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16 Months of Trump, 15 Months of Declining Murders in Chicago
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From MSN:

Chicago officials laud 15th consecutive month of declining gun violence

By Ray Sanchez and Ryan Young, CNN 11 hrs ago

CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 30: It seemed a typical month in the nation’s third largest city. …

The occasional spasms of violence, though, are not keeping Chicago officials from lauding the 15th consecutive month of declining gun violence in a city frequently targeted by President Donald Trump as a symbol of rampant crime.

“This is a Trump-free zone,” Mayor Rahm Emanuel told CNN this week. “We have facts. What matters … is what happens on the street.”

The city has had 52 fewer murders and 229 fewer shootings through the end of May — a 21% drop in both categories — compared to the first five months of 2017, according to the Chicago Police Department.

May alone saw a 21% decline in murders compared to last year — from 58 to 46 — along with a 5% drop in shooting incidents, police said.

So far this year, Chicago has had 500 fewer shooting victims than the same period in 2016, police said.

The city has made considerable gains over the past year. It saw a 16% drop in murders from 2016 — the deadliest year in nearly two decades, with 771 murders — to 2017, when there were 650.

Uh, how long has Trump been President, Rahm? Sixteen months?

While the data suggest a downward trend in both murders and shootings, crime tends to pick up with warmer weather, said Arthur Lurigio, a professor of psychology and criminal justice at Loyola University Chicago.

“If this trend continues until Labor Day, Chicago might be on its way to a year with 500 or fewer homicides, which is closer to the normative number of murders in recent history, beginning in 2004 and factoring out 2016 and 2017 as aberrations,” he said.

And why were 2016 and 2017 aberrations? Did it have something to do with all the anti-police changes imposed on Chicago from November 2015 to January 2016 with the backing of the Community Organizer-in-Chief? Changes that the Trump Administration dropped?

From iSteve in March 2016:

Murders Up 84% in Chicago; in Unrelated News, ACLU, White House Cracking Down on Chicago PD for Racism

STEVE SAILER • MARCH 28, 2016 • 700 WORDS • 52 COMMENTS

It’s almost as if the Ferguson Effect were real …

 
• Tags: Ferguson, Homicide 
Hide 81 CommentsLeave a Comment
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  1. When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    1964
    , @res

    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?
     
    That would be an excellent question to have asked Barack Obama.
    , @J.Ross
    Federal bureaucracies (notably the Justice Department but potentially everybody) invade local agencies by promising cash, military hardware, training, and so forth, and alternately they threaten their way in by aggressively investigating disparate impact. In order to get the goods you must agree to adopt their policies. This was yet another huge yet unreported issue under King Obama. It was so big that many local non-aligned populist movements sprang up, ordering their local agency to refuse federal "help" (and, if necessary, return Megaweapon). This part was belatedly reported but without any good explanations: it was presented as a "news of the weird" one-off. You may have heard of the Vermont town that didn't want its police to have an MRAP. This issue overlaps "asset forfeiture" which look into if you haven't.
    Consistently, departments that took the federal poison became problem departments, imitating Israel with, of all the completely unforeseeable factors, authentic Israeli training and its famous risk-minimization doctrine. This was made much worse by these criminals having a big government krysha protecting them from attention. Recall when Albuquerque could no longer be kept out of the news for murdering a surounded, outnumbered and complying homeless man camping in wilderness. The better reports mentioned that the basis of the outrage was that this was hardly the first time.
    It is very illuminating to compare the media hystrionics and bussed-in astroturf rioters of the Black Lives psy-op to the actual problem of undereported, unprotested, federalized and Israelized cops. It's almost tempting to say that the one was worth implementing just to distract from the other, like Obama deciding that gay marriage rights was the issue of our time as he committed impeachable offenses and war crimes.
    , @Pat Boyle
    I live in Oakland. We have no police.

    OK that's an exaggeration the literal fact is that we have only about half the number of police per capita that a normal American city has. Oakland is a majority white city with declining numbers of blacks and increasing numbers of Latinos and Asians.

    We also have a long and solid tradition of having lunatic political leadership. We had Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown as our mayor twice and Ron "The first black commie" Dellums too. Now we have as mayor a woman who tips off the criminals about pending police raids. Our school board gave the world Ebonics and we pay the police so much in salary overtime, benefits and unfunded retirement that we can't afford to hire more than a handful of cops.

    I'm thinking of moving to someplace with better government. Maybe Venezuela.
  2. Maybe a black president just can’t work in America. Culturally, it looks like blacks treat black leaders like junior high school kids treat their substitute teacher. It’s just not the same as when the regular teacher is there, and implicitly solicits their acting up, and acting out.

    Perhaps America’s problem isn’t that whites can’t behave with a black president. It’s the black folks who can’t help but want to take advantage of it.

    Sad!

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Nonsense. Imagine Sheriff David Clarke as president. He would of course be endlessly accused of "cooning", "selling out", "acting white" and other slurs leveled at blacks who expect their fellow blacks to act like civilized human beings, but there would be no Ferguson Effect.
    , @bomag
    It's axiomatic that Black men can discipline other Black men.

    Obama was no disciplinarian. He was an enabler.
  3. @eD
    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    1964

    • LOL: Roderick Spode
    • Replies: @Autochthon
    I take your point, but I'd say that for was cast closer to around 9 May 1865.
  4. • Replies: @Romanian
    They'll still be growing for decades, because of inertia. And, now, with added dysgenics!
  5. @Noticery
    Maybe a black president just can’t work in America. Culturally, it looks like blacks treat black leaders like junior high school kids treat their substitute teacher. It’s just not the same as when the regular teacher is there, and implicitly solicits their acting up, and acting out.

    Perhaps America’s problem isn’t that whites can’t behave with a black president. It’s the black folks who can’t help but want to take advantage of it.

    Sad!

    Nonsense. Imagine Sheriff David Clarke as president. He would of course be endlessly accused of “cooning”, “selling out”, “acting white” and other slurs leveled at blacks who expect their fellow blacks to act like civilized human beings, but there would be no Ferguson Effect.

  6. May alone saw a 21% decline in murders compared to last year — from 58 to 46 — along with a 5% drop in shooting incidents, police said.

    Marksmanship just ain’t what it used to be.

  7. If you follow Mayor Emanuel’s logic that this has nothing to do with Trump, then the question begs to be asked: If these issues were so easily fixed, why weren’t they done earlier, Mayor? Why did the city of Chicago allow hundreds of young black men to be murdered?

    If media outlets were anything more than organs of anti-Republican propaganda, that would be the first thing they would have asked in response to Emanuel’s statement.

  8. If one follows the website heyjackass.com , one might consider the unusually cool weather into early May helped keep the overall murder rate down. Throughout May, Chicago went from lower 50’s to the 80’s and 90’s, and the month ended with 51 murders, a 600+ murder per year pace.

    Trump might have something to do with it, but the weather does as well.

    • Agree: Brutusale
  9. It’s also difficult to know how many homicides are being counted as “death investigations”. Death investigations do not count against the overall murder rate, and is a slick way for compstat to hide total murders for a year or so, before reclassifying them as murders when nobody is looking.

  10. Anon[151] • Disclaimer says:

    Obvious place to check is the ethnicity of the shooters. Did Trump’s immigration crackdown result in fewer illegal Hispanics in Chicago? If so, the decline may be coming entirely from a drop in Hispanic criminals. A data breakdown may reveal something interesting, unless Chicago lumps Hispanics in as white. However, a ‘white’ drop in the murder rate may reveal something as well.

    Another place to check is the Chicago black employment rate. If it’s gone up, it may be that blacks are just too tired from working a job to get into a squabble that results in a shooting, or may have given up working the drug trade for a legitimate job.

    The rate drop may be a combination of both of the above.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    When my family lived there, most brown people with Spanish sounding names were Puerto Ricans, who are usually mulattos or pardos rather than mestizos. Some are clearly what most people would call black.
  11. This reminds me: Has Trump even visited Chicago or indeed Illinois during his presidency? I don’t recall him ever stepping foot there. Could be wrong.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Donald_Trump_Chicago_rally_protest
  12. The NY Times had an article a week or two ago. Chicago police has put in place a massive number of security cameras.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/26/us/chicago-police-surveillance.html

  13. The DOJ under Obama issued a report and the city planned on settling with the DOJ. However under Trump/Sessions the report is being ignored and the DOJ isn’t settling anything. The report was issued DOA. So yea. Its at least partly Trump.https://www.aclu-il.org/en/news/city-chicago-just-entered-unprecedented-agreement-community-groups-police-reform-what-does-mean

  14. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Obvious place to check is the ethnicity of the shooters. Did Trump's immigration crackdown result in fewer illegal Hispanics in Chicago? If so, the decline may be coming entirely from a drop in Hispanic criminals. A data breakdown may reveal something interesting, unless Chicago lumps Hispanics in as white. However, a 'white' drop in the murder rate may reveal something as well.

    Another place to check is the Chicago black employment rate. If it's gone up, it may be that blacks are just too tired from working a job to get into a squabble that results in a shooting, or may have given up working the drug trade for a legitimate job.

    The rate drop may be a combination of both of the above.

    When my family lived there, most brown people with Spanish sounding names were Puerto Ricans, who are usually mulattos or pardos rather than mestizos. Some are clearly what most people would call black.

    • Replies: @Flip
    Hispanics in Chicago are overwhelmingly Mexican these days.
  15. @Noticery
    Maybe a black president just can’t work in America. Culturally, it looks like blacks treat black leaders like junior high school kids treat their substitute teacher. It’s just not the same as when the regular teacher is there, and implicitly solicits their acting up, and acting out.

    Perhaps America’s problem isn’t that whites can’t behave with a black president. It’s the black folks who can’t help but want to take advantage of it.

    Sad!

    It’s axiomatic that Black men can discipline other Black men.

    Obama was no disciplinarian. He was an enabler.

  16. Yet more stabbings in London though, we are still well ahead of NY in murders this year.

  17. @Bragadocious
    This reminds me: Has Trump even visited Chicago or indeed Illinois during his presidency? I don't recall him ever stepping foot there. Could be wrong.
    • Replies: @Bragadocious
    That wasn't during his presidency.
  18. Chicago isn’t listed here: https://www.alarms.org/top-100-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2018/ Chicago seems to take the rap for being the most violent, dystopian place in America but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped. For some reason, Chicago became the whipping boy for crime in America when its really overblown. It has a high murder rate because it is such a large city. It is roughly the same size as Paris.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    Chicago gets its reputation because it typically leads the country in total homicides per year. There have been 1000 people shot already this year. About half the city is a legitimate no go zone after dark. Reports on public transportation thefts and assaults are suppressed, as are the wilding occurrences in downtown. I have seen small scale versions of this first hand. A group of 10 or so "youths" will walk up to a street corner and abruptly stop in front of a group of street crossing pedestrians, creating collisions, and subsequent confusion and anger (chaos) from the normies, which gives the youths and excuse to escalate the situation into vocal and physical intimidation. As a native of the city, I can say that Chicago deserves every bit of hyperbole directed towards it.

    "... but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped."

    Two things: Number 1. Daley started moving blacks out of housing projects almost as soon as he took office back in the late 80's and relocating them to the south suburbs. As I have said before, my wife's childhood town of Park Forest went from a normal middle class town to a section 8 wasteland within one generation because of this. So yes, Cabrini Green is gone and that area is very trendy, but those displaced people didn't just vanish into thin air. It is not unreasonable to contend that those same people took much of their crime with them. Places like Ford Heights, Harvey, Salk Village, and Chicago Heights are about as dangerous as the Chicago neighborhoods of Austin, Garfield Park, and Englewood. So crime might be down, or it might just be spread out.

    Number 2 is Compstat. This "policing tool" is essentially a taxpayer funded bureaucratic experiment on how city halls across the country can manipulate and hide true crime statistics, by reclassifying crimes (homicides are reclassified as death investigations, for example) and delaying the release of information. Chicago has been using it for about 10 years.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/nypd-compstat_n_3587637.html
  19. Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks – a “folie a deux” between trump and his toady squires.

    Let’s look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    • Replies: @Ho'story

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.
     
    Well, at least with that descriptive, you leave readers of your missive with absolutely no other choice but to admit that Trump is indisputably our first black president. You’ve lived to witness the era in which Dr. Martin Luthur King's Dream has finally come to fruition–with our new black President's apparently coming close to Kings record of philandering to boot!

    Doesn’t that make you happy?

    Come on. You know you want to smile! Your President is a boss!
    , @Brutusale
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/8649bfdb2397853fcf21de96b7c24772/tenor.gif?itemid=5285986


    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/spate?s=t
    , @sayless
    ElitistSettler, Trump supporters don't care if he's divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, et cetera. We could see it from a mile away too.

    He's the first president in my lifetime to send up the system, and I've been paying attention since 1967.

    He's not yet a war criminal. Hillary was the other choice.

    , @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    Thanks for confirming the stereotype of a clueless doctor with a head full of useless facts. MDs are the most full-of-faeces profession of them all, save one - lawyers. MDs offer certainty where probabilities are warranted, telling when they should be listening, and reaction instead of thought followed by action.

    Here's the kind of reasoning your thought process leads to. Doctors went on strike in California in the 70's, and the death rate went down. Let's get rid of all the California doctors.
    , @Roderick Spode
    You're missing the point, Doc. All the Sessions JD has to do is nothing. Why don't you re-read comments #13 and #40?
  20. @Almost Missouri
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Donald_Trump_Chicago_rally_protest

    That wasn’t during his presidency.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    You asked if he "ever set foot there?" Answer: sorta.

    During Presidency? Not that I know of.
  21. Anon[851] • Disclaimer says:

    “When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?”

    1. The federal government routinely issues guidelines to local governments suggesting actions to take or not to take in order to avoid government lawsuits and intervention. Hence, Obama’s Department of Education influencing local school disciplinary policies and higher education sexual assault procedures. That’s just one example. There is also the threat of withdrawing federal funding, etc.

    2. I would be willing to bet that crime in other predominantly black/mixed-race cities is back on the decline as well. Since when does Rahm have authority other those areas?

    3. Trump changed the national conversation and put offenders back on notice that they’d be dealt with. No more BLM and antifa pandering.

    It isn’t appropriate for people like Rahm Emmanuel (a guy who served in an auxiliary capacity in the IDF instead of America’s military during the Gulf War) to take credit for the achievements of Donald Trump and the conservative, non-stupid wing of the GOP.

  22. Anon[851] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: CNN compared Trump to a NAZI today.

    They ran a segment entitled “CNN Anchor Unravels Trump’s Hydra of Lies” (or something to that effect) and put it on YouTube. The “hydra” is a reference to Nazi-inspired Marvel supervillians. They did that on purpose – thought they’d sneak it through.

  23. “16 Months of Trump, 15 Months of Declining Murders in Chicago”

    One should really NOTICE this important nugget from the link–Johnson said certain investments, including technology, have helped police tackle crime this year. That includes putting “strategic decision support centers” in neighborhoods that have struggled with violence, he said. Those centers use predictive crime software that helps police commanders decide where to deploy officers. They also provide “additional cameras, gunshot detection systems, and mobile phones to officers in the field who receive real-time notifications and intelligence data at their fingertips,” Chicago police say on their website. The centers are staffed by officers and analysts with the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab. “Officers who used to patrol randomly are now more focused on where to be,” said Kim Smith, a Crime Lab research manager. “Being in the right place at the right time is crucial, especially somewhere like Chicago, where there are ever-changing gang conflicts. … We’re trying to use data to shed some light where your resources are the most effective.”

    “It’s almost as if the Ferguson Effect were real…”

    Almost.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-milwaukee-evidence-is-weak-for-the-ferguson-effect/2015/12/05/716b8dda-8404-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html?utm_term=.51cd60e8f0af

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521730171X?via%3Dihub

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @anon

    “strategic decision support centers”
     
    Chicago has been using increasing technology throughout both the rise and fall of the murder rate. For example, they have used a strategic subject list since 2012.

    Eddie Johnson has stressed for years that they know who the victims and perps will be in a high percentage of murders.

    It takes PhD's to justify ignoring your lying eyes.
  24. @AndrewR
    1964

    I take your point, but I’d say that for was cast closer to around 9 May 1865.

  25. @Anonymous
    When my family lived there, most brown people with Spanish sounding names were Puerto Ricans, who are usually mulattos or pardos rather than mestizos. Some are clearly what most people would call black.

    Hispanics in Chicago are overwhelmingly Mexican these days.

  26. @eD
    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    That would be an excellent question to have asked Barack Obama.

  27. @ElitistSettler
    Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks - a "folie a deux" between trump and his toady squires.

    Let's look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    Well, at least with that descriptive, you leave readers of your missive with absolutely no other choice but to admit that Trump is indisputably our first black president. You’ve lived to witness the era in which Dr. Martin Luthur King’s Dream has finally come to fruition–with our new black President’s apparently coming close to Kings record of philandering to boot!

    Doesn’t that make you happy?

    Come on. You know you want to smile! Your President is a boss!

  28. @ElitistSettler
    Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks - a "folie a deux" between trump and his toady squires.

    Let's look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.
    • Replies: @ElitistSettler
    You'll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.
    , @Anonymous
    I love The Princess Bride. I just checked out the bio of Wallace Shawn on Wikipedia. Dayamn, very impressive. The Putney School; B.A., Harvard (Philosophy, Economics, Politics); Magdalen College, University of Oxford (Latin); taught Latin in Manhattan.
  29. @Brutusale
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/8649bfdb2397853fcf21de96b7c24772/tenor.gif?itemid=5285986


    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/spate?s=t

    You’ll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    You’ll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.
     
    Your blame shifting to Med School is typical 'it is not my fault' i.e., 'I dindu nuffin', but something did indeed do a "terrible number on" your ability to reason.

    You emigrated here from a Sh1tH0le, and now your passionate mission is to make the USA a Sh1tH0le. So you sign up as a leftis ass hat.

    And when your dishonesty, your prevarication, and your dissembling all come back to visit you (you have heard of karma, no?), then you will say "why did such a luminous, harmonious, virtuous version of humanity, such as me, have all these annoyances, maladies, and plagues afflict me? I am a f\/cking MEDICAL DOCTOR you plebes - lick my sores.

    And we will shake our heads, and go back to what we were doing before we heard your squeaky voice shouting from the land of mice.
    , @Brutusale
    Ah, another internet warrior/poet/mage.

    We walk in the garden of your turbulence.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdWO9ozir1Y
  30. The problem of course is that crime hasn’t been decreasing in Chicago for a mere 16 months. Wow, the never ending parade of crediting the current executive with non-sequitor events

    peace talks in Korea

    now decreasing crime rates in chicago

    Having thought it through by simply looking at how the trend has existed suggests, that no the current executive doesn’t have anything to do with decreased criminal trending. Now it is entirely possible that i have not thought this through — but others have.

    https://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2013/12/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf

    https://home.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Gang-Motivated-Murders-1991-2004.pdf

    https://cpdnews.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Reported-Robbery-Incidents-1999-2005.pdf

    https://cpdnews.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Murder-Crime-Trends-Murders-by-Gender-1998-2007.pdf ) an upyick towards the end of 2005.

    https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Chicago-Crime-Trends/s7fd-6eey/data

  31. anon[174] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    "16 Months of Trump, 15 Months of Declining Murders in Chicago"

    One should really NOTICE this important nugget from the link--Johnson said certain investments, including technology, have helped police tackle crime this year. That includes putting "strategic decision support centers" in neighborhoods that have struggled with violence, he said. Those centers use predictive crime software that helps police commanders decide where to deploy officers. They also provide "additional cameras, gunshot detection systems, and mobile phones to officers in the field who receive real-time notifications and intelligence data at their fingertips," Chicago police say on their website. The centers are staffed by officers and analysts with the University of Chicago's Crime Lab. "Officers who used to patrol randomly are now more focused on where to be," said Kim Smith, a Crime Lab research manager. "Being in the right place at the right time is crucial, especially somewhere like Chicago, where there are ever-changing gang conflicts. ... We're trying to use data to shed some light where your resources are the most effective."

    "It’s almost as if the Ferguson Effect were real..."

    Almost.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-milwaukee-evidence-is-weak-for-the-ferguson-effect/2015/12/05/716b8dda-8404-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html?utm_term=.51cd60e8f0af

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521730171X?via%3Dihub

    “strategic decision support centers”

    Chicago has been using increasing technology throughout both the rise and fall of the murder rate. For example, they have used a strategic subject list since 2012.

    Eddie Johnson has stressed for years that they know who the victims and perps will be in a high percentage of murders.

    It takes PhD’s to justify ignoring your lying eyes.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump's presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.
  32. @Mike Zwick
    Chicago isn't listed here: https://www.alarms.org/top-100-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2018/ Chicago seems to take the rap for being the most violent, dystopian place in America but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped. For some reason, Chicago became the whipping boy for crime in America when its really overblown. It has a high murder rate because it is such a large city. It is roughly the same size as Paris.

    Chicago gets its reputation because it typically leads the country in total homicides per year. There have been 1000 people shot already this year. About half the city is a legitimate no go zone after dark. Reports on public transportation thefts and assaults are suppressed, as are the wilding occurrences in downtown. I have seen small scale versions of this first hand. A group of 10 or so “youths” will walk up to a street corner and abruptly stop in front of a group of street crossing pedestrians, creating collisions, and subsequent confusion and anger (chaos) from the normies, which gives the youths and excuse to escalate the situation into vocal and physical intimidation. As a native of the city, I can say that Chicago deserves every bit of hyperbole directed towards it.

    “… but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped.”

    Two things: Number 1. Daley started moving blacks out of housing projects almost as soon as he took office back in the late 80’s and relocating them to the south suburbs. As I have said before, my wife’s childhood town of Park Forest went from a normal middle class town to a section 8 wasteland within one generation because of this. So yes, Cabrini Green is gone and that area is very trendy, but those displaced people didn’t just vanish into thin air. It is not unreasonable to contend that those same people took much of their crime with them. Places like Ford Heights, Harvey, Salk Village, and Chicago Heights are about as dangerous as the Chicago neighborhoods of Austin, Garfield Park, and Englewood. So crime might be down, or it might just be spread out.

    Number 2 is Compstat. This “policing tool” is essentially a taxpayer funded bureaucratic experiment on how city halls across the country can manipulate and hide true crime statistics, by reclassifying crimes (homicides are reclassified as death investigations, for example) and delaying the release of information. Chicago has been using it for about 10 years.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/nypd-compstat_n_3587637.html

    • Replies: @Aardvark
    I believe I had read before that in other countries they used assorted tactics to distort crime reporting stats. For example it was alleged in Japan that if someone had shot four people in an apartment, it might get reported as 1 homicide 3 suicide. In England it was alleged that if multiple criminal incidents of the same type where reported in an apartment complex, it would be reported as a single incident; e.g. 4 armed robberies = 1.
    Government and statistics are not compatible with each other. The travesty of how they manipulate inflation reporting ought to tell the whole tale there.
    , @MBlanc46
    You’re certainly right about moving blacks out of the city. You wouldn’t catch me in Harvey for any reason. However, there was a spike in homicides in 2016 and 2017, for whatever reason (or no reason at all). The decline, if it is a decline, may well be equally impenetrable. Of course, leave it to Rahmulus to take credit for it.
  33. The “economic cleansing” of Chicago predates Trump.

  34. @anon

    “strategic decision support centers”
     
    Chicago has been using increasing technology throughout both the rise and fall of the murder rate. For example, they have used a strategic subject list since 2012.

    Eddie Johnson has stressed for years that they know who the victims and perps will be in a high percentage of murders.

    It takes PhD's to justify ignoring your lying eyes.

    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump’s presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump’s presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.
     
    Prove that "[Trump] has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place."

    You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions. Demonstrate something for a change.
  35. Unfortunately, homicides are up in DC.

    • Replies: @Truth
    Yeah but that's Barry's fault... or Michelle's... Or LeBron's... or Treyvon's..
  36. @Twinkie
    Unfortunately, homicides are up in DC.

    Yeah but that’s Barry’s fault… or Michelle’s… Or LeBron’s… or Treyvon’s..

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Yeah but that’s Barry’s fault… or Michelle’s… Or LeBron’s… or Treyvon’s..
     
    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends). Such people are OVERWHELMINGLY black in DC.
  37. @ElitistSettler
    Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks - a "folie a deux" between trump and his toady squires.

    Let's look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    ElitistSettler, Trump supporters don’t care if he’s divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, et cetera. We could see it from a mile away too.

    He’s the first president in my lifetime to send up the system, and I’ve been paying attention since 1967.

    He’s not yet a war criminal. Hillary was the other choice.

  38. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @Brutusale
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/8649bfdb2397853fcf21de96b7c24772/tenor.gif?itemid=5285986


    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/spate?s=t

    I love The Princess Bride. I just checked out the bio of Wallace Shawn on Wikipedia. Dayamn, very impressive. The Putney School; B.A., Harvard (Philosophy, Economics, Politics); Magdalen College, University of Oxford (Latin); taught Latin in Manhattan.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Wallace Shawn's father William Shawn was the famous editor of The New Yorker from 1952-1987.
  39. Trump stopped making things worse. The long term trend has been favorable, which is why the late Obama Era reversal was so striking.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Excellent, central point, which also explains the role of the Executive Branch.
  40. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Chicago gets its reputation because it typically leads the country in total homicides per year. There have been 1000 people shot already this year. About half the city is a legitimate no go zone after dark. Reports on public transportation thefts and assaults are suppressed, as are the wilding occurrences in downtown. I have seen small scale versions of this first hand. A group of 10 or so "youths" will walk up to a street corner and abruptly stop in front of a group of street crossing pedestrians, creating collisions, and subsequent confusion and anger (chaos) from the normies, which gives the youths and excuse to escalate the situation into vocal and physical intimidation. As a native of the city, I can say that Chicago deserves every bit of hyperbole directed towards it.

    "... but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped."

    Two things: Number 1. Daley started moving blacks out of housing projects almost as soon as he took office back in the late 80's and relocating them to the south suburbs. As I have said before, my wife's childhood town of Park Forest went from a normal middle class town to a section 8 wasteland within one generation because of this. So yes, Cabrini Green is gone and that area is very trendy, but those displaced people didn't just vanish into thin air. It is not unreasonable to contend that those same people took much of their crime with them. Places like Ford Heights, Harvey, Salk Village, and Chicago Heights are about as dangerous as the Chicago neighborhoods of Austin, Garfield Park, and Englewood. So crime might be down, or it might just be spread out.

    Number 2 is Compstat. This "policing tool" is essentially a taxpayer funded bureaucratic experiment on how city halls across the country can manipulate and hide true crime statistics, by reclassifying crimes (homicides are reclassified as death investigations, for example) and delaying the release of information. Chicago has been using it for about 10 years.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/nypd-compstat_n_3587637.html

    I believe I had read before that in other countries they used assorted tactics to distort crime reporting stats. For example it was alleged in Japan that if someone had shot four people in an apartment, it might get reported as 1 homicide 3 suicide. In England it was alleged that if multiple criminal incidents of the same type where reported in an apartment complex, it would be reported as a single incident; e.g. 4 armed robberies = 1.
    Government and statistics are not compatible with each other. The travesty of how they manipulate inflation reporting ought to tell the whole tale there.

  41. OT: weeds no longer rotting in the fields now.

    “This weed-killing AI robot uses 20 times less herbicide and may disrupt a $26 billion market”

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/04/ecorobotix-and-blue-river-built-smart-weed-killing-robots.html

  42. J.Ross says: • Website
    @eD
    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    Federal bureaucracies (notably the Justice Department but potentially everybody) invade local agencies by promising cash, military hardware, training, and so forth, and alternately they threaten their way in by aggressively investigating disparate impact. In order to get the goods you must agree to adopt their policies. This was yet another huge yet unreported issue under King Obama. It was so big that many local non-aligned populist movements sprang up, ordering their local agency to refuse federal “help” (and, if necessary, return Megaweapon). This part was belatedly reported but without any good explanations: it was presented as a “news of the weird” one-off. You may have heard of the Vermont town that didn’t want its police to have an MRAP. This issue overlaps “asset forfeiture” which look into if you haven’t.
    Consistently, departments that took the federal poison became problem departments, imitating Israel with, of all the completely unforeseeable factors, authentic Israeli training and its famous risk-minimization doctrine. This was made much worse by these criminals having a big government krysha protecting them from attention. Recall when Albuquerque could no longer be kept out of the news for murdering a surounded, outnumbered and complying homeless man camping in wilderness. The better reports mentioned that the basis of the outrage was that this was hardly the first time.
    It is very illuminating to compare the media hystrionics and bussed-in astroturf rioters of the Black Lives psy-op to the actual problem of undereported, unprotested, federalized and Israelized cops. It’s almost tempting to say that the one was worth implementing just to distract from the other, like Obama deciding that gay marriage rights was the issue of our time as he committed impeachable offenses and war crimes.

  43. @eD
    When did the President of the United States start being in charge of local policing?

    I live in Oakland. We have no police.

    OK that’s an exaggeration the literal fact is that we have only about half the number of police per capita that a normal American city has. Oakland is a majority white city with declining numbers of blacks and increasing numbers of Latinos and Asians.

    We also have a long and solid tradition of having lunatic political leadership. We had Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown as our mayor twice and Ron “The first black commie” Dellums too. Now we have as mayor a woman who tips off the criminals about pending police raids. Our school board gave the world Ebonics and we pay the police so much in salary overtime, benefits and unfunded retirement that we can’t afford to hire more than a handful of cops.

    I’m thinking of moving to someplace with better government. Maybe Venezuela.

  44. Anon[132] • Disclaimer says:

    “Almost.”

    The WP story you linked to was written back in 2015, back at peak denial and before crime stats were in for successive years since Michael Brown was shot in 2014. In fact, most of the left wing sites that claimed it was wasn’t real date back to 2015.

    All you did was a Google search to find what you wanted and posted the first result without any further thought or context. From the year after:

    “‘Ferguson Effect’ is a plausible reason for spike in violent US crime, study says”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/15/ferguson-effect-homicide-rates-us-crime-study

    AND

    “The evidence is now clear: the much-debated “Ferguson Effect”—in which heated protests lead to hesitant cops and higher crime—is real. In cities such as Baltimore and Chicago these three phenomena emerged at the exact same time. Nationwide, many urban areas, especially those with large black populations, saw substantial increases in homicide between 2014 and 2015. And new data collected from big-city police departments indicate that the problem may be ongoing, with a 9 percent rise in homicide between the first quarter of 2015 and the same period this year.”

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/yes-theres-a-ferguson-effect/

    In fact, I believe Sailer himself noted that much of the crime increase came from predominantly black cities, strengthening the suggestion. Too bad you missed that one.

    This is why critical reasoning skills are important, ladies and gentlemen.

    • Replies: @res

    In fact, I believe Sailer himself noted that much of the crime increase came from predominantly black cities, strengthening the suggestion. Too bad you missed that one.
     
    Not only that, but cities which had BLM issues tended to have homicide issues as well. See this comment from September 2015: https://www.unz.com/isteve/homicides-2015-v-2014-there-seems-to-be-a-trend/#comment-1134486
  45. Anon[312] • Disclaimer says:

    “The problem of course is that crime hasn’t been decreasing in Chicago for a mere 16 months. Wow, the never ending parade of crediting the current executive with non-sequitor events.”

    That’s a complete misrepresentation of the data. You linked articles from 2014 and before and then neglected the subsequent murder increase concomitant with the shooting of Michael Brown.

    You disingenuously looked at the overall trend for several years prior, inappropriately ignored the sections showing an increase, and then tied recent declines to the overall trend present since long before Brown was shot.

    That’s like saying there was no link between the Black Death and Middle Ages European life expectancy during outbreak years because the total population of Europe increased from the year 1000 AD and 2000 AD.

    I would expect better from a guy with your username, but then again you post over at TAC, so no I guess not.

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    No,


    There are actually multiple cites that include homicide -- that span more years, those references haven't appeared yet, though they were submitted first. This is an old tale about crime states. They have been declining across the board before the current executive was elected . . . certainly before 16 months.

    i have no doubt that police unions are happy to join that apple cart.

    https://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/illinois/chicago.html


    Criminal statistical trends don't start and stop at spikes. So starting at a spike and moving forward hardly provides an image of crime trends. The game here is simple. Let's examine the data since the current executive took offices --- but to comprehend a trend one looks before to see the data direction. Since the direction has been down even before this executive took office, it's safe to say -- that his election id the least effect factor. That is the case even if you manipulate internet resources to align with the intended result ---
  46. This is an unfortunate and alarming trend ; but let’s not panic the market will right itself .

  47. Every time Rahm opens his mouth I think, ok, he can’t possibly be even more of a chutzpahdik POS. But he tops himself every single time.

    Downtown has turned into the Congo on weekend nights. De facto unilateral race war ongoing. This Mayor has destroyed Chicago.

    Please deport him to Israel stat.

  48. 1) Gentrification has driven some portion of the violent fraction elsewhere

    Or more likely

    2) This is the latest (and vehement, because mid-term elections) messaging blurp in an old PR and crime management strategy from Rahmtown.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/

    Chicago conducted a 12-month examination of the Chicago Police Department’s crime statistics going back several years, poring through public and internal police records and interviewing crime victims, criminologists, and police sources of various ranks. We identified 10 people, including Groves, who were beaten, burned, suffocated, or shot to death in 2013 and whose cases were reclassified as death investigations, downgraded to more minor crimes, or even closed as noncriminal incidents—all for illogical or, at best, unclear reasons.

    This troubling practice goes far beyond murders, documents and interviews reveal. Chicago found dozens of other crimes, including serious felonies such as robberies, burglaries, and assaults, that were misclassified, downgraded to wrist-slap offenses, or made to vanish altogether. (We’ll examine those next month in part 2 of this special report.)

    …The chief felt even more pressure than his rank and file may have realized. For the former New Yorker to prove that his policing strategies worked in Chicago, he would need to keep the number of murders not just below 2012’s total but also below 2011’s: 435.

    To do so, McCarthy leaned even more heavily on a tool that has proved wildly successful in his hometown: CompStat. Borrowing performance-management principles from the business world, CompStat collects, analyzes, and maps a city’s crime data in real time. These statistics help police track trouble spots more accurately and pinpoint where officers are needed most. The department’s number crunchers can slice and dice the stats all sorts of ways, spitting out reports showing percentage changes in various crimes by neighborhood over different time frames, for example: month to month, week to week—heck, hour to hour.

    Armed with those statistics, the police brass turn up the pressure in weekly meetings, grilling field commanders about crime in their areas. The statistics are widely said to make or break a career. “The only evaluation is the numbers,” says a veteran sergeant. “God forbid your crime is up. If you have a 20 percent reduction this month, you’d better have a 21 percent reduction the next month.”

    The homicide numbers are especially important, says one cop: “You should see these supervisors, like cats in a room filled with rocking chairs, afraid to classify a murder because of all the screaming they will hear downtown.”

    If the numbers are bad, the district commanders and officers get reamed out by McCarthy and the other bosses at headquarters. These targets frequently leave the meetings seething.

    Defining away nasty things so that your gentrification/real estate project can surge forward isn’t merely some sort of exploitive dishonesty.

    The Milk-Man knows that if you want to have a functioning city, you have to attract certain kinds of people and get rid of certain others. But when your city is in the news both for the activities of those others, and what they do when they are sent elsewhere, you have to deal with crime in whatever way makes the real estate picture look best. It’s like economics and finance. As long as you don’t count something, it doesn’t count.

    Now stop and think about how this must work in other Dem strongholds. Like, say, DC, where you can walk home from your DNC IT job as “voter expansion data director,” get “shot in the back on the street, be transported to the local hospital by LE and medical support, then show up at the morgue with none of your personal possessions missing. And your shooting/death is tallied as a robbery.

    • Replies: @J.Ross

    Like, say, DC, where you can walk home from your DNC IT job as “voter expansion data director,” get “shot in the back on the street, be transported to the local hospital by LE and medical support, then show up at the morgue with none of your personal possessions missing.
     
    Ah, but Russian hacker Seth "The Example" Rich was himself not blameless, he was guilty of noticing the DNC throw the California primary. There are always little things the urban citizen can do to make his evening stroll safer.
  49. @Anonymous
    I love The Princess Bride. I just checked out the bio of Wallace Shawn on Wikipedia. Dayamn, very impressive. The Putney School; B.A., Harvard (Philosophy, Economics, Politics); Magdalen College, University of Oxford (Latin); taught Latin in Manhattan.

    Wallace Shawn’s father William Shawn was the famous editor of The New Yorker from 1952-1987.

  50. Anon[184] • Disclaimer says:

    “The Milk-Man knows that if you want to have a functioning city, you have to attract certain kinds of people and get rid of certain others.”

    Same if you want a functioning country.

    OT: running out the country’s most important demographic, the air force turns to video games for recruits.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-the-air-force-thinks-it-can-turn-gamers-into-its-next-top-guns/

  51. @ElitistSettler
    Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks - a "folie a deux" between trump and his toady squires.

    Let's look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    Thanks for confirming the stereotype of a clueless doctor with a head full of useless facts. MDs are the most full-of-faeces profession of them all, save one – lawyers. MDs offer certainty where probabilities are warranted, telling when they should be listening, and reaction instead of thought followed by action.

    Here’s the kind of reasoning your thought process leads to. Doctors went on strike in California in the 70’s, and the death rate went down. Let’s get rid of all the California doctors.

  52. @Corvinus
    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump's presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.

    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump’s presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.

    Prove that “[Trump] has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.”

    You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions. Demonstrate something for a change.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions."

    Sorry, Queenie, I am neither reactionary nor leftist. And I am far from fact free. It appears that Trump did send in 20 extra ATF agents to deal with the illegal flow of guns to that city, but that initiative had been in the works with the Obama Administration. But there have been no additional FBI resources sent there and no specific initiative by Trump that is definitively tied in to the declining murder rate.

    All Sailer did was ask a question "Did it have something to do with all the anti-police changes imposed on Chicago from November 2015 to January 2016 with the backing of the Community Organizer-in-Chief?" that his dear readers will lap up and say "yep"--without ANY metrics involved.
  53. @Olorin
    1) Gentrification has driven some portion of the violent fraction elsewhere

    Or more likely

    2) This is the latest (and vehement, because mid-term elections) messaging blurp in an old PR and crime management strategy from Rahmtown.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/

    Chicago conducted a 12-month examination of the Chicago Police Department’s crime statistics going back several years, poring through public and internal police records and interviewing crime victims, criminologists, and police sources of various ranks. We identified 10 people, including Groves, who were beaten, burned, suffocated, or shot to death in 2013 and whose cases were reclassified as death investigations, downgraded to more minor crimes, or even closed as noncriminal incidents—all for illogical or, at best, unclear reasons.

    This troubling practice goes far beyond murders, documents and interviews reveal. Chicago found dozens of other crimes, including serious felonies such as robberies, burglaries, and assaults, that were misclassified, downgraded to wrist-slap offenses, or made to vanish altogether. (We’ll examine those next month in part 2 of this special report.)

    ...The chief felt even more pressure than his rank and file may have realized. For the former New Yorker to prove that his policing strategies worked in Chicago, he would need to keep the number of murders not just below 2012’s total but also below 2011’s: 435.

    To do so, McCarthy leaned even more heavily on a tool that has proved wildly successful in his hometown: CompStat. Borrowing performance-management principles from the business world, CompStat collects, analyzes, and maps a city’s crime data in real time. These statistics help police track trouble spots more accurately and pinpoint where officers are needed most. The department’s number crunchers can slice and dice the stats all sorts of ways, spitting out reports showing percentage changes in various crimes by neighborhood over different time frames, for example: month to month, week to week—heck, hour to hour.

    Armed with those statistics, the police brass turn up the pressure in weekly meetings, grilling field commanders about crime in their areas. The statistics are widely said to make or break a career. “The only evaluation is the numbers,” says a veteran sergeant. “God forbid your crime is up. If you have a 20 percent reduction this month, you’d better have a 21 percent reduction the next month.”

    The homicide numbers are especially important, says one cop: “You should see these supervisors, like cats in a room filled with rocking chairs, afraid to classify a murder because of all the screaming they will hear downtown.”

    If the numbers are bad, the district commanders and officers get reamed out by McCarthy and the other bosses at headquarters. These targets frequently leave the meetings seething.
     
    Defining away nasty things so that your gentrification/real estate project can surge forward isn't merely some sort of exploitive dishonesty.

    The Milk-Man knows that if you want to have a functioning city, you have to attract certain kinds of people and get rid of certain others. But when your city is in the news both for the activities of those others, and what they do when they are sent elsewhere, you have to deal with crime in whatever way makes the real estate picture look best. It's like economics and finance. As long as you don't count something, it doesn't count.

    Now stop and think about how this must work in other Dem strongholds. Like, say, DC, where you can walk home from your DNC IT job as "voter expansion data director," get "shot in the back on the street, be transported to the local hospital by LE and medical support, then show up at the morgue with none of your personal possessions missing. And your shooting/death is tallied as a robbery.

    Like, say, DC, where you can walk home from your DNC IT job as “voter expansion data director,” get “shot in the back on the street, be transported to the local hospital by LE and medical support, then show up at the morgue with none of your personal possessions missing.

    Ah, but Russian hacker Seth “The Example” Rich was himself not blameless, he was guilty of noticing the DNC throw the California primary. There are always little things the urban citizen can do to make his evening stroll safer.

    • Replies: @Olorin
    Well put, J. Kudotastic.

    I guess we can never know which of our actions will get us enmorgulated, eh? Best keep our heads down, lie low...and never Notice.

    Look! A thing!

    My neighbor has a thing like that. At least I think he does. Never met him and don't know his name. But he must. Because reasons.

    How about that sports team? And those referees! What a bunch of calls they made!
  54. @anon
    Trump stopped making things worse. The long term trend has been favorable, which is why the late Obama Era reversal was so striking.

    Excellent, central point, which also explains the role of the Executive Branch.

  55. @ElitistSettler
    You'll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.

    You’ll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.

    Your blame shifting to Med School is typical ‘it is not my fault’ i.e., ‘I dindu nuffin’, but something did indeed do a “terrible number on” your ability to reason.

    You emigrated here from a Sh1tH0le, and now your passionate mission is to make the USA a Sh1tH0le. So you sign up as a leftis ass hat.

    And when your dishonesty, your prevarication, and your dissembling all come back to visit you (you have heard of karma, no?), then you will say “why did such a luminous, harmonious, virtuous version of humanity, such as me, have all these annoyances, maladies, and plagues afflict me? I am a f\/cking MEDICAL DOCTOR you plebes – lick my sores.

    And we will shake our heads, and go back to what we were doing before we heard your squeaky voice shouting from the land of mice.

  56. @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    The lying eyes is for our intrepid host to somehow link Trump’s presidency and/or policies to declining murders in Chi-town, when in fact he has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place.
     
    Prove that "[Trump] has nothing to do that trend, nor the measures put in place."

    You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions. Demonstrate something for a change.

    “You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions.”

    Sorry, Queenie, I am neither reactionary nor leftist. And I am far from fact free. It appears that Trump did send in 20 extra ATF agents to deal with the illegal flow of guns to that city, but that initiative had been in the works with the Obama Administration. But there have been no additional FBI resources sent there and no specific initiative by Trump that is definitively tied in to the declining murder rate.

    All Sailer did was ask a question “Did it have something to do with all the anti-police changes imposed on Chicago from November 2015 to January 2016 with the backing of the Community Organizer-in-Chief?” that his dear readers will lap up and say “yep”–without ANY metrics involved.

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    I could argue that in fact the uptick in crime in chicago homicides is directly correlated with the election of president Trump. That president Trump's admonitions of "roughing them up" has embolden those engaged in homicide to leave no witnesses - hence the 2016 spike in homicde.


    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted -- all to happy to do so. But having abandoned the issues for which i voted for him, i am inclined to stay where i was when i voted.

    There are lots ways to manipulate data.

    , @Charles Erwin Wilson II
    Once again you demonstrate nothing Corvinus. Trump, unlike Obama, does not lead with his behind. And the effects of leadership, especially presidential leadership are dramatic. Trump's successes have demonstrated that Obama was a hollow shell, unable to improve anything, but able to matters worse.

    Just like you.
  57. @Anon
    “The problem of course is that crime hasn’t been decreasing in Chicago for a mere 16 months. Wow, the never ending parade of crediting the current executive with non-sequitor events.”

    That’s a complete misrepresentation of the data. You linked articles from 2014 and before and then neglected the subsequent murder increase concomitant with the shooting of Michael Brown.

    You disingenuously looked at the overall trend for several years prior, inappropriately ignored the sections showing an increase, and then tied recent declines to the overall trend present since long before Brown was shot.

    That’s like saying there was no link between the Black Death and Middle Ages European life expectancy during outbreak years because the total population of Europe increased from the year 1000 AD and 2000 AD.

    I would expect better from a guy with your username, but then again you post over at TAC, so no I guess not.

    No,

    There are actually multiple cites that include homicide — that span more years, those references haven’t appeared yet, though they were submitted first. This is an old tale about crime states. They have been declining across the board before the current executive was elected . . . certainly before 16 months.

    i have no doubt that police unions are happy to join that apple cart.

    https://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/illinois/chicago.html

    Criminal statistical trends don’t start and stop at spikes. So starting at a spike and moving forward hardly provides an image of crime trends. The game here is simple. Let’s examine the data since the current executive took offices — but to comprehend a trend one looks before to see the data direction. Since the direction has been down even before this executive took office, it’s safe to say — that his election id the least effect factor. That is the case even if you manipulate internet resources to align with the intended result —

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Criminal statistical trends don’t start and stop at spikes.

    Actually, they did in Chicago, with homicides shooting up in the two months following the release of the Laquan McDonald bad shooting video on 11/23/2015 followed rapidly by an ACLU agreement and a couple of other blows to the CPD.

    Similar spikes happened in St. Louis after Ferguson and Baltimore after what's his name.

  58. @Corvinus
    "You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions."

    Sorry, Queenie, I am neither reactionary nor leftist. And I am far from fact free. It appears that Trump did send in 20 extra ATF agents to deal with the illegal flow of guns to that city, but that initiative had been in the works with the Obama Administration. But there have been no additional FBI resources sent there and no specific initiative by Trump that is definitively tied in to the declining murder rate.

    All Sailer did was ask a question "Did it have something to do with all the anti-police changes imposed on Chicago from November 2015 to January 2016 with the backing of the Community Organizer-in-Chief?" that his dear readers will lap up and say "yep"--without ANY metrics involved.

    I could argue that in fact the uptick in crime in chicago homicides is directly correlated with the election of president Trump. That president Trump’s admonitions of “roughing them up” has embolden those engaged in homicide to leave no witnesses – hence the 2016 spike in homicde.

    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted — all to happy to do so. But having abandoned the issues for which i voted for him, i am inclined to stay where i was when i voted.

    There are lots ways to manipulate data.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Try looking up the data first before accusing others of manipulating it.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted
     
    It is great to know that the sub-70-IQ crowd can give Trump his due. Your example ensures that competent observers know that the breadth of the franchise has been extended far too far.

    I'll bet you don't own property.
  59. @EliteCommInc.
    No,


    There are actually multiple cites that include homicide -- that span more years, those references haven't appeared yet, though they were submitted first. This is an old tale about crime states. They have been declining across the board before the current executive was elected . . . certainly before 16 months.

    i have no doubt that police unions are happy to join that apple cart.

    https://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/illinois/chicago.html


    Criminal statistical trends don't start and stop at spikes. So starting at a spike and moving forward hardly provides an image of crime trends. The game here is simple. Let's examine the data since the current executive took offices --- but to comprehend a trend one looks before to see the data direction. Since the direction has been down even before this executive took office, it's safe to say -- that his election id the least effect factor. That is the case even if you manipulate internet resources to align with the intended result ---

    Criminal statistical trends don’t start and stop at spikes.

    Actually, they did in Chicago, with homicides shooting up in the two months following the release of the Laquan McDonald bad shooting video on 11/23/2015 followed rapidly by an ACLU agreement and a couple of other blows to the CPD.

    Similar spikes happened in St. Louis after Ferguson and Baltimore after what’s his name.

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    the problem is that spikes are routine in trend stats. One the return to what is the pre-spike direction, the anomaly is noted as the spike.

    The uptick in the examples cited is more in line with the violence that followed - riots and the the trend lines returned to a pre-spike direction.

    All three locations experiences "riot behavior".
  60. @EliteCommInc.
    I could argue that in fact the uptick in crime in chicago homicides is directly correlated with the election of president Trump. That president Trump's admonitions of "roughing them up" has embolden those engaged in homicide to leave no witnesses - hence the 2016 spike in homicde.


    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted -- all to happy to do so. But having abandoned the issues for which i voted for him, i am inclined to stay where i was when i voted.

    There are lots ways to manipulate data.

    Try looking up the data first before accusing others of manipulating it.

    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    hmmmm . . .,


    i have submitted this data. i don't in any manner question the spikes . . .


    my aside about data manipulation is not pertinent to the issue. Though, i will exercise more prudence in that regard. No issues.

  61. @Steve Sailer
    Criminal statistical trends don’t start and stop at spikes.

    Actually, they did in Chicago, with homicides shooting up in the two months following the release of the Laquan McDonald bad shooting video on 11/23/2015 followed rapidly by an ACLU agreement and a couple of other blows to the CPD.

    Similar spikes happened in St. Louis after Ferguson and Baltimore after what's his name.

    the problem is that spikes are routine in trend stats. One the return to what is the pre-spike direction, the anomaly is noted as the spike.

    The uptick in the examples cited is more in line with the violence that followed – riots and the the trend lines returned to a pre-spike direction.

    All three locations experiences “riot behavior”.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Is direct encouragement to the rioters by the President of the United States making a special in-person appearance routine in trend statistics?
  62. @Steve Sailer
    Try looking up the data first before accusing others of manipulating it.

    hmmmm . . .,

    i have submitted this data. i don’t in any manner question the spikes . . .

    my aside about data manipulation is not pertinent to the issue. Though, i will exercise more prudence in that regard. No issues.

  63. @Truth
    Yeah but that's Barry's fault... or Michelle's... Or LeBron's... or Treyvon's..

    Yeah but that’s Barry’s fault… or Michelle’s… Or LeBron’s… or Treyvon’s..

    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends). Such people are OVERWHELMINGLY black in DC.

    • Replies: @res

    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends).
     
    Agreed about those, but I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.
  64. @ElitistSettler
    Trump, of course, does take credit for things like the lack of deaths on US airliners (or did, until that lady got sucked out of a plane recently). It seems his followers are only more than happy to indulge his psychopathology. This might be one straight out of the textbooks - a "folie a deux" between trump and his toady squires.

    Let's look beyond a natural statistical regression to the mean after a spat of violence in Chicago and even beyond the recent installation of a citywide surveillance system. It must be that intangible Trump aura at work.

    I will give Trump credit for the absolutely unmatched role he has played in fighting white supremacy. The twice divorced, foul-mouthed, crude, brutish, porn-star bedding slob seems the embodiment of the very worst black stereotypes. This, in juxtaposition with the exposure he has given his pathetic white bumpkin fanbase (a true underclass if there ever was one), has provided us an image that has silently done more to fight white supremacy than anything since the civil rights act.

    You’re missing the point, Doc. All the Sessions JD has to do is nothing. Why don’t you re-read comments #13 and #40?

  65. Chicago officials laud 15th consecutive month of declining gun violence

    A 1970s book from Arlington House placed Rome and Utica, NY, #2 and #4 on their list of the safest cities in America. But their explanation was less than flattering– there was nothing left in either city to steal.

    Chicago is running out of people to kill.

  66. @EliteCommInc.
    the problem is that spikes are routine in trend stats. One the return to what is the pre-spike direction, the anomaly is noted as the spike.

    The uptick in the examples cited is more in line with the violence that followed - riots and the the trend lines returned to a pre-spike direction.

    All three locations experiences "riot behavior".

    Is direct encouragement to the rioters by the President of the United States making a special in-person appearance routine in trend statistics?

  67. res says:
    @Anon
    "Almost."

    The WP story you linked to was written back in 2015, back at peak denial and before crime stats were in for successive years since Michael Brown was shot in 2014. In fact, most of the left wing sites that claimed it was wasn't real date back to 2015.

    All you did was a Google search to find what you wanted and posted the first result without any further thought or context. From the year after:

    "'Ferguson Effect' is a plausible reason for spike in violent US crime, study says"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/15/ferguson-effect-homicide-rates-us-crime-study

    AND

    "The evidence is now clear: the much-debated “Ferguson Effect”—in which heated protests lead to hesitant cops and higher crime—is real. In cities such as Baltimore and Chicago these three phenomena emerged at the exact same time. Nationwide, many urban areas, especially those with large black populations, saw substantial increases in homicide between 2014 and 2015. And new data collected from big-city police departments indicate that the problem may be ongoing, with a 9 percent rise in homicide between the first quarter of 2015 and the same period this year."

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/yes-theres-a-ferguson-effect/

    In fact, I believe Sailer himself noted that much of the crime increase came from predominantly black cities, strengthening the suggestion. Too bad you missed that one.

    This is why critical reasoning skills are important, ladies and gentlemen.

    In fact, I believe Sailer himself noted that much of the crime increase came from predominantly black cities, strengthening the suggestion. Too bad you missed that one.

    Not only that, but cities which had BLM issues tended to have homicide issues as well. See this comment from September 2015: https://www.unz.com/isteve/homicides-2015-v-2014-there-seems-to-be-a-trend/#comment-1134486

  68. @Twinkie

    Yeah but that’s Barry’s fault… or Michelle’s… Or LeBron’s… or Treyvon’s..
     
    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends). Such people are OVERWHELMINGLY black in DC.

    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends).

    Agreed about those, but I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.
     
    People who are easily riled up by the media into committing violent crimes are not exactly good people in the first place. I don’t give a pass to these vile enablers, but, at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes.
  69. @res

    I blame the people who commit those crimes and their enablers (family and friends).
     
    Agreed about those, but I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.

    I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.

    People who are easily riled up by the media into committing violent crimes are not exactly good people in the first place. I don’t give a pass to these vile enablers, but, at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes.

    • Replies: @res
    I was thinking less of the people riling them up (I would call those inciter rather than enabler) than of the people making apologies for them, cracking down on LEO behaving reasonably, claiming disparate impact is racism, etc.

    Agreed about this: "at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes."
  70. Anon[312] • Disclaimer says:

    “Try looking up the data first before accusing others of manipulating it.”

    Ouch.

    But you can’t really expect better of TAC commenters. They go to HuffPost, get mad, run to TAC so they can see “conservatives” agreeing with them, and then seek out other “conservatives” to troll because they think everyone agrees with them. If they are going to do that, they should stick to a place where smart people don’t hang out and where the moderators don’t casually spike posts.

    “I could argue that in fact the uptick in crime in chicago homicides is directly correlated with the election of president Trump.”

    Really? When was Trump elected and when did this trend start? Oh, that’s right. He was elected years after this trend started back, broadly, in 2014 with the shooting of Michael Brown. No one could argue what you suggest in good faith. If there was even a scintilla of a correlation between the two, you would have seen concomitant increases in the murder rate in Hispanic-majority areas due to “muh Trump”, but you didn’t – not really. This was clearly an event linked to media coverage over specifically black deaths at the hands of police officers. That is obvious.

    Now that Trump is president, the media has GREATLY calmed down in their racial agitations. It’s not surprising that, as a result, the trend-line has started to go back to where it was before the media decided to prepare the way for the Democrat in 2016 using Willie Hortonesqe racial dog whistling. Trump definitely deserves some credit for that; at the very least, the guy changed the media’s attitude on the subject and put them in their place. I don’t see a president Hillary doing the same, especially going into midterms.

  71. @ElitistSettler
    You'll have to accept my apologies. Med school did a terrible number on my ability to spell.

    Ah, another internet warrior/poet/mage.

    We walk in the garden of your turbulence.

  72. res says:
    @Twinkie

    I think you are remiss in leaving out their enablers in the local and national media and political worlds.
     
    People who are easily riled up by the media into committing violent crimes are not exactly good people in the first place. I don’t give a pass to these vile enablers, but, at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes.

    I was thinking less of the people riling them up (I would call those inciter rather than enabler) than of the people making apologies for them, cracking down on LEO behaving reasonably, claiming disparate impact is racism, etc.

    Agreed about this: “at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes.”

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I would call those inciter rather than enabler
     
    Good point.
  73. @Corvinus
    "You are the prince of fact-free, reactionary, Leftist assertions."

    Sorry, Queenie, I am neither reactionary nor leftist. And I am far from fact free. It appears that Trump did send in 20 extra ATF agents to deal with the illegal flow of guns to that city, but that initiative had been in the works with the Obama Administration. But there have been no additional FBI resources sent there and no specific initiative by Trump that is definitively tied in to the declining murder rate.

    All Sailer did was ask a question "Did it have something to do with all the anti-police changes imposed on Chicago from November 2015 to January 2016 with the backing of the Community Organizer-in-Chief?" that his dear readers will lap up and say "yep"--without ANY metrics involved.

    Once again you demonstrate nothing Corvinus. Trump, unlike Obama, does not lead with his behind. And the effects of leadership, especially presidential leadership are dramatic. Trump’s successes have demonstrated that Obama was a hollow shell, unable to improve anything, but able to matters worse.

    Just like you.

  74. @EliteCommInc.
    I could argue that in fact the uptick in crime in chicago homicides is directly correlated with the election of president Trump. That president Trump's admonitions of "roughing them up" has embolden those engaged in homicide to leave no witnesses - hence the 2016 spike in homicde.


    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted -- all to happy to do so. But having abandoned the issues for which i voted for him, i am inclined to stay where i was when i voted.

    There are lots ways to manipulate data.

    i am more than happy to give this executive his due when warranted

    It is great to know that the sub-70-IQ crowd can give Trump his due. Your example ensures that competent observers know that the breadth of the franchise has been extended far too far.

    I’ll bet you don’t own property.

  75. Anon[488] • Disclaimer says:

    That’s the Kucinich and Tara’s effect.

    “I want you to envision an Ohio four years from now.”

    In my vision, we will have led the way for healthcare for all. For a statewide ban on assault weapons. For a $15 minimum wage, and good jobs and benefits for all Ohioans. For two-year free college, universal pre-kindergarten, clean air and water and real economic opportunity for all.

    There’s a new Ohio waiting to be born, and it doesn’t belong to corporate interests. In my vision of the future, Ohio belongs to us. And with your help, it will be

    Join us! – http://www.kucinich.com/

  76. @res
    I was thinking less of the people riling them up (I would call those inciter rather than enabler) than of the people making apologies for them, cracking down on LEO behaving reasonably, claiming disparate impact is racism, etc.

    Agreed about this: "at the end of the day, individuals are responsible for the choices they make, especially in terms of committing crimes."

    I would call those inciter rather than enabler

    Good point.

  77. @J.Ross

    Like, say, DC, where you can walk home from your DNC IT job as “voter expansion data director,” get “shot in the back on the street, be transported to the local hospital by LE and medical support, then show up at the morgue with none of your personal possessions missing.
     
    Ah, but Russian hacker Seth "The Example" Rich was himself not blameless, he was guilty of noticing the DNC throw the California primary. There are always little things the urban citizen can do to make his evening stroll safer.

    Well put, J. Kudotastic.

    I guess we can never know which of our actions will get us enmorgulated, eh? Best keep our heads down, lie low…and never Notice.

    Look! A thing!

    My neighbor has a thing like that. At least I think he does. Never met him and don’t know his name. But he must. Because reasons.

    How about that sports team? And those referees! What a bunch of calls they made!

  78. @JohnnyWalker123
    Interesting news story. India's TFR has fallen to 2.2. For the upper fifth of the income distribution, TFR is only 1.5.

    http://www.thehansindia.com/posts/index/Hans-Classroom/2018-05-09/Total-fertility-rate/379819

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertility-rate-below-replacement-level-for-all-but-hindus-muslims/articleshow/62465588.cms

    They’ll still be growing for decades, because of inertia. And, now, with added dysgenics!

  79. @Bragadocious
    That wasn't during his presidency.

    You asked if he “ever set foot there?” Answer: sorta.

    During Presidency? Not that I know of.

  80. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Chicago gets its reputation because it typically leads the country in total homicides per year. There have been 1000 people shot already this year. About half the city is a legitimate no go zone after dark. Reports on public transportation thefts and assaults are suppressed, as are the wilding occurrences in downtown. I have seen small scale versions of this first hand. A group of 10 or so "youths" will walk up to a street corner and abruptly stop in front of a group of street crossing pedestrians, creating collisions, and subsequent confusion and anger (chaos) from the normies, which gives the youths and excuse to escalate the situation into vocal and physical intimidation. As a native of the city, I can say that Chicago deserves every bit of hyperbole directed towards it.

    "... but its crime rate is way down from two decades ago and many neighborhoods that were dangerous back then have been completely redeveloped."

    Two things: Number 1. Daley started moving blacks out of housing projects almost as soon as he took office back in the late 80's and relocating them to the south suburbs. As I have said before, my wife's childhood town of Park Forest went from a normal middle class town to a section 8 wasteland within one generation because of this. So yes, Cabrini Green is gone and that area is very trendy, but those displaced people didn't just vanish into thin air. It is not unreasonable to contend that those same people took much of their crime with them. Places like Ford Heights, Harvey, Salk Village, and Chicago Heights are about as dangerous as the Chicago neighborhoods of Austin, Garfield Park, and Englewood. So crime might be down, or it might just be spread out.

    Number 2 is Compstat. This "policing tool" is essentially a taxpayer funded bureaucratic experiment on how city halls across the country can manipulate and hide true crime statistics, by reclassifying crimes (homicides are reclassified as death investigations, for example) and delaying the release of information. Chicago has been using it for about 10 years.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/nypd-compstat_n_3587637.html

    You’re certainly right about moving blacks out of the city. You wouldn’t catch me in Harvey for any reason. However, there was a spike in homicides in 2016 and 2017, for whatever reason (or no reason at all). The decline, if it is a decline, may well be equally impenetrable. Of course, leave it to Rahmulus to take credit for it.

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