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From my new book review in Taki’s Magazine:

Forecasting a Million Muslim Mob
by Steve Sailer
January 06, 2016

In the news and opinion business, late December and early January are the dead season as journalists go on vacation, leaving behind their canned top 10 lists for last year and forecasts for the new year.

I’m not much of a fan of either, but I do approve of the modest increase in recent years of pundits grading themselves on their predictions from the previous January. Nobody has contributed more over the decades to this salutary trend than Philip E. Tetlock, a heavyweight professor of both psychology and political science at Penn’s Wharton School. (Tetlock is part of a coterie of heterodox social scientists who have been documenting the debilitating stranglehold that political correctness has on social psychology, along with Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, and a few other brave souls.)

In recent years, the highbrow spooks at the government’s Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, an agency set up in 2006 in shame over the Iraq WMD call, have funded four years of Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project to find the best amateur foreign-policy forecasters. …

Tetlock, teaming up with journalist Dan Gardner, has now published for the Frequent Flyer market (e.g., guys who liked Michael Lewis’ Moneyball or, at the high end, Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow) a popular book on what he’s learned from his annual forecasting tournament: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. Interesting. There seems to have been an isolated population that contributed to the Indo-Europeans.

    http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/151116/ncomms9912/full/ncomms9912.html

    we find that Caucasus hunter-gatherers (CHG) belong to a distinct ancient clade that split from western hunter-gatherers ~45 kya, shortly after the expansion of anatomically modern humans into Europe and from the ancestors of Neolithic farmers ~25 kya, around the Last Glacial Maximum. CHG genomes significantly contributed to the Yamnaya steppe herders who migrated into Europe ~3,000 BC, supporting a formative Caucasus influence on this important Early Bronze age culture. CHG left their imprint on modern populations from the Caucasus and also central and south Asia possibly marking the arrival of Indo-Aryan languages.

    WHG and CHG are the descendants of two ancient populations that appear to have persisted in Europe since the mid Upper Palaeolithic and survived the LGM separately.

    Read More
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  2. strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.

    Is it really that hard to explain?

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.

    Does that mean an invasion of these Muslims is appealing to women? The smart answer seems to be No. But if the sexual appeal is not to women, then there is no sexual appeal, but we know and we feel there is a sexual appeal. Therefore the correct answer has to be YES. And the smart answer has to be wrong.

    The sexy men are invading because the women want it.

    And it’s stupid but it’s not false.

    When men make a mistake, they invade somewhere they should not have–due to male desires blinding their reason.

    When women make a mistake, they invite someone they should not have–due to female desires blinding their reason.

    The reason we have not yet seen an explanation is that we assume politics are based on male desires. And second, women do not understand their own desires, so they would be less able to articulate this than I am. What woman would say, “I know it is stupid, but I need to see if these sexy, strong foreigners might make better lovers and rulers.”

    But that’s the answer.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    The people who crave the complete destruction of the european peoples like to say this - and it can be persuasive for people who look at alternative news sites because those sites focus on the military aged male aspect of the invasion - but the truth is the opposite and in plain sight when you look at the pictures used by the mainstream media to manipulate the public.

    The pictures the MSM show are nearly always children and mothers in distress.

    You're right the deliberate destruction of the european peoples is being brought about because of western women but the reason is the media are deliberately manipulating their sympathy for the children.

    Just look at any msm news since it started.

    What was the major turning point in the media's propaganda campaign - the dead kid on the beach.

    , @Reg Cæsar

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.
     
    And certain men.

    It's time to reread Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Whiskey.
    , @Olorin
    Utter nonsense.

    MSM propaganda doesn't show photos of "sexy strong foreigners who might make better lovers and rulers." The only place one can find that is on alt-right and HBD sites and sources. Liberal and prog ladies are not looking at those sites and sources, which are run mostly by strong white men with strong opinions who'd make perfectly fine lovers and rulers...and in fact are what white women choose on dating sites (though white men don't choose them).

    MSM propaganda--in cahoots with the intentions of billionaires and welfare profiteers like the Adolfsen brothers of Hero Norway and the major religions skimming hundreds of millions in tax dollars off this newest people-trafficking industry--MSM propaganda shows pathetic mothers, drowndeded toddlers, confused withered old people with apple-doll faces, and crying babies.

    They frame their propaganda to appeal to the milky or nullipara teat, not the juices down lower. Where your mind seems to be.

    As I talk to white women about the Muslim invasion of Europe, they don't see it that way. All they know is what they have heard about a bunch of sad lost scared cats they can save from the kill shelter. All the incipient clockmaking geniuses, thwarted by war.

    All the poor sad lost suffering people...who can supply them with the ultimate feminist myth and victory: Everywoman becoming the Second Coming of Jesus, impaled on a cross of iPhone-delivered 24/7 left wing victimization porn.

    Saving the world...with mass migration and the erasure of N and NW European genome. (Which somehow got identified with Satan...more on that in another comment.)

    Don't you flippin' realize that this entire set piece of propaganda is the coup de grace of MSM mythmaking since the 1960s?

    That's the one that took bolshie Jews' Kosher Frankfurt-er politics and turned it into the prevailing, dominant, full-saturation mass culture of the US? The one that never met a Prometheus or Agamemnon or Thorfinn Skull-Splitter it didn't despise, while lusting after that shiksa b***h Helen?

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  3. What is a good way to rate the performance of predictors who make probabilistic predictions? Let’s say the task is to predict the probability of precipitation 24 hours in advance, where the predictor gives answers like 30%, 80%, etc. A year’s worth of such predictions are accumulated, along with the precipitation/no precipitation outcomes. How would you score such predictors to find which predictor is best? And in practice, how does the National Weather Service determine its best predictor? The scoring algorithm should not be “gamable” (e.g., if your 30% rain forecasts are coming true 40% of the time, you can adjust your 30% predictions so that they come true only 20% of the time, yielding a perfect prediction rate over the whole year; so underprediction followed by overprediction is falsely taken, by a bad scoring algorithm, as consistently accurate prediction.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Tetlock's tournament uses Brier scores:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

    , @Karl
    >>> What is a good way to rate the performance of predictors who make probabilistic predictions?


    If you ===actually=== wanted to know, you'd be hanging out with the guys who put skin in the game by underwriting crop insurance.

    __Contingencies__ magazine - be there, or be square.


    PS: hey iSteve, did you see the item in Reuters about the second-tier oil companies needing to BORROW money because current oil prices mean they can't afford to pay the dividends that they can't afford to NOT pay?
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  4. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    What is a good way to rate the performance of predictors who make probabilistic predictions? Let's say the task is to predict the probability of precipitation 24 hours in advance, where the predictor gives answers like 30%, 80%, etc. A year's worth of such predictions are accumulated, along with the precipitation/no precipitation outcomes. How would you score such predictors to find which predictor is best? And in practice, how does the National Weather Service determine its best predictor? The scoring algorithm should not be "gamable" (e.g., if your 30% rain forecasts are coming true 40% of the time, you can adjust your 30% predictions so that they come true only 20% of the time, yielding a perfect prediction rate over the whole year; so underprediction followed by overprediction is falsely taken, by a bad scoring algorithm, as consistently accurate prediction.)

    Tetlock’s tournament uses Brier scores:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

    Read More
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  5. The reason that the Sailer strategy is not believed by pundits is the same reason they can’t see anti-White racism. It’s moral and just to go after the minority or female vote. It’s evil, demagogy, fascism, bigotry, etc. to appeal to whites or males. There’s a hesitancy to admit that something so evil could work.

    Moreover, you may notice that what pundits think politicians should do as a matter of policy is also what they think is good politics. I’ve never heard a campaign strategist say “Although immigration reform is good politics, it’ll really mess up the country.”

    It’s a nice racket the establishment and consultants have going. You can get Rubio or Bush to pay you to advocate for what you believe in anyway. All you have to do is tell them what they themselves want to hear, and dress it up as objective advice. You can lose elections, but the barriers to entry in politics are pretty high, so you can keep the whole thing going for a while. However, they aren’t that high, and we’re seeing the Republican party transform into an exclusively anti-immigration party, the same way they all have the same down the line views when it comes to abortion and guns.

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  6. If someone “updated his estimate 33 times over the next three months, changing his forecast by an average of 3.5 percentage points with each adjustment”, I’m not impressed either by him as forecaster, or by any contest which he won.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Every day's forecast matters. Being 10% more correct 9 months away from the question still gives one an upper hand even if everyone converges on the correct estimate two weeks away. That contest supposedly involved CIA analysts that too were free to adjust their estimates and yet Tetlock's teams beat them by 30%.

    Try it and see how impressive you are at predictions: www.gjopen.com
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  7. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there’s a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.
    , @Clyde

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.
     
    This silly but demented girl-woman-child was travelling to Africa to get boinked by the natives. She can dress it up in any kind of crap she wants but she was already putting into practice her mixing philosophy. In civilized societies men get restrained by women but women need restraining and channeling too. As in Kinder, Küche, Kirche. Lets admit the Muslims have this part right though taken too far.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinder,_K%C3%BCche,_Kirche
    , @Ic1000
    > But instead, the invaders turned out to be strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.

    Attentive NPR listeners who get their news from "Morning Edition" and "All Things Considered" remain entirely unaware that the migrants are mostly military-age males who arrive with smartphones in hand.

    Intelligent people can't think intelligently about the answers to a question that doesn't exist. As far as they know.
    , @Luke Lea

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.
     
    Poor Sweden. So naive! http://goo.gl/ZWt0Xn
    , @Anonymous

    We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.
     
    That's just an ad hoc rationalization for female evolutionary psychology. Women are instinctively attuned to selective pressures, and when a woman sees foreign people flooding in and people seemingly powerless to stop it, her limbic system starts to presume that selective pressures favor some gene or genes in the former and starts to think about acquiring those genes for her own offspring, especially since those genes are going to confer immunities to diseases and pathologies that the foreign people are likely to bring along with them that the natives aren't going to be immune to.
    , @Anonymous
    This attitude actually antedates WW2. It is the Kudenhove-Calergi plan, dating from the 1920s. It was an elite opinion then, but incessant propaganda since WW2 spread it throughout the masses, and in the current crop of pathetic young degenerates, the so-called millenials, you see the first generation raised on that attitude from cradle to future grave. If they don't snap out of it, all is lost.
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  8. @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Warner
    That is definitely the first part of it. I think the second is that they would claim "mixing in doses of other races" will add new talents and generic sturdiness to make us even more supreme.

    But I also had a conversation with a Swedish woman and her son where they expressed an almost racist level of Swedish superiority if it weren't for the fact that their superiority was their pride and excuse for bringing in more foreigners. I.e. We're the best and the most moral with the best land. This has to be the best place for refugees to go. And the end of the equation, like I said above, is that the foreigners' genes will make them even more supreme.
    , @Cloudswrest
    > This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy

    Indeed. Perhaps it's a "Jesus" thing. Sacrifice your bloodline by blending to uplift the third world. Share your genes. As often related on Jim's Blog, a "holiness spiral/singularity", to be more moral or holier than thou.

    -CW
    , @Lot
    As for Nordic supremacy, you could have sold me on this a few weeks ago when I was at home depot and a girl with a strong Swedish accent asked me for help selecting christmas lights. Man was I ever helpful, she was just captivatingly beautiful, and San Diego is full of pretty girls. It was a good thing that my mixed Jewish and German family was always big on Christmas lights every year.
    , @Richard S
    When the Orientals inherit the earth, and the rest of humanity lives in a kind of moronic helotry, slaving away in labour battalions for the new global masters (who won't commit civilisational suicide like Europe did); there will remain legends of a vanished race of giants who actually composed symphonic music, sent space probes outside of our star system, and once bestrode the moon, after having first conquered their homeworld with contemptuous ease.

    And like the tragic characters of myth they were, they could never be beaten by superior force of arms or cleverer strategies, but were ultimately overthrown by their own superior moral principles which they mistook for universal truisms.

    We were the protean Titans of the human folkgroups. Border collies can breed with wolves, but I know which ones are better suited to civilisation.

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  9. @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.

    This silly but demented girl-woman-child was travelling to Africa to get boinked by the natives. She can dress it up in any kind of crap she wants but she was already putting into practice her mixing philosophy. In civilized societies men get restrained by women but women need restraining and channeling too. As in Kinder, Küche, Kirche. Lets admit the Muslims have this part right though taken too far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinder,_K%C3%BCche,_Kirche

    Read More
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  10. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Warner

    strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    Is it really that hard to explain?

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can't be to anyone else. It is to women.

    Does that mean an invasion of these Muslims is appealing to women? The smart answer seems to be No. But if the sexual appeal is not to women, then there is no sexual appeal, but we know and we feel there is a sexual appeal. Therefore the correct answer has to be YES. And the smart answer has to be wrong.

    The sexy men are invading because the women want it.

    And it's stupid but it's not false.

    When men make a mistake, they invade somewhere they should not have--due to male desires blinding their reason.

    When women make a mistake, they invite someone they should not have--due to female desires blinding their reason.

    The reason we have not yet seen an explanation is that we assume politics are based on male desires. And second, women do not understand their own desires, so they would be less able to articulate this than I am. What woman would say, "I know it is stupid, but I need to see if these sexy, strong foreigners might make better lovers and rulers."

    But that's the answer.

    The people who crave the complete destruction of the european peoples like to say this – and it can be persuasive for people who look at alternative news sites because those sites focus on the military aged male aspect of the invasion – but the truth is the opposite and in plain sight when you look at the pictures used by the mainstream media to manipulate the public.

    The pictures the MSM show are nearly always children and mothers in distress.

    You’re right the deliberate destruction of the european peoples is being brought about because of western women but the reason is the media are deliberately manipulating their sympathy for the children.

    Just look at any msm news since it started.

    What was the major turning point in the media’s propaganda campaign – the dead kid on the beach.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    You nailed it, anon. But Whiskey will not ever change. There is a more realistic hope of everlasting peace to break out in the Middle East than for Whiskey to change his "white women HATE HATE HATE white beta males" shtick.
    , @dc.sunsets
    The women welcome the men.
    They use the MSM story of "the children" to simply rationalize their otherwise obviously irrational actions.

    The decision to indulge in a vice (and leftism is clearly a dopamine addiction and self-destructive, so it's a vice) is made in the reward center of the brain, not the neo-cortex.

    The neo-cortex is simply engaged to provide the mind with an ego-snuggling rationalization for what is otherwise obviously stupid.

    I strongly suspect the neo-cortex exists primarily to provide rationalizations.

    I'll add that the panoply of leftist positions, as a vice, has a genetic basis just as do addictions to mind-altering substances, gambling and pornography...oh, and repeated self-destructive relationships with others. Find one, you'll find others. I'm betting it all ends up being nearly the same gene sequences, positions and/or frequencies.
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  11. @anon
    The people who crave the complete destruction of the european peoples like to say this - and it can be persuasive for people who look at alternative news sites because those sites focus on the military aged male aspect of the invasion - but the truth is the opposite and in plain sight when you look at the pictures used by the mainstream media to manipulate the public.

    The pictures the MSM show are nearly always children and mothers in distress.

    You're right the deliberate destruction of the european peoples is being brought about because of western women but the reason is the media are deliberately manipulating their sympathy for the children.

    Just look at any msm news since it started.

    What was the major turning point in the media's propaganda campaign - the dead kid on the beach.

    You nailed it, anon. But Whiskey will not ever change. There is a more realistic hope of everlasting peace to break out in the Middle East than for Whiskey to change his “white women HATE HATE HATE white beta males” shtick.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Agreed.
    , @AndrewR
    Women have contempt for beta males. No need to being ethnicity into it. It's universal.

    Of course most cultures in history have had social restraints in place that rewarded beta males with wives and encouraged wives to feel content with beta husbands.

    In first world lands today these restraints are gone hence the desire of Strong Empowered Wymyn for the seed of virile, swarthy men.
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  12. I don’t see smart women dating any of those low IQ muslims; it’s mostly the underclasses doing it. Also, why do you want a child with a high occurrence of the MAOA-2R allele? He will be hot-headed and violent (and dumb).

    It’s really a matter of life or death now. Basically, the white man must ask himself if he does not simply want to commit suicide, or if he rises again and prospers. Suicide might be one answer, because once Europeans have been replaced or mixed with people whose mean IQ is 75-80 (and who differ in character and psyche as well), its culture is gone, too; muslims and blacks neither have the interest nor the intellectual wherewithal to sustain, let alone advance western civilization. The japanese might be able to conserve it in some form — and I doubt their women want to mix with third worlders –, but advancing is questionable due to differences in individualism, one of Europe’s inventions that made it so great and distinguishes it from other cultures. The genius — Dante, Goethe, Kant, Newton etc. — is basically a European invention.

    What this means is: if our culture and people disappear, why live anyway? All one works towards in art and science will play no role anymore. Nobody — except maybe the north east asians or ashkenazi jews, but their birth rate is low, too — will give a damn about it. We don’t see muslims in western countries becoming great writers or scientists, let alone blacks; they become grocery store or snack bar owners at best. We don’t see them reading our literature, our philosophy; listening to our classical music or immersing themselves in our great paintings. This is what is to be expected if ethnicities really differ in character, in their psychological makeup, in their aptitude, and this is to be expected, after all, if nations differ in mean IQ.

    So: why not just kill ourselves? Why don’t white people decide to call it quits and — all at the same time — shoot themselves and leave Europe to muslims and blacks? Sure, there will be chaos then with nobody working anymore to pay these obscene welfare checks.

    I mean, really, think about it: do childless women who are professors of feminist studies really believe that they will be read by future muslims and blacks? Are they that retarded? Is their IQ really that low? Or are they wearing rose-coloured glasses all the time? There simply is enough evidence now that the third world immigrants don’t give a damn about preserving Europe’s culture, they simply lust after our infrastructure, welfare programs and technology, while at the same time despising us and wanting to make Europe look like their third world hellholes they came from. So, again, what are whites working towards anyway? Who will read their books, marvel at their paintings, listen to their classical music or read their philosophic treatises?

    It’s all so laughable. Suicide really might be the answer.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Former Darfur
    For the majority of whites, and including many, even most, of the best whites that is pretty much what is going to happen. The question will be whether the small remnant of racially conscious whites who want to survive as a people, who want for their genes and their accomplishments and their capacities to carry on, will be large enough and determined enough to do so.

    The current population of whites involved in explicitly pro-white groups is not big enough, and paradoxically, not on average virtuous enough in the Roman sense of the word, to succeed. Indeed, even if the FBI and SPLC plants are weeded out, the percentages of active members of these groups who are not mentally or emotionally ill, physically defective, or simply self-centered hobbyists , is pretty small, meaning the numbers are even more inadequate.

    But...then again....our enemy has one great flaw: he always moves too fast, goes too far, reaches too high. It's possible he may be defeated. But I wouldn't bet on it.
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  13. I’ll mark a trend and make a prediction of some unmeasurable weight.

    I work from home and favorite place in the world these days is the trendiest coffee shop in Arlington right outside DC. Lots of girls and shrinking guys so I’m enthroned but its not even about that but: XM radio’s Coffee House station. If I’m not there its on at home, under plenary preference that’s background all day; all acoustic and most of its pop, and I’m totally hooked. I shall not say soothing cause fuck that, but it keeps you alert right nice and smooth. I cruz my day in equipoise.

    Seems I haven’t listened to the gangster rap of my heyday in months, and ya know that’s probably a good thing I supose.

    And but so what I’ve noticed, only after I adopted it domestically— interestingly that way maybe— is maybe not so novel but sure never occurred to me if not. Which is that a solid majority, maybe seven out of ten songs maybe eight even sometimes, these songs they are about God, the spiritual deity, a muse that’s more than historico muse, the soul that is feeling such good stuff or singing it come down please. What I know best from mom and pops are The Beetles and Paul Simon, pretty good analogs for these tunes I think, and this was simply not the material of their stuff, it plain was not, am I wrong?

    This is the trend that increasingly refers to being spiritual, and it would seem apposite to call the coffee shop the mainstream hub of high-IQ successful white people in America. And the house music of The Hub is about God.

    Maybe Chris Hitchens was not just clever but correct and this music polluting the coffee shops is going to really screw society over in the long run. Or maybe its the best thing this nation’s got going.

    My guess is the trend would be the silver lining to French Existential. How do you sing under those themes without forgetting there’s not a God and you don’t have soul? As if the inevitability all the time was that the tragedy of nausea and despair winds up one place sooner or later, cause artists need something not to lament, and the problem of evil is the terrible beauty of an aesthetic that sings of God the Artist.

    Weighty prediction is that this will further stratify society, one coffee shop at a time. Because these folks are pleasant pete’s to a man with no IQ under 110 maybe 115.

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    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    ¡Ay caramba! It's BEATLES, as in beat music. ¡Viva Los Baby Boomers!
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  14. @Anonym
    You nailed it, anon. But Whiskey will not ever change. There is a more realistic hope of everlasting peace to break out in the Middle East than for Whiskey to change his "white women HATE HATE HATE white beta males" shtick.

    Agreed.

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  15. @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    > But instead, the invaders turned out to be strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.

    Attentive NPR listeners who get their news from “Morning Edition” and “All Things Considered” remain entirely unaware that the migrants are mostly military-age males who arrive with smartphones in hand.

    Intelligent people can’t think intelligently about the answers to a question that doesn’t exist. As far as they know.

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    • Agree: ben tillman
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  16. Well the Germans never had problems percieving the Russians as hostile.

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  17. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    What is a good way to rate the performance of predictors who make probabilistic predictions? Let's say the task is to predict the probability of precipitation 24 hours in advance, where the predictor gives answers like 30%, 80%, etc. A year's worth of such predictions are accumulated, along with the precipitation/no precipitation outcomes. How would you score such predictors to find which predictor is best? And in practice, how does the National Weather Service determine its best predictor? The scoring algorithm should not be "gamable" (e.g., if your 30% rain forecasts are coming true 40% of the time, you can adjust your 30% predictions so that they come true only 20% of the time, yielding a perfect prediction rate over the whole year; so underprediction followed by overprediction is falsely taken, by a bad scoring algorithm, as consistently accurate prediction.)

    >>> What is a good way to rate the performance of predictors who make probabilistic predictions?

    If you ===actually=== wanted to know, you’d be hanging out with the guys who put skin in the game by underwriting crop insurance.

    __Contingencies__ magazine – be there, or be square.

    PS: hey iSteve, did you see the item in Reuters about the second-tier oil companies needing to BORROW money because current oil prices mean they can’t afford to pay the dividends that they can’t afford to NOT pay?

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  18. @Anonym
    You nailed it, anon. But Whiskey will not ever change. There is a more realistic hope of everlasting peace to break out in the Middle East than for Whiskey to change his "white women HATE HATE HATE white beta males" shtick.

    Women have contempt for beta males. No need to being ethnicity into it. It’s universal.

    Of course most cultures in history have had social restraints in place that rewarded beta males with wives and encouraged wives to feel content with beta husbands.

    In first world lands today these restraints are gone hence the desire of Strong Empowered Wymyn for the seed of virile, swarthy men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. "Why doesn't the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don't want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn."
    , @Anonym
    Asian women LOVE LOVE LOVE white beta males, so there is that. Maybe they appear alpha next to typical Asian males.

    Likewise, there is nothing alpha about your average black unemployed or supermarket stocker. Dating sites show that white women prefer white men. A subset do have jungle fever. And if you look around, most married men are not alpha, whatever that means.
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  19. One of these days you need to write about how bearish Silver has been on Trump

    and more specifically whether Silver’s method is inherently setup to miscalculate candidates that don’t have a lot of similar priors

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Silver has been triggered to the moon and back by Trump

    #trumpenparanoia
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  20. @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.

    Poor Sweden. So naive! http://goo.gl/ZWt0Xn

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    • Replies: @Clyde
    Elin Krantz: Just Another Dead White Liberal Female (Sweden) http://goo.gl/ZWt0Xn
    Those photos of her dead body are almost indecipherable. Hard to believe what this imported pos did to her...must have bashed in her head repeatedly in with a rock.
    She tempted the fates.
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  21. @Steve Sailer
    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.

    That is definitely the first part of it. I think the second is that they would claim “mixing in doses of other races” will add new talents and generic sturdiness to make us even more supreme.

    But I also had a conversation with a Swedish woman and her son where they expressed an almost racist level of Swedish superiority if it weren’t for the fact that their superiority was their pride and excuse for bringing in more foreigners. I.e. We’re the best and the most moral with the best land. This has to be the best place for refugees to go. And the end of the equation, like I said above, is that the foreigners’ genes will make them even more supreme.

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  22. Million Man Munch!

    Though the food in Northern Europe is reason enough to go home. Faisal Faisal, an Iraqi fake refugee, complained that even a cat wouldn’t eat the food in Sweden. He went home to mom’s cooking. His brother still wants to come.

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  23. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t know that this will actually win the GOP nomination for Trump, much less the presidency

    You could at least brave a guess :-) Tetlock’s team is now running a massive forecasting tournament open to everyone (this has nothing to do with their superforecasters). And they have this question: “Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?” – https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election

    Trump is currently at 25% and Rubio at 41%. Have your readers’ poll, let’s see if they can beat the crowds.

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    • Replies: @Ed
    "Trump is currently at 25% and Rubio at 41%. Have your readers’ poll, let’s see if they can beat the crowds."

    My own prediction has been that the Republican nominee will be someone other than Trump. It won't necessarily be Rubio, and it won't necessarily even be someone running in the primaries.

    This is based on two observations. The first is that the people running the Republican Party really don't want to nominate a businessman, with a history of serial marriages and serial bankruptcies at best, who has never held elected office, not even was a Republican until recently, and whose main platform position is on an issue the elite really cares about and where they really disagree with him.

    The second observation is that the elites of the two parties have shown over the years that they have enough tools available to keep someone who they don't want to run for president from being their party's nominee. Keep in mind that the idea that the nominees are elected, in sort of the political equivalent of the NFL playoffs leading up to the general election superbowl, is naive. If the idea was to have party members elect the nominees they would do so in, well, a nationwide primary election, as its done at the state level and in other countries. The Rube Goldberg system we have is to make sure that things can be fixed if needed. It did get a bit too wide open in the 70s, which is how Jimmy Carter wound up in the White House, but they tightened things up right after that. Trump himself is aware enough of this that he wouldn't pledge not to do an independent run.
    , @anon
    That's really a bet on whether the GOP will try to rig the nomination if Trump is willing (100%)...

    and secondly on whether they're competent enough to rig it?

    25/40 seems reasonable
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  24. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Breitbart has a video of Merkel Youth shooting fireworks at their hosts in Cologne. Like a panzerfaust, the Roman candles are being shot horizontally at short distances.

    I like combat and I’ve watched a ton of the GoPro videos of the street fighting in Syria.

    The fireworks streaking past the Cologne Cathedral look identical to tracer rounds. Did any of the Merkel Youth yell “Allah akbar” as they do in all the Syrian war videos?

    Are the fireworks and rapes a foreshadowing to something worse? I can hear Enoch Powell: “As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/01/06/watch-migrants-launch-fireworks-crowds-cologne/

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  25. @Warner

    strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    Is it really that hard to explain?

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can't be to anyone else. It is to women.

    Does that mean an invasion of these Muslims is appealing to women? The smart answer seems to be No. But if the sexual appeal is not to women, then there is no sexual appeal, but we know and we feel there is a sexual appeal. Therefore the correct answer has to be YES. And the smart answer has to be wrong.

    The sexy men are invading because the women want it.

    And it's stupid but it's not false.

    When men make a mistake, they invade somewhere they should not have--due to male desires blinding their reason.

    When women make a mistake, they invite someone they should not have--due to female desires blinding their reason.

    The reason we have not yet seen an explanation is that we assume politics are based on male desires. And second, women do not understand their own desires, so they would be less able to articulate this than I am. What woman would say, "I know it is stupid, but I need to see if these sexy, strong foreigners might make better lovers and rulers."

    But that's the answer.

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.

    And certain men.

    It’s time to reread Goethe’s The Sorrows of Young Whiskey.

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    • Replies: @Sparkling Wiggle

    And certain men.
     
    Indeed. Homosexuals and their cuck cousins.

    I've often wondered if that's what's behind Obama's affinity for all those aspiring rappers. Why not choose better protagonists for the narrative than Trayvon™, Michael Brown, and all those other strapping young thugs?
    , @Pat Casey
    Nice. Nailed it. Men too that's true. Speaking of whiskey young, sophomore year high school, before I dropped out, I'd get soaking wet before class at like 7:30 in the morning, hit campus and just stumble around campus, smoke a blunt in the woods, lift me some wine bottles from shoppers, and generally have a ridiculous blast being outrageous every day and love the thought of myself as much as the escapades. And it became an identity thing more than anything, just like this is me and this is what I do and that's who I am. And ok so but this is where it gets a little hazy, a little odd, and reportedly just kinda creepy. Keep in mind, fifteen years old on a two month bender thinkin your the shit, you're gonna do stuff you wouldn't do a decade later ya know. But so apparently what I started doing, can't actually recall a thing, but so as the story goes, I was pretending to be a hall monitor while wearing Caesar raiments and fuckin burger king crown, and not really like acting very alive I guess but sorta just goin up an standin next to certain people, and bein like hey whats up?...whats up dude? And like I said I was literally decked out in Caesar raiments. And so long story short, I went from awesome rebel to like ewww ok well that's kinda sad actually he's probably gonna do that the rest of his life. Thank god I found coke as soon as I did my oh my we need balance right. But what about that anyways man, does that strike you any kinda way Reg Reg?
    , @Rob McX
    Thanks - I LOL'd at that.
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  26. Dirk Dagger [AKA "Chico Caldera"] says:
    @Pat Casey
    I'll mark a trend and make a prediction of some unmeasurable weight.

    I work from home and favorite place in the world these days is the trendiest coffee shop in Arlington right outside DC. Lots of girls and shrinking guys so I'm enthroned but its not even about that but: XM radio's Coffee House station. If I'm not there its on at home, under plenary preference that's background all day; all acoustic and most of its pop, and I'm totally hooked. I shall not say soothing cause fuck that, but it keeps you alert right nice and smooth. I cruz my day in equipoise.

    Seems I haven't listened to the gangster rap of my heyday in months, and ya know that's probably a good thing I supose.

    And but so what I've noticed, only after I adopted it domestically--- interestingly that way maybe--- is maybe not so novel but sure never occurred to me if not. Which is that a solid majority, maybe seven out of ten songs maybe eight even sometimes, these songs they are about God, the spiritual deity, a muse that's more than historico muse, the soul that is feeling such good stuff or singing it come down please. What I know best from mom and pops are The Beetles and Paul Simon, pretty good analogs for these tunes I think, and this was simply not the material of their stuff, it plain was not, am I wrong?

    This is the trend that increasingly refers to being spiritual, and it would seem apposite to call the coffee shop the mainstream hub of high-IQ successful white people in America. And the house music of The Hub is about God.

    Maybe Chris Hitchens was not just clever but correct and this music polluting the coffee shops is going to really screw society over in the long run. Or maybe its the best thing this nation's got going.

    My guess is the trend would be the silver lining to French Existential. How do you sing under those themes without forgetting there's not a God and you don't have soul? As if the inevitability all the time was that the tragedy of nausea and despair winds up one place sooner or later, cause artists need something not to lament, and the problem of evil is the terrible beauty of an aesthetic that sings of God the Artist.

    Weighty prediction is that this will further stratify society, one coffee shop at a time. Because these folks are pleasant pete's to a man with no IQ under 110 maybe 115.

    ¡Ay caramba! It’s BEATLES, as in beat music. ¡Viva Los Baby Boomers!

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  27. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @5371
    If someone "updated his estimate 33 times over the next three months, changing his forecast by an average of 3.5 percentage points with each adjustment", I'm not impressed either by him as forecaster, or by any contest which he won.

    Every day’s forecast matters. Being 10% more correct 9 months away from the question still gives one an upper hand even if everyone converges on the correct estimate two weeks away. That contest supposedly involved CIA analysts that too were free to adjust their estimates and yet Tetlock’s teams beat them by 30%.

    Try it and see how impressive you are at predictions: http://www.gjopen.com

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    Like Steve Sailer, I find the format far too boring.
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  28. @Luke Lea

    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.
     
    Poor Sweden. So naive! http://goo.gl/ZWt0Xn

    Elin Krantz: Just Another Dead White Liberal Female (Sweden) http://goo.gl/ZWt0Xn
    Those photos of her dead body are almost indecipherable. Hard to believe what this imported pos did to her…must have bashed in her head repeatedly in with a rock.
    She tempted the fates.

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  29. @Reg Cæsar

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.
     
    And certain men.

    It's time to reread Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Whiskey.

    And certain men.

    Indeed. Homosexuals and their cuck cousins.

    I’ve often wondered if that’s what’s behind Obama’s affinity for all those aspiring rappers. Why not choose better protagonists for the narrative than Trayvon™, Michael Brown, and all those other strapping young thugs?

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  30. Here is something which will burst Steve Sailer’s White superiority and anti-Muslim balloon.

    We all know how paranoid anti-Islam Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders, pro-Israel English Defense League (EDL), David Horowitz and his American Islamophobe are due to Europe’s rising Muslim population. However, Rabbi Baruch Efrati, a teacher at Yishva community school in the West Bank, says Jews around the world should be happy at turning Europe into a Muslim majority region.

    “With the help of G-d, the Gentile (non-Jewish) will adopt a healthier life with a lot of modesty and integrity, and not like the hypocritical Christianity which appears pure but is fundamentally corrupt,” said rabbi – reported by Israeli daily YNet News on November 11, 2012.

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/01/02/rabbi-islamization-of-europe-is-good-for-jews/

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    • Replies: @anon
    I guess from his point point of view engineering a Muslim takeover would be one way of getting rid of what he sees as the Christian heresy.
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  31. On the other hand, from the perspective of early 2016, a really interesting question about Syrian refugees would have been: While this book’s manuscript is at the printers, will a European national leader decide upon a whim to invite in a million of them?

    http://takimag.com/article/forecasting_a_million_muslim_mob_steve_sailer/print#ixzz3wUZYOXZs

    Or, in January 2015, when the cathedral pulled the illumination on Pegida (‘Not in our light.’ Cologne Cathedral protests anti-Islamization rally ) who could have predicted that at the first anniversary of that morally exemplary behaviour by the church authorities, German women would be being raped by Muslims by the lights of the Cathedral and with the German police present but pretending not to notice .

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35231046

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  32. @Steve Sailer
    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.

    > This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy

    Indeed. Perhaps it’s a “Jesus” thing. Sacrifice your bloodline by blending to uplift the third world. Share your genes. As often related on Jim’s Blog, a “holiness spiral/singularity”, to be more moral or holier than thou.

    -CW

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  33. @Anonymous

    I don’t know that this will actually win the GOP nomination for Trump, much less the presidency
     
    You could at least brave a guess :-) Tetlock's team is now running a massive forecasting tournament open to everyone (this has nothing to do with their superforecasters). And they have this question: "Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?" - https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election

    Trump is currently at 25% and Rubio at 41%. Have your readers' poll, let's see if they can beat the crowds.

    “Trump is currently at 25% and Rubio at 41%. Have your readers’ poll, let’s see if they can beat the crowds.”

    My own prediction has been that the Republican nominee will be someone other than Trump. It won’t necessarily be Rubio, and it won’t necessarily even be someone running in the primaries.

    This is based on two observations. The first is that the people running the Republican Party really don’t want to nominate a businessman, with a history of serial marriages and serial bankruptcies at best, who has never held elected office, not even was a Republican until recently, and whose main platform position is on an issue the elite really cares about and where they really disagree with him.

    The second observation is that the elites of the two parties have shown over the years that they have enough tools available to keep someone who they don’t want to run for president from being their party’s nominee. Keep in mind that the idea that the nominees are elected, in sort of the political equivalent of the NFL playoffs leading up to the general election superbowl, is naive. If the idea was to have party members elect the nominees they would do so in, well, a nationwide primary election, as its done at the state level and in other countries. The Rube Goldberg system we have is to make sure that things can be fixed if needed. It did get a bit too wide open in the 70s, which is how Jimmy Carter wound up in the White House, but they tightened things up right after that. Trump himself is aware enough of this that he wouldn’t pledge not to do an independent run.

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  34. @Anonymous
    Every day's forecast matters. Being 10% more correct 9 months away from the question still gives one an upper hand even if everyone converges on the correct estimate two weeks away. That contest supposedly involved CIA analysts that too were free to adjust their estimates and yet Tetlock's teams beat them by 30%.

    Try it and see how impressive you are at predictions: www.gjopen.com

    Like Steve Sailer, I find the format far too boring.

    Read More
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  35. @Phil
    One of these days you need to write about how bearish Silver has been on Trump

    and more specifically whether Silver's method is inherently setup to miscalculate candidates that don't have a lot of similar priors

    Silver has been triggered to the moon and back by Trump

    #trumpenparanoia

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  36. @AndrewR
    Women have contempt for beta males. No need to being ethnicity into it. It's universal.

    Of course most cultures in history have had social restraints in place that rewarded beta males with wives and encouraged wives to feel content with beta husbands.

    In first world lands today these restraints are gone hence the desire of Strong Empowered Wymyn for the seed of virile, swarthy men.

    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. “Why doesn’t the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don’t want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn.”

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    top kek
    , @anonguy

    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. “Why doesn’t the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don’t want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn.”
     
    Thread winner.
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  37. @Sam Haysom
    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. "Why doesn't the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don't want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn."

    top kek

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  38. Steve do you fly anymore? The only person I’ve seen reading a book on a plane that didn’t have a guy with long hair and no shirt on the cover is me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone in a dress pants open a book on a plane.

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    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Where do you fly to/from? Maybe it's because I fly out of Boston, but books are everywhere at Logan and on the departing flights. Laptops have cut into that number over the past 8-10 years, however.
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  39. @Anonymous

    I don’t know that this will actually win the GOP nomination for Trump, much less the presidency
     
    You could at least brave a guess :-) Tetlock's team is now running a massive forecasting tournament open to everyone (this has nothing to do with their superforecasters). And they have this question: "Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?" - https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election

    Trump is currently at 25% and Rubio at 41%. Have your readers' poll, let's see if they can beat the crowds.

    That’s really a bet on whether the GOP will try to rig the nomination if Trump is willing (100%)…

    and secondly on whether they’re competent enough to rig it?

    25/40 seems reasonable

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  40. I wasn’t familiar with the name Philip Tetlock when I posted the following message on TAC 4-1/2 years ago (in response to a Phil Giraldi blog), although it seems to fall more in the category of superUNforecasting by the noted CIA analyst (to go with Tetlock’s pretty damn good call of a coming Soviet breakup):

    “tbraton says:
    April 19, 2011 at 9:25 am
    “The utter wastefulness of this spending is really brought into focus when you consider the abysmal track record of the CIA. What are we getting for all this money–just more of the same failure!”

    When Bob Gates was at the CIA in the 1980’s, his area of specialty was the Soviet Union. Wikipedia has the following anecdote under the heading “Predictions of Soviet Collapse”:

    “Steward Brand said when introducing the work of Philip Tetlock that Brand’s partner had given a talk in the 1980s to top CIA people about the future of the Soviet Union. One scenario he raised was that the Soviet bloc might break up; a sign of this happening would be the rise of unknown Mikhail Gorbachev through the party ranks. A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates

    I can remember reading a review of a book written by a female analyst at the Hoover Institution around 1983 to 1985 with the title “The Coming Economic Collapse of the Soviet Union” or something like that. I have been trying to track down the book but have been unsuccessful so far.”

    [Note: another poster came up with the name of the female analyst I was searching for, Judy Shelton, and I posted the correct name of her book, "The Coming Soviet Crash" (1989), along with the correct date of publication. Remembering the past can sometimes be as hard as forecasting the future.]

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    • Replies: @anonguy

    A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates
     
    World events were feeling awfully hinky/unusual through spring/summer 1989, but I'd say it wasn't until autumn 1989 and especially the opening of the Berlin Wall that this wasn't the view of nearly everyone on planet earth who had an opinion on the topic. The Soviet Union was just part of the firmament.

    1989 was truly a year of miracles and I'm very happy I had the opportunity to both live and participate in those times.

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  41. @AndrewR
    Women have contempt for beta males. No need to being ethnicity into it. It's universal.

    Of course most cultures in history have had social restraints in place that rewarded beta males with wives and encouraged wives to feel content with beta husbands.

    In first world lands today these restraints are gone hence the desire of Strong Empowered Wymyn for the seed of virile, swarthy men.

    Asian women LOVE LOVE LOVE white beta males, so there is that. Maybe they appear alpha next to typical Asian males.

    Likewise, there is nothing alpha about your average black unemployed or supermarket stocker. Dating sites show that white women prefer white men. A subset do have jungle fever. And if you look around, most married men are not alpha, whatever that means.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Alpha and beta are relative terms. Whom a woman prefers depends on cultural context as well as the pool of realistically potential mates for that woman. A very attractive woman is in a better position to score a successful and confident man. A broke, no-name female who looked like, say, Lena Dunham would have to settle for a loser and/or beta.

    Actually, come to think of it, so will Dunham herself. I'm not well off but she couldn't pay me enough to date her...

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  42. @Reg Cæsar

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.
     
    And certain men.

    It's time to reread Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Whiskey.

    Nice. Nailed it. Men too that’s true. Speaking of whiskey young, sophomore year high school, before I dropped out, I’d get soaking wet before class at like 7:30 in the morning, hit campus and just stumble around campus, smoke a blunt in the woods, lift me some wine bottles from shoppers, and generally have a ridiculous blast being outrageous every day and love the thought of myself as much as the escapades. And it became an identity thing more than anything, just like this is me and this is what I do and that’s who I am. And ok so but this is where it gets a little hazy, a little odd, and reportedly just kinda creepy. Keep in mind, fifteen years old on a two month bender thinkin your the shit, you’re gonna do stuff you wouldn’t do a decade later ya know. But so apparently what I started doing, can’t actually recall a thing, but so as the story goes, I was pretending to be a hall monitor while wearing Caesar raiments and fuckin burger king crown, and not really like acting very alive I guess but sorta just goin up an standin next to certain people, and bein like hey whats up?…whats up dude? And like I said I was literally decked out in Caesar raiments. And so long story short, I went from awesome rebel to like ewww ok well that’s kinda sad actually he’s probably gonna do that the rest of his life. Thank god I found coke as soon as I did my oh my we need balance right. But what about that anyways man, does that strike you any kinda way Reg Reg?

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  43. @Steve Sailer
    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.

    As for Nordic supremacy, you could have sold me on this a few weeks ago when I was at home depot and a girl with a strong Swedish accent asked me for help selecting christmas lights. Man was I ever helpful, she was just captivatingly beautiful, and San Diego is full of pretty girls. It was a good thing that my mixed Jewish and German family was always big on Christmas lights every year.

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  44. Read More
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  45. Enough please with the Whiskey style White Women Want Dark Meat crap.

    We know from OK Cupid’s data, based on who responds to whom, that white girls have a gigantix preference for white men, indeed the strongest racial preference of any one group for another. Much stronger than while males preference for white women. Only black women’s preference for black men is comparable.

    Further, if German women really liked Middle Eastern men that much, there have been Turks there for quite a while, and they are generally more masculine than the Syrians they easily conquered and oppressed for hundreds of years. Yet Turk/German intermarriage is pretty low.

    The reason why we have mass third world immigration is easily explained by hatred of whites by the far left and desire for cheap labor by elites. I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.

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    • Replies: @5371
    [I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.]

    You'd be surprised. Pierre Lagrange (ex-Goldman Sachs Belgian hedge fund billionaire) abandoned his wife and children to take it up the ass from a Somali.
    , @Anonymous
    This mass migration has a sexual vibe not because the outspoken women in favor of it seek individual hookups. I doubt the Swedish girl I mentioned was rabid for sexual experience in Africa although I assume she was open to it.

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.

    i.e. children of migrants will get along with Swedish children and intermarry with Swedes. This could be seen as a form of self-hatred because it is self-destruction but self-justification is used. The reasoning goes that if Nordic purity caused so much horror a century ago then it will create harmony to become racially mixed. In this way it's framed by otherwise well adjusted intellectual Swedish girls like her (who are left of center rather than far left in the local context) that it is a mark of progress.

    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden. The need for cheap labor by Swedish oligarchs who have strong influence on a government docile to big business causing the migration wave is even more preposterous than the dark meat hypothesis. There are strong intellectual origins causing the migration wave, ideas with much wider sympathy than within the limits of far left enclaves.
    , @Brutusale
    People need to be repeatedly slapped in the face with it before they get it.

    I first saw it with a friend of friends. A pleasant and attractive enough girl, but about 80 pounds overweight. She had the Tess Holliday thing about her, pretty but huge. She also had 2 mulatto kids with 2 different guys.

    She started going to the gym, and she would ask me for advice. I showed her a few basics and gave her a workout routine, and she worked pretty hard. I mentioned how motivated she was, and she said she was sick of being ignored by men she found attractive. She dropped 65 pounds in what seemed like a matter of 4 months, and she looked really good. Her face, pretty to begin with, thinned out and she kept her curvy proportions. Her self-confidence grew, and she signed up on a dating site. Things seemed to be moving in the right direction for her.

    A few more months passed, and I noticed she stopped coming to the gym. I didn't see her for a about 6 months. Then I ran into her at the coffee shop and we caught up for a while. She said she had been on a few dates and they seemed to go well, but no one came back for a second date and she couldn't figure it out. I asked her if her dates picked her up at home and met her kids. She said that she said she had kids on her dating profile and guys shouldn't have been surprised. I said yeah, but did she identify them as mixed race? She was truly flabbergasted that her dalliances with black men would cause white men to dismiss her. I asked her if she wanted the truth, and she said she did. I told her the problem wasn't that she slept with black guys, which could be hidden or forgiven, but that she reproduced with them...twice. A pretty substantial percentage of men won't date women with another man's kids of the same race, I said, never mind a different one.

    She said she thought that might be the case, even though we live in an oh-so-SWPL town where racism is scrupulously sanctioned by the Thought Police. She then said she had a hard question for me: would I date her (rhetorical, as I'm 15 years her elder)? I truthfully said no, because I have no interest in doing the tap dance around her kids' cultural duality, as both her baby daddies come around on an unpredictably infrequent basis. Nothing to do with me, she asked? No, everything to do with you, I said, the kids were your choice. She nodded contemplatively.

    This was about 2 years ago, and I've not seen or spoken to her since. I asked our mutual friend what she was up to, and was told that she joined the cheap $10 gym and she gained back about half the weight she lost, but she seemed happy and was dating a very pleasant black guy she met through work. The happiest ending one could hope for. It's a hard lesson to learn when you finally realize that your life is dictated by decisions you made in your callow youth, but learning it allows you to get on with it as best you can.

    My question for the Whiskey/Heartiste crowd is this: if your beta/omega whatever is so desperate for women, why didn't anyone want this woman? Or is the cuck thing that strong?

    , @dc.sunsets
    John Wright nailed this on another site.

    Such women are "addicted to a false sense of moral superiority."

    This is literally true. They demonstrate all the symptoms of people engaging in a vice no different from alcoholism, gambling or pornography. Their virtue-signalling gives them the same dopamine rush, and their comments intended to explain their actions are the purest rationalization. The only difference is the harm of their actions falls not just on them but everyone. The blast zone of their vice is not limited to family and friends.

    This is why trying to debate them is fruitless. You would be as likely to convince a monkey sitting in front of a pressure switch that passes a current to electrodes implanted in the monkey's pleasure center of the brain, to stop pressing the bar.

    Its Not. Going. To. Happen. The monkey will sit there pressing the bar until it dies. These women can no more help themselves than can the monkey.
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  46. @Lot
    Enough please with the Whiskey style White Women Want Dark Meat crap.

    We know from OK Cupid's data, based on who responds to whom, that white girls have a gigantix preference for white men, indeed the strongest racial preference of any one group for another. Much stronger than while males preference for white women. Only black women's preference for black men is comparable.

    Further, if German women really liked Middle Eastern men that much, there have been Turks there for quite a while, and they are generally more masculine than the Syrians they easily conquered and oppressed for hundreds of years. Yet Turk/German intermarriage is pretty low.

    The reason why we have mass third world immigration is easily explained by hatred of whites by the far left and desire for cheap labor by elites. I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.

    [I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.]

    You’d be surprised. Pierre Lagrange (ex-Goldman Sachs Belgian hedge fund billionaire) abandoned his wife and children to take it up the ass from a Somali.

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  47. @Steve Sailer
    This attitude must include an aspect of Nordic supremacy: we are, on the whole, more beautiful, competent, and creative than anybody else, so we must be miscegenated out of existence.

    When the Orientals inherit the earth, and the rest of humanity lives in a kind of moronic helotry, slaving away in labour battalions for the new global masters (who won’t commit civilisational suicide like Europe did); there will remain legends of a vanished race of giants who actually composed symphonic music, sent space probes outside of our star system, and once bestrode the moon, after having first conquered their homeworld with contemptuous ease.

    And like the tragic characters of myth they were, they could never be beaten by superior force of arms or cleverer strategies, but were ultimately overthrown by their own superior moral principles which they mistook for universal truisms.

    We were the protean Titans of the human folkgroups. Border collies can breed with wolves, but I know which ones are better suited to civilisation.

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    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    East Asians can't do what Western Civ did. Ask any engineer who works with Chinese engineers. It's not in their culture to rock the boat, so if there isn't someone to copy, there's no innovation.

    China had a civilization for a heck of a long time, but never science. The SF programs showing Chinese people spreading to the stars are silly. Ain't going to happen. Ever.
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  48. @Reg Cæsar

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can’t be to anyone else. It is to women.
     
    And certain men.

    It's time to reread Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Whiskey.

    Thanks – I LOL’d at that.

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  49. Drop in migrants caused by weather, not Turkey’s crackdown, Germany says

    http://www.ekathimerini.com/204831/article/ekathimerini/news/drop-in-migrants-caused-by-weather-not-turkeys-crackdown-germany-says

    Assuming you trust the Greek’s opinion of Turks.

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  50. Speaking of superforecasting, New Media and chattering class wunderkind, Ezra Klein, of Vox forecasts what Trump’s loss will look like. At least, I think that is what he is trying to do in this jumbled mess of an argument.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/1/5/10717690/donald-trump-loss

    The accompanying video is telling. With a title harkening back to Hunter S. Thompson’s Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, you would expect something humorous and cutting edge. Instead, some Lefty dork signals shock over rather pedestrian comments at a Trump rally.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sc3_V7Qyq4&feature=youtu.be

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  51. @Friedrich
    I don't see smart women dating any of those low IQ muslims; it's mostly the underclasses doing it. Also, why do you want a child with a high occurrence of the MAOA-2R allele? He will be hot-headed and violent (and dumb).

    It's really a matter of life or death now. Basically, the white man must ask himself if he does not simply want to commit suicide, or if he rises again and prospers. Suicide might be one answer, because once Europeans have been replaced or mixed with people whose mean IQ is 75-80 (and who differ in character and psyche as well), its culture is gone, too; muslims and blacks neither have the interest nor the intellectual wherewithal to sustain, let alone advance western civilization. The japanese might be able to conserve it in some form -- and I doubt their women want to mix with third worlders --, but advancing is questionable due to differences in individualism, one of Europe's inventions that made it so great and distinguishes it from other cultures. The genius -- Dante, Goethe, Kant, Newton etc. -- is basically a European invention.

    What this means is: if our culture and people disappear, why live anyway? All one works towards in art and science will play no role anymore. Nobody -- except maybe the north east asians or ashkenazi jews, but their birth rate is low, too -- will give a damn about it. We don't see muslims in western countries becoming great writers or scientists, let alone blacks; they become grocery store or snack bar owners at best. We don't see them reading our literature, our philosophy; listening to our classical music or immersing themselves in our great paintings. This is what is to be expected if ethnicities really differ in character, in their psychological makeup, in their aptitude, and this is to be expected, after all, if nations differ in mean IQ.

    So: why not just kill ourselves? Why don't white people decide to call it quits and -- all at the same time -- shoot themselves and leave Europe to muslims and blacks? Sure, there will be chaos then with nobody working anymore to pay these obscene welfare checks.

    I mean, really, think about it: do childless women who are professors of feminist studies really believe that they will be read by future muslims and blacks? Are they that retarded? Is their IQ really that low? Or are they wearing rose-coloured glasses all the time? There simply is enough evidence now that the third world immigrants don't give a damn about preserving Europe's culture, they simply lust after our infrastructure, welfare programs and technology, while at the same time despising us and wanting to make Europe look like their third world hellholes they came from. So, again, what are whites working towards anyway? Who will read their books, marvel at their paintings, listen to their classical music or read their philosophic treatises?

    It's all so laughable. Suicide really might be the answer.

    For the majority of whites, and including many, even most, of the best whites that is pretty much what is going to happen. The question will be whether the small remnant of racially conscious whites who want to survive as a people, who want for their genes and their accomplishments and their capacities to carry on, will be large enough and determined enough to do so.

    The current population of whites involved in explicitly pro-white groups is not big enough, and paradoxically, not on average virtuous enough in the Roman sense of the word, to succeed. Indeed, even if the FBI and SPLC plants are weeded out, the percentages of active members of these groups who are not mentally or emotionally ill, physically defective, or simply self-centered hobbyists , is pretty small, meaning the numbers are even more inadequate.

    But…then again….our enemy has one great flaw: he always moves too fast, goes too far, reaches too high. It’s possible he may be defeated. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

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  52. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.

    That’s just an ad hoc rationalization for female evolutionary psychology. Women are instinctively attuned to selective pressures, and when a woman sees foreign people flooding in and people seemingly powerless to stop it, her limbic system starts to presume that selective pressures favor some gene or genes in the former and starts to think about acquiring those genes for her own offspring, especially since those genes are going to confer immunities to diseases and pathologies that the foreign people are likely to bring along with them that the natives aren’t going to be immune to.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Interesting.

    That must explain the whole 'teenage girl pining for pop stars' thing, which so characterised the 1970s, eg, the 'cults' surrounding David Cassidy, Donny Osmond, Bay City Rollers etc.
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  53. Ezra Klein of Vox is a Capital F F*****g moron. One of the best things Jeff Bezos did when he bought the Washington Post was to tell young Ezra to take a hike. EK wanted Jeff to pony up $10 million for his website.

    I gotta believe that it really grinds the old lefty “journalists” to see the praise heaped on these kids for saying crap like this: “My friends on the right don’t like to hear this, but the Constitution is not a clear document. Written 100 years ago, when America had 13 states and very different problems, it rarely speaks directly to the questions we ask it.” (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2010/12/30/ezra-klein-on-constitution-its-confusing-because-its-over-100-years-old/).

    But the left does not do circular firing squads.

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    • Replies: @Clifford Brown
    Not sure how to break this to you, Brother, but Vox Media received a $200 Million Dollar venture investment from NBC Universal in 2015. The company's current evaluation is likely around $850 Million Dollars. Not Amazon money, but still real money.

    Seems crazy, yes, but what the hell do I know? If it makes you feel better, the real value in Vox Media is not so much in the smug, clueless pontifications of Ezra Klein and Matthew Yglesias, but in the decidedly less intellectual SB Nation sports platform.

    The delicious irony is that Vox prides itself in not allowing comments from the hoi polloi so that their staid Leftist consensus declarations go unchallenged as Gospel because "Commenting is Dead", but the most profitable Vox Media property, SB Nation, features a raucous and loose commentating policy that attracts hundreds of comments to various threads.
    , @Dave Pinsen
    Not a fan of Ezra Klein, but he's right that the Constitution isn't a clear document. An example brought up on LOTB's blog this week is the phrase "natural born citizen". It's mentioned in the Constitution as a requirement for presidents, but it's not defined.

    Another example is the 2nd Amendment. What's the point of the first clause? Is it meant to constrain the second clause, as lefties suggest? It's unclear.

    Basically, "Constitutional" is whatever the courts decide it is. Abortion, gay marriage, whatever.

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  54. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    West is suffering from ‘wordism’.

    By the mere use of a key word, anything can be justified or de-legitimized.

    No need for argument. No need for debate. No need for discussion. No need for proof.

    Just say the word ‘racist’, ‘homophobic’, or ‘antisemitic’, and YOU are right and the accused must fold or grovel or sweat and prove he or she is worthy.

    Words form thought. A single word is not a thought. But it controls the taboos.

    We need wordsism to combat wordism.

    We need the use of many words to form thoughts than use of a single word to prevent thought.

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  55. Meet the Two Brothers Making Millions Off the Refugee Crisis in Scandinavia

    http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-norway-refugee-crisis-profiteers/

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  56. @Anonym
    Asian women LOVE LOVE LOVE white beta males, so there is that. Maybe they appear alpha next to typical Asian males.

    Likewise, there is nothing alpha about your average black unemployed or supermarket stocker. Dating sites show that white women prefer white men. A subset do have jungle fever. And if you look around, most married men are not alpha, whatever that means.

    Alpha and beta are relative terms. Whom a woman prefers depends on cultural context as well as the pool of realistically potential mates for that woman. A very attractive woman is in a better position to score a successful and confident man. A broke, no-name female who looked like, say, Lena Dunham would have to settle for a loser and/or beta.

    Actually, come to think of it, so will Dunham herself. I’m not well off but she couldn’t pay me enough to date her…

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    • Replies: @Romanian
    I don't want to get into the whole issue here, and the whole alpha/beta thing seems a bit too simple and a bit skeevy, but the way I've read about it suggests that you are already saying exactly what heartiste is, but not realizing the implications.
    - There is a lot of noise in the culture about what constitutes a desirable man and it isn't aligning properly with the actual societal good - happy, long-term relationships with resource commitment and parental involvement from the man between similar people
    - Women want the best man they can get, even if it means trading up.
    - Women waiting for the best possible men and ideal life circumstances (career in place, wild oats sown etc) are waiting too long before they settle down and start having children, leading to smaller families, difficulties conceiving and other issues, such as higher incidences of adverse effects on the health of the child
    - Women like Lena Dunham might not get the best man to be theirs to keep, but they might, ocassionally, be a practice run, curiosity or fodder for the appetites of a better man, increasing their expectations for the kind of permanent mate they can attract beyond what is reasonable. It's all about informational asymmetry. Heartiste had a few posts on the "alpha widow".
    - Marriage to a beta might not be all that fulfilling, even to a person's whose head is not in the clouds. The appeal of what ifs after responding to the biological urge to have children and keeping in mind the state apparatus to enforce resource provision from the man after the relationship has ended can lead to higher incidences of broken marriages or simply unhappiness in the woman which poisons the relationship.
    - A lot of attractive women end up ruining themselves (and their chances at keeping the best sort of man) in the process, either by wasting most of their "dowry" on youthful indiscretions, and leaving the pieces there to be picked up by a beta who thinks himself lucky, or by compromising themselves socially after being lied to that it doesn't matter.

    The way I see it is not that the Alphas are all dicks and the women are improperly wired for this day and age (so are the men), it's that the prevailing culture has led good men towards not understanding and abandoning the gender facade evolved over millennia that let them compete properly with others in addition to their innate traits like family orientation, and it's only the dicks who are still Alphas, which gives them scarcity value.
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  57. @Rehmat
    Here is something which will burst Steve Sailer's White superiority and anti-Muslim balloon.

    We all know how paranoid anti-Islam Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders, pro-Israel English Defense League (EDL), David Horowitz and his American Islamophobe are due to Europe’s rising Muslim population. However, Rabbi Baruch Efrati, a teacher at Yishva community school in the West Bank, says Jews around the world should be happy at turning Europe into a Muslim majority region.

    “With the help of G-d, the Gentile (non-Jewish) will adopt a healthier life with a lot of modesty and integrity, and not like the hypocritical Christianity which appears pure but is fundamentally corrupt,” said rabbi – reported by Israeli daily YNet News on November 11, 2012.

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/01/02/rabbi-islamization-of-europe-is-good-for-jews/

    I guess from his point point of view engineering a Muslim takeover would be one way of getting rid of what he sees as the Christian heresy.

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  58. @Jim Don Bob
    Ezra Klein of Vox is a Capital F F*****g moron. One of the best things Jeff Bezos did when he bought the Washington Post was to tell young Ezra to take a hike. EK wanted Jeff to pony up $10 million for his website.

    I gotta believe that it really grinds the old lefty "journalists" to see the praise heaped on these kids for saying crap like this: "My friends on the right don’t like to hear this, but the Constitution is not a clear document. Written 100 years ago, when America had 13 states and very different problems, it rarely speaks directly to the questions we ask it." (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2010/12/30/ezra-klein-on-constitution-its-confusing-because-its-over-100-years-old/).

    But the left does not do circular firing squads.

    Not sure how to break this to you, Brother, but Vox Media received a $200 Million Dollar venture investment from NBC Universal in 2015. The company’s current evaluation is likely around $850 Million Dollars. Not Amazon money, but still real money.

    Seems crazy, yes, but what the hell do I know? If it makes you feel better, the real value in Vox Media is not so much in the smug, clueless pontifications of Ezra Klein and Matthew Yglesias, but in the decidedly less intellectual SB Nation sports platform.

    The delicious irony is that Vox prides itself in not allowing comments from the hoi polloi so that their staid Leftist consensus declarations go unchallenged as Gospel because “Commenting is Dead”, but the most profitable Vox Media property, SB Nation, features a raucous and loose commentating policy that attracts hundreds of comments to various threads.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Yeah, well, the Boston Globe was allegedly worth $1.1 billion when the Times bought it. It was really worth $70 million, which Red $ox owner John Henry paid for it in 2013.

    http://nypost.com/2013/08/03/new-york-times-sells-boston-globe-for-93-percent-loss/
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  59. I like how Steve has a giant blind spot towards anything related to China.

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  60. “I’d say that has turned out to be a pretty good prediction, although whether I committed definitively enough to rack up points would be a matter of opinion.”

    Credit where credit is due. Steve, when you were writing posts about “World War T” some time back, I thought you were going off on a weird tangent. You definitely committed to it. You saw it coming, and you nailed it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Yes indeed - that was about the only thing I've been surprised by in years.
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  61. @Anonymous

    We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I’m not pretty and don’t get laid.
     
    That's just an ad hoc rationalization for female evolutionary psychology. Women are instinctively attuned to selective pressures, and when a woman sees foreign people flooding in and people seemingly powerless to stop it, her limbic system starts to presume that selective pressures favor some gene or genes in the former and starts to think about acquiring those genes for her own offspring, especially since those genes are going to confer immunities to diseases and pathologies that the foreign people are likely to bring along with them that the natives aren't going to be immune to.

    Interesting.

    That must explain the whole ‘teenage girl pining for pop stars’ thing, which so characterised the 1970s, eg, the ‘cults’ surrounding David Cassidy, Donny Osmond, Bay City Rollers etc.

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  62. @Warner

    strutting military-age youths with smartphones, giving Germany’s surrender a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    Is it really that hard to explain?

    The sexual appeal of strutting military age young men would be to whom? To women, both young and old. If the appeal is sexual it can't be to anyone else. It is to women.

    Does that mean an invasion of these Muslims is appealing to women? The smart answer seems to be No. But if the sexual appeal is not to women, then there is no sexual appeal, but we know and we feel there is a sexual appeal. Therefore the correct answer has to be YES. And the smart answer has to be wrong.

    The sexy men are invading because the women want it.

    And it's stupid but it's not false.

    When men make a mistake, they invade somewhere they should not have--due to male desires blinding their reason.

    When women make a mistake, they invite someone they should not have--due to female desires blinding their reason.

    The reason we have not yet seen an explanation is that we assume politics are based on male desires. And second, women do not understand their own desires, so they would be less able to articulate this than I am. What woman would say, "I know it is stupid, but I need to see if these sexy, strong foreigners might make better lovers and rulers."

    But that's the answer.

    Utter nonsense.

    MSM propaganda doesn’t show photos of “sexy strong foreigners who might make better lovers and rulers.” The only place one can find that is on alt-right and HBD sites and sources. Liberal and prog ladies are not looking at those sites and sources, which are run mostly by strong white men with strong opinions who’d make perfectly fine lovers and rulers…and in fact are what white women choose on dating sites (though white men don’t choose them).

    MSM propaganda–in cahoots with the intentions of billionaires and welfare profiteers like the Adolfsen brothers of Hero Norway and the major religions skimming hundreds of millions in tax dollars off this newest people-trafficking industry–MSM propaganda shows pathetic mothers, drowndeded toddlers, confused withered old people with apple-doll faces, and crying babies.

    They frame their propaganda to appeal to the milky or nullipara teat, not the juices down lower. Where your mind seems to be.

    As I talk to white women about the Muslim invasion of Europe, they don’t see it that way. All they know is what they have heard about a bunch of sad lost scared cats they can save from the kill shelter. All the incipient clockmaking geniuses, thwarted by war.

    All the poor sad lost suffering people…who can supply them with the ultimate feminist myth and victory: Everywoman becoming the Second Coming of Jesus, impaled on a cross of iPhone-delivered 24/7 left wing victimization porn.

    Saving the world…with mass migration and the erasure of N and NW European genome. (Which somehow got identified with Satan…more on that in another comment.)

    Don’t you flippin’ realize that this entire set piece of propaganda is the coup de grace of MSM mythmaking since the 1960s?

    That’s the one that took bolshie Jews’ Kosher Frankfurt-er politics and turned it into the prevailing, dominant, full-saturation mass culture of the US? The one that never met a Prometheus or Agamemnon or Thorfinn Skull-Splitter it didn’t despise, while lusting after that shiksa b***h Helen?

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    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    All the poor sad lost suffering people…who can supply them with the ultimate feminist myth and victory: Everywoman becoming the Second Coming of Jesus, impaled on a cross of iPhone-delivered 24/7 left wing victimization porn.

     

    Yes, this is it exactly -- very well put.

    Heretical western leftists, in various avatars, including the feminist, have hijacked the great Christian narrative, in their pride putting themselves in the place of the Savior. And since they are so utterly unqualified for this role, they cannot but fail to treat the objects of their salvific endeavors as much less than human.

    That is, to them:

    Muslim refugees = starving 3rd worlders = poor ghetto kids in USA = Cecil the Lion (as an asute commenter pointed out in a previous thread -- was it you, Olorin?)

    But the heretical leftist must keep all of these 'victims' at arm's length, as abstractions, because allowing oneself to see them in their full humanity (or leonicity, as the case may be), makes the absurdity of any fallen human trying to save another so obvious.

    And you've also beautifully captured the wallowing in ersatz suffering the feminists and SJWs so enjoy.

    Finally, how does all this delusional self-exaltation fit in with the concomitant theme of western self-hatred? Well, when you usurp the Savior and set yourself up in His place, only to see your actions result in chaos and destruction, at least some part of your being recognizes your grotesque failure. You're a lousy savior, and you know you always will be . . . .

    These two equally self-destructive themes play on in counterpoint throughout the ruins of Christendom.

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  63. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    Enough please with the Whiskey style White Women Want Dark Meat crap.

    We know from OK Cupid's data, based on who responds to whom, that white girls have a gigantix preference for white men, indeed the strongest racial preference of any one group for another. Much stronger than while males preference for white women. Only black women's preference for black men is comparable.

    Further, if German women really liked Middle Eastern men that much, there have been Turks there for quite a while, and they are generally more masculine than the Syrians they easily conquered and oppressed for hundreds of years. Yet Turk/German intermarriage is pretty low.

    The reason why we have mass third world immigration is easily explained by hatred of whites by the far left and desire for cheap labor by elites. I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.

    This mass migration has a sexual vibe not because the outspoken women in favor of it seek individual hookups. I doubt the Swedish girl I mentioned was rabid for sexual experience in Africa although I assume she was open to it.

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.

    i.e. children of migrants will get along with Swedish children and intermarry with Swedes. This could be seen as a form of self-hatred because it is self-destruction but self-justification is used. The reasoning goes that if Nordic purity caused so much horror a century ago then it will create harmony to become racially mixed. In this way it’s framed by otherwise well adjusted intellectual Swedish girls like her (who are left of center rather than far left in the local context) that it is a mark of progress.

    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden. The need for cheap labor by Swedish oligarchs who have strong influence on a government docile to big business causing the migration wave is even more preposterous than the dark meat hypothesis. There are strong intellectual origins causing the migration wave, ideas with much wider sympathy than within the limits of far left enclaves.

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    • Replies: @Romanian

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.
     
    Man, are they in for a shock. I have the benefit of being a Hesperophile who has traveled almost exclusively outside the West for work. I never saw something there that I wanted to take home that I didn't already have at home (except for Chinese infrastructure), and I saw plenty of things that I want to keep there, good fences making good neighbors and all that. The racism is also strong outside of the West. I had a Chinese visitor to Romania and we went out for one of those lunches where someone important who wasn't on the official schedule happens to stop by for a chat and a handshake. We're making small talk and asking the Chinese about his visit so far and his walks in the very nice areas surrounding his hotel. He presents the timeworn platitudes, but then adds something in a loud voice, that nearly made my drink shoot out of my nose - "I have also seen some of the Gypsies. Why do you let them walk the streets? In China we would put them in camps or somewhere they wouldn't be seen... I think the West has very good heart in taking the refugees, but not very smart. China already has its minorities, it doesn't need new ones".

    Those stupid genocidaires in the West...
    , @TangoMan
    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden.

    Migrants who get welfare are still consumers of goods and services provided by Big Business. Walmart would rather sell crap to Mexicans in the US, where it has a dominant position, than break into Mexico's market and in case walmart is already dominant in Mexico, substitute Somalia.

    A big component of top-line growth is a growing population.

    Privatize the gains and socialize the losses.
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  64. @Sam Haysom
    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. "Why doesn't the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don't want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn."

    Most cultures demand a level of exposure to risk and hard labor that ensured a base line level of virility in men. yours is a perfect encapsulation of red-pill alt-rightery though. “Why doesn’t the government make chicks sleep with us like it did in the Middle Ages. Only we don’t want to have to do any of the snake-handling religious crap or go to church. Also we want a ton of porn.”

    Thread winner.

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  65. @tbraton
    I wasn't familiar with the name Philip Tetlock when I posted the following message on TAC 4-1/2 years ago (in response to a Phil Giraldi blog), although it seems to fall more in the category of superUNforecasting by the noted CIA analyst (to go with Tetlock's pretty damn good call of a coming Soviet breakup):

    "tbraton says:
    April 19, 2011 at 9:25 am
    “The utter wastefulness of this spending is really brought into focus when you consider the abysmal track record of the CIA. What are we getting for all this money–just more of the same failure!”

    When Bob Gates was at the CIA in the 1980’s, his area of specialty was the Soviet Union. Wikipedia has the following anecdote under the heading “Predictions of Soviet Collapse”:

    “Steward Brand said when introducing the work of Philip Tetlock that Brand’s partner had given a talk in the 1980s to top CIA people about the future of the Soviet Union. One scenario he raised was that the Soviet bloc might break up; a sign of this happening would be the rise of unknown Mikhail Gorbachev through the party ranks. A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates

    I can remember reading a review of a book written by a female analyst at the Hoover Institution around 1983 to 1985 with the title “The Coming Economic Collapse of the Soviet Union” or something like that. I have been trying to track down the book but have been unsuccessful so far."

    [Note: another poster came up with the name of the female analyst I was searching for, Judy Shelton, and I posted the correct name of her book, "The Coming Soviet Crash" (1989), along with the correct date of publication. Remembering the past can sometimes be as hard as forecasting the future.]

    A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates

    World events were feeling awfully hinky/unusual through spring/summer 1989, but I’d say it wasn’t until autumn 1989 and especially the opening of the Berlin Wall that this wasn’t the view of nearly everyone on planet earth who had an opinion on the topic. The Soviet Union was just part of the firmament.

    1989 was truly a year of miracles and I’m very happy I had the opportunity to both live and participate in those times.

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    • Replies: @tbraton
    There were two events cited in my message, the prediction by Gates that the Soviet Union would be in existence when his grandchildren were alive and Judy Shelton's prediction that the Soviet collapse was near. The Gates' comment happened a few years before 1989. Shelton's book was published in the summer of 1989, but she had been working on the book for several years before it was published. BTW the Berlin Wall only was opened up in November 1989. Even after the Wall came down, there was no assurance that the Soviet Union would break up. That happened two years later and surprised many people when it occurred. So it still remains a very bad call by Gates and a very good call by Shelton.
    , @Anonymous
    1989 wasn't surprising at all. I called it in 1987 and by 1988 a large proportion of USSR population knew where Warsaw Bloc is heading.
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  66. @AndrewR
    Alpha and beta are relative terms. Whom a woman prefers depends on cultural context as well as the pool of realistically potential mates for that woman. A very attractive woman is in a better position to score a successful and confident man. A broke, no-name female who looked like, say, Lena Dunham would have to settle for a loser and/or beta.

    Actually, come to think of it, so will Dunham herself. I'm not well off but she couldn't pay me enough to date her...

    I don’t want to get into the whole issue here, and the whole alpha/beta thing seems a bit too simple and a bit skeevy, but the way I’ve read about it suggests that you are already saying exactly what heartiste is, but not realizing the implications.
    - There is a lot of noise in the culture about what constitutes a desirable man and it isn’t aligning properly with the actual societal good – happy, long-term relationships with resource commitment and parental involvement from the man between similar people
    - Women want the best man they can get, even if it means trading up.
    - Women waiting for the best possible men and ideal life circumstances (career in place, wild oats sown etc) are waiting too long before they settle down and start having children, leading to smaller families, difficulties conceiving and other issues, such as higher incidences of adverse effects on the health of the child
    - Women like Lena Dunham might not get the best man to be theirs to keep, but they might, ocassionally, be a practice run, curiosity or fodder for the appetites of a better man, increasing their expectations for the kind of permanent mate they can attract beyond what is reasonable. It’s all about informational asymmetry. Heartiste had a few posts on the “alpha widow”.
    - Marriage to a beta might not be all that fulfilling, even to a person’s whose head is not in the clouds. The appeal of what ifs after responding to the biological urge to have children and keeping in mind the state apparatus to enforce resource provision from the man after the relationship has ended can lead to higher incidences of broken marriages or simply unhappiness in the woman which poisons the relationship.
    - A lot of attractive women end up ruining themselves (and their chances at keeping the best sort of man) in the process, either by wasting most of their “dowry” on youthful indiscretions, and leaving the pieces there to be picked up by a beta who thinks himself lucky, or by compromising themselves socially after being lied to that it doesn’t matter.

    The way I see it is not that the Alphas are all dicks and the women are improperly wired for this day and age (so are the men), it’s that the prevailing culture has led good men towards not understanding and abandoning the gender facade evolved over millennia that let them compete properly with others in addition to their innate traits like family orientation, and it’s only the dicks who are still Alphas, which gives them scarcity value.

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    • Agree: AndrewR
    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    There's no substitute for thinking about how you should live, and then trying to implement your conclusions.

    Your discussion about what are to me widespread vices (mistakes people make with an expectation of happiness, but that lead to misery) reminds me of Albert J. Nock's discussion of the Remnant vs the Masses in his 1936 column Isaiah's Job.

    Most people have no idea how to find the path to happiness. They are members of the masses and their lives are like pinballs in a pinball machine, they simply follow the herd wherever it goes. Prozac Nation is for them. They are the bulk of people about whom we read in every humanitarian tragedy and violent crime. Through mass-mindedness they practically volunteer to be thrown under the hooves of the Four Horsemen.

    A few people apply a little thought to the question and while not every conclusion is shared, the bulk of actions dictated are pretty obvious. They also conflict massively with today's pop culture Pied Piper.

    I'm happily married, 33 years so far, and raised three sons who are all happy and successful by all appearances. How many people have asked my wife or me how we did it? (It wasn't all that difficult...)

    None.
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  67. @Anonymous
    This mass migration has a sexual vibe not because the outspoken women in favor of it seek individual hookups. I doubt the Swedish girl I mentioned was rabid for sexual experience in Africa although I assume she was open to it.

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.

    i.e. children of migrants will get along with Swedish children and intermarry with Swedes. This could be seen as a form of self-hatred because it is self-destruction but self-justification is used. The reasoning goes that if Nordic purity caused so much horror a century ago then it will create harmony to become racially mixed. In this way it's framed by otherwise well adjusted intellectual Swedish girls like her (who are left of center rather than far left in the local context) that it is a mark of progress.

    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden. The need for cheap labor by Swedish oligarchs who have strong influence on a government docile to big business causing the migration wave is even more preposterous than the dark meat hypothesis. There are strong intellectual origins causing the migration wave, ideas with much wider sympathy than within the limits of far left enclaves.

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.

    Man, are they in for a shock. I have the benefit of being a Hesperophile who has traveled almost exclusively outside the West for work. I never saw something there that I wanted to take home that I didn’t already have at home (except for Chinese infrastructure), and I saw plenty of things that I want to keep there, good fences making good neighbors and all that. The racism is also strong outside of the West. I had a Chinese visitor to Romania and we went out for one of those lunches where someone important who wasn’t on the official schedule happens to stop by for a chat and a handshake. We’re making small talk and asking the Chinese about his visit so far and his walks in the very nice areas surrounding his hotel. He presents the timeworn platitudes, but then adds something in a loud voice, that nearly made my drink shoot out of my nose – “I have also seen some of the Gypsies. Why do you let them walk the streets? In China we would put them in camps or somewhere they wouldn’t be seen… I think the West has very good heart in taking the refugees, but not very smart. China already has its minorities, it doesn’t need new ones”.

    Those stupid genocidaires in the West…

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  68. @anonguy

    A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates
     
    World events were feeling awfully hinky/unusual through spring/summer 1989, but I'd say it wasn't until autumn 1989 and especially the opening of the Berlin Wall that this wasn't the view of nearly everyone on planet earth who had an opinion on the topic. The Soviet Union was just part of the firmament.

    1989 was truly a year of miracles and I'm very happy I had the opportunity to both live and participate in those times.

    There were two events cited in my message, the prediction by Gates that the Soviet Union would be in existence when his grandchildren were alive and Judy Shelton’s prediction that the Soviet collapse was near. The Gates’ comment happened a few years before 1989. Shelton’s book was published in the summer of 1989, but she had been working on the book for several years before it was published. BTW the Berlin Wall only was opened up in November 1989. Even after the Wall came down, there was no assurance that the Soviet Union would break up. That happened two years later and surprised many people when it occurred. So it still remains a very bad call by Gates and a very good call by Shelton.

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  69. @Ben Tzot-Abrit

    "I’d say that has turned out to be a pretty good prediction, although whether I committed definitively enough to rack up points would be a matter of opinion."
     
    Credit where credit is due. Steve, when you were writing posts about "World War T" some time back, I thought you were going off on a weird tangent. You definitely committed to it. You saw it coming, and you nailed it.

    Yes indeed – that was about the only thing I’ve been surprised by in years.

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  70. @anonguy

    A CIA analyst said that the presentation was fine, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up in his lifetime or his children’s lifetime. The analyst’s name was Robert Gates.[36]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_Soviet_collapse#Robert_Gates
     
    World events were feeling awfully hinky/unusual through spring/summer 1989, but I'd say it wasn't until autumn 1989 and especially the opening of the Berlin Wall that this wasn't the view of nearly everyone on planet earth who had an opinion on the topic. The Soviet Union was just part of the firmament.

    1989 was truly a year of miracles and I'm very happy I had the opportunity to both live and participate in those times.

    1989 wasn’t surprising at all. I called it in 1987 and by 1988 a large proportion of USSR population knew where Warsaw Bloc is heading.

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  71. @Olorin
    Utter nonsense.

    MSM propaganda doesn't show photos of "sexy strong foreigners who might make better lovers and rulers." The only place one can find that is on alt-right and HBD sites and sources. Liberal and prog ladies are not looking at those sites and sources, which are run mostly by strong white men with strong opinions who'd make perfectly fine lovers and rulers...and in fact are what white women choose on dating sites (though white men don't choose them).

    MSM propaganda--in cahoots with the intentions of billionaires and welfare profiteers like the Adolfsen brothers of Hero Norway and the major religions skimming hundreds of millions in tax dollars off this newest people-trafficking industry--MSM propaganda shows pathetic mothers, drowndeded toddlers, confused withered old people with apple-doll faces, and crying babies.

    They frame their propaganda to appeal to the milky or nullipara teat, not the juices down lower. Where your mind seems to be.

    As I talk to white women about the Muslim invasion of Europe, they don't see it that way. All they know is what they have heard about a bunch of sad lost scared cats they can save from the kill shelter. All the incipient clockmaking geniuses, thwarted by war.

    All the poor sad lost suffering people...who can supply them with the ultimate feminist myth and victory: Everywoman becoming the Second Coming of Jesus, impaled on a cross of iPhone-delivered 24/7 left wing victimization porn.

    Saving the world...with mass migration and the erasure of N and NW European genome. (Which somehow got identified with Satan...more on that in another comment.)

    Don't you flippin' realize that this entire set piece of propaganda is the coup de grace of MSM mythmaking since the 1960s?

    That's the one that took bolshie Jews' Kosher Frankfurt-er politics and turned it into the prevailing, dominant, full-saturation mass culture of the US? The one that never met a Prometheus or Agamemnon or Thorfinn Skull-Splitter it didn't despise, while lusting after that shiksa b***h Helen?

    All the poor sad lost suffering people…who can supply them with the ultimate feminist myth and victory: Everywoman becoming the Second Coming of Jesus, impaled on a cross of iPhone-delivered 24/7 left wing victimization porn.

    Yes, this is it exactly — very well put.

    Heretical western leftists, in various avatars, including the feminist, have hijacked the great Christian narrative, in their pride putting themselves in the place of the Savior. And since they are so utterly unqualified for this role, they cannot but fail to treat the objects of their salvific endeavors as much less than human.

    That is, to them:

    Muslim refugees = starving 3rd worlders = poor ghetto kids in USA = Cecil the Lion (as an asute commenter pointed out in a previous thread — was it you, Olorin?)

    But the heretical leftist must keep all of these ‘victims’ at arm’s length, as abstractions, because allowing oneself to see them in their full humanity (or leonicity, as the case may be), makes the absurdity of any fallen human trying to save another so obvious.

    And you’ve also beautifully captured the wallowing in ersatz suffering the feminists and SJWs so enjoy.

    Finally, how does all this delusional self-exaltation fit in with the concomitant theme of western self-hatred? Well, when you usurp the Savior and set yourself up in His place, only to see your actions result in chaos and destruction, at least some part of your being recognizes your grotesque failure. You’re a lousy savior, and you know you always will be . . . .

    These two equally self-destructive themes play on in counterpoint throughout the ruins of Christendom.

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  72. @Jim Don Bob
    Ezra Klein of Vox is a Capital F F*****g moron. One of the best things Jeff Bezos did when he bought the Washington Post was to tell young Ezra to take a hike. EK wanted Jeff to pony up $10 million for his website.

    I gotta believe that it really grinds the old lefty "journalists" to see the praise heaped on these kids for saying crap like this: "My friends on the right don’t like to hear this, but the Constitution is not a clear document. Written 100 years ago, when America had 13 states and very different problems, it rarely speaks directly to the questions we ask it." (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2010/12/30/ezra-klein-on-constitution-its-confusing-because-its-over-100-years-old/).

    But the left does not do circular firing squads.

    Not a fan of Ezra Klein, but he’s right that the Constitution isn’t a clear document. An example brought up on LOTB’s blog this week is the phrase “natural born citizen”. It’s mentioned in the Constitution as a requirement for presidents, but it’s not defined.

    Another example is the 2nd Amendment. What’s the point of the first clause? Is it meant to constrain the second clause, as lefties suggest? It’s unclear.

    Basically, “Constitutional” is whatever the courts decide it is. Abortion, gay marriage, whatever.

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    "Another example is the 2nd Amendment. What’s the point of the first clause? Is it meant to constrain the second clause, as lefties suggest? It’s unclear."

    It means you can have your own armies as long as they are well-ordered -- i.e., they don't rape and pillage.
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  73. @Anonymous
    This mass migration has a sexual vibe not because the outspoken women in favor of it seek individual hookups. I doubt the Swedish girl I mentioned was rabid for sexual experience in Africa although I assume she was open to it.

    Left wing Western Europeans are seeking to change their societies through race mixing in generational terms. They want their whole society to change and became the doctrinaire embodiment of antiracism.

    i.e. children of migrants will get along with Swedish children and intermarry with Swedes. This could be seen as a form of self-hatred because it is self-destruction but self-justification is used. The reasoning goes that if Nordic purity caused so much horror a century ago then it will create harmony to become racially mixed. In this way it's framed by otherwise well adjusted intellectual Swedish girls like her (who are left of center rather than far left in the local context) that it is a mark of progress.

    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden. The need for cheap labor by Swedish oligarchs who have strong influence on a government docile to big business causing the migration wave is even more preposterous than the dark meat hypothesis. There are strong intellectual origins causing the migration wave, ideas with much wider sympathy than within the limits of far left enclaves.

    I seriously doubt big business interests have anything more than minor influence or actively lobby for huge migrant waves in Sweden.

    Migrants who get welfare are still consumers of goods and services provided by Big Business. Walmart would rather sell crap to Mexicans in the US, where it has a dominant position, than break into Mexico’s market and in case walmart is already dominant in Mexico, substitute Somalia.

    A big component of top-line growth is a growing population.

    Privatize the gains and socialize the losses.

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  74. @Dave Pinsen
    Not a fan of Ezra Klein, but he's right that the Constitution isn't a clear document. An example brought up on LOTB's blog this week is the phrase "natural born citizen". It's mentioned in the Constitution as a requirement for presidents, but it's not defined.

    Another example is the 2nd Amendment. What's the point of the first clause? Is it meant to constrain the second clause, as lefties suggest? It's unclear.

    Basically, "Constitutional" is whatever the courts decide it is. Abortion, gay marriage, whatever.

    “Another example is the 2nd Amendment. What’s the point of the first clause? Is it meant to constrain the second clause, as lefties suggest? It’s unclear.”

    It means you can have your own armies as long as they are well-ordered — i.e., they don’t rape and pillage.

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  75. @Sam Haysom
    Steve do you fly anymore? The only person I've seen reading a book on a plane that didn't have a guy with long hair and no shirt on the cover is me. I don't think I've ever seen someone in a dress pants open a book on a plane.

    Where do you fly to/from? Maybe it’s because I fly out of Boston, but books are everywhere at Logan and on the departing flights. Laptops have cut into that number over the past 8-10 years, however.

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    Houston-so you are right it might be regional differences accounting for the lack of books I see. I hardly ever end up on the East Coast so I'm probally just not seeing the readers.
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  76. @Lot
    Enough please with the Whiskey style White Women Want Dark Meat crap.

    We know from OK Cupid's data, based on who responds to whom, that white girls have a gigantix preference for white men, indeed the strongest racial preference of any one group for another. Much stronger than while males preference for white women. Only black women's preference for black men is comparable.

    Further, if German women really liked Middle Eastern men that much, there have been Turks there for quite a while, and they are generally more masculine than the Syrians they easily conquered and oppressed for hundreds of years. Yet Turk/German intermarriage is pretty low.

    The reason why we have mass third world immigration is easily explained by hatred of whites by the far left and desire for cheap labor by elites. I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.

    People need to be repeatedly slapped in the face with it before they get it.

    I first saw it with a friend of friends. A pleasant and attractive enough girl, but about 80 pounds overweight. She had the Tess Holliday thing about her, pretty but huge. She also had 2 mulatto kids with 2 different guys.

    She started going to the gym, and she would ask me for advice. I showed her a few basics and gave her a workout routine, and she worked pretty hard. I mentioned how motivated she was, and she said she was sick of being ignored by men she found attractive. She dropped 65 pounds in what seemed like a matter of 4 months, and she looked really good. Her face, pretty to begin with, thinned out and she kept her curvy proportions. Her self-confidence grew, and she signed up on a dating site. Things seemed to be moving in the right direction for her.

    A few more months passed, and I noticed she stopped coming to the gym. I didn’t see her for a about 6 months. Then I ran into her at the coffee shop and we caught up for a while. She said she had been on a few dates and they seemed to go well, but no one came back for a second date and she couldn’t figure it out. I asked her if her dates picked her up at home and met her kids. She said that she said she had kids on her dating profile and guys shouldn’t have been surprised. I said yeah, but did she identify them as mixed race? She was truly flabbergasted that her dalliances with black men would cause white men to dismiss her. I asked her if she wanted the truth, and she said she did. I told her the problem wasn’t that she slept with black guys, which could be hidden or forgiven, but that she reproduced with them…twice. A pretty substantial percentage of men won’t date women with another man’s kids of the same race, I said, never mind a different one.

    She said she thought that might be the case, even though we live in an oh-so-SWPL town where racism is scrupulously sanctioned by the Thought Police. She then said she had a hard question for me: would I date her (rhetorical, as I’m 15 years her elder)? I truthfully said no, because I have no interest in doing the tap dance around her kids’ cultural duality, as both her baby daddies come around on an unpredictably infrequent basis. Nothing to do with me, she asked? No, everything to do with you, I said, the kids were your choice. She nodded contemplatively.

    This was about 2 years ago, and I’ve not seen or spoken to her since. I asked our mutual friend what she was up to, and was told that she joined the cheap $10 gym and she gained back about half the weight she lost, but she seemed happy and was dating a very pleasant black guy she met through work. The happiest ending one could hope for. It’s a hard lesson to learn when you finally realize that your life is dictated by decisions you made in your callow youth, but learning it allows you to get on with it as best you can.

    My question for the Whiskey/Heartiste crowd is this: if your beta/omega whatever is so desperate for women, why didn’t anyone want this woman? Or is the cuck thing that strong?

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  77. @Clifford Brown
    Not sure how to break this to you, Brother, but Vox Media received a $200 Million Dollar venture investment from NBC Universal in 2015. The company's current evaluation is likely around $850 Million Dollars. Not Amazon money, but still real money.

    Seems crazy, yes, but what the hell do I know? If it makes you feel better, the real value in Vox Media is not so much in the smug, clueless pontifications of Ezra Klein and Matthew Yglesias, but in the decidedly less intellectual SB Nation sports platform.

    The delicious irony is that Vox prides itself in not allowing comments from the hoi polloi so that their staid Leftist consensus declarations go unchallenged as Gospel because "Commenting is Dead", but the most profitable Vox Media property, SB Nation, features a raucous and loose commentating policy that attracts hundreds of comments to various threads.

    Yeah, well, the Boston Globe was allegedly worth $1.1 billion when the Times bought it. It was really worth $70 million, which Red $ox owner John Henry paid for it in 2013.

    http://nypost.com/2013/08/03/new-york-times-sells-boston-globe-for-93-percent-loss/

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  78. @Brutusale
    Where do you fly to/from? Maybe it's because I fly out of Boston, but books are everywhere at Logan and on the departing flights. Laptops have cut into that number over the past 8-10 years, however.

    Houston-so you are right it might be regional differences accounting for the lack of books I see. I hardly ever end up on the East Coast so I’m probally just not seeing the readers.

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  79. @anon
    The people who crave the complete destruction of the european peoples like to say this - and it can be persuasive for people who look at alternative news sites because those sites focus on the military aged male aspect of the invasion - but the truth is the opposite and in plain sight when you look at the pictures used by the mainstream media to manipulate the public.

    The pictures the MSM show are nearly always children and mothers in distress.

    You're right the deliberate destruction of the european peoples is being brought about because of western women but the reason is the media are deliberately manipulating their sympathy for the children.

    Just look at any msm news since it started.

    What was the major turning point in the media's propaganda campaign - the dead kid on the beach.

    The women welcome the men.
    They use the MSM story of “the children” to simply rationalize their otherwise obviously irrational actions.

    The decision to indulge in a vice (and leftism is clearly a dopamine addiction and self-destructive, so it’s a vice) is made in the reward center of the brain, not the neo-cortex.

    The neo-cortex is simply engaged to provide the mind with an ego-snuggling rationalization for what is otherwise obviously stupid.

    I strongly suspect the neo-cortex exists primarily to provide rationalizations.

    I’ll add that the panoply of leftist positions, as a vice, has a genetic basis just as do addictions to mind-altering substances, gambling and pornography…oh, and repeated self-destructive relationships with others. Find one, you’ll find others. I’m betting it all ends up being nearly the same gene sequences, positions and/or frequencies.

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  80. @Richard S
    When the Orientals inherit the earth, and the rest of humanity lives in a kind of moronic helotry, slaving away in labour battalions for the new global masters (who won't commit civilisational suicide like Europe did); there will remain legends of a vanished race of giants who actually composed symphonic music, sent space probes outside of our star system, and once bestrode the moon, after having first conquered their homeworld with contemptuous ease.

    And like the tragic characters of myth they were, they could never be beaten by superior force of arms or cleverer strategies, but were ultimately overthrown by their own superior moral principles which they mistook for universal truisms.

    We were the protean Titans of the human folkgroups. Border collies can breed with wolves, but I know which ones are better suited to civilisation.

    East Asians can’t do what Western Civ did. Ask any engineer who works with Chinese engineers. It’s not in their culture to rock the boat, so if there isn’t someone to copy, there’s no innovation.

    China had a civilization for a heck of a long time, but never science. The SF programs showing Chinese people spreading to the stars are silly. Ain’t going to happen. Ever.

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  81. Most forecasting seems to rely on straight-line projection.

    I like Robert Prechter’s Socionomics (and/or Wave Principle) approach as it is more about patterns, reversals and a direction of social causality that makes sense of a lot of fallacies (e.g., that war is good for economies and stock markets, which is so phenomenally stupid that its persistence is almost comical.)

    http://www.socionomics.net/

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  82. @Romanian
    I don't want to get into the whole issue here, and the whole alpha/beta thing seems a bit too simple and a bit skeevy, but the way I've read about it suggests that you are already saying exactly what heartiste is, but not realizing the implications.
    - There is a lot of noise in the culture about what constitutes a desirable man and it isn't aligning properly with the actual societal good - happy, long-term relationships with resource commitment and parental involvement from the man between similar people
    - Women want the best man they can get, even if it means trading up.
    - Women waiting for the best possible men and ideal life circumstances (career in place, wild oats sown etc) are waiting too long before they settle down and start having children, leading to smaller families, difficulties conceiving and other issues, such as higher incidences of adverse effects on the health of the child
    - Women like Lena Dunham might not get the best man to be theirs to keep, but they might, ocassionally, be a practice run, curiosity or fodder for the appetites of a better man, increasing their expectations for the kind of permanent mate they can attract beyond what is reasonable. It's all about informational asymmetry. Heartiste had a few posts on the "alpha widow".
    - Marriage to a beta might not be all that fulfilling, even to a person's whose head is not in the clouds. The appeal of what ifs after responding to the biological urge to have children and keeping in mind the state apparatus to enforce resource provision from the man after the relationship has ended can lead to higher incidences of broken marriages or simply unhappiness in the woman which poisons the relationship.
    - A lot of attractive women end up ruining themselves (and their chances at keeping the best sort of man) in the process, either by wasting most of their "dowry" on youthful indiscretions, and leaving the pieces there to be picked up by a beta who thinks himself lucky, or by compromising themselves socially after being lied to that it doesn't matter.

    The way I see it is not that the Alphas are all dicks and the women are improperly wired for this day and age (so are the men), it's that the prevailing culture has led good men towards not understanding and abandoning the gender facade evolved over millennia that let them compete properly with others in addition to their innate traits like family orientation, and it's only the dicks who are still Alphas, which gives them scarcity value.

    There’s no substitute for thinking about how you should live, and then trying to implement your conclusions.

    Your discussion about what are to me widespread vices (mistakes people make with an expectation of happiness, but that lead to misery) reminds me of Albert J. Nock’s discussion of the Remnant vs the Masses in his 1936 column Isaiah’s Job.

    Most people have no idea how to find the path to happiness. They are members of the masses and their lives are like pinballs in a pinball machine, they simply follow the herd wherever it goes. Prozac Nation is for them. They are the bulk of people about whom we read in every humanitarian tragedy and violent crime. Through mass-mindedness they practically volunteer to be thrown under the hooves of the Four Horsemen.

    A few people apply a little thought to the question and while not every conclusion is shared, the bulk of actions dictated are pretty obvious. They also conflict massively with today’s pop culture Pied Piper.

    I’m happily married, 33 years so far, and raised three sons who are all happy and successful by all appearances. How many people have asked my wife or me how we did it? (It wasn’t all that difficult…)

    None.

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  83. @Lot
    Enough please with the Whiskey style White Women Want Dark Meat crap.

    We know from OK Cupid's data, based on who responds to whom, that white girls have a gigantix preference for white men, indeed the strongest racial preference of any one group for another. Much stronger than while males preference for white women. Only black women's preference for black men is comparable.

    Further, if German women really liked Middle Eastern men that much, there have been Turks there for quite a while, and they are generally more masculine than the Syrians they easily conquered and oppressed for hundreds of years. Yet Turk/German intermarriage is pretty low.

    The reason why we have mass third world immigration is easily explained by hatred of whites by the far left and desire for cheap labor by elites. I assure you Adelsona and the Koch Brothers are not secretly gay for Somali goatherds.

    John Wright nailed this on another site.

    Such women are “addicted to a false sense of moral superiority.”

    This is literally true. They demonstrate all the symptoms of people engaging in a vice no different from alcoholism, gambling or pornography. Their virtue-signalling gives them the same dopamine rush, and their comments intended to explain their actions are the purest rationalization. The only difference is the harm of their actions falls not just on them but everyone. The blast zone of their vice is not limited to family and friends.

    This is why trying to debate them is fruitless. You would be as likely to convince a monkey sitting in front of a pressure switch that passes a current to electrodes implanted in the monkey’s pleasure center of the brain, to stop pressing the bar.

    Its Not. Going. To. Happen. The monkey will sit there pressing the bar until it dies. These women can no more help themselves than can the monkey.

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  84. “I have also seen some of the Gypsies. Why do you let them walk the streets? In China we would put them in camps or somewhere they wouldn’t be seen… I think the West has very good heart in taking the refugees, but not very smart. China already has its minorities, it doesn’t need new ones”.

    He’s right tho

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  85. Seems like nothing a little fascism wouldn’t solve.

    If Germany continues to believe that all humans are equal, that domestic majorities are equal to immigrant minorities, then they deserve what they get.

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  86. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    a weird sexual vibe that nobody yet has explained satisfactorily even in retrospect.
     
    I had a while back a conversation with a Swedish girl doing volunteer work in Africa. She had come to visit friends in a dangerous African city and traveled alone. Even on the Swedish scale she was above average in leftist internationalism. We talked about immigrants from far away places living in Sweden and at one point she remarked in an elated way that down the line there would be a day when people are mixed all around so no more blondes would exist and the world would all look the same. What was striking was her demeanor that seemed to relish this glorious vision of the future. She was blonde and had blue eyes and attractive so not one of those I want to wreck the world types because I'm not pretty and don't get laid.

    This conversation seems to me an express manifestation of probably what a lot of liberal Western Europeans want or are sympathetic to. Although others are not so blunt outside of Swedish leftism, the desire is to create a new stock of people in Europe through blending with other races. Such an idea is of course the product of a long reaction to WWII. If what brought so much destruction in the early 20th century in Europe centered on pride in Nordic supremacy, then a way to ensure that that tendency does not return is to make sure there are no longer any Nordic people.

    Although when expressly stated it seems far-fetched, there's a wide range of attitudes that are sympathetic to this end goal. So the sexual vibe you sense is real, there is a desire not for large scale race replacement but a desire to see other races amalgamated on a large scale into the European gene pool.

    This attitude actually antedates WW2. It is the Kudenhove-Calergi plan, dating from the 1920s. It was an elite opinion then, but incessant propaganda since WW2 spread it throughout the masses, and in the current crop of pathetic young degenerates, the so-called millenials, you see the first generation raised on that attitude from cradle to future grave. If they don’t snap out of it, all is lost.

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  87. […] caused one of Steve’s readers to contribute the following comment, slightly […]

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