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Screenshot 2017-06-15 18.03.13

From the New York Times:

Inside the Algorithm That Tries to Predict Gun Violence in Chicago

By JEFF ASHER and ROB ARTHUR JUNE 13, 2017

Gun violence in Chicago has surged since late 2015

To translate that out of Passive Voice-ese: Since Mayor Rahm Emanuel caved in to Black Lives Matter and released video of a bad shooting by the Chicago Police Department on November 23, 2015, blacks have been shooting blacks in huge numbers in Chicago, while, presumably, policemen have become even more expert on comfortable positions for sleeping in their cruisers along the lakefront near my old condo.

, and much of the news media attention on how the city plans to address this problem has focused on the Strategic Subject List, or S.S.L.

The list is made by an algorithm that tries to predict who is most likely to be involved in a shooting, either as perpetrator or victim. The algorithm is not public, but the city has now placed a version of the list — without names — online through its open data portal, making it possible for the first time to see how Chicago evaluates risk.

We analyzed that information and found that the assigned risk scores — and what characteristics go into them — are sometimes at odds with the Chicago Police Department’s public statements and cut against some common perceptions.

■ Violence in the city is less concentrated at the top — among a group of about 1,400 people with the highest risk scores — than some public comments from the Chicago police have suggested.

Screenshot 2017-06-15 18.43.25

A big problem with Chicago’s predictive algorithm is that Chicago clears so few homicides that it mostly has data on victims of crime rather than perps. From the Chicago Tribune last summer:

Chicago police currently solve about 30 percent of the city’s homicides, said a department spokesman, Anthony Guglielmi. In Houston, a city of comparable size, that figure is 56 percent, according to a spokesman for the Houston Police Department. In Philadelphia, it’s 49 percent.

Those figures — known as the clearance rate — include homicides marked as solved in the current year but committed in different years. But when old cases are stripped out, Chicago’s clearance rate for 2016 homicides drops to about 21 percent. In all, Chicago police had solved just 92 of 432 homicides committed in 2016 through Aug. 16, according to police statistics.

Looking at victims is helpful in predicting future crimes because it turns out that a lot of victims of crime were victimized because they were criminals themselves.

I can’t tell whether the CPD database keeps track of people arrested together, or, say, passengers in a car who weren’t arrested when one passenger was hauled off to jail, or who were accompanying the victim of a crime, but that kind of information would seem useful in constructing social network maps to get a sense of who might go looking for vengeance.

 
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  1. t says:
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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    OT Steve have heard about the Hedy Weiss/Steppenwolf blow up?
     
    And they call her Jaded Strumpet.
    You know that girl sure blows trumpet.


    Oh, wait… that was the other Steppenwolf
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  2. BenKenobi says:

    policemen have become even more expert on comfortable positions for sleeping in their cruisers

    Little by little, more disconnection from Weimerica.

    Why give fealty to a nation that disowned and despises you?

    [White] Atlas Shrugged.

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  3. it turns out that a lot of victims of crime were victimized because they were criminals themselves

    Felons are barred from gun possession, and that makes sense for the violent ones.

    But non-violent felons have cheated someone, damaged property, or otherwise victimized a potentially vindictive victim. So, ironically, this felon may have more reason to carry than most.

    And I’d let him have a gun long before I’d let him have a vote.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Reg, modifying an old safety poster...."Know criminals, know crime. No criminals, no crime."
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  4. Arclight says:

    I have to give the NYT credit for even having a significant enough level of curiosity about this sort of thing to write about it – rather than the usual verbiage about lack of opportunity, jobs, education, etc.

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  5. @Reg Cæsar

    it turns out that a lot of victims of crime were victimized because they were criminals themselves
     
    Felons are barred from gun possession, and that makes sense for the violent ones.

    But non-violent felons have cheated someone, damaged property, or otherwise victimized a potentially vindictive victim. So, ironically, this felon may have more reason to carry than most.

    And I'd let him have a gun long before I'd let him have a vote.

    Reg, modifying an old safety poster….”Know criminals, know crime. No criminals, no crime.”

    Read More
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  6. Repeating from another comment today, but in the Buffalo City Grill shooting a few years back, seven of the eight victims had prior felony convictions. The shooter, Ricardo McCrae, was a recently released felon. Birds of a feather.

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  7. Murder is essentially legal in the great American city of Chicago.

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  8. countenance says: • Website

    Minority Report = reporting minorities.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonym
    I haven't read the book but the allegory seems far too good to be coincidence. I really must read some PKD.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  9. The Z Blog says: • Website

    Here in Bodymore, we are at 159 homicides. Chicago is about five times the size of Baltimore, so their 289 looks a little like AAA to us. The city has put the cops on 12 hours shifts, basically unleashing the overtime in order to send a signal to the cops that they can go back to work. Whether or not it works is unknown. The city political establishment has done their best to piss off the rank and file.

    The mayor is hilariously stupid. The other day she said that carrying an illegal gun should be a crime and a felony. Carrying an illegal gun is obviously a crime and it is already a felony. Like all rank and file Democrat politicians, she repeats the party line, even when it makes her sound like a simpleton. Her angle now is to blame the issue on guns. Maryland has draconian gun laws, but they want more.

    The sad thing about all this is we had mostly figured out how to run an urban reservation. The cops would get to do what needed doing to limit crime and the city would make sure the cops were not running drugs or shaking down the drug dealers. The point was to keep the nice neighborhoods safe and the tourist areas safer. The Left busted that up and here we are again, Bodymore Murderville.

    Read More
    • Replies: @countenance
    The other day she said that carrying an illegal gun should be a crime and a felony.

    Who is going to enforce it? Don't say "cops," because we all know in Baltimore, white cops do nothing but brutalize innocent black babies' bodies like Freddie Gray. Even if you can get past problem, then they'll have to deal with BLM bitching about so many black men being strung up on a "non-violent" crime.
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  10. anon says: • Disclaimer

    The most important assertion is that ‘Fast Eddie’ can’t shut up about the top 1,400 and yet they account for only 18% of the problem. True that.

    But 1400 people could simply be locked up. How? They have extensive records and could probably be locked up for parole violations or missing court dates or any number of things — immediately.

    The next 10,000 account for another 25%.

    Crime is still very concentrated.

    They also ‘reverse engineered’ the algorithm. Probably good enough, but maybe not. Naturally, all anyone really cares about is how it will be used. Fair enough, but the extent to which it works is a separate question. The general argument is that it doesn’t really predict much and even if it did, it wouldn’t do any good. And if it did any good, it would result in unfair stuff. &c. The usual disparate outcome sorts of things.

    However, one argument at a time, please.

    Meanwhile … all that data. I gave it a quick shot and only got part of the dataset downloaded. It says it is 400,000 rows of data.

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  11. @t
    OT Steve have heard about the Hedy Weiss/Steppenwolf blow up?

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/theater/ct-hedy-weiss-sun-times-pass-over-steppenwolf-20170614-story.html

    OT Steve have heard about the Hedy Weiss/Steppenwolf blow up?

    And they call her Jaded Strumpet.
    You know that girl sure blows trumpet.

    Oh, wait… that was the other Steppenwolf

    Read More
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  12. Trelane says:

    A lot of the murder cases in Chicago are cases where the police surmise the victim “needed killing”. Cases like this don’t go too far as far as being solved is concerned.
    Innocent victims have a much higher clearance rate. So in Chicago if you kill a guy who was asking for it, the police kind of agree with you and don’t investigate too hard. And why should they? Their job is to make the city safe for people who deserve to be safe. Not to make the city safe for criminals.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    So really what's going on is a form of capital punishment. We outlaw the real thing, of course, or never use it. But when criminals rub out criminals or cops kill them in the line of duty the result is the same: 100% effectiveness in stopping recidivism in each dead criminal. Trials and due process would be better, but that avenue seems too long, boring, and racist for us 21st century types.
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  13. Anonym says:
    @countenance
    Minority Report = reporting minorities.

    I haven’t read the book but the allegory seems far too good to be coincidence. I really must read some PKD.

    Read More
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  14. jim jones says:

    Kathryn Bigelow has a movie about the Detroit riots coming out soon, I wonder who the bad guys will be:

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  15. I don’t have the hospital birth records, but there is enough incidental/inferential evidence that teen pregnancy is a major factor, especially preteen pregnancy. Basically the juvenile crime stats in Chicago track closely to the areas with higher ratios of teen and preteen motherhood. When your mom was 13-15 when she had you, you tend to show up about 13-18 years later in the crime stats, even if you don’t kill anyone.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist
    Nonsense!!!

    You are still largely buying into the NURTURE argument. If we could just stop teen pregnancy we would fix the problem. I doubt that. We have been hearing that sort of thing for all my life. Besides it assumes that violent sociopathic tendencies are mostly X chromosome based.

    You instead have to identify the most genetically sociopathic males and remove them from the gene pool.

    Like I have been saying for years. Every violent teenage or known gangbanger who breaks the law could be RISUGed/VASALGELed out of the gene pool until he proves he can stay out of trouble till age 25 and then have his chemical vasectomy reversed.

    Will take a couple of generations to dramatically lower crime rates. But it is far more likely to work than the Blank Slate/Cultural Marxist idiocy of the last 60 years.

    OH GEE, That sound awfully EUGENIC.

    Well nothing less is going to work so otherwise its either go FULL MAD MAX or go FULL DUTERTE!!!
    , @countenance
    Teen and preteen pregnancy corresponds strongly with blackness.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  16. Gun violence in Chicago has surged since late 2015

    This is due to the fact that the gangs that controlled the high rise public housing projects were not the same gangs that control the neighborhoods. When the high rise projects were demolished, many of the residents moved into the neighborhoods. The high rise gangs set up shop selling drugs on the turf of the neighborhood gangs. The neighborhood gangs did not like this and have been fighting back. The old hierarchy between the gangs was broken down and many cases gangs now actually are leaderless, with small bands loosely allied with other small bands. Social media has also changed the dynamics of the violence. When someone posts that so and so was shot, many small groups go out to retaliate, increasing the violence. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-violence-gangs-20160728-story.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist
    Gee, I guess Chicago should have left Cabrini Green and Robert Taylor Homes standing so that gang bangers could still take high powered rifle practice targeting police, fire fighters, pedestrians and the occasional Lake Front bicyclist.

    This is not a architectural problem.

    The problem is a crappy gene pool full of sociopaths with low IQs. You either have the courage to address that issue directly or you are just flapping your gums.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  17. Ben Kurtz says:

    So the algorithm doesn’t use race as an input, and the NYTimes article barely discusses it, but the underlying dataset does record the racial category of each of the ~400,000 subjects on the list. It’s worth noting again that the list is basically built by counting anyone arrested in Chicago from August 1, 2012 to July 31, 2016, and then assigning each arrested person a risk score.

    I don’t have good statistical tools ready to hand, so I just glanced at the data and came up with some very crude observations to make a point:

    1. Of the 153 members of the “500 Club” (those receiving the riskiest score), 134 persons (or 87.5%) are black.

    2. Of the 150 persons receiving the least risky scores (which range from 10 to 65 points), 66 persons (or 44%) are black.

    3. Chicago’s overall population is 33% black.

    The NYTimes takes pains to emphasize that the algorithm’s input variables “stay away from variables that could discriminate, like race, gender and geography.” Yet even so, the”probability of being involved in a shooting incident either as a victim or an offender” correlates very strongly with being black, as these numbers show. Of course, Jeff Asher and Rob Arthur, the NYTimes writers, are extremely careful not to get anywhere near mentioning that. Talk about the War on Noticing!

    Also, the NYTimes guys really step in it when they attempt to dispute the Chicago PD’s assertion that 1,400 people are responsible for “much of the violence.” The writers demonstrate complete innumeracy here. The top 1,400 persons on this SSL are the persons most likely to be involved in a shooting EITHER as a perpetrator or as a victim. You’d need a completely different list of persons — those most likely to be involved in a shooting as a perpetrator, full stop — in order to test the “1,400″ assertion. And that list that would be very difficult to compile off of public arrest records given the low homicide clearance rate; to reveal how that list is built would probably require divulging confidential police sources and means. They’re conflating criminals and victims, and they don’t even realize it!

    Read More
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  18. @The Practical Conservative
    I don't have the hospital birth records, but there is enough incidental/inferential evidence that teen pregnancy is a major factor, especially preteen pregnancy. Basically the juvenile crime stats in Chicago track closely to the areas with higher ratios of teen and preteen motherhood. When your mom was 13-15 when she had you, you tend to show up about 13-18 years later in the crime stats, even if you don't kill anyone.

    Nonsense!!!

    You are still largely buying into the NURTURE argument. If we could just stop teen pregnancy we would fix the problem. I doubt that. We have been hearing that sort of thing for all my life. Besides it assumes that violent sociopathic tendencies are mostly X chromosome based.

    You instead have to identify the most genetically sociopathic males and remove them from the gene pool.

    Like I have been saying for years. Every violent teenage or known gangbanger who breaks the law could be RISUGed/VASALGELed out of the gene pool until he proves he can stay out of trouble till age 25 and then have his chemical vasectomy reversed.

    Will take a couple of generations to dramatically lower crime rates. But it is far more likely to work than the Blank Slate/Cultural Marxist idiocy of the last 60 years.

    OH GEE, That sound awfully EUGENIC.

    Well nothing less is going to work so otherwise its either go FULL MAD MAX or go FULL DUTERTE!!!

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist
    Steve,

    A question I would love the answer to is what percentage of Chicago's violent felons are the offspring of violent felons. Obviously determining the father of violent felons in Chicago's worst ghettos is problematic.

    Top criminologists at the FBI and the late James Q Wilson have no problem suggesting that the decline of the Sicilian mafia, and for what remains of it now be largely involved in "white collar" crime, was in large part to their own self enforced rules regarding sexual selection of suitable mostly respectable marriage partners and a taboo against spawning bastards. Each successive generation of mafia offspring was on average less violent than the former.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  19. @anonymous-antimarxist
    Nonsense!!!

    You are still largely buying into the NURTURE argument. If we could just stop teen pregnancy we would fix the problem. I doubt that. We have been hearing that sort of thing for all my life. Besides it assumes that violent sociopathic tendencies are mostly X chromosome based.

    You instead have to identify the most genetically sociopathic males and remove them from the gene pool.

    Like I have been saying for years. Every violent teenage or known gangbanger who breaks the law could be RISUGed/VASALGELed out of the gene pool until he proves he can stay out of trouble till age 25 and then have his chemical vasectomy reversed.

    Will take a couple of generations to dramatically lower crime rates. But it is far more likely to work than the Blank Slate/Cultural Marxist idiocy of the last 60 years.

    OH GEE, That sound awfully EUGENIC.

    Well nothing less is going to work so otherwise its either go FULL MAD MAX or go FULL DUTERTE!!!

    Steve,

    A question I would love the answer to is what percentage of Chicago’s violent felons are the offspring of violent felons. Obviously determining the father of violent felons in Chicago’s worst ghettos is problematic.

    Top criminologists at the FBI and the late James Q Wilson have no problem suggesting that the decline of the Sicilian mafia, and for what remains of it now be largely involved in “white collar” crime, was in large part to their own self enforced rules regarding sexual selection of suitable mostly respectable marriage partners and a taboo against spawning bastards. Each successive generation of mafia offspring was on average less violent than the former.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  20. @Mike Zwick

    Gun violence in Chicago has surged since late 2015
     
    This is due to the fact that the gangs that controlled the high rise public housing projects were not the same gangs that control the neighborhoods. When the high rise projects were demolished, many of the residents moved into the neighborhoods. The high rise gangs set up shop selling drugs on the turf of the neighborhood gangs. The neighborhood gangs did not like this and have been fighting back. The old hierarchy between the gangs was broken down and many cases gangs now actually are leaderless, with small bands loosely allied with other small bands. Social media has also changed the dynamics of the violence. When someone posts that so and so was shot, many small groups go out to retaliate, increasing the violence. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-violence-gangs-20160728-story.html

    Gee, I guess Chicago should have left Cabrini Green and Robert Taylor Homes standing so that gang bangers could still take high powered rifle practice targeting police, fire fighters, pedestrians and the occasional Lake Front bicyclist.

    This is not a architectural problem.

    The problem is a crappy gene pool full of sociopaths with low IQs. You either have the courage to address that issue directly or you are just flapping your gums.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  21. @Trelane
    A lot of the murder cases in Chicago are cases where the police surmise the victim "needed killing". Cases like this don't go too far as far as being solved is concerned.
    Innocent victims have a much higher clearance rate. So in Chicago if you kill a guy who was asking for it, the police kind of agree with you and don't investigate too hard. And why should they? Their job is to make the city safe for people who deserve to be safe. Not to make the city safe for criminals.

    So really what’s going on is a form of capital punishment. We outlaw the real thing, of course, or never use it. But when criminals rub out criminals or cops kill them in the line of duty the result is the same: 100% effectiveness in stopping recidivism in each dead criminal. Trials and due process would be better, but that avenue seems too long, boring, and racist for us 21st century types.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  22. countenance says: • Website
    @The Z Blog
    Here in Bodymore, we are at 159 homicides. Chicago is about five times the size of Baltimore, so their 289 looks a little like AAA to us. The city has put the cops on 12 hours shifts, basically unleashing the overtime in order to send a signal to the cops that they can go back to work. Whether or not it works is unknown. The city political establishment has done their best to piss off the rank and file.

    The mayor is hilariously stupid. The other day she said that carrying an illegal gun should be a crime and a felony. Carrying an illegal gun is obviously a crime and it is already a felony. Like all rank and file Democrat politicians, she repeats the party line, even when it makes her sound like a simpleton. Her angle now is to blame the issue on guns. Maryland has draconian gun laws, but they want more.

    The sad thing about all this is we had mostly figured out how to run an urban reservation. The cops would get to do what needed doing to limit crime and the city would make sure the cops were not running drugs or shaking down the drug dealers. The point was to keep the nice neighborhoods safe and the tourist areas safer. The Left busted that up and here we are again, Bodymore Murderville.

    The other day she said that carrying an illegal gun should be a crime and a felony.

    Who is going to enforce it? Don’t say “cops,” because we all know in Baltimore, white cops do nothing but brutalize innocent black babies’ bodies like Freddie Gray. Even if you can get past problem, then they’ll have to deal with BLM bitching about so many black men being strung up on a “non-violent” crime.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  23. countenance says: • Website
    @The Practical Conservative
    I don't have the hospital birth records, but there is enough incidental/inferential evidence that teen pregnancy is a major factor, especially preteen pregnancy. Basically the juvenile crime stats in Chicago track closely to the areas with higher ratios of teen and preteen motherhood. When your mom was 13-15 when she had you, you tend to show up about 13-18 years later in the crime stats, even if you don't kill anyone.

    Teen and preteen pregnancy corresponds strongly with blackness.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Practical Conservative
    Tell that to the West Virginians, who also have a substantially higher rate of white crime and white teen and preteen pregnancy.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  24. Olorin says:

    I’m confused.

    Are we now supposed to drop “youths,” “teens,” and “aspiring rappers” and call them “algorithms”?

    I thought that meme was already taken.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  25. @countenance
    Teen and preteen pregnancy corresponds strongly with blackness.

    Tell that to the West Virginians, who also have a substantially higher rate of white crime and white teen and preteen pregnancy.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments

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