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From the Financial Times via Marginal Revolution:

I have just spent a week in Beijing talking to officials and intellectuals, many of whom are awed by [Trump's] skill as a strategist and tactician…He [Yafei] worries that strategic competition has become the new normal and says that “trade wars are just the tip of the iceberg”.

…In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington. Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong…

 

 
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  1. Anonymous[135] • Disclaimer says:

    Well, no one ever said the Chinese were stupid. I think this analysis has much merit.

  2. Dave Pinsen says: • Website

    The Chinese have a much higher opinion of Trump than the Reiner clan does.

  3. Anon[190] • Disclaimer says:

    Jees Steve, it’s 6:20 a.m. on the east coast, are you on a meth bender?

    • LOL: AndrewR
    • Replies: @tyrone
    , @JudyBlumeSussman
  4. They’re right; just, Trump does many/some of these things sub-consciously, without any grand plan. He doesn’t possess Caesarean powers & he, I think, can- at best- prepare US for either a minority-majority white rule (something like mega-Brazil of 1960s) or relatively bloodless dissolution.

    His military, economic….buildup is even more important as the infrastructural basis of Kulturkampf to overthrow New Left ideology that has been the ruling media & social culture in past few decades.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    , @Daniel Williams
  5. Joseph Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” was all the rage in Econ classes in the 1980′s, even at a mid-level state university like mine. I remember thinking (fuzzily) “this doesn’t sound so good for big companies.” (My father worked in the HQ for one of the Big Three auto companies then.)

    Turns out it wasn’t, at least not for American auto workers.

    “Shiva the destroyer” benefits who, exactly?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Anonymous
  6. @Paul Jolliffe

    Creative Destruction of old companies means you don’t have to pay for the health care insurance of older workers. Maybe Facebook isn’t quite the never-ending goldmine everybody thought it was 48 hours ago, but at least Facebook employees don’t cost Zuck much in insurance premiums.

  7. Anon[420] • Disclaimer says:

    Hur hur, Drumpf is a stupid orange Cheeto stupid Russian puppet

    • Replies: @Wally
    , @Sue
  8. as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.

    As someone who lives outside the US, I have a hard time imagining how the world order could be made even more favorable to the Washington than it already is. When you live abroad, you realize what a behemoth the US is relative to the rest of the world. Europe is a cultural colony of the US, the Chinese are dependent on our dollars and market to keep their economy alive, and even Russia is still essentially at the mercy of the ability of the US-Saudi alliance to manage oil prices. All the tech giants and most of the innovations of the last few decades are American. NATO is actually a fairly cheap way for the US military to force European countries provide political cover for whatever the US wants to do. We would not have had European support for bombing Serbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed to creating.

    If the Chinese are right, it is pretty clear why the “Deep State” hates Trump. For decades we have been running the world for the benefit of US businesses and government elites. Trump is going to wreck all that, and it is not clear at all who will benefit. Certainly not the Republican donors who fund the party.

  9. Anonymous[906] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Hark! I hear the multi-dimensional chess analogies approaching even as we speak…

    But seriously, I’d love for Trump to have the last laugh. I don’t expect it–not by a long shot–but I’d love it.

  10. eah says:

    China is the largest foreign holder of US debt — only Japan comes close — it is no surprise that the US runs very large trade deficits with both countries — both could easily and effectively push back by selling some of their holdings; it is naive to think there are not negotiations going on behind the scenes to specifically avoid that: the US is very vulnerable here — similar to the ‘petrodollar’ arrangement, there has no doubt been an agreement that the US would tolerate large trade deficits as long as these countries continued to finance Washington by buying Treasury debt — this benefited the Establishment while simultaneously destroying the livelihoods of ordinary Americans.

    Addressing trade imbalances is only half of the issue.

  11. May they live in interesting times.

  12. @Anonymous

    Trump a master tactician? I assure you, Judd Apatow does not agree. He is backed up by Mickey Rourke. Mickey Rourke!

  13. Tyrion 2 says: • Website

    Not that it will ever be reported but Trump also probably just saved Brexit. Juncker has gotten the Trump talk and will now ensure the EU agrees to the “Chequers deal”; which is far better for the UK than remaining in the EU and only a number of (future) increments worse than what we should be achieving.

    So, thank you Donald J Trump. That was really great of you. You’re the President we need, if not the President we want.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
  14. dearieme says:

    I’m not a fan of Trump the man but I am a fan of him as the politician who kept Hillary out of office.

    Is there anything – anything – that would currently be better under a Madame Clinton administration?

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    , @Reg Cæsar
  15. Anonym says:

    My interlocutors say that Mr Trump is the US first president for more than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade, military and ideology. They describe him as a master tactician, focusing on one issue at a time, and extracting as many concessions as he can. They speak of the skillful way Mr Trump has treated President Xi Jinping. “Look at how he handled North Korea,” one says. “He got Xi Jinping to agree to UN sanctions [half a dozen] times, creating an economic stranglehold on the country. China almost turned North Korea into a sworn enemy of the country.” But they also see him as a strategist, willing to declare a truce in each area when there are no more concessions to be had, and then start again with a new front.

    At the end of the day, your ability to negotiate comes down to your relative bargaining position. No one knows this better than Trump.

    Militarily, he can’t really attack China or risk triggering nuclear war. They can’t attack him, only incrementally take over some islands. My guess is that even if the islands are impenetrable and can retaliate to sink carriers, China can still be blockaded easily enough with the US fleet.

    But on trade, he can practically destroy their economy in a bloodless fashion. They have a pair of twos, he has a full house and a stack of chips. He has told them to only say the word, and he will go all in and tax tf out of everything they export to the US. You retaliate, I’ll retaliate until you’re bleeding.

    On ideology, the Chinese government would have to be all over the current Frankfurt School PC idea where only white people are racist, and we must constantly self-flagellate and admit other people into our countries. That is taking some time to dismantle, but Trump is making progress.

    One of the biggest things he does is call the media “Fake News” all the time. It’s newsworthy, unusual, and so the media feel compelled to have themselves humiliated before him every time he does it. It’s both gratifying and effective tactics. Since the media power is something of a bedrock for the anti-white ideology, Trump is undermining the foundations.

    At the end of the day, China would do best supplicating to Trump on trade, saying “Nicee Trumpee, biggee penis!” while keeping up the slow boil conquest by immigration. However, that’s less satisfying to the ego than building military bases on sand bars.

    • Replies: @BB753
    , @Dave Pinsen
  16. “… as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.”

    Considering the world was built on Washington’s terms to start with, not a bad trick. BTW, re-negotiating loans is common in commercial RE, where the schmuck who is “losing” on each round keeps pocketing money on each round until the lender finds himself holding essentially 100% equity in REO.

  17. notanon says:

    that’s an interesting and plausible take

    my version of the same thing (maybe based on wishful thinking) is that the post-war order wasn’t set up to benefit America – it was set up to benefit the Wall St. banking mafia (which used to indirectly benefit America but not any more)

    and so yes to their take but imo the prime target is internal not external – taking out the banking mafia and their pet media using international shenanigans as a tool.

    like i say probably wishful thinking cos the biggest elephant in the room is genetics – if the global north allows itself to be over-run then everyone starves and so the optimal outcome is a temporary alliance between Russia, US and China to prevent that happening.

  18. @eah

    both could easily and effectively push back by selling some of their holdings

    How does a nation hurt the US by selling US debt? If they sell it, that implies someone else is buying it. So a different entity holds some of the debt. The note remains unchanged. It’s all the same from the US side. The interest check goes to a different address.

    • Replies: @Travis
    , @MacNucc11
  19. AndrewR says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    I see a lot of people compare our future to present day Brazil. Besides the important fact that Brazil has never been nearly as developed as the US (a fact which should grant cause for optimism for Americans), Brazil has never seen anything approaching the unrelenting anti-white ideology and propaganda that we have in the US, and insofar as I can tell as an American who visits Brazil every few years and is relatively well versed in the culture and language, I don’t think they’re really even moving in that direction.

    It will certainly be interesting to see how the future plays out. I think a lot of WN rhetoric on this topic is Chicken Little hyperventilation. Conversely, a lot of anti-white leftist triumphalism is also not warranted based on the most probable outcomes. First of all, the number of “white genes” in the gene pool will remain well over 65% for the rest of the century. As people of all ethnicities start to have more relatives and friends of other ethnicities, a lot of the prejudice that people have today will disappear. Then again, anti-white whites, who number in the millions, are people with plenty of white relatives and friends, so I dunno. Life is more complicated and inexplicable than many people will admit.

  20. Busby says:
    @eah

    Sell their holdings at what cost?

    US Treasuries would have to be sold on the open market. How big a discount would the Chinese be willing to accept to “make a point”?

    • Replies: @Sandmich
    , @Lowe
    , @Anon
  21. Hodag says:
    @eah

    “China” holds US government debt because Chinese people hold the debt. In third place is Ireland – which is mostly expatriate US corporate money, not a sinister Finian conspiracy against Uncle Sam.

    1. There is no mechanism to “call in” the debt. The bonds pay out at regular intervals. And if the US wants we can literally run the printing presses (electronically). The debt is denominated in USD.

    2. China holds so much US debt for the same reason Vancouver real estate is so expensive. China has no pension system and her citizens are seeking hard assets for retirement. How will the richest Chinese react if their retirements are crashed by the CCP?

    China is doing nothing to the US bond market without severe consequences to China and if the richest generation of Chinese lose their retirement then the CCP may lose the mandate of heaven.

  22. @Hodag

    In third place is Ireland – which is mostly expatriate US corporate money,

    I was wondering about that. Ireland only has 4.8 million people–where do they come up with enough money to be the third largest holder of US bonds. Answer: turn your country into a branch bank of the US.

  23. vinteuil says:
    @Tyrion 2

    Sounds good, but this is all very puzzling. I guess I have to do my own research.

  24. Jack D says:

    Here is Exhibit A:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/us/politics/trump-europe-trade.html

    Trump is just using the negotiating tactics that he used in business. “I know I have a contract with you that I signed in the past but I am tearing it up because circumstances have changed. It’s not enforceable anyway as a practical matter – my lawyers will raise defenses and keep you in court forever if you try to enforce it. Here is the deal that I am offering you today instead, which is much more favorable for me – take it or leave it.”

    During the campaign I saw one of Trump’s architects – a nice man but a weak man – explain that Trump had done exactly this to him after he had worked really hard to design a casino for Trump. He told this story to show what a bad evil person Trump was, who should never be President, but at the end of the story, he admitted that he had accepted the deal that Trump offered him.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    , @Johann Ricke
  25. @Steve Sailer

    People need to learn NOT to believe ANY promises made to them by big organizations, Big-Biz OR Big-Gov. Healthcare only become the “responsibility” of employers due to a quirk during WWII times, when the labor supply was low, and health benefits were offered in lieu of more pay due to some kind of wage limits (I think).

    I have no love for FaceBook or any of the rest of the social media, internet aggregators or whatever they are called now, believe me. (I have never been a member of FB.). However, this health care/insurance thing should go back to being an individual matter. I’d rather not get into that here, as certain commenters out of Los Angeleees think that people are too dumb to organize health plans and pools on their own and need the LUV of BigGov.

  26. peterike says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    We would not have had European support for bombing Serbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed to creating.

    Well since bombing Serbia was basically a war crime, that would have been good. Since invading Afghanistan was stupid, costly and killed a lot of good Americans for nothing, that would have been good too.

    Of course, Trump probably wouldn’t have done either of those things had he been President at the time. Though I could see him taking the more direct route with Afghanistan: just drop on nuke on them and say, “ok, who’s next?”

    On the other, other hand, would 9/11 have even happened under Trump’s watch? Or would he have put that kibosh on that inside job?

  27. Travis says:
    @eah

    European nations hold twice the debt held by China. But our own Federal reserve still owns more US debt than China, Japan and Europe combined , $4.3 Trillion

    the Fed has started to slowly reduce its bond holdings. One year ago they held $4.5 Trillion and they plan to reduce their balance sheet by $2 Trillion over the next 2 years…which will have the same effect as China and Japan selling 100% of their US treasuries over the next 24 months.

  28. OT – in the UK the War On Corbyn continues. His crime is not being 98% pro-Israel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/25/jewish-newspapers-claim-corbyn-poses-existential-threat

    A government led by Jeremy Corbyn would pose an existential threat to Jewish life in the UK, a joint editorial published by the country’s three most prominent Jewish newspapers has claimed.

    The Jewish Chronicle, Jewish News and Jewish Telegraph each produced similar front pages for their Thursday editions attacking the Labour party’s decision not to fully absorb an internationally accepted definition of antisemitism into its code of conduct, and its wider record on the issue since Corbyn became leader in 2015.

    In their joint editorial, they said the party was until recently the natural home for the Jewish community, but that Labour had “seen its values and integrity eroded by Corbynite contempt for Jews and Israel” and now faced being seen as institutionally racist.

    “With the government in Brexit disarray, there is a clear and present danger that a man with a default blindness to the Jewish community’s fears, a man who has a problem seeing that hateful rhetoric aimed at Israel can easily step into antisemitism, could be our next prime minister.”

    I guess this is the equivalent of standing with your face six inches away from your target’s while continually jabbing him in the chest and hoping to provoke him.

    Responding on Wednesday evening, a Labour spokesperson said such a government posed “no threat of any kind whatsoever to Jewish people”, and that their security was a priority.

    “We understand the strong concerns raised in the Jewish community and are seeking to engage with communal organisations to build trust and confidence in our party. We know there is a huge amount of work to do,” they said.

  29. These guys do not have a clue.

    “Multilateral institutions”, that Trump is often bitching about, are in fact key parts of US-led New World Order and serve America’s goals. The only country they empower is the United States. America uses the power of its international alliances to isolate and crush those who oppose it.

    Without its network of allies America is diminished as a great power. To give you an example, there is no way US could talk to Russia “from a position of strength” without full support from NATO and EU. Dissolve the EU and the entire Eastern Europe returns to Russian protectorate. Who benefits from this? Not USA.

    • Replies: @slumber_j
    , @MBlanc46
    , @Lowe
  30. TheBoom says:

    Anyone who doesn’t want the US working class to be destroyed is an agent of Putin. Apparently, these Chinese are Putin agents for not resisting Putin’s main agent: Drumph.

    • Replies: @Hunsdon
  31. @Anonymous

    We were beaten to it by anonymous and not so anonymous niche blog commenters insisting they are smarter and more competent than a billionaire president who put to bed the two leading political dynasties in his first serious go round.

    • Agree: Hunsdon
    • Replies: @slumber_j
  32. @Peter Akuleyev

    If the Chinese are right, it is pretty clear why the “Deep State” hates Trump. For decades we have been running the world for the benefit of US businesses and government elites.

    Sort of. You could also say Trump is the best thing that could have happened to the deep state/ruling class.

    They have been running the US as a bust out and they’ve get away with it by converting US international power into domestic cash via trade schemes, foreign debt, The Petrodollar ™ etc. All these things, plus declining large scale military capabilities in both relative and absolute terms mean the US is holding a hand that gets weaker every minute.

    Left on this course the establishment has set for us, the US would be basically irrelevant on the world stage within a few decades if not sooner. Now a lot of big brains think it’s a good thing (“stop being the world police”) but actually I think it would suck. We would just get rolled by China and become a colony. I don’t want to live in Brade Runna.

    President Trump is making moves while we still can, and if somebody doesn’t do this, the USA ruling class would soon find themselves out of international power ammo, and ruling over basically nothing except a lot of natural resources and tens of millions of pornhub-trained White thots (which I guess is nothing to sneeze at but) and getting eaten alive by the Chinese ruling class.

    I think (hope) if they manage to sober up some of them will realize that giving a lot of concessions to us and embracing Trumpism is a lot better than getting steamrolled by Chinese.

    This is not meant to be a black pill comment.

  33. @Steve Sailer

    You don’t have to pay their pensions either, in the UK. There’s a long list of companies going under with insolvent pension funds – and it often happens that the executive pension schemes were over-generously funded in the years before collapse.

    Some major Brit companies like BT (British Telecom) are basically huge pension funds with a smaller telecomms arm.

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/19/bt_to_close_pension_scheme/

  34. @27 year old

    Being a Chinese subject would be better then being a white subject of America’s ruling class. You do realize the Chinese 1 Child Policy didn’t apply to ethnic minorities? Chinese ruling elite is many things but they do not hate white people and seek to exterminate them; this makes them light-years ahead of America’s deep state which gets a kick out of ethnic cleansing whites.

    • Replies: @27 year old
  35. @Steve Sailer

    …and it means workers are no longer loyal to their firms because they now they will be screwed over in the long. Creative destruction moves society from cooperate-cooperate to defect-defect; there is a brief benefit when the first mover reaps the gains of screwing over everyone else and then the corpse starts to putrefy.

  36. @27 year old

    Good comment. I’ve just finished quick post on a Zerohedge article that worried about the consequences from the Chinese gov’t and people, of trying to get a more fair deal in trade. What the hell kind of consumer items do they have to boycott – KFC and McDonalds? They don’t even know how to make that stuff right – “special sauce”* does not mean vinegar mixed with soy sauce.

    Seriously, there are the Boeing airliners, but the Chinese are copying the engineering as fast as they can, (I talked to a guy whose company makes alternator/generators for those planes, and he could tell you…). All the rest is commodities. They can find other suppliers, but the price will just go up, as that’s what commodities do – they are fungible, kinda’ like Treasury bonds (speaking of that).

    This is a situation in which I DO appreciate President Trump’s ability as a deal-maker and not another (intentional?) sucker for the American people.

    BTW, what is the black-pill, 27 y/o? I have taken the others, but I don’t want to take something without checking with my doctor, or at least an unz.com commenter. ;-}

    .
    .

    * Spoiler alert – nothing but 1,000-island dressing.

    • Replies: @James Forrestal
  37. Anonymous[370] • Disclaimer says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Go read or watch anything by Peter Zeihan since 2011.

    In 1945, the USA decided to run continuous never-ending trade deficits, and also pay hundreds of billions of dollars to protect everyone else’s trade. Best guess is that extra military presence plus extra trade losses (minus value-add from said trade) is half a trillion last year.

    NATO has become a European integration society, that’s continuously running afoul of core Russian interests (Possibly a good thing, but) even as their share of military input has fallen from half to one-quarter.

    —-

    A truly American world is one where we don’t protect free trade, completely ignore trade rulings for our own interests, abandon most of our global military presence (but carefully don’t disarm, so that half a current US military still isn’t something you want *all showing up on your doorstep at once*), and possibly burn both the Russian and Saudi energy infrastructure to the ground on the way out.

    If we need to *burn Iran to the ground*, it takes one OMFG class sub or 3 missile destroyers. Instead, we have a Carrier Battle Group. That’s what not protecting American core interests looks like.

  38. Dumbo says:

    OT. Speaking of Chincouver, does Canada exist? A Muslim shooter killed a woman and a child and hurt other 13 people the other day in Toronto (using a handgun as assault weapons are harder to come by), but the event was barely commented anywhere and now practically disappeared from the news. If it happens in Europe or the US it is news for weeks, but nobody seems to care about what happens in Canada.

    Anyway, they have found the culprit, it is guns.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/26/americas/toronto-handgun-sale-ban-proposal/index.html

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    , @Brutusale
  39. @Peter Akuleyev

    As someone who lives outside the US, I have a hard time imagining how the world order could be made even more favorable to the Washington than it already is.

    If the Chinese are right, it is pretty clear why the “Deep State” hates Trump. For decades we have been running the world for the benefit of US businesses and government elites.

    Well, exactly. It is not hard to imagine how the world order could be made more favorable to Washington when you realize it’s a different Washington he wants it to favor. What Washington that is requires more imagination. But the existing one already has everything set up how it wants which is why they oppose him.

    We would not have had European support for bombing Serbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed to creating.

    Maybe he does not want the US doing those things in the first place.

    • Replies: @sayless
  40. Anon[204] • Disclaimer says:

    CTRL + F Immigration

    Wages Are Rising in Europe. But Economists Are Puzzled.

    But in recent years the relationship between growth, wages and inflation has become much harder to understand. Economists have devoted enormous energy trying to explain why inflation and wages remained stuck in neutral even as unemployment in countries like Germany fell to record lows.

    I dunno, economists have contempt for the dirt people…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/business/europe-ecb-wages-inflation.html

  41. Lugash says:
    @Jack D

    Here is the deal that I am offering you today instead, which is much more favorable for me – take it or leave it.

    And this is essentially the deal that America’s elites have been offering to white plebes for the past 40 years. I must admit, I love the turnaround trump has offered.

  42. @27 year old

    So basically you’re saying let Trump build it back up and take the heat, and then they can sell us out all over again. Problem with that is the voters have become a lot more aware than they used to be, and the propaganda wing of the globalists has lost much of its effectiveness.

    Right now, they’re working hard to lower standards for home loans to minorities. If they can inflate that housing bubble again, then Americans are just too stupid to save themselves and Trump is only delaying the inevitable. We shall see.

  43. Svigor says:

    Haven’t read the piece yet, but it’s an interesting topic, so I probably will. That said, the Chinese probably think he’s a genius because of the complete dunces and traitors they’re used to from the USG.

    • Agree: sayless
  44. Svigor says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    the Chinese are dependent on our dollars and market to keep their economy alive,

    An advantage we haven’t been pressing.

    NATO is actually a fairly cheap way for the US military to force European countries provide political cover for whatever the US wants to do.

    Well, you know the cure to that, right? Actually maintaining reasonable defense budgets and militaries.

    We would not have had European support for bombing Serbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed to creating.

    Man that would be too bad.

    ***

    Heh, here I was hoping for some meaty article and it turns out the Steve already quoted most of it.

  45. Jason Liu says:

    it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong

    That’s a novel way of looking at it, but the simpler explanation is that multilateral institutions are stifling by design, forcing all its members to abide by rules and norms, which Trump hates.

  46. Svigor says:
    @eah

    The thumbnail sketch is that China needs the US market more than the US needs Chinese goods, but China is getting the better of the current US-China arrangement. That’s just stupid.

  47. Jason Liu says:

    Trade aside, I feel that we are headed towards a second Cold War.

    The western elite has shown that it will never tolerate any power that isn’t a liberal democracy. The mere existence of illiberal states threatens them, whereas the average Chinese doesn’t give two shits about how the west runs its own societies.

    This makes me think the Russians are right. Given the inevitability of ideological conflict, maybe illiberal/nationalistic countries SHOULD be undermining western democracies and preaching our values around the world.

    I don’t want to get into a global war of ideology with the west, but we can’t play defense forever.

    • Replies: @notanon
    , @MBlanc46
  48. @Anonymous

    I don’t think Trump is ever doing multi-dimensional chess.

    He doesn’t have to. All he needs to do is to do the thing he instinctively thinks is right, rather than the thing that everybody else has convinced each other over many decades is the right thing to do. Sometimes this may end up badly, but it seems far more often to end up with great success.

    We are in many ruts. We have lived too long never questioning the warming boil of our pot.

    Trump will go down as The Great Disruptor.

    • Agree: Dave Pinsen, Tyrion 2
    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    , @penskefile
  49. Fredrik says:
    @Anonymous

    Yup, but it also means that any European that draws the same conclusions will have to get behind the EU.

  50. Mike P says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    We would not have had European support for bombing Serbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed to creating.

    Maybe Trump doesn’t want to do these things anyway?

  51. pyrrhus says:
    @Anonymous

    It’s really pretty obvious that such a strategy should have been in force for the last thirty years. But between the wholesale bribery of Congress and the deep state, including people like Larry Summers, and the stupidity of several Presidents, the opposite occurred. Trump has committed the crime of noticing the problem and doing something about it, so the bribed class accuses him of starting a trade war. The reality is that we’ve been in a trade war all along, but weren’t fighting…

  52. pyrrhus says:
    @candid_observer

    Quite right…The “grand strategy” just comes naturally to Trump as a businessman.

  53. Boethiuss says:

    This is a very good point, by Tyler or the Chinese as the case may be. After having been in office for 18 months, I think we have to acknowledge that Trump isn’t as stupid as he looks, he’s more resilient than he looks, and his ideas are more coherent than it looks.

    As far as this particular point goes, if we stipulate that Trump’s overall intentions are good, the problem is the same as it has ever been. There’s no follow through. Trump can’t implement a policy by himself. The people who would be implementing this policy either don’t understand his worldview or aren’t sympathetic to it. And Trump doesn’t have enough personal connections to put reliable people in place of those who are there now.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    , @27 year old
  54. @Jack D

    Trump is just using the negotiating tactics that he used in business. “I know I have a contract with you that I signed in the past but I am tearing it up because circumstances have changed. It’s not enforceable anyway as a practical matter – my lawyers will raise defenses and keep you in court forever if you try to enforce it. Here is the deal that I am offering you today instead, which is much more favorable for me – take it or leave it.”

    Since the end of WWII, our elites have been on autopilot forever – bending over backwards to favor foreign countries at our expense, treating them as if they were war-ravaged charity cases that needed economic breathing space. It’s good that Trump has now pried open the Overton window with respect to this issue. We’ll see soon enough if he has the ability to overhaul the GOP political elite such that they will start seeing things his way, either by persuasion or by replacement. At bottom, Trump is popular with GOP voters not because he’s a cult leader, but because he is the first leader to do what GOP voters actually want, instead of paying their wishes lip service and screwing them after being elected. That’s why Democrats are screaming bloody murder. Because Trump is keeping more of his election promises than any GOP president we’ve encountered in almost 3 decades.

  55. Sandmich says:
    @Busby

    Exactly. Any large move like that would be front-run as well so the discount would be even worse than if they just sold them casually on the open market (there’s only a couple institutions that can absorb that kind of trade, and they don’t play fair). And at the end of the day, after selling their dollar denominated debt, they’re left with a bunch of dollars with which they buy….what exactly? There’s a reason these places hold so much U.S. debt and it’s not out of the kindness of their heart.

  56. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paul Jolliffe

    “Creative destruction” was the buzzword used as propaganda during the 80s by financiers who were performing a “bust out” on productive industry in the US. The financiers weren’t creating anything. They were just looting the country.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bust_Out#Title_reference

    A “bust out” is a common tactic in the organized crime world, wherein a business’ assets and lines of credit are exploited and exhausted to the point of bankruptcy.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
  57. Unfortunately Steve, your analysis misses out on one very key detail.

    The current international order and existing institutions were already created by the US on terms favourable to Washington. In fact, so favourable that no one else had a say and the US essentially wrote the rules carte blanche by men much wiser that than the creatures dwelling in Washington today after ww2 when the US accounted for 50% of the world’s economy. The existing international system serves to buttress American power, tearing it down to renegotiate new norms is a good idea if you are a revisionist power whose current strength is no longer reflected in the system. Not such a great idea to renegotiate if you are substantially weaker than when the norms were originally created.

    I honestly don’t understand why so many Americans are so enamoured with trump to the point that it’s become a self willed personality cult. Trump’s intelligence or lack thereof is secondary to his own personality flaws, that he is a massive narcissist whose one and only loyalty to himself. What he does is secondary to the fact that everything must make him look good. Such people always hurt those closest to them. Rather than the conservative messiah, I see in Trump many things Russians have come to expect in Putin. Zrada. The Trumpsliv is coming and his betrayal will be enormous.

    • Replies: @Svigor
    , @notanon
    , @Johann Ricke
  58. @Peter Akuleyev

    The price America has paid for this is ceding marketshare in our home market to our allies (or in the case of China, strategic competitor), the atrophy of which in turn eroded marketshare abroad as American industries lost competitiveness or simply disappeared. Hence the $800bn merchandise trade deficit.

    The American electronics industry, outside of defense and semiconductors, no longer exists (Chicago was once the world’s largest manufacturing center of televisions and radios). Chrysler is owned by foreigners. General Motors has abandoned Europe. The only remaining American tire company is Goodyear (whose products are inferior to Michelin). One-third of American steel consumption is imported, and many steel mills are now foreign-owned (Arcelor Mittal and Severstal mainly). Only American machine tool company left is Haas.

    Trump correctly recognizes this is a bad deal, as did Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot a generation earlier.

    That Silicon Valley enjoys super profits from its worldwide monopolies doesn’t change the calculus for American workers or the rest of Corporate America.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  59. @eah

    Average daily liquidity in the Treasury market is $500 billion. And the FED can purchase unlimited quantities through open market operations if it so chooses.

    Not only would China take a loss if it chose to rapidly liquidate, but it would put upward pressure on its currency and make its export goods more expensive.

    Paper tiger.

    • Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
  60. @Boethiuss

    Quantity has a quality all its own. The follow-through types above all want to keep their jobs. They can see the Times election map as well as anyone.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  61. Lowe says:
    @Busby

    This is right. The Chinese gov’t cannot push back against US policy by selling treasuries. They might gradually sell down their position for other reasons, but any mass sale would be a loss for them.

    There is no shortage of bidders for US treasuries. That is largely why interest rates are low historically. Lots of people are willing to accept a low rate for the low credit-risk of US debt. The Chinese gov’t holds US debt because it is a desirable asset, not because they want to control the US gov’t.

    Discussions of foreign ownership of treasuries often veer into conspiracy theory territory. Two thirds of US debt is held by organizations in the US, or by parts of US Federal and state gov’ts. The rest is owned by foreigners who had to place competitive bids to get them, and were they offered would be bought again by others, foreign or domestic.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  62. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    NATO is basically an American protection racket, like the mafia, and Trump’s recent arm twisting about European countries spending more on defense means more money to US defense contractors.

    The Deep State hates Trump for the same reason that a mafia family hates a capo or boss who’s too loud, flashy, self-aggrandizing, and explicit in running the syndicate. Such a boss calls too much attention to the racket and also causes both the operators and victims of the racket to lose face. A successful protection racket is not based simply on fear and intimidation, but also on respect and “face” – there is a mutual, implicit agreement between both parties that the boss will be respected, not just feared, and that the “protected” will also be accorded respect, and not publicly shaken down. The Deep State fears that Trump is breaking this tacit agreement and causing the Europeans to lose face, which may lead to the Europeans breaking up or disrupting the protection racket altogether.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
  63. Lowe says:
    @Hodag

    This is a great point. The Chinese gov’t must make some effort to protect the savings of the Chinese people, at home and abroad.

  64. Jack D says:
    @27 year old

    I think (hope) if they manage to sober up some of them will realize that giving a lot of concessions to us and embracing Trumpism is a lot better than getting steamrolled by Chinese.

    Don’t hold your breath. People are very wedded to their world views and don’t want to hear bad news because bad news means that you would have to do something risky and radical and no one really wants to do that. There were many stories during the Holocaust where people would somehow escape from an extermination camp and get back to town and explain to everyone what was happening to the people getting on the transport trains and people would simply not believe them because it was too big and too awful to contemplate.
    The Polish resistance sent someone to the US to tell the US government about the Holocaust and the same thing happened:

    In July 1943, on the behalf of the President, Frankfurter interviewed Jan Karski, a member of the Polish resistance who had been smuggled into the Warsaw ghetto and a camp near the Belzec death camp in 1942, in order to report back on what is now known as the Holocaust. Frankfurter greeted Karski’s report with skepticism, later explaining: “I did not say that he was lying, I said that I could not believe him. There is a difference.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felix_Frankfurter

    Frankfurter doesn’t explain the difference but it is this – if he really believed Karski then he could not just continue his comfortable life and continue to have cocktails with his friend Roosevelt. At a minimum, he would be morally required to pester him and destroy their friendship and at a maximum he would have been required to set himself on fire on the steps of the Supreme Court in order to draw the world’s attention to the unspeakable tragedy that was unfolding. If OTOH, he chose NOT to believe Karski then he could continue his pleasant life, so he did.

    Likewise, I think that the Chinese are planning to one day (it could be decades from now), when they think the US is weak enough and they no longer need US trade, to mount a Pearl Harbor type operation where they will conquer the entire Pacific in one swift stroke – retake Taiwan and restore all other Asian countries to their rightful status as tribute states of China and completely evict the US from the Pacific, reorient Japan and S. Korea toward Beijing, etc. Basically the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, but this time with China at the helm. This is why they are building all those artificial islands and aircraft carriers and so on – it’s not just for fun. But I can’t believe this because this would require me not to sell them the rope that they will use to hang us – I wouldn’t be able to buy all those cheap gadgets anymore.

  65. The ruling class of the GOP and the ruling class of the Democrat Party has been in bed with the Chinese Communist Party for decades. The WASP/JEW ruling class of the American Empire has colluded with the Chinese Communist Party to use cheap Chinese labor to make big profits. Disgusting scumbags like Mitch McConnell are financially benefiting from making shady deals with the Chinese Communist Party.

    Trump had the guts, balls and brains to call the scumbag ruling class rats out on their collusion and collaboration with the Chinese Communist Party.

    Horrible rats in the GOP brought China into the World Trade Organization and they granted China Most Favored Nation trade status.

    Teddy Cruz wanted to pass the sovereignty-sapping Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal scam. That TPP deal would have flooded more foreigners into the United States.

    Teddy Cruz wrote an op-ed in Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal with Paul Ryan that called for the US Congress to grant then-president Obama Trade Promotion Authority to speed up the process of finalizing the sovereignty-sapping TPP trade deal scam. Teddy Cruz knew damn well that China was going to be allowed to slither into TPP just like China slithered into the WTO.

    Trump should place a 95 percent Prohibitive Tariff on all goods coming out of China. I don’t give a fig if the goods were made by transnational corporations or Chinese Communist factories.

    Make your phucking engines in the United States, Cummins, or see a big fat phucking 95 percent tariff slapped on those bastards.

    Tariffs are beautiful, but Trumpy must make them prohibitive.

    If a 95 percent tariff rate isn’t prohibitive enough, keep raising that bastard until it is.

    Trump Must Kill The World Trade Organization.

    Remember The Dolphin That Stopped The Butcher Of The Balkans Albright — I Do! Kill The WTO Now!

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  66. tyrone says:
    @Anon

    Boomer work ethic, I hope you’re learning something.

  67. @Bardon Kaldian

    Trump does many/some of these things sub-consciously, without any grand plan.

    What arguments support this conclusion/analysis? Trump appears to have spent his lifetime planning and executing major projects. His autobiography is essentially him gloating about his prowess in this regard.

    I don’t think the dude is playing 4D chess, but he’s certainly not wandering from success to success at random.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @Bardon Kaldian
  68. Lot says:
    @Hodag

    This guy gets it, very good comment.

    • LOL: eah
  69. neutral says:
    @27 year old

    Can you name a single thing that the USA has been good for white people in the last 70 years? Well neither can I, the opposite in fact applies, no other state in ALL of history has been as damaging to the white people than the USA. China on the other hand, what is the problem, they want to sell cheap goods and push no ideology to the rest of the world, my support is for China, the faster the USA is finished the better for me and almost everyone else.

    • Replies: @Anonym
  70. Anon[546] • Disclaimer says:

    US has this control over China because it made the Chinese so dependent on the US economy. China’s trade with US both made and unmade China.

  71. Anoni says:
    @Hodag

    Trump realized a long time ago that if you owe the bank a tremendous amount of money, the bank has a problem, not you. That goes quadruple for us sovereign debt. We can do whatever we want with an asset that is a big portion of China’s overall wealth.

  72. BenKenobi says:
    @Daniel Williams

    I would follow the God-Emperor into Hell and gladly remain in the garrison he leaves behind.

  73. Anon[546] • Disclaimer says:
    @Busby

    US Treasuries would have to be sold on the open market. How big a discount would the Chinese be willing to accept to “make a point”?

    They can’t sell it but maybe they should stop buying it.

  74. L Woods says:
    @27 year old

    The idea behind the liberal institutions (supposedly) is that while they extended a relatively generous bargain to weaker countries up front (in the immediate post-war era, they were in little position to refuse), their power would not increase over time at a rate commensurate to the recovery of their material position. What appears to be happening is that these institutions have been under revisionist strain — Western elites in turn have been quick to cannibalize their own countries/populations to retain the rest of the world’s buy-in for their own narrow gain. Of course, the rest of the world only attained such an improved material position due to the acquisitive myopia of the liberal investor class (but I digress).

    In any case, black pilled as I am, don’t much give a damn.

  75. Romanian says: • Website

    it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong…

    Like what the Chinese have been doing. Figures they would be able to see the similarities.

    In my line of work, I have a lot of contact with Chinese specialists, usually on European or security issues. It always struck me as interesting how morose they were regarding Trump when I asked them – they never fell into the trap of dismissing him as a vulgarian and laughing their worries away like the Western Euros.

  76. @Boethiuss

    And Trump doesn’t have enough personal connections to put reliable people in place of those who are there now.

    He has all the competent hyper loyal supporters he needs, just start handing out jobs to blog commenters and frog Twitter.

    • Replies: @Tyrion 2
    , @L Woods
    , @Boethiuss
  77. Anon[347] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    China has spent millenia as a poor country. There’s an old rule in economics that you can tell which countries have an inherent tendency towards accumulating wealth and which don’t by their economic histories. China, without the US as a market, would still be a poor country. The average Chinese person went from living as a poor person under a repressive Imperial government under the Emperors to living as a poor person under a repressive communist government under Mao.

    The government has loosened up its controls a bit, but China’s inherent flaws are still there to see. The country is filled with corruption, shoddy workmanship, get rich-quick types at any cost, and a government which though is not as fanatically controlling as Mao or the Emperors, is still pretty dogmatic and controlling. There has never been a truly free people in China under a laissez-faire government that would allow the accumulation of individual wealth.

    The people who wield repressive power in China are incapable of giving it up. This will always hamper the development of capitalism. China has never had at any point government officials without a high level of corruption. This also retards capitalism. If the Trump tariffs are implemented, China’s robber barons will have a much smaller income, and the middle class will slide back down into the lower class. China, left to itself, is ‘meant’ to be a poor country. It’s not Japan, where they prize high-quality workmanship and keep corruption from getting too out of hand. China is more of a peasant country than Japan ever was. There are too many people in China with low-quality genes to make the country something special.

    People appear not to have noticed the timing, but Xi Jinping arranged to have himself voted a virtual dictator right after Trump started pushing tariffs against China. This was not an accident. Xi went for the power-grab, and he’s arranged for the military build up because he knows what’s going to happen to him when China starts the great slide back down the economic hill and he’s on top. His head is going to roll, and he’s trying to arrange things so he can’t be replaced or challenged. Xi understands fully how dependent his country is on the US.

  78. Tyrion 2 says: • Website
    @27 year old

    Have you seen the latest Who Is America episode?

    The problem is, whatever their beliefs, are these people more Jason Spencer (dumb dumb dumb) or Dick Cheney (spookily intelligent and sobre).

    The problem is that he cannot take a Spencer, no matter the ideology. The bloke is outrageously thick. So he often ends up relying on Cheney types, who are rare, and ones who are ideologically sympathetic are even rarer.

    Sort of on the other hand, I’d go work for him for free.

    • Replies: @snorlax
  79. @Jack D

    Good comment, but someone (not me) will be along soon to explain that none of that ever happened etc.

  80. anon[389] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hodag

    I thought a major reason for China continuing to hold USD was to keep the their currency undervalued– make their exports more competitive (cheaper).

  81. @Steve Sailer

    For many years I read GM spent more money on healthcare than on steel.
    Is that still the case, or was this restructured with GM’s bankruptcy and/or the post 2001 bailout?

  82. Not Raul says:
    @Steve Sailer

    I’ve heard that people over 40 have a hard time getting jobs in tech in the Silicon Valley-San Francisco Axis unless they are in management.

  83. @Jack D

    Likewise, I think that the Chinese are planning to one day (it could be decades from now), when they think the US is weak enough and they no longer need US trade, to mount a Pearl Harbor type operation where they will conquer the entire Pacific in one swift stroke – retake Taiwan and restore all other Asian countries to their rightful status as tribute states of China and completely evict the US from the Pacific, reorient Japan and S. Korea toward Beijing, etc.

    Basically the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, but this time with China at the helm. This is why they are building all those artificial islands and aircraft carriers and so on – it’s not just for fun. But I can’t believe this because this would require me not to sell them the rope that they will use to hang us – I wouldn’t be able to buy all those cheap gadgets anymore.

    The American Empire has nuclear weapons and the Japanese are a turn of the screw away from having nuclear weapons.

    The Chinese could perhaps indicate that they are willing to absorb a few dozen nuclear weapon detonations inside China in order to gain total control of certain areas. Nobody will believe them.

    What will happen soon is a mass expulsion of Chinese interlopers from the United States, Australia and Canada. The Anglo-Saxon and European Christian nations will soon rid themselves of their treasonous ruling classes. It has been the ruling classes of the Anglo-Saxon and European-Christian nations that has pushed for China to export all the cheap labor goods and for the mass importation of Chinese interloper invaders into various White nations.

    Even the disgusting cartel nation whores in Australia are starting to make some polite mention of the fact that the Chinese are taking the joint over. The new patriotic Australian ruling class that is coming will be able to keep the Chinese at bay when they get a nuclear deterrent. Australia must get a nuclear deterrent.

    The American Empire can make deals with the Chinese to isolate Africa and the American Empire can make sure that the Chinese who are expelled from White nations can safely go back to China and stay there.

    NUKES WILL REDUCE THE FRISKINESS OF CHINA

    • Replies: @Jack D
  84. snorlax says:
    @Tyrion 2

    It’s “sober” in British English too.

    Sort of on the other hand, I’d go work for him for free.

    You might think differently once you learn how high the rents are in D.C. …

    • Replies: @Tyrion 2
  85. Trump wants to prosper as a player in a multi polar world. Terminally corrupt Imperial Washington wants to perish attempting to rule the earth by force of arms. I know which side I’m on. Which do you suppose is the preference of Xi and Putin?

    Trump is indeed a traitor to Imperial Washington. So am I. That’s why I voted for him.

  86. Bill P says:

    If Trump were Chinese but in every other aspect the same man, he would be viewed as a sort of demigod, commanding incredible respect and imitation. He would probably have his photo set up in household shrines where families would leave little offerings in the hopes that he would grant them prosperity and virile sons.

    Because of this, I’m sure Xi Jinping takes him pretty seriously.

    If Trump can renegotiate the Euro-American alliance in a way that benefits both sides of the Atlantic he will have a very strong position from which to deal with China. And China will definitely need to be dealt with, because the Chinese will loot the world if given a chance. Just ask their neighbors. North Korea’s nukes, for example, provide a far more credible deterrent to Beijing than the US, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if we let them keep a few, with only limited range ballistic missiles, of course, for just that purpose. We Americans have been believed all along that the North Koreans regard the Chinese as close allies in the struggle against US hegemony, but that’s more charade than reality. In truth, Koreans, like Vietnamese, Japanese, Mongols and other neighbors of China, have a great, historically justified anxiety about China — an anxiety that we can and must use to counter Chinese rapacity and arrogance.

    Kissinger’s idea to seek rapprochement with Russia to counter China is another worthwhile strategy. The Russians obviously feel nervous about resurgent China. The most popular recent film in Russia, Kolovrat, was a kind of reverse version of Eisenstein’s Aleksander Nevsky, wherein the true threat to Russia comes from eastern hordes (rather than Teutonic Knights). This is not a coincidence.

    The point isn’t to humiliate and lay waste to China, nor should it be. The Chinese have an enormous job in front of them in cleaning up their environment, raising their peasantry out of poverty and squalor and developing a society that respects the rule of law. So far, their relationship with American elites has been more exploitative of both Chinese and American human and natural resources than it has been helpful in that regard. In many instances, such as environmental degradation, anti-social surveillance technology, and economic and demographic displacement, it has been disastrous.

    We need to put a choke collar on American elites who are bad offenders, and we need to start dealing a lot more firmly with China’s government and its agents. No more letting universities inflate their budgets with Chinese students who displace Americans, steal our tech and set up Communist Party cells in US taxpayer funded institutions. No more wholesale replacement of American manufactured products with cheap imported garbage. No more handouts of US IP to every joint venture partner in China, and no more allowing the Chinese to use residential property in the US as a 401k for the Chinese bourgeoisie.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  87. El Dato says:
    @Hodag

    “China” holds US government debt because Chinese people hold the debt.

    Evidence?

    I don’t believe that many Chinese people hold T-Bills. Definitely not directly. Maybe there are pension schemes that have bought T-Bills off Chinese banks and hope they can get something valuable out of it, but call those “hard assets” is a new form of delusion.

    How will the richest Chinese react if their retirements are crashed by the CCP?

    More delusion. “Richest Chinese” who hope for Uncle Sam to pay their pension? LOLNO.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  88. snorlax says:
    @Jack D

    I agree that China is planning for an aggressive war vs. the US and/or its proxies in Asia. To that end they are semi-covertly investing heavily in land, sea and space-based anti-missile systems.

    However, the military option seems to be Plan B. Plan A is using a mix of economic pressure, military threats, propaganda and covert subversion to influence the surrounding countries in an anti-US and pro-China direction. They are already achieving considerable success in the Philippines and South Korea, and to a lesser extent in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and even Australia. If present trends hold, Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan are likely to follow.

    One interesting implication for US strategy is that when or if China brings South Korea into its camp, they will no longer have any use for the North Korean regime. I hope and expect that Pompeo is emphasizing this point in his negotiations with them.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  89. @Bill P

    This is a pretty amusing fantasy of “let’s setup an entire world against China.” And then, history will end and liberal democracy and freedom will triumph everywhere!

    Reality will disappoint you.

  90. @Anonymous

    Hark! I hear the multi-dimensional chess analogies approaching even as we speak…

    I think it’ll be more like 4-D Twister.

  91. MEFOBILLS says:
    @Hodag

    China buys tbill debt as part of its mercantile strategy. Getting rid of TBills, will push the Yuan/Dollar rate the wrong way (from China’s standpoint.)

    Remember this relation: TBill price high, Dollar to Yuan exchange rate high, Interest Rates Low.

    When China wins dollars in mercantilist imbalanced trade, they can either buy from U.S. mainstreet or buy debt from wall street.

    When they buy dollar debt instruments, they put future american’s in hock, and simultaneously hold dollar prices high, so American’s buy more Chinese crap.

    The wall street/china gambit is to lure American industry and know how to China, to thus grab wage arbitrage for wall street.

    China and finance capitalism is in bed together, along with Atlantacism. The West Coast of China accepts raw materials as inputs (by ship) and exports finished goods.

    China then earns the increment of production, and basically pays off wall street in the form of arbitrage. Your 401K goes up and you are a hero, but then you lose your job and you are a zero.

    By doing so, China has grabbed the intellectual property and patrimony of America, allowing rapid growth and acquisition of whole industries.

    Those of you who went to skool and learned economics, you now have learned incompetence. Nothing in ne0-liberal economic orthodoxy can explain away the China Wall Street Gambit.

    It cannot happen in neo-liberal universe, so it is off their cognitive map. Yet here it is.

    • Replies: @James Forrestal
    , @Anonym
  92. @snorlax

    Plan A is using a mix of economic pressure, military threats, propaganda and covert subversion…

    Don’t leave out interference in elections. As Mao showed, there’s nothing the Russians can do that the Chinese can’t. Except write good music.

    You yourself cracked a joke about Chinese flipping Canada’s election. Everyone’s distracted with Russia; what are the Chinese getting away with here?

  93. Laurel says:

    There is some truth to this: it’s a truism of geopolitics that a post-war settlement freezes in place the power relations of the players right after the war, and over time that settlement fits the situation less and less well, until it is replacement with a new settlement, usually (but not always) after another big war.

    An example of a new settlement that worked really well was Metternich’s Concert of Europe, which basically glued Europe back together after the Napoleonic Wars and balanced all the players off against each other very effectively. Henry Kissinger was a big student of Metternich (I think he wrote his PhD thesis on him) and basically tried to do a Metternich-like rebalancing of the Cold War World by fighting the Russian influence in Vietnam and opening relations with Red China. Aside from the Vietnam thing, this worked pretty well. Of course, the Cold War has been over for a long time, China is a major player now, and technological progress is so fast and bewildering that nobody know who would really come out on top if there was another great power war.

    So what Trump is doing, under this theory, is trying to rebuild the order of the world again, getting rid of the Cold War alliances and building new bilateral ties. I don’t see how this can work in practice, and it seems likely to end up with the U.S. ceding influence in the Pacific and in East Asia to China more or less peacefully. Maybe there is a huge strategic opportunity here I’m not seeing.

  94. @The Anti-Gnostic

    Cork, Ireland supposedly has among the world’s highest GDPs per capita, but that’s because that’s where Apple stashes its European profits for Evado Tax reasons.

    • Replies: @Anon87
  95. @candid_observer

    I tend to agree with you, but only if others pick up the torch from Trump and carry on. So far, I see no evidence of anyone even trying to do this. I really thought that by now there would be some US Representatives at least trying to copy Trump’s style (if not his actual methods which seem instinctual and thus hard to copy well)

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  96. Jack D says:
    @Charles Pewitt

    Thank God that the Chinese don’t have nuclear weapons that they could use to retaliate against us if we were to nuke them. Oh wait, they do? Ruh- oh!

  97. Tyrion 2 says: • Website
    @snorlax

    It’s “sober” in British English too.

    Embarrassing. I do speak French so I’ll pretend that is where my mistake came from.

    You might think differently once you learn how high the rents are in D.C. …

    I’ll live in one of the high crime areas. Also Central London rents aren’t exactly cheap.

    • Replies: @snorlax
  98. @dearieme

    Speaking of someone that would be worse had Hillary won…

    There’s a current left-wing trope that the Russians funneled money to Trump through the NRA. Had Hillary been elected and her minions Comey, Clapper, Lynch, and Brennan still in place, you can bet that this notion would be phonied up into a major scandal in an effort to destroy the NRA, which was one of Hillary’s top priorities.

  99. L Woods says:
    @27 year old

    Take it from someone who banked far too long on Fundamental Change to rescue him from an empty, bitterly disappointing life: it’s never going to happen.

  100. Pat Boyle says:
    @Anonymous

    Like I always say – all life’s truths are revealed in Italian Opera.

    Ezio in the opera Attila, refers to Rome as a vile cadaver. He begs Attila o spare Rome for him and he can have the rest of the world. Similarly Trump see America has a former great nation where people did things for the good of America, but which has ben killed or wounded by the greedy exploiters for their own personal power and profit. It’s hard not to see the Clinton’s that way.

    The exploiters have extracted personal wealth and position as America has grown enfeebled. The Web is filled with analogies of the fall of Rome and the recent state of America. Trump is of course trying to reverse all that.

    Ezio is Flavius Aetius – “Last of the Romans”. He, in real life defeated Attila but was murdered by Valentinian. Trump should take precautions about angry Democrats who have been denied a share of the spoils that come when you subvert your country.

  101. @The Anti-Gnostic

    I’ve long wondered if the Irish weren’t duped into going mad and blowing up their economy during the Celtic Tiger by getting high on the fumes of the GDP table. It gave them the delusion that they were a lot richer than they were, so they all started spending up large, buying each other’s houses and getting drunker than usual. They certainly weren’t shy of bragging about how rich they were and how much software they were exporting.

  102. BB753 says:
    @Anonym

    Just a comment, military expenditure does not equal to military superiority. I bet half of those gazillions spent on military trinkets don’t work, like the dismal F35.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-f-35-14-trillion-dollar-national-disaster-19985

    • Replies: @Anonym
  103. @AndrewR

    In US, most whites don’t mix well with others-their progeny, with some exceptions, goes to the other side. Also, SJWism is, although powerful, yet another temporary insanity.

    What will happen? Of course, I don’t know. Perhaps, WASPs will return to their ancient passions….

  104. Coag says:
    @Anon

    If the Trump tariffs are implemented, China’s robber barons will have a much smaller income, and the middle class will slide back down into the lower class. China, left to itself, is ‘meant’ to be a poor country. It’s not Japan, where they prize high-quality workmanship and keep corruption from getting too out of hand. China is more of a peasant country than Japan ever was. There are too many people in China with low-quality genes to make the country something special.

    Singapore, which was settled by the dregs of the Chinese gene pool, is quite rich and successful. Indeed that is the short version of Lee Kwan Yew’s pep talk to Deng Xiaoping about Chinese capitalism: Singapore was settled by abjectly poor and ignorant Han peasants yet is rich today, so there’s no reason mainland China, where the educated mandarin classes remained behind, can’t be. China definitely has the right stuff.

    You are correct that China’s rise has been dependent on various American idiosyncrasies (such as the delusion that unilateral tariff reduction is a Wonderful Idea). But likewise South Korea’s rise and Japan’s postwar resurrection have also happened at America’s convenience, and at the expense of the American working class.

    The poster you’re replying to warned exactly against the complacency that you’re wedded to. The same allegations against Chinese industrial workmanship were made against Japanese and South Korean workmanship in the 60s-70s and 80s-90s, respectively. Yet both have become world-beating technological powerhouses and the bane of the American worker. Furthermore if China can extend its hegemony in Africa it can even the field a little bit against America’s veritable God-endowed wealth of natural resources. Trump’s measures are in the right direction but complacency as to its permanence in the face of militant and organized internal Treason by the globalist party, or for you to assume China will be conveniently genetically deprecated and geopolitically inert, is definitely the kind of attitude that can nip the Trumpian renaissance in the bud.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
  105. @Jack D

    Thank God that the Chinese don’t have nuclear weapons that they could use to retaliate against us if we were to nuke them. Oh wait, they do? Ruh- oh!

    Of course the Chinese Communist Party has nuclear weapons, but if they were to threaten the Anglo-Celtic Australians or attempt any nonsense on Alaska or Hawaii or anywhere else in our area, then they would be risking nuclear war. The Chinese Communist Party wants to survive, they won’t risk a nuclear war.

    General Tso or some Communist Chinese creature already made menacing remarks about Los Angeles. That was a while back.

    It is imperative that Japan and Australia acquire a nuclear deterrent in order to protect themselves. The American Empire is going to save our umbrella for OUR rainy days.

  106. Anon87 says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Lots of major companies are stashing money in Ireland. The Dublin airport now has its own pre-customs clearance just for the US (presumably to accomodate the army of US bankers and tech workers shuttling through).

  107. @Daniel Williams

    It’s more complicated. He is an adept on adaptation; also, he has detected what most core Americans want (their country to remain theirs; down with SJWsm & other cancers; white working class kids to have future & security; repulse ethnic/racial invasions,…). He is an American nationalist, but this historically means he’s a diluted modern white nationalist, whether he wants to acknowledge this or not, and whether he understands it all. It is not just luck & he fights his battles in that direction (SCOTUS, the Wall, China trade war,..).

    He doesn’t now history; he has not some grand strategy; he is erratic in his behavior. Just, on most matters that matter, he has almost viscerally absorbed animosity toward forced anti- white ideologies & tries to push in the contrary direction, something which he couldn’t have done without most of historical Americans’- apart from Liberal zombies- clear support.

  108. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Anonym

    Most of our leverage comes from having the world’s largest consumer market.

    Our military spending is less impressive than it looks. A lot of it is personnel costs: I doubt the Russian or Chinese militaries employ as many many teachers or social workers as our department of defense does. We do lap the world in giant aircraft carriers, but it’s not clear how well those would survive attacks from the latest hypersonic missiles. That said, I don’t think China wants to fight a war against us now, or anyone else for that matter. The biggest risk on that score would be if China’s economy sunk into recession and its government was tempted to stir something up with Taiwan to distract from it.

    • Replies: @Anonym
  109. Trump could do something drastic like announcing a manned Mars mission in 25 years. We have stagnated for half-century and our space propulsion technology hasn’t advanced much. By pushing this as a technology driver, we could get massive funding (in 1962 Kennedy’s Moon speech it is mentioned $5 billion or $40 billion in today’s money).

    With that kind of money, we could develop a working aerospike engine that could give us $1,000/ lb. one-stage to orbit.

    The USA could finally develop and launch the von Braun rotating space station. Maybe the USA could finally get to where Kubrick had us in 2001 but by 2050.

  110. LondonBob says:
    @Lowe

    Russia sold off a substantial amount of US debt and pushed up US interest rates noticeably with yields breaking 3%. Given US debt and deficits figures the US is on thin ice.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Escher
    , @Lowe
  111. GLT says:
    @Jack D

    Do you live in Taiwan or something? Otherwise I don’t understand the noose metaphor.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  112. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Hodag

    China holds US debt mainly because it has a giant trade surplus with the us. That means we buy more goods & services (probably almost all goods, in our case) from China than they buy from us. They have to put those excess dollars somewhere, and ultimately, they have to be spent here. So they get spent on financial assets (and, to a lesser extent, real estate). Of those financial assets, Treasuries are the most liquid and safest.

  113. snorlax says:
    @Tyrion 2

    Désolé d’être pédant. (I try to limit myself to cases where it’s helpful, as opposed to pointing out fat-finger typos).

    I’ll live in one of the high crime areas.

    Er, that would not be a good idea. You’re getting there, but the UK still does not have any “high crime areas” like our high crime areas. The worst of the Parisian banlieues might be comparable (probably still not). Suffice it to say a high crime area of D.C. is extremely hazardous to your health, and in order to avoid living in such an area, no commute is too long.

    Also Central London rents aren’t exactly cheap.

    Sure, but I assume you aren’t working for free! And if you worked for Trump, you’d be forever a raaaacist, unable to obtain any future employment outside of US conservative politics.

    • Replies: @Tyrion 2
  114. LondonBob says:
    @El Dato

    The Chinese government holds them as Forex reserves, not private citizens.

  115. Jack D says:
    @Anon

    It depends what you mean by “poor” – yes the average peasant lived at near starvation levels (and sometimes below). But the riches of the Forbidden City are tremendous (or were – most of them are in Taiwan). China was the “Central Kingdom” – the hub that was at the center of the wheel of all of Asia, the way Rome was in the West. To a very large extent, all of the silver that was pulled out of the Americas by the Spanish ended up in China (because they had trade goods that Europe wanted and would only accept payment in silver (until the British forced them to take opium – a special place in hell for doing that).

    China had a bad couple of centuries when the West was having a good couple. But that’s over now. Regarding laissez-faire, in some ways China is a better country for business now than the US. If I want to buy a bottle of booze in PA I have to go to a state liquor store but in Beijing you can get baijiu at every corner grocery store. If I own a factory here the government is going to hassle me with all sorts of affirmative action crap and is my factory site going to disturb the snail habitat and stuff like that but in China they won’t – at least if you know whom to bribe.

    I agree that the US kick started their economy but it is humming along on its own steam now (or at least in transition to doing so). As I said before, the Chinese have a long game. They are not going to make their move this year and maybe not in 10 years. But they are testing our strength and preparing every day for the moment when they think they can make their move and get away with it and when they press the go button, we won’t know what hit us. As others have said, if they can accomplish their goals peacefully they will – they know that war has a high price. But the main thing for them is to restore what they see as their rightful historic place as the sole superpower of Asia and they are not going to rest until they are.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob, ic1000
  116. Svigor says:
    @Duke of Qin

    Unfortunately Steve, your analysis misses out on one very key detail.

    The current international order and existing institutions were already created by the US on terms favourable to Washington. In fact, so favourable that no one else had a say and the US essentially wrote the rules carte blanche by men much wiser that than the creatures dwelling in Washington today after ww2 when the US accounted for 50% of the world’s economy. The existing international system serves to buttress American power, tearing it down to renegotiate new norms is a good idea if you are a revisionist power whose current strength is no longer reflected in the system. Not such a great idea to renegotiate if you are substantially weaker than when the norms were originally created.

    The key word here being, “Washington.” Nobody else gives a fuck about all that, in fact we want to tear it all down and replace it with a system favorable to the American working and middle classes.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  117. Svigor says:
    @Jack D

    “I did not say that he was lying, I said that I could not believe him. There is a difference.”

    ‘Course now they throw you in jail for saying either…

  118. @Anon

    There has never been a truly free people in China under a laissez-faire government that would allow the accumulation of individual wealth

    Well, there were Hong Kong and Macau, but they weren’t run by Chinese. Hell, Hong Kong wasn’t run by anybody, which explains its success. As long as the Chinese didn’t gamble or eat dog, they lived under a policy of benign neglect.

    Singapore and Taiwan have been checkerboards of freedom and oppression, but accumulating wealth has been possible for decades.

    All of these places can be considered “in China”, ie, within the Chinese oecumene, though not in the PRC.

  119. @Wally

    Next time, please post the content of the NY Post article. I got approximately one billion pop-ups when I clicked that link.

  120. slumber_j says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Well, I like your grammatical failure to include certain articles there.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  121. slumber_j says:
    @Jack Hanson

    We were beaten to it by anonymous and not so anonymous niche blog commenters insisting they are smarter and more competent than a billionaire president who put to bed the two leading political dynasties in his first serious go round.

    Not only that, but he beat both of the only two real political parties backed by pretty much all the news media. What an idiot!!

  122. @dearieme

    Is there anything – anything – that would currently be better under a Madame Clinton administration?

    Michael Levin of CUNY once said that feminism is the first philosophy that is wrong every single time.

    This is similar. On every issue, and by every personal standard, Hillary is worse than the Donald. How could he lose?

  123. RW says:

    The Chinese are a little off on this one. Trump is not a nuanced enough thinker to engage in the mental gymnastics necessary for convoluted left-wing ideological double think. He lacks enough focus to juggle multiple factors in his working memory. The result is an ability to strategize the obvious, mostly one step at a time.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Reg Cæsar
  124. @Jack D

    It depends what you mean by “poor” – yes the average peasant lived at near starvation levels (and sometimes below).

    I think that’s true of most of the world until the 20th century advent of the Green Revolution ushered in by (1) the Haber Process, which revolutionized fertilizer production, and (2) the invention of effective chemical pesticides. The Irish Potato Famine wasn’t some kind of anomaly – similar famines had occurred in the British Isles in prior centuries at periodic intervals.

  125. @Peter Akuleyev

    “As someone who lives outside the US, I have a hard time imagining how the world order could be made even more favorable to the Washington than it already is.”

    Washington, yes. Average Americans? No.

  126. notanon says:
    @Duke of Qin

    The current international order and existing institutions were already created by the US on terms favourable to Washington.

    favorable to the banking mafia who own Washington – and who are bleeding the USA to death prior to moving to Hong Kong

    I honestly don’t understand why so many Americans are so enamoured with trump

    Main St. vs Wall St.

  127. notanon says:
    @Jason Liu

    The western elite has shown that it will never tolerate any power that isn’t a liberal democracy.

    not true – they don’t say a word about China (cos they make so much money from the industries they offshored there) but say a lot about Russia

    they use liberalism as an excuse to attack countries they want to attack for other reasons e.g. petrodollar, threat to Israel etc cos they know the public can be riled up over it but they don’t care at all

    Saudi Arabia is the best example of this.

    • Replies: @Samuel Skinner
    , @Anonymous
  128. @Samuel Skinner

    >Being a Chinese subject would be better then being a white subject of America’s ruling class.

    Move to China right now then lmao

    • Replies: @Samuel Skinner
  129. @Jack D

    To a very large extent, all of the silver that was pulled out of the Americas by the Spanish ended up in China (because they had trade goods that Europe wanted and would only accept payment in silver (until the British forced them to take opium – a special place in hell for doing that).

    Individual Chinese weren’t forced to take opium. Chinese production of (the domestic and inferior variant of) opium continued. It was imports that were banned. Note that opium was banned nowhere else in the world at the time of the Chinese ban on imports. Emigre Chinese communities seemed to prosper despite being major consumers of opium. It wasn’t until the 20th century that opium consumption was prohibited in the West except by prescription. Narcotic drugs weren’t just used by the West’s lumpenproletariat either – the elites were enthusiastic users of what was then perfectly legal, 50 years after the first Anglo-Chinese War.

    The 5 page UNODC article (linked below) about the history of opium in China claims that the Chinese banned domestic opium production until defeats in the Anglo-Chinese Wars forced open the Chinese market. But this being a UN-produced document, I expect the Chinese had veto power over its content. I’ve read other, less politically-correct, essays indicating that domestic Chinese opium production never paused, before, during or after what were essentially market access wars.

    https://www.npr.org/2011/07/22/138610592/a-tale-of-two-addicts-freud-halsted-and-cocaine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China

    https://www.unodc.org/documents/wdr/WDR_2008/WDR2008_100years_drug_control_origins.pdf

    • Replies: @Jack D
  130. @Anon

    Jees Steve, it’s 6:20 a.m. on the east coast, are you on a meth bender?

    iSteve is the Neal Cassady of Noticing.

  131. Hodag says:
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    We all know the stereotypes of Irish money lenders…

  132. notanon says:
    @27 year old

    They have been running the US as a bust out

    yes – for 30+ years the banking mafia and their media promoted neoliberal economics (offshoring, mass immigration, bank deregulation etc) as a good thing which has made the banking mafia very rich but has proved to be a disaster for everyone else – it’s certainly possible that some elements of the elite now realize the banking mafia betrayed everyone.

  133. @Anonymous

    One of the striking things of our age is the divergence in just “common sense” between the aging great power America, which continually promotes ludicrous and destructive nonsense–the blank slate, “diversity is out strength”, everyone is the same, blacks are sacred, men and women are the same, gay marriage, mentally ill boys belong in the girls locker room, “a nation of immigrants”, majorities much defer to minorities, borders are bad, free flow of goods, capital, people … –and the rising power China, which for all it’s problems doesn’t seem to believe any of that crap, believes in HBD and is working feverishly to ferret out the genes critical to high performance.

    Of course, competing nations have certainly had very different ideologies–especially religious. But having grown up in an America in competition with the Soviet Union which literally had to imprison it’s own people, it’s shocking to be in a situation where the rising competing power, however despotic is actually sane, but the establishment in control of my nation is nuts and destroying my children’s future. Shocking and depressing.

  134. @Thorfinnsson

    AGREED about the near-evisceration of American manufacturing.

    Trump correctly recognizes this is a bad deal, as did Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot a generation earlier.

    … along with a fellow with a D next to his name, from election-’92, named Paul Tsongas. (He’s died since, unfortunately).

  135. @Charles Pewitt

    I’ve got no argument in general, Mr. Pewitt, but why do you bring up the figure 95%? That makes it sound like 100% is some kind of limit? I’m not proposing any specific number here, but just saying that tariffs can be 10%, 150%, or 500%. I’m sure someone who is a money-man in any certain business would know approximately what number would have what result in terms of % decrease in goods imported.

  136. Anonym says:
    @neutral

    Can you name a single thing that the USA has been good for white people in the last 70 years? Well neither can I, the opposite in fact applies, no other state in ALL of history has been as damaging to the white people than the USA. China on the other hand, what is the problem, they want to sell cheap goods and push no ideology to the rest of the world, my support is for China, the faster the USA is finished the better for me and almost everyone else.

    Compared to Tibet or Formosa? As their dominion grows it is like other plants trying to grow under some forms of pine tree. (There could be a better example.) The same could be said of the British in the areas they conquered in the early days as well, but they are a large part of my DNA and the rest of that DNA is pretty close too.

  137. @Duke of Qin

    The current international order and existing institutions were already created by the US on terms favourable to Washington.

    So you’re telling us that massive trade deficits with China are favorable to Washington? In that case, Beijing should be happy to run the same massive trade deficits with the US, so I don’t quite see what the mandarins are complaining about.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  138. Jack D says:
    @AnotherDad

    Especially since the Chinese under Mao and the Red Guards were INSANE – they did stuff that would make the worst of today’s American SJW’s blush.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  139. @AndrewR

    First of all, the number of “white genes” in the gene pool will remain well over 65% for the rest of the century.

    The Brazil analogy is an obvious one because
    a) the US has a substantial black population (1/8–40 million people)
    and
    b) the largest effect of the immigration tsunami has been Latinizing the US.
    Put those together … you get Brazil. And it’s not at all unreasonable as a trend.

    Unless we go even more batshit crazy, the US will continue to be much better off than Brazil because
    a) We’ll be more unmixed white.
    b) We at least started with an Anglo-Saxon culture.
    c) Some of the immigration wave are various Asians who are reasonable capable as well.

    But, we are definitely going to be relatively–to the world and especially to what we could have been—dumber and poorer than we were and in a “Brazil-like” direction.

  140. @Jack D

    That’s only because the sane Americans are armed to the freaking teeth. The Cultural Revolutionaries in China didn’t have to worry about that. Our SJWs HAVE to mostly talk, unless they have the entire city, police and local legal system on their side, as in Charlottesville last year.

    Some of the stuff that the American SJWs talk about – could you even have expected that out of the mouths of the Red Guards in 1966, Jack? (I read about 10 books about it, but it’s been a while.)

  141. @Achmed E. Newman

    BTW, what is the black-pill, 27 y/o?

    “Red pill” vs. “blue pill” is (of course) a reference to The Matrix. The former represents the decision to escape the Matrix/ Plato’s cave and to face reality; the latter, to embrace the illusion, and avoid any real knowledge of reality.

    By extension, “white pill” has come to mean good news/ optimism, and “black pill” bad news/ pessimism.

  142. @MEFOBILLS

    Noice. Very well put.

    Those of you who went to skool and learned economics, you now have learned incompetence. Nothing in ne0-liberal economic orthodoxy can explain away the China Wall Street Gambit.

    For an economist to acknowledge that mercantilism can beat “free trade” in any situation is like any other social scientist acknowledging that race is a biological reality — rank heresy. You’d be right… but unemployed.

  143. @AndrewR

    First of all, the number of “white genes” in the gene pool will remain well over 65% for the rest of the century.

    Andrew, this is almost certainly false–optomistic.

    How “off” depends on what you label “white genes”. But right now–whites, and this just means white *moms*–are only 50% of America births. I happen to think this is “The Biological Century” and life extension advances are coming. But just as a reasonable estimate half of the children born today will be dead by the end of the century and the white quotient is continually being driven down by immigration.

    That gets us to “genes”. African Americans are by estimate 20-25% white. (Though i’d bet those samples themselves are skewed toward the “lighter and brighter” half of the population. The blacker sort of AA really has much much less interaction with whites and generates little interest unless they can play ball.) But let’s take it. That boosts the white quota by a max of 3%.

    Then Hispanics. The influx i see–working jobsites–is very heavily Indian. But i’ll grant it’s a mix. Let’s be very, very generous and say 60% white–Iberian DNA–now but falling. That picks up another–a generous estimate-15%.

    So by a reasonable, but generous, estimate of the current birth cohort, we’re at 68% white genes. And that is essentially the “dead man walking” people of the end of the century. Immigration and differential fertility will be lowering that next year and each and every following year. A reasonable expectation is we’re going to progressive move toward whatever the real white percentage is of the higher fertility “Hispanic” Americans (50%?), with the whites+blacks+Asians delivering a very similar number.

    And if we don’t recover some sort of sanity–rather than collapsing into the outright OpenBorders lunacy that our “elites” have starting speaking openly for this past few years–then Steve’s “the World’s Most Important Graph” (TWMIG), could flat out crush this number.

    • Agree: Travis
  144. Travis says:
    @Cloudbuster

    if China sold all their US debt it might result in higher borrowing costs for the United States…Also could potentially depress the value of bonds held by Americans

  145. @AndrewR

    How very naive
    I’ll just quote myself

    Brazil is a shithole, though it provides exciting employment for dirty cops and SWAT. Might be a thrilling career if I were younger

    Brazil’s aerospace industry depends on its German minority. Why do they need the rest of the favela dwelling country?

    Remember that all of their toys, their cars, guns, internet, and phones, come from the First World outside of their country. When the First World is gone, who will invent these things? A country modelled on Brazil will be shittier than ever. Their women aren’t even hot – lol don’t believe the hype

    • Replies: @AndrewR
  146. sayless says:
    @Lars Porsena

    One of the reasons Trump got my vote is that when he was talking about foreign policy he used the word “peace”.

  147. @RW

    Trump is seldom oblivious to the obvious.

  148. @Jack D

    Thank God that the Chinese don’t have nuclear weapons that they could use to retaliate against us if we were to nuke them. Oh wait, they do? Ruh- oh!

    How are Communists like Republicans?

    A: Both have had access to nuclear weapons for almost 70 years, and have never used them. Not a bad record. Let’s not forget, too, the dozen or so parties that have controlled the UK, France, South Africa, Israel, India, and Pakistan.

    According to the Federation of American Scientists, China has fewer nukes than does France.

    Sacrebleu!

  149. @RW

    The result is an ability to strategize the obvious, mostly one step at a time.

    This is called “instinct”.

  150. AndrewR says:
    @Difference Maker

    Let’s see your woman/women.

    I won’t hold my breath.

  151. @27 year old

    If the US goes further down the toilet, China is one of the fallbacks; I’m better of working here (because the pay is higher) first before things hit the fan.

  152. @notanon

    The Chinese aren’t white and arabs generally don’t get counted as white. Meanwhile the Russians are white. That is the reason they are treated differently.

  153. Boethiuss says:
    @27 year old

    He has all the competent hyper loyal supporters he needs, just start handing out jobs to blog commenters and frog Twitter.

    To be honest, I can’t tell if this is serious or a troll. But either way, the thing you’re talking about is unworkable.

    Blog commenters are frog Twitter are unknown personally to Mr Trump or the people hiring on his behalf. The aren’t necessarily politically reliable. They probably aren’t competent to do the jobs they would be hired for. And from Trump’s pov, they aren’t personally loyal to him as opposed to having similar ideological interests which may or may not be what Trump wants.

  154. Anonymous[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @notanon

    Pretty close to the mark, except they aren’t motivated by the petrodollar either.

  155. Anon[108] • Disclaimer says:

    “Dissolve the EU and the entire Eastern Europe returns to Russian protectorate. Who benefits from this? Not USA.”

    The problem is that the ambitious Germans have been trying to undermine NATO for years now and replace it with a German-run EU force; they are also encouraging European nations not to buy our F-35 and, instead, buy German weapons. They are also expanding their military as we speak while using rhetoric like “Europe must decide its own destiny” (translation: “Germany must run Europe”). In fact, there is a German diplomat over in Japan right now causing trouble for our alliances with that country – basically, proposing an alliance between Germany, Japan, and China to oppose the United States.

    The Germans see themselves as commanding all of Europe as a great power, and this is causing some push back by Trump. I think that is what the Chinese are seeing: Trump getting ahead of future trends by destroying present things.

  156. @Johann Ricke

    US trade deficits are the flip side to US financial and corporate power. America outsources low margin low wage production to countries outside in exchange for market access and huge markups. Apple sold 77 million iphones accounting for nearly $60 billion in revenue just in a single quarter. Accordingly because the iPhone is made in China, lots of countries are magically running an iPhone “deficit” with China. However, Chinese share of the profit margins on the phone are only around 2-3% while apple, and it’s US owners collecting 30-40% of the gross. I would be happy for China to outsource low margin production to the US if it meant we directly sold to US consumers at 40% profit margins. Say the entire iPhone production line is moved out of China. Net losses to China would be the about 2 billion in lost profit per quarter. Apple then stops selling iphones in China and also loses the app market. Net loss on the phones to the US alone with be about 4 billion per quarter. The app store for Apple is the money maker though. Apple’s China revenue from it’s app store was $34 billion in 2017 and their margins on software are enormous. Basically Apple’s profits alone in China are enough to balance pretty much the Chinese profits from the entire US trade deficit.

    Remember it isn’t Chinese companies or Chinese workers making the lions share of the money from from US imports. It is US companies and US capital.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    , @notanon
    , @Coag
  157. Boethiuss says:
    @Desiderius

    Quantity has a quality all its own. The follow-through types above all want to keep their jobs. They can see the Times election map as well as anyone.

    I’m not really getting this comment. It’s not about whether they want to keep their jobs. Most of them do probably, some of them don’t. It’s also really clear even, what they ought to do if their sole motivation was preservation of their job. Those things are ancillary.

    What’s important now, what differentiates Trump from other people, Republican or Democrat who might have his job instead, is that Trump doesn’t not have a store of personal or organizational loyalty where he can get reliable people into key jobs.

    Therefore, Trump’s idea of reorganizing the world order to be more favorable to America while we still have the chance is going to suffer from lack of follow through.

  158. Tyrion 2 says: • Website
    @snorlax

    I suppose those are the problems! I am pretty sure that I would be well placed to avoid them if not for year after year while still working for free! But I can easily see how the swamp has built a set of defences around itself.

    Dissident on social media = demonetised (you can appeal but it’ll take too long for each video) and shadow-banned.

    Dissident in government = they know who you are and they will remember.

    Dissident at Google = fired.

    We had something similar but less successful with Brexit. Current heads of institutions were all against it. Retired ones, even very recently retired ones, were all (able to) be for it.

    There’s some exaggeration in the paragraph above but the data is striking.

  159. anon[339] • Disclaimer says:

    US Treasury debt held by China is $1.2T

    http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

  160. Anonym says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    Most of our leverage comes from having the world’s largest consumer market.

    That and the petrodollar. Countries who joke about selling oil in something other than USD conveniently end up regime changed shortly after.

  161. @slumber_j

    Sorry, my native language is Russian. But the important thing is that Trump is a harebrained moron. He is chipping away at the foundations of American power. Hence the universal contempt he is getting from every corner of American government.

  162. @Dumbo

    ” A Muslim shooter killed a woman and a child and hurt other 13 people the other day in Toronto (using a handgun as assault weapons are harder to come by), but the event was barely commented anywhere and now practically disappeared from the news.”

    Link?

  163. Anon[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @LondonBob

    Could the US selectively default on foreign debt?

    • Replies: @Lowe
  164. Anonym says:
    @BB753

    True, but it’s US military secrets going to China on flash drives not the reverse, which gives an indication. I was considering infographics which included carriers but it’s an exercise to the reader.

  165. Anonym says:
    @MEFOBILLS

    Nice post. The West Coast of China is pretty rocky AFAIK though, especially at sea level.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  166. @Duke of Qin

    US trade deficits are the flip side to US financial and corporate power. America outsources low margin low wage production to countries outside in exchange for market access and huge markups.

    In which case the Chinese should be thrilled to completely deny market access to US products and put an end to those razor-thin (to Chinese companies) margins. This should give plenty of room for Chinese companies to flourish. After all, aren’t Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent giving US companies a run for their money outside of China? Maybe Huawei and ZTE would be better off without Apple as a competitor in China. Who needs Android or iOS? China can do its own versions. I seem to recall that some Chinese government agency came out with Red Flag Unix as a substitute for Windows some time back.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Flag_Linux

    And we certainly did just fine with imports from China’s neighbors. I have a Made in Japan stereo receiver that works just fine, forty years after it came out. The nice thing is that these neighbors don’t have nukes aimed at our cities. Again, I don’t understand what the Chinese caterwauling is all about. China’s mandarins should be ecstatic at being liberated from the clutches of “US financial and corporate power”, the price of which was these massive Chinese trade surpluses.

  167. In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.

    I wonder if the Chinese, at some level, draw a parallel between Trump trying to destroy and rebuild the world order, and the Cultural Revolution, which, too, was intended by Mao to be a process of creative destruction, although it ended up entirely a process of destruction and little of creation.

    If that is so, it might be useful to think of President Trump as playing the role on the world stage, not of Mao, but, for the time being, of the Red Guards, too.

    You could try and use the analogy domestically. But I think the analogy breaks down, because while Trump is indeed revolutionary, the Republican rank and file, not to mention average Americans who voted for him, are exerting themselves very little indeed at a grassroots and everyday level to change the culture. At best, the latter exert themselves only to vote for his policies and candidates, but otherwise support him only silently. IMHO.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
  168. anon[331] • Disclaimer says:

    The US is the only nation with organized lobbies for both imports and exports. The typical nation pushes exports. This dynamic doomed the Ryan border adjustment tax.

  169. If you sell enough bonds, the price will fall and the yield to maturity will go up. Recall that the Govt is constantly rolling over debt, and is therefore selling new bonds of the same maturity. If existing 5 year bonds, say, go from 3% yield to 4.5% yield, investors at auctions of fresh 5 yr bonds will want the same 4.5% yield to maturity that existing 5 yr bonds will give them. Hence, the country’s borrowing costs will rise.

  170. @Anonymous

    Exactly. OTOH, Trump has raised the defense budget for no real reason other than to keep the defense contractors onside, so he may have some idea that he needs to keep them happy.

  171. @PiltdownMan

    the Republican rank and file, not to mention average Americans who voted for him, are exerting themselves very little indeed at a grassroots and everyday level to change the culture.

    Because for the most part they don’t want to change the culture. Most Trump voters are fairly affluent and live good lives. They don’t want revolution, they just want to stop the left. This is Trump’s Achilles’ heel, if you believe his actions are all strategic. He can’t explicitly explain what he is doing because most Republicans, especially donors, don’t want the US following a Noam Chomsky foreign policy.

  172. @Felix Keverich

    That probably would make more sense in Russian … I guess(?).

  173. jim jones says:

    The UR position is that genes are more important than nurture, therefore Trump being Anglo-German he will always out think Xi Jinping

    • Replies: @notanon
  174. Hunsdon says:
    @Hodag

    I laughed at the sinister Finian line!

  175. Hunsdon says:
    @TheBoom

    But my paycheck isn’t in yuan, it’s rubles!

  176. Sue says:
    @Anon

    You are delusional, this is how you WANT it to be…but, you are going to be horribly disappointed…brace yourself. Trump is the best President the USA has EVER had and he is about to save your sorry A$$. Not that you deserve it…..

  177. @Anon

    [347], most of what you’re noting is pointing out that
    a) China has been under intense Malthusian pressure for most of existence. This sucks for the people but is actually good for selection–building a smart, hard-working people.
    and
    b) China is the low trust East Asian nation, while Japan is the high trust one. This indeed holds China back and they’ll continual have to “work to do” to build institutions–rule of law, civil society–to build themselves into a people that actually makes them not just prosperous but a decent place to live.

    But otherwise … what JackD said. Right now they require the US market to support all the industry that they have. But it’s a much smaller fraction of their industrial economy and their domestic consumption larger than earlier in their big upswing. Export trade, helped–heck allowed them–ramp them up their world competitive industry. But now China is *consuming* most of the cars, i’m guessing most of the appliances and some fraction of the electronics.

    They are not a “poor” country by any stretch of the imagination now. Even by GDP/capita standards they are middle income–like Mexico or Brazil. And their trend line will have them up around the richer Southern Cone nations or the poorer Balkan/Eastern European nations probably within a decade.

    It was sheer stupidity for the US to enable them in their rise. But there isn’t some switch we can flick and stop them now. Even cutting off US trade would cause a massive recession/depression–but they would eventually fight their way out of that by further ramping up domestic consumption.

    The Chinese are on their way, while we have “elites” who don’t even know–because they are not allowed to say, and hence can not think–why the US was successful and say stuff like “Diversity is our strength!” and “Borders are racist!”.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Escher
  178. Jack D says:
    @GLT

    I don’t think that the Chinese literally intend to hang us or even to make us into a vassal state. What they DO intend to do in the long run (and you don’t have to be Nostradamus to figure this out) is to evict the US from its sphere of influence in the Pacific, one way or the other (one way being by peaceful means and the other being by force if necessary). And when I say the “long run” I don’t mean in 100 years. Xi Jinping is 65 years old and I think this is a goal (at an absolute minimum he would like to retake Taiwan) he would like to see fulfilled in his lifetime.

    Does evicting us from the Pacific mean the end of the line for America? Maybe or maybe not, but it would be a very serious blow. When the Japanese tried to do this, we were willing to fight a world war with them because it was so vitally important to us. Roosevelt could have said, “hey, I don’t live in Taiwan or the Philippines or Hawaii, so this is no noose on my neck” but he judged otherwise and for good reason.

    The US shorn of its Pacific influence would be a power in decline, economically and militarily. Such an America might survive, but even as it is now, amid economic riches, America is under stress and if there was no longer a giant pot of goodies to be given out to various groups the stresses would be much much greater and might tear the place apart.

  179. notanon says:
    @Duke of Qin

    Remember it isn’t Chinese companies or Chinese workers making the lions share of the money from from US imports. It is US companies and US capital.

    right – Wall St removed the tariffs so they could offshore and pay Chinese wages while still being able to sell back to the US at US prices – this betrayal made the banking mafia very rich at the expense of Main St.

    this distinction between Wall St and Main St is critical going forward as it is partly why the bad guys are pushing their anti-Russia narrative – to deflect from their economic betrayal – and as people push back against that narrative they are likely to point to China as a threat instead when the real problem isn’t China or Russia – it’s the Wall St. banking mafia puppeteering Washington in their interest.

  180. Trutherator says: • Website
    @Peter Akuleyev

    The Chinese and many of us do not see it as so advantageous. It is in decline. There are structures building like UN And other treaties negotiated by globalist centralized who want to subjugate the US to globalstructures everywhere.

    Not saying the Chinese are correct, but on present course lies catastrophe. Eventual. Inevitable.

  181. @Anonym

    Does China actually HAVE a West Coast? Xinjiang borders various -stans, not much salt water near there.

    • Replies: @Anonym
  182. MacNucc11 says:
    @Cloudbuster

    I am not sure that is exactly how it works. Could be that we as guarantors of the notes would have to be the buyers if no one else comes forward. At least in the short term I believe that selling does not always mean others buying but just for sale. The treasury eventually is in a situation where they can no longer sell any.

    • Replies: @Lowe
  183. MacNucc11 says:
    @Hodag

    It sounds to me like Trump is trying to reverse some of the trade imbalance leading to the fire sale of American assets that has been going on.

  184. Matra says:
    @Brutusale

    According to Radio-Canada – the French-language version of CBC radio – the killer said to a Sikh Indian restaurant owner, “Il m’a dit : “Ne t’inquiète pas, je ne vais pas t’abattre”: “Don’t worry, I’m not going to shoot you”.

    That suggests that the Muslim gunman either thought that the Sikh was a fellow Muslim so he didn’t shoot him, or that he left him alone because he was specifically targeting whites. Or both.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  185. Jack D says:
    @Johann Ricke

    I’m sorry, this is weak sauce. China was a sovereign country and had every right to make laws banning the import of deadly drugs. No one forces individual American opiate addicts to take drugs either but we still regard importation of boatloads of opiates as a crime. If the Chinese went to war with us because we refused to take illegal imports of their synthetic opiates, everyone would condemn this as an aggression.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    , @Anon
  186. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Sorry, my native language is Russian. But the important thing is that Trump is a harebrained moron. He is chipping away at the foundations of American power. Hence the universal contempt he is getting from every corner of American government.

    “””American””” power.

    Americans are being dispossessed of their country.

  187. @Jack D

    I’m sorry, this is weak sauce. China was a sovereign country and had every right to make laws banning the import of deadly drugs. No one forces individual American opiate addicts to take drugs either but we still regard importation of boatloads of opiates as a crime. If the Chinese went to war with us because we refused to take illegal imports of their synthetic opiates, everyone would condemn this as an aggression.

    In my view, the question isn’t whether this was aggression. In the resolution of irreconcilable disputes between states, armed aggression has been the coin of the realm long before the written word, if cave drawings are any indication. It was certainly an arrow in the Chinese empire’s quiver for perhaps 5000 years, in the course of which various Northeast Asian states swapped territory based on how far their armies got before they were stopped via military defeat. The process of interstate aggression in Northeast Asia resulted in a cumulative hundreds of millions dead, thanks to the Four Horsemen, if the drastic drops in population at the end of the periodic (though less frequent than Europe’s) large scale intra- or inter-state clashes recorded by various tax censuses are any indication. Note that at the time of the first Anglo-Chinese War, China had just completed its Ten Great Campaigns several decades ago, in the middle of which it exterminated the Zunghar population, with an estimated body count close to 1m people.

    The British merely wanted to export a commodity to China that that Chinese were already using via an inferior domestic cultivar. In addition, opium was in wide legal use both within the British empire and the rest of the world. That this was some big sin seems like a stretch.

    Whereas today, narcotic drugs are almost universally banned around the world, including in China, which executes people for selling marijuana, never mind opioids. It would be an act of great hypocrisy for China to force open foreign markets for these drugs. And it’s not as if synthetic opiates are legally available domestically in the US, except via doctor’s prescription. Whereas British officials merely forced open a Chinese market that was already recreationally consuming domestic opium, but preferred the more potent foreign variety.

    In my view, the Chinese officialdom needed an excuse for the misery imposed by Malthusian pressures due to large increases in the Chinese population as a result of the introduction of corn, the potato and the sweet potato from the Americas. They seized on opium as a cause and their excuse has taken on such a life of its own that it’s now holy writ. The British empire went from strength to strength despite the ready and legal availability of opium, laudanum, cocaine and other narcotic drugs within the realm. And stateside drug addiction rates among Asians are the lowest among all ethnicities, meaning there was no special Chinese susceptibility to drug use.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    , @Jack D
  188. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    why the US was successful

    What made the US successful?

    • Replies: @notanon
  189. Anon[202] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    As long as we are getting into legalistic niceties rather than the broad moralistic outlines of the issue (by which the British are certainly in the wrong) it should be noted that the British action was actually in response to the illegal (or claimed to be illegal) and brutal treatment of British subjects, in violation of their rights.

  190. @Johann Ricke

    The British empire went from strength to strength despite the ready and legal availability of opium, laudanum, cocaine and other narcotic drugs within the realm. And stateside drug addiction rates among Asians are the lowest among all ethnicities, meaning there was no special Chinese susceptibility to drug use.

    Exactly.

    One has to love it when someone with depth-of-knowledge in a subject kicks the ass of someone who has shallow, middle-public-popular knowledge of a few subjects and constantly spends an unbelievable amount of 24/7 time putting others down.

    Good on you.

  191. Jack D says:
    @Johann Ricke

    In the resolution of irreconcilable disputes between states, armed aggression has been the coin of the realm

    In other words, might makes right. Did this make Hitler “right” until he became “wrong” at Stalingrad or was he “wrong” all along?

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
  192. notanon says:
    @Anonymous

    genetics + natural resources

  193. Coag says:
    @Duke of Qin

    The view you’re advancing is the common misunderstanding among the Chinese elite as I’ve observed. The Chinese are clever and realists but it appears this is the one thing they don’t understand about the current situation, and there’s no reason for them to. The Chinese don’t have an intuitive understanding of American society, and don’t grasp that American societal cohesion has been seriously, possibly irrevocably, damaged by and the gutting of the American industrial heartland and the relocation of industry overseas (to China and other places). So the Chinese believe that wealth transfer (from the American middle class) to American corporations reflects American strength when in reality it’s based on the dissolution of American society and a fatal long-term weakening of the US’ fundamentals.

    How we leverage this asymmetry of information in terms of geopolitical options, I don’t know. In fact I suspect the Chinese know this, and make disingenuous arguments to try to convince Americans to keep steady with the self-sabotaging status quo. In other words to piss on America’s back and tell ‘em it’s just raining.

    Remember it isn’t Chinese companies or Chinese workers making the lions share of the money from from US imports. It is US companies and US capital.

    So in other words ignore entirely the spectacular rise of the Chinese economy in the last generation and the uplift of hundreds of millions from poverty to solid middle class prosperity, as driven by Beijing’s systematic export-based strategy. Still can’t tell if it’s disingenuousness or willful or sincere lack of self-awareness.

  194. @Jack D

    In other words, might makes right. Did this make Hitler “right” until he became “wrong” at Stalingrad or was he “wrong” all along?

    In other words, it wasn’t pretty, but it wasn’t a Holocaust of the kind the Chinese inflicted on the Zunghars, where 80% of the population was killed. And in the annals of un-pretty events, it wasn’t even close to any of the numerous massacres mounted inside of China by various Northeast Asian warlords, whether emperors or merely unsuccessful contenders, a small sample of which is listed on Wikipedia. What the Anglo-Chinese Wars really boiled down to were just another pair of skirmishes in an era where all manner of interstate disputes had been decided on the battlefield for literally thousands of years with much larger loss of life. And Malthus, not opium, was the cause of China’s malaise in the late 18th, 19th and early 20th centuries. Then the Communist Party made things far, far worse, for a period of three decades.

  195. @Thorfinnsson

    “Monetizing” the debt is the word you’re after, I think.

    Yes, the Fed can purchase unlimited quantities through open market operations (the Fed “buys” bonds from banks with “reserves” they just create out of thin air and so the money supply is increased), but inflation is the ever-present danger.

    (I am sure you already know this, but some readers may appreciate the refresher.)

    The upward pressure on prices is an immutable law, and sometimes when smart people think they have things under control and can afford to crank the money-machine, really really bad things happen.

    Germany’s hyperinflation of 1923 ruined the German middle class and helped to pave the way for the rise of the Nazi’s.

    (There, I just invoked Godwin’s Law!)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

    • Replies: @Anon
  196. @Coag

    Singapore, which was settled by the dregs of the Chinese gene pool

    It’s not a given that they were the cognitive dregs. Ruling elites are descended from murderous schemers. While there is some overlap with cognitive ability, it’s not a perfect overlap. Jews never became the ruling elite of any European country, but they are clearly the creme de la creme of European intellect.

  197. Anon[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paul Jolliffe

    The upward pressure on prices is an immutable law

    What law is that?

    • Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
  198. Anonymous[319] • Disclaimer says:
    @Matra

    Sikhs retaliate when their people are attacked. Killing a Sikh would have probably got a bunch of Muslims killed in revenge. There’s no danger of that with whites.

  199. notanon says:
    @jim jones

    people who base their predictions on genetics wouldn’t predict that at all

    brains + more risky aggression vs slightly more brains = 60:40 to 50:50

    with Trump handicapped by traitors within -> 50:50 to 40:60

  200. Escher says:
    @LondonBob

    Is it Russia or the Fed that is driving up interest rates?

  201. Escher says:
    @AnotherDad

    China has been under intense Malthusian pressure for most of existence. This sucks for the people but is actually good for selection–building a smart, hard-working people.

    Genetics plays an important role too, else the average Indian (in India) would also have a high IQ and be hard working.

  202. MBlanc46 says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I’ve no interest in making things more favorable for Washington. I do have a great interest in making things more favorable for the American people. That’s what our government should be doing. If your government is not doing that for you, you should be on their case, to the extent that your system allows, to start doing so.

  203. MBlanc46 says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Calm down, Felix. It’s not that bad. NATO lost its reason for being more than a quarter of a century ago and the US was doing just fine before the EU or even the Coal and Steel Community existed. We don’t have to “talk from a position of strength” to Russia as long as they don’t threaten our interests (and we don’t threaten theirs). China is another story, but it’s hard to imagine the EU or NATO being of much use in a US-China confrontation.

  204. MBlanc46 says:
    @Jason Liu

    Too bad the Western elites don’t promote liberal democracy in their own countries.

  205. MBlanc46 says:
    @Svigor

    Exactly, Svigor. Bugger Washington. Neutron bomb the place. Up America.

  206. MBlanc46 says:
    @AnotherDad

    Yet another AnotherDad comment that splits the arrow.

  207. Lowe says:
    @Anon

    No, they could not. That would be a disaster. No foreigner would ever buy treasuries again.

    • Replies: @Anon
  208. Lowe says:
    @LondonBob

    I am not sure you can attribute a recent rise in rates to any foreign gov’t decision to sell their bonds. Of course it contributed, but the Fed has also been increasing the reserve deposit rate and inter-bank rate, as well as targeting higher yields in their open market operations, for a while now. Increasing rates is what they want… which is probably the right decision now, for our economy.

    I don’t think we can say the US gov’t is on thin ice regarding it’s debt either. It’s true that the debt increased a lot between the Bush and Obama administrations, but total Federal debt is less than a third of the total debt in the US economy.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN

    The US gov’t could only really be said to have a problem if there was a relative lack of interest in buying bonds, but I doubt there is such a lack of interest… because rates are still historically low. That is not just because of Fed policy for the last decade. It’s because investors all over the world want to lock in reasonable, if somewhat low rates. What is the alternative to US bonds in this respect? Gov’t bond yields are usually even lower in Europe.

    As I said previously, discussions of this subject often veer into conspiracy theory territory. All this is boring in real life. You shouldn’t read a lot into the decisions of foreign gov’ts to grow or pare down their portfolios, because they don’t make public their reasons for doing this. Further, the US is not near any kind of debt crisis. We would know it, if it were.

  209. Lowe says:
    @MacNucc11

    The situation where China could not find a buyer or set of buyers for its treasuries is hard to imagine. US treasuries are basically the most liquid asset on Earth.

  210. Lowe says:
    @Felix Keverich

    The United States is the source of power that props up the other NATO members, not the other way around. European NATO nations have small militaries. The US uses its military power to negotiate from a position of strength, not its strange relationship with defenseless European countries.

    I grant that those nations are useful for intelligence gathering, and certainly these alliances add an air of legitimacy to things the US decides to do, such as when Tony Blair joined George Bush in deciding to ruin Iraq. It would have looked worse without Blair, or other “allies” who jumped on the bandwagon to ruin a functioning country.

    Still, power comes from guns, not words. Whether Eastern Europe is a Russian protectorate is just words. Does that mean they will become Russian provinces, or pay tribute to Russia? No, and no. It just means they will start sucking up to Russia instead of us, and sharing intelligence sometimes. In other words they all become Russia’s problem instead of ours.

    Nobody in the US would care about that, except that it is apparently our divinely inspired mission (as conveyed by the editorial board of the New York Times) to sniff out homophobia wherever it lies, and impose gay pride parades world over, including in Russia and its neighbors.

  211. Anon[327] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lowe

    No foreigner would ever buy treasuries again.

    Good.

  212. Anonymous[136] • Disclaimer says:
    @penskefile

    To copy Trump’s style they first need Trump’s fortune. No regular politician can afford to do this.

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