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People in the Future Will Not Look Like Brazilians

Olivia Munn

Olivia Munn

Periodically rather than offering up original thoughts it is needful to engage defensive warfare against pernicious memes. For example, one thesis that is commonly bandied about today is that racial admixture will result in the blending away of all differences, toward a homogeneous beige future without end. This is false. It is false for several reasons, genetic, and sociological. But, it is persistent for ideological reasons.

Here’s the latest instance, Future Humans Will All Look Brazilian, Researcher Says:

Meanwhile, many other physical traits will simply blend together. “Most of the traits that we think of as distinguishing different groups (hair colour, skin colour, hair curliness, facial features, eye shape) are controlled by multiple genes, so they don’t follow a simple dominant/recessive pattern,” McDonald explained. “In those cases, blending will make people look more similar over time.”

Hazara

Hazara

The recourse to a blending analogy is unfortunate. Genetics is not a blending process, it is a discrete one, which reconfigures variation every generation. The underlying variation in the form of alleles is maintained, even if the genotype frequencies shift. This insight is implied in the article with talk about recessive phenotypes and nods to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. One of the key problems with Charles Darwin’s original theory of evolutionary process is that it did not account for how heritable variation could be maintained. If that variation melted away every generation through blending processes then the world would rapid equilibrate toward homogenization. Roughly half the variation would disappear per generation in an exponential decay process.

41PHSZN6AEL And yet variation remains! Though the phenotypes, the traits, may exhibit blending between parents, the underlying genetic variation is governed by Mendelian dynamics. This is why in populations where alleles for traits like pigmentation segregate in a polymorphic fashion, such as in India, it is not uncommon for complexion to vary within families. Though on the population wide scale there is some tendency toward clustering about the mean, variance remains within a random mating group at equilibrium.

Another major issue is that these discussions too often focus on single traits. When evaluated across loci the variation and range in possibilities due to admixture in fact results in greater diversity than is possible today. Mendel’s law of independent assortment implies that traits and variation will not be co-inherited. Before international travel and migration the possibility of someone with blue eyes, an epicanthic fold, and tightly curled hair, was a theoretical affair. Today there are almost certainly people who exhibit all these traits.

By coincidence these people are likely to be Brazilian, as this is a nation where there are large populations of African, Japanese, and Northern European (German) ancestry. And the example of Brazil itself illustrates empirically why homogenization will not proceed in the manner which intuition tells us. Brazil may be modally a brown nation, but its physical types run the gamut, expressing the underlying genetic variation. Among populations such as the Uygurs, who are fusion of eastern and western streams, individuals arise who reflect in near totality the physical types of only one of their ancestral populations, even if most individuals exhibit configurations in equipoise.

And so it was, and so it will be. The reality is that today is not the age of amalgamation, that age has passed. The most recent work in human genomics actually brings us to the conclusion that in fact most of the “pure” populations we see around us today are fusions of deeply diverged human evolutionary threads. The ancestors of Europeans in the Pleistocene were as differentiated as modern continental races (i.e., Fst on the order of 0.05 to 0.15 depending on the pairwise comparison). The same is true of South Asians, and most other groups you can think of. The “Great Mixing” after the retreat of the ice and collision of peoples may explain why there is so little evidence for hybrid inviability today in cross-racial pairings; it may have been purged from the genomes of modern groups through selection during that period.

The admixture of this age will be but a shadow of the past. The reality is that for centuries into the future huge numbers of people will persist who we might recognize as European, African, and East Asian, in totality of their form and genetic heritage. The amalgamation of the early Holocene probably occurred through the fusion of groups in the early stages of demographic expansion. They were tribal affairs, parochial in their scope, born out of desperation and chaos, even if the consequences were continental in their implications. The clans of yore became the mothers of nations, but those nations are mature and endless in their number now. The existence of Brazil as we understand it is exceptional, the product of racial slavery on a massive scale during a time of tumult. It is the exception, rather than the norm.

Rahul Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi

In the next few decades international elites will no doubt enter into a period of intermarriage as old barriers fall, and new commonalities of class transcend ethnicity. But for the majority of the citizenry of the old nations such considerations will be theoretical. The initial period of synthesis and cross-fertilization will give way to stasis as all those open to the new possibilities of finding mates across old racial categories will have done so. Those who remain, the majority, will be more conservative in their preferences and tastes. The Holocene ushered in races which are extant across the world today through admixture; the anthropocene will usher in the post-national international race of global elite. Rather than twining a few threads of the human lineage, this new population will twist all the threads together in a radical new conformation. And it will be anything but homogeneous and uniform in its expression!
 
• Category: Race/Ethnicity, Science • Tags: Genetics, Race 
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  1. The other day I was looking at a book about Cape Verde (island in the Atlantic with a population of mixed Portuguese and West African descent, with a Jewish element as well) and saw a picture of a very cute little girl with light brown skin, kinky black hair, and green eyes. I felt a certain ‘communion’ with her, as I have green eyes myself. My ancestors come from Italy, Ireland and Norway, so it’s not surprising I ended up with green eyes, but it struck me as somewhat strange that my own daughter doesn’t have green eyes but this girl from an island halfway around the world from where I live (Toronto, Canada) does.

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  2. Most people in China or India or even Europe may remain in their current race categories, but will that also be true of the US? (I don’t know the answer, I am just curious what the data says and what your prediction is about the US as a whole, or about California in particular? I ask because my ex-boss used to say that race will become meaningless and irrelevant in California in our lifetime. Any chance he was right?)

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    I am just curious what the data says and what your prediction is about the US as a whole, or about California in particular?

    the census has predictions. substantial minority will be multiracial. but hawaii has been like this for generations. race still matters. just different and more complicated. though it does look like for all practical purposes part-white people with asian/hispanic heritage default to white socially even if they give different responses on surveys.
  3. @omarali50
    Most people in China or India or even Europe may remain in their current race categories, but will that also be true of the US? (I don't know the answer, I am just curious what the data says and what your prediction is about the US as a whole, or about California in particular? I ask because my ex-boss used to say that race will become meaningless and irrelevant in California in our lifetime. Any chance he was right?)

    I am just curious what the data says and what your prediction is about the US as a whole, or about California in particular?

    the census has predictions. substantial minority will be multiracial. but hawaii has been like this for generations. race still matters. just different and more complicated. though it does look like for all practical purposes part-white people with asian/hispanic heritage default to white socially even if they give different responses on surveys.

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    • Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist
    An older multiracial example to look at is the Creole social system of Louisiana.
  4. Brazil is no racial paradise.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/fifa-world-cup-brazil-racism-lazaro-ramos-526488

    Football’s world governing body Fifa has denied any involvement with the decision to replace two Afro-Brazilian stars with a white couple for the 2014 Fifa World Cup draw in Brazil.

    The move has prompted fury and allegations of racism across the country but, strangely, no one appears to know who made the decision.

    Lazaro Ramos and Camila Pitanga – two well-known and much loved Brazilian soap stars had been scheduled to play a leading role in the World Cup group stage draw on 6 December in the northeastern state of Bahia – the historic epicentre of Afro-Brazilian culture.

    And they have a very robust affirmative action program.

    http://gotothinktank.com/affirmative-action-in-brazil-is-brazil-a-racial-democracy/

    n 2012, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff signed one of the most sweeping affirmative action laws in the Western Hemisphere to date. The Law of Social Quotas, or “Lei de Cotas Sociais, “requires public universities to reserve half of their admission spots for Brazilian public school students.”[7] This law is intended to promote racial equality. The quota system intends to increase the number of African decent students from the current 8,700 to 56,000 in then next 10 years, which is when the racial quota will be discontinued. [8] The government also has other initiatives such as the Program of University for Everyone (Programa Universidade para Todos) that aims to expand access by promoting the exchange of scholarships in private universities by the exemption of federal taxes for the participating institutions.[9]

    This seems particularly dystopian to me

    In addition to popular perception of The Law of Social Quotas, there are also serious flaws with determining which students can apply under the system. In addition to taking a national exam, applicants must send a picture of themselves. A secret committee judges these pictures to determine if someone can be categorized as Afro-Brazilian. The process can be quite arbitrary. Adam Stefan’s documentary film, “Brazil in Black and White,” shows two identical twin brothers applying under the quota system. One was judged to be Afro-Brazilian, while the other was not. [11] It is extremely challenging to implement this type of legislation in a population that doesn’t classify themselves by race. In the 2010 census, 38% of the population self-identified as mixed race.[12]

    The documentary about this controversial policy.

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    • Replies: @Emilia
    With regard to Brazil (and perhaps to a lesser extent other Latin American countries), I get the impression that European immigrant groups such as the Germans in Brazil have a tendency to intermarry among themselves or with other European immigrant groups. No statistics, but just a general impression: for example, I had an ex-boyfriend who was born in Peru but had a father of German descent and a mother of Italian descent. You would think that in a country with only a minority of Europeans, his parents would have found partners in the general population, but they didn't. So that puts another dent in the 'cosmic race' argument.
  5. First, as omarali50 notes, some places (generically, the “old world”) will stay fairly close to the status quo for a long time because they have had less immigration.

    Second, if you do a statistical model, you find that almost everyone in minority populations (defined mathematically and not sociologically) who is not ideologically averse to interracial mixes will be mixed within a few generations, while significant numbers of people in majority populations remain unadmixed even with random mating for a longer period of time.

    Practically speaking, in the U.S. openness to interracial/inter-ethnic marriage is very high (ca. 50% for women) among U.S. Hispanics (especially after the first and even more so after the second generation for immigrants) and Asian-Americans (again, with post-first generation rates higher). Native American admixture rates are higher on average and similar even in “pure blooded” cases. White to black interracial marriage rates in the U.S. are much lower, but this is bridged in part by somewhat higher black to Hispanic interracial marriage rate (and of course, almost all African-Americans in the U.S. have significant non-African admixture already; sometimes recent – such a prominent Americans commonly described as African-American such as Barack Obama (who has no conventionally “African-American” ancestors, and Tiger Woods who has recent Southeast Asian, African and European ancestors). European-Asian admixture and European-Hispanic admixture often end up with a somewhat “Mestizo” look.

    Richelle Mead’s world in her Age of X series beginning with Gameboard of the Gods, is about right in proposing a medium term future with enclaves of relatively unadmixed ancestral communities (with definitions of in and out groups that aren’t consistent across unadmixed types), and a majority mixed race population. She is also right, I think, in guessing that the admixed population, like Mestizos in Latin America, become their own category with a range of phenotype markers, treated as its own sociological type, rather than being thought of as mixed.

    She is probably wrong, however, in hypothesizing that the dramatic measures taken to produce that mix in her fiction was actually necessary to do so (she proposed mass, government enforced intercontinental migration to respond to a modern plague), and she is probably likewise wrong about the inbreeding depression effects associated with staying within roughly county population sized unadmixed populations (although science fiction devices are partially responsible for this in her world).

    Thus, in the U.S. ca. 2065 you will probably have:

    * A significant number of European-Americans mutts, some of whom are regionally distinct as Northern or Southern European) with some unadmixed by choice, but a majority unadmixed by chance. This would be larger in the American South, and rural predominantly white areas of the U.S. today, and smaller in urban centers of the U.S. (perhaps 40%)

    * Lots of mixed race people who are blended with a basically mestizo appearance and various shades of skin tones and once racially distinguishing traits like epicantic folds, frizzy hair, etc. (perhaps 30%)

    * Significant small, tight knit populations of Scandinavian, Italian, Greek, Korean, Chinese, Japanese, Azkenazi Jewish, Spanish, East African, Southeast Asian, etc. who are predominantly unadmixed by choice rather than chance. I’d be surprised if this was more than 15% of the total.

    * A notable phenotypic shift within people identified as black towards more European and more Hispanic admixture. Blacks will tend to be a bit lighter skinned and have a lower proportion of distinctive African features. The range of variation within this category will be much greater than it is today, more like Latin America than the contemporary U.S. I suspect that the percentage would be a bit larger than today (perhaps 15%).

    These four categories may make up 10%-40% each, none a majority, with the third obviously very fractured.

    I suspect that sociologically, there will be a slight edge to many of the groups in the first and third categories, socioeconomically, but that mostly, interracial differences socio-economically will be between the first three and the last, with a “Eurasian” and “black” divide that remains almost as stiff socioeconomically as it is today.

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  6. @Razib Khan
    I am just curious what the data says and what your prediction is about the US as a whole, or about California in particular?

    the census has predictions. substantial minority will be multiracial. but hawaii has been like this for generations. race still matters. just different and more complicated. though it does look like for all practical purposes part-white people with asian/hispanic heritage default to white socially even if they give different responses on surveys.

    An older multiracial example to look at is the Creole social system of Louisiana.

    Read More
  7. Well, I am Brazilian and I can say Brazilians in the present do not look like your imagined homogeneous invented “modal Brazilians”. Imagined communities are always a social construct. There are more blond people and Nordic types in Brazil like Gisele Bündchen than in Norway or Denmark. There are more Southern European phenotypes in Brazil like Ayrton Senna da Silva than in the entire Iberian Peninsula. There are more African types and “Mulatos” like Pelé and Ronaldinho Gaúcho than in any other American country. There are more completely pure Native American types and “Mestiços” like Raoni and Eunice Baía than in most of the American countries. So Brazil is diversity and all possible human types and human phenotypes experienced an extremely big demographic growth in the last 150 years. I think every possible global phenotype can be found in Brazil as a result of the terrific admixture and that’s the future. A very rich segment of 10% of the population and struggling masses will also be the future of the USA and the European Union and so the social structure will look like the Brazilian one that has improved a lot in the last 15 years with the social-democracy of the PT, Lula and Dilma, good Presidents in my opinion.

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  8. @Alex M
    Brazil is no racial paradise.
    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/fifa-world-cup-brazil-racism-lazaro-ramos-526488

    Football's world governing body Fifa has denied any involvement with the decision to replace two Afro-Brazilian stars with a white couple for the 2014 Fifa World Cup draw in Brazil.

    The move has prompted fury and allegations of racism across the country but, strangely, no one appears to know who made the decision.

    Lazaro Ramos and Camila Pitanga - two well-known and much loved Brazilian soap stars had been scheduled to play a leading role in the World Cup group stage draw on 6 December in the northeastern state of Bahia - the historic epicentre of Afro-Brazilian culture.
     
    And they have a very robust affirmative action program.
    http://gotothinktank.com/affirmative-action-in-brazil-is-brazil-a-racial-democracy/

    n 2012, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff signed one of the most sweeping affirmative action laws in the Western Hemisphere to date. The Law of Social Quotas, or “Lei de Cotas Sociais, “requires public universities to reserve half of their admission spots for Brazilian public school students.”[7] This law is intended to promote racial equality. The quota system intends to increase the number of African decent students from the current 8,700 to 56,000 in then next 10 years, which is when the racial quota will be discontinued. [8] The government also has other initiatives such as the Program of University for Everyone (Programa Universidade para Todos) that aims to expand access by promoting the exchange of scholarships in private universities by the exemption of federal taxes for the participating institutions.[9]

     

    This seems particularly dystopian to me

    In addition to popular perception of The Law of Social Quotas, there are also serious flaws with determining which students can apply under the system. In addition to taking a national exam, applicants must send a picture of themselves. A secret committee judges these pictures to determine if someone can be categorized as Afro-Brazilian. The process can be quite arbitrary. Adam Stefan’s documentary film, “Brazil in Black and White,” shows two identical twin brothers applying under the quota system. One was judged to be Afro-Brazilian, while the other was not. [11] It is extremely challenging to implement this type of legislation in a population that doesn’t classify themselves by race. In the 2010 census, 38% of the population self-identified as mixed race.[12]
     
    The documentary about this controversial policy.
    https://youtu.be/g29P3-xj7GQ

    With regard to Brazil (and perhaps to a lesser extent other Latin American countries), I get the impression that European immigrant groups such as the Germans in Brazil have a tendency to intermarry among themselves or with other European immigrant groups. No statistics, but just a general impression: for example, I had an ex-boyfriend who was born in Peru but had a father of German descent and a mother of Italian descent. You would think that in a country with only a minority of Europeans, his parents would have found partners in the general population, but they didn’t. So that puts another dent in the ‘cosmic race’ argument.

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    there's a lot of spatial segregation. lots of the north euro migrants live in the far south.
  9. @Emilia
    With regard to Brazil (and perhaps to a lesser extent other Latin American countries), I get the impression that European immigrant groups such as the Germans in Brazil have a tendency to intermarry among themselves or with other European immigrant groups. No statistics, but just a general impression: for example, I had an ex-boyfriend who was born in Peru but had a father of German descent and a mother of Italian descent. You would think that in a country with only a minority of Europeans, his parents would have found partners in the general population, but they didn't. So that puts another dent in the 'cosmic race' argument.

    there’s a lot of spatial segregation. lots of the north euro migrants live in the far south.

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    • Replies: @Emilia
    I suspect that's partly because the original German immigrants found the climate in Southern Brazil (temperate rather than tropical) more like Germany.
  10. there is so little evidence for hybrid inviability today in cross-racial pairings

    I’m curious: is there exactly zero evidence for hybrid inviability among modern humans or slightly more than zero?

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    zero. the exceptions are things like blood group incompabilities, but they don't usually count, since they vary a lot within populations. or this:

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17478679

    but that probably has no major fitness effect. too late in life.

    , @Razib Khan
    alright, this is the final answer

    https://twitter.com/pontus_skoglund/status/600397015571365888

    @razibkhan @mathiesoniain @dbweissman have looked at the West Eurasian ancestry in Khoesan populations, no evidence for reduction near genes— Pontus Skoglund (@pontus_skoglund) May 18, 2015
     
  11. @Glossy
    there is so little evidence for hybrid inviability today in cross-racial pairings

    I'm curious: is there exactly zero evidence for hybrid inviability among modern humans or slightly more than zero?

    zero. the exceptions are things like blood group incompabilities, but they don’t usually count, since they vary a lot within populations. or this:

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17478679

    but that probably has no major fitness effect. too late in life.

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  12. ” Future Humans Will All Look Brazilian, Researcher Says:”

    I find it funny that many Americans assume that all Brazilians have a uniform phenotype where they all look exactly alike racially like the Han Chinese for example.

    The average Brazilian soap opera novela actor has a different racial phenotype than the average Brazilian who lives in a favela shantytown.

    The average Brazilian who lives in Santa Catarina has a different racial phenotype than the average Brazilian who lives in Bahia.

    The average phenotype difference between Brazilians in Santa Catarina and Brazilians in Bahia is bigger than the phenotype difference between Northern Europeans and Southern Europeans.

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    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    My impression is that there has been a lot of mixing of black, Indian and Portuguese in the pardo population, probably dating back to Brazil's settlement centuries ago, but most of the descendants of later immigrants such as Germans and Japanese have married within their own ethnic groups.
  13. @Glossy
    there is so little evidence for hybrid inviability today in cross-racial pairings

    I'm curious: is there exactly zero evidence for hybrid inviability among modern humans or slightly more than zero?

    alright, this is the final answer

    @razibkhan @mathiesoniain @dbweissman have looked at the West Eurasian ancestry in Khoesan populations, no evidence for reduction near genes— Pontus Skoglund (@pontus_skoglund) May 18, 2015

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  14. “[M]odern continental races”?

    Can you elaborate on that?

    I don’t really get most peoples insistence on blending inheritance at all. It really just stems from ignorance of science. And biological races are pretty fuzzy already, at the fringes you can find people who look not like either race, so maybe that’s where this misconception comes from. I don’t know.

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    the Fst between north euros and chinese is 0.10. that's a value you're seeing between EFF and WHG. today the Fst across euro groups is like 0.005, so it's really homogenized since then.
  15. @Kothiru
    "[M]odern continental races"?

    Can you elaborate on that?

    I don't really get most peoples insistence on blending inheritance at all. It really just stems from ignorance of science. And biological races are pretty fuzzy already, at the fringes you can find people who look not like either race, so maybe that's where this misconception comes from. I don't know.

    the Fst between north euros and chinese is 0.10. that’s a value you’re seeing between EFF and WHG. today the Fst across euro groups is like 0.005, so it’s really homogenized since then.

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  16. @Jefferson
    " Future Humans Will All Look Brazilian, Researcher Says:"

    I find it funny that many Americans assume that all Brazilians have a uniform phenotype where they all look exactly alike racially like the Han Chinese for example.

    The average Brazilian soap opera novela actor has a different racial phenotype than the average Brazilian who lives in a favela shantytown.

    The average Brazilian who lives in Santa Catarina has a different racial phenotype than the average Brazilian who lives in Bahia.

    The average phenotype difference between Brazilians in Santa Catarina and Brazilians in Bahia is bigger than the phenotype difference between Northern Europeans and Southern Europeans.

    My impression is that there has been a lot of mixing of black, Indian and Portuguese in the pardo population, probably dating back to Brazil’s settlement centuries ago, but most of the descendants of later immigrants such as Germans and Japanese have married within their own ethnic groups.

    Read More
  17. With Africa’s population expected to balloon from 1 to 4 billion by 2100, and many countries getting large influxes of African immigrants, it seems like the world will indeed come to resemble Brazil more in that having a large black or mixed with black population will likely become common in many places where it is not common today.

    Imagine China in 100 years with tens of millions of people of African descent, and a healthy number of mixed people as well.

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    • Replies: @Jacobite
    This population growth is still only potentially feasible unless the much ballyhooed African agricultural revolution actually occurs. Despite increases of wealth and ag production in certain countries " the absolute number of people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/liz-wilson/realising-africas-agricultural-revolution_b_5770922.html

    Africa still imports a substantial amount of food. It will take a lot of fertilizer, a lot of changes to existing farming practices, and the cutting down of huge swaths of rainforest in order to support 3 billion more Africans. Although the Earth can potentially support the 10 billion people the U.N. predicts we will have by 2100, I have my doubts that it will actually occur. Why should homo sapiens be exempt from massive die-offs due to overpopulation and disease that other large mammal species experience.
  18. @Razib Khan
    there's a lot of spatial segregation. lots of the north euro migrants live in the far south.

    I suspect that’s partly because the original German immigrants found the climate in Southern Brazil (temperate rather than tropical) more like Germany.

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  19. My 5 cents: as societies get mixed, people will care less and less about mixing itself. They will not going to be spending too much time analysing people, whether they look this or that blah blah blah ; instead, they will be more flexible toward diversity, they will get used to and, perhaps, enjoy it, taken for granted. The very notion of mixing will change over time. As we have seen in Brazil, people are not comfortable to be called ‘mixed race’. They just think of themselves as Brazilians, regardless of their ancestry. It is very different from modern day USA. Maybe even in USA, the country of the census boxes, over time it will matter less and less, at least socially, so that the people that we now called ‘mixed’ will in future just say, “I am American”; the old northern European sterotype will go either to backward places in USA or to history books. I think that is already happening in southern California, especially among the elites. Needless to say, the fact that the majority is ‘mixed’ does not implying that some minorities are still discriminated, as we can see in Brazil. However, the white versus non-white spectrum can be less relevant. For example, very white but poor people from, say, Poland can be discrimined is not so white or equally white places, such as England or France.

    Cheers

    PS: as a side note Olivia Munn does not look so non-european to me. I have seen why more asian looking people playing non-ethnic roles in Scandinavian movies. A doubt she will be notice in most european countries she will have a strong ethnic looking.

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  20. Razib the Fst between north euros and chinese is 0.10. that’s a value you’re seeing between EFF and WHG. today the Fst across euro groups is like 0.005, so it’s really homogenized since then.

    Looking at the FST stats in the Haak paper, Yamnaya-LBK have an FST of like 0.05, and LBK-WHG 0.091, Yamnaya-WHG is 0.076.

    Now if you look at their Haak modelling stats, at European extremes Sardinians model are about 90% EEF, with 5% Yamnaya and 5% WHG, while Lithuanian model at around 20% EEF, 50% Yamnaya, 30% WHG.

    Lithuanian-Sardinian FST is around 0.021 (Lithuanian to LBK_EN is 0.034). That’s probably around half of what I would expect from a linear combination of their differences in ancestral components. Different diverse ancestral components which come together in a population seem to lead to lower FST. Ancestry remains relatively differentiation while their raw between group FST differentiation statistic with all other groups is reduced.

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    good point! i think perhaps higher diversity within groups might be reducing Fst?
  21. So the women of the future are not guaranteed to look like Olivia Munn?

    Thanks a lot Razib.

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  22. @M
    Razib the Fst between north euros and chinese is 0.10. that’s a value you’re seeing between EFF and WHG. today the Fst across euro groups is like 0.005, so it’s really homogenized since then.

    Looking at the FST stats in the Haak paper, Yamnaya-LBK have an FST of like 0.05, and LBK-WHG 0.091, Yamnaya-WHG is 0.076.

    Now if you look at their Haak modelling stats, at European extremes Sardinians model are about 90% EEF, with 5% Yamnaya and 5% WHG, while Lithuanian model at around 20% EEF, 50% Yamnaya, 30% WHG.

    Lithuanian-Sardinian FST is around 0.021 (Lithuanian to LBK_EN is 0.034). That's probably around half of what I would expect from a linear combination of their differences in ancestral components. Different diverse ancestral components which come together in a population seem to lead to lower FST. Ancestry remains relatively differentiation while their raw between group FST differentiation statistic with all other groups is reduced.

    good point! i think perhaps higher diversity within groups might be reducing Fst?

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  23. Yes, allelic variation will remain. But with regard to phenotypic variation, devil is in the details. It’s easy to concoct scenarios where some variation and/or variants are lost. Keyword being concoct, perhaps.

    Suppose we have two groups fixed in opposite directions for 20 additive loci that affect skin color. Suppose we mix these populations in equal numbers for enough time for LD to mostly break down (not long if they’re physically unlinked). Then the probability of recovering either of the original phenotypes becomes (1/2)^20. You won’t see it often. Granted, you will see a lot more grades of skin color in the population, which is what you’re getting at. Note that as the number of additive loci goes up, the nearer “average” everyone will become – assuming all loci are of small effect, which is probably not right.

    Geographically-limited recessive traits would become less common under global panmixia. E.g., almost certainly the frequency of blue eyed phenotype would drop. Let’s say the frequency of a recessive blue eye allele is p in Europe and virtually 0 elsewhere. If Europe holds q of the world’s inhabitants, then the frequency of blue eyes now is q*p^2. Under global panmixia, it would become (q*p)^2, so reduced by factor of q.

    You know all this; I’m just nitpicking.

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    • Replies: @RCB
    err, (1/2)^39. Diploid, but two extreme phenotypes.
  24. @RCB
    Yes, allelic variation will remain. But with regard to phenotypic variation, devil is in the details. It's easy to concoct scenarios where some variation and/or variants are lost. Keyword being concoct, perhaps.

    Suppose we have two groups fixed in opposite directions for 20 additive loci that affect skin color. Suppose we mix these populations in equal numbers for enough time for LD to mostly break down (not long if they're physically unlinked). Then the probability of recovering either of the original phenotypes becomes (1/2)^20. You won't see it often. Granted, you will see a lot more grades of skin color in the population, which is what you're getting at. Note that as the number of additive loci goes up, the nearer "average" everyone will become - assuming all loci are of small effect, which is probably not right.

    Geographically-limited recessive traits would become less common under global panmixia. E.g., almost certainly the frequency of blue eyed phenotype would drop. Let's say the frequency of a recessive blue eye allele is p in Europe and virtually 0 elsewhere. If Europe holds q of the world's inhabitants, then the frequency of blue eyes now is q*p^2. Under global panmixia, it would become (q*p)^2, so reduced by factor of q.

    You know all this; I'm just nitpicking.

    err, (1/2)^39. Diploid, but two extreme phenotypes.

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  25. Rahul Gandhi’s visage looks like the archetype for a generic Republican candidate for President in 2016! Is this due to nurture or simply an example of convergent evolution among political families in democracies? ;-)

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  26. Regarding Darwin’s theory. Didn’t he postulate an extremely high mutation rate that somehow recreated the diversity in the next generation? That was my impression while reading his books.

    I guess the mathematics of such a model wouldn’t work, but at least that’s what he seemed to believe.

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  27. But for the majority of the citizenry of the old nations such considerations will be theoretical. The initial period of synthesis and cross-fertilization will give way to stasis as all those open to the new possibilities of finding mates across old racial categories will have done so. Those who remain, the majority, will be more conservative in their preferences and tastes.

    Doesn’t this assume these preferences for exogamy or endogamy are heritable. Is there any reason to think they are?

    After all, we don’t find any “pure” WHG groups in Europe.

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  28. When I see “in the future we will all look like brazilians”, I always think about the far future (five-digit year number, Trantor) and the huge range of appearances you see on Brazil at the moment. As says, getting a full African or Japanese hand after a fair shuffle will be quite rare, but getting say 80% of the visually most salient cards should be enough convincingly look “ethnic”.

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  29. In the next few decades international elites will no doubt enter into a period of intermarriage as old barriers fall, and new commonalities of class transcend ethnicity.

    Well, that was the standard among the European royal families and high nobility class for centuries. They were the international elites and they usually engaged in intermarriage across national lines. For them, too, commonalities of class often trascended ethnicity.

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    • Replies: @Kat Grey
    You are correct up to a point. In the Middle Ages most of the royal houses in western Europe were of Frankish origin, descended from Charlemagne. By the 17th century due to the gaping religious divide, the German principalities and duchies began churning out royal consorts by the conveyor belt to be allocated along sectarian lines. The British House of Hanover was almost completely ethnically German up until George VI wed the Anglo-Scot Elizabeth-Bowes-Lyon. The Bourbons also took the odd German wife, whereas the Russian tsars almost exclusively married Germans with the odd Dane thrown in for variety. The Austrians and Spanish as Habsburgs were already Germanic.
  30. @Hipster
    With Africa's population expected to balloon from 1 to 4 billion by 2100, and many countries getting large influxes of African immigrants, it seems like the world will indeed come to resemble Brazil more in that having a large black or mixed with black population will likely become common in many places where it is not common today.

    Imagine China in 100 years with tens of millions of people of African descent, and a healthy number of mixed people as well.

    This population growth is still only potentially feasible unless the much ballyhooed African agricultural revolution actually occurs. Despite increases of wealth and ag production in certain countries ” the absolute number of people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/liz-wilson/realising-africas-agricultural-revolution_b_5770922.html

    Africa still imports a substantial amount of food. It will take a lot of fertilizer, a lot of changes to existing farming practices, and the cutting down of huge swaths of rainforest in order to support 3 billion more Africans. Although the Earth can potentially support the 10 billion people the U.N. predicts we will have by 2100, I have my doubts that it will actually occur. Why should homo sapiens be exempt from massive die-offs due to overpopulation and disease that other large mammal species experience.

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  31. The initial period of synthesis and cross-fertilization will give way to stasis as all those open to the new possibilities of finding mates across old racial categories will have done so. Those who remain, the majority, will be more conservative in their preferences and tastes.

    Unless some of the admixed individuals will look close enough to one or another racial category to appeal to some of the more conservative ones. That way people 75% belonging to one or another racial category will appear, who might appeal to absolutely conservative individuals. So some of their children might belong 87.5% to one of the racial groups, and appeal to all but the most conservative individuals of said racial group. So some of their children in turn will be… you get my point. In the end, there will be a huge continuum.

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  32. @Jacobite
    Rahul Gandhi's visage looks like the archetype for a generic Republican candidate for President in 2016! Is this due to nurture or simply an example of convergent evolution among political families in democracies? ;-)

    He’s half Italian.

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  33. Anonymous says: • Website     Show CommentNext New Comment

    But that is what is so humorous about the first paper. I have been in Brazil for the last 9 months on sabbatical, and traveled from the Amazon to Iguazu. I have seen Brazilians that are blond and blue eyed, black and brown eyed, Asian, both apparently Chinese and Japanese, Native Americans, one of my friends is clearly of Italian descent, another looks like Juan Valdez, and yet a third looks Antonio Banderas. OF COURSE everybody will look like Brazilians. That is because Brazilians look like everybody.

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    • Replies: @J Yan
    That was my first thought. Brazil is the empirical and visual refutation of the blending of human traits. What the Brazilian gene pool does produce is outliers, such as she-can't-be-real Adriana Lima.
  34. @Anonymous
    But that is what is so humorous about the first paper. I have been in Brazil for the last 9 months on sabbatical, and traveled from the Amazon to Iguazu. I have seen Brazilians that are blond and blue eyed, black and brown eyed, Asian, both apparently Chinese and Japanese, Native Americans, one of my friends is clearly of Italian descent, another looks like Juan Valdez, and yet a third looks Antonio Banderas. OF COURSE everybody will look like Brazilians. That is because Brazilians look like everybody.

    That was my first thought. Brazil is the empirical and visual refutation of the blending of human traits. What the Brazilian gene pool does produce is outliers, such as she-can’t-be-real Adriana Lima.

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    • Replies: @CupOfCanada
    Seems to be quite the opposite. Brazil shows thus that this blending of peoples doesn't homogenize traits, but rather broadens the overall spectrum.
  35. Razib, which contemporary human groups are differentiated by the highest Fst measure?

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    khoisan vs. oceanian or amerindian (due to drift in latter groups)
  36. @Zemrock

    In the next few decades international elites will no doubt enter into a period of intermarriage as old barriers fall, and new commonalities of class transcend ethnicity.
     
    Well, that was the standard among the European royal families and high nobility class for centuries. They were the international elites and they usually engaged in intermarriage across national lines. For them, too, commonalities of class often trascended ethnicity.

    You are correct up to a point. In the Middle Ages most of the royal houses in western Europe were of Frankish origin, descended from Charlemagne. By the 17th century due to the gaping religious divide, the German principalities and duchies began churning out royal consorts by the conveyor belt to be allocated along sectarian lines. The British House of Hanover was almost completely ethnically German up until George VI wed the Anglo-Scot Elizabeth-Bowes-Lyon. The Bourbons also took the odd German wife, whereas the Russian tsars almost exclusively married Germans with the odd Dane thrown in for variety. The Austrians and Spanish as Habsburgs were already Germanic.

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  37. @J Yan
    That was my first thought. Brazil is the empirical and visual refutation of the blending of human traits. What the Brazilian gene pool does produce is outliers, such as she-can't-be-real Adriana Lima.

    Seems to be quite the opposite. Brazil shows thus that this blending of peoples doesn’t homogenize traits, but rather broadens the overall spectrum.

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  38. @Seth Largo
    Razib, which contemporary human groups are differentiated by the highest Fst measure?

    khoisan vs. oceanian or amerindian (due to drift in latter groups)

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  39. Razib i think perhaps higher diversity within groups might be reducing Fst?

    Yeah, I think it could be. In another Fst table (from – http://www.cell.com/cms/attachment/2024885076/2044551139/mmc1.pdf), Uyghurs who are usually modelled as about half East Eurasian and half West Eurasian, have Fst from French 0.35 and Georgians of 0.034, and Fst from Han of 0.33. Compared to Han who had an FST from both French and Georgians of 0.111.

    At the same time, for the Yoruba outgroup the Uyghur-Yoruba FST value was 0.145 vs French-Yoruba 0.152, Georgian-Yoruba 0.150 and Han-Yoruba 0.187.

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  40. Thank you all for the very useful discussion. I’ve long deduced from personal observations what Mr. Khan elaborated – so it’s good to have a concise academic explanation of the phenomenon.

    I have nothing scholarly to add, except to note for others (I am sure Mr. Khan knows this already) that I’ve seen Hazaras up close and personal, and that girl in the picture above is at one end of the spectrum. To me she looks very Tajik. Most Hazaras I ran into looked similar to Uzbeks (look half-half, if you will) in appearance. So while I fully grasp the notion of genetics as a discrete process, but one can easily see why the blending meme is so powerful in the popular imagination.

    And in any case, ethnic self-identification in Afghanistan is far from congruous with actual genetic composition. I recently ran into an Afghan Tajik guy running a restaurant in the DC area. He claimed he was Tajik and spoke Dari, but looked quite Mongolian. After about my fourth visit to the restaurant, he opened up a bit and finally volunteered that his grandmother was Uzbek, and that his father’s side also had some Uzbek ancestry. “But really, I am Tajik” were his last words on the subject.

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  41. Let me clarify something.

    Yes it is true that brazilians replicate a lot of phenotypes you may find around the world. It’s also a known fact that brazilian passports are valuable itens in the black market – because anybody can credibily claim to be brazilian. That’s because as Razib and others explained Brazil is a racial cauldron.

    But it’s also true that is a growing blending in Brazil. Here we have three kinds of mestizos (something we learn in the first years in school): “mulatos”, the mixing of white and black people; “cablocos”, the mixing of white and amerindian people; and “cafuzos”, the mixing of black and amerindian people. The mestizo population, that we call “pardos”, is growing census after census. Of course, century after century, mulatos, cafuzos and cablocos have been mixing also. The result is a kind of “generic brazilian” that you can see in the big cities – mostly at poor neighboorhoods but not only there. Maybe the most recognizable example of this look for non-brazilians is the soccer player Ronaldo:http://wp.clicrbs.com.br/atlantidasantacruz/files/2013/03/ronaldo.jpeg

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    • Replies: @Emilia
    You can also see similar 'generic Colombians' and 'generic Venezuelans' in places along the northern coast of both countries, where Africans, Europeans and Native Americans have blended together. Even places a bit more inland like Medellin, Colombia, have a sizable African genetic component, although going further away from the coasts, say in Bogota, the African component appears to be minor.

    But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?
  42. @Hermenauta
    Let me clarify something.

    Yes it is true that brazilians replicate a lot of phenotypes you may find around the world. It's also a known fact that brazilian passports are valuable itens in the black market - because anybody can credibily claim to be brazilian. That's because as Razib and others explained Brazil is a racial cauldron.

    But it's also true that is a growing blending in Brazil. Here we have three kinds of mestizos (something we learn in the first years in school): "mulatos", the mixing of white and black people; "cablocos", the mixing of white and amerindian people; and "cafuzos", the mixing of black and amerindian people. The mestizo population, that we call "pardos", is growing census after census. Of course, century after century, mulatos, cafuzos and cablocos have been mixing also. The result is a kind of "generic brazilian" that you can see in the big cities - mostly at poor neighboorhoods but not only there. Maybe the most recognizable example of this look for non-brazilians is the soccer player Ronaldo:http://wp.clicrbs.com.br/atlantidasantacruz/files/2013/03/ronaldo.jpeg

    You can also see similar ‘generic Colombians’ and ‘generic Venezuelans’ in places along the northern coast of both countries, where Africans, Europeans and Native Americans have blended together. Even places a bit more inland like Medellin, Colombia, have a sizable African genetic component, although going further away from the coasts, say in Bogota, the African component appears to be minor.

    But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?

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    • Replies: @Hermenauta
    "But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?"

    Emilia, it´s difficult to make predictions about that. What we know for sure is that the "ethnically pure" phenotipes will be increasingly a minority in Brazil. For example: 54% of the population were "white" in a 1999 census; this number decreased to 47% in 2011.

    Most municipalities where these people live are small cities, with no real career prospects to young people, so many youngsters flee (as Gisele herself is an example). That´s also true for other minorities, like the japanese. Brazil harbours the biggest japanese population outside Japan. But in the big cities, there are a lot of "mestizos", as traditional japanese values erode and intermarriage become more common. A lot of the "dekasseguis" _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).
  43. @Emilia
    You can also see similar 'generic Colombians' and 'generic Venezuelans' in places along the northern coast of both countries, where Africans, Europeans and Native Americans have blended together. Even places a bit more inland like Medellin, Colombia, have a sizable African genetic component, although going further away from the coasts, say in Bogota, the African component appears to be minor.

    But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?

    “But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?”

    Emilia, it´s difficult to make predictions about that. What we know for sure is that the “ethnically pure” phenotipes will be increasingly a minority in Brazil. For example: 54% of the population were “white” in a 1999 census; this number decreased to 47% in 2011.

    Most municipalities where these people live are small cities, with no real career prospects to young people, so many youngsters flee (as Gisele herself is an example). That´s also true for other minorities, like the japanese. Brazil harbours the biggest japanese population outside Japan. But in the big cities, there are a lot of “mestizos”, as traditional japanese values erode and intermarriage become more common. A lot of the “dekasseguis” _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    A lot of the “dekasseguis” _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).
     
    Even "pure" Japanese from Brazil face obstacles in Japan, so the tension as such is not just racial. The stereotype of Japanese-Brazilians in Japan is that they are loud, ill-mannered ("kissing and hugging each other boisterously"), lazy, and more criminally-prone. So the issue is also one of cultural differences real or otherwise. At least that's what the locals told me when I lived and worked in Japan.
  44. Brazil has a number of immigrant groups: Germans, Japanese, Italians, and even a ‘second wave’ of Portuguese who came more recently to the country. Other Latin America countries do too (for example, there is a ‘German town’ in Venezuela called Colonia Tovar just outside of Caracas), but it seems that only the southernmost part of the continent (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) has non-Spanish and non-Portuguese immigrants in significant number. Nonetheless, they appear fairly assimilated: from what I know, Gisele Bundchen doesn’t speak German fluently and she’s teaching her children Portuguese rather than German as a second language.

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    • Replies: @Hermenauta
    At least in Brazil, the original german and italian settlers where purposely deployed in latitudes where they would be more "confortable" (albeit in a state of servitude), and the weather pattern resembled that of their homeland. That´s possible in Brazil because the country spans many latitudes from the humid and hot Amazonia to the more temperate south. In the Rio Grande do Sul state (where Gisele comes from) you can find some small cities where people speaks a german (hunsrückisch) or italian (talian, that is mostly venetian) dialect in the streets. But 99,9% of them are bilingual (they speak portuguese also). Still, 6 of the 5.570 brazilian municipalities have Talian as a mandatory language in the schools, and 2 have given hunsrückisch an official status.

    There are also small enclaves of european immigrants (mostly german and italian, but also swiss and...finish!) in some mountainous regions of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo states, in the southeast.

  45. @Hermenauta
    "But do you think groups like the German communities in Southern Brazil (famous example: Gisele Bundchen) will ever blend significantly with the rest of the population?"

    Emilia, it´s difficult to make predictions about that. What we know for sure is that the "ethnically pure" phenotipes will be increasingly a minority in Brazil. For example: 54% of the population were "white" in a 1999 census; this number decreased to 47% in 2011.

    Most municipalities where these people live are small cities, with no real career prospects to young people, so many youngsters flee (as Gisele herself is an example). That´s also true for other minorities, like the japanese. Brazil harbours the biggest japanese population outside Japan. But in the big cities, there are a lot of "mestizos", as traditional japanese values erode and intermarriage become more common. A lot of the "dekasseguis" _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).

    A lot of the “dekasseguis” _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).

    Even “pure” Japanese from Brazil face obstacles in Japan, so the tension as such is not just racial. The stereotype of Japanese-Brazilians in Japan is that they are loud, ill-mannered (“kissing and hugging each other boisterously”), lazy, and more criminally-prone. So the issue is also one of cultural differences real or otherwise. At least that’s what the locals told me when I lived and worked in Japan.

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    • Replies: @Hermenauta
    Of course. But there is more than that. A dekassegui that looks more "japanese" will ever have more chances in Japan than a "mestizo".
  46. @Twinkie

    A lot of the “dekasseguis” _ descendants of japanese that go back to Japan to work _ aren´t ethnically pure, what is a source of tensions in Japan sometimes (but it seems that they still prefer to import japanese descendants than malays or philipinos).
     
    Even "pure" Japanese from Brazil face obstacles in Japan, so the tension as such is not just racial. The stereotype of Japanese-Brazilians in Japan is that they are loud, ill-mannered ("kissing and hugging each other boisterously"), lazy, and more criminally-prone. So the issue is also one of cultural differences real or otherwise. At least that's what the locals told me when I lived and worked in Japan.

    Of course. But there is more than that. A dekassegui that looks more “japanese” will ever have more chances in Japan than a “mestizo”.

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  47. @Emilia
    Brazil has a number of immigrant groups: Germans, Japanese, Italians, and even a 'second wave' of Portuguese who came more recently to the country. Other Latin America countries do too (for example, there is a 'German town' in Venezuela called Colonia Tovar just outside of Caracas), but it seems that only the southernmost part of the continent (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) has non-Spanish and non-Portuguese immigrants in significant number. Nonetheless, they appear fairly assimilated: from what I know, Gisele Bundchen doesn't speak German fluently and she's teaching her children Portuguese rather than German as a second language.

    At least in Brazil, the original german and italian settlers where purposely deployed in latitudes where they would be more “confortable” (albeit in a state of servitude), and the weather pattern resembled that of their homeland. That´s possible in Brazil because the country spans many latitudes from the humid and hot Amazonia to the more temperate south. In the Rio Grande do Sul state (where Gisele comes from) you can find some small cities where people speaks a german (hunsrückisch) or italian (talian, that is mostly venetian) dialect in the streets. But 99,9% of them are bilingual (they speak portuguese also). Still, 6 of the 5.570 brazilian municipalities have Talian as a mandatory language in the schools, and 2 have given hunsrückisch an official status.

    There are also small enclaves of european immigrants (mostly german and italian, but also swiss and…finish!) in some mountainous regions of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo states, in the southeast.

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    • Replies: @Emilia
    Very interesting how many places you can find Finns! In Canada, where I live, and in the United States, they tend to settle as a group in places like their original homeland. You don't find too many Finnish Americans in the American South, for example. Another interesting thing is that Italians who settled in South America, like, as you mention, the Venetians in Brazil, tend to be from Northern Italy, while in North America, they generally tend to be from Rome or south of that.

    Also, perhaps Blacks in South America were also deployed to places where they would be most comfortable weather-wise: that is, tropical places along the coasts (Caribbean Sea and Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). Brazil has the advantage of, as you said, spanning many latitudes and climatic zones. Thus you end up with both Sonia Braga and Gisele Bundchen: same country but very different phenotypes. That is not to say other countries don't have a variation of racial groups: as I said, Colombia has a large African component along its coasts and a more mestizo (European-Amerindian) element in the interior but does not have a large European immigrant population that Brazil does.
  48. @Hermenauta
    At least in Brazil, the original german and italian settlers where purposely deployed in latitudes where they would be more "confortable" (albeit in a state of servitude), and the weather pattern resembled that of their homeland. That´s possible in Brazil because the country spans many latitudes from the humid and hot Amazonia to the more temperate south. In the Rio Grande do Sul state (where Gisele comes from) you can find some small cities where people speaks a german (hunsrückisch) or italian (talian, that is mostly venetian) dialect in the streets. But 99,9% of them are bilingual (they speak portuguese also). Still, 6 of the 5.570 brazilian municipalities have Talian as a mandatory language in the schools, and 2 have given hunsrückisch an official status.

    There are also small enclaves of european immigrants (mostly german and italian, but also swiss and...finish!) in some mountainous regions of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo states, in the southeast.

    Very interesting how many places you can find Finns! In Canada, where I live, and in the United States, they tend to settle as a group in places like their original homeland. You don’t find too many Finnish Americans in the American South, for example. Another interesting thing is that Italians who settled in South America, like, as you mention, the Venetians in Brazil, tend to be from Northern Italy, while in North America, they generally tend to be from Rome or south of that.

    Also, perhaps Blacks in South America were also deployed to places where they would be most comfortable weather-wise: that is, tropical places along the coasts (Caribbean Sea and Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). Brazil has the advantage of, as you said, spanning many latitudes and climatic zones. Thus you end up with both Sonia Braga and Gisele Bundchen: same country but very different phenotypes. That is not to say other countries don’t have a variation of racial groups: as I said, Colombia has a large African component along its coasts and a more mestizo (European-Amerindian) element in the interior but does not have a large European immigrant population that Brazil does.

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    • Replies: @Hermenauta
    Emilia,

    Actually the Finn immigration was very small _ 298 souls, from 1927 to 1940. But they founded a little city, Penedo, at the foothills of Itatiaia Mountain in Rio de Janeiro state. Very scenery and touristical.

    Considering the blacks, I´m afraid that thermal comfort wasn´t the main concern of those who brought them to Brazil. It happens that the plantations where slavery thrived were mostly tropical plantantions, like sugarcane and coffee.

    Also, the European immigration to Brazil wasn´t something left to chance. The brazilian government of the time, with the backing of landowners, actively promoted immigration, due to economic (the search for skilled workforce, after the slavery abolition) but also "racial" considerations _ there was a very explicit purpose of "whitening" brazilian population.
  49. @Emilia
    Very interesting how many places you can find Finns! In Canada, where I live, and in the United States, they tend to settle as a group in places like their original homeland. You don't find too many Finnish Americans in the American South, for example. Another interesting thing is that Italians who settled in South America, like, as you mention, the Venetians in Brazil, tend to be from Northern Italy, while in North America, they generally tend to be from Rome or south of that.

    Also, perhaps Blacks in South America were also deployed to places where they would be most comfortable weather-wise: that is, tropical places along the coasts (Caribbean Sea and Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). Brazil has the advantage of, as you said, spanning many latitudes and climatic zones. Thus you end up with both Sonia Braga and Gisele Bundchen: same country but very different phenotypes. That is not to say other countries don't have a variation of racial groups: as I said, Colombia has a large African component along its coasts and a more mestizo (European-Amerindian) element in the interior but does not have a large European immigrant population that Brazil does.

    Emilia,

    Actually the Finn immigration was very small _ 298 souls, from 1927 to 1940. But they founded a little city, Penedo, at the foothills of Itatiaia Mountain in Rio de Janeiro state. Very scenery and touristical.

    Considering the blacks, I´m afraid that thermal comfort wasn´t the main concern of those who brought them to Brazil. It happens that the plantations where slavery thrived were mostly tropical plantantions, like sugarcane and coffee.

    Also, the European immigration to Brazil wasn´t something left to chance. The brazilian government of the time, with the backing of landowners, actively promoted immigration, due to economic (the search for skilled workforce, after the slavery abolition) but also “racial” considerations _ there was a very explicit purpose of “whitening” brazilian population.

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    • Replies: @Emilia
    Thank you for the information. I actually looked up Penedo right now - very fascinating. I'm actually of part Norwegian (of my many nationalities!) descent, and I know a lot of Finnish people through the local Scandinavian clubs - even if Finns' status as Scandinavians is somewhat dubious. I will tell them about Penedo if they do not know about it already.

    I think many neo-European countries had a 'whitening policy,' not just Brazil. For example, Australia had 'White Australia.' My own Canada wasn't too much more enlightened - for example, Chinese immigrants had to pay a 'head tax' to come to the country. Granted, Canada wasn't that much kinder to White immigrants. For instance, during World War II Canada turned back a ship of Jewish people fleeing the Holocaust, and even White Christian groups like the Irish and Ukrainians faced discrimination. Still, though, Brazil had a substantial non-White component, so the whitening only went so far. Canada, on the other hand, had a majority White population, a situation that, despite the immigration of people of non-European background, will probably be the case of a long time.

    I noticed that the Finnish immigrants in Penedo have a Lutheran church. I also know that some German immigrants and their descendants in Brazil are Lutheran (others of course are Catholic, like Gisele). What seems a bit odd, however, is that even though many Brazilians are leaving Catholicism for other religions, they don't seem to be drawn to the Protestant churches that are 'already there,' like the Lutherans, but instead seem to go to fundamentalist denominations.
  50. The linked article said “A few centuries from now, we’re all going to look like Brazilians”. I don’t think anyone knows what, if anything, will be around in 200 years. The elite may be able to choose exactly what their children will look like by then. I suppose there could be reasons for them to choose a Brazilian look.

    There is a dopamine receptor associated with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and risk taking that a study tentatively associated with interracial mating. Attitude to interracial dating didn’t predict having it. I think there will be much more interracial dating. But the proportion of the population with mixed parentage may not increase commensurately.

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    p-values in the publishleable but probably not true (as in causal) range for this sort of study.
  51. @Sean
    The linked article said "A few centuries from now, we’re all going to look like Brazilians". I don't think anyone knows what, if anything, will be around in 200 years. The elite may be able to choose exactly what their children will look like by then. I suppose there could be reasons for them to choose a Brazilian look.

    There is a dopamine receptor associated with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and risk taking that a study tentatively associated with interracial mating. Attitude to interracial dating didn't predict having it. I think there will be much more interracial dating. But the proportion of the population with mixed parentage may not increase commensurately.

    p-values in the publishleable but probably not true (as in causal) range for this sort of study.

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    • Replies: @Sean

    But for the majority of the citizenry of the old nations such considerations will be theoretical. The initial period of synthesis and cross-fertilization will give way to stasis as all those open to the new possibilities of finding mates across old racial categories will have done so.
     

    The Dopamine D4 Receptor Gene (DRD4) Moderates Cultural Difference in Independent Versus Interdependent Social OrientationThis cultural difference was significantly more pronounced for carriers of the 7- or 2-repeat alleles than for noncarriers. Indeed, no cultural difference was apparent among the noncarriers. Implications for potential coevolution of genes and culture are discussed. [...] It might be the case that the 7R and 2R alleles are associated with greater acquisition of culturally sanctioned social orientations under generally favorable conditions of socialization, such as careful guidance and scaffolding of norm-congruous behaviors by socialization agents (e.g., parents, relatives, neighbors), but with markedly different, deviant behaviors (e.g., delinquency and risk proneness) under unfavorable social conditions or adversity, which might “reward” externalization or risk taking. (Kitayama et al., 2014)
     
    As I read it, the 7R could have a strong endogamous or exogamous effect depending on whether their community has a pro-exogamous ethos. I am not sure about the lower orders of society diverging. It seems to me that, over time, people tend to adopt the elite view.
  52. @Hermenauta
    Emilia,

    Actually the Finn immigration was very small _ 298 souls, from 1927 to 1940. But they founded a little city, Penedo, at the foothills of Itatiaia Mountain in Rio de Janeiro state. Very scenery and touristical.

    Considering the blacks, I´m afraid that thermal comfort wasn´t the main concern of those who brought them to Brazil. It happens that the plantations where slavery thrived were mostly tropical plantantions, like sugarcane and coffee.

    Also, the European immigration to Brazil wasn´t something left to chance. The brazilian government of the time, with the backing of landowners, actively promoted immigration, due to economic (the search for skilled workforce, after the slavery abolition) but also "racial" considerations _ there was a very explicit purpose of "whitening" brazilian population.

    Thank you for the information. I actually looked up Penedo right now – very fascinating. I’m actually of part Norwegian (of my many nationalities!) descent, and I know a lot of Finnish people through the local Scandinavian clubs – even if Finns’ status as Scandinavians is somewhat dubious. I will tell them about Penedo if they do not know about it already.

    I think many neo-European countries had a ‘whitening policy,’ not just Brazil. For example, Australia had ‘White Australia.’ My own Canada wasn’t too much more enlightened – for example, Chinese immigrants had to pay a ‘head tax’ to come to the country. Granted, Canada wasn’t that much kinder to White immigrants. For instance, during World War II Canada turned back a ship of Jewish people fleeing the Holocaust, and even White Christian groups like the Irish and Ukrainians faced discrimination. Still, though, Brazil had a substantial non-White component, so the whitening only went so far. Canada, on the other hand, had a majority White population, a situation that, despite the immigration of people of non-European background, will probably be the case of a long time.

    I noticed that the Finnish immigrants in Penedo have a Lutheran church. I also know that some German immigrants and their descendants in Brazil are Lutheran (others of course are Catholic, like Gisele). What seems a bit odd, however, is that even though many Brazilians are leaving Catholicism for other religions, they don’t seem to be drawn to the Protestant churches that are ‘already there,’ like the Lutherans, but instead seem to go to fundamentalist denominations.

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  53. @Razib Khan
    p-values in the publishleable but probably not true (as in causal) range for this sort of study.

    But for the majority of the citizenry of the old nations such considerations will be theoretical. The initial period of synthesis and cross-fertilization will give way to stasis as all those open to the new possibilities of finding mates across old racial categories will have done so.

    The Dopamine D4 Receptor Gene (DRD4) Moderates Cultural Difference in Independent Versus Interdependent Social OrientationThis cultural difference was significantly more pronounced for carriers of the 7- or 2-repeat alleles than for noncarriers. Indeed, no cultural difference was apparent among the noncarriers. Implications for potential coevolution of genes and culture are discussed. [...] It might be the case that the 7R and 2R alleles are associated with greater acquisition of culturally sanctioned social orientations under generally favorable conditions of socialization, such as careful guidance and scaffolding of norm-congruous behaviors by socialization agents (e.g., parents, relatives, neighbors), but with markedly different, deviant behaviors (e.g., delinquency and risk proneness) under unfavorable social conditions or adversity, which might “reward” externalization or risk taking. (Kitayama et al., 2014)

    As I read it, the 7R could have a strong endogamous or exogamous effect depending on whether their community has a pro-exogamous ethos. I am not sure about the lower orders of society diverging. It seems to me that, over time, people tend to adopt the elite view.

    Read More
  54. […] mix will do so, taking with them their xenophilic dispositions. The suggestion prompted a commenter to question whether there was any evidence that preferences for (racial) endogamy had, as seemingly presumed by […]

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