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From CNN, here are national exit polls of interesting demographics. I presume they’ve been fixed in post-production to no longer predict a Hillary win.

As of the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Trump holds a 0.2% lead in the national popular vote counting. But, judging from 2012, that’s likely to turn into a slight Clinton edge by the point California finishes its leisurely tally of mail-in ballots by sometime before Thanksgiving. The NYT data guys are predicting Hillary will end up with a 1.1% popular vote edge, and they’ve been quite accurate with their vote count predictions this evening.

Race:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.27.52

Keep in mind with exit polls that the % of the voters who fall in different demographic buckets are kind of contrived. The exit pollsters have to have a model of which precincts to send pollsters to based on their expectations of turnout.

Class/Education:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.32.51

Hillary did poorly among Independent men:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.34.06

Gender:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.35.26

Marriage:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.36.39

Marriage by sex:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.37.25

Religion:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.40.05

Immigrants:

Screenshot 2016-11-09 02.41.00

And here’s an NYT graph piece on trends in exit polls since 2004.

 
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  1. Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.

    Also, black men are smarter than black women.
    There’s a 10% non-dumb, if not “talented”.

    29% of Hispanic vote is an amazing attainment. With fair press/TV coverage that could have easily been 40%.

    “Asian” is too much of an umbrella term.
    I’d like to know the stats for high-IQ people alone, Japanese Korean and Chinese.

    The unmarried women statistic tells us a strong factor of support for Democrats is bitterness. As you Sailer have often remarked, that’s the go-to party for people who feel bad and want somebody to blame for their problems.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I could see 3/4 of NE Asians alone going for Hillary. All the Asians I know supported her, and Asians in general tend to be in white liberal states and vote like a white liberal. Not much diff btwn high IQ Indians in America, and high IQ NE Asians in America, in that regard.

    Who knows which candidate the riff-raff in their respective homelands would vote for if they had the opportunity, but it's not really important.
    , @Marcus
    Black women tend to be more ethnocentric than their menfolk, legacy of African polyandry? Within the "Asian" category, I wouldn't say those are the only high-IQ people, we have largely skimmed off the top with South Asian immigrants, I had a coal black-skinned south Indian classmate who ended up at MIT.
    , @Truth

    Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.
     
    Yes, they invested their time and gas money in casting a ballot for a corrupt clown and blowhard with no political experience. Genius is an underrated thing.
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  2. The Sailer Strategy, though nobody calls it that. I guess a prophet really is without honor in his own country.

    He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you’d think it was 4.

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married. ;)

    Trump won college-educated men. I think meninism is a thing now.

    He won white women. Race trumps gender, which makes sense–partly inbred extended family and all that.

    Steve, what are you going to do to celebrate? Take a week off and write a book on golf course architecture?

    Read More
    • Replies: @JSM
    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married.

    And, White women TOO!!!

    Whiskey, SUCK IT!!
    , @anonymous
    Another interesting fact: Nonwhite college grads voted 71% for Hillary, exactly the same proportion as Jews.
    He outperformed McCain by +2% among Jews even
    , @Corvinus
    "He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too. 24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad."

    Who are conservative or conservative leaning voters, or who were other than Hillary in their voting. That is key here.
    , @George
    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don't actually look that good for the "Sailer Strategy". Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the 'Latino' population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.
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  3. This was an interesting piece about Chinese immigrants supporting Trump:

    http://supchina.com/2016/11/03/many-first-generation-chinese-immigrants-supporting-donald-trump/

    The author is anti-Trump, but the article is interesting. It would be ironic if Trump’s margin of victory came partly from immigrants who have no investment in America’s future, despise blacks and Latinos, and are transparently gaming America’s education system and social benefits. Maybe liberals should have considered a point system after all.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jason Liu
    It is accurate. Every young Chinese man I know voted Trump. It's not all about AA though. A lot of us feel that the extreme left is creating an atmosphere that stifles/demonizes success and achievement, which most Asians either are or aspire to be.

    Kaiser Kuo is still an old blowhard though. His comparison of Trump supporters to the Red Guard is retarded. The SJWs resemble the Red Guard far more, in action, ideology and nesting grounds (on campus). Not a word about that from him.
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  4. I’d love to see the comparison vs Romney.

    The voting percentage of white people seems low at 58%. But the turnout must have been yuge. Actually, according to this, neither the white percent or the turnout was higher than Romney. Seems bogus to me actually.

    http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

    It seems that other groups were marginally more supportive of Trump than Romney, but all are >= 65% opposed to Trump. (more than the white racial bloc voting.) Their maintained but somewhat lessened antipathy is noted.

    At >70% support, the core of the white identity support is from white working class men, which has been well noted. The university system does an effective job of propagandizing, superior to high school alone. There is also the fact that their incomes have stagnated or declined while the others have increased. No wonder they are pissed.

    Seems like this election is partly a testament to Citizenism and partly to the pissed-offedness of the white working class male, and also the fact that Hillary is not black.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    This was a razor thin margin, almost certainly due to the divisive Democrat primary.

    I think we can clearly see that the neoconservative establishment came very close to sinking Trump with the college-educated cohort. Every neocon should be handed their walking papers today.

    Before the explicit tapes came out, I was expecting a 10 point victory. I got most of the states right, but I did think Trump would win Nevada.

    He also almost won Minnesota, and actually won the state if we discount the votes of the Invaders from the Horn of Africa.
    , @Anon
    What mattered were the swing states.
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  5. How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey’s October surprise.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Another Canadian
    My wife remarked early last night that the pre-election polling was so different from the emerging reality that the system of election reporting was rigged all along. The biggest casualty of this election was the credibility of the national media in the minds of casual voters. Expect to see damage control retconning of reality to begin in earnest.
    , @bomag

    somebody somewhere called it off
     
    Don't ascribe to conspiracy what can be explained by less prosaic reasons, in this case self selection: pollsters talk to "their people", those who aren't "their people" make a point not to talk to pollsters.
    , @Perplexed
    Bill Mitchell on Twitter has been explaining the polls all along—manipulated by sample size and reweighting (often grotesquely) of the components. He's been a rock.
    , @res
    I wonder if this election will change polling practices (e.g. weighting). Here is a pre-election article about the LA Times poll: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-schnur-latimes-usc-poll-problems-20161107-story.html

    Another article about the LA Times poll stating that the difference was due to their weighting (see the Ernie Tedeschi link): http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/the-virtues-of-the-l-a-times-poll/

    And to speak to Steve's "fixed" comment, here is a money quote from your link:

    'Our polls were dramatically off,' he added. 'And let me add, today's exit poll had Clinton winning almost everywhere at 5 pm. No doubt they've 'adjusted' it.'
     
    , @bored identity



    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes.

    They intentionally inflated Hillary results.

     

    Quite plausible.

    The real question is how many times it has be done before on the smaller scale.
    , @Anon
    "How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters"

    The thing is they did it willfully and maliciously to suppress votes from Trump supporters.

    "It's over, just stay home."
    , @Wilbur Hassenfus
    IIRC clinton's people cancelled the victory fireworks a couple of days before the election.

    There's no way they were bothered by how crass and repulsive it would have been, so my guess is they may have been getting very bad news from internal polling.
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  6. “Editorial

    Donald Trump’s Revolt

    A heedless desire for change puts America on a precipice.”

    This from the NYT sidebar – a wild guess they are not talking about decades of reckless mass immigration, undocumented lawbreaking and catastrophic demographic change!

    Read More
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  7. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    My wife remarked early last night that the pre-election polling was so different from the emerging reality that the system of election reporting was rigged all along. The biggest casualty of this election was the credibility of the national media in the minds of casual voters. Expect to see damage control retconning of reality to begin in earnest.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  8. @Peter Akuleyev
    This was an interesting piece about Chinese immigrants supporting Trump:

    http://supchina.com/2016/11/03/many-first-generation-chinese-immigrants-supporting-donald-trump/

    The author is anti-Trump, but the article is interesting. It would be ironic if Trump's margin of victory came partly from immigrants who have no investment in America's future, despise blacks and Latinos, and are transparently gaming America's education system and social benefits. Maybe liberals should have considered a point system after all.

    It is accurate. Every young Chinese man I know voted Trump. It’s not all about AA though. A lot of us feel that the extreme left is creating an atmosphere that stifles/demonizes success and achievement, which most Asians either are or aspire to be.

    Kaiser Kuo is still an old blowhard though. His comparison of Trump supporters to the Red Guard is retarded. The SJWs resemble the Red Guard far more, in action, ideology and nesting grounds (on campus). Not a word about that from him.

    Read More
    • Replies: @M
    Trump is portrayed in a lot of the sympathetic media as speaking up for the un-aspirational classes against an elite that doesn't offer much for the low aspirations folk who want to work a standard job for standard pay outside of conformist PC corporate culture and just "get by" financially rather than achieve.

    In your experience, does that come across to the highly aspirational young Chinese, or do they not really see it like that at all? If so, what do they think about it? And in general how much it the attitude among young Chinese more or less "Low aspiration folk deserve what's coming to them" vs sympathy for people who don't have lots of ambition?
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  9. If I may say so, it seems that the Sailer strategy is actually more successful than anyone ever thought.

    Trump, partly because of his personal foibles, did not succeed in maximising the white vote; he increased turnout among Amerikaaners (I’m using Moldbug’s classification now, not Derb’s), but only at the cost of scaring off Optimates. A different candidate could potentially have done much better at increasing the GOP’s white vote share. Thus Trump will probably not win the popular vote.

    HOWEVER, while his overall share of the white vote was not that good, he changed which sections of whites were voting GOP in such a way that the electoral college is now massively in the GOP’s favour. Moreover, he seems to have done this essentially by fluke.

    Now imagine what a Sailerist candidate with fewer perceived negatives, the GOP behind him, and a professional ground game could achieve. (Of course, no such candidate exists, but it does vindicate the theory).

    Read More
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  10. @Anonym
    I'd love to see the comparison vs Romney.

    The voting percentage of white people seems low at 58%. But the turnout must have been yuge. Actually, according to this, neither the white percent or the turnout was higher than Romney. Seems bogus to me actually.

    http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

    It seems that other groups were marginally more supportive of Trump than Romney, but all are >= 65% opposed to Trump. (more than the white racial bloc voting.) Their maintained but somewhat lessened antipathy is noted.

    At >70% support, the core of the white identity support is from white working class men, which has been well noted. The university system does an effective job of propagandizing, superior to high school alone. There is also the fact that their incomes have stagnated or declined while the others have increased. No wonder they are pissed.

    Seems like this election is partly a testament to Citizenism and partly to the pissed-offedness of the white working class male, and also the fact that Hillary is not black.

    This was a razor thin margin, almost certainly due to the divisive Democrat primary.

    I think we can clearly see that the neoconservative establishment came very close to sinking Trump with the college-educated cohort. Every neocon should be handed their walking papers today.

    Before the explicit tapes came out, I was expecting a 10 point victory. I got most of the states right, but I did think Trump would win Nevada.

    He also almost won Minnesota, and actually won the state if we discount the votes of the Invaders from the Horn of Africa.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Trump might still beat Romney's number of votes, neocons and fake polls had an effect though. 2012 was seen as close, in reality this one should have been seen so and boosted turnout. Congratulations to pollster Richard Baris, called the states right and always had it as a close election.

    You need to sort out your indoctrination centres, I mean universities.
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  11. @SFG
    The Sailer Strategy, though nobody calls it that. I guess a prophet really is without honor in his own country.

    He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you'd think it was 4.

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we'll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married. ;)

    Trump won college-educated men. I think meninism is a thing now.

    He won white women. Race trumps gender, which makes sense--partly inbred extended family and all that.

    Steve, what are you going to do to celebrate? Take a week off and write a book on golf course architecture?

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married.

    And, White women TOO!!!

    Whiskey, SUCK IT!!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Truth
    Now Sheila calm, down, I think baking a nice green-bean casserole right now would make you feel better.
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  12. Uhm what if trump actually walks back on most of his promises, he has sort waffled on the deporting 11 million mexicans and Muslim ban thing and wall thing already.

    Read More
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  13. I don’t think you’ve mentioned this, but the Wall Street Journal had a very good article showing Trump benefiting from immigration:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/places-most-unsettled-by-rapid-demographic-change-go-for-donald-trump-1478010940

    It’s an excellent article. Written before the election, the consequences of rapid demographic changes in certain rural areas predicted the swing in Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Not true though. California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have undergone far more extensive (and expensive) illegal immigration over the past 20 years than Rust Belt states. These mostly turned out for Clinton.

    Rust Belt states voted on the basis of TPP, having experienced the economic blight of NAFTA. Immigration is still a blip on the radar in the rural midwest.

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  14. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @people's republic
    Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.

    Also, black men are smarter than black women.
    There's a 10% non-dumb, if not "talented".

    29% of Hispanic vote is an amazing attainment. With fair press/TV coverage that could have easily been 40%.

    "Asian" is too much of an umbrella term.
    I'd like to know the stats for high-IQ people alone, Japanese Korean and Chinese.

    The unmarried women statistic tells us a strong factor of support for Democrats is bitterness. As you Sailer have often remarked, that's the go-to party for people who feel bad and want somebody to blame for their problems.

    I could see 3/4 of NE Asians alone going for Hillary. All the Asians I know supported her, and Asians in general tend to be in white liberal states and vote like a white liberal. Not much diff btwn high IQ Indians in America, and high IQ NE Asians in America, in that regard.

    Who knows which candidate the riff-raff in their respective homelands would vote for if they had the opportunity, but it’s not really important.

    Read More
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  15. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    somebody somewhere called it off

    Don’t ascribe to conspiracy what can be explained by less prosaic reasons, in this case self selection: pollsters talk to “their people”, those who aren’t “their people” make a point not to talk to pollsters.

    Read More
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  16. The only category of whites Trump didn’t won is college educated women.

    Read More
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  17. @people's republic
    Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.

    Also, black men are smarter than black women.
    There's a 10% non-dumb, if not "talented".

    29% of Hispanic vote is an amazing attainment. With fair press/TV coverage that could have easily been 40%.

    "Asian" is too much of an umbrella term.
    I'd like to know the stats for high-IQ people alone, Japanese Korean and Chinese.

    The unmarried women statistic tells us a strong factor of support for Democrats is bitterness. As you Sailer have often remarked, that's the go-to party for people who feel bad and want somebody to blame for their problems.

    Black women tend to be more ethnocentric than their menfolk, legacy of African polyandry? Within the “Asian” category, I wouldn’t say those are the only high-IQ people, we have largely skimmed off the top with South Asian immigrants, I had a coal black-skinned south Indian classmate who ended up at MIT.

    Read More
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  18. The breakdown of the vote by various groups seems to follow the pattern established in the last several elections. No real surprises. I suppose the only difference this time was turn-out: more whites turned out (especially blue-collar/lower middle-class whites), fewer blacks, and little increase among hispanics. Trump got 58% of the white vote, better than Romney (I think), but hardly stellar, and hardly indicative of some new electoral alignment.

    Read More
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  19. Don’t know if its been said, but in PA Green Party candidate Jill Stein received about 50,000 votes and Hillary lost PA by about 60-70k votes.

    Thank you, Jill Stein! Keep doing what you’re doing! Just like Nader in FL in ’00.

    Just had to give a big respectful shoutout to where it was due.

    Read More
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  20. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    Bill Mitchell on Twitter has been explaining the polls all along—manipulated by sample size and reweighting (often grotesquely) of the components. He’s been a rock.

    Read More
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  21. I like those NYT graphics. I wish they could either incorporate turnout in them or create more graphics just for turnout.

    If I read the race graphic correctly a little over 60% of whites voted for Trump. Does that seem like enough for the results we saw? I wonder if there was a Shy Trump Supporter effect in the exit polls as well.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Robert Hume
    Yes, good question. Was there a shy Trump supporter effect in the exit polls as well.

    A complicated way to check would be use the exit polls to calculate the total vote for Trump and for Hillary by summing over total numbers in each ethnic/sex etc category weighted by polled probability of voting for each candidate. Then compare to the actual number of votes for each candidate. If the answers don't agree then something is wrong; and the sign would suggest whether there was a shy Trump effect or not.
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  22. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    I wonder if this election will change polling practices (e.g. weighting). Here is a pre-election article about the LA Times poll: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-schnur-latimes-usc-poll-problems-20161107-story.html

    Another article about the LA Times poll stating that the difference was due to their weighting (see the Ernie Tedeschi link): http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/the-virtues-of-the-l-a-times-poll/

    And to speak to Steve’s “fixed” comment, here is a money quote from your link:

    ‘Our polls were dramatically off,’ he added. ‘And let me add, today’s exit poll had Clinton winning almost everywhere at 5 pm. No doubt they’ve ‘adjusted’ it.’

    Read More
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  23. It appears that Jill Stein had no effect in any state.
    It also appears that the Utah guy had zero effect in the states where he was on the ballot.
    It appears that Gary Johnson might have had an effect in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.
    The effect he appears to have had was to syphon enough votes to reduce the Trumpnami; not enough effect to reverse it.

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  24. It’s difficult to read too much into the demographic data from this election, simply because Trump faced a campaign of vilification and abuse unprecedented in America political history. It wasn’t just the usual liberal bias in the news of the sort we’re accustomed to – the news shows were open Clinton commercials and the late night talk shows gave themselves over completely to bashing Trump. Hollywood campaigned against Trump, as did Wall Street. The so-called “conservative movement” and much of the Republican party campaigned vigorously against Trump – more vigorously than they did against Obama in 2012 in fact.

    This was a 1964 type election year, with the difference that Goldwater/Trump won this time.

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    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Trump got hit with everything, a win is a historic achievement. He even got not one but two bogus candidates to siphon off voters.
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  25. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes.

    They intentionally inflated Hillary results.

    Quite plausible.

    The real question is how many times it has be done before on the smaller scale.

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  26. From CNN, here are national exit polls of interesting demographics. I presume they’ve been fixed in post-production to no longer predict a Hillary win

    I wouldn’t be too sure of this. I was watching last night and, even after Hillary had conceded, CNN still had Trump at something like 246. For 8-10 minutes, but what seemed like an eternity, they simultaneously had the ticker “Clinton has called to concede” and still had Trump with 20+ points short of 270.

    I think that nicely encapsulates what is going on at CNN. Van Jones provided some hilarity, free of charge: people are “afraid of breakfast” and having to tell their children what happened. I hope he has unclutched his pearls…

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    • Replies: @Yep
    Lewandoski shut Van Jones down. It was funny to watch.
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  27. […] by demographics from exit polls are here. I am really interested to see some final numbers on these. My guess is white turnout was higher […]

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  28. Hispanics in Florida are Puerto Rican and Cuban. They do not like Mexicans and central amerucans. They have different gangs and do not like competing for jobs with illegals.

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  29. muslim: n/a

    The fake Fear and real Loathing in United Apostates of America.

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  30. For the last graphic about immigrants, how can they be born a US citizen but still be an immigrant? Am I missing something?

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    "Immigrant" is a fuzzy term. It applies both before and after naturalization. Alien/citizen should be the distinction made.

    Of course, since no state has allowed aliens to vote in federal elections since 1926, there should be no alien vote to report!
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  31. @SFG
    The Sailer Strategy, though nobody calls it that. I guess a prophet really is without honor in his own country.

    He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you'd think it was 4.

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we'll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married. ;)

    Trump won college-educated men. I think meninism is a thing now.

    He won white women. Race trumps gender, which makes sense--partly inbred extended family and all that.

    Steve, what are you going to do to celebrate? Take a week off and write a book on golf course architecture?

    Another interesting fact: Nonwhite college grads voted 71% for Hillary, exactly the same proportion as Jews.
    He outperformed McCain by +2% among Jews even

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  32. Exit shows Trump winning men and Clinton winning women by equal margins. It also has women as 52% of voters. The combination of these three numbers would be a Clinton win.

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  33. Romney:
    White 59%
    Black 6%
    Hispanic 27%
    Asian 26%

    Trump:
    White 58%
    Black 8%
    Hispanic 29%
    Asian 29%

    Lessons?

    1. The Sailer Strategy worked. Establishment Republican Whites cast protest votes for Johnson and McMullin, but Trump’s new White voters (former Democrats and former non-voters) made up for it, giving Trump a larger White margin over Clinton than Romney won against Obama.

    2. Nationalism is the best outreach. Trump did better than Romney among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

    The Republicans have two choices: embrace nationalism, or lose elections.

    Senator Kirk, the only Republican senator who was not reelected, had the worst NumbersUSA score of any Republican senator running for re-election this year.

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    • Replies: @greysquirrell
    Less Blacks voted for Hillary than Al Gore or Obama and as you mention Trump did better with Blacks than Romney and better than McCain.

    From USA Today : " Predictions that blacks, women and Millennials would not vote Trump proved largely untrue"

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/09/predictions-blacks-women-and-millennials-would-not-vote-trump-proved-largely-untrue/93535292/
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  34. Mormons redeemed themselves a bit I guess

    Were you born a US citizen is telling, though something that we all know. Of course, we can allow for a bit of natural conflict of interest rather than pure enmity.

    But recall the constant harping of historic Hispanic voters who had never voted before. Literally flooding the country with new people just to vote and tip elections

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  35. The only electoral downside to nationalism:

    Romney:
    Jews 30%

    Trump:
    Jews 24%

    Trump did better than Romney among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

    Trump did almost as well as Romney among Whites, despite well-funded spoilers Johnson and McMullin.

    Trump did significantly worse than Romney among Jews.

    Trump did better with Asians and Hispanics than with Jews.

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    • Replies: @Lot

    Trump did significantly worse than Romney among Jews.
     
    Probably, but let's get some precinct data to check this. What are some super jewish areas? Kiryas Joel, parts of Brooklyn, maybe Boca Raton and Valley Village, home of Ben Shapiro and Steve's PO Box?

    If we want to check gays, there is a giant mostly gay retirement village in Florida called Wilton Manors. Per wikipedia:

    Wilton Manors has approximately 1270% more resident gay couples per capita than the national average of 1.1% of the population.
     
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  36. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    The Media have no clothes.

    The study of media behavior in the 2016 election cycle deserves close scrutiny and tons of research.

    It’s like the UVA story. The main interest went from the story(bogus) to the story-tellers.

    We cannot let this go. Just like Rolling Stone and Erdely had to be hounded totally as frauds, the story of how the media acted in 2016 has to be written big. The media establishment from journalism schools to newspapers to networks must be exposed as one globo-network.

    Someone needs to write the definitive book on this. It may be the most important story to come out of this election.

    http://townhall.com/tipsheet/cortneyobrien/2016/11/09/nicole-wallace-all-the-polls-were-wrong-n2243381

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  37. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    “How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters”

    The thing is they did it willfully and maliciously to suppress votes from Trump supporters.

    “It’s over, just stay home.”

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  38. @SFG
    The Sailer Strategy, though nobody calls it that. I guess a prophet really is without honor in his own country.

    He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you'd think it was 4.

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we'll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married. ;)

    Trump won college-educated men. I think meninism is a thing now.

    He won white women. Race trumps gender, which makes sense--partly inbred extended family and all that.

    Steve, what are you going to do to celebrate? Take a week off and write a book on golf course architecture?

    “He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too. 24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad.”

    Who are conservative or conservative leaning voters, or who were other than Hillary in their voting. That is key here.

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  39. For Karl Rove, the ‘base’ was Evangelicals.

    For HBD, the base is race.

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  40. @utu
    How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PVdUuw5q

    I strongly believe that somebody there had good polls and knew exactly what was happening. for weeks before election. Most polls were not the mistakes. They intentionally inflated Hillary results. They were intentional to take away the steam from the supporters of Trump locomotive. Then they hoped they could steal it but somebody somewhere called it off in the week Comey reopened investigation. Possibly action of Comey was to let media readjust to the reality and give them a perfect explanation for why suddenly polls started showing Trump high. Trump was high all along. But people could blame it on Comey's October surprise.

    IIRC clinton’s people cancelled the victory fireworks a couple of days before the election.

    There’s no way they were bothered by how crass and repulsive it would have been, so my guess is they may have been getting very bad news from internal polling.

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  41. “The NYT data guys are predicting Hillary will end up with a 1.1% popular vote edge, and they’ve been quite accurate with their vote count predictions this evening.”

    Gary Johnson.

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  42. @Anonym
    I'd love to see the comparison vs Romney.

    The voting percentage of white people seems low at 58%. But the turnout must have been yuge. Actually, according to this, neither the white percent or the turnout was higher than Romney. Seems bogus to me actually.

    http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

    It seems that other groups were marginally more supportive of Trump than Romney, but all are >= 65% opposed to Trump. (more than the white racial bloc voting.) Their maintained but somewhat lessened antipathy is noted.

    At >70% support, the core of the white identity support is from white working class men, which has been well noted. The university system does an effective job of propagandizing, superior to high school alone. There is also the fact that their incomes have stagnated or declined while the others have increased. No wonder they are pissed.

    Seems like this election is partly a testament to Citizenism and partly to the pissed-offedness of the white working class male, and also the fact that Hillary is not black.

    What mattered were the swing states.

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  43. @SFG
    The Sailer Strategy, though nobody calls it that. I guess a prophet really is without honor in his own country.

    He got 30% of Latinos, which is interesting. 30% of Asians, too.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you'd think it was 4.

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we'll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married. ;)

    Trump won college-educated men. I think meninism is a thing now.

    He won white women. Race trumps gender, which makes sense--partly inbred extended family and all that.

    Steve, what are you going to do to celebrate? Take a week off and write a book on golf course architecture?

    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don’t actually look that good for the “Sailer Strategy”. Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the ‘Latino’ population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.

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    • Replies: @AP

    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don’t actually look that good for the “Sailer Strategy”. Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand.
     
    He also won 58% of white votes, vs. Romney winning 59% of white votes. Trump didn't get a higher white vote percentage, he just changed the white electorate - losing college-educated whites (particularly women), but compensating for this loss by getting a lot of uneducated whites to vote for him.

    Ironically, the real reason Trump won wasn't because he got a higher % of the white vote, the difference was that Trump getting slightly higher minority percentages plus lower minority turnout was enough for the win. If Romney had Trump's numbers among blacks, Hispanics and Asians (in both % vote and turnout) he would have won too. Minority behavior is the difference that gave Trump the election.

    I guess the Democrats are gonna have to run a smart, charismatic black person to win.

    , @anon
    mona atisha is chaldean
    aka iraqi catholic
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

     

    No comment.
    , @Hidden Cat

    ''The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.''
     
    oh baloney. The male Farook got a 3 year certificate from the local Community College, for a government job inspecting (iirc) restaurants. Hardly technical work, let's be blunt. He was born in the US, in Chicago. His PARENTS immigrated in the 70s under a "diversity" program.

    The wife, who he brought in, had attended a Pakistani dental hygiene school, DM photographed it. A very dilapidated old building. She did not finish the course, and wore full burka in the US and did not, that I ever read, work.

    Farook sr, the father of the male shooter, was pretty much a ne'er do well. He sometimes did long haul trucking jobs for a neighbor. IMO NONE of them, parents, 4 children nor the spouses should have been here.
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  44. Primary Directive: Trump needs to relentlessly deport the thirty million illegals in this country and reset the demographic balance.

    This simple act of law enforcement will solve a myriad of political issues.

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Primary Directive: Trump needs to relentlessly deport the thirty million illegals in this country and reset the demographic balance.

    This simple act of law enforcement will solve a myriad of political issues.
     
    More important even than the 2018 and 2020 elections will be the 2020 census. That will affect the electoral map for 2022-30.
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  45. Trump outperformed Romney with Rust Belt whites. And Hillary underperformed Obama among blacks in the same states. That’s flipped Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and solidified Ohio right there. We were told over and over black vote for Hillary would approach Obama’s, which defied common sense.

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  46. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    You don’t get it. We reject this future for the country we built. We are going to have a MORE European country in the future. Deporting the illegals is a first step to this easily achieved future.

    The non-Europe-ization of America is a policy. It’s not a natural outcome: it is being foisted upon us. We can change the policy!

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  47. @Steve from Detroit
    From CNN, here are national exit polls of interesting demographics. I presume they’ve been fixed in post-production to no longer predict a Hillary win

    I wouldn't be too sure of this. I was watching last night and, even after Hillary had conceded, CNN still had Trump at something like 246. For 8-10 minutes, but what seemed like an eternity, they simultaneously had the ticker "Clinton has called to concede" and still had Trump with 20+ points short of 270.

    I think that nicely encapsulates what is going on at CNN. Van Jones provided some hilarity, free of charge: people are "afraid of breakfast" and having to tell their children what happened. I hope he has unclutched his pearls...

    Lewandoski shut Van Jones down. It was funny to watch.

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  48. Steve I hope you can come up with your own estimates for some of these groups. I don’t believe for a second Trump did that well with blacks and hispanics, nor do I believe he only got 58% of the white vote.

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    • Replies: @Anonym
    Steve I hope you can come up with your own estimates for some of these groups. I don’t believe for a second Trump did that well with blacks and hispanics, nor do I believe he only got 58% of the white vote.

    It does seem hard to believe now that you mention it. Kind of like the polls being manipulated. Alternate figures would be good to see.
    , @Travis
    Trump probably did better with Blacks and hispanics than the exit polls indicate. Blacks generally oppose amnesty and open borders, because they know it hurts them most.
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  49. There’s a way to do multi-racial nationalism. Trump needs to look to Genghis Khan and Great Leader Yew for inspiration and guidance.

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  50. @John Gruskos
    The only electoral downside to nationalism:

    Romney:
    Jews 30%

    Trump:
    Jews 24%

    Trump did better than Romney among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

    Trump did almost as well as Romney among Whites, despite well-funded spoilers Johnson and McMullin.

    Trump did significantly worse than Romney among Jews.

    Trump did better with Asians and Hispanics than with Jews.

    Trump did significantly worse than Romney among Jews.

    Probably, but let’s get some precinct data to check this. What are some super jewish areas? Kiryas Joel, parts of Brooklyn, maybe Boca Raton and Valley Village, home of Ben Shapiro and Steve’s PO Box?

    If we want to check gays, there is a giant mostly gay retirement village in Florida called Wilton Manors. Per wikipedia:

    Wilton Manors has approximately 1270% more resident gay couples per capita than the national average of 1.1% of the population.

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  51. @George
    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don't actually look that good for the "Sailer Strategy". Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the 'Latino' population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.

    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don’t actually look that good for the “Sailer Strategy”. Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand.

    He also won 58% of white votes, vs. Romney winning 59% of white votes. Trump didn’t get a higher white vote percentage, he just changed the white electorate – losing college-educated whites (particularly women), but compensating for this loss by getting a lot of uneducated whites to vote for him.

    Ironically, the real reason Trump won wasn’t because he got a higher % of the white vote, the difference was that Trump getting slightly higher minority percentages plus lower minority turnout was enough for the win. If Romney had Trump’s numbers among blacks, Hispanics and Asians (in both % vote and turnout) he would have won too. Minority behavior is the difference that gave Trump the election.

    I guess the Democrats are gonna have to run a smart, charismatic black person to win.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    There was more 3rd and 4th party voting in 2012, so it makes more sense to look at margin rather than total.

    But, yeah, going downscale among whites was in part an Electoral College strategy to pick up Rust Belt Electoral Votes where Romney had done poorly among whites.

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  52. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    After looking at the popular vote totals, Hillary currently has about 59,600,000, and Trump 59,389,000. Trump’s number is pretty close to that of Romney (60,933,000) and McCain (59,948,000), so there doesn’t seem to be much shift in numbers voting Republican there.

    The real story is in Hillary’s numbers. Obama got 65,915,000 in 2012, and 69,498,000 in 2008. Hillary couldn’t make the Democrats show up at the polls for her, or else they were pulling levers for third party candidates. Johnson had 4,042,000, and Stein had 1,207,000.

    After looking at the totals for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Johnson being on the ballot took enough votes away from Hillary that it flipped the election to Trump. Michigan and Wisconsin were very close, and Pennsylvania somewhat close. If those states had gone to Hillary, she’d have won with 276 electoral votes, and Trump would have lost with 231. Johnson being on the ballot really screwed Hillary over.

    Johnson took 100K votes in Wisconsin, and Trump and Clinton were only about 18K votes apart. In Michigan, Johnson took 172K, and Trump and Clinton were only 13K votes apart. In Pennsylvania, Johnson took 142K, and Trump and Clinton were only 68K apart.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I can see crediting 90% of Stein's vote to Hillary, but Johnson/Weld?
    , @RadicalCenter
    We will probably need more like seventy million votes to re-elect Trump once the Dems get going on new-voter registration among the endlessly burgeoning Mexican / Latino colonies within our country over the next four years.

    We need to register more white voters, as well to reach and persuade more assimilated English-speaking Asians and Latinos (and there are more to be reached).

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  53. Hey Steve — black turnout in cities like Milwaukee seems to be way down. Do you think using section 8 to send minorities out of cities made getting out the vote harder for Democrats? Seems like it would be easier to get people to the polls if they are basically all in one big neighborhood… Be kinda funny if sending diversity to the suburbs elected Trump.

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  54. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Kerry got 59,028,000 in 2004, and if you compare Hillary’s 59,600,000 votes, she dropped the total Democratic vote back down to the traditional white Democratic level, smashing Obama’s winning coalition with a wrecking ball. But I’m not sure a non-corrupt and in-good-health Hillary would have won, since she didn’t do much better than Kerry.

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  55. @John Gruskos
    Romney:
    White 59%
    Black 6%
    Hispanic 27%
    Asian 26%

    Trump:
    White 58%
    Black 8%
    Hispanic 29%
    Asian 29%

    Lessons?

    1. The Sailer Strategy worked. Establishment Republican Whites cast protest votes for Johnson and McMullin, but Trump's new White voters (former Democrats and former non-voters) made up for it, giving Trump a larger White margin over Clinton than Romney won against Obama.

    2. Nationalism is the best outreach. Trump did better than Romney among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

    The Republicans have two choices: embrace nationalism, or lose elections.

    Senator Kirk, the only Republican senator who was not reelected, had the worst NumbersUSA score of any Republican senator running for re-election this year.

    Less Blacks voted for Hillary than Al Gore or Obama and as you mention Trump did better with Blacks than Romney and better than McCain.

    From USA Today : “ Predictions that blacks, women and Millennials would not vote Trump proved largely untrue”

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/09/predictions-blacks-women-and-millennials-would-not-vote-trump-proved-largely-untrue/93535292/

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    It's true that plenty of millenials voted Trump, including, apparently, a majority of college-"educated" white millenials and a bigger majority of non-college-"educated" white millenials.

    It's definitely NOT true, however, that Africans were willing to vote Trump on much of a meaningful scale. So far I'm seeing exit polls showing that 13% of black African men voted Trumo and only a few percent of black African women. Almost the same mindless racial block-voting as usual from our perpetually angry and dimwitted friends.
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  56. @Jason Liu
    It is accurate. Every young Chinese man I know voted Trump. It's not all about AA though. A lot of us feel that the extreme left is creating an atmosphere that stifles/demonizes success and achievement, which most Asians either are or aspire to be.

    Kaiser Kuo is still an old blowhard though. His comparison of Trump supporters to the Red Guard is retarded. The SJWs resemble the Red Guard far more, in action, ideology and nesting grounds (on campus). Not a word about that from him.

    Trump is portrayed in a lot of the sympathetic media as speaking up for the un-aspirational classes against an elite that doesn’t offer much for the low aspirations folk who want to work a standard job for standard pay outside of conformist PC corporate culture and just “get by” financially rather than achieve.

    In your experience, does that come across to the highly aspirational young Chinese, or do they not really see it like that at all? If so, what do they think about it? And in general how much it the attitude among young Chinese more or less “Low aspiration folk deserve what’s coming to them” vs sympathy for people who don’t have lots of ambition?

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    • Replies: @Jason Liu
    Almost all Chinese-Americans live in the cities. People don't really think about the Rust Belt, so I don't think there's much sympathy or hatred. Some Chinese may realize that Trump panders to unambitious workaday whites, but also acknowledge that Trump could dismantle the stifling PC culture in urban areas.
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  57. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Constant drumbeat from the Tribe: whites fear of losing their homeland (nation they invented, fought for, built) is pathology i.e. mental illness.

    Friedman today:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/opinion/were-near-the-breaking-point.html?ref=opinion

    There is nothing that can make people more angry or disoriented than feeling they have lost their home. For some it is because America is becoming a minority-majority country and this has threatened the sense of community of many middle-class whites, particularly those living outside the more cosmopolitan urban areas.

    THEY NEVER VOTED FOR A MAJORITY-MINORITY COUNTRY! IN FACT THEY WERE ASSURED THAT THE HART-CELLAR ACT OF 1965 WOULD NOT RESULT IN THAT OUTCOME.

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    • Replies: @celt darnell
    Yes, but look Friedman's opening paragraph:

    I began election night writing a column that started with words from an immigrant, my friend Lesley Goldwasser, who came to America from Zimbabwe in the 1980s. Surveying our political scene a few years ago, Lesley remarked to me: “You Americans kick around your country like it’s a football. But it’s not a football. It’s a Fabergé egg. You can break it.”
     
    Now what happened to Zimbabwe in the 1980s that could have led to Goldwasser immigrating to America?

    Oh yes, I remember now, 1980 was the year Rhodesia became Zimbabwe and everything went to sh*t shortly thereafter.

    Hmm, I wonder if Goldwasser was a supporter of Ian Smith or Robert Mugabe?

    Faberge egg indeed.

    I tell you, this stuff writes itself.

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  58. @res
    I like those NYT graphics. I wish they could either incorporate turnout in them or create more graphics just for turnout.

    If I read the race graphic correctly a little over 60% of whites voted for Trump. Does that seem like enough for the results we saw? I wonder if there was a Shy Trump Supporter effect in the exit polls as well.

    Yes, good question. Was there a shy Trump supporter effect in the exit polls as well.

    A complicated way to check would be use the exit polls to calculate the total vote for Trump and for Hillary by summing over total numbers in each ethnic/sex etc category weighted by polled probability of voting for each candidate. Then compare to the actual number of votes for each candidate. If the answers don’t agree then something is wrong; and the sign would suggest whether there was a shy Trump effect or not.

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  59. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @AP
    I don't think you've mentioned this, but the Wall Street Journal had a very good article showing Trump benefiting from immigration:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/places-most-unsettled-by-rapid-demographic-change-go-for-donald-trump-1478010940

    It's an excellent article. Written before the election, the consequences of rapid demographic changes in certain rural areas predicted the swing in Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

    Not true though. California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have undergone far more extensive (and expensive) illegal immigration over the past 20 years than Rust Belt states. These mostly turned out for Clinton.

    Rust Belt states voted on the basis of TPP, having experienced the economic blight of NAFTA. Immigration is still a blip on the radar in the rural midwest.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    No, legal and illegal immigration is drastically affecting towns all across the Plains and Midwest, including once-quiet/safe/beautiful Kansas and Nebraska.

    There are more than a million Mexicans in the Chicago area alone, and sadly Mexers and other "Latinos" are surging into wonderful Grand Rapids, Michigan, as well.

    Somali Muslims are already a problem in Minnesota.

    Etc.

    , @AP
    The difference is that California, Nevada etc. are very used to Hispanics - but not Iowa and Wisconsin.
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  60. @Lot
    Steve I hope you can come up with your own estimates for some of these groups. I don't believe for a second Trump did that well with blacks and hispanics, nor do I believe he only got 58% of the white vote.

    Steve I hope you can come up with your own estimates for some of these groups. I don’t believe for a second Trump did that well with blacks and hispanics, nor do I believe he only got 58% of the white vote.

    It does seem hard to believe now that you mention it. Kind of like the polls being manipulated. Alternate figures would be good to see.

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  61. @Shine a Light
    For the last graphic about immigrants, how can they be born a US citizen but still be an immigrant? Am I missing something?

    “Immigrant” is a fuzzy term. It applies both before and after naturalization. Alien/citizen should be the distinction made.

    Of course, since no state has allowed aliens to vote in federal elections since 1926, there should be no alien vote to report!

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  62. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Neocons said GOP needs more outreach to non-white voters.

    Okay, but then, why oppose Trump’s appeal to the working class and less educated when non-whites tend to be poorer and less educated?
    How can anyone out-reach to non-whites as the tool of Wall Street? As such, Romney failed not only with non-whites but with white working class.

    Also, would Neocons have been okay with more out-reach to Palestinian-American voters?

    Oops, that’s where the outreach is no-no for Neocons. So much for principles. Such outreach would undermine GOP’s bitchery to Israel.

    The whole out-reach thing was merely a means to prevent the rise of white consciousness so that the group that whites will out-reach to most is the Zionists.

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    • Agree: Opinionator
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    We need to BOTH boost white identity, solidarity, voter registration and turnout

    AND

    reach out extensively to assimilated English-speaking Asian and Hispanic Americans who work.
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  63. Would Trump’s victory been considerably bigger is the polls hadn’t predicted sure win for Hillary?

    Did some Trump supporters just stay home?

    Or, did the over-optimistic pro-Hillary polling have a hare-and-tortoise effect of keeping her supporters at home out of over-confidence?

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  64. @Anonymous
    Primary Directive: Trump needs to relentlessly deport the thirty million illegals in this country and reset the demographic balance.

    This simple act of law enforcement will solve a myriad of political issues.

    Primary Directive: Trump needs to relentlessly deport the thirty million illegals in this country and reset the demographic balance.

    This simple act of law enforcement will solve a myriad of political issues.

    More important even than the 2018 and 2020 elections will be the 2020 census. That will affect the electoral map for 2022-30.

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  65. Marine Le Pen taking France would be an epic follow-on from Brexit, and now Trumpenvictory. I’m not getting my hopes up, though.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you’d think it was 4.

    How many voted for Hillary? More than 65%? It would be a hoot if Jews broke for cankles more than yellows or browns.

    Another interesting fact: Nonwhite college grads voted 71% for Hillary, exactly the same proportion as Jews.

    Haha, so they did out-Puerto-Rican the Puerto Ricans. Hilarious!

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married.

    And, White women TOO!!!

    Whiskey, SUCK IT!!

    *Buys a round for the White Wymminz*

    The only category of whites Trump didn’t won is college educated women.

    In other words, they’re made, not born. Further repudiation of Whiskey-ism.

    The breakdown of the vote by various groups seems to follow the pattern established in the last several elections. No real surprises. I suppose the only difference this time was turn-out: more whites turned out (especially blue-collar/lower middle-class whites), fewer blacks, and little increase among hispanics. Trump got 58% of the white vote, better than Romney (I think), but hardly stellar, and hardly indicative of some new electoral alignment.

    In other words, further repudiation of the always-impending hispanic electoral juggernaut.

    The so-called “conservative movement” and much of the Republican party campaigned vigorously against Trump – more vigorously than they did against Obama in 2012 in fact.

    I’ve never heard the kind of opposition to Hussein from this crew, that I have heard toward Trump. It’s very telling as to where the true loyalty of much of the GOP lies.

    Senator Kirk, the only Republican senator who was not reelected, had the worst NumbersUSA score of any Republican senator running for re-election this year.

    So the one Republican Senate loss was a gain.

    There’s no way they were bothered by how crass and repulsive it would have been, so my guess is they may have been getting very bad news from internal polling.

    I was thinking the same thing. She claims donated underwear on her tax returns, so no way in Hell she was gonna waste a bunch of coin on fireworks for appearance’s sake.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    That impending Hispanic electoral juggernaut, while exaggerated, is no figment of the imagination. It's coming and coming too fast for comfort.

    I'd like to see stats on voter registration and turnout among "Latinos" in Arizona and California, where it appears both increased. And how about Texas? Notice that it is already not such a blow-out Republican State anymore at the presidential level? That change will intensify and quicken in Texas, and that spells bad news in the fairly near future.
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  66. In Trump unrelated news Ilhan Omar defeats Phyllis Kahn (who entered the Minnesota state house in 1973), she is now America’s #1 Somali. Both were of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party .

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/ilhan-omar-first-somali-american-legislator-minnesota

    The Disco Charts when Kahn first took office:

    http://www.70disco.com/discch73.htm

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Don't you mean Democrat-Farmer-Laborer-Infidel Beheader Party?
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  67. It will be interesting when the turnout data comes out. 94% of Black women voted for Hillary, but what was there turnout compared to Obama? I suspect it was lower.

    I think the answer to this is important since the Democratic party has made an active decision to double down on the minority vote. In the future will they even be able to field a viable White candidate in national elections, female or otherwise? Even if a White candidate can recite the progressive narrative ad nauseum, will the people of color have enough passion to get off the couch and for vote for them?

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  68. @Maj. Kong
    This was a razor thin margin, almost certainly due to the divisive Democrat primary.

    I think we can clearly see that the neoconservative establishment came very close to sinking Trump with the college-educated cohort. Every neocon should be handed their walking papers today.

    Before the explicit tapes came out, I was expecting a 10 point victory. I got most of the states right, but I did think Trump would win Nevada.

    He also almost won Minnesota, and actually won the state if we discount the votes of the Invaders from the Horn of Africa.

    Trump might still beat Romney’s number of votes, neocons and fake polls had an effect though. 2012 was seen as close, in reality this one should have been seen so and boosted turnout. Congratulations to pollster Richard Baris, called the states right and always had it as a close election.

    You need to sort out your indoctrination centres, I mean universities.

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  69. @Greenstalk
    It's difficult to read too much into the demographic data from this election, simply because Trump faced a campaign of vilification and abuse unprecedented in America political history. It wasn't just the usual liberal bias in the news of the sort we're accustomed to - the news shows were open Clinton commercials and the late night talk shows gave themselves over completely to bashing Trump. Hollywood campaigned against Trump, as did Wall Street. The so-called "conservative movement" and much of the Republican party campaigned vigorously against Trump - more vigorously than they did against Obama in 2012 in fact.

    This was a 1964 type election year, with the difference that Goldwater/Trump won this time.

    Trump got hit with everything, a win is a historic achievement. He even got not one but two bogus candidates to siphon off voters.

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    • Replies: @NOTA
    The libertarians and greens run someone every election, and in fact Johnson ran against Romney and Obama as a libertarian.
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  70. @George
    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don't actually look that good for the "Sailer Strategy". Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the 'Latino' population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.

    mona atisha is chaldean
    aka iraqi catholic

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    • Replies: @George
    Thanks for the correction. But my point is that IMO Flint cannot function without importing talent from abroad stands.
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  71. Steve, I hope you will do the state-by-state analysis versus the “marriage gap”.

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  72. Midwestern states with heavy BLM presence over the past 2 years — Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan — saw 8 to 18(! -Missouri) point swings in favor of the Republican pres candidate, compared with 2012.

    Race riots in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Ferguson must have had an impact on white Democrats. None of those areas previously had the white flight of a Chicago, Detroit, or Baltimore; the terror of race riots is new and shocking. TPP and trade would also be factors in Michigan and Ohio, but less so farming-heavy Wisconsin and Missouri.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's interesting.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Thoroughly wrong about Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Hundreds of thousands of white people fled those cities, never to return.
    , @Anon
    North Carolina? That (following Milwaukee) was the final straw for BLM. The victim's family story totally collapsed, the shooting officer was black, the protest became a riot during prime news hours, a black on black murder committed by a criminal/gangster.

    There are revisiting school desegregation -- since the city has re-segregated itself by social class. http://prospect.org/article/battle-royal-over-segregation-queen-city-0
    , @MC
    Your point is well taken, but race riots are not new in Cincy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_riots_of_2001
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  73. It looks like Trump is already getting ready to break his first campaign promise by not throwing Hillary Clinton into an unheated dungeon on inauguration day. The next thing you know he is going to be sending Christmas cards to the leaders of ISIS and building golf courses down Mexico way.

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  74. @Antonymous
    Midwestern states with heavy BLM presence over the past 2 years -- Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan -- saw 8 to 18(! -Missouri) point swings in favor of the Republican pres candidate, compared with 2012.

    Race riots in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Ferguson must have had an impact on white Democrats. None of those areas previously had the white flight of a Chicago, Detroit, or Baltimore; the terror of race riots is new and shocking. TPP and trade would also be factors in Michigan and Ohio, but less so farming-heavy Wisconsin and Missouri.

    That’s interesting.

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  75. @Anon
    After looking at the popular vote totals, Hillary currently has about 59,600,000, and Trump 59,389,000. Trump's number is pretty close to that of Romney (60,933,000) and McCain (59,948,000), so there doesn't seem to be much shift in numbers voting Republican there.

    The real story is in Hillary's numbers. Obama got 65,915,000 in 2012, and 69,498,000 in 2008. Hillary couldn't make the Democrats show up at the polls for her, or else they were pulling levers for third party candidates. Johnson had 4,042,000, and Stein had 1,207,000.

    After looking at the totals for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Johnson being on the ballot took enough votes away from Hillary that it flipped the election to Trump. Michigan and Wisconsin were very close, and Pennsylvania somewhat close. If those states had gone to Hillary, she'd have won with 276 electoral votes, and Trump would have lost with 231. Johnson being on the ballot really screwed Hillary over.

    Johnson took 100K votes in Wisconsin, and Trump and Clinton were only about 18K votes apart. In Michigan, Johnson took 172K, and Trump and Clinton were only 13K votes apart. In Pennsylvania, Johnson took 142K, and Trump and Clinton were only 68K apart.

    I can see crediting 90% of Stein’s vote to Hillary, but Johnson/Weld?

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  76. @AP

    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don’t actually look that good for the “Sailer Strategy”. Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand.
     
    He also won 58% of white votes, vs. Romney winning 59% of white votes. Trump didn't get a higher white vote percentage, he just changed the white electorate - losing college-educated whites (particularly women), but compensating for this loss by getting a lot of uneducated whites to vote for him.

    Ironically, the real reason Trump won wasn't because he got a higher % of the white vote, the difference was that Trump getting slightly higher minority percentages plus lower minority turnout was enough for the win. If Romney had Trump's numbers among blacks, Hispanics and Asians (in both % vote and turnout) he would have won too. Minority behavior is the difference that gave Trump the election.

    I guess the Democrats are gonna have to run a smart, charismatic black person to win.

    There was more 3rd and 4th party voting in 2012, so it makes more sense to look at margin rather than total.

    But, yeah, going downscale among whites was in part an Electoral College strategy to pick up Rust Belt Electoral Votes where Romney had done poorly among whites.

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  77. @anon
    mona atisha is chaldean
    aka iraqi catholic

    Thanks for the correction. But my point is that IMO Flint cannot function without importing talent from abroad stands.

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  78. @Anon
    After looking at the popular vote totals, Hillary currently has about 59,600,000, and Trump 59,389,000. Trump's number is pretty close to that of Romney (60,933,000) and McCain (59,948,000), so there doesn't seem to be much shift in numbers voting Republican there.

    The real story is in Hillary's numbers. Obama got 65,915,000 in 2012, and 69,498,000 in 2008. Hillary couldn't make the Democrats show up at the polls for her, or else they were pulling levers for third party candidates. Johnson had 4,042,000, and Stein had 1,207,000.

    After looking at the totals for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Johnson being on the ballot took enough votes away from Hillary that it flipped the election to Trump. Michigan and Wisconsin were very close, and Pennsylvania somewhat close. If those states had gone to Hillary, she'd have won with 276 electoral votes, and Trump would have lost with 231. Johnson being on the ballot really screwed Hillary over.

    Johnson took 100K votes in Wisconsin, and Trump and Clinton were only about 18K votes apart. In Michigan, Johnson took 172K, and Trump and Clinton were only 13K votes apart. In Pennsylvania, Johnson took 142K, and Trump and Clinton were only 68K apart.

    We will probably need more like seventy million votes to re-elect Trump once the Dems get going on new-voter registration among the endlessly burgeoning Mexican / Latino colonies within our country over the next four years.

    We need to register more white voters, as well to reach and persuade more assimilated English-speaking Asians and Latinos (and there are more to be reached).

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  79. @greysquirrell
    Less Blacks voted for Hillary than Al Gore or Obama and as you mention Trump did better with Blacks than Romney and better than McCain.

    From USA Today : " Predictions that blacks, women and Millennials would not vote Trump proved largely untrue"

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/09/predictions-blacks-women-and-millennials-would-not-vote-trump-proved-largely-untrue/93535292/

    It’s true that plenty of millenials voted Trump, including, apparently, a majority of college-”educated” white millenials and a bigger majority of non-college-”educated” white millenials.

    It’s definitely NOT true, however, that Africans were willing to vote Trump on much of a meaningful scale. So far I’m seeing exit polls showing that 13% of black African men voted Trumo and only a few percent of black African women. Almost the same mindless racial block-voting as usual from our perpetually angry and dimwitted friends.

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  80. @Anon
    Not true though. California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have undergone far more extensive (and expensive) illegal immigration over the past 20 years than Rust Belt states. These mostly turned out for Clinton.

    Rust Belt states voted on the basis of TPP, having experienced the economic blight of NAFTA. Immigration is still a blip on the radar in the rural midwest.

    No, legal and illegal immigration is drastically affecting towns all across the Plains and Midwest, including once-quiet/safe/beautiful Kansas and Nebraska.

    There are more than a million Mexicans in the Chicago area alone, and sadly Mexers and other “Latinos” are surging into wonderful Grand Rapids, Michigan, as well.

    Somali Muslims are already a problem in Minnesota.

    Etc.

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  81. @Anon
    Neocons said GOP needs more outreach to non-white voters.

    Okay, but then, why oppose Trump's appeal to the working class and less educated when non-whites tend to be poorer and less educated?
    How can anyone out-reach to non-whites as the tool of Wall Street? As such, Romney failed not only with non-whites but with white working class.

    Also, would Neocons have been okay with more out-reach to Palestinian-American voters?

    Oops, that's where the outreach is no-no for Neocons. So much for principles. Such outreach would undermine GOP's bitchery to Israel.

    The whole out-reach thing was merely a means to prevent the rise of white consciousness so that the group that whites will out-reach to most is the Zionists.

    We need to BOTH boost white identity, solidarity, voter registration and turnout

    AND

    reach out extensively to assimilated English-speaking Asian and Hispanic Americans who work.

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  82. @LondonBob
    Trump got hit with everything, a win is a historic achievement. He even got not one but two bogus candidates to siphon off voters.

    The libertarians and greens run someone every election, and in fact Johnson ran against Romney and Obama as a libertarian.

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  83. @Svigor
    Marine Le Pen taking France would be an epic follow-on from Brexit, and now Trumpenvictory. I'm not getting my hopes up, though.

    24% of Jews, which is actually not that bad, although not as good as Romney did. Oh well. Reading the Forward you’d think it was 4.
     
    How many voted for Hillary? More than 65%? It would be a hoot if Jews broke for cankles more than yellows or browns.

    Another interesting fact: Nonwhite college grads voted 71% for Hillary, exactly the same proportion as Jews.
     
    Haha, so they did out-Puerto-Rican the Puerto Ricans. Hilarious!

    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married.

    And, White women TOO!!!

    Whiskey, SUCK IT!!
     
    *Buys a round for the White Wymminz*

    The only category of whites Trump didn’t won is college educated women.
     
    In other words, they're made, not born. Further repudiation of Whiskey-ism.

    The breakdown of the vote by various groups seems to follow the pattern established in the last several elections. No real surprises. I suppose the only difference this time was turn-out: more whites turned out (especially blue-collar/lower middle-class whites), fewer blacks, and little increase among hispanics. Trump got 58% of the white vote, better than Romney (I think), but hardly stellar, and hardly indicative of some new electoral alignment.
     
    In other words, further repudiation of the always-impending hispanic electoral juggernaut.

    The so-called “conservative movement” and much of the Republican party campaigned vigorously against Trump – more vigorously than they did against Obama in 2012 in fact.
     
    I've never heard the kind of opposition to Hussein from this crew, that I have heard toward Trump. It's very telling as to where the true loyalty of much of the GOP lies.

    Senator Kirk, the only Republican senator who was not reelected, had the worst NumbersUSA score of any Republican senator running for re-election this year.
     
    So the one Republican Senate loss was a gain.

    There’s no way they were bothered by how crass and repulsive it would have been, so my guess is they may have been getting very bad news from internal polling.
     
    I was thinking the same thing. She claims donated underwear on her tax returns, so no way in Hell she was gonna waste a bunch of coin on fireworks for appearance's sake.

    That impending Hispanic electoral juggernaut, while exaggerated, is no figment of the imagination. It’s coming and coming too fast for comfort.

    I’d like to see stats on voter registration and turnout among “Latinos” in Arizona and California, where it appears both increased. And how about Texas? Notice that it is already not such a blow-out Republican State anymore at the presidential level? That change will intensify and quicken in Texas, and that spells bad news in the fairly near future.

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  84. @George
    In Trump unrelated news Ilhan Omar defeats Phyllis Kahn (who entered the Minnesota state house in 1973), she is now America's #1 Somali. Both were of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party .

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/ilhan-omar-first-somali-american-legislator-minnesota

    The Disco Charts when Kahn first took office:
    http://www.70disco.com/discch73.htm

    Don’t you mean Democrat-Farmer-Laborer-Infidel Beheader Party?

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  85. @Antonymous
    Midwestern states with heavy BLM presence over the past 2 years -- Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan -- saw 8 to 18(! -Missouri) point swings in favor of the Republican pres candidate, compared with 2012.

    Race riots in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Ferguson must have had an impact on white Democrats. None of those areas previously had the white flight of a Chicago, Detroit, or Baltimore; the terror of race riots is new and shocking. TPP and trade would also be factors in Michigan and Ohio, but less so farming-heavy Wisconsin and Missouri.

    Thoroughly wrong about Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Hundreds of thousands of white people fled those cities, never to return.

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  86. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Antonymous
    Midwestern states with heavy BLM presence over the past 2 years -- Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan -- saw 8 to 18(! -Missouri) point swings in favor of the Republican pres candidate, compared with 2012.

    Race riots in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Ferguson must have had an impact on white Democrats. None of those areas previously had the white flight of a Chicago, Detroit, or Baltimore; the terror of race riots is new and shocking. TPP and trade would also be factors in Michigan and Ohio, but less so farming-heavy Wisconsin and Missouri.

    North Carolina? That (following Milwaukee) was the final straw for BLM. The victim’s family story totally collapsed, the shooting officer was black, the protest became a riot during prime news hours, a black on black murder committed by a criminal/gangster.

    There are revisiting school desegregation — since the city has re-segregated itself by social class. http://prospect.org/article/battle-royal-over-segregation-queen-city-0

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  87. @George
    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don't actually look that good for the "Sailer Strategy". Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the 'Latino' population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    No comment.

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  88. The Jewish Vote is largely a euphemism for Jewish Political Money. A reminder:

    http://forward.com/news/breaking-news/350531/jewish-donors-shun-donald-trump-95-of-contributions-go-to-hillary-clinton/

    It is an open secret in Jewish Republican circles: Donors are steering clear from Donald Trump, finding any excuses to channel their political contributions to congressional races and Super PACs supporting down-ballot candidates rather than writing a check for the controversial Republican standard bearer.

    Now, the prediction and statistic analysis website 538 has put this trend into numbers — and the dramatic results confirm that Jewish donors are shunning the presidential candidate.

    According to 538’s analysis, which was based on identifying Jewish donors by their names, place of residence and other factors, just 5% of contributions from Jewish donors went to Trump, compared to 29% for Mitt Romney in 2012.

    We’ll have to wait and see if there’s any retconning on the matter.

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  89. @Anon
    Not true though. California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have undergone far more extensive (and expensive) illegal immigration over the past 20 years than Rust Belt states. These mostly turned out for Clinton.

    Rust Belt states voted on the basis of TPP, having experienced the economic blight of NAFTA. Immigration is still a blip on the radar in the rural midwest.

    The difference is that California, Nevada etc. are very used to Hispanics – but not Iowa and Wisconsin.

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  90. @people's republic
    Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.

    Also, black men are smarter than black women.
    There's a 10% non-dumb, if not "talented".

    29% of Hispanic vote is an amazing attainment. With fair press/TV coverage that could have easily been 40%.

    "Asian" is too much of an umbrella term.
    I'd like to know the stats for high-IQ people alone, Japanese Korean and Chinese.

    The unmarried women statistic tells us a strong factor of support for Democrats is bitterness. As you Sailer have often remarked, that's the go-to party for people who feel bad and want somebody to blame for their problems.

    Well, what springs to mind first is Fred Reed is right: Hispanics are measurably smarter than blacks.

    Yes, they invested their time and gas money in casting a ballot for a corrupt clown and blowhard with no political experience. Genius is an underrated thing.

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  91. @Antonymous
    Midwestern states with heavy BLM presence over the past 2 years -- Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan -- saw 8 to 18(! -Missouri) point swings in favor of the Republican pres candidate, compared with 2012.

    Race riots in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Ferguson must have had an impact on white Democrats. None of those areas previously had the white flight of a Chicago, Detroit, or Baltimore; the terror of race riots is new and shocking. TPP and trade would also be factors in Michigan and Ohio, but less so farming-heavy Wisconsin and Missouri.

    Your point is well taken, but race riots are not new in Cincy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_riots_of_2001

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  92. @JSM
    Married men saved the day. Maybe we’ll see changes in some of these alimony laws and I can get married.

    And, White women TOO!!!

    Whiskey, SUCK IT!!

    Now Sheila calm, down, I think baking a nice green-bean casserole right now would make you feel better.

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  93. Now Sheila calm, down, I think

    Do you talk like you write? Like Captain Kirk?

    P.S. Trump already has more executive experience than Hussein will ever have, never mind Hussein in 08. So he’s an improvement in that regard.

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  94. @Lot
    Steve I hope you can come up with your own estimates for some of these groups. I don't believe for a second Trump did that well with blacks and hispanics, nor do I believe he only got 58% of the white vote.

    Trump probably did better with Blacks and hispanics than the exit polls indicate. Blacks generally oppose amnesty and open borders, because they know it hurts them most.

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  95. Obama seemed genuinely happy that Hillary lost. Even he realizes she would be a poor president. Can’t help that the Clintons used their dirty tricks against him 8 years ago and she was a horrendous Sec of State. Obama must also know that she has parkinson’s disease and could not handle the position as our head of state.

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  96. @George
    Am I wrong in thinking the numbers don't actually look that good for the "Sailer Strategy". Trump lost the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. A decade from now the country will be less European American and more everything else, although maybe Blacks will decline at the same rate as Whites, but it is irrelevant. The technical elite of the US will be at least half Asian.

    Anecdotal evidence from NJ:

    I recently had a serious medical problem, about half my specialist doctors were South Asian. Younger doctors seemed to be majority non European (including Jews).

    The doctor associated with discovering the Flint water fiasco is Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha (arab, Iraqi, probably Muslim). Tell me you are going to stop Muslim immigration when large numbers of them are involved in medical professions. In general Flint has a serious shortage of people who knew how to operate Flint, which is the real cause of the crisis.

    The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.

    One could expect the 'Latino' population to overwhelm the White population, but the good news is a large chunk will be George Zimmerman Americans. California will probably be a blue state forever, if anything bigger and bluer in the future.

    ”The San Berndadino shooters were in the US to do very technical work Americans could not be found to do.”

    oh baloney. The male Farook got a 3 year certificate from the local Community College, for a government job inspecting (iirc) restaurants. Hardly technical work, let’s be blunt. He was born in the US, in Chicago. His PARENTS immigrated in the 70s under a “diversity” program.

    The wife, who he brought in, had attended a Pakistani dental hygiene school, DM photographed it. A very dilapidated old building. She did not finish the course, and wore full burka in the US and did not, that I ever read, work.

    Farook sr, the father of the male shooter, was pretty much a ne’er do well. He sometimes did long haul trucking jobs for a neighbor. IMO NONE of them, parents, 4 children nor the spouses should have been here.

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  97. @Anonymous
    Constant drumbeat from the Tribe: whites fear of losing their homeland (nation they invented, fought for, built) is pathology i.e. mental illness.

    Friedman today:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/opinion/were-near-the-breaking-point.html?ref=opinion

    There is nothing that can make people more angry or disoriented than feeling they have lost their home. For some it is because America is becoming a minority-majority country and this has threatened the sense of community of many middle-class whites, particularly those living outside the more cosmopolitan urban areas.

    THEY NEVER VOTED FOR A MAJORITY-MINORITY COUNTRY! IN FACT THEY WERE ASSURED THAT THE HART-CELLAR ACT OF 1965 WOULD NOT RESULT IN THAT OUTCOME.

    Yes, but look Friedman’s opening paragraph:

    I began election night writing a column that started with words from an immigrant, my friend Lesley Goldwasser, who came to America from Zimbabwe in the 1980s. Surveying our political scene a few years ago, Lesley remarked to me: “You Americans kick around your country like it’s a football. But it’s not a football. It’s a Fabergé egg. You can break it.”

    Now what happened to Zimbabwe in the 1980s that could have led to Goldwasser immigrating to America?

    Oh yes, I remember now, 1980 was the year Rhodesia became Zimbabwe and everything went to sh*t shortly thereafter.

    Hmm, I wonder if Goldwasser was a supporter of Ian Smith or Robert Mugabe?

    Faberge egg indeed.

    I tell you, this stuff writes itself.

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  98. @M
    Trump is portrayed in a lot of the sympathetic media as speaking up for the un-aspirational classes against an elite that doesn't offer much for the low aspirations folk who want to work a standard job for standard pay outside of conformist PC corporate culture and just "get by" financially rather than achieve.

    In your experience, does that come across to the highly aspirational young Chinese, or do they not really see it like that at all? If so, what do they think about it? And in general how much it the attitude among young Chinese more or less "Low aspiration folk deserve what's coming to them" vs sympathy for people who don't have lots of ambition?

    Almost all Chinese-Americans live in the cities. People don’t really think about the Rust Belt, so I don’t think there’s much sympathy or hatred. Some Chinese may realize that Trump panders to unambitious workaday whites, but also acknowledge that Trump could dismantle the stifling PC culture in urban areas.

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    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    unambitious workaday whites

    Not everybody can do the math to be an engineer, scientist, or mathematician. In fact probably no more than 10% of the white population. It isn't just ambition. Once you have lost that decent paying factory job you are in a hole you can barely get out of in some parts of the country and there is no way to move out when real estate is depressed and your assets are of little value.
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  99. @Jason Liu
    Almost all Chinese-Americans live in the cities. People don't really think about the Rust Belt, so I don't think there's much sympathy or hatred. Some Chinese may realize that Trump panders to unambitious workaday whites, but also acknowledge that Trump could dismantle the stifling PC culture in urban areas.

    unambitious workaday whites

    Not everybody can do the math to be an engineer, scientist, or mathematician. In fact probably no more than 10% of the white population. It isn’t just ambition. Once you have lost that decent paying factory job you are in a hole you can barely get out of in some parts of the country and there is no way to move out when real estate is depressed and your assets are of little value.

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