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I very seldom make election predictions, but you can go right ahead in the comments.

 
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  1. The GOP picks up Missouri and North Dakota and holds on to Arizona and Nevada (i.e., +2).

    The Dems gain 25 in the House, giving them two more than a bare majority.

  2. Carnack says:

    Prop 10 will fail.

    Repubs will take the House and the Senate handily.

    Extra Credit:
    Ivanka Trump will be our first female President.

  3. Dan Smith says:

    Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

    • Agree: Colin Wright
  4. I’m pretty much stumped.

    A lot of inconsistent indicators. We live in revolutionary times, from a political point of view. Nobody really understands what the indicators truly mean.

    I doubt anybody has a good handle on how to put them together into a reliable forecast.

    • Agree: NickG
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  5. I’m not good at predictions, especially those concerning the future. but here I go again:

    GOP holds on to the majority in the House, but narrowly. Very narrowly. Senate ends up with a 53-47 GOP majority.

    • Agree: TTSSYF
  6. Cao Cao says:

    Republicans gain more Senate seats, narrowly keep House; Democrats sad – Nate Silver eats more crow.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  7. FKA Max says:

    I agree with Mr. Karlin:

    I’ll make the safe prediction that Republicans will keep the Senate but lose the House.http://www.unz.com/akarlin/us-elections-2018/#p_1_8:1-15

    Additional resources:

    Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

    Allan Lichtman: Why President Trump will be impeached – BBC Newsnight

    Author Allan Lichtman Believes Multiple Grounds For Impeachment | Morning Joe | MSNBC

    Here are five ways Trump a Democratic US House might try to impeach Donald Trump

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/10/26/here-are-five-ways-trump-a-democratic-us-house-might-try-to-impeach-donald-trump/

  8. Barnard says:

    There has been a major push nationally to take out Steve King in Iowa, not only from progressives, but also from Conservatism, Inc. losers like David French. King wins, but by a much smaller margin than he did two years ago (maybe 53%-47% or worse) and the NRCC pressures him to step down in 2020 or face a GOP establishment funded primary opponent. The Democrats never do this to anyone on their side, but because of their “principles” King is beyond the pale.

    Republicans pick up two or three Senate seats and have a terrible night in the Governor races and in the House. The obvious solution in the post mortem is more immigration outreach and cautioning candidates about their tone when dealing with the left. Plus blaming Trump, it will all be Trump’s fault.

  9. NYMOM says:

    I know of a couple of ‘prayer circles’ going on in Northern Florida right now hoping the republicans hold the house and senate…For what it’s worth they held prayer circles for weeks hoping Trump would be elected President.

    At the time, I thought they were nuts but then he won, so who know….

  10. Barnard says:
    @PhysicistDave

    They should do this regardless, but if the margin in the House is one or two seats, the GOP needs to work on expelling Keith Ellison’s replacement for her immigration and student loan fraud charges as soon as she is sworn in.

  11. anon215 says:

    I think that Hwyte people will continue to pretend they’re all progressive and shit but when they’re all alone in that voting booth……

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  12. Civil war. But i just can’t figure out after which election.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @L Woods
  13. Luke Lea says:

    Here are the current betting odds, which in so far as control of the house is concerned are similar to what they were before Brexit and 2016:

    https://goo.gl/hfyPLw

    • Replies: @Lot
  14. Spangel says:

    Anyone in Florida have bets on the senate and governor races? Any explanation for how the polls could be wrong there?

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
    , @Dtbb
  15. In my totally, completely unscientific estimation of the lines I’ve seen at early-voting locations in my heavily-blue city, I think it’s going to be a long night for the GOP.

    FWIW, I’m in a state that doesn’t have a Senate or governor’s race this year.

    • Replies: @Spangel
  16. Wilkey says:

    GOP holds the House just barely. They pick up 6 (yes, S-I-X) seats in the seat, plus or minus one.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  17. Wilkey says:

    Additional predictions:

    Mia Love loses in Utah (thank God).

    And for the safest prediction of all: Democrats riot…again.

  18. Democrats retake the House, and then proceed to: (a) accomplish too little to placate the Democrat base, thereby reducing Democrat enthusiasm; while (b) accomplishing just enough obstruction and leftist posturing to convince Republicans and normies that the Democrats should not get control of anything else.

    At least it could work out like that.

  19. Bart says:

    It’s almost like Paul Ryan is a fucking idiot who’s policies are horrendously unpopular and Trump should have forced him out on Day 1 and not gone along with repealing Obamacare which hardly any of his Rust Belt voters cared about. Whoda thunk?

    If the GOP keeps the Senate they’ll be lucky.

  20. @Carnack

    Midterms: Republicans will hit the lottery.
    Soon thereafter: Ruth Bader Ginsburg will get hit by a bus.
    That’s when the real fun will start.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @J.Ross
  21. There will be violence.

    Either the Republicans/Trump come out ahead in which case the left will riot because Trump “cheated” – “Russian interference”. Or the Democrats come out ahead in which case they will be going for sweet, sweet revenge against Trump and his supporters aka “White people”.

  22. @Cao Cao

    Nate Silver eats more crow.

    Corvinus had better be careful. Nate Silver’s crow diet is growing to truly gluttonous proportions.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  23. Bart says:

    I’ll just add that the one thing I really want to see is Joe Manchin lose. I seriously despise him more than untraliberals like Tammy Baldwin.

  24. I very seldom make election predictions…

    Smart move. The best approach is to be ready for anything that happens.

  25. Tim says:

    Don’t know why, but I bet Repubs keep both houses, and that water buffalo down in GA loses badly.

    not confident on FLA but will call it anyway: repub win.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  26. Art Deco says:
    @Barnard

    but also from Conservatism, Inc. losers like David French.

    There’s something repulsively other-directed and whiny about French. Rather like Rod Dreher, but not quite the same vibe.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  27. Anonymous[346] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    Civil war. But i just can’t figure out after which election.

    Nah, we’ll just see more unraveling which will result in tighter policing, more heavy-handed tactics, and more draconian laws to keep things in order. I foresee the implementation of regional economic sanctions against Deplorable America to both punish and weaken. The oligarchs will push for this citing the success of similar controls (sanctions) against rogue regimes like Iran and Russia.

    The 2016 Presidential election taught the oligarchs that they need to have greater control over the democratic process to peclude another wild card. They obviously have a tight leash on almost every national politician but this fluke with Trump totally threw them for a loop.

  28. No matter who wins what, not much will really change. We will still move closer to a final end to the principles this nation was founded on, and closer to a globalist/crony corporatist/oligarchic form of governance. That is what everyone in all the capitals of the world want, and that is what they are going to try to get. Dem or Repub will continue to help them along.

    What will be fun (depending on one’s vantage) are the entertainment possibilities. If the Dems win the House (or even get close. I could see some RINOS shifting to the Dem caucus, especially if it only took a couple)it will be hilarious to see them go after Trump. Irritating, but he will tear them up. And nothing will be accomplished anyhow, it is all theater.

    If the Repubs show up big, and there is anything at all to the Sessions investigation that no one ever talks about, it might be real funny to see a bunch of indictments come down on Dems for their conduct in 2016, including (just for the ratings) Barry O and the Hildebeast, Comeym Clapper, Brennan, Schiff, and the whole DNC board. Again, nothing will come of it, but I sure would like to see the show.

  29. My prediction is that the Democrats gain a two seat majority in the House of Representatives and live to regret it. The following two years will be a non-stop battle between the old whites consisting of (((their funders))) old white feminists, and the baby boomer hippies v. the younger ascendant brown people coalition who will be agitating to gain control of the Democratic party. Meanwhile, Trump will galvanize the white / right and put such a hammering on the Democrats in 2020 that the old guard will fully retire making it exclusively the people of color party (not that is isn’t now). In 2024 whites will vote 65% + Republican.

    • Replies: @Detective Club
    , @ZeroDay
  30. AnonAnon says:

    Repubs keep both the House (narrowly) and Senate (decisively). I look forward to the liberal meltdown. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Rohrabacher (CA-48) keep their seats. I’m frankly irritated the Dem candidates for those two districts are out of state carpetbaggers – both have lived in CA less than a decade – that have zero political experience. I’d love to say Cox beats Newsom for CA Governor but I know that’s impossible. I hope Prop 6, repealing the gas tax, passes (a YES vote repeals the tax) but they got a bum deal on the title and massively outspent.

    • Replies: @Yngvar
  31. Spangel says:
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist

    The only swing district I’ve actually seen this election season is district 19 in ny. I don’t vote there but I went to do some leaf peeping. Drove all over the district, to the towns and the country and faso signs outnumbered Delgado significantly everywhere. But the polls show this as a swing with either candidate winning depending on the poll. It’s a rural district in upstate ny and hasn’t had a Democrat rep in decades. It voted trump by a moderate margin. In 2016, the polls put the dem house candidate ahead by 3 points. He lost by 9. 12 point undercounting of republican leaning votes. It sure looks like that is poised to happen again there unless all the Delgado voters are concentrated somewhere I didn’t see.

    I suspect the polls will be off in this election but I don’t know that the error will be systematic.

  32. @Wilkey

    Mia Love loses in Utah (thank God).

    I hope Barbara Comstock, Kevin Yoder and Rick Scott lose.

    Comstock, Yoder and Scott all push mass legal immigration and the multicultural mayhem that mass immigration brings.

    I hope Kris Kobach, Dave Brat and Marsha Blackburn win.

  33. L Woods says:
    @AnotherDad

    One after which everyone reading this blog will be dead.

  34. Zpaladin says:

    The worst case will happen: control if House will not be known for weeks because of recounts, challenges and runoffs in a few districts and a split House. Agony ensues and markets go crazy.
    GOP adds to Senate majority by 2. Ginsburg diet and exercise regime under additional scrutiny.

  35. @candid_observer

    I don’t think Trump–because of his ego–has done a good enough job about really pushing the focus to what’s at stake.

    They actual do not hate him because he’s Trump. Yeah, it annoys the heck out of them, but that’s not it. They hate him because he’s the first guy in a long time to act like America belongs to Americans. And that drives them nuts.

    “Dreamers are our future”. “Abolish ICE”.

    This election is about whether Americans get to have a nation at all. Or whether America is simply over … because Uncle Sammy didn’t get into Waspy Meadows Country Club or the Pale of Settlement, or something.

    Do white–or for that matter Asian or blacks or Mexican–voters going to the polls really understand what’s at stake. Whether their children will live in America … or in a shitty, contentious, police statey, dystopia?

    Has Donald Trump made that clear?

    • Agree: BB753, Desiderius
    • Replies: @AnonAnon
  36. GOP keeps same number of Senate seats, loses 41 house seats. The end is nigh.

    I hope Trump doesn’t go cuck after this.

  37. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    GOP keeps Senate: 95% (more likely than not to add at least one seat)
    GOP loses House: 57% (if not, only keeps majority by one-two seats)

    Safe prediction: No matter what happens the anti-White hysteria will continue unabated.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  38. gregor says:

    If the GOP gets killed in the House, are we screwed on immigration or what? Would there be any chance of getting a decent immigration bill through? I don’t see a lot of Dems voting for anything good. Maybe a few with some serious heat.

  39. For those who haven’t yet read it, James Howard Kunstler’s most recent offering is almost unbelievably good. I agree with everything he says about how imperative it is that the Democrats not be permitted to regain power.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/jim-kunstler-warns-weve-not-yet-seen-how-insane-society-can-become-under-duress

  40. AnonAnon says:

    PS to my other comment – I have to say it’s exciting to have a vote that actually matters at the national level for a change, seeing as I’m behind enemy lines in Democrat-dominated California. I came home to two political voicemails today, one from Trump urging me to vote Republican – I totally fangirled over that one – and one from Pence telling me to vote for Mimi Walters.

  41. 3g4me says:
    @Carnack

    @2 Carnack: “Ivanka Trump will be our first female President.”

    Heaven forfend. Don Jr. I might consider, but Javanka? Never.

    • Replies: @Carnack
  42. TTSSYF says:
    @Spangel

    I think they’re both going to be close, even though they shouldn’t be. I’m going out on a limb, though, and saying I think Scott and DeSantis are both going to win.

  43. @Buck Ransom

    Soon thereafter: Ruth Bader Ginsburg will get hit by a bus.

  44. Regret says:

    Blue Drizzle- Democrats gain a threadbare House majority, Republicans hold Senat.

  45. I’m a science fiction writer, of course I’ll make a prediction:

    Republicans gain seats in both House and Senate.

  46. AnonAnon says:
    @AnotherDad

    Has Donald Trump made that clear?

    He doesn’t have to, the left does it for him.

  47. @Wilkey

    GOP holds the House just barely. They pick up 6 (yes, S-I-X) seats in the seat, plus or minus one.

    Wilkey, pass that doobie on over here, let me take a hit, cause i sure like the sound of that.

    • Replies: @Lot
  48. Lot says:
    @Wilkey

    The sweetest GOP defeat will be Amnesty-Kevin Yoder.

    I think the Senate will remain GOP 51 and the Dems will win about 27 House seats.

    GOP wins GA Gov. Florida is very hard to predict but I’ll go with GOP Gov-Dem Senate.

    In Texas Cruz wins by 1 or 2 points.

  49. Lot says:
    @Luke Lea

    I am keeping my bets conservative this time, betting about 6-1 that the GOP will not pick up house seats, as well as a DemHouseGOPSenate bet that was 50/50, but is now up to about 60/40.

    For the most part I think the GOP candidates are overpriced in individual races. The comments on predictit are very GOP leaning.

  50. istevefan says:
    @PhysicistDave

    The GOP picks up Missouri and North Dakota and holds on to Arizona and Nevada (i.e., +2).

    I think MO is tight. Trump showed up here last Thursday for a rally, and will show up later tonight for another one. That’s two trips in 5 days. Maybe he just likes the state, or maybe internal polling is telling them the race is too tight. I am sure there are plenty of other races where Trump could be spending his time.

    Frankly I am surprised. I figured Claire was gone two years ago when Trump carried the state by 500K votes. I figured Hawley would be doing to Claire what the guy in ND is doing to Heidi. But apparently that is not the case.

    • Replies: @Bart
  51. Lot says:
    @AnotherDad

    Woah there Cheech, doobies are so 20th Century.

    2018 is all about THC vaping and “edibles” with more shiny elaborate packaging and wrapping than a $50 box of Godiva chocolates.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  52. Dtbb says:
    @Spangel

    I am not feeling warm and fuzzy. I pray I am mistaken.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  53. Obama has certainly gotten himself all worked up about tomorrow. He has yelled himself Horse.

  54. @PhysicistDave

    Dave, I think you’ve led us off with the most likely scenario.

    I’m skeptical of the Democrats really moving the House as much as many folks predict. The House swung wildly in 2006, deepened D with Obama and then swung back in Obama’s first midterm. But it’s overall pattern the past generation has been a small R majority–more stable than historically because of computational redistricting. The Democrats will pick up some seats, but I doubt it will be a huge “wave”.

    In the Senate, it seems likely the Republicans can pick up a few seats–just a huge missed opportunity given the map that’s up for grabs this year.

    But … i confess my “sense” is all 50,000 ft level. I haven’t been reading all the play by play, polls and forecasts.

  55. Corvinus says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    “Corvinus had better be careful. Nate Silver’s crow diet is growing to truly gluttonous proportions.”

    I do not take much stock in Nate Silver or the Democratic and Republican “expert” pollsters, past or present.

    I doubt there will be a blue wave.

    I prefer to watch election results in real time.

  56. Acilius says: • Website

    OK, I’ll bite. The only Senate seats to shift party control will be North Dakota, Arizona, and Nevada, leaving Republicans with a nominal 51-50 majority. The Democrats will make a net gain of about 30 seats in the House. No substantive legislation will pass Congress for the rest of Trump’s first term, and Ginsburg’s successor is likelier to be Hardiman or Ryan than Barrett or Pryor.

  57. @anon215

    ‘I think that Hwyte people will continue to pretend they’re all progressive and shit but when they’re all alone in that voting booth……”

    Even more importantly, I hope a lot of nominal ‘progressives’ will turn out to be so overcome with enthusiasm for ‘hate whitey’ and all the rest of it that they’ll vote with their butts and stay home.

    I’m getting the same feeling I got before 2016. A fear that the pundits will turn out to be right, but a desperate hope…

  58. @Prof. Woland

    Maxine Waters will run through the halls of Congress in a straight-jacket with men with butterfly nets in pursuit. That spectacle should be fun to watch for two years.

  59. The real election is 2020.

    Not just president. Look at the senate. See whose terms are up in the senate in 2020?

    Democrats are two years early on their “Blue Wave” talk. Can’t help themselves.

    Trump really wasted his 1st two years in office…

  60. @Carnack

    All Hail the Goddess-Empress!

  61. @Anonymous

    ‘Safe prediction: No matter what happens the anti-White hysteria will continue unabated.’

    Sure — but from the media. The question is to what extent will that continue to represent/shape what the actual country thinks.

    I’m sure the media will be squealing shrilly for the next decade. What matters is will anybody be listening?

  62. istevefan says:

    I don’t know how the election will go. I think we keep the Senate from the simple fact the democrats have more seats to defend this cycle. I would like to think we will keep the House, but we did get screwed by that court ruling earlier this year forcing PA to re-district. That will end up handing a couple seats to the democrats based upon a judicial whim.

    We have been subjected to major psy-ops with polling and selective coverage of the news. But whatever happens I hope the GOP base takes note that immigration is the number one issue. And not just illegal immigration, but immigration. I am worried that if we win tomorrow everyone forgets about this. But take note of the following:

    1) GA is actually in play because the white share of the population has gone 71 percent in 1990 to about 55 percent today.

    2) FL is actually a nail biter too because of demographics

    3) NV is a nail biter too because of demographics

    4) CO looks to be going solid blue

    Too many states that should be ours are being contested. Meanwhile democrats are snug in CA, NY and other large states. True, we made headway in rust belt of the Great Lakes. So let’s hope that trend continues. But it definitely seems to be the republicans who are having to fight harder on our home turf. And it is all because of immigration, legal and illegal, over the years.

    So whatever happens tomorrow, the GOP base has to hold their leaders’ feet to the fire on the issue of immigration. I just hope if we win, we don’t forget that and become complacent again.

  63. Anon[419] • Disclaimer says:

    The usual Democratic fanatics will show up, but I think there will be a suppressed turnout of blacks and Latinos, because they always have a depressed turnout that irritates their white and Jewish Democratic party masters. Meanwhile, the Republicans are extremely motivated and turning out in huge numbers. Because midterms usually have a low turnout anyway, it’s easier to flip seats in unusual directions if one party has a massive turnout. I’m calling a Republican blowout and much Democratic anguish and nailbiting.

    The polls are fake, of course. They called it wrong for 2016, and the reason they did is that the pollsters still want to be paid by the Democrats. Pollsters not operating from inside the parties themselves are liable to fake numbers just to keep clients, and their results have no relevance to real life.

  64. Whoever wins,

    Our foreign wars will continue,

    Immigration numbers will not significantly change,

    Our trade imbalance will continue,

    Millions of unemployed Americans who stopped being counted years ago will remain unemployed,

    And my state will continue inching toward bankruptcy.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    , @PhysicistDave
  65. @Barnard

    There has been a major push nationally to take out Steve King in Iowa…

    Why?

    • Replies: @Barnard
  66. vinteuil says: • Website
    @PhysicistDave

    I’ll be doing my part in Missouri. McCaskill has got to go.

  67. istevefan says:
    @Lot

    The sweetest GOP defeat will be Amnesty-Kevin Yoder.

    That cuck is now running ads on the Rush radio show here in the Kansas City area appealing to pro-life voters. He says they have to vote for him because he is the only pro-lifer in the race. I imagine he is not using this line on his base of Indian IT workers.

    OT – Something occurred to me while watching Trump and Pence at a rally. If we lose the House, those two can never, ever be together again. The Speaker of the House is only 2nd in line after the VP should something happen to the President. I would not put it past the loony left to decapitate our top two leadership slots which would allow Pelosi to become President. As a precaution Pence can’t go to rallies with Trump if they win the House.

  68. Cherub says:

    The only thing I can be sure of is that I will follow election day protocol: Start by putting a half bottle of the shittiest whiskey I can find down by 3pm. Have at least four monitors open displaying only the most complicated and esoteric statistical and update analysis I can find, only so I can pretend to be a desk trader at a prop firm for a day. Get annoyed and irritated of it all by 6:30 and turn everything off, telling myself I’ll just wake up and check how my team did. My ADD will kick in no longer than an hour later and I’ll pop an Adderall and resume the grind, reminding myself that my election analysis, with all of the data that I don’t understand flowing before my eyes, gives me a leg up on the wonks. Stay up late, and no matter the outcome, be annoyed that some particular seat didn’t flow our way.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
  69. GOP keeps the House, and makes gains in the Senate. Lots of vote fraud as the Ds try out their new tricks in preparation for 2020. No TV for me tomorrow night.

  70. Sean c says:

    Republicans gain 5 Senate seats and hold the House

  71. vinteuil says: • Website
    @FKA Max

    Additional resources:

    Enough with your incessant spamming. If you’ve got a point, make it in your own words. And as few as possible.

    • Agree: Bubba
  72. Trump will be the loser.

    Nothing he wants to do (or says he wants to do) is possible without a rep house and senate.

    Specifics of how many dems get elected, or which specific people, aren’t relevant, especially since all 2020 people are safe and/or elsewhere.

    Its a real shame Trump wasted so much time and effort and political capital on that tax break…especially since he got nothing in return from Republicans for pushing it, and probably hurt himself greatly. It turned out to be nothing more than Paul “i had a black girlfriend in college” Ryan’s parting gift to his future lobbyist employers.

    The only good news is that the next 2 years should provide lots of entertaining fodder for Steve Sailer to comment on.

  73. Cherub says:

    Where do you live Sailer? Or where is this site hosted that it is nearly 16 hours ahead of my timezone? Quite confusing reading the comments when I first popped into the thread.

    • Replies: @Dtbb
  74. istevefan says:

    With all the early voting I am wondering if the democrats were given too much notice of which races they needed to shore up. They are the masters of manufacturing votes. And I am not saying that as a partisan. As the party of the large urban area, democrats are in the unique position to manufacture votes without causing too much suspicion. They have the political machinery in place and the huge population areas necessary to manufacture a few thousand votes without causing too much alarm.

    I can’t remember the exact election, I think it was 2004. In that cycle someone leaked a democrat memo from BEFORE the election which claimed voter disenfranchisement and other issues relating to minority voters. It was basically their blueprint for what to tell the media if a race was not going their way. I imagine there are similar such schemes nationwide waiting to be unveiled tomorrow. November 6 is going to be chaotic. The left won’t accept anything but a clear win. They are still fighting the results of 2016. If they lose both the House and Senate tomorrow they won’t accept it.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
  75. vinteuil says: • Website
    @Cherub

    Start by putting a half bottle of the shittiest whiskey I can find down by 3pm. Have at least four monitors open displaying only the most complicated and esoteric statistical and update analysis I can find, only so I can pretend to be a desk trader at a prop firm for a day. Get annoyed and irritated of it all by 6:30 and turn everything off…

    An excellent plan. Unfortunately, at 3pm tomorrow I must be instructing the kiddies on St. Thomas’ views on natural law, or something of that sort.

    I won’t be able to start downing the booze until 5pm, at the earliest.

  76. Anonymous[159] • Disclaimer says:

    Gillum in Fla. will be the media hero of the night. I can’t understand his ascent, OTOH, he does seem like a throwback to the synthetic liberal healer type re-popularized by John Edwards and Deval Patrick a decade ago. Journalists just want to gay-marry this guy. If he wins of course he will be tipped for 2020 (fancy blacks only have to win the statewide office, it matters not what they do with it). It just occurred to me Florida’s lt. gov might then be of interest but I can’t be bothered to look it up. Abrams in Ga. is a hype vehicle and won’t win.

    Republican base are not going to have much to be happy about in 24 hrs. Maybe that McCaskill lost, but the media is going to be in a month-long lovefest w/ Pelosi, Maxine Waters, and Adam Schiff doing TV rounds. The swing will be dramatic enough that the House GOP is going to have problems coming back in 2 years. In a just world Paul Ryan would also be arraigned for sexually harassing a college wrestling team he coached or something heinously career-ending of that nature.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  77. MikeCLT says:

    Red states get redder and blue states get bluer.

  78. Mr. Blank says:

    I’m only familiar enough with two states — Georgia and Florida — to offer an educated guess. My thoughts:

    GOP will win the Georgia governorship easily, and Democrats will be “surprised” (but not really) by how well the GOP candidate does. I just can’t see Georgia voting in a black woman governor, least of all one like Stacey Abrams. I know, I know, Georgia’s demographics have supposedly changed, but I don’t think they’ve changed that much…yet.

    Governor’s race in Florida’s gonna be a nail-biter. Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, is basically copying the Obama playbook note for note. Since that playbook worked pretty well for Obama in Florida, it might work for Gillum. But I don’t know. Florida politics, like everything else about Florida, are really weird and don’t map well to the rest of the country, as Jeb! discovered in 2016. Whoever wins this will probably win because of some weird, Florida-specific reason.

    I don’t know who will win the Florida Senate race, but unlike the governor’s race, I don’t think it will be that close. Bill Nelson and Rick Scott are both boring white guys, and Nelson is the incumbent. Nelson basically promises to deliver more of the same if he gets elected; Scott says he’ll deliver something different. So either voters are satisfied with one boring white guy or they’d prefer a different boring white guy. Either way, I think this one will get called early.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
  79. notanon says:

    prediction: Trump’s Luck (aka Melania’s spells) -> surprisingly good results due to lower than normal black and hispanic turnout

    most interesting metric to watch: suburban soccer moms

  80. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Buck Ransom

    Sotomayor may have problems before Ginsberg, apparently the wise LaTina is very unhealthy and her father died very early.

  81. istevefan says:

    Here is an interesting tweet from 538. This obviously reinforces the need for the GOP base to laser-focus on immigration.

    • Replies: @Lot
  82. Bubba says:
    @Dtbb

    Likewise – I have a bad feeling that DeSantis and Scott will lose. There is no enthusiasm for either one and neither campaigned properly. If Gillium wins, he’ll have to resign in another year or two because of his ongoing FBI investigations & corruption issues.

    FYI, Mayor Gilliam’s Tallahassee is a total dump of a chocolate city and run like the I-10 cities of New Orleans and Mobile – very poorly with complete indifference to corruption. But he has 100% support of black voters in Florida and they have been absolutely packing the early voting polls.

    • Replies: @Dtbb
  83. FKA Max says:
    @FKA Max


    Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites

    The range of outcomes is wide and includes the GOP holding on.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

    Here’s some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obama’s odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast — much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as I’m annoyingly obligated to point out — lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states.

  84. Bart says:
    @istevefan

    Hawley is a terrible candidate who doesn’t want to bother showing up at GOP functions and meeting voters. He’ll probably win anyway but this shouldn’t have been close.

    For that matter IN shouldn’t have been close either. My goodness the GOP nominated some stinkers this year.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  85. That Guy says:

    Dems win house by 2-3 seats. Repubs maintain Senate majority 53-47. Dems take a lot of governorships. Beto and Abrams lose by healthy margins. Gillum wins narrowly

  86. Barnard says:
    @Jim Don Bob

    His open and enthusiastic support of Viktor Orban, Faith Goldy, the Austrian Freedom party and other nationalists.

    • Replies: @Fidelios Automata
  87. @FKA Max

    Assuming Dems win the house- if dems perceive its to their advantage to go for impeachment, they will impeach. If impeachment looks negative for the dems, Trump will goad them into it. Either way they’ll try impeachment.

  88. Dtbb says:
    @Cherub

    Steve is in Ca. Site uses GMT. 16 hours either way doesn’t sound possible?

  89. Bubba says:
    @Anonymous

    In a just world Paul Ryan would also be arraigned for sexually harassing a college wrestling team he coached or something heinously career-ending of that nature.

    I hope Trump can get a law passed prohibiting Ryan and any other ex-Congressional P.O.S. from having contact or advising any company doing business with any U.S. government/military contract.

    Then Ryan should be tarred and feathered for fun.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  90. @Art Deco

    They’ve both been showing some signs lately of following the Senator from South Carolina into the sunny uplands of not paying attention to what globohomocorp thinks.

  91. @Tim

    My guess is they’ll buck the trend. The D Achilles heel is Blacks not turning out. They’ll turn out for their own.

  92. House: Ds 225; Rs 210
    Senate: Ds 48, Rs 52

  93. Dtbb says:
    @Bubba

    What is it with state capitals? Did blacks move to them years ago to be closer (and therefore receive them quicker) to their welfare checks? It seems all state capitals have a higher percentage of black population than the rest of the respective states.

  94. @Buzz Mohawk

    The first task if one wishes to get out of a hole is to stop digging.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  95. Bubba says:
    @Bart

    You ain’t kidding – DeSantis and Scott have been lackluster at best. Each wasted millions on milquetoast RINO consultants hired for their campaigns. DeSantis and Scott needed a President Trump/Lee Atwater in-your-face campaign manager and it would have been an early night for each of them tomorrow. Instead, I think it will be an early night for Gillum and Nelson.

    • Replies: @Bart
  96. @Barnard

    I was born and raised in King’s district, and I’ve been seeing anti-King stuff from some of my FB friends who still live there that’s been quite unexpected. He really seems to have pissed off a lot of people recently.

    Are you living there now? Is this the case?

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    , @Barnard
  97. Rauner will be gone in Illinois.

  98. Senate is safe for the Republicans.
    They hold on to the House just barely leading to more media tantrums, social media deplatforming, and Antifa riots.

  99. @Barnard

    Steve King for President!

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  100. @Bubba

    He lost the 2012 election in that VP debate. Krauthammer et.al. we’re completely nonplussed, as was I. After it turned out to be brutally effective I started researching game.

    Biden AMOGged him. You can see it in the body language of the moderator (sic). Ryan’s never been the same since. That’s when Trump sensed his opening.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  101. @The Last Real Calvinist

    What specifically is he alleged to have done?

  102. It’s not a prediction, not even a hope, just a prayer: We don’t just get to see Rachel Madow cry late Tuesday night, we get to see her commit some entertaining form of on-air suicide.

  103. Bubba says:
    @Desiderius

    I am praying that you are right.

  104. Bart says:
    @Desiderius

    King endorsed Faith Goldy for mayor of Toronto and had the gall to ask for the Polish perspective on the Holocaust on the Jews’ dime. This prompted Steve Stivers to throw a bitchfit and cut him off.

    Stivers by the way occupies an extremely gerrymandered seat in which his 70% Clinton town is joined with swaths of farmland giving him a safe seat.

  105. @Desiderius

    Racism, White supremacy, etc., which he’s always been accused of, but it seems to have ramped up this time around to a level at which he’s shedding the support of people I know who would otherwise vote R.

    One recent incident is he went on a trip to Europe and met representatives of the Austria Freedom Party, which is accused of having neo-Nazi ties.

  106. Ed says:
    @PhysicistDave

    Reasonable I hope they get <23 though.

    I think Gillum & Nelson lose tomorrow as well.

    • Replies: @Lot
  107. @Lot

    How much money did you put on your predictions?

    • Replies: @Lot
  108. @Corvinus

    For an operative, you are exceptionally good.

    • Disagree: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    , @Desiderius
  109. @The Last Real Calvinist

    The half-witted former semi-pro baseball player running against him is typical Democrat dishonesty – I am one of you, but hey, I am selling you out as fast as possible. Send me to Washington and I’ll turn you into serfs faster than you can say “Corvinus.”

  110. Bart says:
    @Bubba

    Trump fucked the party over by pushing DeSantis. Putnam wasn’t perfect but he’d be winning easily right now.

    • Replies: @Bubba
    , @TTSSYF
  111. Bubba says:
    @Dtbb

    Good job noticing that – and Baton Rouge (capital of LA) is also on I-10 ! Up in NY it is the same thing with Albany. PA- Harrisburg, NJ – Trenton, etc… You’re right and I guess it the “Gibsmedat” mentality with politicos buying votes.

    • Replies: @Lot
  112. Lot says:
    @istevefan

    That map is absurd. If only non-whites voted it would 435-0, or maybe 5 or so GOP South Florida districts if white Cubans are “nonwhites.”

    All I can think of is the red districts don’t have any Democrat running.

  113. newrouter says:

    Watching MAGA rallies for the last 2 weeks Trump has his base energized. The cat ladies not so much. Sputtering baracky in an empty hs gym doesn’t cut it. Trumpslide 2018!!

  114. Lot says:
    @Ed

    Centrist Obama-voting Floridians who think Gillum will be bad on taxes, crime, and property values will salve their guilt by voting for Nelson.

    Team Zion DeSantis is going to crush it with elderly Jews against the two BDS democrats. They tried to run away from it before running statewide, but nobody wants fair weather friends like that.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  115. istevefan says:

    Live Stream of Trump’s final rally in Missouri. Hannity and Rush are joining him.

    • Replies: @istevefan
  116. Lot says:
    @Bubba

    Capital of LA?

    Too bad there are no angles with mountains behind it.

    Here’s downtown LA with City Hall in the lower right.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Bubba
    , @AnotherDad
  117. Bubba says:
    @Desiderius

    That is interesting – I have to look into that.

    And in my opinion, Ryan was a confused choirboy in a shrewd & scheming Congress ruled by the likes of Schumer & Feinstein. Ryan was in way over his head. Good riddance to that naive, sanctimonious and backstabbing twit.

  118. Lot says:
    @Lot

    OK, this one has City Hall and mountains.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  119. Lot says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    About $700 at risk if I am wrong on everything. I will only make $300 or so since I am mostly betting on favorites.

  120. Arclight says:

    RCP only has the GOP picking up 2 seats in the Senate, but Senate races tend to all break the same way, so I think it’s possibly they actually get 4-5 additional seats.

    I’ve been saying for awhile that I think the Dems take the House with less than a 10 seat majority, but on the other hand, a huge surge in early voting has me a bit less certain about this.

    I think Gillum wins Florida and that is bad news for 2020.

    • Replies: @Mr. Blank
  121. Bubba says:
    @Lot

    LOL! I think the hispanics are driving out the blacks in that LA along that part of I-10 and lowering the murder rate.

    Unfortunately the I-10 Baton Rouge, LA black population % keeps increasing along with the crime and murder rates. It’s a beautiful city, but I find it to be a bit rough and dangerous.

    • Replies: @Lot
  122. Bubba says:
    @Lot

    Great picture! I love the weather in LA, but too bad the taxes make the cost of living there out of my price range.

  123. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    The half-witted former semi-pro baseball player running against him is typical Democrat dishonesty – I am one of you, but hey, I am selling you out as fast as possible. Send me to Washington and I’ll turn you into serfs faster than you can say “Corvinus.”

    He’s got a nice Dutch name, though — Scholten — which will reassure some less-vigilant voters in far NW Iowa.

  124. I don’t want to predict because I don’t want to jinx it. But I’ll tell you what would be a hoot to see: the Republicans with a 218-217 majority. The next two years in the House would be quite entertaining.

  125. @Lot

    Woah there Cheech, doobies are so 20th Century.

    That’s ok, i’m pretty much a 20th century kind of guy. It was better than what we have now–except for iSteve. Though I have to admit, it went downhill after the debacle in 1914 and there were some unfortunate events.

    • Replies: @Lot
  126. @PhysicistDave

    Yeah, a couple-ish Senate seats sounds about right, there’s almost zero chance the Dems outright win the Senate, and those are the closest (Montana and Indiana I’d say are straight tossups), but I think the msm is way overestimating the “blue wave” in the midwest/”flyover country.” I’d put the R’s narrowly holding on, it’ll be close either way, but the path for the dems if they do win would actually be large gains in CA/NY/NJ, not the seats in Iowa/Minnesota/Kansas etc that the pundits favor.

    The GOP though is going to lose some in 2020, both the House and Senate, relative to whatever they get in 2018.

  127. Bubba says:
    @Bart

    Yes, Putnam was a better GOP candidate and definitely knows Florida politics better than DeSantis. You’re right, he isn’t perfect, but he is a tough campaigner and isn’t afraid to get into a brawl with his opponents (figuratively). DeSantis was a huge disappointment.

    • Replies: @Mr. Blank
  128. Mr. Blank says:
    @Arclight

    If Gillum wins he’ll be the hero of the night, and he’ll instantly vault to the front of the 2020 Democrat field. That said, I don’t see him going anywhere if he wins. He’ll face a solidly Republican state legislature, which will limit what he can accomplish, and to put it bluntly, he’s no Obama. He has neither Obama’s discipline nor his intelligence.

    Gillum’s more likely to end up being another in the long line of Great Black Hope candidates who are blinded by the initial surge of worshipful, nigh-idolatrous press coverage and then piss it all away with their legal/ethical lapses.

  129. Bubba says:
    @Lot

    Team Zion DeSantis is going to crush it with elderly Jews against the two BDS democrats.

    I don’t know about that Lot, but I sincerely hope you are right. In my experience, 90%+ of elderly Jews (not necessarily in the Hasidic community) always vote Democrat.

  130. @Desiderius

    Don’t get me wrong; I’m voting all R down the line tomorrow. But think about this for a moment:

    The R party has controlled both houses of Congress and the White House going on two years now. What, exactly, among those things I mentioned, has changed?

    Those holes have kept on getting deeper. The Ds will just dig faster if they get the power.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Desiderius
    , @notanon
  131. Lot says:
    @Bubba

    I-10 through Los Angeles is one long drive: from Santa Monica to Coachella is 145 miles and urban or suburban the entire way. Then hundreds of miles of almost empty desert.

  132. Lot says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Migration from the middle east and africa has substantially fallen under Trump.

    Interior enforcement is also up under Trump. The actual numbers are not huge, but it encourages self deportation far beyond the number of formal deportations.

  133. Len says:

    Certainly hope R’s keep the House. I need my Tax Cut 2.0!

  134. Barnard says:
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    I live in a neighboring area. You most likely saw the Sioux City Journal editorial against King. They are going for a King is an embarassment we don’t want people to think we are backwards hicks angle like was used against Roy Moore. From what I hear your Reformed Church friends are really hammering home the pro immigration rhetoric too. I think it is working long term. He seems like he is active in the district and meets with voters and listens to their concerns. I think he will win but is losing ground.

  135. Lot says:
    @AnotherDad

    I agree, in every important way the peak of Western Civilization was 1913.

  136. Carnack says:
    @3g4me

    Heaven forfend. Don Jr. I might consider, but Javanka? Never.

    Oh, stop! I love Ivanka.

    She is the perfect woman, and would make the perfect first female President.

    She’s so cute, I just want to pick her up, and carry her wherever she’d like to go, all day!

    I fantasize sitting with her in the Oval Office after midnight, filing things for her, she’d say funny things, and we’d laugh and laugh.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Lot
  137. @Lot

    C’mon Lot, you know he’s talking about Louisianna. Showing us pictures of Mexico’s 2nd city is a lame joke.

  138. @Buzz Mohawk

    What, exactly, among those things I mentioned, has changed?

    Non-Trump Rs seeing the true character/enmity of the forces arrayed against them.

    Mueller has had Trump by the short hairs. If the congressional committees stay onside this week, that may change.

  139. @Barnard

    Sioux City’s strengths have to do with how well they’ve preserved the character of 50′s America.

    But 50′s America became 60′s America. Our hope lies with the post-progressives, not the high functioning Amish.

  140. istevefan says:
    @istevefan

    I just finished watching Trump’s third and final rally of the day. The energy he brings to these rallies is unreal. The main reaction I have right now is how much I hate Paul Ryan and the other GOP weaklings who pissed away a good part of Trump’s first two years.

    If we lose tomorrow the agenda is stalled. And it’s 100 percent on those cucks who sabotaged him all the way. Even Romney got in another jab today after Trump endorsed him, and he is secure in the fact he will win tomorrow. Just think what we could have done if the GOP had been acting over the last two years like some of them have post-Kavanaugh.

    Hopefully we win tomorrow and get the chance to see it. A win tomorrow coupled with some guys like Graham, Grassley and Mitch growing some balls might be fun to watch.

    • Replies: @Bart
  141. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Carnack

    Oh, stop! I love Ivanka.

    She is the perfect woman, and would make the perfect first female President.

    She’s so cute, I just want to pick her up, and carry her wherever she’d like to go, all day!

    I fantasize sitting with her in the Oval Office after midnight, filing things for her, she’d say funny things, and we’d laugh and laugh.

    You are on powerful hallucinogens.

    Very powerful hallucinogens.

  142. ZeroDay says:
    @Prof. Woland

    Agree here. The young progressive wing of the Democratic party will demand radical action in the House. This will likely force them into doing something stupid like impeachment, otherwise there is suppressed or fractured Dem turnout in 2020. If the last two years are any benchmark, Trump will troll them for the next two.

    It is unlikely that much would be achieved in the next two years anyway. Give another two years for the GloboCorp Repubs to retire. Bet on real transformation occurring in the second term via legislation, generational replacement in Repubs, and minority takeover of Dems.

    Aside from surprise sweep in both chambers, may be best situation for Trump. Let the Dems be scapegoats for 2020.

  143. @Barnard

    Thanks for the reply; that fits with what I’ve seen.

  144. I am 100% certain of one thing only:

    The big money donors will win this election, and the next and the next and the next …

    The rest of us will lose.

  145. Bart says:
    @istevefan

    Trump has nobody to blame for these past two years of failure but himself. He alienated potential voters by constantly acting like a prole and a lunatic on Twitter, while he ignored the legislative process and got rolled time and again.

  146. Lot says:
    @Carnack

    Haha I wouldn’t go so far, but she really lit up the camara in the clip from today I saw.

  147. Nsilver says:

    I’ve been tracking polling number and early voting numbers for the past week. The numbers are breaking nicely for Republicans.

    Senate: Republicans will gain seats to establish a majority of 54-58 seats. Republicans will dominate the Senate for the next 30 years due to the fact that Democrats are concentrating themselves in 10-12 coastal states. I am in my 50′s and do not expect ever to see the Democrats hold the Senate again.

    House: Biases pollsters and press will eat crow. Republicans hold the house with 225R-210D, plus or minus 3. The only thing that will change this is massive voter fraud by the Dems, which is always possible.

    Governors: Always harder to call. Republicans end up with 28-30 wins. Kemp wins by 5-7 points in Georgia. Liberals scream racism. Shock.

  148. This election is a referendum on Trump.
    Has the general opinion of Trump moved in the positive or negative direction since 2016?
    I think it is clearly in the positive direction.
    Almost everyone not overcome with Trump Derangement Syndrome has moved in the positive direction. Where are all the wars and genocides? No matter what one thought of him as a real estate mogul and reality TV star, he seems to very often try to maintain a presidential tone in official performances, no matter what he says in tweets or political speeches, and the only people who really pay attention to such things are partisans and provocateurs. And in any case, even when he evokes negativity, he typically counterbalances it with something positive. By contrast, his opponents almost entirely stick with the negative.
    I predict the “shout ‘racist’ even louder‘ strategy is going to go down to defeat, though what lessons anyone learns from this is an open question.

    R’s hold the House.

  149. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Fidelios Automata

    This. Guy has been out front the whole way, not as a concession to get votes but as one of us. Remember him saying it’s okay to be white to a telejournalists?*
    *My memory is wrong, he didn’t say it in those words, but he has talked about anti-white sentiment in media.

  150. @Dtbb

    It seems all state capitals have a higher percentage of black population than the rest of the respective states.

    When blacks move someplace, sane non-blacks move elsewhere, even if that place is very desirable. It ain’t worth dyin’ fer.

  151. Lagertha says:

    Republicans keep the House & Senate. Americans just are not buyin’ Socialism yet, (and all the creepy stuff that that entails; and death; which it leads to: Venezuela/Imperial Russia/China purge and “re-education” gulags/Viet Nam) just yet…most Americans, are still confused over: socialism/communism/social democracies/Cuba (still confusing for most)/Bolsheviks/Maoists/Khmer Rouge….hmmm? am I missing some murderous, leftist nation’s socialist movement?

    Governors will be full-on Scooby-Doo! hahaa! – we will wake up Wednesday to find out.

    Found out from Latinos, recently…and weirdly, some Muslims, and some others…many, many Southerners, that Beto, and Southern Democrats were just “bad for taxes and their childrens’ prosperity & future” – yah!…weird, even those terms these men (mostly) used! I was like, nod, nod, concern-troll…wanted to kiss them on the cheek!, hahaaa. I just knew it! As soon as immigrants, even recent ones, establish businesses, get motivated, they turn into Republicans! Anyone who goes thru a lot and sacrifices a lot, is still going to think about his own family and needs first.

    Ok, ok, several weeks ago, I said that Latino business owners in Texas are not necessarily Democrats…so, I stick by my instincts. What really threw me, was Muslims in the Southland! and Northeast! – they like Trump! I almost fell off a seat again!

  152. Mr. Blank says:
    @Bubba

    Color me skeptical that Putnam would have done better than DeSantis. Putnam had his own issues — the flip side to his deep experience was that a lot of voters perceived him as a slimy establishment insider. (I know because I spend a large part of my day dealing with such people.)

    I think the larger problem is that the Florida GOP was caught off guard by Gillum. They were expecting to run a campaign against another vaguely centrist white Democrat. They weren’t expecting to have to campaign against an Obama-style Black Jesus candidate, because that sort of thing just doesn’t happen in Florida politics. They don’t really know how to handle Gillum, and it shows.

    Gillum’s story so far has kind of been mini-mirror image of Trump’s: He was written off by his own party, only to come from behind and win. Now he’s throwing a monkey wrench into the plans of the other party, which has no idea what to do with an opponent like him. I’m dreading having to deal with my Gillum-besotted coworkers tomorrow.

    I take solace in the fact that, as I said in an earlier post, I think winning a governorship is pretty much the ceiling of Gillum’s political potential. No way is the guy ready for the big leagues. I’d give him 50-50 odds of even managing to serve a full term.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  153. Anon[534] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ve got my fingers crossed that one of my relatives gets thrown out of office. He used to be a solid conservative, and was even in the military and all that; but after he married a scheming Jewish wife, she turned him into a liberal, and he’s been making an ass of himself in the media. He has no clue that he’s being a public idiot either, because he’s a bit of a social blockhead. Unfortunately, lack of self-awareness runs in that side of my family.

  154. Anon[534] • Disclaimer says:

    My prediction: Republican blowout, stock market climbs +1000 points in the next two days afterwards, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg drops dead of a stroke within the next two months.

    • LOL: TTSSYF
  155. @Carnack

    Inclined to agree. But poll accuracy is so dubious nowadays, it is hard to tell if they are undercounting GOP support by 2, 4 or even 6+ points.
    The “shy Nationalist” factor is likely to be more significant in places where there is tangible alarm about demographic change but higher social sanctions against dissent.
    One of the wild cards is whether the DEM base will be energized in areas where they don’t have Minority celebs on the ticket. GA, FL, PA, OH, MI & WI are the states to watch, esp to see if the Abrams, Gillum candidacies rally the coalition of the fringes.

  156. I’ve been poking around a bit for Steve King news updates, and it seems he really is substantially more interesting than the typical IA politician.

    Just this week he’s mentioned he’s hoping for two upcoming vacancies on the Supreme Court when Kagan and Sotomayor elope to Cuba together: LINK

    Also, the Weekly Standard has named him ‘America’s Most Deplorable Congressman’: LINK

    That Weekly Standard story mentions King’s assertion that Joaquin and Julian Castro, the latter mentioned here on iSteve more than once, IIRC, had to take Spanish lessons to qualify as ‘retroactive Hispanics’: LINK

    I’m starting to see why King is giving the Republican establishment the vapors.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Desiderius
  157. Tyrion 2 says:

    Early vote proportions are 42% R to 41% D. This is in between 2016 and 2014. As are early voter numbers. So R pick up in Senate and roughly maintain in House.

    Unsuprising given voter polarisation that the vote stays similar.

  158. @Dan Smith

    Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

    Bavarian comedian Karl Valentin in the 1920ies and 30ies used to say this quite often. Before him, Mark Twain, too (might well be, that Valentin knew this sentence because of Twain’s European popularity). But this thought is older than that, I guess. Any idea anybody?

  159. Anonym says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mr_JamesLandis/status/1059647067684069377/photo/1

    I have a good vibe about the election. Trump is definitely putting in the work with his rallies to push the voting levels over the edge. I think Kav really energized the base.

  160. @Buzz Mohawk

    Buzz Mohawk says:

    Whoever wins,

    Our foreign wars will continue,

    Immigration numbers will not significantly change, …

    Yes, single elections actually matter less than most people (especially politicians and journalists) think. The main exception is a President who gets us involved in a major war — obviously, Wilson, FDR, and Lincoln did change the course of US history.

    What actually does matter is the gradual change of public attitudes and perceptions, and elections can give signs of when and how that is happening. And, during the last several years, a slew of elections world-wide — Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro, Italy, Merkel’s ongoing electoral collapse, etc. — do show a a world-wide change of direction.

    No one is quite sure how it will turn out. Is it simply anti-immigrant/anti-foreigner animus and can that alone be a long-term basis for a new direction in modern history?

    One thing is clear: across the globe an awful lot of people are not real happy with the Western elites who have been running things since the end of WW II.

    • Agree: Tyrion 2
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    , @Olorin
  161. Yngvar says:
    @AnonAnon

    Prediction;
    Prop 6 goes through, gas tax repealed. Yeah!
    Lobby group sue state.
    Judge finds for plaintiff, spurious reasons:
    “Money is needed to expand marina habitat for endangered boat marina seals.”
    Lieutenant governor, the only one with standing, refuse to appeal.
    And that is that.

    It’s easier to prevent a tax than to repeal it.

  162. TTSSYF says:
    @istevefan

    That’s why, ideally, the Dem loss needs to be overwhelming; i.e., so that they’re forced to move past anger and bargaining and into depression, loneliness, and self-reflection (and I don’t care if they remain stuck on this stage). But I’m not banking on it — in fact, I think it’s going to be too close for comfort, but I am hopeful that there are still enough people out there who recognize that most Dems are nuts. The Kavanaugh debacle should have been enough to extinguish any glimmer of hope for Dems controlling either side of Congress.

    One of my colleagues mentioned to me yesterday that, for the first time ever, he voted a straight party ticket. He didn’t have to tell me which party, because he’s well-aware of where I stand politically. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he’s typical of a lot of independents and moderate Dems who are totally disgusted with what the Dems have become.

  163. TTSSYF says:
    @Mr. Blank

    I think Scott pulls it off. Not sure about DeSantis and agree that Gillum is working off the Obama playbook. Even by Florida standards, it’s amazing that the mayor of the state capitol can be shown to have accepted illegal gratuities while under investigation for corruption and still stands a reasonable chance of winning.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  164. TTSSYF says:
    @Dtbb

    Tallahassee has always had a problem with violent crime, mostly black. When I lived there years ago, there was a nearly weekly robbery of a convenience store with the clerk shot dead, along with some horrendous rapes with the victims killed or barely surviving after being beaten to a pulp.

    My then-boyfriend and I quit making canoe trips when twice we returned to find hundreds of blacks partying down by the river and they began hassling us, pushing our canoe with their feet as we tried to come ashore, cat-calling us, etc. It wouldn’t have taken much to flip that crowd into tearing us apart.

    • Replies: @Dtbb
  165. TTSSYF says:
    @Bart

    DeSantis should have chosen Putnam as his running mate.

  166. @Desiderius

    Desiderius wrote:

    Sen: 57
    House: 222

    (For Trump)

    To spell out how that actually is possible: aside from the likely GOP pickups in Missouri and North Dakota, the other states that are real possiblities are Florida, Indiana, West Vriginia, and Montana. And, a real optimist could dream about New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, and even the Housley/Smith race in Minnesota.

    The real uncertainty between your and my predictions is the Trump enthusiasm factor. The rallies are indeed huge, and the core Trumpians are energized. It’s hard to see how this cannot show up in the election.

    And yet… I’m old enough to remember how energized the McGovern folks were.

    So, I took a consevative guess. My own guess, by the way, is almost the same as the RealClearPolitics predictions, though I did not just blindly copy RCP’s results. For the House, I took RCP’s toss-ups, gave the Democrats all the current Dem seats among the toss-ups and the current GOP seats in blue states. That can’t be exactly right, of course, but I think it does give a good sense of the direction things are likely to move.

    Of course, the argument for your prediction is that if we had each taken the same approach in 2016 (I gave Trump a one-in-three chance on election eve 2016), you would have been right and I would have been wrong.

    And, a lot of voters certainly are being quiet about their support of Trump: my kid who is in college says that the Trump supporters on-campus basically whisper their support of Trump to each other (what do you call the “Trump radar” that lets them find each other?).

    So, maybe the enthuisastic Trump boosters will combine with the hidden Trump voters to prove the polls wrong again, just as in 2016.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  167. @The Last Real Calvinist

    Wonder if his district is too successful for that to play too well though.

  168. @PhysicistDave

    I was just being a devil’s (angel’s?) advocate since our sample lacked sufficient variance, and I like to be optimistic.

    Plus the voters who left me disappointed in ’12 are now at least ostensibly more on our side and Obama isn’t goosing turnout for the other so we’ll see. Traffic was lightish at my west side Cincinnati polling station (across the street from the 100% black public school) this morning.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  169. @PhysicistDave

    anti-immigrant/anti-foreigner animus

    How about pro-diversity, Justice Kennedy?

  170. @Desiderius

    I’m on the other side ofthe world, but my clock says it’s only 8:30am in the US. Who cares about your turnout?

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  171. Corvinus says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    “For an operative, you are exceptionally good.”

    I see that your conspiracy side is showing once again. Didn’t your therapist say that you should refrain from making wild generalizations? I understand you have difficulty listening to women, especially if they are trying to help you, but it is court mandated, so make the best of the situation.

  172. @TTSSYF

    This is the FBI we’re talking about. Anyone who’s not already voting Gillum knows what they’ve done to Flynn et. al. See American Hustle for where the zeitgeist is on the feds.

  173. @Chrisnonymous

    Polls opened at 6:30am. People with jobs vote before going to work if they anticipate lines after.

    • Replies: @Lot
  174. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    No, if he were good he’d make regular admissions against interest to be less obvious. As it is, he’s just a reasonably sharp lawyer perfunctorily arguing his client’s weak case.

  175. @PhysicistDave

    100% odds-on winner: continuity of government.

    State power, 1; human liberty and potential, 0.

  176. Lot says:
    @Desiderius

    I voted 3 weeks ago. There’s always a small chance I’ll die before election day, why risk it.

    • LOL: Romanian
    • Replies: @Desiderius
  177. Dtbb says:
    @TTSSYF

    Back in the mid 80′s me and a friend made monthly road trips to Tallahassee. What a great fun town. Southern charm and every dive had live music. The past is a different country.

  178. @Lot

    Small c conservatives like our routines.

  179. EdwardM says:
    @Dtbb

    Government jobs? That’s certainly true at the Federal level in Washington (and other regional cities with lots of Fed presence).

  180. I predict with 100% confidence that tomorrow morning human biodiversity will still be an important factor in explaining modern societies and sub-societies, and with enormous implications for social and political issues. When and whether the political system will ever come to grips with the reality of HBD, I cannot say. Not tomorrow morning.

  181. notanon says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The R party has controlled both houses of Congress and the White House going on two years now. What, exactly, among those things I mentioned, has changed?

    GOPe is as bad as the Dems (i’d say they are actually worse as they betray their voters for money whereas the Dems are openly hostile to those voters) so what needs to happen is Trumpists taking over and replacing GOPe.

    the main thing that has changed over the last two years is a slight shift in the balance of power between Trumpists and GOPe – it’s nowhere near enough yet but if the mid-terms BTFOs GOPe’s attempt to lose the house so Trump could be impeached then i think a lot of GOPe will surrender and get with the program.

  182. MarcB. says:

    In the past Democrats benefited by having Independents and Republicans vote for their entrenched, familiar candidates over a straight R ticket, but the media has so closely tied Trump to Republican congressmen and senators that it will hinder this pattern. President Trump’s popularity is up by 5% over 2016 levels, and the economy has improved tangibly. The media has encouraged a strong Republican and Trump voter turnout by declaring a Democrat takeover a fait compli for the last six months.

  183. Olorin says:

    My prediction is that we will learn a few things about “independent” voters.

    My something-besides-prediction is that the GOP has been praying they’ll lose the House, so they can pretend it’s the Dems doing all the stonewalling.

  184. Olorin says:
    @PhysicistDave

    One thing is clear: across the globe an awful lot of people are not real happy with the Western elites who have been running things since the end of WW II.

    Are you suggesting that they are happy with the Eastern and Middle Eastern and African and other elites?

    Other elites have had plenty of power, control, and prosperity. And pretty much the whole world has been hanging on white men’s necks for the past century where innovation, warrior energy, and altruistic donation of wages (and jobs, and neighborhoods, and schools…) is concerned. Without us, China would still be a shithole, though admittedly of a different sort than, say, certain Middle Eastern nations and settlements were made thanks to Reagan and his Neocons.

    I mean, it seems you’re buying pretty heavily into the Jewish idea that it’s “WASP”s who are guilty for everything that’s wrong because whatever whatever.

    That soon starts to whiff heavily of Old Testament ritual sacrifice to ensure future prosperity.

    Which I do in fact see as one element of the scourging and flogging of white males, and our widespread fixion onto the cross of whiteness and privilege, with the accompanying laughter and ridicule.

    I.e., we’ll be better Saviors when we’re all dead. THEN humanity can achieve paradise, by gum! With the big giant head of one-world corporate bolshevism looming over it all.

    • Replies: @Tyrion 2
    , @PhysicistDave
  185. @Wilkey

    Love. Would be so sweet to see the end of her.

    But also Denham, sponsor of the DACA petition, and Yoder.

    Fewer but better Republicans.

  186. Tyrion 2 says:
    @Olorin

    Can I suggest an important. Instead of since WWII, we leave it as since the 90s?

  187. @Olorin

    Olorin asked me:

    Are you suggesting that they are happy with the Eastern and Middle Eastern and African and other elites?

    Well, actually the Russians and Chinese seem okay with their current ruling elites. Elsewhere, it varies.

    But it is only the Western (mainly American) elite that seriously aims to rule the planet and that has in fact created the current framework since WW II. If a lion and a tiger are both chasing you and the tiger is fifty feet away and the lion a thousand feet further back, you worry first about the tiger.

    Olorin also wrote:

    I mean, it seems you’re buying pretty heavily into the Jewish idea that it’s “WASP”s who are guilty for everything that’s wrong because whatever whatever.

    That soon starts to whiff heavily of Old Testament ritual sacrifice to ensure future prosperity.

    Which I do in fact see as one element of the scourging and flogging of white males, and our widespread fixion onto the cross of whiteness and privilege, with the accompanying laughter and ridicule.

    The ruling elite is, and has been since its inception, largely WASP, though of course there are a significant number of Jews and a token number of racial minorities.

    That’s not ritual self-flagellation; that is just stating a fact.

    However, the ruling elite is a tiny,, tiny fraction of WASPs. Most of us WASPs have no part in it at all — we are among its victims.

    It is self-destructive to fail to identify the enemy just because he happens to be of the same race and gender as oneself.

    That is what the elite desperately wants — they want us to not focus on what they have done to us but instead pick on some other imaginary enemy.

    The ruling elite has mastered the art of “divide and conquer”: prey on and exacerbate division among races and ethnic groups, between the sexes, etc.

    Part of Trump’s genius is that he quite sincerely tries to appeal to decent and productive Americans of all ethnic groups, both sexes, etc.

    That is the road to taking back the country.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  188. Lot says:

    Very early results in Indiana look bad for Joe Donnelly. He needs to run 9.5 points above Hillary 2016 to win. He’s mostly falling short.

    Rural turnout is running at a healthy pace too.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
  189. Lot says:

    FL exit poll: 2018 voters approve of Trump, white share of voters up from 62 in 2016 to 66% in 2018.

  190. @Lot

    Indiana is still early returns, but does look bad for the Dem Donnelly.

    However, Florida looks bad for deSantis and Scott. But, if I remember correctly, the FL Panhandle comes in late and should skew towards the GOP. Can that save them?

  191. Bubba says:
    @Mr. Blank

    That is an excellent analysis, thank you. I h

    I have tunnel vision when it comes to GOP candidates and I’m always looking for someone who will hire and listen to a consultant like the late Lee Atwater, be a fighter and run an inspiring campaign. Instead the GOP always hire the Karl Rove/Mike Murphy clown consultants and lose.

  192. @Desiderius

    No, if he were good he’d make regular admissions against interest to be less obvious. As it is, he’s just a reasonably sharp lawyer perfunctorily arguing his client’s weak case.

    I will take your assessment under advisement, and, after due consideration, adjust my perspective accordingly.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  193. Dave Brat in VA is holding on in to his House seat, but Barbara Comstock (also GOP) is going down. That is what we should expect if the outcome in the House is on a razor’s edge.

    For the House, it is going to be a long night. All of you may have to wait on us Californians.

  194. FL Senate and Gov races are tightening — could be nail-biters.

  195. @PhysicistDave

    Well, actually the Russians and Chinese seem okay with their current ruling elites.

    Hmm. How do you know? If they were not okay with their elites, how could we observe the difference?

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
  196. @Corvinus

    I understand you have difficulty listening to women, especially if they are trying to help you, but it is court mandated, so make the best of the situation.

    Wait, you are a woman?

    Damn. Why didn’t you say so?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  197. @L Woods

    One after which everyone reading this blog will be dead.

    Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori

  198. @Lot

    About $700 at risk if I am wrong on everything. I will only make $300 or so since I am mostly betting on favorites.

    If you win, you will be ahead of me. I haven’t had time to follow races in detail. If you lose, I won’t be as far behind as you.

    PredictIt is great fun, no?

  199. @Anon

    I’ve got my fingers crossed that one of my relatives gets thrown out of office.

    Oh come on, you are Anonymous! Tell us who it is so we can watch.

  200. Carville just threw in the towel, said the Dems will come up short in the House.

  201. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    That’s very gracious of you. Note that you’ve never heard, nor never will, any remotely approximating such sentiments from Corvinus. That’s how you know he’s a party minder.

  202. MSNBC just declared Indiana Senate for the GOP — a big upset.

    But, Cruz could be in serious trouble in Texas.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  203. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    Charles Erwin Wilson II asked me:

    Hmm. How do you know? If they [Russians and Chinese] were not okay with their elites, how could we observe the difference?

    Putin seems to have legitimately won elections. And, I have visited China and spoken with a number of Chinese who were pretty forthright — they had some real criticisms of the regime, but, on the whole, were satisfied.

  204. @PhysicistDave

    MSNBC just declared Indiana Senate for the GOP — a big upset.

    Donnelly jumped the gun on Kavanaugh right when it was guaranteed to make him look the worst.

  205. Trump’s re-election just got a little bit harder:

    Although by then at the rate he’s going he may be a favorite among that demo.

  206. FoxNews has just declared that the Dems take the House. Seems a premature call to me, but probably will turn out that way.

  207. MSNBC has just declared Cruz the winner in the Texas Senate race.

    The Dems cannot now take the Senate.

  208. Corvinus says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    “Wait, you are a woman? Damn. Why didn’t you say so?”

    Um, no, I’m a straight white dude. Your therapist is female, remember? Or do imagine during your sessions with her that she is a man to help alleviate your bitterness and hostility?

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