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Baltimore's Homicide Record in 2015: a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma

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From the NYT:

The Numbers Behind Baltimore’s Record Year in Homicides
By JESS BIDGOOD JAN. 15, 2016

Searching for answers in the deadliest year in Baltimore’s history

… A sharp increase in homicides that, by the end of the year, left the city with the highest per-capita murder rate in its history.

Residents, analysts and policymakers here are divided over the precise cause of the surge in homicides. …

​344

The number of Baltimore homicides in 2015, a 63 percent increase over 2014

In 2014, Baltimore had 211 homicides, which the Police Department said was the city’s second-lowest number since 1972. By the end of 2015, the number of homicides rose to 344….

Why did homicides in Baltimore spike in 2015?

A search for explanations

Experts have not pointed to a single, dominant reason for this rise in homicides in Baltimore, nor have they definitively established any kind of causal link between the unrest in April after Freddie Gray’s death and the increase in killings.

From January through mid-April, the city’s monthly homicide totals were near the same pace of recent years – there were 58 homicides in the period in 2015, 50 in 2014 and 59 in 2013. …

On April 19, Freddie Gray’s death touched off protests and civil unrest in Baltimore. In May, the city had 42 homicides — which at that point, was among its deadliest months in decades. There were 29 homicides in June and another 45 in July. For the rest of the year, Baltimore averaged 31 homicides a month.

So, let’s divide 2014 and 2015 up into pre and post the Black Lives Matter event of April 19, 2015: the death of Freddie Gray:

Pre Black Lives Matter:

2014: 50 homicides

2015: 58

Increase +16%

Post Black Lives Matter:

2014: 161

2015: 286

Increase +78%

 

118 Comments to "Baltimore's Homicide Record in 2015: a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma"

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  1. Look on the bright side: Since lefties reject the ‘Ferguson effect’ they will continue to pour much of their own money in order to gentrify what are now ungentrifyable areas.

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  2. “Experts have not pointed to a single, dominant reason…”

    No dominant reasons, but they think they might have a few submissive ones. Seriously, what kind of ridiculous, high-handed writing is this? Topic aside, this article is so stylistically snooty, it makes satire beside the point. If this article could take on a human form, it would be Mrs. Howell from “Gilligan’s Island.”

    I guess the moral here is when you’re trying to obscure something obvious, go highbrow and dazzle ‘em with “smart word choices.” Reading this is like watching a sitcom where a character gets caught doing something bad, then tries to get out of it by spouting pseudo-intellectual word salad: “Well, mom, the single, dominant reason I ate all of the pie was because…”

    • Agree: ben tillman, Glossy, Bill
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  3. Point well taken, but I notice it was already trending upward.

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  4. A real head scratcher.

    Experts can’t explain why I have a hurt leg. I woke up yesterday feeling fine and went about my day. It was one of my better days. Today started out like any other day except in the morning someone broke in my house and bashed my leg with a baseball bat. My leg really hurts today. Nobody can figure out why.

    • Agree: International Jew
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  5. What’s interesting is the degree to which everything seems to all be coming to a head towards the end of Obama’s presidency.

    Massive increases in murder rates, set off by the actions of Holder and Obama.

    The invasion of Europe, set off by Obama’s failed policy in the Middle East.

    The Dow falling by over 10%, and a wealth of dire economic data..

    Temper tantrums on college campuses all over the US.

    A symphony composer or screenplay writer could not have timed these things more perfectly.

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  6. OT, but I just finished Edward Banfield’s The Moral Basis of a Backward Society for the first time. Had been meaning to read it since it was mentioned in passing during a conversation with Amy Wax. Have you read the book, by any chance, Steve?

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  7. I think someone should investigate and find out why 2014 had the second fewest homicides since 1972, otherwise it’s business as usual in Baltimore.

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  8. “The Dow falling by over 10%, and a wealth of dire economic data..”

    Clearly not a fan of Barack Hussein here, but I think it’s as unfair to blame the drop in the stock market on Obama as it was to blame the collapse of the housing market on his clueless predecessor. There is a little institution called the Federal Reserve Board which is largely to blame for both. But, since the rise in the stock market was largely due to the actions of the Fed, it hardly seems fair to blame them for a mere 10% drop in the market. I think we haven’t yet seen the worst. There is plenty of room to go.

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  9. I’m surprised nobody mentioned the KKK. They run Baltimore. I guess everyone is afraid…

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  10. Baltimore’s homicide numbers were trending up before Freddie Gray (great article from 2013… https://www.baltimorebrew.com/2014/01/02/baltimores-jump-in-homicides-in-2013-defies-national-trends/), while the population of the city was decreasing each year.

    Indianapolis has has no serious problems with the BLM movement, and yet the blacks there are working overtime to ensure the city becomes more violent each year.

    If there were no cops in Baltimore, and white people suddenly disappeared, you’d have probably 2 to 3 times the homicides (as of 12/26/2015, there had been 626 nonfatal shootings in the city, representing a 72 percent increase from 2014).

    And I wouldn’t call 2015′s spike in homicides courtesy of Black Lives Matter. I’d call it a combination of Marilyn Mosby’s affirmative action incompetence as the states attorney and the Baltimore Police Department finding refuge in the few coffee shops left in the city.

    Meanwhile, all six of the indicted officers will be acquitted in 2016, meaning we could conceivably see President Obama have to deal with more black riots toward the middle of the year.

    Someone hit Trump’s music.

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  11. Experts have not pointed to a single, dominant reason for this rise in homicides in Baltimore, nor have they definitively established any kind of causal link between the unrest in April after Freddie Gray’s death and the increase in killings……Freddie Gray’s death touched off protests and civil unrest

    Unrest and protests! Love the dishonest, neutral terms for black violence and maniacal hatred in the NY Times.

    Meanwhile Trump and his supporters are described by the Times as nothing but the embodiment of hatefearhatefearevilevilphobicracistetcetc…..sputter and drool!!!!!!!!!!

    We, the non experts, actually know EXACTLY what caused the increase in black males murdering each other in Baltimore.

    Black thugs looted as many CVS type drug stores as possible and got hold of drugs they then retailed on the street. Other black male thugs wanted in on the action and robbed and killed dealers of their drugs and money.

    Then a cycle of revenge and retaliation among friends and associates of the dead and wounded led to more murders.

    It’s as simple as that.

    Now, pretend not to notice.

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  12. Pretty much what happened to Bush: the financial crash of 2008 soured the country on him and led to Obama.

    So: President Trump?

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  13. “nor have they definitively established any kind of causal link between the unrest in April after Freddie Gray’s death and the increase in killings.”

    What are they looking for, a way to put unrest into a syringe, inject it into healthy mice, and see if they come down with increased homicide rates?

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  14. From those numbers, I’d say it looks like an effect, but perhaps not as strong as it looks.

    An April cutoff gives us a 2-1 split, and the pre-BLM period was already showing an increase. Factor out 16% doubled over the rest of the year, gets you to a 48% increase over 2014 already. Then figure there’s always more crime in warmer weather, and one could make the argument there’s a strong effect for 2015 over 2014, but it’s hard to peg it to the BLM cutoff in April.

    It makes a simple sort of sense to put it to the BLM riots, but I’m not sure its that easy to demonstrate.

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  15. Nope sorry this shabby thinking has been debunked:

    thinkprogress.org/justice/2015/06/17/3670203/ferguson-effect-isnt-real-in-st-louis/

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  16. “Though boys throw stones at frogs in sport, the frogs do not die in sport, but in earnest.”

    Bion

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  17. It was also the realization we just went into war over war in the middle east with nothing to show for it but more destabilization.

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  18. I Googled the term ‘Ferguson effect’. What amazed me was how many articles there were insisting there was absolutely, positively, definitively, totally and completely no such thing as a “Ferguson effect’. There was an almost desperate, “pay no attention to that man behind the curtain” tone to them. Finally I found one article that admitted that there might, maybe, possibly, BE such a thing as a “Ferguson effect” but that it was somehow wrong to speak of or acknowledge such a thing. Finally I found an explanation for the term. It seems to just be the old “FIDO” policy (F*** it, drive on) that cops would resort to after a period of black “activism”. I.E. turn a blind eye to black criminal activity for fear of being called a “racist”. Just another version of the law of unintended consequences really.

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  19. No, I haven’t read it. It’s about Sicily, right?

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  20. Haven Monahan done it.

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  21. “The invasion of Europe, set off by Obama’s failed policy in the Middle East.”

    To be fair to Obama (not that I am either interested or inclined to be so), the Middle East policy of his administration (whatever that is) is not much different than that of Bush the Younger’s administration (whatever that was).

    The US governments’ mideast policy has not changed significantly in 25 years, as far as I can tell. It is a kind of mutually assured destruction. However unlike in the cold war, where the MAD was absolute but only potential, the current version is piece-wise, chronic, unending, and real.

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  22. “Someone hit Trump’s music.”

    Fittingly enough, Dee Snyder gave Trump his blessing to use “We’re Not Gonna Take It” at his campaign rallies. Trump should make full use of it. It is a powerful anthem of pissed-off dissatisfaction.

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  23. Sunday Assorted Links | Marginal Counterrevolution
    says:
    • Website     Show CommentNext New Comment

    […] 5. How Black Lives Matter killed dozens of Blacks. […]

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  24. From January through mid-April, the city’s monthly homicide totals were near the same pace of recent years – there were 58 homicides in the period in 2015, 50 in 2014 and 59 in 2013. …

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc? That’s usually not a sound argument, but res ipsa loquitur!

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  25. anonymous
    says:
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    Experts told me that the evidence leaves only one possibility—the KKK sent Haven Monahan on a mission because Steve Sailer wrote an article about Baltimore. Steve, how can you live with yourself!

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  26. Nothing like an old fashioned debunking from thinkprogress.

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  27. This reminds me of an unintentionally hilarious moment in the movie Double Indemnity.

    Walter knows his partner in crime, Phyllis, uses men to get what she wants. Nevertheless he is surprised and puzzled to learn she’s been meeting her stepdaughter’s boyfriend, Zachetti. He muses in a voiceover, “Phyllis and Zachetti. What was he doing up at her house? I couldn’t figure that one out.
    I tried to make sense out of it
    and got nowhere.”

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  28. You’re missing an important statistical difference between the two periods:

    1) Pre – Freddie Gray intervals: 50 to 58 represents a 8/sqrt(50)=1.1 sigma increase in homicides (i.e., not significant, so possibly noise).

    2.) Post – Freddie Gray intervals: 161 to 286 represents a 125/sqrt(161)=9.9 sigma increase in homicides (i.e., as significant a signal as “certainty” itself).

    Bottom line: Homicides in Baltimore are way, way up and the most plausible explanation (though never the only one) is yet another local outbreak of the “Ferguson” effect.

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  29. Just another version of the law of unintended consequences really.

    If the effect of black thugs rioting and agitating is that the police stand down in their community, I’d call that an intended consequence.

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  30. Trump uses “Rocket Man” and “Phantom of the Opera” at his rallies because Sir Elton and Sir Andrew own apartments in Trump Tower.

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  31. In 2014, Baltimore had 211 homicides, which the Police Department said was the city’s second-lowest number since 1972. By the end of 2015, the number of homicides rose to 344. That was not the overall record: the city had 353 homicides in 1993, when its population was larger. Experts say per-capita homicide rates are a better measure than overall annual totals.

    It’s a good thing we have experts to explain these things to us. Where would society be without them?

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  32. Look at the calendar . It’s too cold from January to mid-April for murder ” res ipsa loquitur”.

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  33. Concealed carry is almost non-existent in the state of Maryland. How much crime has spread beyond the boundaries of Baltimore?

    After the Civil War, the Southern states were denied self-government and placed under military occupation. Supporters of the Confederacy were denied suffrage, and the only people who could vote were freed slaves and carpetbaggers.

    We should consider doing something like this to the crime-ridden cities, and even states as in the case of California.

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  34. Anonymous
    says:
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    If he’s going to use Elton John, he might as well use the Pet Shop Boys’ “New York City Boy” too:

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  35. Murders in Baltimore: 344
    Population of Baltimore: 622,000
    Murder Rate: 55/100,000

    So Baltimore is more dangerous than Venezuela, and comes in 2nd on country-level homicide rates.

    WOW!

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  36. Pre Black Lives Matter:

    2014: 50 homicides

    2015: 58

    Increase +16%

    Post Black Lives Matter:

    2014: 161

    2015: 286

    Increase +78%

    I don’t see any pattern here. It’s just one of those unsolved mysteries like the Bermuda Triangle. The only way I can see ever solving it is giving a lot of grants out to academics, think tanks, etc. so they can get to the bottom of this

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  37. What’s interesting is the degree to which everything seems to all be coming to a head towards the end of Obama’s presidency…

    Temper tantrums on college campuses all over the US.

    If you’ll remember, it was near the end of his third year in office that the people who voted for him the first time were so mad at the state of the world that they took to camping out in parks and calling for a global revolution.

    That didn’t stop them from voting for him again a year later, though.

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  38. Are they tenants of Trump?

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  39. It’s too cold from January to mid-April for murder.

    And yet, it was warm enough in that just over 1/4 of the calendar year to commit almost 1/4 of the homicides in 2014, but only about 1/5 in 2015.

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  40. Isn’t it kind of shabby thinking to say that the thinkprogress article debunked Steve’s post, when the article was about Ferguson, and Steve’s post was about Baltimore? Even if the article dud successfully debunk that possibility in Ferguson, it could still be true for Baltimore.

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  41. Imagine NASA trying to put a rocket into orbit while refusing to recognize the law of gravity. These criminology “experts” are like that.

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  42. Anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    I’m not sure, but Sir Elton is, and Liberace was. They may as well be. It must be all that gold and marble. And the, uh, towering size.

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  43. The most predictive book of all.

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  44. the police are getting it from both sides. they can’t admit that they are acting any differently because then they’ll be accused of being soft on crime. of course pressure forces them to in fact act differently.

    i may have read somewhere that nyc incarcerates for an average of 3 years as opposed to 1 year in chicago for illegal gun possession. This might be a simpler place to start with blown out hell holes like baltimore, chicago and st. louis.

    btw. i went to graduate school in st. louis in the early ’90′s. as i recall the city was completely segregated. with some very nice off limits gated communities in the central west end.

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  45. Experts have not pointed to a single, dominant reason for this rise in homicides in Baltimore, nor have they definitively established any kind of causal link between the unrest in April after Freddie Gray’s death and the increase in killings.

    Yep, avoid an inconvenient truth with Slothful Induction.

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  46. We can very much pin much of the housing debacle on W Bush and his pushing of no down payment loans.

    While Lolo Soetoro’s son didn’t actively push policies that damaged the economy, he didn’t do much to help it.

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  47. Without the Federal Reserve pushing down interest rates to insanely low levels and keeping them there for far too long in the early 2000′s and expanding the money supply, there would not have been any housing bubble. All you have to do is go back and read the columns of Paul Krugman in 2000-2002 in the NY Times, and you’ll see he was actively calling for the Fed to create a “housing bubble” to make up for the burst “internet/telecom stock market bubble” of the late 1990′s, which was also caused by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. How do you create a housing bubble? Lower interest rates and expand the money supply. That’s basic economics. In the same way, our current bubble was the creation of Ben Bernanke (Krugman’s former colleague at Princeton) who kept coming up with novel ways to expand the Fed’s balance sheet. (Bernanke, btw, was a Governor on the Federal Reserve Board back in 2002 when Greenspan lowered the Federal Funds rate to 1%. Minutes of the Fed meeting show Bernanke was arguing for a 0.5% rate.) GWB had next to nothing to do with housing bubble. He worked his mischief in other ways.

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  48. ” their” money? Give this guy a soggy brownie.

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  49. Blacklisted neurobiologist Adam Perkins has a clue. In fact, he wrote a book about it last November and was watsoned for his trouble. He calls it ” The Welfare Trait”.
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/tell-the-truth-about-benefit-claimants-and-the-left-shuts-you-down/

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  50. Uh, I think you may want to check your math.

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  51. Actually they do make a point = “the most promising evidence in support of the “Ferguson Effect” was the ratio of property crimes in St. Louis, which remained relatively consistent until August, and increased thereafter.”

    Has anyone looked at property crime in Baltimore? If the cops decided that they were going to spend their time eating donuts so they wouldn’t get in trouble with BLM, you would expect property crime to go up a lot. Murder is still fairly rare (rare enough that the numbers tend to jump around somewhat randomly month to month) but in a place like Baltimore there is a LOT of property crime so you have a bigger, more statistically significant base.

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  52. Baltimore’s Homicide Record in 2015: a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma

    Would that make it a burrito, an enchilada, or a tamale?

    I know… a Little Debbie Swiss Roll!

    Or a matryoshka doll?

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  53. I agree that a look at property crimes might have corroborative value to explore the hypothesis of Ferguson effect. One drawback is that property crime is often underreported, whereas homicide is not–it’s hard to ignore a dead body.

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  54. Yes to everything you say, but we should have seen a bubble in other durable goods; such as land and businesses; if it was purely a case of printing money and lowering interest rates.

    Check the archives right here at iSteve. He has extensively blogged about the regulatory and political shenanigans that fueled the housing bubble.

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  55. Has anyone looked at property crime in Baltimore?

    There may be something there, but it is a weaker proxy for crime. If there are already high property crime rates, people tend not to report added events because they perceive that the system is maxed out and adding reports is just a waste of time and emotional energy. They just add locks and get by with less stuff (ghettofication).

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  56. There is no such thing as the “Ferguson Effect”. There is a “Thuggish government employees not wanting to get caught breaking the law Effect”.

    The cops are paid to take risks. If they no longer want to take those risks, then we need to start cutting the bloated paychecks, platinum benefits, and making sure they stay working until the age of 72 like honest citizens are expected to do.

    It is well past time we started disarming cops, citizens should be armed, not government employees.

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  57. “Though boys throw stones at frogs in sport, the frogs do not die in sport, but in earnest.”

    Something to remember with the victims of all crimes. So well said.

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  58. You have entirely missed the point of the lesson.

    What are the root causes that would force this oppressed individual to break into your house of privilege?

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  59. I’m surprised no one has mentioned the obvious cause — global warming.

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  60. Obama is a tool of the bankstas. He doesn’t think up financial foolishness, he rubber-stamps it.

    When he agreed to eliminate the “mark-to-market” financial accounting rule in April 2009, the handwriting was on the wall.

    And that blind obedience is why Goldman Sachs gave him a million dollars in 2008 and only gave McCain one quarter of that.

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  61. Good thing Nazis weren’t black.

    If so, we would still be wondering how WWII happened and why so many were killed?

    What happened? Was it the teens? Must have been the youth. After all, there was the Hitler Youth.

    PS. It took two months before Clinton used the g-word about Rwanda.

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  62. My theory is that werewolves have bitten people, and this causes them to become violent. What else could cause the violence in Baltimore?

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  63. Point well taken, but I notice it was already trending upward.

    Well, there is the notion of statistical noise…

    But, perhaps a more relevant factor would be Michael Brown in St. Louis in August 2014 which occurred between the early 2014 and early 2015 periods given. This resulted in the national prominence of BLM around the same time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Lives_Matter

    Steve’s pre/post BLM periods might be better termed pre/post Freddy Gray.

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  64. anonymous
    says:
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    Lets keep in mind that this is an all black affair. There’s no jump in white homicide rates or anything like that. Whites and everyone else are the ones trying to make sense of what’s going on, what the causes might be and are expected to pick up the pieces afterward, paying the tax money for police, courts, jails, hospital treatment, physical rehab, various programs in hopes of dissuading black youth from lives of crime and so on. It goes up, it goes down, mostly the reasons given are hardly more than surmise, the good sounding guesses of the moment are later superseded by other guesses pushed by academics. One can’t go to the source and get a coherent answer out of any blacks because they themselves don’t know or care. The only thing one can get out of them is blame someone else-white, that is-or the standard formula of send more money.
    It all seems cyclical; Chicago had big blowout years in ’74 and ’92. In the first ten days of this new year we had close to one hundred shootings, starting off the year with a bang. The public firing of the police chief doesn’t seem to have accomplished much in appeasing the black population. Blacks are inherently a violent breed and large numbers are always ‘going off’ for some reason. That’s just the reality. They require greater control and various barriers between them and everyone else have to be erected to prevent spillover. The ‘why’ of what they do isn’t as relevant as the fact they’re doing it. As an old timer put it to me a long time ago, ‘they is what they is, they does what they does’.

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  65. Blacklisted neurobiologist Adam Perkins has a clue. In fact, he wrote a book about it last November and was watsoned for his trouble. He calls it ” The Welfare Trait”.

    There has been some discussion of that book at Dr. James Thompson’s blog over the last week. If anyone is interested start at http://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/the-welfare-trait.html and move forward.

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  66. Without the Federal Reserve pushing down interest rates to insanely low levels and keeping them there for far too long in the early 2000′s and expanding the money supply, there would not have been any housing bubble.

    But it took more than low rates to create the bubble. Remember, in much of the US (e.g., Texas), even with low rates, there was no housing bubble.

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  67. And of course there was a massive 72% increase in non-fatal shootings in 2015. (Can’t find the monthly breakdown at the moment, but I recall it being reported as spiking post-Freddie.)

    Given Baltimore’s policy of allowing space for destruction, maybe it’s time they try out sociologist Randall Collin’s suggestion that we re-institute dueling in inner cities.

    Gangbangers need safe spaces, too.

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  68. The problem is progresso math:

    50 years of Afro-communist failure, crime and racism +
    1 violent tax-funded Afro-communist movement creating havoc +
    1 police force scared to do its job +
    1 progresso media providing cover +
    1 anti-American administration +
    87% increase in homicide =
    white racism

    As a side note, if you just put “white racism” as the answer to any Common Core math problem you’re going to get an A.

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  69. I live in a Baltimore suburb and when I caught two black women trying to steal my patio screen door in broad daylight this April, I didn’t report it.

    My feeling was that they did this in the wake of the Baltimore riots because 1). An atmosphere of criminality had become the norm and 2). They knew cops were preoccupied and wouldn’t care too much. And had I called the cops they either would have been too busy because of the riots or simply filled out a report and said “OK, bye.” So what would have been the point?

    I know anecdotes don’t = studies. But being in this part of Maryland and talking with people, my feeling is that property theft is pretty common, especially after the April riots.

    The good news is that I got to keep my screen door, which the black women claimed “had fallen off” and they were “fixing.” Yeah, right.

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  70. What are they looking for, a way to put unrest into a syringe, inject it into healthy mice, and see if they come down with increased homicide rates?

    No, dear sir, !SCIENCE! has shown that to do this one must accelerate an unrestitron to near light-speed near a black body. Unfortunately this would require a Large Trayvon collider, which current technology is not yet capable of building,

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  71. I am not denying that many players contributed to the housing bubble fiasco, from ratings agencies, investment banks, sub-prime lenders, etc., even President GWB, but without the fuel supplied by the Federal Reserve the fire would have burned out rather quickly and wouldn’t have caused the devastation it did. The housing bubble was primarily created by the Fed. Housing is especially sensitive to interest rates and money supply. For a long time after WWII, housing was the sector that the Fed used to affect the economy as a whole by lowering and raising interest rates.

    I don’t agree that you can’t have bubbles in one area without having bubbles across the entire economy. For many years after WWII, housing was relatively flat(a carryover from the Great Depression) until the baby boomers got old enough to buy houses, which was the early 70′s, when housing took off and stocks generally lagged. Gold, once the price control was removed, also shot up in the 70′s, as did oil. In the meantime, after WWII, there was a pretty robust boom in stocks that lasted until 1969. In the 90′s, we again saw a stock market bubble but not a housing bubble.

    BTW I had a friend who had moved to Baltimore in late 1999/early 2000 because of a job change and was undecided whether to buy or rent. Once the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2000/2001, I urged her to buy because I knew what was coming, and she did.

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  72. Basilicata, actually.

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  73. I remember watching a documentary filmed in Baltimore called “12 O’clock Boys.” The video followed the life of a pre teen black boy, Pug, who idolizes the gangs of dirt bike/atv riders who roam in packs (20-30 at a time) and take over streets in Baltimore. The police have orders not to pursue, so the 12 o’clockers act with impunity. Pug, already sporting tattoos at 12 years of age, lives with his single mother and siblings. He also rarely attends school. More than anything the film high lights the dysfunction of inner city Baltimore, or better stated black Baltimore. I don’t know how you would expect police to prevent murders, not solve them, if they aren’t even allowed to patrol traffic.

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  74. Anon, Cleveland with a population (2010 Census) of 369,000 (53% Black) recorded more than 130 murders in 2015, so about 33 per 100,000. An editorial written by a black columnist, Philip Morris, for the Plains Dealer stated that more than 90% of the murders were black on black. Included in the 2015 murders were three black children, a 5 year old boy , a 3 year old boy and a 5 month old girl….all killed in drive by shootings. Those three murders alone, in my opinion, make Cleveland a third world city.

    • Agree: BB753
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  75. If he uses Mr John’s music maybe Trump is going after the pederast vote.

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  76. Residents, analysts and policymakers here are divided over the precise cause of the surge in homicides. …

    The War on Noticing has gone into hyperdrive….call NASA

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  77. Snooty People In Funny Hats | The Z Blog
    says:
    • Website     Show CommentNext New Comment

    […] Sailer has a post up on this article in the NYTimes about Baltimore’s rising crime rate. When reading ruling […]

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  78. “Nope sorry this shabby thinking has been debunked:

    thinkprogress.org/justice/2015/06/17/3670203/ferguson-effect-isnt-real-in-st-louis/”

    That article did not “debunk” anything. To think that it did is an example of shabby thinking.

    Congratulations. You are a shabby thinker.

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  79. I believe there are certain unique factors at play in Texas which do not apply elsewhere, such as the absence of zoning restrictions in Houston, for example, and which worked to keep the housing prices relatively restrained. I guess you believe that as Texas goes, so goes the nation.

    Well, I don’t know about you, but I majored in economics in college and learned one of the more basic tools the Federal Reserve had was the ability to raise and lower interest rates and one of the main objects of that policy was to affect housing. In fact, you don’t have to take my word for it. Here is a message I posted on TAC five years ago and reposted on unz.com a few months back re something Nobel Economist Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at Princeton, had to say in his NY Times article back in 2002:

    “tbraton says:
    December 10, 2010 at 7:41 am
    From a Paul Krugman column on August 2, 2002:

    “The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn’t a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html?ref=paulkrugman

    Well, Alan Greenpan, aided by then Governor Ben Bernanke, certainly followed Krugman’s advice and started lowering all ready low interest rate even lower, getting the fed funds rate down to 1% by June 2003 and keeping it at that level for a year. (We now know from the release of the OMC minutes that Bernanke was urging a cut to 0.5%.) The housing bubble, like the internet/telecom bubble of the late 1990’s, was on its way.

    As I noted earlier, Krugman refers to the “irrational exuberance” of the 1990’s without acknowledging or displaying any awareness of the Fed’s contribution to that climate. I find him to be intellectually dishonest in addition to being intellectually wedded to a deep belief in government action to regulate the economy.”

    and I followed with another post on TAC as follows:

    “tbraton says:
    December 10, 2010 at 10:23 am
    From a Krugman column of May 28, 2002, two months before his August column calling for a housing bubble to replace the NASDAQ bubble:

    “Perhaps the most striking difference between the Reagan recession and the Bush recession involves housing. In 1982, thanks to several years of very high interest rates, home building was moribund: real residential investment was at a 13-year low, more than 40 percent below its previous peak. So there was a lot of demand ready to roll as soon as interest rates fell. In fact, during the first year of the Reagan recovery residential investment rose 46 percent. Basically, it was a housing-led boom.

    This time, residential investment kept rising through the recession, thanks to the Fed’s interest rate cuts. It’s hard to see a dramatic further increase; if anything, housing may be in a mild bubble. ” http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/28/opinion/where-s-the-boom.html?ref=paulkrugman

    So, even though Krugman acknowledged there was a “mild bubble” in housing already in May 2002, he nevertheless strongly endorsed a further lowering of interest rates three months later in order to create a greater housing bubble to replace the “NASDAQ bubble” of the late 1990’s. I am not sure what Krugman thought was going to be accomplished by the creation of such a bubble and what that has to do with real economic growth. I think we now know that a housing bubble has much more destructive effects that a stock market bubble and greater ramifications for the financial system.

    BTW, having been a regular reader of Barron’s for more than 30 years, I can say that anyone who read Barron’s from 2002 to 2003 would have been fully aware that the Fed was following Krugman’s advice and trying to “create a housing bubble to replace the NASDAQ bubble.” Since I lived in South Florida at the time, that view conformed with everything I was hearing and seeing. That was why I was puzzled by Greenspan’s and Bernanke’s later disclaimers that they were not aware that there was a housing bubble until it burst. What effect did they think their extremely low interest rate policy was having? At least Paul Krugman was honest enough and smart enough to recognize what effect his low interest rate advice was going to have: it was going to produce a housing bubble.”

    For you to challenge my contention that the Fed was responsible for the housing bubble is also to claim that Nobel Economics Prof. Paul Krugman doesn’t know what he is talking about when he was calling for a “housing bubble” to replace the burst “internet/telecom bubble” of the late 90′s. Now I have many gripes about Paul Krugman’s advice, but, as far as stating the relationship between low interest rates and housing, he was right on the mark and stating textbook economics.

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  80. Experts have not pointed to a single, dominant reason for this rise in homicides in Baltimore, nor have they definitively established any kind of causal link between the unrest in April after Freddie Gray’s death and the increase in killings.

    The purpose of the article is not to delve into what caused the homicide spike. It is instead to officially proclaim the above. Nothing more.

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  81. Lunar reports show that there was an abnormally high number of full moons over Baltimore in 2015.

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  82. BTW I had a friend who had moved to Baltimore in late 1999/early 2000 because of a job change and was undecided whether to buy or rent. Once the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2000/2001, I urged her to buy because I knew what was coming, and she did.

    And what did you do?

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  83. Sounds like an episode of “The Wire.”

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  84. “And what did you do?”

    I started getting back in the stock market in the summer of 2002, a bit too early as it turned out, but still pretty good. Had I known a housing bubble was going to develop, I probably would have bought a couple of houses. But real estate requires much more work than investing in stocks, so I generally invest in the stock market.

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  85. The advice of a retired black Milwaukee cop in my “changing” neighborhood was to add a frisson of violence to your phone call. That way the police show up right away. For example [at 3am]: “There are some noises in my side yard! I’m going to get my gun and go check it out!”

    As he explained, if you merely say “I think there is a prowler in my yard”, they will tell you to stay inside and lock the doors … and they might get there in an hour or two. But the possibility of gunfire is a powerful motivator.

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  86. Really good point. This is ideology at the fundamental level – the provision of an intellectual alibi to liberals, enabling them to both stay the course on this issue and, despite the contrary evidence, continue thinking of themselves as the reality-based community.

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  87. That’s interesting advice, but it seems to me it would significantly increase the chances of the police engaging in a way that might have unintended consequences for you (injury or unpleasant grilling about your gun).

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  88. Interest rates weren’t lowered on everything. I bet getting a business loan was still as difficult as ever requiring a lot of documentation and a sound business plan. Undeveloped land typically requires a 50% down payment. I don’t know about farm land but residential real estate was the place where the lending standards were relaxed to the point of being non-existent. You had Wall Street buying every mortgage they could get their hands on and you had those borrow 125% of the home value loans to get around laws allowing people to discharge unsecured personal loans in bankruptcy court.

    It was both lowering the interest rates and lowering the standards. Both together enlarged the pool of potential buyers which drove the prices to the unsustainable levels they reached.

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  89. I saw what you did there…

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  90. Also the mass immigration into Europe in the last few months had very little to do with Obama. You’ll have to talk to Merkel about her genius move that set off that flood.

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  91. Are there more temper tantrums on campuses, or merely more coverage of them? College students protest at the drop of a hat, but if the prestige media decides we don’t need to hear about it, it didn’t happen. FWIW, there was at least one riot on campus when I was in college that got no coverage anywhere outside the college paper; I suspect that’s normal.

    You should be at least as skeptical of news stories that reinforce your beliefs as news stories that undermine them.

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  92. I wonder if we could somehow tease out the “working to rule” aspect of this (cops refusing to stick their necks out) from whatever effect the riots and looting might have had on criminal behavior.

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  93. If the police are intentionally slowing down to protest the prosecution, you might see fewer property crimes reported as they stop taking the reports.

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  94. Do you really believe that in US-occupied Germany, Merkel could have acted on her own without permission from the colonial authorities? Obama, or whoever’s in charge in the Deep State, had to give her the green light to unleash the Merkel Youth upon Europe.

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  95. SBPL = shooting at each other.

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  96. Obama, or whoever’s in charge in the Deep State, had to give her the green light to unleash the Merkel Youth upon Europe.

    Because they want to elect Donald Trump? And Marine Le Pen?

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  97. There is no such thing as the “Ferguson Effect”. There is a “Thuggish government employees not wanting to get caught breaking the law Effect”.

    In the Ferguson incident, police officer Darren Wilson was justified in shooting Michael Brown. The US Department of Justice published a report that included these two key sentences:

    …. federal prosecutors found Wilson’s account to be credible.

    and

    …. the shots fired by Wilson after Brown turned around were in self-defense and were not objectively unreasonable under the Fourth Amendment.

    As police officer Wilson retreated, Brown charged 17 yards forward, trying to grab Wilson’s gun. Brown was trying to murder Wilson.

    The below webpage includes some illustrations of Brown’s murderous charge toward police officer Wilson.

    http://people-who-did-not-see.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-we-know-that-three-did-not-see.html

    Because police officer Wilson was subjected to so much unjustified criticism, persecution and threats after the Ferguson incident, the hesitance of other police officers to involve themselves in subsequent incidents is called “the Ferguson effect”.

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  98. No, because they know they can get away with flooding Europe with all the riff-raff from MENA and SS Africa. It’s good for the elites, both American and European. Cheap labor and eradicating the native working and middle classes is all they care about. Although I believe the recent immivasion was Merkel’s brain-child, her legacy. Instead of staying home and raising 3 little German kids, this barren stupid old cow preferred to run for office and destroy her country. Women don’t belong anywhere in politics, or near an electoral booth, for that matter.

    As for Marine Le Pen, ( I still don’t trust her, though, the way I knew his father was the real thing) she’s never going to get elected, as the recent elections in France proved, the system is rigged to prevent populists from taking power. While Trump, if he ever reaches the White House, which is unlikely, won’t be able to change much of anything unless he overthrows the Deep State in a coup of some sort. Which is even more unlikely.

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  99. Yes. I don’t think the U.S. would apply any significant pressure on Germany wrt its migrant policies. To the extent we strong-arm them, it’s about surveillance and IP law, and they are in a good position to push back.

    Merkel’s policy is her own.

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  100. It’s pretty plausible that Baltimore and St Louis have had a direct effect from the protests and rioting and such. I doubt this has much to do with political rhetoric–more likely the cops are lying low to avoid more trouble, or are engaging in a work slowdown to protest what they perceive as insufficient support from above. And the blip in crime rates may just be some other factor we don’t understand yet.

    Cell phone cameras have changed the world in a pretty fundamental way. A de facto policy of letting the cops beat the hell out of anyone who’s too troublesome was more or less workable when most of those beatings were invisible. But that world’s gone. The more of that stuff is visible, the more evidence of it is easy to find, the less support the cops will have when they do it. I suspect that the police departments that want to retain their old ways are in much the same position as the cab medallion holders trying to survive in a world with Uber. They’re used to being enough of a power locally that they can have their way, but it’s not going to work anymore.

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  101. The increase in murders in Baltimore, Chicago and elsewhere will lead grow the police forces in those cities. More (tax-payer funded) job opportunities for some young people.

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  102. Are they serious? they don’t know the cause of the increase. Let’s see, black ran city, idiot black mayor intimidates the police so they stop enforcing the law. There is no control on the jungle. Here’s a hint. If you take black males out of the crime stats you don’t have any crime. Tada, mystery solved.

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  103. Yes, it was her idea, as I said in a previous comment that got blocked, presumably because you cannot mention stupidity, barrenness and old cows in a post about Angela Merkel.

    But the US gave the green light. Maybe they figured the Middle East needed a scape valve to keep it always boiling, damn the Europeans.

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  104. your right about one thing. the media refuses to report black on white crime so it’s no big deal, even though it more epidemic than police shooting black.

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  105. They don’t need safe spaces, they need a recipient for a Father’s Day gift.

    But legalizing dueling between agreeing parties does seem like a realistic solution to the havoc.

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  106. it’s hard to ignore a dead body.

    Give the thirdworldification time to work its magic. Come back in 50 years and you’ll be seeing people skipping over a body with two bullets in it on their way to work with a Starbucks coffee in their hand. It won’t be hard to do, either – the rains will have washed the body into the huge potholes in the road.

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  107. Maybe the excitement came from Trump’s adherence to Truth?

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  108. thirdworldification

    Tritocosmification?

    Tertiamundification?

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  109. Now I’m sorry I used up my “agree” above. That’s funny.

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  110. anonymous
    says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    The increase in murders in Baltimore, Chicago and elsewhere will lead grow the police forces in those cities. More (tax-payer funded) job opportunities for some young people.

    One problem with that is that new hires are brought on with diversity in mind. So we end up getting mostly worthless female-usually dyke-cops and black/browns who couldn’t ride the affirmative action gravy train elsewhere due to mediocrity. Cops are expensive public employees and paying for more to do less is a real tax waster.

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  111. Yes, Markin. Around that time my husband gave up trying to get an SBA loan for a reasonable rate (they wanted 8% interest or something) and borrowed from a family member. That worked out great for all involved.

    A few years later, 2005/2006, home loans were doing their no-money down stuff and people were buying right and left. Mostly the real estate agents made a killing.

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  112. Sicily and the the natives of the same were always backwards as far as political cohesiveness went . That’s why the Greeks were able to so easily colonize and dominate the island as well as the Carthaginians .

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  113. your right about one thing. the media refuses to report black on white crime so it’s no big deal, even though it more epidemic than police shooting black.

    B-on-W crime isn’t news. It’s everyday life in America.

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  114. Maybe the excitement came from Trump’s adherence to Truth?

    Let’s not inflate Truth’s ego more than it is already.

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  115. Libs love metrics they can use to “prove” things like Sandy Hook was more violent than Detroit in 2012.

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  116. And urban black crime (with overwhelmingly black victims) is even less news. For all that the BLM protests likely get a lot wrong, they’re damned right to be upset about the horror show of random kids getting killed by stray bullets in drive-bys. (It’s quite a stretch to blame that on white racism, though.)

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  117. The invasion of Europe, set off by Obama’s failed policy in the Middle East.

    I loathe Obama as much as anyone else with at least two brain cells to rub together, but I put the blame for the invasion of Europe on neo-cons. Invading Iraq led to this, and that was done for Israel’s sake. And it isn’t Christians in Europe who are pushing for immigration there. “Anti-Christian forces”, who tend to have Scots-Irish ancestry, get Iraq toppled, and what’s left of Christendom invaded, and they didn’t even have to break a sweat. Pretty sweet.

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  118. They do blame it on white racism, though.

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Past
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Are elite university admissions based on meritocracy and diversity as claimed?
Hundreds of POWs may have been left to die in Vietnam, abandoned by their government—and our media.