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UN Boosts Its Population Forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2100 to 4,002,000,000
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A few decades ago the world started losing interest in the global population explosion as most countries began to get their fertility under control. But in 2012, the United Nations revealed to the handful of people paying attention that it had severely underestimated the actual number of births in sub-Saharan Africa by trusting local government statistics. As African countries slowly became more competent at recording vital statistics, the UN discovered that its complacency about African population growth had been unwarranted. Fertility in Africa was declining far more slowly than had been assumed.

Then in 2015, the UN issued a new forecast revising its estimate for Africa up even higher.

And today the UN released its 2017 population prospects. (You can download the data here.)

The UN’s new 2017 forecast for the continent of Africa (including North Africa) in 2100 is, once again, higher: up 81 million from the last forecast to a new record of 4,468,000,000.

The UN says that the population of Sub-Saharan Africa (not including North Africa) in 1990 was 493,320,020, while in 2017 it is 1,022,664,451. By 2050, only 33 years from now, sub-Saharan Africa will have reached 2,167,651,879.

And by 2100, it will be 4,001,755,801. (That’s up from 3,935,000,000 in the 2015 Population Prospects: the UN has now raised its forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa in its last three revisions of Population Prospects.)

The UN’s 2100 estimates for individual countries’ populations sound like dystopian science fiction:

Nigeria 793,942,316
Democratic Republic of the Congo 378,975,244
United Republic of Tanzania 303,831,815
Ethiopia 249,529,919
Uganda 213,758,214
Niger 192,186,560
Angola 172,860,941
Kenya 142,123,899
Sudan 138,648,073
Mozambique 135,046,350
Côte d’Ivoire 103,563,352

Now, obviously, those numbers are unlikely to happen. Either Africans will take up family planning or they will hit hard their Malthusian ceiling or they will move in massive numbers to other continents or some combination of the three.

My preference is for the first of those three possibilities.

Here’s the 2017 version of the World’s Most Important Graph:

worlds most important graph 2017-e

 
    []
  1. Old fogey says:

    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Philip
    With regard to AIDS, the development of drugs that lead to lower transmission by infected persons, as well as vastly increased life-spans of those already affected, has led to the very significant fall in deaths from the virus. Also, some benefit of changed behaviours.
    , @MBlanc46
    Very large with much desert and arid savannah.
    , @Achmed E. Newman

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population?
     
    It was supposed to do more than decimate, maybe wipe out half of them, per these alarmists. OK, sorry, I'm a stickler - "decimate" means kill 1 in 10; people don't use it right, but there's no way to change the word's meaning without changing all the Greek (or Latin) number-roots.

    As to your overall point, I also think there is loads of false alarmism to attract more money. Charity executives gotta' eat too, and pretty well! (and they need natives for sex and all). On the AIDS thing, the big push was to keep the narrative going, that this was not just a gay thing - we ALL should be worried. True, you should worry, especially if you note in yourself that you have been watching a lot of musicals lately on the Telly, or Gladiator movies. In those cases, start to worry.

    For the rest of us, who are not intravenous drug users to boot, it was never a big risk. I don't know anyone personally who's ever had AIDS, so.. you know.
    , @Federalist
    Excellent point. We were led to believe that AIDS was going to cause the population of Africa to shrink. Often AIDS in Africa was portrayed as a modern day version of the medieval plague. Now we don't hear anything about that. Back then, if you would have said that Africa was going to have explosive population growth, the "experts" would have called you crazy.
    , @eD
    (on the slightly off topic comment #1)

    There is "the scientists are all wrong on AIDS' dissident school of thought, similar to the ones on global warning and vaccines. This one actually seems better grounded, at least the scientists supporting it are more impressive, and it does seem the announcement that a virus was causing all those deaths of gay people was something rolled out by Reagan's HHS in the 1980s in response to pressure from gay activists to just do something, anything, before the theory was really vetted.

    The dissident argument is that the fuss in the 1980s was about people dying young from a variety of unrelated causes, linked by unhealthy lifestyles, and was not part of a "syndrome", and that the treatment drugs initially caused more deaths, until the protocols were changed.

    However, you can agree with the mainstream ÄIDS is caused by HIV”argument and still think the accounts and predictions of massive numbers of people dying of heterosexually transmitted AIDS in Africa has been BS. First, Africa is the only continent in the world where heterosexual transmission has been a big mode of spread for HIV and AIDS, everywhere else its almost exclusively homosexual transmission or IV. Sometimes differences in African sexual practices are wheeled out to explain the discrepancy. Second, many of the areas supposedly hardest hit by AIDS have not exactly been doing much HIV testing and don’t really have the administrative structure to do this, or to maintain reliable health statistics either. Third, there is Africa’s explosive population growth, which historically has never happened in areas in the grip of deadly epidemics. So it really does seem that the whole ÄIDS epidemic in Africa”really was something concocted to get more NGOs involved and more western money.

    Incidentally one former President of South Africa said as much, and that was one of the reasons for his removal before the end of his term.
    , @res
    It would be interesting to see population projections for Africa assuming a life expectancy that had not been reduced ~20 years (in some cohorts) by AIDS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_in_Africa
    Any ideas what kind of assumptions the UN numbers make about life expectancy? Are they assuming increasing penetration of effective AIDS treatment in Africa?
    , @Fidelios Automata
    When AIDS first appeared, and it was the "gay plague", homophobic African politicians claimed their countries had none of that. Then when media propaganda convinced the public that the disease was an equal risk for straights, Africans suddenly discovered AIDS epidemics which required Western taxpayers to give them billions of dollars in AIDS aid.
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  2. Cheetah says:

    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    Read More
    • LOL: The Z Blog
    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?
    , @Eustace Tilley (not)
    It may interest you to know that in Niger a wife's status in the hierarchy of wives is determined by the number of children she bears; wives compete for status by having children. Niger has the highest birthrate in the world. (They are mostly Muslim, as you might have guessed).

    The religious right knows something you may not: contraception is the chief cause of female promiscuity and is thus destructive of the family and society in general. The religious right, like the political right, gets little exposure or support in the MSM (that's "Mainstream Media"). Check out https://heartiste.wordpress.com to learn about the catastrophic consequences of female sexual "liberation" in the West.

    I am perennially amused by nicewhites who actually believe that blacks have any interest at all in the consequences of their actions, or care one whit about the future. I have never seen any evidence to support that assumption.

    There is some hope: If trends in South Africa are any indication, science and medicine will deteriorate so badly under black rule that they will not be able to contain future epidemics, such as AIDS. This disease came from bonobos, which have had these pathogens in their bodies for a long time and have evolved tolerance for them. The practice of eating "bush meat" is probably how AIDS was introduced into human populations. Perhaps, somewhere in the dark rainforests of the Congo, sequestered for centuries in the bloodstreams of animals, lives the viral messiah that will save planet Earth, awaiting only the arrival of a hunter to liberate its Malthusian magic.

    , @Barnard
    The Gates Foundation and other private charitable groups have been promoting family planning in Africa for years. The problem is that the African people just don't seem to care for it. Most of them have never been fond of concepts like monogamy or anything else that would limit their own pleasure. The inability to convince Africans to change their personal behavior is the reason why there has been such limited success in reducing the rates HIV infection in Africa.
    , @nebulafox
    Madness. Another reason why I think Trump, far from being a 4D chessmaster, is a complete idiot.

    The Philippines suffers from the same problem. Anybody who has been there will understand why Duterte knows that the Church must be castrated and will heartily approve.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    Did Africa become part of the US recently? I haven't seen it on the fake news sites I go to.
    , @Neoconned
    Agreed a tiny investment now in contraception and other birth control (chemicals in the water supplies?) Will do a "stitch in time" dividend tjat will pay multiples later....

    Think of the reduced counterterrorism, war spending, refugee mitigation, etc expenditures. That doesnt even touch the saved costs from counterterrorism, prison costs, LE costs, welfare expenses, etc

    Investing in contraception now is a bargain.....
  3. Daniel H says:

    Or option d) they will slaughter each other in the tens, hundreds of millions. A preview of which we saw in Rwanda 20 years ago.

    Read More
    • Replies: @MW
    And yet, the population of Rwanda is at a record high, and growing rapidly. The slaughter was simply a ten-year hiatus in the ongoing trend.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/rwanda-population/

    Somalia, too.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/somalia-population/
  4. kihowi says:

    What are the statistics about the the parts of Africa outside of Africa? Meaning all the places where Africans are? I bet they’re not slowing down.

    The problem is not that Africa is becoming too small, it’s that there will be too many Africans. Whether they’re spawned over there and move over here or they’re already here, it’s the same to us.

    Read More
  5. TTSSYF says:
    @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don’t, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed “family planning”?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Samuel Skinner
    Their behavior is rational. If you stop having kids and your neighbors keep on having kids, in a generation they will be able to overrun you.
    , @Yak-15
    I agree in theory 100% but in practice this is not in our best interest. Unfortunately, our nation is filled with people incapable of understanding the conclusions that the overpopulation of Africa will entail - widespread war, famine and drought. The leftists amongst us will insist upon letting in the locusts by the tens of millions. They will also demand we feed and care for hundreds of millions in Africa as well.

    Either we stop them from reproducing or we live with the consequences of four billion of them. The last scenario is terrifying.
    , @nebulafox
    It is what it is: we'll end up with an even greater refugee mess eventually if we don't.

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000. The amount of money the West spends on that will be trivial compared to what we will spend on a whole lot of things if we let birthrates in Africa proceed like this...

    , @MBlanc46
    Self-directed? Good luck with that.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    If they could do self-directed family planning, we wouldn't be talking about them now.
    , @27 year old

    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don’t, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed “family planning”?
     
    I'm sorry this is offensive to boomer-conservative sensibilities but yes we are supposed to pay for it. We have no obligation to teach them a lesson about Personal Responsibility (tm). We have a self interest in minimizing the damage they can inflict on us and on our planet. As you say: otherwise they will destroy the continent and they will also destroy our continent too.

    Last year my mother was rear ended at low speed by a teenage girl. My mom asked for insurance info etc and the girl told my mom that she had no idea what to do in this situation and needed to call her own mom to help her. My mom recalled recalled with pride that she told that (entitled snowflake millennial idiot) girl that she needed to learn how to do these things herself and not rely on her parents.

    I told my mom she was totally nuts, and I think your attitude is also totally nuts. We need to do what will get the best result for us, not try to teach strangers a lesson about principles.
    , @psmith
    "Teach men not to rape!11!"
    , @Neoconned
    Its one of those cases where its cheaper to pay for the condoms, pills, or i guess chemicals in the water supplies now than pay for the prison, welfare, immigration, health care costs etc later.

    I was chatting ten minutes ago here in downtown San Antonio with these PETA idiots. I was explaining how zoos were preferable to all the big game going extinct from deforestation, habitat loss, and worse the pelt and bush meat industries.

    The goofy white girl literally said "whatever" & walked away.


    Whiskeys right, they got jungle fever.
  6. lavoisier says: • Website

    This is of course a major problem for Africa and for African people.

    It should not HAVE to be a problem for the responsible parts of the world that manage to control their population. But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic and the brain dead behavior patterns of the typical white liberal.

    The only legitimate state interest that the West should have regarding Africa is to insure that Africans stay in Africa. It is what many black people claim they want anyway–to be free of the racism of whitey.

    It is long past time that we treat African people like people–let them control their own destiny.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Exactly.

    No offense, Steve, but this is only the "World’s Most Important Graph" to suicidially idiotic Western countries that don't control their own borders and have lost their ability to think tribally. This graph is a curiousity to the Japanese, Koreans, Chinese and any other people who understand the concept and utility of a fence.

    What Africans choose to do in their own countries should be of no concern of mine. It's why we have separate countries.

    Europe and the United States deserve their fate if they allow in millions of low-IQ, short time horizon, wholly incompatible Africans. A better example of Survival of Fittest you likely will never see. It's not Survival of the Smartest or Survival of the Most Cultured or Survival of the Nicest. It's fucking Survival of Fittest, survival of those best suited for that particular environment.

    Right now, Africans are the most suited for this environment. Ironically, it's an environment created by whites, but that's irrelevant for the time being. Whites created the environment that caused them to decline and Africans to succeed. Darwin must be laughing somewhere - in between his tears.
    , @AndrewR
    The biodiversity of Africa is the entire world's business. Stop with the childish isolationism.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson

    But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic
     
    You are substituting a caricature for a genuine Christian ethic. If you think that Leftists advocate their positions because they are "Christian" you need to lie down and take fever-reducing medications. The Left uses (or, more accurately, abuses) Christianity as a cudgel to beat the weak-minded into submission to their Marxist agenda. But its relationship to Christianity is tenuous, warped and denigrated.

    Don't saw off the limb you, and we all, sit on.
  7. Anonym says:

    My preference is for the first of those three possibilities.

    Where is your sense of romance and adventure, Mr Sailer? I imagine it will go down something like this:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pat Boyle
    Of course the Welsh trooper is exactly right. African men have a fundamental speech frequency something like a major third below that of whites. This is why so many black actors are famous for their voices. Actors like James Earl Jones, or Dennis Hasbert.

    But what they gain on the low notes they lose on the top. There are rather fewer black tenors than you would expect. There is no black Pavarotti for example.

  8. @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    It may interest you to know that in Niger a wife’s status in the hierarchy of wives is determined by the number of children she bears; wives compete for status by having children. Niger has the highest birthrate in the world. (They are mostly Muslim, as you might have guessed).

    The religious right knows something you may not: contraception is the chief cause of female promiscuity and is thus destructive of the family and society in general. The religious right, like the political right, gets little exposure or support in the MSM (that’s “Mainstream Media”). Check out https://heartiste.wordpress.com to learn about the catastrophic consequences of female sexual “liberation” in the West.

    I am perennially amused by nicewhites who actually believe that blacks have any interest at all in the consequences of their actions, or care one whit about the future. I have never seen any evidence to support that assumption.

    There is some hope: If trends in South Africa are any indication, science and medicine will deteriorate so badly under black rule that they will not be able to contain future epidemics, such as AIDS. This disease came from bonobos, which have had these pathogens in their bodies for a long time and have evolved tolerance for them. The practice of eating “bush meat” is probably how AIDS was introduced into human populations. Perhaps, somewhere in the dark rainforests of the Congo, sequestered for centuries in the bloodstreams of animals, lives the viral messiah that will save planet Earth, awaiting only the arrival of a hunter to liberate its Malthusian magic.

    Read More
    • Agree: Kylie
    • Replies: @Pat Boyle
    Do you have a source for your claim that AIDS comes from bonobos?
  9. Even subtracting out the Sahara desert, Africa’s potentially arable land covers almost 3 million square miles. The nearly 3.5 billion people of China, the Indian subcontinent and South-East area live in a smaller area (leaving out the empty and arid western expanse of China).

    In my lifetime, the population of Africa has risen fivefold, from 200 million to 1 billion.

    Although African land has never been farmed as intensively as China’s or India’s, it is somewhat conceivable that Africa will actually hit that 4 billion population number in the next eight decades.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Barnard
    Good point. The Ivory Coast looks small on a map of Africa, but it is 124,000 square miles or about the size of New Mexico. There is a lot of arable land in Africa but it is almost certain the people of Africa won't be able to probably manage it to absorb even a small amount of population growth.
    , @benjaminl
    Many goodthinkers think that large-scale corporate mechanized agribusiness could help boost the food output of Africa a lot.

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/05/collier-on-the.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/01/mozambique-small-farmers-fear-brazilian-style-agriculture

    But rereading this, I am reminded of Steve's recent post about NAFTA.

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/a-classic-upside-down-nyt-article/

    Competing with modern corporate agriculture put a couple of million Mexican peons out of work and on the migration road. I wonder if something like that would happen in Africa. I guess we'll find out.
    , @Maj. Kong
    Cheap desalination could green the Sahara. Converting desert to farmland would have to make an impact on that CO2 problem we allegedly have.
  10. @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    Their behavior is rational. If you stop having kids and your neighbors keep on having kids, in a generation they will be able to overrun you.

    Read More
    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    It is only rational in a collectively irrational society.
  11. Yak-15 says:
    @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    I agree in theory 100% but in practice this is not in our best interest. Unfortunately, our nation is filled with people incapable of understanding the conclusions that the overpopulation of Africa will entail – widespread war, famine and drought. The leftists amongst us will insist upon letting in the locusts by the tens of millions. They will also demand we feed and care for hundreds of millions in Africa as well.

    Either we stop them from reproducing or we live with the consequences of four billion of them. The last scenario is terrifying.

    Read More
  12. Arclight says:

    This chart highlights why it’s critical that there be a sea change in American attitudes towards immigration – at the end of the century we will still have a relatively low density continent and will presumably still be far and away the wealthiest society on Earth. The pressures to take in the millions of people from more crowded places who want to leave will be immense but it has to be resisted if we want to maintain the standard of living we have. Same goes for Western Europe but I have much less faith in their ability to do what is necessary unless the EU mostly goes away and questions of national sovereignty and immigration revert to individual countries.

    Read More
  13. George says:

    How about selling more weapons to Africa and fomenting national conflicts. While we are at it enforcing payment of odious debts would work too. Selling as many U-Boats as possible to Eastern European and Mediterranean nations would help too.

    Read More
  14. Am I wrong, or does China now own most of the arable land in Africa? Something I may have heard a while ago.

    Read More
  15. Hail says: • Website

    Roughly interpolating from that data:

    By 2030 (within sight now) there will be about twice as many Blacks as Whites of European-Christian descent in the world. By the 2040s, three times as many. By 2100 (not realistic), up to six times as many.

    As late as the 1980s, I think Whites of European-Christian descent outnumbered Blacks globally nearly to to one.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Survival of Fittest is a bitch.
    , @Erik Sieven
    the big trend of the 21 century is that of the three big racial groups East Asians will experience and huge drop in their share of the world population. The world is becoming less Asian.
  16. tyrone says:

    THINK of all the EINSTEINS! what wonderful glorious future we will all have.Sorry, I just can’t get over the whole Watson thing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Indeed. By 2100, with 4.5 billion blacks, there will be, what?, 200 million with IQs over the white mean.

    Maybe the 200 million black astrophysicists can build a bridge to Mars with the rest of them.
  17. TheJester says:

    The UN predicts that Nigeria will displace the USA with the world’s third-largest population by 2050 … that’s an estimated 398,507,704 people living in a country twice the size of California.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371

    At the same time, Nigeria is currently undergoing a famine. The UN, OXFAM, and other agencies and NCOs are canvassing in the West for food aid for Nigeria to apparently ensure that Nigeria’s population keeps its pace and place on the above timeline.

    http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/countries/africa/nigeria?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuc6C4LDR1AIVxI5-Ch0xBA5UEAAYAyAAEgJXVvD_BwE

    My prediction is that Nigeria and other sub-Saharan countries will never escape the international dole to feed their burgeoning populations. It’s international welfare writ large for “gibsmedat” societies … as Western countries in practice subsidize Africa as a “global nursery” providing replacement populations for Western countries struggling with the negative demographic impacts of feminism.

    In line with this, I do not believe that Nigeria will reach the numbers predicted above, which assumes that the millions of new Nigerians will all remain in Nigeria. A large percentage will displace themselves to Europe and perhaps the Americas to be closer to the Western welfare systems that sustain them. It’s already started.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Frau Katze
    Eventually, maybe not so far off, the West will run out of resources and won't be able to help.

    By that time we'll likely be hosting lots of Africans too. The whole thing will be a disaster. For us (or our descendants) too.
  18. Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is going to explode. The Democrat Party is the party of Black America. The looming African population explosion will unfold with dark horrors straight out of a Joseph Conrad book.

    The Democrat Party is the party of Muslims and mass immigration. The Democrat Party is a clear and present threat to the safety and security of the United States. The Democrat Party is a threat to the national security of the United States.

    White Core Americans(WCA) must fight to take control of the Republican Party. White Core American Patriots must dislodge the globalizer ruling class of the Republican Party. President Trump had the guts and brains to appeal to White Core Americans and Whites Without College Degrees(WWCDs).

    Africa’s population explosion will destroy the Democrat Party in the United States.

    Please tell me again why a woman such as Hillary Clinton, who professes to love Black Americans so much, does everything she can to remove herself from any and all contact with Black Americans in her personal life. Didn’t Hillary Clinton move to the mostly White town of Chappaqua, New York?

    The hypocrisy of leading Democrats regarding Black America is only covered up because the corporate media keeps silent on the matter. Patriots in the Republican Party must take control of the corporate media megaphone in the United States.

    Read More
  19. @lavoisier
    This is of course a major problem for Africa and for African people.

    It should not HAVE to be a problem for the responsible parts of the world that manage to control their population. But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic and the brain dead behavior patterns of the typical white liberal.

    The only legitimate state interest that the West should have regarding Africa is to insure that Africans stay in Africa. It is what many black people claim they want anyway--to be free of the racism of whitey.

    It is long past time that we treat African people like people--let them control their own destiny.

    Exactly.

    No offense, Steve, but this is only the “World’s Most Important Graph” to suicidially idiotic Western countries that don’t control their own borders and have lost their ability to think tribally. This graph is a curiousity to the Japanese, Koreans, Chinese and any other people who understand the concept and utility of a fence.

    What Africans choose to do in their own countries should be of no concern of mine. It’s why we have separate countries.

    Europe and the United States deserve their fate if they allow in millions of low-IQ, short time horizon, wholly incompatible Africans. A better example of Survival of Fittest you likely will never see. It’s not Survival of the Smartest or Survival of the Most Cultured or Survival of the Nicest. It’s fucking Survival of Fittest, survival of those best suited for that particular environment.

    Right now, Africans are the most suited for this environment. Ironically, it’s an environment created by whites, but that’s irrelevant for the time being. Whites created the environment that caused them to decline and Africans to succeed. Darwin must be laughing somewhere – in between his tears.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    Right now, Africans are the most suited for this environment. Ironically, it’s an environment created by whites, but that’s irrelevant for the time being. Whites created the environment that caused them to decline and Africans to succeed. Darwin must be laughing somewhere – in between his tears.

    Certainly PC has a lot to do with the inability to call a spade a spade. But white liberals have much to answer for too. A good example of this way of thinking is from Scandinavia, world's (epi)center of pathological altruism - Bjorn Lomborg, Danish gay vegetarian of Skeptical Environmentalist fame. Leave it to a childless Scandinavian to recommend what's best for the world.

    On the contrary, Lomborg claims that food is widespread, and humanity's daily intake of calories is increasing, and will continue to rise until hunger's eradication, thanks to technological improvements in agriculture. However, Lomborg notes that Africa in particular still produces too little sustenance, an effect he attributes to the continent's dismal economic and political systems. Concerning prosperity, Lomborg argues that wealth, as measured by per capita GDP, should not be the only judging criterion. He points to improvements in education, safety, leisure, and ever more widespread access to consumer goods as signs that prosperity is increasing in most parts of the world.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Skeptical_Environmentalist

    Sure, if you have never seen an IQ map of the world or a plot of GDP/capita vs IQ, you might come to some of the conclusions of Lomborg. His epicyclist view of the world results in a conclusion of "feed the animals". If we feed them, they will become wealthy, and suddenly become like whites or Asians and manage their environment better. The reality is that when we introduce Western medicine and disease prevention techniques and give them food, their population breeds out of control. It is not the lack of hallmarks of civilization such as economic or political systems (or indeed landing strips for aircraft to bring the cargo from their ancestors) that are the problem of SSAs, it is the SSAs themselves.

    On another note, a theme song for the topic:

    https://youtu.be/x6Oh4aaLCFM
  20. @Hail
    Roughly interpolating from that data:

    By 2030 (within sight now) there will be about twice as many Blacks as Whites of European-Christian descent in the world. By the 2040s, three times as many. By 2100 (not realistic), up to six times as many.

    As late as the 1980s, I think Whites of European-Christian descent outnumbered Blacks globally nearly to to one.

    Survival of Fittest is a bitch.

    Read More
  21. Tiny Duck says:

    Good

    Anything that has the potential to dilute the white male power structure is a positive

    Plus Black People are more in tune with nature, friendlier, more environmentally conscious, more tolerant, less selfish, better at sex, more logical, less Islamaphobic, harder working, less violent, and nicer

    This is great news. I hope a lot of them immigrate to America, Europe, and the Anglosphere so that these countries can become worth living in

    Read More
  22. Barnard says:
    @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    The Gates Foundation and other private charitable groups have been promoting family planning in Africa for years. The problem is that the African people just don’t seem to care for it. Most of them have never been fond of concepts like monogamy or anything else that would limit their own pleasure. The inability to convince Africans to change their personal behavior is the reason why there has been such limited success in reducing the rates HIV infection in Africa.

    Read More
  23. Barnard says:
    @PiltdownMan
    Even subtracting out the Sahara desert, Africa's potentially arable land covers almost 3 million square miles. The nearly 3.5 billion people of China, the Indian subcontinent and South-East area live in a smaller area (leaving out the empty and arid western expanse of China).

    In my lifetime, the population of Africa has risen fivefold, from 200 million to 1 billion.

    Although African land has never been farmed as intensively as China's or India's, it is somewhat conceivable that Africa will actually hit that 4 billion population number in the next eight decades.

    Good point. The Ivory Coast looks small on a map of Africa, but it is 124,000 square miles or about the size of New Mexico. There is a lot of arable land in Africa but it is almost certain the people of Africa won’t be able to probably manage it to absorb even a small amount of population growth.

    Read More
  24. reiner Tor says: • Website

    You must be a horrible racist for writing this. As to the ticking population bomb, it’s only there because conservatives are opposing abortion. And hey, look, a squirrel!

    Read More
  25. nebulafox says:
    @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    Madness. Another reason why I think Trump, far from being a 4D chessmaster, is a complete idiot.

    The Philippines suffers from the same problem. Anybody who has been there will understand why Duterte knows that the Church must be castrated and will heartily approve.

    Read More
  26. nebulafox says:
    @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    It is what it is: we’ll end up with an even greater refugee mess eventually if we don’t.

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000. The amount of money the West spends on that will be trivial compared to what we will spend on a whole lot of things if we let birthrates in Africa proceed like this…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pericles
    Surely you mean 'woman'?
    , @res

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000.
     
    It is amazing that some people don't realize the problem is all about the number of women reproducing. It only takes one promiscuous man to make up for essentially any number of sterilized men.
  27. @Hail
    Roughly interpolating from that data:

    By 2030 (within sight now) there will be about twice as many Blacks as Whites of European-Christian descent in the world. By the 2040s, three times as many. By 2100 (not realistic), up to six times as many.

    As late as the 1980s, I think Whites of European-Christian descent outnumbered Blacks globally nearly to to one.

    the big trend of the 21 century is that of the three big racial groups East Asians will experience and huge drop in their share of the world population. The world is becoming less Asian.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Yes, but Asia will remain Asian because they understand borders.

    Even if whites have more kids than Asians, Europe and the United States will not remain white.

    In 2100, you could walk the streets of Tokyo and the residents will look the same as today. No so for Paris, London, Berlin, NYC, Minneapolis, Portland, Toronto, etc.
    , @Hail
    The East Asian Malthus Trap was always a pretty major limiting factor for them, I think, but as you say they have now broken out of it, in a big way. What this will mean for the century ahead, I do not know.
  28. What percentage of Sub-Saharan Africa is Muslim?

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    From http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/sub-saharan-africa/

    While the absolute number of Christians in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double in size by 2050, the Christian share of the region’s population is expected to decline, dropping from 63% in 2010 to 59% in 2050. Meanwhile, the Muslim share is projected to increase from 30% to 35%.
     
  29. Philip says:
    @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    With regard to AIDS, the development of drugs that lead to lower transmission by infected persons, as well as vastly increased life-spans of those already affected, has led to the very significant fall in deaths from the virus. Also, some benefit of changed behaviours.

    Read More
    • Replies: @ben tillman

    With regard to AIDS, the development of drugs that lead to lower transmission by infected persons, as well as vastly increased life-spans of those already affected, has led to the very significant fall in deaths from the virus. Also, some benefit of changed behaviours.
     
    None of that applies to Africa.
  30. MBlanc46 says:
    @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    Very large with much desert and arid savannah.

    Read More
  31. MBlanc46 says:
    @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    Self-directed? Good luck with that.

    Read More
  32. Rob McX says:

    This massive cancer that is Africa’s population explosion is white people’s creation. Left to her own devices, Mother Nature would have capped the continent’s population at perhaps 300m. But white countries artificially raised the Malthusian ceiling with their financial aid and scientific advances. They could have left Africa alone, or they could have made sure financial and medical aid was coupled with birth control measures. They did neither.

    Read More
  33. @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    Did Africa become part of the US recently? I haven’t seen it on the fake news sites I go to.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Flip
    Everywhere is part of the US, and everyone in the world has the constitutional right to move to the US and get welfare. Just ask our judges.
    , @Frau Katze
    Everywhere is now part of the USA. Didn't you get the memo?
  34. @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    If they could do self-directed family planning, we wouldn’t be talking about them now.

    Read More
  35. AndrewR says:
    @lavoisier
    This is of course a major problem for Africa and for African people.

    It should not HAVE to be a problem for the responsible parts of the world that manage to control their population. But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic and the brain dead behavior patterns of the typical white liberal.

    The only legitimate state interest that the West should have regarding Africa is to insure that Africans stay in Africa. It is what many black people claim they want anyway--to be free of the racism of whitey.

    It is long past time that we treat African people like people--let them control their own destiny.

    The biodiversity of Africa is the entire world’s business. Stop with the childish isolationism.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Lavoisier is advocating prudent, or maybe (OMG) ruthless “isolationism” aka border controls. The principle is simple enough.

    But if this ever changing world
    In which we live in
    Makes you give in and cry …
     
    https://youtu.be/qKRh0rMixzM
    , @Pat Boyle
    I don't understand why you think biodiversity is the whole world's business? It sounds like you are winding up for a pitch to raise funds to send to Africa. I have no objection to anyone anywhere sending any kind of aid to Africans but I do object to taking tax money and sending it to Africa.

    There are two possible meaning for the "biodiversity of Africa". First it could be concern for endangered species. That seems legitimate to me. An overpopulated Africa will probably kill and eat a lot of rare species. Most would agree that should be avoided.

    The second meaning come from the fact that humans evolved in Africa. About thirty thousand years ago small groups split off from the main body and walked north. Those who went to Europe became Caucasians and those who went to East became Asians. Naturally the larger root population they stayed in Africa has greater genetic diversity than the small groups who left. This it seems to me is less significant than the argument to preserve endangered species.
  36. benjaminl says:
    @PiltdownMan
    Even subtracting out the Sahara desert, Africa's potentially arable land covers almost 3 million square miles. The nearly 3.5 billion people of China, the Indian subcontinent and South-East area live in a smaller area (leaving out the empty and arid western expanse of China).

    In my lifetime, the population of Africa has risen fivefold, from 200 million to 1 billion.

    Although African land has never been farmed as intensively as China's or India's, it is somewhat conceivable that Africa will actually hit that 4 billion population number in the next eight decades.

    Many goodthinkers think that large-scale corporate mechanized agribusiness could help boost the food output of Africa a lot.

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/05/collier-on-the.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/01/mozambique-small-farmers-fear-brazilian-style-agriculture

    But rereading this, I am reminded of Steve’s recent post about NAFTA.

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/a-classic-upside-down-nyt-article/

    Competing with modern corporate agriculture put a couple of million Mexican peons out of work and on the migration road. I wonder if something like that would happen in Africa. I guess we’ll find out.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Mechanized agriculture is a prelude to urbanization which will decrease the incentive to breed. It is inevitable except for the details. It can be easy or it can be brutal or mostly a combination of the two.

    In Africa, they have a tendency to do things the hard way.
  37. @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don’t, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed “family planning”?

    I’m sorry this is offensive to boomer-conservative sensibilities but yes we are supposed to pay for it. We have no obligation to teach them a lesson about Personal Responsibility ™. We have a self interest in minimizing the damage they can inflict on us and on our planet. As you say: otherwise they will destroy the continent and they will also destroy our continent too.

    Last year my mother was rear ended at low speed by a teenage girl. My mom asked for insurance info etc and the girl told my mom that she had no idea what to do in this situation and needed to call her own mom to help her. My mom recalled recalled with pride that she told that (entitled snowflake millennial idiot) girl that she needed to learn how to do these things herself and not rely on her parents.

    I told my mom she was totally nuts, and I think your attitude is also totally nuts. We need to do what will get the best result for us, not try to teach strangers a lesson about principles.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Frau Katze
    I'd hit the agree button but I've used it up for now.
  38. Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don’t think there’s any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa’s capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    This reply could also cover Piltdown man too: You are making an assumption that these people can work in an organized fashion, use and take care of mechanical equipment, and have an infrastructure that will let all of the population have access to this productive farmland. I know you've heard of Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia - the breadbasket of Africa. Leaving that aside, have you EVER read about an African country S. of the Sahara where the above happened?

    Oh, you have, during the cough, cough, colin, cough, -ization period. I see. Maybe the Chinese can run the shitshow over there better than the Europeans, as they don't have the Christian charity mindset - they may not care about helping the Africans be self-organized - they just want to get the resources out.

    I think the 4th option, after Steve's 3, is that the Chinese take it completely over, but it will require war. Let's stay out of it, and keep that all out of here.

    As for your Global Climate Disruption(TM) nonsense, you have no idea whether the climate of the world will change, and in what direction it might, as there are NO! WORKING! MODELS! OF! THE! EARTH'S! CLIMATE! Man, quit with that crap, you're better than that, Anatoly.
    , @Pericles
    I bet it won't be possible for the indigenous population to support 4 billion in Africa though. And before assuming the rest of the world will do it, one first has to ask "why?".
    , @Anonymous
    I don't know about that, but I do know that sub Saharans are quite the adept at murdering (white) commercial farmers and ruining the farms.
    , @The Z Blog
    That's the issue. Global warming will make the seas rise to the point where SSA is flooded along the eastern edge. The people, naturally, will flee west, causing the continent to tip over and billions of people to fall into the ocean.
    , @pyrrhus
    You must be aware that much of Africa is not tillable land, but desert or swamp, and that Africans are not only the least intelligent people on the planet, but many of them have little experience in agriculture at any scale. Finally, clean water is in short supply in much of Africa, and the governments are totally corrupt.
    So your geographic comparison is simply not relevant, and will never be....
    , @anon
    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.
  39. Travis says:

    a bad time for the increasing white death epidemic. More white Americans are dying than being born for the first time in modern history. Over the last 5 years 10,100,000 whites have been born, while 10,171,000 have died.

    The disparity — about 71,000 — was more than made up by a gain of 518,000 as a result of whites immigrating from Asian nations like Syria, Iraq and Iran. A majority of births in the United States are now to Hispanic, black and Asian mothers, is further evidence that white Americans will become a minority nationwide within the next 25 years. Will occur more rapidly if middle Easterners and North Africans start being counted as non-white.

    The White population in the U.S. is about 180 million today, similar to the 178 million in 1970. The Black population was 22 million in 1970 and is now 39 million. While the average white American is 42 years old the average non-white is 29

    America and Europe are just beginning to see their white populations collapsing. In 15 years most of the boomers will be dead or barely maintaining their bodies and minds. The Millennials will be in middle age, 30% of the White millennial females will be childless and 10% will have mixed race children.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Yep. It takes awhile for the effects of everything going on now (and over the past 30 years) to show up on the ground.

    And, of course, by the time whites starts to notice, it'll be too late.
  40. Romanian says: • Website

    I’ve shared that graph and the UN reports far and wide. I hope we wake up before it is too late.

    Off-topic, for Mr. Sailer:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/whats-wrong-with-the-democrats/528696/

    The strategy was simple. A demographic wave—long-building, still-building—would carry the party to victory, and liberalism to generational advantage. The wave was inevitable, unstoppable. It would not crest for many years, and in the meantime, there would be losses—losses in the midterms and in special elections; in statehouses and in districts and counties and municipalities outside major cities. Losses in places and elections where the white vote was especially strong.

    But the presidency could offset these losses. Every four years the wave would swell, receding again thereafter but coming back in the next presidential cycle, higher, higher. The strategy was simple. The presidency was everything.
    ……….
    If there’s any consolation to the realization of terrible fears, of worst-case scenarios springing to life, it’s that they are invigorating. Donald Trump’s presidency has rocked a long-complacent Democratic Party like nothing in recent history. Liberals, with their confidence that the trajectory of the country points in their direction, never had quite as much practice as conservatives in expressing their anger. That’s what makes the “Resistance”—the many marches, the seething hostility at town-hall meetings, the anti-Trump placards shouting at passersby from bungalow windows—a transformational break in the pattern.

    Leaderless and loud, the Resistance has become the motive power of the Democratic Party. Presidential hopefuls already strive to anticipate its wishes. Elected officials have restructured their political calculus to avoid getting on its wrong side. The feistiness and agitation of the moment are propelling the party to a new place.
    ….
    A year before his wife lost, Bill Clinton had a premonition of how things could go very wrong. He revealed his foreboding—perhaps fittingly—at fund-raising events. He would hint at what he considered his wife’s glaring vulnerability: the roiling discontent of the white working class. The travails of the group—44 percent of eligible voters—preoccupied him. He could recite one grim statistic after another. Even at this early date in the campaign, he knew that their cultural alienation might place them beyond the reach of a Democrat. And while most pundits at that point still considered Trump the second coming of Herman Cain, a circus act rather than a serious candidate, Clinton feared Trump’s ability to channel white-working-class rage. “He’s a master brander and he[’s] sensing sort of the emotional landscape of people he’s selling to,” Clinton told donors gathered in Atlanta in October 2015.
    ….
    Of course, Hillary Clinton would have preferred to avoid an argument about the primacy of race versus class. But African American voters provided her the surest path to primary victory. They gravitated to her, in no small measure out of loyalty to Obama. Where Clinton posed as the president’s anointed successor, Sanders questioned Obama’s legacy and called for revolutionary change. He never dedicated himself to making meaningful inroads with African American or Latino voters, and so Clinton doubled down. After she lost New Hampshire in February, she began traveling with the grieving mothers of Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, and other African American casualties of violence. Criminal-justice issues became an elevated feature of her standard pitch.

    I like how they treat getting their own Tea Party, with added vibrancy and violence, as a good thing when they excoriated the Republicans for pandering to the original.

    The makings of a Democratic majority are real. Demographic advantages will continue to accrue to the left. The party needs only to add to its coalition on the margins and in the right patches on the map. Doing that does not require the abandonment of any moral principles; persuasion is a different category of political activity from pandering.

    Read More
  41. Flip says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Did Africa become part of the US recently? I haven't seen it on the fake news sites I go to.

    Everywhere is part of the US, and everyone in the world has the constitutional right to move to the US and get welfare. Just ask our judges.

    Read More
  42. MW says:
    @Daniel H
    Or option d) they will slaughter each other in the tens, hundreds of millions. A preview of which we saw in Rwanda 20 years ago.

    And yet, the population of Rwanda is at a record high, and growing rapidly. The slaughter was simply a ten-year hiatus in the ongoing trend.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/rwanda-population/

    Somalia, too.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/somalia-population/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Hudson Bay Company - wild lynx pelts. Historical records of.


    Remember studying this years ago.
  43. TG says:

    But this is an old story. Yes, Virginia, Malthus was right. If people keep trying to have six kids a pop when they could maybe support two or three, they will be poor – and eventually the population WILL stop growing. One way or the other.

    Look at Syria. The government deliberately created a population explosion, the population doubling every 18 years or so. A simple projection would have the population of Syria reaching about 700 million by the year 2100.

    But that didn’t happen, did it? Instead the last of the aquifers had drained, and society fell apart into chaos and misery. And the population stopped doubling…

    http://globuspallidusxi.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-real-story-on-syria-forced.html

    Once a population reaches a certain size, exponential growth is so powerful that the population will NOT double every 20 years or os. The issue is whether that will happen the easy way, or the hard way.

    Looks like the Africans have chosen the hard way. I predict that there will NOT be four billion+ Africans by 2100. I do predict, however, that however many Africans there may be in the year 2100, they will not be living happy lives.

    But I blame not so much the Africans, as our own economists and journalists, who for the last 50 years have demanded that more people are always better and that if a person who could support two kids has seven, that this is great and will grow the economy and it will all be good. And anyone saying different is racist. Yeah, right.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    When will the Amish become a demographic problem for the Democrats?
    , @Amasius
    Don't underestimate White people's determination to feed these people. They're more determined to feed Africans than my mom is to feed every cat in the neighborhood. White civilization would have to collapse before the food shipments and medical intervention stopped.

    As long as there are a few million Whites organized somewhere, the manna will continue to fall. Like that new German who has 4 wives and 23 children and receives 390,000 dollars in benefits a year: Allah provided teeth, the dhimmi will provide bread.
  44. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    OT but the Cenus Bureau is reporting that only 5000 white babies were born between 2015 and 2016, which seems like complete bullshit. Steve I thought you’d appreciate the caption in the photo to this article.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/census-us-growing-older-more-racially-diverse-040317342–politics.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Kabala
    It doesn't mean that only 5,000 white babies were born - the white population only increased by 5,000. So every white baby was cancelled out by a white death, except for 5,000.
  45. psmith says:
    @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    “Teach men not to rape!11!”

    Read More
  46. @Romanian
    I've shared that graph and the UN reports far and wide. I hope we wake up before it is too late.

    Off-topic, for Mr. Sailer:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/whats-wrong-with-the-democrats/528696/


    The strategy was simple. A demographic wave—long-building, still-building—would carry the party to victory, and liberalism to generational advantage. The wave was inevitable, unstoppable. It would not crest for many years, and in the meantime, there would be losses—losses in the midterms and in special elections; in statehouses and in districts and counties and municipalities outside major cities. Losses in places and elections where the white vote was especially strong.

    But the presidency could offset these losses. Every four years the wave would swell, receding again thereafter but coming back in the next presidential cycle, higher, higher. The strategy was simple. The presidency was everything.
    ..........
    If there’s any consolation to the realization of terrible fears, of worst-case scenarios springing to life, it’s that they are invigorating. Donald Trump’s presidency has rocked a long-complacent Democratic Party like nothing in recent history. Liberals, with their confidence that the trajectory of the country points in their direction, never had quite as much practice as conservatives in expressing their anger. That’s what makes the “Resistance”—the many marches, the seething hostility at town-hall meetings, the anti-Trump placards shouting at passersby from bungalow windows—a transformational break in the pattern.

    Leaderless and loud, the Resistance has become the motive power of the Democratic Party. Presidential hopefuls already strive to anticipate its wishes. Elected officials have restructured their political calculus to avoid getting on its wrong side. The feistiness and agitation of the moment are propelling the party to a new place.
    ....
    A year before his wife lost, Bill Clinton had a premonition of how things could go very wrong. He revealed his foreboding—perhaps fittingly—at fund-raising events. He would hint at what he considered his wife’s glaring vulnerability: the roiling discontent of the white working class. The travails of the group—44 percent of eligible voters—preoccupied him. He could recite one grim statistic after another. Even at this early date in the campaign, he knew that their cultural alienation might place them beyond the reach of a Democrat. And while most pundits at that point still considered Trump the second coming of Herman Cain, a circus act rather than a serious candidate, Clinton feared Trump’s ability to channel white-working-class rage. “He’s a master brander and he[’s] sensing sort of the emotional landscape of people he’s selling to,” Clinton told donors gathered in Atlanta in October 2015.
    ....
    Of course, Hillary Clinton would have preferred to avoid an argument about the primacy of race versus class. But African American voters provided her the surest path to primary victory. They gravitated to her, in no small measure out of loyalty to Obama. Where Clinton posed as the president’s anointed successor, Sanders questioned Obama’s legacy and called for revolutionary change. He never dedicated himself to making meaningful inroads with African American or Latino voters, and so Clinton doubled down. After she lost New Hampshire in February, she began traveling with the grieving mothers of Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, and other African American casualties of violence. Criminal-justice issues became an elevated feature of her standard pitch.
     

    I like how they treat getting their own Tea Party, with added vibrancy and violence, as a good thing when they excoriated the Republicans for pandering to the original.

    The makings of a Democratic majority are real. Demographic advantages will continue to accrue to the left. The party needs only to add to its coalition on the margins and in the right patches on the map. Doing that does not require the abandonment of any moral principles; persuasion is a different category of political activity from pandering.
     

    More zombies need to vote for the Democrats.

    Read More
  47. @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population?

    It was supposed to do more than decimate, maybe wipe out half of them, per these alarmists. OK, sorry, I’m a stickler – “decimate” means kill 1 in 10; people don’t use it right, but there’s no way to change the word’s meaning without changing all the Greek (or Latin) number-roots.

    As to your overall point, I also think there is loads of false alarmism to attract more money. Charity executives gotta’ eat too, and pretty well! (and they need natives for sex and all). On the AIDS thing, the big push was to keep the narrative going, that this was not just a gay thing – we ALL should be worried. True, you should worry, especially if you note in yourself that you have been watching a lot of musicals lately on the Telly, or Gladiator movies. In those cases, start to worry.

    For the rest of us, who are not intravenous drug users to boot, it was never a big risk. I don’t know anyone personally who’s ever had AIDS, so.. you know.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JohnnyGeo

    and they need natives for sex and all
     
    For AIDS chairities, hopefully not the same as their client base!
    , @TWS
    I knew/know many people who've got HIV/AIDS. But I was a cop so my experience is atypical. The customers for AIDS cocktails and police attention tend to overlap pretty well.
    , @Old fogey
    My point exactly - we are continually being told that we should worry about all sorts of things that we need not be worried about at all. AIDS is extremely difficult to transmit heterosexually and yet everyone was told this disease would take over the world.

    Another example, we now know that animal fats - think bacon and butter - are far healthier than the vegetable oils that we were told just a few years ago were mandatory in a "healthy" diet and that saturated fat would destroy us. All agit prop.
  48. @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    Excellent point. We were led to believe that AIDS was going to cause the population of Africa to shrink. Often AIDS in Africa was portrayed as a modern day version of the medieval plague. Now we don’t hear anything about that. Back then, if you would have said that Africa was going to have explosive population growth, the “experts” would have called you crazy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    What about the famine? Recall in 1984, Ethiopia was starving and the rock stars in the US and UK came together to make their respective relief songs.

    If I recall Ethiopia had around 30 million people back then. It's off the charts now.

    It looks like AIDS and famine have been little more than speed bumps.
  49. eD says:
    @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    (on the slightly off topic comment #1)

    There is “the scientists are all wrong on AIDS’ dissident school of thought, similar to the ones on global warning and vaccines. This one actually seems better grounded, at least the scientists supporting it are more impressive, and it does seem the announcement that a virus was causing all those deaths of gay people was something rolled out by Reagan’s HHS in the 1980s in response to pressure from gay activists to just do something, anything, before the theory was really vetted.

    The dissident argument is that the fuss in the 1980s was about people dying young from a variety of unrelated causes, linked by unhealthy lifestyles, and was not part of a “syndrome”, and that the treatment drugs initially caused more deaths, until the protocols were changed.

    However, you can agree with the mainstream ÄIDS is caused by HIV”argument and still think the accounts and predictions of massive numbers of people dying of heterosexually transmitted AIDS in Africa has been BS. First, Africa is the only continent in the world where heterosexual transmission has been a big mode of spread for HIV and AIDS, everywhere else its almost exclusively homosexual transmission or IV. Sometimes differences in African sexual practices are wheeled out to explain the discrepancy. Second, many of the areas supposedly hardest hit by AIDS have not exactly been doing much HIV testing and don’t really have the administrative structure to do this, or to maintain reliable health statistics either. Third, there is Africa’s explosive population growth, which historically has never happened in areas in the grip of deadly epidemics. So it really does seem that the whole ÄIDS epidemic in Africa”really was something concocted to get more NGOs involved and more western money.

    Incidentally one former President of South Africa said as much, and that was one of the reasons for his removal before the end of his term.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Old fogey
    Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I agree wholeheartedly with your understanding of the situation with respect to Africa. Before I retired I worked for many years in the health section of a foundation that was interested in global health issues and which received many requests for funding of research proposals concerning AIDS in Africa.

    Basically the physicians doing such research described every patient he or she treated as an AIDS victim because this was where the money was. They did not test for the AIDS virus, they based their diagnosis solely on symptoms and since we were told the virus destroyed the immune system, they argued that the diseases suffered by their patients were caused by that particular virus.

    The mind boggles at the amount of money that has been spent on AIDS. After PEPFAR was put into practice I checked the figures and far more money was spent on AIDS by the U.S. government than the major ailments that killed Americans. The gay lobby was enormously successful in its political efforts.
  50. @TG
    But this is an old story. Yes, Virginia, Malthus was right. If people keep trying to have six kids a pop when they could maybe support two or three, they will be poor - and eventually the population WILL stop growing. One way or the other.

    Look at Syria. The government deliberately created a population explosion, the population doubling every 18 years or so. A simple projection would have the population of Syria reaching about 700 million by the year 2100.

    But that didn't happen, did it? Instead the last of the aquifers had drained, and society fell apart into chaos and misery. And the population stopped doubling...

    http://globuspallidusxi.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-real-story-on-syria-forced.html

    Once a population reaches a certain size, exponential growth is so powerful that the population will NOT double every 20 years or os. The issue is whether that will happen the easy way, or the hard way.

    Looks like the Africans have chosen the hard way. I predict that there will NOT be four billion+ Africans by 2100. I do predict, however, that however many Africans there may be in the year 2100, they will not be living happy lives.

    But I blame not so much the Africans, as our own economists and journalists, who for the last 50 years have demanded that more people are always better and that if a person who could support two kids has seven, that this is great and will grow the economy and it will all be good. And anyone saying different is racist. Yeah, right.

    When will the Amish become a demographic problem for the Democrats?

    Read More
    • Replies: @MW
    The Amish tend not to vote. But suppose they start voting at rates comparable to the general population, and reliably go Republican. With a population of about 300,000 that doubles every 20 years, that gets you to 10 million Amish a hundred years from now. The Amish vote is not going to be significant outside of Pennsylvania / Ohio / Indiana for a very long time, and may never be significant anywhere.

    https://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/statistics/population-trends-2011-2016/

  51. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Of course, Steve option number three is the only and – inevitable outcome.
    We’re already seeing the beginning of it with the so-called ‘Mediterranean refugee crisis’.

    The Economist magazine is positively ga ga about it.

    The EU loves it so much that it metes out the direst punishments to any ‘nation state’ which entertains the merest shadow of doubt about it.

    Read More
  52. @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    This reply could also cover Piltdown man too: You are making an assumption that these people can work in an organized fashion, use and take care of mechanical equipment, and have an infrastructure that will let all of the population have access to this productive farmland. I know you’ve heard of Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia – the breadbasket of Africa. Leaving that aside, have you EVER read about an African country S. of the Sahara where the above happened?

    Oh, you have, during the cough, cough, colin, cough, -ization period. I see. Maybe the Chinese can run the shitshow over there better than the Europeans, as they don’t have the Christian charity mindset – they may not care about helping the Africans be self-organized – they just want to get the resources out.

    I think the 4th option, after Steve’s 3, is that the Chinese take it completely over, but it will require war. Let’s stay out of it, and keep that all out of here.

    As for your Global Climate Disruption(TM) nonsense, you have no idea whether the climate of the world will change, and in what direction it might, as there are NO! WORKING! MODELS! OF! THE! EARTH’S! CLIMATE! Man, quit with that crap, you’re better than that, Anatoly.

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  53. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @MW
    And yet, the population of Rwanda is at a record high, and growing rapidly. The slaughter was simply a ten-year hiatus in the ongoing trend.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/rwanda-population/

    Somalia, too.

    http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/somalia-population/

    Hudson Bay Company – wild lynx pelts. Historical records of.

    Remember studying this years ago.

    Read More
  54. Pericles says:
    @nebulafox
    It is what it is: we'll end up with an even greater refugee mess eventually if we don't.

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000. The amount of money the West spends on that will be trivial compared to what we will spend on a whole lot of things if we let birthrates in Africa proceed like this...

    Surely you mean ‘woman’?

    Read More
    • Replies: @nebulafox
    I wish I could say I did. *Face slap*.

    The job hunt is clearly getting to me...
  55. Pericles says:

    Meanwhile, OMG global warming of half a degree in a hundred years! We’re all gonna diiiiieeeeeee!

    Read More
  56. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Federalist
    Excellent point. We were led to believe that AIDS was going to cause the population of Africa to shrink. Often AIDS in Africa was portrayed as a modern day version of the medieval plague. Now we don't hear anything about that. Back then, if you would have said that Africa was going to have explosive population growth, the "experts" would have called you crazy.

    What about the famine? Recall in 1984, Ethiopia was starving and the rock stars in the US and UK came together to make their respective relief songs.

    If I recall Ethiopia had around 30 million people back then. It’s off the charts now.

    It looks like AIDS and famine have been little more than speed bumps.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Frau Katze
    Just got this in a newsletter: A Preventable Tragedy Millions Around The World Are Still Threatened with Starvation

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-preventable-tragedy-millions-are-still-threatened-with-starvation-a-1152963.html#ref=nl-international

    The article blames global warming, despite their early reference to a "mother of seven".
  57. Pericles says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    I bet it won’t be possible for the indigenous population to support 4 billion in Africa though. And before assuming the rest of the world will do it, one first has to ask “why?”.

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  58. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    I don’t know about that, but I do know that sub Saharans are quite the adept at murdering (white) commercial farmers and ruining the farms.

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  59. Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession. Highbrow novelist Jonathan Franzen and lowbrow thriller writer Dan Brown both followed up their big successes of the last decade with novels in which the importance of population control was a key point. I don’t know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried. The globalist elite (that people at this site usually despise) loves population control.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    They especially want to control the number of deplorable white people.
    , @Travis
    because the media once promoted this issue , kind of like the current scare treatment concerning Global Warming. All the major media outlets would routinely have alarming stories about the threats to humanity caused by overpopulation. The author of the Population Bomb was often on TV warning about the impending famines and global catastrophes caused by the growing population.. No one was more influential — or more terrifying, some would say- than Paul Ehrlich a Stanford University biologist. His book sole millions of copies. He was a guest on the tonight show in 1977 and 1980 spewing his warnings about over-population.

    Things started changing in the 90s, as the media started to focus on the Global warming hoax.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/01/us/the-unrealized-horrors-of-population-explosion.html?_r=0
    Now the media mocks Paul Ehrlich, others who once believed the rising population would doom the plant have changed their minds.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession.
    ...
    I don’t know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried.

     

    Zero population growth has been achieved by White Americans, White Europeans, and the Japanese. Rather than be happy about it, the people you mentioned all in unison constantly harp about the problems this causes and they all constantly demand for more immigration to solve them.

    They all constanly harp about "worker shortages" and demand more immigration.
    They complain about the lack of young people to fund Social Security programs and demand more immigration.

    You mentioned Bloomberg. Here is an article on bloomberg.com about Japan:
    Japan Needs More People
    You might read this article and think that population control is forgotten.
  60. res says:
    @nebulafox
    It is what it is: we'll end up with an even greater refugee mess eventually if we don't.

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000. The amount of money the West spends on that will be trivial compared to what we will spend on a whole lot of things if we let birthrates in Africa proceed like this...

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000.

    It is amazing that some people don’t realize the problem is all about the number of women reproducing. It only takes one promiscuous man to make up for essentially any number of sterilized men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DWB
    People no longer study biology.

    Or. watch "Dr Stangelove", which also would reveal this reality.
    , @Anon 2
    You don't have to read Heartiste to know that
    nothing on earth is as effective at reducing birthrates
    as turning women into feminists - feminazis would
    be even better. Just do this to African women
    (I'm sure Bill Gates would be more than happy to
    open his wallet for this noble cause), sit back, and
    watch the fertility rates fall like manna from heaven.
    Sisterhood Is Powerful!

    P.S. There was a story a few months ago to the effect
    that feeding women a steady TV diet of Latin-American
    telenovelas can also play its part. Women will see that
    it's possible for families to only have 2-3 children and
    still be happy. For African women that would be
    a revolutionary idea
  61. res says:
    @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    It would be interesting to see population projections for Africa assuming a life expectancy that had not been reduced ~20 years (in some cohorts) by AIDS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_in_Africa
    Any ideas what kind of assumptions the UN numbers make about life expectancy? Are they assuming increasing penetration of effective AIDS treatment in Africa?

    Read More
  62. res says:
    @Thucydides
    What percentage of Sub-Saharan Africa is Muslim?

    From http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/sub-saharan-africa/

    While the absolute number of Christians in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double in size by 2050, the Christian share of the region’s population is expected to decline, dropping from 63% in 2010 to 59% in 2050. Meanwhile, the Muslim share is projected to increase from 30% to 35%.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Practical Conservative
    Yeah, African Christians have fewer children than African Muslims, frequently as few as white Western Christians (2-4).

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates. The Boers were having 10-15 kids per woman when they were at war.

    The Muslim/Christian issue will have to be decisively settled one way or another, because it's causing a lot of the conflict that drives high birthrates.
  63. A lot of people assume that other African countries are going to be so generous as to allow excess Nigerians and Ethiopians (for example) to settle into their more sparsely populated countries.

    Africa’s population will slow down the old fashioned way: war, famine, and disease. Now that Africans see moving to Europe as a way out of their dismal lives, there’s going to be a lot more makeshift boats sailing to Italy these next few decades.

    Read More
  64. Boere Lul says:

    I open the newspaper today and like every other day as far back as I can remember there is an ad for a charity feeding starving children in Africa. They can’t feed themselves now without help, how are they going to feed their projected numbers in 2100?
    Not only can they not feed themselves now, they are actively kicking out the only people that have any hope of feeding them; white farmers. Zimbabwe is the leader in this but South Africa is not far behind.
    They may immigrate to Europe and other colder countries where farming is even more difficult. The risk then is not only starvation, but exposure to the cold. When the choice comes to charity or survival, survival will win out.

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  65. @Anon
    OT but the Cenus Bureau is reporting that only 5000 white babies were born between 2015 and 2016, which seems like complete bullshit. Steve I thought you'd appreciate the caption in the photo to this article.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/census-us-growing-older-more-racially-diverse-040317342--politics.html

    It doesn’t mean that only 5,000 white babies were born – the white population only increased by 5,000. So every white baby was cancelled out by a white death, except for 5,000.

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  66. DWB says: • Website

    Briefly scanned the report. Given the noise recently from Mr Brett Stevens and his suggestion that useless, native stock Americans be deported to make way for much more productive immigrants, the single most alarming/risible comment in the document (IMHO) is this:

    Although international migration at or around current levels will be insufficient to compensate fully for the expected loss of population tied to low levels of fertility, especially in the European region, the movement of people between countries can help attenuate some of the adverse consequences of population ageing.

    Out of control fertility and the flow of “migrants” is pitches as a silver lining for Europe.

    Tell me again that in the sensibilities of these apparatchiks, there is not at least a whiff of replacing one people with another?

    Read More
  67. DWB says: • Website
    @res

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000.
     
    It is amazing that some people don't realize the problem is all about the number of women reproducing. It only takes one promiscuous man to make up for essentially any number of sterilized men.

    People no longer study biology.

    Or. watch “Dr Stangelove”, which also would reveal this reality.

    Read More
  68. @James Kabala
    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession. Highbrow novelist Jonathan Franzen and lowbrow thriller writer Dan Brown both followed up their big successes of the last decade with novels in which the importance of population control was a key point. I don't know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried. The globalist elite (that people at this site usually despise) loves population control.

    They especially want to control the number of deplorable white people.

    Read More
  69. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @benjaminl
    Many goodthinkers think that large-scale corporate mechanized agribusiness could help boost the food output of Africa a lot.

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/05/collier-on-the.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/01/mozambique-small-farmers-fear-brazilian-style-agriculture

    But rereading this, I am reminded of Steve's recent post about NAFTA.

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/a-classic-upside-down-nyt-article/

    Competing with modern corporate agriculture put a couple of million Mexican peons out of work and on the migration road. I wonder if something like that would happen in Africa. I guess we'll find out.

    Mechanized agriculture is a prelude to urbanization which will decrease the incentive to breed. It is inevitable except for the details. It can be easy or it can be brutal or mostly a combination of the two.

    In Africa, they have a tendency to do things the hard way.

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  70. Dr. W says:

    This population growth is *never going to happen.* The population pressure (and lack of arable land) will lead to famine, disease, and war far before these population levels are reached. (No exponential curve continues forever before the limit to growth is reached, and an ensuing collapse causes a regression to sustainability.)

    The rest of the world will try to help until resources are pulled to thin. Eventually, as Africa begins to consume itself in increasing intra-continental conflict, there will be a global blockade of the Mediterranean, orchestrated through merciless force against refugee craft. (There will be inadequate resources in Africa for any large-scale human trafficking through the Atlantic, so that escape route will be a non-issue, and we can count on Egypt and Saudi Arabia to remain very strong on the NE frontier. There may be some attempts to flee to India but, India will have its own problems.)

    The only question is whether this will happen before Europe and America overloads their life rafts before or after Africa undergoes its titanic cataclysm, that is, whether or not Europe and America are destroyed as well.

    Read More
    • Replies: @alan2102
    "This population growth is *never going to happen.* The population pressure (and lack of arable land) will lead to famine, disease, and war..."

    Lack of arable land?!

    http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/10/24/africa-can-feed-itself-earn-billions-avoid-food-crises-unblocking-regional-food-trade
    "huge tracts of fertile land, around 400 million hectares, remain uncultivated"

    400 million hectares = ~1 BILLION acres
  71. Travis says:
    @James Kabala
    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession. Highbrow novelist Jonathan Franzen and lowbrow thriller writer Dan Brown both followed up their big successes of the last decade with novels in which the importance of population control was a key point. I don't know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried. The globalist elite (that people at this site usually despise) loves population control.

    because the media once promoted this issue , kind of like the current scare treatment concerning Global Warming. All the major media outlets would routinely have alarming stories about the threats to humanity caused by overpopulation. The author of the Population Bomb was often on TV warning about the impending famines and global catastrophes caused by the growing population.. No one was more influential — or more terrifying, some would say- than Paul Ehrlich a Stanford University biologist. His book sole millions of copies. He was a guest on the tonight show in 1977 and 1980 spewing his warnings about over-population.

    Things started changing in the 90s, as the media started to focus on the Global warming hoax.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/01/us/the-unrealized-horrors-of-population-explosion.html?_r=0

    Now the media mocks Paul Ehrlich, others who once believed the rising population would doom the plant have changed their minds.

    Read More
  72. @Erik Sieven
    the big trend of the 21 century is that of the three big racial groups East Asians will experience and huge drop in their share of the world population. The world is becoming less Asian.

    Yes, but Asia will remain Asian because they understand borders.

    Even if whites have more kids than Asians, Europe and the United States will not remain white.

    In 2100, you could walk the streets of Tokyo and the residents will look the same as today. No so for Paris, London, Berlin, NYC, Minneapolis, Portland, Toronto, etc.

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  73. @Travis
    a bad time for the increasing white death epidemic. More white Americans are dying than being born for the first time in modern history. Over the last 5 years 10,100,000 whites have been born, while 10,171,000 have died.

    The disparity — about 71,000 — was more than made up by a gain of 518,000 as a result of whites immigrating from Asian nations like Syria, Iraq and Iran. A majority of births in the United States are now to Hispanic, black and Asian mothers, is further evidence that white Americans will become a minority nationwide within the next 25 years. Will occur more rapidly if middle Easterners and North Africans start being counted as non-white.

    The White population in the U.S. is about 180 million today, similar to the 178 million in 1970. The Black population was 22 million in 1970 and is now 39 million. While the average white American is 42 years old the average non-white is 29

    America and Europe are just beginning to see their white populations collapsing. In 15 years most of the boomers will be dead or barely maintaining their bodies and minds. The Millennials will be in middle age, 30% of the White millennial females will be childless and 10% will have mixed race children.

    Yep. It takes awhile for the effects of everything going on now (and over the past 30 years) to show up on the ground.

    And, of course, by the time whites starts to notice, it’ll be too late.

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  74. MW says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    When will the Amish become a demographic problem for the Democrats?

    The Amish tend not to vote. But suppose they start voting at rates comparable to the general population, and reliably go Republican. With a population of about 300,000 that doubles every 20 years, that gets you to 10 million Amish a hundred years from now. The Amish vote is not going to be significant outside of Pennsylvania / Ohio / Indiana for a very long time, and may never be significant anywhere.

    https://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/statistics/population-trends-2011-2016/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Frau Katze
    They're extremely inbred and have high rates of hideous hereditary diseases. Many kids killed by these conditions.

    I don't see how they could possibly become a significant population unless 1) they started to accept converts or 2) they try to get the rates of disease down with genetic testing.

    No sign of either happening.
  75. JohnnyGeo says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population?
     
    It was supposed to do more than decimate, maybe wipe out half of them, per these alarmists. OK, sorry, I'm a stickler - "decimate" means kill 1 in 10; people don't use it right, but there's no way to change the word's meaning without changing all the Greek (or Latin) number-roots.

    As to your overall point, I also think there is loads of false alarmism to attract more money. Charity executives gotta' eat too, and pretty well! (and they need natives for sex and all). On the AIDS thing, the big push was to keep the narrative going, that this was not just a gay thing - we ALL should be worried. True, you should worry, especially if you note in yourself that you have been watching a lot of musicals lately on the Telly, or Gladiator movies. In those cases, start to worry.

    For the rest of us, who are not intravenous drug users to boot, it was never a big risk. I don't know anyone personally who's ever had AIDS, so.. you know.

    and they need natives for sex and all

    For AIDS chairities, hopefully not the same as their client base!

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  76. @res
    From http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/sub-saharan-africa/

    While the absolute number of Christians in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double in size by 2050, the Christian share of the region’s population is expected to decline, dropping from 63% in 2010 to 59% in 2050. Meanwhile, the Muslim share is projected to increase from 30% to 35%.
     

    Yeah, African Christians have fewer children than African Muslims, frequently as few as white Western Christians (2-4).

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates. The Boers were having 10-15 kids per woman when they were at war.

    The Muslim/Christian issue will have to be decisively settled one way or another, because it’s causing a lot of the conflict that drives high birthrates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hail

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates.
     
    This seems counter-intuitive, but we do know that the U.S. Baby Boom began (technically, in terms of a rise in births above any then-recent year) as early as 1941. The biggest gains came in the late 1940s and 1950s, of course, but the trendline points up from 1941 already.

    USA Total Fertility Rate
    2.19: 1935-1940 (range: 2.15 to 2.23)
    2.33: 1941
    2.55: 1942
    2.64: 1943
    2.49: 1944
    2.42: 1945
    2.86: 1946
    3.18: 1947
    3.03: 1948
    3.04: 1949
    3.45: 1950s
    1.94: 1970s
    , @Erik Sieven
    Subsahara African Christians still have much more children than for example south Asian (except Afghanistan) Muslims. This is not about religion I think.
  77. The Z Blog says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    That’s the issue. Global warming will make the seas rise to the point where SSA is flooded along the eastern edge. The people, naturally, will flee west, causing the continent to tip over and billions of people to fall into the ocean.

    Read More
    • LOL: EriK
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    That’s the issue. Global warming will make the seas rise to the point where SSA is flooded along the eastern edge. The people, naturally, will flee west, causing the continent to tip over and billions of people to fall into the ocean.
     
    Indeed, between Hank Johnson, US Congress, D, (honorary)PhD-Geology, spec.-Continental Drift, and some of these other guys we got working the models, it's important we get a global plan together now. Let's me and you head back to Paris and apologize.
  78. The UN will call them “climate refugees” and Europe will pay for them to resettle in what was once Germany.

    That is, until Europe turns Islamic, whence the poor negro will once again be enslaved.

    Read More
  79. You either finally impose a rigorous Cricket Testing – or you just continue to listen to theEcho Chambering Cosmopoliethnocentrics , and die as a nation:

    Read More
  80. Oh noes! My elephants, lions, cheetahs, hippos, leopards and rhinos! Tarzan, KILL!

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  81. pyrrhus says:

    Apparently, the UN is full of Dr. Pangloss clones…Starvation will hit, either Africa or any Western countries foolish enough to bail out the Africans, long before Africa’s population hits these ridiculous numbers….Note–not one African country can feed itself now…

    Read More
  82. Neoconned says:
    @TTSSYF
    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don't, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed "family planning"?

    Its one of those cases where its cheaper to pay for the condoms, pills, or i guess chemicals in the water supplies now than pay for the prison, welfare, immigration, health care costs etc later.

    I was chatting ten minutes ago here in downtown San Antonio with these PETA idiots. I was explaining how zoos were preferable to all the big game going extinct from deforestation, habitat loss, and worse the pelt and bush meat industries.

    The goofy white girl literally said “whatever” & walked away.

    Whiskeys right, they got jungle fever.

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  83. Hail says: • Website
    @Erik Sieven
    the big trend of the 21 century is that of the three big racial groups East Asians will experience and huge drop in their share of the world population. The world is becoming less Asian.

    The East Asian Malthus Trap was always a pretty major limiting factor for them, I think, but as you say they have now broken out of it, in a big way. What this will mean for the century ahead, I do not know.

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  84. Neoconned says:
    @Cheetah
    Religious right is still opposing contraception. That buffoon Trump had blocked funds for family planning in Africa.

    Agreed a tiny investment now in contraception and other birth control (chemicals in the water supplies?) Will do a “stitch in time” dividend tjat will pay multiples later….

    Think of the reduced counterterrorism, war spending, refugee mitigation, etc expenditures. That doesnt even touch the saved costs from counterterrorism, prison costs, LE costs, welfare expenses, etc

    Investing in contraception now is a bargain…..

    Read More
    • Replies: @Old fogey
    I never kept any of the numbers but I know for a fact that while I was reading the documentation in this field (1980-2005) the largest buyer and supplier of condoms in the world was USAID.

    Condoms were given out freely all over Africa at the same time that the Feminists were calling for male birth control to be developed and castigating all the American drug companies for not coming up with a male "pill."

    The U.S. has been in the contraceptive game for a very long time. What it has tried to avoid - at least while Republicans were somewhat in control - was supporting abortion as a means of birth control. Whenever you hear the term "women's health issues," by the way, that means making abortion free and legal for females of all ages.
  85. Amasius says:
    @TG
    But this is an old story. Yes, Virginia, Malthus was right. If people keep trying to have six kids a pop when they could maybe support two or three, they will be poor - and eventually the population WILL stop growing. One way or the other.

    Look at Syria. The government deliberately created a population explosion, the population doubling every 18 years or so. A simple projection would have the population of Syria reaching about 700 million by the year 2100.

    But that didn't happen, did it? Instead the last of the aquifers had drained, and society fell apart into chaos and misery. And the population stopped doubling...

    http://globuspallidusxi.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-real-story-on-syria-forced.html

    Once a population reaches a certain size, exponential growth is so powerful that the population will NOT double every 20 years or os. The issue is whether that will happen the easy way, or the hard way.

    Looks like the Africans have chosen the hard way. I predict that there will NOT be four billion+ Africans by 2100. I do predict, however, that however many Africans there may be in the year 2100, they will not be living happy lives.

    But I blame not so much the Africans, as our own economists and journalists, who for the last 50 years have demanded that more people are always better and that if a person who could support two kids has seven, that this is great and will grow the economy and it will all be good. And anyone saying different is racist. Yeah, right.

    Don’t underestimate White people’s determination to feed these people. They’re more determined to feed Africans than my mom is to feed every cat in the neighborhood. White civilization would have to collapse before the food shipments and medical intervention stopped.

    As long as there are a few million Whites organized somewhere, the manna will continue to fall. Like that new German who has 4 wives and 23 children and receives 390,000 dollars in benefits a year: Allah provided teeth, the dhimmi will provide bread.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Yeah, not to be a Hitler in the bunker complaining that the German people let him down but you do have to wonder if a people who send food, medicine and doctors to the nations that want to overrun your land for purpose of allowing those other people to breed more deserve to stick around.

    I mean, if I wasn't white with kids, I'd probably be saying something along the lines of this guy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0WdJx-Wkw

    , @TG
    I sympathize with Amasius, yes, there are a lot of people determined to 'feed' Africa no matter what it costs the rest of the world, and fighting vigorously to avoid confronting the real issues.

    But suppose that 'whites' do manage to feed Africa, and there really are 4 billion Africans by 2100? Will there be 8 billion in 2020? 16 billion in 2040? 32 billion in 2060? No there will not.

    Remember: Africa will not run out of food. Everyone who is alive will have, if only barely, enough food to survive. Nature will make sure of that. The issue is whether we will enjoy it.
    , @Anonymous
    Actually, quite a few Syrians imposed themselves on Germany precisely for 'free' sets of new false teeth courtesy of the German taxpayer.
    More like 'mama Merkel provides the bread, mama Merkel brings the teeth'.
  86. Amasius says:

    And the Europe line includes immigrants I assume. Good lord, what an apocalypse.

    Read More
  87. anon says: • Disclaimer

    Even when aid agencies are well funded, they haven’t always delivered. Over the last decade, a strong critique of aid, ranging from William Easterly’s “The White Man’s Burden” to Dambisa Moyo’s “Dead Aid,” has laid much of the blame for Africa’s continued underdevelopment on the weaknesses of sweeping programs planned from afar

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/06/26/the-race-to-solar-power-africa

    Read More
  88. TWS says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population?
     
    It was supposed to do more than decimate, maybe wipe out half of them, per these alarmists. OK, sorry, I'm a stickler - "decimate" means kill 1 in 10; people don't use it right, but there's no way to change the word's meaning without changing all the Greek (or Latin) number-roots.

    As to your overall point, I also think there is loads of false alarmism to attract more money. Charity executives gotta' eat too, and pretty well! (and they need natives for sex and all). On the AIDS thing, the big push was to keep the narrative going, that this was not just a gay thing - we ALL should be worried. True, you should worry, especially if you note in yourself that you have been watching a lot of musicals lately on the Telly, or Gladiator movies. In those cases, start to worry.

    For the rest of us, who are not intravenous drug users to boot, it was never a big risk. I don't know anyone personally who's ever had AIDS, so.. you know.

    I knew/know many people who’ve got HIV/AIDS. But I was a cop so my experience is atypical. The customers for AIDS cocktails and police attention tend to overlap pretty well.

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  89. Hail says: • Website
    @The Practical Conservative
    Yeah, African Christians have fewer children than African Muslims, frequently as few as white Western Christians (2-4).

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates. The Boers were having 10-15 kids per woman when they were at war.

    The Muslim/Christian issue will have to be decisively settled one way or another, because it's causing a lot of the conflict that drives high birthrates.

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates.

    This seems counter-intuitive, but we do know that the U.S. Baby Boom began (technically, in terms of a rise in births above any then-recent year) as early as 1941. The biggest gains came in the late 1940s and 1950s, of course, but the trendline points up from 1941 already.

    USA Total Fertility Rate
    2.19: 1935-1940 (range: 2.15 to 2.23)
    2.33: 1941
    2.55: 1942
    2.64: 1943
    2.49: 1944
    2.42: 1945
    2.86: 1946
    3.18: 1947
    3.03: 1948
    3.04: 1949
    3.45: 1950s
    1.94: 1970s

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hail
    Maybe more interesting is the case of Denmark, a neutral occupied by Germany from Spring 1940 to May 1945. Denmark had a baby boom under occupation that lost some steam soon after liberation:

    _____________________________

    Denmark's Total Fertility Rate by Decade/Year
    1900s: 3.94
    1910s: 3.34
    1920s: 2.73
    1930s: 2.17
    1940: 2.22 (1940 is the highest single-year rate since 1930 but still very close to 1930s average)
    1941: 2.24
    1942: 2.50 (the upswing begins)
    1943: 2.65
    1944: 2.84
    1945: 2.98
    1946: 3.02
    1947: 2.90
    1948: 2.71
    1949: 2.58
    1950s: 2.56
    1970s: 1.84
    1980s: 1.48
    1990s: 1.74
    2000s: 1.80
    2010s: 1.74 (through 2016)

    The period 1942-1947 had an average TFR of 2.82, the highest TFR for any period of this length in the past 95 years in Denmark. All babies born in 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945 were conceived under German occupation and the general war situation in Europe. Post-war 1946 did have the highest TFR for any year in Denmark since 1921, but that is just a continuation of the baby boom that began during the occupation period. Note too that 1945 and 1946 TFRs are almost identical, and every 1945 baby was conceived under the occupation.
  90. @The Practical Conservative
    Yeah, African Christians have fewer children than African Muslims, frequently as few as white Western Christians (2-4).

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates. The Boers were having 10-15 kids per woman when they were at war.

    The Muslim/Christian issue will have to be decisively settled one way or another, because it's causing a lot of the conflict that drives high birthrates.

    Subsahara African Christians still have much more children than for example south Asian (except Afghanistan) Muslims. This is not about religion I think.

    Read More
  91. @James Kabala
    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession. Highbrow novelist Jonathan Franzen and lowbrow thriller writer Dan Brown both followed up their big successes of the last decade with novels in which the importance of population control was a key point. I don't know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried. The globalist elite (that people at this site usually despise) loves population control.

    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession.

    I don’t know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried.

    Zero population growth has been achieved by White Americans, White Europeans, and the Japanese. Rather than be happy about it, the people you mentioned all in unison constantly harp about the problems this causes and they all constantly demand for more immigration to solve them.

    They all constanly harp about “worker shortages” and demand more immigration.
    They complain about the lack of young people to fund Social Security programs and demand more immigration.

    You mentioned Bloomberg. Here is an article on bloomberg.com about Japan:
    Japan Needs More People
    You might read this article and think that population control is forgotten.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Travis
    White Americans, Europeans and Japan have actually achieved negative population growth.
    If not for Immigration the number of whites in America has declines since 2012. 30% of whites are over the age of 65, the average whit American is 42 while the average non-White is 29.

    The white deaths are just starting, ~2,025,000 died last year with just ~2,000,000 white births. Boomers are 88% white, but will be gone in 20 years. Millennials will be middle aged, and just 60% White, while the US population will be closer to 50% White in 25 years as we continue to allow 1.2 million (mostly non-white) to immigrate each year.
  92. @AndrewR
    The biodiversity of Africa is the entire world's business. Stop with the childish isolationism.

    Lavoisier is advocating prudent, or maybe (OMG) ruthless “isolationism” aka border controls. The principle is simple enough.

    But if this ever changing world
    In which we live in
    Makes you give in and cry …

    Read More
  93. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    A lot of Africa is at war and that always causes high birthrates.
     
    This seems counter-intuitive, but we do know that the U.S. Baby Boom began (technically, in terms of a rise in births above any then-recent year) as early as 1941. The biggest gains came in the late 1940s and 1950s, of course, but the trendline points up from 1941 already.

    USA Total Fertility Rate
    2.19: 1935-1940 (range: 2.15 to 2.23)
    2.33: 1941
    2.55: 1942
    2.64: 1943
    2.49: 1944
    2.42: 1945
    2.86: 1946
    3.18: 1947
    3.03: 1948
    3.04: 1949
    3.45: 1950s
    1.94: 1970s

    Maybe more interesting is the case of Denmark, a neutral occupied by Germany from Spring 1940 to May 1945. Denmark had a baby boom under occupation that lost some steam soon after liberation:

    _____________________________

    Denmark’s Total Fertility Rate by Decade/Year
    1900s: 3.94
    1910s: 3.34
    1920s: 2.73
    1930s: 2.17
    1940: 2.22 (1940 is the highest single-year rate since 1930 but still very close to 1930s average)
    1941: 2.24
    1942: 2.50 (the upswing begins)
    1943: 2.65
    1944: 2.84
    1945: 2.98
    1946: 3.02
    1947: 2.90
    1948: 2.71
    1949: 2.58
    1950s: 2.56
    1970s: 1.84
    1980s: 1.48
    1990s: 1.74
    2000s: 1.80
    2010s: 1.74 (through 2016)

    The period 1942-1947 had an average TFR of 2.82, the highest TFR for any period of this length in the past 95 years in Denmark. All babies born in 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945 were conceived under German occupation and the general war situation in Europe. Post-war 1946 did have the highest TFR for any year in Denmark since 1921, but that is just a continuation of the baby boom that began during the occupation period. Note too that 1945 and 1946 TFRs are almost identical, and every 1945 baby was conceived under the occupation.

    Read More
  94. prole says:

    By the year 2050 Germany, France and Belgium will be Islamic States. Will be interesting if an Islamic Europe will continue to allow Blacks from sub-Sahara Africa to migrate into Europe…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    which agains leads to the strange thought that after all Merkel was doing something good for Europe by letting in all this Syrians and Pseudo-Syrians (e.g. any people from the MENA region). Better have millions of Arabs now, and claim you have done your duty in taking in people, than taking in millions of people from Ghana or Ivory Coast tomorrow.
  95. Old fogey says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population?
     
    It was supposed to do more than decimate, maybe wipe out half of them, per these alarmists. OK, sorry, I'm a stickler - "decimate" means kill 1 in 10; people don't use it right, but there's no way to change the word's meaning without changing all the Greek (or Latin) number-roots.

    As to your overall point, I also think there is loads of false alarmism to attract more money. Charity executives gotta' eat too, and pretty well! (and they need natives for sex and all). On the AIDS thing, the big push was to keep the narrative going, that this was not just a gay thing - we ALL should be worried. True, you should worry, especially if you note in yourself that you have been watching a lot of musicals lately on the Telly, or Gladiator movies. In those cases, start to worry.

    For the rest of us, who are not intravenous drug users to boot, it was never a big risk. I don't know anyone personally who's ever had AIDS, so.. you know.

    My point exactly – we are continually being told that we should worry about all sorts of things that we need not be worried about at all. AIDS is extremely difficult to transmit heterosexually and yet everyone was told this disease would take over the world.

    Another example, we now know that animal fats – think bacon and butter – are far healthier than the vegetable oils that we were told just a few years ago were mandatory in a “healthy” diet and that saturated fat would destroy us. All agit prop.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon

    My point exactly – we are continually being told that we should worry about all sorts of things that we need not be worried about at all. AIDS is extremely difficult to transmit heterosexually and yet everyone was told this disease would take over the world.
     
    Yea. But it had the unintended consequences of reducing other STD's. You might ask for proof. It's a counterfactual.

    Just say it is from personal observation. But overall, safety went up.
  96. Maj. Kong says:
    @PiltdownMan
    Even subtracting out the Sahara desert, Africa's potentially arable land covers almost 3 million square miles. The nearly 3.5 billion people of China, the Indian subcontinent and South-East area live in a smaller area (leaving out the empty and arid western expanse of China).

    In my lifetime, the population of Africa has risen fivefold, from 200 million to 1 billion.

    Although African land has never been farmed as intensively as China's or India's, it is somewhat conceivable that Africa will actually hit that 4 billion population number in the next eight decades.

    Cheap desalination could green the Sahara. Converting desert to farmland would have to make an impact on that CO2 problem we allegedly have.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    If you can figure out cheap desalination, Saudi Arabia has a job for you.
    , @Olorin
    Marine thermoclines and haloclines might have an alternative perspective on your vision of African utopia.
  97. Old fogey says:
    @eD
    (on the slightly off topic comment #1)

    There is "the scientists are all wrong on AIDS' dissident school of thought, similar to the ones on global warning and vaccines. This one actually seems better grounded, at least the scientists supporting it are more impressive, and it does seem the announcement that a virus was causing all those deaths of gay people was something rolled out by Reagan's HHS in the 1980s in response to pressure from gay activists to just do something, anything, before the theory was really vetted.

    The dissident argument is that the fuss in the 1980s was about people dying young from a variety of unrelated causes, linked by unhealthy lifestyles, and was not part of a "syndrome", and that the treatment drugs initially caused more deaths, until the protocols were changed.

    However, you can agree with the mainstream ÄIDS is caused by HIV”argument and still think the accounts and predictions of massive numbers of people dying of heterosexually transmitted AIDS in Africa has been BS. First, Africa is the only continent in the world where heterosexual transmission has been a big mode of spread for HIV and AIDS, everywhere else its almost exclusively homosexual transmission or IV. Sometimes differences in African sexual practices are wheeled out to explain the discrepancy. Second, many of the areas supposedly hardest hit by AIDS have not exactly been doing much HIV testing and don’t really have the administrative structure to do this, or to maintain reliable health statistics either. Third, there is Africa’s explosive population growth, which historically has never happened in areas in the grip of deadly epidemics. So it really does seem that the whole ÄIDS epidemic in Africa”really was something concocted to get more NGOs involved and more western money.

    Incidentally one former President of South Africa said as much, and that was one of the reasons for his removal before the end of his term.

    Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I agree wholeheartedly with your understanding of the situation with respect to Africa. Before I retired I worked for many years in the health section of a foundation that was interested in global health issues and which received many requests for funding of research proposals concerning AIDS in Africa.

    Basically the physicians doing such research described every patient he or she treated as an AIDS victim because this was where the money was. They did not test for the AIDS virus, they based their diagnosis solely on symptoms and since we were told the virus destroyed the immune system, they argued that the diseases suffered by their patients were caused by that particular virus.

    The mind boggles at the amount of money that has been spent on AIDS. After PEPFAR was put into practice I checked the figures and far more money was spent on AIDS by the U.S. government than the major ailments that killed Americans. The gay lobby was enormously successful in its political efforts.

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  98. Dee says:

    It really is all about ‘muh dick’, good luck getting them to slow down; not gonna happen. These are peeps that have the ability to look far into the future; like next week. And act accordingly.

    I was on the fence with abortion until I found out 75% of abortions are inflicted on poor womyn of color. So who’s getting aborted are the next generation of criminals, welfare recipients, general fuck ups, and Democratic voters.

    Why anyone on the right would try to slow that down, boggles the mind. But then those religious fanatics have never been noted for being deep thinkers….I was 12 when I bailed on religion, didn’t make sense to a 12 year old….

    Read More
    • Agree: Frau Katze
    • Replies: @kihowi
    Someone who gets it. All political questions are racial questions. To try to answer them generally is a guarantee of confusion and failure.

    Are you in favor of abortion? Well, depends who is being aborted. Some people I want to multiply, other I do not.

    Are you in favor of universal healthcare? Well, depends.

    Are you in favor of gun rights? Well, depends.

    Any political question not answered by "well, depends" will not be solved.

    , @James Kabala
    You must not be familiar with this isteve oldie but goodie: http://www.unz.com/isteve/abortion-and-crime-sailer-responds-to/

    I suspect that Levitt may have had it backwards. I think it is no surprise that the crime rate increased in the era of legalized abortion. Facilitating the murder of your own child obviously coarsens your soul and makes you less likely to care about the lives and property of strangers. And when the abortion rate finally started to decrease (somewhat - obviously still far above the level of a civilized country) in the 1990s, it may be no coincidence that the crime rate decreased as well.

  99. guest says:

    The world lost interest in the global population bomb, and sub-Saharan Africa was overlooked. But sub-Saharan Africa is not the globe. You’re now talking about a regional population bomb.

    Why is it that “global” still gets shoved in there? Is it a propaganda trick, like Global Warming? Population growth in Africa is population growth everywhere because we’re all one big globe?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Opinionator
    Steve would do well to add South Asia and East Asia to his graph.
  100. Old fogey says:
    @Neoconned
    Agreed a tiny investment now in contraception and other birth control (chemicals in the water supplies?) Will do a "stitch in time" dividend tjat will pay multiples later....

    Think of the reduced counterterrorism, war spending, refugee mitigation, etc expenditures. That doesnt even touch the saved costs from counterterrorism, prison costs, LE costs, welfare expenses, etc

    Investing in contraception now is a bargain.....

    I never kept any of the numbers but I know for a fact that while I was reading the documentation in this field (1980-2005) the largest buyer and supplier of condoms in the world was USAID.

    Condoms were given out freely all over Africa at the same time that the Feminists were calling for male birth control to be developed and castigating all the American drug companies for not coming up with a male “pill.”

    The U.S. has been in the contraceptive game for a very long time. What it has tried to avoid – at least while Republicans were somewhat in control – was supporting abortion as a means of birth control. Whenever you hear the term “women’s health issues,” by the way, that means making abortion free and legal for females of all ages.

    Read More
  101. @Amasius
    Don't underestimate White people's determination to feed these people. They're more determined to feed Africans than my mom is to feed every cat in the neighborhood. White civilization would have to collapse before the food shipments and medical intervention stopped.

    As long as there are a few million Whites organized somewhere, the manna will continue to fall. Like that new German who has 4 wives and 23 children and receives 390,000 dollars in benefits a year: Allah provided teeth, the dhimmi will provide bread.

    Yeah, not to be a Hitler in the bunker complaining that the German people let him down but you do have to wonder if a people who send food, medicine and doctors to the nations that want to overrun your land for purpose of allowing those other people to breed more deserve to stick around.

    I mean, if I wasn’t white with kids, I’d probably be saying something along the lines of this guy:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Olorin
    Unfortunately the above clip excises the funniest part: the airplane-in-distress story being reported by different news-readers.

    The Polynesian guy takes me down every time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBT7S29cf9c

    No shite, Citizen, but I watched part of Airplane! just last night while sharpening chisels, and laughed at this very clip, which I'd forgotten. Actually stopped the vid and re-ran it.

    We need a name for this wacky Sailerian/karass phenomenon, host.
  102. @Maj. Kong
    Cheap desalination could green the Sahara. Converting desert to farmland would have to make an impact on that CO2 problem we allegedly have.

    If you can figure out cheap desalination, Saudi Arabia has a job for you.

    Read More
  103. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Old fogey
    My point exactly - we are continually being told that we should worry about all sorts of things that we need not be worried about at all. AIDS is extremely difficult to transmit heterosexually and yet everyone was told this disease would take over the world.

    Another example, we now know that animal fats - think bacon and butter - are far healthier than the vegetable oils that we were told just a few years ago were mandatory in a "healthy" diet and that saturated fat would destroy us. All agit prop.

    My point exactly – we are continually being told that we should worry about all sorts of things that we need not be worried about at all. AIDS is extremely difficult to transmit heterosexually and yet everyone was told this disease would take over the world.

    Yea. But it had the unintended consequences of reducing other STD’s. You might ask for proof. It’s a counterfactual.

    Just say it is from personal observation. But overall, safety went up.

    Read More
  104. anon says: • Disclaimer

    Shipping food to Africa will make things worse. That is, they will not be able to feed themselves.

    Fertilizer has never been cheaper. Farm commodities have been declining in price forever.

    It is pretty well documented that food aid doesn’t do much for food security. Other than wreck it.

    Read More
  105. Olorin says:
    @Maj. Kong
    Cheap desalination could green the Sahara. Converting desert to farmland would have to make an impact on that CO2 problem we allegedly have.

    Marine thermoclines and haloclines might have an alternative perspective on your vision of African utopia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I enjoyed your "Airplane" clip, Olorin, but don't agree here.

    I'm gonna not even check yet how much water is used for drinking/sanitation/irrigation, everything vs. how much water is in the ocean. I say, NEGLIGIBLE. That's how much I trust my sense of proportion. I'll write back in a few minutes, after it's too late to delete this post.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Water consumed: about 1 x 10** 16 liters yearly. (what the heck works for superscript tag?)
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Water volume in world's oceans: 1.5 x 10**9 km**3
    = 1. 5 x 10**18 m**3 = 1.5 x 10**21 liters.

    (Hey got BOLDS in there that came out of no where - did not mean to do that and can't fix it)

    So, in a century of 10 x current yearly use (no reason for the 10x, just being conservative):

    We'd have converted < 1 % of the ocean water to fresh water that would mostly flow back into the ocean unsalted. No matter what happens, we'll always have Lake Wobegon.

    I don't see a problem, but I'm no thermocline guy.

  106. kihowi says:
    @Dee
    It really is all about 'muh dick', good luck getting them to slow down; not gonna happen. These are peeps that have the ability to look far into the future; like next week. And act accordingly.

    I was on the fence with abortion until I found out 75% of abortions are inflicted on poor womyn of color. So who's getting aborted are the next generation of criminals, welfare recipients, general fuck ups, and Democratic voters.

    Why anyone on the right would try to slow that down, boggles the mind. But then those religious fanatics have never been noted for being deep thinkers....I was 12 when I bailed on religion, didn't make sense to a 12 year old....

    Someone who gets it. All political questions are racial questions. To try to answer them generally is a guarantee of confusion and failure.

    Are you in favor of abortion? Well, depends who is being aborted. Some people I want to multiply, other I do not.

    Are you in favor of universal healthcare? Well, depends.

    Are you in favor of gun rights? Well, depends.

    Any political question not answered by “well, depends” will not be solved.

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    • Replies: @Flip
    Sometimes I see white 20something women standing on the street asking for donations for Planned Parenthood, and I've been tempted to go up to them and say what a good job they do in reducing the number of black births, but I haven't been brave enough to troll at that level. :)
  107. I looked at the corresponding net migration patterns in that linked dataset and plotted them.

    Am I reading this right? The UN projects a net migration of 25 million people out of Sub-Saharan Africa from now through 2100? Only a million net Sub-Saharan African emigrants in 2095-2100, out of 4.5 billion?

    UN World Population Prospects: Migration

    Also, Steve didn’t even plot the high and low scenarios–a low estimate of 2.8 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2100, but a high of 5.5 billion.

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  108. Olorin says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Yeah, not to be a Hitler in the bunker complaining that the German people let him down but you do have to wonder if a people who send food, medicine and doctors to the nations that want to overrun your land for purpose of allowing those other people to breed more deserve to stick around.

    I mean, if I wasn't white with kids, I'd probably be saying something along the lines of this guy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0WdJx-Wkw

    Unfortunately the above clip excises the funniest part: the airplane-in-distress story being reported by different news-readers.

    The Polynesian guy takes me down every time.

    No shite, Citizen, but I watched part of Airplane! just last night while sharpening chisels, and laughed at this very clip, which I’d forgotten. Actually stopped the vid and re-ran it.

    We need a name for this wacky Sailerian/karass phenomenon, host.

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  109. Travis says:
    @Hippopotamusdrome


    Some of the richest men in the world (Gates, Buffett, Turner, Bloomberg, and of course Soros) are big fans of population control to the point of obsession.
    ...
    I don’t know where Steve gets this idea that the issue has been forgotten or buried.

     

    Zero population growth has been achieved by White Americans, White Europeans, and the Japanese. Rather than be happy about it, the people you mentioned all in unison constantly harp about the problems this causes and they all constantly demand for more immigration to solve them.

    They all constanly harp about "worker shortages" and demand more immigration.
    They complain about the lack of young people to fund Social Security programs and demand more immigration.

    You mentioned Bloomberg. Here is an article on bloomberg.com about Japan:
    Japan Needs More People
    You might read this article and think that population control is forgotten.

    White Americans, Europeans and Japan have actually achieved negative population growth.
    If not for Immigration the number of whites in America has declines since 2012. 30% of whites are over the age of 65, the average whit American is 42 while the average non-White is 29.

    The white deaths are just starting, ~2,025,000 died last year with just ~2,000,000 white births. Boomers are 88% white, but will be gone in 20 years. Millennials will be middle aged, and just 60% White, while the US population will be closer to 50% White in 25 years as we continue to allow 1.2 million (mostly non-white) to immigrate each year.

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  110. TG says:
    @Amasius
    Don't underestimate White people's determination to feed these people. They're more determined to feed Africans than my mom is to feed every cat in the neighborhood. White civilization would have to collapse before the food shipments and medical intervention stopped.

    As long as there are a few million Whites organized somewhere, the manna will continue to fall. Like that new German who has 4 wives and 23 children and receives 390,000 dollars in benefits a year: Allah provided teeth, the dhimmi will provide bread.

    I sympathize with Amasius, yes, there are a lot of people determined to ‘feed’ Africa no matter what it costs the rest of the world, and fighting vigorously to avoid confronting the real issues.

    But suppose that ‘whites’ do manage to feed Africa, and there really are 4 billion Africans by 2100? Will there be 8 billion in 2020? 16 billion in 2040? 32 billion in 2060? No there will not.

    Remember: Africa will not run out of food. Everyone who is alive will have, if only barely, enough food to survive. Nature will make sure of that. The issue is whether we will enjoy it.

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  111. @The Z Blog
    That's the issue. Global warming will make the seas rise to the point where SSA is flooded along the eastern edge. The people, naturally, will flee west, causing the continent to tip over and billions of people to fall into the ocean.

    That’s the issue. Global warming will make the seas rise to the point where SSA is flooded along the eastern edge. The people, naturally, will flee west, causing the continent to tip over and billions of people to fall into the ocean.

    Indeed, between Hank Johnson, US Congress, D, (honorary)PhD-Geology, spec.-Continental Drift, and some of these other guys we got working the models, it’s important we get a global plan together now. Let’s me and you head back to Paris and apologize.

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  112. Flip says:
    @kihowi
    Someone who gets it. All political questions are racial questions. To try to answer them generally is a guarantee of confusion and failure.

    Are you in favor of abortion? Well, depends who is being aborted. Some people I want to multiply, other I do not.

    Are you in favor of universal healthcare? Well, depends.

    Are you in favor of gun rights? Well, depends.

    Any political question not answered by "well, depends" will not be solved.

    Sometimes I see white 20something women standing on the street asking for donations for Planned Parenthood, and I’ve been tempted to go up to them and say what a good job they do in reducing the number of black births, but I haven’t been brave enough to troll at that level. :)

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  113. pyrrhus says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    You must be aware that much of Africa is not tillable land, but desert or swamp, and that Africans are not only the least intelligent people on the planet, but many of them have little experience in agriculture at any scale. Finally, clean water is in short supply in much of Africa, and the governments are totally corrupt.
    So your geographic comparison is simply not relevant, and will never be….

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Africa has lots of non-desert land. It's really big. Also, it doesn't have a lot of mountain ranges. It's mostly level.

    On the other hand, the soil quality isn't high outside of volcanic areas like Rwanda.

  114. mobi says:

    Assuming option 2 is most likely, it’s kind of fascinating to me to wonder if it would drive a reversal of whatever evolutionary pressures led to the creation of the Africa-vs-everyone else gap in the first place.

    In other words, would they begin to close the gap, before our very eyes, so to speak? It’s been well noted that reproductive trends in the West have been turning from eugenic to dysgenic, due roughly to a relaxing, even reversing, of ‘survival of the fittest’ pressures.

    Assuming mainly option 2 going forward for Africa, those pressures are going to intensify, not weaken, let alone reverse. The premium placed on smarts, group cohesion, future time preference, etc, grow stronger for them, while they grow weaker for everyone else.

    And assuming Diamond was wrong (‘Africans aren’t any less capable – they just live in a place that lacks all the lucky breaks that make civilisation possible elsewhere’), but indirectly right (Africans are less capable because they evolved in a place that lacked the lucky breaks that intensified the selective advantages to genetic gains in brainpower, etc), then that ‘lack of lucky breaks’ would no longer apply – Africans would have access in principle to much of the technology and knowledge of civilisation from the outside world, with which those groups/tribes/nations most on the ball, relatively speaking, could gain the dominant hand over their slower rivals.

    The example of Rwanda comes to mind – as one of the most densely populated countries in Africa today, it’s already a glimpse into Africa 2100 of the graph – ahead of its time.

    And we know what happened – Tutsi genocide, yes, but followed by the badly-bloodied Tutsi minority gaining the upper hand (aided by modern weapons, tactics, training, discipline etc). And today, a Tutsi-run Rwanda that leads Sub-Saharan Africa in livability, by various measures.

    Yes, given the time scales required, combined with the advance of things like CRISPR in the rest of the world, perhaps it’s a moot point.

    On the other hand, given the demographic trends in that same rest-of-the-world, perhaps not.

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  115. @pyrrhus
    You must be aware that much of Africa is not tillable land, but desert or swamp, and that Africans are not only the least intelligent people on the planet, but many of them have little experience in agriculture at any scale. Finally, clean water is in short supply in much of Africa, and the governments are totally corrupt.
    So your geographic comparison is simply not relevant, and will never be....

    Africa has lots of non-desert land. It’s really big. Also, it doesn’t have a lot of mountain ranges. It’s mostly level.

    On the other hand, the soil quality isn’t high outside of volcanic areas like Rwanda.

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  116. @Daniel Chieh
    They especially want to control the number of deplorable white people.

    They send a lot of money to Africa, though.

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  117. @Dee
    It really is all about 'muh dick', good luck getting them to slow down; not gonna happen. These are peeps that have the ability to look far into the future; like next week. And act accordingly.

    I was on the fence with abortion until I found out 75% of abortions are inflicted on poor womyn of color. So who's getting aborted are the next generation of criminals, welfare recipients, general fuck ups, and Democratic voters.

    Why anyone on the right would try to slow that down, boggles the mind. But then those religious fanatics have never been noted for being deep thinkers....I was 12 when I bailed on religion, didn't make sense to a 12 year old....

    You must not be familiar with this isteve oldie but goodie: http://www.unz.com/isteve/abortion-and-crime-sailer-responds-to/

    I suspect that Levitt may have had it backwards. I think it is no surprise that the crime rate increased in the era of legalized abortion. Facilitating the murder of your own child obviously coarsens your soul and makes you less likely to care about the lives and property of strangers. And when the abortion rate finally started to decrease (somewhat – obviously still far above the level of a civilized country) in the 1990s, it may be no coincidence that the crime rate decreased as well.

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  118. @Olorin
    Marine thermoclines and haloclines might have an alternative perspective on your vision of African utopia.

    I enjoyed your “Airplane” clip, Olorin, but don’t agree here.

    I’m gonna not even check yet how much water is used for drinking/sanitation/irrigation, everything vs. how much water is in the ocean. I say, NEGLIGIBLE. That’s how much I trust my sense of proportion. I’ll write back in a few minutes, after it’s too late to delete this post.

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  119. @Olorin
    Marine thermoclines and haloclines might have an alternative perspective on your vision of African utopia.

    Water consumed: about 1 x 10** 16 liters yearly. (what the heck works for superscript tag?)

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    • Replies: @Frau Katze
    The up sign. As in 3^^2 = 9. Or maybe just one, 3^2 = 9.
  120. @tyrone
    THINK of all the EINSTEINS! what wonderful glorious future we will all have.Sorry, I just can't get over the whole Watson thing.

    Indeed. By 2100, with 4.5 billion blacks, there will be, what?, 200 million with IQs over the white mean.

    Maybe the 200 million black astrophysicists can build a bridge to Mars with the rest of them.

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  121. Anonym says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Exactly.

    No offense, Steve, but this is only the "World’s Most Important Graph" to suicidially idiotic Western countries that don't control their own borders and have lost their ability to think tribally. This graph is a curiousity to the Japanese, Koreans, Chinese and any other people who understand the concept and utility of a fence.

    What Africans choose to do in their own countries should be of no concern of mine. It's why we have separate countries.

    Europe and the United States deserve their fate if they allow in millions of low-IQ, short time horizon, wholly incompatible Africans. A better example of Survival of Fittest you likely will never see. It's not Survival of the Smartest or Survival of the Most Cultured or Survival of the Nicest. It's fucking Survival of Fittest, survival of those best suited for that particular environment.

    Right now, Africans are the most suited for this environment. Ironically, it's an environment created by whites, but that's irrelevant for the time being. Whites created the environment that caused them to decline and Africans to succeed. Darwin must be laughing somewhere - in between his tears.

    Right now, Africans are the most suited for this environment. Ironically, it’s an environment created by whites, but that’s irrelevant for the time being. Whites created the environment that caused them to decline and Africans to succeed. Darwin must be laughing somewhere – in between his tears.

    Certainly PC has a lot to do with the inability to call a spade a spade. But white liberals have much to answer for too. A good example of this way of thinking is from Scandinavia, world’s (epi)center of pathological altruism – Bjorn Lomborg, Danish gay vegetarian of Skeptical Environmentalist fame. Leave it to a childless Scandinavian to recommend what’s best for the world.

    On the contrary, Lomborg claims that food is widespread, and humanity’s daily intake of calories is increasing, and will continue to rise until hunger’s eradication, thanks to technological improvements in agriculture. However, Lomborg notes that Africa in particular still produces too little sustenance, an effect he attributes to the continent’s dismal economic and political systems. Concerning prosperity, Lomborg argues that wealth, as measured by per capita GDP, should not be the only judging criterion. He points to improvements in education, safety, leisure, and ever more widespread access to consumer goods as signs that prosperity is increasing in most parts of the world.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Skeptical_Environmentalist

    Sure, if you have never seen an IQ map of the world or a plot of GDP/capita vs IQ, you might come to some of the conclusions of Lomborg. His epicyclist view of the world results in a conclusion of “feed the animals”. If we feed them, they will become wealthy, and suddenly become like whites or Asians and manage their environment better. The reality is that when we introduce Western medicine and disease prevention techniques and give them food, their population breeds out of control. It is not the lack of hallmarks of civilization such as economic or political systems (or indeed landing strips for aircraft to bring the cargo from their ancestors) that are the problem of SSAs, it is the SSAs themselves.

    On another note, a theme song for the topic:

    https://youtu.be/x6Oh4aaLCFM

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  122. @Olorin
    Marine thermoclines and haloclines might have an alternative perspective on your vision of African utopia.

    Water volume in world’s oceans: 1.5 x 10**9 km**3
    = 1. 5 x 10**18 m**3 = 1.5 x 10**21 liters.

    (Hey got BOLDS in there that came out of no where – did not mean to do that and can’t fix it)

    So, in a century of 10 x current yearly use (no reason for the 10x, just being conservative):

    We’d have converted < 1 % of the ocean water to fresh water that would mostly flow back into the ocean unsalted. No matter what happens, we'll always have Lake Wobegon.

    I don't see a problem, but I'm no thermocline guy.

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  123. Pat Boyle says:
    @Anonym
    My preference is for the first of those three possibilities.

    Where is your sense of romance and adventure, Mr Sailer? I imagine it will go down something like this:

    https://youtu.be/1csr0dxalpI

    Of course the Welsh trooper is exactly right. African men have a fundamental speech frequency something like a major third below that of whites. This is why so many black actors are famous for their voices. Actors like James Earl Jones, or Dennis Hasbert.

    But what they gain on the low notes they lose on the top. There are rather fewer black tenors than you would expect. There is no black Pavarotti for example.

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  124. Pat Boyle says:

    I think everyone is misinterpreting Steve’s African population graph. Population simply can’t grow that fast for very long. Sooner or later the species runs into some environmental factor which stops or reverses the direction. Steve’s graph looks like the first half of a sine wave like graph that is generated by positive feedback.

    Looking at that graph I imagine that it will at some point hit some constraining factor and the population will retreat back. This is the pattern of creatures like lemmings which change their behavior in response to population pressure. They expand their numbers and then they crash.

    As I understand it South Africa as well as Ethiopia are currently experiencing severe water shortages. Maybe the the turn around is near.

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  125. Pat Boyle says:
    @Eustace Tilley (not)
    It may interest you to know that in Niger a wife's status in the hierarchy of wives is determined by the number of children she bears; wives compete for status by having children. Niger has the highest birthrate in the world. (They are mostly Muslim, as you might have guessed).

    The religious right knows something you may not: contraception is the chief cause of female promiscuity and is thus destructive of the family and society in general. The religious right, like the political right, gets little exposure or support in the MSM (that's "Mainstream Media"). Check out https://heartiste.wordpress.com to learn about the catastrophic consequences of female sexual "liberation" in the West.

    I am perennially amused by nicewhites who actually believe that blacks have any interest at all in the consequences of their actions, or care one whit about the future. I have never seen any evidence to support that assumption.

    There is some hope: If trends in South Africa are any indication, science and medicine will deteriorate so badly under black rule that they will not be able to contain future epidemics, such as AIDS. This disease came from bonobos, which have had these pathogens in their bodies for a long time and have evolved tolerance for them. The practice of eating "bush meat" is probably how AIDS was introduced into human populations. Perhaps, somewhere in the dark rainforests of the Congo, sequestered for centuries in the bloodstreams of animals, lives the viral messiah that will save planet Earth, awaiting only the arrival of a hunter to liberate its Malthusian magic.

    Do you have a source for your claim that AIDS comes from bonobos?

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  126. Pat Boyle says:
    @AndrewR
    The biodiversity of Africa is the entire world's business. Stop with the childish isolationism.

    I don’t understand why you think biodiversity is the whole world’s business? It sounds like you are winding up for a pitch to raise funds to send to Africa. I have no objection to anyone anywhere sending any kind of aid to Africans but I do object to taking tax money and sending it to Africa.

    There are two possible meaning for the “biodiversity of Africa”. First it could be concern for endangered species. That seems legitimate to me. An overpopulated Africa will probably kill and eat a lot of rare species. Most would agree that should be avoided.

    The second meaning come from the fact that humans evolved in Africa. About thirty thousand years ago small groups split off from the main body and walked north. Those who went to Europe became Caucasians and those who went to East became Asians. Naturally the larger root population they stayed in Africa has greater genetic diversity than the small groups who left. This it seems to me is less significant than the argument to preserve endangered species.

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Pat, AndrewR was being facetious. He cares no more for Africa than I do for seeing Karl Marx's grave tended.
    , @AndrewR
    Obviously I'm referring primarily to non-human lifeforms but I do want all the various ethnic groups preserved too, although I think SSA's total popolulation should remain under 100m.
  127. @lavoisier
    This is of course a major problem for Africa and for African people.

    It should not HAVE to be a problem for the responsible parts of the world that manage to control their population. But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic and the brain dead behavior patterns of the typical white liberal.

    The only legitimate state interest that the West should have regarding Africa is to insure that Africans stay in Africa. It is what many black people claim they want anyway--to be free of the racism of whitey.

    It is long past time that we treat African people like people--let them control their own destiny.

    But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic

    You are substituting a caricature for a genuine Christian ethic. If you think that Leftists advocate their positions because they are “Christian” you need to lie down and take fever-reducing medications. The Left uses (or, more accurately, abuses) Christianity as a cudgel to beat the weak-minded into submission to their Marxist agenda. But its relationship to Christianity is tenuous, warped and denigrated.

    Don’t saw off the limb you, and we all, sit on.

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    • Replies: @lavoisier
    I am not suggesting a direct connection between Christian ethics and the egalitarian fantasies of brain dead white liberals.

    But Christian ethics extended to the rest of the world ARE dangerous for the preservation of one's own culture and one's own people. Christian ethics are universal, and are noble on a theoretical level; but because of their universal nature they undermine the legitimate and essential selfishness critical to protecting your own people and your own nation first.

    Leftists see no distinction between their own tribe and the other with the exception that they are masochists, so in fact denigrate their tribe more than the other. Hence the white SJW who despises himself, his own people, and the civilization his ancestors created.

    But do not dismiss the very real damage that Christian ethics has played in bringing about the multicultural nightmare we all face. Look no further than the organizations bringing in all the refugees and you will invariably find a religious face to the fraud.

    A noble writer said it best:

    "If every man is my brother, I have no brothers."

  128. @Pat Boyle
    I don't understand why you think biodiversity is the whole world's business? It sounds like you are winding up for a pitch to raise funds to send to Africa. I have no objection to anyone anywhere sending any kind of aid to Africans but I do object to taking tax money and sending it to Africa.

    There are two possible meaning for the "biodiversity of Africa". First it could be concern for endangered species. That seems legitimate to me. An overpopulated Africa will probably kill and eat a lot of rare species. Most would agree that should be avoided.

    The second meaning come from the fact that humans evolved in Africa. About thirty thousand years ago small groups split off from the main body and walked north. Those who went to Europe became Caucasians and those who went to East became Asians. Naturally the larger root population they stayed in Africa has greater genetic diversity than the small groups who left. This it seems to me is less significant than the argument to preserve endangered species.

    Pat, AndrewR was being facetious. He cares no more for Africa than I do for seeing Karl Marx’s grave tended.

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  129. Wilkey says:

    When I did a rough, amateur calculation of Africa’s projected population based on its growth rates over the last 4-5 decades – growth rates that haven’t slowed in the least – the estimate actually came to 7-9 billion. 4.5 billion could be a serious underestimate.

    The African desire to procreate doesn’t seem to have slowed any while Western charity and technology have removed many of the normal limits to population growth.

    It’s going to be a rough century.

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  130. @Old fogey
    Blessedly, Africa is a very large continent, as a glance at a globe will confirm.

    By the way, remember all the talk about AIDS, and how AIDS would decimate the African population? Was that just a tool to pry dollars from the West, or did people actually believe that AIDS was that much of an epidemic?

    AIDS was also supposed to decimate India and utterly destroy Thailand. None of that happened either. I tend nowadays to believe absolutely nothing that comes from the medical establishment. They have been wrong about nearly everything over the past 50 years.

    When AIDS first appeared, and it was the “gay plague”, homophobic African politicians claimed their countries had none of that. Then when media propaganda convinced the public that the disease was an equal risk for straights, Africans suddenly discovered AIDS epidemics which required Western taxpayers to give them billions of dollars in AIDS aid.

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  131. @anonymous
    What about the famine? Recall in 1984, Ethiopia was starving and the rock stars in the US and UK came together to make their respective relief songs.

    If I recall Ethiopia had around 30 million people back then. It's off the charts now.

    It looks like AIDS and famine have been little more than speed bumps.

    Just got this in a newsletter: A Preventable Tragedy Millions Around The World Are Still Threatened with Starvation

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-preventable-tragedy-millions-are-still-threatened-with-starvation-a-1152963.html#ref=nl-international

    The article blames global warming, despite their early reference to a “mother of seven”.

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  132. @27 year old

    So the U.S. is supposed to pay for family planning in Africa? And if we don’t, they simply reproduce like tribbles, destroying what is otherwise one of the most spectacular continents on earth? How about a little self-directed “family planning”?
     
    I'm sorry this is offensive to boomer-conservative sensibilities but yes we are supposed to pay for it. We have no obligation to teach them a lesson about Personal Responsibility (tm). We have a self interest in minimizing the damage they can inflict on us and on our planet. As you say: otherwise they will destroy the continent and they will also destroy our continent too.

    Last year my mother was rear ended at low speed by a teenage girl. My mom asked for insurance info etc and the girl told my mom that she had no idea what to do in this situation and needed to call her own mom to help her. My mom recalled recalled with pride that she told that (entitled snowflake millennial idiot) girl that she needed to learn how to do these things herself and not rely on her parents.

    I told my mom she was totally nuts, and I think your attitude is also totally nuts. We need to do what will get the best result for us, not try to teach strangers a lesson about principles.

    I’d hit the agree button but I’ve used it up for now.

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  133. @TheJester
    The UN predicts that Nigeria will displace the USA with the world's third-largest population by 2050 ... that's an estimated 398,507,704 people living in a country twice the size of California.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371

    At the same time, Nigeria is currently undergoing a famine. The UN, OXFAM, and other agencies and NCOs are canvassing in the West for food aid for Nigeria to apparently ensure that Nigeria's population keeps its pace and place on the above timeline.

    http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/countries/africa/nigeria?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuc6C4LDR1AIVxI5-Ch0xBA5UEAAYAyAAEgJXVvD_BwE

    My prediction is that Nigeria and other sub-Saharan countries will never escape the international dole to feed their burgeoning populations. It's international welfare writ large for "gibsmedat" societies ... as Western countries in practice subsidize Africa as a "global nursery" providing replacement populations for Western countries struggling with the negative demographic impacts of feminism.

    In line with this, I do not believe that Nigeria will reach the numbers predicted above, which assumes that the millions of new Nigerians will all remain in Nigeria. A large percentage will displace themselves to Europe and perhaps the Americas to be closer to the Western welfare systems that sustain them. It's already started.

    Eventually, maybe not so far off, the West will run out of resources and won’t be able to help.

    By that time we’ll likely be hosting lots of Africans too. The whole thing will be a disaster. For us (or our descendants) too.

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  134. @Daniel Chieh
    Did Africa become part of the US recently? I haven't seen it on the fake news sites I go to.

    Everywhere is now part of the USA. Didn’t you get the memo?

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  135. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people.

    To be sure I don't think there's any place in SSA that matches the agricultural productivity of the Ganges valley but still, I think 4 billion should be within Africa's capacity to support, assuming trade and technological links remain with the outside world, and global warming remains moderate.

    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, I see that as the likely outcome.

    Moderate global warming (2-3C) should actually increase African agricultural productivity so they might also have that going for them.

    All societies have undergone the fertility transition. I don't see why Africa should be an exception, even if it's the last major region to experience it.

    Obviously they won't become industrial or scientific powerhouses due to the low IQs but I think attaining GDP (PPP) per capita of 25% of the First World level (versus about 10% today) should be attainable for most African countries once they escape their Malthusian traps.
    , @Ed
    Niger, the country with the highest fertility rate in the world, cannot feed itself now. There has been UN declared famine to its immediate south in Northern Nigeria, the lion of Africa. There's a decent chance Nigeria experiences a major political cataclysmic event within the next 5 years.

    Getting aid to much of Africa is extremely difficult. Aid workers have pulled back in places like South Sudan after aid workers have been caught in the crossfire of raped.

    Having space on the continent means nothing if there are wars, poor land management or government. Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa's worries.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Anon, you are full of it with regard to this line:

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).
     
    Let me put this one in a truthful format instead of that lie (or misinterpretation, to put it charitably):

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa because it is full of Africans (with such worry because, though they don't care as much what happens in Africa, their "leaders" are importing the people and problems to their own countries.)
     
    Oh, and nobody wants to have people starving and in misery anywhere on Earth, but we tried colonization already - haven't gotten a lot of good reviews. We are taking the reviews to heart and staying out now, but we don't want to become Africa. After 50 years on their own (except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa, and the current rear-guard retreat of the whites from The Republic of S. Africa) things are not developing per your comment above. Most of the place will revert to savagery without the help of somebody - I hope it IS the Chinese. That doesn't bother me, as I'm not a necocon out to support the American Empire.

    Let the Chinese take up the Yellow Man's burden, and let the white man just regroup for a century or two, then, later on, some of us can take off to another planet and leave the cntrl-left, Commies, Socialists, neocons, and general human trash behind. Don't try to follow us - GPS will not work once you get much above the orbits of the satellites themselves.
    , @jim jones
    So Africa will look like Switzerland in a few years?
  136. Those projections are still inexplicably optimistic. They forecast Africa’s (compound) annual growth rate from 2017 to 2050 at 2.1%, but from 2050 to 2100 at only 1.1%. Why? What warrants such optimism?

    Read More
    • Replies: @mobi

    Those projections are still inexplicably optimistic. They forecast Africa’s (compound) annual growth rate from 2017 to 2050 at 2.1%, but from 2050 to 2100 at only 1.1%. Why? What warrants such optimism?
     
    Global warming speeds everything up.
  137. mobi says:
    @International Jew
    Those projections are still inexplicably optimistic. They forecast Africa's (compound) annual growth rate from 2017 to 2050 at 2.1%, but from 2050 to 2100 at only 1.1%. Why? What warrants such optimism?

    Those projections are still inexplicably optimistic. They forecast Africa’s (compound) annual growth rate from 2017 to 2050 at 2.1%, but from 2050 to 2100 at only 1.1%. Why? What warrants such optimism?

    Global warming speeds everything up.

    Read More
  138. @MW
    The Amish tend not to vote. But suppose they start voting at rates comparable to the general population, and reliably go Republican. With a population of about 300,000 that doubles every 20 years, that gets you to 10 million Amish a hundred years from now. The Amish vote is not going to be significant outside of Pennsylvania / Ohio / Indiana for a very long time, and may never be significant anywhere.

    https://groups.etown.edu/amishstudies/statistics/population-trends-2011-2016/

    They’re extremely inbred and have high rates of hideous hereditary diseases. Many kids killed by these conditions.

    I don’t see how they could possibly become a significant population unless 1) they started to accept converts or 2) they try to get the rates of disease down with genetic testing.

    No sign of either happening.

    Read More
  139. @Achmed E. Newman
    Water consumed: about 1 x 10** 16 liters yearly. (what the heck works for superscript tag?)

    The up sign. As in 3^^2 = 9. Or maybe just one, 3^2 = 9.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    It would be the latter of yours, Frau, but that's just from the old calculator notation (they couldn't do anything fancy display-wise back in 1978). I wanted to do a real superscript with the tag - works perfectly fine other places (I can't show you, as unauthorized html tags get stripped - unz has a good reason for this). However, strike-through works here, and I swear I've seen comments with actual superscripting on here.

    My ** are from the old FORTRAN way of showing scientific notation. Another one from the hand calculator world is "EE" . They didn't even have your carat character on the display I guess. You could make all the numbers and lots of letters from the 7 segments of LED's - people had to be much more clever in those days.

    Thanks for the reply, Fraulein.

  140. Anon 2 says:
    @res

    Just pay every man willing to be sterilized a lump sum of $5000 or $10000.
     
    It is amazing that some people don't realize the problem is all about the number of women reproducing. It only takes one promiscuous man to make up for essentially any number of sterilized men.

    You don’t have to read Heartiste to know that
    nothing on earth is as effective at reducing birthrates
    as turning women into feminists – feminazis would
    be even better. Just do this to African women
    (I’m sure Bill Gates would be more than happy to
    open his wallet for this noble cause), sit back, and
    watch the fertility rates fall like manna from heaven.
    Sisterhood Is Powerful!

    P.S. There was a story a few months ago to the effect
    that feeding women a steady TV diet of Latin-American
    telenovelas can also play its part. Women will see that
    it’s possible for families to only have 2-3 children and
    still be happy. For African women that would be
    a revolutionary idea

    Read More
  141. @guest
    The world lost interest in the global population bomb, and sub-Saharan Africa was overlooked. But sub-Saharan Africa is not the globe. You're now talking about a regional population bomb.

    Why is it that "global" still gets shoved in there? Is it a propaganda trick, like Global Warming? Population growth in Africa is population growth everywhere because we're all one big globe?

    Steve would do well to add South Asia and East Asia to his graph.

    Read More
  142. TTSSYF says:
    @Samuel Skinner
    Their behavior is rational. If you stop having kids and your neighbors keep on having kids, in a generation they will be able to overrun you.

    It is only rational in a collectively irrational society.

    Read More
  143. @anon
    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.

    Yes, I see that as the likely outcome.

    Moderate global warming (2-3C) should actually increase African agricultural productivity so they might also have that going for them.

    All societies have undergone the fertility transition. I don’t see why Africa should be an exception, even if it’s the last major region to experience it.

    Obviously they won’t become industrial or scientific powerhouses due to the low IQs but I think attaining GDP (PPP) per capita of 25% of the First World level (versus about 10% today) should be attainable for most African countries once they escape their Malthusian traps.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Anatoly, all your theories, dreams, hopes, and plans for subtropical Africa don't mean a hill of beans to anyone who's been there or spent much time in an American inner city. I think you should get out more. You're very hopeful and that's not a bad thing, but please don't think this comment of yours is worth a damn thing. You should read your repliers' comments, so you don't repeat your errors over and over.

    In terms of your Global Climate Disruption(TM) naivete, you should start with the 5 posts on mathematical modeling here. They are written descriptively - you needn't be an engineer to read these posts. Then go on to the political stuff.
    , @Achmed E. Newman

    Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa’s worries.
     
    Nothing against the rest of your comment, BTW, but I think you've still got a little bit of Anatoly's misunderstanding in this last line. How about:

    iSteve posters may be racist because they understand Africa and Africans much better than you, Anatoly.
     
  144. Ed says:
    @anon
    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.

    Niger, the country with the highest fertility rate in the world, cannot feed itself now. There has been UN declared famine to its immediate south in Northern Nigeria, the lion of Africa. There’s a decent chance Nigeria experiences a major political cataclysmic event within the next 5 years.

    Getting aid to much of Africa is extremely difficult. Aid workers have pulled back in places like South Sudan after aid workers have been caught in the crossfire of raped.

    Having space on the continent means nothing if there are wars, poor land management or government. Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa’s worries.

    Read More
    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa’s worries.
     
    Nothing against the rest of your comment, Ed, but it just reads like you've still got a little bit of anon's misunderstanding in this last line. How about:

    iSteve posters may be racist because they understand Africa and Africans much better than you, Anatoly.
     
  145. “But it had the unintended consequences of reducing other STD’s. You might ask for proof.”

    Don’t know about the US, but UK STDs have been going up ever since the 1970s, and if AIDS campaigns had an effect it was only temporary.

    (Haven’t time to research the figures, not as easy as it used to be since the “National” health service was split into four by devolved government. Here are the England figures 2007-2016, note that syphilis, eradicated in the 1970s, is back at 1949 levels.)

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/617025/Health_Protection_Report_STIs_NCSP_2017.pdf

    http://www.cnwl.nhs.uk/news/cnwl-expert-comments-public-health-englands-figures-showing-dramatic-rise-syphilis/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Opinionator
    Consider how bad the UK rates would be WITHOUT the Muslim population there!
  146. @Frau Katze
    The up sign. As in 3^^2 = 9. Or maybe just one, 3^2 = 9.

    It would be the latter of yours, Frau, but that’s just from the old calculator notation (they couldn’t do anything fancy display-wise back in 1978). I wanted to do a real superscript with the tag – works perfectly fine other places (I can’t show you, as unauthorized html tags get stripped – unz has a good reason for this). However, strike-through works here, and I swear I’ve seen comments with actual superscripting on here.

    My ** are from the old FORTRAN way of showing scientific notation. Another one from the hand calculator world is “EE” . They didn’t even have your carat character on the display I guess. You could make all the numbers and lots of letters from the 7 segments of LED’s – people had to be much more clever in those days.

    Thanks for the reply, Fraulein.

    Read More
  147. @Philip
    With regard to AIDS, the development of drugs that lead to lower transmission by infected persons, as well as vastly increased life-spans of those already affected, has led to the very significant fall in deaths from the virus. Also, some benefit of changed behaviours.

    With regard to AIDS, the development of drugs that lead to lower transmission by infected persons, as well as vastly increased life-spans of those already affected, has led to the very significant fall in deaths from the virus. Also, some benefit of changed behaviours.

    None of that applies to Africa.

    Read More
  148. @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, I see that as the likely outcome.

    Moderate global warming (2-3C) should actually increase African agricultural productivity so they might also have that going for them.

    All societies have undergone the fertility transition. I don't see why Africa should be an exception, even if it's the last major region to experience it.

    Obviously they won't become industrial or scientific powerhouses due to the low IQs but I think attaining GDP (PPP) per capita of 25% of the First World level (versus about 10% today) should be attainable for most African countries once they escape their Malthusian traps.

    Anatoly, all your theories, dreams, hopes, and plans for subtropical Africa don’t mean a hill of beans to anyone who’s been there or spent much time in an American inner city. I think you should get out more. You’re very hopeful and that’s not a bad thing, but please don’t think this comment of yours is worth a damn thing. You should read your repliers’ comments, so you don’t repeat your errors over and over.

    In terms of your Global Climate Disruption(TM) naivete, you should start with the 5 posts on mathematical modeling here. They are written descriptively – you needn’t be an engineer to read these posts. Then go on to the political stuff.

    Read More
  149. I’m hoping the Japanese figure out a way to release an airborne virus that sterilizes 90% of Africans.

    I figure that’s going to be the end game when it starts looking all WWZ.

    Read More
  150. @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, I see that as the likely outcome.

    Moderate global warming (2-3C) should actually increase African agricultural productivity so they might also have that going for them.

    All societies have undergone the fertility transition. I don't see why Africa should be an exception, even if it's the last major region to experience it.

    Obviously they won't become industrial or scientific powerhouses due to the low IQs but I think attaining GDP (PPP) per capita of 25% of the First World level (versus about 10% today) should be attainable for most African countries once they escape their Malthusian traps.

    Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa’s worries.

    Nothing against the rest of your comment, BTW, but I think you’ve still got a little bit of Anatoly’s misunderstanding in this last line. How about:

    iSteve posters may be racist because they understand Africa and Africans much better than you, Anatoly.

    Read More
  151. @Ed
    Niger, the country with the highest fertility rate in the world, cannot feed itself now. There has been UN declared famine to its immediate south in Northern Nigeria, the lion of Africa. There's a decent chance Nigeria experiences a major political cataclysmic event within the next 5 years.

    Getting aid to much of Africa is extremely difficult. Aid workers have pulled back in places like South Sudan after aid workers have been caught in the crossfire of raped.

    Having space on the continent means nothing if there are wars, poor land management or government. Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa's worries.

    Racist Isteve posters are the least of Africa’s worries.

    Nothing against the rest of your comment, Ed, but it just reads like you’ve still got a little bit of anon’s misunderstanding in this last line. How about:

    iSteve posters may be racist because they understand Africa and Africans much better than you, Anatoly.

    Read More
  152. @anon
    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.

    Anon, you are full of it with regard to this line:

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    Let me put this one in a truthful format instead of that lie (or misinterpretation, to put it charitably):

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa because it is full of Africans (with such worry because, though they don’t care as much what happens in Africa, their “leaders” are importing the people and problems to their own countries.)

    Oh, and nobody wants to have people starving and in misery anywhere on Earth, but we tried colonization already – haven’t gotten a lot of good reviews. We are taking the reviews to heart and staying out now, but we don’t want to become Africa. After 50 years on their own (except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa, and the current rear-guard retreat of the whites from The Republic of S. Africa) things are not developing per your comment above. Most of the place will revert to savagery without the help of somebody – I hope it IS the Chinese. That doesn’t bother me, as I’m not a necocon out to support the American Empire.

    Let the Chinese take up the Yellow Man’s burden, and let the white man just regroup for a century or two, then, later on, some of us can take off to another planet and leave the cntrl-left, Commies, Socialists, neocons, and general human trash behind. Don’t try to follow us – GPS will not work once you get much above the orbits of the satellites themselves.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    "except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa"

    Rhodesia wasn't a bread basket. It had a lot of mines and 5% of the population got to keep most of the tax and royalty revenue and live the good life. Zimbabwe did become a bread basket during the first decade of Mugabe's rule when he was sensible.
  153. jim jones says:
    @anon
    Finally some analysis. This blog gets very dumb when it comes to covering Africa because blacks are disliked by Steve and commentators. Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).

    What will likely happen is that Africa is big and can accommodate a few billion more people especially if growth is spaced out over 80 years and there are inputs of new technology and outside service providers like cheaper alternative fuel and Chinese construction contractors. It will mean a gradual improvement in the average standard of living in Africa.

    So Africa will look like Switzerland in a few years?

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    If you really think that is what is meant by "there will be a gradual increase in the average standard of living in Africa" then you shouldn't bother commenting.
  154. AndrewR says:
    @Pat Boyle
    I don't understand why you think biodiversity is the whole world's business? It sounds like you are winding up for a pitch to raise funds to send to Africa. I have no objection to anyone anywhere sending any kind of aid to Africans but I do object to taking tax money and sending it to Africa.

    There are two possible meaning for the "biodiversity of Africa". First it could be concern for endangered species. That seems legitimate to me. An overpopulated Africa will probably kill and eat a lot of rare species. Most would agree that should be avoided.

    The second meaning come from the fact that humans evolved in Africa. About thirty thousand years ago small groups split off from the main body and walked north. Those who went to Europe became Caucasians and those who went to East became Asians. Naturally the larger root population they stayed in Africa has greater genetic diversity than the small groups who left. This it seems to me is less significant than the argument to preserve endangered species.

    Obviously I’m referring primarily to non-human lifeforms but I do want all the various ethnic groups preserved too, although I think SSA’s total popolulation should remain under 100m.

    Read More
  155. nebulafox says:
    @Pericles
    Surely you mean 'woman'?

    I wish I could say I did. *Face slap*.

    The job hunt is clearly getting to me…

    Read More
  156. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Achmed E. Newman
    Anon, you are full of it with regard to this line:

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa (with such enthusiasm because a lot of commentators here would like to see bad things happen to black Africa).
     
    Let me put this one in a truthful format instead of that lie (or misinterpretation, to put it charitably):

    Most people rush to predict the apocalypse coming to Africa because it is full of Africans (with such worry because, though they don't care as much what happens in Africa, their "leaders" are importing the people and problems to their own countries.)
     
    Oh, and nobody wants to have people starving and in misery anywhere on Earth, but we tried colonization already - haven't gotten a lot of good reviews. We are taking the reviews to heart and staying out now, but we don't want to become Africa. After 50 years on their own (except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa, and the current rear-guard retreat of the whites from The Republic of S. Africa) things are not developing per your comment above. Most of the place will revert to savagery without the help of somebody - I hope it IS the Chinese. That doesn't bother me, as I'm not a necocon out to support the American Empire.

    Let the Chinese take up the Yellow Man's burden, and let the white man just regroup for a century or two, then, later on, some of us can take off to another planet and leave the cntrl-left, Commies, Socialists, neocons, and general human trash behind. Don't try to follow us - GPS will not work once you get much above the orbits of the satellites themselves.

    “except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa”

    Rhodesia wasn’t a bread basket. It had a lot of mines and 5% of the population got to keep most of the tax and royalty revenue and live the good life. Zimbabwe did become a bread basket during the first decade of Mugabe’s rule when he was sensible.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Well, this is just Wikipedia, so I'm not treating this as the whole truth, but:

    While as Rhodesia, the country was once considered the breadbasket of Africa. Today, Zimbabwe is a net importer of foodstuffs, with the European Union and United States providing emergency food relief as humanitarian aid on a regular basis. The nation has suffered profound economic and social decline in the past twenty years. Recently the agriculture sector has started to do well since the availability of expertise and machines has improved supported mainly by China.</i
     
    Note "China" in there. Maybe we are not in disagreement and writing of the same time period, but I thought the name Zimbabwe has been around since the 1980's or earlier.
  157. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @jim jones
    So Africa will look like Switzerland in a few years?

    If you really think that is what is meant by “there will be a gradual increase in the average standard of living in Africa” then you shouldn’t bother commenting.

    Read More
  158. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Bet on “some combination of the three”. Verily a “state of nature” straight out of Hobbes exists in the Dark Continent—which is getting darker by the minute in more ways than one.

    Read More
  159. @YetAnotherAnon
    "But it had the unintended consequences of reducing other STD’s. You might ask for proof."

    Don't know about the US, but UK STDs have been going up ever since the 1970s, and if AIDS campaigns had an effect it was only temporary.

    (Haven't time to research the figures, not as easy as it used to be since the "National" health service was split into four by devolved government. Here are the England figures 2007-2016, note that syphilis, eradicated in the 1970s, is back at 1949 levels.)

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/617025/Health_Protection_Report_STIs_NCSP_2017.pdf

    http://www.cnwl.nhs.uk/news/cnwl-expert-comments-public-health-englands-figures-showing-dramatic-rise-syphilis/

    Consider how bad the UK rates would be WITHOUT the Muslim population there!

    Read More
  160. @anonymous
    "except for the former holdout of Rhodesia, (former) breadbasket of Africa"

    Rhodesia wasn't a bread basket. It had a lot of mines and 5% of the population got to keep most of the tax and royalty revenue and live the good life. Zimbabwe did become a bread basket during the first decade of Mugabe's rule when he was sensible.

    Well, this is just Wikipedia, so I’m not treating this as the whole truth, but:

    While as Rhodesia, the country was once considered the breadbasket of Africa. Today, Zimbabwe is a net importer of foodstuffs, with the European Union and United States providing emergency food relief as humanitarian aid on a regular basis. The nation has suffered profound economic and social decline in the past twenty years. Recently the agriculture sector has started to do well since the availability of expertise and machines has improved supported mainly by China.</i

    Note “China” in there. Maybe we are not in disagreement and writing of the same time period, but I thought the name Zimbabwe has been around since the 1980′s or earlier.

    Read More
  161. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Amasius
    Don't underestimate White people's determination to feed these people. They're more determined to feed Africans than my mom is to feed every cat in the neighborhood. White civilization would have to collapse before the food shipments and medical intervention stopped.

    As long as there are a few million Whites organized somewhere, the manna will continue to fall. Like that new German who has 4 wives and 23 children and receives 390,000 dollars in benefits a year: Allah provided teeth, the dhimmi will provide bread.

    Actually, quite a few Syrians imposed themselves on Germany precisely for ‘free’ sets of new false teeth courtesy of the German taxpayer.
    More like ‘mama Merkel provides the bread, mama Merkel brings the teeth’.

    Read More
  162. @prole
    By the year 2050 Germany, France and Belgium will be Islamic States. Will be interesting if an Islamic Europe will continue to allow Blacks from sub-Sahara Africa to migrate into Europe...

    which agains leads to the strange thought that after all Merkel was doing something good for Europe by letting in all this Syrians and Pseudo-Syrians (e.g. any people from the MENA region). Better have millions of Arabs now, and claim you have done your duty in taking in people, than taking in millions of people from Ghana or Ivory Coast tomorrow.

    Read More
  163. lavoisier says: • Website
    @Charles Erwin Wilson

    But it likely will become our problem given the problems created by a do gooder Christian ethic
     
    You are substituting a caricature for a genuine Christian ethic. If you think that Leftists advocate their positions because they are "Christian" you need to lie down and take fever-reducing medications. The Left uses (or, more accurately, abuses) Christianity as a cudgel to beat the weak-minded into submission to their Marxist agenda. But its relationship to Christianity is tenuous, warped and denigrated.

    Don't saw off the limb you, and we all, sit on.

    I am not suggesting a direct connection between Christian ethics and the egalitarian fantasies of brain dead white liberals.

    But Christian ethics extended to the rest of the world ARE dangerous for the preservation of one’s own culture and one’s own people. Christian ethics are universal, and are noble on a theoretical level; but because of their universal nature they undermine the legitimate and essential selfishness critical to protecting your own people and your own nation first.

    Leftists see no distinction between their own tribe and the other with the exception that they are masochists, so in fact denigrate their tribe more than the other. Hence the white SJW who despises himself, his own people, and the civilization his ancestors created.

    But do not dismiss the very real damage that Christian ethics has played in bringing about the multicultural nightmare we all face. Look no further than the organizations bringing in all the refugees and you will invariably find a religious face to the fraud.

    A noble writer said it best:

    “If every man is my brother, I have no brothers.”

    Read More
  164. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Erik Sieven
    which agains leads to the strange thought that after all Merkel was doing something good for Europe by letting in all this Syrians and Pseudo-Syrians (e.g. any people from the MENA region). Better have millions of Arabs now, and claim you have done your duty in taking in people, than taking in millions of people from Ghana or Ivory Coast tomorrow.

    Sorry, but it doesn’t work like that.

    Read More
  165. […] Sailer nennt es „the World’s Most Important Graph„. Zu […]

    Read More
  166. alan2102 says:
    @Dr. W
    This population growth is *never going to happen.* The population pressure (and lack of arable land) will lead to famine, disease, and war far before these population levels are reached. (No exponential curve continues forever before the limit to growth is reached, and an ensuing collapse causes a regression to sustainability.)

    The rest of the world will try to help until resources are pulled to thin. Eventually, as Africa begins to consume itself in increasing intra-continental conflict, there will be a global blockade of the Mediterranean, orchestrated through merciless force against refugee craft. (There will be inadequate resources in Africa for any large-scale human trafficking through the Atlantic, so that escape route will be a non-issue, and we can count on Egypt and Saudi Arabia to remain very strong on the NE frontier. There may be some attempts to flee to India but, India will have its own problems.)

    The only question is whether this will happen before Europe and America overloads their life rafts before or after Africa undergoes its titanic cataclysm, that is, whether or not Europe and America are destroyed as well.

    “This population growth is *never going to happen.* The population pressure (and lack of arable land) will lead to famine, disease, and war…”

    Lack of arable land?!

    http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/10/24/africa-can-feed-itself-earn-billions-avoid-food-crises-unblocking-regional-food-trade

    “huge tracts of fertile land, around 400 million hectares, remain uncultivated”

    400 million hectares = ~1 BILLION acres

    Read More
  167. Real Time says:

    I will try to keep this short and to the point. The U.N. estimates are way overblown. They assume all factors remaining static. Nature abhors both a vacuum and an imbalance and sub Saharan Africa has both. Simply put, the dictators there can either control the population by decent and humane methods, including widespread sterilization and distributing birth control like candy to children, even putting it in the water supply, or nature will take care of it through natural means, i.e. famine, drought, plague, crop failure, other natural disasters, and war. The West must end all migration from Africa into Europe and the Middle East by whatever means necessary. Then all aid and trade between North and South must be predicated on these Black African nations first stabilizing and then reducing their population. Those that do get more aid and trade. Those that do not meet these targets get nothing. Period. The old carrot and stick approach. I realize the leftists and some Roman Catholics will scream bloody murder, but the alternative is to allow the entire world to be overrun with Black Africans who will bring their dystopia of tribal wars, famine, environmental destruction, crime, disease, etc., with them wherever they go. Either the West, and East too for that matter, stops this catastrophe cold while it is still in its formative stages or civilization and Christendom along with all non Black races of mankind will be finished within a century or less. It is just that simple. Either way I will thankfully not be around to see what happens. I just pray we all wake up before it is too late.

    Read More

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