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-Will he sign, or won’t he? – Moscow’s John Bull pub customers tried to second-guess the US President. The pub on the Nikitsky Boulevard in the centre of Moscow is a good watering hole that is frequented by the Foreign Office minor officials and sundry intelligentsia. – He won’t sign his own surrender, fervently said A Pint of Bitter. – No way! He would not like to become a lame duck after just seven months in the White House. The Constitution is on his side! – Oh yes, he will sign, insisted Gin-and-Tonic. – He can’t deny the will of Congress. As for constitution, the courts took over his right to decide on immigration, now the Congress takes over foreign policy. He will decide where to spend his vacation, that’s all.

This is exactly what happened, as you all know. Donald Trump obediently if grudgingly signed the sanctions bill, and decided to spend the vacations playing golf in New Jersey, while his erstwhile buddy Putin departed for a fishing trip in Siberia, and even speared a giant pike after two hour long pursuit in the cold lake. Not as big as one he had caught four years ago, but that was before the US sanctions.

Apparently the bill was not bad enough to send him hiding into bunker. Perhaps Putin had been calmed down by Rex Tillerson’s insistence that the legislation should be regarded “as a sign Americans want Russia to improve relations with the U.S.” for what could be more calming and relaxing than a good laugh? Tillerson’s statement was surely as hilarious as Don’t run, we are your friends scene in the Mars Attacks! movie. Great Hollywood movies often presage the future events.

While at movies, The Game of Thrones seems more apposite to the present situation. President Trump vs. the Swamp is the ultimate battle for dominance, like that of Cersei and Daenerys. Putin’s Russia is an outsider that does not really want to get involved in the struggle beyond cheering the winner. Putin doesn’t want to bend his knee either to the Clinton Collective nor to Trump, though his – and many Russians’ – sympathies were for Trump. If sympathy and preference amount to interference, then the Russians interfered in the US elections, otherwise they didn’t. We know that from the best source: from Seymour Hersh, the most trustworthy US journalist.

The Russian Prime Minister Mr Medvedev summed the situation in a brief and to the point post in his Facebook page, conveniently in Russian and English. “First, the sanctions law ends hopes for improving Russia’s relations with the new US administration. Second, it is a declaration of a full-fledged economic war on Russia. Third, the Trump administration has shown its total weakness by handing over executive power to Congress in the most humiliating way. This changes the power balance in US political circles.”

The Prime Minister is a man whose opinion matters. He is not the weakling that the Russian nationalist opposition branded him. While a President and a Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, on 8.8.8 (Aug 8, 2008, for slow thinkers) he disregarded the US calls and Russians’ divided public opinion, moved the tanks beyond the Caucasus mountains and defeated the arrogant Georgians with their Israeli and American instructors in a brief war. Still he is a liberal, his government carries out liberal policy, he is not seeking confrontation. If he says it’s war, albeit economic one, then it’s war the US declared on Russia.

Still the more important war goes on between the Establishment and the President, and this war is not over. Trump had been humiliated, it is true, he lost a battle but not the war. It is too early to write him off, as Medvedev suggests.

President Putin understood that as he ordered the mass expulsion of the US diplomats before Trump signed the bill, though previously he said he will do it after the bill will become a proper law. If Putin would wait a few days, the expulsion could be considered a response to Trump’s signing. But Putin preferred to make the Congress responsible for the action.

President Trump agreed with Putin, when he twitted: “Our relationship with Russia is at an all-time & very dangerous low. You can thank Congress!” The Russia-baiting senator John McCain replied with “You can thank Putin”, but this line of accusations leads nowhere.

Trump is in one hell of a mess, but he has some solid support. I do not mean the people, I mean the real business sector of America. The Swamp has been fed by the virtual economy of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, mass media, the Federal Reserve, the spy agencies. Their enemies, the people of the real industry, support Trump, and they aren’t likely to surrender. The conflict crossed the Atlantic, and now it rages in Europe, where supporters of the Clinton Collective had found themselves in an unpleasant situation. They’re losing money, for American business does not want to support them anymore.

The Swedish elites, strong supporters of the Clinton Collective, discovered that at their peril. Their great TNC Ericsson suffered huge losses last year. When they have tried to make some deals with American companies on basis of their previous contacts they discovered that the American businessmen are underwhelmed and had sent them home without signing the deal. (I wrote about it previously) Such signals make lasting impression.

Recently there were some emissaries coming to Moscow and asking Putin to take sides in the battle, to get rid of the liberal wing of his the government. But Putin is not keen on it. Russian liberals are still playing ball, they do not interfere with his rule. Putin prefers to keep Russia out of this struggle altogether; if he will fail it won’t be for the lack of trying.

ORDER IT NOW

Sympathies of Putin and his supporters still are with Trump, with American nationalists, for we can imagine a deal that can be reached with them, a deal that will allow Russia to live peacefully in its own niche of the world and of the market. It is hard even to imagine a possible deal with devoted globalists who want to remake the world including Russia after their own image. Still, Putin does not intend to get involved in the intra-American quarrel.

The nearest and the best he could do was waiting for half a year before acting on December expulsion of the Russian diplomats. Now we are entering a new stage, a full-blown Cold War.

Here I must admit that it is not bad for the world, not bad at all. A great harmony between Trump and Putin would be even better, as I described, but Cold War is surely second best solution.

There are too many aggressive American actions all over the world. Before 1990, they were partially blocked by the USSR. Since then, the US could do whatever it wishes, with dire results. Interventions in Afghanistan, Panama, Iraq, and elsewhere would not have happened if there would be some counterweight to the US. And Putin’s Russia didn’t want to take the role of major counterweight. The Russians acted only within very limited territories and by very limited means. They saved Crimea from being turned into a NATO military base; they stopped the destruction of Syria. This is very good, but far from leading global resistance to the Empire. At best, they refused to cooperate with American designs.

If the Cold War accelerates, Russia will be forced to do more. An American foreign policy expert, ex-State Department man, provides a hint: “There are considerable differences between refusing to cooperate with the United States, and working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America. Are Americans ready for a Russia that turns the tables on Washington in Afghanistan, providing the Taliban with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters and jets? Or a Russia that signs new trade deals with North Korea and works to stabilize the Kim regime’s struggling economy? Or perhaps a Russia that provides equipment and training to anti-American terrorist groups?”

Surprisingly, these measures would only mirror American actions. The US provided al Qaeda in Afghanistan and in Syria (where it is called Al Nusra) with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian jets, or even shot down Syrian jets. The US works to stabilize the rotten Kiev regime. The US provided equipment and training to anti-Russian terrorists in the Caucasus, in Syria and in the Ukraine.

But why stop at these measures? A la guerre comme à la guerre. Russians could return their ICBMs to Cuba and move them to Venezuela, encourage the white militias of Montana, actively support the independence of Texas and California, and that still would remain within a mirroring of US actions. What is more important, these and other measures would be good for the people of the world, including American citizens.

By voting for President Trump, the people of America manifested their will to end foreign wars, to end immigration into their country, to dismantle NATO (Candidate Trump called it “obsolete”), to stop the practice of regime change. The will of the American people should be done.

The developments of last six months in the US amount to a coup d’état. The elected President Trump has been hunted, persecuted, stripped of his powers by the Neocon gang of warmongers. They usurped the power vested in the President by the American people. It would be good if Russia were to help the American people to restore democracy in their land.

Provided that the usurpers want to unleash the dogs of war upon Korea and Venezuela, upon Syria and Iran, provided that they insist to continue their unlawful occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, of Germany and France, provided that they interfere with the elections in all European and Latin American states, and hinder free trade for Russians and Europeans, resisting their policies would be good, moral and legal in the highest sense of the word. And the Cold War will give those who resist the usurpers – the nuclear shield and the nuclear sword.

A Cold War may save Venezuela, Iran and Korea from the impending US intervention, it may roll back the US occupation forces. It will be beneficial for the world.

And it will be beneficial for Americans. The worst Putin can dream to do against the US: forcing the US to close its military bases, end their interventions and regime changes, destroying the Federal Reserve and the position of US Dollar in international trade, will be good for you. Your country will not invade the world and invite the world. Americans will again have work, and meaningful work. Your country will blossom.

It will be also beneficial for the Russians. Not in the sense you’d expect. Putin’s authoritarian regime gave the new Russian nobility of money and state positions too much leeway. They built the biggest yachts, they threw money like there was no tomorrow, while ordinary Russians had a very, very modest way of life. Deputy Prime Minister Mr Igor Shuvalov flies his wife’s corgis in his private jet and owns $100 million worth real estate, while average Russian salary (excepting Moscow and St Petersburg) is around $200 per month. Before the sanctions, rich Russians did not give a damn about their less fortunate fellow citizens. They went for holidays to Cote d’Azur, they sent their children to study at Oxford and Yale. They were as removed from ordinary Russians as Leo Tolstoy’s nobles were.

The sanctions helped a bit. Some of the Putin’s officials have been forbidden to travel and thus they were forced to discover modest discomforts of their homeland. If the Cold War will cut them off their properties in the West and will annihilate their offshore savings, they will contribute more to their own country.

They surely do not want that; that is why the new rich of Putin’s Russia are the force against Cold War. They already call for a surrender to US mercy. The new Cold War will make these people irrelevant, as the US communists became irrelevant in the harsh climate of Cold War I.

ORDER IT NOW

The sanctions law is not a bad thing for Europe, too. By meddling in European elections, the US created a comprador political class. These blind followers of American invade/invite liberals were a real disaster for Europeans. With the advent of Trump, they began to get weaned off the American tit. Sanctions are likely to strike the Europeans’ tender spot, their pockets. They are already annoyed by what they consider exterritoriality of American law, by heavy fines applied to European banks for doing things forbidden in the US, but perfectly legal in Europe, like trading with Iran. The US attack on their supply of cheaper Russian gas is likely to release them from their American tenets. So it is also positive thing.

In short, the new Cold War II is a good deal. Yes, harmony would be better, but until it comes, give us Cold War!

* * *

P.S. I’d like to conclude on this upbeat note, but as I am paid neither by Putin nor by Trump, I’d add that Cold War is not here yet. Putin, despite his macho ways, is a very cautious politician. He is not rushing into more confrontation with the US than it is strictly necessary. He is ready to wait.

We observed it in the case of diplomats. Obama expelled 35 diplomats, Putin patiently waited for seven months. During this waiting time, he reminded of the debt many times. Only met with American stonewalling, he decided to act, and then he expelled twenty times more diplomats. (The exact number is not clear yet, but it is about 700 carriers of US diplomatic passport.) This is Russian style. Russians procrastinate, stall, postpone, and when you think they forgot or gave up they produce a lot of quick action.

Now, after the sanctions, Putin’s Russia voted today Saturday Aug 5 in the UN Security Council for the US-proposed draft with new sanctions against North Korea. The U.S.-drafted resolution bans North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. It also prohibits countries from increasing the current numbers of North Korean labourers working abroad, bans new joint ventures with North Korea and any new investment in current joint ventures, says Reuters. Thus Russia is punishing itself (it is an importer of Korean goods, it employs Korean workers and there are quite a few Russian – North Korean joint ventures) and sanctioning its North Korean ally while doing American bidding.

I regret this decision, but this is Putin: he does not want to aggravate the Russia-US rift. He is ready to launch a counterstrike, if necessary, but he is not in a rush to Doomsday. He does not want to give a chance to both Cersei and Daenerys to unite against him. He’d rather procrastinate a bit more, while the two queens fight it out. I’d prefer very, very cold war with a lot of ice and a twist of lemon, but then, I didn’t pursue a pike for two hours in cold Siberian water.

Israel Shamir can be reached at adam@israelshamir.net

This article was first published at The Unz Review.

 
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  1. It’s all that rat b***ard Putin’s fault. If he wouldn’t be so cautious, dare I say reasonable, and measured in his dealings with the US, they would have already launched the pre-emptive strike to take out Russia’s strategic forces.

    Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn’t decide to unholster the arsenal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @white noise
    "Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn’t decide to unholster the arsenal."

    Uh? With relative impunity? I don't doubt that the neocons are itching to push the buttons, but they won't... Even these psycopaths understand that Russia has more nuclear power than the USA, currently. If relative impunity means that erasing who knows how many American big cities from the face of Earth is unimportant, then ok, I guess you can call it "relative impunity."

    Putin said: A preemptive strike from any side would probably mean that nobody would survive. He means in the world. That was/is a wise thing to say.

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  2. Brabantian says: • Website

    Mr Israel Shamir is quite wrong when he claims above that Seymour Hersh is « the most trustworthy US journalist » … Sy Hersh is a psy-op, a dis-info agent of some decades (see below). Hersh’s currently famous video & leak ‘debunking Russia-gate’, is a Trojan horse cover for a very ugly deception.

    Amidst Hersh’s staged ‘leak’ – nicely pro-Trump to fool us – Hersh sells us a dodgy claim that Seth Rich was, he assures us, definitely NOT killed by mafias linked to Hillary Clinton … but by some random street thug, according to Hersh’s amazing ‘secret inside sources’ he always has when he is running a US gov psy-op … this unknown ‘street thug killed Seth Rich’, but ‘got scared’ so didn’t take Seth Rich’s wallet … uh-huh

    Hersh is also trying to distract us from the fact that we now have a string of people who are dead or in prison after contacting what are known as the oily US-Israeli intel frauds of Wikileaks & also The Intercept, which are in fact ‘rat traps’ to help identify, silence & kill real dissidents duped into contacting them.

    Wikileaks may have helped kill both Seth Rich, & another anti-Hillary leaker, Peter W Smith, also dead after contacting Wikileaks, with Assange absurdly claiming he never got any Smith files. Tho Assange posted a ‘reward’ for info about Seth Rich – funny how the USA international financial dragnet doesn’t close Wikileaks fat bank accounts – Assange arguably may have set up the killing.

    Just to remind that, years ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski & Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, both admitted that ‘not really living in the London Ecuador Embassy’ Julian Assange, & Wikileaks itself, are USA-Israeli intel agency frauds, the leaks all selected & controlled. Assange was the dry run for another fraud, that of Rothschild employee & ex-gay-p-rnographer Gleen Greenwald, who pumped the young friend of Dick Cheney & the Brzezinski family, ‘Edward Snowden’ … who first claimed to ‘leak’ to Dick Cheney’s biographer at the Washington Post … with many other proofs of the fraud – a fraud Putin himself hints at, tho he plays along, not wishing to over-provoke the USA as Shamir states above – starting point on the Snowden fraud here:

    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/09/21/russia-govt-report-snowden-greenwald-are-cia-frauds/

    Assange & Greenwald & Snowden of course recommend the ‘TOR’ browser developed by United States Naval Research Laboratory employees working for US intel, as the ‘safe’ way to contact them, uh-huh, really secure

    In younger days, Seymour Hersh made his bones as a fake ‘brave investigative reporter’ who like other ‘limited hang-outs’ of the time, Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, etc, claimed the official JFK assassination story, lone gunman Oswald etc, was all perfectly fine & dandy … the reward for all these people was their later fame.

    Hersh and all of these fakers are totally anti 9-11 truth, against even questioning the official narrative – Seymour Hersh, Hersh’s current media partner Eric Zuesse, Glenn Greenwald, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange … all of these dis-info people say the US official 9-11 story is just great, Israel had nothing to do with it, don’t talk about the arrested ‘dancing Israelis’ or the ‘Israeli art students’ photographed in the Twin Towers with boxes of bomb detonator components a few weeks before 9-11, the pix in the New York Times, no less

    http://www.newnationalist.net/2017/03/02/world-trade-centers-infamous-91st-floor-israeli-art-student-project/

    Seymour Hersh – card-carrying member of the intel agency psy-op confusion brigade – also sold a greasy, absurd alt version of the ‘Osama bin Laden assassination in 2011′ fake story, Hersh claiming that Pakistani leaders helped to murder bin Laden & toss his body pieces from a helicopter, in total insult to their own Muslim religion HA. Whereas the actual evidence points to Osama bin Laden having died a decade earlier, shortly after the 9-11 attacks of which, in fact, the real bin Laden denied being involved.

    Read More
    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
    Hersh ended the Vietnam war by one photograph, My Lai, alas his description on how Obama had Bin Laden murdered had not a similar effect.
    , @Smiddy
    So I suppose Wikileaks blowing the whistle on Iraq during the Bush admin was to the globalist's agenda?...

    So I suppose pedogate was only controlled information that the globalists wanted to get out as well?... Even though the corporate media has been locking that story down like their lives depended on it... Also funny how they release pedogate the day after Trump's pussygate was made public... Whoever backs Wikileaks is in some type of alliance with Trump...

    Wikileaks is the result of the NWO-autonomous joint Russian-Israeli tech sector, and you don't even know that Israeli Nationalists (e.g. Bibi, believe it or not, even though they colluded on 9/11, but I suppose the globalists wanted Israel to call out Soros last month smh) are opposing the Globalists/Rothschilds these days, so I suppose that shows how much you know. You don't even know that there is a split between the "Zionists", hell you probably think the Rothschilds/NWO are loyal to Jews and Israel before anything. Believe it or not, to some degree, they even use Israel as a front, and Israel has been biting their hand since atleast Contra (Carter was the bankster's pick they did not want Reagan).

    All that said I actually agree on your original premise of Seymour but then you take it on a tangent. And upon closer observation you're just another one of those emotional, "its all one giant conspiracy" pundits.
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  3. @Brabantian
    Mr Israel Shamir is quite wrong when he claims above that Seymour Hersh is « the most trustworthy US journalist » ... Sy Hersh is a psy-op, a dis-info agent of some decades (see below). Hersh's currently famous video & leak 'debunking Russia-gate', is a Trojan horse cover for a very ugly deception.

    Amidst Hersh's staged 'leak' - nicely pro-Trump to fool us - Hersh sells us a dodgy claim that Seth Rich was, he assures us, definitely NOT killed by mafias linked to Hillary Clinton ... but by some random street thug, according to Hersh's amazing 'secret inside sources' he always has when he is running a US gov psy-op ... this unknown 'street thug killed Seth Rich', but 'got scared' so didn't take Seth Rich's wallet ... uh-huh

    Hersh is also trying to distract us from the fact that we now have a string of people who are dead or in prison after contacting what are known as the oily US-Israeli intel frauds of Wikileaks & also The Intercept, which are in fact 'rat traps' to help identify, silence & kill real dissidents duped into contacting them.

    Wikileaks may have helped kill both Seth Rich, & another anti-Hillary leaker, Peter W Smith, also dead after contacting Wikileaks, with Assange absurdly claiming he never got any Smith files. Tho Assange posted a 'reward' for info about Seth Rich - funny how the USA international financial dragnet doesn't close Wikileaks fat bank accounts - Assange arguably may have set up the killing.

    Just to remind that, years ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski & Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu, both admitted that 'not really living in the London Ecuador Embassy' Julian Assange, & Wikileaks itself, are USA-Israeli intel agency frauds, the leaks all selected & controlled. Assange was the dry run for another fraud, that of Rothschild employee & ex-gay-p-rnographer Gleen Greenwald, who pumped the young friend of Dick Cheney & the Brzezinski family, 'Edward Snowden' ... who first claimed to 'leak' to Dick Cheney's biographer at the Washington Post ... with many other proofs of the fraud - a fraud Putin himself hints at, tho he plays along, not wishing to over-provoke the USA as Shamir states above - starting point on the Snowden fraud here:
    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/09/21/russia-govt-report-snowden-greenwald-are-cia-frauds/

    Assange & Greenwald & Snowden of course recommend the 'TOR' browser developed by United States Naval Research Laboratory employees working for US intel, as the 'safe' way to contact them, uh-huh, really secure

    In younger days, Seymour Hersh made his bones as a fake 'brave investigative reporter' who like other 'limited hang-outs' of the time, Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, etc, claimed the official JFK assassination story, lone gunman Oswald etc, was all perfectly fine & dandy ... the reward for all these people was their later fame.

    Hersh and all of these fakers are totally anti 9-11 truth, against even questioning the official narrative - Seymour Hersh, Hersh's current media partner Eric Zuesse, Glenn Greenwald, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange ... all of these dis-info people say the US official 9-11 story is just great, Israel had nothing to do with it, don't talk about the arrested 'dancing Israelis' or the 'Israeli art students' photographed in the Twin Towers with boxes of bomb detonator components a few weeks before 9-11, the pix in the New York Times, no less
    http://www.newnationalist.net/2017/03/02/world-trade-centers-infamous-91st-floor-israeli-art-student-project/

    Seymour Hersh - card-carrying member of the intel agency psy-op confusion brigade - also sold a greasy, absurd alt version of the 'Osama bin Laden assassination in 2011' fake story, Hersh claiming that Pakistani leaders helped to murder bin Laden & toss his body pieces from a helicopter, in total insult to their own Muslim religion HA. Whereas the actual evidence points to Osama bin Laden having died a decade earlier, shortly after the 9-11 attacks of which, in fact, the real bin Laden denied being involved.

    Hersh ended the Vietnam war by one photograph, My Lai, alas his description on how Obama had Bin Laden murdered had not a similar effect.

    Read More
    • Replies: @bjondo
    I've read that My lai was first reported in France, Le Mond. My Lai was well known in Vietnam and was a medium level atrocity in America's rolodex of atrocities.

    Not sure quite why Hersh is such a hero for re reporting an atrocity well known except of course to the baboons of USA.

    I don't trust him either. Only part of the story gets reported.

    I think Israel Shamir sometimes is too polite and respectful.
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  4. “And it will be beneficial for Americans. The worst Putin can dream to do against the US: forcing the US to close its military bases, end their interventions and regime changes, destroying the Federal Reserve and the position of US Dollar in international trade, will be good for you. Your country will not invade the world and invite the world. Americans will again have work, and meaningful work. Your country will blossom.”

    Right on… These changes alone would practically save the world, not just America. Maybe the most important factor would be DESTROYING THE FEDERAL RESERVE, which has always had Jews at the helm.

    Of all evils, the Federal Reserve, which is NOT a part of the Federal government, but a fucking foreign bankers cartel, is the most pernicious.

    Read More
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  5. @The Alarmist
    It's all that rat b***ard Putin's fault. If he wouldn't be so cautious, dare I say reasonable, and measured in his dealings with the US, they would have already launched the pre-emptive strike to take out Russia's strategic forces.

    Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn't decide to unholster the arsenal.

    “Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn’t decide to unholster the arsenal.”

    Uh? With relative impunity? I don’t doubt that the neocons are itching to push the buttons, but they won’t… Even these psycopaths understand that Russia has more nuclear power than the USA, currently. If relative impunity means that erasing who knows how many American big cities from the face of Earth is unimportant, then ok, I guess you can call it “relative impunity.”

    Putin said: A preemptive strike from any side would probably mean that nobody would survive. He means in the world. That was/is a wise thing to say.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    A "bolt out of the blue" would likely catch all the Russian ICBMs in their silos or in garrison. The subs would likely be caught in port or easily hunted down if on patrol. Bombers would likely not get through. ASAT would take out any orbiting threat.

    The Russians know they have very little time to order retaliation even with a launch on warning posture, so they'd have to go first, and the reserve forces of the US nuclear arsenal would finish them off in any case.
    , @Logan
    In the early 60s, at the time of the Cuban crisis, the total megatonnage of all Bombs was somewhere upwards of 10,000. Since that time all(?) of the really big Bombs have been gotten rid of, as smaller Bombs will do the job fine with better accuracy, and in addition the total number of Bombs has gone way, way down.

    As a result, the total megatons of all Bombs today is somewhere in the vicinity of 500.

    That's still a lot of big booms, but 500 is a LOT less than 10,000.

    The risk of extermination of humanity has presumably been proportionately reduced.

    BTW, it is surprisingly difficult to find info on total megatons, which would seem to be an important metric to track.
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  6. Russia is a side-show. The main event is China. Fortunately foggy bottom and the swamp buy the distraction and the big show continues. The longer the focus is on Russia and not China the better the chance for Europe, Asia and Africa to avoid further US meddling.

    http://robertmagill.wordpress.com

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  7. @white noise
    "Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn’t decide to unholster the arsenal."

    Uh? With relative impunity? I don't doubt that the neocons are itching to push the buttons, but they won't... Even these psycopaths understand that Russia has more nuclear power than the USA, currently. If relative impunity means that erasing who knows how many American big cities from the face of Earth is unimportant, then ok, I guess you can call it "relative impunity."

    Putin said: A preemptive strike from any side would probably mean that nobody would survive. He means in the world. That was/is a wise thing to say.

    A “bolt out of the blue” would likely catch all the Russian ICBMs in their silos or in garrison. The subs would likely be caught in port or easily hunted down if on patrol. Bombers would likely not get through. ASAT would take out any orbiting threat.

    The Russians know they have very little time to order retaliation even with a launch on warning posture, so they’d have to go first, and the reserve forces of the US nuclear arsenal would finish them off in any case.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Captain Nemo
    You seem like a singularly competent military expert, The Alarmist... LOL!

    Yup, that's why the US is in panic because of North Korea feeble ICBM's... Because it can even take out all the Russian ones...

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    The idea of US "nuclear primacy" is a neocon fantasy.
    , @anonymous
    The christian west (you keep electing the same evil mofers, so...) is out of its evil fcuking mind, that such a situation can even be considered!

    With great Power, comes great Evil.

    The white race, which will never peacefully relinquish its hegemony, will forever be proof of that.
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  8. LondonBob says:

    Mr Shamir should look up when President Taft was forced to abrogate the Russo-American Friendship Treaty of 1832.

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  9. Logan says:
    @white noise
    "Seriously, Vlad knows the Neocons are itching to finally take Russia off the world stage and that the US is more than equipped to do it with relative impunity. All he can do is watch his step and hope the fastest draw in the west doesn’t decide to unholster the arsenal."

    Uh? With relative impunity? I don't doubt that the neocons are itching to push the buttons, but they won't... Even these psycopaths understand that Russia has more nuclear power than the USA, currently. If relative impunity means that erasing who knows how many American big cities from the face of Earth is unimportant, then ok, I guess you can call it "relative impunity."

    Putin said: A preemptive strike from any side would probably mean that nobody would survive. He means in the world. That was/is a wise thing to say.

    In the early 60s, at the time of the Cuban crisis, the total megatonnage of all Bombs was somewhere upwards of 10,000. Since that time all(?) of the really big Bombs have been gotten rid of, as smaller Bombs will do the job fine with better accuracy, and in addition the total number of Bombs has gone way, way down.

    As a result, the total megatons of all Bombs today is somewhere in the vicinity of 500.

    That’s still a lot of big booms, but 500 is a LOT less than 10,000.

    The risk of extermination of humanity has presumably been proportionately reduced.

    BTW, it is surprisingly difficult to find info on total megatons, which would seem to be an important metric to track.

    Read More
    • Replies: @white noise
    Putin was probably thinking of the radiation, which can last many years, and can be transported far by the wind and rain and rivers, and even sewage. In any case, I hope we won't have to test just how bad a nuclear war can be.
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  10. @The Alarmist
    A "bolt out of the blue" would likely catch all the Russian ICBMs in their silos or in garrison. The subs would likely be caught in port or easily hunted down if on patrol. Bombers would likely not get through. ASAT would take out any orbiting threat.

    The Russians know they have very little time to order retaliation even with a launch on warning posture, so they'd have to go first, and the reserve forces of the US nuclear arsenal would finish them off in any case.

    You seem like a singularly competent military expert, The Alarmist… LOL!

    Yup, that’s why the US is in panic because of North Korea feeble ICBM’s… Because it can even take out all the Russian ones…

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    They can't demand the big budgets or further fill in the offensive gaps around the Russians and Chinese if they don't keep us all frightened. The Norks are a convenient whipping boy.
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  11. Moi says:

    Putin is weak–he voted in support of more sanctions on the DPRK. Sad that China also went along with this hypocrisy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wally
    "Weak"?

    How does acting in Russia's best interests indicate weakness?
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    The DPRK is a friend of sorts, being one of the few countries that recognized Crimea, but ultimately it is China's ward and Russia would be wise to follow China's direction there.
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  12. Mr Shamir is an author in whose articles I always have difficulty finding a common thread. A few points: he speaks of “a deal that will allow Russia to live peacefully in its own niche of the world and of the market”. That would be very nice, but, of course, the problem is precisely Putin’s refusal to live in his own niche of the world. Clearly for such a “deal” to be possible, Putin must withdraw from Ukraine, to say nothing of Transnistria, South Ossetia etc. Secondly, I’d love to know where Mr Shamir gets the idea that there was ever any plan to turn Crimea into a NATO base or even to expel the Russian navy base already there. As for “working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America”, “the Taliban with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters and jets”, “new trade deals with North Korea and works to stabilize the Kim regime’s struggling economy” or “Russia that provides equipment and training to anti-American terrorist groups”, the more the merrier! The more Putin gets into open conflict with the US the better!

    Read More
    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Wally
    I remind our Zionist friend that the eastern Ukraine people voted overwhelmingly to return to Russia. They will not go back.

    Yes. we realize that Jews First Zionists wants as much "open conflict" as possible, as long as US gentile blood is being spilled.

    The True Cost of Parasite Israel
    Forced US taxpayers money to Israel goes far beyond the official numbers.
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-true-cost-of-israel/

    Israel's Dirty Little Secret
    How it drives US policies exploiting a spineless Congress and White House
    http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/israels-dirty-little-secret/

    How to Bring Down the Elephant in the Room
    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/how-to-bring-down-the-elephant-in-the-room/

    Israeli occupied territories
    https://codoh.com/media/files/cartoon24s.png

    'Join the US army, Fight for Israel
    http://68.media.tumblr.com/639563970a638b606f4adb0ef05c778b/tumblr_inline_o7t4eewwJn1r75mb5_500.jpg

    , @bjondo
    Which DC neocon cubicle do you occupy.

    Of course, you could be satire.

    , @white noise
    There is a famous recorded phone conversation where American politicians discuss effecting a coup d'etat in Ukraine. This developed into the Maidan, and the ousting of President Yanukovich, who was loyal to Putin. John McCain was quick to visit the new government. McCain has been involved in many similar interventionist episodes in several countries, so that was suspicious.

    It is conjecture to think if there was a plan to install a NATO base, but so, in all appearance, the coup was engineered by the American government. At first, Putin claimed that Russia intervened "to protect the Russian-speaking people" in Crimea. But later, he said that it was in fact a strategic move, to protect the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Most likely, he decided to invade Crimea when he saw that Yanukovich fell and had to flee for his life... His next move, which was to invade East Ukraine (through proxies in this case) shows that he got nervous with the change of government in Kiev, which announced a plan to join NATO and EU.
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  13. @Captain Nemo
    You seem like a singularly competent military expert, The Alarmist... LOL!

    Yup, that's why the US is in panic because of North Korea feeble ICBM's... Because it can even take out all the Russian ones...

    They can’t demand the big budgets or further fill in the offensive gaps around the Russians and Chinese if they don’t keep us all frightened. The Norks are a convenient whipping boy.

    Read More
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  14. Beckow says:

    Cold war is not a war. And the last one wasn’t one either. It is simply another word for hostility. The hostility gets worse, or sometimes better, each side tries to hurt the other in all the usual ways: attack allies, hurt economically, demonize in the media, try attacking key persons among the enemy, etc… This has always be done, France and England had spent hundreds of years in this form of a ‘cold war’, or – on a smaller scale – Denmark and Sweden, and many others. Only when it actually turned into a hot war with actual fighting each other, only then there would be a war. War is too serious a business to devalue linguistically. Let’s not inflate what we have today into what it clearly is not.

    The key question is not the level of insanity among the neo-cons, or who would ‘win’ a nuclear war (who would want to?). I think the key still unanswered question is why are so many Washington courtiers escalating the hostility with Russia. I have seen different explanations: wanting Russia’s resources, eager ammunition sellers, disappointed Clinton clan hangers-on, pipelines through Syrian deserts, atavistic ethnic hatreds, even belated bitterness over grandma’s pogrom stories, but none of them – or even all of them together – really satisfy. On closer examination each one of those reasons is more nuanced and not compelling enough.

    So, why really? Is this a force on its own in the DC ruling establishment court? Is it something that in an almost Tolstoyan fashion is simply a flow of history, and irresistible mental force that joins black inner-city politicians with Du Pont circle think-tank buffet aficionados, ambitious media scribes with Georgetown professors on a sugar high from too many cupcakes? What the … is going on in their minds? How do you get extreme identity leftists from Baltimore inner city and small city Texas ‘lord-is-coming’ types to sing like a well coordinated choir? This is embarrassing because of its stupidity and total disregard for consequences. As if we are dealing with children.

    Regarding Trump: historically a ruler so far out of sync with the court that surrounds him, but with strong popular support, either perished in an internal coup of some kind, or he asserted himself by a drastic clean-up of the courtiers. (Or in a few cases, he would just give up and go hunting, or to play golf). I think we are in for some turbulence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    So, why really?
     
    A thoughtful post.

    Not even close to be qualified in those matters, the same topic has been badgering me since this "Russians this/that" erupted all over the place.

    Read article, recently, trying to explain it by angle "Protestant/Puritan vs Orthodox".

    But, and now I am really going out of reservation, how about this:
    The essential need of a human to have OTHER....as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life...stuff like that.
    Say, related to "Star Wars" makeup....the need for a certain myth for a human psyche.
    I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain.
    As that movie "Forbidden planet"...superego/ego/ID.

    Anyway.....

    But, in any case, the topic should get more attention around.

    Would you have a theory?
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  15. Joe Wong says:

    Pentagon and Department of Energy requested 1 trillion to update US nuclear arsenal, such action simply means all US ICBMs are not at fly-worth conditions and “bolt out of the blue” is a fantasy.

    Read More
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  16. If the USA could do successful first strikeon either Russia or China or both, it would have done so.

    Read More
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  17. It appears that the vote in the Security Council had been initiated by China, as the Chinese are very worried by the developments and prefer to try more diplomacy. Russia followed its Chinese ally. Makes sense.

    Read More
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  18. Also, Putin isn’t trying to avoid giving the USA some excuse to go to war against Russia, if they wanted to, the. USA would conjure up the pretext, learn your history. He hopes for some counterbalance to the Dragon and doesn’t want to close the door on working with the USA on this.

    Russia is playing a double game with China. It’s does not want to be a USA dog yet doesn’t real want a dominant China.

    If Russia undermines China to much, more than it has, it will become one of the USA’s satraps. So what will it do?

    Putin I would say is showing the lethargy of being confronted with 2 outcomes he doesn’t like. Regardless of how rational he has been trained to be, such training tends to involve suppressing the emotions one way or another.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beckow
    It takes a lot to destroy a country, even to turn it into a satrapy. We are in very early stages of this process after literally decades of trying. Any 'outcomes' are way, way in the future, if any would happen at all. The interplay among major geo-political countries moves at snail pace and the changes are very gradual.

    From Russia's point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations - and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn't play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no 'outcomes', just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase - and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?

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  19. Beckow says:
    @ThatDamnGood
    Also, Putin isn't trying to avoid giving the USA some excuse to go to war against Russia, if they wanted to, the. USA would conjure up the pretext, learn your history. He hopes for some counterbalance to the Dragon and doesn't want to close the door on working with the USA on this.

    Russia is playing a double game with China. It's does not want to be a USA dog yet doesn't real want a dominant China.

    If Russia undermines China to much, more than it has, it will become one of the USA's satraps. So what will it do?

    Putin I would say is showing the lethargy of being confronted with 2 outcomes he doesn't like. Regardless of how rational he has been trained to be, such training tends to involve suppressing the emotions one way or another.

    It takes a lot to destroy a country, even to turn it into a satrapy. We are in very early stages of this process after literally decades of trying. Any ‘outcomes’ are way, way in the future, if any would happen at all. The interplay among major geo-political countries moves at snail pace and the changes are very gradual.

    From Russia’s point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations – and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn’t play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no ‘outcomes’, just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase – and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    "self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. "

    Why self-defeating? It kind of worked. That Russia annexed Crimea is not really a big g deal. They do not care about Crimea. There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base or Jewish colony as some say. That they act upset is just posturing. Their argument is legalistic. Technically Russia broke international law. But they succeeded up to some point of prying large chunk of land from Russia's direct sphere of influence and managed to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia. For people who do not consider peace and harmony to be the highest value the Maidan operation was a success.
    , @white noise
    "From Russia’s point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations – and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn’t play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no ‘outcomes’, just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase – and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?"

    That is it.
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  20. Wally says:
    @Moi
    Putin is weak--he voted in support of more sanctions on the DPRK. Sad that China also went along with this hypocrisy.

    “Weak”?

    How does acting in Russia’s best interests indicate weakness?

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  21. bjondo says:
    @jilles dykstra
    Hersh ended the Vietnam war by one photograph, My Lai, alas his description on how Obama had Bin Laden murdered had not a similar effect.

    I’ve read that My lai was first reported in France, Le Mond. My Lai was well known in Vietnam and was a medium level atrocity in America’s rolodex of atrocities.

    Not sure quite why Hersh is such a hero for re reporting an atrocity well known except of course to the baboons of USA.

    I don’t trust him either. Only part of the story gets reported.

    I think Israel Shamir sometimes is too polite and respectful.

    Read More
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  22. Wally says:
    @Michael Kenny
    Mr Shamir is an author in whose articles I always have difficulty finding a common thread. A few points: he speaks of “a deal that will allow Russia to live peacefully in its own niche of the world and of the market”. That would be very nice, but, of course, the problem is precisely Putin’s refusal to live in his own niche of the world. Clearly for such a “deal” to be possible, Putin must withdraw from Ukraine, to say nothing of Transnistria, South Ossetia etc. Secondly, I’d love to know where Mr Shamir gets the idea that there was ever any plan to turn Crimea into a NATO base or even to expel the Russian navy base already there. As for “working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America”, “the Taliban with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters and jets”, “new trade deals with North Korea and works to stabilize the Kim regime’s struggling economy” or “Russia that provides equipment and training to anti-American terrorist groups”, the more the merrier! The more Putin gets into open conflict with the US the better!

    I remind our Zionist friend that the eastern Ukraine people voted overwhelmingly to return to Russia. They will not go back.

    Yes. we realize that Jews First Zionists wants as much “open conflict” as possible, as long as US gentile blood is being spilled.

    The True Cost of Parasite Israel
    Forced US taxpayers money to Israel goes far beyond the official numbers.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-true-cost-of-israel/

    Israel’s Dirty Little Secret
    How it drives US policies exploiting a spineless Congress and White House

    http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/israels-dirty-little-secret/

    How to Bring Down the Elephant in the Room

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/how-to-bring-down-the-elephant-in-the-room/

    Israeli occupied territories
    ‘Join the US army, Fight for Israel

    Read More
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  23. bjondo says:
    @Michael Kenny
    Mr Shamir is an author in whose articles I always have difficulty finding a common thread. A few points: he speaks of “a deal that will allow Russia to live peacefully in its own niche of the world and of the market”. That would be very nice, but, of course, the problem is precisely Putin’s refusal to live in his own niche of the world. Clearly for such a “deal” to be possible, Putin must withdraw from Ukraine, to say nothing of Transnistria, South Ossetia etc. Secondly, I’d love to know where Mr Shamir gets the idea that there was ever any plan to turn Crimea into a NATO base or even to expel the Russian navy base already there. As for “working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America”, “the Taliban with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters and jets”, “new trade deals with North Korea and works to stabilize the Kim regime’s struggling economy” or “Russia that provides equipment and training to anti-American terrorist groups”, the more the merrier! The more Putin gets into open conflict with the US the better!

    Which DC neocon cubicle do you occupy.

    Of course, you could be satire.

    Read More
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  24. @The Alarmist
    A "bolt out of the blue" would likely catch all the Russian ICBMs in their silos or in garrison. The subs would likely be caught in port or easily hunted down if on patrol. Bombers would likely not get through. ASAT would take out any orbiting threat.

    The Russians know they have very little time to order retaliation even with a launch on warning posture, so they'd have to go first, and the reserve forces of the US nuclear arsenal would finish them off in any case.

    The idea of US “nuclear primacy” is a neocon fantasy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Yep, but that's all it takes for the Neocons to act.
    , @white noise
    "The idea of US “nuclear primacy” is a neocon fantasy."

    Absolute fantasy.
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  25. @Moi
    Putin is weak--he voted in support of more sanctions on the DPRK. Sad that China also went along with this hypocrisy.

    The DPRK is a friend of sorts, being one of the few countries that recognized Crimea, but ultimately it is China’s ward and Russia would be wise to follow China’s direction there.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Israel Shamir
    I agree with Anatol. Korea's connection to China is much, much stronger than Russia's. During Korean War, the Russians had lost a few dozen men, Chinese had lost tens of thousands, or even more. Son of Mao was killed defending Korea. All overland links of North Korea lead to China. There is a short stretch of Russian-Korean border, but until very recently there was no road neither bridge.
    Korean trade with China is many times bigger than their trade with Russia.
    However, Koreans are very strong nationalists; they are suspicious of China, and of China's motives. Thy think China does not want to have strong Korea next to itself, and that is why the Chinese can easily be persuaded by the Americans to join them demanding nuclear disarmament.
    Both Russia and China have big Korean communities. As a bottom line, it would look strange for Russians to reject measures agreed by the US with Beijing.
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  26. bjondo says:

    the sanctions signing is a temporary and eventually pyrrhic victory for the slugwhores of congress
    Trump had his signing qualifiers
    he can attack later

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  27. peterAUS says:
    @Beckow
    Cold war is not a war. And the last one wasn't one either. It is simply another word for hostility. The hostility gets worse, or sometimes better, each side tries to hurt the other in all the usual ways: attack allies, hurt economically, demonize in the media, try attacking key persons among the enemy, etc... This has always be done, France and England had spent hundreds of years in this form of a 'cold war', or - on a smaller scale - Denmark and Sweden, and many others. Only when it actually turned into a hot war with actual fighting each other, only then there would be a war. War is too serious a business to devalue linguistically. Let's not inflate what we have today into what it clearly is not.

    The key question is not the level of insanity among the neo-cons, or who would 'win' a nuclear war (who would want to?). I think the key still unanswered question is why are so many Washington courtiers escalating the hostility with Russia. I have seen different explanations: wanting Russia's resources, eager ammunition sellers, disappointed Clinton clan hangers-on, pipelines through Syrian deserts, atavistic ethnic hatreds, even belated bitterness over grandma's pogrom stories, but none of them - or even all of them together - really satisfy. On closer examination each one of those reasons is more nuanced and not compelling enough.

    So, why really? Is this a force on its own in the DC ruling establishment court? Is it something that in an almost Tolstoyan fashion is simply a flow of history, and irresistible mental force that joins black inner-city politicians with Du Pont circle think-tank buffet aficionados, ambitious media scribes with Georgetown professors on a sugar high from too many cupcakes? What the ... is going on in their minds? How do you get extreme identity leftists from Baltimore inner city and small city Texas 'lord-is-coming' types to sing like a well coordinated choir? This is embarrassing because of its stupidity and total disregard for consequences. As if we are dealing with children.

    Regarding Trump: historically a ruler so far out of sync with the court that surrounds him, but with strong popular support, either perished in an internal coup of some kind, or he asserted himself by a drastic clean-up of the courtiers. (Or in a few cases, he would just give up and go hunting, or to play golf). I think we are in for some turbulence.

    So, why really?

    A thoughtful post.

    Not even close to be qualified in those matters, the same topic has been badgering me since this “Russians this/that” erupted all over the place.

    Read article, recently, trying to explain it by angle “Protestant/Puritan vs Orthodox”.

    But, and now I am really going out of reservation, how about this:
    The essential need of a human to have OTHER….as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life…stuff like that.
    Say, related to “Star Wars” makeup….the need for a certain myth for a human psyche.
    I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain.
    As that movie “Forbidden planet”…superego/ego/ID.

    Anyway…..

    But, in any case, the topic should get more attention around.

    Would you have a theory?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
    "I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain."

    Pretty much.

    I'd call it an availability heuristic tangled up with a few other things.

    The Cold War set a precedent of America being at odds with Russia, following the old European example. They're reverting to something convenient. Focusing too hard on China would ultimately be "racism", as well.

    They must blame Russia, for otherwise, they'd have to admit that selling out white people for so many decades is what got Trump elected. That would mean admitting that whites have interests. And that is Crimestop #1.

    They also hate the existence of a massive white state not totally under their thumb, and where men are still mostly in charge. This isn't a small thing: "women's liberation" was one of the main casus bellorum for invading Afghanistan. So Russia, where smacking your bitch is now just a misdemeanor and the President goes hunting like old Teddy, is in need of enlightening.

    The difference between neurotics and the American establishment is that the former are confined to over-definition of their own sphere, while the latter have the power to define that of others. In the end, they will tear everything down to avoid confronting their own sunk cost fallacies, just like neurotic in denial.
    , @Beckow

    The essential need of a human to have OTHER….as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life…
     
    What you wrote is about as close to what my theory would be if I felt competent to have one. The truth is that we really don't know. On some level what the motivation is - why people do what they do - doesn't matter. We cannot see into human psyche (thank god for that), and in my view assigning motivations is inherently imprecise. I am just curious.

    A lot of establishment people in the West crave having an 'evil white enemy'. It is deeply embedded in the popular culture, it is today the only enemy that can exist given the PC and historical constraints in the West. There is no other viable alternative candidate for the role of the 'OTHER'. And Russia due to its whiteness, Christianity, but also remoteness and a slight obscurity - with the non-latin alphabet, Orthodoxy and difficult language - is an almost perfect 'ENEMY'. It has fulfilled this role for centuries, alternating with the Ottoman Turkey as the designated eternal foe.

    Given today's reality our civilization cannot survive if it divides itself. To put it bluntly another civil war among the European countries will simply mean the end of the broader European civilization. We cannot afford more WW1's or WW2's. So this hysteria that is clearly out of control in Washington elite circles is very harmful. And maybe that's why they do it.
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  28. @Anatoly Karlin
    The DPRK is a friend of sorts, being one of the few countries that recognized Crimea, but ultimately it is China's ward and Russia would be wise to follow China's direction there.

    I agree with Anatol. Korea’s connection to China is much, much stronger than Russia’s. During Korean War, the Russians had lost a few dozen men, Chinese had lost tens of thousands, or even more. Son of Mao was killed defending Korea. All overland links of North Korea lead to China. There is a short stretch of Russian-Korean border, but until very recently there was no road neither bridge.
    Korean trade with China is many times bigger than their trade with Russia.
    However, Koreans are very strong nationalists; they are suspicious of China, and of China’s motives. Thy think China does not want to have strong Korea next to itself, and that is why the Chinese can easily be persuaded by the Americans to join them demanding nuclear disarmament.
    Both Russia and China have big Korean communities. As a bottom line, it would look strange for Russians to reject measures agreed by the US with Beijing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pachyderm Pachyderma
    I think a united, independent and nuclear Korea is in best interest of the United States and furthermore, both sides, the Chinese and the Americans are playing a waiting game to see which way the Kim regime will blow to see if it becomes, either a destitute dependency of China or a staunch ally of America (never say it's impossible).
    , @Erebus
    I think NK is China's willing cat's-paw (I realize the contradiction) and somewhat less so Russia's. Their coordinated agreement to supporting the new sanctions is a tell-tale sign that something's afoot. Normally, one of them would have abstained, so I assume there's a trade in process. We'll know soon enough, but I'm guessing Afghanistan and Iran, maybe Ukraine, are in play. The first stage of that deal may already be apparent in Afghanistan. Replacing regular US troops with mercenaries means the US can withdraw its troops gracefully, and opens the door for Russia and China to enter without risk of a direct confrontation. The mercenaries can operate under the media's radar, and then leave even more quietly than they came.

    SK & JP are the Hegemon's garrisoned outposts in Eastasia. NK is China's low level disruption of their connection to the mothership. The more NK threatens, the wider the gap between the threat and the perception of what the US can actually accomplish appears. As the Pillsbury Dough Boy ratchets up to a threat-a-minute, and the US shouts back but remains stuck in its carriers and barracks, the gap will widen to the point where questions start to arise; not only in the mind of the public, but in every foreign office in every capital. You can bet your last dollar they're already rising in SK and JP.
    OBOR is the carrot to the NK's stick. Both JP and SK are slavering over the opportunities. Abe has met Putin 17 times. The Kuril islands are a cypher for the development of a new security structure in East Asia. SK and JP need a great power to balance China before they can plunge into OBOR's endless profitability, and OBOR needs their engineering and construction capabilities.
    By agreeing to the sanctions, China and Russia are icing SK & JP to get Afghanistan (and Iran / Ukraine?) sorted first. 摸着石头过河, Crossing the river by feeling for stones.
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  29. @peterAUS

    So, why really?
     
    A thoughtful post.

    Not even close to be qualified in those matters, the same topic has been badgering me since this "Russians this/that" erupted all over the place.

    Read article, recently, trying to explain it by angle "Protestant/Puritan vs Orthodox".

    But, and now I am really going out of reservation, how about this:
    The essential need of a human to have OTHER....as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life...stuff like that.
    Say, related to "Star Wars" makeup....the need for a certain myth for a human psyche.
    I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain.
    As that movie "Forbidden planet"...superego/ego/ID.

    Anyway.....

    But, in any case, the topic should get more attention around.

    Would you have a theory?

    “I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain.”

    Pretty much.

    I’d call it an availability heuristic tangled up with a few other things.

    The Cold War set a precedent of America being at odds with Russia, following the old European example. They’re reverting to something convenient. Focusing too hard on China would ultimately be “racism”, as well.

    They must blame Russia, for otherwise, they’d have to admit that selling out white people for so many decades is what got Trump elected. That would mean admitting that whites have interests. And that is Crimestop #1.

    They also hate the existence of a massive white state not totally under their thumb, and where men are still mostly in charge. This isn’t a small thing: “women’s liberation” was one of the main casus bellorum for invading Afghanistan. So Russia, where smacking your bitch is now just a misdemeanor and the President goes hunting like old Teddy, is in need of enlightening.

    The difference between neurotics and the American establishment is that the former are confined to over-definition of their own sphere, while the latter have the power to define that of others. In the end, they will tear everything down to avoid confronting their own sunk cost fallacies, just like neurotic in denial.

    Read More
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  30. utu says:
    @Beckow
    It takes a lot to destroy a country, even to turn it into a satrapy. We are in very early stages of this process after literally decades of trying. Any 'outcomes' are way, way in the future, if any would happen at all. The interplay among major geo-political countries moves at snail pace and the changes are very gradual.

    From Russia's point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations - and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn't play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no 'outcomes', just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase - and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?

    “self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. ”

    Why self-defeating? It kind of worked. That Russia annexed Crimea is not really a big g deal. They do not care about Crimea. There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base or Jewish colony as some say. That they act upset is just posturing. Their argument is legalistic. Technically Russia broke international law. But they succeeded up to some point of prying large chunk of land from Russia’s direct sphere of influence and managed to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia. For people who do not consider peace and harmony to be the highest value the Maidan operation was a success.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    { There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base....}

    How would you know?
    There is no possible way for you to know that.

    No, I don't know either, but given what has transpired since the breakup USSR and how West/NATO lied to idiot Gorbachev about not pushing NATO Eastward, it is far more plausible that NATO did in fact plan to oust Russia from Crimea, and the naval base there.
    Oh, what a prize for NATO that would have been.

    One after another country has been bribed into NATO.
    NATO is right on the border of RF today in Europe.
    And NATO tried and is still trying to recruit Republic of Georgia, right on Russia's border in the Caucasus.
    So NATO/US campaign to surround and strangle Russia has not stopped.

    {....to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia.}

    Part of Ukrainians - the Western ones - were always hostile to Russia and Russians, despite being Slavs. They even collaborated with Hitler to murder their fellow Slavs, until Hitler turned on them too and started murdering the idiots.

    As to Eastern Ukrainians: you are right; Maidan operation was a success, but in a different way. With Ukraine intact, it would always be thorn on the side of Russia.
    With it broken up, Novorossiya with its ethnic Russian population will eventually break free and join Russia - and everybody will live happily ever after.

    , @Beckow
    They do care about Crimea - that was the price. Do you think Ukraine in Nato would continue having the home base for the Russian Navy? How would that work? The base would be gone over time and that was definitely part of the plan. There is no way Ukraine would be allowed into EU without first joining Nato - the logic here was ironclad and both sides knew it.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Russia used to heavily subsidize Ukraine, now Europe and US are expected to do it. The Ukrainian hostility toward Russia (and others) has always been there. It is more now, but these hatreds come and go as circumstances change. I agree that some might simply enjoy the chaos in Ukraine on the Russian border, but that is a very tricky goal that can easily backfire. My view is that everybody lost on Maidan: Russia, Europe, US and most of all the normal Ukrainians. Obama was either disengaged or extremely incompetent, this has not benefitted US in any tangible long-term way. And it permanently removed Crimea from Ukraine. That was a powerful lever against Russia and once used and lost it is no longer available. So, yes it was a stupid self-defeating policy. You can tell from Washington squealing about Crimea that they know it. They are angry at Russia for acting in Crimea, at their Kiev 'allies' for screwing it up, and at themselves for being so slow and clumsy. But it is too late.
    , @white noise
    To begin with, Russia can at least claim that Ukraine was part of Russia for a long, long time. And it's the same people, Slavs. Centuries of history lived together. So, one could argue that Ukraine is Russia's business, to some extent. But it's definitely none of America's business.

    It doesn't look like a success, anyway. The CIA... ehr, I mean, the government in Kiev, has lost Crimea and the Donbass to Russia. And I can't see how could they recover them without making the interventionism (which is making the USA a hated country all over the world) significantly more obvious... and risking a retaliation by Russia, which has nuclear power to really worry about, in spite of comic books fantasies a la Captain America.

    Perhaps the American government should worry more about its own people than in scheming how to control other nations.

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  31. I would have to rate this column as superior, very good.

    The part that starts out:

    There are considerable differences between refusing to cooperate with the United States, and working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America.

    . . . .

    is something I might have written in my comments even as recently as last year, but I find myself censoring my own comments these days. I’m not as sanguine about a new Cold War as the author is. The United States is bordering on becoming a Stasi State.

    Wiki on Stasi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi

    The Security forces of the US have been going after pattern-of-life information on US citizens.

    Marina has the ability to look back on the last 365 days’ worth of DNI metadata seen by the Sigint collection system, regardless whether or not it was tasked for collection.” The stored metadata is mainly used for pattern-of-life analysis. US persons are not exempt because metadata is not considered data by US law (section 702 of the FISA Amendments Act).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern-of-life_analysis

    Which sets us up for Zersetzung.

    The practice of repression in Zersetzung comprised extensive and secret methods of control and psychological manipulation, including personal relationships of the target, for which the Stasi relied on its network of informal collaborators,[2] (in German inoffizielle Mitarbeiter or IM), the State’s power over institutions, and on operational psychology. Using targeted psychological attacks the Stasi tried to deprive a dissident of any chance of a “hostile action”.

    Wiki on Zersetzung: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Do your part for the resistance... lose the smart-phone, and pay for everything with cash.
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  32. bjondo says:

    Not cold war 2 following cold war 1.

    This new war with Russia is by and for the jews with their lickspittle puppets for israel.

    It is about Russia stopping the defeat of Syria.

    it is about Putin not bowing to judaized America and the judaized west.

    it is about Trump not bowing to the corrupt, deep state – the judaized state.

    Read More
    • Replies: @bjondo
    This new Jew war against Russia would be war number ?? against Russia in last 200 years.

    Also Jew did hellava lot id killing of non jew in USSR.
    , @white noise
    "Not cold war 2 following cold war 1.

    This new war with Russia is by and for the jews with their lickspittle puppets for israel.

    It is about Russia stopping the defeat of Syria.

    it is about Putin not bowing to judaized America and the judaized west.

    it is about Trump not bowing to the corrupt, deep state – the judaized state."

    Exactly. Putin is being demonized by the corporate media for a reason. He is going against the designs of the Jewish cabal. Also Trump is, and that's why the corporate media is demonizing him too, and also why they will try to impeach him.

    The fact that Putin and Trump had a very cordial meeting of two hours and a half at the G20 is also no coincidence. And it could have been a longer conversation, but they both were urged to go and meet other dignitaries that they had WAITING in line, because they considered their meeting more important.

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  33. Avery says:
    @utu
    "self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. "

    Why self-defeating? It kind of worked. That Russia annexed Crimea is not really a big g deal. They do not care about Crimea. There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base or Jewish colony as some say. That they act upset is just posturing. Their argument is legalistic. Technically Russia broke international law. But they succeeded up to some point of prying large chunk of land from Russia's direct sphere of influence and managed to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia. For people who do not consider peace and harmony to be the highest value the Maidan operation was a success.

    { There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base….}

    How would you know?
    There is no possible way for you to know that.

    No, I don’t know either, but given what has transpired since the breakup USSR and how West/NATO lied to idiot Gorbachev about not pushing NATO Eastward, it is far more plausible that NATO did in fact plan to oust Russia from Crimea, and the naval base there.
    Oh, what a prize for NATO that would have been.

    One after another country has been bribed into NATO.
    NATO is right on the border of RF today in Europe.
    And NATO tried and is still trying to recruit Republic of Georgia, right on Russia’s border in the Caucasus.
    So NATO/US campaign to surround and strangle Russia has not stopped.

    {….to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia.}

    Part of Ukrainians – the Western ones – were always hostile to Russia and Russians, despite being Slavs. They even collaborated with Hitler to murder their fellow Slavs, until Hitler turned on them too and started murdering the idiots.

    As to Eastern Ukrainians: you are right; Maidan operation was a success, but in a different way. With Ukraine intact, it would always be thorn on the side of Russia.
    With it broken up, Novorossiya with its ethnic Russian population will eventually break free and join Russia – and everybody will live happily ever after.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lucy
    They are hostile to Poles as well, despite Poland's "conservative" government's acting as if Ukraine was Poland's ally against Russia.
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  34. bjondo says:
    @bjondo
    Not cold war 2 following cold war 1.

    This new war with Russia is by and for the jews with their lickspittle puppets for israel.

    It is about Russia stopping the defeat of Syria.

    it is about Putin not bowing to judaized America and the judaized west.

    it is about Trump not bowing to the corrupt, deep state - the judaized state.

    This new Jew war against Russia would be war number ?? against Russia in last 200 years.

    Also Jew did hellava lot id killing of non jew in USSR.

    Read More
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  35. Beckow says:
    @peterAUS

    So, why really?
     
    A thoughtful post.

    Not even close to be qualified in those matters, the same topic has been badgering me since this "Russians this/that" erupted all over the place.

    Read article, recently, trying to explain it by angle "Protestant/Puritan vs Orthodox".

    But, and now I am really going out of reservation, how about this:
    The essential need of a human to have OTHER....as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life...stuff like that.
    Say, related to "Star Wars" makeup....the need for a certain myth for a human psyche.
    I think we are not in rational space any more, but deep hindbrain.
    As that movie "Forbidden planet"...superego/ego/ID.

    Anyway.....

    But, in any case, the topic should get more attention around.

    Would you have a theory?

    The essential need of a human to have OTHER….as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life…

    What you wrote is about as close to what my theory would be if I felt competent to have one. The truth is that we really don’t know. On some level what the motivation is – why people do what they do – doesn’t matter. We cannot see into human psyche (thank god for that), and in my view assigning motivations is inherently imprecise. I am just curious.

    A lot of establishment people in the West crave having an ‘evil white enemy’. It is deeply embedded in the popular culture, it is today the only enemy that can exist given the PC and historical constraints in the West. There is no other viable alternative candidate for the role of the ‘OTHER’. And Russia due to its whiteness, Christianity, but also remoteness and a slight obscurity – with the non-latin alphabet, Orthodoxy and difficult language – is an almost perfect ‘ENEMY’. It has fulfilled this role for centuries, alternating with the Ottoman Turkey as the designated eternal foe.

    Given today’s reality our civilization cannot survive if it divides itself. To put it bluntly another civil war among the European countries will simply mean the end of the broader European civilization. We cannot afford more WW1′s or WW2′s. So this hysteria that is clearly out of control in Washington elite circles is very harmful. And maybe that’s why they do it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
    I said it better.

    For once.
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  36. @Israel Shamir
    I agree with Anatol. Korea's connection to China is much, much stronger than Russia's. During Korean War, the Russians had lost a few dozen men, Chinese had lost tens of thousands, or even more. Son of Mao was killed defending Korea. All overland links of North Korea lead to China. There is a short stretch of Russian-Korean border, but until very recently there was no road neither bridge.
    Korean trade with China is many times bigger than their trade with Russia.
    However, Koreans are very strong nationalists; they are suspicious of China, and of China's motives. Thy think China does not want to have strong Korea next to itself, and that is why the Chinese can easily be persuaded by the Americans to join them demanding nuclear disarmament.
    Both Russia and China have big Korean communities. As a bottom line, it would look strange for Russians to reject measures agreed by the US with Beijing.

    I think a united, independent and nuclear Korea is in best interest of the United States and furthermore, both sides, the Chinese and the Americans are playing a waiting game to see which way the Kim regime will blow to see if it becomes, either a destitute dependency of China or a staunch ally of America (never say it’s impossible).

    Read More
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  37. @Beckow

    The essential need of a human to have OTHER….as opponent, enemy, focus of bad things in life…
     
    What you wrote is about as close to what my theory would be if I felt competent to have one. The truth is that we really don't know. On some level what the motivation is - why people do what they do - doesn't matter. We cannot see into human psyche (thank god for that), and in my view assigning motivations is inherently imprecise. I am just curious.

    A lot of establishment people in the West crave having an 'evil white enemy'. It is deeply embedded in the popular culture, it is today the only enemy that can exist given the PC and historical constraints in the West. There is no other viable alternative candidate for the role of the 'OTHER'. And Russia due to its whiteness, Christianity, but also remoteness and a slight obscurity - with the non-latin alphabet, Orthodoxy and difficult language - is an almost perfect 'ENEMY'. It has fulfilled this role for centuries, alternating with the Ottoman Turkey as the designated eternal foe.

    Given today's reality our civilization cannot survive if it divides itself. To put it bluntly another civil war among the European countries will simply mean the end of the broader European civilization. We cannot afford more WW1's or WW2's. So this hysteria that is clearly out of control in Washington elite circles is very harmful. And maybe that's why they do it.

    I said it better.

    For once.

    Read More
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  38. Beckow says:
    @utu
    "self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. "

    Why self-defeating? It kind of worked. That Russia annexed Crimea is not really a big g deal. They do not care about Crimea. There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base or Jewish colony as some say. That they act upset is just posturing. Their argument is legalistic. Technically Russia broke international law. But they succeeded up to some point of prying large chunk of land from Russia's direct sphere of influence and managed to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia. For people who do not consider peace and harmony to be the highest value the Maidan operation was a success.

    They do care about Crimea – that was the price. Do you think Ukraine in Nato would continue having the home base for the Russian Navy? How would that work? The base would be gone over time and that was definitely part of the plan. There is no way Ukraine would be allowed into EU without first joining Nato – the logic here was ironclad and both sides knew it.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Russia used to heavily subsidize Ukraine, now Europe and US are expected to do it. The Ukrainian hostility toward Russia (and others) has always been there. It is more now, but these hatreds come and go as circumstances change. I agree that some might simply enjoy the chaos in Ukraine on the Russian border, but that is a very tricky goal that can easily backfire. My view is that everybody lost on Maidan: Russia, Europe, US and most of all the normal Ukrainians. Obama was either disengaged or extremely incompetent, this has not benefitted US in any tangible long-term way. And it permanently removed Crimea from Ukraine. That was a powerful lever against Russia and once used and lost it is no longer available. So, yes it was a stupid self-defeating policy. You can tell from Washington squealing about Crimea that they know it. They are angry at Russia for acting in Crimea, at their Kiev ‘allies’ for screwing it up, and at themselves for being so slow and clumsy. But it is too late.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama's mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia's propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.
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  39. utu says:
    @Beckow
    They do care about Crimea - that was the price. Do you think Ukraine in Nato would continue having the home base for the Russian Navy? How would that work? The base would be gone over time and that was definitely part of the plan. There is no way Ukraine would be allowed into EU without first joining Nato - the logic here was ironclad and both sides knew it.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Russia used to heavily subsidize Ukraine, now Europe and US are expected to do it. The Ukrainian hostility toward Russia (and others) has always been there. It is more now, but these hatreds come and go as circumstances change. I agree that some might simply enjoy the chaos in Ukraine on the Russian border, but that is a very tricky goal that can easily backfire. My view is that everybody lost on Maidan: Russia, Europe, US and most of all the normal Ukrainians. Obama was either disengaged or extremely incompetent, this has not benefitted US in any tangible long-term way. And it permanently removed Crimea from Ukraine. That was a powerful lever against Russia and once used and lost it is no longer available. So, yes it was a stupid self-defeating policy. You can tell from Washington squealing about Crimea that they know it. They are angry at Russia for acting in Crimea, at their Kiev 'allies' for screwing it up, and at themselves for being so slow and clumsy. But it is too late.

    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama’s mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia’s propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.

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    • Replies: @white noise
    Might makes right? So, you're saying that brute force alone is ok. That's barbaric, uncivilized. Very neo con, actually, and very in tune with the pro-Jewish rethoric of war, war and more war. You're not another minion of the Jews, are you?

    ... But the might has not worked well, anyway... America could not win a war in Vietnam, or Korea, or Afghanistan, or Irak, or Syria... Nowhere.

    The American government should perhaps worry more about its own people and its own affairs inside USA territory than in scheming how to control and invade and hurt other countries.

    Human kind certainly needs for all these neo con crazies in the government to finally give up on their lunacy.
    , @Beckow
    Motivations are hard to establish. But when we focus on the sequence of observable events, it looks like a major part of the plan was to 1) push the Russian Navy out of Crimea and 2) over time turn Sebastopol into a quasi-Nato naval base ('temporary visits'?). These things take time and you can imagine that 15-20 years time-frame and a Ukrainian fig leave in the meantime would be used. Same as e.g. with the Baltics.

    they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough.
     
    Crimea is geo-politically and strategically by far the most important part of Ukraine. Hitler had dreams about it and started German settlements there in the middle of WW2. It is that good. It has been a central piece of geography there for 3-4,000 years, from ancient Greeks, Goths, Ottomans, Russia. It is not credible to think that Washington planners gazing at maps of the region would not salivate at getting it, or at least at denying it to Russia. Without Crimea southern Russia is more or less surrounded.

    It didn't work because Russia moved very fast. The clumsiness of the Kiev overthrow, the incompetence of the Maidanistas and their sponsors, and the general chaos and inertia were the reasons. Why in the holy f..k didn't Kiev secure key points of Crimea ahead of time? They had the forces, at a minimum they could had caused a stalemate, a division as in Donbass. Instead they focused on prancing around Yanukovitch's saunas and on who would be at meetings how frequently each week - listen to Nuland's tape, it is embarrassing in its shallowness and amateurism.

    Ukraine as an appendage to Nato, as an irritant to Russia, as an unofficial forward base - all of that is very expensive to sustain permanently. Kiev players know that they are indispensable so they will raise the costs. Unless an enormous investment is made into Ukraine ($100 billion plus sustained aid, and not in 'loans'), the place will be an economic basket case. They are cut-off from both the Russia's market and also the EU market. People are leaving as quickly as they can. Democracy doesn't flourish in a situation like that, we are more likely to see a series of odd-ball strongmen. And those, as US has learned around the world, are hard to control. So what is the gain? It probably felt good in 2014-15, but longterm unless it gets successfully escalated it is a cul-de-sac. An escalation is extremely risky, Russia has nukes and they have shown in Crimea that they will make sudden assertive moves.

    Maidan was a media success, as was the 'Orange Revolution' 10 years earlier. But it was a strategic screw-up. It handed Crimea to Russia on a silver plate, that was simply not going to happen under any other circumstances. (Could Nuland be a mole?)
    , @peterAUS
    Apart from

    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea.
     
    agree.

    Especially agree with

    Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin
     
    Seen this debate tons of times so far.

    You have, say, "western" approach.
    Beckow "eastern".
    Disregard the idiots, kids and high school fanbase members around.

    The question is really only "did West get overstretched by Ukraine"?
    If no, Russia lost.
    If yes, Russia is, slowly, winning.
    , @Mulegino1
    Russia may never have been very good at propaganda during the age of mainstream media hegemony, but now- in the age of virtually absolute informational fluidity- there is no need for state sponsored propaganda. The current dichotomy is set in stone. The stupid mouth breathers will continue to accept the mainstream MINITRUE propaganda as gospel, while the more articulate and intelligent will accept the in depth and scholarly analysis provided them by the alternative media. All the latter have to do is to state the facts. The former have no choice but to spout their foolishly consistent kosher narratives. The latter will lose among those with even a modicum of cerebral ability, and they will continue to succeed among the lobotomized infotainment consumers.
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  40. @Anatoly Karlin
    The idea of US "nuclear primacy" is a neocon fantasy.

    Yep, but that’s all it takes for the Neocons to act.

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  41. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @The Alarmist
    A "bolt out of the blue" would likely catch all the Russian ICBMs in their silos or in garrison. The subs would likely be caught in port or easily hunted down if on patrol. Bombers would likely not get through. ASAT would take out any orbiting threat.

    The Russians know they have very little time to order retaliation even with a launch on warning posture, so they'd have to go first, and the reserve forces of the US nuclear arsenal would finish them off in any case.

    The christian west (you keep electing the same evil mofers, so…) is out of its evil fcuking mind, that such a situation can even be considered!

    With great Power, comes great Evil.

    The white race, which will never peacefully relinquish its hegemony, will forever be proof of that.

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  42. @Logan
    In the early 60s, at the time of the Cuban crisis, the total megatonnage of all Bombs was somewhere upwards of 10,000. Since that time all(?) of the really big Bombs have been gotten rid of, as smaller Bombs will do the job fine with better accuracy, and in addition the total number of Bombs has gone way, way down.

    As a result, the total megatons of all Bombs today is somewhere in the vicinity of 500.

    That's still a lot of big booms, but 500 is a LOT less than 10,000.

    The risk of extermination of humanity has presumably been proportionately reduced.

    BTW, it is surprisingly difficult to find info on total megatons, which would seem to be an important metric to track.

    Putin was probably thinking of the radiation, which can last many years, and can be transported far by the wind and rain and rivers, and even sewage. In any case, I hope we won’t have to test just how bad a nuclear war can be.

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    • Replies: @Logan
    No doubt. But presumably the radiation released by 500 megatons, ina lot fewer Bombs, would be much less than that released by 10,000 megatons.
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  43. @Michael Kenny
    Mr Shamir is an author in whose articles I always have difficulty finding a common thread. A few points: he speaks of “a deal that will allow Russia to live peacefully in its own niche of the world and of the market”. That would be very nice, but, of course, the problem is precisely Putin’s refusal to live in his own niche of the world. Clearly for such a “deal” to be possible, Putin must withdraw from Ukraine, to say nothing of Transnistria, South Ossetia etc. Secondly, I’d love to know where Mr Shamir gets the idea that there was ever any plan to turn Crimea into a NATO base or even to expel the Russian navy base already there. As for “working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America”, “the Taliban with surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters and jets”, “new trade deals with North Korea and works to stabilize the Kim regime’s struggling economy” or “Russia that provides equipment and training to anti-American terrorist groups”, the more the merrier! The more Putin gets into open conflict with the US the better!

    There is a famous recorded phone conversation where American politicians discuss effecting a coup d’etat in Ukraine. This developed into the Maidan, and the ousting of President Yanukovich, who was loyal to Putin. John McCain was quick to visit the new government. McCain has been involved in many similar interventionist episodes in several countries, so that was suspicious.

    It is conjecture to think if there was a plan to install a NATO base, but so, in all appearance, the coup was engineered by the American government. At first, Putin claimed that Russia intervened “to protect the Russian-speaking people” in Crimea. But later, he said that it was in fact a strategic move, to protect the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Most likely, he decided to invade Crimea when he saw that Yanukovich fell and had to flee for his life… His next move, which was to invade East Ukraine (through proxies in this case) shows that he got nervous with the change of government in Kiev, which announced a plan to join NATO and EU.

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  44. Lucy says:
    @Avery
    { There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base....}

    How would you know?
    There is no possible way for you to know that.

    No, I don't know either, but given what has transpired since the breakup USSR and how West/NATO lied to idiot Gorbachev about not pushing NATO Eastward, it is far more plausible that NATO did in fact plan to oust Russia from Crimea, and the naval base there.
    Oh, what a prize for NATO that would have been.

    One after another country has been bribed into NATO.
    NATO is right on the border of RF today in Europe.
    And NATO tried and is still trying to recruit Republic of Georgia, right on Russia's border in the Caucasus.
    So NATO/US campaign to surround and strangle Russia has not stopped.

    {....to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia.}

    Part of Ukrainians - the Western ones - were always hostile to Russia and Russians, despite being Slavs. They even collaborated with Hitler to murder their fellow Slavs, until Hitler turned on them too and started murdering the idiots.

    As to Eastern Ukrainians: you are right; Maidan operation was a success, but in a different way. With Ukraine intact, it would always be thorn on the side of Russia.
    With it broken up, Novorossiya with its ethnic Russian population will eventually break free and join Russia - and everybody will live happily ever after.

    They are hostile to Poles as well, despite Poland’s “conservative” government’s acting as if Ukraine was Poland’s ally against Russia.

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  45. @Beckow
    It takes a lot to destroy a country, even to turn it into a satrapy. We are in very early stages of this process after literally decades of trying. Any 'outcomes' are way, way in the future, if any would happen at all. The interplay among major geo-political countries moves at snail pace and the changes are very gradual.

    From Russia's point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations - and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn't play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no 'outcomes', just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase - and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?

    “From Russia’s point of view, China is more or less contained, all they need is not to have active hostility on that border and good trade relations – and they have both. US hostility toward Russia doesn’t play well in Europe, people there know a lot more about it, there is a long nuanced history, and they are after all neighbors with an obvious interest in trade. What looks like a good strategy in Washington will never play out the same way in Europe. And having hostile relations with US might be unpleasant for Russia, but once that has become inevitable, as all people, they will simply adjust. US is not at all important for most things that happen in Russia.

    Putin is rational enough to know that there are no end-points, no ‘outcomes’, just an ongoing process. He also knows that by taking Crimea he took the most valuable thing that was in play in this phase – and he could not had done it without the very clumsy, self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. So I would not describe that as lethargy, when one is basically winning, why stir it up?”

    That is it.

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  46. @Anatoly Karlin
    The idea of US "nuclear primacy" is a neocon fantasy.

    “The idea of US “nuclear primacy” is a neocon fantasy.”

    Absolute fantasy.

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    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Then again, Russia rubber-stanped the UN sanctions on North Korea ... in a more MAD day and age, they might have vetoed. Vlad knows the hand he has been dealt.
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  47. Here is an interesting comment that was sent by a US military man from circles close to President Trump.

    We are told that congressional approval–sampled by the same polls that rate the president at 40%–is at 4%; and since all of these polls are engineered we can easily accept that President Trump is in reality at 60%, whilst the congressional scum actually garners 6% approval from respondents, who are largely over-sampled in favour of democraps and independents (republicans are almost invariably a mere third of any selected group). The polls are very sophisticated garbage of the kind that predicted Trump’s loss to Hitlery: nothing is real any longer in this vile, technologically-driven society of knaves and cretins.

    I rather enjoy Mr Shamir’s reasoning, my friend. But he is wrong about Trump. The president is in a death struggle with the greatest alliance of traitors and kleptocrats the world has ever known. He will win, because two-hundred-million Americans stand with him in this fight against globalist totalitarianism. Democrap leaders and their “social justice warrior” creatures are either seditious or guilty of outright treason. All are supported by massive globalist wealth, the Koch brothers and George Soros, Gates, Buffet and Zuckerberg, along with a great host of other top-level players, including Carlos Slim the Inaptly Named, who is the world’s most powerful drug dealer. And yet President Trump stands tall against the crushing tide.

    Why? Because the American presidency, while not nearly as autonomous as its French counterpart, functions as does our sun among the more distant stars. Trump can be attacked ceaselessly, even “indicted” as you suggest he may be–FOR NOTHING!–but his position at the heart of the U.S. governmental system is unassailable. And even if he is impeached by a future democrap majority, good to remember that Clinton went nowhere, disrupted the nation for two more horrible years after his impeachment, and then went on to loot the planet free of any stigma. Trump is a force for good, is beloved by tens of millions and is the most effective communicator in political history, tapping into the psyche of average Americans in a way that even Ronald Reagan could not match.

    The left is satanic. It will continue to peddle its vomitory prescriptives, engineered polls, engineered riots, engineered outrage among its bicoastal supporters–and Trump will continue to work eighteen hours daily for the American people, undermining the illegitimate Federal Reserve system that is largely responsible for the West’s boom and bust economic cycle, remaking the nation’s infrastructure, at last reforming the moronically complex tax code, unravelling so-called Obamacare, which sought to control 40% of America’s economy for the benefit of global insurance companies. Illegal immigration is already down 70%. The Department of Veterans Affairs has been overhauled at light speed (veterans were literally dying whilst waiting for care that they earned). American manufacturing renewal is being championed in every way by this president, while the Paris Climate Accord is dead to U.S. and America has been withdrawn from TPP, a disgraceful globalist compact designed to annihilate what remains of this country’s manufacturing base.

    My distant cousin will have to go. McMaster is working against President Trump. He is a neo-con globalist operative who wants war with Russia. McMaster’s team has worked to isolate the president from developing events; these people have filtered information that should be fully analysed by Donald J. Trump; they have purged advisers who favour détente with Russia, together with a realistic approach to Ukraine and Syria. McMaster cannot be trusted. And Trump does not like him personally, happily enough. But these delicate moves take time and we have no time. The satanic left, aided by the deep state and its creatures, is working to eliminate the president. If they are successful, America will soon be finished.

    What goes up must come down. The wildly inflated stock market is most likely going to crash and with it the global economy. President Trump will be on the side of those who are left out of the current temporary boom, the tens of millions who will be wrecked by this coming disaster, “the forgotten men and women” to whom he refers in every speech. Corrosive structures that Western elites built to enslave U.S. are coming apart at the seams. The inevitable economic realignment will benefit President Trump. If we can keep him alive. And if our president falls, the deep state goes down with him.

    Semper Fidelis

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  48. @utu
    "self-defeating Obama intervention in Ukraine to change the elected government there. "

    Why self-defeating? It kind of worked. That Russia annexed Crimea is not really a big g deal. They do not care about Crimea. There was no real designs about turning Crimea into NATO base or Jewish colony as some say. That they act upset is just posturing. Their argument is legalistic. Technically Russia broke international law. But they succeeded up to some point of prying large chunk of land from Russia's direct sphere of influence and managed to turn Ukrainians to be hostile towards Russia. For people who do not consider peace and harmony to be the highest value the Maidan operation was a success.

    To begin with, Russia can at least claim that Ukraine was part of Russia for a long, long time. And it’s the same people, Slavs. Centuries of history lived together. So, one could argue that Ukraine is Russia’s business, to some extent. But it’s definitely none of America’s business.

    It doesn’t look like a success, anyway. The CIA… ehr, I mean, the government in Kiev, has lost Crimea and the Donbass to Russia. And I can’t see how could they recover them without making the interventionism (which is making the USA a hated country all over the world) significantly more obvious… and risking a retaliation by Russia, which has nuclear power to really worry about, in spite of comic books fantasies a la Captain America.

    Perhaps the American government should worry more about its own people than in scheming how to control other nations.

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  49. @bjondo
    Not cold war 2 following cold war 1.

    This new war with Russia is by and for the jews with their lickspittle puppets for israel.

    It is about Russia stopping the defeat of Syria.

    it is about Putin not bowing to judaized America and the judaized west.

    it is about Trump not bowing to the corrupt, deep state - the judaized state.

    “Not cold war 2 following cold war 1.

    This new war with Russia is by and for the jews with their lickspittle puppets for israel.

    It is about Russia stopping the defeat of Syria.

    it is about Putin not bowing to judaized America and the judaized west.

    it is about Trump not bowing to the corrupt, deep state – the judaized state.”

    Exactly. Putin is being demonized by the corporate media for a reason. He is going against the designs of the Jewish cabal. Also Trump is, and that’s why the corporate media is demonizing him too, and also why they will try to impeach him.

    The fact that Putin and Trump had a very cordial meeting of two hours and a half at the G20 is also no coincidence. And it could have been a longer conversation, but they both were urged to go and meet other dignitaries that they had WAITING in line, because they considered their meeting more important.

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  50. @utu
    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama's mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia's propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.

    Might makes right? So, you’re saying that brute force alone is ok. That’s barbaric, uncivilized. Very neo con, actually, and very in tune with the pro-Jewish rethoric of war, war and more war. You’re not another minion of the Jews, are you?

    … But the might has not worked well, anyway… America could not win a war in Vietnam, or Korea, or Afghanistan, or Irak, or Syria… Nowhere.

    The American government should perhaps worry more about its own people and its own affairs inside USA territory than in scheming how to control and invade and hurt other countries.

    Human kind certainly needs for all these neo con crazies in the government to finally give up on their lunacy.

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    • Replies: @utu
    So, you’re saying that brute force alone is ok.

    What is wrong with you people? What happened to reading comprehension? When one makes an affirmative statement that A is B this does not imply that one approves or condones that A is B or that one does not think that A should not be B.
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  51. @Si1ver1ock
    I would have to rate this column as superior, very good.

    The part that starts out:

    There are considerable differences between refusing to cooperate with the United States, and working assertively to resist U.S. policies and damage America.

    . . . .


     

    is something I might have written in my comments even as recently as last year, but I find myself censoring my own comments these days. I'm not as sanguine about a new Cold War as the author is. The United States is bordering on becoming a Stasi State.

    Wiki on Stasi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi

    The Security forces of the US have been going after pattern-of-life information on US citizens.

    Marina has the ability to look back on the last 365 days' worth of DNI metadata seen by the Sigint collection system, regardless whether or not it was tasked for collection." The stored metadata is mainly used for pattern-of-life analysis. US persons are not exempt because metadata is not considered data by US law (section 702 of the FISA Amendments Act).


     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern-of-life_analysis

    Which sets us up for Zersetzung.

    The practice of repression in Zersetzung comprised extensive and secret methods of control and psychological manipulation, including personal relationships of the target, for which the Stasi relied on its network of informal collaborators,[2] (in German inoffizielle Mitarbeiter or IM), the State's power over institutions, and on operational psychology. Using targeted psychological attacks the Stasi tried to deprive a dissident of any chance of a "hostile action".


     

    Wiki on Zersetzung: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung

    Do your part for the resistance… lose the smart-phone, and pay for everything with cash.

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  52. @white noise
    "The idea of US “nuclear primacy” is a neocon fantasy."

    Absolute fantasy.

    Then again, Russia rubber-stanped the UN sanctions on North Korea … in a more MAD day and age, they might have vetoed. Vlad knows the hand he has been dealt.

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  53. utu says:
    @white noise
    Might makes right? So, you're saying that brute force alone is ok. That's barbaric, uncivilized. Very neo con, actually, and very in tune with the pro-Jewish rethoric of war, war and more war. You're not another minion of the Jews, are you?

    ... But the might has not worked well, anyway... America could not win a war in Vietnam, or Korea, or Afghanistan, or Irak, or Syria... Nowhere.

    The American government should perhaps worry more about its own people and its own affairs inside USA territory than in scheming how to control and invade and hurt other countries.

    Human kind certainly needs for all these neo con crazies in the government to finally give up on their lunacy.

    So, you’re saying that brute force alone is ok.

    What is wrong with you people? What happened to reading comprehension? When one makes an affirmative statement that A is B this does not imply that one approves or condones that A is B or that one does not think that A should not be B.

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  54. Beckow says:
    @utu
    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama's mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia's propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.

    Motivations are hard to establish. But when we focus on the sequence of observable events, it looks like a major part of the plan was to 1) push the Russian Navy out of Crimea and 2) over time turn Sebastopol into a quasi-Nato naval base (‘temporary visits’?). These things take time and you can imagine that 15-20 years time-frame and a Ukrainian fig leave in the meantime would be used. Same as e.g. with the Baltics.

    they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough.

    Crimea is geo-politically and strategically by far the most important part of Ukraine. Hitler had dreams about it and started German settlements there in the middle of WW2. It is that good. It has been a central piece of geography there for 3-4,000 years, from ancient Greeks, Goths, Ottomans, Russia. It is not credible to think that Washington planners gazing at maps of the region would not salivate at getting it, or at least at denying it to Russia. Without Crimea southern Russia is more or less surrounded.

    It didn’t work because Russia moved very fast. The clumsiness of the Kiev overthrow, the incompetence of the Maidanistas and their sponsors, and the general chaos and inertia were the reasons. Why in the holy f..k didn’t Kiev secure key points of Crimea ahead of time? They had the forces, at a minimum they could had caused a stalemate, a division as in Donbass. Instead they focused on prancing around Yanukovitch’s saunas and on who would be at meetings how frequently each week – listen to Nuland’s tape, it is embarrassing in its shallowness and amateurism.

    Ukraine as an appendage to Nato, as an irritant to Russia, as an unofficial forward base – all of that is very expensive to sustain permanently. Kiev players know that they are indispensable so they will raise the costs. Unless an enormous investment is made into Ukraine ($100 billion plus sustained aid, and not in ‘loans’), the place will be an economic basket case. They are cut-off from both the Russia’s market and also the EU market. People are leaving as quickly as they can. Democracy doesn’t flourish in a situation like that, we are more likely to see a series of odd-ball strongmen. And those, as US has learned around the world, are hard to control. So what is the gain? It probably felt good in 2014-15, but longterm unless it gets successfully escalated it is a cul-de-sac. An escalation is extremely risky, Russia has nukes and they have shown in Crimea that they will make sudden assertive moves.

    Maidan was a media success, as was the ‘Orange Revolution’ 10 years earlier. But it was a strategic screw-up. It handed Crimea to Russia on a silver plate, that was simply not going to happen under any other circumstances. (Could Nuland be a mole?)

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  55. peterAUS says:
    @utu
    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama's mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia's propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.

    Apart from

    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea.

    agree.

    Especially agree with

    Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin

    Seen this debate tons of times so far.

    You have, say, “western” approach.
    Beckow “eastern”.
    Disregard the idiots, kids and high school fanbase members around.

    The question is really only “did West get overstretched by Ukraine”?
    If no, Russia lost.
    If yes, Russia is, slowly, winning.

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  56. Mulegino1 says:
    @utu
    They knew that prying Ukraine from Russia would force Russia to annex Crimea. So they did not count on getting Crimea. Ukraine minus Crimea was good enough. If Russia failed to act I am sure they would be more happy to get Crimea as a bonus. However by forcing Russia to act they got Russia where they wanted, i.e., aa a rouge state that does not respect international laws and thus can be sanctioned and isolated. Only squashing the Maidan coup would prevent it. Again somebody was asleep at the switch in Kremlin like in cases of Yugoslavia and Libya or simply Russia did not have means like lack of sufficient number of operatives in Kiev and Yanukovych regime. Perhaps Yanukovych was designated to do it but he did not want to be the fall guy who ends up with blood on his hands and then in the Hague court where Russia would certainly deliver him after restoring peace and control in Ukraine.

    You can console yourself that it was Obama's mistake and so on. Time will tell. In the meantime Russa was beaten in this round.

    Russia broke the international law in the same way as Nato broke it when they bombed Serbia to force independence for Kosovo Albanians. It is hard to complain about one and ignore the other.

    Yes, but this does not make any difference in the world as it is. Might makes right. The West defines the narrative by which all actions are later justified in international institutions. Russia's propaganda apparatus with RT and Sputnik are no match. Russia never was good in PR and this kind of soft power. Not before Bolshevik revolution and not after and not after the collapse of the USSR. Russia always concentrated its propaganda for internal consumption chiefly to convince the population of Russia that the leadership knows what it is doing and that its military is great. Every authoritarian regime does it. Russia has no tradition of non-authoritarian rule.

    Russia may never have been very good at propaganda during the age of mainstream media hegemony, but now- in the age of virtually absolute informational fluidity- there is no need for state sponsored propaganda. The current dichotomy is set in stone. The stupid mouth breathers will continue to accept the mainstream MINITRUE propaganda as gospel, while the more articulate and intelligent will accept the in depth and scholarly analysis provided them by the alternative media. All the latter have to do is to state the facts. The former have no choice but to spout their foolishly consistent kosher narratives. The latter will lose among those with even a modicum of cerebral ability, and they will continue to succeed among the lobotomized infotainment consumers.

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  57. Smiddy says:
    @Brabantian
    Mr Israel Shamir is quite wrong when he claims above that Seymour Hersh is « the most trustworthy US journalist » ... Sy Hersh is a psy-op, a dis-info agent of some decades (see below). Hersh's currently famous video & leak 'debunking Russia-gate', is a Trojan horse cover for a very ugly deception.

    Amidst Hersh's staged 'leak' - nicely pro-Trump to fool us - Hersh sells us a dodgy claim that Seth Rich was, he assures us, definitely NOT killed by mafias linked to Hillary Clinton ... but by some random street thug, according to Hersh's amazing 'secret inside sources' he always has when he is running a US gov psy-op ... this unknown 'street thug killed Seth Rich', but 'got scared' so didn't take Seth Rich's wallet ... uh-huh

    Hersh is also trying to distract us from the fact that we now have a string of people who are dead or in prison after contacting what are known as the oily US-Israeli intel frauds of Wikileaks & also The Intercept, which are in fact 'rat traps' to help identify, silence & kill real dissidents duped into contacting them.

    Wikileaks may have helped kill both Seth Rich, & another anti-Hillary leaker, Peter W Smith, also dead after contacting Wikileaks, with Assange absurdly claiming he never got any Smith files. Tho Assange posted a 'reward' for info about Seth Rich - funny how the USA international financial dragnet doesn't close Wikileaks fat bank accounts - Assange arguably may have set up the killing.

    Just to remind that, years ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski & Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu, both admitted that 'not really living in the London Ecuador Embassy' Julian Assange, & Wikileaks itself, are USA-Israeli intel agency frauds, the leaks all selected & controlled. Assange was the dry run for another fraud, that of Rothschild employee & ex-gay-p-rnographer Gleen Greenwald, who pumped the young friend of Dick Cheney & the Brzezinski family, 'Edward Snowden' ... who first claimed to 'leak' to Dick Cheney's biographer at the Washington Post ... with many other proofs of the fraud - a fraud Putin himself hints at, tho he plays along, not wishing to over-provoke the USA as Shamir states above - starting point on the Snowden fraud here:
    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/09/21/russia-govt-report-snowden-greenwald-are-cia-frauds/

    Assange & Greenwald & Snowden of course recommend the 'TOR' browser developed by United States Naval Research Laboratory employees working for US intel, as the 'safe' way to contact them, uh-huh, really secure

    In younger days, Seymour Hersh made his bones as a fake 'brave investigative reporter' who like other 'limited hang-outs' of the time, Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, etc, claimed the official JFK assassination story, lone gunman Oswald etc, was all perfectly fine & dandy ... the reward for all these people was their later fame.

    Hersh and all of these fakers are totally anti 9-11 truth, against even questioning the official narrative - Seymour Hersh, Hersh's current media partner Eric Zuesse, Glenn Greenwald, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange ... all of these dis-info people say the US official 9-11 story is just great, Israel had nothing to do with it, don't talk about the arrested 'dancing Israelis' or the 'Israeli art students' photographed in the Twin Towers with boxes of bomb detonator components a few weeks before 9-11, the pix in the New York Times, no less
    http://www.newnationalist.net/2017/03/02/world-trade-centers-infamous-91st-floor-israeli-art-student-project/

    Seymour Hersh - card-carrying member of the intel agency psy-op confusion brigade - also sold a greasy, absurd alt version of the 'Osama bin Laden assassination in 2011' fake story, Hersh claiming that Pakistani leaders helped to murder bin Laden & toss his body pieces from a helicopter, in total insult to their own Muslim religion HA. Whereas the actual evidence points to Osama bin Laden having died a decade earlier, shortly after the 9-11 attacks of which, in fact, the real bin Laden denied being involved.

    So I suppose Wikileaks blowing the whistle on Iraq during the Bush admin was to the globalist’s agenda?…

    So I suppose pedogate was only controlled information that the globalists wanted to get out as well?… Even though the corporate media has been locking that story down like their lives depended on it… Also funny how they release pedogate the day after Trump’s pussygate was made public… Whoever backs Wikileaks is in some type of alliance with Trump…

    Wikileaks is the result of the NWO-autonomous joint Russian-Israeli tech sector, and you don’t even know that Israeli Nationalists (e.g. Bibi, believe it or not, even though they colluded on 9/11, but I suppose the globalists wanted Israel to call out Soros last month smh) are opposing the Globalists/Rothschilds these days, so I suppose that shows how much you know. You don’t even know that there is a split between the “Zionists”, hell you probably think the Rothschilds/NWO are loyal to Jews and Israel before anything. Believe it or not, to some degree, they even use Israel as a front, and Israel has been biting their hand since atleast Contra (Carter was the bankster’s pick they did not want Reagan).

    All that said I actually agree on your original premise of Seymour but then you take it on a tangent. And upon closer observation you’re just another one of those emotional, “its all one giant conspiracy” pundits.

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    • Replies: @Kemerd
    Oh, he also thinks that there are really no nukes and that two Japanese cities were not actually nuked but fire-bombed. All in all, I think you wasted some of your time replying to him
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  58. utu says:

    there is a split between the “Zionists”

    There are lots of signs of it. For example what compelled Netanyahu to get cozy with Putin and let Putin have his little show of muscle flexing in Syria?

    The split however is not about the ultimate goal. There is only one goal and they agree on it. It is about the tactics and the priorities on the way to it.

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  59. Logan says:
    @white noise
    Putin was probably thinking of the radiation, which can last many years, and can be transported far by the wind and rain and rivers, and even sewage. In any case, I hope we won't have to test just how bad a nuclear war can be.

    No doubt. But presumably the radiation released by 500 megatons, ina lot fewer Bombs, would be much less than that released by 10,000 megatons.

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  60. Erebus says:
    @Israel Shamir
    I agree with Anatol. Korea's connection to China is much, much stronger than Russia's. During Korean War, the Russians had lost a few dozen men, Chinese had lost tens of thousands, or even more. Son of Mao was killed defending Korea. All overland links of North Korea lead to China. There is a short stretch of Russian-Korean border, but until very recently there was no road neither bridge.
    Korean trade with China is many times bigger than their trade with Russia.
    However, Koreans are very strong nationalists; they are suspicious of China, and of China's motives. Thy think China does not want to have strong Korea next to itself, and that is why the Chinese can easily be persuaded by the Americans to join them demanding nuclear disarmament.
    Both Russia and China have big Korean communities. As a bottom line, it would look strange for Russians to reject measures agreed by the US with Beijing.

    I think NK is China’s willing cat’s-paw (I realize the contradiction) and somewhat less so Russia’s. Their coordinated agreement to supporting the new sanctions is a tell-tale sign that something’s afoot. Normally, one of them would have abstained, so I assume there’s a trade in process. We’ll know soon enough, but I’m guessing Afghanistan and Iran, maybe Ukraine, are in play. The first stage of that deal may already be apparent in Afghanistan. Replacing regular US troops with mercenaries means the US can withdraw its troops gracefully, and opens the door for Russia and China to enter without risk of a direct confrontation. The mercenaries can operate under the media’s radar, and then leave even more quietly than they came.

    SK & JP are the Hegemon’s garrisoned outposts in Eastasia. NK is China’s low level disruption of their connection to the mothership. The more NK threatens, the wider the gap between the threat and the perception of what the US can actually accomplish appears. As the Pillsbury Dough Boy ratchets up to a threat-a-minute, and the US shouts back but remains stuck in its carriers and barracks, the gap will widen to the point where questions start to arise; not only in the mind of the public, but in every foreign office in every capital. You can bet your last dollar they’re already rising in SK and JP.
    OBOR is the carrot to the NK’s stick. Both JP and SK are slavering over the opportunities. Abe has met Putin 17 times. The Kuril islands are a cypher for the development of a new security structure in East Asia. SK and JP need a great power to balance China before they can plunge into OBOR’s endless profitability, and OBOR needs their engineering and construction capabilities.
    By agreeing to the sanctions, China and Russia are icing SK & JP to get Afghanistan (and Iran / Ukraine?) sorted first. 摸着石头过河, Crossing the river by feeling for stones.

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  61. Kemerd says:
    @Smiddy
    So I suppose Wikileaks blowing the whistle on Iraq during the Bush admin was to the globalist's agenda?...

    So I suppose pedogate was only controlled information that the globalists wanted to get out as well?... Even though the corporate media has been locking that story down like their lives depended on it... Also funny how they release pedogate the day after Trump's pussygate was made public... Whoever backs Wikileaks is in some type of alliance with Trump...

    Wikileaks is the result of the NWO-autonomous joint Russian-Israeli tech sector, and you don't even know that Israeli Nationalists (e.g. Bibi, believe it or not, even though they colluded on 9/11, but I suppose the globalists wanted Israel to call out Soros last month smh) are opposing the Globalists/Rothschilds these days, so I suppose that shows how much you know. You don't even know that there is a split between the "Zionists", hell you probably think the Rothschilds/NWO are loyal to Jews and Israel before anything. Believe it or not, to some degree, they even use Israel as a front, and Israel has been biting their hand since atleast Contra (Carter was the bankster's pick they did not want Reagan).

    All that said I actually agree on your original premise of Seymour but then you take it on a tangent. And upon closer observation you're just another one of those emotional, "its all one giant conspiracy" pundits.

    Oh, he also thinks that there are really no nukes and that two Japanese cities were not actually nuked but fire-bombed. All in all, I think you wasted some of your time replying to him

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