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Did Merkel's Submission to Turkey Fuel Erdogan's Electoral Comeback?
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From the NYT:

Erdogan’s Party in Turkey Regains Parliamentary Majority
By TIM ARANGO and CEYLAN YEGINSU NOV. 1, 2015

ISTANBUL — In a stunning electoral comeback, the Islamist party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regained its majority in Parliament on Sunday, ensuring Mr. Erdogan’s continued dominance of Turkish politics after months of political turmoil and violence.

The result will permit Mr. Erdogan to remain the country’s pre-eminent political figure while pushing the boundaries of the constitutional limits of the presidency, a largely ceremonial role.

With 99 percent of the votes counted, according to the state broadcaster TRT, the Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., captured 49.3 percent of the popular vote, giving it a solid majority of 316 seats in Parliament.

The victory for the A.K.P. came at great cost to the cohesion of Turkish society. Critics say Mr. Erdogan’s divisive rhetoric, by denigrating opponents as terrorists or traitors, helped polarize the country. And a government crackdown on dissent in the lead-up to the vote, with mobs attacking newspaper offices and a recent raid on a media conglomerate opposed to the government, raised concerns abroad about Turkey’s commitment to democracy.

The outcome was also a spectacular upset given that most polls had predicted a result similar to June’s national election, which had denied the A.K.P. a parliamentary majority for the first time in more than a decade.

The victory seemed to validate Mr. Erdogan’s electoral strategy of turning more nationalist, and taking a harder line with Kurdish militants in the southeast, where a long-running war resumed in recent months. Much of the party’s gains seemed to come at the expense of the far-right nationalist party, as voters switched to the A.K.P.

Nobody seems to be talking about it in coverage of Erdogan’s unexpected comeback, but wouldn’t Chancellor Merkel’s October 18th visit to Erdogan to try to bribe Turkey with money and E.U. rights in return for cutting back on the migrants have been a key event in validating Erdogan in the minds of wavering Turkish voters, especially in the minds of Turkish nationalists?

After all, Dr. Merkel spent the earlier part of 2015 humiliating Turkey’s old enemy, Greece. But now even mighty Germany is in submission to Turkey’s leader.

I certainly don’t know enough about Turkey’s byzantine politics to understand exactly what’s going on, but this scenario seems like basic human psychology. Voters pay attention to who looks like the alpha dog — e.g., look at how everybody is all excited by Rubio putting ¡Jeb¡ in his place. If the Moral Leader of the World and ruler of Europe comes and begs your President for mercy, well, maybe you’ll re-evaluate your objections to the guy. Whose bandwagon do you want to be on?

 
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  1. Two things: 1) It’s ¡Jabe¡ 2) What about election fraud?

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Exactly. I can't imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?
  2. @Dave M.
    Two things: 1) It's ¡Jabe¡ 2) What about election fraud?

    Exactly. I can’t imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Yes, and they said it was fair.

    But there was some kind of glitch in the counting process that sounded a little like Mexico in 1988.

    , @ren

    Exactly. I can’t imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?
     
    International voting commissions looking at elections in the USA found them completely unsatisfactory at making sure there was no voter fraud. We barely even try to make sure people don't cheat.
  3. I’m getting tired of hearing people say ‘Alpha’ and then going into that reasoning to explain everything

    I don’t think the average Turk would be smart enough to give a crap.

    This is more an iSteve thing, less of a Turkish voter thing

    • Replies: @SFG
    Turkey's not Sweden, but it's not Zimbabwe either. And as Steve has documented, the Turks are more than capable of spinning out lots of conspiracy theories, some of which are probably true.
    , @Vendetta
    Doesn't take a genius to notice who's a natural leader.

    But hey, I guess your theory explains why so many primitive tribes make scrawny, timid men who are afraid of fighting their chiefs. Stupid bastards can't figure out who the alphas are.

    That's something it takes three digit IQ's to do, which is why you'll always find a swaggering, charismatic juggernaut presiding over computer clubs, Asian-American student associations, and MENSA.
    , @reiner Tor
    Turkish voters saw Erdogan being charismatic and in charge and an important international leader kowtowing before him. They were happy what they saw, so voted for their charismatic leader.
  4. @AndrewR
    Exactly. I can't imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?

    Yes, and they said it was fair.

    But there was some kind of glitch in the counting process that sounded a little like Mexico in 1988.

    • Replies: @Randal

    Yes, and they said it was fair.
     
    Not according to the first press report I saw:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/turkeys-elections-campaign-unfair-say-international-monitors

    These reports tend to be more concerned with utility than accuracy, and depend mostly on the agenda of the monitoring body, admittedly.
  5. The outcome was also a spectacular upset given that most polls had predicted a result similar to June’s national election …

    Or perhaps just a case of spectacular electoral fraud.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    we have election fraud state side, it is par for the course in turkey it seems.
  6. @JLoHo
    I'm getting tired of hearing people say 'Alpha' and then going into that reasoning to explain everything

    I don't think the average Turk would be smart enough to give a crap.

    This is more an iSteve thing, less of a Turkish voter thing

    Turkey’s not Sweden, but it’s not Zimbabwe either. And as Steve has documented, the Turks are more than capable of spinning out lots of conspiracy theories, some of which are probably true.

    • Replies: @WGG
    You're right, Turkey's not Sweden. In Sweden, the government is actively hostile to the interests of the native Swedes who live there. In Turkey, the government seems to be trying to do what is in its peoples' best interests or at least give the people what they want.

    What do they have in common? In both places it is illegal to criticize Islam.
  7. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Merkel is Polish on her father’s side. They Germanized their name (Kasner from Kaźmierczak) and converted from Catholicism to Lutheranism. Note to the souring Krauts, never again elect as your leader a woman Polock scientist with multiple marriages and no kids. Whoops. At least Merkel’s offspring won’t be affected by the coming nightmare.

  8. Plus the recent terrorist atrocity of two bombs in Istanbul that killed over 100 may have resulted in a solidarity with the incumbent effect.

    It’s difficult not to add extra credence to this as a result of the Guardian spinning it the other way!

  9. I am not a Turkey expert, but if I had to guess, the media does not like Erdogan. He does not do things like crusade for homosexuals and he is a nationalist, so he is going to be attacked by The Economist and Daily Kos. All their predictions about Erdogans demise are similar to America where almost every media outlet is anti Trump, but in the end he still has big popular support, they just don’t want to believe that people truly would support a nationalist as president.

  10. Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls. Surprised that the Kurds were allowed to stay above 10%, at least Erdogan won’t be able to be made President for life as despite the new majority, negating the need for a coalition, he doesn’t have the two thirds required.

    Nothing fair about an election where a civil war was engineered, media outlets shut, journalists arrested and soldiers were on the streets and in polling stations in Kurdish areas.

    • Replies: @5371
    [Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls]

    If that's all it takes to prove it, the ballots were stuffed in England this May.
    , @tbraton
    I am a little puzzled why the Kurds, who are estimated to constitute 15-20% of Turkey's population, were only able to garner a little more than 10% of the vote.
  11. The Turks have a demographic problem. Erdogan often talks about it, referencing the year 2038 as the year Kurds become a majority in the country now called Turkey. The Turks have two problems. One is low fertility rate among ethnic Turks. The other is a flight of young Turks to Europe where they can live secular lives away from the family obligations that most Westerners don’t understand.

    That’s why Merkel offering unlimited migration of Turks into Europe is not the great prize some here imagine. Erdogan is worried about keeping young Turks at home having babies. Unless he can export his troublesome population in large numbers, it’s not a deal worth anything to him. Even Merkel would finch at the sort of ethnic cleansing Erdogan has in mind.

    • Replies: @Hrw-500
    I saw an old article from May 2012 about the Kurds who'll become a majority in 2038.
    http://www.ibtimes.com/kurdish-majority-turkey-within-one-generation-705466 and another article
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/fertility-and-the-fate-of-nations/

    Could Erdogan's victory might be a phyrric victory for him?

  12. Keith Vaz [AKA "Nancy Pelosy"] says:

    I see Steve has been reading too much Heartiste too.

    Incidentally, this shows why female leaders are terrible – hormonal irrational appeasers by nature.

  13. WGG [AKA "World\'s Greatest Grandson"] says:
    @SFG
    Turkey's not Sweden, but it's not Zimbabwe either. And as Steve has documented, the Turks are more than capable of spinning out lots of conspiracy theories, some of which are probably true.

    You’re right, Turkey’s not Sweden. In Sweden, the government is actively hostile to the interests of the native Swedes who live there. In Turkey, the government seems to be trying to do what is in its peoples’ best interests or at least give the people what they want.

    What do they have in common? In both places it is illegal to criticize Islam.

  14. Merkel: Germany’s Chamberlain

    Peace in our time.

  15. @AndrewR
    Exactly. I can't imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?

    Exactly. I can’t imagine that elections in Turkey could be anywhere near corruption-free. Were these monitored by an international commission?

    International voting commissions looking at elections in the USA found them completely unsatisfactory at making sure there was no voter fraud. We barely even try to make sure people don’t cheat.

  16. @JLoHo
    I'm getting tired of hearing people say 'Alpha' and then going into that reasoning to explain everything

    I don't think the average Turk would be smart enough to give a crap.

    This is more an iSteve thing, less of a Turkish voter thing

    Doesn’t take a genius to notice who’s a natural leader.

    But hey, I guess your theory explains why so many primitive tribes make scrawny, timid men who are afraid of fighting their chiefs. Stupid bastards can’t figure out who the alphas are.

    That’s something it takes three digit IQ’s to do, which is why you’ll always find a swaggering, charismatic juggernaut presiding over computer clubs, Asian-American student associations, and MENSA.

  17. @LondonBob
    Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls. Surprised that the Kurds were allowed to stay above 10%, at least Erdogan won't be able to be made President for life as despite the new majority, negating the need for a coalition, he doesn't have the two thirds required.

    Nothing fair about an election where a civil war was engineered, media outlets shut, journalists arrested and soldiers were on the streets and in polling stations in Kurdish areas.

    [Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls]

    If that’s all it takes to prove it, the ballots were stuffed in England this May.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Proved they were under Labour, who massively loosened controls on voting registration and methods, yes. No surprise that after the reintroduction of some controls Labour duly under performed the polls in 2015. Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour's true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1870
  18. Erdogan now has a “mandate” to deal harshly with the Kurds, whose nationalist dreams are for the first time more than a fantasy.

    Imagine America going to war with France after they’ve attempted to invade Spain. The Basques would be nicely positioned to fight against France. America sees the benefit in arming them. But the Spaniards don’t want that, and Spain is our ally. Letting the Basques play too large a role in the fight against the Evil French would set the stage for a legitimate Basque independence movement, which neither Spain nor America wants. The Basques would be national socialists, a leftist state whose leftism is grounded in labor, blood, and soil, and nothing scares contemporary progressive elites more than a class-based, blood and soil leftism.

    The Kurds are the Basques. They are secular national socialists, as much a threat to the global order as gun-toting rednecks flying Confederate flags. It’s just another reason for Merkel to give Erdogan more power. It’s a two-fer. He can help control the refugee spigot as well as ensure that the Kurds’ success against ISIS doesn’t go to their heads.

  19. @LondonBob
    Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls. Surprised that the Kurds were allowed to stay above 10%, at least Erdogan won't be able to be made President for life as despite the new majority, negating the need for a coalition, he doesn't have the two thirds required.

    Nothing fair about an election where a civil war was engineered, media outlets shut, journalists arrested and soldiers were on the streets and in polling stations in Kurdish areas.

    I am a little puzzled why the Kurds, who are estimated to constitute 15-20% of Turkey’s population, were only able to garner a little more than 10% of the vote.

    • Replies: @Charles Martel
    I had a very interesting conversation with some Turkish friends about this on the weekend.

    It seems that although the Kurds are close to 20 per cent of the population, there is a divide among them between Shias and Sunnis as well. Erodgan's brand of aggressive Sunni "nationalism" seems appealing to some Sunni Kurds who choose to vote for him instead of the Kurdish parties. This would explain why the Kurdish parties are not pulling close to the number of votes that they ought to.
  20. Erdogan is an incredibly effective politician with a great track record while in power.

    Maybe Erdogan should take over as President of the EU? We’d have genuine cultural and social rejuvenation and, if he wanted to, he is exactly the type of leader who could halt the immi-vasion.

  21. @Seamus Padraig

    The outcome was also a spectacular upset given that most polls had predicted a result similar to June’s national election ...
     
    Or perhaps just a case of spectacular electoral fraud.

    we have election fraud state side, it is par for the course in turkey it seems.

  22. Hehe, “Turkey’s byzantine politics”. How appropriate.

  23. @Steve Sailer
    Yes, and they said it was fair.

    But there was some kind of glitch in the counting process that sounded a little like Mexico in 1988.

    Yes, and they said it was fair.

    Not according to the first press report I saw:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/turkeys-elections-campaign-unfair-say-international-monitors

    These reports tend to be more concerned with utility than accuracy, and depend mostly on the agenda of the monitoring body, admittedly.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yes, Turkish elections are never peaceful or fair. But how did the November election compare to June? I think it was more peaceful and more fair, though I am not sure.
  24. OT – Princeton Prof criticises Polish reluctance to accept “refugees”, says “the Poles, for example, were indeed rightfully proud of their society’s resistance against the Nazis, but in fact did kill more Jews than Germans during the war”. Poles not happy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/11970221/Polish-American-historian-could-be-stripped-of-honours-after-claiming-Poles-killed-more-Jews.html

    Also OT – German security guard arrested for abduction and murder of four year old Bosnian boy – not sure whether he’s a guard at the refugee centres.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11969688/Body-found-in-garden-of-migrant-child-killer-confirmed-as-missing-German-boy.html

  25. Steve, that Andrew Hammel is developing a nice line in iStevish humour aka sincerest form of flattery.

    http://www.germanimmigration.eu/2015/11/german-creative-class-sacrifice-your-museums.html

    “In Germany’s most populous federal state, Northern Rhine-Westphalia, 200 of the 800 indoor sports facilities have already been converted into migrant shelters housing 30,000 migrants. Which means 800 sports clubs have had to cancel their activities. There is no end in sight, and more sports facilities are being seized and converted every day.

    Now, if you’re a member of the German creative class, I know what you’re thinking: ‘Who cares?’

    And God knows, the German creative class has already made tremendous sacrifices to help refugees in Facebook comments and dinner-party conversations. Many German theaters have used state subsidies to create productions about or even with refugees, the better to re-educate the skinheads and neo-Nazis who make up the majority of the audience at avant-garde German theaters.”

  26. Erdogan is NOT a nationalist, at least not in the traditional, Kemalist sense. Erdogan has made no secret of his ambition to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire, hence his picking a fight with the Kurds, ambitions in Syria and Iraq and Central Asia and Europe (he’s claimed that Turkey has a moral right to much of the Balkans) and Egypt. To name just a few. His hostility to Israel, traditionally a counterweight for Nationalist/Kemalist Turkey against forces hostile: Alevi Syria and Baathist Iraq and Shia/Persian Iran, makes no sense in that framework but a lot of sense in trying to create a mini Sultanate.

    As for Poland, yes it is a matter of historical record that returning Jews from camps were killed by great numbers of Poles after the war. It is worth noting that this was done by Poland’s peasants and worker class, nearly all of the intelligentsia having been murdered in Katyn Forest by one of Stalin’s peasant (Russian, Orthodox) killers, Blokhin. Polish collaboration and enthusiastic participation (again, by the peasant/worker class not the intelligentsia) in the Final Solution is also well documented.

    At any rate, Merkel has consigned Europe to decades and perhaps a century of WAR! Not War in the WWII, massive navy/army/air forces type of war, but more like grinding Thirty Years War of ethnic cleansing, massacre and counter-massacre, with pretty much every power certain to get in: the US (on the side of Muslims enslaving/killing Europeans), Turkey (same), Russia (on the side of Europeans), and probably even China.

    Every Muslim and African knows how well Europeans live, “knows” that if they can just get there they get European women as mistresses, European men as slaves/serfs/servants, welfare galore, and get to impose their backward/poverty making cultures on the Europeans while reaping the money created by centuries of painful European modernization and industrialization. Meanwhile Europeans are clinging to idiotic Universal Utopian ideas and sentiments and avoiding the nasty duties of kicking out their own non-Europeans and not letting in more, so they can not see disturbing pictures of drowned toddlers on beaches, and guaranteeing their own toddlers slaughtered by Jihad!

    A picture of limitless manpower Jihad! up against limitless inventive killing by desperate Europeans using the very latest technology is coming. Millions of Muslims rampaging through streets fighting millions of networked, armed drones with the latest AI and flock behavior and advanced sensors.

    • Replies: @Bill
    Shorter Whiskey:

    [Erdogan bad:] His hostility to Israel
     
    , @AnotherDad
    Geez Whiskey, let’s reign it in a bit.

    As for Poland, yes it is a matter of historical record that returning Jews from camps were killed by great numbers of Poles after the war. It is worth noting that this was done by Poland’s peasants and worker class, nearly all of the intelligentsia having been murdered in Katyn Forest ...
     
    I have no doubt the average Polish peasant had approximately zero love for the Jews. "Anti-semitism" is a political term for ordinary people not liking a tribe that holds itself endogamouly separate from the local community, is commercially successful at their expense and treats them as outsider rubes to be bilked. In other words ... a normal human response. (What do say the Filipinos suffer from "anti-overseas-Chinesism"?)

    However, "great numbers" of Polish killers implies great numbers of Jews returning from the camps, existed to be killed. Where'd those Jews come from? Hollywood may make it seem like every old Jew has a camp tattoo, but the reality is a bit different. The death camps actually killed people--quite successfully. Yes, there were big labor operations as well, but after working you to ill-health, disease ... death, they tossed you in the crematorium. I checked Wikipedia, just to see if i was confused. No. For example Himmler sent the Auschwitz ambulatory (only 50,000) on a death march toward Bergen-Belsen. Most died, the British liberated some 20,000 survivors. Most of the Polish camps had trivial numbers of survivors. You hear a lot about "survivors" because the millions of non-survivors can't write their stories. Selection effect.

    This Princeton punk trying to Nazify the Poles, because they show reluctance to surrender their nation to refugees, is just the same nasty, hateful, anti-nationalist crap we get from the Jewish quarter day in, day out: Just wanting to preserve your own nation, people, culture is evil. White gentiles must die ... and not complain about dying.

    A picture of limitless manpower Jihad! up against limitless inventive killing by desperate Europeans using the very latest technology is coming. Millions of Muslims rampaging through streets fighting millions of networked, armed drones with the latest AI and flock behavior and advanced sensors.
     
    Uh … maybe, if we’re lucky! Whiskey, I like the picture you draw of Europeans eventually standing up to drive the muslims out. But where’s the evidence white people are ever going to get there?

    My son is of football watching age and has occasionally come home from the U on the weekends, watched some games here—especially during the last couple years of Seahawk ascendency—so I’ve actually seen some commercials in the last few years. And—beyond the usual schlock you’d expect—what I’ve noticed is major corporations sponsoring PC, pro-homo and pro-miscegenation propaganda. The whole point of at least a few commercials seems to be to indoctrinate white women with the idea that having black husbands—the worst possible romantic choice for a white woman—is the greatest thing in the world. (I wonder how black women—probably bigger football watchers than white women—feel about that?) Americans—with considerable white support—elected a narcissistic, non-entity, radical as President … essentially because he was black (and a black of the type upper class white people like to believe they could be friends with).

    The European globo elite is waving in hostile foreign riff-raff, to destroy European nations—in plain view, jamming it right in the peoples faces … and while there’s considerable dissatisfaction, the reaction’s being peacefully ho-hum. “Oh they are destroying our nations … hmm.”

    I’m waiting for the white reaction\counter-revolution. Not seeing it happening. So far we’re going gently.

    Meanwhile Europeans are clinging to idiotic Universal Utopian ideas and sentiments and avoiding the nasty duties of kicking out their own non-Europeans and not letting in more, so they can not see disturbing pictures of drowned toddlers on beaches, and guaranteeing their own toddlers slaughtered by Jihad!
     
    Now there I have no quibble. Impossible to argue with that.
  27. Merkel is but the tip of the iceberg. The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.
    We are not only doomed – we deserve to be. I just hope and pray that it is Russia which does us in, and not Islam.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    And the new Secretary of the US Army is gay. That'll do wonders for recruitment.
    In San Francisco.
    , @Mr Curious
    And has any of them fought in war? Been in the military?
    , @Reg Cæsar

    The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.
     
    The Netherlands gave up active conscription twenty years ago, and now has a suspended system with all-male registry, like the US. Sweden ended active conscription in 2010. (Don't know if they keep a registry.) Denmark still has an active all-male draft.

    But Norway… Several countries, mostly desparate ones (Israel, Eritrea, Cuba, Taiwan) draft women. But Norway is the first in history to draft women on the same terms as men. So maybe their Madame Minister is appropriate.

    I'd read that Phyllis Schlafly was going to be offered one of several positions in the Reagan Administration, but not the one she really wanted, Secretary of Defense. Too bad. Machine Gun Phyllis would have cut quite a figure.
  28. I always love it when Steve’s headlines just make me say, “Yes.”

  29. OT –

    Drag Racing Uzbek killing pedestrians that US drivers won’t.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20151103_Drag_racer_gets_17-34_years_in_deaths_of_mother__3_kids.html

    • Replies: @Hunsdon
    Common Pleas Court Judge Steven R. Geroff called Khusen Akhmedov a "good candidate for rehabilitation" and cited his "sincere remorse" for the crash that killed 27-year-old Samara Banks and sons Saa'mir Williams, 7 months; Saa'sean Williams, 23 months; and Saa'deem Griffin, 4.

    Well, there you go, then. Samara is a Russian name . . . ya right.
    , @Lugash
    He's also a Medicare cheat!

    http://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/seven-charged-health-care-fraud-scheme

    The alleged scheme involved more than $3.6 million in fraudulent claims submitted to Medicare. The defendants were also charged with related crimes including making false statements in connection with health care matters, aggravated identity theft, paying kickbacks to patients, and money laundering, announced United States Attorney Zane David Memeger.

    Valeriy Davydchik, 58, and Khusen Akhmedov, 22, Mikhail and Irina Vasserman, both 50, and Aleksandr Vasserman, 29, all of Philadelphia, were arrested this morning.
     
    , @Stubborn in Germany
    17 to 24 years, huh?

    Fritz Schramma was mayor of the city of Cologne from 2000 to 2009. In 2001, his son was standing on a Cologne sidewalk waiting for the light to turn green, when a Turk engaged in an illegal car race slammed into him and killed him instantly, the son was 31 years old.

    Mayor Schramma subsequently pushed very hard for the megamosque financed by Turkey's religion ministry to get building permits in Cologne over grassroots opposition. For his trouble, the Turks pissed all over him when they fired the German architect of the mosque and brusquely ignored Schramma's attempt to mediate.

    His son's killer got a suspended two-year sentence.
  30. Merkel’s gaze at Erdogan in that photo is one of worshipful admiration. He’s gazing out at the crowd like he’s in charge, and she’s looking up at him like some silly fangirl. No wonder she gave way. Maybe there really is something wrong with her hormones and oxytocin levels. Germans are, after all, a cold people compared to all those Middle Easterners.

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    This is so stupid but please keep posting more of it. Merkel (who i despise) routinely guts "tough" German male politicians all the time. The idea that she's some kind of blushing fan girl is delusional. There are pictures of Thatcher looking at Reagan in the same way-didn't stop her from telling Al Haig to get lost and then crushing the Argentinians.
  31. @5371
    [Operation ballot stuffing a success, AKP far outperform the polls]

    If that's all it takes to prove it, the ballots were stuffed in England this May.

    Proved they were under Labour, who massively loosened controls on voting registration and methods, yes. No surprise that after the reintroduction of some controls Labour duly under performed the polls in 2015. Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour’s true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1870

    • Replies: @5371
    So Labour were able to cheat on the opinion polls but not in the election itself? That makes no sense.
    , @Rob McX

    Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour’s true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.
     
    It doesn't matter a damn while Labour's loss is the Tories' - or Lib Dems' - gain. Most of the voting fraud is by Muslims, as in Tower Hamlets borough. Though to be fair, perhaps the fraud only balances out the abstention from voting (sometimes under threats from their religious leaders) by some Muslims who believe Allah is the only legislator and are awaiting the day when they can install an Islamic theocracy.
  32. @Milo Minderbinder
    OT -

    Drag Racing Uzbek killing pedestrians that US drivers won't.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20151103_Drag_racer_gets_17-34_years_in_deaths_of_mother__3_kids.html

    Common Pleas Court Judge Steven R. Geroff called Khusen Akhmedov a “good candidate for rehabilitation” and cited his “sincere remorse” for the crash that killed 27-year-old Samara Banks and sons Saa’mir Williams, 7 months; Saa’sean Williams, 23 months; and Saa’deem Griffin, 4.

    Well, there you go, then. Samara is a Russian name . . . ya right.

  33. @Milo Minderbinder
    OT -

    Drag Racing Uzbek killing pedestrians that US drivers won't.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20151103_Drag_racer_gets_17-34_years_in_deaths_of_mother__3_kids.html

    He’s also a Medicare cheat!

    http://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/seven-charged-health-care-fraud-scheme

    The alleged scheme involved more than $3.6 million in fraudulent claims submitted to Medicare. The defendants were also charged with related crimes including making false statements in connection with health care matters, aggravated identity theft, paying kickbacks to patients, and money laundering, announced United States Attorney Zane David Memeger.

    Valeriy Davydchik, 58, and Khusen Akhmedov, 22, Mikhail and Irina Vasserman, both 50, and Aleksandr Vasserman, 29, all of Philadelphia, were arrested this morning.

  34. The amazing thing here is not Merkel’s submission. It is the fact that Turkey and Greece occupy a very important geographic location, yet Turkey used it as amazing leverage for accomplishing external and internal goals while Greece screwed it up.

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    Greece isnt half as strategic as Turkey and they were asking for money as opposed to the ability to pawn off their excess population on Europe. Greece already gets to do that.
  35. @Anonymous
    Merkel is but the tip of the iceberg. The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.
    We are not only doomed - we deserve to be. I just hope and pray that it is Russia which does us in, and not Islam.

    And the new Secretary of the US Army is gay. That’ll do wonders for recruitment.
    In San Francisco.

  36. @LondonBob
    Proved they were under Labour, who massively loosened controls on voting registration and methods, yes. No surprise that after the reintroduction of some controls Labour duly under performed the polls in 2015. Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour's true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1870

    So Labour were able to cheat on the opinion polls but not in the election itself? That makes no sense.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    The subject of both posts was electoral fraud, and no Labour was unable to cheat as much as they previously did this time. The pollsters should have weighted down Labour for the relative absence of electoral fraud due to the reforms implemented prior to the election.
  37. Any chance Erdogan ginned the whole thing up after hearing about the deal Qaddafi got from Italy?

    At first Merkel tried to act like she had it under control, but Erdogan just kept increasing the volume.

  38. @Milo Minderbinder
    OT -

    Drag Racing Uzbek killing pedestrians that US drivers won't.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20151103_Drag_racer_gets_17-34_years_in_deaths_of_mother__3_kids.html

    17 to 24 years, huh?

    Fritz Schramma was mayor of the city of Cologne from 2000 to 2009. In 2001, his son was standing on a Cologne sidewalk waiting for the light to turn green, when a Turk engaged in an illegal car race slammed into him and killed him instantly, the son was 31 years old.

    Mayor Schramma subsequently pushed very hard for the megamosque financed by Turkey’s religion ministry to get building permits in Cologne over grassroots opposition. For his trouble, the Turks pissed all over him when they fired the German architect of the mosque and brusquely ignored Schramma’s attempt to mediate.

    His son’s killer got a suspended two-year sentence.

  39. @Anonymous
    Merkel is but the tip of the iceberg. The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.
    We are not only doomed - we deserve to be. I just hope and pray that it is Russia which does us in, and not Islam.

    And has any of them fought in war? Been in the military?

  40. @LondonBob
    Proved they were under Labour, who massively loosened controls on voting registration and methods, yes. No surprise that after the reintroduction of some controls Labour duly under performed the polls in 2015. Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour's true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1870

    Since then even tighter controls have been introduced and Labour’s true vote total will be recorded in 2020, hopefully keeping them out of power for a very long time.

    It doesn’t matter a damn while Labour’s loss is the Tories’ – or Lib Dems’ – gain. Most of the voting fraud is by Muslims, as in Tower Hamlets borough. Though to be fair, perhaps the fraud only balances out the abstention from voting (sometimes under threats from their religious leaders) by some Muslims who believe Allah is the only legislator and are awaiting the day when they can install an Islamic theocracy.

  41. @5371
    So Labour were able to cheat on the opinion polls but not in the election itself? That makes no sense.

    The subject of both posts was electoral fraud, and no Labour was unable to cheat as much as they previously did this time. The pollsters should have weighted down Labour for the relative absence of electoral fraud due to the reforms implemented prior to the election.

    • Replies: @5371
    Pollsters don't ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn't make sense.
  42. No mead for Merkel.

    PS. Looks like Brunnhilde found her Siegfried.

  43. @JLoHo
    I'm getting tired of hearing people say 'Alpha' and then going into that reasoning to explain everything

    I don't think the average Turk would be smart enough to give a crap.

    This is more an iSteve thing, less of a Turkish voter thing

    Turkish voters saw Erdogan being charismatic and in charge and an important international leader kowtowing before him. They were happy what they saw, so voted for their charismatic leader.

  44. @LondonBob
    The subject of both posts was electoral fraud, and no Labour was unable to cheat as much as they previously did this time. The pollsters should have weighted down Labour for the relative absence of electoral fraud due to the reforms implemented prior to the election.

    Pollsters don’t ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn’t make sense.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Pollsters don’t ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn’t make sense.
     
    Not quite. Pollsters aren't just reporting raw counts, they have a model based on how their polling has corresponded to election results in the past (with further tweaks for how they think turnout wll change in the coming election). If Labor's ability to turn the polled "sentiment of the populace" into actual votes has declined because their ability for vote fraud has declined, then that's going to have the polls (based on existing pollster's models), overstate the Labor vote results.
  45. @Anon
    Merkel's gaze at Erdogan in that photo is one of worshipful admiration. He's gazing out at the crowd like he's in charge, and she's looking up at him like some silly fangirl. No wonder she gave way. Maybe there really is something wrong with her hormones and oxytocin levels. Germans are, after all, a cold people compared to all those Middle Easterners.

    This is so stupid but please keep posting more of it. Merkel (who i despise) routinely guts “tough” German male politicians all the time. The idea that she’s some kind of blushing fan girl is delusional. There are pictures of Thatcher looking at Reagan in the same way-didn’t stop her from telling Al Haig to get lost and then crushing the Argentinians.

  46. @sobl
    The amazing thing here is not Merkel's submission. It is the fact that Turkey and Greece occupy a very important geographic location, yet Turkey used it as amazing leverage for accomplishing external and internal goals while Greece screwed it up.

    Greece isnt half as strategic as Turkey and they were asking for money as opposed to the ability to pawn off their excess population on Europe. Greece already gets to do that.

  47. Erdo looks like Stalin.

    Is this like Ribbentropp-Molotov Pact?

  48. @Randal

    Yes, and they said it was fair.
     
    Not according to the first press report I saw:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/turkeys-elections-campaign-unfair-say-international-monitors

    These reports tend to be more concerned with utility than accuracy, and depend mostly on the agenda of the monitoring body, admittedly.

    Yes, Turkish elections are never peaceful or fair. But how did the November election compare to June? I think it was more peaceful and more fair, though I am not sure.

  49. @The Z Blog
    The Turks have a demographic problem. Erdogan often talks about it, referencing the year 2038 as the year Kurds become a majority in the country now called Turkey. The Turks have two problems. One is low fertility rate among ethnic Turks. The other is a flight of young Turks to Europe where they can live secular lives away from the family obligations that most Westerners don't understand.

    That's why Merkel offering unlimited migration of Turks into Europe is not the great prize some here imagine. Erdogan is worried about keeping young Turks at home having babies. Unless he can export his troublesome population in large numbers, it's not a deal worth anything to him. Even Merkel would finch at the sort of ethnic cleansing Erdogan has in mind.

    I saw an old article from May 2012 about the Kurds who’ll become a majority in 2038.
    http://www.ibtimes.com/kurdish-majority-turkey-within-one-generation-705466 and another article
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/fertility-and-the-fate-of-nations/

    Could Erdogan’s victory might be a phyrric victory for him?

    • Replies: @metatron
    Kurds are poorer than Turks on average and make up a disproportionate percentage of "Turks" in Germany and other European countries. Who's more likely to pack up en mass if Turkey gets in Schengen, educated Turks in Istanbul or Kurdish villagers from Anatolia?
  50. @Hrw-500
    I saw an old article from May 2012 about the Kurds who'll become a majority in 2038.
    http://www.ibtimes.com/kurdish-majority-turkey-within-one-generation-705466 and another article
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/fertility-and-the-fate-of-nations/

    Could Erdogan's victory might be a phyrric victory for him?

    Kurds are poorer than Turks on average and make up a disproportionate percentage of “Turks” in Germany and other European countries. Who’s more likely to pack up en mass if Turkey gets in Schengen, educated Turks in Istanbul or Kurdish villagers from Anatolia?

  51. To be fair, Merkel’s boner has already affected elections in Austria, Switzerland, and Poland, and will likely affect even more elections in years to come. One is almost tempted to think that Merkel is taking a dive for immigration sanity, by throwing the borders so far open that everyone can experience the full impact immediately, rather than the slow but deadly trickle they were experiencing. If there is or was any hope for immigration sanity in Europe, it is probably only in response to the immigration tsunami they are experiencing right now. You wonder if Merkel knows that, and if that’s really her intent.

  52. @Anonymous
    Merkel is but the tip of the iceberg. The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.
    We are not only doomed - we deserve to be. I just hope and pray that it is Russia which does us in, and not Islam.

    The defence ministers of the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are all women.

    The Netherlands gave up active conscription twenty years ago, and now has a suspended system with all-male registry, like the US. Sweden ended active conscription in 2010. (Don’t know if they keep a registry.) Denmark still has an active all-male draft.

    But Norway… Several countries, mostly desparate ones (Israel, Eritrea, Cuba, Taiwan) draft women. But Norway is the first in history to draft women on the same terms as men. So maybe their Madame Minister is appropriate.

    I’d read that Phyllis Schlafly was going to be offered one of several positions in the Reagan Administration, but not the one she really wanted, Secretary of Defense. Too bad. Machine Gun Phyllis would have cut quite a figure.

  53. @tbraton
    I am a little puzzled why the Kurds, who are estimated to constitute 15-20% of Turkey's population, were only able to garner a little more than 10% of the vote.

    I had a very interesting conversation with some Turkish friends about this on the weekend.

    It seems that although the Kurds are close to 20 per cent of the population, there is a divide among them between Shias and Sunnis as well. Erodgan’s brand of aggressive Sunni “nationalism” seems appealing to some Sunni Kurds who choose to vote for him instead of the Kurdish parties. This would explain why the Kurdish parties are not pulling close to the number of votes that they ought to.

    • Replies: @5371
    Yes. Kurds often become jihadists as well, like the 14 year old who recently gunned down a Chinese cop in Australia.
    , @tbraton
    Thanks. I would have thought that more than half of the Kurds would be strongly opposed to Erdogan's abusive rule, which includes bombing Kurds.
  54. @Charles Martel
    I had a very interesting conversation with some Turkish friends about this on the weekend.

    It seems that although the Kurds are close to 20 per cent of the population, there is a divide among them between Shias and Sunnis as well. Erodgan's brand of aggressive Sunni "nationalism" seems appealing to some Sunni Kurds who choose to vote for him instead of the Kurdish parties. This would explain why the Kurdish parties are not pulling close to the number of votes that they ought to.

    Yes. Kurds often become jihadists as well, like the 14 year old who recently gunned down a Chinese cop in Australia.

  55. @Charles Martel
    I had a very interesting conversation with some Turkish friends about this on the weekend.

    It seems that although the Kurds are close to 20 per cent of the population, there is a divide among them between Shias and Sunnis as well. Erodgan's brand of aggressive Sunni "nationalism" seems appealing to some Sunni Kurds who choose to vote for him instead of the Kurdish parties. This would explain why the Kurdish parties are not pulling close to the number of votes that they ought to.

    Thanks. I would have thought that more than half of the Kurds would be strongly opposed to Erdogan’s abusive rule, which includes bombing Kurds.

  56. @5371
    Pollsters don't ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn't make sense.

    Pollsters don’t ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn’t make sense.

    Not quite. Pollsters aren’t just reporting raw counts, they have a model based on how their polling has corresponded to election results in the past (with further tweaks for how they think turnout wll change in the coming election). If Labor’s ability to turn the polled “sentiment of the populace” into actual votes has declined because their ability for vote fraud has declined, then that’s going to have the polls (based on existing pollster’s models), overstate the Labor vote results.

    • Replies: @5371
    Your explanation is theoretically possible, but I doubt that in practice the adjustments they make are near being enough to account for the effect. Good thinking, though.
  57. @Whiskey
    Erdogan is NOT a nationalist, at least not in the traditional, Kemalist sense. Erdogan has made no secret of his ambition to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire, hence his picking a fight with the Kurds, ambitions in Syria and Iraq and Central Asia and Europe (he's claimed that Turkey has a moral right to much of the Balkans) and Egypt. To name just a few. His hostility to Israel, traditionally a counterweight for Nationalist/Kemalist Turkey against forces hostile: Alevi Syria and Baathist Iraq and Shia/Persian Iran, makes no sense in that framework but a lot of sense in trying to create a mini Sultanate.

    As for Poland, yes it is a matter of historical record that returning Jews from camps were killed by great numbers of Poles after the war. It is worth noting that this was done by Poland's peasants and worker class, nearly all of the intelligentsia having been murdered in Katyn Forest by one of Stalin's peasant (Russian, Orthodox) killers, Blokhin. Polish collaboration and enthusiastic participation (again, by the peasant/worker class not the intelligentsia) in the Final Solution is also well documented.

    At any rate, Merkel has consigned Europe to decades and perhaps a century of WAR! Not War in the WWII, massive navy/army/air forces type of war, but more like grinding Thirty Years War of ethnic cleansing, massacre and counter-massacre, with pretty much every power certain to get in: the US (on the side of Muslims enslaving/killing Europeans), Turkey (same), Russia (on the side of Europeans), and probably even China.

    Every Muslim and African knows how well Europeans live, "knows" that if they can just get there they get European women as mistresses, European men as slaves/serfs/servants, welfare galore, and get to impose their backward/poverty making cultures on the Europeans while reaping the money created by centuries of painful European modernization and industrialization. Meanwhile Europeans are clinging to idiotic Universal Utopian ideas and sentiments and avoiding the nasty duties of kicking out their own non-Europeans and not letting in more, so they can not see disturbing pictures of drowned toddlers on beaches, and guaranteeing their own toddlers slaughtered by Jihad!

    A picture of limitless manpower Jihad! up against limitless inventive killing by desperate Europeans using the very latest technology is coming. Millions of Muslims rampaging through streets fighting millions of networked, armed drones with the latest AI and flock behavior and advanced sensors.

    Shorter Whiskey:

    [Erdogan bad:] His hostility to Israel

  58. @Whiskey
    Erdogan is NOT a nationalist, at least not in the traditional, Kemalist sense. Erdogan has made no secret of his ambition to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire, hence his picking a fight with the Kurds, ambitions in Syria and Iraq and Central Asia and Europe (he's claimed that Turkey has a moral right to much of the Balkans) and Egypt. To name just a few. His hostility to Israel, traditionally a counterweight for Nationalist/Kemalist Turkey against forces hostile: Alevi Syria and Baathist Iraq and Shia/Persian Iran, makes no sense in that framework but a lot of sense in trying to create a mini Sultanate.

    As for Poland, yes it is a matter of historical record that returning Jews from camps were killed by great numbers of Poles after the war. It is worth noting that this was done by Poland's peasants and worker class, nearly all of the intelligentsia having been murdered in Katyn Forest by one of Stalin's peasant (Russian, Orthodox) killers, Blokhin. Polish collaboration and enthusiastic participation (again, by the peasant/worker class not the intelligentsia) in the Final Solution is also well documented.

    At any rate, Merkel has consigned Europe to decades and perhaps a century of WAR! Not War in the WWII, massive navy/army/air forces type of war, but more like grinding Thirty Years War of ethnic cleansing, massacre and counter-massacre, with pretty much every power certain to get in: the US (on the side of Muslims enslaving/killing Europeans), Turkey (same), Russia (on the side of Europeans), and probably even China.

    Every Muslim and African knows how well Europeans live, "knows" that if they can just get there they get European women as mistresses, European men as slaves/serfs/servants, welfare galore, and get to impose their backward/poverty making cultures on the Europeans while reaping the money created by centuries of painful European modernization and industrialization. Meanwhile Europeans are clinging to idiotic Universal Utopian ideas and sentiments and avoiding the nasty duties of kicking out their own non-Europeans and not letting in more, so they can not see disturbing pictures of drowned toddlers on beaches, and guaranteeing their own toddlers slaughtered by Jihad!

    A picture of limitless manpower Jihad! up against limitless inventive killing by desperate Europeans using the very latest technology is coming. Millions of Muslims rampaging through streets fighting millions of networked, armed drones with the latest AI and flock behavior and advanced sensors.

    Geez Whiskey, let’s reign it in a bit.

    As for Poland, yes it is a matter of historical record that returning Jews from camps were killed by great numbers of Poles after the war. It is worth noting that this was done by Poland’s peasants and worker class, nearly all of the intelligentsia having been murdered in Katyn Forest …

    I have no doubt the average Polish peasant had approximately zero love for the Jews. “Anti-semitism” is a political term for ordinary people not liking a tribe that holds itself endogamouly separate from the local community, is commercially successful at their expense and treats them as outsider rubes to be bilked. In other words … a normal human response. (What do say the Filipinos suffer from “anti-overseas-Chinesism”?)

    However, “great numbers” of Polish killers implies great numbers of Jews returning from the camps, existed to be killed. Where’d those Jews come from? Hollywood may make it seem like every old Jew has a camp tattoo, but the reality is a bit different. The death camps actually killed people–quite successfully. Yes, there were big labor operations as well, but after working you to ill-health, disease … death, they tossed you in the crematorium. I checked Wikipedia, just to see if i was confused. No. For example Himmler sent the Auschwitz ambulatory (only 50,000) on a death march toward Bergen-Belsen. Most died, the British liberated some 20,000 survivors. Most of the Polish camps had trivial numbers of survivors. You hear a lot about “survivors” because the millions of non-survivors can’t write their stories. Selection effect.

    This Princeton punk trying to Nazify the Poles, because they show reluctance to surrender their nation to refugees, is just the same nasty, hateful, anti-nationalist crap we get from the Jewish quarter day in, day out: Just wanting to preserve your own nation, people, culture is evil. White gentiles must die … and not complain about dying.

    A picture of limitless manpower Jihad! up against limitless inventive killing by desperate Europeans using the very latest technology is coming. Millions of Muslims rampaging through streets fighting millions of networked, armed drones with the latest AI and flock behavior and advanced sensors.

    Uh … maybe, if we’re lucky! Whiskey, I like the picture you draw of Europeans eventually standing up to drive the muslims out. But where’s the evidence white people are ever going to get there?

    My son is of football watching age and has occasionally come home from the U on the weekends, watched some games here—especially during the last couple years of Seahawk ascendency—so I’ve actually seen some commercials in the last few years. And—beyond the usual schlock you’d expect—what I’ve noticed is major corporations sponsoring PC, pro-homo and pro-miscegenation propaganda. The whole point of at least a few commercials seems to be to indoctrinate white women with the idea that having black husbands—the worst possible romantic choice for a white woman—is the greatest thing in the world. (I wonder how black women—probably bigger football watchers than white women—feel about that?) Americans—with considerable white support—elected a narcissistic, non-entity, radical as President … essentially because he was black (and a black of the type upper class white people like to believe they could be friends with).

    The European globo elite is waving in hostile foreign riff-raff, to destroy European nations—in plain view, jamming it right in the peoples faces … and while there’s considerable dissatisfaction, the reaction’s being peacefully ho-hum. “Oh they are destroying our nations … hmm.”

    I’m waiting for the white reaction\counter-revolution. Not seeing it happening. So far we’re going gently.

    Meanwhile Europeans are clinging to idiotic Universal Utopian ideas and sentiments and avoiding the nasty duties of kicking out their own non-Europeans and not letting in more, so they can not see disturbing pictures of drowned toddlers on beaches, and guaranteeing their own toddlers slaughtered by Jihad!

    Now there I have no quibble. Impossible to argue with that.

  59. @AnotherDad

    Pollsters don’t ask people who they think is going to win. They ask them how they are going to vote themselves. So that still doesn’t make sense.
     
    Not quite. Pollsters aren't just reporting raw counts, they have a model based on how their polling has corresponded to election results in the past (with further tweaks for how they think turnout wll change in the coming election). If Labor's ability to turn the polled "sentiment of the populace" into actual votes has declined because their ability for vote fraud has declined, then that's going to have the polls (based on existing pollster's models), overstate the Labor vote results.

    Your explanation is theoretically possible, but I doubt that in practice the adjustments they make are near being enough to account for the effect. Good thinking, though.

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