anywhere else. Nor will it go to Detroit, Baltimore or Mexico(!), as some over commenters wish, because while Amazon is big, it's not big enough (yet) to buy a Praetorian Guard to clear out the barbarian armies in control of those places.

    If they choose a Canadian city, I think many are overrating Toronto and underrating Montreal (full disclosure: I was born and raised in the latter). Land prices, while not at Vancouver levels, is still extremely high. Also often unmentioned is electricity prices. Hydro-Quebec operates several large dams in the North, which provinces cheap electricity for the province and its neighbours. A big reason that Boeing is in Seattle is access to cheap hydroelectricity; wind tunnels aren't cheap. Likewise, big data centers are big electricity users. A computer science professor told us a story of how friend who ran a data center asked someone at the power company if they could provide enough power. They replied that they could - if they turn of the mid-sized city next to the data center.

    And of course, they could always establish in the old imperial cities of Washington, D.C. and New York City. Like people, the best way of becoming powerful is having power.

    * This reminds me of Forbidden Palace and Versailles wonders in Civilization 4, which provide the empire who built it a second or third capital, which reduced maintenance costs in nearby cities like the Palace - even though the namesake wonders a built in or near their respective capitals!

    My bet is on Amazon picking up Chicago as it’s second headquarters. It’s got good communications, it’s Midwestern but not provincial, a big city with the promise of gentrification, and cheap dem politicians for sale. Admittedly, crime is sky-high now but nothing that can’t be fixed by removing the more troublesome Blacks to places like Ferguson.

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  160. Truth says:
    @Anon
    "If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary."

    Zuckerberg has precisely zero chance of winning the primary. I think you guys are seeing what you want to: "he's white and not a leftist nut, so yay Zuckerberg."

    1. He will lose the South because he's not black (see Bernie Sanders).

    2. He will lose the Rust Belt because he's a tech guy and free trader.

    3. He will turn off at least a portion of the party elders because he's Jewish, and they think that middle America may run from him like they did with Romney and his weirdo religion.

    4. He's not the kind of billionaire people aspire to, unlike Trump - a guy with a flashy wife, a Manhattan penthouse, a plane, celebrity, and beautiful children.

    Zuckerberg is a dork who runs a company a lot of people hate and only use because an alternative has yet to present itself.

    5. He has a Chinese wife and you can bet that will be an issue. The right will do to Zuckerberg and his China connection what the left has tried to do with Russia and Trump. There will be allegations that she is a spy and that this could be a Chinese coup against our government. The left will have little ammunition to combat that as they have hypocritically done the same to Trump.

    If they want Zuckerberg as president they will manipulate media spin, his opponents and the results so that he is president. Don’t be a simp, Bro. Do you think the clown we have as president now is the most qualified person in America to be president.

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  161. Truth says:
    @Anonymous
    Nearly all academians would consider that 0.8 correlation to be a strong positive correlation if you left off what was being correlated.

    Interesting that there is a negative correlation for whites, but it makes sense, given the idea of a whitetopia.

    Cue Occam's Butterknife by Tiny Duck, Nick Diaz, Truth and Corvinus in 5,4,3,2,1...

    …I missed my cue, can we go to break and start again?

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  162. Truth says:
    @Steve Sailer
    It's almost like New Yorkers want the most criminally inclined blacks to move out of New York City, so they go about trying to make rest of the country more poorly policed.

    And they would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn’t for these meddling kids…

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  163. Truth says:
    @Ron Unz
    On a very different note, so far this year homicides in San Jose (pop=1M) are down something like 40% from last year, giving the city a reasonable shot at reclaiming its title of being the safest major city in America. Crime had actually been up quite a bit the last few years, partly because stupid budgetary policies had reduced the number of police officers by over 35%.

    Being in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose policing is naturally quite "liberal," with nothing remotely like NYC's harsh "stop-and-frisk" policy. The police force is also *ridiculously* small compared to NYC, with the latter having 8x the population but a remarkable 40x(!!) the number of officers. Or using a different comparison, San Jose has 2.5x Baltimore's population, but roughly 1/4 of its police force.

    For the benefit of those unaware of such things, I'd also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant (and very often illegal) background.

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a "soft" approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates...

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a “soft” approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates…

    …The multimillionaire computer programmer/ politicians have the latest in high-tech home security.

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  164. Truth says:
    @Hieronymus of Canada
    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the 'official language of the workplace', as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.

    Quebec's politicians, however, are as buyable as any ones out there (maybe even more so). The province has attracted video game companies to Montreal by, among other things, paying a third of the salaries by tax credits. It wouldn't surprise me if similar arrangements could be made with Amazon.

    I forgot to add some disavantages of Montreal as well: the one that sticks out is La charte de la langue française, which declares French as the ‘official language of the workplace’, as well as a powerful labour movement that could cause lots of trouble.

    The fries with gravy and the strip clubs kinda make up for it though. And it’s one of the few places hetrosexual dudes still dress well.

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  165. Truth says:
    @BostonTea
    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    …Hey Ron, he just answered your question for you.

    And I’m glad too, it’s not like you were being rhetorical or anything. Sometimes you 200IQ geniuses have a hard time figuring things out.

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  166. @The Anti-Gnostic
    And, it's Atlanta.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2017/09/11/amazon-picks-atlanta-for-new-logistics-hub-locates.html

    I think this is being made a bigger deal than it is. The office will apparently employ only 150 people.

    Any Seattle-ites making the move will be leaving a city that is basically Reagan's America (70% white, 14% Asian--holy crap). Here's Wiki's Atlanta demographics (the city itself, not the metro area):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta#Demographics

    And this:

    "From 2000 to 2010, the city's black population decreased by 31,678 people, shrinking from 61.4% of the city's population in 2000 to 54.0% in 2010." Three percent more have left since then. My impression is they move south to Clayton and Henry counties and east to Rockdale county.

    BTW, interesting to read from your comment that Montreal crafts a nice little Sun Belt-style tax policy to get tech companies to move there.

    I think those are two different things. Apparently, cities have until the Sept. 19 to submit proposals and they will choose next year. It suppose to be as big as their original HQ. Although the fact that the company is already building stuff their does bode well its chances of ‘winning’.

    If I’m not mistaken, Atlanta was one of the cities with ‘demographic inversion’, where the rich move back into the city and poor go to the suburbs that has operated until recently.

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  167. Art Deco says:
    @Alec Leamas

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.
     
    I have my doubts - the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with "No red America, No blue America" era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn't punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama,

    Among the superdelegates, perhaps. Clinton actually one a slight plurality in popular ballots.

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    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (hard at work)

    Among the superdelegates, perhaps. Clinton actually one a slight plurality in popular ballots
     
    .

    Yes, but it's a near impossibility to win the nomination without securing a plurality of Super-Delegates (which is how the Dems want it to work).

    The democratic process in the Democratic Party is all but a charade to give a gloss of legitimacy to the whole affair - it simply relies on hoping the media stays in the pocket and doesn't make a big deal of Sanders winning 55+% of a State's primary vote but only taking a fraction of its delegates. The GOP would never get away with such a system, because it would present too much of an opportunity for the media to weaken the primary winner by pointing out how he lost popular primary votes and was simply the choice of the Party bosses.

    You're also not accounting for how when the Kennedys went all in for Osama Obama it was a tip to the rest of the Super-Delegates that a deal had been struck and Super-Delegate noses counted, and those who hadn't pledged to Obama were now in fear of being outsiders in Obama's Party.
  168. Art Deco says:
    @Alec Leamas

    The Democratic establishment was truly divided in 2007-08 over whether the opportunity to float the first female or the first male president was the better idea.
     
    I have my doubts - the Democratic apparatus was controlled by the Clintons to produce a clear field for Hillary, but some in the party previously loyal to the Clintons defected to draft Obama and shift the ground under the Clinton dominance of the party. I think it was more a question of honoring their pledges to the Clintons versus a love affair with "No red America, No blue America" era Obama.

    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama, anointing him the successor of JFK. Then the rest of the Democrat bigwigs were free to dishonor debts to the Clintons, since they surely couldn't punish all of the defectors.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    Reagan aside, the Democrats really do worship their plaster saints with more fervor than the GOP does.

    Reagan and Lincoln are about the only plaster saints the GOP ever had. Gen. Grant, TR, Calvin Coolidge, and Gen. Eisenhower had a great deal of prestige, but only for circumscribed periods of time.

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  169. bjdubbs says:
    @Ron Unz
    On a very different note, so far this year homicides in San Jose (pop=1M) are down something like 40% from last year, giving the city a reasonable shot at reclaiming its title of being the safest major city in America. Crime had actually been up quite a bit the last few years, partly because stupid budgetary policies had reduced the number of police officers by over 35%.

    Being in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose policing is naturally quite "liberal," with nothing remotely like NYC's harsh "stop-and-frisk" policy. The police force is also *ridiculously* small compared to NYC, with the latter having 8x the population but a remarkable 40x(!!) the number of officers. Or using a different comparison, San Jose has 2.5x Baltimore's population, but roughly 1/4 of its police force.

    For the benefit of those unaware of such things, I'd also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant (and very often illegal) background.

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a "soft" approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates...

    High rents select for low-crime Hispanics. Seriously Ron, you can do better than that.

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  170. AB- says:
    @BostonTea
    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    The racial makeup of San Jose is, roughly speaking, 30% white, 30% Asian and 30% Hispanic. Blacks make up only 3% of the city population.

    Ding, ding, ding; we have a winner! LOL.

    Keep the ‘blacks behaving badly’ population as small as possible and you don’t have much crime.

    I thought Amazon was going to Texass, probably Austin. Business friendly state, lots of libs to hire in Austin, centrally located.

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  171. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    “If they want Zuckerberg as president they will manipulate media spin”,

    Lay off the conspiracy theory juice. They tried that with Trump, and it didn’t work. Zuck would be a pretty good foil for Trump to run against.

    “Don’t be a simp, Bro.”

    Those who can’t argue, attack…bro. I noticed that you weren’t able to rebut a single listed point.

    “Do you think the clown we have as president now is the most qualified person in America to be president.”

    What qualifications are needed to be president when the only things that matter are racial, ethnic, and class affiliation?

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  172. fitzGetty says:
    @Thorsted
    Jared Taylor from "American Renaissance" has made the claim that New York could reduce its police force with 80% without black due to their significant overrepresentation in many crimes in New York.

    … but then, there is the special Wall St ”’over-representation issue”’ to be managed too …

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  173. fitzGetty says:
    @Thorsted
    Jared Taylor from "American Renaissance" has made the claim that New York could reduce its police force with 80% without black due to their significant overrepresentation in many crimes in New York.

    … but then, there is the special Wall St ”’over-representation issue”’ to be managed too …

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  174. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    “These gov’t gimme ideas don’t really work.”

    They won Roosevelt four terms.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Suggest that Roosevelt won 3 terms because real per capita GDP declined by a mean 8% per year over the period running from 1929 to 1933 but increased by a mean 7.6% per year over the period running from 1933 to 1941. The labor market remained in an injured state in 1941 (and some of Roosevelt's more ill-conceived policies exacerbated matters), but it was still in better condition than it had been in 1933 and the Administration had made an effort to address some of its problems with the WPA and other agencies.

    As for Roosevelt's victory in 1944, the country was in the middle of a shooting war and his opponent was a 42 year old lawyer who had never served in the military and whose executive experience was limited to 22 months as Governor of New York.

  175. @Art Deco
    I think the preference cascade broke when the remainders of the Kennedy dynasty announced support for Obama,

    Among the superdelegates, perhaps. Clinton actually one a slight plurality in popular ballots.

    Among the superdelegates, perhaps. Clinton actually one a slight plurality in popular ballots

    .

    Yes, but it’s a near impossibility to win the nomination without securing a plurality of Super-Delegates (which is how the Dems want it to work).

    The democratic process in the Democratic Party is all but a charade to give a gloss of legitimacy to the whole affair – it simply relies on hoping the media stays in the pocket and doesn’t make a big deal of Sanders winning 55+% of a State’s primary vote but only taking a fraction of its delegates. The GOP would never get away with such a system, because it would present too much of an opportunity for the media to weaken the primary winner by pointing out how he lost popular primary votes and was simply the choice of the Party bosses.

    You’re also not accounting for how when the Kennedys went all in for Osama Obama it was a tip to the rest of the Super-Delegates that a deal had been struck and Super-Delegate noses counted, and those who hadn’t pledged to Obama were now in fear of being outsiders in Obama’s Party.

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  176. @Autochthon
    He's akready caved on immigration: the Seabees are not building a wall in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California; he "love[s] the dreamers illegal aliens"; and he's exercised none of his constitutonal authority to stop the invasions by so-called "refugees" or to stop the H1-B and related scams.

    Like Zuckerburg, he will have his immigration reform be Comprehensive...Big League.

    Another day, another blackpill eeyores braying.

    1) Its not simply a matter of him telling the Seabees to build a wall, but I understand you’re clueless on how appropriations work and who is ultimately reaponsible. Parroting Ann Coulter’s pronouncements from the fever swamp she has apparently taken up residence in doesnt mean they’re correct.

    2) You are so simple minded you don’t get rhetoric.

    3) Explain to me what an OTM is and how the repatriation process works, and what the specific kinks in the return pipeline are without using google. I’ll wait. (Protip: Its not Trump’s fault)

    I’m starting to think that some of you are so autistic that you actually believe the President is a God Emperor and not one man trying to unfuck 20+ years of malfeance while dealing with saboteurs inside and out.

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  177. @jack ryan
    Yours is a good question. The answer is that I was born and raised SS Chicago (Where Obama moved to) and have lived 2/3 of my life here. I was only in New York City for 5 years, though it felt like 25 years. Mine stay in New York City was sort of like a Viet Nam double tour of duty - and yes it was a combat zone.

    So, I see myself as closely linked to President Trump, R Guliani, NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly as we are all combat veterans of the worst crime, racial, immigration, Islamic terrorism of the worst NYC years 1985-94.

    A key difference is that New York City produced tough guy strong men like the ones I mentioned that took back the streets of New York City and restored civilization and regular voters in Red States instinctively felt that with Donald Trump. Chicago has not produced such tough guys especially in politics - we've never elected a Republican mayor.

    I hope that answers your question.

    J Ryan
    AllRightChicago
    jackryanod@protonmail.com

    Tough guys didn’t take back the streets of New York. You want to know why things got safer?

    Puerto Ricans moved out. They went to Pennsylvania, CT and Western Mass. Where crime incidentally skyrocketed.

    And that’s all you need to know about the Bratton/Giuliani “miracle.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Yeah, ol' Ron has to check out the murder rates in formerly sleepy Western Mass locales like Springfield and Holyoke. The local wags are calling Route 91 the San Juan Highway.
    , @Art Deco
    You fancy Puerto Ricans were responsible for 82% of the murders in New York City in 1990?

    From the year 2000 to 2015, the Puerto Rican population in NYC plummeted from 780,000 to... 720,000.

    In 1990, Philadelphia had a homicide rate of 32 per 100,000. In the intervening years, all those Puerto Rican troublemakers have caused that rate to skyrocket to ... 18 per 100,000. Homicide rates in Springfield, Mass have been on a mild upward trajectory over the last 15 years. Those in Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport in Connecticut have, if anything, been on a mild downward trajectory.
  178. Twinkie says:
    @Peter Johnson
    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates. So if the NYPD allocates police resources to balance crime-per-officer in each local district, then the African American districts must be much more heavily policed than in Baltimore. Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.

    That is an interesting statistical comparison; it puts a new twist on the comparison of crime rates.

    Thanks. Of course it is a very CRUDE measure, but it is a very quick estimate of the two most important variables – the number of blacks and police presence.

    Meanwhile the MSM in New York City is calling for the de-policing of Baltimore while their own city (correctly adjusted for its different ethnic composition) is much more heavily policed.

    Typical (elite) left-wing attitude: security for me, but not for thee.

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  179. Twinkie says:
    @Ron Unz
    On a very different note, so far this year homicides in San Jose (pop=1M) are down something like 40% from last year, giving the city a reasonable shot at reclaiming its title of being the safest major city in America. Crime had actually been up quite a bit the last few years, partly because stupid budgetary policies had reduced the number of police officers by over 35%.

    Being in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose policing is naturally quite "liberal," with nothing remotely like NYC's harsh "stop-and-frisk" policy. The police force is also *ridiculously* small compared to NYC, with the latter having 8x the population but a remarkable 40x(!!) the number of officers. Or using a different comparison, San Jose has 2.5x Baltimore's population, but roughly 1/4 of its police force.

    For the benefit of those unaware of such things, I'd also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant (and very often illegal) background.

    I wish I could somehow put my finger on the mysterious factor that causes such a large city with such a "soft" approach to policing to have such remarkably low crime rates...

    I’d also point out that San Jose is only about 25% white European and maybe 35% Hispanic… the mysterious factor…

    Hmmm, I wonder which large (in San Jose) hypo-criminally-oriented ethnic group was left out in your characterization of San Jose…

    And I wonder how many of those mysterious missing folks are in Baltimore… Something like 2% of the population, I reckon.
    Hispanic, with the latter overwhelmingly from an immigrant…
    The problems with Hispanic immigrants are not criminal (except immigration laws) in nature. They are labor-related and those that relate to negative externalities such as school/medical care costs (and in a more broad sense, cultural).

    Everyone who is even borderline literate knows that foreign-born Mexicans, for example, have somewhat lower incarceration rates than native-born whites do (immigrants are fearful and toe the line, by and large). Of course, the problems with that is that the AMERICAN-BORN Mexicans are a different story, as the Migration Policy Institute noted in its study of “the paradox of assimilation” research. They display 7 times the incarceration rate of their foreign-born counterparts and far exceed native-born whites… which means the children of these somewhat hypo-criminal folks will be hyper-criminal (unlike that mysterious missing ethnic group of San Jose, who, despite the curse of the assimilation, still has lower rates of incarceration than do native whites).

    See: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/debunking-myth-immigrant-criminality-imprisonment-among-first-and-second-generation-young/

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  180. Redman says:
    @Art Deco
    My surmise is that even murder rates can be manipulated by pushing the problem populations right over a County or State border via gentrification. What does the crime rate in Patterson or Newark look like?

    Patterson and Newark between them have a population 1/20 th that of the City of New York, so you're not going to reduce your homicide rate much by deporting troublesome characters there. There isn't much of a secular trend in homicide rates in either locale over the last 15 years. (The worst year in Paterson had 8 homicides more than the median year; the worst in Newark 21 murders more). There hasn't been much of a noticeable trend in Jersey City, the Oranges, Irvington, or Elizabeth (bar a recent spike in East Orange, co-incident with the city replacing their quite effective mayor). In Mount Vernon and Yonkers, homicide has (if anything) been on a declining trajectory.

    As a lifelong New Yawker, I agree.

    It’s the economy stupid. The sheer wealth in NYC can only be matched to any degree in the burbs of D.C. Since the internet boom of 1995, the city has had an abundance of at least minimum wage service jobs for diverse yutes with a pulse. Even after the 2008 crash, I didn’t notice much of a dip in conspicuous consumption, building and general growth and expansion of the city at large.

    The markets dominate the US economy more than ever, and NY is where those markets are based. The wealthy bankers need services, so jobs r main plentiful. It’s pretty obvious to those who notice.

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  181. Redman says:
    @Anon
    "If think if he runs he has at least a 50% shot at winning the primary."

    Zuckerberg has precisely zero chance of winning the primary. I think you guys are seeing what you want to: "he's white and not a leftist nut, so yay Zuckerberg."

    1. He will lose the South because he's not black (see Bernie Sanders).

    2. He will lose the Rust Belt because he's a tech guy and free trader.

    3. He will turn off at least a portion of the party elders because he's Jewish, and they think that middle America may run from him like they did with Romney and his weirdo religion.

    4. He's not the kind of billionaire people aspire to, unlike Trump - a guy with a flashy wife, a Manhattan penthouse, a plane, celebrity, and beautiful children.

    Zuckerberg is a dork who runs a company a lot of people hate and only use because an alternative has yet to present itself.

    5. He has a Chinese wife and you can bet that will be an issue. The right will do to Zuckerberg and his China connection what the left has tried to do with Russia and Trump. There will be allegations that she is a spy and that this could be a Chinese coup against our government. The left will have little ammunition to combat that as they have hypocritically done the same to Trump.

    Totally agree. Is he even old enough to run in 2020?

    If so, he’s a complete dork with zero sex appeal. So no female votes. All the other points of anon are dead on.

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  182. @Ed
    Even if the white mean score of Baltimore city residents is true. I suspect not since there's been an influx of white professionals. They're no where near as violent as blacks in the city or even the suburbs.

    It is true Baltimore has a dysfunctional poor white population. Many are descendants of migrants from West Virginia ironically. If you ever drive along RT 1 in Baltimore on a summer day you'll see them hanging out on their stoops, several with mixed babies running around.

    As I recall, there was an interesting TV series some years back set in Baltimore, Homicide: Life on the Street. They actually had a name for these originally-rural folks like the West Virginia who migrated to Baltimore. They called them City Goats, and there was one whole episode focusing on the Baltimore detectives attempts to get some of these folks to return to Baltimore to face trial for murder. With mixed results, I dimly recollect.

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  183. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @KM32
    Money is only one element of power. Los Angeles has huge stores of cultural power, Washington has the ability to nuke the world into a radioactive slag heap, and hundreds of millions of people are using Google or FB at this exact moment.

    Nobody is saying that NYC isn't powerful, just that American power is decentralized to other regions that are, by themselves, some of the most influential and important places on Earth.

    Wrong. American power is not decentralized at all. It is NYC’s elite that sets national policy. Where the orders to fire nukes comes from is irrelevant. Likewise, it’s all about economics. NYC is economically more relevant than Chicago, L.A, Houston and Atlanta combined. Los Angeles has almost no influence on national policy.

    I don’t understand why I’m even arguing this, since Manhattan being the economic, political and cultural ceeter of the U.S is a well-known and accepted fact.

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  184. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    "These gov’t gimme ideas don’t really work."

    They won Roosevelt four terms.

    Suggest that Roosevelt won 3 terms because real per capita GDP declined by a mean 8% per year over the period running from 1929 to 1933 but increased by a mean 7.6% per year over the period running from 1933 to 1941. The labor market remained in an injured state in 1941 (and some of Roosevelt’s more ill-conceived policies exacerbated matters), but it was still in better condition than it had been in 1933 and the Administration had made an effort to address some of its problems with the WPA and other agencies.

    As for Roosevelt’s victory in 1944, the country was in the middle of a shooting war and his opponent was a 42 year old lawyer who had never served in the military and whose executive experience was limited to 22 months as Governor of New York.

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  185. Brutusale says:
    @Jack Ryan Chicago
    Yep

    I was in New York City during almost worst years 1985-90

    Civilization collapsed under Mayor Dinkins.

    Mayor Bloomberg was typical Lib immigration idiot but at least he backed the NYPD.

    Tough White New Yorkers are my favorite type of Americans:

    Guliani
    NYPD chiefs Bratton and Kelly
    Donald Trump
    Me

    Cuckservatives Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan, Orin Hatch, lisping Lindsey Graham, George Will wouldn't t last a week in early 90s New York City.

    Read Bonfire of the Vanities, Death Wish and Camp of the Saints.

    Libertarians and Constitutionalist are also worthless in such NYC time and places .

    Bill Bratton is as Boston as they get.

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  186. Brutusale says:
    @Bragadocious
    Tough guys didn't take back the streets of New York. You want to know why things got safer?

    Puerto Ricans moved out. They went to Pennsylvania, CT and Western Mass. Where crime incidentally skyrocketed.

    And that's all you need to know about the Bratton/Giuliani "miracle."

    Yeah, ol’ Ron has to check out the murder rates in formerly sleepy Western Mass locales like Springfield and Holyoke. The local wags are calling Route 91 the San Juan Highway.

    Read More
  187. Art Deco says:
    @Bragadocious
    Tough guys didn't take back the streets of New York. You want to know why things got safer?

    Puerto Ricans moved out. They went to Pennsylvania, CT and Western Mass. Where crime incidentally skyrocketed.

    And that's all you need to know about the Bratton/Giuliani "miracle."

    You fancy Puerto Ricans were responsible for 82% of the murders in New York City in 1990?

    From the year 2000 to 2015, the Puerto Rican population in NYC plummeted from 780,000 to… 720,000.

    In 1990, Philadelphia had a homicide rate of 32 per 100,000. In the intervening years, all those Puerto Rican troublemakers have caused that rate to skyrocket to … 18 per 100,000. Homicide rates in Springfield, Mass have been on a mild upward trajectory over the last 15 years. Those in Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport in Connecticut have, if anything, been on a mild downward trajectory.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bragadocious
    Stop being dense. Here are the facts:

    Between 1950 and 1970, around 700,000 Puerto Ricans came to the mainland. Most settled in NYC. By 1980, there were around 1.1 million Puerto Ricans in the 5 boros. 1980-85 can be fairly described as "rock bottom" in NYC, although 1990 was bad too because of the record # of murders. But that year was an outlier because of the Happy Land massacre, perpetrated by a Cuban immigrant. After 1990, Puerto Ricans started to leave.

    And yeah, it's been an unmitigated blessing. I almost want to apologize to the people of Holyoke and Hazleton, but then again, Puerto Ricans aren't my people. So I won't.
  188. @Art Deco
    You fancy Puerto Ricans were responsible for 82% of the murders in New York City in 1990?

    From the year 2000 to 2015, the Puerto Rican population in NYC plummeted from 780,000 to... 720,000.

    In 1990, Philadelphia had a homicide rate of 32 per 100,000. In the intervening years, all those Puerto Rican troublemakers have caused that rate to skyrocket to ... 18 per 100,000. Homicide rates in Springfield, Mass have been on a mild upward trajectory over the last 15 years. Those in Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport in Connecticut have, if anything, been on a mild downward trajectory.

    Stop being dense. Here are the facts:

    Between 1950 and 1970, around 700,000 Puerto Ricans came to the mainland. Most settled in NYC. By 1980, there were around 1.1 million Puerto Ricans in the 5 boros. 1980-85 can be fairly described as “rock bottom” in NYC, although 1990 was bad too because of the record # of murders. But that year was an outlier because of the Happy Land massacre, perpetrated by a Cuban immigrant. After 1990, Puerto Ricans started to leave.

    And yeah, it’s been an unmitigated blessing. I almost want to apologize to the people of Holyoke and Hazleton, but then again, Puerto Ricans aren’t my people. So I won’t.

    Read More
  189. @Lot
    The IRS would like to send pre-filled tax forms to the many people who year after year have no income other than their fully reported job income, but HR Block lobbies to stop this because it likes ripping off proles with usurious tax refund anticipation loans.

    California has a free Turbotax style website for doing your state income tax. The IRS was specifically prohibited from doing the same by Congress on behalf of the same lobbyists.

    I didn’t know about the HR Block lobby. That’s pretty disgusting.

    Read More
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