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Hybrid Forecasting Contest: Can You Predict Next Year's Headlines?
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I mean, besides:

Crops Rotting in the Fields
More Semi-Literate Immigrants Needed

Prof. Philip Tetlock is looking for volunteer players for another of his spook-sponsored competitions of your ability to forecast world events. It’s a follow up to Tetlock’s Good Judgment project, which I’ve often written about.

DOES (HUMAN + MACHINE) x GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTING = HYPERACCURACY?

The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) is a government-sponsored research program designed to test the limits of geopolitical forecasting. By combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting edge machine systems (including statistical models and algorithms), HFC will develop novel capabilities to help the U.S. Intelligence Community improve their forecasts in an increasingly uncertain world.

Be a part of this breakthrough research program and test your skills as a forecaster while helping to develop systems that could produce the most accurate forecasts ever.

Here’s my 2016 review in Taki’s Magazine of Tetlock’s frequent flier book Superforecasting.

 
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  1. Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Failing New York Times!
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/nyt?p=nyt
     
    Don't be silly. NYT is +37% YTD. That's a killer rate if you can predict it.
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  2. @anony-mouse
    The end of Israel!

    http://www.unz.com/ldinh/the-end-of-israel/

    https://data.oecd.org/israel.htm

    Hey, Unz, we need a new button.

    It’s the “Boring!” button.

    Read More
  3. newrouter says:

    “Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Speaking of hybridization, what might happen if you cross two flowers chosen at random, genetically, say a rose cultivar chosen solely for its name with one chosen for its date of introduction? Can the results be predicted, even roughly? It would save several years of trial and error if you could.

    How about with dogs? Brutus, meet Fluffy…
    , @Reg Cæsar

    “Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot”
     
    She'd miss. Even a target as big as that head of hers.

    PS, Newrouter: my other comment was directed at Steve and the forum as a whole, not you. Sorry for the confusion.
    , @Paul Jolliffe
    Even better:

    "Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self-inflicted gun shots to the head - in Fort Marcy Park"


    FIFY

  4. syonredux says:

    Meanwhile, Michael Moore is really happy:

    Trump’s America: The last days of White rule. It’s always a bitch to have to give up power you’ve held for 300 years

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    It's always a bitch to have to give up power you've held for 300 years…
     
    …or weight, Mr Moore.
    , @nebulafox
    Great conversion choice, Mike, Ramadan will do you much good. Just make sure not to binge during Iftar, OK?
  5. newrouter says:

    “Barack Obama files law suit, says 22nd Amend. has “disparate impact”

    Read More
  6. Ivy says:

    Parade of Horribles.
    Small war in Far East involving Norks (15%).
    Financial market panic if China/US trade war gets any traction (20%).
    In nod to SSC style, applied quick percentages.
    HFC style will require more time.

    Read More
  7. @newrouter
    "Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot"

    Speaking of hybridization, what might happen if you cross two flowers chosen at random, genetically, say a rose cultivar chosen solely for its name with one chosen for its date of introduction? Can the results be predicted, even roughly? It would save several years of trial and error if you could.

    How about with dogs? Brutus, meet Fluffy…

    Read More
  8. @syonredux
    Meanwhile, Michael Moore is really happy:

    Trump's America: The last days of White rule. It's always a bitch to have to give up power you've held for 300 years
     
    https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/896405382897258498

    It’s always a bitch to have to give up power you’ve held for 300 years…

    …or weight, Mr Moore.

    Read More
  9. @newrouter
    "Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot"

    “Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot”

    She’d miss. Even a target as big as that head of hers.

    PS, Newrouter: my other comment was directed at Steve and the forum as a whole, not you. Sorry for the confusion.

    Read More
  10. President Trump (The New York Gentile) trash talks Kim Jong-un (China’s Pit Bull) into throwing a chair (a nuclear-tipped missile).

    This gives The Gentile the excuse he needs to body slam the Pit Bull.

    Tens of millions of North Koreans rush China (The Asian Giant).

    Korea is united in opposition to China. Trump is a hero. China’s bluff is called. The Giant is surrounded.

    Brought to you by Linda McMahon.

    Read More
  11. In the new style of headline writing brought to us by the likes of Salon and Slate:

    “Whites Need To Stop Demonizing Immigrant Polygamists and Pedophiles of Color”

    Read More
  12. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Next year’s biggest headline will be:

    TRUMP STRONGLY SUPPORTS RUBIO’S COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION BILL IN SENATE

    Read More
  13. nebulafox says:
    @syonredux
    Meanwhile, Michael Moore is really happy:

    Trump's America: The last days of White rule. It's always a bitch to have to give up power you've held for 300 years
     
    https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/896405382897258498

    Great conversion choice, Mike, Ramadan will do you much good. Just make sure not to binge during Iftar, OK?

    Read More
  14. george says:

    I predict well dressed and coiffed white dude charged with murder for ramming crowd in Charlottesville with his brand new Dodge Charger turns out to be either fleeing the mob or scared. He most likely was unable to see what was in front of him due to sporadic attacks, floored it, and hit a similarly trapped but not moving car which caused a chain reaction as it hit other cars in front.

    I also predict the crowd was not on any pre planned route so police could not direct traffic away from them.

    Read More
  15. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    There will be a fallout in relations between U.S. and Canada due to major problems from being overrun with immigrants in Canada.
    Iraq allows Russian airbases and military operations.
    China threatens to attack South Korea.
    Major terror attacks in U.K. using drones.
    Russia annihilates hostile Ukrainian military bases and U.S.-provided weapons.
    There will be terror attack using radioactive substance in Europe.

    Read More
  16. “PARENTS COMPLAIN AFTER CHILDREN’S SCHOOL CELEBRATES PEDO PRIDE DAY”

    “BLACK RESIDENTS COMPLAIN NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES ARE GENTRIFYING THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD”

    “PARENTS OF ZIKA BABIES SAY PRESCHOOLS ARE MICROCEPHALOPHOBIC”

    “JOHN McCAIN, LINDSEY GRAHAM, MAXINE WATERS AND NANCY PELOSI ALL REELECTED IN LANDSLIDES”

    Read More
  17. I assume you could get a 99% score by copy/pasting this year’s headlines.

    Read More
  18. @newrouter
    "Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self inflicted gun shot"

    Even better:

    “Debbie Wasserman Schultz found dead, by self-inflicted gun shots to the head – in Fort Marcy Park”

    FIFY

    Read More
  19. biz says:

    Maryam el-Shabbazz, formerly Naomi Klein, Weds Maliik 13x, formerly Michael Moore, In Traditional Muslim Ceremony

    Read More
  20. Jack D says:

    JEFFERSON TO BE REPLACED BY MLK ON THE FIVE CENT COIN

    Jefferson Memorial to be renamed “Memorial to the African Diaspora”.

    If not next year then within the next 10.

    The logic of social justice demands that dead white male slaveholders can no longer be the symbols of our nation. That’s not who we are in the Current Year. After they are done clearing out the Confederates then it is on to the Constitution and the Revolution. Just as World War T followed the victory in World War G, this has to be the next step.

    Read More
    • Agree: BB753, Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I dont want MLK on the five cent coin. I want MM on the ten cent coin.
  21. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @anony-mouse
    Failing New York Times!

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/nyt?p=nyt

    See also:

    http://www.unz.com/article/an-obituary-of-the-new-york-times/

    Failing New York Times!

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/nyt?p=nyt

    Don’t be silly. NYT is +37% YTD. That’s a killer rate if you can predict it.

    Read More
  22. AM says:

    Just pull up any Onion article from the recent past. That will be next year’s headline.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    It would be fun to come up with an automated take on that and use it as an entry. Say look a certain number of years back and pick Onion articles that appear to match current trends.
  23. res says:
    @AM
    Just pull up any Onion article from the recent past. That will be next year's headline.

    It would be fun to come up with an automated take on that and use it as an entry. Say look a certain number of years back and pick Onion articles that appear to match current trends.

    Read More
  24. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Jack D
    JEFFERSON TO BE REPLACED BY MLK ON THE FIVE CENT COIN

    Jefferson Memorial to be renamed "Memorial to the African Diaspora".

    If not next year then within the next 10.

    The logic of social justice demands that dead white male slaveholders can no longer be the symbols of our nation. That's not who we are in the Current Year. After they are done clearing out the Confederates then it is on to the Constitution and the Revolution. Just as World War T followed the victory in World War G, this has to be the next step.

    I dont want MLK on the five cent coin. I want MM on the ten cent coin.

    Read More
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