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From Vox on Chetty’s latest paper:

The massive new study on race and economic mobility in America, explained

Even black men born to wealthy families are less economically successful than white men.
By Dylan Matthews @dylanmattdylan @vox.com Mar 21, 2018, 7:30am EDT

… The study brings to mind, for some, the Moynihan Report of 1965. That report, issued by policy analyst and future senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan and widely decried as racist by many sociologists for its characterization of the black family as pathological and dysfunctional, was also, in the words of Ta-Nehisi Coates, “a fundamentally sexist document that promotes the importance not just of family but of patriarchy, arguing that black men should be empowered at the expense of black women.”…

“I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

This seems to be a Thing among female SJWs lately: announcing how exhausted you are by people not automatically submitting to your arguments.

At the same time, the gender asymmetry found in the paper serves to rebut a remarkably persistent racist trope: that the black-white income gap is due to an innate gap in ability, rather than discrimination or other environmental factors.

This theory, spread most successfully in recent decades by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray in their infamous book The Bell Curve, contends that black Americans are on average less intelligent than white Americans, and that this gap is most likely genetic in origin. That, Herrnstein and Murray argued, largely explains the persistence of the black-white income gap in the US, and implies that policies aimed at closing it, like increased government investments in black neighborhoods or affirmative action or even reparations, would be ineffective. It’s a clearly racist idea, but one with remarkable staying power on the American right.

And it’s an idea that’s extremely difficult to reconcile with this study’s finding that black women born into equivalently affluent families earn the same amount as white women, while black men do not.

No.

Black men and black women, after all, have very similar genetics.

That’s why NFL cornerbacks are 50% black men and 50% black women.

So genetic factors cannot explain why black men experience a mobility gap relative to white men while black women do not.

“In my humble opinion, these results put an empirical nail in the coffin of The Bell Curve,” Harvard economist David Deming tweeted after the study was released.

Actually, Professor Deming had to issue a correction that he had misunderstood Chetty’s results, but he was still a true believer in the nail in the coffin of The Bell Curve!

Screenshot 2018-03-22 23.56.41

Even Harvard professors like Deming are misreading the results of Chetty’s study as saying the black women earn as much as white women despite black women having lower test scores.

But that’s not true. As Dylan Matthews notes earlier in his Vox article:

In 2016, white women working full time and all year earned $57,559 on average compared to $45,261 for black women working full time, according to Census data.

So among full time all year workers, white women earn 27% more than black women. That’s not insignificant.

Full time all year white male workers earned $78,577 while full time all year black male workers earned $56,076. Full time white men earned 40% more than full time black men. (Now, of course, more black men aren’t year round full time workers due to unemployment, incarceration, being in the underground economy (see The Wire), etc.)

So, the race gap in income among full time worker women is 2/3rd as big as the race gap among full time worker men.

That disproves The Bell Curve?

What’s confusing so many people about Chetty’s latest report is that they assume his statement that black women individually earn as much (or even a tiny bit more than white women) conditional on parental income is important.

What they don’t realize is how much more selected the black population is at higher incomes.

Screenshot 2018-03-23 01.14.40

The average black in Chetty’s study grew up at the 33rd percentile of all races income, while the average white grew up at the 58th percentile.

It’s sort of interesting that a black woman who grew up in The One Percent (i.e., the 99th percent of entire population’s income distribution, not the 99th percent of black income) is likely to grow up to earn about as much individually as a white woman who grew up in The One Percent.

But, as iSteve commenter res pointed out, in Chetty’s colossal sample size of about 21 million, The One Percent has 186,000 whites and 1,800 blacks. In percentage terms, 1.383% of whites grew up in The One Percent versus only 0.065% of blacks, or only 1/21th as much. So, The One Percent’s black members in Chetty’s database are 21 times more selected for extreme high income than The One Percent’s white members.

The white young adults in Chetty’s database who grew up in the overall One Percent start at the 98.62nd percentile of white parental income. In contrast, the black young adults in The One Percent start at the 99.93rd percentile of black parental income. That’s roughly one standard deviation between the races in income distribution.

At the 94th percentile of overall national income, whites are at the 91.8th percentile of white income, while blacks are at the 99.1st percentile of black income. Once again, that’s roughly a one standard deviation gap between whites and blacks in parental earnings.

Where have we heard of a one standard deviation race gap before?

So, for Chetty to find that black women who grew up at the extreme highest levels of black income to earn the same income as youngish adults versus as white women who grew up as more moderate percentiles of white income isn’t saying something all that astonishing.

 
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  1. With a sample size of 1800 black women representing the 99.93rd percentile of black parental income, I wonder how many are the children of athletes and currently receive income related to that athletic talent (i.e.; not primarily from intellectual capacity). So again, bell curves everywhere.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Chetty has a top 0.1% of parents income, where I think athletes would be common. I've known a couple of black kids whose dads were superstar athletes back in the 1990s. But I don't know how long they made 99.9th percentile incomes and they weren't around much.

    , @Barnard
    Almost 80% of NFL players go broke with five years of retirement and the percentage for the NBA is almost as high. There really aren't many options for women athletes to earn a lot money because of their own talent. WNBA salaries are low and you can count the number in tennis on one hand. The entertainment industry would likely have a significant higher number than sports. I think the number of affirmative action hires in corporate America would be at least half of the total.
    , @Colleen Pater
    On the other hand i got hooked into finally finding out who exactly paris hilton is, i mean i knew she was a slut grandaughter of the Hilton but beyond that i kinda wondered how she and the others stay afloat. seems like she makes for instance 10 million a year on perfume alone about the same for public appearances ( she cant actually speak) and sundry other gigs like realty tv and and c movies.

    as for this debate whites have no idea the extent of affirmative action that goes on let alone its consequences, you cant make any intelligent sense of this data without looking at how that worked, it s massive and why nothing works even Iacocaa said it wasnt the japanese that destroyed the american car industry it was incompetent blacks coming into the unions through affirmative action, all are governments are administered by black women as is our healthcare etc
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  2. @sailer's_choice
    With a sample size of 1800 black women representing the 99.93rd percentile of black parental income, I wonder how many are the children of athletes and currently receive income related to that athletic talent (i.e.; not primarily from intellectual capacity). So again, bell curves everywhere.

    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Chetty has a top 0.1% of parents income, where I think athletes would be common. I’ve known a couple of black kids whose dads were superstar athletes back in the 1990s. But I don’t know how long they made 99.9th percentile incomes and they weren’t around much.

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    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Tim Green, former Falcons defensive end and Syracuse Law grad, covered this 20 years ago in his book The Dark Side of the Game.

    He had an unnamed black teammate who was one of the 10 highest-paid players in the NFL, though this was before free agency and the average NFL salary was about $500K. This guy would buy a $75K-$100K exotic sports car, drive it for a while, them get bored with it and flip it for another car, losing $20K-$30K with every vehicle transaction. Three years after retirement the guy was driving a Ford compact! These are the guys you see at the memorabilia shows, selling their autographs for $10.

    By comparison, entertainers have it a bit easier, as they still get paid residuals.

    Whites mostly conserve their wealth. Blacks mostly spend their wealth. Do you think Chetty's metrics include that?

    , @res

    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.
     
    Any thoughts on how Chetty's methodology impacts this question?

    From page 13, section III.B I see (BTW, the last sentence is an interesting subtlety):

    Variable Definitions for Parents.

    Income. Our primary measure of parent income is total pre-tax income at the household level, which we label parent family or household income.13 In years where a parent files a tax return, we define household income as Adjusted Gross Income (as reported on the 1040 tax return) plus tax-exempt interest income and the non-taxable portion of Social Security and Disability benefits. In years where a parent does not file a tax return, household income is coded as zero.14 Following Chetty et al. (2014), we define our baseline parental income measure as the mean of parents’ household income over five years: 1994, 1995, and 1998-2000, as tax records are unavailable in 1996 and 1997.15 We exclude children whose mean parent income is zero or negative (1.0% of children) because parents who file tax returns (as is required to link them to a child) reporting negative or zero income typically have large capital losses, which are a proxy for having significant wealth.

     

    I think using a five year mean still allows high earners with spiky incomes to show up in the 1%, but the two year gap in the middle might reduce the number of athletes who tend to have shorter careers. Then again, $1M+ athlete/entertainer incomes are enough larger than typical incomes none of that might matter.
    , @Ed
    I was thinking this too but the NFL & NBA weren’t paying high salaries in the late 1970s when the cohort of this study was born. So I’m not sure if the few wealthy blacks were atheletes.

    MLB had started paying higher salaries at this time and black Americans were a higher % of players than they are today but I’m not sure how many made top dollar.

    I’m thinking in the 1970s the top .01% of black households were probably the light skinned elite.
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  3. They’re going to be repeating this for years and years, aren’t they?

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    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @bomag

    ...repeating this for years and years
     
    Yeah, they've been anxious to refute The Bell Curve for ~twenty five years. You'd think such an obvious refutation would be a done deal by now.

    For that matter, Herrnstein's IQ article in The Atlantic appeared in 1971, going on 50 years ago.
    , @J.Ross
    They're restarting BLM in Sacramento now. I expect the Parkland Players to be on retainer as professional activists through middle age. These fake causes are their careers, they have no morality, why would they stop just because everyone saw that they were lying?
    , @Mishra
    It's really the perfect bit of pseudo-scientific agitprop. It seems reasonable the way it's presented, and the rebuttal requires more intellectual firepower to comprehend, not to mention discover. The famous Bertrand Russell quote comes to mind.
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  4. Anon[142] • Disclaimer says:

    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever’s the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you’d otherwise expect.

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    • Replies: @Autochthon, @phil
    Very important point. The black-white IQ gap is HIGHER at HIGHER income levels because affirmative action inflates black income levels at the high end; whites have to have MUCH higher IQs to earn as much as these blacks.
    , @rogue-one
    I agree.

    If you are a black kid in upper middle class in the US, you have won a lottery. Just stay out of crime and finish college (choose an easy major). You are set for a comfortable upper middle class life.
    , @Anonymous
    In the elite fields (biglaw, finance/consulting, medicine) AA are laughably underqualified. journalists, who most assuredly got their bs jobs through nepotism, are always out to accuse others of the same--that somehow white male privilege must balance out the presumably minor AA "bump." Well, no.

    Most people (including conservatives who dislike AA) have no idea how bad it really is. My sister's medical school had remedial classes for black students. Medical school, not undergrad. Remedial classes for people who will be in teaching hospitals wearing their little white coat and seeing patients in a year.


    Lower on the income scale we have, you know, the entire government of the United States which switched from the civil service exam to being just another welfare program.

    The amount of money and benefits and fake jobs these underprivileged people get is truly breathtaking. The forgotten urban youth (btw here's Mark Zuckerberg to talk to Oprah about donating $100mm to one crappy city's schools).

    I have two social workers in my extended family. That's an entire profession of white women we pay to go play surrogate to dysfunctional but highly fecund families of black criminals. Madness.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    I knew a black guy like that in college who was majoring in journalism. He always played loud music in his dorm room. Now he always appears on my TV, reporting for a major network.
    , @Anonymous
    The top 10 percent of black Americans starts at IQ 100.38 (median 85, SD 12).
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  5. > It’s sort of interesting that a black woman who grew up in The One Percent (i.e., the 99th percent of entire population’s income distribution, not the 99th percent of black income) is likely to grow up to earn about as much individually as a white woman who grew up in The One Percent.

    One effect here is the difference in career orientation. The marriage market is much more favorable for college-educated white women than college-educated black women. Many high IQ white women will choose “lifestyle careers” based on the expectation of marrying a high IQ, high earning husband. Black women don’t have the luxury of being able to count on that, so they tend to focus on high-earning careers.

    Secondarily, whites have higher saving rates than blacks. Even controlling for income. A white family in the top decile is likely to have accumulated a very large nest egg, which the adult kids can count on to buffer their lifestyle. You get a lot of white girls from high income families who use their trust fund to pursue interesting and high-status but low paying careers like being a journalist or an artist.

    I’d like to see Chetty’s results, but controlled for career choice. My guess is the black/white women gap would basically be the same as the black/white male gap.

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    • Replies: @peterike

    Many high IQ white women will choose “lifestyle careers” based on the expectation of marrying a high IQ, high earning husband.
     
    Indeed, and there are vast numbers of these sorts of jobs. Working in art galleries, various museum curator / fund raiser jobs, NGO jobs, "style" writers of all sorts, publishing, public relations, theater, and so on. These jobs are filled by white women, increasingly by American-educated Asian women, and gay or soy-boy men. What there are very few of are black or Mestizo Hispanic women (plenty of Conquistador types though).

    These jobs are all designed to flatter female/gay vanity in one way or the other, whether it be an "I'm so artistic" vibe or an "I'm saving the world" vibe, or simply because one gets to hob-nob with the great and good and sip Prosecco at some bullshit function for some bullshit artist like Jeff Koons.

    Yet the women toiling at the low paying jobs somehow manage to live in expensive places like Brooklyn or San Francisco or Austin. How does that happen? Precisely: wealthy family or wealthy husband. But they are quite deliberately taking a lower-paying job because it fits their emotional needs, and what else are you going to do with that art history degree from Dartmouth?

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  6. I must admit I grow weary of hearing the same tropes to shut down reasoned discussion and examination of empirical data. I suppose we *could* indeed choose to ignore our lyin’ eyes and live in fantasy-land, but at some point the deviation around the “norm” is going to get wide enough to take real bites out of the quiet reality of even the most blindered of our elite. Won’t matter, because it will only dawn on them when they are being necklaced or strung up by their pets.

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  7. When they report black, does that include mulattas who self identify as black and went to horse camp during the summer?

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  8. Anon[212] • Disclaimer says:

    for Chetty to find that black women who grew up at the extreme highest levels of black income to earn the same income as youngish adults versus as white women who grew up as more moderate percentiles of white income isn’t saying something all that astonishing.

    Let’s imagine this was just IQ. Say we have some matched black parents at +4 standard deviations, 145, and white parents at +3, 145.

    Assuming a heritability coefficient of 60%, the white kids should have IQs of +1.8 deviations, 127, and the black kids should have +2.4, only 121.

    With that in mind, why isn’t it surprising that black daughters have the same income conditional on parental income that white daughters do? Shouldn’t they regress to a lower mean?

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Good question.

    So if, say, the white parental income is a standard deviation higher than the black parental income. And say that regression toward the mean is 50%, than two women who grew up in homes with the same parental income in absolute terms, which would be 2 standard deviations of the mean for the black family and one standard deviation for the white family, then the black woman should regress 1.0 standard deviations and white woman only 0.5 standard deviations, leaving a 0.5 standard deviation difference to explain (e.g., affirmative action, etc.)

    , @Yak-15
    Some studies find American Black IQ to be around 85 with a standard deviation of approximately 10. 145 would be six standard deviations to the right. If you pull out entertainers and atheletes from the study, you may be left with a substantially larger disparity.
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  9. @Anon

    for Chetty to find that black women who grew up at the extreme highest levels of black income to earn the same income as youngish adults versus as white women who grew up as more moderate percentiles of white income isn’t saying something all that astonishing.
     
    Let's imagine this was just IQ. Say we have some matched black parents at +4 standard deviations, 145, and white parents at +3, 145.

    Assuming a heritability coefficient of 60%, the white kids should have IQs of +1.8 deviations, 127, and the black kids should have +2.4, only 121.

    With that in mind, why isn't it surprising that black daughters have the same income conditional on parental income that white daughters do? Shouldn't they regress to a lower mean?

    Good question.

    So if, say, the white parental income is a standard deviation higher than the black parental income. And say that regression toward the mean is 50%, than two women who grew up in homes with the same parental income in absolute terms, which would be 2 standard deviations of the mean for the black family and one standard deviation for the white family, then the black woman should regress 1.0 standard deviations and white woman only 0.5 standard deviations, leaving a 0.5 standard deviation difference to explain (e.g., affirmative action, etc.)

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    • Replies: @RCB
    The general formula for the expected difference between white and black IQ among children raised by parents of the same mean IQ is

    IQ_Controlling_For_Parent_IQ = (1-heritability) * Overall_IQ_Gap

    Proof:
    Expected White IQ: (1-heritability)*White_Mean + heritability*Parent_IQ
    Expected Black. IQ: (1-heritability)*Black_Mean + heritability*Parent_IQ
    Subtract the two. If the parent IQ is the same, you get the above formula.

    Note that the higher heritability is, the less regression to the mean, and therefore the less difference you expect to see between races given equal parent IQ. If heritability is, say, 0.75, then the parent-controlled gap would be only 3.75 points - pretty hard to notice without a large sample.

    So why don't we see a gap arising in female income even when controlling for parent income? Let's be honest with ourselves: it's surprising. If you had asked me before, I'd have predicted a modest gap with high confidence. What's going on? I figure it has something to do with all the complications surrounding work for women and how that differs between the races. E.g. white women less likely to work as hard because they are more likely to marry a productive white male, etc. Various other ideas shared here.

    I *don't* think that Steve's agonizing over white vs black quantiles in the above post is very illuminating.
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  10. @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.
    Read More
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  11. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:

    Hilariously the professor complaining about uncompensated emotional labor said that women professors are more oriented towards personal relations and so on. Major gaffe! No, the postmodern view is nurture, nor nature, women have no innate traits. She needs to get with the program, although in other contexts I’m sure she tows the line.

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  12. Worth pointing out that an average black woman and average black man working full time would combine to have a fairly comfortable household income, even though it would be lower than an average white couple. Leaving IQ aside, the fact that marriage has become increasingly uncommon in black America explains a lot of the cultural and economic struggles it experiences, but it’s certainly not fashionable on the left or the right to promote the idea that a return to mores of mid-20th century America would probably have a significant and beneficial effect on the worst-performing segment of our society.

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    • Replies: @AndrewR
    This was Charles Murray's complaint in his book Coming Apart a few years ago: middle/upper-middle class people don't preach what they practice. They tend to have habits and values conducive to desirable life outcomes but they tend to avoid preaching to the lower classes.

    Then again, it's true that marriage isn't a fix-all. If you marry a lazy, broke, violent drug addict, nothing will change about that person except their marital status. In large part, the low marriage rates at the bottom of society are due to the low marriageability of the people. The best solution is probably just eugenics: use carrots and sticks to get proles to not breed.

    , @unpc downunder
    Those mid-century social mores depended a lot on a stable job market. In an unstable, liberalised job market it makes sense for many low-skilled proles to adopt loose family structures. For example, if a man on a low income moves out of home, he can move around looking for work, his partner can go on welfare, and he can give his family cash under the table. Thus the family is financially better off than if he stayed at home.

    The people who are suffering the most from changing social mores are arguably lower-middle class whites. Their incomes are too high to make welfare an attractive option, but they still pay the hefty financial cost of high divorce rates. If I remember rightly, a large New Zealand study about ten years back found incomes where increasing for the top 10 percent, holding steady for the bottom twenty percent, and declining for those in the middle.
    , @DavidDennison
    This is not possible given the lack of availability of marriageable young black men. Ask any African American woman what her experience has been on Match.com
    , @Travis
    good point, but Black women have few marriage prospects...this explains why the Black daughters of wealthy parents have a marriage rate of just 33% veer 65% for the white daughters of wealthy parents.

    Far fewer Black males attend college compared to Black females and the incarceration rate for Black males approaches 10%. In addition the most successful Black males will marry white women.
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  13. To summarize, blacks on average earn less than whites because of lower IQ, and black men also learn less in the legal economy because of higher criminality.

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  14. @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.

    Very important point. The black-white IQ gap is HIGHER at HIGHER income levels because affirmative action inflates black income levels at the high end; whites have to have MUCH higher IQs to earn as much as these blacks.

    Read More
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  15. @Arclight
    Worth pointing out that an average black woman and average black man working full time would combine to have a fairly comfortable household income, even though it would be lower than an average white couple. Leaving IQ aside, the fact that marriage has become increasingly uncommon in black America explains a lot of the cultural and economic struggles it experiences, but it's certainly not fashionable on the left or the right to promote the idea that a return to mores of mid-20th century America would probably have a significant and beneficial effect on the worst-performing segment of our society.

    This was Charles Murray’s complaint in his book Coming Apart a few years ago: middle/upper-middle class people don’t preach what they practice. They tend to have habits and values conducive to desirable life outcomes but they tend to avoid preaching to the lower classes.

    Then again, it’s true that marriage isn’t a fix-all. If you marry a lazy, broke, violent drug addict, nothing will change about that person except their marital status. In large part, the low marriage rates at the bottom of society are due to the low marriageability of the people. The best solution is probably just eugenics: use carrots and sticks to get proles to not breed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Arclight
    True - if the feds offered some kind of refundable tax credit to people under a certain income/age who were childless (and called it something like a personal development credit, on the theory people would use it for school or something similar), that might help. So would free birth control implants for any woman who wanted it. Welfare for single mothers incentivized out of wedlock childbearing for women at the bottom of the economic ladder, so we should make it more lucrative to stay childless.
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  16. @Anon

    for Chetty to find that black women who grew up at the extreme highest levels of black income to earn the same income as youngish adults versus as white women who grew up as more moderate percentiles of white income isn’t saying something all that astonishing.
     
    Let's imagine this was just IQ. Say we have some matched black parents at +4 standard deviations, 145, and white parents at +3, 145.

    Assuming a heritability coefficient of 60%, the white kids should have IQs of +1.8 deviations, 127, and the black kids should have +2.4, only 121.

    With that in mind, why isn't it surprising that black daughters have the same income conditional on parental income that white daughters do? Shouldn't they regress to a lower mean?

    Some studies find American Black IQ to be around 85 with a standard deviation of approximately 10. 145 would be six standard deviations to the right. If you pull out entertainers and atheletes from the study, you may be left with a substantially larger disparity.

    Read More
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  17. Black women seem to be over represented in government jobs, which seem to offer better compensation.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Empirical experience supports this, and additionally that government security auditors consider them to be remarkably safe bets: they don't seem to have any great ambitions, obsessions or eccentricities that would lead them to betrayal. Wakanda nationalism is harmless for security concerns.
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  18. @Steve Sailer
    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Chetty has a top 0.1% of parents income, where I think athletes would be common. I've known a couple of black kids whose dads were superstar athletes back in the 1990s. But I don't know how long they made 99.9th percentile incomes and they weren't around much.

    Tim Green, former Falcons defensive end and Syracuse Law grad, covered this 20 years ago in his book The Dark Side of the Game.

    He had an unnamed black teammate who was one of the 10 highest-paid players in the NFL, though this was before free agency and the average NFL salary was about $500K. This guy would buy a $75K-$100K exotic sports car, drive it for a while, them get bored with it and flip it for another car, losing $20K-$30K with every vehicle transaction. Three years after retirement the guy was driving a Ford compact! These are the guys you see at the memorabilia shows, selling their autographs for $10.

    By comparison, entertainers have it a bit easier, as they still get paid residuals.

    Whites mostly conserve their wealth. Blacks mostly spend their wealth. Do you think Chetty’s metrics include that?

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Three years after retirement the guy was driving a Ford compact!
     
    Man, I had no idea those compact Fords were so sought-after, Brutusale! Was it an early 00's ZX-2, perchance? (Every car with a model name that is numbers and letters must be FAST.).

    Do you think it would be a chick magnet, if I could tell them, "This car used to belong to Tim Green's linebacker friend!"?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm2iNNqj2fQ
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  19. Steve, why ignore the huge gap in household income between the Wealthy white daughters compared to the wealthy Black daughters ? In reality the white daughters of the wealthy do just as well as the sons…there Is No difference in household income between the white boys and white girls.

    there is a vast difference in outcomes between the white and black daughters of the wealthy. 40% of the white girls were living in wealthy households as adults and just 10% of the Black girls.

    It is dishonest to conclude that a White woman who stays home to raise her 3 kids while her husband earns $500,000 per year is is no longer among the top 1% and because her individual income is close to zero.

    For the typical female the best possible outcome after getting their college degree is to find a wealthy husband. Thus the Chetty data demonstrates that white women achieve their goals at a much higher level than the Black females. The majority of the white females found a high earning husband and will remain among the top 10% while less than a third of the wealthy black daughters found husbands. The marriage rate was twice as high for the white females. This should not be ignored and is the primary reason the Black females are more likely to work than the white females..

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    • Replies: @res

    In reality the white daughters of the wealthy do just as well as the sons
     
    My reading of the numbers in the spreadsheet (the differences are small enough at about 3% to make it hard to see in the separate plots for men and women) is that white women actually do a bit better than white men in terms of household income. See these variables:
    kfr_[race]_[gender] - Mean child family (household) income rank by race and by gender.
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  20. Couldn’t the closer correlation in wage gap between black and white women (as compared with men) be at least partially explained by the IQ distribution of women having a smaller standard deviation than men?

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  21. The fact that it’s more unusual for blacks to be One Percenters actually strengthens the argument Steve seems to think it weakens: it’s unusual for people to be that far from the mean from their population and usually the result of some random factors that won’t be repeated, so their children will likely regress to the mean. The explanation for this difference brought up in an earlier thread here is that black women face more pressure to be breadwinners than white women since the latter are more likely to have high-earning husbands.

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    • Replies: @Bernardo Pizzaro Cortez Del Castro
    The Black daughters did regress significantly , with less than 9% staying wealthy while 40% of the white daughters remained in wealthy households.

    Did a wealthy white girl regress because she married a wealthy man to support her ? According to Chetty a white daughter of wealth falls into the middle class if she takes a part time teaching position while raising her kids, while being married to a millionaire. She is put in the same middle class category with a single Black mother struggling to make ends meet while working as a substitute teacher.
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  22. Well, the good news is that they won’t need to do a Girl Power remake of Trading Places. We’ll be spared with having to look away as Leslie Jones plays Eddie Murphy and Kristen Wiig reprises the role of Dan Aykroyd.

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  23. @Brutusale
    Tim Green, former Falcons defensive end and Syracuse Law grad, covered this 20 years ago in his book The Dark Side of the Game.

    He had an unnamed black teammate who was one of the 10 highest-paid players in the NFL, though this was before free agency and the average NFL salary was about $500K. This guy would buy a $75K-$100K exotic sports car, drive it for a while, them get bored with it and flip it for another car, losing $20K-$30K with every vehicle transaction. Three years after retirement the guy was driving a Ford compact! These are the guys you see at the memorabilia shows, selling their autographs for $10.

    By comparison, entertainers have it a bit easier, as they still get paid residuals.

    Whites mostly conserve their wealth. Blacks mostly spend their wealth. Do you think Chetty's metrics include that?

    Three years after retirement the guy was driving a Ford compact!

    Man, I had no idea those compact Fords were so sought-after, Brutusale! Was it an early 00′s ZX-2, perchance? (Every car with a model name that is numbers and letters must be FAST.).

    Do you think it would be a chick magnet, if I could tell them, “This car used to belong to Tim Green’s linebacker friend!”?

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  24. anonymous[393] • Disclaimer says:

    Why do ALL and ONLY white populations have to be ‘diverse’ and ‘multicultural’? this is not demanded of any non white peoples anywhere.

    Diversity is just about taking things that are white and making them non white.

    White “privilege” is mass immigration and “diversity” forced on All & Only white populations.

    Its Anti White

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  25. Just reading this cntrl-left, feminist, racist bitching about any of this shit is exhausting for #MeToo.

    “I gotta get outta bed, get a hammer and a nail,
    learn how to use my hands,
    not just my head, I’ll think myself in a jail …”

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  26. @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.

    I agree.

    If you are a black kid in upper middle class in the US, you have won a lottery. Just stay out of crime and finish college (choose an easy major). You are set for a comfortable upper middle class life.

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  27. Oh hey:

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Oh hey: Zaphod signed it without a fight, now ICE is getting their budget slashed and their deportations limited, wall building funds are forbidden, and I can lie into a phone and end your right to bear arms, because it secretly included "Fix NCIS."
    So I guess despite betraying their own base with electoral cheating, losing a staggering amount of money, and being massively unpopular, Democrats have a shot to retake the Congress, thanks to Republican leadership.
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  28. @TGGP
    The fact that it's more unusual for blacks to be One Percenters actually strengthens the argument Steve seems to think it weakens: it's unusual for people to be that far from the mean from their population and usually the result of some random factors that won't be repeated, so their children will likely regress to the mean. The explanation for this difference brought up in an earlier thread here is that black women face more pressure to be breadwinners than white women since the latter are more likely to have high-earning husbands.

    The Black daughters did regress significantly , with less than 9% staying wealthy while 40% of the white daughters remained in wealthy households.

    Did a wealthy white girl regress because she married a wealthy man to support her ? According to Chetty a white daughter of wealth falls into the middle class if she takes a part time teaching position while raising her kids, while being married to a millionaire. She is put in the same middle class category with a single Black mother struggling to make ends meet while working as a substitute teacher.

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  29. “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It’s probably the first time in history that a black woman isn’t big-upping black women. Any other time it’s “sistah powah,” “white women wear weave too,” “white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us.”

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    Not rare at all in the academic SJW set, where it is a trope that "white allies" need to "shut up and listen" and not praise black women using stereotypes like "strong."

    As long as I am reporting on the the other side, another new trope is "Some women have penises." Bigoted lesbians who don't want to have sex with women who have penises are TERFs who impose a "cotton ceiling" on their well hung sisters.
    , @BenKenobi
    Perhaps the source of their constant exhaustion is being a lumbering land-whale and not their politics?
    , @TGGP
    Actually, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein appears to be mixed-race, listed as both African-American & Jewish on her wikipedia page.
    , @ogunsiron

    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote
     
    Historian and philosopher of science now ? Not too long ago she was (embarassingly) a physicist.
    It'd be best if she weren't part of the academy at all and no one ever listened to her, but it's good that pretending to be a physicist turned out to be too "exhausting". #emotionalLabor
    , @Anonymous

    sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman
     
    Does she know what "reify" means? (BTW surely SJW should spell it re_ï_fy to make it look more French and even more sophisticated?)
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  30. @sailer's_choice
    With a sample size of 1800 black women representing the 99.93rd percentile of black parental income, I wonder how many are the children of athletes and currently receive income related to that athletic talent (i.e.; not primarily from intellectual capacity). So again, bell curves everywhere.

    Almost 80% of NFL players go broke with five years of retirement and the percentage for the NBA is almost as high. There really aren’t many options for women athletes to earn a lot money because of their own talent. WNBA salaries are low and you can count the number in tennis on one hand. The entertainment industry would likely have a significant higher number than sports. I think the number of affirmative action hires in corporate America would be at least half of the total.

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  31. @Doug
    > It’s sort of interesting that a black woman who grew up in The One Percent (i.e., the 99th percent of entire population’s income distribution, not the 99th percent of black income) is likely to grow up to earn about as much individually as a white woman who grew up in The One Percent.

    One effect here is the difference in career orientation. The marriage market is much more favorable for college-educated white women than college-educated black women. Many high IQ white women will choose "lifestyle careers" based on the expectation of marrying a high IQ, high earning husband. Black women don't have the luxury of being able to count on that, so they tend to focus on high-earning careers.

    Secondarily, whites have higher saving rates than blacks. Even controlling for income. A white family in the top decile is likely to have accumulated a very large nest egg, which the adult kids can count on to buffer their lifestyle. You get a lot of white girls from high income families who use their trust fund to pursue interesting and high-status but low paying careers like being a journalist or an artist.

    I'd like to see Chetty's results, but controlled for career choice. My guess is the black/white women gap would basically be the same as the black/white male gap.

    Many high IQ white women will choose “lifestyle careers” based on the expectation of marrying a high IQ, high earning husband.

    Indeed, and there are vast numbers of these sorts of jobs. Working in art galleries, various museum curator / fund raiser jobs, NGO jobs, “style” writers of all sorts, publishing, public relations, theater, and so on. These jobs are filled by white women, increasingly by American-educated Asian women, and gay or soy-boy men. What there are very few of are black or Mestizo Hispanic women (plenty of Conquistador types though).

    These jobs are all designed to flatter female/gay vanity in one way or the other, whether it be an “I’m so artistic” vibe or an “I’m saving the world” vibe, or simply because one gets to hob-nob with the great and good and sip Prosecco at some bullshit function for some bullshit artist like Jeff Koons.

    Yet the women toiling at the low paying jobs somehow manage to live in expensive places like Brooklyn or San Francisco or Austin. How does that happen? Precisely: wealthy family or wealthy husband. But they are quite deliberately taking a lower-paying job because it fits their emotional needs, and what else are you going to do with that art history degree from Dartmouth?

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  32. Anonymous[341] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.

    In the elite fields (biglaw, finance/consulting, medicine) AA are laughably underqualified. journalists, who most assuredly got their bs jobs through nepotism, are always out to accuse others of the same–that somehow white male privilege must balance out the presumably minor AA “bump.” Well, no.

    Most people (including conservatives who dislike AA) have no idea how bad it really is. My sister’s medical school had remedial classes for black students. Medical school, not undergrad. Remedial classes for people who will be in teaching hospitals wearing their little white coat and seeing patients in a year.

    Lower on the income scale we have, you know, the entire government of the United States which switched from the civil service exam to being just another welfare program.

    The amount of money and benefits and fake jobs these underprivileged people get is truly breathtaking. The forgotten urban youth (btw here’s Mark Zuckerberg to talk to Oprah about donating $100mm to one crappy city’s schools).

    I have two social workers in my extended family. That’s an entire profession of white women we pay to go play surrogate to dysfunctional but highly fecund families of black criminals. Madness.

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    • Replies: @bartok
    There are almost no Blacks in consulting/biglaw past year 3/wall st.

    The cognitive demands of these jobs are high, and the workload far higher. They're inhuman for Whites and out of the question for Blacks.
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  33. This seems to be a Thing among female SJWs lately: announcing how exhausted you are by people not automatically submitting to your arguments.

    If nobody else is going to do it, I will.

    Once more unto the Hillary Clinton doing the James Cleveland song “I don’t feel no ways tired” in a phony Black accent. Black gospel singer James Cleveland was born in 1931 and he died in 1991. That means Cleveland croaked before he could be eligible for Social Security and Medicare. I hereby accuse White woman Hillary Clinton of ripping off the guy’s song to get Black votes and to participating in a government plot to deny Black guys their government retirement loot by keeping the eligibility age so high.

    Hillary Clinton ain’t no ways tired of screwing Black guys out of their Social Security and Medicare. This stuff about Hillary Clinton is exhausting.

    Baby boomer Hillary Clinton is a White woman who nickels and dimes Black men out of their retirement benefits while Hillary herself will most likely live at least as long as Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

    News reports suggest that Ruth Bader Ginsburg is now lifting weights. There have been no reports of roid rage as yet in relation to Ginsburg.

    Hillary Clinton isn’t tired of screwing over Black men on retirement benefits(2007):

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    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Charles, the article I saw about Ginsburg's workout had to be a cover for some physical or mental problem that is manifesting itself. You know, Ruth be so fit and alert, unlike Nancy Pelosi who is visibly slipping.
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  34. I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — “queer” and “agender”, prefers the pronoun “they”, apparently a black mother and a white father, a PhD physicist turned SJW — is more interesting than this tiresome Chetty paper.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    > "I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — “queer” and “agender”"

    Not quite clear to me how one can be both "queer" and "agender"? (I had to google "agender" to make sure that it means what it seems to mean. It does seem to mean "without gender".) Does not make much sense to say that (a) X is without gender, and (b) X is attracted to people of the same gender?

    What a weird world we live in.
    , @Anonymous
    Chandra Prescod-Weinstein is a DeGrasse Tyson style character. She's supposedly an astrophysicist, but the grant that she is principle investigator on is about the lack of diversity in physics and how to decolonize it. Very, very typical, get the law degree and wash out of law, get the STEM PhD and end up not quite doing the stuff you got the PhD in ... not even doing STEM, but rather doing some sort of amateur sociology.

    She has the typical unearned hyper confidence that blacks tend to have, bristling at anyone who requests that she speak on anything but astrophysics. Of course, speaking about STEM is a good way to keep yourself busy when you can't quite get a job or grant doing STEM.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That's a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she's got black Pokemon points!

    http://mlkscholars.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/prescod-weinstein.jpg

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?


    When she's not looking for racism, she's looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com
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  35. 1. I read girl science papers on my podcast. The word autoethnographic comes up a lot. Hilarity always follows. The field of “gender studies” is far more bizarre than most realize.

    2. Philosopher of science is for people who have no math or science, but they bleeping love science! I’ll get some push back on this, but I think the philosophy of science stuff is mostly nonsense. It’s a way to appropriate the authority of science in order to secure authority over it. It’s base stealing.

    3. The well orchestrated campaign to say this Chetty study “debunks” the Bell Curve and the cognitive sciences will be with us forever.

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  36. @Steve Sailer
    Good question.

    So if, say, the white parental income is a standard deviation higher than the black parental income. And say that regression toward the mean is 50%, than two women who grew up in homes with the same parental income in absolute terms, which would be 2 standard deviations of the mean for the black family and one standard deviation for the white family, then the black woman should regress 1.0 standard deviations and white woman only 0.5 standard deviations, leaving a 0.5 standard deviation difference to explain (e.g., affirmative action, etc.)

    The general formula for the expected difference between white and black IQ among children raised by parents of the same mean IQ is

    IQ_Controlling_For_Parent_IQ = (1-heritability) * Overall_IQ_Gap

    Proof:
    Expected White IQ: (1-heritability)*White_Mean + heritability*Parent_IQ
    Expected Black. IQ: (1-heritability)*Black_Mean + heritability*Parent_IQ
    Subtract the two. If the parent IQ is the same, you get the above formula.

    Note that the higher heritability is, the less regression to the mean, and therefore the less difference you expect to see between races given equal parent IQ. If heritability is, say, 0.75, then the parent-controlled gap would be only 3.75 points – pretty hard to notice without a large sample.

    So why don’t we see a gap arising in female income even when controlling for parent income? Let’s be honest with ourselves: it’s surprising. If you had asked me before, I’d have predicted a modest gap with high confidence. What’s going on? I figure it has something to do with all the complications surrounding work for women and how that differs between the races. E.g. white women less likely to work as hard because they are more likely to marry a productive white male, etc. Various other ideas shared here.

    I *don’t* think that Steve’s agonizing over white vs black quantiles in the above post is very illuminating.

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  37. This is all so confusing. I thought all black women lived liked the “Real Housewives of Atlanta” or Beverley Hills. Sorry to hear that they aren’t doing that well. Need more shows like the “Real housewives of Flint or Trenton or Baltimore.” On the other hand, the black men’s numbers seem real as they all go straight from school to prison in the Magic Pipeline.

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    • Replies: @Ed
    Reality TV is a great place to witness the downward mobility of blacks. The main star of RHOA, Nene is a former stripper with two sons. She marries a client, who is in real estate and provides a more stable and affluent living.

    Anyway her oldest son didn’t even go to college or dropped out soon after. Got some girl pregnant and worked at Wal-Mart. Not sure what he does now.
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  38. Anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:
    @International Jew
    I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — "queer" and "agender", prefers the pronoun "they", apparently a black mother and a white father, a PhD physicist turned SJW — is more interesting than this tiresome Chetty paper.

    > “I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — “queer” and “agender””

    Not quite clear to me how one can be both “queer” and “agender”? (I had to google “agender” to make sure that it means what it seems to mean. It does seem to mean “without gender”.) Does not make much sense to say that (a) X is without gender, and (b) X is attracted to people of the same gender?

    What a weird world we live in.

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    • Replies: @International Jew
    This would be a return to the traditional meaning of queer and as such, I welcome it.
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  39. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:
    @International Jew
    I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — "queer" and "agender", prefers the pronoun "they", apparently a black mother and a white father, a PhD physicist turned SJW — is more interesting than this tiresome Chetty paper.

    Chandra Prescod-Weinstein is a DeGrasse Tyson style character. She’s supposedly an astrophysicist, but the grant that she is principle investigator on is about the lack of diversity in physics and how to decolonize it. Very, very typical, get the law degree and wash out of law, get the STEM PhD and end up not quite doing the stuff you got the PhD in … not even doing STEM, but rather doing some sort of amateur sociology.

    She has the typical unearned hyper confidence that blacks tend to have, bristling at anyone who requests that she speak on anything but astrophysics. Of course, speaking about STEM is a good way to keep yourself busy when you can’t quite get a job or grant doing STEM.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Overproduction of PhDs is getting increasingly annoying.
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  40. @countenance
    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It's probably the first time in history that a black woman isn't big-upping black women. Any other time it's "sistah powah," "white women wear weave too," "white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us."

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

    Not rare at all in the academic SJW set, where it is a trope that “white allies” need to “shut up and listen” and not praise black women using stereotypes like “strong.”

    As long as I am reporting on the the other side, another new trope is “Some women have penises.” Bigoted lesbians who don’t want to have sex with women who have penises are TERFs who impose a “cotton ceiling” on their well hung sisters.

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    • Replies: @International Jew
    “Some women have penises.”

    How many fingers, Winston?
    https://youtu.be/wTFV9w4B0eg
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  41. I’m surprised they quoted all the “supers.” That’s like putting in all the “uhs”, though I do wish they would do it more often. Should be mandatory for pols.

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  42. OT: Anyone notice that Russian psyop/Cambridge Analytica was basically Cass Sunstein’s ‘cognitive infilatration’ applied at scale?

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    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    “Sunstein is said to be the worst of infectants.” — Judge Reinhold
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  43. According to his own words from tweet one, Havard Profesor David Deming misunderstood the “most important” aspect of Raj Chetty’s paper. That’s as bad as possible, isn’t it?

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  44. anonymous[323] • Disclaimer says:

    used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,”

    Huh, what myth? I’ve never heard such a thing or perhaps I wasn’t paying attention. If by any chance a person lives around an area with some real live actual black people then one can see the gigantic fatsos waddling around munching on chips. Superhuman is not a word that comes to mind.
    Apart from the IQ angle I’d say one very important factor is culture. Most blacks aren’t going to work themselves to death. In a city like Chicago a very large percent of adult black males have a criminal record. It’s been estimated that there’s about seventy-thousand gang members in the city and most are black. A two parent home is uncommon. This list can be expanded but the point is that all these cultural factors militate against them being high wage earners in a conventional setting. It’s their dispositions, their choices that make the difference.

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  45. What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    I don’t think you hire Bolton unless this is the plan.

    I hope they are not dumb enough to attempt an occupation of Iran.

    That leaves a heavy bombardment. Can we not waste tons of money on hundreds of very expensive cruise missles like the Syria airfield strike? Take out the air defenses and after that stick to B-52s and our older fighters dropping dumb and older gen smart bombs.

    Other options include taking out the AQ/ISIS and Iran linked factions in the Yemen civil war and/or removing the government of Qatar in favor of another member of the royal family who will serve US/Saudi/Israel interests.

    Closer to home, we could regeme change Cuba or Venezuela.

    My preference is to do none of these, but what is the least bad option? My least favorite option next to ground troops in Iran is getting involved in Yemen with ground troops.

    Best bet IMO is a lightening invasion of Qatar, in and out, merely replacing the head royal. We already have soldiers there, will be simple.

    Venezuela could be fast too. The last few semi free elections went to the opposition but were not honored by the communist regime. The opposition has majority overall support, close to complete support of the elite and middle classes, and has partial control of some regional and local governments. Could be as easy as removing everyone in Maduro’s party from office and letting the remaining people work things out.

    Imagine Trumps support level if he quickly and cheaply took out two hostile anti American regimes! This would also be the first real wars we watched with new gen drones and on 4K TV. Suddenly the media would actually like Trump.

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    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    President Trump should do the opposite of whatever John Bolton and Larry Kudlow say and Trump will be sure to make wise decisions.

    Baby Boomer John Bolton was a fanatical backer of the Iraq War debacle. I bet he hasn't changed his mind.

    Baby Boomer Larry Kudlow loves sovereignty-sapping trade deal scams. Mr. Kudlow has had severe problems with drugs; that is not a good sign of spiritual stability. I think Larry's soul is putrid.
    , @Anonymous
    What was this nonsense.
    , @J.Ross
    So you think we're stupid and totally voiceless? I wish the neocons would be dumb enough to try this, the result would not be what you expect, but it might break some deadlock.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?
     
    Any war will make things worse for Trump. Stupid wars are part of why he got elected. If he launches one, it won't just be his impeachment that will be certain. It will be his removal from office.
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  46. OT, but there’s an op-ed at the Times by David Reich:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/sunday/genetics-race.html

    A lot more honest than most such accounts, but he goes out of his way to deplore Nicholas Wade, Harpending, and Watson for being prematurely right.

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    • Replies: @candid_observer
    Basically, Reich declares that we need to prepare ourselves for the upcoming results from geneticists which we will find disturbing.

    And what might those results be?

    Why, of course, that exactly the sorts of terrible things that Wade, Harpending, and Watson were claiming or speculating might be true.
    , @res
    I can't believe he actually went here:

    This study has been joined by others finding genetic predictors of behavior. One of these, led by the geneticist Danielle Posthuma, studied more than 70,000 people and found genetic variations in more than 20 genes that were predictive of performance on intelligence tests.

    Is performance on an intelligence test or the number of years of school a person attends shaped by the way a person is brought up? Of course. But does it measure something having to do with some aspect of behavior or cognition? Almost certainly. And since all traits influenced by genetics are expected to differ across populations (because the frequencies of genetic variations are rarely exactly the same across populations), the genetic influences on behavior and cognition will differ across populations, too.
     
    And here (BTW, the last sentence is a great soundbite):

    You will sometimes hear that any biological differences among populations are likely to be small, because humans have diverged too recently from common ancestors for substantial differences to have arisen under the pressure of natural selection. This is not true. The ancestors of East Asians, Europeans, West Africans and Australians were, until recently, almost completely isolated from one another for 40,000 years or longer, which is more than sufficient time for the forces of evolution to work. Indeed, the study led by Dr. Kong showed that in Iceland, there has been measurable genetic selection against the genetic variations that predict more years of education in that population just within the last century.
     
    After that he starts back pedaling by deploring the people you said, but still...

    The comments are pretty typical, but I was surprised to see this as a NYT Pick:

    BarrowK NC 4 hours ago
    "It is important to face whatever science will reveal without prejudging the outcome and with the confidence that we can be mature enough to handle any findings." Fat chance. What if many stereotypes are, in fact, confirmed by genetic research? What is the likelihood that ideologues of the left and right will have the maturity to handle it. Non-existent.
     
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  47. Where have we heard of a one standard deviation race gap before?

    The shere number of often times hilariously wrong Chetty-interpretations***** from day one on, when the study was published seems to indicate, that your question is still not that easy to be answered, in our days of the miracles and wonder

    ***** cf. the Charles Murray remark at the beginnign of your Taki’s Magazine article about Chetty

    Read More
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  48. “So, for Chetty to find that black women who grew up at the extreme highest levels of black income to earn the same income as youngish adults versus as white women who grew up as more moderate percentiles of white income isn’t saying something all that astonishing.”

    Then this begs the question: Why didn’t Chetty select black women and white women from the same percentiles of US society to conduct his research? It’s almost as if he subconsciously top loaded blacks to give them a heads up ahead of whites in order to achieve a desired outcome, but the whites in his survey appeared to have caught up to the blacks anyway.

    If this were a 100 meter sprint race, it’s akin to Chetty placing the black women about thirty meters to the finish line while the white women have to remain in the starting block. While the black women don’t actually manage to win the sprint race, they do in fact appear to manage a “tie” with the white women (who actually caught up to their rival and then passed them at the finish line even though they had to start out far behind back at the starting block).

    Question to ask is why didn’t Chetty select black women from the same percentile as white women?

    That’s the message I took from reading Steve’s analysis. The question is, is the answer self-evident to Chetty? And if it is, when can we expect him to publicly state the answer?

    Read More
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  49. @International Jew
    I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — "queer" and "agender", prefers the pronoun "they", apparently a black mother and a white father, a PhD physicist turned SJW — is more interesting than this tiresome Chetty paper.

    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That’s a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she’s got black Pokemon points!

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?

    When she’s not looking for racism, she’s looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com

    Read More
    • LOL: Autochthon
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein first came to public attention in the wake of the Damore Google memo incident. Scroll her Twitter feed back to that and you'll find a bunch of foul-mouthed tweets.

    A Slate piece by her at the time, not on astrophysics:

    Stop Equating Science with Truth
    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/evolutionary_psychology_is_the_most_obvious_example_of_how_science_is_flawed.html

    She also became involved in dust-up where she was perceived as calling Taylor Swift a Nazi. She wrote 5,000 words about that on Medium. Her astrophysics research must not be that grueling for her to have this kind of free time:

    https://medium.com/@chanda/why-i-took-a-break-from-twitter-e4aeb3bb4777

    Check out her 86 other Medium posts. She seems to get involved in all manner of controversies, none of which involve her actually doing any astrophysics.

    https://medium.com/@chanda

    For someone who doesn't look black, she seems to attract a lot of anti-black racism, or so she says

    Here she advocates for hiring more black physics professors, even though they haven't done any research or accomplished anything in physics, because they are needed for counseling work with brittle, emotionally fragile black physics students:

    https://medium.com/thsppl/still-working-for-free-the-unpaid-labor-of-blackademics-dfa84c200ff0
    , @European-American
    Triggers alert, some sloppy editing on Wikipedia:

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor's of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Her thesis, "A study of winds in active galactic nuclei", was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. She then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled "Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology" under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo's Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American woman in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

    ...

    Prescod-Weinstein identifies as queer and agender.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanda_Prescod-Weinstein
     

    , @Anthony Wayne
    The “Unfortunate Honker” corollary to Sailer’s First Law of Female Journalism
    , @Anonymous

    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That’s a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she’s got black Pokemon points!
     
    Her full name, from her Ph.D. thesis:

    Chanda Rosalyn Sojourner Prescod-Weinstein


    https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/5498/Prescod-Weinstein_Chanda.pdf;sequence=3

    From the Acknowledgements:

    The Igbo saying Ora na-azu nwa means that the community raises the child. In my case, it has been many communities. An extraordinary number of extraordinarypeople helped get me to where I am now.
     
    This is only the first of many Igbo quotes. Aren't the Igbo the Weinsteins of East Africa?

    My sister Maya Trinidad Maldonado-Weinstein ...

    My step-mother Maria is fiercely intelligent ...

    Mijn stiefvader Maarten ...

    My Grandma Elsa, Grandpa Stanley, Uncle Peter, Auntie Rosaline, and mother survived a difficult passage, leaving Barbados to come and make way for me and my cousins ...
     
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  50. @candid_observer
    OT, but there's an op-ed at the Times by David Reich:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/sunday/genetics-race.html

    A lot more honest than most such accounts, but he goes out of his way to deplore Nicholas Wade, Harpending, and Watson for being prematurely right.

    Basically, Reich declares that we need to prepare ourselves for the upcoming results from geneticists which we will find disturbing.

    And what might those results be?

    Why, of course, that exactly the sorts of terrible things that Wade, Harpending, and Watson were claiming or speculating might be true.

    Read More
    • Agree: Benjaminl
    • Replies: @Lot
    It wasn't a bad article until the Wade/Watson smear started.

    "claiming or speculating"

    Hahaha, it is just speculative there are genetic IQ differences, sure. That part of the article was awful. But the worst was repeating a private conservative with the elderly Watson in the NYT.
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  51. I haven’t seen any convincing explanation of Chetty’s finding in the iSteve threads thus far, but this post is getting closer.

    First of all: did Chetty really find that “black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same”? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.

    2. The IQ effects are more severe than “regression to the mean”. Black parents (on average) have lower IQ than white parents of the same income and geographic location. Reasons include the known test-score distributions, affirmative action, and differences in career choices. Black residents of a middle- or upper-class white town will have similar family incomes earned in (relatively) lower IQ occupations. So there is more to explain than one might think.

    3. IQ alone is a mediocre predictor of individual income. If you consider earnings potential as driven by multiple factors such as IQ, work ethic, social skills, etc — then equalizing the parental incomes makes the black parents higher than the whites on the non-IQ factors. The overall package of traits, “relevant to earnings” as Chetty puts it, is what gets transmitted to the children and is the thing that regresses to the mean. But then equalizing the parent incomes does eliminate the gap even if it does not eliminate the test-score Gap.

    4. Social hierarchy and identity is structured around ability (physical and mental) for boys, and social and sexual traits for girls. For girls this is relatively independent of earnings potential, but due to items #2 and 3 above, for black boys growing up around whites of similar income, it means Mismatch and being placed on lower-earning nonacademic tracks such as athletics, “leadership” and juvenile delinquency. That is how American schooling works out in desegregated settings, and why black males in middle-class black neighborhoods, such as the oases Chetty identified, do better; there is more room for them to grow in ways relevant to a career, without being pushed down the totem pole by whites and Asians at every step along the way.

    5. HBD on the non-IQ factors helps black women’s income for many of the same reasons it hurts black men’s income.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Antlitz Grollheim
    To what extent does being aware of these processes obviate them? The internet is saturated with high quality analyses of everything.

    It must be midnight, time for sleep.
    , @res

    First of all: did Chetty really find that “black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same”? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.
     
    The closest thing I saw is FIGURE VIII: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Black-White Income Gap on page 83. My understanding is that your quoted statement is supported by the second bar (Par. Inc) showing 1-2 percent gaps in favor of black women. However, the other marriage based factors depressing white female income we have been discussing call that conclusion into question IMHO.

    The unconditional version (not conditioning on parental income, only on other family factors) is ONLINE APPENDIX FIGURE VI: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Unconditional Black-White Gap on page 97.

    The paper with the supplemental material is 106 pages long! Plus there are the data tables at http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data/
    I have missed several things and am glad we have a number of people looking at this. Thanks for providing both your analyses and a forum to discuss this, Steve.
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  52. @Lot
    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    I don't think you hire Bolton unless this is the plan.

    I hope they are not dumb enough to attempt an occupation of Iran.

    That leaves a heavy bombardment. Can we not waste tons of money on hundreds of very expensive cruise missles like the Syria airfield strike? Take out the air defenses and after that stick to B-52s and our older fighters dropping dumb and older gen smart bombs.

    Other options include taking out the AQ/ISIS and Iran linked factions in the Yemen civil war and/or removing the government of Qatar in favor of another member of the royal family who will serve US/Saudi/Israel interests.

    Closer to home, we could regeme change Cuba or Venezuela.

    My preference is to do none of these, but what is the least bad option? My least favorite option next to ground troops in Iran is getting involved in Yemen with ground troops.

    Best bet IMO is a lightening invasion of Qatar, in and out, merely replacing the head royal. We already have soldiers there, will be simple.

    Venezuela could be fast too. The last few semi free elections went to the opposition but were not honored by the communist regime. The opposition has majority overall support, close to complete support of the elite and middle classes, and has partial control of some regional and local governments. Could be as easy as removing everyone in Maduro's party from office and letting the remaining people work things out.

    Imagine Trumps support level if he quickly and cheaply took out two hostile anti American regimes! This would also be the first real wars we watched with new gen drones and on 4K TV. Suddenly the media would actually like Trump.

    President Trump should do the opposite of whatever John Bolton and Larry Kudlow say and Trump will be sure to make wise decisions.

    Baby Boomer John Bolton was a fanatical backer of the Iraq War debacle. I bet he hasn’t changed his mind.

    Baby Boomer Larry Kudlow loves sovereignty-sapping trade deal scams. Mr. Kudlow has had severe problems with drugs; that is not a good sign of spiritual stability. I think Larry’s soul is putrid.

    Read More
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  53. Chanda Prescod-Weinstein is a historian and philosopher of science only because she says she is. Her CV has no reference to any historical or philosophical graduate research, not that it is the only way to learn these fields.

    Steve has much more qualification to be a historian and philosopher of science.

    Read More
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  54. @academic gossip
    I haven't seen any convincing explanation of Chetty's finding in the iSteve threads thus far, but this post is getting closer.

    First of all: did Chetty really find that "black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same"? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.

    2. The IQ effects are more severe than "regression to the mean". Black parents (on average) have lower IQ than white parents of the same income and geographic location. Reasons include the known test-score distributions, affirmative action, and differences in career choices. Black residents of a middle- or upper-class white town will have similar family incomes earned in (relatively) lower IQ occupations. So there is more to explain than one might think.

    3. IQ alone is a mediocre predictor of individual income. If you consider earnings potential as driven by multiple factors such as IQ, work ethic, social skills, etc -- then equalizing the parental incomes makes the black parents higher than the whites on the non-IQ factors. The overall package of traits, "relevant to earnings" as Chetty puts it, is what gets transmitted to the children and is the thing that regresses to the mean. But then equalizing the parent incomes does eliminate the gap even if it does not eliminate the test-score Gap.

    4. Social hierarchy and identity is structured around ability (physical and mental) for boys, and social and sexual traits for girls. For girls this is relatively independent of earnings potential, but due to items #2 and 3 above, for black boys growing up around whites of similar income, it means Mismatch and being placed on lower-earning nonacademic tracks such as athletics, "leadership" and juvenile delinquency. That is how American schooling works out in desegregated settings, and why black males in middle-class black neighborhoods, such as the oases Chetty identified, do better; there is more room for them to grow in ways relevant to a career, without being pushed down the totem pole by whites and Asians at every step along the way.

    5. HBD on the non-IQ factors helps black women's income for many of the same reasons it hurts black men's income.

    To what extent does being aware of these processes obviate them? The internet is saturated with high quality analyses of everything.

    It must be midnight, time for sleep.

    Read More
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  55. Anonymous[226] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That's a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she's got black Pokemon points!

    http://mlkscholars.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/prescod-weinstein.jpg

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?


    When she's not looking for racism, she's looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein first came to public attention in the wake of the Damore Google memo incident. Scroll her Twitter feed back to that and you’ll find a bunch of foul-mouthed tweets.

    A Slate piece by her at the time, not on astrophysics:

    Stop Equating Science with Truth

    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/evolutionary_psychology_is_the_most_obvious_example_of_how_science_is_flawed.html

    She also became involved in dust-up where she was perceived as calling Taylor Swift a Nazi. She wrote 5,000 words about that on Medium. Her astrophysics research must not be that grueling for her to have this kind of free time:

    https://medium.com/@chanda/why-i-took-a-break-from-twitter-e4aeb3bb4777

    Check out her 86 other Medium posts. She seems to get involved in all manner of controversies, none of which involve her actually doing any astrophysics.

    https://medium.com/@chanda

    For someone who doesn’t look black, she seems to attract a lot of anti-black racism, or so she says

    Here she advocates for hiring more black physics professors, even though they haven’t done any research or accomplished anything in physics, because they are needed for counseling work with brittle, emotionally fragile black physics students:

    https://medium.com/thsppl/still-working-for-free-the-unpaid-labor-of-blackademics-dfa84c200ff0

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    She must be from the Neil deGrasse Tyson school of cutting-edge astrophysics. If they truly wanted to find dark matter, all they would really need to do is look at their own gravitational field. It's a growing one in which there appears to be far more gravitas than there actually is.
    , @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    This is more than just passing, she really doesn't look it.

    Be prepared for an expose on Chandra along the lines of Rachael Dolezal. It could definitely happen in her case.
    , @candid_observer
    Say what you will, this SJW is one busy beaver, or beavers.

    Of course they are exhausted. All of their black bodies have been worked to the bone.
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  56. @Steve Sailer
    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Chetty has a top 0.1% of parents income, where I think athletes would be common. I've known a couple of black kids whose dads were superstar athletes back in the 1990s. But I don't know how long they made 99.9th percentile incomes and they weren't around much.

    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Any thoughts on how Chetty’s methodology impacts this question?

    From page 13, section III.B I see (BTW, the last sentence is an interesting subtlety):

    Variable Definitions for Parents.

    Income. Our primary measure of parent income is total pre-tax income at the household level, which we label parent family or household income.13 In years where a parent files a tax return, we define household income as Adjusted Gross Income (as reported on the 1040 tax return) plus tax-exempt interest income and the non-taxable portion of Social Security and Disability benefits. In years where a parent does not file a tax return, household income is coded as zero.14 Following Chetty et al. (2014), we define our baseline parental income measure as the mean of parents’ household income over five years: 1994, 1995, and 1998-2000, as tax records are unavailable in 1996 and 1997.15 We exclude children whose mean parent income is zero or negative (1.0% of children) because parents who file tax returns (as is required to link them to a child) reporting negative or zero income typically have large capital losses, which are a proxy for having significant wealth.

    I think using a five year mean still allows high earners with spiky incomes to show up in the 1%, but the two year gap in the middle might reduce the number of athletes who tend to have shorter careers. Then again, $1M+ athlete/entertainer incomes are enough larger than typical incomes none of that might matter.

    Read More
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  57. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    I don't think you hire Bolton unless this is the plan.

    I hope they are not dumb enough to attempt an occupation of Iran.

    That leaves a heavy bombardment. Can we not waste tons of money on hundreds of very expensive cruise missles like the Syria airfield strike? Take out the air defenses and after that stick to B-52s and our older fighters dropping dumb and older gen smart bombs.

    Other options include taking out the AQ/ISIS and Iran linked factions in the Yemen civil war and/or removing the government of Qatar in favor of another member of the royal family who will serve US/Saudi/Israel interests.

    Closer to home, we could regeme change Cuba or Venezuela.

    My preference is to do none of these, but what is the least bad option? My least favorite option next to ground troops in Iran is getting involved in Yemen with ground troops.

    Best bet IMO is a lightening invasion of Qatar, in and out, merely replacing the head royal. We already have soldiers there, will be simple.

    Venezuela could be fast too. The last few semi free elections went to the opposition but were not honored by the communist regime. The opposition has majority overall support, close to complete support of the elite and middle classes, and has partial control of some regional and local governments. Could be as easy as removing everyone in Maduro's party from office and letting the remaining people work things out.

    Imagine Trumps support level if he quickly and cheaply took out two hostile anti American regimes! This would also be the first real wars we watched with new gen drones and on 4K TV. Suddenly the media would actually like Trump.

    What was this nonsense.

    Read More
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  58. @candid_observer
    Basically, Reich declares that we need to prepare ourselves for the upcoming results from geneticists which we will find disturbing.

    And what might those results be?

    Why, of course, that exactly the sorts of terrible things that Wade, Harpending, and Watson were claiming or speculating might be true.

    It wasn’t a bad article until the Wade/Watson smear started.

    “claiming or speculating”

    Hahaha, it is just speculative there are genetic IQ differences, sure. That part of the article was awful. But the worst was repeating a private conservative with the elderly Watson in the NYT.

    Read More
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  59. @candid_observer
    OT, but there's an op-ed at the Times by David Reich:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/sunday/genetics-race.html

    A lot more honest than most such accounts, but he goes out of his way to deplore Nicholas Wade, Harpending, and Watson for being prematurely right.

    I can’t believe he actually went here:

    This study has been joined by others finding genetic predictors of behavior. One of these, led by the geneticist Danielle Posthuma, studied more than 70,000 people and found genetic variations in more than 20 genes that were predictive of performance on intelligence tests.

    Is performance on an intelligence test or the number of years of school a person attends shaped by the way a person is brought up? Of course. But does it measure something having to do with some aspect of behavior or cognition? Almost certainly. And since all traits influenced by genetics are expected to differ across populations (because the frequencies of genetic variations are rarely exactly the same across populations), the genetic influences on behavior and cognition will differ across populations, too.

    And here (BTW, the last sentence is a great soundbite):

    You will sometimes hear that any biological differences among populations are likely to be small, because humans have diverged too recently from common ancestors for substantial differences to have arisen under the pressure of natural selection. This is not true. The ancestors of East Asians, Europeans, West Africans and Australians were, until recently, almost completely isolated from one another for 40,000 years or longer, which is more than sufficient time for the forces of evolution to work. Indeed, the study led by Dr. Kong showed that in Iceland, there has been measurable genetic selection against the genetic variations that predict more years of education in that population just within the last century.

    After that he starts back pedaling by deploring the people you said, but still…

    The comments are pretty typical, but I was surprised to see this as a NYT Pick:

    BarrowK NC 4 hours ago
    “It is important to face whatever science will reveal without prejudging the outcome and with the confidence that we can be mature enough to handle any findings.” Fat chance. What if many stereotypes are, in fact, confirmed by genetic research? What is the likelihood that ideologues of the left and right will have the maturity to handle it. Non-existent.

    Read More
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  60. The conundrum here is that black men are affected by income regression to the mean stronger than women. It does suggest something other than IQ is in play.

    I’m brainstorming possible causal factors.

    1. Liberals are right and black men face a lot of racism
    2. Rich black sons make much poorer choices than rich black daughters
    3. Rich black daughters make particularly good choices for their own income
    4. Rich white daughters make particularly bad choices for their own income (i.e. if rich white girls made better choices, they would perform closer to their expected level and the mobility gap would reappear between white girls and black girls)

    Is Chetty using household or individual income? What are the differences in marriage rates between white and black women from high income families? And between black men and black women from high income families (i.e. do rich black daughters tend to settle down with a high earner while rich black sons play the field)?

    How do white women compare with white men? If it’s simply a case of white women taking less burdensome jobs (HR, PR, fashion) and marrying well, then that would show up in a disparity in mobility rates between white women and men, but it would disappear if he were using household income.

    As a thought experiment, how much more likely is it for Obama’s daughters to pursue a high income career than Dubya’s daughters? How much more likely are Obama’s daughters to marry a rich white guy than a hypothetical Obama son to marry a high earning woman? The interplay of marriage rates, career choices and household/individual income needs to be sussed out here. I’m too lazy/busy to dig into the data so I’m leaving this for one of the smart iSteve commenters to explore.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Yak-15
    Most likely the larger amount of testosterone and a higher degree of impulsiveness explains the male/male difference. And IQ.

    The women difference is the propensity for black women to go into more lucrative careers than white women because:

    1. They have to due to higher levels of single parentage

    2. They are less likely to be married than their white peers

    3. They have more opportunities and pressure as successful blacks to go into lucrative career fields.

    4. Due to the propensity of blacks not to save, the inability to rely upon daddy for money

    5. “Data point interesting to Chetty” they pursue careers because their likely husbands, black males, are more likely to earn less for iSteve reasons, NYT reasons, or both

    6. The overall propensity for women to achieve greater levels of education. Black women have more reasons to monetize that education. Our society is feminized and that favors women. White women pursue nonsense because they can, blacks put that education to use.

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  61. @academic gossip
    I haven't seen any convincing explanation of Chetty's finding in the iSteve threads thus far, but this post is getting closer.

    First of all: did Chetty really find that "black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same"? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.

    2. The IQ effects are more severe than "regression to the mean". Black parents (on average) have lower IQ than white parents of the same income and geographic location. Reasons include the known test-score distributions, affirmative action, and differences in career choices. Black residents of a middle- or upper-class white town will have similar family incomes earned in (relatively) lower IQ occupations. So there is more to explain than one might think.

    3. IQ alone is a mediocre predictor of individual income. If you consider earnings potential as driven by multiple factors such as IQ, work ethic, social skills, etc -- then equalizing the parental incomes makes the black parents higher than the whites on the non-IQ factors. The overall package of traits, "relevant to earnings" as Chetty puts it, is what gets transmitted to the children and is the thing that regresses to the mean. But then equalizing the parent incomes does eliminate the gap even if it does not eliminate the test-score Gap.

    4. Social hierarchy and identity is structured around ability (physical and mental) for boys, and social and sexual traits for girls. For girls this is relatively independent of earnings potential, but due to items #2 and 3 above, for black boys growing up around whites of similar income, it means Mismatch and being placed on lower-earning nonacademic tracks such as athletics, "leadership" and juvenile delinquency. That is how American schooling works out in desegregated settings, and why black males in middle-class black neighborhoods, such as the oases Chetty identified, do better; there is more room for them to grow in ways relevant to a career, without being pushed down the totem pole by whites and Asians at every step along the way.

    5. HBD on the non-IQ factors helps black women's income for many of the same reasons it hurts black men's income.

    First of all: did Chetty really find that “black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same”? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.

    The closest thing I saw is FIGURE VIII: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Black-White Income Gap on page 83. My understanding is that your quoted statement is supported by the second bar (Par. Inc) showing 1-2 percent gaps in favor of black women. However, the other marriage based factors depressing white female income we have been discussing call that conclusion into question IMHO.

    The unconditional version (not conditioning on parental income, only on other family factors) is ONLINE APPENDIX FIGURE VI: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Unconditional Black-White Gap on page 97.

    The paper with the supplemental material is 106 pages long! Plus there are the data tables at http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data/
    I have missed several things and am glad we have a number of people looking at this. Thanks for providing both your analyses and a forum to discuss this, Steve.

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    • Replies: @academic gossip
    Thanks. The regression output is not provided in the paper. Figure VIII has only the model predictions at 25th and 75 percentiles. The specification is equation (5) on p 24-25 but they don't show the results (coefficients etc).

    I don't yet see an indication that they found anything important about black vs white females, or anything to slay the Gap dragon. The estimate of 1 percent differences at equal parental incomes is badly contradicted by the figure VII on the previous page. Despite controlling for parent income, differences on measures other than income percentile correspond (by considering the horizontal shift between curves) to differences of MUCH more than 1 percentile in parent income.

    The measure that they hype when it is small for black women is quite positive or negative for females of other races so it being close to zero for black women could be an accident of their methodology. It seems to function as an index of "workforce engagement" patterns by race and gender rather than actual earning potential.

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  62. Anonymous[519] • Disclaimer says:

    Hm.I took one look at the name “Chanda Prescod-Weinstein” and knew that she was a Jewish/black mixed-race female like my wife, who she somewhat resembles.

    My wife is also a big fan of that “I’m so tired from all this emotional labor” thing. She keeps throwing it at the wall to see if it will stick. It’s a close cousin to the “XYZ that I don’t want to do is bad for my physical health” which also has an analogue in politics.

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  63. @countenance
    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It's probably the first time in history that a black woman isn't big-upping black women. Any other time it's "sistah powah," "white women wear weave too," "white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us."

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

    Perhaps the source of their constant exhaustion is being a lumbering land-whale and not their politics?

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I hate to admit this because I hate movement, but there is definitely a huge connection between strenuous exercise and stability of mood.
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  64. @Anonymous
    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein first came to public attention in the wake of the Damore Google memo incident. Scroll her Twitter feed back to that and you'll find a bunch of foul-mouthed tweets.

    A Slate piece by her at the time, not on astrophysics:

    Stop Equating Science with Truth
    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/evolutionary_psychology_is_the_most_obvious_example_of_how_science_is_flawed.html

    She also became involved in dust-up where she was perceived as calling Taylor Swift a Nazi. She wrote 5,000 words about that on Medium. Her astrophysics research must not be that grueling for her to have this kind of free time:

    https://medium.com/@chanda/why-i-took-a-break-from-twitter-e4aeb3bb4777

    Check out her 86 other Medium posts. She seems to get involved in all manner of controversies, none of which involve her actually doing any astrophysics.

    https://medium.com/@chanda

    For someone who doesn't look black, she seems to attract a lot of anti-black racism, or so she says

    Here she advocates for hiring more black physics professors, even though they haven't done any research or accomplished anything in physics, because they are needed for counseling work with brittle, emotionally fragile black physics students:

    https://medium.com/thsppl/still-working-for-free-the-unpaid-labor-of-blackademics-dfa84c200ff0

    She must be from the Neil deGrasse Tyson school of cutting-edge astrophysics. If they truly wanted to find dark matter, all they would really need to do is look at their own gravitational field. It’s a growing one in which there appears to be far more gravitas than there actually is.

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  65. @Buzz Mohawk
    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That's a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she's got black Pokemon points!

    http://mlkscholars.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/prescod-weinstein.jpg

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?


    When she's not looking for racism, she's looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com

    Triggers alert, some sloppy editing on Wikipedia:

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor’s of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Her thesis, “A study of winds in active galactic nuclei”, was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. She then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled “Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology” under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo’s Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American woman in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

    Prescod-Weinstein identifies as queer and agender.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanda_Prescod-Weinstein

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I shall assist.

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor’s of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Their thesis, “A study of winds in active galactic nuclei”, was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. They then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled “Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology” under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo’s Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American person of female-bodied anatomy in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

     

    Get me out of this reality stream.
    , @Autochthon
    Being the sixty-third Negro to do x is now noteworthy? I remember some Negro comedian years and years ago doing a hilarious bit about how stupid the whole "first x to y" business is. He wondered if one day, minding his own business, he bought a bunch of asparagus from the grocer, sirens would wail, balloons and confetti fall from the rafters, and a band will strike up, and everyone will burst in to raucous festivities ("Did you say 'asparagus?!' You're the first black man to purchase fresh asparagus!").
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  66. Even Harvard professors like Deming are misreading the results of Chetty’s study

    Chetty is another immigrant we probably did not need. It looks like his studies in this area are actually a detriment because they are leading people to any conclusions but the truth. So after spending 50 plus years on failed social engineering he is just giving more ammunition for those who want to continue to waste more time, energy and wealth on failed policies.

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  67. @Buzz Mohawk
    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That's a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she's got black Pokemon points!

    http://mlkscholars.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/prescod-weinstein.jpg

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?


    When she's not looking for racism, she's looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com

    The “Unfortunate Honker” corollary to Sailer’s First Law of Female Journalism

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  68. @Anonymous
    Chandra Prescod-Weinstein is a DeGrasse Tyson style character. She's supposedly an astrophysicist, but the grant that she is principle investigator on is about the lack of diversity in physics and how to decolonize it. Very, very typical, get the law degree and wash out of law, get the STEM PhD and end up not quite doing the stuff you got the PhD in ... not even doing STEM, but rather doing some sort of amateur sociology.

    She has the typical unearned hyper confidence that blacks tend to have, bristling at anyone who requests that she speak on anything but astrophysics. Of course, speaking about STEM is a good way to keep yourself busy when you can't quite get a job or grant doing STEM.

    Overproduction of PhDs is getting increasingly annoying.

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    • Agree: jim jones, Autochthon
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  69. @European-American
    Triggers alert, some sloppy editing on Wikipedia:

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor's of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Her thesis, "A study of winds in active galactic nuclei", was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. She then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled "Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology" under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo's Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American woman in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

    ...

    Prescod-Weinstein identifies as queer and agender.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanda_Prescod-Weinstein
     

    I shall assist.

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor’s of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Their thesis, “A study of winds in active galactic nuclei”, was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. They then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled “Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology” under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo’s Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American person of female-bodied anatomy in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

    Get me out of this reality stream.

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    • Replies: @European-American
    Thanks...

    I do find it a useful reminder of the fact that, historically, people have believed all sorts of nonsense. And sometimes there are peaks of panicky nonsense.

    It's true that I mourn the seemingly recent time when reality was reasonable. But really, it was part illusion, part product of a sheltered existence.

    Now the "no borders" ideal of technology shatters illusions and tears down protections, so the Internet has us all frantically searching for walls to protect us from the vast amount of nonsense that has always been around but of which we were mercifully unaware.

    I think the next big thing is filters. Personal assistants that protect us from the world's nonsense. So far big tech has not been up to the task, but soon some kind of personal and private AI shield may be the only way to maintain our sanity.
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  70. No veto for the omnibus.

    But “I want the Hispanic community to know that Republicans are much more on your side than democrats”

    Ouch.

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  71. @Lot
    Not rare at all in the academic SJW set, where it is a trope that "white allies" need to "shut up and listen" and not praise black women using stereotypes like "strong."

    As long as I am reporting on the the other side, another new trope is "Some women have penises." Bigoted lesbians who don't want to have sex with women who have penises are TERFs who impose a "cotton ceiling" on their well hung sisters.

    “Some women have penises.”

    How many fingers, Winston?

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    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    I prefer the 1984 1984 to the 1956 1984:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cAKtpCo8fPE

    But to each his own.

    EDIT: Is your clip from ‘56 or ‘54?

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  72. @Anonymous
    > "I think the person of Chanda Prescod-Weinstein — “queer” and “agender”"

    Not quite clear to me how one can be both "queer" and "agender"? (I had to google "agender" to make sure that it means what it seems to mean. It does seem to mean "without gender".) Does not make much sense to say that (a) X is without gender, and (b) X is attracted to people of the same gender?

    What a weird world we live in.

    This would be a return to the traditional meaning of queer and as such, I welcome it.

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  73. “1/21th as much”, “the 99.1st/98.62nd/99.93rd percentile”: Does the Chicago or AP Manual of Style say anything about this variation on how to extend cardinal numbers (one, two, three) to ordinal numbers (first, second, third)?

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  74. Steve, how about making a thread about the omnibus?

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    • Agree: Buzz Mohawk
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  75. @Anon
    Black women seem to be over represented in government jobs, which seem to offer better compensation.

    Empirical experience supports this, and additionally that government security auditors consider them to be remarkably safe bets: they don’t seem to have any great ambitions, obsessions or eccentricities that would lead them to betrayal. Wakanda nationalism is harmless for security concerns.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I should add, my opinion is that the sinecure jobs given to blacks would not work for whites for the most part: a friend who was recognized for his military service was given a sinecure in a three-letter agency to basically make photocopies of old newspapers into microfilm. It was well-paid but after doing that for a year and a half, he became very angry rather than appreciative, said that he felt like his life was being wasted and left to private industry.

    He would rather take on a more challenging, but "fun" job that was equally paid than something repetitive and I got the sense he actually considered it an insult.

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  76. While the NYT description of this study focused on the 1%, Chetty’s analysis doesn’t actually focus on the 1%. It’s a comprehensive analysis of regression to a mean for just about all children born to American legal residents in a certain timeframe (roughly the 90s). So we don’t need to fixate on who is in the black or white 1% of income- the patterns hold through across the income spectrum. We can talk about blacks vs white adult children from the 60th percentile in parental income and have the same discussion.

    If Chetty’s data is accurate, I don’t think he’s wrong for concluding that the results really don’t fit a hereditarian argument very well. It’s not that they completely undermine the arguments for inherent race differences in IQ and associated life outcomes being based in IQ; it’s that the results for women don’t conform to the pattern one would expect to see making those assumptions. If there are two hypotheses as follows:

    1. SES in childhood environment largely determines SES for adults. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of deprivation in childhood.

    2. Genetic factors largely determine major drivers of SES for adults, with those major drivers being general intelligence, conscientiousness, impulse control etc. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of genetic factors (such as lower average IQ) which cause both lower SES in childhood and adulthood.

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind. It’s a perfect linear relationship hinging on dollars collected in income, just the kind of pattern economists want to see. It makes me suspicious of the data because it *is* an economist who is seeing this.

    The regression pattern shown does not fit hypothesis 2 very directly for women. And look, I don’t love to be saying that. Every other data set with robust sample I’ve ever seen points to hypothesis 2. But this data really is not what hypothesis 2 would predict. What we should see if hypothesis 2 were the most salient explanation is the following:

    1. More and more dispersion between black and white women across SES metrics the higher the parental income or being lower across the regression as black men are. If two populations regress to different means, that implies the regression should be most severe for those furthest away from their respective population mean. In essence, a child of white parents with IQ of 105, doesn’t have much mean regression potential in points. But the child of white parents with average IQ 160 has much more likelihood to regress further in terms of IQ points. But in Chetty’s data, there is no pattern of greater dispersion at higher percentiles between races.

    2. The argument that black women earn more because they are trying to be breadwinners while white women are choosing lower pressure careers doesn’t describe the regression across parental income percentiles if we are to assume a hereditarian hypothesis. If white women deliberately avoid maximizing their earnings because they want to spend more time with kids/rely on husband, then what we should see is a flattening effect somewhere along their regression. In essence, a daughter of a household in the 90th percentile of income might well choose to become a teacher instead of maximizing her earnings based on her potential aptitude. But daughters of households in the 75th percentile and 50th would be pursuing similarly paying jobs, so we should be seeing the average white daughter of the 90th percentile household making not much more than one from a lower percentile. But that’s not what we see- the regression never flattens out for white women and the slope of the regression isn’t much different for any of the cohorts studied, so on average white daughters continuously convert their advantage vs. those from lower SES percentiles into higher individual incomes as adults. But they do not demonstrate an advantage over black women from their same parental income rank.

    Given that there exists a tremendous amount of other evidence that hypothesis 2 is correct, then I think it must be the case that hypothesis 2 is still working for this data and that genetics and IQ just impacts women’s lives in complicated ways. Ultimately, there are many many variables of SES that are not analyzed in this study and it’s possible that the disparity between black and white women will manifest more in those variables or even these variables as the cohort gets older. I expect that household wealth and household income will be different for black and white women from the same parental income percentile. I expect that having children within wedlock is markedly different as well.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    So, what we are seeing is, say, black women's individual income regressing one standard deviation rather than 1.5 standard deviations if there were 50% regression toward the mean?
    , @ben tillman

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind.
     
    Is this not simply due to hiring quotas? Aren't employers going to prefer to fill their quotas with black women with a bit more polish acquired in a more-affluent upbringing?
    , @Travis
    The white women of the wealthy have a significant advantage over the black women from wealthy parents. Their household income is actually better than among the white sons of the wealthy.. The white women from affluent backgrounds end up in wealthy households because they have marriage rates twice as high as the black girls from wealthy parents. This is significant and explains why the white women are less likely to work , they are much more likely to be married.
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  77. @AndrewR
    This was Charles Murray's complaint in his book Coming Apart a few years ago: middle/upper-middle class people don't preach what they practice. They tend to have habits and values conducive to desirable life outcomes but they tend to avoid preaching to the lower classes.

    Then again, it's true that marriage isn't a fix-all. If you marry a lazy, broke, violent drug addict, nothing will change about that person except their marital status. In large part, the low marriage rates at the bottom of society are due to the low marriageability of the people. The best solution is probably just eugenics: use carrots and sticks to get proles to not breed.

    True – if the feds offered some kind of refundable tax credit to people under a certain income/age who were childless (and called it something like a personal development credit, on the theory people would use it for school or something similar), that might help. So would free birth control implants for any woman who wanted it. Welfare for single mothers incentivized out of wedlock childbearing for women at the bottom of the economic ladder, so we should make it more lucrative to stay childless.

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    • Replies: @RonaldB
    By the nature of lower-class people, future orientation and impulse control is lower. The effect of incentives would probably be pretty low, unless you literally cut off all welfare and social services, and even then, the effect would probably show itself through deaths by poor health and malnutrition.

    My suggestion would be an offer of a high payment and a promise of lifetime payments in exchange for voluntary, permanent sterilization. This would have the benefit of removing the dysfunctional people from the reproductive gene pool, and with every comfort available to them. They would be supported all their lives, hopefully in some comfort, but would not contribute children to be similarly cared for.

    My feeling is that such programs should be privately funded and privately administered, with no government involvement and no coercion. If someone wanted to have children and forgo guaranteed support, then they would be free to do so, and probably would be a benefit to the gene pool anyway. Once you get government involved, the program would likely do more harm than good.
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  78. @Daniel Chieh
    Empirical experience supports this, and additionally that government security auditors consider them to be remarkably safe bets: they don't seem to have any great ambitions, obsessions or eccentricities that would lead them to betrayal. Wakanda nationalism is harmless for security concerns.

    I should add, my opinion is that the sinecure jobs given to blacks would not work for whites for the most part: a friend who was recognized for his military service was given a sinecure in a three-letter agency to basically make photocopies of old newspapers into microfilm. It was well-paid but after doing that for a year and a half, he became very angry rather than appreciative, said that he felt like his life was being wasted and left to private industry.

    He would rather take on a more challenging, but “fun” job that was equally paid than something repetitive and I got the sense he actually considered it an insult.

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    • Replies: @whorefinder
    The phrase "overqualified for the position" springs to mind.

    Boredom is just as deadly to a worker as being overworked.

    Many people think they'd love a good-paying job that was extremely easy to do and required very little of their intellectual, physical, or emotional energy, but after a few months they'd be chafing. People naturally want to use their abilities beyond merely a little and eight hours a day not doing much is bad for the psyche. It's unnatural to not use your abilities.

    This is how second wave feminism got a lot of recruits: housewives were not having their abilities utilized to the fullest, and their boredom made the feminist mantra of "it's all men holding you down's fault" sound reasonable.

    Except the reason the 1950s-60s housewives felt bored was because of the technological innovations of WW2 had made the job of a housewife infinitely easier in 1965 versus 1945: In literally one generation the amount of time required to cook and clean and care for the children and tend to the house generally had gone from a full 12-hour day to 4 hours (refrigeration, instant food, supermarkets, new ovens, washing machines, vaccums, electricity, etc.). What's more, many housewives of the 1960s had brand new homes (built post WW2), which required even less work than if you had an older home.

    In short, by 1965 many housewives weren't having their abilities utilized to the fullest like their mothers' abilities had been, and the resulting boredom created a space for a lot of poisonous ideology (feminism, abortion, communism, integration, alcohol and drug use, divorce) to take hold.

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  79. OFF TOPIC

    Trump has set the stage for the GOP to be wiped out in the mid-term elections. Trump has cravenly capitulated to the GOP Cheap Labor Faction and the Democrats on open borders mass immigration. Trump says he wants to give amnesty to Obama’s illegal alien invaders. Trump has signed a bill that pours more foreigners into the United States.

    Perhaps it would be better if the GOP were to be wiped out in November. It would force Trump to get back to base on immigration, foreign policy and sovereignty concerns.

    Trump is betting that the Democrat Senators in the mostly White leaning-GOP states will be defeated and the US House just barely stays GOP. We’ll see if he’s right.

    Trump’s blubbering on about Obama’s illegal aliens and Trump’s decision to pour more foreigners into the United States will come back to haunt him.

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  80. @Anonymous
    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein first came to public attention in the wake of the Damore Google memo incident. Scroll her Twitter feed back to that and you'll find a bunch of foul-mouthed tweets.

    A Slate piece by her at the time, not on astrophysics:

    Stop Equating Science with Truth
    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/evolutionary_psychology_is_the_most_obvious_example_of_how_science_is_flawed.html

    She also became involved in dust-up where she was perceived as calling Taylor Swift a Nazi. She wrote 5,000 words about that on Medium. Her astrophysics research must not be that grueling for her to have this kind of free time:

    https://medium.com/@chanda/why-i-took-a-break-from-twitter-e4aeb3bb4777

    Check out her 86 other Medium posts. She seems to get involved in all manner of controversies, none of which involve her actually doing any astrophysics.

    https://medium.com/@chanda

    For someone who doesn't look black, she seems to attract a lot of anti-black racism, or so she says

    Here she advocates for hiring more black physics professors, even though they haven't done any research or accomplished anything in physics, because they are needed for counseling work with brittle, emotionally fragile black physics students:

    https://medium.com/thsppl/still-working-for-free-the-unpaid-labor-of-blackademics-dfa84c200ff0

    This is more than just passing, she really doesn’t look it.

    Be prepared for an expose on Chandra along the lines of Rachael Dolezal. It could definitely happen in her case.

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  81. @Daniel Chieh
    I shall assist.

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor’s of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Their thesis, “A study of winds in active galactic nuclei”, was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. They then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled “Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology” under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo’s Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American person of female-bodied anatomy in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

     

    Get me out of this reality stream.

    Thanks…

    I do find it a useful reminder of the fact that, historically, people have believed all sorts of nonsense. And sometimes there are peaks of panicky nonsense.

    It’s true that I mourn the seemingly recent time when reality was reasonable. But really, it was part illusion, part product of a sheltered existence.

    Now the “no borders” ideal of technology shatters illusions and tears down protections, so the Internet has us all frantically searching for walls to protect us from the vast amount of nonsense that has always been around but of which we were mercifully unaware.

    I think the next big thing is filters. Personal assistants that protect us from the world’s nonsense. So far big tech has not been up to the task, but soon some kind of personal and private AI shield may be the only way to maintain our sanity.

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  82. Black women face a very high risk of being stuck in poverty (62 percent), surpassing even the 50 percent risk faced by black men. For whites, the odds of remaining stuck in poverty remain relatively low, for both men (28 percent) and women (33 percent), when we use a family income measure.

    among those who grew up poor, black women show a marked difference between the risk of being in the bottom quintile of the individual earnings distribution (for each gender), and the risk of being in the bottom quintile of the family income distribution (for the whole age cohort). Whites do well on both counts; black men do poorly on both counts. Black women do reasonably well on the first and very poorly on the second. This result is probably driven by the fact that black women tend to create families with black men who do poorly on both counts and thus bring down the family income results for black women.

    https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-inheritance-of-black-poverty-its-all-about-the-men/

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  83. @Travis
    Steve, why ignore the huge gap in household income between the Wealthy white daughters compared to the wealthy Black daughters ? In reality the white daughters of the wealthy do just as well as the sons...there Is No difference in household income between the white boys and white girls.

    there is a vast difference in outcomes between the white and black daughters of the wealthy. 40% of the white girls were living in wealthy households as adults and just 10% of the Black girls.

    It is dishonest to conclude that a White woman who stays home to raise her 3 kids while her husband earns $500,000 per year is is no longer among the top 1% and because her individual income is close to zero.

    For the typical female the best possible outcome after getting their college degree is to find a wealthy husband. Thus the Chetty data demonstrates that white women achieve their goals at a much higher level than the Black females. The majority of the white females found a high earning husband and will remain among the top 10% while less than a third of the wealthy black daughters found husbands. The marriage rate was twice as high for the white females. This should not be ignored and is the primary reason the Black females are more likely to work than the white females..

    In reality the white daughters of the wealthy do just as well as the sons

    My reading of the numbers in the spreadsheet (the differences are small enough at about 3% to make it hard to see in the separate plots for men and women) is that white women actually do a bit better than white men in terms of household income. See these variables:
    kfr_[race]_[gender] – Mean child family (household) income rank by race and by gender.

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    • Replies: @Travis
    I agree, it actually looks like the white girls do better than the white boys based on household income. Chetty ignores household income, because sit destroys his argument. The Black girls from wealthy parents are far less likely to be among the top 10% than the white girls because the white girls are twice as likely to be married compared to the Black daughters of the wealthy. We need to compare the single white females verse the single black females to get meaningful comparisons.
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  84. @European-American
    Triggers alert, some sloppy editing on Wikipedia:

    Prescod-Weinstein was born in El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and went to school in the Los Angeles Unified School District. They earned a Bachelor's of Arts in Physics and Astronomy at Harvard College in 2003. Her thesis, "A study of winds in active galactic nuclei", was completed under the supervision of Martin Elvis. She then earned a Masters in Astronomy at the University of California, Santa Cruz working with Anthony Aguirre. In 2010, Prescod-Weinstein completed their Ph.D. dissertation titled "Acceleration as Quantum Gravity Phenomenology" under the supervision of Lee Smolin and Niayesh Afshordi at University of Waterloo's Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. In doing so, they became the 63rd African American woman in history to earn a Ph.D. in Physics.

    ...

    Prescod-Weinstein identifies as queer and agender.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanda_Prescod-Weinstein
     

    Being the sixty-third Negro to do x is now noteworthy? I remember some Negro comedian years and years ago doing a hilarious bit about how stupid the whole “first x to y” business is. He wondered if one day, minding his own business, he bought a bunch of asparagus from the grocer, sirens would wail, balloons and confetti fall from the rafters, and a band will strike up, and everyone will burst in to raucous festivities (“Did you say ‘asparagus?!’ You’re the first black man to purchase fresh asparagus!”).

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  85. @International Jew
    “Some women have penises.”

    How many fingers, Winston?
    https://youtu.be/wTFV9w4B0eg

    I prefer the 1984 1984 to the 1956 1984:

    But to each his own.

    EDIT: Is your clip from ‘56 or ‘54?

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  86. @DFH
    They're going to be repeating this for years and years, aren't they?

    …repeating this for years and years

    Yeah, they’ve been anxious to refute The Bell Curve for ~twenty five years. You’d think such an obvious refutation would be a done deal by now.

    For that matter, Herrnstein’s IQ article in The Atlantic appeared in 1971, going on 50 years ago.

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  87. @DFH
    They're going to be repeating this for years and years, aren't they?

    They’re restarting BLM in Sacramento now. I expect the Parkland Players to be on retainer as professional activists through middle age. These fake causes are their careers, they have no morality, why would they stop just because everyone saw that they were lying?

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  88. @Lot
    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    I don't think you hire Bolton unless this is the plan.

    I hope they are not dumb enough to attempt an occupation of Iran.

    That leaves a heavy bombardment. Can we not waste tons of money on hundreds of very expensive cruise missles like the Syria airfield strike? Take out the air defenses and after that stick to B-52s and our older fighters dropping dumb and older gen smart bombs.

    Other options include taking out the AQ/ISIS and Iran linked factions in the Yemen civil war and/or removing the government of Qatar in favor of another member of the royal family who will serve US/Saudi/Israel interests.

    Closer to home, we could regeme change Cuba or Venezuela.

    My preference is to do none of these, but what is the least bad option? My least favorite option next to ground troops in Iran is getting involved in Yemen with ground troops.

    Best bet IMO is a lightening invasion of Qatar, in and out, merely replacing the head royal. We already have soldiers there, will be simple.

    Venezuela could be fast too. The last few semi free elections went to the opposition but were not honored by the communist regime. The opposition has majority overall support, close to complete support of the elite and middle classes, and has partial control of some regional and local governments. Could be as easy as removing everyone in Maduro's party from office and letting the remaining people work things out.

    Imagine Trumps support level if he quickly and cheaply took out two hostile anti American regimes! This would also be the first real wars we watched with new gen drones and on 4K TV. Suddenly the media would actually like Trump.

    So you think we’re stupid and totally voiceless? I wish the neocons would be dumb enough to try this, the result would not be what you expect, but it might break some deadlock.

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  89. @res

    In reality the white daughters of the wealthy do just as well as the sons
     
    My reading of the numbers in the spreadsheet (the differences are small enough at about 3% to make it hard to see in the separate plots for men and women) is that white women actually do a bit better than white men in terms of household income. See these variables:
    kfr_[race]_[gender] - Mean child family (household) income rank by race and by gender.

    I agree, it actually looks like the white girls do better than the white boys based on household income. Chetty ignores household income, because sit destroys his argument. The Black girls from wealthy parents are far less likely to be among the top 10% than the white girls because the white girls are twice as likely to be married compared to the Black daughters of the wealthy. We need to compare the single white females verse the single black females to get meaningful comparisons.

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  90. @BenKenobi
    Perhaps the source of their constant exhaustion is being a lumbering land-whale and not their politics?

    I hate to admit this because I hate movement, but there is definitely a huge connection between strenuous exercise and stability of mood.

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  91. @Daniel Chieh
    I should add, my opinion is that the sinecure jobs given to blacks would not work for whites for the most part: a friend who was recognized for his military service was given a sinecure in a three-letter agency to basically make photocopies of old newspapers into microfilm. It was well-paid but after doing that for a year and a half, he became very angry rather than appreciative, said that he felt like his life was being wasted and left to private industry.

    He would rather take on a more challenging, but "fun" job that was equally paid than something repetitive and I got the sense he actually considered it an insult.

    The phrase “overqualified for the position” springs to mind.

    Boredom is just as deadly to a worker as being overworked.

    Many people think they’d love a good-paying job that was extremely easy to do and required very little of their intellectual, physical, or emotional energy, but after a few months they’d be chafing. People naturally want to use their abilities beyond merely a little and eight hours a day not doing much is bad for the psyche. It’s unnatural to not use your abilities.

    This is how second wave feminism got a lot of recruits: housewives were not having their abilities utilized to the fullest, and their boredom made the feminist mantra of “it’s all men holding you down’s fault” sound reasonable.

    Except the reason the 1950s-60s housewives felt bored was because of the technological innovations of WW2 had made the job of a housewife infinitely easier in 1965 versus 1945: In literally one generation the amount of time required to cook and clean and care for the children and tend to the house generally had gone from a full 12-hour day to 4 hours (refrigeration, instant food, supermarkets, new ovens, washing machines, vaccums, electricity, etc.). What’s more, many housewives of the 1960s had brand new homes (built post WW2), which required even less work than if you had an older home.

    In short, by 1965 many housewives weren’t having their abilities utilized to the fullest like their mothers’ abilities had been, and the resulting boredom created a space for a lot of poisonous ideology (feminism, abortion, communism, integration, alcohol and drug use, divorce) to take hold.

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  92. Gintis and Bowles’ 2002 Journal of Economic Perspectives piece “The Inheritance of Inequality” noted that IQ doesn’t explain much of intergenerational income correlation, which they estimate at 0.4.

    The causal chain goes like this:

    1. earnings have a 0.266 correlation with IQ.
    2. Heritability of IQ between parent and child is about 0.5 for h^2

    So the net result is only 5% of the total correlation can be explained by IQ’s impact on wages. I haven’t seen any papers rebutting this. So, in general, the heritability of income is rather unexplained, and it should not be surprising we find quirky things in the data

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  93. OFF TOPIC

    Sailer should do a blog on the new CIA director lady, Gina Haspel. Her background was kept a secret, but now she’s political, so we find out.

    Wall Street Journal says this:

    The CIA said she is a native of Ashland, Ky., the oldest of five children, and the daughter of an airman who raised her all around the world as he served at various bases. She graduated from high school in the U.K., the agency said, without naming which city.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-fills-in-some-blanks-on-gina-haspels-secret-life-1521745324

    Invite the world — Invade the world — In hock to the world — could be strong with Haspel. She grew up as an Air Force brat on bases while her father was doing garrison duty for the overseas American Empire. Haspel’s sense of the United States might be too globalized to understand the pro-sovereignty sentiment growing in the United States. Everywhere and anywhere is America to the Haspel types.

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  94. Somebody’s happy with the spending bill.

    We thank leaders in Congress for working to secure $705.8 million for U.S.-Israel missile defense cooperation: @SenThadCochran @SenatorDurbin @RepKayGranger & @RepVisclosky.These funds will help save lives. pic.twitter.com/xqq9BdwxBr— AIPAC (@AIPAC) March 23, 2018

    Thanks to leaders in Congress for working to secure $3.1 billion in annual security assistance for Israel: @LindseyGrahamSC @SenatorLeahy @RepHalRogers @USRepRodney & @NitaLowey. These funds will help keep Israel safe. pic.twitter.com/ykr4d7a1ck— AIPAC (@AIPAC) March 23, 2018

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  95. Without ‘diversity’, a lot of people would be out of work. Or so it seems.

    The Enthnostate is looking better all the time.

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  96. OT – Noticed Trump just signed the Trillion Dollar Plus Ominous Bill. Dammit to Hell!

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    • Replies: @Anonym
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/23/donald-trump-signs-bloated-1-3-trillion-omnibus-bill-military-funding/

    FFS.

    Rand Paul said this classic, via t_d. Even they are upset.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RandPaul/status/976941920936185856

    Another thread on td. 3000+ posts. Note the usual true believer/hasbara content (22d chess Trump knows what he is doing) is getting downvoted to negatives.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/86m7fn/president_trump_participates_in_a_bill_signing/
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  97. On the one hand, yes, the results (at least as reported) don’t contradict the hypothesis of genetic differences in the average distribution of abilities. But on the other, Black females coming from families in the top income percentile having the same average adult income as White females coming from the top income percentile does conflict with the “reversion to the mean” argument that comes up from time to time on this blog as an explanation for why Blacks typically have poorer outcomes than Whites coming from households with comparable family income, no? Does the pattern for females continue at lower childhood family income levels, or is there a disjunction somewhere?

    If the “reversion” to a lower mean is really just a phenomenon limited to Black males, that kind of suggests that the intergenerational change isn’t about genes, but has to do, rather, with behavior (e.g. crime and the penumbra of not-criminal-but-still-dumb behaviours that surround crime). And racism could be part of that too — racism may be overblown as an explanation for everything bad ever, but Black males are disadvantaged by their race. If a posh Californian finds an unkempt Latino skulking about in his garden, he’ll offer him a job as gardener. If he finds an unkempt Black man in his garden, he’ll call the police. There’s explanations for that, sure, but when it comes down to it, a similarly situated Black man is going to get treated with more suspicion and fear than a Latino (or a White or an Asian). And it’s hard for me to believe that has no impact at all.

    On the gripping hand, the results for Black females vs. White females do undermine my belief in a generalized racism against Blacks — maybe it really is just Black males.

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    • Replies: @Anthony Wayne
    You can scroll up to see all of this already addressed but I’ll do a TL;DR of the points:
    -only true for this set (born in top decile)
    >>vastly more white women from top decile (raw and relative)
    -only true comparing individual incomes, not household
    >>much larger portion of the white set is married
    >>> household income higher

    I’ll add my own that this set of self-identified blacks will tend to be one of three things: professional entertainer/athlete, African or Caribbean immigrant, or mulatto.

    I’m not sure they all necessarily refute the idea that rich black women stay rich as well as rich white women, but the totality of Chetty’s data (as presented in this study) suggest, as usual, that Steve’s oft-proffered explanations (HBD) are the easiest and most likely. It’s funny how consistently backward these “explainors” of such studies get causality, and how frequently they resort to the same sleights-of-hand.
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  98. @Charles Pewitt

    This seems to be a Thing among female SJWs lately: announcing how exhausted you are by people not automatically submitting to your arguments.

     

    If nobody else is going to do it, I will.

    Once more unto the Hillary Clinton doing the James Cleveland song "I don't feel no ways tired" in a phony Black accent. Black gospel singer James Cleveland was born in 1931 and he died in 1991. That means Cleveland croaked before he could be eligible for Social Security and Medicare. I hereby accuse White woman Hillary Clinton of ripping off the guy's song to get Black votes and to participating in a government plot to deny Black guys their government retirement loot by keeping the eligibility age so high.

    Hillary Clinton ain't no ways tired of screwing Black guys out of their Social Security and Medicare. This stuff about Hillary Clinton is exhausting.

    Baby boomer Hillary Clinton is a White woman who nickels and dimes Black men out of their retirement benefits while Hillary herself will most likely live at least as long as Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

    News reports suggest that Ruth Bader Ginsburg is now lifting weights. There have been no reports of roid rage as yet in relation to Ginsburg.

    Hillary Clinton isn't tired of screwing over Black men on retirement benefits(2007):

    https://youtu.be/Y-H9BOIYhgc

    Charles, the article I saw about Ginsburg’s workout had to be a cover for some physical or mental problem that is manifesting itself. You know, Ruth be so fit and alert, unlike Nancy Pelosi who is visibly slipping.

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  99. @Hubbub
    OT - Noticed Trump just signed the Trillion Dollar Plus Ominous Bill. Dammit to Hell!

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/23/donald-trump-signs-bloated-1-3-trillion-omnibus-bill-military-funding/

    FFS.

    Rand Paul said this classic, via t_d. Even they are upset.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RandPaul/status/976941920936185856

    Another thread on td. 3000+ posts. Note the usual true believer/hasbara content (22d chess Trump knows what he is doing) is getting downvoted to negatives.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/86m7fn/president_trump_participates_in_a_bill_signing/

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  100. Off-Topic:

    The Great and the Good are doubling or tripling down on the Goodthinking Conventional Wisdom [occasional David Reich op-eds notwithstanding]:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2018/03/the-atlantic-announces-ideas-columnists-ibram-x-kendi-annie-lowrey-alex-wagner-and-kevin-d-williamson/556301/

    The first new ideas columnist is Ibram X. Kendi, a professor of history and international relations and the founding director of the Antiracist Research and Policy Center at American University. From a stint as a reporter at The Virginian Pilot, Kendi headed back to graduate school, and emerged as one of America’s most innovative scholars of race. His second book—Stamped from the Beginning: The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America—made him the youngest-ever winner of the National Book Award for Nonfiction.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    Kevin Williamson is by far the most insufferable person on that list. If you only listened to his podcast you would think that the most pressing issues for the country are right to work laws, and magazine capacity sizes.
    , @Steve Sailer
    Annie Lowrey is definitely part of the underprivileged. Her husband founded Vox.
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  101. It looks like Chetty’s team is out to fool the intelligentsia. No wonder they are so brainy,

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    • Replies: @res
    It seems to be pretty easy to fool the intelligentsia these days. Just have someone "authoritative" tell them what they want to hear.
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  102. I thought we were supposed to want low heritability of income and high mobility. So confusing!

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  103. @little spoon
    While the NYT description of this study focused on the 1%, Chetty's analysis doesn't actually focus on the 1%. It's a comprehensive analysis of regression to a mean for just about all children born to American legal residents in a certain timeframe (roughly the 90s). So we don't need to fixate on who is in the black or white 1% of income- the patterns hold through across the income spectrum. We can talk about blacks vs white adult children from the 60th percentile in parental income and have the same discussion.

    If Chetty's data is accurate, I don't think he's wrong for concluding that the results really don't fit a hereditarian argument very well. It's not that they completely undermine the arguments for inherent race differences in IQ and associated life outcomes being based in IQ; it's that the results for women don't conform to the pattern one would expect to see making those assumptions. If there are two hypotheses as follows:

    1. SES in childhood environment largely determines SES for adults. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of deprivation in childhood.

    2. Genetic factors largely determine major drivers of SES for adults, with those major drivers being general intelligence, conscientiousness, impulse control etc. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of genetic factors (such as lower average IQ) which cause both lower SES in childhood and adulthood.

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind. It's a perfect linear relationship hinging on dollars collected in income, just the kind of pattern economists want to see. It makes me suspicious of the data because it *is* an economist who is seeing this.

    The regression pattern shown does not fit hypothesis 2 very directly for women. And look, I don't love to be saying that. Every other data set with robust sample I've ever seen points to hypothesis 2. But this data really is not what hypothesis 2 would predict. What we should see if hypothesis 2 were the most salient explanation is the following:

    1. More and more dispersion between black and white women across SES metrics the higher the parental income or being lower across the regression as black men are. If two populations regress to different means, that implies the regression should be most severe for those furthest away from their respective population mean. In essence, a child of white parents with IQ of 105, doesn't have much mean regression potential in points. But the child of white parents with average IQ 160 has much more likelihood to regress further in terms of IQ points. But in Chetty's data, there is no pattern of greater dispersion at higher percentiles between races.

    2. The argument that black women earn more because they are trying to be breadwinners while white women are choosing lower pressure careers doesn't describe the regression across parental income percentiles if we are to assume a hereditarian hypothesis. If white women deliberately avoid maximizing their earnings because they want to spend more time with kids/rely on husband, then what we should see is a flattening effect somewhere along their regression. In essence, a daughter of a household in the 90th percentile of income might well choose to become a teacher instead of maximizing her earnings based on her potential aptitude. But daughters of households in the 75th percentile and 50th would be pursuing similarly paying jobs, so we should be seeing the average white daughter of the 90th percentile household making not much more than one from a lower percentile. But that's not what we see- the regression never flattens out for white women and the slope of the regression isn't much different for any of the cohorts studied, so on average white daughters continuously convert their advantage vs. those from lower SES percentiles into higher individual incomes as adults. But they do not demonstrate an advantage over black women from their same parental income rank.

    Given that there exists a tremendous amount of other evidence that hypothesis 2 is correct, then I think it must be the case that hypothesis 2 is still working for this data and that genetics and IQ just impacts women's lives in complicated ways. Ultimately, there are many many variables of SES that are not analyzed in this study and it's possible that the disparity between black and white women will manifest more in those variables or even these variables as the cohort gets older. I expect that household wealth and household income will be different for black and white women from the same parental income percentile. I expect that having children within wedlock is markedly different as well.

    So, what we are seeing is, say, black women’s individual income regressing one standard deviation rather than 1.5 standard deviations if there were 50% regression toward the mean?

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    • Replies: @little spoon
    Actually, when you state the question by asking about standard deviations, I am seeing that Chetty's graphs may not be the most intuitive way of showing this. He doesn't actually show drops in standard deviations- just percentiles. It would be best to convert his charts axes into dollars rather than percentage rank. Then we could more intuitively visualize the drop in stdv.

    To use IQ as an analogy, the standard deviation is in points, not percentile. So, a 130 IQ child of IQ 160 parents has dropped 2 points in percentile rank but also 2 whole standard deviations. Whereas a 100IQ child of 105 IQ parents dropped ~.3 standard deviations and 13 points in percentile rank. So, Chetty's charts are obscuring whatever the drops in standard deviation are, which is hard for me to extrapolate because unlike IQ, income takes an exponential distribution over increasing dollars rather than a bell curve distribution over increasing points.

    I am not sure how this exponential distribution of income is complicating an analysis of expected generational regression to the mean in income vs. iq. We must find a more sophisticated math person to explain.
    , @Marc Cohen
    Slightly off topic, but for all the interesting things Jordan Peterson has had to say lately he is a little off on this"

    "There is no evidence whatsoever that Ashkenazi Jews are over-represented in any occupations/interests for reasons other than intelligence and the associated effects of intelligence on personality and political belief. Thus, no conspiratorial claims based on ethnic identity need to be given credence."

    As an Ashkenazi Jew working in Hollywood I can say this is quite false.

    https://jordanbpeterson.com/psychology/on-the-so-called-jewish-question/
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  104. @Anonymous
    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein first came to public attention in the wake of the Damore Google memo incident. Scroll her Twitter feed back to that and you'll find a bunch of foul-mouthed tweets.

    A Slate piece by her at the time, not on astrophysics:

    Stop Equating Science with Truth
    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/evolutionary_psychology_is_the_most_obvious_example_of_how_science_is_flawed.html

    She also became involved in dust-up where she was perceived as calling Taylor Swift a Nazi. She wrote 5,000 words about that on Medium. Her astrophysics research must not be that grueling for her to have this kind of free time:

    https://medium.com/@chanda/why-i-took-a-break-from-twitter-e4aeb3bb4777

    Check out her 86 other Medium posts. She seems to get involved in all manner of controversies, none of which involve her actually doing any astrophysics.

    https://medium.com/@chanda

    For someone who doesn't look black, she seems to attract a lot of anti-black racism, or so she says

    Here she advocates for hiring more black physics professors, even though they haven't done any research or accomplished anything in physics, because they are needed for counseling work with brittle, emotionally fragile black physics students:

    https://medium.com/thsppl/still-working-for-free-the-unpaid-labor-of-blackademics-dfa84c200ff0

    Say what you will, this SJW is one busy beaver, or beavers.

    Of course they are exhausted. All of their black bodies have been worked to the bone.

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    • Replies: @sayless
    "All of their black bodies have been worked to the bone"

    Well is that before or after they've been Plundered?
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  105. Are the results for male blacks different from female blacks? The argument seems to be that human genetics requires IQ for males and females is equal. It is assumed Chetty’s results are correlated with IQ. But Chetty’s results are different for black males and black females. So Chetty’s data do not support a genetic basis for IQ.

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  106. @Benjaminl
    Off-Topic:

    The Great and the Good are doubling or tripling down on the Goodthinking Conventional Wisdom [occasional David Reich op-eds notwithstanding]:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2018/03/the-atlantic-announces-ideas-columnists-ibram-x-kendi-annie-lowrey-alex-wagner-and-kevin-d-williamson/556301/

    The first new ideas columnist is Ibram X. Kendi, a professor of history and international relations and the founding director of the Antiracist Research and Policy Center at American University. From a stint as a reporter at The Virginian Pilot, Kendi headed back to graduate school, and emerged as one of America’s most innovative scholars of race. His second book—Stamped from the Beginning: The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America—made him the youngest-ever winner of the National Book Award for Nonfiction.
     

    Kevin Williamson is by far the most insufferable person on that list. If you only listened to his podcast you would think that the most pressing issues for the country are right to work laws, and magazine capacity sizes.

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    • Replies: @Barnard
    Williamson was making $225k a year at National Review, I wonder what the Atlantic had to pay to get him to leave and why they would even bother. You can add to list that Williamson thinks he has a perfect understanding of rural America based on his own dysfunctional upbringing in West Texas and few days he spent in Kentucky coal country. Williamson compares himself to St. Paul preaching to the gentiles as his reason for making the move.
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  107. @Arclight
    Worth pointing out that an average black woman and average black man working full time would combine to have a fairly comfortable household income, even though it would be lower than an average white couple. Leaving IQ aside, the fact that marriage has become increasingly uncommon in black America explains a lot of the cultural and economic struggles it experiences, but it's certainly not fashionable on the left or the right to promote the idea that a return to mores of mid-20th century America would probably have a significant and beneficial effect on the worst-performing segment of our society.

    Those mid-century social mores depended a lot on a stable job market. In an unstable, liberalised job market it makes sense for many low-skilled proles to adopt loose family structures. For example, if a man on a low income moves out of home, he can move around looking for work, his partner can go on welfare, and he can give his family cash under the table. Thus the family is financially better off than if he stayed at home.

    The people who are suffering the most from changing social mores are arguably lower-middle class whites. Their incomes are too high to make welfare an attractive option, but they still pay the hefty financial cost of high divorce rates. If I remember rightly, a large New Zealand study about ten years back found incomes where increasing for the top 10 percent, holding steady for the bottom twenty percent, and declining for those in the middle.

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  108. OT Omnibus spending bill actually politically suicidal gun control

    The bill Trump just signed without a fight included the “fix NCIS” provision, which means I can get on the phone, make up a story, and end your right to own firearms. Congressmen are saying now that they did not properly read the bill but were assured that this was not in there. Gun Owners of America, Fox, and NewsWeek and a few others confirm, Fix NCIS is now law thanks to Trump. I guess there will be a blue wave this fall.

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  109. @Lugash
    OT: Anyone notice that Russian psyop/Cambridge Analytica was basically Cass Sunstein's 'cognitive infilatration' applied at scale?

    “Sunstein is said to be the worst of infectants.” — Judge Reinhold

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  110. You know what Sailer ? Your posts are becoming exhausting and even worse irrelevant .

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  111. @Steve Sailer
    So, what we are seeing is, say, black women's individual income regressing one standard deviation rather than 1.5 standard deviations if there were 50% regression toward the mean?

    Actually, when you state the question by asking about standard deviations, I am seeing that Chetty’s graphs may not be the most intuitive way of showing this. He doesn’t actually show drops in standard deviations- just percentiles. It would be best to convert his charts axes into dollars rather than percentage rank. Then we could more intuitively visualize the drop in stdv.

    To use IQ as an analogy, the standard deviation is in points, not percentile. So, a 130 IQ child of IQ 160 parents has dropped 2 points in percentile rank but also 2 whole standard deviations. Whereas a 100IQ child of 105 IQ parents dropped ~.3 standard deviations and 13 points in percentile rank. So, Chetty’s charts are obscuring whatever the drops in standard deviation are, which is hard for me to extrapolate because unlike IQ, income takes an exponential distribution over increasing dollars rather than a bell curve distribution over increasing points.

    I am not sure how this exponential distribution of income is complicating an analysis of expected generational regression to the mean in income vs. iq. We must find a more sophisticated math person to explain.

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  112. @little spoon
    While the NYT description of this study focused on the 1%, Chetty's analysis doesn't actually focus on the 1%. It's a comprehensive analysis of regression to a mean for just about all children born to American legal residents in a certain timeframe (roughly the 90s). So we don't need to fixate on who is in the black or white 1% of income- the patterns hold through across the income spectrum. We can talk about blacks vs white adult children from the 60th percentile in parental income and have the same discussion.

    If Chetty's data is accurate, I don't think he's wrong for concluding that the results really don't fit a hereditarian argument very well. It's not that they completely undermine the arguments for inherent race differences in IQ and associated life outcomes being based in IQ; it's that the results for women don't conform to the pattern one would expect to see making those assumptions. If there are two hypotheses as follows:

    1. SES in childhood environment largely determines SES for adults. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of deprivation in childhood.

    2. Genetic factors largely determine major drivers of SES for adults, with those major drivers being general intelligence, conscientiousness, impulse control etc. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of genetic factors (such as lower average IQ) which cause both lower SES in childhood and adulthood.

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind. It's a perfect linear relationship hinging on dollars collected in income, just the kind of pattern economists want to see. It makes me suspicious of the data because it *is* an economist who is seeing this.

    The regression pattern shown does not fit hypothesis 2 very directly for women. And look, I don't love to be saying that. Every other data set with robust sample I've ever seen points to hypothesis 2. But this data really is not what hypothesis 2 would predict. What we should see if hypothesis 2 were the most salient explanation is the following:

    1. More and more dispersion between black and white women across SES metrics the higher the parental income or being lower across the regression as black men are. If two populations regress to different means, that implies the regression should be most severe for those furthest away from their respective population mean. In essence, a child of white parents with IQ of 105, doesn't have much mean regression potential in points. But the child of white parents with average IQ 160 has much more likelihood to regress further in terms of IQ points. But in Chetty's data, there is no pattern of greater dispersion at higher percentiles between races.

    2. The argument that black women earn more because they are trying to be breadwinners while white women are choosing lower pressure careers doesn't describe the regression across parental income percentiles if we are to assume a hereditarian hypothesis. If white women deliberately avoid maximizing their earnings because they want to spend more time with kids/rely on husband, then what we should see is a flattening effect somewhere along their regression. In essence, a daughter of a household in the 90th percentile of income might well choose to become a teacher instead of maximizing her earnings based on her potential aptitude. But daughters of households in the 75th percentile and 50th would be pursuing similarly paying jobs, so we should be seeing the average white daughter of the 90th percentile household making not much more than one from a lower percentile. But that's not what we see- the regression never flattens out for white women and the slope of the regression isn't much different for any of the cohorts studied, so on average white daughters continuously convert their advantage vs. those from lower SES percentiles into higher individual incomes as adults. But they do not demonstrate an advantage over black women from their same parental income rank.

    Given that there exists a tremendous amount of other evidence that hypothesis 2 is correct, then I think it must be the case that hypothesis 2 is still working for this data and that genetics and IQ just impacts women's lives in complicated ways. Ultimately, there are many many variables of SES that are not analyzed in this study and it's possible that the disparity between black and white women will manifest more in those variables or even these variables as the cohort gets older. I expect that household wealth and household income will be different for black and white women from the same parental income percentile. I expect that having children within wedlock is markedly different as well.

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind.

    Is this not simply due to hiring quotas? Aren’t employers going to prefer to fill their quotas with black women with a bit more polish acquired in a more-affluent upbringing?

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  113. @Luke Lea
    It looks like Chetty's team is out to fool the intelligentsia. No wonder they are so brainy,

    It seems to be pretty easy to fool the intelligentsia these days. Just have someone “authoritative” tell them what they want to hear.

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  114. @Anon
    Kevin Williamson is by far the most insufferable person on that list. If you only listened to his podcast you would think that the most pressing issues for the country are right to work laws, and magazine capacity sizes.

    Williamson was making $225k a year at National Review, I wonder what the Atlantic had to pay to get him to leave and why they would even bother. You can add to list that Williamson thinks he has a perfect understanding of rural America based on his own dysfunctional upbringing in West Texas and few days he spent in Kentucky coal country. Williamson compares himself to St. Paul preaching to the gentiles as his reason for making the move.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Well you see, Barnard, some magazines are dying, collapsing in the face of more dynamic mass media products, and it's best that they die.
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  115. @Steve Sailer
    So, what we are seeing is, say, black women's individual income regressing one standard deviation rather than 1.5 standard deviations if there were 50% regression toward the mean?

    Slightly off topic, but for all the interesting things Jordan Peterson has had to say lately he is a little off on this”

    “There is no evidence whatsoever that Ashkenazi Jews are over-represented in any occupations/interests for reasons other than intelligence and the associated effects of intelligence on personality and political belief. Thus, no conspiratorial claims based on ethnic identity need to be given credence.”

    As an Ashkenazi Jew working in Hollywood I can say this is quite false.

    https://jordanbpeterson.com/psychology/on-the-so-called-jewish-question/

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  116. @IHTG
    Oh hey:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/977166887493799936

    Oh hey: Zaphod signed it without a fight, now ICE is getting their budget slashed and their deportations limited, wall building funds are forbidden, and I can lie into a phone and end your right to bear arms, because it secretly included “Fix NCIS.”
    So I guess despite betraying their own base with electoral cheating, losing a staggering amount of money, and being massively unpopular, Democrats have a shot to retake the Congress, thanks to Republican leadership.

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  117. @Barnard
    Williamson was making $225k a year at National Review, I wonder what the Atlantic had to pay to get him to leave and why they would even bother. You can add to list that Williamson thinks he has a perfect understanding of rural America based on his own dysfunctional upbringing in West Texas and few days he spent in Kentucky coal country. Williamson compares himself to St. Paul preaching to the gentiles as his reason for making the move.

    Well you see, Barnard, some magazines are dying, collapsing in the face of more dynamic mass media products, and it’s best that they die.

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    • Replies: @Barnard
    I wish National Review was dying. Just think of what could be done if all the donations given to them to fund the salaries of losers like Jonah Goldberg was actually put to a useful purpose.
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  118. @DPG
    The conundrum here is that black men are affected by income regression to the mean stronger than women. It does suggest something other than IQ is in play.

    I’m brainstorming possible causal factors.

    1. Liberals are right and black men face a lot of racism
    2. Rich black sons make much poorer choices than rich black daughters
    3. Rich black daughters make particularly good choices for their own income
    4. Rich white daughters make particularly bad choices for their own income (i.e. if rich white girls made better choices, they would perform closer to their expected level and the mobility gap would reappear between white girls and black girls)

    Is Chetty using household or individual income? What are the differences in marriage rates between white and black women from high income families? And between black men and black women from high income families (i.e. do rich black daughters tend to settle down with a high earner while rich black sons play the field)?

    How do white women compare with white men? If it’s simply a case of white women taking less burdensome jobs (HR, PR, fashion) and marrying well, then that would show up in a disparity in mobility rates between white women and men, but it would disappear if he were using household income.

    As a thought experiment, how much more likely is it for Obama’s daughters to pursue a high income career than Dubya’s daughters? How much more likely are Obama’s daughters to marry a rich white guy than a hypothetical Obama son to marry a high earning woman? The interplay of marriage rates, career choices and household/individual income needs to be sussed out here. I’m too lazy/busy to dig into the data so I’m leaving this for one of the smart iSteve commenters to explore.

    Most likely the larger amount of testosterone and a higher degree of impulsiveness explains the male/male difference. And IQ.

    The women difference is the propensity for black women to go into more lucrative careers than white women because:

    1. They have to due to higher levels of single parentage

    2. They are less likely to be married than their white peers

    3. They have more opportunities and pressure as successful blacks to go into lucrative career fields.

    4. Due to the propensity of blacks not to save, the inability to rely upon daddy for money

    5. “Data point interesting to Chetty” they pursue careers because their likely husbands, black males, are more likely to earn less for iSteve reasons, NYT reasons, or both

    6. The overall propensity for women to achieve greater levels of education. Black women have more reasons to monetize that education. Our society is feminized and that favors women. White women pursue nonsense because they can, blacks put that education to use.

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  119. @Gimeiyo
    On the one hand, yes, the results (at least as reported) don't contradict the hypothesis of genetic differences in the average distribution of abilities. But on the other, Black females coming from families in the top income percentile having the same average adult income as White females coming from the top income percentile does conflict with the "reversion to the mean" argument that comes up from time to time on this blog as an explanation for why Blacks typically have poorer outcomes than Whites coming from households with comparable family income, no? Does the pattern for females continue at lower childhood family income levels, or is there a disjunction somewhere?

    If the "reversion" to a lower mean is really just a phenomenon limited to Black males, that kind of suggests that the intergenerational change isn't about genes, but has to do, rather, with behavior (e.g. crime and the penumbra of not-criminal-but-still-dumb behaviours that surround crime). And racism could be part of that too -- racism may be overblown as an explanation for everything bad ever, but Black males are disadvantaged by their race. If a posh Californian finds an unkempt Latino skulking about in his garden, he'll offer him a job as gardener. If he finds an unkempt Black man in his garden, he'll call the police. There's explanations for that, sure, but when it comes down to it, a similarly situated Black man is going to get treated with more suspicion and fear than a Latino (or a White or an Asian). And it's hard for me to believe that has no impact at all.

    On the gripping hand, the results for Black females vs. White females do undermine my belief in a generalized racism against Blacks -- maybe it really is just Black males.

    You can scroll up to see all of this already addressed but I’ll do a TL;DR of the points:
    -only true for this set (born in top decile)
    >>vastly more white women from top decile (raw and relative)
    -only true comparing individual incomes, not household
    >>much larger portion of the white set is married
    >>> household income higher

    I’ll add my own that this set of self-identified blacks will tend to be one of three things: professional entertainer/athlete, African or Caribbean immigrant, or mulatto.

    I’m not sure they all necessarily refute the idea that rich black women stay rich as well as rich white women, but the totality of Chetty’s data (as presented in this study) suggest, as usual, that Steve’s oft-proffered explanations (HBD) are the easiest and most likely. It’s funny how consistently backward these “explainors” of such studies get causality, and how frequently they resort to the same sleights-of-hand.

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  120. @little spoon
    While the NYT description of this study focused on the 1%, Chetty's analysis doesn't actually focus on the 1%. It's a comprehensive analysis of regression to a mean for just about all children born to American legal residents in a certain timeframe (roughly the 90s). So we don't need to fixate on who is in the black or white 1% of income- the patterns hold through across the income spectrum. We can talk about blacks vs white adult children from the 60th percentile in parental income and have the same discussion.

    If Chetty's data is accurate, I don't think he's wrong for concluding that the results really don't fit a hereditarian argument very well. It's not that they completely undermine the arguments for inherent race differences in IQ and associated life outcomes being based in IQ; it's that the results for women don't conform to the pattern one would expect to see making those assumptions. If there are two hypotheses as follows:

    1. SES in childhood environment largely determines SES for adults. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of deprivation in childhood.

    2. Genetic factors largely determine major drivers of SES for adults, with those major drivers being general intelligence, conscientiousness, impulse control etc. Blacks have lower SES in adulthood because of genetic factors (such as lower average IQ) which cause both lower SES in childhood and adulthood.

    The data for black vs white women very well conforms to what hypothesis 1 would predict, but not hypothesis 2. What you see for black vs white women for all major SES outcomes studied (education, incarceration and individual income), is that household income in childhood predicts outcomes in adulthood and the relationship is basically race-blind. It's a perfect linear relationship hinging on dollars collected in income, just the kind of pattern economists want to see. It makes me suspicious of the data because it *is* an economist who is seeing this.

    The regression pattern shown does not fit hypothesis 2 very directly for women. And look, I don't love to be saying that. Every other data set with robust sample I've ever seen points to hypothesis 2. But this data really is not what hypothesis 2 would predict. What we should see if hypothesis 2 were the most salient explanation is the following:

    1. More and more dispersion between black and white women across SES metrics the higher the parental income or being lower across the regression as black men are. If two populations regress to different means, that implies the regression should be most severe for those furthest away from their respective population mean. In essence, a child of white parents with IQ of 105, doesn't have much mean regression potential in points. But the child of white parents with average IQ 160 has much more likelihood to regress further in terms of IQ points. But in Chetty's data, there is no pattern of greater dispersion at higher percentiles between races.

    2. The argument that black women earn more because they are trying to be breadwinners while white women are choosing lower pressure careers doesn't describe the regression across parental income percentiles if we are to assume a hereditarian hypothesis. If white women deliberately avoid maximizing their earnings because they want to spend more time with kids/rely on husband, then what we should see is a flattening effect somewhere along their regression. In essence, a daughter of a household in the 90th percentile of income might well choose to become a teacher instead of maximizing her earnings based on her potential aptitude. But daughters of households in the 75th percentile and 50th would be pursuing similarly paying jobs, so we should be seeing the average white daughter of the 90th percentile household making not much more than one from a lower percentile. But that's not what we see- the regression never flattens out for white women and the slope of the regression isn't much different for any of the cohorts studied, so on average white daughters continuously convert their advantage vs. those from lower SES percentiles into higher individual incomes as adults. But they do not demonstrate an advantage over black women from their same parental income rank.

    Given that there exists a tremendous amount of other evidence that hypothesis 2 is correct, then I think it must be the case that hypothesis 2 is still working for this data and that genetics and IQ just impacts women's lives in complicated ways. Ultimately, there are many many variables of SES that are not analyzed in this study and it's possible that the disparity between black and white women will manifest more in those variables or even these variables as the cohort gets older. I expect that household wealth and household income will be different for black and white women from the same parental income percentile. I expect that having children within wedlock is markedly different as well.

    The white women of the wealthy have a significant advantage over the black women from wealthy parents. Their household income is actually better than among the white sons of the wealthy.. The white women from affluent backgrounds end up in wealthy households because they have marriage rates twice as high as the black girls from wealthy parents. This is significant and explains why the white women are less likely to work , they are much more likely to be married.

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  121. @Benjaminl
    Off-Topic:

    The Great and the Good are doubling or tripling down on the Goodthinking Conventional Wisdom [occasional David Reich op-eds notwithstanding]:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2018/03/the-atlantic-announces-ideas-columnists-ibram-x-kendi-annie-lowrey-alex-wagner-and-kevin-d-williamson/556301/

    The first new ideas columnist is Ibram X. Kendi, a professor of history and international relations and the founding director of the Antiracist Research and Policy Center at American University. From a stint as a reporter at The Virginian Pilot, Kendi headed back to graduate school, and emerged as one of America’s most innovative scholars of race. His second book—Stamped from the Beginning: The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America—made him the youngest-ever winner of the National Book Award for Nonfiction.
     

    Annie Lowrey is definitely part of the underprivileged. Her husband founded Vox.

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  122. Steve,
    Sorry for being dense. What is your thesis? Is it that the regression to predict a person’s income is essentially parental income as a proxy for IQ plus (well, minus) some criminality measure (which is higher for black men, ceteris paribus, than anyone else)?

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  123. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That's a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she's got black Pokemon points!

    http://mlkscholars.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/prescod-weinstein.jpg

    With three bases covered, she could now marry a Han Chinese lesbian and make it all the way to the home plate of coming global rulership. How about Chandra Prescod-Weinstein-Liu?


    When she's not looking for racism, she's looking for dark matter. Perfect: http://www.cprescodweinstein.com

    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That’s a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she’s got black Pokemon points!

    Her full name, from her Ph.D. thesis:

    Chanda Rosalyn Sojourner Prescod-Weinstein

    https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/5498/Prescod-Weinstein_Chanda.pdf;sequence=3

    From the Acknowledgements:

    The Igbo saying Ora na-azu nwa means that the community raises the child. In my case, it has been many communities. An extraordinary number of extraordinarypeople helped get me to where I am now.

    This is only the first of many Igbo quotes. Aren’t the Igbo the Weinsteins of East Africa?

    My sister Maya Trinidad Maldonado-Weinstein …

    My step-mother Maria is fiercely intelligent …

    Mijn stiefvader Maarten …

    My Grandma Elsa, Grandpa Stanley, Uncle Peter, Auntie Rosaline, and mother survived a difficult passage, leaving Barbados to come and make way for me and my cousins …

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Aren’t the Igbo the Weinsteins of East Africa?
     
    Nope, West Africa (mostly Nigeria, e.g. former "Biafra.")

    My Grandma Elsa, Grandpa Stanley, Uncle Peter, Auntie Rosaline, and mother survived a difficult passage, leaving Barbados to come and make way for me and my cousins …

     

    Didn't know slave ships were still running in the 1950s. The dreaded Barbados passage, no less! Lucky that Grandpa Stanley and Auntie Rosaline "survived" the "passage" in the comfort of their cabin without being fed to the sharks.
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  124. @candid_observer
    Say what you will, this SJW is one busy beaver, or beavers.

    Of course they are exhausted. All of their black bodies have been worked to the bone.

    “All of their black bodies have been worked to the bone”

    Well is that before or after they’ve been Plundered?

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  125. @countenance
    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It's probably the first time in history that a black woman isn't big-upping black women. Any other time it's "sistah powah," "white women wear weave too," "white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us."

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

    Actually, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein appears to be mixed-race, listed as both African-American & Jewish on her wikipedia page.

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  126. They are getting exhausted having to rehash their magical thinking in the face of reality.

    From the quotes given, the arguments in favour of HBD are now being given time in leftist publications. They’re not agreeing with them, of course, but they must feel the need to acknowledge them more directly, and attempt to counter them. And there is less of the shrieking hysteria when they mention these horrid concepts. Things are changing…

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  127. @J.Ross
    Well you see, Barnard, some magazines are dying, collapsing in the face of more dynamic mass media products, and it's best that they die.

    I wish National Review was dying. Just think of what could be done if all the donations given to them to fund the salaries of losers like Jonah Goldberg was actually put to a useful purpose.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Is it not dying? Trying to find a good and current link, everything I see on the way is saying National Review is dying, the Nation has a bigger circulation, NR's influence like its readership is way down, etc.. Wiki says its circulation was 142,667 in 2015 and 90,904 in 2017, Alexa says their online visitors are down from last April.
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  128. @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.

    I knew a black guy like that in college who was majoring in journalism. He always played loud music in his dorm room. Now he always appears on my TV, reporting for a major network.

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  129. @Anonymous
    In the elite fields (biglaw, finance/consulting, medicine) AA are laughably underqualified. journalists, who most assuredly got their bs jobs through nepotism, are always out to accuse others of the same--that somehow white male privilege must balance out the presumably minor AA "bump." Well, no.

    Most people (including conservatives who dislike AA) have no idea how bad it really is. My sister's medical school had remedial classes for black students. Medical school, not undergrad. Remedial classes for people who will be in teaching hospitals wearing their little white coat and seeing patients in a year.


    Lower on the income scale we have, you know, the entire government of the United States which switched from the civil service exam to being just another welfare program.

    The amount of money and benefits and fake jobs these underprivileged people get is truly breathtaking. The forgotten urban youth (btw here's Mark Zuckerberg to talk to Oprah about donating $100mm to one crappy city's schools).

    I have two social workers in my extended family. That's an entire profession of white women we pay to go play surrogate to dysfunctional but highly fecund families of black criminals. Madness.

    There are almost no Blacks in consulting/biglaw past year 3/wall st.

    The cognitive demands of these jobs are high, and the workload far higher. They’re inhuman for Whites and out of the question for Blacks.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    the best way to describe blacks in elite fields is like children playing house; it's pure pantomime. the glass ceiling is more like an opaque wall to understanding.

    steve is always talking about 1 standard deviation difference but do we have any evidence of this normal distribution in black IQ?

    it's the dog that doesn't bark. blacks are not underrepresented or rare in elite fields; they are non-existent. my entire field--a competitive, high prestige IQ shootout--has one (1) black scholar. and that's being generous (he's not relevant in the more serious areas). there are no--not few but zero--black students who cut it, either.

    so where are these supposed four sigma blacks? the numbers just don't work. Neil degrasse Tyson was famous in high school for *wanting* to be a black physicist and he's famous now for wanting to be a black physicist. he simply failed out of his actual graduate program and never did any science. and he's *famous* for this.


    Try looking for them. How is it that Ta-Nehisi Coates is a famous black writer and intellectual? Well...

    People talk about John McWhorter as a counterexample and while he's less silly than Coates he's also not capable of contributing to the IQ heavy side of his field.

    I remember when this man was famous for being a black mathematician. Turns out hes just a nutjob: http://www.latticetheory.net

    Here's Obama's field: http://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2016/05/twenty-most-cited-constitutional-public-law-faculty-in-the-united-states-2010-2014-inclusive.html

    As far as I can tell there's literally one black person participating when the weapon of choice is IQ:
    Https://www.brown.edu/academics/physics/news/2017/07/welcoming-jim-gates-our-new-ford-foundation-professor-physics


    one is...not enough.

    imo Steve's intuition is off because Charles Murray would tell him going to a crappy 14th ranked business school makes you "elite" from the 30,000 ft. view. yeah, no. there's not one person at Anderson business school who wouldn't be laughed out of the room if he even *applied* to my department. there are levels to this and plenty of black people can take dumb business school classes. Steve may *think* some number of his classmates are 145+ IQ but the truth is b-school students are dumb as bricks and we don't find them in any field that *requires* a 145 IQ.
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  130. Anonymous[341] • Disclaimer says:
    @bartok
    There are almost no Blacks in consulting/biglaw past year 3/wall st.

    The cognitive demands of these jobs are high, and the workload far higher. They're inhuman for Whites and out of the question for Blacks.

    the best way to describe blacks in elite fields is like children playing house; it’s pure pantomime. the glass ceiling is more like an opaque wall to understanding.

    steve is always talking about 1 standard deviation difference but do we have any evidence of this normal distribution in black IQ?

    it’s the dog that doesn’t bark. blacks are not underrepresented or rare in elite fields; they are non-existent. my entire field–a competitive, high prestige IQ shootout–has one (1) black scholar. and that’s being generous (he’s not relevant in the more serious areas). there are no–not few but zero–black students who cut it, either.

    so where are these supposed four sigma blacks? the numbers just don’t work. Neil degrasse Tyson was famous in high school for *wanting* to be a black physicist and he’s famous now for wanting to be a black physicist. he simply failed out of his actual graduate program and never did any science. and he’s *famous* for this.

    Try looking for them. How is it that Ta-Nehisi Coates is a famous black writer and intellectual? Well…

    People talk about John McWhorter as a counterexample and while he’s less silly than Coates he’s also not capable of contributing to the IQ heavy side of his field.

    I remember when this man was famous for being a black mathematician. Turns out hes just a nutjob: http://www.latticetheory.net

    Here’s Obama’s field: http://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2016/05/twenty-most-cited-constitutional-public-law-faculty-in-the-united-states-2010-2014-inclusive.html

    As far as I can tell there’s literally one black person participating when the weapon of choice is IQ:

    https://www.brown.edu/academics/physics/news/2017/07/welcoming-jim-gates-our-new-ford-foundation-professor-physics

    one is…not enough.

    imo Steve’s intuition is off because Charles Murray would tell him going to a crappy 14th ranked business school makes you “elite” from the 30,000 ft. view. yeah, no. there’s not one person at Anderson business school who wouldn’t be laughed out of the room if he even *applied* to my department. there are levels to this and plenty of black people can take dumb business school classes. Steve may *think* some number of his classmates are 145+ IQ but the truth is b-school students are dumb as bricks and we don’t find them in any field that *requires* a 145 IQ.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    My impression is this guy was pretty legit:

    Statistician David Blackwell:

    https://ww2.amstat.org/about/statisticiansinhistory/index.cfm?fuseaction=biosinfo&BioID=20

    , @Anonymous
    Jonathan Farley, the black mathematician, might be a nut job, but he seems like the future of STEM education. At Rate My Professors his students really like his class. The midterm and final are tske-home, and you're explicitly allowed to do them along with your classmates as a group. Same with homework. So find a smart, white or Asian "ally," and you're home free.

    Group work is one of several "reforms" being pushed on STEM departments by diversity administrators. Inside Higher Education articles, between the lines, talk about it frequently.

    I await similar reforms in graduate and PhD programs.

    , @candid_observer
    On the link to the top 20 most cited Constitutional lawyers, I saw one woman, a certain Reva Siegel.

    I had a hunch why she might be cited as much as she was. It proved right. One of her most prominent papers was entitled: "She the People: The Nineteenth Amendment, Sex Equality, Federalism, and the Family."

    Are stereotypes ever wrong?

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  131. @Barnard
    I wish National Review was dying. Just think of what could be done if all the donations given to them to fund the salaries of losers like Jonah Goldberg was actually put to a useful purpose.

    Is it not dying? Trying to find a good and current link, everything I see on the way is saying National Review is dying, the Nation has a bigger circulation, NR’s influence like its readership is way down, etc.. Wiki says its circulation was 142,667 in 2015 and 90,904 in 2017, Alexa says their online visitors are down from last April.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The Nation magazine has traditionally been run by excellent business people. Ten years ago it was jammed with ads.
    , @Barnard
    The last circulation number I saw was the one you posted from 2015. They seem to have no trouble raising a lot of money, which I was I said they aren't dying. As long as big donors are funding it they should stick around.
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  132. @Anonymous
    the best way to describe blacks in elite fields is like children playing house; it's pure pantomime. the glass ceiling is more like an opaque wall to understanding.

    steve is always talking about 1 standard deviation difference but do we have any evidence of this normal distribution in black IQ?

    it's the dog that doesn't bark. blacks are not underrepresented or rare in elite fields; they are non-existent. my entire field--a competitive, high prestige IQ shootout--has one (1) black scholar. and that's being generous (he's not relevant in the more serious areas). there are no--not few but zero--black students who cut it, either.

    so where are these supposed four sigma blacks? the numbers just don't work. Neil degrasse Tyson was famous in high school for *wanting* to be a black physicist and he's famous now for wanting to be a black physicist. he simply failed out of his actual graduate program and never did any science. and he's *famous* for this.


    Try looking for them. How is it that Ta-Nehisi Coates is a famous black writer and intellectual? Well...

    People talk about John McWhorter as a counterexample and while he's less silly than Coates he's also not capable of contributing to the IQ heavy side of his field.

    I remember when this man was famous for being a black mathematician. Turns out hes just a nutjob: http://www.latticetheory.net

    Here's Obama's field: http://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2016/05/twenty-most-cited-constitutional-public-law-faculty-in-the-united-states-2010-2014-inclusive.html

    As far as I can tell there's literally one black person participating when the weapon of choice is IQ:
    Https://www.brown.edu/academics/physics/news/2017/07/welcoming-jim-gates-our-new-ford-foundation-professor-physics


    one is...not enough.

    imo Steve's intuition is off because Charles Murray would tell him going to a crappy 14th ranked business school makes you "elite" from the 30,000 ft. view. yeah, no. there's not one person at Anderson business school who wouldn't be laughed out of the room if he even *applied* to my department. there are levels to this and plenty of black people can take dumb business school classes. Steve may *think* some number of his classmates are 145+ IQ but the truth is b-school students are dumb as bricks and we don't find them in any field that *requires* a 145 IQ.

    My impression is this guy was pretty legit:

    Statistician David Blackwell:

    https://ww2.amstat.org/about/statisticiansinhistory/index.cfm?fuseaction=biosinfo&BioID=20

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Let me "unpack" this a little as the kids these days say.


    The reason I'm saying this is because you've offered a (sometimes? mostly?) implicit argument that perhaps libs should calm down because it's just statistics and the stats happen to be a one standard deviation between what's traditionally been considered black and what's traditionally been considered white.


    but the african-american population is large. they have tens of millions of people and zero chess players--across generations. zero is not "uncommon", is it? zero is not "the one standard deviation we typically observe in...", is it? before you demure nb I chose this example because you often cite La Griffe Du Lion who does riff on stats of chess players.


    So where are they? Math, Physics, Philosophy, Computer Science? women are underrepresented in these fields but not impossible. In philosophy, eg, there's no black scholar in the trenches with or against, say, Saul Kripke (generally considered the brightest genius of the last half-century). There are, however, women--Ruth Marcus did similar work and some thought she was undercredited in the shadow of Kripke's incandescence. I also use this example because your friend Steven Pinker's girlfriend (or wife) was a student of his and wrote a book about how he's a weird pervert, Princeton philosophy was therefore disappointing, etc. Hey, it's hard out there. Leading legal scholar and Obama mentor Laurence Tribe said he majored in math at Harvard but quit the field when he discovered to his shock that not only was he merely the second smartest student at Harvard, but the gap between him and the valedictorian math major was humiliatingly large; Kripke was the classmate.


    The other point I was hinting at is that the reason this is relevant to your argument that people should "chill out" is because it will not do to just have some blacks in 80th percentile jobs. It won't do for them because that would still lock them out from intellectual cultural influence, which in a meritocracy would be dominated by the deep waters of the one percent (where I am saying blacks are not thin on the ground but absent).

    Of course, we have David Brooks and Thomas Friedman and Coates, so "merit" is not the main feature...but then we're back the beginning because I thought that's exactly what you'd like to change.
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  133. @J.Ross
    Is it not dying? Trying to find a good and current link, everything I see on the way is saying National Review is dying, the Nation has a bigger circulation, NR's influence like its readership is way down, etc.. Wiki says its circulation was 142,667 in 2015 and 90,904 in 2017, Alexa says their online visitors are down from last April.

    The Nation magazine has traditionally been run by excellent business people. Ten years ago it was jammed with ads.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Communist Capitalists. Or Capitalist Communists.
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  134. @res

    First of all: did Chetty really find that “black female income = white female income, if parental income is the same”? There must be a regression table somewhere in his paper that is being summarized in that way (i.e., some Black or Black x Female coefficient is estimated as being small). Where is it? The devil is in the details, and I looked through the article searching for this, but did not find it.
     
    The closest thing I saw is FIGURE VIII: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Black-White Income Gap on page 83. My understanding is that your quoted statement is supported by the second bar (Par. Inc) showing 1-2 percent gaps in favor of black women. However, the other marriage based factors depressing white female income we have been discussing call that conclusion into question IMHO.

    The unconditional version (not conditioning on parental income, only on other family factors) is ONLINE APPENDIX FIGURE VI: Effects of Family-Level Factors on the Unconditional Black-White Gap on page 97.

    The paper with the supplemental material is 106 pages long! Plus there are the data tables at http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data/
    I have missed several things and am glad we have a number of people looking at this. Thanks for providing both your analyses and a forum to discuss this, Steve.

    Thanks. The regression output is not provided in the paper. Figure VIII has only the model predictions at 25th and 75 percentiles. The specification is equation (5) on p 24-25 but they don’t show the results (coefficients etc).

    I don’t yet see an indication that they found anything important about black vs white females, or anything to slay the Gap dragon. The estimate of 1 percent differences at equal parental incomes is badly contradicted by the figure VII on the previous page. Despite controlling for parent income, differences on measures other than income percentile correspond (by considering the horizontal shift between curves) to differences of MUCH more than 1 percentile in parent income.

    The measure that they hype when it is small for black women is quite positive or negative for females of other races so it being close to zero for black women could be an accident of their methodology. It seems to function as an index of “workforce engagement” patterns by race and gender rather than actual earning potential.

    Read More
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  135. @DFH
    They're going to be repeating this for years and years, aren't they?

    It’s really the perfect bit of pseudo-scientific agitprop. It seems reasonable the way it’s presented, and the rebuttal requires more intellectual firepower to comprehend, not to mention discover. The famous Bertrand Russell quote comes to mind.

    Read More
    • Replies: @academic gossip
    The big picture of the findings is not hard to describe honestly:

    --- white women out-earn black women (in wages per hour) with same parental income. Chetty dismisses this and ignores AA effects and the rest of his results to get the NYT fodder.
    --- white men are far more likely than black men to work and earn (taxed, reported) income to support a family
    --- black women increase their rate of employment and hours worked to cover the black male deficit
    --- that plus affirmative action raises their earnings slightly above white women with same-income parents
    --- immigrant and Asian women also outwork white women, relative to parent income, and surpass them more so than black women

    --- other than this "black female breadwinner" (or low-earning white mom) pattern, everything else is what a Gap would predict.

    --- affirmative action levels are overkill for black women because they are calibrated to overall black population rates of employment, wages, college attendance etc that include men.

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  136. Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  137. Anonymous[388] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    the best way to describe blacks in elite fields is like children playing house; it's pure pantomime. the glass ceiling is more like an opaque wall to understanding.

    steve is always talking about 1 standard deviation difference but do we have any evidence of this normal distribution in black IQ?

    it's the dog that doesn't bark. blacks are not underrepresented or rare in elite fields; they are non-existent. my entire field--a competitive, high prestige IQ shootout--has one (1) black scholar. and that's being generous (he's not relevant in the more serious areas). there are no--not few but zero--black students who cut it, either.

    so where are these supposed four sigma blacks? the numbers just don't work. Neil degrasse Tyson was famous in high school for *wanting* to be a black physicist and he's famous now for wanting to be a black physicist. he simply failed out of his actual graduate program and never did any science. and he's *famous* for this.


    Try looking for them. How is it that Ta-Nehisi Coates is a famous black writer and intellectual? Well...

    People talk about John McWhorter as a counterexample and while he's less silly than Coates he's also not capable of contributing to the IQ heavy side of his field.

    I remember when this man was famous for being a black mathematician. Turns out hes just a nutjob: http://www.latticetheory.net

    Here's Obama's field: http://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2016/05/twenty-most-cited-constitutional-public-law-faculty-in-the-united-states-2010-2014-inclusive.html

    As far as I can tell there's literally one black person participating when the weapon of choice is IQ:
    Https://www.brown.edu/academics/physics/news/2017/07/welcoming-jim-gates-our-new-ford-foundation-professor-physics


    one is...not enough.

    imo Steve's intuition is off because Charles Murray would tell him going to a crappy 14th ranked business school makes you "elite" from the 30,000 ft. view. yeah, no. there's not one person at Anderson business school who wouldn't be laughed out of the room if he even *applied* to my department. there are levels to this and plenty of black people can take dumb business school classes. Steve may *think* some number of his classmates are 145+ IQ but the truth is b-school students are dumb as bricks and we don't find them in any field that *requires* a 145 IQ.

    Jonathan Farley, the black mathematician, might be a nut job, but he seems like the future of STEM education. At Rate My Professors his students really like his class. The midterm and final are tske-home, and you’re explicitly allowed to do them along with your classmates as a group. Same with homework. So find a smart, white or Asian “ally,” and you’re home free.

    Group work is one of several “reforms” being pushed on STEM departments by diversity administrators. Inside Higher Education articles, between the lines, talk about it frequently.

    I await similar reforms in graduate and PhD programs.

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I stopped paying attention to professor-rating sites after I noticed that all the professors I liked and that were objectively good were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal. Also I once attended a post-grading meeting (my first and last) in a biology class in which I got an A; I had no questions but I was so impressed with the professor, I wanted to hear what anyone else could possibly complain about. It was kids whining about the existence of homework. We deserve the future Han historian who will inform students that the telephone and automobile were products of the immaculate Ming civilization.
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  138. @Anon
    Maybe this is obvious, but both black men and black women in the top 10% pretty much have their choice of job offers because businesses need to appear diverse so they grab whoever's the best available. (So every crime show has a black tech wizard who mostly can barely say their lines.) So their pay levels are much higher than you'd otherwise expect.

    The top 10 percent of black Americans starts at IQ 100.38 (median 85, SD 12).

    Read More
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  139. Ed says:
    @Steve Sailer
    The athlete/entertainer thing is a good question.

    Chetty has a top 0.1% of parents income, where I think athletes would be common. I've known a couple of black kids whose dads were superstar athletes back in the 1990s. But I don't know how long they made 99.9th percentile incomes and they weren't around much.

    I was thinking this too but the NFL & NBA weren’t paying high salaries in the late 1970s when the cohort of this study was born. So I’m not sure if the few wealthy blacks were atheletes.

    MLB had started paying higher salaries at this time and black Americans were a higher % of players than they are today but I’m not sure how many made top dollar.

    I’m thinking in the 1970s the top .01% of black households were probably the light skinned elite.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    I was thinking this too but the NFL & NBA weren’t paying high salaries in the late 1970s when the cohort of this study was born.
     
    That is a good point. To be more precise, the children were born in 1978-1983.

    But also highly relevant for your point is when they looked at the parental income:

    We measure their parents’ income as mean household income between 1994 and 2000, when their children are between the ages of 11 and 22.

     

    How many athletes have children from 11-22 during their peak salary years? Sincere question. However, those years are well into the high salary years for sports so it argues against the reason you gave.

    The ages of the children would seem to select against picking up high earning athletes there as well:

    We measure children’s incomes as their mean household income in 2014-15, when they are in their mid-thirties.
     
    The stereotype is not many black athletes invest their money wisely (i.e. would be making a good income later in life from savings), but I don't know how common the exceptions are.
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  140. Ed says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    This is all so confusing. I thought all black women lived liked the "Real Housewives of Atlanta" or Beverley Hills. Sorry to hear that they aren't doing that well. Need more shows like the "Real housewives of Flint or Trenton or Baltimore." On the other hand, the black men's numbers seem real as they all go straight from school to prison in the Magic Pipeline.

    Reality TV is a great place to witness the downward mobility of blacks. The main star of RHOA, Nene is a former stripper with two sons. She marries a client, who is in real estate and provides a more stable and affluent living.

    Anyway her oldest son didn’t even go to college or dropped out soon after. Got some girl pregnant and worked at Wal-Mart. Not sure what he does now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Ed, New show..."Real single moms of Atlanta and their sons."
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  141. @sailer's_choice
    With a sample size of 1800 black women representing the 99.93rd percentile of black parental income, I wonder how many are the children of athletes and currently receive income related to that athletic talent (i.e.; not primarily from intellectual capacity). So again, bell curves everywhere.

    On the other hand i got hooked into finally finding out who exactly paris hilton is, i mean i knew she was a slut grandaughter of the Hilton but beyond that i kinda wondered how she and the others stay afloat. seems like she makes for instance 10 million a year on perfume alone about the same for public appearances ( she cant actually speak) and sundry other gigs like realty tv and and c movies.

    as for this debate whites have no idea the extent of affirmative action that goes on let alone its consequences, you cant make any intelligent sense of this data without looking at how that worked, it s massive and why nothing works even Iacocaa said it wasnt the japanese that destroyed the american car industry it was incompetent blacks coming into the unions through affirmative action, all are governments are administered by black women as is our healthcare etc

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  142. @Arclight
    True - if the feds offered some kind of refundable tax credit to people under a certain income/age who were childless (and called it something like a personal development credit, on the theory people would use it for school or something similar), that might help. So would free birth control implants for any woman who wanted it. Welfare for single mothers incentivized out of wedlock childbearing for women at the bottom of the economic ladder, so we should make it more lucrative to stay childless.

    By the nature of lower-class people, future orientation and impulse control is lower. The effect of incentives would probably be pretty low, unless you literally cut off all welfare and social services, and even then, the effect would probably show itself through deaths by poor health and malnutrition.

    My suggestion would be an offer of a high payment and a promise of lifetime payments in exchange for voluntary, permanent sterilization. This would have the benefit of removing the dysfunctional people from the reproductive gene pool, and with every comfort available to them. They would be supported all their lives, hopefully in some comfort, but would not contribute children to be similarly cared for.

    My feeling is that such programs should be privately funded and privately administered, with no government involvement and no coercion. If someone wanted to have children and forgo guaranteed support, then they would be free to do so, and probably would be a benefit to the gene pool anyway. Once you get government involved, the program would likely do more harm than good.

    Read More
    • Agree: Travis
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  143. @J.Ross
    Is it not dying? Trying to find a good and current link, everything I see on the way is saying National Review is dying, the Nation has a bigger circulation, NR's influence like its readership is way down, etc.. Wiki says its circulation was 142,667 in 2015 and 90,904 in 2017, Alexa says their online visitors are down from last April.

    The last circulation number I saw was the one you posted from 2015. They seem to have no trouble raising a lot of money, which I was I said they aren’t dying. As long as big donors are funding it they should stick around.

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  144. @Ed
    Reality TV is a great place to witness the downward mobility of blacks. The main star of RHOA, Nene is a former stripper with two sons. She marries a client, who is in real estate and provides a more stable and affluent living.

    Anyway her oldest son didn’t even go to college or dropped out soon after. Got some girl pregnant and worked at Wal-Mart. Not sure what he does now.

    Ed, New show…”Real single moms of Atlanta and their sons.”

    Read More
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  145. Anonymous[181] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    My impression is this guy was pretty legit:

    Statistician David Blackwell:

    https://ww2.amstat.org/about/statisticiansinhistory/index.cfm?fuseaction=biosinfo&BioID=20

    Let me “unpack” this a little as the kids these days say.

    The reason I’m saying this is because you’ve offered a (sometimes? mostly?) implicit argument that perhaps libs should calm down because it’s just statistics and the stats happen to be a one standard deviation between what’s traditionally been considered black and what’s traditionally been considered white.

    but the african-american population is large. they have tens of millions of people and zero chess players–across generations. zero is not “uncommon”, is it? zero is not “the one standard deviation we typically observe in…”, is it? before you demure nb I chose this example because you often cite La Griffe Du Lion who does riff on stats of chess players.

    So where are they? Math, Physics, Philosophy, Computer Science? women are underrepresented in these fields but not impossible. In philosophy, eg, there’s no black scholar in the trenches with or against, say, Saul Kripke (generally considered the brightest genius of the last half-century). There are, however, women–Ruth Marcus did similar work and some thought she was undercredited in the shadow of Kripke’s incandescence. I also use this example because your friend Steven Pinker’s girlfriend (or wife) was a student of his and wrote a book about how he’s a weird pervert, Princeton philosophy was therefore disappointing, etc. Hey, it’s hard out there. Leading legal scholar and Obama mentor Laurence Tribe said he majored in math at Harvard but quit the field when he discovered to his shock that not only was he merely the second smartest student at Harvard, but the gap between him and the valedictorian math major was humiliatingly large; Kripke was the classmate.

    The other point I was hinting at is that the reason this is relevant to your argument that people should “chill out” is because it will not do to just have some blacks in 80th percentile jobs. It won’t do for them because that would still lock them out from intellectual cultural influence, which in a meritocracy would be dominated by the deep waters of the one percent (where I am saying blacks are not thin on the ground but absent).

    Of course, we have David Brooks and Thomas Friedman and Coates, so “merit” is not the main feature…but then we’re back the beginning because I thought that’s exactly what you’d like to change.

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  146. @Ed
    I was thinking this too but the NFL & NBA weren’t paying high salaries in the late 1970s when the cohort of this study was born. So I’m not sure if the few wealthy blacks were atheletes.

    MLB had started paying higher salaries at this time and black Americans were a higher % of players than they are today but I’m not sure how many made top dollar.

    I’m thinking in the 1970s the top .01% of black households were probably the light skinned elite.

    I was thinking this too but the NFL & NBA weren’t paying high salaries in the late 1970s when the cohort of this study was born.

    That is a good point. To be more precise, the children were born in 1978-1983.

    But also highly relevant for your point is when they looked at the parental income:

    We measure their parents’ income as mean household income between 1994 and 2000, when their children are between the ages of 11 and 22.

    How many athletes have children from 11-22 during their peak salary years? Sincere question. However, those years are well into the high salary years for sports so it argues against the reason you gave.

    The ages of the children would seem to select against picking up high earning athletes there as well:

    We measure children’s incomes as their mean household income in 2014-15, when they are in their mid-thirties.

    The stereotype is not many black athletes invest their money wisely (i.e. would be making a good income later in life from savings), but I don’t know how common the exceptions are.

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  147. @Mishra
    It's really the perfect bit of pseudo-scientific agitprop. It seems reasonable the way it's presented, and the rebuttal requires more intellectual firepower to comprehend, not to mention discover. The famous Bertrand Russell quote comes to mind.

    The big picture of the findings is not hard to describe honestly:

    — white women out-earn black women (in wages per hour) with same parental income. Chetty dismisses this and ignores AA effects and the rest of his results to get the NYT fodder.
    — white men are far more likely than black men to work and earn (taxed, reported) income to support a family
    — black women increase their rate of employment and hours worked to cover the black male deficit
    — that plus affirmative action raises their earnings slightly above white women with same-income parents
    — immigrant and Asian women also outwork white women, relative to parent income, and surpass them more so than black women

    — other than this “black female breadwinner” (or low-earning white mom) pattern, everything else is what a Gap would predict.

    affirmative action levels are overkill for black women because they are calibrated to overall black population rates of employment, wages, college attendance etc that include men.

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    • Replies: @academic gossip
    I should add that except for the last line, all of that is just an unpacking of figures VI, VII, VIII (pp. 81-83) and Online Appendix Figure VII (p. 98) in the Chetty paper.
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  148. @academic gossip
    The big picture of the findings is not hard to describe honestly:

    --- white women out-earn black women (in wages per hour) with same parental income. Chetty dismisses this and ignores AA effects and the rest of his results to get the NYT fodder.
    --- white men are far more likely than black men to work and earn (taxed, reported) income to support a family
    --- black women increase their rate of employment and hours worked to cover the black male deficit
    --- that plus affirmative action raises their earnings slightly above white women with same-income parents
    --- immigrant and Asian women also outwork white women, relative to parent income, and surpass them more so than black women

    --- other than this "black female breadwinner" (or low-earning white mom) pattern, everything else is what a Gap would predict.

    --- affirmative action levels are overkill for black women because they are calibrated to overall black population rates of employment, wages, college attendance etc that include men.

    I should add that except for the last line, all of that is just an unpacking of figures VI, VII, VIII (pp. 81-83) and Online Appendix Figure VII (p. 98) in the Chetty paper.

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  149. @Anonymous
    the best way to describe blacks in elite fields is like children playing house; it's pure pantomime. the glass ceiling is more like an opaque wall to understanding.

    steve is always talking about 1 standard deviation difference but do we have any evidence of this normal distribution in black IQ?

    it's the dog that doesn't bark. blacks are not underrepresented or rare in elite fields; they are non-existent. my entire field--a competitive, high prestige IQ shootout--has one (1) black scholar. and that's being generous (he's not relevant in the more serious areas). there are no--not few but zero--black students who cut it, either.

    so where are these supposed four sigma blacks? the numbers just don't work. Neil degrasse Tyson was famous in high school for *wanting* to be a black physicist and he's famous now for wanting to be a black physicist. he simply failed out of his actual graduate program and never did any science. and he's *famous* for this.


    Try looking for them. How is it that Ta-Nehisi Coates is a famous black writer and intellectual? Well...

    People talk about John McWhorter as a counterexample and while he's less silly than Coates he's also not capable of contributing to the IQ heavy side of his field.

    I remember when this man was famous for being a black mathematician. Turns out hes just a nutjob: http://www.latticetheory.net

    Here's Obama's field: http://leiterlawschool.typepad.com/leiter/2016/05/twenty-most-cited-constitutional-public-law-faculty-in-the-united-states-2010-2014-inclusive.html

    As far as I can tell there's literally one black person participating when the weapon of choice is IQ:
    Https://www.brown.edu/academics/physics/news/2017/07/welcoming-jim-gates-our-new-ford-foundation-professor-physics


    one is...not enough.

    imo Steve's intuition is off because Charles Murray would tell him going to a crappy 14th ranked business school makes you "elite" from the 30,000 ft. view. yeah, no. there's not one person at Anderson business school who wouldn't be laughed out of the room if he even *applied* to my department. there are levels to this and plenty of black people can take dumb business school classes. Steve may *think* some number of his classmates are 145+ IQ but the truth is b-school students are dumb as bricks and we don't find them in any field that *requires* a 145 IQ.

    On the link to the top 20 most cited Constitutional lawyers, I saw one woman, a certain Reva Siegel.

    I had a hunch why she might be cited as much as she was. It proved right. One of her most prominent papers was entitled: “She the People: The Nineteenth Amendment, Sex Equality, Federalism, and the Family.”

    Are stereotypes ever wrong?

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  150. @countenance
    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It's probably the first time in history that a black woman isn't big-upping black women. Any other time it's "sistah powah," "white women wear weave too," "white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us."

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote

    Historian and philosopher of science now ? Not too long ago she was (embarassingly) a physicist.
    It’d be best if she weren’t part of the academy at all and no one ever listened to her, but it’s good that pretending to be a physicist turned out to be too “exhausting”. #emotionalLabor

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  151. Anonymous[120] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Her name is super super super tiring.

    Chanda Prescod-Weinstein.

    That’s a powerful trifecta: Brahmin, WASP, Ashkenazi.

    And she’s got black Pokemon points!
     
    Her full name, from her Ph.D. thesis:

    Chanda Rosalyn Sojourner Prescod-Weinstein


    https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/5498/Prescod-Weinstein_Chanda.pdf;sequence=3

    From the Acknowledgements:

    The Igbo saying Ora na-azu nwa means that the community raises the child. In my case, it has been many communities. An extraordinary number of extraordinarypeople helped get me to where I am now.
     
    This is only the first of many Igbo quotes. Aren't the Igbo the Weinsteins of East Africa?

    My sister Maya Trinidad Maldonado-Weinstein ...

    My step-mother Maria is fiercely intelligent ...

    Mijn stiefvader Maarten ...

    My Grandma Elsa, Grandpa Stanley, Uncle Peter, Auntie Rosaline, and mother survived a difficult passage, leaving Barbados to come and make way for me and my cousins ...
     

    Aren’t the Igbo the Weinsteins of East Africa?

    Nope, West Africa (mostly Nigeria, e.g. former “Biafra.”)

    My Grandma Elsa, Grandpa Stanley, Uncle Peter, Auntie Rosaline, and mother survived a difficult passage, leaving Barbados to come and make way for me and my cousins …

    Didn’t know slave ships were still running in the 1950s. The dreaded Barbados passage, no less! Lucky that Grandpa Stanley and Auntie Rosaline “survived” the “passage” in the comfort of their cabin without being fed to the sharks.

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  152. @Arclight
    Worth pointing out that an average black woman and average black man working full time would combine to have a fairly comfortable household income, even though it would be lower than an average white couple. Leaving IQ aside, the fact that marriage has become increasingly uncommon in black America explains a lot of the cultural and economic struggles it experiences, but it's certainly not fashionable on the left or the right to promote the idea that a return to mores of mid-20th century America would probably have a significant and beneficial effect on the worst-performing segment of our society.

    This is not possible given the lack of availability of marriageable young black men. Ask any African American woman what her experience has been on Match.com

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  153. @Anonymous
    Jonathan Farley, the black mathematician, might be a nut job, but he seems like the future of STEM education. At Rate My Professors his students really like his class. The midterm and final are tske-home, and you're explicitly allowed to do them along with your classmates as a group. Same with homework. So find a smart, white or Asian "ally," and you're home free.

    Group work is one of several "reforms" being pushed on STEM departments by diversity administrators. Inside Higher Education articles, between the lines, talk about it frequently.

    I await similar reforms in graduate and PhD programs.

    I stopped paying attention to professor-rating sites after I noticed that all the professors I liked and that were objectively good were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal. Also I once attended a post-grading meeting (my first and last) in a biology class in which I got an A; I had no questions but I was so impressed with the professor, I wanted to hear what anyone else could possibly complain about. It was kids whining about the existence of homework. We deserve the future Han historian who will inform students that the telephone and automobile were products of the immaculate Ming civilization.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    If you read comments on Rate My Professors carefully, noting the likely IQ of the raters, you can learn a lot.

    "Prof Jones sux! LOL"

    vs.

    "Professor Jones really opened my eyes to the often overlooked similarities and differences between the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires in the Balkans. He was very gracious in discussing at length after class my often naive ideas about the two."

    , @ScarletNumber

    were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal.
     
    LOL what sort of appeals process were you expecting? That's like expecting Yelp to have appeals.
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  154. @J.Ross
    I stopped paying attention to professor-rating sites after I noticed that all the professors I liked and that were objectively good were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal. Also I once attended a post-grading meeting (my first and last) in a biology class in which I got an A; I had no questions but I was so impressed with the professor, I wanted to hear what anyone else could possibly complain about. It was kids whining about the existence of homework. We deserve the future Han historian who will inform students that the telephone and automobile were products of the immaculate Ming civilization.

    If you read comments on Rate My Professors carefully, noting the likely IQ of the raters, you can learn a lot.

    “Prof Jones sux! LOL”

    vs.

    “Professor Jones really opened my eyes to the often overlooked similarities and differences between the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires in the Balkans. He was very gracious in discussing at length after class my often naive ideas about the two.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Sounds to me like the lot you're learning is a guess. A reasonable guess from an intelligent person is still subject to experience. Insofar as I have phronesis, ie actually knowing the professors being evaluated, the site is rubbish. (In fact in one case I have a reasonable guess on who wrote one of the bad reviews; they're intelligent, but not honest.) The fact that it can win credibility with a little presentation is distressing to me rather than vindicating for the site. All of those brats babbling about loving science have decent verbal skills. This pseudo-democratic, scientistic site is an illustration of the false expertise crisis.
    There's really only one good reason to have a site like this: to identify the truly unfair bastards, who are far more rare in the wild than is thought.
    Bonus points: do they allow through complaints about foreigners who are a lot less fluent in English than they think they are? I have not examined this but would bet that it lines up with the moral fashions of the current year.
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  155. @Arclight
    Worth pointing out that an average black woman and average black man working full time would combine to have a fairly comfortable household income, even though it would be lower than an average white couple. Leaving IQ aside, the fact that marriage has become increasingly uncommon in black America explains a lot of the cultural and economic struggles it experiences, but it's certainly not fashionable on the left or the right to promote the idea that a return to mores of mid-20th century America would probably have a significant and beneficial effect on the worst-performing segment of our society.

    good point, but Black women have few marriage prospects…this explains why the Black daughters of wealthy parents have a marriage rate of just 33% veer 65% for the white daughters of wealthy parents.

    Far fewer Black males attend college compared to Black females and the incarceration rate for Black males approaches 10%. In addition the most successful Black males will marry white women.

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  156. @countenance
    “I am super super super super super super super tired of the way sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman,” the historian and philosopher of science Chanda Prescod-Weinstein wrote. …

    It's probably the first time in history that a black woman isn't big-upping black women. Any other time it's "sistah powah," "white women wear weave too," "white women get tans and lip injections and butt injections to look like us."

    Of course, this is a Weinstein writing this, not a black woman.

    sociological data is used to reify the myth that Black women are superhuman

    Does she know what “reify” means? (BTW surely SJW should spell it re_ï_fy to make it look more French and even more sophisticated?)

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  157. @J.Ross
    I stopped paying attention to professor-rating sites after I noticed that all the professors I liked and that were objectively good were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal. Also I once attended a post-grading meeting (my first and last) in a biology class in which I got an A; I had no questions but I was so impressed with the professor, I wanted to hear what anyone else could possibly complain about. It was kids whining about the existence of homework. We deserve the future Han historian who will inform students that the telephone and automobile were products of the immaculate Ming civilization.

    were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal.

    LOL what sort of appeals process were you expecting? That’s like expecting Yelp to have appeals.

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    I thought some of those sites claimed to have a self-policing function, obviously not Yelp or Amazon but like Emily's List and LknkedIn. As far as how that would work, it seens pretty simple: require a minimum number of students for each professor so it's not just one bitter failure. Reviews at different times could confirm that an egregious policy is still in effect. A lot of the "alt-right" videos pulled frpm YouTube get pulled as the result of a kind of appeal, where somebody claims that they are blatantly false (this is not a widely applied standard but it exists).
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  158. @Lot
    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    I don't think you hire Bolton unless this is the plan.

    I hope they are not dumb enough to attempt an occupation of Iran.

    That leaves a heavy bombardment. Can we not waste tons of money on hundreds of very expensive cruise missles like the Syria airfield strike? Take out the air defenses and after that stick to B-52s and our older fighters dropping dumb and older gen smart bombs.

    Other options include taking out the AQ/ISIS and Iran linked factions in the Yemen civil war and/or removing the government of Qatar in favor of another member of the royal family who will serve US/Saudi/Israel interests.

    Closer to home, we could regeme change Cuba or Venezuela.

    My preference is to do none of these, but what is the least bad option? My least favorite option next to ground troops in Iran is getting involved in Yemen with ground troops.

    Best bet IMO is a lightening invasion of Qatar, in and out, merely replacing the head royal. We already have soldiers there, will be simple.

    Venezuela could be fast too. The last few semi free elections went to the opposition but were not honored by the communist regime. The opposition has majority overall support, close to complete support of the elite and middle classes, and has partial control of some regional and local governments. Could be as easy as removing everyone in Maduro's party from office and letting the remaining people work things out.

    Imagine Trumps support level if he quickly and cheaply took out two hostile anti American regimes! This would also be the first real wars we watched with new gen drones and on 4K TV. Suddenly the media would actually like Trump.

    What war will be big enough and easy enough to win to save the GOP from midterm disaster and a subsequent impeachment of Trump?

    Any war will make things worse for Trump. Stupid wars are part of why he got elected. If he launches one, it won’t just be his impeachment that will be certain. It will be his removal from office.

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  159. @Steve Sailer
    The Nation magazine has traditionally been run by excellent business people. Ten years ago it was jammed with ads.

    Communist Capitalists. Or Capitalist Communists.

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  160. @Steve Sailer
    If you read comments on Rate My Professors carefully, noting the likely IQ of the raters, you can learn a lot.

    "Prof Jones sux! LOL"

    vs.

    "Professor Jones really opened my eyes to the often overlooked similarities and differences between the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires in the Balkans. He was very gracious in discussing at length after class my often naive ideas about the two."

    Sounds to me like the lot you’re learning is a guess. A reasonable guess from an intelligent person is still subject to experience. Insofar as I have phronesis, ie actually knowing the professors being evaluated, the site is rubbish. (In fact in one case I have a reasonable guess on who wrote one of the bad reviews; they’re intelligent, but not honest.) The fact that it can win credibility with a little presentation is distressing to me rather than vindicating for the site. All of those brats babbling about loving science have decent verbal skills. This pseudo-democratic, scientistic site is an illustration of the false expertise crisis.
    There’s really only one good reason to have a site like this: to identify the truly unfair bastards, who are far more rare in the wild than is thought.
    Bonus points: do they allow through complaints about foreigners who are a lot less fluent in English than they think they are? I have not examined this but would bet that it lines up with the moral fashions of the current year.

    Read More
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  161. @ScarletNumber

    were getting absolutely trashed, no criteria, no appeal.
     
    LOL what sort of appeals process were you expecting? That's like expecting Yelp to have appeals.

    I thought some of those sites claimed to have a self-policing function, obviously not Yelp or Amazon but like Emily’s List and LknkedIn. As far as how that would work, it seens pretty simple: require a minimum number of students for each professor so it’s not just one bitter failure. Reviews at different times could confirm that an egregious policy is still in effect. A lot of the “alt-right” videos pulled frpm YouTube get pulled as the result of a kind of appeal, where somebody claims that they are blatantly false (this is not a widely applied standard but it exists).

    Read More
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