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IMF: Sub-Saharan Africa Won't Economically Grow Its Way Out of Its Overpopulation Crisis
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Sub-Saharan Africa has been doing fairly well in this century economically due largely to high Chinese demand for raw materials, plus a little development in traditional starter industries like textiles. (It’s not uncommon for my shirts these days to come from sub-Saharan Africa).

But a new International Monetary Fund paper argues that sub-Saharan African is unlikely to follow the development progress of even southeastern Asian countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Bangladesh due to … well … too many babies.

From the IMF:

Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?

Louise Fox, Alun Thomas, and Cleary Haines

April 7, 2017

… Sub-Saharan Africa’s demographic trends are also different; fertility is higher and the demographic transition is happening much more slowly. Between 2000 and 2010 the labor force grew at a rate of only 1.2 percent per annum in east Asia and 1.7 percent per annum in south Asia, but 2.6 percent per annum in sub-Saharan Africa. The median age in sub-Saharan Africa is 18— seven years younger than the median age in south Asia, which is the next youngest region (Figure 3). These population trends suggest that the number of youth entering Africa’s working-age population will be rising for years to come. Between 2005 and 2020 the working-age population is projected to increase by over 200 million people, continuing the trend of the past decade. This trend is not expected to decline soon because a rapid, systematic reduction in fertility rates has yet to occur in sub-Saharan Africa.

In the 1970s the fertility rate in Asia and Latin America was identical to the rate in Africa today, but Africa’s fertility rate is falling much more slowly than in those regions at that time (Filmer and Fox 2014). …

The lack of jobs in export-oriented manufacturing is not the only factor setting Africa apart. As discussed, a sluggish demographic transition means that the labor force is growing much faster in Africa than in Asia or Latin America. This lack of demographic transition complicates the employment transformation, because even with non-agricultural, modern private sector enterprise growth as rapid and labor intensive as occurred in the past 20 years in east Asia, a similar employment transition could not occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The enterprises would not be able to absorb the same share of the labor force because the labor force would be too big.

For example, because Vietnam’s labor force grew at only two-thirds of the pace of Senegal’s over the past decade (2.1 versus 3.1 percent per annum), every dollar invested in creating labor-intensive manufacturing jobs will have a stronger effect on the structure of employment (measured as a share of the labor force) in Vietnam than in Senegal. In other words, Senegal needs 50 percent more investment in manufacturing than Vietnam needed just to bring its share of employment in industry to the level of Vietnam.

And, be honest, would you feel more optimistic investing $3 in Senegal or $2 in Vietnam?

The analysis shows that a major, and often underappreciated, factor behind the slow employment transformation in sub-Saharan Africa compared with the Asian benchmarks was demographics—a labor force growing much faster in sub-Saharan Africa.

Until very, very recently, economists used the word “demographics” as a talisman: Chad had good demographics because it has lots of children entering the labor force years, Switzerland has bad demographics for the opposite reason.

Now they are starting to admit that sub-Saharan Africa’s continued high fertility rate is … problematic.

Of all the problems facing the future of the planet, Sub-Saharan African population growth is probably has the highest ratio of Size of Problem relative to Times Mentioned. The UN’s 2015 population projections estimated that SSA would grow from a half billion people in 1990 to 4 billion in 2100. (Compare the Times Mentioned to, say, Climate Change.)

That’s a huge problem, but it’s not an insoluble problem. Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.

 
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  1. Ivy says:

    At what point do developing economies typically begin tapering off the demographic binge? Looking at the experiences of many other countries could show some lowering birth rates once more basic needs are met and infant mortality is reduced. When SSA people aren’t as hungry, and don’t need as many kids for a labor force, if that is one way how they use kids, could that induce lower growth?

    Query: How different are those SSA countries now, and likely to be over the next few generations, from the early characteristics of many other recent first world or newly developing countries with formerly high fertility?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.
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  2. OT: They are closing in on racial bias.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170411130810.htm

    Seems babies are not being exposed to enough multi-culti.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Remember your iSteve... this will end in advice for pre-natal interventions.
    , @anonymous
    I think you're burying the lede -- that if this is so, then racial bias (though race is a social construct, of course) is a biological reaction, not just a learned function of racist whitey's society.
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  3. Is this the graph that is considered the most important graph in the world?

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  4. FKA Max says: • Website

    As always, thank you very much for keeping this highly-relevant topic in your news coverage and commentary, Mr. Sailer.

    Just the other day I had a discussion/debate with someone on this topic here at the Unz Review:

    What is your take on the influence of the Catholic Church/Vatican in Africa, in particular when it comes to birth control, etc.?
    [...]
    White Davos Men Urge Africans to Maintain Sky High Fertility

    http://www.unz.com/comments/isteve/white-davos-men-urge-africans-to-maintain-sky-high-fertility/

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832037

    Right, and that is why it is not smart to blanket-denounce the Church! What they do is a very mixed bag, probably more good than bad.
    [...]
    The church is wrong to be standing in the way of birth control, but they are correct that “overpopulation” hysteria has gone too far. (At least historically it has. Not quite so much in recent years.)

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832300

    I am more than a little bit surprised though, that you are defending the Catholic Church(!!!), even if only ever so very, very mildly. That puts you in the same camp as “Agenda 21” conspiracy theory nut-jobs like “Lord” Christopher Monckton et al. in my book: http://www.wnd.com/2013/05/over-population-another-non-problem/
    [...]
    Monckton is a liveryman of the Worshipful Company of Broderers, an Officer of the Order of St John of Jerusalem, a Knight of Honour and Devotion of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, and a member of the Roman Catholic Mass Media Commission.
    [...]
    I accept your opinion, but I strongly disagree, and find it extremely odd, that an obviously highly intelligent person like yourself, would do this and hold an indefensible opinion like this.
    [...]
    THE BOGUS “DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION” THEORY
    Perhaps the single most important myth used by the Vatican to undermine concern about world population growth has been the demographic transition theory. The Vatican has promoted this myth through numerous institutions and individuals for decades.
    [...]
    DISINFORMATION CREATES WRONG PERCEPTIONS
    Then, along came Simon with his book, The Ultimate Resource, in 1981.275 Simon attempts to make the case that it is not possible to have overpopulation; that people are the ultimate resource, and the more the better.
    [...]
    With propaganda machinery in place, the Vatican set out to create many wrong perceptions, serving to undermine the scientific consensus that world overpopulation is a grave problem for the U.S. These wrong perceptions and illusions, of course, serve as obstacles to a constructive response. Why? The constructive responses almost always include controls on population growth and immigration, threatening Vatican survival.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832398

    We won’t be nine billion: Jørgen Randers at TEDxMaastricht

    Read More
    • Replies: @Fredrik
    This is why the abortion hysteria is crazy. Don't some people realize who is(and should be) aborting babies?

    Hint! It's not high IQ Whites...


    Among the 29 areas that reported cross-classified race/ethnicity data for 2013, non-Hispanic white women and non-Hispanic black women accounted for the largest percentages of abortions (37.3% and 35.6%, respectively) and Hispanic women and non-Hispanic women in the other race category accounted for smaller percentages (19.0% and 8.1%, respectively) (Table 12). Non-Hispanic white women had the lowest abortion rate (7.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (121 abortions per 1,000 live births) and non-Hispanic black women had the highest abortion rate (27.0 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (420 abortions per 1,000 live births). Data for 2013 are also reported separately by race and by ethnicity (Tables 13 and 14).
     
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/ss/ss6512a1.htm
    , @Buck Turgidson
    Randers must be some kind of evil racist, suggesting that fewer people equates with better lives for everyone. What is he trying to say? He doens't like people? of a certain color? He sure seems happy to report that there are fewer babies. There are some things you just can't say, as Steve King has learned. I expect the Thought Police to be showing up at his home soon.
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  5. truthman says:

    Great Steve, now I’m going to be depressed while working my dinner shift tonite.

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  6. unit472 says:

    Even if the investment was available Sub Saharan societies lack the social organizaton of SE Asia. Vietnam may be poor but they have an organized society. They fought the United States for a decade building the infrastructure needed to keep a large army in the field hundreds of miles from their ports. Operated modern jets and SAM systems and rebuilt their bridges and roads as fast as we could knock them down.

    Compare that to Africa. There the infrastructure falls apart from neglect and theft not bombing raids. India manages to keep locomotives operating that would be in Western museums and if most of the people are desperately poor they have a world class scientific and commercial elite. Africa only manages to stay above the primordial ooze through foreign aid and selling its natural resources to foreigners.

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    • Agree: Triumph104, Kylie
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Steve's recent post on Africa as a drinker's paradise was an eye-opener for me. I wonder how wide-spread the drinking problem is in Africa and to what extent it contributes to the general neglect.
    , @Lagertha
    haha...loved the visual of locomotives that should be museum -"institutionalized" by now!
    , @MBlanc46
    Average IQ in the 70s along wirh diminished future-time orientation and impulse control.
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  7. @Ivy
    At what point do developing economies typically begin tapering off the demographic binge? Looking at the experiences of many other countries could show some lowering birth rates once more basic needs are met and infant mortality is reduced. When SSA people aren't as hungry, and don't need as many kids for a labor force, if that is one way how they use kids, could that induce lower growth?

    Query: How different are those SSA countries now, and likely to be over the next few generations, from the early characteristics of many other recent first world or newly developing countries with formerly high fertility?

    That’s how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    Medical and public health advances probably increase fertility and survival rates prior to any beneficial downtrend in birthrate. The well-meaning humanitarian efforts by Gates, et al could end up with much more near-term harm to many before whatever purported benefits, no matter how much oversold, may kick in.
    , @ben tillman

    That’s how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.
     
    Experts?
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  8. In A Troublesome Inheritance, Wade theorizes that a low birth rate is one of the things that have held SSA back, and that population growth will hasten urbanization and industrialization there. I found his argument something of a head-scratcher.

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    • Replies: @The True and Original David
    "More population = more wealth" has been the mantra of Liberalism (in the classic economic sense) for a long time. Lincoln and his backers considered it an axiom, for example, and I, at least, haven't seen a formal case made by them or anyone else as to why.

    The mantra only ever made sense in very limited ways (e.g., more customers -- externalities be damned!; or: larger tax base -- they will cough up the money somehow!; or: more money in the collection plate, so we can build a bigger church and get even more money in the collection plate "if you've got an ass, we've got a pew").

    But doesn't the mantra's accuracy depend on the quality of the population that is expanded? A booming population of welfare cases would not tend to lead to more wealth.

    We'll make it up on volume, I guess.

    Malthus laughs in his grave.
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  9. Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.

    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn’t care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn’t care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    By that time I suspect the term "racist" will be mainly uttered by senile 80 year olds in retirement villages. It is already losing its currency.
    , @Wally
    Yet it's racist to assume that Africans always need help, can't solve their own problems.
    , @Forbes
    It's racism either way: The white man posing an answer or ignoring the question.
    , @neutral

    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn’t care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.
     
    Actually that will not happen, the overwhelming population of Africa will mean that it is they that will be deciding what lines people will be thinking. Obviously with them being in charge of places like Europe, North America and even possibly the Middle East, themselves being the global majority will no longer call that a problem.
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  10. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Not sure it’s racist to say Africa needs to get its population under control though race might be the factor that is preventing them from doing so. Low average IQ means global corporations are not interested in investing there (just as in Haiti) and without industrialization, which Africans have shown no capacity to achieve on their own, the demographic transition may not take place. Short time horizons might also be a factor. I wonder if a cheap, over-the-counter abortion pill might help solve the problem?

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    • Replies: @Lagertha
    I think women, all over the world, should all carry the e pill in their purse. This way, if you had coyote sex, unplanned sex, not yet wanting a baby sex, or were raped (I know, different!) , you know that by swallowing this pill, no fertilization can happen in that 24 hour time. This pill has been around for a long time, like 20 years in Finland. It should be in every dispenser in bathrooms where tampons/napkins/condoms are sold.
    , @AnotherGuessModel
    You're making the mistake of assuming that those Africans with many children didn't want those children. Having a large family is still social and cultural capital in SSA.
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  11. Barnard says:

    Isn’t the Gates Foundation still heavily promoting family planning in Africa? I thought they had just shifted tactics and were pretending this was part of movement to empower woman and had nothing to do with population management. Even Bill Gates has to understand the long term problems from an Africa with even 2 billion people, let alone 4 billion.

    http://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Development/Family-Planning

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    • Replies: @Lagertha
    his children are getting older...so..yeah..he is waking up..not quite "woke," but getting there. All those zombie movies and dystopian, apocalyptic movies, are very popular for the age of his kids and older ones. Reality seeps in slower to parents who are older.
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  12. BB753 says:

    “It’s not uncommon for my shirts these days to come from sub-Saharan Africa”

    Steve, this is depressing! Tomorrow I’ll send some money your way so you can at least afford shirts made in Bangladesh!

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    • LOL: Frau Katze
    • Replies: @Lot
    I don't think I've seen SSA countries on any clothing I own, and a fair amount comes from WalMart/Target/Old Navy.
    , @Almost Missouri
    I'm sure we hit this subject in the comments a few months ago, but those shirts from sub-Saharan Africa are made in sweatshops run and staffed by expatriate Chinese in order to dodge US and EU import tariffs. I suppose someone with dark skin gets a kickback somewhere along the way, but the reality is that most of that economic activity is happening in what amounts to a de facto Chinese economic zone that just happens to have an African postal address.
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  13. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    “Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.”

    The real horror comes from PC that says non-black nations are not supposed to say NO to black invasion.

    We should now use invasion for immigration. Today’s immigration waves are invasive because it’s about massive numbers of people who are racially and culturally different taking over your nation.

    There as a time when most immigrants to Germany were German ethnics in Eastern Europe.
    But now, it’s invasion as non-Germans are arriving to take over Germany.

    Invaders, not immigrants.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    There was a time when a population problem like this would solve itself -- through sheer poverty and starvation.

    We won't allow that to happen in this day and age... but this creates problems of it's own.

    I'm actually more worried about what this means for Europe. There will be plenty of Africans to go around in the future - and of course, many of these people will find their way to Europe.

    As individuals many Africans will be in dire situations - but as a civilization, it's Europeans who are really in danger.

    If the people of Europe can't find the collective will to say 'NO' to desperately needy Africans, it really will be game over for them.

    It's something that we're beginning to see already. The issue is going to ramp up quickly, and I am not optimistic about the future based on what I've observed so far.
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  14. (Filmer and Fox 2014)

    As in Robert Filmer, the great apologist for absolute monarchy? Sadly Locked out of the Western political pantheon.

    Africa’s real problem is underpopulation. They should import the best and the brightest from Mexico.

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  15. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    OT…

    President Kushner takes over the NSC:

    http://freebeacon.com/national-security/new-front-in-white-house-civil-war-as-kushner-asserts-authority-at-nsc/


    “Jared has been pegged as the ‘shadow secretary of state,’” said the White House official. “But in a way he’s kind of also the shadow national security adviser and secretary of defense.”

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  16. I thought we were told that having lots of people created lots of needs which creates jobs, or does that only apply when lots of people sneak into our economy.

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  17. Anonym says:
    @candid_observer

    Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.
     
    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn't care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn’t care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    By that time I suspect the term “racist” will be mainly uttered by senile 80 year olds in retirement villages. It is already losing its currency.

    Read More
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  18. Wally says:

    IF ‘global warming’ was the problem that the left alleges, then population control would be the number one step required to mitigate it.

    However, the left take a pass on breeding rates because the big breeders are black & non-white.

    More proof that it’s all about the left destroying the euro-white people, culture, not ‘the environment’.

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    • Agree: ben tillman
    • Replies: @Lagertha
    I so agree. Population must go down to save the world. I care more about animals (they are doomed in my lifetime) than people. We have contraceptives and, yeah, like a brain, so we should be smarter.
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  19. @another fred
    OT: They are closing in on racial bias.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170411130810.htm

    Seems babies are not being exposed to enough multi-culti.

    Remember your iSteve… this will end in advice for pre-natal interventions.

    Read More
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  20. @unit472
    Even if the investment was available Sub Saharan societies lack the social organizaton of SE Asia. Vietnam may be poor but they have an organized society. They fought the United States for a decade building the infrastructure needed to keep a large army in the field hundreds of miles from their ports. Operated modern jets and SAM systems and rebuilt their bridges and roads as fast as we could knock them down.

    Compare that to Africa. There the infrastructure falls apart from neglect and theft not bombing raids. India manages to keep locomotives operating that would be in Western museums and if most of the people are desperately poor they have a world class scientific and commercial elite. Africa only manages to stay above the primordial ooze through foreign aid and selling its natural resources to foreigners.

    Steve’s recent post on Africa as a drinker’s paradise was an eye-opener for me. I wonder how wide-spread the drinking problem is in Africa and to what extent it contributes to the general neglect.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ed
    Aid organizations have stopped giving aid directly to fathers whenever possible for many years now. They realized that if they gave aid to the men the money wouldn't be used for the family. Instead the men would spend the money on drink and/or women.
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  21. ‘… has managed to get its fertility under control…’

    Um,

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/12/forgotten-french-village-registers-first-birth-half-century/

    Poorly guarded old folks countries will have difficulty keeping out anybody’s young uns.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Williams

    Poorly guarded old folks countries will have difficulty keeping out anybody’s young uns.
     
    White people, when they put their minds to it and act with collective purpose, are remarkably adept at keeping non-whites down, even when outrageously outnumbered. Isn't that pretty much the only thing they're teaching in colleges these days?
    , @Laurel
    Hence the interest in robots.
    Old dudes with robot army > young guys with AK-47s.
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  22. Wally says:
    @candid_observer

    Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.
     
    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn't care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    Yet it’s racist to assume that Africans always need help, can’t solve their own problems.

    Read More
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  23. Regor says:

    The only way the UN, the EU and other international organizations are going to deal with the problem, once they finally realize its gravity, is by promoting late stage feminism. That’s all they will be capable of coming up with as a solution as nobody will call them racist for doing that.

    As much as that has “worked” for the Western world and beyond, I doubt African women will be as willing to diss their men as ours were to us.

    So even such destructive policy will take very long to work.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    This might work or might not. The standard HBD theory as far as I understand is that subsaharan Africa is much less patriarchal than Eurasia. The women run the show anyway. Then again the theory could also be wrong. At least in the muslim regions feminism would help. But right now Muslims are very self-assure. They won´t change a bit.
    , @Frau Katze
    SJW feminists already ignore grossly misogynist Muslim countries. Ignoring over populated SSA countries will not be a problem.
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  24. Wazoo says:

    Throw in a little global warming and political unrest, and mass starvation is likely over the next few decades. The locals will eat every animal bigger than a cat.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lagertha
    They are already eating cat, dogs, rats and pigeons in Venezuela.
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  25. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @another fred
    OT: They are closing in on racial bias.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170411130810.htm

    Seems babies are not being exposed to enough multi-culti.

    I think you’re burying the lede — that if this is so, then racial bias (though race is a social construct, of course) is a biological reaction, not just a learned function of racist whitey’s society.

    Read More
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  26. Arclight says:

    The upshot of all this is that no matter what happens, North America and Western Europe are still going to be light years ahead of most of the planet in terms of the quality of life they offer, but just how good it is will depend on having the willpower to meet the demands of the 3rd worlders that they be able to migrate to more attractive countries with a firm “No.”

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    • Replies: @CrunchybutRealistCon
    Any world worth living in for those with IQs over 90 will be defined by Hard Borders between economic & IQ delineated regions. If Barbara Lerner Spectre and Bret Stephens have their way w/ mandatory multi-cult & mass subsidies towards reckless procreation by the illiterate masses, it will be a dystopia of never ending white flight towards ever more remote towns or into gated communities that will be mini Fortresses. We either have barriers around our countries, or around our communities.
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  27. Steve, You said ‘babies.’ You are channeling Steve King. Everyone knows that we can’t be talking about babies in this day and age, boy this that trigger just about every right thinking person out there. Gotta be ‘births’ or ‘fertility rate.’ But babies, whoa nellie, that seems to cross a line.

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  28. @anony-mouse
    '... has managed to get its fertility under control...'

    Um,

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/12/forgotten-french-village-registers-first-birth-half-century/

    Poorly guarded old folks countries will have difficulty keeping out anybody's young uns.

    Poorly guarded old folks countries will have difficulty keeping out anybody’s young uns.

    White people, when they put their minds to it and act with collective purpose, are remarkably adept at keeping non-whites down, even when outrageously outnumbered. Isn’t that pretty much the only thing they’re teaching in colleges these days?

    Read More
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  29. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    This guy Randers (in the video by Commenter four) is nuts. He treats the world like an undifferentiated mass of identical human breeding units, each with the same identical culture, each driven by the same motivations, each sharing the same beliefs, values.

    White Europeans have had sub- replacement fertility for decades now. Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits. Sure, they will slow down eventually, but by that time, Europeans will essentially be bred out of existence.

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    • Replies: @Buck Turgidson
    Randers is living in a dream world. He showed that graph of declining global fertility. He wasn't using Steve's graph above. I am going with Steve's graph. Randers needs to travel Africa for a few weeks and maybe get his eyes opened. Needs to "get out of the office", as they say.
    , @rw95
    India's birth rate has been declining for some time now. They're still above replacement rate, but they're steadily slowing down.

    How many white children have you had?
    , @Art Deco
    Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits.

    India's tfr is 2.5 children per woman per lifetime and declining, so, no. Africa's fertility rate is declining, just not rapidly enough to please the IMF.
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  30. @Arclight
    The upshot of all this is that no matter what happens, North America and Western Europe are still going to be light years ahead of most of the planet in terms of the quality of life they offer, but just how good it is will depend on having the willpower to meet the demands of the 3rd worlders that they be able to migrate to more attractive countries with a firm "No."

    Any world worth living in for those with IQs over 90 will be defined by Hard Borders between economic & IQ delineated regions. If Barbara Lerner Spectre and Bret Stephens have their way w/ mandatory multi-cult & mass subsidies towards reckless procreation by the illiterate masses, it will be a dystopia of never ending white flight towards ever more remote towns or into gated communities that will be mini Fortresses. We either have barriers around our countries, or around our communities.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lagertha
    your last 2 sentences....that's been the case for the last decade and more, as far as development.

    What I find interesting is: as cities gentrify (like my ole' beloved NYC), and push more poor people to ever outer boroughs; and, people with means have gone "full remote," - they have moved to less populated areas if they can work remotely, or be semi-retired.

    Then, when there is ultimately a "situation," the people who are still "across the street," from poor people, will be toast. Dystopia is built-in to every metropolitan area in this country.

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  31. Ivy says:
    @Steve Sailer
    That's how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.

    Medical and public health advances probably increase fertility and survival rates prior to any beneficial downtrend in birthrate. The well-meaning humanitarian efforts by Gates, et al could end up with much more near-term harm to many before whatever purported benefits, no matter how much oversold, may kick in.

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  32. Couldn’t Melinda Gates sell them on contraception as a form of female empowerment or something?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Melinda Gates is working on the female empowerment angle.
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  33. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    OT…

    So what’s Goldman Sachs say about Trump breaking all of his campaign promises to them? Just kidding! Trump is only breaking the promises he made to his voters.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-takes-a-centrist-tack-on-economic-policy-abandoning-campaign-pledges/2017/04/12/95376192-1fc3-11e7-be2a-3a1fb24d4671_story.html

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  34. Laurel says:
    @anony-mouse
    '... has managed to get its fertility under control...'

    Um,

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/12/forgotten-french-village-registers-first-birth-half-century/

    Poorly guarded old folks countries will have difficulty keeping out anybody's young uns.

    Hence the interest in robots.
    Old dudes with robot army > young guys with AK-47s.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lagertha
    Hahhaa: a Lego Army!
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  35. Forbes says:
    @candid_observer

    Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.
     
    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn't care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    It’s racism either way: The white man posing an answer or ignoring the question.

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  36. The idiocy of supposedly sophisticated people hailing a concave funnel age structure as some kind of economic fuel is just amazing. My entire life I have been told low birth rates are good. The social studies and environmental science textbooks that my child is issued in my deep red state have entire chapters with multiple graphs and maps correlating birthrates to education, income, lifespan, you name the parameter. Libs spent much of the 20th century touting this stuff along with family planning and birth control. The demographic journey from hunter-gatherer to subsistance agriculture to early industrialization to technological society is the one key anthropological concept that every kid learns.

    We have the spectacle of 15 year old children being told the cold truth about birth rates and prosperity in bumfuck public schools while Harvard Phd’s believe in demographic tooth fairies.

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  37. biz says:

    Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.

    What are people not now doing to encourage lower fertility in Africa that they did or are doing in other regions?

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  38. Until very, very recently, economists used the word “demographics” as a talisman: Chad had good demographics because it has lots of children entering the labor force years, Switzerland has bad demographics for the opposite reason.

    That is a phenomenon of the last 30 years, when economic growth exceeding 2% arrived began been seen in what used to be called underdeveloped economies and economists started thinking of them as “emerging markets.”

    A young labor force became a good thing, in their minds, and population growth rates of 4-6% percent didn’t matter if economies could grow at 7-10% like the East Asian tiger economies .

    Earlier, from the 1950s onward, the “population explosion”, as it used to be called, was the single biggest worry of development economists and was front and center in discussions about countries like Burma and Ghana, who were, back then, somewhat promising economies.

    It is also amusing to note that the terminology evolved over a 60 year span. From “backward countries”, in the late 1940s, to “underdeveloped countries” in the 1950s, to “less-developed countries” in the 1970s, to finally, “emerging markets”, in the 1990s.

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    • Replies: @Anonym
    I always thought that Detroit's biggest problem was not having enough black people. If there could only be more of them, especially young men, their economy and crime rate would be in much better shape.
    , @Lagertha
    haha. What about all the rhetoric of: typically developing children ; atypical children; under-served children; developmentally under-served children; mainstreamed non-typically developing children....children with atypical developmental situations, etc., etc. etc.
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  39. Coemgen says:

    Ebola.

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  40. Anonym says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Until very, very recently, economists used the word “demographics” as a talisman: Chad had good demographics because it has lots of children entering the labor force years, Switzerland has bad demographics for the opposite reason.
     
    That is a phenomenon of the last 30 years, when economic growth exceeding 2% arrived began been seen in what used to be called underdeveloped economies and economists started thinking of them as "emerging markets."

    A young labor force became a good thing, in their minds, and population growth rates of 4-6% percent didn't matter if economies could grow at 7-10% like the East Asian tiger economies .

    Earlier, from the 1950s onward, the "population explosion", as it used to be called, was the single biggest worry of development economists and was front and center in discussions about countries like Burma and Ghana, who were, back then, somewhat promising economies.

    It is also amusing to note that the terminology evolved over a 60 year span. From "backward countries", in the late 1940s, to "underdeveloped countries" in the 1950s, to "less-developed countries" in the 1970s, to finally, "emerging markets", in the 1990s.

    I always thought that Detroit’s biggest problem was not having enough black people. If there could only be more of them, especially young men, their economy and crime rate would be in much better shape.

    Read More
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  41. neutral says:
    @candid_observer

    Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.
     
    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn't care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    Of course, when the population problem in Africa becomes overwhelming, the line will be that our generation was racist because we didn’t care enough about Africans to work on such a glaring problem.

    Actually that will not happen, the overwhelming population of Africa will mean that it is they that will be deciding what lines people will be thinking. Obviously with them being in charge of places like Europe, North America and even possibly the Middle East, themselves being the global majority will no longer call that a problem.

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  42. I’m sure this isn’t the first time someone has asked: Who is going to feed all those people?

    Surely they won’t be able to feed themselves. The population growth is a result of the benefits received from the more advanced world.

    There will come a point at which our own people will refuse to sacrifice for them. Some of us have already reached that point. We’ve been told for years that we should reduce our use of resources, “because the Earth can’t support all the people unless we all sacrifice.” BS. We shouldn’t sacrifice at all just so somebody else can keep on having babies.

    If I’m wrong and we’re not feeding them or won’t be asked to feed them, than never mind. If I’m right, there will come a point when we quit and they enjoy mass starvation.

    Problem solved. By nature — and the nature of man. African population will never reach the projection.

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  43. @Laurelhurst
    Couldn't Melinda Gates sell them on contraception as a form of female empowerment or something?

    Melinda Gates is working on the female empowerment angle.

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  44. Anon says: • Disclaimer

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  45. Lagertha says:

    I sensed this decades ago…with all the BIAFRA movements and posters in the 70-80′s. I had a terrible feeling that even 30-40 years ago, babies don’t survive in Africa because of the climate and natural resources. It is not a race thing; it is a Mother Nature thing.

    Even, when I was watching Daktari /Mutual of Omaha Wild Kingdom(1969) I knew the animals were as vulnerable as the people in Africa. It was hard watching the animals gorging on flesh (other animals) for 9-10 year- old eyes.

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  46. james9 says:

    the solution (says the IMF) duh is to emigrate to america…

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  47. Lagertha says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Until very, very recently, economists used the word “demographics” as a talisman: Chad had good demographics because it has lots of children entering the labor force years, Switzerland has bad demographics for the opposite reason.
     
    That is a phenomenon of the last 30 years, when economic growth exceeding 2% arrived began been seen in what used to be called underdeveloped economies and economists started thinking of them as "emerging markets."

    A young labor force became a good thing, in their minds, and population growth rates of 4-6% percent didn't matter if economies could grow at 7-10% like the East Asian tiger economies .

    Earlier, from the 1950s onward, the "population explosion", as it used to be called, was the single biggest worry of development economists and was front and center in discussions about countries like Burma and Ghana, who were, back then, somewhat promising economies.

    It is also amusing to note that the terminology evolved over a 60 year span. From "backward countries", in the late 1940s, to "underdeveloped countries" in the 1950s, to "less-developed countries" in the 1970s, to finally, "emerging markets", in the 1990s.

    haha. What about all the rhetoric of: typically developing children ; atypical children; under-served children; developmentally under-served children; mainstreamed non-typically developing children….children with atypical developmental situations, etc., etc. etc.

    Read More
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  48. Lagertha says:
    @Laurel
    Hence the interest in robots.
    Old dudes with robot army > young guys with AK-47s.

    Hahhaa: a Lego Army!

    Read More
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  49. Lagertha says:
    @Anonymous
    Not sure it's racist to say Africa needs to get its population under control though race might be the factor that is preventing them from doing so. Low average IQ means global corporations are not interested in investing there (just as in Haiti) and without industrialization, which Africans have shown no capacity to achieve on their own, the demographic transition may not take place. Short time horizons might also be a factor. I wonder if a cheap, over-the-counter abortion pill might help solve the problem?

    I think women, all over the world, should all carry the e pill in their purse. This way, if you had coyote sex, unplanned sex, not yet wanting a baby sex, or were raped (I know, different!) , you know that by swallowing this pill, no fertilization can happen in that 24 hour time. This pill has been around for a long time, like 20 years in Finland. It should be in every dispenser in bathrooms where tampons/napkins/condoms are sold.

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  50. Lagertha says:
    @unit472
    Even if the investment was available Sub Saharan societies lack the social organizaton of SE Asia. Vietnam may be poor but they have an organized society. They fought the United States for a decade building the infrastructure needed to keep a large army in the field hundreds of miles from their ports. Operated modern jets and SAM systems and rebuilt their bridges and roads as fast as we could knock them down.

    Compare that to Africa. There the infrastructure falls apart from neglect and theft not bombing raids. India manages to keep locomotives operating that would be in Western museums and if most of the people are desperately poor they have a world class scientific and commercial elite. Africa only manages to stay above the primordial ooze through foreign aid and selling its natural resources to foreigners.

    haha…loved the visual of locomotives that should be museum -”institutionalized” by now!

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  51. Lagertha says:
    @Wazoo
    Throw in a little global warming and political unrest, and mass starvation is likely over the next few decades. The locals will eat every animal bigger than a cat.

    They are already eating cat, dogs, rats and pigeons in Venezuela.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    Bugs and other creepy-crawlies are widely available in many SE Asian countries. Think of tucking in to a spread featuring scorpion skewers with cricket chasers and a dash of cockroaches as a palate cleanser. Of course, western palates are jaded, having been conditioned to such niceties as lack of famine. No word on how the rain of frogs may be impacted by global warming. In California, all the rain brought global worming.
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  52. Lagertha says:
    @CrunchybutRealistCon
    Any world worth living in for those with IQs over 90 will be defined by Hard Borders between economic & IQ delineated regions. If Barbara Lerner Spectre and Bret Stephens have their way w/ mandatory multi-cult & mass subsidies towards reckless procreation by the illiterate masses, it will be a dystopia of never ending white flight towards ever more remote towns or into gated communities that will be mini Fortresses. We either have barriers around our countries, or around our communities.

    your last 2 sentences….that’s been the case for the last decade and more, as far as development.

    What I find interesting is: as cities gentrify (like my ole’ beloved NYC), and push more poor people to ever outer boroughs; and, people with means have gone “full remote,” – they have moved to less populated areas if they can work remotely, or be semi-retired.

    Then, when there is ultimately a “situation,” the people who are still “across the street,” from poor people, will be toast. Dystopia is built-in to every metropolitan area in this country.

    Read More
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  53. Lagertha says:
    @Wally
    IF 'global warming' was the problem that the left alleges, then population control would be the number one step required to mitigate it.

    However, the left take a pass on breeding rates because the big breeders are black & non-white.

    More proof that it's all about the left destroying the euro-white people, culture, not 'the environment'.

    I so agree. Population must go down to save the world. I care more about animals (they are doomed in my lifetime) than people. We have contraceptives and, yeah, like a brain, so we should be smarter.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    On the other hand, these wretches have to be taught how to USE a contraceptive. There is a story that back in the 60s UNESCO reps were handing out condoms to the denizens of what was then East Pakistan who then proceeded to parade around with wooden poles. And what was on top of the poles? Yep...condoms.
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  54. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I did a few google searches to see if Paul Kagame, in his quest to be Africa’s Lee Kuan Yew, is tackling this. I got a bunch of hits from 2007 that seem to indicate that he fully recognized the problem, especially for a small country like Rwanda. I wonder if anyone has any updates from the decade since?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Earl Lemongrab
    In Rwanda population control is complicated by the "war of the cradle" between the Tutsi & Hutu, especially after a third of all Tutsi on the planet were hacked to death in 1994. My sense is that after a late '90s Tutsi baby boom, Rwanda has worked pretty hard to get its birthrates down in that tiny, overpopulated country. The last statistics show a drop from 6.2 children per mother in 1992 to 4.2 in 2014.
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  55. Lagertha says:
    @Barnard
    Isn't the Gates Foundation still heavily promoting family planning in Africa? I thought they had just shifted tactics and were pretending this was part of movement to empower woman and had nothing to do with population management. Even Bill Gates has to understand the long term problems from an Africa with even 2 billion people, let alone 4 billion.

    http://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Development/Family-Planning

    his children are getting older…so..yeah..he is waking up..not quite “woke,” but getting there. All those zombie movies and dystopian, apocalyptic movies, are very popular for the age of his kids and older ones. Reality seeps in slower to parents who are older.

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  56. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    PC people say ‘race is the most dangerous idea’.

    No, ‘racism’ is the most dangerous idea. Race is real, but ‘racism’ prevents honest discussion of this most important subject.

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  57. RIP elephants, giraffes, rhinos etc…Africa is the last bastion of big Pleistocene charismatic megafauna and there ain’t gonna be any room left if things keep up. I mean, I know I should care care more about people more, its just kinda sad when you can see things coming. Wonder if the leftist environmentalists will ever confront that issue. They’ll probably just use it as an excuse for more human “migration” to Europe.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    They will probably survive in the less densely populated and better run parts of Southern Africa for at least another century. I'd rank African dystopias as follows:

    Southern Sahara region from Mali to Sudan
    Congo
    Somalia
    West Africa
    the rest of Central Africa
    East Africa
    Southern Africa
    South Africa and Madagascar
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  58. anon says: • Disclaimer

    Personally I wouldn’t care less what black Africans did, just so long as they just did it in black Africa.

    Unfortunately blacks in Africa won’t stay there. They invite themselevs to the west and we lack the self-respect to stop them.

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  59. Fredrik says:
    @FKA Max
    As always, thank you very much for keeping this highly-relevant topic in your news coverage and commentary, Mr. Sailer.

    Just the other day I had a discussion/debate with someone on this topic here at the Unz Review:

    What is your take on the influence of the Catholic Church/Vatican in Africa, in particular when it comes to birth control, etc.?
    [...]
    White Davos Men Urge Africans to Maintain Sky High Fertility

    http://www.unz.com/comments/isteve/white-davos-men-urge-africans-to-maintain-sky-high-fertility/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832037

    Right, and that is why it is not smart to blanket-denounce the Church! What they do is a very mixed bag, probably more good than bad.
    [...]
    The church is wrong to be standing in the way of birth control, but they are correct that “overpopulation” hysteria has gone too far. (At least historically it has. Not quite so much in recent years.)
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832300


    I am more than a little bit surprised though, that you are defending the Catholic Church(!!!), even if only ever so very, very mildly. That puts you in the same camp as “Agenda 21” conspiracy theory nut-jobs like “Lord” Christopher Monckton et al. in my book: http://www.wnd.com/2013/05/over-population-another-non-problem/
    [...]
    Monckton is a liveryman of the Worshipful Company of Broderers, an Officer of the Order of St John of Jerusalem, a Knight of Honour and Devotion of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, and a member of the Roman Catholic Mass Media Commission.
    [...]
    I accept your opinion, but I strongly disagree, and find it extremely odd, that an obviously highly intelligent person like yourself, would do this and hold an indefensible opinion like this.
    [...]
    THE BOGUS “DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION” THEORY
    Perhaps the single most important myth used by the Vatican to undermine concern about world population growth has been the demographic transition theory. The Vatican has promoted this myth through numerous institutions and individuals for decades.
    [...]
    DISINFORMATION CREATES WRONG PERCEPTIONS
    Then, along came Simon with his book, The Ultimate Resource, in 1981.275 Simon attempts to make the case that it is not possible to have overpopulation; that people are the ultimate resource, and the more the better.
    [...]
    With propaganda machinery in place, the Vatican set out to create many wrong perceptions, serving to undermine the scientific consensus that world overpopulation is a grave problem for the U.S. These wrong perceptions and illusions, of course, serve as obstacles to a constructive response. Why? The constructive responses almost always include controls on population growth and immigration, threatening Vatican survival.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832398

    We won’t be nine billion: Jørgen Randers at TEDxMaastricht

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73X8R9NrX3w

    This is why the abortion hysteria is crazy. Don’t some people realize who is(and should be) aborting babies?

    Hint! It’s not high IQ Whites…

    Among the 29 areas that reported cross-classified race/ethnicity data for 2013, non-Hispanic white women and non-Hispanic black women accounted for the largest percentages of abortions (37.3% and 35.6%, respectively) and Hispanic women and non-Hispanic women in the other race category accounted for smaller percentages (19.0% and 8.1%, respectively) (Table 12). Non-Hispanic white women had the lowest abortion rate (7.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (121 abortions per 1,000 live births) and non-Hispanic black women had the highest abortion rate (27.0 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (420 abortions per 1,000 live births). Data for 2013 are also reported separately by race and by ethnicity (Tables 13 and 14).

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/ss/ss6512a1.htm

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    • Replies: @Das
    70% of abortions in the US are to non-white women.

    I think it's likely that America would already be majority non-white if it wasn't for Roe v. Wade.

    If the pro-life movement ever succeeds, we'll have "white genocide" for real.
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  60. @Anonymous
    I did a few google searches to see if Paul Kagame, in his quest to be Africa's Lee Kuan Yew, is tackling this. I got a bunch of hits from 2007 that seem to indicate that he fully recognized the problem, especially for a small country like Rwanda. I wonder if anyone has any updates from the decade since?

    In Rwanda population control is complicated by the “war of the cradle” between the Tutsi & Hutu, especially after a third of all Tutsi on the planet were hacked to death in 1994. My sense is that after a late ’90s Tutsi baby boom, Rwanda has worked pretty hard to get its birthrates down in that tiny, overpopulated country. The last statistics show a drop from 6.2 children per mother in 1992 to 4.2 in 2014.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    Hutu, Tutsi. I never understood what legitimate grievances, if any, each side may have had that led to slaughter.
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  61. notice says:

    I’m afraid the African overpopulation crisis could become a refugee crisis for the West. As long as Western Elites are allowed to live in exclusive securitized areas and attend private schools, I don’t think they will care about the new non-Westernized humans the rest of us ordinary people are made to endure here. I hope I’m wrong.

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  62. Lot says:
    @BB753
    "It’s not uncommon for my shirts these days to come from sub-Saharan Africa"

    Steve, this is depressing! Tomorrow I'll send some money your way so you can at least afford shirts made in Bangladesh!

    I don’t think I’ve seen SSA countries on any clothing I own, and a fair amount comes from WalMart/Target/Old Navy.

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  63. Lot says:
    @Senator Brundlefly
    RIP elephants, giraffes, rhinos etc...Africa is the last bastion of big Pleistocene charismatic megafauna and there ain't gonna be any room left if things keep up. I mean, I know I should care care more about people more, its just kinda sad when you can see things coming. Wonder if the leftist environmentalists will ever confront that issue. They'll probably just use it as an excuse for more human "migration" to Europe.

    They will probably survive in the less densely populated and better run parts of Southern Africa for at least another century. I’d rank African dystopias as follows:

    Southern Sahara region from Mali to Sudan
    Congo
    Somalia
    West Africa
    the rest of Central Africa
    East Africa
    Southern Africa
    South Africa and Madagascar

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    • Replies: @Ed
    The looming implosions of the Congo and Nigeria are going to be frightful.

    I looked at Liberia's GDP per capita as determined by the World Bank, it's never been above $500 since 1960.

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  64. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Don’t worry Steve.

    Those ‘oh-so-clever’ bastards at The Economist magazine will strongly recommend that the solution of all of Europe’s problems is the uncontrolled immigration of an unlimited number of black Africans – and those dumb bastard woodenheads at the EU commission will heartily agree – after all they are ‘clever’ people.
    Little is certain in this life, but I can give you a gold-plated, cast-iron guarantee that, effectively, black Africa will relocate to Europe, so it’s Europe’s problem, not Africa’s.

    Brexit was the right thing to do. Nigel Farage was the unwitting savior of Britain.

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  65. Anony says:

    Only West Africans and Eritreans migrate in large number.

    More should be done to help bring stability in Nigeria. Regime change operations should be launched against Eritrea.

    Why?

    If there is peace and democracy in these countries then the rules can be modified to deny asylum and deport. Right now it’s impossible under current rules to deport back to a warzone or a dictatorship under UN sanctions (Eritrea).

    Instead of whining about this issue, there should be some effort to propose solutions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    it is nearly impossible to deport into any African country right now in Europa. The only region to which European countries deport in significant numbers is the Balkan peninsula.
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  66. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anon
    "Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist."

    The real horror comes from PC that says non-black nations are not supposed to say NO to black invasion.

    We should now use invasion for immigration. Today's immigration waves are invasive because it's about massive numbers of people who are racially and culturally different taking over your nation.

    There as a time when most immigrants to Germany were German ethnics in Eastern Europe.
    But now, it's invasion as non-Germans are arriving to take over Germany.

    Invaders, not immigrants.

    There was a time when a population problem like this would solve itself — through sheer poverty and starvation.

    We won’t allow that to happen in this day and age… but this creates problems of it’s own.

    I’m actually more worried about what this means for Europe. There will be plenty of Africans to go around in the future – and of course, many of these people will find their way to Europe.

    As individuals many Africans will be in dire situations – but as a civilization, it’s Europeans who are really in danger.

    If the people of Europe can’t find the collective will to say ‘NO’ to desperately needy Africans, it really will be game over for them.

    It’s something that we’re beginning to see already. The issue is going to ramp up quickly, and I am not optimistic about the future based on what I’ve observed so far.

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    • Replies: @Randy the Auditor

    If the people of Europe can’t find the collective will to say ‘NO’ to desperately needy Africans, it really will be game over for them.
     
    It's not the "people" of Europe who welcome the invaders; it's the rulers (Angela Merkel, for example).
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  67. @Regor
    The only way the UN, the EU and other international organizations are going to deal with the problem, once they finally realize its gravity, is by promoting late stage feminism. That's all they will be capable of coming up with as a solution as nobody will call them racist for doing that.

    As much as that has "worked" for the Western world and beyond, I doubt African women will be as willing to diss their men as ours were to us.

    So even such destructive policy will take very long to work.

    This might work or might not. The standard HBD theory as far as I understand is that subsaharan Africa is much less patriarchal than Eurasia. The women run the show anyway. Then again the theory could also be wrong. At least in the muslim regions feminism would help. But right now Muslims are very self-assure. They won´t change a bit.

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  68. @Anony
    Only West Africans and Eritreans migrate in large number.

    More should be done to help bring stability in Nigeria. Regime change operations should be launched against Eritrea.

    Why?

    If there is peace and democracy in these countries then the rules can be modified to deny asylum and deport. Right now it's impossible under current rules to deport back to a warzone or a dictatorship under UN sanctions (Eritrea).

    Instead of whining about this issue, there should be some effort to propose solutions.

    it is nearly impossible to deport into any African country right now in Europa. The only region to which European countries deport in significant numbers is the Balkan peninsula.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anony
    "nearly impossible to deport into any African country" Saying categorical things like that doesn't help with solutions. If there is one Islamic war that the US should assist a government in fighting it is Nigeria as peace in Nigeria makes it easier to deport.
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  69. Nico says:

    That’s a huge problem, but it’s not an insoluble problem. Almost all of the rest of the world has managed to get its fertility under control, but the rest of the world has largely stopped encouraging black Africans to do the same out of fear of being seen as racist.

    At some point maybe it would be helpful to throw in the towel and admit some sort of Black Exceptionalism in such respects, though not of course of the good kind. I am unaware of a single Eurasian people whose descendants have shown the chronic utter incapacity for self-sustained civilization of any degree over a period of as many centuries as Africans and their unmixed or mostly unmixed descendants have.

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  70. Ed says:
    @Chrisnonymous
    Steve's recent post on Africa as a drinker's paradise was an eye-opener for me. I wonder how wide-spread the drinking problem is in Africa and to what extent it contributes to the general neglect.

    Aid organizations have stopped giving aid directly to fathers whenever possible for many years now. They realized that if they gave aid to the men the money wouldn’t be used for the family. Instead the men would spend the money on drink and/or women.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    So if the money is pissed away, fewer children would live?

    What's the downside?
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  71. Das says:
    @Fredrik
    This is why the abortion hysteria is crazy. Don't some people realize who is(and should be) aborting babies?

    Hint! It's not high IQ Whites...


    Among the 29 areas that reported cross-classified race/ethnicity data for 2013, non-Hispanic white women and non-Hispanic black women accounted for the largest percentages of abortions (37.3% and 35.6%, respectively) and Hispanic women and non-Hispanic women in the other race category accounted for smaller percentages (19.0% and 8.1%, respectively) (Table 12). Non-Hispanic white women had the lowest abortion rate (7.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (121 abortions per 1,000 live births) and non-Hispanic black women had the highest abortion rate (27.0 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) and ratio (420 abortions per 1,000 live births). Data for 2013 are also reported separately by race and by ethnicity (Tables 13 and 14).
     
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/ss/ss6512a1.htm

    70% of abortions in the US are to non-white women.

    I think it’s likely that America would already be majority non-white if it wasn’t for Roe v. Wade.

    If the pro-life movement ever succeeds, we’ll have “white genocide” for real.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    Planned Parenthood achieved a major goal when, last year more black babies were aborted than born in NYC.
    , @Triumph104
    The only abortion doctor in Mississippi is a homosexual black man who flies in from Chicago. In the US, black women are four to five times as likely to get an abortion as white women, yet black women are almost absent from the abortion debate. Black and white women have about the same number of children because about half of black pregnancies are aborted. Forty-five percent of women who get abortions have had a previous abortion. Women on Medicaid are three times as likely to get an abortion as women who are not.

    I am sure Bill Gates is aware that without abortions, births in Africa will remain high. Since 1960, the fertility rate in South Africa fallen from 6.17 to 2.41 children per women. South Africa offers abortion on demand.
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  72. @FKA Max
    As always, thank you very much for keeping this highly-relevant topic in your news coverage and commentary, Mr. Sailer.

    Just the other day I had a discussion/debate with someone on this topic here at the Unz Review:

    What is your take on the influence of the Catholic Church/Vatican in Africa, in particular when it comes to birth control, etc.?
    [...]
    White Davos Men Urge Africans to Maintain Sky High Fertility

    http://www.unz.com/comments/isteve/white-davos-men-urge-africans-to-maintain-sky-high-fertility/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832037

    Right, and that is why it is not smart to blanket-denounce the Church! What they do is a very mixed bag, probably more good than bad.
    [...]
    The church is wrong to be standing in the way of birth control, but they are correct that “overpopulation” hysteria has gone too far. (At least historically it has. Not quite so much in recent years.)
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832300


    I am more than a little bit surprised though, that you are defending the Catholic Church(!!!), even if only ever so very, very mildly. That puts you in the same camp as “Agenda 21” conspiracy theory nut-jobs like “Lord” Christopher Monckton et al. in my book: http://www.wnd.com/2013/05/over-population-another-non-problem/
    [...]
    Monckton is a liveryman of the Worshipful Company of Broderers, an Officer of the Order of St John of Jerusalem, a Knight of Honour and Devotion of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, and a member of the Roman Catholic Mass Media Commission.
    [...]
    I accept your opinion, but I strongly disagree, and find it extremely odd, that an obviously highly intelligent person like yourself, would do this and hold an indefensible opinion like this.
    [...]
    THE BOGUS “DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION” THEORY
    Perhaps the single most important myth used by the Vatican to undermine concern about world population growth has been the demographic transition theory. The Vatican has promoted this myth through numerous institutions and individuals for decades.
    [...]
    DISINFORMATION CREATES WRONG PERCEPTIONS
    Then, along came Simon with his book, The Ultimate Resource, in 1981.275 Simon attempts to make the case that it is not possible to have overpopulation; that people are the ultimate resource, and the more the better.
    [...]
    With propaganda machinery in place, the Vatican set out to create many wrong perceptions, serving to undermine the scientific consensus that world overpopulation is a grave problem for the U.S. These wrong perceptions and illusions, of course, serve as obstacles to a constructive response. Why? The constructive responses almost always include controls on population growth and immigration, threatening Vatican survival.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/iq-does-not-exist-lead-poisoning-aside/#comment-1832398

    We won’t be nine billion: Jørgen Randers at TEDxMaastricht

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73X8R9NrX3w

    Randers must be some kind of evil racist, suggesting that fewer people equates with better lives for everyone. What is he trying to say? He doens’t like people? of a certain color? He sure seems happy to report that there are fewer babies. There are some things you just can’t say, as Steve King has learned. I expect the Thought Police to be showing up at his home soon.

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  73. @Anonymous
    This guy Randers (in the video by Commenter four) is nuts. He treats the world like an undifferentiated mass of identical human breeding units, each with the same identical culture, each driven by the same motivations, each sharing the same beliefs, values.

    White Europeans have had sub- replacement fertility for decades now. Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits. Sure, they will slow down eventually, but by that time, Europeans will essentially be bred out of existence.

    Randers is living in a dream world. He showed that graph of declining global fertility. He wasn’t using Steve’s graph above. I am going with Steve’s graph. Randers needs to travel Africa for a few weeks and maybe get his eyes opened. Needs to “get out of the office”, as they say.

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  74. @Das
    70% of abortions in the US are to non-white women.

    I think it's likely that America would already be majority non-white if it wasn't for Roe v. Wade.

    If the pro-life movement ever succeeds, we'll have "white genocide" for real.

    Planned Parenthood achieved a major goal when, last year more black babies were aborted than born in NYC.

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  75. @Ed
    Aid organizations have stopped giving aid directly to fathers whenever possible for many years now. They realized that if they gave aid to the men the money wouldn't be used for the family. Instead the men would spend the money on drink and/or women.

    So if the money is pissed away, fewer children would live?

    What’s the downside?

    Read More
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  76. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Lagertha
    I so agree. Population must go down to save the world. I care more about animals (they are doomed in my lifetime) than people. We have contraceptives and, yeah, like a brain, so we should be smarter.

    On the other hand, these wretches have to be taught how to USE a contraceptive. There is a story that back in the 60s UNESCO reps were handing out condoms to the denizens of what was then East Pakistan who then proceeded to parade around with wooden poles. And what was on top of the poles? Yep…condoms.

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  77. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Whew!! Think the time has come to re-visit Malthus.

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  78. @Das
    70% of abortions in the US are to non-white women.

    I think it's likely that America would already be majority non-white if it wasn't for Roe v. Wade.

    If the pro-life movement ever succeeds, we'll have "white genocide" for real.

    The only abortion doctor in Mississippi is a homosexual black man who flies in from Chicago. In the US, black women are four to five times as likely to get an abortion as white women, yet black women are almost absent from the abortion debate. Black and white women have about the same number of children because about half of black pregnancies are aborted. Forty-five percent of women who get abortions have had a previous abortion. Women on Medicaid are three times as likely to get an abortion as women who are not.

    I am sure Bill Gates is aware that without abortions, births in Africa will remain high. Since 1960, the fertility rate in South Africa fallen from 6.17 to 2.41 children per women. South Africa offers abortion on demand.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ed
    Is South Africa the only country in Afruca to offer abortion on demand?
    , @Ivy
    Abortion as a primary means of birth control seems to indicate some fundamental system failure(s).

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy? If so, education is one component of a public health program to reduce societal bastardy costs.

    How about the cost of alternative policies and birth control methods? Condom distribution, check-ups, tests, diaphragms, and such would seem to be far cheaper in the long run than unchecked populations devolving. Pay now or pay more later, although that has an unpleasant forward-thinking vibe, doesn't it.

    Health effects, both physical and mental, on women having multiple abortions would seem to provide some type of self-regulating system via percentage rendered sterile or nuts.

    Thinking about all that makes me depressed.
    , @Unladen Swallow
    One in the entire state? Do they instead say use doctors in Louisiana instead?
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  79. Anony says:
    @Erik Sieven
    it is nearly impossible to deport into any African country right now in Europa. The only region to which European countries deport in significant numbers is the Balkan peninsula.

    “nearly impossible to deport into any African country” Saying categorical things like that doesn’t help with solutions. If there is one Islamic war that the US should assist a government in fighting it is Nigeria as peace in Nigeria makes it easier to deport.

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    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    it is a simple observation that anybody who gets to Europe almost never has to leave. I am not really interested in "solutions". The majority of Europeans obviously want to have it exactly that way so the situation doesn´t need to be solved.
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  80. Ivy says:
    @Lagertha
    They are already eating cat, dogs, rats and pigeons in Venezuela.

    Bugs and other creepy-crawlies are widely available in many SE Asian countries. Think of tucking in to a spread featuring scorpion skewers with cricket chasers and a dash of cockroaches as a palate cleanser. Of course, western palates are jaded, having been conditioned to such niceties as lack of famine. No word on how the rain of frogs may be impacted by global warming. In California, all the rain brought global worming.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    Global worming.

    Excellent. We've had more worms in our pool this year than in the last 7 years put together. Why on earth do they go in there? The filter gets jammed with their bodies and it's beyond gross.
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  81. Ivy says:
    @Earl Lemongrab
    In Rwanda population control is complicated by the "war of the cradle" between the Tutsi & Hutu, especially after a third of all Tutsi on the planet were hacked to death in 1994. My sense is that after a late '90s Tutsi baby boom, Rwanda has worked pretty hard to get its birthrates down in that tiny, overpopulated country. The last statistics show a drop from 6.2 children per mother in 1992 to 4.2 in 2014.

    Hutu, Tutsi. I never understood what legitimate grievances, if any, each side may have had that led to slaughter.

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  82. Ed says:
    @Triumph104
    The only abortion doctor in Mississippi is a homosexual black man who flies in from Chicago. In the US, black women are four to five times as likely to get an abortion as white women, yet black women are almost absent from the abortion debate. Black and white women have about the same number of children because about half of black pregnancies are aborted. Forty-five percent of women who get abortions have had a previous abortion. Women on Medicaid are three times as likely to get an abortion as women who are not.

    I am sure Bill Gates is aware that without abortions, births in Africa will remain high. Since 1960, the fertility rate in South Africa fallen from 6.17 to 2.41 children per women. South Africa offers abortion on demand.

    Is South Africa the only country in Afruca to offer abortion on demand?

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    • Replies: @Triumph104
    According to Wikipedia, South Africa, Tunisia, Cape Verde, and Mozambique allow abortions on demand, Mozambique since 2016.

    The fertility rate for most North African countries is fewer than three children per woman, so I would guess that doctors are using laws that permit abortions to save the life or health of the mother to perform elective abortions. Granted, North African women may actually be using birth control -- it does work when used properly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_law#cite_note-28
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  83. Ed says:
    @Lot
    They will probably survive in the less densely populated and better run parts of Southern Africa for at least another century. I'd rank African dystopias as follows:

    Southern Sahara region from Mali to Sudan
    Congo
    Somalia
    West Africa
    the rest of Central Africa
    East Africa
    Southern Africa
    South Africa and Madagascar

    The looming implosions of the Congo and Nigeria are going to be frightful.

    I looked at Liberia’s GDP per capita as determined by the World Bank, it’s never been above $500 since 1960.

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  84. Ivy says:
    @Triumph104
    The only abortion doctor in Mississippi is a homosexual black man who flies in from Chicago. In the US, black women are four to five times as likely to get an abortion as white women, yet black women are almost absent from the abortion debate. Black and white women have about the same number of children because about half of black pregnancies are aborted. Forty-five percent of women who get abortions have had a previous abortion. Women on Medicaid are three times as likely to get an abortion as women who are not.

    I am sure Bill Gates is aware that without abortions, births in Africa will remain high. Since 1960, the fertility rate in South Africa fallen from 6.17 to 2.41 children per women. South Africa offers abortion on demand.

    Abortion as a primary means of birth control seems to indicate some fundamental system failure(s).

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy? If so, education is one component of a public health program to reduce societal bastardy costs.

    How about the cost of alternative policies and birth control methods? Condom distribution, check-ups, tests, diaphragms, and such would seem to be far cheaper in the long run than unchecked populations devolving. Pay now or pay more later, although that has an unpleasant forward-thinking vibe, doesn’t it.

    Health effects, both physical and mental, on women having multiple abortions would seem to provide some type of self-regulating system via percentage rendered sterile or nuts.

    Thinking about all that makes me depressed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Clark Westwood

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy?
     
    My guess is that they're not unaware. It's that they are deficient in the areas of impulse-control, delaying gratification, and planning. All of those are correlated with intelligence.
    , @Thea
    As access to birth control increased, so did the number of unplanned pregnancies.

    Have you read "Sexual Utopia in Power" by Devlin? It's pretty good & a quick read.

    Widespread fornication seems to make people less responsible. They may have the education & knowledge but they lack self-restraint. Why do we need self-restraint when heronism rules the day?

    , @Triumph104
    Access to medical services or health education has nothing to do with American black women using abortions are birth control. In a multiracial society like the US, black women are the least desired and often end up with men below their level, if a man at all. Desperation leads to poor choices. Black women are also deeply religious and have magical thinking -- not planning to have sex may make them feel less loose or they may think a baby will change the guy or strengthen their relationship.

    Today's anecdote: Actress/comedian Sherri Shepherd was raised Jehovah's Witness and now identifies as Christian. Before she got married, she said that she had more abortions than she can remember. During her first marriage she was pregnant with twins. She miscarried one and the other is now developmentally delayed. Her husband got a white woman pregnant and divorced Sherri to marry the other woman. Sherri had to pay him spousal support.

    Sherri's friends encouraged her to marry an unemployed journalist. She couldn't get pregnant so they hired a surrogate. When the surrogate was three months pregnant, Sherri's second husband filed for divorce. She now pays her ex-husband child support and has never met the child born by surrogacy.
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  85. @Ivy
    Abortion as a primary means of birth control seems to indicate some fundamental system failure(s).

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy? If so, education is one component of a public health program to reduce societal bastardy costs.

    How about the cost of alternative policies and birth control methods? Condom distribution, check-ups, tests, diaphragms, and such would seem to be far cheaper in the long run than unchecked populations devolving. Pay now or pay more later, although that has an unpleasant forward-thinking vibe, doesn't it.

    Health effects, both physical and mental, on women having multiple abortions would seem to provide some type of self-regulating system via percentage rendered sterile or nuts.

    Thinking about all that makes me depressed.

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy?

    My guess is that they’re not unaware. It’s that they are deficient in the areas of impulse-control, delaying gratification, and planning. All of those are correlated with intelligence.

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  86. @Anony
    "nearly impossible to deport into any African country" Saying categorical things like that doesn't help with solutions. If there is one Islamic war that the US should assist a government in fighting it is Nigeria as peace in Nigeria makes it easier to deport.

    it is a simple observation that anybody who gets to Europe almost never has to leave. I am not really interested in “solutions”. The majority of Europeans obviously want to have it exactly that way so the situation doesn´t need to be solved.

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  87. Sean says:

    They can export it though.

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  88. Thea says:
    @Ivy
    Abortion as a primary means of birth control seems to indicate some fundamental system failure(s).

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy? If so, education is one component of a public health program to reduce societal bastardy costs.

    How about the cost of alternative policies and birth control methods? Condom distribution, check-ups, tests, diaphragms, and such would seem to be far cheaper in the long run than unchecked populations devolving. Pay now or pay more later, although that has an unpleasant forward-thinking vibe, doesn't it.

    Health effects, both physical and mental, on women having multiple abortions would seem to provide some type of self-regulating system via percentage rendered sterile or nuts.

    Thinking about all that makes me depressed.

    As access to birth control increased, so did the number of unplanned pregnancies.

    Have you read “Sexual Utopia in Power” by Devlin? It’s pretty good & a quick read.

    Widespread fornication seems to make people less responsible. They may have the education & knowledge but they lack self-restraint. Why do we need self-restraint when heronism rules the day?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    thanks for the book ref, will check it out
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  89. The so-called “demographic transition” boils down to this:

    A bidding war for young women between the economy and the family in which the economy wins thereby selecting out of the next generation the very things demanded by the economy.

    None of The Great and The Good can face this fact — particularly not in Africa where many of them are attempting to make It happen and, consequently, have the same devastatingly dysgenic and culturally corrosive consequences it has had in the developed world in the last 2 generations. As though Africa needs _that_.

    Indeed, I don’t see the HBD community facing up to the exigencies of this bidding war and the consequences if no appropriate action is taken. One consequence: Radical Islam Wins.

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  90. @Ivy
    Bugs and other creepy-crawlies are widely available in many SE Asian countries. Think of tucking in to a spread featuring scorpion skewers with cricket chasers and a dash of cockroaches as a palate cleanser. Of course, western palates are jaded, having been conditioned to such niceties as lack of famine. No word on how the rain of frogs may be impacted by global warming. In California, all the rain brought global worming.

    Global worming.

    Excellent. We’ve had more worms in our pool this year than in the last 7 years put together. Why on earth do they go in there? The filter gets jammed with their bodies and it’s beyond gross.

    Read More
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  91. rw95 says:
    @Anonymous
    This guy Randers (in the video by Commenter four) is nuts. He treats the world like an undifferentiated mass of identical human breeding units, each with the same identical culture, each driven by the same motivations, each sharing the same beliefs, values.

    White Europeans have had sub- replacement fertility for decades now. Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits. Sure, they will slow down eventually, but by that time, Europeans will essentially be bred out of existence.

    India’s birth rate has been declining for some time now. They’re still above replacement rate, but they’re steadily slowing down.

    How many white children have you had?

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  92. Art Deco says:
    @Anonymous
    This guy Randers (in the video by Commenter four) is nuts. He treats the world like an undifferentiated mass of identical human breeding units, each with the same identical culture, each driven by the same motivations, each sharing the same beliefs, values.

    White Europeans have had sub- replacement fertility for decades now. Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits. Sure, they will slow down eventually, but by that time, Europeans will essentially be bred out of existence.

    Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits.

    India’s tfr is 2.5 children per woman per lifetime and declining, so, no. Africa’s fertility rate is declining, just not rapidly enough to please the IMF.

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    • Replies: @Anony
    The North has a TFR of 3+. The South is at 2 or even lower.

    People in the South are much smarter than in the North.
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  93. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    There’s over 10,000 Africans and Haitians piling up in Tijuana right now, trying to get over the border to the US. Most are from qualified shitholes such as Nigeria, the Congo, Somalia, and Nigeria. As Africa’s population booms, unqualified opportunist refugees from Africa will multiply, and become a real problem for Mexico, and consequently, for us in the near future.

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  94. @Steve Sailer
    That's how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.

    That’s how everybody assumed it would work in SSA based on the experiences of other countries, but so far it has happened much more slowly than the experts expected.

    Experts?

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  95. @Clark Westwood
    In A Troublesome Inheritance, Wade theorizes that a low birth rate is one of the things that have held SSA back, and that population growth will hasten urbanization and industrialization there. I found his argument something of a head-scratcher.

    “More population = more wealth” has been the mantra of Liberalism (in the classic economic sense) for a long time. Lincoln and his backers considered it an axiom, for example, and I, at least, haven’t seen a formal case made by them or anyone else as to why.

    The mantra only ever made sense in very limited ways (e.g., more customers — externalities be damned!; or: larger tax base — they will cough up the money somehow!; or: more money in the collection plate, so we can build a bigger church and get even more money in the collection plate “if you’ve got an ass, we’ve got a pew”).

    But doesn’t the mantra’s accuracy depend on the quality of the population that is expanded? A booming population of welfare cases would not tend to lead to more wealth.

    We’ll make it up on volume, I guess.

    Malthus laughs in his grave.

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  96. @Ed
    Is South Africa the only country in Afruca to offer abortion on demand?

    According to Wikipedia, South Africa, Tunisia, Cape Verde, and Mozambique allow abortions on demand, Mozambique since 2016.

    The fertility rate for most North African countries is fewer than three children per woman, so I would guess that doctors are using laws that permit abortions to save the life or health of the mother to perform elective abortions. Granted, North African women may actually be using birth control — it does work when used properly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_law#cite_note-28

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  97. Ivy says:
    @Thea
    As access to birth control increased, so did the number of unplanned pregnancies.

    Have you read "Sexual Utopia in Power" by Devlin? It's pretty good & a quick read.

    Widespread fornication seems to make people less responsible. They may have the education & knowledge but they lack self-restraint. Why do we need self-restraint when heronism rules the day?

    thanks for the book ref, will check it out

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  98. @Ivy
    Abortion as a primary means of birth control seems to indicate some fundamental system failure(s).

    Are the women, and their partners, if known, really that unaware of what causes pregnancy? If so, education is one component of a public health program to reduce societal bastardy costs.

    How about the cost of alternative policies and birth control methods? Condom distribution, check-ups, tests, diaphragms, and such would seem to be far cheaper in the long run than unchecked populations devolving. Pay now or pay more later, although that has an unpleasant forward-thinking vibe, doesn't it.

    Health effects, both physical and mental, on women having multiple abortions would seem to provide some type of self-regulating system via percentage rendered sterile or nuts.

    Thinking about all that makes me depressed.

    Access to medical services or health education has nothing to do with American black women using abortions are birth control. In a multiracial society like the US, black women are the least desired and often end up with men below their level, if a man at all. Desperation leads to poor choices. Black women are also deeply religious and have magical thinking — not planning to have sex may make them feel less loose or they may think a baby will change the guy or strengthen their relationship.

    Today’s anecdote: Actress/comedian Sherri Shepherd was raised Jehovah’s Witness and now identifies as Christian. Before she got married, she said that she had more abortions than she can remember. During her first marriage she was pregnant with twins. She miscarried one and the other is now developmentally delayed. Her husband got a white woman pregnant and divorced Sherri to marry the other woman. Sherri had to pay him spousal support.

    Sherri’s friends encouraged her to marry an unemployed journalist. She couldn’t get pregnant so they hired a surrogate. When the surrogate was three months pregnant, Sherri’s second husband filed for divorce. She now pays her ex-husband child support and has never met the child born by surrogacy.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    I am sad for the children as that is a bad environment in so many ways.
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  99. What was again all that talk about overpopulation and stuff ?

    http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2017/04/13/teenager-accidentally-shoots-himself-on-instagram-live/

    Yo’ Mamma Nature is one Mean Ol’ Bit*h that ain’t take prisoners…

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  100. Next we will owe them each a place to live, in Europe or North America of course, because expecting them to run their own affairs and deal with the consequences would be racist. Or something…

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  101. @Anonymous
    There was a time when a population problem like this would solve itself -- through sheer poverty and starvation.

    We won't allow that to happen in this day and age... but this creates problems of it's own.

    I'm actually more worried about what this means for Europe. There will be plenty of Africans to go around in the future - and of course, many of these people will find their way to Europe.

    As individuals many Africans will be in dire situations - but as a civilization, it's Europeans who are really in danger.

    If the people of Europe can't find the collective will to say 'NO' to desperately needy Africans, it really will be game over for them.

    It's something that we're beginning to see already. The issue is going to ramp up quickly, and I am not optimistic about the future based on what I've observed so far.

    If the people of Europe can’t find the collective will to say ‘NO’ to desperately needy Africans, it really will be game over for them.

    It’s not the “people” of Europe who welcome the invaders; it’s the rulers (Angela Merkel, for example).

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  102. @Triumph104
    The only abortion doctor in Mississippi is a homosexual black man who flies in from Chicago. In the US, black women are four to five times as likely to get an abortion as white women, yet black women are almost absent from the abortion debate. Black and white women have about the same number of children because about half of black pregnancies are aborted. Forty-five percent of women who get abortions have had a previous abortion. Women on Medicaid are three times as likely to get an abortion as women who are not.

    I am sure Bill Gates is aware that without abortions, births in Africa will remain high. Since 1960, the fertility rate in South Africa fallen from 6.17 to 2.41 children per women. South Africa offers abortion on demand.

    One in the entire state? Do they instead say use doctors in Louisiana instead?

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    • Replies: @Triumph104
    I don't know. I have always heard that he was the only abortion doctor in Mississippi period, but the guy, Dr. Willie Parker, did an interview with Esquire in 2014 and said he was one of two who traveled to Mississippi to provide abortions - I assume at the same clinic. That same article also said that there were only six abortion clinics in Texas. As of today, Louisiana only has three abortion clinics - Shreveport, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

    Dr. Willie Parker just released a book. Being a traveling abortion doctor is very lucrative. He now lives in a Honolulu penthouse and does abortions in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.
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  103. MBlanc46 says:
    @unit472
    Even if the investment was available Sub Saharan societies lack the social organizaton of SE Asia. Vietnam may be poor but they have an organized society. They fought the United States for a decade building the infrastructure needed to keep a large army in the field hundreds of miles from their ports. Operated modern jets and SAM systems and rebuilt their bridges and roads as fast as we could knock them down.

    Compare that to Africa. There the infrastructure falls apart from neglect and theft not bombing raids. India manages to keep locomotives operating that would be in Western museums and if most of the people are desperately poor they have a world class scientific and commercial elite. Africa only manages to stay above the primordial ooze through foreign aid and selling its natural resources to foreigners.

    Average IQ in the 70s along wirh diminished future-time orientation and impulse control.

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  104. @Anonymous
    Not sure it's racist to say Africa needs to get its population under control though race might be the factor that is preventing them from doing so. Low average IQ means global corporations are not interested in investing there (just as in Haiti) and without industrialization, which Africans have shown no capacity to achieve on their own, the demographic transition may not take place. Short time horizons might also be a factor. I wonder if a cheap, over-the-counter abortion pill might help solve the problem?

    You’re making the mistake of assuming that those Africans with many children didn’t want those children. Having a large family is still social and cultural capital in SSA.

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    • Agree: ben tillman
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  105. @BB753
    "It’s not uncommon for my shirts these days to come from sub-Saharan Africa"

    Steve, this is depressing! Tomorrow I'll send some money your way so you can at least afford shirts made in Bangladesh!

    I’m sure we hit this subject in the comments a few months ago, but those shirts from sub-Saharan Africa are made in sweatshops run and staffed by expatriate Chinese in order to dodge US and EU import tariffs. I suppose someone with dark skin gets a kickback somewhere along the way, but the reality is that most of that economic activity is happening in what amounts to a de facto Chinese economic zone that just happens to have an African postal address.

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    • Replies: @Anony
    10 Chinese owners / managers / technicians and 300 African ladies with steady paychecks who value their time too much to have too many babies. Sounds like a good deal to me. It's not dodging tariffs, it's what they are designed to do. The more Chinese mill owners that go to Africa the better.
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  106. Of all the problems facing the future of the planet, Sub-Saharan African population growth is probably has the highest ratio of Size of Problem relative to Times Mentioned. The UN’s 2015 population projections estimated that SSA would grow from a half billion people in 1990 to 4 billion in 2100. (Compare the Times Mentioned to, say, Climate Change.)

    I’ve seen it mentioned a few times at NYT. I note that reader comments were not positive (ie, they seemed to think it IS a real problem).

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The NYT is starting to get worried about it, but they are treating it with trepidation.

    Almost nobody is yet using the word "crisis" to describe African population growth.

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  107. @Regor
    The only way the UN, the EU and other international organizations are going to deal with the problem, once they finally realize its gravity, is by promoting late stage feminism. That's all they will be capable of coming up with as a solution as nobody will call them racist for doing that.

    As much as that has "worked" for the Western world and beyond, I doubt African women will be as willing to diss their men as ours were to us.

    So even such destructive policy will take very long to work.

    SJW feminists already ignore grossly misogynist Muslim countries. Ignoring over populated SSA countries will not be a problem.

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  108. @Frau Katze

    Of all the problems facing the future of the planet, Sub-Saharan African population growth is probably has the highest ratio of Size of Problem relative to Times Mentioned. The UN’s 2015 population projections estimated that SSA would grow from a half billion people in 1990 to 4 billion in 2100. (Compare the Times Mentioned to, say, Climate Change.)
     
    I've seen it mentioned a few times at NYT. I note that reader comments were not positive (ie, they seemed to think it IS a real problem).

    The NYT is starting to get worried about it, but they are treating it with trepidation.

    Almost nobody is yet using the word “crisis” to describe African population growth.

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    • Replies: @AnotherGuessModel
    but they are treating it with trepidation.

    That's only because they haven't figured out how to blame the crisis on white racism and colonialism yet. I suspect they're going to heavily frame the issue around Trump's withdrawal of funding for overseas organizations that perform abortions, and go from there.
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  109. Ivy says:
    @Triumph104
    Access to medical services or health education has nothing to do with American black women using abortions are birth control. In a multiracial society like the US, black women are the least desired and often end up with men below their level, if a man at all. Desperation leads to poor choices. Black women are also deeply religious and have magical thinking -- not planning to have sex may make them feel less loose or they may think a baby will change the guy or strengthen their relationship.

    Today's anecdote: Actress/comedian Sherri Shepherd was raised Jehovah's Witness and now identifies as Christian. Before she got married, she said that she had more abortions than she can remember. During her first marriage she was pregnant with twins. She miscarried one and the other is now developmentally delayed. Her husband got a white woman pregnant and divorced Sherri to marry the other woman. Sherri had to pay him spousal support.

    Sherri's friends encouraged her to marry an unemployed journalist. She couldn't get pregnant so they hired a surrogate. When the surrogate was three months pregnant, Sherri's second husband filed for divorce. She now pays her ex-husband child support and has never met the child born by surrogacy.

    I am sad for the children as that is a bad environment in so many ways.

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  110. @Steve Sailer
    The NYT is starting to get worried about it, but they are treating it with trepidation.

    Almost nobody is yet using the word "crisis" to describe African population growth.

    but they are treating it with trepidation.

    That’s only because they haven’t figured out how to blame the crisis on white racism and colonialism yet. I suspect they’re going to heavily frame the issue around Trump’s withdrawal of funding for overseas organizations that perform abortions, and go from there.

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    • Replies: @Das
    Um, why exactly did Trump cut off funding to overseas organizations that perform abortions?

    When you have a hole, it's a good idea to stop digging.
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  111. @Unladen Swallow
    One in the entire state? Do they instead say use doctors in Louisiana instead?

    I don’t know. I have always heard that he was the only abortion doctor in Mississippi period, but the guy, Dr. Willie Parker, did an interview with Esquire in 2014 and said he was one of two who traveled to Mississippi to provide abortions – I assume at the same clinic. That same article also said that there were only six abortion clinics in Texas. As of today, Louisiana only has three abortion clinics – Shreveport, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

    Dr. Willie Parker just released a book. Being a traveling abortion doctor is very lucrative. He now lives in a Honolulu penthouse and does abortions in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.

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  112. MEH 0910 says:
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  113. Free trade isn’t very good for Africa either. Their inefficient industries are easily crushed in open competition with Asia, and the lure of free trade with the West and Asia encourages them to focus on foodstuffs and raw materials. Africa has a million consumers, it doesn’t need to focus so much on exports.

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  114. Anony says:
    @Art Deco
    Africans and Indians are still breeding like bunny rabbits.

    India's tfr is 2.5 children per woman per lifetime and declining, so, no. Africa's fertility rate is declining, just not rapidly enough to please the IMF.

    The North has a TFR of 3+. The South is at 2 or even lower.

    People in the South are much smarter than in the North.

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  115. Anony says:

    Two mega Indian states Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (300 mil people) have TFR of 3.4 and 3.7 (2012). This is not viewed as a serious problem in India. Some of course see it as a problem but mainly the political class believes so many future working age people is a demographic strength.

    In Bangladesh however overpopulation is regarded as the most serious crisis.

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  116. Anony says:
    @Almost Missouri
    I'm sure we hit this subject in the comments a few months ago, but those shirts from sub-Saharan Africa are made in sweatshops run and staffed by expatriate Chinese in order to dodge US and EU import tariffs. I suppose someone with dark skin gets a kickback somewhere along the way, but the reality is that most of that economic activity is happening in what amounts to a de facto Chinese economic zone that just happens to have an African postal address.

    10 Chinese owners / managers / technicians and 300 African ladies with steady paychecks who value their time too much to have too many babies. Sounds like a good deal to me. It’s not dodging tariffs, it’s what they are designed to do. The more Chinese mill owners that go to Africa the better.

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    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    I hope you're right.
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  117. Das says:
    @AnotherGuessModel
    but they are treating it with trepidation.

    That's only because they haven't figured out how to blame the crisis on white racism and colonialism yet. I suspect they're going to heavily frame the issue around Trump's withdrawal of funding for overseas organizations that perform abortions, and go from there.

    Um, why exactly did Trump cut off funding to overseas organizations that perform abortions?

    When you have a hole, it’s a good idea to stop digging.

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  118. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    OT but not entirely:
    Michigan Doctor Is Accused of Genital Cutting of 2 Girls

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/us/michigan-doctor-fgm-cutting.html

    The doctor, Jumana Nagarwala, 44, was arrested on Wednesday on charges that she performed the genital cutting at an unnamed medical clinic in Livonia, Mich.; transported minors with intent to engage in criminal sexual activity; and lied to federal agents.

    Not a single instance of “Islam” or “Muslim” in article. (No, I am not suggesting that all or even most Muslims practice this but clearly, at least some do and is it not obvious that the reported incident was done as a Muslim practice?)

    Also, “sexual activity”? Where is the evidence that this practice known as female genital mutilation (FGM) or “female circumcision” is sexual Just because it involves the sex organs? By that logic, (even) any (legitimate) medical procedure that involved the genitalia would be sexual. (Which, in turn, would mean that every gynecologist and urologist was a sick, degenerate voyeur…)

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  119. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    [To replace previous comment]

    OT but not entirely:
    Michigan Doctor Is Accused of Genital Cutting of 2 Girls

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/us/michigan-doctor-fgm-cutting.html

    The doctor, Jumana Nagarwala, 44, was arrested on Wednesday on charges that she performed the genital cutting at an unnamed medical clinic in Livonia, Mich.; transported minors with intent to engage in criminal sexual activity; and lied to federal agents.

    Note: 0 instances of the words “Islam” or “Muslim” in article. (No, I am not suggesting that all or even most Muslims practice this but clearly, at least some do and is it not obvious that the reported incident was done as a Muslim practice?)

    Also, “sexual activity”? Where is the evidence that this practice known as female genital mutilation (FGM) or “female circumcision” is sexual? Just because it involves the sex organs? By that logic, (even) any (legitimate) medical procedure that involved the genitalia would be sexual. (Which, in turn, would mean that every gynecologist and urologist was a sick, degenerate voyeur…)

    Imagine a comparable or even more scandalous story but with one key difference: The individuals and/or group behind the barbaric practice involved, instead of identifying/being affiliated with (at least some strain of at least purported) Islam instead claimed to be Christian. Would the NYT entirely omit that fact from their reporting on the incident?

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  120. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Detroit physician charged with mutilating girls’ genitalia

    Female genital mutilation is an internationally recognized violation of human rights and is popular among certain religious and cultural communities, according to the FBI.

    Hmm, I wonder which “religious and cultural communities” those would be… Coptic Christian, perhaps? Maybe Hindu? Irish Catholic? British Anglican? Confucian Chinese? Tibetan Buddhist? Armenian Christian? Eastern Orthodox Christian? Episcopalian? Southern Baptist? Wiccan?

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  121. @Anony
    10 Chinese owners / managers / technicians and 300 African ladies with steady paychecks who value their time too much to have too many babies. Sounds like a good deal to me. It's not dodging tariffs, it's what they are designed to do. The more Chinese mill owners that go to Africa the better.

    I hope you’re right.

    Read More
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