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How the News Media Is Dulling Down RaperGate (Don't Mention the Catfishing!)
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Back on Wednesday a friend called to point out that the stunning Washington Post article by T. Rees Shapiro was written to make clear to people with good reading comprehension skills that Jackie’s concoction most likely involved her trying to make poor “Randall” jealous by catfishing suitor/rapist “Drew” into electronic existence using text messages. But, he pointed out, you can easily miss that if you aren’t a good reader; and the majority of the press will likely try to make this lurid story turn into a blurry mishmash so that few members of the public will notice and even fewer will remember what an absurd fiasco it all was.

You can see that developing this weekend with further interviews from other newslets with the three ex-friends that ignore the outrageous catfishing angle and instead concentrate on boring aspects of how the three ex-friends didn’t tell Jackie not to go to the cops and how Sabrina Rubin Erdely violated technical-sounding journalistic methodologies. For example, from late Sunday, here’s the Associated Press’s “Big Story:”

Friends say they pushed UVA ‘Jackie’ to call cops
By MATT STROUD
Dec. 14, 2014 11:32 PM EST

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (AP) — Three friends of an alleged victim of gang rape at a University of Virginia frat house say a magazine article wrongly portrayed them as uncaring students who were more concerned about their reputations than her well-being.

The friends told The Associated Press that the Rolling Stone article was wrong on a number of key points, especially its assertion that they urged the victim to not report the attack. …

None of the three friends was contacted by Rolling Stone’s reporter, Sabrina Rubin Erdely, before the article was published; each of them rejected multiple assertions made in the article, which has since been retracted.

All three say Erdely has since reached out to them, and that she has told them she is re-reporting the story.

I’ve been leaked the draft of Erdely’s “re-reported” article. Here it is in full:

Keep Calm and Oh, Look! A Squirrel!

Back to AP’s not-so-Big Story:

Hendley told the AP Erdely apologized to her for portraying her the way she did.

Erdely and Rolling Stone Managing Editor Will Dana did not respond to an email from The Associated Press on Sunday morning seeking comment.

[Yawn]

The three friends say they continue to work on correcting the record about what happened that night, and at least one, ["Randall"], wonders to what extent he believes the victim’s own version of what happened

This could be good!

— or whether any discrepancies in her story matter.

No, I guess it won’t be …

“People at U.Va. want answers just as much as I do,” Duffin ["Randall"] says.

“But if anything, the takeaway from all this is that I still don’t really care if what’s presented in this article is true or not because I think it’s far more important that people focus on the issue of sexual assault as a whole.”

Now, it could be that the three ex-friends have decided upon a new, more prudent media strategy to keep the rape-crazed True Believers away from them of making the story as boring as possible while still denying Erdely’s charges. But why then start to use your real names?

You know, Mr. AP Reporter, the guy’s got a cell phone with text messages and photos on it. You could ask about them. According to the Washington Post:

Randall provided The Post with pictures that Jackie’s purported date had sent of himself by text message in 2012. The Post identified the person in the pictures and learned that his name does not match the one Jackie gave friends in 2012. In an interview, the man said he was Jackie’s high school classmate but “never really spoke to her.”

The man said he was never a U-Va. student and is not a member of any fraternity. Additionally, he said that he had not visited Charlottesville in at least six years and that he was in another state participating in an athletic event during the weekend of Sept. 28, 2012.

“I have nothing to do with it,” he said. He said it appears that the circulated photos were pulled from social media Web sites.

After the alleged attack, the chemistry student who Jackie said had taken her on the date wrote an e-mail to Randall, passing along praise that Jackie apparently had for him.

Randall said it is apparent to him that he is the “first year” student that the chemistry upperclassman described in text messages, since he had rebuffed Jackie’s advances.

You know and I know that this is explosive stuff, but nobody at the Associated Press seems to have noticed. In particular, the text message from the Jackie’s dream date/ rape organizer after the purported gang rape is an obvious glitch in The Matrix. If Jackie had a confederate sending texts, this person apparently wasn’t apprised of Jackie’s latest improvisation; or if Jackie were sending the text messages herself from a burner phone, well, she’s just not a Gone Girl-quality plotter.

Here’s perhaps the most interesting summation that the Washington Post allowed itself:

Before Jackie’s date, the friends became suspicious that perhaps they hadn’t really been in contact with the chemistry student at all, they said.

Besides the media’s general nervous breakdown since the November Elections, part of what’s going on is the Sapir-Whorf Effect in action. I’ve never seen the movie “Catfish,” a purported documentary about a young man about the age of Randall being duped via misleading messages, but at least since the movie came out I now know the word “catfish.” It’s a pungent, memorable word for a rather complex activity that has been around for a long time but has become much more technologically convenient to pull off in recent years.

But if the word “catfish” doesn’t appear in the Washington Post article, will you think of it? But if you don’t think of it, it’s a lot harder to organize Shapiro’s reporting conceptually in your head. Especially when a lot of people don’t want you to get the joke.

 
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  1. The gang of blond haired male rapists who gangbanged Jackie consists of Jeff Spicoli from “Fast Time At Ridgmont High, Johnny from “The Karate Kid”, WWE superstar Jack Swagger, Dog The Bounty Hunter, and the Albino from “The Da Vinci Code”.

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  2. It’s a pungent, memorable word for a rather complex activity that has been around for a long time but has become much more technologically convenient to pull off in recent years.

    Of course, Cyrano de Bergerac! Only just occurred to me.

    I was watching Sin City last night. Marv (Mickey Rourke) mentions dealing with a frat boy “but good” who wronged a girl. The Narrative isnt just instantly served up by U-Va spectaculars its a constant drip-drip of reinforcement, like one of those hypnotic suggestion tapes. You might not even be conscious you’ve heard it but oh yes, you have.

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    • Replies: @jdsaunders
    Then "Gone Girl" et al are setting the subconscious stage for the return of the non-victim and prevalent psycho-fem.
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  3. (Don’t Mention the Catfishing!)

    Yeah. But somewhat less surprisingly, the media seems reluctant to mention another aspect of the story that convert-to-judaism blogger Luke Ford puts front and center:

    A Left-Wing Jew With A History Of Christian-Bashing Wrote That Bogus Rolling Stone Article About Rape At UVA

    Anna Merlan is also JewishLet me be clear: despite my age, gender, and Judaism,…

    Finally, Lena Dunham, whose own story of rape — by a WASP Republican, naturally — turned out to be phony, is also Jewish.

    Sorry for noticing.

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    • Replies: @MLK
    Hey Scooby-Doo, this is like noticing that blacks predominate in sports. I bet your friends and family listen close for these sorts of incisive observations during NFL Sundays!

    Inexplicably, folks of your mien never note, to cite just one example, Jews like this one:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2014/12/college_rape_campus_sexual_assault_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html

    Meanwhile, nary a word of criticism about this Problem Catholic who, whether a Useful Idiot or Agent Provocateur, derailed the focus from the malefactors:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/business/media/sowing-mayhem-one-click-at-a-time.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
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  4. Steve,

    The formal term “Catfishing” came into popular usage with a 2010 documentary. Which many folks themselves feel was in its own way an elaborate stunt since it lead to its creators getting an “unreality” reality tv show deal with MTV. The Catfish program is already in its third season on MTV.

    However, in actuality the modern cyberspace version of the “Catfishing” phenomena seems as old the internet itself, by at least two decades now.

    So is SRE’s now re-reporting of her Rolling Stone fiasco, just the next stage in the concoction of a SRE’s third RS article to be sold to Hollywood.

    In her “retelling”, will SRE be the initially duped heroine who bounces back and uncovers a tangled web of multiple layers of deception all the while making a strong case that there really is an epidemic of college rapes that are going unreported because everyone knows that is just the case but the WASP PTB are behind the conspiracy?

    My only question is who is going to play SRE in the movie version. Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz, Jennifer Connelly, Maggie Gyllenhaal….

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  5. anon • Disclaimer says:

    They’ve circled the wagons– not much else to it.

    On Saturday CNN published a piece by a young reporter entitled, “Bombshell rape story triggers weeks of turmoil at the University of Virginia.” How’s that for misleading?

    I nominate “bombshell” as the December flavor-of-the-month word. Richard Bradley used the term and it has been repeated (or re-purposed) ad nauseam to describe the RS story. Rather than serving according to Bradley’s usage–as a motive for an ambitious and ethically-challenged Rubin Erdeley to fudge the truth– the term is now being used to surreptitiously imply that really, really bad things have been going on over at UVA. It’s strategic ambiguity…

    The reporter is a Pulitzer-winner for her local coverage of the Sandusky events. 1800 words of fluff.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/13/us/uva-rape-turmoil/

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  6. A friend and roommate of mine got catfished a few years ago by a girl on Facebook. She lived 5 or so hours away (by plane), so they didn’t meet, but they spoke on the phone and exchanged pictures. I asked if he had ever Skyped with her, which to me, seemed like an obvious precaution/great way to verify her identity. He wasn’t worried about it, though, since they had a mutual friend (who I later found out had never actually met her in person either). Maybe I’m just cynical after being raised on the internet since the early 90′s, but all the warning signs were there.

    She finally flew out to visit after 6 months of them talking daily. Before he met her, I cautioned him that he should try to verify her identity, but he dismissed my concerns. She was 10 years and 10′s of pounds older and heavier than her ancient, heavily made up photos suggested; he noted that he didn’t recognize her until she called his name, and then had an awkward night.

    When he came back home after the disastrous date, I felt conflicted; I really wanted to lay into him for getting catfished and being a fool, but he was just so sad that I didn’t have the heart for it. It would’ve been so simple for him to have avoided getting duped, but I guess the old saying “too good to check” applies.

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  7. OT: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/27/date-with-twins-robbery_n_6233292.html

    NAM adventuress(es) tie up and rob 85 year old man in NYC. Of course, they don’t report the girls as NAMs, but I had a hunch, and found a NYPost article that shows one of the twins looking distinctly NAMish. (http://nypost.com/2014/11/26/teen-accused-of-robbing-85-year-old-sugar-daddy-blames-evil-twin/)

    The money quote:

    Shaina Foster told authorities she was surprised Aronson called police.

    “The old man reported me? I don’t understand why he reported me,” she said, according to court documents.

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    • Replies: @Steve Austen
    Evil twins are invariably left handed. (And white!)
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  8. In the updated version of the RS story, SRE will do her best James Jesus Angleton imitation and go on a extensive mole hunt and eventually expose the Rape Gestapo’s super secret deep penetration agent: Jackie Harvey Oswald (J-HO). The brave girls of the Rape Resistance at U-Va were infiltrated by J-HO whose father allegedly works for Army Intelligence, just like Jim Morrison, the famous rock star mole created by the CIA, whose father was a Naval Admiral.

    But J-HO was not a lone nut — SRE will discover a whole web of Rape Gestapo collaborators and label them the U-Va Five. These collaborators will have not only invented their own faux-rape stories, but they were also trained at Area 57 in the newest and most high-tech catfishing methods in order to confuse and defeat the brave Rape Resistance matriots. In a thrilling end, she will break into the Phi Psi house and dramatically lift up the floor boards and discover a Hogan’s Heroes-style basement operation where in fact overwhelmingly blond frat boys, decked out in anti-shard Kevlar body suits, are indeed raping trembling Freshman girls on beds of broken glass, coached on by the evil U-Va Five, who are then exposed to be really transgender blond men pretending to be rape victim women.

    Or something like that…

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  9. Just a couple days ago the Boss of UVA STILL had not lifted the Greek ban. Greeks were sleeping in motels according to one account. If they really wanted to bury this they would get the Boss to drop the ban.

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  10. Steve,

    I immediately thought of “Catfish” when I read the T Rees Shapiro article the hour it came out. I wondered why the Shapiro, after excellent reporting, had buried the (holy shiz!) lede in the second half of the article.

    Shapiro started making the TV rounds and again the interviews never seemed to get to the catfishing heart of the story. He appeared on Fox News’s On The Record with Greta van Susteren and the two never got to any of the Catfishing content.

    I have tweeted to several of the reporters who are doing exactly what you allege, making the story into a confusing mish-mash, when Shapiro has essentially solved it and Hanna Rosin, at Slate, (and you) have explained the implication much more clearly.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2014/12/10/rolling_stone_sabrina_rubin_erdely_the_washington_post_inches_closer_to.html

    I also wondered why the outlets who interviewed friends Ryan, Alex, and Kathryn, never went into this area and never even broached the topic that they had been texting / emailing with “Drew” before and after the “Date.”

    After wasting his CNN Reliable Sources segment on a friend of Jackie’s who fully supports her original story, I sent tweets to Brian Stelter asking why he hasn’t been asking the right questions, even when he had T Rees Shapiro and Hana Rosin on his show!

    Brian Stelter replied back to me that he couldn’t report on “my theory” without further proof and that “my conclusions” were unsubstantiated. I encouraged him to speak to the people who were on his show about their most interesting findings and he refused to, while claiming that he’d read all their reporting on it. He said that a responsible journalist would not reach the conclusions that I’ve reached and apparently Rosin, Shapiro, and you have reached.

    The AP story seems to have missed the story altogether.

    The Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross, scores an interview with Ryan Duffin, and concludes that Ryan was in Jackie’s Chemistry class. So either Ryan, Jackie, and “Drew” were all in the same class, Shapiro was greatly confused, or Ross doesn’t listen too well and no one fact checks at The Daily Caller (which we all knew).

    http://dailycaller.com/2014/12/12/uva-gang-rape-accusers-friend-shares-new-details-in-interview/

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  11. The original “Catfish” documentary is, as Jackie would say, “totally worth it.”

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  12. @Lurker

    It’s a pungent, memorable word for a rather complex activity that has been around for a long time but has become much more technologically convenient to pull off in recent years.
     
    Of course, Cyrano de Bergerac! Only just occurred to me.

    I was watching Sin City last night. Marv (Mickey Rourke) mentions dealing with a frat boy "but good" who wronged a girl. The Narrative isnt just instantly served up by U-Va spectaculars its a constant drip-drip of reinforcement, like one of those hypnotic suggestion tapes. You might not even be conscious you've heard it but oh yes, you have.

    Then “Gone Girl” et al are setting the subconscious stage for the return of the non-victim and prevalent psycho-fem.

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  13. Brian Stelter “doesn’t see it” (what his guests T Rees Shapiro found and Hanna Rosin explained)

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  14. antimarxist:

    My only question is who is going to play SRE in the movie version. Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz, Jennifer Connelly, Maggie Gyllenhaal….

    Chloe Sevigny. Since she played the Hanna Rosin part in Shattered Glass, it would be a nice touch to have her play Erdely in any future UVA rape-hoax movie.

    Of course, I’m not sure that such a film is going to be made. After all, no one made a movie out of the Duke lacrosse or the Tawanna Brawley hoaxes.When something is this damaging to the narrative, it tends to get dropped down the memory hole.

    Finally, Lena Dunham, whose own story of rape — by a WASP Republican, naturally — turned out to be phony, is also Jewish.

    Gentile father and Jewish mother. She feels a stronger connection to her mother’s background, though:

    Dunham was born in New York City, New York.[3] Her father, Carroll Dunham, is a painter, and her mother, Laurie Simmons, is an artist and photographer, and a member of the Pictures group. Laurie is known for her use of dolls and doll-house furniture in her photographs of setup interior scenes.[4][5] Dunham has described herself as feeling “very culturally Jewish, although that’s the biggest cliché for a Jewish woman to say”; her father is Protestant, and her mother is Jewish.

    Children from mixed-marriages are interesting cases.They almost always seem to feel a stronger connection to one parent’s bloodline.

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  15. The media is focusing on the ridiculous false quotes attributed to the friends when a much larger and verifiable falsehood is central to this story: Jackie completely made-up the man that she claims raped her.

    “Hendley told the AP Erdely apologized to her for portraying her the way she did.”

    Ha ha. As I noted in a previous thread, Jackie only called her crush Ryan to come rescue her the night of her fictitious rape date with Aryan fratboys. Even though the media persists in calling Kathryn Hendley one of Jackie’s “friends,” Jackie considered her either a rival or a nuisance, and specifically asked that she NOT come that night. But Alex brought her along anyways, which obviously infuriated Jackie. This is why the most reprehensible made-up quotes in the article were reserved for Kathryn.

    An unanswered question is if Rubin Erdely lied completely about contacting the three “friends” or if Jackie gave her fake contact info and posed as the friends herself.

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  16. […] Source: Steve Sailer […]

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  17. One thing about this case that surprises me is that nobody ever tried to call “Drew” or whatever his name was. I mean, I usually only text message people I know well. How would one text message someone they cannot call? (Perhaps the phone was on “leave a message” mode.)

    Direct or indirect predecessors to this bizarre catfish would include Cyrano de Bergerac (as noted), but also the so called “bed trick” which one finds in Shakespeare, Bocaccio, and the book of Genesis. The 1982 Scottish film “Gregory’s Girl” comes to mind, as well as Lubitsch’s “Shop Around the Corner” remade as “You’ve Got Mail”, as well. More examples would be welcome.

    In fairness, while the catfish seems the only possible interpretation, there is another conspiracy minded explanation; that the matter happened as Jackie states and that her three friends, angry at their portrayal, got together to explode her story. Not very likely, but a true believer in this story will do whatever it takes.

    I assume that Jackie has some responsibility to the investigators of the Charlottesville PD and the Commonwealth of Virginia. That is, I hope she is required to talk to them.

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  18. steve, your abortion page is redirecting to a true religion jeans company: http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm i think you have been haked

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  19. It s illegal in UK to say something that leads to the “likelihood that racial hatred will be stirred up.”

    http://alternative-right.blogspot.com/2014/12/jail-diary-of-thought-criminal.html#more

    But doesn’t mass immigration increases such likelihood?

    So, shouldn’t it be stopped?

    Furthermore, hasn’t mass immigration been perpetrated by stirring up hatred against white Britain as national policy?

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  20. It’s damage control time now. They continue to lie but they’ve gone to another playbook for the current approach: ‘we meant well but …’.
    We’re living in a strange time right now.

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  21. Here’s an academic paper from LSE which has recently come out and seems extremely topical:

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2497844

    >>Debating Rape Myths

    Helen Reece

    London School of Economics – Law Department

    September 18, 2014

    Abstract:
    In a recent article, I argued that the regressiveness of current public attitudes towards rape has been overstated, suggesting that, to a troubling extent, we are in the process of creating myths about myths. The article itself and the arguments contained within it have provoked various responses from feminists. While these responses proceed at times on the basis of misunderstandings or misinterpretations of my argument, they are helpful both in clarifying areas of disagreement and in underscoring some important points of agreement – at times explicitly by accepting, and at other times implicitly by leaving unchallenged, some of my core claims. In what follows, I aim to point out the misunderstandings or misinterpretations, and to clarify both the areas of assent and the areas of dissent in an attempt to move us towards the productive public conversation we believe we want.<<

    "the productive public conversation we believe we want" – I'm not sure if this is the royal 'we' or she has a broad view of what feminists regard as 'productive'.

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    • Replies: @The most deplorable one
    Well, it certainly seems that we have enough incidences of false rape claims and false gang rape claims that they cannot be regarded as myths.
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  22. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Catfish is definitely worth seeing. What’s interesting is its very existence is controversial in the same vein as “Exit Through the Gift Shop” (documentary about a rich guy corporatizing street art) as some people think the whole movie is fiction masquerading as a legit docudrama. Regardless, still very, very interesting and a must see in light of this Jackie/SRE hoax and debacle.

    Speaking of movies, Steve, thanks for your post on “Shattered Glass.” Fantastic movie with great performances by the two leads. I can’t believe it went under my radar all these years. Thanks for putting it out there.

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  23. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Hey, here’s an angle for the MSM to get the truth out while simultaneously saving face…
    Jackie Coakley is the first WHITE false rape hoaxer we’ve had in awhile. They need to make a big deal out of it to prove that it’s not just the Tawanna Brawley’s, Crystal Gail Mangum’s (Duke Lacrosse stripper), and Wanetta Gibson’s (Brian Banks’ accuser) who falsely accuse.
    Crazy attention-whores come in every color.

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  24. At a certain point, the media getting to the bottom of this “catfishing” business seems like it would be more salacious than anything. Publicizing a mentally troubled girl’s flights of fantasy seems to breach a sense of propriety if not verge on the cruel at this point. It is enough to know that the story didn’t happen. It is enough that Erdely and Rolling Stone have been completely discredited (why haven’t jobs been lost at Rolling Stone?) If America has an interest in further details about this unhinged young lady’s lies than it is a sordid one, and I don’t blame the media for refraining to indulge.

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  25. Time to come clean.

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  26. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152901322617065&set=a.466204912064.233371.502847064&type=1&pnref=story

    Protesting police terror or preventing black terror?

    Preempt black rage with show of white outrage.

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  27. Yes… the press is being overly neutral on their reporting of this.

    The live television interviews leave no doubt. The ‘friends’ have an agenda, which is to rebut the lies in the story that depict them as exemplifying UVA rape culture. So they feel almost compelled to toss in something about how campus rape is a heinous crime, they are on the victim’s side, &c.

    But the actual interviews I have seen tell a different story. In their group interview, when the issue of whether the conversation in the story occurred, they all started laughing. Spontaneous group laughter goes well beyond denial and is incredibly effective.

    In another, Alex Stock refers to Jackie in an offhand way, when asked if he was hurt, as a storyteller.

    These friends are very convincingly not part of anything remotely like alleged UVA rape culture. They are so well spoken and nerdy that it is hard to see any of them even at a frat party. Somewhere else (I don’t remember), one of them said the only think he knew about greek letters was from physics class.

    And, in spite of the careful attempts at being objective and neutral, the word ‘alleged’ is showing up all over the place. Alleged victim? This is rarely used, because the victim of a violent crime is virtually always a victim of something, even if it wasn’t a crime. A shooting victim is still a victim, even if he was shot in self defense. Typically, you have a ‘vic’ and a ‘perp’ … The perp, prior to conviction, gets the ‘honor’ of being named as the alleged perp. The alleged ‘vic’ of an alleged crime? Not so much.

    Now Jackie has the honor of being referred to as the alleged victim of the alleged crime.

    Another odd thing that keeps popping up is that she didn’t want Cindy to be present … not during the original conversation and then, she wanted the two guys to stay with her that night, but not Cindy.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/questions-raised-rolling-stones-uva-rape-story/story?id=27537952

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/friends-accounts-differ-from-alleged-uva-gang-rape-victims-in-article/

    The friends first priority is to prove they aren’t members of the alleged rape culture. So … they are against rape. Really. And for victims. Very. And taking no chances with that allegation. So they don’t want to openly call Jackie a liar.

    Otherwise, they don’t seem to really care if it was Jackie or Rolling Stone that lied. The friends have gone from fake first names to fully identified over the course of a couple of days. Every time they open their mouths on television, they damage Jackie. Whether they imply she is a tragic figure, or a victim of something or other — as part of wanting to be certain that they are as pro woman/anti rape as possible.

    Don’t forget that Casey Anthony became one of the most hated women in American history, even though no one could figure out, much less convict her, of a particular crime. The ‘knew’ Casey either killed Kaley or would have killed her, or didn’t much care, with the large majority in the first camp. There was a rush to pass ‘Kaley’s Law’ making it a felony to *not* report a missing child to the police within 24 hours. I don’t know how many states it was enacted in, despite the fact that this has to be one of the least likely ‘crimes’ imaginable.

    It will never get close to that far … but the press isn’t done with this yet.

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  28. More on false rape charges:

    http://www.ipt-forensics.com/journal/volume6/j6_2_4.htm

    “Alan Dershowitz (1991), for example, has further harassed his students by telling them that an annual F.B.I. survey of 1600 law enforcement agencies discovered that 8% of rape charges are completely unfounded. That figure, which has held steadily over the past decade, is moreover at least twice as high as for any other felony. Unfounded charges of assault, which like rape is often productive of conflicting testimony, comprise only 1.6% of the total compared to the 8.4% recorded for rape.”

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  29. I have noticed that some have pointed to the recent DoJ document on rape and sexual assault as assaulting the traditional 1/5 numbers (or even the more recent claims by some that women have a lifetime 1/3 chance of being raped):

    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

    It should be pointed out that caution should be used with that document, because one method of calculating lifetime probability of rape seems to get close to 1 in 5.

    Assuming the number of 6.1/1000 during the college years, and that before age 10 and after age 40 females are vanishingly likely to be raped, we still have 30 years to account for.

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 – 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.

    The flaw, I suspect is that the probability still falls away drastically outside the peak fertility years … so 30 years is wrong and a piece wise calculation is required.

    Of course,

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    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    I think there are two problems with the analysis.

    #1. if the rate of rape is 6.1/1000, that would be for all 4 or even 5 years, correct? So then you would have to take the 4th root or the 5th root of that number to get a real annual probability factor, which would be something like .0015 or .0012.

    #2 If you take any of those numbers and take them to the 30th power (to represent a lifetime of risk), you get 20% of risk (lifetime), 4.67%, and 3.7%. (e.g., 1.0061^30 = 1.200)

    #3 A study I consulted from 1987, H Koppel, "Lifetime Likelihood of Victimization" (DOJ, on the net) lists extensive tables including 99% likelihood of everyone being the victim of theft (for example.) However, the likelihood of being a rape victim (as a female) is only 8%, again, in a lifetime. If we carry that out to the 82nd root (normal lifespan) you get something like .09%, or a bit over 1/1000 chance of sexual assault in any given year.

    , @ben tillman

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 – 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.
     
    Your calculation is fine (although technically you're talking about 31 years), but you described it wrong in one spot. According to your source, the probability of not getting raped in any year is .9939, as you said the first time (1 -.0061), but not the second time (.0061). It also relies on a dubious but convenient assumption that the rate stays constant over the period in question, but it's probably close enough.
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  30. The CBC has a good commentary on this case:

    Journalism ethics take a hit with Rolling Stone’s unravelling rape story
    Magazine’s decision not to fact-check rape victim’s story ending badly all round

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/journalism-ethics-take-a-hit-with-rolling-stone-s-unravelling-rape-story-1.2871930

    The most popular readers’ comments have been good as well.

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  31. Priss Factor [AKA "terrapin gape"] says:

    This is a case of BOATS journalism.

    BOATS = ‘based on a true story’.

    Why is ‘boatsing’ bullshi*?

    99 times out of 100, whenever Hollywood says a movie is based on a true story, it is really a debasement.

    As the kid said in THE SIXTH SENSE, ghosts see what they wanna see. Same with those in the media. See what they wanna see. Black villains are invisible even when real, white villains are made visible even when unreal.

    They see thru lenses on which the ‘evil white male’ is painted. Thus, the image accompanies whatever they see.

    http://www.cracked.com/article_16478_7-movies-based-true-story-that-are-complete-bullshit.html

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  32. Read More
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  33. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @Simon in London
    Here's an academic paper from LSE which has recently come out and seems extremely topical:
    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2497844


    >>Debating Rape Myths

    Helen Reece

    London School of Economics - Law Department

    September 18, 2014

    Abstract:
    In a recent article, I argued that the regressiveness of current public attitudes towards rape has been overstated, suggesting that, to a troubling extent, we are in the process of creating myths about myths. The article itself and the arguments contained within it have provoked various responses from feminists. While these responses proceed at times on the basis of misunderstandings or misinterpretations of my argument, they are helpful both in clarifying areas of disagreement and in underscoring some important points of agreement - at times explicitly by accepting, and at other times implicitly by leaving unchallenged, some of my core claims. In what follows, I aim to point out the misunderstandings or misinterpretations, and to clarify both the areas of assent and the areas of dissent in an attempt to move us towards the productive public conversation we believe we want.<<

    "the productive public conversation we believe we want" - I'm not sure if this is the royal 'we' or she has a broad view of what feminists regard as 'productive'.

    Well, it certainly seems that we have enough incidences of false rape claims and false gang rape claims that they cannot be regarded as myths.

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    • Replies: @Hard Line Realist

    Well, it certainly seems that we have enough incidences of false rape claims and false gang rape claims that they cannot be regarded as myths.
     
    Sure. However, just as not all men are rapists, not all women are false rape claimers!

    It is likely that it is a combination of genetics and socialization.

    That is, those individuals with low IQ and/or low future-time orientation would seem more likely to fail to understand the negative consequences of their actions. Similarly, if they have low levels of empathy. All of these things are genetic.

    In addition, if there is a false rape claim culture, then you would expect more of them.
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  34. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30444230

    Japan a one-party state like China(and maybe Turkey)?

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  35. Catfishing? The media are as allergic to that term as they are to rough trade.

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  36. Read More
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  37. I don’t doubt that most in the media steer clear of the catfishing angle to keep out of trouble, either from the outside or from within. But I think they won’t be able to avoid it long.

    Why? It’s too juicy, it’s low hanging, and everybody knows it’s there. Some more members of the media will break ranks — as has WaPo already — and go for the salacious details.

    A big news story that people can’t stop reading can do wonders for a reporter’s career, and for a news publication.

    Thank God for ambition!

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  38. @eah
    (Don't Mention the Catfishing!)

    Yeah. But somewhat less surprisingly, the media seems reluctant to mention another aspect of the story that convert-to-judaism blogger Luke Ford puts front and center:

    A Left-Wing Jew With A History Of Christian-Bashing Wrote That Bogus Rolling Stone Article About Rape At UVA

    Anna Merlan is also Jewish -- Let me be clear: despite my age, gender, and Judaism,...

    Finally, Lena Dunham, whose own story of rape -- by a WASP Republican, naturally -- turned out to be phony, is also Jewish.

    Sorry for noticing.

    Hey Scooby-Doo, this is like noticing that blacks predominate in sports. I bet your friends and family listen close for these sorts of incisive observations during NFL Sundays!

    Inexplicably, folks of your mien never note, to cite just one example, Jews like this one:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2014/12/college_rape_campus_sexual_assault_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html

    Meanwhile, nary a word of criticism about this Problem Catholic who, whether a Useful Idiot or Agent Provocateur, derailed the focus from the malefactors:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/business/media/sowing-mayhem-one-click-at-a-time.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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    • Replies: @eah
    Hey MLK,

    Are you Jewish? How about full disclosure on that?

    I didn't claim my act of 'noticing' here is in any way comprehensive -- ie that there are 'good' Jews and 'bad' Catholics (duh) -- however you may want to define that in any particular context -- I have no doubt (so I won't bother following your links, thanks anyway).

    ...folks of your mien never note...

    And how the hell do you, or could you, know what I "never note"? Or what my "mien" is (ww, actually)? Bizarre.

    My own full disclosue: I am a 'lapsed Catholic'.

    Again: sorry for noticing. But it ain't just me. So if I were you, I'd get over it.
    , @rod1963
    And your point is, sparky?

    It doesn't excuse the fact that this particular ethnic group is notorious for leading the charge against whites and no matter how egregious the lie they spew, nothing happens to them or the rags that approve the story no matter how shoddy it is?

    It reeks of institutionalized hate and a maintaining a narrative no matter how rotten and deceitful it is.

    So what that a couple of them get guilty a conscience and write a apology of sorts, it doesn't stop the damage and hate their associates generate on a routine basis.
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  39. “Duffin” could be a contraction of Dindu Nuffin.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    actually a subsidiary of Dunder-Mifflin, where they specialize in producing Dindu Nuffins
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  40. Isn’t this description more than past it’s sell-by date:

    an alleged victim of gang rape at a University of Virginia frat house

    No gang rape, no frat house, no victim… The story’s been debunked. It’s a hoax or a fraud perpetrated by Sabrina Erdely and published in Rolling Stone magazine.

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  41. Although the political valence of this story keeps the mainstream media from running with this angle, this whole debacle makes an instructive morality tale about the dangers of lying: you tell one little lie, and then to cover up your story you have to tell more and more lies, until the lie spins out of your control and becomes destructive. Indeed, it’s difficult to imagine a better example of how telling a “little white lie” (making up a date to get a boy to like you) can escalate into much more serious lies which seriously harm other people.

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  42. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    Moreover, because those with the megaphone now insist that women never lie about rape, women now have more license to lie about rape.

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  43. There may be some progress:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catfishing

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  44. Great blog! I am a new reader.
    Jack

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  45. @MLK
    Hey Scooby-Doo, this is like noticing that blacks predominate in sports. I bet your friends and family listen close for these sorts of incisive observations during NFL Sundays!

    Inexplicably, folks of your mien never note, to cite just one example, Jews like this one:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2014/12/college_rape_campus_sexual_assault_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html

    Meanwhile, nary a word of criticism about this Problem Catholic who, whether a Useful Idiot or Agent Provocateur, derailed the focus from the malefactors:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/business/media/sowing-mayhem-one-click-at-a-time.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    Hey MLK,

    Are you Jewish? How about full disclosure on that?

    I didn’t claim my act of ‘noticing’ here is in any way comprehensive — ie that there are ‘good’ Jews and ‘bad’ Catholics (duh) — however you may want to define that in any particular context — I have no doubt (so I won’t bother following your links, thanks anyway).

    …folks of your mien never note…

    And how the hell do you, or could you, know what I “never note”? Or what my “mien” is (ww, actually)? Bizarre.

    My own full disclosue: I am a ‘lapsed Catholic’.

    Again: sorry for noticing. But it ain’t just me. So if I were you, I’d get over it.

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  46. OT: Steveosphere bait. How many contradictions and self-defeating assertions are contained in just these three sentences?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/nyregion/at-rikers-a-roadblock-to-reform.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Like Mr. Seabrook, the overwhelming majority of his members are black. They have risen to dominate the top ranks of the department, making it far more diverse than the Police and Fire Departments, where most of the leadership is white.

    But current and former city officials repeatedly described Mr. Seabrook as the biggest obstacle to efforts to curb brutality and malfeasance at Rikers.

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  47. @Ted Cunterblast
    "Duffin" could be a contraction of Dindu Nuffin.

    actually a subsidiary of Dunder-Mifflin, where they specialize in producing Dindu Nuffins

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  48. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Three friends of an alleged victim of gang rape at a University of Virginia frat house say a magazine article wrongly portrayed them as uncaring students who were more concerned about their reputations than her well-being

    That can’t be right. Miss Renda, the UVA rape activist, told the United States Senate that Jackie’s friends persuaded Jackie to keep her mouth shut. The friends even told Jackie that Jackie must have brought it on herself.

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  49. Steve, your work on this has been first class. Looks like we have another Tawana Brawley or Duke Lacrosse story. I especially liked this quote:

    “But if anything, the takeaway from all this is that I still don’t really care if what’s presented in this article is true or not because I think it’s far more important that people focus on the issue of sexual assault as a whole.”

    ….

    In other words, it doesn’t really matter whether a story is true or complete BS, because, either way, it illustrates a Higher Truth.

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  50. @Hard Line Realist
    I have noticed that some have pointed to the recent DoJ document on rape and sexual assault as assaulting the traditional 1/5 numbers (or even the more recent claims by some that women have a lifetime 1/3 chance of being raped):

    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

    It should be pointed out that caution should be used with that document, because one method of calculating lifetime probability of rape seems to get close to 1 in 5.

    Assuming the number of 6.1/1000 during the college years, and that before age 10 and after age 40 females are vanishingly likely to be raped, we still have 30 years to account for.

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 - 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.

    The flaw, I suspect is that the probability still falls away drastically outside the peak fertility years ... so 30 years is wrong and a piece wise calculation is required.

    Of course,

    I think there are two problems with the analysis.

    #1. if the rate of rape is 6.1/1000, that would be for all 4 or even 5 years, correct? So then you would have to take the 4th root or the 5th root of that number to get a real annual probability factor, which would be something like .0015 or .0012.

    #2 If you take any of those numbers and take them to the 30th power (to represent a lifetime of risk), you get 20% of risk (lifetime), 4.67%, and 3.7%. (e.g., 1.0061^30 = 1.200)

    #3 A study I consulted from 1987, H Koppel, “Lifetime Likelihood of Victimization” (DOJ, on the net) lists extensive tables including 99% likelihood of everyone being the victim of theft (for example.) However, the likelihood of being a rape victim (as a female) is only 8%, again, in a lifetime. If we carry that out to the 82nd root (normal lifespan) you get something like .09%, or a bit over 1/1000 chance of sexual assault in any given year.

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  51. Obvious catfishing by Jackie. It always bothers me when ppl say Manti Teo was catfished. He wasn’t. He made the entire dead girlfriend up to get positive PR for his Heisman run and pro career. Sooo many people still don’t understand this.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Did Teo make up the dead girlfriend to cover up being gay or is he straight and just made her up to attract media attention?
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  52. @The most deplorable one
    Well, it certainly seems that we have enough incidences of false rape claims and false gang rape claims that they cannot be regarded as myths.

    Well, it certainly seems that we have enough incidences of false rape claims and false gang rape claims that they cannot be regarded as myths.

    Sure. However, just as not all men are rapists, not all women are false rape claimers!

    It is likely that it is a combination of genetics and socialization.

    That is, those individuals with low IQ and/or low future-time orientation would seem more likely to fail to understand the negative consequences of their actions. Similarly, if they have low levels of empathy. All of these things are genetic.

    In addition, if there is a false rape claim culture, then you would expect more of them.

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  53. @Raekwon
    OT: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/27/date-with-twins-robbery_n_6233292.html

    NAM adventuress(es) tie up and rob 85 year old man in NYC. Of course, they don't report the girls as NAMs, but I had a hunch, and found a NYPost article that shows one of the twins looking distinctly NAMish. (http://nypost.com/2014/11/26/teen-accused-of-robbing-85-year-old-sugar-daddy-blames-evil-twin/)

    The money quote:

    Shaina Foster told authorities she was surprised Aronson called police.

    "The old man reported me? I don’t understand why he reported me," she said, according to court documents.

     

    Evil twins are invariably left handed. (And white!)

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  54. It seems they’ve forgotten how to run their own Narrative. This is how they’re supposed to do it:

    Tensions surface as Australian Muslims fear Sydney siege backlash

    A Middle Eastern Muslim fanatic holds Australian hostages, and the story is…the poor Muslim population living in fear of those awful Australians.

    They should run stories with headlines like, “Tensions surface as women fear backlash.”

    On Saturday CNN published a piece by a young reporter entitled, “Bombshell rape story triggers weeks of turmoil at the University of Virginia.” How’s that for misleading?

    Okay. Whew! That’s much better. I was starting to get worried.

    Corporate journalists lie for a living. That’s their job. Lying.

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  55. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    SPMoore8:

    Direct or indirect predecessors to this bizarre catfish would include Cyrano de Bergerac (as noted), but also the so called “bed trick” which one finds in Shakespeare, Bocaccio, and the book of Genesis. The 1982 Scottish film “Gregory’s Girl” comes to mind, as well as Lubitsch’s “Shop Around the Corner” remade as “You’ve Got Mail”, as well.

    Don’t forget “Young Frankenraper.”

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  56. I don’t at all doubt that the liberal media is circling the wagons, but I also think that they are deliberately protecting Jackie. The catfishing angle makes her look really bad, and I suspect that they believe that pointing it out would just be piling on since she is already disgraced.

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    • Replies: @NOTA
    Jackie is probably a pretty messed up person, and piling onto her would be needlessly nasty. There were a few people whose job it was to make sure they didn't air a bunch of reputation-destroying fantasies from a crazy person, but Jackie isn't really any of them.
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  57. Read More
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  58. Off-topic,

    More thoughts from America’s most prominent Black Intellectual (Ta-Nehisi Coates) on the demise of The New Republic:

    That explains why the family rows at TNR’s virtual funeral look like the “Whites Only” section of a Jim Crow-era movie-house. For most of its modern history, TNR has been an entirely white publication, which published stories confirming white people’s worst instincts. During the culture wars of the ’80s and ’90s, TNR regarded black people with an attitude ranging from removed disregard to blatant bigotry. When people discuss TNR’s racism, Andrew Sullivan’s publication of excerpts from Charles Murray’s book The Bell Curve (and a series of dissents) gets the most attention. But this fuels the lie that one infamous issue stands apart. In fact, the Bell Curve episode is remarkable for how well it fits with the rest of TNR’s history.

    The personal attitude of TNR’s longtime owner, the bigoted Martin Peretz, should be mentioned here. Peretz’s dossier of racist hits (mostly at the expense of blacks and Arabs) is shameful, and one does not have to look hard to find evidence of it in Peretz’s writing or in the sensibility of the magazine during his ownership. In 1984, long before Sullivan was tapped to helm TNR, Charles Murray was dubbing affirmative action a form of “new racism” that targeted white people.

    TNR made a habit of “reflecting briefly” on matters that were life and death to black people but were mostly abstract thought experiments to the magazine’s editors. Before, during, and after Sullivan’s tenure, the magazine seemed to believe that the kind of racism that mattered most was best evidenced in the evils of Afrocentrism, the excesses of multiculturalism, and the machinations of Jesse Jackson. It’s true that TNR’s staff roundly objected to excerpting The Bell Curve, but I was never quite sure why. Sullivan was simply exposing the dark premise that lay beneath much of the magazine’s coverage of America’s ancient dilemma.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/ta-nehisi-coates/

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    He's not a 'black intellectual'. He's an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He's not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he's a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent 'black intellectual' might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

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  59. TNC has words of praise for Chris Hughes:

    In this sense it is unfortunate to see anonymous staffers accusing TNR’s owner Chris Hughes of trying to create “another BuzzFeed.” If that is truly Hughes’s ambition, then—in at least one important way—he will have created a publication significantly more moral than anything any recent TNR editor ever has. No publication has more aggressively dealt with diversity than BuzzFeed. And not unrelated to this diversity has been a stellar range of storytelling and analysis, that could rival—if not best—the journalism in the latest iteration of TNR.

    TNC offers the Black view on Stephen Glass:

    What else to make of the article that made Stephen Glass’s career possible, “Taxi Cabs and the Meaning of Work”? The piece asserted that black people in D.C. were distinctly lacking in the work ethic best evidenced by immigrant cab drivers. A surrealist comedy, Glass’s piece revels in the alleged exploits of a mythical Asian-American avenger—Kae Bang—who wreaks havoc on black criminals who’d rather rob taxi drivers than work. The article concludes with Glass, in the cab, while its driver is robbed by a black man. It was all lies.

    What else to make of TNR sending Ruth Shalit to evaluate affirmative action at The Washington Post in 1995? “She cast Post writer Kevin Merida as some kind of poster boy for affirmative action when in fact he had risen in the business for reasons far more legitimate than her own,” David Carr wrote in 1999. Shalit’s piece wasn’t all lies. But it wasn’t all true either. Shortly after the article was published, she was revealed to be a serial plagiarist.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/ta-nehisi-coates/

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  60. OT (New T?): I’m waiting for Steve’s take on what just went down in Australia. Example quotes from the story…

    “This is a one-off random individual. It’s not a concerted terrorism event or act. It’s a damaged goods individual who’s done something outrageous,” his former lawyer, Manny Conditsis, told Australian Broadcasting Corp.

    “His ideology is just so strong and so powerful that it clouds his vision for common sense and objectiveness,” Conditsis said.

    His “ideology” is influenced by the BS around him, his Muslim world, etc. It doesn’t take much stupidity, promoted by leaders, media and agitators, to cause a “damaged goods individual” to do terrible things to the rest of us.

    Another fine example of immigration of non-Europeans into the European world and The Anglosphere…

    “Monis has long been on officials’ radar. Last year, he was sentenced to 300 hours of community service for using the postal service to send what a judge called “grossly offensive” letters to families of soldiers killed in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2009.

    At the time, Monis said his letters were “flowers of advice,” adding: “Always, I stand behind my beliefs.”

    He was later charged with being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife. Earlier this year, he was charged with the sexual assault of a woman in 2002. He has been out on bail on the charges.”

    Just another poor soul, like the ones we have in America. We must not be doing enough for them. Gosh we are so evil.

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  61. Hi Steve, regarding your comments about how T Rees Shapiro’s great reporting has the feeling of an “Assemble-Your-Own-Article,” the image that comes to mind is of some editor at WaPo who’s acting out the Jason Robards as Ben Bradlee role in “All The President’s Men.” T Rees Shapiro and his helpers are Woodward and Bernstein, of course.

    The moments I recall from the movie are that Bradlee rigorously challenged the young reporters to check and cross-check and verify all the facts, as he should have. He never let them jump to conclusions prematurely. The resultant articles, as excerpted in the film are written in a very matter-of-fact manner, and were given prosaic headlines akin to the ones that adorn Shapiro’s pieces. Headlines like the one on the stunning, blockbuster article: “U-Va. students challenge Rolling Stone account of alleged sexual assault” which certainly downplays the explosive revelations in the piece. The initial paragraphs then lay out discrepancies between Jackie’s two rape stories, when the real story, that neither story may be at all true, is much deeper in the piece.

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  62. Regarding the discussion of why the word “Catfish” has never been uttered on TV and none of the TV reports are even getting close to the real story, when I highlighted this to Brian Stelter at CNN Reliable Sources, he argued that there’s no proof for “my theory.” He’s running a media analysis show and he’s a media reporter. I’m not asking him to report on the crime investigation. The articles by his recent guests, T. Rees Shapiro of WaPo and Hanna Rosin of Slate give enough evidence to at least have the conversation about the possibility that this is the biggest #catfish story yet. Stelter seems determined to keep the story confusing, rather than let Shapiro and Rosin come on and really get into it. Instead he has a student from UVA come on who’s a rape advocate club member and she said things like “monstrous men” and “monstrous fraternities” over and over. Stelter’s assessment of Erdely’s reporting was that it was very “negligent.” Even the student, Alex Pinkleton, had harsher words for Erdely and her apparent agenda. Certainly Erdely’s agenda-driven actions were more than merely “negligent.” She avoided finding the accused. She avoided interviewing the 3 “witnesses” Ryan Duffin, Alex Stock, and Kathryn Handley and she either apparently accepted an emailed or texted refusal to be interviewed by Ryan (fooled by the catfisher) or Erdely took Jackie’s word for it …or Erdely lied about it.

    ALL of this should have been of great interest to Brian Stetler and CNN Reliable Sources. Instead he brushed them off as some kind of oddball unproven theory that requires more proof before it can even be discussed.

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  63. The purpose of the larger narrative here – The Great Campus Rape Panic of ’14 – is to beat up on men. Particularly young cisgendered heterosexual white men. Smart ones. College material. The kind of men who will probably use their privilege to take over the world if we don’t start hammering their self esteem, and tilting the playing field against them.

    The problem is that the underlying factual basis for the left’s claims are utter b.s.

    Here’s Obama and Biden’s remarks citing the “fact” that 1 in 5 women are sexually assaulted on campus. That’s the same rate as war torn sub-Saharan African nations, but nevermind that. The President said it’s just as bad at Yale as it is in the Congo, so it must be so:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/01/22/remarks-president-and-vice-president-event-council-women-and-girls

    Here’s a report issued VERY QUIETLY last week by the Department of Justice about the true incidence of sexual assault on campus. You may have seen it reported in the MSM last week as “Rape On Campus Less Likely To Be Reported.” That’s one of the findings in this study, sure. And a shame. But the larger point is that from 1997 to 2013 only 6 out of every 1,000 college women were sexually assaulted. And it has been cut in half during that interval. In 2013 the number was 4.3 out of 1,000 annually (which means about 1.6% of college women are sexually assaulted during their four years… which is just a little lower than 20%).

    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

    And I may be misreading the data, but it appears that actual completed rape is rarer still – comprising about 33% of those numbers. For a grand total of 1 out of every 600 or so college women getting raped. That’s close to 1 out of every 5 women, right?? Maybe they didn’t teach math at the Punahoa School and Occidental.

    Will we ever hear about this again? I sincerely doubt it. The narrative rolls on. But I do hope Steve can gin up some interest.

    The whole thing reminded me of this Circuit City ad from the ’90s. “Last week I bought this. And today I saw this. Just opened the paper and there it was…”

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  64. @MLK
    Hey Scooby-Doo, this is like noticing that blacks predominate in sports. I bet your friends and family listen close for these sorts of incisive observations during NFL Sundays!

    Inexplicably, folks of your mien never note, to cite just one example, Jews like this one:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2014/12/college_rape_campus_sexual_assault_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html

    Meanwhile, nary a word of criticism about this Problem Catholic who, whether a Useful Idiot or Agent Provocateur, derailed the focus from the malefactors:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/business/media/sowing-mayhem-one-click-at-a-time.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    And your point is, sparky?

    It doesn’t excuse the fact that this particular ethnic group is notorious for leading the charge against whites and no matter how egregious the lie they spew, nothing happens to them or the rags that approve the story no matter how shoddy it is?

    It reeks of institutionalized hate and a maintaining a narrative no matter how rotten and deceitful it is.

    So what that a couple of them get guilty a conscience and write a apology of sorts, it doesn’t stop the damage and hate their associates generate on a routine basis.

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  65. I accidentally left out the word “annually” in my post above about how often college women are raped. It’s 1/600 annually and 1/150 over four years.

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  66. “Protesting police terror or preventing black terror?

    Preempt black rage with show of white outrage.”

    If White people made up only 13 percent of the U.S population but committed over 50 percent of this country’s homicides, I wonder how many Left Wingers would be protesting/rioting/looting over the police for disproportionally killing Whites over other races ? All of a sudden Left Wingers would be on the side of law enforcement if it involves dead White bodies because White lives do not matter in Left Wing circles.

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  67. @syonredux
    Off-topic,

    More thoughts from America's most prominent Black Intellectual (Ta-Nehisi Coates) on the demise of The New Republic:

    That explains why the family rows at TNR's virtual funeral look like the "Whites Only" section of a Jim Crow-era movie-house. For most of its modern history, TNR has been an entirely white publication, which published stories confirming white people's worst instincts. During the culture wars of the '80s and '90s, TNR regarded black people with an attitude ranging from removed disregard to blatant bigotry. When people discuss TNR's racism, Andrew Sullivan's publication of excerpts from Charles Murray's book The Bell Curve (and a series of dissents) gets the most attention. But this fuels the lie that one infamous issue stands apart. In fact, the Bell Curve episode is remarkable for how well it fits with the rest of TNR's history.
     

    The personal attitude of TNR's longtime owner, the bigoted Martin Peretz, should be mentioned here. Peretz's dossier of racist hits (mostly at the expense of blacks and Arabs) is shameful, and one does not have to look hard to find evidence of it in Peretz's writing or in the sensibility of the magazine during his ownership. In 1984, long before Sullivan was tapped to helm TNR, Charles Murray was dubbing affirmative action a form of "new racism" that targeted white people.
     

    TNR made a habit of "reflecting briefly" on matters that were life and death to black people but were mostly abstract thought experiments to the magazine's editors. Before, during, and after Sullivan's tenure, the magazine seemed to believe that the kind of racism that mattered most was best evidenced in the evils of Afrocentrism, the excesses of multiculturalism, and the machinations of Jesse Jackson. It's true that TNR's staff roundly objected to excerpting The Bell Curve, but I was never quite sure why. Sullivan was simply exposing the dark premise that lay beneath much of the magazine's coverage of America's ancient dilemma.
     
    http://www.theatlantic.com/ta-nehisi-coates/

    He’s not a ‘black intellectual’. He’s an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He’s not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent ‘black intellectual’ might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Gates is a reasonably worthy and respectable filler of the post of top black intellectual but he's not getting any younger. Who is in the pipeline to replace him?
    , @syonredux

    He’s not a ‘black intellectual’. He’s an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He’s not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.
     
    MMMM, I probably should have used emoticons.....Let's just say that any praise that I offer Coates is of the ironic variety

    The most prominent ‘black intellectual’ might be Henry Louis Gates
     
    Gates did some decent scholarship* a long time ago (Signifying Monkey, etc) but he seems to mostly do middlebrow stuff these days (cf his genealogy specials for PBS, etc)

    or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).
     
    Tyson actually makes me miss Carl Sagan, which is saying something


    * Of course, the big problem with Gates' academic career lies in the fact that Black literature is largely a mediocre affair. It's read for political, not aesthetic, reasons
    , @Francis
    The same Carl Rowan who shot that kid in his pool?
    , @syonredux

    As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.
     
    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:


    Carl Thomas Rowan (August 11, 1925 - September 23, 2000)
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  68. How long before Law and Order SVU dramatizes this story as true, (Ripped from the Headlines?) And they’ll probably make “Jackie” some sort of NAM, or maybe even be daring and make her an AM (the whole frat had yellow fever). They redid the Dominique Strauss-Kahn story in a way that fit the narrative.

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    • Replies: @CJ
    How long before Law and Order SVU dramatizes this story as true, (Ripped from the Headlines?)

    No time at all, because they have done it already. This episode was probably the inspiration for Sandra Rubin Erdeley or "Jackie" or both:

    Law and Order: Girl Dishonored synopsis

    ... the detectives of the Special Victims Unit investigate the alleged gang rape of a sorority pledge on a college campus ... they unearth a widespread university culture of school administrators and students that look the other way instead of protecting their own ... the detectives find multiple victims from the fraternity that raped her and discover that the fraternity is known as The Rape Factory ... one of the fraternity brothers, who had participated in a different rape and felt guilty about it, to reveal that Lindsey was telling the truth about the rape and turn over a cell phone video where the rapists brag that they gang-raped her. They are arrested while the school Dean and chief security officer are arrested for accessory to rape for their roles in the cover-up ... memorial is held for Lindsey with students holding up signs with the various statements people used to cover up the various rapes.
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  69. OT but back in UK, some bad boy leaked the Labour Party “how to stop UKIP” campaigning document.

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03138/CampaigningAgainst_3138005a.pdf

    I haven’t had time to read it but the Telegraph summary is very ISteveish

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11290407/Labours-secret-Ukip-strategy-full-details-of-what-the-party-admits-in-leaked-document.html

    Most likely to switch from Labour to UKIP ? Male, older, not university educated, lives in Yorkshire – in fact a stereotypical working class male, the sort of people who founded the Labour Party.

    Least likely to switch ? Black, female, university educated, lives in Scotland. The bad news for Labour is that there are very few black females living in Scotland, educated or no.

    ““Monitoring local UKIP activity will play a key part in Labour’s attack and rebuttal work against UKIP,” the document says.

    Statements by UKIP candidates and councillors and copy on UKIP campaign materials can be used in counter-UKIP campaigning at the local and national level.

    “Therefore, all local parties should collect any UKIP materials distributed in your constituency, and monitor the social media accounts of UKIP candidates and councillors. Please send all UKIP leaflets and any relevant UKIP social media activity to [email protected].” “

    And they are doing just that – this is one cause in which Labour and Tories are united. But it seems to be getting less effective.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/uk-britain-politics-ukip-idUKKBN0JT1P320141215

    “The past weeks have brought a squall of bad publicity.

    First, Nigel Farage, UKIP’s leader, came under pressure after saying hotels should have the right to ask breastfeeding mothers to sit in the corner. The party’s general secretary was then suspended after being accused of sexual harassment by a woman who said UKIP was rife with racism and sexism.

    And more recently, the battle to become UKIP’s candidate for a seat in Essex, southern England, turned sour after one contender withdrew after his expenses were queried and the successful candidate, Kerry Smith, quit after being recorded making insulting remarks about gays and Chinese people.

    In another embarrassing disclosure, David Soutter, the official charged with vetting UKIP candidates, was recorded complaining he spent half his time “weeding out the lunatics.”

    Yet UKIP’s ratings remain resilient.

    A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times this weekend put it at 16 percent, behind the Conservatives and Labour on 32 percent each. A poll just under three weeks ago by YouGov also gave UKIP 16 percent.”

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    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Least likely to switch ? Black, female, university educated, lives in Scotland. The bad news for Labour is that there are very few black females living in Scotland, educated or no.
     
    LOL!!! Awesome.

    Unfortunately, Labour will do everything it can to "fix" that problem.

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  70. You keep mentioning “catfishing”. Is this your way of amusing yourself with the sexual innuendo?

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  71. @Hard Line Realist
    I have noticed that some have pointed to the recent DoJ document on rape and sexual assault as assaulting the traditional 1/5 numbers (or even the more recent claims by some that women have a lifetime 1/3 chance of being raped):

    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

    It should be pointed out that caution should be used with that document, because one method of calculating lifetime probability of rape seems to get close to 1 in 5.

    Assuming the number of 6.1/1000 during the college years, and that before age 10 and after age 40 females are vanishingly likely to be raped, we still have 30 years to account for.

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 - 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.

    The flaw, I suspect is that the probability still falls away drastically outside the peak fertility years ... so 30 years is wrong and a piece wise calculation is required.

    Of course,

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 – 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.

    Your calculation is fine (although technically you’re talking about 31 years), but you described it wrong in one spot. According to your source, the probability of not getting raped in any year is .9939, as you said the first time (1 -.0061), but not the second time (.0061). It also relies on a dubious but convenient assumption that the rate stays constant over the period in question, but it’s probably close enough.

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    • Replies: @Hard Line Realist
    I hear that the current claim is that all women have a 1/3 chance of being raped over their life times.

    I guess that in a couple of years that will be reduced to 1/2 and then 100%.
    , @The most deplorable one

    although technically you’re talking about 31 years
     
    Hmmm, I can see that it is harder to figure these things out than I thought, because I hadn't thought of that method of working out the lifetime probability.

    However, by that approach, the probability of not getting raped for one year is (1-0.0061)^1, for two years is (1-0.0061)^2, for three years is (1-0.0061)^3 and so on.

    So, it seems that (1-0.0061)^30 is correct for 30 years.

    On the other hand, if you look closely at the report quoted, you see that that number is the average over the period of 1997 to 2013 and the numbers have been declining. They also give numbers for outside the years 18-24.

    So, the numbers for 2013 were 4.3/1000 for college age women (18-24) and 1.4/1000 outside the college years and these are all forms (completed rape, attempted rape, threat of rape and sexual assault). Also, outside college age is listed as 12 and up, but it seems likely that the probability falls drastically away from even the 1.4 number after, say, age 50.

    So, my calculation is that it is no more than: 0.92. That is, the probability of rape or sexual assault in 2013 or latter (assuming a continued decline) over the life of a female in the US is less than 1/10. (Less for a couple of reasons. I think that surveys are a reasonable way to assess things but they likely suffer from people claiming things that did not happen or that they have confused. However, it seems unlikely that someone who was actually raped who responded to the survey would respond in the negative.)

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  72. “Least likely to switch ? Black, female, university educated, lives in Scotland. The bad news for Labour is that there are very few black females living in Scotland, educated or no.”

    This is how you know there are very few Blacks living in Scotland, look at how White the Scottish national football team is.
    You can tell which European countries have a large Black population and which ones do not by looking at the racial demographics of their football teams.

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  73. @Anonymous Nephew
    OT but back in UK, some bad boy leaked the Labour Party "how to stop UKIP" campaigning document.

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03138/CampaigningAgainst_3138005a.pdf

    I haven't had time to read it but the Telegraph summary is very ISteveish

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11290407/Labours-secret-Ukip-strategy-full-details-of-what-the-party-admits-in-leaked-document.html


    Most likely to switch from Labour to UKIP ? Male, older, not university educated, lives in Yorkshire - in fact a stereotypical working class male, the sort of people who founded the Labour Party.

    Least likely to switch ? Black, female, university educated, lives in Scotland. The bad news for Labour is that there are very few black females living in Scotland, educated or no.


    "“Monitoring local UKIP activity will play a key part in Labour’s attack and rebuttal work against UKIP,” the document says.

    Statements by UKIP candidates and councillors and copy on UKIP campaign materials can be used in counter-UKIP campaigning at the local and national level.

    “Therefore, all local parties should collect any UKIP materials distributed in your constituency, and monitor the social media accounts of UKIP candidates and councillors. Please send all UKIP leaflets and any relevant UKIP social media activity to [email protected]
    "
     
    And they are doing just that - this is one cause in which Labour and Tories are united. But it seems to be getting less effective.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/uk-britain-politics-ukip-idUKKBN0JT1P320141215

    "The past weeks have brought a squall of bad publicity.

    First, Nigel Farage, UKIP's leader, came under pressure after saying hotels should have the right to ask breastfeeding mothers to sit in the corner. The party's general secretary was then suspended after being accused of sexual harassment by a woman who said UKIP was rife with racism and sexism.

    And more recently, the battle to become UKIP's candidate for a seat in Essex, southern England, turned sour after one contender withdrew after his expenses were queried and the successful candidate, Kerry Smith, quit after being recorded making insulting remarks about gays and Chinese people.

    In another embarrassing disclosure, David Soutter, the official charged with vetting UKIP candidates, was recorded complaining he spent half his time "weeding out the lunatics."

    Yet UKIP's ratings remain resilient.

    A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times this weekend put it at 16 percent, behind the Conservatives and Labour on 32 percent each. A poll just under three weeks ago by YouGov also gave UKIP 16 percent."
     

    Least likely to switch ? Black, female, university educated, lives in Scotland. The bad news for Labour is that there are very few black females living in Scotland, educated or no.

    LOL!!! Awesome.

    Unfortunately, Labour will do everything it can to “fix” that problem.

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  74. Did just finally catch Gone Girl in the cheap theater with my girlfriend. Now that’s a lovely movie for a date.

    Never have I heard such a stunned, horrified silence from an audience in a movie theater when the credits rolled as I did last night.

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  75. Are my comments all going to the spam folder now?

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  76. I call him Tennessee Coates.

    What else to make of the article that made Stephen Glass’s career possible, “Taxi Cabs and the Meaning of Work”? The piece asserted that black people in D.C. were distinctly lacking in the work ethic best evidenced by immigrant cab drivers. A surrealist comedy, Glass’s piece revels in the alleged exploits of a mythical Asian-American avenger—Kae Bang—who wreaks havoc on black criminals who’d rather rob taxi drivers than work. The article concludes with Glass, in the cab, while its driver is robbed by a black man. It was all lies.

    The driver wasn’t robbed by a black, but he could have been. The important thing is that we stay focused on the real problem – black criminality. Blacks can benefit from having their criminality highlighted. No one wins when it becomes a story about false accusations by Jewish guys, which are only 1% of all racist accusations.

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  77. @Art Deco
    He's not a 'black intellectual'. He's an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He's not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he's a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent 'black intellectual' might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

    Gates is a reasonably worthy and respectable filler of the post of top black intellectual but he’s not getting any younger. Who is in the pipeline to replace him?

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    I doubt anyone. The profession of 'public intellectual' is disappearing outside the realm of academic blogging. If you go back 30 years, you had some scholarly and semi-scholarly figures employed by magazines (e.g. Leon Wieseltier or the young Charles Krauthammer) and you had academics with general audiences (e.g. Seymour Martin Lipset or Erik v. Kuenheldt Leddihn). And, of course, there was George Will. National Review and The New Criterion have a stable of academic types who write for them, but their number is dwindling and there is not one born after about 1960.
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  78. Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?

    http://theweek.com/article/index/273258/the-rape-culture-that-everyone-ignores

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?

    It's not odd at all. They're campus feminists. It's an aspect of their worldview is that the interests and sensibilities of women are important and those of the other part of humanity are not. They'd only take an interest in convicts as a cudgel to injure the reputations of law enforcement. Convicts are out of sight and out of mind, but male students are right in front of them and are their preferred objects of socially-sanctioned aggression.
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  79. @Danindc
    Obvious catfishing by Jackie. It always bothers me when ppl say Manti Teo was catfished. He wasn't. He made the entire dead girlfriend up to get positive PR for his Heisman run and pro career. Sooo many people still don't understand this.

    Did Teo make up the dead girlfriend to cover up being gay or is he straight and just made her up to attract media attention?

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    • Replies: @Danindc
    He's not the least bit gay, at least I don't think. Middle linebacker doesn't lend itself to that persuasion. I heard he got laid a ton on campus fwiw. He is a sociopath though. The media covered up his weirdness.
    , @John
    To be honest, at least from what I last remember reading about the Te'o story, I think some friends/cousins/acquaintances pulled a prank on Te'o. He actually did speak on the phone with a girl, who claimed to be his Stanford girlfriend. His friends probably thought that he'd eventually figure out the joke, but he just never did. It then got to the point that Te'o was going to try to meet this girl in person, so the pranksters had to kill her off to avoid that disaster. At that point it became the perfect sob story for a Heisman trophy campaign. I believe that he DID falsify a bit of the back story to the media, because he didn't want it to appear that he had some online-girlfriend that he had never met in person. Te'o is a Mormon and therefore most likely didn't have much experience with the ladies, so I believe he could have actually been tricked. Three scenarios: 1) He completely fabricated this story from beginning to end; 2) He was tricked and actually had his heart broken when his girlfriend passed; 3) He could have figured it out at some point during the prank but was too invested in the narrative to let facts get in the way of a good story. Either way, it was impossible for him to come out of this situation looking good.
    , @D. K.
    Peruse the Wikipedia entry for Manti Te'o, which includes a dedicated section on the infamous "catfishing" hoax. He was the victim of that hoax, nothing more. I assume that Danindc is just another run-of-the-mill Notre Dame hater....
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  80. OT: Drudge has this up right now: Tensions surface as Australian Muslims fear Sydney siege backlash

    Can’t the minority community for once allow the majority community at least to catch its breathe from the “frontlash” before they’re forced to worry about the (nonexistent) backlash?

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  81. @Art Deco
    He's not a 'black intellectual'. He's an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He's not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he's a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent 'black intellectual' might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

    He’s not a ‘black intellectual’. He’s an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He’s not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    MMMM, I probably should have used emoticons…..Let’s just say that any praise that I offer Coates is of the ironic variety

    The most prominent ‘black intellectual’ might be Henry Louis Gates

    Gates did some decent scholarship* a long time ago (Signifying Monkey, etc) but he seems to mostly do middlebrow stuff these days (cf his genealogy specials for PBS, etc)

    or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

    Tyson actually makes me miss Carl Sagan, which is saying something

    * Of course, the big problem with Gates’ academic career lies in the fact that Black literature is largely a mediocre affair. It’s read for political, not aesthetic, reasons

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  82. @Art Deco
    He's not a 'black intellectual'. He's an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He's not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he's a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent 'black intellectual' might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

    The same Carl Rowan who shot that kid in his pool?

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Yes. What, you fancy putting some lead in a trespasser invalidates everything he ever did?
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  83. @Art Deco
    He's not a 'black intellectual'. He's an opinion journalist notable for an ability to turn in copy on time. He's not notable for any sort of erudition or insight. As an opinion journalist, he's a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    The most prominent 'black intellectual' might be Henry Louis Gates or it might be Neil deGrasse Tyson (neither of whom has an employment history that much resembles that of TN Coates).

    As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.

    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:

    Carl Thomas Rowan (August 11, 1925 – September 23, 2000)

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:

    So what? In his prime, he's not as good as Rowan was collecting Social Security. The point was a comparison.
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  84. “Gates did some decent scholarship* a long time ago (Signifying Monkey, etc) but he seems to mostly do middlebrow stuff these days (cf his genealogy specials for PBS, etc)”

    Henry Louis Gates is obsessed with finding Black admixture in White people.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Henry Louis Gates' middlebrow DNA ancestry shows are a pretty good thing for an aging academic to do.
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  85. I bitched about the indirect nature of that story over at Bradley’s website last week. Someone said that it was just fine, leaving the reader to fill in the blanks. When did that become journalism?

    As for catfishing, that documentary may be when the name was given it, but I’m surprised no one mentioned the first major case of it, which ended in murder: http://www.foxnews.com/story/2007/01/21/22-year-old-new-york-man-murdered-after-being-drawn-into-internet-love-triangle/

    Best black intellectual: Glenn Loury

    I’m not a huge fan of McWhorter, who likes to think he’s all truth to power, but as next generations go, he’s about it.

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  86. Read More
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  87. @Jefferson
    "Gates did some decent scholarship* a long time ago (Signifying Monkey, etc) but he seems to mostly do middlebrow stuff these days (cf his genealogy specials for PBS, etc)"

    Henry Louis Gates is obsessed with finding Black admixture in White people.

    Henry Louis Gates’ middlebrow DNA ancestry shows are a pretty good thing for an aging academic to do.

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  88. “OT:

    Loser leftist chic who coined #illridewithyou is making the most of her 15 minutes of twitter fame…

    https://twitter.com/sirtessa?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeed.com%2Falanwhite%2Faustralians-offer-to-ride-to-work-with-people-in-religious-a&tw_i=544363242655449088&tw_p=tweetembed&#8221;

    Whenever there is a terrorist attack on a Western country committed by Islamic extremists, Left Wingers are always more worried about potential backlash against Muslims from Westerners than they are about the dead bodies which were a result of Muslim terrorism.

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    • Replies: @anon
    In Australia, the originator of the meme, Tessa Kum, is being inundated with interview requests and appears to be emerging as the hero of the siege. But she has a backlog of racist rants against white people. I have contacted various Australian media people in the hope that they will bring this to light.

    I'm learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable. I hate the double standards and hypocrisy you display, the rank dishonesty of your conduct. I hate that you can harm us, when we cannot harm you. I hate that you have actually impacted on careers, multiple and not even directly, with your hypocrisy. I hate that you're so dominant in the publishing industry there's very few venues I'd consider safe to even submit to now. I hate what you have done to PoC I don't know. I hate what you have done to PoC I do know. I hate what you have done to me, and I was not involved.
     
    http://silence-without.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/the-long-campaign-against-racism-bogged.html
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  89. America, liberal democracy or Liberal oligarchy?

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    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    America, liberal democracy or Liberal oligarchy?

    This reminds me of the title of a political debate broadcast last week about our current economic and political system in the West. The title asked whether we have "a system in crisis or a system of crisis?" The way our political, media and cultural class loves to jerk us around, mess with our minds and generally keep us feeling edgy, guilty and alienated makes me vote for the second option.
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  90. @Steve Sailer
    Did Teo make up the dead girlfriend to cover up being gay or is he straight and just made her up to attract media attention?

    He’s not the least bit gay, at least I don’t think. Middle linebacker doesn’t lend itself to that persuasion. I heard he got laid a ton on campus fwiw. He is a sociopath though. The media covered up his weirdness.

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  91. @Steve Sailer
    Gates is a reasonably worthy and respectable filler of the post of top black intellectual but he's not getting any younger. Who is in the pipeline to replace him?

    I doubt anyone. The profession of ‘public intellectual’ is disappearing outside the realm of academic blogging. If you go back 30 years, you had some scholarly and semi-scholarly figures employed by magazines (e.g. Leon Wieseltier or the young Charles Krauthammer) and you had academics with general audiences (e.g. Seymour Martin Lipset or Erik v. Kuenheldt Leddihn). And, of course, there was George Will. National Review and The New Criterion have a stable of academic types who write for them, but their number is dwindling and there is not one born after about 1960.

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  92. @syonredux

    As an opinion journalist, he’s a couple of cuts below Carl Rowan (to take one example), who had a breadth of experience (in the Navy, the diplomatic corps, the U.S. Information Agency, and as an editor at the Detroit News) as well as being a capable (and much more concise) exponent in print and on public television.
     
    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:


    Carl Thomas Rowan (August 11, 1925 - September 23, 2000)

    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:

    So what? In his prime, he’s not as good as Rowan was collecting Social Security. The point was a comparison.

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    • Replies: @syonredux

    So what? In his prime, he’s not as good as Rowan was collecting Social Security. The point was a comparison.
     
    Yes, a comparison between the living and the dead.....
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  93. @Francis
    The same Carl Rowan who shot that kid in his pool?

    Yes. What, you fancy putting some lead in a trespasser invalidates everything he ever did?

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  94. Read More
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  95. @Filmer
    I don't at all doubt that the liberal media is circling the wagons, but I also think that they are deliberately protecting Jackie. The catfishing angle makes her look really bad, and I suspect that they believe that pointing it out would just be piling on since she is already disgraced.

    Jackie is probably a pretty messed up person, and piling onto her would be needlessly nasty. There were a few people whose job it was to make sure they didn’t air a bunch of reputation-destroying fantasies from a crazy person, but Jackie isn’t really any of them.

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    • Replies: @Francis
    Maybe a few years in jail would help her out. What's the time for a rapist?
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  96. @syonredux
    Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?

    http://theweek.com/article/index/273258/the-rape-culture-that-everyone-ignores

    Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?

    It’s not odd at all. They’re campus feminists. It’s an aspect of their worldview is that the interests and sensibilities of women are important and those of the other part of humanity are not. They’d only take an interest in convicts as a cudgel to injure the reputations of law enforcement. Convicts are out of sight and out of mind, but male students are right in front of them and are their preferred objects of socially-sanctioned aggression.

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  97. @Steve Sailer
    Did Teo make up the dead girlfriend to cover up being gay or is he straight and just made her up to attract media attention?

    To be honest, at least from what I last remember reading about the Te’o story, I think some friends/cousins/acquaintances pulled a prank on Te’o. He actually did speak on the phone with a girl, who claimed to be his Stanford girlfriend. His friends probably thought that he’d eventually figure out the joke, but he just never did. It then got to the point that Te’o was going to try to meet this girl in person, so the pranksters had to kill her off to avoid that disaster. At that point it became the perfect sob story for a Heisman trophy campaign. I believe that he DID falsify a bit of the back story to the media, because he didn’t want it to appear that he had some online-girlfriend that he had never met in person. Te’o is a Mormon and therefore most likely didn’t have much experience with the ladies, so I believe he could have actually been tricked. Three scenarios: 1) He completely fabricated this story from beginning to end; 2) He was tricked and actually had his heart broken when his girlfriend passed; 3) He could have figured it out at some point during the prank but was too invested in the narrative to let facts get in the way of a good story. Either way, it was impossible for him to come out of this situation looking good.

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  98. Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?

    Prison rape is pretty rare. Less than 1% of all convicts surveyed reported being raped. I was unable to find a specific number, because the results were reported on (opaquely) but not released, at least back when I checked.

    Prison rape has a very different use in The Narrative; it’s used to terrify white men with the threat of prison. The reality is, prison rape is largely a myth. So, the writers of The Narrative will tend to perpetuate the myth of prison rape, but treat it more like just desserts than something to be stopped. Plus, the perps are all homos. So, if they do highlight stories, they’ll tend to be about “Navy gay” types gang-raping “flaming gay” types.

    Whenever there is a terrorist attack on a Western country committed by Islamic extremists, Left Wingers are always more worried about potential backlash against Muslims from Westerners than they are about the dead bodies which were a result of Muslim terrorism.

    Maybe they’re grading on a curve; they think Muslim populations are so inferior to European populations that spitting on someone and kidnapping/murder are equally bad, after “correcting.”

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts.
    , @Ben Tzot-Abrit

    The reality is, prison rape is largely a myth. So, the writers of The Narrative will tend to perpetuate the myth of prison rape, but treat it more like just desserts than something to be stopped.
     
    You are right that the MSM treats prison rape as "just desserts." It should be a national scandal that we have essentially a state-subsidized system of sexual slavery in the prison system. Hollywood treats this as a source of light humor not because it is a "myth," but presumably because the victims are men.
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  99. An actual campus hate crime!

    http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/20511/

    (Conservative student victimized by vandals.)

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  100. @Svigor

    Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?
     
    Prison rape is pretty rare. Less than 1% of all convicts surveyed reported being raped. I was unable to find a specific number, because the results were reported on (opaquely) but not released, at least back when I checked.

    Prison rape has a very different use in The Narrative; it's used to terrify white men with the threat of prison. The reality is, prison rape is largely a myth. So, the writers of The Narrative will tend to perpetuate the myth of prison rape, but treat it more like just desserts than something to be stopped. Plus, the perps are all homos. So, if they do highlight stories, they'll tend to be about "Navy gay" types gang-raping "flaming gay" types.

    Whenever there is a terrorist attack on a Western country committed by Islamic extremists, Left Wingers are always more worried about potential backlash against Muslims from Westerners than they are about the dead bodies which were a result of Muslim terrorism.
     
    Maybe they're grading on a curve; they think Muslim populations are so inferior to European populations that spitting on someone and kidnapping/murder are equally bad, after "correcting."

    But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts.

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    • Replies: @syonredux
    "But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts."

    Among their findings in Sexual Violence in the Texas Prison System:
    White inmates are attacked more than any other race. Nearly 60 percent of the 43 "sustained" incidents—those proven to be true by an investigation—involved a white victim.
     
    http://www.nij.gov/journals/259/Pages/prison-rape.aspx

    Racial gangs are rampant in prison, and sexual assault is often racial in nature. Reflecting a racial power structure that is the inverse of U.S. society, due to the over representation of African-Americans and Hispanics in prison, prison rape is often perpetrated by African-Americans onto whites. As a result, inmates who entered prison without racial prejudice develop strong animosity towards the race of their assaulter.
     
    http://open.salon.com/blog/moses_mendoza/2009/06/04/plight_of_the_punks_prison_rape_in_the_united_states
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  101. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Jefferson
    "OT:

    Loser leftist chic who coined #illridewithyou is making the most of her 15 minutes of twitter fame…

    https://twitter.com/sirtessa?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeed.com%2Falanwhite%2Faustralians-offer-to-ride-to-work-with-people-in-religious-a&tw_i=544363242655449088&tw_p=tweetembed"

    Whenever there is a terrorist attack on a Western country committed by Islamic extremists, Left Wingers are always more worried about potential backlash against Muslims from Westerners than they are about the dead bodies which were a result of Muslim terrorism.

    In Australia, the originator of the meme, Tessa Kum, is being inundated with interview requests and appears to be emerging as the hero of the siege. But she has a backlog of racist rants against white people. I have contacted various Australian media people in the hope that they will bring this to light.

    I’m learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable. I hate the double standards and hypocrisy you display, the rank dishonesty of your conduct. I hate that you can harm us, when we cannot harm you. I hate that you have actually impacted on careers, multiple and not even directly, with your hypocrisy. I hate that you’re so dominant in the publishing industry there’s very few venues I’d consider safe to even submit to now. I hate what you have done to PoC I don’t know. I hate what you have done to PoC I do know. I hate what you have done to me, and I was not involved.

    http://silence-without.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/the-long-campaign-against-racism-bogged.html

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thank, I'll post.
    , @IBC

    I’m learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable.

     

    Maybe she should consider immigrating to South Korea?
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  102. @NOTA
    Jackie is probably a pretty messed up person, and piling onto her would be needlessly nasty. There were a few people whose job it was to make sure they didn't air a bunch of reputation-destroying fantasies from a crazy person, but Jackie isn't really any of them.

    Maybe a few years in jail would help her out. What’s the time for a rapist?

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  103. @ben tillman

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 – 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.
     
    Your calculation is fine (although technically you're talking about 31 years), but you described it wrong in one spot. According to your source, the probability of not getting raped in any year is .9939, as you said the first time (1 -.0061), but not the second time (.0061). It also relies on a dubious but convenient assumption that the rate stays constant over the period in question, but it's probably close enough.

    I hear that the current claim is that all women have a 1/3 chance of being raped over their life times.

    I guess that in a couple of years that will be reduced to 1/2 and then 100%.

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  104. @Art Deco
    Yeah, but TNC enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of being alive:

    So what? In his prime, he's not as good as Rowan was collecting Social Security. The point was a comparison.

    So what? In his prime, he’s not as good as Rowan was collecting Social Security. The point was a comparison.

    Yes, a comparison between the living and the dead…..

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  105. @Steve Sailer
    But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts.

    “But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts.”

    Among their findings in Sexual Violence in the Texas Prison System:
    White inmates are attacked more than any other race. Nearly 60 percent of the 43 “sustained” incidents—those proven to be true by an investigation—involved a white victim.

    http://www.nij.gov/journals/259/Pages/prison-rape.aspx

    Racial gangs are rampant in prison, and sexual assault is often racial in nature. Reflecting a racial power structure that is the inverse of U.S. society, due to the over representation of African-Americans and Hispanics in prison, prison rape is often perpetrated by African-Americans onto whites. As a result, inmates who entered prison without racial prejudice develop strong animosity towards the race of their assaulter.

    http://open.salon.com/blog/moses_mendoza/2009/06/04/plight_of_the_punks_prison_rape_in_the_united_states

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  106. @Priss Factor
    America, liberal democracy or Liberal oligarchy?

    America, liberal democracy or Liberal oligarchy?

    This reminds me of the title of a political debate broadcast last week about our current economic and political system in the West. The title asked whether we have “a system in crisis or a system of crisis?” The way our political, media and cultural class loves to jerk us around, mess with our minds and generally keep us feeling edgy, guilty and alienated makes me vote for the second option.

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  107. @anon
    In Australia, the originator of the meme, Tessa Kum, is being inundated with interview requests and appears to be emerging as the hero of the siege. But she has a backlog of racist rants against white people. I have contacted various Australian media people in the hope that they will bring this to light.

    I'm learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable. I hate the double standards and hypocrisy you display, the rank dishonesty of your conduct. I hate that you can harm us, when we cannot harm you. I hate that you have actually impacted on careers, multiple and not even directly, with your hypocrisy. I hate that you're so dominant in the publishing industry there's very few venues I'd consider safe to even submit to now. I hate what you have done to PoC I don't know. I hate what you have done to PoC I do know. I hate what you have done to me, and I was not involved.
     
    http://silence-without.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/the-long-campaign-against-racism-bogged.html

    Thank, I’ll post.

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  108. MLK – Inexplicably, folks of your mien never note, to cite just one example, Jews like this one

    http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2014/12/college_rape_campus_sexual_assault_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html

    I don’t have any problem noting that Jews have been (a) at the heart of the problem in this story – that is, Sabrina Rubin Erdely: (b) that they’re conspicuous by their presence in the ranks of the feminists pushing rape myths – e.g Anna Merlan, and (c) that they are among those debunking the rape myths, e.g. Emily Yoffe. If you’ve been following this story you’ll also have wound up up reading reports by Hannah Rosin, Jennifer Rubin, Jonah Goldberg, and various other Jewish pundits. The Washington Post sent a reporter to UVA to try to get to the bottom of things. That would be T. Rees Shapiro.

    I know that Noticing Things is taboo, but it’s hard not to notice that this entire stramash is almost entirely an argument being conducted between a very small group of people from one very small ethnic group. And that’s not healthy for the spirit of public debate. This has nothing to do with the small ethnic group in question being Jewish – if everyone involved were Albanian we’d still be entitled to wonder why discussion of issues important to Americans was being dominated by a handful of Albanians.

    And if the Albanian reporters were writing things like the following we’d be perfectly entitled to wonder if they were prone to imposing their own beliefs on what is, at the end of the day, supposed to be the American news. In fact I imagine you’d be wondering that yourself.

    “What makes Albanian ritual and communal practice meaningful isn’t just the words or rituals themselves; it’s that they’re a concrete connection to the people who came before us. Participating in Albanian cultural life places us in a long line of people who are like us. The fact that my parents, and grandparents, and their parents, have all been Albanians matters to me. It matters to me, and people like me, that we remain Albanians. And I think that settles the question. Hopefully, I’ll try to flesh out this Albanian identity I’ve carved out for myself implicitly in the news I cover rather than subjecting you to more ponderous reflection.”

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  109. @anon
    In Australia, the originator of the meme, Tessa Kum, is being inundated with interview requests and appears to be emerging as the hero of the siege. But she has a backlog of racist rants against white people. I have contacted various Australian media people in the hope that they will bring this to light.

    I'm learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable. I hate the double standards and hypocrisy you display, the rank dishonesty of your conduct. I hate that you can harm us, when we cannot harm you. I hate that you have actually impacted on careers, multiple and not even directly, with your hypocrisy. I hate that you're so dominant in the publishing industry there's very few venues I'd consider safe to even submit to now. I hate what you have done to PoC I don't know. I hate what you have done to PoC I do know. I hate what you have done to me, and I was not involved.
     
    http://silence-without.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/the-long-campaign-against-racism-bogged.html

    I’m learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable.

    Maybe she should consider immigrating to South Korea?

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  110. @Steve Sailer
    Did Teo make up the dead girlfriend to cover up being gay or is he straight and just made her up to attract media attention?

    Peruse the Wikipedia entry for Manti Te’o, which includes a dedicated section on the infamous “catfishing” hoax. He was the victim of that hoax, nothing more. I assume that Danindc is just another run-of-the-mill Notre Dame hater….

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    • Replies: @Danindc
    I don't care enough to hate a college. You have to believe 50 far-fetched scenarios to think Teo was catfished (not visiting her while in CA, the fact he gave phone records in an excel spreadsheet anyone could make as proof of his calls) and only one to think he was lying from the start.
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  111. “I’m learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable.”

    Tessa Kum is Eurasian but she hates her White half. She is the extreme opposite of Elliott Rodger who loved his White half and bragged about being a descendent of British aristocracy.

    He thought he was entitled to have a girlfriend because of his White ancestry.

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  112. @D. K.
    Peruse the Wikipedia entry for Manti Te'o, which includes a dedicated section on the infamous "catfishing" hoax. He was the victim of that hoax, nothing more. I assume that Danindc is just another run-of-the-mill Notre Dame hater....

    I don’t care enough to hate a college. You have to believe 50 far-fetched scenarios to think Teo was catfished (not visiting her while in CA, the fact he gave phone records in an excel spreadsheet anyone could make as proof of his calls) and only one to think he was lying from the start.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    You, on the other hand, believe that he constructed this plot to win the Heisman Trophy-- something which he would not have been a finalist for if Notre Dame had not lucked into an undefeated season, despite his own outstanding play (prior to the championship game against Alabama). As a Notre Dame fan for the past half century, no one whom I know, including my two older brothers, both of whom graduated from there, back in the day, ever would have imagined Notre Dame's running the table in 2012, nor Te'o's winning the Heisman, that year, as a defensive player. Did he arrange to have other athletes introduced to a woman using the same name, even before the Te'o hoax had began, by the same man who later confessed to being behind the entire plot? Did Te'o pay that young man to go on national television to confess not only to "catfishing" Te'o, but to falling in love with him, too? Do you suppose that Te'o paid someone to murder his grandmother, that September, too, while he was at it, or was her death just something that he happened to luck into, along the way, in his sociopathic quest to win the Heisman Trophy as a defensive player?
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  113. @Svigor

    Does anyone else find it odd that campus rape (a fairly rare thing) gets all the attention while prison rape (quite common) goes unnoticed?
     
    Prison rape is pretty rare. Less than 1% of all convicts surveyed reported being raped. I was unable to find a specific number, because the results were reported on (opaquely) but not released, at least back when I checked.

    Prison rape has a very different use in The Narrative; it's used to terrify white men with the threat of prison. The reality is, prison rape is largely a myth. So, the writers of The Narrative will tend to perpetuate the myth of prison rape, but treat it more like just desserts than something to be stopped. Plus, the perps are all homos. So, if they do highlight stories, they'll tend to be about "Navy gay" types gang-raping "flaming gay" types.

    Whenever there is a terrorist attack on a Western country committed by Islamic extremists, Left Wingers are always more worried about potential backlash against Muslims from Westerners than they are about the dead bodies which were a result of Muslim terrorism.
     
    Maybe they're grading on a curve; they think Muslim populations are so inferior to European populations that spitting on someone and kidnapping/murder are equally bad, after "correcting."

    The reality is, prison rape is largely a myth. So, the writers of The Narrative will tend to perpetuate the myth of prison rape, but treat it more like just desserts than something to be stopped.

    You are right that the MSM treats prison rape as “just desserts.” It should be a national scandal that we have essentially a state-subsidized system of sexual slavery in the prison system. Hollywood treats this as a source of light humor not because it is a “myth,” but presumably because the victims are men.

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  114. I would love steve to focus his hoax sniffing focus on the unlikely event known as sandy hook.

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  115. Looks like the final nails are being driven in the coffin of Jackie’s story:

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/15/friends-uva-rape-accuser-begin-doubt-story/?page=1

    The numbers the “upperclassman” texts came from were numbers connected to internet services used to text.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks, I'll post.
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  116. The Sapir-Whorf/Orwell effect of vocabulary is even more fundamental to this issue than you seem to realize, because it is not just the word “catfish” that is missing from the conceptual larder, but, in fact, an actual word for what allegedly happened to Jackie. The word “rape,” you see, is a euphemism, meaning abduction (related to the word “raptor”) with sexual relations only implied. It is hard to draw boundaries around something only implied by the word that designates it. Searching the thesaurus, one only finds words that reference the idea of “honor,” such as “violate” or “despoil,” or legal subcategories, such as “sexual assault.”
    I think that this points to a very important perspective. The idea of “Rape” as a crime is in important ways about controlling one’s and one’s family’s offspring, rather than sex or power. It is tied up with the idea of “honor,” particularly “family honor,” so much so that honor can only be restored in some cultures by the killing or suicide of the victim. This is the case in ancient Roman stories such as the Rape of Lucretia, as well as in present day news reports from Pakistan. An alternative method of restoring honor, for the bold or the powerful, was vengeance and vendetta. Fortunately, the western world invented mechanisms short of death to restore a victim’s honor. These include societal mechanisms for impugning the honor of the perpetrator, the solicitation of sympathy for the victim, and the criminal prosecution of the rapist.
    In the present day world of the college campus, we have a wide variety of circumstances and a lack of appropriate words. Thus everyone from Todd Akins (“legitimate rape”) to Whoopi Goldberg (“rape rape”) has struggled to express the distinction between the paradigmatic stranger assault with violence and the various forms of dishonor which the drunken coed might find visited upon herself. Without the words to divide categories, we find commentators citing the 1-in-5 college women are subject to some form of “sexual assault” as 1-in-5 college women are “raped” (self-righteously and with no sense that they have made a major categorical confusion). We have women who want their “rapist” sex partners shamed, or expelled from campus, but not criminally prosecuted (I suggest, because they want their honor restored), while outside commentators cannot understand why they are not handed over to the police. Yet none of this seems to be discussable, because we lack both the vocabulary and the conceptual framework for conducting such a conversation.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Excellent points. That explains Dean Eramo's much denounced interview where she explains that all a lot of these girls want is to tell off the boy in front of an authority figure -- it is to restore honor.
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  117. @Danindc
    I don't care enough to hate a college. You have to believe 50 far-fetched scenarios to think Teo was catfished (not visiting her while in CA, the fact he gave phone records in an excel spreadsheet anyone could make as proof of his calls) and only one to think he was lying from the start.

    You, on the other hand, believe that he constructed this plot to win the Heisman Trophy– something which he would not have been a finalist for if Notre Dame had not lucked into an undefeated season, despite his own outstanding play (prior to the championship game against Alabama). As a Notre Dame fan for the past half century, no one whom I know, including my two older brothers, both of whom graduated from there, back in the day, ever would have imagined Notre Dame’s running the table in 2012, nor Te’o’s winning the Heisman, that year, as a defensive player. Did he arrange to have other athletes introduced to a woman using the same name, even before the Te’o hoax had began, by the same man who later confessed to being behind the entire plot? Did Te’o pay that young man to go on national television to confess not only to “catfishing” Te’o, but to falling in love with him, too? Do you suppose that Te’o paid someone to murder his grandmother, that September, too, while he was at it, or was her death just something that he happened to luck into, along the way, in his sociopathic quest to win the Heisman Trophy as a defensive player?

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Anthropologists write a lot about Pacific Islanders and there's a fair amount of evidence that Islanders like to play elaborate pranks -- e.g., Margaret Mead in Samoa.
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  118. The problem with the cat fishing is that it shows premeditation. Jackie will inevitably end up being framed as someone with emotional issues rather than what she is, malicious and evil. Ultimately what we will hear is. “Leave the poor girl alone. She has had enough”. Erdely won’t have that option so she will have to fall on the sword; or be pushed on it.

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  119. @cloudswrest
    How long before Law and Order SVU dramatizes this story as true, (Ripped from the Headlines?) And they'll probably make "Jackie" some sort of NAM, or maybe even be daring and make her an AM (the whole frat had yellow fever). They redid the Dominique Strauss-Kahn story in a way that fit the narrative.

    How long before Law and Order SVU dramatizes this story as true, (Ripped from the Headlines?)

    No time at all, because they have done it already. This episode was probably the inspiration for Sandra Rubin Erdeley or “Jackie” or both:

    Law and Order: Girl Dishonored synopsis

    … the detectives of the Special Victims Unit investigate the alleged gang rape of a sorority pledge on a college campus … they unearth a widespread university culture of school administrators and students that look the other way instead of protecting their own … the detectives find multiple victims from the fraternity that raped her and discover that the fraternity is known as The Rape Factory … one of the fraternity brothers, who had participated in a different rape and felt guilty about it, to reveal that Lindsey was telling the truth about the rape and turn over a cell phone video where the rapists brag that they gang-raped her. They are arrested while the school Dean and chief security officer are arrested for accessory to rape for their roles in the cover-up … memorial is held for Lindsey with students holding up signs with the various statements people used to cover up the various rapes.

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  120. @D. K.
    You, on the other hand, believe that he constructed this plot to win the Heisman Trophy-- something which he would not have been a finalist for if Notre Dame had not lucked into an undefeated season, despite his own outstanding play (prior to the championship game against Alabama). As a Notre Dame fan for the past half century, no one whom I know, including my two older brothers, both of whom graduated from there, back in the day, ever would have imagined Notre Dame's running the table in 2012, nor Te'o's winning the Heisman, that year, as a defensive player. Did he arrange to have other athletes introduced to a woman using the same name, even before the Te'o hoax had began, by the same man who later confessed to being behind the entire plot? Did Te'o pay that young man to go on national television to confess not only to "catfishing" Te'o, but to falling in love with him, too? Do you suppose that Te'o paid someone to murder his grandmother, that September, too, while he was at it, or was her death just something that he happened to luck into, along the way, in his sociopathic quest to win the Heisman Trophy as a defensive player?

    Anthropologists write a lot about Pacific Islanders and there’s a fair amount of evidence that Islanders like to play elaborate pranks — e.g., Margaret Mead in Samoa.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    Yes, Steve, and the young man with a homoerotic infatuation for the All-America linebacker from Notre Dame was also of that particular ethnic extraction-- as well as a close relative of a fairly famous NFL player, now retired, bearing the same last name! He introduced his female cousin to other NFL players, before he ever honed in on Manti Te'o, using the same name for her that he then used in the latter, now-infamous case. In addition to the fact that the theory that Te'o had concocted the entire scheme in a failed long-shot attempt to win the Heisman Trophy, as a strictly defensive player, before Notre Dame's highly improbable 12-0 regular season-- they were unranked when the season began!-- even had begun, in September 2012, is ridiculous on its face, Te'o is a devout Mormon, for whom such Machiavellian behavior is highly implausible. The man behind the "Catfishing" show had no difficulty in believing that Te'o could have been manipulated as he was.
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  121. @candid_observer
    Looks like the final nails are being driven in the coffin of Jackie's story:

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/15/friends-uva-rape-accuser-begin-doubt-story/?page=1

    The numbers the "upperclassman" texts came from were numbers connected to internet services used to text.

    Thanks, I’ll post.

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  122. @Buddwing
    The Sapir-Whorf/Orwell effect of vocabulary is even more fundamental to this issue than you seem to realize, because it is not just the word “catfish” that is missing from the conceptual larder, but, in fact, an actual word for what allegedly happened to Jackie. The word “rape,” you see, is a euphemism, meaning abduction (related to the word “raptor”) with sexual relations only implied. It is hard to draw boundaries around something only implied by the word that designates it. Searching the thesaurus, one only finds words that reference the idea of “honor,” such as “violate” or “despoil,” or legal subcategories, such as “sexual assault.”
    I think that this points to a very important perspective. The idea of “Rape” as a crime is in important ways about controlling one’s and one's family's offspring, rather than sex or power. It is tied up with the idea of “honor,” particularly “family honor,” so much so that honor can only be restored in some cultures by the killing or suicide of the victim. This is the case in ancient Roman stories such as the Rape of Lucretia, as well as in present day news reports from Pakistan. An alternative method of restoring honor, for the bold or the powerful, was vengeance and vendetta. Fortunately, the western world invented mechanisms short of death to restore a victim’s honor. These include societal mechanisms for impugning the honor of the perpetrator, the solicitation of sympathy for the victim, and the criminal prosecution of the rapist.
    In the present day world of the college campus, we have a wide variety of circumstances and a lack of appropriate words. Thus everyone from Todd Akins (“legitimate rape”) to Whoopi Goldberg (“rape rape”) has struggled to express the distinction between the paradigmatic stranger assault with violence and the various forms of dishonor which the drunken coed might find visited upon herself. Without the words to divide categories, we find commentators citing the 1-in-5 college women are subject to some form of “sexual assault” as 1-in-5 college women are “raped” (self-righteously and with no sense that they have made a major categorical confusion). We have women who want their “rapist” sex partners shamed, or expelled from campus, but not criminally prosecuted (I suggest, because they want their honor restored), while outside commentators cannot understand why they are not handed over to the police. Yet none of this seems to be discussable, because we lack both the vocabulary and the conceptual framework for conducting such a conversation.

    Excellent points. That explains Dean Eramo’s much denounced interview where she explains that all a lot of these girls want is to tell off the boy in front of an authority figure — it is to restore honor.

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  123. @Steve Sailer
    Anthropologists write a lot about Pacific Islanders and there's a fair amount of evidence that Islanders like to play elaborate pranks -- e.g., Margaret Mead in Samoa.

    Yes, Steve, and the young man with a homoerotic infatuation for the All-America linebacker from Notre Dame was also of that particular ethnic extraction– as well as a close relative of a fairly famous NFL player, now retired, bearing the same last name! He introduced his female cousin to other NFL players, before he ever honed in on Manti Te’o, using the same name for her that he then used in the latter, now-infamous case. In addition to the fact that the theory that Te’o had concocted the entire scheme in a failed long-shot attempt to win the Heisman Trophy, as a strictly defensive player, before Notre Dame’s highly improbable 12-0 regular season– they were unranked when the season began!– even had begun, in September 2012, is ridiculous on its face, Te’o is a devout Mormon, for whom such Machiavellian behavior is highly implausible. The man behind the “Catfishing” show had no difficulty in believing that Te’o could have been manipulated as he was.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    My impression of Pacific Islanders is that they can be jokers, but they're not very cynical or conniving: e.g., the new Heisman Marcus Mariota who is something like half Samoan and from Hawaii better hope he doesn't get drafted by Washington or New York or somewhere like that. He's too laidback to thrive in that kind of complex environment.
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  124. @D. K.
    Yes, Steve, and the young man with a homoerotic infatuation for the All-America linebacker from Notre Dame was also of that particular ethnic extraction-- as well as a close relative of a fairly famous NFL player, now retired, bearing the same last name! He introduced his female cousin to other NFL players, before he ever honed in on Manti Te'o, using the same name for her that he then used in the latter, now-infamous case. In addition to the fact that the theory that Te'o had concocted the entire scheme in a failed long-shot attempt to win the Heisman Trophy, as a strictly defensive player, before Notre Dame's highly improbable 12-0 regular season-- they were unranked when the season began!-- even had begun, in September 2012, is ridiculous on its face, Te'o is a devout Mormon, for whom such Machiavellian behavior is highly implausible. The man behind the "Catfishing" show had no difficulty in believing that Te'o could have been manipulated as he was.

    My impression of Pacific Islanders is that they can be jokers, but they’re not very cynical or conniving: e.g., the new Heisman Marcus Mariota who is something like half Samoan and from Hawaii better hope he doesn’t get drafted by Washington or New York or somewhere like that. He’s too laidback to thrive in that kind of complex environment.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    The family of the female cousin confirmed that the voice on the recordings that Manti Te'o played during his television interview with Katie Couric, in January 2013, belonged to the female cousin-- not to her male cousin who had put her up to it, and who claimed that he had been the one calling Te'o, all along, disguising his own voice to sound like a young woman. She apparently had done so after a similar target, the year before, had broken off their telephone relationship, to her reported disappointment. Whether that previous case was the same former NFL player who had said publicly, that January, that he had been introduced to a woman using the same fictitious name as was used, the following year, with Te'o is unclear; but, that other player did say that he became very close to her, by telephone, after meeting her. The female cousin lives in Pago Pago-- not in California, where the male cousin lives. I do not believe that Notre Dame would have stood so unequivocally behind Te'o unless its own investigation proved to their Athletic Director, who was a very successful attorney, that Te'o's story was factually unassailable-- however personally embarrassing it obviously was to Te'o himself, and, by extension, to Notre Dame, both as an institution and as a college-football brand name. I believe that the national sports media, led by ESPN, decided to crucify Te'o because (a) he was a devout Mormon; (b) he was from Notre Dame, the nation's most prominent Catholic university; and, most importantly, (c) he had made them collectively look foolish for accepting and promoting the dead-girlfriend story without bothering to confirm it themselves!
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  125. @Steve Sailer
    My impression of Pacific Islanders is that they can be jokers, but they're not very cynical or conniving: e.g., the new Heisman Marcus Mariota who is something like half Samoan and from Hawaii better hope he doesn't get drafted by Washington or New York or somewhere like that. He's too laidback to thrive in that kind of complex environment.

    The family of the female cousin confirmed that the voice on the recordings that Manti Te’o played during his television interview with Katie Couric, in January 2013, belonged to the female cousin– not to her male cousin who had put her up to it, and who claimed that he had been the one calling Te’o, all along, disguising his own voice to sound like a young woman. She apparently had done so after a similar target, the year before, had broken off their telephone relationship, to her reported disappointment. Whether that previous case was the same former NFL player who had said publicly, that January, that he had been introduced to a woman using the same fictitious name as was used, the following year, with Te’o is unclear; but, that other player did say that he became very close to her, by telephone, after meeting her. The female cousin lives in Pago Pago– not in California, where the male cousin lives. I do not believe that Notre Dame would have stood so unequivocally behind Te’o unless its own investigation proved to their Athletic Director, who was a very successful attorney, that Te’o’s story was factually unassailable– however personally embarrassing it obviously was to Te’o himself, and, by extension, to Notre Dame, both as an institution and as a college-football brand name. I believe that the national sports media, led by ESPN, decided to crucify Te’o because (a) he was a devout Mormon; (b) he was from Notre Dame, the nation’s most prominent Catholic university; and, most importantly, (c) he had made them collectively look foolish for accepting and promoting the dead-girlfriend story without bothering to confirm it themselves!

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    • Replies: @Danindc
    D.K.,
    Explain to me why he would hand over excel spread sheets showing his calls intead of a Verizon print out that could be downloaded in 5 minutes from any computer? All he had to do was show legit phone records and the scandal goes away. He couldn't, and the concocted Excel spreadsheet was a feeble attempt to overcome this massive problem. This was the main obstacle and the reason his group went radio silent for 2 days prior to try and resolve. They came up with excel spreadsheets.....that's the best they could do. They couldn't even pay someone from Verizon to doctor up a real phone record.

    It wasn't necessarily the Heisman, Te'o was smart enough to realize to hit it big it helps to be a victim in our culture.

    You're muddying the waters. He conspired with a friend from the start.

    Devout Mormon.....you really buy everything he says. He needs more fans like you.
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  126. @D. K.
    The family of the female cousin confirmed that the voice on the recordings that Manti Te'o played during his television interview with Katie Couric, in January 2013, belonged to the female cousin-- not to her male cousin who had put her up to it, and who claimed that he had been the one calling Te'o, all along, disguising his own voice to sound like a young woman. She apparently had done so after a similar target, the year before, had broken off their telephone relationship, to her reported disappointment. Whether that previous case was the same former NFL player who had said publicly, that January, that he had been introduced to a woman using the same fictitious name as was used, the following year, with Te'o is unclear; but, that other player did say that he became very close to her, by telephone, after meeting her. The female cousin lives in Pago Pago-- not in California, where the male cousin lives. I do not believe that Notre Dame would have stood so unequivocally behind Te'o unless its own investigation proved to their Athletic Director, who was a very successful attorney, that Te'o's story was factually unassailable-- however personally embarrassing it obviously was to Te'o himself, and, by extension, to Notre Dame, both as an institution and as a college-football brand name. I believe that the national sports media, led by ESPN, decided to crucify Te'o because (a) he was a devout Mormon; (b) he was from Notre Dame, the nation's most prominent Catholic university; and, most importantly, (c) he had made them collectively look foolish for accepting and promoting the dead-girlfriend story without bothering to confirm it themselves!

    D.K.,
    Explain to me why he would hand over excel spread sheets showing his calls intead of a Verizon print out that could be downloaded in 5 minutes from any computer? All he had to do was show legit phone records and the scandal goes away. He couldn’t, and the concocted Excel spreadsheet was a feeble attempt to overcome this massive problem. This was the main obstacle and the reason his group went radio silent for 2 days prior to try and resolve. They came up with excel spreadsheets…..that’s the best they could do. They couldn’t even pay someone from Verizon to doctor up a real phone record.

    It wasn’t necessarily the Heisman, Te’o was smart enough to realize to hit it big it helps to be a victim in our culture.

    You’re muddying the waters. He conspired with a friend from the start.

    Devout Mormon…..you really buy everything he says. He needs more fans like you.

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    • Replies: @D. K.
    Off the top of my very-overeducated head, and as an erstwhile attorney myself, I would reasonably assume that he had no interest in releasing to vultures like ESPN a complete listing of every phone number that he called, and that called him, over the course of many months, if not recent years, including the date, time and duration of each and every call to and from each of those phone numbers. Some people retain the bizarre notion that they and their correspondents deserve some fair degree of personal privacy, and that the media lynch mobs that actively seek to destroy their and their loved ones' lives, in a progressive stream of two-minute hates, are not entitled to whatever they might wish, or even imperiously demand.

    You said that Manti Te'o concocted the entire plot himself, in order to win the Heisman Trophy and advance his future NFL prospects. That claim is recorded for posterity in your initial comment (#51), supra. Now that it has been pointed out, by me, how patently ludicrous the first part of that claim was-- since he was not a credible Heisman candidate, as a defensive player on an unrated team, coming off of back-to-back 8-5 seasons, as the 2012 season loomed before him (indeed, at the very time that he supposedly killed off his supposedly non-existent girlfriend, to coincide with the death of his real grandmother, on September 11, 2012, Notre Dame was only 2-0, and was only ranked #22 in the national polls, having beaten only Navy, in a rout played in Ireland, and Purdue, back home in South Bend, on a late field goal-- with neither of those teams being ranked all season, and my own alma mater ending up 6-7, that year, after a bowl loss!), and never would have been considered a credible Heisman candidate, despite how well he played, if Notre Dame had not shocked us all by going 12-0, prior to the Heisman voting, instead of 8-4, as in the previous year, or 7-5, as in Brian Kelly's first season as head coach-- you fall back on the second half of it: promoting his future NFL prospects.

    The notion that supposedly faking the death of a supposedly non-existent girlfriend, two games into his senior year, would have caused his NFL draft prospects to rise-- at all, let alone appreciably, to make the supposed hoax worth the effort and the risk-- seven and a half months later, in late April of 2013, is one that would have gotten you laughed out of any roomful of NFL executives, or outside draft experts! Whatever the new cultural cache of victimhood in America has been, in recent decades, business people who are investing their fortunes on predicting the likely performance of potential NFL picks in the years to come, in a highly meritocratic environment, are not going to give a whit that some prospect's long-distance romance supposedly ended in a tragic death from leukemia, several months before the draft, let alone a potential rookie season. If you genuinely believe that any NFL executive would have raised Manti Te'o's draft status as a result of that alleged tragedy, you are truly moronic! I strongly suggest, as a bit of pro bono advice from a former lawyer, with an added M.B.A., that you stick to well-established mutual funds-- or, perhaps, a simple passbook account!?!

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  127. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @ben tillman

    It would seem that the yearly probability is 0.0061, so we have to calculate the probability of not being raped for 30 years, which is (1 – 0.0061)^30, which is 83% by my calculator. (That is, the probability of not getting raped in any year is 0.0061, extend that to 30 years.)

    Corrections to my calculation are welcome.
     
    Your calculation is fine (although technically you're talking about 31 years), but you described it wrong in one spot. According to your source, the probability of not getting raped in any year is .9939, as you said the first time (1 -.0061), but not the second time (.0061). It also relies on a dubious but convenient assumption that the rate stays constant over the period in question, but it's probably close enough.

    although technically you’re talking about 31 years

    Hmmm, I can see that it is harder to figure these things out than I thought, because I hadn’t thought of that method of working out the lifetime probability.

    However, by that approach, the probability of not getting raped for one year is (1-0.0061)^1, for two years is (1-0.0061)^2, for three years is (1-0.0061)^3 and so on.

    So, it seems that (1-0.0061)^30 is correct for 30 years.

    On the other hand, if you look closely at the report quoted, you see that that number is the average over the period of 1997 to 2013 and the numbers have been declining. They also give numbers for outside the years 18-24.

    So, the numbers for 2013 were 4.3/1000 for college age women (18-24) and 1.4/1000 outside the college years and these are all forms (completed rape, attempted rape, threat of rape and sexual assault). Also, outside college age is listed as 12 and up, but it seems likely that the probability falls drastically away from even the 1.4 number after, say, age 50.

    So, my calculation is that it is no more than: 0.92. That is, the probability of rape or sexual assault in 2013 or latter (assuming a continued decline) over the life of a female in the US is less than 1/10. (Less for a couple of reasons. I think that surveys are a reasonable way to assess things but they likely suffer from people claiming things that did not happen or that they have confused. However, it seems unlikely that someone who was actually raped who responded to the survey would respond in the negative.)

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    • Replies: @Hard Line Realist
    It might be possible to be more realistic by assuming that the risk of being raped slopes off over time with the average being 1.4/1000, but it seems to make little difference if my Python is any good. About 7% lifetime probability.

    However, perhaps a more important variable is amount of time spent associating with black and Hispanic males.

    Perhaps someone can comment.
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  128. @Danindc
    D.K.,
    Explain to me why he would hand over excel spread sheets showing his calls intead of a Verizon print out that could be downloaded in 5 minutes from any computer? All he had to do was show legit phone records and the scandal goes away. He couldn't, and the concocted Excel spreadsheet was a feeble attempt to overcome this massive problem. This was the main obstacle and the reason his group went radio silent for 2 days prior to try and resolve. They came up with excel spreadsheets.....that's the best they could do. They couldn't even pay someone from Verizon to doctor up a real phone record.

    It wasn't necessarily the Heisman, Te'o was smart enough to realize to hit it big it helps to be a victim in our culture.

    You're muddying the waters. He conspired with a friend from the start.

    Devout Mormon.....you really buy everything he says. He needs more fans like you.

    Off the top of my very-overeducated head, and as an erstwhile attorney myself, I would reasonably assume that he had no interest in releasing to vultures like ESPN a complete listing of every phone number that he called, and that called him, over the course of many months, if not recent years, including the date, time and duration of each and every call to and from each of those phone numbers. Some people retain the bizarre notion that they and their correspondents deserve some fair degree of personal privacy, and that the media lynch mobs that actively seek to destroy their and their loved ones’ lives, in a progressive stream of two-minute hates, are not entitled to whatever they might wish, or even imperiously demand.

    You said that Manti Te’o concocted the entire plot himself, in order to win the Heisman Trophy and advance his future NFL prospects. That claim is recorded for posterity in your initial comment (#51), supra. Now that it has been pointed out, by me, how patently ludicrous the first part of that claim was– since he was not a credible Heisman candidate, as a defensive player on an unrated team, coming off of back-to-back 8-5 seasons, as the 2012 season loomed before him (indeed, at the very time that he supposedly killed off his supposedly non-existent girlfriend, to coincide with the death of his real grandmother, on September 11, 2012, Notre Dame was only 2-0, and was only ranked #22 in the national polls, having beaten only Navy, in a rout played in Ireland, and Purdue, back home in South Bend, on a late field goal– with neither of those teams being ranked all season, and my own alma mater ending up 6-7, that year, after a bowl loss!), and never would have been considered a credible Heisman candidate, despite how well he played, if Notre Dame had not shocked us all by going 12-0, prior to the Heisman voting, instead of 8-4, as in the previous year, or 7-5, as in Brian Kelly’s first season as head coach– you fall back on the second half of it: promoting his future NFL prospects.

    The notion that supposedly faking the death of a supposedly non-existent girlfriend, two games into his senior year, would have caused his NFL draft prospects to rise– at all, let alone appreciably, to make the supposed hoax worth the effort and the risk– seven and a half months later, in late April of 2013, is one that would have gotten you laughed out of any roomful of NFL executives, or outside draft experts! Whatever the new cultural cache of victimhood in America has been, in recent decades, business people who are investing their fortunes on predicting the likely performance of potential NFL picks in the years to come, in a highly meritocratic environment, are not going to give a whit that some prospect’s long-distance romance supposedly ended in a tragic death from leukemia, several months before the draft, let alone a potential rookie season. If you genuinely believe that any NFL executive would have raised Manti Te’o’s draft status as a result of that alleged tragedy, you are truly moronic! I strongly suggest, as a bit of pro bono advice from a former lawyer, with an added M.B.A., that you stick to well-established mutual funds– or, perhaps, a simple passbook account!?!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Danindc
    So the excuse is that he didn't provide easy to verify actual phone records because he didn't want to reveal personal phone calls? Even though it would have vindicated him? And he could have covered up all personal info. It's done in the court system all the time as you should know. So he put together patently BS excel spreadsheets???

    If you're as smart as you say you are, you must realize how absurd that sounds.

    Check and mate.
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  129. @The most deplorable one

    although technically you’re talking about 31 years
     
    Hmmm, I can see that it is harder to figure these things out than I thought, because I hadn't thought of that method of working out the lifetime probability.

    However, by that approach, the probability of not getting raped for one year is (1-0.0061)^1, for two years is (1-0.0061)^2, for three years is (1-0.0061)^3 and so on.

    So, it seems that (1-0.0061)^30 is correct for 30 years.

    On the other hand, if you look closely at the report quoted, you see that that number is the average over the period of 1997 to 2013 and the numbers have been declining. They also give numbers for outside the years 18-24.

    So, the numbers for 2013 were 4.3/1000 for college age women (18-24) and 1.4/1000 outside the college years and these are all forms (completed rape, attempted rape, threat of rape and sexual assault). Also, outside college age is listed as 12 and up, but it seems likely that the probability falls drastically away from even the 1.4 number after, say, age 50.

    So, my calculation is that it is no more than: 0.92. That is, the probability of rape or sexual assault in 2013 or latter (assuming a continued decline) over the life of a female in the US is less than 1/10. (Less for a couple of reasons. I think that surveys are a reasonable way to assess things but they likely suffer from people claiming things that did not happen or that they have confused. However, it seems unlikely that someone who was actually raped who responded to the survey would respond in the negative.)

    It might be possible to be more realistic by assuming that the risk of being raped slopes off over time with the average being 1.4/1000, but it seems to make little difference if my Python is any good. About 7% lifetime probability.

    However, perhaps a more important variable is amount of time spent associating with black and Hispanic males.

    Perhaps someone can comment.

    Read More
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  130. The worst part, more egregious beyond anything that might happen to Randall or Dean Eramo or unjustly accused fraternity members or victims of civil war in Syria, is how Sailer — true to the form of a dorky geezer attempting kid slang — seemingly cannot use the slang verb correctly.

    Your completely awkward 180-degrees-off misunderstanding of the entire metaphor is that the fish really catches fisherman, or something. “Jackie” fabricated a spurious, anachronistic profile of chem student “Drew” in order to fool Ryan Duffin, therefore “Drew” is the bait and “Jackie” is the fisher by one degree’s remove, i.e. the hopeful beneficiary, with the distinction that she’s trying to goad Duffin into White Knight Mode rather than personally entrapping him via filched photos of a sexy chick.

    She did not “catfish,” transitive verb, “Drew” any more than Dickens catfished Oliver Twist; either Duffin is the object of the catfishing by proxy or you’re just raping the term into meaninglessness. Sheesh, get it right for once!

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  131. CNN’s Outfront did a good story on this tonight. Apparently this “Haven” fellow sent an e-mail that was an essay praising the guy Jackie had a crush on. It gets crazier.

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  132. @D. K.
    Off the top of my very-overeducated head, and as an erstwhile attorney myself, I would reasonably assume that he had no interest in releasing to vultures like ESPN a complete listing of every phone number that he called, and that called him, over the course of many months, if not recent years, including the date, time and duration of each and every call to and from each of those phone numbers. Some people retain the bizarre notion that they and their correspondents deserve some fair degree of personal privacy, and that the media lynch mobs that actively seek to destroy their and their loved ones' lives, in a progressive stream of two-minute hates, are not entitled to whatever they might wish, or even imperiously demand.

    You said that Manti Te'o concocted the entire plot himself, in order to win the Heisman Trophy and advance his future NFL prospects. That claim is recorded for posterity in your initial comment (#51), supra. Now that it has been pointed out, by me, how patently ludicrous the first part of that claim was-- since he was not a credible Heisman candidate, as a defensive player on an unrated team, coming off of back-to-back 8-5 seasons, as the 2012 season loomed before him (indeed, at the very time that he supposedly killed off his supposedly non-existent girlfriend, to coincide with the death of his real grandmother, on September 11, 2012, Notre Dame was only 2-0, and was only ranked #22 in the national polls, having beaten only Navy, in a rout played in Ireland, and Purdue, back home in South Bend, on a late field goal-- with neither of those teams being ranked all season, and my own alma mater ending up 6-7, that year, after a bowl loss!), and never would have been considered a credible Heisman candidate, despite how well he played, if Notre Dame had not shocked us all by going 12-0, prior to the Heisman voting, instead of 8-4, as in the previous year, or 7-5, as in Brian Kelly's first season as head coach-- you fall back on the second half of it: promoting his future NFL prospects.

    The notion that supposedly faking the death of a supposedly non-existent girlfriend, two games into his senior year, would have caused his NFL draft prospects to rise-- at all, let alone appreciably, to make the supposed hoax worth the effort and the risk-- seven and a half months later, in late April of 2013, is one that would have gotten you laughed out of any roomful of NFL executives, or outside draft experts! Whatever the new cultural cache of victimhood in America has been, in recent decades, business people who are investing their fortunes on predicting the likely performance of potential NFL picks in the years to come, in a highly meritocratic environment, are not going to give a whit that some prospect's long-distance romance supposedly ended in a tragic death from leukemia, several months before the draft, let alone a potential rookie season. If you genuinely believe that any NFL executive would have raised Manti Te'o's draft status as a result of that alleged tragedy, you are truly moronic! I strongly suggest, as a bit of pro bono advice from a former lawyer, with an added M.B.A., that you stick to well-established mutual funds-- or, perhaps, a simple passbook account!?!

    So the excuse is that he didn’t provide easy to verify actual phone records because he didn’t want to reveal personal phone calls? Even though it would have vindicated him? And he could have covered up all personal info. It’s done in the court system all the time as you should know. So he put together patently BS excel spreadsheets???

    If you’re as smart as you say you are, you must realize how absurd that sounds.

    Check and mate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @D. K.
    If he "covered up all personal info," genius, how would he prove with whom he had been exchanging calls, at what hours, on which dates, and for how long? How is any such spreadsheet information "BS" just because you-- who accused Manto Te'o of being a "sociopath!"-- choose not to accept it? Notre Dame's athletic director, a very successful attorney, paid to have a top private-investigation firm fully explore the situation, which fully substantiated Manti Te'o's version of events, several days before the scandal ever broke. The N.D. A.D. then publicly and unreservedly defended and supported Te'o, and put the reputation of the university itself behind its star player. The person publicly named by journalists to be responsible for the hoax publicly confessed; he had privately done so to someone from his church, also before the scandal ever broke. The family of his cousin-- who used the same fictitious name with Te'o as she had with a former NFL player, the year before, as that player came forward publicly, in January 2013, to volunteer-- identified the voice on the voicemails that Te'o played on national television, that same January, as being that of the woman named, who was the confessed man's real cousin, sharing his (and their famous NFL relative's) surname. I withdraw the conditional nature of my penultimate statement, in my penultimate comment, supra.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2013-01-16/manti-teo-girlfriend-hoax-lennay-kekua-reagan-mauia-notre-dame-catfish

    http://nypost.com/2013/01/25/cousin-of-teo-hoaxster-revealed-as-the-voice-behind-fake-girlfriend-relatives-confirm/

    I was mistaken about one thing, however: when Notre Dame beat my own alma mater, 20-17, on September 8, 2012, it was ranked #22 in the national polls; by the time that Te'o's grandmother died in Hawaii, three days later, Notre Dame had surged to #20 in those polls. Mea maxima culpa!

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  133. @Danindc
    So the excuse is that he didn't provide easy to verify actual phone records because he didn't want to reveal personal phone calls? Even though it would have vindicated him? And he could have covered up all personal info. It's done in the court system all the time as you should know. So he put together patently BS excel spreadsheets???

    If you're as smart as you say you are, you must realize how absurd that sounds.

    Check and mate.

    If he “covered up all personal info,” genius, how would he prove with whom he had been exchanging calls, at what hours, on which dates, and for how long? How is any such spreadsheet information “BS” just because you– who accused Manto Te’o of being a “sociopath!”– choose not to accept it? Notre Dame’s athletic director, a very successful attorney, paid to have a top private-investigation firm fully explore the situation, which fully substantiated Manti Te’o’s version of events, several days before the scandal ever broke. The N.D. A.D. then publicly and unreservedly defended and supported Te’o, and put the reputation of the university itself behind its star player. The person publicly named by journalists to be responsible for the hoax publicly confessed; he had privately done so to someone from his church, also before the scandal ever broke. The family of his cousin– who used the same fictitious name with Te’o as she had with a former NFL player, the year before, as that player came forward publicly, in January 2013, to volunteer– identified the voice on the voicemails that Te’o played on national television, that same January, as being that of the woman named, who was the confessed man’s real cousin, sharing his (and their famous NFL relative’s) surname. I withdraw the conditional nature of my penultimate statement, in my penultimate comment, supra.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2013-01-16/manti-teo-girlfriend-hoax-lennay-kekua-reagan-mauia-notre-dame-catfish

    http://nypost.com/2013/01/25/cousin-of-teo-hoaxster-revealed-as-the-voice-behind-fake-girlfriend-relatives-confirm/

    I was mistaken about one thing, however: when Notre Dame beat my own alma mater, 20-17, on September 8, 2012, it was ranked #22 in the national polls; by the time that Te’o’s grandmother died in Hawaii, three days later, Notre Dame had surged to #20 in those polls. Mea maxima culpa!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Danindc
    The spreadsheet is BS because anyone can make one up. Show the phone records to an independent analyst to verify them. It's not hard. I could get you mine in 5 minutes. You can't overcome this and you know it. You're a smart guy I'm sure but you're being willfully dishonest probably because you love ND. I like the school as well but can still see a sociopathic liar when I see one. Let's wrap this up unless you can give a valid reason why Teo couldn't have shown his actual phone records, even to an independent source to verify them. You can't so you'll keep talking about ND's schedule or some such nonsense. Man up and admit you're wrong, that's all I'm asking.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  134. @D. K.
    If he "covered up all personal info," genius, how would he prove with whom he had been exchanging calls, at what hours, on which dates, and for how long? How is any such spreadsheet information "BS" just because you-- who accused Manto Te'o of being a "sociopath!"-- choose not to accept it? Notre Dame's athletic director, a very successful attorney, paid to have a top private-investigation firm fully explore the situation, which fully substantiated Manti Te'o's version of events, several days before the scandal ever broke. The N.D. A.D. then publicly and unreservedly defended and supported Te'o, and put the reputation of the university itself behind its star player. The person publicly named by journalists to be responsible for the hoax publicly confessed; he had privately done so to someone from his church, also before the scandal ever broke. The family of his cousin-- who used the same fictitious name with Te'o as she had with a former NFL player, the year before, as that player came forward publicly, in January 2013, to volunteer-- identified the voice on the voicemails that Te'o played on national television, that same January, as being that of the woman named, who was the confessed man's real cousin, sharing his (and their famous NFL relative's) surname. I withdraw the conditional nature of my penultimate statement, in my penultimate comment, supra.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2013-01-16/manti-teo-girlfriend-hoax-lennay-kekua-reagan-mauia-notre-dame-catfish

    http://nypost.com/2013/01/25/cousin-of-teo-hoaxster-revealed-as-the-voice-behind-fake-girlfriend-relatives-confirm/

    I was mistaken about one thing, however: when Notre Dame beat my own alma mater, 20-17, on September 8, 2012, it was ranked #22 in the national polls; by the time that Te'o's grandmother died in Hawaii, three days later, Notre Dame had surged to #20 in those polls. Mea maxima culpa!

    The spreadsheet is BS because anyone can make one up. Show the phone records to an independent analyst to verify them. It’s not hard. I could get you mine in 5 minutes. You can’t overcome this and you know it. You’re a smart guy I’m sure but you’re being willfully dishonest probably because you love ND. I like the school as well but can still see a sociopathic liar when I see one. Let’s wrap this up unless you can give a valid reason why Teo couldn’t have shown his actual phone records, even to an independent source to verify them. You can’t so you’ll keep talking about ND’s schedule or some such nonsense. Man up and admit you’re wrong, that’s all I’m asking.

    Read More
    • Replies: @D. K.
    I am a smart guy, whereas you apparently are not. I also am a rational one, whereas you obviously are not. Since I also have a Master of Science degree, from Purdue, in Personality and Social Psychology, I strongly suspect that my semi-professional opinion that Manti Te'o is in no way sociopathic probably holds a tad more weight than your bald claim to the contrary; or, are you really a clinical psychiatrist on the staff of Johns Hopkins, near D.C., specializing in psychopathology? As a former attorney, like Notre Dame's athletic director, I am quite sanguine that Manti Te'o's cell-phone records were among the materials investigated by the PI firm, and that Manti Te'o was fully forthcoming with him and that firm's investigator(s). They had no duty to disclose those private records to either the general public or the rapacious press. If they had, however, people like you doubtless would be claiming, to this day, that they were obviously fraudulent-- much as any genuine video of O.J. slaughtering his beautiful ex-wife and her waiter-friend would be dismissed by his supporters-- and especially by his co-ethnics-- as actually being a recording of L.A.P.D. Detective Mark Fuhrman committing the murders, in blackface (with the wearing of blackface, of course, now being considered a more infamous offense than the mere slaughtering of two White people)!
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  135. @Danindc
    The spreadsheet is BS because anyone can make one up. Show the phone records to an independent analyst to verify them. It's not hard. I could get you mine in 5 minutes. You can't overcome this and you know it. You're a smart guy I'm sure but you're being willfully dishonest probably because you love ND. I like the school as well but can still see a sociopathic liar when I see one. Let's wrap this up unless you can give a valid reason why Teo couldn't have shown his actual phone records, even to an independent source to verify them. You can't so you'll keep talking about ND's schedule or some such nonsense. Man up and admit you're wrong, that's all I'm asking.

    I am a smart guy, whereas you apparently are not. I also am a rational one, whereas you obviously are not. Since I also have a Master of Science degree, from Purdue, in Personality and Social Psychology, I strongly suspect that my semi-professional opinion that Manti Te’o is in no way sociopathic probably holds a tad more weight than your bald claim to the contrary; or, are you really a clinical psychiatrist on the staff of Johns Hopkins, near D.C., specializing in psychopathology? As a former attorney, like Notre Dame’s athletic director, I am quite sanguine that Manti Te’o’s cell-phone records were among the materials investigated by the PI firm, and that Manti Te’o was fully forthcoming with him and that firm’s investigator(s). They had no duty to disclose those private records to either the general public or the rapacious press. If they had, however, people like you doubtless would be claiming, to this day, that they were obviously fraudulent– much as any genuine video of O.J. slaughtering his beautiful ex-wife and her waiter-friend would be dismissed by his supporters– and especially by his co-ethnics– as actually being a recording of L.A.P.D. Detective Mark Fuhrman committing the murders, in blackface (with the wearing of blackface, of course, now being considered a more infamous offense than the mere slaughtering of two White people)!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Danindc
    You have de-railed.

    The phone records were seen by the PI firm now?? Got it. You just keep changing the story much like your hero Mantei. You're a grown man for God's sake, quit making excuses for a lying degenerate kid. Pathetic.

    Also, people that have to constantly cite their credentials, have self esteem issues. Just an fyi.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  136. @D. K.
    I am a smart guy, whereas you apparently are not. I also am a rational one, whereas you obviously are not. Since I also have a Master of Science degree, from Purdue, in Personality and Social Psychology, I strongly suspect that my semi-professional opinion that Manti Te'o is in no way sociopathic probably holds a tad more weight than your bald claim to the contrary; or, are you really a clinical psychiatrist on the staff of Johns Hopkins, near D.C., specializing in psychopathology? As a former attorney, like Notre Dame's athletic director, I am quite sanguine that Manti Te'o's cell-phone records were among the materials investigated by the PI firm, and that Manti Te'o was fully forthcoming with him and that firm's investigator(s). They had no duty to disclose those private records to either the general public or the rapacious press. If they had, however, people like you doubtless would be claiming, to this day, that they were obviously fraudulent-- much as any genuine video of O.J. slaughtering his beautiful ex-wife and her waiter-friend would be dismissed by his supporters-- and especially by his co-ethnics-- as actually being a recording of L.A.P.D. Detective Mark Fuhrman committing the murders, in blackface (with the wearing of blackface, of course, now being considered a more infamous offense than the mere slaughtering of two White people)!

    You have de-railed.

    The phone records were seen by the PI firm now?? Got it. You just keep changing the story much like your hero Mantei. You’re a grown man for God’s sake, quit making excuses for a lying degenerate kid. Pathetic.

    Also, people that have to constantly cite their credentials, have self esteem issues. Just an fyi.

    Read More
    • Replies: @D. K.
    I never said that the phone records had not been seen by the private investigator(s), and I repeatedly said that a thorough investigation had been done to fully substantiate Manti Te'o's story; ergo, I have not changed my position one whit, nor do I need to do so. That a man with a notably high IQ and a surfeit of higher education might have low self-esteem should seem a refreshing change, to most people-- including those that have been following your own ignorant bloviating in this particular comment thread. I only cite my credentials when I think them relevant. I must assume that you fail to cite any of your own because you lack them, not because you have some modicum, let alone any surfeit, of personal modesty.
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  137. @Danindc
    You have de-railed.

    The phone records were seen by the PI firm now?? Got it. You just keep changing the story much like your hero Mantei. You're a grown man for God's sake, quit making excuses for a lying degenerate kid. Pathetic.

    Also, people that have to constantly cite their credentials, have self esteem issues. Just an fyi.

    I never said that the phone records had not been seen by the private investigator(s), and I repeatedly said that a thorough investigation had been done to fully substantiate Manti Te’o’s story; ergo, I have not changed my position one whit, nor do I need to do so. That a man with a notably high IQ and a surfeit of higher education might have low self-esteem should seem a refreshing change, to most people– including those that have been following your own ignorant bloviating in this particular comment thread. I only cite my credentials when I think them relevant. I must assume that you fail to cite any of your own because you lack them, not because you have some modicum, let alone any surfeit, of personal modesty.

    Read More
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  138. But the real threat of prison rape leads whites to form white power gangs in prison for their own protection, which greatly benefits SPLC fundraising efforts.

    I’m willing to concede that things might just be different in Cali. Something about the CA prison system seems, well, worse. Big blue megacities, too. Which isn’t to say threat of rape’s the only reason to form a gang. Threat of stolen lunch money or swag, threat of getting beaten down and robbed, shanked, etc. Blacks are nothing if not great at giving whites a reason to band together.

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  139. […] Senate testimony. Related: Shopping around for rape victims. Related: Steve examines the media dulling down. Related: The real villain: Charles C Johnson. Visit him here. Related: More on Jackie’s […]

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