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Liberal Researcher Now Admits Ferguson Effect on Murder Is Real
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From The Guardian:

Is the ‘Ferguson effect’ real? Researcher has second thoughts

‘Some version’ of theory linking protests over police killings to increase in crime may be best explanation for increase in murders in 2015, St Louis criminologist says after deeper analysis of crime trends

Lois Beckett
@loisbeckett
Friday 13 May 2016 16.23 EDT

For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. Now, the St Louis criminologist says, a deeper analysis of the increase in homicides in 2015 has convinced him that “some version” of the Ferguson effect may be real.

Looking at data from 56 large cities across the country, Rosenfeld found a 17% increase in homicide in 2015. Much of that increase came from only 10 cities, which saw an average 33% increase in homicide.

“These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he said. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.”

All 10 cities that saw sudden increases in homicide had large African American populations, he said. While it’s not clear what drove the increases, he said, he believes there is some connection between high-profile protests over police killings of unarmed black men, a further breakdown in black citizens’ trust of the police, and an increase in community violence.

“The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”.

Other experts have argued that it’s still hard to know whether 2015’s increase in murders was significant, much less what might have caused the trend. The liberal Brennan Center found that increases in homicide last year were localized in only a few cities, and that “community conditions” were likely to blame, rather than “a national pandemic”.

Even if the increase in homicide is significant, there are many competing theories for what may be responsible. The Brennan Center pointed to economic deterioration of struggling neighborhoods. Columnist Shaun King argued last month that the increase in violence in two cities seemed to be caused by police officers “refusing to fully do their jobs”. Local police officials have blamed court system failures, gang dynamics and the proliferation of illegal guns.

Rosenfeld’s new analysis of homicide trends, which was was funded by the Department of Justice, is currently being reviewed by department officials and has not yet been released to the public. A justice department spokeswoman said the paper is expected to be released in July.

Probably at 4:59 PM on July 3rd, kind of like how LBJ released the Coleman Report in 1966.

The question of whether there is any link between protests over police mistreatment of black Americans and an increase in violence in some black neighborhoods has been a political flashpoint for the past year. Conservative writer Heather Mac Donald warned in May 2015 that protests over police behavior would only backfire on black citizens.

“Unless the demonization of law enforcement ends, the liberating gains in urban safety over the past 20 years will be lost,” she wrote. Her op-ed, titled The New Nationwide Crime Wave, sparked a months-long debate.

The Obama administration repeatedly denied that there is any evidence of a “Ferguson effect”, while FBI director James Comey reiterated his suggestion that violent crime was increasing because of “a chill wind blowing through American law enforcement over the last year.” Protesters said the conservative focus on the Ferguson effect is an attempt to undermine the movement to reform American policing. …

Comey reignited the debate on Wednesday, telling reporters that the continued increase in violence was a serious problem that national media outlets were choosing to ignore. He said that private conversations with police officials across the country convinced him that “marginal pullbacks by lots and lots of police officers” afraid of being the subject of the next viral video of police misconduct might be contributing to the increase.

“The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it.”

The White House clashed with Comey last year over his previous comments on policing and crime increases, and the administration has repeatedly pushed back against the idea of a “Ferguson effect”. Obama himself cautioned against trying to “cherry-pick” crime data last year, and Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that while the idea of the Ferguson effect had been bolstered by anecdotes, “there’s no data to support it”.

Other than that 17% increase in homicides from 2014 to 2015.

Chicago, Obama’s hometown, has seen more than 1,000 shooting incidents so far this year, compared with about 600 incidents during the same period last year. Murders in Chicago are up 56%, with 70 more people murdered so far this year than last year. …

Some protesters and law enforcement leaders criticized Comey for advancing a theory without national data to back it up. …

Serpas cited a series of influential reports from the liberal Brennan Center that found no change in overall crime in 2015 in the nation’s 30 largest cities, and only a slight increase in violent crime.

The Brennan Center analysis did find that the murder rate had increased 13.2% in the nation’s 30 largest cities, but it downplayed this finding. “While this suggests cause for concern in some cities, murder rates vary widely from year to year, and there is little evidence of a national coming wave in violent crime,” the report noted.

Crimes rate have generally been on a downward trend since perhaps the late 1970s, in part because crime doesn’t pay as well anymore. Property crime is way down due to target hardening and other developments in technology: for example, stealing cars was easy in the 1960s, so manufacturers made it harder to steal cars. So thieves switched to stealing car stereos, which were worth less, so those were made harder to steal. Moreover, information technology, such as the GPS location recording systems that everybody carries around with them now, are making a life of crime ever less plausible of a career track.

In other words, crime should be falling a few percent per year.

The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”

Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.

“The conclusion one draws from the Brennan Center’s report is, ‘Not much changed,’ and that is simply not true. In the case of homicide, a lot did change, in a very short period of time,” he said.

While “economic disadvantage is an extraordinarily important predictor of the level of homicide in cities,” he said, “there’s no evidence of a one year substantial economic decline in those cities. There have to be other factors involved.”

The idea of a “Ferguson effect” was coined in 2014 by St Louis police chief Samuel Dotson. The same year that Ferguson saw massive protests over the killing of 18-year-old Michael Brown, St Louis saw a 32.5% increase in homicides. “The criminal element is feeling empowered by the environment,” St Louis’s police chief argued, blaming the increase in crime on what he called “the Ferguson effect”, and arguing that the police department needed to hire 180 more officers.

That claim was picked up in May 2015 by Mac Donald, a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute which had published a researcher’s 1996 warning about the purported rise of “juvenile super-predators”.

Samuel Sinyangwe, a co-founder of Mapping Police Violence and Campaign Zero, called the conservative focus on the Ferguson effect “a reactionary attempt to undermine the movement”.

“It has been the attempt to put across this narrative that any criticism of the police is dangerous to society,” he said.

That kind of political rhetoric has been used against civil rights advocates in the past. Opponents of the 1964 Civil Rights Act argued that “civil rights would engender a crime wave”, Yale political scientist Vesla Weaver wrote in an article on how arguments about crime were used to attack and undermine African Americans’ fight for equal rights.

Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America, which got going right about 1964. But who can remember such details when we need to spend all our time remembering the really important history like Emmett Till?

A closer look at many of the statistics Mac Donald used to bolster her thesis showed they did not provide sufficient evidence of a nationwide crime wave, criminologist Frank Zimring argued last year.

When Rosenfeld analyzed St Louis’s crime data, he found the increase in homicides there could not have been caused by a “Ferguson effect”, because the greatest increase came early in the year, months before Michael Brown’s death or the protests that followed.

Rosenfeld’s research was widely cited in articles debunking the Ferguson effect.

But that paper only looked at the evidence for the effect in one city. With funding from the National Institute of Justice, the justice department’s research arm, Rosenfeld did a new study early this year that looked that more broadly at homicide trends in the nation’s 56 largest cities and found an overall 17% increase in homicide.

As a result of that broader national analysis he said, he has had “second thoughts” about the Ferguson effect. “My views have been altered.”

Looking at the additional homicides in large cities, he found that two-thirds of the increase was concentrated in 10 cities: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Washington, Nashville, Philadelphia, Kansas City and St Louis.

Those 10 cities had somewhat higher levels of poverty than the other cities he examined. But, he said, the “key difference” was that “their African American population was substantially larger than other large cities”: an average of 41% in those 10 cities, compared with 19.9% in the others.

Separate analyses looked at two of these cities in 2015 and early 2016. A FiveThirtyEight assessment of Chicago crime data concluded that the city’s increase in gun violence was statistically significant, that the spike dated back to the release of the video of the police shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald, and that it was closely correlated with a drop in police arrests. Researchers in Baltimore found a similar correlation between a drop in arrests and an increase in violence in the wake of protests over Freddie Gray’s death, and concluded that while the Ferguson effect played no role in Baltimore’s rising violence, a “Freddie Gray effect” may have been a significant factor.

Violence has many complex causes, and decades of exhaustive research has shed only partial light. Even the dramatic drop in violence and crime since the early 1990s – the most basic fact about crime in America – is not fully understood.

No, the most basic fact about crime in America, which has almost been completely forgotten by the press, is that crime went way up in the 1960s and 1970s when liberals took charge of race in America.

In trying to understand 2015’s murder trends, Rosenfeld looked for reasons why cities that already struggled with high levels of violence might see “a precipitous and very abrupt increase”.

Rosenfeld considered two potential alternative explanations: the US heroin epidemic, and the number of former inmates returning home from prison. Neither of these explanations quite lined up with the increase in violence, he said. For instance, the country has been in the midst of a heroin epidemic since 2011. Why there would be a four to five year lag before the epidemic caused murders to spike?

Another possibility, however, is that the Mexican cartels peddling heroin in America have topped out on their target market of nonviolent white people — nobody much cared about white people quietly offing themselves — and are now expanding their business by finally dealing with black urban gangs, which they had tried to avoid before.

Mexico’s drug gangs have been insanely violent in Mexico but discreet in America. Sam Quinones got in with one Mexican outfit of heroin dealers in flyover America, the Xalisco Boys, for his book Dreamland and reported:

They are decidedly nonviolent — terrified, in fact, of battles for street corners with armed gangs. They don’t carry guns. They also have rules against selling to African-Americans because, as one dealer put it, “they’ll steal from you, and beat you.”

The Boys started out on the fringes of the drug world in West Coast cities. In the late 1990s, they moved east in search of virgin territory. They avoided New York City, the country’s traditional center of heroin, because the market was already run by entrenched gangs. … They also skipped cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore, where black gangs control distribution.

The Xalisco Boys migrated instead to prosperous midsize cities. These cities were predominantly white, but had large Mexican populations where the Boys could blend in. They were the first to open these markets to cheap, potent black-tar heroin in a sustained way. The map of their outposts amounts to a tour through our new heroin hubs: Nashville, Columbus and Charlotte, as well as Salt Lake City, Portland and Denver.

But maybe now the Mexican heroin mobs are dealing with black gangs in places like Baltimore and St. Louis? As we saw with crack a quarter of a century ago or the powder cocaine wars of 1980, when urban black gangs get a hot drug, they tend to shoot each other in large numbers in turf wars.

On the other hand, this heroin idea is mostly pure speculation on my part. It goes back to my 1999 debate with economist Steven “Freakonomics” Levitt in Slate when he asked when I figured murder rates would go back up again. I said: eventually there will be a new drug.

But the government’s strategy has been more sophisticated than I anticipated in 1999. Crack was so apocalyptic that the government seems to have been following a multimodal drug war strategy that has been pretty effective:

- Come down extremely hard with imprisonment on drugs that make people more violent, like cocaine.

- Err on the side of downer drugs that make people more passive, like heroin

- Err on the side of abuse of legal drugs, like prescription painkillers

- Err on the side of a multiplicity of drugs so that we don’t get back to a situation like crack cocaine in 1990 or powder cocaine in 1980.

So in the 21st Century the government eased up on prescription painkillers. But so many people started getting addicted and overdosing that it eventually tightened up, which gave an opening to Mexican heroin dealers. That has turned out to be such a disaster that white life expectancy actually declined in the latest statistics.

Mexican heroin dealers were cautious about staying in flyover country that nobody cares about and avoiding big cities with their violent drug gangs and media presence that made Miami world famous (except to economists) in the Scarface / Miami Vice era. In contrast to the glamorous Miami powder cocaine boom of 1980 and the West Coast / East Coast gangsta rap-fueled crack cocaine boom of 1988-1994, the Mexican / redneck heroin bubble of the 2010s has been pretty dismal and downscale, so almost nobody paid attention to it.

We’ll see what happens next.

 
    []
  1. Priss Factor [AKA "Polly Perkins"] says:

    “Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America…”

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called ‘rampage’ or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It’s like the term ‘Jim Crow’ sums up so much about US history.

    Read More
    • Agree: theo the kraut
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    I think Steve covered this not too long ago, and his term was "victory riot".

    The ongoing post-"civil rights" crime wave might be history's longest victory riot.

    (If you exclude the Moslem conquests.)
    , @TB2
    How about Holocaust? That pretty much sums up so much of the anti-white program that black violence is a part of.
    , @Lot

    “Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America…”

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.
     
    I would call it "The Gideon/Miranda Crime Wave," named after the two Supreme Court cases that required states to read criminals their rights and provide them with a free attorney. From Wikipedia:

    About 2000 individuals that had been convicted were freed in Florida alone as a result of the Gideon decision. The decision did not directly result in Gideon being freed; instead, he received a new trial with the appointment of defense counsel at the government's expense.
     
    , @Anonymous Nephew
    What's wrong with "Civil Rights Crimewave" ? As in "... the civil rights crimewave of the 1960s ..."
    , @Reg Cæsar

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called ‘rampage’ or some such thing.
     
    The Civil Riots Movement.
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  2. Mr. Blank says:

    One thing my relatives in law enforcement always stress is that the “Ferguson effect” on law enforcement officers doesn’t have to be very large to produce very big changes. It’s not like the cops are just abandoning the streets — it’s just little stuff here and there, giving a pass to some random knucklehead they would have stopped and hassled a few years ago. Cops catch a surprising number of scary, dangerous guys just by stopping sketchy-looking goofballs who are causing some minor disturbance but otherwise not threatening anyone, because (as the “racist” Broken Windows theory predicts) people who have trouble following the rules in big things also have trouble following the rules about little things. Thus, a lot of officers all easing up at the same time can have a huge effect, even if each individual officer is only making the smallest of changes.

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  3. Didn’t we already cover all this ground in another iSteve thread on a “debunking” research article? It was quite obvious from the data in that paper that the crime increases were in high-black-percentage cities.

    It took them a long time and a new study to catch up with iSteve readers.

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    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    "Always last to know"

    The new motto of the academy.

    Chisel it into the alma mater.
    , @dr kill
    It's about getting paid by us for another study, that's all. Proggs are some study-loving motherfuckers, that's for sure. Why work when you can study, hmmm?
  4. Broski says:

    Ahh, Steve, you’re a national treasure. Linking the uptick in black-on-black murder to market competition from the porous border’s heroin flows. Thank you.

    Read More
  5. TangoMan says:

    The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”

    Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.

    With liberals, the model has to be twisted to meet the narrative. Here it’s economic deterioration and in an earlier study gun ownership rates where a key factor behind homicide. The narrative must be protected.

    Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:

    The largest study of gun violence in the United States, released Thursday afternoon, confirms a point that should be obvious: widespread American gun ownership is fueling America’s gun violence epidemic.

    The study, by Professor Michael Siegel at Boston University and two coauthors, has been peer-reviewed and is forthcoming in the American Journal of Public Health. Siegel and his colleagues compiled data on firearm homicides from all 50 states from 1981-2010, the longest stretch of time ever studied in this fashion, and set about seeing whether they could find any relationship between changes in gun ownership and murder using guns over time.

    Here’s the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.

    So back to the question at hand. What might be the demographic effects on a city arising from a falling population? Might that increase the proportion of the black population? Or are blacks the first to flee thus leaving whites in the city and increasing the proportion of white? Look at the influence of income inequality from the Seigel study and compare to the influence of the percent of city which is black. The Brennan Center turns its focus on “economic deterioration” but I’m not sure how they instrumentalize that variable. A good proxy would be an increasing gini index measure but this is nowhere near as powerful as race, especially when we measure in terms of Standard Deviation and thus capture the effect of concentration of black social dysfunction.

    The “Ferguson Effect” is going to have a greater impact in cities with high black concentrations than in cities with low black representation, so police in two cities with different demographics, acting on the same reluctance to be the next star of a viral video are going to end up with different effect size outcomes in terms of homicides. High concentrations of blacks need a stronger hand to keep them in line and this pays off, as pre-Ferguson homicide rates indicate.

    The social factor conditions listed in the quote create almost a perfect storm for changing the demographics of a city towards one where black concentrations are going to be the factor which explodes the homicide rate and it is precisely these conditions which require a heavy handed police presence to keep a lid on things.

    A good test for the question of whether economic deterioration is the key factor behind the rise in homicides is to find white communities which have suffered the same degree of economic deterioration as these cities which have experienced a rise in post-Ferguson homicides and see if there has been a commensurate rise in their homicide rate for it seems the police all across the nation are pulling back due to the scape-goating which is being focused on them.

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    • Replies: @res

    Here’s the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.
     
    Wow. The punchline was obvious, but I was still stunned by the effect sizes. A 5.2% increase in firearm homicide for each 1% increase in % black?! I wonder if there is any significant nonlinear effect.
    , @415 reasons
    Tables 2 and 3 are truly an exercise in absurdity. The confidence interval for gun ownership is just a smidge above 1, and the effect of percent black is literally about four times as strong. And yet, they then sort by p value and then bin all p values lower than .001, just so they can put gun ownership above race in the table!.

    I guess they missed the day they taught about scientific notation. And the day about counting numbers from lowest to highest.

    The only thing more absurd than this way of presenting the data is the rest of the paper. They literally found an explanation in their same data set with over four times as much explanatory power, and gun ownership barely rises above statistical noise, but the narrative decides that the title of the paper should be about gun ownership. Insane.

    , @Mr. Anon
    "Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:"

    Also unstated by them is the fact that gun ownership itself might be correlated with how heavily black an area is. People who live in dangerous places might be inclined to buy a gun for self-defense.
  6. The Sailer Gap is shortening! Calling it now. 2052 is the year people MAY consider that IQ could be PARTLY genetic.

    We can do it Stevarino!

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    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    "The Sailer Gap is shortening! Calling it now. 2052 is the year people MAY consider that IQ could be PARTLY genetic."

    In the mean time, perhaps you can just explain your stupidity as due to a blow to the head.
  7. helena says:

    “the “racist” Broken Windows theory predicts) people who have trouble following the rules in big things also have trouble following the rules about little things.”

    Whereas, liberals just love the ‘slippery slope’ – hate speech, guilt by association. You can always expect double standards from liberals. When they think they’re morally right, no holds are barred as to how they frame the message. The ‘end justifies the means’ for liberals. Liberals would rather lie, including to themselves, than admit they’re wrong.

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  8. BenKenobi says:

    Steve, you gotta figure out how to invoice these bien pensant media people.

    Just as Trump’s gonna make Mexico pay for the wall, you can make the NYT pay for your insight!

    (yes I know this Beckett character doesn’t write for the NYT)

    OT obligatory heteronormative chauvinism: a quick google image shows us that young Lois is a not-ugly redhead. I would. Rebuttals?

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    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    OT reactive heteronormative prejudice:

    Yeah, but redheads make risky LTRs.
  9. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it”

    That’s the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It’s worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it’s time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it’s not when you really think about it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The most deplorable one
    Tiny D*ck said:

    It’s worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country.
     
    Would that be Nat King Cole?

    Perhaps you were trying to say: People of Choler.
    , @Rich
    Or, since "people of color" are the ones doing the killing, bar them from owning or carrying firearms or knives and subject them to random searches as well as deportation of all illegal aliens. That might sound fair and it is if you really think about it.
    , @dumpstersquirrel
    "It’s worrisome because People of Cole [sic] are the future if [sic] the country."

    That is a worrisome thought. But you misspelled "Coal."
    , @iSteveFan

    I think it’s time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it’s not when you really think about it.
     
    I think we ought to go one step further and just segregate the entire white population. Make them live in their own towns, attend their own schools and work at their own businesses.
    , @anon
    If white guys were dying something wound be done.

    Did you read the article? They did do something when black people were killing each other in the crack epidemic. They did a bunch of things, and then black people started complaining about those things, which is why the police largely stopped.
    , @Anonymous
    'Old King Cole was a merry old soul, a merry old soul was he'.
  10. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?
    , @Jim Don Bob
    You forgot the "sarc" tag.
    , @dumpstersquirrel
    "We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men."

    Translation: Aybah poda hep! Which is ebonics for: Everybody is supposed to help...... by giving me free shit from cradle to grave.
    , @Mike Sylwester
    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    We as a country are allowing millions of immigrates to take a huge portion of our country's low-skill jobs. Our economically most displaced native citizens are our young Black men.

    In the Ferguson case, Michael Brown was permanently unemployed. Only 18, he already had made himself uneducable and unemployable by smoking marijuana all day every day.

    Brown robbed a store that employed only Pakistani immigrants. A few days later, mobs of local Blacks burned down several beauty stores that employed only Korean immigrants.

    If we as a country continue to import millions of low-skill foreigners, our Black men will continue to suffer very high unemployment.

    (This is my second response to your comment. I failed to link my first response to your comment, but you can find it in this thread.)
    , @anon
    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism


    So are they policing black neighborhoods too aggressively or not aggressively enough? It's kind of funny how you acknowledge that there's really nothing the police could do that you would find acceptable.
    , @Lurker
    Correct. Black people need to be protected from the pernicious effects of white racism. They should have their own police, courts, prisons, schools etc. They should have their own territory free of white people. In fact they already have that. Its called Africa.

    Now, please explain what the is problem with separation in light of your black victimhood narrative. Thank you.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.
     
    These blacks, at least outside the South, tend to live in cities where the whites are Democrats. So why won't these white Democrats hire them either?

    Hell, why won't even the Southern Poverty Law Center hire them?

    And whites will hire blacks... when Mexicans are unavailable. Check out who changes your sheets at the Motel 6 in low-immigration cities like Grand Rapids.
  11. AndrewR says:

    Obama is trying hard to beat out Dubya as the worst president since the 1860s.

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    • Replies: @IA

    Obama is trying hard to beat out Dubya as the worst president since the 1860s.
     
    Worse for who? All the blacks hired at the Federal level? Do you understand the concept of black racial nepotism?
  12. Unit472 says:

    I don’t doubt the ‘Ferguson’ effect but we may also have an Obama effect starting to develop as convicts are granted early parole and cities with large black populations go ‘soft’ on crime with prosecutors and jurors undermining even zealous police efforts.

    I’m a fan of the A&E TV show The First 48 which chronicles homicide investigations in various American cities. One cannot help but notice the disparity in charges and sentencing for essentially the same crime. In Dallas a murderer is going to get charged with capital murder and get a life term but in Cleveland the same crime, say shooting store clerk or robbing and killing a drug dealer will be plea bargained down to ( or a jury only voting to convict) a lesser charge of 2nd degree murder or manslaughter with sentences of 20 years or less.

    The problem ,in the case of Obama’s clemency program, is that the ‘ non violent’ drug offender given early release from prison is often either the perpetrator or victim in a future homicide. Hoodrats shoot each other over trivial slights or small quantities of drugs to include marijuana! As to lax sentencing, giving an 16 to 21 year old killer a 15 year sentence for manslaughter means you will be releasing a hardened, unemployable ex con back into society before age and maturity have lowered his propensity for violent crime.

    Read More
    • Replies: @biz
    The First 48 should be required viewing for every American. It is not only real life-and-death human drama, but portrays law enforcement and crime in a way that news and analysis just cannot.

    Among the many tidbits from that show (in no particular order):
    - people will murder over tiny insults
    - almost everything in a major city is caught on camera
    - criminals do stupid things like attempt to sell back registered cell phones stolen from murder victims
    - when criminals are caught reactions vary, but many view being sent to prison for life with the same amount of gravity that I view going for a routine dental exam
    - white-on-white homicide is rarer but exactly what stereotypes would predict (domestic disputes and quarrels over women fueled by alcohol)

  13. Unit472 says:
    @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tom-in-VA
    Easy peesey, it's the legacy of slavery, which is SO pernicious, it increases even as it gets further away in time. It's for that reason that people like Bandicoot Cumbersnatch and his ilk must pay reparations to the people of the Caribbean.
    , @Jim
    The US Virgin Islands has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. High rates of violence are common in Sub-Saharan African descended populations all over the world. In contrast consider Chinese populations in places like Indonesia where the Chinese populations have been subject to often horrific persecution. Nevertheless the Chinese populations of Indonesia have low levels of violence.
    , @anon
    And why is all black Haiti such a total basket case? It has virtually zero whites.
    Why do blacks in Canada and England have the same high rates of violence and crime when there was no history of slavery or segregation in either country?
    , @E. Rekshun
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    White British Colonialism, of course.
    , @Expletive Deleted
    Many cricket-playing countries are extraordinarily violent.
    All part of the great Imperial legacy, along with rum, sodomy and the lash.
  14. Arclight says:

    How much of the post-crack decline in violence is due to the selective pressure of widespread violence that took thousands of criminally prone and violent people out of circulation? Could there be a similar effect after a few years of elevated violence in the cities mentioned above?

    There are occasionally innocent bystanders involved, but in my experience most of the violence is pretty targeted, and it’s usually active rivals not some person who is only tangentially involved in drug or gang activity.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn't as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.
  15. Paul Rise says:

    Heroin and porous borders have been around a long time. A more recent development that tracks well with the crime rise is legal marijuana flooding markets from Colorado and Washington. It’s having a disruptive effect on established operations. Consider whatever happened to that family in Ohio.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist

    A more recent development that tracks well with the crime rise is legal marijuana flooding markets from Colorado and Washington.
     
    Good Point!!!

    Lots of too high THC content pot rejected by legal marijuana market is simply being dumped on the street.

    Combine high THC pot with DXM based over the counter cough syrup and you what is known as "Robotripping". Robotripping is the poor man's PCP and is known to cause psychosis.

    Both Trayvon and Michael Brown's buddies were known Robotrippers.

    Skittles + Watermelon Juice + DXM syrup is a popular Robotripping formula.

    Chronic DXM abuse causes brain damage and severe gastrointestinal distress. Like his favorite Robotripping promoting rapper Lil Wayne, Trayvon suffered from gas and diarrhea.

    Autopsies still rarely test for DXM levels since it is a very popular over the counter drug.

    However in many third world countries DXM is regulated and no longer available without prescription precisely due to abuse linked to violence.

    Most of the increase in recent ghetto violence is due to "TNB" combined with the "Ferguson" effect.

    But "Robotripping" is definitely a factor.
  16. @Arclight
    How much of the post-crack decline in violence is due to the selective pressure of widespread violence that took thousands of criminally prone and violent people out of circulation? Could there be a similar effect after a few years of elevated violence in the cities mentioned above?

    There are occasionally innocent bystanders involved, but in my experience most of the violence is pretty targeted, and it's usually active rivals not some person who is only tangentially involved in drug or gang activity.

    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn’t as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.

    Read More
    • Agree: E. Rekshun
    • Replies: @Sean the Neon Caucasian
    Well, right or wrong, ethically,, access to legal abortion helped the decrease, too. The welfare state didn't have as many Afros in it, either, so that combined with blacks doing genocide on their own ethnicity kept a lot of potential thugs out of circulation. Gee, who would've thought paying unproductive people to have kids would lead to....unproductive people having kids?
    , @Alec Leamas
    I'm of the opinion that the 1994 Violent Crime Act was largely responsible for the decrease in violent crime - Federalizing crimes and providing mandatory minimums (30 year prison terms in Federal Court where they're served) meant taking criminal All Stars off the field for the remainder of their careers. Also, the Federal penitentiary system allows you to house a NYC armed crack dealer in Terre Haute, Indiana where he can't easily run his business from within the jail. That probably also had a similar effect that concerted law enforcement pressure had on organized crime - the more able and cunning criminals having been caught and incarcerated, their successors usually dip in quality making them easier to catch. You do this enough and the criminal organization that remains is a shadow of its former self. In a few generations, instead of controlling Union pension funds and skimming from casinos, they're stealing box trucks full of frozen turkeys and women's polyester sweatpants.

    Charts of violent crime clearly show a peak in and around 1994 and significant reduction thereafter.
    , @Yep
    Then why are we constantly told that the War on Drugs failed?
    , @anon
    and if the average age when they died was say 25 and the average age of their kids was say 5 and there was a genetic component then it would take c. 20 years for the kids to grow up to be just like dad.

    like rebellions in history books with a 20-25 year cycle
  17. Arclight says:

    In other news, let’s catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "In other news, let’s catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom."

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.

  18. Why should White cops risk their lives (and their families’ lives in the event of a media shitstorm) to prevent black criminals from killing other black criminals?

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    See the same thing in prison where guards are often reluctant to interfere in fights among the convicts. Why risk your life, make your kids fatherless, and your wife a widow to get in the middle of a knife fight between Jamal and Jerome?
  19. Yak-15 says:

    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals? I am fine with the murder rate being very high in black areas so long as they stay out of my area. If they do not want the dwindling police resources in my city to stop them from murdering each other, I see no problem with that. I just wish we would airdrop birth control and set up more Planned Parenthood clinics. And this brings me to my favorite argument with progressive types.

    I invariably get into the HBD theories and how African Americans on average have lower IQs, higher propensity for crime, lower time preference, etc. At some point a few of the people I argue with have came back at me with something to this affect: “So what if you are correct and all these things about blacks are true? What do you suggest we do about it? What is your solution?”

    To that I replied “Nothing. There is nothing we as a society can do to change these genetic realities short of eugenics. However, on a personal level, you already build every aspect of your lives as if you believe these facts. You went to high end colleges with few blacks. You work in a company almost completely devoid of blacks. You spend enormous amounts of money to live in areas away from African Americans. Similarly, you will never send your kids to school with many African Americans. And lastly, you chronically avoid African American areas after dark or in contexts that would make you unsafe.

    Essentially your lives are lived exclusively away from blacks. This is due to innate differences in intellectual capabilities and out of fear for your safety. That is reality you have chosen and your actions prove you believe what I say whether you want to admit it or not.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lurker
    Awesome!
    , @anon
    Super-awesome!
    , @anon

    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals?
     
    1. Detroit
    2. Section 8

    the bad guys aren't gonna stop until you run out of places to white flight to
  20. STEVE YOU ARE MISSING THE BIG PICTURE AND THE META ANALYSIS!!!!

    The “Ferguson” effect on black crime rates is not the real story here. The supposed “Liberal” analysis was just a smokescreen to give the “BLM” movement enough time to develop under the guise of some degree of either credibility or more likely to disguise its clearly harmful effects. The purpose of the entire “BLM” movement is simply the its own creation in and of itself as a way of building another far left organization that will provide employment for and funnel funds to a core of far left and racial activists.

    Gee, how convenient is it that now in every city where there is a BLM infrastructure, George Soros can in a matter of minutes have a gang of thugs on the street to attempt disrupt any opposing political rally or movement he chooses.

    This is tradition of a long line of “trial of the century” sensations and sometimes outright hoaxes like Ferguson and Trayvon which primarily existed as means of building the institutional left and/or cementing Jewish ethnocentric organizations.

    1913 Leo Frank …….ADL
    1920s Sacco and Vanzetti…….ACLU(with help from B’nai B’rith) &American Communist Party
    1930s Scottsboro Boys ……. NAACP & Communist Party
    1950s The Rosenbergs ……. Communist Party
    1950s Emmett Till …… Radical Sixties Civil Rights movements
    1960s La Raza/Black Panthers
    1970s SPLC
    1980s Open Borders Movement
    The list goes on and on.

    It is how the left works.

    Read More
    • Replies: @antipater_1
    Whenever someones says "The list goes on and on", that means the list ends right there.
  21. Tom-in-VA says:
    @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    Easy peesey, it’s the legacy of slavery, which is SO pernicious, it increases even as it gets further away in time. It’s for that reason that people like Bandicoot Cumbersnatch and his ilk must pay reparations to the people of the Caribbean.

    Read More
  22. @Chrisnonymous
    Didn't we already cover all this ground in another iSteve thread on a "debunking" research article? It was quite obvious from the data in that paper that the crime increases were in high-black-percentage cities.

    It took them a long time and a new study to catch up with iSteve readers.

    “Always last to know”

    The new motto of the academy.

    Chisel it into the alma mater.

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  23. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    Conservative writer Heather Mac Donald warned in May 2015 that protests over police behavior would only backfire on black citizens.

    Shouldn’t that be blackfire?

    Read More
    • Replies: @SFG
    It didn't say 'alt-right writer Heather MacDonald'.
  24. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourths doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    Even if the increase in homicide is significant, there are many competing theories for what may be responsible.

    Sadly, they are not actually looking for the real causes.

    If they were they would list these:

    1. If some racial group(s) contain a greater proportion of individuals with a (genetic) propensity for violence,

    2. And you signal that you will tolerate violence from them,

    3. Lethal violence goes up.

    Read More
  25. “Ferguson effect”- Overpaid government employees not doing the job they are paid to do because their lack of self control, inbred dishonesty, and cowardice causes them to normally commit acts that would send them to prison for the rest of their lives if the same acts were committed by honest citizens instead of government thugs.

    Disarm all cops.

    Citizens should be armed, not government employees.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    you should be dropped in the middle of some nasty ghetto with no money or phone just as it's getting dark
  26. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    Tiny D*ck said:

    It’s worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country.

    Would that be Nat King Cole?

    Perhaps you were trying to say: People of Choler.

    Read More
  27. @Steve Sailer
    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn't as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.

    Well, right or wrong, ethically,, access to legal abortion helped the decrease, too. The welfare state didn’t have as many Afros in it, either, so that combined with blacks doing genocide on their own ethnicity kept a lot of potential thugs out of circulation. Gee, who would’ve thought paying unproductive people to have kids would lead to….unproductive people having kids?

    Read More
    • Replies: @TWS
    Steve's already done the math showing this is entirely false. Murdering children before they are born does not reduce crime.
  28. @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    You forgot the “sarc” tag.

    Read More
  29. With funding from the National Institute of Justice, the justice department’s research arm, Rosenfeld did a new study early this year…”

    Maybe someone who is a research professional can explain this to me. Rosenfeld downloaded some crime stats, made a few time series and bumped them up against several hypotheses. Seems like a leisurely afternoon’s work for a competent researcher. Why do these guys never seem to bother until a (6- or 7-figure?) federal check arrives? Isn’t this what academics are supposed to be doing by default even without special federal funding? Yet I so often see in press accounts that some rudimentary piece of research was only enabled by a big dollop of taxpayer dough. It’s as if these guys are sitting around the faculty lounge on semi-permanent strike, only shifting their sorry butts into gear when massively bribed. Am I missing something? Besides the cushiest gravy train in country?

    Read More
  30. If Trump gets elected I’m moving to Haiti.

    Read More
  31. @Priss Factor
    "Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America..."

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called 'rampage' or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It's like the term 'Jim Crow' sums up so much about US history.

    I think Steve covered this not too long ago, and his term was “victory riot”.

    The ongoing post-”civil rights” crime wave might be history’s longest victory riot.

    (If you exclude the Moslem conquests.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Priss Factor
    'Victory riot' sounds like a momentary thing.

    What we have is ongoing violence. Maybe it should be called Mayhem.

    How about era of Willie Horton? Or Winston Moseley?

    Jim Crow vs Willie Horton.
  32. biz says:
    @Unit472
    I don't doubt the 'Ferguson' effect but we may also have an Obama effect starting to develop as convicts are granted early parole and cities with large black populations go 'soft' on crime with prosecutors and jurors undermining even zealous police efforts.

    I'm a fan of the A&E TV show The First 48 which chronicles homicide investigations in various American cities. One cannot help but notice the disparity in charges and sentencing for essentially the same crime. In Dallas a murderer is going to get charged with capital murder and get a life term but in Cleveland the same crime, say shooting store clerk or robbing and killing a drug dealer will be plea bargained down to ( or a jury only voting to convict) a lesser charge of 2nd degree murder or manslaughter with sentences of 20 years or less.

    The problem ,in the case of Obama's clemency program, is that the ' non violent' drug offender given early release from prison is often either the perpetrator or victim in a future homicide. Hoodrats shoot each other over trivial slights or small quantities of drugs to include marijuana! As to lax sentencing, giving an 16 to 21 year old killer a 15 year sentence for manslaughter means you will be releasing a hardened, unemployable ex con back into society before age and maturity have lowered his propensity for violent crime.

    The First 48 should be required viewing for every American. It is not only real life-and-death human drama, but portrays law enforcement and crime in a way that news and analysis just cannot.

    Among the many tidbits from that show (in no particular order):
    - people will murder over tiny insults
    - almost everything in a major city is caught on camera
    - criminals do stupid things like attempt to sell back registered cell phones stolen from murder victims
    - when criminals are caught reactions vary, but many view being sent to prison for life with the same amount of gravity that I view going for a routine dental exam
    - white-on-white homicide is rarer but exactly what stereotypes would predict (domestic disputes and quarrels over women fueled by alcohol)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    The Wire and similar shows portraying the vibrancy of life were ahead of their MSM time.
  33. Jim says:
    @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    The US Virgin Islands has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. High rates of violence are common in Sub-Saharan African descended populations all over the world. In contrast consider Chinese populations in places like Indonesia where the Chinese populations have been subject to often horrific persecution. Nevertheless the Chinese populations of Indonesia have low levels of violence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The most deplorable one
    Those damn Chinese are just so racist for continually striving to make other races look bad!

    Why, just recently, I heard that they only took two years to execute a criminal who killed another Chinese person.
  34. countenance says: • Website

    The Ferguson Effect is far more valid in the arena of the black undertow being agitated than it is in the level of law enforcement. What it means is that more cops and more enforcement won’t solve much, what it will take is for the natives to get restful. Or at the very least, for the (((media))) not to amp them up.

    Crime rates did increase in St. Louis even before August 9, 2014, and it went up in 2013. But that does not disprove the Ferguson Effect, in fact, it proves it. It’s just that it shows that the Ferguson Effect deserves a different name. The reason for the increases in 2013 and 2014 had to do with another late teens young black man who was news about that time, and he’s suddenly news again: Trayvon Martin. The media whipped up Trayvonmania to help re-elect Obama, and that happened, and a combination of both leading into the start of 2013 was a cue to the undertow that they could start raging out. Trayvon’s father, incidentally, is a native of East St. Louis.

    Read More
    • Agree: Alec Leamas
    • Replies: @anon
    I think you may be right: a stirring effect first eventually leading to a police backing off effect.

    It's amazing how many people the media can kill without firing a shot themselves.
    , @Steve Sailer
    Maybe they should call it the Obama Effect?
  35. res says:
    @TangoMan
    The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”

    Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.

    With liberals, the model has to be twisted to meet the narrative. Here it's economic deterioration and in an earlier study gun ownership rates where a key factor behind homicide. The narrative must be protected.

    Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:


    The largest study of gun violence in the United States, released Thursday afternoon, confirms a point that should be obvious: widespread American gun ownership is fueling America’s gun violence epidemic.

    The study, by Professor Michael Siegel at Boston University and two coauthors, has been peer-reviewed and is forthcoming in the American Journal of Public Health. Siegel and his colleagues compiled data on firearm homicides from all 50 states from 1981-2010, the longest stretch of time ever studied in this fashion, and set about seeing whether they could find any relationship between changes in gun ownership and murder using guns over time.
     

    Here's the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.

    So back to the question at hand. What might be the demographic effects on a city arising from a falling population? Might that increase the proportion of the black population? Or are blacks the first to flee thus leaving whites in the city and increasing the proportion of white? Look at the influence of income inequality from the Seigel study and compare to the influence of the percent of city which is black. The Brennan Center turns its focus on "economic deterioration" but I'm not sure how they instrumentalize that variable. A good proxy would be an increasing gini index measure but this is nowhere near as powerful as race, especially when we measure in terms of Standard Deviation and thus capture the effect of concentration of black social dysfunction.

    The "Ferguson Effect" is going to have a greater impact in cities with high black concentrations than in cities with low black representation, so police in two cities with different demographics, acting on the same reluctance to be the next star of a viral video are going to end up with different effect size outcomes in terms of homicides. High concentrations of blacks need a stronger hand to keep them in line and this pays off, as pre-Ferguson homicide rates indicate.

    The social factor conditions listed in the quote create almost a perfect storm for changing the demographics of a city towards one where black concentrations are going to be the factor which explodes the homicide rate and it is precisely these conditions which require a heavy handed police presence to keep a lid on things.

    A good test for the question of whether economic deterioration is the key factor behind the rise in homicides is to find white communities which have suffered the same degree of economic deterioration as these cities which have experienced a rise in post-Ferguson homicides and see if there has been a commensurate rise in their homicide rate for it seems the police all across the nation are pulling back due to the scape-goating which is being focused on them.

    Here’s the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.

    Wow. The punchline was obvious, but I was still stunned by the effect sizes. A 5.2% increase in firearm homicide for each 1% increase in % black?! I wonder if there is any significant nonlinear effect.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    "I was still stunned by the effects sizes. A 5.2% increase in firearm homicide for each 1% increase in % black?!"


    Even a small, or very small increase in the black population in any given area can have a dramatic impact on crime. This became apparent as early as the early 1970's in formerly all white Toronto. London, England saw a similar phenomenon. Even a small black population can cause a lot of trouble.
  36. The Xalisco Boys migrated instead to prosperous midsize cities. These cities were predominantly white, but had large Mexican populations where the Boys could blend in

    The CDC breaks down ethnic heroin death rates into two age groups 18-44 and 45-64.

    Whites 18-44 had higher death rates from heroin than whites 45-64. Conversely, blacks 45-64 had higher death rates than blacks 18-44. Hispanic death rates were even for both age groups. The trends were the same in the years 2000 and 2013.

    Older blacks would have gotten hooked on prescription opioids then been motivated enough to travel to white areas to get heroin. With heroin sales moving to black areas, it would be reasonable to expect the heroin death rate of 18-44 blacks to eclipse 45-64 blacks.

    Figure 4. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db190.pdf

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  37. res says:

    Obama himself cautioned against trying to “cherry-pick” crime data last year, and Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that while the idea of the Ferguson effect had been bolstered by anecdotes, “there’s no data to support it”.

    Other than that 17% increase in homicides from 2014 to 2015.

    Steve, how can you question the Obama administration on this? I think one thing all of us on iSteve can agree on is that the Obama administration has extensive experience with cherry-picking statistics (especially with regard to crime data).

    I sincerely hope it’s not necessary for anyone, but just in case ;-/

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  38. Rich says:
    @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    Or, since “people of color” are the ones doing the killing, bar them from owning or carrying firearms or knives and subject them to random searches as well as deportation of all illegal aliens. That might sound fair and it is if you really think about it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SFG
    That was stop-and-frisk, more or less (minus the deportation bit). It turned Manhattan into a 'high-end product', as Bloomberg put it.
  39. I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind, since he’s going against the narrative and thus endangering future prospects for grants, employment, etc. He has some integrity and we see that less and less, especially at the highest level of government. I’m sure our first black president knows that a lot of the things he says about crime and policing are untrue, but he says them anyway. It would be great if he would take a break from chastising the police and mention that blacks should stop committing so much crime, should stop resisting arrest, and should stop bitching about the shooting of Michael Brown, who only got what was coming to him.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    Maybe he senses the narrative is going to change under president Trump and he is getting with the program?
    , @Mr. Anon
    "I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind,...."

    If you hire enough sociologists, you're bound to find an honest one once in a while.
  40. During a recent appearance on the O’Reilly show Patrick Lynch, head of the NYPD Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association (“PBA”) admitted that the adverse publicity that has resulted from events such as Ferguson has had what amounts to a chilling effect on the ability of his people to do their job. Is there any surprise that the criminal element in these neighborhoods has become emboldened.

    By the way, I notice that Detroit is not among the top ten cities with the largest percentage increase in homicides. This suggests that Detroit has either suddenly became peaceful or that the crime statisticians have simply thrown in the towel and don’t even bother keeping statistics anymore.

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  41. IA says:
    @AndrewR
    Obama is trying hard to beat out Dubya as the worst president since the 1860s.

    Obama is trying hard to beat out Dubya as the worst president since the 1860s.

    Worse for who? All the blacks hired at the Federal level? Do you understand the concept of black racial nepotism?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Worst for whom? For the US. And frankly I'm not sure history will show he'll have done well by blacks. They need tough love.
  42. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    We’ve always had various studies throughout the years to put blacks under the microscope to see why they are the way they are. It’s usually whites trying out their pet theories such as them suffering from collective lead poisoning and so on. Whenever the occasional black gets consulted it’s usually also standard fare: white society is to blame and send mo’ money. A long time ago an old timer explained it to me this way: ‘they is what they is, they does what they does’. Well, it’s true, this is what they are and this is what they do. It’s just that whites don’t care for that, tribal warfare doesn’t mesh well with a modern society so they’re always agonizing over how to turn blacks into carbon-copy whites. Can’t be done.

    Read More
  43. carol says:

    So, just legalize pot and end the War on Drugs, then poof! Problem over! Oh regulate and tax it!

    What do the libertarians say about this anyway? I haven’t kept up.

    Read More
  44. Mexican heroin dealers were cautious about staying in flyover country that nobody cares about and avoiding big cities with their violent drug gangs and media presence

    I’ve met otherwise intelligent people who thought virtually everyone who was on welfare/food stamps was black. They didn’t take into account that the major media outlets are located cities with large black populations and invariably they were looking at welfare offices in DC, Atlanta, and New York City, not Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Portland.

    I’ve been impressed with Latin American criminals’ ability to take advantage of US laws and regulations and understand our social behavior . They were smart enough to smuggle children to the US from Central America because the kids couldn’t be easily deported like Mexicans. They not only recognized that prescription opioid users were turning to heroin, but they knew to target whites and avoid both black gangs and media presence.

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  45. “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said.”

    Your blog is 99% despair/rage porn, Steve, but once in awhile you share some good news with us. Thanks.

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  46. That’s the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done.

    I know you’re being facetious but they’re really on the horns of a dilemma: a) accept aggressive policing that will make life safer for the vast majority of blacks and save measurable young black lives, while accepting that from time to time a black – usually in the commission of a felony – will be killed by (probably white) police; or, b) persist in exposing police to infamy for properly doing their jobs. The Shaun King best of both worlds solution is unobtainable because he wants to roast police for doing their jobs when there is a bad outcome arising from black criminality. White cops (or cops of any race for that matter) offering their lives up for the sake of racial harmony in deadly conflicts with violent black criminals is probably not in the cards either.

    The reality is that the toothpaste can’t be put back in the tube at this point because the BLM agitation and crucifixion of good cops doing their jobs is coming from the Eye of Soros, and it will not abate regardless of whether it is responsible for the deaths of black men because it is politically useful.

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    • Replies: @Fun
    The 'just doing their jobs' line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent, the overzealous police response resulted in unnecessary deaths, and consequences were nil. These weren't good cops valiantly protecting us from criminals. They were shit cops, acting like dumb meatheads, and people lost their lives because of that.
  47. @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    “It’s worrisome because People of Cole [sic] are the future if [sic] the country.”

    That is a worrisome thought. But you misspelled “Coal.”

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  48. @TangoMan
    The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”

    Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.

    With liberals, the model has to be twisted to meet the narrative. Here it's economic deterioration and in an earlier study gun ownership rates where a key factor behind homicide. The narrative must be protected.

    Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:


    The largest study of gun violence in the United States, released Thursday afternoon, confirms a point that should be obvious: widespread American gun ownership is fueling America’s gun violence epidemic.

    The study, by Professor Michael Siegel at Boston University and two coauthors, has been peer-reviewed and is forthcoming in the American Journal of Public Health. Siegel and his colleagues compiled data on firearm homicides from all 50 states from 1981-2010, the longest stretch of time ever studied in this fashion, and set about seeing whether they could find any relationship between changes in gun ownership and murder using guns over time.
     

    Here's the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.

    So back to the question at hand. What might be the demographic effects on a city arising from a falling population? Might that increase the proportion of the black population? Or are blacks the first to flee thus leaving whites in the city and increasing the proportion of white? Look at the influence of income inequality from the Seigel study and compare to the influence of the percent of city which is black. The Brennan Center turns its focus on "economic deterioration" but I'm not sure how they instrumentalize that variable. A good proxy would be an increasing gini index measure but this is nowhere near as powerful as race, especially when we measure in terms of Standard Deviation and thus capture the effect of concentration of black social dysfunction.

    The "Ferguson Effect" is going to have a greater impact in cities with high black concentrations than in cities with low black representation, so police in two cities with different demographics, acting on the same reluctance to be the next star of a viral video are going to end up with different effect size outcomes in terms of homicides. High concentrations of blacks need a stronger hand to keep them in line and this pays off, as pre-Ferguson homicide rates indicate.

    The social factor conditions listed in the quote create almost a perfect storm for changing the demographics of a city towards one where black concentrations are going to be the factor which explodes the homicide rate and it is precisely these conditions which require a heavy handed police presence to keep a lid on things.

    A good test for the question of whether economic deterioration is the key factor behind the rise in homicides is to find white communities which have suffered the same degree of economic deterioration as these cities which have experienced a rise in post-Ferguson homicides and see if there has been a commensurate rise in their homicide rate for it seems the police all across the nation are pulling back due to the scape-goating which is being focused on them.

    Tables 2 and 3 are truly an exercise in absurdity. The confidence interval for gun ownership is just a smidge above 1, and the effect of percent black is literally about four times as strong. And yet, they then sort by p value and then bin all p values lower than .001, just so they can put gun ownership above race in the table!.

    I guess they missed the day they taught about scientific notation. And the day about counting numbers from lowest to highest.

    The only thing more absurd than this way of presenting the data is the rest of the paper. They literally found an explanation in their same data set with over four times as much explanatory power, and gun ownership barely rises above statistical noise, but the narrative decides that the title of the paper should be about gun ownership. Insane.

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    • Replies: @TangoMan
    The technical term for this strategy is "Squid Ink." It gives the risk-averse researcher cover from the career-destroying mobs.

    I'm not so worked up by the misdirection because the data is included and the data tells the tale.

    The press though has more latitude and can tell the truth and not suffer career destroying witch hunts. They, after all , shape the culture.
  49. The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    The primary cause of such killings is that Blacks try to resist and escape arrest. One sociological study found that Blacks do so about eight times as often as Whites.

    African Americans in San Francisco are cited for resisting arrest at a rate eight times greater than whites even when serious crimes are not involved, according to statistics drawn from court records.

    From January 2010 to April 24 of this year, law enforcement officers cited suspects with resisting arrest 9,633 times in cases where the suspect was not charged with a felony. African Americans accounted for 45 percent of those cited, even though they make up just 6 percent of the city’s population.

    In the Ferguson case, Michael Brown was admonished by police officer Darren Wilson to stop walking in the middle of the street. Brown responded by punching Wilson in the face. Wilson was sitting in his police vehicle, and Brown punched him through the vehicle’s window and then tried to grab Wilson’s pistol. Then Brown ran away, turned around and charged at Wilson.

    That’s what happened, according to Eric Holder, US Attorney General in President Obama’s administration. Holder sent a large group of FBI special agents to Ferguson, and they questioned all the witnesses and examined all the evidence. Subsequently, the US Department of Justice published a report that included the following key conclusions (emphasis added):

    Wilson’s account was consistent with those results [the autopsy, DNA, and ballistic results], and consistent with the accounts of other independent witnesses, whose accounts were also consistent with the physical evidence. Wilson’s statements were consistent with each other in all material ways, and would not be subject to effective impeachment for inconsistencies or deviation from the physical evidence.

    Therefore, in analyzing all of the evidence, federal prosecutors found Wilson’s account to be credible.

    and

    The evidence establishes that the shots fired by Wilson after Brown turned around were in self-defense and were not objectively unreasonable under the Fourth Amendment.

    So US Attorney General Eric Holder, an African-American himself, found that police officer Darren Wilson shot Michael Brown in self-defense. Holder did not find any racism in the Ferguson incident.

    http://people-who-did-not-see.blogspot.com/2016/03/blacks-are-more-likely-to-be-shot-by.html

    http://people-who-did-not-see.blogspot.com/2015/04/this-blog-provides-better-answer-to.html

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  50. iSteveFan says:
    @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    I think it’s time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it’s not when you really think about it.

    I think we ought to go one step further and just segregate the entire white population. Make them live in their own towns, attend their own schools and work at their own businesses.

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    • Replies: @dr kill
    Yeah, that'll teach'em. Make them live with only other white people. See how they like that. No asians, no blacks, no browns. Only white folks. None of that vibrant diversity that makes the rest of the USA so enjoyable and prosperous. Truly this punishment fits the crime.
  51. @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    “We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.”

    Translation: Aybah poda hep! Which is ebonics for: Everybody is supposed to help…… by giving me free shit from cradle to grave.

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    • Replies: @athEIst
    Aybah poda hep!
    LOL
    +1 even if it was shooting fish in a barrel.
  52. @Steve Sailer
    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn't as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.

    I’m of the opinion that the 1994 Violent Crime Act was largely responsible for the decrease in violent crime – Federalizing crimes and providing mandatory minimums (30 year prison terms in Federal Court where they’re served) meant taking criminal All Stars off the field for the remainder of their careers. Also, the Federal penitentiary system allows you to house a NYC armed crack dealer in Terre Haute, Indiana where he can’t easily run his business from within the jail. That probably also had a similar effect that concerted law enforcement pressure had on organized crime – the more able and cunning criminals having been caught and incarcerated, their successors usually dip in quality making them easier to catch. You do this enough and the criminal organization that remains is a shadow of its former self. In a few generations, instead of controlling Union pension funds and skimming from casinos, they’re stealing box trucks full of frozen turkeys and women’s polyester sweatpants.

    Charts of violent crime clearly show a peak in and around 1994 and significant reduction thereafter.

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  53. Ed says:

    The black underclass is highly disordered & dysfunctional left to their own devices it’s literally the law of the jungle. Actually it’s worse because even primitive African cultures have basic rules.

    So you either have a stern policing force, Jim Crow like social conditions or you have chaos.

    Last year Dave Weigel quoted an Alabama farmer before Trump’s big rally there.

    Of course this generated the requisite gasps from liberals but it was a very astute comment. This farmer has had far more exposure to blacks then the vast majority of liberals. He could see that some were trash & others not so much. Liberals don’t acknowledge such distinctions or in Isteve parlance don’t notice. Not noticing is bad for society & the future.

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    • Replies: @IA
    I'd say Obama has done far more damage to western civilization compared to low level blacks.
    , @Anonym
    This must be common in the South. I heard that expression of differentiation when I was there too. Unfortunately I was too PC at the time to want to delve further into the crimethink but from memory I think that must have been the gist of what was said.
    , @Jim Don Bob
    Liberals have no problem calling the white underclass "white trash" but the n word sends them straight to the fainting couch. The farmer is right.
    , @WolverineJesus
    For noticing the exact same thing, Chris Rock drew huge audiences (and checks) instead of gasps.
  54. IA says:
    @Ed
    The black underclass is highly disordered & dysfunctional left to their own devices it's literally the law of the jungle. Actually it's worse because even primitive African cultures have basic rules.

    So you either have a stern policing force, Jim Crow like social conditions or you have chaos.

    Last year Dave Weigel quoted an Alabama farmer before Trump's big rally there.

    ...

    Of course this generated the requisite gasps from liberals but it was a very astute comment. This farmer has had far more exposure to blacks then the vast majority of liberals. He could see that some were trash & others not so much. Liberals don't acknowledge such distinctions or in Isteve parlance don't notice. Not noticing is bad for society & the future.

    I’d say Obama has done far more damage to western civilization compared to low level blacks.

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    • Replies: @David In TN
    "I'd say Obama has done far more damage to western civilization compared to low level blacks."

    Liberals sometimes say white collar criminals "hurt more people" than black street criminals who brutally murder white people.
  55. @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    We as a country are allowing millions of immigrates to take a huge portion of our country’s low-skill jobs. Our economically most displaced native citizens are our young Black men.

    In the Ferguson case, Michael Brown was permanently unemployed. Only 18, he already had made himself uneducable and unemployable by smoking marijuana all day every day.

    Brown robbed a store that employed only Pakistani immigrants. A few days later, mobs of local Blacks burned down several beauty stores that employed only Korean immigrants.

    If we as a country continue to import millions of low-skill foreigners, our Black men will continue to suffer very high unemployment.

    (This is my second response to your comment. I failed to link my first response to your comment, but you can find it in this thread.)

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    • Replies: @Cwhatfuture
    And yet African Americans continue to give 90+% of their votes to a party that wants to bring in more immigrants, so as to make getting a job even harder for African Americans. If Trump built his Wall he would do more for African Americans than 1000 Hillarys ever would, and yet all the media cares about - laughs about - is that Trump used the expression "the blacks". Those reporters might want to check how all those newly minted Democratic voters from Pakistan, Mexico and Korea refer to "the blacks".
    , @anon
    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?
  56. […] reality. Multikult psychology. Supply and Demand. Glorious Simian heritage. Status. Crime wave (Ferguson & Diversity effects). Republican intelligence. Beyond liberalism. #FeelTheMurder. Opposing […]

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  57. Anonym says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind, since he's going against the narrative and thus endangering future prospects for grants, employment, etc. He has some integrity and we see that less and less, especially at the highest level of government. I'm sure our first black president knows that a lot of the things he says about crime and policing are untrue, but he says them anyway. It would be great if he would take a break from chastising the police and mention that blacks should stop committing so much crime, should stop resisting arrest, and should stop bitching about the shooting of Michael Brown, who only got what was coming to him.

    Maybe he senses the narrative is going to change under president Trump and he is getting with the program?

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  58. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    If white guys were dying something wound be done.

    Did you read the article? They did do something when black people were killing each other in the crack epidemic. They did a bunch of things, and then black people started complaining about those things, which is why the police largely stopped.

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  59. TB2 says:
    @Priss Factor
    "Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America..."

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called 'rampage' or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It's like the term 'Jim Crow' sums up so much about US history.

    How about Holocaust? That pretty much sums up so much of the anti-white program that black violence is a part of.

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  60. Anonym says:
    @Ed
    The black underclass is highly disordered & dysfunctional left to their own devices it's literally the law of the jungle. Actually it's worse because even primitive African cultures have basic rules.

    So you either have a stern policing force, Jim Crow like social conditions or you have chaos.

    Last year Dave Weigel quoted an Alabama farmer before Trump's big rally there.

    ...

    Of course this generated the requisite gasps from liberals but it was a very astute comment. This farmer has had far more exposure to blacks then the vast majority of liberals. He could see that some were trash & others not so much. Liberals don't acknowledge such distinctions or in Isteve parlance don't notice. Not noticing is bad for society & the future.

    This must be common in the South. I heard that expression of differentiation when I was there too. Unfortunately I was too PC at the time to want to delve further into the crimethink but from memory I think that must have been the gist of what was said.

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  61. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism

    So are they policing black neighborhoods too aggressively or not aggressively enough? It’s kind of funny how you acknowledge that there’s really nothing the police could do that you would find acceptable.

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  62. anon says: • Disclaimer

    ‘All ten cities that saw a sudden increase in homicides had a large African-American population’.

    You mean that blacks cause a lot of crime and violence and murder? Say it ain’t so! I thought it was the Amish and the Buddhist monks who were causing all the trouble.

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  63. @Ed
    The black underclass is highly disordered & dysfunctional left to their own devices it's literally the law of the jungle. Actually it's worse because even primitive African cultures have basic rules.

    So you either have a stern policing force, Jim Crow like social conditions or you have chaos.

    Last year Dave Weigel quoted an Alabama farmer before Trump's big rally there.

    ...

    Of course this generated the requisite gasps from liberals but it was a very astute comment. This farmer has had far more exposure to blacks then the vast majority of liberals. He could see that some were trash & others not so much. Liberals don't acknowledge such distinctions or in Isteve parlance don't notice. Not noticing is bad for society & the future.

    Liberals have no problem calling the white underclass “white trash” but the n word sends them straight to the fainting couch. The farmer is right.

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  64. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    And why is all black Haiti such a total basket case? It has virtually zero whites.
    Why do blacks in Canada and England have the same high rates of violence and crime when there was no history of slavery or segregation in either country?

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    • Replies: @Perspective
    This is true, though African-Americans seem to have elevated crime levels relative to blacks in Canada and England.
  65. @Ed
    The black underclass is highly disordered & dysfunctional left to their own devices it's literally the law of the jungle. Actually it's worse because even primitive African cultures have basic rules.

    So you either have a stern policing force, Jim Crow like social conditions or you have chaos.

    Last year Dave Weigel quoted an Alabama farmer before Trump's big rally there.

    ...

    Of course this generated the requisite gasps from liberals but it was a very astute comment. This farmer has had far more exposure to blacks then the vast majority of liberals. He could see that some were trash & others not so much. Liberals don't acknowledge such distinctions or in Isteve parlance don't notice. Not noticing is bad for society & the future.

    For noticing the exact same thing, Chris Rock drew huge audiences (and checks) instead of gasps.

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    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "For noticing the exact same thing, Chris Rock drew huge audiences (and checks) instead of gasps."

    Chris Rock said he retired that bit. He no longer criticizes his own people in his stand up act.
  66. Yep says:
    @Steve Sailer
    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn't as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.

    Then why are we constantly told that the War on Drugs failed?

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  67. One positive outcome from a Trump Presidency, is that he is well positioned to chide blacks about racial violence rather than just moralizing and condemning them as most other white politicians would do. “Come on, what is wrong with you losers”, is probably much more effective than , “You poor little victims …”. Obama has been like a neglectful parent for black Americans. They are looking to him for leadership and he is playing golf.

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  68. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn't as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.

    and if the average age when they died was say 25 and the average age of their kids was say 5 and there was a genetic component then it would take c. 20 years for the kids to grow up to be just like dad.

    like rebellions in history books with a 20-25 year cycle

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  69. “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,”

    Well, I wouldn’t call them “men.” Goons, perhaps; but not men.

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  70. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @countenance
    The Ferguson Effect is far more valid in the arena of the black undertow being agitated than it is in the level of law enforcement. What it means is that more cops and more enforcement won't solve much, what it will take is for the natives to get restful. Or at the very least, for the (((media))) not to amp them up.

    Crime rates did increase in St. Louis even before August 9, 2014, and it went up in 2013. But that does not disprove the Ferguson Effect, in fact, it proves it. It's just that it shows that the Ferguson Effect deserves a different name. The reason for the increases in 2013 and 2014 had to do with another late teens young black man who was news about that time, and he's suddenly news again: Trayvon Martin. The media whipped up Trayvonmania to help re-elect Obama, and that happened, and a combination of both leading into the start of 2013 was a cue to the undertow that they could start raging out. Trayvon's father, incidentally, is a native of East St. Louis.

    I think you may be right: a stirring effect first eventually leading to a police backing off effect.

    It’s amazing how many people the media can kill without firing a shot themselves.

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  71. The real problem with this study is that a “criminologist” is running the analyses.

    I read the original paper, he had some wonky statistical model in which you could substitute any other event that happened on the same day of that thug’s death in Ferguson and blame that for the increase in crime. Rosenfeld’s CV is right here: https://www.umsl.edu/ccj/pdfs/vitae/rosenfeldvitae.pdf

    He got his Ph.D in Sociology back in 1984, I guarantee you his grasp of statistical mechanics is rudimentary at best. He’s got no clue what he’s talking about. Granted, proving causation is extremely difficult with this type of phenomenon, given the amount of intervening variables, but it’s definitely possible.

    The detrimental effects of the rise of the so-called BLM movement and the “Ferguson effect” are, thankfully, an empirical matter. We just need to wait for a competent economist to analyze the data, shove the proof in liberals’ faces, and watch as they cry and moan while they retreat to their “safe spaces.” Facts are anathema to the SJW wing of Democrats, afterall.

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  72. Lurker says:
    @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    Correct. Black people need to be protected from the pernicious effects of white racism. They should have their own police, courts, prisons, schools etc. They should have their own territory free of white people. In fact they already have that. Its called Africa.

    Now, please explain what the is problem with separation in light of your black victimhood narrative. Thank you.

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  73. A FiveThirtyEight assessment of Chicago crime data concluded that the city’s increase in gun violence was statistically significant

    The phrase “gun violence” always be preceded with the term “african-american.”

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  74. @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    White British Colonialism, of course.

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    • Replies: @Expletive Deleted

    White British Colonialism, of course.
     
    Well up to a point. I suspect it's the cricket+sunshine-poisoning.
    Case in point:
    Canada: no sunshine, no cricket=not violent
    Pakistan: the opposite
    New Zealand: no sunshine, but cricket=not violent
    South Africa; sunshine+cricket=the usual.

    Australia is just weird, like its animals.
  75. @Unit472
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    Many cricket-playing countries are extraordinarily violent.
    All part of the great Imperial legacy, along with rum, sodomy and the lash.

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  76. @E. Rekshun
    Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?

    White British Colonialism, of course.

    White British Colonialism, of course.

    Well up to a point. I suspect it’s the cricket+sunshine-poisoning.
    Case in point:
    Canada: no sunshine, no cricket=not violent
    Pakistan: the opposite
    New Zealand: no sunshine, but cricket=not violent
    South Africa; sunshine+cricket=the usual.

    Australia is just weird, like its animals.

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  77. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    "The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said. “It’s a complicated, hard issue, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. A whole lot of people are dying. I don’t want to drive around it"

    That's the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done. It's worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country. They will soon be a majority. I think it's time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it's not when you really think about it.

    ‘Old King Cole was a merry old soul, a merry old soul was he’.

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  78. dr kill says:
    @Chrisnonymous
    Didn't we already cover all this ground in another iSteve thread on a "debunking" research article? It was quite obvious from the data in that paper that the crime increases were in high-black-percentage cities.

    It took them a long time and a new study to catch up with iSteve readers.

    It’s about getting paid by us for another study, that’s all. Proggs are some study-loving motherfuckers, that’s for sure. Why work when you can study, hmmm?

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    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    Lawrence Auster once commented that if liberals/progressives were to write their own holy book, phrases like "And God said...." or "It is written that...." would be replaced with "Studies show....."
  79. No, No, No. There must be some Root Cause hiding there under all the dead bodies.

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  80. dr kill says:
    @iSteveFan

    I think it’s time to effectively bar white guys from law enforcement. It sounds unfair but it’s not when you really think about it.
     
    I think we ought to go one step further and just segregate the entire white population. Make them live in their own towns, attend their own schools and work at their own businesses.

    Yeah, that’ll teach’em. Make them live with only other white people. See how they like that. No asians, no blacks, no browns. Only white folks. None of that vibrant diversity that makes the rest of the USA so enjoyable and prosperous. Truly this punishment fits the crime.

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  81. @Mike Sylwester
    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    We as a country are allowing millions of immigrates to take a huge portion of our country's low-skill jobs. Our economically most displaced native citizens are our young Black men.

    In the Ferguson case, Michael Brown was permanently unemployed. Only 18, he already had made himself uneducable and unemployable by smoking marijuana all day every day.

    Brown robbed a store that employed only Pakistani immigrants. A few days later, mobs of local Blacks burned down several beauty stores that employed only Korean immigrants.

    If we as a country continue to import millions of low-skill foreigners, our Black men will continue to suffer very high unemployment.

    (This is my second response to your comment. I failed to link my first response to your comment, but you can find it in this thread.)

    And yet African Americans continue to give 90+% of their votes to a party that wants to bring in more immigrants, so as to make getting a job even harder for African Americans. If Trump built his Wall he would do more for African Americans than 1000 Hillarys ever would, and yet all the media cares about – laughs about – is that Trump used the expression “the blacks”. Those reporters might want to check how all those newly minted Democratic voters from Pakistan, Mexico and Korea refer to “the blacks”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    Do you expect great strategic thinking from those with a mean IQ of 85?
  82. AndrewR says:
    @IA

    Obama is trying hard to beat out Dubya as the worst president since the 1860s.
     
    Worse for who? All the blacks hired at the Federal level? Do you understand the concept of black racial nepotism?

    Worst for whom? For the US. And frankly I’m not sure history will show he’ll have done well by blacks. They need tough love.

    Read More
    • Replies: @IA
    What's the US? Spike Lee's anybody who votes for Trump is a racist? (Does dear ol' Spike need tough love from a racist? I don't think he'd appreciate it, somehow. He'd view you, quite rightly, as a patronizing bigot.)

    Or maybe Susan Sontag's the white race is a virus that has polluted the world. Or maybe Pussy Riot, or the unlimited personal freedom of driving bakers out of business. What US are you referring too? I'm genuinely curious.
  83. Mr. Anon says:
    @TangoMan
    The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”

    Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.

    With liberals, the model has to be twisted to meet the narrative. Here it's economic deterioration and in an earlier study gun ownership rates where a key factor behind homicide. The narrative must be protected.

    Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:


    The largest study of gun violence in the United States, released Thursday afternoon, confirms a point that should be obvious: widespread American gun ownership is fueling America’s gun violence epidemic.

    The study, by Professor Michael Siegel at Boston University and two coauthors, has been peer-reviewed and is forthcoming in the American Journal of Public Health. Siegel and his colleagues compiled data on firearm homicides from all 50 states from 1981-2010, the longest stretch of time ever studied in this fashion, and set about seeing whether they could find any relationship between changes in gun ownership and murder using guns over time.
     

    Here's the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.

    So back to the question at hand. What might be the demographic effects on a city arising from a falling population? Might that increase the proportion of the black population? Or are blacks the first to flee thus leaving whites in the city and increasing the proportion of white? Look at the influence of income inequality from the Seigel study and compare to the influence of the percent of city which is black. The Brennan Center turns its focus on "economic deterioration" but I'm not sure how they instrumentalize that variable. A good proxy would be an increasing gini index measure but this is nowhere near as powerful as race, especially when we measure in terms of Standard Deviation and thus capture the effect of concentration of black social dysfunction.

    The "Ferguson Effect" is going to have a greater impact in cities with high black concentrations than in cities with low black representation, so police in two cities with different demographics, acting on the same reluctance to be the next star of a viral video are going to end up with different effect size outcomes in terms of homicides. High concentrations of blacks need a stronger hand to keep them in line and this pays off, as pre-Ferguson homicide rates indicate.

    The social factor conditions listed in the quote create almost a perfect storm for changing the demographics of a city towards one where black concentrations are going to be the factor which explodes the homicide rate and it is precisely these conditions which require a heavy handed police presence to keep a lid on things.

    A good test for the question of whether economic deterioration is the key factor behind the rise in homicides is to find white communities which have suffered the same degree of economic deterioration as these cities which have experienced a rise in post-Ferguson homicides and see if there has been a commensurate rise in their homicide rate for it seems the police all across the nation are pulling back due to the scape-goating which is being focused on them.

    “Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:”

    Also unstated by them is the fact that gun ownership itself might be correlated with how heavily black an area is. People who live in dangerous places might be inclined to buy a gun for self-defense.

    Read More
  84. TWS says:
    @Sean the Neon Caucasian
    Well, right or wrong, ethically,, access to legal abortion helped the decrease, too. The welfare state didn't have as many Afros in it, either, so that combined with blacks doing genocide on their own ethnicity kept a lot of potential thugs out of circulation. Gee, who would've thought paying unproductive people to have kids would lead to....unproductive people having kids?

    Steve’s already done the math showing this is entirely false. Murdering children before they are born does not reduce crime.

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  85. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @Jim
    The US Virgin Islands has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. High rates of violence are common in Sub-Saharan African descended populations all over the world. In contrast consider Chinese populations in places like Indonesia where the Chinese populations have been subject to often horrific persecution. Nevertheless the Chinese populations of Indonesia have low levels of violence.

    Those damn Chinese are just so racist for continually striving to make other races look bad!

    Why, just recently, I heard that they only took two years to execute a criminal who killed another Chinese person.

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  86. Mr. Anon says:

    Is the Ferguson Effect necessarily that bad? So there is an increase in “youths” getting murdered in the hood. Maybe most of those guys were bad news anyway. Has anyone considered the possibility that the decrease in violent crime starting in the mid nineties was due to the worst of the thuglife crowd having mostly killed each other off?

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  87. Lot says:
    @Priss Factor
    "Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America..."

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called 'rampage' or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It's like the term 'Jim Crow' sums up so much about US history.

    “Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America…”

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    I would call it “The Gideon/Miranda Crime Wave,” named after the two Supreme Court cases that required states to read criminals their rights and provide them with a free attorney. From Wikipedia:

    About 2000 individuals that had been convicted were freed in Florida alone as a result of the Gideon decision. The decision did not directly result in Gideon being freed; instead, he received a new trial with the appointment of defense counsel at the government’s expense.

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  88. Mr. Anon says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind, since he's going against the narrative and thus endangering future prospects for grants, employment, etc. He has some integrity and we see that less and less, especially at the highest level of government. I'm sure our first black president knows that a lot of the things he says about crime and policing are untrue, but he says them anyway. It would be great if he would take a break from chastising the police and mention that blacks should stop committing so much crime, should stop resisting arrest, and should stop bitching about the shooting of Michael Brown, who only got what was coming to him.

    “I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind,….”

    If you hire enough sociologists, you’re bound to find an honest one once in a while.

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  89. Priss Factor [AKA "Polly Perkins"] says:
    @Almost Missouri
    I think Steve covered this not too long ago, and his term was "victory riot".

    The ongoing post-"civil rights" crime wave might be history's longest victory riot.

    (If you exclude the Moslem conquests.)

    ‘Victory riot’ sounds like a momentary thing.

    What we have is ongoing violence. Maybe it should be called Mayhem.

    How about era of Willie Horton? Or Winston Moseley?

    Jim Crow vs Willie Horton.

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  90. Mr. Anon says:

    Heroin addiction must really select for the uniquely stupid and/or self-destructive. After thirty years of the fact being publicized of just how bad it is to use an unsterile hypodermic needle, what would make somebody think – yeah, I’m going to jab a needle I found lying around somewhere into my arm.

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  91. Mr. Anon says:
    @dr kill
    It's about getting paid by us for another study, that's all. Proggs are some study-loving motherfuckers, that's for sure. Why work when you can study, hmmm?

    Lawrence Auster once commented that if liberals/progressives were to write their own holy book, phrases like “And God said….” or “It is written that….” would be replaced with “Studies show…..”

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  92. benjaminl says:

    OT:

    http://www.grubstreet.com/2016/05/eddie-huang-nick-solares-food-culture.html

    headline:
    “The Oppressive Whiteness of the Food World / New York’s food culture has some intolerant values.”

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  93. SFG says:
    @The most deplorable one

    Conservative writer Heather Mac Donald warned in May 2015 that protests over police behavior would only backfire on black citizens.
     
    Shouldn't that be blackfire?

    It didn’t say ‘alt-right writer Heather MacDonald’.

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  94. SFG says:
    @Rich
    Or, since "people of color" are the ones doing the killing, bar them from owning or carrying firearms or knives and subject them to random searches as well as deportation of all illegal aliens. That might sound fair and it is if you really think about it.

    That was stop-and-frisk, more or less (minus the deportation bit). It turned Manhattan into a ‘high-end product’, as Bloomberg put it.

    Read More
  95. Lot says:

    The current crime wave may also be the result of anti-prison agitation by the left and budget cuts to prisons when state revenues tanked in 2008-2011.

    Read More
  96. @anonymous-antimarxist
    STEVE YOU ARE MISSING THE BIG PICTURE AND THE META ANALYSIS!!!!

    The "Ferguson" effect on black crime rates is not the real story here. The supposed "Liberal" analysis was just a smokescreen to give the "BLM" movement enough time to develop under the guise of some degree of either credibility or more likely to disguise its clearly harmful effects. The purpose of the entire "BLM" movement is simply the its own creation in and of itself as a way of building another far left organization that will provide employment for and funnel funds to a core of far left and racial activists.

    Gee, how convenient is it that now in every city where there is a BLM infrastructure, George Soros can in a matter of minutes have a gang of thugs on the street to attempt disrupt any opposing political rally or movement he chooses.

    This is tradition of a long line of "trial of the century" sensations and sometimes outright hoaxes like Ferguson and Trayvon which primarily existed as means of building the institutional left and/or cementing Jewish ethnocentric organizations.


    1913 Leo Frank .......ADL
    1920s Sacco and Vanzetti.......ACLU(with help from B'nai B'rith) &American Communist Party
    1930s Scottsboro Boys ....... NAACP & Communist Party
    1950s The Rosenbergs ....... Communist Party
    1950s Emmett Till ...... Radical Sixties Civil Rights movements
    1960s La Raza/Black Panthers
    1970s SPLC
    1980s Open Borders Movement
    The list goes on and on.

    It is how the left works.

    Whenever someones says “The list goes on and on”, that means the list ends right there.

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  97. Jefferson says:
    @Arclight
    In other news, let's catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom.

    “In other news, let’s catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom.”

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.

    Read More
    • Replies: @candid_observer

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.
     
    That's a nice bunch of comics you got there, Marvel. Wouldn't want anything racist to happen in it, ya know?
    , @Ed
    The money is probably mostly from books sales. His book is now assigned reading in sociology, AA studies etc classes at colleges across the country

    It's on the book shelves of countless liberals in NYC, DC & other haunts. Coates made a comment of seeing someone in Paris with his book. He'll be eating from this book until he dies.
  98. @The most deplorable one
    Tiny D*ck said:

    It’s worrisome because People of Cole are the future if the country.
     
    Would that be Nat King Cole?

    Perhaps you were trying to say: People of Choler.

    Perhaps he meant “coal”.

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  99. Lot says:

    OT: I voted by mail for Ron Unz today, plus for a local minimum wage and paid time off initiate. It will likely pass, moving San Diego to $10.50 an hour right away and $11.50 next year.

    At this point the law probably will not have a lot of effect outside of retail and fast food, the economy is booming now, unemployment is below 5%, and unskilled wages are rising. I already pay my maid and gardener $15 an hour. They are born in the USA Mex-Ams and I send them 1099s, but from talking with people who have illegals doing the same work, they pay them about the same.

    Looks like the County board of supervisors may remain all white despite the fact we are now a minority:

    http://www.sandiegocounty.gov/general/bos.html

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (48.5%)
    Hispanic or Latino (32.0%)
    Asian alone (10.6%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (4.7%)
    Two or more races (3.1%)
    American Indian and Alaska Native alone (0.5%)

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  100. Lurker says:
    @Yak-15
    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals? I am fine with the murder rate being very high in black areas so long as they stay out of my area. If they do not want the dwindling police resources in my city to stop them from murdering each other, I see no problem with that. I just wish we would airdrop birth control and set up more Planned Parenthood clinics. And this brings me to my favorite argument with progressive types.

    I invariably get into the HBD theories and how African Americans on average have lower IQs, higher propensity for crime, lower time preference, etc. At some point a few of the people I argue with have came back at me with something to this affect: "So what if you are correct and all these things about blacks are true? What do you suggest we do about it? What is your solution?"

    To that I replied "Nothing. There is nothing we as a society can do to change these genetic realities short of eugenics. However, on a personal level, you already build every aspect of your lives as if you believe these facts. You went to high end colleges with few blacks. You work in a company almost completely devoid of blacks. You spend enormous amounts of money to live in areas away from African Americans. Similarly, you will never send your kids to school with many African Americans. And lastly, you chronically avoid African American areas after dark or in contexts that would make you unsafe.

    Essentially your lives are lived exclusively away from blacks. This is due to innate differences in intellectual capabilities and out of fear for your safety. That is reality you have chosen and your actions prove you believe what I say whether you want to admit it or not."

    Awesome!

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  101. @Paul Rise
    Heroin and porous borders have been around a long time. A more recent development that tracks well with the crime rise is legal marijuana flooding markets from Colorado and Washington. It's having a disruptive effect on established operations. Consider whatever happened to that family in Ohio.

    A more recent development that tracks well with the crime rise is legal marijuana flooding markets from Colorado and Washington.

    Good Point!!!

    Lots of too high THC content pot rejected by legal marijuana market is simply being dumped on the street.

    Combine high THC pot with DXM based over the counter cough syrup and you what is known as “Robotripping”. Robotripping is the poor man’s PCP and is known to cause psychosis.

    Both Trayvon and Michael Brown’s buddies were known Robotrippers.

    Skittles + Watermelon Juice + DXM syrup is a popular Robotripping formula.

    Chronic DXM abuse causes brain damage and severe gastrointestinal distress. Like his favorite Robotripping promoting rapper Lil Wayne, Trayvon suffered from gas and diarrhea.

    Autopsies still rarely test for DXM levels since it is a very popular over the counter drug.

    However in many third world countries DXM is regulated and no longer available without prescription precisely due to abuse linked to violence.

    Most of the increase in recent ghetto violence is due to “TNB” combined with the “Ferguson” effect.

    But “Robotripping” is definitely a factor.

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  102. Jefferson says:
    @WolverineJesus
    For noticing the exact same thing, Chris Rock drew huge audiences (and checks) instead of gasps.

    “For noticing the exact same thing, Chris Rock drew huge audiences (and checks) instead of gasps.”

    Chris Rock said he retired that bit. He no longer criticizes his own people in his stand up act.

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  103. O.T.: Why no Trumpite commentary on Sheldon Adelson. He’s Trump’s new owner.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SFG
    They'd have to admit their boy is Zionist-owned now.

    I kind of wonder what Adelson is thinking. He's not going to win. Maybe he wants to keep Israel safe by buying off Trump.
  104. Lot says:

    Whites are 3/5 of the LA County Supervisors despite being 28% of the county population. There is one black and one hispanic. Here is the county’s ethnic breakdown:

    Hispanic or Latino (47.7%)
    White Non-Hispanic Alone (27.8%)
    Asian alone (13.5%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (8.3%)
    Two or more races (2.0%)

    Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)

    Alameda County, containing Oakland, Berkeley, and many suburban areas, has 2 whites, 2 blacks, and 1 Asian on their Board of Supervisors:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (34.1%)
    Asian alone (25.9%)
    Hispanic or Latino (22.5%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (12.2%)
    Two or more races (4.0%)
    Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone (0.8%)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)"

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority? Do Whites in Orange County vote in a racial bloc just like Whites in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, etc?
  105. athEIst says:
    @dumpstersquirrel
    "We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men."

    Translation: Aybah poda hep! Which is ebonics for: Everybody is supposed to help...... by giving me free shit from cradle to grave.

    Aybah poda hep!
    LOL
    +1 even if it was shooting fish in a barrel.

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  106. @Anonymous
    There is a false narrative about black on black crime being linked with poor family values.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    The majority of police officers are racists who refuse to police black communities allowing a small minority of black criminals to go around murdering innocent blacks.

    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    This is what black lives matters is about, fighting for police to start policing black communities without racism, fighting for equal opportunity for men of color.

    The primary cause of white police officers killing unarmed black men and the epidemic of black on black murder is racism and neglect by white racists.

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.

    These blacks, at least outside the South, tend to live in cities where the whites are Democrats. So why won’t these white Democrats hire them either?

    Hell, why won’t even the Southern Poverty Law Center hire them?

    And whites will hire blacks… when Mexicans are unavailable. Check out who changes your sheets at the Motel 6 in low-immigration cities like Grand Rapids.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "And whites will hire blacks… when Mexicans are unavailable. Check out who changes your sheets at the Motel 6 in low-immigration cities like Grand Rapids."

    When I stayed at the Hard Rock Hotel in Orlando, the woman who changed my sheets was both Black and Hispanic, as I overheard her speaking Spanish with her co-workers.

    Puerto Ricans are the largest Hispanic group in Orlando, not Mexicans. So she was probably Puerto Rican.
  107. SFG says:
    @Stephen R. Diamond
    O.T.: Why no Trumpite commentary on Sheldon Adelson. He's Trump's new owner.

    They’d have to admit their boy is Zionist-owned now.

    I kind of wonder what Adelson is thinking. He’s not going to win. Maybe he wants to keep Israel safe by buying off Trump.

    Read More
  108. Jefferson says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Black on black crime is high because black men are excluded from the job market due to white racism, thus they are forced to turn to crime to support themselves.
     
    These blacks, at least outside the South, tend to live in cities where the whites are Democrats. So why won't these white Democrats hire them either?

    Hell, why won't even the Southern Poverty Law Center hire them?

    And whites will hire blacks... when Mexicans are unavailable. Check out who changes your sheets at the Motel 6 in low-immigration cities like Grand Rapids.

    “And whites will hire blacks… when Mexicans are unavailable. Check out who changes your sheets at the Motel 6 in low-immigration cities like Grand Rapids.”

    When I stayed at the Hard Rock Hotel in Orlando, the woman who changed my sheets was both Black and Hispanic, as I overheard her speaking Spanish with her co-workers.

    Puerto Ricans are the largest Hispanic group in Orlando, not Mexicans. So she was probably Puerto Rican.

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  109. TangoMan says:
    @415 reasons
    Tables 2 and 3 are truly an exercise in absurdity. The confidence interval for gun ownership is just a smidge above 1, and the effect of percent black is literally about four times as strong. And yet, they then sort by p value and then bin all p values lower than .001, just so they can put gun ownership above race in the table!.

    I guess they missed the day they taught about scientific notation. And the day about counting numbers from lowest to highest.

    The only thing more absurd than this way of presenting the data is the rest of the paper. They literally found an explanation in their same data set with over four times as much explanatory power, and gun ownership barely rises above statistical noise, but the narrative decides that the title of the paper should be about gun ownership. Insane.

    The technical term for this strategy is “Squid Ink.” It gives the risk-averse researcher cover from the career-destroying mobs.

    I’m not so worked up by the misdirection because the data is included and the data tells the tale.

    The press though has more latitude and can tell the truth and not suffer career destroying witch hunts. They, after all , shape the culture.

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  110. Phelps says:

    If it took at least a year for The Guardian to admit the reality of the Ferguson Effect, how long do you think it would take Vox?

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  111. The Brennan Center and its partisans are simply doing Bayesian statistics, and they come to the “Ferguson Effect” issue with strong priors — possibly the first case of the Dirac Delta Function being used as a Bayesian prior!

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  112. Fun says:
    @Alec Leamas

    That’s the problem right there. If white guys were dying something wound be done.

     

    I know you're being facetious but they're really on the horns of a dilemma: a) accept aggressive policing that will make life safer for the vast majority of blacks and save measurable young black lives, while accepting that from time to time a black - usually in the commission of a felony - will be killed by (probably white) police; or, b) persist in exposing police to infamy for properly doing their jobs. The Shaun King best of both worlds solution is unobtainable because he wants to roast police for doing their jobs when there is a bad outcome arising from black criminality. White cops (or cops of any race for that matter) offering their lives up for the sake of racial harmony in deadly conflicts with violent black criminals is probably not in the cards either.

    The reality is that the toothpaste can't be put back in the tube at this point because the BLM agitation and crucifixion of good cops doing their jobs is coming from the Eye of Soros, and it will not abate regardless of whether it is responsible for the deaths of black men because it is politically useful.

    The ‘just doing their jobs’ line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent, the overzealous police response resulted in unnecessary deaths, and consequences were nil. These weren’t good cops valiantly protecting us from criminals. They were shit cops, acting like dumb meatheads, and people lost their lives because of that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    You couldn't differentiate between the fake gun Rice was pointing at people, and Garner was a fat recidivist felon resisting arrest.

    In other words tell me more about how bad the jocks in HS beat you up.
    , @anon

    The ‘just doing their jobs’ line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent
     
    There are two definitions of "their job."

    The filthy lying media version which excludes all the casual insanity and adult toddler violence among the underclass and the true version which includes it.

    If you don't want cops who are too hyped up (which i agree they are) then get the filthy lying media to tell the truth and then something could be done to make the psycho areas those cops work in less psycho.
  113. Grumpy says:

    It’s not just violent crime that’s rising.

    California Ballot Measure Blamed for Shoplifting Jump

    “It’s just pretty much open season,” Lutz said. “They’ll pick the $800 unit and just grab it and run out the door.”

    Anything below $950 keeps the crime a misdemeanor — and likely means the thieves face no pursuit and no punishment, say retailers and law enforcement officials. Large retailers including Safeway, Target, Rite Aid and CVS pharmacies say shoplifting increased at least 15 percent, and in some cases, doubled since voters approved Proposition 47 and ended the possibility of charging shoplifting as a felony with the potential for a prison sentence.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/california-ballot-measure-blamed-shoplifting-jump-39115364

    Read More
    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    A friend works at Old Navy and says pretty much what this article says. Thieves make a move on her store every freaking day. Jump and run, hide it in the bag, pull it off the rack and say you're returning something without a receipt, conceal it in the bottom of a stroller. The employees are not allowed to confront and the cops are called constantly.

    I just went to a neighborhood meeting about some local crap and I have to say I feel sorry for the officers. They have to deal with the same criminals and bad actors over and over again. Then, the homeowners are bitching at them to get rid of these people. Really they're caught in a vice squeeze by the liberals in charge and the citizens who want good neighborhoods.

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts? I don't mean the old folks entitlements. I mean the food stamps, medicaid, cheap housing, WIC, EITC, and such. I understand why people want free stuff, but I don't get why they want criminals roaming around and crappy neighborhoods. Maybe they're the same group of people.
  114. Jefferson says:
    @Lot
    Whites are 3/5 of the LA County Supervisors despite being 28% of the county population. There is one black and one hispanic. Here is the county's ethnic breakdown:


    Hispanic or Latino (47.7%)
    White Non-Hispanic Alone (27.8%)
    Asian alone (13.5%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (8.3%)
    Two or more races (2.0%)


    Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:


    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)


    Alameda County, containing Oakland, Berkeley, and many suburban areas, has 2 whites, 2 blacks, and 1 Asian on their Board of Supervisors:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (34.1%)
    Asian alone (25.9%)
    Hispanic or Latino (22.5%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (12.2%)
    Two or more races (4.0%)
    Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone (0.8%)

    “Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)”

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority? Do Whites in Orange County vote in a racial bloc just like Whites in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, etc?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority?
     
    It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold. Half the hispanics are not citizens and the half that are citizens are too young to vote or not registered or not interested.

    Asians vote at very low rates too, and when they do OC Asians are fairly Republican since they assimilate toward the local elite, which in OC is white Republican. A pretty high percentage of OC Asians are Christians from Vietnam, Korea, or Philippines.

    You combine all these factors and OC's 44% white population are probably 75% of actual voters, or even 80% in off-elections.

    For local offices, suburban so-cal whites block vote for Republicans when the dems nominate a non-white. Most of the white out-migration has been in the bottom half of the economic spectrum, and partially replaced with well educated whites. So you end up with a white core that votes in very high numbers. I am a permanent vote by mail voter so I never miss an election.
    , @Lot
    A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic.
  115. @BenKenobi
    Steve, you gotta figure out how to invoice these bien pensant media people.

    Just as Trump's gonna make Mexico pay for the wall, you can make the NYT pay for your insight!

    (yes I know this Beckett character doesn't write for the NYT)

    OT obligatory heteronormative chauvinism: a quick google image shows us that young Lois is a not-ugly redhead. I would. Rebuttals?

    OT reactive heteronormative prejudice:

    Yeah, but redheads make risky LTRs.

    Read More
  116. @Fun
    The 'just doing their jobs' line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent, the overzealous police response resulted in unnecessary deaths, and consequences were nil. These weren't good cops valiantly protecting us from criminals. They were shit cops, acting like dumb meatheads, and people lost their lives because of that.

    You couldn’t differentiate between the fake gun Rice was pointing at people, and Garner was a fat recidivist felon resisting arrest.

    In other words tell me more about how bad the jocks in HS beat you up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Fun
    And neither of them should have died. Do you get it now?
  117. @Jefferson
    "In other news, let’s catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom."

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.

    That’s a nice bunch of comics you got there, Marvel. Wouldn’t want anything racist to happen in it, ya know?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tex
    Marvel's comics are increasingly SJW-controlled. Bankrolling Coates pretty much clarifies what they are all about now.
  118. IA says:
    @AndrewR
    Worst for whom? For the US. And frankly I'm not sure history will show he'll have done well by blacks. They need tough love.

    What’s the US? Spike Lee’s anybody who votes for Trump is a racist? (Does dear ol’ Spike need tough love from a racist? I don’t think he’d appreciate it, somehow. He’d view you, quite rightly, as a patronizing bigot.)

    Or maybe Susan Sontag’s the white race is a virus that has polluted the world. Or maybe Pussy Riot, or the unlimited personal freedom of driving bakers out of business. What US are you referring too? I’m genuinely curious.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AndrewR
    You're just a nasty little troll ain't ya?

    Buh bye
  119. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @27 year old
    Why should White cops risk their lives (and their families' lives in the event of a media shitstorm) to prevent black criminals from killing other black criminals?

    See the same thing in prison where guards are often reluctant to interfere in fights among the convicts. Why risk your life, make your kids fatherless, and your wife a widow to get in the middle of a knife fight between Jamal and Jerome?

    Read More
  120. Jefferson says:

    A thug rapper in prison named Prince Dracula claims he is Prince’s biological son. His prison sentence ends in 2020.

    http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/prisoner-princes-son-only-heir-to-300-million-estate/

    If a paternity test proves this Dindu Nuffin is Prince’s biological son, it certainly adds fuel to the theory that the vast majority of affluent Blacks have family members who are part of the Black underclass, just like in The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air. Even Hussein Obama has family members who are part of the Black underclass.

    Not too many affluent Blacks come from 100 percent blue blood wealthy families.

    On the flip side most affluent Whites do not have family members who are part of the White underclass. Not as many Fresh Prince Of Bel Air cases among affluent Whites.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    'His sentence ends in 2020".

    Since the 57 year old Prince didn't have the prudence, thoughtfulness, responsibility or foresight to even make out a will for his enormous fortune he will still have plenty of time to make his claim.
  121. @IA
    I'd say Obama has done far more damage to western civilization compared to low level blacks.

    “I’d say Obama has done far more damage to western civilization compared to low level blacks.”

    Liberals sometimes say white collar criminals “hurt more people” than black street criminals who brutally murder white people.

    Read More
  122. Ed says:
    @Jefferson
    "In other news, let’s catch up with Genius T Coates: http://heatst.com/culture-wars/poverty-expert-ta-nehisi-coates-bails-on-newly-purchased-2-1-million-home-after-media-attention/?mod=sm_tw_post

    I already loved Jason Whitlock, but even more so with his tweet at the bottom."

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.

    The money is probably mostly from books sales. His book is now assigned reading in sociology, AA studies etc classes at colleges across the country

    It’s on the book shelves of countless liberals in NYC, DC & other haunts. Coates made a comment of seeing someone in Paris with his book. He’ll be eating from this book until he dies.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Arclight
    Exactly. I also found his worries about drop by fans amusing. Even he doesn't want a bunch of g0odwhites intruding on his daily existence, although my feeling is that if you monetize your notoriety you don't get a pass on the ugly/inconvenient side of it either.
  123. Anonym says:
    @Cwhatfuture
    And yet African Americans continue to give 90+% of their votes to a party that wants to bring in more immigrants, so as to make getting a job even harder for African Americans. If Trump built his Wall he would do more for African Americans than 1000 Hillarys ever would, and yet all the media cares about - laughs about - is that Trump used the expression "the blacks". Those reporters might want to check how all those newly minted Democratic voters from Pakistan, Mexico and Korea refer to "the blacks".

    Do you expect great strategic thinking from those with a mean IQ of 85?

    Read More
    • Replies: @V Vega

    Do you expect great strategic thinking from those with a mean IQ of 85?
     
    I would expect savage "Lord of the Flies" stuff like this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztIO5bnqKT0

    Normally one would attribute behavior such as that example as being related to a pathology. That is, something that has gone horribly wrong with their brain physiology.

    With too many black people, it's just bad long-term decision making. Because they have the collective IQ, and emotional intelligence of a mean-spirited 13 year old.
  124. Jefferson says:

    George Clooney stars in Money Monster, an anti-Wall Street film.

    The irony is that George Clooney is among Hildabeast’s biggest supporters, even though she is Wall Street’s biggest hoe.

    Donald Trump is more unpopular on Wall Street than he is among African Americans and Hispanics. The Donald will probably win less than 1 percent of the Wall Street vote in the general election. Wall Street will vote in a damn near 100 percent monolithic bloc for Hildabeast.

    Read More
  125. Lot says:
    @Jefferson
    "Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)"

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority? Do Whites in Orange County vote in a racial bloc just like Whites in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, etc?

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority?

    It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold. Half the hispanics are not citizens and the half that are citizens are too young to vote or not registered or not interested.

    Asians vote at very low rates too, and when they do OC Asians are fairly Republican since they assimilate toward the local elite, which in OC is white Republican. A pretty high percentage of OC Asians are Christians from Vietnam, Korea, or Philippines.

    You combine all these factors and OC’s 44% white population are probably 75% of actual voters, or even 80% in off-elections.

    For local offices, suburban so-cal whites block vote for Republicans when the dems nominate a non-white. Most of the white out-migration has been in the bottom half of the economic spectrum, and partially replaced with well educated whites. So you end up with a white core that votes in very high numbers. I am a permanent vote by mail voter so I never miss an election.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold."

    Hussein Obama lost Orange County in 2012 to the boring uncharismatic Mormon guy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_California,_2012#By_county
  126. Illustrious gatekeepers of our reigning narrative – those socially pure, spiritually corrosive lies we’re supposed to pretend to believe – take another hit. Media and academia really needed a winner here, and – POWEE! They certainly, certainly could have used a good, old fashioned See, Conservatives Really ARE Nazis study this year of all others. Now… Another Righteous Spin fail. One more denial dependent on us covering our ears and singing la-la and the whole, shabby empire of certitude will crumble to dust, be eaten by oceans.

    Read More
  127. Lot says:
    @Jefferson
    "Orange County has 2 whites and 3 asians, two of them women with white last names from their husbands. The breakdown in OC:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (44.1%)
    Hispanic or Latino (33.7%)
    Asian alone (17.7%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (1.5%)"

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority? Do Whites in Orange County vote in a racial bloc just like Whites in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, etc?

    A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic."

    Can you imagine if an American city was 32 percent White and it had a city council that was 100 percent White. Hussein Obama would cut off government money to that city until their council became vibrantly diverse.
  128. @anon
    And why is all black Haiti such a total basket case? It has virtually zero whites.
    Why do blacks in Canada and England have the same high rates of violence and crime when there was no history of slavery or segregation in either country?

    This is true, though African-Americans seem to have elevated crime levels relative to blacks in Canada and England.

    Read More
  129. Jefferson says:
    @Lot

    How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority?
     
    It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold. Half the hispanics are not citizens and the half that are citizens are too young to vote or not registered or not interested.

    Asians vote at very low rates too, and when they do OC Asians are fairly Republican since they assimilate toward the local elite, which in OC is white Republican. A pretty high percentage of OC Asians are Christians from Vietnam, Korea, or Philippines.

    You combine all these factors and OC's 44% white population are probably 75% of actual voters, or even 80% in off-elections.

    For local offices, suburban so-cal whites block vote for Republicans when the dems nominate a non-white. Most of the white out-migration has been in the bottom half of the economic spectrum, and partially replaced with well educated whites. So you end up with a white core that votes in very high numbers. I am a permanent vote by mail voter so I never miss an election.

    “It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold.”

    Hussein Obama lost Orange County in 2012 to the boring uncharismatic Mormon guy.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_California,_2012#By_county

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot
    Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president.
  130. Arclight says:
    @Ed
    The money is probably mostly from books sales. His book is now assigned reading in sociology, AA studies etc classes at colleges across the country

    It's on the book shelves of countless liberals in NYC, DC & other haunts. Coates made a comment of seeing someone in Paris with his book. He'll be eating from this book until he dies.

    Exactly. I also found his worries about drop by fans amusing. Even he doesn’t want a bunch of g0odwhites intruding on his daily existence, although my feeling is that if you monetize your notoriety you don’t get a pass on the ugly/inconvenient side of it either.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I go out of my way to not reveal where public figures live precisely. For example, I rewrote a posting about news stories about Carlos Slim putting his New York mansion up for sale for $80 million to reveal only that it was in Manhattan, even though it's one of the most prominent addresses in America.

    My thinking on this goes back to John Lennon's assumption that it was safe in the late 1970s to mention in interviews that he lived in The Dakota.

  131. Jefferson says:
    @Lot
    A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic.

    “A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic.”

    Can you imagine if an American city was 32 percent White and it had a city council that was 100 percent White. Hussein Obama would cut off government money to that city until their council became vibrantly diverse.

    Read More
  132. AndrewR says:
    @IA
    What's the US? Spike Lee's anybody who votes for Trump is a racist? (Does dear ol' Spike need tough love from a racist? I don't think he'd appreciate it, somehow. He'd view you, quite rightly, as a patronizing bigot.)

    Or maybe Susan Sontag's the white race is a virus that has polluted the world. Or maybe Pussy Riot, or the unlimited personal freedom of driving bakers out of business. What US are you referring too? I'm genuinely curious.

    You’re just a nasty little troll ain’t ya?

    Buh bye

    Read More
    • Replies: @IA

    You’re just a nasty little troll ain’t ya?

    Buh bye
     
    I'm sorry you are unable to celebrate my virtues but I see nothing nasty or "trollish" in querying the idea of "who" is the US.
  133. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    When Rosenfeld analyzed St Louis’s crime data, he found the increase in homicides there could not have been caused by a “Ferguson effect”, because the greatest increase came early in the year, months before Michael Brown’s death or the protests that followed.

    However, it came after the shooting of Trayvon Martin and the protests surrounding that.

    Should we then call it the Zimmerman Effect?

    Read More
  134. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Yak-15
    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals? I am fine with the murder rate being very high in black areas so long as they stay out of my area. If they do not want the dwindling police resources in my city to stop them from murdering each other, I see no problem with that. I just wish we would airdrop birth control and set up more Planned Parenthood clinics. And this brings me to my favorite argument with progressive types.

    I invariably get into the HBD theories and how African Americans on average have lower IQs, higher propensity for crime, lower time preference, etc. At some point a few of the people I argue with have came back at me with something to this affect: "So what if you are correct and all these things about blacks are true? What do you suggest we do about it? What is your solution?"

    To that I replied "Nothing. There is nothing we as a society can do to change these genetic realities short of eugenics. However, on a personal level, you already build every aspect of your lives as if you believe these facts. You went to high end colleges with few blacks. You work in a company almost completely devoid of blacks. You spend enormous amounts of money to live in areas away from African Americans. Similarly, you will never send your kids to school with many African Americans. And lastly, you chronically avoid African American areas after dark or in contexts that would make you unsafe.

    Essentially your lives are lived exclusively away from blacks. This is due to innate differences in intellectual capabilities and out of fear for your safety. That is reality you have chosen and your actions prove you believe what I say whether you want to admit it or not."

    Super-awesome!

    Read More
  135. V Vega says:
    @Anonym
    Do you expect great strategic thinking from those with a mean IQ of 85?

    Do you expect great strategic thinking from those with a mean IQ of 85?

    I would expect savage “Lord of the Flies” stuff like this:

    Normally one would attribute behavior such as that example as being related to a pathology. That is, something that has gone horribly wrong with their brain physiology.

    With too many black people, it’s just bad long-term decision making. Because they have the collective IQ, and emotional intelligence of a mean-spirited 13 year old.

    Read More
  136. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Jefferson
    A thug rapper in prison named Prince Dracula claims he is Prince's biological son. His prison sentence ends in 2020.
    http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/prisoner-princes-son-only-heir-to-300-million-estate/

    If a paternity test proves this Dindu Nuffin is Prince's biological son, it certainly adds fuel to the theory that the vast majority of affluent Blacks have family members who are part of the Black underclass, just like in The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air. Even Hussein Obama has family members who are part of the Black underclass.

    Not too many affluent Blacks come from 100 percent blue blood wealthy families.

    On the flip side most affluent Whites do not have family members who are part of the White underclass. Not as many Fresh Prince Of Bel Air cases among affluent Whites.

    ‘His sentence ends in 2020″.

    Since the 57 year old Prince didn’t have the prudence, thoughtfulness, responsibility or foresight to even make out a will for his enormous fortune he will still have plenty of time to make his claim.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "His sentence ends in 2020″.

    Since the 57 year old Prince didn’t have the prudence, thoughtfulness, responsibility or foresight to even make out a will for his enormous fortune he will still have plenty of time to make his claim."

    Snoop Dogg didn't make a will either and he says he never plans to.
    http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/snoop-dogg-on-his-lack-of-will-i-dont-give-a-fck-when-im-dead/
  137. @Arclight
    Exactly. I also found his worries about drop by fans amusing. Even he doesn't want a bunch of g0odwhites intruding on his daily existence, although my feeling is that if you monetize your notoriety you don't get a pass on the ugly/inconvenient side of it either.

    I go out of my way to not reveal where public figures live precisely. For example, I rewrote a posting about news stories about Carlos Slim putting his New York mansion up for sale for $80 million to reveal only that it was in Manhattan, even though it’s one of the most prominent addresses in America.

    My thinking on this goes back to John Lennon’s assumption that it was safe in the late 1970s to mention in interviews that he lived in The Dakota.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Arclight
    I think you have a sensible policy as a media professional but if you are someone like TNC people who want to know will find out where you live whether it's in the paper or not. I guess I would have more sympathy for someone whose presence in public life was akin to that of Mr. Rogers rather than TNC. He makes a living by stirring up division and dislike of a huge percentage of his countrymen, and then wants to be anonymous when it's convenient. Meanwhile the rest of us have to live in areas where the effect of the resentment "intellectuals" like himself stoke up have a direct impact on our quality of life and safety, and the possibility of a $2M+ home in a picturesque area of the world's most important city is only a dream. I don't feel sorry for him or his inconvenience.
  138. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @res

    Here’s the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.
     
    Wow. The punchline was obvious, but I was still stunned by the effect sizes. A 5.2% increase in firearm homicide for each 1% increase in % black?! I wonder if there is any significant nonlinear effect.

    “I was still stunned by the effects sizes. A 5.2% increase in firearm homicide for each 1% increase in % black?!”

    Even a small, or very small increase in the black population in any given area can have a dramatic impact on crime. This became apparent as early as the early 1970′s in formerly all white Toronto. London, England saw a similar phenomenon. Even a small black population can cause a lot of trouble.

    Read More
  139. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Mike Sylwester
    We as a country are not providing the tools necessary to succeed to black men.

    We as a country are allowing millions of immigrates to take a huge portion of our country's low-skill jobs. Our economically most displaced native citizens are our young Black men.

    In the Ferguson case, Michael Brown was permanently unemployed. Only 18, he already had made himself uneducable and unemployable by smoking marijuana all day every day.

    Brown robbed a store that employed only Pakistani immigrants. A few days later, mobs of local Blacks burned down several beauty stores that employed only Korean immigrants.

    If we as a country continue to import millions of low-skill foreigners, our Black men will continue to suffer very high unemployment.

    (This is my second response to your comment. I failed to link my first response to your comment, but you can find it in this thread.)

    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?

    Read More
    • Replies: @IA

    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?

     

    Awe and bitter resentment.
    , @anon
    Their leaders are bought.

    You'll see in November when Trump's numbers come in.
  140. Indigene says:

    Rather than subject us to arguments like: “[but] murder rates vary widely from year to year,” or, OTOH, “17% is a big number,” with no context, can someone tell us some measure of dispersion of the crime stats, like the variance, the standard deviation, the mean annual change net of trend, or the average absolute deviation from the mean? This back and forth is kind of frustrating.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The biggest single year jump in homicides in recent decades before 2015 was 12% in 1990 at the peak of the Crack Wars, so 16+% in 2015 is huge (although that's only being measured in 56 big cities, so nationally it's probably a little lower).

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/nyt-editorial-false-alarms-about-a-national-crime-wave/?highlight=homicide+Bialik

  141. IA says:
    @AndrewR
    You're just a nasty little troll ain't ya?

    Buh bye

    You’re just a nasty little troll ain’t ya?

    Buh bye

    I’m sorry you are unable to celebrate my virtues but I see nothing nasty or “trollish” in querying the idea of “who” is the US.

    Read More
  142. @Indigene
    Rather than subject us to arguments like: "[but] murder rates vary widely from year to year," or, OTOH, "17% is a big number," with no context, can someone tell us some measure of dispersion of the crime stats, like the variance, the standard deviation, the mean annual change net of trend, or the average absolute deviation from the mean? This back and forth is kind of frustrating.

    The biggest single year jump in homicides in recent decades before 2015 was 12% in 1990 at the peak of the Crack Wars, so 16+% in 2015 is huge (although that’s only being measured in 56 big cities, so nationally it’s probably a little lower).

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/nyt-editorial-false-alarms-about-a-national-crime-wave/?highlight=homicide+Bialik

    Read More
  143. Ivy says:
    @biz
    The First 48 should be required viewing for every American. It is not only real life-and-death human drama, but portrays law enforcement and crime in a way that news and analysis just cannot.

    Among the many tidbits from that show (in no particular order):
    - people will murder over tiny insults
    - almost everything in a major city is caught on camera
    - criminals do stupid things like attempt to sell back registered cell phones stolen from murder victims
    - when criminals are caught reactions vary, but many view being sent to prison for life with the same amount of gravity that I view going for a routine dental exam
    - white-on-white homicide is rarer but exactly what stereotypes would predict (domestic disputes and quarrels over women fueled by alcohol)

    The Wire and similar shows portraying the vibrancy of life were ahead of their MSM time.

    Read More
    • Replies: @biz
    True, but The First 48 has the advantage of being real.
  144. Jefferson says:
    @anon
    'His sentence ends in 2020".

    Since the 57 year old Prince didn't have the prudence, thoughtfulness, responsibility or foresight to even make out a will for his enormous fortune he will still have plenty of time to make his claim.

    “His sentence ends in 2020″.

    Since the 57 year old Prince didn’t have the prudence, thoughtfulness, responsibility or foresight to even make out a will for his enormous fortune he will still have plenty of time to make his claim.”

    Snoop Dogg didn’t make a will either and he says he never plans to.

    http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/snoop-dogg-on-his-lack-of-will-i-dont-give-a-fck-when-im-dead/

    Read More
  145. IA says:
    @anon
    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?

    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?

    Awe and bitter resentment.

    Read More
  146. @Grumpy
    It's not just violent crime that's rising.

    California Ballot Measure Blamed for Shoplifting Jump

    "It's just pretty much open season," Lutz said. "They'll pick the $800 unit and just grab it and run out the door."

    Anything below $950 keeps the crime a misdemeanor — and likely means the thieves face no pursuit and no punishment, say retailers and law enforcement officials. Large retailers including Safeway, Target, Rite Aid and CVS pharmacies say shoplifting increased at least 15 percent, and in some cases, doubled since voters approved Proposition 47 and ended the possibility of charging shoplifting as a felony with the potential for a prison sentence.
     
    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/california-ballot-measure-blamed-shoplifting-jump-39115364

    A friend works at Old Navy and says pretty much what this article says. Thieves make a move on her store every freaking day. Jump and run, hide it in the bag, pull it off the rack and say you’re returning something without a receipt, conceal it in the bottom of a stroller. The employees are not allowed to confront and the cops are called constantly.

    I just went to a neighborhood meeting about some local crap and I have to say I feel sorry for the officers. They have to deal with the same criminals and bad actors over and over again. Then, the homeowners are bitching at them to get rid of these people. Really they’re caught in a vice squeeze by the liberals in charge and the citizens who want good neighborhoods.

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts? I don’t mean the old folks entitlements. I mean the food stamps, medicaid, cheap housing, WIC, EITC, and such. I understand why people want free stuff, but I don’t get why they want criminals roaming around and crappy neighborhoods. Maybe they’re the same group of people.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lurker
    Talking of Old Navy . . .

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3568851/Old-Navy-attacked-Twitter-ad-features-interracial-family.html

    The comments are largely of the "It's the current year!" *eye roll* variety. And of course that stupid, poor, ignorant (what are they ignorant of?) whites cannot get with the idea of all these well presented black rocket surgeons.

    Feel free to add some red arrows.
    , @anon

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts?
     
    Yes. The media's divide and rule keeps the angry segment too shouty for those other people to get a word in.

    for example say there's
    - one third sane
    - one third shouty
    - one third in the middle

    by constantly throwing fuel on the fire the media make sure the shouty segment win the neutrals so the sane segment give up, shut up and just keep their kids indoors

    the media don't want a solution cos keeping it the same feeds their anti-white narrative

  147. Boomstick says:

    I doubt that turf wars over heroin are driving the increased murder rate. Illegal heroin leading to more ODs, sure. But the murder rate seems to be driven on the one hand by police who think that they’ll be hung out to dry by the leadership if they make the slightest misstep, and on the other hand increased animal spirits on the part of the policed. The cops are less likely to roust criminals for petty offenses, and the criminals are feeling their oats.

    I suppose you could test this by looking for heroin arrests in the cities that have seen more murders. My guess is that you won’t see more, and the gang warfare is just the usual dreary fights over personal slights and turf. But I don’t spend much time in the hood.

    Read More
  148. Lurker says:
    @Formerly CARealist
    A friend works at Old Navy and says pretty much what this article says. Thieves make a move on her store every freaking day. Jump and run, hide it in the bag, pull it off the rack and say you're returning something without a receipt, conceal it in the bottom of a stroller. The employees are not allowed to confront and the cops are called constantly.

    I just went to a neighborhood meeting about some local crap and I have to say I feel sorry for the officers. They have to deal with the same criminals and bad actors over and over again. Then, the homeowners are bitching at them to get rid of these people. Really they're caught in a vice squeeze by the liberals in charge and the citizens who want good neighborhoods.

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts? I don't mean the old folks entitlements. I mean the food stamps, medicaid, cheap housing, WIC, EITC, and such. I understand why people want free stuff, but I don't get why they want criminals roaming around and crappy neighborhoods. Maybe they're the same group of people.

    Talking of Old Navy . . .

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3568851/Old-Navy-attacked-Twitter-ad-features-interracial-family.html

    The comments are largely of the “It’s the current year!” *eye roll* variety. And of course that stupid, poor, ignorant (what are they ignorant of?) whites cannot get with the idea of all these well presented black rocket surgeons.

    Feel free to add some red arrows.

    Read More
  149. Lot says:
    @Jefferson
    "It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold."

    Hussein Obama lost Orange County in 2012 to the boring uncharismatic Mormon guy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_California,_2012#By_county

    Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president."

    When even a charismatic Black Democrat who was promoted by the mainstream media as the second coming of Christ can't win Orange County, forget about uncharismatic Hildabeast and her ugly cankles winning Orange County.

    Going from pop star icon Obama to more boring than paint dry Hildabeast is like going from filet mignon to tator tots.

    Even when Hildabeast tries to act like Black, she still comes off as a super stiff WASP.

    Hildabeast needs to call Iggy Azalea to get advice from her on how to act like Black and come off as cool & natural.

  150. Fun says:
    @Jack Hanson
    You couldn't differentiate between the fake gun Rice was pointing at people, and Garner was a fat recidivist felon resisting arrest.

    In other words tell me more about how bad the jocks in HS beat you up.

    And neither of them should have died. Do you get it now?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    They died because of their own choices. Do YOU get it now?
    , @SPMoore8
    I don't think anyone is going to convince anyone else when it comes to police officers shooting people. All I know is that the Tamir Rice family suit was settled for $6 million a few weeks ago, and the Garner's got $5.9 million. You don't get that kind of money for nothing.
  151. I’m happy to know the Ferguson Effect has rendered the badge wearers ALMOST as cucked as the rest of us hapless civilians.

    Read More
  152. @Priss Factor
    "Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America..."

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called 'rampage' or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It's like the term 'Jim Crow' sums up so much about US history.

    What’s wrong with “Civil Rights Crimewave” ? As in “… the civil rights crimewave of the 1960s …”

    Read More
  153. @countenance
    The Ferguson Effect is far more valid in the arena of the black undertow being agitated than it is in the level of law enforcement. What it means is that more cops and more enforcement won't solve much, what it will take is for the natives to get restful. Or at the very least, for the (((media))) not to amp them up.

    Crime rates did increase in St. Louis even before August 9, 2014, and it went up in 2013. But that does not disprove the Ferguson Effect, in fact, it proves it. It's just that it shows that the Ferguson Effect deserves a different name. The reason for the increases in 2013 and 2014 had to do with another late teens young black man who was news about that time, and he's suddenly news again: Trayvon Martin. The media whipped up Trayvonmania to help re-elect Obama, and that happened, and a combination of both leading into the start of 2013 was a cue to the undertow that they could start raging out. Trayvon's father, incidentally, is a native of East St. Louis.

    Maybe they should call it the Obama Effect?

    Read More
  154. @Fun
    And neither of them should have died. Do you get it now?

    They died because of their own choices. Do YOU get it now?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    Good answer, but you're responding to a person who has no interest in getting it. The only thing he is interested in getting is getting on your nerves. We've got a couple of these types as regulars now. I don't imagine they expect to change any minds, but if they can annoy people they're happy. It's what being a leftist is all about.
    , @SPMoore8
    Saying a 12 year old died because of his own choices is pretty lame. I bet you don't say that when a 12 year old gets hit by a car because he was dumb enough to ride out into traffic.
  155. The drugs aren’t the problem … it’s government-imposed barriers to entry into competition with Big Pharma that have created the environment in which there is then a big turf-war to control the illicit distribution channels of the illegal stuff that is the problem.

    With nearly 100m of the US population now out of the labour force, and with many of those in a position where they will have no hope of ever having a meaningful, productive job that helps them to make a meaningful contribution to society, maybe it is time to rethink the whole war on drugs thingy and start to use both legal and illegal drugs as a tool to keep the baser instincts of that corner of the population in check.

    BTW, the problem has everything to do with video surveillance of law enforcement to make sure that they actually follow the law while enforcing it, and nothing at all to do with the Dreamers we’ve brought in by the 10′s of thousands in the last few years (run the correlation on that). /sarc

    Read More
  156. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Fun
    The 'just doing their jobs' line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent, the overzealous police response resulted in unnecessary deaths, and consequences were nil. These weren't good cops valiantly protecting us from criminals. They were shit cops, acting like dumb meatheads, and people lost their lives because of that.

    The ‘just doing their jobs’ line is perhaps true if you ignore cases like Tamir Rice and Eric Garner, where the actual criminality was minimal or non-existent

    There are two definitions of “their job.”

    The filthy lying media version which excludes all the casual insanity and adult toddler violence among the underclass and the true version which includes it.

    If you don’t want cops who are too hyped up (which i agree they are) then get the filthy lying media to tell the truth and then something could be done to make the psycho areas those cops work in less psycho.

    Read More
  157. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @anon
    Since immigration clearly economically hurts blacks so much, this begs the question; why do they so overwhelmingly support the pro-immigration Democratic party?

    Their leaders are bought.

    You’ll see in November when Trump’s numbers come in.

    Read More
  158. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Formerly CARealist
    A friend works at Old Navy and says pretty much what this article says. Thieves make a move on her store every freaking day. Jump and run, hide it in the bag, pull it off the rack and say you're returning something without a receipt, conceal it in the bottom of a stroller. The employees are not allowed to confront and the cops are called constantly.

    I just went to a neighborhood meeting about some local crap and I have to say I feel sorry for the officers. They have to deal with the same criminals and bad actors over and over again. Then, the homeowners are bitching at them to get rid of these people. Really they're caught in a vice squeeze by the liberals in charge and the citizens who want good neighborhoods.

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts? I don't mean the old folks entitlements. I mean the food stamps, medicaid, cheap housing, WIC, EITC, and such. I understand why people want free stuff, but I don't get why they want criminals roaming around and crappy neighborhoods. Maybe they're the same group of people.

    Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts?

    Yes. The media’s divide and rule keeps the angry segment too shouty for those other people to get a word in.

    for example say there’s
    - one third sane
    - one third shouty
    - one third in the middle

    by constantly throwing fuel on the fire the media make sure the shouty segment win the neutrals so the sane segment give up, shut up and just keep their kids indoors

    the media don’t want a solution cos keeping it the same feeds their anti-white narrative

    Read More
  159. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Chris Mallory
    “Ferguson effect”- Overpaid government employees not doing the job they are paid to do because their lack of self control, inbred dishonesty, and cowardice causes them to normally commit acts that would send them to prison for the rest of their lives if the same acts were committed by honest citizens instead of government thugs.

    Disarm all cops.

    Citizens should be armed, not government employees.

    you should be dropped in the middle of some nasty ghetto with no money or phone just as it’s getting dark

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  160. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Yak-15
    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals? I am fine with the murder rate being very high in black areas so long as they stay out of my area. If they do not want the dwindling police resources in my city to stop them from murdering each other, I see no problem with that. I just wish we would airdrop birth control and set up more Planned Parenthood clinics. And this brings me to my favorite argument with progressive types.

    I invariably get into the HBD theories and how African Americans on average have lower IQs, higher propensity for crime, lower time preference, etc. At some point a few of the people I argue with have came back at me with something to this affect: "So what if you are correct and all these things about blacks are true? What do you suggest we do about it? What is your solution?"

    To that I replied "Nothing. There is nothing we as a society can do to change these genetic realities short of eugenics. However, on a personal level, you already build every aspect of your lives as if you believe these facts. You went to high end colleges with few blacks. You work in a company almost completely devoid of blacks. You spend enormous amounts of money to live in areas away from African Americans. Similarly, you will never send your kids to school with many African Americans. And lastly, you chronically avoid African American areas after dark or in contexts that would make you unsafe.

    Essentially your lives are lived exclusively away from blacks. This is due to innate differences in intellectual capabilities and out of fear for your safety. That is reality you have chosen and your actions prove you believe what I say whether you want to admit it or not."

    What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals?

    1. Detroit
    2. Section 8

    the bad guys aren’t gonna stop until you run out of places to white flight to

    Read More
  161. biz says:
    @Ivy
    The Wire and similar shows portraying the vibrancy of life were ahead of their MSM time.

    True, but The First 48 has the advantage of being real.

    Read More
  162. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Below is a link to an article published today on how Nashville is addressing its recent increase in murders and violence by Nashville’s youth.

    Among the country’s 50 largest cities, Nashville ranked second last year for the highest percentage increase in murders, according to findings recently released by the FBI and the Washington Post.

    The findings show Nashville’s criminal homicide rate rose 83 percent last year, from 41 in 2014 to 75.

    http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2016/02/25/nashvilles-2015-murder-increase-ranked-second-nationally/80940050/

    The focus is on empowering youth. Factors that Nashville identifies as contributing to the crime problem include “concentrated poverty, poor educational opportunities, boredom due to lack of activities, unemployment and lack of caring adults in the lives of children.” There’s no mention of the ferguson effect.

    http://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/editorials/2016/05/15/help-nashville-youth-feel-validated-hopeful-empowered/84243424/

    Read More
  163. Arclight says:
    @Steve Sailer
    I go out of my way to not reveal where public figures live precisely. For example, I rewrote a posting about news stories about Carlos Slim putting his New York mansion up for sale for $80 million to reveal only that it was in Manhattan, even though it's one of the most prominent addresses in America.

    My thinking on this goes back to John Lennon's assumption that it was safe in the late 1970s to mention in interviews that he lived in The Dakota.

    I think you have a sensible policy as a media professional but if you are someone like TNC people who want to know will find out where you live whether it’s in the paper or not. I guess I would have more sympathy for someone whose presence in public life was akin to that of Mr. Rogers rather than TNC. He makes a living by stirring up division and dislike of a huge percentage of his countrymen, and then wants to be anonymous when it’s convenient. Meanwhile the rest of us have to live in areas where the effect of the resentment “intellectuals” like himself stoke up have a direct impact on our quality of life and safety, and the possibility of a $2M+ home in a picturesque area of the world’s most important city is only a dream. I don’t feel sorry for him or his inconvenience.

    Read More
  164. Jefferson says:
    @Lot
    Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president.

    “Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president.”

    When even a charismatic Black Democrat who was promoted by the mainstream media as the second coming of Christ can’t win Orange County, forget about uncharismatic Hildabeast and her ugly cankles winning Orange County.

    Going from pop star icon Obama to more boring than paint dry Hildabeast is like going from filet mignon to tator tots.

    Even when Hildabeast tries to act like Black, she still comes off as a super stiff WASP.

    Hildabeast needs to call Iggy Azalea to get advice from her on how to act like Black and come off as cool & natural.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Even when Hildabeast tries to act like Black, she still comes off as a super stiff WASP.
     
    Her WASP side isn't even Old American-- she's of recent English miner stock, like Derb.

    She should instead draw on her French Canadian strain, I believe her only pre-20th century North American ancestry. She's distantly related to Madonna, and probably to Alanis Morisette and even Avril Lavigne. Maybe even Buffy Sainte-Marie.

    That's several generations worth of street cred, albeit on the wrong side of the Lakes.

  165. @Jack Hanson
    They died because of their own choices. Do YOU get it now?

    Good answer, but you’re responding to a person who has no interest in getting it. The only thing he is interested in getting is getting on your nerves. We’ve got a couple of these types as regulars now. I don’t imagine they expect to change any minds, but if they can annoy people they’re happy. It’s what being a leftist is all about.

    Read More
  166. SPMoore8 says:
    @Jack Hanson
    They died because of their own choices. Do YOU get it now?

    Saying a 12 year old died because of his own choices is pretty lame. I bet you don’t say that when a 12 year old gets hit by a car because he was dumb enough to ride out into traffic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    Would you prefer it if we said he died because of his actions, rather than his choices?

    When a 12 year old rides into traffic and gets hit by a car we don't blame the driver, do we? When a 12 year old brandishes a pistol that looks exactly like a pistol and gets shot by a police officer, we shouldn't blame the police officer either. But some people do.

    BTW, one might hope that a 12 year old boy waving around what looks like a pistol would get the benefit of the doubt. If young blacks were not responsible for so much violence, that might be an option.
    , @The most deplorable one
    I guess you are right.

    It was the choices of his parents that should be blamed.

    His parents should have known where he was and what he was doing, although I must admit that when I was twelve I didn't go around waving replica guns at policemen or riding my bike into traffic.

    I guess that was my white privilege protecting me.
    , @anon
    Well we certainly wouldn't or couldn't say it was the fault of the driver now could we? So if only by default it must be the 12 year old's fault. Or if you want to give it deeper thought, the fault of his parents.
  167. SPMoore8 says:
    @Fun
    And neither of them should have died. Do you get it now?

    I don’t think anyone is going to convince anyone else when it comes to police officers shooting people. All I know is that the Tamir Rice family suit was settled for $6 million a few weeks ago, and the Garner’s got $5.9 million. You don’t get that kind of money for nothing.

    Read More
  168. @SPMoore8
    Saying a 12 year old died because of his own choices is pretty lame. I bet you don't say that when a 12 year old gets hit by a car because he was dumb enough to ride out into traffic.

    Would you prefer it if we said he died because of his actions, rather than his choices?

    When a 12 year old rides into traffic and gets hit by a car we don’t blame the driver, do we? When a 12 year old brandishes a pistol that looks exactly like a pistol and gets shot by a police officer, we shouldn’t blame the police officer either. But some people do.

    BTW, one might hope that a 12 year old boy waving around what looks like a pistol would get the benefit of the doubt. If young blacks were not responsible for so much violence, that might be an option.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    I think people get emotional about these kinds of things. The first thing any normal person says when a 12 year old gets killed is, "What a tragedy!" You don't say sh*t like, "Well, he should've known better." The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability, as far as I am concerned. And I think that's what Fun was saying.
  169. SPMoore8 says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    Would you prefer it if we said he died because of his actions, rather than his choices?

    When a 12 year old rides into traffic and gets hit by a car we don't blame the driver, do we? When a 12 year old brandishes a pistol that looks exactly like a pistol and gets shot by a police officer, we shouldn't blame the police officer either. But some people do.

    BTW, one might hope that a 12 year old boy waving around what looks like a pistol would get the benefit of the doubt. If young blacks were not responsible for so much violence, that might be an option.

    I think people get emotional about these kinds of things. The first thing any normal person says when a 12 year old gets killed is, “What a tragedy!” You don’t say sh*t like, “Well, he should’ve known better.” The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability, as far as I am concerned. And I think that’s what Fun was saying.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    Settlements are often made without any admission of guilt; for example, when it's cheaper to settle than to go to court or to have blacks burn and loot large parts of the city. In this case, I'd call it Danegeld.
    , @CJ
    The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability...

    No they're not. Democratic city machine governments pay out these "ghetto lottery" wins to keep their electorate onside. Tamir Rice looked 20 years old and walked around a park pointing a gun that looked exactly like a 1911 pistol directly at people. Eric Garner insisted on getting into a physical struggle with police while being 200 pounds overweight.

    Second City Cop: Ghetto Lottery Again
    , @anon
    Not an admission of culpability at all. Lawsuits are routinely settled out of court simply because it is often cheaper to do so rather then fight. Many cities and corporations have a policy of doing so. Its called the ghetto lottery. And I suppose the fear of a riot from an outraged black mob stirred up by a local race-pimp doesn't hurt either.
  170. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @SPMoore8
    Saying a 12 year old died because of his own choices is pretty lame. I bet you don't say that when a 12 year old gets hit by a car because he was dumb enough to ride out into traffic.

    I guess you are right.

    It was the choices of his parents that should be blamed.

    His parents should have known where he was and what he was doing, although I must admit that when I was twelve I didn’t go around waving replica guns at policemen or riding my bike into traffic.

    I guess that was my white privilege protecting me.

    Read More
  171. @SPMoore8
    I think people get emotional about these kinds of things. The first thing any normal person says when a 12 year old gets killed is, "What a tragedy!" You don't say sh*t like, "Well, he should've known better." The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability, as far as I am concerned. And I think that's what Fun was saying.

    Settlements are often made without any admission of guilt; for example, when it’s cheaper to settle than to go to court or to have blacks burn and loot large parts of the city. In this case, I’d call it Danegeld.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    Okay, we replace #blacklivesmatter with #blacklivescostalot

    The whole point of a settlement is to not admit culpability.
  172. CJ says:
    @SPMoore8
    I think people get emotional about these kinds of things. The first thing any normal person says when a 12 year old gets killed is, "What a tragedy!" You don't say sh*t like, "Well, he should've known better." The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability, as far as I am concerned. And I think that's what Fun was saying.

    The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability…

    No they’re not. Democratic city machine governments pay out these “ghetto lottery” wins to keep their electorate onside. Tamir Rice looked 20 years old and walked around a park pointing a gun that looked exactly like a 1911 pistol directly at people. Eric Garner insisted on getting into a physical struggle with police while being 200 pounds overweight.

    Second City Cop: Ghetto Lottery Again

    Read More
    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    All I know is that the Rice and Garner families both got $6 MM checks, and quickly. That's six times was Trayvon's family got. In the Gentle Giant case, on the other hand, the family of Michael Brown has so far received -- nothing (although that's still winding its way through the courts.)

    The whole point of settlement is not admitting culpability. They could always take it to court.
  173. SPMoore8 says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    Settlements are often made without any admission of guilt; for example, when it's cheaper to settle than to go to court or to have blacks burn and loot large parts of the city. In this case, I'd call it Danegeld.

    Okay, we replace #blacklivesmatter with #blacklivescostalot

    The whole point of a settlement is to not admit culpability.

    Read More
  174. SPMoore8 says:
    @CJ
    The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability...

    No they're not. Democratic city machine governments pay out these "ghetto lottery" wins to keep their electorate onside. Tamir Rice looked 20 years old and walked around a park pointing a gun that looked exactly like a 1911 pistol directly at people. Eric Garner insisted on getting into a physical struggle with police while being 200 pounds overweight.

    Second City Cop: Ghetto Lottery Again

    All I know is that the Rice and Garner families both got $6 MM checks, and quickly. That’s six times was Trayvon’s family got. In the Gentle Giant case, on the other hand, the family of Michael Brown has so far received — nothing (although that’s still winding its way through the courts.)

    The whole point of settlement is not admitting culpability. They could always take it to court.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JimL
    The fact that the cop who shot Rice was apparently a basket case who should not have been anywhere near a gun probably was a factor in the quick settlement.
  175. Mr. Anon says:
    @Sailer has an interesting life
    The Sailer Gap is shortening! Calling it now. 2052 is the year people MAY consider that IQ could be PARTLY genetic.

    We can do it Stevarino!

    “The Sailer Gap is shortening! Calling it now. 2052 is the year people MAY consider that IQ could be PARTLY genetic.”

    In the mean time, perhaps you can just explain your stupidity as due to a blow to the head.

    Read More
  176. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @SPMoore8
    Saying a 12 year old died because of his own choices is pretty lame. I bet you don't say that when a 12 year old gets hit by a car because he was dumb enough to ride out into traffic.

    Well we certainly wouldn’t or couldn’t say it was the fault of the driver now could we? So if only by default it must be the 12 year old’s fault. Or if you want to give it deeper thought, the fault of his parents.

    Read More
  177. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @SPMoore8
    I think people get emotional about these kinds of things. The first thing any normal person says when a 12 year old gets killed is, "What a tragedy!" You don't say sh*t like, "Well, he should've known better." The settlements the Rice and Garner families received is pretty much an admission of culpability, as far as I am concerned. And I think that's what Fun was saying.

    Not an admission of culpability at all. Lawsuits are routinely settled out of court simply because it is often cheaper to do so rather then fight. Many cities and corporations have a policy of doing so. Its called the ghetto lottery. And I suppose the fear of a riot from an outraged black mob stirred up by a local race-pimp doesn’t hurt either.

    Read More
  178. @Jefferson
    "Oops! It is San Diego that went for Obama by a few points, OC is still just barely Republican when it votes for president."

    When even a charismatic Black Democrat who was promoted by the mainstream media as the second coming of Christ can't win Orange County, forget about uncharismatic Hildabeast and her ugly cankles winning Orange County.

    Going from pop star icon Obama to more boring than paint dry Hildabeast is like going from filet mignon to tator tots.

    Even when Hildabeast tries to act like Black, she still comes off as a super stiff WASP.

    Hildabeast needs to call Iggy Azalea to get advice from her on how to act like Black and come off as cool & natural.

    Even when Hildabeast tries to act like Black, she still comes off as a super stiff WASP.

    Her WASP side isn’t even Old American– she’s of recent English miner stock, like Derb.

    She should instead draw on her French Canadian strain, I believe her only pre-20th century North American ancestry. She’s distantly related to Madonna, and probably to Alanis Morisette and even Avril Lavigne. Maybe even Buffy Sainte-Marie.

    That’s several generations worth of street cred, albeit on the wrong side of the Lakes.

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  179. @Priss Factor
    "Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America..."

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called 'rampage' or some such thing.

    A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.

    It's like the term 'Jim Crow' sums up so much about US history.

    For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.

    The phenom should be called ‘rampage’ or some such thing.

    The Civil Riots Movement.

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  180. Tex says:
    @candid_observer

    Marvel must be paying Ta-Nehisi Coates a shit load of money, if he can afford to drop $2,100,000 on a home.
     
    That's a nice bunch of comics you got there, Marvel. Wouldn't want anything racist to happen in it, ya know?

    Marvel’s comics are increasingly SJW-controlled. Bankrolling Coates pretty much clarifies what they are all about now.

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  181. JimL says:
    @SPMoore8
    All I know is that the Rice and Garner families both got $6 MM checks, and quickly. That's six times was Trayvon's family got. In the Gentle Giant case, on the other hand, the family of Michael Brown has so far received -- nothing (although that's still winding its way through the courts.)

    The whole point of settlement is not admitting culpability. They could always take it to court.

    The fact that the cop who shot Rice was apparently a basket case who should not have been anywhere near a gun probably was a factor in the quick settlement.

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  182. Jay Fink says:

    Here in little Yakima WA there have been 9 homicides so far this year compared to 7 in all of 2015. The vast majority are Mexicans killing Mexicans including a sad case of two young women being shot at the payday loan store they worked at.. their dead bodies dumped on the sidewalk outside.

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  183. @Almost Missouri

    "With funding from the National Institute of Justice, the justice department’s research arm, Rosenfeld did a new study early this year..."
     
    Maybe someone who is a research professional can explain this to me. Rosenfeld downloaded some crime stats, made a few time series and bumped them up against several hypotheses. Seems like a leisurely afternoon's work for a competent researcher. Why do these guys never seem to bother until a (6- or 7-figure?) federal check arrives? Isn't this what academics are supposed to be doing by default even without special federal funding? Yet I so often see in press accounts that some rudimentary piece of research was only enabled by a big dollop of taxpayer dough. It's as if these guys are sitting around the faculty lounge on semi-permanent strike, only shifting their sorry butts into gear when massively bribed. Am I missing something? Besides the cushiest gravy train in country?

    Amen

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