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Does Anybody Ever Question Raj Chetty?
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From an interview in Vox:

Are red or blue areas more mobile?

Ezra Klein: Because you’ve done such granular work on which neighborhoods throughout the US provide opportunity, I’m curious if you’ve developed a view on whether political ideology plays a role here. Does living in a more blue or red area have a significant impact on opportunity?

Raj Chetty: When you look regionally, you tend to find that the highest levels of upward mobility are in the Great Plains and some parts of the coast, while you have far lower levels in much of the Southeast. If you were to just take that data you will find essentially a zero correlation with Republican and Democratic voters.

If you zoom into local areas, you will find that a lot of the variation in upward mobility is actually coming from neighborhoods that are just a few miles apart from each other — often within the same city. There are parts of the Bay Area, for example, like Redwood City, that are relatively affordable with quite high rates of upward mobility. But just a few miles down the road in East Palo Alto, you find much lower levels of upward mobility.

Nobody except me ever calls Raj Chetty on his examples. Redwood City and East Palo Alto, for instance, are not obscure, remote places, they are near Stanford in the Silicon Valley. A huge number of smart people have some familiarity with them.

Redwood City is home to Oracle, a vast corporation founded by zillionaire Larry Ellison. I spent 9 days in one of Oracles five skyscrapers in Redwood City shepherding an M&A deal in 1994. The 2010 Census reported that Redwood City’s demographics are:

  • 40.9% white
  • 38.8% Hispanic
  • 10.7% Asian
  • 2.4% black
  • 1.0% Pacific Islander

Average rent in Redwood City is $3,336.

Recall Chetty’s methodology (at least as of 2015): compare the income of parents in 1996-2000 to the incomes of their children (around age 30) in 2011-2012. Blacker areas do not do well in Chetty’s studies because while everybody tends to regress toward their mean, blacks tend to regress toward a lower mean income. On the other hand, Hispanics, while averaging a lower mean income as well, are less likely to regress downward relative to their parents because so many of their parents were poor immigrants struggling with the English language.

East Palo Alto was the Murder Capital of America in 1992, although it has improved greatly in safety since then due (down from 42 homicides in 1992 to 1 in 2017) to Hispanics replacing blacks. Crime, by the way, is a big factor in Chetty’s findings about income mobility: if you have a black son, for example, you don’t want to raise him in a neighborhood with lots of black street gangs, because of the high risk that he will grow up to have an income that consists of pennies per hour making licenses plates in the State pen.

In 2010 East Palo Alto’s demographics were:

  • 6.2% white
  • 16.7% black
  • 64.5% Hispanic
  • 7.5% Pacific Islander
  • 3.8% Asian

Average rent in East Palo Alto is now $2,746, due to rapid gentrification in recent years.

The post 2010 gentrification of East Palo Alto has brought rents closer together, but obviously Redwood City has the superior demographics for the purposes of Chetty’s analyses.

With the rapid decline of East Palo Alto’s black population and levels of violence, it might well be that Hispanicizing East Palo Alto no longer has the Tragic Dirt observed by Chetty’s methodology. The Wikipedia page on East Palo Alto (which, by the way, is north of Palo Alto, not east) is fairly frank, franker than Chetty:

43% of East Palo Alto’s residents were African Americans in 1990,[7] which was the result of redlining practices and racial deed restrictions in Palo Alto.[8] Latinos now constitute about 65% of the total population, while the proportion of African Americans has decreased to about 15%. A small minority of Pacific Islanders also reside in East Palo Alto, most of Tongan, Samoan and Fijian origin.[citation needed]. East Palo Alto has the largest concentration of Pacific Islanders of any American city or town outside Hawaii.[citation needed].

East Palo Alto has seen a dramatic drop in violent crime in the last 20 years, including a 97.6% reduction in murders from 1992 to 2017. In the past, East Palo Alto experienced profound crime and poverty, especially during the 1980s and early 1990s. In 1992, it had the highest homicide rate in the country with 24,322 people, and 42 murders, equaling a rate of 172.7 homicides per 100,000 residents.[9] In 2017, it had only one murder.[10]

The prosperity that benefited the Silicon Valley during the dot-com boom of the late 1990s largely bypassed East Palo Alto. The Ravenswood City School District, which serves East Palo Alto and part of adjoining Menlo Park, has struggled with low academic performance.[citation needed] Eventually, however, the Peninsula’s shortage of land and soaring property prices meant that even East Palo Alto became an option for urban regeneration. Until recently, gentrification has been rare in East Palo Alto. …

Over 25% of East Palo Alto (400+ acres) has been bulldozed and replaced with brand new housing and brand-name retail establishments over the last 10–15 years,[6] including IKEA, Target, Home Depot, Nordstrom Rack, Togo’s, Starbucks, Office Depot, Mi Pueblo Food Center, PGA Tour Superstore, 6 to 9 Dental, Jamba Juice and Izzy’s Brooklyn Bagels, attracting an entirely new demographic.[13] The University Square community has become particularly appealing to young high-tech professionals and high-income couples, including many employees from Google, Facebook, Sun Microsystems, Yahoo!, and various other software and startup companies.[14]

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  1. Steve may be surprised to learn that East Palo Alto, previously known as the EPA, famous for its murder rate and assaulting pizza delivery guys, sports a Four Seasons East Palo Alto.

    If that’s not the non plus ultra of gentrification, I don’t know what is.

    Granted, the hotel is west of the 101, but is officially a Four Seasons East (!) Palo Alto.


    • Replies: @International Jew
  2. Bruno says:

    The journalists would strongly object to « superior demographics » predicate. It would surely be related to alleged « white superiority » without distortion I guess.

    The NYT new paradigm will certainly have him starting citing you a hell of a lot more than they do. As your frequently citing them, it could be very good for HBD people in general and UNZ in particular.

    I don’t think they have realized that putting the race theory into the open discussion can backfire greatly at this time.

  3. Bruno says:

    An economist who would take on Acemoglu institutional and Cherry location theories with a simpler ethnic analysis, comparing the predictive and explicative models would be in a very strong position.

    Because scientific journal – at the end – can’t resist scientific debate when it is settled in the current fashionable theories terms. There is a spot for an intelligent (courageous and ambitious) HBD economist .

    • Replies: @Aft
  4. BB753 says:

    Perhaps nobody questions Chetty because he has all of that sentitive IRS material on all Americans?

  5. Aft says:

    At least some of his data looks to be publicly available. You should tweet at this guy to add in basic confounds (race, house prices, parental SES) and see what actually pops out.

    My guess is Raj and everyone involved knows they’re selling a scam here.

    They do seem to be onto other interesting trends:

    Among those who grow up in families with comparable incomes, black men grow up to earn substantially less than the white men. In contrast, black women earn slightly more than white women conditional on parent income. Moreover, there is little or no gap in wage rates or hours of work between black and white women.
    We find analogous gender differences in other outcomes: black-white gaps in high-school completion rates, college attendance rates, and incarceration are all substantially larger for men than for women. Black women have higher college attendance rates than white men, conditional on parental income. For men, the gap in incarceration is particularly stark: 21% of black men born to the lowest- income families are incarcerated on a given day, far higher than for any other subgroup.

    So black men refuse to work and commit a lot of crime, and yet there seems to be reverse racism favoring black women… Not so compatible with all that “racism” we here so much about supposedly holding everyone back.

  6. bomag says:

    Raj Chetty: poster child for the limited usefulness of academia.

    His skill set seems to be in telling people what they want to hear. Works quite well for college admission essays and climbing the academic ladder.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  7. Arclight says:

    He does at least recognize the drag on life outcomes from living in communities with a lot of single moms…but of course there isn’t really any discussion of what groups have a bigger problem with it. There certainly isn’t going to be any scholarship in the massive uptick in single parenthood over the last 50 years because the left really doesn’t want to know the answer to that.

    • Replies: @Jesse
    , @pyrrhus
  8. KL says:

    Sailer’s explanation hardly differs from Chetty’s. Kids get upward mobility when rich job creators move into the neighborhood. The issue seems to be whether the positive spillover of rich kids living next to poor kids exceeds the negative impact of poor kids living next to rich kids.

    Chetty thinks spillover effects are concave. There are diminishing returns to having rich neighbors after you get one job. So we should try to homogenize the distribution to achieve a Benetton advertisement version of Norman Rockwell America.

    The alternative is a segregated society of ghettos and prosperous enclaves, tenuously related to merit. Then only the most talented strivers can migrate to access opportunity.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  9. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:

    Chetty is comparing parental income from 1996 to offspring income in 2012, traced by dependent SSNs, which were added to the 1040s in the late ‘80s. So he’s comparing specific parent-child units, with no averaging of groups. If a kid moves away from the neighborhood, he still counts. Did that particular kid do better or worse than his parents?

    So Chetty’s results are that the whites and blacks and others in Redwood City do better than their corresponding racial doppelgängers in East Palo Alto. This makes sense and is probably correct.

    The problem is whether that is because of the magic dirt, or because of the tragic DNA (the idea that only genetic losers live in East Palo Alto). I’m sure he controls for race, doesn’t he? He may not emphasize that in his abstracts, but takes that into account, doesn’t he?

    • Replies: @peterike
  10. Does Anybody Ever Question Raj Chetty?

    You’ll find no Republican Party politician whore questioning Raj Chetty because all the Republican Party politician whores are gutless pukes.

    Raj Chetty is just a lantern holder corporate propaganda whore for the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire. His role is to use subversion and subtlety and Third World sanctimony to stifle and squash any and all discussions of genetic differences between European Christians and Jews and Mestizos and Blacks and Asians and Mulattos and the like.

    Raj Chetty is just a stooge boy prostitute with a PH-D, otherwise known as a Pee Aitch Dee. Martin Feldstein and Lawrence Katz, Raj Chetty’s Harvard doctoral advisors, who I presume were complete and total Jews, most likely steered Raj Chetty away from looking at ethnicity and race and ancestors and the like. Do you think unscrupulous turds such as Feldstein and Katz were going on and on about David Hackett Fischer’s Albion’s Seed: Four British Folkways In America?

    Hypocrite baby boomer turd rat Hillary Clinton, who loves to accuse us deplorables of racism and other same such swear words of the JEW/WASP ruling class, gave an audience to Raj Chetty in 2015 where I’m sure she went crazy with praise for this fake, phony fraud bastard Raj Chetty. Did Raj Chetty tell that baby boomer rodent Hillary Clinton to avoid going out to Wisconsin to campaign against Trump?

    And another thing, neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton have any colonial American ancestry. So Trump and Hillary Clinton don’t have the ancestry that would allow them to tell the non-White and non-Christian and non-European sonofabitches to go straight to Hell when they start in with the type of crap that Raj Chetty and his ilk are peddling!

    Chetty Chetty Ain’t Got No Bang Bang In His Crappy Obfuscations About Race And Ethnicity As Far As I’m Concerned!

    On my father’s side I have colonial American ancestry from the 1600s and at least a couple of ancestors who fought in the American Secessionary War from the British Empire.

    Tweet from 2015:

    • Replies: @Kronos
  11. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:

    By the way, Steve, why don’t you e-mail Chetty for an e-mail interview? At the worst it would give you a post or a Taki piece a la “I asked Raj Chetty for an interview, and he blew me off.”

    Another suggestion: Call him on the phone. Academics generally are reachable on the phone in my experience. Ask for an e-mail interview. Early a.m. or an hour or two after business hours is when you can get the big guy answering his own phone, I’ve found.

  12. Vox bills Chetty as “the most influential economist alive” and a “shoo-in” for a Nobel prize.

    But he hasn’t discovered any usable insight or developed any coherent model or theory of Magic Dirt.

    The hype is really inexplicable. Hopefully, you can’t win a Nobel these days solely for media puff pieces.

  13. L Woods says:

    He’ll fit right in with the rest of that dismal “science” then.

  14. @Hypnotoad666

    Hopefully, you can’t win a Nobel these days solely for media puff pieces.

    Well, if the Øb☭ma could get one just for being an articulate black guy …

  15. dearieme says:

    He has no chance of a Nobel prize. Maybe Vox is referring to the counterfeit prize.

  16. What is the saying, that any headline in the form of a question can be answered with “no”?

    • Replies: @res
  17. @Hypnotoad666

    Depends on the prize; a prime example is Obama’s Nobel peace prize. Of course, the standards for that award had deteriorated significantly over the years as it was given to various despots.

    • Replies: @Doc Dynamo
  18. Heckman has a beef with Chetty although this is the only popular press writing I have seen about it:

    There is a conference video of Heckman taking chetty to task as well on more technical issues.

  19. @Hypnotoad666

    You can win a Nobel these days for doing nothing at all. (See Lugash’s example above) Is the hype really inexplicable?

    So far, it seems Mr. Chetty’s great project really is in service of Magic Dirt Theory. Give him time, and he may very well come up with an epicycle that masquerades as a proof.

    • Agree: GermanReader2
  20. Jesse says:

    Single mothers are not, in and of themselves, a problem. It’s what the tendency to become one signifies that’s a problem. All those women getting and staying married to their baby daddies, in today’s world – ie, not the economy of the 50s – would make precisely no difference.

    Single mothers are the cargo cult of the right. It’s easier to talk about than innate genetics. When they complain that, say, blacks have so many kids out of wedlock, what they really mean is that they want blacks to have far fewer children, overall. The dogwhistling enrages your opponents and the cowardice turns off potential supporters.

  21. Chetty’s value is, the Special People can point to him and say, “Look! An Indian guy who has none of the supposed implicit biases and spites and tropes and canards attributed to us Specials. He’s Indian! And yet, he has discovered an abstract, rigorous, scientific, objective method of social analysis which, as luck would have it, just happens to Harm the Goyim. What’s not to like?”

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Disagree: Vinteuil
  22. peterike says:

    The 2010 Census reported that Redwood City’s demographics are:

    10.7% Asian

    I would assume that’s probably tripled by now or more. The Asian Invasion has proceeded remarkably in the last 19 years.

  23. Waiting for someone to ask,”Is it Pale Magic Dirt that helps upward mobility, Mr. Chetty?”

  24. eD says:

    I have to be the guy to point out that the economics “Nobel” isn’t actually a Nobel prize and its a mystery as to why the Nobel estate hasn’t sued the central bank of Sweden to stop it from passing its prize off as one of the Nobel prizes.

    • LOL: Bruno
    • Replies: @Bruno
  25. Barnard says:

    Question from Klein:

    In a study you released a number a years ago, you showed that having a good teacher early in your life has a huge impact on lifetime earnings

    He goes on to propose raising teacher pay to $100k average nationwide which will result in everyone getting really great teachers. Klein later says the best way to improve health care would be to triple the taxes on tobacco and says one of the biggest problems with people’s health is individual choice. While these are not terribly bright people, it is clear they want to rule over us and control even the most minute portions of our lives. Several of the things they say are self evidently wrong if not obviously stupid. That is the common theme running through the entire conversation between Klein and Chetty, they think they are geniuses who can socially engineer a solution to any problem. They are total blank slaters who think genetics contribute nothing to human behavior and offer absurdly simplistic solutions. People are fat and unhealthy, why we’ll just raise taxes on tobacco and high fructose corn syrup through the roof, what’s a black market?

    There appears to be very few people working in mainstream journalism who think giving the technocrats total control of our lives needs to be questioned. Maybe a few are trying to push back and editors won’t let them write about it.

    • Replies: @SaneClownPosse
  26. Moses says:

    Did Obama get the Nobel Peace Prize before or after he pumped in 100k more American soldiers into Afghanistan to get their limbs blown off by IUDs?

    • Replies: @Ancient Briton
  27. anon[127] • Disclaimer says:

    Chetty is going to have a hard time explaining why the magic dirt loses its magic over time in the neighborhoods he studies. He can’t just say “black folks moved in”.

    • Replies: @danand
  28. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:

    Straight outa ….east Palo Alto

  29. Moses says:

    Ripping this off from another commenter in an earlier Chetty thread, but repeating here because I find it hilarious. My embellished version:

    Chetty’s research revealed that neighborhood upward mobility correlated closely with increases in the percentage of neighborhood residents driving late-model Mercedes-Benz automobiles.

    “The conclusion is that higher concentrations of late-model German imports increase the earning power and upward mobility of American families,” Chetty said.

    “The logical next step is new government programs to get as many disadvantaged families into late-model German imported automobiles as possible. Presto! Poverty problem solved.”

    Chetty’s groundbreaking work has led many to speculate that he is a shoo-in for the Nobel Prize in Economics this year.

    Hilarious because it’s basically what he’s saying! Amazing that no one has yet called out the emperor for not wearing any clothes.

    • Agree: GermanReader2
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  30. Hopscotch says:

    Does anyone know if Raj Chetty (or any other economist) has looked at assortative, dual-income marriages? It’s impossible not to notice this trend in the Bay Area (or NYC or DC…).

    Educated dual-income couples with 1-2 kids drive up the cost of schools and childcare (and housing around decent schools). This pinches the middle class, who in normal times, would also see their incomes rise. But with open borders, most blue collar jobs are bid downward, basically removing the floor out from under the middle class. Aspiring middle-class whites are skeeved out by the thought of their children falling into a downwardly-mobile, Anglo-Hispanic demographic. So they flee to lower cost, lower opportunity places.

    This reinforces the trend, requiring even more immigrants to compensate for fleeing whites. It also creates a ripple effect of creating a “Bowling Alone” culture, since women will need to work to keep the family in the middle class. And face it, women tend to create the social bonds that hold local communities together. Chetty’s map seems to be explained by: (1) blacks are not upwardly mobile (the south), (2) places where there are fewer dual income households (midwest, texas) are probably good for lower-to-middle-class children.

    People can say what they want about her, but as far as I know, Elizabeth Warren is the only candidate who has spoken about this issue, even if her prescriptions for the problem are way off.

  31. Bruno says:

    It is managed by the Nobel foundation ! And if it’s not called Nobel prize it’s because it wasn’t established by Alfred Nobel himself.

    And it was created by the bank of Sweden with the agreement of the Nobel foundation that delivers it. I suppose the money comes from the central bank though.

    So writing « Prize in honour of Alfred Nobel » instead of
    Nobel prize each time is just repeating a boring historical precision.

  32. I suspect they “question him” in the same fashion the mainstream media “questions” Democratic Presidential Candidates:

    “What has been the greatest challenge in terms of…”

    “Some of the attacks leveled against you by far right hate groups… How do you explain it to your children and how does it make you feel?”

    (As opposed to: “How, Sir, do you account for the fact that an overwhelming preponderance of groups characterized by the SPLC as ‘hate groups’ support you and does the increasing level of violence from these groups trouble you?”)

  33. Does living in a more blue or red area have a significant impact on opportunity?

    Time-saving rule of thumb: Assume to be a moron anyone who

    • uses gender for sex,

    • talks of this or that “generation”, outside of a family, whether positively or negatively

    • resorts to this bogus red and blue color scheme

    • Agree: Jesse
    • Replies: @M Krauthammar
    , @J.Ross
  34. I will question this Chetty guy whenever I will have the opportunity to.
    He makes Black majority neighborhoods look like hellholes, as if children born to those parents will never ever be successful in their lives.
    Chetty will pay for betraying the people of color.
    He is perfidious, avaricious and an opportunist. Such egregious, short sighted men shall never withstand the power of our Black sisters who never wanted the Black Bodies of their male relatives be taken away from them.
    You people, will not understand the pain of a sista. They suffer from all sorts of oppression.

  35. Altai says:

    Being a confident upper caste Indian academic in the social/economic ‘sciences’ is like the walking around with purpose in a fluorescent vest of academia/public ‘intellectualism’, nobody asks any questions, it’s assumed you know what you’re doing. You can get away with a lot.

    • Replies: @Aft
  36. @Reg Cæsar

    You will never understand the oppressed and the voice with which they oppose it
    Black music is a thing of value which ought to be owned by black people because they created it. Thhere would be no ‘American’; music without blacks, that the black race should get royalty checks on whites were given credit for. I declare that because blacks were characters in all Southern literature that blacks also should receive checks for sales of Willam Faulkner novels.

    That ownership ought to be protected by American copyright law, which like American citizenship is a thing of value which is part of the common heritage of all mankind.

  37. pyrrhus says:

    Everyone knows the answer to that…the left, and the PC Republicans, don’t want to acknowledge the reason for that…

  38. @Hypnotoad666

    The hype is really inexplicable

    Raj Chetty’s success is a nigh-perfect example for a consumer-oriented scientific market, hehe. There indeed is a strong demand for his findings, and that makes him a scientific star and a big voice. His scientific stardom is perfectly reasonable as long as you look at it from this well established economic perspective.*****

    Plus: He does work with big scale data sets which often times are indeed quite telling. Just what these data sets are telling is not what the public (and Chetty) are saying about them.

    The insightful man who makes reasonable sense of Chetty’s data is the hardly known Californian
    iSteve blogger on …

    The public would have to make a distinction between scientific findings and market-orientation. Something, which Erich Fromm discussed at length, for example. – – – If such distinctions like the one between success and truth are not held dear, a society loses its rational basis (= its basis for rational arguments).

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    , @eric
  39. res says:
    @Paleo Liberal

    I happen to enjoy iSteve’s rhetorical question headlines (and within post comments) though.

  40. I was just looking at the real estate prices in East Palo Alto using Zillow a few days ago. There are quite a few McMansions going up. By the way, Facebook now occupies the former Sun campus on the West side of the Dumbarton bridge (Sun Quentin). This straddles the border between Redwood City and East Palo Alto.

    • Replies: @International Jew
  41. @Jesse

    Speak for yourself. For me, what it’s about is fathers paying their kid’s way, rather than taxpayers.

    • Replies: @Jesse
  42. J.Ross says:

    The standard cartoon of an Indian “intellectual,” and the future of our culture.

  43. ‘Does Anybody Ever Question Raj Chetty?’

    He would seem to be a Trofim Lysenko for our times. I imagine it would be professionally inadvisable for anyone in his field to disagree with him.

  44. Hopscotch says:

    “The hype is really inexplicable”

    Chetty provides intellectual cover for moving highly-fertile NAM’s to low population Red States in order to demographically tilt the Electoral College over the coming decades.

    If he were recommending that Blue states replicate the policies of “magic dirt” Red States, he would be viewed as a conservative stooge, and relegated to the AEI. But since he’s recommending that Blue States export their population to the hinterlands, he is a visionary. Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma all have magic dirt. Whaddya, whaddya?

    • Replies: @anon
  45. peterike says:

    Chetty is comparing parental income from 1996 to offspring income in 2012, traced by dependent SSNs, which were added to the 1040s in the late ‘80s. So he’s comparing specific parent-child units,

    So then, if your dad made a fortune in some tech company back in, say, the 2000 tech bubble, and you decided that since you know you’re backstopped by a family fortune that you could “follow your bliss” and become, say, a struggling screen writer or an English professor at a two-bit college, that you would show up in Chetty’s data as having dropped in income, even though you know you’ll be getting $30 million when Pop croaks it, and that Pop pays for you to live way over what you could afford on your own.

  46. J.Ross says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    I could add to this the entire All Things Considered show that aired yesterday, much of which was about pornographically dwadling on the emotional impact of criminals getting caught for having committed crimes, but especially the statements of a gay black democrat politician in DC (who is apparently crack free) incensed that illegal immigrants were arrested in his bailiwick. He had a spate of especially proud stupidity, on trend of cliche, and pure meaninglessness. Below the fold and with drinking game:

    obvious or repetition – vodka
    nonsense – gin
    fashionable stupidity – whiskey
    untruth or unproven assertion taken for granted – rum
    false start or incomplete organization – tequila


    TODD: Sure. I think that we have to push back on Trump’s policies, and this is one of the president’s policies [vodka]. What we know is we do have to care for these young people [rum] – period, point blank [gin]. They have to be cared for [vodka], and they have to be cared for safely and be cared for in a good manner [four horsemen]. But I don’t believe that this is the way to do it. No one reached out [whiskey] to me, to my staff, for that matter. I found out because I got a call from a reporter that this was even occurring. And so therein lies the problem, number one [tequila]. The organization that received the grant dollars to do this work – the first thing they should have done is reached out to the local elected officials.

    MARTIN: Bottom line, what should they do? Children need to be housed somewhere until permanent decisions can be made about them. What, in your opinion, should happen?

    TODD: The federal government has to do a better job at communicating with their local partners about what the needs are and how we can be better partners [whiskey triple]. Because when you hear a proposal like this, people get very concerned [rum]. They get concerned of the quality of care that kids are receiving. Neighbors are very concerned [vodka]. Advisory groups are concerned. Literally, I’m on probably 30 neighborhood listservs, and at least 10 or 15 of them are talking about this issue [whiskey triple].

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  47. @Dieter Kief

    Raj Chetty’s success is a nigh-perfect example for a consumer-oriented scientific market, hehe.

    Dieter, That’s a sly observation about the application of market forces to economics itself. After all, how could an economist argue against the effects of Supply and Demand.

    One branch of economics is “public choice theory” which looks at politics as an economic game determined (like everything else) by individual players trying to maximize their profit.

    If someone hasn’t done so already, it’s ripe time to develop a “scientific choice theory” that looks at the incentives for generating the “right” scientific findings. The “Supply” of PC science findings is limited by the need to generate a minimally plausible basis for the claim that doesn’t destroy your credibility or get you convicted of academic fraud. The “Demand” for PC findings is of course generated by the MSM’s need to have “scientific” cover for its preferred policies.

    The profit-maximizing “Price” of PC science findings is the intersection of the Supply and Demand curves where the author maximizes his return in the form of status, celebrity, book deals, consulting gigs, and (fingers crossed) a Nobel Prize.

  48. Anon[287] • Disclaimer says:

    You don’t question the brahmin.

  49. bomag says:

    All those women getting and staying married to their baby daddies, in today’s world… would make precisely no difference.

    I’d think it would make some difference.

    • Replies: @Jesse
  50. @Moses

    IUDs? …where were they putting those limbs?

    • Replies: @FPD72
    , @Moses
  51. I lived for 8 years in the San Joaquin Valley – not a place seen in movies unless you count Pauly Shore’s unmemorable “Son In Law”…

    2.5 hours inland from the coast. Housing and a lot of grocery costs, actually about on par to Columbus Ohio. 100°+ degrees from May to September. The elites considered it pretty C-. Victor Davis Hanson lives up the road in Selma…

    60% white/40% Latino, no Blacks to speak of… but walking my dogs I had a nice woman ask me “where the Black family lives”… a split second of hesitation (I don’t keep track…) and I replied, “the Black
    Family lives in the house on the corner…” well, they did!

    Curiously, we were all pretty integrated – no trouble I saw… my co-workers brown & white were at my house for dinner often. Chicanos were overwhelmingly Trimp suppporters.

    Illegals weren’t a huge problem. The folks angriest were the Chicano 2d & 3d gen Chicanos. They used slurs I’d NEVER dream of using… not how I wanna raised.

    The Mess of California elites spills over to the rest of the state. Studies like this never account for the forgotten interior where the elites don’t live.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    , @Colin Wright
  52. JimB says:

    Raj Chetty’s full time employment is to use his knack for being a voluble Indian bullshitter to launch rhetorical smoke grenades. He has created a Rube Goldberg statistical confirmation bias machine to make the failure of non-whites look like the unfortunate accident of where they were born, not who they were born. It’s implicitly a defense for admitting tens of millions of people each decade from the shitholes of the world, including India, Latin America, and Africa.

    Nice work if you can get it.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @Aft
  53. @Moses

    Brilliant! (And credit too for whoever’s earlier comment inspired you.)

    Now, if only we could get those Mercedes drivers to buy American cars. (Mea culpa) There is a new Corvette, year 2020, finally now mid-engined, that they (I) should consider:

    (Sorry. It’s the White trash, indentured servant (White slave) from 300 years ago in me from my Southern mother’s side. I may actually buy this car after 20 years of Benzes and BMWs.)

    • Replies: @JimB
  54. @M Krauthammar

    Yours sincerely,

    Jackie Giles, Esq.
    Founder, Overseer and Sole Proprietor of the Law Firm:
    Outrageous, Egregious and Preposterous, LLP

    • Replies: @Thomm
  55. Thomm says:
    @Gary in Gramercy

    Chiles, not Giles :

    Plus, to mention his name here is to commit the greatest sin ever on a WN forum – point out an articulate black man who bedded a hot white chick (Teri Hatcher).

    “They’re real, and they’re spectacular”.

    • Replies: @FPD72
  56. Kronos says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    “Raj Chetty: When you look regionally, you tend to find that the highest levels of upward mobility are in the Great Plains and some parts of the coast, while you have far lower levels in much of the Southeast.”

    Ruh oh, the Great Plains better look out. Any idea who Clinton’s HUD secretary was supposed to be?

    I’d imagine white liberals were panting at the thought of Clinton’s HUD pick kicking inner city gentrification into overdrive. They’ve been paying for black underclass welfare/policing for 70 years now.

    Chetty’s whole reason for existence is to find suitable areas to absorb the dysfunctional black underclass. Thus freeing the long suffering Democratic Inner Cities of the worst demographic ever. (The more Republican their future homes are the better.) Everyone knows it’s Chetty’s findings are dubious but they REALLY want to hand over those hot potatoes to some other chump.

  57. Shmendrix says:

    I never quite understood how Redwood Shores was part of Redwood City, since it was adjacent to Belmont and San Carlos was fully between it and RWC. And it became all the more absurd when they finally connected it to Foster City.

    That is all.

    • Replies: @baythoven
  58. Art Deco says:
    @M Krauthammar

    There are always counter-examples one can cite, but, as a rule, black majority sections of a given metropolitan area have stupefying rates of violent crime, have disorderly schools, have decaying built environment, and have a truncated commercial sector. You want them to be something other than that, you have to impose strict discipline in the form of vigorous deployment of law enforcement and sequestration of trouble-makers in schools. That would be a good thing to do, but to do it you have to tell the vociferous element in and among the black bourgeoisie (and their auxilliaries in the academy and the NGO sector) to bugger off, because these types have few if any constructive ideas and reliably run interference for hoodlums. The people who grow up in such neighborhoods are generally headed for low-skill service sector employment when they don’t sort themselves out of the labor force entirely. The ones who manage to learn trades and careers that place them above the 25th percentile on the wage and salary scale tend to be people who grew up outside racial agglutinations of that sort (which most blacks do nowadays).

    • Replies: @JimB
  59. BB753 says:
    @M Krauthammar

    “You people, will not understand the pain of a sista. They suffer from all sorts of oppression.”

    Not so! We can understand the sort of oppression high blood rates, diabetes and gravity dragging down their big black bodies produce.

  60. Raj sees numbers, but doesn’t understand them.

  61. Hey Steve

    Speaking of Hindu “Americans”….Have you been reading Hindu “American” Padma Laksmi’s recent tweets lately?…..Now they openly taunt OUR PEOPLE….


    • Replies: @eah
  62. eah says:


    A few bizarre revelations/claims in this article:

    A $100,000 bribe got teen a UCLA soccer scholarship without even playing

    Re a different case than the one referred to in the headline:

    UCLA’s practice of admitting athletes with questionable athletic credentials — or none at all — has come under scrutiny in recent months, with a Bay Area couple admitting they paid Singer $250,000 to get their daughter into the school as a purported soccer player. Their daughter didn’t play soccer, but she was listed on the roster for a team that finished the 2017 season runner-up to national champion Stanford.

  63. danand says:

    “Chetty is going to have a hard time explaining why the magic dirt loses its magic over time in the neighborhoods he studies. He can’t just say “black folks moved in”.”


    In the case of East Palo Alto the dirt was anything but magic, I guess I’d call it “dismal dirt” up until a period beginning ~30 years ago. The “magic” happened when the blacks (African Americans) moved out and the browns (Mexican Americans) moved in. This really accelerated ~10 years ago when much the “remnant” AA residents lost their homes to foreclosure in the wake of 2008’s financial debacle.

    EPA is just another example of Magic Dirt theory turned on its head.

    On a coincidental note there is a contractor leveling the foundation (water line from the street broke; washed away dirt) of a house adjacent to mine. Contractor lives in EPA; moved from Redwood City 7 years ago. When I inquired as to how he liked EPA, his response was to complain about the traffic coming across the bridge (84): nothing about EPA’s once notorious crime or random gunfire.

    He also mentioned that a lot of Indians (dot) were moving into his old neighborhood in Redwood City. I would place a bet with 10-1 odds that the house under which he’s repairing the foundation (white/blonde couple bought it new in ’71 & died there) will next be occupied by born in India owners.

    Maybe that will imbibe it with some of that Chetty Magic?

  64. eric says:
    @Dieter Kief

    William Nordhaus’s Nobel for creating the economic macromodel that undergirds climate change models is an example of the econ Nobel being highly susceptible to fads. No economist uses such models outside of climate change because they do not work. They are the failed macromodeling approach of the 1970s, where it all seems like it could work, but after they failed miserably in the 70s and 80s, economists stopped developing them.

    They are very complicated with many moving parts, so unless you are really into the literature, you would never know they do not work. His Nobel was given just to give climate-change advocates more credibility.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  65. eah says:
    @War for Blair Mountain

    Her Twitter timeline filtered for the word “white” –> link — her tweets are bad enough, but the replies are just as bad if not worse — as I’ve suggested before: these people embody a completely incompatible polity.

    • Replies: @Bugg
  66. Ed says:

    I went to Los Angeles for the first time ever. I really found the city quite enjoyable. The city maybe dominated by Mexican Americans but I found them to be friendly and harmless. The Chinatown in LA was larger than I expected and with well Chinese people. Here in DC, Chinatown doesn’t have many Chinese. Honestly I think America works for just about everyone that puts a modicum of effort into their life. I did go to where Nipsy Hustle was shot, sadly the hood looked similar to black hoods back east along the main drags but the homes on the side streets seemed ok.

  67. Kronos says:

    What are your thoughts on the 2009 Climategate crisis?

    • Replies: @eric
  68. Ed says:

    I wonder what Chetty’s research would make of this?

    For St. Louis, a city that had bled population for decades — it had about 400,000 residents in 1990, down from more than 800,000 in the 1950s — the influx of what was estimated to be the largest population of Bosnians outside Bosnia seemed to work magic. For the first time in generations, the urban narrative of abandoned houses, stagnant business and vanishing people appeared to be changing.

    But it didn’t last.

  69. Jesse says:

    I’d think it would make some difference.

    Nope. The only way it would make sense is if you assume that people (it takes two to make a baby) who tend towards single parenthood are the exact same as the people who get married and stay married. Which is ridiculous.

    Now, if you shift the economic landscape so that people can work hard and make enough money to live a decent life, that would increase the utility of the marginal people who are able to be solid citizens in the right environment. Therefore they’d be more able to live more middle class lives. But marriage would have nothing to do with it – it might be a result of a more equal society and economy, but it would have nothing to do with making them more productive.

  70. Jesse says:

    For me, what it’s about is fathers paying their kid’s way, rather than taxpayers.


    That only works if you assume that the baby daddies are exactly the same as the guys getting married to one woman and having children only with her. There is exactly no evidence that those guys – the cads, if you like – are the kind of solid citizens are going to be able and willing to buck up, settle down and ape the white upper middle classes. Guys who aren’t able to compete in the hyper competitive, uber globalized economy are not suddenly going to change just because they’re pushed into a legal contract with one of the women they knocked up.

    • Replies: @Oddsbodkins
  71. Kronos says:

    Don’t forget about Kissinger

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  72. Kronos says:

    “Illegals weren’t a huge problem. The folks angriest were the Chicano 2d & 3d gen Chicanos. They used slurs I’d NEVER dream of using… not how I wanna raised.”

    Against who exactly? Illegals in general or specific areas of Mexico and/or Latin America?

  73. JimD says:

    I’m not California savy enough to comment on the specific example mentioned but I did listen to Chetty and Klein, and thought it was an excellent discussion overall.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  74. Whiskey says: • Website

    Black and Black dependent pols like Bill de Blasio certainly do not want Black voters moving from cities. They don’t want Indian or Chinese pols ousting them. They might actually have to work for a living and get a real job.

    Related NYPD fired the cop who arrested Eric Garner and put him in a chokehold.

    Expect much donut shop sitting by the NYPD who got the message. Crime free for all. De Blasio wants a cabinet job.

  75. The best part of Silicon Valley is on Landings Drive directly across from The Googleplex in Mountain View. Google has basically bought up every property within a quarter mile, but directly across from the Borg Hivemind is a dilapidated old shack with junked cars in the driveway and semi wild hounds prowling the property. You half expect pre-oil strike Jed Clampett to walk out on to the deck with his trusty shotgun. I would love to know the backstory to this noble outlier property.,-122.0873686,3a,75y,253.38h,83.36t/data=!3m9!1e1!3m7!1sqmzEBoiUZnOPiaYnU_dyFQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!9m2!1b1!2i49

  76. @SiliconValleyMagyar

    Oldtimers remember what was there before that hotel: a short rutted street called “whiskey gulch” lined with liquor stores and low-rent bars.

  77. @Cloudswrest

    No, Facebook is in (east) Menlo Park. Unfortunately for (west) Menlo Park, the two are not separate cities with separate school districts like east and west Palo Alto. For good measure, east and west Palo Alto are in different counties!

    And while it’s true that east PA real estate is worth ten times what it would be worth in Oklahoma, the difference visavis (the) Palo Alto is stark. Mark Zuckerberg’s house is just one street in from that boundary, ’nuff said.

    • Replies: @cloudswrest
  78. baythoven says:

    “…finally connected it to Foster City.”

    Huh? They still only connect by freeway or footpath.

    • Replies: @Shmendrix
  79. @J.Ross

    a gay black democrat politician in DC (who is apparently crack free)

    Good point. Retired presidents have traditionally kept mum during their successors’ terms, out of professional courtesy, and it would be nice if Barry did the same.

  80. FPD72 says:

    After the Dan Quayle v Murphy Brown brouhaha during the 1992 election, The Atlantic ran an article, “Dan Quayle was Right.” The article cited studies that indicated that illegitimacy was the single greatest predictor of numerous social pathologies on the children’s part, even after adjusting for income, race, etc. These research outcomes have been replicated many times over, but politicians are scared out of their wits to mention these, always preferring to talk about “brave, hard-working single mothers.”

    Personal anecdote: for three years while I was in grad school, I was the director of a halfway house for juvenile delinquents (drug dealers, car thieves, and armed robbers, NOT truancy or singing too loud in choir — all but two had a minimum of three criminal adjudications). Of the more than sixty boys who came into the program, two came from families with a father present. Of those two, one was completely passive, the other was an accused murderer and sexual deviant.

    Ann Coulter and Heather McDonald have written extensively on this topic. Our present illegitimacy rate of 40% certainly doesn’t bode well for our nation’s future.

    • Replies: @midtown
  81. FPD72 says:
    @Ancient Briton

    The casualty rate for American gynecologists serving in Afghanistan must be 100%!

  82. nebulafox says:

    Even more irony goes to the fact that the co-winner, Le Duc Tho, was the representative of a nation that had over a dozen military divisions in the territories of its neighbors for the previous decade and-though they’d get rid of them in the end-explicitly jumpstarted the Khmer Rouge in Campaign X.

    Mind, I believe Kissinger did deserve the Nobel Prize: but for what he did in the Middle East, not what he did in Southeast Asia. I think cutting out the USSR rather than including them in a wider deal that we could force on the Israelis and Arabs-as Nixon favored, even before Watergate-wasn’t optimal, but there’s no getting around how tactically impressive Henry’s shuttle diplomacy was and how it ultimately paved the path for US dominance and relative stability in the Middle East.

    Far more of a mixed bag was the petrodollar deal that Dick and Henry cut with the Sauds. Yeah, sure, the American economic boom of the 80s and 90s probably wouldn’t have happened without it, and nobody realistically could have predicted the Shah’s downfall, but still, that was basically all at the cost of basically making us the mercenaries for Wahhabi theocrats.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @Kronos
  83. JimB says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I prefer the 2020 Shelby Mustang. It’s good for pulling a plow.

  84. FPD72 says:

    “They’re real, and they’re spectacular”.

    Not to mention her plug for a Kegal exercise device on the Tonight Show!

  85. @Forked Mind

    I’m pretty sure the Nobel Peace Prize has always been worthless. Look at Wikipedia’s list of Nobel PP winners, I don’t think there has ever been a good period for this award.

  86. Bugg says:

    Loved her on “Top Chef”, saying “pack your knives and go” to the losers with all the passion you would associate with paying your electric utility bill or taking out the garbage. Always wonder though if her food tastes any different coming up when she’s sticking her finger down her throat off camera.

  87. Art Deco says:

    Far more of a mixed bag was the petrodollar deal that Dick and Henry cut with the Sauds. Yeah, sure, the American economic boom of the 80s and 90s probably wouldn’t have happened without it,

    The value of oil and gas production accounted in 1983 for about 2.4% of all industrial inputs and 1% of all final demand. I don’t think general prosperity was riding on global price dynamics in oil, much less Saudi manipulations.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @Kronos
  88. Kronos says:

    He’s a interesting guy for sure. I listened to this biography on him roughly a year ago.

    It’s remarkable how many on the left-right spectrum (especially on the left) hated/hates his guts. Unfortunately, the book ends at 1968. So his influence in the Nixon administration and the eventual construction of the Petrodollar isn’t included. Hopefully, the sequel will come out soon.

    *He was originally a intellectual/policy flunky for Nelson Rockefeller but eventually joined up with Nixon after Nelson couldn’t win the Republican nominations to become President.

  89. Hunsdon says:

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

  90. J.Ross says:
    @Art Deco

    Just think if people used oil for stuff, and ratcheted back or accelerated that stuff depending on the cheapness of oil.

    • Replies: @Kronos
  91. J.Ross says:

    You don’t have to know anything about California to notice the number of times Fakir Chetty is asked directly about mechanisms of action or regression to the mean.

  92. eric says:

    The whole thing is a crock. If you ask a bunch of scientists a question that isn’t political, you’ll never get unanimity. 1 degree F increase in the past 50 years, given all the natural intraday and decadal variation, and both the mechanism and the effects are known with complete agreement by the scientific community.

    • Replies: @Prodigal son
  93. J.Ross says:

    Sailer’s explanation hardly differs from Chetty’s.

    One of those guys believes in human accomplishment and the other doesn’t (he probably really does but his efforts dance around it).

  94. anon[395] • Disclaimer says:

    The left’s embrace of Chetty is a classic case of “heads we win; tails you lose.”

    If Chetty’s analysis had shown that Blue Cities encouraged upward mobility, then Red States would be browbeaten into accepting Blue State policies. But it since it showed the opposite, they will be browbeaten into accepting Blue State undesirables. Electoral rigging 101.

  95. @Hypnotoad666

    Y’all just jealous of Klein’s Voxabulary :

    “…Because you’ve done such granular work…”

  96. @Jesse

    All true. It’s child-support laws backed up with force that I want, not meaningless marriages.

    • Agree: Jesse
  97. njguy73 says:
    @Doc Dynamo

    I’m pretty sure the Nobel Peace Prize has always been worthless. Look at Wikipedia’s list of Nobel PP winners, I don’t think there has ever been a good period for this award.

    Two words: Yassir. Arafat.

  98. @Barnard

    Unless they fire the current teachers and then, with more rigorous standards, hire the $100K/yr teachers, there will the same old teachers now making $100K.
    Of course, since the salaries overseen by the administrators will have increased, the administrators will need a pay raise to reflect the increased responsibility.

    Short version:
    More money won’t help a shitty public educational system where everyone learns crap.

  99. Kronos says:
    @Art Deco

    What about the Saudis buying US Treasuries to keep US interest rates low?

    This is a good article:

    “The basic framework was strikingly simple. The U.S. would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plow billions of their petrodollar revenue back into Treasuries and finance America’s spending.”

    It’s largely why the interest on US debt is so low. If someone was 28 Trillion Dollars in debt, would they normally have low interest rates?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  100. Moses says:
    @Ancient Briton

    Gud one fellas. I meant “IEDs”.

    Explosive IUDs are confined to Planned Parenthood.

  101. Aft says:


    Indian cab drivers run around sporting more confidence than white brain surgeons. Imagine an Indian professor at Harvard after a decade of ignorant journalists worshipping you because you claim to work with data AND are telling them exactly what they want to hear to confirm their leftist worldview. How confident would that guy be in his woefully incomplete models? Very.

  102. @International Jew

    Close enough. The Redwood City border is about 2000′ from the West side of the facility, and the East Palo Alto border is about 2000′ from the East side of the campus.

    BTW downtown Redwood City, with the gentrification and high rise residential apts. is unrecognizable from the old days.

  103. @Doc Dynamo

    Perhaps “morally”. But the prize money and nearly 2/5 lb of gold is nothing to sneeze at. Makes a good political bribe.

  104. anonymous[237] • Disclaimer says:

    The key to revitalizing American cities and making them great again is large scale Central American immigration.

  105. @OhioJoeJoe

    ‘I lived for 8 years in the San Joaquin Valley – not a place seen in movies unless you count Pauly Shore’s unmemorable “Son In Law”…’

    ‘Fat City.’ I see ‘There will be Blood’ as set in the San Joaquin Valley.

  106. Kronos says:

    Also, Saudi Arabia sells oil to other countries but ONLY accepts US dollars for the resource transfer. China and India MUST pay in US currency to purchase oil from Saudi Arabia.

    This leads to global economic transfers of selling cheap goods to the US to obtain US dollars to pay for oil. With the US having the World Reserve’s Currency we can just print it out, the money is fiat currency and not backed by any hard assets. So we print off de facto toilet paper that’s used to purchase foreign goods that they need for petroleum.

  107. Logan says:

    Looks to me like a very profound and refuting problem here.

    He seems to just assume that those who lived there in 2012 (or whenever) were the children of those who lived there in 1992 (ditto).

    As is pointed out here, this is by no means necessarily the case.

    I don’t think you can do an area analysis this way, you need to handle it at the family level.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  108. Brutusale says:

    If you’re hiring for a government agency or some other EEOC-genuflecting concern, are you hiring a black man or a black woman?

    You minimize the damage, so to speak.

  109. Art Deco says:

    Reuters, Bloomberg, and others put the asset value of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund at between $300 bn and $600 bn dollars. Reuters contends that their ‘international’ investments amount to 15% of the total, which seems low. In any case, even if they were putting it all in Treasury issues, it would still account for only 3% of outstanding federal debt.

  110. Art Deco says:
    @Doc Dynamo

    IIRC, there was a period decades in length when the winners were generally Scandinavian NGOs doing whatever.

    The problem with the award is in it’s conception. There is no such thing as ‘peace’ full stop. There is such a thing as peace within a certain balance of power and a certain set of institutional practices. Any state of nonbelligerency incorporates an understanding of the value of alternatives to nonbelligerency. North Korea and South Korea have been at peace for 66 years. It’s a very different sort of peace north of the border than south.

    So, the alternative to pretending people running grant-money vent pipes are accomplishing something and the alternative to pretending diplomats and politicians looking for their best deal are disinterestedly benevolent is to endorse some grass-roots figure. The trouble is, for every Mother Teresa, you get a Rigoberto Menchu.

    If they could lawfully abolish the award, they should.

  111. @eric

    Global warming AKA Climate change is certainly a scam to increase taxes and give more power and money to the elites. This is a big reason why We can no longer have nice things , as the cost of living is greatly increased due to the money wasted “fighting” climate change. Trillions of dollars have been wasted and each week much wealth is destroyed as we grant worthless subsidies to electric cars and solar boondoggles.

  112. JimB says:
    @Art Deco

    There are always counter-examples one can cite, but, as a rule, black majority sections of a given metropolitan area have stupefying rates of violent crime, have disorderly schools, have decaying built environment, and have a truncated commercial sector. You want them to be something other than that, you have to impose strict discipline in the form of vigorous deployment of law enforcement and sequestration of trouble-makers in schools.

    Is there even one counterexample? If you want black majority sections of a given metropolitan area to become something other than stupefying shitholes, there is only one proven approach: shuffle the black population elsewhere.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  113. @Aft

    At least some of his data looks to be publicly available. You should tweet at this guy to add in basic confounds (race, house prices, parental SES) and see what actually pops out.

    My guess is Raj and everyone involved knows they’re selling a scam here.

    Here is a link that has Excel files of his data:

  114. @Aft

    My guess is Raj and everyone involved knows they’re selling a scam here.

    Since everyone is always saying what a genius Chetty is, he must know that he is scamming everyone.

    The most obvious part of his scam is that he uses a rigged definition of “upward mobility,” which he arbitrarily defines as moving from the bottom quintile of the national income distribution to the top quintile of the national income distribution.

    But the black income distribution has a much lower mean than the white income distribution. Thus, for a black person to count as “upwardly mobile” under Chetty’s rigged metric he would have to be earning at, say, 2 sigma above his mean expected income. Whereas an “upwardly mobile” white would only have to earn at, say, 1 sigma above his expected mean.

    Chetty’s knew this damn well going into his analysis. He therefore chose a metric that was reverse engineered to show less black “upward mobility.” That’s why Chetty’s map of “low opportunity areas” is simply a map of ghettos and Indian reservations.

    This scam is sitting in plain sight so I have no idea why no one will call him on it.

  115. @Logan

    He seems to just assume that those who lived there in 2012 (or whenever) were the children of those who lived there in 1992 (ditto).

    Logan — if that’s true, then you’re right, this is another scam by Chetty which would understate the amount of “upward mobility” by the people who grew up in the so-called “low opportunity zones.” People move in to poor neighborhoods when their incomes fall and they need to live cheaply. They move out of poor neighborhoods as soon as they can afford to do so. Thus, a poor neighborhood is, by definition, a place where people are consistently poor.

    See my comment at 118 for his other scam of using a rigged definition of “upward mobility.”

    A third scam that I think he is perpetrating is not taking different geographical costs of living into account. The inflated income levels in alleged “high mobility” zones like Silicon Valley are largely eaten up by their higher costs of living. So the real cost-adjusted incomes in these areas — and thus their contribution to cost-adjusted “upward mobility” — must be overstated.

  116. Shmendrix says:

    Apparently my wishful thinking manifested in a hallucination. It’s been awhile.

  117. Chetty was hired by Obama to justify his HUD policy of affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing. Chetty was using the data to justify the Obama administrations plan to pay Blacks to move into white towns. Chetty came up with a simple plan to advance this Obama policy and have the appearance of a well thought-out plan to improve upward mobility of poor Americans.

    Basically the plan is to send. Lacks into lower middle class white areas….lower middle class whites are more likely to be upwardly mobile than middle class blacks , or even The children of Upper class Blacks.

  118. Art Deco says:

    There have been fine improvements in quality of life metrics all over New York City. I understand some of you fancy the city must have found a way to expel the black population, but that notion’s not going to survive a cursory examination of Census statistics or the police precinct data on black majority neighborhoods in the city. There’s a reason the homicide rate in Baltimore is more than 5x the rate in Harlem, and it’s not because they expelled the blacks from Harlem. There’s a reason the homicide rate in the U.S. Virgin Islands is 5x that of the British Virgin Islands, even though they have similar racial compositions. (And I can show you handsome black majority neighborhoods in my home town even without such measures). It doesn’t seem to occur to you that the black population consists of wage earners who respond to incentives and respond to constraints and that the lumpen element can be dealt with through deterrence, punishment, and incapacitation.

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