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Trump fans, that endangered and vanishing species, are going through hard times. Even a devoted admirer of the Orange Man couldn’t swallow his strange battle of words with Kim, his threats to Iran, his UNESCO farce – and keep a straight face. The only comfort is that Hillary would have been even worse. Is he a comic miscast, a buffoon? Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire.

The giant spaceship America still may crash under the unsupportable weight of its obligations and ambitions, and bury much of the world under its debris. (The Third World War is another name of that impending crash.) Trump is an expert in bankruptcies, and he was supposed to downsize and soft-land the ship in the best (for Americans) terms.

This is what he is doing, helped by the Congress and the mainstream media. Yes, you’ve heard it right. By limiting the manoeuvrability of the US President, by their open animosity to his proposals they speed up the landing. Perhaps it won’t be as soft as it would be in dreams, but without the Establishment’s resistance, Trump might be tempted to keep the ship flying.

The Middle East has been a place of huge American involvement for many years, and here – I write this after coming to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Moscow – the feeling of impending US withdrawal is particularly strong. Many years ago, the British Empire contracted and withdrew from many of its colonies and possessions; now it the US turn.

It is being said that Russia is moving in, while the US is moving out of the Middle East. This is not exactly so: the Russians can’t and won’t assume the Imperial functions in the area, or anywhere else. The Russians feel that the idea of one state ruling them all has outlived its practicality and is dead, for good. We are back in the multi-polar world of the 19th and early 20th centuries, with different actors, but the same paradigm. It makes the Russians try hard to stabilise the area, without becoming a sheriff-on-the-beat.

They achieved their centuries-old dream: gaining a foothold on the Mediterranean, on the other side of the Bosporus. That dream pulled Russia into World War One; and it has been obtained without heavy sacrifice. Now they seek stability, and that the neighbours of Syria get used to the Russian newcomers.

The Middle Eastern rulers, who feel that the US is out, flock to Moscow, while the emissaries of the Kremlin fly to the Middle East. They have to sort out and re-establish some regional order after the Syrian war. There are a few separate and still interconnected confrontations: Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Yemen, and the major players are Russia, the US, Israel, Turkey, Iran and the Saudis.

Israel is playing a dangerous game: it bombs the Syrian army almost daily. Despite their renowned anti-missile shield of the S-400, the Russians are not protecting Syrian targets, only their own bases. The Israeli planes decided that they may fly with impunity over Lebanon. Sometimes these are reconnaissance flights, sometimes these are bombing sorties. During their recent reconnaissance flight, the Israeli jets were met with Syrian anti-aircraft missiles of older generations, and apparently escaped unscathed (the Syrians claimed a hit, but this was not independently verified). Two hours later, the Israeli jets came and destroyed the Syrian missile battery. The Russians just sat tight and did nothing. This Russian silence has an interesting history and an important follow-up.

On his last visit to Russia, PM Netanyahu warned Putin that Israel would not quietly observe Iran and Hezbollah improving their positions versus Israel in Syria, and he demanded that the Russian remove the Iranians. Putin refused, but expressed his understanding. He promised to try and keep Iranians at five miles away from the Israeli border. He could not do much more even if he wanted.

Iran is a Russian ally in Syria and beyond. It participates (together with Turkey and Russia) in the Astana peace process. Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia form an important South-North route for oil and goods; Iran, Turkey and Russia plan a joint venture to supply gas to Europe. The Iranians supported Moscow in its fight against Chechen extremists supported by Washington, as Vladimir Putin described at length in his interview with Oliver Stone. The Iran-Russia relations are not those of great passionate love, but of good cooperation and coordination.

The Iranians in Syria do a lot of hard fighting; without them, Russia would have to send ground troops and Putin is reluctant to do this without a very good reason. (Dislike of Israel does not count.)

(Aside: There are some Russian troops in Syria, and there is one private Russian military contractor, usually called Wagner (for the composer of The Ride of the Valkyries). There were publications in Soros-owned Russian media claiming there were many casualties among them. However, I met a person with first hand knowledge of the Wagner Group, and he told me that their activity is very limited. They are no longer being armed, supplied and paid by the Russian MoD, as it was done for a while. The Russian Minister of Defence, Sergey Shoygu, a strong man of Mongolian stock, didn’t like having independent troops on the ground.

Now they are employed by a Syrian company as security guards for the oil fields. They say they are not being armed and paid as well as before, but still they stay. Their casualties are bearable, and the Russian armed forces have very few casualties, in spite of the dire predictions of 2015.)

ORDER IT NOW

My Arab friend visited Damascus, his native city, and he observed that the Syrians greatly prefer Russians to Persians, as the Persians do interfere and indoctrinate, as opposed to Russians. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, a great fighting force, try to turn the Alawites and other similar religious communities into good Iranian-style Shias. But these many sects of Shia origin were formed centuries ago, and they do not want to join the Persian orthodoxy. Imagine Catholics trying to bring the Protestants back into Roman fold. In addition, the Syrian Alawites feel that the Iranians are likely to antagonise the Sunni majority.

However, with all these drawbacks, the Iranians are good warriors, and they are needed for the Syrian government to win its battle. They proved their mettle last week when the Iraqi Shia forces (trained by the Revolutionary Guards) took Kirkuk, together with Iraqi government army, putting paid to the hare-brained Iraqi Kurdistan ‘independence’ project. Kurdistan had been announced as “the second Israel”, a secular non-Arab state friendly to Tel Aviv. Being a ‘second Israel’ is not a great recommendation in the area still troubled by the first one.

Kurdistan took a page from the Israeli book and ethnically cleansed Arabs and Turcoman tribes from its own area and from the adjacent area of Kirkuk and Mosul governorates. The Kirkuk area with its oil fields is of particular importance and value. It was taken by the Kurds when Daesh (the Islamic State) expelled the Iraqi Army. Daesh didn’t fight the Kurds, who allegedly helped the Islamists take Mosul. Beside being ‘a second Israel’, Kurds were locally considered ‘a second Daesh’, another Israeli-American project to break fragile Arab unity.

As opposed to Israel, Kurdistan did not manage things well. The lord of Erbil, Masoud Barzani, called himself the ‘President of Kurdistan’, though he was not recognized as such even by the Kurds of the second largest city Sulaymaniyah; he decreed himself a huge salary. Though he officially received more per month than President Obama received per year, it was not enough, and the man privatized the oil profits and became a multibillionaire.

What was worse, he was a bad manager. While oil was expensive, Kurdistan stopped producing anything at all but oil. The rest of its population lived on handouts for loyalty. When oil became cheap, the economy of Kurdistan crashed, and with 20 billion of national debt, Barzani decided to double the stakes and declared the independence of his autonomy including Kirkuk. He hoped Israel and the US wouldn’t let the Iraqis call his bluff, as he had American military instructors and Israeli advisers. Besides, he believed the PR myth of Kurdish military prowess, of his fighting Amazons.

It turned out the Kurdish soldiers did not want to die for Barzani, for they knew Kirkuk has never belonged to the Kurds. They withdrew with little fighting, and the Iraqi Shia militias trained by Iran took over Kirkuk for the Iraqi state. The Israelis were upset. Trump had betrayed an ally, wrote Haaretz, and Iran has been allowed to gain the upper hand. It was a great relief for everybody else: for ethnically cleansed Arabs and Turcoman as they can now return home, for Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria as as independent Kurdistan would encourage sedition in their states. Thus the Iranians saved the Damascus government from the real danger of Kurd secession.

And now we come to the Israeli part. The destruction of the Syrian battery I referred to above had a complication. That was done on the day that Sergey Shoygu, the Russian Minister of Defence, visited Tel Aviv. Though the Israelis claimed they notified the Russians in advance, actually they notified them post factum, and Shoygu received the news from his headquarters when his plane was on the tarmac ready to take off to Israel. What’s worse, he received it on his phone, not by secure connection.

Shoygu was very annoyed by this welcoming present, and he expressed his dissatisfaction to his Israeli hosts. They coolly replied that while they take notice of Russia’s interests in Syria, they need nobody’s advice when their security is on stake.

This was probably a mistake, a very common one for the Israelis. They always push too hard, escalate confrontation in deep belief this will give them a great win. The results are often sad.

(Aside: I remember as a young soldier I served in the War of Attrition on the Suez Canal; the Israelis endlessly escalated the conflict, bombing Egyptian cities and refusing negotiations, until the Russians moved their anti-aircraft systems to the Canal. That was it, the Israelis lost their air superiority and quietly asked for a cease-fire. Another example, the Israelis killed the head of Hezbollah, and as the result, Seyid Nasr Allah became the new head and a much more efficient one.)

This time, too, their aggressive attitude was counterproductive. The Defence Minister of Iran stepped into the breach and promised to help Syria to secure its skies. This offer may have two possible consequences. One, the Russians will feel jealous and will seal the airspace of Syria and Lebanon against the Israeli Air Force. Two, the Russians will stand aside and allow (perhaps assist) Iranians to do this job. In both cases, Iranian positions in Syria will improve, and Israelis will lose their freedom to operate over Lebanon and Syria.

Israeli intransigence is unlikely to pay off regarding the Palestinian reconciliation. Two main parties, the PLO (mainly Fatah) ruling the West Bank, and Hamas ruling Gaza strip, succeeded in settling their differences. Gaza will come under the rule of PNA. Israelis were furious. They always enjoyed inter-Palestinian cold war; this allowed them to say they can’t negotiate with Mahmud Abbas as he represents only the West Bank. Now they say they can’t negotiate because Hamas are terrorists.

They demanded three preconditions from Hamas: (1) recognise Israel, (2) disarm, (3) stop anti-Israeli propaganda. Hamas replied: when hell will frieze over. The US supported the Israeli refusal, and said they will stop their financial help to the PNA if Fatah and Hamas fully join in one government.

Russia took over the reconciliation efforts management. Hamas leaders went to Moscow, and they were well received. I was present at their press conference, and I have heard of their optimistic prognosis. Immediately after them, the Fatah people went to Moscow, and were well received. Moscow wants them to make up and kiss. Probably it will happen. But what about the Israeli threats?

ORDER IT NOW

Now Hamas leaders went to Iran to ask for their support. The Iranians promised to help. Thus unnecessary Israeli intransigence has allowed Iran to enter Gaza on a much stronger footing. You may say that Russia/Iran play the good cop/bad cop game. Russia proposes peace initiatives, and when they are rejected, enter Iran with the military alternative. (This was the case in Kurdistan, too: Russians begged Barzani to postpone his quest for independence for some years, he did not listen, and then Iran came in and took Kirkuk.)

Israeli defence minister Mr Lieberman said this week that in near future, Israel will fight a three-front war at once: in Lebanon, in Syria and in Gaza. In all three locations, Israelis will find the Iranians waiting for them. That is, unless the Israelis agree with Russian ideas. What about the US? Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable. If the US will stay out, a sort of peaceful arrangement is possible.

Another angle of the new configuration has been provided by Turkey, where President Erdogan practically broke with the US in a very public way. The Turkish police arrested a Turkish employee of the American consulate in Turkey. The US responded heavy-handedly, by ceasing to issue visas for Turks. The Turks responded by ceasing to issue visas for Americans.

This tit-for-tat comes right after Turkish decision to buy the S-400, the Russian missile defence system, which annoyed the US immensely. Removal of German (NATO) forces from the most important air base in Turkey practically took Turkey out of NATO. Turks also helped Russia and Iran undermine the short-lived Kurdistan independence: they closed the border for Kurdistan oil, and the land-locked small state economy went into a free fall.

The Saudis, the reliable and preferred friend of the US, began to feel heat. Recently the old King Salman of KSA came to Moscow on a grand visit. He promised to buy the fashionable S-400, and complained that Iran is too active and powerful in the region.

More importantly for the Russians, the Saudis agreed to cut their oil production output to keep the price up. The Russians have still nightmares from the late 1980s, when Saudis, at the US request, dropped oil price to five dollar a barrel and undermined the Soviet Union. Now it seems the Saudis and the Russians quietly do business together.

There weren’t high expectations of the Saudi royal visit: Saudis have little money left, and their promises often remain just that, promises. ‘Promising to marry’ is not the same ‘to marry’, people say. However, the visit confirms that the countries of the Middle East accepted Russia as one of the key countries in the region, and this counts.

These are the main points of the Middle Eastern realignment now under way. It is being formed now in front of our eyes, and it seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace.

Israel Shamir can be reached at adam@israelshamir.net

This article was first published at The Unz Review.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Iran, Israel, Kurds, Middle East, Russia 
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  1. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of our presence in the ME. I believe this trend started with the defeat of Israel in the 2006 war against the Hezbollah that set in motion a significant number of dynamics that have led up to current events. This was prophesied in an excellent article in the Asia Times back in 2006: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    There are none so blind as those that refuse to see. Israel continues to double down on failed experiments. It fails to realize that it cannot survive by force, and as many in Israel have stated, its only hope is to play nice with its neighbors in the hope that they may forgive and forget, as long as there is a just resolution for the Palestinians.

    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire.

    I don’t know if I would credit Trump with the kind of 3D chess playing that Israel Shamir appears to be doing. If there is a strategy buried in the buffoonery that we have been witnessing since January, then I must be too dense to perceive it. It beggars belief that he is such a superhuman as to effect the disarray in his cabinet and singlehandedly proceed with a grand masterplan that would have put Machiavelli to shame!

    I do believe that Mr. Shamir is correct that Iranian command of Syrian and Lebanese skies is imminent and I can’t even begin to wonder at the hubris of Israel in continuing to bomb Syrian military targets without any proof of provocation from Syrian government forces. Perhaps they have forgotten the 2006 war when their intelligence agencies provided them with the certainty of a quick victory, vastly underestimating Hezbollah capabilities, or perhaps, they feel they have learned from that 34-day war and are now capable of taking on Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Perhaps they think the US will salvage their chestnuts from the fire and once again jump into the fray with out blood and treasure to protect their sorry asses. This is not a war that the US can win – not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power.

    I am skeptical of Israel’s ability to prevail in such a conflict.

    It may be premature to predict the demise of Israel in the near-term, but the writing is on the wall. It may not be today, and it may not be tomorrow, but Israel’s days are numbered. What remains to be be seen is whether it goes out with a whimper or if it goes out with a bang.

    I penned this comment on another site for a post speculating on just such an end for Israel:

    The colorful sunset in the skies to the west are obscured by the towering mushroom of flames over Dimona – a flash, a boom, followed by fainter explosions, and then an eerie hush descends before a collective gasp from the sudden intake of breath, and then the thunder of applause rejoicing the demise of the greatest evil the world has ever known, watching with glee as the tower of Sauron crumbles to the ground and 7 million rats scramble to escape that sinking fetid ship and swim for other shores. No welcoming arms await them.

    It has long been coming. They all said pride would have a fall. Nothing is permanent. But pride can blind and nations have no friends, just interests. The interests of today seldom persist into tomorrow when the toll is heavy and the price is intolerable. Kings die and empires fail. All we can influence is what comes next. The wise make friends at their pinnacle in the hope of mercy when the water crests the dam. The foolish believe in their immortality.

    Read More
    • Replies: @schmenz
    I must agree with you that Mr Trump shows no signs of strategic thinking in whatever he has been doing. And just what has he been doing, other than confusing everyone in the world ? One thing he apparently is not confusing about is his disgusting subservience to Israel. If that is the be-all and end-all of his "strategy" then I find absolutely no hope for him. Or for us.
    , @renfro
    ''This is not a war that the US can win – not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power'>>>>>


    Greetings Cloak, American here.

    No, it is not a war the US can win...particular with the possibility of Russian wings in the ME.
    BUT....there is still the US congress who doesn't live on planet Reality.
    Since the imbecilic invasion of Iraq I have nothing but the utmost faith in their incurable stupidity.
    I hope Shamir is 100% in his information.
    , @macilrae
    A pretty insightful response and, based on what we've been seeing from Trump, I have also discarded my original hope that he might have a 'deep' strategy behind all that clowning. More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad - more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. And that is good for us all and especially for ordinary Americans whose infrastructure at home is now so degraded.

    Mr Shamir says:


    Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable.
     
    This is the 'wild card' - unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear - so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.
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  2. How does Israel Shamir get all this information? I don’t doubt any of it, I just am totally in awe.

    “Israelis will lose their freedom to operate over Lebanon and Syria.” — Shamir

    That’s the test case, right there, so we shall see what we shall see. And then there’s the question of whether or if Israel can call upon Uncle Sam to get involved in an air space war over the old Levant. As for USA’s attacking Iran, that’s the one thing even Shamir hasn’t figured out. It seems to me, just an opinion, that “the generals” that Trump has made “the deciders” … it seems like they are not interested in taking Iran on in “full spectrum” warfare. USA, especially these days, seems to want to get into it only when they are sure of “overwhelming” force on their side — plus no risk to major assets.

    Read More
    • Agree: schmenz
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  3. Such optimism! So Trump will take the stairs rather than the window?

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    • Agree: Grandpa Charlie
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  4. schmenz says:
    @Cloak And Dagger
    I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of our presence in the ME. I believe this trend started with the defeat of Israel in the 2006 war against the Hezbollah that set in motion a significant number of dynamics that have led up to current events. This was prophesied in an excellent article in the Asia Times back in 2006: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    There are none so blind as those that refuse to see. Israel continues to double down on failed experiments. It fails to realize that it cannot survive by force, and as many in Israel have stated, its only hope is to play nice with its neighbors in the hope that they may forgive and forget, as long as there is a just resolution for the Palestinians.


    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire.

     

    I don't know if I would credit Trump with the kind of 3D chess playing that Israel Shamir appears to be doing. If there is a strategy buried in the buffoonery that we have been witnessing since January, then I must be too dense to perceive it. It beggars belief that he is such a superhuman as to effect the disarray in his cabinet and singlehandedly proceed with a grand masterplan that would have put Machiavelli to shame!

    I do believe that Mr. Shamir is correct that Iranian command of Syrian and Lebanese skies is imminent and I can't even begin to wonder at the hubris of Israel in continuing to bomb Syrian military targets without any proof of provocation from Syrian government forces. Perhaps they have forgotten the 2006 war when their intelligence agencies provided them with the certainty of a quick victory, vastly underestimating Hezbollah capabilities, or perhaps, they feel they have learned from that 34-day war and are now capable of taking on Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Perhaps they think the US will salvage their chestnuts from the fire and once again jump into the fray with out blood and treasure to protect their sorry asses. This is not a war that the US can win - not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power.

    I am skeptical of Israel's ability to prevail in such a conflict.

    It may be premature to predict the demise of Israel in the near-term, but the writing is on the wall. It may not be today, and it may not be tomorrow, but Israel's days are numbered. What remains to be be seen is whether it goes out with a whimper or if it goes out with a bang.

    I penned this comment on another site for a post speculating on just such an end for Israel:

    The colorful sunset in the skies to the west are obscured by the towering mushroom of flames over Dimona – a flash, a boom, followed by fainter explosions, and then an eerie hush descends before a collective gasp from the sudden intake of breath, and then the thunder of applause rejoicing the demise of the greatest evil the world has ever known, watching with glee as the tower of Sauron crumbles to the ground and 7 million rats scramble to escape that sinking fetid ship and swim for other shores. No welcoming arms await them.

    It has long been coming. They all said pride would have a fall. Nothing is permanent. But pride can blind and nations have no friends, just interests. The interests of today seldom persist into tomorrow when the toll is heavy and the price is intolerable. Kings die and empires fail. All we can influence is what comes next. The wise make friends at their pinnacle in the hope of mercy when the water crests the dam. The foolish believe in their immortality.

    I must agree with you that Mr Trump shows no signs of strategic thinking in whatever he has been doing. And just what has he been doing, other than confusing everyone in the world ? One thing he apparently is not confusing about is his disgusting subservience to Israel. If that is the be-all and end-all of his “strategy” then I find absolutely no hope for him. Or for us.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wally
    As Shamir correctly stated:

    "The only comfort is that Hillary would have been even worse."

    Sometimes you just have to take what you can get. And I'll take Trump over Hillary any day.

    Thanks.
    , @Cloak And Dagger
    I agree. No matter how bad Trump is, Hillary would be a certainty to take us to war with Iran. Let's see if Uranium One finally nails her.
    , @Craig Morris
    Maybe Trump is the Being There President. As long as the roots are not severed, all is well and all will be well in the garden. I like to watch.
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  5. Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire. …..

    Trump is an expert in bankruptcies, and he was supposed to downsize and soft-land the ship in the best (for Americans) terms.

    This is what he is doing, helped by the Congress and the mainstream media. Yes, you’ve heard it right. By limiting the manoeuvrability of the US President, by their open animosity to his proposals they speed up the landing. Perhaps it won’t be as soft as it would be in dreams, but without the Establishment’s resistance, Trump might be tempted to keep the ship flying.

    The Middle East has been a place of huge American involvement for many years, and here – I write this after coming to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Moscow – the feeling of impending US withdrawal is particularly strong. Many years ago, the British Empire contracted and withdrew from many of its colonies and possessions; now it the US turn.

    … seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace

    Now there’s optimism, clothed in realism! But how will Trump and his generals be able to take credit for peace that falls out of the sky like rain with no victory to celebrate? And doesn’t this all pose an existential threat to USA’s “defense industry”? But that’s okay, I’m willing to believe it!

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Russia does it in one or 2 face to face meetings . It does without fanfare, without enduring of any of the spending of enormous times on media, cabinet discussion, listening to expert testimonies, and without evocation of the grand past. The reality guided principle and self interest always call the shots. That is the way it should be

    Given these facts , it is very clear that the brining of warring parties together are never the priority of US. It is safe to claim that the warring parties are kept at a distance from each other by US policy It is obvious America doesn’t want any negotiation . It is clear America thrives by escalating war conflicts by waging war on any proposal that could offer peace It chides, it bribes, it makes threats to keep the parties in permanent war and distrusts.

    If American policy were any different , we would not have had the experience of the Gulf war .
    , @druid
    I really think the US involvement and unequivocal support of Israel is the main reason it has fallen so far! The US has been manipulated to spend it's resources and goodwill for the "chosen" to their detriment. It has happened before in every place where the "chosen" wielded financial and thus political power!
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  6. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Grandpa Charlie

    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire. .....

    Trump is an expert in bankruptcies, and he was supposed to downsize and soft-land the ship in the best (for Americans) terms.

    This is what he is doing, helped by the Congress and the mainstream media. Yes, you’ve heard it right. By limiting the manoeuvrability of the US President, by their open animosity to his proposals they speed up the landing. Perhaps it won’t be as soft as it would be in dreams, but without the Establishment’s resistance, Trump might be tempted to keep the ship flying.

    The Middle East has been a place of huge American involvement for many years, and here – I write this after coming to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Moscow – the feeling of impending US withdrawal is particularly strong. Many years ago, the British Empire contracted and withdrew from many of its colonies and possessions; now it the US turn.

    ... seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace
     
    Now there's optimism, clothed in realism! But how will Trump and his generals be able to take credit for peace that falls out of the sky like rain with no victory to celebrate? And doesn't this all pose an existential threat to USA's "defense industry"? But that's okay, I'm willing to believe it!

    Russia does it in one or 2 face to face meetings . It does without fanfare, without enduring of any of the spending of enormous times on media, cabinet discussion, listening to expert testimonies, and without evocation of the grand past. The reality guided principle and self interest always call the shots. That is the way it should be

    Given these facts , it is very clear that the brining of warring parties together are never the priority of US. It is safe to claim that the warring parties are kept at a distance from each other by US policy It is obvious America doesn’t want any negotiation . It is clear America thrives by escalating war conflicts by waging war on any proposal that could offer peace It chides, it bribes, it makes threats to keep the parties in permanent war and distrusts.

    If American policy were any different , we would not have had the experience of the Gulf war .

    Read More
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  7. “… and it seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace.”

    As Scarlett O’Hara once said, “Dreams, dreams always dreams with you, never common sense.”

    In a polity run by a relatively tight group of oligarchs, they have the option to pull back from the brink when they realise the gig is up. In a self-styled indispensible nation run by a rather large group of special interests, many of whom make their fortunes by taking their vig from social-welfare money conjured up by issuing the “flight to safety” go-to bonds in exchange for recycled petrodollars, and with many others still making money by selling weapons du jour to the next big threat to global security, as they style states like North Korea and Iran, it is merely wishful thinking to suppose that the indispensible nation is going to stop stirring up shit in any part of the world. In fact, they are doubling down in places like Africa to that very end.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    I wonder why America didn't respond to the Kurdish request over in Iraq but made it in Syria .
    Is it Syria where the government can't withstand the pressure of Neocons ? How could go they do it in Iraq despite having Iran in the earshot ? why it is doubling down on Afghanistan?

    Or is it a matter of time before US returns to Kurdistan ?
    , @Grandpa Charlie
    The impression I get from anon and The Alarmist is that the "rather large group of special interests" that control USA's military, as puppets on strings, is that they are like the loosely affiliated gang, always at each others' throats, that were forever moving constantly around the world in pursuit of the Maltese Falcon. And ... what do I know? ... maybe so, maybe so It could even be that USA's MIC is selling nukes and ICBMs to North Korea.
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  8. Wally says: • Website
    @schmenz
    I must agree with you that Mr Trump shows no signs of strategic thinking in whatever he has been doing. And just what has he been doing, other than confusing everyone in the world ? One thing he apparently is not confusing about is his disgusting subservience to Israel. If that is the be-all and end-all of his "strategy" then I find absolutely no hope for him. Or for us.

    As Shamir correctly stated:

    “The only comfort is that Hillary would have been even worse.”

    Sometimes you just have to take what you can get. And I’ll take Trump over Hillary any day.

    Thanks.

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  9. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @The Alarmist

    "... and it seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace."
     
    As Scarlett O'Hara once said, "Dreams, dreams always dreams with you, never common sense."

    In a polity run by a relatively tight group of oligarchs, they have the option to pull back from the brink when they realise the gig is up. In a self-styled indispensible nation run by a rather large group of special interests, many of whom make their fortunes by taking their vig from social-welfare money conjured up by issuing the "flight to safety" go-to bonds in exchange for recycled petrodollars, and with many others still making money by selling weapons du jour to the next big threat to global security, as they style states like North Korea and Iran, it is merely wishful thinking to suppose that the indispensible nation is going to stop stirring up shit in any part of the world. In fact, they are doubling down in places like Africa to that very end.

    I wonder why America didn’t respond to the Kurdish request over in Iraq but made it in Syria .
    Is it Syria where the government can’t withstand the pressure of Neocons ? How could go they do it in Iraq despite having Iran in the earshot ? why it is doubling down on Afghanistan?

    Or is it a matter of time before US returns to Kurdistan ?

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  10. renfro says:
    @Cloak And Dagger
    I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of our presence in the ME. I believe this trend started with the defeat of Israel in the 2006 war against the Hezbollah that set in motion a significant number of dynamics that have led up to current events. This was prophesied in an excellent article in the Asia Times back in 2006: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    There are none so blind as those that refuse to see. Israel continues to double down on failed experiments. It fails to realize that it cannot survive by force, and as many in Israel have stated, its only hope is to play nice with its neighbors in the hope that they may forgive and forget, as long as there is a just resolution for the Palestinians.


    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire.

     

    I don't know if I would credit Trump with the kind of 3D chess playing that Israel Shamir appears to be doing. If there is a strategy buried in the buffoonery that we have been witnessing since January, then I must be too dense to perceive it. It beggars belief that he is such a superhuman as to effect the disarray in his cabinet and singlehandedly proceed with a grand masterplan that would have put Machiavelli to shame!

    I do believe that Mr. Shamir is correct that Iranian command of Syrian and Lebanese skies is imminent and I can't even begin to wonder at the hubris of Israel in continuing to bomb Syrian military targets without any proof of provocation from Syrian government forces. Perhaps they have forgotten the 2006 war when their intelligence agencies provided them with the certainty of a quick victory, vastly underestimating Hezbollah capabilities, or perhaps, they feel they have learned from that 34-day war and are now capable of taking on Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Perhaps they think the US will salvage their chestnuts from the fire and once again jump into the fray with out blood and treasure to protect their sorry asses. This is not a war that the US can win - not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power.

    I am skeptical of Israel's ability to prevail in such a conflict.

    It may be premature to predict the demise of Israel in the near-term, but the writing is on the wall. It may not be today, and it may not be tomorrow, but Israel's days are numbered. What remains to be be seen is whether it goes out with a whimper or if it goes out with a bang.

    I penned this comment on another site for a post speculating on just such an end for Israel:

    The colorful sunset in the skies to the west are obscured by the towering mushroom of flames over Dimona – a flash, a boom, followed by fainter explosions, and then an eerie hush descends before a collective gasp from the sudden intake of breath, and then the thunder of applause rejoicing the demise of the greatest evil the world has ever known, watching with glee as the tower of Sauron crumbles to the ground and 7 million rats scramble to escape that sinking fetid ship and swim for other shores. No welcoming arms await them.

    It has long been coming. They all said pride would have a fall. Nothing is permanent. But pride can blind and nations have no friends, just interests. The interests of today seldom persist into tomorrow when the toll is heavy and the price is intolerable. Kings die and empires fail. All we can influence is what comes next. The wise make friends at their pinnacle in the hope of mercy when the water crests the dam. The foolish believe in their immortality.

    ”This is not a war that the US can win – not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power’>>>>>

    Greetings Cloak, American here.

    No, it is not a war the US can win…particular with the possibility of Russian wings in the ME.
    BUT….there is still the US congress who doesn’t live on planet Reality.
    Since the imbecilic invasion of Iraq I have nothing but the utmost faith in their incurable stupidity.
    I hope Shamir is 100% in his information.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger
    Hey American! Good to see you here at UR!

    BUT….there is still the US congress who doesn’t live on planet Reality.
     
    Yep, as we have both written before, our congress is Pat Buchanan's Israeli occupied territory - bribed and/or blackmailed to subservience to the Jewish cabal. I don't know why the people of Arizona keep reelecting McCain - it makes one suspect that the voting system is rigged as many have claimed.

    If we do end up attacking Iran, it is over for us. The only solace I would take from such an eventuality is that the US would still exist (however maimed), while there would no longer be an Israel. A nuclear attack on Iran would do severe damage (from the planes that made it through their S-300 defenses), but they would still survive in their mountainous terrain, while Dimona would go up in a mushroom cloud under the hail of (conventional) Iranian (and Hezbollah) rockets and Tel Aviv would be no more than a pulsating glowing pile in satellite photos. Iranian swarm boats would destroy our fleet in the Persian Gulf, blocking all commercial shipments, and bring world economy to a complete stop. You can bet that Iran won't be alone in retaliating - Syria, Lebanon, and perhaps Turkey would join the fray - and I can't quite see Putin sitting still as his bases in the ME are attacked by US/Israel. In this WW3, I am not confident any of our European allies would be on our side as their own economies will be obliterated along with ours. Where would China stand in this conflict? Probably not on the sidelines waiting for it to be over, as they need the oil that the ME and Russia provide. Russia and China are both nuclear nations. A nuclear attack by Israel would have a swift retaliation. How about nuclear Pakistan?

    But, I don't see that happening. No matter how out of touch with reality our congress is, attacking Iran would be a bridge too far. Despite the continuous bleating of our jewish media that Iran has nukes, nobody in the world believes them - not the IAEA, not our European allies, and not even our somnambulant citizenry at home. We have not seen war on our soil within our parents', lifetime or our own, but we have seen economic despair in that time span, and the one that would follow the above events would be unlike any that anyone has ever seen before.

    Hungry citizenry kills kings and topples kingdoms. Our congress may be stupid, but they are not suicidal.
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  11. 5371 says:

    A good and perceptive piece. Like all heterodox sects in the Middle East, Alawites approve of fitting in as much as possible with the larger religious communities. Burckhardt describes how the Druze elite would attend Maronite and Sunni worship indifferently.

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  12. @The Alarmist

    "... and it seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace."
     
    As Scarlett O'Hara once said, "Dreams, dreams always dreams with you, never common sense."

    In a polity run by a relatively tight group of oligarchs, they have the option to pull back from the brink when they realise the gig is up. In a self-styled indispensible nation run by a rather large group of special interests, many of whom make their fortunes by taking their vig from social-welfare money conjured up by issuing the "flight to safety" go-to bonds in exchange for recycled petrodollars, and with many others still making money by selling weapons du jour to the next big threat to global security, as they style states like North Korea and Iran, it is merely wishful thinking to suppose that the indispensible nation is going to stop stirring up shit in any part of the world. In fact, they are doubling down in places like Africa to that very end.

    The impression I get from anon and The Alarmist is that the “rather large group of special interests” that control USA’s military, as puppets on strings, is that they are like the loosely affiliated gang, always at each others’ throats, that were forever moving constantly around the world in pursuit of the Maltese Falcon. And … what do I know? … maybe so, maybe so It could even be that USA’s MIC is selling nukes and ICBMs to North Korea.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    I inadvertently left a word out of my last post, so it kind of reads like I suggest we are selling weapons to NK and Iran ... while I do not believe that to be the case, it might not be outside the realm of possibility.

    The point clearly is that the US is pumping up the severity of all these "threats" precisely as a pretext for selling arms to our various client-States not to mention our own continuing buildup.
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  13. Combine the completion of the naval bases in Djbouti and Pakistan by China with the Russian naval base in Syria and the US is going to have a hard time continuing gun-boat diplomacy in the ME.

    https://robertmagill.wordpress.com/2017/10/14/mankind-a-bogus-species/

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  14. gT says:

    Nice calm well reasoned article, not all the hype and drama and noise as seems to be the norm in the adhd MSM.

    Though not all can handle loss of “status” in a dignified fashion, hopefully the soft landings in the ME and the USA will happen.

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  15. macilrae says:
    @Cloak And Dagger
    I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of our presence in the ME. I believe this trend started with the defeat of Israel in the 2006 war against the Hezbollah that set in motion a significant number of dynamics that have led up to current events. This was prophesied in an excellent article in the Asia Times back in 2006: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    There are none so blind as those that refuse to see. Israel continues to double down on failed experiments. It fails to realize that it cannot survive by force, and as many in Israel have stated, its only hope is to play nice with its neighbors in the hope that they may forgive and forget, as long as there is a just resolution for the Palestinians.


    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire.

     

    I don't know if I would credit Trump with the kind of 3D chess playing that Israel Shamir appears to be doing. If there is a strategy buried in the buffoonery that we have been witnessing since January, then I must be too dense to perceive it. It beggars belief that he is such a superhuman as to effect the disarray in his cabinet and singlehandedly proceed with a grand masterplan that would have put Machiavelli to shame!

    I do believe that Mr. Shamir is correct that Iranian command of Syrian and Lebanese skies is imminent and I can't even begin to wonder at the hubris of Israel in continuing to bomb Syrian military targets without any proof of provocation from Syrian government forces. Perhaps they have forgotten the 2006 war when their intelligence agencies provided them with the certainty of a quick victory, vastly underestimating Hezbollah capabilities, or perhaps, they feel they have learned from that 34-day war and are now capable of taking on Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Perhaps they think the US will salvage their chestnuts from the fire and once again jump into the fray with out blood and treasure to protect their sorry asses. This is not a war that the US can win - not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power.

    I am skeptical of Israel's ability to prevail in such a conflict.

    It may be premature to predict the demise of Israel in the near-term, but the writing is on the wall. It may not be today, and it may not be tomorrow, but Israel's days are numbered. What remains to be be seen is whether it goes out with a whimper or if it goes out with a bang.

    I penned this comment on another site for a post speculating on just such an end for Israel:

    The colorful sunset in the skies to the west are obscured by the towering mushroom of flames over Dimona – a flash, a boom, followed by fainter explosions, and then an eerie hush descends before a collective gasp from the sudden intake of breath, and then the thunder of applause rejoicing the demise of the greatest evil the world has ever known, watching with glee as the tower of Sauron crumbles to the ground and 7 million rats scramble to escape that sinking fetid ship and swim for other shores. No welcoming arms await them.

    It has long been coming. They all said pride would have a fall. Nothing is permanent. But pride can blind and nations have no friends, just interests. The interests of today seldom persist into tomorrow when the toll is heavy and the price is intolerable. Kings die and empires fail. All we can influence is what comes next. The wise make friends at their pinnacle in the hope of mercy when the water crests the dam. The foolish believe in their immortality.

    A pretty insightful response and, based on what we’ve been seeing from Trump, I have also discarded my original hope that he might have a ‘deep’ strategy behind all that clowning. More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad – more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. And that is good for us all and especially for ordinary Americans whose infrastructure at home is now so degraded.

    Mr Shamir says:

    Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable.

    This is the ‘wild card’ – unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear – so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    This is the ‘wild card’ – unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear – so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.
     
    As I have written above, this is very unlikely.
    , @Jan2087
    Mr Shamir is right on every single point in this article.
    , @pogohere
    "More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad – more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. "

    I agree, but would put it this way: Trump is the president US culture (too hifalutin a word, but it'll do) produced. He has just the right galloping narcissim, egotism and execrable taste that one should expect of the "leader" who best represents the final result of the American century. I believe this explains why so many people freaked out upon his election. When they looked at the mirror he is they damn near died of embarrassment and humiliation at the image that reflected back to them their ersatz education: the triumph of an illusory reality created by the manipulators of virtually all American media for the past 100+ years (see Adam Curtis's "Century of the Self"), that creamy, sweet, soft, nougatty Brave New World coating over a hard Orwellian core created by the manipulators of virtually all American media.
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  16. @Grandpa Charlie
    The impression I get from anon and The Alarmist is that the "rather large group of special interests" that control USA's military, as puppets on strings, is that they are like the loosely affiliated gang, always at each others' throats, that were forever moving constantly around the world in pursuit of the Maltese Falcon. And ... what do I know? ... maybe so, maybe so It could even be that USA's MIC is selling nukes and ICBMs to North Korea.

    I inadvertently left a word out of my last post, so it kind of reads like I suggest we are selling weapons to NK and Iran … while I do not believe that to be the case, it might not be outside the realm of possibility.

    The point clearly is that the US is pumping up the severity of all these “threats” precisely as a pretext for selling arms to our various client-States not to mention our own continuing buildup.

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  17. Joe Hide says:

    Mr. Shamir,
    I read most of your articles all the way through (This is quite a compliment!) because of the honest realism you present. It is a gift to have a great mind (That is also oriented toward the the improvement of the human condition) help the rest of us know reality better.

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  18. wayfarer says:

    Sharing, is a difficult social skill to learn.

    But even a spoiled trust-fund kid like Israel, may learn to share with other kids in the Middle East sandbox, someday.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    Hannity: "These kids that are funded by Hamas and Hezbollah...they grow up hating...."

    Israeli kids on the other hand grow up 'with love' : it says right there on the bomb shell that the lovely little Israeli girls wrote.

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7760/1663/1600/more%20girls%20signing%20bombs.2.jpg


    Sick world.
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  19. The author’s standard pro-Putin line. Putin is in Syria to stay, the beauty of his mighty and irrestible weapons is dazzling, Turkey is practically out of NATO and is on the point of allowing Putin to annex the Straits, Israel is going to have to capitilate to Putin, the Saudis already have, Trump is capitulating to Putin but, oh gosh, if the nasties in Congress didn’t keep trying to stop him, he might stop trying to capitulate. If the author hadn’t laid it on so thick, it might have been mildly credible. As it is, it sounds like total panic in the Putin camp! The “problem” is how does any of this benefit Putin? He’s irreversibly bogged down in Syria just as the Soviets were in Afghanistan. He has installed a puppet regime and he is now forced to prop up that regime for all time and against all comers. The US has the initiative. It can re-launch the war in Syria anytime it wants. It can attack Iran anytime it wants. Putin is forced to sit and wait to see what the US does and then react to it. This is why I keep saying that the logical next step for Putin’s supporters is to try to install a pro-Putin stooge in Israel in place of Netanyahu. On past performance, that will probably blow up in their faces too!

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    • LOL: schmenz
    • Replies: @Wally
    Hillary has spoken.
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  20. The U.S. is under the control of Zionists and that means that Israel will go to war against Syria and Iran and the U.S. will be thrown into the slaughter house to protect Israel and so as usual more Americans will be sent to die for Zionist Israel.

    Israel will in the end destroy America , just as a parasite destroys its host, so shall it be.

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  21. @renfro
    ''This is not a war that the US can win – not by any stretch, history has shown the limits of our power'>>>>>


    Greetings Cloak, American here.

    No, it is not a war the US can win...particular with the possibility of Russian wings in the ME.
    BUT....there is still the US congress who doesn't live on planet Reality.
    Since the imbecilic invasion of Iraq I have nothing but the utmost faith in their incurable stupidity.
    I hope Shamir is 100% in his information.

    Hey American! Good to see you here at UR!

    BUT….there is still the US congress who doesn’t live on planet Reality.

    Yep, as we have both written before, our congress is Pat Buchanan’s Israeli occupied territory – bribed and/or blackmailed to subservience to the Jewish cabal. I don’t know why the people of Arizona keep reelecting McCain – it makes one suspect that the voting system is rigged as many have claimed.

    If we do end up attacking Iran, it is over for us. The only solace I would take from such an eventuality is that the US would still exist (however maimed), while there would no longer be an Israel. A nuclear attack on Iran would do severe damage (from the planes that made it through their S-300 defenses), but they would still survive in their mountainous terrain, while Dimona would go up in a mushroom cloud under the hail of (conventional) Iranian (and Hezbollah) rockets and Tel Aviv would be no more than a pulsating glowing pile in satellite photos. Iranian swarm boats would destroy our fleet in the Persian Gulf, blocking all commercial shipments, and bring world economy to a complete stop. You can bet that Iran won’t be alone in retaliating – Syria, Lebanon, and perhaps Turkey would join the fray – and I can’t quite see Putin sitting still as his bases in the ME are attacked by US/Israel. In this WW3, I am not confident any of our European allies would be on our side as their own economies will be obliterated along with ours. Where would China stand in this conflict? Probably not on the sidelines waiting for it to be over, as they need the oil that the ME and Russia provide. Russia and China are both nuclear nations. A nuclear attack by Israel would have a swift retaliation. How about nuclear Pakistan?

    But, I don’t see that happening. No matter how out of touch with reality our congress is, attacking Iran would be a bridge too far. Despite the continuous bleating of our jewish media that Iran has nukes, nobody in the world believes them – not the IAEA, not our European allies, and not even our somnambulant citizenry at home. We have not seen war on our soil within our parents’, lifetime or our own, but we have seen economic despair in that time span, and the one that would follow the above events would be unlike any that anyone has ever seen before.

    Hungry citizenry kills kings and topples kingdoms. Our congress may be stupid, but they are not suicidal.

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  22. @macilrae
    A pretty insightful response and, based on what we've been seeing from Trump, I have also discarded my original hope that he might have a 'deep' strategy behind all that clowning. More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad - more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. And that is good for us all and especially for ordinary Americans whose infrastructure at home is now so degraded.

    Mr Shamir says:


    Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable.
     
    This is the 'wild card' - unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear - so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.

    This is the ‘wild card’ – unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear – so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.

    As I have written above, this is very unlikely.

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    • Replies: @macilrae
    An air attack, ostensibly by the US, on strategic targets in Iran would provoke retaliation against the US bases in the region and, very probably, against targets in Israel. Israel, having already made it clear it was not involved; that this was therefore an unprovoked attack, would most likely respond with nukes. Iran would have been warned of this outcome by Israel well ahead of hostilities.

    As to the final events and whether Russia would step in (unlikely in my opinion) then possibly your picturesque ending might come to pass.

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  23. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Israel Shamir, thank you Sir for your insight …I have enjoyed every paragraph.
    anonymous

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  24. @schmenz
    I must agree with you that Mr Trump shows no signs of strategic thinking in whatever he has been doing. And just what has he been doing, other than confusing everyone in the world ? One thing he apparently is not confusing about is his disgusting subservience to Israel. If that is the be-all and end-all of his "strategy" then I find absolutely no hope for him. Or for us.

    I agree. No matter how bad Trump is, Hillary would be a certainty to take us to war with Iran. Let’s see if Uranium One finally nails her.

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  25. Jan2087 says:
    @macilrae
    A pretty insightful response and, based on what we've been seeing from Trump, I have also discarded my original hope that he might have a 'deep' strategy behind all that clowning. More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad - more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. And that is good for us all and especially for ordinary Americans whose infrastructure at home is now so degraded.

    Mr Shamir says:


    Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable.
     
    This is the 'wild card' - unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear - so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.

    Mr Shamir is right on every single point in this article.

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  26. anarchyst says:

    It is easy to see the pervasiveness of Israel’s Mossad (if one knows where to look), arguably the most effective spy agency on the planet, please read “By Way of Deception” by Viktor Ostrowsky. From the Lavon affair (a “false flag” operation designed to draw the USA into a war with Egypt by making it appear that Arabs bombed the U S interests section–a planted bomb exploded prematurely, exposing this as a Israeli planned and executed “incident”) to the deliberate attack on the USS Liberty (NOT “misidentification”, but another attempt to draw the USA into a war with Egypt and to hide the deliberate massacre of civilians in an Egyptian city, Deir Yassin), to Jonathon Pollard and NSA spying utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records), you will find that Israel looks out for Israel’s interests ONLY. Normally, there is nothing wrong with a country looking out after it’s own interests, BUT Israel has a nasty habit of spying (and setting up) it’s “friends”.

    Who the hell died and appointed Israel the “master” of the middle east?? Iran (and all other middle-eastern countries) KNOWS that any nuclear “discharge” would affect the whole middle east . . . Any country that possesses nukes is not stupid . . . Israel has over a hundred nukes, manufactured with stolen American classified technology, refuses inspections of its nuclear facilities and is, in general, a “pain in the ass” to the rest of the world, along with (blackmailed) “big brother” United States of America.

    It is no secret that the U S State Department is infested with dual-nationality Israeli-Americans who form (and foment) the bulk of our neocon “foreign policy” straight from Tel Aviv. In fact there are 40 or so congressmen and senators with dual-nationality “ties” to Israel.

    Most people are unaware that Israel holds a “Damocles sword” over the world. Any attack on Israel will be met with a nuclear device being detonated in a city of Israel’s choosing. Israel calls this the “Samson option” and is very real.

    Israel refuses to abide by IAEA guidelines concerning its nukes as its nukes are already distributed around the world. Israel would not be able to produce all of them as most of them are not in Israel, proper. No delivery systems are needed as Israel’s nukes are already “in place”. Look for another “false flag” operation with the blame being put on Iran. You can bet that some Iranian passports will be found in the rubble.

    Talk about total INSANITY; the so-called “Samson Option” is it.

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    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records),
     
    I think you have hit the nail on the head. Amdocs allows access to the phone records of our congress critters and is the key to blackmailing them. We all know what paragons of virtue our reps are, so this must be a treasure trove for such nefarious purposes. Evidence of pedophilia, for instance, would propel even a president to attacking an innocent country because the cabal coerced him to do so.
    , @anon
    There was article in LA Times in 2002 by a faculty from Louisiana State University at the department of communication . The professor openly threatened of targeting American and European cities if Israel ever did go down
    But that going down is not existential it is presented as existential when he basically was portraying any adjustment any curtailment and negotiation with neighbors ( from Israel ) as nothing but ‘going down’
    , @NoseytheDuke
    The book that you cited contains the quote, "The US is Israel's friend but Israel is not the US' friend".
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  27. @anarchyst
    It is easy to see the pervasiveness of Israel’s Mossad (if one knows where to look), arguably the most effective spy agency on the planet, please read “By Way of Deception” by Viktor Ostrowsky. From the Lavon affair (a “false flag” operation designed to draw the USA into a war with Egypt by making it appear that Arabs bombed the U S interests section–a planted bomb exploded prematurely, exposing this as a Israeli planned and executed “incident”) to the deliberate attack on the USS Liberty (NOT “misidentification”, but another attempt to draw the USA into a war with Egypt and to hide the deliberate massacre of civilians in an Egyptian city, Deir Yassin), to Jonathon Pollard and NSA spying utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records), you will find that Israel looks out for Israel’s interests ONLY. Normally, there is nothing wrong with a country looking out after it’s own interests, BUT Israel has a nasty habit of spying (and setting up) it’s “friends”.

    Who the hell died and appointed Israel the “master” of the middle east?? Iran (and all other middle-eastern countries) KNOWS that any nuclear “discharge” would affect the whole middle east . . . Any country that possesses nukes is not stupid . . . Israel has over a hundred nukes, manufactured with stolen American classified technology, refuses inspections of its nuclear facilities and is, in general, a “pain in the ass” to the rest of the world, along with (blackmailed) “big brother” United States of America.

    It is no secret that the U S State Department is infested with dual-nationality Israeli-Americans who form (and foment) the bulk of our neocon “foreign policy" straight from Tel Aviv. In fact there are 40 or so congressmen and senators with dual-nationality "ties" to Israel.

    Most people are unaware that Israel holds a “Damocles sword” over the world. Any attack on Israel will be met with a nuclear device being detonated in a city of Israel’s choosing. Israel calls this the “Samson option” and is very real.

    Israel refuses to abide by IAEA guidelines concerning its nukes as its nukes are already distributed around the world. Israel would not be able to produce all of them as most of them are not in Israel, proper. No delivery systems are needed as Israel’s nukes are already “in place”. Look for another “false flag” operation with the blame being put on Iran. You can bet that some Iranian passports will be found in the rubble.

    Talk about total INSANITY; the so-called “Samson Option” is it.

    utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records),

    I think you have hit the nail on the head. Amdocs allows access to the phone records of our congress critters and is the key to blackmailing them. We all know what paragons of virtue our reps are, so this must be a treasure trove for such nefarious purposes. Evidence of pedophilia, for instance, would propel even a president to attacking an innocent country because the cabal coerced him to do so.

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  28. Avery says:
    @wayfarer
    Sharing, is a difficult social skill to learn.

    But even a spoiled trust-fund kid like Israel, may learn to share with other kids in the Middle East sandbox, someday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2SARytxgNc
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8p8yhS4Qys

    Hannity: “These kids that are funded by Hamas and Hezbollah…they grow up hating….”

    Israeli kids on the other hand grow up ‘with love’ : it says right there on the bomb shell that the lovely little Israeli girls wrote.

    Sick world.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wally
    "Sick world"?

    No, sick Jews.

    sraeli Army T-Shirts Mock Gaza Murders
    https://socioecohistory.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/israel_racism__genocide_cartoon.jpg

    "Two teenage Israeli girls carrying a placard in Hebrew reading: "Hating Arabs is not racism, it's values."
    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02962/jewish-girls_2962213c.jpg

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  29. macilrae says:
    @Cloak And Dagger

    This is the ‘wild card’ – unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear – so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.
     
    As I have written above, this is very unlikely.

    An air attack, ostensibly by the US, on strategic targets in Iran would provoke retaliation against the US bases in the region and, very probably, against targets in Israel. Israel, having already made it clear it was not involved; that this was therefore an unprovoked attack, would most likely respond with nukes. Iran would have been warned of this outcome by Israel well ahead of hostilities.

    As to the final events and whether Russia would step in (unlikely in my opinion) then possibly your picturesque ending might come to pass.

    Read More
    • Replies: @renfro
    I don't think Russia would let the Bolshevik Jews take Iran down......could be wrong, but history has given Russia a long long memory.
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  30. renfro says:
    @macilrae
    An air attack, ostensibly by the US, on strategic targets in Iran would provoke retaliation against the US bases in the region and, very probably, against targets in Israel. Israel, having already made it clear it was not involved; that this was therefore an unprovoked attack, would most likely respond with nukes. Iran would have been warned of this outcome by Israel well ahead of hostilities.

    As to the final events and whether Russia would step in (unlikely in my opinion) then possibly your picturesque ending might come to pass.

    I don’t think Russia would let the Bolshevik Jews take Iran down……could be wrong, but history has given Russia a long long memory.

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  31. utu says:
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  32. joe webb says:

    WW3 comrade. Coming up!

    You trust a communist and a Russian and a genetic jew to give you objectivity?

    garbage in and garbage flout.

    Joe Webb

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  33. bjondo says:

    not only is trump much better than the diseased,cackling witch but also much better than any of the repub turds he dispatched to the pig manure pond

    trump will surprise even more

    on the positive side

    the swamp is being drained: hillary and jeb (and the other 15 turds) the demos and repubs and hollywood (going down fast) are toothless; soros is losing at every effort; the jew stream media is huff and puff and insanity; mueller will get who (besides himself and comey)? not trump.

    change is happening. just no one seems to see.

    Read More
    • Replies: @druid
    I agree except for your thought that Trump will surprise us for the better. Wishful thinking and dreaming! He is a weak dunce with a big mouth!
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  34. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @anarchyst
    It is easy to see the pervasiveness of Israel’s Mossad (if one knows where to look), arguably the most effective spy agency on the planet, please read “By Way of Deception” by Viktor Ostrowsky. From the Lavon affair (a “false flag” operation designed to draw the USA into a war with Egypt by making it appear that Arabs bombed the U S interests section–a planted bomb exploded prematurely, exposing this as a Israeli planned and executed “incident”) to the deliberate attack on the USS Liberty (NOT “misidentification”, but another attempt to draw the USA into a war with Egypt and to hide the deliberate massacre of civilians in an Egyptian city, Deir Yassin), to Jonathon Pollard and NSA spying utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records), you will find that Israel looks out for Israel’s interests ONLY. Normally, there is nothing wrong with a country looking out after it’s own interests, BUT Israel has a nasty habit of spying (and setting up) it’s “friends”.

    Who the hell died and appointed Israel the “master” of the middle east?? Iran (and all other middle-eastern countries) KNOWS that any nuclear “discharge” would affect the whole middle east . . . Any country that possesses nukes is not stupid . . . Israel has over a hundred nukes, manufactured with stolen American classified technology, refuses inspections of its nuclear facilities and is, in general, a “pain in the ass” to the rest of the world, along with (blackmailed) “big brother” United States of America.

    It is no secret that the U S State Department is infested with dual-nationality Israeli-Americans who form (and foment) the bulk of our neocon “foreign policy" straight from Tel Aviv. In fact there are 40 or so congressmen and senators with dual-nationality "ties" to Israel.

    Most people are unaware that Israel holds a “Damocles sword” over the world. Any attack on Israel will be met with a nuclear device being detonated in a city of Israel’s choosing. Israel calls this the “Samson option” and is very real.

    Israel refuses to abide by IAEA guidelines concerning its nukes as its nukes are already distributed around the world. Israel would not be able to produce all of them as most of them are not in Israel, proper. No delivery systems are needed as Israel’s nukes are already “in place”. Look for another “false flag” operation with the blame being put on Iran. You can bet that some Iranian passports will be found in the rubble.

    Talk about total INSANITY; the so-called “Samson Option” is it.

    There was article in LA Times in 2002 by a faculty from Louisiana State University at the department of communication . The professor openly threatened of targeting American and European cities if Israel ever did go down
    But that going down is not existential it is presented as existential when he basically was portraying any adjustment any curtailment and negotiation with neighbors ( from Israel ) as nothing but ‘going down’

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
    In 2003, a military historian, Martin van Creveld, thought that the Al-Aqsa Intifada then in progress threatened Israel's existence.[30] Van Creveld was quoted in David Hirst's The Gun and the Olive Branch (2003) as saying:

    We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.[31]

     

    However, it was unlikely Israel could have even targeted Europe as according to Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Yaakov, who was the mastermind behind the "Samson Option", Israel did not yet have other measures like bombs or missiles to carry the nuclear payload.
     
    , @renfro
    Remember this...

    Atlanta Jewish Times editor resigns over call to assassinate Obama ...

    https://www.haaretz.com/atlanta-jewish-times-editor-resigns-over-call-to-assassinate-o...

    Jan 24, 2012 - Atlanta Jewish Times Editor Resigns Over Call to Assassinate Obama ... who suggested Israel should assassinate U.S. President Barack Obama, has ... "give the go-ahead for U.S.-based Mossad agents to take out a president ...
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  35. Wally says:
    @Michael Kenny
    The author's standard pro-Putin line. Putin is in Syria to stay, the beauty of his mighty and irrestible weapons is dazzling, Turkey is practically out of NATO and is on the point of allowing Putin to annex the Straits, Israel is going to have to capitilate to Putin, the Saudis already have, Trump is capitulating to Putin but, oh gosh, if the nasties in Congress didn't keep trying to stop him, he might stop trying to capitulate. If the author hadn't laid it on so thick, it might have been mildly credible. As it is, it sounds like total panic in the Putin camp! The "problem" is how does any of this benefit Putin? He's irreversibly bogged down in Syria just as the Soviets were in Afghanistan. He has installed a puppet regime and he is now forced to prop up that regime for all time and against all comers. The US has the initiative. It can re-launch the war in Syria anytime it wants. It can attack Iran anytime it wants. Putin is forced to sit and wait to see what the US does and then react to it. This is why I keep saying that the logical next step for Putin's supporters is to try to install a pro-Putin stooge in Israel in place of Netanyahu. On past performance, that will probably blow up in their faces too!

    Hillary has spoken.

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  36. druid says:
    @Grandpa Charlie

    Actually, Trump is doing the thankless job of soft-landing the US Empire. .....

    Trump is an expert in bankruptcies, and he was supposed to downsize and soft-land the ship in the best (for Americans) terms.

    This is what he is doing, helped by the Congress and the mainstream media. Yes, you’ve heard it right. By limiting the manoeuvrability of the US President, by their open animosity to his proposals they speed up the landing. Perhaps it won’t be as soft as it would be in dreams, but without the Establishment’s resistance, Trump might be tempted to keep the ship flying.

    The Middle East has been a place of huge American involvement for many years, and here – I write this after coming to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Moscow – the feeling of impending US withdrawal is particularly strong. Many years ago, the British Empire contracted and withdrew from many of its colonies and possessions; now it the US turn.

    ... seems that the US will be able to leave the volatile region in relative peace
     
    Now there's optimism, clothed in realism! But how will Trump and his generals be able to take credit for peace that falls out of the sky like rain with no victory to celebrate? And doesn't this all pose an existential threat to USA's "defense industry"? But that's okay, I'm willing to believe it!

    I really think the US involvement and unequivocal support of Israel is the main reason it has fallen so far! The US has been manipulated to spend it’s resources and goodwill for the “chosen” to their detriment. It has happened before in every place where the “chosen” wielded financial and thus political power!

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  37. Wally says: • Website
    @Avery
    Hannity: "These kids that are funded by Hamas and Hezbollah...they grow up hating...."

    Israeli kids on the other hand grow up 'with love' : it says right there on the bomb shell that the lovely little Israeli girls wrote.

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7760/1663/1600/more%20girls%20signing%20bombs.2.jpg


    Sick world.

    “Sick world”?

    No, sick Jews.

    sraeli Army T-Shirts Mock Gaza Murders
    “Two teenage Israeli girls carrying a placard in Hebrew reading: “Hating Arabs is not racism, it’s values.”

    Read More
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  38. utu says:
    @anon
    There was article in LA Times in 2002 by a faculty from Louisiana State University at the department of communication . The professor openly threatened of targeting American and European cities if Israel ever did go down
    But that going down is not existential it is presented as existential when he basically was portraying any adjustment any curtailment and negotiation with neighbors ( from Israel ) as nothing but ‘going down’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
    In 2003, a military historian, Martin van Creveld, thought that the Al-Aqsa Intifada then in progress threatened Israel’s existence.[30] Van Creveld was quoted in David Hirst’s The Gun and the Olive Branch (2003) as saying:

    We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: ‘Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.’ I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.[31]

    However, it was unlikely Israel could have even targeted Europe as according to Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Yaakov, who was the mastermind behind the “Samson Option”, Israel did not yet have other measures like bombs or missiles to carry the nuclear payload.

    Read More
    • Replies: @renfro
    Monkeys beating their chest pretending to be Silverbacks.


    Bulletin of Atomic Scientist
    volume 73 2017

    Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

    Israel

    Israel is a wild card because of the opacity of its nuclear weapons program. Like other nuclear-armed states, however, Israel has been modernizing its arsenal and probably also its storage facilities. Israel’s nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances but are estimated to include 80–85 warheads.16
    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


    Abstract

    Israel Capabilities

    Although the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel is a nuclear-armed state—and has been so for nearly half a century. The basis for this conclusion has been strengthened significantly since our previous estimate in 2002, particularly thanks to new documents obtained by scholars under the US Freedom of Information Act and other openly available sources.

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
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  39. druid says:
    @bjondo
    not only is trump much better than the diseased,cackling witch but also much better than any of the repub turds he dispatched to the pig manure pond

    trump will surprise even more

    on the positive side

    the swamp is being drained: hillary and jeb (and the other 15 turds) the demos and repubs and hollywood (going down fast) are toothless; soros is losing at every effort; the jew stream media is huff and puff and insanity; mueller will get who (besides himself and comey)? not trump.

    change is happening. just no one seems to see.

    I agree except for your thought that Trump will surprise us for the better. Wishful thinking and dreaming! He is a weak dunce with a big mouth!

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  40. renfro says:
    @anon
    There was article in LA Times in 2002 by a faculty from Louisiana State University at the department of communication . The professor openly threatened of targeting American and European cities if Israel ever did go down
    But that going down is not existential it is presented as existential when he basically was portraying any adjustment any curtailment and negotiation with neighbors ( from Israel ) as nothing but ‘going down’

    Remember this…

    Atlanta Jewish Times editor resigns over call to assassinate Obama …

    https://www.haaretz.com/atlanta-jewish-times-editor-resigns-over-call-to-assassinate-o…

    Jan 24, 2012 – Atlanta Jewish Times Editor Resigns Over Call to Assassinate Obama … who suggested Israel should assassinate U.S. President Barack Obama, has … “give the go-ahead for U.S.-based Mossad agents to take out a president …

    Read More
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  41. renfro says:

    https://www.niacouncil.org/5-reasons-trump-moving-towards-war-iran/

    5 Reasons Why Trump Is Moving Towards War With Iran
    October 12 2017

    2. Trump is planning to take on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
    Decertification is only half the story. Trump also plans to significantly escalate tensions with Iran in the region, including taking a measure that both the Bush and Obama administrations rejected: Designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Make no mistake, the IRGC is far from an army of saints. It is responsible for much of the repression against the population inside of Iran and it fought the U.S. military indirectly in Iraq through Shia militias. But it has also been one of the most critical fighting forces against ISIS.
    In real terms, the designation does not add much to the pressure the U.S. already is or can impose on the IRGC. But it ratchets things up in a very dangerous way without any clear benefits to the United States. The drawbacks, however, are crystal clear. IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari issued a stern warning last week: “If the news is correct about the stupidity of the American government in considering the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, then the Revolutionary Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State [ISIS] all around the world.” If the IRGC acts on its warning and targets U.S. troops – and there are 10,000 such targets in Iraq – we will only be a few steps away from war

    5. Trump’s donors are obsessed with starting war with Iran
    Some have suggested that Trump is pursuing the decertification of the Iran deal ― in spite of the near consensus advice of his top advisors to not go down this path – as a result of pressure from his base. But there is no evidence that his base cares much about this issue. Rather, as Eli Clifton meticulously had documented, the most dedicated force behind Trump’s obsession with killing the Iran deal is not his base, but a tiny group of top Republican donors. “A small number of his biggest campaign and legal defense donors have made extreme comments about Iran and, in at least one case, advocated for the use of a nuclear weapon against the Islamic Republic,” Clifton wrote last month.
    The billionaire Home Depot founder Bernard Marcus, for instance, has given Trump $101,700 to help pay Trump and Donald Trump Jr.’s legal fees following the probe into Russian election interference. Hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer is another major donor to pro-war groups in Washington who Trump has relied upon for financial support. The most famous billionaire donor, of course, is Sheldon Adelson who has contributed $35 million to pro-Trump Super PAC Future 45. All of these donors have pushed for war with Iran, though only Adelson has gone as far as to suggest the US should strike Iran with nuclear weapons as a negotiating tactic.

    About Author
    Trita ParsiDr. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council and an expert on US-Iranian relations, Iranian foreign politics, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. Parsi is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. He is an award-wining author of two books, Treacherous Alliance – The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US (Yale University Press, 2007) and A Single Roll of the Dice – Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press, 2012). Treacherous Alliance won the Council of Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Award in 2008 (Silver medallion). A Single Roll of the Dice was selected as The Best Book on The Middle East in 2012 by Foreign Affairs. Parsi currently teaches at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, DC.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    Apparently you don't know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of 'green', which is a CIA backed 'color revolution'. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called 'New Yorki Circle" by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them 'reformers'.

    No Iranian recognizes or supports the CIA backed "the National Iranian American Council" that Parsi leads. They are better to stay abroad till are in their graves.

    The CIA stooge has close relation with zionist lobby, J street, and has contributed more than $10000 to this zionist circle who are pro Israel, pro economic sanctions of Iran, and eventually destruction of Iran for so a long time. This stooge can be viewed as another Karzai, or Ghani in Afghanistan, CIA assets, where all are US CITIZENS.
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  42. So depressing how US “leaders” sold their people down the river for those vile filthy Jews.

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  43. renfro says:
    @utu

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
    In 2003, a military historian, Martin van Creveld, thought that the Al-Aqsa Intifada then in progress threatened Israel's existence.[30] Van Creveld was quoted in David Hirst's The Gun and the Olive Branch (2003) as saying:

    We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.[31]

     

    However, it was unlikely Israel could have even targeted Europe as according to Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Yaakov, who was the mastermind behind the "Samson Option", Israel did not yet have other measures like bombs or missiles to carry the nuclear payload.
     

    Monkeys beating their chest pretending to be Silverbacks.

    Bulletin of Atomic Scientist
    volume 73 2017

    Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

    Israel

    Israel is a wild card because of the opacity of its nuclear weapons program. Like other nuclear-armed states, however, Israel has been modernizing its arsenal and probably also its storage facilities. Israel’s nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances but are estimated to include 80–85 warheads.16
    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

    Abstract

    Israel Capabilities

    Although the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel is a nuclear-armed state—and has been so for nearly half a century. The basis for this conclusion has been strengthened significantly since our previous estimate in 2002, particularly thanks to new documents obtained by scholars under the US Freedom of Information Act and other openly available sources.

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    Is it 80?, 200?, 400? - we do not know.

    Colin Powell in March 2015: “The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200 [nuclear weapons], all targeted on Tehran, and we have thousands.”

    Hans M. Kristensen from FAS that you have linked above commented on Powell's email:

    https://thebulletin.org/does-israel-really-have-200-nuclear-weapons-or-was-colin-powell-exaggerating9896
    As Kristensen reminded me in an email today, “Powell’s number is more than double the number of warheads the US Defense Intelligence Agency estimated Israel had in 1999, and projected they would have in 2020. Although we can’t know for sure, Powell’s number seems to have been plucked from the public debate rather than reflecting an official classified intelligence estimate.” Past estimates of 200 warheads have been based on a 1987 assessment that Israel, at that time, could have produced sufficient fissile material to build 100 to 200 warheads. “That number quickly became the most frequently used estimate,” says Kristensen. “But it was only based on a translation of fissile material into warheads, and did not incorporate other important variables such as the number of Israeli nuclear-capable delivery vehicles and Israeli nuclear strategy.”
     
    “But it was only based on a translation of fissile material into warheads, and did not incorporate other important variables such as the number of Israeli nuclear-capable delivery vehicles and Israeli nuclear strategy.” - But the estimate of 80 is based on what?

    Whatever is the number and the fact that the number is larger than zero we can blame on the assassins(s) from Dallas, November 22, 1963 and the French.
    , @Cloak And Dagger

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.
     
    One thing to keep in mind - nuclear weapons rot over time and have to be upgraded periodically, as we are about to do. Israel stole that stuff back in the 60's and 70's. Some of that stuff is probably no longer safe for handling - but they still have enough to do serious damage.
    , @survey-of-disinfo
    US tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_the_United_States

    USSR/Russian tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_the_Soviet_Union

    British tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_tests_in_Australia

    French tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_France

    Chinese tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_China

    Indian tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India

    Pakistani tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_Pakistan

    North Korean tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test

    South Africa 'incident': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident

    Israeli tests: n/a

    "Israel has nuclear weapons, with all activity in a single installation, contrary to all other nations that had to build numerous massive, decentralized, facilities all over to achieve their nuclear capability. This is because we are just special."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/1463230/Vanunu-claims-he-asked-Mossad-honey-trap-if-she-was-a-spy.html

    Ya'll believe anything, don't ya?
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  44. carlos524 says:

    Didn’t the US backed SDF & Kurds just take Syria`s largest oil fields at the weekend? Something tells me they don’t plan to give it back.

    Just enough to run a Kurdish state I think out of northern Syria? any Assad attack would be just the pretext for a US major bombing campaign Am I right here?

    Read More
    • Replies: @MEexpert
    Yes you are.
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  45. @schmenz
    I must agree with you that Mr Trump shows no signs of strategic thinking in whatever he has been doing. And just what has he been doing, other than confusing everyone in the world ? One thing he apparently is not confusing about is his disgusting subservience to Israel. If that is the be-all and end-all of his "strategy" then I find absolutely no hope for him. Or for us.

    Maybe Trump is the Being There President. As long as the roots are not severed, all is well and all will be well in the garden. I like to watch.

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    • LOL: utu, geokat62
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  46. Jake says:

    Shamir’s last sentence is his hope. It is not likely. The US Elites are culturally the WASP Elites. And they are tied at the hip to Israel. The only reason the UK Elites backed gently out of the Middle East is that they knew the US was taking over, meaning – WASP culture would still rule. The US has no other WASPs to hand it to.

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  47. utu says:
    @renfro
    Monkeys beating their chest pretending to be Silverbacks.


    Bulletin of Atomic Scientist
    volume 73 2017

    Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

    Israel

    Israel is a wild card because of the opacity of its nuclear weapons program. Like other nuclear-armed states, however, Israel has been modernizing its arsenal and probably also its storage facilities. Israel’s nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances but are estimated to include 80–85 warheads.16
    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


    Abstract

    Israel Capabilities

    Although the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel is a nuclear-armed state—and has been so for nearly half a century. The basis for this conclusion has been strengthened significantly since our previous estimate in 2002, particularly thanks to new documents obtained by scholars under the US Freedom of Information Act and other openly available sources.

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

    Is it 80?, 200?, 400? – we do not know.

    Colin Powell in March 2015: “The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200 [nuclear weapons], all targeted on Tehran, and we have thousands.”

    Hans M. Kristensen from FAS that you have linked above commented on Powell’s email:

    https://thebulletin.org/does-israel-really-have-200-nuclear-weapons-or-was-colin-powell-exaggerating9896
    As Kristensen reminded me in an email today, “Powell’s number is more than double the number of warheads the US Defense Intelligence Agency estimated Israel had in 1999, and projected they would have in 2020. Although we can’t know for sure, Powell’s number seems to have been plucked from the public debate rather than reflecting an official classified intelligence estimate.” Past estimates of 200 warheads have been based on a 1987 assessment that Israel, at that time, could have produced sufficient fissile material to build 100 to 200 warheads. “That number quickly became the most frequently used estimate,” says Kristensen. “But it was only based on a translation of fissile material into warheads, and did not incorporate other important variables such as the number of Israeli nuclear-capable delivery vehicles and Israeli nuclear strategy.”

    “But it was only based on a translation of fissile material into warheads, and did not incorporate other important variables such as the number of Israeli nuclear-capable delivery vehicles and Israeli nuclear strategy.” – But the estimate of 80 is based on what?

    Whatever is the number and the fact that the number is larger than zero we can blame on the assassins(s) from Dallas, November 22, 1963 and the French.

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  48. nsa says:

    The fatalistic krauts supplied the Izzies with long range electric submarines so as to extend the Samson Option to the US as well as Europe. The always practical Russkies in turn have threatened a Reverse Samson Option….nukes on Tel Aviv and Joorusalem if Mama Russia is nuke attacked by anyone……their assumption being the conniving jooies had a hand in it. It is our business to know these things here in Ft. Meade.

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  49. pogohere says: • Website
    @macilrae
    A pretty insightful response and, based on what we've been seeing from Trump, I have also discarded my original hope that he might have a 'deep' strategy behind all that clowning. More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad - more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. And that is good for us all and especially for ordinary Americans whose infrastructure at home is now so degraded.

    Mr Shamir says:


    Trump still has the option of war with Iran, and it is not impossible. Then the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable.
     
    This is the 'wild card' - unlikely I think because of the mortal fear of the Israelis of Iranian rockets but if there is such an attack, the sequal will almost surely be nuclear - so Mr Shamir is right: the ME will become uninhabitable.

    “More likely the degradation of the office of president (and the exposure to all of its actual impotence) will itself have the result of hastening the decline of American influence abroad – more rapidly than would have been the case under Hillary. ”

    I agree, but would put it this way: Trump is the president US culture (too hifalutin a word, but it’ll do) produced. He has just the right galloping narcissim, egotism and execrable taste that one should expect of the “leader” who best represents the final result of the American century. I believe this explains why so many people freaked out upon his election. When they looked at the mirror he is they damn near died of embarrassment and humiliation at the image that reflected back to them their ersatz education: the triumph of an illusory reality created by the manipulators of virtually all American media for the past 100+ years (see Adam Curtis’s “Century of the Self”), that creamy, sweet, soft, nougatty Brave New World coating over a hard Orwellian core created by the manipulators of virtually all American media.

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  50. @renfro
    Monkeys beating their chest pretending to be Silverbacks.


    Bulletin of Atomic Scientist
    volume 73 2017

    Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

    Israel

    Israel is a wild card because of the opacity of its nuclear weapons program. Like other nuclear-armed states, however, Israel has been modernizing its arsenal and probably also its storage facilities. Israel’s nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances but are estimated to include 80–85 warheads.16
    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


    Abstract

    Israel Capabilities

    Although the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel is a nuclear-armed state—and has been so for nearly half a century. The basis for this conclusion has been strengthened significantly since our previous estimate in 2002, particularly thanks to new documents obtained by scholars under the US Freedom of Information Act and other openly available sources.

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    One thing to keep in mind – nuclear weapons rot over time and have to be upgraded periodically, as we are about to do. Israel stole that stuff back in the 60′s and 70′s. Some of that stuff is probably no longer safe for handling – but they still have enough to do serious damage.

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    • Replies: @JOHN CHUCKMAN
    Jimmy Carter, someone who should know, has told us a while back.

    They have the equivalent of 150 nuclear weapons in fissile material.

    Something like 80 or so actual assembled bombs and warheads exist.

    They appear to be expanding their reach, too, with the small fleet of German submarines they have been buying from Ms Merkel at knock-down prices.

    Some or all of these relatively small diesel-electric boats are modified to carry a short-range missile with a nuclear warhead.

    Israel's current missiles can pretty well reach every capital of Europe, and some Israelis have made sure Europeans understand this, Martin Creveld for one.

    Thus, on a smaller scale, Israel has a nuclear triad, a ridiculous situation for a country with the population of Ecuador.

    And it clearly threatens the entire Middle East and somewhat beyond.

    Their reckless behavior in so many things - as current bombings in Syria - make them unsuited to have this arsenal, perhaps even less than North Korea, a country which was devastated by American bombing in the 1950s. An American general bragged that twenty percent of all North Koreans were wiped out. They do have something to fear.

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  51. MEexpert says:
    @carlos524
    Didn't the US backed SDF & Kurds just take Syria`s largest oil fields at the weekend? Something tells me they don't plan to give it back.

    Just enough to run a Kurdish state I think out of northern Syria? any Assad attack would be just the pretext for a US major bombing campaign Am I right here?

    Yes you are.

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  52. @anarchyst
    It is easy to see the pervasiveness of Israel’s Mossad (if one knows where to look), arguably the most effective spy agency on the planet, please read “By Way of Deception” by Viktor Ostrowsky. From the Lavon affair (a “false flag” operation designed to draw the USA into a war with Egypt by making it appear that Arabs bombed the U S interests section–a planted bomb exploded prematurely, exposing this as a Israeli planned and executed “incident”) to the deliberate attack on the USS Liberty (NOT “misidentification”, but another attempt to draw the USA into a war with Egypt and to hide the deliberate massacre of civilians in an Egyptian city, Deir Yassin), to Jonathon Pollard and NSA spying utilizing a company named Amdocs (which handles all US telephone billing records), you will find that Israel looks out for Israel’s interests ONLY. Normally, there is nothing wrong with a country looking out after it’s own interests, BUT Israel has a nasty habit of spying (and setting up) it’s “friends”.

    Who the hell died and appointed Israel the “master” of the middle east?? Iran (and all other middle-eastern countries) KNOWS that any nuclear “discharge” would affect the whole middle east . . . Any country that possesses nukes is not stupid . . . Israel has over a hundred nukes, manufactured with stolen American classified technology, refuses inspections of its nuclear facilities and is, in general, a “pain in the ass” to the rest of the world, along with (blackmailed) “big brother” United States of America.

    It is no secret that the U S State Department is infested with dual-nationality Israeli-Americans who form (and foment) the bulk of our neocon “foreign policy" straight from Tel Aviv. In fact there are 40 or so congressmen and senators with dual-nationality "ties" to Israel.

    Most people are unaware that Israel holds a “Damocles sword” over the world. Any attack on Israel will be met with a nuclear device being detonated in a city of Israel’s choosing. Israel calls this the “Samson option” and is very real.

    Israel refuses to abide by IAEA guidelines concerning its nukes as its nukes are already distributed around the world. Israel would not be able to produce all of them as most of them are not in Israel, proper. No delivery systems are needed as Israel’s nukes are already “in place”. Look for another “false flag” operation with the blame being put on Iran. You can bet that some Iranian passports will be found in the rubble.

    Talk about total INSANITY; the so-called “Samson Option” is it.

    The book that you cited contains the quote, “The US is Israel’s friend but Israel is not the US’ friend”.

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  53. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @renfro
    https://www.niacouncil.org/5-reasons-trump-moving-towards-war-iran/

    5 Reasons Why Trump Is Moving Towards War With Iran
    October 12 2017

    2. Trump is planning to take on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
    Decertification is only half the story. Trump also plans to significantly escalate tensions with Iran in the region, including taking a measure that both the Bush and Obama administrations rejected: Designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Make no mistake, the IRGC is far from an army of saints. It is responsible for much of the repression against the population inside of Iran and it fought the U.S. military indirectly in Iraq through Shia militias. But it has also been one of the most critical fighting forces against ISIS.
    In real terms, the designation does not add much to the pressure the U.S. already is or can impose on the IRGC. But it ratchets things up in a very dangerous way without any clear benefits to the United States. The drawbacks, however, are crystal clear. IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari issued a stern warning last week: “If the news is correct about the stupidity of the American government in considering the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, then the Revolutionary Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State [ISIS] all around the world.” If the IRGC acts on its warning and targets U.S. troops – and there are 10,000 such targets in Iraq – we will only be a few steps away from war

    5. Trump’s donors are obsessed with starting war with Iran
    Some have suggested that Trump is pursuing the decertification of the Iran deal ― in spite of the near consensus advice of his top advisors to not go down this path – as a result of pressure from his base. But there is no evidence that his base cares much about this issue. Rather, as Eli Clifton meticulously had documented, the most dedicated force behind Trump’s obsession with killing the Iran deal is not his base, but a tiny group of top Republican donors. “A small number of his biggest campaign and legal defense donors have made extreme comments about Iran and, in at least one case, advocated for the use of a nuclear weapon against the Islamic Republic,” Clifton wrote last month.
    The billionaire Home Depot founder Bernard Marcus, for instance, has given Trump $101,700 to help pay Trump and Donald Trump Jr.’s legal fees following the probe into Russian election interference. Hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer is another major donor to pro-war groups in Washington who Trump has relied upon for financial support. The most famous billionaire donor, of course, is Sheldon Adelson who has contributed $35 million to pro-Trump Super PAC Future 45. All of these donors have pushed for war with Iran, though only Adelson has gone as far as to suggest the US should strike Iran with nuclear weapons as a negotiating tactic.

    About Author
    Trita ParsiDr. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council and an expert on US-Iranian relations, Iranian foreign politics, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. Parsi is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. He is an award-wining author of two books, Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US (Yale University Press, 2007) and A Single Roll of the Dice - Obama's Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press, 2012). Treacherous Alliance won the Council of Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Award in 2008 (Silver medallion). A Single Roll of the Dice was selected as The Best Book on The Middle East in 2012 by Foreign Affairs. Parsi currently teaches at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, DC.

    Apparently you don’t know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of ‘green’, which is a CIA backed ‘color revolution’. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called ‘New Yorki Circle” by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them ‘reformers’.

    No Iranian recognizes or supports the CIA backed “the National Iranian American Council” that Parsi leads. They are better to stay abroad till are in their graves.

    The CIA stooge has close relation with zionist lobby, J street, and has contributed more than $10000 to this zionist circle who are pro Israel, pro economic sanctions of Iran, and eventually destruction of Iran for so a long time. This stooge can be viewed as another Karzai, or Ghani in Afghanistan, CIA assets, where all are US CITIZENS.

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    • Replies: @renfro
    '' Apparently you don’t know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of ‘green’, which is a CIA backed ‘color revolution’. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called ‘New Yorki Circle” by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them ‘reformers’.


    Can you give me some sources for that?
    Cause everything I've found indicates the opposite.

    The Jews for Israel seem to hate him......
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2009/11/trita-parsi-lobbyist-for-iran/30133/

    A fellow Iranian also seems to hate him but that fellow works for the right wing Jewish Commentary......
    ''Sohrab Ahmari faults Parsi for failing to "re-examine U.S. policy and its underlying assumptions." Instead, he writes, "Quick to ascribe irrationality and bad faith to opponents of engagement, Mr. Parsi is charitable when it comes to examining the motivations of the Iranian side." In opposition to Parsi's position, Ahmari concludes, "Mr. Obama's engagement policy failed not because of Israeli connivance or because the administration did not try hard enough. The policy failed because the Iranian regime, when confronted by its own people or by outsiders, has only one way of responding: with a truncheon."


    Another Iranian, Hassan Daioleslam also hates him BUT guess what? Hassan Daioleslam is a member of the MEK, the delisted terrorist group that wants to overthrown Iran. So he's a better bet as a CIA asset than Parsi.....if the CIA wants agents to overthrown Iran. He also attacks Parsi.

    ''Hassan Daioleslam, a U.S.-based Iranian journalist, described NIAC and Trita Parsi as “key players in the lobby enterprise of Tehran’s ayatollahs in the United States” in a 2008 article. NIAC, he wrote, “is one of the Iranian regime’s Lobby arms in the US.”

    So...
    Who Is Hassan Daioleslam?
    https://lobelog.com/who-is-hassan-daioleslam/

    ''In my last post, I noted that Hassan Daioleslam — the man at the center of the ongoing NIAC controversy — has been “said by multiple sources to be affiliated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK, or MKO) — a terrorist group (classified as such by the State Department) with close ties to the Saddam Hussein regime.”

    So the Jews and Israelis hate him and the Iranians that want to overthrow Iran hate him ...aounds like a terrible CIA asset.
    If you arent familiar with the MEK read the Lobelog article.

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  54. Al-Qaeda attacked a Syrian Arab Army position in Madinat al-Baath (map) next to the Israel occupied Golan heights. Al-Qaeda requested Israeli fire-support by launching some mortars towards empty space in the Israel occupied area. The Israeli Defense Force accepted the request and destroyed two Syrian Arab Army tanks. Two Syrian soldiers were killed. The SAA held steady and the al-Qaeda attack on its position failed.

    This was very easy to predict. Israel has supported al-Qaeda in the area since at least 2014. The al-Qaeda fire-request-by-mortar scheme has been in place for at least three years. In October 2014 the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which back then still covered the area, reported to the UN Security Council:

    On 23 June [2014], Israel targeted nine Syrian army positions with tank fire and air strikes after mortar fire from the Syrian side the previous day killed an Israeli civilian. Israel’s assessment is that most of these incidents are due to errant fire resulting from fighting in Syria. Israel said that armed opposition groups were probably responsible but that its forces fired on Syrian military positions to stress that Syria was responsible for security on its side of the ceasefire line.
    The UN observers mentioned the “black flags” the “rebels” were using. The “rebels” in that area are al-Qaeda forces. This “fire support request by mortar” scheme has been repeated again and again. The Israeli argument is an insult to logic: “The Syrian army is responsible for keeping al-Qaeda out of the area so we respond to “errant” al-Qaeda fire by destroying the Syrian army.”

    But “western” and Israeli media did and do not report or analyzed the obvious scheme. This even as this theater act gets repeated over and over again. They lie and simply report the “errant fire” nonsense even when it is clear that this is coordinated military support for al-Qaeda. For years they have hidden Israeli support for al-Qaeda and its deep involvement in the Syrian war. Witness Haaretz which only today(!) headlines: Analysis – Israel’s Slow Creep Into the Syrian Civil War. That “slow creep”, which Haaretz describes and analyzes as a new phenomenon, started at least three years ago and was neither slow nor a creep. It is full fledged support for terrorism and has been such since its beginning.

    The Wall Street Journal, also three years late, reported last week that Israel had set up a special IDF unit to advise, train, support and control al-Qaeda in the Golan area: Israel Gives Secret Aid to Syrian Rebels

    Israel even pays al-Qaeda’s salaries:

    The person familiar with Israel’s assistance confirmed that cash moves across the border but said it goes for humanitarian purposes. However, rebels interviewed said they use the cash to pay fighters’ salaries and to buy weapons and ammunition—something the Israeli military wouldn’t comment on.
    Israel wants to steal and occupy even larger parts of Syria than the parts of the Golan heights it illegally holds. It pays al-Qaeda and supports it by fire to achieve that. The main stream reporting on this is at least three years late. Why is it now starting to publish about this? Is there a new media advisory that Haaretz and the WSJ are now allowed (or required) to report on the issue? To what purpose?

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/israeli-fire-support-for-its-al-qaeda-mercenaries-started-three-years-ago.html

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  55. An interesting fantasy, but one for which there is no evidence.

    I see a man who has proved himself cowardly, both in the face of the Washington establishment and in the face of Israel and its lobby.

    Wish I were wrong, but I think that distinction belongs to the writer of the piece.

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  56. Florin N says:

    must read:

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/israeli-fire-support-for-its-al-qaeda-mercenaries-started-three-years-ago.html

    Russia simply needs to stop Israeli attacks and respond to them with AA and Cruise Missiles into Israeli bases.

    Yes the media will go crazy, and no – it doesn’t matter.

    Making the Zionists/Neocons think Jews may pay in blood for the Oded Yinon / Clean Break / Which Path to Persia stuff is what matters.

    Israel has been a terrorist state for long enough.

    bloody their noses a little and Bill Kristol might change his analysis.

    The Russians have their own ‘Never Again’ regarding the heirs of the (((Bolsheviks))) who murdered many millions of them as the world did nothing.

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  57. @Cloak And Dagger

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.
     
    One thing to keep in mind - nuclear weapons rot over time and have to be upgraded periodically, as we are about to do. Israel stole that stuff back in the 60's and 70's. Some of that stuff is probably no longer safe for handling - but they still have enough to do serious damage.

    Jimmy Carter, someone who should know, has told us a while back.

    They have the equivalent of 150 nuclear weapons in fissile material.

    Something like 80 or so actual assembled bombs and warheads exist.

    They appear to be expanding their reach, too, with the small fleet of German submarines they have been buying from Ms Merkel at knock-down prices.

    Some or all of these relatively small diesel-electric boats are modified to carry a short-range missile with a nuclear warhead.

    Israel’s current missiles can pretty well reach every capital of Europe, and some Israelis have made sure Europeans understand this, Martin Creveld for one.

    Thus, on a smaller scale, Israel has a nuclear triad, a ridiculous situation for a country with the population of Ecuador.

    And it clearly threatens the entire Middle East and somewhat beyond.

    Their reckless behavior in so many things – as current bombings in Syria – make them unsuited to have this arsenal, perhaps even less than North Korea, a country which was devastated by American bombing in the 1950s. An American general bragged that twenty percent of all North Koreans were wiped out. They do have something to fear.

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    • Replies: @renfro
    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke...Unless they really really are suicidal.
    I can also guarantee you that the pentagon has a 'war plan' on Israel just like it has for every other nuclear capable country. It has hundreds of 'what if' war scenarios.

    The question for Israel is this......Would the US let Israel use a nuke in the ME, the results of which would sink the entire economy of the oil dependent and 'interconnected' world for an indefinite period of time?

    That is the question. Which leader or US President would take the responsibility of that world economic catastrophe for the sake of the Jewish state?

    The US 'sees" everything Israel (and everyone else) does thru our satellites...they can see a silo door opening at a nuke silo. "Boomer' submarines, in Navy slang, roam the coastal waters awaiting such an event. Boomers are designed to attack large warships and tactical targets on land hence their the primary mission is nuclear deterrence. On top of that they are undetectable and can fire their missile from underwater with no need to surface. Russian subs also have this capability. You can be sure both the US and Russia are in the waters of the ME.

    So the scenario is this.....the US sees a Israeli nuke set to launch at Iran or whoever.....what does the US do?

    We might find out...if it turns out Israel really is insane.
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  58. anon says: • Disclaimer

    “British Colonial Secretary Lord Cavendish also wrote about this agreement and its result in a 1923 memorandum to the British Cabinet, stating: “The object [of the Balfour Declaration] was to enlist the sympathies on the Allied side of influential Jews and Jewish organizations all over the world… [and] it is arguable that the negotiations with the Zionists…did in fact have considerable effect in advancing the date at which the United States government intervened in the war.”Former British Prime Minister Lloyd George similarly referred to the deal, telling a British commission in 1935: “Zionist leaders gave us a definite promise that, if the Allies committed themselves to giving facilities for the establishment of a national home for the Jews in Palestine, they would do their best to rally Jewish sentiment and support throughout the world to the Allied cause. They kept their word.”[xxiv]

    Brandeis University professor and author Frank E. Manuel reported that Lloyd George had testified in 1937 “that stimulating the war effort of American Jews was one of the major motives which, during a harrowing period in the European war, actuated members of the cabinet in finally casting their votes for the Declaration.””

    https://israelpalestinenews.org/wrote-balfour-declaration-world-war-connection/

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  59. renfro says:
    @JOHN CHUCKMAN
    Jimmy Carter, someone who should know, has told us a while back.

    They have the equivalent of 150 nuclear weapons in fissile material.

    Something like 80 or so actual assembled bombs and warheads exist.

    They appear to be expanding their reach, too, with the small fleet of German submarines they have been buying from Ms Merkel at knock-down prices.

    Some or all of these relatively small diesel-electric boats are modified to carry a short-range missile with a nuclear warhead.

    Israel's current missiles can pretty well reach every capital of Europe, and some Israelis have made sure Europeans understand this, Martin Creveld for one.

    Thus, on a smaller scale, Israel has a nuclear triad, a ridiculous situation for a country with the population of Ecuador.

    And it clearly threatens the entire Middle East and somewhat beyond.

    Their reckless behavior in so many things - as current bombings in Syria - make them unsuited to have this arsenal, perhaps even less than North Korea, a country which was devastated by American bombing in the 1950s. An American general bragged that twenty percent of all North Koreans were wiped out. They do have something to fear.

    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke…Unless they really really are suicidal.
    I can also guarantee you that the pentagon has a ‘war plan’ on Israel just like it has for every other nuclear capable country. It has hundreds of ‘what if’ war scenarios.

    The question for Israel is this……Would the US let Israel use a nuke in the ME, the results of which would sink the entire economy of the oil dependent and ‘interconnected’ world for an indefinite period of time?

    That is the question. Which leader or US President would take the responsibility of that world economic catastrophe for the sake of the Jewish state?

    The US ‘sees” everything Israel (and everyone else) does thru our satellites…they can see a silo door opening at a nuke silo. “Boomer’ submarines, in Navy slang, roam the coastal waters awaiting such an event. Boomers are designed to attack large warships and tactical targets on land hence their the primary mission is nuclear deterrence. On top of that they are undetectable and can fire their missile from underwater with no need to surface. Russian subs also have this capability. You can be sure both the US and Russia are in the waters of the ME.

    So the scenario is this…..the US sees a Israeli nuke set to launch at Iran or whoever…..what does the US do?

    We might find out…if it turns out Israel really is insane.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Submarines won't be involved in the first phase. Communication with them is too slow. Submarines will be the last one to learn that a silo door was opened.

    On the other hand submarines can be used in the first strike sneak attack. This is a scenario I can imagine Israel has within its plans.

    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke…Unless they really really are suicidal.

    Guarantees from behind an anonymous account do not count for much. Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That's why it got the nukes in the first place.
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  60. renfro says:
    @anonymous
    Apparently you don't know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of 'green', which is a CIA backed 'color revolution'. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called 'New Yorki Circle" by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them 'reformers'.

    No Iranian recognizes or supports the CIA backed "the National Iranian American Council" that Parsi leads. They are better to stay abroad till are in their graves.

    The CIA stooge has close relation with zionist lobby, J street, and has contributed more than $10000 to this zionist circle who are pro Israel, pro economic sanctions of Iran, and eventually destruction of Iran for so a long time. This stooge can be viewed as another Karzai, or Ghani in Afghanistan, CIA assets, where all are US CITIZENS.

    ” Apparently you don’t know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of ‘green’, which is a CIA backed ‘color revolution’. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called ‘New Yorki Circle” by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them ‘reformers’.

    Can you give me some sources for that?
    Cause everything I’ve found indicates the opposite.

    The Jews for Israel seem to hate him……

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2009/11/trita-parsi-lobbyist-for-iran/30133/

    A fellow Iranian also seems to hate him but that fellow works for the right wing Jewish Commentary……
    ”Sohrab Ahmari faults Parsi for failing to “re-examine U.S. policy and its underlying assumptions.” Instead, he writes, “Quick to ascribe irrationality and bad faith to opponents of engagement, Mr. Parsi is charitable when it comes to examining the motivations of the Iranian side.” In opposition to Parsi’s position, Ahmari concludes, “Mr. Obama’s engagement policy failed not because of Israeli connivance or because the administration did not try hard enough. The policy failed because the Iranian regime, when confronted by its own people or by outsiders, has only one way of responding: with a truncheon.”

    Another Iranian, Hassan Daioleslam also hates him BUT guess what? Hassan Daioleslam is a member of the MEK, the delisted terrorist group that wants to overthrown Iran. So he’s a better bet as a CIA asset than Parsi…..if the CIA wants agents to overthrown Iran. He also attacks Parsi.

    ”Hassan Daioleslam, a U.S.-based Iranian journalist, described NIAC and Trita Parsi as “key players in the lobby enterprise of Tehran’s ayatollahs in the United States” in a 2008 article. NIAC, he wrote, “is one of the Iranian regime’s Lobby arms in the US.”

    So…
    Who Is Hassan Daioleslam?

    https://lobelog.com/who-is-hassan-daioleslam/

    ”In my last post, I noted that Hassan Daioleslam — the man at the center of the ongoing NIAC controversy — has been “said by multiple sources to be affiliated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK, or MKO) — a terrorist group (classified as such by the State Department) with close ties to the Saddam Hussein regime.”

    So the Jews and Israelis hate him and the Iranians that want to overthrow Iran hate him …aounds like a terrible CIA asset.
    If you arent familiar with the MEK read the Lobelog article.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    Thanks for your inquiry.
    The pro Zionist groups are trying so hard to paint Trita Parsi as ‘Iranian government lobby’, which is A LIE. You are right about Hassan Daioleslam where in fact is stooge of the Zionist neocons and member of MEK, trained by both CIA and Mossad.
    Most of the documents that I had, apparently, have been deleted by Google and cannot be found, but here are some links that still are active and shows the cooperation of J street and NIAC, funding of NIAC by George Soros and NED, and NIAC close relations with the STATE DEPARTMENT.
    Number of NIAC members have been arrested and some are still in Prison in Iran. The Iranian government does not recognize NIAC as ‘Iran Lobby’, but the Zionist gangs and their stooges like Daioleslam are trying to paint imaginary link between the two where has been failed.


    NIAC received funding from George Soros:

    [For years J Street denied any connection to billionaire financier George Soros, whose contempt for Israel has never been disguised, only to eventually admit that Soros and family were its principal early backers. Soros, it turns out, is but the best known of J Street’s interesting friends. Another is Genevieve Lynch, a director of NIAC (National Iranian-American Council), whose D.C. lobbying efforts dovetail neatly with those of the Iranian government. She has given over $10,000 per year to J Street and sits on its finance committee.]
    https://cross-currents.com/2011/06/16/j-streets-interesting-friends/


    [Soros is taking heat because he funds NIAC, the company whose head of "The New American Policy On Iran" portion, Patrick Disney, is the author of emails that are among other documents suggesting (not very convincingly, it turns out) that NIAC does indeed lobby in breach of federal rules.]

    http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-taking-heat-over-ties-to-pro-iranian-group-2009-11

    NIAC gave contributions to J street:

    3. J Street joined with the pro-Iranian lobby, the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), to oppose congressional efforts to impose sanctions on Iran. Ben-Ami and NIAC director Trita Parsi co-authored an anti-sanctions article titled “How Diplomacy Can Work with Iran” in Huffington Post in June 2009. At the Knesset, J Street Director Ben Ami lied and said that J Street had never opposed sanctions against Iran.
    4. J Street received large contributions from one of NIAC’s directors, Genevieve Lynch of New York. She serves on J Street’s Finance Committee, and her J Street PAC contributions exceed $10,000 per year.
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143869

    NIAC is recipient of NED:

    [Another recipient of NED grants is the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), which received $25,000 in 2002, $64,000 in 2005, and $107,000 in 2006. The 2002 grant was to carry out a “media training workshop” to train participants representing various civic groups in public relations. The 2005 money was given in part to “strengthen the capacity of civic organizations in Iran”, including by advising Iranian groups on “foreign donor relations.” The 2006 grant was similarly designed to “foster cooperation between Iranian NGOs and the international civil society community and to strengthen the institutional capacity of NGOs in Iran.”[14]
    Following the Iranian election and subsequent violence, NIAC issued a statement saying that “The only plausible way to end the violence is for new elections to be held with independent monitors ensuring its fairness.”[18]]

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/has-the-u-s-played-a-role-in-fomenting-unrest-during-iran-s-election/14095

    http://rooyeshnews.com/39396

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  61. utu says:
    @renfro
    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke...Unless they really really are suicidal.
    I can also guarantee you that the pentagon has a 'war plan' on Israel just like it has for every other nuclear capable country. It has hundreds of 'what if' war scenarios.

    The question for Israel is this......Would the US let Israel use a nuke in the ME, the results of which would sink the entire economy of the oil dependent and 'interconnected' world for an indefinite period of time?

    That is the question. Which leader or US President would take the responsibility of that world economic catastrophe for the sake of the Jewish state?

    The US 'sees" everything Israel (and everyone else) does thru our satellites...they can see a silo door opening at a nuke silo. "Boomer' submarines, in Navy slang, roam the coastal waters awaiting such an event. Boomers are designed to attack large warships and tactical targets on land hence their the primary mission is nuclear deterrence. On top of that they are undetectable and can fire their missile from underwater with no need to surface. Russian subs also have this capability. You can be sure both the US and Russia are in the waters of the ME.

    So the scenario is this.....the US sees a Israeli nuke set to launch at Iran or whoever.....what does the US do?

    We might find out...if it turns out Israel really is insane.

    Submarines won’t be involved in the first phase. Communication with them is too slow. Submarines will be the last one to learn that a silo door was opened.

    On the other hand submarines can be used in the first strike sneak attack. This is a scenario I can imagine Israel has within its plans.

    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke…Unless they really really are suicidal.

    Guarantees from behind an anonymous account do not count for much. Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That’s why it got the nukes in the first place.

    Read More
    • Replies: @renfro
    '' Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That’s why it got the nukes in the first place.''


    So......iow you think they are suicidal.
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  62. renfro says:
    @utu
    Submarines won't be involved in the first phase. Communication with them is too slow. Submarines will be the last one to learn that a silo door was opened.

    On the other hand submarines can be used in the first strike sneak attack. This is a scenario I can imagine Israel has within its plans.

    I guarantee you Israel will not use a nuke…Unless they really really are suicidal.

    Guarantees from behind an anonymous account do not count for much. Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That's why it got the nukes in the first place.

    ” Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That’s why it got the nukes in the first place.”

    So……iow you think they are suicidal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    Who will suicide them?
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  63. utu says:
    @renfro
    '' Against countries without nukes obviously it will use nukes as first. There is no other logical possibility. That’s why it got the nukes in the first place.''


    So......iow you think they are suicidal.

    Who will suicide them?

    Read More
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  64. @renfro
    Monkeys beating their chest pretending to be Silverbacks.


    Bulletin of Atomic Scientist
    volume 73 2017

    Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

    Israel

    Israel is a wild card because of the opacity of its nuclear weapons program. Like other nuclear-armed states, however, Israel has been modernizing its arsenal and probably also its storage facilities. Israel’s nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances but are estimated to include 80–85 warheads.16
    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


    Abstract

    Israel Capabilities

    Although the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, it is generally accepted by friend and foe alike that Israel is a nuclear-armed state—and has been so for nearly half a century. The basis for this conclusion has been strengthened significantly since our previous estimate in 2002, particularly thanks to new documents obtained by scholars under the US Freedom of Information Act and other openly available sources.

    We conclude that many of the public claims about the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal are exaggerated. We estimate that Israel has a stockpile of approximately 80 nuclear warheads for delivery by two dozen missiles, a couple of squadrons of aircraft, and perhaps a small number of sea-launched cruise missiles.

    https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
    Read More
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  65. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @renfro
    '' Apparently you don’t know Trita Parsi. He is a CIA asset and is connected with the fifth column in Iran.
    He is supportive of ‘green’, which is a CIA backed ‘color revolution’. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who lived in the United States for a LONG TIME and people like Trita Parsi are called ‘New Yorki Circle” by Iranians who have NO trust in them. The illiterate Westerners call them ‘reformers’.


    Can you give me some sources for that?
    Cause everything I've found indicates the opposite.

    The Jews for Israel seem to hate him......
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2009/11/trita-parsi-lobbyist-for-iran/30133/

    A fellow Iranian also seems to hate him but that fellow works for the right wing Jewish Commentary......
    ''Sohrab Ahmari faults Parsi for failing to "re-examine U.S. policy and its underlying assumptions." Instead, he writes, "Quick to ascribe irrationality and bad faith to opponents of engagement, Mr. Parsi is charitable when it comes to examining the motivations of the Iranian side." In opposition to Parsi's position, Ahmari concludes, "Mr. Obama's engagement policy failed not because of Israeli connivance or because the administration did not try hard enough. The policy failed because the Iranian regime, when confronted by its own people or by outsiders, has only one way of responding: with a truncheon."


    Another Iranian, Hassan Daioleslam also hates him BUT guess what? Hassan Daioleslam is a member of the MEK, the delisted terrorist group that wants to overthrown Iran. So he's a better bet as a CIA asset than Parsi.....if the CIA wants agents to overthrown Iran. He also attacks Parsi.

    ''Hassan Daioleslam, a U.S.-based Iranian journalist, described NIAC and Trita Parsi as “key players in the lobby enterprise of Tehran’s ayatollahs in the United States” in a 2008 article. NIAC, he wrote, “is one of the Iranian regime’s Lobby arms in the US.”

    So...
    Who Is Hassan Daioleslam?
    https://lobelog.com/who-is-hassan-daioleslam/

    ''In my last post, I noted that Hassan Daioleslam — the man at the center of the ongoing NIAC controversy — has been “said by multiple sources to be affiliated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK, or MKO) — a terrorist group (classified as such by the State Department) with close ties to the Saddam Hussein regime.”

    So the Jews and Israelis hate him and the Iranians that want to overthrow Iran hate him ...aounds like a terrible CIA asset.
    If you arent familiar with the MEK read the Lobelog article.

    Thanks for your inquiry.
    The pro Zionist groups are trying so hard to paint Trita Parsi as ‘Iranian government lobby’, which is A LIE. You are right about Hassan Daioleslam where in fact is stooge of the Zionist neocons and member of MEK, trained by both CIA and Mossad.
    Most of the documents that I had, apparently, have been deleted by Google and cannot be found, but here are some links that still are active and shows the cooperation of J street and NIAC, funding of NIAC by George Soros and NED, and NIAC close relations with the STATE DEPARTMENT.
    Number of NIAC members have been arrested and some are still in Prison in Iran. The Iranian government does not recognize NIAC as ‘Iran Lobby’, but the Zionist gangs and their stooges like Daioleslam are trying to paint imaginary link between the two where has been failed.

    NIAC received funding from George Soros:

    [For years J Street denied any connection to billionaire financier George Soros, whose contempt for Israel has never been disguised, only to eventually admit that Soros and family were its principal early backers. Soros, it turns out, is but the best known of J Street’s interesting friends. Another is Genevieve Lynch, a director of NIAC (National Iranian-American Council), whose D.C. lobbying efforts dovetail neatly with those of the Iranian government. She has given over $10,000 per year to J Street and sits on its finance committee.]

    https://cross-currents.com/2011/06/16/j-streets-interesting-friends/

    [Soros is taking heat because he funds NIAC, the company whose head of "The New American Policy On Iran" portion, Patrick Disney, is the author of emails that are among other documents suggesting (not very convincingly, it turns out) that NIAC does indeed lobby in breach of federal rules.]

    http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-taking-heat-over-ties-to-pro-iranian-group-2009-11

    NIAC gave contributions to J street:

    3. J Street joined with the pro-Iranian lobby, the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), to oppose congressional efforts to impose sanctions on Iran. Ben-Ami and NIAC director Trita Parsi co-authored an anti-sanctions article titled “How Diplomacy Can Work with Iran” in Huffington Post in June 2009. At the Knesset, J Street Director Ben Ami lied and said that J Street had never opposed sanctions against Iran.
    4. J Street received large contributions from one of NIAC’s directors, Genevieve Lynch of New York. She serves on J Street’s Finance Committee, and her J Street PAC contributions exceed $10,000 per year.

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143869

    NIAC is recipient of NED:

    [Another recipient of NED grants is the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), which received $25,000 in 2002, $64,000 in 2005, and $107,000 in 2006. The 2002 grant was to carry out a “media training workshop” to train participants representing various civic groups in public relations. The 2005 money was given in part to “strengthen the capacity of civic organizations in Iran”, including by advising Iranian groups on “foreign donor relations.” The 2006 grant was similarly designed to “foster cooperation between Iranian NGOs and the international civil society community and to strengthen the institutional capacity of NGOs in Iran.”[14]
    Following the Iranian election and subsequent violence, NIAC issued a statement saying that “The only plausible way to end the violence is for new elections to be held with independent monitors ensuring its fairness.”[18]]

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/has-the-u-s-played-a-role-in-fomenting-unrest-during-iran-s-election/14095

    http://rooyeshnews.com/39396

    Read More
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  66. motorman says: • Website

    You started this off with some pig ignorant glib jabs at Trump.
    If you believe the CNN propaganda you are not a journalist.
    You turned off your audience in paragraph 1.

    Read More
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  67. zoro says:

    I read this with amused understanding of Zionim. You have taken Norman Podhoretz genre of Talmudic analysis to a level that one could say it is on STEROIDS. I do not regret using a current clique to for this purpose.

    Read More
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  68. CarlD says:

    Re Israel’s nuclear tests

    Have there been any unexplained earthquakes in Israel that could be construed to be
    the result of nuclear tests?

    Or is it that the nukes Israel has are of such a proven design and execution that testing
    was judged futile, in which case they could be construed as having been supplied by
    Uncle Sam who did all the testing?

    Since according to certain German assertions Israel and South Africa colluded to
    manufacture/obtain nuclear weapons, it could have been that such tests were made
    under the South African mantle, something that would have been made before Mandela.

    Is it possible that De Beers would have endured the possible collapse of its diamond
    mines to accommodate Israel’s designs?

    These are perplexing questions. Is it that Israel’s scientists are so good that trials are a
    moot question?

    The World knows for sure that the US, Russia, France, Uk, China, India, and North Korea are
    nuclear powers because they tried their arsenal and it worked.

    Must it be assumed that Israel has functional nukes even if it is not proven?

    Can Israel be sure that what it intends to destroy will be destroyed if the weapon has not been
    proven to work?

    Maybe the Samson option is bogus.

    Maybe it is not.

    Read More
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