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From FiveThirtyEight, a typical MSM handling of the unfortunate statistics released today by the FBI:

The U.S. Murder Rate Is Up But Still Far Below Its 1980 Peak
By Jeff Asher

SEP. 25, 2017 AT 9:55 AM

The number of murders rose 8.6 percent nationwide in 2016, according to the FBI’s newest round of crime statistics, released Monday. There were an estimated 17,250 murders1 last year, up from 15,883 in 2015. The murder rate also rose for a second straight year, but it’s still roughly where it was in 2008, far below the levels of the 1980s and early 1990s.

So, nationally, the homicide rate is up over 20% since 2014, the year of Ferguson and BLM. That’s over 4,400 more dead bodies in the last two years of the Obama Administration than if the homicide totals had simply stayed at the 2014 level for 2015 and 2016.

That is a lot of extra dead people.

The biggest increases in homicides have typically been seen where BLM has had its biggest successes, such as Baltimore and Chicago.

But, that doesn’t matter to the press because the homicide rate is still lower than in 1980 at the peak of the Miami Vice powder cocaine wars and in 1991 at the peak of the NWA crack cocaine wars!

What if the Trump Administration in 2018 launched a huge campaign to roll back car safety and traffic regulations and sent the Justice Department to crack down on local police departments targeting speeders?

And say the number of traffic deaths increased over 20% by 2020, with locations of increased accidents being largely in cities targeted by the Trump Department of Justice and Trump’s affiliated #FastDrivesLegal pressure group.

Would we all be saying, “Well, sure, deaths are up 20% in two years … but they are still down since 1980, so it’s irresponsible to blame Trump”?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKQ-U-rnLdo

Would statistical analysts be saying, “Yeah, but the number Ford Pintos exploding into flames on Trump’s watch is below the number in 1980, so what are you bellyaching about?”

 
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  1. dwb says:

    I know that your question is meant to be rhetorical, but of course no.

    There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM “movement.” Which is not ever to be confused with violence or anti-police activity.

    It’s all about obtaining “justice and equality.”

    But setting the sarcasm to the side, the problem is even worse than that. While your hypothetical about Trump and speeding would surely bring immediate correlation, at least the correlation would be based in some reality.

    Recall the hysteria that got the whole BLM gang going to begin with – a “rash” in police violence against black “youths.”

    That was not even based in data. People looking into it (Snopes included) have shown that police killings are actually DOWN, and that, when adjusting for all the variables, police are far more likely to kill white male young people than black, the “narrative” remained that there was some existential treat to black men under 30.

    And it continues to this day, despite numerical evidence that stands to the contrary.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Luke Lea
    "There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM 'movement.'"

    Remind me again, why are all those NFL players taking a knee?
    , @guest
    The BLM "movement" kicked off the year following the Martyrdom of St. Trayvon of the Skittles, which coincidentally became a cause celebre of the MSM the summer before Obama's reelection. It was more about the long-standing bad blood between the cops and black neighborhoods where civilization fears to raise its head than statistics. But it was even more about electoral politics than bad blood.

    When the Gentle Giant and Freddie Gray died in subsequent years, they were ready to go. But the summer before the coronation of Queen Hillary, woo-boy, they went Al-Queda on us. Which was too far, even for them. People noticed, and no misunderstanding of the reality of policing was enough to let them stomach it.

    The plan, obviously, was to drum up black turnout like St. Trayvon, the Son Obama Never Had, did in 2012. Instead, we saw Dallas under siege, and BLM was as unwelcome nationally as Nazis in Charlottesville. I'm surprised the "movement" didn't disappear from the national spotlight, or at least change its name.

    But they're still thought useful, even if Hillary lost partly because of them. They're currently helping the NFL commit suicide, and hopefully will hand ever more victories to the right.

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  2. It’s powder cocaine …in 1980

    And bad crack cocaine …in 1991

    And Black Lives Matter …in 2014

    Will get you just the same

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Feets don't fail me now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4aM4cgIIOY

    You can drop me off on Peachtree, I got to feel that Georgia sun.
    and the women there in Atlanta make you awfully glad you come.
    ... watching those planes.. wish I was on one.


    Apropos of absolutely nothin', except for Little Feat, sorry.
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  3. The notion that the Ferguson effect can’t be real or significant because the rise in homicides hasn’t been universally or evenly observed is misconceived. I reckon it will be more readily felt in places where other factors, such as a surge in gang warfare, cause an initial spike in gun crime, and the lack of a heavy police hand fails to dampen it down.

    Regarding the increase in the murder rate, is there a breakdown of the type of homicides that have risen most?

    Read More
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  4. Alt-Right Republican Party congressional primary candidates should connect the Democrat Party and Obama to the explosion of murderous Black violence since the formation of the Black Lives Matter movement. The corporate media will go bananas, but the statistics out of Chicago, Baltimore and other cities proves that there has been a spike in Black criminality and Black criminal violence since the inception of the Black Lives Matter insurgency.

    The Alt-Right candidates should force the Democrat Party to defend the Black Lives Matter mob. Politicizing the dramatic jump in Black murderous violence since the Black Lives Matter revolt will also be beneficial to widen the divide between the patriotic Alt-Right and the globalizer cucks in the Republican Party. The globalizer donors won’t let the GOP cuckservatives say a bad word about the Black Lives Matter mob.

    Read More
    • LOL: IHTG
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  5. newrouter says:

    Hard Data, Hollow Protests
    FBI crime figures paint a very different picture of crime and policing than this weekend’s demonstrations suggest.

    Heather Mac Donald

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/hard-data-hollow-protests-15458.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @Luke Lea
    Heather Mac Donald deserves a medal for telling the truth under fire. #withoutfearorfavor
    , @Sajmon
    Heather Mac Donald wrote:

    "Among all homicide suspects whose race was known, white killers of blacks numbered only 243."

    It's impossible. Jared Taylor and Colin Flahery were able to find only four (4) white on black murders, killed by three perps, for the whole 2014:

    https://www.hoplofobia.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Memorial_Wall_2014.pdf

    Again: how is it posible for whites to kill 243 blacks in 2016? Is it because Hispanics are coded as white suspects?

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  6. Goatweed says:

    Numbers showing blacks killed 2014, 2016?

    Blacks killed by police 2014, 2016?

    Police killed by blacks 2014, 2016?

    Read More
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  7. George says:

    Maybe there is a financial crisis similar to the one caused by the Vietnam war. BLM is just a distraction from the underlying problem.

    Chicago worst among 15 major cities grappling with pensions

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/chicago-worst-among-15-major-cities-grappling-with-pensions/

    Balt. County pension reform: Too little, too late

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/readersrespond/bs-ed-rr-pension-20170907-story.html

    Read More
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  8. inertial says:

    What if the Trump Administration in 2018 launched a huge campaign to roll back car safety and traffic regulations and sent the Justice Department to crack down on local police departments targeting speeders

    This almost happened in real life, under Obama administration. Remember how they blamed speed traps for Ferguson riots? We were this close to launching a war on racist traffic tickets.

    Read More
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  9. Well, I guess we are still better than South Africa, so we’re still Ok. Right?

    Read More
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  10. Polynikes says:

    Mr. Sailer is obviously well read by many of the msm elites, but this narrative doesn’t seem to be catching on. He makes a compelling case, though.

    I wonder what another year of data, under Trump, will do. It might take a couple years of back – to – normal to turn around the trend. Although on a local note, I see that Milwaukee’s Obama era police chief has decided to end his idiotic, soft-on-crime, no chase policy.

    Read More
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  11. MBlanc46 says:

    20% more mostly black bodies. That’s apparently what they want. Who am I to say that they shouldn’t have it?

    Read More
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  12. Pat Boyle says:

    If I were in molecular genetics or some such field rather than in software development, I would move into the area of human muscular composition. Blacks (West Africans) are better at almost all speed events because they have a predominance of ‘fast twitch’ muscle fibers whereas whites have ‘slow twitch’ fibers. So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks. And of course they will be better behaved.

    So blacks have possibly a very short future in professional sports. When we can have well behaved white athletes with fast twitch leg muscles there will be no room for blacks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Yak-15
    The soviets developed some very effective and fascinating plyometric techniques. They also did similar stuff with weight training combined with those things. And steroids. I think it's rather difficult to convert muscle tissue and I believe genetics play a huge role.
    , @Luke Lea
    "So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks."

    There has already been a notable increase in the number of white receivers in pro football. Anybody know why?

    , @International Jew
    You'd better stick to software development.
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  13. @Charles Pewitt
    It's powder cocaine ...in 1980

    And bad crack cocaine ...in 1991

    And Black Lives Matter ...in 2014

    Will get you just the same

    https://youtu.be/bCROkG4SKao

    Feets don’t fail me now.

    You can drop me off on Peachtree, I got to feel that Georgia sun.
    and the women there in Atlanta make you awfully glad you come.
    … watching those planes.. wish I was on one.

    Apropos of absolutely nothin’, except for Little Feat, sorry.

    Read More
    • Replies: @the one they call Desanex
    Those great Little Feat covers were by Neon Park (real name Martin Muller), who also did my all-time favorite album cover, Weasels Ripped My Flesh, for Frank Zappa: https://longgonebutnotforgotten.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/1970_2_weaselsrippedmyflesh.jpg
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  14. JA says:

    OT But Three-Alarm iSteve Material:

    Someone has created a cross-tabbed database of crimes for which NFL players have been arrested.

    http://nflarrest.com/

    Read More
    • Replies: @CK
    Hard sight to get to. Must be a lot of interest.
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  15. Dahlia says:

    So, nationally, the homicide rate is up over 20% since 2014, the year of Ferguson and BLM. That’s over 4,400 more dead bodies in the last two years…

    That is one heck of a spike. Geez!

    The biggest increases in homicides have typically been seen where BLM has had its biggest successes, such as Baltimore and Chicago.

    Hopefully, they’ll take back power from the neolibs and organically reinvent BLM to actually stand for what it says or create something new, because this seems untenable.

    Read More
    • Replies: @whorefinder
    I think the Corporate Left is so sick they think these deaths are a good thing---will make for fewer blacks they need to displace to buy up that city real estate. And also creates a crisis that will allow for more draconian measures such as eminent domain.

    "This (diverse) neighborhood is so beset by crime, only by taking these crack houses free of charge and letting corporations protect them can we save them!"

    I'm a racist and I don't want blacks killing each other. This is like how I don't like open or toleration of homosexulity but I don't want gays tossed off buildings, tortured, or stoned to death, yet the Left wants to import a culture that wants that wholeheartedly. But I guess that makes me a inhuman evil person and the Leftists on the side of angels.

    Sick.
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  16. And in other news, worldwide poverty is way down since, I dunno, 1800?

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

    This shite is completely retarded.

    Read More
    • Replies: @guest
    I think it's more the electrical and internal combustion engine revolutions of the turn of the 20th century than the industrial revolution of a previous century that truly altered global poverty levels. That and the so-called Green Revolution, of course.

    Which just means all the more misery is to come when Western Civilization either collapses or can't deal with the problems it creates anymore.
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  17. whorefinder says: • Website

    Nate Silver in 1918: “Compared to the Black Death, this Spanish Flu ain’t so bad! So quit worrying and claiming this is a crisis, bigots!”

    Read More
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  18. whorefinder says: • Website
    @Dahlia

    So, nationally, the homicide rate is up over 20% since 2014, the year of Ferguson and BLM. That’s over 4,400 more dead bodies in the last two years...
     
    That is one heck of a spike. Geez!

    The biggest increases in homicides have typically been seen where BLM has had its biggest successes, such as Baltimore and Chicago.
     
    Hopefully, they'll take back power from the neolibs and organically reinvent BLM to actually stand for what it says or create something new, because this seems untenable.

    I think the Corporate Left is so sick they think these deaths are a good thing—will make for fewer blacks they need to displace to buy up that city real estate. And also creates a crisis that will allow for more draconian measures such as eminent domain.

    “This (diverse) neighborhood is so beset by crime, only by taking these crack houses free of charge and letting corporations protect them can we save them!”

    I’m a racist and I don’t want blacks killing each other. This is like how I don’t like open or toleration of homosexulity but I don’t want gays tossed off buildings, tortured, or stoned to death, yet the Left wants to import a culture that wants that wholeheartedly. But I guess that makes me a inhuman evil person and the Leftists on the side of angels.

    Sick.

    Read More
    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Sandmich
    I agree, I think confining inner city blacks to some sort of unattended gladiator contest is bad all around. And yet..when given the chance, when whites can vote for people who pay lip service to the opioids crisis they vote for them; when blacks get a chance to vote for someone who pays lip service to the murder/crime crisis they vote for...the other guy.

    The only obvious answer is internal cononialization by disinfranchising inner city voters, but that's a non-starter, so it's murder-burgs they shall have.
    , @Hibernian
    "I’m a racist and I don’t want blacks killing each other."

    That's a statement an eccentric Mississipian might have made to a Northern professor or reporter in 1948.
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  19. That’s the power of controlling the megaphone. It doesn’t matter if your side’s policies have had a directly deliterious impact on exactly the social I’ll you claim to care about. The media frames the narrative so the heroes (courageous black protesters) and villains (Trump and racist white cops) are very clear, and these data are filler in the back pages of the NYT, boringly covered on 538, and only remarked on in any meaningful way in the City Journal or on iSteve or Brietbart. In the minds of 95% of Americans who don’t consume any of that media, they’ll never know that the empirical impact of #BlackLivesMatter has demonstrably been thousands of extra black lives lost. It’s like it never even happened.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Travis
    true...but BLM leaders never cared about statistics, it was a political movement to rile up Blacks to increase their hatred towards whites ... with the hope that more Blacks would go to the polls and elect more leftist politicians. But it backfired , as the riots and increased violence resulted in more white Americans voting for GOP candidates. If Putin really wants Trump to win again in 2020 he will be financing BLM to keep the group in the news, with more demonstrations which is likely to inspire more violence against the police and thus ensure another GOP victory in 2020.
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  20. If a group of people in Japan or Korea or Israel or Estonia were killing like this, cabinet meetings would be called, the Prime Minister would be on TV, the army would be on the streets. Those are serious countries and there would be a “national crisis” in each one of them.

    Do you sense there is a national crisis here?

    The proponents of open immigration, an ethnic spoils system and “citizenism” have done their work well. There is no “national crisis” … because there is no nation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta
    Agreed.

    There's also a sad condescension that the people and areas most affected just can't do any better.

    Having lived overseas made me appreciate how appallingly indifferent Americans of all races are to the security challenges in its no-go areas. Americans take it for granted, don't expect any better and don't bother trying.

    It's laughable that Americans strive to "guarantee health care for all" when they consider it impossible to pacify the hoods so the grannies and harmless bookish kids (like young Ta-Nehisi) can go outside, shop, play, get to the library, read comic books, etc without the menace of trouble makers & thugs.

    For some reason the concerns for the dindu-nuffins who own the hood have primacy over the innocent law-abiding citizens who can't necessarily afford or otherwise haven't had the fortune to be "affirmatively spirited further away" to live in a good school district.

    It's odd that when I've discussed this concern with the bien-pensant progressives they're horrified and want nothing of the kind of law and order that might make it possible for honest people to enjoy the same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. Apparently they view law enforcement and justice institutions as some kind of foreign occupying force that is only there to harass and make them miserable. All the BLM & NFL protests make it pretty clear: there is absolutely nothing that can be done to make many of these people feel like these American institutions are their own, operate with fairness and in good faith. Decades of divisive identity politics propaganda have compounded whatever treatment & behavior with a tragic paranoia and mistrust of authorities that probably costs more lives than whatever biased or otherwise hopelessly poorly trained & prepared cops.

    I despair that there is no way to improve things. Of course the agitators aren't really aiming to improve things, but rather divide and reap power. The situation is clear with every gesture, demolished memorial, purged chapter of shared history that there is no common sense of ownership & support for our civic institutions. With no shared constituting history, no stake in current institutions (even that last lowest common denominator, the NFL, is being deconstructed) there is no stake in the future or shared destiny.

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  21. prosa123 says: • Website

    While statistics aren’t anywhere close to complete, the best estimate is that between 25% and 50% of people shot by police are mentally ill, usually with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. This is vastly in excess of their total share of the population.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hibernian
    My guess is that a fair number are suicidal and intent on suicide-by-cop.
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  22. George says:

    FWIW my shoddy analysis:
    There are about 1/3 more people in the US now than 1980

    The prime 15-24 murder demographic was larger in 1980 than today by about 40%.

    2016 13.5% of the US population was 15-24

    http://www.indexmundi.com/united_states/age_structure.html

    1980 18.8% of the US population was 15-24
    see page 6 if you want to check my calculation.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/pop6097.pdf

    There may be some kind of network effect where the potential for murder increases faster than the percent of 15-24. Geography might be important too, in 1980 teens might have lived in closer proximity in cities.

    Read More
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  23. Thomas says:

    But, that doesn’t matter to the press because the homicide rate is still lower than in 1980 at the peak of the Miami Vice powder cocaine wars and in 1991 at the peak of the NWA crack cocaine wars!

    Black Lives Matter: the new crack.

    Read More
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  24. Luke Lea says:
    @dwb
    I know that your question is meant to be rhetorical, but of course no.

    There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM "movement." Which is not ever to be confused with violence or anti-police activity.

    It's all about obtaining "justice and equality."

    But setting the sarcasm to the side, the problem is even worse than that. While your hypothetical about Trump and speeding would surely bring immediate correlation, at least the correlation would be based in some reality.

    Recall the hysteria that got the whole BLM gang going to begin with - a "rash" in police violence against black "youths."

    That was not even based in data. People looking into it (Snopes included) have shown that police killings are actually DOWN, and that, when adjusting for all the variables, police are far more likely to kill white male young people than black, the "narrative" remained that there was some existential treat to black men under 30.

    And it continues to this day, despite numerical evidence that stands to the contrary.

    “There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM ‘movement.’”

    Remind me again, why are all those NFL players taking a knee?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pat Boyle
    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee? Most of the offenders would be black and that would tend to make the remaining players more white.

    Most of the paying public is white, so such an action is likely to increase profits. No?

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  25. Yak-15 says:
    @Pat Boyle
    If I were in molecular genetics or some such field rather than in software development, I would move into the area of human muscular composition. Blacks (West Africans) are better at almost all speed events because they have a predominance of 'fast twitch' muscle fibers whereas whites have 'slow twitch' fibers. So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks. And of course they will be better behaved.

    So blacks have possibly a very short future in professional sports. When we can have well behaved white athletes with fast twitch leg muscles there will be no room for blacks.

    The soviets developed some very effective and fascinating plyometric techniques. They also did similar stuff with weight training combined with those things. And steroids. I think it’s rather difficult to convert muscle tissue and I believe genetics play a huge role.

    Read More
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  26. Alfa158 says:

    To what extent are the most affected communities even bothered by this? Even though I live in a Whitopia this bothers me because it burns up tax money. I get the impression that Black neighborhoods prefer a more lax style of policing. Too many of the residents have family and friends involved in criminal activity so strict policing scoops up them or people they know.
    Additionally they seem to be more comfortable with violence and are happy to substitute revenge for justice.
    Maybe then they are just fine with a lighter police presence that acts a little more like a fire department. It engages in less proactive patrolling and more just showing up when they are called. Community policing should reflect what the community wants.
    If the community wants fewer stops and frisks, give it to them and let the cops
    focus on covering my neighborhood.

    Read More
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  27. Luke Lea says:
    @newrouter
    Hard Data, Hollow Protests
    FBI crime figures paint a very different picture of crime and policing than this weekend’s demonstrations suggest.

    Heather Mac Donald

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/hard-data-hollow-protests-15458.html

    Heather Mac Donald deserves a medal for telling the truth under fire. #withoutfearorfavor

    Read More
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  28. Luke Lea says:
    @Pat Boyle
    If I were in molecular genetics or some such field rather than in software development, I would move into the area of human muscular composition. Blacks (West Africans) are better at almost all speed events because they have a predominance of 'fast twitch' muscle fibers whereas whites have 'slow twitch' fibers. So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks. And of course they will be better behaved.

    So blacks have possibly a very short future in professional sports. When we can have well behaved white athletes with fast twitch leg muscles there will be no room for blacks.

    “So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks.”

    There has already been a notable increase in the number of white receivers in pro football. Anybody know why?

    Read More
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  29. Luke Lea says:

    “I get the impression that Black neighborhoods prefer a more lax style of policing.”

    Not if you talk to the mothers and grandmothers. Heather Mac Donald has written about this. They want the gang bangers and drug dealers off the streets.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JerryC
    In the abstract, maybe they want all those thugs off the street. But whenever the cops arrest a specific gang banger or drug dealer, his grandma and aunties are all "He a good boy, he dindu nuffin. De poleece be racist!". That's why we are where we are with this.
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  30. @cwhatfuture
    If a group of people in Japan or Korea or Israel or Estonia were killing like this, cabinet meetings would be called, the Prime Minister would be on TV, the army would be on the streets. Those are serious countries and there would be a "national crisis" in each one of them.

    Do you sense there is a national crisis here?

    The proponents of open immigration, an ethnic spoils system and "citizenism" have done their work well. There is no "national crisis" ... because there is no nation.

    Agreed.

    There’s also a sad condescension that the people and areas most affected just can’t do any better.

    Having lived overseas made me appreciate how appallingly indifferent Americans of all races are to the security challenges in its no-go areas. Americans take it for granted, don’t expect any better and don’t bother trying.

    It’s laughable that Americans strive to “guarantee health care for all” when they consider it impossible to pacify the hoods so the grannies and harmless bookish kids (like young Ta-Nehisi) can go outside, shop, play, get to the library, read comic books, etc without the menace of trouble makers & thugs.

    For some reason the concerns for the dindu-nuffins who own the hood have primacy over the innocent law-abiding citizens who can’t necessarily afford or otherwise haven’t had the fortune to be “affirmatively spirited further away” to live in a good school district.

    It’s odd that when I’ve discussed this concern with the bien-pensant progressives they’re horrified and want nothing of the kind of law and order that might make it possible for honest people to enjoy the same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. Apparently they view law enforcement and justice institutions as some kind of foreign occupying force that is only there to harass and make them miserable. All the BLM & NFL protests make it pretty clear: there is absolutely nothing that can be done to make many of these people feel like these American institutions are their own, operate with fairness and in good faith. Decades of divisive identity politics propaganda have compounded whatever treatment & behavior with a tragic paranoia and mistrust of authorities that probably costs more lives than whatever biased or otherwise hopelessly poorly trained & prepared cops.

    I despair that there is no way to improve things. Of course the agitators aren’t really aiming to improve things, but rather divide and reap power. The situation is clear with every gesture, demolished memorial, purged chapter of shared history that there is no common sense of ownership & support for our civic institutions. With no shared constituting history, no stake in current institutions (even that last lowest common denominator, the NFL, is being deconstructed) there is no stake in the future or shared destiny.

    Read More
    • Replies: @newrouter
    "same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. "

    white flight = get the heck away from negros
    gentrification = take back good real estate the negros collectively squandered
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  31. Anonym says:

    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980. From that perspective, comparisons with the previous year in terms of talking about trends is most meaningful, and it gets less meaningful the further back you take it (to a point).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Over the period running from 1992 to 2014, the homicide rate declined pari passu with the rate of aggravated assault.
    , @Mark Roulo

    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980.
     
    The ER medicine is probably better, but at least in Baltimore the bad guys are getting better at killing. The guns used have switched to higher caliber as well as higher capacity. And the folks using the guns are going for more head shots.


    In many places, if you get shot, you are more likely to die than ever before.

    In Baltimore, one of every three people struck by gunfire dies, up from one death in every four shootings the previous decade. It ranks as one of the most lethal of America's largest cities, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis. Two other cities — Washington and New Orleans — shared the brutal distinction of one in three shootings ending in a homicide in 2015. Like Baltimore, several cities have seen the death grip tighten. In Chicago, one in 10 people died after being shot in 2000; now one in six perishes.

    :

    On the streets, particularly in poor, black neighborhoods, residents are witnessing increasingly deadly tactics. More shooters are aiming for the head and firing multiple rounds into victims.

    :

    The number of fatal head shots in the city rose steadily from about 13 percent two decades ago to 62 percent last year. Meanwhile, the number of cadavers with 10 or more bullets more than doubled in the past decade, according to the Maryland medical examiner’s office, which tallied the bullet wounds at the request of The Sun.

    Now, roughly two-thirds of city homicide victims are either shot in the head or multiple times. Many suffer both fates.

    Guns have also become more deadly, as the weapon of choice for criminals and then law enforcement shifted from the revolver to the semiautomatic pistol, which can fire more bullets without reloading. Nationally, the number of 9 mm and .40-caliber guns taken off the streets surged during the past four years, as seizures of less powerful .22-caliber guns remained relatively flat.

    In Maryland, seizures of 9 mm handguns overtook .22-caliber guns for the first time last year. Most were recovered from Baltimore's streets, where the saying goes: “Buy every gun that comes through; don't let it be the gun that kills you.”

    Many of the guns are equipped with extended magazines, allowing a shooter to fire from a distance and “walk down” a victim, continuously firing. The sale of “extendos” with more than 10 rounds are banned in Maryland, where they are prized in street cultures, tucked under belts and into pants as a fashion statement. In Baltimore, police are finding up to 80 shell casings at a single crime scene.

     

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/shoot-to-kill/
    , @Hibernian
    This makes sense; a similar phenomenon in the military is a good part of the reason why combat deaths in the GWOT are much lower than those in Vietnam.
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  32. Funny that they want to look ever farther into the past when it comes to homicide rates. When it comes to deaths due to terrorism they always seem to want to stop at September 12, 2001.

    Read More
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  33. Luke Lea says:

    I expect to see more people like Candace Owens in the years ahead:

    Read More
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  34. anon says: • Disclaimer

    The Tables don’t format very well. This is the FBI data for the State of Illinois and the City of Chicago. The ‘Illinois excluding Chicago’ was calculated by me. Note that the rate … is reasonably flat year over year. 2.7 per 100,000 compared to 2.9 per 100,000. Also consider that this included East St Louis and the Illinois portion of St Louis as well as plenty of suburban areas that I would never consider living.

    The total year/year is 8.2 for 2016 compared to 5.9 for 2015. This is a big jump.

    The excl Chicago murders increased by 13 out of 10 million.

    Homicide Data based on FBI

    Illinois
    murders/population/rate per 100,000
    2015 754 12,839,047. 5.9
    2016 1,054 12,801,539 8.2

    Chicago
    2015 478 2,728,695 17.5
    2016 765 2,725,153 28.1

    Illinois Excl Chicago
    2015 276 10,110,352 2.7
    2016 289 10,076,386 2.9

    Read More
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  35. newrouter says:
    @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta
    Agreed.

    There's also a sad condescension that the people and areas most affected just can't do any better.

    Having lived overseas made me appreciate how appallingly indifferent Americans of all races are to the security challenges in its no-go areas. Americans take it for granted, don't expect any better and don't bother trying.

    It's laughable that Americans strive to "guarantee health care for all" when they consider it impossible to pacify the hoods so the grannies and harmless bookish kids (like young Ta-Nehisi) can go outside, shop, play, get to the library, read comic books, etc without the menace of trouble makers & thugs.

    For some reason the concerns for the dindu-nuffins who own the hood have primacy over the innocent law-abiding citizens who can't necessarily afford or otherwise haven't had the fortune to be "affirmatively spirited further away" to live in a good school district.

    It's odd that when I've discussed this concern with the bien-pensant progressives they're horrified and want nothing of the kind of law and order that might make it possible for honest people to enjoy the same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. Apparently they view law enforcement and justice institutions as some kind of foreign occupying force that is only there to harass and make them miserable. All the BLM & NFL protests make it pretty clear: there is absolutely nothing that can be done to make many of these people feel like these American institutions are their own, operate with fairness and in good faith. Decades of divisive identity politics propaganda have compounded whatever treatment & behavior with a tragic paranoia and mistrust of authorities that probably costs more lives than whatever biased or otherwise hopelessly poorly trained & prepared cops.

    I despair that there is no way to improve things. Of course the agitators aren't really aiming to improve things, but rather divide and reap power. The situation is clear with every gesture, demolished memorial, purged chapter of shared history that there is no common sense of ownership & support for our civic institutions. With no shared constituting history, no stake in current institutions (even that last lowest common denominator, the NFL, is being deconstructed) there is no stake in the future or shared destiny.

    “same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. ”

    white flight = get the heck away from negros
    gentrification = take back good real estate the negros collectively squandered

    Read More
    • Replies: @whorefinder
    The Great Migration created little beyond dense no-go zones.
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  36. Art Deco says:
    @Anonym
    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980. From that perspective, comparisons with the previous year in terms of talking about trends is most meaningful, and it gets less meaningful the further back you take it (to a point).

    Over the period running from 1992 to 2014, the homicide rate declined pari passu with the rate of aggravated assault.

    Read More
    • Replies: @biz
    I agree that agrivated assault is the correct rate to really get a handle on the amount of street violence, because the murder rate is too tied up with advances in medical care and the attempted murder rate is too tied up with changes in plea deals.

    But the most telling stat would be the agrivated assault rate adjusted for the fraction of the population that is 15-30. That was definitely higher in 1980.
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  37. Sandmich says:
    @whorefinder
    I think the Corporate Left is so sick they think these deaths are a good thing---will make for fewer blacks they need to displace to buy up that city real estate. And also creates a crisis that will allow for more draconian measures such as eminent domain.

    "This (diverse) neighborhood is so beset by crime, only by taking these crack houses free of charge and letting corporations protect them can we save them!"

    I'm a racist and I don't want blacks killing each other. This is like how I don't like open or toleration of homosexulity but I don't want gays tossed off buildings, tortured, or stoned to death, yet the Left wants to import a culture that wants that wholeheartedly. But I guess that makes me a inhuman evil person and the Leftists on the side of angels.

    Sick.

    I agree, I think confining inner city blacks to some sort of unattended gladiator contest is bad all around. And yet..when given the chance, when whites can vote for people who pay lip service to the opioids crisis they vote for them; when blacks get a chance to vote for someone who pays lip service to the murder/crime crisis they vote for…the other guy.

    The only obvious answer is internal cononialization by disinfranchising inner city voters, but that’s a non-starter, so it’s murder-burgs they shall have.

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  38. newrouter says:

    ot fun research project: analysis of Harlem NYC real estate ownership?

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  39. anon says: • Disclaimer

    The part that is missing.

    I took the liberty of guessing at the breakdown of Chicago murders by race. This is based on a general feel of the distribution by race from looking at lists of victims. I have gone through monthly lists of victims and assigned race based on photos and names. Some sources list race but are not very accurate. In over 90 percent of the instances, there is very little doubt regarding classification. There is a small but non trivial residual.

    Chcago 2015
    Group A 359
    Group B 91
    Group C 29

    Chicago 2017
    Group A 574
    Group B 145
    Group C 46

    Change
    Group A 215
    Group B 55
    Group C 17

    To roughly estimate the rate per 100,000 — just divide by 10. Each group is close enough to a million to get the picture. Group A’s rate increased from 36 to 57.

    I don’t like fake statistics — but this is a rough, pro forma illustration of what the data might look like if it were available.

    Per the authoritative source, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/black-people-killed-by-police-america_us_577da633e4b0c590f7e7fb17

    Cops killed 258 blacks in 2016.

    Compared to a hypothetical 215 Ferguson Effect blacks in Chicago alone.

    This is one reason that it is easier to simply remove race from crime aggregate statistics. However awful the Chicago victims and however innocent the blacks killed by police — it isn’t difficult to conclude that the former group is a lot less deserving than the later.

    10% of them are likely to have been collateral damage – having caught a stray.

    I am only suggesting that the INCREASE in black homicides in one year from Ferguson effect in Chicago is equivalent to every single black killed by police in that year in the nation.

    No wonder they don’t want to talk about it.

    A conversation about race where the numbers speak for themselves and constitute hate speech.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    So white murder victims are up over 50% from 2015 to 2017 in Chicago. That's really bad.
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  40. @anon
    The part that is missing.

    I took the liberty of guessing at the breakdown of Chicago murders by race. This is based on a general feel of the distribution by race from looking at lists of victims. I have gone through monthly lists of victims and assigned race based on photos and names. Some sources list race but are not very accurate. In over 90 percent of the instances, there is very little doubt regarding classification. There is a small but non trivial residual.

    Chcago 2015
    Group A 359
    Group B 91
    Group C 29

    Chicago 2017
    Group A 574
    Group B 145
    Group C 46

    Change
    Group A 215
    Group B 55
    Group C 17

    To roughly estimate the rate per 100,000 -- just divide by 10. Each group is close enough to a million to get the picture. Group A's rate increased from 36 to 57.

    I don't like fake statistics -- but this is a rough, pro forma illustration of what the data might look like if it were available.

    Per the authoritative source, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/black-people-killed-by-police-america_us_577da633e4b0c590f7e7fb17

    Cops killed 258 blacks in 2016.

    Compared to a hypothetical 215 Ferguson Effect blacks in Chicago alone.

    This is one reason that it is easier to simply remove race from crime aggregate statistics. However awful the Chicago victims and however innocent the blacks killed by police -- it isn't difficult to conclude that the former group is a lot less deserving than the later.

    10% of them are likely to have been collateral damage - having caught a stray.

    I am only suggesting that the INCREASE in black homicides in one year from Ferguson effect in Chicago is equivalent to every single black killed by police in that year in the nation.

    No wonder they don't want to talk about it.

    A conversation about race where the numbers speak for themselves and constitute hate speech.

    So white murder victims are up over 50% from 2015 to 2017 in Chicago. That’s really bad.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    http://heyjackass.com/2015-race-of-victim/

    http://heyjackass.com/2016-race-of-victim-assailant/

    The 'Hey Jackass' figures are consistent with mine. There change, year over year for black victims is 225 vs my 215. Surprised it is that close since there are all sorts of differences between FBI data and crowd sources lists. Although I am not surprised they are in general agreement.

    The FBI data makes it possible to compare with other areas and includes population data that is probably solid.

    , @anon
    Yes but the increase is roughly equal to a summer weekend.

    An increase from 20 to 40 ....

    I wouldn't want to put too much emphasis on the percentage change given the relatively small numbers.

    A couple were from stray bullets/collateral damage. There was an elderly white/jewish murder/suicide in Hyde Park. Some of the whites were the usual suspects. I looked at most of the white homicides and most of them didn't appear to be particularly shocking.

    However, homicide is still rare -- and for each homicide, there are 5 to 10 shootings, hundreds of robberies, etc. It is a concern because of the general increase in disorder which is subject to contagion.
    , @anon
    After 2 bad comments .... here is a better answer.

    The Black statistics are based on a lot of data. Seemingly endless lists of Black victims in Englewood and Austin. The White statistics are based on much less data.

    Even worse, some groupings are 'Whites and Others' which picks up some noise. The website Hey Jackass has new stats up for 2017, and the results show a surprising reduction. http://heyjackass.com/2017-race-of-victimassailant/
    Some of this may be due to more emphasis to the 'unknown' category -- some of which may have been classified as white.

    The 14 white and other homicides looks a lot like 2015. I think it is more like 10-12 Whites. And these are mostly like the lists of homicides seen in areas without a lot of blacks. Domestics, love gone bad, and one offs are pretty common among rare homicides.

    As far as 2016/2015 -- the University of Chicago data shows Whites are 5% vs 4% of the total over the previous year with the total up 50%. So -- it was a bad year. 2017 is getting back to the 2015 levels which is a fairly typical White rate of 2-3 per 100,000. Vs 10 per 100,000 for motor vehicle accidents.

    Here is a sample of the 2017 White Homicides:

    1. Family dispute:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170816/canaryville/donald-mcnamara-shooting-death-murder-charges-86-year-old-killed-in-home

    2. Typical tragedy:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170809/west-town/west-town-shooting-kills-man-walking-down-street-police-say

    3. Unusual to count it. Officer dies 30 years after being shot on duty:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170907/south-shore/officer-shot-line-of-duty-1988-dies-after-long-battle-with-injuries

    It is the correct thing to do, but doubt if it is typically done.

    4. Truly bizarre:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170802/river-north/northwestern-professor-wanted-for-murder-wyndham-lathem-james-cornell-duranleau

    Homicide in Chicago is a Black thing. Plus Hispanic, of course. So much so that most of the homicides in white neighborhoods are blacks shooting other blacks.

    The other unexpected result is that Hispanics/Mexicans are getting in on the action. This year, there have been more gang shootings with multiple victims. That runs up their totals fast.

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  41. Wouldn’t the best move for the Trump Administration to take be continuing these Late Obama Age policing policies? At first this might seem counterintuitive, or maybe even insane, but think about it like this:

    1.) The people who are most affected by these murders don’t want increased policing or a change of policy. For whatever reason, they’re completely happy with the situation as is.

    2.) This is only affecting certain areas of certain cities; it’s not a widespread phenomenon.

    3.) The MSM is currently downplaying this entire crisis, to the point where they want to make it seem non-existent. Eventually, it’ll reach a breaking point where they’ll have to acknowledge it AND acknowledge that it’s disproportionately affecting black communities. The MSM will then need to confront the facts (or use mental gymnastics that normal people will recognize immediately) of the dangers BLM presents, not to mention the abject failure of the Late Obama Age policies.

    4.) This whole thing will eventually burn itself out once the murderers murder themselves out of existence. We’re going to see massive generational effects soon enough, where the young and the old are the bulk of the black population; the adult population will be depopulated due to murder rates. The challenge after this is to ensure the young generation doesn’t pick up the bad murder habits of the previous one.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I don't agree with your point 4, Al, because the numbers don't work out, even 1000 murders a year out of what, maybe 3/4 million black people in that city (going by 2010 census - just within city limits). At just over 1% fertility, a very low number, you've got (just rounded) 10,000 or so new kids per year. Nope, this won't die out in that manner.

    Keep in mind that not all of the victims were actually part of the bad crowd, so 500 bad seeds get murdered and in that order-of-magnitude more get put away for 10-20 years. It cannot keep up with the factor of 10 more black kids that become thugs during that same year.

    (yeah, this is not precise analysis, of course. Not all the murderers will be put away, many may murder more than one at a time, and who knows exactly how many of the victims are thugs. This is just a round-numbers calculation in my head to see "Does It Make Sense". Unfortunately, and with respect for the rest of your comment, point 4 does not make sense numerically.)

    The only time you get left with significantly and visibly more old/young vs. various-age adult men is during and after a serious war.
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  42. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    So white murder victims are up over 50% from 2015 to 2017 in Chicago. That's really bad.

    http://heyjackass.com/2015-race-of-victim/

    http://heyjackass.com/2016-race-of-victim-assailant/

    The ‘Hey Jackass’ figures are consistent with mine. There change, year over year for black victims is 225 vs my 215. Surprised it is that close since there are all sorts of differences between FBI data and crowd sources lists. Although I am not surprised they are in general agreement.

    The FBI data makes it possible to compare with other areas and includes population data that is probably solid.

    Read More
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  43. JerryC says:
    @Luke Lea
    "I get the impression that Black neighborhoods prefer a more lax style of policing."

    Not if you talk to the mothers and grandmothers. Heather Mac Donald has written about this. They want the gang bangers and drug dealers off the streets.

    In the abstract, maybe they want all those thugs off the street. But whenever the cops arrest a specific gang banger or drug dealer, his grandma and aunties are all “He a good boy, he dindu nuffin. De poleece be racist!”. That’s why we are where we are with this.

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  44. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    So white murder victims are up over 50% from 2015 to 2017 in Chicago. That's really bad.

    Yes but the increase is roughly equal to a summer weekend.

    An increase from 20 to 40 ….

    I wouldn’t want to put too much emphasis on the percentage change given the relatively small numbers.

    A couple were from stray bullets/collateral damage. There was an elderly white/jewish murder/suicide in Hyde Park. Some of the whites were the usual suspects. I looked at most of the white homicides and most of them didn’t appear to be particularly shocking.

    However, homicide is still rare — and for each homicide, there are 5 to 10 shootings, hundreds of robberies, etc. It is a concern because of the general increase in disorder which is subject to contagion.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Concerning your last para., one homicide is a serious concern for the family and friends of the deceased.
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  45. whorefinder says: • Website
    @newrouter
    "same kind of peace & security in their hoods that those who have followed white flight & gentrification can afford. "

    white flight = get the heck away from negros
    gentrification = take back good real estate the negros collectively squandered

    The Great Migration created little beyond dense no-go zones.

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  46. @Pat Boyle
    If I were in molecular genetics or some such field rather than in software development, I would move into the area of human muscular composition. Blacks (West Africans) are better at almost all speed events because they have a predominance of 'fast twitch' muscle fibers whereas whites have 'slow twitch' fibers. So there is a tremendous opportunity for white athletes to get black style legs at which point they will be as fast as the blacks. And of course they will be better behaved.

    So blacks have possibly a very short future in professional sports. When we can have well behaved white athletes with fast twitch leg muscles there will be no room for blacks.

    You’d better stick to software development.

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  47. @Achmed E. Newman
    Feets don't fail me now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4aM4cgIIOY

    You can drop me off on Peachtree, I got to feel that Georgia sun.
    and the women there in Atlanta make you awfully glad you come.
    ... watching those planes.. wish I was on one.


    Apropos of absolutely nothin', except for Little Feat, sorry.

    Those great Little Feat covers were by Neon Park (real name Martin Muller), who also did my all-time favorite album cover, Weasels Ripped My Flesh, for Frank Zappa:

    Read More
    • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @anonguy
    Why is that album cover your favorite?
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Though they're not quite as edgy (get it, edgy?) as the Zappa album cover, Mr. Patrick Byrne of Scotland painted many great covers for Gerry Rafferty, along with his earlier bands, The Humblebees and Steeler's Wheel.

    This song from 1969 was Gerry's tribute to the artist - way before City to City and Snakes & Ladders. There are pictures of his album covers in the video below.

    "Patrick my primitive painter of art,
    you will always and ever be near to my heart.
    I will never cross water, never cross sea.
    We will always be with you, Jock and Ellie and me.

    If in our lifetime we find peace of mind
    we'll remember the bad days that we left behind,
    thinking only of love and what it can bring.
    You paint songs for the children, a song we'll always sing.
    "
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGMy5Q_-9-c

    Beautiful stuff and no man ever had a voice as smooth as Gerry Rafferty.
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  48. Pericles says:

    the homicide rate is still lower than in 1980 at the peak of the Miami Vice powder cocaine wars and in 1991 at the peak of the NWA crack cocaine wars!

    What is needed is a new way to deliver cocaine.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Unmanned autonomous submarines. It'd be a challenge and probably a great class project for senior mechanical engineering students.
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  49. anonguy says:
    @the one they call Desanex
    Those great Little Feat covers were by Neon Park (real name Martin Muller), who also did my all-time favorite album cover, Weasels Ripped My Flesh, for Frank Zappa: https://longgonebutnotforgotten.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/1970_2_weaselsrippedmyflesh.jpg

    Why is that album cover your favorite?

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  50. @Pericles

    the homicide rate is still lower than in 1980 at the peak of the Miami Vice powder cocaine wars and in 1991 at the peak of the NWA crack cocaine wars!

     

    What is needed is a new way to deliver cocaine.

    Unmanned autonomous submarines. It’d be a challenge and probably a great class project for senior mechanical engineering students.

    Read More
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  51. @the one they call Desanex
    Those great Little Feat covers were by Neon Park (real name Martin Muller), who also did my all-time favorite album cover, Weasels Ripped My Flesh, for Frank Zappa: https://longgonebutnotforgotten.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/1970_2_weaselsrippedmyflesh.jpg

    Though they’re not quite as edgy (get it, edgy?) as the Zappa album cover, Mr. Patrick Byrne of Scotland painted many great covers for Gerry Rafferty, along with his earlier bands, The Humblebees and Steeler’s Wheel.

    This song from 1969 was Gerry’s tribute to the artist – way before City to City and Snakes & Ladders. There are pictures of his album covers in the video below.

    Patrick my primitive painter of art,
    you will always and ever be near to my heart.
    I will never cross water, never cross sea.
    We will always be with you, Jock and Ellie and me.

    If in our lifetime we find peace of mind
    we’ll remember the bad days that we left behind,
    thinking only of love and what it can bring.
    You paint songs for the children, a song we’ll always sing.“

    Beautiful stuff and no man ever had a voice as smooth as Gerry Rafferty.

    Read More
    • Replies: @the one they call Desanex
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I never knew of Patrick Byrne, but I do admire those Stealers Wheel and Gerry Rafferty covers. Similarly, the Grateful Dead had a close relationship with artist Rick Griffin. He did the Aoxomoxoa cover and others. Also this one for Man: http://www.djfood.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Man-LP.jpg
    , @jim jones
    I was in Baker Street just the other day
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  52. CK says:
    @JA
    OT But Three-Alarm iSteve Material:

    Someone has created a cross-tabbed database of crimes for which NFL players have been arrested.

    http://nflarrest.com/

    Hard sight to get to. Must be a lot of interest.

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  53. @al-Gharaniq
    Wouldn't the best move for the Trump Administration to take be continuing these Late Obama Age policing policies? At first this might seem counterintuitive, or maybe even insane, but think about it like this:

    1.) The people who are most affected by these murders don't want increased policing or a change of policy. For whatever reason, they're completely happy with the situation as is.

    2.) This is only affecting certain areas of certain cities; it's not a widespread phenomenon.

    3.) The MSM is currently downplaying this entire crisis, to the point where they want to make it seem non-existent. Eventually, it'll reach a breaking point where they'll have to acknowledge it AND acknowledge that it's disproportionately affecting black communities. The MSM will then need to confront the facts (or use mental gymnastics that normal people will recognize immediately) of the dangers BLM presents, not to mention the abject failure of the Late Obama Age policies.

    4.) This whole thing will eventually burn itself out once the murderers murder themselves out of existence. We're going to see massive generational effects soon enough, where the young and the old are the bulk of the black population; the adult population will be depopulated due to murder rates. The challenge after this is to ensure the young generation doesn't pick up the bad murder habits of the previous one.

    I don’t agree with your point 4, Al, because the numbers don’t work out, even 1000 murders a year out of what, maybe 3/4 million black people in that city (going by 2010 census – just within city limits). At just over 1% fertility, a very low number, you’ve got (just rounded) 10,000 or so new kids per year. Nope, this won’t die out in that manner.

    Keep in mind that not all of the victims were actually part of the bad crowd, so 500 bad seeds get murdered and in that order-of-magnitude more get put away for 10-20 years. It cannot keep up with the factor of 10 more black kids that become thugs during that same year.

    (yeah, this is not precise analysis, of course. Not all the murderers will be put away, many may murder more than one at a time, and who knows exactly how many of the victims are thugs. This is just a round-numbers calculation in my head to see “Does It Make Sense”. Unfortunately, and with respect for the rest of your comment, point 4 does not make sense numerically.)

    The only time you get left with significantly and visibly more old/young vs. various-age adult men is during and after a serious war.

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  54. @Achmed E. Newman
    Though they're not quite as edgy (get it, edgy?) as the Zappa album cover, Mr. Patrick Byrne of Scotland painted many great covers for Gerry Rafferty, along with his earlier bands, The Humblebees and Steeler's Wheel.

    This song from 1969 was Gerry's tribute to the artist - way before City to City and Snakes & Ladders. There are pictures of his album covers in the video below.

    "Patrick my primitive painter of art,
    you will always and ever be near to my heart.
    I will never cross water, never cross sea.
    We will always be with you, Jock and Ellie and me.

    If in our lifetime we find peace of mind
    we'll remember the bad days that we left behind,
    thinking only of love and what it can bring.
    You paint songs for the children, a song we'll always sing.
    "
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGMy5Q_-9-c

    Beautiful stuff and no man ever had a voice as smooth as Gerry Rafferty.

    Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I never knew of Patrick Byrne, but I do admire those Stealers Wheel and Gerry Rafferty covers. Similarly, the Grateful Dead had a close relationship with artist Rick Griffin. He did the Aoxomoxoa cover and others. Also this one for Man:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Hey, hey ... clever. I had never heard about that band, "Man". BTW, the Dead's "Dead Set" with the art below looks close to Byrne's type of work, but I'm no art critic. It was painted by one Dennis Larkins:

    http://www.peakstupidity.com/images/post_349C.jpg

    From a post on the death of California.
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  55. @the one they call Desanex
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I never knew of Patrick Byrne, but I do admire those Stealers Wheel and Gerry Rafferty covers. Similarly, the Grateful Dead had a close relationship with artist Rick Griffin. He did the Aoxomoxoa cover and others. Also this one for Man: http://www.djfood.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Man-LP.jpg

    Hey, hey … clever. I had never heard about that band, “Man”. BTW, the Dead’s “Dead Set” with the art below looks close to Byrne’s type of work, but I’m no art critic. It was painted by one Dennis Larkins:

    From a post on the death of California.

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  56. @Anonym
    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980. From that perspective, comparisons with the previous year in terms of talking about trends is most meaningful, and it gets less meaningful the further back you take it (to a point).

    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980.

    The ER medicine is probably better, but at least in Baltimore the bad guys are getting better at killing. The guns used have switched to higher caliber as well as higher capacity. And the folks using the guns are going for more head shots.

    In many places, if you get shot, you are more likely to die than ever before.

    In Baltimore, one of every three people struck by gunfire dies, up from one death in every four shootings the previous decade. It ranks as one of the most lethal of America’s largest cities, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis. Two other cities — Washington and New Orleans — shared the brutal distinction of one in three shootings ending in a homicide in 2015. Like Baltimore, several cities have seen the death grip tighten. In Chicago, one in 10 people died after being shot in 2000; now one in six perishes.

    On the streets, particularly in poor, black neighborhoods, residents are witnessing increasingly deadly tactics. More shooters are aiming for the head and firing multiple rounds into victims.

    The number of fatal head shots in the city rose steadily from about 13 percent two decades ago to 62 percent last year. Meanwhile, the number of cadavers with 10 or more bullets more than doubled in the past decade, according to the Maryland medical examiner’s office, which tallied the bullet wounds at the request of The Sun.

    Now, roughly two-thirds of city homicide victims are either shot in the head or multiple times. Many suffer both fates.

    Guns have also become more deadly, as the weapon of choice for criminals and then law enforcement shifted from the revolver to the semiautomatic pistol, which can fire more bullets without reloading. Nationally, the number of 9 mm and .40-caliber guns taken off the streets surged during the past four years, as seizures of less powerful .22-caliber guns remained relatively flat.

    In Maryland, seizures of 9 mm handguns overtook .22-caliber guns for the first time last year. Most were recovered from Baltimore’s streets, where the saying goes: “Buy every gun that comes through; don’t let it be the gun that kills you.”

    Many of the guns are equipped with extended magazines, allowing a shooter to fire from a distance and “walk down” a victim, continuously firing. The sale of “extendos” with more than 10 rounds are banned in Maryland, where they are prized in street cultures, tucked under belts and into pants as a fashion statement. In Baltimore, police are finding up to 80 shell casings at a single crime scene.

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/shoot-to-kill/

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    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    Thank you for that link. Fascinating article with some surprising statistics in it.
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  57. biz says:
    @Art Deco
    Over the period running from 1992 to 2014, the homicide rate declined pari passu with the rate of aggravated assault.

    I agree that agrivated assault is the correct rate to really get a handle on the amount of street violence, because the murder rate is too tied up with advances in medical care and the attempted murder rate is too tied up with changes in plea deals.

    But the most telling stat would be the agrivated assault rate adjusted for the fraction of the population that is 15-30. That was definitely higher in 1980.

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  58. Travis says:
    @415 reasons
    That's the power of controlling the megaphone. It doesn't matter if your side's policies have had a directly deliterious impact on exactly the social I'll you claim to care about. The media frames the narrative so the heroes (courageous black protesters) and villains (Trump and racist white cops) are very clear, and these data are filler in the back pages of the NYT, boringly covered on 538, and only remarked on in any meaningful way in the City Journal or on iSteve or Brietbart. In the minds of 95% of Americans who don't consume any of that media, they'll never know that the empirical impact of #BlackLivesMatter has demonstrably been thousands of extra black lives lost. It's like it never even happened.

    true…but BLM leaders never cared about statistics, it was a political movement to rile up Blacks to increase their hatred towards whites … with the hope that more Blacks would go to the polls and elect more leftist politicians. But it backfired , as the riots and increased violence resulted in more white Americans voting for GOP candidates. If Putin really wants Trump to win again in 2020 he will be financing BLM to keep the group in the news, with more demonstrations which is likely to inspire more violence against the police and thus ensure another GOP victory in 2020.

    Read More
    • Replies: @415 reasons
    Perhaps I am not cynical enough when I assume that the editorial board at the NYT pumps up BLM because they mistakenly believe that doing so will reduce the number of blacks who are killed.
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  59. Pat Boyle says:
    @Luke Lea
    "There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM 'movement.'"

    Remind me again, why are all those NFL players taking a knee?

    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee? Most of the offenders would be black and that would tend to make the remaining players more white.

    Most of the paying public is white, so such an action is likely to increase profits. No?

    Read More
    • Replies: @guest
    No. Whites are obviously willing to pay to watch blacks play ball. What makes profits on an individual team level is winning. Getting rid of talented black players would hurt that.

    On the league level, profits come from some combination of good entertainment and PR. The NFL has had excellent PR for a while, despite repeated scandals. But like professional baseball with the strike, they may find a bad run of PR hurting their bottom line more than inferior entertainment would have.
    , @Hibernian
    The games would be very low scoring and boring.
    , @Truth
    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee?

    Because they are signed to CONTRACTS, DUMMY, and they would have to pay them until the end of the season for NOT PLAYING. Then concurrently pay the guy who takes his place for playing.

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  60. MarcB. says:

    The same crime stat was being touted back in the early 1990′s as urban gang violence was spreading into the US interior. This proposes that a spike in the national murder rate is a major concern only after it reaches or exceeds the high water mark of the worst time in national history. It’s telling that the same methodology isn’t applied to the current “epidemic” of White cops shooting of black male suspects.

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  61. Travis says:

    the incarceration rate for males in more than 3 times higher today than in 1980 …despite mass incarceration we still observe a much higher murder rate in America than in Europe. Need to find out the reason for this.

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  62. jim jones says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    Though they're not quite as edgy (get it, edgy?) as the Zappa album cover, Mr. Patrick Byrne of Scotland painted many great covers for Gerry Rafferty, along with his earlier bands, The Humblebees and Steeler's Wheel.

    This song from 1969 was Gerry's tribute to the artist - way before City to City and Snakes & Ladders. There are pictures of his album covers in the video below.

    "Patrick my primitive painter of art,
    you will always and ever be near to my heart.
    I will never cross water, never cross sea.
    We will always be with you, Jock and Ellie and me.

    If in our lifetime we find peace of mind
    we'll remember the bad days that we left behind,
    thinking only of love and what it can bring.
    You paint songs for the children, a song we'll always sing.
    "
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGMy5Q_-9-c

    Beautiful stuff and no man ever had a voice as smooth as Gerry Rafferty.

    I was in Baker Street just the other day

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  63. Sajmon says:
    @newrouter
    Hard Data, Hollow Protests
    FBI crime figures paint a very different picture of crime and policing than this weekend’s demonstrations suggest.

    Heather Mac Donald

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/hard-data-hollow-protests-15458.html

    Heather Mac Donald wrote:

    “Among all homicide suspects whose race was known, white killers of blacks numbered only 243.”

    It’s impossible. Jared Taylor and Colin Flahery were able to find only four (4) white on black murders, killed by three perps, for the whole 2014:

    https://www.hoplofobia.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Memorial_Wall_2014.pdf

    Again: how is it posible for whites to kill 243 blacks in 2016? Is it because Hispanics are coded as white suspects?

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  64. Spud Boy says:

    The murder rate is down since 1980 for one very simple reason: cell phones allow people much faster access to emergency medical care.

    I think if you were to look at shooting instances instead of murder, the picture would be considerably more bleak.
    .
    .

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    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    This is a perennial horse that gets ritually beaten to death on iSteve.

    No, cell phones are not "one simple reason". The GWOT lit a rocket under trauma medicine. That's your reason .
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  65. pgbh says:

    I’m curious, has any remotely mainstream outlet ever pointed out that while our murder rate has declined, it’s still far above that of most first-world countries?

    Has anyone ever said “The US has almost triple Canada’s murder rate – why are we willing to settle for this?”

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    • Replies: @anonguy

    I’m curious, has any remotely mainstream outlet ever pointed out that while our murder rate has declined, it’s still far above that of most first-world countries?

    Has anyone ever said “The US has almost triple Canada’s murder rate – why are we willing to settle for this?”
     
    I'm wondering why nobody is wondering why we are perfectly happy to allow 40k deaths in car accidents every year without anyone taking much notice/care, just a cost of doing business every year in America.
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  66. @Travis
    true...but BLM leaders never cared about statistics, it was a political movement to rile up Blacks to increase their hatred towards whites ... with the hope that more Blacks would go to the polls and elect more leftist politicians. But it backfired , as the riots and increased violence resulted in more white Americans voting for GOP candidates. If Putin really wants Trump to win again in 2020 he will be financing BLM to keep the group in the news, with more demonstrations which is likely to inspire more violence against the police and thus ensure another GOP victory in 2020.

    Perhaps I am not cynical enough when I assume that the editorial board at the NYT pumps up BLM because they mistakenly believe that doing so will reduce the number of blacks who are killed.

    Read More
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  67. guest says:
    @Pat Boyle
    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee? Most of the offenders would be black and that would tend to make the remaining players more white.

    Most of the paying public is white, so such an action is likely to increase profits. No?

    No. Whites are obviously willing to pay to watch blacks play ball. What makes profits on an individual team level is winning. Getting rid of talented black players would hurt that.

    On the league level, profits come from some combination of good entertainment and PR. The NFL has had excellent PR for a while, despite repeated scandals. But like professional baseball with the strike, they may find a bad run of PR hurting their bottom line more than inferior entertainment would have.

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  68. guest says:
    @dwb
    I know that your question is meant to be rhetorical, but of course no.

    There is no way that the press want the rise in violence to be attributed in any way to the BLM "movement." Which is not ever to be confused with violence or anti-police activity.

    It's all about obtaining "justice and equality."

    But setting the sarcasm to the side, the problem is even worse than that. While your hypothetical about Trump and speeding would surely bring immediate correlation, at least the correlation would be based in some reality.

    Recall the hysteria that got the whole BLM gang going to begin with - a "rash" in police violence against black "youths."

    That was not even based in data. People looking into it (Snopes included) have shown that police killings are actually DOWN, and that, when adjusting for all the variables, police are far more likely to kill white male young people than black, the "narrative" remained that there was some existential treat to black men under 30.

    And it continues to this day, despite numerical evidence that stands to the contrary.

    The BLM “movement” kicked off the year following the Martyrdom of St. Trayvon of the Skittles, which coincidentally became a cause celebre of the MSM the summer before Obama’s reelection. It was more about the long-standing bad blood between the cops and black neighborhoods where civilization fears to raise its head than statistics. But it was even more about electoral politics than bad blood.

    When the Gentle Giant and Freddie Gray died in subsequent years, they were ready to go. But the summer before the coronation of Queen Hillary, woo-boy, they went Al-Queda on us. Which was too far, even for them. People noticed, and no misunderstanding of the reality of policing was enough to let them stomach it.

    The plan, obviously, was to drum up black turnout like St. Trayvon, the Son Obama Never Had, did in 2012. Instead, we saw Dallas under siege, and BLM was as unwelcome nationally as Nazis in Charlottesville. I’m surprised the “movement” didn’t disappear from the national spotlight, or at least change its name.

    But they’re still thought useful, even if Hillary lost partly because of them. They’re currently helping the NFL commit suicide, and hopefully will hand ever more victories to the right.

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  69. guest says:
    @Jim Don Bob
    And in other news, worldwide poverty is way down since, I dunno, 1800?

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

    This shite is completely retarded.

    I think it’s more the electrical and internal combustion engine revolutions of the turn of the 20th century than the industrial revolution of a previous century that truly altered global poverty levels. That and the so-called Green Revolution, of course.

    Which just means all the more misery is to come when Western Civilization either collapses or can’t deal with the problems it creates anymore.

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  70. Hibernian says:
    @whorefinder
    I think the Corporate Left is so sick they think these deaths are a good thing---will make for fewer blacks they need to displace to buy up that city real estate. And also creates a crisis that will allow for more draconian measures such as eminent domain.

    "This (diverse) neighborhood is so beset by crime, only by taking these crack houses free of charge and letting corporations protect them can we save them!"

    I'm a racist and I don't want blacks killing each other. This is like how I don't like open or toleration of homosexulity but I don't want gays tossed off buildings, tortured, or stoned to death, yet the Left wants to import a culture that wants that wholeheartedly. But I guess that makes me a inhuman evil person and the Leftists on the side of angels.

    Sick.

    “I’m a racist and I don’t want blacks killing each other.”

    That’s a statement an eccentric Mississipian might have made to a Northern professor or reporter in 1948.

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    • Replies: @whorefinder
    I'm sick of trying to fight the charge of "racism." Racism just means that you noticed a pattern based on race or ethnicity. There's nothing inherently good or bad about it, it's just noticing a pattern. But nowadays calling something "racism" or "racist" is conclusive proof the person/thing is a liar and beyond evil and must be destroyed; it's a leap of idiocy and violence.

    I've taken to responding when accused of saying "racist" things that , "Yes, it's racist....and true."

    That kind of freezes people in their harrangues because they've been taught that anything racist=false and a lie and full of lying hate. When faced with the mental conundrum that something might be racist and yet also true, they have a large moment of cognitive dissonance that is quite interesting to behold; many freeze as you see their minds working around it, and then try after a moment to scream "racist!" again, to which I keep repeating it, and they either meltdown or walk away.
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  71. Hibernian says:
    @prosa123
    While statistics aren't anywhere close to complete, the best estimate is that between 25% and 50% of people shot by police are mentally ill, usually with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. This is vastly in excess of their total share of the population.

    My guess is that a fair number are suicidal and intent on suicide-by-cop.

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  72. Hibernian says:
    @Anonym
    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980. From that perspective, comparisons with the previous year in terms of talking about trends is most meaningful, and it gets less meaningful the further back you take it (to a point).

    This makes sense; a similar phenomenon in the military is a good part of the reason why combat deaths in the GWOT are much lower than those in Vietnam.

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  73. Hibernian says:
    @Pat Boyle
    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee? Most of the offenders would be black and that would tend to make the remaining players more white.

    Most of the paying public is white, so such an action is likely to increase profits. No?

    The games would be very low scoring and boring.

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  74. Hibernian says:
    @anon
    Yes but the increase is roughly equal to a summer weekend.

    An increase from 20 to 40 ....

    I wouldn't want to put too much emphasis on the percentage change given the relatively small numbers.

    A couple were from stray bullets/collateral damage. There was an elderly white/jewish murder/suicide in Hyde Park. Some of the whites were the usual suspects. I looked at most of the white homicides and most of them didn't appear to be particularly shocking.

    However, homicide is still rare -- and for each homicide, there are 5 to 10 shootings, hundreds of robberies, etc. It is a concern because of the general increase in disorder which is subject to contagion.

    Concerning your last para., one homicide is a serious concern for the family and friends of the deceased.

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  75. @Mark Roulo

    One would suspect that there are better techniques available to prevent loss of life from gunshots 37 years after 1980. The amount of criminally inflicted gunshot incidents per gun death is likely higher now than it was in 1980.
     
    The ER medicine is probably better, but at least in Baltimore the bad guys are getting better at killing. The guns used have switched to higher caliber as well as higher capacity. And the folks using the guns are going for more head shots.


    In many places, if you get shot, you are more likely to die than ever before.

    In Baltimore, one of every three people struck by gunfire dies, up from one death in every four shootings the previous decade. It ranks as one of the most lethal of America's largest cities, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis. Two other cities — Washington and New Orleans — shared the brutal distinction of one in three shootings ending in a homicide in 2015. Like Baltimore, several cities have seen the death grip tighten. In Chicago, one in 10 people died after being shot in 2000; now one in six perishes.

    :

    On the streets, particularly in poor, black neighborhoods, residents are witnessing increasingly deadly tactics. More shooters are aiming for the head and firing multiple rounds into victims.

    :

    The number of fatal head shots in the city rose steadily from about 13 percent two decades ago to 62 percent last year. Meanwhile, the number of cadavers with 10 or more bullets more than doubled in the past decade, according to the Maryland medical examiner’s office, which tallied the bullet wounds at the request of The Sun.

    Now, roughly two-thirds of city homicide victims are either shot in the head or multiple times. Many suffer both fates.

    Guns have also become more deadly, as the weapon of choice for criminals and then law enforcement shifted from the revolver to the semiautomatic pistol, which can fire more bullets without reloading. Nationally, the number of 9 mm and .40-caliber guns taken off the streets surged during the past four years, as seizures of less powerful .22-caliber guns remained relatively flat.

    In Maryland, seizures of 9 mm handguns overtook .22-caliber guns for the first time last year. Most were recovered from Baltimore's streets, where the saying goes: “Buy every gun that comes through; don't let it be the gun that kills you.”

    Many of the guns are equipped with extended magazines, allowing a shooter to fire from a distance and “walk down” a victim, continuously firing. The sale of “extendos” with more than 10 rounds are banned in Maryland, where they are prized in street cultures, tucked under belts and into pants as a fashion statement. In Baltimore, police are finding up to 80 shell casings at a single crime scene.

     

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/shoot-to-kill/

    Thank you for that link. Fascinating article with some surprising statistics in it.

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  76. anonguy says:
    @pgbh
    I'm curious, has any remotely mainstream outlet ever pointed out that while our murder rate has declined, it's still far above that of most first-world countries?

    Has anyone ever said "The US has almost triple Canada's murder rate - why are we willing to settle for this?"

    I’m curious, has any remotely mainstream outlet ever pointed out that while our murder rate has declined, it’s still far above that of most first-world countries?

    Has anyone ever said “The US has almost triple Canada’s murder rate – why are we willing to settle for this?”

    I’m wondering why nobody is wondering why we are perfectly happy to allow 40k deaths in car accidents every year without anyone taking much notice/care, just a cost of doing business every year in America.

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  77. Truth says:
    @Pat Boyle
    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee? Most of the offenders would be black and that would tend to make the remaining players more white.

    Most of the paying public is white, so such an action is likely to increase profits. No?

    Why not simply fire anyone who takes a knee?

    Because they are signed to CONTRACTS, DUMMY, and they would have to pay them until the end of the season for NOT PLAYING. Then concurrently pay the guy who takes his place for playing.

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  78. Ben Frank says:

    How insane that people are protesting against police while these mass killings go on.

    “On July 7, 2016, Micah Xavier Johnson ambushed and fired upon a group of police officers in Dallas, Texas, killing five officers and injuring nine others.”

    Since 2016 in Kansas City, Missouri, Fredrick Demond Scott apparently murdered 5 older white men, usually with a bullet to the back of the head.

    “On April 18, 2017, a shooting spree occurred in Fresno, California, leaving three men dead. The prime suspect, identified as Kori Ali Muhammad … motivated by racial hatred directed towards white people”

    Emanuel Kidega Samson killed one and wounded 6 others in a Nashville, Tennessee church 9/24/17.

    and on and on…

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  79. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    So white murder victims are up over 50% from 2015 to 2017 in Chicago. That's really bad.

    After 2 bad comments …. here is a better answer.

    The Black statistics are based on a lot of data. Seemingly endless lists of Black victims in Englewood and Austin. The White statistics are based on much less data.

    Even worse, some groupings are ‘Whites and Others’ which picks up some noise. The website Hey Jackass has new stats up for 2017, and the results show a surprising reduction. http://heyjackass.com/2017-race-of-victimassailant/
    Some of this may be due to more emphasis to the ‘unknown’ category — some of which may have been classified as white.

    The 14 white and other homicides looks a lot like 2015. I think it is more like 10-12 Whites. And these are mostly like the lists of homicides seen in areas without a lot of blacks. Domestics, love gone bad, and one offs are pretty common among rare homicides.

    As far as 2016/2015 — the University of Chicago data shows Whites are 5% vs 4% of the total over the previous year with the total up 50%. So — it was a bad year. 2017 is getting back to the 2015 levels which is a fairly typical White rate of 2-3 per 100,000. Vs 10 per 100,000 for motor vehicle accidents.

    Here is a sample of the 2017 White Homicides:

    1. Family dispute:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170816/canaryville/donald-mcnamara-shooting-death-murder-charges-86-year-old-killed-in-home

    2. Typical tragedy:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170809/west-town/west-town-shooting-kills-man-walking-down-street-police-say

    3. Unusual to count it. Officer dies 30 years after being shot on duty:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170907/south-shore/officer-shot-line-of-duty-1988-dies-after-long-battle-with-injuries

    It is the correct thing to do, but doubt if it is typically done.

    4. Truly bizarre:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170802/river-north/northwestern-professor-wanted-for-murder-wyndham-lathem-james-cornell-duranleau

    Homicide in Chicago is a Black thing. Plus Hispanic, of course. So much so that most of the homicides in white neighborhoods are blacks shooting other blacks.

    The other unexpected result is that Hispanics/Mexicans are getting in on the action. This year, there have been more gang shootings with multiple victims. That runs up their totals fast.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Are Mexicans taking over the drug business in Chicago, like the cartel leader implies in the TV show "Ozark"?
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  80. @anon
    After 2 bad comments .... here is a better answer.

    The Black statistics are based on a lot of data. Seemingly endless lists of Black victims in Englewood and Austin. The White statistics are based on much less data.

    Even worse, some groupings are 'Whites and Others' which picks up some noise. The website Hey Jackass has new stats up for 2017, and the results show a surprising reduction. http://heyjackass.com/2017-race-of-victimassailant/
    Some of this may be due to more emphasis to the 'unknown' category -- some of which may have been classified as white.

    The 14 white and other homicides looks a lot like 2015. I think it is more like 10-12 Whites. And these are mostly like the lists of homicides seen in areas without a lot of blacks. Domestics, love gone bad, and one offs are pretty common among rare homicides.

    As far as 2016/2015 -- the University of Chicago data shows Whites are 5% vs 4% of the total over the previous year with the total up 50%. So -- it was a bad year. 2017 is getting back to the 2015 levels which is a fairly typical White rate of 2-3 per 100,000. Vs 10 per 100,000 for motor vehicle accidents.

    Here is a sample of the 2017 White Homicides:

    1. Family dispute:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170816/canaryville/donald-mcnamara-shooting-death-murder-charges-86-year-old-killed-in-home

    2. Typical tragedy:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170809/west-town/west-town-shooting-kills-man-walking-down-street-police-say

    3. Unusual to count it. Officer dies 30 years after being shot on duty:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170907/south-shore/officer-shot-line-of-duty-1988-dies-after-long-battle-with-injuries

    It is the correct thing to do, but doubt if it is typically done.

    4. Truly bizarre:

    https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170802/river-north/northwestern-professor-wanted-for-murder-wyndham-lathem-james-cornell-duranleau

    Homicide in Chicago is a Black thing. Plus Hispanic, of course. So much so that most of the homicides in white neighborhoods are blacks shooting other blacks.

    The other unexpected result is that Hispanics/Mexicans are getting in on the action. This year, there have been more gang shootings with multiple victims. That runs up their totals fast.

    Are Mexicans taking over the drug business in Chicago, like the cartel leader implies in the TV show “Ozark”?

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    My guess is that the police are so disconcerted with the black crime explosion that they simply don't have the capacity to deal with Mexican gangs.

    The slain men were thought to be members of the Satan’s Disciples street gang, with the assault rifle gunfire possibly carried out by Latin Saints members in retaliation for a Thursday night shooting in the Back of the Yards neighborhood, Lopez said.
     

    Satan’s Disciples members are thought to have returned fire once again in a Saturday morning shooting that left two men wounded, according to the alderman, who said the ongoing gang war has been fueled on social media.

    “The revolving door of retaliation keeps rolling,” Lopez said. “They are acting like this is a game. This is a blood sport for them.”
     

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/police-4-people-shot-dead-in-brighton-park/

    The police were very effective in tamping down large gang homicides in the past. A 'honor killing' mentality is always going to fill any vacuum. It is clearly a breakdown in the capacity of the police to maintain control. One excuse for the pre 2016 homicide problem was that large gangs were disbanded and smaller, poorly organized street crews were uncontrollable.

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  81. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    Are Mexicans taking over the drug business in Chicago, like the cartel leader implies in the TV show "Ozark"?

    My guess is that the police are so disconcerted with the black crime explosion that they simply don’t have the capacity to deal with Mexican gangs.

    The slain men were thought to be members of the Satan’s Disciples street gang, with the assault rifle gunfire possibly carried out by Latin Saints members in retaliation for a Thursday night shooting in the Back of the Yards neighborhood, Lopez said.

    Satan’s Disciples members are thought to have returned fire once again in a Saturday morning shooting that left two men wounded, according to the alderman, who said the ongoing gang war has been fueled on social media.

    “The revolving door of retaliation keeps rolling,” Lopez said. “They are acting like this is a game. This is a blood sport for them.”

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/police-4-people-shot-dead-in-brighton-park/

    The police were very effective in tamping down large gang homicides in the past. A ‘honor killing’ mentality is always going to fill any vacuum. It is clearly a breakdown in the capacity of the police to maintain control. One excuse for the pre 2016 homicide problem was that large gangs were disbanded and smaller, poorly organized street crews were uncontrollable.

    Read More
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  82. By definition, it’s always lower than a peak.

    Read More
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  83. whorefinder says: • Website
    @Hibernian
    "I’m a racist and I don’t want blacks killing each other."

    That's a statement an eccentric Mississipian might have made to a Northern professor or reporter in 1948.

    I’m sick of trying to fight the charge of “racism.” Racism just means that you noticed a pattern based on race or ethnicity. There’s nothing inherently good or bad about it, it’s just noticing a pattern. But nowadays calling something “racism” or “racist” is conclusive proof the person/thing is a liar and beyond evil and must be destroyed; it’s a leap of idiocy and violence.

    I’ve taken to responding when accused of saying “racist” things that , “Yes, it’s racist….and true.”

    That kind of freezes people in their harrangues because they’ve been taught that anything racist=false and a lie and full of lying hate. When faced with the mental conundrum that something might be racist and yet also true, they have a large moment of cognitive dissonance that is quite interesting to behold; many freeze as you see their minds working around it, and then try after a moment to scream “racist!” again, to which I keep repeating it, and they either meltdown or walk away.

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  84. @Spud Boy
    The murder rate is down since 1980 for one very simple reason: cell phones allow people much faster access to emergency medical care.

    I think if you were to look at shooting instances instead of murder, the picture would be considerably more bleak.
    .
    .

    This is a perennial horse that gets ritually beaten to death on iSteve.

    No, cell phones are not “one simple reason”. The GWOT lit a rocket under trauma medicine. That’s your reason .

    Read More
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