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Screenshot 2016-04-26 19.22.16

Pretty brutal.

A terrible night for Cruz and a very bad one for Kasich. In Connecticut, Kasich’s best state tonight, home to probably the most country club Republicans in America, he still lost 58-28. Heck, Kasich lost Greenwich, CN, home to the hedge fund industry, to Trump 48-41.

Still, it’s not promising for November for Trump. In Pennsylvania, with 65% counted of both parties, Hillary has 573,163 votes tonight to Trump’s 459,617. That’s not bad for Trump in a state whose Electoral Votes the Democrats have won six times in a row. Presumably, Trump has a puncher’s chance of winning Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes. But it’s an uphill struggle.

UPDATE: In the late counting, Trump almost closed his shadow race gap with Hillary, who got 918,649 votes, to Trump’s 892,702. That’s interesting!

Primaries today in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

Update: an insider sent me what he says are early exit polls:

Clinton
51 47 in ct
64 34 in md
56 44 in pa

Pa
Trump 62
Cruz 21
Kasich 17

CT
Trump 64
Kasich 22
Cruz 12

MD
Trump 60
Kasich 23
Cruz 18

How accurate are they? I dunno, we’ll see …

Update: The projections from the exit polls have been released (see top of post), confirming the early numbers I posted.

 
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  1. The Trumpening heralds? I don’t usually do so, but I checked various polls and he seems to be ready to take the entire board. I’m not sure about how delegates are awarded in these states, but still…

  2. Just looked at the sample ballot for my township in PA. There’s a “beauty contest” primary but the Republicans actually vote for delegates and the delegates are not pledged (or required to state whether they support) to any candidate – in any case there are 4 on the ballot and you vote for 3, so not much choice. None of the other offices on the ballot have any choices at all – you “vote” like in Soviet Union. My district has been attached to a largely black section of Philadelphia so for Congress I can vote for an obscure black person who has zero chance of winning. The Democrat side is contested because the sitting Congressman (Chaka Fattah, the former Arthur Davenport) has been indicted by the Federal government for corruption but he remains on the ballot too. In the last election , he received 88% of the vote. I don’t feel as if I am living in a Republic, I feel as if I am living in a farce. God Bless America.

    • Replies: @iffen
    I live in a racially gerrymandered district in a Red State.

    I have trouble determining which group supports this more enthusiastically; "liberal Democrats" or "conservative Republicans."

    I don't have any trouble determining that it does fit into democracy with a little d.
    , @WorkingClass
    Yeah, I've been reading about PA. Trump will win the vote but not the delegates. So the vote is crap. Right?
    , @dr kill
    Jacky D, yo yo yo. I smell you, dude. we owned a crib in the 27th ward when I was in school in West Philly. Lucien Blackwell was our congressman. We went to vote in the 1983 primary when Goode and Rizzo faced off for the Dem Mayoral nomination. In our precinct the Dem vote was 791 to 3. there were 7 Rep votes total. Two years later Goode bombed MOVE HQ and burned down Osage Avenue.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Jack, I was right there with you. I was living in West Philly for a few years in the 90s and was one of the few to cast a futile vote against then-"promising young candidate Chaka Fattah."
  3. Trump has been rising in the polls since his big win in New York. He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts.

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates , wins Maryland and gets 30+ delegates and wins Delaware (+16). He may get 50% of the Vote in Pennsylvania to pick up 60 of the 71 delegates. In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz. Most Pennsylvania delegates are like our electoral college electors, they are not legally bounded to a candidate, yet they almost always support the winner of the state. Thus Trump should get at least 60 of the 71, but the media will acknowledge only the 17 PA delegates which are legally bounded to Trump.

    so after today Trump will have 990 delegates but the media will acknowledge only 943, ignoring the 40+ delegates from PA who support Trump but are not legally bounded. I suspect the deal Kasich made with Cruz will hurt Kasich in Pennsylvania, thus Cruz finishes second in votes there.

    • Replies: @res

    In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz.
     
    Thanks for all the local info. Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?
    , @Nico

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates
     
    I calculated on Sunday that if Trump wins all the winner-take-all states in which he is currently polling in first place (the other three have not recently been polled), that alone will put him at 1,225 pledged delegates. So if he wins 12 delegates in Rhode Island, it's pretty much over unless Cruz drops out before Indiana.
    , @tbraton
    "He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts. "

    First, Connecticut has 28 delegates, not 26. Secondly, your number is off. If Trump gets over 50% of the statewide vote, he gets all the 13 statewide delegates. Then, there are 3 delegates for each of the five districts that are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each district. So the total number of delegates (in the case where someone gets a majority of the statewide vote) is 13 plus 3 delegates for each district won. If Trump wins all 5 districts, then he gets all 28 (13 + 15). If he loses one district, then he gets 25 delegates (13 + 12), not 23. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CT-R
  4. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump’s skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    • Replies: @Jim Sweeney
    "Skanky" wife? You should be tarred and feathered for that. Mrs. Trump appears to be a perfect lady in her appearance and speech. So what if, when working as a model, she wore bikinis and such? And she sounds intelligent and thoughtful as well.
    , @Thagomizer
    According to his college roommate, Ted Cruz is a verified master debater.

    'Ted Cruz thinks people don't have a right to "stimulate their genitals." I was his college roommate. This would be a new belief of his.'

    https://twitter.com/clmazin/status/720259227067920385

    , @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Up your meds. Significantly.
    , @Dew

    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump’s skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

     

    I admittedly snickered at this.

    Anyways...whether or not Ted Cruz is a master debater, it means little at this point due to a lack of debates.

  5. Northern League backs Trump.

    Renzi sceglie il buonismo disastroso di Obama e Merkel, io preferisco legalità e sicurezza proposte da #Trump2016!

    STOP INVASIONE

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/donald-trump-gets-my-backing-says-italys-matteo-salvini

  6. Just got a report from a Trump supporter outside a polling station in Western Frederick County, Maryland. Everyone giving thumbs up and voting for Trump. No sign of #NeverTrump resident there, Charles Murray, who has got to be mainlining Xanax by now.

    • Replies: @Paul Mendez
    In super-liberal Montgomery County I saw lots of Trump signs around my polling place, but ZERO Cruz and Kasich signs. Crowds were light, but it was the middle of the day and early voting is very popular in this area.

    My Trump hat got one thumbs up.
    , @Flip
    I haven't decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I've lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.
  7. @Jack D
    Just looked at the sample ballot for my township in PA. There's a "beauty contest" primary but the Republicans actually vote for delegates and the delegates are not pledged (or required to state whether they support) to any candidate - in any case there are 4 on the ballot and you vote for 3, so not much choice. None of the other offices on the ballot have any choices at all - you "vote" like in Soviet Union. My district has been attached to a largely black section of Philadelphia so for Congress I can vote for an obscure black person who has zero chance of winning. The Democrat side is contested because the sitting Congressman (Chaka Fattah, the former Arthur Davenport) has been indicted by the Federal government for corruption but he remains on the ballot too. In the last election , he received 88% of the vote. I don't feel as if I am living in a Republic, I feel as if I am living in a farce. God Bless America.

    I live in a racially gerrymandered district in a Red State.

    I have trouble determining which group supports this more enthusiastically; “liberal Democrats” or “conservative Republicans.”

    I don’t have any trouble determining that it does fit into democracy with a little d.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Both parties support gerrymandering because it makes incumbents safer, and they both collude to create minority safe districts. They only disagree about how the gerrymandering is done and who gets to do it, which is why controlling state legislatures every 10 years is such a big deal.
  8. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Trump pivoted to the center again last week. Why not? It’s almost all blue states left in the primary.

    Trump is totally opportunistic which makes him frightening as political opposition. Hillary is scared for good reason. Trump is a shark. Trump is as calculating as Bill Clinton.

    Trump comments today on Hollywood celebs leaving the country will boost his poll numbers again.

  9. Why do most of this voting happen on Tuesday ?

    • Replies: @Astolf
    From the election day Wiki page:

    In 1845, the United States was largely an agrarian society. Farmers often needed a full day to travel by horse-drawn vehicles to the county seat to vote. Tuesday was established as election day because it did not interfere with the Biblical Sabbath or with market day, which was on Wednesday in many towns.

    Sounds plausible.
  10. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Polls show Trump getting blown out in the Northeast (Clinton beats him by 19 points in the latest poll in New York) – he’s not really doing well there.

    (This is a quote from the other thread)

    It does not matter how many times Hillary Clinton’s leads collapse–people still point to her inevitability.

    HRC is the worst campaigner of modern times. Get ready for the implosion.

    • Replies: @anon
    Yes, it's going to be a massacre.

    As someone else said Trump is a shark; all the other candidates are the bought or blackmailed puppets of sharks.

    Even with all the media on her side it's no contest.

  11. • Replies: @Danindc
    Not terrible but not all that funny. Actors are gay.
  12. @Travis
    Trump has been rising in the polls since his big win in New York. He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts.

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates , wins Maryland and gets 30+ delegates and wins Delaware (+16). He may get 50% of the Vote in Pennsylvania to pick up 60 of the 71 delegates. In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz. Most Pennsylvania delegates are like our electoral college electors, they are not legally bounded to a candidate, yet they almost always support the winner of the state. Thus Trump should get at least 60 of the 71, but the media will acknowledge only the 17 PA delegates which are legally bounded to Trump.

    so after today Trump will have 990 delegates but the media will acknowledge only 943, ignoring the 40+ delegates from PA who support Trump but are not legally bounded. I suspect the deal Kasich made with Cruz will hurt Kasich in Pennsylvania, thus Cruz finishes second in votes there.

    In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz.

    Thanks for all the local info. Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?

    • Replies: @SteveO

    Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?
     
    They sure don't make it easy, do they? This is the first time in many, many years I've been able to vote in a primary that mattered and definitely the first time since I moved to Pennsylvania 20 years ago. It's ridiculous how opaque the system is and how little information is provided to voters.

    Even Googling the question returns a series of news articles and mostly uninformative sites, but you might try this:

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It's for eastern PA only, though.

    Out of curiosity, I took a look at information available to voters in my home county in Maryland. To my complete lack of surprise, there was abundant information, well-organized and civic-minded, much of it from various goo-goo groups. Of course they're all liberal - it's a very liberal state that Trump has about -1% chance of winning - but most of the information was non-partisan and helpful.

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways. Totally worth the higher taxes. Of course, there might be a wee bit of home-state bias influencing my opinion ...
    , @Anonymous
    There was a Trump booth, attended by a few middle-aged gentlemen, outside of the polling station in Pike County (the Poconos, Eastern PA), promoting one particular delegate -- John Wells. When I asked which other delegates were "safe" to pick from the list of 9, they kind-of recommended one more name, but without assurances. (A voter can pick up to three delegates from the list, and up to three alternate delegates.) If the semi-organized Trump supporters cannot suggest a fool-proof slate of delegates, the system must really be opaque.
    , @Travis
    CNN did an article today about the Pennsylvania delegates.
    according to CNN interviews with 135 of the 162 candidates on the ballot. About 25% say they'll support the front-runner, another 42% say they'll support their district's choice. This bodes well for Trump, who is poised to win most of the state's congressional districts.
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/pennsylvania-delegates-trump-kasich-cruz/
  13. Can Trump pull this off, even if the deal between Cruz and Kasich freezes him out of Indiana? This whole exercise has been a fascinating lesson in American geography.

    On a different note, my wife and I love Cyprus so much we have decided to extend our stay. If we were to spend some time in the US, what would be the best way of arranging this?

    A). Apply for some kind of visa. What kind?
    B). Swim the Rio Grande.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    I believe you would be eligible for an automatic Visa Waiver for a 90 day stay

    http://www.ustraveldocs.com/nz/nz-niv-visawaiverinfo.asp

    You just have to get online pre-clearance here:

    https://esta.cbp.dhs.gov/esta/

    As long as you don't show up in any criminal databases you should clear automatically.
    , @Entity
    Trump can still win without Indiana, but he needs a blowout in California, and maybe additional unbound delegates. He's poised to hit 50% in Connecticut, which improves his odds somewhat, but he'll need more.

    Indiana is worth 30 delegates plus the 27 delegates assigned by district. An Indiana loss would significantly worsen the odds. I calculated that an Indiana loss reduces Trump's odds at the nomination by something like 40%, and an Indiana win increases Trump's odds by 20%.
  14. @neutral
    Why do most of this voting happen on Tuesday ?

    From the election day Wiki page:

    In 1845, the United States was largely an agrarian society. Farmers often needed a full day to travel by horse-drawn vehicles to the county seat to vote. Tuesday was established as election day because it did not interfere with the Biblical Sabbath or with market day, which was on Wednesday in many towns.

    Sounds plausible.

    • Replies: @I, Libertine
    Why the Tuesday after the first Monday, and not just the first Tuesday? To avoid a conflict with All Saints Day? Do Protestants celebrate it?
  15. @Jack D
    Just looked at the sample ballot for my township in PA. There's a "beauty contest" primary but the Republicans actually vote for delegates and the delegates are not pledged (or required to state whether they support) to any candidate - in any case there are 4 on the ballot and you vote for 3, so not much choice. None of the other offices on the ballot have any choices at all - you "vote" like in Soviet Union. My district has been attached to a largely black section of Philadelphia so for Congress I can vote for an obscure black person who has zero chance of winning. The Democrat side is contested because the sitting Congressman (Chaka Fattah, the former Arthur Davenport) has been indicted by the Federal government for corruption but he remains on the ballot too. In the last election , he received 88% of the vote. I don't feel as if I am living in a Republic, I feel as if I am living in a farce. God Bless America.

    Yeah, I’ve been reading about PA. Trump will win the vote but not the delegates. So the vote is crap. Right?

    • Replies: @Travis
    Most of those on the ballot running as delegates have already vowed to support the winner of their district or State. They always have supported the winner in past conventions, so the odds are they will support Trump at the convention if he wins Pennsylvania. Hard to imagine they would ignore their constituents and vote for Cruz. The media will continue the narrative that Trump only won 17 of the 71 delegates, as 17 will be legally bounded for the winner. but in reality Trump picks up 50+ PA delegates today. The voters actually select the delegates when they vote today, thus Cruz will have no influence in selecting the PA delegates.

    Some delegates running in PA are strong supporters for Trump. Below is a link to their names.
    http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#!know-your-delegates/s4vv7

  16. OT –

    Steve, you were linked to in the Atlantic Media site Quartz, one of the new “check your privilege – microaggression – diversity” media properties. Their article on Theranos links to one of your columns about Holmes taking stupid old men to the cleaners.

    Can’t tell if (a) they don’t know who you are, (b) they would have liked to link elsewhere, but nobody else had explained Theranos as clearly and relatably as you, or (c) it’s some stealth non-SJW at Quartz trying to foul up the works.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910

    Steve, you were linked to in the Atlantic Media site Quartz, one of the new “check your privilege – microaggression – diversity” media properties. Their article on Theranos links to one of your columns about Holmes taking stupid old men to the cleaners.
     
    http://qz.com/669394/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-meteoric-rise-and-dizzying-fall-of-theranos/

    But the leading explanation seems to be that they were enthralled by the company’s charismatic young founder.
     
  17. Steve, it’s starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Steve, it’s starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!"

    So it is Sicario. I am sure the Left Wing media wanted it to be some White trash Jesse Pinkman meth dealer type who committed the execution. But since Mexicans did it, it puts the spotlight back on immigration again.
    , @anon
    Yes, that was clear from the beginning - mom and pop rural criminal family being taken out and from south of the border judging by the deliberately excessive body count.

    The Borg billionaires ought to be in jail for all the bloodshed they are responsible for.
    , @The Millennial Falcon
    The wrong side of history seems to be the right side of prognostication.
    , @Harry Baldwin
    When a newborn baby is executed you can safely assume our South of the Border brethren are involved. Or a Jamaican gang.
  18. @res

    In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz.
     
    Thanks for all the local info. Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?

    Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?

    They sure don’t make it easy, do they? This is the first time in many, many years I’ve been able to vote in a primary that mattered and definitely the first time since I moved to Pennsylvania 20 years ago. It’s ridiculous how opaque the system is and how little information is provided to voters.

    Even Googling the question returns a series of news articles and mostly uninformative sites, but you might try this:

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It’s for eastern PA only, though.

    Out of curiosity, I took a look at information available to voters in my home county in Maryland. To my complete lack of surprise, there was abundant information, well-organized and civic-minded, much of it from various goo-goo groups. Of course they’re all liberal – it’s a very liberal state that Trump has about -1% chance of winning – but most of the information was non-partisan and helpful.

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways. Totally worth the higher taxes. Of course, there might be a wee bit of home-state bias influencing my opinion …

    • Replies: @Nico

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways.
     
    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.
    , @res

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It’s for eastern PA only, though.
     
    Thanks! That was helpful. It did seem to contradict the idea that 70% of delegates are committed to supporting the district/state winner though (my quick eyeball was 1/4 Trump, 1/4 Cruz, 1/4 top vote getter, 1/4 uncommitted). Any thoughts on that? Any PA news from the polls?
  19. @SteveO

    Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?
     
    They sure don't make it easy, do they? This is the first time in many, many years I've been able to vote in a primary that mattered and definitely the first time since I moved to Pennsylvania 20 years ago. It's ridiculous how opaque the system is and how little information is provided to voters.

    Even Googling the question returns a series of news articles and mostly uninformative sites, but you might try this:

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It's for eastern PA only, though.

    Out of curiosity, I took a look at information available to voters in my home county in Maryland. To my complete lack of surprise, there was abundant information, well-organized and civic-minded, much of it from various goo-goo groups. Of course they're all liberal - it's a very liberal state that Trump has about -1% chance of winning - but most of the information was non-partisan and helpful.

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways. Totally worth the higher taxes. Of course, there might be a wee bit of home-state bias influencing my opinion ...

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways.

    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @SteveO

    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.
     
    Well, I said "in so many ways", not "in every way". You're right about Philadelphia vs. Baltimore. Philadelphia is also a more interesting city than DC (not strictly speaking in Maryland, of course), although I wouldn't call it better. Just more interesting, especially if you like that sort of gritty, blue-collar ethnic, "Rocky" feel that Philly has and that is completely absent in Washington.

    If you like big Northeastern-type cities, this is all very relevant. If not - I don't - then it doesn't really matter. I lived in Maryland for 30 years and visited Baltimore city perhaps four times despite its being only a half-hour's drive away.

    It's a matter of personal taste and experience, of course, but overall Maryland remains a better place to live in my opinion. Yes, the taxes are higher, but the services are better. Greater affluence + higher taxes + more educated population = much better services.

    Besides, Maryland has Ledo pizza. What more needs to be said?
  20. @MKP
    OT -

    Steve, you were linked to in the Atlantic Media site Quartz, one of the new "check your privilege - microaggression - diversity" media properties. Their article on Theranos links to one of your columns about Holmes taking stupid old men to the cleaners.

    Can't tell if (a) they don't know who you are, (b) they would have liked to link elsewhere, but nobody else had explained Theranos as clearly and relatably as you, or (c) it's some stealth non-SJW at Quartz trying to foul up the works.

    Steve, you were linked to in the Atlantic Media site Quartz, one of the new “check your privilege – microaggression – diversity” media properties. Their article on Theranos links to one of your columns about Holmes taking stupid old men to the cleaners.

    http://qz.com/669394/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-meteoric-rise-and-dizzying-fall-of-theranos/

    But the leading explanation seems to be that they were enthralled by the company’s charismatic young founder.

  21. @Travis
    Trump has been rising in the polls since his big win in New York. He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts.

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates , wins Maryland and gets 30+ delegates and wins Delaware (+16). He may get 50% of the Vote in Pennsylvania to pick up 60 of the 71 delegates. In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz. Most Pennsylvania delegates are like our electoral college electors, they are not legally bounded to a candidate, yet they almost always support the winner of the state. Thus Trump should get at least 60 of the 71, but the media will acknowledge only the 17 PA delegates which are legally bounded to Trump.

    so after today Trump will have 990 delegates but the media will acknowledge only 943, ignoring the 40+ delegates from PA who support Trump but are not legally bounded. I suspect the deal Kasich made with Cruz will hurt Kasich in Pennsylvania, thus Cruz finishes second in votes there.

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates

    I calculated on Sunday that if Trump wins all the winner-take-all states in which he is currently polling in first place (the other three have not recently been polled), that alone will put him at 1,225 pledged delegates. So if he wins 12 delegates in Rhode Island, it’s pretty much over unless Cruz drops out before Indiana.

  22. @22pp22
    Can Trump pull this off, even if the deal between Cruz and Kasich freezes him out of Indiana? This whole exercise has been a fascinating lesson in American geography.

    On a different note, my wife and I love Cyprus so much we have decided to extend our stay. If we were to spend some time in the US, what would be the best way of arranging this?

    A). Apply for some kind of visa. What kind?
    B). Swim the Rio Grande.

    I believe you would be eligible for an automatic Visa Waiver for a 90 day stay

    http://www.ustraveldocs.com/nz/nz-niv-visawaiverinfo.asp

    You just have to get online pre-clearance here:

    https://esta.cbp.dhs.gov/esta/

    As long as you don’t show up in any criminal databases you should clear automatically.

    • Replies: @22pp22
    I have UK and NZ passports and now Cyprus permanent residency even if Britain leaves the EU. America is a very big place and interesting place and it might be fun to spend a little more than three months there.

    I'm definitely going to visit any states that vote for Trump in November (provided he wins the nomination). Their inhabitants will have earned my thanks in the form of large restaurant tips.
  23. The MD-SEN-D primary (in essence the whole election) is today, too, the Chris Van Hollen versus Donna Edwards primary you discussed earlier, and one I’ve been paying attention to for about a year.

    Certain otherwise taboo issues have served as an undercurrent in that race.

    https://theintercept.com/2016/04/25/pro-israel-billionaire-haim-saban-drops-100000-against-donna-edwards-in-maryland-senate-race/

    • Replies: @Lot
    I agree if Van Hollen wins the primary, the general election will be a formality and 20 point blowout.

    But Edwards? No way. Last time a black democrat ran statewide was 2014, and he lost to Republican governor Larry Hogan. And it wasn't even that close for an open seat, 51.5 to 46.9.

    Here's the likely Republican candidate this round:

    http://www.kathyformaryland.com/

    Edwards could still win, but it would be by 2 or 3 points.
  24. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz.
     
    Thanks for all the local info. Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?

    There was a Trump booth, attended by a few middle-aged gentlemen, outside of the polling station in Pike County (the Poconos, Eastern PA), promoting one particular delegate — John Wells. When I asked which other delegates were “safe” to pick from the list of 9, they kind-of recommended one more name, but without assurances. (A voter can pick up to three delegates from the list, and up to three alternate delegates.) If the semi-organized Trump supporters cannot suggest a fool-proof slate of delegates, the system must really be opaque.

  25. @SteveO

    Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?
     
    They sure don't make it easy, do they? This is the first time in many, many years I've been able to vote in a primary that mattered and definitely the first time since I moved to Pennsylvania 20 years ago. It's ridiculous how opaque the system is and how little information is provided to voters.

    Even Googling the question returns a series of news articles and mostly uninformative sites, but you might try this:

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It's for eastern PA only, though.

    Out of curiosity, I took a look at information available to voters in my home county in Maryland. To my complete lack of surprise, there was abundant information, well-organized and civic-minded, much of it from various goo-goo groups. Of course they're all liberal - it's a very liberal state that Trump has about -1% chance of winning - but most of the information was non-partisan and helpful.

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways. Totally worth the higher taxes. Of course, there might be a wee bit of home-state bias influencing my opinion ...

    http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

    It’s for eastern PA only, though.

    Thanks! That was helpful. It did seem to contradict the idea that 70% of delegates are committed to supporting the district/state winner though (my quick eyeball was 1/4 Trump, 1/4 Cruz, 1/4 top vote getter, 1/4 uncommitted). Any thoughts on that? Any PA news from the polls?

  26. Another election day? I thought they cancelled those so the criminal elite … sorry, I meant the Party Elite can get about to the business of making hard choices for us.

    • Replies: @Kristen
    Here in Colorado, the presidential caucus was cancelled. So much for a representative democracy. Perhaps it's time for a direct democracy, one in which we have NO stupid representatives and vote on the bills ourselves? With today's tech, it could be done.
  27. @WorkingClass
    Yeah, I've been reading about PA. Trump will win the vote but not the delegates. So the vote is crap. Right?

    Most of those on the ballot running as delegates have already vowed to support the winner of their district or State. They always have supported the winner in past conventions, so the odds are they will support Trump at the convention if he wins Pennsylvania. Hard to imagine they would ignore their constituents and vote for Cruz. The media will continue the narrative that Trump only won 17 of the 71 delegates, as 17 will be legally bounded for the winner. but in reality Trump picks up 50+ PA delegates today. The voters actually select the delegates when they vote today, thus Cruz will have no influence in selecting the PA delegates.

    Some delegates running in PA are strong supporters for Trump. Below is a link to their names.
    http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#!know-your-delegates/s4vv7

  28. @Jack D
    I believe you would be eligible for an automatic Visa Waiver for a 90 day stay

    http://www.ustraveldocs.com/nz/nz-niv-visawaiverinfo.asp

    You just have to get online pre-clearance here:

    https://esta.cbp.dhs.gov/esta/

    As long as you don't show up in any criminal databases you should clear automatically.

    I have UK and NZ passports and now Cyprus permanent residency even if Britain leaves the EU. America is a very big place and interesting place and it might be fun to spend a little more than three months there.

    I’m definitely going to visit any states that vote for Trump in November (provided he wins the nomination). Their inhabitants will have earned my thanks in the form of large restaurant tips.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    You can apply for a B-2 Tourist visa which is 180 days but requires more paperwork, a visit to the nearest US consulate , waiting time, etc.

    Or you could spend 3 months in the US , 3 months visiting Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, etc. and then come back for another 3 months in the US.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Come on over!
  29. @iffen
    I live in a racially gerrymandered district in a Red State.

    I have trouble determining which group supports this more enthusiastically; "liberal Democrats" or "conservative Republicans."

    I don't have any trouble determining that it does fit into democracy with a little d.

    Both parties support gerrymandering because it makes incumbents safer, and they both collude to create minority safe districts. They only disagree about how the gerrymandering is done and who gets to do it, which is why controlling state legislatures every 10 years is such a big deal.

    • Agree: iffen
  30. US unions plan attack on Donald Trump in attempt to derail presidential bid

    Concerned labor group leaders are organizing ad campaigns and phone banks as Trump’s populist message on trade and jobs draws in union voters

    “We can’t be fooled,” Richard Trumka

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/26/us-unions-donald-trump-us-election-2016

    • Replies: @Glaivester
    #NeverTrumka
  31. @Anonymous
    Steve, it's starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!

    “Steve, it’s starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!”

    So it is Sicario. I am sure the Left Wing media wanted it to be some White trash Jesse Pinkman meth dealer type who committed the execution. But since Mexicans did it, it puts the spotlight back on immigration again.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    APRIL 26, 2016, 7:32 AM|Investigators are looking into the possibility of a Mexico drug cartel killing eight members of an Ohio family in a pre-planned execution. It has been four days since bodies of the Rhoden family were found in multiple homes. According to law enforcement, there were about 200 marijuana plants growing in some of the homes. David Begnaud reports from Pike County, Ohio.
    Authorities also said there was evidence of cockfighting found on the farms, though it’s unclear if that has any connection to the killings.
    (via CBS news)

    Hmmm...Mexicans like cockfighting...so did some rural whites though fewer these days.

  32. If you want to vote for Trump delegates in PA, here you are

  33. @res

    In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz.
     
    Thanks for all the local info. Can you point me to a good reference discussing the commitments made by the PA delegates?

    CNN did an article today about the Pennsylvania delegates.
    according to CNN interviews with 135 of the 162 candidates on the ballot. About 25% say they’ll support the front-runner, another 42% say they’ll support their district’s choice. This bodes well for Trump, who is poised to win most of the state’s congressional districts.
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/pennsylvania-delegates-trump-kasich-cruz/

  34. @22pp22
    Can Trump pull this off, even if the deal between Cruz and Kasich freezes him out of Indiana? This whole exercise has been a fascinating lesson in American geography.

    On a different note, my wife and I love Cyprus so much we have decided to extend our stay. If we were to spend some time in the US, what would be the best way of arranging this?

    A). Apply for some kind of visa. What kind?
    B). Swim the Rio Grande.

    Trump can still win without Indiana, but he needs a blowout in California, and maybe additional unbound delegates. He’s poised to hit 50% in Connecticut, which improves his odds somewhat, but he’ll need more.

    Indiana is worth 30 delegates plus the 27 delegates assigned by district. An Indiana loss would significantly worsen the odds. I calculated that an Indiana loss reduces Trump’s odds at the nomination by something like 40%, and an Indiana win increases Trump’s odds by 20%.

  35. @22pp22
    I have UK and NZ passports and now Cyprus permanent residency even if Britain leaves the EU. America is a very big place and interesting place and it might be fun to spend a little more than three months there.

    I'm definitely going to visit any states that vote for Trump in November (provided he wins the nomination). Their inhabitants will have earned my thanks in the form of large restaurant tips.

    You can apply for a B-2 Tourist visa which is 180 days but requires more paperwork, a visit to the nearest US consulate , waiting time, etc.

    Or you could spend 3 months in the US , 3 months visiting Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, etc. and then come back for another 3 months in the US.

    • Replies: @22pp22
    Thanks
    , @22pp22
    Thanks
  36. OT: Did you see this Steve? The same-day delivery gap:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-amazon-same-day/?cmpid=google

    In this case, I doubt there’s any racist motive, but this is an another example of how more and better data, can actually lead to more and “better” levels of discrimination, i.e. profit-relevant profiling that can exacerbate “disparate impacts” for particular groups; which in this case means residents of certain majority-black neighborhoods having to wait twice as long to receive their Amazon purchases.

  37. @Anonymous
    Polls show Trump getting blown out in the Northeast (Clinton beats him by 19 points in the latest poll in New York) – he’s not really doing well there.

    (This is a quote from the other thread)

    It does not matter how many times Hillary Clinton's leads collapse--people still point to her inevitability.

    HRC is the worst campaigner of modern times. Get ready for the implosion.

    Yes, it’s going to be a massacre.

    As someone else said Trump is a shark; all the other candidates are the bought or blackmailed puppets of sharks.

    Even with all the media on her side it’s no contest.

    • Agree: BB753
  38. @Anonymous
    Steve, it's starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!

    Yes, that was clear from the beginning – mom and pop rural criminal family being taken out and from south of the border judging by the deliberately excessive body count.

    The Borg billionaires ought to be in jail for all the bloodshed they are responsible for.

  39. In RI it seems pretty clear Trump will win the Republican primary. I am registered “Unaffiliated” so, for the first time in my life, I’ll request a Dem ballot, not so much to vote for Sanders as AGAINST Clinton.

  40. Donald Trump will easily win in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Close wins in Connecticut and Maryland.
    As for Cruz, he will probably win Delaware but should quit as there won’t be enough delegates left afterwards for him to be nominated. He already needs 92 percent of the remaining delegates.

  41. I’m done with Trump. He doesn’t even talk about immigration much anymore. Yeah, “the wall”. That’s all that’s left, and it wouldn’t be enough without interior enforcement, H1b reduction, rapefugee repulsion, etc.

    BTW before y’all jump all over me for “hypocrisy”, I still think he’s the best candidate on Israel.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "I’m done with Trump"

    How can you be done with Trump when you were never pro-Trump in the first place.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Do you really think Trump is too stupid to know how he got here? If he doesn't play the immigration card he loses the general election even if he gets the Republican nod.

    Trump is a cynical opportunist, but he is not stupid.

    Vote Trump!
  42. @International Jew
    I'm done with Trump. He doesn't even talk about immigration much anymore. Yeah, "the wall". That's all that's left, and it wouldn't be enough without interior enforcement, H1b reduction, rapefugee repulsion, etc.

    BTW before y'all jump all over me for "hypocrisy", I still think he's the best candidate on Israel.

    “I’m done with Trump”

    How can you be done with Trump when you were never pro-Trump in the first place.

    • Replies: @International Jew
    Are you calling me a cuckservative troll?

    You really will find me saying nice things about Trump if you read my past posts here. In fact I'm sorta happy for him after his results today.

    I still like what he represents. I just don't like, or trust, him anymore.
  43. A shoutout to my fellow Trump betters on PredictIt: TRUMP TO 80!

    The fees will not be pleasant. 10% of winnings, 5% of the total amount to withdraw, and 0.5% bet closing fee. So the $4 bet on Trumping paying $10, when the fees are taken out, will be $8.85. Still a nice return of more than double.

    • Replies: @SFG
    Does anyone actually do PredictIt for the money?
  44. @countenance
    The MD-SEN-D primary (in essence the whole election) is today, too, the Chris Van Hollen versus Donna Edwards primary you discussed earlier, and one I've been paying attention to for about a year.

    Certain otherwise taboo issues have served as an undercurrent in that race.

    http://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/unnamed-31.jpg

    https://theintercept.com/2016/04/25/pro-israel-billionaire-haim-saban-drops-100000-against-donna-edwards-in-maryland-senate-race/

    I agree if Van Hollen wins the primary, the general election will be a formality and 20 point blowout.

    But Edwards? No way. Last time a black democrat ran statewide was 2014, and he lost to Republican governor Larry Hogan. And it wasn’t even that close for an open seat, 51.5 to 46.9.

    Here’s the likely Republican candidate this round:

    http://www.kathyformaryland.com/

    Edwards could still win, but it would be by 2 or 3 points.

    • Replies: @Andrew
    I agree on Edwards. Hopefully she wins the primary, because that is the GOP's only chance to pick up a senate seat there.
    , @countenance
    Maryland is so deep blue and the Republican Party is such a non-entity in Federal politics (U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Presidential), that I don't think even Donna Edwards will have a problem, even if her winning this primary makes (((certain people))) mad.

    The reason why Governor in 2014 turned out the way it did was because it was a statewide state government race, not a Federal race within a state. Lots of deep blue states often have Republican governors, and vice-versa. That, and 2014's dynamics were altered by low black turnout (no Obama on the ballot to galvanize).

    As an aside, here's where we can monitor that race:

    http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/senate/maryland
  45. @Anonymous
    Just got a report from a Trump supporter outside a polling station in Western Frederick County, Maryland. Everyone giving thumbs up and voting for Trump. No sign of #NeverTrump resident there, Charles Murray, who has got to be mainlining Xanax by now.

    In super-liberal Montgomery County I saw lots of Trump signs around my polling place, but ZERO Cruz and Kasich signs. Crowds were light, but it was the middle of the day and early voting is very popular in this area.

    My Trump hat got one thumbs up.

    • Replies: @SteveO
    Yeah, but who else are Montgomery County Republicans going to support? Certainly not Cruz. While I'm sure there a few evangelicals here and there, most of them who were born in MontCo have surely decamped to Carroll or Frederick County by now. I can't imagine that too many are moving in to replace them. Outspoken social conservatism does not sell in the DC area.

    So, Kasich? Well, in some ways he fits the bill because he's an establishment Republican who should theoretically appeal to locals in this very Establishment county. And Trump's noisy, brash, pushy style is not popular with the polite professionals of Beltwayland. I think Kasich will run second in MontCo and maybe in Maryland as a whole. However, he's not going to win the nomination, and Washingtonians are pragmatic about this sort of thing for obvious reasons. That leaves Trump as the only choice.

    I think Trump will win all the DC burbs, along with the rest of the state, but it will be with a lot of nose-holding by voters. Frankly, I winced a bit myself when pulling the Trump lever earlier today. You can take the boy out of DC, but ...

    As I said above, it's irrelevant in the general election anyway because there's almost no chance of Trump or any Republican winning Maryland.

  46. Couple of random aphorisms:

    America deserves better than Trump, but Republican pols do not.

    People talk about Trump being stupid, uneducated, etc. Wolves are smarter than dogs. Which would you rather have watching your back?

    (Guess he could be a stupid wolf, though.)

    • Replies: @SFG
    'Stupid wolf' is quite possible, at least in the sense of possibly flying off the handle or not being well versed in current affairs. (The man is definitely not stupid per se given his skill at media manipulation.)

    Still; he lives or dies on the immigration issue, the others are opportunists. If that's what you care about, he's your guy.

    I'd have rather seen him push the others to the right on immigration and have one of them win who actually has been in government before. But--you don't always get to pick.

    , @Lugash
    We deserve a 21st century Eisenhower. Until he appears, we roll The Donald.

    I hope that once Trump secures the nomination we start seeing some GOP policy makers come over to his camp. His team is non existent at this point.
  47. I’m done with Trump. He doesn’t even talk about immigration much anymore. Yeah, “the wall”. That’s all that’s left, and it wouldn’t be enough without interior enforcement, H1b reduction, rapefugee repulsion, etc.

    Yeah, he should keep hammering it. It’s disappointing that he isn’t. But it’s not like he removed his policy paper from his site, or recanted on immigration, is it?

  48. http://www.wnd.com/2016/04/emp-alert-2-n-korean-satellites-now-orbit-over-u-s/

    ?

    But yeah let’s obsess over the states that Israel happens to obsess over.

    • Replies: @SFG
    I agree, although I don't think NK's dumb enough to actually start something with the USA--they know we're dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering.
  49. Megyn Kelly will interview Donald Trump on May 17. I hope he behaves like a gentleman in front of her and does not go into Troll Trump mode, because it would definitely hurt him in the polls if he does.

  50. All the campaigns published a list of Pennsylvania delegates they support or who are supporting them.

    Here is Trump’s. I voted my slate this morning.

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/pennsylvania

  51. @Lot
    I agree if Van Hollen wins the primary, the general election will be a formality and 20 point blowout.

    But Edwards? No way. Last time a black democrat ran statewide was 2014, and he lost to Republican governor Larry Hogan. And it wasn't even that close for an open seat, 51.5 to 46.9.

    Here's the likely Republican candidate this round:

    http://www.kathyformaryland.com/

    Edwards could still win, but it would be by 2 or 3 points.

    I agree on Edwards. Hopefully she wins the primary, because that is the GOP’s only chance to pick up a senate seat there.

  52. @Anonymous
    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump's skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    “Skanky” wife? You should be tarred and feathered for that. Mrs. Trump appears to be a perfect lady in her appearance and speech. So what if, when working as a model, she wore bikinis and such? And she sounds intelligent and thoughtful as well.

    • Replies: @SFG
    I think he may be tongue in cheek--'master debater' sounds an awful lot like 'masturbator'.

    Cruz does give off a bit of the geek vibe--on the other hand, we know he's produced two kids with his not-awful-looking wife, so it doesn't quite connect.

    Unless he's a cuck as the term was *originally* conceived...

  53. @Travis
    Trump has been rising in the polls since his big win in New York. He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts.

    He wins Rhode Island to pick up 10-12 delegates , wins Maryland and gets 30+ delegates and wins Delaware (+16). He may get 50% of the Vote in Pennsylvania to pick up 60 of the 71 delegates. In PA delegates are on the ballot and 70% have promised to vote for the winner of the state while some delegates have stated their support for Trump, Kasich and/or Cruz. Most Pennsylvania delegates are like our electoral college electors, they are not legally bounded to a candidate, yet they almost always support the winner of the state. Thus Trump should get at least 60 of the 71, but the media will acknowledge only the 17 PA delegates which are legally bounded to Trump.

    so after today Trump will have 990 delegates but the media will acknowledge only 943, ignoring the 40+ delegates from PA who support Trump but are not legally bounded. I suspect the deal Kasich made with Cruz will hurt Kasich in Pennsylvania, thus Cruz finishes second in votes there.

    “He will get over 50% of the votes in Connecticut, and get 23 of the 26 delegates, some delegates are allocated by district and he may not win one of the 5 districts. ”

    First, Connecticut has 28 delegates, not 26. Secondly, your number is off. If Trump gets over 50% of the statewide vote, he gets all the 13 statewide delegates. Then, there are 3 delegates for each of the five districts that are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each district. So the total number of delegates (in the case where someone gets a majority of the statewide vote) is 13 plus 3 delegates for each district won. If Trump wins all 5 districts, then he gets all 28 (13 + 15). If he loses one district, then he gets 25 delegates (13 + 12), not 23. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CT-R

  54. @Paul Mendez
    In super-liberal Montgomery County I saw lots of Trump signs around my polling place, but ZERO Cruz and Kasich signs. Crowds were light, but it was the middle of the day and early voting is very popular in this area.

    My Trump hat got one thumbs up.

    Yeah, but who else are Montgomery County Republicans going to support? Certainly not Cruz. While I’m sure there a few evangelicals here and there, most of them who were born in MontCo have surely decamped to Carroll or Frederick County by now. I can’t imagine that too many are moving in to replace them. Outspoken social conservatism does not sell in the DC area.

    So, Kasich? Well, in some ways he fits the bill because he’s an establishment Republican who should theoretically appeal to locals in this very Establishment county. And Trump’s noisy, brash, pushy style is not popular with the polite professionals of Beltwayland. I think Kasich will run second in MontCo and maybe in Maryland as a whole. However, he’s not going to win the nomination, and Washingtonians are pragmatic about this sort of thing for obvious reasons. That leaves Trump as the only choice.

    I think Trump will win all the DC burbs, along with the rest of the state, but it will be with a lot of nose-holding by voters. Frankly, I winced a bit myself when pulling the Trump lever earlier today. You can take the boy out of DC, but …

    As I said above, it’s irrelevant in the general election anyway because there’s almost no chance of Trump or any Republican winning Maryland.

    • Replies: @27 year old
    Trump could win Maryland, they have a GOP Governor.

    Trump gets all the white guys who voted for Hogan (and a bunch more who didn't care about Hogan), plus he peels off a few points worth of blacks, he could easily win MD
    , @Ed
    According to MSNBC, the only Congressional district in any of the states that voted tonight that Trump might lose is the 8th Maryland district. This district includes part of Montgomery County and a bunch of rural Appalachian countries along the Potomac Valley. This district might still be carried by Kasich.

    I assume the rural Appalachian voters are going to Trump, so if Kasich has a chance of winning the district he probably is carrying Montgomery County.
  55. @Anonymous
    Steve, it's starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!

    The wrong side of history seems to be the right side of prognostication.

  56. @Jack D
    Just looked at the sample ballot for my township in PA. There's a "beauty contest" primary but the Republicans actually vote for delegates and the delegates are not pledged (or required to state whether they support) to any candidate - in any case there are 4 on the ballot and you vote for 3, so not much choice. None of the other offices on the ballot have any choices at all - you "vote" like in Soviet Union. My district has been attached to a largely black section of Philadelphia so for Congress I can vote for an obscure black person who has zero chance of winning. The Democrat side is contested because the sitting Congressman (Chaka Fattah, the former Arthur Davenport) has been indicted by the Federal government for corruption but he remains on the ballot too. In the last election , he received 88% of the vote. I don't feel as if I am living in a Republic, I feel as if I am living in a farce. God Bless America.

    Jacky D, yo yo yo. I smell you, dude. we owned a crib in the 27th ward when I was in school in West Philly. Lucien Blackwell was our congressman. We went to vote in the 1983 primary when Goode and Rizzo faced off for the Dem Mayoral nomination. In our precinct the Dem vote was 791 to 3. there were 7 Rep votes total. Two years later Goode bombed MOVE HQ and burned down Osage Avenue.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    His widow, Jannie, is STILL the Councilwoman for W. Philly so the Blackwell family has held that seat continuously since 1972 - this is almost as long as the Communist Party ruled Russia.
  57. @Anonymous
    Just got a report from a Trump supporter outside a polling station in Western Frederick County, Maryland. Everyone giving thumbs up and voting for Trump. No sign of #NeverTrump resident there, Charles Murray, who has got to be mainlining Xanax by now.

    I haven’t decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Which tweets?

    I lost respect for Johnson after he virtue signaled anti-racism against Trump supporters.
  58. @Lot
    I agree if Van Hollen wins the primary, the general election will be a formality and 20 point blowout.

    But Edwards? No way. Last time a black democrat ran statewide was 2014, and he lost to Republican governor Larry Hogan. And it wasn't even that close for an open seat, 51.5 to 46.9.

    Here's the likely Republican candidate this round:

    http://www.kathyformaryland.com/

    Edwards could still win, but it would be by 2 or 3 points.

    Maryland is so deep blue and the Republican Party is such a non-entity in Federal politics (U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Presidential), that I don’t think even Donna Edwards will have a problem, even if her winning this primary makes (((certain people))) mad.

    The reason why Governor in 2014 turned out the way it did was because it was a statewide state government race, not a Federal race within a state. Lots of deep blue states often have Republican governors, and vice-versa. That, and 2014’s dynamics were altered by low black turnout (no Obama on the ballot to galvanize).

    As an aside, here’s where we can monitor that race:

    http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/senate/maryland

  59. @Flip
    I haven't decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I've lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.

    Which tweets?

    I lost respect for Johnson after he virtue signaled anti-racism against Trump supporters.

  60. @Lot
    A shoutout to my fellow Trump betters on PredictIt: TRUMP TO 80!

    The fees will not be pleasant. 10% of winnings, 5% of the total amount to withdraw, and 0.5% bet closing fee. So the $4 bet on Trumping paying $10, when the fees are taken out, will be $8.85. Still a nice return of more than double.

    Does anyone actually do PredictIt for the money?

    • Replies: @Jewish Conservative Race Realist
    I'm in for the $850 at .26. So I'm up about $2k right now. It isn't chump change.
  61. @Jefferson
    "Steve, it’s starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!"

    So it is Sicario. I am sure the Left Wing media wanted it to be some White trash Jesse Pinkman meth dealer type who committed the execution. But since Mexicans did it, it puts the spotlight back on immigration again.

    APRIL 26, 2016, 7:32 AM|Investigators are looking into the possibility of a Mexico drug cartel killing eight members of an Ohio family in a pre-planned execution. It has been four days since bodies of the Rhoden family were found in multiple homes. According to law enforcement, there were about 200 marijuana plants growing in some of the homes. David Begnaud reports from Pike County, Ohio.
    Authorities also said there was evidence of cockfighting found on the farms, though it’s unclear if that has any connection to the killings.
    (via CBS news)

    Hmmm…Mexicans like cockfighting…so did some rural whites though fewer these days.

  62. @Jim Sweeney
    "Skanky" wife? You should be tarred and feathered for that. Mrs. Trump appears to be a perfect lady in her appearance and speech. So what if, when working as a model, she wore bikinis and such? And she sounds intelligent and thoughtful as well.

    I think he may be tongue in cheek–‘master debater’ sounds an awful lot like ‘masturbator’.

    Cruz does give off a bit of the geek vibe–on the other hand, we know he’s produced two kids with his not-awful-looking wife, so it doesn’t quite connect.

    Unless he’s a cuck as the term was *originally* conceived…

  63. Cruz is out of the race. Not enough delegates left. Though I didn’t expect him to lose Delaware. Now Trump needs less than half of the remaining delegates to win.

  64. @Svigor
    Couple of random aphorisms:

    America deserves better than Trump, but Republican pols do not.

    People talk about Trump being stupid, uneducated, etc. Wolves are smarter than dogs. Which would you rather have watching your back?

    (Guess he could be a stupid wolf, though.)

    ‘Stupid wolf’ is quite possible, at least in the sense of possibly flying off the handle or not being well versed in current affairs. (The man is definitely not stupid per se given his skill at media manipulation.)

    Still; he lives or dies on the immigration issue, the others are opportunists. If that’s what you care about, he’s your guy.

    I’d have rather seen him push the others to the right on immigration and have one of them win who actually has been in government before. But–you don’t always get to pick.

  65. The boy from Queens is crushing!

  66. Steve, here’s something I haven’t seen discussed:

    Northeastern Republicans are used to being ignored by the national party, as well as being at a disadvantage in informal discussions in everyday life due to the area’s liberal demographics. Could Trump have an unusually big hometown boost because Northeastern Republicans are finally glad to see a Northeastern Republican making it big?

    And if so, does this put him at risk in California?

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    Romney was a Northeasterner. There is a New England/Mid-Atlantic dynamic going on.

    While it may be possible to claim that the Northeast grassroots is 'ignored' by the national party, I don't find it accurate for the rest. The establishment faction as we know it lives in the Acela Corridor, and these states almost always send liberal Rs to Congress that go out of their way to alienate the national party for their own re-elections. But the national party backed even the odious Lincoln Chaffee's primary re-election campaign in 2006.

    I don't see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate.
  67. @Anonymous
    Steve, it's starting to emerge that there is a Mexican drug cartel link to the Ohio murders. My question, is EVERYONE conspiring to get Trump elected?!!

    When a newborn baby is executed you can safely assume our South of the Border brethren are involved. Or a Jamaican gang.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    I don't think anyone younger than 16 was harmed. The killer or killers appeared to have spared the infants that were present.
    , @AndrewR
    They didn't kill the babies.
  68. • Replies: @BB753
    The guy can't do math. Is it possible for Trump not to win the 300 delegates he needs? Yes, but very unlikely. Neither Cruz or Kasich can win on their own, because there aren't enough delegates left. Even if Kasich's delegates were to vote for Cruz in the convention, they'd still need to win about 90% of the remaining delegates. (I'm still working with preliminary figures, with no delegates assigned to either one. Cruz comes in third in every state). I just don't see how the Undynamic Duo, Cruz and Kasich, can pull it out.
    Remember, Trump only needs 40 % of the remaining delegates to win.
  69. @Svigor
    Couple of random aphorisms:

    America deserves better than Trump, but Republican pols do not.

    People talk about Trump being stupid, uneducated, etc. Wolves are smarter than dogs. Which would you rather have watching your back?

    (Guess he could be a stupid wolf, though.)

    We deserve a 21st century Eisenhower. Until he appears, we roll The Donald.

    I hope that once Trump secures the nomination we start seeing some GOP policy makers come over to his camp. His team is non existent at this point.

  70. Another country ass a-hwoopin’.

  71. @Harry Baldwin
    When a newborn baby is executed you can safely assume our South of the Border brethren are involved. Or a Jamaican gang.

    I don’t think anyone younger than 16 was harmed. The killer or killers appeared to have spared the infants that were present.

  72. US unions plan attack on Donald Trump in attempt to derail presidential bid

    Concerned labor group leaders are organizing ad campaigns and phone banks as Trump’s populist message on trade and jobs draws in union voters

    “We can’t be fooled,” Richard Trumka

    Whispers of real competition in NY general election, poaching union voters…Trump is already behind the enemy’s lines. This is the kind of stuff you get when your side is winning a war.

  73. I particularly love Trump administering a serious (70+) ass kicking in Pennsylvania.

    That’s the sort of state the Republican\republican\white\conservative\nationalist\citizenist\traditionalist party–whatever shakes out in the future–*must* be able to win. If they can’t win it … they’ll be toast down the road when Texas reverts to Mexican control.

    When Texas is gone the “white party” can only be competitive if they can win the “whiter shade of pale” states in the Midwest. Hold Ohio–obviously–gain firm control of Iowa, then break into PA, WI, MI, MN. Illinois is out of reach–with its high black *and* Mexican population–but the rest are reachable when white folks start to wake up and smell the coffee.

    Trump’s had big problems with the Germanics and “nice” Midwesterners in general, the conservatives among which the “nice” factor, and their lack of exposure to real diversity, is keeping them from getting their heads outta their asses. (Several of my Iowa relatives are in this bucket, so I have at least some handle on the mentality.)

    Trump could do the cause a world of good if he could learn to express hard anti-immigration, anti-diversity (like the muslim thing) in clear cogent logical language that comes off as thoughtful “more in sorrow than in anger” and appeals to the future–“what sort of America, with what sort of fault lines, divisions and contentions do we want to leave to our kids”. Post-Trump the “citizenist party” must learn to do this to bring “nice” white people–especially white moms–on board.

    But today, the Pennsylvania result is a good sign.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Anonym
    I think 538 is now at the bargaining stage of the grief cycle.

    The North East is Making America Great Again! Trump will be the Republican nominee, and likely, the President. I think at minimum, a good wall gets built. Not sure about what else he does.

    , @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Trump’s had big problems with the Germanics and “nice” Midwesterners
     
    It really is too bad that Trump thinks that his assholery is necessary for him to succeed. I assume this is because he thinks that his behavior is some part of what is attracting his support. Of course it is his willingness to champion the middle class (immigration, jobs, foreign policy) that attracts the support.

    But even with his defects, I say, vote Trump!
  74. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I was doing some freelancing Stumpin’ for Trump this weekend in rural PA. I went to some seriously backwoods places. I would see lots Steelers signs along pro-gun signs. I would see signs with gun sights with writing below: “There is nothing in this house worth dying for.” I was seriously apprehensive knocking on these doors to talk up Trump. Every one of these kind of folks would immediately warm up to me when they saw my Trump t-shirt and literature. And every one of them would come out with pro-Trump comments that sounded like they were part of a Trump commercial. The feelings out there are STRONG for Trump.

    • Replies: @27 year old
    Great work.
  75. todays results indicate that Republican voters oppose politicians colluding against the frontrunner and pilfering delegates in back-room deals to disenfranchise the voters. Trump again did better than the polls suggested and looks like he wins almost all the delagates today….He picks up ~150 delegates, gets Trump close to 1,000 delegates tonight.

    although the media will report Trump has 955 delegates because 54 Pennsylvania delegates are not legally bounded. I wonder if they will continue with this logic during the General election in November when Pennsylvanians vote for Trump , since the electors are not legally bounded to vote for the winner of the presidential election.

    • Replies: @newrouter
    >General election in November when Pennsylvanians vote for Trump , <

    does your "donald" control he ballot boxes in say w phila?
  76. @Harry Baldwin
    When a newborn baby is executed you can safely assume our South of the Border brethren are involved. Or a Jamaican gang.

    They didn’t kill the babies.

  77. I haven’t decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.

    A lot of over-the-hill, over-educated white guys with cushy careers think they’ve got it all figured out, and are too long in the tooth to ever change. Too busy sticking their noses in the air and pooh-poohing everything and worrying about what their peers think.

    • Replies: @SFG
    A lot of over-the-hill guys (and gals) think they’ve got it all figured out, and are too long in the tooth to ever change.

    The kids, on the other hand, think everything's different this time.
    , @keypusher
    Charles Murray co-wrote The Bell Curve and sticks by it to this day (though he doesn't exactly bring it up every chance he gets). None of us except maybe Steve has any business questioning his courage or accusing him of caring too much what his peers think.
  78. @AnotherDad
    I particularly love Trump administering a serious (70+) ass kicking in Pennsylvania.

    That's the sort of state the Republican\republican\white\conservative\nationalist\citizenist\traditionalist party--whatever shakes out in the future--*must* be able to win. If they can't win it ... they'll be toast down the road when Texas reverts to Mexican control.

    When Texas is gone the "white party" can only be competitive if they can win the "whiter shade of pale" states in the Midwest. Hold Ohio--obviously--gain firm control of Iowa, then break into PA, WI, MI, MN. Illinois is out of reach--with its high black *and* Mexican population--but the rest are reachable when white folks start to wake up and smell the coffee.

    Trump's had big problems with the Germanics and "nice" Midwesterners in general, the conservatives among which the "nice" factor, and their lack of exposure to real diversity, is keeping them from getting their heads outta their asses. (Several of my Iowa relatives are in this bucket, so I have at least some handle on the mentality.)

    Trump could do the cause a world of good if he could learn to express hard anti-immigration, anti-diversity (like the muslim thing) in clear cogent logical language that comes off as thoughtful "more in sorrow than in anger" and appeals to the future--"what sort of America, with what sort of fault lines, divisions and contentions do we want to leave to our kids". Post-Trump the "citizenist party" must learn to do this to bring "nice" white people--especially white moms--on board.

    But today, the Pennsylvania result is a good sign.

    I think 538 is now at the bargaining stage of the grief cycle.

    The North East is Making America Great Again! Trump will be the Republican nominee, and likely, the President. I think at minimum, a good wall gets built. Not sure about what else he does.

    • Agree: Travis
  79. @Anonymous
    I was doing some freelancing Stumpin' for Trump this weekend in rural PA. I went to some seriously backwoods places. I would see lots Steelers signs along pro-gun signs. I would see signs with gun sights with writing below: "There is nothing in this house worth dying for." I was seriously apprehensive knocking on these doors to talk up Trump. Every one of these kind of folks would immediately warm up to me when they saw my Trump t-shirt and literature. And every one of them would come out with pro-Trump comments that sounded like they were part of a Trump commercial. The feelings out there are STRONG for Trump.

    Great work.

  80. todays results indicate that Republican voters oppose politicians colluding against the frontrunner and pilfering delegates in back-room deals to disenfranchise the voters. Trump again did better than the polls suggested and looks like he wins almost all the delagates today….He picks up ~150 delegates, gets Trump close to 1,000 delegates tonight.

    I know I lost any respect I had for Cruz when I heard him cheering his recent string of voter-free victories. I know it’s probably the best of a set of bad choices for him, but it really put me off.

  81. Today Limbaugh said Trump would win all the states, but–IIRC–not get over 50 percent and not earn more than 130 delegates. Obviously, he was wrong about Trump’s percentage, but I haven’t seen a determination of how many delegates Trump picked up.

    • Replies: @iSteveFan
    Harry,

    I recall Rush being somewhat pro-Trump back in December. But lately he seems to be pouring water on Trump. His show today seemed to be telling people that tonight doesn't matter because it was already factored into the math. He said Indiana is the real match. It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn't come out and say it like Beck.

    Does anyone else pick this up?
  82. @SteveO
    Yeah, but who else are Montgomery County Republicans going to support? Certainly not Cruz. While I'm sure there a few evangelicals here and there, most of them who were born in MontCo have surely decamped to Carroll or Frederick County by now. I can't imagine that too many are moving in to replace them. Outspoken social conservatism does not sell in the DC area.

    So, Kasich? Well, in some ways he fits the bill because he's an establishment Republican who should theoretically appeal to locals in this very Establishment county. And Trump's noisy, brash, pushy style is not popular with the polite professionals of Beltwayland. I think Kasich will run second in MontCo and maybe in Maryland as a whole. However, he's not going to win the nomination, and Washingtonians are pragmatic about this sort of thing for obvious reasons. That leaves Trump as the only choice.

    I think Trump will win all the DC burbs, along with the rest of the state, but it will be with a lot of nose-holding by voters. Frankly, I winced a bit myself when pulling the Trump lever earlier today. You can take the boy out of DC, but ...

    As I said above, it's irrelevant in the general election anyway because there's almost no chance of Trump or any Republican winning Maryland.

    Trump could win Maryland, they have a GOP Governor.

    Trump gets all the white guys who voted for Hogan (and a bunch more who didn’t care about Hogan), plus he peels off a few points worth of blacks, he could easily win MD

  83. @Travis
    todays results indicate that Republican voters oppose politicians colluding against the frontrunner and pilfering delegates in back-room deals to disenfranchise the voters. Trump again did better than the polls suggested and looks like he wins almost all the delagates today....He picks up ~150 delegates, gets Trump close to 1,000 delegates tonight.

    although the media will report Trump has 955 delegates because 54 Pennsylvania delegates are not legally bounded. I wonder if they will continue with this logic during the General election in November when Pennsylvanians vote for Trump , since the electors are not legally bounded to vote for the winner of the presidential election.

    >General election in November when Pennsylvanians vote for Trump , <

    does your "donald" control he ballot boxes in say w phila?

  84. I think 538 is now at the bargaining stage of the grief cycle.

    The North East is Making America Great Again! Trump will be the Republican nominee, and likely, the President. I think at minimum, a good wall gets built. Not sure about what else he does.

    Trump has already done enough for me. He’s kicked the table over and bloodied noses. He’s pantsed the entire political and media establishment of the USA. Pointed out their nakedness for everyone to hear. Shown the rewards that await populist candidates. Highlighted closed borders, fair trade, and political incorrectness as winners. He could win the White House and turn right around and stab us in the back on everything, and it wouldn’t change what he’s done already.

    He put a lot of blood in the water. The establishment looks weak.

    • Agree: Anonym, MEH 0910
    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    I agree with all you said about the good that Trump has done so far, but I want to see Our Nation, and hell, Europe—start turning things around. I am definitely looking forward to Trump’s upcoming showdown with Prince Hillary Stout.
  85. @Svigor

    I haven’t decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.
     
    A lot of over-the-hill, over-educated white guys with cushy careers think they've got it all figured out, and are too long in the tooth to ever change. Too busy sticking their noses in the air and pooh-poohing everything and worrying about what their peers think.

    A lot of over-the-hill guys (and gals) think they’ve got it all figured out, and are too long in the tooth to ever change.

    The kids, on the other hand, think everything’s different this time.

  86. @Svigor
    http://www.wnd.com/2016/04/emp-alert-2-n-korean-satellites-now-orbit-over-u-s/

    ?

    But yeah let's obsess over the states that Israel happens to obsess over.

    I agree, although I don’t think NK’s dumb enough to actually start something with the USA–they know we’re dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "I agree, although I don’t think NK’s dumb enough to actually start something with the USA–they know we’re dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering."

    You don't think the ugly ass Korean Marshmallow Man with the ridiculous haircut is suicidal like ISIS? You don't think he is willing to die for his anti-American political beliefs?
  87. Two years later Goode bombed MOVE HQ and burned down Osage Avenue.

    And was re-elected.

  88. @dr kill
    Jacky D, yo yo yo. I smell you, dude. we owned a crib in the 27th ward when I was in school in West Philly. Lucien Blackwell was our congressman. We went to vote in the 1983 primary when Goode and Rizzo faced off for the Dem Mayoral nomination. In our precinct the Dem vote was 791 to 3. there were 7 Rep votes total. Two years later Goode bombed MOVE HQ and burned down Osage Avenue.

    His widow, Jannie, is STILL the Councilwoman for W. Philly so the Blackwell family has held that seat continuously since 1972 – this is almost as long as the Communist Party ruled Russia.

  89. @Anonymous
    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump's skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    According to his college roommate, Ted Cruz is a verified master debater.

    ‘Ted Cruz thinks people don’t have a right to “stimulate their genitals.” I was his college roommate. This would be a new belief of his.’

    https://twitter.com/clmazin/status/720259227067920385

    • Replies: @SFG
    Told you, Jim (Sweeney)...

    Opposing masturbation is a total flop in the general election.

  90. @Blah
    http://theresurgent.com/why-todays-romp-by-trump-doesnt-matter/

    The guy can’t do math. Is it possible for Trump not to win the 300 delegates he needs? Yes, but very unlikely. Neither Cruz or Kasich can win on their own, because there aren’t enough delegates left. Even if Kasich’s delegates were to vote for Cruz in the convention, they’d still need to win about 90% of the remaining delegates. (I’m still working with preliminary figures, with no delegates assigned to either one. Cruz comes in third in every state). I just don’t see how the Undynamic Duo, Cruz and Kasich, can pull it out.
    Remember, Trump only needs 40 % of the remaining delegates to win.

  91. @The Alarmist
    Another election day? I thought they cancelled those so the criminal elite ... sorry, I meant the Party Elite can get about to the business of making hard choices for us.

    Here in Colorado, the presidential caucus was cancelled. So much for a representative democracy. Perhaps it’s time for a direct democracy, one in which we have NO stupid representatives and vote on the bills ourselves? With today’s tech, it could be done.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    We need a "natural aristocracy" that was what was envisioned by Jefferson and Adams. A society where voting is restricted upon payment of taxes, and a labor regime exists that prefers the affordable formation of the natural family.

    I do like having direct democracy, but I abhor any kind of universal suffrage.
  92. I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets

    Murray is a giant among men. Google his name, a SPLC hit piece is the second result after Wikipedia. He just DGAF and keeps retweeting iSteve and telling the truth on TV.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    If you want to get Real depressed, read Murray's book Losing Ground. I thought I knew a bit about the Great Society but I was completely floored by the radical social engineering that went on, especially the stuff that targeted blacks. http://www.amazon.com/Losing-Ground-American-Social-1950-1980/dp/0465065880
  93. @Svigor

    I haven’t decided if I am going to vote for Trump or Gary Johnson (I previously supported Rand Paul), but I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets.
     
    A lot of over-the-hill, over-educated white guys with cushy careers think they've got it all figured out, and are too long in the tooth to ever change. Too busy sticking their noses in the air and pooh-poohing everything and worrying about what their peers think.

    Charles Murray co-wrote The Bell Curve and sticks by it to this day (though he doesn’t exactly bring it up every chance he gets). None of us except maybe Steve has any business questioning his courage or accusing him of caring too much what his peers think.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Right. And Murray continues to be slandered and demonized by people who willfully distort the one chapter in The Bell Curve where he and Herrnstein talk about race, even though both are careful to say "we draw no conclusions, but here are the facts". Of course, it's the facts the Left does not like.
  94. Weird the way no one is pressing for the FBI to complete and make public the Hillary email investigation.

  95. Rhode Island is the most Catholic state in the US. Trump is very popular among northeastern Catholics, and as a Queens guy, he’s more familiar with that culture despite being German and nominally Protestant.

    http://wpri.com/2015/03/11/study-rhode-island-is-still-most-catholic-us-state/

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Rhode Island is the only state not to have ratified Prohibition. The Catholic influence goes way back.

    Actually, literal Rhode Island-- Narraganset-- was probably still Protestant in those days. So the state that defied Prohibition was Providence Plantations.
  96. Trump in particular and the GOP in general is absolutely crushing it in Delaware County and Montgomery County, PA tonight. In some townships, Trump with 50-60% of the GOP vote is beating Hillary and Bernie combined. If it was a general election, the GOP showing in those two counties would be enough to win the state, since the GOP is also outvoting in Bucks and Chester.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.
  97. @SFG
    Steve, here's something I haven't seen discussed:

    Northeastern Republicans are used to being ignored by the national party, as well as being at a disadvantage in informal discussions in everyday life due to the area's liberal demographics. Could Trump have an unusually big hometown boost because Northeastern Republicans are finally glad to see a Northeastern Republican making it big?

    And if so, does this put him at risk in California?

    Romney was a Northeasterner. There is a New England/Mid-Atlantic dynamic going on.

    While it may be possible to claim that the Northeast grassroots is ‘ignored’ by the national party, I don’t find it accurate for the rest. The establishment faction as we know it lives in the Acela Corridor, and these states almost always send liberal Rs to Congress that go out of their way to alienate the national party for their own re-elections. But the national party backed even the odious Lincoln Chaffee’s primary re-election campaign in 2006.

    I don’t see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "I don’t see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate."

    In the general election, do you see Donald Trunp at least winning the California counties that Mitt Romney won?
    , @Andrew
    "Romney was a Northeasterner. "

    Romney was born in Michigan, happened to live in Massachusetts for a while, and spends much more time in California and Utah.

    I am a born and bred and still living here Northeasterner. Just because you fail to leave our part of the country after college, that doesn't make you a Northeasterner any more than paddling over the Pacific to the US from China makes you an American.
  98. @George
    US unions plan attack on Donald Trump in attempt to derail presidential bid

    Concerned labor group leaders are organizing ad campaigns and phone banks as Trump’s populist message on trade and jobs draws in union voters

    “We can’t be fooled,” Richard Trumka

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/26/us-unions-donald-trump-us-election-2016

    #NeverTrumka

  99. @Kristen
    Here in Colorado, the presidential caucus was cancelled. So much for a representative democracy. Perhaps it's time for a direct democracy, one in which we have NO stupid representatives and vote on the bills ourselves? With today's tech, it could be done.

    We need a “natural aristocracy” that was what was envisioned by Jefferson and Adams. A society where voting is restricted upon payment of taxes, and a labor regime exists that prefers the affordable formation of the natural family.

    I do like having direct democracy, but I abhor any kind of universal suffrage.

    • Replies: @SFG
    You know, this is why I never got into neoreaction.

    Only certain people should be allowed to vote? OK. Just wait until the SJWs decide that voting patterns have to match the ethnic composition of the area--can't have black people voting less, after all. Or women.

  100. @SFG
    I agree, although I don't think NK's dumb enough to actually start something with the USA--they know we're dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering.

    “I agree, although I don’t think NK’s dumb enough to actually start something with the USA–they know we’re dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering.”

    You don’t think the ugly ass Korean Marshmallow Man with the ridiculous haircut is suicidal like ISIS? You don’t think he is willing to die for his anti-American political beliefs?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    No.
    , @SFG
    No.

    He's a despicable human being who's starved his own people, but war with the USA will end his cozy lifestyle.
  101. @Andrew
    Trump in particular and the GOP in general is absolutely crushing it in Delaware County and Montgomery County, PA tonight. In some townships, Trump with 50-60% of the GOP vote is beating Hillary and Bernie combined. If it was a general election, the GOP showing in those two counties would be enough to win the state, since the GOP is also outvoting in Bucks and Chester.

    Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    • Replies: @The most deplorable one
    Sure, but tonight the Democrats were choosing between two losers.

    Wait until Trump unleashes his attack dogs on Hillary.
    , @TK421
    The Dems have senate primary to determine who will face Toomey. That might be part of what is bring folks to the polls.
    , @Andrew
    Steve:

    "Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. "

    Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1 million voters in Pennsylvania (4.2M vs. 3.1M - 50% to 37%) and the primary is closed. Your only chance to change party is to do so a minimum of one month before the election by sending in a new registration card (no same day changes). The Democrats should be expected to outvote us in a primary. That it is as close as it is (1.41M to 1.22M right now - 8% difference) shows Republican intensity.

    The state is won by Republicans regularly attracting Independents and crossover voting (and the indfference to voting of inner city blacks in Philadelphia).

    The results in key townships in Montgomery and Delaware Counties would lead to a general election victory if it were a general election. Republicans are outvoting Democrats in Horsham, Upper Moreland, Lower Gwynedd, Montgomery, Whitpain, Upper Gwynedd, Lower Providence, Hatfield, Lower Pottsgrove Townships and Rockledge Borough in Montgomery County, all of which Obama won twice. The shift is about 5-10% right now vs. the 2012 general. Turnout is around 50% of registered voters with Independents disqualifed by the closed primary.
    , @Andrew
    "Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA."

    In Delaware County, which Kerry won 57%-43% and Obama won 60%-39%, Republicans are outvoting Democrats 51%-49%. Republicans have not won Delaware County since 1988.

    Statewide as outstanding rural areas come in, the total vote tally is narrowing now 1.26M to 1.42M. Most outstanding precincts are in York, Lancaster, Chester, Adams, Lebanon and other south central heavily Republican counties.
    , @Polynikes
    By that same token,Trump takes FL and OH in the general putting him one more state from the presidency under the '12 map.

    It'll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.
  102. @Jefferson
    "I agree, although I don’t think NK’s dumb enough to actually start something with the USA–they know we’re dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering."

    You don't think the ugly ass Korean Marshmallow Man with the ridiculous haircut is suicidal like ISIS? You don't think he is willing to die for his anti-American political beliefs?

    No.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "No"

    Are you saying Obese Jong-un is a coward?
  103. @Maj. Kong
    Romney was a Northeasterner. There is a New England/Mid-Atlantic dynamic going on.

    While it may be possible to claim that the Northeast grassroots is 'ignored' by the national party, I don't find it accurate for the rest. The establishment faction as we know it lives in the Acela Corridor, and these states almost always send liberal Rs to Congress that go out of their way to alienate the national party for their own re-elections. But the national party backed even the odious Lincoln Chaffee's primary re-election campaign in 2006.

    I don't see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate.

    “I don’t see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate.”

    In the general election, do you see Donald Trunp at least winning the California counties that Mitt Romney won?

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    I think Trump does about as well as GWB did, but I think he will win Santa Barbara and Sacramento county. He may do worse than Romney in the illegal-dependent Los Angeles and Central Valley. If the R campaign refrains from any mention of social issues beyond a boilerplate "reduce abortions" statement, they could also do 10-15 points better in the Bay Area. The key would be to emphasize abuse of H1B and EB5.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0

    I expect a result like this if Hillary is indicted, or it appears obvious that Obama scuttled the indictment.
  104. @Steve Sailer
    No.

    “No”

    Are you saying Obese Jong-un is a coward?

    • Replies: @SFG
    Yes, if by that you mean 'doesn't want to get into a war with the USA'.
  105. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    Sure, but tonight the Democrats were choosing between two losers.

    Wait until Trump unleashes his attack dogs on Hillary.

  106. @Maj. Kong
    Romney was a Northeasterner. There is a New England/Mid-Atlantic dynamic going on.

    While it may be possible to claim that the Northeast grassroots is 'ignored' by the national party, I don't find it accurate for the rest. The establishment faction as we know it lives in the Acela Corridor, and these states almost always send liberal Rs to Congress that go out of their way to alienate the national party for their own re-elections. But the national party backed even the odious Lincoln Chaffee's primary re-election campaign in 2006.

    I don't see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate.

    “Romney was a Northeasterner. ”

    Romney was born in Michigan, happened to live in Massachusetts for a while, and spends much more time in California and Utah.

    I am a born and bred and still living here Northeasterner. Just because you fail to leave our part of the country after college, that doesn’t make you a Northeasterner any more than paddling over the Pacific to the US from China makes you an American.

    • Agree: Taco
    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    Romney was elected the Governor of Massachusetts. He owns property there. If he isn't a New Englander, then neither are the Kennedys.
  107. @Jefferson
    "I agree, although I don’t think NK’s dumb enough to actually start something with the USA–they know we’re dying to have an excuse to wipe them off the map without China interfering."

    You don't think the ugly ass Korean Marshmallow Man with the ridiculous haircut is suicidal like ISIS? You don't think he is willing to die for his anti-American political beliefs?

    No.

    He’s a despicable human being who’s starved his own people, but war with the USA will end his cozy lifestyle.

  108. @Svigor

    I think 538 is now at the bargaining stage of the grief cycle.

    The North East is Making America Great Again! Trump will be the Republican nominee, and likely, the President. I think at minimum, a good wall gets built. Not sure about what else he does.
     
    Trump has already done enough for me. He's kicked the table over and bloodied noses. He's pantsed the entire political and media establishment of the USA. Pointed out their nakedness for everyone to hear. Shown the rewards that await populist candidates. Highlighted closed borders, fair trade, and political incorrectness as winners. He could win the White House and turn right around and stab us in the back on everything, and it wouldn't change what he's done already.

    He put a lot of blood in the water. The establishment looks weak.

    I agree with all you said about the good that Trump has done so far, but I want to see Our Nation, and hell, Europe—start turning things around. I am definitely looking forward to Trump’s upcoming showdown with Prince Hillary Stout.

  109. @Maj. Kong
    We need a "natural aristocracy" that was what was envisioned by Jefferson and Adams. A society where voting is restricted upon payment of taxes, and a labor regime exists that prefers the affordable formation of the natural family.

    I do like having direct democracy, but I abhor any kind of universal suffrage.

    You know, this is why I never got into neoreaction.

    Only certain people should be allowed to vote? OK. Just wait until the SJWs decide that voting patterns have to match the ethnic composition of the area–can’t have black people voting less, after all. Or women.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    That argument was the basis of the DOJ's support of continuing the prior formula for Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

    We already claim that minors are incapable of exercising the franchise, and considering that the ACA allows one to be on parental insurance until 26, we arguably should raise the voting age.
  110. @Thagomizer
    According to his college roommate, Ted Cruz is a verified master debater.

    'Ted Cruz thinks people don't have a right to "stimulate their genitals." I was his college roommate. This would be a new belief of his.'

    https://twitter.com/clmazin/status/720259227067920385

    Told you, Jim (Sweeney)…

    Opposing masturbation is a total flop in the general election.

  111. @Harry Baldwin
    Today Limbaugh said Trump would win all the states, but--IIRC--not get over 50 percent and not earn more than 130 delegates. Obviously, he was wrong about Trump's percentage, but I haven't seen a determination of how many delegates Trump picked up.

    Harry,

    I recall Rush being somewhat pro-Trump back in December. But lately he seems to be pouring water on Trump. His show today seemed to be telling people that tonight doesn’t matter because it was already factored into the math. He said Indiana is the real match. It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn’t come out and say it like Beck.

    Does anyone else pick this up?

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    I agree with your analysis. Rush seemed genuinely pro-Trump for quite awhile, while maintaining his position that he doesn't endorse anyone in the primaries. Lately he seems to be promoting/defending Cruz more. I think the turning point came when Trump said he favored higher taxes on rich people.
  112. Steve,

    Pennsylvania has a million more registered Dems than Republicans (~4 million dems ~ 3 million repubs)

    I think you underestimate Trump’s chances in PA just a little bit.

    If any of the following happen before November, Trump likely wins:

    Recession
    Terrorist attack in the United States or a major terrorist attack in Europe
    Hillary Indicted
    Hillary has another stroke

    What are the odds that less than two of those happen in the next 6 months?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    , @Travis
    good points. Trump will do much better in Pennsylvania against Hillary than many expect. Black turnout will be lower, and Hillary will not get 90% of the Black vote like Obama. while Trump could get 15% of the Black vote in addition to getting many republicans to the polls who state home with Romney on the ticket.
    , @Glossy
    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won't cut the flow of oil until they're told to do so. And they won't be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you've mentioned - an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won't be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It's possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn't matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they're not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she's had one in the past. I've seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I'm saying this as someone who's rooting for Trump. But you've got to face the facts - Hillary appears to be in great shape.

  113. @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    The Dems have senate primary to determine who will face Toomey. That might be part of what is bring folks to the polls.

  114. @Jefferson
    "I’m done with Trump"

    How can you be done with Trump when you were never pro-Trump in the first place.

    Are you calling me a cuckservative troll?

    You really will find me saying nice things about Trump if you read my past posts here. In fact I’m sorta happy for him after his results today.

    I still like what he represents. I just don’t like, or trust, him anymore.

  115. @Taco
    Steve,

    Pennsylvania has a million more registered Dems than Republicans (~4 million dems ~ 3 million repubs)

    I think you underestimate Trump's chances in PA just a little bit.

    If any of the following happen before November, Trump likely wins:

    Recession
    Terrorist attack in the United States or a major terrorist attack in Europe
    Hillary Indicted
    Hillary has another stroke

    What are the odds that less than two of those happen in the next 6 months?

    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there’s an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there’s an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They’ll be coming for the Donald with everything they’ve got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    Steve are you saying you don't think there will be any October surprises for Crooked Hillary Hildabeast? She has a shitload of skeletons in her closet, likely way more than Barack Hussein Obama.
    , @Harry Baldwin
    Trump might withdraw in July after hearing that Hillary's campaign was scheming to smear his daughter with a computer-altered photograph and to disrupt her wedding.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
     
    Trump's virtue is in exposing the sham that the Democrat/Republican system is.

    Trump is not going to correct the institutional defects, the rule of the administrative state, the shrinking of Congress into a yipping lapdog for moneyed interests. And if you are betting you need to bet on him doing a Jesse Ventura - he'll move left to please the bobble-heads we see on TV and he'll be a one-term president (if he gets elected). We will all hate him, and so will the bobble-heads (cf. Nixon).

    But that is not the point. There are polished, intelligent, self-serving pols that will see that even with the legion of defects possessed by Trump he was able to get this far (and, if he plays his cards right, elected to the most powerful office on the face of the planet) and that someone without Trump's defects will be able to win the presidency.

    Down-ticket there will be a host of others that notice the same thing. The Stupid Party will get smarter, or it will die and be replaced by a party that accommodates those who sense the wind change.

    Trump is an asshole, but he moved the window in the right direction - and moved it significantly. No one else has shown that capability since Reagan.

    Vote Trump!
    , @David In TN
    "The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House."

    And even the HBO movie admitted Thomas didn't lay a hand on her. With a total lack of irony, HBO shows a Ted Kennedy female staffer orchestrating the campaign against Clarence Thomas.

    Speaking of Ted Kennedy, for those who weren't around back then, or haven't studied the Chappaquiddick Affair, his actions (or lack of) were far, far worse than generally known.

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they've got.

    , @Buzz Mohawk

    ...or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?
     
    Tax returns list income, not assets. The guy could be worth ten billion dollars and only bring in a few bucks in a given year, so some people might think he's "not really all that rich." I know I don't have to explain this, but apparently I do have to explain this.

    More likely, his returns show strategies and arrangements he'd rather the public not see. Either that, or he's concerned the average person will make exactly the type of uninformed conclusion described above.


    ...don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
     
    Okay, then. We'll just give up and keep griping about the same stuff we always do here, and we'll wait around for a perfect Superman candidate to come down from heaven and fix things.

    A defeatist attitude, learned helplessness, doesn't solve anything. It's time to at least try to jump out of the box we're in.

    Here in Connecticut, we jumped pretty high today. In my own town, Trump got more votes than Clinton. He got more than anybody, here in an affluent, blue state town.

    The "smart" people have been wrong every time about Candidate Trump. No one has any reason to believe that will change. The heels Mrs. Clinton stands so high upon were designed by Achilles.

    , @Andrew
    " or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?"

    More likely that he claims little income and pays little taxes (thanks to depreciation and other real estate write-downs).

    The idea that Trump is not rich is preposterous. Besides all the buildings and resorts he owns, he flies around in a full size jet (a 757 - not a Gulfstream or Lear jet), owns a huge yacht, and owns multiple residences worth tens of million each. You can't maintain that lifestyle without very big money coming in off even bigger assets.
    , @Anonymous
    Looks like negative nelly Steve Sailer needs to get Trump's recommended book, The Power of Positive Thinking, by Norman Vincent Peale (Trump's pastor while growing up).
    , @SFG
    Agree. He's more valuable for where he pushed the Overton window. Future GOP candidates will have to take a harder line on immigration, and populism will be a less dirty word. The next guy will crack down on illegal immigration without claiming Mexicans are rapists.

    He's Goldwater--he won't be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.
  116. @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    Steve:

    “Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. ”

    Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1 million voters in Pennsylvania (4.2M vs. 3.1M – 50% to 37%) and the primary is closed. Your only chance to change party is to do so a minimum of one month before the election by sending in a new registration card (no same day changes). The Democrats should be expected to outvote us in a primary. That it is as close as it is (1.41M to 1.22M right now – 8% difference) shows Republican intensity.

    The state is won by Republicans regularly attracting Independents and crossover voting (and the indfference to voting of inner city blacks in Philadelphia).

    The results in key townships in Montgomery and Delaware Counties would lead to a general election victory if it were a general election. Republicans are outvoting Democrats in Horsham, Upper Moreland, Lower Gwynedd, Montgomery, Whitpain, Upper Gwynedd, Lower Providence, Hatfield, Lower Pottsgrove Townships and Rockledge Borough in Montgomery County, all of which Obama won twice. The shift is about 5-10% right now vs. the 2012 general. Turnout is around 50% of registered voters with Independents disqualifed by the closed primary.

    • Replies: @countenance
    That's the point I'm trying to make. You can't compare total D turnout and total R turnout on one day and draw any conclusions from that for November. What I have been doing this season state by state is comparing Republican turnout this year to Republican turnout in 2012 and also 2008, and then comparing Democrat turnout in 2016 to Democrat turnout in 2008 (2012 was an incumbent year for the Democrats.) And what I have found is that in most states, Republican turnout is anywhere between solidly and way higher than 16 delta 12 and delta 8, and Democrat turnout is significantly down if not way down 16 delta 8. I think you can draw more November implications from the trend deltas than the static R/D comparison. And, as you showed, even more crucial than the statewide deltas are the important swing county and swing township deltas.
  117. Ed says:
    @SteveO
    Yeah, but who else are Montgomery County Republicans going to support? Certainly not Cruz. While I'm sure there a few evangelicals here and there, most of them who were born in MontCo have surely decamped to Carroll or Frederick County by now. I can't imagine that too many are moving in to replace them. Outspoken social conservatism does not sell in the DC area.

    So, Kasich? Well, in some ways he fits the bill because he's an establishment Republican who should theoretically appeal to locals in this very Establishment county. And Trump's noisy, brash, pushy style is not popular with the polite professionals of Beltwayland. I think Kasich will run second in MontCo and maybe in Maryland as a whole. However, he's not going to win the nomination, and Washingtonians are pragmatic about this sort of thing for obvious reasons. That leaves Trump as the only choice.

    I think Trump will win all the DC burbs, along with the rest of the state, but it will be with a lot of nose-holding by voters. Frankly, I winced a bit myself when pulling the Trump lever earlier today. You can take the boy out of DC, but ...

    As I said above, it's irrelevant in the general election anyway because there's almost no chance of Trump or any Republican winning Maryland.

    According to MSNBC, the only Congressional district in any of the states that voted tonight that Trump might lose is the 8th Maryland district. This district includes part of Montgomery County and a bunch of rural Appalachian countries along the Potomac Valley. This district might still be carried by Kasich.

    I assume the rural Appalachian voters are going to Trump, so if Kasich has a chance of winning the district he probably is carrying Montgomery County.

    • Replies: @Andrew
    Kasich is losing Montgomery County, MD, but he may be winning the central core of the county, which is the key.
  118. @Anonymous
    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump's skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    Up your meds. Significantly.

  119. @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    “Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA.”

    In Delaware County, which Kerry won 57%-43% and Obama won 60%-39%, Republicans are outvoting Democrats 51%-49%. Republicans have not won Delaware County since 1988.

    Statewide as outstanding rural areas come in, the total vote tally is narrowing now 1.26M to 1.42M. Most outstanding precincts are in York, Lancaster, Chester, Adams, Lebanon and other south central heavily Republican counties.

    • Replies: @Alex7
    With 99% of the vote counted in Pennsylvania, the total Democrats' vote is about 1653K to the Republicans' 1573K or a slight 51.2-48.8 Dem advantage in a closed primary. Its odd the the GOP would beat the Dems in turnout in Delaware County (where Obama won 60% in 2012) but not win the turnout for the state. However, the Western PA counties seem to explain why. The Democrats beat the Republicans in Allegheny County 220K to 120K in turnout or roughly 65-35. (Obama won that county in 2012, but with 56.5% of the vote.) Like the other counties around it, Allegheny has been trending Republican since NAFTA, so I suspect a lot of blue collar Democrats who voted for Bernie will vote for Trump in the fall. Overall, I like Trump's chances in Pennsylvania.

    It should also be noted that Dem turnout was down 30% in PA compared to 2008 and that Hillary received 350,000 less votes in 2016 than she did in 2008's primary. In fact, Obama '08 in PA's primary received more votes that Hillary '16.

  120. @Ed
    According to MSNBC, the only Congressional district in any of the states that voted tonight that Trump might lose is the 8th Maryland district. This district includes part of Montgomery County and a bunch of rural Appalachian countries along the Potomac Valley. This district might still be carried by Kasich.

    I assume the rural Appalachian voters are going to Trump, so if Kasich has a chance of winning the district he probably is carrying Montgomery County.

    Kasich is losing Montgomery County, MD, but he may be winning the central core of the county, which is the key.

    • Replies: @SteveO
    Trump won Montgomery County, MD, but by the lowest percentage in the state. With 99% of the votes counted:

    Trump 39%
    Kasich 35%
    Cruz 22%

    (The source for these numbers and the PA primary results below is the current cnn.com tally.)

    Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Trump also won every county, but the county where he performed worst was Chester County - McMansion country and the richest county in the state. This should raise a little concern with Trump supporters, given that ChesCo was the only Philadelphia area county to go for Romney - albeit barely - in 2012.

    Chester County, PA 2012 Presidential election (source: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/pennsylvania/):

    Romney, 49.7%, 123,280 votes
    Obama, 49.2%, 122,232 votes

    Chester County, PA 2016 Republican Primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 47%, 35,577
    Kasich, 31%, 23,855
    Cruz, 20%, 14,996

    In neighboring Montgomery County (PA - same name, different state), second richest in the state, Trump also scored less than 50%. Chester and Montgomery are the only two counties in Pennsylvania where Trump earned less than 50% of the vote.

    Montgomery County, PA 2016 Republican primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 48%, 51,444
    Kasich, 29%, 31,228
    Cruz, 20%, 21,395

    (Obama carried MontCo 57%-42% in 2012.)

    The softness of Trump support in these key counties is something to keep an eye on. Overall this was a tremendous night for the Donald, but it's still a long, tough road to the Capitol steps on January 20, 2017, and a lot of it lies through places like the Philadelphia suburbs. (The same can be said for the Northern Virginia DC suburbs, which will be vital in winning that state.)

    The underlying story hasn't changed since the last big round of primaries: Trump must find a way to broaden his appeal with middle- and upper-middle-class voters. The best way to do that is to tone down the bluster, stop mocking people like a middle-schooler, and sound like a President, not a reality TV star.
  121. Ed says:

    Trump and Clinton are the presumptive major party nominees after tonight. This site has an interactive game, which is pretty fun, about the Trump-Clinton 2016 campaign:

    https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/

    (Click on 2016a or select it from the drop down menu. You may have to donate $5, which is worth it. They still give you four teaser elections for free)

  122. @International Jew
    I'm done with Trump. He doesn't even talk about immigration much anymore. Yeah, "the wall". That's all that's left, and it wouldn't be enough without interior enforcement, H1b reduction, rapefugee repulsion, etc.

    BTW before y'all jump all over me for "hypocrisy", I still think he's the best candidate on Israel.

    Do you really think Trump is too stupid to know how he got here? If he doesn’t play the immigration card he loses the general election even if he gets the Republican nod.

    Trump is a cynical opportunist, but he is not stupid.

    Vote Trump!

  123. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Steve are you saying you don’t think there will be any October surprises for Crooked Hillary Hildabeast? She has a shitload of skeletons in her closet, likely way more than Barack Hussein Obama.

  124. @iSteveFan
    Harry,

    I recall Rush being somewhat pro-Trump back in December. But lately he seems to be pouring water on Trump. His show today seemed to be telling people that tonight doesn't matter because it was already factored into the math. He said Indiana is the real match. It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn't come out and say it like Beck.

    Does anyone else pick this up?

    I agree with your analysis. Rush seemed genuinely pro-Trump for quite awhile, while maintaining his position that he doesn’t endorse anyone in the primaries. Lately he seems to be promoting/defending Cruz more. I think the turning point came when Trump said he favored higher taxes on rich people.

  125. @AnotherDad
    I particularly love Trump administering a serious (70+) ass kicking in Pennsylvania.

    That's the sort of state the Republican\republican\white\conservative\nationalist\citizenist\traditionalist party--whatever shakes out in the future--*must* be able to win. If they can't win it ... they'll be toast down the road when Texas reverts to Mexican control.

    When Texas is gone the "white party" can only be competitive if they can win the "whiter shade of pale" states in the Midwest. Hold Ohio--obviously--gain firm control of Iowa, then break into PA, WI, MI, MN. Illinois is out of reach--with its high black *and* Mexican population--but the rest are reachable when white folks start to wake up and smell the coffee.

    Trump's had big problems with the Germanics and "nice" Midwesterners in general, the conservatives among which the "nice" factor, and their lack of exposure to real diversity, is keeping them from getting their heads outta their asses. (Several of my Iowa relatives are in this bucket, so I have at least some handle on the mentality.)

    Trump could do the cause a world of good if he could learn to express hard anti-immigration, anti-diversity (like the muslim thing) in clear cogent logical language that comes off as thoughtful "more in sorrow than in anger" and appeals to the future--"what sort of America, with what sort of fault lines, divisions and contentions do we want to leave to our kids". Post-Trump the "citizenist party" must learn to do this to bring "nice" white people--especially white moms--on board.

    But today, the Pennsylvania result is a good sign.

    Trump’s had big problems with the Germanics and “nice” Midwesterners

    It really is too bad that Trump thinks that his assholery is necessary for him to succeed. I assume this is because he thinks that his behavior is some part of what is attracting his support. Of course it is his willingness to champion the middle class (immigration, jobs, foreign policy) that attracts the support.

    But even with his defects, I say, vote Trump!

    • Agree: Malcolm X-Lax
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    I've concluded that that unfettered aspect of his personality that allows him to utter politically incorrect truths like we're not getting Mexico's best, President Bush was a disaster, we would be better off with Saddam Hussein still running Iraq, and maybe we should close down NATO goes along with his tendency to say things like Carly Fiorina is unattractive and he has no problem with his penis size. You get the complete package, as it were.
  126. @Taco
    Steve,

    Pennsylvania has a million more registered Dems than Republicans (~4 million dems ~ 3 million repubs)

    I think you underestimate Trump's chances in PA just a little bit.

    If any of the following happen before November, Trump likely wins:

    Recession
    Terrorist attack in the United States or a major terrorist attack in Europe
    Hillary Indicted
    Hillary has another stroke

    What are the odds that less than two of those happen in the next 6 months?

    good points. Trump will do much better in Pennsylvania against Hillary than many expect. Black turnout will be lower, and Hillary will not get 90% of the Black vote like Obama. while Trump could get 15% of the Black vote in addition to getting many republicans to the polls who state home with Romney on the ticket.

    • Replies: @Ed
    I went to the Wikipedia article on the 2012 election and got their list of the states where the margin of victory was under 10% last time. These are the swing states:

    Donk:

    Florida, 0.88%
    Ohio, 2.98%
    Virginia, 3.87%
    Colorado, 5.37%
    Pennsylvania, 5.39%
    New Hampshire, 5.58%
    Iowa, 5.81%
    Nevada, 6.68%
    Wisconsin, 6.94%
    Minnesota, 7.69%
    Michigan, 9.50%

    GOP:

    North Carolina, 2.04%
    Georgia, 7.82%
    Arizona, 9.06%
    Missouri, 9.38%

    With the other states, if they flip, its some sort of national popular vote blow-out, probably after some real or manufactured scandal. Though Utah is a special case.

    But in a close race, I don't see Trump having to play defense anywhere. The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.

    Of the states on the Donk list, I expect that he will have problems with Virginia (a third of the state's population is in the DC metro area), and the upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, though trade issues will help him in Michigan. But he will get a regional advantage in the Northeast, which Romney didn't have despite being Governor of Massachusetts for a few years since he really comes from corporate-land.

    So he should target heavily Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, as well as the prototypical swing states of Florida (where he maintains a residence) and Ohio. New Hampshire doesn't have many electoral votes, but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message.
  127. @Steve Sailer
    Okay but the Democrats' turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. Trump and Hillary are doing about equally well within their parties, so the simplest turnout model says the Democrats are likely to carry PA in November.

    By that same token,Trump takes FL and OH in the general putting him one more state from the presidency under the ’12 map.

    It’ll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    • Replies: @Anonym
    It’ll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    Provided that Trump keeps basically doing what he is doing, it will either be close to 50/50 or a landslide in his favor. I don't see Hillary destroying Trump. I think it will be closer to a landslide, Trump's favor.

    Hillary is no Thatcher. She is no Joan of Arc. There are some good women leaders, those who both men and women will rally around. But Hillary strikes me as the sort of woman that a lot of women would hate to have as a boss, a more typical sort of woman. She can't even follow the directions of her own security staff as to how to handle security issues. Do as I say, not as I do. Maybe it would work if Hillary's own history was of success after success that justifies prima donna type behavior. It seems like she had a respectable career prior to meeting Bill, but a lot of people have similar careers.
    , @TheJester
    It is obscene that Hillary is campaigning against herself and few people notice. She claims that she can fix the two key policy snafus that the Clinton's administration drove through Congress. Those are NAFTA and the repeal of the Depression-era regulations that kept Wall Street caged. I remember Hillary campaigning for NAFTA. As I recall, she promised NAFTA would make America and Mexico wealthy because Mexicans would buy our high-tech products and we would buy their .... (sorry, I can't recall this part). Are Democratic voters the least informed voters on planet earth? Oh, I know, Hillary campaigning for the right for transgendered people to use their bathroom-of-choice distracts Democratic voters from the issues that attack their vested interests. You know, people feel strongly about transgendered toilet habits.

    I loved Bill's rejoinder when asked about his repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act (in the vernacular): "Well, that was then, and it appeared to be a good idea at the time. But now is now ...."

    "What changed, Bill?"

    "What it takes to get elected."
  128. @Andrew
    Steve:

    "Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA. "

    Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1 million voters in Pennsylvania (4.2M vs. 3.1M - 50% to 37%) and the primary is closed. Your only chance to change party is to do so a minimum of one month before the election by sending in a new registration card (no same day changes). The Democrats should be expected to outvote us in a primary. That it is as close as it is (1.41M to 1.22M right now - 8% difference) shows Republican intensity.

    The state is won by Republicans regularly attracting Independents and crossover voting (and the indfference to voting of inner city blacks in Philadelphia).

    The results in key townships in Montgomery and Delaware Counties would lead to a general election victory if it were a general election. Republicans are outvoting Democrats in Horsham, Upper Moreland, Lower Gwynedd, Montgomery, Whitpain, Upper Gwynedd, Lower Providence, Hatfield, Lower Pottsgrove Townships and Rockledge Borough in Montgomery County, all of which Obama won twice. The shift is about 5-10% right now vs. the 2012 general. Turnout is around 50% of registered voters with Independents disqualifed by the closed primary.

    That’s the point I’m trying to make. You can’t compare total D turnout and total R turnout on one day and draw any conclusions from that for November. What I have been doing this season state by state is comparing Republican turnout this year to Republican turnout in 2012 and also 2008, and then comparing Democrat turnout in 2016 to Democrat turnout in 2008 (2012 was an incumbent year for the Democrats.) And what I have found is that in most states, Republican turnout is anywhere between solidly and way higher than 16 delta 12 and delta 8, and Democrat turnout is significantly down if not way down 16 delta 8. I think you can draw more November implications from the trend deltas than the static R/D comparison. And, as you showed, even more crucial than the statewide deltas are the important swing county and swing township deltas.

    • Replies: @Andrew
    "That’s the point I’m trying to make. You can’t compare total D turnout and total R turnout on one day and draw any conclusions from that for November. "

    You can if its an open primary with very high turnout compared to the last general election. I.e. Michigan (63% of 2012), Wisconsin (78% of 2012), Missouri (63% of 2012), Virginia (56% of 2012), Ohio (75% of 2012). Closed primaries are harder to analyze.

    "And what I have found is that in most states, Republican turnout is anywhere between solidly and way higher than 16 delta 12 and delta 8, and Democrat turnout is significantly down if not way down 16 delta 8."

    Republican turnout is at an all time record, Democrats are depressed down, despite Bernie.
  129. @SFG
    Does anyone actually do PredictIt for the money?

    I’m in for the $850 at .26. So I’m up about $2k right now. It isn’t chump change.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    You may expect a call from Neal Gabler shortly. Just noticed his dog is limping, needs to borrow $400.
  130. Chris Van Hollen fairly easily won MD-SEN-D, turnout was pretty low in Baltimore City and Bell Curve County, and Donna Edwards didn’t win Baltimore and Bell Curve with the monolithic margins she would have needed. Meanwhile, Montgomery County had a big turnout and 76% for CVH, not surprising, because that’s in his Congressional district. As I can personally attest, when Congressmen run for statewide office, they have a home field advantage in their own district, and if their district happens to be where the motivated voters of their own party who are pretty well to do can be found, they’ll win the primary. In my case, and analogy, it was MO-SEN-R in 2012, my boss was Todd Akin, and he did hold down what was MO-2, the district with all the motivated monied and ideologically charged Republican partisans.

    Baltimore Mayor race was today. Deray McKesson finished in 6th place with 2.5%, and Nick Mosby, Marilyn Mosby’s husband, finished in 7th with 1.4%. Because, black lives matter.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Baltimore Mayor race was today. Deray McKesson finished in 6th place with 2.5%,"

    Deray McKesson is openly Homosexual, unlike Hildabeast who is still in the closet.

    If Deray had stayed in the closet, he could have won the old Black church lady vote in Baltimore.

    Old Black church ladies are still not SWPL on the issue of Homosexuality.

  131. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Trump might withdraw in July after hearing that Hillary’s campaign was scheming to smear his daughter with a computer-altered photograph and to disrupt her wedding.

  132. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Trump’s virtue is in exposing the sham that the Democrat/Republican system is.

    Trump is not going to correct the institutional defects, the rule of the administrative state, the shrinking of Congress into a yipping lapdog for moneyed interests. And if you are betting you need to bet on him doing a Jesse Ventura – he’ll move left to please the bobble-heads we see on TV and he’ll be a one-term president (if he gets elected). We will all hate him, and so will the bobble-heads (cf. Nixon).

    But that is not the point. There are polished, intelligent, self-serving pols that will see that even with the legion of defects possessed by Trump he was able to get this far (and, if he plays his cards right, elected to the most powerful office on the face of the planet) and that someone without Trump’s defects will be able to win the presidency.

    Down-ticket there will be a host of others that notice the same thing. The Stupid Party will get smarter, or it will die and be replaced by a party that accommodates those who sense the wind change.

    Trump is an asshole, but he moved the window in the right direction – and moved it significantly. No one else has shown that capability since Reagan.

    Vote Trump!

  133. @Charles Erwin Wilson

    Trump’s had big problems with the Germanics and “nice” Midwesterners
     
    It really is too bad that Trump thinks that his assholery is necessary for him to succeed. I assume this is because he thinks that his behavior is some part of what is attracting his support. Of course it is his willingness to champion the middle class (immigration, jobs, foreign policy) that attracts the support.

    But even with his defects, I say, vote Trump!

    I’ve concluded that that unfettered aspect of his personality that allows him to utter politically incorrect truths like we’re not getting Mexico’s best, President Bush was a disaster, we would be better off with Saddam Hussein still running Iraq, and maybe we should close down NATO goes along with his tendency to say things like Carly Fiorina is unattractive and he has no problem with his penis size. You get the complete package, as it were.

    • Agree: Das
  134. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    “The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House.”

    And even the HBO movie admitted Thomas didn’t lay a hand on her. With a total lack of irony, HBO shows a Ted Kennedy female staffer orchestrating the campaign against Clarence Thomas.

    Speaking of Ted Kennedy, for those who weren’t around back then, or haven’t studied the Chappaquiddick Affair, his actions (or lack of) were far, far worse than generally known.

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they’ve got.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they’ve got.
     
    No, the MSM will love The Donald. They aren't going to write themselves out of the new Camelot. The MSM is about to become very, very conservative, in the sense of being a supporter of The Donald and all his works.
    , @LondonBob
    Seen claims the Chappaquiddick Affair was a warning to Ted not to follow his brothers into an early grave. Plausible.
  135. And once again, the guy who coined the term “Occam’s Butterknufe” is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have “problems” in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.

    • Replies: @Das
    "Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA."

    Right. The key thing is that *Ted Cruz* is Trump's major competitor. Even if you are skeptical of Trump's chances, this primary is not a choice between Trump and an electable Republican.

    Cruz embodies every negative Republican stereotype. Hillary would absolutely love to run a scorched earth campaign against the Conniving Extremist Bible Thumper.

    So unless you just really love Ted Cruz's brand of politics over Trump's, there's no reason to vote for him.
    , @Jefferson
    "Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors."

    Too bad the idea of Hildabeast as POTUS does not give Steve the vapors.

    Maybe Steve believes 4 or 8 years of Hildabeast would not be bad for White America. Maybe Steve believes Hildabeast is just putting on an act and that she is not really an anti-White social justice warrior.
    , @SFG
    Wanting a guy to win and thinking he can win are two separate things.
  136. @Anonymous
    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump's skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    I bet Ted Cruz is the winner, no matter what.Why?

    Because Ted is a master debater. He will master debate all over Hillary. He has already master debated the issue of Trump’s skanky wife.

    In short, in the eyes of this conservative Christian constitutionalist, the winner must be a master debater.

    I admittedly snickered at this.

    Anyways…whether or not Ted Cruz is a master debater, it means little at this point due to a lack of debates.

  137. Ed says:
    @Travis
    good points. Trump will do much better in Pennsylvania against Hillary than many expect. Black turnout will be lower, and Hillary will not get 90% of the Black vote like Obama. while Trump could get 15% of the Black vote in addition to getting many republicans to the polls who state home with Romney on the ticket.

    I went to the Wikipedia article on the 2012 election and got their list of the states where the margin of victory was under 10% last time. These are the swing states:

    Donk:

    Florida, 0.88%
    Ohio, 2.98%
    Virginia, 3.87%
    Colorado, 5.37%
    Pennsylvania, 5.39%
    New Hampshire, 5.58%
    Iowa, 5.81%
    Nevada, 6.68%
    Wisconsin, 6.94%
    Minnesota, 7.69%
    Michigan, 9.50%

    GOP:

    North Carolina, 2.04%
    Georgia, 7.82%
    Arizona, 9.06%
    Missouri, 9.38%

    With the other states, if they flip, its some sort of national popular vote blow-out, probably after some real or manufactured scandal. Though Utah is a special case.

    But in a close race, I don’t see Trump having to play defense anywhere. The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.

    Of the states on the Donk list, I expect that he will have problems with Virginia (a third of the state’s population is in the DC metro area), and the upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, though trade issues will help him in Michigan. But he will get a regional advantage in the Northeast, which Romney didn’t have despite being Governor of Massachusetts for a few years since he really comes from corporate-land.

    So he should target heavily Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, as well as the prototypical swing states of Florida (where he maintains a residence) and Ohio. New Hampshire doesn’t have many electoral votes, but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message.

    • Replies: @Andrew
    "but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message"

    Iowa is the swing state most conducive to Trump. It has more manufacturing and manufacturing losses, it has more illegals, its closer to being won every time, and it lacks a big city Country Club Republican set who might tip towards Hillary.
    , @iSteveFan

    The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.
     
    Missouri is interesting for sure. In 2008 McCain beat Obama by 3900 votes out of 3 million cast.

    In this years primary, both Hillary and Trump won by extremely slim margins. Hillary won by only 1500 votes. Trump won by only 1700 votes.
  138. @countenance
    Chris Van Hollen fairly easily won MD-SEN-D, turnout was pretty low in Baltimore City and Bell Curve County, and Donna Edwards didn't win Baltimore and Bell Curve with the monolithic margins she would have needed. Meanwhile, Montgomery County had a big turnout and 76% for CVH, not surprising, because that's in his Congressional district. As I can personally attest, when Congressmen run for statewide office, they have a home field advantage in their own district, and if their district happens to be where the motivated voters of their own party who are pretty well to do can be found, they'll win the primary. In my case, and analogy, it was MO-SEN-R in 2012, my boss was Todd Akin, and he did hold down what was MO-2, the district with all the motivated monied and ideologically charged Republican partisans.

    Baltimore Mayor race was today. Deray McKesson finished in 6th place with 2.5%, and Nick Mosby, Marilyn Mosby's husband, finished in 7th with 1.4%. Because, black lives matter.

    “Baltimore Mayor race was today. Deray McKesson finished in 6th place with 2.5%,”

    Deray McKesson is openly Homosexual, unlike Hildabeast who is still in the closet.

    If Deray had stayed in the closet, he could have won the old Black church lady vote in Baltimore.

    Old Black church ladies are still not SWPL on the issue of Homosexuality.

  139. @countenance
    That's the point I'm trying to make. You can't compare total D turnout and total R turnout on one day and draw any conclusions from that for November. What I have been doing this season state by state is comparing Republican turnout this year to Republican turnout in 2012 and also 2008, and then comparing Democrat turnout in 2016 to Democrat turnout in 2008 (2012 was an incumbent year for the Democrats.) And what I have found is that in most states, Republican turnout is anywhere between solidly and way higher than 16 delta 12 and delta 8, and Democrat turnout is significantly down if not way down 16 delta 8. I think you can draw more November implications from the trend deltas than the static R/D comparison. And, as you showed, even more crucial than the statewide deltas are the important swing county and swing township deltas.

    “That’s the point I’m trying to make. You can’t compare total D turnout and total R turnout on one day and draw any conclusions from that for November. ”

    You can if its an open primary with very high turnout compared to the last general election. I.e. Michigan (63% of 2012), Wisconsin (78% of 2012), Missouri (63% of 2012), Virginia (56% of 2012), Ohio (75% of 2012). Closed primaries are harder to analyze.

    “And what I have found is that in most states, Republican turnout is anywhere between solidly and way higher than 16 delta 12 and delta 8, and Democrat turnout is significantly down if not way down 16 delta 8.”

    Republican turnout is at an all time record, Democrats are depressed down, despite Bernie.

  140. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    …or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?

    Tax returns list income, not assets. The guy could be worth ten billion dollars and only bring in a few bucks in a given year, so some people might think he’s “not really all that rich.” I know I don’t have to explain this, but apparently I do have to explain this.

    More likely, his returns show strategies and arrangements he’d rather the public not see. Either that, or he’s concerned the average person will make exactly the type of uninformed conclusion described above.

    …don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Okay, then. We’ll just give up and keep griping about the same stuff we always do here, and we’ll wait around for a perfect Superman candidate to come down from heaven and fix things.

    A defeatist attitude, learned helplessness, doesn’t solve anything. It’s time to at least try to jump out of the box we’re in.

    Here in Connecticut, we jumped pretty high today. In my own town, Trump got more votes than Clinton. He got more than anybody, here in an affluent, blue state town.

    The “smart” people have been wrong every time about Candidate Trump. No one has any reason to believe that will change. The heels Mrs. Clinton stands so high upon were designed by Achilles.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    He couldn't just bring in a few bucks per year and have billions in real estate, since you have to pay property taxes on real estate every year out of your income. You can estimate net worth with income.
  141. @Taco
    Steve,

    Pennsylvania has a million more registered Dems than Republicans (~4 million dems ~ 3 million repubs)

    I think you underestimate Trump's chances in PA just a little bit.

    If any of the following happen before November, Trump likely wins:

    Recession
    Terrorist attack in the United States or a major terrorist attack in Europe
    Hillary Indicted
    Hillary has another stroke

    What are the odds that less than two of those happen in the next 6 months?

    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won’t cut the flow of oil until they’re told to do so. And they won’t be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you’ve mentioned – an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won’t be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It’s possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn’t matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they’re not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she’s had one in the past. I’ve seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I’m saying this as someone who’s rooting for Trump. But you’ve got to face the facts – Hillary appears to be in great shape.

    • Replies: @5371
    [an economic downturn ... So there likely won’t be one this year.]

    One looks to be starting already. Consult "percent change from year ago" on the following time series:

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS
    , @unpc downunder
    Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I'm surprised Alex Jones hasn't come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she's ended up an establishment Democrat.
    , @LondonBob
    US economy has barely grown these past two quarters, money supply is reviving but not soon enough, oil prices are going up again, help wanted has turned down, retail sales are down whilst inventories are up. Ill timed slowdown for the Democrats.
    , @Expletive Deleted

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she’s had one in the past.
     
    Dunno 'bout that. I was stupidly goggling at all the Stuff on CNN last night instead of sleeping, and was impressed both by Slick Willy's utterly unengaged "Yea, hi, whatever, Hil. I'm outta here, what're all you folks doing after?" post-oration stage invasion, and by Hildebeest's flesh-creeping resemblance to the late Cilla Black(footnotes for non-inselaffen). Could not shake it.
    Cilla, who blew a gasket (subarachnoid hem.) in her villa age 72, having been gladhanding and joshing with the punters at the airport, and looking "radiant", only a couple of days previous.
    HRC is 68. "Surprise, surprise!" ??
  142. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    ” or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?”

    More likely that he claims little income and pays little taxes (thanks to depreciation and other real estate write-downs).

    The idea that Trump is not rich is preposterous. Besides all the buildings and resorts he owns, he flies around in a full size jet (a 757 – not a Gulfstream or Lear jet), owns a huge yacht, and owns multiple residences worth tens of million each. You can’t maintain that lifestyle without very big money coming in off even bigger assets.

  143. @Ed
    I went to the Wikipedia article on the 2012 election and got their list of the states where the margin of victory was under 10% last time. These are the swing states:

    Donk:

    Florida, 0.88%
    Ohio, 2.98%
    Virginia, 3.87%
    Colorado, 5.37%
    Pennsylvania, 5.39%
    New Hampshire, 5.58%
    Iowa, 5.81%
    Nevada, 6.68%
    Wisconsin, 6.94%
    Minnesota, 7.69%
    Michigan, 9.50%

    GOP:

    North Carolina, 2.04%
    Georgia, 7.82%
    Arizona, 9.06%
    Missouri, 9.38%

    With the other states, if they flip, its some sort of national popular vote blow-out, probably after some real or manufactured scandal. Though Utah is a special case.

    But in a close race, I don't see Trump having to play defense anywhere. The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.

    Of the states on the Donk list, I expect that he will have problems with Virginia (a third of the state's population is in the DC metro area), and the upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, though trade issues will help him in Michigan. But he will get a regional advantage in the Northeast, which Romney didn't have despite being Governor of Massachusetts for a few years since he really comes from corporate-land.

    So he should target heavily Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, as well as the prototypical swing states of Florida (where he maintains a residence) and Ohio. New Hampshire doesn't have many electoral votes, but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message.

    “but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message”

    Iowa is the swing state most conducive to Trump. It has more manufacturing and manufacturing losses, it has more illegals, its closer to being won every time, and it lacks a big city Country Club Republican set who might tip towards Hillary.

  144. @Ed
    I went to the Wikipedia article on the 2012 election and got their list of the states where the margin of victory was under 10% last time. These are the swing states:

    Donk:

    Florida, 0.88%
    Ohio, 2.98%
    Virginia, 3.87%
    Colorado, 5.37%
    Pennsylvania, 5.39%
    New Hampshire, 5.58%
    Iowa, 5.81%
    Nevada, 6.68%
    Wisconsin, 6.94%
    Minnesota, 7.69%
    Michigan, 9.50%

    GOP:

    North Carolina, 2.04%
    Georgia, 7.82%
    Arizona, 9.06%
    Missouri, 9.38%

    With the other states, if they flip, its some sort of national popular vote blow-out, probably after some real or manufactured scandal. Though Utah is a special case.

    But in a close race, I don't see Trump having to play defense anywhere. The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.

    Of the states on the Donk list, I expect that he will have problems with Virginia (a third of the state's population is in the DC metro area), and the upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, though trade issues will help him in Michigan. But he will get a regional advantage in the Northeast, which Romney didn't have despite being Governor of Massachusetts for a few years since he really comes from corporate-land.

    So he should target heavily Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, as well as the prototypical swing states of Florida (where he maintains a residence) and Ohio. New Hampshire doesn't have many electoral votes, but Pennsylvania still does and is the swing state potentially most receptive to his message.

    The only one of the four GOP states on the list he might have more problems with than the generic Republican nominee is Missouri, and the state has been getting redder and redder each election regardless.

    Missouri is interesting for sure. In 2008 McCain beat Obama by 3900 votes out of 3 million cast.

    In this years primary, both Hillary and Trump won by extremely slim margins. Hillary won by only 1500 votes. Trump won by only 1700 votes.

  145. @SFG
    You know, this is why I never got into neoreaction.

    Only certain people should be allowed to vote? OK. Just wait until the SJWs decide that voting patterns have to match the ethnic composition of the area--can't have black people voting less, after all. Or women.

    That argument was the basis of the DOJ’s support of continuing the prior formula for Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

    We already claim that minors are incapable of exercising the franchise, and considering that the ACA allows one to be on parental insurance until 26, we arguably should raise the voting age.

    • Replies: @EriK

    We already claim that minors are incapable of exercising the franchise, and considering that the ACA allows one to be on parental insurance until 26, we arguably should raise the voting age.
     
    I'm in favor of raising the voting age. Thirty would be about right.
  146. @Andrew
    "Romney was a Northeasterner. "

    Romney was born in Michigan, happened to live in Massachusetts for a while, and spends much more time in California and Utah.

    I am a born and bred and still living here Northeasterner. Just because you fail to leave our part of the country after college, that doesn't make you a Northeasterner any more than paddling over the Pacific to the US from China makes you an American.

    Romney was elected the Governor of Massachusetts. He owns property there. If he isn’t a New Englander, then neither are the Kennedys.

  147. @Jack Hanson
    And once again, the guy who coined the term "Occam's Butterknufe" is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have "problems" in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.

    “Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.”

    Right. The key thing is that *Ted Cruz* is Trump’s major competitor. Even if you are skeptical of Trump’s chances, this primary is not a choice between Trump and an electable Republican.

    Cruz embodies every negative Republican stereotype. Hillary would absolutely love to run a scorched earth campaign against the Conniving Extremist Bible Thumper.

    So unless you just really love Ted Cruz’s brand of politics over Trump’s, there’s no reason to vote for him.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that's about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney's 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: "What's so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I'll keep my seat in 2016 and then we'll tear it up in 2018. Let's just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years." You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

  148. @Jefferson
    "I don’t see Trump losing in the CA primary, the state is unwinnable in the general due to anti-white racism among the majority of its electorate."

    In the general election, do you see Donald Trunp at least winning the California counties that Mitt Romney won?

    I think Trump does about as well as GWB did, but I think he will win Santa Barbara and Sacramento county. He may do worse than Romney in the illegal-dependent Los Angeles and Central Valley. If the R campaign refrains from any mention of social issues beyond a boilerplate “reduce abortions” statement, they could also do 10-15 points better in the Bay Area. The key would be to emphasize abuse of H1B and EB5.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0

    I expect a result like this if Hillary is indicted, or it appears obvious that Obama scuttled the indictment.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "I think Trump does about as well as GWB did, but I think he will win Santa Barbara and Sacramento county. He may do worse than Romney in the illegal-dependent Los Angeles and Central Valley. If the R campaign refrains from any mention of social issues beyond a boilerplate “reduce abortions” statement, they could also do 10-15 points better in the Bay Area. The key would be to emphasize abuse of H1B and EB5.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0

    I expect a result like this if Hillary is indicted, or it appears obvious that Obama scuttled the indictment."

    Do you see Donald Trump winning Orange County? Do you see White computer programmers and engineers in Silicon Valley who lost their jobs to an Indian or a Chinaman, voting for The Donald?
  149. @Glossy
    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won't cut the flow of oil until they're told to do so. And they won't be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you've mentioned - an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won't be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It's possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn't matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they're not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she's had one in the past. I've seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I'm saying this as someone who's rooting for Trump. But you've got to face the facts - Hillary appears to be in great shape.

    [an economic downturn … So there likely won’t be one this year.]

    One looks to be starting already. Consult “percent change from year ago” on the following time series:

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS

    • Replies: @Alex7
    Declining tax collections also suggest an economic downturn/recession.

    http://www.trivisonno.com/wp-content/uploads/Compare.png

    Nonetheless, even if we do fall into a recession the MSM, FED, NBER, etc. won't officially call it until after the election.
  150. @Jewish Conservative Race Realist
    I'm in for the $850 at .26. So I'm up about $2k right now. It isn't chump change.

    You may expect a call from Neal Gabler shortly. Just noticed his dog is limping, needs to borrow $400.

    • Replies: @Jewish Conservative Race Realist
    LOL. I don't have any money for him but I think I could spare a carton of eggs.
  151. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Looks like negative nelly Steve Sailer needs to get Trump’s recommended book, The Power of Positive Thinking, by Norman Vincent Peale (Trump’s pastor while growing up).

  152. @Anonymous
    Rhode Island is the most Catholic state in the US. Trump is very popular among northeastern Catholics, and as a Queens guy, he's more familiar with that culture despite being German and nominally Protestant.

    http://wpri.com/2015/03/11/study-rhode-island-is-still-most-catholic-us-state/

    Rhode Island is the only state not to have ratified Prohibition. The Catholic influence goes way back.

    Actually, literal Rhode Island– Narraganset– was probably still Protestant in those days. So the state that defied Prohibition was Providence Plantations.

  153. @Andrew
    Kasich is losing Montgomery County, MD, but he may be winning the central core of the county, which is the key.

    Trump won Montgomery County, MD, but by the lowest percentage in the state. With 99% of the votes counted:

    Trump 39%
    Kasich 35%
    Cruz 22%

    (The source for these numbers and the PA primary results below is the current cnn.com tally.)

    Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Trump also won every county, but the county where he performed worst was Chester County – McMansion country and the richest county in the state. This should raise a little concern with Trump supporters, given that ChesCo was the only Philadelphia area county to go for Romney – albeit barely – in 2012.

    Chester County, PA 2012 Presidential election (source: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/pennsylvania/):

    Romney, 49.7%, 123,280 votes
    Obama, 49.2%, 122,232 votes

    Chester County, PA 2016 Republican Primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 47%, 35,577
    Kasich, 31%, 23,855
    Cruz, 20%, 14,996

    In neighboring Montgomery County (PA – same name, different state), second richest in the state, Trump also scored less than 50%. Chester and Montgomery are the only two counties in Pennsylvania where Trump earned less than 50% of the vote.

    Montgomery County, PA 2016 Republican primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 48%, 51,444
    Kasich, 29%, 31,228
    Cruz, 20%, 21,395

    (Obama carried MontCo 57%-42% in 2012.)

    The softness of Trump support in these key counties is something to keep an eye on. Overall this was a tremendous night for the Donald, but it’s still a long, tough road to the Capitol steps on January 20, 2017, and a lot of it lies through places like the Philadelphia suburbs. (The same can be said for the Northern Virginia DC suburbs, which will be vital in winning that state.)

    The underlying story hasn’t changed since the last big round of primaries: Trump must find a way to broaden his appeal with middle- and upper-middle-class voters. The best way to do that is to tone down the bluster, stop mocking people like a middle-schooler, and sound like a President, not a reality TV star.

    • Replies: @Andrew
    "in Pennsylvania, Trump also won every county, but the county where he performed worst was Chester County – McMansion country and the richest county in the state."

    Actually his worst county was Lancaster County, home of goofy Protestant religious fanatics who went for Cruz. 44% for Trump, 31.6% for Cruz.

    "In neighboring Montgomery County (PA – same name, different state), second richest in the state, Trump also scored less than 50%."

    Yes, based on soft support in two areas.

    1) In 1%er land, Kasich beat Trump. That is Lower Merion Township, Narberth Borough on the Main Line, and Bryn Athyn Borough. This is the home territory of the ruling elite and includes all the large estate suburban areas with $5 million plus multi-acre estate homes.

    2) In 10%er land, Trump won, but with support in the 38-45% range due to higher Kasich support. This is the well-off collar Townships around Philadelphia with lots of professionals. Includes Whitemarsh, Springfield, Cheltenham, Abington, Upper Dublin, Lower Gwynedd, and Upper Gwynedd Townships and Jenkintown and Ambler Boroughs. These are the traditional streetcar and commuter rail suburbs built out to a great extent before 1940.

    3) Trump did much better in the ordinary suburban areas of Montgomery County. He got majorities in Lower Moreland, Upper Merion, West Norriton, Limerick, Lower and Upper Providence, Horsham, Upper and Lower Pottsgrove and Hatfield Townships for example. These are what I would call newer suburbs and exurbs from the Interstate era. He also won all the old industrial boroughs and working class Townships in Montgomery Township.

    A similar pattern was seen in Philadelphia. Kasich won outright the Republican vote in the 1%er Wards 5, 8, 15, 24, 27, and 30 in Center City and Wards 9, 22, and 59 (Chestnut Hill, West Mt Airy, West Germantown), again heavy on the mega wealthy and professionals. Trump crushed it elsewhere, including surprisingly wealthy Ward 38 (East Falls) - home of Gov Rendell and Sen Specter and the late Princess Grace. In Northeast and South Philadelphia, the River Wards (Port Richmond, Bridesburg, Jensington), and Roxborough, Trump was getting close to 75% of the GOP vote - rather like Staten Island (and also like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area in NE PA).

    A bigger takeaway is that Republicans are a small minority (just 15-35% of the general electorate) in many of these elite/professional 1%er/10%er areas already in PA. Losing a bunch of bitter Kasich voters there to Hillary since they are desperate for illegals and slop from the government and don't want to look bad to their Democrat friends really doesn't add up to much compared to the middle and working class people Trump is pulling in and his overwhelming support among regular middle class Republicans.
  154. Barring accidents – which are definitely possible – it’s going to be a massacre as Trump takes a huge bite out of the Dem blue collar vote including a substantial (for a GOP candidate) chunk of the Black vote.

  155. @Maj. Kong
    I think Trump does about as well as GWB did, but I think he will win Santa Barbara and Sacramento county. He may do worse than Romney in the illegal-dependent Los Angeles and Central Valley. If the R campaign refrains from any mention of social issues beyond a boilerplate "reduce abortions" statement, they could also do 10-15 points better in the Bay Area. The key would be to emphasize abuse of H1B and EB5.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0

    I expect a result like this if Hillary is indicted, or it appears obvious that Obama scuttled the indictment.

    “I think Trump does about as well as GWB did, but I think he will win Santa Barbara and Sacramento county. He may do worse than Romney in the illegal-dependent Los Angeles and Central Valley. If the R campaign refrains from any mention of social issues beyond a boilerplate “reduce abortions” statement, they could also do 10-15 points better in the Bay Area. The key would be to emphasize abuse of H1B and EB5.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0

    I expect a result like this if Hillary is indicted, or it appears obvious that Obama scuttled the indictment.”

    Do you see Donald Trump winning Orange County? Do you see White computer programmers and engineers in Silicon Valley who lost their jobs to an Indian or a Chinaman, voting for The Donald?

  156. @Das
    "Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA."

    Right. The key thing is that *Ted Cruz* is Trump's major competitor. Even if you are skeptical of Trump's chances, this primary is not a choice between Trump and an electable Republican.

    Cruz embodies every negative Republican stereotype. Hillary would absolutely love to run a scorched earth campaign against the Conniving Extremist Bible Thumper.

    So unless you just really love Ted Cruz's brand of politics over Trump's, there's no reason to vote for him.

    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that’s about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney’s 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: “What’s so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I’ll keep my seat in 2016 and then we’ll tear it up in 2018. Let’s just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years.” You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Good analysis.
    , @rod1963
    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him



    Considering what useless pieces of fecal matter most GOP pols are, it won't make a difference anymore at the national level. Look at the House and Senate GOP, it's a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall Street and mega donors.

    Besides there is no comeback after Hillary, most GOP voters do not want another sleazeiod like Cruz or dreadful phoney pols like Romney, Ryan or McCain. We're through with the party and it's perpetual betrayal of America over the last 30 years. They are no friends of the white working and middle-class or the country.

    They already made it clear that our vote means nothing when we don't vote the way they want us to vote. After CO and WY, why should anyone support such a nasty, un-American party such as the GOP?








    The way a lot of Trump supporters see it, there's just one party with two different faces. A uniparty controlled by wealthy. And when you look at the real important issues there is little different on the substantive issues between the parties now. Both support globalization, off-shoring of industry, uncontrolled immigration, destruction of the white working and middle-class.
    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    In just the vein you're arguing here, this little number over at American Thinker is pretty funny.
    , @Yngvar

    and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering
     
    Col. Allen West was gerrymandered out of a safe seat. The GOP establishment really hated the Tea Party.
  157. Oh sure, Trump can win delegates in those backward states where they allow people to vote. If you approve of that sort of thing. But Ted Cruz is the only candidate who can win the hearts and minds of party functionaries.

  158. @Jack Hanson
    And once again, the guy who coined the term "Occam's Butterknufe" is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have "problems" in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.

    “Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.”

    Too bad the idea of Hildabeast as POTUS does not give Steve the vapors.

    Maybe Steve believes 4 or 8 years of Hildabeast would not be bad for White America. Maybe Steve believes Hildabeast is just putting on an act and that she is not really an anti-White social justice warrior.

    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump's massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*
  159. Haven’t checked, but I get the feeling Trump does better in areas with a higher percentage of Jews in the same way (and for roughly the same reason) Romney did better in areas where blacks were more prominent.

    (btw, look for Sanders’ voters to swing to Trump)

    • Replies: @SFG
    He's won way too much of the South for that.

    The only states with any Jews, practically speaking, are NY, NJ, PA, CA, FL, and MA. He won most of those that had primaries, but his support's a lot wider.

    I'd say he wins more where blacks are prominent--he wins the same states Clinton does, more or less.
    , @Craig Nelsen
    Well, Steve, I don't remember what you came up with for the correlation between whiteness of electorate and support for Obama, but I just compared Jewish percent of population by state to Trump's percent of vote and came up with r = .45 and when I removed the outlier DC, r jumped to .61.

    So there's a ponderable for you!

  160. @David In TN
    "The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House."

    And even the HBO movie admitted Thomas didn't lay a hand on her. With a total lack of irony, HBO shows a Ted Kennedy female staffer orchestrating the campaign against Clarence Thomas.

    Speaking of Ted Kennedy, for those who weren't around back then, or haven't studied the Chappaquiddick Affair, his actions (or lack of) were far, far worse than generally known.

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they've got.

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they’ve got.

    No, the MSM will love The Donald. They aren’t going to write themselves out of the new Camelot. The MSM is about to become very, very conservative, in the sense of being a supporter of The Donald and all his works.

  161. @Nico

    Maryland is just better than Pennsylvania in so many ways.
     
    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.

    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.

    Well, I said “in so many ways”, not “in every way”. You’re right about Philadelphia vs. Baltimore. Philadelphia is also a more interesting city than DC (not strictly speaking in Maryland, of course), although I wouldn’t call it better. Just more interesting, especially if you like that sort of gritty, blue-collar ethnic, “Rocky” feel that Philly has and that is completely absent in Washington.

    If you like big Northeastern-type cities, this is all very relevant. If not – I don’t – then it doesn’t really matter. I lived in Maryland for 30 years and visited Baltimore city perhaps four times despite its being only a half-hour’s drive away.

    It’s a matter of personal taste and experience, of course, but overall Maryland remains a better place to live in my opinion. Yes, the taxes are higher, but the services are better. Greater affluence + higher taxes + more educated population = much better services.

    Besides, Maryland has Ledo pizza. What more needs to be said?

    • Replies: @Nico
    I'm big on the Northeast - grew up in upstate NY (Rochester/Monroe County) - but I suppose I'm going with what an outsider knows about PA or MD (i.e., only the "hubs"). If I were to live in the countryside (quite possible if I stay in France; not likely if I ever return to the States) I would definitely have to take your admonitions into consideration. However, I should be interested to know exactly what you mean by "more educated" as given the state of the intelligentsia in America "more educated" people are often *not* better company than the alternative...
  162. PN says:

    And with 99% of the vote counted Trump ends up with about 26,000 fewer voters than Hillary — far less of an uphill climb than it seemed early last night. The real issue looking ahead to the GE is what becomes of those Bernie voters (an enormous 700,000+ in PA).

    Doubtless Trump will push them to stay home or cross over. How many can he get to do either? The answer to this question seems like it will determine how the election goes as a whole.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks for the update.
  163. @PN
    And with 99% of the vote counted Trump ends up with about 26,000 fewer voters than Hillary -- far less of an uphill climb than it seemed early last night. The real issue looking ahead to the GE is what becomes of those Bernie voters (an enormous 700,000+ in PA).

    Doubtless Trump will push them to stay home or cross over. How many can he get to do either? The answer to this question seems like it will determine how the election goes as a whole.

    Thanks for the update.

  164. @Andrew
    "Okay but the Democrats’ turnout is 10 or 20% higher tonight than the GOP turnout in PA."

    In Delaware County, which Kerry won 57%-43% and Obama won 60%-39%, Republicans are outvoting Democrats 51%-49%. Republicans have not won Delaware County since 1988.

    Statewide as outstanding rural areas come in, the total vote tally is narrowing now 1.26M to 1.42M. Most outstanding precincts are in York, Lancaster, Chester, Adams, Lebanon and other south central heavily Republican counties.

    With 99% of the vote counted in Pennsylvania, the total Democrats’ vote is about 1653K to the Republicans’ 1573K or a slight 51.2-48.8 Dem advantage in a closed primary. Its odd the the GOP would beat the Dems in turnout in Delaware County (where Obama won 60% in 2012) but not win the turnout for the state. However, the Western PA counties seem to explain why. The Democrats beat the Republicans in Allegheny County 220K to 120K in turnout or roughly 65-35. (Obama won that county in 2012, but with 56.5% of the vote.) Like the other counties around it, Allegheny has been trending Republican since NAFTA, so I suspect a lot of blue collar Democrats who voted for Bernie will vote for Trump in the fall. Overall, I like Trump’s chances in Pennsylvania.

    It should also be noted that Dem turnout was down 30% in PA compared to 2008 and that Hillary received 350,000 less votes in 2016 than she did in 2008’s primary. In fact, Obama ’08 in PA’s primary received more votes that Hillary ’16.

  165. @5371
    [an economic downturn ... So there likely won’t be one this year.]

    One looks to be starting already. Consult "percent change from year ago" on the following time series:

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS

    Declining tax collections also suggest an economic downturn/recession.

    Nonetheless, even if we do fall into a recession the MSM, FED, NBER, etc. won’t officially call it until after the election.

  166. @Steve Sailer
    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that's about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney's 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: "What's so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I'll keep my seat in 2016 and then we'll tear it up in 2018. Let's just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years." You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

    Good analysis.

  167. @Steve Sailer
    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that's about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney's 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: "What's so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I'll keep my seat in 2016 and then we'll tear it up in 2018. Let's just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years." You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him

    Considering what useless pieces of fecal matter most GOP pols are, it won’t make a difference anymore at the national level. Look at the House and Senate GOP, it’s a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall Street and mega donors.

    Besides there is no comeback after Hillary, most GOP voters do not want another sleazeiod like Cruz or dreadful phoney pols like Romney, Ryan or McCain. We’re through with the party and it’s perpetual betrayal of America over the last 30 years. They are no friends of the white working and middle-class or the country.

    They already made it clear that our vote means nothing when we don’t vote the way they want us to vote. After CO and WY, why should anyone support such a nasty, un-American party such as the GOP?

    The way a lot of Trump supporters see it, there’s just one party with two different faces. A uniparty controlled by wealthy. And when you look at the real important issues there is little different on the substantive issues between the parties now. Both support globalization, off-shoring of industry, uncontrolled immigration, destruction of the white working and middle-class.

  168. @David In TN
    "The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House."

    And even the HBO movie admitted Thomas didn't lay a hand on her. With a total lack of irony, HBO shows a Ted Kennedy female staffer orchestrating the campaign against Clarence Thomas.

    Speaking of Ted Kennedy, for those who weren't around back then, or haven't studied the Chappaquiddick Affair, his actions (or lack of) were far, far worse than generally known.

    Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they've got.

    Seen claims the Chappaquiddick Affair was a warning to Ted not to follow his brothers into an early grave. Plausible.

    • Replies: @David In TN
    It was Mary Jo Kopechne who was sent to an early grave in case you didn't notice.
  169. @Glossy
    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won't cut the flow of oil until they're told to do so. And they won't be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you've mentioned - an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won't be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It's possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn't matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they're not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she's had one in the past. I've seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I'm saying this as someone who's rooting for Trump. But you've got to face the facts - Hillary appears to be in great shape.

    Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I’m surprised Alex Jones hasn’t come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she’s ended up an establishment Democrat.

    • Replies: @anon
    I think it's probably just greed in her case but the donors probably have a ton of prime blackmail dirt on Bill that would damage her by association.
    , @Jefferson
    "Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I’m surprised Alex Jones hasn’t come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she’s ended up an establishment Democrat."

    Some people change their political views in their lifetime. Hildabeast said Richard Nixon was too Far Right Wing for her and that is why she became a Liberal in the late 1960s.
  170. @Glossy
    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won't cut the flow of oil until they're told to do so. And they won't be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you've mentioned - an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won't be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It's possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn't matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they're not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she's had one in the past. I've seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I'm saying this as someone who's rooting for Trump. But you've got to face the facts - Hillary appears to be in great shape.

    US economy has barely grown these past two quarters, money supply is reviving but not soon enough, oil prices are going up again, help wanted has turned down, retail sales are down whilst inventories are up. Ill timed slowdown for the Democrats.

  171. @Polynikes
    By that same token,Trump takes FL and OH in the general putting him one more state from the presidency under the '12 map.

    It'll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    It’ll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    Provided that Trump keeps basically doing what he is doing, it will either be close to 50/50 or a landslide in his favor. I don’t see Hillary destroying Trump. I think it will be closer to a landslide, Trump’s favor.

    Hillary is no Thatcher. She is no Joan of Arc. There are some good women leaders, those who both men and women will rally around. But Hillary strikes me as the sort of woman that a lot of women would hate to have as a boss, a more typical sort of woman. She can’t even follow the directions of her own security staff as to how to handle security issues. Do as I say, not as I do. Maybe it would work if Hillary’s own history was of success after success that justifies prima donna type behavior. It seems like she had a respectable career prior to meeting Bill, but a lot of people have similar careers.

    • Replies: @SFG
    Just wait until the Democrats dig up all the things he's said about women.

    If you notice, there are very few women on this board. Plenty of Jews--it involves arguing about politics, after all. ;) But very few women.
  172. @Steve Sailer
    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that's about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney's 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: "What's so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I'll keep my seat in 2016 and then we'll tear it up in 2018. Let's just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years." You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

    In just the vein you’re arguing here, this little number over at American Thinker is pretty funny.

  173. @Anonym
    This is gold.

    http://youtube.com/watch?v=NHS-K7OuLAc

    Not terrible but not all that funny. Actors are gay.

    • Replies: @Anonym
    I guess humor is subjective. I like how it is played straight, and little touches like the music and the cover of the textbook, like it was a genuine college course. Ever taken a college math course? If you have, the whole discussion is done well IME... it's like the real thing. I love how the Bernie supporter seems reasonable at first, until the mask drops and the full brunt of passive aggressivism is displayed, and then back at attempts at being reasonable. And the delusion, the cultlike behavior, it worked well.
  174. @Astolf
    From the election day Wiki page:

    In 1845, the United States was largely an agrarian society. Farmers often needed a full day to travel by horse-drawn vehicles to the county seat to vote. Tuesday was established as election day because it did not interfere with the Biblical Sabbath or with market day, which was on Wednesday in many towns.

    Sounds plausible.

    Why the Tuesday after the first Monday, and not just the first Tuesday? To avoid a conflict with All Saints Day? Do Protestants celebrate it?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I wondered about the interaction of Halloween/All Saints Day and Election Day when I was a kid. The explanation I heard I was told is that it's not related, it's just that the first of the month comes with various business obligations, so that's ruled out to movie Election Day to as unimportant a date as possible.
  175. @I, Libertine
    Why the Tuesday after the first Monday, and not just the first Tuesday? To avoid a conflict with All Saints Day? Do Protestants celebrate it?

    I wondered about the interaction of Halloween/All Saints Day and Election Day when I was a kid. The explanation I heard I was told is that it’s not related, it’s just that the first of the month comes with various business obligations, so that’s ruled out to movie Election Day to as unimportant a date as possible.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    But you probably have a better memory that, as a Catholic schoolboy, on November 1st you were able to lounge around at home with your Halloween loot while your public school friends had to go to school!
  176. @Steve Sailer
    Sure, all this stuff could happen.

    What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there's an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there's an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he's not really all that rich?

    The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They'll be coming for the Donald with everything they've got.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don't get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Agree. He’s more valuable for where he pushed the Overton window. Future GOP candidates will have to take a harder line on immigration, and populism will be a less dirty word. The next guy will crack down on illegal immigration without claiming Mexicans are rapists.

    He’s Goldwater–he won’t be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    He’s Goldwater–he won’t be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    If Trump isn't the next president, can there be a future Republican president? Hillary will open the floodgates to non-white immigrants.
  177. @Anonym
    It’ll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    Provided that Trump keeps basically doing what he is doing, it will either be close to 50/50 or a landslide in his favor. I don't see Hillary destroying Trump. I think it will be closer to a landslide, Trump's favor.

    Hillary is no Thatcher. She is no Joan of Arc. There are some good women leaders, those who both men and women will rally around. But Hillary strikes me as the sort of woman that a lot of women would hate to have as a boss, a more typical sort of woman. She can't even follow the directions of her own security staff as to how to handle security issues. Do as I say, not as I do. Maybe it would work if Hillary's own history was of success after success that justifies prima donna type behavior. It seems like she had a respectable career prior to meeting Bill, but a lot of people have similar careers.

    Just wait until the Democrats dig up all the things he’s said about women.

    If you notice, there are very few women on this board. Plenty of Jews–it involves arguing about politics, after all. 😉 But very few women.

    • Replies: @Anonym
    From what I can see, there hasn't been a whole lot of holding back with ammo that might be used against Trump.

    Maybe some women are dissuaded from voting for Trump. OTOH, are they persuaded to vote for Hillary? And you do realize that the moment they start attacking Trump for perceived misogyny, Trump goes to town on Bill Clinton and Hillary's enabling of his indiscretions and nastiness. That's not a rock she should want to turn over.

    Trump is a competitor. I don't see Clinton bringing that same positioning of strengths vs weaknesses that Trump will bring to this fight. I see the general characterized by a lot of Democrats and Independents staying home, or voting for Trump. And I see Trump's base - that is, anyone who has been gifted with a shot to actually vote for someone who will do something to further their interest - mobilizing like they may never have that chance again.
  178. @Craig Nelsen
    Haven't checked, but I get the feeling Trump does better in areas with a higher percentage of Jews in the same way (and for roughly the same reason) Romney did better in areas where blacks were more prominent.

    (btw, look for Sanders' voters to swing to Trump)

    He’s won way too much of the South for that.

    The only states with any Jews, practically speaking, are NY, NJ, PA, CA, FL, and MA. He won most of those that had primaries, but his support’s a lot wider.

    I’d say he wins more where blacks are prominent–he wins the same states Clinton does, more or less.

  179. @Jefferson
    "No"

    Are you saying Obese Jong-un is a coward?

    Yes, if by that you mean ‘doesn’t want to get into a war with the USA’.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Yes, if by that you mean ‘doesn’t want to get into a war with the USA’"

    But ISIS wants to get into a war with The U.S and the whole Western world in general. Why does ISIS have more balls than Kim Jung Un? ISIS is willing to die for their anti-American, anti-European, and anti-Israeli beliefs. The fact that Kim Jung Un is afraid of dying, makes him a beta male. Kim Jung Un is chicken shit. He gives dictators a bad name. Kim Jung Un is nowhere near as badass as Islamic terrorists.

  180. @Jack Hanson
    And once again, the guy who coined the term "Occam's Butterknufe" is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have "problems" in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.

    Wanting a guy to win and thinking he can win are two separate things.

    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Relying on "lawgic" you twisted into a pretzel cause you think Mittens "My Hedge Fund" Romney wasn't a bad candidate to prove your point makes you look silly though.
  181. @Craig Nelsen
    Haven't checked, but I get the feeling Trump does better in areas with a higher percentage of Jews in the same way (and for roughly the same reason) Romney did better in areas where blacks were more prominent.

    (btw, look for Sanders' voters to swing to Trump)

    Well, Steve, I don’t remember what you came up with for the correlation between whiteness of electorate and support for Obama, but I just compared Jewish percent of population by state to Trump’s percent of vote and came up with r = .45 and when I removed the outlier DC, r jumped to .61.

    So there’s a ponderable for you!

  182. @Maj. Kong
    That argument was the basis of the DOJ's support of continuing the prior formula for Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

    We already claim that minors are incapable of exercising the franchise, and considering that the ACA allows one to be on parental insurance until 26, we arguably should raise the voting age.

    We already claim that minors are incapable of exercising the franchise, and considering that the ACA allows one to be on parental insurance until 26, we arguably should raise the voting age.

    I’m in favor of raising the voting age. Thirty would be about right.

  183. @Danindc
    Not terrible but not all that funny. Actors are gay.

    I guess humor is subjective. I like how it is played straight, and little touches like the music and the cover of the textbook, like it was a genuine college course. Ever taken a college math course? If you have, the whole discussion is done well IME… it’s like the real thing. I love how the Bernie supporter seems reasonable at first, until the mask drops and the full brunt of passive aggressivism is displayed, and then back at attempts at being reasonable. And the delusion, the cultlike behavior, it worked well.

    • Replies: @Danindc
    Ok fair enough. I think I like caustic straight to point humor better.
  184. It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn’t come out and say it like Beck.

    Rush seems a lot less earnest about partisan politics than Beck does. Beck seems to wear his heart on his sleeve at all times.

    I just don’t like, or trust, him anymore.

    I’m not sure I’ve ever liked him in any straightforward way (short version, I like him in a “he may be a bastard, but he’s our bastard), and I’ve never trusted him. I just distrust him less than the rest.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.

    Yeah, there are signs that the media has shifted to playing rope-a-dope with Trump until the nominations are over. There’s also the fact that Americans don’t trust the media any further than they can throw it. I suppose we’re going find out how far down that attitude penetrates.

    And once again, the guy who coined the term “Occam’s Butterknufe” is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have “problems” in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.

    His point was that “stuff happens” swings both ways, and he’s right.

    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    And aliens could attack the Earth and indefinitely postpone elections, but it doesn't mean I should go trying to cram square shaped data points into a round hole in order to justify my opinion.
    , @MEH 0910

    His point was that “stuff happens” swings both ways, and he’s right.
     
    I agree.
  185. @SFG
    Just wait until the Democrats dig up all the things he's said about women.

    If you notice, there are very few women on this board. Plenty of Jews--it involves arguing about politics, after all. ;) But very few women.

    From what I can see, there hasn’t been a whole lot of holding back with ammo that might be used against Trump.

    Maybe some women are dissuaded from voting for Trump. OTOH, are they persuaded to vote for Hillary? And you do realize that the moment they start attacking Trump for perceived misogyny, Trump goes to town on Bill Clinton and Hillary’s enabling of his indiscretions and nastiness. That’s not a rock she should want to turn over.

    Trump is a competitor. I don’t see Clinton bringing that same positioning of strengths vs weaknesses that Trump will bring to this fight. I see the general characterized by a lot of Democrats and Independents staying home, or voting for Trump. And I see Trump’s base – that is, anyone who has been gifted with a shot to actually vote for someone who will do something to further their interest – mobilizing like they may never have that chance again.

    • Replies: @SFG
    True, but there are a lot of suburban types who are afraid he's unpredictable.

    The guy's had three wives--lots of women are afraid the guy will stray and they'll become the 'first wife'. Sure, they can clean up in divorce, but if you want to raise a family it's not the best thing.
    , @Brutusale
    Yet the very first person I know who climbed onto the Trump bandwagon was a woman, my girlfriend. But her hospital sees the worst depredations inflicted by open borders, so it makes sense.
  186. From that American Thinker article:

    emblazoned with “We’re Ready Now!” echoing the “Ready for Hillary” campaign slogan.

    I had to G**gle that to make sure “Ready for Hillary” really is her campaign slogan. Is it just me, or is that a bad campaign slogan? I’m picturing a lot of folks with their pants down, heads bowed, grabbing their ankles, and sighing in resignation as they Ready for Hillary.

    William Kristol – Never known Hillary to be vulgar

    LOL.

  187. @Glossy
    Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy. The Saudis are US puppets who won't cut the flow of oil until they're told to do so. And they won't be told to do so before the election because of exactly what you've mentioned - an economic downturn would help Trump. So there likely won't be one this year.

    Major terrorist attack: depends on how major. It's possible.

    Hillary indicted: 0% chance. It doesn't matter what she did. What matters is that the powers that be want her to beat Trump. So they're not going to let her be indicted. At that level everything is political.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she's had one in the past. I've seen her in debates. Very few people can be as sharp and energetic at her age as she is. And I'm saying this as someone who's rooting for Trump. But you've got to face the facts - Hillary appears to be in great shape.

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she’s had one in the past.

    Dunno ’bout that. I was stupidly goggling at all the Stuff on CNN last night instead of sleeping, and was impressed both by Slick Willy’s utterly unengaged “Yea, hi, whatever, Hil. I’m outta here, what’re all you folks doing after?” post-oration stage invasion, and by Hildebeest’s flesh-creeping resemblance to the late Cilla Black(footnotes for non-inselaffen). Could not shake it.
    Cilla, who blew a gasket (subarachnoid hem.) in her villa age 72, having been gladhanding and joshing with the punters at the airport, and looking “radiant”, only a couple of days previous.
    HRC is 68. “Surprise, surprise!” ??

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Hillary's mother lasted to 92. All of those who are hoping for divine intervention between now and November may be sorely disappointed. She really would have to die - any amount of illness will be concealed by her campaign and the press. If she was lying in intensive care it would be sold as "taking a few days off the campaign trail for some rest."
    , @Glossy
    I was well aware of Cilla Black. I read everything I could about the Beatles when I was young, and she figures in their story. Didn't know she passed away. Sad.
  188. @SFG
    Agree. He's more valuable for where he pushed the Overton window. Future GOP candidates will have to take a harder line on immigration, and populism will be a less dirty word. The next guy will crack down on illegal immigration without claiming Mexicans are rapists.

    He's Goldwater--he won't be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    He’s Goldwater–he won’t be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    If Trump isn’t the next president, can there be a future Republican president? Hillary will open the floodgates to non-white immigrants.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    They've been open for years.
    , @SFG
    Eh, I don't know. Depends how bad a job Hillary does and how long the newcomers take to get naturalized--unless they become citizens, they can't vote.
  189. @SFG
    Wanting a guy to win and thinking he can win are two separate things.

    Relying on “lawgic” you twisted into a pretzel cause you think Mittens “My Hedge Fund” Romney wasn’t a bad candidate to prove your point makes you look silly though.

  190. @Jefferson
    "Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors."

    Too bad the idea of Hildabeast as POTUS does not give Steve the vapors.

    Maybe Steve believes 4 or 8 years of Hildabeast would not be bad for White America. Maybe Steve believes Hildabeast is just putting on an act and that she is not really an anti-White social justice warrior.

    Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump’s massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Yes, please don't confuse us with all that spergy data, all them Lectoral Votes 'n stuff! Trump is a Winner! People love him! That's all you need to know.
    , @Jefferson
    "Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump’s massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*"

    So Steve believes that secretly Hildabeast is not really pro-Black Lies Matter? And that she will have zero tolerance for Chimp Out riots if she is POTUS?

    Steve is being way too optimistic about Hildabeast. The German in him wants to vote for her. Germans just love Hildabeast.

  191. Still, it’s not promising for November for Trump. Presumably, Trump has a puncher’s chance of winning…… But it’s an uphill struggle.

    That’s okay. About time Actual Americans learn, once again, that achievement without struggle is illusory.

  192. “Just wait until the Democrats dig up all the things he’s said about women.”

    That presupposes that women actually vote in accordance with what they claim to be their feminist principles. I’d say that assertion is unproved. A lot of women also say that they look for “a sense of humor” in a mate, rather than, say, good looks and money. A lot of women voted for Bill Clinton knowing that he was, at best, a cad, and at worst, a rapist.

  193. @Polynikes
    By that same token,Trump takes FL and OH in the general putting him one more state from the presidency under the '12 map.

    It'll be close to a 50/50 race, I think.

    It is obscene that Hillary is campaigning against herself and few people notice. She claims that she can fix the two key policy snafus that the Clinton’s administration drove through Congress. Those are NAFTA and the repeal of the Depression-era regulations that kept Wall Street caged. I remember Hillary campaigning for NAFTA. As I recall, she promised NAFTA would make America and Mexico wealthy because Mexicans would buy our high-tech products and we would buy their …. (sorry, I can’t recall this part). Are Democratic voters the least informed voters on planet earth? Oh, I know, Hillary campaigning for the right for transgendered people to use their bathroom-of-choice distracts Democratic voters from the issues that attack their vested interests. You know, people feel strongly about transgendered toilet habits.

    I loved Bill’s rejoinder when asked about his repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act (in the vernacular): “Well, that was then, and it appeared to be a good idea at the time. But now is now ….”

    “What changed, Bill?”

    “What it takes to get elected.”

  194. @Lot

    I’ve lost a lot of respect for Charles Murray for his tweets
     
    Murray is a giant among men. Google his name, a SPLC hit piece is the second result after Wikipedia. He just DGAF and keeps retweeting iSteve and telling the truth on TV.

    If you want to get Real depressed, read Murray’s book Losing Ground. I thought I knew a bit about the Great Society but I was completely floored by the radical social engineering that went on, especially the stuff that targeted blacks. http://www.amazon.com/Losing-Ground-American-Social-1950-1980/dp/0465065880

  195. @keypusher
    Charles Murray co-wrote The Bell Curve and sticks by it to this day (though he doesn't exactly bring it up every chance he gets). None of us except maybe Steve has any business questioning his courage or accusing him of caring too much what his peers think.

    Right. And Murray continues to be slandered and demonized by people who willfully distort the one chapter in The Bell Curve where he and Herrnstein talk about race, even though both are careful to say “we draw no conclusions, but here are the facts”. Of course, it’s the facts the Left does not like.

  196. @unpc downunder
    Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I'm surprised Alex Jones hasn't come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she's ended up an establishment Democrat.

    I think it’s probably just greed in her case but the donors probably have a ton of prime blackmail dirt on Bill that would damage her by association.

  197. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Trump is taking the perfect tack for the current state of corrupted politics – pro-worker but not socialist.

    You don’t need regulations, minimum wage etc to be pro-worker (and if you go that route you alienate the other half of your coalition) – all you have to do is regulate the supply of labor.

  198. @LondonBob
    Seen claims the Chappaquiddick Affair was a warning to Ted not to follow his brothers into an early grave. Plausible.

    It was Mary Jo Kopechne who was sent to an early grave in case you didn’t notice.

    • Replies: @Bad Memories
    Indeed, but you missed the point.

    She was one of the people who don't matter.

    It is possible that 'they' wanted to warn Ted.
  199. @Jack Hanson
    Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump's massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*

    Yes, please don’t confuse us with all that spergy data, all them Lectoral Votes ‘n stuff! Trump is a Winner! People love him! That’s all you need to know.

    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Way to miss the point.

    Steve is basically engaging in Cohenism: mendaciously arguing the most obliquely related of data points in order to bolster his far fetched hypothesis while engaging in wishful daydreaming (re:Hillary the dependable moderate) & ignoring the obvious facts that fly in his face.
  200. @David In TN
    It was Mary Jo Kopechne who was sent to an early grave in case you didn't notice.

    Indeed, but you missed the point.

    She was one of the people who don’t matter.

    It is possible that ‘they’ wanted to warn Ted.

    • Replies: @David In TN
    And just who are 'they'? Did 'they' drive the car and decline to raise the alarm or report the accident?

    After Chappaquiddick, Ted Kennedy changed neither his policy stance or personal behavior.
  201. @Expletive Deleted

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she’s had one in the past.
     
    Dunno 'bout that. I was stupidly goggling at all the Stuff on CNN last night instead of sleeping, and was impressed both by Slick Willy's utterly unengaged "Yea, hi, whatever, Hil. I'm outta here, what're all you folks doing after?" post-oration stage invasion, and by Hildebeest's flesh-creeping resemblance to the late Cilla Black(footnotes for non-inselaffen). Could not shake it.
    Cilla, who blew a gasket (subarachnoid hem.) in her villa age 72, having been gladhanding and joshing with the punters at the airport, and looking "radiant", only a couple of days previous.
    HRC is 68. "Surprise, surprise!" ??

    Hillary’s mother lasted to 92. All of those who are hoping for divine intervention between now and November may be sorely disappointed. She really would have to die – any amount of illness will be concealed by her campaign and the press. If she was lying in intensive care it would be sold as “taking a few days off the campaign trail for some rest.”

  202. @Svigor

    It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn’t come out and say it like Beck.
     
    Rush seems a lot less earnest about partisan politics than Beck does. Beck seems to wear his heart on his sleeve at all times.

    I just don’t like, or trust, him anymore.
     
    I'm not sure I've ever liked him in any straightforward way (short version, I like him in a "he may be a bastard, but he's our bastard), and I've never trusted him. I just distrust him less than the rest.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
     
    Yeah, there are signs that the media has shifted to playing rope-a-dope with Trump until the nominations are over. There's also the fact that Americans don't trust the media any further than they can throw it. I suppose we're going find out how far down that attitude penetrates.

    And once again, the guy who coined the term “Occam’s Butterknufe” is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have “problems” in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.
     
    His point was that "stuff happens" swings both ways, and he's right.

    And aliens could attack the Earth and indefinitely postpone elections, but it doesn’t mean I should go trying to cram square shaped data points into a round hole in order to justify my opinion.

  203. It’s weird how much Trump triggers people.

    I don’t think the media will calm down their attacks; they might decide on a different tactic but they won’t be able to stop themselves because he triggers them too much.

  204. @Jack D
    Yes, please don't confuse us with all that spergy data, all them Lectoral Votes 'n stuff! Trump is a Winner! People love him! That's all you need to know.

    Way to miss the point.

    Steve is basically engaging in Cohenism: mendaciously arguing the most obliquely related of data points in order to bolster his far fetched hypothesis while engaging in wishful daydreaming (re:Hillary the dependable moderate) & ignoring the obvious facts that fly in his face.

    • Replies: @SFG
    For 'obvious facts', there are national polls showing Hillary has the advantage over Trump by about 9 points...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    When did he say Hillary was moderate? He said Trump probably wasn't going to win because the media was going to try to take him down and plenty of embarrassing stuff could surface.

    Again, just because Steve might want Trump to win doesn't mean Steve thinks Trump will win. I want to sleep with Scarlett Johansson, but that doesn't mean I think I will. ;)

  205. @Jack Hanson
    Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump's massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*

    “Steve believes Hillary is a secret center moderate but that Trump’s massive turnout means nothing cause *Tyler Cowen levels of data spergin follows*”

    So Steve believes that secretly Hildabeast is not really pro-Black Lies Matter? And that she will have zero tolerance for Chimp Out riots if she is POTUS?

    Steve is being way too optimistic about Hildabeast. The German in him wants to vote for her. Germans just love Hildabeast.

  206. @unpc downunder
    Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I'm surprised Alex Jones hasn't come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she's ended up an establishment Democrat.

    “Hillary actually started out as a reasonably attractive women on the right. She also has some similarities in terms of background to populist British PM Lloyd George (looks, social class, Welsch background). How come she ended up a bitter and twisted peddler of leftists identity politics and corporate brown nosing?

    I’m surprised Alex Jones hasn’t come up with some sort of conspriracy about why she’s ended up an establishment Democrat.”

    Some people change their political views in their lifetime. Hildabeast said Richard Nixon was too Far Right Wing for her and that is why she became a Liberal in the late 1960s.

  207. @SFG
    Yes, if by that you mean 'doesn't want to get into a war with the USA'.

    “Yes, if by that you mean ‘doesn’t want to get into a war with the USA’”

    But ISIS wants to get into a war with The U.S and the whole Western world in general. Why does ISIS have more balls than Kim Jung Un? ISIS is willing to die for their anti-American, anti-European, and anti-Israeli beliefs. The fact that Kim Jung Un is afraid of dying, makes him a beta male. Kim Jung Un is chicken shit. He gives dictators a bad name. Kim Jung Un is nowhere near as badass as Islamic terrorists.

  208. @Jack D
    You can apply for a B-2 Tourist visa which is 180 days but requires more paperwork, a visit to the nearest US consulate , waiting time, etc.

    Or you could spend 3 months in the US , 3 months visiting Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, etc. and then come back for another 3 months in the US.

    Thanks

  209. @Jack D
    You can apply for a B-2 Tourist visa which is 180 days but requires more paperwork, a visit to the nearest US consulate , waiting time, etc.

    Or you could spend 3 months in the US , 3 months visiting Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, etc. and then come back for another 3 months in the US.

    Thanks

  210. @Buzz Mohawk

    ...or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?
     
    Tax returns list income, not assets. The guy could be worth ten billion dollars and only bring in a few bucks in a given year, so some people might think he's "not really all that rich." I know I don't have to explain this, but apparently I do have to explain this.

    More likely, his returns show strategies and arrangements he'd rather the public not see. Either that, or he's concerned the average person will make exactly the type of uninformed conclusion described above.


    ...don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
     
    Okay, then. We'll just give up and keep griping about the same stuff we always do here, and we'll wait around for a perfect Superman candidate to come down from heaven and fix things.

    A defeatist attitude, learned helplessness, doesn't solve anything. It's time to at least try to jump out of the box we're in.

    Here in Connecticut, we jumped pretty high today. In my own town, Trump got more votes than Clinton. He got more than anybody, here in an affluent, blue state town.

    The "smart" people have been wrong every time about Candidate Trump. No one has any reason to believe that will change. The heels Mrs. Clinton stands so high upon were designed by Achilles.

    He couldn’t just bring in a few bucks per year and have billions in real estate, since you have to pay property taxes on real estate every year out of your income. You can estimate net worth with income.

  211. @Steve Sailer
    Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that's about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney's 2012 performance.

    Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.

    All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.

    But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: "What's so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I'll keep my seat in 2016 and then we'll tear it up in 2018. Let's just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years." You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.

    Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.

    and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering

    Col. Allen West was gerrymandered out of a safe seat. The GOP establishment really hated the Tea Party.

  212. @Jack D
    Just looked at the sample ballot for my township in PA. There's a "beauty contest" primary but the Republicans actually vote for delegates and the delegates are not pledged (or required to state whether they support) to any candidate - in any case there are 4 on the ballot and you vote for 3, so not much choice. None of the other offices on the ballot have any choices at all - you "vote" like in Soviet Union. My district has been attached to a largely black section of Philadelphia so for Congress I can vote for an obscure black person who has zero chance of winning. The Democrat side is contested because the sitting Congressman (Chaka Fattah, the former Arthur Davenport) has been indicted by the Federal government for corruption but he remains on the ballot too. In the last election , he received 88% of the vote. I don't feel as if I am living in a Republic, I feel as if I am living in a farce. God Bless America.

    Jack, I was right there with you. I was living in West Philly for a few years in the 90s and was one of the few to cast a futile vote against then-“promising young candidate Chaka Fattah.”

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Didn't Prince write a comeback hit song for Chaka Fattah?
  213. @Harry Baldwin
    You may expect a call from Neal Gabler shortly. Just noticed his dog is limping, needs to borrow $400.

    LOL. I don’t have any money for him but I think I could spare a carton of eggs.

  214. @22pp22
    I have UK and NZ passports and now Cyprus permanent residency even if Britain leaves the EU. America is a very big place and interesting place and it might be fun to spend a little more than three months there.

    I'm definitely going to visit any states that vote for Trump in November (provided he wins the nomination). Their inhabitants will have earned my thanks in the form of large restaurant tips.

    Come on over!

  215. @Harry Baldwin
    He’s Goldwater–he won’t be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    If Trump isn't the next president, can there be a future Republican president? Hillary will open the floodgates to non-white immigrants.

    They’ve been open for years.

  216. @RadicalCenter
    Jack, I was right there with you. I was living in West Philly for a few years in the 90s and was one of the few to cast a futile vote against then-"promising young candidate Chaka Fattah."

    Didn’t Prince write a comeback hit song for Chaka Fattah?

  217. @Harry Baldwin
    He’s Goldwater–he won’t be the president, but a future Republican president will sound like him.

    If Trump isn't the next president, can there be a future Republican president? Hillary will open the floodgates to non-white immigrants.

    Eh, I don’t know. Depends how bad a job Hillary does and how long the newcomers take to get naturalized–unless they become citizens, they can’t vote.

  218. @Anonym
    From what I can see, there hasn't been a whole lot of holding back with ammo that might be used against Trump.

    Maybe some women are dissuaded from voting for Trump. OTOH, are they persuaded to vote for Hillary? And you do realize that the moment they start attacking Trump for perceived misogyny, Trump goes to town on Bill Clinton and Hillary's enabling of his indiscretions and nastiness. That's not a rock she should want to turn over.

    Trump is a competitor. I don't see Clinton bringing that same positioning of strengths vs weaknesses that Trump will bring to this fight. I see the general characterized by a lot of Democrats and Independents staying home, or voting for Trump. And I see Trump's base - that is, anyone who has been gifted with a shot to actually vote for someone who will do something to further their interest - mobilizing like they may never have that chance again.

    True, but there are a lot of suburban types who are afraid he’s unpredictable.

    The guy’s had three wives–lots of women are afraid the guy will stray and they’ll become the ‘first wife’. Sure, they can clean up in divorce, but if you want to raise a family it’s not the best thing.

  219. @SteveO
    Trump won Montgomery County, MD, but by the lowest percentage in the state. With 99% of the votes counted:

    Trump 39%
    Kasich 35%
    Cruz 22%

    (The source for these numbers and the PA primary results below is the current cnn.com tally.)

    Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Trump also won every county, but the county where he performed worst was Chester County - McMansion country and the richest county in the state. This should raise a little concern with Trump supporters, given that ChesCo was the only Philadelphia area county to go for Romney - albeit barely - in 2012.

    Chester County, PA 2012 Presidential election (source: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/pennsylvania/):

    Romney, 49.7%, 123,280 votes
    Obama, 49.2%, 122,232 votes

    Chester County, PA 2016 Republican Primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 47%, 35,577
    Kasich, 31%, 23,855
    Cruz, 20%, 14,996

    In neighboring Montgomery County (PA - same name, different state), second richest in the state, Trump also scored less than 50%. Chester and Montgomery are the only two counties in Pennsylvania where Trump earned less than 50% of the vote.

    Montgomery County, PA 2016 Republican primary, 100% of votes counted:

    Trump, 48%, 51,444
    Kasich, 29%, 31,228
    Cruz, 20%, 21,395

    (Obama carried MontCo 57%-42% in 2012.)

    The softness of Trump support in these key counties is something to keep an eye on. Overall this was a tremendous night for the Donald, but it's still a long, tough road to the Capitol steps on January 20, 2017, and a lot of it lies through places like the Philadelphia suburbs. (The same can be said for the Northern Virginia DC suburbs, which will be vital in winning that state.)

    The underlying story hasn't changed since the last big round of primaries: Trump must find a way to broaden his appeal with middle- and upper-middle-class voters. The best way to do that is to tone down the bluster, stop mocking people like a middle-schooler, and sound like a President, not a reality TV star.

    “in Pennsylvania, Trump also won every county, but the county where he performed worst was Chester County – McMansion country and the richest county in the state.”

    Actually his worst county was Lancaster County, home of goofy Protestant religious fanatics who went for Cruz. 44% for Trump, 31.6% for Cruz.

    “In neighboring Montgomery County (PA – same name, different state), second richest in the state, Trump also scored less than 50%.”

    Yes, based on soft support in two areas.

    1) In 1%er land, Kasich beat Trump. That is Lower Merion Township, Narberth Borough on the Main Line, and Bryn Athyn Borough. This is the home territory of the ruling elite and includes all the large estate suburban areas with $5 million plus multi-acre estate homes.

    2) In 10%er land, Trump won, but with support in the 38-45% range due to higher Kasich support. This is the well-off collar Townships around Philadelphia with lots of professionals. Includes Whitemarsh, Springfield, Cheltenham, Abington, Upper Dublin, Lower Gwynedd, and Upper Gwynedd Townships and Jenkintown and Ambler Boroughs. These are the traditional streetcar and commuter rail suburbs built out to a great extent before 1940.

    3) Trump did much better in the ordinary suburban areas of Montgomery County. He got majorities in Lower Moreland, Upper Merion, West Norriton, Limerick, Lower and Upper Providence, Horsham, Upper and Lower Pottsgrove and Hatfield Townships for example. These are what I would call newer suburbs and exurbs from the Interstate era. He also won all the old industrial boroughs and working class Townships in Montgomery Township.

    A similar pattern was seen in Philadelphia. Kasich won outright the Republican vote in the 1%er Wards 5, 8, 15, 24, 27, and 30 in Center City and Wards 9, 22, and 59 (Chestnut Hill, West Mt Airy, West Germantown), again heavy on the mega wealthy and professionals. Trump crushed it elsewhere, including surprisingly wealthy Ward 38 (East Falls) – home of Gov Rendell and Sen Specter and the late Princess Grace. In Northeast and South Philadelphia, the River Wards (Port Richmond, Bridesburg, Jensington), and Roxborough, Trump was getting close to 75% of the GOP vote – rather like Staten Island (and also like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area in NE PA).

    A bigger takeaway is that Republicans are a small minority (just 15-35% of the general electorate) in many of these elite/professional 1%er/10%er areas already in PA. Losing a bunch of bitter Kasich voters there to Hillary since they are desperate for illegals and slop from the government and don’t want to look bad to their Democrat friends really doesn’t add up to much compared to the middle and working class people Trump is pulling in and his overwhelming support among regular middle class Republicans.

  220. @Jack Hanson
    Way to miss the point.

    Steve is basically engaging in Cohenism: mendaciously arguing the most obliquely related of data points in order to bolster his far fetched hypothesis while engaging in wishful daydreaming (re:Hillary the dependable moderate) & ignoring the obvious facts that fly in his face.

    For ‘obvious facts’, there are national polls showing Hillary has the advantage over Trump by about 9 points…

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    When did he say Hillary was moderate? He said Trump probably wasn’t going to win because the media was going to try to take him down and plenty of embarrassing stuff could surface.

    Again, just because Steve might want Trump to win doesn’t mean Steve thinks Trump will win. I want to sleep with Scarlett Johansson, but that doesn’t mean I think I will. 😉

    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Relying on polls that are 7 months out is proving my points about mendacious argument and wishful thinking better than I ever could. Thank you.

    Lmbo - that boogeyman of THE MEDIA is what is keeping Steve wringing his hands. Yeah cause it's been a real cakewalk for Trump ever since he stood up and spoke the truth about illegal aliens. No, Trump is going to play THE MEDIA like he has all through this campaign.

    The reality is that Steve is upset because the avatar of his views sells steaks with his name on it vs. Being "presidential" like Mittens Romney. That's where this ridiculous reasoning comes from.
  221. It’s not just demography. The R electorate as a whole is moving toward Trump.

    The reason is that the conceptual distinction between a plurality and majority is beyond the average R’s IQ. (Also, the first-to-the-post character of many American elections, together with the 2-party system, makes American system perhaps in general more pluralitarian than majoritarian.) So R voters are increasingly put off by Cruz and Kasich’s manipulations to win in a brokered convention after the plurality has spoken. (A valid consideration even for a majoritarian, since the voters are general ignorant about the delegates except regarding their pledged votes.)

    • Agree: AP
  222. @Expletive Deleted

    Hillary has another stroke: I doubt she’s had one in the past.
     
    Dunno 'bout that. I was stupidly goggling at all the Stuff on CNN last night instead of sleeping, and was impressed both by Slick Willy's utterly unengaged "Yea, hi, whatever, Hil. I'm outta here, what're all you folks doing after?" post-oration stage invasion, and by Hildebeest's flesh-creeping resemblance to the late Cilla Black(footnotes for non-inselaffen). Could not shake it.
    Cilla, who blew a gasket (subarachnoid hem.) in her villa age 72, having been gladhanding and joshing with the punters at the airport, and looking "radiant", only a couple of days previous.
    HRC is 68. "Surprise, surprise!" ??

    I was well aware of Cilla Black. I read everything I could about the Beatles when I was young, and she figures in their story. Didn’t know she passed away. Sad.

  223. For ‘obvious facts’, there are national polls showing Hillary has the advantage over Trump by about 9 points…

    1. Presidents are not elected by popular vote. The more convincingly a candidate wins a big state like CA, the less meaningful national polls become in predicting the winner.
    2. “In a head-to-head matchup of each party’s frontrunner, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by only 3 percentage points nationally (46 to 43; 11 percent undecided). Comparatively, Mr. Sanders fares slightly better against Mr. Trump (51/40/10).”

  224. New England is the Godless corner of the country. More believers in sin city NV than here.
    Trump fits right in.

  225. @SFG
    For 'obvious facts', there are national polls showing Hillary has the advantage over Trump by about 9 points...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    When did he say Hillary was moderate? He said Trump probably wasn't going to win because the media was going to try to take him down and plenty of embarrassing stuff could surface.

    Again, just because Steve might want Trump to win doesn't mean Steve thinks Trump will win. I want to sleep with Scarlett Johansson, but that doesn't mean I think I will. ;)

    Relying on polls that are 7 months out is proving my points about mendacious argument and wishful thinking better than I ever could. Thank you.

    Lmbo – that boogeyman of THE MEDIA is what is keeping Steve wringing his hands. Yeah cause it’s been a real cakewalk for Trump ever since he stood up and spoke the truth about illegal aliens. No, Trump is going to play THE MEDIA like he has all through this campaign.

    The reality is that Steve is upset because the avatar of his views sells steaks with his name on it vs. Being “presidential” like Mittens Romney. That’s where this ridiculous reasoning comes from.

  226. @Svigor

    It seemed weird because he now comes across as somewhat non-Trump, though he doesn’t come out and say it like Beck.
     
    Rush seems a lot less earnest about partisan politics than Beck does. Beck seems to wear his heart on his sleeve at all times.

    I just don’t like, or trust, him anymore.
     
    I'm not sure I've ever liked him in any straightforward way (short version, I like him in a "he may be a bastard, but he's our bastard), and I've never trusted him. I just distrust him less than the rest.

    It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
     
    Yeah, there are signs that the media has shifted to playing rope-a-dope with Trump until the nominations are over. There's also the fact that Americans don't trust the media any further than they can throw it. I suppose we're going find out how far down that attitude penetrates.

    And once again, the guy who coined the term “Occam’s Butterknufe” is using baroque triple bankshot reasoning to explain why Trump is going to have “problems” in November.

    Why? Cause the idea of the host of The Apprentice as POTUS gives him the vapors.

    Steve please tell us how Cruz, running for High Patriarch of Jesusland, would do in November. TIA.
     
    His point was that "stuff happens" swings both ways, and he's right.

    His point was that “stuff happens” swings both ways, and he’s right.

    I agree.

  227. Recession: low oil prices have been good for the US economy.

    No, low crude oil prices have done a lot of damage to the US econ-o-me, in terms of increased oil sector unemployment, distressed loans owed by small oil exploration and production firms*, and oil firm market capitalization losses.

    The predicted boom in consumer spending due to lower fuel prices hasn’t happened.

    The Saudis are US puppets who won’t cut the flow of oil until they’re told to do so.

    No, seriously, higher oil prices in the $45-$65 range help selfish USA interests more than they hurt. Yes, much higher oil prices approaching $100/barrel, are not beneficial to America.

    * The big names such as Exxon, Chevron, or Shell, have not been the leaders in unconventional oil extraction in North America. Smaller companies you’ve never heard of are the frackers.

  228. @Bad Memories
    Indeed, but you missed the point.

    She was one of the people who don't matter.

    It is possible that 'they' wanted to warn Ted.

    And just who are ‘they’? Did ‘they’ drive the car and decline to raise the alarm or report the accident?

    After Chappaquiddick, Ted Kennedy changed neither his policy stance or personal behavior.

  229. @Steve Sailer
    I wondered about the interaction of Halloween/All Saints Day and Election Day when I was a kid. The explanation I heard I was told is that it's not related, it's just that the first of the month comes with various business obligations, so that's ruled out to movie Election Day to as unimportant a date as possible.

    But you probably have a better memory that, as a Catholic schoolboy, on November 1st you were able to lounge around at home with your Halloween loot while your public school friends had to go to school!

  230. @Anonym
    From what I can see, there hasn't been a whole lot of holding back with ammo that might be used against Trump.

    Maybe some women are dissuaded from voting for Trump. OTOH, are they persuaded to vote for Hillary? And you do realize that the moment they start attacking Trump for perceived misogyny, Trump goes to town on Bill Clinton and Hillary's enabling of his indiscretions and nastiness. That's not a rock she should want to turn over.

    Trump is a competitor. I don't see Clinton bringing that same positioning of strengths vs weaknesses that Trump will bring to this fight. I see the general characterized by a lot of Democrats and Independents staying home, or voting for Trump. And I see Trump's base - that is, anyone who has been gifted with a shot to actually vote for someone who will do something to further their interest - mobilizing like they may never have that chance again.

    Yet the very first person I know who climbed onto the Trump bandwagon was a woman, my girlfriend. But her hospital sees the worst depredations inflicted by open borders, so it makes sense.

  231. And 2 more via Drudge this morning:

    Commentary: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton

    John Kasich argues he’s the only guy who can beat Clinton, an idea mostly predicated on his performance in head-to-head election polls. But head-to-head polls this far out, historically speaking, are not all that predictive

    24% Opt Out of a Clinton-Trump Race

    (has Trump and Hillary tied)

    ***

    It’s not ridiculous to think “acting presidential” is one of the traits that many, if not most, voters want in a president. Or that the mass media are good at spinning perceptions over time.

    In Indiana, the Deal to Stop Trump May Be Backfiring

    They didn’t let that go on for long without pouring cold water on it, did they?

    They seem to have concluded that Hillary’s going to crush Trump, so they might as well help him lock up the 1237 and avoid a brokered convention.

    Or maybe it’s just Drudge bait to get clicks.

  232. It really is too bad that Trump thinks that his assholery is necessary for him to succeed. I assume this is because he thinks that his behavior is some part of what is attracting his support. Of course it is his willingness to champion the middle class (immigration, jobs, foreign policy) that attracts the support.

    But even with his defects, I say, vote Trump!

    I think Trump has a real point when he attributes his success in the Republican race to his WWF style. It garnered him a lot of attention that he wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. But now it’s time for him to put that away and start acting presidential, I think. If he spends the next 7 months doing so, while sticking to the substance of his positions, I think he’ll win over enough of the over-socialized demos to win the general. People have short memories.

  233. It might come down to how smart and strong-willed Trump really is; if he can put away any need to validate his gauche image.

  234. Think out of the box: acting un-presidential might well be Trump’s strongest asset. Presidential has come to mean phony. Trump is good at being himself. He’s the kind of guy you find impossible not to like, even when his kind of personality should put you off.

    Also, what does presidential mean?
    Charismatic? Trump’s got it.
    Dignified? Trump looks stern.
    Avuncular? That’s him.

    Ok, so he can’t read a teleprompter or follow a script, or bite his tongue when he should. Nobody’s perfect. His frankness appeals to the crowds.

  235. I think Trump should be himself warts and all. If he tries to be different he’ll seem phony,

  236. @SteveO

    I think I would take Philadelphia over Baltimore any day.
     
    Well, I said "in so many ways", not "in every way". You're right about Philadelphia vs. Baltimore. Philadelphia is also a more interesting city than DC (not strictly speaking in Maryland, of course), although I wouldn't call it better. Just more interesting, especially if you like that sort of gritty, blue-collar ethnic, "Rocky" feel that Philly has and that is completely absent in Washington.

    If you like big Northeastern-type cities, this is all very relevant. If not - I don't - then it doesn't really matter. I lived in Maryland for 30 years and visited Baltimore city perhaps four times despite its being only a half-hour's drive away.

    It's a matter of personal taste and experience, of course, but overall Maryland remains a better place to live in my opinion. Yes, the taxes are higher, but the services are better. Greater affluence + higher taxes + more educated population = much better services.

    Besides, Maryland has Ledo pizza. What more needs to be said?

    I’m big on the Northeast – grew up in upstate NY (Rochester/Monroe County) – but I suppose I’m going with what an outsider knows about PA or MD (i.e., only the “hubs”). If I were to live in the countryside (quite possible if I stay in France; not likely if I ever return to the States) I would definitely have to take your admonitions into consideration. However, I should be interested to know exactly what you mean by “more educated” as given the state of the intelligentsia in America “more educated” people are often *not* better company than the alternative…

  237. @Anonym
    I guess humor is subjective. I like how it is played straight, and little touches like the music and the cover of the textbook, like it was a genuine college course. Ever taken a college math course? If you have, the whole discussion is done well IME... it's like the real thing. I love how the Bernie supporter seems reasonable at first, until the mask drops and the full brunt of passive aggressivism is displayed, and then back at attempts at being reasonable. And the delusion, the cultlike behavior, it worked well.

    Ok fair enough. I think I like caustic straight to point humor better.

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