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If South Korea Absorbs the Norks, 1989-Style, Will Seoul Keep Their Nukes?
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Koreans have always struck me as among the most nationalistic people on earth, so it’s always struck me as plausible that someday the peninsula will be one nation-state. Unfortunately, I don’t have any brilliant suggestions for how to get there.

One possibility is that the successful South Korean state will, in the fullness of time, absorb North Korea into simply Korea, much as West Germany absorbed East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall and became Germany.

Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?

If they kept them, would Japan nuke up? What else would happen?

 
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  1. If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

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    • Replies: @snorlax

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.
     
    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions
     
    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.
    , @Twinkie

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out
     
    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.
    , @Jon

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans
     
    When Hines Ward's (the half black, half Korean all-pro wide receiver) career went south, many Koreans noted the fact that he can't be blamed for the fact that he is only half Korean.
    , @White Guy In Japan
    #3: South Korea has claimed to have invented Chinese writing and soccer, among other things.

    Chinese govt got upset, Japan ignored it.
    , @Moses
    You haven't been to Korea, have you?
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  2. Hard to see them throwing away knockout-punch value without getting something special in return.

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  3. Reunification hasn’t happened since the 1950s. Why would it suddenly happen now? The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

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    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

    No, it's weaker than ever. Kim is still young and unproven. Economic reforms have created an actual class of business owners - for the first time in North Korean history there are some alternative power centers to the Party and the Military. More importantly, the information wall has been cracking for some time. Tens of thousands, if not already hundreds of thousands, of North Koreans have travelled to or worked in China, and know very well how far behind the rest of the world the DPRK is falling. There is a thriving black market in South Korean and Chinese media, which also undercut the regime's message. One reason why Kim is so desperate to have a working ICBM is to gain credibility and legitimacy.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.
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  4. After the lesson of the Ukraine in the 1990s and their subsequent relations with Russia, a unified Korea would be very mistaken to give up their nukes.

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    • Agree: rogue-one
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  5. Koreans have always struck me as among the most nationalistic people on earth, so it’s always struck me as plausible that someday the peninsula will be one nation-state.

    Not clear at all imo. Germany was only divided for 45 years, and there still was quite a lot of contact between the two halves. But by the end of the 1980s few people still believed in reunification (and many on the West German left have never really accepted it), and the 1945-1990 period has left a lasting legacy. The East-West divide is still very real (not least in attitudes towards “diversity” and immigration) and will persist imo.
    The situation in Korea must be much more extreme…the two halves have now been separated for 70 years, only very old people can still remember a united Korea, and they’ll soon be gone. NK has been hermetically sealed off from the south, there’s been almost no contact even between relatives. There’s the legacy of a bitter war, and of recurrent deadly violence right up to the present. South Korea has been subject to Americanization and even some Christianization…whereas the North Koreans know nothing but an extreme ruler cult and ultra-nationalism.
    So in all probability there really are now two Korean nations. It they ever will be reunified, it will be a traumatic experience and it will take generations for some all-Korean national unity to be reestablished. I’d suppose under those conditions they wouldn’t be interested in keeping nukes…all their energies will be absorbed in dealing with intra-Korean issues.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    I am far from an expert on Germany, and I certainly acknowledge the significance of the Cold War and German division, but I have a hunch that a significant number of the East-West differences in Germany can be chalked up to old regional differences that greatly predate the Cold War. Is this true?
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  6. If I were leader of Korea, unified or not, I’d want nukes. Kim Jong Un is acting rationally in that sense.

    Germany to me seems like a very bad example to follow, in light of current events. I’d go for a different model. Maybe, freedom of movement for ethnic Koreans, but a duel government and rock bottom taxes in the North. Pro-family policies. Low level of regulations.

    Longer term, 2050 or 2100. I see Korea and Japan having much closer ties, despite some long and hard memories.

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    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Germany to me seems like a very bad example to follow, in light of current events.
     
    I don't see reunification as having to do much with "current events", unless you're talking the historical fluke of having a part-Polish, childless old bitty with the commie preacher father as leader of the conservative party and Chancellor of Germany?

    Italy, France, Britain, Sweden ... did not undergo reunification and suffer from "current events". This anti-national, anti-white disease is endemic in the West, the outgrowth of "lessons of the War", holocaustia and colonialism propagandizing. And the Germans are propagandized worst of all, with their kinder bottle fed war guilt before they are weaned.

    My speculations about a reunified Korea would be pretty uninformed, but it's hard to conceive of a scenario where it actually increases the chance of them waving in lots of SE Asian Muslims or worse Africans.
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  7. I don’t really exactly know the facts here, but I’m under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the “democratic, multiracial” SA government gave this up. That’s hopeful, in a way, if true.

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    • Replies: @Pericles
    F.W. De Klerk wrote that he decided to dismantle the South African nuclear arsenal in 1989, before the end of Apartheid. The process was finished in 1991.

    The core of the regional and national threats that confronted us before 1989 did not lie in military weakness but in escalating tensions between black and white South Africans arising from apartheid. The solution was not the acquisition of greater military power through the development of nuclear weapons but the abolition of apartheid and the negotiation of a new non-racial constitution.

     

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-deklerk-south-africa-nukes-20131222-story.html

    (Was his solution right though?)
    , @NickG

    I don’t really exactly know the facts here, but I’m under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the “democratic, multiracial” SA government gave this up. That’s hopeful, in a way, if true.
     
    The National party government in South Africa - that is the government up to April 1994 - most definitely did have nuclear weapons. The last white state president - FW De Klerk - de-commissioned these and disbanded the South African unit responsible, based at Pelindaba just west of Pretoria - before the April 1994 all race elections that resulted in the formation of the ANC government under Nelson Mandela.

    The South African nuclear weapons program operated in close cahoots with the Israelis, as they did on other defence matters from fighter aircraft, through tanks to assault rifles.

    , @The Anti-Gnostic
    They had 9 warheads I believe. They dismantled them before ceding power to the country's democratic majority.
    , @Fran800
    White South African government definitely had nukes. They (the white government, not the black) gave up the Nukes before handing over power to the Black government. Read the book and articles by Ilana Mercer if you find anything hopeful about the Black-run South Africa.
    , @Mr. Anon
    As other commenters have pointed out, SA's nuclear weapons were given up by the last white government. In other words, they dismantled their nuclear arsenal so that it wouldn't fall into the hands of a black-run government.
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  8. >Unfortunately, I don’t have any brilliant suggestions for how to get there.

    Point to Vietnam as an example to Kim Jong Un that he can have his cake and eat it too, if on a more slow pace to accommodate the nature of Kim’s regime: a modernizing economy while he retains control it, and that we’d rather have him in power than his generals, who probably believe North Korea’s radical, 1930s-Japanese inspired racial ultra-nationalism more literally than he does. KJU probably does, too, but to a lesser, more realistic extent, so we’re choosing a less bad evil-and a more stable one, in which we know who controls what.

    Won’t resulted in a united Korea, but will result in an overall positive result for the biggest amount of people. Also, this is something that Beijing would probably be quite enthusiastic about, not just because that’s what they want to try, but because it might signify that President Trump, after a year of confusion, is decisively ditching the “democracy promotion” angle of his three predecessors.

    >One possibility is that the successful South Korean state will, in the fullness of time, absorb North Korea into simply Korea, much as West Germany absorbed East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall and became Germany.

    While ethnic Korean nationalism is a very potent force, not to be underestimated-to the extent that you could call the conflict on the peninsula as a battle really more between extreme ethno-nationalists and moderate ethno-nationalists than Commies and democrats-younger generations have seen the extreme financial costs incurred by West Germany after 1989. And the two Koreas are way, way, *way* more divergent than the two Germanys. They are probably nowhere near as privately enthusiatic about reunification as they will publicly state.

    Korea is not Germany. You could have limited contact with relatives if they ended up in East Germany and you were in the West. Not so with Korea. The Wall was an absolute joke compared to the DMZ. East Germany was the most advanced place in the Soviet bloc, their economy getting sucked dry by people fleeing and reparations to the Russians, aside. North Korea…

    >Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?

    Who is to say South Korea wouldn’t develop nukes of their own if the US left?

    >If they kept them, would Japan nuke up?

    Probably, especially if President Trump decides to start filtering out our bases there. Japan has what is called “nuclear latency”-meaning they can quickly assemble nukes if they want. But the Chinese are aware of that, which is probably why they wouldn’t want a nuclear armed unified Korea, even if it ultimately leans pro-Beijing due to anti-Tokyo animus and the US becoming redundant.

    The Chinese have a “Pakistan style” relationship with them rather than a straightforward client/protector relationship with them, not least thanks to the nukes, meaning that them simply hanging them out to dry isn’t as easy as it sounds. They can punish them by temporarily shutting down money laundering in Macau (one of the few ways North Korea gets hard cash) much like we temporarily cut military funding when the Paks prosecuted the guy who betrayed Bin Laden, but that only goes so far. That said, for China to agree to let Pyongyang out to dry to the maximum extent, though, three things have to happen:

    1) The “who gets the nukes question” is solved, preferably without setting off a scenario where Japan inevitably sees the need to get a nuke.

    2) China does not get flooded by millions of PTSD addled refugees-and unlike American leaders, Xi is under no illusions about the sanity, or lack thereof, of open borders with a drug manufacturing basket-case.

    3) US troops don’t end up bordering China. Don’t think this one needs much explaining.

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    • Replies: @Sagamore Sam
    Fox is correct. This is the likely scenario, IMO.

    A secret agreement between China, the US and Japan for the end state: All nuclear weapons and ICBM delivery systems will be removed from Korea, US troops will leave, and Seoul will run the country.

    Phase I - China's agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Phase II - NK puppet leader negotiates for 6 months with SK government, and reunification follows shortly thereafter.

    Existential ICBM threats to US and Japan will cease, US taxpayer will no longer pay for forward deployed forces, and the world will have one less hotspot.

    Trump wins, China wins, Korea wins, Japan wins. Other than the Boy Leader, who loses?
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  9. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Sorta OT but if the post is about SK it is probably Olympic influenced….

    No doubt some don’t watch the Olympics and don’t watch figure skating, but I find it worth noting that the SK ice dancing male (at least in the team competition) is a white American. And the Japan ice dancing male is a half-white American.

    I’m an anti-globalist, but to each their own.

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    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Since I'm currently in Asia, I got to see the Switzerland-vs-Korea women's hockey game live on TV. The Swiss really dominated as the 8-0 shut-out suggests. The Swiss women were truly a joy to behold: fast and agile skaters, great stick handling, well-developed and executed plays, and aggressive. To boot, they were pretty and appeared to be wearing makeup too. I have no idea what expectations were for the Korean team, but they never stood a chance in that match-up.
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  10. of course. Why is this even a question?

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  11. @anony-mouse
    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as 'proof' that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.

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    • Replies: @PiltdownMan

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.
     
    That's a very usable template of a sentence applicable to many a nation's populace.

    For example,

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to American conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that Russia (and North Koreans/Iran) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Saudis (and Israelis) are their friends.

    , @Alfa158
    From business visits to Korea, I get the same impressions. Indeed among younger South Koreans 1/ sometimes goes to the extreme of a desire to reunify the two Koreas under Pyongyang.
    , @ic1000
    I'm no expert on Korea, but most commentary strikes me as naive and uninformed. South Koreans have their interests, the North's regime has theirs, and it doesn't seem that very many US opinionators make much effort to understand either, in any depth.

    There's a good interview with Western professor P.R. Myers of Dongseo University at -- of all places! -- Slate.com. Isaac Chotiner, Sympathy for North Korea: Why South Koreans might just be willing to align with Kim Jong-un. The obligatory Trump-hatred is surprisingly muted.

    The North is arming to compel the peaceful withdrawal of U.S. troops from the peninsula, in the belief that the South could then be cajoled or intimidated into submission. The current South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has repeatedly made clear that he opposes the use of military force against North Korea no matter what happens. He and his camp support the idea of a North-South confederation. Pyongyang has always seen confederation as a brief transition to a takeover of the South, while Seoul sees it as a symbolic union that will enable it to postpone real unification indefinitely. America is thus in the absurd and very dangerous position of a bodyguard trying to protect someone who is promising a stalker a sort of pro forma marriage.
     
    , @BenKenobi

    seriously, go visit reddit
     
    No.
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  12. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    As a decades-long U.S. expat in Japan, I can tell you that resistance to anything nuclear is very high here. I’m actually surprised that bananas are legal. Given the problems just getting the power plants online again, I can’t imagine a nuclear weapons program. Personally, I would support it, as a way to keep China less aggressive.

    Japanese have a warped view of how they are seen in the U.S., which makes them think that “daddy” will always take care of them. Generally, Americans are friendly to them, but there is plenty of bigotry just below the surface. A lot of Americans think of Japanese as genetically warlike and reformed Nazis. Somehow they can’t distinguish between American colonial activity and Japanese colonial activity, and they don’t register that the U.S. destroyed civilian cities with firebombing and nuclear bombs, not to mention the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans).

    The Japanese Diet has no far-right parties, but there is a non-trivial communist party and a couple of socialist parties. Civil servants below the upper management level tend to lean socialist/communist. There is a religion of pacifism, especially among women.

    As far as Korea goes, Japanese have a much more realistic view of things than Americans. The crazy stories about North Korea that are so popular in the U.S. media don’t get much play here. Korea, North and South, are constantly in the news here, and there is lot of on-the-ground reporting and many informed commentators, including Japanse-speaking Koreans. They know that North Korea is an authoritarian dictatorship, but they also know that they are rational actors.

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    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    I take exception to your comments on Americans. I would say that most Americans simply don't think about overseas commitments in general, nevermind our relationship with Japan. To the extent that Americans have any impressions of the Japanese, they don't really think of them as warlike. That characterizes people who are in their 60s or 70s and older, but young people are as likely to associate Japan with crazy YouTube videos. Also, there were lots of prisoners in WWII. When the war ended, there was a demobilization of Japanese across Asia, and the US oversaw their processing and repatriation. They weren't slaughtered or brutalized. Your implications about the US character are undeserved.

    Also, Japanese communists are not like the CPUSA was, and people I know here are uneasy with the North Korean situation.

    Overall, my sense is that, while reliance on American protection and opposition to nuclear weapons is widespread, it is also quite shallow, based as it is--as so many things are here--on unreflective consensus.
    , @Graham
    "the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans)"

    I've been reading two memoirs of the war against the Japanese by British writers who fought in Burma: Quartered Safe Out Here by George Macdonald Fraser, author of the Flashman novels (the title is ironic: he wasn't safe); and The Road Beyond Mandalay by John Masters, author of many novels about British India and other subjects, whom I wholeheartedly recommend. Both these men note the lack of (unwounded) prisoners and state the simple reason for it, which was the Japanese habit of fighting to the death. Masters says that in his opinion most Japanese soldiers, had they been British or American, would have been eligible for the Victoria Cross or Congressional Medal of Honor.
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  13. Koreans are unfortunate to be stuck in one of the most strategic points on the globe. Since the 19th century there have been several major wars fought over the Korean Peninsula:
    - Sino Japanese war in the 1870s
    - Russo Japanese war in the 1900s
    - Korean War in the 1950s

    Unless there are major changes in geopolitics, the safest thing for the world is a divided Korean Peninsula, as sad as that is for the people of Korea, especially North Korea. The are two possible futures for a united Korea (I assume that Korea is not united by North Korea taking over the south).

    1. A Korean Peninsula allied with the US. This would mean US troops on the Chinese border. With or without nukes in Korea this would be a disaster waiting to happen. One border incident and the world’s two superpowers would be at war.

    2. A “neutral” Korean Peninsula. In reality this would quickly result in a Korean Peninsula under Chinese suzerainty, as has been the case for most of history. Japan immediately goes nuclear if that happens, and the NW Pacific becomes greatly destabilized.

    What everyone should be aiming for is a North Korea that resembles Cold War East Germany or Yugoslavia, rather than Stalinist Russia.

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    • Replies: @Eagle Eye

    What everyone should be aiming for is a North Korea that resembles Cold War East Germany or Yugoslavia, rather than Stalinist Russia.
     
    Excellent observation.
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  14. @anony-mouse
    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as 'proof' that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out

    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

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    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented."

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind. Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.
    , @Karl
    14 Twinkie > Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children


    some Korean chicks are quite hot - and considering that the country has the world's highest prevalence of cosmetic plastic surgery, why wouldn't they be - if heavy-on-the-slant-with-kimchi is your cup of tea, then I recommend shopping for one at the Micronesia Mall in Guam
    , @Patrick Harris
    It makes sense: in another couple of decades there will be no South Koreans who remember a unified country or have significant family ties to the North.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.
     
    Derb has made the same point about Ulster. The British, at least the English, are sick of it and ready to give it back. But the subsidies keeping the peace will cost the Irish twelve times as much per capita, so they'll be in no hurry to reunite.
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  15. All I know is I that I don’t want to pay one god damned dime for any reunification costs. Let China absorb the cost of supporting the Midget Madmen over the decades.

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  16. Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?

    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.

    2. It is constrained by its treaty obligations with the U.S. in weaponizing these dual-use technologies.

    3. Retaining weaponized nuclear devices would dramatically raise tension with both China and the U.S., and is highly unlikely to be chosen by a responsible South Korean government.

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    • Replies: @istevefan

    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.
     
    Great point. North Korean tech is unreliable. South Korea has the knowledge and ability to obtain nuclear weapons if they want them, and they could develop superior ICBMs. The question is why would they keep inferior technology?

    The West Germans inherited a bunch of stuff from East Germany, but got rid of it, .e.g Mig-29s.
    , @bb.
    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn't agree that it was necessarily 'irresponsible'. I might be wrong, but aren't the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there? Aren't the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet? I can imagine that could be the cornerstone of any future talks between them - ''hey, we might not see eye to eye on many thing but at least we agree on the important stuff, like we hate everyone else equally - especially the goddamn japs'' - as such, I can imagine keeping the nukes to be a possible (suitable) concession by the Souths, with a promises to the international community to deal with them...eventually. Eventually can take a long time.

    I think it ultimately comes down to ambition - and I don't know what their ambitions are, but they have all the prerequisites to become a bona fide world power. With the Souths superior tech they could leapfrog to high end ICBMs in short time - all the hardware, technical infrastructure and test sites are already in place in the North - just needs upgrades. Russia could be a potential ally in this regard - they could hedge their position against China in the long run with an rich and armed (swiss like) neighbor.
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  17. David Hasselhoff will provide the musical accompaniment while a lot of hungry people head south to raid the LG refrigerators.

    We will watch it all on Samsung TVs and tweet about it on Galaxies.

    Muslim “refugees” will begin to arrive from the Philippines as China makes its final, complete grab of the South China Sea.

    The nukes will turn out not to exist, but our Army will never leave.

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    • Agree: Autochthon
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  18. This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    The Cold War created a strange political dynamic where the Korean right-wing is actually more cucked in that regard than the left-wing.

    The left-wing sides with their ethnic and racial kin across the DMZ, while the right-wing invites foreign soldiers to dick their women.

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    • Replies: @snorlax
    The Korean left is certainly more nationalistic, but I wouldn't say the right is "more cucked" so much as "not insane."

    It is certainly possible to take nationalism to the point of insanity, like the WWII Japanese military or their German allies. Seeking, at the minimum, to aid the depraved, communist Kim regime in retaining power in North Korea makes Hideki Tojo look like he was taking all his lithium pills.

    There are few ideologies, indignities or foreign peoples I (or any rational person) would not side with in preference to rule by North Korea, even were they my "ethnic and racial kin." That would in fact steel my opposition further, as there'd be no way to "side with" my enslaved co-ethnics other than against their ethnic-traitor enslavers.

    And as far as indignities go, hosting (friendly) US military bases is pretty small potatoes; they actually make for pretty good neighbors, as Filipinos discovered after getting what they wished for in Subic Bay. Still, I can understand the rage induced by female fraternizing with other, more-masculinized races. But there's no point in being a brainier race if you can't act rationally.
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  19. First, South Korea will have to become much, much, much richer. Enough to pay to support millions of physically ill people on effective welfare for decades.

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  20. @Twinkie

    Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?
     
    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.

    2. It is constrained by its treaty obligations with the U.S. in weaponizing these dual-use technologies.

    3. Retaining weaponized nuclear devices would dramatically raise tension with both China and the U.S., and is highly unlikely to be chosen by a responsible South Korean government.

    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.

    Great point. North Korean tech is unreliable. South Korea has the knowledge and ability to obtain nuclear weapons if they want them, and they could develop superior ICBMs. The question is why would they keep inferior technology?

    The West Germans inherited a bunch of stuff from East Germany, but got rid of it, .e.g Mig-29s.

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    • Replies: @Lurker
    Germany got rid of stuff like MiG-29s (to Poland) since I suspect it wasn't worth the logistical problems that would entail.Incompatible with existing equipment, possible issues getting spares from Russia.

    The re-unified German railways (DB) however still use Soviet diesel locos and E. German electric locos today.

    , @J.Ross
    A lot of it they got rid of by allowing it to flood the black market. That would be a good warning to keep in mind.
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  21. Estimated TFR of North Korea (2017): 1.95

    Estimated TFR of South Korea: 1.26

    Median age of North Koreans: 34

    Median age of South Koreans: 42

    Also:

    The survey asked a total of 1,655 men and women if they wished to migrate out of South Korea, to which 78.6 percent of the participants responded that they would if they could. Among them, 47.9 percent were already making actual plans to exit the country.

    The younger generation showed stronger intentions to leave, with 80 percent of the participants in their 20s expressing a desire to move to foreign lands, as compared to individuals in their 40s (72.4 percent) and those above the age of 50 (59 percent).

    https://en.rocketnews24.com/2016/01/28/seven-reasons-why-80-percent-of-young-south-koreans-dont-want-to-live-in-their-own-country/

    Idk, but it seems like assumptions of South absorbing North are a wee bit premature.

    Time favors the Norks.

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    • Replies: @TheUmpteenthGermanOnHere
    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.
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  22. @snorlax

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.
     
    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions
     
    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    That’s a very usable template of a sentence applicable to many a nation’s populace.

    For example,

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to American conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that Russia (and North Koreans/Iran) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Saudis (and Israelis) are their friends.

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    • LOL: Twinkie
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  23. @anony-mouse
    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as 'proof' that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans

    When Hines Ward’s (the half black, half Korean all-pro wide receiver) career went south, many Koreans noted the fact that he can’t be blamed for the fact that he is only half Korean.

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    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    "... many Koreans noted the fact that he can’t be blamed for the fact that he is only half Korean."
     
    Yeah, but think of how enlightened a statement that is.

    To Steve's question, does the proverbial bear ...?

    They'd keep them and improve on them. They'd probably start selling cheaper nukes to powers like the US under the "Life's Good" brand.
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  24. @Twinkie

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out
     
    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

    “Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.”

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind. Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind.
     
    Koreans born in America (and not just women) have very high rates of out-marriage. But the vast majority is to whites, not blacks.

    Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.
     
    You seem, let's say, a tad obsessive about this topic.
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  25. @Anonymous
    Sorta OT but if the post is about SK it is probably Olympic influenced....

    No doubt some don't watch the Olympics and don't watch figure skating, but I find it worth noting that the SK ice dancing male (at least in the team competition) is a white American. And the Japan ice dancing male is a half-white American.

    I'm an anti-globalist, but to each their own.

    Since I’m currently in Asia, I got to see the Switzerland-vs-Korea women’s hockey game live on TV. The Swiss really dominated as the 8-0 shut-out suggests. The Swiss women were truly a joy to behold: fast and agile skaters, great stick handling, well-developed and executed plays, and aggressive. To boot, they were pretty and appeared to be wearing makeup too. I have no idea what expectations were for the Korean team, but they never stood a chance in that match-up.

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    • Replies: @jim jones
    NORK cheerleaders are pretty scary

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOTnDs-AK38
    , @Chrisnonymous
    Just watched Switzerland-vs-Japan. Switzerland again, 3-1. Not a great game with several goals that occurred by accident. The Japanese really hustled at the end after pulling their goalie--it's the national character.

    The thing that really struck me in this game was how much more advantage it seemed to be to pull a goalie over having a power play. Something about density of players on the ice?
    , @Twinkie
    South Korea has ZERO tradition of ice hockey, so it's not surprising that it'd lose to every team in the Olympics. Why, they are even importing whites to fill their men's team: https://globalnews.ca/news/3938226/canadians-hockey-south-korea-2018-olympic-games/

    South Korea's best event in the Winter Olympics is the short track, in which they have won the vast majority of their winter medals (something like 40+ out of 50-some).
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  26. @Chuck

    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.
     
    The Cold War created a strange political dynamic where the Korean right-wing is actually more cucked in that regard than the left-wing.

    The left-wing sides with their ethnic and racial kin across the DMZ, while the right-wing invites foreign soldiers to dick their women.

    The Korean left is certainly more nationalistic, but I wouldn’t say the right is “more cucked” so much as “not insane.”

    It is certainly possible to take nationalism to the point of insanity, like the WWII Japanese military or their German allies. Seeking, at the minimum, to aid the depraved, communist Kim regime in retaining power in North Korea makes Hideki Tojo look like he was taking all his lithium pills.

    There are few ideologies, indignities or foreign peoples I (or any rational person) would not side with in preference to rule by North Korea, even were they my “ethnic and racial kin.” That would in fact steel my opposition further, as there’d be no way to “side with” my enslaved co-ethnics other than against their ethnic-traitor enslavers.

    And as far as indignities go, hosting (friendly) US military bases is pretty small potatoes; they actually make for pretty good neighbors, as Filipinos discovered after getting what they wished for in Subic Bay. Still, I can understand the rage induced by female fraternizing with other, more-masculinized races. But there’s no point in being a brainier race if you can’t act rationally.

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    • Replies: @Chuck
    The Cuck:

    Jamal's penis is bigger than mine. It's only sensible that he focus on pleasing my wife while I design microchips. This is a rational division of labor.
    , @Anonymous
    It's far less rage and more amusement. American servicemen tend to attract the uggos, and quite often Filipina prostitutes.
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  27. @istevefan

    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.
     
    Great point. North Korean tech is unreliable. South Korea has the knowledge and ability to obtain nuclear weapons if they want them, and they could develop superior ICBMs. The question is why would they keep inferior technology?

    The West Germans inherited a bunch of stuff from East Germany, but got rid of it, .e.g Mig-29s.

    Germany got rid of stuff like MiG-29s (to Poland) since I suspect it wasn’t worth the logistical problems that would entail.Incompatible with existing equipment, possible issues getting spares from Russia.

    The re-unified German railways (DB) however still use Soviet diesel locos and E. German electric locos today.

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  28. A lot of people think of Korea and Germany as similar, but they really aren’t.
    1. North and South Korea are a lot farther apart financially, and a lot closer in population size, meaning the hit to the economy will be much bigger.
    2. The division was the result of an actual civil war rather than something imposed by outsiders (although obviously some of the same global forces were at play), they have been divided for much longer than the Germans, and the North-South division actually falls along a somewhat natural divide that has existed in the country since before the war, meaning there is much less cultural affinity between the two sides.

    From my experience talking to South Koreans, there isn’t all that much desire to unify. At the same time, they clearly don’t like the status quo, and they don’t want the North to be absorbed into China. I could see a very slow normalizing of trade, followed much later by freedom of movement, and maybe after we are all dead actual unification as being an acceptable solution to most South Koreans,

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Maybe Seoul and Pyongyang will go the Beijing and Taipei route? Two separate states but lots of travel back and forth. It looks like there are ten flights a day from Taipei to Beijing, even without a solution of the political situation.
    , @Peter Akuleyev
    On the other hand, Korea was a unified entity a lot longer than Germany. To this day Brandenburg and Saxony probably have less in common with Bavaria than North Korea does with South. The religious split in Germany left deep scars. When I lived in West Germany in 1983, most of my German peers (teen-agers, granted) were very dismissive of the idea of reunification. I suspect reunification of Korea could happen shockingly fast.

    The other difference between Korea and Germany, is that North Korea, unlike East Germany, is actually very resource rich. It has trillions of dollars worth of iron, gold, magnesite, zinc, copper, limestone, molybdenum, graphite, and all sorts of "rare earth" metals. The untold story in the whole Korea dispute is the race to grab those resources. The Chinese have already invested billions to mine it, and import billions every year. One advantage of sanctions, from the US and S.Korea point of view, is to stop China from completely raping North Korea before some future unification.
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  29. @anony-mouse
    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as 'proof' that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    #3: South Korea has claimed to have invented Chinese writing and soccer, among other things.

    Chinese govt got upset, Japan ignored it.

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  30. @Anonymous
    As a decades-long U.S. expat in Japan, I can tell you that resistance to anything nuclear is very high here. I'm actually surprised that bananas are legal. Given the problems just getting the power plants online again, I can't imagine a nuclear weapons program. Personally, I would support it, as a way to keep China less aggressive.

    Japanese have a warped view of how they are seen in the U.S., which makes them think that "daddy" will always take care of them. Generally, Americans are friendly to them, but there is plenty of bigotry just below the surface. A lot of Americans think of Japanese as genetically warlike and reformed Nazis. Somehow they can't distinguish between American colonial activity and Japanese colonial activity, and they don't register that the U.S. destroyed civilian cities with firebombing and nuclear bombs, not to mention the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans).

    The Japanese Diet has no far-right parties, but there is a non-trivial communist party and a couple of socialist parties. Civil servants below the upper management level tend to lean socialist/communist. There is a religion of pacifism, especially among women.

    As far as Korea goes, Japanese have a much more realistic view of things than Americans. The crazy stories about North Korea that are so popular in the U.S. media don't get much play here. Korea, North and South, are constantly in the news here, and there is lot of on-the-ground reporting and many informed commentators, including Japanse-speaking Koreans. They know that North Korea is an authoritarian dictatorship, but they also know that they are rational actors.

    I take exception to your comments on Americans. I would say that most Americans simply don’t think about overseas commitments in general, nevermind our relationship with Japan. To the extent that Americans have any impressions of the Japanese, they don’t really think of them as warlike. That characterizes people who are in their 60s or 70s and older, but young people are as likely to associate Japan with crazy YouTube videos. Also, there were lots of prisoners in WWII. When the war ended, there was a demobilization of Japanese across Asia, and the US oversaw their processing and repatriation. They weren’t slaughtered or brutalized. Your implications about the US character are undeserved.

    Also, Japanese communists are not like the CPUSA was, and people I know here are uneasy with the North Korean situation.

    Overall, my sense is that, while reliance on American protection and opposition to nuclear weapons is widespread, it is also quite shallow, based as it is–as so many things are here–on unreflective consensus.

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    • Replies: @Disordered
    Agreed, as a millennial I really cannot picture the Japanese of today, with their cosplays and tendency to overwork in quiet cubicles until they die alone or commit suicide, as warlike people.
    Though I'd argue that the uneasiness about NK's nukes must get old, just like eventually both Soviets and Americans grew out of the nuclear holocaust fear of the 50s. Not to say that precautions shouldn't be taken, but when playing with nukes every side knows there's no winner; so actual engaging must get tiring.

    Regarding the hypothetical, I think a united Korea would make China park tons of missiles and troops across the border, and build a wall that might put Trump's to shame. This might also make Japan allow for a defensive military buildup. If Japan remains too pacifist and doesn't want nukes too, then at least there would be a commitment to remain Korea's ally, which would have to be brokered by Daddy US of cour$e.

    In reality, I doubt the Kim regime ever falls. If Fidel died and Cuba remains commie (if moving in the Vietnam NEP direction), I can't imagine a quite fiercer dictator family giving up - not without mass "struggle sessions". If anything, at least Trump does not drink the Kool-Aid and knows that NK can't be dealt with, just ignored and threatened with rhetoric until they extend an olive branch - as is happening in the Winter Olympics. Or idk, here's hoping yet another complex foreign policy problem gets solved.
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  31. I think South Korean-American relations have improved since American skater Apolo Anton Ohno retired from Olympic short track skating. No matter what disasters would befall the South Korean skaters, Ohno would wind up with a medal, such as in the Steve Bradbury race:

    The South Koreans hated Ohno as some sort of one-man Nippo-Yank conspiracy against the Korean race.

    https://www.sltrib.com/sports/2017/08/08/scott-d-pierce-apolo-ohno-headed-for-s-korea-where-they-hate-him/

    “Scott D. Pierce: Apolo Ohno headed for South Korea, where they hate him”

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    • Agree: snorlax
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  32. If South Korea Absorbs the Norks, 1989-Style, Will Seoul Keep Their Nukes?

    Of course they will. Getting your hands on nukes is probably the only practical reason for Korean unification. (Also for this reason they’ll probably preserve the North Korean military in some fashion, instead of full-on absorption.)

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    • Replies: @bartok
    The US will undo decades of policy advocating a nuclear-free peninsula ... why exactly? Even if the Koreas wanted to come together on those terms, the US would prevent it. And China would prevent it as well.

    Nobody needs an independent actor on the peninsula.
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  33. @Jon
    A lot of people think of Korea and Germany as similar, but they really aren't.
    1. North and South Korea are a lot farther apart financially, and a lot closer in population size, meaning the hit to the economy will be much bigger.
    2. The division was the result of an actual civil war rather than something imposed by outsiders (although obviously some of the same global forces were at play), they have been divided for much longer than the Germans, and the North-South division actually falls along a somewhat natural divide that has existed in the country since before the war, meaning there is much less cultural affinity between the two sides.

    From my experience talking to South Koreans, there isn't all that much desire to unify. At the same time, they clearly don't like the status quo, and they don't want the North to be absorbed into China. I could see a very slow normalizing of trade, followed much later by freedom of movement, and maybe after we are all dead actual unification as being an acceptable solution to most South Koreans,

    Maybe Seoul and Pyongyang will go the Beijing and Taipei route? Two separate states but lots of travel back and forth. It looks like there are ten flights a day from Taipei to Beijing, even without a solution of the political situation.

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    • Replies: @Jim Christian
    Ever been to Taipei, Steve? I have a visit to Taipei 101 on my bucket list. It opened in 2004, I wondered if Allah would take a crack at it with a direct flight someday. Asia doesn't seem to stir such animus with Allah. Perhaps Allah and the various Deities of the Orient are buddies..
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c9/Taipei101.portrait.altonthompson.jpg/480px-Taipei101.portrait.altonthompson.jpg

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Taipei101fireworks.jpg

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  34. @Jon

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans
     
    When Hines Ward's (the half black, half Korean all-pro wide receiver) career went south, many Koreans noted the fact that he can't be blamed for the fact that he is only half Korean.

    “… many Koreans noted the fact that he can’t be blamed for the fact that he is only half Korean.”

    Yeah, but think of how enlightened a statement that is.

    To Steve’s question, does the proverbial bear …?

    They’d keep them and improve on them. They’d probably start selling cheaper nukes to powers like the US under the “Life’s Good” brand.

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  35. Regarding the example of South Africa:

    Apartheid South Africa did have nuclear weapons but of course always denied that they did just as the Zionist entity does to this day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

    The South Africa nukes were apparently tested perhaps in joint tests with Israel.
    US satellites detected disturbances in the atmosphere in the Southern Indian Ocean consistent with nuclear detonations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident

    At the fall of white rule in South Africa the apartheid government agreed that all the nuclear material would be removed for safekeeping by the United States. This happened prior to the turnover of power. Someone perhaps thought a leader in the mold of Jacob Zuma with nukes wasn’t a good fit.

    A reporter asked one of the apartheid officials responsible for the nuclear weapons: why would you want to have these weapons in the first place. He answered that they never intended to use them -
    that their development was the result of an optimistic can-do attitude. True or BS it is a sign of how technologically advanced the SA’s were. Not merely in this, in 1967 Christiaan Barnard beat the Americans in the race to achieve the first successful heart transplant.

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    • Replies: @PV van der Byl
    The South Africans would have used nukes against a massed Soviet/East German/Cuban tank assault against South Africa itself. They would have detonated one device (in fact, they planned to do so in 1977 but backed off from Jimmy Carter's threats) first to demonstrate that capability, thereby hoping to draw in the US/Nato countries into an effort to deter the Soviet move.

    Obviously, nukes would have been no use in controlling urban riots as per 1976.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Someone perhaps thought a leader in the mold of Jacob Zuma with nukes wasn’t a good fit
     
    Ah, but the effects of nuclear explosives can be cured by throwing a hand grenade at a virgin. So it wasn't as dire as it appears.
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  36. The endgame here is Taiwan nuking up. That will be the logical consequence, and every hell would break loose then.

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  37. @Twinkie

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out
     
    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

    14 Twinkie > Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children

    some Korean chicks are quite hot – and considering that the country has the world’s highest prevalence of cosmetic plastic surgery, why wouldn’t they be – if heavy-on-the-slant-with-kimchi is your cup of tea, then I recommend shopping for one at the Micronesia Mall in Guam

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    I think Twinkie is happily married. But even if he is not, I don't think he would consider 'shopping for one' as a preferred strategy for locating a soulmate.
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  38. The South Koreans, upon absorbing the North, would probably agree not to keep nukes they had no legal right to but would dispose of them very slowly over the course of the unification process, just like the South Africans under the ANC didn’t keep the apartheid-era nukes and the former Soviet states surrendered their nukes to Russia. If your country is roiled with economic turmoil and political upheaval then a bunch of old nukes with obsolete delivery systems, guarded by soldiers who might not have been paid in a while, aren’t an asset so much as a nightmare. For now Japan seems content to rely on a six-month window to nuclearization, and Korea would probably ensure that it was capable of that as well.

    As for Korean nationalism, one of the most insightful books on this subject is a book called “The Cleanest Race” by Brian Reynolds Myers. In China’s orbit, “nationalism” is a fairly plastic concept: when Korea was a Chinese protectorate the Koreans prided themselves on being more Chinese than the Chinese, when it was a Japanese colony they declared themselves a “brother race” of Japan. The DPRK’s political and military culture owe as much to the old Japanese empire as to any Communist model. It’s only since the end of WW2 and the Korean War that the kind of jingoistic hyper-nationalism you see today in South Korea grew up there in isolation (along with a lot of revisionist history white-washing Korean complicity in the Japanese imperial project). Now, with the costs of any possible future reunification continuing to soar past those of the two Germanies, while South Korea still hasn’t quite achieved the old West German standard of living, one begins to hear a lot more South Koreans saying “Gee, maybe we really aren’t one nation after all.”

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  39. Maybe this whole thing is a scam for South Korea to get nukes without getting sanctioned

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  40. I should also state that, in my view, the U.S. remains the main factor hindering Korean reunification. The North Korean regime has become a nightmare for China as much as the rest of the world, and is only propped up because the Chinese would find the presence of U.S. military bases with a direct land route to Beijing completely intolerable. I think it would be possible for the U.S. to cut a deal with China where the bases closed in exchange for the engineered fall of the DPRK regime and a unified peninsula under a neutral government, a “Finlandized” Korea that (after the a few rough decades rebuilding the northern half of the country) would still be a pretty cool place to live and do business with. That future Korea obviously wouldn’t thumb its nose at non-preliferation treaties to retain a bunch of cruddy old nukes.

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    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    such a deal was my biggest hope for the Trump presidency, but by now it seems that he unfortunately won't choose this path.
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  41. Koreans and Chinese are pretty different, so I doubt it. Chinese are irrepressible wheeler-dealers, so the back and forth between China and Taiwan would take a great deal of effort to suppress.

    There is actually a lot of contact between North and South Koreans, but not in the Korean peninsula. There are two or three million Koreans in China, including hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees. As far as I could tell, they have found common ground in Christianity, which is the dominant religion among Koreans living in China. In China, Christianity is practiced mostly underground by Koreans, and has become something of a distinguishing ethnic trait that helps maintain Korean identity in the midst of a dominant Han majority.

    I used to live in a largely Korean neighborhood in Beijing, where I came across a number of North Koreans employed as wait staff in local restaurants, etc. The North Koreans who were a couple years younger than I was at the time were severely stunted. When I was seated at a table I could look the North Korean waitresses eye to eye. I also heard rumors that a number of them were working as prostitutes nearby, and that there had been summary deportation raids at one apartment block or another from time to time. My neighborhood was so Korean that most times when I got wrong number calls I’d hear “yabaseo” instead of “wei” due to the locality code on my phone number. Suffice it to say that there are lots of Koreans in China.

    So my guess is that whatever sort of rapprochement happens, it will occur mainly in China. Given the intercourse between North and South Koreans in the PRC, there’s got to be a lot of stuff diffusing back into North Korea from China. I don’t really know, but I’d guess that Christianity is a big part of it. Partly because of the widespread Christianization of the Koreans in China, but also because Christianity is the kind of religion that can sustain people in the brutal conditions of North Korea. So, as strange as it may sound to a lot of Westerners, a spiritual reunification of the Korean people may already be underway, under the auspices of a religion originally introduced by foreign missionaries and cultivated in the atheist People’s Republic of China.

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    • Replies: @Jeff77450
    That is interesting. Thank you.
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  42. @mobi
    Estimated TFR of North Korea (2017): 1.95

    Estimated TFR of South Korea: 1.26

    Median age of North Koreans: 34

    Median age of South Koreans: 42

    Also:

    The survey asked a total of 1,655 men and women if they wished to migrate out of South Korea, to which 78.6 percent of the participants responded that they would if they could. Among them, 47.9 percent were already making actual plans to exit the country.

    The younger generation showed stronger intentions to leave, with 80 percent of the participants in their 20s expressing a desire to move to foreign lands, as compared to individuals in their 40s (72.4 percent) and those above the age of 50 (59 percent).
     
    https://en.rocketnews24.com/2016/01/28/seven-reasons-why-80-percent-of-young-south-koreans-dont-want-to-live-in-their-own-country/

    Idk, but it seems like assumptions of South absorbing North are a wee bit premature.

    Time favors the Norks.

    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.

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    • Replies: @mobi

    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.
     
    Except for the part about the huge fertility gap.

    And 80% of young West Germans not looking to escape.

    And the difference between one's patron and backup being late-communist Russia, vs early-capitalist China.

    But other than that, yes - the analogy's almost perfect.

    , @Twinkie
    Genau!
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  43. @Twinkie

    Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?
     
    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.

    2. It is constrained by its treaty obligations with the U.S. in weaponizing these dual-use technologies.

    3. Retaining weaponized nuclear devices would dramatically raise tension with both China and the U.S., and is highly unlikely to be chosen by a responsible South Korean government.

    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn’t agree that it was necessarily ‘irresponsible’. I might be wrong, but aren’t the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there? Aren’t the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet? I can imagine that could be the cornerstone of any future talks between them – ”hey, we might not see eye to eye on many thing but at least we agree on the important stuff, like we hate everyone else equally – especially the goddamn japs” – as such, I can imagine keeping the nukes to be a possible (suitable) concession by the Souths, with a promises to the international community to deal with them…eventually. Eventually can take a long time.

    I think it ultimately comes down to ambition – and I don’t know what their ambitions are, but they have all the prerequisites to become a bona fide world power. With the Souths superior tech they could leapfrog to high end ICBMs in short time – all the hardware, technical infrastructure and test sites are already in place in the North – just needs upgrades. Russia could be a potential ally in this regard – they could hedge their position against China in the long run with an rich and armed (swiss like) neighbor.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Aren’t the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet?
     
    No. Not even for a developed country. Maybe Japan could aim for that title.

    And they don't really have ambitions as such. Like much of the world, they're suffering from a lack of purpose and meaning.
    , @Twinkie

    Aren’t the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet?
     
    North Koreans are in the running for that title, yes. South Koreans? Heck no.

    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn’t agree that it was necessarily ‘irresponsible’.
     
    It would be stupid and irresponsible in the extreme to abrogate its agreements with the U.S., anger China, and alarm Japan to become a nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles power for South Korea. These are only the largest trading partners for South Korea which depends on trade for prosperity.

    I might be wrong, but aren’t the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there?
     
    Yes, you are wrong. Koreans have a perennial love-hate relationship with their American uncle. Half the country hates the idea of the Yankees on its soil, the other half is just so grateful to uncle... which is to say, that it is a politically divided country, rather like... the United States in this regard.
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  44. @Chrisnonymous
    Since I'm currently in Asia, I got to see the Switzerland-vs-Korea women's hockey game live on TV. The Swiss really dominated as the 8-0 shut-out suggests. The Swiss women were truly a joy to behold: fast and agile skaters, great stick handling, well-developed and executed plays, and aggressive. To boot, they were pretty and appeared to be wearing makeup too. I have no idea what expectations were for the Korean team, but they never stood a chance in that match-up.

    NORK cheerleaders are pretty scary

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    • Replies: @songbird
    That would be an awesome troll on the establishment to hire these gals out to cheer some of the more obnoxious politicians in the West. Merkel. Pelosi. Trudeau. Anyone who gave Castro a good sendoff.

    Too bad they are stuck there.
    , @Robert Hume
    Not very diverse. Don’t know why we should be afraid of NK.
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  45. @Anonymous
    I don't really exactly know the facts here, but I'm under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the "democratic, multiracial" SA government gave this up. That's hopeful, in a way, if true.

    F.W. De Klerk wrote that he decided to dismantle the South African nuclear arsenal in 1989, before the end of Apartheid. The process was finished in 1991.

    The core of the regional and national threats that confronted us before 1989 did not lie in military weakness but in escalating tensions between black and white South Africans arising from apartheid. The solution was not the acquisition of greater military power through the development of nuclear weapons but the abolition of apartheid and the negotiation of a new non-racial constitution.

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-deklerk-south-africa-nukes-20131222-story.html

    (Was his solution right though?)

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  46. @Canadian Observer
    Reunification hasn't happened since the 1950s. Why would it suddenly happen now? The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

    The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

    No, it’s weaker than ever. Kim is still young and unproven. Economic reforms have created an actual class of business owners – for the first time in North Korean history there are some alternative power centers to the Party and the Military. More importantly, the information wall has been cracking for some time. Tens of thousands, if not already hundreds of thousands, of North Koreans have travelled to or worked in China, and know very well how far behind the rest of the world the DPRK is falling. There is a thriving black market in South Korean and Chinese media, which also undercut the regime’s message. One reason why Kim is so desperate to have a working ICBM is to gain credibility and legitimacy.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.

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    • Replies: @The Z Blog

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.
     
    That same line of reasoning was popular in the 1980's, with regards to the Soviets. In the end, it was the application of pressure on several fronts that caused the regime to crack.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.
    , @reiner Tor

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes.
     
    That's a possibility, but far from a certainty. The North Korean population has known that they are far behind the rest of the world for the past couple of decades. They now live better than ever before. Or at least, used to live better than ever before, until the sanctions started to bite last year. It's far from clear if they blame the regime for the sanctions or the US, or their big brother China, or South Koreans, or someone else. Meanwhile, the nuclear program probably does give the regime some legitimacy. And at least the top leadership (including Kim himself) is as willing to use violence to prop up its rule as ever.
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  47. @MJMD
    I should also state that, in my view, the U.S. remains the main factor hindering Korean reunification. The North Korean regime has become a nightmare for China as much as the rest of the world, and is only propped up because the Chinese would find the presence of U.S. military bases with a direct land route to Beijing completely intolerable. I think it would be possible for the U.S. to cut a deal with China where the bases closed in exchange for the engineered fall of the DPRK regime and a unified peninsula under a neutral government, a "Finlandized" Korea that (after the a few rough decades rebuilding the northern half of the country) would still be a pretty cool place to live and do business with. That future Korea obviously wouldn't thumb its nose at non-preliferation treaties to retain a bunch of cruddy old nukes.

    such a deal was my biggest hope for the Trump presidency, but by now it seems that he unfortunately won’t choose this path.

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  48. @Anonymous
    I don't really exactly know the facts here, but I'm under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the "democratic, multiracial" SA government gave this up. That's hopeful, in a way, if true.

    I don’t really exactly know the facts here, but I’m under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the “democratic, multiracial” SA government gave this up. That’s hopeful, in a way, if true.

    The National party government in South Africa – that is the government up to April 1994 – most definitely did have nuclear weapons. The last white state president – FW De Klerk – de-commissioned these and disbanded the South African unit responsible, based at Pelindaba just west of Pretoria – before the April 1994 all race elections that resulted in the formation of the ANC government under Nelson Mandela.

    The South African nuclear weapons program operated in close cahoots with the Israelis, as they did on other defence matters from fighter aircraft, through tanks to assault rifles.

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  49. @Jon
    A lot of people think of Korea and Germany as similar, but they really aren't.
    1. North and South Korea are a lot farther apart financially, and a lot closer in population size, meaning the hit to the economy will be much bigger.
    2. The division was the result of an actual civil war rather than something imposed by outsiders (although obviously some of the same global forces were at play), they have been divided for much longer than the Germans, and the North-South division actually falls along a somewhat natural divide that has existed in the country since before the war, meaning there is much less cultural affinity between the two sides.

    From my experience talking to South Koreans, there isn't all that much desire to unify. At the same time, they clearly don't like the status quo, and they don't want the North to be absorbed into China. I could see a very slow normalizing of trade, followed much later by freedom of movement, and maybe after we are all dead actual unification as being an acceptable solution to most South Koreans,

    On the other hand, Korea was a unified entity a lot longer than Germany. To this day Brandenburg and Saxony probably have less in common with Bavaria than North Korea does with South. The religious split in Germany left deep scars. When I lived in West Germany in 1983, most of my German peers (teen-agers, granted) were very dismissive of the idea of reunification. I suspect reunification of Korea could happen shockingly fast.

    The other difference between Korea and Germany, is that North Korea, unlike East Germany, is actually very resource rich. It has trillions of dollars worth of iron, gold, magnesite, zinc, copper, limestone, molybdenum, graphite, and all sorts of “rare earth” metals. The untold story in the whole Korea dispute is the race to grab those resources. The Chinese have already invested billions to mine it, and import billions every year. One advantage of sanctions, from the US and S.Korea point of view, is to stop China from completely raping North Korea before some future unification.

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  50. @Anonymous
    As a decades-long U.S. expat in Japan, I can tell you that resistance to anything nuclear is very high here. I'm actually surprised that bananas are legal. Given the problems just getting the power plants online again, I can't imagine a nuclear weapons program. Personally, I would support it, as a way to keep China less aggressive.

    Japanese have a warped view of how they are seen in the U.S., which makes them think that "daddy" will always take care of them. Generally, Americans are friendly to them, but there is plenty of bigotry just below the surface. A lot of Americans think of Japanese as genetically warlike and reformed Nazis. Somehow they can't distinguish between American colonial activity and Japanese colonial activity, and they don't register that the U.S. destroyed civilian cities with firebombing and nuclear bombs, not to mention the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans).

    The Japanese Diet has no far-right parties, but there is a non-trivial communist party and a couple of socialist parties. Civil servants below the upper management level tend to lean socialist/communist. There is a religion of pacifism, especially among women.

    As far as Korea goes, Japanese have a much more realistic view of things than Americans. The crazy stories about North Korea that are so popular in the U.S. media don't get much play here. Korea, North and South, are constantly in the news here, and there is lot of on-the-ground reporting and many informed commentators, including Japanse-speaking Koreans. They know that North Korea is an authoritarian dictatorship, but they also know that they are rational actors.

    “the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans)”

    I’ve been reading two memoirs of the war against the Japanese by British writers who fought in Burma: Quartered Safe Out Here by George Macdonald Fraser, author of the Flashman novels (the title is ironic: he wasn’t safe); and The Road Beyond Mandalay by John Masters, author of many novels about British India and other subjects, whom I wholeheartedly recommend. Both these men note the lack of (unwounded) prisoners and state the simple reason for it, which was the Japanese habit of fighting to the death. Masters says that in his opinion most Japanese soldiers, had they been British or American, would have been eligible for the Victoria Cross or Congressional Medal of Honor.

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    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Right, and after US soldiers found the mutilated remains of their buddies, there were less than eager to take Japanese prisoners alive.
    , @Duke of Qin
    The Japanese didn't fight to the death because they were especially brave, they fought to the death because their government intentionally gave them no choice in the matter. The Japanese government knew, even if not quite to the exact extent in reality, their material and technological disadvantage vis-à-vis the allies and thus were determined to bridge this gap with "fighting spirit". How do you make men fight harder beyond rational limits of self preservation? By intentionally making surrender an impossible option. The brutality of the Japanese during WW2 was not a necessity born by material circumstance, but rather a deliberate strategic choice by their high command to make certain Japanese soldiers did not desert/surrender en masse. The Japanese soldiers knew full well the brutality they were inflicting on their enemies and that they could expect reciprocity in kind. They kept fighting not out purely of courage, but because they feared being brutalized in turn.

    You can see the logic of this kind of thinking in action in Germany. On the eastern front; No quarter asked, none given. However, on the Western front, German soldiers weren't so determined to make suicidal last stands knowing that German POW's in British/American hands had something like 98% survival rates and were being better fed than the Wehrmacht.
    , @Anonymous
    https://www.counter-currents.com/2015/07/dirty-japs/

    Despite the generally held belief that persists to this day, a belief which argues that all Japanese soldiers willingly, even eagerly, died for the emperor, relatively few young men embraced such an end if there was any hope of living. Like the American, British, and Australian soldiers they were facing, most Japanese soldiers dreamed only of a day when the war was over; when they could return home in peace to family and friends; to marry a sweetheart; to raise a family; to tend a small garden; to enjoy life. Nevertheless, almost from the first, it soon became apparent to these young men that there would be, that there could be, no surrender. Wrote one American early in the war:

    Japanese were known to come out of the jungle unarmed with their hands raised crying ‘”mercy, mercy,” only to be mowed down by machine-gun fire.

    Time and again, on every contested island and every spit of sand, Japanese soldiers and sailors were slaughtered the instant they raised their hands and walked forward to surrender. After scores of such encounters in which breathless comrades in hiding watched, waited, then witnessed the massacre of their unarmed friends, fewer and fewer Japanese soldiers entertained even the slightest notion of giving up.

    Ironically, though murdering a helpless enemy may have brought some sadistic satisfaction to Allied soldiers, the failure to take prisoners insured that thousands of comrades would also be killed by an enemy now forced to dig in and fight to the death. It is also a fact that as the war wore on and defeat became certain, more and more Japanese soldiers would have gladly surrendered if only they could.

    “If men had been allowed to surrender honorably,” admitted one Japanese veteran late in the war, “everybody would have been doing it.”
     
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  51. Red China will not allow a united Korea, even if all nukes were removed. The only way for Korea to be one nation is for China to implode as the USSR did. But various US policies, including harassing Russia endlessly and showing that we intend to destroy the entire Middle East to remake it, have guaranteed that China is always on full alert and has devised plans for all possible US actions to get its hands on North Korea’s untapped resources.

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  52. South Korea could build nukes any time they want. They have the money and the expertise.

    And why would Japan be more worried about nukes in South Korea’s hands than in Kim Jon Un’s?

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  53. The good news for unification is that the North had been the traditional industrial areas, so presumably easier to get up to Western standards rapidly (the Rhinelands (in the West) were that in Germany which made it harder to bring the East up to speed after reunification….

    The hard part is getting rid of the ruling family. Maybe provisional amnesty for all living members and exile to one of their luxury “Six Star” (per Dennis Rodman) islands with the strict proviso that any of them leaving for any reason lose amesty and face summary death for their crimes, and they might step down quietly … ?

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    provisional amnesty for all living members and exile to one of their luxury “Six Star” (per Dennis Rodman) islands with the strict proviso that any of them leaving for any reason lose amesty and face summary death for their crimes, and they might step down quietly … ?
     
    What reason would they have to trust the US (or anyone else) promising that?
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  54. Did you see that North Korean cheerleader beauties? Wow, I’d love to sneak into their hotel in the Olympic village and unify with all of them.

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    • Agree: Coemgen
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  55. @Chrisnonymous
    Since I'm currently in Asia, I got to see the Switzerland-vs-Korea women's hockey game live on TV. The Swiss really dominated as the 8-0 shut-out suggests. The Swiss women were truly a joy to behold: fast and agile skaters, great stick handling, well-developed and executed plays, and aggressive. To boot, they were pretty and appeared to be wearing makeup too. I have no idea what expectations were for the Korean team, but they never stood a chance in that match-up.

    Just watched Switzerland-vs-Japan. Switzerland again, 3-1. Not a great game with several goals that occurred by accident. The Japanese really hustled at the end after pulling their goalie–it’s the national character.

    The thing that really struck me in this game was how much more advantage it seemed to be to pull a goalie over having a power play. Something about density of players on the ice?

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    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Chris, last week the Buffalo Sabres, in a game against Anaheim IIRC, had a power play in the final seconds, so they pulled their goalie. So Buffalo now has six skaters against the Ducks four skaters and their goalie. Problem is there are too many players in one zone to make good passes.
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  56. If Norks Absorb the South Koreans, Will Seoul Keep Their consumerist lifestyles?

    Maybe South and North are now incompatible? I read somewhere N Korea allows no immigration so it is the most ethnically pure country. So maybe unification is now impossibe.

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  57. China, Russia and Japan will ultimately demand complete de-nuclearization in exchange for support for reunification.

    Period.

    IMHO

    Lil’Kim and his crew are pushing tensions in hope of an accomodation with the West. If there is an agreement, then we might see them turning towards the Chinese-Vietnamese reform-model.

    It has to come with a slower pace, but after a transistion-phase it could accerlerate. After all we are talking about an average IQ of 100 here.

    When Best Korea reaches the level of Thailand in socio-economic development (5000USD per capita) there might be the first steps of closer politic/socio/cultural alignment/coordination with the South.

    Maybe some “free” election & one-term as an elected president to give Lil’Kim a peaceful transistion and very importantly post-office immunity for him and the ruling strata of Best Korea. The next gen rulers will be a class of technocrats.

    I don’t think there will be talk of political unification until Best Korea has reached Malaysian levels (10000USD per capita). (See China one country – two system regards Hongkong and Macau)

    I really hope that The Don shows his skill as dealmaker. Maybe Xi is also interested.

    The Don has to step down in 2024 and Xi in 2022. So maybe we will see the deal of century in 2021.

    (Imagine the liberal tears in case of a truly deserved Nobel peace prize in 2022 for The Don & Xi).

    Thirty years later in 2050 – a century of the war – a nearly completely industrialized North and a post-industrial South will finally unify.

    Anyway a unnified or not Korea already possess the technology and the expertise. In case of Worst Korea they already have the money and the delivery-systems. It’s just the freedoom-fries-munchers in Washinton D.C. holding them back.

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  58. @anonymous coward

    If South Korea Absorbs the Norks, 1989-Style, Will Seoul Keep Their Nukes?
     
    Of course they will. Getting your hands on nukes is probably the only practical reason for Korean unification. (Also for this reason they'll probably preserve the North Korean military in some fashion, instead of full-on absorption.)

    The US will undo decades of policy advocating a nuclear-free peninsula … why exactly? Even if the Koreas wanted to come together on those terms, the US would prevent it. And China would prevent it as well.

    Nobody needs an independent actor on the peninsula.

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  59. Japan and Germany must each get a nuclear deterrent. The sooner they do, the sooner the American Empire can leave their territory and restore the sovereignty of Germany and Japan. World War II must come to an end someday.

    The Germans and the Japanese could probably have a credible nuclear deterrent in ten minutes or a few months. I presume the Deep State of both Germany and Japan have contingency plans to get nukes and the means to deliver them.

    The European Union will be obliterated and the euro currency will be vaporized when the Germans get their sovereignty back by inviting the American Empire to leave German soil and when the Germans get a nuclear deterrent. Mass deportations of Merkel’s invasionary army of non-Europeans can then begin.

    Alternative for Deutschland will get stronger as the baby boomer Germans get weaker and more deranged. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton were the peak of baby boomer derangement, those types of baby boomers will be removed from power and their assets will be liquidated.

    I can see a time in the not too distant future when Hillary Clinton and Angela Merkel will be forced to live in deportation centers with the non-Europeans that they helped to flood into the USA and Germany. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton will be sent into exile to Third World areas such as Haiti or the Congo. They won’t be allowed to go into exile in Monaco.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton will be sent into exile to Third World areas such as Haiti or the Congo.
     
    Yes! But of course that is simply too good to come true. Old Scratch isn't going to let his harpies receive their just deserts in this life - that will have to wait for the next.
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  60. Why is everyone assuming that the South would absorb the North into a unified Korea?
    The Kim family has now three generations steeped in politics, a leader who was educated in the West, a large and supposedly well trained and highly motivated land force, and the undeniable symbol of sovereignty nukes. It is to my mind as likely that the North makes the South a beautiful and powerful offer and the united country offers the US military its thanks and a way out.
    A united Korea is Wakanda. Homogenous, Nationalistic, closed to refugees and immigrants; true it lacks Vibranium and is not isolationist, but it is as close to Wakanda as you can get without the malaria.

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  61. @German_reader

    Koreans have always struck me as among the most nationalistic people on earth, so it’s always struck me as plausible that someday the peninsula will be one nation-state.
     
    Not clear at all imo. Germany was only divided for 45 years, and there still was quite a lot of contact between the two halves. But by the end of the 1980s few people still believed in reunification (and many on the West German left have never really accepted it), and the 1945-1990 period has left a lasting legacy. The East-West divide is still very real (not least in attitudes towards "diversity" and immigration) and will persist imo.
    The situation in Korea must be much more extreme...the two halves have now been separated for 70 years, only very old people can still remember a united Korea, and they'll soon be gone. NK has been hermetically sealed off from the south, there's been almost no contact even between relatives. There's the legacy of a bitter war, and of recurrent deadly violence right up to the present. South Korea has been subject to Americanization and even some Christianization...whereas the North Koreans know nothing but an extreme ruler cult and ultra-nationalism.
    So in all probability there really are now two Korean nations. It they ever will be reunified, it will be a traumatic experience and it will take generations for some all-Korean national unity to be reestablished. I'd suppose under those conditions they wouldn't be interested in keeping nukes...all their energies will be absorbed in dealing with intra-Korean issues.

    I am far from an expert on Germany, and I certainly acknowledge the significance of the Cold War and German division, but I have a hunch that a significant number of the East-West differences in Germany can be chalked up to old regional differences that greatly predate the Cold War. Is this true?

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    • Replies: @German_reader
    Not really imo, neither East Germany nor West Germany were historically homogenous regions (East Germany included the remaining core territories of Prussia, but also Saxony which had had its own king until 1918, and Thuringia also had its own identity; and West Germany was even more diverse). The East-West divide as it is today really is mostly due to the 1945-1990 era imo. There's also a North-South divide in Germany which in some ways is more natural and deeper imo. Alternative history is difficult to do right, but I don't think the East-West split as it is today was in any way inevitable or a natural consequence of pre-1945 history.
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  62. There will be a significant US troop presence in Korea even after a hypothetical reunification because that’s what everyone involved wants, China, Japan and probably elite Korean public opinion. (The North Korean nuclear infrastructure would be disassembled.)

    It has been a US security guarantee that has kept South Korea and Japan non-nuclear (it’s what also has kept Germany non-nuclear, much to the relief of Russia). China would like to see that continue, but doesn’t want to disarm itself, therefore someone else needs to Korea and Japan in line, i.e. the United States.

    Really, if some administration is annoyed at something China is doing, it shouldn’t threaten to slap tariffs on Chinese manufactured goods put the squeeze on Apple, etc., it should threaten to remove all troops from South Korea and Japan and see what happens in a couple of years.

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  63. @Peter Akuleyev
    The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

    No, it's weaker than ever. Kim is still young and unproven. Economic reforms have created an actual class of business owners - for the first time in North Korean history there are some alternative power centers to the Party and the Military. More importantly, the information wall has been cracking for some time. Tens of thousands, if not already hundreds of thousands, of North Koreans have travelled to or worked in China, and know very well how far behind the rest of the world the DPRK is falling. There is a thriving black market in South Korean and Chinese media, which also undercut the regime's message. One reason why Kim is so desperate to have a working ICBM is to gain credibility and legitimacy.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.

    That same line of reasoning was popular in the 1980′s, with regards to the Soviets. In the end, it was the application of pressure on several fronts that caused the regime to crack.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.
     
    We can hope. It is the most appealing alternative.
    , @Disordered
    Another example would be Cuba post-Fidel (I assume after brother Raul is dead that the military will take over, perhaps not democratize but probably normalize somewhat like Vietnam).
    , @reiner Tor
    The Soviets broke because leadership just passed into the hands of the reformist faction after the death of Brezhnev. After Andropov died, the anti-reformists tried to push back with Chernenko; but he, too, died quickly, and power passed to Gorbachev. (He was the protégé and designated successor of Andropov, because already Andropov wanted reforms.) He tried to reform the system. Which was essentially impossible to reform. So the system crashed.

    It had very little to do with what the Americans did, though the fact that Reagan was willing to negotiate with Gorbachev and become friendlier with him helped him a lot. Maybe a truly confrontational Reagan could’ve preserved for us the great Soviet Union.
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  64. @Anonymous
    I don't really exactly know the facts here, but I'm under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the "democratic, multiracial" SA government gave this up. That's hopeful, in a way, if true.

    They had 9 warheads I believe. They dismantled them before ceding power to the country’s democratic majority.

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    • Replies: @Gordo
    6 Hiroshima style uranium guns I believe, which they handed over to Uncle Sam.

    Now White South Africans live in shanty towns.
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  65. @Peter Akuleyev
    The North Korean regime is stronger than ever.

    No, it's weaker than ever. Kim is still young and unproven. Economic reforms have created an actual class of business owners - for the first time in North Korean history there are some alternative power centers to the Party and the Military. More importantly, the information wall has been cracking for some time. Tens of thousands, if not already hundreds of thousands, of North Koreans have travelled to or worked in China, and know very well how far behind the rest of the world the DPRK is falling. There is a thriving black market in South Korean and Chinese media, which also undercut the regime's message. One reason why Kim is so desperate to have a working ICBM is to gain credibility and legitimacy.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes.

    That’s a possibility, but far from a certainty. The North Korean population has known that they are far behind the rest of the world for the past couple of decades. They now live better than ever before. Or at least, used to live better than ever before, until the sanctions started to bite last year. It’s far from clear if they blame the regime for the sanctions or the US, or their big brother China, or South Koreans, or someone else. Meanwhile, the nuclear program probably does give the regime some legitimacy. And at least the top leadership (including Kim himself) is as willing to use violence to prop up its rule as ever.

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    • Replies: @Disordered
    It's precisely because they live better than never before and are suddenly hit by the sanctions that the new small business class there will probably dislike anything that encourages more sanctions. That said, you are right in that society would be divided between those that blame Kim and those who would side with him. Then again, if what commentator Peter Akuleyev says about the information wall cracking up is right, then the pro-freedom ones would have the advantage. Wouldn't surprise me, economic development eventually leads to the end of autarchy. And, even if Kim and his nukes remain, he would probably have to allow some slight degree of liberalization eventually, like Raul Castro did... or not, who knows. After all, the Party feeds dissidents to dogs...
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  66. Reunification will have to be a very gradual process. Ideally, it will take at least 30-50 years of gradual changes. For very clear reasons, it cannot be anything like German reunification.

    South Korea is probably getting sick of America’s shit. The vile spectacle of Pence and co. trying to cockblock Korean unity will likely not be forgotten anytime soon.

    Japan will “nuke up” eventually regardless. People who remember the war are very old and will not be around much longer. Japanese may seem like “herbivore” asexual otaku wimps but that’s largely due to American largesse. What can’t go on forever won’t.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Reunification [of the Koreas] will have to be a very gradual process. Ideally, it will take at least 30-50 years of gradual changes. For very clear reasons, it cannot be anything like German reunification.
     
    Reunification of the Koreas is NOT in the interest of Americans, and is not really helpful to North or South Koreans themselves.

    Inevitably, "reunification" would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

    As another commenter noted, a Romanian-type solution for an independent North Korea staying in China's orbit may be the best we (and the North Koreans themselves) can realistically aim for.

    North Korea is a horrendous dictatorship, but we need to remember that its population has been ideologically pozzed for three generations. With the experience of Germany fresh in mind, South Koreans would be insane to allow a North Korean propaganda officer to become their Angela Merkel. (Koreans may be that insane, but they shouldn't be.)

    BTW while we are about restructuring far-away countries, how about helping Switzerland reunify with Austria and Germany? Should we aim for slow Germanization of Swiss institutions? Resettle French-speaking Swiss in France or Belgium?

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  67. No, Japan will Gundam up.

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  68. If only MacArthur had heeded the Chinese warnings, we wouldn’t be dealing with NK today, or at least there would be one with a fraction of the population. If you look at a map of North Korea, the narrowest point between the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan is very distinct; anyone know what that isthmus is called? I haven’t been able to find a name. At any rate, that isthmus would have made for a much more advantageous dividing line between North and South than the current 38th parallel. It would have included Pyongyang and at least 2/3 of NK’s current population. Had we managed the war better this could have been the result. The Chinese likely would not have intervened had we stopped there.

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    • Replies: @songbird
    As I understand it, the Chinese army was already mobilizing and being prepped for the move, before the US even intervened. So, it wasn't really about crossing any line. They had already decided on who they were going to back, the main question being could NK take the whole peninsula without Chinese troops or not. What the Chinese said was in effect just empty rhetoric, which was mostly just how they spoke.
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  69. @nebulafox
    >Unfortunately, I don’t have any brilliant suggestions for how to get there.

    Point to Vietnam as an example to Kim Jong Un that he can have his cake and eat it too, if on a more slow pace to accommodate the nature of Kim's regime: a modernizing economy while he retains control it, and that we'd rather have him in power than his generals, who probably believe North Korea's radical, 1930s-Japanese inspired racial ultra-nationalism more literally than he does. KJU probably does, too, but to a lesser, more realistic extent, so we're choosing a less bad evil-and a more stable one, in which we know who controls what.

    Won't resulted in a united Korea, but will result in an overall positive result for the biggest amount of people. Also, this is something that Beijing would probably be quite enthusiastic about, not just because that's what they want to try, but because it might signify that President Trump, after a year of confusion, is decisively ditching the "democracy promotion" angle of his three predecessors.

    >One possibility is that the successful South Korean state will, in the fullness of time, absorb North Korea into simply Korea, much as West Germany absorbed East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall and became Germany.

    While ethnic Korean nationalism is a very potent force, not to be underestimated-to the extent that you could call the conflict on the peninsula as a battle really more between extreme ethno-nationalists and moderate ethno-nationalists than Commies and democrats-younger generations have seen the extreme financial costs incurred by West Germany after 1989. And the two Koreas are way, way, *way* more divergent than the two Germanys. They are probably nowhere near as privately enthusiatic about reunification as they will publicly state.

    Korea is not Germany. You could have limited contact with relatives if they ended up in East Germany and you were in the West. Not so with Korea. The Wall was an absolute joke compared to the DMZ. East Germany was the most advanced place in the Soviet bloc, their economy getting sucked dry by people fleeing and reparations to the Russians, aside. North Korea...

    >Here’s a question: what would South Korea do with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs programs?

    Who is to say South Korea wouldn't develop nukes of their own if the US left?

    >If they kept them, would Japan nuke up?

    Probably, especially if President Trump decides to start filtering out our bases there. Japan has what is called "nuclear latency"-meaning they can quickly assemble nukes if they want. But the Chinese are aware of that, which is probably why they wouldn't want a nuclear armed unified Korea, even if it ultimately leans pro-Beijing due to anti-Tokyo animus and the US becoming redundant.

    The Chinese have a "Pakistan style" relationship with them rather than a straightforward client/protector relationship with them, not least thanks to the nukes, meaning that them simply hanging them out to dry isn't as easy as it sounds. They can punish them by temporarily shutting down money laundering in Macau (one of the few ways North Korea gets hard cash) much like we temporarily cut military funding when the Paks prosecuted the guy who betrayed Bin Laden, but that only goes so far. That said, for China to agree to let Pyongyang out to dry to the maximum extent, though, three things have to happen:

    1) The "who gets the nukes question" is solved, preferably without setting off a scenario where Japan inevitably sees the need to get a nuke.

    2) China does not get flooded by millions of PTSD addled refugees-and unlike American leaders, Xi is under no illusions about the sanity, or lack thereof, of open borders with a drug manufacturing basket-case.

    3) US troops don't end up bordering China. Don't think this one needs much explaining.

    Fox is correct. This is the likely scenario, IMO.

    A secret agreement between China, the US and Japan for the end state: All nuclear weapons and ICBM delivery systems will be removed from Korea, US troops will leave, and Seoul will run the country.

    Phase I – China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Phase II – NK puppet leader negotiates for 6 months with SK government, and reunification follows shortly thereafter.

    Existential ICBM threats to US and Japan will cease, US taxpayer will no longer pay for forward deployed forces, and the world will have one less hotspot.

    Trump wins, China wins, Korea wins, Japan wins. Other than the Boy Leader, who loses?

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered
     
    A lot of the Armchair Intelligence Chiefs propose this course of action. Are they aware that if China could, it probably would have young Kim murdered already?
    , @Tulip
    Baloney, China is never going to sit back and give the U.S. basing rights in their backyard.

    Maybe if there was a total diplomatic realignment with South Korea, kicking out the Americans and granting basing rights and security guarantees to China, Korean unification would be possible.

    You may say, I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
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  70. @snorlax

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.
     
    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions
     
    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.

    From business visits to Korea, I get the same impressions. Indeed among younger South Koreans 1/ sometimes goes to the extreme of a desire to reunify the two Koreas under Pyongyang.

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  71. @songbird
    If I were leader of Korea, unified or not, I'd want nukes. Kim Jong Un is acting rationally in that sense.

    Germany to me seems like a very bad example to follow, in light of current events. I'd go for a different model. Maybe, freedom of movement for ethnic Koreans, but a duel government and rock bottom taxes in the North. Pro-family policies. Low level of regulations.

    Longer term, 2050 or 2100. I see Korea and Japan having much closer ties, despite some long and hard memories.

    Germany to me seems like a very bad example to follow, in light of current events.

    I don’t see reunification as having to do much with “current events”, unless you’re talking the historical fluke of having a part-Polish, childless old bitty with the commie preacher father as leader of the conservative party and Chancellor of Germany?

    Italy, France, Britain, Sweden … did not undergo reunification and suffer from “current events”. This anti-national, anti-white disease is endemic in the West, the outgrowth of “lessons of the War”, holocaustia and colonialism propagandizing. And the Germans are propagandized worst of all, with their kinder bottle fed war guilt before they are weaned.

    My speculations about a reunified Korea would be pretty uninformed, but it’s hard to conceive of a scenario where it actually increases the chance of them waving in lots of SE Asian Muslims or worse Africans.

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    • Replies: @songbird
    Korea being a peninsula and having historically been a colony makes them a bit less likely to suffer from über-universalism. I also think Asians have a sort of natural conformism which makes them somewhat pro-social, or Confucian-thinking. Asking, is it good for the peace of society?

    But there are still certain similarities. SK is naturally softer than NK. That's what prosperity does. Super low fertility rate. Following the same model would be incredibility expensive. I can see a lot of policy wonks saying "we need more people to grow the economy."

    Anyway, basically what I meant was about perspective. Would East Germans have even wanted full reunification, if they had known what that would make them a part of? I doubt it. Still, it is quite curious how many globalists invoke the Berlin Wall. As if having one border dissolve was like throwing gasoline on their one-world ambitions.
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  72. @anony-mouse
    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as 'proof' that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    You haven’t been to Korea, have you?

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  73. OT: This is hilarious if true: Cuba Claims Justin Trudeau Is Fidel Castro’s Son.

    http://yournewswire.com/justin-trudeau-fidel-castro-son/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    I do think Junior looks more like Fidel than Pierre.

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  74. @The Anti-Gnostic
    They had 9 warheads I believe. They dismantled them before ceding power to the country's democratic majority.

    6 Hiroshima style uranium guns I believe, which they handed over to Uncle Sam.

    Now White South Africans live in shanty towns.

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  75. Unless China/US/Japan force a unified Korea to relinquish its nukes, it’s inconceivable to me that they would do so voluntarily. We all know about North Korea cheating on the Agreed Framework. But South Korea did so as well — in 2000, they performed secret uranium enrichment tests, a fact that came out a few years later and prompted an IAEA investigation. It’s hard to be certain without actual tests, but I think nuclear weapons are well within South Korea’s technical capabilities. South Korea is also actively developing ballistic missiles/space launch vehicles, although the amount of investment doesn’t suggest that it’s a major focus.

    That said, if North Korea hasn’t prompted Japan to declare as a nuclear power, I don’t see why Japan would declare in response to South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite Moon’s election, South Korea is not notably more insane than the North at the moment. It’s not hard to imagine domestic political developments in Korea that might change that calculus — nationalist propaganda is all over the place in Seoul, and widespread xenophobia and insecurity combined with an aggrieved sense of being wronged by history are just the noxious ingredients to make a fine fascist stew — but those developments haven’t taken place yet.

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  76. @The Only Catholic Unionist
    The good news for unification is that the North had been the traditional industrial areas, so presumably easier to get up to Western standards rapidly (the Rhinelands (in the West) were that in Germany which made it harder to bring the East up to speed after reunification....

    The hard part is getting rid of the ruling family. Maybe provisional amnesty for all living members and exile to one of their luxury "Six Star" (per Dennis Rodman) islands with the strict proviso that any of them leaving for any reason lose amesty and face summary death for their crimes, and they might step down quietly ... ?

    provisional amnesty for all living members and exile to one of their luxury “Six Star” (per Dennis Rodman) islands with the strict proviso that any of them leaving for any reason lose amesty and face summary death for their crimes, and they might step down quietly … ?

    What reason would they have to trust the US (or anyone else) promising that?

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    • Replies: @The Only Catholic Unionist
    Well, with the jug-eared non-entity no longer around, he faces 1)death from his own people, 2)death shooting it out with the South/US/everyone else, or 3)the possibility of living as he has grown accustomed. There may be a problem with still-pissed Koreans trying to Mussolini or Ceaușescu him, but with a skosh more daylight between DPRK and the PRC, I don't think he's going to get a better deal...
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  77. @Charles Pewitt
    Japan and Germany must each get a nuclear deterrent. The sooner they do, the sooner the American Empire can leave their territory and restore the sovereignty of Germany and Japan. World War II must come to an end someday.

    The Germans and the Japanese could probably have a credible nuclear deterrent in ten minutes or a few months. I presume the Deep State of both Germany and Japan have contingency plans to get nukes and the means to deliver them.

    The European Union will be obliterated and the euro currency will be vaporized when the Germans get their sovereignty back by inviting the American Empire to leave German soil and when the Germans get a nuclear deterrent. Mass deportations of Merkel's invasionary army of non-Europeans can then begin.

    Alternative for Deutschland will get stronger as the baby boomer Germans get weaker and more deranged. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton were the peak of baby boomer derangement, those types of baby boomers will be removed from power and their assets will be liquidated.

    I can see a time in the not too distant future when Hillary Clinton and Angela Merkel will be forced to live in deportation centers with the non-Europeans that they helped to flood into the USA and Germany. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton will be sent into exile to Third World areas such as Haiti or the Congo. They won't be allowed to go into exile in Monaco.

    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.

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    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt

    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.

     

    Here's some more stuff! You were gobsmacked and I didn't even call for a 20 percent federal funds rate, wild stuff!

    Real estate, bonds and stocks are going to implode and stay imploded for decades. Young people will benefit, people born before 1965 will be wiped out. It must be done.

    The American Empire will soon leave Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East. Young people in the United States will have to take measures to financially liquidate people born before 1965.

    Monetary policy has been used by the baby boomer generation to viciously attack Americans born after 1965. Immigration policy has been weaponized to pauperize many Americans born after 1965.

    Monetary policy is now inter-generational violence. Mass immigration is an attack on future generations. Debt and demography are the whole ballgame.

    Got to love the oafs playing at American Empire when the whole thing is about to implode.

    The Nasdaq bubble of 2000 was about 15 trillion in vaporized "wealth." The housing bubble was about 20 trillion in vaporized "wealth." This current asset bubble is going to vaporize 30 or 40 trillion in "wealth." After this bubble implodes, the young people in European Christian nations can do what they must to restore their civilization. Think debt jubilees and mass deportations.

    What kind of people own Comcast and the New York Times and the rest of the anti-White corporate media? They'll be the first ones financially liquidated and deported.
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  78. I think everyone there can enjoy a refangled co-prosperity sphere! :-D

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  79. @reiner Tor

    provisional amnesty for all living members and exile to one of their luxury “Six Star” (per Dennis Rodman) islands with the strict proviso that any of them leaving for any reason lose amesty and face summary death for their crimes, and they might step down quietly … ?
     
    What reason would they have to trust the US (or anyone else) promising that?

    Well, with the jug-eared non-entity no longer around, he faces 1)death from his own people, 2)death shooting it out with the South/US/everyone else, or 3)the possibility of living as he has grown accustomed. There may be a problem with still-pissed Koreans trying to Mussolini or Ceaușescu him, but with a skosh more daylight between DPRK and the PRC, I don’t think he’s going to get a better deal…

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Sure, he won’t get a better deal, but it’s a very bad deal. For one, there’s no guarantee that they won’t renege on it. Then there’s the problem that he’s an ambitious young man. If he had been interested in cutting a deal and just living out the rest of his life in luxury, he wouldn’t have executed his uncle, instead he’d have let him act as a regent.

    You also don’t consider that his estimation of future success might be more optimistic than what you assume. There is certainly the possibility of his staying in power until dying of old age. It’s even possible (or at least it could appear possible to him) to re-unite Korea under his own rule.

    I just don’t think such a deal is possible.
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  80. @snorlax

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.
     
    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions
     
    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.

    I’m no expert on Korea, but most commentary strikes me as naive and uninformed. South Koreans have their interests, the North’s regime has theirs, and it doesn’t seem that very many US opinionators make much effort to understand either, in any depth.

    There’s a good interview with Western professor P.R. Myers of Dongseo University at — of all places! — Slate.com. Isaac Chotiner, Sympathy for North Korea: Why South Koreans might just be willing to align with Kim Jong-un. The obligatory Trump-hatred is surprisingly muted.

    The North is arming to compel the peaceful withdrawal of U.S. troops from the peninsula, in the belief that the South could then be cajoled or intimidated into submission. The current South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has repeatedly made clear that he opposes the use of military force against North Korea no matter what happens. He and his camp support the idea of a North-South confederation. Pyongyang has always seen confederation as a brief transition to a takeover of the South, while Seoul sees it as a symbolic union that will enable it to postpone real unification indefinitely. America is thus in the absurd and very dangerous position of a bodyguard trying to protect someone who is promising a stalker a sort of pro forma marriage.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The current South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has repeatedly made clear that he opposes the use of military force against North Korea no matter what happens.
     
    How many senior politicians, government officials, industrial leaders etc. in South Korea are Nork agents or have Nork agents in their entourage? How many Gunter Guillaumes are in place?

    The CIA learned a great deal about East German subversion of West Germany when they acquired Stasi archives, but most of the information remains top secret, and many Stasi agents including Angela Merkel remain in positions of great influence.

    Remember that Western HUMINT capabilities in Korea are far weaker than they were in Germany due to language, racial and strategic reasons.

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  81. @Sagamore Sam
    Fox is correct. This is the likely scenario, IMO.

    A secret agreement between China, the US and Japan for the end state: All nuclear weapons and ICBM delivery systems will be removed from Korea, US troops will leave, and Seoul will run the country.

    Phase I - China's agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Phase II - NK puppet leader negotiates for 6 months with SK government, and reunification follows shortly thereafter.

    Existential ICBM threats to US and Japan will cease, US taxpayer will no longer pay for forward deployed forces, and the world will have one less hotspot.

    Trump wins, China wins, Korea wins, Japan wins. Other than the Boy Leader, who loses?

    China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered

    A lot of the Armchair Intelligence Chiefs propose this course of action. Are they aware that if China could, it probably would have young Kim murdered already?

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    • Replies: @CK
    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?
    Because as has been proven so often: No man, no problem. Although Stalin is still dead.
    But
    we would have to also assume that the North Korean people dislike the Kim family of which no evidence is presented. ( Defectors, Quislings and McCains are not evidence of a widespread distaste for a leader )
    , @nebulafox
    >Phase I – China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Kim removed this possibility in 2012 by purging anybody who was deemed to subservient to Beijing, including his own uncle. This also had the doubly important effect of establishing-quite bluntly-his authority in a hyper-Confucian culture where men his age typically don't reign. Chang Song Taek probably thought he could be a sort of regent figure. Kim wasn't having that.

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  82. Among developed nations, Japan is the most conservative and nationalistic by far. The Koreans, and even the Chinese, are more susceptible to globalism. Even with 70 years as an American protectorate, the Japanese remain largely unscathed from Americanization. Those centuries as a completely isolated island nation has had an enduring effect on their national character.

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    • Replies: @Anonym
    Among developed nations, Japan is the most conservative and nationalistic by far. The Koreans, and even the Chinese, are more susceptible to globalism. Even with 70 years as an American

    By what objective measure are the Japanese less nationalistic than the Chinese? Maybe conservative in non-immigration views, but not nationalistic AFAICS.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-vs-japan/
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  83. @reiner Tor

    China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered
     
    A lot of the Armchair Intelligence Chiefs propose this course of action. Are they aware that if China could, it probably would have young Kim murdered already?

    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?
    Because as has been proven so often: No man, no problem. Although Stalin is still dead.
    But
    we would have to also assume that the North Korean people dislike the Kim family of which no evidence is presented. ( Defectors, Quislings and McCains are not evidence of a widespread distaste for a leader )

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?
     
    My point was that it's unlikely.
    , @J.Ross
    Is there some upcoming Nork state visit to a poorly defended compound in suburban Mexico City I am not aware of? If your man behaves anything like Ramon Mercader did around the Nork security services then I think you should pick a different historical model, say, Czolgosz.
    A chance to recommend two excellent related things: the stunningly good Assassination of Trotsky starring Richard Burton, Alain Delon, and Romy Schneider, and the book The Mind of an Assassin by Isaac Don Levine. I had a copy of that for fifty cents and gave it away; I see on Amazon they want twenty-five dollars for it.
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  84. @Hapalong Cassidy
    If only MacArthur had heeded the Chinese warnings, we wouldn’t be dealing with NK today, or at least there would be one with a fraction of the population. If you look at a map of North Korea, the narrowest point between the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan is very distinct; anyone know what that isthmus is called? I haven’t been able to find a name. At any rate, that isthmus would have made for a much more advantageous dividing line between North and South than the current 38th parallel. It would have included Pyongyang and at least 2/3 of NK’s current population. Had we managed the war better this could have been the result. The Chinese likely would not have intervened had we stopped there.

    As I understand it, the Chinese army was already mobilizing and being prepped for the move, before the US even intervened. So, it wasn’t really about crossing any line. They had already decided on who they were going to back, the main question being could NK take the whole peninsula without Chinese troops or not. What the Chinese said was in effect just empty rhetoric, which was mostly just how they spoke.

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    • Agree: Abe
    • Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy
    Perhaps you are right about the Chinese, but remember they were careful to explain their actions as “volunteers” fighting to secure China’s border rather than China’s government-backed Army fighting along side NK against the US (which it what it was). Obviously MacArthur and the US weren’t buying it, but that was more for the consumption of Russia and the UN. The point being China might not have risked it if the US had halted farther away from their border. MacArthur gets a lot of flack for wanting to nuke China in response, which led to his firing, but the thing was, he was right in principal. China had directly attacked us and it was within our right to respond with maximum force.
    , @Autochthon
    Chinese say all kinds of shit; whatever the other fellow wants to hear.

    But they do just as they please notwithstanding any words or even promises. Then if anyone points.oit the inconsistency, they are indignant at the lack of decorum.
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  85. Capitalist South Korea makes money.

    Communist-Nationalist North Korean makes fanatical Koreans.

    Why couldn’t the North eventually absorb the South?

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  86. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    If North and South reunite, they will attack the japanese immediately. In fact, thats the best scenario for the North to win the strategy game- Nuke a japanese city and watch the the South move towards their team. You can’t overestimate the hate Koreans have for japanese, the japanese occupation was really awful.

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  87. I just had the pleasure of listening to the most breathtakingly dishonest piece of “journalism” from NPR. They had some limey on from The Atlantic and the two were comparing notes on how they were throwing journalism under the bus in the name of forcing the illusion of equal outcomes (shoehorning more stories about and sourced from women, for its own sake). The limey actually said outright that he thinks journalism isn’t about reporting on reality, but on actuating it with propaganda (he didn’t use that word, obviously, but that’s what he was describing).

    What do you call it when behavior moves from corruption to open agenda?

    Hell, I’m not even sure it was dishonest. They were very open about not giving a shit about journalism, substituting propaganda (that they had redefined as “journalism”) in it’s stead.

    I gotta find a transcript of this.

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    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    I was just watching a documentary on BBC about railways in the Great War, which concentrated on how poorly women were treated then, and pointed out that the women who worked as porters, cleaners etc weren't paid as much for the job as the men they replaced had been. Those former porters and cleaners were walking into machine gun fire or drowning in mud at the time, at the Western Front or Gallipoli, but apparently theirs was the good deal!

    It never stops. I gave up watching after ten minutes of agitprop.

    , @Anonym
    I just had the pleasure of listening to the most breathtakingly dishonest piece of “journalism” from NPR. They had some limey on from The Atlantic and the two were comparing notes on how they were throwing journalism under the bus in the name of forcing the illusion of equal outcomes (shoehorning more stories about and sourced from women, for its own sake). The limey actually said outright that he thinks journalism isn’t about reporting on reality, but on actuating it with propaganda (he didn’t use that word, obviously, but that’s what he was describing).

    It seems to me that this is honesty about their dishonesty - this is what the likes of npr have been doing for a long time, so nice to see them admit it.
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  88. @AnotherDad

    Germany to me seems like a very bad example to follow, in light of current events.
     
    I don't see reunification as having to do much with "current events", unless you're talking the historical fluke of having a part-Polish, childless old bitty with the commie preacher father as leader of the conservative party and Chancellor of Germany?

    Italy, France, Britain, Sweden ... did not undergo reunification and suffer from "current events". This anti-national, anti-white disease is endemic in the West, the outgrowth of "lessons of the War", holocaustia and colonialism propagandizing. And the Germans are propagandized worst of all, with their kinder bottle fed war guilt before they are weaned.

    My speculations about a reunified Korea would be pretty uninformed, but it's hard to conceive of a scenario where it actually increases the chance of them waving in lots of SE Asian Muslims or worse Africans.

    Korea being a peninsula and having historically been a colony makes them a bit less likely to suffer from über-universalism. I also think Asians have a sort of natural conformism which makes them somewhat pro-social, or Confucian-thinking. Asking, is it good for the peace of society?

    But there are still certain similarities. SK is naturally softer than NK. That’s what prosperity does. Super low fertility rate. Following the same model would be incredibility expensive. I can see a lot of policy wonks saying “we need more people to grow the economy.”

    Anyway, basically what I meant was about perspective. Would East Germans have even wanted full reunification, if they had known what that would make them a part of? I doubt it. Still, it is quite curious how many globalists invoke the Berlin Wall. As if having one border dissolve was like throwing gasoline on their one-world ambitions.

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  89. If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

    If the Koreans weren’t especially nationalistic

    1. There would be no Korea. Only more China.

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    • Replies: @J. Dart
    I have my doubts. If the Koreans were especially nationalistic, they would defend all their borders not just the northern one, and they would defend their public sphere.

    Instead they let a million foreigners into their country in a decade, among then hundreds of thousands of Chinese who are an obvious threat to independence, plus tens of thousands of Muslims who have consummately demonstrated their lack of aptitude at modern civilization-building in their homelands
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Korea
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreigners_in_Korea#Statistics

    And their cinemas show blatant propaganda encouraging impressionable young women to mate with those Muslim migrants while portraying local men as jobless losers and abusive bosses
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/art/2009/06/141_47069.html

    South Korea's not as far gone as Western Europe, but judging from what I can see ten thousand miles away, they're on the same trajectory and their elites are 110% committed to catching up.

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  90. @CK
    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?
    Because as has been proven so often: No man, no problem. Although Stalin is still dead.
    But
    we would have to also assume that the North Korean people dislike the Kim family of which no evidence is presented. ( Defectors, Quislings and McCains are not evidence of a widespread distaste for a leader )

    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?

    My point was that it’s unlikely.

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  91. Isn’t South Korea Deeply in Debt?

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  92. If South Korea gets their hands on N. Korea’s nuclear program, they will keep it going. Boromir was right, no one gives away a ring of power.

    If Japan doesn’t develop nukes, they are crazy irrespective of Korea. They have a nuclear armed China with a billion citizens next door, and Japan is too busy working and watching hentai to make babies enough to put together a decent security defense force.

    Sure, they have security commitments from the United States, with the best-equipped intersectional cry-babies in the history of the world, but when has the U.S. won a war against a country that was even remotely evenly matched? Say, 1945 (and only because the Russians softened ‘em up). . . and that was way before the era of social engineering for equality over competence and cohesion.

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    • Replies: @KM32
    when has the U.S. won a war against a country that was even remotely evenly matched? Say, 1945 (and only because the Russians softened ‘em up). . .

    Don't forget 1865.

    I wouldn't count on the U.S. to roll over. When we've faced a real power, we've shown in Atlanta and Dresden and Hiroshima that we'll use some real scorched earth tactics. We fight down to our competition.
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  93. not to mention the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans).

    1. Projection: given the way Japs treated their prisoners, it’s not at all surprising that they didn’t want to be taken prisoner; they assumed everyone else treated prisoners the way they treated theirs.

    2. Reciprocity: given the way Japs treated their prisoners, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if we weren’t particularly interested in coddling Jap prisoners.

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind. Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.

    So, a Korean snagged a rich black celeb, a couple of Korean gals work in the high-end ho biz, and Michelle Rhee. Got any actual evidence?

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    • Replies: @snorlax
    And 3) cultural mores: they expected that if captured, on their return they’d be court-martialed or at least socially ostracized for cowardice.

    It was a similar situation to the Eastern Front, where only a tiny percentage on either side survived the war as POWs. Soviet captives could escape near-certain death in the camps by agreeing to fight for the Germans, but Stalin had all the collaborators executed. Even the ones who stayed loyal were given long gulag sentences as cowards. In one of the most shameful (yet unknown) episodes of our history, we sent all the Soviet POWs we “liberated” back to Stalin, knowing full well what their fate would be.
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  94. @Graham
    "the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans)"

    I've been reading two memoirs of the war against the Japanese by British writers who fought in Burma: Quartered Safe Out Here by George Macdonald Fraser, author of the Flashman novels (the title is ironic: he wasn't safe); and The Road Beyond Mandalay by John Masters, author of many novels about British India and other subjects, whom I wholeheartedly recommend. Both these men note the lack of (unwounded) prisoners and state the simple reason for it, which was the Japanese habit of fighting to the death. Masters says that in his opinion most Japanese soldiers, had they been British or American, would have been eligible for the Victoria Cross or Congressional Medal of Honor.

    Right, and after US soldiers found the mutilated remains of their buddies, there were less than eager to take Japanese prisoners alive.

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  95. @reiner Tor
    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.

    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.

    Here’s some more stuff! You were gobsmacked and I didn’t even call for a 20 percent federal funds rate, wild stuff!

    Real estate, bonds and stocks are going to implode and stay imploded for decades. Young people will benefit, people born before 1965 will be wiped out. It must be done.

    The American Empire will soon leave Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East. Young people in the United States will have to take measures to financially liquidate people born before 1965.

    Monetary policy has been used by the baby boomer generation to viciously attack Americans born after 1965. Immigration policy has been weaponized to pauperize many Americans born after 1965.

    Monetary policy is now inter-generational violence. Mass immigration is an attack on future generations. Debt and demography are the whole ballgame.

    Got to love the oafs playing at American Empire when the whole thing is about to implode.

    The Nasdaq bubble of 2000 was about 15 trillion in vaporized “wealth.” The housing bubble was about 20 trillion in vaporized “wealth.” This current asset bubble is going to vaporize 30 or 40 trillion in “wealth.” After this bubble implodes, the young people in European Christian nations can do what they must to restore their civilization. Think debt jubilees and mass deportations.

    What kind of people own Comcast and the New York Times and the rest of the anti-White corporate media? They’ll be the first ones financially liquidated and deported.

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    • Replies: @anonymous
    reiner Tor doesn't want his children to have to learn Russian.
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  96. OT: DJT tells would-be trannies to take a, er, hike to the proper bathroom.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/dominicholden/edu-dept-trans-student-bathrooms

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  97. @The Only Catholic Unionist
    Well, with the jug-eared non-entity no longer around, he faces 1)death from his own people, 2)death shooting it out with the South/US/everyone else, or 3)the possibility of living as he has grown accustomed. There may be a problem with still-pissed Koreans trying to Mussolini or Ceaușescu him, but with a skosh more daylight between DPRK and the PRC, I don't think he's going to get a better deal...

    Sure, he won’t get a better deal, but it’s a very bad deal. For one, there’s no guarantee that they won’t renege on it. Then there’s the problem that he’s an ambitious young man. If he had been interested in cutting a deal and just living out the rest of his life in luxury, he wouldn’t have executed his uncle, instead he’d have let him act as a regent.

    You also don’t consider that his estimation of future success might be more optimistic than what you assume. There is certainly the possibility of his staying in power until dying of old age. It’s even possible (or at least it could appear possible to him) to re-unite Korea under his own rule.

    I just don’t think such a deal is possible.

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  98. @Anonymous
    I don't really exactly know the facts here, but I'm under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the "democratic, multiracial" SA government gave this up. That's hopeful, in a way, if true.

    White South African government definitely had nukes. They (the white government, not the black) gave up the Nukes before handing over power to the Black government. Read the book and articles by Ilana Mercer if you find anything hopeful about the Black-run South Africa.

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    • Replies: @travell lyte
    Another country that doesn't have nukes alledgedly assisted with SA's program.
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  99. @Steve Sailer
    Maybe Seoul and Pyongyang will go the Beijing and Taipei route? Two separate states but lots of travel back and forth. It looks like there are ten flights a day from Taipei to Beijing, even without a solution of the political situation.

    Ever been to Taipei, Steve? I have a visit to Taipei 101 on my bucket list. It opened in 2004, I wondered if Allah would take a crack at it with a direct flight someday. Asia doesn’t seem to stir such animus with Allah. Perhaps Allah and the various Deities of the Orient are buddies..

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  100. Korea will never be united unless the North Korean regime falls. The North Korean regime will never give up power and control over North Korea. I don’t see South Korea going anywhere, either, backed and propped up by the United States, even if North Korea launched an all out attack.

    Maybe if the regime were on the way out, KJI could work out a transfer to Africa and some international bank accounts, in exchange for turning over the reins to South Korea, but that is a fantasy. North Korea isn’t going anywhere, at best, there will be a power struggle and a turn over of leadership.

    You may say I’m dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

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  101. @snorlax

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.
     
    This is indeed the case; about 50% of the country (+/-25% at any given time, due to Asian conformity — currently more towards the plus) is convinced, to the point of deranged, swivel-eyed hysteria, that America (and Japan) is their #1 enemy and the peaceful Norks (and Chinese) are their friends.

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions
     
    They do this as well.

    Seriously, go visit reddit.com/r/korea on any given day and read the comments.

    seriously, go visit reddit

    No.

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  102. @Sagamore Sam
    Fox is correct. This is the likely scenario, IMO.

    A secret agreement between China, the US and Japan for the end state: All nuclear weapons and ICBM delivery systems will be removed from Korea, US troops will leave, and Seoul will run the country.

    Phase I - China's agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Phase II - NK puppet leader negotiates for 6 months with SK government, and reunification follows shortly thereafter.

    Existential ICBM threats to US and Japan will cease, US taxpayer will no longer pay for forward deployed forces, and the world will have one less hotspot.

    Trump wins, China wins, Korea wins, Japan wins. Other than the Boy Leader, who loses?

    Baloney, China is never going to sit back and give the U.S. basing rights in their backyard.

    Maybe if there was a total diplomatic realignment with South Korea, kicking out the Americans and granting basing rights and security guarantees to China, Korean unification would be possible.

    You may say, I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

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  103. @Graham
    "the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans)"

    I've been reading two memoirs of the war against the Japanese by British writers who fought in Burma: Quartered Safe Out Here by George Macdonald Fraser, author of the Flashman novels (the title is ironic: he wasn't safe); and The Road Beyond Mandalay by John Masters, author of many novels about British India and other subjects, whom I wholeheartedly recommend. Both these men note the lack of (unwounded) prisoners and state the simple reason for it, which was the Japanese habit of fighting to the death. Masters says that in his opinion most Japanese soldiers, had they been British or American, would have been eligible for the Victoria Cross or Congressional Medal of Honor.

    The Japanese didn’t fight to the death because they were especially brave, they fought to the death because their government intentionally gave them no choice in the matter. The Japanese government knew, even if not quite to the exact extent in reality, their material and technological disadvantage vis-à-vis the allies and thus were determined to bridge this gap with “fighting spirit”. How do you make men fight harder beyond rational limits of self preservation? By intentionally making surrender an impossible option. The brutality of the Japanese during WW2 was not a necessity born by material circumstance, but rather a deliberate strategic choice by their high command to make certain Japanese soldiers did not desert/surrender en masse. The Japanese soldiers knew full well the brutality they were inflicting on their enemies and that they could expect reciprocity in kind. They kept fighting not out purely of courage, but because they feared being brutalized in turn.

    You can see the logic of this kind of thinking in action in Germany. On the eastern front; No quarter asked, none given. However, on the Western front, German soldiers weren’t so determined to make suicidal last stands knowing that German POW’s in British/American hands had something like 98% survival rates and were being better fed than the Wehrmacht.

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  104. OFF TOPIC

    Treasonous geezer rat Mitch McConnell will be attacking the future of the United States today by pushing for more mass immigration and more illegal immigration. McConnell stood by and did nothing in 2013 when many of his GOP US Senate buddies voted for more mass immigration and amnesty for illegal aliens. McConnell will be up to no damn good again because McConnell is a filthy politician whore for the GOP Cheap Labor Faction.

    McConnell Is An Untrustworthy Politician Rat On Immigration

    Harry Reid was Majority Leader in the US Senate in 2013 when the Rubio/Obama Illegal Alien Amnesty — Mass Immigration Surge bill(S 744) passed with the help of at least a dozen treasonous rat Republican Senator scumbags.

    Boehner had to kill that 2013 bill(S 744) in the US House in order to prevent a bloody civil war in the Republican Party. Paul Ryan is now saying he won’t bring up any bill that doesn’t have the support of Trump. Trump must understand that any amnesty for any illegal alien invaders will destroy his presidency. No deals that stab the American people in the back!

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS NOW!

    PUT THE INTERESTS OF AMERICANS FIRST

    DO NOT REWARD ARROGANT ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADER FOREIGNERS!

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  105. Seems obvious to me. In exchange for international subsidies required to reinvest in historical Gogoryeo (the North), the unified Korea will *sell* the North’s armaments.

    The nuclear material itself could be repurposed for electrical power plants.

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  106. @Charles Pewitt

    What are you smoking? Must be good stuff.

     

    Here's some more stuff! You were gobsmacked and I didn't even call for a 20 percent federal funds rate, wild stuff!

    Real estate, bonds and stocks are going to implode and stay imploded for decades. Young people will benefit, people born before 1965 will be wiped out. It must be done.

    The American Empire will soon leave Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East. Young people in the United States will have to take measures to financially liquidate people born before 1965.

    Monetary policy has been used by the baby boomer generation to viciously attack Americans born after 1965. Immigration policy has been weaponized to pauperize many Americans born after 1965.

    Monetary policy is now inter-generational violence. Mass immigration is an attack on future generations. Debt and demography are the whole ballgame.

    Got to love the oafs playing at American Empire when the whole thing is about to implode.

    The Nasdaq bubble of 2000 was about 15 trillion in vaporized "wealth." The housing bubble was about 20 trillion in vaporized "wealth." This current asset bubble is going to vaporize 30 or 40 trillion in "wealth." After this bubble implodes, the young people in European Christian nations can do what they must to restore their civilization. Think debt jubilees and mass deportations.

    What kind of people own Comcast and the New York Times and the rest of the anti-White corporate media? They'll be the first ones financially liquidated and deported.

    reiner Tor doesn’t want his children to have to learn Russian.

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  107. @bb.
    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn't agree that it was necessarily 'irresponsible'. I might be wrong, but aren't the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there? Aren't the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet? I can imagine that could be the cornerstone of any future talks between them - ''hey, we might not see eye to eye on many thing but at least we agree on the important stuff, like we hate everyone else equally - especially the goddamn japs'' - as such, I can imagine keeping the nukes to be a possible (suitable) concession by the Souths, with a promises to the international community to deal with them...eventually. Eventually can take a long time.

    I think it ultimately comes down to ambition - and I don't know what their ambitions are, but they have all the prerequisites to become a bona fide world power. With the Souths superior tech they could leapfrog to high end ICBMs in short time - all the hardware, technical infrastructure and test sites are already in place in the North - just needs upgrades. Russia could be a potential ally in this regard - they could hedge their position against China in the long run with an rich and armed (swiss like) neighbor.

    Aren’t the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet?

    No. Not even for a developed country. Maybe Japan could aim for that title.

    And they don’t really have ambitions as such. Like much of the world, they’re suffering from a lack of purpose and meaning.

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  108. @Chrisnonymous
    Just watched Switzerland-vs-Japan. Switzerland again, 3-1. Not a great game with several goals that occurred by accident. The Japanese really hustled at the end after pulling their goalie--it's the national character.

    The thing that really struck me in this game was how much more advantage it seemed to be to pull a goalie over having a power play. Something about density of players on the ice?

    Chris, last week the Buffalo Sabres, in a game against Anaheim IIRC, had a power play in the final seconds, so they pulled their goalie. So Buffalo now has six skaters against the Ducks four skaters and their goalie. Problem is there are too many players in one zone to make good passes.

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  109. Aren’t we rapidly approaching the point where South Korea can simply buy North Korea?

    I mean, write a check for it and be done with the whole thing.

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  110. @songbird
    As I understand it, the Chinese army was already mobilizing and being prepped for the move, before the US even intervened. So, it wasn't really about crossing any line. They had already decided on who they were going to back, the main question being could NK take the whole peninsula without Chinese troops or not. What the Chinese said was in effect just empty rhetoric, which was mostly just how they spoke.

    Perhaps you are right about the Chinese, but remember they were careful to explain their actions as “volunteers” fighting to secure China’s border rather than China’s government-backed Army fighting along side NK against the US (which it what it was). Obviously MacArthur and the US weren’t buying it, but that was more for the consumption of Russia and the UN. The point being China might not have risked it if the US had halted farther away from their border. MacArthur gets a lot of flack for wanting to nuke China in response, which led to his firing, but the thing was, he was right in principal. China had directly attacked us and it was within our right to respond with maximum force.

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  111. @Bill P
    Koreans and Chinese are pretty different, so I doubt it. Chinese are irrepressible wheeler-dealers, so the back and forth between China and Taiwan would take a great deal of effort to suppress.

    There is actually a lot of contact between North and South Koreans, but not in the Korean peninsula. There are two or three million Koreans in China, including hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees. As far as I could tell, they have found common ground in Christianity, which is the dominant religion among Koreans living in China. In China, Christianity is practiced mostly underground by Koreans, and has become something of a distinguishing ethnic trait that helps maintain Korean identity in the midst of a dominant Han majority.

    I used to live in a largely Korean neighborhood in Beijing, where I came across a number of North Koreans employed as wait staff in local restaurants, etc. The North Koreans who were a couple years younger than I was at the time were severely stunted. When I was seated at a table I could look the North Korean waitresses eye to eye. I also heard rumors that a number of them were working as prostitutes nearby, and that there had been summary deportation raids at one apartment block or another from time to time. My neighborhood was so Korean that most times when I got wrong number calls I'd hear "yabaseo" instead of "wei" due to the locality code on my phone number. Suffice it to say that there are lots of Koreans in China.

    So my guess is that whatever sort of rapprochement happens, it will occur mainly in China. Given the intercourse between North and South Koreans in the PRC, there's got to be a lot of stuff diffusing back into North Korea from China. I don't really know, but I'd guess that Christianity is a big part of it. Partly because of the widespread Christianization of the Koreans in China, but also because Christianity is the kind of religion that can sustain people in the brutal conditions of North Korea. So, as strange as it may sound to a lot of Westerners, a spiritual reunification of the Korean people may already be underway, under the auspices of a religion originally introduced by foreign missionaries and cultivated in the atheist People's Republic of China.

    That is interesting. Thank you.

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  112. @Svigor
    I just had the pleasure of listening to the most breathtakingly dishonest piece of "journalism" from NPR. They had some limey on from The Atlantic and the two were comparing notes on how they were throwing journalism under the bus in the name of forcing the illusion of equal outcomes (shoehorning more stories about and sourced from women, for its own sake). The limey actually said outright that he thinks journalism isn't about reporting on reality, but on actuating it with propaganda (he didn't use that word, obviously, but that's what he was describing).

    What do you call it when behavior moves from corruption to open agenda?

    Hell, I'm not even sure it was dishonest. They were very open about not giving a shit about journalism, substituting propaganda (that they had redefined as "journalism") in it's stead.

    I gotta find a transcript of this.

    I was just watching a documentary on BBC about railways in the Great War, which concentrated on how poorly women were treated then, and pointed out that the women who worked as porters, cleaners etc weren’t paid as much for the job as the men they replaced had been. Those former porters and cleaners were walking into machine gun fire or drowning in mud at the time, at the Western Front or Gallipoli, but apparently theirs was the good deal!

    It never stops. I gave up watching after ten minutes of agitprop.

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  113. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Korean nationalism isn’t real. It’s a crutch for butt-hurt feelings of inferiority. Because of the obsessive focus on status-ism, Koreans lack appreciation for humanism. Gain a bit of status, they put on airs. And because of a toxic kind of familism, the question is “Is it good for my kids?” They will do anything to favor the kids. They are like Sicilians in this way. So, there was Nut Rage in South Korea and the Kim clan in the North. Spoiled brats raised by parents who put kids uber alles.
    Look at fatso Kim in a nation of starving people. He’s not just chubby but fatty fat.

    It’s easy to control Koreans if you understand the psychology. Their nationalism is just a defense mechanism. It’s not real pride. In contrast, Jews, even under Roman rule, had immense pride as Jews. In contrast, Koreans prop up nationalism when they feel rejected or snubbed by the world. And they tend to exaggerate their national greatness. NK propaganda would have people believe that people around the world are inspired by teachings of Kim. A total joke. And SK will exaggerate achievements of Korean history while denying the key role Japan played in modernization of Korea.

    Because Korean nationalism is a bogus crutch, there is an easy way to make Koreans betray their nation and people for something else. Just flatter them. Tell them they are so ‘cool’ and ‘advanced’ and an important partner in UN and with US, and their defenses melt. Gee, they’ve been allowed into the Big Boy’s Club. All of a sudden, they are loyal slobbering dogs. Ian Buruma in God’s Dust was right about Korean butt-hurt character. It’s due to lack of true nationalism and true humanism. Having played role of little dog to big dog China, status-ism and petty kind of familism trump all. If you massage but hurt-butt of Koreans, they are babies full of smiles.

    If Koreans had a humanist culture, they would value their culture/history simply because it’s a story of people. And that should be enough. But status-madness makes for obsession to be accepted and approved by bigger powers. Koreans feel they have no value unless recognized by the world. And if not recognized, they must inflate and exaggerate their own self-importance. Or, if envious of Japan, they’ll say everything Japanese originated in Korea.

    It’s like Korean-Americans turning pro-Diversity the minute they get in because they are now part of the Winners Club. Also, Korean familism is not like good hearty family values. Rather, it’s petty obsession to make one’s own kid rise higher so that one can show off to other families. When Americans hear that kids of other families have done well, they feel generous of heart, and this is the good side of American character. When Koreans hear that other kids have done better than their own kids, they just feel resentment.

    One good thing about Japanese colonization and the hellish war was it leveled old Korean hierarchies. Rich became poor, and class distinctions vanished for many, and everyone was in the same boat. This was the humanist moment, as with Japan after WWII. Kurosawa’s films are morally informed by this period. Already by BAD SLEEP WELL and HIGH AND LOW, the old hierarchy is back. In HIGH AND LOW, the rich man has to struggle to see his chauffeur’s son as member of the same community and nation. SEVEN SAMURAI are about masterless samurai learning to serve the people than follow the path of status and vanity. (Mao, he took this logic too far. Sending professors to clean pigpens maybe wasn’t the best use of mental capital in backward China.)

    Now, economic development is good, and who the hell wants universal poverty? But in East Asia where hierarchy has been so toxic, the rise of the new class of rich led to another round of snobbery. The whole thing about dirty-dangerous-demeaning job began in Japan and spread to Korea and other richer Asian nations. Modern Japan was made by people working in factories and with their hands, but so many Japanese now see those jobs as lowly. Japanese will not have kids unless they can be sure of sending their kids to best schools. Koreans and Taiwanese are the same way. They are ashamed to have kids who do ‘dirty’ jobs. So, increasing they rely on foreigners. Once foreigners become associated with ‘dirty’ jobs, the natives want those jobs even less. So, both Japan and SK have high suicide rates. Better death than ‘dirty job’ associated with lowly foreigners. SK is worse off than Japan because SK elites are educated in US, which means they suck up all the PC. So, on the one hand, SK depends on more foreign labor because they see manual jobs as too lowly for Koreans. Immigration is premised on Koreans being too good for those jobs. But at the same time, the PC-ized Kors attack Koreans for not accepting these foreigners as fellow Kors. What a contradiction. “We need foreigners because we Kors are too good for dirty jobs. But shame on us for not treating foreigners as our equals.” But then, this sounds like the US too where the Coming Apart scenario is leading to status-obsession. Indeed, the elites don’t really care for foreigners and equality. It’s just status-virtue-signaling for those who are obsessed about privilege and do ANYTHING to send their kids to best schools to meet with right kind of people.

    Globalism and mass immigration is supposed to be about equality, but it drives a wedge between native elites and native masses. During the New Deal, there was a sense of white America as one, from top to bottom. Now, top elements of White America look upon lower half of white America as deplorable. And the likes of Pelosi and Bush invoke Diversity to mask their own privilege. So, their snubbing of American working class is justified because Jeb married a brown midget and Pelosi’s grandkid wants to larp as Guatemalan lettuce picker. Yeah, Marie Antoinette sometimes played at being a shepherdess.

    As for NK mess, it can be resolved IF Kors control their real history. US divided Korea and gave half to Stalin. Jews know their own history, but Kors are too chicken to face up to reality. If Kors mention the truth, it puts US on the moral defensive because (1) US had fully supported Japanese colonization (2) made a mess of liberation by giving half to Stalin (3) used worst kind of diplomacy to trigger Korean War — declaring to the world that it won’t protect South Korea and then reversing course (4) committing what can only be called mass murder by indiscriminate bombing in NK. (Also, as rotten as Kim’s stalinism was, there was nothing wrong with him wanting to unify his country. If foreign powers forcibly divided US in half, would it be wrong for one side to reunify the nation?) But SK elites were shills of the US. And out of fear of NK, they played toady to NK. As for the retarded Korean left, many of them were mindless admirers of NK, a stalinist creation. And after the fall of the Cold War, the new left just imitate all the self-destructive policies of the West. Statusism comes into play. Since the West is still the richest and most prestigious part of the world, the thing is to follow the West. If the West is committing mass suicide and going over the cliff, then Kors must follow too. Indeed, even anti-white-ism among Kors is imitation of the White Norm. That dummy who works for Donna Zuckerberg learned to be anti-white from whites because white self-hatred is the new norm in the West.

    Anyway, if SK wants ease of tensions with NK, it first has to pressure the US to stop using it as a pawn. And to do this, SK has to mention the history and make the US feel responsible for the creation of NK. In other words, Kors didn’t choose Kim and division. US divided the nation and gave half to Stalin. So, for the US to bitch about evil NK is ludicrous.
    But SK elites cannot state this simple fact because they are whores of US power.Also, they are cowards. With double the population of NK and 40x the economy, you’d think they’d be able to defend themselves like tiny Israel defends itself from all rivals. But no, the soyboy cowards still wet their pants and hide behind uncle sam.

    Trump and Pence are full of shi*, but since NK is nuts and SK is craven and cowardly, maybe if Trump can pull off a successful regime change in NK, maybe he’ll have done more good simply by creating new possibilities. When there are so many lies, maybe a boor who just smashes things and makes new things happen is a kind of idiot-savant-savior. The current impasse is due to so many layers of historical lies. When no one tells the truth and the air is filled with lies, maybe the guy who smashes the door and windows is just what we need.

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    tl;dr
    , @Yngvar
    You sure?
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  114. @Twinkie

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out
     
    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

    It makes sense: in another couple of decades there will be no South Koreans who remember a unified country or have significant family ties to the North.

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  115. @jim jones
    NORK cheerleaders are pretty scary

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOTnDs-AK38

    That would be an awesome troll on the establishment to hire these gals out to cheer some of the more obnoxious politicians in the West. Merkel. Pelosi. Trudeau. Anyone who gave Castro a good sendoff.

    Too bad they are stuck there.

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  116. @snorlax
    The Korean left is certainly more nationalistic, but I wouldn't say the right is "more cucked" so much as "not insane."

    It is certainly possible to take nationalism to the point of insanity, like the WWII Japanese military or their German allies. Seeking, at the minimum, to aid the depraved, communist Kim regime in retaining power in North Korea makes Hideki Tojo look like he was taking all his lithium pills.

    There are few ideologies, indignities or foreign peoples I (or any rational person) would not side with in preference to rule by North Korea, even were they my "ethnic and racial kin." That would in fact steel my opposition further, as there'd be no way to "side with" my enslaved co-ethnics other than against their ethnic-traitor enslavers.

    And as far as indignities go, hosting (friendly) US military bases is pretty small potatoes; they actually make for pretty good neighbors, as Filipinos discovered after getting what they wished for in Subic Bay. Still, I can understand the rage induced by female fraternizing with other, more-masculinized races. But there's no point in being a brainier race if you can't act rationally.

    The Cuck:

    Jamal’s penis is bigger than mine. It’s only sensible that he focus on pleasing my wife while I design microchips. This is a rational division of labor.

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  117. @Fran800
    White South African government definitely had nukes. They (the white government, not the black) gave up the Nukes before handing over power to the Black government. Read the book and articles by Ilana Mercer if you find anything hopeful about the Black-run South Africa.

    Another country that doesn’t have nukes alledgedly assisted with SA’s program.

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  118. @Svigor

    not to mention the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans).
     
    1. Projection: given the way Japs treated their prisoners, it's not at all surprising that they didn't want to be taken prisoner; they assumed everyone else treated prisoners the way they treated theirs.

    2. Reciprocity: given the way Japs treated their prisoners, it wouldn't be at all surprising if we weren't particularly interested in coddling Jap prisoners.

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind. Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.
     
    So, a Korean snagged a rich black celeb, a couple of Korean gals work in the high-end ho biz, and Michelle Rhee. Got any actual evidence?

    And 3) cultural mores: they expected that if captured, on their return they’d be court-martialed or at least socially ostracized for cowardice.

    It was a similar situation to the Eastern Front, where only a tiny percentage on either side survived the war as POWs. Soviet captives could escape near-certain death in the camps by agreeing to fight for the Germans, but Stalin had all the collaborators executed. Even the ones who stayed loyal were given long gulag sentences as cowards. In one of the most shameful (yet unknown) episodes of our history, we sent all the Soviet POWs we “liberated” back to Stalin, knowing full well what their fate would be.

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    • Agree: PV van der Byl
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  119. More likely North Korea conquers the South. They have will and numbers and nukes. Theirs sort of work sometimes while ours have not been tested since the 80s and may well be duds.

    Jonger the NoDonger may well decide he can push it seeing no real comeback for anything else he did. He’s executed anyone who might have told him otherwise.

    If he doesn’t care about casualties he could out do grandpa

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  120. @reiner Tor

    China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered
     
    A lot of the Armchair Intelligence Chiefs propose this course of action. Are they aware that if China could, it probably would have young Kim murdered already?

    >Phase I – China’s agents stage a coup, Kim is murdered, and PLA troops cross the border to stabilize the country and secure the nuclear weapons.

    Kim removed this possibility in 2012 by purging anybody who was deemed to subservient to Beijing, including his own uncle. This also had the doubly important effect of establishing-quite bluntly-his authority in a hyper-Confucian culture where men his age typically don’t reign. Chang Song Taek probably thought he could be a sort of regent figure. Kim wasn’t having that.

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  121. @Rosh
    Among developed nations, Japan is the most conservative and nationalistic by far. The Koreans, and even the Chinese, are more susceptible to globalism. Even with 70 years as an American protectorate, the Japanese remain largely unscathed from Americanization. Those centuries as a completely isolated island nation has had an enduring effect on their national character.

    Among developed nations, Japan is the most conservative and nationalistic by far. The Koreans, and even the Chinese, are more susceptible to globalism. Even with 70 years as an American

    By what objective measure are the Japanese less nationalistic than the Chinese? Maybe conservative in non-immigration views, but not nationalistic AFAICS.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-vs-japan/

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  122. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Graham
    "the mysterious lack of prisoners during the Pacific campaign (probably ascribed to suicidal emperor worshipers by Americans)"

    I've been reading two memoirs of the war against the Japanese by British writers who fought in Burma: Quartered Safe Out Here by George Macdonald Fraser, author of the Flashman novels (the title is ironic: he wasn't safe); and The Road Beyond Mandalay by John Masters, author of many novels about British India and other subjects, whom I wholeheartedly recommend. Both these men note the lack of (unwounded) prisoners and state the simple reason for it, which was the Japanese habit of fighting to the death. Masters says that in his opinion most Japanese soldiers, had they been British or American, would have been eligible for the Victoria Cross or Congressional Medal of Honor.

    https://www.counter-currents.com/2015/07/dirty-japs/

    Despite the generally held belief that persists to this day, a belief which argues that all Japanese soldiers willingly, even eagerly, died for the emperor, relatively few young men embraced such an end if there was any hope of living. Like the American, British, and Australian soldiers they were facing, most Japanese soldiers dreamed only of a day when the war was over; when they could return home in peace to family and friends; to marry a sweetheart; to raise a family; to tend a small garden; to enjoy life. Nevertheless, almost from the first, it soon became apparent to these young men that there would be, that there could be, no surrender. Wrote one American early in the war:

    Japanese were known to come out of the jungle unarmed with their hands raised crying ‘”mercy, mercy,” only to be mowed down by machine-gun fire.

    Time and again, on every contested island and every spit of sand, Japanese soldiers and sailors were slaughtered the instant they raised their hands and walked forward to surrender. After scores of such encounters in which breathless comrades in hiding watched, waited, then witnessed the massacre of their unarmed friends, fewer and fewer Japanese soldiers entertained even the slightest notion of giving up.

    Ironically, though murdering a helpless enemy may have brought some sadistic satisfaction to Allied soldiers, the failure to take prisoners insured that thousands of comrades would also be killed by an enemy now forced to dig in and fight to the death. It is also a fact that as the war wore on and defeat became certain, more and more Japanese soldiers would have gladly surrendered if only they could.

    “If men had been allowed to surrender honorably,” admitted one Japanese veteran late in the war, “everybody would have been doing it.”

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    That makes the Bataan Death March completely understandable, Spanky.
    , @Anonymous

    "Lying across the [air]strip were dozens of dead Japs... As our officer crossed in the vanguard a Jap, apparently wounded, cried out for help. The officer walked over to aid him, and as he did the Jap sprang to life and hurled a grenade which wounded him in the face. From then on the only good Jap was a dead one, and although they tried the same trick again and again throughout the campaign, they were dispatched before they had time to use their grenade. "Our policy was to watch any apparent dead, shoot at the slightest sign of life and stab with bayonet even the ones who appeared to be rotten. It was all out from then on, neither side showing any quarter and no prisoners were taken."
    – Sergeant Arthur Traill, 2/12th Infantry Battalion, Australian Army.
     
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  123. @Svigor
    I just had the pleasure of listening to the most breathtakingly dishonest piece of "journalism" from NPR. They had some limey on from The Atlantic and the two were comparing notes on how they were throwing journalism under the bus in the name of forcing the illusion of equal outcomes (shoehorning more stories about and sourced from women, for its own sake). The limey actually said outright that he thinks journalism isn't about reporting on reality, but on actuating it with propaganda (he didn't use that word, obviously, but that's what he was describing).

    What do you call it when behavior moves from corruption to open agenda?

    Hell, I'm not even sure it was dishonest. They were very open about not giving a shit about journalism, substituting propaganda (that they had redefined as "journalism") in it's stead.

    I gotta find a transcript of this.

    I just had the pleasure of listening to the most breathtakingly dishonest piece of “journalism” from NPR. They had some limey on from The Atlantic and the two were comparing notes on how they were throwing journalism under the bus in the name of forcing the illusion of equal outcomes (shoehorning more stories about and sourced from women, for its own sake). The limey actually said outright that he thinks journalism isn’t about reporting on reality, but on actuating it with propaganda (he didn’t use that word, obviously, but that’s what he was describing).

    It seems to me that this is honesty about their dishonesty – this is what the likes of npr have been doing for a long time, so nice to see them admit it.

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  124. @eahRead More
    • Replies: @MichiganMom
    At least his portrait looks like him, weird hand not withstanding. Hers?.....
    , @Anonym
    In the land of the 5 fingered kleptomaniacs, the 6 fingered man will be king.
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  125. @NJ Transit Commuter
    Koreans are unfortunate to be stuck in one of the most strategic points on the globe. Since the 19th century there have been several major wars fought over the Korean Peninsula:
    - Sino Japanese war in the 1870s
    - Russo Japanese war in the 1900s
    - Korean War in the 1950s

    Unless there are major changes in geopolitics, the safest thing for the world is a divided Korean Peninsula, as sad as that is for the people of Korea, especially North Korea. The are two possible futures for a united Korea (I assume that Korea is not united by North Korea taking over the south).

    1. A Korean Peninsula allied with the US. This would mean US troops on the Chinese border. With or without nukes in Korea this would be a disaster waiting to happen. One border incident and the world’s two superpowers would be at war.

    2. A “neutral” Korean Peninsula. In reality this would quickly result in a Korean Peninsula under Chinese suzerainty, as has been the case for most of history. Japan immediately goes nuclear if that happens, and the NW Pacific becomes greatly destabilized.

    What everyone should be aiming for is a North Korea that resembles Cold War East Germany or Yugoslavia, rather than Stalinist Russia.

    What everyone should be aiming for is a North Korea that resembles Cold War East Germany or Yugoslavia, rather than Stalinist Russia.

    Excellent observation.

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  126. @TheUmpteenthGermanOnHere
    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.

    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.

    Except for the part about the huge fertility gap.

    And 80% of young West Germans not looking to escape.

    And the difference between one’s patron and backup being late-communist Russia, vs early-capitalist China.

    But other than that, yes – the analogy’s almost perfect.

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  127. @AndrewR
    I am far from an expert on Germany, and I certainly acknowledge the significance of the Cold War and German division, but I have a hunch that a significant number of the East-West differences in Germany can be chalked up to old regional differences that greatly predate the Cold War. Is this true?

    Not really imo, neither East Germany nor West Germany were historically homogenous regions (East Germany included the remaining core territories of Prussia, but also Saxony which had had its own king until 1918, and Thuringia also had its own identity; and West Germany was even more diverse). The East-West divide as it is today really is mostly due to the 1945-1990 era imo. There’s also a North-South divide in Germany which in some ways is more natural and deeper imo. Alternative history is difficult to do right, but I don’t think the East-West split as it is today was in any way inevitable or a natural consequence of pre-1945 history.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    We need a "Thank You" button on this site. Danke schön. I need to study more German history.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    I've seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture. I'm sure many Germans have used "Drei-und-Zwanzig und Mich" and other such services; do the results bear this theory out?

    I've also counted at least seven football clubs in the Rheinland which call themselves "Borussia", the Latin name for Prussia, including two in the first division in Dortmund and Mönchengladbach. Parts of this region were attached to the Prussian empire for a time before the 1870 unification (when most of today's football clubs were founded), as Franconia was to Bavaria, but they kept their local identity.

    The tour guide at the Residenz in Würzburg told us (in German, in 2001) that, while the city has been officially part of Bavaria for two centuries, "wir sind noch Franken im Herzen." So why would Kaiser-era Rhinelanders embrace Prussia in such a way? My grade school classmates in early-statehood Hawaii were proud to be full Americans finally, but they had no illusions they were mainlanders. And they wouldn't want to be.

    , @Twinkie
    Genetic studies bears this out. Germans of different regions are shifted toward their non-German neighbors. Germany as a nation-state is most definitely a cultural and historical construct, not a ethno-biological one.
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  128. Giving up nukes would be suicidal, and not just in dealing with the U.S. The nukes also keep China at bay somewhat, and, given the vast numbers of Chinese men without brides (thanks, abortion!), one thing keeping the Chinese from invading and literally raping their way across the peninsula is the risk of nuke.

    A large mass of horny young Chinese soldiers could very swiftly become a rampaging horde of slaughter and rape down to the DMZ or beyond if not kept at bay by something large and nasty like a nuclear attack. See, e.g., the Vikings, for what happens when there is no such check.

    Related: I think China is at the forefront of sexbot research and other sex-substitute developments.

    The Chinese aren’t so stupid as to forget that a large mass of men with no sex partners is, historically, very very dangerous and makes things very very unstable. Chinese government and Chinese billionaires and Chinese tech companies have probably prioritized porn and masturbation-aid production as one of the top ten priorities for the country, if not top five.

    The availability of streaming internet porn and encouragement of masturbation is known to cause men to retreat and become more docile in the world, as many of the NoFaps guys talk about here in America. But that’s not enough to quell the male ambition completely, only partially, and we’re in a society where there are only slightly more men than women. China is likely accelerating any sex-bot technology as fast as it will go, given their huge gender imbalance.

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  129. Steve, Could you start a post on the new Obama portraits. I live in WNY, home to one of America’s greatest contemporary art galleries, but I don’t know what to make of these two works. A great portrait captures the image and maybe the soul, but I don’t quite get Barack “man spreading” while sitting in the ivy. Michelle’s portrait looks nothing like her and has an unusual skin tone. Lots of remarks both for and against on NYT.

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    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Obama's "artist" also painted this heart warming picture:

    https://heartiste.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/noghead1.jpeg
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  130. @Tulip
    If South Korea gets their hands on N. Korea's nuclear program, they will keep it going. Boromir was right, no one gives away a ring of power.

    If Japan doesn't develop nukes, they are crazy irrespective of Korea. They have a nuclear armed China with a billion citizens next door, and Japan is too busy working and watching hentai to make babies enough to put together a decent security defense force.

    Sure, they have security commitments from the United States, with the best-equipped intersectional cry-babies in the history of the world, but when has the U.S. won a war against a country that was even remotely evenly matched? Say, 1945 (and only because the Russians softened 'em up). . . and that was way before the era of social engineering for equality over competence and cohesion.

    when has the U.S. won a war against a country that was even remotely evenly matched? Say, 1945 (and only because the Russians softened ‘em up). . .

    Don’t forget 1865.

    I wouldn’t count on the U.S. to roll over. When we’ve faced a real power, we’ve shown in Atlanta and Dresden and Hiroshima that we’ll use some real scorched earth tactics. We fight down to our competition.

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    • Replies: @Tulip
    We couldn't win the Korean war the first time around, Vietnam was pathetic, and our campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq appear to be totally ineffectual in accomplishing anything useful for the national interest. We have had two generations of weaklings, and they keep making them softer and softer. Pretty soon, the Stay-Puff Marshmellow Man, who identifies as a woman and wears a skirt, will be leading us into combat.
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  131. OFF TOPIC

    US Senators Tom Cotton, Thom Tillis and James Lankford are treasonous Republican Party rats who do the bidding of the GOP Cheap Labor Faction.

    Cotton, Tillis and Lankford want to give amnesty to millions of illegal alien invaders. They also want to massively increase the number of foreigners in the United States. Cotton, Tillis and Lankford are nasty politician whores who want to massively increase the guest worker and visa numbers so as to keep the supply of cheap labor flowing into the United States.

    Cotton, Tillis and Lankford want to make it easier for foreigners to colonize the United States. Cotton, Tillis and Lankford are putting the interests of foreigners ahead of the interests of citizens of the United States.

    Cotton, Tillis and Lankford want to pour more multiculturalism into the United States. Cotton, Tillis and Lankford are pushing globalization, multiculturalism and amnesty for illegal alien invaders.

    Cotton, Tillis and Lankford are treasonous weasels who want to reward illegal aliens with amnesty and they want to reward the GOP Cheap Labor Faction with massive increases in the amount of foreigners flooding into the United States.

    President Trump must walk away from any immigration law backed by Cotton, Tillis and Lankford.

    President Trump’s presidency will be destroyed if he goes along with the Cotton, Tillis and Lankford amnesty for illegal aliens scheme.

    Just listening to Cotton, Tillis and Lankford on their amnesty for illegal aliens scam is enough to know that these politicians are untrustworthy rats who want to stab the American people in the back.

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  132. OT: Socialist Students Protest Memorial To Fallen Police Officers

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/socialist-students-protest-memorial-fallen-police-officers

    The ‘well-funded left’ is beginning to turn into their version of the Westboro Baptist Church.

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  133. I doubt a unified Korea would retain North Korea’s nukes. The Koreans are a first-world society. If they wanted to have a nuclear deterrent, they wouldn’t they much prefer an up to date one crafted of the latest technology. The Nork’s have a cobbled together system designed for the sole purpose of deterring local threats and the USA.

    A united Korea, barring a real threat from China, would probably prefer to avoid the high cost of maintaining and continually upgrading a serious nuclear establishment. It took a while for a united German to bring East German into the fold; infrastructure, standardization of currency etc. Nuke’s are expensive! On the other hand, if China reacted aggressively enough to reunification, sure, a united Korea would be wise to go nuclear; Japan as well.

    They might choose to follow the early Chinese example themselves. The early Chinese nuclear force was modest, slow to operate and existed to dissuade invaders. Korea and Japan could get by with a smallish number of highly reliable and survival tactical nukes. That would raise the cost to China without unacceptable expenditures.

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  134. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @AndrewR
    Reunification will have to be a very gradual process. Ideally, it will take at least 30-50 years of gradual changes. For very clear reasons, it cannot be anything like German reunification.

    South Korea is probably getting sick of America's shit. The vile spectacle of Pence and co. trying to cockblock Korean unity will likely not be forgotten anytime soon.


    Japan will "nuke up" eventually regardless. People who remember the war are very old and will not be around much longer. Japanese may seem like "herbivore" asexual otaku wimps but that's largely due to American largesse. What can't go on forever won't.

    Reunification [of the Koreas] will have to be a very gradual process. Ideally, it will take at least 30-50 years of gradual changes. For very clear reasons, it cannot be anything like German reunification.

    Reunification of the Koreas is NOT in the interest of Americans, and is not really helpful to North or South Koreans themselves.

    Inevitably, “reunification” would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

    As another commenter noted, a Romanian-type solution for an independent North Korea staying in China’s orbit may be the best we (and the North Koreans themselves) can realistically aim for.

    North Korea is a horrendous dictatorship, but we need to remember that its population has been ideologically pozzed for three generations. With the experience of Germany fresh in mind, South Koreans would be insane to allow a North Korean propaganda officer to become their Angela Merkel. (Koreans may be that insane, but they shouldn’t be.)

    BTW while we are about restructuring far-away countries, how about helping Switzerland reunify with Austria and Germany? Should we aim for slow Germanization of Swiss institutions? Resettle French-speaking Swiss in France or Belgium?

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Inevitably, “reunification” would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

     

    Sometime in the GHWB Administration I had dinner with a bunch of international students, including one hardcore Chinese girl and at least one or two Korean guys. She actually tried to tell them that Korea truly was an integral part of China, like Taiwan and Tibet and so forth. They were gobsmacked, but didn't want to escalate, and just did the Korean equivalent of rolling their eyes.

    Promising/threatening to make the North a province of China might, as Dr Johnson said about impending execution, concentrate the mind wonderfully.
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  135. I doubt a unified Korea would retain North Korea’s nukes. The Koreans are a first-word society and even if they wanted to have a nuclear deterrent, they would much prefer an up to date one crafted of the latest technology. The Nork’s have a cobbled together system designed for the sole purpose of deterring local threats and the USA.

    A united Korea, barring a real threat from China, would probably prefer to avoid the high cost of maintaining and continually upgrading a serious nuclear establishment. It took a while for a united German to bring East German into the fold; infrastructure, standardization of currency etc. Nuke’s are expensive! On the other hand, if China reacted aggressively enough to reunification, sure, a united Korea would be wise to go nuclear; Japan as well.

    They might choose to follow the early Chinese example. The early Chinese nuclear force was modest, slow to operate and existed to dissuade invaders. Korea and Japan could get by with a smallish number of highly reliable and survival tactical nukes. That would raise the cost to China without unacceptable expenditures.

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  136. @songbird
    As I understand it, the Chinese army was already mobilizing and being prepped for the move, before the US even intervened. So, it wasn't really about crossing any line. They had already decided on who they were going to back, the main question being could NK take the whole peninsula without Chinese troops or not. What the Chinese said was in effect just empty rhetoric, which was mostly just how they spoke.

    Chinese say all kinds of shit; whatever the other fellow wants to hear.

    But they do just as they please notwithstanding any words or even promises. Then if anyone points.oit the inconsistency, they are indignant at the lack of decorum.

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  137. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @ic1000
    I'm no expert on Korea, but most commentary strikes me as naive and uninformed. South Koreans have their interests, the North's regime has theirs, and it doesn't seem that very many US opinionators make much effort to understand either, in any depth.

    There's a good interview with Western professor P.R. Myers of Dongseo University at -- of all places! -- Slate.com. Isaac Chotiner, Sympathy for North Korea: Why South Koreans might just be willing to align with Kim Jong-un. The obligatory Trump-hatred is surprisingly muted.

    The North is arming to compel the peaceful withdrawal of U.S. troops from the peninsula, in the belief that the South could then be cajoled or intimidated into submission. The current South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has repeatedly made clear that he opposes the use of military force against North Korea no matter what happens. He and his camp support the idea of a North-South confederation. Pyongyang has always seen confederation as a brief transition to a takeover of the South, while Seoul sees it as a symbolic union that will enable it to postpone real unification indefinitely. America is thus in the absurd and very dangerous position of a bodyguard trying to protect someone who is promising a stalker a sort of pro forma marriage.
     

    The current South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has repeatedly made clear that he opposes the use of military force against North Korea no matter what happens.

    How many senior politicians, government officials, industrial leaders etc. in South Korea are Nork agents or have Nork agents in their entourage? How many Gunter Guillaumes are in place?

    The CIA learned a great deal about East German subversion of West Germany when they acquired Stasi archives, but most of the information remains top secret, and many Stasi agents including Angela Merkel remain in positions of great influence.

    Remember that Western HUMINT capabilities in Korea are far weaker than they were in Germany due to language, racial and strategic reasons.

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  138. You do realize what is going on in Germany under East Germany’s Merkel?

    Reunification will be on the North’s terms, under the ultimate control of China.

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  139. OFF TOPIC

    US Senator James Lankford(R-Okla.) is a frigging wacko who wants to give amnesty to illegal aliens and reward greedy cheap labor hogs with more waves of mass immigration. There ain’t no damn way this pussy boy has any pioneer ancestors. No way. Listen to this nutless puke Lankford in the immigration debate and tell me this guy has the best interests of the American people at heart. No way! Lankford is an untrustworthy politician rat.

    Actual quote on US Senate floor from weasel rat James Lankford(Feb. 12, 2018):

    “WE HAVE PEOPLE FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD THAT COME INTO THE UNITED STATES AND WE CONTINUE TO WELCOME PEOPLE FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD. I’M FASCINATED THE OLYMPICS, AS PEOPLE MARCH IN FROM THEIR COUNTRY, EVERYONE LOOKS THE SAME UNDER THEIR FLAG UNTIL YOU GET TO THE UNITED STATES. AND WHEN THE UNITED STATES MARCHS IN YOU CAN’T PICK OUT WHICH ONE LOOKS AMERICAN.”

    “WE ARE AMERICAN. BUT IN MANY COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, THEY ALL LOOK THE SAME BECAUSE YOU’RE NOT WELCOMED IF YOU DON’T LOOK LIKE THEM. NOT SO WITH US. WE WELCOME PEOPLE FREELY FROM AROUND THE WORLD.”

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?440986-1/senate-debates-immigration-legislation&start=8202

    US Senator James Lankford is a crybaby pussy boy who does the bidding of the GOP Cheap Labor Faction. Lankford pushes mass immigration, multiculturalism and amnesty for illegal alien invaders. Lankford is the type of phony Christian whore who always seems to do exactly what the Mammonite bastards want him to. Lankford is an evil politician whore.

    President Trump must walk away from all the bad immigration bills coming out of the US Senate.

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIENS NOW!

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  140. I expected to see this earlier, apologies if I missed it. South Koreans are civilized, especially in terms of industrial safety standards. Norks let their leader smoke a cigar a short distance from a rocket launcher he was observing. Nork safety standards are “try not to die.” South Koreans would clean up Nork nukes, they might retain it as a glare at China and a one-upsmanning to Japan, but they’d have to do considerable work, possibly approaching the scale of starting over. They’re up to the task and I doubt they would give up something so valuable because of this. There was some interesting speculation at a Nork area studies blog about how, whether Rocket Man pushes the button or not, Nork nukes are problem to the region anyway because they are almost certainly not being handled to international standards.

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  141. @istevefan

    1. South Korea doesn’t need North Korean technology. Its nuclear and satellite-launching industries are far more advanced than anything the North has.
     
    Great point. North Korean tech is unreliable. South Korea has the knowledge and ability to obtain nuclear weapons if they want them, and they could develop superior ICBMs. The question is why would they keep inferior technology?

    The West Germans inherited a bunch of stuff from East Germany, but got rid of it, .e.g Mig-29s.

    A lot of it they got rid of by allowing it to flood the black market. That would be a good warning to keep in mind.

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  142. @TheUmpteenthGermanOnHere
    By those criteria, time also favored the East Germans.

    Genau!

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  143. @jim jones
    NORK cheerleaders are pretty scary

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOTnDs-AK38

    Not very diverse. Don’t know why we should be afraid of NK.

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  144. They will keep those nukes as a hedge against the hundreds of thousands of dead they lost fighting the PLA for control of North Korea. Again. Because that is what it will take for the emergence of a unified Korea, from the Yalu River in the north to the East China Sea in the south, that is not a Chinese puppet state.

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  145. I support a united Korea, keeping their nukes, with a system where both groups are in government.

    But with no US troops, no puppet state of US, and less of fat guy. Maybe they can have President and PM role.

    The combined nation with nukes and economy would be a world power (along with UK, France).

    Economy wise, the South Korea would take a hit short term, then stagnate,
    finally though after a few decades the economy of U Korea can increase more.

    The US wont let that happen though.
    As SK, NK, China, Russia were talking about it. The US and its “allies” had a meeting in Vancouver.

    Its unlikely to happen, unless we see NATO, US power fall.
    Perhaps if Turkey gets angry with both EU and US, leaves, it might trigger something.

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  146. @Buffalo Joe
    Steve, Could you start a post on the new Obama portraits. I live in WNY, home to one of America's greatest contemporary art galleries, but I don't know what to make of these two works. A great portrait captures the image and maybe the soul, but I don't quite get Barack "man spreading" while sitting in the ivy. Michelle's portrait looks nothing like her and has an unusual skin tone. Lots of remarks both for and against on NYT.

    Obama’s “artist” also painted this heart warming picture:

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Ah, Chicago, that toddlin' town...

    http://tjcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/mirth-and-girth-2.jpg

    And, in the interest of equal time:

    http://www.digitaljournal.com/img/8/7/3/i/4/3/6/o/SarahPalin-by-BruceElliott_1.jpg

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  147. @Twinkie

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602761-korean-men-are-marrying-foreigners-more-choice-necessity-farmed-out
     
    Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented.

    Furthermore, the idea that South Koreans want a unified, unitary Korean state is quite outdated. South Koreans know the enormous cost such an endeavor would require, and are also increasingly less than generous toward North Korean defectors who are seen as very alien and incapable of assimilating into a capitalist society. It appears now that South Koreans just want North Korea to go away. They don’t want any tension with, and threats from, North Korea, but they also don’t want refugees either.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

    This is a turnaround from a couple of decades ago when desire for reunification was nearly universal.

    Derb has made the same point about Ulster. The British, at least the English, are sick of it and ready to give it back. But the subsidies keeping the peace will cost the Irish twelve times as much per capita, so they’ll be in no hurry to reunite.

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  148. I’ve been thinking it over and realized that really this NPR thing is a wonderful development in “journalism.” Now we can expect “journalists” to write/talk about and source from Jews at rates no higher than Jews’ share of the population, from White Christian heterosexual males at no less than theirs, etc. Same goes for every other group. Same goes for “journalists” themselves; they’re gonna look just like America from now on.

    Joyous day!

    Michelle’s portrait looks nothing like her and has an unusual skin tone.

    The Wookie’s looks like an underpainting, or a painting half-finished.

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  149. @eah

    At least his portrait looks like him, weird hand not withstanding. Hers?…..

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  150. @German_reader
    Not really imo, neither East Germany nor West Germany were historically homogenous regions (East Germany included the remaining core territories of Prussia, but also Saxony which had had its own king until 1918, and Thuringia also had its own identity; and West Germany was even more diverse). The East-West divide as it is today really is mostly due to the 1945-1990 era imo. There's also a North-South divide in Germany which in some ways is more natural and deeper imo. Alternative history is difficult to do right, but I don't think the East-West split as it is today was in any way inevitable or a natural consequence of pre-1945 history.

    We need a “Thank You” button on this site. Danke schön. I need to study more German history.

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  151. @Anonymous

    Reunification [of the Koreas] will have to be a very gradual process. Ideally, it will take at least 30-50 years of gradual changes. For very clear reasons, it cannot be anything like German reunification.
     
    Reunification of the Koreas is NOT in the interest of Americans, and is not really helpful to North or South Koreans themselves.

    Inevitably, "reunification" would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

    As another commenter noted, a Romanian-type solution for an independent North Korea staying in China's orbit may be the best we (and the North Koreans themselves) can realistically aim for.

    North Korea is a horrendous dictatorship, but we need to remember that its population has been ideologically pozzed for three generations. With the experience of Germany fresh in mind, South Koreans would be insane to allow a North Korean propaganda officer to become their Angela Merkel. (Koreans may be that insane, but they shouldn't be.)

    BTW while we are about restructuring far-away countries, how about helping Switzerland reunify with Austria and Germany? Should we aim for slow Germanization of Swiss institutions? Resettle French-speaking Swiss in France or Belgium?

    Inevitably, “reunification” would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

    Sometime in the GHWB Administration I had dinner with a bunch of international students, including one hardcore Chinese girl and at least one or two Korean guys. She actually tried to tell them that Korea truly was an integral part of China, like Taiwan and Tibet and so forth. They were gobsmacked, but didn’t want to escalate, and just did the Korean equivalent of rolling their eyes.

    Promising/threatening to make the North a province of China might, as Dr Johnson said about impending execution, concentrate the mind wonderfully.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In the 1930s, Mao was asked about the territorial limits of the post-revolutionary China he sought.

    Mao answered that the new China would include all the traditional Chinese territories of the Qing dynasty, except, of course, Korea and Taiwan(!) both of which could remain parts of the Japanese empire.

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  152. @Karl
    14 Twinkie > Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children


    some Korean chicks are quite hot - and considering that the country has the world's highest prevalence of cosmetic plastic surgery, why wouldn't they be - if heavy-on-the-slant-with-kimchi is your cup of tea, then I recommend shopping for one at the Micronesia Mall in Guam

    I think Twinkie is happily married. But even if he is not, I don’t think he would consider ‘shopping for one’ as a preferred strategy for locating a soulmate.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I think Twinkie is happily married. But even if he is not, I don’t think he would consider ‘shopping for one’ as a preferred strategy for locating a soulmate.
     
    Indeed, I am and have been for a quarter century to a lovely flower of the heartland who bore for me a large brood.

    And I don't think "Karl" gets what "Twinkie" means in this context.
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  153. @Charles Pewitt
    Japan and Germany must each get a nuclear deterrent. The sooner they do, the sooner the American Empire can leave their territory and restore the sovereignty of Germany and Japan. World War II must come to an end someday.

    The Germans and the Japanese could probably have a credible nuclear deterrent in ten minutes or a few months. I presume the Deep State of both Germany and Japan have contingency plans to get nukes and the means to deliver them.

    The European Union will be obliterated and the euro currency will be vaporized when the Germans get their sovereignty back by inviting the American Empire to leave German soil and when the Germans get a nuclear deterrent. Mass deportations of Merkel's invasionary army of non-Europeans can then begin.

    Alternative for Deutschland will get stronger as the baby boomer Germans get weaker and more deranged. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton were the peak of baby boomer derangement, those types of baby boomers will be removed from power and their assets will be liquidated.

    I can see a time in the not too distant future when Hillary Clinton and Angela Merkel will be forced to live in deportation centers with the non-Europeans that they helped to flood into the USA and Germany. Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton will be sent into exile to Third World areas such as Haiti or the Congo. They won't be allowed to go into exile in Monaco.

    Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton will be sent into exile to Third World areas such as Haiti or the Congo.

    Yes! But of course that is simply too good to come true. Old Scratch isn’t going to let his harpies receive their just deserts in this life – that will have to wait for the next.

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  154. @German_reader
    Not really imo, neither East Germany nor West Germany were historically homogenous regions (East Germany included the remaining core territories of Prussia, but also Saxony which had had its own king until 1918, and Thuringia also had its own identity; and West Germany was even more diverse). The East-West divide as it is today really is mostly due to the 1945-1990 era imo. There's also a North-South divide in Germany which in some ways is more natural and deeper imo. Alternative history is difficult to do right, but I don't think the East-West split as it is today was in any way inevitable or a natural consequence of pre-1945 history.

    I’ve seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture. I’m sure many Germans have used “Drei-und-Zwanzig und Mich” and other such services; do the results bear this theory out?

    I’ve also counted at least seven football clubs in the Rheinland which call themselves “Borussia”, the Latin name for Prussia, including two in the first division in Dortmund and Mönchengladbach. Parts of this region were attached to the Prussian empire for a time before the 1870 unification (when most of today’s football clubs were founded), as Franconia was to Bavaria, but they kept their local identity.

    The tour guide at the Residenz in Würzburg told us (in German, in 2001) that, while the city has been officially part of Bavaria for two centuries, “wir sind noch Franken im Herzen.” So why would Kaiser-era Rhinelanders embrace Prussia in such a way? My grade school classmates in early-statehood Hawaii were proud to be full Americans finally, but they had no illusions they were mainlanders. And they wouldn’t want to be.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    >slavs
    Maybe some mixture (West Poles were considered almost-German by the Nazis) but surely most of them are Germans. Germany cranked out a massive amount of people and the DDR was on solidly historically German territory.
    >football club
    Same reason we named our university sports teams after Indians with warlike reputations?
    , @German_reader

    I’ve seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture.
     
    Sure, the area east of the Elbe was only Germanized from the 12th century onwards (there was a crusade against the still pagan Slavs...), there's no doubt that the population of East Germany is descended to a significant degree from Germanized Slavs. You've got all those place names ending in -itz which show it once was Slav country, and genetic testing has confirmed demographic continuity...which of course makes Nazi views of Slavs as racially inferior all the more bizarre.
    It's funny you mention Franconia, I grew up there, near the former border with the GDR. And yes, it definitely isn't "real" Bavaria, despite having been part of Bavaria for two centuries.
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  155. @The Z Blog

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.
     
    That same line of reasoning was popular in the 1980's, with regards to the Soviets. In the end, it was the application of pressure on several fronts that caused the regime to crack.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.

    We can hope. It is the most appealing alternative.

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  156. @Anon
    Korean nationalism isn't real. It's a crutch for butt-hurt feelings of inferiority. Because of the obsessive focus on status-ism, Koreans lack appreciation for humanism. Gain a bit of status, they put on airs. And because of a toxic kind of familism, the question is "Is it good for my kids?" They will do anything to favor the kids. They are like Sicilians in this way. So, there was Nut Rage in South Korea and the Kim clan in the North. Spoiled brats raised by parents who put kids uber alles.
    Look at fatso Kim in a nation of starving people. He's not just chubby but fatty fat.

    It's easy to control Koreans if you understand the psychology. Their nationalism is just a defense mechanism. It's not real pride. In contrast, Jews, even under Roman rule, had immense pride as Jews. In contrast, Koreans prop up nationalism when they feel rejected or snubbed by the world. And they tend to exaggerate their national greatness. NK propaganda would have people believe that people around the world are inspired by teachings of Kim. A total joke. And SK will exaggerate achievements of Korean history while denying the key role Japan played in modernization of Korea.

    Because Korean nationalism is a bogus crutch, there is an easy way to make Koreans betray their nation and people for something else. Just flatter them. Tell them they are so 'cool' and 'advanced' and an important partner in UN and with US, and their defenses melt. Gee, they've been allowed into the Big Boy's Club. All of a sudden, they are loyal slobbering dogs. Ian Buruma in God's Dust was right about Korean butt-hurt character. It's due to lack of true nationalism and true humanism. Having played role of little dog to big dog China, status-ism and petty kind of familism trump all. If you massage but hurt-butt of Koreans, they are babies full of smiles.

    If Koreans had a humanist culture, they would value their culture/history simply because it's a story of people. And that should be enough. But status-madness makes for obsession to be accepted and approved by bigger powers. Koreans feel they have no value unless recognized by the world. And if not recognized, they must inflate and exaggerate their own self-importance. Or, if envious of Japan, they'll say everything Japanese originated in Korea.

    It's like Korean-Americans turning pro-Diversity the minute they get in because they are now part of the Winners Club. Also, Korean familism is not like good hearty family values. Rather, it's petty obsession to make one's own kid rise higher so that one can show off to other families. When Americans hear that kids of other families have done well, they feel generous of heart, and this is the good side of American character. When Koreans hear that other kids have done better than their own kids, they just feel resentment.

    One good thing about Japanese colonization and the hellish war was it leveled old Korean hierarchies. Rich became poor, and class distinctions vanished for many, and everyone was in the same boat. This was the humanist moment, as with Japan after WWII. Kurosawa's films are morally informed by this period. Already by BAD SLEEP WELL and HIGH AND LOW, the old hierarchy is back. In HIGH AND LOW, the rich man has to struggle to see his chauffeur's son as member of the same community and nation. SEVEN SAMURAI are about masterless samurai learning to serve the people than follow the path of status and vanity. (Mao, he took this logic too far. Sending professors to clean pigpens maybe wasn't the best use of mental capital in backward China.)

    Now, economic development is good, and who the hell wants universal poverty? But in East Asia where hierarchy has been so toxic, the rise of the new class of rich led to another round of snobbery. The whole thing about dirty-dangerous-demeaning job began in Japan and spread to Korea and other richer Asian nations. Modern Japan was made by people working in factories and with their hands, but so many Japanese now see those jobs as lowly. Japanese will not have kids unless they can be sure of sending their kids to best schools. Koreans and Taiwanese are the same way. They are ashamed to have kids who do 'dirty' jobs. So, increasing they rely on foreigners. Once foreigners become associated with 'dirty' jobs, the natives want those jobs even less. So, both Japan and SK have high suicide rates. Better death than 'dirty job' associated with lowly foreigners. SK is worse off than Japan because SK elites are educated in US, which means they suck up all the PC. So, on the one hand, SK depends on more foreign labor because they see manual jobs as too lowly for Koreans. Immigration is premised on Koreans being too good for those jobs. But at the same time, the PC-ized Kors attack Koreans for not accepting these foreigners as fellow Kors. What a contradiction. "We need foreigners because we Kors are too good for dirty jobs. But shame on us for not treating foreigners as our equals." But then, this sounds like the US too where the Coming Apart scenario is leading to status-obsession. Indeed, the elites don't really care for foreigners and equality. It's just status-virtue-signaling for those who are obsessed about privilege and do ANYTHING to send their kids to best schools to meet with right kind of people.

    Globalism and mass immigration is supposed to be about equality, but it drives a wedge between native elites and native masses. During the New Deal, there was a sense of white America as one, from top to bottom. Now, top elements of White America look upon lower half of white America as deplorable. And the likes of Pelosi and Bush invoke Diversity to mask their own privilege. So, their snubbing of American working class is justified because Jeb married a brown midget and Pelosi's grandkid wants to larp as Guatemalan lettuce picker. Yeah, Marie Antoinette sometimes played at being a shepherdess.

    As for NK mess, it can be resolved IF Kors control their real history. US divided Korea and gave half to Stalin. Jews know their own history, but Kors are too chicken to face up to reality. If Kors mention the truth, it puts US on the moral defensive because (1) US had fully supported Japanese colonization (2) made a mess of liberation by giving half to Stalin (3) used worst kind of diplomacy to trigger Korean War -- declaring to the world that it won't protect South Korea and then reversing course (4) committing what can only be called mass murder by indiscriminate bombing in NK. (Also, as rotten as Kim's stalinism was, there was nothing wrong with him wanting to unify his country. If foreign powers forcibly divided US in half, would it be wrong for one side to reunify the nation?) But SK elites were shills of the US. And out of fear of NK, they played toady to NK. As for the retarded Korean left, many of them were mindless admirers of NK, a stalinist creation. And after the fall of the Cold War, the new left just imitate all the self-destructive policies of the West. Statusism comes into play. Since the West is still the richest and most prestigious part of the world, the thing is to follow the West. If the West is committing mass suicide and going over the cliff, then Kors must follow too. Indeed, even anti-white-ism among Kors is imitation of the White Norm. That dummy who works for Donna Zuckerberg learned to be anti-white from whites because white self-hatred is the new norm in the West.

    Anyway, if SK wants ease of tensions with NK, it first has to pressure the US to stop using it as a pawn. And to do this, SK has to mention the history and make the US feel responsible for the creation of NK. In other words, Kors didn't choose Kim and division. US divided the nation and gave half to Stalin. So, for the US to bitch about evil NK is ludicrous.
    But SK elites cannot state this simple fact because they are whores of US power.Also, they are cowards. With double the population of NK and 40x the economy, you'd think they'd be able to defend themselves like tiny Israel defends itself from all rivals. But no, the soyboy cowards still wet their pants and hide behind uncle sam.

    Trump and Pence are full of shi*, but since NK is nuts and SK is craven and cowardly, maybe if Trump can pull off a successful regime change in NK, maybe he'll have done more good simply by creating new possibilities. When there are so many lies, maybe a boor who just smashes things and makes new things happen is a kind of idiot-savant-savior. The current impasse is due to so many layers of historical lies. When no one tells the truth and the air is filled with lies, maybe the guy who smashes the door and windows is just what we need.

    tl;dr

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  157. @Jim Don Bob
    Obama's "artist" also painted this heart warming picture:

    https://heartiste.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/noghead1.jpeg

    Ah, Chicago, that toddlin’ town…

    And, in the interest of equal time:

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  158. @snorlax
    The Korean left is certainly more nationalistic, but I wouldn't say the right is "more cucked" so much as "not insane."

    It is certainly possible to take nationalism to the point of insanity, like the WWII Japanese military or their German allies. Seeking, at the minimum, to aid the depraved, communist Kim regime in retaining power in North Korea makes Hideki Tojo look like he was taking all his lithium pills.

    There are few ideologies, indignities or foreign peoples I (or any rational person) would not side with in preference to rule by North Korea, even were they my "ethnic and racial kin." That would in fact steel my opposition further, as there'd be no way to "side with" my enslaved co-ethnics other than against their ethnic-traitor enslavers.

    And as far as indignities go, hosting (friendly) US military bases is pretty small potatoes; they actually make for pretty good neighbors, as Filipinos discovered after getting what they wished for in Subic Bay. Still, I can understand the rage induced by female fraternizing with other, more-masculinized races. But there's no point in being a brainier race if you can't act rationally.

    It’s far less rage and more amusement. American servicemen tend to attract the uggos, and quite often Filipina prostitutes.

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  159. @Anonymous
    https://www.counter-currents.com/2015/07/dirty-japs/

    Despite the generally held belief that persists to this day, a belief which argues that all Japanese soldiers willingly, even eagerly, died for the emperor, relatively few young men embraced such an end if there was any hope of living. Like the American, British, and Australian soldiers they were facing, most Japanese soldiers dreamed only of a day when the war was over; when they could return home in peace to family and friends; to marry a sweetheart; to raise a family; to tend a small garden; to enjoy life. Nevertheless, almost from the first, it soon became apparent to these young men that there would be, that there could be, no surrender. Wrote one American early in the war:

    Japanese were known to come out of the jungle unarmed with their hands raised crying ‘”mercy, mercy,” only to be mowed down by machine-gun fire.

    Time and again, on every contested island and every spit of sand, Japanese soldiers and sailors were slaughtered the instant they raised their hands and walked forward to surrender. After scores of such encounters in which breathless comrades in hiding watched, waited, then witnessed the massacre of their unarmed friends, fewer and fewer Japanese soldiers entertained even the slightest notion of giving up.

    Ironically, though murdering a helpless enemy may have brought some sadistic satisfaction to Allied soldiers, the failure to take prisoners insured that thousands of comrades would also be killed by an enemy now forced to dig in and fight to the death. It is also a fact that as the war wore on and defeat became certain, more and more Japanese soldiers would have gladly surrendered if only they could.

    “If men had been allowed to surrender honorably,” admitted one Japanese veteran late in the war, “everybody would have been doing it.”
     

    That makes the Bataan Death March completely understandable, Spanky.

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  160. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    https://www.counter-currents.com/2015/07/dirty-japs/

    Despite the generally held belief that persists to this day, a belief which argues that all Japanese soldiers willingly, even eagerly, died for the emperor, relatively few young men embraced such an end if there was any hope of living. Like the American, British, and Australian soldiers they were facing, most Japanese soldiers dreamed only of a day when the war was over; when they could return home in peace to family and friends; to marry a sweetheart; to raise a family; to tend a small garden; to enjoy life. Nevertheless, almost from the first, it soon became apparent to these young men that there would be, that there could be, no surrender. Wrote one American early in the war:

    Japanese were known to come out of the jungle unarmed with their hands raised crying ‘”mercy, mercy,” only to be mowed down by machine-gun fire.

    Time and again, on every contested island and every spit of sand, Japanese soldiers and sailors were slaughtered the instant they raised their hands and walked forward to surrender. After scores of such encounters in which breathless comrades in hiding watched, waited, then witnessed the massacre of their unarmed friends, fewer and fewer Japanese soldiers entertained even the slightest notion of giving up.

    Ironically, though murdering a helpless enemy may have brought some sadistic satisfaction to Allied soldiers, the failure to take prisoners insured that thousands of comrades would also be killed by an enemy now forced to dig in and fight to the death. It is also a fact that as the war wore on and defeat became certain, more and more Japanese soldiers would have gladly surrendered if only they could.

    “If men had been allowed to surrender honorably,” admitted one Japanese veteran late in the war, “everybody would have been doing it.”
     

    “Lying across the [air]strip were dozens of dead Japs… As our officer crossed in the vanguard a Jap, apparently wounded, cried out for help. The officer walked over to aid him, and as he did the Jap sprang to life and hurled a grenade which wounded him in the face. From then on the only good Jap was a dead one, and although they tried the same trick again and again throughout the campaign, they were dispatched before they had time to use their grenade. “Our policy was to watch any apparent dead, shoot at the slightest sign of life and stab with bayonet even the ones who appeared to be rotten. It was all out from then on, neither side showing any quarter and no prisoners were taken.”
    – Sergeant Arthur Traill, 2/12th Infantry Battalion, Australian Army.

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  161. @Reg Cæsar
    I've seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture. I'm sure many Germans have used "Drei-und-Zwanzig und Mich" and other such services; do the results bear this theory out?

    I've also counted at least seven football clubs in the Rheinland which call themselves "Borussia", the Latin name for Prussia, including two in the first division in Dortmund and Mönchengladbach. Parts of this region were attached to the Prussian empire for a time before the 1870 unification (when most of today's football clubs were founded), as Franconia was to Bavaria, but they kept their local identity.

    The tour guide at the Residenz in Würzburg told us (in German, in 2001) that, while the city has been officially part of Bavaria for two centuries, "wir sind noch Franken im Herzen." So why would Kaiser-era Rhinelanders embrace Prussia in such a way? My grade school classmates in early-statehood Hawaii were proud to be full Americans finally, but they had no illusions they were mainlanders. And they wouldn't want to be.

    >slavs
    Maybe some mixture (West Poles were considered almost-German by the Nazis) but surely most of them are Germans. Germany cranked out a massive amount of people and the DDR was on solidly historically German territory.
    >football club
    Same reason we named our university sports teams after Indians with warlike reputations?

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  162. @CK
    So we are looking for a Korean Ramón Mercader?
    Because as has been proven so often: No man, no problem. Although Stalin is still dead.
    But
    we would have to also assume that the North Korean people dislike the Kim family of which no evidence is presented. ( Defectors, Quislings and McCains are not evidence of a widespread distaste for a leader )

    Is there some upcoming Nork state visit to a poorly defended compound in suburban Mexico City I am not aware of? If your man behaves anything like Ramon Mercader did around the Nork security services then I think you should pick a different historical model, say, Czolgosz.
    A chance to recommend two excellent related things: the stunningly good Assassination of Trotsky starring Richard Burton, Alain Delon, and Romy Schneider, and the book The Mind of an Assassin by Isaac Don Levine. I had a copy of that for fifty cents and gave it away; I see on Amazon they want twenty-five dollars for it.

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  163. @Reg Cæsar

    Inevitably, “reunification” would create a land border between the U.S. and Chinese empires.

     

    Sometime in the GHWB Administration I had dinner with a bunch of international students, including one hardcore Chinese girl and at least one or two Korean guys. She actually tried to tell them that Korea truly was an integral part of China, like Taiwan and Tibet and so forth. They were gobsmacked, but didn't want to escalate, and just did the Korean equivalent of rolling their eyes.

    Promising/threatening to make the North a province of China might, as Dr Johnson said about impending execution, concentrate the mind wonderfully.

    In the 1930s, Mao was asked about the territorial limits of the post-revolutionary China he sought.

    Mao answered that the new China would include all the traditional Chinese territories of the Qing dynasty, except, of course, Korea and Taiwan(!) both of which could remain parts of the Japanese empire.

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  164. @Svigor

    If the South Koreans were especially nationalistic

    1/ there would be a huge objection to all those US troops on their territory even if that meant being absorbed by their Northern cousins.

    2/ they would have a national religion

    3/ they would invent proof that various great non-Koreans were really Koreans as well as ‘proof’ that various inventions were rally Korean inventions

     

    If the Koreans weren't especially nationalistic

    1. There would be no Korea. Only more China.

    I have my doubts. If the Koreans were especially nationalistic, they would defend all their borders not just the northern one, and they would defend their public sphere.

    Instead they let a million foreigners into their country in a decade, among then hundreds of thousands of Chinese who are an obvious threat to independence, plus tens of thousands of Muslims who have consummately demonstrated their lack of aptitude at modern civilization-building in their homelands

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Korea

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreigners_in_Korea#Statistics

    And their cinemas show blatant propaganda encouraging impressionable young women to mate with those Muslim migrants while portraying local men as jobless losers and abusive bosses

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/art/2009/06/141_47069.html

    South Korea’s not as far gone as Western Europe, but judging from what I can see ten thousand miles away, they’re on the same trajectory and their elites are 110% committed to catching up.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    If the Koreans were especially nationalistic, they would defend all their borders not just the northern one, and they would defend their public sphere.

    Instead they let a million foreigners into their country in a decade, among then hundreds of thousands of Chinese who are an obvious threat to independence
     
    You got that right. The most popular honeymoon/vacation destination in South Korea is the island of Jeju, which has a unique culture (and dialect and, completely unrelatedly, excellent pheasant hunting). Much of Jeju's commercial buildings are now Chinese-owned, to the grumblings of the local residents. Would a national government that is "xenophobic" let this happen?
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  165. @bb.
    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn't agree that it was necessarily 'irresponsible'. I might be wrong, but aren't the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there? Aren't the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet? I can imagine that could be the cornerstone of any future talks between them - ''hey, we might not see eye to eye on many thing but at least we agree on the important stuff, like we hate everyone else equally - especially the goddamn japs'' - as such, I can imagine keeping the nukes to be a possible (suitable) concession by the Souths, with a promises to the international community to deal with them...eventually. Eventually can take a long time.

    I think it ultimately comes down to ambition - and I don't know what their ambitions are, but they have all the prerequisites to become a bona fide world power. With the Souths superior tech they could leapfrog to high end ICBMs in short time - all the hardware, technical infrastructure and test sites are already in place in the North - just needs upgrades. Russia could be a potential ally in this regard - they could hedge their position against China in the long run with an rich and armed (swiss like) neighbor.

    Aren’t the Koreans at large possibly the most xenophobic nation on the planet?

    North Koreans are in the running for that title, yes. South Koreans? Heck no.

    It is true that it would be legally hard to keep them, but I wouldn’t agree that it was necessarily ‘irresponsible’.

    It would be stupid and irresponsible in the extreme to abrogate its agreements with the U.S., anger China, and alarm Japan to become a nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles power for South Korea. These are only the largest trading partners for South Korea which depends on trade for prosperity.

    I might be wrong, but aren’t the SKoreans like really fed up with the Americans there?

    Yes, you are wrong. Koreans have a perennial love-hate relationship with their American uncle. Half the country hates the idea of the Yankees on its soil, the other half is just so grateful to uncle… which is to say, that it is a politically divided country, rather like… the United States in this regard.

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  166. @J. Dart
    I have my doubts. If the Koreans were especially nationalistic, they would defend all their borders not just the northern one, and they would defend their public sphere.

    Instead they let a million foreigners into their country in a decade, among then hundreds of thousands of Chinese who are an obvious threat to independence, plus tens of thousands of Muslims who have consummately demonstrated their lack of aptitude at modern civilization-building in their homelands
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Korea
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreigners_in_Korea#Statistics

    And their cinemas show blatant propaganda encouraging impressionable young women to mate with those Muslim migrants while portraying local men as jobless losers and abusive bosses
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/art/2009/06/141_47069.html

    South Korea's not as far gone as Western Europe, but judging from what I can see ten thousand miles away, they're on the same trajectory and their elites are 110% committed to catching up.

    If the Koreans were especially nationalistic, they would defend all their borders not just the northern one, and they would defend their public sphere.

    Instead they let a million foreigners into their country in a decade, among then hundreds of thousands of Chinese who are an obvious threat to independence

    You got that right. The most popular honeymoon/vacation destination in South Korea is the island of Jeju, which has a unique culture (and dialect and, completely unrelatedly, excellent pheasant hunting). Much of Jeju’s commercial buildings are now Chinese-owned, to the grumblings of the local residents. Would a national government that is “xenophobic” let this happen?

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  167. @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    I think Twinkie is happily married. But even if he is not, I don't think he would consider 'shopping for one' as a preferred strategy for locating a soulmate.

    I think Twinkie is happily married. But even if he is not, I don’t think he would consider ‘shopping for one’ as a preferred strategy for locating a soulmate.

    Indeed, I am and have been for a quarter century to a lovely flower of the heartland who bore for me a large brood.

    And I don’t think “Karl” gets what “Twinkie” means in this context.

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  168. @Jefferson
    "Given the spiking numbers of “international” marriages and births of mixed children, it’s hard to sustain the claim that South Koreans are particularly nationalistic. Its government has been promoting “globalization” for a couple of decades now, and the younger generation is very internationally-oriented."

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind. Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.

    So many Korean women in The U.S are coal burners, especially in California. So they are definitely not the most racially tribal when it comes to sticking to their own kind.

    Koreans born in America (and not just women) have very high rates of out-marriage. But the vast majority is to whites, not blacks.

    Korean Michelle Rhee is married to a Black man who is the mayor of Sacramento and Wesley Snipes has a Korean wife. Korean actresses Jamie Chung and Arden Cho have also done films where they had sex scenes with Black guys.

    You seem, let’s say, a tad obsessive about this topic.

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  169. @Chrisnonymous
    Since I'm currently in Asia, I got to see the Switzerland-vs-Korea women's hockey game live on TV. The Swiss really dominated as the 8-0 shut-out suggests. The Swiss women were truly a joy to behold: fast and agile skaters, great stick handling, well-developed and executed plays, and aggressive. To boot, they were pretty and appeared to be wearing makeup too. I have no idea what expectations were for the Korean team, but they never stood a chance in that match-up.

    South Korea has ZERO tradition of ice hockey, so it’s not surprising that it’d lose to every team in the Olympics. Why, they are even importing whites to fill their men’s team: https://globalnews.ca/news/3938226/canadians-hockey-south-korea-2018-olympic-games/

    South Korea’s best event in the Winter Olympics is the short track, in which they have won the vast majority of their winter medals (something like 40+ out of 50-some).

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  170. @German_reader
    Not really imo, neither East Germany nor West Germany were historically homogenous regions (East Germany included the remaining core territories of Prussia, but also Saxony which had had its own king until 1918, and Thuringia also had its own identity; and West Germany was even more diverse). The East-West divide as it is today really is mostly due to the 1945-1990 era imo. There's also a North-South divide in Germany which in some ways is more natural and deeper imo. Alternative history is difficult to do right, but I don't think the East-West split as it is today was in any way inevitable or a natural consequence of pre-1945 history.

    Genetic studies bears this out. Germans of different regions are shifted toward their non-German neighbors. Germany as a nation-state is most definitely a cultural and historical construct, not a ethno-biological one.

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    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    There is some truth to it, but I think the big problem is that it really would be two separate nations instead of just one. Regarding the neighbors, I think it’s more symmetrical, with especially large number of Germanic genes in France.
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  171. @Twinkie
    Genetic studies bears this out. Germans of different regions are shifted toward their non-German neighbors. Germany as a nation-state is most definitely a cultural and historical construct, not a ethno-biological one.

    There is some truth to it, but I think the big problem is that it really would be two separate nations instead of just one. Regarding the neighbors, I think it’s more symmetrical, with especially large number of Germanic genes in France.

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  172. A nuclear armed unified Korea dominated by the North (or not) would pose an existential threat to Japan. They would nuke up – if they haven’t already.

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  173. @jesse helms think-alike
    Regarding the example of South Africa:

    Apartheid South Africa did have nuclear weapons but of course always denied that they did just as the Zionist entity does to this day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

    The South Africa nukes were apparently tested perhaps in joint tests with Israel.
    US satellites detected disturbances in the atmosphere in the Southern Indian Ocean consistent with nuclear detonations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident

    At the fall of white rule in South Africa the apartheid government agreed that all the nuclear material would be removed for safekeeping by the United States. This happened prior to the turnover of power. Someone perhaps thought a leader in the mold of Jacob Zuma with nukes wasn't a good fit.

    A reporter asked one of the apartheid officials responsible for the nuclear weapons: why would you want to have these weapons in the first place. He answered that they never intended to use them -
    that their development was the result of an optimistic can-do attitude. True or BS it is a sign of how technologically advanced the SA's were. Not merely in this, in 1967 Christiaan Barnard beat the Americans in the race to achieve the first successful heart transplant.

    The South Africans would have used nukes against a massed Soviet/East German/Cuban tank assault against South Africa itself. They would have detonated one device (in fact, they planned to do so in 1977 but backed off from Jimmy Carter’s threats) first to demonstrate that capability, thereby hoping to draw in the US/Nato countries into an effort to deter the Soviet move.

    Obviously, nukes would have been no use in controlling urban riots as per 1976.

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  174. I’m surprised the nuke angle wasn’t pressed by Trump with China. Bonus: Japan also has to get nukes if South Korea gets nukes.

    I don’t see how South Korea would not want nukes, unless they’re totally weak cowards like Duterte of the Philippines, who will do whatever China says and pray the Chinese don’t abuse their overwhelmingly powerful position. They’ve taken most of the Philippines valuable offshore territory. It’s over barring a war or a once in 100,000 year tidal wave or typhoon.

    Now if it were Vietnam, they’d be working on first-strike capabilities.

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    • Replies: @anonymous
    As someone who lives in the Philippines, not one of us would call Duterte "weak." Its simply that he prioritizes the elimination of endemic crime and corruption and the promotion of the life of the general citizen well over fighting over ocean waters.

    Its not hard to get him to align to the US; As he noted himself, the US only gives weapons, not aid. If the US is willing to invest anything comparable at all into the infrastructure of country, decrease street level corruption, and stop the meth dealers, then it would fall back into the US orbit. As it is, the US isn't willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol

    From your vantage point, the "offshore territory" matter. From the vantage point of someone in the Phillipines, not having to deal with violent drug addicts and not getting extorted by the police because you walked down the wrong alley matters far more. Why don't you live somewhere where the "pulis" yell at you and beat you up for $20 and fear for your life from the drug gangs(who might actually be more law and orderly than the police!), find a leader who actually cares and fixes that while building actual new public transit, while some idiots online in a land of America tell you that "offshore waters" matter more.

    That said, I know a friend from Tennesee who moved here and who said that the meth problem is not much better in his small town either. So no wonder you can't help us with our problems. You need Duterte, but you're too busy minding the "offshore territory."

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  175. @KM32
    when has the U.S. won a war against a country that was even remotely evenly matched? Say, 1945 (and only because the Russians softened ‘em up). . .

    Don't forget 1865.

    I wouldn't count on the U.S. to roll over. When we've faced a real power, we've shown in Atlanta and Dresden and Hiroshima that we'll use some real scorched earth tactics. We fight down to our competition.

    We couldn’t win the Korean war the first time around, Vietnam was pathetic, and our campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq appear to be totally ineffectual in accomplishing anything useful for the national interest. We have had two generations of weaklings, and they keep making them softer and softer. Pretty soon, the Stay-Puff Marshmellow Man, who identifies as a woman and wears a skirt, will be leading us into combat.

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  176. @Anonymous
    I don't really exactly know the facts here, but I'm under the impression that the white South African government was sorta kinda on the way to nukes, but that the "democratic, multiracial" SA government gave this up. That's hopeful, in a way, if true.

    As other commenters have pointed out, SA’s nuclear weapons were given up by the last white government. In other words, they dismantled their nuclear arsenal so that it wouldn’t fall into the hands of a black-run government.

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  177. anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Orthodox
    I'm surprised the nuke angle wasn't pressed by Trump with China. Bonus: Japan also has to get nukes if South Korea gets nukes.

    I don't see how South Korea would not want nukes, unless they're totally weak cowards like Duterte of the Philippines, who will do whatever China says and pray the Chinese don't abuse their overwhelmingly powerful position. They've taken most of the Philippines valuable offshore territory. It's over barring a war or a once in 100,000 year tidal wave or typhoon.

    Now if it were Vietnam, they'd be working on first-strike capabilities.

    As someone who lives in the Philippines, not one of us would call Duterte “weak.” Its simply that he prioritizes the elimination of endemic crime and corruption and the promotion of the life of the general citizen well over fighting over ocean waters.

    Its not hard to get him to align to the US; As he noted himself, the US only gives weapons, not aid. If the US is willing to invest anything comparable at all into the infrastructure of country, decrease street level corruption, and stop the meth dealers, then it would fall back into the US orbit. As it is, the US isn’t willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol

    From your vantage point, the “offshore territory” matter. From the vantage point of someone in the Phillipines, not having to deal with violent drug addicts and not getting extorted by the police because you walked down the wrong alley matters far more. Why don’t you live somewhere where the “pulis” yell at you and beat you up for $20 and fear for your life from the drug gangs(who might actually be more law and orderly than the police!), find a leader who actually cares and fixes that while building actual new public transit, while some idiots online in a land of America tell you that “offshore waters” matter more.

    That said, I know a friend from Tennesee who moved here and who said that the meth problem is not much better in his small town either. So no wonder you can’t help us with our problems. You need Duterte, but you’re too busy minding the “offshore territory.”

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    • Replies: @Disordered
    Good points. And re: your last sentence, I'd argue Americans voted Trump to get their own Duterte (even if they disagree on methods).

    And yeah to be honest dollar diplomacy is the only thing that works to make the US look good to the Third World, all the "democracy-building missions" or whatever are perceived as imperialism. That said, the aid usually gets lost in local governments; and in the past, several governments asked for way too many loans from the US for the sake of being allies, which ended up in local backlash. So it's not like the US just sends dollars and things are perfect, such deals have to be planned properly. Same for free trade agreements, they tend to benefit the import/export local elite at the expense of peasants and workers. So these have to be written better - but not ignored either, as most of the 3rd World countries who went too left and anti-trading with the US tend to regret it...

    , @snorlax
    Ah yes, the US never built any infrastructure, cleaned up government or stopped drug dealers in the Philippines.

    As it is, the US isn’t willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol
     
    The US gave $450,170,148 to the Philippines in 2016, of which 69% was civilian aid and 31% military. Does that qualify as "even a pittance" in your book? Haha indeed.

    Apparently this extraordinary generosity on the part of we the American taxpayers is not enough. Do you want us to wipe your ass for you, too? Perhaps you would prefer remaining a colony—it's worked out pretty great for Puerto Rico! And it might save on our end of the bargain too; the US subsidy to the Philippines in 1939 was $12 million, or a mere $213 million in 2018 dollars.

    As you so astutely point out, that money, coming out of my paycheck, could be better spent on entitled ingrates here at home. It's not even a pittance, so you'll hardly miss it. Enjoy your much more altruistic new Chinese friends.

    A more cynical man might note that America's racial ideology is "everyone else > Americans" versus the Chinese racial ideology of "Chinese > everyone else," so you might want to think a little harder about your long-term interests—but not I. More power to ya, champ. God bless.
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  178. @Reg Cæsar
    I've seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture. I'm sure many Germans have used "Drei-und-Zwanzig und Mich" and other such services; do the results bear this theory out?

    I've also counted at least seven football clubs in the Rheinland which call themselves "Borussia", the Latin name for Prussia, including two in the first division in Dortmund and Mönchengladbach. Parts of this region were attached to the Prussian empire for a time before the 1870 unification (when most of today's football clubs were founded), as Franconia was to Bavaria, but they kept their local identity.

    The tour guide at the Residenz in Würzburg told us (in German, in 2001) that, while the city has been officially part of Bavaria for two centuries, "wir sind noch Franken im Herzen." So why would Kaiser-era Rhinelanders embrace Prussia in such a way? My grade school classmates in early-statehood Hawaii were proud to be full Americans finally, but they had no illusions they were mainlanders. And they wouldn't want to be.

    I’ve seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture.

    Sure, the area east of the Elbe was only Germanized from the 12th century onwards (there was a crusade against the still pagan Slavs…), there’s no doubt that the population of East Germany is descended to a significant degree from Germanized Slavs. You’ve got all those place names ending in -itz which show it once was Slav country, and genetic testing has confirmed demographic continuity…which of course makes Nazi views of Slavs as racially inferior all the more bizarre.
    It’s funny you mention Franconia, I grew up there, near the former border with the GDR. And yes, it definitely isn’t “real” Bavaria, despite having been part of Bavaria for two centuries.

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    • Replies: @polskijoe
    Remember that tribes were moving all the time.
    When the Romans fell, the Germans moved.
    They also moved to UK and elsewhere.
    The Slavics also moved.

    The tribes which probably been Germanized were Obotrites, Veleti, Hevelli. (some of them during Ostsiedlung). Only some Sorbs might remain.

    Some Poles have Nordic/Germanic input.
    Some Germans have Polish/Slavic input.
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  179. @Anon
    Korean nationalism isn't real. It's a crutch for butt-hurt feelings of inferiority. Because of the obsessive focus on status-ism, Koreans lack appreciation for humanism. Gain a bit of status, they put on airs. And because of a toxic kind of familism, the question is "Is it good for my kids?" They will do anything to favor the kids. They are like Sicilians in this way. So, there was Nut Rage in South Korea and the Kim clan in the North. Spoiled brats raised by parents who put kids uber alles.
    Look at fatso Kim in a nation of starving people. He's not just chubby but fatty fat.

    It's easy to control Koreans if you understand the psychology. Their nationalism is just a defense mechanism. It's not real pride. In contrast, Jews, even under Roman rule, had immense pride as Jews. In contrast, Koreans prop up nationalism when they feel rejected or snubbed by the world. And they tend to exaggerate their national greatness. NK propaganda would have people believe that people around the world are inspired by teachings of Kim. A total joke. And SK will exaggerate achievements of Korean history while denying the key role Japan played in modernization of Korea.

    Because Korean nationalism is a bogus crutch, there is an easy way to make Koreans betray their nation and people for something else. Just flatter them. Tell them they are so 'cool' and 'advanced' and an important partner in UN and with US, and their defenses melt. Gee, they've been allowed into the Big Boy's Club. All of a sudden, they are loyal slobbering dogs. Ian Buruma in God's Dust was right about Korean butt-hurt character. It's due to lack of true nationalism and true humanism. Having played role of little dog to big dog China, status-ism and petty kind of familism trump all. If you massage but hurt-butt of Koreans, they are babies full of smiles.

    If Koreans had a humanist culture, they would value their culture/history simply because it's a story of people. And that should be enough. But status-madness makes for obsession to be accepted and approved by bigger powers. Koreans feel they have no value unless recognized by the world. And if not recognized, they must inflate and exaggerate their own self-importance. Or, if envious of Japan, they'll say everything Japanese originated in Korea.

    It's like Korean-Americans turning pro-Diversity the minute they get in because they are now part of the Winners Club. Also, Korean familism is not like good hearty family values. Rather, it's petty obsession to make one's own kid rise higher so that one can show off to other families. When Americans hear that kids of other families have done well, they feel generous of heart, and this is the good side of American character. When Koreans hear that other kids have done better than their own kids, they just feel resentment.

    One good thing about Japanese colonization and the hellish war was it leveled old Korean hierarchies. Rich became poor, and class distinctions vanished for many, and everyone was in the same boat. This was the humanist moment, as with Japan after WWII. Kurosawa's films are morally informed by this period. Already by BAD SLEEP WELL and HIGH AND LOW, the old hierarchy is back. In HIGH AND LOW, the rich man has to struggle to see his chauffeur's son as member of the same community and nation. SEVEN SAMURAI are about masterless samurai learning to serve the people than follow the path of status and vanity. (Mao, he took this logic too far. Sending professors to clean pigpens maybe wasn't the best use of mental capital in backward China.)

    Now, economic development is good, and who the hell wants universal poverty? But in East Asia where hierarchy has been so toxic, the rise of the new class of rich led to another round of snobbery. The whole thing about dirty-dangerous-demeaning job began in Japan and spread to Korea and other richer Asian nations. Modern Japan was made by people working in factories and with their hands, but so many Japanese now see those jobs as lowly. Japanese will not have kids unless they can be sure of sending their kids to best schools. Koreans and Taiwanese are the same way. They are ashamed to have kids who do 'dirty' jobs. So, increasing they rely on foreigners. Once foreigners become associated with 'dirty' jobs, the natives want those jobs even less. So, both Japan and SK have high suicide rates. Better death than 'dirty job' associated with lowly foreigners. SK is worse off than Japan because SK elites are educated in US, which means they suck up all the PC. So, on the one hand, SK depends on more foreign labor because they see manual jobs as too lowly for Koreans. Immigration is premised on Koreans being too good for those jobs. But at the same time, the PC-ized Kors attack Koreans for not accepting these foreigners as fellow Kors. What a contradiction. "We need foreigners because we Kors are too good for dirty jobs. But shame on us for not treating foreigners as our equals." But then, this sounds like the US too where the Coming Apart scenario is leading to status-obsession. Indeed, the elites don't really care for foreigners and equality. It's just status-virtue-signaling for those who are obsessed about privilege and do ANYTHING to send their kids to best schools to meet with right kind of people.

    Globalism and mass immigration is supposed to be about equality, but it drives a wedge between native elites and native masses. During the New Deal, there was a sense of white America as one, from top to bottom. Now, top elements of White America look upon lower half of white America as deplorable. And the likes of Pelosi and Bush invoke Diversity to mask their own privilege. So, their snubbing of American working class is justified because Jeb married a brown midget and Pelosi's grandkid wants to larp as Guatemalan lettuce picker. Yeah, Marie Antoinette sometimes played at being a shepherdess.

    As for NK mess, it can be resolved IF Kors control their real history. US divided Korea and gave half to Stalin. Jews know their own history, but Kors are too chicken to face up to reality. If Kors mention the truth, it puts US on the moral defensive because (1) US had fully supported Japanese colonization (2) made a mess of liberation by giving half to Stalin (3) used worst kind of diplomacy to trigger Korean War -- declaring to the world that it won't protect South Korea and then reversing course (4) committing what can only be called mass murder by indiscriminate bombing in NK. (Also, as rotten as Kim's stalinism was, there was nothing wrong with him wanting to unify his country. If foreign powers forcibly divided US in half, would it be wrong for one side to reunify the nation?) But SK elites were shills of the US. And out of fear of NK, they played toady to NK. As for the retarded Korean left, many of them were mindless admirers of NK, a stalinist creation. And after the fall of the Cold War, the new left just imitate all the self-destructive policies of the West. Statusism comes into play. Since the West is still the richest and most prestigious part of the world, the thing is to follow the West. If the West is committing mass suicide and going over the cliff, then Kors must follow too. Indeed, even anti-white-ism among Kors is imitation of the White Norm. That dummy who works for Donna Zuckerberg learned to be anti-white from whites because white self-hatred is the new norm in the West.

    Anyway, if SK wants ease of tensions with NK, it first has to pressure the US to stop using it as a pawn. And to do this, SK has to mention the history and make the US feel responsible for the creation of NK. In other words, Kors didn't choose Kim and division. US divided the nation and gave half to Stalin. So, for the US to bitch about evil NK is ludicrous.
    But SK elites cannot state this simple fact because they are whores of US power.Also, they are cowards. With double the population of NK and 40x the economy, you'd think they'd be able to defend themselves like tiny Israel defends itself from all rivals. But no, the soyboy cowards still wet their pants and hide behind uncle sam.

    Trump and Pence are full of shi*, but since NK is nuts and SK is craven and cowardly, maybe if Trump can pull off a successful regime change in NK, maybe he'll have done more good simply by creating new possibilities. When there are so many lies, maybe a boor who just smashes things and makes new things happen is a kind of idiot-savant-savior. The current impasse is due to so many layers of historical lies. When no one tells the truth and the air is filled with lies, maybe the guy who smashes the door and windows is just what we need.

    You sure?

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  180. @Chrisnonymous
    I take exception to your comments on Americans. I would say that most Americans simply don't think about overseas commitments in general, nevermind our relationship with Japan. To the extent that Americans have any impressions of the Japanese, they don't really think of them as warlike. That characterizes people who are in their 60s or 70s and older, but young people are as likely to associate Japan with crazy YouTube videos. Also, there were lots of prisoners in WWII. When the war ended, there was a demobilization of Japanese across Asia, and the US oversaw their processing and repatriation. They weren't slaughtered or brutalized. Your implications about the US character are undeserved.

    Also, Japanese communists are not like the CPUSA was, and people I know here are uneasy with the North Korean situation.

    Overall, my sense is that, while reliance on American protection and opposition to nuclear weapons is widespread, it is also quite shallow, based as it is--as so many things are here--on unreflective consensus.

    Agreed, as a millennial I really cannot picture the Japanese of today, with their cosplays and tendency to overwork in quiet cubicles until they die alone or commit suicide, as warlike people.
    Though I’d argue that the uneasiness about NK’s nukes must get old, just like eventually both Soviets and Americans grew out of the nuclear holocaust fear of the 50s. Not to say that precautions shouldn’t be taken, but when playing with nukes every side knows there’s no winner; so actual engaging must get tiring.

    Regarding the hypothetical, I think a united Korea would make China park tons of missiles and troops across the border, and build a wall that might put Trump’s to shame. This might also make Japan allow for a defensive military buildup. If Japan remains too pacifist and doesn’t want nukes too, then at least there would be a commitment to remain Korea’s ally, which would have to be brokered by Daddy US of cour$e.

    In reality, I doubt the Kim regime ever falls. If Fidel died and Cuba remains commie (if moving in the Vietnam NEP direction), I can’t imagine a quite fiercer dictator family giving up – not without mass “struggle sessions”. If anything, at least Trump does not drink the Kool-Aid and knows that NK can’t be dealt with, just ignored and threatened with rhetoric until they extend an olive branch – as is happening in the Winter Olympics. Or idk, here’s hoping yet another complex foreign policy problem gets solved.

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  181. @anonymous
    As someone who lives in the Philippines, not one of us would call Duterte "weak." Its simply that he prioritizes the elimination of endemic crime and corruption and the promotion of the life of the general citizen well over fighting over ocean waters.

    Its not hard to get him to align to the US; As he noted himself, the US only gives weapons, not aid. If the US is willing to invest anything comparable at all into the infrastructure of country, decrease street level corruption, and stop the meth dealers, then it would fall back into the US orbit. As it is, the US isn't willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol

    From your vantage point, the "offshore territory" matter. From the vantage point of someone in the Phillipines, not having to deal with violent drug addicts and not getting extorted by the police because you walked down the wrong alley matters far more. Why don't you live somewhere where the "pulis" yell at you and beat you up for $20 and fear for your life from the drug gangs(who might actually be more law and orderly than the police!), find a leader who actually cares and fixes that while building actual new public transit, while some idiots online in a land of America tell you that "offshore waters" matter more.

    That said, I know a friend from Tennesee who moved here and who said that the meth problem is not much better in his small town either. So no wonder you can't help us with our problems. You need Duterte, but you're too busy minding the "offshore territory."

    Good points. And re: your last sentence, I’d argue Americans voted Trump to get their own Duterte (even if they disagree on methods).

    And yeah to be honest dollar diplomacy is the only thing that works to make the US look good to the Third World, all the “democracy-building missions” or whatever are perceived as imperialism. That said, the aid usually gets lost in local governments; and in the past, several governments asked for way too many loans from the US for the sake of being allies, which ended up in local backlash. So it’s not like the US just sends dollars and things are perfect, such deals have to be planned properly. Same for free trade agreements, they tend to benefit the import/export local elite at the expense of peasants and workers. So these have to be written better – but not ignored either, as most of the 3rd World countries who went too left and anti-trading with the US tend to regret it…

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  182. @jesse helms think-alike
    Regarding the example of South Africa:

    Apartheid South Africa did have nuclear weapons but of course always denied that they did just as the Zionist entity does to this day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

    The South Africa nukes were apparently tested perhaps in joint tests with Israel.
    US satellites detected disturbances in the atmosphere in the Southern Indian Ocean consistent with nuclear detonations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident

    At the fall of white rule in South Africa the apartheid government agreed that all the nuclear material would be removed for safekeeping by the United States. This happened prior to the turnover of power. Someone perhaps thought a leader in the mold of Jacob Zuma with nukes wasn't a good fit.

    A reporter asked one of the apartheid officials responsible for the nuclear weapons: why would you want to have these weapons in the first place. He answered that they never intended to use them -
    that their development was the result of an optimistic can-do attitude. True or BS it is a sign of how technologically advanced the SA's were. Not merely in this, in 1967 Christiaan Barnard beat the Americans in the race to achieve the first successful heart transplant.

    Someone perhaps thought a leader in the mold of Jacob Zuma with nukes wasn’t a good fit

    Ah, but the effects of nuclear explosives can be cured by throwing a hand grenade at a virgin. So it wasn’t as dire as it appears.

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  183. @reiner Tor

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes.
     
    That's a possibility, but far from a certainty. The North Korean population has known that they are far behind the rest of the world for the past couple of decades. They now live better than ever before. Or at least, used to live better than ever before, until the sanctions started to bite last year. It's far from clear if they blame the regime for the sanctions or the US, or their big brother China, or South Koreans, or someone else. Meanwhile, the nuclear program probably does give the regime some legitimacy. And at least the top leadership (including Kim himself) is as willing to use violence to prop up its rule as ever.

    It’s precisely because they live better than never before and are suddenly hit by the sanctions that the new small business class there will probably dislike anything that encourages more sanctions. That said, you are right in that society would be divided between those that blame Kim and those who would side with him. Then again, if what commentator Peter Akuleyev says about the information wall cracking up is right, then the pro-freedom ones would have the advantage. Wouldn’t surprise me, economic development eventually leads to the end of autarchy. And, even if Kim and his nukes remain, he would probably have to allow some slight degree of liberalization eventually, like Raul Castro did… or not, who knows. After all, the Party feeds dissidents to dogs…

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    As I wrote, the information wall has cracked up some two decades ago, so that’s hardly a new development. Then there’s the rally around the flag effect.
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  184. @The Z Blog

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.
     
    That same line of reasoning was popular in the 1980's, with regards to the Soviets. In the end, it was the application of pressure on several fronts that caused the regime to crack.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.

    Another example would be Cuba post-Fidel (I assume after brother Raul is dead that the military will take over, perhaps not democratize but probably normalize somewhat like Vietnam).

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  185. @eah

    In the land of the 5 fingered kleptomaniacs, the 6 fingered man will be king.

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  186. @Disordered
    It's precisely because they live better than never before and are suddenly hit by the sanctions that the new small business class there will probably dislike anything that encourages more sanctions. That said, you are right in that society would be divided between those that blame Kim and those who would side with him. Then again, if what commentator Peter Akuleyev says about the information wall cracking up is right, then the pro-freedom ones would have the advantage. Wouldn't surprise me, economic development eventually leads to the end of autarchy. And, even if Kim and his nukes remain, he would probably have to allow some slight degree of liberalization eventually, like Raul Castro did... or not, who knows. After all, the Party feeds dissidents to dogs...

    As I wrote, the information wall has cracked up some two decades ago, so that’s hardly a new development. Then there’s the rally around the flag effect.

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  187. @The Z Blog

    It is an odd time to pursue a hawkish strategy towards North Korea, it is only a matter of time until the regime implodes. The question is how to manage that implosion with minimum civilian deaths and minimum Chinese interference.
     
    That same line of reasoning was popular in the 1980's, with regards to the Soviets. In the end, it was the application of pressure on several fronts that caused the regime to crack.

    My guess for North Korea is that it ends something like Romania. A combination of forces puts an end to the ruling family and it slowly evolves into a normal country, but remains independent.

    The Soviets broke because leadership just passed into the hands of the reformist faction after the death of Brezhnev. After Andropov died, the anti-reformists tried to push back with Chernenko; but he, too, died quickly, and power passed to Gorbachev. (He was the protégé and designated successor of Andropov, because already Andropov wanted reforms.) He tried to reform the system. Which was essentially impossible to reform. So the system crashed.

    It had very little to do with what the Americans did, though the fact that Reagan was willing to negotiate with Gorbachev and become friendlier with him helped him a lot. Maybe a truly confrontational Reagan could’ve preserved for us the great Soviet Union.

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  188. @German_reader

    I’ve seen the suggestion that much of the East German population were (going way, way back) really just Slavs that over time adopted the German language and culture.
     
    Sure, the area east of the Elbe was only Germanized from the 12th century onwards (there was a crusade against the still pagan Slavs...), there's no doubt that the population of East Germany is descended to a significant degree from Germanized Slavs. You've got all those place names ending in -itz which show it once was Slav country, and genetic testing has confirmed demographic continuity...which of course makes Nazi views of Slavs as racially inferior all the more bizarre.
    It's funny you mention Franconia, I grew up there, near the former border with the GDR. And yes, it definitely isn't "real" Bavaria, despite having been part of Bavaria for two centuries.

    Remember that tribes were moving all the time.
    When the Romans fell, the Germans moved.
    They also moved to UK and elsewhere.
    The Slavics also moved.

    The tribes which probably been Germanized were Obotrites, Veleti, Hevelli. (some of them during Ostsiedlung). Only some Sorbs might remain.

    Some Poles have Nordic/Germanic input.
    Some Germans have Polish/Slavic input.

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  189. @anonymous
    As someone who lives in the Philippines, not one of us would call Duterte "weak." Its simply that he prioritizes the elimination of endemic crime and corruption and the promotion of the life of the general citizen well over fighting over ocean waters.

    Its not hard to get him to align to the US; As he noted himself, the US only gives weapons, not aid. If the US is willing to invest anything comparable at all into the infrastructure of country, decrease street level corruption, and stop the meth dealers, then it would fall back into the US orbit. As it is, the US isn't willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol

    From your vantage point, the "offshore territory" matter. From the vantage point of someone in the Phillipines, not having to deal with violent drug addicts and not getting extorted by the police because you walked down the wrong alley matters far more. Why don't you live somewhere where the "pulis" yell at you and beat you up for $20 and fear for your life from the drug gangs(who might actually be more law and orderly than the police!), find a leader who actually cares and fixes that while building actual new public transit, while some idiots online in a land of America tell you that "offshore waters" matter more.

    That said, I know a friend from Tennesee who moved here and who said that the meth problem is not much better in his small town either. So no wonder you can't help us with our problems. You need Duterte, but you're too busy minding the "offshore territory."

    Ah yes, the US never built any infrastructure, cleaned up government or stopped drug dealers in the Philippines.

    As it is, the US isn’t willing to spare even a pittance to help. $500k? $600k? Anything? lol

    The US gave $450,170,148 to the Philippines in 2016, of which 69% was civilian aid and 31% military. Does that qualify as “even a pittance” in your book? Haha indeed.

    Apparently this extraordinary generosity on the part of we the American taxpayers is not enough. Do you want us to wipe your ass for you, too? Perhaps you would prefer remaining a colony—it’s worked out pretty great for Puerto Rico! And it might save on our end of the bargain too; the US subsidy to the Philippines in 1939 was $12 million, or a mere $213 million in 2018 dollars.

    As you so astutely point out, that money, coming out of my paycheck, could be better spent on entitled ingrates here at home. It’s not even a pittance, so you’ll hardly miss it. Enjoy your much more altruistic new Chinese friends.

    A more cynical man might note that America’s racial ideology is “everyone else > Americans” versus the Chinese racial ideology of “Chinese > everyone else,” so you might want to think a little harder about your long-term interests—but not I. More power to ya, champ. God bless.

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