The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
FBI: Homicides Down 6% in 2018 Over 2017
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used once per hour.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

The big rise in murders after The Establishment went nuts over Ferguson and Black Lives Matter in 2014 contributed to Donald Trump becoming President.

So far, crime is down a little under Trump’s first two years versus the sharp rise in Obama’s last two years. The FBI announced its official 2018 crime stats this week. From the FBI:

September 30, 2019
FBI Releases 2018 Crime Statistics
For the second consecutive year, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased when compared with the previous year’s statistics, according to FBI figures released today. In 2018, violent crime was down 3.3 percent from the 2017 number. Property crimes also dropped 6.3 percent, marking the 16th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

In 2018, there were an estimated 1,206,836 violent crimes. The estimated number of three violent crime offenses decreased when compared with estimates from 2017. Robbery offenses fell 12.0 percent, murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses fell 6.2 percent, and the estimated volume of aggravated assault offenses decreased 0.4 percent.

So homicides, the crime category that I pay most attention to, was down 6.2 from 2017, which saw a slight decline from 2016, after an increase of over 24% from 2014 to 2016. 1001 fewer people died of homicides in 2018 (15,498) than in 2017 (16,499).

So, to put this in crime scene terms, the new EMTs in the White House have stopped the bleeding, but the body politic isn’t close to being as healthy as he was before The Establishment’s giant own goal over Ferguson.

However, keep in mind that the number of homicides attributed to a year seems to go up over time as missing persons are found in shallow graves, as people in comas die, or as events get reclassified (e.g., the doctor who injected Michael Jackson with a powerful sleep drug was at times charged with a type of negligent homicide and at other times MJ’s death was considered not a homicide. I don’t recall the final outcome).

My guess is the decline from 2017 to 2018 will likely be seen as having been a little smaller in a year or two, just as the increase from 2014 to 2016 has grown from about 20% to over 24%.

The estimated volume of rape (revised definition) offenses increased 2.7 percent.

Nationwide, there were an estimated 7,196,045 property crimes. The estimated numbers for all three property crimes showed declines when compared with the previous year’s estimates. Burglaries dropped 11.9 percent, larceny-thefts decreased 5.4 percent, and motor vehicle thefts were down 3.1 percent.

Property crimes are way down from the bad old days. In 1988 I bought a new Honda Accord in the base model (no AC, no power windows or locks, no automatic transmission) mostly to avoid getting a radio, because having a radio in your car in Chicago in 1988 meant you’d spend a lot of money over the years getting your smashed windows replaced. Once my wife broke down and bought a $10 transistor radio so she could listen to music when driving. Within days a car window was smashed and the $10 radio was gone.

Here are the FBI’s 2018 Murder Offender numbers. They have the usual problems with crime statistics with not doing a good job disentangling non-Hispanic whites from Hispanics. Most other government statistics work hard to distinguish between the two, but crime statistics remain murky. (“Other” in the race column includes American Indians, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.)

Leaving out the 4,821 “Unknown” cases, blacks account for 54.9% of murder offenders.

Because the blacker a city, the less likely a homicide case is to be closed (snitches get stitches), these figures might underestimate the black percentage of murder offenders.

On the other hand, it could be that more blacks on average get arrested per murder, due to pack behavior among black criminals while murder tends to be a solitary vice for whites, so that could push how that stats should be interpreted in a different direction.

Here are the FBI’s stats on single offender / single victim murders (I think these are cases where the mystery of who-dunnit has been resolved);

Despite all the frenzy in the media about black bodies being in danger from people who think they are white, whites accounted for only 8.2% of the offenders in murders of blacks (leaving out the small number, 74, of Unknown races). And a fraction of the 8.2% of murders by blacks are committed by people who are identified as Hispanic, not white, in other government databases.

Blacks accounted for 91.2% of the murders of blacks.

Blacks accounted for 15.8% of the offenders in murders of whites (including a lot of Hispanics), just under twice the white (and/or Hispanic) contribution to the murders of blacks. So, the two races in 2018 generally do a pretty good job of keeping most of their homicidal urges within their own races.

From the Anti-Defamation League’s Hate on Display™ Hate Symbols Database:

Numeric Hate Symbols
13/52 and 13/90

The number 13 used in conjunction with either the number 52 or the number 90 is a shorthand reference to racist propaganda claims by white supremacists against African-Americans to depict them as savage and criminal in nature.

In this numeric shorthand, the number 13 refers to the purported percentage of the U.S. population that is African-American. The number 52 refers to the alleged percentage of all murders committed in the U.S. that are committed by African-Americans. Some white supremacists use the number 50 instead of 52.

So that 13/52 ratio is totally unscientific, you dumb racists. For 2018, according to FBI statistics, the ratio is 13/55.

That comes out to being blacks about 8 times as likely to commit homicide as the rest of the population, so not quite an order of magnitude.

 
Hide 70 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. One time we had our window smashed so thieves could steal our navigation system. These days with cell phones having navigation, nobody buys the Garvins anymore and fewer windows are smashed.

  2. It also appears that Russia’s murder rate (reported earlier this year at 4.9 per 100,000) has dipped below the US rate for the first time in several decades:

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
  3. Yeah, the 1980s in NYC — we had one of those car radios you pulled out of the slot and took inside with you. The last time our Civic got busted into, the thief made off with just my wife’s bowling ball and one bowling shoe.

  4. “missing persons are found in shallow graves,”
    That’s where they found Janice, in a shallow grave.

    • LOL: Autochthon
    • Replies: @Danindc
  5. ‘Blacks accounted for 15.8% of the offenders in murders of whites, just under twice the white contribution to the murders of blacks’

    It’s worth pointing out that there are around six times as many whites as there are blacks, so in a perfectly color-blind society, whites should kill blacks about six times as often as blacks would kill whites.

    Blacks not merely manage to make up that deficit to full parity with whites in interracial killings, but all but double the white rate. The average black would seem to be about ten times as likely to kill a white as the average white is to kill a black.

    That multiple would about correspond with other measures of black criminality as compared to other groups.

  6. anon[335] • Disclaimer says:

    New Orleans in the 70’s had a fantastic donut shop, Picou’s donuts. It was open 24 hours, operated by a black family in a black neighborhood, and had the best hot melt-in-your mouth donuts ever baked.
    Whites and blacks from all over the city came there at all hours to get donuts by the dozens.
    It was a dangerous place. You parked your car and literally ran to get inside the donut shop. They had a large bullet-proof glass counter from an old bank building with an old style revolving bullet-proof transaction window. You put your money in the tray on your side and they put the donuts in on their side and swung them around. I risked my life for those donuts more than once.
    All part of the adventure living with blacks.

  7. Only around 17% of homicides in Chicago are actually solved. Were the unsolved murders in Chicago committed by Poles or Chinese people? The national homicide clearance rates is only around 59%. If murderers get away with their crimes, they commit more murders.

    The recent Tekashi69 rapper trial reveals to what extent the “no snitching” culture has become normalized in the United States. Can you maintain a society when the popular culture no longer supports the rule of law?

    • Agree: Lot
  8. istevefan says:

    Blacks accounted for 15.8% of the offenders in murders of whites,

    According to the table 2,677 out of 3,315 Whites who were murder, or 81 percent, were murdered by other Whites. Liberals think this is a good talking point. You will often see in Twitter and elsewhere liberals parading this figure that 80% of Whites are killed by fellow Whites. They then claim Whites have a murder problem, and that the most dangerous people to Whites are other Whites.

    Yet this figure does not really tell us the murder rate. It only tells us that 80% of Whites who are murdered are killed by other Whites. This would be like stating that 95% of all Japanese murdered in Japan were killed by fellow Japanese. No reasonably informed person would conclude that the Japanese have a murder problem.

    However, if you look at this figure in the context of the USA being a multi-culti nation, then 80 percent is a bad number. In a multi-culit nation diversity is not a strength contrary to what we are told. The government goes to great lengths to keep the peace among groups. Hence the inverse relationship between increasing diversity and decreasing free speech.

    Therefore, if any one is going to be murdered at all, it would be for the best that they were murdered by their own racial/ethnic group. If one racial/ethnic group starts to poach upon a different group, you are likely to have repercussions that will expose the myth of diversity being our greatest strength.

    The irony of course with the US stats is that blacks come closest to the ideal situation in which over 90% of murdered blacks are killed by fellow blacks. Yet blacks, encouraged by the media, seem to believe others are preying upon them at alarming rates and have begun protesting in violent ways, see BLM and the murdered Dallas cops.

    Whites, who have a significant number of their own being killed, especially by blacks, are led to believe black-on-white crime is a figment of their imagination or a conspiracy theory. When in reality there really is something to that claim.

    Honestly, 1/5 Whites being murdered by non-Whites is terrible. Of course we want no murders, but if there are to be murders, it really should be as close to 100 percent in-group offenders as possible so as to keep the peace in this formerly cohesive nation.

  9. @Known Fact

    It’s amazing how quickly the car radio break-in culture changed from complete societal breakdown to not so bad.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
  10. Wilkey says:
    @Colin Wright

    It’s worth pointing out that there are around six times as many whites as there are blacks, so in a perfectly color-blind society, whites should kill blacks about six times as often as blacks would kill whites.

    No, because there are fewer blacks to kill. In a color-blind society the numbers should balance out. The percentage of whites murdered by blacks would be the same as the percentage of blacks murdered by whites.

    The reverse of your argument has often been made, as well: ‘Blacks kill whites more often than whites kill blacks because there are more whites to kill (or rape, rob, etc).’ But there are fewer blacks to commit such crimes.

    The other fallacy is that blacks are ‘four times as likely as the general population to commit murder.’

    The problem with phrasing it that way is that blacks are part of the “general population”. The only accurate comparison is of black murder rates to non-black murder rates.

    Blacks are 13% of the population but commit 55% of murders*. Non-blacks are 87% of the population but commit 45% of murders.

    You get: ((0.55)/(0.13)) (the black share of murders divided by the black share of the population) divided by ((0.45)/(0.87)) (the non-black share of murders divided by the non-black share of the population.

    ((0.55)/(0.13))/((0.45)/(0.87)) = 8.18.

    That is, blacks are 8.18 times as likely to commit murder as the non-black population. That assumes, of course, that unsolved murders are committed by blacks and non-blacks at rates similar to their share of solved murders. You could probably make an educated guess, based on the races of the deceased.

  11. Wilkey says:
    @Wilkey

    Blacks are 13% of the population but commit 55% of murders*. Non-blacks are 87% of the population but commit 45% of murders.

    I would add that “the number or murders committed by blacks” is not the same as “the number of black murderers.”

    More than one person can be charged with the murder of a single individual, and blacks seem disproportionately likely to commit a murder or murders with accomplices – gang murders, murders committed in the commission of a robbery, etc. When whites kill someone it seems more likely to be a solitary act.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  12. Oakland, California is quickly surpassing San Francisco as the broken car window capital of the Bay Area. In the last 6 months, half the people I know who have gone there have had either their window’s broken or their cell phone phone forcibly taken. The new ordinance limiting arrests to thefts above $750 has created a field day for every hard up druggie looking for a fix.

    Ironically, the suburbs seem safer than ever. I live in a town in the East Bay with 25k people in it. I don’t think we have had a murder in 10 years. We get criminals who steal FedEx Boxes from porches but home break ins are not common and car thefts are rare. I think it has a lot to do with the ubiquitousness of cameras and the inability to hide.

  13. Whiskey says: • Website

    Static analysis Steve. Murders and other crimes are skyrocketing now. Just not reported. Sooner or later cartels will take over CA, Az, TX and FL and run the places like Mexico. You will see kidnappings of middle class people for a few thousand dollars.

    That’s why gun grabber want your guns. So no one fights back back Win for women. Spot the Alphas is easy, and crushing betas the primary motivation is a plus!

  14. Lot says:

    Trump’s America:

    1. Record Low Unemployment for Every Race
    2. Record Low Foreclosures
    3. Record High Stock Market
    4. Tariffs and Sanctions on Anti-American Iran, Venezuela, and China
    5. Zero Wars Started, Zero New Failed States
    6. ISIS defeated
    7. Muslim Ban in Effect
    8. Hundreds of New Conservative Federal Judges
    9. Trans Pacific Partnership dead, Nafta renegotiated and improved
    10. Dozens of Obama executive orders reversed
    11. Public sector unions weakened, no more mandatory dues
    12. 3.5% mortgage rates
    13. Antitrust investigation of Facebook, $5 billion consumer privacy fine paid
    14. Refugee admissions down 85%
    15. Immigrant visas from the “Muslim Ban 5” of Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Yemen down 84%, “temporary” visas down 78%.
    16. Announced end to TPS program for Haiti, Somalia, and others will result in 100,000+ illegals losing their work permits and becoming deportable
    17. Obama’s “fleeing domestic violence” and “fleeing gangs” asylum rules repealed
    18. “Dreamer” amnesty mostly repealed

    Sign me up for 4 more years!

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Polynikes
  15. @Wilkey

    Does this number take into consideration that 40% of homicides in the United States are unsolved and that homicides where blacks are the victims are disproportionately unsolved?

    Has anyone looked into this phenomenon?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  16. @Lot

    Baby steps, but in the right direction.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  17. @Clifford Brown

    That’s what I was thinking. Steve is (wisely) being conservative when he states:

    That comes out to being blacks about 8 times as likely to commit homicide as the rest of the population, so not quite an order of magnitude.

    Given the under-reporting of black homicides (rather, the lower rates of closure) it’s reasonable to figure that the disparity handily exceeds an order of magnitude.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  18. Hhsiii says:
    @Known Fact

    Same here. Had my window smashed 3 or 4 times before I figured that one out. My dad’s car got swiped a few times.

    That just isn’t a thing in NYC anymore.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  19. Hail says: • Website

    On the delicate subject of the odds how likely a White American is to be a homicide-victim, by race of offender:

    Overcoming the Hispanic statistical hurdle the FBI seems intent on keeping up is not hard for a general picture. I would propose factoring Hispanics and Whites out by dividing the ‘White’ category by two, for both victims and offenders, half being European-Whites and half being Hispanics. This would imply a Hispanic homicide rate of 3x the White-European rate, which is plausible and elsewhere corroborated.

    As most people of any race are killed by others of the same race (up to 90-95% in Blacks’ case), I’d further propose 80% of the “Whites killed by Whites (/2)” category are White non-Hispanics killed by other White non-Hispanics, and the rest are killed by Hispanics or other miscellaneous immigrants.

    ___________________

    The FBI’s Table 2 gives 6,088 White-and/or-Hispanic homicide victims; dividing by two gives 3,044, a plausible estimate for White, full-European homicide victims.

    Total White homicide victims by race of killer, if known, 2018
    – 1,071 Whites killed by Whites [est.] (solved)
    – 268 Whites killed by Hispanics or misc. non-Asian immigrants [est.] (solved)
    – 257 Whites killed by Blacks (solved)
    – 62 Whites killed by Asians/Amerindians/Other/Unknown (solved)
    – 1,387 Whites killed in unsolved cases
    = 3,044 Total Whites killed [est.] (= half the White total in FBI Table 2; see above)

    Using a White population of 195 million Whites, we get:

    Odds of a White being killed by homicide, 2018
    – 0.55 in 100,000 [est.]: Likelihood a White was killed by a White (solved);
    – 0.14 in 100,000 [est.]: Likelihood a White was killed by a Hispanic or misc. (solved);
    – 0.13 in 100,000: Likelihood a White was killed by a Black (solved);
    – 0.03 in 100,000: Likelihood a White was killed by an Other/Unknown (solved);
    – 0.71 in 100,000: Likelihood of being a White homicide victim with murder unsolved.
    = Total: 1.56 in 100,000 White homicide victim rate

    –> In a metropolitan area with 1 million Whites, we would expect 10 to 20 Whites killed by homicide per year at these rates. With Blacks killing 2 or 3, Hispanics or miscellaneous non-Asian immigrants killing a further 2 or 3, Whites killing 10, and an Asian or an Amerindian killing 1 in some years.

    ___________________

    The total, implied White-on-White homicide rate of around 1.25 per 100,000 — derived above when factoring-in the likely racial split of the unsolved cases and the likely small upward bump via future reclassifications of cases to homicide as Steve describes in the post — finds corroboration in historical data for homicides by state: The traditionally Whitest states in upper New England, the upper Midwest, and the mountain-West, are traditionally down at 1-2 homicides per 100,000.

    At a life expectancy of 80, this White homicide-victim rate (1.56/100k) means that 0.125% of White Americans are expected to meet their end from homicide; this is a really small, small number. It would be as low as 0.08% in an all-White America. The number of Whites who meet their end from suicide, meanwhile, was long at something just below 1%, but by 2020 looks set to reach 1.5% (the ‘White Death’).

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Hail
  20. Lot says:
    @Hail

    Highest homicide rate outside of the old slave states? New Mexico at 8.0.

    That’s more than five times higher than South Dakota, NH, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Iowa and 4x or more higher than MN, Maine, Oregon, and Utah.

  21. i figure the murder rate will go down slowly while Trump is in office. once he’s out of office though, that’s less likely. still, 13 do 55. at minimum. it could be higher. interesting how the murder rate ratio is increasing. it used to be 7 to 1, now it’s up to 8 to 1. other crimes are probably increasing in ratio too.

    i’m surprised to see the rape rate go up 3%. Epstein getting in a few last ones, before going to the big house? oh, was that too soon? speaking of that, maybe the rape rate went up because now anything can be rape, if the woman wants it to be. how many women did Trump “rape” by now. so should authorities distinguish between real rape and democrat voting single woman regret sex “rape”?

    property crime will keep going down long term due to technology. if the US switched to no cash, all electronic, as some nations in europe have, you could get to a point where bank robberies don’t exist. it’s already pretty much impossible to hit the vault, 99% of bank robbers just take the registers then leave.

    does FBI maintain a separate category for catfishing? bitcoin theft? transexual suicide? i bet all those categories are skyrocketing.

    most interesting statistic, probably not in the FBI numbers: violent crime rate of concealed carry holders. it’s below the rate for everybody else in the nation – below the rate for police officers. those are your safest citizens, BY FAR. by a HUGE margin. and of course, democrats want to take that away. guys who legally carry a handgun every day who aren’t police officers, are your best citizens by a mile.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    , @Known Fact
  22. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    Same methodology as above but for Black homicide victims:

    Total Black homicide victims by race of killer, if known, 2018
    – 117 Blacks killed by Whites [est.] (solved)
    – 117 Blacks killed by Hispanics or misc. non-Asian immigrants [est.] (solved)
    – 2,600 Blacks killed by Blacks (solved)
    – 91 Blacks killed by Asians/Amerindians/Other/Unknown (solved)
    – 4,482 Blacks killed in unsolved cases
    = 7,407 Total Blacks killed

    Using a base population of 40 million Blacks, we get:

    Odds of a Black being killed by homicide, 2018
    – 0.3 in 100,000 [est.]: Likelihood a Black was killed by a White (solved);
    – 0.3 in 100,000 [est.]: Likelihood a Black was killed by a Hispanic or misc. (solved);
    – 6.5 in 100,000: Likelihood a Black was killed by a Black (solved);
    – 0.2 in 100,000: Likelihood a Black was killed by an Other/Unknown (solved);
    – 11.2 in 100,000: Likelihood of being a Black homicide victim with murder unsolved.
    = Total: 18.5 in 100,000 Black homicide victim rate

    (Good chance this ends up exceeding 20/100k, depending on how many of Unknown Race victims were Black and how many past cases get reclassified as homicides.)

    –> In a metropolitan area with 1 million Blacks, there would be around 160 to 210 homicides with Black victims expected in a given year at these rates. Other Blacks would kill 150 to 190 of these, with Whites killing 5 to 10, Hispanics and miscellaneous non-Asian immigrants killing a further 5 to 10, and 1 killed by an Asian or Amerindian.

    ________________

    At a life expectancy of 80, the above-calculated Black homicide-victim rate (18.5/100k) means that 1.5% of Black Americans are statistically expected to meet their end from homicide (lifetime), down from as high as 2.5-3%[?] during the highest years of Black crime in the 1980s and 1990s. The number of Blacks who meet their end from suicide, meanwhile, has been at 0.4% (lifetime expected) for years.

    Data suggests 2.5-3% of South African Blacks living today are expected to die from homicide (lifetime) (based on 2010s-era homicide rates), which is also down from their peak of as high as 5% (lifetime expected) in the mid 1980s and mid 1990s.

    (Not exactly apples-to-apples, but the US military lost 405,000 servicemen, dead, from Dec. 1941 to August 1945, of 16 million men mobilized, a death rate of 2.5%.)

  23. @Reg Cæsar

    Which of these ‘baby steps’ best accounts for the impeachment drive?

    Or is it just a thirst for power and vengeance on the part of Dems?

    How has Trump become vulnerable? All the work of the MSM?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  24. @prime noticer

    Property crime? No one in the USA can hold a candle to your average public official in China…

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
  25. in pennsylvania i haven’t had my car broken into since 2001. my parents haven’t had their house broken into since 1993. so i agree, in most places, property crime is going down.

    however when i was living in vegas between 2002 and 2006, and visiting california a lot too, my friends were still getting their cars broken into in LA in 2006 and 2007. and the general crime rate in vegas was higher than most places. the police killed about 3 to 4 people per month. so i’m guessing property crime and the random background crime level is still higher in the southwest.

    “Highest homicide rate outside of the old slave states? New Mexico at 8.0.”

    using FBI data from 2 or 3 years ago, New Mexico was the worst state in America when you factored the violent crime rate and property crime rate together. i wonder why. maybe because it’s full of mexicans? has anybody here even driven thru New Mexico? it’s like a vast, expansive version of West Virginia, except it’s mexicans and american indians living in shacks.

    • Replies: @S. M. Coulton
    , @ATBOTL
  26. Danindc says:

    Steve,

    What would be msm reaction if Trump tweeted out this FBI press release with something like “heading in the right direction but some groups can do better!!!”

    Total meltdown or is he in a position now where he can pretty much say anything?

    He should do it. People need to know just how violent blacks are…

  27. Danindc says:
    @Known Fact

    Macgruber (the greatest comedy ever) has a running gag where he is constantly pulling his Blaupunkt out of his Miata.

    Did you ever find The one-legged bowling bandit?

  28. Danindc says:
    @Ron Mexico

    All that planning of the murder so little thought to body disposal

  29. Not to worry, after a few policy tweaks, blacks will cease to be more predisposed to violence and we should look forward to living next door to them in peace and harmony.

  30. @Rick Johnsmeyer

    It appears the best way to drop the murder rate is to move one’s state closer to the Canadian border.

  31. eah says:

    If this wasn’t so ridiculously stupid it would be funny.

    Los Angeles: You can be a cop if you’re a gang member, but not a conservative?

    News broke Saturday September 28th that the LAPD would be opening an investigation into a recruitment ad for their department that simply stated- “Choose your future! LAPD is hiring!”- which somehow appeared on the Breitbart news website.

    For anyone who isn’t familiar with how online advertising often works, it goes like this.

    You’re a cop looking for a job. You take a peak at some job postings. The sites you’re looking on will often drop what’s called a “cookie” into your browser, which allows that job posting to follow you around the internet, appearing on other third party websites.

    Apparently the chief is too busy attacking Breitbart to do a little research as to how this magical thing called the “internet” works.

    Apparently the LAPD was cowed by libtards who think advertising on breitbart.com is beyond the pale and/or anyone who reads breitbart.com is unfit to be a police officer: “discredit LAPD”.

    • Replies: @eah
  32. countenance says: • Website

    In spite of the murder rate in the United States declining overall, it is increasing in heavily black cities. If you backed them out, the American murder rate would be sharply declining.

  33. The interracial numbers I’m interested in are: Perpetrator previously unknown to victim. Or: Murders committed during the course of another felony. I’ll bet that black-on-white figure rises dramatically.

  34. Thanks Steve.

    Tiny quibble:

    “The Establishment’s giant own goal over Ferguson”

    The Establishment got a bunch of people it didn’t care for killed while massively and permanently promoting The Narrative. That’s not an “own goal”. That’s a “two-fer”. Or maybe a “double play”, to keep it in sports analogy.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  35. @Clifford Brown

    I can’t think of a single officeholder who ever achieved more tangible results than Mayor Giuliani (with solid follow-up from Bloomberg despite his little liberal obsessions). My dad lived in NY when it was a zoo, and I worked there after it had been cleaned up — in a job that depended heavily upon safe streets, parks and subways. Like night and day.

    As the commenters from California are noting, it can all go either way — depending on what people are willing to tolerate.

  36. @prime noticer

    NPR and other liberal organs are obsessed with the murder of trannies — apparently a new hate-crime frontier. CT meanwhile has passed a law prohibiting use of the “gay/trans panic defense” in cases of violent attack.

  37. David says:

    Under Trump, Washington DC has gone from 23rd safest city in the world to the 7th, a change in ranking of 16 places, a big improvement.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/these-are-the-safest-cities-in-the-world-right-now

  38. EH says:
    @Colin Wright

    US is five-eighths non-H. White, more than one-eighth Black, so less than 5x, or closer to 4x for the prime crime ages.

    OTOH the B-W difference in per-capita commission of homicide is much bigger than the difference between Blacks and the population as a whole, and for interracial homicide and other violent crimes, the B-W per-capita rates differ by more like a factor of 25. (From the yearly DOJ victimization surveys, B-W rapes are entirely B on W, a 3000- to 100000- times difference.)

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  39. @Mr McKenna

    Or is it just a thirst for power and vengeance on the part of Dems?

    “Thirst for power” and “Democratic Party” are redundant.

  40. @Wilkey

    ‘No, because there are fewer blacks to kill…’

    Well, lessee.

    I’m left-handed. There are ten times as many right-handers as there are left-handers. I should be ten times as likely to be killed by a right-hander as I would be by a left-hander. On the other hand, if I go out and kill someone, my victim is ten times more likely to be right-handed than he is left-handed.

    …I think you’re right. Or, to put it differently, I was wrong.

  41. @Wilkey

    ‘…When whites kill someone it seems more likely to be a solitary act.’

    There is also the question of who is more likely to be a serial killer.

    I’d guess your black killer is more likely to be someone who engages in a pattern of violence that fairly often results in him killing somebody — but also is fairly likely to never do so. That is to say, he assaults random strangers for fun, expresses rage by loosing off streams of unarmed gunfire, beats up girlfriends, and generally carries on in a manner that results in a number of possible outcomes, including sometimes but not always a death or two. It’s also likely to never produce a fatality, or to lead to Gavontis being locked up until his violent years are well behind him.

    Killing someone — or at least engaging in behavior likely to result in killing someone — is relatively normal behavior for young black males. For whites (or anyone else, really) murdering people is decidedly deviant behavior. So your isolated serial killing would almost certainly account for a large share of murders committed by whites than he would murders committed by blacks.

  42. @Mr McKenna

    ‘That’s what I was thinking. Steve is (wisely) being conservative when he states:

    That comes out to being blacks about 8 times as likely to commit homicide as the rest of the population, so not quite an order of magnitude.

    Given the under-reporting of black homicides (rather, the lower rates of closure) it’s reasonable to figure that the disparity handily exceeds an order of magnitude.’

    The figure might well be somewhere around eight.

    I make a morbid hobby of looking at various measures of black criminality in various places: here, Britain, victim surveys, statistics for various cities and states, etc.

    Whatever the measure, with remarkable regularity blacks come out as between six and ten times more likely to commit a violent criminal act than the rest of the population. So ‘around eight’ is probably correct.

    ‘Lower rates of closure’ could be slippery. After all, non-blacks who commit crimes seem to take greater care not to get caught. So it’s perfectly possible a disproportionate number of your unclosed killings of blacks were committed by whites. I’m not suggesting that’s the case — merely that it’s a possibility.

  43. SMK says: • Website

    Racially, the catergory “Hispanic” causes nothing but confusion and ignorance, and should be abolished. What percentage of aggravated assaults, robberies, rapes, murders, etc. putatively committed by “whites” were actually committed by Mestizos and pure Amerindians? And what about Muslims? Were the 9/11 hijackers -who committed by far the worst act of terrorism and mass muder in U.S. history- defined as “white”? And so, too, Fort Hood, Boston, Orlando, etc.

  44. @Almost Missouri

    ‘The Establishment got a bunch of people it didn’t care for killed while massively and permanently promoting The Narrative. That’s not an “own goal”. That’s a “two-fer”. Or maybe a “double play”, to keep it in sports analogy.’

    On the other hand, ‘the Narrative’ may have lost a lot of subscribers in the course of all that.

  45. Rob McX says:

    There must have been a kind of circular trade in car radios, people buying stolen radios because they’d had their own stolen.

  46. @Known Fact

    Someone in NYC broke into my car to steal an Ikea desk still in its flat-pack. I guess there is some sort of poetic justice in that.

  47. @Colin Wright

    What a moron. The statistics actually indicate whites are more likely to murder blacks. Amazing considering the median age of blacks is closer to the criminal range (20s) whereas whites in America are geriatric (median age mid-50s).

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  48. eah says:
    @eah

    “social media review”

  49. @prime noticer

    As predicted, crime in New Mexico peaks in the southern and southeastern portions of New Mexico, which are also the whitest parts of that state, and the only areas where they still form a majority.

    Whites are responsible for most of the crime in America. Particularly Anglos.

    • Replies: @S. M. Coulton
  50. @Hhsiii

    That just isn’t a thing in NYC anymore.

    Theft of car radios isn’t a thing hardly anywhere anymore because newer car radios require a code to operate after being disconnected from the battery.

    Car theft is down too because of “smart” keys and “smarter” ignitions system that will start the car if the key is in your pocket.

  51. Art Deco says:
    @Colin Wright

    It’s worth pointing out that there are around six times as many whites as there are blacks, so in a perfectly color-blind society, whites should kill blacks about six times as often as blacks would kill whites.

    No. If there was a random relationship between race, homicide perpetration, and homicide victimization, blacks would account for 13% of the homicides and their objects would be other than black 87% of the time. Others would account for 87% of the homicides and select blacks 13% of the time.

    0.13 x 0.87 = 0.87 x 0.13.

  52. Art Deco says:

    (e.g., the doctor who injected Michael Jackson with a powerful sleep drug was at times charged with a type of negligent homicide and at other times MJ’s death was considered not a homicide. I don’t recall the final outcome).

    The FBI murder statistics include aggressive manslaughter, but not negligent manslaughter. (I doubt delayed death and bodies discovered in later years account for many murders).

    • Replies: @Jane Plain
  53. Elli says:

    A child aged 4 or under was recorded as committing murder, which is astonishing. Murder with intent to kill, and not say, accidentally firing a gun, or firing a gun but not understanding the consequences.

    There is a child 8 or under also.

  54. Olorin says:

    1488 minus 1352 is 136.

    1488 plus 1352 is 2840.

    136 + 2840 = 2976.

    Those numbers must surely be racist/antisem too.

    Someone quick call the Mega Group!!! I mean ADL!!!!

    https://www.mintpressnews.com/mega-group-maxwells-mossad-spy-story-jeffrey-epstein-scandal/261172/

  55. ATBOTL says:

    Based on being a police blotter junkie my whole life, I would say a very large fraction of perps in “white on black” murders are Hispanic. Very large fraction. Real white on black murders are very, very rare. Many of these involve black and white codefendants, often one white person involved with a group a blacks killing another black. They virtually never involve law abiding blacks killed by a random white predator, as many black on white murders are.

    Can we get a break down of where “white on black” murders happen? I suspect places like the Bronx, Florida, Texas and California are hotbeds of these murders. If a Puerto Rican kills a Dominican in the Bronx, would that be classified as a “white on black murder?”

  56. Polynikes says:
    @Lot

    He’s not perfect, but I’ll take it. 3 years ago those were fringe issues in the mainstream narrative. Hell, at the time I considered getting immigration reform (downward) into the national conversation a victory.

  57. ATBOTL says:
    @prime noticer

    My impression as someone who travels a lot is that property crime is higher in SW states. The people who lives in these states give more warnings and tell more stories. I notice places like shopping center parking lots and hotel parking lots are more disordered in the SW, with beggars, winos and sketchy loiters that wouldn’t be tolerated in a decent neighborhood on the East Coast.

  58. @S. M. Coulton

    ‘What a moron. The statistics actually indicate whites are more likely to murder blacks…’

    Comment is superfluous.

  59. eah says:

  60. eah says:

    College Football Player” — where be da white wimenz?

  61. @S. M. Coulton

    Just in case anybody thinks I was being sarcastic after this infantile little shit, “eah”, dropped an “LOL” on my comment, these are the demographics of the most criminal counties in New Mexico as represented by that map:

    Demographics of Bernallilo County, New Mexixo:

    The racial makeup of the county was 70.75% White, 2.77% Black or African American, 4.16% Native American, 1.93% Asian, 0.10% Pacific Islander, 16.07% from other races, and 4.22% from two or more races. 41.96% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race.

    Demographics of Curry County:

    The racial makeup of the county was 72.40% White, 6.86% Black or African American, 1.00% Native American, 1.78% Asian, 0.13% Pacific Islander, 14.08% from other races, and 3.75% from two or more races. 30.38% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race.

    Demographics of Chavez County, New Mexico:

    As of the 2000 census,[9] there were 61,382 people, 22,561 households, and 16,085 families residing in the county. The population density was 10 people per square mile (4/km²). There were 25,647 housing units at an average density of 4 per square mile (2/km²). The racial makeup of the county was 71.95% White, 1.97% Black or African American, 1.13% Native American, 0.53% Asian, 0.06% Pacific Islander, 21.25% from other races, and 3.12% from two or more races. 43.83% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race.

    Demographics of Lea County, New Mexico:

    As of the 2010 census, there were 64,727 people, 22,236 households, and 16,260 families residing in the county.[11] The population density was 14.7 inhabitants per square mile (5.7/km2). There were 24,919 housing units at an average density of 5.7 per square mile (2.2/km2).[12] The racial makeup of the county was 75.0% white, 4.1% black or African American, 1.2% American Indian, 0.5% Asian, 0.1% Pacific islander, 16.6% from other races, and 2.6% from two or more races. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 51.1% of the population.[11] In terms of ancestry, 9.3% were German, 7.6% were Irish, 7.2% were English, and 6.3% were American.[13]

    As we can see, the most criminal counties in New Mexico are generally majority white, with very few (<4%) Natives. Native Americans are largely confined to the Western part of New Mexico, which is the least criminal region.

    The southeastern part of New Mexico is roughly half white (Angloo + Irish), half Hispanic and black, being essentially the same racial stock as North Texas (which is notoriously criminal). Bernadillo County in central New Mexico is the only other county in deep red, and is, unsurprisingly, majority Caucashit, with a smidgen of Natives.

    Northeastern New Mexico is majority white, but those counties only average roughly 5000 inhabitants, with no cities of any kind, and very old inhabitants. The very bottom counties in Southwestern New Mexico are also 60%White/40% nonwhite, but its mostly retirees living in temperate high altitude towns.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @eah
  62. @EH

    ‘…From the yearly DOJ victimization surveys, B-W rapes are entirely B on W, a 3000- to 100000- times difference.)’

    That is odd. You’d think there’d be at least a few people out there with really strange tastes. After all, bestiality, etc isn’t entirely unknown.

    …maybe it’s a question of racial domination. Potential white rapists of blacks are intimidated. Did peasants ever rape noblewomen in the Middle Ages? Indios in Old Mexico rape criollos?

    One suspects not — but these questions should be investigated. After all, who rapes whom could tell you a lot about a society.

    • Replies: @EH
  63. @Joe Stalin

    Given that it’s China, should we assume that most or all of the gold bars are fake? Otherwise it’s really straining credulity to believe he could amass that many. Heck, that would pay my home maintenance costs for years.

  64. eah says:
    @S. M. Coulton

    Hey dude, sorry you got butthurt by my little “LOL” — I’ll put you on my IGNORE list to prevent that in the future.

    You may be right about crime in NM, or the specific part of NM you mention: I don’t know and don’t really care (so I won’t bother/waste time checking).

    But you are now part of an internet meme: people who (seemingly) fail to grasp the concept of per capita— if Whites are a majority in any particular area, then without considering any other factors it’s expected that they will be responsible for the majority of crime in that area — however this does not mean they have the highest per capita crime rates of all people (races/ethnicities) living around there (although they may).

    In the vast majority of the country, both Blacks and Hispanics (‘Mexicans’) have higher violent crime rates (per capita) than Whites (this is especially true of Blacks) — and this is probably true for many types of property crime as well.

    • Replies: @S. M. Coulton
  65. @eah

    If the most criminal areas of New Mexico are consistently whiter than the less criminal areas of New Mexico, it is a damning implication for white nationalist wiggers. Kind of like how America just keeps getting less criminal as it gets less white.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  66. @Art Deco

    What do you think Amber Guyger did, aggressive or negligent? I can’t make up my mind.

    I do think she was zonked from working a 14-hour shift. (That’s not an excuse, it is a fact that lack of sleep can interfere with functioning.) Also evidence was given that other tenants had gone to the apartment above or below by mistake.

  67. EH says:
    @Colin Wright

    Beyond rapists having a remarkable unanimity of taste, the explanation is probably simpler: you can’t rape the willing. Many attempted rapes may have been foiled in this manner.

    Also, there is substantial overlap in the distributions between what Black women consider tolerably rough and what White women consider forcible rape. The differences in the ranges of usual thinking, morals and drives between Black women and White women are huge; they’re practically aliens to each other, but each projects their own nature into their beliefs about how the other group is. White women can’t grasp how sexually willing the vast majority of Black women are but STD rates tell the story.

  68. @S. M. Coulton

    ‘If the most criminal areas of New Mexico are consistently whiter than the less criminal areas of New Mexico, it is a damning implication for white nationalist wiggers. Kind of like how America just keeps getting less criminal as it gets less white.’

    Well, I moved to a virtually all-white area, and I feel that I’m less likely to be the victim of a crime. If you feel differently, you can always move to Baltimore and see what happens.

    It is interesting. The unemployment rate around here is above the national average, there are a lot of obviously poor people, and there are even some vagrants.

    Worse, the police department is just about half the size proportionately of the ‘diverse’ community I moved from. Yet, although the town and the surrounding area would have a population of about sixty thousand, in the last year we had no murders, no rapes, and no armed robberies. A fair amount of less serious crime — but I can handle the thought that if I go to a dive bar I might get into a fight or if I leave the weed-whacker out in the front yard overnight it might not be there in the morning.

    But you go right ahead. Act on your beliefs. Move to Baltimore instead.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS