Jim Flynn of Flynn Effect fame has been pointing out recently that in some places where rising IQ scores were best documented, such as Scandinavian countries with universal male conscription, his namesake phenomenon has seemed to go in reverse in recent years.
Now, from PNAS:
Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused
Bernt Bratsberg and Ole Rogeberg
PNAS June 11, 2018.
Edited by Richard E. Nisbett, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, and approved May 14, 2018 (received for review October 27, 2017)
Using administrative register data with information on family relationships and cognitive ability for three decades of Norwegian male birth cohorts, we show that the increase, turning point, and decline of the Flynn effect can be recovered from within-family variation in intelligence scores. This establishes that the large changes in average cohort intelligence reflect environmental factors and not changing composition of parents, which in turn rules out several prominent hypotheses for retrograde Flynn effects.
Population intelligence quotients increased throughout the 20th century—a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect—although recent years have seen a slowdown or reversal of this trend in several countries. To distinguish between the large set of proposed explanations, we categorize hypothesized causal factors by whether they accommodate the existence of within-family Flynn effects. Using administrative register data and cognitive ability scores from military conscription data covering three decades of Norwegian birth cohorts (1962–1991), we show that the observed Flynn effect, its turning point, and subsequent decline can all be fully recovered from within-family variation. The analysis controls for all factors shared by siblings and finds no evidence for prominent causal hypotheses of the decline implicating genes and environmental factors that vary between, but not within, families.