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Is There a Generational Explanation for Rising White Death Rates?
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Screenshot 2015-11-03 22.23.42 Above is a graph from the new paper on increasing death rates among middle aged white Americans by Anne Case and Angus Deaton: “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century.”

This graph shows death rates from the big three causes that have exploded among whites since 1998: overdoses, killing yourself, and cirrhosis (not total death rate). In the post below are the authors’ ideas on causes, plus a theory of mine attempting to tie several of their factors together.

But I want to offer another idea that has been largely overlooked: judging from the graph above, the rise in Big 3 death causes was particularly sharp among that now middle aged generation of whites who came of age in the post-Sixties Party Hearty era.

For example, a childhood friend of mine killed himself a few years ago, in his early fifties. When we were in high school together in the mid-1970s, he claimed to be on drugs everyday. Then he became a Dead Head and followed the Grateful Dead around. He was a jovial fellow and claimed to be having a very good time, but I guess when age, worsened by all the drugs he’d taken, started taking its toll, he didn’t have much to look forward to.

When thinking about this graph, something that is confusing is that each line does not represent the same group of individuals over time. Instead, the individuals who make up each line keep changing as the earlier born ones age out of the age-range and are replaced with later born ones. So, it’s pretty informative to work out exactly when each line was born and reached 18.

It’s a little hard to make sense out of a graph like this so here’s a table I made up for each line in the graph in descending order of death rate as of 2013:

Screenshot 2015-11-03 23.23.32

To simplify things, I’ll treat each cohort as being the age of the middle member. Consider the Green line cohort of 50 to 54 year olds who had the biggest increase in death rate from 1998 to 2013, which I’m eyeballing as about 2.9 more deaths per year. To make it easy, this Green line cohort of 50 to 54 year olds can be said to have averaged age 52. In 1998 (at the left side of the graph), the average 52 year old member of the cohort was born in 1946 and was 18 years old in relatively sedate 1964.

Keep in mind that what we think of as The Sixties (i.e., Sex, Drugs and Rock and Roll) didn’t really start for anybody until the middle of the 1960s and for many young people not until the early 1970s. I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home. There are a lot of explanations offered for this usually involving Watergate and Vietnam, but if we need any cause directly related to 1973, I’d guess it was the Roe v. Wade decision on 1/22/73: Seven Supreme Court justices sending the message: Party on, dudes and dudettes!

In 2013 at the right side of the graph, the average member of the Green line cohort was 18 years old in decadent 1979.

What about Red Dash line cohort of 55-59 year olds, the cohort with the second largest growth in death rates? The average member of the cohort in 1998 had been 18 in 1959, while the average member of this cohort in 2013 had been 18 in 1974. Representative youth culture icon of 1959: Buddy Holly. Representative youth culture icon of 1974: David Bowie. (Of course, Holly died at age 22 and Bowie is still with us, so don’t take my examples too seriously).

The Blue Line of 45-49 year olds started out with the highest death rate back in 1998, but hasn’t grown as fast as the 50-54 and 55-59 cohorts. Notably it declined slightly from 2010 to 2013. Average member of this cohort in 1998 had been 18 in 1969 (representative pop icon: Janet Joplin), but by 2013 the average member had been 18 in 1984 (representative pop icon: Michael J. Fox’s Alex Keaton).

What about the purple line of 60-64 year olds, which started out flat, but has been growing sharply? The average member of this cohort in 1998 had been 18 in 1954 (pop icon: Frank Sinatra), but by 2013 the average member had been 18 in 1969 (pop icon: Jim Morrison).

I’ll stop with the red solid line of 40 to 44, which started out with a high death rate in 1998, but didn’t grow much after that. In 1998 the average member had been 18 in 1974, but by 2013 the average member had been 18 in 1989.

I think there is definitely a pattern in that coming of age in the Late 1960s / 1970s seem to have taken a toll on people, leaving them more vulnerable to dying of overdoses, suicide, and alcoholism later in life.

It’s kind of like how homeless people and AIDS sufferers started showing up in the 1980s. There are all sorts of explanations for these separate effects, some valid, some tendentious, but a common theme that’s almost totally overlooked today is that the 1970s were a Big Party and that took its toll on some people.

 
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  1. Arguing against that hypothesis is that this is restricted to American whites. Death rates among the same age group in Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Britain & Sweden have been really dropping. I’d think the 60s drug culture would have existed in those places as well.

    Also, from personal experience: nearly every time that drugs were offered to me in my childhood in the mid-late 70s were by NAMs, although my area was 75-80% white, but NAM death rates are dropping now.

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    • Replies: @dearieme
    Maybe Americans took to drugs heavily (compared to Britain, Germany etc) because American beer in those days was utter rubbish.
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  2. Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

    Read Charles Murray’s Coming Apart for how this cohort has changed since 1970. In addition, 45-54 is the peak suicide age for males.

    Poor whites are like the Pine Ridge Reservation Indians that Steve sometimes mentions.

    Another point is that downscale blacks have seen a greater erosion of their economic status since 2000, but they don’t kill themselves in response. The Suicide Gene is a feature of high latitude populations alone (Nordic whites, Indians, Arctic tribes, Lapps, Japanese, Siberian)

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    • Agree: Stephen R. Diamond
    • Replies: @WhatEvvs

    Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

     

    The question is why are less educated whites dying in greater #s than less educated blacks?
    , @Doug
    One interesting effect is that contrary to expectations, neuroticism is actually inversely correlated with suicide. People from Northern climates are more likely to have co-evolved with "dignity cultures" instead of "honor cultures". Northern Europeans are statistically less neurotic than other groups, particularly in regards to the introspective sub-facets, like anxiety and self-consciousness.

    Groups which evolved under weak states have to constantly be projecting an image of no weakness to dissuade would-be exploiters. Northern Europeans and Japanese have lived under the rule of law for centuries, they can afford to focus less on external image because they can appeal to a strong authority if victimized.

    Since suicide is negatively correlated with agreeableness as well, we can conclude that these internal neurotic sub-facets have very high predictiveness with regards to suicide. Neurotic people seem to think about suicide more, but commit suicide less. I'd posit that this is largely because of anxiety about how others would perceive their suicide. That is Europeans commit suicide more than Africans because they care less about what others will think of them.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21082452
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  3. Maybe the generational explanation is that he “Greatest Generation” remained silent as the country went from being 90% to majority Brown?

    They allowed WWII to be reframed as a war against “White racism” in the public mind and didn’t correct the record. Because they liked being patted on the head as heroes so much.

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    • Replies: @27 year old
    Yeah, the so called "greatest" generation, defeated the mighty Axis war machine, then came home and lost a civil war to bunch of degenerate drug heads.
    , @Anonymous
    Then that same media-approved WWII generation gave a landslide to LBJ who declared a War On Poverty. Since then the AARP turned into a Beltway player and the suburbs got nice & pricey; as for poverty, it's been kicking undereducated unretired meritless whites' and blacks' asses the whole way.
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  4. I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home.

    For visual evidence of this, compare your family photo albums from the early ’70s to those from the late ’60s. Rockers wore long hair in the ’60s, but your older male relatives probably looked like more like Mad Men or NASA Mission Control by comparison. By the early ’70s, your male relatives might have been looking a little shaggier though.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.
    , @Anonymous
    An illustration of how the appearance of astronauts changed between 1963 and 1973:


    http://foolishdoings.blogspot.com/2013/12/i-taught-class-on-space-missions.html?m=1
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  5. @Dave Pinsen

    I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home.
     
    For visual evidence of this, compare your family photo albums from the early '70s to those from the late '60s. Rockers wore long hair in the '60s, but your older male relatives probably looked like more like Mad Men or NASA Mission Control by comparison. By the early '70s, your male relatives might have been looking a little shaggier though.

    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

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    • Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist
    Having looked at dozens of graduation pic displays and yearbooks from teaching, I can confirm your 1972 shift in the rural South. The change is amazing in some cases. I've noticed this for years.
    , @Daniel H
    >>I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    High school yearbooks do provide some interesting evidence for your thesis that the 60s really hit home in 73. I examined the yearbooks of my local Long Island, New York high school on Classmates. Up thorough 1971, students - male and female - , based on their yearbook photos, were uniformly well groomed, with almost all the men sporting neat short haircuts and at least making an effort, albeit clumsy, to be sartorially stylish and groomed. (Dating back to 1969 there were one, two or three men every year who wore their hair long and hippyish) . But in 1972 long, shaggy, lynyrd skynrd-like hair - with attendant blue jeans, blue jean jackets, open collars... - was, if not de rigueur, well represented, and each subsequent year became more representative until the late 1980s. You are correct, the 60's gained traction with masses sometime around 72-74.
    , @5371
    1971-73 were the years of fastest decline in the white TFR (which had still been comfortably above replacement in 1970).
    , @njguy73
    Steve, an entire section of "Generations" by Strauss & Howe is devoted to this. Generations that show dysfunction is youth carry that dysfunction into adulthood and old age.

    The Lost (born 1883-1900) had high suicide rates, among other negative trends, and elder suicide peaked in the 1960s. But when the GI a.k.a. Greatest (born 1901-1924) replaced the Lost in elderhood, elder suicide was practically non-existent from the '70s to the 2000s.

    Going from Silent (Buddy Holly/Frank Sinatra) to Boomer (David Bowie/Janis Joplin) dysfunction is youth rose, thus dysfunction in later life. The Xers (Alex P. Keaton) slightly reversed the trend.

    Do you have a copy of the book? If not, you should get one and keep it on your desk. It's got stats left and right which explain social trends.
    , @The Man From K Street

    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.
     
    The only neocon who seems to Get It on immigration, David Frum, wrote an overlooked book (How We Got Here: The 70's: The Decade That Brought You Modern Life—For Better or Worse) in 2000 that had this as a major part of its thesis. Basically Frum says that 1973 +/- 1 year represented the "IPO" of the Sixties--that the cultural manifestations of that decade had pretty much contained to a tiny sliver (1-2%) of the population during the actual 60s, but that short period of the early days of the next decade is when it had its big Breakout into the American Middle Class. If 1968-1972 was the tenuous Normandy beachhead, 1973 was the rapid advance to Paris and the Siegfried Line.
    , @IBC
    The title sequence for the different seasons of the Brady Bunch gives some idea of middle-brow America's evolution from square, to full-on groovy. Compare the father's hair-do in the first season (1969) to the last (1973). The "afro-lite" was new for '73. The year before, his hair had been only slightly shaggy. I bet if you plot the shift from plain slacks to knit bell-bottoms, you'd see roughly the same arc, at least for the adult characters.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQVorTMa4Nw

    , @yaqub the mad scientist
    Having taught high school and seen the chronology of graduation class portraits of many a school, I can confirm that in the rural South, that is when the change happened. It's so obvious that I've noticed it for years. In composite after composite, the appearance of the students changes dramatically in 1972.
    , @Grumpy
    Looking through decades of photographs of children at the Hutton Settlement (an orphanage in Spokane that still exists), I noticed that the kids' clothing started to look really, really bad in the 1980s. There was a dramatic shift from plain, respectable clothing to cheap ill-fitting t-shirts covered with logos and text. They had the appearance of perfectly typical 80s kids, but it was hard to look at them after looking at the kids from earlier decades. It looked like people had just stopped caring. Have we ever recovered from that?
    , @Brutusale
    I've got my 40th reunion next year, and the Facebook page for the event is already up. I don't know which is worse, the bad long hair and sideburns or the bad plaid pants!
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  6. anon • Disclaimer says:

    The table is confusing the hell out me even though (I think) I grasp the underlying concept. I suspect you’re already working on edits.

    Seems to me the columns:
    “18 years old in 1998″ should be “year of birth (avg)”
    “18 years old in 2013″ should be “year turned 15 (avg)”
    “Avg. Age”, for clarity, could be “age in 2014 (avg)” or average current age.

    What I really want to see is the various cohorts death rates at constant age brackets. Apples to apples. Would be a matrix– cohort birth year on one axis, various age brackets on the other, death rates as the data. Would require a lot eyeballing, however…

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  7. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    Having looked at dozens of graduation pic displays and yearbooks from teaching, I can confirm your 1972 shift in the rural South. The change is amazing in some cases. I’ve noticed this for years.

    Read More
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  8. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    >>I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    High school yearbooks do provide some interesting evidence for your thesis that the 60s really hit home in 73. I examined the yearbooks of my local Long Island, New York high school on Classmates. Up thorough 1971, students – male and female – , based on their yearbook photos, were uniformly well groomed, with almost all the men sporting neat short haircuts and at least making an effort, albeit clumsy, to be sartorially stylish and groomed. (Dating back to 1969 there were one, two or three men every year who wore their hair long and hippyish) . But in 1972 long, shaggy, lynyrd skynrd-like hair – with attendant blue jeans, blue jean jackets, open collars… – was, if not de rigueur, well represented, and each subsequent year became more representative until the late 1980s. You are correct, the 60′s gained traction with masses sometime around 72-74.

    Read More
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  9. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    1971-73 were the years of fastest decline in the white TFR (which had still been comfortably above replacement in 1970).

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  10. Is this really confined to downscale whites?

    I am 40 and live in a rather upscale town where most of the people I socialize with seem to be 45 to 55 (born 1960-1970). A large number of these people seem to be continuously drinking every night and all weekend long and there is also a large subculture of casual drug use – certainly of marijuana but likely more potent drugs as well like oxycotin and other opiodes. Its not unusual for some of these people to hit two parties in a night or to polish off a case of beer in an evening on a front porch between two other friends.

    I can’t say I recall my parents generation (born 1940-1950) doing this when I was growing up, and my wife doesn’t either.

    Obviously anecdotal.

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  11. A possible explanation as well, the Vietnam war, which due to a host of unique cultural issues left its veterans more damaged than most. Happens at the right time, targets the right population. Black veterans probably didn’t push the overall black male mortality line down much, since it starts from such a low baseline. Might be noticeable in whites.

    Possible problem: were there enough vets to influence the numbers this much?

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  12. 30 is middle aged now? Nooooooooooo!!!! Why, god? Why???

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  13. Look, blaming sex, drugs, abortion, liberalism, pc, and immigration all clearly run against the ethnic and national comparisons. Europeans had similar experiences with sex, drugs, and immigration. Blacks had nearly identical experiences with sex, drugs, and immigration. So the real beginning of the solution is what do poor American minorities share with poor European whites that distinguish them both from poor American whites?

    How about poor U.S. minorities and poor European whites are socialist while poor U.S. whites are libertarian? Poor U.S. whites have internalized their crappy economic situation instead of externalized it.

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    • Replies: @jackson
    How about poor U.S. minorities and poor European whites are socialist while poor U.S. whites are libertarian?

    No, among whites (and all other racial/ethnic groups) lower income means more Democrat, not more libertarian. Voting patterns of America’s whites.

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  14. I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home.

    Drug use and divorce I recall peaking in the late 70′s and very early 80′s. So did several measures of sexual promiscuity.

    The mid-70′s were the peak period for middle-middle class incomes relative to the rich. Unions were still powerful, only cheap junk was being made in Asia and Mexico, not cars or appliances, and the stock market was in the crapper.

    The first prestige industries taken over by Asians were calculators by the Japanese in the late 70′s, when they were still very expensive, then televisions in the early 80′s, and then video games in the mid-80′s, when Nintendo displaced Atari.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Those shifty Asians taking all the hwhite man's prestige industries! It's an outrage, I tell you hwhat.
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  15. @Lot

    I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home.
     
    Drug use and divorce I recall peaking in the late 70's and very early 80's. So did several measures of sexual promiscuity.

    The mid-70's were the peak period for middle-middle class incomes relative to the rich. Unions were still powerful, only cheap junk was being made in Asia and Mexico, not cars or appliances, and the stock market was in the crapper.

    The first prestige industries taken over by Asians were calculators by the Japanese in the late 70's, when they were still very expensive, then televisions in the early 80's, and then video games in the mid-80's, when Nintendo displaced Atari.

    Those shifty Asians taking all the hwhite man’s prestige industries! It’s an outrage, I tell you hwhat.

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  16. It seems to me that these death rates likely are strongly negatively correlated with the number of children people have. Many arrive at middle age unprepared for the seeming pointlessness of life without a family.

    Years ago talking with an orthodox Jewish boss, he said that his oldest daughter wanted to be an actuary. “You must be happy about that,” I replied. He said, “No, I want her to make babies.” No woman I’ve dated ever heard such a thing from her father.

    The degradation of family formation and all the tools for preventing it are working.

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  17. Here’s another example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalking_Cat
    I won’t comment on his mental or drug issues other than to say look at the photo of him on that page. From that page:
    ”Stalking Cat had financial troubles, and in August 2007, he posted publicly on his online journal that he needed a new place to live. Calhoun posted that she and her husband simply could not afford to support him anymore.[10][11] She also posted that they would be throwing him a send-off party.[12]

    In September 2007, at age 49, Stalking Cat moved to Tonopah, Nevada. On November 5, 2012, he died alone in his garage in Tonopah.[13][14] He was 54 years old. News of the death became public one week later. In an online post, BMEzine founder Shannon Larratt wrote that his death was a suicide.[2]”
    Apparently a recent change removed the ”he was working as a software developer” part. I think that was key to his suicide. Quite likely he was H1b’d (how much do you want to bet Jimmy Wales wants more of them?) out, then discovered, to put it very bluntly, no one would hire him – for anything, including ”Do you want fries with that?”.
    The money ran out, and he checked out.

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  18. Steve,
    A while ago you said that you were going to explore a reader’s idea about the impact of Vatican 2 on Western Culture, on how the Great Bulwark against the Left joined the Left.

    Moral ruin and despair and early death are all tied together.

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  19. Anecdote != data, but my parents, who met through the Conservative Party in Brooklyn, married in 1971. My father had a huge bushy beard with muttonchops, a brown tuxedo with a yellow shirt. The family-icon picture from their wedding was a mock-American Gothic pose with them smiling in the backyard garden holding a rake and a pitchfork.

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    • Replies: @slumber_j
    And my early family photo from what must be the summer of '66 when I was 1 is in black and white with the family dressed for plane travel: father in tweed jacket and tie; mother in pageboy collar, pearls and cardigan; 5-y.o. sister in pageboy-collared smock dress. I'm wearing a wool cardigan too.
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  20. @Jason
    Maybe the generational explanation is that he "Greatest Generation" remained silent as the country went from being 90% to majority Brown?

    They allowed WWII to be reframed as a war against "White racism" in the public mind and didn't correct the record. Because they liked being patted on the head as heroes so much.

    Yeah, the so called “greatest” generation, defeated the mighty Axis war machine, then came home and lost a civil war to bunch of degenerate drug heads.

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    • Replies: @Curle
    They lost the civil war to someone else. Paul Gottfried's piece, up now on this site, suggests who that is.
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  21. Figure 2 from that paper seems to show that most of the increase in mortality is due to an increase in death by poisoning (and a little is from suicides). I don’t know why this should be. Maybe the introduction of paracetamol pain killers or maybe increasing medical use of opiates?

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  22. There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.

    See:

    Idiocracy Can Wait?

    (towards the bottom)

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    • Replies: @Dumbo
    Bullshit. It is clearly due to a decay in quality of life for a certain subgroup of whites. Life became harder for most, specially for lower-class and lower-middle-class whites, who are the most affected. Canary in the coal mine, etc.

    Also, it is not clear that people who are "less healthy, mentally and physically" (whatever it means) had always less children than smart people (Intelligence and fertility have always been inversely correlated, and even more in the Age of Contraception).

    Finally, if the Baby Boom made "less healthy" people more likely to have children, it would have made the "healthy" have even more children, so the proportion would not have changed as it did.

    Plus, other countries such as Canada, Sweden, etc, had a similar post-war baby boom, but only the US is showing an increase in death of middle-age whites. (for now, at least. maybe we will start seeing this phenomenon in Germany too as immigration and white displacement increase)
    , @EvolutionistX
    Totally annecdotal, but I know several boomers personally who had really messed up parents who probably wouldn't have had any kids if not for the post-war-prosperity. These people are pretty messed up themselves, and often suicidal or otherwise doing things likely to kill themselves.
    , @Doug
    Great point. This is definitely one of the most compelling justifications behind "The Sixties", and I've never seen it brought up anywhere else.
    , @Wilkey
    "There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off."

    This is a possibility. One of the effects of modern medicine is that it keeps alive large numbers of people who are less robust and tend to be more sickly as adults. But how do Europe and Japan compare?
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  23. @Discordiax
    Anecdote != data, but my parents, who met through the Conservative Party in Brooklyn, married in 1971. My father had a huge bushy beard with muttonchops, a brown tuxedo with a yellow shirt. The family-icon picture from their wedding was a mock-American Gothic pose with them smiling in the backyard garden holding a rake and a pitchfork.

    And my early family photo from what must be the summer of ’66 when I was 1 is in black and white with the family dressed for plane travel: father in tweed jacket and tie; mother in pageboy collar, pearls and cardigan; 5-y.o. sister in pageboy-collared smock dress. I’m wearing a wool cardigan too.

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    • Replies: @slumber_j
    I meant "Peter Pan collar" in the above.
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  24. Taking anti-depressants is very common these days. I wonder how many people who kill themselves have been taking them? Do those things predispose one to think offing oneself might be a good idea?

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  25. @slumber_j
    And my early family photo from what must be the summer of '66 when I was 1 is in black and white with the family dressed for plane travel: father in tweed jacket and tie; mother in pageboy collar, pearls and cardigan; 5-y.o. sister in pageboy-collared smock dress. I'm wearing a wool cardigan too.

    I meant “Peter Pan collar” in the above.

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  26. “1970s were a Big Party ” Obviously not true.

    Flamboyant people stick out, but I can guarantee very few people percent wise had the time and money to hang out all day and night. How many flappers were there in the 20s? The reality is few people that needed to get up in the morning attended any parties. At the time I knew of the Sex Pistols, owned an album, knew they were in NYC at Bonds from TV news, but wasn’t the sort that went out that much. I am the non flamboyant 99.5%.

    You also forget more wholsome activities like ballroom dancing aka Disco.

    I would say a better explanation is the reduction in medical care , through regulating the number of doctors and nurses, and increase in cost. Not to mention constantly adding immigrants to the number of patients. This made it impossible for anyone not working for the government to have insurance. Years of not being able to afford basic care is taking its toll.

    There is a crazy wing nut thing fixating on flappers, hippies, anyone on a magazine cover that is flamboyant, the problem is there are very few actual people that are like that in the real world. The Sears catalogue is more a reflection of how people really were.

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    • Replies: @epebble
    Then how do you explain differential behavior with respect to other ethnic groups? They, if anything, had even lower access to healthcare. Also, the prescription painkiller epidemic is probably due to excessive healthcare not less of it.
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  27. A few years ago I went to an outdoor, sitting around the campfire type party thrown by a bunch of aging counter culture renegades who had all purchased cheap land years ago in what had been nowheresville. One of them would pull a little patch aside from the hole in his throat, insert the end of the joint into his neck and inhale. Then he passed the joint on around the circle while croaking through the microphone he held up to his larynx. When the joint got to me, I begged off, claiming health problems. Within a year, he was dead of lung cancer.

    So, my question is, was this suicide? Or death from natural causes?

    He fell smack in the middle of Steve’s demographic cohort of high risk people. Personally, I put his death in the “assisted suicide” category. “Assisted” by the counter culture’s blindness and indifference to and acceptance of slow motion self mutilation (aided maybe by generous inhalation of paraquat?). He had worn his body out. His body couldn’t handle the load that his emotional needs had imposed on it.

    To be stoned and part of the group, he was willing to harm his body–this in spite of his body’s having rebelled and fought back and given him clear warning that all was not well and that he needed to make a lifestyle change and respect its wishes and needs. This was the part of the 70′s counter culture that I walked away from, or rather pedaled away from. I respected my body too much to be a good hippie and became a bike racer instead.

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  28. @Dave Pinsen

    I’ve looked at a lot of data trends over the decades, and it’s always seemed to me that 1973 was the year when The Sixties completely hit home.
     
    For visual evidence of this, compare your family photo albums from the early '70s to those from the late '60s. Rockers wore long hair in the '60s, but your older male relatives probably looked like more like Mad Men or NASA Mission Control by comparison. By the early '70s, your male relatives might have been looking a little shaggier though.

    An illustration of how the appearance of astronauts changed between 1963 and 1973:

    http://foolishdoings.blogspot.com/2013/12/i-taught-class-on-space-missions.html?m=1

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  29. Another theory:

    Pressures of life which can only be escaped through death increase as a man moves into and through middle age, until he approaches retirement and his children have started carrying their own weight. Life gets easier for a few years before the pains and stresses of old age start to mount. But if men are having children later, who take longer to become independent, and they can’t yet retire due to financial needs, then today’s 55-year-old men don’t get the reprieve those twenty years ago did.

    This only accounts for the changes of age groups relative to one another, and not for the overall rise of death for all age groups.

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  30. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    Steve, an entire section of “Generations” by Strauss & Howe is devoted to this. Generations that show dysfunction is youth carry that dysfunction into adulthood and old age.

    The Lost (born 1883-1900) had high suicide rates, among other negative trends, and elder suicide peaked in the 1960s. But when the GI a.k.a. Greatest (born 1901-1924) replaced the Lost in elderhood, elder suicide was practically non-existent from the ’70s to the 2000s.

    Going from Silent (Buddy Holly/Frank Sinatra) to Boomer (David Bowie/Janis Joplin) dysfunction is youth rose, thus dysfunction in later life. The Xers (Alex P. Keaton) slightly reversed the trend.

    Do you have a copy of the book? If not, you should get one and keep it on your desk. It’s got stats left and right which explain social trends.

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  31. The graph from the previous blog shows the mortality increases for whites starting just before 2000, so the lax opioid prescription practices seems like a reasonable cause for the divergence with foreigners, but doesn’t explain the divergence with hispanics.
    This study

    http://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUHresultsPDFWHTML2013/Web/NSDUHresults2013.pdf

    has at page 24 a figure showing past month illicit drug use among three cohort of adults for the period 2002-2013.
    For age 50-54 monthly drug use increases from 3.4 to 7.9, for age 55-59 from 2.5 to 3.9, for 60-64 from 1.9 to 5.7 overtaking the slightly younger cohort.
    This graph doesn’t separate by sex or race, but I think the drug use increases among these middle-age cohorts are driven by white males.

    This study

    http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/NewsEvents/UCM300859.pdf

    shows drug overdose death by race in 2008 and whites have opioid meds death rate of 6.3 compared to 2.1 for hispanics.
    For opioid meds the death rate was 6 for males and 3.7 for females.
    Another graph in this study shows that opioid meds deaths for middle age people had the highest rate compared with other drugs and other age groups.

    Overall there seems to be a drug epidemic of illicit opioid meds and more recently heroin among middle aged men that is driving up their mortality rates and it’s likely that growing up at a time when drugs were becoming accepted and even trendy makes these cohorts more vulnerable.

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  32. Yes, this is a good theory. Its moral collapse that encourages self destructive behavior, not economic collapse. I’d guess that more of this age group are alone in the world, never having married or having gotten divorced, perhaps multiple times.

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  33. I’ve seen demoralization and SCALE mentioned on Twitter and tend to agree. Whites might have a higher threshold for what a good life is so as they see it slipping away they get depressed and kill themselves. The heroin epidemic in rural America feeds on the same factors.

    Could obesity also be a factor? I know NAMs are even more obese and in greater numbers. NAMs have always been chunkier and now they have access to more life saving medical techniques than ever before (one way to employ whites is to keep them alive). Whites always had decent access to medicine, and our BMIs have exploded.

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    • Replies: @The Man From K Street

    I’ve seen demoralization and SCALE mentioned on Twitter and tend to agree.
     
    SCALE? Stands for?
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  34. From the original NYT article:

    Dr. Case, investigating indicators of poor health, discovered that middle-aged people, unlike the young and unlike the elderly, were reporting more pain in recent years than in the past. A third in this group reported they had chronic joint pain over the years 2011 to 2013, and one in seven said they had sciatica. Those with the least education reported the most pain and the worst general health.

    This increase in pain may be symptomatic of increased chronic inflammation. Remember, the late 60s through the 70s was when Americans were moved from a traditional diet to new, space-age diets by the medical profession and Madison Avenue. There was a massive diet experiment that many other countries really didn’t see to a great extent, e.g. replacing the traditional bacon and eggs breakfast with packaged cereal, whole milk with orange juice for breakfast, butter with trans-fat margarine and lard with hydrogenated vegetable fat. Just the milk to orange juice transition probably inflicted huge casualties (“A day without orange juice is like a day without sunshine!”). Removing fats from packaged foods in general and replacing them with high-fructose corn sweetener was the icing on the cake, so to speak.

    The resulting epidemic of fatty-liver disease hit this white cohort pretty hard, not to mention the chronic aches and pains from joint inflammation. The blacks didn’t have this problem to a great extent because they didn’t really change their diets that much. And the Mexicans were mostly oblivious to the marketing pitch of the Florida citrus industry and the packaged cereal companies during the period. Once you get these inflammatory diseases they are tough to get rid of without fasts and low-carb diets to flush the visceral fat out of the body. Only in recent years have these diets been accepted by the medical establishment as a solution to the problem. Meanwhile, the medical establishment and pharmaceutical industry developed all kinds of nice painkillers to deal with the symptoms of these chronic conditions. You guys can fit your own curve through these data points to get where we are today.

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  35. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:

    Well….I know a guy isn’t social science but…..I know a guy who died in 2008 ostensibly of a heart attack but I think it was alcohol poisoning. He was 58, so born 1950. He was married, but for the 2nd time, and I don’t think he ever got over the breakup of his first marriage. Blue collar worker – employed. Hard drinker but not an alcoholic. So far, so normal.

    Dig deeper, he was a Vietnam vet, Marine Corps. (1968-1969, oh boy.) I wonder what percentage of these guys dying now saw combat in the Nam. Just wondering.

    You’ve written many times that the WWC in the US has managed to stave off the anarchy that has beset the WWC in UK; I wonder if this is true. The anarchy has happened, just more quietly. The British WWC is very theatrical. The British reputation of being understated is a Hollywood fantasy. They are very theatrical people.

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  36. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:
    @pvm
    Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

    Read Charles Murray's Coming Apart for how this cohort has changed since 1970. In addition, 45-54 is the peak suicide age for males.

    Poor whites are like the Pine Ridge Reservation Indians that Steve sometimes mentions.

    Another point is that downscale blacks have seen a greater erosion of their economic status since 2000, but they don't kill themselves in response. The Suicide Gene is a feature of high latitude populations alone (Nordic whites, Indians, Arctic tribes, Lapps, Japanese, Siberian)

    Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

    The question is why are less educated whites dying in greater #s than less educated blacks?

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    I'm not sure that they are. Claiming "lower class whites are dying younger now than in the past" is not the same as saying "lower class whites are dying younger than lower class blacks are."
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  37. Read More
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  38. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    The only neocon who seems to Get It on immigration, David Frum, wrote an overlooked book (How We Got Here: The 70′s: The Decade That Brought You Modern Life—For Better or Worse) in 2000 that had this as a major part of its thesis. Basically Frum says that 1973 +/- 1 year represented the “IPO” of the Sixties–that the cultural manifestations of that decade had pretty much contained to a tiny sliver (1-2%) of the population during the actual 60s, but that short period of the early days of the next decade is when it had its big Breakout into the American Middle Class. If 1968-1972 was the tenuous Normandy beachhead, 1973 was the rapid advance to Paris and the Siegfried Line.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.
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  39. I’m 47 (born in 1968) and I’ll throw this out:

    The 1980s, when my generation turned 18, was the decade of the backlash against destructive 60s-70s behaviors.

    “Just say no!” to drugs.

    Sexual “liberation” might get you AIDS if you’re not careful (or accused of rape — I believe this is when “No means No!” started).

    The drinking age was raised, almost overnight, from 18 in many places to 21 just about everywhere.

    I was at the famously libertine UW – Madison from 1987-1991 and it was during the 80s that the crackdown on Halloween took place (mostly due rise in the drinking age) as well as raucous behavior at football games (after fans tossed a section of bleachers over the edge of the stadium).

    In short — and this is anecdotal and speaking only for “my group” — I don’t think it’s drinking or illegal drugs which has caused an uptick in premature deaths in my generation. I think it’s the general “alienation” theme already discussed in the comments above: Loss of blue collar jobs, a decrease in fulfilling family life, degenerate culture, etc.

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    • Replies: @Bugg
    Was born in 1964. Drinking age in NY state during my college years went from 18, then 19, then 21. It's a small thing, but sent a message to young law and government are nothing more than a zero sum game of nonsense. Not the reason things went to hell, but let us all know government is often complete bullshit. College students are still to this day drinking, they are now and have been scofflaws.

    To say nothing of affirmative action. Every white person since 1970 has a story abut a civil service job or college admission impacted by more nonsense. Or working with unqualified AA folks. Again, corrosive to accepting government as legitimate.
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  40. @jackson
    Arguing against that hypothesis is that this is restricted to American whites. Death rates among the same age group in Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Britain & Sweden have been really dropping. I'd think the 60s drug culture would have existed in those places as well.

    Also, from personal experience: nearly every time that drugs were offered to me in my childhood in the mid-late 70s were by NAMs, although my area was 75-80% white, but NAM death rates are dropping now.

    Maybe Americans took to drugs heavily (compared to Britain, Germany etc) because American beer in those days was utter rubbish.

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    • Agree: Brutusale
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    because American beer in those days was utter rubbish
     
    Most of it still is. In fact, much if it isn't even beer at all. The 'light' or 'lite' beers are diluted malt liquor. Perhaps that accounts for continued heavy drug use?
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  41. advancedatheist [AKA "RedneckCryonicist"] says:

    How do death rates for white men in that demographic compare with white men who belong to Adventist and Mormon churches?

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  42. All of the factors listed in the original AP article and in your own two posts about the matter are valid.

    However, all these things are converging on a generation of human beings (Generation X) that are, by default and by nature, the most cynical generation of human beings in the history of human civilization, notwithstanding anything that happens in the world around them and the world does to them to make them that way.

    It’s a a volatile stew.

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    • Replies: @BB753
    @ countenance..
    Where do you think Generation Xers are heading? Decay or revolt?
    , @Bleuteaux
    Right. It's become a low-trust culture.
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  43. WGG [AKA "World\'s Greatest Grandson"] says:

    Liver poisoning = Tylenol (paracetamol).

    A lot of those opiate derivative pills have Tylenol in them, and when taken daily or in large quantities, will ruin your liver. People would be better off chasing the dragon then taking the crap the stooge doctors are pushing.

    Also, pain is normal. Chronic pain is normal for middle aged people and older. It becomes mentally unbearable if a person doesn’t have a good and loving support system/ family. People no longer have strong marriages and strong families because the culture is POZ’d. I have no clue how American patriotism is still a thing. We have nothing to be proud of anymore except our long-past history. I, unlike some who post here, was born into a degenerate culture, and I’m definitely bitter about it. Thanks, Boomers! I’ll try not to cry too hard for your crap health.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That happened to Kenny Easley, the UCLA / Seattle defensive back. He didn't want to get hooked on prescription painkillers so he just took lots and lots of drugstore Tylenol. It wrecked his liver.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson
    You may be right about paracetamol but you are wrong about American patriotism.

    Consider Solzhenitsyn, who was a Russian patriot in the face of the USSR's depravity. The USSR's realization of Marx's vision of terror did not diminish Solzhenitsyn's patriotism.

    Your fellow countrymen that have placed themselves, and place themselves, in harm's way to defend us have earned our gratitude, our respect and our admiration. Even if it is not acknowledged and even if our liberty has been constricted to the point of choking us nearly to death.

    Do not focus on the bootlickers on the left, or the 'transnationalists' on the right that have betrayed us. Focus on the 80% that are patriots and work with the rest of us to reverse the stupidity.

    The truth will prevail. The open question is how much needless pain and suffering must be endured until this most recent bout of insanity subsides. Help us bring in the end date and lower the curtain on the paroxysms of the Marxist true believers.
    , @SFG
    Countries have been through worse. No foreign army occupies us, the bastards can still be voted out. Also, the rest of Europe is just as degenerate.
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  44. @countenance
    All of the factors listed in the original AP article and in your own two posts about the matter are valid.

    However, all these things are converging on a generation of human beings (Generation X) that are, by default and by nature, the most cynical generation of human beings in the history of human civilization, notwithstanding anything that happens in the world around them and the world does to them to make them that way.

    It's a a volatile stew.

    @ countenance..
    Where do you think Generation Xers are heading? Decay or revolt?

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  45. @JayMan
    There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.

    See:

    Idiocracy Can Wait?

    (towards the bottom)

    Bullshit. It is clearly due to a decay in quality of life for a certain subgroup of whites. Life became harder for most, specially for lower-class and lower-middle-class whites, who are the most affected. Canary in the coal mine, etc.

    Also, it is not clear that people who are “less healthy, mentally and physically” (whatever it means) had always less children than smart people (Intelligence and fertility have always been inversely correlated, and even more in the Age of Contraception).

    Finally, if the Baby Boom made “less healthy” people more likely to have children, it would have made the “healthy” have even more children, so the proportion would not have changed as it did.

    Plus, other countries such as Canada, Sweden, etc, had a similar post-war baby boom, but only the US is showing an increase in death of middle-age whites. (for now, at least. maybe we will start seeing this phenomenon in Germany too as immigration and white displacement increase)

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    • Replies: @JayMan

    Finally, if the Baby Boom made “less healthy” people more likely to have children, it would have made the “healthy” have even more children, so the proportion would not have changed as it did.
     
    Only if you assume it was a rising tide that lifted all boats equally. There's absolutely no reason to make that assumption.

    During the Depression, the norm was great inequality in the number of children had by White women; 10% had 8 or more while 20% had none at all.

    During the Boom, the fraction childless fell to 5%. It's quite likely the bottom of the barrel disportionally benefitted during the Boom. Boomers would then less healthy than previous cohorts for that reason.
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  46. Wait a minute. Aren’t the higher death rates in the 45 to 54 age cohort?

    That is Gen X. The baby boomers partying too hard in the 70s doesn’t work at all.

    Plus this is happening a quarter century after the 70s ended.

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  47. In a generational sense, along with JayMan’s line of thought, I would consider the possibility that parental age surpassed some threshold above which the offspring would inevitably suffer consequences in old age.

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  48. That’s an amazing chart, but it’s an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    I’d like to see the same chart by sex, and for divorced men and women. I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

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    • Replies: @V Vega

    I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.
     
    From what I've seen, marriage is the killer for white men. When you think about it, divorce is just being married without the bitch actually living in your house. The money you have to throw into your divorced wife can readily replace the stress of marriage itself, sans the bitch.

    It seems, though our culture doesn't really need the horrible (for men) marriage contract, men do it anyway, and pay dearly for their mistake. Divorce just kicks the stress up a notch, but sans divorce, dealing with a female in the house from day to day, not to mention kids, has sucked the life force out of most married man I know, until they finally just give up, and wait for nature to reabsorb them, because of the lack of guts, or guilt stays their hand from doing what they'd like to do.

    It must be kind of stressful in itself to refrain from killing yourself simply because you don't want to traumatize your kids. I know quite a few "dead man walking" married types. Hoping you die soon can't be a relaxing day to day experience. Taking SRI's, as many married men do, to make you not care isn't great either, since they create brain damage, and speed you on your way to oblivion.

    In any case, it's marriage that kills. Divorce without alimony or child support gives a man's will to live another fighting chance.
    , @SFG
    Most common cause of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (which is the endpoint of most chronic liver disease) in the USA? Alcoholism.

    Sure, there's hepatitis B and C, but as those are also spread by intravenous drug use...

    They're ways you kill yourself in a way, say, Alzheimer's isn't. (Alzheimer's is the end result of *not* killing yourself...if you don't get heart disease at 65 or cancer at 75, you live to get Alzheimer's at 85.)
    , @Steve Sailer
    "That’s an amazing chart, but it’s an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?"

    They're just the big 3 that have gone up a lot in killing middle aged whites since 1998.
    , @Brutusale
    So would I.

    The 40- and 50-something age group I'm familiar with has a lot of single people in it. The dichotomy is the ones with the worst party habits are also looking for partners, so their bad behaviors are somewhat moderated by their efforts to stay in shape and remain attractive to the opposite sex.

    The ones who've given up on relationships, on the other hand, have no reason to eat right or stay in shape, and deteriorate accordingly.
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  49. We Boomers were promised that vast rewards would follow if we just learned to be ourselves– don’t sell out, don’t conform, don’t work for The Man. When we reached 50 we finally, reluctantly realized that was hokum and we’d blown it.

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    • Replies: @Honesthughgrant
    Certainly a lot of boomers did "Turn on, tune in, and drop out" - I don't think they were "promised" anything. Its more like they thought the gravy train would last forever. As Steve always points out, median wages for white males hit their peak in 1973 and have either gone down or stayed the same for almost 40 years.

    A lot of boomers have been able to drift through life because they got in on the ground floor of the real estate prices and the stock market. But many of them didn't, and they paid the price when they got to middle age.

    You only be 16 years old for so long. Unless you're a rock star.

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  50. What about hispanics checking themselves off as white? Wouldn’t that skew the data downward?

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  51. I like this theory a lot better than Steve’s other theory. Death by suicide or addiction is seen less as “the coward’s way out” by boomers than by previous generations. Less stigma attached to it culturally (and yes, people who commit suicide often care what other people think about them, even in death.)

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  52. Given the focus on liver issues it is surprising that no one has mentioned the impact of medications on the liver.

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  53. @countenance
    All of the factors listed in the original AP article and in your own two posts about the matter are valid.

    However, all these things are converging on a generation of human beings (Generation X) that are, by default and by nature, the most cynical generation of human beings in the history of human civilization, notwithstanding anything that happens in the world around them and the world does to them to make them that way.

    It's a a volatile stew.

    Right. It’s become a low-trust culture.

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  54. @Lugash
    That's an amazing chart, but it's an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    I'd like to see the same chart by sex, and for divorced men and women. I think I've read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

    I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

    From what I’ve seen, marriage is the killer for white men. When you think about it, divorce is just being married without the bitch actually living in your house. The money you have to throw into your divorced wife can readily replace the stress of marriage itself, sans the bitch.

    It seems, though our culture doesn’t really need the horrible (for men) marriage contract, men do it anyway, and pay dearly for their mistake. Divorce just kicks the stress up a notch, but sans divorce, dealing with a female in the house from day to day, not to mention kids, has sucked the life force out of most married man I know, until they finally just give up, and wait for nature to reabsorb them, because of the lack of guts, or guilt stays their hand from doing what they’d like to do.

    It must be kind of stressful in itself to refrain from killing yourself simply because you don’t want to traumatize your kids. I know quite a few “dead man walking” married types. Hoping you die soon can’t be a relaxing day to day experience. Taking SRI’s, as many married men do, to make you not care isn’t great either, since they create brain damage, and speed you on your way to oblivion.

    In any case, it’s marriage that kills. Divorce without alimony or child support gives a man’s will to live another fighting chance.

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    • Replies: @leper messiah
    From personal experience, I have to give kudos to Shane for his post. Absolutely nailed it.
    , @AndrewR
    Show us on the doll where the bad wife touched you.
    , @SFG
    I've heard this. Thing is, who takes care of your old carcass when you get decrepit?'

    I may still stay single, because I don't have the game to get a quality woman. But I do wonder.
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  55. As we learned from the TV show MASH, suicide is easy. And ubiquitous as stats show

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

    So there’s that, and as a cohort of Red Solid, I can say there’s a generalized disenchantment with
    Life amongst my peers and a subcutaneous death wish holdover from the glory days coupled with a realization that a decaying hippie generation body’s last great act of defiance is controlling the moment of death in some degree whether by signing a do-not-resuscitate document, imbibing substances as in olden days, eating like the exploding man in Monty Python’s, The Meaning of Life or simply by actively checking out in a personalized manner before the inevitable diseases that we watched our parents die slowly from overtake us before we have time to start le alone finish our bucket lists. Plenty of old folks can’t seem to accept the toils of time and fight back with guises and surgeries to appear young because their fear of death struggles against their longing for it. The realization by the last generation of literate true liberal arts course taking students that the dystopian authors and screenwriters were correct is bound to make a Boomer blue. Of course there’s plenty of us that hope for a pleasant surprise ending, unlikely as it seems, especially in light of the Camp of the Saints scenario playing out.

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    • Replies: @Spudwhite
    I'm 60, so guess I'm a Red Dash, not Solid. Anyway, I blame old eyes.
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  56. […] In the post above, I offer another factor as a theory, a generational […]

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  57. @Spudwhite
    As we learned from the TV show MASH, suicide is easy. And ubiquitous as stats show
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate
    So there's that, and as a cohort of Red Solid, I can say there's a generalized disenchantment with
    Life amongst my peers and a subcutaneous death wish holdover from the glory days coupled with a realization that a decaying hippie generation body's last great act of defiance is controlling the moment of death in some degree whether by signing a do-not-resuscitate document, imbibing substances as in olden days, eating like the exploding man in Monty Python's, The Meaning of Life or simply by actively checking out in a personalized manner before the inevitable diseases that we watched our parents die slowly from overtake us before we have time to start le alone finish our bucket lists. Plenty of old folks can't seem to accept the toils of time and fight back with guises and surgeries to appear young because their fear of death struggles against their longing for it. The realization by the last generation of literate true liberal arts course taking students that the dystopian authors and screenwriters were correct is bound to make a Boomer blue. Of course there's plenty of us that hope for a pleasant surprise ending, unlikely as it seems, especially in light of the Camp of the Saints scenario playing out.

    I’m 60, so guess I’m a Red Dash, not Solid. Anyway, I blame old eyes.

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  58. My eyesight must be getting worse, at first I thought that headline was “Is There a Genocidal Explanation for Rising White Death Rates?”, but then I remembered where I was and had to look again.

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  59. I was in high school from September 1970 through June 1974. I think that the tsunami of “sex, drugs and rock ‘n’ roll!” really hit Middle America, where I was living and going to school, during that time frame. The hairstyles of my male classmates went from mostly 1966-era Beatlesesque to mostly 1969-era Beatlesesque, in the few years between our entering high school and having our senior-year yearbook pictures taken, circa August 1973. When I was a senior, a classmate who was in Junior ROTC, and who had seemed nearly as straight of an arrow and as utterly unhip as I was, approached me in the hallway, between classes, opened up his coat, and said, “Hey…do you want to buy some grass?” It was the most-eye opening thing that ever happened to me in my four years of high school.

    In the spring of 1974, I registered and voted, as a 17-year-old, in the Indiana Democratic Party primary. My candidate, Dr. Floyd Fithian, a Purdue professor, went on, in November, to defeat my Republican Congressman, Earl Landgrebe– who had famously stated, earlier that year, in defense of President Nixon: “Don’t confuse me with the facts; my mind is made up!” Then, I graduated from high school, in early June; literally danced in the street, after Nixon’s televised address of August 8; started college, in late August; turned 18, in early October; and, reluctantly registered with Selective Service, in early November. If I were to pick out a cultural icon for American youth, in that personally eventful year of 1974, I think that it would be David Bowie’s fellow Brit, Elton John!?! Although I was not particularly a fan, some of my friends were, and Elton, in 1974, was probably as close to the Beatles’ mid-1960s status as any musical phenomenon of the mid-1970s, which simply did not produce a singular phenomenon like the Beatles, in 1964, or Elvis, in 1956, or Frankie, back during World War II. David Bowie, on the other hand, seemed to have a more cultish following, as did many rock-’n’-roll acts of that era.

    As for 1959, the pre-Army Elvis, at age 24, still ruled America’s youth culture– both on the air and in the movies! Buddy Holly, rest his soul, is most famous for having died so young, on February 3, 1959, along with the even-younger Mexican-American Ritchie Vallens, still only 17, and J. P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson, Jr., a relative old-timer, at age 28. Buddy Holly, during his short life and recording career, was never a cultural phenomenon, a la Elvis, for whom he had opened, and who had influenced Holly’s own musical evolution into a rock-’n’-roll performer.

    As for Frank Sinatra, he was the cultural phenomenon of 1943 et seq., when the bobby-soxers were in bloom. By 1954, when he famously won his Best Supporting Actor Oscar, shortly after having released his first LP for Capitol Records, marking his remarkable career comeback, he was no longer youthful, at age 38 (turning 39 in mid-December of that year), and no longer appealing to adolescents. His new audience was composed mostly of married folks, including former bobby soxers, and was increasingly male. He became a dominant star, in multiple fields, and a cultural icon of a very different type than had been young Frankie– “The Voice”– in the previous decade.

    I find it harder to pick a similar icon for 1969!?! I guess Jim “The Lizard King” Morrison would do, as well as any other….

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I remember it coming up when the Oliver Stone movie was released, that the Doors inhabited a smaller niche than we realize now, in context of the top-selling formats of the time, and probably wouldn't enjoy their present rep without a substantial posthumous following overseas (see also: Roy Orbison, the Velvets, the Stooges). Even today you hear Eastern European kids cite Jimbo (non-bearded-slob version) as distinctly representative of the American R&R spirit. "Pet Sounds" also had more popular & elite cred across the pond -- the early 70s are rightly remembered as the most philistinic and profit-squeezing era of the moribund U.S. record industry, in all racial segments, much as we try to retcon it as a time of listening to avant-folk, Arthur Lee, Kraftwerk, and the Silver Apples or something (and some of the popular stuff was good too, just rarer than you think).
    , @SFG
    Voting at 17? Wow. I should have looked into that. I cast my first vote at 21, though that's the way the election years ran.
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  60. I start in 1998 on the red, jump way up to blue, then further up to green and now to the peaking dashed red–it’s a miracle i’m still alive!

    But Steve, i don’t think your generational analysis is particular relevant here. The key point is all the lines are headed strongly up.

    Yeah, it’s true that the GenX guys are not pushing *up* the numbers in their 40s, to the extent that the boomers did. But they were pushing the death rate in their 30s. And even their 40s numbers haven’t dropped from the boomers level. And the lead millenials behind them have continued pushing the 30s numbers up. The bottom line here is up, up and up–all ages all generations.

    White people–or at least working class white people stripped of their jobs, the culture, their nation–are offing themselves.

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  61. The problem with studies like this — and virtually all are like this — is they go from exposing the trend to then “explaining” the trend and this is supposed to the inform nation-wide, uniform Federal policy. The Federal Government’s basic premise has become it is scientifically valid and ethically acceptable to impose treatments on non-consenting human subjects without so much as a control group, let alone placebo, let alone double-blind placebo. The authors of this study should posit _that_ as the cause of white death rates if they want to be treated as anything but accomplices in mass murder. The Federal Government makes Dr. Mengele look like a paragon of scientific integrity and ethics. Those who are willing to relocate to escape such experimentation on their persons should be the top priority of advocates of human rights.

    Sort proponents of social theories into governments that test them _before_ asking me to engage in “politics” with them to decide which social theory is “best”. That way there is some semblance of ethics — since there is _true_ consent — and there is some semblance of scientific integrity — since social theories are actually being tested in control groups. Once the population is no longer being treated against its will and once there is actual empirical data for the efficacy of various treatments recommended by their respective social theories, we can have polity. Not before.

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  62. @JayMan
    There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.

    See:

    Idiocracy Can Wait?

    (towards the bottom)

    Totally annecdotal, but I know several boomers personally who had really messed up parents who probably wouldn’t have had any kids if not for the post-war-prosperity. These people are pretty messed up themselves, and often suicidal or otherwise doing things likely to kill themselves.

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  63. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Something about this study just seems off. I could be wrong, but there doesn’t seem to be anything about American whites that isn’t also true of UK whites as far as constricted economic prospects, denigration by the elites, alcohol and drug abuse. Yet the death rate trends are in stark contrast. This study makes an extraordinary claim that requires review and replication.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Brits' life expectancies got longer in the 2000s. Maybe the British were living healthier lives, brushing their teeth, not working coalmines, that sort of thing?
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  64. @Jason
    Maybe the generational explanation is that he "Greatest Generation" remained silent as the country went from being 90% to majority Brown?

    They allowed WWII to be reframed as a war against "White racism" in the public mind and didn't correct the record. Because they liked being patted on the head as heroes so much.

    Then that same media-approved WWII generation gave a landslide to LBJ who declared a War On Poverty. Since then the AARP turned into a Beltway player and the suburbs got nice & pricey; as for poverty, it’s been kicking undereducated unretired meritless whites’ and blacks’ asses the whole way.

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  65. Strictly antecdotal, but at some point in the late 1980s/early 1990s 2 lines about middle and working class whites on a graph intersected catastrophically; economic stagnation coupled with decline in real wages, and increases in substance abuse, especially opiates. Big Pharma made a point of selling pain meds like soap. And right then heroin became a cheap street alternative that could be snorted rather than injected. Injecting drugs is something a junkie does. Snorting is comparatively sophisticated.

    Nick Dipalo has a routine how in the old days getting drugs in some awful neighborhood was dangerous, but now consists of finding a sleazy doctor who will write a bogus script and a trip to CVS.

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  66. http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/good-little-maoists/

    Off topic, but…if you have a few minutes….this is a wonderful scathing public reply from James Howard Kunstler (intellectual/blogger/leans hard left but skewers all sides basically) who was the recent victim of a social media attack from a Boston College professor. This person took him to task for comments he made at a private dinner (regarding the continued use of Ebonics, aided and abetted by the academics and the Left, and how this holds back the black race) that were, of course, “racist”, “showing white privilege”..etc.

    JHK, definitely now a race realist, rips back into the person who attacked him and is a wonderful example of how leftists are lined up in a circular firing squad that Steve often refers to.

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  67. I was 18 in 1970; we didn’t know it then, but that was about the peak for the US economy. It would crash and burn in September ’73 and basically be screwed up for the next 10 years. So if you hit the job market in the early ’70s or later, things were already starting to tighten up. And by the end of the Malaise Decade, a lot of us were still scrambling to put a career together.

    Wages peaked in ’73, and then did a slow slide down to about 25% less, that bottomed in ’83 and kind of plateaued for the rest of the next ten hears. The Clinton administration made a big deal about the wages finally getting back to the ’73 peak in ’99; but that was only because the female wages had gone up by more than 50%. Men’s wages still lagged where they had been in ’73. But you need to take that last bit with a grain of salt; the Labor department had inflated their numbers to keep the dot com bubble inflated. After Bush was in office, his Labor department was going to adjust the numbers down to closer to reality.

    It was especially bad because we had grown up during the 30 year postwar boom, and just when we get our chance to participate, they close the doors….

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  68. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @D. K.
    I was in high school from September 1970 through June 1974. I think that the tsunami of "sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll!" really hit Middle America, where I was living and going to school, during that time frame. The hairstyles of my male classmates went from mostly 1966-era Beatlesesque to mostly 1969-era Beatlesesque, in the few years between our entering high school and having our senior-year yearbook pictures taken, circa August 1973. When I was a senior, a classmate who was in Junior ROTC, and who had seemed nearly as straight of an arrow and as utterly unhip as I was, approached me in the hallway, between classes, opened up his coat, and said, "Hey...do you want to buy some grass?" It was the most-eye opening thing that ever happened to me in my four years of high school.

    In the spring of 1974, I registered and voted, as a 17-year-old, in the Indiana Democratic Party primary. My candidate, Dr. Floyd Fithian, a Purdue professor, went on, in November, to defeat my Republican Congressman, Earl Landgrebe-- who had famously stated, earlier that year, in defense of President Nixon: "Don't confuse me with the facts; my mind is made up!" Then, I graduated from high school, in early June; literally danced in the street, after Nixon's televised address of August 8; started college, in late August; turned 18, in early October; and, reluctantly registered with Selective Service, in early November. If I were to pick out a cultural icon for American youth, in that personally eventful year of 1974, I think that it would be David Bowie's fellow Brit, Elton John!?! Although I was not particularly a fan, some of my friends were, and Elton, in 1974, was probably as close to the Beatles' mid-1960s status as any musical phenomenon of the mid-1970s, which simply did not produce a singular phenomenon like the Beatles, in 1964, or Elvis, in 1956, or Frankie, back during World War II. David Bowie, on the other hand, seemed to have a more cultish following, as did many rock-'n'-roll acts of that era.

    As for 1959, the pre-Army Elvis, at age 24, still ruled America's youth culture-- both on the air and in the movies! Buddy Holly, rest his soul, is most famous for having died so young, on February 3, 1959, along with the even-younger Mexican-American Ritchie Vallens, still only 17, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson, Jr., a relative old-timer, at age 28. Buddy Holly, during his short life and recording career, was never a cultural phenomenon, a la Elvis, for whom he had opened, and who had influenced Holly's own musical evolution into a rock-'n'-roll performer.

    As for Frank Sinatra, he was the cultural phenomenon of 1943 et seq., when the bobby-soxers were in bloom. By 1954, when he famously won his Best Supporting Actor Oscar, shortly after having released his first LP for Capitol Records, marking his remarkable career comeback, he was no longer youthful, at age 38 (turning 39 in mid-December of that year), and no longer appealing to adolescents. His new audience was composed mostly of married folks, including former bobby soxers, and was increasingly male. He became a dominant star, in multiple fields, and a cultural icon of a very different type than had been young Frankie-- "The Voice"-- in the previous decade.

    I find it harder to pick a similar icon for 1969!?! I guess Jim "The Lizard King" Morrison would do, as well as any other....

    I remember it coming up when the Oliver Stone movie was released, that the Doors inhabited a smaller niche than we realize now, in context of the top-selling formats of the time, and probably wouldn’t enjoy their present rep without a substantial posthumous following overseas (see also: Roy Orbison, the Velvets, the Stooges). Even today you hear Eastern European kids cite Jimbo (non-bearded-slob version) as distinctly representative of the American R&R spirit. “Pet Sounds” also had more popular & elite cred across the pond — the early 70s are rightly remembered as the most philistinic and profit-squeezing era of the moribund U.S. record industry, in all racial segments, much as we try to retcon it as a time of listening to avant-folk, Arthur Lee, Kraftwerk, and the Silver Apples or something (and some of the popular stuff was good too, just rarer than you think).

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  69. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    In 2013 I was in the “green” cohort. My doctor called me into his office and explained that I had abnormal liver enzyme test results and a liver ultrasound that showed fat infiltration. I’ve drank my share of beers over the years, especially 1978-83 but I had never shown any signs of liver problems. He diagnosed “non-alcoholic fatty liver disease” and prescribed a six-week regimen of protein shakes and low-carb meals. The liver tests came back smack-dab in the middle of the control limits and a subsequent liver ultrasound confirmed the fat infiltration was gone. Subsequently, I have kept up a low-carb maintenance diet and the liver has remained clean. Not all liver problems are alcohol and drug related, many are related to an American diet riddled with high-fructose corn sweeteners and refined carbohydrates. I think this type of cryptic liver disease takes decades to present itself so younger people will start seeing it in their 50s also.

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  70. @SOBL
    I've seen demoralization and SCALE mentioned on Twitter and tend to agree. Whites might have a higher threshold for what a good life is so as they see it slipping away they get depressed and kill themselves. The heroin epidemic in rural America feeds on the same factors.

    Could obesity also be a factor? I know NAMs are even more obese and in greater numbers. NAMs have always been chunkier and now they have access to more life saving medical techniques than ever before (one way to employ whites is to keep them alive). Whites always had decent access to medicine, and our BMIs have exploded.

    I’ve seen demoralization and SCALE mentioned on Twitter and tend to agree.

    SCALE? Stands for?

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  71. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    The title sequence for the different seasons of the Brady Bunch gives some idea of middle-brow America’s evolution from square, to full-on groovy. Compare the father’s hair-do in the first season (1969) to the last (1973). The “afro-lite” was new for ’73. The year before, his hair had been only slightly shaggy. I bet if you plot the shift from plain slacks to knit bell-bottoms, you’d see roughly the same arc, at least for the adult characters.

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  72. Maybe it’s the moral vacuum of western malaise catching up to the US. Notice on the graph of death rates by country western Europeans saw a bump during the time frame where the EU was being formed and national currencies were being abandoned. We tend to lag the Europeans in adoption of post-modern, “progressive” ideas, as well as their consequences, but when we jump on the bandwagon we do it super-sized (take a look at our debt).

    We’ve killed God, the nation state, the nuclear family, anything that has traditionally given people meaning. Where blacks seem to have embraced this malaise as an opportunity for a carefree life of permanent unemployment checks and a handful of baby mamas, whites seem to suffer an existential crisis.

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    • Replies: @Clyde
    xxxyzzzzz
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  73. Steve can you delete my duplicate?

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  74. overdoses, killing yourself, and cirrhosis

    If it’s the natural consequence of an ongoing stealth genocide then the increase in death rates will follow the Canadian border law.

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  75. Not just America

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11965029/Middle-aged-male-suicide-rate-rises-by-40-per-cent-since-2008.html

    .

    Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    It’s people drinking themselves to death.

    .

    It’s totally obvious what is happening. This post and thread is a joke.

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  76. @JayMan
    There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.

    See:

    Idiocracy Can Wait?

    (towards the bottom)

    Great point. This is definitely one of the most compelling justifications behind “The Sixties”, and I’ve never seen it brought up anywhere else.

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  77. @pvm
    Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

    Read Charles Murray's Coming Apart for how this cohort has changed since 1970. In addition, 45-54 is the peak suicide age for males.

    Poor whites are like the Pine Ridge Reservation Indians that Steve sometimes mentions.

    Another point is that downscale blacks have seen a greater erosion of their economic status since 2000, but they don't kill themselves in response. The Suicide Gene is a feature of high latitude populations alone (Nordic whites, Indians, Arctic tribes, Lapps, Japanese, Siberian)

    One interesting effect is that contrary to expectations, neuroticism is actually inversely correlated with suicide. People from Northern climates are more likely to have co-evolved with “dignity cultures” instead of “honor cultures”. Northern Europeans are statistically less neurotic than other groups, particularly in regards to the introspective sub-facets, like anxiety and self-consciousness.

    Groups which evolved under weak states have to constantly be projecting an image of no weakness to dissuade would-be exploiters. Northern Europeans and Japanese have lived under the rule of law for centuries, they can afford to focus less on external image because they can appeal to a strong authority if victimized.

    Since suicide is negatively correlated with agreeableness as well, we can conclude that these internal neurotic sub-facets have very high predictiveness with regards to suicide. Neurotic people seem to think about suicide more, but commit suicide less. I’d posit that this is largely because of anxiety about how others would perceive their suicide. That is Europeans commit suicide more than Africans because they care less about what others will think of them.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21082452

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  78. @Lugash
    That's an amazing chart, but it's an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    I'd like to see the same chart by sex, and for divorced men and women. I think I've read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

    Most common cause of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (which is the endpoint of most chronic liver disease) in the USA? Alcoholism.

    Sure, there’s hepatitis B and C, but as those are also spread by intravenous drug use…

    They’re ways you kill yourself in a way, say, Alzheimer’s isn’t. (Alzheimer’s is the end result of *not* killing yourself…if you don’t get heart disease at 65 or cancer at 75, you live to get Alzheimer’s at 85.)

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  79. This is really interesting analysis, Steve.

    I’m right on the blue line (45-49) for 2013, i.e. I graduated from high school in 1984.

    A couple of observations.

    Maybe this is just narcicism talking, but I really do see a difference between my cohort and the late boomers who are maybe 5-7 years older, i.e. those born around 1960 or so. I have numerous friends and relatives in that age range, and they do seem to have a deeper faith in human institutions than I have ever had; there’s a glimmer of a ‘we can still fix this if we just . . . !’ optimism that I think is less common in my immediate peers.

    But then what explains the anomolous downturn in the blue line’s mortality in recent years? Religious conversions? Stoic acceptance of the deep unfairness of the ways in which my generation got screwed over, compared with the core boomers? Later-life realization that actually believing liberal claptrap is the road to despair, followed by attendance at Tea Party events?

    I’m curious what others in this group think.

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  80. @WGG
    Liver poisoning = Tylenol (paracetamol).


    A lot of those opiate derivative pills have Tylenol in them, and when taken daily or in large quantities, will ruin your liver. People would be better off chasing the dragon then taking the crap the stooge doctors are pushing.

    Also, pain is normal. Chronic pain is normal for middle aged people and older. It becomes mentally unbearable if a person doesn't have a good and loving support system/ family. People no longer have strong marriages and strong families because the culture is POZ'd. I have no clue how American patriotism is still a thing. We have nothing to be proud of anymore except our long-past history. I, unlike some who post here, was born into a degenerate culture, and I'm definitely bitter about it. Thanks, Boomers! I'll try not to cry too hard for your crap health.

    That happened to Kenny Easley, the UCLA / Seattle defensive back. He didn’t want to get hooked on prescription painkillers so he just took lots and lots of drugstore Tylenol. It wrecked his liver.

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    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    That happened to Kenny Easley, the UCLA / Seattle defensive back. He didn’t want to get hooked on prescription painkillers so he just took lots and lots of drugstore Tylenol. It wrecked his liver.
     
    Same basic idea, but for Easley it was actually Advil and his kidneys. (One of my work friends is married to his sister.)

    Tylenol and Advil are both definitely "stay within the lines" OTC meds.

    I believe they had some issues with different strengths (per unit volume) between "infant" and "child" formulas of Tylenol and maybe Advil too, that led to infant overdoses and liver\kidney damage and a few infant deaths. And there was a move to try and make the suspensions the same.
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  81. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    Having taught high school and seen the chronology of graduation class portraits of many a school, I can confirm that in the rural South, that is when the change happened. It’s so obvious that I’ve noticed it for years. In composite after composite, the appearance of the students changes dramatically in 1972.

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    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    the appearance of the students changes dramatically in 1972

     

    Coincidentally, the year TFR declined to below maintanence level.
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  82. @The Man From K Street

    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don’t know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.
     
    The only neocon who seems to Get It on immigration, David Frum, wrote an overlooked book (How We Got Here: The 70's: The Decade That Brought You Modern Life—For Better or Worse) in 2000 that had this as a major part of its thesis. Basically Frum says that 1973 +/- 1 year represented the "IPO" of the Sixties--that the cultural manifestations of that decade had pretty much contained to a tiny sliver (1-2%) of the population during the actual 60s, but that short period of the early days of the next decade is when it had its big Breakout into the American Middle Class. If 1968-1972 was the tenuous Normandy beachhead, 1973 was the rapid advance to Paris and the Siegfried Line.

    Thanks. And I’d wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn’t the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don’t know how to test that, though.

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    • Replies: @Doug
    According to Google ngrams the usage of the terms psychedelic, groovy and hippie peaked in 1971/1972. That's a strong argument for the 1972-1979 representing a distinct cultural phase, rather than simply a heartland expansion of coastal 1967-1971 culture. Read Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and HST is pretty convinced by 1972 that the tide of the 60s is already well in retreat.
    , @D. K.
    LBJ died, in a helicopter, en route to the hospital, that very afternoon-- and he, too, already had let his hair grow out wildly, as if to let the youngsters who had driven him from office know that he really understood where they were coming from...!?! (He would have left office, just fifty-some hours earlier, if he had continued with his 1968 re-election campaign, and beaten Dick Nixon.) Of course, he smoked and drank himself to death, pretty much; even as president, he abused himself in much the same manner, if to a somewhat less-egregious degree, when he actually had work to get done. (From his death until Nixon's resignation's taking effect, barely a year and a half later, by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)
    , @AnotherDad

    Thanks. And I’d wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn’t the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don’t know how to test that, though.
     
    I remember it well to this day. Saw the news--we still had an old B+W TV (my parents bought a color one later that year, all part of the crazy times)--LBJ had died and the supremes had legalized abortion. Say what? And even as teenager i thought "what a load of utter bullshit, abortion is not a constitutional right". We were clearly on a slippery slope were there is no democracy but courts just decree what a certain elite has decided. It was a crazy day.
    , @Reg Cæsar


    Thanks. And I’d wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn’t the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don’t know how to test that, though.

     

    Well-known fact: New York legalized abortion in 1970. Much lesser-known fact: New York's legislature voted to repeal that law in 1972.

    So even the (ostensibly) most pro-abortion states were still seriously divided in 1972.

    Also, don't forget that the voting age had just been lowered. It was the first time 20-year-olds could vote in 46 states, 18-year-olds in 49.
    , @James Kabala
    It is strange to think that other countries legalized abortion in years other than 1973. 1973 seems like the right year - not the morally right year (that would be the year Never), but the dramatically right year. Legalized abortion as early as 1967 (Britain) or not until 1978 (Italy) seems off. 1975 (France) is fairly close.
    , @Brutusale
    As well as the Bobby Riggs/Billie Jean King match, 9/20/1973, and the invasion of the workplace by women.

    Coincidence?
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  83. @Anonymous
    Something about this study just seems off. I could be wrong, but there doesn't seem to be anything about American whites that isn't also true of UK whites as far as constricted economic prospects, denigration by the elites, alcohol and drug abuse. Yet the death rate trends are in stark contrast. This study makes an extraordinary claim that requires review and replication.

    Brits’ life expectancies got longer in the 2000s. Maybe the British were living healthier lives, brushing their teeth, not working coalmines, that sort of thing?

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  84. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    Looking through decades of photographs of children at the Hutton Settlement (an orphanage in Spokane that still exists), I noticed that the kids’ clothing started to look really, really bad in the 1980s. There was a dramatic shift from plain, respectable clothing to cheap ill-fitting t-shirts covered with logos and text. They had the appearance of perfectly typical 80s kids, but it was hard to look at them after looking at the kids from earlier decades. It looked like people had just stopped caring. Have we ever recovered from that?

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  85. @V Vega

    I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.
     
    From what I've seen, marriage is the killer for white men. When you think about it, divorce is just being married without the bitch actually living in your house. The money you have to throw into your divorced wife can readily replace the stress of marriage itself, sans the bitch.

    It seems, though our culture doesn't really need the horrible (for men) marriage contract, men do it anyway, and pay dearly for their mistake. Divorce just kicks the stress up a notch, but sans divorce, dealing with a female in the house from day to day, not to mention kids, has sucked the life force out of most married man I know, until they finally just give up, and wait for nature to reabsorb them, because of the lack of guts, or guilt stays their hand from doing what they'd like to do.

    It must be kind of stressful in itself to refrain from killing yourself simply because you don't want to traumatize your kids. I know quite a few "dead man walking" married types. Hoping you die soon can't be a relaxing day to day experience. Taking SRI's, as many married men do, to make you not care isn't great either, since they create brain damage, and speed you on your way to oblivion.

    In any case, it's marriage that kills. Divorce without alimony or child support gives a man's will to live another fighting chance.

    From personal experience, I have to give kudos to Shane for his post. Absolutely nailed it.

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  86. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    According to Google ngrams the usage of the terms psychedelic, groovy and hippie peaked in 1971/1972. That’s a strong argument for the 1972-1979 representing a distinct cultural phase, rather than simply a heartland expansion of coastal 1967-1971 culture. Read Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and HST is pretty convinced by 1972 that the tide of the 60s is already well in retreat.

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  87. […] See Steve Sailer’s look at the steep rise in the suicide rates among middle-aged Whites HERE. […]

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  88. @WhatEvvs

    Razib Khan points out that the rising death rates is exclusive to downscale whites.

     

    The question is why are less educated whites dying in greater #s than less educated blacks?

    I’m not sure that they are. Claiming “lower class whites are dying younger now than in the past” is not the same as saying “lower class whites are dying younger than lower class blacks are.”

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    • Replies: @WhatEvvs
    Right, thanks.
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  89. @Patrick in SC
    I'm 47 (born in 1968) and I'll throw this out:

    The 1980s, when my generation turned 18, was the decade of the backlash against destructive 60s-70s behaviors.

    "Just say no!" to drugs.

    Sexual "liberation" might get you AIDS if you're not careful (or accused of rape --- I believe this is when "No means No!" started).

    The drinking age was raised, almost overnight, from 18 in many places to 21 just about everywhere.

    I was at the famously libertine UW - Madison from 1987-1991 and it was during the 80s that the crackdown on Halloween took place (mostly due rise in the drinking age) as well as raucous behavior at football games (after fans tossed a section of bleachers over the edge of the stadium).

    In short --- and this is anecdotal and speaking only for "my group" --- I don't think it's drinking or illegal drugs which has caused an uptick in premature deaths in my generation. I think it's the general "alienation" theme already discussed in the comments above: Loss of blue collar jobs, a decrease in fulfilling family life, degenerate culture, etc.

    Was born in 1964. Drinking age in NY state during my college years went from 18, then 19, then 21. It’s a small thing, but sent a message to young law and government are nothing more than a zero sum game of nonsense. Not the reason things went to hell, but let us all know government is often complete bullshit. College students are still to this day drinking, they are now and have been scofflaws.

    To say nothing of affirmative action. Every white person since 1970 has a story abut a civil service job or college admission impacted by more nonsense. Or working with unqualified AA folks. Again, corrosive to accepting government as legitimate.

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  90. @V Vega

    I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.
     
    From what I've seen, marriage is the killer for white men. When you think about it, divorce is just being married without the bitch actually living in your house. The money you have to throw into your divorced wife can readily replace the stress of marriage itself, sans the bitch.

    It seems, though our culture doesn't really need the horrible (for men) marriage contract, men do it anyway, and pay dearly for their mistake. Divorce just kicks the stress up a notch, but sans divorce, dealing with a female in the house from day to day, not to mention kids, has sucked the life force out of most married man I know, until they finally just give up, and wait for nature to reabsorb them, because of the lack of guts, or guilt stays their hand from doing what they'd like to do.

    It must be kind of stressful in itself to refrain from killing yourself simply because you don't want to traumatize your kids. I know quite a few "dead man walking" married types. Hoping you die soon can't be a relaxing day to day experience. Taking SRI's, as many married men do, to make you not care isn't great either, since they create brain damage, and speed you on your way to oblivion.

    In any case, it's marriage that kills. Divorce without alimony or child support gives a man's will to live another fighting chance.

    Show us on the doll where the bad wife touched you.

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  91. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    LBJ died, in a helicopter, en route to the hospital, that very afternoon– and he, too, already had let his hair grow out wildly, as if to let the youngsters who had driven him from office know that he really understood where they were coming from…!?! (He would have left office, just fifty-some hours earlier, if he had continued with his 1968 re-election campaign, and beaten Dick Nixon.) Of course, he smoked and drank himself to death, pretty much; even as president, he abused himself in much the same manner, if to a somewhat less-egregious degree, when he actually had work to get done. (From his death until Nixon’s resignation’s taking effect, barely a year and a half later, by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)

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    • Replies: @Honesthughgrant
    LBJ had a massive heart attack in his 40s and just survived through luck. He had to give up smoking. I don't think he was ever an alcoholic. But he came from that generation, that smoked, drank, didn't exercise and ate all the wrong foods.
    , @AnotherDad

    ... by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)
     
    It was actually the first time in 100 years. I think--and just checked to verify--that everyone prior was dead when Andrew Johnson died during Grant's term. Prior to that you need to go back to John Adams.

    Now we have a passel of these clowns, though Bush and Carter are roughly my dad's age and probably won't be around in five years. But given life expectancy these days these boomer presidents will be sucking down a pension for years and years to come.
    , @Hapalong Cassidy
    Off the top of my head and not Googling, George Washington died while John Adams was in office, so that may have been the only other time in which there were zero living former Presidents. And John Adams lived for quite a long time after he led office. Which leads to another trivia question - has Jimmy Carter lived longer after leaving office than any other President?
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  92. @D. K.
    I was in high school from September 1970 through June 1974. I think that the tsunami of "sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll!" really hit Middle America, where I was living and going to school, during that time frame. The hairstyles of my male classmates went from mostly 1966-era Beatlesesque to mostly 1969-era Beatlesesque, in the few years between our entering high school and having our senior-year yearbook pictures taken, circa August 1973. When I was a senior, a classmate who was in Junior ROTC, and who had seemed nearly as straight of an arrow and as utterly unhip as I was, approached me in the hallway, between classes, opened up his coat, and said, "Hey...do you want to buy some grass?" It was the most-eye opening thing that ever happened to me in my four years of high school.

    In the spring of 1974, I registered and voted, as a 17-year-old, in the Indiana Democratic Party primary. My candidate, Dr. Floyd Fithian, a Purdue professor, went on, in November, to defeat my Republican Congressman, Earl Landgrebe-- who had famously stated, earlier that year, in defense of President Nixon: "Don't confuse me with the facts; my mind is made up!" Then, I graduated from high school, in early June; literally danced in the street, after Nixon's televised address of August 8; started college, in late August; turned 18, in early October; and, reluctantly registered with Selective Service, in early November. If I were to pick out a cultural icon for American youth, in that personally eventful year of 1974, I think that it would be David Bowie's fellow Brit, Elton John!?! Although I was not particularly a fan, some of my friends were, and Elton, in 1974, was probably as close to the Beatles' mid-1960s status as any musical phenomenon of the mid-1970s, which simply did not produce a singular phenomenon like the Beatles, in 1964, or Elvis, in 1956, or Frankie, back during World War II. David Bowie, on the other hand, seemed to have a more cultish following, as did many rock-'n'-roll acts of that era.

    As for 1959, the pre-Army Elvis, at age 24, still ruled America's youth culture-- both on the air and in the movies! Buddy Holly, rest his soul, is most famous for having died so young, on February 3, 1959, along with the even-younger Mexican-American Ritchie Vallens, still only 17, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson, Jr., a relative old-timer, at age 28. Buddy Holly, during his short life and recording career, was never a cultural phenomenon, a la Elvis, for whom he had opened, and who had influenced Holly's own musical evolution into a rock-'n'-roll performer.

    As for Frank Sinatra, he was the cultural phenomenon of 1943 et seq., when the bobby-soxers were in bloom. By 1954, when he famously won his Best Supporting Actor Oscar, shortly after having released his first LP for Capitol Records, marking his remarkable career comeback, he was no longer youthful, at age 38 (turning 39 in mid-December of that year), and no longer appealing to adolescents. His new audience was composed mostly of married folks, including former bobby soxers, and was increasingly male. He became a dominant star, in multiple fields, and a cultural icon of a very different type than had been young Frankie-- "The Voice"-- in the previous decade.

    I find it harder to pick a similar icon for 1969!?! I guess Jim "The Lizard King" Morrison would do, as well as any other....

    Voting at 17? Wow. I should have looked into that. I cast my first vote at 21, though that’s the way the election years ran.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    Indiana let us vote in the primary, at 17, as long as we were due to turn 18, on or before Election Day, the following November. That was two years after those aged 18-20 were allowed to vote, for the first time in a federal election, in 1972. "Lotta water under the bridge," as Sam once noted to Ilsa....
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  93. @dearieme
    Maybe Americans took to drugs heavily (compared to Britain, Germany etc) because American beer in those days was utter rubbish.

    because American beer in those days was utter rubbish

    Most of it still is. In fact, much if it isn’t even beer at all. The ‘light’ or ‘lite’ beers are diluted malt liquor. Perhaps that accounts for continued heavy drug use?

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  94. @WGG
    Liver poisoning = Tylenol (paracetamol).


    A lot of those opiate derivative pills have Tylenol in them, and when taken daily or in large quantities, will ruin your liver. People would be better off chasing the dragon then taking the crap the stooge doctors are pushing.

    Also, pain is normal. Chronic pain is normal for middle aged people and older. It becomes mentally unbearable if a person doesn't have a good and loving support system/ family. People no longer have strong marriages and strong families because the culture is POZ'd. I have no clue how American patriotism is still a thing. We have nothing to be proud of anymore except our long-past history. I, unlike some who post here, was born into a degenerate culture, and I'm definitely bitter about it. Thanks, Boomers! I'll try not to cry too hard for your crap health.

    You may be right about paracetamol but you are wrong about American patriotism.

    Consider Solzhenitsyn, who was a Russian patriot in the face of the USSR’s depravity. The USSR’s realization of Marx’s vision of terror did not diminish Solzhenitsyn’s patriotism.

    Your fellow countrymen that have placed themselves, and place themselves, in harm’s way to defend us have earned our gratitude, our respect and our admiration. Even if it is not acknowledged and even if our liberty has been constricted to the point of choking us nearly to death.

    Do not focus on the bootlickers on the left, or the ‘transnationalists’ on the right that have betrayed us. Focus on the 80% that are patriots and work with the rest of us to reverse the stupidity.

    The truth will prevail. The open question is how much needless pain and suffering must be endured until this most recent bout of insanity subsides. Help us bring in the end date and lower the curtain on the paroxysms of the Marxist true believers.

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  95. @SFG
    Voting at 17? Wow. I should have looked into that. I cast my first vote at 21, though that's the way the election years ran.

    Indiana let us vote in the primary, at 17, as long as we were due to turn 18, on or before Election Day, the following November. That was two years after those aged 18-20 were allowed to vote, for the first time in a federal election, in 1972. “Lotta water under the bridge,” as Sam once noted to Ilsa….

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    Actually, I think that one or more states had allowed those aged 18-20 to vote, prior to the federal amendment that made it obligatory, nationwide, absent some personal disqualification (e.g., a felony conviction, or a severe mental impairment)!?!
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  96. @robot
    We Boomers were promised that vast rewards would follow if we just learned to be ourselves-- don't sell out, don't conform, don't work for The Man. When we reached 50 we finally, reluctantly realized that was hokum and we'd blown it.

    Certainly a lot of boomers did “Turn on, tune in, and drop out” – I don’t think they were “promised” anything. Its more like they thought the gravy train would last forever. As Steve always points out, median wages for white males hit their peak in 1973 and have either gone down or stayed the same for almost 40 years.

    A lot of boomers have been able to drift through life because they got in on the ground floor of the real estate prices and the stock market. But many of them didn’t, and they paid the price when they got to middle age.

    You only be 16 years old for so long. Unless you’re a rock star.

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    @Honesthughgrant
    "I don’t think they were “promised” anything." That can only be because you're thinking with your mind closed. Every sort of huckster is (still) promising every sort of payoff if you believe/obey, but in the 60s/70s there was a unanimity among the respected gurus (spiritual and artistic) that enlightenment would make every moment ecstatic, and buying in to the Establishment was soul-death. You're contemptuously dismissing it as partying/freeloading but that was just one end of a spectrum that included lots of honorable seekers.
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  97. @D. K.
    Indiana let us vote in the primary, at 17, as long as we were due to turn 18, on or before Election Day, the following November. That was two years after those aged 18-20 were allowed to vote, for the first time in a federal election, in 1972. "Lotta water under the bridge," as Sam once noted to Ilsa....

    Actually, I think that one or more states had allowed those aged 18-20 to vote, prior to the federal amendment that made it obligatory, nationwide, absent some personal disqualification (e.g., a felony conviction, or a severe mental impairment)!?!

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  98. You if want an example of two boomers who’ve drifted through life – look at Reagan’s Kids. Patti born 1952, Ron Reagan born 1958. Both college drop outs, RR jr. dropped out of Harvard to be a ballet dancer, Patti dropped out of college, dropped a lot of acid, hooked up with some Rock and Roll stars. Neither has accomplished anything. Neither has kids. Both are now single (RR a widow, he married a women 7 years older, Patti divorced her Yoga instructor 20 years ago).

    Both have spent their whole lives living off the fact they are Reagan’s Kids. They’re probably doing well financially though and no doubt will inherit a lot of expensive real estate when Nancy dies.

    Typical boomers.

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    • Replies: @James Kabala
    The kids not raised by Ronald are the ones who stayed conservative (or at least Republican - Maureen was relatively liberal during her failed political career and I believe also had no children). I always thought that was interesting.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    FFRF Ron Reagan Ad
    Freedom From Religion Foundation

     

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  99. @D. K.
    LBJ died, in a helicopter, en route to the hospital, that very afternoon-- and he, too, already had let his hair grow out wildly, as if to let the youngsters who had driven him from office know that he really understood where they were coming from...!?! (He would have left office, just fifty-some hours earlier, if he had continued with his 1968 re-election campaign, and beaten Dick Nixon.) Of course, he smoked and drank himself to death, pretty much; even as president, he abused himself in much the same manner, if to a somewhat less-egregious degree, when he actually had work to get done. (From his death until Nixon's resignation's taking effect, barely a year and a half later, by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)

    LBJ had a massive heart attack in his 40s and just survived through luck. He had to give up smoking. I don’t think he was ever an alcoholic. But he came from that generation, that smoked, drank, didn’t exercise and ate all the wrong foods.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    He apparently started smoking again, after he left the presidency. As I recall, from the PBS series on the former presidents, someone who was fairly close to him politically was quoted on camera saying that he had essentially taken to drinking heavily, after he left the White House, along with his smoking again, because he apparently had lost the will to live, once he no longer had the entire Free World to run, and to occupy his time and his mind!?! He reportedly had an actuarial study done, after leaving office, that predicted that he would likely die at age 64-- and, he did, just over seven months before he would have hit 65. Without bothering to look further, just now, here is what Wikipedia.org has to say:

    ***

    In March 1970, Johnson suffered an attack of angina and was taken to Brooke Army General Hospital on Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio. He was urged to lose a considerable amount of weight. Johnson had grown dangerously heavier since leaving the White House, gaining more than 25 pounds (11 kg) and weighing around 235 pounds (107 kg). He had also resumed smoking after nearly fifteen years without having done so, which contributed further to his health problems. The following summer, again gripped by chest pains, he embarked on a crash water diet, shedding about 15 pounds (6.8 kg) in less than a month. In April 1972, Johnson fell victim to a second heart attack while visiting his daughter, Lynda, in Charlottesville, Virginia. "I'm hurting real bad," he confided to friends. The chest pains hit him nearly every afternoon—a series of sharp, jolting pains that left him scared and breathless. A portable oxygen tank stood next to his bed, and he periodically interrupted what he was doing to lie down and don the mask to gulp air. He continued to smoke heavily, and, although placed on a low-calorie, low-cholesterol diet, kept to it only in fits and starts. Meanwhile, he began experiencing severe stomach pains. Doctors diagnosed this problem as diverticulosis, pouches forming on the intestine. His condition rapidly worsened and surgery was recommended, so Johnson flew to Houston to consult with heart specialist Dr. Michael DeBakey. DeBakey discovered that even though two of the former President's coronary arteries were critically damaged, the overall condition of his heart was so poor that even attempting a bypass surgery would likely result in fatal complications.[244]

    ***
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  100. @Lugash
    That's an amazing chart, but it's an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    I'd like to see the same chart by sex, and for divorced men and women. I think I've read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

    “That’s an amazing chart, but it’s an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?”

    They’re just the big 3 that have gone up a lot in killing middle aged whites since 1998.

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  101. @George Glass
    Look, blaming sex, drugs, abortion, liberalism, pc, and immigration all clearly run against the ethnic and national comparisons. Europeans had similar experiences with sex, drugs, and immigration. Blacks had nearly identical experiences with sex, drugs, and immigration. So the real beginning of the solution is what do poor American minorities share with poor European whites that distinguish them both from poor American whites?

    How about poor U.S. minorities and poor European whites are socialist while poor U.S. whites are libertarian? Poor U.S. whites have internalized their crappy economic situation instead of externalized it.

    How about poor U.S. minorities and poor European whites are socialist while poor U.S. whites are libertarian?

    No, among whites (and all other racial/ethnic groups) lower income means more Democrat, not more libertarian. Voting patterns of America’s whites.

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    • Replies: @George Glass
    Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here's 2014 data from Pew. It's 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican. In the U.S low education whites have a unique culture of and have internalized economic libertarianism, the ideology of the Republican party.

    http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables-white-non-hispanic/

    Second, it doesn't matter if more educated whites are slightly more libertarian than less educated whites. The theory isn't simply that libertarianism is bad for you, it's that libertarianism is bad for you if you have low social status. It psychologically internalizes failure instead of externalizing it. Indeed, if you have high social status libertarianism is good for you because your success is self-validating proof of your inherent value.

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  102. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    Thanks. And I’d wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn’t the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don’t know how to test that, though.

    I remember it well to this day. Saw the news–we still had an old B+W TV (my parents bought a color one later that year, all part of the crazy times)–LBJ had died and the supremes had legalized abortion. Say what? And even as teenager i thought “what a load of utter bullshit, abortion is not a constitutional right”. We were clearly on a slippery slope were there is no democracy but courts just decree what a certain elite has decided. It was a crazy day.

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  103. @D. K.
    LBJ died, in a helicopter, en route to the hospital, that very afternoon-- and he, too, already had let his hair grow out wildly, as if to let the youngsters who had driven him from office know that he really understood where they were coming from...!?! (He would have left office, just fifty-some hours earlier, if he had continued with his 1968 re-election campaign, and beaten Dick Nixon.) Of course, he smoked and drank himself to death, pretty much; even as president, he abused himself in much the same manner, if to a somewhat less-egregious degree, when he actually had work to get done. (From his death until Nixon's resignation's taking effect, barely a year and a half later, by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)

    … by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)

    It was actually the first time in 100 years. I think–and just checked to verify–that everyone prior was dead when Andrew Johnson died during Grant’s term. Prior to that you need to go back to John Adams.

    Now we have a passel of these clowns, though Bush and Carter are roughly my dad’s age and probably won’t be around in five years. But given life expectancy these days these boomer presidents will be sucking down a pension for years and years to come.

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  104. Uhm the obesity rate in Chinese cities is upwards of 20%?

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  105. @Steve Sailer
    That happened to Kenny Easley, the UCLA / Seattle defensive back. He didn't want to get hooked on prescription painkillers so he just took lots and lots of drugstore Tylenol. It wrecked his liver.

    That happened to Kenny Easley, the UCLA / Seattle defensive back. He didn’t want to get hooked on prescription painkillers so he just took lots and lots of drugstore Tylenol. It wrecked his liver.

    Same basic idea, but for Easley it was actually Advil and his kidneys. (One of my work friends is married to his sister.)

    Tylenol and Advil are both definitely “stay within the lines” OTC meds.

    I believe they had some issues with different strengths (per unit volume) between “infant” and “child” formulas of Tylenol and maybe Advil too, that led to infant overdoses and liver\kidney damage and a few infant deaths. And there was a move to try and make the suspensions the same.

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  106. @D. K.
    LBJ died, in a helicopter, en route to the hospital, that very afternoon-- and he, too, already had let his hair grow out wildly, as if to let the youngsters who had driven him from office know that he really understood where they were coming from...!?! (He would have left office, just fifty-some hours earlier, if he had continued with his 1968 re-election campaign, and beaten Dick Nixon.) Of course, he smoked and drank himself to death, pretty much; even as president, he abused himself in much the same manner, if to a somewhat less-egregious degree, when he actually had work to get done. (From his death until Nixon's resignation's taking effect, barely a year and a half later, by the way, was the last time, to date, that America was without a living former president. I would have to check when the previous such period of American history was, but it was certainly several decades, earlier.)

    Off the top of my head and not Googling, George Washington died while John Adams was in office, so that may have been the only other time in which there were zero living former Presidents. And John Adams lived for quite a long time after he led office. Which leads to another trivia question – has Jimmy Carter lived longer after leaving office than any other President?

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    Yes, Jimmy Carter took that title, just over three years ago. If he makes it to next January 20, at noon E.S.T., he will hit the 35-year mark, as a living ex-president. Speaking of ex-presidents:

    ***

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former President George H.W. Bush takes some unexpected swipes at Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, key members of his son's administration, over their reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks, in a new biography of the 41st president, Fox News reported on Wednesday.

    In "Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey Of George Herbert Walker Bush," author Jon Meacham quotes Bush as saying that Cheney and Rumsfeld were too hawkish and that their harsh stance damaged the reputation of the United States, the cable news network said.

    Speaking of Cheney, who was vice president under President George W. Bush, the senior Bush said: "I don't know, he just became very hard-line and very different from the Dick Cheney I knew and worked with," according to the report.

    Cheney served as defense secretary during George H.W. Bush's 1989-1993 presidency.

    "The reaction (to Sept. 11), what to do about the Middle East. Just iron-ass. His seeming knuckling under to the real hard-charging guys who want to fight about everything, use force to get our way in the Middle East," Bush told Meacham in the book to be published next Tuesday.

    Bush believes Cheney acted too independently of his son by creating a national security team in his own office, and may have been influenced to become more conservative by his wife and daughter, Lynne and Liz Cheney, the report cites the biography as saying.

    On Rumsfeld, secretary of defense for most of the two terms served by his son, Bush is even more critical. He is quoted as saying: "I don't like what he did, and I think it hurt the President," referring to his son.

    "I've never been that close to him anyway. There's a lack of humility, a lack of seeing what the other guy thinks. He's more kick ass and take names, take numbers. I think he paid a price for that. Rumsfeld was an arrogant fellow," he was quoted as saying in the biography.

    Fox News quoted Cheney as denying his family had influenced his views, saying: "It's his view, perhaps, of what happened, but my family was not conspiring to somehow turn me into a tougher, more hardnosed individual. I got there all by myself."

    Bush's spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

    Rumsfeld declined to comment on the book, Fox News said.

    (Reporting by Eric Walsh; Editing by Peter Cooney)

    ***
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  107. @George
    "1970s were a Big Party " Obviously not true.

    Flamboyant people stick out, but I can guarantee very few people percent wise had the time and money to hang out all day and night. How many flappers were there in the 20s? The reality is few people that needed to get up in the morning attended any parties. At the time I knew of the Sex Pistols, owned an album, knew they were in NYC at Bonds from TV news, but wasn't the sort that went out that much. I am the non flamboyant 99.5%.

    You also forget more wholsome activities like ballroom dancing aka Disco.

    I would say a better explanation is the reduction in medical care , through regulating the number of doctors and nurses, and increase in cost. Not to mention constantly adding immigrants to the number of patients. This made it impossible for anyone not working for the government to have insurance. Years of not being able to afford basic care is taking its toll.

    There is a crazy wing nut thing fixating on flappers, hippies, anyone on a magazine cover that is flamboyant, the problem is there are very few actual people that are like that in the real world. The Sears catalogue is more a reflection of how people really were.

    Then how do you explain differential behavior with respect to other ethnic groups? They, if anything, had even lower access to healthcare. Also, the prescription painkiller epidemic is probably due to excessive healthcare not less of it.

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  108. @jackson
    How about poor U.S. minorities and poor European whites are socialist while poor U.S. whites are libertarian?

    No, among whites (and all other racial/ethnic groups) lower income means more Democrat, not more libertarian. Voting patterns of America’s whites.

    Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here’s 2014 data from Pew. It’s 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican. In the U.S low education whites have a unique culture of and have internalized economic libertarianism, the ideology of the Republican party.

    http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables-white-non-hispanic/

    Second, it doesn’t matter if more educated whites are slightly more libertarian than less educated whites. The theory isn’t simply that libertarianism is bad for you, it’s that libertarianism is bad for you if you have low social status. It psychologically internalizes failure instead of externalizing it. Indeed, if you have high social status libertarianism is good for you because your success is self-validating proof of your inherent value.

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    • Replies: @Wilkey
    "Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here’s 2014 data from Pew. It’s 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican."

    Virtually all polls show that more years of education correlates with increased likelihood of Republican affiliation up through bachelor's degrees.
    , @jackson
    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites? Blacks and Hispanics are happier as their status sinks? Doesn't make sense.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause. Would you say that the cause of the widespread death of Amerindians by measles, smallpox and influenza was ineffective Amerindian immune systems rather than the arrival of the Conquistadors?

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  109. @Hapalong Cassidy
    Off the top of my head and not Googling, George Washington died while John Adams was in office, so that may have been the only other time in which there were zero living former Presidents. And John Adams lived for quite a long time after he led office. Which leads to another trivia question - has Jimmy Carter lived longer after leaving office than any other President?

    Yes, Jimmy Carter took that title, just over three years ago. If he makes it to next January 20, at noon E.S.T., he will hit the 35-year mark, as a living ex-president. Speaking of ex-presidents:

    ***

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Former President George H.W. Bush takes some unexpected swipes at Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, key members of his son’s administration, over their reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks, in a new biography of the 41st president, Fox News reported on Wednesday.

    In “Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey Of George Herbert Walker Bush,” author Jon Meacham quotes Bush as saying that Cheney and Rumsfeld were too hawkish and that their harsh stance damaged the reputation of the United States, the cable news network said.

    Speaking of Cheney, who was vice president under President George W. Bush, the senior Bush said: “I don’t know, he just became very hard-line and very different from the Dick Cheney I knew and worked with,” according to the report.

    Cheney served as defense secretary during George H.W. Bush’s 1989-1993 presidency.

    “The reaction (to Sept. 11), what to do about the Middle East. Just iron-ass. His seeming knuckling under to the real hard-charging guys who want to fight about everything, use force to get our way in the Middle East,” Bush told Meacham in the book to be published next Tuesday.

    Bush believes Cheney acted too independently of his son by creating a national security team in his own office, and may have been influenced to become more conservative by his wife and daughter, Lynne and Liz Cheney, the report cites the biography as saying.

    On Rumsfeld, secretary of defense for most of the two terms served by his son, Bush is even more critical. He is quoted as saying: “I don’t like what he did, and I think it hurt the President,” referring to his son.

    “I’ve never been that close to him anyway. There’s a lack of humility, a lack of seeing what the other guy thinks. He’s more kick ass and take names, take numbers. I think he paid a price for that. Rumsfeld was an arrogant fellow,” he was quoted as saying in the biography.

    Fox News quoted Cheney as denying his family had influenced his views, saying: “It’s his view, perhaps, of what happened, but my family was not conspiring to somehow turn me into a tougher, more hardnosed individual. I got there all by myself.”

    Bush’s spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

    Rumsfeld declined to comment on the book, Fox News said.

    (Reporting by Eric Walsh; Editing by Peter Cooney)

    ***

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Bush Sr. admits he suffered depression after winning the Gulf War and seriously thought about not running for re-election.

    That's what it seemed like to me at the time: winning a splendid little war was accomplishment enough for him and he never got back into the swing. For a politician for whom energy was his chief distinguishing asset, a down period was fatal to his career.

    Bush should have walked away in 1992 like Johnson did in 1968.
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  110. @Honesthughgrant
    LBJ had a massive heart attack in his 40s and just survived through luck. He had to give up smoking. I don't think he was ever an alcoholic. But he came from that generation, that smoked, drank, didn't exercise and ate all the wrong foods.

    He apparently started smoking again, after he left the presidency. As I recall, from the PBS series on the former presidents, someone who was fairly close to him politically was quoted on camera saying that he had essentially taken to drinking heavily, after he left the White House, along with his smoking again, because he apparently had lost the will to live, once he no longer had the entire Free World to run, and to occupy his time and his mind!?! He reportedly had an actuarial study done, after leaving office, that predicted that he would likely die at age 64– and, he did, just over seven months before he would have hit 65. Without bothering to look further, just now, here is what Wikipedia.org has to say:

    ***

    In March 1970, Johnson suffered an attack of angina and was taken to Brooke Army General Hospital on Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio. He was urged to lose a considerable amount of weight. Johnson had grown dangerously heavier since leaving the White House, gaining more than 25 pounds (11 kg) and weighing around 235 pounds (107 kg). He had also resumed smoking after nearly fifteen years without having done so, which contributed further to his health problems. The following summer, again gripped by chest pains, he embarked on a crash water diet, shedding about 15 pounds (6.8 kg) in less than a month. In April 1972, Johnson fell victim to a second heart attack while visiting his daughter, Lynda, in Charlottesville, Virginia. “I’m hurting real bad,” he confided to friends. The chest pains hit him nearly every afternoon—a series of sharp, jolting pains that left him scared and breathless. A portable oxygen tank stood next to his bed, and he periodically interrupted what he was doing to lie down and don the mask to gulp air. He continued to smoke heavily, and, although placed on a low-calorie, low-cholesterol diet, kept to it only in fits and starts. Meanwhile, he began experiencing severe stomach pains. Doctors diagnosed this problem as diverticulosis, pouches forming on the intestine. His condition rapidly worsened and surgery was recommended, so Johnson flew to Houston to consult with heart specialist Dr. Michael DeBakey. DeBakey discovered that even though two of the former President’s coronary arteries were critically damaged, the overall condition of his heart was so poor that even attempting a bypass surgery would likely result in fatal complications.[244]

    ***

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  111. @JayMan
    There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.

    See:

    Idiocracy Can Wait?

    (towards the bottom)

    “There was a decline in the fraction of people who were childless during the Baby Boom. I suspect that people who were less healthy, mentally and physically, had children during this time. Now we see their children dying off.”

    This is a possibility. One of the effects of modern medicine is that it keeps alive large numbers of people who are less robust and tend to be more sickly as adults. But how do Europe and Japan compare?

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  112. @George Glass
    Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here's 2014 data from Pew. It's 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican. In the U.S low education whites have a unique culture of and have internalized economic libertarianism, the ideology of the Republican party.

    http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables-white-non-hispanic/

    Second, it doesn't matter if more educated whites are slightly more libertarian than less educated whites. The theory isn't simply that libertarianism is bad for you, it's that libertarianism is bad for you if you have low social status. It psychologically internalizes failure instead of externalizing it. Indeed, if you have high social status libertarianism is good for you because your success is self-validating proof of your inherent value.

    “Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here’s 2014 data from Pew. It’s 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican.”

    Virtually all polls show that more years of education correlates with increased likelihood of Republican affiliation up through bachelor’s degrees.

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  113. @Honesthughgrant
    Certainly a lot of boomers did "Turn on, tune in, and drop out" - I don't think they were "promised" anything. Its more like they thought the gravy train would last forever. As Steve always points out, median wages for white males hit their peak in 1973 and have either gone down or stayed the same for almost 40 years.

    A lot of boomers have been able to drift through life because they got in on the ground floor of the real estate prices and the stock market. But many of them didn't, and they paid the price when they got to middle age.

    You only be 16 years old for so long. Unless you're a rock star.


    “I don’t think they were “promised” anything.” That can only be because you’re thinking with your mind closed. Every sort of huckster is (still) promising every sort of payoff if you believe/obey, but in the 60s/70s there was a unanimity among the respected gurus (spiritual and artistic) that enlightenment would make every moment ecstatic, and buying in to the Establishment was soul-death. You’re contemptuously dismissing it as partying/freeloading but that was just one end of a spectrum that included lots of honorable seekers.

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  114. One factor that might be different between the US and other western countries (at least until the mid 1990s) would be greater access to consumer credit through credit cards, student loans and loan sharks targeting people on low incomes.

    I remember when govt backed student loans first came in Australia and New Zealand during the early 1990s – lots of working and lower middle class teenagers and young adults used them to get money for partying and buying cars and drugs. Prior to that young people from working and lower middle class backgrounds couldn’t party that hard because they were reliant on money from their modest pay checks.

    However, I imagine Blacks and Hispanics also used consumer credit to buy drugs, alcohol, fast cars etc, so credit isn’t likely to that important

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Blacks got hit hard and fast by "The Sixties" -- overdoses, shootings, AIDS. Then crack. After the LA Riot of 1992, however, blacks became less self-destructive.
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  115. @George Glass
    Jackson, first of all, among whites with a highschool education or less there are more Republicans than Democrats. Here's 2014 data from Pew. It's 30% Republican, 24% Democrat, and 48% right orientation, and 37% left orientation. Meanwhile, white college graduates are slightly more Democrat than Republican. In the U.S low education whites have a unique culture of and have internalized economic libertarianism, the ideology of the Republican party.

    http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables-white-non-hispanic/

    Second, it doesn't matter if more educated whites are slightly more libertarian than less educated whites. The theory isn't simply that libertarianism is bad for you, it's that libertarianism is bad for you if you have low social status. It psychologically internalizes failure instead of externalizing it. Indeed, if you have high social status libertarianism is good for you because your success is self-validating proof of your inherent value.

    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites? Blacks and Hispanics are happier as their status sinks? Doesn’t make sense.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause. Would you say that the cause of the widespread death of Amerindians by measles, smallpox and influenza was ineffective Amerindian immune systems rather than the arrival of the Conquistadors?

    Read More
    • Replies: @George Glass
    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites?

    Blacks and Hispanics (and European whites) externalize their failures. That is they blame outside forces for their condition. American whites internalize their failures. They blame themselves for their failures and consequently self-destruct.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause

    Nope. I did not dismiss PC and immigration as causes of their falling status. I dismissed PC and immigration as causes of their increasing death rate, which is shared by no other national or ethnic demographic with similarly falling status.

    American blacks and European whites have also endured the ills of modernity. The central question is what differentiates low status American whites from these two groups? In my opinion a plausible answer is their deeply held beliefs about their own failures.

    Low status American whites have unusual political beliefs compared with other demographic groups at the same status level.

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  116. @yaqub the mad scientist
    Having taught high school and seen the chronology of graduation class portraits of many a school, I can confirm that in the rural South, that is when the change happened. It's so obvious that I've noticed it for years. In composite after composite, the appearance of the students changes dramatically in 1972.

    the appearance of the students changes dramatically in 1972

    Coincidentally, the year TFR declined to below maintanence level.

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  117. @jackson
    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites? Blacks and Hispanics are happier as their status sinks? Doesn't make sense.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause. Would you say that the cause of the widespread death of Amerindians by measles, smallpox and influenza was ineffective Amerindian immune systems rather than the arrival of the Conquistadors?

    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites?

    Blacks and Hispanics (and European whites) externalize their failures. That is they blame outside forces for their condition. American whites internalize their failures. They blame themselves for their failures and consequently self-destruct.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause

    Nope. I did not dismiss PC and immigration as causes of their falling status. I dismissed PC and immigration as causes of their increasing death rate, which is shared by no other national or ethnic demographic with similarly falling status.

    American blacks and European whites have also endured the ills of modernity. The central question is what differentiates low status American whites from these two groups? In my opinion a plausible answer is their deeply held beliefs about their own failures.

    Low status American whites have unusual political beliefs compared with other demographic groups at the same status level.

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    • Replies: @jackson
    You're ignoring the fact that the rate of death for low-income American whites is increasing, while that for nonwhites and Europeans is decreasing - i.e., the main point of the study.

    According to your hypothesis this implies that either low-income whites started becoming a lot more "libertarian" around 1998, or their status began sinking. Which is it?
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  118. @V Vega

    I think I’ve read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.
     
    From what I've seen, marriage is the killer for white men. When you think about it, divorce is just being married without the bitch actually living in your house. The money you have to throw into your divorced wife can readily replace the stress of marriage itself, sans the bitch.

    It seems, though our culture doesn't really need the horrible (for men) marriage contract, men do it anyway, and pay dearly for their mistake. Divorce just kicks the stress up a notch, but sans divorce, dealing with a female in the house from day to day, not to mention kids, has sucked the life force out of most married man I know, until they finally just give up, and wait for nature to reabsorb them, because of the lack of guts, or guilt stays their hand from doing what they'd like to do.

    It must be kind of stressful in itself to refrain from killing yourself simply because you don't want to traumatize your kids. I know quite a few "dead man walking" married types. Hoping you die soon can't be a relaxing day to day experience. Taking SRI's, as many married men do, to make you not care isn't great either, since they create brain damage, and speed you on your way to oblivion.

    In any case, it's marriage that kills. Divorce without alimony or child support gives a man's will to live another fighting chance.

    I’ve heard this. Thing is, who takes care of your old carcass when you get decrepit?’

    I may still stay single, because I don’t have the game to get a quality woman. But I do wonder.

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  119. @WGG
    Liver poisoning = Tylenol (paracetamol).


    A lot of those opiate derivative pills have Tylenol in them, and when taken daily or in large quantities, will ruin your liver. People would be better off chasing the dragon then taking the crap the stooge doctors are pushing.

    Also, pain is normal. Chronic pain is normal for middle aged people and older. It becomes mentally unbearable if a person doesn't have a good and loving support system/ family. People no longer have strong marriages and strong families because the culture is POZ'd. I have no clue how American patriotism is still a thing. We have nothing to be proud of anymore except our long-past history. I, unlike some who post here, was born into a degenerate culture, and I'm definitely bitter about it. Thanks, Boomers! I'll try not to cry too hard for your crap health.

    Countries have been through worse. No foreign army occupies us, the bastards can still be voted out. Also, the rest of Europe is just as degenerate.

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  120. @unpc downunder
    One factor that might be different between the US and other western countries (at least until the mid 1990s) would be greater access to consumer credit through credit cards, student loans and loan sharks targeting people on low incomes.

    I remember when govt backed student loans first came in Australia and New Zealand during the early 1990s - lots of working and lower middle class teenagers and young adults used them to get money for partying and buying cars and drugs. Prior to that young people from working and lower middle class backgrounds couldn't party that hard because they were reliant on money from their modest pay checks.

    However, I imagine Blacks and Hispanics also used consumer credit to buy drugs, alcohol, fast cars etc, so credit isn't likely to that important

    Blacks got hit hard and fast by “The Sixties” — overdoses, shootings, AIDS. Then crack. After the LA Riot of 1992, however, blacks became less self-destructive.

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    • Replies: @Curle
    Less self-destructive or just more of the worst found their way to prison?
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  121. @D. K.
    Yes, Jimmy Carter took that title, just over three years ago. If he makes it to next January 20, at noon E.S.T., he will hit the 35-year mark, as a living ex-president. Speaking of ex-presidents:

    ***

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former President George H.W. Bush takes some unexpected swipes at Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, key members of his son's administration, over their reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks, in a new biography of the 41st president, Fox News reported on Wednesday.

    In "Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey Of George Herbert Walker Bush," author Jon Meacham quotes Bush as saying that Cheney and Rumsfeld were too hawkish and that their harsh stance damaged the reputation of the United States, the cable news network said.

    Speaking of Cheney, who was vice president under President George W. Bush, the senior Bush said: "I don't know, he just became very hard-line and very different from the Dick Cheney I knew and worked with," according to the report.

    Cheney served as defense secretary during George H.W. Bush's 1989-1993 presidency.

    "The reaction (to Sept. 11), what to do about the Middle East. Just iron-ass. His seeming knuckling under to the real hard-charging guys who want to fight about everything, use force to get our way in the Middle East," Bush told Meacham in the book to be published next Tuesday.

    Bush believes Cheney acted too independently of his son by creating a national security team in his own office, and may have been influenced to become more conservative by his wife and daughter, Lynne and Liz Cheney, the report cites the biography as saying.

    On Rumsfeld, secretary of defense for most of the two terms served by his son, Bush is even more critical. He is quoted as saying: "I don't like what he did, and I think it hurt the President," referring to his son.

    "I've never been that close to him anyway. There's a lack of humility, a lack of seeing what the other guy thinks. He's more kick ass and take names, take numbers. I think he paid a price for that. Rumsfeld was an arrogant fellow," he was quoted as saying in the biography.

    Fox News quoted Cheney as denying his family had influenced his views, saying: "It's his view, perhaps, of what happened, but my family was not conspiring to somehow turn me into a tougher, more hardnosed individual. I got there all by myself."

    Bush's spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

    Rumsfeld declined to comment on the book, Fox News said.

    (Reporting by Eric Walsh; Editing by Peter Cooney)

    ***

    Bush Sr. admits he suffered depression after winning the Gulf War and seriously thought about not running for re-election.

    That’s what it seemed like to me at the time: winning a splendid little war was accomplishment enough for him and he never got back into the swing. For a politician for whom energy was his chief distinguishing asset, a down period was fatal to his career.

    Bush should have walked away in 1992 like Johnson did in 1968.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    My impression, as someone who voted against him, four times, is that Bush the Elder, despite his being an Internationalist and Globalist, ideologically, is a genuine, old-fashion American patriot, emotionally. I suspect that he is simply mortified by what has happened to this country, since he left office, under duress, and that he knows that it was his own eldest son who did the bulk of the damage to it, especially by invading the Middle East, with no discernible plan on how to leave. If I were the father, I would be tortured, now, by the thought that my going into the Middle East, just to save the asses and assets of the Kuwaiti royal family, was ultimately responsible for all that has followed, over there, and has led to the virtual bankruptcy, and inevitable ruination, of arguably the single greatest nation on Earth!?! It is hard enough to sleep soundly, at such an advanced age, without that thought boarding permanently in one's otherwise-unoccupied mind....
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  122. @27 year old
    Yeah, the so called "greatest" generation, defeated the mighty Axis war machine, then came home and lost a civil war to bunch of degenerate drug heads.

    They lost the civil war to someone else. Paul Gottfried’s piece, up now on this site, suggests who that is.

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  123. @Steve Sailer
    Blacks got hit hard and fast by "The Sixties" -- overdoses, shootings, AIDS. Then crack. After the LA Riot of 1992, however, blacks became less self-destructive.

    Less self-destructive or just more of the worst found their way to prison?

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  124. […] In the post above, I offer another factor as a theory, a generational […]

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  125. @Steve Sailer
    Bush Sr. admits he suffered depression after winning the Gulf War and seriously thought about not running for re-election.

    That's what it seemed like to me at the time: winning a splendid little war was accomplishment enough for him and he never got back into the swing. For a politician for whom energy was his chief distinguishing asset, a down period was fatal to his career.

    Bush should have walked away in 1992 like Johnson did in 1968.

    My impression, as someone who voted against him, four times, is that Bush the Elder, despite his being an Internationalist and Globalist, ideologically, is a genuine, old-fashion American patriot, emotionally. I suspect that he is simply mortified by what has happened to this country, since he left office, under duress, and that he knows that it was his own eldest son who did the bulk of the damage to it, especially by invading the Middle East, with no discernible plan on how to leave. If I were the father, I would be tortured, now, by the thought that my going into the Middle East, just to save the asses and assets of the Kuwaiti royal family, was ultimately responsible for all that has followed, over there, and has led to the virtual bankruptcy, and inevitable ruination, of arguably the single greatest nation on Earth!?! It is hard enough to sleep soundly, at such an advanced age, without that thought boarding permanently in one’s otherwise-unoccupied mind….

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  126. Hey, it’s “Janis” Joplin, not Janet. Both of my parents were born in 1942. My mom died at the age of 57, from lung cancer. My dad died of alcoholism, at the age of 60. They saved me a lot of trouble in that I don’t have to take care of them in their old age, but I am still really pissed at them for checking out so early. They were only 19 years old when I was born, so I should have had them longer!

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  127. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Really, it all goes deeper than the partying in the 70s.

    If you look at late baby boomer cohort, from the peak in 1957 going forward, virtually every indication of dysfunction increases by comparison with their immediate predecessors – increased drug rates, juvenile delinquency, teen preggers, just about everything started very early with this age group, not just their teen years.

    Probably a whole bunch of explanations, but really, just some years/conditions/social environments are healthier – the late boomers’ environment was relatively caustic compared to some other ones.

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  128. @George Glass
    If that was the case why would black and Hispanic death rates be moving inversely to that of whites?

    Blacks and Hispanics (and European whites) externalize their failures. That is they blame outside forces for their condition. American whites internalize their failures. They blame themselves for their failures and consequently self-destruct.

    The low status must also be caused by something, yet you dismiss PC and immigration as a cause

    Nope. I did not dismiss PC and immigration as causes of their falling status. I dismissed PC and immigration as causes of their increasing death rate, which is shared by no other national or ethnic demographic with similarly falling status.

    American blacks and European whites have also endured the ills of modernity. The central question is what differentiates low status American whites from these two groups? In my opinion a plausible answer is their deeply held beliefs about their own failures.

    Low status American whites have unusual political beliefs compared with other demographic groups at the same status level.

    You’re ignoring the fact that the rate of death for low-income American whites is increasing, while that for nonwhites and Europeans is decreasing – i.e., the main point of the study.

    According to your hypothesis this implies that either low-income whites started becoming a lot more “libertarian” around 1998, or their status began sinking. Which is it?

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    • Replies: @George Glass
    I'm not "ignoring" that, it is the phenomenon we are discussing. Steady improvements in medicine should be decreasing death rates for low status whites like it is every other demographic group in advanced nations. But low status whites are killing themselves off because their unique political culture makes them believe they are human garbage.

    Which is it?

    Low status whites hitting middle age around 1998 were the first cohort to realize that they were not doing better than their own parents, who hit middle age during the Great Compression era when middle class wages were available to a larger fraction of the working class.

    They are probably less libertarian than their Cold War era parents, but again libertarian beliefs are good for people when they are successful. They inherited Cold War political beliefs from their parents that left them psychologically maladapted for a new economic environment.

    Meanwhile more intellectually flexible Cold Warriors like Pat Buchanan grew softer on socialism once increasing inequality, economic surplus, and job obsoletion became salient new economic realities.
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  129. would be interesting if there is a pattern to this rise in fatalities….is it effecting more whites in the Northeast ? South ? Midwest ? Western states ?

    certainly there is a generational component…the generation born between 1955-1970 is the first to experience massive immigration from non-european nations, it is also the generation which experienced the drug culture, the destruction of industrial jobs, the fall in union power, the rise of feminism, the start of affirmative action, free trade agreements and the mocking of working class culture. These men have faced economic hardships while being attacked by the elites for their culture at the same time the elites have welcomed immigrants from the third world to reduce their earning power. It is difficult enough to deal with economic hardship, compounded with being mocked while you see the elites embracing your replacements and blaming you for the problems of blacks while granting special privileges to hispanics.

    Europe has had a far lower rate of immigration over the last 30 years, and more importantly they seem to value and respect the working class, and have regulations in place to protect workers. The pharmaceutical firms are also more powerful in America , and had an easier time promoting their drugs.

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  130. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    Thanks. And I’d wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn’t the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don’t know how to test that, though.

    Well-known fact: New York legalized abortion in 1970. Much lesser-known fact: New York’s legislature voted to repeal that law in 1972.

    So even the (ostensibly) most pro-abortion states were still seriously divided in 1972.

    Also, don’t forget that the voting age had just been lowered. It was the first time 20-year-olds could vote in 46 states, 18-year-olds in 49.

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  131. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    It is strange to think that other countries legalized abortion in years other than 1973. 1973 seems like the right year – not the morally right year (that would be the year Never), but the dramatically right year. Legalized abortion as early as 1967 (Britain) or not until 1978 (Italy) seems off. 1975 (France) is fairly close.

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  132. @jackson
    You're ignoring the fact that the rate of death for low-income American whites is increasing, while that for nonwhites and Europeans is decreasing - i.e., the main point of the study.

    According to your hypothesis this implies that either low-income whites started becoming a lot more "libertarian" around 1998, or their status began sinking. Which is it?

    I’m not “ignoring” that, it is the phenomenon we are discussing. Steady improvements in medicine should be decreasing death rates for low status whites like it is every other demographic group in advanced nations. But low status whites are killing themselves off because their unique political culture makes them believe they are human garbage.

    Which is it?

    Low status whites hitting middle age around 1998 were the first cohort to realize that they were not doing better than their own parents, who hit middle age during the Great Compression era when middle class wages were available to a larger fraction of the working class.

    They are probably less libertarian than their Cold War era parents, but again libertarian beliefs are good for people when they are successful. They inherited Cold War political beliefs from their parents that left them psychologically maladapted for a new economic environment.

    Meanwhile more intellectually flexible Cold Warriors like Pat Buchanan grew softer on socialism once increasing inequality, economic surplus, and job obsoletion became salient new economic realities.

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    • Replies: @jackson
    That's a reasonable idea - that American whites respond differently than nonwhites do to status changes, and that they measure their status by comparing it to their parents', but the ultimate blame still likely lies at the feet of immigration and PC. The parents of these now-dead people lived lives almost entirely free of the income-destroying effects of immigration, and the social status-destroying effects of PC. It all fits.

    The fact that these people weren't psychologically immune doesn't mean immigration and PC weren't to blame, it means immigration and PC can be very dangerous.

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  133. @Honesthughgrant
    You if want an example of two boomers who've drifted through life - look at Reagan's Kids. Patti born 1952, Ron Reagan born 1958. Both college drop outs, RR jr. dropped out of Harvard to be a ballet dancer, Patti dropped out of college, dropped a lot of acid, hooked up with some Rock and Roll stars. Neither has accomplished anything. Neither has kids. Both are now single (RR a widow, he married a women 7 years older, Patti divorced her Yoga instructor 20 years ago).

    Both have spent their whole lives living off the fact they are Reagan's Kids. They're probably doing well financially though and no doubt will inherit a lot of expensive real estate when Nancy dies.

    Typical boomers.

    The kids not raised by Ronald are the ones who stayed conservative (or at least Republican – Maureen was relatively liberal during her failed political career and I believe also had no children). I always thought that was interesting.

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  134. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:
    @AndrewR
    I'm not sure that they are. Claiming "lower class whites are dying younger now than in the past" is not the same as saying "lower class whites are dying younger than lower class blacks are."

    Right, thanks.

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  135. @George Glass
    I'm not "ignoring" that, it is the phenomenon we are discussing. Steady improvements in medicine should be decreasing death rates for low status whites like it is every other demographic group in advanced nations. But low status whites are killing themselves off because their unique political culture makes them believe they are human garbage.

    Which is it?

    Low status whites hitting middle age around 1998 were the first cohort to realize that they were not doing better than their own parents, who hit middle age during the Great Compression era when middle class wages were available to a larger fraction of the working class.

    They are probably less libertarian than their Cold War era parents, but again libertarian beliefs are good for people when they are successful. They inherited Cold War political beliefs from their parents that left them psychologically maladapted for a new economic environment.

    Meanwhile more intellectually flexible Cold Warriors like Pat Buchanan grew softer on socialism once increasing inequality, economic surplus, and job obsoletion became salient new economic realities.

    That’s a reasonable idea – that American whites respond differently than nonwhites do to status changes, and that they measure their status by comparing it to their parents’, but the ultimate blame still likely lies at the feet of immigration and PC. The parents of these now-dead people lived lives almost entirely free of the income-destroying effects of immigration, and the social status-destroying effects of PC. It all fits.

    The fact that these people weren’t psychologically immune doesn’t mean immigration and PC weren’t to blame, it means immigration and PC can be very dangerous.

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  136. @Honesthughgrant
    You if want an example of two boomers who've drifted through life - look at Reagan's Kids. Patti born 1952, Ron Reagan born 1958. Both college drop outs, RR jr. dropped out of Harvard to be a ballet dancer, Patti dropped out of college, dropped a lot of acid, hooked up with some Rock and Roll stars. Neither has accomplished anything. Neither has kids. Both are now single (RR a widow, he married a women 7 years older, Patti divorced her Yoga instructor 20 years ago).

    Both have spent their whole lives living off the fact they are Reagan's Kids. They're probably doing well financially though and no doubt will inherit a lot of expensive real estate when Nancy dies.

    Typical boomers.

    FFRF Ron Reagan Ad
    Freedom From Religion Foundation

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  137. Couldn’t it just be caused by rising healthcare costs? The demand for healthcare keeps rising, but supply is steady. Government subsidizes healthcare for poor blacks and the elderly. Wealthy whites can afford the premiums. In effect, healthcare has been redistributed from poor middle-aged whites to everyone else.

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  138. @Steve Sailer
    I think there was a change from 1972 to 1973 at the mass level, but I don't know for sure: high school yearbooks would provide evidence.

    I’ve got my 40th reunion next year, and the Facebook page for the event is already up. I don’t know which is worse, the bad long hair and sideburns or the bad plaid pants!

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Being on Facebook at all is worse than either of those.
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  139. @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. And I'd wonder if Roe v. Wade on 1/22/73 wasn't the central event in the breakout of the Sixties into mass America. Don't know how to test that, though.

    As well as the Bobby Riggs/Billie Jean King match, 9/20/1973, and the invasion of the workplace by women.

    Coincidence?

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  140. @Lugash
    That's an amazing chart, but it's an odd grouping. Pairing chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is logical, and maybe poisoning. But why put suicide in with that group?

    I'd like to see the same chart by sex, and for divorced men and women. I think I've read elsewhere that divorce is a killer for middle aged white men.

    So would I.

    The 40- and 50-something age group I’m familiar with has a lot of single people in it. The dichotomy is the ones with the worst party habits are also looking for partners, so their bad behaviors are somewhat moderated by their efforts to stay in shape and remain attractive to the opposite sex.

    The ones who’ve given up on relationships, on the other hand, have no reason to eat right or stay in shape, and deteriorate accordingly.

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  141. @Brutusale
    I've got my 40th reunion next year, and the Facebook page for the event is already up. I don't know which is worse, the bad long hair and sideburns or the bad plaid pants!

    Being on Facebook at all is worse than either of those.

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  142. I suggest looking into # of pharmaceutical prescriptions, which as you know has risen for all Americans over the last 20 years.

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  143. @Dumbo
    Bullshit. It is clearly due to a decay in quality of life for a certain subgroup of whites. Life became harder for most, specially for lower-class and lower-middle-class whites, who are the most affected. Canary in the coal mine, etc.

    Also, it is not clear that people who are "less healthy, mentally and physically" (whatever it means) had always less children than smart people (Intelligence and fertility have always been inversely correlated, and even more in the Age of Contraception).

    Finally, if the Baby Boom made "less healthy" people more likely to have children, it would have made the "healthy" have even more children, so the proportion would not have changed as it did.

    Plus, other countries such as Canada, Sweden, etc, had a similar post-war baby boom, but only the US is showing an increase in death of middle-age whites. (for now, at least. maybe we will start seeing this phenomenon in Germany too as immigration and white displacement increase)

    Finally, if the Baby Boom made “less healthy” people more likely to have children, it would have made the “healthy” have even more children, so the proportion would not have changed as it did.

    Only if you assume it was a rising tide that lifted all boats equally. There’s absolutely no reason to make that assumption.

    During the Depression, the norm was great inequality in the number of children had by White women; 10% had 8 or more while 20% had none at all.

    During the Boom, the fraction childless fell to 5%. It’s quite likely the bottom of the barrel disportionally benefitted during the Boom. Boomers would then less healthy than previous cohorts for that reason.

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  144. […] sex, drugs, and rock-n-roll taking their toll? Steve Sailer thinks it’s possible, as he analyzes the increasing death rates among the baby bo…. […]

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  145. @ATX Hipster
    Maybe it's the moral vacuum of western malaise catching up to the US. Notice on the graph of death rates by country western Europeans saw a bump during the time frame where the EU was being formed and national currencies were being abandoned. We tend to lag the Europeans in adoption of post-modern, "progressive" ideas, as well as their consequences, but when we jump on the bandwagon we do it super-sized (take a look at our debt).

    We've killed God, the nation state, the nuclear family, anything that has traditionally given people meaning. Where blacks seem to have embraced this malaise as an opportunity for a carefree life of permanent unemployment checks and a handful of baby mamas, whites seem to suffer an existential crisis.

    xxxyzzzzz

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  146. Well, as a white woman, I guess I can “have it all” but just not for too long.

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  147. […] Suicide and death from substance abuse often go hand in hand and they tend to work over time. Sailer took a look at the ages involved, did a little math and noticed that the cohort with the spike in suicide and substance abuse were […]

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