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From The Guardian:

Murders up 10.8% in biggest percentage increase since 1971, FBI data shows

Rising violence in 2015 driven by increase in murders of black men and gun crime, as experts brace for political ‘hysteria’ amid 2016 election

Lois Beckett and Aliza Aufrichtig
Monday 26 September 2016 09.49 EDT

Murders in the US rose 10.8% last year, the biggest single-year percentage jump since 1971, according to data released Monday by the FBI.

The rising violence was driven by an increase in the murders of black men, and by an increase in the number of gun murders. At least 900 more black men were killed in 2015 than in 2014, according to FBI data.

There were roughly 1,500 additional firearm murders in 2015. No other type of weapon saw a comparable increase. The number of knife murders dropped slightly. …

The increase, which follows a two-decade downward trend, put the number of murders back at 15,696, about the same number as in 2009. The national murder rate is still about half what it was in 1991, at the peak of the violent crime wave of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Even as murders rose, the country’s overall crime rates did not increase as substantially. There was a 3.9% increase in the estimated number of violent crimes, but a 2.6% decrease in the estimated number of property crimes.

There is no consensus yet on what factors might be driving a sharp increase in murders alone, but crime has become a politically charged election issue, and the uptick will probably figure in Monday’s presidential debate.

Crime trend experts said they expected politicians to overplay the significance of the new numbers and to react with “hysteria”.

“You lost 50lb. You gained back a couple. You’re not fat,” said Jeffrey Butts, the director of the Research & Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.

1,500 more dead bodies = gaining back a couple of pounds.

“That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look at your behavior, because the trend is not good.”

In St Louis, which already had one of the highest murder rates in the US, murders increased again last year.

It’s almost as if something happened in a suburb of St. Louis in August 2014 that set off the current rise in murder …

Last year, 143 of the city’s murder victims were black men and boys killed with guns, according to data from the police department. ….

Advocates for criminal justice reform said they worried the one-year uptick would fuel calls for a return to damaging, tough-on-crime policies. The US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, and both violent crime and mass incarceration disproportionately affect black Americans.

Remember when Stephen Jay Gould was always denouncing “reification?” Notice how “violent crime” has become reified into this overwhelming force that keeps affecting blacks.

The human cost of an overreaction to the murder increase could be “a lot bigger” than the toll of the rising violence itself, said John Pfaff, a Fordham University law professor who studies criminal sentencing and incarceration. He said he expected the increase to prompt calls for more arrests and more prison time.

The wealthier white Americans whose votes help determine crime policy “don’t tend to be those who feel the costs”, Pfaff said.

Last year’s national murder increase was not a uniform trend, but a sum of contradictory changes in cities across the country. Early analyses of the 2015 murder increase suggested much of it might be driven by murder spikes in just 10 large cities, including Baltimore, Washington DC, Chicago, Houston and Milwaukee.

The murder spike may have started as early as August 2014 in a few places, according to Carl Bialik’s groundbreaking study in FiveThirtyEight a year ago. More definitively, its continuing in 2016 with the liberal Brennan Center projecting a 31.5% increase in the murder rate for 2016 over 2014 in the 30 largest cities.

Some of America’s largest cities, including New York and Los Angeles, saw their murder numbers remain near historic lows in 2015.

Early data from large cities this year suggests that 2015’s uptick in murders may not be a single-year increase. A report from the Brennan Center, analyzing murders in 30 large cities this year, projected an additional 13.1% increase in the murder rates for those cities in 2016, with most of that increase being driven by just three cities: Chicago, Baltimore and Houston. Together, the national large city increases in 2015 and 2016 were projected to drive a 31.5% increase in the murder rate compared with 2014.

“There is no evidence of a national murder wave, yet increases in these select cities are indeed a serious problem,” the Brennan Center report concluded. Chicago alone has seen a close to 50% increase in shootings and murders this year.

The FBI director, James Comey, has repeatedly drawn a connection between increasing violence and “a change in how the police are doing their work” due to the continuing nationwide protests over police killings of black citizens.

“In today’s YouTube world, are officers reluctant to get out of their cars and do the work that controls violent crime?” he asked in 2015, describing “a chill wind that has blown through law enforcement over the last year”.

In May, he suggested the increasing violence could be related to “marginal pullbacks by lots and lots of police officers”, and said that police leaders across the country had seen a change in how their officers do their jobs.

Barack Obama’s administration has repeatedly rejected any connection between protests over police violence and increasing murders. But a justice department-funded report on the 2015 murder increase concluded that there might be some connection between public anger over police killings and an increase in community violence.

Criminologists caution that crime and violence are highly local, and driven by a tangle of so many different factors that it is nearly impossible to say exactly what causes a given increase or decrease. Crime statistics are also easy to over-dramatize. Murder numbers in a small town, for instance, can be dramatically distorted by a single incident with multiple casualties. A town that typically sees a murder a year will see a 100% increase in murders if it ends the year with two.

The murder wave generally isn’t happening in towns with small towns with one murder in 2014, it’s largely happening in big black cities with BLM protests like Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Milwaukee. For example, with the Freddie Gray BLM riots happening in Baltimore in early 2015, the number of homicides in Baltimore increased from 211 in 2014 to 344 in 2015.

Trump has blamed Obama and his administration for a “rollback of criminal enforcement” that has made the country less safe.

This criticism is not supported by the FBI’s murder data. Murders have declined through most of Obama’s two terms, with a serious uptick only in his second-to-last year in office.

Following the rise to prominence, with Administration, media, and NGO sponsorship, of the Black Lives Matter movement after Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson in August 2014.

Between 2008, the year before Obama took office, and 2014, murders dropped, with 2,000 fewer Americans murdered in 2014 than in the last year of George W Bush’s administration.

Crime experts also cautioned that a single-year uptick was not a trend.

But we’re now 26 months out from Ferguson and it looks like a 2 year trend.

Okay, here’s a prediction I’ll make: I bet homicides will be up in Charlotte in the year following the BLM riot versus the year preceding.

Even Heather Mac Donald, a conservative crime analyst who saluted Trump’s “law and order” focus, said in July that it was inaccurate to blame federal crime policy for murder increases.

In general, the president and the federal government have very little power to determine the country’s response to crime and violence.

The feds have a lot of power through the courts and through NGOs like the ACLU to undercut local cops, as is happening in Chicago.

The country has 18,000 local law enforcement agencies of different kinds, including more than 12,000 local police departments, which are largely independent from federal control. Most power to determine crime policy is in the hands of state legislators, and local mayors, police chiefs and prosecutors.

Trump and Clinton have outlined competing visions of violence prevention, with Trump touting a tough-on-crime approach, and Clinton focusing on the need to reform police treatment of black Americans and reduce gun violence through tougher gun control laws.

These contrasting views have symbolic importance, but neither Trump nor Clinton would have much direct influence, as president, over how cities and states address violence. The justice department can use federal funding as a carrot or stick for local departments to adopt different policies, but this is a fairly limited tool for pushing top-down changes.

It seem to be pretty effective at pushing more dead bodies: 1500.

 
    []
  1. Beliavsky says:

    “The rising violence was driven by an increase in the murders of black men, and by an increase in the number of gun murders.”

    How many more murders did black men commit in 2015 than 2014?

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Based on arrests 4,347 - 4,224 = 123

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-43
    (Table 43 is the key table for arrests by race)

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I'm guessing the clearance rate is low?

    If you are interested in a breakdown by victim/offender race look for this table. I have the spreadsheet, not sure if/where it is reproduced on the web.
    Expanded_Homicide_Data_Table_6_Murder_Race_and_Sex_of_Vicitm_by_Race_and_Sex_of_Offender_2015
    scribd has it at: https://www.scribd.com/document/325368883/expanded-homicide-data-table-6-murder-race-and-sex-of-vicitm-by-race-and-sex-of-offender-2015-xls

    You can download all the data at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/downloads/download-printable-files

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  2. Xyz says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-not-to-overreact-to-violent-crime-spike-2016-9

    Idiot kids writing articles like the link here. She even mentions that Chicago accounts for half of the increase. But as Steve so eloquently states, the people running Chicago have also been running the White House for the last 8 years.

    Read More
    • Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist
    That ridiculous journal cranks out crap like this article that sympathetically portrays the narco-voodoo cult of Santa Muerte as worthy of our sensitivity. After all, we need lessons on some of the wonderful cultural enrichment we have coming our way.
  3. anon says: • Disclaimer

    These contrasting views have symbolic importance, but neither Trump nor Clinton would have much direct influence, as president, over how cities and states address violence.

    Oh, I don’t know. One thing they could choose is whether or not they invite the people who incite riots to the White House.

    Read More
  4. Mr. Blank says:

    That is one of the most unintentionally hilarious articles you’ve ever posted, Steve. The sheer repetition of excuses and explanations is like something right out of Monty Python. One almost wonders if they’re doing it on purpose.

    Read More
    • Replies: @EdwardM
    That was my thought. I tried to count the number of passages that tried to explain away the trend and/or caution against trying to address it. I stopped at a dozen. Everyone quoted, (except for reminding us of Comey's statements), "even" the conservative, served to put a damper on the headline.

    Luckily it won't prevent any casual or fair-minded reader from drawing the obvious conclusion.
  5. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I’m of the mind that the Ferguson Effect is a real phenomenon, but what’s to make of the increase in non-black-involved murders?

    Read More
    • Replies: @ben tillman

    I’m of the mind that the Ferguson Effect is a real phenomenon, but what’s to make of the increase in non-black-involved murders?
     
    Who arrests and deters non-Black criminals and potential criminals?
  6. Barnard says:

    All you are going to hear from Hillary is gun control, gun control, gun control.

    Obama’s push to release “non-violent” felons from prison will probably cause a small increase in violent crime over the next few years too.

    Read More
  7. Mr. Blank says:

    Why do I feel like I’m going to be hearing “well at least it’s not as bad as 1991″ for a long, loooong time?

    And why do I suspect that at some point there will be a seamless transition to “it’s only slightly higher than 1991, and hey, 1991 wasn’t all that bad, remember? Think of all the great music that came out of it!”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Abe

    And why do I suspect that at some point there will be a seamless transition to “it’s only slightly higher than 1991, and hey, 1991 wasn’t all that bad, remember? Think of all the great music that came out of it!”
     
    Liberals are sure good at "using their illusion" (rimshot)
  8. Last year, 143 of the city’s murder victims were black men and boys killed with guns, according to data from the police department.

    Killed with guns, but killed by whom? Ah, if only anyone could answer that question.

    The wealthier white Americans whose votes help determine crime policy “don’t tend to be those who feel the costs”, Pfaff said.

    Yeah, but they also don’t tend to be those doing the killings. Darn it…

    Read More
    • Agree: ben tillman
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Answering the "whom" question does not advance the narrative. But implying that guns are the problem does.

    Problem solution: Arm thugs with knives, clubs, box-openers and swords!
  9. MEH 0910 says:

    The number of knife murders dropped slightly. …

    We need to import more Muslims to perpetrate the violent crimes that Americans are starting to slack off on.

    Read More
  10. neither Trump nor Clinton would have much direct influence, as president, over how cities and states address violence.

    The next President’s selection(s) to the US Supreme Court will have a very direct, major influence on how cities and state address violence, that being as a result of how the USSC attacks or upholds the 2nd Amendment.

    Read More
  11. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I am not sure about Charlotte experiencing a surge in violent crime.

    There is a common local feeling that much of the violence was due to semi-professional agitators from a broader geographical area, and thus unlikely to cause a subsequent local crime surge.

    Although, I am sure a talented data scientist could figure a way to establish controls for such an effect.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JerryC
    The Ferguson riots were also organized by professional, out of town agitators like Lisa Fithian. But the violence in St Louis has continued even after the agitators moved on to greener pastures.
  12. MEH 0910 says:

    Remember when Stephen Jay Gould was always denouncing “reification?” Notice how “violent crime” has become reified into this overwhelming force that keeps affecting blacks.

    Black scientific genius Neil deGrasse Tyson lists 6 favorite books. One of them is Stephen Jay Gould’s The Mismeasure of Man:

    A reminder of what can happen when what passes as science is conducted in a landscape of social, political, and cultural bias. Gould was a paleontologist and evolutionary biologist, and in his seminal 1981 book he provided a history of biological determinism — the idea that the social and economic standing of different groups of people is rooted in hereditary, inborn distinctions — and then marshaled the evidence to definitively refute it.

    Read More
  13. I know Trump is trying to be careful on the race question, but this really needs to be called out.

    The Democrats\Soros\Hillary program of lying about police shootings to gin up the black vote has been the most cynically nasty thing i’ve seen in American politics. Not just the sort of “misguided” policy we get from liberals where they rush in and meddle to “fix” something and end up making it much worse. That is routine for the left. But this was nakedly cynical, Hillary and company absolutely *know* they are lying about cops hunting blacks, know they are offering no policy solution whatsoever and know black anger and any police de-policing would energize the thugs and drive up the murder rate. And they did it anyway.

    Trump should just say Hillary is responsible for 1500 more murders, 10 or so (Trump should get the correct number) assassinations of police and several riots. If you want more murders, more police murdered and more riots–vote Hillary.

    Read More
    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @Desiderius

    Hillary and company absolutely *know* they are lying about cops hunting blacks, know they are offering no policy solution whatsoever and know black anger and any police de-policing would energize the thugs and drive up the murder rate. And they did it anyway.
     
    The rationalization goes like this:

    Sure, cops aren't gunning down blacks wholesale yet, but that's only because we're in charge to keep them in check. If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks, so we need to get blacks to the polls by any means necessary to prevent that from happening.

    Situational ethics.
  14. syonredux says:

    The US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, and both violent crime and mass incarceration disproportionately affect black Americans.

    CRIMETHINK WARNING: So, let’s see, Black Americans are disproportionately affected by violent crime….and I seem to recall reading somewhere that the majority of violent crime (especially crimes like rape and murder) are intra-racial, which means that most of the people inflicting violent crime on Blacks are also Black….which also tends to suggest that the high rate of Black incarceration might have something to do with the fact that Blacks commit lots of violent crimes….

    Read More
  15. @Xyz
    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-not-to-overreact-to-violent-crime-spike-2016-9

    Idiot kids writing articles like the link here. She even mentions that Chicago accounts for half of the increase. But as Steve so eloquently states, the people running Chicago have also been running the White House for the last 8 years.

    That ridiculous journal cranks out crap like this article that sympathetically portrays the narco-voodoo cult of Santa Muerte as worthy of our sensitivity. After all, we need lessons on some of the wonderful cultural enrichment we have coming our way.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Xyz
    Yeah, Henry Blodget has a bunch if milennial kids running the place, writing insanely lefty pieces in between Yelp!ing trendy restaurants and Ubering their way across Manhattan.
  16. JerryC says:

    Love the scare quotes around law and order…I guess that’s a cue to roll your eyes.

    Read More
  17. EdwardM says:
    @Mr. Blank
    That is one of the most unintentionally hilarious articles you've ever posted, Steve. The sheer repetition of excuses and explanations is like something right out of Monty Python. One almost wonders if they're doing it on purpose.

    That was my thought. I tried to count the number of passages that tried to explain away the trend and/or caution against trying to address it. I stopped at a dozen. Everyone quoted, (except for reminding us of Comey’s statements), “even” the conservative, served to put a damper on the headline.

    Luckily it won’t prevent any casual or fair-minded reader from drawing the obvious conclusion.

    Read More
    • Replies: @lavoisier
    I agree. It is becoming increasingly difficult to read articles that ignore the obvious elephant in the room and pretend to be thoughtful reviews of the evidence.

    In our increasingly bizarre world of using numbers and doubtful experts to hide the obvious, I feel violated. The Dark Ages are here again, thanks to the cultural marxists who have infected all aspects of our society. The truth does not matter. What matters is sticking to the narrative at all costs--even at the cost of reason.

    I suspect that fifty years from now, if we still have any semblance of civilization, scientists will find a link between this kind of irrational pretense of rationality and the development of madness and dementia. There must be a cost to lying to oneself over and over and over again.
  18. JerryC says:
    @Anonymous
    I am not sure about Charlotte experiencing a surge in violent crime.

    There is a common local feeling that much of the violence was due to semi-professional agitators from a broader geographical area, and thus unlikely to cause a subsequent local crime surge.

    Although, I am sure a talented data scientist could figure a way to establish controls for such an effect.

    The Ferguson riots were also organized by professional, out of town agitators like Lisa Fithian. But the violence in St Louis has continued even after the agitators moved on to greener pastures.

    Read More
  19. countenance says: • Website

    Some of America’s largest cities, including New York and Los Angeles, saw their murder numbers remain near historic lows in 2015.

    Because those cities are AFFHing their ghetto dindus outside the city limits.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivy
    New York and Los Angeles have expensive housing that is priced out of range of low to mid income people. Asset bubbles do that. People self-deport from cities where they can not afford the housing, let alone the food, transportation, medical and related expenses.
  20. Xyz says:
    @yaqub the mad scientist
    That ridiculous journal cranks out crap like this article that sympathetically portrays the narco-voodoo cult of Santa Muerte as worthy of our sensitivity. After all, we need lessons on some of the wonderful cultural enrichment we have coming our way.

    Yeah, Henry Blodget has a bunch if milennial kids running the place, writing insanely lefty pieces in between Yelp!ing trendy restaurants and Ubering their way across Manhattan.

    Read More
  21. countenance says: • Website

    It seem to be pretty effective at pushing more dead bodies: 1500.

    Very soon, expect to hear a polite PR-friendly sublimated version of this argument:

    “Hey, it’s just thug Ns blasting away other thug Ns, so why are you white people so concerned about it?”

    Until they think they want something out of us (more taxes, more spending, more programs, more gun legislation, ostensibly to fix the problem), then they’ll tell us to freak out of our minds about the extra murders.

    Read More
    • Replies: @David In TN
    They'll bring up black on black murders sometimes when a heinous black on white murder takes place.

    "See," they'll say, "almost all murder is black on black."
  22. Hhsiii says:

    Murder is already up in Charlotte.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/charlotteobserver.relaymedia.com/amp/news/local/crime/article52670115.html?client=safari

    UBN (United Blood Nation) has been killing witnesses, threatened judges, and kidnapped a US Attorney’s father. They killed a white couple last year to stop the husband testifying about a robbery of their mattress store (thwarted by the husband shooting back).

    I think the black police chief and black cop were feeling heat from the white liberal woman mayor to clamp down once the gang activity started resulting in white deaths. My retired black prison guard buddy says the guards fear this crew

    mS-13 is also big in NC. Hispanics have gone from 70,000 to 900,000 or so in North Carolina since 1990.

    Read More
  23. I live in rural Oklahoma and was not at all surprised that there were no race riots following the police shooting in Tulsa, even though there are lots of blacks in Tulsa.

    White people in Oklahoma are heavily armed and blacks know it. If a race riot breaks out in Oklahoma, lots of black people will die. Blacks may love a good riot, but they are not suicidal.

    My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men."

    North Carolina is the new Virginia. It's population is becoming increasingly Non Southern due to transplants from the Northeast and the 3rd World.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Standing up for what is right in NC will earn you the contempt of the Charlotte powers that be. Those Charlotte trolls are the instigators of the transgender bathroom controversy.
  24. Ivy says:
    @countenance
    Some of America’s largest cities, including New York and Los Angeles, saw their murder numbers remain near historic lows in 2015.

    Because those cities are AFFHing their ghetto dindus outside the city limits.

    New York and Los Angeles have expensive housing that is priced out of range of low to mid income people. Asset bubbles do that. People self-deport from cities where they can not afford the housing, let alone the food, transportation, medical and related expenses.

    Read More
  25. Odin says:

    The rising violence was driven by an increase in the murders [of] by black men

    Fixed it for you.

    Read More
  26. Pat Casey says:

    “When my situation aint improvin, I’m tryin to murder everything movin, feel me.”

    That’s a pretty monstrous lyric in what is otherwise a very catchy song. Jay Z smartly obviated criticism of its typical black self-pity by stealing the chorus from Annie. But of course, he made it his own: The School of Hard Knocks is a proud institution. I probably don’t know more about anything than Heather MacDonald, except the African-American psyche. One way to think of so much black on black crime is the understanding that black people do not necessarily prefer black people. The truth is that on a personal level, black people are less racist than white people. Yes they are. Black folks don’t dare encroach on Whitey’s buffer zone by striking up small talk with them as strangers in the street– unless they’re insane– but certain wanton white people know very well that black people nearly light up with a certain gracious levity when you strike up some small talk with them. When my situation aint improvin, I’m tryin to murder everything movin—that is to say, I hate the way white flight makes me feel, and the oreos who leave too never respected me. That’s pretty damn racist yes it is, but to these peoples minds, well who started the hate? I don’t mean to get schmaltzy, I just like black people. But I should have at the moment a more precise figure in my head of the effect immigration has on black employment. And that would be a homerun statistic for Mr. Trump on this night too.

    Read More
  27. Abe says: • Website
    @Mr. Blank
    Why do I feel like I'm going to be hearing "well at least it's not as bad as 1991" for a long, loooong time?

    And why do I suspect that at some point there will be a seamless transition to "it's only slightly higher than 1991, and hey, 1991 wasn't all that bad, remember? Think of all the great music that came out of it!"

    And why do I suspect that at some point there will be a seamless transition to “it’s only slightly higher than 1991, and hey, 1991 wasn’t all that bad, remember? Think of all the great music that came out of it!”

    Liberals are sure good at “using their illusion” (rimshot)

    Read More
  28. Jefferson says:
    @Mis(ter)Anthrope
    I live in rural Oklahoma and was not at all surprised that there were no race riots following the police shooting in Tulsa, even though there are lots of blacks in Tulsa.

    White people in Oklahoma are heavily armed and blacks know it. If a race riot breaks out in Oklahoma, lots of black people will die. Blacks may love a good riot, but they are not suicidal.

    My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men.

    “My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men.”

    North Carolina is the new Virginia. It’s population is becoming increasingly Non Southern due to transplants from the Northeast and the 3rd World.

    Read More
    • Replies: @larry lurker
    A local told me about a third of Charlotte's population (i.e., his friends and associates) is originally from upstate NY, like him.
    , @Jim Don Bob
    The locals say that Cary, NC is an acronym for Containment Area for Recycled Yankees. NC is following Colorado and Oregon in having many blue refugees flock to the state and then demand the same stupidity that they fled.
  29. res says:
    @Beliavsky
    "The rising violence was driven by an increase in the murders of black men, and by an increase in the number of gun murders."

    How many more murders did black men commit in 2015 than 2014?

    Based on arrests 4,347 – 4,224 = 123

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-43

    (Table 43 is the key table for arrests by race)

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?

    If you are interested in a breakdown by victim/offender race look for this table. I have the spreadsheet, not sure if/where it is reproduced on the web.
    Expanded_Homicide_Data_Table_6_Murder_Race_and_Sex_of_Vicitm_by_Race_and_Sex_of_Offender_2015
    scribd has it at: https://www.scribd.com/document/325368883/expanded-homicide-data-table-6-murder-race-and-sex-of-vicitm-by-race-and-sex-of-offender-2015-xls

    You can download all the data at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/downloads/download-printable-files

    Read More
    • Replies: @Boomstick
    If most of the extra murders are happening in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore then they're probably mostly uncleared, and hence the race of the perp can't be ascertained. At least officially.

    The Chicago homicide clearance rate is 26%, Baltimore about 33%, and Houston around 60%.
    , @BostonTea
    "Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?"

    How much low compared to 2014? UCR's arrest table is based on incidents where some information about the offender is known by law enforcement. When the offender age, sex, and race are all reported as unknown, these data are excluded from the table.
    , @Olorin

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?
     
    Bingo.

    That points to another issue: of the actual more murders. Cleared crimes accounts for only those that have been sieved through the legal and administrative channels leading to FBI UCR and suchlike.

    One wonders what the ACTUAL numbers are. If my decades of experience in a 70% black city were any indication, the ACTUAL numbers are manyfold higher.

    But since it's only like gaining a few pounds, it's not important, right? Blacks want to exist outside of "white" law, the law cooperatively stands down, more deaths happen, as lost to memory as the drifting sands of the Sahara.

    And then blacks magically want their lives to matter...while refusing to cooperate with social structures that make lives matter, like murder investigations.

    One cannot of course expect a population with such a low mean IQ to understand that one function of "the law" is to make lives matter.
  30. I used to wonder why Steve quotes so much from the pro-liars at The Guardian the NYT. But I guess it is because they exemplify the form best:

    There is no consensus yet on what factors might be driving a sharp increase in murders

    = Everyone but liberals knows.

    a return to damaging, tough-on-crime policies

    = Tough-on-crime policies are damaging to criminals.

    both violent crime and mass incarceration disproportionately affect black Americans

    = When you disproportionately commit it, it disproportionately affects you.

    There is no evidence of a national murder wave, yet increases in these select cities are indeed a serious problem

    = It would be a “national murder wave” if it were happening in cities where the big media live.

    crime and violence are highly local, and driven by a tangle of so many different factors that it is nearly impossible to say exactly what causes a given increase or decrease. Crime statistics are also easy to over-dramatize

    = Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

    Read More
  31. @Jefferson
    "My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men."

    North Carolina is the new Virginia. It's population is becoming increasingly Non Southern due to transplants from the Northeast and the 3rd World.

    A local told me about a third of Charlotte’s population (i.e., his friends and associates) is originally from upstate NY, like him.

    Read More
  32. Rising violence in 2015 driven by increase in murders of black men and gun crime…

    Throughout its history, the American answer to gun crime was gun “control,” a violent, repressive response to the very real grievances of the gun community. The true root causes of gun crime include substandard gun schools and lack of role models and employment opportunities for guns. Until society stops otherizing guns and stereotyping them as brutal tools of violence, nothing will change. Guns need to know they have a legitimate claim to their rightful place in American society, and America needs to acknowledge its long history of anti-gun discrimination and outright gun bigotry.

    Read More
  33. Arclight says:

    For all the lefties that state that we shouldn’t get too worked up over the total number of homicides because it’s not as bad as the early 90s, they don’t seem to realize (or admit) that this argument basically rests on the premise that blacks accounting for 50% of victims is a normal and acceptable state of affairs.

    So then the question if they don’t want to live with that level of black carnage, what are the reasons for it and what can be done to bring this particular group’s homicide rate in line with the other 87% of the country. I haven’t heard an answer from the left on this yet.

    Read More
  34. @Mark Eugenikos

    Last year, 143 of the city’s murder victims were black men and boys killed with guns, according to data from the police department.
     
    Killed with guns, but killed by whom? Ah, if only anyone could answer that question.

    The wealthier white Americans whose votes help determine crime policy “don’t tend to be those who feel the costs”, Pfaff said.
     
    Yeah, but they also don't tend to be those doing the killings. Darn it...

    Answering the “whom” question does not advance the narrative. But implying that guns are the problem does.

    Problem solution: Arm thugs with knives, clubs, box-openers and swords!

    Read More
  35. @Jefferson
    "My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men."

    North Carolina is the new Virginia. It's population is becoming increasingly Non Southern due to transplants from the Northeast and the 3rd World.

    The locals say that Cary, NC is an acronym for Containment Area for Recycled Yankees. NC is following Colorado and Oregon in having many blue refugees flock to the state and then demand the same stupidity that they fled.

    Read More
  36. @Mis(ter)Anthrope
    I live in rural Oklahoma and was not at all surprised that there were no race riots following the police shooting in Tulsa, even though there are lots of blacks in Tulsa.

    White people in Oklahoma are heavily armed and blacks know it. If a race riot breaks out in Oklahoma, lots of black people will die. Blacks may love a good riot, but they are not suicidal.

    My question is what the hell happened to white men in Charlotte, NC? I saw one report of a white guy driving through the mob waiving a gun. Other than that, just whites cowering in fear. Given that Charlotte is a southern city, I would have expected some white males to stand up and be men.

    Standing up for what is right in NC will earn you the contempt of the Charlotte powers that be. Those Charlotte trolls are the instigators of the transgender bathroom controversy.

    Read More
  37. @Anonymous
    I'm of the mind that the Ferguson Effect is a real phenomenon, but what's to make of the increase in non-black-involved murders?

    I’m of the mind that the Ferguson Effect is a real phenomenon, but what’s to make of the increase in non-black-involved murders?

    Who arrests and deters non-Black criminals and potential criminals?

    Read More
  38. @AnotherDad
    I know Trump is trying to be careful on the race question, but this really needs to be called out.

    The Democrats\Soros\Hillary program of lying about police shootings to gin up the black vote has been the most cynically nasty thing i've seen in American politics. Not just the sort of "misguided" policy we get from liberals where they rush in and meddle to "fix" something and end up making it much worse. That is routine for the left. But this was nakedly cynical, Hillary and company absolutely *know* they are lying about cops hunting blacks, know they are offering no policy solution whatsoever and know black anger and any police de-policing would energize the thugs and drive up the murder rate. And they did it anyway.

    Trump should just say Hillary is responsible for 1500 more murders, 10 or so (Trump should get the correct number) assassinations of police and several riots. If you want more murders, more police murdered and more riots--vote Hillary.

    Hillary and company absolutely *know* they are lying about cops hunting blacks, know they are offering no policy solution whatsoever and know black anger and any police de-policing would energize the thugs and drive up the murder rate. And they did it anyway.

    The rationalization goes like this:

    Sure, cops aren’t gunning down blacks wholesale yet, but that’s only because we’re in charge to keep them in check. If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks, so we need to get blacks to the polls by any means necessary to prevent that from happening.

    Situational ethics.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    " If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks,"

    Why is it never open season on Asians? Do racist KKK police officers in America see Asians as Honorary Whites? Shouldn't the Neo Nazi police force in America declare open season on all Nonwhites? Why aren't these Adolf Hitler pigs bustin more caps on the ching chongs?

  39. A 31.5% homicide spike in two years is a crisis in my book.

    Heavy spinning by NPR today. A murder spike is apparently not an issue if it is limited to a few cities for some reason, but shouldn’t liberals be more concerned if homicide is spiking in Black communities?

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/26/495460107/fbi-violent-crime-rose-slightly-in-2015-murders-up-nearly-11-percent

    Read More
    • Replies: @Triumph104
    NPR's political coverage has been extremely biased this election season and they removed their comment section so listeners can't call them on it. Homicide can't be a problem because that would reflect badly on Democrats. Last week I had to stop listening to NPR's national coverage.
    , @Oleaginous Outrager
    Yes, 'bad' numbers are no problem when the explanation might be bad for the Narrative.

    Funny how we never see the "it's confined mostly to a small number of urban areas" trope when it's time to scream about how "America has the most shootings in the developed world! Guns are EVIL!", as if the US is still that mythical rootin' tootin' and lots o' shootin' Wild West outside of its shittiest cities (looking at you, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, et al.).
  40. Jefferson says:
    @Desiderius

    Hillary and company absolutely *know* they are lying about cops hunting blacks, know they are offering no policy solution whatsoever and know black anger and any police de-policing would energize the thugs and drive up the murder rate. And they did it anyway.
     
    The rationalization goes like this:

    Sure, cops aren't gunning down blacks wholesale yet, but that's only because we're in charge to keep them in check. If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks, so we need to get blacks to the polls by any means necessary to prevent that from happening.

    Situational ethics.

    ” If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks,”

    Why is it never open season on Asians? Do racist KKK police officers in America see Asians as Honorary Whites? Shouldn’t the Neo Nazi police force in America declare open season on all Nonwhites? Why aren’t these Adolf Hitler pigs bustin more caps on the ching chongs?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    It should go without saying that the rationalization is just that, it doesn't have to make sense or have any correspondence to reality. The driving force of course is fear for what the bad guys would do to the corrupt whites behind BLM, et. al., which is very real. So real they can't afford to admit it, especially to themselves.
  41. @Jefferson
    " If the bad guys take over, it will be open season on blacks,"

    Why is it never open season on Asians? Do racist KKK police officers in America see Asians as Honorary Whites? Shouldn't the Neo Nazi police force in America declare open season on all Nonwhites? Why aren't these Adolf Hitler pigs bustin more caps on the ching chongs?

    It should go without saying that the rationalization is just that, it doesn’t have to make sense or have any correspondence to reality. The driving force of course is fear for what the bad guys would do to the corrupt whites behind BLM, et. al., which is very real. So real they can’t afford to admit it, especially to themselves.

    Read More
  42. Boomstick says:
    @res
    Based on arrests 4,347 - 4,224 = 123

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-43
    (Table 43 is the key table for arrests by race)

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I'm guessing the clearance rate is low?

    If you are interested in a breakdown by victim/offender race look for this table. I have the spreadsheet, not sure if/where it is reproduced on the web.
    Expanded_Homicide_Data_Table_6_Murder_Race_and_Sex_of_Vicitm_by_Race_and_Sex_of_Offender_2015
    scribd has it at: https://www.scribd.com/document/325368883/expanded-homicide-data-table-6-murder-race-and-sex-of-vicitm-by-race-and-sex-of-offender-2015-xls

    You can download all the data at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/downloads/download-printable-files

    If most of the extra murders are happening in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore then they’re probably mostly uncleared, and hence the race of the perp can’t be ascertained. At least officially.

    The Chicago homicide clearance rate is 26%, Baltimore about 33%, and Houston around 60%.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Robert Hume
    "If most of the extra murders are happening in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore then they’re probably mostly uncleared, and hence the race of the perp can’t be ascertained. At least officially."

    So perhaps the statistic we want is rate of violent deaths, broken down by race.

    It would be reasonable to assume that The large majority of violent deaths are committed by people of the same race.

    And, from a political point of view, this shows concern for the victims and not desire for punishment of the killers.
  43. @Clifford Brown
    A 31.5% homicide spike in two years is a crisis in my book.

    Heavy spinning by NPR today. A murder spike is apparently not an issue if it is limited to a few cities for some reason, but shouldn't liberals be more concerned if homicide is spiking in Black communities?

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/26/495460107/fbi-violent-crime-rose-slightly-in-2015-murders-up-nearly-11-percent

    NPR’s political coverage has been extremely biased this election season and they removed their comment section so listeners can’t call them on it. Homicide can’t be a problem because that would reflect badly on Democrats. Last week I had to stop listening to NPR’s national coverage.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mokidi
    I recently returned my local NPR station's contribution solicitation with a note complaining about bias and the termination of the comments section instead of the usual check. I added that I would contribute the money to the Trump campaign.
  44. @Clifford Brown
    A 31.5% homicide spike in two years is a crisis in my book.

    Heavy spinning by NPR today. A murder spike is apparently not an issue if it is limited to a few cities for some reason, but shouldn't liberals be more concerned if homicide is spiking in Black communities?

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/26/495460107/fbi-violent-crime-rose-slightly-in-2015-murders-up-nearly-11-percent

    Yes, ‘bad’ numbers are no problem when the explanation might be bad for the Narrative.

    Funny how we never see the “it’s confined mostly to a small number of urban areas” trope when it’s time to scream about how “America has the most shootings in the developed world! Guns are EVIL!”, as if the US is still that mythical rootin’ tootin’ and lots o’ shootin’ Wild West outside of its shittiest cities (looking at you, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, et al.).

    Read More
  45. Jefferson says:

    “Funny how we never see the “it’s confined mostly to a small number of urban areas” trope when it’s time to scream about how “America has the most shootings in the developed world! Guns are EVIL!”

    If 100 percent of Iceland’s population was armed to the teeth with guns, they would still have a significantly lower per capita murder rate than The United States and that’s because they have a minuscule Black and Brown population.

    Read More
  46. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    http://heyjackass.com/2016-race-of-victim-assailant/

    Total Homicides Chicago 557

    Total Homicides White/Other 28

    5% I have looked at maybe half the 28, and half of them are ‘the usual suspects’ — living a life that makes it unsurprising. Drugs or convicted felon and/or living in or next to ghetto.

    These are victim figures, but you can assume that they are intra racial as a rough approximation.

    As far as the cause?

    In explaining a recent uptick in violent crime, the Chicago mayor said cops have gotten “fetal.” He added, “They have pulled back from the ability to interdict. They don’t want to be a news story themselves, they don’t want their career ended early and it’s having an impact.”

    You don’t need to do a lot of heavy thinking to explain it. Police have abandon proactive/quality of life tactics in the worst black neighborhoods. Like clearing corners. They have adopted the phrase, ‘going fetal’. ACLU/DOJ discourage it. There is more ‘attitude’ from BLM. But mostly it is the ‘Youtube effect’.

    So … you have the numbers. The timing of the increases compared to headline events. Police say they are abandoning aggressive tactics. No need to infer their motivation.

    Read More
  47. I dunno, the mere presence of BLM activity doesn’t seem to be enough for a huge jump in crime. I stopped by a BLM rally in Boulder for a few minutes back in July. I’d guess there were about 200 people there. I saw 2 blacks in attendance, plus a handful that could have been just about anything.

    Boulder had 1 murder in 2015, same as 2014. That’s worse than the 0 that took place in 2013 and 2012, but better than the dystopian 2011 homicide rate of 2 murders. So my theory is there’s some kind of X Factor, possibly demographic, that when mixed with race-baiting rhetoric causes all hell to break loose.

    Read More
    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    BLM in Boulder like putting a match to a pile of bricks. BLM in Baltimore like putting a match to gasoline soaked tinder.
  48. Why hasn’t Oakland, traditionally “militant”, seen an increase?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Why hasn’t Oakland, traditionally “militant”, seen an increase?"

    A lot of Blacks are being priced out of Oakland. In the future Oakland will no longer be the Baltimore of the Bay Area.
  49. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Saturday a suburban guy got shot close to Millennium Park/Art Institute. It wasn’t what I would have guessed .. this one is especially bizarre.

    Image of Perp:

    News Story

    http://abc7chicago.com/news/convicted-gun-offender-charged-in-murder-near-millennium-park/1527140/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Yeah, as a former Chicago yuppie, this is not a good-for-real-estate-values incident:

    "Peter Fabbri and two women were walking along South Michigan Avenue near East Monroe Street Saturday night after leaving a wine-tasting event."

    That's like the most urbane address West of Park Avenue.

  50. @Anon
    Saturday a suburban guy got shot close to Millennium Park/Art Institute. It wasn't what I would have guessed .. this one is especially bizarre.

    Image of Perp:

    http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/wls/images/cms/automation/vod/1527462_630x354.jpg

    News Story

    http://abc7chicago.com/news/convicted-gun-offender-charged-in-murder-near-millennium-park/1527140/

    Yeah, as a former Chicago yuppie, this is not a good-for-real-estate-values incident:

    “Peter Fabbri and two women were walking along South Michigan Avenue near East Monroe Street Saturday night after leaving a wine-tasting event.”

    That’s like the most urbane address West of Park Avenue.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Yeah, sometimes the official narrative needs some time to develop.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/local_coverage/2016/09/city_awaits_report_on_ugly_melee
  51. BostonTea says:
    @res
    Based on arrests 4,347 - 4,224 = 123

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-43
    (Table 43 is the key table for arrests by race)

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I'm guessing the clearance rate is low?

    If you are interested in a breakdown by victim/offender race look for this table. I have the spreadsheet, not sure if/where it is reproduced on the web.
    Expanded_Homicide_Data_Table_6_Murder_Race_and_Sex_of_Vicitm_by_Race_and_Sex_of_Offender_2015
    scribd has it at: https://www.scribd.com/document/325368883/expanded-homicide-data-table-6-murder-race-and-sex-of-vicitm-by-race-and-sex-of-offender-2015-xls

    You can download all the data at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/downloads/download-printable-files

    “Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?”

    How much low compared to 2014? UCR’s arrest table is based on incidents where some information about the offender is known by law enforcement. When the offender age, sex, and race are all reported as unknown, these data are excluded from the table.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    The clearance rate for "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" was 61.5% in 2015 and 64.5% in 2014. This info is available at
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances/main
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances
    and the summarized data appears in Tables 25-28.

    Note that arrests can be cleared by arrest or by exceptional means and these cases are not distinguished in the summary. A detailed explanation appears on the pages above. These examples give an idea of what exceptional means indicates:


    Examples of exceptional clearances include, but are not limited to, the death of the offender (e.g., suicide or justifiably killed by police or citizen); the victim’s refusal to cooperate with the prosecution after the offender has been identified; or the denial of extradition because the offender committed a crime in another jurisdiction and is being prosecuted for that offense. In the UCR Program, the recovery of property alone does not clear an offense.
     
    P.S. My original low comment was meant to indicate that I thought the clearance rate for the additional murders (which I believe are mostly inner city murders of blacks) have a low clearance rate. I think it's reasonable to assume a police slowdown/withdrawal would also lower the clearance rate.
  52. Jill says:

    If I were a cop in Chicago I would not even stop to talk to another cop:

    The Chicago Mayor’s agreement with the ACLU:

    “Under state law and an agreement with the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois, Chicago officers now must report far more information about stops — including whether they frisked the person and if an arrest was made.”

    “A retired federal judge will review the Chicago reports to ensure the stops are passing constitutional muster.”

    “…the ACLU gets copies of every single ISR report”

    Chicago cop code is now “stay fetal”

    If you read the comment section you have cops saying they will never make a stop or fill out an ISR.

    http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2016/02/isr-to-change.html

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  53. @countenance
    It seem to be pretty effective at pushing more dead bodies: 1500.

    Very soon, expect to hear a polite PR-friendly sublimated version of this argument:

    "Hey, it's just thug Ns blasting away other thug Ns, so why are you white people so concerned about it?"

    Until they think they want something out of us (more taxes, more spending, more programs, more gun legislation, ostensibly to fix the problem), then they'll tell us to freak out of our minds about the extra murders.

    They’ll bring up black on black murders sometimes when a heinous black on white murder takes place.

    “See,” they’ll say, “almost all murder is black on black.”

    Read More
  54. Jill says:

    Charlotte’s latest black martyr , Keith Scott, previously assaulted his baby’s mama with a gun and beat his baby with his fists (on top of previously shooting at cops):

    http://www.twcnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2016/09/26/court-records-details-keith-scott-s-criminal-history.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Charlotte’s latest black martyr , Keith Scott, previously assaulted his baby’s mama with a gun and beat his baby with his fists (on top of previously shooting at cops):"

    Black men trump women in the vibrant diversity food chain, so don't expect the mainstream media to make a huge deal about Keith Scott beating up a woman and a child.

  55. lavoisier says:
    @EdwardM
    That was my thought. I tried to count the number of passages that tried to explain away the trend and/or caution against trying to address it. I stopped at a dozen. Everyone quoted, (except for reminding us of Comey's statements), "even" the conservative, served to put a damper on the headline.

    Luckily it won't prevent any casual or fair-minded reader from drawing the obvious conclusion.

    I agree. It is becoming increasingly difficult to read articles that ignore the obvious elephant in the room and pretend to be thoughtful reviews of the evidence.

    In our increasingly bizarre world of using numbers and doubtful experts to hide the obvious, I feel violated. The Dark Ages are here again, thanks to the cultural marxists who have infected all aspects of our society. The truth does not matter. What matters is sticking to the narrative at all costs–even at the cost of reason.

    I suspect that fifty years from now, if we still have any semblance of civilization, scientists will find a link between this kind of irrational pretense of rationality and the development of madness and dementia. There must be a cost to lying to oneself over and over and over again.

    Read More
  56. Brutusale says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Yeah, as a former Chicago yuppie, this is not a good-for-real-estate-values incident:

    "Peter Fabbri and two women were walking along South Michigan Avenue near East Monroe Street Saturday night after leaving a wine-tasting event."

    That's like the most urbane address West of Park Avenue.

    Yeah, sometimes the official narrative needs some time to develop.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/local_coverage/2016/09/city_awaits_report_on_ugly_melee

    Read More
  57. The Feds can make an impact on local law enforcement, certainly, but the real power, as usual, lies with the press. Mike Brown’s shooting, one of four hundred plus shooting deaths by cops that year in the US, became a “thing” when the New York Times blew into town, selectively cited Missouri DMV data to “prove” the Ferguson “local white power structure” oppressed local blacks, created and launched BLM, called for Federal intervention, treated Al Sharpton like an arriving dignitary, and successfully made the whiteness of the police force (which was slightly blacker than the editorial board of the New York Times) the problem and the focus of the protesters’ righteous anger.

    The result? Wholesale white disempowerment in Ferguson. Don’t expect any five-years-later-how-did-it-turn-out follow ups. Ferguson will be a mess, of course.

    There is a reason the announcement of the grand jury’s decision not to indict the cop in Ferguson was delayed until 8 pm on a warm Friday evening. I’d like to know who made that decision.

    Read More
  58. res says:
    @BostonTea
    "Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?"

    How much low compared to 2014? UCR's arrest table is based on incidents where some information about the offender is known by law enforcement. When the offender age, sex, and race are all reported as unknown, these data are excluded from the table.

    The clearance rate for “Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter” was 61.5% in 2015 and 64.5% in 2014. This info is available at

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances/main

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances

    and the summarized data appears in Tables 25-28.

    Note that arrests can be cleared by arrest or by exceptional means and these cases are not distinguished in the summary. A detailed explanation appears on the pages above. These examples give an idea of what exceptional means indicates:

    Examples of exceptional clearances include, but are not limited to, the death of the offender (e.g., suicide or justifiably killed by police or citizen); the victim’s refusal to cooperate with the prosecution after the offender has been identified; or the denial of extradition because the offender committed a crime in another jurisdiction and is being prosecuted for that offense. In the UCR Program, the recovery of property alone does not clear an offense.

    P.S. My original low comment was meant to indicate that I thought the clearance rate for the additional murders (which I believe are mostly inner city murders of blacks) have a low clearance rate. I think it’s reasonable to assume a police slowdown/withdrawal would also lower the clearance rate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @BostonTea
    Between 1980-2008 blacks committed:

    64% of homicides
    70% of robberies
    50% of rapes
    45% of aggravated assaults.

    NATIONWIDE.

    [Source: Darrell Steffensmeier, Ben Feldmeyer, Casey T. Harris, Jeffery T. Ulmer, "Reassessing Trends in Black Violent Crime, 1980-2008: Sorting out the 'Hispanic Effect' in Uniform Crime Reports Arrests", Criminology, 2011]
  59. @Boomstick
    If most of the extra murders are happening in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore then they're probably mostly uncleared, and hence the race of the perp can't be ascertained. At least officially.

    The Chicago homicide clearance rate is 26%, Baltimore about 33%, and Houston around 60%.

    “If most of the extra murders are happening in Chicago, Houston, and Baltimore then they’re probably mostly uncleared, and hence the race of the perp can’t be ascertained. At least officially.”

    So perhaps the statistic we want is rate of violent deaths, broken down by race.

    It would be reasonable to assume that The large majority of violent deaths are committed by people of the same race.

    And, from a political point of view, this shows concern for the victims and not desire for punishment of the killers.

    Read More
  60. @ATX Hipster
    I dunno, the mere presence of BLM activity doesn't seem to be enough for a huge jump in crime. I stopped by a BLM rally in Boulder for a few minutes back in July. I'd guess there were about 200 people there. I saw 2 blacks in attendance, plus a handful that could have been just about anything.

    Boulder had 1 murder in 2015, same as 2014. That's worse than the 0 that took place in 2013 and 2012, but better than the dystopian 2011 homicide rate of 2 murders. So my theory is there's some kind of X Factor, possibly demographic, that when mixed with race-baiting rhetoric causes all hell to break loose.

    BLM in Boulder like putting a match to a pile of bricks. BLM in Baltimore like putting a match to gasoline soaked tinder.

    Read More
  61. Olorin says:
    @res
    Based on arrests 4,347 - 4,224 = 123

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-43
    (Table 43 is the key table for arrests by race)

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I'm guessing the clearance rate is low?

    If you are interested in a breakdown by victim/offender race look for this table. I have the spreadsheet, not sure if/where it is reproduced on the web.
    Expanded_Homicide_Data_Table_6_Murder_Race_and_Sex_of_Vicitm_by_Race_and_Sex_of_Offender_2015
    scribd has it at: https://www.scribd.com/document/325368883/expanded-homicide-data-table-6-murder-race-and-sex-of-vicitm-by-race-and-sex-of-offender-2015-xls

    You can download all the data at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/downloads/download-printable-files

    Surprisingly little difference compared to the 1500 more murders. I’m guessing the clearance rate is low?

    Bingo.

    That points to another issue: of the actual more murders. Cleared crimes accounts for only those that have been sieved through the legal and administrative channels leading to FBI UCR and suchlike.

    One wonders what the ACTUAL numbers are. If my decades of experience in a 70% black city were any indication, the ACTUAL numbers are manyfold higher.

    But since it’s only like gaining a few pounds, it’s not important, right? Blacks want to exist outside of “white” law, the law cooperatively stands down, more deaths happen, as lost to memory as the drifting sands of the Sahara.

    And then blacks magically want their lives to matter…while refusing to cooperate with social structures that make lives matter, like murder investigations.

    One cannot of course expect a population with such a low mean IQ to understand that one function of “the law” is to make lives matter.

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  62. Olorin says:

    Dayyum, Steve. That was a lot of Gut-Achingly Stupid to face on a Tuesday morning.

    1,500 more dead bodies = gaining back a couple of pounds.

    Exactly.

    I have wondered most of my life when blacks are going to wake up and realize who their real enemies are. I.e., they are I’d say nearly without exception on the left.

    Of course none of this has to do with crime, or blacks, or murder, or black lives mattering, or anything of the sort.

    It has to do with disabling the Second Amendment and more importantly disabling those of us who stand with the Bill of Rights.

    Once one realizes that, a lot of things become clear. The left cares about no issue nearly so much. Disarming humanity at the whim and will of the massively armed is, quite likely, their single cause. It is the their population/evolutionary strategy stripped bare.

    If you say, “OK, you go first,” they accuse you of wanting them dead, in so doing admitting this is their intent for you. But don’t try to unpack that unless you like to witness histrionics. (I sometimes do, I admit….)

    Leftism is a program of emotion and projection, coupled with violent but denied struggles over resources, territory, and mating. Like a spectacularly bad marriage.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nico
    The modern left's sentiment of urgency for disarmament draws from either Leninist or Rooseveltian doctrine, or perhaps a bit of both.

    Lenin, remember, revised Marx's theories of a working-class uprise to allow for a "proxy" liberation by a "vanguard" army, justifying a dictatorship and absolute monopoly on violence on the part of this latter by the ordinary prole's tendency to submission and attachment to his corporate masters" interests. The utopian vanguard cannot effectively operate if the prole is adequately armed, because he will side at least as often with the forces of tradition.

    The Rooseveltian influence is more complex and less coherent or thought-out, but is at least as dangerous. The right to bear arms was a constitutional guarantee in France until the eve of World War II: as war became imminent and with the internal political situation less stable than ever Daladier wanted to temper the threat of an armed uprising such as had crowned the defeats of Russia in 1917 (but see above for the problem with this logic) and the German Empire in 1918 (BUT... the Russians and Germans were already finished by those respective points: see, gun control freaks have never been logical).

    The Nazi occupation and its Vichy collaborators went further and forced French civilians to surrender nearly all of their firearms, under pain of death. The Nazis understood well that an armed people could not be an occupied people, and that they were in for a hell of an occupation if they did not disarm the French.

    Why did Charles de Gaulle not restore the right to bear arms? I have searched and not found an answer, but I suspect the reason is NATO. If so, it was propitious enough: the 20th century certainly saw its share of anti-American sentiment in Western Europe. NATO in effect amounts to U.S. occupation of European states and their reduction to vassalage. Again: an armed people could not be an occupied people.

    The bottom line is that gun control and disarmament are nothing more than perfectionary measures for the consolidation of monopoly of violence in a central organism. This, along with immigration ("demography is destiny") is an issue on which NO compromise can be made for anyone who values Western society and American freedoms. Once you understand this you can never vote for any candidate who is at a level of government which might influence immigration and gun control and who takes the wrong position on either one: no matter how pro-life, pro-cisgender or anti-tax he may be, he is playing unwittingly or otherwise into the hands of those who would oversee our ultimate downfall.

  63. BostonTea says:
    @res
    The clearance rate for "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" was 61.5% in 2015 and 64.5% in 2014. This info is available at
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances/main
    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/clearances
    and the summarized data appears in Tables 25-28.

    Note that arrests can be cleared by arrest or by exceptional means and these cases are not distinguished in the summary. A detailed explanation appears on the pages above. These examples give an idea of what exceptional means indicates:


    Examples of exceptional clearances include, but are not limited to, the death of the offender (e.g., suicide or justifiably killed by police or citizen); the victim’s refusal to cooperate with the prosecution after the offender has been identified; or the denial of extradition because the offender committed a crime in another jurisdiction and is being prosecuted for that offense. In the UCR Program, the recovery of property alone does not clear an offense.
     
    P.S. My original low comment was meant to indicate that I thought the clearance rate for the additional murders (which I believe are mostly inner city murders of blacks) have a low clearance rate. I think it's reasonable to assume a police slowdown/withdrawal would also lower the clearance rate.

    Between 1980-2008 blacks committed:

    64% of homicides
    70% of robberies
    50% of rapes
    45% of aggravated assaults.

    NATIONWIDE.

    [Source: Darrell Steffensmeier, Ben Feldmeyer, Casey T. Harris, Jeffery T. Ulmer, "Reassessing Trends in Black Violent Crime, 1980-2008: Sorting out the 'Hispanic Effect' in Uniform Crime Reports Arrests", Criminology, 2011]

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  64. I have wondered most of my life when blacks are going to wake up and realize who their real enemies are. I.e., they are I’d say nearly without exception on the left.

    When Samuel L. Jackson can’t hail a cab, the person(s) to properly blame are those who skew the statistics such that the cabbies see a black man as a more likely to be a robber/killer.

    Do wake me when black people disinclined to violence begin to blame those who are inclined for violence for their predicament.

    I figure pigs will be airborne and hell will have frozen over, too.

    It hasn’t happened in the last 150 years.

    Read More
  65. Jefferson says:
    @Anonymous Nephew
    Why hasn't Oakland, traditionally "militant", seen an increase?

    “Why hasn’t Oakland, traditionally “militant”, seen an increase?”

    A lot of Blacks are being priced out of Oakland. In the future Oakland will no longer be the Baltimore of the Bay Area.

    Read More
  66. Jefferson says:
    @Jill
    Charlotte's latest black martyr , Keith Scott, previously assaulted his baby's mama with a gun and beat his baby with his fists (on top of previously shooting at cops):


    http://www.twcnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2016/09/26/court-records-details-keith-scott-s-criminal-history.html

    “Charlotte’s latest black martyr , Keith Scott, previously assaulted his baby’s mama with a gun and beat his baby with his fists (on top of previously shooting at cops):”

    Black men trump women in the vibrant diversity food chain, so don’t expect the mainstream media to make a huge deal about Keith Scott beating up a woman and a child.

    Read More
  67. Nico says:
    @Olorin
    Dayyum, Steve. That was a lot of Gut-Achingly Stupid to face on a Tuesday morning.

    1,500 more dead bodies = gaining back a couple of pounds.
     
    Exactly.

    I have wondered most of my life when blacks are going to wake up and realize who their real enemies are. I.e., they are I'd say nearly without exception on the left.

    Of course none of this has to do with crime, or blacks, or murder, or black lives mattering, or anything of the sort.

    It has to do with disabling the Second Amendment and more importantly disabling those of us who stand with the Bill of Rights.

    Once one realizes that, a lot of things become clear. The left cares about no issue nearly so much. Disarming humanity at the whim and will of the massively armed is, quite likely, their single cause. It is the their population/evolutionary strategy stripped bare.

    If you say, "OK, you go first," they accuse you of wanting them dead, in so doing admitting this is their intent for you. But don't try to unpack that unless you like to witness histrionics. (I sometimes do, I admit....)

    Leftism is a program of emotion and projection, coupled with violent but denied struggles over resources, territory, and mating. Like a spectacularly bad marriage.

    The modern left’s sentiment of urgency for disarmament draws from either Leninist or Rooseveltian doctrine, or perhaps a bit of both.

    Lenin, remember, revised Marx’s theories of a working-class uprise to allow for a “proxy” liberation by a “vanguard” army, justifying a dictatorship and absolute monopoly on violence on the part of this latter by the ordinary prole’s tendency to submission and attachment to his corporate masters” interests. The utopian vanguard cannot effectively operate if the prole is adequately armed, because he will side at least as often with the forces of tradition.

    The Rooseveltian influence is more complex and less coherent or thought-out, but is at least as dangerous. The right to bear arms was a constitutional guarantee in France until the eve of World War II: as war became imminent and with the internal political situation less stable than ever Daladier wanted to temper the threat of an armed uprising such as had crowned the defeats of Russia in 1917 (but see above for the problem with this logic) and the German Empire in 1918 (BUT… the Russians and Germans were already finished by those respective points: see, gun control freaks have never been logical).

    The Nazi occupation and its Vichy collaborators went further and forced French civilians to surrender nearly all of their firearms, under pain of death. The Nazis understood well that an armed people could not be an occupied people, and that they were in for a hell of an occupation if they did not disarm the French.

    Why did Charles de Gaulle not restore the right to bear arms? I have searched and not found an answer, but I suspect the reason is NATO. If so, it was propitious enough: the 20th century certainly saw its share of anti-American sentiment in Western Europe. NATO in effect amounts to U.S. occupation of European states and their reduction to vassalage. Again: an armed people could not be an occupied people.

    The bottom line is that gun control and disarmament are nothing more than perfectionary measures for the consolidation of monopoly of violence in a central organism. This, along with immigration (“demography is destiny”) is an issue on which NO compromise can be made for anyone who values Western society and American freedoms. Once you understand this you can never vote for any candidate who is at a level of government which might influence immigration and gun control and who takes the wrong position on either one: no matter how pro-life, pro-cisgender or anti-tax he may be, he is playing unwittingly or otherwise into the hands of those who would oversee our ultimate downfall.

    Read More
  68. Kylie says:
    @Nico
    The modern left's sentiment of urgency for disarmament draws from either Leninist or Rooseveltian doctrine, or perhaps a bit of both.

    Lenin, remember, revised Marx's theories of a working-class uprise to allow for a "proxy" liberation by a "vanguard" army, justifying a dictatorship and absolute monopoly on violence on the part of this latter by the ordinary prole's tendency to submission and attachment to his corporate masters" interests. The utopian vanguard cannot effectively operate if the prole is adequately armed, because he will side at least as often with the forces of tradition.

    The Rooseveltian influence is more complex and less coherent or thought-out, but is at least as dangerous. The right to bear arms was a constitutional guarantee in France until the eve of World War II: as war became imminent and with the internal political situation less stable than ever Daladier wanted to temper the threat of an armed uprising such as had crowned the defeats of Russia in 1917 (but see above for the problem with this logic) and the German Empire in 1918 (BUT... the Russians and Germans were already finished by those respective points: see, gun control freaks have never been logical).

    The Nazi occupation and its Vichy collaborators went further and forced French civilians to surrender nearly all of their firearms, under pain of death. The Nazis understood well that an armed people could not be an occupied people, and that they were in for a hell of an occupation if they did not disarm the French.

    Why did Charles de Gaulle not restore the right to bear arms? I have searched and not found an answer, but I suspect the reason is NATO. If so, it was propitious enough: the 20th century certainly saw its share of anti-American sentiment in Western Europe. NATO in effect amounts to U.S. occupation of European states and their reduction to vassalage. Again: an armed people could not be an occupied people.

    The bottom line is that gun control and disarmament are nothing more than perfectionary measures for the consolidation of monopoly of violence in a central organism. This, along with immigration ("demography is destiny") is an issue on which NO compromise can be made for anyone who values Western society and American freedoms. Once you understand this you can never vote for any candidate who is at a level of government which might influence immigration and gun control and who takes the wrong position on either one: no matter how pro-life, pro-cisgender or anti-tax he may be, he is playing unwittingly or otherwise into the hands of those who would oversee our ultimate downfall.

    Very informative. Thank you.

    Read More
  69. Mokidi says:
    @Triumph104
    NPR's political coverage has been extremely biased this election season and they removed their comment section so listeners can't call them on it. Homicide can't be a problem because that would reflect badly on Democrats. Last week I had to stop listening to NPR's national coverage.

    I recently returned my local NPR station’s contribution solicitation with a note complaining about bias and the termination of the comments section instead of the usual check. I added that I would contribute the money to the Trump campaign.

    Read More

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